tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/mario-monti-1917/articlesMario Monti – The Conversation2013-02-27T23:46:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/124642013-02-27T23:46:22Z2013-02-27T23:46:22ZItaly’s post-election nightmare: stalemate sinks growth hopes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20730/original/t7t6mrvr-1362006834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Leader of the Five Star movement, Beppe Grillo, rode a wave of unexpected popularity to obtain one quarter of the votes in Italy's House of Representatives.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The economic troubles of Italy are largely homegrown. Some might argue that they have been made worse by the fiscal austerity measures adopted under pressure from the European Union. But the truth is that, Europe or not, three decades of fiscal profligacy eventually had to come to an end. The landing could not possibly be soft.</p>
<p>If problems are homegrown, then their solution should also be homegrown. In this regard, the elections held last week-end could have been a good starting point: new parliament, new government, and a new push towards long-term, pro-growth reforms.</p>
<p>But this does not seem to have been the case. First of all, throughout the campaign, the issue of long-term growth has been overshadowed by the debate on fiscal austerity. Parties have talked a lot about cutting taxes and balancing the budget, but they have not said much about what should be done to re-launch growth after twenty years of stagnation.</p>
<p>Second, the polls yielded a highly fragmented parliament which is unlikely to generate the type of solid and cohesive government required to undertake long-term economic reforms.</p>
<p>No party or coalition has a majority in both Houses (House of Representatives and Senate). In the House of Representatives, the centre-left coalition led by the Democratic Party (PD) won by a very small margin over the centre-right coalition led by the People of Freedom Party (PDL). Because of the Italian electoral system, even such a small margin translates into a significant majority in the number of elected representatives.</p>
<p>In the Senate, the situation is much more complicated. The total number of senators is 315: the PD and its allied gained 119 seats, the PDL and its allied 117 seats, the Five Star movement 54 seats, and Civic Choice 18 seats. Even if seven seats still remain to be assigned, it is already clear that none of the parties/coalitions can reach the majority quorum of 158.</p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>There are two main winners in this election. One is certainly the new <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/25/beppe-grillo-italy-election-success">Five Star movement</a>, led by former comedian Beppe Grillo. Five Star is an anti-politics movement whose campaign was based on a rather populist platform.</p>
<p>Five Star gathered the “vote of protest” of most Italian citizens dissatisfied with the political class. It achieved a remarkable 25% of votes in the House of Representatives (a bit less in the Senate), which makes it the largest single party in the legislature.</p>
<p>The second winner is Silvio Berlusconi, the leader of PDL. Thrown out of office 15 months ago and currently on trial for various charges, including a sex scandal, Berlusconi led his centre-right coalition to an amazing climb back.</p>
<p>No more than two months ago, PDL lagged 20 percentage points behind the PD in the opinion polls. The electoral results today say that the PD-led coalition and the PDL-led coalition are both around 30%, separated by a mere 0.5% in the House of Representatives (1% in the Senate).</p>
<p>The main loser is instead PD, which lost the large advantage it had over both PDL and Five Stars in just a couple of months. For one thing, the leadership of PD was unable to communicate effectively with a large segment of moderate electorate. For another, PD remained trapped between the strong anti-taxation stance taken by Berlusconi and the general sentiment of distrust towards politics, which drove the success of Five Star.</p>
<p>The second loser is outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti. His <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/tag/mario-monti/">Civic Choice</a> movement, allied with a couple of small centrist parties, did not go beyond 10% of votes in both Houses, which makes it almost irrelevant in the coalition game that will be played by PD, PDL, and Five Stars.</p>
<p>Monti was appointed Prime Minister in November 2011, when it became evident that Berlusconi’s government was unable to respond to the debt crisis. He headed a technical government that undertook tough measures of fiscal austerity.</p>
<p>While at that time there was no alternative to fiscal austerity, Monti should have also started an ambitious plan of reforms. Unfortunately, this did not happen and the austerity measures significantly worsened the recession.</p>
<p>During the electoral campaign, Monti somewhat loosened his fiscal stance, promising to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/monti-pledges-raft-of-tax-cuts-after-a-year-of-increasing-levies.html">lower certain taxes</a> and to start reforms, but evidently Italian voters were not inclined to give him a second chance.</p>
<p>Someone might read Monti’s poor showing as a vote against the European Union. The Five Star movement, which loudly demands a renegotiation of Italy’s agreements with Europe, might have also benefited from a growing anti-European sentiment within the electorate.</p>
<p>However, more than a rejection of the European Union, the vote might signal that citizens have understood what parties still fail to grasp: it is the lack of economic growth that makes fiscal austerity necessary. Re-start growth, and draconian fiscal measures will no longer be needed.</p>
<h2>Playing the coalition game</h2>
<p>Because of its majority in the House of Representatives, the PD is still the obvious candidate to form a government. Numbers are such that some sort of agreement with either PDL or Five Stars will be needed in the Senate.</p>
<p>The leader of PD, Pier Luigi Bersani, is probably orientated towards striking a deal with Five Star. The most likely scenario is one where PD forms a minority government (together with the other small parties in the centre-left coalition) and Five Star provides some conditional external support.</p>
<p>It is hard to say what kind of economic policy a government like this would be able to implement.</p>
<p>PD’s policy platform includes a set of tax cuts for lower-income households and an increase of deductions on taxes on reinvested earnings. To offset the decrease in tax revenues, PD proposes to cut transfers and government consumption and to raise extra-revenues from the sale of public assets and the fight against tax evasion.</p>
<p>In principle, these are all measures that Five Star might be willing to support. The central question is what Five Star will ask in return. The answer here is particularly difficult because the movement avoided any debate with other parties/coalitions during this campaign, and its published policy document does not provide much detail on economic policy.</p>
<p>Making the public administration more transparent and less expensive is a recurrent theme in the rhetoric of Five Star, and it is something the PD should be prepared to do. But some of the other ideas of Five Star in the area of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/italy-votes-on-its-future.html?_r=0">labour market reforms</a> or <a href="http://www.beppegrillo.it/en/2012/07/pygmies_of_europe.html">European integration</a> might be difficult for the PD to digest.</p>
<p>Moreover, it is unclear to what extent a protest and anti-politics movement like Five Star is willing to support a PD-led government. In fact, Five Star has probably more to gain by staying in opposition, at least for now.</p>
<p>The alternative for PD is an alliance with the centre-right. Paradoxically, some common ground for this coalition could be found in the policy programme of PDL, which includes a large fiscal stimulus package with comprehensive tax cuts, an increase in public investment, a reorganisation of tax expenditures, stronger action against tax evasion and capital flights, and an aggressive public assets sale plan.</p>
<p>In a post-election interview, Berlusconi indeed suggested that PDL might be willing to cooperate with PD to form a large coalition government. But the two parties have been engaged in fierce competition for 20 years, their leaders have attacked each other violently, often on personal grounds. The wounds caused by this conflict are too fresh and too large to be quickly healed. Hence, not surprisingly, Bersani promptly rejected Berlusconi’s offer.</p>
<p>If the attempt of the PD to form a government were to fail, then there would be only one possible way forward: new elections. In itself, the risk of having to put the country through another long campaign, in these economic conditions, should be a strong-enough incentive for parties to find an agreement.</p>
<p>But alas, the present economic and political situation of Italy suggests that, in the past, the good of the country got often lost in the subtleties of the political game. Can we expect anything different this time?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise continuous linear model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>The economic troubles of Italy are largely homegrown. Some might argue that they have been made worse by the fiscal austerity measures adopted under pressure from the European Union. But the truth is that…Fabrizio Carmignani, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/122832013-02-21T19:33:20Z2013-02-21T19:33:20ZItaly at the crossroads: desperately seeking government in a time of crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20484/original/x66mqwbm-1361417715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Regardless of who wins the 2013 election, citizens and commentators alike are pessimistic about Italy's economic outlook.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Italy has had several crucial elections in the past. In 1946, right after the end of World War II, citizens were called to decide between Republic and Monarchy. Two years later, the 1948 general election was a choice between the two blocs of the Cold War. In 1994, the so-called first Republic came to an end, swept away by corruption scandals, and voters had to give the Parliament new life. </p>
<p>But this 2013 election (24-25 February) is likely to stand out because there is something very gloomy about it. Italy is in a crisis, and not a “simple” debt crisis, as one might be tempted to believe. Most Italians today feel economically and financially insecure, their jobs are at risk, the prospects for their children are dim, and the widespread opinion is that no matter who wins the elections, things are not going to improve.</p>
<h2>Realistic pessimism</h2>
<p>This gloomy feeling has some justification in the data. Unemployment is now <a href="https://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=z8o7pt6rd5uqa6_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:it&fdim_y=seasonality:sa&dl=en&hl=en&q=italian%20unemployment">above 11%</a>, two percentage points higher than a year ago. Youth unemployment is <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/11/07/young-italians-wrestle-a-job-market-that-favours-old-unfireable/">about 35%</a>, with peaks of more than 50% in certain areas of the South. About ¼ of the population is estimated to be at risk of poverty or social exclusion.</p>
<p>But perhaps more than these numbers, what really worries Italians is that the country appears to be trapped in a vicious circle of fiscal austerity — which many perceive as the consequence of undue European interferences — and worsening recession. </p>
<p>The last 12 months of Mario Monti’s government might have reinforced this impression. Acclaimed as a saviour by most media and European partners in November 2011, when the interest rate spread hit its maximum and the incumbent Berlusconi’s government seemed paralysed an incapable of action, Monti implemented a tough fiscal austerity plan mainly based on tax hikes.</p>
<p>The plan was successful in reassuring international markets and reducing the spread. But in the absence of significant expenditure cuts and ambitious reforms to re-start growth, it deepened the recession. As a result, household welfare is today lower than a year ago.</p>
<h2>Campaigning on economic issues</h2>
<p>The problem is that the debate on fiscal austerity in Italy has overshadowed the debate on economic growth. If a country achieves a steady rate of economic growth, then no draconian tax hikes and expenditure cuts are required to ensure the long-run sustainability of debt. In Italy, this simple lesson seems to have been forgotten. </p>
<p>Of course, the Italian situation 15 months ago was one of acute emergency. Without much time to boost growth, Monti’s only initial option was to adopt severe measures of fiscal austerity. Now the time has come to move away from this obsessive focus on austerity, but this is not what the main political parties seem to be doing.</p>
<p>Certainly, the policy platforms of all parties include some significant tax cuts. But the discussion on measures to relaunch growth has been marginalised. The problem of how to finance the tax cuts has attracted much more attention than the question of how to design new pro-growth reforms.</p>
<p>Berlusconi’s centre-right <a href="http://www.epp.eu/countryPg.asp?cid=14">People of Freedom Party</a> (PDL) proposes a large fiscal stimulus package consisting of tax cuts across the board and an increase in public investment. Extra revenues would be generated through an aggressive public assets sales plan, fiscal agreements with Switzerland for the taxation of Italians financial capitals abroad, and a reorganisation of tax expenditures. </p>
<p>Monti’s centrist movement <a href="http://www.sceltacivica.it/con-Monti-per-cambiare-Italia">Civic Choice</a> (SC) offers a significantly more conservative platform than the PDL: smaller-scale tax cuts, a larger reduction in the consumption component of government expenditure, and a more moderate increase in public investment. Similarly to the PDL, SC also proposes to generate extra-revenues via public assets sales, but again this plan is less ambitious (and probably more realistic) than that proposed by the PDL.</p>
<p>The policy platform of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20579689">Pier Luigi Bersani</a> seems to be more orientated towards redistribution. PD proposes a reduction in the lowest income tax rate and a reformulation of the property tax to reduce cost on poorer households and increase the burden on richer households. The main action in support of growth would probably be an increase in deductions on taxes on reinvested earnings.</p>
<p>None of the parties are proposing measures that are capable of sustaining high growth in the long term. A study recently <a href="http://www.corriere.it/Primo_Piano/Politica/Speciali/2013/elezioni-la-prova-dei-fatti/notizie/pop_Oxford-Economics.shtml">released by Oxford Economics</a> confirms that whichever of these three platforms were to be implemented, the annual average growth rate of Italy over the period 2013-2018 would be less than 1%.</p>
<p>Considering that the fourth major contestant is the anti-politics <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21571886-comedian-and-populist-whose-result-may-be-underestimated-five-star-menu">Five Star movement of Beppe Grillo</a>, whose economic platform is limited to generic statements on the need to curb public administration costs, the chances that this election can mark the beginning of new growth era for Italy are feeble.</p>
<p>And exit polls contribute to the darkening outlook: no party is likely to have a solid majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Hence, the need to form a coalition (most likely between PD and SC, with PDL and the Five Stars movement at the opposition) will further complicate economic policy-making and reduce the space for long-term reforms.</p>
<p>Is then Italy doomed? Maybe not. Its problems are home-grown, which means that solutions are also to be found at home. As a political and economic system, Italy has the potential to find a way out of the crisis. However, to do so, the country (its political class, its private sector, its citizens) will have to recover the entrepreneurial spirit, the vision, and the courage that made the “economic miracle” of the ‘50s and ‘60s possible. The question is: is Italy prepared to “go back to the future”?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise continuous linear model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>Italy has had several crucial elections in the past. In 1946, right after the end of World War II, citizens were called to decide between Republic and Monarchy. Two years later, the 1948 general election…Fabrizio Carmignani, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/112672012-12-12T19:37:49Z2012-12-12T19:37:49ZExit the technocrat, enter the populist? Europe braces for next act in Italian drama<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/18591/original/96hbczqt-1355283250.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Italy is in an economic and political mess, with or without the leadership of Mario Monti (pictured), who announced his resignation this week.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For a little longer than a year, the “technical” government of Mario Monti was supported by a vast and heterogeneous coalition: the centre-right People of Freedom Party of Silvio Berlusconi (PDL), the centre-left Democratic Party headed by Pier Luigi Bersani (PD), and the centrist Christian Democratic party of Pierferdinando Casini (UDC). </p>
<p>Then, last week, Silvio Berlusconi told the press he would run for office again in 2013. This <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20668165">announcement</a> spurred a plethora of adverse reactions from various political leaders, as well as senior members of Monti’s cabinet. As a result, the PDL declared it would stop supporting the technical government.</p>
<p>Even if not formally voted out of office, last Friday Monti met with the President of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano – a key sponsor of the technical government – and announced his intention to resign after the approval of the 2013 budget and stability law currently under discussion in the Parliament. General elections would thus be held some time in February 2013. Incidentally, this is just a month or two earlier than the natural conclusion of the legislature. </p>
<p>When the markets opened on Monday 10 December, their response to the collapse of Monti’s government was <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/italy-monti-markets-idUSHOLLANDE120121210">unequivocally negative</a>. The stock exchange initially dropped by 4%, eventually rebounding and closing the day at – 2.2%, while the spread between the Italian and the German 10-year bonds increased from 3.2% to 3.5%. </p>
<p>This chain of events seems to suggest that Berlusconi is willing to bring Italy to bankruptcy in order to carry out short-term political revenge. As the downfall of Italy would probably trigger the breakdown of the monetary union, Berlusconi’s comeback could really be the beginning of the end. </p>
<p>A quick look at the front page of most newspapers confirms that this is indeed the prevailing opinion in Europe: political leaders and commentators <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da11e5d4-43a0-11e2-a68c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2EnkdMyOx">invariably sing Monti’s praises</a> while warning voters and readers against the risk of a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2012/s3651909.htm">return of Berlusconi</a>.</p>
<p>However, Berlusconi should not be the only reason of concern.</p>
<h2>Monti: is the international praise deserved?</h2>
<p>Monti became Prime Minister amid the financial turmoil of November 2011, when Berlusconi no longer had the numbers in the parliament nor the international credibility to face the crisis. </p>
<p>With his strong international reputation and non-political background, Monti seemed to be the ideal candidate to head a government whose task was to take Italy out of the tunnel. But, if this was the mission, then we cannot say it was accomplished.</p>
<p>In 2012, Italy has plummeted into a recession, with a record negative GDP growth rate of -2.3%. Unemployment has increased to 10.5% from 8.4% in 2011. The net loss of jobs in the past twelve months amounts to more than 300,000 units. In spite of the increase in government revenue, the debt to GDP ratio in the course of 2012 has further increased by six percentage points to 126%. </p>
<p>Certainly, it is not Monti’s government that caused the recession and, by 2014, Italy might even return to feeble positive growth. But it is still hard to think of Monti as a saviour whose departure will precipitate Italy into ruins. In a sense, Italy is already in ruins. </p>
<p>Or, to be less dramatic, what Monti has done in the last year has been to increase taxes, which perhaps helped reduce the spread, but which did not stop the real economy from plunging. Maybe without Monti, things would have been even worse. But this is meagre consolation when average per-capita income has declined by 700 euros in a year, youth unemployment has reached a 24-year-high in October 2012 (35%), and over a quarter of Italians are estimated to be at risk of poverty or social exclusion.</p>
<h2>Blame Berlusconi — and all the others</h2>
<p>The return of Berlusconi is feared because many see him as the origin of the Italian crisis. In fact, this is a misleading simplification. Certainly, having governed for almost nine years since 2001, Berlusconi must bear some of the blame for the current state of the Italian economy. But he is not the only one to be blamed.</p>
<p>The crisis of Italy stems from fiscal profligacy and lack of economic growth. Both phenomena pre-date Berlusconi. Large fiscal deficits and debt accumulation go back to the early ‘80s, when the coalition governments built around the Christian Democratic Party started using fiscal expenditure as a tool of political patronage. </p>
<p>Growth has been stagnant for at least two decades, and for 10 years in the last 20, Berlusconi was at the opposition (or he had not even entered the political arena yet), with the centre-left being at the helm. </p>
<p>The fact is that none of the Italian governments that have been in office since the early 1990s have done much to redress the structural weaknesses and overcome the bottlenecks that constrain productivity growth and hinder Italian competitiveness in international markets.</p>
<p>Italy’s economic problems are not linked to just one particular party or government. They are systemic and will persist, no matter whether Berlusconi comes back or not.</p>
<h2>Plenty of other reasons to be worried</h2>
<p>The chances that Berlusconi will actually gain office at the next elections are very slim. Before the announcement that he would run again, opinion polls placed Berlusconi’s party well below the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>Certainly, with Berlusconi as its leader, the PDL might hope to gather a few more votes. But Berlusconi is no longer the charismatic figure who entered politics in 1994 or the leader who won the elections in 2001 and 2008. His appeal to the moderate electorate has been considerably reduced by the sex scandals in which he was involved. Overall, several political commentators believe that the best he can do at the next elections is to limit the magnitude of the defeat.</p>
<p>It is not Berlusconi who should be feared at this stage. Beyond Berlusconi, there is no shortage of leaders in Italy whose populist recipes are far more worrying than Berlusconi’s unlikely comeback. </p>
<p>The emerging <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/30/beppe-grillo-comedian-italy-five-star">Five Star</a> movement of the former comedian Beppe Grillo, for instance, is attracting support with its anti-politics stance, internet-based primaries, and fierce exposure of the many mistakes made by the political class. Still, more than that is needed to make it fit to rule the country.</p>
<p>The desirable scenario for Italy now is a general election that will lead to the formation of a credible political government, capable of undertaking the reforms and expenditure cuts that Monti did not achieve, and willing to work with European partners towards a solution of the crisis in the region. </p>
<p>There is a strong likelihood that this scenario will not occur, and it is not the fault of a potential Berlusconi comeback. European partners are right to be concerned about the political destiny of Italy, but perhaps this time they have directed their concern towards the wrong target.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise continuous linear model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>For a little longer than a year, the “technical” government of Mario Monti was supported by a vast and heterogeneous coalition: the centre-right People of Freedom Party of Silvio Berlusconi (PDL), the…Fabrizio Carmignani, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/43632011-11-22T19:17:37Z2011-11-22T19:17:37ZForget politicians - be a dictator for a day and get the job done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5721/original/Hitler_Mussolini_Flickr_Galaxy_FM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mussolini made the trains run on time. But having a strong leader is risky.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Galaxy FM</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGgGOPI-IEY">“If I Ruled The World”</a> was a tune made famous decades ago by English comedian and singer Harry Secombe who sang of making every day the first day of spring as well as other miraculous improvements. It was a romantic fantasy and many of us have similarly extemporised on what we would do if given half the chance to right the world. </p>
<p>Some have taken such make-believe more seriously and put their ideas into print, such as Thomas Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum. In <a href="http://www.thomaslfriedman.com/bookshelf/that-used-to-be-us">That Used To Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back</a>, they lay out a book’s worth of problems and remedies that they would match if dictators for a day but which are caught in the web of institutional paralysis called American politics. </p>
<p>In his more bleak moments contemplating global warming, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/rn/latenightlive/features/china/default.htm">Phillip Adams</a> on Radio National has looked enviously at the capacity of the authoritarian Chinese state to deal with environmental problems. </p>
<p>Behind such arguments lay one or both of two old assumptions: (a) democracy falters when faced by a terrible crisis or (b) that squabbling self-interested politicians are not facing up to said crisis. Either way, the solution is seen to rest in a strong hand which will slap a few faces into realisation of the good of the nation. </p>
<h2>Forget checks and balances</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5723/original/Monti_Berlusconi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5723/original/Monti_Berlusconi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5723/original/Monti_Berlusconi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5723/original/Monti_Berlusconi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5723/original/Monti_Berlusconi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5723/original/Monti_Berlusconi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5723/original/Monti_Berlusconi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Super Mario’ has the weight of huge expectations on his shoulders after Silvio Berlusconi’s performance as PM.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Maurizio Brambatti</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Party politics and the checks and balances of power in a democracy can be seen as just so many petty encumbrances to decisive action to deal with the nation’s problems. </p>
<p>Many office discussions have been punctuated with the clarion call “What this country needs is a benign dictator!” and years ago one had to endure the denouement of “At least <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/mussolini_benito.shtml">Mussolini</a> made the trains run on time!” If that were the case I’d put him in charge of trains in Sydney, even if he has been dead for 66 years. He couldn’t do any worse.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the case of Italy is particularly pertinent now that Silvio (“Where’s my Viagra? It’s bunga bunga night”) Berlusconi will no longer be rendering his <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15642201">services to comedy</a>. Instead Mario Monti was appointed senator for life and then <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15785651">prime minster</a>. He brings to the job his expertise as an economist and academic, European Commissioner and adviser to Goldman Sachs and Coca-Cola.</p>
<p>So he is the latest of a long line of technocrats or more authoritarian types who are often seen as the only ones who can divine and enact the public interest over the heads of those creating the turmoil. His media nickname of “Super Mario” gives some idea of the expectations heaped on his shoulders.</p>
<p>Behind such arguments lay an old tradition of suspicion of democracy that originated with the ancient Greek philosopher <a href="http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/plato/">Plato</a> who despised democracy for putting in charge the ignorant common mobs which pushed his mate <a href="http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/socrates/">Socrates</a> into downing a schooner of hemlock. </p>
<p>As one who believed in excellence and expertise, he thought justice would only reign over a political society when philosophers were made kings, when those elite men and women trained in philosophy ruled. They were motivated only by love of wisdom and disdained the baser human desires such as ambition and material greed, hence they had no desire to rule, which was the very attitude that best qualified them for political office, and only took it for the sake of the public good. </p>
<p>Monti is conceived in this mould of an expert who is motivated solely by the public good rather than selfish motives and who will bring their specialised training to bear, in this case of economics rather than philosophy. </p>
<p>Plato’s arguments were reprised as representative democracy advanced in the nineteenth century and did not die, revealing widespread ambivalences amongst populations about such a highly prized idea. </p>
<h2>Merits of a strong leader</h2>
<p>The growth of democracy was accelerated across the world by wars and revolutions but not at a uniform speed. Sometimes societies careered into economic and political swamps such as the <a href="http://australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/great-depression">Great Depression</a>. Such tremulous times caused many to seek the false refuge of a “strong leader” to see them through, although it must be admitted such responses spanned a wide arc between the slightly authoritarian to the outright Nazi, that is from the more straightened democrat to the vicious anti-democrat. Nevertheless, the history books are splattered with the grotesqueries of the Hitlers and Mussolinis. </p>
<p>On a less hyperventilating level, most Australians have always firmly believed that their current lot of politicians is worse than all previous generations of politicians and should be tied in a bag and tossed off the heads. Anti-politician politics has always had appeal.</p>
<p>It is with such ideas in the back of their minds that some voters have sometimes turned to the anti-politician expert to run the country or state, such as <a href="http://www.australianhistory.org/stanley-bruce">Stanley Bruce</a> in 1923, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/john-hewson-29768.html">John Hewson</a> in 1993, <a href="http://www.nickgreiner.com.au/">Nick Greiner</a> in 1988 and <a href="http://www.icmi.com.au/Speaker/Leadership/John_Elliott/Biography">John Elliott</a> in the 1980s when he was chairman of Fosters and president of the Liberal Party toying with a political career. </p>
<p>The idea was that somebody who made themselves wealthy would know how to run the economy or in Greiner’s case would run the state like a business, NSW Inc <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/03/14/greiner-20th-anniversary-shows-how-far-nsw-libs-have-fallen/">as he called it</a>, and dispense with all the pettiness of politics. </p>
<h2>Fantasy federal politics</h2>
<p>Let that idea take wing for a moment in federal politics with the appointment of business people and other technocrats to government. Certainly, that might be possible with a <a href="http://www.gg.gov.au/">governor-general</a> who was inclined to ignore conventions and take only what is written in the constitution. </p>
<p>After all, on paper, she is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and there is no mention of prime minister and cabinet in our constitution. So she could appoint without their election a council of ministers every three months and in that fashion draw in experts, as American presidents do to the admiration of some observers. </p>
<p>We could even draw up a fantasy list much like fantasy lists of world’s greatest football or cricket teams. There could be ex-head of the Treasury <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/12/21/henry-an-outstanding-public-servant-ill-used-by-both-sides/">Ken Henry</a> and his successor <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/content/secretary.asp?ContentID=346&titl=Secretary%20to%20the%20Treasury">Martin Parkinson</a> and Governor of the Reserve Bank <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/about-rba/people/gov.html">Glenn Stevens</a>. <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-shergold-279">Peter Shergold</a> started in academia, joined the public service, became Cabinet Secretary and Chief of Staff under <a href="http://primeministers.naa.gov.au/primeministers/howard/">John Howard</a>, and then returned to academia. <a href="https://australianbritishchamber.worldsecuresystems.com/BookingRetrieve.aspx?ID=115783">Sir Rod Eddington</a> is a respected businessman and head of <a href="http://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/about/">Infrastructure Australia</a>. </p>
<h2>Public service</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5722/original/Eddington_Rudd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5722/original/Eddington_Rudd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5722/original/Eddington_Rudd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5722/original/Eddington_Rudd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5722/original/Eddington_Rudd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5722/original/Eddington_Rudd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5722/original/Eddington_Rudd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Could Rod Eddington be a better policy maker than Kevin Rudd?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tim Dornim</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We could name some others but it would be impossible to match the scale of appointments made by American presidents who <a href="http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepresidentandcabinet/a/prestrans.htm">fill 6,000 positions</a> when they come into office. We don’t have that same tradition of easy transfer of openly partisan people between the public and privates spheres. Instead, we have a Westminster tradition of a wholly professional non-partisan public service working for the public good.</p>
<p>That is where Henry, Parkinson and Stevens made their reputations, dealing with the politics of bureaucracy but not with the appeals to and persuasions of the public and with judgements that must be explained. </p>
<p>Business people don’t have to worry about persuading public blocks of constituents, especially since boards are tied up by institutional investors and they have a coterie of advisers.</p>
<p>That talent is what politics is about and that is the expertise of politicians. Of course that talent varies and it can only be gained with experience, the more the better. <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/prime-minister/keating">Keating</a>, Howard and <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/">Abbott</a> have been able to run rings around opponents who are less experienced in politics and less practiced in the art of persuasion. </p>
<h2>Powers of persuasion</h2>
<p>A lack of such talents is the reason for the failure of Hewson, Bruce and Greiner and for the faltering of <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?id=83T">Rudd</a> and <a href="http://www.pm.gov.au/your-pm">Gillard</a> who have only been in parliament since 1998. Such a lack of public experience is where Monti will fail. Moreover, do we really think corporate leaders, such as Monti, always get things right? Should we really trust a person from Goldman Sachs, a global investment bank that helped get us where we are today? There is a roll-call of businessmen who were slapped on the back by one and all only to be found out later to be not as good as everyone thought. </p>
<p>On that note of not giving into the moment, Anglo-Saxon countries have disdained politicians since the nineteenth century so they shouldn’t rush into dangerous solutions just because of a current sense of despair. </p>
<p>There is also nothing new in current arguments that are envious of the centralised Chinese state. Similar discussions were rampant in the 1950s when many Australian and American elites worried about the tremendous growth achieved by the authoritarian Russian state and feared the weakness of democracy. It took years for many to realise the tremendous failures of that communist system which led to its final collapse. </p>
<p>Let some time pass before judging the strength and efficacy of the Chinese state. It may well turn out to be a myth just like the one that Mussolini made the trains run on time. Until then we should let politicians get on with the job and keep our beady eyes on them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Rolfe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“If I Ruled The World” was a tune made famous decades ago by English comedian and singer Harry Secombe who sang of making every day the first day of spring as well as other miraculous improvements. It…Mark Rolfe, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.