tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/medal-count-11331/articlesMedal count – The Conversation2016-08-22T20:15:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/640512016-08-22T20:15:16Z2016-08-22T20:15:16ZWinning Edge fails to deliver, so what now for Australia’s Olympic hopes?<p>Rio 2016 is over and questions are being asked about why the Australian team didn’t perform any better. Making things worse is the fact that this worsening performance comes despite a new sports funding strategy that was supposed to boost the national medal tally. </p>
<p>Following a disappointing performance by the national team at the London 2012 Olympic Games, the Australian Sport Commission implemented a new funding strategy called <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/ais/australias_winning_edge">Australia’s Winning Edge</a>. This approach projected a top-five finish on the medal table in the 2016 and 2020 Olympic Games. </p>
<p>Winning Edge prioritises funding toward sports that have the greatest chance of success or those that can demonstrate a capability to deliver results. These <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/508465/High_performance_investment_principles.pdf">high-performance investment principles</a> outline how the Australian Sports Commission makes funding decisions. The bottom line is that sports must contribute to Winning Edge targets in order to receive long-term investment. </p>
<p>Prior to Winning Edge, the national sport strategy took a “whole of sport” approach. Funding was allocated to sports with large participation numbers and clear athlete pathways into elite programs. Unlike Winning Edge, it wasn’t primarily based on international performance results. </p>
<h2>2016 Olympic postmortem</h2>
<p>Popular and successful sports such as swimming, cycling and rowing received significant funding in the lead-up to the Rio Games. In turn, they were expected to produce Olympic medals. But it didn’t work that way. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/olympics-2016/swimming-australias-hierarchy-must-step-down-says-former-australian-head-coach-bill-sweetenham/news-story/583ea8488610617cacf7cb60c83614f6">Swimming</a>, for instance, received A$38 million in taxpayer funding. But performances in the pool were well below expectations. Australia’s swimming team was expected to win as many as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-15/rio-2016-rowland-swimmers-performed-under-great-pressure/7733920">eight gold medals</a> at Rio; it won three. </p>
<p>Winning Edge seems to have added to the already high levels of boosterism already prevalent in Australian sport. Before the Games, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-07/asc-chairman-admits-winning-edge-rollout-not-handled-perfectly/7483412">the country was projected to win</a> 14 or 16 gold medals.</p>
<p>These projections were based on athlete performances and world rankings in 2015; in <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/olympics-2016/australias-34member-team-for-rio-olympic-games-announced/news-story/5063072960df04b541df8d17c69fc991">swimming alone</a>, Australia had 25 top-three world rankings in the lead-up events to the Rio Games. </p>
<p>Yet Australia finished tenth on the medal table at Rio, with eight gold medals and a <a href="http://rio2016.olympics.com.au/">total medal haul of 29</a>. The national medal tally at the London 2012 Games was 35 (including eight gold) but that was so disappointing it became the catalyst for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-31/ais-director-matt-favier-hits-back-at-winning-edge-criticism-rio/7464628">implementing Winning Edge</a>. </p>
<p>The Australian Sports Commission plans to review funding based on performances in Rio later this year. While most will retain a <a href="http://ausport.gov.au/ais/australias_winning_edge/investment_announcement/2014-15">baseline funding amount</a>, it’ll be interesting to see what cuts are made to sports that “underperformed”. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-216" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/216/88135eba23794be9e8691e55e88af0f96335e050/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><em>Note: The weighted medal cost is determined by weighting the medals won (where a bronze medal has a value of one, silver a value of two and gold a value of three), then dividing the total amount spent by the total weighted value of the medals.</em></p>
<h2>Works for others</h2>
<p>Australia’s Winning Edge strategy was <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/sport/federal-government-to-review-australian-institute-of-sport-operations-five-months-out-from-rio-olympics-20160221-gmzn37.html">modelled</a> on UK Sport’s “<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/10206810/UK-Sport-remains-defiant-over-No-Compromise-position-as-funding-row-rumbles-on-with-threat-of-formal-challenge.html">no compromise</a>” funding approach, which was implemented to drive success at the London 2012 Olympic Games. </p>
<p>But the UK Sport model – described as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/aug/15/brutal-but-effective-why-team-gb-is-winning-so-many-olympic-medals">brutal but effective</a>” – has been a success; Great Britain had its best-ever result at Rio 2016, coming second after the United States. </p>
<p>Like Winning Edge, UK Sport’s funding investment model targeted successful sports and reduced funding or even axed unsuccessful programs such as basketball, wrestling, table tennis and volleyball. But why hasn’t targeted funding been as successful in Australia? </p>
<p>Compared with most nations above Australia on the medal table, sports funding here is much lower. Great Britain spent up to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-19/rio-2016-australian-medal-tally-not-what-we-expected-john-coates/7766738">A$1.3 billion</a> in the four years leading up to the Rio Games; Australia invested around A$800 million in the same period. </p>
<p>Great Britain funds the majority of its high-performance sport programs through its <a href="https://www.rio2016.com/en/news/team-gb-on-brink-of-historic-record-at-rio-2016-as-lottery-funding-pays-dividends-in-olympic-models">national lottery system</a>. Not only does this give it access to greater sums of money, it removes the sort of pressure placed on athletes – and their funders – when there’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/sport/olympics/rio-2016/olympics-australia/australian-olympic-committee-boss-john-coates-hits-out-at-sports-commission-after-poor-rio-results-20160818-gqw5n3.html">an expectation of return</a> on taxpayer dollars.</p>
<p>It seems clear now that relying on “proven” sports to fulfil Australia’s Olympic targets may not be the best strategy. By excluding less obvious sports, Winning Edge has reduced the number of events Australia had an opportunity to medal in at Rio 2016. </p>
<p>Australia’s biggest medal haul was at the <a href="http://corporate.olympics.com.au/games/sydney-2000">Sydney 2000 Games</a> (58), where the nation was represented in 20 sports. In Rio, only 12 sports contributed to the final medal haul. And the Rio tally includes unexpected medals from shooting, archery and modern pentathlon - sports not targeted under Winning Edge. </p>
<p>It’s these surprise medals from smaller sports that may better embody the Olympic spirit and unite the nation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Gowthorp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia finished tenth on the medal table in the Rio 2016 Games, well below what the nation’s latest funding strategy had led people to expect.Lisa Gowthorp, Assistant Professor of Sport Management, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/511132015-11-24T03:52:57Z2015-11-24T03:52:57ZAustralia’s Olympics medal haul has been in decline: can we do better at Rio?<p>Ever since Sydney played host to the Olympics in 2000, Australia’s medal count at the summer games has been in steady decline. But with less than a year to go before <a href="http://www.rio2016.com/en">Rio de Janeiro</a> in Brazil plays host to the 2016 Olympics, there is some hope of a reversal in Australia’s fortunes.</p>
<p>To the rest of the world with an interest in Olympic sport, Australia with its almost <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Web+Pages/Population+Clock?opendocument">24 million population</a> and a gross domestic product <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html#as">ranked 20th</a> on the planet, consistently punches above its sporting weight.</p>
<p>While in absolute terms Australia is a successful sporting freak, as the graph below shows, Sydney appears to have been something of a watershed that evolved into a perceived mini-crisis in 2012.</p>
<iframe src="https://charts.datawrapper.de/MiJoF/index.html" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In the build up to Sydney, Australia showed a steady growth of producing top 8 performing athletes and teams who won more than their fair share of medals. This peaked at 135 top 8s and 58 medals to secure <a href="http://en.espn.co.uk/espn/sport/story/142367.html">4th place</a> on the Sydney tally. </p>
<p>All previous hosts win fewer medals in the post-home Olympic Games, and Australia was no exception. But Australia did distinguish itself by winning one more gold in Athens than in Sydney (17 v 16) to hold onto <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics_2004/medals_table/default.stm">4th place</a>.</p>
<p>In both 2008 and 2012, Australia produced fewer finalists and fewer medallists than the recent heady heights. Australia slipped to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/2012/medals/countries">10th place</a> in 2012 with the finally tally down <a href="http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/2012/medals/historical-medals-beijing-2008/countries">from 14 gold in Beijing</a> in 2008 to just 7 in London. All this while seeing Great Britain climb to third place with 29 gold medals and New Zealand being identified as a rising star in Olympic sport.</p>
<h2>Australia’s fall from grace</h2>
<p>Since 2000 Australia has experienced what is known as a three edition-losing streak, whereby its medals’ count has fallen in three consecutive Olympic Games. These are rare occurrences in Olympic sport and tend to be triggers for soul searching and action.</p>
<p>Australia’s current <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/ais/australias_winning_edge">Winning Edge</a> strategy, championed by the Australian Institute of Sport, is probably the most overt expression of change and innovation in Australia available.</p>
<p>So what are the causes of Australia’s apparent demise and how might we expect Australia to perform in 2016 in the Rio games?</p>
<p>After the global party that is the Olympic Games, host nations often take their eye off the ball and tend to experience a post hosting hangover. This is often accompanied by a freeze or reduction in funding, which in this case hoisted Australia on its own petard of “<a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/news-events/media-releases/spliss-more-money-in-equals-more-medals-out">more money in equals more medals out</a>”.</p>
<p>The discussion during the <a href="http://www.elitesportconference.com/">World Congress on Elite Sport Policy</a> in Melbourne over the past two days is that there are new nations that decide they want to do well in the Olympic Games and replicate the systems and investment that served nations such as Australia so well.</p>
<p>Look no further than the UK recruiting of Australian <a href="http://www.billsweetenham.com/">Bill Sweetenham</a> to help win Britain’s <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics_2004/3102801.stm">first World Championship women’s swimming gold</a> medal since the 1960s.</p>
<p>In the end there is a zero sum game where nations raise the ante in order to be more successful, and the already successful nations see their competitive advantage eroded. Australia has done nothing wrong other than failing to commit itself to the global sporting arms race of continuous improvement with little or no regard to cost.</p>
<p>When you have had your moment in the spotlight, other issues become the priority, such as the increasing prevalence of obesity and inactivity. It was not Australia’s fault that China wrote a blank cheque to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/2012/medals/historical-medals-beijing-2008/countries">top the table in Beijing 2008</a>, or that the UK government committed to fund a level of investment that would see it <a href="http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/19232685">finish 3rd place</a> in the medals table.</p>
<h2>Turning the medal table for Australian in Rio</h2>
<p>But there comes a point when decline is such that enough is enough and nations decide to wade back into the water to assert their authority. This is precisely what Australia has done since 2012.</p>
<p>So how do we assess Australia’s chances for Rio 2016? For the last two Olympic Games, Sheffield Hallam University has <a href="https://www.shu.ac.uk/research/sirc/our-expertise/elite-sport/medal-forecasts">made forecasts</a> of how the host nation will perform.</p>
<p>For 2008, the model suggested that China would win 46 gold medals and for 2012 it gave an answer of 27 for Team GB. On both occasions when these forecasts were published, respected experts described one of us (Simon Shibli) as mad because these forecasts were thought to be wildly optimistic.</p>
<p>Clearly not mad enough because both estimates were below the actual scores of 51 gold medals for China in 2008 and 29 gold medals for Great Britain in 2012.</p>
<p>Applying the model, founded on the research performed in the Sport Policy Factors Leading to International Sporting Success (<a href="http://www.spliss.net/">SPLISS</a>) project and based on population, wealth, political system, host nation status, prior performance and winning streaks, we estimate that Australia will achieve 7th place in the medals table at Rio next year. Australia should win 11 gold medals and 40 medals in total.</p>
<p>Australia will continue to do well in its traditional sports such as swimming, cycling, rowing and cycling. We expect to see Great Britain’s recent dominance in track cycling reduced and for Australia to be a beneficiary.</p>
<p>With the newly introduced sports for Rio, the rugby sevens give Australia a chance in both the men and the women’s teams and world number two golfer Jason Day has a decent opportunity to win a medal in the golf.</p>
<p>Whatever the final outcome in Rio, Australia will achieve more than its natural resources of population and wealth would otherwise predict. Success in Olympic sport is not about the resources you have at your disposal but rather the way in which they are harnessed and applied to delivering competitive athletes.</p>
<p>The Australian system has been the envy of the world since the 1980s and has not become bad overnight. In this regard the old saying “form is temporary but class is permanent” seems pretty apt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51113/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Shibli has received funding from UK Sport, sportscotland, Sport Wales, and Sport Northern Ireland for contract research linked to performance analysis in elite sport. He also receives support in kind from Infostrada Sports via access to the Podium Performance database.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hans Westerbeek receives funding from the Australian Sports Commission. Through Victoria University he is affiliated with the Australian Sports Commission in a strategic partnership. </span></em></p>Australia has struggled to win Olympic medals after the success in Sydney in 2000. But there’s hope that may change as we head towards the Rio games in 2016.Simon Shibli, Professor of Sport Management, Sheffield Hallam UniversityHans Westerbeek, Dean, College of Sport and Exercise Science and Institute of Sport, Exercise, Active Living, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/293332014-07-21T20:26:57Z2014-07-21T20:26:57ZFewer medals, but Glasgow 2014 will still be a gold rush for Australia<p>Some <a href="http://www.commonwealthgames.org.au/uploads/news/1/24/ppAM0OzG6s80q.pdf">71 nations</a> will participate in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/glasgow-2014">2014 Commonwealth Games</a>, starting on Wednesday in Glasgow – so what are Australia’s chances?</p>
<p>Many countries – <a href="http://www.commonwealthgames.org.au/page/81/glasgow-2014-team">including Australia</a> – are sending their largest ever Commonwealth Games teams. There will be an estimated 6,500 athletes and officials in Glasgow, 600 of them Australian (including <a href="http://www.commonwealthgames.org.au/page/24/latest-news">417 athletes</a>). </p>
<p>Earlier this year, the <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/">Australian Sports Commission</a> published its Commonwealth Games <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/ais/australias_winning_edge/sports_tally_2014/2014_benchmark_event_targets">medal targets</a>, and its estimate of a maximum of 152 medals for Australia is substantially below the tally for the 2010 Delhi Commonwealth Games of 178 medals (74 gold, 55 silver and 49 bronze).</p>
<p>This reflects a decrease in the amount of medal events as well as the better performance of other Commonwealth countries. </p>
<p>Australia has been the leading medal-winning nation at the past six Commonwealth Games, so let’s have a look at who we might see on the podium this time round.</p>
<h2>Swimming: July 24 – 29</h2>
<p>The swimming events start on Thursday, and Australia has <a href="http://www.swimming.org.au/article.php?group_id=28481">a 59-strong team</a> at these Games.</p>
<p><a href="http://results.glasgow2014.com/athlete/swimming/1030620/alicia_coutts.html">Alicia Coutts</a> won <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alicia_Coutts">five gold medals</a> in Delhi in 2010 is competing in four events in Glasgow: Women’s 50m Butterfly, Women’s 100m Butterfly, Women’s 200m Individual Medley and Women’s 4 x 100m Medley Relay.</p>
<p>With her in the team are three world champions: <a href="http://results.glasgow2014.com/athlete/swimming/1030619/cate_campbell.html">Cate Campbell</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Sprenger">Christian Sprenger</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Magnussen">James Magnussen</a>. Overall, the Sports Commission estimates that the swim team will win a total of 55 medals, one-third of Australia’s medals at the Games.</p>
<h2>Athletics: July 27 – August 2</h2>
<p><a href="http://results.glasgow2014.com/athlete/athletics/1029979/sally_pearson.html">Sally Pearson</a> is one of the 55 female athletes in the 102-strong Australian athletics’ team. </p>
<p>She and three teammates – <a href="http://results.glasgow2014.com/athlete/athletics/1029958/kim_mickle.html">Kim Mickle</a>, <a href="http://results.glasgow2014.com/athlete/athletics/1029997/dani_samuels.html">Dani Samuels</a> and <a href="http://results.glasgow2014.com/athlete/athletics/1029884/alana_boyd.html">Alana Boyd</a> – are expected to contribute to an estimated high of 20 medals in athletics at the Games. </p>
<h2>Hockey: July 24 – August 3</h2>
<p>The Australian hockey teams go into the Games with a strong record of gold medal success. The men’s team has won gold at all four Commonwealth Games in which hockey has been included. The women’s team has won the gold medal on three occasions. (The exception was in Manchester in 2002 when India defeated England.) </p>
<p>The men’s team, the <a href="http://www.hockey.org.au/National-Teams/Kookaburras-men">Kookaburras</a>, is the top ranked hockey team in the world, and the women’s team, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-15/hockeyroos-lose-to-the-netherlands-in-world-cup-final/5524486">the Hockeyroos</a>, won the silver medal at the World Cup in the Netherlands last month.</p>
<h2>Netball: July 24 – August 3</h2>
<p>Australia and New Zealand have two Commonwealth netball gold medals each, and have played each other in all four finals. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.theroar.com.au/2010/10/15/aust-nz-netball-sports-greatest-rivalry/">2010 Final</a> was an epic match and New Zealand won that game, 66-64, in double-overtime. </p>
<p>The margin between both teams in all four finals has been very small, and the Glasgow Games promise another close encounter in what is effectively the World Championships of the sport.</p>
<h2>Rugby Sevens: July 26 – 27</h2>
<p>Rugby Sevens first appeared in the Commonwealth Games in 1998. There has been substantial investment in this form of rugby union now it’s included in the Olympics from 2016. </p>
<p>Some 16 nations will compete for the Commonwealth title this year, but New Zealand has won the gold medal each time. Australia has been drawn in a qualifying group that includes England, Sri Lanka and Uganda.</p>
<h2>Cycling: July 24 – August 3</h2>
<p>There are 41 athletes competing for Australia in cycling. <a href="http://results.glasgow2014.com/athlete/cycling_track/1037971/anna_meares.html">Anna Meares</a> will be contesting the Sprint and 500-metre Time Trial. </p>
<p>The men’s road team named before the Games includes cyclists competing in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/tour-de-france">Tour de France</a>: Simon Clarke, Mark Renshaw and Luke Durbridge. The road time trials take place four days after the end of the Tour.</p>
<p>Australia has medal hopes in all of the remaining sports in the Games, but for many athletes it will be an opportunity to experience a multi-sport event for the first time. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29333/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Lyons does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some 71 nations will participate in the 2014 Commonwealth Games, starting on Wednesday in Glasgow – so what are Australia’s chances? Many countries – including Australia – are sending their largest ever…Keith Lyons, Adjunct Professor of Sport Studies, UC-RISE, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.