tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/josh-frydenberg-6687/articlesJosh Frydenberg – The Conversation2023-09-21T06:47:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140682023-09-21T06:47:52Z2023-09-21T06:47:52ZView from The Hill: Josh Frydenberg puts political ambition aside to remain in business<p>Former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s decision to put a business future before an attempted political revival is a blow for the Liberal Party, but a relief for the teal member for Kooyong, Monique Ryan. </p>
<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton might regard his former colleague’s decision with mixed feelings. Frydenberg would probably have increased the chance of the Liberals regaining Kooyong in 2025. </p>
<p>But if elected, Frydenberg would have become an obvious choice for party leader (on the very reasonable assumption the Coalition was still in opposition). More immediately, speculation about that prospect would have dogged Dutton in the run-up to the next election.</p>
<p>For Frydenberg, this must be a bittersweet moment. As he said in a note to Kooyong branch members, telling them he wouldn’t be seeking preselection, “It is a difficult decision and one I have been weighing up for some time”.</p>
<p>His aspiration to be prime minister has been long-standing, strong and obvious. He was indefatigable as treasurer, a quality shared by his successor Jim Chalmers, who also aspires to the top job. But business gives him a bright, lucrative, family-friendly future, without the pressures and uncertainties that politics bring. </p>
<p>Anyway, winning back Kooyong (which Frydenberg held from 2010-22) would have been no shoo-in. Ryan is regarded as more vulnerable than some of the other teals, but the demographics of the seat have been changing and there is a boundary redistribution to come. </p>
<p>After joining Goldman Sachs following his defeat, Frydenberg will now become chairman of the investment bank in Australia and New Zealand. </p>
<p>The firm said: </p>
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<p>In this role, Josh will focus on further deepening and strengthening client coverage across the A/NZ region. He will continue to offer advice on economic and geopolitical issues as the firm’s senior regional advisor for Asia Pacific.</p>
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<p>While it’s possible Frydenberg, 52, might consider running in the election after next – and he hasn’t closed off that option – it would seem unlikely. </p>
<p>The 2025 election was the logical time to try for a comeback. A term on and much water will have gone under the bridge – in his own life and in politics. The Liberal line-up would be different, the road to leadership potentially harder. Perhaps the fight in Kooyong (or some other seat, if that were back in Liberal hands) would be more difficult.</p>
<p>Frydenberg became of a victim of the teal wave. He had stuck very close to former Prime Minister Scott Morrison: loyalty is an admirable character trait but not always a political advantage. </p>
<p>If he, rather than Morrison, had led into the last election, the Coalition might have done better; on the other hand, a leadership change carries its own costs. In any case, it was never on the cards. </p>
<p>Frydenberg, a conservative who became more centrist as time went on, was treasurer in extraordinary circumstances, confronting the economic challenges and demands imposed by the pandemic. He oversaw the wage subsidy JobKeeper program that, while it had its flaws which have seemed more significant in retrospect, was critical to keeping many businesses and workers afloat. </p>
<p>Independent economist Chris Richardson says JobKeeper “wasn’t perfect but it was bloody beautiful”. He praises Frydenberg’s COVID performance, saying, </p>
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<p>The key thing was to make the wheels of government move faster than they had ever moved before. I give him high marks for that. </p>
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<p>Another independent economist, Saul Eslake, agrees Frydenberg did a good job during COVID, with the only serious mistake being in some of the detail of JobKeeper.</p>
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<p>He was right to throw overboard all the Coalition rhetoric about debt and deficit. He was honest, thoughtful and consultative. </p>
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<p>Morrison, Eslake says, was a “huge handicap” because he was not an effective communicator of economic ideas, “in contrast to the prime ministers who backed Paul Keating and Peter Costello, the two most successful treasurers of recent history”. </p>
<p>But for the pandemic, Frydenberg would have seen the budget back in black. That achievement now belongs to Chalmers, who is savouring the moment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214068/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While it’s possible Frydenberg, 52, might consider running in the election after next, it would seem unlikely. The 2025 election was the logical time to try for a comeback bidMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052052023-05-08T12:31:36Z2023-05-08T12:31:36ZNow it’s Labor promising the budget will be (briefly) back in black<p>Tuesday’s budget will forecast a surplus of about $4 billion for this financial year – the first Commonwealth budget surplus in a decade and a half.</p>
<p>The budget projects an improvement of more than $143 billion over four years to 2025-26 compared to the Coalition’s final budget, brought down in March last year by Josh Frydenberg. </p>
<p>The budget was last in surplus in Coalition Prime Minister John Howard’s final year – 2007-2008. After the global financial crisis threw it into deficit, in 2019 Frydenberg declared the budget “back in black”, but the COVID support measures meant the promised surplus was never achieved. </p>
<p>While the budget is forecast to be in deficit over the remaining years of the forward estimates, the deficits will be smaller in each year than previously forecast. </p>
<p>Revenue will be boosted by stronger than expected employment growth and record-high commodity prices, both of which are expected to ease off in future years.</p>
<p>The government will return to the bottom line 82% of revenue upgrades in this budget and 87% across its first two budgets. It says this compares to an average of about 40% under the former government and 30% under the Howard government. </p>
<p>Immediately after landing back in Australia after his trip to the coronation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed the budget will widen access to the parenting payment (single) by raising the cut off point from when the parent’s youngest child is eight to the age of 14.</p>
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<p>At present these parents – overwhelmingly women, and often victims of domestic violence – have to move to the lower JobKeeper payment when their youngest turns eight. The change will mean eligible single parents now on JobSeeker will receive an increase of $176.90 a fortnight. </p>
<p>The issue has been personally important to Albanese, who was raised by a single mother on the disability pension. Albanese was opposed to the Gillard’s government’s decision to tighten eligibility, which followed an earlier decision to restrict parenting payments by the Howard government.</p>
<p>Albanese said the government’s action “will make a big and immediate difference for tens of thousands of mums, dads and children right around Australia”. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-budget-centrepiece-will-be-14-6-billion-cost-of-living-package-205192">View from The Hill: Budget 'centrepiece' will be $14.6 billion cost-of-living package</a>
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<p>The change, which requires legislation, is due to start from September 20. It will cost $1.9 billion through to 2026-27. Some 57,000 single principal carers will benefit, including 52,000 women. </p>
<p>The government last week announced it would scrap from next year the controversial ParentsNext program which imposed obligations for mothers with very young children. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/controversial-parentsnext-program-to-be-scrapped-next-year-205037">Controversial ParentsNext program to be scrapped next year</a>
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<p>Among the budget’s welfare decisions, JobSeeker is expected to be raised by a modest amount. </p>
<p>The budget will contain $17.8 billion in savings and re-purposing. This will take total savings across Labor’s first two budgets to $40 billion. </p>
<p>The budget’s centrepiece is a package of measures designed to ease cost-of-living pressures, costing a $14.6 billion over four years, including assistance for more than 500,000 households with their energy bills. </p>
<p>In an upbeat address to an enthusiastic Labor caucus meeting Albanese said the budget would be “in the best tradition of the Australian Labor Party”. </p>
<p>It would deal with immediate challenges, “but always with the eye on the future, on the medium and long term, to make sure that we’re delivering, laying those foundations for a better future that we promised”.</p>
<p>He said as well as not leaving people behind, the budget would be about the “aspiration of people for a better life”. </p>
<p>The caucus welcomed the new member for Aston, Mary Doyle, who took the seat from the opposition at the April 1 byelection.</p>
<p>The government is focused on minimising the inflationary effect of budget measures, with Albanese telling caucus inflation was “a tax on the poor”. The opposition is preparing to make a central argument against the budget that it is inflationary. </p>
<p>Shadow finance minister Jane Hume said tackling inflation should be the number one priority. “If they really wanted to tackle the cost of living, they would tackle inflation first and foremost” by reining in spending. </p>
<p>Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley said any surplus the government delivered would be “because of the strong economic book that they inherited from us”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The budget projects an improvement of more than $143 billion over four years, compared to the Coalition’s final budget, brought down in March last year by Josh FrydenbergMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2014632023-03-09T09:29:49Z2023-03-09T09:29:49ZGrattan on Friday: Could Josh Frydenberg still have a path to the Liberal leadership?<p>One of those closely watching the extraordinary legal face-off between independent Monique Ryan and her former high-profile staffer, Sally Rugg, will be Josh Frydenberg, who lost Kooyong to the “teal” at last year’s election. </p>
<p>The outcome of the case, going to whether Rugg was forced to work unreasonable hours, could have significant ramifications for parliamentary staffs’ conditions. </p>
<p>But Frydenberg will be focused on whether the fight takes paint off Ryan. </p>
<p>Now in the private sector, Frydenberg hasn’t declared whether he will run again for Kooyong, but he hasn’t lost his political ambition. </p>
<p>He didn’t put his hand up for the Aston byelection, but then insiders didn’t expect him to. He’s concentrated on Kooyong – anyway the Liberals needed a woman in Aston. </p>
<p>If Frydenberg could regain his seat and Peter Dutton lost the 2025 election, one scenario for the Liberals would be for Frydenberg to take over the leadership and position the party to be competitive for the 2028 poll. </p>
<p>There are a lot of “ifs” involved, not least the 2025 result in Kooyong. Its boundaries will be affected by a redistribution. Ryan has another two years to dig in, and independents can be hard to dislodge. </p>
<p>Still, the teals were elected in very special circumstances, helped by the acute unpopularity of Scott Morrison, and some could be vulnerable next time. Ryan might be one of those. </p>
<p>Frydenberg would benefit if the economy were central at the election. But he’d need to make a decision on contesting relatively early, and run a savvier campaign than last time, when he unwisely derided his opponent as a “fake” independent. </p>
<p>There are those who cast doubt on how well Frydenberg would do as leader. Critics argue it’s hard to know what he stands for and that he wants to be popular with everyone. On the other hand, as a former treasurer and former energy minister, he has a wealth of front-line experience. </p>
<p>Frydenberg started out with the label of a conservative, but became more centrist. In 2018 he won the Liberal deputyship overwhelmingly. He carries baggage from the Morrison years, including what some saw as excessive loyalty to the then PM (he was also loyal to PMs Abbott and Turnbull). </p>
<p>Whatever his limitations, however, a Liberal party defeated in 2025 wouldn’t be replete with leadership talent.</p>
<p>Speculation about the significance of a Frydenberg return carries with it the assumption Dutton is doomed to failure. Caveats are required. I recalled being sceptical when Tony Abbott was elected leader. Then he nearly won his first election, and cleaned up at his second. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-another-rate-rise-support-for-super-tax-hike-pms-india-trip-rugg-v-ryan-201300">Word from The Hill: Another rate rise; support for super tax hike; PM's India trip; Rugg V Ryan</a>
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<p>That said, it would be difficult at present to find anyone who’d put any money on Dutton. </p>
<p>Meanwhile he and his party are struggling for a strategy. </p>
<p>Dutton is, on a range of issues, adopting the “just say no” approach. The Liberals are opposing the legislation for implementing the government’s emissions reduction target (the safeguard bill), and bills for the national reconstruction fund (a kick-start for manufacturing), and a fund to generate a money stream to help provide affordable housing. </p>
<p>The “say no” strategy means Labor can counter Liberal attacks on the government over, for example, energy prices, by pointing out the Coalition voted against legislation last year to curb price rises. </p>
<p>Dutton jumped on the government’s superannuation tax rise, but the subsequent polling did not meet Liberal hopes they were on a winner. Newspoll showed strong support (64%) for the change, including 54% of Coalition voters. </p>
<p>While the Coalition is pursuing negative tactics (as Abbott did in opposition), this doesn’t extend to everything. There is important bipartisanship, for instance, on AUKUS. With the deal on the nuclear-powered submarines to be unveiled next week, Dutton on Thursday reaffirmed the opposition “will support the decisions of the government under AUKUS”. </p>
<p>However, one test coming up will be on the level of defence spending in the budget. Will the opposition say it should be higher than whatever the government settles on? </p>
<p>On the Voice to Parliament, Dutton has yet to declare a formal position. But he’s had nothing positive to say about it, and his party room would have a majority against. If the Liberals oppose it, that’s likely to go down poorly with younger voters. </p>
<p>Among the Liberals’ multiple problems is a weak team, which also lacks balance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-trimming-the-tail-of-the-superannuation-tax-tiger-is-no-easy-task-200996">Grattan on Friday: Trimming the tail of the superannuation tax tiger is no easy task</a>
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<p>Senior people such as Liberal deputy Sussan Ley and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor are poor performers. </p>
<p>The moderates were decimated at the election, and those left are failing to act as a cohesive influence. </p>
<p>Backbencher Bridget Archer speaks out on issues, but comes across as reflecting and protecting her seat rather than having wider clout within the party. </p>
<p>The Liberals’ Senate leader, Simon Birmingham, is a heavyweight moderate who is not the driving force he should be. Former foreign minister Marise Payne, also a moderate, is neither seen nor heard publicly.</p>
<p>Valuable parliamentary seats are taken up by people with extreme positions, such as senators Gerard Rennick from Queensland and Alex Antic from South Australia. </p>
<p>Scott Morrison is in another category, but should make way for new blood.</p>
<p>The challenge of recruiting good potential candidates and getting them selected is only likely to get worse at a time when a political career has become unattractive to many, and the party erects road blocks to the best and brightest. </p>
<p>At the grass roots, it is vulnerable to infiltration by fundamentalist religious groups. Organisationally, it’s riven by factionalism and incompetent, with the Victorian, NSW and Western Australian divisions dysfunctional. Dutton needs to tackle this, but it’s a near-impossible task.</p>
<p>Among Dutton’s problem is Dutton himself. </p>
<p>As leader, the right-winger has shown himself pragmatic and managed to hold the party together. He is an asset in his home state of Queensland, where Labor is weak. But it is hard to see him making inroads in the south, especially in the progressive state of Victoria. Observers are looking to Aston to give an early reading.</p>
<p>Labor holds government by a very narrow margin, but as things stand now, Dutton’s only route to victory in 2025 would require the Albanese government – which faces some tough economic problems – to fail lamentably in the next two years. </p>
<p>Not impossible. Labor went into minority government in 2010 after a good win in 2007. Malcolm Turnbull turned Abbott’s 2013 landslide into a close result in 2016. </p>
<p>But if Albanese doesn’t squander power, the Liberals would be pitching for a two-stage comeback at best. And Frydenberg just might be back in the play.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Frydenberg, now in the private sector, hasn’t declared whether he will run again for Kooyong, but he hasn’t lost his political ambitionMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1889112022-08-17T12:18:02Z2022-08-17T12:18:02ZView from The Hill: Morrison reverts to type in an unconvincing defence<p>One of the more bizarre things Scott Morrison said in his hour-long, sometimes combative, Wednesday news conference was that he’d had a “wonderful” conversation with Josh Frydenberg on Tuesday. </p>
<p>Morrison contacted Frydenberg after the revelation the former prime minister had himself sworn into the treasury portfolio in May last year and never told the treasurer. On the same day he’d inserted himself in the home affairs ministry, unbeknown to occupant Karen Andrews. </p>
<p>When she learned this week of his action, Andrews exploded and called for Morrison to leave parliament. Frydenberg, now in the investment banking world although retaining a hankering for politics, acted with more restraint. </p>
<p>But for the ex-treasurer and ex-member for Kooyong, the affair must raise the “what if” question. </p>
<p>What if the story of Morrison’s extraordinary power-grab had come out a few months before the election? </p>
<p>At that time some colleagues, fearful for their prospects, had sounded out Frydenberg about a possible move on Morrison. Frydenberg didn’t entertain the idea, staying loyal to Morrison (as he had to PMs Turnbull and Abbott). </p>
<p>It’s just possible the power-grab story might have toppled Morrison, the Liberals under Frydenberg might have contained their losses, and Frydenberg might have held his seat. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrisons-passion-for-control-trashed-conventions-and-accountability-188747">View from The Hill: Morrison's passion for control trashed conventions and accountability</a>
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<p>Of course none of that might have happened. But if you were Frydenberg, Tuesday’s conversation would have seemed less than “wonderful”. Morrison, however, portrays the world just as he wants it to be seen. </p>
<p>Scott Morrison stripped of power is not so different from Scott Morrison clothed in the garb of office. On Wednesday there were elements of preacher and salesman. Except no one was buying the messages. </p>
<p>His news conference did nothing to counter the damage from what’s been revealed about his putting himself into five ministries, without announcement and in most cases without the occupants knowing. In many observers’ eyes, it left him worse off. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Peter Dutton and even Morrison’s close mate Stuart Robert distanced themselves from the former PM’s actions. Teal independent Sophie Scamps said there should be a parliamentary inquiry.</p>
<p>Governor-General David Hurley, caught up in the imbroglio, indicated he’d had “no reason to believe that appointments would not be communicated”.</p>
<p>On the power-grab, Morrison’s explanation amounted to saying that everyone expected he was responsible for everything, so he acted accordingly. Understanding public expectations, “I believed it was necessary […] to have what were effectively emergency powers, to exercise in extreme situations that would be unforeseen”. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-on-scott-morrisons-bizarre-power-grab-188830">Word from The Hill: On Scott Morrison's bizarre power grab</a>
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<p>There’s irony here. Morrison says he was responding to expectations about responsibility, but a chief criticism of him during the last term was that he dodged responsibility.</p>
<p>The pandemic played strongly to Morrison’s preferred command-and-control style. </p>
<p>“As prime minister, only I could really understand the weight of responsibility that was on my shoulders and on no one else, and as a result I took the decisions that I thought I needed to take.”</p>
<p>A revealing line came in his retort to one persistent journalist. “You’re standing on the shore after the fact. I was steering the ship in the middle of the tempest.” </p>
<p>But a ship is operated by a crew, not just a captain. Why not tell his cabinet colleagues he’d had himself put into multiple ministries? </p>
<p>“I did not want any of my ministers to be going about their daily business any differently”, he said. “I was concerned that these issues could have been misconstrued and misunderstood and undermine the confidence of ministers in the performance of their duties.” </p>
<p>This doesn’t bear scrutiny. If Morrison’s argument for his extraordinary action was so compelling, ministers would presumably have accepted the case. But it was full of holes and illogical. Indeed, he now says “in hindsight” it had been unnecessary to put himself into treasury and home affairs.</p>
<p>While Morrison’s behaviour can be seen as the weirdest of aberrations, looked at from another angle it is just the most extreme example of his default mode of secrecy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-the-liberals-would-be-better-off-with-morrison-out-of-parliament-188838">View from The Hill: The Liberals would be better off with Morrison out of parliament</a>
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<p>There were cover-ups on everything from his Hawaii holiday to who knew what and when about the Brittany Higgins matter. The cover-ups were accompanied by lies, dissembling, and dodgy investigations. </p>
<p>In those cases, Morrison was trying to hide things from the media and the public. With his special ministerial arrangements, it was ministers, individually and collectively, who were to be kept in the dark (as well as media and voters). Morrison did not just think cabinet colleagues didn’t have a right to know. He apparently thought they could become flaky if they did know. </p>
<p>But while eschewing scrutiny, Morrison also wanted to have the story of his prime ministership told in a way that would put him in the best light. </p>
<p>So he gave extensive co-operation for the book Plagued, written by Simon Benson and Geoff Chambers, journalists from The Australian. Morrison had a long and close relationship with Benson. </p>
<p>He said at his news conference:“That book was written based on interviews that were conducted at the time, "in the middle of the tempest,” which was what made it an “interesting read”. </p>
<p>Plagued broke the initial story of Morrison’s secret arrangements, and then further information quickly came out. In another irony, the book Morrison hoped would put some shine on his legacy became the source of its latest tarnishing. </p>
<p>As for his future, Morrison said: “As a former prime minister, I intend to go on being a quiet Australian in the Shire and in St George doing my job as a local
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the more bizarre things Scott Morrison said in his hour-long, sometimes combative, Wednesday news conference was that he’d had a “wonderful” conversation with Josh Frydenberg on Tuesday.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888382022-08-16T12:01:14Z2022-08-16T12:01:14ZView from The Hill: The Liberals would be better off with Morrison out of parliament<p>Liberal frontbencher Karen Andrews wouldn’t be alone among her colleagues in believing Scott Morrison should quit parliament.</p>
<p>Andrews, home affairs minister in the former government, on Tuesday declared the Australian people were “betrayed” by Morrison’s installing himself in five portfolios, including hers, in secret arrangements. </p>
<p>She was one of the ministers not told he’d moved in. Nor, most remarkably, was treasurer Josh Frydenberg (who a few months later stayed at The Lodge) informed he had a ministerial bedfellow. Likewise finance minister Mathias Cormann. </p>
<p>Andrews has another reason for a heightened sensitivity to Morrison’s willingness to flout conventions and propriety. </p>
<p>When an asylum seeker boat was intercepted on election day, Morrison was determined to try to exploit it politically. The pressure coming from his office onto Andrews’ office to urgently publicise the incident has been documented in a recent inquiry. </p>
<p>While Andrews defended her actions after the report was released, she lost skin. </p>
<p>Without doubt the parliamentary Liberal Party would be better off if Morrison quit. </p>
<p>Even before this week’s revelations, there was nothing he could contribute – he sits as a failure from the past in a party that will have immense trouble adjusting to the future. Now he presents a live target for Labor. Anthony Albanese on Tuesday wouldn’t rule out Labor moving a censure against him. </p>
<p>He enjoys minimal respect among his colleagues. As long as he hangs around, he’ll be a distraction. </p>
<p>Former prime minister John Howard advanced the one pragmatic argument against Morrison quitting – it would create an unwanted and expensive by-election for the Liberals. </p>
<p>“Apart from anything else it is not in the interests of the Liberal Party to have a by-election at the moment in a very safe seat, particularly as in the state of New South Wales we will face a state election in the early part of next year,” Howard said bluntly, interviewed on the ABC on Tuesday night. </p>
<p>Some would add that in these volatile political times no seat is absolutely “safe”. </p>
<p>Morrison hasn’t been expected to see out the parliamentary term. But presumably he needs a job to go to. This week’s stories will have done nothing for his employability. </p>
<p>The disclosure of Morrison’s behaviour has put heat on Governor-General David Hurley.</p>
<p>Hurley was quick to issue a Monday statement setting out how he had acted in accordance with the Constitution. He said it was up to the government whether the arrangements were made public.</p>
<p>To suggest Hurley should not have done what he was asked totally misunderstands his role. He must act according to government advice, assuming what it proposes is legal. (It might be added, however, that a wise governor-general also questions and counsels when circumstances require.) </p>
<p>University of NSW law professor and constitutional specialist George Williams suggests the convention should be put into law that all ministerial appointments be announced to parliament. </p>
<p>On Tuesday Morrison made a belated effort to explain himself. He began on 2GB – his favourite radio roost – but it was a fiasco. He didn’t recall any portfolios other than those initially mentioned (health, finance, resources) into which he’d inserted himself. </p>
<p>It fell to Albanese to add home affairs and treasury. To have apparently forgotten you have made yourself treasurer is really something. </p>
<p>Later Morrison issued a long Facebook post, in which he invoked the “extraordinary times” of COVID that required “extraordinary measures” to justify his actions. </p>
<p>“I took the precaution of being given authority to administer various departments of state should the need arise due to incapacity of a minister or in the national interest.” This was where ministers had specific powers under legislation not subject to cabinet oversight. Health was the major example. </p>
<p>Morrison said treasury and home affairs were added as a “belts and braces” precaution in May 2021.</p>
<p>He explained his lack of memory of key portfolios by saying “there was a lot going on at the time” and the powers hadn’t had to be used. </p>
<p>Why not inform all the relevant ministers, the cabinet, the public? (Health Minister Greg Hunt knew and Morrison did think Cormann had been told, but there was some glitch.) Morrison said he didn’t want ministers “second guessing themselves”, or for their authority to be diminished.</p>
<p>The one area where Morrison used the power he’d acquired was in the resources portfolio, and this had nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with votes. There he became minister so he could overrule the publicly designated minister, Keith Pitt, on the issue of gas exploration off the NSW coast.</p>
<p>“Once having been given the authority to consider this matter I advised the minister of my intention to do so,” Morrison said. “This was the only matter I involved myself directly with in this or any other department”. </p>
<p>Morrison ended his post with an apology “for any offence to my colleagues”. But he showed little sign he comprehended why they would be so deeply offended by his lack of respect, represented by his unwillingness to take them into his confidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Liberal frontbencher Karen Andrews wouldn’t be alone among her colleagues in believing Scott Morrison should quit parliament.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888302022-08-16T07:56:35Z2022-08-16T07:56:35ZWord from The Hill: On Scott Morrison’s bizarre power grab<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479338/original/file-20220816-1531-2dp7ed.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C23%2C3958%2C1970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast, politics editor Amanda Dunn and Michelle discuss this week’s revelations that former prime minster Scott Morrison had himself secretly sworn into five different portfolios.
They talk about the criticisms some are making of Governor-General David Hurley for his role, and the political fallout which has seen one Liberal frontbencher, Karen Andrews, saying Morrison should leave parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888082022-08-16T03:49:49Z2022-08-16T03:49:49ZScott Morrison made himself treasurer days before the 2021 budget<p>Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison installed himself in five portfolios – including treasury – just days before the May 2021 budget. </p>
<p>Anthony Albanese gave details of his predecessor’s extraordinary actions at a Tuesday morning news conference. The prime minister said he had sought advice from the solicitor-general on the legality of what had happened, which he would receive on Monday.</p>
<p>“I am seeking further advice as to the use of these extraordinary powers by Scott Morrison.” </p>
<p>Morrison became health minister on March 14 2020, finance minister on March 30, 2020, home affairs minister and treasurer on May 6 2021, and minister for industry, science, energy and resources on April 15 2021. </p>
<p>Josh Frydenberg, who was treasurer and deputy Liberal leader, didn’t know Morrison had moved into his portfolio. He delivered the 2021 budget on May 11.</p>
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<h2>Liberal frontbencher calls for Morrison’s resignation from Parliament</h2>
<p>Karen Andrews, who was home affairs minister, said she had not known of the pairing arrangement and called for Morrison to resign from parliament. </p>
<p>“I had absolutely no knowledge and was not told by the PM, PMO nor the department secretary. This undermines the integrity of government,” she told The Australian. </p>
<p>Departmental secretary Mike Pezzullo did not know of the arrangement. </p>
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<p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton refused to back Andrews’ call for Morrison’s resignation. </p>
<p>Morrison, who refused to comment on Monday, went on 2GB to defend himself on Tuesday morning. </p>
<p>“They were very unconventional times,” he said. Ministers, including Dutton, had gone down with COVID. “We had Boris Johnson, who almost died one night, I remember that night very vividly. I was very concerned he wouldn’t be with us in the morning.”</p>
<p>Speaking before Albanese’s news conference, Morrison was asked whether he had assumed any control of any other portfolios beyond health, finance and resources (those initially revealed). </p>
<p>“Not to my recollection,” he said. “I’m pursuing that, but not to my recollection. There were a number that were considered at the time for safeguard reasons. But I don’t recall any others being actioned.”</p>
<p>He said he had apologised to Mathias Cormann, now secretary-general of the OECD, for not informing him of the arrangement. “I thought that had been done through offices to be honest, […] that was an oversight.”</p>
<p>Morrison admitted that becoming resources minister had nothing to do with the pandemic. He and resources minister Keith Pitt had opposing views on the PEP11 gas exploration off the NSW coast, with Morrison determined to veto it for political reasons. The decision-making power rested with the resources minister. </p>
<p>“If I wished to be the decision maker, then I had to take the steps that I took. And then I had to follow a very meticulous process in informing myself about the issue, taking briefs on the issue, and then making a decision in accordance with all the legal requirements, which I did. </p>
<p>"And when I put myself in a position to take that decision, I informed Keith at that point. And then as a result, I went forward and made that decision.”</p>
<p>Albanese sought to spread blame to Morrison’s colleagues. </p>
<p>“What has occurred here is also a flow-on, I believe, from the fact that Mr Morrison’s colleagues sat back and watched power be centralised within the Morrison government. They ticked off on the arrangements that had Scott Morrison as the only member of a cabinet committee.”</p>
<p>Dutton said Albanese’s seeking advice from the solicitor-general was appropriate. </p>
<p>“It’s time for cool heads to prevail,” Dutton told a news conference. “The
Prime Minister has come out of his holidays swinging. Obviously this is an issue that will get his teeth into.” But Australian families were dealing with bigger issues, Dutton said. </p>
<h2>Morrison’s Facebook explanation</h2>
<p>Morrison has posted a long Facebook explanation of his actions. Extracts are below: </p>
<p>“As Prime Minister I considered it necessary to put in place safeguards, redundancies and contingencies to ensure the continuity and effective operation of Government during this crisis period, which extended for the full period of my term. </p>
<p>"I took the precaution of being given authority to administer various departments of state should the need arise due to incapacity of a Minister or in the national interest. This was done in relation to departments where Ministers were vested with specific powers under their legislation that were not subject to oversight by Cabinet, including significant financial authorities.</p>
<p>"Given the significant nature of many of these powers I considered this to be a prudent and responsible action as Prime Minister.</p>
<p>"It is not uncommon for multiple Ministers to be sworn to administer the same Department. However, given that such additional Ministers were in a more junior position in the relevant Departments, and would not be familiar with all the details of the pandemic response, I considered it appropriate that the redundancy be put in place at a higher level within the Government and not at a more junior level. </p>
<p>"The major Department for which this was considered was the Health Department, given the extensive powers afforded to the Minister by the Biosecurity Act. </p>
<p>"As an added administrative precaution, as a ‘belts and braces’ approach, the Departments of Treasury and Home Affairs were added some time after in May 2021. </p>
<p>"As events demonstrated with the resurgence of COVID-19 in the second half of 2021, we could never take certainty for granted. In hindsight these arrangements were unnecessary and until seeking advice from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet today, I had not recollected these arrangements having been put in place. There was a lot going on at the time.</p>
<p>"Thankfully it was not necessary for me to trigger use of any of these powers. In the event that I would have to use such powers I would have done so disclosing the authority by which I was making such decisions. The authority was pre approved to ensure there would be no delay in being able to make decisions or take actions should the need arise. </p>
<p>"The crisis was a highly dynamic environment and it was important to plan ahead and take what precautions could lawfully be put in place to ensure I could act, as Prime Minister, if needed.</p>
<p>It is important to note that throughout this time Ministers in all Departments, where I was provided with authority to act, exercised full control of their Departments and portfolios without intervention. Ministerial briefs were not copied to me as Prime Minister in a co-Minister capacity, as this was not the nature of the arrangement. These arrangements were there as a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ safeguard. </p>
<p>"The use of the powers by a Prime Minister to exercise authority to administer Departments has clearly caused concern. I regret this, but acted in good faith in a crisis.</p>
<p>"I used such powers on one occasion only. I did not seek to interfere with Ministers in the conduct of their portfolio as there were no circumstances that warranted their use, except in the case of the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources [when he vetoed offshore gas exploration off the NSW coast].</p>
<p>"I have endeavoured to set out the context and reasoning for the decisions I took as Prime Minister in a highly unusual time. I did so in good faith, seeking to exercise my responsibilities as Prime Minister which exceeded those of any other member of the Government, or Parliament. For any offence to my colleagues I apologise.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison installed himself in five portfolios – including treasury – just days before the May 2021 budget.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835962022-05-22T20:03:23Z2022-05-22T20:03:23ZMorrison’s ‘great electoral bungle’ leaves the Liberals decimated and heading in the wrong direction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464658/original/file-20220522-21-n5lne9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/James Ross</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is pretty human to crave the approval of peers and to hope for more of the same, even if unconsciously.</p>
<p>But for political parties selling themselves as unifying forces of the middle, broad-based and representative, this way lies atrophy. And death.</p>
<p>Courting the applause of extreme media voices is a formula for narrowing a party’s electoral reach.</p>
<p>Yet this is where the Liberal Party of Australia has journeyed over its nine years in office. First under Tony Abbott’s ideological zealotry and then through various squalls and culture wars since.</p>
<p>After unsuccessful attempts to address climate policy by Malcolm Turnbull and Josh Frydenberg – the latter being the standout casualty of the 2022 reckoning – the preference for clever politics over policy solutions has drawn the Liberal Party further from the great Australian middle, and towards gratifying the sharper grievances of religious conservatives and the electoral gains from suburban outsider resentment.</p>
<p>Throwing out euphemisms like “the quiet Australians” to camouflage his real project of demonising elites, Scott Morrison <a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-wont-be-achieved-in-inner-city-wine-bars-morrison-159265">told a mining conference</a> a year ago “We’re not going to achieve net-zero in the cafes, dinner parties and wine bars of our inner cities”.</p>
<p>It turns out this was a thumb in the eye to his own party’s greatest asset, its rusted-on intergenerational base of cashed-up professionals in its heartland. In the year since, this support base has been not just ignored, but insulted.</p>
<p>Depicted as mere dupes for even considering candidates wanting swifter action on climate change, corruption, and gender equality, life-long Liberals rebelled, voting with their well-heeled feet.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464659/original/file-20220522-18-dp9lyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464659/original/file-20220522-18-dp9lyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464659/original/file-20220522-18-dp9lyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464659/original/file-20220522-18-dp9lyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464659/original/file-20220522-18-dp9lyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464659/original/file-20220522-18-dp9lyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464659/original/file-20220522-18-dp9lyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Liberals branded them as fakes, but independents like Kylea Tink harnessed enough votes to snatch previously safe Liberal seats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Bianca de Marchi</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On May 21 2022, Morrison’s divisive strategy backfired spectacularly.</p>
<p>His personal appointment of the anti-trans Katherine Deves in Warringah (a once Liberal seat with the second highest pro-marriage equality vote in NSW in 2017) did not turn the election nationally, but its symbolism mattered. </p>
<p>It said everything about the slice of Australia to which Morrison’s Liberal-Nationals government had become in thrall.</p>
<p>Dog whistling Deves’s harmful views to the marginal outer-suburbs where Morrison thought they might just resonate, was a moral low point in major party politics in Australia. But it was also an undiluted electoral disaster.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464660/original/file-20220522-18-cnopil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464660/original/file-20220522-18-cnopil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464660/original/file-20220522-18-cnopil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464660/original/file-20220522-18-cnopil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464660/original/file-20220522-18-cnopil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464660/original/file-20220522-18-cnopil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464660/original/file-20220522-18-cnopil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Using Katherine Deves’ anti trans views as a dog whistle was not just a low point in public debate, but an unmitigated political disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So how does the party of Menzies’ “forgotten people” and John Howard’s “broad church” read the result, and then re-tool for recovery?</p>
<p>That task is made far more difficult because so many of the party’s leading lights have been washed away in Morrison’s great electoral bungle. The most important loss is the aforementioned Frydenberg (it seems) because the erstwhile treasurer and deputy leader represented the articulate urbane centre-ground. Clearly the most gifted and saleable Liberal in the parliament, he was the heir apparent.</p>
<p>His absence highlights that even the early logistical decisions will set the course. Among the few remaining moderates, Simon Birmingham told Insiders on Sunday, who they choose to be leader will set the tone of the opposition, but influence its policy also. </p>
<p>Therefore, it matters. Assuming Frydenberg does not scrape through on a favourable postal vote surge, Peter Dutton is the both the most likely leader, and the most conservative.</p>
<p>His selection would inevitably take the Liberal Party further from its disillusioned traditional blue-ribbon supporters - certainly in Victoria but elsewhere also.</p>
<p>Voters who walked in 2022, would keep walking. </p>
<p>Here, the basic maths are crucial. It is hard to imagine the Coalition even getting to 76 seats in future without recovering some or all of the “teal” seats.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-narrow-labor-win-and-a-teal-bath-all-the-facts-and-figures-on-the-2022-election-183359">A narrow Labor win and a 'teal bath': all the facts and figures on the 2022 election</a>
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<p>Yet history shows that good independents consolidate their wins, suggesting these seats would be very hard to recover at any time, let alone when policy and personnel options are this limited.</p>
<p>Besides, finding genuinely local, top-shelf female candidates who are both capable and willing to take on a Zoe Daniel or a Monique Ryan – and who are prepared to campaign over almost a whole term, will be a supremely difficult task.</p>
<p>Making that commitment for a party with two more average conservative men running it (names like Angus Taylor and Dan Tehan have been mentioned) is even more difficult to picture. And if one of them is Peter Dutton, probably impossible.</p>
<p>This explains why Liberals are casting about for a woman to take one of the two leadership posts, probably that of deputy. Karen Andrews and Sussan Ley have been floated.</p>
<p>Surveying the carnage, Birmingham observed that the wellsprings of the weekend rout began a long time ago with the needlessly drawn-out marriage equality vote, (a full-blown culture war) and the rejection of the National Energy Guarantee championed by Frydenberg and Turnbull.
Both political storms had registered negatively with soft Liberals in the heartland seats, leaving many distinctly unimpressed. </p>
<p>Yet as the beleaguered party considers its options, entreaties to double-down on the very things that alienated it from its base are already being aired. The logic can be well hidden.</p>
<p>A hardliner from South Australia, Senator Alex Antic, <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/liberal-partys-experiment-with-the-poison-of-leftism-and-progressivism-must-be-over/video/f003efcc5fb73f4c8aefa29b08bc8608">told Sky News</a> on Sunday, </p>
<p>“>The Liberal Party’s experiment with the poison of leftism and progressivism must be over.”</p>
<p>Other prominent conservatives on the network suggested Liberals who had become pale imitations of Labor were the ones defeated, whereas hardliners who stood up against climate policy and who oppose a First Nations Voice to Parliament, had been successful. </p>
<p>These were their takes after the most significant shift to the left by mainstream voters in memory.</p>
<p>They highlight the influence of ideology and what looms as a wrestle for the centre-right soul that lay ahead.</p>
<p>Sensible Liberals meanwhile, have some big decisions to make. </p>
<p>They could listen to the extremist voices in partisan media, remembering of course it’s what got them to here. Or they could be more self-critical.</p>
<p>In a democracy, it’s never a terrible idea to listen to what the voters have just told you. Their message wasn’t hidden at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Menzies’ party has been delivered a massive blow - complete with loud messages - from its traditional base. The question now is whether it will listen.Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835952022-05-22T04:50:26Z2022-05-22T04:50:26ZVictoria turns red and teal as Liberals are all but vanquished in greater Melbourne<p>The federal election result is highly problematic for the Liberal Party. Aside from finding itself on the opposition benches for the first time in nine years, the Liberal Party lost support in what were once its strongest electorates in Victoria. The biggest blow of all came in losing former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong.</p>
<p>It’s a devastating result that must now start a conversation about the party’s policy agenda at the state and national level.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-narrow-labor-win-and-a-teal-bath-all-the-facts-and-figures-on-the-2022-election-183359">A narrow Labor win and a 'teal bath': all the facts and figures on the 2022 election</a>
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<h2>How Victoria’s electoral map was reshaped</h2>
<p>Victoria, like Western Australia, had been the subject of a routine electoral redistribution before this election by the Australian Electoral Commission. This resulted in a new seat being created to the west of Melbourne, Hawke, to reflect the state’s changing population. In the process, it redrew the boundaries of many seats.</p>
<p>Even before the campaign began, the Liberal Party looked to be in trouble in Victoria. At the national level, opinion polls were showing Labor ahead on the all-important two party preferred vote. </p>
<p>Despite this, the experience of 2019, when polls got it wrong, injected some doubt as to whether Labor could really win the election. For example, one nightmare situation for Labor could have been enjoying a boost in the support in seats it already held, but being unable to win seats from the Coalition. </p>
<p>The possibility of this occurring was quickly extinguished on election night as Chisholm, the most marginal seat held by the government in Victoria, showed a strong swing to Labor. A two-party preferred vote swing of over 8% meant Gladys Liu could not defend the seat, held by a margin of just 0.5%.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464638/original/file-20220522-13-au75hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464638/original/file-20220522-13-au75hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464638/original/file-20220522-13-au75hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464638/original/file-20220522-13-au75hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464638/original/file-20220522-13-au75hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464638/original/file-20220522-13-au75hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464638/original/file-20220522-13-au75hi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Labor’s Carina Garland won the marginal seat of Chisholm from the Liberals’ Gladys Liu.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span>
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<p>The story continued in other parts of the state such as the seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-209.htm">Deakin</a>, which covers suburbs including Ringwood and Croydon in eastern Melbourne. It is held by right faction luminary Michael Sukkar but, with a two-party swing of almost 6% to Labor, looks likely to be a Labor gain.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-two-party-system-in-australia-the-greens-teals-and-others-shock-the-major-parties-182672">Is this the end of the two-party system in Australia? The Greens, teals and others shock the major parties</a>
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<p>In the inner-metropolitan seat of <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-215.htm">Higgins</a>, Liberal incumbent Katie Allen’s primary vote fell by over 6%. The seat, once held by Treasurer Peter Costello and then Kelly O’Dwyer, is now looking almost certain to be won by Labor.</p>
<p>Even in the once-relatively safe seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-229.htm">Menzies</a>, which was previously held by Kevin Andrews, the Liberal party’s primary vote fell by over 9%. The candidate who replaced Andrews, Keith Wolahan, must now wait for the final votes to be counted to know his fate because, at the time of writing, he was ahead by just 45 votes. </p>
<p>There were some rare bright spots for the Coalition in Victoria. The Nationals were able to defend their seats while, in the outer-metropolitan electorate of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-223.htm">La Trobe</a>, Jason Wood has strengthened the margin he holds the seat by over 3%. </p>
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<h2>Inner Melbourne turns teal</h2>
<p>One major development in Victoria was the performance of the teal independent candidates, especially in the inner metropolitan seats where the Liberal Party had performed very strongly over many decades.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464633/original/file-20220522-13-5lpaut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464633/original/file-20220522-13-5lpaut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464633/original/file-20220522-13-5lpaut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464633/original/file-20220522-13-5lpaut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464633/original/file-20220522-13-5lpaut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464633/original/file-20220522-13-5lpaut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464633/original/file-20220522-13-5lpaut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Independent Zoe Daniel has won the formerly blue ribbon Liberal seat of Goldstein from incumbent Tim Wilson.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span>
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<p>The electorate of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-214.htm">Goldstein</a> had been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1984, and has been represented by MPs who became senior ministers, including David Kemp (1990-2004) and Andrew Robb (2004-2016). The incumbent, Tim Wilson, was defending a healthy two-party preferred margin of 7.8%. However, this evaporated as independent Zoe Daniel won the seat after the Liberal’s primary vote collapsed by over 13%.</p>
<p>The seat of Kooyong, which was held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, also fell to a teal independent, Monique Ryan, who finished with a higher primary vote than the incumbent. </p>
<p>The defeat in Kooyong has added significance. This was the seat that was held by the Liberal Party’s founder and longest serving prime minister, Robert Menzies. The defeat of the party here indicates its policy agenda is no longer resonating with what was once its core constituency.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>The losses in Victoria for the Liberal Party pose significant challenges. At a national level, the loss of Frydenberg, Allen and Wilson deprives the party of insights from Victorians, something that it can ill afford when trying to arrest the slide in popularity in this state. </p>
<p>The absence of Frydenberg in particular will also diminish the experience the party has, especially in the Treasury portfolio, and will likely have implications for the party’s policy direction.</p>
<p>The absence of these MPs, as well as the possible absence of Sukkar, also has important organisational implications for the party at the broader state level. The Liberal Party had significant party infrastructure that was built around the inner metropolitan electorates. Kooyong, Deakin and Higgins all had <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-rightwing-liberal-club-hiding-donors-and-building-conservative-clout-20170303-guqc8c.html">“200” clubs</a>, which are important fundraising bodies for the Liberal Party. It remains to be seen how the party can continue to fund-raise in the same way without a local MP.</p>
<p>In electoral terms, the Liberal Party has gone backwards in Victoria, losing seats to not just its main rival in Labor, but also new challengers in the form of the teal independents. It will need some serious soul-searching to find its way back from here.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183595/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Once referred to as its ‘jewel in the crown’, Victoria has turned its back on the Liberal Party, taking with it some of its key MPs.Zareh Ghazarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825382022-05-05T13:26:40Z2022-05-05T13:26:40ZGrattan on Friday: ‘Gotcha’ questions are ugly journalism but hazards for leaders<p>The public don’t have much regard for journalists and many people will be critical of the “gotcha” questioning that found Anthony Albanese on Thursday unable to recite the six points of his policy on the National Disability Insurance Scheme. </p>
<p>Pursuing “gotchas” is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. We’ve seen plenty of it recently. A while ago, Scott Morrison didn’t know the price of petrol or bread. Because a leader can’t rattle off a list doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t know a policy, and usually there are deeper questions the public would like explored. </p>
<p>Having said that, the NDIS moment was unfortunate for Albanese. And he wasn’t convincing when later on the ABC he denied he’d been caught out, although he’d win sympathy for his contention that “one of the things that puts people off politics, I think, is the sort of gotcha game-playing”. </p>
<p>The incident brought back memories of his stumble at the start of the campaign – when he couldn’t recall the unemployment and cash rates – and it played into the impression he isn’t good on detail. Before the news conference, he had been grilled on TV about whether he was really across his brief.</p>
<p>Albanese is not a strong campaigner, and it doesn’t help that he’s just come out of COVID and had to get through a campaign launch while still feeling its aftermath. He’s relying on having his frontbench colleagues beside him, which is not a bad thing in itself because most of the team are good performers but does risk diminishing him. He is also keeping to a relatively light schedule. </p>
<p>Recognising his own weak points, and the media’s penchant for “gotchas”, he needed to be better prepared. On Thursday he finally rustled up his material on the NDIS from an adviser but the confusion made for bad pictures. </p>
<p>The danger of being trapped by these questions is they not only get immediate headlines but become part of a wider, self-reinforcing negative story. And “gotchas” deflect attention from the big substantive issues, which in this fourth campaign week have been cost of living and rising interest rates.</p>
<p>A just-released poll from the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods, titled Views on policy and politics on the eve of the 2022 Federal Election, underlines how central the cost of living has become for voters.</p>
<p>Some 3587 people were asked, between April 11 and 26, how much of a priority each of 22 policy areas should be for the next government. Nearly two thirds (64.7%) gave as a top priority reducing the cost of living. Among Coalition voters, 60.8% said this was a top priority: among Labor voters, it was 68.8%.</p>
<p>The only other area rating more than 60% as a top priority was “fixing the aged care system”(60.1%). </p>
<p>Four other areas polled more than 50% as a top priority. These were: “strengthening the nation’s economy” (54.4%), “reducing health care costs (53.5%), "dealing with global climate change” (52.8%), and “improving the education system” (51.6%). </p>
<p>Just 27.2% said fixing the budget was a top priority. </p>
<p>The two issues at the bottom of the list of top priorities were “dealing with the issue of immigration” (22.3%) and “addressing issues around race in this country” (24.8%). </p>
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<p>It is notable that only 36.5% of Australians say dealing with the pandemic should be a top priority for the next government. </p>
<p>COVID is hardly getting a mention in this election campaign. This is despite a continuing high death rate, which only a few months ago would have been dominating headlines and news conferences. Covid-related deaths are now running at about 40 a day nationally, and it is currently the second leading cause of death in Australia, just a little behind heart disease, and ahead of dementia/Alzheimer’s disease. </p>
<p>The COVID years have been a balancing act between health and the economy – the scales, in the minds of politicians and members of the public, are now heavily weighted to the latter. </p>
<p>In campaigns, it is worth thinking about not just what issues are being talked about, but also what is being forgotten or pushed aside.</p>
<p>In this election, the Liberals are fighting on two fronts – against Labor and against the “teal” candidates. Thus on Wednesday treasurer Josh Frydenberg debated his Labor shadow Jim Chalmers at the National Press Club and on Thursday, he was up against his “teal” challenger Monique Ryan in a Sky debate in his Melbourne seat of Kooyong. </p>
<p>It’s a fair bet Frydenberg anticipated his face-off with Chalmers was the more predictable and manageable contest – it was a battle on known ground in which each combatant fought competently. </p>
<p>When Frydenberg met Ryan, he was on more unfamiliar, even treacherous political terrain, despite his opponent being at a considerable disadvantage, in terms of experience and her narrow agenda. </p>
<p>Frydenberg had his arguments marshalled, but prickled when Ryan described him as “the treasurer for NSW” during the pandemic. He was careful to stress his concern for his Kooyong community, and subtly made it clear he was no Scott Morrison (for example when talking about an integrity commission). </p>
<p>With “Keep Josh” signs through his electorate, Frydenberg warned: “People need to know that if they want to keep me as the local member, but they may have an issue with something that the Liberal party has said or done and they want to give us a kick for that, at the end of the day […] that may not leave me as being the local member”.</p>
<p>Ryan stressed the teal issues of climate and integrity, and cast her opponent as “a hostage both to Barnaby Joyce but also his own political ambitions”. </p>
<p>She declared that “For Mr Frydenberg, politics is about power. For me, it’s about people.” </p>
<p>“Politics for me is about people, thank you Monique,” Frydenberg said sharply. “It’s about small business […] It’s about my local community.”</p>
<p>The content of this debate was less remarkable than the fact it happened at all. That the treasurer was going head to head in a major debate with an independent candidate was testament to how concerned Frydenberg has been about this seat that once was seen as the deepest blue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The public don’t have much regard for journalists and many people will be critical of the “gotcha” questioning that found Anthony Albanese unable to recite the six points of his policy on the NDISMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1823392022-05-03T08:33:14Z2022-05-03T08:33:14ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: On the rate rise, Albanese’s launch and what a Frydenberg loss would mean for the Liberals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460942/original/file-20220503-14-bvakm5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3994%2C1988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn canvass the Reserve Bank’s increase in interest rates, and which side wins or loses from it, as cost of living is centre stage in the election battle. They also discuss Anthony Albanese’s launch, and the implications for the Liberals if Josh Frydenberg were to lose in Kooyong.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182339/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1821332022-05-03T04:17:16Z2022-05-03T04:17:16ZWhy teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460887/original/file-20220503-16-5mcav5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diego Fedele/ AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the Morrison government’s biggest challenges in this election campaign is the rise of the “teals”, a group of 22 independents who have received funding from Climate 200. </p>
<p>Running on platforms of science-backed climate action, integrity reform and real progress on gender equality, they are challenging Liberal MPs in urban electorates traditionally considered Liberal party heartland. </p>
<p>Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who is facing a serious threat from medical doctor Monique Ryan in the inner-Melbourne seat of Kooyong, has repeatedly used the term <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/fake-independents-holding-balance-of-power-frydenberg/video/14e2b293d6628a3c787420dcaf4594d0">“fake” independents</a> to describe these challengers. Former Prime Minister John Howard has similarly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anti-liberal-groupies-john-howard-blasts-teal-independents-20220423-p5afl5.html">accused</a> them of “posing” as independents. Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/scott-morrison-slams-independents-as-voices-of-labor-after-it-was-revealed-one-candidate-was-in-labor/news-story/ccc36cae1f401f179ff668566a63b5f7">says</a> they are the “voices of” Labor and the Greens.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/below-the-line-former-independent-cathy-mcgowan-hits-back-at-john-howards-anti-liberal-groupies-jibe-podcast-182038">Below the Line: Former independent Cathy McGowan hits back at John Howard’s ‘anti-Liberal groupies’ jibe – podcast</a>
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<p>This strategy of playing the woman and not the ball – as well as the advertising spend in electorates like Kooyong – suggests the Liberals are concerned. They have some good reasons to be. </p>
<h2>The teal appeal</h2>
<p>It is certainly true these independents are running in Liberal, not Labor seats. But as Climate 200 convener Simon Holmes a Court <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/independents-seek-to-reclaim-centre-from-wealthy-goliaths/news-story/aa0bef99301dbd5fde60608c4dfa9109">argues</a>, they are running with the goal of dislodging government MPs (which of course, happen to be Liberal). </p>
<p>It is worth noting that not all the Climate 200-backed independents use the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-20/teal-independents-who-are-candidates-what-electorates/101000412">teal colour</a> for their campaigns. North Sydney’s Kylea Tink uses pink, while Indi’s Helen Haines uses orange. Yet, the choice of teal for most campaigns – a colour between blue and green – does give an indication of their message to the moderate Liberal voters they are trying to attract. </p>
<p>The teal independents are speaking directly to moderate Liberal constituents who are frustrated with the (blue) Liberal Party’s positioning on social and environmental issues. </p>
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<img alt="A building with election signs for both Monique Ryan and Josh Frydenberg." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460891/original/file-20220503-13-xyur6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460891/original/file-20220503-13-xyur6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460891/original/file-20220503-13-xyur6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460891/original/file-20220503-13-xyur6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460891/original/file-20220503-13-xyur6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460891/original/file-20220503-13-xyur6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460891/original/file-20220503-13-xyur6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Kooyong residents have been bombarded with campaign material from sitting member Josh Frydenberg and independent challenger Monique Ryan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diego Fedele/AAP</span></span>
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<p>While these same voters may never vote Labor or Greens, many are alienated by Morrison and his government, particularly on climate change and women’s issues. </p>
<p>It is significant that <a href="https://www.climate200.com.au/candidates">19 of the 22 Climate 200 candidates</a> are women, all of whom have had highly successful careers in their own right. High-profile candidates include Ryan (Kooyong), a professor and head of neurology at the Royal Children’s Hospital, Zoe Daniel (Goldstein) a former ABC foreign correspondent, and Allegra Spender (Wentworth) the chief executive of the Australian Business and Community Network.</p>
<p>The teal independents are not political staffers taking the next step towards inevitable political careers. These are professional women making a radical sideways leap because, they say, this is what the times require. It’s a compelling story.</p>
<h2>Climate 200</h2>
<p>To receive Climate 200 funding and campaign support, teal independents have agreed to run on three key policies - climate, integrity, and gender equality - and have demonstrated they have the backing of their communities.</p>
<p>Holmes a Court has been at pains to argue his organisation is not a political party – it is a platform to support independents based on their commitment to the three main goals. As he <a href="https://assets.website-files.com/614ca2641b78b5811a37016f/620df46e57fdd24b0303548c_Independents%20and%20Climate%20%E2%80%94%20The%20Hope%20to%20End%20the%20Lost%20Decade.pdf">told</a> the National Press Club in February:</p>
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<p>The movement is nothing like a party – there is no hierarchy, no leader, no head office. No coordinated policy platforms.</p>
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<h2>Policy comparison</h2>
<p>So, how do the independent candidates measure against the Coalition, Labor and the Greens? I have reviewed the policy platforms of Spender, Ryan and Daniel as three of the most high profile new independent candidates. </p>
<p>On climate, Spender proposes to cut emissions by “at least 50% by 2030”, while Daniel and Ryan want 60% by 2030, and Daniel adds an <a href="https://www.zoedaniel.com.au/policies/climate/">80% renewable energy target by 2030</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-going-on-with-independent-candidates-and-the-federal-election-173587">What's going on with independent candidates and the federal election?</a>
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<p>These targets are more ambitious than both the Coalition and Labor, but less ambitious than <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/federal-election-liberal-labor-greens-climate-change-policies/101007970">the Greens</a>, who want 75% emissions reduction by 2030, and net zero by 2035.</p>
<p>On integrity in politics, all three independents variously demand a “strong”, “effective” anti-corruption body “with teeth”, greater transparency around tax-payer funded programs, reform of political campaign funding rules, and truth in political advertising. These policies largely align with Labor’s integrity policies, which include a <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/national-anti-corruption-commission">National Anti-Corruption Commission</a> by the end of 2022. They also align with those of the Greens, who add a role for the National Audit Office to <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform/democracy#clean-up-politics">audit all government programs</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, all the teal independents have a range of policies to increase women’s safety and equality, including childcare, parental leave, better pay for caring professions, women’s rights at work and programs to end family violence. On these policies, and simply the way they recognise the urgency of this issue, the independents are also more aligned with Labor and the Greens than the Coalition.</p>
<h2>The Liberal response</h2>
<p>The Liberal Party is certainly taking this challenge seriously, diverting campaign funding and resources to seats that it would otherwise consider safe.</p>
<p>For example, it is spending up big on nine-metre-wide billboards <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/threatened-frydenberg-splurges-on-billboards-20220324-p5a7ik">to “sandbag” Kooyong</a>, a seat that has been held by that party since Federation. In Wentworth, Dave Sharma’s posters use <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-one-owns-a-colour-sharma-denies-copying-spender-s-teal-brochure-20220312-p5a43f.html">the same colour teal</a> as his challenger, Spender, and have no Liberal party logo. In Goldstein, a stoush over election signs ended up in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/23/independent-zoe-daniel-wins-court-battle-over-election-campaign-signs">court</a>. </p>
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<p>Another way they are taking it seriously is by trying to undermine the authenticity of the independents. If voters are seeking something different from the major parties, what better way to sway them away from changing their vote than suggesting their local independent isn’t really independent? </p>
<p>On this, the Liberal party is incorrect. It is better to locate these candidates within a lineage of independents that includes Tony Windsor, Cathy McGowan, and Kerryn Phelps. Their goal is to use the power of the cross-benches in a hung parliament. A Labor majority would, in fact, diminish their power if elected, and work against their ambitions. </p>
<h2>The power of independents</h2>
<p>Major polls are suggesting a tight race between the major parties. A hung parliament, with independents holding the balance of power, is a highly possible outcome post May 21. </p>
<p>Despite fear campaigns from both major parties, it is worth remembering that Australia’s last minority government was one of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jun/28/australia-productive-prime-minister">the most successful</a>, passing more legislation than any modern government before or since.</p>
<p>Windsor and Rob Oakeshott have both said they decided to support Julia Gillard’s government because she treated them with respect during negotiations in 2010, unlike her opponent, Tony Abbott. </p>
<p>This is a lesson that the Liberal party would do well to heed again. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-2022-election-result-in-a-hung-parliament-history-shows-australians-have-nothing-to-fear-from-it-181484">Could the 2022 election result in a hung parliament? History shows Australians have nothing to fear from it</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the Morrison government’s biggest challenges in this election campaign is the rise of the so-called ‘teals’.Amy Nethery, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1819442022-04-27T11:45:31Z2022-04-27T11:45:31ZView from The Hill: Warring within Coalition over 2050 target brings some gold dust for ‘teals’<p>“The world has moved past Matt Canavan,” Nationals deputy leader David Littleproud declared on Wednesday, tossing his party colleague and former resources minister firmly under the bus as the “climate wars” exploded within the Coalition.</p>
<p>These wars have damaged Coalition leaders for decades (right back to John Howard). Now they’ve erupted again close to the election, they threaten to burn both Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce. And that’s just when Morrison wants to turn the issue against Labor. </p>
<p>The outbreak was predictable – the issue has been smouldering ever since Morrison had the government sign up to the net zero 2050 target ahead of the Glasgow climate conference. But perhaps Morrison felt he could keep the fire smothered. If so, that underestimated Nationals maverick Queensland senator Matt Canavan. </p>
<p>Last year Morrison decided his government had to adopt the 2050 target. It was a pragmatic judgment driven by pressure from moderate Liberals facing threats in their city seats and strong external urgings from the Biden and Johnson administrations. </p>
<p>That meant getting the Nationals on board – via cajoling Joyce with huge amounts of money (for projects being rolled out in this campaign) and having the Nationals leader carry the policy within his party room. </p>
<p>Ironically, fearful their previous leader Michael McCormack might sell out on climate policy under Morrison’s pressure, the Nationals had reinstalled Joyce, one of whose strongest supporters was Canavan. </p>
<p>But then a reluctant Joyce was co-opted by the PM. He took a majority of his split party along with a deal he negotiated with Morrison, though telling his party room he was personally against the change in policy. </p>
<p>Joyce gave in but Canavan never did. He has been indefatigable in his scepticism about the 2050 target. This week said: “the net zero thing is all sort of dead anyway.</p>
<p>"Boris Johnson said he is pausing the net zero commitment, Germany is building coal and gas infrastructure, Italy’s reopening coal-fired power plants. It’s all over. It’s all over bar the shouting here.”</p>
<p>The trouble for government leaders, who are publicly treating Canavan as an outlier, is that they know he speaks for quite a few in the Coalition’s base in the deep north, and that he’ll continue to prosecute his case. </p>
<p>His latest statements came after Colin Boyce, the Liberal National Party’s candidate for the marginal seat of Flynn, which the Nationals fear losing, said earlier in the week that Morrison’s 2050 policy was “a flexible plan that leaves us wiggle room”. What precisely he meant was disputed but it was clear he is not a fan of the target, which he has rejected before.</p>
<p>Morrison on Wednesday reaffirmed the (unlegislated) policy: “We did the hard yards to get everyone together. And of course there’ll be some who disagreed with it at the time, and I suspect they still will, but that doesn’t change the government’s policy”.</p>
<p>Josh Frydenberg – who is under a lot of pressure from a “teal” candidate in his seat of Kooyong – said the target was clear, firm and non-negotiable.</p>
<p>Joyce said: “We’ve made an agreement. We’re going to honour that agreement.” </p>
<p>Joyce and Morrison were both at the same function in Rockhampton on Wednesday but (probably wisely) held separate news conferences. As the deputy PM put it, “we don’t have to be in each other’s pockets.”</p>
<p>The imbroglio feeds right into the hands of the teals. They have been saying for months that the Liberals in their sights might be moderate in name but they vote with Barnaby Joyce. </p>
<p>Now they can claim that in a re-elected government the Nationals could revert to their old policy and press Morrison to ditch the target. As Nationals minister Bridget McKenzie said on Wednesday, while insisting the party is united, “there is a very broad range of views on climate change within the National Party party room, from net zero never, to net zero yesterday”.</p>
<p>It mightn’t matter what assurances the government gives – the teal argument could likely resonate in the leafy seats (where Joyce is a trigger point).</p>
<p>We saw another version of this movie in 2019, when Labor had different slants on its climate policy in the north and the south of the country. </p>
<p>Even while it eats itself again on climate, the government is trying to conjure up a scare that Labor would bring in a “sneaky carbon tax”. </p>
<p>Labor’s emissions reduction policy has solid belts and braces this election compared to 2019. Over the past week, however, the opposition has left itself open to the inevitable Coalition attacks by its various spokespeople sounding all over the place on the impact of the policy on coal mines. </p>
<p>Although it has muddled its explanation of its plan’s precise working, Labor’s reply to the government is that its policy would simply use (robustly) the safeguards mechanism that was put in place by the Coalition. </p>
<p>How the conflicting climate policy arguments work out in the coal areas we’ve yet to see.</p>
<p>But it seems clear that in the leafy suburbs the latest outbreak of the climate wars within Coalition ranks is another blow for embattled sitting Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“The world has moved past Matt Canavan,” David Littleproud declared on Wednesday, tossing his colleague and former resources minister firmly under the bus as the “climate wars” exploded within the CoalitionMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1820592022-04-27T08:53:21Z2022-04-27T08:53:21ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Economist Saul Eslake on why Reserve Bank needs to raise rates next week<p>After Wednesday’s larger-than-expected inflation number, all attention has turned to the Reserve Bank’s meeting on Tuesday. If the bank moves next week, it will be the first time there’s been a rise in a campaign since 2007, the election John Howard lost. </p>
<p>Pointing to recent rate rises overseas, independent economist Saul Eslake says: “If the Reserve Bank were to do nothing in the face of this much sharper-than-expected acceleration in inflation, it would be leaving itself open to a charge of acting in a political way, which would undermine its credibility for an extended period. </p>
<p>"So I think the Reserve Bank really has to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.” If it doesn’t, Governor Philip Lowe would require “a very persuasive explanation”.</p>
<p>If the bank didn’t act next week, it could subsequently have to make a 75 basis points rise in one hit, “which would be a considerable shock to the mortgage-paying population in particular, but I think for small businesses and a whole lot of other participants in Australia’s economy more broadly.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182059/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan speaks with independent economist Saul Eslake on whether the reserve bank will next week raise interest rates for the first time in an election campaign for the first time since 2007Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1814212022-04-16T10:51:47Z2022-04-16T10:51:47ZMorrison defends Warringah candidate as push to oust her strengthens<p>Scott Morrison and NSW treasurer and leading moderate Matt Kean are publicly at loggerheads over the future of the prime minister’s controversial captain’s pick for the seat of Warringah. </p>
<p>Kean has declared Katherine Deves, who made offensive comments on social media about transgender people, should be disendorsed – a view shared by a number of other prominent Liberals. </p>
<p>But Morrison said on Saturday he would not join the “pile on”. </p>
<p>“I don’t share Matt’s view. I share Tony Abbott’s view. I’m not joining that pile on,” he told reporters.</p>
<p>Abbott, who lost Warringah to independent Zali Steggall in 2019, condemned the “pile on from people who claim to be supporters of women’s rights”. </p>
<p>Abbott told the Sydney Morning Herald Deves was “a tough, brave person who’s standing up for the rights of women and girls, for fairness in sport”.</p>
<p>The Deves issue exploded after news.com.au revealed her offensive social media posts, which included referring to transgender children being “surgically mutilated and sterilised”. She also said she was “triggered” by the rainbow pride flag.</p>
<p>The posts had been deleted. </p>
<p>After they were reported, she apologised for using language that was “not acceptable”. </p>
<p>Kean said on Twitter:“There is no place in a mainstream political party for bigotry. Coming out as Trans would be hugely challenging, especially for kids, and political leaders should be condemning the persecution of people based on their gender, not participating in it.”</p>
<p>He told the media: “She should be disendorsed”. . </p>
<p>Deves was one of a batch of NSW candidates chosen at the last minute by a committee headed by Morrison. He was particularly anxious to find women candidates. </p>
<p>But now Deves has become not just a drag on the vote in Warringah – which the Liberals were not expected to win from Steggall anyway – but a problem more widely. </p>
<p>Some Liberal sources say that if Deves is not removed, this could harm the Liberal vote in North Sydney and Wentworth, where there are high profile “teal” candidates. The Liberal MPs in these seats, Trent Zimmerman and Dave Sharma respectively, crossed the floor as part of a Liberal backbench revolt to protect gay and trans children. </p>
<p>There are also fears within the party that more damaging material about Deves might emerge. </p>
<p>Deves is a strong campaigner for banning transgender women from women’s sport. Morrison some days ago praised her for her activism on women’s sport but after the social media posts were revealed he said he had not been aware of her other comments. </p>
<p>Morrison on Saturday said Deves had principally been talking about ensuring fairness in sport and standing up for women and girls in sport. “And she has learnt from her experiences about how she’s sought to deal with this issue in the past. </p>
<p>"And I have no doubt that she’ll pursue these issues in a more sensitive way, a more respectful way in the future.” </p>
<p>In an email that’s had wide distribution in the Liberal party, Walter Villatora, a branch president in Warringah, has written: “The view of many experienced members is that we would suffer less of a loss without a candidate than a candidate that has brought the party into disrepute to this extent. Steggall and the media will not let this go”. </p>
<p>Liberal sources said that before Deves was chosen it was known within the party that she was a “single issue” candidate and had made some provocative comments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison and NSW treasurer and leading moderate Matt Kean are publicly at loggerheads over the future of the prime minister’s controversial captain’s pick for the seat of Warringah.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1806942022-04-05T07:58:49Z2022-04-05T07:58:49ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Court saves Morrison’s NSW preselections but what sort of campaign will Liberals run?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456307/original/file-20220405-20-wo6hp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3988%2C1982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn talk about Tuesday’s court ruling in the NSW Liberals’ factional fighting. It has given Scott Morrison a get-out-of-jail card. But it still leaves a divided party that is poorly placed to fight a campaign in a state where the government needs to win seats. They also canvass the continuing damage to the prime minister by the focus on the issue of his character.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1804932022-04-01T05:08:57Z2022-04-01T05:08:57ZVIDEO: A budget and (more) talk of bullying before voters are sent to the polls<p>University of Canberra Professional Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Associate Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>They canvass Tuesday’s giveaway budget, aimed at enticing back voters who, according to the polls, have strayed from the government in droves, and Anthony Albanese’s budget reply, which targeted aged care for its big policy announcement. </p>
<p>The week also saw Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells’ outburst against Scott Morrison, labelling him a bully, and declaring “he is not fit to be prime minister”. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professional Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Associate Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politicsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1804142022-03-31T06:18:04Z2022-03-31T06:18:04ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Josh Frydenberg is optimistic about wage growth<p>The tax offset for low and middle income earners (LMITO) will not be extended beyond this financial year, so does this amount to a tax increase for these people?</p>
<p>Treasurer Josh Frydenberg tells the podcast the offset was a “temporary measure” that was extended as fiscal stimulus, due to the pressures on the budget from COVID. It’s being removed “now that the economy is normalising”.</p>
<p>With unemployment set to fall below 4%, Frydenberg also says “what we think is going to happen is upward pressure on wages”.</p>
<p>Annual wage growth is at 2.3% but Frydenberg says there’s a “broader indicator of earnings across the economy [Average Earnings in the National Accounts (AENA)] which has been higher than where the wage price index is. It’s expected to get to 5% this year, which is above where inflation is at. That’s a broader earnings indicator, which takes into account bonuses, promotions, people moving jobs and the like.”</p>
<p>The treasurer, who holds the Victorian seat of Kooyong, is one of the Liberal members being targeted by “teal” independent candidates running on issues such as climate and the need for a federal integrity commission. </p>
<p>Frydenberg – who is more popular than Scott Morrison in the “leafy” seats – will be used to campaign where these candidates are strong. “I will give as much support as I can to my colleagues who face those opponents.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan speaks with treasurer Josh Frydenberg about the budget.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1803372022-03-30T07:33:43Z2022-03-30T07:33:43ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Next step for Morrison is visit to governor-general<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455204/original/file-20220330-5663-1csfx6q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C11%2C3970%2C1982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast, Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn talk about treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s ‘big spend’ budget, Anthony Albanese’s coming budget reply speech, a Liberal senator’s scathing review of Scott Morrison, and what the parties’ key issues will be at the election that’s about to be called.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1801332022-03-28T11:33:56Z2022-03-28T11:33:56ZBudget gives $49.5 million for aged care training, but what about wages?<p>Tuesday’s budget will provide $49.5 million for aged care training for existing workers and people who want to work in the sector.</p>
<p>With aged care beset by a shortage of staff as well as an under-trained workforce the funding, over two years, will be for an additional 15,000 subsidised vocational education and training places. </p>
<p>But the sector’s workforce shortages go centrally to the issue of low wages. </p>
<p>The Australian Aged Care Collaboration, said in a Monday statement workers in the sector “should be getting the pay they deserve and career certainty”.</p>
<p>It said the royal commission into aged care had called for higher wages, better qualifications, and more time for staff to spend with those they were caring for.</p>
<p>“As we approach the 2022 federal election, the government and opposition have both so far failed to commit fully to implement and fund the royal commission’s workforce recommendations,” AACC said.</p>
<p>AACC represents six aged care peak bodies whose membership delivers the majority of aged care services in residential and home settings across Australia. </p>
<p>The budget will be firmly focused on the May election, its centrepiece a cost of living package, with a cut in petrol excise, expected to be temporary, and cash handouts to lower and middle income earners, pensioners and others tipped to be main sweeteners.</p>
<p>The government has already unveiled a $17.9 billion infrastructure package, sparking claims the project funding is politically skewed. </p>
<p>q12
On the economic side the budget will forecast that Australia’s unemployment rate, now 4%, will fall to 3.75% in the September quarter. This would be the lowest rate since August 1974 – and three percentage points below the forecast in the October 2020 budget, delivered in COVID’s first year. </p>
<p>The budget will predict unemployment will stay historically low over the forecast period, and wages growth to pick up to their strongest in a decade. The budget’s deficit will be lower than forecast in the December mid-year update.</p>
<p>Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said on Monday:“With more people in work and less people on welfare the budget bottom line is improving after providing unprecedented economic support to Australians.</p>
<p>"But there is more to do and now is not the time to risk the gains we have made in our economic recovery with Labor’s higher taxes.” </p>
<p>Anthony Albanese stressed to reporters the budget reply he will deliver on Thursday “is a speech. It is not an alternative budget.”</p>
<p>However his reply will contain a major policy announcement. </p>
<p>Parliament is back for just one week of sitting, before the election is called for May. </p>
<p>The Senate sitting was brought forward to Monday for a condolence motion for the late Labor senator Kimberley Kitching who died of a suspected heart attack. Her death triggered contested claims that she was bullied by senior Labor women senators, allegedly dubbed “the mean girls” by Kitching and some of her supporters. </p>
<p>In her condolence speech NSW Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, who has just lost out in a preselection battle, drew parallels between her troubles and those of Kitching.</p>
<p>“The concept of mean girls is not confined to one political party,” Fierravanti-Wells said. </p>
<p>“I empathised with Kimberley about the bitter internal factional fights within our respective political parties. We both had factional enemies who desperately wanted to see us defeated, and they worked very hard at it.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tuesday’s budget will provide $49.5 million for aged care training for existing workers and people who want to work in the sector.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1799592022-03-24T11:25:18Z2022-03-24T11:25:18ZGrattan on Friday: what comes after this grinding election campaign passes?<p>Political observers hang out for when the prime minister will announce the election date, marking the start of the “campaign”. </p>
<p>This year, it hardly seems to matter, and not just because we know the election now must be on one of three dates – May 7, 14, or 21. It’s as much because the “campaign” is already with us – indeed, it has been for months. </p>
<p>Day in, day out, Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are tramping around the country, making announcements of promises, big or small. Morrison has tossed out multi billions in recent weeks for defence, a dam, vaccine production and a good deal else. </p>
<p>It’s become a blur whether the commitments are fresh or re-burnished, the money new or from some existing pot. Long-term timetables further muddy things.</p>
<p>Promises for specific seats may be in a special category, but you have to wonder how much of this continuous campaigning voters are taking in.</p>
<p>They may be left with general impressions, but many people’s attention would be minimal, or delayed until closer to when they have to mark their ballots. Or at least until next week’s budget, when they will look for some cost of living relief. </p>
<p>Anyway, just for today let’s leave this cacophony of rhetoric from the leaders in their hi-vis uniforms, and jump ahead to what the political landscape might be like after May.</p>
<p>First, let’s assume a Labor win, with the new government having a majority. </p>
<p>Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers said this week Labor would bring down a fresh budget before year’s end. From what we know of the economic and fiscal outlook to be outlined in Tuesday’s budget, the newly-minted treasurer would be working in a favourable setting. </p>
<p>How much of Josh Frydenberg’s budget an Albanese government might unpick will become clearer before the election, but there would also be surprises in the Chalmers one. Labor has said it would look at where there’s presently waste, allowing for funds to be reallocated, which would inevitably mean some losers.</p>
<p>Before that budget, PM Albanese would convene a jobs summit, including business, unions, all levels of government, and community representatives. </p>
<p>This would be broadly modelled on Bob Hawke’s economic summit of 1983; it is part of Albanese’s mantra that he would govern in the Hawke “consensus” style. The summit would be as important for its symbolism as its outcomes.</p>
<p>Summits need to be carefully handled. Hawke’s 1985 tax summit, promised before the 1984 election, ended in an imbroglio. Kevin Rudd’s 2008 “Australia 2020” summit over-promised and under-delivered.</p>
<p>Albanese has also flagged he wants to tackle reforming the federation, saying “we need a clearer delineation of who is responsible for what”. If he is really serious about such a “clearer delineation” – and he’s not provided details – achieving it would be a big task that has eluded governments before. </p>
<p>After Labor’s South Australian win, Albanese would have the advantage of Labor being in power in four of the five mainland states (with the possibility of its winning in NSW next year). Not that having federal and state governments of the same hue automatically guarantees smooth relations. </p>
<p>On the legislative front, the new Labor government would be putting into law its 2050 net zero target – as well as preparing for Australia to take a higher profile at the next UN climate change conference, in Egypt in November. </p>
<p>It would also be working on its model for a national integrity commission, to which it has firmly committed. </p>
<p>On the other side, the Liberals and Nationals would be shattered but not surprised by their loss, and mired in the usual recriminations that follow defeat. How quickly the new opposition was able to regroup could depend on the size of the Labor win (and hence the chance of making it a one term government). </p>
<p>The battle for Liberal leader would likely be a face off between Frydenberg and Peter Dutton, who are both showing their paces for the future as key frontline players in the struggle to keep the Morrison government in office. </p>
<p>The centrist Frydenberg would be favoured by the moderates in the Liberal party and (from this distance out) the frontrunner. Dutton would be the conservatives’ candidate. </p>
<p>As opposition leader, Frydenberg’s treasury background would give him an advantage in taking the economic debate up to Labor. Dutton would probably follow the Tony Abbott model, using bare knuckle tactics to try to tear down the Albanese government. </p>
<p>Flip the coin and assume the Coalition winning with a majority: the Morrison agenda is sketchy, a version of more of the same. Morrison would be unlikely to transform into the ambitious reformer, regardless of the wishes of some in the business community and in the Liberals’ base. </p>
<p>His approach would likely continue to be a managerial one. As one Liberal man says, “He’s not a policy guy. He’s not a conviction politician. His objective is remaining in power.” </p>
<p>Also, Morrison would have the constraints of his majority almost certainly being extremely narrow. </p>
<p>Not in the short term, but after a year or so, speculation would turn to the leadership. There would be pressure for a transition, a realisation the government could not go around again with Morrison. </p>
<p>After another election defeat, following (once again) high expectations of victory, Labor morale would be rock bottom. The new leader would face a massive job in rebuilding. </p>
<p>Those potentially with an eye to opposition leadership would include Jim Chalmers, Tanya Plibersek, Richard Marles, Chris Bowen, and Tony Burke. Possibly Bill Shorten. </p>
<p>Of this list, only Plibersek is from the left. The field would quickly whittle itself down, probably leaving only two – perhaps Chalmers versus Plibersek. Assuming a contest, the leader would be chosen by a combination of caucus and rank and file ballots on a 50-50 basis. </p>
<p>The third potential election outcome is a hung parliament. And that takes us into the realm of maximum uncertainty. </p>
<p>The present crossbenchers are coy about how they’d play the situation. There is general wariness on the crossbench about the sort of formal agreements we saw in the Gillard days. </p>
<p>Regardless of whether Morrison or Albanese ended up PM in the hung parliament, the crossbenchers – with most of the existing ones being likely returned and possibly at least one new face in their ranks – would be extracting action on issues they cared about. </p>
<p>A hung parliament can bring out the best or the worst features of the parliamentary system, or a combination of both.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Political observers hang out for when the prime minister will announce the election date, marking the start of the “campaign”.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795552022-03-18T05:39:29Z2022-03-18T05:39:29ZVIDEO: Campaigning in WA, Morrison distinguishes good Labor from bad Labor<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Change Governance Dr Lain Dare discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>With Anthony Albanese drawing level with Scott Morrison as “better PM” in Newspoll, they canvass the PM’s ill-judged dig at the opposition leader over his ‘makeover’, and Morrison’s attempt to make WA Premier Mark McGowan his new best friend while campaigning in Western Australia.</p>
<p>They also discuss the priorities for the March 29 budget that Josh Frydenberg has outlined – some targeted help on the cost of living and an attack on the nation’s debt. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Change Governance Dr Lain Dare discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1794872022-03-17T11:33:03Z2022-03-17T11:33:03ZFrydenberg targets budget at cost of living and attacking debt<p>The March 29 budget will contain “targeted and proportionate” help for families with cost of living pressures and move fiscal policy towards stabilising and reducing debt.</p>
<p>These are the messages in Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s speech, released before its Friday delivery, laying out the priorities and fiscal setting of the budget, which will be a launch pad for the government’s campaign for the May election. </p>
<p>“The time for large scale, economy-wide emergency support is over,” Frydenberg says, pointing to where the government has already ended emergency measures and rejected requests for more support. </p>
<p>Fiscal settings “need to be normalised,” with the government moving to the next phase of its fiscal strategy. </p>
<p>Government sources stressed this doesn’t mean the government is planning to start cutting. Rather, they said, it aims to control new spending while continuing to grow the economy so there can be a steady then declining ratio of debt to GDP. </p>
<p>With the government under pressure over the cost of living, especially with the soaring of petrol prices, Frydenberg points to what it has done on power prices, child care and tax. </p>
<p>In the budget “there will be further measures to support families to meet the cost of living pressures, in a targeted and proportionate way”, he says.</p>
<p>His speech comes as unemployment fell to 4% in February, in figures released on Thursday. This is the equal lowest in 48 years.</p>
<p>“The Australian economy has recovered strongly and now has real momentum,” Frydenberg says. </p>
<p>“The initial phase of our fiscal strategy has delivered on its objective, with full employment in sight.” The budget “will show the fiscal dividend of this strong recovery.</p>
<p>"With our recovery well underway it is now time to move to the next phase of our fiscal strategy. </p>
<p>"This will see a focus on stabilising and then reducing debt as a share of the economy. Rebuilding our fiscal buffers without risking growth.” </p>
<p>Frydenberg says the budget “will confirm that this is the trajectory we are now on”.</p>
<p>The bottom line will show “substantial improvement”, he says, a result of more people in work and fewer on welfare. </p>
<p>Gross debt as a proportion of GDP will be forecast to peak lower than expected in the December budget update. It is projected to decline over the medium term. </p>
<p>“This is the fiscal dividend of a strong economy”. </p>
<p>Frydenberg stresses the uncertainties ahead, including the pandemic’s continued presence and the war in Europe which has heightened geopolitical risk and threatens global economic growth. Supply chains are strained, and energy prices and inflation are being driven up. </p>
<p>“As we saw entering this crisis, a strong budget and a strong economy put us in the best position to respond. </p>
<p>"That is why it is important to move to the next phase of our fiscal strategy, which will stabilise and reduce debt as a share of the economy”. </p>
<p>Frydenberg emphasises the need for the pace of fiscal consolidation to be gradual.</p>
<p>“It is about striking the right balance. A sharp and sudden tightening in the fiscal settings would likely be counterproductive, undermining the economic recovery and ultimately hurting the budget.” </p>
<p>He says Australia’s debt to GDP levels, even when they peak, will remain low by international standards. “Even as interest rates gradually rise, our debt servicing costs will remain manageable”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The March 29 budget will contain “targeted and proportionate” help for families with cost of living pressures and move fiscal policy towards stabilising and reducing debt.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1784022022-03-09T19:03:40Z2022-03-09T19:03:40ZCanada eyes Australia’s media code to pay for news but wants more ‘transparency’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450819/original/file-20220308-13-1uw21t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Google and Meta have reportedly paid more than <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/big-tech-news-bargaining-code-a-success-not-to-be-repeated-accc-boss-20220225-p59zs9">A$200 million</a> to Australian news outlets since the Morrison government introduced the groundbreaking News Media Bargaining Code a year ago. Yet Canada boasts that its own version of the code will do better.</p>
<p>Canadian Heritage Minister Pablo Rodriguez <a href="https://pressgazette.co.uk/canada-online-news-act-google-meta-facebook/">claims</a> the online news bill he intends to introduce in the Ottawa parliament within months will also force Google and Meta to pay media outlets for third-party news content on their sites. But he argues it will be a “more transparent” version of the Australian code.</p>
<p>His key criticism of the Australian version was that it handed power to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg through “designation”, rather than to an independent regulator. This, he says, will force big technology companies to negotiate deals with media outlets: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In our case, it’s not going to be the minister that will designate. […] there are going to be criteria set by the regulator that will clearly identify who are in an imbalanced situation and require them to sit down with news organisations and get into a deal.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Australia’s code – which uses competition rather than the European model of copyright law to compel Google and Meta to pay for news – has attracted <a href="https://www.techdirt.com/2021/07/01/denmarks-media-companies-form-copyright-collective-to-force-google-facebook-to-pay-more-sending-them-traffic/">international attention</a>. In the past fortnight, Canadian and US journalists have visited our shores to <a href="https://www.cjr.org/business_of_news/australia-pressured-google-and-facebook-to-pay-for-journalism-is-america-next.php">report on it</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-news-media-bargaining-code-fit-for-purpose-172224">Is the news media bargaining code fit for purpose?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Since the code was introduced, Frydenberg has resisted using this designation power, so only voluntary deals have been done between the technology giants and news companies. This has created clear winners and losers.</p>
<p>The winners generally have been legacy and larger media outlets such as Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, Nine Entertainment, the ABC, The Guardian and networks of regional newspapers such as Australian Community Media. The ACCC <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/focus-areas/digital-platforms/news-media-bargaining-code/appendix">estimates</a> Google has secured 20 media deals (including with The Conversation), while Meta has made 14 deals.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450820/original/file-20220308-17665-v6h697.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450820/original/file-20220308-17665-v6h697.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450820/original/file-20220308-17665-v6h697.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450820/original/file-20220308-17665-v6h697.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450820/original/file-20220308-17665-v6h697.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450820/original/file-20220308-17665-v6h697.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450820/original/file-20220308-17665-v6h697.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">So far, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has resisted using his designation powers, leaving media outlets to broker deals for themselves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Media outlets left without Meta deals include public interest journalism publications such as The Conversation and SBS. There has also been little provided for smaller media start-ups in need of funds to help diversify Australia’s highly concentrated news landscape under the code. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fact-checking-can-actually-harm-trust-in-media-new-research-176032">Fact-checking can actually harm trust in media: new research</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Excluding these outlets runs counter to the Australian government’s <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22legislation%2Fems%2Fr6652_ems_2fe103c0-0f60-480b-b878-1c8e96cf51d2%22">aim</a> to address “bargaining power imbalances between the digital platforms and Australian news media”. </p>
<p>This failure to get some deals done led the outgoing chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/26/reining-in-the-digital-giants-rod-sims-on-the-trials-and-triumphs-of-a-decade-as-head-of-the-consumer-watchdog">Rod Sims</a> – a chief architect of the code – to complain it was “inexplicable” these outlets were excluded.</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://newsinasia.jninstitute.org/chapter/the-grand-bargain-australias-news-media-bargaining-code/">criticisms</a> of the code have been that commercial in-confidence arrangements mean no one knows exactly how much money has flowed to media companies ($200 million is the ACCC’s estimate) and that there is actually no legal requirement for this money to be spent on journalism.</p>
<p>The Canadian minister acknowledges that media companies have legitimate commercial sensitivities, but criticises the lack of transparency in the Australian code. On this issue he has been <a href="https://pressgazette.co.uk/canada-online-news-act-google-meta-facebook/">explicit</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>One of the things we want to do differently from Australia is to be more transparent. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The fact these criticisms come from the Canadian government is notable. The Trudeau administration has been a vocal supporter of the Australian reform process, along with many other <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018822197/new-collective-bid-to-make-tech-titans-pay-for-nz-news">countries</a>. </p>
<p>Rodriguez’s comments suggest that, while other countries are keen to adopt the reform, most will work to improve on the deal that emerged from the series of high-stakes negotiations in early 2021, which prompted Facebook to briefly <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebook-has-pulled-the-trigger-on-news-content-and-possibly-shot-itself-in-the-foot-155547">pull</a> news off its platform. </p>
<p>Australia might even consider thinking about adopting some of these international modifications. Frydenberg marked the one-year anniversary of the Australian code last week by announcing a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018822197/new-collective-bid-to-make-tech-titans-pay-for-nz-news">review</a> of its performance, to report by September 2022.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/facebook-has-pulled-the-trigger-on-news-content-and-possibly-shot-itself-in-the-foot-155547">Facebook has pulled the trigger on news content — and possibly shot itself in the foot</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The review is a chance for industry stakeholders, policymakers and researchers to assess the impact of the code in its first year of operation. Of course, many participants who secured deals will be pleased. However, the review must consider outstanding issues such as greater transparency, rigorous criteria around designation, and expenditure.</p>
<p>As the code continues to operate, we must also consider the long-term impacts of platform payments. A yearly injection of $200 million into the Australian media market is not transformative, but it is enough to make an impact. Finding out how that money has been spent is now a critical task and more answers are needed. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>To what extent can we credit the code for the recent upsurge in recruitment in some of our larger media companies’ newsrooms? </p></li>
<li><p>What are the experiences of the smaller media outlets that have struggled to even get a reply from Google and Meta? </p></li>
<li><p>Is the code doing enough to assist regional and remote towns that no longer have access to local news? </p></li>
<li><p>And what impact, if any, do other funding schemes such as the Facebook Australian News Fund that Meta has established with the <a href="https://www.walkleys.com/the-walkley-foundation-and-meta-reveal-54-recipients-in-15m-funding-programs-first-round/">Walkley Foundation</a> have on public interest journalism? </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Local and regional journalism that covers council meetings, courts and times of crises such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/mar/03/nsw-flood-affected-towns-turn-to-facebook-and-whatsapp-after-local-news-sources-disappear">flood and bushfire emergencies</a> are fundamental to Australian democracy and our well-being. This is where the disruption in the news media has had a significant impact in the past two decades. <a href="https://piji.com.au/research-and-inquiries/our-research/anmp/">Research</a> shows parts of Australia have become “news deserts”, with no local media coverage.</p>
<p>While the review of the code is welcome, ongoing research is vital to help reveal whether it has contributed positively to the renewal of Australian journalism, or simply stabilised established players.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Carson receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Meta for research. She is also a member of the Public Interest Journalism Initiative's academic research advisory group. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dodd is a member of the Public Interest Journalism Initiative's academic research advisory group.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Meese receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Meta. He has also made single and co-authored submissions to the ACCC Digital Platforms Inquiry. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johan Lidberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s News Media Bargaining Code has garnered global interest – but the Canadians want a model with more transparency.Andrea Carson, Associate Professor, Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy, La Trobe UniversityAndrew Dodd, Director of the Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneJames Meese, Research Fellow, Technology, Communication and Policy Lab, RMIT UniversityJohan Lidberg, Associate Professor, School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1770552022-02-17T03:14:21Z2022-02-17T03:14:21ZA bad Newspoll for the Greens; Willoughby NSW byelection could be close<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446889/original/file-20220217-22-1kmv0qk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s Newspoll, conducted February 9-12 from a sample of 1,526, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the late January Newspoll. Primary votes were 41% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (steady), 8% Greens (down three), 3% One Nation (steady) and 14% for all Others (up three).</p>
<p>40% were satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (up one), and 56% were dissatisfied (down two), for a net approval of -16. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down six to -6. Morrison increased his better PM lead from 43-41 to 43-38. Figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/13/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-5/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>For most of this term, Newspolls have been published every three weeks, but this Newspoll was released a fortnight after the previous one. That suggests Newspoll will be fortnightly in the lead-up to the federal election.</p>
<p>The big story is the three-point drop in the Greens’ primary vote. It’s possible some Greens supporters are not enamoured with the <a href="https://contact-federalmps.greens.org.au/civicrm/mailing/view?reset=1&id=a519696c3b80d216">Greens’ anti-Labor rhetoric</a>
and so switched to Labor, and that the Greens are also losing support to climate independents.</p>
<p>If the Greens lost support to Labor, why isn’t Labor up? It’s possible Labor lost support to the Coalition, but the Coalition lost ground to vaccine-sceptical others like Clive Palmer’s UAP.</p>
<p>The overall Labor lead of 55-45 is still strong for Labor, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-byelections-preview-federal-coalition-rebounds-in-essential-poll-176348">Essential last week</a>
gave Labor just a one-point lead after preferences. Essential and Resolve, which have been the worst polls for Labor since late 2021, are likely to both be published next week.</p>
<h2>NSW byelection updates: Willoughby could be close</h2>
<p>After originally selecting the Greens as the Liberals’ two candidate opponent in Willoughby, the Electoral Commission has nearly finished re-doing this count as Liberal vs independent Larissa Penn.</p>
<p>Based on preference flows from polling places that have reported a Liberal vs Penn count, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2022/guide/will">ABC is estimating</a> 51.7-48.3 to Liberal from the current primary votes. But postals have not yet been counted, and there are almost as many <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/16/new-south-wales-by-elections-live/">postals received</a> to date as votes counted so far.</p>
<p>I suggested in <a href="https://theconversation.com/mixed-nsw-byelection-results-do-not-imply-voters-in-a-baseball-bat-mood-176879">Sunday’s article</a> that, if more left-leaning voters were anxious about COVID, the postals could skew left. Postals almost always skew right in Australian elections, but far fewer people vote by post than at these byelections.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mixed-nsw-byelection-results-do-not-imply-voters-in-a-baseball-bat-mood-176879">Mixed NSW byelection results do not imply voters in a 'baseball bat' mood</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the other byelections, Labor’s two party share in Bega dropped from 57.1% on election night to 55.6%, still a 12.6% swing to Labor. In Strathfield, Labor rose from 54.4% to 55.7%, a 0.7% swing to them that was negative on election night. In Monaro, the Nationals were down from 55.0% to 54.9%, a 6.7% swing to Labor.</p>
<p>These changes from the election night figures mainly reflect the addition of pre-poll booths that were not counted on election night. Postal votes will not start being counted until Saturday.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: Frydenberg preferred as Liberal leader</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446890/original/file-20220217-22668-1lhkrc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446890/original/file-20220217-22668-1lhkrc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446890/original/file-20220217-22668-1lhkrc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446890/original/file-20220217-22668-1lhkrc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446890/original/file-20220217-22668-1lhkrc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446890/original/file-20220217-22668-1lhkrc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446890/original/file-20220217-22668-1lhkrc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Morgan SMS poll had Josh Frydenberg as preferred Liberal leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8902-australia-preference-of-liberal-leader-february-2022-202202160524">Morgan federal SMS</a> poll, conducted February 14-15 from a sample of 1,080, had 38.5% of voters preferring Treasurer Josh Frydenberg as Liberal leader, 31% incumbent PM Scott Morrison and 12.5% Defence Minister Peter Dutton.</p>
<p>Coalition voters still had Morrison first with 40%, Frydenberg at 32.5% and Dutton 12.5%. Dutton had his highest ratings (22%), with the independent/other category, which would include One Nation.</p>
<h2>Australian jobs report: little change in January despite COVID crisis</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://contact-federalmps.greens.org.au/civicrm/mailing/view?reset=1&id=a519696c3b80d216">ABS released</a> the January Australian jobs report Thursday. Despite the massive COVID surge in early to mid-January, there was little change from December. Unemployment was steady at 4.2% and underemployment and participation both up 0.1% to 6.7% and 66.2% respectively. This <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-17/unemployment-jobs-january-2022/100839210">ABC report</a> focuses on the drop in hours worked, which are likely to rebound in February.</p>
<p>The 4.2% unemployment is <a href="https://theconversation.com/newspoll-has-labors-biggest-lead-since-turnbulls-ousting-as-coalition-damaged-by-covid-175835">tied with December</a> as Australia’s lowest since August 2008, just before the global financial crisis. The employment population ratio – the percentage of eligible Australians employed – increased 0.1% to 63.4%, and is higher than at any prior point on the ABS chart in the past ten years.</p>
<p>Bad COVID outbreaks are having a diminishing impact on the overall economy; this was the case in the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">US in January</a> too. While the jobs situation is good for the government, inflation is not so good.</p>
<h2>WA poll: McGowan’s approval slumps to 64%</h2>
<p>From the front page of <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLowo4fUcAk-Gom?format=jpg&name=medium">Wednesday’s West Australian</a>, a People’s Voice poll has WA Premier Mark McGowan at 64% approval, 25% disapproval (net +39).</p>
<p>While a 64% approval is very good by most standards, McGowan had a 91% approval rating in late 2020, with just 5% disapproving. His approval dropped to 77% in November 2021.</p>
<h2>US Democrats gain in redistricting, but Biden’s ratings still poor</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/15/us-democrats-continue-to-gain-in-redistricting/">The Poll Bludger</a> Tuesday that redistricting of the 435 US federal House seats occurs once a decade after a Census. So far this cycle, Democrats are up 11, Republicans down three and competitive down eight. But Joe Biden has almost overtaken Donald Trump in having the worst net approval of any president at this stage of their term since approval polling began.</p>
<p>Also covered in this article: Boris Johnson remains UK Prime Minister despite the “PartyGate” scandal, the centre-left Socialists won a majority at the Portuguese election, and Emmanuel Macron likely to be re-elected at French presidential elections in April.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new poll shows a 3% drop in the Greens’ primary vote, while another has Josh Frydenberg ahead of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton as preferred Liberal leader.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.