tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/january-8-statement-34619/articlesJanuary 8 Statement – The Conversation2024-01-16T14:13:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2211252024-01-16T14:13:41Z2024-01-16T14:13:41ZSouth Africa’s ANC marks its 112th year with an eye on national elections, but its record is patchy and future uncertain<p>The speech President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered at the <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ANC-January-8th-Statement-2024.pdf">112th birthday celebration</a> of South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), on 13 January can be seen as the party’s opening election gambit: a stadium packed to capacity, the display of a united leadership, and an invocation of three decades of success, delivered by a leader firmly in control of his party.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/anc-january-8th-statement/">annual January 8</a> statement, unsurprisingly, was a 30 year self-assessment and is self-congratulatory. It was silent on the many failings under ANC rule: <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2023/november-/Statement%20of%20the%20Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20November%202023.pdf">sluggish economic growth</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-police-are-losing-the-war-on-crime-heres-how-they-need-to-rethink-their-approach-218048">crime and lack of security</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/local-government-in-south-africa-is-broken-but-giving-the-job-to-residents-carries-risks-155970">failure to deliver essential services</a> and <a href="https://mg.co.za/thought-leader/opinion/2023-01-31-south-africa-must-maintain-and-build-new-infrastructure/">maintain public infrastructure</a>. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa said the anniversary <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/anc-january-8th-statement/">occasion</a> was an opportunity to focus members of the party on the tasks ahead of the <a href="https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/">2024 general elections</a> – expected between May and August. He pointed out that the ANC had, over its 30 years in power, put in place the building blocks of a social democratic state. These include:</p>
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<li><p>a <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a> that guarantees human rights to all South Africans and is much admired around the world</p></li>
<li><p>protecting workers’ rights, promoting investment and economic development and providing a legal framework for black economic empowerment </p></li>
<li><p>an active role for South Africa on the international stage, and solidarity with people struggling for their rights and striving for a just world order.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Assuming the moral high ground by <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/politics/anc-in-full-support-of-sas-case-against-israel-in-">supporting the cause of Palestine</a> was a reminder of the ANC that once won the hearts of many South Africans and international supporters: principled and standing up for justice, as it had done in the struggle against apartheid.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa highlighted the oft-repeated statistics reflecting “delivery” by the ANC-led government since 1994: </p>
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<li><p><a href="https://www.dhs.gov.za/content/media-statements/human-settlements-delivers-47-million-houses-1994">4.7 million houses</a> have been built and provided “mahala” (for free) to South Africans, including houses allocated to nearly 2 million women </p></li>
<li><p>89% of households now have access to water and 85% have <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=12211">access to electricity</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2024-01-15-listen-28-million-people-rely-on-social-grants-ramaphosa-boasts-about-ancs-efforts-to-prevent-poverty/">more than 28 million people</a> are beneficiaries of social grants aimed at alleviating poverty.</p></li>
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<p>Along the way, mistakes had been made, Ramaphosa said. But the ANC stood resolute in addressing the stubborn legacy of colonialism, apartheid and patriarchy.</p>
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<p>Not much was said about these mistakes. The ANC is nursing its fragile unity ahead of a general election later this year. Tactically, it might have been wiser for the party to own up to some of its shortcomings, as this could have denied its opponents and critics the chance to <a href="https://dailyinvestor.com/south-africa/41313/cyril-ramaphosa-celebrates-28-million-grant-recipients-four-times-the-number-of-taxpayers/">ridicule some of its claims</a>. </p>
<p>As a political scientist, I am interested in the ingredients of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sandy-Africa">durable democracies in post-conflict societies</a>, including South Africa, Mauritania and Libya. Thirty years after its first democratic elections, the stakes are high for the ANC as the party that took the lead in ushering in a new era.</p>
<h2>Despair and frustration</h2>
<p>It is an open secret that the party has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/factionalism-and-corruption-could-kill-the-anc-unless-it-kills-both-first-116924">riven by factions</a>. And the state it runs has been <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">racked by corruption</a> for which few have been held accountable.</p>
<p>The perception that South Africa has been unsuccessful in the fight against corruption has dented the country’s image, and lessened its international leverage and stature. </p>
<p>This, in spite of the ANC government having <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202105/national-anti-corruption-strategy-2020-2030.pdf">an anti-corruption strategy</a>. And, to the chagrin of some members, the party has insisted that those facing allegations of corruption must <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-01-06-anc-resolves-to-keep-step-aside-rule-with-case-reviews-every-six-months/">relinquish state and party positions</a>.</p>
<p>There is disappointment that the reversal of the perception of a party mired in corruption has been <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/columnists/sipho-masondo/sipho-masondo-instead-of-our-greatest-moment-ramaphosa-has-been-our-greatest-disappointment-20230502">slow in the making</a>. </p>
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<p>There is a mood of despair over <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/speeches/minister-bheki-cele-second-quarter-crime-statistics-20232024-17-nov-2023">high levels of crime and violence</a>. There is also widespread frustration over <a href="https://wandilesihlobo.com/2023/01/14/crumbling-basic-infrastructure-limits-south-africas-agriculture-and-tourism-growth-potential/">crumbling infrastructure</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-revolting-against-inept-local-government-why-it-matters-155483">poor service delivery</a>.</p>
<p>Lashing out at detractors, a confident Ramaphosa said that South Africa was markedly different to that of 30 years ago – and that this was an achievement of the ANC.</p>
<p>He urged members and supporters to campaign for a decisive victory and avoid a coalition with other political parties. Coalitions, he argued, did not benefit the people but the deal-makers who came from the smaller parties. This argument is not without merit – the coalitions have <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/news/entry/coalitions-the-new-normal-in-south-africa">rendered some municipalities dysfunctional</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, in spite of the public pronouncements, the ANC may be bracing itself for a coalition government. Several surveys say the party will garner <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/anc-polling-under-50-for-2024--brenthurst-foundati">less than 50% of the vote</a> needed to form a government. </p>
<p>The largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has struck a deal with like-minded parties in the hope of <a href="https://mg.co.za/politics/2023-08-17-opposition-parties-agree-on-moonshot-coalition-vision-principles-and-priorities/">unseating the ANC</a>.</p>
<h2>Wooing young voters</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa’s speech reflected the party’s comfort zone, one in which it does not have to appease multiple factions. But this may be a short-lived luxury.</p>
<p>In addition to having to contend with a record number of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67741527">splinter formations</a> in the <a href="https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/">upcoming general elections</a>, the ANC is also facing a generational change. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/">2024 general election</a> may become the battle for the soul of the young voter. If that is the case, then the ANC needs a fresh image, one less reliant on its history as a liberation movement. It must reflect the interests and aspirations of potential supporters more: <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/statistics-south-africa-quarterly-labour-force-survey-quarter-three-2023-14">unemployed youth</a>, women under constant threat of <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad738-south-africans-see-gender-based-violence-as-most-important-womens-rights-issue-to-address/">gender-based violence</a>; the <a href="https://debtline.co.za/south-africas-middle-class-is-r10k-poorer-than-in-2016/#:%7E:text=The%20financial%20landscape%20for%20South,compared%20to%20their%202016%20earnings.">financially squeezed middle class</a>, and those living in crowded, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10708-022-10808-z">uninhabitable circumstances</a>. </p>
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<p>Ramaphosa called on supporters to stand up against gender-based violence, and to resist the exclusion of marginalised people, such as the LGBTQI community and disabled persons. He acknowledged the positive role of the youth in society, and commended the ANC Youth League <a href="https://www.enca.com/top-stories/anc-youth-league-wants-more-young-people-parliament">for their inputs</a> in shaping the statement. He promised that the party would attend to their concerns and recommendations: </p>
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<li><p>beneficiation of raw materials </p></li>
<li><p>reindustrialisation of the economy </p></li>
<li><p>the energy crisis</p></li>
<li><p>the climate crisis</p></li>
<li><p>the quality of public services. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These items are already on the ANC’s policy programme being implemented in government. So if the party had been more astute, the January 8 statement could have indicated, especially to its younger constituency, what would be done differently this time round. As it is, these items also feature high on the list of priorities of other political parties, including those formed in recent months.</p>
<h2>Bravado amid disillusionment</h2>
<p>The ANC, through its January 8 statement, put on a show of bravado. However, it would be foolhardy of it to ignore the fact that the political terrain has shifted.</p>
<p>Even long-serving members within its ranks have become disillusioned with the party, as evidenced by the recent <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/why-i-am-resigning-from-the-anc--mavuso-msimang">resignation of ANC veteran Mavuso Msimang</a>, who later retracted his decision. Not all of these can be labelled rogue ex-members. In any case it is just posturing for the ANC to claim that it is and has been the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-insists-its-still-a-political-vanguard-this-is-what-ails-democracy-in-south-africa-141938">only vehicle</a> through which citizens can express their political agency. </p>
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<p>The ANC leans heavily on its liberation movement brand. But this will not necessarily be a determining factor in who will sway voters later this year. Many see the ANC as having brought the country <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2023-03-01-the-anc-has-mastered-the-art-of-demolition-not-building/">to the brink of failure</a>. Others see its policies as centrist and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-isnt-ready-to-radically-transform-the-south-african-economy-75004">not radical enough</a>.</p>
<p>The governing party has only a few months in which to persuade voters to give it yet another chance to govern South Africa. It won’t be easy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sandy Africa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ANC leans heavily on its liberation movement brand. But this will not necessarily be a determining factor in who will sway voters later this year.Sandy Africa, Associate Professor, Political Sciences, and Deputy Dean Teaching and Learning (Humanities), University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296442020-01-09T17:09:27Z2020-01-09T17:09:27ZANC’s anniversary statement – damp squib or new benchmark for South Africa?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309281/original/file-20200109-80148-8j3rgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa and the governing African National Congress. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The statement issued by the African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s governing party, each January to mark the anniversary of its launch in 1912, is many things to many people. It is a multipurpose vehicle to celebrate the party’s milestones as well as to mobilise and lure followers. It is both a sermon and a show to keep the faithful close. It also provides a rare window into the state of the organisation. </p>
<p>The statement meshes into ANC election campaigns. The messages and slogans reflect what the organisation believes is necessary and useful to say. It plasters over cracks and is the stage for birthday praise songs and public relations exercises, rather than a frank assessment of the party’s performance and its government.</p>
<p>Yet, year after year the statement also reveals the soul of a former liberation movement that has been <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.18772/12015108844">enduring in government</a>. </p>
<p>Come Saturday 11 January 2020, when the party celebrates its 108th birthday, the statement will be big on popular mobilisation and keeping the poor and the young close. It will reflect on 108 years of the party’s existence and 25 years in power, and prepare for going into a fourth set of <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2019-06-27-cabinet-sets-up-committee-to-prepare-for-2021-municipal-election/">local government elections in 2021</a>.</p>
<h2>Expectations</h2>
<p>This time around the prevailing political, <a href="https://theconversation.com/tough-times-and-bad-advice-are-holding-back-south-africas-economy-125990">economic</a> and government crises add layers of expectations to the January 8 anniversary statement. It will be interpreted as a test for the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa and his command of the fractious governing party.</p>
<p>It will also be watched for signs of the president’s and his party’s ability to remain faithful to their 2019 election promises of ethical and effective governance, rooting out corruption, and for iterations on already agreed policy directions for the party and its government.</p>
<p>Given that the January 8 statement is not a state-of-the-nation address or a national budget statement, the most that may be hoped for is for it to provide evidence of a president who is confident, clear and courageous. That means a leader who can lead the governing party and the state to give effect to the 2019 statement, which confirms government policy and cleanup priorities for the year. Ramaphosa has allowed himself to be held back, so far, by the tenuous scale of his victory as party leader at the ANC’s national conference <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-has-a-new-leader-but-south-africa-remains-on-a-political-precipice-89248">in 2017</a>, and the internal threats to his authority. His leadership came to be seen as weak and wavering.</p>
<p>Even if the January 8 statement is a collective document by the ANC’s national executive committee, its highest decision-making body in between its five-yearly elective conferences, Ramaphosa’s tone and choice of words in his delivery will give clues as to the state of the organisation. This at a time of debilitating disunity and internal proxy-policy contests for position and influence <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-01-07-anc-anniversary-during-a-time-of-crisis/">over the state and its patronage networks</a>.</p>
<p>The ANC’s policy directions to government are by now agreed and confirmed. They have already been announced in the January 8 statements he delivered in 2018 and 2019, even if they are continuously used as weapons in factional party warfare against him. </p>
<p>For example, he is accused of failing to implement agreed party resolutions regarding the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-12-04-parliament-gives-go-ahead-for-land-expropriation-without-compensation/">expropriation of land without compensation</a>, and to <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2019-06-06-no-nationalisation-of-reserve-bank-anc-top-six">nationalise the country’s Reserve Bank</a>. The processes to change land policy are unfolding in conformity with the policy resolutions, even if incrementally. The Reserve Bank resolution is tame enough to follow.</p>
<p>These policy directions have been transferred into government processes, and have been aligned with dire socio-economic needs and requirements for stable government. The questions that remain are the speed and determination of implementation. Ramaphosa’s delivery of the address could go a long way to confirming his ownership of “contested” policies, and his command of the ANC.</p>
<p>Other watermarks that will define the 2020 statement will be improved public service and administration, as promised in January 2019. And so will the trapeze act to restructure and rescue state-owned enterprises. Such a restructuring has to be done without alienating labour, in particular the ANC’s governing alliance partners – the <a href="http://www.cosatu.org.za/">Congress of South African Trade Unions</a> and the <a href="https://www.sacp.org.za/">South African Communist Party</a>.</p>
<h2>Tough task</h2>
<p>The ANC’s task of positioning the 2020 statement will be complicated. There is hardly an angle, spin or tactic that has not yet been offered in the January 8 statements to date, especially in the 25 years since it assumed power. The increasingly cynical citizens have <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anc-january-8th-statements">heard it all before</a>.</p>
<p>With only minor exceptions, each statement has had an overarching theme, pertinent to the times, to help mobilise for organisational unity and people’s support of the ANC. These two frequent <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anc-january-8th-statements">past themes</a> also reflect problems in today’s ANC. </p>
<h2>Electioneering</h2>
<p>The 2020 January 8 statement will also be a typical pre-election-year statement. Expect emphasis on mobilisation and unity, and reassurances that the ANC remains on the side of the poor. All this despite lacklustre government performance, corruption and squandering of state resources.</p>
<p>A foretaste of the 2021 local elections could already be seen in ANC top officials saying that the statement will aim at <a href="http://www.702.co.za/podcasts/176/the-best-of-breakfast-with-bongani-bingwa/278075/the-anc-wants-to-revive-hope-ahead-of-8-jan-statement">instilling and reviving hope</a>. </p>
<p>The core ANC anniversary theme will be to bring the people back into its fold, <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-05-16-the-2019-elections-partial-endorsements/">even if this task is progressively difficult</a>. </p>
<p>It will find the statistics to persuade South Africans that progress has been definitive, that the state can still turn the corner – just needing the ongoing endorsement of a former liberation movement that is valiantly challenging the monster of past injustices.</p>
<p>The electorate has become increasingly cynical and distrusting of the ANC government’s ability to <a href="https://www.bbrief.co.za/2018/03/06/2018-edelman-trust-barometer-reveals-a-further-drop-in-trust-in-south-africa/">give substance to its aspirational statements</a>. But when it comes to elections and voter choices, the party remains largely unchallenged. This confidence is likely to be tangible in the January 8 statement.</p>
<h2>Towards a real “New Dawn”?</h2>
<p>The task for the ANC is to show that the arrogance of wielding such enormous power, despite its <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-05-16-the-2019-elections-partial-endorsements/">fractiousness and fragility as an organisation</a>, does not further contaminate government. That every ounce of time and resources is expended working for the people of South Africa. Only if and when that happens can the now clichéd <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-03-20-from-new-dawn-to-dust-the-implosion-of-ramaphoria/">New Dawn</a> promised by President Ramaphosa become reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Booysen is affiliated with Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA).</span></em></p>The most that may be hoped for from the party’s annual statement is evidence of a president who is confident, clear and courageous.Susan Booysen, Research director at Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra), Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1097842019-01-13T09:18:04Z2019-01-13T09:18:04ZRamaphosa sets out a bold vision for South Africa. But can he pull it off?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253525/original/file-20190113-43544-1bxl9fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at the launch of the governing ANC's 2019 elections manifesto in Durban.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As South Africa heads for the polls in a few months time in its sixth democratic election, political party electioneering has begun in earnest. </p>
<p>President Cyril Ramaphosa kick started the governing African National Congress’s (ANC’s) election campaign in his <a href="https://www.power987.co.za/news/read-cyril-ramaphosas-january-8-statement/">January 8th Statement</a> celebrating 107 years since the birth of the liberation movement. This campaign continued with the launch of the <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2019/01/12/must-read-the-anc-s-2019-elections-manifesto">ANC’s manifesto</a> at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in KwaZulu-Natal on January 12. An estimated 80 000 ANC members and supporters attended the launch.</p>
<p>The ANC declared 2019 the year for “united action to grow South Africa”. This year sees a continuation of the dominant themes of unity, hope and <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/ramaphosa-promises-corruption-crackdown-at-maiden-sona-20180216">renewal</a>, for both the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-11-the-partys-over-anc-sees-decline-in-support">troubled ANC</a> and South Africa, which Ramaphosa has reiterated since he assumed the presidency in February 2018. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa noted that he was presenting a plan:</p>
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<p>that we have forged together to respond to the challenges of unemployment, inequality and poverty.</p>
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<p>South Africa’s political parties – 285 are <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2019-01-10-84-new-political-parties-hoping-for-your-vote-in-may-elections/">contesting the elections </a> – will soon be providing the country with their priorities and plans. The key question will be which plan is robust enough to turn the country around from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-anc-itself-is-the-chief-impediment-to-ramaphosas-agenda-108781">trajectory of despair</a> that overwhelmed it under former president Jacob Zuma.</p>
<p>The same applies to the ANC. Are their nuggets of hope that something different will transpire if it’s elected for another five years? The majority of South Africans agree on the challenges, but does the party have effective solutions and the political will to implement them? Can the ANC’s vision provide all South Africans with a common agenda and a renewed sense of purpose?</p>
<p>It won’t be easy. The roar of support for Zuma as he left the stadium is a telling sign of the deep divisions within the ANC, despite the shows of solidarity. It’s still an open question as to whether its change in leadership is enough to ensure that the party – and the country – doesn’t make a u-turn and head back towards the path of despair.</p>
<p>For now, all the right noises are being made to, as Ramaphosa put it, </p>
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<p>restore our democratic institutions and return our country to a path of transformation, growth and development. </p>
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<p>But the ANC still needs to develop the toolbox for mobilisation and implementation to get this done. The vision articulated by Ramaphosa has the seeds for galvanising South Africans to get back on the right path. It urgently needs a plan to make it happen.</p>
<h2>The commitments</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://uir.unisa.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10500/3761/thesis_tshawane_n.pdf">“Rainbow nation”</a> seems to have revealed all its ugly stripes over the past few years: a rise in <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-12-10-racism-complaints-by-blacks-are-on-the-rise-with-gauteng-the-worst/">incidents of racism</a>, <a href="https://www.enca.com/south-africa/claims-of-tribalism-emerge-as-vuwani-shutdown-continues">tribalism</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/xenophobia-in-south-africa-why-its-time-to-unsettle-narratives-about-migrants-102616">xenophobia</a>, factionalism and continued high levels of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-link-between-violence-against-women-and-children-matters-heres-why-106942">gender-based violence</a>. </p>
<p>This has necessitated the emphasis on unity, non-racialism, equality and managed migration that echo in Ramaphosa’s statements. It’s bold of him to want to put the country back on the principled path of non-racialism amid a rising race-based populism. But calling on South Africans to abide by the principle isn’t enough. Making this long standing principle a lived reality, when race still largely defines where South Africans live and work and their life’s chances, is a big task. As Ramaphosa <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2019/01/12/must-read-the-anc-s-2019-elections-manifesto">notes</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>the promise of freedom is yet to be realised for so many of our people.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The core of the ANC’s plan revolves around the building of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-anc-turn-south-africa-into-a-developmental-welfare-state-64919">developmental state </a> that will create inclusive growth, stimulate investment, create jobs and drive infrastructure development. It also seeks to provide for skills development, progressive free higher education and access to health care. It’s also promising to facilitate redistribution through land expropriation and compensation. And it’s committing itself to strengthening governance and service delivery through reclaiming state enterprises and government institutions.</p>
<p>There is nothing really new here. The ANC has been making these promises since it came to power 25 years ago. What is going to be different this time around so that implementation can yield the desired results? Ramaphosa’s <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-12-20-cyril-ramaphosas-2018-thuma-mina-moments/">Thuma mina</a> (send me) call to South Africans to join him in working for a better country?</p>
<p>This may indeed be the glue the country needs for citizens to all begin to work together to achieve these laudable goals. But, again, proclaiming it will not make it happen. </p>
<p>How does the country get the nation-building spirit of <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/content/page/biography">Nelson Mandela</a> back? How can people working in the public service be made to change their attitudes and deliver what they are employed to do? How does the country stop graft? How can South Africans be made to sign onto a new social contract that requires both citizens and government to determine what they want, how they will live together and how they collectively fulfil their roles and responsibilities to make good on the contract? </p>
<p>The country needs to have many local dialogues in all its nine provinces that can develop a new charter for South Africans to live by. A plan that emanates from the people, for the people.</p>
<h2>Can the ANC deliver?</h2>
<p>I am encouraged by the strong stance against gender-based violence in Ramaphosa’s manifesto statement. But the ANC now needs to figure out how it is going to make sure that the pledge to stop the scourge will go further than the show of solidarity at the stadium. Every man and woman in South Africa should make a monthly pledge to uphold the human rights and safety of all citizens and prevent gender based violence. Citizens need to hold one another to account for its implementation. </p>
<p>Only when the scourge of this violence has been eradicated will South Africans be able to meaningfully begin to speak of equality and dignity for all. This is not something the ANC can do on its own, it needs the whole of society. </p>
<p>If globally – and across the continent – South Africa wants to champion the transformation of multilateral institutions, silence the guns and achieve women’s security, it needs a plan that can provide it with the national credibility and legitimacy to do so. </p>
<p>The elephant in the room is whether or not the ANC can overcome its divisions to deliver effectively.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cheryl Hendricks is the Executive Director of the Africa Institute of South Africa at the Human Science Research Council which receives funding from multiple funding sources.</span></em></p>The vision set out by Cyril Ramaphosa has the seeds for galvanising South Africans to get back on the right path. But it urgently needs a plan to make it happen.Cheryl Hendricks, Executive director, Africa Institute of South Africa, Human Sciences Research CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/898862018-01-10T07:59:15Z2018-01-10T07:59:15ZSouth Africans are trying to decode Ramaphosa (and getting it wrong)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201374/original/file-20180109-36025-1420ocr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa has been the subject of much scrutiny during his rise to the party's top position.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS/GovernmentZA/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the Cold War, a new profession emerged – “<a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Kremlinology">Kremlinologists</a>”, a hodge-podge of academics, journalists, other scoundrels, and commentators, who would study every minute detail of the behaviour of Soviet Union leaders when they were in public. </p>
<p>They examined who stood next to whom, whose chair was closer or further away from the leader, who looked at whom and who was ignored. And then came to profound conclusions about the intentions of the old Kremlin. </p>
<p>The Germans invented a rather better word for it - “Kreml-Astrologie” (Kremlin Astrology), reminding us that quackery of this sort is generally just plain wrong.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/cyril-matamela-ramaphosa">Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-has-a-new-leader-but-south-africa-remains-on-a-political-precipice-89248">new president</a> of South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), is generating a similar type of interest and a new industry of Cyril-ologists. The commentariat has been in overdrive since the ANC’s elective conference in December, trying to tell South Africans (and Ramaphosa) exactly what he’s thinking, what he’s missed, what his strategy is or will be, and what he should do. They tell the country how he will play the short or long game against President Jacob Zuma’s faction in the ANC, or what he will do against others in the “top 6” leadership of the governing party. And on and on it goes, based on very little.</p>
<p>Many are pushing their own agenda, rather unsubtly; but in large part this is occurring because Ramaphosa plays his cards close to his chest, and allows South Africans to inscribe onto his image the leader they wish him to be. </p>
<p>He is, of course, a highly adept politician. He can’t really lose if every possible future action has been rehearsed by one soothsayer or another.</p>
<h2>Saint or sinner?</h2>
<p>The challenges are twofold: one is trying to work out what Ramaphosa is thinking and planning, which is reasonable enough; the second, however, are the commentators demanding that he follow this or that course of action. He “must” fire Zuma or he “must” build unity or he “must” leave the Reserve Bank alone …. on and on the list of demands goes. </p>
<p>It’s well known that he’s a successful businessman. Apparently, he is <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2018/01/08/ramaphosa-anc-collectivism/?acid=zjwGI8HFCeceZeuwhd4cWQ%3D%3D&adid=JN2%2FW7Ea3U4Q9pc0JfeOsA%3D%3D&date=2018-01-09">“uber wealthy”</a>, so wealthy in fact, as Gwede Mantashe, chairman of the ANC said, that he doesn’t need to <a href="http://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/ramaphosa-wont-steal-because-he-is-rich--gwede-man">steal from the state</a>. </p>
<p>But how rich is he in reality? No one has a clue. </p>
<p>But mention land expropriation and he turns from <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/21/anc-s-decision-on-land-expropriation-without-compensation-a-radical-move">saviour to sinner in a flash</a>. The admiring Cyril-ologists who want “stability” are reduced to shock and horror when he talks of using the <a href="https://www.power987.co.za/news/politics/read-ramaphosas-full-maiden-speech-as-anc-president/">land productively</a>, or economic transformation, or uses the word “radical” at all, as if the inequality bred from the status quo is not about to sink the entire boat.</p>
<p>For others, Ramaphosa is an evil capitalist from whose hands the blood of <a href="https://theconversation.com/marikana-tragedy-must-be-understood-against-the-backdrop-of-structural-violence-in-south-africa-43868">Marikana</a> – the scene of the death of 34 miners at the hands of the police – will <a href="https://citizen.co.za/opinion/opinion-columns/1613696/marikana-continues-to-haunt-ramaphosa/">never be cleansed</a>. The evangelical left will never forget or forgive him for this – and they may be correct. But at some point the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2015-06-26-marikana-report-key-findings-and-recommendations/#.WlSqBZP1XbM">findings of the Farlam Commission</a> that there was no causal link between Ramaphosa’s e-mails and the appalling events that unfolded will have to be accepted.</p>
<p>For others, simply not being Zuma, or in the <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/download-the-full-state-of-capture-pdf-20161102">“state capture” </a>crony list, is sufficient. This is a man who didn’t even make the index at the back of Jacques Pauw’s explosive book, <a href="https://www.cna.co.za/the-most-riveting-new-book.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI25OOw47L2AIVBpPtCh397wg6EAAYASAAEgICXfD_BwE">The President’s Keepers</a>, in which so many of the ANC glitterati played a starring role. Ramaphosa doesn’t need to be a saint, just not a sinner of Zuma’s magnitude or ineptitude. </p>
<p>And for yet another camp, this is a second (and possibly final) chance for the ANC, if not the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-01-09-op-ed-cyril-ramaphosas-presidency-an-opportunity-for-clean-up-and-new-beginning/#.WlR9-pP1XbM">entire progressive movement</a> to (try again to) get it right. He is seen as the best (if not the only) chance the ANC has to return to a transparent, democratic project with progressive impulses that puts the needs of the poor ahead of the elite. </p>
<p>The will to believe this is surprisingly strong given that loyal ANC members have seen the party’s fairly radical programme of 1994 replaced first with strict fiscal controls under Thabo Mbeki and then with all-out looting under Zuma. Ramaphosa - central to the democratic project in the 1990s (and not an exile) – is the beneficiary of this almost mystical hope.</p>
<p>He is also frequently referred to as an enigma – describing himself <a href="http://www.jacana.co.za/book-categories/political-history-and-current-affair/cyril-ramaphosa-detail">as such</a> to biographer Anthony Butler at their first meeting. The problem with enigmatic leaders is that they tend to be … well, enigmatic, and unavailable for “Astrologie” of any type.</p>
<h2>Master tactician and negotiator</h2>
<p>Perhaps it is easiest to use two categories that actually matter – his business interests are of limited interest as he heads to the Union Buildings, so too his enigmatic charm, or knowing the exact composition of his backroom team, or what he had for breakfast. </p>
<p>What matters is that he is a politician and a negotiator. Nimble and tactically shrewd seem perhaps more useful labels than saint or sinner. He plays the long game. Most commentators forget that, and demand immediate action - including the firing of some ministers and incompetent heads of state owned enterprises. They also want immediate judicial proceedings against the entire basket of deplorables in government, and other dramatic interventions.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa has been negotiating for the last 40 years, starting during his days in the National Union of Mineworkers followed by talks under the Convention for a Democratic South Africa <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa">(Codesa)</a> that ended apartheid, and topped by his role holding together the entire <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/writers-constitution-0">Constitutional Assembly</a> that wrote the country’s new constitution. </p>
<p>It’s remarkable – and a little ridiculous – that a man who crafted his victory against a formidable and highly resourced machinery, in a context of violence and fear (and considerable loathing), is expected suddenly to make rash moves to satisfy whoever is making their demand. So much for ‘Astrologie’.</p>
<p>One thing South Africans can probably be sure of: we won’t know what Ramaphosa plans to do until it is done. </p>
<p>We can watch who stands near him, who he smiles at and who not, who he backslaps and with whom he shakes hand, or read the entrails of a slaughtered beast – and be none the wiser. There will be few dramatic announcements, sudden ruptures, or grand gestures. </p>
<p>This is not a man to challenge at chess. He is also not a man who likes to lose. He may well be the only man able to get South Africa out of the looming economic checkmate bequeathed it by his predecessor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Everatt receives funding from research donors.</span></em></p>The study of Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s deputy president and new head of its governing party, is generating a great deal of heat, and not much light.David Everatt, Head of Wits School of Governance, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/704902017-01-08T06:43:47Z2017-01-08T06:43:47ZSouthern Africa’s former liberators offer rich lessons in political populism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150501/original/image-20161216-18030-7xyzpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A mural depicting populist dictators painted onto remnants of the Berlin Wall in Berlin in 2014. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Henning Melber</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political populism is anything but new. Nor are its various shapes peculiar to certain regions or cultures. </p>
<p>Take former liberation movements in southern Africa, for example. They reflect the diversity of populist regimes spanning over several decades. This is evident in Zimbabwe under the Zimbabwe African National Union <a href="http://www.zanupf.org.zw/">(ZANU-PF)</a> since 1980, Namibia under the South West African People’s Organisation <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-west-africa-peoples-organisation-swapo">(SWAPO)</a> since 1990 and South Africa under the African National Congress <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/organisations/african-national-congress-anc">(ANC)</a> since 1994.</p>
<p>The heroic narratives of liberation gospels were born in historical processes expected to achieve emancipation. Post liberation, these processes elevated the anti-colonial movements into governments in firm social control. </p>
<p>The state came to be understood as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-liberators-turn-into-oppressors-a-study-of-southern-african-states-57213">product of the new rulers</a>. These shaped and dominated the national discourse. They considered their power not only legitimate but endless. For example, <a href="http://www.swapoparty.org/in_honour_of_founding_president_dr_sam_nujoma_swapo_and_namibias_first_president.html">Sam Nujoma</a>, long-time president of SWAPO and former Namibian head of state, <a href="http://www.africafiles.org/article.asp?ID=24249">encouraged the SWAPO Youth League</a> in 2010 to “be on the full alert and remain vigilant against deceptive attempts by opportunists and unpatriotic elements that attempt to divide you.” Only, then, he asserted, would SWAPO “grow from strength to strength and continue to rule Namibia for the next ONE THOUSAND YEARS.”</p>
<p>South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma, recently asserted that, the governing ANC which he leads, would rule until the <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2016-07-05-zuma-repeats-that-anc-will-rule-until-jesus-comes">return of Jesus Christ</a>. In Zimbabwe, 92-year old Robert Mugabe has accepted a nomination to stand for <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38353298">another term in 2018</a> and suggested he might serve until he is 100.</p>
<p>For Mugabe, Nujoma, Zuma and the like, authority is anchored in the struggle narrative. The <a href="http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2013/07/09/curing-africas-big-man-syndrome/">“big men” syndrome</a> is part of their populism. </p>
<p>And by paying tribute to their peers, they applaud themselves. Namibia’s new president Hage Geingob, for example, has praised Mugabe as <a href="http://www.herald.co.zw/africa-needs-more-mugabes-2/">his role model</a>. Zambia’s late president Michael Sata sang Zimbabwean <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18125980902798573"><em>chimurenga</em> (liberation) songs</a> when Mugabe was criticised in closed heads of state meetings of the Southern Africa Development Community. </p>
<h2>Conflation and excuses</h2>
<p>During the struggle for liberation, the aspiration for self-determination was associated with a better future for the former colonised. But, subsequently, social transformation was mainly limited to political control under which the new elite gained access to resources through the state. </p>
<p>Such transition did not eliminate the colonial-era structural discrepancies. It privileged a few while the majority remained marginalised. A new compensatory ideology emerged, suggesting that the new injustice was purely the result of the colonial past.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the nostalgic <em>a luta continua</em> (the struggle continues) slogan degenerated into <a href="http://www.moneyweb.co.za/archive/happy-birthday-zimbabwe-aloota-continua/">“the looting continues”</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-patronage-and-state-capture-spell-trouble-for-south-africa-64704">State capture</a> has emerged as a new phenomenon.</p>
<p>Members of the new elite like to sing combat songs from the “struggle days” to show solidarity with the masses. They claim that they have not only sacrificed as liberation fighters but now work for a better future for the masses.</p>
<p>Claiming direct succession of the struggle aristocracy by singing liberation songs locates the fight in the past. As the social movement activist <a href="http://www.pambazuka.org/governance/%E2%80%98shoot-boers%E2%80%99-deflecting-attention-new-songs-protest">Mphutlane wa Bofelo</a> diagnosed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They want us to believe that the struggle is over, that all we have is remnants of the old order against whom our anger should be vented. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Frantz Fanon in <a href="http://abahlali.org/files/On_Violence.pdf">The Wretched of the Earth</a> diagnosed “The Pitfalls of National Consciousness” where the new state, instead of conveying a sense of security, trust and stability foists itself on the people, using mistreatment, intimidation and harassment as domesticating tools. The party in power “controls the masses … to remind them constantly that the government expects from them obedience and discipline.”</p>
<p>Corporate family bonds equating the state with personal business include the Angolan <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-luandas-residents-are-asking-where-did-all-the-oil-riches-go-49772">“oiligarchy”</a> by strongman Eduardo dos Santos and his clan. Family connections also played a role under Namibia’s three presidents – Sam Nujoma, Hifikepunye Pohamba and Hage Geingob – not to mention the Mugabe enterprise.</p>
<h2>No longer alternatives to the establishment</h2>
<p>Has populism in southern Africa reached an expiry date among the nationalist leaders? Maybe. What is certain is that the times are gone when leaders of the dominant parties could claim to be the alternative to the established system. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151919/original/image-20170106-18641-wbrjee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jacob Zuma.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They are the system, and the system is considered to be rotten. Their appeals to populist reminiscences of a bygone era of the “struggle days” sound increasingly hollow. Being driven in the latest makes of European luxury cars, escorted by motor cavalcades and flying in presidential jets to wine and dine with other leaders in the world are a mismatch with the liberation gospel. </p>
<p>At the funeral ceremony for Fidel Castro in Cuba, Hage Geingob praised the <em>comandante</em> for his conviction that “liberation of the oppressed should never be for economic gain, but only to gain in conscience.” People back home reacted with sarcasm: “What we see in Namibia”, stated an editorial of <a href="http://www.namibian.com.na/48750/read/Editorial--Posh-Life-Must-Die-to-Honour-Castro-Legacy"><em>The Namibian</em></a>, “is a total bankruptcy of ideology – talking left, walking right.” </p>
<p>In South Africa the former leader of the ANC Youth League, Julius Malema, now claims the populist space once occupied by Zuma. Malema fell out of favour with Zuma after <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Absence-of-the-best-led-to-Zuma-election-Malema-20150611">supporting him </a> on his way into office and has come back from the political cold with the <a href="http://effighters.org.za/">Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)</a>. Malema can be seen as the new populist on the ascendancy, challenging Zuma’s <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-02-05-jacob-zuma-and-julius-malema-a-collision-course-made-in-nkandla/#.WG9NWBt9600">“corrupt establishment”</a>. </p>
<p>The decay now is represented by <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-patronage-and-state-capture-spell-trouble-for-south-africa-64704">Zuma and his cohorts</a>. While they campaigned for a better future, their plunder of state controlled assets turned their populist rhetoric into a mockery of the people. But there are reasons to remain sceptical, that the new kids on the block are the true alternative they claim to be. Once in power, they might just turn out as old wine in new bottles, once again betraying those who trusted them to deliver. </p>
<p>The legitimacy and credibility of those in power has been eroded by bad governance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ancs-path-to-corruption-was-set-in-south-africas-1994-transition-64774">predatory networks</a> and the obsession to claim an exclusive agency representing the people. Their way out is the conspiracy theory: those in opposition to their continued abuse of offices are accused of being agents of Western imperialism tasked to initiate regime change. Zuma even identifies witches as part of a <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/143895/this-is-who-zuma-is-blaming-for-the-political-instability-in-south-africa/">“third force” conspiracy</a>. </p>
<p>Tinyiko Maluleke, a professor at the University of Pretoria posed an interesting question:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Haven’t we had in Jacob Zuma our own Donald Trump in advance?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He continued: “I think Jacob Zuma could teach Donald Trump a thing or two. And if I were Trump, I would seek to learn as much as possible from the rise and especially the imminent fall of Zuma.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974.</span></em></p>The legitimacy and credibility of those in power has been eroded by bad governance, patronage and the obsession to claim an exclusive agency representing the people.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/708662017-01-05T17:58:38Z2017-01-05T17:58:38ZRamaphosa has what it takes to fix South Africa’s ailing ANC. But …<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151714/original/image-20170104-18647-21pae9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cyril Ramaphosa celebrates his election as deputy president of South Africa's embattled governing ANC.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s deputy president <a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/leaders/profile/987">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> has confirmed his availability to <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/ramaphosa-i-am-available-to-lead-20161215">contest the presidency</a> of the governing <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/splash/index">ANC</a> at its 54th national conference later this year. He has already secured the endorsement of the South African Congress of Trade Unions <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/rdm/politics/2016-11-24-politics-live-why-cosatus-backing-is-a-big-deal-for-ramaphosa/">(Cosatu)</a>.</p>
<p>He failed in his bid to lead the party once before. Twenty years ago his comrades Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were chosen ahead of him for the top two jobs at the party’s <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anc-national-conference-1991-2013">1997 Mafikeng Conference</a>. If his dream is going to be realised this time he is going to have to take on a major task of convincing ANC branches of his suitability.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa will need a restoration and renewal narrative to convince them. He’ll need to show he has a plan to rebuild the party, and inspire its cadres sitting on the side-lines to join in his renewal efforts.</p>
<p>If successful, he will need to switch immediately to election campaigning mode. The country goes to the polls in 2019 and he will have to do everything in his powers to salvage the former liberation movement’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/sharp-tongued-south-african-voters-give-ruling-anc-a-stiff-rebuke-63606">declining electoral support</a>.</p>
<p>For South Africans at large, he will need to show how the ANC as a brand can reclaim its sentimental and inspirational traits to warrant their trust.</p>
<p>These tasks seem insurmountable when one considers the extent of damage done to the party since Zuma’s rise to power was solidified at the ANC’s bitterly divisive <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2012-11-02-polokwane-and-mangaung-shades-of-difference/#.WG36ext97IU">Polokwane conference in 2007</a>. But Ramaphosa has faced seemingly insurmountable tasks of building organisations in challenging times before. He has also served in various international organisations and has been a member of teams appointed to <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/cyril-ramaphosa-anthony-butler">help countries in transition</a>.</p>
<p>He will need to draw on all this experience to succeed.</p>
<h2>A history of organising under difficult conditions</h2>
<p>Born on November 17 1952, Ramaphosa is from a generation I <a href="http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fwMoyHJCMfM">regard as the agitators</a> in the struggle for South Africa’s liberation. Inspired by <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-bikos-black-consciousness-philosophy-resonates-with-youth-today-46909">Steve Biko</a>, among others, this generation – born in the early 40s to late 60s – injected greater momentum to the fight against apartheid in the 1970s and 1980s.</p>
<p>As a young person Ramaphosa was an active member of the erstwhile <a href="http://v1.sahistory.org.za/pages/people/bios/ramaphosa-cm.htm">Student Christian Movement</a> (SCM) at Sekano-Ntoane High School in Soweto. His evangelical experience cannot be understated in the task that confronts him now. Much like the biblical character <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Nehemiah+2&version=NKJV&interface=am">Nehemiah</a>, his task is to inspire a dejected and hopeless people with a new vision.</p>
<p>That will not be a new experience for Ramaphosa. As historian Anthony Butler writes, while pursuing standard nine and ten at Mphaphuli High School in his parents’ village of Sibasa in Venda, he built a <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/cyril-ramaphosa-anthony-butler">stronger SCM within a short time</a>. This was after he was elected to its leadership in the first year of his arrival.</p>
<p>The same happened when he went to study at the then University of the North (now University of Limpopo). The SCM was weak and seen by some as a tool of domination. Rhamaphosa worked tirelessly with <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/frank-chikane">Frank Chikane</a> and others to turn it into a vibrant organisation. It became a vehicle of struggle when the Black Consciousness student movements <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/banning-south-african-students-organisation-saso-and-student-politics-1980s">were banned</a>. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa’s claim to fame, however, is the work he did in founding the National Mineworkers Union (NUM) in the early 1980s. The NUM operated under the auspices of the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/council-unions-south-africa-cusa-formed">Council of Unions of South Africa</a>. Until then, attempts to unite mineworkers and fight for their representation in the mines had <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/cyril-ramaphosa-anthony-butler">failed</a>.</p>
<p>The fact that Ramaphosa was able to build a union in a mining industry fraught with ethnic politics, worker fragmentation and a history of state-sanctioned exploitation attests to his organisation building capabilities. This is especially so considering that he had never worked on the mines himself.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa’s colourful leadership continued over the next three decades across various settings. He became the ANC’s chief negotiator during the country’s transition from apartheid to democracy, beating ANC president Oliver Tambo’s protégé, Thabo Mbeki, to the position. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa became the secretary general of the ANC at its <a href="http://www.incwajana.com/cyril-ramaphosa/">1991 National Conference in Durban</a> after out-campaigning Zuma. He was succeeded in the position in 1997 by <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/kgalema-petrus-motlanthe">Kgalema Motlanthe</a>, with whom he had worked at the NUM. </p>
<p>As the chief negotiator of the ANC he managed the negotiating committee. He showed great leadership, alongside the National Party’s counterpart Roelf Meyer when the talks broke down.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151726/original/image-20170104-18644-10uzn9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151726/original/image-20170104-18644-10uzn9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151726/original/image-20170104-18644-10uzn9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151726/original/image-20170104-18644-10uzn9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151726/original/image-20170104-18644-10uzn9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151726/original/image-20170104-18644-10uzn9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151726/original/image-20170104-18644-10uzn9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyril Ramaphosa holds the newly signed South African Constitution as President Nelson Mandela looks on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ramaphosa became a member of parliament in 1994 and headed the constitutional assembly which <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/drafting-and-acceptance-constitution">drew up the final constitution</a> of the republic. This was finally approved – to international acclaim – in <a href="http://www.gov.za/documents/constitution/constitution-republic-south-africa-1996-1">1996</a>.</p>
<p>But after his crushing defeat by Mbeki to the post of deputy president in 1997 Ramaphosa went into business but maintained some involvement in politics. He was to make a sterling return 15 years later when he was elected ANC deputy president in 2012 at the <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/53rd-national-conference-mangaung">53rd National Conference</a> in Mangaung.</p>
<h2>Ramaphosa the businessman</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa was among the first beneficiaries of the first wave of <a href="http://www.gov.za/broad-based-black-economic-empowerment-summit">equity-based black economic empowerment deals</a> in 1997. In partnership with medical doctor and anti-apartheid activist <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/nthato-harrison-motlana">Nthato Motlana</a> he joined <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=883851">New African Investment Limited</a>. From those early beginnings he was to form <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=25599686">Shanduka Group</a>, an unlisted entity with interests in resources, energy, real estate, banking, insurance and telecommunications. </p>
<p>He also chaired a number of South Africa’s largest companies, such as <a href="http://www.bidvest.com/downloads/pdf/Bidvest_Prod_Bro_Aug2013.pdf">Bidvest Group</a> and <a href="https://www.mtn.co.za/Pages/Home.aspx">MTN</a> and held non-executive board positions of others such as <a href="http://www.standardbank.co.za/standardbank/">Standard Bank</a> and <a href="http://www.ab-inbev.com/">SABMiller</a>.</p>
<p>His most <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2015-06-19-00-marikana-shootings-will-always-stalk-ramaphosa">controversial role</a> was as a non-executive member of the mining group Lonmin’s board. Shanduka was a minority shareholder in Lonmin, which owned the mine in Marikana <a href="https://theconversation.com/marikana-tragedy-must-be-understood-against-the-backdrop-of-structural-violence-in-south-africa-43868">where 34 miners were shot by police in 2012</a>.</p>
<h2>Leadership qualities</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa has the leadership experience to salvage the ANC and become a great president with a wide range of skills. He has the potential to restore hope at the top of the ANC following a period of mediocrity and scandal.</p>
<p>However, while he has a chance in convincing ANC members of his potential, the broader South African public will be even harder to convince. Firstly, as a key player at Lonmin, Ramaphosa is seen as having failed to improve the working conditions of the mineworkers he fought for in the 1980s. </p>
<p>Secondly, his relationship with Zuma, whom he has served as deputy president, has led to some awkward questions. Until last year he appeared to be complacent – or actively defended – Zuma even as the president became more deeply embroiled in alleged corruption scandals. This silence was evident even when Zuma was accused of violating the constitution Ramaphosa was party to creating.</p>
<p>It may be that Ramaphosa has the restoration and renewal narrative – as well as the organisational building skills and tenacity – to turn his own fate and that of the ANC around, but it’s going to be a ‘<a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-12-05-ramaphosa-my-long-walk-has-not-yet-ended/#.WG4S0xt97IU">long walk</a>’ as he put it. Time will tell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ongama Mtimka chairs the board of Isidima Development Council which seeks to advance socioeconomic transformation in the Eastern Cape. </span></em></p>Cyril Ramaphosa is in pole position to become president of South Africa’s ruling ANC, 20 years after he lost the position by Thabo Mbeki. But, it won’t be easy. Neither will rebuilding the party.Ongama Mtimka, Lecturer and PhD Candidate, Department of Political & Conflict Studies, Nelson Mandela UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/706622017-01-04T13:27:47Z2017-01-04T13:27:47ZSouth Africa’s ANC can only be salvaged by leadership of epic ethical proportions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151006/original/image-20161220-26715-12w9c9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's President Jacob Zuma (left), who is also the president of the governing ANC, and his deputy Cyril Ramaphosa.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What a year 2016 was for South Africa. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/sharp-tongued-south-african-voters-give-ruling-anc-a-stiff-rebuke-63606">August 3 municipal polls</a> consigned the governing African National Congress (ANC) to the opposition benches in some municipalities, including the major urban areas. This makes 2016 a defining year in the history of the country’s electoral politics.</p>
<p>Beyond being political rituals with prescribed rites overseen by the Electoral Commission (IEC), <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-954X.1987.tb00556.x/abstract">“elections decide politics”</a>. There is more to them than just casting of a vote. </p>
<p>After two decades of political dominance, the ANC’s electoral performance <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Municipal-elections-results/">came down to its lowest</a> since it became the governing party. But is the party unravelling? This is the question it takes into the New Year. </p>
<p>To many, an answer is writ large. But, is it, really?</p>
<p>I ask this question because despite its weakened position the ANC still managed to garner more than 50% support, with the main opposition <a href="https://www.da.org.za/">Democratic Alliance (DA)</a> trailing at 26,9% while the <a href="http://effighters.org.za/">Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)</a> could only <a href="http:www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Municipal-elections-results">get 8.19%</a>. Statistically, 27% margin of variation between the ANC and DA is too wide to disentangle the dominant party equilibrium.</p>
<h2>Electoral dominance vs hegemony</h2>
<p>The ANC is still ahead of many other political parties. Because of this some argue that a dominant party system is still intact, implying that the party’s political hegemony is not unravelling. </p>
<p>That the ANC is statistically ahead electorally is true, especially on the basis of its aggregate electoral performance. But electoral dominance does not equal political hegemony. This is because where there are a “small number of large parties” and patron-based <a href="http://vc.bridgew.edu/polisci_fac/25/">“large number of small parties”</a> electoral statistics often mask the truth. </p>
<p>As the Italian neo-Marxist theorist <a href="https://www.coursehero.com/file/p7tn6mo/Geertz-C-19641973-The-interpretation-of-cultures-New-York-Basic-Books-Gerring-J/">Antonio Gramsci explains</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Hegemony belongs to those who enjoy the greatest ideological resonance in society.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hegemony is therefore a function of the ability to galvanise a following based on political acumen to map social reality and create <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Interpretation_of_Cultures.html?id=BZ1BmKEHti0C">“collective conscience”</a>. Does the ANC’s 53.91% aggregate voter support in the 2016 municipal polls imply this?</p>
<p>This percentage obfuscates a woefully dismal showing in the metropolitan areas. These areas are <a href="http://www.africaresearchinstitute.org/newsite/publications/briefing-notes/south-africas-watershed-elections-awry-the-beloved-country/">“home to some 40% of the population”</a> as well as majority of young black middle-class professionals.</p>
<p>But most people in this constituency have dual domicile, straddling urban and rural areas. Their following of a political party is not necessarily based on historical affinities, but the logic of ideas that are in sync with their epoch.</p>
<p>This urban-based strata of voters influences the countryside voters, who depend on the former for their subsistence. In this relationship there is the power to influence. </p>
<h2>Misconceptions about the urban/rural divide</h2>
<p>The black urbanites with rural connections – largely educated and perhaps with the streaks of sophistication – wittingly or unwittingly impart their political choices in their interactions with the countryside. These influence voter behaviour. The countryside vote is therefore not entirely a reliable pillar for political longevity.</p>
<p>The ANC’s support in the urban areas is declining. That its performance is propped up largely by the rural vote may be a harbinger for its atrophy. In the illusion of the ANC’s invincibility based on the rural support, its president appears to want it to be a rural party, mocking the black middle class as <a href="http://www.news24.com/Archives/City-Press/Zuma-scolds-clever-blacks-20150429">“clever blacks”</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151009/original/image-20161220-26715-13fglp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151009/original/image-20161220-26715-13fglp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151009/original/image-20161220-26715-13fglp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151009/original/image-20161220-26715-13fglp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151009/original/image-20161220-26715-13fglp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151009/original/image-20161220-26715-13fglp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151009/original/image-20161220-26715-13fglp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ANC supporters at the launch of its local government election manifesto.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This has pernicious implications. It is at odds with the historical foundation of the ANC as an urban-based party. Compounding matters is that the ANC’s rural support is <a href="https:www.businesslive.co.za/politics/2016-10-29-the-truth-about-the-ancs-descent-down-the-ladder-of-power">actually declining</a>. Overtime, its sanctuary in the rural vote is going to vanish. </p>
<p>Doesn’t this make the black middle class a strategic bet to reclaim political hegemony and longevity?</p>
<h2>Elections and the middle-class</h2>
<p>Elections are important in many ways. As the American political scientist <a href="http://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/catalog/72shy2en9780252012020.html">Murray Edelman explains</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>(They) give people a chance to express discontents and enthusiasm, to enjoy a sense of involvement [in the democratic process], [to] draw attention to common social ties and to the importance and apparent reasonableness of accepting public policies that are adopted.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>All these are necessary to consolidate democracy. The urban voters are particularly important to this end. Largely, they are not voting fodder. Their participation in the elections is not ritualistic. It is a means to optimise accountability, to change the behaviour of those charged with the responsibility of managing public affairs.</p>
<p>A political party with strategic foresight consolidates urban support to incubate its ideological posture for electoral virility. Ideological resonance is measured by the extent to which the enlightened subscribe to a party’s system of ideas. This is important to ensure that, in <a href="https://books.google.fr/books/about/The_German_Ideology.html?id=DujYWG8TPMMC&hl=fr">Marx and Engels words</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The ruling material force in society is at the same its intellectual force. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Political hegemony is created and maintained this way. With the abstention of the black middle class, especially in the urban areas, does the ANC still command political hegemony? Or has it become a ruling class without hegemony?</p>
<h2>Silver line in the ANC’s defeat</h2>
<p>In the cities such as Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay, coalition arrangements had to be structured because there were no outright winners. This spawned minority governments. There is at least a silver line in this. </p>
<p>The ANC’s loss does not necessarily mean that the opposition parties performed better. Much as they appear to have made inroads into the support base of the ANC, in the main voter abstention accounted for its diminishing electoral prospects. </p>
<p>The voters did not necessarily abandon it. They just withheld their vote. Their gripe is about corruption, factionalism and slate politics.</p>
<p>If former public protector Thuli Madonsela’s <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/329757135/State-Capture-Report-2016#from_embed">State of Capture report</a> is anything to go by, state resources are being siphoned through state contracts, where the preoccupation is to profit from the state. </p>
<p>Venality creates the opportunity for state resources to be used to quench the insatiable lust for vanity, especially of the political elites, while those largely in the lower strata are kept perpetually hoping for a better life.</p>
<p>State resources are misappropriated for the personal aggrandisement of the political elites. Consequently, their personalities overshadow the party. Members become “members of members” rather of the party. Loyalties are due to the personalities.</p>
<p>These developments have estranged the black middle class. Hence their abstention in the recent municipal polls. But that they mostly decided not vote rather than switch allegiances, is an indication of their understanding of the distinction between the personal behaviour of individuals in leadership positions of the party and the noble principles at the historical foundation of the ANC.</p>
<p>This is an opportunity for organisational self-correction. But it is not going to be easy. The rot goes deep. Leadership of epic ethical proportions, absolutely unblemished, is required to salvage the ANC. </p>
<p>The jury is still out on whether the ANC veterans’ sigh of wisdom in calling for Zuma <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/zuma-brings-shame-to-sa-anc-veterans-20161103">to resign</a>, and the recent gesticulation by <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2016/12/19/mk-veterans-members-want-a-review-of-the-ancs-constitution/">veterans of its armed wing</a>, will salvage this desperate epoch of its history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mashupye Herbert Maserumule received funding from the National Research Foundation(NRF) for his post-graduate studies. He is affiliated with the South African Association of Public Administration and Management(SAAPAM) and is the Chief Editor of its scholarly publication, Journal of Public Administration.</span></em></p>After two decades of political dominance, the electoral performance of the ANC is at its lowest since it became the governing party of South Africa in 1994. But is the party really unraveling?Mashupye Herbert Maserumule, Professor of Public Affairs, Tshwane University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.