tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/m5s-50151/articlesM5S – The Conversation2019-05-21T09:57:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1161982019-05-21T09:57:35Z2019-05-21T09:57:35ZHow European elections could lead to collapse of yet another Italian government<p>Since Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, interior minister and leader of the League, announced in April 2019 his intention to create a new continent-wide eurosceptic group in the European Parliament – the European Alliance for Peoples and Nations (EAPN) – there has been much speculation about what it <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c4a7f348-77fe-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201">may do following the European elections</a>. But the fact that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from France, Geert Wilders’ Party of Freedom from the Netherlands, the Belgian Vlaams Belang, the Danish People’s party and others have all agreed to join suggests that Salvini is now recognised as a successful leader well beyond Italy’s borders.</p>
<p>It’s interesting to reflect on why Salvini is bothering at all. After all, his main focus since becoming the League’s leader in 2013 <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13597566.2018.1512977">has been on domestic politics</a>. But he is ultimately eyeing the Italian premiership, so it matters if he is acknowledged as someone who is able to set the agenda in Europe. The fact that Salvini headlined a <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2019/05/18/salvini-and-le-pen-headline-european-nationalist-rally-in-milan?fbclid=IwAR1Pk7JYUIKov59TwjgAO59c_WD7ZT7Stel24PH2Bsk93EaRVyxa-0UthyE">eurosceptic protest</a> in Milan on May 18, which was also attended by several populist, radical right leaders from across Europe – including Le Pen and Wilders – is further evidence of this.</p>
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<p>But bad news has been piling up on Salvini and his party in recent weeks – and while the League is still expected to do extremely well in the forthcoming European elections, its final tally is likely to be lower than predicted only a month ago.</p>
<h2>A negative trend?</h2>
<p>In April, the League was expected to win <a href="https://www.corriere.it/politica/19_aprile_20/sondaggio-ipsos-lega-sfiora-37percento-frenata-m5s-sono-223percento-ma-pd-resta-staccato-ba3eca7e-62d4-11e9-a7fc-361228882fb7.shtml">37% of the Italian vote</a>, but support for the party has been shrinking in recent weeks. It has now dropped to around 30%, <a href="https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2019/05/10/sondaggi-europee-ora-la-lega-perde-voti-dal-36-al-30-m5s-in-recupero-al-249-anche-il-pd-sale-sopra-il-20-per-cento/5167780/">according to some polls</a>. Nevertheless, after securing just 6.2% in <a href="http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2014/elezioni/europee/italia.html">the last European election</a>, that would still be an extremely strong performance by the League.</p>
<p>If the final tally ends up coming in under 30%, you can expect most Italian commentators to focus on the party haemorrhaging support in the run-up to the election – rather than the number of additional seats it would have captured.</p>
<p>Salvini’s personal approval rating has also dropped by 7% (from 59% to 52%) in the <a href="http://www.demos.it/a01603.php">last two months</a>, and opposition to his policies and persona has become more <a href="https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2019/05/18/news/salvini_milano_piazza_duomo_le_pen_striscioni_corteo-226556047/?ref=RHPPLF-BH-I226490206-C8-P4-S1.8-T1">vocal across Italy</a>. In the meantime, the League’s partner in government, the Five Star Movement (M5S), and the opposition Democratic Party, have both regained ground.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2019/05/08/news/dimissioni_siri_consiglio_dei_ministri-225735716/">forced departure from government</a> of the League’s undersecretary for transport, Armando Siri, as he faces an investigation into alleged corruption, has taken a toll, too. M5S used to let Salvini dominate the agenda, but is now asserting itself as the dominant coalition partner, and very much lobbied the prime minister, Giuseppe Conte to get rid of Siri.</p>
<p>Indeed, if the League’s result in the European elections suggests to Salvini that the party’s star is waning, he may be tempted to cut his losses and put an end to the coalition government. What would follow such a move, however, is highly uncertain.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>The autumn budget would be the perfect opportunity for Salvini to take radical action. Because of agreements successive Italian executives have made with the European Commission to keep the country’s deficit under control, the League and M5S will need to find savings of about €23 billion – or else raise VAT.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/matteo-salvini-just-avoided-facing-a-kidnap-trial-thanks-to-an-online-vote-111979">Matteo Salvini just avoided facing a kidnap trial – thanks to an online vote</a>
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<p>Salvini and M5S leader, Luigi Di Maio, have repeated many times that they have no intention of <a href="https://www.ilmessaggero.it/politica/iva_tria_di_maio-4435951.html">approving such a hike</a>, aware that it would impact negatively on the economy, and obviously be noticed by consumers. Given the sluggish economy in recent months, however, it is unclear how the government can avoid it.</p>
<p>Salvini has so far refrained from cashing in on the considerable popularity he has enjoyed since becoming interior minister about a year ago, to try and force fresh elections. But the combination of shrinking support for the League and having to deliver unpopular financial measures could tilt the balance in favour of such a move. It would also allow Salvini to avoid taking responsibility for a budget “written by Brussels”.</p>
<p>But if he wants to dissolve the government and hold another election, Salvini’s narrative will need to change fast – so far, he has sold himself as <a href="https://www.quotidiano.net/politica/matteo-salvini-governo-1.4552859">a force for stability</a>, an image out of step with forcing Italy to the polls yet again.</p>
<p>Then there is the question of whether fresh elections could even be held as quickly as Salvini would like. After all, the executive could simply end up being replaced by another, supported by a different governing majority, as, if this government collapses, parliamentary arithmetic means that no single party, or leader, would be in control of what happens next. </p>
<p>If M5S gives the League a good reason to take the plunge – and particularly if the League can credibly frame its coalition partner as wishing to comply with the EU’s fiscal requirements and standing in the way of further tax cuts – then the game may be on. </p>
<p>But these are big ifs. If Salvini decides to act, expect his narrative to change rapidly over coming months and, providing he has his way, new elections in spring 2020. The bottom line is that Salvini’s next big moves could be brought about by the League’s problems, rather than its successes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116198/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniele Albertazzi has received funding from AHRC, British Academy, the Leverhulme Trust and the ESRC.</span></em></p>The League is rapidly losing support and its leader, Matteo Salvini, may take drastic action.Daniele Albertazzi, Senior Lecturer in European Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1119792019-02-20T13:38:41Z2019-02-20T13:38:41ZMatteo Salvini just avoided facing a kidnap trial – thanks to an online vote<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/matteo-salvini-50673">Matteo Salvini</a>, Italy’s interior minister and deputy prime minister, has avoided facing trial for kidnapping thanks to an online vote by members of the Five Star Movement. But this surprising situation has exposed the fissures that lie just below the surface for the Italian government.</p>
<p>Salvini’s League came to power in June 2018 after striking an unlikely coalition deal with the populist <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/five-star-movement-4953">Five Star Movement</a> (M5S). Their government promised radical change. Yet the Italian economy is now battling a worrying recession. It has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative growth. And, just like in Silvio Berlusconi’s time, the government is facing legal turmoil. </p>
<p>Although the specific charges and the actors involved are very different this time, it is striking that the broader picture has not changed much. Economic uncertainty and tensions between judiciary and executive still dominate the news. They also threaten to further destabilise Italy’s already fragile political system. </p>
<h2>Kidnap charges</h2>
<p>At the end of January, prosecutors in Catania, Sicily, asked the Italian Senate to <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20190125/italy-salvini-may-face-trial-for-kidnapping-migrants-diciotti">authorise a trial</a> against Salvini. They wanted to bring charges against him for kidnapping and detaining 177 migrants by refusing to let them disembark from their ship when it docked in Catania seeking refuge in August 2018. Salvini had refused to accept the arrivals while he tried to negotiate with the EU to get other member states to take them in. </p>
<p>Immediately following the incident in Catania, tensions began to emerge within the M5S. Its leader Luigi Di Maio – who is also deputy prime minister – openly supported Salvini. However, other factions within the movement were critical of how Salvini handled the crisis. They included the M5S wing most closely affiliated with Roberto Fico, the president of the lower chamber. </p>
<p>When the prosecutors officially requested authorisation from parliament to proceed against Salvini, the MS5 faced a major dilemma. It would be MS5 senators who would have the deciding vote on whether to lift Salvini’s immunity so that he would be forced to face the trial.</p>
<p>Had this vote taken place two years ago, the M5S senators would have almost certainly voted in favour of lifting the immunity without much debate. Their political conviction that judges should be trusted more than politicians would have prevailed (the term <em>giustizialismo</em> is used to define this almost unconditional support for the judiciary). After all, the M5S has long regarded parliamentary immunity as the ultimate embodiment of the political elite’s lack of accountability. </p>
<p>Today, however, the situation is very different. For M5S, the League is both an ally and a rival. Its leaders are torn between adopting a more confrontational approach and protecting the stability of a government in which they have invested most of their political capital. </p>
<h2>Online poll</h2>
<p>When faced with questions like this, the M5S takes an interesting approach. Its leaders resort to web democracy to find a way out of political impasses. In this case, that has meant inviting M5S members to vote in an online poll to decide whether their senators should vote to strip Salvini of his immunity.</p>
<p>This kind of process was initially portrayed as a political revolution. Citizens would be able to directly participate in key decision-making processes. However, web democracy has gradually become an instrument for legitimising the hard choices that have to be made by M5S leaders – particularly when they are about to contradict some of the founding principles of the movement. This time, the vote was used to challenge the movement’s core idea that politicians should not be shielded from judicial scrutiny.</p>
<p>Many members, including M5S leader Beppe Grillo, complained that the question asked in the online poll was ambiguous. The voting process was also marred by technical problems and the poll was closed more than an hour later than planned. The eventual result was decided by 59% of members voting to allow Salvini to keep his immunity. M5S senators <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/19/italian-senate-group-votes-block-criminal-case-against-matteo-salvini">voted accordingly</a> the next day and Salvini will avoid trial. Nevertheless, some M5S members of parliament openly criticised the decision. </p>
<h2>Eyes on Brussels</h2>
<p>A vote in favour of Salvini’s trial would have seriously compromised the stability of the government just three months ahead of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/france-and-italy-a-deeper-rift-over-europe-lies-behind-the-current-crisis-111458">European elections</a>. Both M5S and the League are using the election as an opportunity to campaign against EU institutions and Emmanuel Macron’s pan-European liberal project. A governmental crisis would have forced them to reframe their political discourse.</p>
<p>That said, it is likely that the M5S will pay a price for its decision to support Salvini in this case. Internal criticism towards Di Maio’s leadership is growing. The senate vote is seen as the last of a series of costly political concessions aimed at preserving a coalition that is not fully delivering on the movement’s promises. On the other hand, Salvini has been much more assertive in setting his red lines and priorities (although they have not always translated into concrete legislative acts). </p>
<p>The electoral trajectories of two parties have been diverging for months – as suggested by opinion polls. The recent regional <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-10/italy-s-populist-allies-clash-in-test-of-strength-at-ballot-box">election in Abruzzo</a> (held on February 10) saw the League become the largest party in a southern Italian region for the first time. It doubled its share of the vote in less than one year. The M5S, meanwhile, lost half its electoral support. It performed even worse than in the 2014 election, when it was badly defeated by the centre-left Democratic Party.</p>
<p>Saving Salvini enables Italy’s coalition government to continue for now – but this case has exposed the fault lines that could cause serious disruption in the long term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Davide Vampa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Italy’s deputy prime minister remains immune from prosecution because his coalition partners, the Five Star Movement, let members vote online to uphold it.Davide Vampa, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/977152018-06-05T13:14:13Z2018-06-05T13:14:13ZItaly’s new government is on a collision course with EU fiscal rules – it’s time for eurozone reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221538/original/file-20180604-175414-1tfvxd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Man the lifeboats!</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paper-ship-italian-european-flag-concept-422831047?src=kFW2f9YAj1xqNTtIB-Bcgg-1-6">Miriam Doerr Martin Fromherz</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the end it happened: after a lengthy process and some <em>coups de théâtre</em>, Italy’s two populist parties, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Lega, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44322429">have managed</a> to form a government. </p>
<p>Their route to power was nearly thwarted by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/italys-political-crisis-is-a-moment-of-reckoning-for-european-liberal-democracy-97387">constitutional dispute</a> in which Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, refused to accept the two parties’ original nomination of Paolo Savona as economy minister. Savona, an economics professor, <a href="https://scenarieconomici.it/il-piano-b-per-litalia-nella-sua-interezza/">had outlined</a> in a 2015 conference a “Plan B” on how to exit the eurozone, which contained the striking statement that no popular vote or referendum would be required. </p>
<p>Mattarella explained that <a href="http://www.quirinale.it/elementi/Continua.aspx?tipo=Discorso&key=835">he had rejected</a> Savona’s nomination because the post required a “representative of the majority”, who “may not be seen as the promoter of a line of reasoning, often manifested, that could probably, or even inevitably, provoke Italy’s exit from the euro”. </p>
<p>The constitutional stalemate has now been solved by moving Savona to a different ministry – <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20180526/paolo-savona-the-eurosceptic-at-the-heart-of-italys-standoff">EU affairs</a> – and appointing an alternative economy minister, a professor, Giovanni Tria. He has been judged to be <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20180601/giovanni-tria-italy-pro-euro-finance-minister">less inimical</a> to euro membership, despite being broadly critical of the eurozone’s functioning.</p>
<p>The key two key questions for Italy now are: first, whether the new government’s fiscal stimulus plan is compatible with eurozone rules; and second, whether Italy’s quest for “fiscal sovereignty” is really being thwarted by euro membership. </p>
<h2>Italy in the eurozone</h2>
<p>Let’s start with the second question. By joining the eurozone, Italy lost its ability to devalue, and there were fears that its trade balance would deteriorate. As we know from the UK, however, having your own floating currency <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments">does not necessarily</a> translate to a trade surplus. </p>
<p>In any case, Italy’s competitive position has arguably improved markedly in recent years. Following a period of trade deficits during 2002-11, since mid-2012 the country has been running a <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/balance-of-trade">healthy trade surplus</a>, thanks to a <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/exports">major surge</a> in export growth. </p>
<p>Italy has also benefited hugely from much lower interest rates since joining the euro. In 1992 Italy’s ten-year bond yields were around 7.5 percentage points above Germany’s. By monetary union in 2002 the gap was around 5.1 points. </p>
<p>Last week, despite the political crisis, Italy’s treasury was still managing to issue ten-year bonds at 3%, around 1.6 points above German bund yields. Yes the spreads were <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-bond-yield">much higher</a> in the wake of the eurozone crisis, but they have since been driven down, thanks to the European Central Bank’s <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-poll/ecb-to-end-qe-by-dec-but-should-do-so-sooner-economists-idUKKBN1F81TJ">quantitative easing</a>, creating a boon for the stretched Italian exchequer in the process. </p>
<p><strong>Italian ten-year bond yields, 1990-2018</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221514/original/file-20180604-175434-urbmb6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-bond-yield">Trading Economics</a></span>
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<p>So let’s do an economics <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Gedankenexperiment"><em>Gedankenexperiment</em></a>. What would happen if Italy were able to wave a magic wand and leave the euro overnight? We’ll set aside the practical complications of achieving this – though they would make Brexit look like a walk in the park.</p>
<p>A major rise in bond yields to pre-euro levels would be almost inevitable, thus sharply increasing the government’s interest repayments on its debt over time. With <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp">government debt</a> currently at 132% of GDP, this would quickly make Italy’s fiscal position unsustainable. It would lead without doubt to problems of refinancing, triggering a debt restructuring. Even a hike in yields to the level seen during the 2011 eurozone debt crisis would be catastrophic. (Interestingly, the ECB <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8a688786-67f8-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec?emailId=5b15489268bfde0004ff6985&segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb">scaled back</a> its proportion of debt-buying aimed at Italy last month, in what might be seen as a signal of its concerns.) </p>
<p>One result would be that Italy’s banks would fail: about 60% of Italy’s treasury debt is held by the country’s residents, three-quarters of which are in holdings in Italian banks. A substantial burden would fall on Italy’s poorer socioeconomic groups who don’t have the means to diversify their wealth. Plan B suddenly looks like Plan Z. </p>
<h2>Collision course</h2>
<p>Then there is the question of whether the incoming government’s spending programme is compatible with the eurozone’s fiscal rules. The programme suggests increasing annual spending by between €107 billion and €126 billion (£94 billion to £110 billion), including around €50 billion to introduce a “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-14/italy-populists-go-all-in-on-pricey-vows-preparing-to-take-power">quasi-flat tax</a>” of 15% on individuals’ income and 20% on companies; and €17 billion to introduce a “citizen’s income and pension”. On 2017 figures, this is a fiscal stimulus of around 6.3%-7.4% of GDP – well outside the parameters of the <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/mb201203_focus12.en.pdf?0ea5f8ccbeb103061ba3c778c8208513">eurozone’s fiscal rules</a>. </p>
<p>You also have to ask what this fiscal expansion is trying to solve. Italy’s main problems are slow economic growth, inequality (though that increased mainly in the 1990s) and particularly <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/">youth unemployment and underemployment</a>. </p>
<p>These difficulties are mainly attributable to <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/productivity">stagnating</a> productivity <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/what-is-productivity-and-how-do-you-measure-it/">growth</a>. Increasing annual spending by cutting taxes and increasing welfare spending would not kickstart productivity growth. Also, bear in mind that both the quasi-flat tax and the universal untargeted welfare spending are likely to be regressive, shifting more of the overall tax burden on to the poor – hardly lessening inequality. And if these tax and pension giveaways are, even in part, financed by increases in indirect taxes such as VAT, that would be <a href="http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2011/01/04/why-vat-is-regressive/">even more regressive</a>. </p>
<p>Many economists have been critical of the design of the eurozone fiscal rules. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/greece-in-crisis-even-if-grexit-is-averted-the-eurozone-needs-a-fundamental-rethink-44095">have argued</a> in favour of redesigning the system – above all that the monetary union <a href="https://theconversation.com/greece-a-bad-deal-for-everyone-44627">requires</a> political oversight and also better risk-sharing through elements of fiscal union. </p>
<p>This could be achieved through the type of reform agenda which the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/how-frances-emmanuel-macron-wants-to-reform-the-eu/a-43002078">been advocating</a>, which would include a joint eurozone budget, a post of EU finance minister and a new body to oversee EU economic policy. Or equally there could be some reform of the eurozone fiscal rules which would allow some room for manoeuvre in the short term to individual countries facing macroeconomic shocks not shared by the rest of the zone. At present this is anathema to Germany and its EU allies. </p>
<p>Is this déjà vu? Yes. It’s another version of David Cameron’s pre-Brexit <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105">negotiation</a>, which arguably set back EU reform by years. </p>
<p>The problem is that the M5S-Lega agenda, far from encouraging such much-needed reform, will trigger more resistance to change among eurozone fiscal hawks. The irony of course is that Italy could not afford this populist profligacy even if it were outside the eurozone. Yet whether the EU’s overseers can afford to reject these plans from Rome without at some point reforming the existing system is another matter entirely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anton Muscatelli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new coalition’s spending plans will ramp up Italy’s annual budget by over €100 billion a year.Anton Muscatelli, Principal and Vice Chancellor, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/943092018-04-04T19:13:28Z2018-04-04T19:13:28ZItaly’s Five Star Movement: Looking at an ‘unclassifiable’ political force from a marketing perspective<p>The March 4 Italian elections were marked by the breakthrough of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/05/five-star-leader-open-to-coalition-talks-despite-founders-warning">Five Star Movement</a>, which was the leading party with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/mar/05/italian-elections-2018-full-results-renzi-berlusconi">32% of the vote</a>. Known as “M5S”, after its name in Italian, the Movimento 5 Stelle, the
party was founded in 2009 by the comedian Beppe Grillo and his fans. For many national and international observers, it’s unclassifiable in terms of the traditional left-right conception of political parties. For this reason, it is simultaneously defined as anti-party, anti-system and populist. </p>
<p>However, the M5S is a result of a general feeling coming from Western societies, which are less centred than they were in the past on work and the culture of production, on which the traditional political consensus is based, and are more focused on the culture of consumerism – thus the now-common expression “consumer societies” used by sociologists and marketers. In this regard, the M5S stands apart from many European populist movements because it is above all a fandom, a movement of activists who are mobilised by the messages of a brand-name celebrity from the culture industry: Beppe Grillo.</p>
<h2>Origins and achievements</h2>
<p>The M5S is rooted in Grillo’s blog, <a href="http://www.beppegrillo.it/">beppegrillo.it</a>, which he launched in 2004. In the blog he discussed economic and social issues, but also denounces the failings of the Italian political class. By 2008 the blog had become, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/mar/09/blogs">according to <em>The Guardian</em></a>, one of the most influential in the world. </p>
<p>From a marketing point of view, Grillo is a celebrity operating as a commercial brand, with his texts and public following. Since 2004, the comedian’s fans have organised themselves into groups of local activists, “Friends of Beppe Grillo”, who participate in local debates. In 2007 Grillo used the blog to launch a political program. The discussions concerned issues of public interest intended for presentation to the then prime minister, Romano Prodi, so that he would integrate them into the governmental agenda. This did not happen. </p>
<p>During the period 2007–2008, Grillo organized in Bologna and Turin, and streamed live for other Italian cities, two “V-Day” protest rallies. Signatures were collected for peoples’ bills to reform the political class, intended to be presented to public institutions, but once again this was not followed up. The year 2008 saw for the first time the inclusion of civic lists in local elections for Beppe Grillo. On October 4, 2009, M5S was officially established. In 2010, the parties’ activists participated in regional elections – Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto – with promising results.</p>
<p>In the 2013 national elections, and against all the odds, the M5S achieved the same scores as the traditional left-wing and right-wing parties, gaining about 25% of the vote. From 2013 to 2018, the M5S took a position within the opposition in the Italian Parliament, where it denounced acts it claimed were carried out against the interests of the Italian people and in favour of the groups holding power. In 2016, the party won local elections in major cities such as Rome and Turin. In 2018, in the March 4 elections, the M5S became the leading party <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/05/five-star-leader-open-to-coalition-talks-despite-founders-warning">with 32% of the vote</a>, followed by the Partito Democratico, with just 18%.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Helena Norberg-Hodge of Local Futures speaks with Beppe Grillo, founder Five-Star Movement (subtitled).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A populist movement… in a consumer society</h2>
<p>M5S is part of the wave of “populist” parties that have emerged in Europe recently. They range widely across the political spectrum, including the left-wing, anti-austerity <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/12/podemos-pablo-iglesias-spain-re-election-inigo-errejon">Podemos</a> in Spain, the Europhobe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/09/ukip-group-fails-bid-restore-eu-funding-amid-inquiry">UK Independence Party</a> (UKIP), the extreme-right <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/germanys-far-right-afd-leader-margaret-thatcher-is-my-role-model">Alternative for Germany</a> (AfD) and the overtly neo-fascist <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-muslim-ban-greece-neo-nazi-golden-dawn-athens-march-protest-a7555706.html">Golden Dawn</a> in Greece. All these movements appeared in response to crises within the traditional parties.</p>
<p>Yet M5S also has characteristics in common with the party of current French president Emmanuel Macron, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/emmanuel-macron-marches-on-majority-french-parliament">La République en Marche</a>, in particular its transversality between left and right. M5S also distinguishes itself through its origins: it was created by the comedian Beppe Grillo, with the support of a digital entrepreneur, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/03/italy-five-star-movement-internet">Gianroberto Casaleggio</a>, and the movement’s fans. </p>
<p>What seems unclassifiable in terms of traditional political alignments has proved to be reasonably consistent with current general feeling within Western society, which is, above all, a consumer society. Moreover, it is not simply by chance while the M5S found it difficult to gain ground among those over 50, it found its support among the young.</p>
<h2>Fandom’s power</h2>
<p>The relationship of Beppe Grillo to his fansin this case – known as “grillini” – and they to each other often plays out through the Internet. Fandoms are the result of mass or popular consumer culture, where media texts, and celebrities in particular play a central role. The fans claim ownership of media content, used in turn for the creation of new content, with the aim of challenging the establishment’s political, economic and financial powers. In this scenario, a large part of the media and news programming acts as a defending wall for the dominant elites, while the Internet is the weapon with which supporters wage their guerrilla war against the system, as they spread counter-information and an alternative vision of life within society. </p>
<p>As a fandom, the M5S has come up against the status quo and the mechanisms that govern it. The M5S subverts the traditional classifications of left and right, while at the same time proposes a universal income for all citizens living below the poverty line and support for small and medium-sized businesses. The Internet – including Grillo’s blog as well as its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/world/europe/italy-election-davide-casaleggio-five-star.html">Rousseau platform</a> – is not only a means of communication, but is also an infrastructure for the movement’s operations, the selection of its candidates, the proposal and discussion of its ideas and the development of its programs. The Internet is the means by which the M5S aims to replace one of the fundamental institutions of modern democracies, representative democracy. Instead, it will be direct democracy, enabled by the Internet.</p>
<p>Therein lies the difference between the M5S and other European “populist” movements. While they may have acquired more fluid forms adapted to contemporary society, they remain linked to political categories and/or the history of the traditional parties. The M5S is pure expression of the power that consumer culture – the brand and its fans – exerts on Western societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregorio Fuschillo is a member of the Five Star Movement.</span></em></p>While often lumped with other European populist parties, Beppe Grillo’s M5S is a movement of activist fans mobilized by the messages of his “celebrity brand”.Gregorio Fuschillo, Professeur assistant de marketing et de consumer culture « theory », Kedge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921412018-02-23T13:28:40Z2018-02-23T13:28:40ZItaly election: how populist Five Star Movement is wrecking government hopes for the mainstream<p>Italy faces an election on March 4 – and, after a long decade of austerity and economic difficulties, a strong possibility of further political paralysis. Neither the centre-left, the centre-right, or the populists are likely to command a majority in parliament. Establishing a functioning government won’t be easy, and its make-up will depend on which parties are prepared to put aside their differences and form an alliance.</p>
<p>The populist <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-italys-five-star-movement-69596">Five Star Movement</a> (M5S) exploded onto the electoral scene in the 2013 general election, arresting the see-saw alternation between centre-left and centre-right majority governments that had been tentatively established in the 1990s. The vote produced a hung parliament, forcing the two traditional parties to work together in a centrist “grand coalition” to keep M5S out of office.</p>
<p>Now, M5S, <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-an-election-in-italy-next-year-and-m5s-has-some-familiar-problems-85492">despite recent allegations of corruption</a>, is even stronger. It’s likely to emerge from this election as the <a href="https://www.termometropolitico.it/1289058_sondaggi-elettorali-demopolis-6.html">largest party</a>. But it looks unlikely to secure enough of a majority to govern alone and it continues to refuse to form coalitions with other parties.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=134&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=134&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=134&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Statistics from the February 16 Demos opinion poll, organised by party and political spectrum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A collapse in support of the two pivotal parties of the centre-left and centre-right means that neither look likely to be able to form a government either. The Democratic Party under former prime minister Matteo Renzi has sunk from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_general_election,_2013">25% of the vote</a> in 2013 (and an astounding 40.8% of the vote in the 2014 European elections) to 21.9% in polls today. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, on the centre right, has collapsed from 21.5% in 2013 to 16.3% today. Both parties are suffering from <a href="https://theconversation.com/matteo-renzi-just-killed-off-italys-centre-left-73492">splits and fragmentation</a>, which have weakened the coalitions they lead.</p>
<h2>A new system</h2>
<p>Faced with this decline, it’s not surprising that, in 2017, Renzi and Berlusconi brought the combined parliamentary strength of their parties together to pass an electoral reform that seemed designed to offset M5S’s electoral popularity by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/20/italian-pm-renzi-electoral-reform-m5s">limiting its seat gains</a>.</p>
<p>The new electoral system (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017">the rosatellum</a> – after Ettore Rosato, the Democratic leader in the Chamber of Deputies who first proposed the new law) is a “mixed” system (part “first-past-the-post” and part proportional). It favours those parties willing to ally together behind single candidates to prevent splitting their vote. It also gives an advantage to those parties that are territorially concentrated, such as the Democratic Party (in the central regions) and the Northern League (in the north). M5S, which opposed the electoral reform, has no natural coalition allies and does not yet have a strong presence at local or regional levels.</p>
<p>This electoral engineering will nevertheless come at a cost. It increases the likelihood that none of the parties or coalitions will reach the 40% threshold of the vote that is likely to be necessary to secure a parliamentary majority. This has resulted in a feverish election campaign, dominated – not by debates about policies – but by speculation over possible post-election coalitions. Even an anti-establishment M5S-Northern League alliance is being touted as a possibility.</p>
<p>All of this matters not just to Italy but to Europe. A decade after the eurozone crisis began, the Italian economy is still in recovery. Its sheer size and significance to the eurozone remains a concern to the European Union, which has demanded greater fiscal discipline and reforms to encourage growth and improve productivity. That needs effective government – and one supportive of the EU.</p>
<p>Yet, there is a rising tide of eurosceptism in Italy, fuelled by M5S and years of perceived EU-imposed austerity. Forza Italia, the Northern League and M5S have all toyed with the idea of withdrawing Italy from the euro, meaning only the Democratic Party has unequivocal pro-euro credentials. Yet, even under prime ministers from that party (Matteo Renzi, Paolo Gentiloni), the Italy-EU relationship has become testy and fractious. Governments have become less willing to be the “good European” if it is seen to involve imposing more austerity on an unwilling population.</p>
<p>Overall, the state of play makes for a potent mix. The 2013 parliamentary and presidential elections produced a “perfect storm” and Italy ended up, for some time, without a prime minister, government or president. This time, fortunately, the president is not up for election – and it will be his responsibility to appoint a prime minister capable of governing with a parliamentary majority. The road ahead is however still fraught with uncertainty.</p>
<p>The new electoral system increases the importance of post-election manoeuvring by the parties, and will determine whether a repeat grand coalition government is needed (and possible) to keep out the extremes, or whether Italy will take a step into the unknown with some kind of anti-EU populist governing alliance. Europe will be watching closely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin J Bull does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Italy’s political future hangs in the balance – will it see another chaotic grand coalition, or take an anti-EU populist step into the unknown?Martin J Bull, Professor of Politics, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.