tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/job-security-2577/articlesJob security – The Conversation2024-03-26T12:48:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223642024-03-26T12:48:40Z2024-03-26T12:48:40ZNot having job flexibility or security can leave workers feeling depressed, anxious and hopeless<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581106/original/file-20240311-22-aqasrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C20%2C6934%2C4637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Warehouse employees frequently lack control over their own schedules.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/exhausted-warehouse-worker-royalty-free-image/1413866834">Andres Oliveira/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When employees don’t have control over their work schedules, it’s not just morale that suffers – mental health takes a hit too. That’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.3439">what my colleagues and I discovered</a> in a study recently published in the medical journal JAMA Network Open.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.bu.edu/sph/profile/monica-wang/">public health expert</a>, I know that the way our jobs are designed can affect our well-being. Research has shown that flexibility, security and autonomy in the workplace are strong <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190236557.013.15">determinants of health</a>.</p>
<p>To understand how powerful they are, my colleagues and I looked at the 2021 <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhis/about_nhis.htm">National Health Interview Survey</a>, a major data collection initiative run out of the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/index.htm">National Center for Health Statistics</a>. We analyzed responses from 18,144 working adults across the U.S., teasing out how job flexibility and security may be linked with mental health.</p>
<p>The respondents were asked how easily they could change their work schedule to do things important to them or their family, whether their work schedule changed on a regular basis, and how far in advance they usually knew their schedules. They also rated their perceived risk of losing their job in the next 12 months.</p>
<p>We found that workers who had more flexible work arrangements were less likely to report feelings of depression, hopelessness and anxiety. Similarly, those with greater job security were at lower risk of mental health challenges. We also found that higher job security was linked with fewer instances of missing work over the past year.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>The average full-time worker dedicates <a href="https://www.gettysburg.edu/news/stories?id=79db7b34-630c-4f49-ad32-4ab9ea48e72b">a third</a> of their lifetime waking hours to work. Given that fact, understanding how job design affects mental health is key to developing policies that bolster well-being.</p>
<p>It’s clear why employers should care: When workers aren’t feeling well mentally, they’re <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40258-022-00761-w">less productive</a> and more likely to <a href="http://doi.org/10.1097/00043764-200104000-00010">miss work</a>. Their <a href="https://www.betterup.com/blog/mental-health-impedes-creativity">creativity</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02678373.2017.1304463">collaboration</a> and ability to <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/mental-health-at-work#">meet job demands</a> also suffer, hurting the entire organization.</p>
<p>The impact of job-related stress extends beyond the workplace, affecting families, communities and health care systems. People grappling with work-related mental health challenges often require <a href="http://doi.org/10.1186/1471-244X-14-131">multiple forms of support</a>, such as access to counseling, medication and social services. Not addressing these needs comprehensively can cause <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.3535">serious long-term consequences</a>, including reduced quality of life and increased health care costs.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-022-01284-9">worsened mental health disparities</a> and that individuals in lower-wage positions, front-line workers and people in marginalized communities continue to face <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.14136">additional challenges</a>. In this context, understanding exactly how job and work design can affect people’s mental health is all the more important.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>My research team plans to examine how race and gender affect the links between job flexibility, job security and mental health.</p>
<p><a href="http://doi.org/10.1037/a0034016">Previous research</a> suggests that women and people of color experience <a href="http://doi.org/10.1037/a0034016">unique workplace stressors</a> that harm their mental well-being. For instance, women continue to face <a href="https://sgff-media.s3.amazonaws.com/sgff_r1eHetbDYb/Women+in+the+Workplace+2023_+Designed+Report.pdf">barriers to career advancement</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/business/gender-pay-gap-statistics/#">unequal pay</a> and a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-2025-x">higher burden</a> of unpaid care work.</p>
<p>Similarly, employees of color often experience <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/328394/one-four-black-workers-report-discrimination-work.aspx">discrimination</a>, <a href="https://hbr.org/2022/05/research-the-real-time-impact-of-microaggressions">microaggressions</a> and <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/104761/racial-equity-and-job-quality.pdf">limited opportunities for professional growth</a> at work, all of which can harm <a href="https://milkeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/racialequitybrief.pdf">mental health</a>. Understanding gender and racial differences will help researchers and organizations develop targeted interventions and policy recommendations.</p>
<p>Mental health challenges are far from rare: More than 50 million Americans, or nearly <a href="https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/mental-illness">1 in 5 adults</a>, live with mental illness. By creating workplaces that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/08901171241233398">prioritize employee well-being</a> – through flexible work arrangements, supportive policies and access to mental health resources – organizations can help build a healthier society. </p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Wang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The way jobs are structured affects employee mental health, an analysis of more than 18,000 workers shows.Monica Wang, Associate Professor of Public Health, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255092024-03-18T12:28:06Z2024-03-18T12:28:06ZAmid growth in AI writing tools, this course teaches future lawyers and other professionals to become better editors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581594/original/file-20240313-18-ljzu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C93%2C6852%2C4260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even the best paragraphs may have room for improvement.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/cyber-law-or-internet-law-concept-with-ai-robot-royalty-free-image/1350320510?phrase=law+students+writing+ai+&adppopup=true">PhonlamaiPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of Course:</h2>
<p>“Editing and Advocacy”</p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>In part, I wanted to improve the career prospects of the law students, business students and other aspiring professionals I teach. People who can consistently improve the sentences and paragraphs that come across their desk each day have the opportunity to improve the way ideas and messages are communicated. Who wouldn’t want to add someone like that to their company, government agency or nonprofit organization?</p>
<p>Mostly, though, I designed the course so that my students can experience the empowering magic that comes with being able to take a string of words — whether drafted by themselves or somebody else — and transform them into a revised version that is undeniably better than the original. </p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<p>Students edit emails. They edit contracts. They edit memos, articles, speeches, proposals, text messages, blog posts — pretty much anything that lawyers and other professionals compose. Sometimes they edit alone. Other times they edit as part of a team. But the goal is always the same: learn and practice a skill that is fundamental to becoming an excellent advocate.</p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>I first starting teaching “Editing and Advocacy” a few years before the launch of ChatGPT and other generative AI tools. But now that those tools have significantly reduced the cost of producing drafts, the course’s focus on revising drafts — for accuracy, for clarity, for persuasive power — has taken on a newfound relevance.</p>
<p>For instance, when asked how AI might affect what he and other members of the knowledge economy do, tech journalist <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2023/3/21/23649894/the-ai-revolution-could-be%2520-bigger-and-weirder-than-we-can-imagine.">Charlie Warzel suggested</a> that “the greatest skill that we can all have now is to be ‘editors.’” We may, he noted, start to spend an increasing amount of time correcting and refining AI-produced material.</p>
<p>Ilona Logvinova, associate general counsel and head of innovation for the legal department at consulting giant McKinsey, <a href="https://wsjcustomevents.com/lexisnexis2024">made a similar point</a>, telling attendees at a recent conference on the use of AI in law: “I really believe that we’re at a moment where we, as lawyers, can transition from being ‘drafters’ to being ‘editors.’”</p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>One of the most critical lessons is something I put front and center on the syllabus: “Good editors don’t just see the sentence that was written. They see the sentence that might have been written. They know how to spot words that shouldn’t be included and summon up ones that haven’t yet appeared. Their value comes not just from preventing mistakes but also from discovering new ways to improve a piece’s style, structure, and overall impact.”</p>
<p>The current generation of AI tools is really good at proofreading. But so far, I haven’t encountered any large language model that has the vision, empathy and deep understanding of both context and nuance — not to mention of personal voice —required of a truly exceptional editor.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman peers into a book while seated at her desk, which has both a desktop and a laptop computer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582048/original/file-20240314-21-w762u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Experts say editing will take on greater importance in the age of artificial intelligence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laurence Dutton via Getty Images</span></span>
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<p>That doesn’t mean that a technology with those capacities won’t eventually develop, nor that the technology we already have can’t provide enormously useful editing assistance. In fact, more and more of my assignments in “Editing and Advocacy” give students a chance to play around with ChatGPT-like tools. I have also created an entirely separate course called “Digital Lawyering: Advocacy in the Age of AI” that explores the possibilities – and pitfalls – of using artificial intelligence as a kind of co-counsel.</p>
<p>But as I often remind students in both classes, editing is as much about imagination, emotional intelligence and restraint as it is about syntax, semicolons and subject-and-verb agreement. A good way to become better at it is to cultivate the parts of you that are most human. </p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>Hoping to save my students some money — and wanting to make the materials of the course easily available online — I worked with the <a href="https://www.publishing.umich.edu/our-mission">publishing team</a> at the University of Michigan to create a set of open-access books that anyone with an internet connection can read for free. These include “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/hq37vr12w">Editing and Advocacy</a>,” “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/dv13zw31v">Notes on Nuance</a>,” “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/f1881p37d">Punctuation and Persuasion</a>” and “<a href="https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/monographs/8623j145m">Feedback Loops: How to Give and Receive High-Quality Feedback</a>.”</p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>Editing involves reliably making informed, value-creating decisions. You need to know what to add. You need to know what to delete. You need to know what to separate, combine and rearrange. Students in the course study, evaluate and regularly participate in those types of decisions. In the process, they develop an extremely important and highly transferable skill: good judgment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Barry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Learning how to produce polished prose can greatly enhance your value on the job.Patrick Barry, Clinical Assistant Professor and Director of Digital Academic Initiatives (University of Michigan Law School) | Visiting Lecturer (University of Chicago Law School) | Visiting Lecturer (UCLA School of Law), University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2057342023-06-22T12:31:18Z2023-06-22T12:31:18ZHow will AI affect workers? Tech waves of the past show how unpredictable the path can be<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531702/original/file-20230613-17-juejmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C122%2C4254%2C2720&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Personal computers started an information technology revolution. Will AI bring similarly dramatic changes? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/philadelphia-pa-irs-workers-check-through-a-pile-of-1040-news-photo/515361036?adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence has drawn attention not only to the astonishing capacity of algorithms to mimic humans but to the reality that these algorithms could displace many humans in their jobs. The economic and societal consequences could be nothing short of dramatic. </p>
<p>The route to this economic transformation is through the workplace. A <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html">widely circulated Goldman Sachs study</a> anticipates that about two-thirds of current occupations over the next decade could be affected and a quarter to a half of the work people do now could be taken over by an algorithm. Up to 300 million jobs worldwide could be affected. The consulting firm McKinsey <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier#introduction">released its own study</a> predicting an AI-powered boost of US$4.4 trillion to the global economy every year. </p>
<p>The implications of such gigantic numbers are sobering, but how reliable are these predictions?</p>
<p>I lead a research program called <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/digitalplanet/">Digital Planet</a> that studies the impact of digital technologies on lives and livelihoods around the world and how this impact changes over time. A look at how previous waves of such digital technologies as personal computers and the internet affected workers offers some insight into AI’s potential impact in the years to come. But if the history of the future of work is any guide, we should be prepared for some surprises. </p>
<h2>The IT revolution and the productivity paradox</h2>
<p>A key metric for tracking the consequences of technology on the economy is growth in <a href="https://www.bls.gov/k12/productivity-101/content/what-is-productivity/what-is-labor-productivity.htm">worker productivity</a> – defined as how much output of work an employee can generate per hour. This seemingly dry statistic matters to every working individual, because it ties directly to how much a worker can expect to earn for every hour of work. Said another way, higher productivity is expected to <a href="https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/worker-productivity-minimum-wage-increase">lead to higher wages</a>. </p>
<p>Generative AI products are capable of producing written, graphic and audio content or software programs with minimal human involvement. Professions such as advertising, entertainment and creative and analytical work could be among the first to feel the effects. Individuals in those fields may worry that companies will use <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/02/ai-taking-jobs/">generative AI to do jobs they once did</a>, but economists see great potential to boost productivity of the workforce as a whole. </p>
<p>The Goldman Sachs study predicts productivity will grow by 1.5% per year because of the adoption of generative AI alone, which would be <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2021/article/the-us-productivity-slowdown-the-economy-wide-and-industry-level-analysis.htm#:%7E:text=In%20the%20years%20since%202005,percent%20from%202010%20to%202018">nearly double the rate from 2010 and 2018</a>. McKinsey is even more aggressive, saying this technology and other forms of automation will usher in the “<a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier#introduction">next productivity frontier</a>,” pushing it as high as 3.3% a year by 2040.</p>
<p>That sort of productivity boost, which would approach rates of previous years, would be welcomed by both economists and, in theory, workers as well. </p>
<p>If we were to trace the 20th-century history of productivity growth in the U.S., it galloped along at <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2016/06/gordon.htm#:%7E:text=Measures%20and%20mismeasures%20of%20progress&text=The%20growth%20rate%20of%20labor,extends%20from%201970%20to%202014.">about 3%</a> annually from 1920 to 1970, lifting real wages and living standards. Interestingly, productivity growth slowed in the 1970s and 1980s, coinciding with the introduction of computers and early digital technologies. This “<a href="https://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/productivity-paradox/index.html">productivity paradox</a>” was famously captured in a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-solow-productivity-paradox-what-do-computers-do-to-productivity/">comment from MIT economist Bob Solow</a>: You can see the computer age everywhere <a href="http://ccs.mit.edu/papers/CCSWP130/ccswp130.html">but in the productivity statistics</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="i96wK" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/i96wK/10/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Digital technology skeptics blamed “unproductive” time spent on social media or shopping and argued that earlier transformations, such as the introductions of electricity or the internal combustion engine, had a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/books/review/the-powers-that-were.html">bigger role in fundamentally altering the nature of work</a>. Techno-optimists disagreed; they argued that new digital technologies <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/The-Second-Machine-Age/">needed time to translate</a> into productivity growth, because other complementary changes would need to evolve in parallel. Yet others <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-solow-productivity-paradox-what-do-computers-do-to-productivity/">worried that productivity measures were not adequate</a> in capturing the value of computers.</p>
<p>For a while, it seemed that the optimists would be vindicated. In the second half of the 1990s, around the time the World Wide Web emerged, productivity growth in the U.S. <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/webfeatures_viewpoints_l-t_growth_lessons/">doubled</a>, from 1.5% per year in the first half of that decade to 3% in the second. Again, there were disagreements about what was really going on, further muddying the waters as to whether the paradox had been resolved. Some <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/webfeatures_viewpoints_l-t_growth_lessons/">argued</a> that, indeed, the investments in digital technologies were finally paying off, while an <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/whats-right-with-the-us-economy">alternative view</a> was that managerial and technological innovations in a few key industries were the main drivers. </p>
<p>Regardless of the explanation, just as mysteriously as it began, that late 1990s surge was short-lived. So despite massive corporate investment in computers and the internet – changes that transformed the workplace – how much the economy and workers’ wages benefited from technology remained uncertain.</p>
<h2>Early 2000s: New slump, new hype, new hopes</h2>
<p>While the start of the 21st century coincided with the <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/history/moments/2000-dot-com-bubble.html">bursting of the so-called dot-com bubble</a>, the year 2007 was marked by the arrival of another technology revolution: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7qPAY9JqE4">the Apple iPhone</a>, which consumers bought by the millions and which companies deployed in countless ways. Yet labor productivity growth started stalling again in the mid-2000s, <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30267">ticking up briefly in 2009</a> during the Great Recession, only to return to a slump from 2010 to 2019. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person looking at video of dog at desk in office" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531420/original/file-20230612-63747-rjscts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Smartphones have led to millions of apps and consumer services but have also kept many workers more closely tethered to their workplaces.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/smart-phone-workplace?assettype=image&agreements=&family=editorial&locations=61907&page=5&phrase=smart%20phone%20workplace&sort=newest">San Francisco Chronicle/Hearst Newspapers via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Throughout this new slump, techno-optimists were anticipating new winds of change. AI and automation were becoming all the rage and were expected to transform work and worker productivity. Beyond traditional industrial automation, drones and advanced robots, capital and talent were pouring into many would-be <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/disruptive-technologies">game-changing technologies</a>, including autonomous vehicles, automated checkouts in grocery stores and even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zume-pizza-robot-expansion-2017-6">pizza-making robots</a>. AI and automation were projected to push productivity growth <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/regions-in-focus/solving-the-productivity-puzzle">above 2%</a> annually in a decade, up from the 2010-2014 lows of <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/ai-automation-and-the-future-of-work-ten-things-to-solve-for">0.4%</a>. </p>
<p>But before we could get there and gauge how these new technologies would ripple through the workplace, a new surprise hit: the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<h2>The pandemic productivity push – then bust</h2>
<p>Devastating as the pandemic was, worker productivity <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_824092.pdf">surged after it began in 2020</a>; output per hour worked globally hit 4.9%, the highest recorded since data has been available. </p>
<p>Much of this steep rise was facilitated by technology: larger knowledge-intensive companies – inherently the more productive ones – switched to remote work, <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/54337c24-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/54337c24-en">maintaining continuity</a> through digital technologies such as videoconferencing and communications technologies such as Slack, and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/remote-workers-reclaimed-60-million-hours-of-commuting-time.html">saving on commuting time and focusing on well-being</a>.</p>
<p>While it was clear digital technologies helped boost productivity of knowledge workers, there was an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d935b29f631f1ae36e964d23881f77bd">accelerated shift to greater automation</a> in many other sectors, as workers had to remain home for their own safety and comply with lockdowns. Companies in industries ranging from meat processing to operations in restaurants, retail and hospitality <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-05-04/covid-automation-robots-trends-effects-on-workers">invested in automation</a>, such as robots and automated order-processing and customer service, which helped boost their productivity. </p>
<p>But then there was yet another turn in the journey along the technology landscape. </p>
<p>The 2020-2021 surge in investments in the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/14/investing/tech-stocks-faangs/index.html">tech sector collapsed</a>, as did the hype about autonomous vehicles and pizza-making robots. Other frothy promises, such as the <a href="https://hbr.org/2022/04/how-the-metaverse-could-change-work">metaverse’s revolutionizing remote work or training</a>, also seemed to fade into the background. </p>
<p>In parallel, with little warning, “generative AI” <a href="https://www.marketing-interactive.com/how-chatgpt-exploded-on-to-the-scene-with-so-little-marketing-spend">burst onto the scene</a>, with an even more direct potential to enhance productivity while affecting jobs – at massive scale. The hype cycle around new technology restarted. </p>
<h2>Looking ahead: Social factors on technology’s arc</h2>
<p>Given the number of plot twists thus far, what might we expect from here on out? Here are four issues for consideration. </p>
<p>First, the future of work is about more than just raw numbers of workers, the technical tools they use or the work they do; one should consider how AI affects factors such as workplace diversity and social inequities, which in turn have a profound impact on economic opportunity and workplace culture.</p>
<p>For example, while the broad shift toward remote work <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/30/big-tech-diversity-recruiting-silicon-valley/">could help</a> promote diversity with more flexible hiring, I see the increasing use of AI as likely to have the opposite effect. Black and Hispanic workers are <a href="https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2023-06">overrepresented</a> in the 30 occupations with the highest exposure to automation and <a href="https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2023-06">underrepresented</a> in the 30 occupations with the lowest exposure. While AI might help workers get more done in less time, and this increased productivity could increase wages of those employed, it could lead to a severe loss of wages for those whose jobs are displaced. A 2021 paper found that <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/01/15/Pandemics-and-Automation-Will-the-Lost-Jobs-Come-Back-50000">wage inequality tended to increase the most</a> in countries in which companies already relied a lot on robots and that were quick to adopt the latest robotic technologies. </p>
<p>Second, as the post-COVID-19 workplace seeks a balance between in-person and remote working, the effects on productivity – and opinions on the subject – will remain uncertain and fluid. A <a href="https://econofact.org/is-remote-work-working-out">2022 study</a> showed improved efficiencies for remote work as companies and employees grew more comfortable with work-from-home arrangements, but according to a separate 2023 study, managers and employees <a href="https://hbr.org/2023/01/research-where-managers-and-employees-disagree-about-remote-work">disagree</a> about the impact: The former believe that remote working reduces productivity, while employees believe the opposite.</p>
<p>Third, society’s reaction to the spread of generative AI could greatly affect its course and ultimate impact. Analyses suggest that generative AI can boost worker productivity on specific jobs – for example, one 2023 study found the staggered introduction of a generative AI-based conversational assistant <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161">increased productivity of customer service personnel by 14%</a>. Yet there are already <a href="https://www.safe.ai/statement-on-ai-risk">growing calls</a> to consider generative AI’s most severe risks and to take them seriously. On top of that, recognition of the astronomical <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/05/chatgpt-hidden-cost-gpu-compute/">computing</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-generative-ai-bad-for-the-environment-a-computer-scientist-explains-the-carbon-footprint-of-chatgpt-and-its-cousins-204096">environmental costs</a> of generative AI could limit its development and use. </p>
<p>Finally, given how wrong economists and other experts have been in the past, it is safe to say that many of today’s predictions about AI technology’s impact on work and worker productivity will prove to be wrong as well. Numbers such as 300 million jobs affected or $4.4 trillion annual boosts to the global economy are eye-catching, yet I think people tend to give them greater credibility than warranted.</p>
<p>Also, “jobs affected” does not mean jobs lost; it could mean jobs augmented or even a transition to new jobs. It is best to use the analyses, such as Goldman’s or McKinsey’s, to spark our imaginations about the plausible scenarios about the future of work and of workers. It’s better, in my view, to then proactively brainstorm the many factors that could affect which one actually comes to pass, look for early warning signs and prepare accordingly.</p>
<p>The history of the future of work has been full of surprises; don’t be shocked if tomorrow’s technologies are equally confounding.</p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528404/original/file-20230525-19537-m9iltu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528404/original/file-20230525-19537-m9iltu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528404/original/file-20230525-19537-m9iltu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528404/original/file-20230525-19537-m9iltu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528404/original/file-20230525-19537-m9iltu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528404/original/file-20230525-19537-m9iltu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528404/original/file-20230525-19537-m9iltu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Learn what you need to know about artificial intelligence by <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=ai&source=inline-promo">signing up for our newsletter series of four emails</a> delivered over the course of a week. You can read all our stories on generative AI at <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/generative-ai-133426">TheConversation.com</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205734/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bhaskar Chakravorti founded and directs Fletcher's Institute for Business in the Global Context and its Digital Planet research program that has received funding from Mastercard, Microsoft, the Gates Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation and Omidyar Network. </span></em></p>New digital technologies have been a constant for workers over the past few decades, with a mixed record on the economy and individuals’ daily lives. AI’s effect will likely be just as unpredictable.Bhaskar Chakravorti, Dean of Global Business, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051222023-05-11T02:44:37Z2023-05-11T02:44:37ZTo get to net zero, policymakers need to listen to communities. Here’s what they can learn from places like Geelong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525268/original/file-20230510-25-phza6d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3065%2C2028&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sally Fisher</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the federal government was <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-net-zero-authority">announcing</a> its flagship Net Zero Authority, in the Victorian city of Geelong hundreds of people – including community groups, unions, faith organisations and business representatives – were preparing an announcement of their own this week. </p>
<p>Over the past six months Geelong has hosted one of Australia’s largest ever local “listening campaigns” relating to the climate transition. It’s part of the University of Sydney’s <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/our-research/real-deal.html">Real Deal for Australia project</a>. The aim is to give local communities a real say in the changes they’re facing.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/sydney-policy-lab/our-research/geelong_report.pdf">report</a> on actions to be taken, based on community feedback, was launched on May 10. </p>
<p>So what can this policymaking experiment teach the Net Zero Authority about how to plan Australia’s climate transition?</p>
<p>One clear message is that housing and its role in this transition is an overwhelming concern. Housing quality and security, cost of living and climate change are all linked by the impacts of extreme weather, energy costs and emissions, and unequal access to solar power. Job security is similarly entwined with climate policy. </p>
<p>But if climate is presented as a separate issue disconnected from these other sources of stress in daily life, people withdraw and see action on climate as too much to bear.</p>
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<h2>Transition works best as a cooperative process</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of oil refinery looking across the city of Geelong" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The climate transition to clean energy is just the latest transition for Geelong.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/83983538@N07/7913248230">HxChester/Flickr</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The idea of transition is not new to Geelong. The Pyramid Building Society collapse in 1990 and the closures of the Ford factory and Alcoa aluminium smelter in the 2010s brought about big changes. For many, those transitions were done “to” Geelong not “with” Geelong. </p>
<p>Climate change is bringing another transition. How can we ensure people are not left behind this time? </p>
<p><a href="https://thepolicymaker.jmi.org.au/who-will-lead-us-to-policy-salvation/">Community-led research</a> is an approach that has gained currency in recent decades. The term covers a wide range of methods, all based on the principle that communities should be at the centre of any research or policy process that is about them. As an <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06855-7">editorial</a> in the journal Nature has said: </p>
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<p>Knowledge generated in partnership with the public and policymakers is more likely to be useful to society.</p>
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<p>Rather than treating people as the subjects of policy, this approach involves communities in designing policy. It asks everyday people to guide the research process. They shape the questions asked, the methods of engagement, the analysis of data and the creation of research and policy outcomes.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-know-our-community-better-than-they-do-why-local-knowledge-is-key-to-disaster-recovery-in-gippsland-158703">'We know our community better than they do': why local knowledge is key to disaster recovery in Gippsland</a>
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<h2>How does the Real Deal approach work?</h2>
<p>The Sydney Policy Lab began the <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/our-research/real-deal.html">Real Deal for Australia project</a> in 2019, following a period of divisive, polarised climate politics in Australia. </p>
<p>It aims to test whether community-driven policy solutions can provide an alternative strategy amid the uncertainties of the climate crisis. Real Deal projects have also begun in Western Sydney and the Queensland port city of Gladstone.</p>
<p>In the Real Deal approach, “relationships must precede action”. In practice, this process has involved building a network of national climate groups, unions and community organisations. Together, they have produced a distinctive approach to community-led research, outlined in a 2020 <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/sydney-policy-lab/a-real-deal-2020.pdf">Real Deal Report</a>. </p>
<p>Between September 2022 and March 2023, the Real Deal for Geelong team conducted 38 “table talks”. These small-group conversations were held in church halls, community centres, union meeting rooms and even a local pub. Achieving this level of participation wasn’t easy.</p>
<p>It makes time for communities to set the agenda and shape solutions that respond to their needs. In a world focused on quick outcomes, some Geelong leaders were sceptical about a drawn-out listening process. Engagement was complicated by post-lockdown exhaustion and interrupted by the Victorian state election and school holidays. </p>
<p>Despite the challenges, the power of this research involving 238 residents lay in how it was done. Local community members, supported by a team of researchers, led the process. It was unlike traditional “consultation” where so-called experts present pre-packaged policy solutions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Small discussion groups of people sitting at tables" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Participants in one of 38 ‘table talks’ held in Geelong, February 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mik Aidt</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>So what are the findings from Geelong?</h2>
<p>The listening process found the path to net zero requires more than just creating new industries and new jobs. In Geelong, the biggest issue was anxiety about housing – 92% of participants mentioned it. </p>
<p>Housing was closely connected to climate. Poor housing stock, especially rental homes, was unable to handle increasingly erratic weather. There were stories of flooded homes after extreme weather events. The issue of mould alone was raised in 20% of the table talks. A participant from a local community service said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In our organisation we have reports of substandard rental properties that experience leaks during extreme weather events and sewage coming up through plumbing as stormwater systems fail in older areas.</p>
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<p>Housing is linked to both cost of living and climate change. For instance, people in rental homes couldn’t access cheaper, low-emissions electricity through rooftop solar systems. </p>
<p>Participants talked about a two-tier system: the wealthy could protect themselves with better homes, retrofitting and solar; the less well-off could not (as Tuesday’s federal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/09/australia-federal-budget-2023-climate-environment-energy-saving-measures-households-double-glazing-solar-panels-hydrogen">budget recognised</a>).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budgets-energy-bill-relief-and-home-retrofit-funding-is-a-good-start-but-dwarfed-by-the-scale-of-the-task-205380">Budget's energy bill relief and home retrofit funding is a good start, but dwarfed by the scale of the task</a>
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<p>The listening process also unearthed the importance of good housing as a source of security in a time of uncertainty. As the climate changes, insecure, expensive, inaccessible, poor-quality housing adds to people’s fear and instability. </p>
<p>In addition to housing, jobs, cost of living and quality care services were seen as vital in the transition to net zero. </p>
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<h2>How policy is made matters</h2>
<p>The findings offer a very useful lesson for the Net Zero Authority. When planning for climate transition was connected to the other daily pressures people face, participants felt more certain of their agency. They became more convinced transformative change was possible.</p>
<p>As Australia steps up its investment in the transition, Geelong’s experience shows it matters how policy is made. When communities have a role in shaping the course of change, climate action can reduce the stresses in their lives instead of adding to them. </p>
<p>Geelong has shown that local and regional community-led approaches can be a powerful way to produce more holistic, just and popular transition policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Tattersall receives funding from Lord Mayors Charitable Foundation.</span></em></p>When people are involved in planning for climate transition that takes account of their other daily concerns, such as housing and jobs, they become more positive about transformative change.Amanda Tattersall, Research Lead Sydney Policy Lab, Postdoctoral Fellow Geography, Host of ChangeMakers Podcast, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2005162023-04-19T11:22:04Z2023-04-19T11:22:04ZOverconfidence dictates who gets ‘top jobs’ and research shows men benefit more than women<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521595/original/file-20230418-18-5n1164.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=89%2C71%2C5860%2C3273&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rear-view-successful-company-ceo-celebrating-1361250626">fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There has been a steady stream of popular literature in recent years telling women to “<a href="https://leanin.org/book">lean in</a>”, be more confident, and not worry about “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/h0086006">imposter syndrome</a>”. </p>
<p>Men, on the other hand, are often seen to be <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/441931/how-confidence-works-by-robertson-ian/9781787633728">overconfident compared to women</a>. Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537122001737">recent research</a> shows they are 19% more likely to self-assess their abilities higher than they actually are – and this difference can actually affect career outcomes for men and women. </p>
<p>We already know that women are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537122001737#bib0003">less likely to make partner at law firms</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537122001737#bib0008">reach corporate leadership positions</a>. But roles such as chief executive, production manager, senior police officer, lawyer and doctor tend to be well paid and secure. The over-representation of men in such jobs may be an important driver of inequalities in the labour market such as the gender pay gap. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537122001737">Our research</a> shows that 24% of men versus 16% of women are in such “top jobs” by the age of 42. It also indicates that factors leading to this trend actually start showing up in adolescence. In fact, we believe ours is one of the first studies to link overconfidence captured in adolescence to real job market outcomes in mid-career. </p>
<p>We used data on approximately 3,600 people born in Great Britain who are taking part in the <a href="https://cls.ucl.ac.uk/cls-studies/1970-british-cohort-study/">1970 British Cohort Study</a>. This means we can follow them from birth into the labour market and have access to information about their family background, the circumstances in which they grew up, and the life choices they make.</p>
<p>We constructed a measure of overconfidence using their test scores on a range of cognitive assessments taken at ages five, ten and 16. We compared this to data they provided rating their own ability in several domains. We found that overconfident people were more likely, on average, to be in top jobs at the age of 42 compared to similar adults who didn’t overrate their talents according to our overconfidence scale. </p>
<p>When it comes to explaining the gender gap in top jobs, our measure of overconfidence represented up to 11% of the significant 8 percentage point gender gap in top jobs at age 42 (with men taking more of these top jobs). These results highlight the importance of overconfidence for predicting such achievements, but they also provide some insight into the factors that affect career-related confidence levels. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/toxic-workplaces-are-feeding-the-impostor-phenomenon-heres-why-103892">Toxic workplaces are feeding the impostor phenomenon – here's why</a>
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<h2>Confidence factors: university, industry and children</h2>
<p>Once we accounted for university attendance and subject, our measure of overconfidence explained 6% of the gender gap in top jobs. This shows the importance of success at school and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecca.12437">choice of university subject</a> and institution in paving the way to a top job by mid-career.</p>
<p>In fact, university participation and subject choice matter quite a lot, according to our findings. The gender gap in top jobs is considerably larger among graduates (15 percentage points) compared to non-graduates (6.5 percentage points), while the role of overconfidence mattered more for those who had attended university. </p>
<p>For example, male graduates were 58% more likely than female graduates to be in a top job in the field of science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM), and had 34% greater odds of being in a senior role in law, economics and management (LEM). Interestingly, while overconfidence explained 12% of the gender gap in top LEM roles, it did not matter for top jobs in STEM. This may be down to the more technical nature of these jobs compared to those in LEM.</p>
<p>Apart from industry, other factors also seem to contribute to career gender gaps. Unsurprisingly, having children counts. With many adults having families with children still living at home by middle age, working mothers were 27% less likely than working fathers to be in a top job by mid-career. However, overconfidence did not explain any of this gender gap. This suggests that women are simply more likely than men to change their working patterns once they start a family.</p>
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<img alt="Woman doing paperwork in modern office, co-workers in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512714/original/file-20230228-16-1ncq6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512714/original/file-20230228-16-1ncq6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512714/original/file-20230228-16-1ncq6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512714/original/file-20230228-16-1ncq6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512714/original/file-20230228-16-1ncq6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512714/original/file-20230228-16-1ncq6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512714/original/file-20230228-16-1ncq6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Businesses can help build employee confidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/concentrated-african-american-woman-doing-paperwork-1935860131">Kateryna Onyshchuk/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>How employers can help</h2>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/137/3/1345/6513425">Research</a> highlights how men are more likely to assess their abilities favourably and communicate this to others. And since overconfident people may put themselves forward more often and sooner for promotions, this exacerbates the gender gap in top jobs. </p>
<p>So, our findings suggest that employers should rethink how they recruit and promote people. Employers could give more regular performance-based feedback and encourage women to apply for promotions sooner than they might choose to on their own, for example. This is especially relevant for LEM jobs where we found that overconfidence explained the largest portion of the gender gap. </p>
<p>And since overconfidence loses its importance among those who have children, lack of childcare and flexibility in the workplace clearly remains a substantial barrier to career progression for women.</p>
<p>Requiring women to “lean in” or engage in confidence-building interventions is not the solution. Focusing on <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/02/stop-telling-women-they-have-imposter-syndrome">imposter syndrome</a> or women being underconfident puts the onus on them to change. Instead, we all need to find ways to change the system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200516/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:nikki.shure@ucl.ac.uk">nikki.shure@ucl.ac.uk</a> receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ES/T013850/1).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Adamecz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why companies should be worried about diversity in ‘top jobs’ and what they can do to make this happen.Nikki Shure, Associate Professor in Economics, UCLAnna Adamecz, Research Associate in Economics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1867932022-07-27T15:54:07Z2022-07-27T15:54:07ZWhy a universal job guarantee beats the basic income pipe dream<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475693/original/file-20220722-18-jhu2db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4143%2C2572&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In theory, a universal job guarantee could help stabilize inflation by providing stable, full-time employment, addressing unemployment, enhancing economic productivity and reinforcing price stability.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220609/dq220609a-eng.htm">current cost-of-living crisis</a> resulting in dramatic inflation, higher interest rates and a looming recession, people have been searching for solutions to the economic crisis. A universal job guarantee may just be the answer we’re looking for, especially since <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8975848/canada-economy-jobs-june/">Canada lost 43,000 jobs in June</a>.</p>
<p>While most people are familiar with the idea of a <a href="https://basicincome.stanford.edu/about/what-is-ubi/">universal basic income</a> — the notion of giving every citizen a basic income, irrespective of their income level or need — few are familiar with the idea of a universal job guarantee.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-guaranteed-basic-income-could-end-poverty-so-why-isnt-it-happening-182638">A guaranteed basic income could end poverty, so why isn’t it happening?</a>
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<p>Instead of a guaranteed fixed income, a universal job guarantee policy provides jobs — and wages — to people who aren’t able to find work on their own. In theory, a universal job guarantee could help stabilize inflation by providing stable, full-time employment, addressing unemployment, enhancing economic productivity and reinforcing price stability.</p>
<p>Job guarantee programs are crucial for a number of reasons. <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/full-employment/the-federal-job-guarantee-a-policy-to-achieve-permanent-full-employment">They keep people in the labour force, alleviate poverty, improve health and well-being, add meaning to people’s lives and help the most vulnerable</a>. They also provide crucial non-monetary benefits that have historically been associated with universal basic income, including improvements to “<a href="https://www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/publications/RP-2122-001-S--distributional-fiscal-analysis-national-guaranteed-basic-income--analyse-financiere-distributive-un-revenu-base-garanti-echelle-nationale">health, education, social cohesion and productivity</a>.”</p>
<h2>Economic stabilizer</h2>
<p>There are a few unique barriers that undermine universal basic income and its ability to be implemented. As we have seen with government support programs related to COVID-19, government stimulus in the form of direct cash <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chrystia-freeland-inflation-1.6501750">can cause inflation</a>. These programs <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-business-subsidies-column-don-pittis-1.6129604">reduce the supply of lower skilled employees in the job market</a>, as some people invariably decide to stay at home, rather than work. </p>
<p>Like the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/benefits/apply-for-cerb-with-cra.html">Canada Emergency Response Benefit</a>, universal basic income might take away the incentive to work for some, resulting in a labour market bereft of workers. This would result in a vicious cycle: employers would raise wages to attract those willing to work, which would increase inflation and cost of living, causing businesses, in turn, to raise costs to be able to afford higher salaries for their workers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A 'Now Hiring' sign hanging in the window of a building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475690/original/file-20220722-14-mvzc8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475690/original/file-20220722-14-mvzc8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475690/original/file-20220722-14-mvzc8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475690/original/file-20220722-14-mvzc8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475690/original/file-20220722-14-mvzc8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475690/original/file-20220722-14-mvzc8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475690/original/file-20220722-14-mvzc8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Government stimulus programs can reduce the supply of lower skilled employees in the job market, as some people invariably decide to stay at home, rather than work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/07/05/high-interest-rates-will-trigger-a-recession-just-look-at-history-for-evidence-new-study-argues.html">The effects of cash stimulus without controls can be far reaching</a>. To take the resulting steam out of the economy, policy-makers often resort to blunt counter measures like increasing interest rates, which can lead to a recession.</p>
<p>In contrast, a universal job guarantee would generate revenue for the government through taxable income, thereby reducing the cost of the program while simultaneously enhancing other sectors of the economy, such as the environment or infrastructure. It would ensure that people are able to earn money and, therefore, be able to spend money.</p>
<h2>More politically feasible</h2>
<p>Part of the reason why universal basic income hasn’t been successful in Canada is because it <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada-how-basic-income-works-1.6179760">hasn’t been championed by any mainstream Canadian political party</a>. A program like that would require either the Liberal or the Conservative Party of Canada to make universal basic income part of their electoral platform.</p>
<p>On the contrary, a universal job guarantee would be more appealing to voters because it addresses labour shortages while guaranteeing minimum wage. Considering there are already programs that help people find fulfilling jobs, it isn’t too much of a stretch to imagine a scaled-up version run by the federal government.</p>
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<img alt="A man attending a virtual job interview using a laptop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475689/original/file-20220722-15-zpkskz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475689/original/file-20220722-15-zpkskz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475689/original/file-20220722-15-zpkskz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475689/original/file-20220722-15-zpkskz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475689/original/file-20220722-15-zpkskz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475689/original/file-20220722-15-zpkskz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475689/original/file-20220722-15-zpkskz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Job programs keep people in the labour force, alleviate poverty, improve health and well-being, add meaning to people’s lives and help the most vulnerable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Consider <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/services/funding/canada-summer-jobs.html">Canada’s summer student work programs, where the Canadian government subsidizes businesses to hire students</a>, or other employment programs, such as <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/about-apropos/people-personnes/people-personnes-eng.html">building infrastructure to last generations</a> or <a href="https://treecanada.ca/">tree planting</a>. A universal job guarantee would build on these established programs and be more likely to garner political support based on precedent.</p>
<h2>A path toward a universal job guarantee</h2>
<p>People want better jobs and a consistent source of income. Economies with full employment <a href="https://doi.org/10.14746/sr.2019.3.2.04">operate at their full potential with higher productivity and stability</a> than those with high unemployment. </p>
<p>When I worked as a senior policy advisor for the government of Canada, the most effective bureaucrats that were able to implement policy were aware of politics and ideology and how governments of the day are driven by them and the likelihood of votes. They knew how to frame good policy within a party’s platform to attract voters.</p>
<p>Other countries are already taking the plunge. In October 2020, Austria announced they were running <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/austria-worlds-first-universal-jobs-guarantee-experiment-2020-11">the world’s first universal jobs guarantee experiment</a>. Canada would do well to keep an eye on the pilot program and see how it unfolds.</p>
<p>However, I caution us to be realistic: we cannot throw out fantastical ideas of universality of a job guarantee or a universal basic income without understanding how governments, democracy and politics inform policy making. For a country as large as Canada, this kind of transformative change needs to take place in steps. </p>
<p>While it remains to be seen whether a sensible and practically implementable universal job guarantee program can be implemented in Canada, building on existing programs that have already proven to work is a good place to start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186793/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Tsai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Instead of a guaranteed fixed income, a universal job guarantee policy provides jobs — and wages — to people who aren’t able to find work on their own.Daniel Tsai, Lecturer in Business and Law, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1863032022-07-07T19:52:22Z2022-07-07T19:52:22ZFor many NZ scholars, the old career paths are broken. Our survey shows the reality for this new ‘academic precariat’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472895/original/file-20220706-24-4ioit1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5391%2C3597&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As in many Western countries, New Zealand’s universities have become increasingly reliant on casual and temporary employees to run classes and undertake research. The situation is becoming critical, both for young academics themselves and for the country in general. </p>
<p>The problem has been recognised in <a href="https://www.oecd.org/publications/reducing-the-precarity-of-academic-research-careers-0f8bd468-en.htm">a recent OECD report</a> as affecting the well-being of individual researchers and undermining national capacity to undertake vital research “necessary to address urgent societal challenges”.</p>
<p>The New Zealand government has also recognised the issue, acknowledging recently in its <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/have-your-say/future-pathways/">Te Ara Paerangi – Future Pathways</a> green paper that “early career researchers are particularly vulnerable to career uncertainty and precarity”. Submissions on this and related issues are now being reviewed.</p>
<p>But focusing only on early career researchers (ECRs) creates a false separation between teaching and research, given our Education and Training Act stipulates the former should be informed by the latter. </p>
<p>In turn, this implies the system is comfortable with students being taught by workers on precarious, short-term contracts, with little professional development or hope of career progression.</p>
<p>Our report, <a href="https://auckland.figshare.com/articles/report/Elephant_In_The_Room_Precarious_Work_In_New_Zealand_Universities/19243626">Elephant in the Room: Precarious Work in New Zealand Universities</a>, is based on a survey of 760 academics on fixed-term or casual contracts (including both postgraduate students and those with PhDs) across New Zealand’s eight universities. It shows the majority are stitching together a mix of short-term research and teaching contracts in an attempt to make ends meet. </p>
<p>Rather than being called “early career researchers”, we argue the term “academic precariat” better reflects the reality of a highly skilled workforce defined by insecure, short-term contracts, coupled with a sense of disposability and marginalisation. </p>
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<h2>A two-tier system emerges</h2>
<p>The traditional (but never formalised) ECR model is based on two years spent on a single fixed-term, postdoctoral research position, before a move to a permanent lecturer post.</p>
<p>Due to underfunding and the increasing corporatisation of university management structures, however, both postdoctoral and permanent lecturer posts are increasingly rare in New Zealand, particularly outside the “STEM” subjects (science, technology, engineering and mathematics). </p>
<p>The introduction of the Performance-Based Research Fund (<a href="https://www.tec.govt.nz/funding/funding-and-performance/funding/fund-finder/performance-based-research-fund/">PBRF</a>) in 2003, which provides 20% of funding for universities based on assessments of individual staff members research performance, has also contributed to an increase in the use of precarious contracts. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-the-black-hole-of-global-university-rankings-rediscovering-the-true-value-of-knowledge-and-ideas-140236">Beyond the black hole of global university rankings: rediscovering the true value of knowledge and ideas</a>
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<p>This is because casual or short-term contractors reduce the teaching burden on PBRF-assessed staff, so the latter can focus on their research outputs. This has seen the emergence of a two-tier system where permanent academic staff effectively have their careers sustained by an army of casualised academic workers.</p>
<p>Rather than this being a short-term hardship, the two-tiered system has translated into academics spending years – sometimes entire careers – cycling through contracts that leave them with no security and little autonomy or professional development. </p>
<p>At the same time, they are highly vulnerable to changes in student demand or funding from research grants.</p>
<h2>Lack of professional development</h2>
<p>Our survey results show a majority of participants (62%) had been employed on precarious contracts (casual or fixed-term) for more than two years, with nearly a third (28.9%) for more than five years. </p>
<p>A total of 60% also reported their contracts were the most precarious types: either casual, with no guarantee of ongoing work (25%), or a fixed-term of less than six months (35%). Less than a quarter (22%) had contracts lasting 12 months or more. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-has-the-joy-of-working-in-australian-universities-gone-184251">Where has the joy of working in Australian universities gone?</a>
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<p>This means they must take on multiple contracts to get by, with nearly half (47.8%) taking on three or more employment agreements in the past 12 months.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, with multiple short-term contracts being the norm, nearly half (44.9%) of all survey participants said they had no access to any form of professional development in their roles. </p>
<p>Only 26.3% of participants had access to performance reviews, 21.4% to peer reviews or mentoring, and just 12.5% to formal role-specific upskilling.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472896/original/file-20220706-22-f2ekye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472896/original/file-20220706-22-f2ekye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472896/original/file-20220706-22-f2ekye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472896/original/file-20220706-22-f2ekye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472896/original/file-20220706-22-f2ekye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472896/original/file-20220706-22-f2ekye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472896/original/file-20220706-22-f2ekye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many early career academics work multiple jobs with few professional development opportunities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<h2>Precarious and insecure</h2>
<p>We also found some evidence this system reinforces structural racism, echoing <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339802428_The_Pakaru_'Pipeline'_Maori_and_Pasifika_Pathways_within_the_Academy">other research</a> arguing that academic pathways for Māori and Pasifika aren’t working. </p>
<p>In our survey, over three-quarters of both Māori (77.4%) and Pasifika (76.9%) participants were currently enrolled students (compared to 51.9% of the overall sample), taking teaching or research contracts to supplement their studies. </p>
<p>The majority of those students (47.6% of Māori and 57.7% of Pasifika) were enrolled in non-PhD courses (compared with just 25.8% of Pākehā). PhD study is the recognised path into academia, and the need to take on multiple precarious contracts while studying is impeding that path for Māori and Pasifika students.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/maori-and-pasifika-scholars-remain-severely-under-represented-in-new-zealand-universities-122330">Māori and Pasifika scholars remain severely under-represented in New Zealand universities</a>
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<p>Even greater numbers of international students reported being employed on casual or fixed-term contracts of less than six months than the general survey participants (67% compared to 60%). </p>
<p>At the same time, over half (56.7%) of international students expressed a lack of confidence they would have sufficient ongoing academic work in the next 12 months, and relied on personal savings (63.8%) and accepting extra work even when it risked jeopardising the completion of their degrees (60.9%).</p>
<p>At the same time, one third of survey participants (33.7%) had personally experienced discrimination, bullying or harassment, or otherwise felt unsafe in their workplace. Women (36.3%), people aged over 50 (46.5%), Māori (42.9%), Pasifika (50%), “other” ethnicities (47.6%), and people who were deaf or disabled (47.3%) were over-represented in this cohort.</p>
<h2>A broken path</h2>
<p>The survey also enquired into health and well-being in the context of a pandemic and the additional workloads involved in the move to online learning, combined with universities signalling cutbacks and redundancies due to the loss of international student revenue. </p>
<p>Participants were asked to rate their current stress levels out of ten, with the mean being 6.94. Some 43% of participants reported high to very high stress levels (8-10). Most troublingly, 30% disclosed a mental illness. These participants reported one of the highest mean stress levels (7.39) of any subgroup. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-government-and-universities-can-do-about-the-crisis-of-insecure-academic-work-183345">Here's what the government and universities can do about the crisis of insecure academic work</a>
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<p>Feelings of isolation and lack of support from managers were widespread, as over a quarter (27.6%) of staff with a mental illness suggested they had no understanding at all of who to approach for support.</p>
<p>Overall, our report provides compelling evidence that the traditional career path of early career researchers is now largely broken. This is causing significant harm to those who attempt to take it, while reinforcing existing inequities. </p>
<p>Ultimately, if allowed to continue, this reality will severely compromise the country’s future capacity to keep and grow the best researchers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leon Salter is Spokesperson for Tertiary Education Action Group Aotearoa (TEAGA) and Academic Delegate for the Massey University branch of the Tertiary Education Union (TEU).</span></em></p>Casual or short-term contracts, a lack of professional development, little hope of career progression: a survey of academic working conditions sounds a warning.Leon Salter, Postdoctoral Fellow, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1808842022-06-15T03:30:05Z2022-06-15T03:30:05Z‘I couldn’t see a future’: what ex-automotive workers told us about job loss, shutdowns, and communities on the edge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457026/original/file-20220407-11-t6cnqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C97%2C3546%2C2274&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Economies are forever changing and the loss of some industries or businesses is part of that transformation. But change often comes at great cost for workers, many of whom are already vulnerable.</p>
<p>The stories of retrenched workers give us important insights into the often complex effects of job loss. To find out more about these experiences, we interviewed 28 workers made redundant from the auto sector around South Australia and Victoria over the past five years, as part of a larger research project about disadvantaged communities.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2022.2078737#.YqVksHZBw2w">paper, published in the journal Regional Studies, Regional Science</a>, reveals how economic change interrupts careers and life plans, casting people into new worlds of precarious work and long, indefinite journeys in search of security.</p>
<p>The stories of these automotive workers are not unique; they reflect the experiences of many workers in Australia who have faced retrenchment and redundancy as industries and businesses have closed.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-departure-of-toyota-holden-and-ford-really-means-for-workers-23137">What the departure of Toyota, Holden and Ford really means for workers</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Bad jobs are easy to find</h2>
<p>Since being retrenched, many of our interviewees have struggled to find a job that is secure, safe and pays a decent wage.</p>
<p>Bad jobs – with undesirable hours and low pay – are easy to find, and many are forced to take them. Many are also shocked by what they find at their new workplaces – poor safety standards, toxic cultures and boring or “disgusting” work. These included jobs as diverse as food processing, cleaning, warehousing, chicken killing and grout manufacturing. </p>
<p>As one worker who’d been made redundant three years before <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2022.2078737#.YqVksHZBw2w">told</a> us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I got a job as a prefabrication supervisor […] And that was absolutely horrible, horrible, horrible […] just the safety stuff, you know, like they talked a lot of safety, but there was never much action […] just a bullying culture.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another left a processing job with a food company after just two days, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I couldn’t do that job. It was absolutely disgusting. It was hot. They were arrogant towards you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Workers often left jobs quickly, or struggled through while looking for something else. The result was a high level of employment instability, as people cycled through multiple jobs searching for one they could tolerate long term.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men working on automotive engineering." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457029/original/file-20220407-19249-cwi93t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ex-automotive workers shared their experiences candidly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>‘It really, really scarred me’</h2>
<p>Workers at the bottom of the labour market often experience demanding or demoralising recruitment processes for casual positions through labour hire agencies. These workers are made to feel feel they can’t afford to be choosy:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>So labour hire, I just pretty much I just said yes to everything. And that’s the way, that’s the work in labour hire. If you start saying no, then you go to the back of the list.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Casual jobs often serve as a kind of probation, but there are no guarantees:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I couldn’t see a future. Yeah. So I would just continue to look around […] because I couldn’t see them taking me any further than casual.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>One worker who had already experienced bad employers <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2022.2078737#.YqVksHZBw2w">described</a> the difficult choice she faced:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I would like [to leave this job and look for something] permanent. But I really don’t want to go into another workplace like [company name], it really, really scarred me.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Workers want their old lives back – even if that’s not the “real world” any more. As one <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2022.2078737#.YqVksHZBw2w">put it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I just think there’s a lot of work out there that, there’s just bits and pieces, and it doesn’t really support someone to have a proper job or be able to afford a decent life […] I’ve probably had maybe six, seven, eight jobs since [the closures]. And none of them have been that good. And I mean, I’ve hated most of them.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A new world of precarious work</h2>
<p>In many established sectors, workers once enjoyed good working conditions – often over decades of employment in what they believed were “jobs for life”. Job loss thrust them into a new world of precarious work very different from what they’d known.</p>
<p>Many were downhearted about this new reality:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s just very, very dodgy […] it’s sad, really sad to think that there’s, like, these places out there. And there’s so many of them and they’re operating the way they do and, and nobody’s really controlling any of it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some never stopped longing for a job that made them feel the way their old job did:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I just miss [my old firm], I miss their way of working. Building up you as a person, as a team.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even those who had adjusted to their new working lives admitted that you needed to be willing to do anything:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[T]here is work out there […] Too many people are too choosy, that’s the problem […] I didn’t give a shit what sort of work I did […] There’s money in shit.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Better jobs – not just more jobs</h2>
<p>At the start of the pandemic, the nation’s leaders talked about “building back better”. </p>
<p>For those living on the margins of our workforce and those made redundant through processes beyond their control, “building back better” means finding ways to create better – not just more – jobs.</p>
<p>Australian workers want security, decent conditions and job satisfaction, not a choice between one “shit” workplace and another.</p>
<p>Most of all, they want work they can build their lives around. If we don’t listen to the voices of those living on the fringe, the problems we know all too well today will haunt our communities into the future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-choice-pay-for-a-car-industry-or-live-with-the-consequences-8305">Australia's choice: pay for a car industry, or live with the consequences</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This story is part of The Conversation's Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Beer receives funding from Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Our interviews with ex-automotive workers reveal how economic change interrupts lives, casting people into new worlds of precarious work and long, indefinite journeys in search of security.Helen Dinmore, Research Fellow, University of South AustraliaAndrew Beer, Executive Dean, UniSA Business, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460192020-09-23T05:51:51Z2020-09-23T05:51:51ZMore neurotic, less agreeable, less conscientious: how job insecurity shapes your personality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357794/original/file-20200914-20-1wwltes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C938%2C3800%2C2855&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With unemployment at its highest rate in three decades, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/aug-2020">almost a million Australians</a> are experiencing the anxiety of being out of work. Even more are underemployed, and more still holding on to jobs for now, not knowing if that will last.</p>
<p>If you feel secure in your job, you are lucky. Because the psychological fallout of job insecurity can last a lifetime.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/winding-back-jobkeeper-and-jobseeker-will-push-740-000-australians-into-poverty-145308">Winding back JobKeeper and JobSeeker will push 740,000 Australians into poverty</a>
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<hr>
<p>Many studies have shown the association between employment and psychological and physical well-being. A meta-analysis of <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0021-9010.90.1.53">104 empirical studies</a> by behavioural researcher Frances McKee-Ryan and colleagues argues the evidence is “strongly supportive of a causal relationship” between unemployment and mental health. </p>
<p>The effect of job insecurity, however, has been less researched, even though such insecurity has long been an issue for many in contract-based, casual and gig economy jobs; and it will affect many more as the threat of artificial intelligence and automation looms.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fapl0000488">large-scale study</a>, tracking the experience of more than a thousand Australians over nearly a decade, suggests job insecurity over a prolonged period can actually change your personality. And that could make a significant difference to your life and well-being decades down the track. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hunger-lost-income-and-increased-anxiety-how-coronavirus-lockdowns-put-huge-pressure-on-young-people-around-the-world-145059">Hunger, lost income and increased anxiety: how coronavirus lockdowns put huge pressure on young people around the world</a>
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<hr>
<h2>How we tracked personality changes</h2>
<p>Personality is often assumed to be stable and enduring. A growing body of research, however, shows how personalities evolve over time. For example, on average self-confidence, warmth, self-control and emotional stability tends to increase as we age, with the greatest change being between the age of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8721.2008.00543.x">20 and 40</a>. </p>
<p>Studies like ours are investigating how work experiences shape personality over time. Previous studies, for example, suggest more <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001879115000585">autonomy at work</a> can increases a person’s ability to cope with new and unpredictable situations. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001879115300191">demanding and stressful job</a>, on the other hand, can make someone more neurotic and less conscientious.</p>
<p>To explore the possible personality effects, we used data from the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda">Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey</a>, a national survey that collects information from a large and representative sample of Australians each year. The survey tracks the same people as far as is possible, which enables researchers to look at how individual changes over time. Respondents are asked (among other things) how secure they feel their job is, as well as questions relating to personality traits. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359494/original/file-20200923-14-16kdhio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359494/original/file-20200923-14-16kdhio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359494/original/file-20200923-14-16kdhio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359494/original/file-20200923-14-16kdhio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359494/original/file-20200923-14-16kdhio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359494/original/file-20200923-14-16kdhio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359494/original/file-20200923-14-16kdhio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Demanding and stressful work can make someone more neurotic and less conscientious.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We analysed nine years of data from 1,046 Australians working in a range of occupations and professions. Every four years (years 1, 5 and 9) participants completed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1207/s15327752jpa6303_8">a well-established personality measure</a>, asking them to describe their characteristics against adjectives such as “talkative”, “moody”, “warm”, “orderly” and “creative”. </p>
<p>These adjectives reflect where people sit in relation to five key personality traits: neuroticism (or emotional stability), extraversion, openness, agreeableness and conscientiousness. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five key personality traits" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359490/original/file-20200923-18-1k0qevp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<hr>
<p>In our modelling approach, we examined how participants’ chronic job insecurity in preceding years (i.e. during years 1-4 and 5-8) predicted their personality change after this experience (i.e. during years 1-5 and 5-9). We controlled for other job characteristics (such as job autonomy and demands) to establish the specific impact of chronic job insecurity. </p>
<h2>Effects of chronic job insecurity</h2>
<p>Our analysis showed that workers who experienced job insecurity over several consecutive years became less emotionally stable, less agreeable and less conscientious. </p>
<p><strong>1. Reduced emotional stability</strong></p>
<p>Understandably, chronic job insecurity can cause us to become anxious, tense, irritable and depressed. </p>
<p>Job insecurity itself is already worrying, and when this goes on for a long time, it can make us feel we are trapped in that situation, unable to escape. </p>
<p>As a result, we are likely to become more depressed and neurotic over time with obvious impacts on our personal and family relationships, as well as our professional relationships.</p>
<p><strong>2. Reduced agreeableness</strong></p>
<p>Agreeable people are big on sympathy, cooperation and helping others. They’re the ones really good at building harmonious social relationships.</p>
<p>But when a potential threat hangs over us for an extended period of time, chronic job insecurity can shift our focus to be more on ourselves instead of on others. </p>
<p>This can really affect our standing as a positive and likeable team member at work, or the home.</p>
<p><strong>3. Reduced conscientiousness</strong></p>
<p>Research shows that when we’re constantly worried about the continuity of our jobs we are likely to become less motivated to put in effort, set goals and achieve goals in a reliable way. </p>
<p>This is bad news for those of us trying to keep motivated through tough times. It’s also bad news for who we work for. Maintaining productivity and motivation will be a massive challenge for many managers.</p>
<h2>What this means for personality growth</h2>
<p>The three personality traits affected most severely by chronic job insecurity are those most associated with healthy personality growth.</p>
<p>As we age and mature, we generally become more emotionally stable, more agreeable and more conscientious. Our research shows chronic job insecurity can stunt this emotional growth, interrupting the healthy mellowing of our personalities. </p>
<h2>How to save your ‘self’</h2>
<p>None of this is very cheery. But the good news is that, apart from worrying about it, there are things you can actually do. </p>
<p>The first step is to “know thyself” and be aware of the pitfalls, then to cultivate a growth mindset by accepting change and being open to new opportunities. </p>
<p>Human beings have a natural tendency to <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amr.2018.0271">perceive uncertainty in negative terms</a>, which helps explain why we are prone to falling into a vicious cycle induced by unemployment and job insecurity. But such negative thinking can be mitigated through conscious awareness and deliberate practice. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/struggling-with-the-uncertainty-of-life-under-coronavirus-how-kierkegaards-philosophy-can-help-144671">Struggling with the uncertainty of life under coronavirus? How Kierkegaard's philosophy can help</a>
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<hr>
<p>Focus on things you can control. Look for solutions rather than dwell on problems.</p>
<p>Be willing to learn new skills or take on new tasks. Research has shown that <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-38573-001">being proactive in managing your career</a>, such as plotting a career plan, actively building a network of contacts for career advice, and talking with peers and boss about future opportunities, all help to cope with insecure work conditions. </p>
<p>Also important is to look out for each other. Support from <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/001872679604900203">colleagues, family and friends</a> has been found to help build resilience and confidence, mitigating the potential negative spiral of job insecurity on personality in the long run.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:mark.griffin@curtin.edu.au">mark.griffin@curtin.edu.au</a> receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sharon Kaye Parker receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chia-Huei Wu and Lena Wang do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Workers who experience job insecurity over several consecutive years become less emotionally stable, less agreeable and less conscientious.Lena Wang, Senior Lecturer in Management, RMIT UniversityChia-Huei Wu, Professor in Organizational Psychology, University of LeedsMark Griffin, Director, Future of Work Institute, Curtin UniversitySharon Kaye Parker, Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1231382019-09-17T12:48:56Z2019-09-17T12:48:56ZReparations are essential to eliminating the substantial wealth gap between black and white Americans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292683/original/file-20190916-19068-igbrok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are among the 2020 presidential hopefuls in favor of reparations. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/7d9da05d13d740eeaeb36b1586b95984/134/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four hundred years ago, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/1619-america-slavery.html">America’s first enslaved Africans arrived</a> in Virginia. </p>
<p>Centuries later, black Americans have managed to accumulate some wealth, but it still pales in comparison to that of whites. This racial wealth gap is a result not only of the horrors of slavery but also policies – such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/jim-crow-18120">Jim Crow laws</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-wealth-equality-remains-out-of-reach-for-black-americans-111483">redlining</a> and <a href="https://www.naacp.org/criminal-justice-fact-sheet/">modern-day mass incarceration</a> – that followed. </p>
<p>The average white family with at least one working adult over 25 years old owned more than <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/reports/2018/02/21/447051/systematic-inequality">nine times as much total wealth</a> as a black one in 2016. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xhht0KcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of wealth inequality</a> and its causes, I believe the promise of equal opportunity for all remains unfulfilled as long as this massive gulf persists. A <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/11/20690710/pete-buttigieg-douglass-plan-systemic-racism-black-voters">variety of proposals have been suggested</a> by Democratic candidates for president and others to close this gap, such as eliminating housing discrimination and making college free for all. </p>
<p>Two colleagues and I <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/reports/2019/08/07/473117/simulating-progressive-proposals-affect-racial-wealth-gap/">created an economic simulator</a> to model the impact of five of the most ambitious proposals. Our results show why reparations that directly target African Americans are likely the only way to eliminate it. </p>
<h2>Why wealth matters</h2>
<p>This wealth gap matters a lot because it means African Americans have far fewer opportunities to get ahead and less economic security. </p>
<p>Wealth is what allows families to start a business, send their children to college, switch jobs when new opportunities arise, buy a house and retire comfortably. It’s also what helps people get through unexpected financial hits, such as a layoff, medical emergency or simply a leaky roof. </p>
<p>Although whites generally have more wealth than every other racial and ethnic group, the gap between them and African Americans is particularly large. </p>
<p>For example, the average white family had <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/reports/2018/02/21/447051/systematic-inequality/">US$935,584 in wealth in 2016</a>, compared with $102,477 for blacks and <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/reports/2018/12/05/461823/job-not-enough/">$176,635 for Latino households</a>. </p>
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<p>Importantly, this gap between African Americans and whites persists <a href="https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/one-time-pubs/color-of-wealth.aspx">even when we account for education</a>. And the <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/reports/2018/02/21/447051/systematic-inequality/">gap worsens with age</a>. African Americans are much worse prepared for retirement, for instance, than whites are.</p>
<h2>Five proposals to reduce the gap</h2>
<p>My colleagues <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/about/staff/solomon-danyelle/bio/">Danyelle Solomon</a>, <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/about/staff/maxwell-connor/bio/">Connor Maxwell</a> and I put together a <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/reports/2019/08/07/473117/simulating-progressive-proposals-affect-racial-wealth-gap/">simulation model</a> to examine the effectiveness of five proposals offered by <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/11/20690710/pete-buttigieg-douglass-plan-systemic-racism-black-voters">Democratic candidates</a> and <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/ext/2016/01/28/130136/improving-americans-retirement-outcomes-through-the-national-savings-plan/">progressive experts</a> to close the racial wealth gap. </p>
<ol>
<li><p>The creation of “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cory-booker-wants-a-baby-bond-for-every-us-child-would-it-work/2019/08/15/35003f16-b88b-11e9-bad6-609f75bfd97f_story.html">baby bonds</a>,” which involve the government opening an interest-bearing account for every child born in the U.S. and adding new funds annually until the age of 18</p></li>
<li><p>Elimination of housing segregation and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/06/politics/kamala-harris-black-homeownership-plan-racial-wealth-gap/index.html">mortgage market discrimination</a> such as redlining</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/4/22/18509196/elizabeth-warren-debt-free-college">Making college tuition free</a> for everyone and eliminating existing student debt</p></li>
<li><p>Creating universal <a href="https://www.edd.ca.gov/employers/calsavers.htm">retirement savings plans</a> that are low cost and low risk, which would disproportionately benefit families of color </p></li>
<li><p>Effective enforcement of <a href="https://consumerfed.org/press_release/consumer-advocates-from-around-the-nation-to-meet-today-congress-to-urge-stronger-consumer-financial-protections/">consumer finance regulations</a> to eliminate predatory interest rates and fees, and ensure <a href="https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/wall-street/?mkwid=so1a1I3xB%7Cpcrid%7C367767426195%7Cpkw%7Celizabeth%20warren%7Cpmt%7Cp%7Cpdv%7Cc%7Cslid%7C%7Cproduct%7C%7Cpgrid%7C71352540229%7Cptaid%7Ckwd-171777258%7C&pgrid=71352540229&ptaid=kwd-171777258&source=WFP2019-LB-GS-NAT&subsource=71352540229-elizabeth%20warren-p-367767426195&refcode=WFP2019-LB-GS-NAT&refcode2=71352540229-elizabeth%20warren-p-367767426195&utm_source=Google&utm_campaign=WFP2019-LB-GS-NAT&utm_term=elizabeth%20warren-367767426195&utm_medium=Search&gclid=CjwKCAjw5fzrBRASEiwAD2OSV9YLfobSgW2yMqkCaSQ9Z_kxMp_uvmT0c18_N1dG3Hf-qFB1z0u6sBoCzcYQAvD_BwE">equal access to affordable</a> financial products. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>We modeled how each plan would affect the earnings and savings of people starting out their careers in 2020, at age 25, until retirement 40 years later. Importantly, we used the broadest possible versions of these proposals in our model, which meant that the impact on the racial wealth gap would likely be larger than the actual plans put forth by the politicians. </p>
<p>We found that baby bonds led to the single largest effect. They would close 24% of the gap by the time people retire. The other policies had much more modest effects, with effective financial regulation having the smallest impact. It would only shrink the gap by 1.5%. </p>
<p>Even if all five proposals were enacted next year, blacks would still possess just 52% of the wealth owned by whites by by 2060, leaving a gap of more than $1 million.</p>
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<h2>A 400-year head start</h2>
<p>The proposals we simulated are progressive and disproportionately help African Americans, and there are good reasons to pursue each policy to help close the black-white wealth gap. </p>
<p>But every one of them also offers assistance to white families, who have a 400-year head start building wealth in America. Our research suggests to eliminate the gap altogether requires <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/economy/reparations-slavery.html">pursuing policies</a> that exclusively target African Americans and help them build up enough wealth to match that of whites. </p>
<p>In other words, some form of reparations – whether in the form of lump sum transfers or <a href="http://cas2.umkc.edu/ECON/economics/faculty/Forstater/688/Reading/Black%20Political%20Economy/EconomicsReparations.pdf">creating funds</a> that help blacks buy homes or start a business – needs to be part of the debate. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Weller is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, which published the simulation discussed in this article. </span></em></p>Several presidential hopefuls have offered proposals to close the racial wealth gap, from baby bonds to reparations. A simulation suggests policies short of direct aid to blacks won’t do the trick.Christian Weller, Professor of Public Policy and Public Affairs, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/873782017-11-15T13:28:48Z2017-11-15T13:28:48ZSouth Africa must do more to keep teachers from seeking ‘greener pastures’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194354/original/file-20171113-27635-1uabqyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Much more must be done to keep teachers in South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, many teachers are choosing to leave their home countries once they’ve qualified. It’s a global phenomenon, and one that impacts both developed and developing nations – in <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2010/gaef3291.doc.htm">some positive</a> ways, but with negative effects particularly for the source country that’s losing skilled teachers to supposedly “greener pastures”. International teacher mobility is driven primarily by the prospect of earning more money. Teachers from developing countries can <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.1313/pdf">double their real income</a> by teaching in some more developed host nations.</p>
<p>South African teachers are often recruited, particularly by industrialised nations, to deal with teacher shortages. South African teachers are particularly favoured for their hard work, loyalty and dedication. Most of them can also teach more than one subject.</p>
<p>I wanted to understand why South African student teachers might find working elsewhere more attractive. What is driving their migration, either through recruitment or on their own steam? So I conducted <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18146627.2017.1286942">a study</a> with a group of final-year Bachelor of Education (BEd) student teachers from a South African university. They responded to a 27-item questionnaire whose aim was to find out their career plans for the near future.</p>
<p>A sample of 134 students were involved in the survey. Most (79%) planned to stay in South Africa in the year after graduating – but a relatively high number (38%) said they’d like to be teaching in another country in five years’ time. The good news is that, of the 38%, most plan to return to South Africa after teaching elsewhere for a time. There were three main reasons for migration: the opportunity to travel; the chance to earn a higher salary and professional development.</p>
<p>But what of those who plan to leave for good? It’s important for a country like South Africa, which has a <a href="http://sace.org.za/assets/documents/uploads/sace_29250-2016-08-31-A%20review%20on%20teacher%20demand%20and%20supply%20in%20South%20Africa.pdf">scarcity</a> particularly of maths, science and language teachers, not to lose its trained teachers. Policy needs to focus on making the teaching profession stable and more appealing. South Africa must ensure that its locally trained teachers are recognised and nurtured so that they have more reason to stay in the country.</p>
<h2>Greener pastures?</h2>
<p>Of the students I surveyed, 8% said that they planned to teach in another country upon graduating and 8% were undecided. Another 4% indicated that they would not be entering the teaching profession at all. </p>
<p>Australia was most students’ preferred destination country. More than a quarter of the students (27%) who were planning to teach in another country preferred Australia, followed by the United Kingdom (16%), South Korea (16%) and the United States (14%). The most important reasons for choosing these four destination countries were higher salaries, friendly people, family and/or friends as residents. The students also cited those countries’ high standard of education and opportunities for professional growth. </p>
<p>A small percentage were planning to migrate to Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, The Netherlands, Switzerland and Scotland.</p>
<p>For the most part, students were motivated by pull rather than push factors. Some were worried about <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/why-teachers-are-leaving-their-profession-20170830">bad working conditions</a>, bad social services, an <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2017-06-15-schools-are-so-violent-teachers-live-in-fear/">unsafe environment</a> and South Africa’s <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/unemployment-rate">high rates of unemployment</a>. Mostly, though, they were focused on what other countries had to offer – pull factors.</p>
<p>They indicated that their most important migration needs before leaving South Africa were information about health care, accommodation, salary scales, banking assistance, cost of living (transport and food costs), methods of learner assessment and tax advice.</p>
<h2>Making South Africa a more attractive option</h2>
<p>Migration is always an option, especially for professionals like teachers, and is in some cases inevitable. There are no reliable figures to show how many South African teachers are lost to other countries each year. But what’s important is that the country not lose too many of its teachers, whether they’re newly qualified or established; the best and the brightest of those who are already working are also targeted, especially in scarce skill subjects such as maths and science-related subjects.</p>
<p>More must be done to make teaching an attractive, stable profession in South Africa. This can be done by improving teachers’ working conditions and salary scales – particularly those who are teaching scarce skills subjects. Policy makers and authorities must monitor teacher recruitment agencies carefully to ensure that there isn’t a mass exodus of teachers that catches the country by surprise. </p>
<p>This is important if the country is to keep at least some of its qualified, passionate teachers and build up skills in areas like maths and science.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rian de Villiers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Policy needs to focus on making the teaching profession stable and more appealing. South Africa must ensure its locally trained teachers have more reason to stay in the country.Rian de Villiers, Associate Professor: Teacher migration, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/862192017-10-31T19:05:41Z2017-10-31T19:05:41ZWill technology take your job? New analysis says more of us are safer than we thought, but not all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192181/original/file-20171027-13367-1tc0mjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">By pathdoc shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>We all want to know how many jobs will be threatened by the rise of robots and technology. You might feel vulnerable if your job is one that could be affected.</p>
<p>But thanks to a <a href="https://www.nesta.org.uk/publications/future-skills-employment-2030">new report</a>, 27% of the 160 million people in the United States labour force can breathe easier knowing their jobs are safer than they thought.</p>
<p>That’s 43 million living, breathing and working people in America. By extension, that’s three million Australians, nine million Brits and 27% of most advanced economy workforces. </p>
<p>Their prospects have been re-rated in new work by a group that includes one of the mathematicians who first raised the alarm on the risk to employment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/finkels-law-robots-wont-replace-us-because-we-still-need-that-human-touch-82814">Finkel's Law: robots won't replace us because we still need that human touch</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.nesta.org.uk/publications/future-skills-employment-2030">The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030</a>, published in September, is their most detailed investigation to date on the impact of technology and it now puts 20% of workers in the vulnerable category. </p>
<p>That’s down from the 47% cited as at risk in a 2013 study, <a href="http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf">The Future of Employment</a>, by professors Karl Frey and Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford in the UK.</p>
<h2>Other studies, other predictions</h2>
<p>Many studies have since mirrored this finding. The original Frey/Osborne study focused on American labour force data. Their followup work reached similar conclusions for Britain and Europe.</p>
<p>The Committee for the Economic Development of Australia did similar work in a 2015 report <a href="http://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/ResearchCatalogueDocuments/Research%20and%20Policy/PDF/26792-Futureworkforce_June2015.pdf">Australia’s Future Workforce</a> to reach a figure of 40%. This has been the basis for employment projections by both the <a href="https://data61.csiro.au/en/Our-Work/Future-Cities/Planning-sustainable-infrastructure/Tomorrows-Digitally-Enabled-Workforce">CSIRO’s Data61</a> and the <a href="https://www.fya.org.au/our-research/">Foundation for Younger Australians</a>.</p>
<p>It’s also underpinned the rising cry for a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/BasicIncome">basic income</a> to compensate the millions of people who risk losing work while machines create greater productivity.</p>
<p>The likelihood that 20% of the workforce is in occupations vulnerable to technology by 2030 is scary but well short of the original estimate of 47%. So what’s happened here? </p>
<h2>The new analysis</h2>
<p>The latest work – which includes Osborne as one of four co-authors – digs much deeper than the original analysis of US data that looked at nine identifiable skills that can easily be replicated by machines. It ran that data through a machine learning algorithm to reach a conclusion based purely on the impact of technology.</p>
<p>This time around the researchers started by putting together human focus groups to identify big trends other than technology that may impact employment. They included:</p>
<ul>
<li>mitigation of climate change</li>
<li>retooling cities to cope with urbanisation</li>
<li>the care needs of ageing western societies, and</li>
<li>rising consumer demand for crafted products.</li>
</ul>
<p>Then instead of going to nine categories of the <a href="https://www.onetcenter.org/">O*NET</a> data (which describes skills that make up jobs) they went to 120 categories. They found technology could supplement some jobs but not fully replace as many as earlier analysis claimed.</p>
<p>Their final, precise view was that 18.7% of the US labour force and 21.2% of the British workforce are in occupations vulnerable to technology disruption. At the other end of the scale 9.6% (8% in the UK) are in occupations where demand for humans? will increase through technology.</p>
<p>The remaining 70% or so on either side of the Atlantic are in the unknown category.</p>
<h2>Skills needed for the future</h2>
<p>Interestingly, this report warns of the risk to innovation from concerns over the previous high estimates. It agrees with growing assertions that creativity and complex problem solving ability to support technology skills are essential to future workforce success. So will personal interaction skills and the continuing ability to learn.</p>
<p>This was emphasised in last year’s work on innovative businesses by the <a href="http://acola.org.au/wp/saf10/">Australian Council of Learned Academies</a>. The ability of humans to supplement machines (or vice versa) is also central to recent work by <a href="http://www.babson.edu/Academics/faculty/profiles/Pages/Davenport-Thomas.aspx">Professor Thomas Davenport</a> of Boston’s Babson College.</p>
<p>In his 2016 book <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062438614/only-humans-need-apply">Only Humans Need Apply</a>, Davenport and Harvard Business Review editor Julia Kirby argue there will be plenty of human roles in technologically equipped workplaces - blue and white collar.</p>
<p>Speaking at a <a href="http://www.real-world-futures.qut.edu.au/">QUT Real World Futures conference</a> last year, Davenport cited the law where technology looked threatening but, on his estimate, eight lawyers might do the work of ten.</p>
<p>The impact of technology on future workforces is now hotly contested. This research advance by one of the authors whose work has helped fuel a dystopian view of the future has potential to shift the boundaries towards technology acceptance.</p>
<p>While the headline numbers are appealing, the big question sits with the big number - the 70% in the unknown category.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-ready-for-robotopia-when-robots-replace-the-human-workforce-63653">Are we ready for Robotopia, when robots replace the human workforce?</a>
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<p>The question across advanced economies is what do we think will happen to those workers in those industries and what does it mean to our future? We need more work on this in Australia.</p>
<p>In my book <a href="http://www.uqp.uq.edu.au/book.aspx/1448/Wake%20Up-%20The%20nine%20hashtags%20of%20digital%20disruption">Wake Up - The nine h#shtags of digital disruption</a>, I argue that public policy has been slowly reactive to technology disruption. The impact of Uber and AirBnB has been foreseeable but left to chance.</p>
<p>Forming a view on the future and then assembling the data are the minimum start we should demand from governments elected to lead. The alternative is that they, themselves, will be disrupted as the numbers go against them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Fagan is the author of Wake Up - The nine h#shtags of digital disruption which is referenced in this piece. </span></em></p>The rise of robots and new technology threatens to take over many jobs, but just how many is still up for debate.David Fagan, Adjunct Professor, QUT Business School, and Director of Corporate Transition, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773612017-05-09T16:18:09Z2017-05-09T16:18:09ZHere’s why ‘cool’ offices don’t always make for a happier workforce<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168602/original/file-20170509-11023-1pa0xsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Expedia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Who are Britain’s happiest workers? The people who staff the London office of US travel tech firm Expedia, according to <a href="https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Award/Best-Places-to-Work-UK-LST_KQ0,22.htm">Glassdoor’s annual workplace satisfaction survey</a>. In both 2016 and 2017, Expedia rated highest for employee satisfaction, according to anonymous reviews from current and past workers.</p>
<p>Reading this <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/inside-the-happiest-workplace-in-the-uk-where-staff-can-get-a-14000-travel-allowance-2016-3/#from-the-outside-expedias-office-building-looks-a-little-dreary-like-many-others-in-london-1">Business Insider</a> profile of the “happiest office in London” might make you believe that Expedia’s high level of employee satisfaction is down almost entirely to the office itself and the various on-site perks – which includes table tennis, football, gaming consoles and a cocktail bar. There’s no doubt that this is a very attractive office.</p>
<p>But the survey of the employees shows that Expedia’s people like working there because of the business, not the fancy office. The most positive ratings cite “culture” and “career opportunities”. The physical surroundings barely merit a mention.</p>
<p>This is a trend. Workplace contentment is too often incorrectly attributed to the aesthetics of the office, disregarding more influential factors such as job security or work satisfaction. But since we can’t Instagram job security, it’s the offices that get the credit.</p>
<p>It’s very easy, when profiling a company as Business Insider did, to use their expensively designed office as a metaphor for happy employees. It’s a false narrative. Happy workplaces don’t need beanbags, barbecue stations and <a href="http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/coolest-office-ever-10348172">ball pits</a>.</p>
<p>Those are (arguably) nice to have, but they’re not culture. In their attempts to be seen as fun, happy places to work, modern businesses are venturing very close to turning their offices into circuses (or literally in the case of Liverpool, England’s “<a href="http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/coolest-office-ever-10348172">coolest office</a>”) in order to improve perceptions to potential hires and journalists.</p>
<p>Yes, Expedia is a happy workplace and yes, it has a very nice office. But that’s more likely because companies that invest in creating a nice physical environment are also likely to invest in more meaningful areas of employee contentment too. Expedia offers its people up to US$14,000 (£10,800) a year in travel perks, for example.</p>
<h2>Happiness is not a hammock</h2>
<p>Businesses spend <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-shouldnt-be-trying-to-make-people-happy-at-work-all-of-the-time-44768">billions of dollars every year</a> trying to make their people happy. But it’s not working. In America, <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/183041/employee-engagement-holds-steady.aspx?utm_source=EMPLOYEE_ENGAGEMENT&utm_medium=topic&utm_campaign=tiles">70% of the workforce are disengaged</a>. Office workers want more than toys and breakout spaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168603/original/file-20170509-10997-191jnxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168603/original/file-20170509-10997-191jnxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168603/original/file-20170509-10997-191jnxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168603/original/file-20170509-10997-191jnxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168603/original/file-20170509-10997-191jnxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168603/original/file-20170509-10997-191jnxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168603/original/file-20170509-10997-191jnxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Driving workplace performance?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Expedia</span></span>
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<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.kiwimovers.co.uk/news/hammocks-and-ping-pong-tables-going-into-storage-is-this-end-of-the-fun-startup-office/">a study</a> I was recently involved with revealed that approval-seeking quirky perks can actually annoy office workers. People rarely want to work in a hammock or <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/absurd-decor-modern-tech-startup-offices-chappell-ellison-2016-3?r=US&IR=T">take a crisis meeting in a ballpit</a>.</p>
<p>If only employers would listen more they’d realise their people aren’t asking for much. Screen privacy is a big thing for many – 74% of the 1,000 office workers surveyed by <a href="https://www.kiwimovers.co.uk/storage/psychology-of-office-layout/">in a related study</a> said the feeling that others can see what they’re working on causes them some degree of anxiety. This is an issue that is cheap to fix and which would improve workplace contentment for many. But it’s hardly Instagrammable.</p>
<p>Employee satisfaction is more often derived from simple measures such as investing in high-quality, comfortable furniture and providing refreshments, not the hay bales and hammocks cited by study recipients as being among the most pointless attempts at creating an Instagrammable office.</p>
<p>A 2016 <a href="https://www.shrm.org/hr-today/trends-and-forecasting/research-and-surveys/Documents/2016-Employee-Job-Satisfaction-and-Engagement-Report-Executive-Summary.pdf">Society for Human Resource Management study</a> said it’s pay, prospects, feeling respected and trust that gives the most happiness to employees. Hardly groundbreaking news. Money aside, it’s more about relationships than values, CSR or aesthetics that gets people out of bed on Mondays.</p>
<p>It stands to reason. One of the biggest sources of happiness – in life, not just at work – comes from forging strong and close relationships, according to a study of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgebradt/2015/05/27/the-secret-of-happiness-revealed-by-harvard-study/#5ce2e8386786">Harvard’s class of 1980</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"857888703116607488"}"></div></p>
<p>So how do companies foster good relations among their people? The obvious answer would be office socials, an open-plan workspace and regular activities, something most modern offices are already investing in. Companies such as Expedia also invest in events which combine training with networking opportunities.</p>
<h2>Deep and meaningful</h2>
<p>But it might not be that simple. If we’re talking about genuinely strong, meaningful relationships, these are rarely forged in comfortable offices. If you want stable, long-lasting friendships from work, you need to get out of the office altogether.</p>
<p>A survey of <a href="https://www.stormlinegear.com/news/fair-weather-friends-fishermen-lumberjacks-farmers-make-longer-lasting-workplace-friendships/">1,000 UK adults</a> conducted in February 2017 found that people who work in highly social environments such as city centre offices with easy access to pubs and bars, or “campus-style” complexes fared worse when it came to relationship building with colleagues than farmers, oil riggers and and night shift workers. In fact, the more antisocial your work environment, the more likely you are to make stronger friendships.</p>
<p>Workplaces that make it easy for their people to socialise effectively foster a casual attitude to relationship building. Harsher work environments, like those based outdoors, drive people to build stronger relationships.</p>
<p>It may seem counter-intuitive, but digging a little deeper reveals that ease of socialising makes for more surface-level relationships. If every night of the week is an opportunity to hang out after work, relationships tend to be based on opportunity and convenience. People with fewer socialising opportunities tend to be more selective about the people they hang out with.</p>
<p>It’s not necessarily the act of being outdoors that contributes to stronger workplace friendships, but more likely the nature of the work itself. Jobs such as sea fishing, construction and defence require physical teamwork and have an element of danger, which can promote relationship building that transcends the job role in a way that office jobs don’t quite do.</p>
<p>In outdoor roles, there’s stricter selection criteria for socialising when the office drinks option doesn’t exist. People who work on boats, building sites or on night shifts have to make more of an effort to socialise with colleagues, so it’s more likely that when they do socialise, it’s with people they’d choose to socialise with regardless of work relationships.</p>
<p>This stricter social selection criteria likely increases the chances of those relationships lasting longer and becoming more meaningful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cary Cooper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It takes more than cocktails and table football to make a happy workforce. Respect and job security are vital.Cary Cooper, Distinguished Professor of Organizational Psychology and Health, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/729152017-02-20T09:36:22Z2017-02-20T09:36:22ZJob insecurity cuts to the core of identity and social stability – and can push people towards extremism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157111/original/image-20170216-12953-cyjq80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hanging by a thread?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Will I lose my job in the near future?” For most people this is an unpleasant scenario to ponder, and for many it is a real and pressing concern. Since the financial crisis, more than half of all jobs created in the European Union have been <a href="https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/sites/default/files/ef_publication/field_ef_document/ef1557en.pdf">through temporary contracts</a>.</p>
<p>This high level of job insecurity doesn’t just have an economic effect on people, making financial planning extremely difficult. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/job.2172/abstract">Our research</a> shows how the precarious nature of the job market has a huge impact on how people feel, too. In fact, job insecurity strikes at the core of who we perceive ourselves to be – our identity – and this can have much wider ramifications for society. </p>
<p>Psychologists rank job insecurity among <a href="https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/phwa/workplace-survey.pdf">the most prominent work place stressors</a>. The worry of not knowing whether you will be laid off, whether you will be able to pay your bills, and whether you still have a future within an organisation, is, of course, very stressful, especially when it is out of your hands. Job insecurity implies a potentially adverse future, and one which you cannot control. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157112/original/image-20170216-12964-r33smg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157112/original/image-20170216-12964-r33smg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157112/original/image-20170216-12964-r33smg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157112/original/image-20170216-12964-r33smg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157112/original/image-20170216-12964-r33smg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157112/original/image-20170216-12964-r33smg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157112/original/image-20170216-12964-r33smg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Job insecurity has health, as well as financial, effects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indeed the list of negative consequences of job insecurity is depressingly long; the more people worry about losing their jobs the lower their mental <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Magnus_Sverke/publication/11233704_No_Security_A_Meta-Analysis_and_Review_of_Job_Insecurity_and_Its_Consequences/links/0912f50fec4455f617000000/No-Security-A-Meta-Analysis-and-Review-of-Job-Insecurity-and-Its-Consequences.pdf">well-being</a>, and the more physical health complaints they report. Effects can range from occasional sleeping problems to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953604003892">clinical depression</a>. </p>
<p>For organisations, the effects of job insecurity are also <a href="http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/45119/1/10.pdf">pervasively negative</a>. Contrary to popular belief, the worry of losing one’s job does not act as a motivator. Instead, it typically leads to poorer performance at work. And within communities or countries, widespread job insecurity is associated with political unrest, with insecure jobs cited as a cause of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379402000471">political extremism</a>. Job insecurity, in short, seems to get the blame for many of individuals’, organisations’ and society’s ills.</p>
<h2>Sense of self</h2>
<p>So why exactly is job insecurity so bad? Jobs mean more to us than just providing a financial income alone. What we do for work is an important aspect of who we are. After all, most of us spend about a third of our lives working. When someone is introduced to a stranger, very often one of the first questions that pops up is “so, what do you do for a living?” Even in retirement homes, a popular pastime is to discuss previous work. Thus, our job is important to our sense of self, to who we feel we are.</p>
<p>So, it is not surprising that job insecurity threatens how we feel about ourselves – that is, our identity. In a study of British employees, we discovered that people who were afraid of losing their jobs often felt their identity as an employed person was diminished, even though they were still actually at work. Job insecurity – as common as it might be – was perceived as an alienating experience, excluding people from the status and community of “the employed”, and making them feel less normal. </p>
<p>In turn, this affected their well-being: people who felt a loss of identity as an employed person reported problems in concentrating and sleeping, and felt they were losing their confidence in themselves. Feeling excluded also affected people’s behaviour at work, performing the core parts of their jobs less effectively. </p>
<p>So while job insecurity threatens our immediate well-being – such as future income, relations with colleagues, the ability to finish an important project at work – it goes deeper than this and threatens important parts of who we are. And the way that it harms our perception of ourselves can have a pervasive effect on those who suffer from it, as they attempt to deal with their insecurity. This manifests itself in sometimes contradictory ways.</p>
<p>For example, people who feel threatened in their identity have been found to be more likely to turn against others (if that helps their own status), while at the same time identifying with others who experience a similar threat. Feeling “less normal” might make people more susceptible to messages that make them feel more included again – for example, the opportunity to become part of something greater, making their own, excluded group “great” again. For others, feeling more alienated makes them more empathetic – towards other, more excluded people, unemployed people, minorities. This explains how job insecurity pushes some people towards political extremes, both right and left.</p>
<p>This growing evidence of the harmful effects of job insecurity – on individual’s identity and hence well-being, as well as on company performance – shows it is time not only for organisations, but for politicians to wake up to the issue. Policies are needed to counter the growing trend towards temporary work and zero-hours contracts, with added protection required to ensure people do not feel excluded from society and pushed toward extremism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva Selenko currently receives funding from the British Academy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Stride currently receives funding from the ESRC and the Nuffield Trust. </span></em></p>Psychologists rank job insecurity as one of the most stressful things about work – new research uncovers why.Eva Selenko, Senior Lecturer in Work Psychology, Loughborough UniversityChris Stride, Senior Lecturer (Statistician), University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/666812016-11-06T20:25:34Z2016-11-06T20:25:34ZRobots likely to be used in classrooms as learning tools, not teachers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144163/original/image-20161102-27228-1qon5kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Humanoids have the ability to provide real-time feedback to students.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.362.6785&rep=rep1&type=pdf">Robots</a> are increasingly being used to teach students in the classroom for a number of subjects across science, maths and language. But our <a href="http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2974829">research shows</a> that while students enjoy learning with robots, teachers are slightly reluctant to use them in the classroom. </p>
<p>In our study, which saw staff and students interact with the Nao humanoid robot, teachers said they were more sceptical of robots being integrated into the classroom. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144165/original/image-20161102-27240-il6kf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144165/original/image-20161102-27240-il6kf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144165/original/image-20161102-27240-il6kf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144165/original/image-20161102-27240-il6kf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=881&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144165/original/image-20161102-27240-il6kf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1107&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144165/original/image-20161102-27240-il6kf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1107&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144165/original/image-20161102-27240-il6kf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1107&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In our study, students enjoyed the human-like interaction with the Nao humanoid robot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They preferred the robot to not have full autonomy and instead take on restricted roles in the classroom. The teachers also wanted full control over the robot. We observed that the teachers were in general unaware of robots and hence there was a technological bias associated with their opinions.</p>
<p>They said they did not trust the technical capabilities of the robot and wanted the robot to function and behave as a learning “buddy” of children and not as a teacher. We think this <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-016-0667-2">reluctance</a> may have occurred primarily due to an uncertainty of how best to incorporate robots in the class, and a lingering concern that robots may eventually replace teachers.</p>
<p>This is despite <a href="http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7451776/?arnumber=7451776&tag=1">research</a> showing that robots are much more likely to be used as learning tools than as teachers in a classroom. </p>
<p>The students, on the other hand, were much more enthusiastic about a robot in their classroom, enjoying the human-like interaction. </p>
<p>However, they wanted the robot to adapt its behaviour to their feelings and display a wide range of emotions and expressions. Such fully autonomous behaviour will require further research and development in robotics.</p>
<p>For example, some of the children felt the robot’s voice was unnatural and did not adapt to situations by changing tone or pitch.</p>
<p>The children preferred as natural behaviour from the robot as possible, even to the extent that they were untroubled by the robot making mistakes, such as forgetting. It was clear the children were imagining the robot in the role of their teacher. </p>
<h2>How robots are currently used in the classroom</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144162/original/image-20161102-27231-1yltwaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144162/original/image-20161102-27231-1yltwaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144162/original/image-20161102-27231-1yltwaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144162/original/image-20161102-27231-1yltwaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144162/original/image-20161102-27231-1yltwaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144162/original/image-20161102-27231-1yltwaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144162/original/image-20161102-27231-1yltwaj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smaller robots or modular kits are used to teach robotics in classrooms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Numerous types of robots are being incorporated in education. They range from simple “microprocessor on wheels” robots (<a href="https://www.parallax.com/product/boe-bot-robot">boebot</a>), to advanced toolkits, (<a href="https://www.lego.com/en-us/mindstorms">mindstorms</a>) to humanoids (robots that resemble humans). </p>
<p>The choice of the robot is usually dictated by the area of study and the age group of the student. </p>
<p>Smaller robots or toolkits are particularly used to teach robotics or computer science. These toolkits can be physically manipulated allowing students to learn a variety of disciplines across engineering. However, the human-like shape of humanoids makes them easier to interact with, and for this reason are often used for language lessons.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144169/original/image-20161102-27193-lrsh5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144169/original/image-20161102-27193-lrsh5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=945&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144169/original/image-20161102-27193-lrsh5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=945&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144169/original/image-20161102-27193-lrsh5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=945&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144169/original/image-20161102-27193-lrsh5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144169/original/image-20161102-27193-lrsh5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144169/original/image-20161102-27193-lrsh5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">IROBI robot complete with inbuilt tablet computer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thomashawk/3061754863/in/photolist-6JS7Ks-5Eyi3X-6xVr9i-5sNea2-9trFa1-9eiFBo-98rMZY-6288TT">Thomas Hawk/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Humanoids have the ability to provide real-time feedback, and their <a href="http://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=E1JBB0_2008_v4n4_159">physical shape</a> increases engagement. This often leads to a personal connection with the student, which <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nian-Shing_Chen/publication/45166049_An_Online_Synchronous_Test_for_Professional_Interpreters/links/0912f50a2cda55a219000000.pdf#page=18">research</a> shows can help resolve issues related to shyness, reluctance, confidence and frustration that may arise in dealing with a human teacher. For example, a robot will not get tired no matter how many mistakes a child makes.</p>
<p>Humanoid robots are being widely utilised in classrooms in many countries including, Japan and South Korea. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144173/original/image-20161102-27215-1s1envy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144173/original/image-20161102-27215-1s1envy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144173/original/image-20161102-27215-1s1envy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144173/original/image-20161102-27215-1s1envy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144173/original/image-20161102-27215-1s1envy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144173/original/image-20161102-27215-1s1envy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144173/original/image-20161102-27215-1s1envy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pepper the robot from Softbank Robotics in Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/caseorganic/23483285390/in/photolist-GD4VBp-aJRfNZ-5BEcoa-uwMUq-Hstq3x-8zLqUd-4GCYCP-rjxqx-B61qf8-Hq3X79-fC8QQ-uwMUu-HJNRUT-HA8CQj-GPa61V-HJNS1p-HjrMUQ-A8yzJG-MeHKPs-MeHGQb-gMJXt-AumvF2-BM8YAS-jo1iwy-9ng12s-Hq48Ub-3xGL8v-Cia6M6-As3rS7-B4Ptwd-yMzdNt-AumaoP-rrFzTR-FncbFe-yLA4hq-FjTCtf-yLA3V3-A97VrR-FdMJyz-FjTCLQ-zdYscK-zTgMnb-zdYrpx-vRiFuh-MKcq9b-N4QxgB-Jbb5Nf-K7BVmK-Jbb253-BozapH">Amber Case/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nao, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3540307/Pepper-grows-Emotional-humanoid-robot-enroll-SCHOOL-Japan.html">Pepper</a>, <a href="http://www.intechopen.com/books/human-robot-interaction/robot-aided-learning-and-r-learning-services">Tiro, IROBI</a>, and <a href="http://newatlas.com/atr-robovie-robot-elementary-school/26177/">Robovie</a>, for example, are primarily used to teach English. </p>
<p>Telepresence – where a teacher can remotely connect to the classroom through the robot – is also being used as a way to teach students English. The teacher can participate in the classroom by being virtually present through a display mechanism. In some instances, the display is embedded in the robot’s torso.</p>
<p>Western countries have been much more <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10676-016-9387-z#Bib1">hesitant</a> in acknowledging the integration of robots in classrooms, with privacy, developmental hindrances, the rise in unemployment and technical deficiencies stated as the major drawbacks. </p>
<h2>Robots as learning tools, not teachers</h2>
<p>Humanoid robots are still a fair way away from being autonomously situated in schools due mainly to technological limitations such as inaccurate speech or emotion recognition.</p>
<p>However, the intention of most researchers in robotics is not for robots to replace teachers. Rather, the design goals of most robots are to function as an aid in the classroom and to enhance the added value they can bring as a stimulating and engaging educational tool. </p>
<p>In order to facilitate the integration of robots in the classroom, we need to be able to provide appropriate interfacing mechanisms (software, hardware or even mobile apps), allowing the human teacher to control the robot with minimal training.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While students enjoy learning with robots, research finds that teachers are more sceptical – worrying about their job security and technical capabilities of robots.Omar Mubin, Lecturer in human-centred computing & human-computer interaction, Western Sydney UniversityMuneeb Imtiaz Ahmad, PhD Candidate in Social Robotics, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/665622016-10-06T05:16:15Z2016-10-06T05:16:15ZFord workers willing but unlikely to find decent jobs: study<p>When Ford closes the doors on its vehicle manufacturing operations today <a href="http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/half-of-ford-employees-will-be-jobless-after-factory-shutdowns-in-broadmeadows-and-geelong/news-story/c7e639b451eae34b2e7d046e8677e424">about 600 workers</a> will walk out of the factory gate for the last time at the Broadmeadows assembly plant in Melbourne’s northern suburbs and at the company’s engine and stamping plants in Geelong. Preliminary results from <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-05/most-victorian-auto-workers-yet-to-start-looking-for-new-jobs/7904164">a survey of more than 400 auto workers</a> show that most of them still want to work but are unlikely to find secure, long-term jobs.</p>
<p>Most will become jobseekers in regions which are <a href="http://dote.org.au/wp-content/themes/dote2015/resources/melbourne.pdf">already socio-economically disadvantaged</a> with higher than average unemployment levels and lower than average household income. While 46% expect to be made redundant at some point in the next 12 months and 24% expect to remain with their current employer (either in the same role or redeployed within the company), 27% still don’t know whether or not they will have a job. This partly reflects the large number of workers employed in the supply chain and uncertainty about the survival chances of many of these businesses. </p>
<p>Most workers (62%) will want a new job if and when they are retrenched. Only a small minority plan to retire (8%), take a break from work (6%) or go into business or self-employment (1%). </p>
<p>Importantly, 50% say it is important that they stay in the same or a similar occupation. This finding highlights the ongoing need for governments to support manufacturing occupations, skills and careers. These could come from key manufacturing corridors of Victoria such as Melbourne’s southeast and northern suburbs. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, many workers will struggle to find jobs that fit their preferences and skillsets. In areas like Melbourne’s northern suburbs, near Ford’s Broadmeadows assembly plant, hundreds of newly-retrenched workers will join a local labour market in which more than one in every five jobseekers are currently out of paid work. </p>
<p>Many workers have received comprehensive assistance from the carmakers or state governments. For example, 53% say their current employer has provided help and 64% found this help useful. But there remains a critical role for government in carefully monitoring the transition for workers over the coming months and years. </p>
<p>The survey is a representative sample of all trade union members in the Victorian auto industry and part of a long-term study which will monitor the future work, job quality and health and wellbeing of these workers over the next three years. It includes employees of Ford (17%), Toyota (28%), GM Holden (7%) and many manufacturers which produce components in the auto supply chain (43%), where most of the job losses will be experienced. </p>
<p>The Australian car manufacturing industry will be gradually wound down over the next 12 months as GM Holden and Toyota follow suit and close their local car-making operations. Projected job losses resulting from these decisions are somewhere between <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/automotive/report">40,000</a> and <a href="http://apo.org.au/files/Resource/wiser_closing_the_motor_vehicle_industry_2014.pdf">200,000</a> jobs nationally.</p>
<p>Australia has never before experienced such a rapid closure of an entire, strategically-important industry, with the process taking approximately three years from the closure announcements in 2013/14 to the final shutdown in 2016/17. </p>
<p>The major concern of this study is the quality of work and quality of life outcomes for workers and communities in regions affected by closures. </p>
<p>Preliminary results from our study show that the average age of workers is 50, the average length of time with their current employer is 19 years (with some having been employed for up to 45 years). And approximately one in five primarily speak a language other than English at home. </p>
<p>Workers with limited formal education and accredited skills may also struggle. Almost half (45%) of workers left school before Year 12 and 48% do not have a trade qualification. </p>
<p>Numerous studies of past large-scale closures and redundancies suggest that particular groups are disadvantaged as jobseekers, including older workers, workers who have been with a single employer for a long period of time and workers from a non-English speaking background. </p>
<p>Workers in these categories find it more difficult to negotiate local job markets. They tend to take longer to find alternative employment and often move into poorer-quality employment with lower wages and inferior employment conditions.</p>
<p>The first round of results from this survey of auto workers will be launched at the Victorian Parliament on October 26.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Barnes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Auto manufacturing workers will face significant problems in finding new jobs after the closure of the Ford and Holden plants, a new survey has found.Tom Barnes, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute for Religion, Politics and Society, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/574662016-05-26T01:24:49Z2016-05-26T01:24:49ZWhich Facebook ‘friends’ can help you land a job?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123838/original/image-20160524-25202-on9vbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Friends indeed?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook legos via www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/handbooks/15706435">More than half of jobs</a> are found with the help of a social tie, whether a friend, relative or distant acquaintance. For example, a friend may tell you about a job opening at her firm or a parent may offer you an internship at his company. </p>
<p>For the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">eight million people in the U.S.</a> who were searching for work in April, knowing which types of social ties are most likely to be helpful is useful information. Who is more likely to help you land a job? Your close friends you talk to all the time or someone you see occasionally while lifting weights at the gym? </p>
<p>A person’s social network is made up of many social ties, and each tie is of varying strength (a close friend is a stronger tie and an acquaintance is a weaker tie). It makes intuitive sense that a strong tie might be more helpful because that person might know you better and be more willing to refer you to an employer. On the other hand, a weak tie might also be useful because that person could offer you novel information about job openings.</p>
<p>In a recent <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1086/686225">paper</a>, my co-authors and I used data drawn from millions of Facebook users to determine what kind of ties actually are most likely to lead to a job. </p>
<p>Should job seekers focus on networking primarily with their stronger ties, or is it a better use of their time to cast the net as widely as possible and make sure even the most distant Facebook “friends” are aware they’re hunting for work? </p>
<h2>Weak links?</h2>
<p>In our paper, we measured tie strength either as the number of times two people interacted over a year on Facebook in tags or posts or as the number of mutual friends they shared on the social network one year before a person started a new job. </p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/files/old-media//Files/Reports/2011/PIP%20-%20Social%20networking%20sites%20and%20our%20lives.pdf">54 percent of adults have a Facebook account</a>, and <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0052168">Facebook interaction is a good predictor of real-world tie strength</a>. It follows that a tie is weak if the two individuals have very few interactions or very few mutual friends. </p>
<p>Using these tie strength measures, our key findings show that a user is less likely to eventually join the same workplace as a friend considered a weak tie than a strong one – suggesting closer friends do in fact make a big <em>individual</em> difference in finding a job. But <em>collectively</em>, most jobs come from “weak” friendships because such relationships are far more numerous. </p>
<p>Let me explain what we did to reach these conclusions, and then we’ll see if we can answer those questions I asked at the outset. </p>
<h2>Friends in need</h2>
<p>Our primary outcome variable was whether a person eventually works at the same employer as a preexisting friend, which serves as a signal that the tie was effective in leading to a job. We called this having a “sequential job,” which we defined as occurring when the following criteria are met:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>the user and this friend currently work or previously worked at the same employer,</p></li>
<li><p>the user began working at the employer at least one year after her friend, and</p></li>
<li><p>the user and the friend were Facebook friends at least one year before the user started working at the shared employer.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The diagram below illustrates two examples of this:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118941/original/image-20160415-11185-11o0iy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118941/original/image-20160415-11185-11o0iy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118941/original/image-20160415-11185-11o0iy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118941/original/image-20160415-11185-11o0iy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118941/original/image-20160415-11185-11o0iy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118941/original/image-20160415-11185-11o0iy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118941/original/image-20160415-11185-11o0iy8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We restricted <a href="https://research.facebook.com/blog/how-strong-and-weak-ties-help-you-find-a-job">our analysis</a> to U.S. users and friends (age 16 to 64) who listed employer information, some education and who had been on Facebook for at least one year. </p>
<p>That left six million individuals and their friends, for a total of 260 million dyads (pairings). Of these six million users, about 400,000 had a “sequential job” – that is, they at some point worked with a preexisting social tie. </p>
<p>From these 400,000 users, we created a random subsample of about 1,200 and then connected them back to all their friends. That gave us about a million dyads. </p>
<h2>Collectively helpful ties</h2>
<p>To understand the potential impact a social tie had on eventual employment, we began by only looking at the friendships that eventually led to a “sequential job.”</p>
<p>We then counted up how many jobs were transmitted from the weakest ties (that is, those that had no tags, posts or mutual friends in common). Next we counted up how many jobs came from the slightly less weak ties (1 tag, 1 post or 1 mutual friend). And so on and so forth. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1200&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1200&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118811/original/image-20160414-2637-14k9vlk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This figure shows the proportion of friendships that are characterized as being weakest to strongest. The green bars are just friendships between a person who got a job (transmitee) and the friend who helped them (transmitor). The clear bars are friendships between a person who got a job (transmittee) and all their friends, both helpful and nonhelpful to job finding.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We took that information and created a diagram of these transmitee/transmitor pairs (at right) to show which friends were most likely to lead to jobs. It turned out that most jobs came from the very weakest ties (no tags, posts or mutual friends).</p>
<p>After doing a similar analysis on all friendships (even those that didn’t lead to a job), we found that most Facebook friendships are very weak. In other words, most jobs come from our more distant “friends” because most of our Facebook pals are very distant. </p>
<p>To illustrate this, consider the following hypothetical: what if I told you that most jobs come from friends who have brown eyes? Well that means that people with brown eyes are collectively more helpful than people with other colored eyes. </p>
<p>Does that also mean that an individual friend with brown eyes is more likely to be helpful than an individual friend with, say, blue eyes? Probably not, so we need to test for the individual probability a friend will be helpful, not just the collective probability.</p>
<h2>Individually helpful ties</h2>
<p>Recall that weak ties might act as bridges that convey novel information. This suggests that weak ties could be <em>individually</em> more helpful than strong ties. </p>
<p>For example, a weak tie might be an old pal from college you run into at a reunion who tells you about an open position at her company that you would have never heard about from your regular friends. That is how weak ties could be individually helpful, because they might have new information for you.</p>
<p>But is it true?</p>
<p>Not exactly. We found that people who are likely to end up working together are also likely to be strongly tied to each other and that, individually, the weak ties aren’t as helpful. </p>
<p>To isolate this effect, we used control variables to rule out a few possible issues like (1) strong ties may be similar in age, and some employers only hire younger people, (2) strong ties may be more likely to go to the same prestigious schools and some firms only hire from those schools, (3) strong ties may be more likely to live in the same city and some firms only hire from certain cities. There are a few other things we were able to rule out (such as how being an extrovert might make you more likely to have many strong ties and get a new job). </p>
<p>After all our careful checking, we still found that the probability that any single friend is helpful is highest for the very strongest ties.</p>
<p>So how about the idea of strengthening a tie, by, say, getting reacquainted with an old friend? Is that more likely to lead to a sequential job from that friend?</p>
<p>We used some mathematical modeling to see if increasing tie strength (by adding an extra tag, post or mutual friend) improves the odds that the user and friend will eventually work together. We found that an increase in tie strength is in fact associated with becoming co-workers some day.</p>
<h2>Strong and weak</h2>
<p>So if you’re looking for a job, what can you learn from our research? The answer, as it often is, is it depends. </p>
<p>Stronger ties may be most likely to put in the extra effort to help you get a job. At the same time, you never know which of your distant “friends” may have the hot tip about a departing colleague, which means collectively, just because there are so many more of them, these weak ties matter most. </p>
<p>Does that mean you should forget your best buddies and focus on expanding your social network as far and wide as possible? </p>
<p>Technically, since our paper uses preexisting networks, it tells us only who is more likely to be helpful both collectively and individually in your preexisting network. That means we can’t make any broad statements about making new friendships. </p>
<p>At the end of the day, when you’re looking for a job, it’s best to pursue every path possible, which means making sure your strong ties are helping you out and the weaker ones are aware of your search.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Gee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Who’s more likely to help you find a job, your close friends or the casual acquaintance you see at the gym? An examination of Facebook friends offers some clues.Laura Gee, Assistant Professor of Economics, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/591032016-05-16T13:39:50Z2016-05-16T13:39:50ZWho is your best friend when you are looking for work?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122309/original/image-20160512-16414-1xo6plf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keep your friends close, keep your acquaintances closer.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tess_marie/6900491360/in/photolist-bvLPEY-iptYrL-bJFBnB-ipu1S7-iptEVv-ipuJpT-k26VmV-ipuKV8-k274qa-k26K9F-ipsSeX-ipuv7c-iptEKF-4hdUTJ-k26LeX-k21sDD-k24Rpa-83PfhV-othez-5BUyG-k24tdB-k24Bkt-k21fAR-4eie6r-4eWMBx-ipsXTS-ipufdJ-ipsZ9u-ipugBs-7TpPZ8-7mqPUu-94EcJg-5LDsTX-4dDcr8-eMfrbW-fAaYES-boA4g9-5Axiq4-q7EjCY-9hk2E5-7CK1bB-9chSab-7D5rwA-k26NHz-4h9RfR-k24QJH-k23JHN-7Fvtya-42bUBJ-82y9">Tess Dixon/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people claim to have a broad social circle, but we are all more likely to consider only a handful of people as our “close” friends. These are the ones we turn to when we want advice or company. More importantly though, friends like these can give empathy and support at a time of need. Finding yourself out of work involuntarily is clearly just such a moment, and so naturally, you turn to your closest friends for help getting back in the job market. That’s what friends are for, right? </p>
<p>Well, maybe not. Contrary to received wisdom, most <a href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">social science research</a> <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2095914?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">suggests</a> that you <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2075-4698/4/4/785">are better off</a> scrolling down the contacts’ list on your smartphone (or flicking through the pages of an old phonebook) to contact those outside your inner circle – acquaintances, if you will. Success with a job or career search seems to work better this way. But why?</p>
<p>Close friends (and by “close” I mean the people you are in regular contact with) are more likely to be either colleagues or ex-colleagues of some form. Or they may live in the same place as you. In contrast, your extended network of friends is likely to be made up of people from a mix of locations and include a diverse mixture of occupations and professions. This group will be exposed to more and different kinds of job-related information. Think of it like your own personal hive mind, where the availability and flow of information from them to you is crucial.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122325/original/image-20160512-16431-nl5gg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Right for you?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/187602529/in/photolist-hzvGn-5hc9uK-f6gJtG-dUvprx-4Xpo2Q-eYQEv8-s7UWnA-57YQBi-5nSzkk-bkEcGF-LBELz-qSmVh-AqqU8-GhYQWq-5jpMo3-5jHUWn-81V4AG-4eRJ6x-5oeFVd-5mAZps-5jHXMR-968txx-5jN7ku-5i4aoo-5pFdwU-b4sa6P-fb7T6j-8X1U2A-bMXsup-cztXtf-5kWo52-u9X9e-5jYbsT-5jMRz7-6yra75-byYQZj-9Mvv9p-bkKB18-dwhWBN-dkBGy4-u9X9g-7f4oq9-dNRHYq-5h1Mb5-qeMpr1-8X1U2G-5o2bi9-5pqdHd-2eT65o-486ssh">Allen/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The trouble is that your close, employed friends – while their support might be invaluable – are likely to be privy to the same information as you. Your acquaintances, on the other hand, work for different employers, have diverse experiences and they themselves have friends who work elsewhere and so on. It is a numbers game. By getting job-related information from multiple points of origin – think tips about upcoming vacancies, or advice on search strategies, applications and interviews – you maximise the chances of finding work.</p>
<h2>Horses for courses</h2>
<p>Now, the above might suggest that your immediate social circle is of less value while you’re looking for work. This is not true. Indeed, <a href="http://asr.sagepub.com/content/70/3/408.full.pdf">a number</a> <a href="http://wox.sagepub.com/content/8/1/119.abstract">of studies</a> propose that they can be equally effective and bring great value in key areas.</p>
<p>Acquaintances will bring more job opportunities to your attention, but your friends know your skills, flaws, aptitudes, disposition and career aspirations and are thus able to screen both you and various job openings. In theory, that should lead to fewer but higher-quality suggestions. Employers are aware of such within network processes and any personal recommendations <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119002005132">tend to be viewed more favourably</a> than speculative approaches or referrals. Such recruitment channels can mean less employee turnover and reduced hiring and firing costs – after all, you are more likely to commit more to a job when sharing a workplace with friends. </p>
<p>Men’s social networks (of similar size) <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.473.6889&rep=rep1&type=pdf">appear to be more effective</a> in helping in a job search, which could be due to either women’s friends having less influence in hiring processes, or that women are seen as <a href="http://wes.sagepub.com/content/13/2/205.abstract">more likely to be voluntarily unemployed</a> than men.</p>
<p>But for women, the effect of social networks on their labour market behaviour has an additional dimension. What we know is that <a href="http://wes.sagepub.com/content/13/2/205.abstract">the composition of women’s social circle</a> matters.
Women’s social networks are better at providing them with social support, such as in childcare. And the availability and affordability of childcare is <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.473.6889&rep=rep1&type=pdf">a core factor</a> in many women’s <a href="http://ser.oxfordjournals.org/content/10/2/343.abstract">decision to return to paid work</a>. </p>
<p>In this case, the effect of friends operates through a a subsidiary channel in tandem with that of information distribution. A friend may not be able to offer a job recommendation but may be able to mind the kids for a few hours every week, allowing the mother to commit to a full or part time job. Equally, someone could offer financial assistance during a work-related training period while other friends could provide vacancy information.</p>
<h2>Virtuous circle</h2>
<p>Using your networks to exit unemployment brings obvious material and psychological gains to the individual. But why is your network important for the rest of society? </p>
<p>For a start, it means public employment services such as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/contact-jobcentre-plus">Jobcentre Plus</a> or <a href="https://www.gov.uk/jobsearch">Universal Jobmatch</a> in the UK can broaden their reach beyond job seekers in direct contact. Anyone who returns to work becomes a potential source of information to their social network. Additionally, someone may come across a job ad which may not be suitable for themselves but can be passed on through their network. This process can be particularly beneficial for those more “passive” job seekers – people who have perhaps become discouraged after long unsuccessful periods of job search. They are more likely to follow up a friend’s suggestion than actively going through job postings themselves. </p>
<p>The second advantage is that broad social networks – both traditional and of the Facebook age – can allow people to escape the trap of belonging to a kind of economic underclass where people out of work interact mostly, if not exclusively, with other unemployed people. A narrow cohort of close friends can encourage social exclusion as well as economic, social and, possibly, geographical marginalisation. Every unemployed person who can find work by calling on a wider circle of acquaintances in employment helps to grow that crucial wider network for others. It is indeed a virtuous circle.</p>
<p>We currently have little evidence on the exact magnitude of the effect of social networks on the probability of finding work, but we can confidently say that such an effect exists. We can also say that regardless how close a friend is, they can potentially provide invaluable help with finding work. You just have to make sure you’re using the right tool for the right job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Panos Sousounis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Those closest to you might not be able to get you back on your feet.Panos Sousounis, Lecturer in Economics, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561502016-03-28T23:39:15Z2016-03-28T23:39:15ZInsecure jobs and incomes carry risk of radicalisation for young Indonesian workers<p>Indonesia should address job and income insecurities that plague its large young workforce to prevent them being lured into joining violent extremist groups. </p>
<p>The world’s most-populous Muslim country is facing a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/world/asia/indonesia-islamic-state.html?_r=0">revival of radical jihadi groups</a>, as indicated by the Islamic State-linked attacks in Jakarta in January. In late February, Australia <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/25/australia-warns-indonesia-travellers-advanced-stage-terror-attack-plans">released a travel warning</a> for Indonesia, citing possible terrorist attacks. </p>
<p>The Indonesian parliament is looking to <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/indonesia-presses-for-counterterrorism-legislation-1457696882">amend its counter-terrorism laws</a> in April. </p>
<p>But aside from a law-enforcement approach to countering terrorism, the Indonesian government should tackle underlying social and economic problems that increase the risk of radicalisation among young people. </p>
<h2>Attraction to radicalism</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/reports/report_pdfs/iza_report_58.pdf">Research</a> indicates that the lack of job and income security among young people increases their risk of joining radical <a href="http://print.kompas.com/baca/2015/11/04/Anak-Muda-dan-Radikalisme">religious groups</a>.</p>
<p>To make sense of their difficult lives, they may be convinced that their precarious existence is simply the result of them “not being Islamic enough” for not adhering to “pure sharia”. Radical ideologues may persuade them the solution to their problems is to return to the “rightful Islam”. </p>
<p>These young people are prone to falling for extremism that justifies all means, including violence, to achieve the goal of “Islamic purification”. </p>
<h2>Vulnerable young people</h2>
<p>The majority of Indonesian workers, of whom more than 40% are aged between 15 and 24, hold unstable jobs. </p>
<p>They receive low and unstable incomes. Many are stuck in a short-term and temporary contract work, with little hope of progressing in their careers and income. They lack protection against accidents and illness at work. And they are isolated from having a collective voice in the labour market. </p>
<p>In 2013, the number of informal workers – those who work as coolies in the market, domestic workers and people working without proper employment contracts – accounted for <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---ilo-jakarta/documents/publication/wcms_233249.pdf.">53.6% of total employment</a> (or more than 60 million people). </p>
<p>Formal workers also face job and income insecurities. These are people who are on short-term contracts, are outsourced, on internships, or working freelance jobs. The proportion of workers experiencing informalisation increased from 6.7% in 2009 to <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_elm/---analysis/documents/publication/wcms_166299.pdf">11% in 2011</a>. </p>
<p>These workers have difficulties in planning their futures and achieving their dreams. This leads to anger and anxiety. </p>
<h2>Jakarta attackers</h2>
<p>Bahrun Naim, the alleged mastermind of the Jakarta attacks, is 32 years old. He once worked at an internet café as a computer technician, after graduating with a degree in information technology at Sebelas Maret University in Surakarta in 2005.</p>
<p>He sold <a href="http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20160115154133-185-104591/bahrun-naim-kisah-penjaga-warnet-jadi-perekrut-isis/">flags and Islamic knick-knacks</a> for additional income. </p>
<p>Ahmad Muhazan, 25, was the youngest of the attack’s perpetrators. He <a href="http://www.republika.co.id/berita/nasional/umum/16/01/15/o0zf5v328-ibu-ahmad-muhazan-pingsan-dengar-anaknya-tewas">reportedly</a> worked in a tyre store owned by his older brother and at a kebab shop. </p>
<h2>Finding a solution</h2>
<p>Indonesia needs to find a solution to provide secure and stable environment for workers. </p>
<p>The government needs to improve the delivery of social protection to help vulnerable workers live decently by diminishing their exposure to social and economic risks, and enhance their capacity to manage those risks. </p>
<p>These social protections can come in the forms of health insurance and protection against accidents and illness at work. Scholarships to enable further education and the opportunity to gain skills through apprenticeship and employment training to help workers progress in their careers and increase their income should also be made available. </p>
<p>Workers should also be given assistance to pay housing rent and rates, transportation and other support. </p>
<p>The Indonesian government has established a universal healthcare scheme. Several regencies in different parts of Indonesia have also delivered policies and programs that could potentially <a href="http://arnekalleberg.web.unc.edu/book-2/policy-responses-to-precarious-work-in-asia/">improve workers’ security</a>, like subsidised housing, subsidised treatment at public hospitals, as well as a plan to provide free public transportation for all workers.</p>
<p>But a systematic effort by the government and civil society is needed to ensure that policies and programs target all vulnerable workers, in both the formal and informal sectors, in all parts of Indonesia. </p>
<p>The government should provide incentives to small business to improve worker security. For instance, the government could provide loan packages and tax and duty concessions for small businesses that provide workers with health benefits and other forms of social protections.</p>
<p>Civil society can help workers to organise and build unions. This would provide them with an avenue to voice their aspirations and claim their rights as workers to get a more secure and stable working situation, thus making membership of radical and extremist groups less attractive. </p>
<p>Several unions have undoubtedly worked to advocate to the government to abolish practices contributing to increased <a href="http://arnekalleberg.web.unc.edu/book-2/policy-responses-to-precarious-work-in-asia/">work-related insecurities</a>, like short-term contract work and outsourcing. However, they mostly involve those in the formal sectors, overlooking the informal workers.</p>
<p>Improved stability and security will help the young plan their future and achieve their dreams, reducing and eliminating their anger and anxiety. It would also further reduce the risk of youth being prone to radicalisation. This would make it less easy for extremist groups to attract supporters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56150/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diatyka Widya Permata Yasih does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Indonesia should tackle the job and income insecurities that plague its large young workforce, to help prevent them being lured into joining violent extremist groups.Diatyka Widya Permata Yasih, Lecturer, Department of Sociology, Universitas IndonesiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/548092016-02-28T19:00:52Z2016-02-28T19:00:52ZJobs don’t need to be lousy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112041/original/image-20160218-1233-16vign3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Data from a recent OECD report suggests that to increase the number of jobs, the quality of jobs doesn't need to drop.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">From www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Do people have to put up with poor quality jobs because that’s the only way to get enough jobs? Are the quality and quantity of jobs at odds with each other? </p>
<p>There have been variations on this idea for a while. They say it’s better for people to have a bad job than no job at all. People should be grateful for what they’ve got, at least it’s a job. Or that casual job – it’s a stepping stone to a secure future. </p>
<p>However, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) recent <a href="http://www.oecd.org/employment/labour-stats/Job-quality-OECD.pdf">report on Job Quality</a> suggests that the quality of jobs doesn’t need to be low for there to be plenty of jobs.</p>
<p>For the OECD, job quality is defined by three things. The first is “earnings quality” – how well do jobs pay. That means not just the average level of earnings, but also its distribution. </p>
<p>The second component is “labour market security”. That covers thing like how likely you are to lose your job, and how much you suffer if you do lose it (how long does unemployment last, how high or low are benefits). </p>
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<p>The third is “quality of the working environment”. This is the nature and content of the work performed, time arrangements and workplace relationships, though measured measured by survey questions on ‘job demands’ and ‘job resources’. </p>
<p>So, are the quality and quantity of jobs at odds with each other? </p>
<p>The OECD tested whether the employment rate (people in work as a percentage of the working age population) was related to various measures of job quality.</p>
<p>It found that job quality and the number of jobs can, and tend to, go together. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112221/original/image-20160220-25885-bkrqzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The relations between job quality and employment rates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">OECD: http://www.oecd.org/employment/labour-stats/Job-quality-OECD.pdf</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, when labour market security rose, so did the employment rate. That’s not surprising in one sense, and it was the strongest relationship between job quality and quantity. </p>
<p>But there were other links as well. Improvements in earnings quality also tended to link to improvements in the employment rate. And as the quality of the work environment got better, so too did the employment rate. </p>
<p>Just because these pairs of factors go together does not necessarily mean the first causes the second - it could potentially work both ways – but, as the OECD says, there appear to be “no major trade-offs…but rather, potential synergies”. </p>
<p>In the short term, the report says, things are more complex: the global financial crisis had different effects in different countries. Some had falls in both job numbers and job quality. Others had falls in the first but not the second, perhaps because “the surviving jobs were of better quality in the first place”. </p>
<p>The OECD report also looked at “emerging countries” (fast-growing ones, outside the OECD), like Russia, Brazil, Turkey and China. Job quality is lower in those countries on a number of dimensions: lower wages, higher inequality, greater risk of low-wage employment, and a poorer work environment. </p>
<p>“Informal” (unregulated) jobs in particular are highly insecure, poorly paid and involve long hours. But “informality”, it says, is “hard to escape”. </p>
<p>It’s a sombre reminder that, not only in emerging economies but also in countries like Australia, lousy jobs are not necessarily a stepping stone for better jobs later in people’s careers.</p>
<p>Indeed, across the OECD, even when you account for the “stepping stones”, there’s a lot of inequality in pay. Measuring inequality at a single point in time will produce a higher number than looking at lifetime earnings, because people’s earnings on average increase as they get older. However, inequality is not just a transient feature within a life time: the report says “about three quarters of earnings inequality at a point in time is permanent”.</p>
<p>Job quality is a complex concept, difficult to measure. <a href="http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/ilrreview/vol66/iss4/2/">Other researchers</a> define it <a href="https://www.elgaronline.com/view/nlm-book/9781783475452/C183.xml">differently</a>. The report tries to take account of wage inequality but this can’t account for inequality between the overall incomes of the ultra-rich and of lower wage employees, or of those on pensions. The OECD has focused on some measures for which it could easily collect data from a large number of countries. </p>
<p>The report highlights there is a lot more to success in employment policy than just counting up the number of jobs. Policy makers like to focus on that because it’s easy. However, they need to think more broadly about jobs, and recognise that it’s not necessary to have poor quality jobs in order to have enough jobs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As a university employee, David Peetz has undertaken research over many years with occasional financial support from the Australian Research Council, governments and government agencies from both sides of politics in Australia and overseas, employers and unions for specific projects. Those funded projects do not concern the subject matter of this article.</span></em></p>There doesn’t need to be sub-standard jobs in order for there to be enough jobs to go around.David Peetz, Professor of Employment Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/549822016-02-19T13:16:24Z2016-02-19T13:16:24ZWhy we stick our heads in the sand about the risk of unemployment<p>The British job market is looking refreshingly stable: there were fewer unemployed people in the UK at the end of 2015 than at any time since 2005. The <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/february-2016/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-8--Unemployment">latest figures</a> from the Office of National Statistics showed that the unemployment rate for over-16s was 5.1% between October and December 2015, down from 5.7% a year earlier. </p>
<p>In such times of increasing employment – there were 521,000 more people in work at the end of 2015 than the end of 2014 – it can be easy to stop thinking about the risk of being laid off. Yet <a href="http://wes.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/02/23/0950017014556411">research</a> carried out by my colleagues and I has found that many couples ignore the negative signs, preferring to hope that they will not be affected by job loss. They act only when all hopes are dashed.</p>
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<p>It’s <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2011.00719.x/abstract">long been considered</a> that spouses (usually women) can act as a reserve army of workers, stepping in to pick up paid work when their partner loses their job. </p>
<p>But we found that even during times of economic crisis, this doesn’t always happen. Personal preferences, domestic and labour market constraints and issues around gender norms act are all factors that stop spouses from stepping into their partner’s role as the breadwinner – except in the extreme situation where the financial survival of the household is under threat.</p>
<p>Through in-depth interviews with 17 couples, we explored the ways in which they coped during times of squeezed budgets and economic uncertainty. The sample was carefully drawn from <a href="https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/about/innovation-panel">Understanding Society’s Innovation Panel</a>, an annual longitudinal survey that gathers a wealth of information about how the lives of people in UK households evolve. </p>
<p>From the survey data we could tell if couples had experienced some form of job loss during the period between 2008 and 2011 – arguably the worst years of the financial crisis. The sample was selected to reflect a diverse range of household and family profiles, including couples with or without children and from a range of incomes across the UK. </p>
<h2>In denial</h2>
<p>The findings suggest that people can be rather unprepared for losing their job, despite quite strong indicators that it is likely to happen. Even where participants talked about the prospect of redundancy as inexorable, they often did nothing until redundancy notices were served and spoke of their “shock” that it had actually happened. </p>
<p>One woman we interviewed, Gail, <a href="http://wes.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/02/23/0950017014556411">spoke about her husband</a>, who had been an executive in the construction industry, losing his job as: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It was inevitable. They were going to sort of get rid of him … I think he sort of got an inkling it was going to happen, but of course you go on and you think, ‘Oh, it might blow over,’ but you get a gut feeling … So I would say probably about four weeks, maybe a couple of months absolute, you know, before we knew. But even then, you know, we didn’t know. And when it did happen, we were absolutely gobsmacked.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Participants also told us how although they could see others around them losing their jobs, they felt that they would somehow be protected from job cuts. Roger, a technical manager, <a href="https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/iser/2013-13">spoke with some annoyance</a> and bewilderment about how he lost his job while others kept theirs. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Well, the department … they kept cutting, cutting, cutting … but I just felt that, ‘Hang on. It shouldn’t have been me.’ … So I thought right up to a month before that it was going to be … I was going to be the survivor and the other guy was going to go. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Got a job? Keep it</h2>
<p>For some of those currently in work, the spectre of redundancy could be very evident – but staying put was seen as preferable to jumping ship. Ian, an IT manager, <a href="http://wes.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/02/23/0950017014556411">explained</a> this in the sense of better the devil you know: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>You’ve got the choice of either hoping things are going to get better or decide there’s some better opportunities elsewhere, … at the moment, I’m just hanging in there. I was put at risk redundancy-wise, I’ve just come through that and it could well be that if things don’t get better that will happen again. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ian had a job, whereas he knew a lot of people in his line of work that didn’t. As he saw it, his best option was to keep his head down, work hard and hope for the best.</p>
<p>Almost by definition, being unemployed is distressing. It means you are ready to work, looking for a job but can’t find one. To handle any anxieties about the likelihood of this happening, people might prefer to overoptimistically rate their chances of keeping hold of their job. </p>
<p>In times of recession people can also feel particularly vulnerable to the threat of redundancy but choose to stick with what they have, rather than look for a more secure job, because it’s perceived as their best option among a set of poor alternatives.</p>
<p>Despite the recent falls in the unemployment rate, the figures show that being out of work is still an experience faced by many. As our research looked at unemployment in times of recession, it is not clear whether people take the same approach when the economic outlook is more positive – but we should be alert to the fact that they might. If a shock factor exists in times of recession – how much more shocking might it be to lose your job during relative prosperity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was supported by funding from the ESRC under the grant ‘Understanding the impact of recession on labour market behaviour in Britain’ (grant number ES/I037628/1).
Understanding Society is funded by the ESRC (grant number ES/H029745/1)</span></em></p>Many couples ignore the warning signs that one of them might be about to lose their job.Karon Gush, Senior Research Officer, Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/339062015-01-01T21:05:14Z2015-01-01T21:05:14ZJob survival in the age of robots and intelligent machines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67277/original/image-20141215-5284-1qhk36l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How to protect your employment prospects as robots take over more jobs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/isherwoodchris/6917253693">Flickr/Chris Isherwood</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Australia, there are reports that up to <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/report_to_jobs_threatened_by_rise_mr0g5CI1rEbvRKMcBFTzJJ">half a million</a> of existing jobs could be taken over by robotics or machines run by artificial intelligence.</p>
<p>So with smarter computers taking on more of the work that people currently do, we are left to wonder what jobs there might be left for us humans.</p>
<h2>Could a robot do your job?</h2>
<p>Almost any job that can be described as a “process” could be done by a computer, whether that computer is housed in a robot or embedded somewhere out of sight.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67279/original/image-20141215-24297-6jsbmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Robots have already taken over many jobs – here 1,100 robots in a new car manufacturing plant in the US.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chryslergroup/13194291604">Flickr/Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Corporate</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So if intelligent machines can take over many of the jobs of today, what can you do to ensure your job prospects in the future?</p>
<p>Some jobs will always be done by people. The reasons can vary greatly: economic, social, nostalgic or simply not practical for robots to do.</p>
<p>If we consider that many of the jobs of the future have not been invented yet, we cannot be sure what those future jobs will actually look like, though futurists are not shy of making <a href="http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2011/11/55-jobs-of-the-future/">predictions</a>. </p>
<p>While we may not know what outward form these jobs will take, we can still make a catalogue of the generic skills that will be valued highly. </p>
<h2>Thinking skills for future workers</h2>
<p>In his book <a href="http://howardgardner.com/five-minds-for-the-future/">Five Minds for the Future</a>, the Harvard professor Howard Gardner makes the case for cultivating a disciplined mind, being someone who can bring their attention to a laser-like focus and drill down to the essence of a subject, perceiving the simple truth of it.</p>
<p>Then to take this clarity to the next level by combining multiple ideas in new ways to create something interesting and perhaps useful. This done by the synthesising mind and the creative mind. </p>
<p>Gardner describes the respectful mind that values diversity in people and looks for positive ways to interact, thus overcoming the “us and them” instinct that still creates so much conflict in human affairs.</p>
<p>Building on this is the ethical mind, of one who thinks about the big picture and how their personal needs can be brought into alignment with the greater good of the community. Skills for a globally connected world.</p>
<h2>Mastering the new media</h2>
<p>The future will see a host of new technology for creating and communicating content. In-demand workers will be able to critically assess this content and find ways to communicate it to good effect.</p>
<p>Communication skills have always been important and will remain so. </p>
<p>Knowing how to deal with large data sets will be a handy skill; finding ways to make sense of the data and turn it into useful information.</p>
<p>This could involve devising new, multi-disciplinary and perhaps unconventional approaches to the challenges. </p>
<h2>Managing the information</h2>
<p>We already filter a deluge of information every day. Our grandparents were lucky, they had to deal with a lot less.</p>
<p>People will need to be even better at managing the cognitive load, they will have the thinking skills to filter the deluge and find optimum solutions to problems. </p>
<p>When good collaboration tools exist for virtual project teams, there are few limits to what can be achieved. More projects will be done by such teams because the technology that supports them is getting better every year. </p>
<p>It allows the right people, with the right skills at the right price to be employed, regardless of where they live. </p>
<p>So it will be that people with the right <a href="http://www.reliableplant.com/Read/27807/Virtual-teams-are-different">virtual team skills</a> will be in high demand. </p>
<h2>Virtual environments</h2>
<p>Speaking of the virtual, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/04/opinion/brooks-what-machines-cant-do.html">Procedural Architects</a> will be at a premium. These are people who can design virtual environments and experiences that allow people to get things done and perhaps have some fun.</p>
<p>This is what the minds behind Google, Youtube, Facebook, Amazon, Wikipedia, Twitter, eBay, LinkedIn, Pinterest, WordPress and MSN have done. </p>
<p>All of this leads us to the question; what actual jobs are likely to be in demand?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67281/original/image-20141215-24313-sqh6ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We are already developing robots to take on new challenges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/stanfordcis/7069488569">Flickr/Stanford Center for Internet and Society</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Employment specialists compile lists of what they think will be in demand, based on trends. These are some of the jobs that appear on multiple lists. </p>
<p>The IT sector is likely to need:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>information security analysts, big data analysts, artificial intelligence and robotics specialists, applications developers for mobile devices, web developers, database administrators, business intelligence analysts, gamification designers, business/systems analysts and ethicists. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other disciplines, there will be a need for:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>engineers of all kinds, accountants, lawyers, financial advisers, project managers, specialist doctors, nurses, pharmacists, physical therapists, veterinarians, psychologists, health services managers, schoolteachers, market research analysts, sales reps and construction workers (particularly bricklayers and carpenters).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Both lists are not exhaustive. </p>
<p>On the downside, occupations likely to shrink in demand include:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>agricultural workers, postal service workers, sewing machine operators, switchboard operators, data entry clerks and word processor typists. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The bottom line</h2>
<p>To position yourself favourably for the jobs of the future, become someone who can look at problems in unorthodox ways, seeing different angles and finding workable solutions.</p>
<p>Be a multi-disciplinary, insatiably curious person who knows how to use the tools to model ideas and create prototypes. </p>
<p>Possessed of an open mind and few fixed ideas about how things should be done, you nonetheless have a strong conscience and can operate outside of your comfort zone to achieve win-win outcomes. You are known for your integrity and resilience. </p>
<p>All of these qualities can be cultivated or perhaps rediscovered, since children often exhibit them in abundance. They have always been the way for creative, high-achieving people and they are still the way today and into the future. </p>
<p>In the brave new world of the coming age of intelligent machines, it is these essentially human qualities that will be more important than ever. Some things will never change because human nature is what it is.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was edited on January 6, 2015, to remove a reference to a claim that 65% of jobs in 10 years time have not yet been invented. This widely reported claim was attributed to a US Department of Labor document but the figure does not appear in that document.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In Australia, there are reports that up to half a million of existing jobs could be taken over by robotics or machines run by artificial intelligence. So with smarter computers taking on more of the work…David Tuffley, Lecturer in Applied Ethics and Socio-Technical Studies, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231382014-02-14T03:08:53Z2014-02-14T03:08:53ZThe story of steel maps the job future for car workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41405/original/qxksdhr7-1392243946.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers who lost jobs at the Port Kembla Steelworks have faced mixed fortunes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Tony Abbott is right when he describes Australia’s car industry workers as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3942002.htm">“highly skilled people, adaptable people”</a>. He has also been saying this week that the departure of Toyota and Holden creates an opportunity for automotive workers to transition from <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3942002.htm">“good jobs to better jobs”</a>. </p>
<p>How realistic is this? What jobs can ex-car industry workers expect and will they make the best use of their skills? And where will these jobs be located? </p>
<p>The answer will depend on what resources are made available to support workers through the transition, and to encourage other employers to recruit them. We must not replicate the extremes of <a href="http://citiesmcr.wordpress.com/2014/01/26/bailing-on-detroit/">Detroit</a>, where a city left without government support went into meltdown. </p>
<p>We also need to take a personalised approach: be smart about the skills and capacities of individual automotive workers who have lost jobs. While the car industry may no longer remain viable in Australia, the workers’ skills are far from redundant. </p>
<p>We are currently interviewing ex-steelworkers who lost their jobs in 2011 <a href="http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/636346/800-jobs-to-go-at-port-kembla-steelworks/">after workforce downsizing in Wollongong</a>. </p>
<p>Their stories suggest finding new jobs, or even better jobs, will be a matter of macroeconomics, but also individual circumstances. A policy approach for car workers founded on genuine care will be key.</p>
<h2>Learning from other recent cases</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/11/victoria-looks-newcastle-clues-post-toyota-future">Newcastle has been much discussed this week</a>. There, overall unemployment levels were kept low despite the closure of the city’s steelworks. Some found work in well-paid jobs in mining and construction; other replacement jobs were more precarious. </p>
<p>Overall jobs growth has been fuelled by general prosperity, in sectors like aged care, hospitality and creative industries. The community and civic leaders also cared deeply about the individuals and their fate.</p>
<p>Experiences in Wollongong provide another comparison. Fortunes have been mixed, but local social bonds and an ethic of care are immense resources. </p>
<p>One of our participants, Bob, aged 52, has worked at the steelworks for 35 years. He left high school and went straight into a job making steel in Port Kembla. All his family live in the region. His job involved making steel for railway lines, and later, slab steel. He now drives a crane. </p>
<p>He has no trade qualification and so is pessimistic about finding another well-paid job in the Illawarra. He believes he will have to get a courier job or “get by” from a redundancy package. After the 2011 redundancies he witnessed many close friends leave the plant. They found other jobs in Sydney. </p>
<p>Those of an older generation have taken early retirement, living off their redundancy packages. </p>
<h2>Need work, must travel</h2>
<p>Many ex-steelworkers in Wollongong are able to find work, but at a distance from family and communities. We are documenting how this impacts their social networks and personal bonds as people migrate elsewhere or commute long hours in order to work. The same thing happened with <a href="http://theconversation.com/mitsubishis-silver-lining-for-holden-workers-21425">Mitsubishi workers in Adelaide</a> who lost their jobs after that plant’s closure. </p>
<p>Younger Wollongong workers in particular are prepared to commute or move, taking up jobs in Sydney in a range of industries including mining, construction and transport. The workforce is now more mobile, doing the daily commute to where jobs can be found. </p>
<p>Some have become part of the increasingly significant fly-in, fly-out workforce based in Wollongong. Others have found work elsewhere in the region, <a href="http://www.soacconference.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Gibson-Economy.pdf">in specific places and sectors where manufacturing jobs have grown</a>.</p>
<p>Another ex-steelworker, Jeff, is a 43-year old with an engineering management background, who has worked at the steelworks for over two decades. He has been able to get job interviews and offers, and feels much more optimistic about the future because he knows he can find alternative employment. </p>
<p>But the work isn’t in the Illawarra. He is now deciding what to do. Contemplating having to commute for work, Jeff is worried about being away from his family and impacts that will have on his kids and partner.</p>
<h2>Other manufacturing job options</h2>
<p>There are still options for car workers elsewhere in manufacturing, especially for those willing to move or travel. </p>
<p>Boeing has a large manufacturing plant in Melbourne, the largest outside of North America. Here in Wollongong too, small aeronautical engineering companies are making use of high quality, highly skilled labour to make custom parts for the Royal Flying Doctor Service and other specialist users. </p>
<p>Some will get jobs in smaller firms making high-tech and specialised manufactured goods, such as trucks (which are still made in Australia), mining equipment and military hardware. </p>
<p>As many <a href="http://theconversation.com/losing-the-car-industry-means-we-risk-our-technology-23082">commentators have suggested</a> in the past few days, Australia’s automotive sector (through R&D) has been innovative with materials and technologies, in areas like carbon fibre, automatic detection and ceramics for braking systems that have applications for other industries. <a href="https://theconversation.com/graphene-can-pave-the-way-for-australian-manufacturing-21993">Manufacturing innovations will generate new job opportunities</a>. </p>
<p>Another lesson from Wollongong is for governments to be bold, making significant <a href="http://www.iaccelerate.com.au">investments</a> in regional development and research initiatives that leverage upon, rather than reject, manufacturing innovations, skills and capacities.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, in the immediate case of car industry workers there is going to be pain. <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-departure-of-toyota-holden-and-ford-really-means-for-workers-23137">Staggering the timing of closures</a> with the interests of workers in mind will make a difference. Many jobs will have to be in other parts of the economy, and a <a href="http://theconversation.com/mitsubishis-silver-lining-for-holden-workers-21425">“job for a life”</a> is now much harder to find.</p>
<h2>Quality work matters</h2>
<p>There is one more lesson too: what is the quality and actual nature of the work being undertaken? </p>
<p>Greg is 29 and has worked in steel for 11 years. His daily duties include organising contract workers to perform certain jobs. Greg says that experience and skill can be applied to other industries outside of steel or manufacturing. He’s an electrician by trade and is confident he can use his knowledge and skills to find an alternative job. </p>
<p>But he may have to find a job doing something he’s just not passionate about. He says it gives him a thrill to see steel made and being put into cars and buildings. </p>
<p>No doubt car workers feel the same sense of pride and pleasure in seeing the physical fruits of their labour. Such emotions are not a mere externality to this debate. As well as finding alternative sources of work for ex-car workers, that work needs to be rewarding and enable individual people to best use their considerable skills and creativity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Gibson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Warren does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Tony Abbott is right when he describes Australia’s car industry workers as “highly skilled people, adaptable people”. He has also been saying this week that the departure of Toyota and Holden…Chris Gibson, Professor of Human Geography, University of WollongongAndrew Warren, Lecturer in Geography and Planning, University of New EnglandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231372014-02-12T19:33:51Z2014-02-12T19:33:51ZWhat the departure of Toyota, Holden and Ford really means for workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41355/original/xjyp9t69-1392201158.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The impact of job loss on car industry workers is multifaceted, and those arguing 'better jobs' will emerge could be fooling themselves.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>People change jobs constantly, and the jobs lost in car manufacturing closures are insignificant in the context of total job changes - no different to everyday job changes. So say some commentators opining on the end of car manufacturing in Australia. The problem is, they’re wrong.</p>
<p>In reality, car industry job losses will be concentrated in particular localities and particular occupations at particular times, creating concentrated pools of workers with similar skills and experiences vying against each other for the relatively narrow range of jobs that suit their skills and experiences. This creates a long job queue that will take a long time to disperse. </p>
<p>Only the most highly skilled and well-connected among the job losers will find work in jobs that use their existing skill complements. There’s often a loss of skill, a loss of income in the period between job loss and eventual reemployment, and lifetime income reduction as a consequence of starting again at the bottom rung in a new occupation. </p>
<p>A small number of workers will flourish and do better than in their previous job; this was the case with about 2% of clothing workers but perhaps 20% of Ansett workers, for example. The concentrated nature of these job losses demands intervention to minimise adverse social impacts.</p>
<p>Potentially, job losses include not only the workers who are directly affected in car and component manufacturing plants but also workers in all those firms that supply those plants, from accountants to engineering consultants to cleaners, not to mention the local stores, lunch bars and services that workers buy with their wages. </p>
<p>The numbers of businesses that rely on auto-related work is much larger now than it was in the 1980s after tariff cuts because in the 1980s restructuring for “lean” production outsourced non-core activities. Some submissions to the Productivity Commission last year put these employment “multipliers” at 4.4 in South Australia, suggesting that for every 1,000 car maker jobs lost, 4,400 other jobs will disappear. In Detroit, the automotive multiplier effect has been estimated at 3.6. Note that the Productivity Commission rejected the multiplier effects argument as a justification for industry assistance, but based that conclusion on the questionable authority of a staff research paper. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41358/original/y2n94vvv-1392202048.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the departure of any major industry player comes the demise of support businesses, like this one at a former Ansett terminal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Which workers will be hardest hit?</h2>
<p>Workers who lose their jobs at a time of economic expansion fare much better than those who lose their jobs in a recession, when vacancies are scarce. The Mitsubishi and Ansett airlines workers, for example, fared better in the longer term than automotive workers who lost their jobs in the tariff-reduction related restructuring during the 1990-92 recession. </p>
<p>It would be helpful if policymakers tried to manage closure dates to avoid automotive job losses occurring at the same time as anticipated job losses in mining construction. At a minimum, the government needs to negotiate to ensure that Holden, Ford and Toyota close at different times. If Ford closed in 2016, Holden in 2017 and Toyota in 2018, the labour market would have longer to sift out with fewer casualties.</p>
<p>The employment prospects of automotive workers who are over 45 year of age are bleak regardless of their skills. Those with poor English language skills will also face considerable challenges. Policy interventions need to be sensitive to established social structures, and not assume that workers will be in position to find jobs outside an expected stereotypical range.</p>
<p>Retrenched workers that live in neighbourhoods with large numbers of unemployed workers – that is, in automotive sector feeder suburbs – will have poorer outcomes in the longer term. Younger workers without dependents or financial commitments are likely to relocate, but those with teenage children or a working spouse will face insurmountable barriers to relocation. Some marriages will end as the need to work wins out over family. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41356/original/62m2nwps-1392201396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abandoned factories are a byproduct of the demise of Australian manufacturing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In previous large-scale retrenchments, housing prices have fallen in the most severely affected neighbourhoods as housing demand stalls. Those who relocate will realise a financial loss. In addition to the costs of relocation, moving to a location where jobs are more plentiful is likely to involve higher housing costs. Costs aside, people with strong community links are disinclined to relocate and will accept diminished occupational status instead. This outcome is a loss to the nation.</p>
<p>Those workers who are financially secure or who have a spouse in full-time work can usually afford to wait for an opportunity that maximises their use of skills and accords with their interests. Those in financial stress will have no option but to take any job that provides income. But careers have trajectories and the “any job” option is not the best option for sustaining a career. </p>
<p>Social security rules – on assets and savings - are going to penalise those former autoworkers that have saved and invested; while former colleagues who lived from week to week will qualify for full if meagre benefits. Free financial counselling for autoworkers before they finish work would help them know their position and negotiate with financial institutions regarding mortgages and loans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41359/original/z29csfdt-1392202356.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some Ansett workers were able to find better jobs, but others did not fare as well.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Facing up to harsh realities</h2>
<p>While policymakers like to imagine that workers in “transitional” labour markets are accustomed to and comfortable with job change, in fact there will be significant numbers of mostly loyal and long-serving workers for whom job loss is going to trigger a significant personal crisis, perhaps leading to suicide. </p>
<p>The circumstances of the retrenchment have a lasting impact on the outcomes of mass job losses. In a nutshell, those people who believe that they have been mistreated or singled out in some way have significantly poorer outcomes. Dramatic and unexpected shutdowns and lock-outs actively produce poorer outcomes, especially for people who took out a loan the week before the event. The longer the warning of impending closure, the more time people have to adjust to the idea and plan for new circumstances before they have to cope with the reality. </p>
<p>The people most at risk – as the case of Ansett airlines demonstrated – are those who view their workplace as a family and rely on workmates for social interaction. A second highly vulnerable group are employers in failing small firms who feel responsible for their workforce and carry the weight of failure. Sadly, loyalty and commitment puts workers at more risk. In the Ansett case, self-help groups of former workmates were useful. The establishment of automotive “men’s sheds” in affected suburbs would provide a venue for maintaining attachments and connecting to support services. </p>
<p>The adjustment has already started. The most able workers are going to be headhunted or will find better jobs quite quickly. If they are replaced, the replacement will be of a lower calibre. By the time of closure, remaining workers are likely to be less attractive to employers. </p>
<p>Some component manufacturers will be searching to reorient their businesses and develop export markets, but many others will be working out ways to transfer the wealth held in their business to their personal accounts and then exit for the least cost. As component suppliers exit, supply chains will be disrupted. But lots of small closures are better in labour market terms than three major events, so this process has its benefits. </p>
<p>People who lose their jobs unexpectedly are likely to take about six weeks to come to terms with their situation; during that time many will feel paralysed and unable to search for work effectively. Between six weeks and six months the more employable among the workforce will have found work, although often in less skilled jobs. Between six and twelve months the likelihood of finding work diminishes quickly, although percentages are boosted by the reemployment of affluent higher skilled workers who take longer to find and commence suitable work. After a year the chances of finding work are poor and people tend to leave the workforce, often permanently. In short, the employment impacts of unemployment get worse over time (this is called hysteresis), which is the reason why the metaphor of “recovery” from job loss, as though it was an illness, is usually misplaced. </p>
<h2>Is retraining a panacea?</h2>
<p>Retraining is a policy intervention with well documented benefits. But the options for retraining are not the same now as they were in the 1990s. The TAFE system is much diminished and those training for less skilled jobs would incur high costs unless there is ample assistance. People who have been out of the education system for a long time will need introductory preparatory courses before they can tackle skill retraining. </p>
<p>In the case of clothing workers, two years in retraining for low level vocational skills did not improve employment prospects but instead separated former workers from the labour market. The best retraining outcomes are achieved by workers who are able to turn a pre-existing hobby into a vocation (horse-training and scuba-diving, for example) and those who can upgrade existing skills at tertiary level. </p>
<p>Crucially, if retraining is to build on workers’ pre-existing skills, then it should not be targeted in “skills-in-demand” areas. Experience shows that taking groups of retrenched workers and training them all in the same occupation (security guard, forklift driver) puts them exactly where they started: competing with each other for a small number of jobs.</p>
<h2>Has anyone seen the ‘better jobs’?</h2>
<p>Some commentators have characterised the car industry closures as unleashing a round of creative destruction that will drive the growth of new industries and create new jobs. For that to be true, it is necessary to assume that existing investments in the car industry somehow inhibit the growth of other “better” opportunities. This is bunkum: if there were investment opportunities in these other sectors, the investments would have happened regardless of the automotive sector. In fact, spillover arguments would suggest such investments are now less likely without the critical mass of the automotive sector. </p>
<p>There is currently no obvious new job generator in the Australian economy except for domestic construction and infrastructure projects. This does not bode well for the future in Victoria and South Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23137/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Weller's work on retrenchment outcomes in the clothing and airlines industries was funded by the Australian Research Council and the Victorian Government. In 2002 she contributed to the Howard government's redundancy policy and in 2004 she provided background material for the ACTU's test case on redundancy and termination. </span></em></p>People change jobs constantly, and the jobs lost in car manufacturing closures are insignificant in the context of total job changes - no different to everyday job changes. So say some commentators opining…Sally Weller, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/220192014-01-14T13:39:33Z2014-01-14T13:39:33ZThanks academia, soon I will join a generation of jobless PhDs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39042/original/vd3pbbjd-1389697396.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Just one more experiment to get that professorship.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">flseagrant</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>My friend leaned forward over the table where we were having dinner. It was a loud, busy restaurant, but she lowered her voice conspiratorially and her eyes took on a sheen of excitement, tinged with fear. “I accepted a position working with a non-profit in the South American rainforest after I graduate, but I haven’t told my professor yet. If I already have a job lined up, he can’t stop me, right?”</p>
<p>At first I considered this apprehensive attitude to be unique and maybe unwarranted. Why wouldn’t a PhD student want to tell her professor, with whom she works so closely and who supervises her PhD, about such a unique job opportunity? But over time, I saw this scenario again and again, and not without reason. Classmates were told they would not be allowed to pursue non-academic opportunities. Professors scorned the idea of being a “bench monkey” at a private biotech company. Internship programmes advertised to us during our PhD interviews were quickly retracted and made to disappear as soon as any real interest was shown.</p>
<p>After entering a PhD programme, it became obvious that when in academia, the only respectable future job is in academia. Becoming an academic is typically considered the holy grail for PhDs in the sciences. Certainly, one can see how the position is an honourable one. To dedicate one’s life to the pursuit of science and discovery, for the sake of knowledge. And with tenure appointment comes the freedom to pursue the answers to the questions you care about, instead of the questions the stockholders of a company care about.</p>
<p>But I have major issues with the view that academia as the be all and end all of science careers. The drive by the US to produce more scientists began around 1940-1950. Spurred by events such as the Manhattan Project and later the space race, increased funding for science and technology drove a perceived need for more scientists. More recently, reports and testimony from <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=does-the-us-produce-too-m">the likes of Bill Gates</a> have continued to encourage the <a href="http://www.cjr.org/reports/what_scientist_shortage.php?page=all">production of more scientists</a>. Nevertheless, as numerous recent articles have warned, the population of science PhDs is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/us-pushes-for-more-scientists-but-the-jobs-arent-there/2012/07/07/gJQAZJpQUW_story.html">steadily growing</a>, while the number of available faculty jobs increases at a pace <a href="http://www.nature.com/nbt/journal/v31/n10/fig_tab/nbt.2706_F1.html">only a snail could envy</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39040/original/krq2d5b3-1389696743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39040/original/krq2d5b3-1389696743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39040/original/krq2d5b3-1389696743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39040/original/krq2d5b3-1389696743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39040/original/krq2d5b3-1389696743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39040/original/krq2d5b3-1389696743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/39040/original/krq2d5b3-1389696743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nature Biotechnology</span></span>
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<p>As a result, the competition for faculty positions has become incredibly competitive, and PhDs end up languishing in post-doctoral positions for more than ten years, many never attaining a full-time academic position. Yet, <a href="http://www.nature.com/naturejobs/science/articles/10.1038/nj7343-381a">instead of universities taking precautions</a> and educating their students in a way that would provide them with the skills to be competitive in job markets outside of academia, these institutions continue to maintain a traditional instructional framework. While a PhD programme provides experience in skills such as project management, problem solving, and communication, students still come out with a narrow window of extremely specialised knowledge and techniques that are often <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/17723223">not transferable to the job market</a>.</p>
<p>What can schools do to produce more well-rounded PhDs? Progress would be to offer courses that train students in a wide variety of skills. This would make them more attractive to potential employers. Additional courses in broader topics such as writing and business would also be beneficial. But classes can only provide limited experience; direct, hands-on training is also vital. Therefore, departments should also provide infrastructure and support that provides opportunities for internships in a range of companies.</p>
<p>With plunges in funding for science research and increases in the number of people earning their PhDs, advances in science may need to come from sources such as private research facilities like Seattle’s Allen Brain Institute. Other groups, such as Microryza and Sage Bionetworks, have started taking advantage of public interest and participation for funding and brainpower. It is becoming clear that traditional research is turning into a broken system.</p>
<p>I think it is time for a change of attitude towards acceptance of non-academic careers. Progress begins with the professors; they must become more open-minded to students’ pursuit of alternate career opportunities. This includes allowing them to devote some of their time to cultivating skills and relationships that will provide a solid foundation upon which to find the right job after graduating. Students, like my aforementioned friend, should not have reservations about discussing their job future with professors.</p>
<p>In the dynamic job market for scientists where there is an increasing amount of competition for fewer academic positions, it is important for both professors and departments to provide support for their students. This includes changing the general attitude towards jobs that are not in academia, and providing programs that give students opportunities to gain skills and experience that will help them have a fulfilling career in science.</p>
<p>What is my next step towards finding my ideal job? Telling my professor I don’t want to be like him…</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article first appeared on <a href="http://demythify.com/?p=106">Amanda Chung’s blog</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Chung does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>My friend leaned forward over the table where we were having dinner. It was a loud, busy restaurant, but she lowered her voice conspiratorially and her eyes took on a sheen of excitement, tinged with fear…Amanda Chung, PhD student, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.