tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068/articlesIs Australia Full? – The Conversation2017-07-14T03:16:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/774032017-07-14T03:16:15Z2017-07-14T03:16:15ZBlaming migrants won’t solve Western Sydney’s growing pains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169296/original/file-20170515-7011-86autq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many people in culturally diverse populations in Western Sydney have lived in Australia for many years, if not several generations.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
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<p>Western Sydney is one of the fastest-growing regions in Australia. It’s also one of the most culturally and linguistically diverse, as a key arrival point for refugees and new migrants when they first settle in Australia.</p>
<p>Various <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberal-candidate-links-asylum-seekers-to-traffic-jams-and-hospital-queues-20130902-2t1kw.html">public</a> <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/mark-latham-immigration-is-destroying-housing-affordability-we-need-an-australiafirst-migration-program/news-story/f5597b09f8e449aa5e32985ac93cb700">figures</a> and <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4182366/Iraq-Syria-refugees-warned-no-Australia.html">media</a> outlets have connected asylum-seeker intake and immigration to traffic congestion and queues at hospitals in Western Sydney. </p>
<p>However, this kind of reaction can pin the blame for infrastructure and affordability problems on culturally diverse populations who may have already lived in Australia for many years, if not several generations.</p>
<h2>Growth from international and domestic migration</h2>
<p>Greater Western Sydney includes Blacktown, the Blue Mountains, Camden,
Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Fairfield
Hawkesbury, Liverpool, Parramatta, Penrith, the Hills Shire and Wollondilly.</p>
<p>We examined census data <a href="http://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016">compiled by WESTIR Ltd</a>, a non-profit research organisation based in Western Sydney, partly funded by the NSW Department of Family and Community Services. These data <a href="http://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016">show</a> that Greater Western Sydney’s population increased by 9.8% between 2011 and 2016. Over the decade from 2006 to 2016, it grew by 16%. </p>
<p>About <a href="http://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016">55%</a> of those living there were born in Australia, and about 39% where born elsewhere (the remainder did not state their place of birth). Most put English or Australian as their first response when asked about their ancestry.</p>
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<p>New births are slightly down in the region, meaning growth is coming from other sources. This includes new international migration arrivals, but also incoming residents from other parts of New South Wales and interstate.</p>
<p>Greater Western Sydney has long-established cultural and linguistic diversity. The percentage of residents born overseas has increased from 34.1% in 2006 to 38.7% in 2016. Overall, the west accounts for 50.2% of the overseas-born population for the whole of metropolitan Sydney.</p>
<p>Reasoned debates on sustainable migration intake levels are a crucial part of discussions of urban and regional growth. There are valid criticisms of “Big Australia” policies, based on resource and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>But while the number of new arrivals settling in Western Sydney has increased steadily since the second world war, with a significant jump over the last decade reflecting accelerated skilled migration policies to fill labour shortages, the majority of overseas-born living in the region are long-term settlers who have been in Australia for ten years or more. </p>
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<h2>Increasing diversity does not always mean more new migrant settlers</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016">data</a> show that 64% of Western Sydney residents have at least one parent born overseas. This is greater than the number of those born overseas. This correlates with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/27/australia-reaches-tipping-point-with-quarter-of-population-born-overseas">national</a> data indicating that Australian-born second-generation migrant residents outnumber those born outside of Australia. </p>
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<p>So while critics may look at non-white Western Sydney residents and assume they are recent migrants, what they’re often really seeing is multiple generations of multiculturalism. Most of these people are long-term local residents, not necessarily a sudden influx of new arrivals.</p>
<p>In addition, not all overseas-born residents are permanent settlers. Australia takes far larger numbers of temporary entrants than it has in the past. Most of these temporary visa holders, such as international students and temporary skilled workers, live in major metropolitan areas and their surrounds, like Western Sydney.</p>
<p>While some portion of these populations do stay on longer-term, they are not all permanent settlers who will add to long-term population growth. <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/how-many-migrants-come-to-australia-each-year">Net migration figures</a>, which take into account people who depart Australia every year as well as arrive, and exclude short-term visitors, have generally been decreasing over the past six years. </p>
<h2>Who do we define as ‘migrants’?</h2>
<p>New Zealand citizens moving under Trans-Tasman agreements and migrants from the United Kingdom are still among the largest migrant groups in Greater Western Sydney. </p>
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<p>In many local government areas in Western Sydney – such as Wollondilly, the Hills Shire, Penrith, Hawkesbury and Campbelltown – England and/or New Zealand feature in the top five countries of birth of overseas-born residents. </p>
<p>If anxieties about migration and population in Western Sydney are based on genuine sustainability concerns and not xenophobia, why target mostly refugees and non-white migrants? Why focus only on areas with large non-white and non-English-speaking background populations?</p>
<h2>Migrants do use infrastructure, but also drive economic and jobs growth</h2>
<p>It’s never as simple as one new arrival “using up” an allocation of limited resources, whether jobs, housing, or seats on trains. In fact, new arrivals fill the gaps of an ageing workforce, and current migration policies are targeted to favour younger migrants and specific skills shortages.</p>
<p>Western Sydney, like many regions in Australia, has an ageing population. Residents aged 65-74 years increased from 6.2% in 2011 to 7.2% in 2016. </p>
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<p>Large-scale infrastructure – whether the slated new airport or the Westmead hospital – requires young and often skilled workers.</p>
<p>Nationally, recently arrived overseas-born residents have a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/27/australia-reaches-tipping-point-with-quarter-of-population-born-overseas">lower median age</a> and a <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake/report/migrant-intake-report.pdf">higher level of education</a> than Australian-born residents.</p>
<p>Infrastructure problems are also problems of policy, planning and funding, rather than just population numbers. Problems in transport and health infrastructure in Western Sydney cannot be easily solved by reactive anti-immigration attitudes or policies. </p>
<p>Cuts to programs like the humanitarian program or skilled temporary work visas, where the intake numbers remain relatively small as a proportion of the overall population, will not solve those infrastructure problems.</p>
<p>Western Sydney is growing, and with growth comes growing pains. But equating the region’s rich cultural diversity with a population crisis is the wrong message to send.</p>
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<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shanthi Robertson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristine Aquino has undertaken research with WESTIR Ltd. in the past. </span></em></p>Reasoned debates on sustainable migration intake levels are important. But transport and health infrastructure shortfalls in Western Sydney won’t be solved by reactive anti-immigration attitudes.Shanthi Robertson, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney UniversityKristine Aquino, Lecturer in Global Studies, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/764602017-07-12T20:05:07Z2017-07-12T20:05:07ZHow many people can Australia feed?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176374/original/file-20170630-8242-orj89c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia might have been 'built on the sheep's back' but we can't eat off it.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/stanzim/34829913702/">Stanley Zimny/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
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<p>Australia feeds a lot of people. As a big country with a relatively small population, we have just over two arable hectares per person, one of the <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4691e.pdf">highest ratios in the world</a>. Our diverse soils and climate provide a wide variety of fresh food all year round. </p>
<p>Historically we produce far more than we consume domestically. We sell <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezproxy.library.uq.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0308521X15300482">around 65% of farm production</a> overseas, making Australia a leading food-exporting nation. We therefore contribute to the food security not just of Australia, but of many other nations. </p>
<p>However, despite being a net food exporter, Australia also imports foods such as coffee, chocolate, processed fruit and vegetables, and key ingredients used in baking our daily bread. We are part of a global food system. </p>
<p>How will a swelling population, projected to reach <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3222.0main+features32012%20(base)%20to%202101">between 36.8 million and 48.3 million</a> by 2061, affect our food security? Are we set up to weather the storm of climate change, the degradation of our natural resources, and competition for land and water use from mining and urban expansion? </p>
<h2>By the numbers</h2>
<p>Current Australian government policy is to increase agricultural production and food exports, with a specific focus on <a href="http://northernaustralia.gov.au/">developing Australia’s north</a>. </p>
<p>In addition to providing food and nutrition security, the Australian food sector is a key driver of public health, environment, the economy and employment. The <a href="http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/agcomd9abcc004/agcomd9abcc20170307_0S6mp/AgCommodities201703_v1.0.0.pdf">gross value of production</a> from Australia’s 135,000 farmers varies between A$55 billion and A$64 billion a year, with exports accounting for between A$45 billion and A$48 billion. </p>
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<p>Horticultural production (fruit, nuts and vegetables) will swell as Australian growers move to satisfy growing Asian demand. </p>
<p>Australian food processing companies add a further A$32 billion of value from 150 large food processors. We exported $A26 billion worth of processed food and beverages in 2015-16 and imported A$16.8 billion, resulting in a <a href="http://www.afgc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/AFGC_State-of-the-Industry-2016.pdf">trade surplus of A$9.1 billion</a> (rounded to one decimal place). </p>
<p>The food retail sector has an annual turnover around A$126 billion, with about <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-our-grocery-market-one-of-the-most-concentrated-in-the-world-16520">70% of Australians</a> shopping at Woolworths or Coles. It’s also worth noting that considerable land and water resources are devoted to non-food commodities such as forestry, cotton and wool, and to environmental outcomes such as carbon sequestration or biodiversity plantings.</p>
<p>One in seven Australian jobs (1.6 million) are in the <a href="http://www.nff.org.au/farm-facts.html">farm-dependent economy</a>, and food and beverage processing employs around <a href="http://www.afgc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/AFGC_State-of-the-Industry-2016.pdf">one-third of all Australian manufacturing workers</a>, with promising growth prospects. </p>
<p>Many jobs are seasonal and based in the regions. Farm and food enterprises rely on foreign workers for many key tasks, resulting in the food sector being <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-migrant-workers-are-critical-to-the-future-of-australias-agricultural-industry-66422">particularly sensitive</a> to changes in temporary work visas. </p>
<h2>How to feed more people</h2>
<p>If Australia reaches its <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3222.0main+features32012%20(base)%20to%202101">projected population of between 36.8 million and 48.3 million by 2061</a>, could we feed everyone?</p>
<p>For the sake of this exercise, let’s leave aside food we import, and assume that Australia will continue to export <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezproxy.library.uq.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0308521X15300482">65% of the food we produce</a>. </p>
<p>Currently, our exports feed (at least in part) 36.6 million people outside Australia. If we add that to our domestic population, 61 million people will eat Australian food in 2017. </p>
<p>If we apply the same assumptions to projected high and low Australian populations for 2061, we arrive at a total (domestic plus export) population fed by Australian production of 92 million to 121 million, or an increase of 51-98%.</p>
<p>Could Australia double the number of people we feed by 2061? The answer is yes, but not simply by doubling the amount of food we produce. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezproxy.library.uq.edu.au/science/article/pii/S2211912414000327">Three broad strategies</a> will need to be integrated to reach this target:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Increase food productivity.</strong> We need to aim for 2% growth in annual food production by increasing investment research and development for food and agriculture. For comparison, between 1949 and 2012 we have averaged 2.1% annual growth, although from <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/roiw.12250/epdf">2000-12 that slumped to 0.6%</a>. Achieving this productivity target will be difficult, given the challenge of climate change and other constraining factors.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Reduce food waste.</strong> We currently waste around <a href="http://www.foodwise.com.au/foodwaste/food-waste-fast-facts/">30% of the food we produce</a>. Reducing food waste benefits the environment and the economy. This strategy requires ongoing improvements in supply chain efficiency, changes in marketing, and consumer education.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Change our eating patterns.</strong> Moving towards sustainable diets will improve public health and environment outcomes. Reducing overconsumption (a contributor to obesity) and eating more vegetables and less discretionary “junk” foods represent <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezproxy.library.uq.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0921800916303615">initial steps</a> in this direction.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The next few decades will present unprecedented challenges and opportunities for the Australian food sector. Placing the consumer at the centre of healthy, sustainable and ethical food systems will be increasingly important, whether that consumer lives in Brisbane or Beijing. New ways of connecting consumers to producers will become commonplace, creating more informed and empowered consumers, and rewarding innovation. </p>
<p>Research highlighting the <a href="http://gci.uq.edu.au/filething/get/13919/Discussion-Paper-food-systems-No1-V6-30JUNE2016-FINAL-LR.pdf">interconnections between food, health and environment</a> will be required to support Australia’s claims to being a clean, green provider of food. </p>
<p>It’s easy to conclude that Australia can feed many more people than we currently do, but the real issue is to do this while ensuring our food system is healthy, sustainable and fair. Ultimately, exporting the research, technology and education that underpin our future food system will benefit far more people than those directly consuming food produced in Australia.</p>
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<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Bellotti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia feeds tens of millions, at home and abroad. But if our population doubles by 2061, as some projections suggest, we’ll need some smart strategies to keep those people fed.Bill Bellotti, Professor and Director Food Systems Program, Global Change Institute, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783912017-07-10T20:09:43Z2017-07-10T20:09:43ZWhy a population of, say, 15 million makes sense for Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175791/original/file-20170627-6086-5kjhd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Our national wellbeing probably peaked with Australia's population at roughly 15 million in the 1970s, when this photo was taken in Hunters Hill, Sydney.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/25653307@N03/6279325699/in/photolist-ayTbLc-9jVykb-b8CBWr-9jUPPA-eYAXYz-9jPaec-bQGxtv-dFLngH-4A8shV-6tRuSc-pqsoFs-9HbTLb-caNvvy-dB7uNS-kh7sYz-8ejwNo-dB228t-ShpFfm-JwJ4te-bwTdNK-9YY4jb-9jRwaH-aziKk4-dFRF6y-7fHKqf-dFL9mH-qBeMkD-dFRkao-nXbNcT-9kRFC4-gApBdF-nQXTLE-bJFwaB-dFRKsf-nZuAo9-dFL3dX-4yYeym-8SU8SP-9wZYRg-nF1CK8-T7b1ei-5xP4Fs-RvBbmQ-8qLds4-4Bvr7C-fAqfWM-pYCnGr-aeFoQd-abiVVs-7K7F36">John Ward/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
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<p>Neither of Australia’s two main political parties believes population is an issue worth discussion, and neither currently has a policy about it. The Greens <a href="http://greens.org.au/policies/population">think population is an issue</a>, but can’t come at actually suggesting a target. </p>
<p>Even those who acknowledge that numbers are relevant are often quick to say that it’s our consumption patterns, and not our population size, that really matter when we talk about environmental impact. But common sense, not to mention the laws of physics, says that size and scale matter, especially on a finite planet.</p>
<p>In the meantime the nation has a bipartisan default population policy, which is one of <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/factbook-2015-1-en/evopop_g1.html?contentType=%2fns%2fStatisticalPublication%2c%2fns%2fChapter&itemId=%2fcontent%2fchapter%2ffactbook-2015-1-en&mimeType=text%2fhtml&containerItemId=%2fcontent%2fserial%2f18147364&accessItemIds=&option6=imprint&value6=http%3a%2f%2foecd.metastore.ingenta.com%2fcontent%2fimprint%2foecd&_csp_=4c076bdd9393ccf0422808ed2ced01cf">rapid growth</a>. This is in response to the demands of what is effectively a coalition of major corporate players and lobby groups. </p>
<p>Solid neoliberals all, they see all growth as good, especially for their bottom line. They include the banks and financial sector, real estate developers, the housing industry, major retailers, the media and other major players for whom an endless increase in customers is possible and profitable.</p>
<p>However, Australians stubbornly <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3301.0Main%20Features42014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3301.0&issue=2014&num=&view=">continue to have small families</a>. The endless growth coalition responds by demanding the government import hundreds of thousands of new consumers annually, otherwise known as the <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/hindi/en/article/2017/05/10/2017-2018-skilled-migration-intake-announced">migration intake</a>. </p>
<p>The growth coalition has no real interest in the cumulative social or environmental downside effects of this growth, nor the actual welfare of the immigrants. They fully expect to capture the profit of this growth program, while the disadvantages, such as <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2012/files/report_127.pdf">traffic congestion</a>, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/sep/pdf/bu-0915-3.pdf">rising house prices</a> and government <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/135517/subdr156-infrastructure.pdf">revenue diverted for infrastructure catch-up</a>, are all socialised – that is, the taxpayer pays. </p>
<p>The leaders of this well-heeled group are well insulated personally from the downsides of growth that the rest of us deal with daily.</p>
<h2>A better measure of wellbeing than GDP</h2>
<p>The idea that population growth is essential to boost GDP, and that this is good for everyone, is ubiquitous and goes largely unchallenged. For example, according to Treasury’s <a href="http://archive.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/">2010 Intergenerational Report</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Economic growth will be supported by sound policies that support productivity, participation and population — the ‘3Ps’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If one defines “economic growth” in the first place by saying that’s what happens when you have more and more people consuming, then obviously more and more people produce growth. </p>
<p>The fact that GDP, our main measure of growth, might be an utterly <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/beyond-gdp-13319">inadequate and inappropriate yardstick</a> for our times remains a kooky idea to most economists, both in business and government.</p>
<h2>Genuine progress peaked 40 years ago</h2>
<p>One of the oldest and best-researched alternative measures is the <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/DP14_8.pdf">Genuine Progress Indicator</a> (GPI). Based on the work of the American economist Herman Daly in the 1970s and ’80s, GPI takes into account different measures of human wellbeing, grouped into economic, environmental and social categories. </p>
<p>Examples on the negative side of the ledger include income inequality, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, water pollution, loss of biodiversity and the misery of car accidents. </p>
<p>On the positive side, and also left out of GDP, are the value of household work, parenting, unpaid child and aged care, volunteer work, the quality of education, the value of consumer goods lasting longer, and so on. The overall GPI measure, expressed in dollars, takes 26 such factors into account.</p>
<p>Since it is grounded in the real world and our real experience, GPI is a better indicator than GDP of how satisfactory we find our daily lives, of our level of contentment, and of our general level of wellbeing.</p>
<p>As it happens, there is quite good data on GPI going back decades for some countries. While global GDP (and GDP per capita) continued to grow strongly after the second world war, and continues today, global GPI basically stalled in 1970 and has <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800913001584">barely improved since</a>.</p>
<p>In Australia the stall point <a href="http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/sustainable-welfare-in-the-asia-pacific?___website=uk_warehouse">appears to be about 1974</a>. GPI is now lower than for any period since the early 1960s. That is, our wellbeing, if we accept that GPI is a fair measure of the things that make life most worthwhile, has been going backwards for decades.</p>
<h2>What has all the growth been for?</h2>
<p>It is reasonable to ask, therefore, what exactly has been the point of the huge growth in GDP and population in Australia since that time if our level of wellbeing has declined. </p>
<p>What is an economy for, if not to improve our wellbeing? Why exactly have we done so much damage to our water resources, soil, the liveability of our cities and to the other species with which we share this continent if we haven’t really improved our lives by doing it?</p>
<p>As alluded to earlier, the answer lies to a large extent in the disastrous neoliberal experiment foisted upon us. Yet many Australians understand that it is entirely valid to measure the success of our society by the wellbeing of its citizens and its careful husbandry of natural capital.</p>
<p>At the peak of GPI in Australia in the mid-1970s our population was <a href="http://www.populstat.info/Oceania/australc.htm">under 15 million</a>. Here then, perhaps, is a sensible, optimal population size for Australia operating under the current economic system, since any larger number simply fails to deliver a net benefit to most citizens. </p>
<p>It suggests that we have just had 40 years of unnecessary, ideologically-driven growth at an immense and unjustifiable cost to our natural and social capital. In addition, all indications are that this path is unsustainable.</p>
<p>With Australian female fertility sitting well below replacement level, we can achieve a slow and natural return to a lower population of our choice without any drastic or coercive policies. This can be done simply by winding back the large and expensive program of importing consumers to generate GDP growth – currently <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/ReportsandPublications/Documents/statistics/nom-september-2016.pdf">around 200,000 people per year</a> and forecast to increase to almost 250,000 by 2020. </p>
<p>Despite endless political and media obfuscation, this is an entirely different issue from assisting refugees, with whom we can afford to be much more generous.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78391/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin is affiliated with the Wakefield Futures Group, a new non-profit and currently penniless national group of senior and/or retired academics (mostly) focused on the components of sustainability and what might be involved in society achieving a sustainable, desirable future. The group is currently assisting the South Australian Government to examine the potential of the General Progress Indicator as a measure of human wellbeing in that jurisdiction. He is president of the SA branch of Sustainable Population Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Ward receives funding from various sources including local and state government, although he has received no funding for his work on population. He is National President of Sustainable Population Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Sutton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s GPI, a broad measure of national wellbeing, has stalled since 1974. So what has been the point of huge population and GDP growth since then if we and our environment are no better off?Peter Graham Martin, Lecturer, School of Natural & Built Environments, University of South AustraliaJames Ward, Lecturer in Water & Environmental Engineering, University of South AustraliaPaul Sutton, Professor, Department of Geography and the Environment, University of DenverLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783352017-07-10T20:09:23Z2017-07-10T20:09:23ZFive lessons from Tokyo, a city of 38m people, for Australia, a nation of 24m<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177244/original/file-20170706-18401-1osijpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tokyo, seen here from the Skytree tower, is home to more people than any other city on Earth but has managed to remain highly liveable.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The release of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2071.0">2016 Census data</a> provides a good opportunity to reflect on the future growth of Australian cities. And what better example of the future to use than Tokyo? </p>
<p>Frequently the subject of <a href="https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/05/the-night-streets-of-tokyo-captured-blade-runner-style/484883/">futuristic visions</a>, the city went through one of the world’s most rapid post-war population growth periods. The <a href="http://metrocosm.com/how-many-u-s-cities-can-you-fit-inside-tokyo/">Greater Tokyo area</a> has a <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/tokyo-population/">population of 38 million</a> – almost 60% more than the <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2016-reveals-australia-is-becoming-much-more-diverse-but-can-we-trust-the-data-79835">population of Australia</a>. Yet Tokyo remains one of the world’s <a href="https://monocle.com/film/affairs/most-liveable-city-2016-tokyo/">most liveable metropolises</a>. </p>
<p>How can Australian cities replicate this <a href="https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/the-worlds-most-liveable-cities">conjuring feat</a> while retaining their own <a href="https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=liveability2016">high levels of liveability</a>? We identify five lessons from Tokyo’s experience.</p>
<h2>Lesson 1: manage urban growing pains</h2>
<p>Tokyo was devastated at the end of the second world war. The city experienced rapid rebuilding and growth. The population of the central Tokyo prefecture, which is <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/tokyo-population/">home to 13.5 million people</a>, increased <a href="http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/ABOUT/HISTORY/history03.htm">from 3.5 million in 1945 to 11.6 million</a> in 1975. </p>
<p>This 30-year growth spurt happened at a rate almost twice that predicted for Greater Melbourne, for example, from 4.4 million today <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiSyab8t_PUAhUGn5QKHTVZDrMQFggmMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Ffuture-melbourne%2Fhow-were-preparing-for-melbournes-population-to-top-8-million%2Fnews-story%2Fb66db8e05d1deedbb7c1cf2733ffcdff&usg=AFQjCNFwT7khxQPGqavcL4N-Wicjq46K4w">to 8 million by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>Tokyo’s rapid growth had a number of negative impacts. These included very significant <a href="http://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/en/pollution/">environmental pollution</a>. The basic approach during this period was to grow first and clean up later. </p>
<p>The consequence for Tokyo was disorganised patterns of urban development – sprawl. The answer involved tighter planning controls and <a href="http://www.toshiseibi.metro.tokyo.jp/pdf_e/021.pdf">land re-adjustment programs</a> to improve environmental conditions and ensure infrastructure was effective. </p>
<p>The lesson here for Australian cities is that, in the face of rapid population growth, better forward planning is the only way to avoid or minimise <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-planning-suffers-growth-pains-of-australias-population-boom-75930">negative side effects</a>.</p>
<h2>Lesson 2: Introduce metropolitan governance</h2>
<p>A critical factor in Tokyo’s liveability is the role of metropolitan governance in ensuring good planning and co-ordination. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/index.htm">Tokyo Metropolitan Government</a> was established in 1943. In contrast, for Australian cities a metropolitan level of co-ordination is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/metropolitan-governance-is-the-missing-link-in-australias-reform-agenda-55872">exception rather than the rule</a>. With Greater Melbourne, for example, the <a href="https://vpa.vic.gov.au">Victorian Planning Authority</a> plays an important role but <a href="https://theconversation.com/towards-a-collaborative-city-the-case-for-a-melbourne-metropolitan-commission-57578">lacks oversight from local political representatives</a>. The governor and the assembly members in the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, on the other hand, are accountable to the electorate.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177043/original/file-20170706-26471-kxtsps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tokyo’s governor, pictured campaigning for the July 2 assembly elections, is one of the most powerful politicians in Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Tokyo government also has considerable political autonomy since it generates 70% of its revenue from local taxation. In 2014, it had a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Metropolitan_Government">budget of ¥13 trillion</a> (A$151 billion) – on a par with Sweden’s. This makes the governor of Tokyo one of the most powerful politicians in Japan, second only to the prime minister.</p>
<p>The Tokyo government’s approach has always involved strong interventionist policy and considerable emphasis on infrastructure development, with a reliance on <a href="http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/ABOUT/CITY_VIEW/FILES/4_CITYVIEWTOKYO.pdf">public-private partnerships to get results</a>. </p>
<h2>Lesson 3: Commit early to world-class public transport</h2>
<p>Public-private partnerships to develop metropolitan railways has been a standard approach in Japanese cities for most of the 20th century and continues to underpin Tokyo’s success as a global city. For example, the Mitsubishi Corporation played an instrumental role in developing the Marunouchi district around Tokyo Station. The latter was built in 1914 and connected intercity stations in a loop <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=LomFAgAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=mitsubishi%20corporation%20andre%20sorensen%20japanese%20planning&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false">decades before other cities</a>. </p>
<p>These public-private interventions have cemented Tokyo’s status as a <a href="http://www.newgeography.com/content/002923-the-evolving-urban-form-tokyo">transit-oriented metropolis</a>. The city has by far the highest public transport usage in the world. </p>
<p>Compared to other major cities like Seoul, London, New York and Beijing, Tokyoites rely far more heavily on public transport, cycling or walking to <a href="https://www.lta.gov.sg/ltaacademy/doc/J14Nov_p54ReferenceModeShares.pdf">get around</a>. In Tokyo prefecture, <a href="http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/ABOUT/CITY_VIEW/FILES/6_CITYVIEWTOKYO.pdf">rail accounts for 48% of trips</a>, bus 3%, cycling 14% and walking 23%. Private car use accounts for only 12% of trips. </p>
<p>A continuous investment in rail networks above and below ground would ensure Australian cities can better accommodate predicted population growth. A <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2017/05/17/melbourne-subway-map-rail-fantasy/">fascinating map</a> designed by Adam Mattinson shows what a subway system for Melbourne could look like based on the Tokyo model. To achieve this may require that the tram system moves underground – almost certainly a pipe dream. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177246/original/file-20170706-14401-1go3ieu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Tokyo prefecture, 48% of trips are by rail as everyone lives within ten minutes’ walk of the subway station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett, Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lesson 4: Decarbonise the economy as it grows</h2>
<p>Tokyo was lucky to be able to grow rapidly in an era when climate change was not the recognised problem that it is today.</p>
<p>The challenge for Australian cities will be to grow their economies while reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to match the <a href="http://www.hopesandfears.com/hopes/city/city_index/216917-city-index-carbon-emissions">per capita levels for Tokyo</a>, and then to cut them much further. The World Bank calculated that, <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTUWM/Resources/GHG_Index_Mar_9_2011.pdf">in 2006</a>, per-capita emissions for Sydney were 20.3 tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub> compared to 4.89 tonnes for Tokyo.</p>
<p>Tokyo is also seeking to cut its emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2000. In Australia, <a href="http://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au">Plan Melbourne</a>, for example, aims to achieve a target of net zero emissions by 2050 even while the population continues to grow. </p>
<p>While investments in low-carbon public transport will be central to meeting this target, it is also essential to pursue ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy targets. </p>
<p>Tokyo is aiming for a 38% drop in energy consumption and a rise in renewable energy from 8.7% in 2014 to 30% of electricity generation <a href="http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/ABOUT/ENVIRONMENTAL_POLICY/FILES/04_2030_Goals.pdf">in 2030</a>. The good news is that Plan Melbourne sets a target for renewables of 40% of electricity generation by 2025. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177251/original/file-20170706-15136-1k4b1j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a decarbonising city, mothers ride electric cycles with babies and shopping on board.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lesson 5: Prepare to age with dignity</h2>
<p>Along with declining emissions intensity, Tokyo’s population is likely to start shrinking. The population of central Tokyo is expected to rise from 13.5 million today and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9519203/Tokyo-population-to-halve-in-next-90-years.html">peak in 2020</a> before declining to 7.1 million by 2100. The population of Greater Tokyo is expected to <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/tokyo-population/">peak around 38.5 million</a> about the same time. </p>
<p>The population of Australian cities will plateau at some point, as in Tokyo. The next lesson would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/japan-offers-us-many-lessons-in-embracing-longevity-51913">how to deal with an ageing demographic</a> and potential population decline. </p>
<p>As recently argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-ownership-remains-strong-in-australia-but-it-masks-other-problems-census-data-80068">based on the census</a>, a result of declining home ownership is the likelihood of couples deferring the decision to have children. A knock-on effect could therefore be a more rapidly ageing Australian population.</p>
<p>The Tokyo of today is certainly no utopia, due to its vulnerability to earthquakes and other <a href="http://www.bousai.metro.tokyo.jp/foreign/english/">natural disasters</a>, high house prices, homelessness, rising inequality, a lack of multiculturalism and a proportion of housing as rental accommodation that dwarfs Australia’s (<a href="http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/chiiki/Welcome.do">47.9%</a> compared to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2071.0">30.9%</a>).</p>
<p>Yet the largest settlement on the planet offers useful lessons – <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-worlds-biggest-city-the-past-offers-lessons-for-surviving-the-future-59619">historical</a>, present and future – that can guide the urban policies of other countries. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78335/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan F.D. Barrett is affiliated with the UN Global Compact Cities Programme based at RMIT University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Amati receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australia-Korea Foundation, Horticulture Innovation Australia and the Federal Government's National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>Tokyo has experienced extraordinary population growth but is among the world’s most liveable cities. Just how has it managed the pressures of growth?Brendan Barrett, Senior Lecturer, Program Manager, Masters of International Urban and Environmental Management, RMIT UniversityMarco Amati, Associate Professor of International Planning, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807402017-07-10T20:08:54Z2017-07-10T20:08:54ZMigrants are stopping regional areas from shrinking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177475/original/file-20170710-29701-16esf3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">International migrants are key contributors to the unskilled workforce.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/4680566534/in/photolist-88B8n1-oHk2Y2-8amZm7-j5MMLL-2aTwrG-7GSFFk-sMsxA-jBQSYN-bKX6CR-6wea5V-oPLBEW-fzvjBX-5hcfag-8Xr9SW-pJwNQU-pLC8Tv-gQiLVW-SqfgTm-gQjxsP-gQiFwP-pLnJX4-pLGtnj-9gDXrz-7GSFTk-7GWBYW-7GWBWq-7GSFSH-ecVHLa-ed2nRh-ed6e1S-ed2jxd-ed2nFQ-bm1xDN-ecVEtB-dRfWM6-dRmvzL-oPLA5m-pLnFgg-oPPz1a-gQiGzE-puaAPC-2FWK5v-omRH37-6KSWzc-pLBpyR-byVqGZ-aR3kqr-gQjBAP-ed6e83-ed2jk3">World Bank/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Rather than being <a href="http://australiafirstparty.net/immigrants-stealing-australian-jobs-are-fueling-our-growing-underclass/">an unsettling force</a>, international migrants are helping to provide stability to the regional Australian communities they settle in. A considerable number of new arrivals are also younger and have the potential <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-07/how-african-refugees-are-reinvigorating-mingoola/7970876">to build families and work</a> in these communities.</p>
<p>Research with the <a href="http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/2017/07/census-2016-overseas-migrants-vital-prosperity/">Regional Australia Institute</a>, examining the latest 2016 Census data, found 151 regional local government areas were helping to offset declining population in regional areas by attracting international migrants.</p>
<p>We can see that, for many small towns, the overseas-born are the only source of population growth. A majority of these places <a href="http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/RAI_Census-2016_population-growth.jpg">rely on primary industry for economic viability</a>. Although predominantly rural, these places are not in the most remote parts of Australia. </p>
<p><strong>Growth of Australian-born and overseas-born population, 2011-16</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177661/original/file-20170711-26770-1lybqhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Regional Australia Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of the 550 local government areas we reviewed, 175 regional areas increased their population, while 246 did not; 151 increased their overseas-born and decreased their Australian-born population. Only 20 areas increased in Australian-born population and decreased in overseas-born population.</p>
<p>We also found that 128 regional areas increased both Australian-born and overseas-born population. Another 116 regional areas decreased in both Australian-born and overseas-born population.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2KVTO/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="464"></iframe>
<p>Darwin is one example of where international migration has helped counter population decline. At the 2011 Census, Darwin had 45,442 people recorded as born in Australia and 19,455 born elsewhere. By 2016, the number of Australian-born locals had reduced to 44,953 and the number of overseas-born had increased to 24,961. </p>
<p>Without this increase in overseas-born residents, the Darwin population would have decreased. The local economy would likely have suffered as a result.</p>
<h2>The problem of shrinking regional towns</h2>
<p>Ever since the influx of immigrants following the second world war, the settlement of international migrants has been <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rn/2005-06/06rn09.pdf">overwhelmingly focused on large metropolitan centres</a>. This has been especially evident for recently arrived immigrants and those from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds. </p>
<p>Migrants perceive metropolitan areas as presenting a higher likelihood of <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0126793">finding compatriots</a> and better access to employment, as well as <a href="http://fecca.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Migration-and-Regional-Australia.pdf">education and health services</a>. Large cities have therefore been considered the most appealing settlement locations, with Sydney and Melbourne <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0main+features102014">the most popular</a>.</p>
<p>If settlement of international migrants had been proportional to the overall population distribution in Australia, an additional 125,000 migrants would have settled in regional Australia between 2006 and 2011.</p>
<p>In a concerted effort to promote the social and economic viability of regional communities, in 2004 the federal government <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rn/2005-06/06rn09.pdf">started a campaign to increase migrant settlement</a> throughout different areas of the country. </p>
<p>Regional settlement of migrants has since been encouraged across levels of government as a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8500.2008.00611.x/full">“win-win scenario”</a> for new arrivals and host communities alike.</p>
<h2>What international migrants bring</h2>
<p>In the past decade, there has been a particular focus on <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8500.2008.00611.x/full">secondary migration</a> to regional areas. That is, relocating international arrivals from metropolitan areas to regional ones. </p>
<p>Proactive community-business partnerships and local government initiatives have propelled this process. For example, in the Victorian town of <a href="https://www.ames.net.au/files/file/Research/19933%20AMES%20Nhill%20Report%20LR.pdf">Nhill</a>, the local arm of the poultry production company Luv-a-Duck worked with settlement service provider AMES Australia to help more than 160 Karen refugees find work in the area between 2010 and 2015. </p>
<p>In another town, <a href="http://www.dalwallinu.wa.gov.au/Assets/Documents/Content/Regional_Repopulation_Plan_2013.pdf">Dalwallinu</a> in Western Australia, the population was in decline and local infrastructure was deemed underused. In response, the local council has worked closely with residents since 2010 to attract skilled migrants.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding the challenges involved in attraction and retention, international migrants remain a vital asset for building regional economies and communities. They help stem skilled labour shortages in these areas – for example, <a href="https://human-resources-health.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1478-4491-11-69">by filling much-needed doctor and nursing positions</a>.</p>
<p>International migrants are also key contributors to the unskilled workforce, often filling positions that domestic workers are unwilling to take on. For example, abattoirs and poultry plants are important businesses in regional Australia. Many would be unable to operate without international migrants, as many local residents do not consider this kind of work <a href="http://mams.rmit.edu.au/tq2bgckavb421.pdf">“acceptable employment”</a>.</p>
<p>As a consequence of the various efforts to spread the settlement of overseas arrivals, the number of international migrants living and working in non-metropolitan Australia has increased. Between 2006 and 2011, 187,000 international migrants <a href="http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FINAL-Population-Dynamics-in-Regional-Australia.pdf">settled outside the major capital cities</a>.</p>
<p>Still, regional areas have remained underrepresented as a settlement location. Despite regional Australia being home <a href="http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/what-is-regional-australia/">to about one-third of the population</a>, less than one-fifth of all new arrivals between 2006 and 2011 settled in a regional area. </p>
<p>For regional areas to make the most of the many advantages migrants have to offer, there needs to be more focused policy that encourages and assists regional settlement across the country. This policy needs to be informed by the work in a growing number of regional communities (like Nhill and Dalwallinu) that already draw on international migration to combat population loss and persistent labour shortages. By encouraging more international migrants to call regional Australia “home”, we can start focusing on ensuring regional prosperity for the long term.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80740/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Longstaff works as a Senior Research Assistant for the Regional Australia Institute.</span></em></p>Regional settlement of migrants benefits both new arrivals and local communities.Emily Longstaff, PhD Candidate (Sociology), Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/797532017-07-06T20:16:14Z2017-07-06T20:16:14ZMigrants are healthier than the average Australian, so they can’t be a burden on the health system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175984/original/file-20170628-25818-j26yvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Increasing numbers of migrants will inevitably have an impact on Australia's health system.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Developed economies, including Australia, have increasingly been <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/269/hdr_2009_en_complete.pdf">using international migration</a> to compensate for demographic trend and skill shortages. Australia has one of the highest <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2024.0">proportion of overseas-born people</a> in the world: an estimated 26% of the total resident population was born overseas. This is expected to increase over the next decade. </p>
<p>So the health of immigrants and their use of health services are having increasing impacts on demands on the health system, its responsiveness, and the national health profile.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175760/original/file-20170627-6086-5fro4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proportion of older people relative to young and working-age populations is increasing in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129555788">Australian Institute of Health and Welfare</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of the most significant demographic trends in Australia today is the ageing of the population. This is an increase in the share of older people – defined as people aged 65 and older – relative to the youth (0 to 14 years) and working-age population (15 to 64 years). One in six Australians is <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2024.0">now over 65</a>, compared to one in seven in 2011 and only one in 25 in 1911.</p>
<p>The reasons for this trend are complex. These include the impact of the “baby boomer” generation and declines in fertility and mortality, combined with an increase in life expectancy. </p>
<p>Older people are <a href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/deaths/life-expectancy/">living longer</a>, which is an achievement of our health system. But an increase in life expectancy and decline in the death rate have created a paradoxical situation in which these older people have increased the country’s rates of illness and disability. This has led to a rise in health-care costs and an <a href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129555788">increase in use of health services</a>, as well as <a href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/hospitals/australian-hospital-statistics/">hospitalisation</a>.</p>
<p>While an ageing population adds to the burden on the health system, an intake of migrants who are generally young and healthier than the average Australian, due to their selectivity, might help balance this out. So, in fact, increasing migration would be of benefit to Australia’s health.</p>
<h2>Australian immigrants are healthy</h2>
<p>Australia uses something called the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-australias-points-system-for-immigration-26065">“points system”</a> to determine the eligibility of most of those who apply to immigrate here. Points are given for productivity-related factors such as language, education, age (more points are given to younger applicants) and skills. </p>
<p>But it is reasonable to assume the points system would not apply to English migrants who arrived before the abandonment of the White Australian policy in 1973 and to New Zealand migrants. Together, these two groups make up a large proportion of the migrants from English-speaking countries. The points system also does not apply to those who migrate under the <a href="http://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Brin">family</a>, <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/about/corporate/information/fact-sheets/40special">special eligibility</a>, and <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/about/corporate/information/fact-sheets/60refugee">humanitarian and refugee</a> programs.</p>
<p>Having said that, skilled migrants selected under a points-based system <a href="http://www.border.gov.au/about/reports-publications/research-statistics/statistics/live-in-australia/migration-programme">make up most (around 68%) of all migrants</a> in Australia. The rest (32%) taken in under the migration program come in through having a family member here.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176000/original/file-20170628-25848-1emjgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Migrant doctors make up a large part of the Australian workforce.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Skilled migrants (and in many cases, their dependants) go through <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa/Heal">medical screening</a> to meet minimum health requirements. The <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa/Heal/overview-of-the-health-requirement">Department of Immigration and Border Protection</a> specifies that, to meet the health requirement, an applicant must be free of a health condition that is:</p>
<ul>
<li>considered to be a threat to public health or a danger to the Australian community</li>
<li>likely to result in significant health care and community service costs to the Australian community</li>
<li>likely to require health care and community services that would limit the access of Australian citizens and permanent residents to those services as these are already in short supply.</li>
</ul>
<p>Humanitarian migrants have a <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa/Heal/overview-of-the-health-requirement/visas-that-have-a-health-waiver-provision">health waiver provision</a>, but they make up a very small proportion of the total migration program.</p>
<p>Research has shown that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25150651">immigrants tend to have better health status</a> that the Australia-born populations. This health advantage narrows significantly over time, leading to their health becoming similar to that of Australians.</p>
<h2>Migrants’ contribution to the workforce</h2>
<p>Immigrants make up a substantial part of the health workforce in Australia. The international movement of health professionals is a major component of migration. Australia has been <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2013/199/5/international-medical-migration-what-future-australia">dependent on international medical graduates</a> for a long time. </p>
<p>For example, according to an estimate by the <a href="http://www.cpmec.org.au/files/http___woparedaphgovau_house_committee_haa_overseasdoctors_report_combined_full_report1.pdf">Department of Health and Ageing</a>, international medical graduates comprise about 39% of the medical workforce in Australia and 46% of general practitioners in rural and remote locations. Another estimate suggests 53% of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3882294/pdf/1478-4491-11-69.pdf">medical practitioners in Australia</a> are foreign-trained.</p>
<p>The dependence on international doctors will <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2013/199/5/international-medical-migration-what-future-australia">likely be maintained</a> in future for a variety of reasons, such as to redress medical workforce maldistribution. Given Australia’s ageing patient and practitioner base and some key areas of the health workforce already in very short supply, this contribution of migrants is significant for Australia’s health profile.</p>
<p>Monitoring the health and well-being of immigrants is important for the overall health and public health systems in Australia. The issue of migrant health has become additionally important because the goal of Australia’s migration program has moved towards <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1759-3441.2003.tb00334.x/abstract">meeting the labour market needs</a> of the economy. Good health is essential to fully realise the social and economic potential of immigrants.</p>
<p>We must also continue to collect and examine data on the health care needs and health service utilisation of Australian-born and foreign-born patients. Finally, we must educate ourselves about important contributions migrants make to ensure informed decisions are made to protect the public health system.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79753/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Santosh Jatrana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Selecting immigrants on points is likely to result in them being healthy, or at least healthy enough for them not to put much strain on our exhausted health systems.Santosh Jatrana, Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow, Centre for Social Impact Swinburne, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792502017-07-05T04:05:00Z2017-07-05T04:05:00ZSuburbs ‘swamped’ by Asians and Muslims? The data show a different story<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174132/original/file-20170616-519-1flmii7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Only one Australian suburb, Lakemba in Sydney, has a population that is more than half Muslim.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jane Dempster</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>In her <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/1996/09/10/pauline-hanson-maiden-speech.html">maiden speech</a> to federal parliament in 1996, Pauline Hanson claimed Australia was in danger of being “swamped by Asians”. At her re-election to the Senate on 2016, Hanson <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/pauline-hanson-maiden-speech-2016/7847136">expanded her claim</a> to also being “swamped by Muslims”. But is this factually correct?</p>
<p>Using data from the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2071.0">2011 Census</a>, we analysed the distribution of Asians and Muslims at four spatial scales (neighbourhood, suburb, district, and region) within Australia’s 11 largest urban areas. We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00049182.2017.1329383">found no evidence</a> of any “swamping” by Muslims, or of ultra-segregation into “ghettos”.</p>
<p>There are concentrations of Asians, mainly in Sydney and Melbourne. But they are mostly neighbourhoods and suburbs where they form only a small minority of local populations.</p>
<h2>The geography of Asians and Muslims</h2>
<p>Asians form small minorities in about half of the more than 33,000 local neighbourhoods (average population of 430) across Australia’s 11 cities.</p>
<p>In another 40% of neighbourhoods, Asians comprise between 10% and 25% of local populations. In only 2% overall do they make up more than half the local population.</p>
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<p>The geography of Muslims is very different, and much less segregated. They are a much smaller proportion of Australia’s 11 metropolitan and major urban areas. But they are almost entirely absent from many neighbourhoods and suburbs.</p>
<p>In only 82 of the 33,337 neighbourhoods and in just one suburb – all in Sydney and Melbourne – do Muslims constitute half the local population. This amounts to 0.025%.</p>
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<p>In only four Sydney neighbourhoods and one in Melbourne (0.015% combined) is the Muslim population as high as 70%.</p>
<p>A figure of 70% or more is regarded in the international literature on Western cities as <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8306.2007.00579.x/abstract">indicating a ghetto situation</a>.</p>
<h2>Which cities stand out?</h2>
<p>So, one point stands out: local neighbourhoods where Asians and Muslims form a majority are almost entirely concentrated in Australia’s two major cities – Sydney and Melbourne. Brisbane and, less so, Perth also have very small pockets where Asians form half of neighbourhood populations.</p>
<p>In none of the other nine places is there even a single neighbourhood where Muslims form a majority of local neighbourhood populations. </p>
<p>In three of them – Newcastle, Geelong and Darwin – there are no neighbourhoods where Asians are a majority.</p>
<p>In Sydney, just under 8% of neighbourhoods contain one-quarter of the city’s Asian population. In Melbourne there are fewer Asian neighbourhoods, with 12% of the city’s Asian population.</p>
<p>The Sydney suburb of Hurstville, which Hanson <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-14/pauline-hanson-maiden-speech-asian-immigration/7645578">has identified</a> as somewhere “swamped by Asians”, has 63% of its population Asian. And nine other Sydney neighbourhoods are home to 13% of the city’s total Asian population.</p>
<p>But such a concentration is rare elsewhere. Melbourne has four districts (groups of suburbs) with Asian majorities.</p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne also have the largest Muslim populations. But few are concentrated in areas – even at the smallest, neighbourhood level, where they form as much as half of local populations. </p>
<p>In only one suburb, Sydney’s Lakemba, is more than half the population Muslim (predominantly Lebanese). But even in a suburb like Lakemba, these concentrations are scattered across different neighbourhoods.</p>
<h2>Why the moral panic?</h2>
<p>Polish sociologist Zygmunt Bauman argued that populist political parties like One Nation promote their causes <a href="http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1509512160.html">by creating</a> “moral panics”, or fears of:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… some evil [that] threatens the wellbeing of society. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In this situation, multiculturalism is presented as creating such fears where many of the immigrants are seen as “strangers”, culturally different from everybody else.</p>
<p>For some, known as “mixophiles”, the presence of such strangers in their midst is a positive aspect of city life. But not so among “mixophobes”, whom Bauman saw as concentrated among those who:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… lack the capacity to cut themselves off from [what they see as] … all too often unfriendly, distrustful and hostile urban environments. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This latter situation provides “highly fertile and nourishing meadows tempting many a political vote-gatherer to graze on them”. This, Bauman argues, is an opportunity:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… a growing number of politicians [not to mention certain media elements] would be loath to miss.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79250/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Forrest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Local neighbourhoods where Asians and Muslims form a majority are almost entirely concentrated in Australia’s two major cities – Sydney and Melbourne.James Forrest, Associate Professor of Geography and Planning, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/759302017-07-04T20:11:30Z2017-07-04T20:11:30ZCity planning suffers growth pains of Australia’s population boom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170080/original/file-20170519-12231-px6oyz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cities suffer the planning consequences of rapid population growth while the federal government reaps the revenue. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gilad_rom/19098533125/">Gilad Rom/Flickr </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the third article in our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>Australia has the <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/factbook-2015-1-en/evopop_g1.html?contentType=%2fns%2fStatisticalPublication%2c%2fns%2fChapter&itemId=%2fcontent%2fchapter%2ffactbook-2015-1-en&mimeType=text%2fhtml&containerItemId=%2fcontent%2fserial%2f18147364&accessItemIds=&option6=imprint&value6=http%3a%2f%2foecd.metastore.ingenta.com%2fcontent%2fimprint%2foecd&_csp_=4c076bdd9393ccf0422808ed2ced01cf">highest rate of population growth</a> of all the medium and large OECD countries. And <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0">more than three-quarters of the growth</a> is in four cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. But urban planning for this growth is often inadequate. </p>
<p>For a start, attempts to reduce infrastructure costs and save agricultural land by imposing urban growth boundaries have foundered. </p>
<p>In Melbourne, the statutory <a href="https://vpa.vic.gov.au/greenfield/more-information/urban-growth-boundary-key-facts/">urban growth boundary</a> has <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2012/06/26/why-expand-melbournes-growth-boundary/">repeatedly been pushed outwards</a>. The city is struggling to <a href="https://theconversation.com/back-to-the-drawing-board-for-australian-urban-planning-22287">meet its urban consolidation targets</a>.</p>
<p>In Brisbane, a 2015 University of Queensland <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/dp9028.pdf">study</a> found well-connected individuals own 75% of rezoned greenfield areas but only 12% of comparable land immediately outside the rezoning boundaries. The researchers conclude that rezoning was primarily driven by these landowners’ relationship networks.</p>
<p>In turn, planning is failing to protect high-value environments from urban development. Policies to preserve koala habitat around Brisbane have <a href="https://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/wildlife/koalas/pdf/koala-expert-panel-interim-report.pdf">failed</a>. Land clearing has increased since 2009.</p>
<p>And in Western Australia, under <a href="https://www.dpc.wa.gov.au/Consultation/StrategicAssessment/Pages/Default.aspx">Perth’s draft strategy</a>, 50% of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cocky-count-how-perths-green-growth-plan-could-wipe-out-was-best-loved-bird-56442">remaining feeding habitat</a> of the endangered Carnaby’s black cockatoo and 98 square kilometres of <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecocheck-perths-banksia-woodlands-are-in-the-path-of-the-sprawling-city-59911">banksia woodland</a> will be lost.</p>
<p>Despite their expanding area, Australian cities have less green open space. In attempts to reduce the costs of new infrastructure to meet the needs of increasing populations, average housing block size <a href="https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/built-environment/topic/2016/livability-housing">has been reduced</a>. </p>
<p>New suburbs have virtually no backyards because the planning process has failed to mandate minimum garden areas. The result is <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-are-cities-warmer-than-the-countryside-53160">urban heat islands</a> that <a href="https://theconversation.com/fewer-trees-leave-the-outer-suburbs-out-in-the-heat-33299">lack greenery</a> and recreation space. </p>
<h2>Costly housing of poorer quality</h2>
<p>Rising populations require more infrastructure. In Australia, the <a href="http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Policy-and-Legislation/Infrastructure/Infrastructure-Funding?acc_section=development_contributions">developer contributions</a> required to fund new local infrastructure are passed on to new home buyers in the form of higher house prices, reducing affordability. </p>
<p>Alternative methods could eliminate up-front hits on new home owners. An example is <a href="https://wenku.baidu.com/view/4c89ab669b6648d7c1c74659.html">benefit assessment districts</a>, where infrastructure is funded by bonds and repaid by the beneficiaries over decades. But state governments are resistant to this because new public loans are seen as a threat to state credit ratings. </p>
<p>Governments are also reluctant to use <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-value-capture-and-what-does-it-mean-for-cities-58776">value capture</a>, which involves applying a levy on increased property values arising from greenfield or brownfield rezoning. The levy proceeds pay for infrastructure or affordable housing. </p>
<p>Governments have seen such a levy as increasing developer costs and thus decreasing affordability. However, if value capture is signalled in advance, developers will reduce the price they pay for new sites to take account of the levy. In high-cost London, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/29/london-mayor-sadiq-khan-35-affordable-homes-target-deal-developers">affordable housing targets of 35%</a> have been applied to developers, compared to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-needs-higher-affordable-housing-targets-69207">5% proposed for Sydney</a>.</p>
<p>Furthermore, poor planning for high-density developments in Melbourne has allowed developers to meet increased population demand by constructing “<a href="https://theconversation.com/life-in-a-windowless-box-the-vertical-slums-of-melbourne-41181">vertical slums</a>” of micro-apartments of under 50 square metres with windowless bedrooms. </p>
<p>Such developments are illegal in comparable world cities. A recent <a href="https://www.churchilltrust.com.au/media/fellows/Hodyl_L_2014_Social_outcomes_in_hyper-dense_high-rise_residential_environments_1.pdf">report</a> found that weak planning controls have allowed Melbourne’s high-rise apartments to be built at four times the densities allowed in Hong Kong, New York and Tokyo.</p>
<p>Due to the supposed effects on affordability and saleability, developers are not being required to provide new open space for higher-density urban populations. In some cases, these services aren’t being funded because governments <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Documents/history-of-development-contributions-under-the-n/FINAL%20development%20contributions.pdf">set caps on developer contributions</a> to local infrastructure to reduce dwelling costs. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.lgnsw.org.au/files/imce-uploads/127/draft-lgnsw-submission-to-gsc-draft-district-plans-and-towards-our-greater-sydney-2056-march-2017.pdf">Local Government NSW</a> association, necessary state government infrastructure for higher population densities is often lacking too.</p>
<h2>Politics of traffic</h2>
<p>Urban population growth forecasts are driving <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2015/is_074.aspx">estimates of huge increases in traffic congestion costs</a>. However, electoral politics are also overriding pro-public transport strategies such as metro rail. </p>
<p>Three major motorway projects initiated during the Abbott era in <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au">Sydney</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/east-west-link-13782">Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://www.mainroads.wa.gov.au/Documents/Perth%20Freight%20Link-Information%20Sheet%20April%202015-web.RCN-D15%5E23197747.PDF">Fremantle</a> cut through left-leaning inner-city electorates, while <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08111146.2016.1272448">appealing to outer-suburban swing voters</a>.</p>
<p>Inner-city motorway developments are still proceeding. WestConnex (Sydney), Western Distributor (Melbourne) and Legacy Way (Brisbane) are driving investments in private profit-making transport infrastructure. Comparable cities overseas, such as San Francisco, Toronto, Vancouver and Los Angeles, <a href="http://www.accessmagazine.org/fall-2009/paved-good-intentions-fiscal-politics-freeways-20th-century-american-city/">stopped building inner-city motorways</a> years ago. </p>
<p>The business cases for new motorways also omit significant community costs. In the case of WestConnex, these include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>the costs of the extra sprawl induced by longer but quicker commuting trips;</p></li>
<li><p>the time and revenue costs of capturing tens of thousands of daily public transport trips; and</p></li>
<li><p>loss in value of properties near to interchanges. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Deficient business cases caused four inner-city motorways – <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/special-reports/cross-city-tunnel-headed-for-second-fatality-20130909-j0f4s">Cross City Tunnel</a>, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/toll-of-misery-as-tunnel-goes-under-20100120-mlsn.html">Lane Cove Tunnel</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiNl4m79q_UAhWGxrwKHSX3C80QFgg_MAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fcompanies%2Fgovernment-wins-battle-for-bankrupt-clem7-tunnel%2Fnews-story%2F82f181047d67f1684cf5ae472af3ee21&usg=AFQjCNFyD-r_mjY-bmXxtpMTB4H13RDruQ">Clem 7 Tunnel</a> and <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/airport-link-failure-a-total-disaster-asa/news-story/e0255230d2e46daaab90d3d8ec1d4f2c">Airport Link</a> – to go into receivership in the last few years, as the demand was never there.</p>
<h2>Hostage to the Growth Machine</h2>
<p>Part of the problem is Australia’s acute <a href="https://theconversation.com/renewing-federalism-what-are-the-solutions-to-vertical-fiscal-imbalance-31422">vertical fiscal imbalance</a>. </p>
<p>For instance, 80% of Sydney’s taxes go to the Commonwealth, not the state government. This means the federal government reaps the income gains from bigger city populations, while the states lack the resources to provide adequate urban infrastructure and services for these growing populations. </p>
<p>Perhaps the shortcomings of planning resulting from the need to accommodate fast-growing populations could be mended with reduced growth. </p>
<p>But Australian cities show all the symptoms of Molotch’s notion of a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2777096?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Growth Machine</a>: a large cast of actors – the development industry, property owners and many more – have a vested interest in continued rapid population growth, and lobby to keep that growth going.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Searle receives funding from an Australian .Research Council Discovery grant for a project modelling the spatial expansion of Brisbane.</span></em></p>Financial benefits are behind the development industry’s push for a continuous rapid population growth. But our poorly planned cities are ill-prepared and already struggling.Glen Searle, Honorary Associate Professor in Planning, University of Queensland and, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/780972017-07-03T20:09:50Z2017-07-03T20:09:50ZBloom and boom: how babies and migrants have contributed to Australia’s population growth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175788/original/file-20170627-29088-qdwoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even without immigration, new data reveals Australia's population would continue to grow. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/anonymous-crowd-people-walking-on-busy-160438778?src=GEDWwODwvjREwVHQZhqhNg-1-1">blvdone/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the second article in our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Population change has long been a topic of public debate in Australia, periodically escalating into controversy. </p>
<p>It is inextricably linked to debates about immigration levels, labour force needs, capital city congestion and housing costs, refugee intakes, economic growth in country areas and northern Australia, the “big versus smaller” Australia debate, and environmental pressures.</p>
<p>Views about the rate of population growth in Australia are numerous and mixed. At one end of the spectrum are those <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2011/10/26/five-reasons-australia-should-stay-small">who are vehemently opposed</a> to further population increases; at the other end <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2011/10/26/five-reasons-australia-should-be-big">are supporters</a> of substantially higher population growth and a “very big” Australia. </p>
<p>Logically, population debates usually quote Australia’s demographic statistics. But there is value in comparing our population growth in the international context. </p>
<h2>Average growth rates compared globally</h2>
<p>Although growth rates have fluctuated considerably from year to year, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument">statistics</a> just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Australia’s population grew by 3.75 million between 2006 and 2016. This indicates an average annual growth rate of 1.7%. </p>
<p>As the chart below shows, this was quite high compared to other countries and global regions. Over the decade, other English-speaking countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the US all experienced growth rates lower than Australia’s. The world’s more developed countries in aggregate grew by an annual average of 0.3%. </p>
<p>The world’s population as a whole increased by an average of <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/">1.2% per year</a>.</p>
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<p>According to the UN Population Division, Australia <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/">ranked</a> 90th out of 233 countries in terms of population growth rate over the decade. The countries or territories with higher growth rates were mostly less developed countries, particularly in Africa, and the oil-rich Gulf states. The only developed countries with faster rates of growth were Singapore, Luxembourg and Israel.</p>
<h2>Why Australia’s population growth rate is higher</h2>
<p>There are two main reasons for Australia’s high growth. </p>
<p>Net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration) is one major factor. It has been generating a little over half (<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument">56%</a>) of population growth in recent years. </p>
<p>Demand for immigration – to settle permanently, work in Australia, or study here for a few years – is high, and there are many opportunities for people to move to Australia. In the <a href="http://www.border.gov.au/about/reports-publications/research-statistics/statistics/year-at-a-glance/2015-16">2015-16 financial year</a> about 190,000 visas were granted to migrants and 19,000 for humanitarian and refugee entry. Temporary migrants included 311,000 student visas, 215,000 working holidaymaker visas and 86,000 temporary work (skilled) 457 visas. </p>
<p>Over the last five years, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument">ABS figures show</a> that immigration has averaged about 480,000 per year and emigration about 280,000. This puts annual net overseas migration at around 200,000. </p>
<p>This is high in international terms. UN Population Division <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Migration/">data for the 2010-15 period</a> reveals Australia had the 17th-highest rate of net overseas migration of any country.</p>
<p>But it is not just overseas migration driving Australia’s population growth. High natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) also makes a substantial contribution. Natural increase has been responsible for a little under half (44%) of population growth in recent years (about 157,000 per year). </p>
<p>Australia has a relatively healthy fertility rate, which lately has averaged almost <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument">1.9 babies per woman</a>. We also enjoy one of the <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Mortality/">highest life expectancies</a> in the world. </p>
<p>This combination of an extended history of net overseas migration gains, a long baby boom and a healthy fertility rate has resulted in Australia being less advanced in the population ageing transition than many other developed countries. </p>
<p>In particular, relatively large numbers of people are in the peak childbearing ages. This means that even if migration fell immediately to zero the population would still increase. Demographers call this age structure effect “population momentum”.</p>
<h2>Whether Australia’s population is growing too fast</h2>
<p>While Australia’s population growth rate is high in a global context, this does not necessarily mean its population is growing too fast. It all depends on your point of view. </p>
<p>It is important to stress that the overall population growth rate is just one aspect of Australia’s demography. A more comprehensive debate about the nation’s demographic trajectory should consider a broad range of issues, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>population age structure (the numbers of people in different age groups);</p></li>
<li><p>the health and wellbeing of a rapidly growing population at the highest ages;</p></li>
<li><p>population distribution across the country;</p></li>
<li><p>economic growth and development;</p></li>
<li><p>the contributions of temporary workers and overseas students;</p></li>
<li><p>appropriate infrastructure for the needs of the population; and</p></li>
<li><p>environmental management and per-capita carbon emissions.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Progress on issues such as healthy ageing, economic development,and environmental management depend on appropriate strategies to deal with these challenges. Total population numbers will often be relevant to the discussion, but they are only part of the equation.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Wilson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The latest statistics show Australia’s population growth in the last decade has been significantly higher than in other developed countries.Tom Wilson, Principal Research Fellow, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781832017-07-02T20:12:15Z2017-07-02T20:12:15ZAustralia doesn’t have a population policy – why?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175120/original/file-20170622-3024-1c30sbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite expert recommendations to adopt a population policy, Australian governments continue to resist. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/scott-s_photos/12712204375/">Scott Cresswell/flickr </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the first article in our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia Full?</a>, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy. Over the years, <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/RP9697/97rp17">multiple inquiries have recommended</a> such a policy. Population policies the world over typically focus on births and migration.</p>
<p>As part of post-war reconstruction, Australia adopted a 2% population growth target. Mass immigration was a defining feature, and couples were <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/immigrationnation/resources/article/176/populate-or-perish">called on to populate</a> or perish. Immigration was successful, but women were big losers in <a href="http://journal.mhj.net.au/index.php/mhj/article/view/530">the push for births</a>. </p>
<p>The 1975 <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/7437812?selectedversion=NBD1639533">National Population Inquiry</a> proved a significant moment in Australian demography. The inquiry found that Australia should not seek to influence population, but should anticipate and respond. </p>
<p>Population policy was revisited in the 1990s with the National Population Council. Its 1994 <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/people/583233?c=people">report</a> found no optimal population size for Australia, but again called for a responsive population policy of preparedness. </p>
<p>Interest in <a href="http://www.assa.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/AP22011.pdf">sustainable population policy</a> was renewed in 2010 following Kevin Rudd’s infamous <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-10-23/rudd-welcomes-big-australia/1113752">endorsement of a “big Australia”</a>. We even had a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-04-03/tony-burke-made-first-population-minister/390256">minister for population</a>, Tony Burke, for about six months until the portfolio was expanded. Population was subsequently dropped from any ministerial title. </p>
<p>After an <a href="http://webarchive.nla.gov.au/gov/20130904062013/http://www.environment.gov.au/sustainability/population/index.html">exhaustive inquiry</a>, <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/6944262c-e3de-4b70-9e09-e3e75668ce63/files/population-strategy.pdf">A Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia</a> was released in 2011. This stopped short of recommending a population policy but removed any option of population limits. Change felt possible in shifting the narrative to a proactive endeavour concerning population matters, particularly evident in the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/files/Our_Cities_National_Urban_Policy_Paper_2011.pdf">National Urban Policy</a>.</p>
<p>Despite such inquiries and recommendations to adopt a population policy, governments have so far resisted. Unsuccessful attempts at population policy can be understood in terms of difficulties in gaining political support and concerns about coercion. </p>
<p>But national population policy need not be coercive – unlike, for example, in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/13/india-population-growth-policy-problems-sterilisation-incentives-coercion">India</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/may/06/chinas-barbaric-one-child-policy">China</a>. Instead, it can be a series of targets and connected policy domains with oversight.</p>
<p>Presently, the policy landscape is disjointed. Parenting leave, family and childcare payments, and immigration are each somewhat responsive to population changes, but not prepared. Family payments have been shown <a href="https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol25/6/25-6.pdf">not to increase birth rates</a>.</p>
<h2>Births, deaths, migration – and taxes</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/%7E/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2015/2015%20Intergenerational%20Report/Downloads/PDF/2015_IGR.ashx">intergenerational reports</a> have been our only glimpse of responsiveness and preparedness. But these have increasingly been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-15/dr-karl-backs-away-from-political-intergenerational-report/6393152">criticised for their political tone</a>. Who could forget the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nV85VSuQMSI">Challenge of Change</a> campaign?</p>
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<p>What we know is that <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2024.0">Australia’s population continues to age</a>, so among the nation’s pressing issues is fewer taxpayers. The total age-related dependency ratio, of people aged over and under working age relative to the working-aged population, was 52 per 100 people in 2016. </p>
<p>While the child-dependency rate (0-14 year olds) is higher than the aged-dependency rate (people 65 and over), the rate of people aged less than 15 has steadily declined as the population aged 65 and over has driven increases in the so-called <a href="http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/dependency_ratio.pdf">dependency burden</a>. </p>
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<p>The relative increase in people older than working age is increasing pressure on the economy and government budgets. While government spending on young people is substantial, the highest per person spending is among people aged 65 and over. </p>
<p>A robust workforce contributing income tax and services is essential to ensure current lifestyles are afforded to the young while also sustaining the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/%7E/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2015/2015%20Intergenerational%20Report/Downloads/PDF/2015_IGR.ashx">public spending</a> necessary for people over 65 years who have over their lives contributed to the nation. </p>
<p>With <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3301.0">birth rates low</a> and <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3302.0Main%20Features12015?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3302.0&issue=2015&num=&view=">deaths increasing</a>, natural increase is no longer driving Australia’s population. <a href="http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/n2121/html/ch04.xhtml">Immigration</a> is increasingly relied on to offset the ageing of the workforce. Over half (54%) of Australia’s population growth is from <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%5Cabs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/CA1999BAEAA1A86ACA25765100098A47?Opendocument">net overseas migration</a>. </p>
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<h2>Preparing for an older population</h2>
<p>In a 2013 United Nations <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/policy/WPP2013/wpp2013.pdf#zoom=100">survey</a>, the Australian government reported concerns about population ageing, a desire to increase the “too low” birth rate, but satisfaction with the level of net overseas migration. Interestingly, a preference for migration away from cities was also cited. </p>
<p>From current policy and discourse, you would not know these views were held. Most Australians also report a preference for the level of immigration to remain the <a href="http://politicsir.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/politicsir.anu.edu.au/files/ANUpoll-national-identity-042015.pdf">same or be increased</a>, contrary to sentiments we often hear. </p>
<p>Australia has time to prepare for, and make opportunities of, the challenges of an ageing population. Some countries are facing tough decisions now and it is interesting to watch the politics play out. What <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/02/26/its-official-japans-population-is-drastically-shrinking/?utm_term=.265fef81a0c8">Japan</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-scrapping-the-one-child-policy-will-do-little-to-change-chinas-population-49982">China</a> and <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/germany-is-not-shrinking/a-37415327">Germany</a> show is that we need to take action now. </p>
<p>Insightful guides are in place already. <a href="http://saplan.org.au/media/BAhbBlsHOgZmSSIhMjAxMS8xMS8wNC8wMV8wMl8xNF8yMjNfZmlsZQY6BkVU/01_02_14_223_file">South Australia</a> has had a population strategy since 2004. <a href="http://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/124304/Population_Growth_Strategy_Growing_Tas_Population_for_web.pdf">Tasmania</a> recently adopted one.</p>
<p>These state strategies focus on growth to curb economic downturn. What is important in these two cases is that both emphasise policy portfolio linkages, as well as evidence and reporting against targets without coercive measures.</p>
<h2>What is a sensible approach to population policy?</h2>
<p>A renewed, earnest and transparent population conversation is needed. With ever more reliance on immigration, we must go beyond the unhelpful pro-immigration versus pro-nationalism debate to consider our population prospects. </p>
<p>The key question is: how can Australia make opportunities of its demographic challenges? </p>
<p>Australia has the potential to be a global leader in innovative markets and research and development. An ageing population provides an interesting market opening; we just need to be smart about it. Without careful consideration, Australia will be merely a bystander in the increasingly competitive global market. </p>
<p>Policy connectedness should exist between portfolios. These include: health; housing; education, skills and training; employment; infrastructure; regional development; water and energy; environment; and migrant settlement. </p>
<p>We can invest more effectively in young people – our future workforce and economic lifeblood – if we consider a life-course approach to population dynamics. Family friendly, gender-equal workplaces will go a long way to ease the pressures of having children. Integral to this is affordable and accessible child care.</p>
<p>And establishing a ministerial portfolio overseeing population strategy would be a good start.</p>
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<p><em>You can read other articles in the Is Australia Full? series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Allen is a member of the national council of the Australian Population Association. </span></em></p>Considering all the aspects of life in Australia that are affected by population, it’s remarkable that the nation doesn’t have a national policy on it.Liz Allen, Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.