tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/jacqui-lambie-12390/articlesJacqui Lambie – The Conversation2024-03-23T22:26:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257762024-03-23T22:26:23Z2024-03-23T22:26:23ZTasmanians have voted in a hung parliament. What now?<p>The votes have been cast, but the helter skelter race to form the next Tasmanian government is just beginning. </p>
<p>While the results aren’t likely to be formalised for a couple of weeks, the island state’s voters <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">haven’t given</a> Labor or the Liberals the 18 lower house seats needed to form a majority government. Overall, there has been a significant swing against the Liberal government, with the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) likely to be the main beneficiaries.</p>
<p>The Liberals are likely to secure the most seats in the next Tasmanian parliament. Premier Jeremy Rockliff <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-23/tas-state-election-results-live-blog/103619024">declared it</a> “the fourth consecutive win” for the Liberal party. </p>
<p>However, it remains to be seen whether they can secure the support of the three or four crossbenchers they will need to form government. What is clear is that negotiations to form the next Tasmanian government will take days, or even weeks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<h2>What do the numbers show so far?</h2>
<p>The next parliament looks like it will have 14 Liberals, ten from Labor, four Greens, two from the JLN, and two independents – with the remaining three seats too close to call. The final numbers will be confirmed once preferences have been distributed.</p>
<p>As expected, many Tasmanians turned away from the two major parties. The primary vote swing against the Liberal government looks to be around 12%, but Labor appears to have gained less than 1% statewide. Almost 34% of voters opted for minor parties and independents. It was a particularly strong result for the Greens, who are in with a chance of picking up the final undecided seats in at least three electorates. </p>
<p>The JLN did not perhaps do as well as expected. Their lack of a “lead” candidate in each seat meant their candidates pulled votes away from each other. </p>
<p>Both of the MPs that defected from the Liberal Party last year – leading Rockliff to call the election – failed to win back their seats as independents.</p>
<p>All this means that the process of forming the next Tasmanian government is likely to be full of twists, turns and controversy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online</a>
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<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>During the campaign, Labor and the Liberals both ruled out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN or the Greens in exchange for their support. Now, they may find themselves backtracking on this and coming to the negotiating table instead.</p>
<p>The two leaders struck markedly different tones in their speeches late on Saturday night. </p>
<p>Rockliff claimed victory, stating bullishly that “Tasmanians have not voted for a change of government” and that he will seek to lead a Liberal minority government. This would represent the continuation of the unstable situation he called the election to escape, depending on how the crossbench views his assumption of the Liberals’ right to continued rule. Some of the Liberal party’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">tactics</a> during the campaign will not have endeared them to crossbenchers – particularly those from the JLN.</p>
<p>Rebecca White did not concede defeat, but was more conciliatory. She acknowledged that minority government is likely to be the norm in Tasmania, and said that “Labor will be ready to work with the parliament to implement our agenda […] if that is the will of the people”. </p>
<p>All this is a bit ambiguous – will she go to the crossbench and attempt to cobble together a coalition? There were rumours throughout the night from journalists’ sources that this was a possibility, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Given Labor may only end up with ten seats, they’d need the support of eight crossbenchers, which would be no mean feat. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-power-prices-to-chocolate-fountains-the-tasmanian-election-campaign-has-been-a-promise-avalanche-225783">From power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche</a>
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<p>Adding a bit of spice to the mix is the potential for both leaders to face challenges from within their own ranks. </p>
<p>Labor’s very small improvement on its disappointing 2021 result will be a concern for party strategists, although there is no obvious successor to White. Rockliff claimed to be “just getting started”, but may well be privately concerned about former federal senator Eric Abetz’s barnstorming entry into Tasmanian parliament. </p>
<p>On the ABC’s coverage, Abetz was quick to point out the swing against the Liberals, and highlight the need for the party to review some of its policies and decision making. </p>
<h2>And for the nation?</h2>
<p>The 2024 Tasmanian election leaves us with a couple of things to think about ahead of the next federal election. </p>
<p>Tasmania’s new parliament is just the latest piece of evidence that two-party dominance <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/informit.136288830999916">is waning</a> across Australia. </p>
<p>It’s true that Tasmania’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-21/hare-clark-electoral-system-explained/100062736">Hare-Clark voting system</a> makes it easier for independents and minor party candidates to get elected. However, the poor Liberal and Labor primary votes will worry federal party strategists who hoped that the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-narrow-labor-win-and-a-teal-bath-all-the-facts-and-figures-on-the-2022-election-183359">Teal-bath</a> was a one off. </p>
<p>Certainly Bridget Archer and Andrew Wilkie will take comfort from the result where authentic, independent-minded candidates did well. It’s also clear that federal Labor have a lot of work to do in regional Tasmania if they are to retain Lyons and win back Braddon. </p>
<p>State election results haven’t always been the best predictor of federal election outcomes. However, that doesn’t mean that national party strategists will ignore what has happened in each of Tasmania’s five seats. </p>
<p>Another simmering issue is fixed parliamentary terms. Independents and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2019Federalelection/Report/section?id=committees%2Freportjnt%2F024439%2F75701">minor parties</a> often argue that “snap” elections disadvantage them, because they lack the ongoing resources and campaign apparatus’ of the major parties. Rockliff’s early election call <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/parties-candidates-using-ai-to-help-them-gain-an-advantage-in-2024-tasmanian-election/news-story/1954579a993971d5e30d9de1a1c333da">caused grumbling</a> to this effect from independents and minor parties in Tasmania, who felt cheated out of time to prepare. </p>
<p>All other <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-tasmanians-head-to-the-polls-liberal-premier-peter-gutwein-hopes-to-cash-in-on-covid-management-159526">states and territories</a> have fixed term parliaments. If the fallout from the Tasmanian election sparks further debate on this topic, it might <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-24/why-would-we-want-four-year-fixed-term-elections/8736832">reignite</a> the issue at the federal level.</p>
<p>But for now, let’s hope that the major parties can swallow their pride, accept that they didn’t convince Tasmanians of the need for majority government and negotiate an agreement with the crossbench. Doing so would show respect for the democratic will of the Tasmanian people and demonstrate willingness to put aside the politics and get on with addressing the state’s many challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225776/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite a swing against it, the Liberal party has likely won the most seats, but will fall short of a majority. While the vote counting will continue, the political fight is now to form government.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaRichard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263982024-03-23T11:16:56Z2024-03-23T11:16:56ZLiberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority<p>Tasmania has five electorates that each return seven members using the proportional <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/info/Publications/HareClark.html">Hare-Clark system</a>, for a total of 35 seats. A quota is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%. In previous elections, the quota was 16.7%, with five members per electorate.</p>
<p>With over 60% of enrolled voters counted in all seats, the <a href="https://pollbludger.net/tas2024/Results/">Poll Bludger’s current projections</a> are that the Liberals will win 3.1 quotas in Bass, 3.7 in Braddon, 2.2 in Clark, 2.7 in Franklin and 3.0 in Lyons. Adding the likely wins in Braddon and Franklin gives them 15 of the 35 seats, three short of the 18 needed for a majority.</p>
<p>Labor is projected to win 2.3 quotas in Bass, 2.0 in Braddon, 2.4 in Clark, 2.2 in Franklin and 2.6 in Lyons, for a total of ten with a possible eleventh in Lyons. </p>
<p>The Greens are projected to win 1.0 quotas in Bass, 0.6 in Braddon, 1.6 in Clark, 1.6 in Franklin and 0.8 in Lyons, and would probably achieve a total of five with two more possible.</p>
<p>The Jacqui Lambie Network appears to have a strong chance to win the final seats in Bass and Braddon, and independent Kristie Johnston is likely to win the final seat in Clark. Former Labor MP David O'Byrne, running as an independent in Franklin, is in a contest with the Greens.</p>
<p>Overall vote share projections are currently 36.9% Liberals (down 11.8% since the 2021 election), 28.7% Labor (up 0.5%), 13.8% Greens (up 1.4%), 6.7% JLN (new) and 9.5% for independents.</p>
<p>Labor and the Greens appear to have performed a bit better than expected from pre-election polls and independents worse. This is likely to make it harder for the Liberals to form a government.</p>
<p><strong>Sunday morning update:</strong> Tasmanian <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/">analyst Kevin Bonham</a> expects three Liberals, two Labor, one Green and one JLN in Bass, three Liberals, two Labor, one JLN and one undecided contest between the Liberals and independent Craig Garland in Braddon, with the Liberals currently ahead.</p>
<p>In Clark, Bonham expects two Liberals, two Labor, one Green and independent Kristie Johnston, with the final seat a contest between Labor and the Greens, and the Greens ahead currently. In Franklin, three Liberals, two Labor, one Green and independent David O'Byrne are expected winners. In Lyons, three Liberals, two Labor, one Green, with the final seat a contest between Labor and JLN.</p>
<p>Adding this up gives a total outcome of 14 Liberals out of 35, ten Labor, four Greens, two JLN, two independents and three undecided. </p>
<p>Incumbent Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff last night <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-23/tas-state-election-results-live-blog/103619024">claimed victory</a>, but we need to wait for final results and for the decisions of the crossbenchers to be known before we know whether the Liberals have retained government in Tasmania.</p>
<h2>How does Hare-Clark work?</h2>
<p>Tasmania uses Robson rotation, where candidate names within a group are randomised for each ballot paper, to prevent one candidate from benefiting from being the top candidate from their group. This means parties can’t order their candidates.</p>
<p>For a formal vote, electors need to number at least seven preferences, but can keep numbering beyond seven if they wish. The process of formally electing candidates won’t start until all votes have been counted. </p>
<p>This is likely to occur on April 2, the <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/house-of-assembly/elections-2024/ways-to-vote/postal-voting.html">deadline for receipt</a> of postal votes.</p>
<p>Any candidate with more votes than the quota is declared elected, and their surplus votes will be passed on to remaining candidates at a fractional value. </p>
<p>After surpluses are distributed, remaining candidates will be excluded starting with the one with the lowest vote, and their votes transferred as preferences to remaining candidates. </p>
<p>This process continues until all seven vacancies in each electorate are filled. Owing to “exhausted” votes that have no preference between the final candidates, it is common for the last winners to have less than a quota.</p>
<h2>Labor gains Dunstan in SA state byelection</h2>
<p>With 48% of enrolled voters counted in the Liberal-held South Australian <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">Dunstan state byelection</a>, Labor has defeated the Liberals by a 52.9–47.1 margin, a 3.4% swing to Labor since the March 2022 state election. This seat was previously held by former Liberal premier Steven Marshall. This is a government gain from an opposition at a byelection.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 40.0% Liberals (down 6.7%), 32.3% Labor (down 2.9%), 22.4% Greens (up 8.8%) and 3.3% Animal Justice (new).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hours into the count in the Tasmanian election, the state can expect a hung parliament. Meanwhile, Labor is succeeding in a South Australian state byelection.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257832024-03-20T19:04:17Z2024-03-20T19:04:17ZFrom power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche<p>The billboards are fading in the harsh sun. Antony Green is doing his vocal warm-up exercises. The 2024 Tasmanian election campaign is almost done and it’s now over to the voters. </p>
<p>The five-week campaign has been largely uninspiring but not without notable moments, from wildcard independents to promises of the world’s largest chocolate fountain. </p>
<p>So what’s the state of play going into election day? Which announcements have cut through, and what’s been lost in the flood of promises? And of course, what might we prefer to forget?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming</a>
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<h2>The key players</h2>
<p>Tasmania has five electorates: Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin, and Lyons. Each of these will <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-24/peg-putt-1998-tasmanian-parliament-numbers-chair-protest/101689536">elect seven members</a> to the lower house for the first time since 1998, when each electorate was reduced to five seats. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Tasmania’s lower house is being restored to 35 seats.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Jeremy Rockliff is leader of the Liberal Party (there’s no Coalition down south), and has been premier since April 2022. </p>
<p>He’s had a rough ride. There have been several cabinet reshuffles, and he’s been forced to govern in minority since May 2023, when two of his MPs <a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">quit the party</a> to sit on the crossbench. He called the election in a bid to re-establish his parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>In the opposite camp, Rebecca White is leader of the Labor Party, and will be hoping to avoid her third straight electoral defeat. Like Rockliff, the past few years haven’t been smooth sailing for White and Labor. </p>
<p>She resigned as party leader after the 2021 election defeat and was replaced by David O’Byrne. However, O’Byrne was forced to quit three weeks later following a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560">sexual harassment claim</a>, and White was re-elected as leader. She and Labor have struggled to cut through during the election campaign.</p>
<p>Rosalie Woodruff is the leader of the Greens, which have long been the third party in Tasmania. Woodruff took over from Cassy O’Connor in July 2023, but is something of an unknown quantity, with a lower public profile than previous Greens leaders.</p>
<p>Here’s where things get interesting. This election will see the highest number of independents (29) contesting a Tasmanian election for decades. </p>
<p>While there are too many to list them all, ones to keep an eye on include: </p>
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<li><p>John Tucker and Lara Alexander (the Liberal MPs who quit in 2023)</p></li>
<li><p>David O’Byrne (former Labor leader)</p></li>
<li><p>Kristie Johnson (a sitting independent MP) </p></li>
<li><p>Sue Hickey (former Hobart Lord Mayor, former Liberal then independent MP).</p></li>
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<p>Finally, there’s the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), which is running candidates in all seats except Clark. The JLN made the controversial decision not to release any policies, instead pitching themselves as a group of down-to-earth people that wants to “keep the bastards honest”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">Tasmania is going to an early election. Will the country's last Liberal state be no more?</a>
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<h2>Which issues have dominated the campaign?</h2>
<p>Polling during the campaign showed the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/tas-stateline-election-issues-influencing-voters/103463516">top concerns</a> for most Tasmanian voters were health care and cost of living. Labor and Liberal both put forward several measures aimed at these areas, among others. </p>
<p>Millions of dollars have been promised with the enthusiasm of a discount carpet warehouse closing-down sale – but this <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/lyons-is-tasmanias-largest-geographical-electorate-covering-many-regional-areas/news-story/c116fd291dc9b8eb76efc2fe363e49ea">hasn’t necessarily</a> helped win votes. In fact, this sort of policy bonanza can confuse and overwhelm voters.</p>
<p>In an ideal world, we would each decide our vote by comparing each candidate or party’s full set of policies, and figuring out which one best matches our own values. But who has time for that? </p>
<p>In reality, people typically vote based on a combination of <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/what-makes-us-vote-the-way-we-do/">other things</a>, including specific, controversial issues, eye-catching headlines, and candidates’ personalities. This is how democracies tend to work all over the world. </p>
<p>So what were the things that might have shifted votes during this campaign? </p>
<p>The long-running divide in Tasmanian society between environmental conservation and economic development remains, meaning voters may decide whom to side with depending on each party’s stance on salmon farming or the proposed new AFL stadium, for example. </p>
<p>Some influential issues are hyper-local, such as a long-closed <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/labor-makes-election-promise-of-5m-to-repair-and-reopen-glenorchy-pool/news-story/88a4ff6da7046cea183d4ac962eecc06">community pool</a>. </p>
<p>There have been a few “headline grabbers” during the campaign, designed to stick in the minds of undecided voters. The best example of this is the Liberals’ promise to build the world’s largest <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/10/pure-imagination-tasmanian-premier-vows-to-build-worlds-largest-chocolate-fountain-if-re-elected">chocolate fountain</a> if elected. Labor’s <a href="https://taslabor.org.au/our-plan/power-prices/">refrain</a> “Tasmanian prices for Tasmanian power” is also in the mix. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1766562220194877696"}"></div></p>
<p>The final thing that may sway voters is what <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/19/its-the-vibe-25-years-on-how-the-castle-became-an-australian-classic#:%7E:text=For%20some%2C%20the%20most%20well,the%20vibe%2C%E2%80%9D%20says%20Denuto.">Dennis Denuto</a> would call “the vibe” around candidates. </p>
<p>Rockliff has benefited from the perception that he’s a “<a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/wooley-libs-launched-back-in-time-by-nice-guy-jrock/news-story/acbafc64fae580379192f2e65ea8aa37">nice guy</a>” in tough circumstances, while White has struggled to separate her brand from the O’Byrne controversy and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-30/analysis-labor-strategy-questions-after-winter-snub/100037140">earlier Labor factional fighting</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens have been doorknocking hard, particularly in the state’s <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/03/15/tasmanian-greens-state-election-braddon/">northwest</a>. That personal contact may help them get a new candidate across the line. </p>
<p>The JLN has leaned heavily on their namesake’s forceful “battler” personality. Each independent has tried to build their own brand, typically by focusing on a specific issue or spruiking their ability to stand up to the major parties. It’s tricky to tell how successful these efforts have been – the proof will be in the votes. </p>
<h2>The lowlights</h2>
<p>There have been a few lowlights during the campaign. First prize goes to the fake JLN site <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">set up</a> by the Liberal Party. This particular piece of skulduggery is not against electoral law, but it’s certainly against the spirit of democracy. It might not have the desired effect: this type of negative campaigning can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">turn voters away</a> from the offending party.</p>
<p>Another disappointing aspect of the campaign was Rockliff and White repeatedly ruling out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN, or the Greens in exchange for their support. This is due to the perceived failure of <a href="https://www.aspg.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/33_2-Michael-Lester.pdf">previous power-sharing</a> deals in Tasmania. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online</a>
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<p>Rockliff even proposed that MPs who quit their party should be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/experts-respond-to-tas-liberals-stability-clause/103599746">booted out</a> of parliament and replaced with a candidate from the same party – a stunt that ignores that our political system is based on candidates being elected to represent a constituency, not a party. </p>
<p>Rockliff and White may come to regret their strident rhetoric when the votes are counted. It looks <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">very unlikely</a> either party will win the 18 seats needed to form a majority government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tasmanians head to the polls on Saturday in an election that was called more than a year early. After a largely uninspiring campaign, here’s your guide to state election.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257742024-03-14T05:54:48Z2024-03-14T05:54:48ZThe Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of ‘cybersquatting’. It’s the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online<p>Firebrand senator Jacqui Lambie is furious. Amid the Tasmanian election campaign (in which she’s running candidates), her party, the Jacqui Lambie Network, has fallen victim to one of the many pitfalls in the world of online political advertising.</p>
<p>Her party’s website is lambienetwork.com.au. You might understand her anger, then, after <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">finding out</a> the Tasmanian Liberal party created a website to campaign against her, called lambienetwork.com. It’s a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it difference.</p>
<p>This is a textbook example of what’s known as cybersquatting. It’s when internet domain names that are similar to existing trademarked material or the names of people or organisations are bought up by competitors to use against the original. In fact, the major parties have purchased <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/04/08/crikeys-australian-political-party-domain-register/">a heap</a> of domain names.</p>
<p>As political parties desperately battle for voters’ attention in a world full of distractions and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-08/trust-slump-as-division-rules/101939406">dwindling trust in government</a>, cybersquatting is one of many online tools in the toolkit. But the toolkit is full of blunt instruments that may only be effective on a minority of people. The true damage is being done to the majority, who have less and less faith in politics and its institutions.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-governments-are-guilty-of-running-political-ads-on-the-public-purse-heres-how-to-stop-it-191766">All governments are guilty of running political ads on the public purse. Here's how to stop it</a>
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<h2>A crowded, manufactured landscape</h2>
<p>In commercial marketing, there’s a focus on long-term brand building. In political marketing, there’s just one goal: winning.</p>
<p>With such high pressure, and little time to hit objectives, parties and candidates use highly emotive messaging and narratives to drive rapid attention and engagement, and hopefully convince people to vote for them.</p>
<p>With markets splintered into ever-smaller segments, based at times on very specific needs, <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebook-videos-targeted-texts-and-clive-palmer-memes-how-digital-advertising-is-shaping-this-election-campaign-115629">social media</a> has helped move voters quickly and developed narratives around leaders’ personal brands. </p>
<p>Instagram was used successfully by former prime minister Scott Morrison with <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/punjabi/en/article/prime-minister-scott-morrison-makes-scomosas-says-would-have-liked-to-share-them-with-narendra-modi/fzx9zmmkg">his Scomosas</a> and attempt at Bunnings DIY. </p>
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<p>His successor, Anthony Albanese, has replicated that strategy, letting us get a glimpse of who he really is, even having a <a href="https://twitter.com/TotoAlbanese?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1529271741683339264%7Ctwgr%5E2db6b443e67a568315e7a33f81e6cd31f916b63d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.perthnow.com.au%2Fpolitics%2Fanthony-albanese%2Fanthony-albaneses-dog-toto-gains-huge-following-on-twitter-c-6934822">Twitter/X account for his dog Toto</a>. This is aimed at developing resonance and building up likeability for his brand. </p>
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<p>Of course, as any royal watcher or user of social media can tell you, <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-kate-middletons-photo-was-doctored-but-so-are-a-lot-of-images-we-see-today-225553">curated images are exactly that</a>: manufactured, for us. So we are trusting this method less and less. This will only get worse the longer voters are exposed to it.</p>
<p>Stories such as that in the 2022 federal election of Labor-aligned groups <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/aec-investigating-union-tiktok-accounts-ahead-of-election/100969896">considering paying influencers</a> to post friendly content, doesn’t help either. </p>
<p>As a result, when we see content posted by an influencer, we’re now more likely to be sceptical. Do they really like this product, or are they just being paid to say they do?</p>
<h2>‘Angertainment’ is highly effective</h2>
<p>So it’s back to square one. Enter negativity, or “angertainment”.</p>
<p>Reality shows are full of it. One example is <a href="https://www.girlmuseum.org/media-analysis-the-villain-edit/#:%7E:text=When%20a%20participant%20is%20edited%20in%20a%20way,footage%20of%20someone%20is%20presented%20to%20the%20audience.">the villain edit</a>, where certain contestants are framed to be the antagonist for the sake of drama. There’s also the cued music to make us feel this is the “season-defining moment”. </p>
<p>They do this for the same reasons politicians have done it for decades. It works. It gets our attention. We get engaged. We change our vote. Ratings of these shows don’t lie. </p>
<p>In the past, this was called “wedge politics”, as it wedged one group of voters against others. A party or candidate could then become that group’s champion, and hello election victory. Simple narrative construction. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-tracked-election-ad-spending-for-4-000-facebook-pages-heres-what-theyre-posting-about-and-why-cybersecurity-is-the-bigger-concern-182286">We tracked election ad spending for 4,000 Facebook pages. Here's what they're posting about – and why cybersecurity is the bigger concern</a>
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<p>This was easy when competition for our attention was less fierce. John Howard’s 2001 election-opening “<a href="https://theconversation.com/issues-that-swung-elections-tampa-and-the-national-security-election-of-2001-115143">we decide</a>” statement about immigration was pure wedge politics. </p>
<p>The aim is still the same now, but in a competitive environment for our attention and retention, modern methods have allowed for new ways to reach the average voter. Having not seen them before, people are <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-scare-campaigns-like-mediscare-work-even-if-voters-hate-them-62279">more susceptible to believing</a> them. </p>
<p>Clive Palmer has used <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/08/clive-palmer-and-craig-kelly-using-spam-text-messages-to-capture-rightwing-vote-ahead-of-election-expert-says">spam text messages</a> over the years to grab some attention, although it hasn’t necessarily translated into electoral success.</p>
<p>A more inventive use of the internet to campaign was Pauline Hanson’s <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/please-explain">cartoon series</a>. The first three episodes racked up <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/pauline-hanson-as-a-superhero-these-cartoons-could-be-the-future-20211123-p59b9u.html">750,000 views</a> in two weeks on YouTube. </p>
<p>Both Labor and Liberal have had a strong presence on Snapchat. In 2016, the Liberals were among the first to <a href="https://www.marketingmag.com.au/social-digital/liberal-party-makes-world-history-first-sponsored-snapchat-lens-political-advertising/">make a filter</a> on the app. Labor was the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/technology/how-are-politicians-using-social-media-to-campaign-20220418-p5ae6q.html">only major party</a> to use it during the 2022 federal election campaign.</p>
<p>These are all new ways of communicating a party’s key messages, including scare or smear campaigns. </p>
<p>Think “Mediscare”, so well done by Labor in 2016 via SMS, and then the revenge sequel of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/08/it-felt-like-a-big-tide-how-the-death-tax-lie-infected-australias-election-campaign">death taxes</a> in 2019 by the Coalition. They used Facebook groups very well. </p>
<p>Angertainment is now seen as being more likely to get the message across, and thereby victory, than anything else. </p>
<p>A significant aspect of these campaigns was disinformation, including the misrepresentation or impersonation of candidates. Senator David Pocock was a key target in the ACT in 2022, but <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-27/david-pocock-lodges-complaint-over-advance-australia-corflutes/101016990">successfully ran a challenge</a> through the Australian Electoral Commission. </p>
<p>But this is 2024, and two years is an aeon in social media. The Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) website trick we saw this week is an old-school one. Unlike some of the other strategies, it’s not effective. It is, however, childish. </p>
<p>So why bother? The attacking party would be obvious to most, if not by the authorised name as required by electoral laws. This dilutes the effect and it likely reinforces the reasons to vote for the JLN. </p>
<p>But political parties do it to capitalise on those who don’t realise they’re receiving a message in bad faith. Even if it’s a minority, it’s someone. In a tight political climate, it might be enough to tip the scales in their favour.</p>
<p>The collateral damage, of course, is the spread of misinformation and public disillusionment with politics and elections.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/few-restrictions-no-spending-limit-and-almost-no-oversight-welcome-to-political-advertising-in-australia-181248">Few restrictions, no spending limit, and almost no oversight: welcome to political advertising in Australia</a>
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<h2>Can we stop this?</h2>
<p>We can, easily. </p>
<p>Cybersquatting is in a grey area legally. There are gaps in the relevant legislation that make it very difficult for those affected to get websites taken down. They’re often managed by international organisations with laborious processes.</p>
<p>But the government can ban cyber hijacking or squatting of politicians or parties’ web addresses or social channels. It can restrict negative advertising, and bring in green ticks to verify truthful advertising. </p>
<p>Government can also ensure social media companies take more responsibility for content, and tolerate fewer excuses for poor behaviour. This isn’t restricting freedom of speech, only restricting disinformation. Some independents <a href="https://mumbrella.com.au/new-bill-tabled-to-bring-much-needed-accountability-to-political-advertising-806487">have already</a> introduced bills in parliament on this issue.</p>
<p>If it’s so easy, why hasn’t it been done? Because that requires political support. Considering politicians are the ones who benefit most from the existing framework, we don’t need a negative ad to tell us how unlikely they are to do anything about it anytime soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225774/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As political parties desperately battle for voters’ attention, cybersquatting is one of many online tools in the toolkit. It’s only effective at further diminishing trust in government.Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2165332024-02-14T04:18:58Z2024-02-14T04:18:58ZTasmania is going to an early election. Will the country’s last Liberal state be no more?<p>After months of speculation about an early election and a battle to keep minority government alive, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff – Australia’s last remaining Liberal Premier – has called an election for March 23, three years into a four-year term.</p>
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<p>In making the announcement, Rockliff said he wanted the stability of majority government.</p>
<p>“I’m not going to allow myself or my government to be held to ransom for the next 12 months. It’s bad for Tasmania, it’s bad for Tasmanians.”</p>
<p>What issues are likely to dominate the campaign? What is the likely outcome, and will it have any implications beyond the shores of Australia’s island state?</p>
<h2>What’s been going on?</h2>
<p>The Tasmanian Liberals have governed since 2014, but recently Rockliff has had to manage a series of ructions. </p>
<p>There have been seven reshuffles since the 2021 election, sparked in some cases by high profile ministerial resignations. </p>
<p>In mid-May 2023, two government back benchers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-12/tasmania-liberal-government-in-minority-mps-defect-over-stadium/102333446">quit the party</a> to sit on the cross bench, citing a range of grievances. </p>
<p>Lara Alexander and John Tucker’s agreement with Rockliff to guarantee supply and confidence in the House lasted until early February when the premier issued a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/tas-premier-rockliff-issues-early-election-threat-to-mps/103413562">second ultimatum</a> effectively demanding the rebel MPs support all government legislation.</p>
<p>Given neither of the independents were willing to cede their independence an early election became inevitable. Now, the real question is whether Tasmanian voters will blame the premier or the rebel MPs for taking them to the polls a year early?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-tasmanian-afl-team-turned-into-a-political-football-205846">How the Tasmanian AFL team turned into a political football</a>
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<p>Due to Tasmania’s 25-seat Lower House (which has been <a href="https://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/47584/47_of_2022-srs.pdf">restored</a> to 35 members for this election), these events have stretched Rockliff’s talent pool and contributed to a feeling among voters that the government is approaching its used by date.</p>
<p>Rubbing salt in the wound, Labor and the Greens have relished pointing out that a party which had <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/speeches/state-of-the-state-address">promised to deliver</a> stable majority government was now in minority. Indeed, Jeremy Rockliff cited
the need restore majority government and avoid “governing with one hand tied behind my back” as a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/tas-rockliff-stateline-analysis-early-election-trigger/103413270">justification</a> for going to the polls a year early.</p>
<p>Given Tasmania’s proportional Hare Clark electoral system, where candidates only need to secure about 15% of the vote after preferences to win a seat, it seems inevitable that forming government will require some form of power sharing or coalition arrangement. </p>
<p>This is reinforced by polling data that suggests Tasmanian voters are turning their backs on both major parties. A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">YouGov poll</a> conducted in January had both Liberal and Labor polling around 30% (31% Liberal, 27% Labor), with the Jacquie Lambie Network (20%), Greens (15%) and other independents (7%) sharing the remaining 40%.</p>
<h2>The key issues</h2>
<p>This all suggests that well established campaign strategies will once again be trotted out. </p>
<p>The government will talk up the strong (but <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/tasmanias-economy-slumps-from-first-to-sixth-in-aus/103065236">slowing</a>) economy and run a scare campaign against
minority government. This approach has served the Liberals well in the past, but their current minority status may undermine the pitch. </p>
<p>Labor, the Greens, independents, and the Jacqui Lambie Network will all point to the failure to address persistent housing, hospital, and transport challenges, as well as growing concerns about transparency and accountability.</p>
<p>One wildcard is government support for Hobart’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/11/the-devils-and-the-detail-of-the-715m-afl-stadium-dividing-tasmania">proposed waterfront AFL stadium</a>. Most Tasmanians want an AFL team, but many have concerns about the mooted funding
model in which the government covers most of the cost – and the financial risk.</p>
<p>Finally, the rise and dominance of hyper-local issues is making it hard for parties to develop and deliver a cohesive long-term strategy for the state. History shows that laundry lists of election promises don’t provide the basis for good government.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanias-reached-net-zero-emissions-and-100-renewables-but-climate-action-doesnt-stop-there-160927">Tasmania's reached net-zero emissions and 100% renewables – but climate action doesn't stop there</a>
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<h2>Federal eyes on the campaign</h2>
<p>Mainland pundits will be watching the election closely for two main reasons.</p>
<p>Firstly, the March poll will be an early test of electoral support for a more conservative Liberal party in Tasmania and beyond. While Rockliff is a moderate, the conservative faction of the Tasmanian Liberals is in the ascendancy with former long-serving federal senator Eric Abetz seeking to make a comeback in the state seat of Franklin. </p>
<p>Abetz will likely be elected, but it remains to be seen whether this occurs despite a broader swing against the Liberals. </p>
<p>If the party can retain government in Tasmania, it may provide an early indication that the national political tide is turning.</p>
<p>Secondly, the election may provide further evidence of fragmentation in Australian politics. </p>
<p>If significant numbers of Tasmanians, particularly those from regional and less well-off communities, vote for independents or minor parties, the major parties will have some serious soul searching to do. They’ll need to rethink their strategies for future state and national elections.</p>
<h2>What does the crystal ball say?</h2>
<p>Tasmanian elections are notoriously hard to predict.</p>
<p>Given the most likely outcome will be some form of coalition or power-sharing arrangement, negotiations after polling day will be just as important and interesting as the vote itself.</p>
<p>Will the Liberals be willing to form a minority government, and would Jeremy Rockliff be prepared to lead it? </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nothing-left-in-the-tank-resigning-tasmanian-premier-peter-gutwein-deserves-credit-on-covid-and-economics-180596">‘Nothing left in the tank’: resigning Tasmanian premier Peter Gutwein deserves credit on COVID and economics</a>
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<p>After ten years in the wilderness (not such a bad place to be in this part of the world!) Labor is desperate to govern, but will be reluctant to enter into an agreement with the Greens due to past experience. They may, however, be willing to govern with the support of the Jacqui Lambie Network and/or independents.</p>
<p>Tasmanian politics has always had a unique and interesting dynamic, and the March election is unlikely to disappoint. The real test is whether members of the next Tasmanian Parliament are able to put the interests of the community above petty politics to deliver the good government Tasmanians deserve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After frontbench resignations, MPs going rogue and months of speculation, the Apple Isle is headed to the polls. What can we expect?Richard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaRobert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081802023-06-21T07:11:53Z2023-06-21T07:11:53ZThe International Criminal Court is unlikely to prosecute alleged Australian war crimes – here’s why<p>For the first time, Australians have been referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for investigation into alleged Afghan war crimes. </p>
<p>That <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/jacqui-lambie-asks-icc-to-investigate-adf-leaders-over-alleged-war-crimes-20230620-p5di30.html">Senator Jacqui Lambie</a> has instigated this process is even more extraordinary as it’s the first time any Australian MP has taken that step. </p>
<p>Lambie’s ICC referral focuses on the legal responsibility of Australian Defence Force (ADF) commanders who knew, or should have known, about alleged war crimes committed by their forces in Afghanistan. </p>
<p>This move by Lambie may not lead to any formal action by the ICC, but it does shine a spotlight on how Australia is responding to these claims.</p>
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<h2>Why the ICC is unlikely to act</h2>
<p>The court will no doubt acknowledge receipt of Lambie’s referral, but it is doubtful whether it would commence an active investigation given the ongoing work of the <a href="https://www.osi.gov.au/">Office of the Special Investigator</a> established in 2021, with Mark Weinberg as the lead investigator.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.osi.gov.au/news-resources/director-generals-opening-statement-budget-estimates-2023-24">Senate Estimates</a> hearing in May, Chris Moraitis, the office’s director-general, said up to 40 alleged acts are currently being investigated by his office and the Australian Federal Police. </p>
<p>In March, the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/03/22/first-australian-soldier-charged-over-alleged-war-crime-afghanistan">first charge</a> was brought against a former Australian soldier, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/20/former-sas-soldier-oliver-schulz-arrested-alleged-war-crime-accused-of-killing-afghan-civilian">Oliver Schulz</a>. He was accused of the war crime of murder under the Commonwealth Criminal Code. </p>
<p>No further details have been released as to current and former defence personnel who are under investigation. But the Office of the Special Investigator’s mandate is to consider all ADF conduct in Afghanistan from 2005-16, which will include senior officers and commanders. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-investigating-potential-war-crimes-in-afghanistan-just-became-much-harder-and-could-take-years-171412">Why investigating potential war crimes in Afghanistan just became much harder – and could take years</a>
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<p>The office is also not limited to the allegations investigated and reported on in the 2020 <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/afghanistan-inquiry">Brereton Report</a>. It has its own mandate and can conduct its own investigations.</p>
<p>The ICC was only ever intended as a court of last resort in these matters. That means it will only investigate and prosecute people for alleged war crimes when a country is unwilling or unable to do so itself. </p>
<p>This may arise if the state is incapable of pursuing prosecutions because of disorder or unrest, or because of the collapse of a national judicial system. None of these situations currently exist in Australia.</p>
<p>The ICC is also incredibly busy with its ongoing investigation into war crimes allegations in Ukraine, which are occurring in real time on a near-daily basis. </p>
<p>This is on top of its other work. To date, the ICC prosecutor has received some <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/otp">12,000 requests</a> to investigate alleged war crimes committed worldwide over the past 20 years. </p>
<h2>What the ICC is investigating in Afghanistan</h2>
<p>The legal landscape for war crimes prosecutions has radically changed in recent decades due to the creation of the ICC. </p>
<p>The court has jurisdiction with respect to war crimes committed by the nationals of state parties, such as Australia. Its jurisdiction extends to “grave breaches” of the laws of war, which sets a high threshold for the most serious and egregious acts. </p>
<p>Presently, the ICC prosecutor is already investigating alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes committed by various sides in the Afghan conflict including Australian, UK and Taliban forces and the Islamic State - <a href="https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-crime-war-crimes-taliban-international-criminal-court-570bfa1f57f912f5ac49df2c1f301144">dating back to the early 2000s</a>. The US is not a member of the court and does not respect its jurisdiction. </p>
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<p>With regard to Australian soldiers, Lambie’s concern is that the Office of the Special Investigator is focused on troops and officers, not ADF commanders. </p>
<p>International criminal law and the ICC recognise “<a href="https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/duty-of-commanders/">command responsibility</a>”, which is the legal responsibility of commanders when their forces commit war crimes. However, commanders must have directed such conduct or had reasonable knowledge that such conduct was being committed. </p>
<p>Australia has been an enthusiastic supporter of the ICC, but its recognition of ICC jurisdiction was contingent on a formal <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-12811">declaration</a> in 2002 made by the Howard government which provided, in part, that </p>
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<p>no person will be surrendered to the court by Australia until it has had the full opportunity to investigate or prosecute any alleged crimes. </p>
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<p>Additionally, Australia would only surrender a person to the ICC for prosecution following the Commonwealth attorney-general issuing a certificate. </p>
<p>The government response to the Brereton Report – with its establishment of the Office of the Special Investigator – means it is taking the lead in prosecuting war crimes allegations. As such, an Australian soldier or commander would only be handed over to the ICC in the most exceptional of cases.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stripping-medals-from-soldiers-is-murky-territory-and-must-not-distract-from-investigating-alleged-war-crimes-207615">Stripping medals from soldiers is murky territory, and must not distract from investigating alleged war crimes</a>
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<h2>Australia’s experience in war crimes prosecutions</h2>
<p>Over the past seven years, we have gotten a much clearer picture of the alleged actions of Australian soldiers in Afghanistan. Much was revealed in investigative reports by the Nine newspapers, which was highlighted during former SAS corporal Ben Roberts-Smith’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-win-for-the-press-a-big-loss-for-ben-roberts-smith-what-does-this-judgment-tell-us-about-defamation-law-206759">recent defamation case</a>. </p>
<p>The legal system will likely soon be dealing with a wave of war crimes charges arising from the Brereton Report and the work of the Office of the Special Investigator and Australian Federal Police.</p>
<p>Australia has no recent history of war crimes trials involving Australian soldiers. However, following the second world war, Australia was involved in the International Military Tribunal for the Far East in Tokyo, which was established to prosecute Japanese war crimes suspects. Japanese soldiers were also prosecuted between 1945 and 1951 in Australian military courts. </p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-20/nazi-war-criminals-in-australia-and-the-case-of-polyukhovich/9756454">Ivan Polyukhovich</a>, a former Nazi soldier who became an Australian citizen in 1958, was put on trial in Australia for alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine between 1942-43. He was ultimately acquitted by the South Australian Supreme Court in 1993. </p>
<p>Australia may now be on the brink of its first modern war crimes trial, though, with the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/exsoldier-has-bail-varied-over-alleged-wartime-murder-of-afghan-villager/news-story/538d440ba3b32c5a826513ba4ae27e46">prosecution of Oliver Schulz</a>. </p>
<p>The Australian legal system is about to be severely tested. As difficult as these legal processes may well be for the nation, the public will have a legitimate expectation these allegations are scrutinised in court. Lambie’s actions have reinforced that expectation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The ICC was only ever intended as a court of last resort, meaning it will only investigate and prosecute people for alleged war crimes when a country is unwilling or unable to do so itself.Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041292023-04-20T05:27:07Z2023-04-20T05:27:07ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Labor MP Marion Scrymgour on the Voice and the need for a new NT jobs program<p>With the Liberal Party formally opposing the Voice, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton last week kicked off his no campaign in Alice Springs. His claim that child sexual abuse is rife was quickly under attack from the government and others who accused him of politicking, using the issue as a political football.</p>
<p>Marion Scrymgour, a former deputy chief minister in the Northern Territory, is the federal Labor member for the seat of Lingiari, an electorate covering almost all the NT outside Darwin. </p>
<p>Scrymgour says Dutton is taking up the same theme as was heard in the Northern Territory intervention. “The same campaign that was done to justify the intervention is the same campaign that’s been happening with the Leader of the Opposition. </p>
<p>"I’m not saying that he doesn’t have a commitment to getting this issue dealt with,” she says. But she rejects the “excuse” by Dutton, his new shadow minister for Indigenous Australians, Jacinta Price and others that “he can’t put forward the names”. </p>
<p>“That’s a complete abrogation of their responsibility. Those stories and the names of people putting forward those stories could be done in a confidential way.”</p>
<p>Scrymgour has proposed a statutory Family Responsibility Commission, as operates in Queensland. “I think that the important part of the Family Responsibility Commission is that it’s Aboriginal community-controlled, that you get Aboriginal people, Aboriginal leaders that go through a vetting process.</p>
<p>"The families are brought before the commission: they look at school attendance, they look at all of the wellbeing of the child […] but also what are the supports that the family needs to be wrapped around.</p>
<p>"The family has to sign a family responsibility agreement and then those agreements get entered into by both the commissioner, who has legal standing, as well as the family”.</p>
<p>There has been a push lately, including from Senate crossbencher Jacqui Lambie, to reinstate a former employment program to bring jobs, skills and pride back the communities in the NT.</p>
<p>Scrymgour tells the podcast: “We need to get beyond talking about this […] and actually get this program rolled out. I agree with Jacqui Lambie.</p>
<p>"This is a program that was in the Northern Territory almost 15 years ago. Everyone in a lot of the communities were employed and communities were happy and healthy and we need to hurry up […] and we need to move on that.”</p>
<p>Scrymgour, who immediately before the podcast had been talking about the Voice in remote communities, admits there is a vast array of opinion on the ground, and more information and clarity is needed.</p>
<p>“Look, you’ve got people who’ve got different views in a lot of the communities and I’ve just come back from my own community on the on the Tiwi Islands, and there was some great discussion and support for the Voice. But before that support came, people needed to know about it.”</p>
<p>She does, however, believe the “vibe is good” on the ground and in the community.</p>
<p>“The vibe was really good. I found the vibe really, really interesting yesterday. It was good. There were people who weren’t convinced, but people who sort of didn’t understand it. And then when I talked about what was different about constitutional recognition and how that would apply, it generated the discussion about ATSIC [Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission], because a lot of communities still remember ATSIC, and often people talk about ATSIC and they say that they got rid of it and that was their voice. So it then generates another discussion about that. But this Voice won’t be able to be got rid of like that because it’ll be embedded in the Constitution.</p>
<p>"A lot of the Land Council men, you know, sort of stood up and said, Oh, well, we don’t agree with what you’re saying. We think that we’ve just got to talk about this. And, you know, this is a good thing. Let’s talk about how this could be something that we can all get behind.</p>
<p>"So I’m going to set another time where I can go back and sit down with my mob and go through it. But I’ll do that with all the communities.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, Michelle Grattan and Marion Scrymgour discuss Alice Springs, the Voice and other issues facing the Northern Territory.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2027222023-03-28T03:47:08Z2023-03-28T03:47:08ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Lambie urges return of former employment program for Indigenous communities<p>Senator Lidia Thorpe’s defection from the Greens changed the power dynamic in the Senate. Now the government needs two crossbenchers (and the Greens) to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition. Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie and her colleague Tammy Tyrrell can provide those two votes, which puts them in a potentially strong bargaining position.</p>
<p>Lambie has never been afraid to call things how she see’s them. She recently visited Alice Springs and urged the situation needed some “tough love”.</p>
<p>In this podcast Lambie urges a return to the old Community Development Employment Projects program for Indigenous communities. Under the CDEP people exchanged unemployment benefits for work and training managed by a local Indigenous community organisations. “I don’t know how many of these places I’ve visited in the Indigenous communities over the last nine years where they just so much praise that old jobs program.”</p>
<p>“This is where the Indigenous [people were] taught to build their own communities. [Where] we have young Indigenous kids out there that are getting apprenticeships and therefore they’re staying in their communities and they start looking after their communities.” </p>
<p>Lambie says the government wants to say the Voice is going to make a difference. “Well, here’s the voice of the people for nine years. Start moving on these sort of programs. They work and they work really well. You’re talking about you want to build all these thousands of new Indigenous homes. This is the perfect time to grab the bull by the horns and run with this old CDE program. It needs to be restarted. You get those skill sets and they stay in the communities”.</p>
<p>Lambie is taking a cautious approach to the Voice, with her view to be driven by her Tasmanian constituency.</p>
<p>“I have to say to you, Michelle, no, I don’t [have a view]”, although she has no problem with the wording Anthony Albanese has announced. </p>
<p>Lambie has found this government better to deal with than the Morrison one, and noticed a much improved atmosphere in Canberra. </p>
<p>“Compared to them [the former government] it’s actually been quite delightful. So as long as they stay honest and the trust remains – hopefully that will remain. </p>
<p>You know, towards that last election walking into this building nearly made me feel sick to the stomach. And if there’d been any more people in dark clothes, I would have thought in those last half a dozen sitting weeks I was attending a funeral up here. That is what it was like – it was god awful.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan sits down with Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie to chat about Alice Springs, The Voice to Parliament, Indigenous employment and the Stage 3 tax cutsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1996062023-02-09T10:22:10Z2023-02-09T10:22:10ZGrattan on Friday: Aston byelection will test Peter Dutton’s ability to campaign on Victoria’s tough terrain<p>The Melbourne outer suburban seat of Aston, set for a byelection after former Liberal minister Alan Tudge’s resignation, has already made its mark on history. </p>
<p>The Howard government was on the ropes in 2001 when Aston’s then Liberal MP, Peter Nugent, died suddenly of a heart attack. The July byelection was hard-fought but the Liberals hung on. There were other, more important, events on the road to John Howard’s November election win, but the Aston victory has gone down in the narrative as a crucial turning point.</p>
<p>Now Peter Dutton faces his own Aston test, which comes with risks and opportunities.</p>
<p>The risks for the opposition leader are obvious. Dutton’s natural stomping ground is Queensland. Victorians don’t much like him. He didn’t venture into the recent state election. A loss would be catastrophic for him.</p>
<p>Dutton will be relieved Josh Frydenberg doesn’t have his eye on Aston. If the former treasurer were the candidate, the media chatter from now until the byelection would be about the implications for the Liberal leadership if Frydenberg were back in the parliament. </p>
<p>Frydenberg’s decision is wise. Given the volatility of politics these days, he couldn’t be certain of winning and if he did, the resulting destabilisation in the Liberals would only benefit Labor. It’s better for Frydenberg to wait and re-contest Kooyong, where teal independent Monique Ryan might be vulnerable next time. </p>
<p>While Dutton has most on the line in Aston, the byelection (likely to be after Easter, in April) will in part give an early “real time” reading on whether cost-of-living issues are harming the Albanese government. This is despite the fact Aston, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green, is no longer the mortgage-belt seat of old.</p>
<p>Aston voters showed their disapproval of Tudge, Scott Morrison and the Liberals last year with a swing of more than 7%, leaving the seat on a 2.8% margin. Green observes that one would expect it to revert to a more comfortable position on the Liberal spectrum. </p>
<p>But in politics perceptions matter. If Dutton secured a decent swing after a strong “cost of living” campaign it would be a morale boost for the Liberals and shine attention on the potential damage that issue – not yet hitting Labor in the polls – could do in vulnerable government seats. </p>
<p>Labor knows the financial squeeze on families is a slow burn. ALP national secretary Paul Erickson, in a briefing this week, told caucus members the most important issue voters want the federal government to focus on is helping households with their cost of living.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/alan-tudge-quits-parliament-prompting-byelection-test-for-peter-dutton-199594">Alan Tudge quits parliament, prompting byelection test for Peter Dutton</a>
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<p>The Tudge resignation was the second shock of 2023’s first federal parliamentary week. </p>
<p>Senator Lidia Thorpe’s jump from Greens to crossbench has made the Senate much trickier for the government to manage. </p>
<p>The biggest loser immediately is ACT independent David Pocock. Until this week, Pocock had been Labor’s automatic port of call for the single vote it needed from the non-Green crossbench to pass legislation supported by the Greens but opposed by the Coalition. </p>
<p>The government and Pocock have had a cosy relationship. He’s a progressive, broadly aligned with Labor in his views. </p>
<p>He’s not difficult to negotiate with, although he’s wanted his political money’s worth, so has extracted some concessions in exchange for his vote. One was important. The prime minister agreed to set up a committee to report publicly before each budget on the adequacy of income support payments. Jim Chalmers will soon be wrestling with the first of those reports.</p>
<p>With Thorpe’s defection the government requires two non-Greens crossbenchers to secure contested legislation (although Thorpe says she will vote with the Greens on climate bills). </p>
<p>Pocock says the change in the Senate’s makeup “increases all of our capacity to push the government for more ambition and better outcomes on contested legislation”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-david-pocock-has-only-just-arrived-in-the-senate-and-now-hes-negotiating-with-the-pm-195295">Grattan on Friday: David Pocock has only just arrived in the Senate and now he's negotiating with the PM</a>
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<p>In fact, the net effect is to reduce his capacity and boost that of Tasmanian crossbencher Jacqui Lambie, who commands two votes.</p>
<p>Labor can’t in practical terms look to Pauline Hanson and her Senate offsider, Malcolm Roberts, or Victorian UAP senator Ralph Babet. Thorpe will likely be a challenge, and could only provide one vote anyway. </p>
<p>Lambie and her colleague, Tammy Tyrrell, can give the government the numbers it needs on particular pieces of legislation. From the government’s point of view, this would means just a single negotiation (as distinct from the double negotiation needed to get, say, Pocock and Thorpe).</p>
<p>Lambie will be delighted to be back at the centre of things. In recent months she has been overshadowed by Pocock. </p>
<p>But in negotiations she can be difficult, demanding and at times shrill, and is at odds with Labor on some issues, such as aspects of industrial relations. She has been questioning on the Voice. The government may try to work through the easier-going Tyrrell where it can.</p>
<p>Apart from legislation, the altered numbers give the Senate more scope for making trouble for the government. The Coalition and the seven non-Green crossbenchers now have the numbers to form an absolute majority. </p>
<p>Though Thorpe has dealt herself into the Senate play, there will be constraints on her. She’d presumably find it hard in ordinary circumstances to vote with the Coalition on legislation, and if she abstains, the government will be back to needing only a single extra vote to pass contested bills (cue Pocock).</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/lidia-thorpes-defection-from-the-greens-will-make-passing-legislation-harder-for-labor-199299">Lidia Thorpe's defection from the Greens will make passing legislation harder for Labor</a>
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<p>Thorpe’s defection has also increased the ability of the opposition to exert influence in the legislative process. Given the greater Senate uncertainty, the government may on occasion prefer to wrangle the Coalition rather than the crossbenchers.</p>
<p>We saw that this week when Anthony Albanese agreed to Dutton’s call to change the referendum machinery bill, so the usual pamphlet outlining the yes and no cases would be sent out. </p>
<p>The concession is welcome. The government’s argument that the pamphlet is unnecessary because everything is on the internet was spurious, not least because voters in remote communities, who have a special interest in the Voice, probably have poor access to the internet.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the Senate this week delivered the government a first significant parliamentary defeat. </p>
<p>In a vote that saw even the Greens deserting Labor, the Senate disallowed its removal of the requirement for superannuation funds to provide detailed information on how they spend members’ money. </p>
<p>The Senate vote, on a motion lodged by Lambie, was a victory for transparency – something Labor professes to support. As the late Don Chipp, founder of the long-gone Australian Democrats might have said, it was a case of the Senate, and particularly the crossbench, “keeping the bastards honest”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now Peter Dutton faces his own Aston test, which comes with risks and opportunities.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1994042023-02-07T05:48:41Z2023-02-07T05:48:41ZWord from The Hill: Government should set date for Voice to start talking<p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn discuss the Reserve Bank’s latest (but not last) interest rate rise, Lidia Thorpe’s defection to the crossbench, which potentially benefits Jacqui Lambie, the reintroduction of alcohol bans in Alice Springs and other Northern Territory communities, and Peter Dutton’s tactics on the Voice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn discuss the RBA rate rise, Lidia Thorpe's defection to the crossbench and the ongoing Voice debateMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795672022-04-11T19:57:26Z2022-04-11T19:57:26ZPopulism and the federal election: what can we expect from Hanson, Palmer, Lambie and Katter?<p>Populist politicians have been household names in Australian politics over the past decade, from Pauline Hanson to Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and Jacqui Lambie. </p>
<p>They tend to only get a small amount of the popular vote – between them, at the last election, they attracted 7% of first preferences in the House of Representatives and 8.32% of the Senate vote. Yet they can play a big role on the Senate crossbench and can get significant concessions regarding their pet issues.</p>
<p>They can also change the tenor of politics in Australia, and the way their preferences fall - or how they spend their advertising dollars - can make or break close electoral races.</p>
<p>But where do these populist parties – who all <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">claim to speak for “the people” against “the elite”</a> – sit as we begin the 2022 federal election? </p>
<h2>Who are the main players to watch out for?</h2>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Jacqui Lambie Network are all fielding candidates in the upper and lower house elections. </p>
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<img alt="Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie in the senate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie say on senate crossbench together during the last parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, two of these parties have sought to capitalise on anti-vaccination and anti-COVID vaccine mandate sentiments. </p>
<p>The United Australia Party has made this its core - maybe even single - issue. As you have surely seen on those yellow billboards, the party is promising “freedom” from the COVID restrictions and mandates of the past years. Meanwhile, party leader (and former Liberal MP) <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-craig-kellys-defection-leaves-government-with-razor-thin-majority-155897">Craig Kelly</a> spruiks <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013587.pub2/full">hydroxychloroquine</a>) and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ivermectin-is-a-nobel-prize-winning-wonder-drug-but-not-for-covid-19-168449">ivermectin</a> as COVID treatments, despite evidence showing they’re not effective.</p>
<p>He is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">tipped to spend</a> A$70 million on the campaign. In 2019, Palmer spent a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">record $84 million</a> without winning a seat, but claimed his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-2019-clive-palmer-says-uap-ads-gave-coalition-win/11128160">anti-Shorten ads</a> “shifted” voters away from Labor. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-spot-if-someone-is-trying-to-mislead-you-when-it-comes-to-science-138814">5 ways to spot if someone is trying to mislead you when it comes to science</a>
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<p>One Nation has also tried to capitalise on the anti-vaccination movement’s prominence. While it is pushing its usual anti-immigration talking points, it has supplemented these with anti-mandate messaging, with Hanson and senator Malcolm Roberts appearing at anti-vaccine rallies in Canberra.</p>
<p>The other two populist parties are relying on their regional appeal.</p>
<p>The Jacqui Lambie Network is hoping to extend the former independent’s appeal more widely across Tasmania. The party’s message is all about making life better for the “underdog” – combining an anti-corruption message with campaigns for better healthcare, education and opportunities for young people and workers in Tasmania.</p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party, meanwhile, portrays on a division between “the people” of rural Australia (particularly Far North Queensland) and the distant “elite” of Canberra and the big cities. As usual, it will be focusing on regional development, agricultural subsidies and ensuring FNQ gets fair treatment.</p>
<h2>What has changed since 2019?</h2>
<p>Coronavirus has markedly shifted the political, social and economic landscape since the last federal election.</p>
<p>Australia’s closed borders for much of 2020 and 2021 has made the anti-immigration position of One Nation less salient and effective, so it is no wonder they have pivoted to an anti-COVID mandate position to try and extend their appeal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-curtains-for-clive-what-covid-means-for-populism-in-australia-153101">Is it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia </a>
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<p>Meanwhile, the United Australia Party has completely rebuilt itself around the issue, moving from its almost singularly “Stop Bill Shorten” message in 2019.</p>
<p>Beyond this, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-government-misunderstands-the-role-of-the-public-service-130796">repeated rorts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-government-faces-battle-over-integrity-commission-it-doesnt-really-want-169473">integrity scandals</a> during the Morrison government have given fuel to populists (as well as numerous independent candidates) to push for more transparency in politics.</p>
<h2>What are the key races to watch?</h2>
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<img alt="Clive Palmer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer is vying to re-enter federal parliament as a Queensland senator.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Other than Katter, who has held the seat of Kennedy since 1993, it is highly unlikely populist parties are going to have any success in the House of Representatives (despite the United Australia Party’s <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/fastest-growing-political-party-in-australian-history/">claim</a> Kelly will be the next prime minister). </p>
<p>The Senate is where things will be interesting. The Queensland senate race is the big one for populists, with the two most prominent populist politicians in the country - Hanson and Palmer - running for what will likely be the sixth seat in the state. They also face competition from former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (running for the Liberal Democrats this time around).</p>
<p>The final seat in some other states will also be worth watching. In Tasmania, the Jacqui Lambie Network is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/from-lambies-loud-girl-to-ericmentum-tasmanias-fierce-senate-race-is-a-taste-of-whats-to-come">throwing its resources</a> behind the campaign of Tammy Tyrell, their lead Senate candidate. Tyrell is a long-time office manager and advisor to Lambie (who is not up for re-election this time). </p>
<p>The Tasmanian Senate contest could see either see Liberal Eric Abetz, Tyrell, the United Australia Party or newcomers the Local Party take the seat. There’s also a very slim (but possible) chance One Nation or United Australia Party could win the sixth seat in New South Wales and Western Australia.</p>
<h2>What are the key unknowns?</h2>
<p>There are two big questions about populism in 2022. </p>
<p>First, has the political potency of the anti-vaccination/anti-lockdown message passed? As we enter the so-called era of “COVID-normal”, where restrictions are wound back and lockdowns are supposedly a thing of the past, it is unclear whether the United Australia Party and One Nation have backed the right horse at the right time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bob Katter (pictured here with Pauline Hanson) has stepped down as leader of his party, but is re-contesting the seat he has held for almost 30 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, are voters sick of the mainstream parties, or sick of the Morrison government? Populists prosper when there is a widespread sense of political malaise, but time will tell if they want to punish the political class in general, thus leading to a populist upswing, or the Morrison government specifically – in which we can expect much of that frustration to filter to a vote for Labor and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wentworth-project-polling-shows-voters-prefer-albanese-for-pm-and-put-climate-issue-first-in-teal-battle-179839">“teal” independents</a>.</p>
<p>Whether this is going to be a good election for populist parties in Australia remains to be seen: stay tuned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Moffitt receives funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funding scheme and from the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.</span></em></p>Clive Palmer is back trying to win a Senate seat, while Jacqui Lambie is aiming to get a second senator elected.Benjamin Moffitt, Associate Professor, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1723162021-11-22T10:12:49Z2021-11-22T10:12:49ZView from The Hill: Scott Morrison trips on a truth test<p>With the opposition and other critics homing in on the issues of his character and integrity, Scott Morrison on Monday played right into their hands.</p>
<p>It was question time on the first day of parliament’s final sitting fortnight for the year (and incidentally, the last day the much-respected Tony Smith would be in the Speaker’s chair).</p>
<p>The issue was an old one, that had been canvassed before, giving all the more reason why the prime minister should have been careful with his words.</p>
<p>Labor MP Fiona Phillips, from the NSW marginal seat of Gilmore (which the government hopes to reclaim) asked Morrison why, when her electorate was burning in the bushfires of 2019, his office told journalists he wasn’t on holiday in Hawaii.</p>
<p>Morrison replied that he’d texted Anthony Albanese “from the plane when I was going on that leave, and told him where I was going and he was fully aware of where I was travelling with my family”.</p>
<p>Half of this was untrue, as Albanese knew full well. Morrison had not said “where” he was going at all. There were some angry exchanges across the table.</p>
<p>After question time, Albanese in a personal explanation said Morrison had not indicated his destination in the text.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-gives-religious-discrimination-bill-priority-over-national-integrity-commission-172166">Grattan on Friday: Morrison gives religious discrimination bill priority over national integrity commission</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Morrison then made his looseness-with-the-truth worse, redefining the meaning of “where”.</p>
<p>“Where I was going was on leave, Mr Speaker, and that was the important thing I sent to the leader of the opposition. […] I told him I was taking leave.”</p>
<p>But soon after, Morrison or his advisers realised the need to get the carpet sweeper out. The PM made another intervention.</p>
<p>In a rare admission, he told the House: “I wish to add to an answer. I want to confirm what the leader of the opposition said, that in that text I did not tell him the destination of where I was going on leave with my family.</p>
<p>"I simply communicated to him that I was taking leave.</p>
<p>"When I was referring to, ‘He knew where I was going and was fully aware I was travelling with my family,’ what I meant was that we were going on leave together.</p>
<p>"I know I didn’t tell him where we were going because, Mr Speaker, that is a private matter where members take leave, and I know I didn’t tell him the destination – nor would I and nor would he expect me to have told him where he [sic] was going.</p>
<p>"I simply confirmed to him that I was taking leave with my family and he was aware of that at that time.”</p>
<p>This is extraordinary. First the PM says he told Albanese “where” he was going and emphasised the point. Then, pushed onto the back foot, he admits he didn’t tell him that and says neither of them would have expected him to do so. It was a spectacular example of Morrison’s penchant to slip and slide around things, but one that, given the written evidence and his own logic, was always going to end badly. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-scott-morrison-caught-in-catch-22-over-the-issue-of-his-integrity-171750">View from The Hill: Scott Morrison caught in catch-22 over the issue of his integrity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>This wasn’t the only untidiness of the day.</p>
<p>In the Senate, five government senators crossed the floor to support Pauline Hanson’s bill to ban discrimination against the unvaccinated. The bill covered federal, state and territory government and the private sector.</p>
<p>Those Coalition senators who voted for the bill were two former ministers, Matt Canavan and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, as well as Alex Antic, Gerard Rennick and Sam McMahon.</p>
<p>Ironically Hanson could not vote for her own bill, defeated 5-44, because she was participating in parliament remotely, which doesn’t permit casting a vote. She had to confine herself to a fiery speech, that was matched by an opposing one from another crossbencher, Jacqui Lambie, who launched a ferocious attack on One Nation.</p>
<p>Hanson said: “State governments are relishing this extraordinary power to command and control […]</p>
<p>"The Victorian government relishes this power so much
they’re trying to permanently enshrine it in law, giving the premier unprecedented authority to act like a dictator – and still the prime minister has done nothing to stop this discrimination.”</p>
<p>But Lambie said: “If you want to champion against discrimination, you don’t want One Nation”.</p>
<p>“One Nation is not a fighter against discrimination. One Nation seeks to profit from it. It’s just a fundraising exercise for them and that’s all this is.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/white-supremacist-and-far-right-ideology-underpin-anti-vax-movements-172289">White supremacist and far right ideology underpin anti-vax movements</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Morrison had facilitated the bill being considered in an attempt to mollify Hanson, who is opposing government legislation generally over the vaccine mandate issue. Despite this gesture, she is maintaining her position.</p>
<p>Senators Rennick and Antic are withholding their votes from the government over the same issue, making the outlook in the Senate chaotic for this fortnight.</p>
<p>On Tuesday the Coalition party room will get the government’s religious discrimination legislation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison has again had his integrity questioned over his decision to provide loose-with-the-truth answers during question timeMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1664062021-08-26T18:12:17Z2021-08-26T18:12:17ZBook extract: ‘Broken’ — requiem for the family court<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417351/original/file-20210823-19-14zqvp9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">April Fonti/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On September 1, the Family Court of Australia will merge with the Federal Circuit Court. The Morrison government says this will “help reduce delays and backlogs in the family law courts”. However, the merger has been strenuously opposed by legal and family violence experts, who note Australia will be without a specialist, stand alone family court for the first time since the 1970s.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from Broken, a new book by media academics Camilla Nelson and Catharine Lumby that explores the family court system.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>In the early 1980s, the newly established Family Court of Australia — “<a href="https://acuresearchbank.acu.edu.au/item/86vzq/born-in-hope-the-early-years-of-the-family-court-of-australia">born in hope</a>”, and ideals of conciliation — was hit by a series of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-03/family-court-bomber-leonard-warwick-jailed-for-life/12624080">violent attacks</a> in Sydney. </p>
<p>A judge was shot dead outside his home, and a string of lethal bombings followed. </p>
<p>One injured a judge and two school-age children while they slept, demolishing almost half of their quiet suburban home. Another killed a judge’s wife when she opened her front door. A third bomb exploded outside the family court building in Parramatta, and a fourth detonated inside a church hall, killing a member of the congregation, and seriously injuring 13 others, including children.</p>
<p>The murders and bombings remained unsolved until 2015, when Leonard Warwick was finally charged. His murderous rampage followed a legal dispute with his ex-wife over care of their five-year-old daughter. </p>
<p>His attacks on the family court indicated a fiercely held belief in his “right” to control his family. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/03/family-court-bomber-leonard-warwick-73-sentenced-to-three-life-terms">sentencing</a> Warwick, Justice Peter Garling acknowledged the political dimensions of the crimes, saying it “cannot be viewed as anything other than an attack on the very foundations of Australian democracy”. </p>
<p>Yet, after the bombs went off, commentators of the day did not condemn Warwick’s violence, but the court instead. Elizabeth Evatt, then chief justice of the family court, explained, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>They said, “The Court has been bombed, what’s wrong with the Court?”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Successful terrorism</h2>
<p>The family court bombings were remarkable in that they were successful as acts of terrorism. Although commentators at the time readily acknowledged the murders were wrong, many made excuses on behalf of the perpetrator. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="The cover of the book 'Broken' by Camilla Nelson and Catharine Lumby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417349/original/file-20210823-23-vvr9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417349/original/file-20210823-23-vvr9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417349/original/file-20210823-23-vvr9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417349/original/file-20210823-23-vvr9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417349/original/file-20210823-23-vvr9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417349/original/file-20210823-23-vvr9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417349/original/file-20210823-23-vvr9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Black Inc.</span></span>
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<p>In the media, the violence was rationalised as the actions of a man who had been treated unfairly — of a man who, as The Sydney Morning Herald reported, was “extremely distressed by a decision of the court”. The paper called for a “fundamental reappraisal” of the new court, opining, “There must be something seriously wrong with the Family Court system for such an outrage to occur”.</p>
<p>According to The Bulletin, the family court was “too much of a revolution” and the bombings had “exposed serious flaws in our divorce machinery”. Warwick’s rampage was explained in much the same way as domestic abuse is explained: as the inevitable reactions of a “distressed” man who had been driven too far. The Australian said, “No wonder the man often feels a sense of rage.”</p>
<p>Almost immediately, then Attorney-General Gareth Evans sent a letter to activists in the nascent men’s rights movement, offering them a seat at the policy-making table by asking them what changes they would like to see to the court. This willingness of the Hawke Labor government to take the bomber’s “message” on board set the scene for the hijacking of family law that would reach its apogee under Liberal prime minister John Howard. </p>
<p>By the time the Howard government took office on a “family values” platform in 1996 — with a campaign brochure that featured a pastel-coloured drawing of a house with a white picket fence — the stage was set for a reform agenda that effectively elevated the claims of perpetrators above domestic abuse victims’ claims to safety. It would irrevocably change the culture of the court, so the court’s founding ideals would seem like a distant memory.</p>
<h2>Howard era changes</h2>
<p>Of Howard’s changes to the family court, one of the least discussed was the creation of the Federal Magistrates Court in 1999, renamed the Federal Circuit Court in 2013. This week, it becomes the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia, following the abolition of the standalone family court. The Federal Magistrate’s Court was <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/QUTLawJJl/2003/22.html">designed</a> to be “a lean, cost-effective court” — imposing a technocratic, financially rationalised form of justice on affected families.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-still-wants-a-family-court-merger-new-research-shows-why-this-is-not-the-answer-151481">The government still wants a Family Court merger — new research shows why this is not the answer</a>
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<p>Cases were to be solved swiftly and easily, often brutally. And this new managerialist behemoth progressively took over <a href="http://www.federalcircuitcourt.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/22d7697a-8f09-42d7-b209-7674790aaf3e/Federal+Circuit+Court+Annual+Report+201920_WEB.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=">90% of the family court’s caseload</a>, transforming the practice of family law beyond recognition. Federal Circuit Court cases are rapid and hectic, with minimal transparency. </p>
<p>In 40% of family law matters, one or both parties will be <a href="https://www.anrows.org.au/publication/no-straight-lines-self-represented-litigants-in-family-law-proceedings-involving-allegations-about-family-violence/">self-represented</a>. Studies show the most common reason for parties to self-represent is that they cannot afford escalating legal fees. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-still-wants-a-family-court-merger-new-research-shows-why-this-is-not-the-answer-151481">recent study</a> by Jane Wangmann, Tracey Booth and Miranda Kaye, one lawyer described the Federal Circuit Court as a “zoo”, in which everybody struggles to understand what is going on because “there’s so many people and it’s so noisy and it’s so confusing”. </p>
<p>One self-represented litigant told researchers that judges “push to settle”. They say, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Just get it out of my court room, I don’t want to deal with this, get it out. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another self-represented litigant said the judge asked her, “Why haven’t you settled, why haven’t you settled this yet?” The judge added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m sick to death of people who won’t negotiate. Get out there and negotiate or I’m just going to flip a coin.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>‘An absolute fantasy’</h2>
<p>It should be unsurprising that parties to these proceedings frequently conclude that justice has not been served. </p>
<p>Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie — for all her populist, political complexity — seems to be one of the few politicians who has recently stepped inside one of the nation’s hyper-rationalised lower-tier courts. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Independent senator Jacqui Lambie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417936/original/file-20210826-24-xt4y5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417936/original/file-20210826-24-xt4y5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417936/original/file-20210826-24-xt4y5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417936/original/file-20210826-24-xt4y5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417936/original/file-20210826-24-xt4y5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417936/original/file-20210826-24-xt4y5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417936/original/file-20210826-24-xt4y5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Independent senator Jacqui Lambie has blasted the family court merger.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>She tried to convey the sense of shock in an <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/b9b4d54c-068c-443a-852c-30cd8a038967/&sid=0014">excoriating speech</a> to parliament in February 2021 as the Senate debated the bill that would ultimately secure the courts merger.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Maybe you’re thinking of a system where the bad guys get locked up and the good guys are quickly let go. In the back of your mind, you possibly have an idea that everybody has a high-powered lawyer in an expensive suit — and, my goodness, are they expensive. … If that’s what you’re thinking, you aren’t alone; that’s how I used to think our court system worked as well. Oh dear. It’s funny when you have life experience of something … <strong>nb small cut to quote here</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>In reality, judges are overworked and under-resourced, and therefore — as Lambie put it — forced to “churn through [family law matters] as though they’re on a production line”. In a memorable image, she likened the work of the judiciary to flipping greasy meals like “someone in a burger joint”.</p>
<p>The 2006 reforms included funding for already existing family support services, such as Relationships Australia, and the establishment of a new network of Family Relationship Centres. After this, separating parents increasingly began to turn to mediation to settle their differences, rather than the courts, reaching negotiated agreements through intermediaries. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-family-court-does-need-reform-but-not-the-way-pauline-hanson-thinks-125728">The family court does need reform, but not the way Pauline Hanson thinks</a>
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<hr>
<p>This turn to non-legal mediation and non-adversarial settlement has been pronounced, creating emotionally better, more affordable outcomes for families, although funding for the sector has dwindled dramatically and fails to meet demand. </p>
<p>At the same time, domestic abuse has become the central issue in the cases that continue to be brought before the family courts.</p>
<h2>A ‘Rolls Royce’ system for the rich and another for everyone else</h2>
<p>In Australia, <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/publications/parenting-arrangements-after-separation">97% of separating families</a> do not go to court, although 16% use mediation, counselling and lawyers to settle their disputes. </p>
<p>The remaining 3% of separating parents who are compelled to use the courts as their main pathway to making children’s arrangements are predominately families affected by domestic abuse, child safety concerns and complex risk factors, including drug and alcohol abuse and mental health issues. </p>
<p>Up to 85% of litigated family law matters involve <a href="https://www.alrc.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/alrc_report_135_final_report_web-min_12_optimized_1-1.pdf">domestic abuse</a>. This figure includes 54% of families reporting physical violence, 50% reporting safety concerns, and 85% reporting emotional abuse. There are no reliable figures for financial abuse, but this is a frequent feature of all domestic abuse cases.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Mother and small child climbing steps." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417935/original/file-20210825-13-19x6tfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417935/original/file-20210825-13-19x6tfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417935/original/file-20210825-13-19x6tfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417935/original/file-20210825-13-19x6tfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417935/original/file-20210825-13-19x6tfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417935/original/file-20210825-13-19x6tfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417935/original/file-20210825-13-19x6tfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If family law matters do go to court, most involve domestic abuse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span>
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<p>One of the many glaring problems in the courts is that the law has been written with less troubled families in mind.</p>
<p>It is a little-known fact that 49% of cases before the “specialist” Family Court are property matters. In practice, outside specialist lists — such as the <a href="https://www.michaellynchfamilylawyers.com.au/what-is-the-magellan-list/">Magellan list</a> for “serious” child abuse — and the hearing of appeals, cases are commonly transferred from the allegedly “less specialist” Federal Circuit Court to the allegedly “more specialist” Family Court because they involve complex decision-making around taxation, superannuation, or companies and trusts. </p>
<p>Effectively, this means affluent families have their cases heard in what has long been dubbed the “<a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/QUTLawJJl/2003/22.html">Rolls Royce</a>” system of the family court. And the less affluent — including domestic abuse cases with aggravating factors such as drug and alcohol addiction or mental illness — are more frequently heard by commercially trained judges in the hyper-rationalised Federal Circuit Court. </p>
<p>This includes judges with little specific family law experience. Or as Lambie put it in her speech, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Here is the divide between the rich and the poor.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The court merger will do little to change any of this.</p>
<p><em>Broken is released on August 30, via Black Inc.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166406/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camilla Nelson receives funding as EG Whitlam Research Fellow at the Whitlam Institute at Western Sydney University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catharine Lumby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new book looks at the family court system, just as the Family Court of Australia merges with the Federal Circuit Court.Camilla Nelson, Associate Professor in Media, University of Notre Dame AustraliaCatharine Lumby, Professor of Media, Department of Media, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1575822021-03-22T08:09:35Z2021-03-22T08:09:35ZOne veteran on average dies by suicide every 2 weeks. This is what a royal commission needs to look at<p>This is an important day for the veteran community. After five years of campaigning for a royal commission, parliament has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-22/parliament-backs-royal-commission-for-veteran-suicides/100021274">backed a motion</a> to establish one. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has also signalled he would no longer oppose the move. </p>
<p>For at least two decades, there have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/enough-inquiries-that-go-nowhere-its-time-for-a-royal-commission-into-veteran-suicide-119599">numerous inquiries</a> into veteran suicide, institutional abuse, mental health, the transition from military to civilian life, and combat trauma — with little positive outcome.</p>
<p>More Australian veterans have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-open-to-royal-commission-into-veteran-suicides-20210321-p57cme.html">lost their lives by suicide</a> than have been killed on active duty since ADF personnel were first deployed to Afghanistan in 2001. </p>
<p>In October and November of last year alone, nine veterans <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-06/veteran-suicide-spike-worries-covid19-war-crimes-brereton-report/12947234">took their lives</a>, leading Senator Jacqui Lambie to argue veteran suicides should be treated as “one of Australia’s most pressing problems”. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/this-cannot-continue-to-happen-another-adf-veteran-suicide/news-story/783ee346af65063751c4422067745326">Thirteen veterans</a> have tragically taken their life so far this year.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.change.org/p/a-royal-commission-into-the-veteran-suicide-rate-in-australia">petition</a> calling for a royal commission into veteran suicide — led by the families of those who have lost their lives — has garnered more than 400,000 signatures. </p>
<p>Yet, despite the urgent need and popular support for the idea, a royal commission didn’t have the political support of the Morrison government until this week.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1368920699289690112"}"></div></p>
<h2>The government’s initial response seen as inadequate</h2>
<p>Last year, a <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/64a2cab8-19ff-49aa-9390-197a1ec0b81c/aihw-phe-277.pdf.aspx?inline=true">report</a> by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) said </p>
<blockquote>
<p>reducing the rate of serving and ex-serving suicides is a priority of the Australian government. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Despite this recognition, the matter has not been met with a sense of urgency. </p>
<p>In response to calls for a royal commission, the government <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/about-us/what-we-do/national-commissioner-defence-and-veteran-suicide-prevention">established</a> a national commission for defence and veteran suicide prevention, which has largely been seen as inadequate. </p>
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<p>The reaction from former and serving military personnel was also mixed. Critics said the national commission was inferior to a royal commission in terms of its <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/NationalCommissioner2020/Submissions">scope, independence and resources</a>. The timing of the move by the government was also viewed as problematic.</p>
<p>While the role of the national commission is likely necessary to prevent future suicides, we believe a royal commission is still vital to bring attention to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/enough-inquiries-that-go-nowhere-its-time-for-a-royal-commission-into-veteran-suicide-119599">links between</a> veteran suicide and the institutional failures and bureaucratic barriers that are causing harm daily.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/veterans-have-poorer-mental-health-than-australians-overall-we-could-be-serving-them-better-119525">Veterans have poorer mental health than Australians overall. We could be serving them better</a>
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<h2>Data on defence suicides difficult to compile</h2>
<p>There is imprecise and limited research into veteran suicide in Australia. Research commissioned by the Department of Veterans’ Affairs and conducted by AIHW found there were <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/veterans/national-veteran-suicide-monitoring/contents/summary">419 known suicides</a> of serving, ex-serving and reserve defence personnel between 2001-17. </p>
<p>That is on average one death by suicide <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/veterans/national-veteran-suicide-monitoring/contents/summary">every two weeks</a>. </p>
<p>Veteran Scott Harris has compiled statistics on veteran suicides for <a href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWarriorsReturn/">The Warrior’s Return Facebook page</a>, and has counted 731 deaths by suicide over the same period. </p>
<p>The Australian Institute for Suicide Research and Prevention (AISRP) <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/VeteranSuicide/Report/c03">has described</a> the lack of information on veteran suicides as a “serious shortcoming in current knowledge”. The organisation said there is </p>
<blockquote>
<p>very limited research information focusing specifically on suicide mortality, non-fatal suicidal behaviour or suicidal ideation among individuals who have left the [Australian Defence Force]. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Put simply, the sector is flying blind. </p>
<p>We aren’t just lacking data on veteran suicides; there is limited knowledge of veterans in the Australian community more broadly. In fact, questions about veterans will be introduced to the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/2021+census+review+of+topics">census</a> for the first time this year.</p>
<p>A royal commission will enable us to gather information on the defence and veteran communities to help understand their needs and ensure we craft well-targeted policies. </p>
<h2>Five key points to consider for a royal commission</h2>
<p>The terms of reference of the royal commission must be designed by the veteran community, as well as policy-makers and other experts. Significantly, to preclude serving and former ADF members from such an investigation would continue to silence the very people it seeks to help.</p>
<p>We have identified five key points to ensure a rigorous and effective commission process. </p>
<p>1) The terms of reference should include suicidality – not just suicide. <a href="https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/mental-pubs-m-mhaust2-toc%7Emental-pubs-m-mhaust2-hig%7Emental-pubs-m-mhaust2-hig-sui#:%7E:text=The%20term%20suicidality%20covers%20suicidal,suicide%20plans%20and%20suicide%20attempts.">Suicidality</a> is a term that covers both suicide ideation (serious thoughts about taking one’s life) and actual suicide attempts. </p>
<p>2) It should also focus on the structural and institutional systems that contribute to suicidality. This would include the experiences of defence personnel who have struggled to get the support they need both during and after their military service.</p>
<p>For instance, this means looking at the bureaucratic obstacles that have prevented some veterans from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-14/jesse-bird-veteran-affairs-inquiry-finds-failings/9050594">accessing physical, mental and financial support</a> after leaving the ADF, or the institutional practices and structures that <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/australian-defence-force-teri-bailey-took-her-life-on-her-birthday-after-attempted-rape/news-story/e6f2ae78f8438e64576d067af2120a20">encouraged abuse</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-an-army-of-bullies-drove-a-soldier-to-suicide-20030827-gdw8u3.html">bullying, harassment and denigration</a> in the ADF. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-talk-about-suicide-in-the-military-119219">We need to talk about suicide in the military</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>3) The terms of reference should look at the broader practices and processes of the ADF, including but not limited to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the military justice system</p></li>
<li><p>institutional abuse</p></li>
<li><p>military transitions, including at enlistment and discharge from the ADF </p></li>
<li><p>the health care of defence personnel, including the reporting of incidents and management of injuries.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>4) The royal commission must include protective measures for witnesses, akin to the <a href="https://disability.royalcommission.gov.au/public-hearings/witnesses">disability royal commission</a>. Given that both serving ADF members and public service employees are restricted in public comment, potential witnesses are unlikely to come forward and provide evidence without strong protections.</p>
<p>5) The appointment of the commissioners also requires real independence, free from bias. This was a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/NationalCommissioner2020/Report/section?id=committees%2Freportsen%2F024541%2F75539">significant sticking point</a> with the establishment of the interim national commissioner for veteran suicide prevention, Bernadette Boss, who previously held various command and staff roles in the ADF. </p>
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<p>As such, we argue those appointed to the royal commission should have no association with the ADF – both past and present – and a wider background than just mental health.</p>
<p>Morrison said today a royal commission is not a “<a href="https://www.2gb.com/scott-morrison-confirms-support-for-royal-commission-into-veteran-suicides/">silver bullet</a>”, and we tend to agree. </p>
<p>Nobody believes this process will be easy – just that it is necessary. A royal commission, with broad terms of reference, has the capacity to draft a blueprint for the best way forward. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p>
<p><em>Safe Zone Support’s specialist counsellors understand the military and can offer help to veterans and their families without needing to know who you are. Calls to 1800 142 072 are answered 24/7, and are not recorded. For more Information visit: openarms.gov.au/safe-zone-support</em></p>
<p><em>Open Arms is Australia’s leading national provider of high quality mental health assessment, clinical counselling and support services for veterans and their families. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1800 011 046 or visit www.openarms.gov.au.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Morris is affiliated with the Queensland RSL </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Wadham receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He also receives funding from the Department of Veterans Affairs.</span></em></p>There have been numerous inquiries into veteran suicide, mental health and combat trauma over the past 20 years — with little positive outcome.Deborah Morris, Military analyst, Griffith UniversityBen Wadham, Associate Professor, School of Education, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1475682020-10-06T02:35:35Z2020-10-06T02:35:35ZGovernment wins crossbench support for new tertiary fees<p>The government’s controversial changes to higher education fees now appear set to pass the Senate, with Centre Alliance giving its support.</p>
<p>The minor party, whose two federal parliamentarians come from South Australia, has won modest concessions, including 12,000 extra places for students in SA, in return for agreeing to back the bill.</p>
<p>Centre Alliance now has only one Senate crossbencher, Stirling Griff, whose vote will be crucial to get the legislation across the line.</p>
<p>The revamp of fees will mean a major rise in what students have to pay for some courses, including the humanities and law, but reduce the student cost of courses such as nursing and teaching.</p>
<p>The government says the new structure will provide incentives for students to choose courses which are “more job-relevant”.</p>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will vote for the changes, but crossbenchers Jacqui Lambie and Rex Patrick are opposed.</p>
<p>Patrick, an independent who is formerly from Centre Alliance, attacked that party’s education spokeswoman and member for Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie, who negotiated with the government.</p>
<p>After Sharkie said on Twitter she would be “forever grateful” for her arts degree, Patrick tweeted: “So, whilst you are forever grateful for the opportunity afforded you, you don’t care for future students in your electorate or state that might want the same opportunity.”</p>
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<p>The Senate debates the bill on Tuesday, but it is not clear when the vote will take place. If it is not this week, the next opportunity would be in November. The new fees regime is due to start next year.</p>
<p>Sharkie said the reforms would “encourage universities to strengthen industry relationships and produce job-ready graduates”.</p>
<p>The changes have won support in principle from most universities, with calls for specific alterations. But critics attack the bias against the humanities and dispute the government’s claims about the number of new places that will be created.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147568/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Centre Alliance has given its support to the government’s JobReady Graduates bill, which now seems set to pass the Senate.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1316702020-02-12T06:26:02Z2020-02-12T06:26:02ZPauline Hanson stymies bid to hobble Mathias Cormann<p>A bid to hobble Senate leader Mathias Cormann in retaliation for the government’s refusal to produce the report from top public servant Phil Gaetjens on Bridget McKenzie failed after Pauline Hanson withdrew her support and Centre Alliance split.</p>
<p>Under the plan, Cormann would not have been allowed to answer questions in the Senate on behalf of the prime minister, represent him at estimates, or sit at the centre table in the chamber. The ban would have applied until March 6 unless the government tabled the report.</p>
<p>Initially Pauline Hanson signed up to the motion but then at the last moment withdrew her support. One Nation was the decider - if its two votes had stayed with the Labor-initiated motion, it would have passed.</p>
<p>With one Centre Alliance senator abstaining, the vote was lost 35-36.</p>
<p>Centre Alliance’s Rex Patrick spoke strongly in favor of the motion, saying the Senate needed to push back against the government running to a bunker called “cabinet”.</p>
<p>His party colleague Stirling Griff, explaining his abstention, said later he supported the premise behind the motion but the penalty would have had no real consequences other than humiliating Cormann. </p>
<p>Hanson told the Senate on reflection she was against setting a precedent. “Senator Cormann is an elected member of this chamber. He has a right to his place in this chamber,” she said. “It is not up to us to take away that right that was given to him by the Australian people when they voted for him.”</p>
<p>Cormann said the ban proposal was completely unprecedented in the Senate’s history and claimed it exceeded the Senate’s powers.</p>
<p>Earlier this week the government defied a call from the Senate to produce the Gaetjens report on McKenzie’s conduct in the sports rorts affair.</p>
<p>Morrison asked Gaetjens, the secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (and his one-time chief of staff), to advise him on whether she had breached ministerial standards. </p>
<p>This followed an Auditor-General report finding her decisions on grants were politically skewed. </p>
<p>But Gaetjens concluded political considerations had not been the primary determining factor in the grants’ allocation, although he did find she had breached ministerial standards by not declaring her association with gun organisations. On this basis she resigned from the cabinet, and the deputy leadership of the Nationals – which set off a train of events still destabilising the Nationals.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-we-need-to-see-gaetjens-report-on-mckenzie-not-least-for-gaetjens-sake-131144">View from The Hill: We need to see Gaetjens' report on McKenzie – not least for Gaetjens' sake</a>
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<p>In response to a Senate order to produce the report, the government claimed public interest immunity, saying it was a cabinet document. </p>
<p>Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong, accused the government of a “disgusting political coverup” in refusing to table the Gaetjens report and other documents.</p>
<p>“This is all about protection of the prime minister, who is up to his neck in the sports rorts scandal,” Wong said.</p>
<p>“We’re being asked to accept that the findings of an independent statutory officer, the Auditor-General, should be overridden by a secret report authored by someone of dubious credibility - because Mr Gaetjens is Mr Morrison’s mate, his former chief of staff, and that inquiry was commissioned by Mr Morrison to get exactly the advice he wanted so that he could do what he had already decided,” Wong said.</p>
<p>Earlier this week, crossbencher Jacqui Lambie launched a scathing attack on the government’s refusal to release the report. </p>
<p>“We’re supposed to trust this so-called independent process that found that senator McKenzie made a mistake in not declaring her shooting club membership, but not that she misused taxpayer funds. </p>
<p>"According to the prime minister, we’re supposed to trust that there was no basis for the suggestion that political considerations were the primary determining factor,” she told the Senate. </p>
<p>“Does he take millions of Australians out there for absolute morons?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An attempt to hobble Mathias Cormann in retaliation for the government’s refusal to produce the Gaetjens Report on Bridget McKenzie failed after Pauline Hanson withdrew her support.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288582019-12-13T05:33:59Z2019-12-13T05:33:59ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan reflects on the year in politics<figure>
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<p>For their last video for the year, University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini and Michelle Grattan look backwards to the big issues which have shaped political discourse. They discuss the surprise election results, and the ongoing natural disasters which have become increasingly political issues. They also discuss the biggest issues the government faces as we go into 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128858/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini and Michelle Grattan on the big issues which have shaped political discourse.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1284022019-12-05T10:58:49Z2019-12-05T10:58:49ZGrattan on Friday: Angus Taylor’s troubles go international, in brawl with Naomi Wolf<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305376/original/file-20191205-39018-q7ab54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=480%2C125%2C1567%2C865&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Morrison would rather live with a problem minister in a key post than give a scalp to Labor.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scott Morrison said it with a straight face, and repetition for emphasis. “I’m very pleased, very pleased, with the performance of all of my ministers,” he declared on Thursday.</p>
<p>This ringing if unconvincing universal endorsement came as the unfortunate Angus Taylor wallowed more deeply in his mire, which this week took a bizarre turn.</p>
<p>Controversial American feminist writer Naomi Wolf, in an extended phone call (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG7ljzMBmLU">which she videoed</a>) with a Taylor staffer, demanded a correction from the energy minister for his inaccurate claim they’d been corridor near-neighbours at Oxford in 1991 and for implying she’d campaigned against Christmas.</p>
<p>This story went back to <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22chamber/hansardr/5c41e365-7ca7-47aa-a810-1c6e44b75e5e/0096%22">Taylor’s maiden speech</a>. In that, he mentioned Wolf, then segued to students (without naming her) who opposed having a Christmas tree, against whom he and his “mainstream” friends successfully “pushed back”.</p>
<p>Wolf wasn’t living at Oxford then, says she enjoys Christmas, and, being Jewish, accuses Taylor of anti-Semitism.</p>
<p>In her video Wolf (who’s had her own problems with accuracy in her writings) was unrelenting, refusing to be deflected by the staffer who happened to pick up the office phone very late at night.</p>
<p>In parliament on Thursday Taylor insisted he’d met Wolf at Oxford and declared that, given his grandmother was Jewish, her accusation of anti-Semitism was “deeply offensive”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-under-fire-for-calling-nsw-police-commissioner-over-angus-taylor-investigation-127922">Scott Morrison under fire for calling NSW police commissioner over Angus Taylor investigation</a>
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<p>Taylor also argues he didn’t say she was one of the anti-Christmas brigade. But he did leave that impression.</p>
<p>It appears another case of Taylor being sloppy with facts and refusing to clean up his mess quickly, or at all.</p>
<p>In a rational political world, Morrison would use the opportunity of the extensive restructure of the public service he announced on Thursday for a shake up of his ministry early next year, enabling him to move Taylor, who struggles in his portfolio as well as being permanently stuck to fly papers of his own creation. </p>
<p>But under questioning at his Thursday news conference Morrison indicated he had no reshuffle in mind.</p>
<p>It is a missed opportunity, however Morrison would rather live with a problem minister in a key post than give a scalp to Labor. That’s assuming the NSW police clear Taylor over the alleged “doctored” document he used to make false claims about City of Sydney councillors’ travel.</p>
<p>While the Taylor saga became messier, the government did manage to achieve its desire to end the parliamentary year with a significant legislative win, thanks to a relentless effort to persuade crossbencher Jacqui Lambie to vote for the repeal of medevac.</p>
<p>Morrison’s personal involvement in the Lambie negotiations was a mark of how important this was to him. His commitment to medevac’s demise was out of proportion to the issue’s significance. Medevac had been imposed on the government during that brief pre-election period of minority government, and the PM was determined to reverse the defeat.</p>
<p>What it took to secure Lambie’s vote neither she nor the government will reveal (the speculation is it involves a commitment to pursue the New Zealand resettlement option at some later point).</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-medevac-repeal-and-what-it-means-for-asylum-seekers-on-manus-island-and-nauru-128118">Explainer: the medevac repeal and what it means for asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru</a>
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<p>This secrecy is disgraceful. Morrison is reinforcing the image of a government contemptuous of transparency. Lambie’s hiding behind “national security” is unconvincing, as was her emotional performance in the chamber.</p>
<p>Given her tiny electoral base (she won the last Tasmanian Senate spot), she has immense and disproportionate power in this parliament. For her, that is the luck of the Senate voting system. Under any notion of accountability, she has a duty to disclose to the public the back stories behind her decisions.</p>
<p>Regardless of its consequences and what it says about various players, the medevac repeal will fade soon from the public mind. Wednesday’s national accounts are another story. They reinforce the message that the Australian economy is caught in sluggish growth, creating serious concern for the coming year.</p>
<p>Annual growth is currently at 1.7%. There’ll have to be a strong turn-up to reach the budget forecast of 2.75% for 2019-20.</p>
<p>Business is cautious about investment. People have saved much of their tax cuts. It’s their choice whether to spend or save them, the government says, but the closed wallets flatten the numbers.</p>
<p>On Monday week we will see the revised economic forecasts in the budget update, and the latest estimate of the surplus. Thanks to high commodity prices, low growth can co-exist with a good surplus (although the government has done some spending since the budget).</p>
<p>While so much of our political debate is superficial, dominated by “spin” and the exchange of abuse, this week brought sharp reminders of Australia’s urgent need to do better on the fundamentals.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gdp-update-spending-dips-and-saving-soars-as-we-stash-rather-than-spend-our-tax-cuts-128297">GDP update: spending dips and saving soars as we stash rather than spend our tax cuts</a>
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<p>The national accounts showed annual productivity growth is negative. On another front, Australia’s results in the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) should be galvanising. Our school students are doing poorly on the basics and have gone backwards over recent years, despite substantially increased school funding.</p>
<p>Australia needs to lift its game in many areas, but our political debate is so dominated by point scoring, hyper-partisanship and the knee jerk reaction of interest groups that policy discussions have become like quicksand, as treasurer Josh Frydenberg found when he recently canvassed older people working longer.</p>
<p>The parliamentarians have departed Canberra exhausted from a year bifurcated by the election; they return to voters often contemptuous of them.</p>
<p>Morrison remains triumphant, although the final fortnight underlined the post victory reality.</p>
<p>Immediately after the election, the commentary said the Senate would be much easier for the government than last term, and that still holds. But Pauline Hanson is brittle and Lambie can be fickle.</p>
<p>Landing legislation with them will often involve a lot of palaver. After last week’s debacle when Hanson sank the ensuring integrity bill, industrial relations minister Christian Porter reintroduced it this week and the government pushed it though the lower house at top speed by stifling debate. Another attempt to have it passed in the senate is a task for the new year. Next time Lambie will be heavily courted.</p>
<p>Morrison had hoped to have the religious freedom legislation introduced by now, but that proved impossible, after arguments broke out on all sides. Delay won’t solve the problems.</p>
<p>And we are yet to see specifics of the PM’s stated desire to pursue environmentalists who urge secondary boycotts of resource companies.</p>
<p>Despite the embarrassment around Taylor and other difficulties, especially the economic uncertainty, Morrison is comfortable at the end of the parliamentary year.</p>
<p>He will go into next year in his own bubble of personal confidence that does not admit error or allow for self doubt. That might fireproof him, or it might mean he gets burned. Whether he can learn to be a good prime minister is the big question for 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The situation with Naomi Wolf is another case of Angus Taylor being sloppy with facts and refusing to clean up his mess quickly.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1283032019-12-04T00:41:36Z2019-12-04T00:41:36ZMedevac repealed after government comes to secret arrangement with Jacqui Lambie<p>The government has finally secured the repeal of medevac by coming to an arrangement with crossbencher Jacqui Lambie, the terms of which she refused to disclose to the Senate because of “national security concerns”.</p>
<p>The repeal was carried 37-35 after Lambie – on whose vote the result depended – said she was satisfied with her negotiations with the government.</p>
<p>But Senate leader Mathias Cormann had previously unequivocally denied any deal.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison personally negotiated with Lambie over the repeal, a sign of the government’s determination to quash the medevac law.</p>
<p>Medevac – which facilitated medical transfers of people from Papua New Guinea and Nauru - was passed against the Coalition’s opposition when it was briefly in minority late in the last parliamentary term.</p>
<p>Lambie had indicated previously that her vote for the repeal would be conditional on the government meeting a condition which she would not specify. She suggested security matters were involved.</p>
<p>In an emotional speech Lambie, breaking down in tears, told the Senate: “I’m not being coy or silly when I say I genuinely can’t say what I proposed. I know that’s frustrating to people. And I get that. I don’t like holding things back like this. </p>
<p>"But when I say I can’t discuss it publicly due to national security concerns, I am being 100% honest to you. My hand is on my heart and I can stand here and say that I would be putting at risk Australia’s national security and national interest if I said anything else about this,” she said.</p>
<p>“I put a proposal to the government, and since then we have worked together really hard to advance that proposal. We’ve worked to an outcome I believe we both want, which is an outcome where our borders are secure, the boats have stopped and sick people aren’t dying while waiting for treatment. </p>
<p>"And as a result of that work, I am satisfied, I am more than satisfied, that the conditions are now in place to allow medevac to be repealed.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-is-whipping-up-fear-on-the-medevac-law-but-it-defies-logic-and-compassion-119297">Peter Dutton is whipping up fear on the medevac law, but it defies logic and compassion</a>
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<p>But Cormann earlier said: “There is no secret deal. There will be no change to our strong border protection arrangements. There will be no change to our strong national security arrangements. And there will be no change in the way we deal with the legacy caseload that Labor left behind.”</p>
<p>Greens leader Richard Di Natale demanded to know who was lying. “Who’s lying, minister Cormann? Are you lying? Or is senator Lambie lying?”</p>
<p>He said Cormann had “walked over to senator Lambie and said, ‘Is it OK if I say there’s no deal?’ We heard you say it”.</p>
<p>One Nation’s Pauline Hanson told the Senate she had just had “a quick talk with senator Lambie”. It was “extremely hard for her. … I do trust her judgement”.</p>
<p>When the Senate resumed on Wednesday morning, the government immediately moved to bring on the repeal bill. Labor demanded the terms of the deal, declaring the vote should be delayed until they were revealed.</p>
<p>Labor’s leader in the Senate Penny Wong said: “We have cabinet ministers coming in here like lemmings, voting on a legislation based on a deal you haven’t seen.”</p>
<p>Labor spokeswoman on home affairs Kristina Keneally said the Australian public supported medevac, quoting a poll showing 62% in favour. She said medevac had nothing to do with Operation Sovereign Borders which Labor supported. Repeal would deny people treatment, she said.</p>
<p>Under the offshore arrangements, there are currently just over 200 people in Papua New Guinea and more than 250 on Nauru.</p>
<p>At a joint news conference with Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, Morrison said: “The only undertaking we’ve given is to implement our policies, that is it”.</p>
<p>Amid speculation about some resettlement undertakings, Morrison said the government’s policies sought to resettle people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After securing a condition which she cannot disclose “due to national security concerns”, Jacqui Lambie has voted with the government on the repeal of the medevac laws.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280552019-11-29T03:04:14Z2019-11-29T03:04:14ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the defeat of the government’s union legislation<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Professor Leigh Sullivan and Michelle Grattan discuss the “unexpected” loss of the government’s union legislation. They also talk about the ongoing saga with Angus Taylor’s letter to the Mayor of Sydney, Clover Moore. They then look towards the last parliamentary sitting week of the year, where the government will have another challenging legislation to pass through the Senate - the repeal of the Medevac bill.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Professor Leigh Sullivan and Michelle Grattan discuss this week in politics, and talk about what to expect in the year’s final parliamentary sitting week.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280182019-11-28T11:26:53Z2019-11-28T11:26:53ZGrattan on Friday: Own goals and defeat of union legislation give Scott Morrison a horror week<p>The strange affair of Angus Taylor and the allegedly doctored document of dubious provenance he used to try to discredit Sydney’s lord mayor Clover Moore and her council over climate change is replete with lessons for political players.</p>
<p>One: avoid gratuitous point scoring, but if you must do it, make sure your facts are correct.</p>
<p>Two: when you are caught out in a mistake, make a clean breast of things, and as quickly as possible – don’t dally with your apology.</p>
<p>Three: if you are the prime minister, and your embattled minister is facing a police investigation, do nothing that might suggest, even if wrongly, that you are intervening in the course of justice.</p>
<p>Four: when, as PM, you are defending your man or woman in parliament, make sure the material you use has been triple checked.</p>
<p>Failure to observe these obvious and sensible practices has created a distracting issue for the government and then damagingly escalated it. In the process, Taylor has been discredited, and Scott Morrison has been embroiled and embarrassed – or embarrassed himself. Every twist and turn has been entirely self-created by the government. The whole thing was avoidable.</p>
<p>Taylor’s self-image and the political reality of his career have sharply diverged since he was elected to parliament in 2013, with the hope, indeed the expectation in his own mind, of eventually becoming prime minister.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-under-fire-for-calling-nsw-police-commissioner-over-angus-taylor-investigation-127922">Scott Morrison under fire for calling NSW police commissioner over Angus Taylor investigation</a>
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<p>It did not seem at the time an unreasonable aspiration. A Rhodes scholar, a McKinsey man who became a director at Port Jackson Partners, Taylor presented well and looked the part.</p>
<p>He identified with the conservative wing of the Liberals (later supporting Peter Dutton’s leadership bid and criticising Malcolm Turnbull), although certain people who knew him well and worked with him in his previous career are surprised at some of the positions he takes today including on issues related to climate change.</p>
<p>Belying his early promise, Taylor has been embroiled in controversies (including over his interest in a family company investigated about land clearing), and since becoming energy minister under Morrison he has performed poorly in what’s admittedly a very challenging portfolio.</p>
<p>In general, Taylor has fallen victim to a combination of hubris and stubbornness.</p>
<p>His response to the City of Sydney’s declaration of a climate emergency was to point to what he claimed were the councillors’ huge travel costs - and thus large carbon footprint - with the imputation of hypocrisy. His letter to Moore was given to the Daily Telegraph just to hype his attack.</p>
<p>But the figures he used were wrong – so wrong it is amazing Taylor, with a background dealing with numbers, did not immediately spot a problem.</p>
<p>When the error was inevitably revealed, Taylor insisted the document providing the basis for his claim “was drawn directly from the City of Sydney website”. He said his office on September 9 accessed a report on that site. Taylor sticks by this story publicly, and reportedly says the same thing privately to Morrison.</p>
<p>But the council report on the site contained the correct figures, and the evidence so far – notably the City of Sydney metadata - indicates that report was not altered.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-stands-by-energy-minister-angus-taylor-who-faces-police-probe-127818">Scott Morrison stands by energy minister Angus Taylor, who faces police probe</a>
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<p>So where did Taylor’s allegedly doctored and certainly inaccurate document come from?</p>
<p>The most likely explanation appears to be the Taylor office somehow accessed a draft, and then a staffer misread that draft, inflating the very modest travel costs into the millions of dollars that Taylor claimed.</p>
<p>But why, if something like that is what happened, Taylor did not ‘fess up with the full story immediately is inexplicable.</p>
<p>This week’s announcement of a NSW Police investigation took the affair to a new level, raising the question of whether Taylor should be stood aside while that proceeds. This can be argued both ways: in my view there’s a reasonable case for not standing him aside. There are precedents, and anyway the probe will be finished quickly.</p>
<p>What was not reasonable was for Morrison to ring NSW police commissioner Mick Fuller to ask about the investigation. Not least because he and Fuller are well acquainted personally – they previously lived near each other.</p>
<p>(As a side point, Fuller was caught out in relation to this neighbourliness. A while ago he told 2GB Morrison used to take in his, Fuller’s, rubbish bin. This week, playing down his closeness to Morrison, Fuller said that never happened.)</p>
<p>Apart from the proprieties, a leader with any appreciation of process should know that by directly contacting the commissioner he was opening himself to attack.</p>
<p>To do so was a misjudgement. Then Morrison added carelessness when, raising Labor examples of people not standing aside while under police investigation, he attributed the words of radio presenter Ben Fordham to a Victorian detective.</p>
<p>This was another instance of somebody being sloppy. While many journalists will identify with mixing up a quote – there but for the grace of god, etc – if you’re a prime minister doing it in the middle of a stoush, the political fallout is nasty.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/louts-thugs-bullies-the-myth-thats-driving-morrisons-anti-union-push-123688">'Louts, thugs, bullies': the myth that's driving Morrison's anti-union push</a>
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<p>With one week of the parliamentary year remaining, Labor has decided to deny Taylor a pair next Wednesday and Thursday for him to go to the International Energy Agency conference in Paris. It could be another rough few days for the minister, unless he gets a very quick all-clear from the NSW police.</p>
<p>By late Thursday the government was hoping its very difficult week would finish with an important win – the passage of its Ensuring Integrity legislation to crack down on recalcitrant unions and union officials. But there things went horribly wrong.</p>
<p>Pauline Hanson, despite securing concessions, voted with Labor and the legislation was lost on a tie.</p>
<p>The government was visibly shocked, with attorney-general Christian Porter saying it would seek to reintroduce the legislation “at an appropriate time” - whenever that might be.</p>
<p>Hanson said she was firing a warning shot across the bows of both union bosses and the government – the former should get their act together and the latter should clean up white collar crime.</p>
<p>“What I pick up from the public is a crystal-clear view that this government, and past governments, have one rule for white-collar crime and a much harsher rule for blue-collar crime,” she had said earlier. The shocking revelations about Westpac came at a very bad time for a government pressing its case for action on unions.</p>
<p>As it looks to the final sitting week, the government is desperately trying to wrangle Jacqui Lambie, who’s playing hardball, into voting for the repeal of medevac.</p>
<p>Another rebuff on what it regards as critical legislation would be deeply humiliating.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128018/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With one parliamentary week remaining, Angus Taylor has been discredited, and Scott Morrison has been embroiled and embarrassed – or embarrassed himself. And the whole thing was avoidable.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1275272019-11-21T10:22:48Z2019-11-21T10:22:48ZGrattan on Friday: Scott Morrison will go into 2020 with a challenging cluster of policy loose ends<p>Scott Morrison’s government is heading to the end of 2019 amid a debate about its economic judgement and with a number of substantial policy moves started but not completed.</p>
<p>Morrison this week delivered to an audience from big business what was described as his most important speech for the rest of the year. He wanted the voters to know the government is not – underscore NOT – panicking about the economy.</p>
<p>Even so, it is putting in a little extra stimulus by fast tracking some infrastructure.</p>
<p>Whether the government should be panicking is the question - we’ll be able to better answer that when the September quarter national accounts are released next month.</p>
<p>Morrison points out that since the election the Coalition has injected an additional $9.5 billion for 2019-20 and 2020-21 - through tax relief, the infrastructure bring-forwards and extra funding, and drought assistance to communities.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/government-to-inject-economic-stimulus-by-accelerating-infrastructure-spend-127358">This week’s modest infrastructure initiative</a> will amount to little in itself in terms of economic activity - it is a holding message as the government waits to see whether it will have to do more in the near term while firming up plans for its preferred timetable of some action in the budget.</p>
<p>Next week begins the year’s final parliamentary fortnight, with the main attention on the fate of two bills.</p>
<p>The ensuring integrity legislation, to crack down on bad behaviour in the union movement, seemed set to pass the Senate last week. After amendments had been promised to Centre Alliance, the government needed just one extra vote out of the combined three votes of One Nation and Jacqui Lambie.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-courting-quiet-australians-from-bubble-central-its-been-a-remarkable-first-year-for-scott-morrison-122260">Grattan on Friday: Courting 'quiet Australians' from 'bubble central', it's been a remarkable first year for Scott Morrison</a>
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<p>Lambie had earlier declared she’d support the legislation if maverick construction union official John Setka didn’t quit his post (which he has no intention of doing).</p>
<p>Then Lambie baulked, worried about the danger of some unions being caught on technical breaches. Pauline Hanson’s attention, meanwhile, was on other things. Hanson has now engaged with amendments; the government has done more tweaking; the legislation again seems set to pass.</p>
<p>The other bill in the spotlight would repeal medevac. The government’s determination on this is driven by its desire to look tough (and reverse the humiliation the passage of medevac inflicted on it) rather than by need. Medevac applies only to the dwindling number of people still in Papua New Guinea and Nauru, not to any future arrivals; the people smuggling trade hasn’t restarted.</p>
<p>Lambie is the swing vote on the repeal bill and, for reasons unclear, she has been refusing to disclose her position. The bill is on the Senate notice paper for Wednesday.</p>
<p>Beyond immediate legislation, and despite the conventional commentary about it lacking an “agenda”, the government in fact has set itself quite a lot of work.</p>
<p>Much of it falls under Christian Porter, who as attorney-general and industrial relations minister is one of the busiest people in the Morrison ministry.</p>
<p>The issues he’s dealing with bring fierce battles. As he lamented at the National Press Club on Wednesday: “Every new task I am allotted does seem to inevitably support the observation that rights in practice collide with each other rather than neatly contouring into each other.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-jackie-lambie-should-not-horse-trade-on-medevac-repeal-bill-124639">Grattan on Friday: Jackie Lambie should not horse trade on medevac repeal bill</a>
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<p>Religious freedom is an obvious case, as he’s found in consultations with more than 90 different stakeholders. He announced this week the draft bill will be changed so religious groups running hospitals and aged care facilities would be able to discriminate in favour of employing people on faith grounds, in the same way religious schools can.</p>
<p>Originally it had been hoped the legislation would be done and dusted this year, but this proved impossible. Indeed its eventual fate remains in question; the government will engage with Labor to try for a unity ticket.</p>
<p>Also in Porter’s bailiwick is press freedom, which became a hot issue after the raids on the ABC and a News Corp journalist.</p>
<p>A report on some aspects by the parliamentary joint committee on intelligence on security has been delayed until near Christmas. Chairman Andrew Hastie explained the committee is “endeavouring to achieve a bipartisan report, which delivers tangible areas for reform and consideration”.</p>
<p>One crucial area is whistle blower protection. Porter said the government would soon respond to an earlier review of this to ensure “the act is easily and readily understandable to the people who need to use it”.</p>
<p>How much ground the government is willing to give on media freedom is yet to be seen. It would prefer to yield as little as possible; its default position is secrecy. Porter is open to some reforms, including on problems in the freedom of information system and on whistle blowers, but it’s a matter of their degree.</p>
<p>Also still to come is legislation for an integrity commission. This was a reluctant pre-election commitment, essentially forced by the politics.</p>
<p>The body would be heavily circumscribed; as Porter reaffirmed this week, it wouldn’t be able to make “corrupt conduct findings” against politicians or public servants. Rather, in such cases it would investigate and send evidence to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.</p>
<p>Porter is also following up Morrison’s concern – which has sparked a sharp reaction - about resource companies being targeted by environmental activists.</p>
<p>As well as all this, Porter is running the government’s industrial relations reform process, which is taking a softly-softly-catchee- monkey approach, gradually moving through specified issues.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coalitions-approach-to-religious-discrimination-risks-being-an-inconclusive-wasteful-exercise-125486">The Coalition's approach to religious discrimination risks being an inconclusive, wasteful exercise</a>
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<p>This week Morrison flagged another priority area – reducing the “administrative clutter” around awards as well as in other parts of the system.</p>
<p>“While the number of awards has reduced, it appears that they have not become simpler – indeed many believe that they have become more complex,” he told his business audience, again exhorting them to make the case for reform (meaning, not to leave the jawboning to him and his colleagues). </p>
<p>In his speech, Morrison gave the government’s plans to deregulate procedures for the approval of major projects a push along, saying environmental approval processes were “overly complex, duplicative and they take too long”. </p>
<p>Simplifying them seems a no brainer. The issue will always be, however, whether that goes further and cuts into proper scrutiny and environmental protections.</p>
<p>Among the initiatives the government has put on its plate since the election is the pursuit of indigenous recognition in the constitution.</p>
<p>Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt again asserted this week: “I am committed to delivering constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians in this term of parliament.” It is a desirable but very ambitious aspiration that will be extremely hard, if not impossible, to land. </p>
<p>In sum, the government will finish 2019 with a cluster of loose ends. The challenges ahead in managing the politics of trying to tie them up should not be under-estimated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Next week begins the year’s final parliamentary fortnight, and the main attention will be on the fate of two bills - the ensuring integrity legislation, and the medevac repeal.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1253082019-10-22T01:53:12Z2019-10-22T01:53:12ZThe evidence is clear: the medevac law saves lives. But even this isn’t enough to alleviate refugee suffering<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298031/original/file-20191022-56224-75p8x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=566%2C0%2C4992%2C2900&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters holding a vigil last year for deceased asylum seeker Hamid Khazaei, who died in a Brisbane hospital due to an infection at the Manus Island detention centre in 2014.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie has some sobering reading to do over the coming weeks: an 88-page Senate <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/RepairMedicaltransfers/Report">report</a> into the government-sponsored bill to repeal the medevac law that allow refugees and asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru to seek medical care in Australia. The publication of the report last Friday paves the way for a Senate vote on the bill in mid-November. </p>
<p>As predicted, the Senate committee that issued the report split along party lines, with the Coalition majority calling for the medevac provisions to be repealed and the ALP, Greens and Centre Alliance senators releasing dissenting reports.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/lambie-stays-mute-on-medevac-vote-after-senate-inquiry-splits-on-party-lines-125498">Lambie stays mute on medevac vote after Senate inquiry splits on party lines</a>
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<p>What is less predictable is how the report will influence Lambie’s deciding vote. She has indicated she will approach the bill as a conscience vote, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/jacqui-lambie-rejects-horse-trading-with-humanity-over-vote-to-repeal-medevac-laws">saying</a> </p>
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<h2>An overwhelming health crisis in offshore detention</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma1958118/s198e.html">medevac law</a> allows a person to be transferred to Australia for medical treatment or assessment if two Australian-registered doctors recommend such care is necessary and unavailable in PNG or Nauru. There are limited exceptions for the minister of home affairs to reject a transfer on security and character grounds. </p>
<p>Since the law came into effect in March, <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportsen/024304/toc_pdf/MigrationAmendment(RepairingMedicalTransfers)Bill2019%5bProvisions%5d.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf">over 130 people have been transferred for care</a>. </p>
<p>The Coalition government maintains the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/foi/files/2019/fa190100423-document-released.PDF">pre-medevac medical transfer policy</a> for refugees was adequate. This allowed transfers only in life-threatening cases in which the required specialist medical care could not be provided on PNG, Nauru or a third country like Taiwan. </p>
<p>However, evidence given to the Senate committee showed a drastic drop in medical transfers to Australia from 2015 to mid-2018, despite clear medical need. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=3a04719d-f5ea-4342-aeff-c25ab3a90c31">Statistics</a> given to the committee by the National Justice Project, a not-for-profit legal service that acts on behalf of refugees, documented how some patients had to wait more than four years for medical transfers to Australia. </p>
<p>Tony Bartone, the Australian Medical Association president, described the government’s pre-Medevac process as “torturous” and involving “long periods of delay,” without any appropriate oversight.</p>
<p>Court injunctions and prospective litigation from mid-2018 onwards did compel the government to bring around 350 people to Australia for urgent medical treatment or as an accompanying family member. But such court interventions can be costly, slow and resource-intensive for those in need of immediate medical attention.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-is-whipping-up-fear-on-the-medevac-law-but-it-defies-logic-and-compassion-119297">Peter Dutton is whipping up fear on the medevac law, but it defies logic and compassion</a>
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<p>And that need is still extremely high for those refugees remaining in offshore detention. An <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/26/asylum-seekers-held-in-papua-new-guinea-blocked-from-talking-to-lawyers-or-doctors">independent health assessment</a> in June found a staggering 97% of those in detention and processing facilities have been diagnosed with physical health conditions. A further 91% were experiencing mental health problems, including severe depression and PTSD. </p>
<p>All but two of the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/RepairMedicaltransfers/Submissions">95 public submissions</a> received by the committee were strongly in favour of retaining the medevac law. </p>
<p>Tellingly, those two submissions were from the Department of Home Affairs and the International Health and Medical Service, a government-contracted health provider on Nauru.</p>
<h2>Overlooked refugee suffering in Australia</h2>
<p>What is missing from the Senate report is any mention of the intolerable situation that refugees and asylum seekers face even after they have been transferred to Australia. </p>
<p>Although people can access critical medical treatment here, most remain in community detention, facing economic insecurity and legal uncertainty about their future. Research <a href="https://academic.oup.com/rsq/article-abstract/36/4/45/4101639?redirectedFrom=fulltext">shows</a> such legal limbo can lead to feelings of despair and dehumanisation. </p>
<p>The day before the report’s release, 32-year-old Afghan doctor Sayed Mirwais Rohani <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/17/afghan-man-dies-in-brisbane-two-years-after-medical-transfer-from-manus-island">died in Brisbane</a>, the victim of an apparent suicide. Rohani had come to Australia for medical treatment two years ago, after spending four years in immigration detention on Manus Island. </p>
<p>After his death, his former roommate posted on Facebook:</p>
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<p>We shared same pain for long time, long enough to destroy someone’s life.</p>
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<p>Rohani’s death <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/17/afghan-man-dies-in-brisbane-two-years-after-medical-transfer-from-manus-island">was at least the 13th among refugees</a> held in offshore detention on Manus or Nauru.</p>
<h2>‘Trying to kill themselves because they’ve lost hope’</h2>
<p>No doubt the government will use the Senate report to convince Lambie to support its bill when the vote happens next month. </p>
<p>So far, Lambie has remained relatively reticent, even if she did <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/18/jacqui-lambie-rejects-duttons-claim-most-veterans-would-want-medevac-laws-abolished">rebuff</a> Dutton’s claim that the “vast majority of veterans” want her to vote to repeal medevac. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-will-the-medevac-bill-actually-affect-ill-asylum-seekers-111645">Explainer: how will the 'medevac' bill actually affect ill asylum seekers?</a>
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<p>Instead, Lambie indicated she would look to “national security” considerations in weighing up the report’s findings, including the dissenting reports. She has in the past <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/05/ricky-muir-vote-reinstates-tpvs-and-hands-coalition-hollow-asylum-victory">called</a> for children not to be in immigration detention and voted against the Coalition government’s bill to introduce temporary refugee visas in 2014. </p>
<p>Even if the medevac provisions stay in place, the status quo of Australia’s offshore detention regime remains unsustainable and inhumane. </p>
<p>As former MP Kerryn Phelps, a key architect of the medevac law during her brief time in parliament, stated in her evidence to the Senate committee, refugees and asylum seekers are </p>
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<p>not trying to make a point; they’re trying to kill themselves because they’ve lost hope.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara Dehm is a national co-convenor of Academics for Refugees.</span></em></p>A Senate report details the high need for refugees on Manus Island and Nauru to be able to seek medical care in Australia. The fate of the medevac law now rests in Jacqui Lambie’s hands.Sara Dehm, Lecturer, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1246392019-10-03T10:06:45Z2019-10-03T10:06:45ZGrattan on Friday: Jackie Lambie should not horse trade on medevac repeal bill<p>In this age of celebrity, Jacqui Lambie fits the narrative to a tee in the political sphere. She’s a rough-talking woman with a struggle-town back story who has landed centre stage because she has a lot of power – and sometimes the crucial vote – on contested issues in the Senate.</p>
<p>You get the impression Lambie loves both the drama and the influence. She revelled in getting the government to deliver big money to obtain her vote on the tax relief legislation. With chutzpah, she later lamented coming cheap.</p>
<p>But soon Lambie will face a decision with more complexities than tax cuts, affecting relatively few lives but those lives in a huge way. As things stand she’ll be the determining vote on the legislation to repeal medevac, the law that facilitates medical transfers from Papua New Guinea and Nauru.</p>
<p>Lambie, everyone says, is “keeping her cards close to her chest”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, behind the scenes a race is on to get as many people as possible with medical needs to Australia ahead of the vote, in case the government wins Lambie’s support.</p>
<p>A Senate inquiry on the repeal legislation is due to report on October 18. The government could try to push through its bill in the week of November 11, the next available Senate sitting week.</p>
<p>Those pursuing transfers on behalf of applicants claim the government is attempting to “run down the clock”, dragging out the transfers where it can.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-is-whipping-up-fear-on-the-medevac-law-but-it-defies-logic-and-compassion-119297">Peter Dutton is whipping up fear on the medevac law, but it defies logic and compassion</a>
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<p>The number of people offshore is now relatively small, after 632 have departed to the United States (with another 263 going through the approval process) and more than 1000 transfers, including accompany family members, to Australia over the years (these mostly not under the new legislation).</p>
<p>According to government figures as of Thursday, there are 281 people in Papua New Guinea (including refugees, non-refugees and some that are still being processed) and 279 in Nauru.</p>
<p>In relation to medevac, the government says there have been 283 notifications for medical transfer, with 127 transferred, 23 in the process of transfer and “numerous others” engaged at various levels. It says the minister has refused 54 cases for transfer and the Independent Health Advisory Panel (IHAP) agreed with the refusal.</p>
<p>The Asylum Seeker Resource Centre (which is a member of the Medical Evacuation Response Group set up to manage transfer requests under the medevac law), operating on slightly different figures - its numbers were as of September 29 - says the minister had given approval in 133 cases, while in 15 cases, the minister had been overridden by the IHAP. Refusals had numbered 39, ASRC says.</p>
<p>It says some 79% of all medevac applications that had been determined won approval. In 71% of cases decided, the minister approved the application in the first instance.</p>
<p>The medevac legislation passed when the Coalition was in minority at the end of the last parliamentary term. The government at the time warned of dire consequences, including that rapists and paedophiles would get to Australia.</p>
<p>It re-opened Christmas Island and said transferees would be sent there. No one has been. (Only the Tamil family is there. That family has lived in Australia for years but has failed in its bids for refugee status and will be deported if it loses its current court case.)</p>
<p>The government insisted medevac would trigger a reopening of the people smuggling trade. That hasn’t happened, and the several boats (not a flotilla) that have set out in recent months have been intercepted by the efficient turnback operation. Any “pull” factor is also offset by the medevac law only applying to people who came before it passed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lambies-vote-key-if-government-wants-to-have-medevac-repealed-118905">Lambie's vote key if government wants to have medevac repealed</a>
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<p>Is medevac a way of clearing everyone from PNG and Nauru by the backdoor? No and yes. Not directly, because people have to be demonstrably ill. But after so many years, most of these people are or will be sick, mainly though not entirely with mental illnesses. Which of us would not be, in their circumstances?</p>
<p>Given there is not evidence medevac has compromised border security since its passage early this year, the government’s quest to repeal the legislation seems driven by anger (that it was imposed on it by Labor and the crossbench), ideology and politics.</p>
<p>If it were looking at the matter strictly logically, surely it would reason that the remaining people offshore present, in policy terms, what the political scientists call a “wicked problem” which medevac is helping solve.</p>
<p>These people can’t stay where they are for ever (and should not have been there anything like this long). More have been transferred to Australia than are now offshore. People who’ve been brought here under medevac remain in detention facilities (various places can be designated a detention facility) at the discretion of the minister.</p>
<p>If the medevac law helps end the offshore issue, isn’t this an upside for Australia without a demonstrable downside? That’s just putting things in crude policy cost-benefit terms. Behind this, of course, lies the compelling humanitarian case.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-will-the-medevac-bill-actually-affect-ill-asylum-seekers-111645">Explainer: how will the 'medevac' bill actually affect ill asylum seekers?</a>
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<p>In the end, everyone waits on Lambie. The government is in her ear. So are those wanting medevac preserved. Her office says she is still taking “soundings”, although there has been a long time to get across the arguments, which aren’t particularly complicated. The Senate inquiry, chaired by the government, can be expected to come down on party lines, rather than adding much new.</p>
<p>Gross horse trading is now a feature of dealing with legislation in the Senate. While sometimes the Senate acts as a genuine house of review, at others it seems the proportional representation voting system, which has delivered so much clout to crossbenchers representing relatively few voters, has a lot to answer for.</p>
<p>No doubt the government would be willing to put a feast on Lambie’s table to get a win on what has become this totemic issue for it.</p>
<p>But this is a piece of legislation on which Lambie should not contemplate any deals, whether in response to carrots for Tasmania or anything else the government might hold out or she might want.</p>
<p>The key crossbencher’s decision should involve only judgements about morality, the medical needs and future lives of vulnerable people, and border security. On those criteria how she should vote seems pretty clear, even while she keeps everyone guessing how she will vote. </p>
<p>*This article has been changed to correct the Senate sitting date.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124639/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government would be willing to put a feast on the table to get a win on the medevac repeal, but this is a piece of legislation on which Lambie should not contemplate any deals.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1238802019-09-19T11:38:47Z2019-09-19T11:38:47ZGrattan on Friday: Morrison government solid on industrial relations reform but bootlicks One Nation on family law<p>John Howard is remembered by his Liberal tribe as a reformer, but his legacy is mixed. The GST has endured but he essentially doomed his government when he let his ideological obsession with industrial relations run away with him.</p>
<p>The Liberals lost the next election, and had to stand by as Labor dismantled WorkChoices.</p>
<p>Now a subsequent Liberal government is starting on workplace change, with industrial relations minister Christian Porter on Thursday releasing the first discussion papers.</p>
<p>It’s early days and in politics sheep can always put on wolves’ clothing. But on what we see, the measured approach of Scott Morrison and Porter is a far cry from that of Howard and likely to be more successful and lasting.</p>
<p>That’s not to ignore the government’s tough stand against militant unionism. The Ensuring Integrity bill from last term is back, and its prospects – provided there is some fine tuning - appear better this time, thanks in no small part to the antics of John Setka.</p>
<p>(On Thursday the Senate referred Setka to the privileges committee which will investigate the claim his comments at a private union meeting amounted to a threat against Centre Alliance senators in relation to their vote on the integrity bill. The CFMEU immediately declared it looked forward to appearing before the committee.)</p>
<p>More broadly, the government says industrial relations changes should meet three criteria: they need to create jobs and put upward pressure on wages, boost productivity, and promote economic growth.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-major-parties-stack-up-on-industrial-relations-policy-116256">How the major parties stack up on industrial relations policy</a>
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<p>Porter, in his Thursday address to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), said the matters selected for scrutiny were based on what stakeholders had been telling the government.</p>
<p>The first two discussion papers cover proposed criminal penalties for wage theft, and extending the permitted length of greenfields enterprise agreements for major projects.</p>
<p>They have been chosen strategically. The second is relatively uncontroversial. The first is pitched towards workers.</p>
<p>These will be followed by papers on the building code that applies to Commonwealth-funded building work; casual employment; the small business fair dismissal code, and several aspects of enterprise bargaining. Some of these will be more controversial than the initial ones.</p>
<p>Porter sought to put the need for change in perspective: “the present system benefits from the great virtue that in most sectors most of the time it is a relatively orderly rules based system”.</p>
<p>Howard went for root-and-branch change; the Morrison government is looking for incremental reform.</p>
<p>Morrison is not an industrial relations crusader. Crucially, in all areas he is outcomes-oriented. He wants the changes he seeks to get through the Senate, where he would need crossbench support. Having unexpectedly won control of the Senate at the 2004 election, Howard had no check on his ambitions.</p>
<p>As Porter puts it, there are two crucial questions before a government wanting IR changes: what improvements are most important to strengthening the economy and “what possible changes can achieve a significant enough degree of consensus that they can be supported through parliament?”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacqui-lambie-mixes-battler-politics-with-populism-to-make-her-swing-vote-count-123175">Jacqui Lambie mixes battler politics with populism to make her swing vote count</a>
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<p>Unsurprisingly, wrangling legislation through the upper house preoccupies the government. The Senate this term, with its smaller crossbench, is easier to deal with, though not necessarily easy. The half a dozen non-Green crossbenchers include Cory Bernardi (now in practice a government vote), two One Nation senators, two from Centre Alliance and Jacqui Lambie.</p>
<p>When Labor and the Greens vote against legislation the Coalition needs four of these crossbenchers to carry it. The government is shameless in throwing them bones of various shapes and sizes.</p>
<p>For Lambie’s support on the tax package, it forgave Tasmania’s $157.6 million housing debt.</p>
<p>This week Pauline Hanson was given a win, for past and future favours, when the government announced a joint parliamentary committee would examine the family law system.</p>
<p>Hanson, who thinks men get a bad deal in the system, has been constantly agitating for an inquiry, including putting some draft terms of reference to Porter. On Tuesday came the statement from Morrison and Porter.</p>
<p>The government is appointing as chairman Kevin Andrews, a Liberal conservative with a strong, long-term interest in and commitment to marriage counselling. It is backing Hanson as deputy chair (a position formally chosen by the committee). Of the ten-member committee five will be from the government; the ALP (which opposed the inquiry) will have three, and there will be one lower house crossbencher (Zali Steggall, who as a barrister specialised in family law).</p>
<p>This inquiry, though supported by the Law Council of Australia, seems unnecessary and is provocative.</p>
<p>Unnecessary, because the government already has a detailed report from the Australian Law Reform Commission, which it asked for, with a large number of recommendations on family law policy. That came earlier this year and the government has yet to address it. There was also a parliamentary inquiry last term that focused on protecting people affected by domestic violence in the family court system. There has been a plethora of other reviews over the past decade.</p>
<p>Provocative, because it is all about Hanson. </p>
<p>She caused immediate outrage after the announcement by her comment that “a lot of the women out there abuse the system by instigating false DVOs against their former partners or their husbands. They use that to further their needs”.</p>
<p>She also said: “In legislation there is 50/50 custody but it is at the discretion of the judges and I don’t think that is good enough.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-family-super-court-may-not-save-time-or-result-in-better-judgments-97454">A new family 'super court' may not save time or result in better judgments</a>
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<p>Anti-domestic violence campaigner Rosie Batty said in reply to Hanson’s DVO claim: “Obviously there are some women who do abuse the system, but overwhelmingly we know that one woman a week is being murdered at the hands of a violent man”.</p>
<p>Batty said Hanson’s comments showed she already had an agenda. “It cannot possibly be an unbiased inquiry with these two people heading it up,” she said.</p>
<p>The family law system is one of the most fraught and sensitive policy areas. It is more than unfortunate that it has become a pawn in the wider Senate play. This is all about politics. It’s far from a best practice path to reform of a system that affects so many people – critically, so many children.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the government starts its work on workplace change, it gave Pauline Hanson a win, for past and future favours, making her deputy chair of a joint parliamentary committee into the family law system.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.