tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/michel-temer-27489/articlesMichel Temer – The Conversation2021-03-16T20:09:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1569312021-03-16T20:09:22Z2021-03-16T20:09:22ZProsecuting ex-presidents for corruption is trending worldwide – but it’s not always great for democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389908/original/file-20210316-13-13qy3e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C14%2C3159%2C1751&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Adoring fans celebrated Brazilian ex-President Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva before he began a prison sentence for corruption in 2018. Lula's conviction was recently annulled.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazilian-ex-president-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-raises-his-news-photo/943033610?adppopup=true">Miguel Schincariol/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former presidents are <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24758118?seq=1">being investigated, prosecuted</a> and even jailed worldwide.</p>
<p>In Bolivia, ex-President Jeanine Áñez was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/13/americas/bolivia-arrested-interim-president/">arrested on</a> terrorism, conspiracy and sedition charges on March 13. A week before, former French President <a href="https://apnews.com/article/nicolas-sarkozy-convincted-corruption-france-6ee89cb03ba8f3888ac64447ebf61f28">Nicolas Sarkozy was sentenced to prison</a> for corruption and influence peddling. </p>
<p>Israel’s sitting Prime Minister <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/world/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-trial.html">Benjamin Netanyahu</a> is currently on trial. Jacob Zuma, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-zuma/arms-deal-corruption-trial-against-south-african-ex-president-zuma-to-start-in-may-idUSKBN2AN0W2">former president of South Africa, faces trial in May</a>. And in the U.S., <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/15/politics/manhattan-da-trump-organization-family-compound-westchester/index.html">New York prosecutors are investigating</a> former President Donald Trump’s business dealings. </p>
<p>At first glance, <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/03/01/nicolas-sarkozys-jail-sentence-shocks-frances-political-class">prosecuting current or past top officials</a> accused of illegal conduct seems like an obvious decision for a democracy: Everyone should be held accountable and subject to the rule of law. </p>
<h2>Destabilizing prosecutions</h2>
<p>But presidents and prime ministers aren’t just anyone. </p>
<p>They are chosen by a nation’s citizens or their parties to lead. They are often popular, sometimes revered. So judicial proceedings against them are <a href="https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/voices.uchicago.edu/dist/5/539/files/2017/05/AJPS-2021_Pol-Scandal.pdf">inevitably perceived as political</a> and become divisive. </p>
<p>If the prosecution of past leaders is brought by a political rival, it can lead to a cycle of prosecutorial retaliation. </p>
<p>This is partly why <a href="https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/document/0019/4520699.pdf">U.S. President Gerald Ford pardoned</a> Richard Nixon, his predecessor, in 1974. Despite clear evidence of criminal wrongdoing in the Watergate scandal, <a href="https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/document/0019/4520699.pdf">Ford feared</a> the country “would needlessly be diverted from meeting (our) challenges if we as a people were to remain sharply divided over” punishing the ex-president. </p>
<p>Public reaction <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/09/09/archives/reaction-to-pardon-of-nixon-is-divided-but-not-entirely-along-party.html">at the time</a> was divided along party lines. But many people <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-nixon-pardon-in-retrospect">now see</a> absolving Nixon as necessary to <a href="https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/title/time-to-heal/author/gerald-ford/signed/">heal the U.S.</a></p>
<p><a href="https://sites.uw.edu/uwpoliticaleconomy/">Our research</a> on prosecuting world leaders finds that both sweeping immunity and overzealous prosecutions can undermine democracy. But such prosecutions pose different risks for mature democracies like France than they do in nascent democracies like Bolivia. </p>
<h2>Mature democracies</h2>
<p>Strong democracies are usually competent enough – and the judicial system independent enough – to go after <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-challenges-to-democracy-will-be-a-big-problem-for-biden-152218">politicians who misbehave</a>, including top leaders. Sarkozy is France’s second modern president to be found guilty of corruption, after <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16194089">Jacques Chirac in 2011</a>. The country didn’t fall apart after Chirac’s conviction.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sarkozy, wearing a face mask, walks through a glass building, trailed by another man in a suit. A police officer salutes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389912/original/file-20210316-22-770jnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy leaves court after being found guilty of corruption and influence peddling, March 1, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-french-president-nicolas-sarkozy-leaves-court-after-news-photo/1304713844?adppopup=true">Kiran Ridley/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In mature democracies, prosecutions can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/10/south-korea-just-showed-the-world-how-to-do-democracy/">hold leaders accountable</a> and solidify the rule of law. South Korea <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/01/16/south-koreas-president-curbs-the-power-of-prosecutors">investigated and convicted</a> five former presidents starting in the 1990s, a wave of political prosecutions that culminated in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37971085">2018 impeachment of President Park Geun-hye</a>. </p>
<p>But even in mature democracies, prosecutors or judges can weaponize prosecutions. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nicolas-sarkozy-jail-sentence-corruption/">Some observers say</a> the three-year prison sentence handed down to France’s Sarkozy – whose corruption conviction involves kickbacks and an attempt to bribe a magistrate – was too harsh. </p>
<h2>Overzealous prosecution versus rule of law</h2>
<p>Overzealous political prosecution is more likely, and potentially more damaging, in emerging democracies where courts and other public institutions may be <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/106591290605900306">insufficiently independent from politics</a>. The weaker and more beholden the judiciary, the easier it is for leaders to exploit the system, either to expand their own power or to take down an opponent.</p>
<p>Brazil embodies this dilemma. </p>
<p>Ex-President <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-lula/brazil-judge-annuls-lulas-convictions-opens-door-to-2022-run-idUSKBN2B02F0">Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva</a>, a former <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20180405-brazil-lula-suffers-downfall-stunning-rise">shoeshine boy turned popular leftist</a>, was jailed in 2018 for accepting bribes in what many Brazilians felt was a politicized effort to end his career. </p>
<p>A year later, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/21/brazils-former-president-michel-temer-arrested-in-corruption-investigation">same prosecutorial team</a> accused the conservative former President Michel Temer of accepting millions in bribes. After his term ended in 2019, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/world/americas/michel-temer-arrested-prisao.html">he was arrested</a>; his trial <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41755666">was later suspended</a>. </p>
<p>Both Brazilian presidents’ prosecutions are part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-brazil-is-winning-its-fight-against-corruption-71968">years-long sweeping anti-corruption probe by the courts</a> that has jailed dozens of politicians. Even the probe’s lead prosecutor is <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-operation-car-wash-a-corruption-investigator-is-accused-of-his-own-misdeeds-118889">accused of corruption</a>. </p>
<p>Brazil’s crisis either <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/02/27/the-sad-quiet-death-of-brazils-anti-corruption-task-force">shows nobody is above the law</a> – or tells the public that their government is incorrigibly corrupt. When that happens, it becomes easier for politicians and voters to view leaders’ transgressions as a normal cost of doing business. </p>
<p>For Lula, a conviction didn’t necessarily end his career. He was released from jail in 2019 and this March the Supreme Court annulled his conviction. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-lula/brazil-judge-annuls-lulas-convictions-opens-door-to-2022-run-idUSKBN2B02F0">New polling</a> shows Lula retains 50% public support. He is now <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/world/americas/brazil-lula-supreme-court.html">likely to run again for president in 2022</a>. </p>
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<h2>Stability versus accountability</h2>
<p>Mexico has a different approach to prosecuting past presidents: It doesn’t do it.</p>
<p>During the 20th century, Mexico’s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, established a system of <a href="https://themonkeycage.org/2012/12/what-do-legislatures-in-authoritarian-regimes-do/">patronage and corruption</a> that <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/voting-for-autocracy/F6671D230EC7C458A30035ADB20F9289">kept its members</a> in power and other parties in the minority. While making a show of <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/08/27/a-former-official-fires-a-legal-missile-at-mexicos-political-class">going after</a> smaller fish for corruption and other indiscretions, the PRI-run legal system <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=XljPDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT237&lpg=PT237&dq=PRI+impunidad+sistema+legal+autocracia&source=bl&ots=ORccgnvCG2&sig=ACfU3U27BRKEFgK9IFuutq6v4vVLYghRzg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiwgf-4uLXvAhWRs54KHaj9CjYQ6AEwB3oECA8QAw#v=onepage&q=PRI%20impunidad%20sistema%20legal%20autocracia&f=false">wouldn’t touch top party officials</a>, even the most openly corrupt.</p>
<p>Impunity kept Mexico stable during its transition to democracy in the 1990s by placating PRI members’ fears of prosecution after leaving office. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/governors-gone-wild-mexico-faces-a-lost-generation-of-corrupt-leaders-76858">government corruption flourished</a>, and with it, organized crime. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in face mask and face shield holds a sign reading 'trials for ex-presidents - sign here'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389913/original/file-20210316-20-1x4b7d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A protester in Mexico City last year calls for the prosecution of several former presidents implicated in a corruption scandal involving Mexico’s state oil company, PEMEX.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-activist-displays-a-banner-during-the-collection-of-news-photo/1228287609?adppopup=true">Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Mexico is far from the only country to overlook the bad deeds of past leaders, including those who oversaw human rights violations. Our research finds that just <a href="https://faculty.washington.edu/vmenaldo/Articles%20in%20Journals/ISQ%20Article.pdf">23% of countries that transitioned to democracy between 1885 and 2004</a> charged former leaders with crimes after democratization. </p>
<p>Protecting authoritarians may seem contrary to democratic values, but many transitional governments have decided it is necessary for democracy to take root. </p>
<p>That’s the bargain South Africa struck as apartheid ended after decades of segregation and human rights abuses. South Africa’s white-dominated government <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=zsdJDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Albertus+Menaldo#v=onepage&q&f=false">negotiated with Nelson Mandela’s Black-led African National Congress</a> to ensure they would avoid prosecution and keep their wealth. </p>
<p>This strategy <a href="https://anchor.fm/political-economy-forum/episodes/Karen-Ferree-Are-Voters-Tribal-er4u0q">helped the country transition to majority Black rule in 1994 and avoid</a> a civil war. But it hurt efforts to create a more equal South Africa: It still has one of the <a href="https://time.com/longform/south-africa-unequal-country/">world’s highest racial wealth gaps</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-growing-corruption-is-a-threat-to-south-africas-national-security-74110">Corruption is a problem</a>, too, as former President Zuma’s prosecution for lavish personal use of public funds shows. But South Africa has a famously independent judiciary, and Zuma’s prosecution is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-president-stands-on-solid-ground-in-the-fight-against-corruption-150305">supported by the current president</a>. It may yet deter future misdeeds. </p>
<p>Israel didn’t wait for Prime Minister Netanyahu to leave office to investigate wrongdoing. He was <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-democracy-fights-to-maintain-the-rule-of-law-this-time-its-israel-127584">indicted in 2019 for breaches of trust, bribery and fraud</a>; his trial is underway. </p>
<p>But it is fraught with delays, in part because as prime minister, Netanyahu can utilize the power of the state to resist what he calls a “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/18/world/netanyahu-police-investigation">witch hunt</a>.” The trial triggered protests by his Likud party and an unsuccessful bid to secure immunity, among <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/benjamin-netanyahus-successful-stalling-strategy-analysis-623967">other stall tactics</a>. Netanyahu was even reelected while under indictment.</p>
<p>Israel is partly a testament to the rule of law – and partly a cautionary tale about prosecuting leaders in democracies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156931/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From Europe to Latin America and the US, former world leaders are being investigated, tried and even jailed. In theory, this shows no one is above the law. But presidents and PMs aren’t just anyone.Victor Menaldo, Professor of Political Science, Co-founder of the Political Economy Forum, University of WashingtonJames D. Long, Associate Professor of Political Science, Co-founder of the Political Economy Forum, Host of "Neither Free Nor Fair?" podcast, University of WashingtonMorgan Wack, Doctoral Student in Political Science, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1016852018-08-17T12:15:38Z2018-08-17T12:15:38ZBrazil’s economy: Why I was wrong to be an optimist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232286/original/file-20180816-2921-15i5ufv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Where is the recovery?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flag-brazilian-661098802?src=rAakeGUIKFDOsFgS8NTrig-2-65">denielmeche</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tens of thousands of protesters in red shirts <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-15/thousands-march-on-brazil-s-capital-with-lula-s-fate-in-suspense">took over</a> the streets of Brasilia on August 15, the last day to register candidacies for the upcoming presidential elections. They were demanding that the Supreme Electoral Court accept the bid of Lula da Silva. Held captive in a cell in the southern city of Curitiba, the former president could only assert his political rights through an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/opinion/lula-brazil-candidacy-prison.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FDa%20Silva%2C%20Luiz%20In%C3%A1cio%20Lula&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=collection">op-ed</a> in the New York Times. </p>
<p>Lula remains the most popular politician in Brazil. The memory of economic prosperity under his government makes him favourite to regain the presidency, if only he is allowed to run. While that remains unclear, now that the presidential race is <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Profiled-Brazils-Main-Presidential-Election-Candidates-20180811-0008.html">officially underway</a>, the sluggish <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/indicators">economy</a> will be at the centre of the political debate either way. </p>
<p>The unemployment rate is above 12% and poverty and extreme poverty are on the rise. For the fifth year in a row, Brazil will run a sizeable primary budget deficit. A <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002570">recent study</a> linked the current government’s rash <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/09/brazil-austerity-cuts-un-official">austerity measures</a> to increasing child morbidity and mortality. The key question all presidential candidates will have to answer is, how they can <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-brazil-go-from-rising-bric-to-sinking-ship-57029">bring back</a> the booming performance that made Brazil one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brics-summit-in-johannesburg-heres-what-the-five-countries-are-looking-for-100465">BRICS</a>.</p>
<p>Two years ago, in <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-brazils-economic-rollercoaster-is-far-from-over-57372">an article</a> for The Conversation, I claimed that the Brazilian economy was “in for an upswing”. Against prevailing pessimism, I suggested the country would rapidly recover from the steep decline of 2015 and 2016, when GDP contracted by almost 8% – arguably Brazil’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39193748">worst recession</a> on record. </p>
<p>Stretching my argument to the limit, I predicted that an imminent recovery would “put whoever emerges victorious in the current political dispute in an excellent position to go on and win the 2018 election”. It is hard to see how I could have been more mistaken. </p>
<p>GDP grew by only 1% in 2017, and the IMF <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2018/07/23/outlook-for-the-americas-a-tougher-recovery/">has just</a> revised down its projection for this year to a modest 1.8%. Per capita GDP is now close to US$11,000 (£8,655) – the same as ten years ago. The government’s candidate, Henrique Meirelles can command <a href="http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2018/06/22/08fa14d3cef22ac80a3dcb2427ecda84ivc.pdf">no more than</a> 1% of voting intentions, and risks having to abort his presidential ambitions altogether.</p>
<h2>False dawn</h2>
<p>Earlier this year, it looked like economic recovery was finally on track. Brazil’s stock exchange started 2018 on a strong upward trend, anticipating the good results expected for the real economy. The Bovespa index – including all the Brazilian blue chips – <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EBVSP/chart?p=%5EBVSP#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">rallied</a> to a historical high, <a href="https://theconversation.com/lula-charged-brazil-seems-ungovernable-but-its-more-robust-than-it-looks-55905">following</a> Lula’s <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-politics-lula/brazils-lula-spends-first-night-in-jail-amid-fight-for-freedom-idUKKBN1HF0SK">imprisonment</a> in April. The IMF <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2018-04/imf-raises-brazils-estimated-growth-23-2018">was forecasting</a> an economic expansion of 2.3% for the year. Meirelles appeared on television spots as finance minister, selling optimism and setting the stage for his political campaign.</p>
<p>Yet all that seemed solid then melted into thin air. First, the government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-temer/temers-failure-on-brazil-pension-reform-leaves-tricky-task-to-successor-idUSKCN1G42Z9">failed to</a> pass a draconian reform of the pension system aimed at curbing spending. In May, following the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b6ea55c0-7e21-42df-a013-1ece7682bf44">economic crisis</a> in Argentina, foreign investors fled the Brazilian stock markets in droves, wiping away the gains of the year and weakening the real against the dollar. </p>
<p>Finally, a traumatic <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/05/brazil-truckers-roads-president-temer-economy">truck drivers’ strike</a> brought the country to a standstill for an entire week in June, paralysing production lines. Market forecasts are now <a href="https://www.itau.com.br/_arquivosestaticos/itauBBA/contents/common/docs/Scenario_Review_Brazil_201807.pdf">revising down</a> GDP <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-cenbank/update-2-brazil-central-bank-slashes-2018-gdp-forecast-after-truckers-strike-idUSL1N1TU0BH">expectations</a>, amid <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-inflation/brazil-mid-july-inflation-likely-outpaces-target-midpoint-idUSKBN1K62DV">rising inflation</a> and a rapidly deteriorating <a href="https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/brazil">fiscal situation</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Brazil’s GDP, 2010-18</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232265/original/file-20180816-2915-1sxme0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">*2018 is based on forecasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg">World Bank</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But why didn’t the current crisis follow the same pattern as <a href="http://www-personal.umich.edu/%7Ekathrynd/Brazil.w06.pdf">1998</a>, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/06/24/brazil.crisis/index.html">2002</a> and <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-journal-of-innovation-economics-2010-2-page-77.htm">2008</a> – to mention just the most recent jolts – and quickly pick up? Why is the rollercoaster cart stuck near the bottom of the track? What can the next president do to set the economy in motion again? </p>
<h2>State of the nation</h2>
<p>After taking office in 2016, the centre-right president, Michel Temer, embarked on a misconceived and poorly executed reformist agenda, which has failed to fix deeply entrenched economic imbalances or reignite growth. At the same time, the impeachment process against his predecessor, Dilma Rousseff, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/04/18/in-brazil-a-house-cleaning-or-a-coup/the-ousting-of-brazilian-president-dilma-rousseff-constitutes-a-coup">largely seen</a> as a coup by the left, has proved more traumatic than anticipated by the middle class and the political actors that pushed for it. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232297/original/file-20180816-2909-1llv3jy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘God bless the president.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rio-de-janeiro-brazil-may-182017-643192906?src=_ClRZSHs2G1JTyV5Q7iEKA-1-3">Antonio Scorza</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Temer imposed a strong cap on annual spending, constitutionally limiting it to 2015 levels in real terms for the next two decades. This forceful austerity was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/13/brazil-approves-social-spending-freeze-austerity-package">deeply unpopular</a> among Brazilians but <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9d8a1286-e805-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539">well received</a> by the financial markets. Nevertheless, its targets look increasingly unrealistic. To meet them, the next government would have to impose painful social spending cuts, starting with the ill-fated pension system reform, with dramatic social and political consequences. </p>
<p>Left and centre-left candidates such as <a href="https://mronline.org/2018/07/09/lula-or-nothing-the-dilemmas-of-the-brazilian-left/">Guilherme Boulos</a> and <a href="http://americasquarterly.org/content/aq-interview-ciro-gomes">Ciro Gomes</a> explicitly reject that option. Even if a pro-market candidate such as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/brazil-market-darling-wins-powerful-allies-will-voters-follow">Geraldo Alckmin</a> becomes president, the spending cap rule will probably be revisited. The scenario is totally unpredictable if extreme-right candidate <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/19/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-presidential-candidate-trump-parallels">Jair Bolsanoro</a> emerges victorious in October. Recently converted to economic liberalism, Bolsonaro, a former army captain, made his political career confronting minorities’ individual rights and defending the corporate privileges of the army. It is difficult to see how he would live up to the high expectations of his passionate followers, while also enforcing fiscal austerity. </p>
<p>To complicate things further, the current president, who is <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20180523-brazil-president-temer-will-not-seek-election">not seeking</a> re-election, slashed labour rights and defunded trade unions in the <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2017/07/20/an-overhaul-of-brazilian-labour-law-should-spur-job-creation">hope of</a> bringing down production costs and creating new jobs. The reform was imposed without negotiation, <a href="http://column.global-labour-university.org/2018/03/the-brazilian-labour-reforms-grave.html">triggering</a> job insecurity and opposition from labour-court judges. </p>
<p>In the absence of growth or investment, the expected explosion of new jobs simply did not happen. Worse, the downward pressure on salaries and the renewed risk of unemployment thwarted any possibility of a consumption-led recovery in the short term. </p>
<p>To revive the economy, Brazil is therefore down to relying on a surge in private investments or external demand. Again, the prospects are grim. Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43512098">trade war</a> will potentially harm global demand, while the permanent instability created by the impeachment process and the fragile <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/brazil/2017-04-19/case-lula">allegations</a> against Lula has made investors cautious until they see the election results. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-institutions-are-working-but-its-political-party-system-is-a-disaster-90889">claim</a> that Brazil’s government and judiciary are working well is becoming increasingly untenable, which is not helping the investment mood. </p>
<p>What next? My flawed predictions of two years ago should warn me against the pitfalls of economic forecast. Clearly Brazil’s immense potential is no guarantee of good economic performance. Only a couple of months until the elections, the frontrunner is behind bars and the economic agenda of the next government is anyone’s guess. </p>
<p>Let’s hope that recovery will not be hindered once again by more botched austerity reforms and the further deterioration of the country’s democratic institutions. With the world economy facing turbulence, it is difficult to imagine a way forward under the next president if domestic demand remains compressed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felipe Antunes de Oliveira has an additional role as a civil servant for the Brazilian Ministry of External Relations. </span></em></p>Only a couple of months until the elections, the frontrunner is behind bars and the economic agenda of the next government is anyone’s guess.Felipe Antunes de Oliveira, Lecturer, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1004652018-07-24T15:36:36Z2018-07-24T15:36:36ZBRICS summit in Johannesburg: here’s what the five countries are looking for<p>All eyes are on Johannesburg for the <a href="http://www.brics2018.org.za">2018 BRICS summit</a>, as the likes of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi take their places at the table. It marks the tenth annual gathering for this international organisation of the leading emerging economies. So what can we expect?</p>
<p>The summit of the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa – started in June 2009 at Yekaterinburg, when Russia hosted the leaders of this bloc, though it did not originally include South Africa. BRIC became a formal institution the following year, aimed at facilitating global political and economic transformation, and South Africa officially joined in 2011. </p>
<p>Much has been written about this group’s threat to the Western-dominated world economic order. BRICS formed the <a href="https://www.ndb.int">New Development Bank</a> in 2014, the first major international development bank with no participation from the <a href="https://www.oecdwatch.org/oecd-guidelines/oecd">OECD countries</a>. The following year it established the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/brics-contingent-reserve-arrangement-operational-arun-jaitley/articleshow/54741704.cms">BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement</a>, widely regarded as a rival to the International Monetary Fund. The bloc has also been trying to find new ways of engaging in international affairs by leading on key issues such as <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/brics/how-brics-is-dealing-with-climate-change-15553255">climate change</a>, <a href="https://iorj.hse.ru/data/2017/12/28/1160694810/A.E.%20Abdenur.pdf">regional security</a> and <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/terror-cyber-crime-hot-topics-for-brics-15761373">anti-terrorism</a>. </p>
<p>By 2016, the BRICS bloc had 41% of the world’s population and just under 30% of the territory. The five countries control 23% of global GDP, worth about US$40.6 trillion (£30.9 trillion), and 18% of trade. The group is growing impressively if you take it as a single entity, <a href="http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/842861463605615468/Global-Economic-Prospects-June-2016-Divergences-and-risks.pdf">averaging</a> 3.8% in 2015, 4.2% in 2016 and 5.1% in 2017 – though China and India <a href="https://www.saiia.org.za/speeches-presentations-other-events-materials/1237-brics-media-brief-economics/file">are growing</a> much faster than the rest. Xi Jinping in 2017 <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/world/china-watch/politics/brics-golden-decade/">referred</a> to the countries’ “golden decade”, though it does depend on who you are talking about. </p>
<h2>Trading insults</h2>
<p>The summit comes at a time when the West is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/opinion/the-decline-of-the-west-and-how-to-stop-it.html">arguably</a> in decline. We see the US threatening trade wars with most other countries, above all China, but also even allies like the EU. The threat to global trade <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trade-war-risk-dominate-brics-summit-africa-015514423.html">will be top</a> of the agenda at the BRICS summit – hardly surprising when China’s economic weight gives it such a powerful role within the bloc. Russian economy minister Maxim Oreshkin <a href="http://www.arabnews.pk/node/1344326/business-economy">said recently</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The summit is about the context … We are at a time when the US and China announce new measures almost every week.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Johannesburg will see much emphasis on consolidating members’ trade relations through the likes of reduced tariffs. This might boost trade between the countries, which has been <a href="https://www.saiia.org.za/speeches-presentations-other-events-materials/1237-brics-media-brief-economics/file">stagnant</a> or <a href="https://www.exportgenius.in/blog/trade-relations-among-brics-countries-intrabrics-trade-statistics-161.php">declining</a> in <a href="https://www.dailyo.in/politics/brics-goa-china-pakistan-russia-unsc-nsg-cpec-masood-azhar/story/1/13347.html">recent years</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229052/original/file-20180724-194152-1v9umh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trade is in US$ billions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.saiia.org.za/speeches-presentations-other-events-materials/1237-brics-media-brief-economics/file">SAIIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Africa and sustainable development will also receive much attention this year. Despite the heavyweight delegates list, South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa will no doubt do his best to steal everyone’s thunder both as host and debutante president. His country’s economy <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/06022992-68ad-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11">has been shrinking</a>, with <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/south-africa-economy-contracts-in-first-quarter-as-mines-decline">sectors such as</a> mining and farming in the doldrums, made worse by corruption problems that came to symbolise his predecessor Jacob Zuma’s administration. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa will be hoping to secure extra investment and trade agreements from his counterparts. The leaders of other African countries and institutions are also attending the summit as part of BRICS’ ongoing <a href="http://www.brics2018.org.za/brics-outreach">outreach programme</a>, following tours of the region both by Modi and Xi. These representatives will be particularly interested in the progress of China’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/central-asia-is-the-new-economic-battleground-for-the-us-china-and-russia-98263">Belt and Road Initiative</a> to reduce barriers across Asia, perhaps in the hope that it could one day involve them, too.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Brazilian delegation will be looking for new forms of co-operation that can benefit their <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f3d2cd90-1e46-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6">tenuous economy</a>, which is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-agriculture-trade/u-s-china-trade-war-could-hit-brazil-in-the-long-run-minister-idUSKCN1IP39P">threatened</a> by various knock-on effects from the American trade and currency war – with China its main trading partner. Brazil also stands in the shadow of <a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/12/whos-most-afraid-of-a-latin-american-debt-crisis-apart-from-latin-america/">debt problems</a> that are troubling much of Latin America. Expect to see President Michel Temer seeking more financial support from the New Development Bank, though his bigger goal should be deepening trade relations that will help his country’s balance of payments in the longer term. </p>
<h2>The Putin embrace</h2>
<p>We are perhaps not expecting President Putin to provide significant economic leverage to other members, but Russia’s substantial political influence will be his main card to play at the summit. At a time when Russia is on the verge of being a pariah to some countries, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/14/relations-britain-russia-now-dangerous-cold-war-warns-putins/">not least</a> the UK, it will suit Putin to demonstrate warm relations with his fellow BRICS members. </p>
<p>Following Putin’s recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-vladimir-putin-outfoxed-donald-trump-at-helsinki-before-their-meeting-even-began-99320">bilateral talks</a> with Donald Trump, the summit is a chance for Russia to enhance its global position and undermine Western containment, particularly the economic sanctions imposed after the <a href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2015/russia/sanctions-after-crimea-have-they-worked/EN/index.htm">Crimean crisis</a> in 2014. The ever closer ties between Russia and China will presumably be a theme, after China’s foreign minister recently <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/06/asia/russia-china-relations-us-intl/index.html">described</a> them as being at “their best level in history”. </p>
<p>As for India, the role it plays at the summit will be very interesting. On the one hand, Modi will be seeking new deals for his country, the second largest economy in the bloc after China. On the other hand, India is playing a <a href="https://www.dailyo.in/politics/india-china-ties-narendra-modi-xi-jinping-doklam-obor-unified-korea-us-pakistan-nsg-masood-azhar/story/1/23805.html">delicate geopolitical game</a> with the US, China and Russia as their spheres of influence wax and wane across Asia and the Middle East. Show excessive favour to one side and there is the potential for ramifications across the region. </p>
<p>In all, the summit is a useful opportunity for these countries to remind the world of what multilateralism can achieve, and chart new strategies for the coming decade. We may not see any significant leap forward as discussions get underway, but we’ll certainly see the emerging powers attempting to loud-speak their influence at a time of growing protectionism and uncertainty. This bloc has yet to create anything resembling a new world order, but the celebrations from the global south in Johannesburg will certainly reverberate around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100465/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xuebing Cao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With international trade facing its greatest threat in decades, this club of China, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and India will have much to say about it.Xuebing Cao, Lecturer in Industrial Relations, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/908892018-02-05T13:36:42Z2018-02-05T13:36:42ZBrazil’s institutions are working, but its political party system is a disaster<p>When Brazil’s former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had his conviction for bribery and money laundering <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/24/brazilian-court-upholds-corruption-conviction-for-ex-president-lula">upheld</a> this January, it once again forced Brazil to ask whether its government institutions are working, especially the judiciary. But while many on the left still <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-politics-analysis/brazils-left-sticks-by-wounded-lula-no-plan-b-idUKKBN1FE2LE">decry Lula’s conviction</a> as a thinly veiled “coup” against anti-neoliberal leaders, there is a growing consensus that due process has been thoroughly (if not always competently) observed. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/29/brazil-faces-a-big-elections-next-year-and-investors-are-strapping-in-now.html">2018 general elections</a> loom, the integrity of government institutions and the rule of law – exhaustively examined following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilma-rousseff-two-views-of-democracy-and-the-battle-for-brazils-future-63668">impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff</a> in 2016 – is a no longer Brazil’s primary concern. Instead, recent developments have exposed the chronic weakness of another institution in the Brazilian political playing field, one that is ultimately essential to the functioning of a dynamic and competitive system: the political party. </p>
<p>Puzzlingly, Lula still commands remarkable support among the members of his Worker’s Party (PT), and across much of the left. It’s understandable that Lula might still enjoy the support of a large portion of the working class, especially in his native north-east, where the effects of his enormously successful social policies were most pronounced. Then there is the fact that despite all that’s transpired, Lula still captures <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2018/02/01/brazil-lula-leads-presidential-election-poll-despite-corruption-conviction">around 34%</a> in the polls for this year’s presidential elections. The old Brazilian political adage “they steal, but they get things done” might be as relevant as ever.</p>
<p>It is also not impossible that some PT members still support Lula simply because they are implicated in the fraudulent activities for which party bosses have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/21/ex-treasurer-workers-party-sentenced-prison-petrobras-corruption-scandal">jailed</a>. But it’s less clear why several PT luminaries who are otherwise untainted, such as former senator <a href="https://veja.abril.com.br/blog/maquiavel/a-carta-de-eduardo-suplicy-a-donald-trump/">Eduardo Suplicy</a>, remain staunchly faithful to a leader convicted of corruption. One might expect, instead, some kind of mea culpa, an organised intra-party renewal process, or even an outright leadership battle.</p>
<p>Furthermore, despite a slight decline in numbers, the PT has managed to preserve its roughly 1.5m members, the second-largest formal party base in the country. It seems strange that the membership are apparently unwilling to either pressure the party to ditch its main spokesman, or leave the party altogether. </p>
<p>Are the PT’s internal audit mechanisms not functioning? Is power too concentrated at the top, leaving members alienated? Lately, the PT’s only real demonstrations of systematic unison have been the rallies in support of candidate Lula. And if Lula is barred from running – not yet a sure thing – those could soon be over.</p>
<p>Still, the PT is far from the only party with serious problems.</p>
<h2>Machiavellian moves</h2>
<p>The conservative Social Liberal Party (PSL) is tackling the fallout from a high-profile new member, <a href="https://qz.com/1003000/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-has-a-donald-trump-and-his-chances-at-the-presidency-are-looking-better-every-day/">Jair Bolsonaro</a>. A former army captain and congressman currently serving his seventh term in the national Chamber of Deputies, Bolsonaro is the leading right-wing contender for 2018, currently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/14/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-energy-drink-bolsomito">running second</a> in the polls after Lula. An advocate of torture and defender of the old military dictatorship, Bolsonaro has also demonstrated a limited understanding of the basic functions of government and the economy.</p>
<p>In the wake of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/21/brazil-police-crowds-rio-protest">2013 protests across Brazil</a>, the PSL “incubated” what it called a “startup” movement within its ranks. Named Livres (Free), it is composed of young intellectuals and activists. They share a zealous devotion to the Austrian School of economics, and eagerly circulate YouTube videos of free market godfather <a href="http://nakedkeynesianism.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/milton-friedman-on-economic-development.html">Milton Friedman</a>. The plan was to endow PSL with intellectual substance and improve its internal machinery; in exchange, PSL would provide the legally-required party name for Livres members to run for office. </p>
<p>The pact came to a crashing halt when PSL president Luciano Bivar suddenly announced that Bolsonaro would be the PSL’s candidate for the presidency. In an honorable but bold move that might cost it the chance to be in government next year, Livres immediately <a href="http://politica.estadao.com.br/blogs/blog-do-fucs/com-chegada-de-bolsonaro-livres-anuncia-saida-do-psl/">announced its departure</a>, battered copies of <a href="https://mises.org/library/road-serfdom-0">“The Road to Serfdom”</a> and all, from the PSL’s menagerie.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has left behind the Progressive Party, under whose auspices he was most recently elected to office. This was in fact the tenth party with which he has identified. Indeed, were it not for Livres and its extraordinarily consistent posture, his latest leap would hardly have raised eyebrows.</p>
<h2>Party organisation</h2>
<p>So why are these parties all doing so badly? The classic diagnosis of Brazilian political parties is that they are structurally feeble and unresponsive to both their militant bases and society in general. Organisational unity only seems to come together around election time; for the most part, parties in general have informal or ineffectual governance structures, where personal relations – and personalities – tend to matter more than procedural rigour.</p>
<p>The historical reasons for this remain relevant today. As in much of Latin America, parties in Brazil are often mere vehicles for patronage. They are a device for facilitating negotiations between regional and economic interests and the government, all in the guise of democracy.</p>
<p>The PT’s history is particularly instructive. It was originally a product of the 1970s New Left, uniting factory workers and intellectuals against the right-wing military government – and at first, it seemed like a promising change. But socioeconomic forces eventually prevailed, and the party ended up reproducing the shortcomings of the wider system. It’s so far too early to tell, but the recent decline in membership may indicate that the PT is headed for the same fate as most of the other parties represented in Congress: small, devoid of ideas, guided by personalities rather than principles, and bankrolled by shady special interests.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/brazils-new-political-movements">new movements like Livres</a> will manage to change Brazilian politics and reverse the chronically low levels of trust in political parties and politicians in general. What’s clear is that something has to give. A recent attempt at <a href="http://www.emia.org/news/story/5505">overhauling electoral laws</a> aimed to reduce the number of registered parties from 35 to a more manageable 10, but at best, that was a self-serving tweak by legislators. To properly fight corruption and renew the political class, parties need to be transformed from the inside out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felipe Krause has received funding for his PhD from the Federal Government of Brazil. The views expressed in this article are the author's own, and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Brazilian government.</span></em></p>Can South America’s biggest democracy run properly with a broken, corrupt political class seemingly unable to reform?Felipe Krause, PhD Candidate in Politics and International Studies, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/802922017-06-30T12:29:24Z2017-06-30T12:29:24ZBrazil’s president faces criminal charges and 2% approval rating – but here’s how he clings on<p>Brazil’s attorney-general, Rodrigo Janot, has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/27/brazils-president-michel-temer-charged-over-alleged-corruption">charged</a> the president, Michel Temer, with the crime of “passive corruption” – more commonly known as accepting a bribe. The country’s supreme court will now send the charge to congress’s lower house, the chamber of deputies, which will have to decide whether the court can try him. </p>
<p>To do that, two-thirds of the house’s members must vote in favour – if they do, Temer will have to step aside for the duration of the trial, and the president of the house, Rodrigo Maia, would become interim president. But whether or not Temer is sent to court, the spectacle of members of congress casting their vote for and against the criminal prosecution of the president is unprecedented in Brazilian political history.</p>
<p>The charge against Temer comes from the plea-bargained testimony of Joesley and Wesley Batista, two owners of the multinational meat company JBS. Their evidence includes a <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/audios-ouca-as-gravacoes-feitas-pelo-dono-da-jbs-com-temer-21360751">secretly recorded conversation</a> between Joesley Batista and the president, and a <a href="http://g1.globo.com/politica/operacao-lava-jato/noticia/lava-jato-investiga-se-propina-do-dono-da-jbs-a-deputado-do-pmdb-foi-para-temer.ghtml">video</a> of Temer’s former aide Rodrigo Rocha Loures leaving a pizzeria and hurrying towards a taxi with a suitcase containing $500,000 reals (£125,000). </p>
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<p>The audio and video, released by the Globo news network in mid-May 2017, resulted in the most serious charge yet to come out of the massive anti-corruption probe known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/qanda-brazils-latest-presidential-corruption-scandal-78144">Operation Car Wash</a> which began in March of 2014. Dubbed “Car Wash” because it began as a Federal Police probe into money laundering in a car wash in Brasília, this complex of investigations has now expanded to a gargantuan effort involving the federal police, the public prosecutor’s office and the judiciary.</p>
<p>Temer vehemently <a href="http://plus55.com/brazil-politics/2017/06/michel-temer-says-accusations-infamous">denies the charge</a> as a “fiction” and insinuated that the attorney-general had received money from JBS. He has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0b4dc6ea-3c03-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec?mhq5j=e1">ignored pleas to resign</a> made by the Folha de São Paulo newspaper and the Globo media conglomerate, as well as well-known political figures such as former presidents Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. </p>
<p>Although few prominent politicians are openly supporting Temer, the president is counting on the backing of enough members of congress to stave off a trial in the supreme court. His government’s approval rating is by some estimates now <a href="http://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/politica/noticia/6747810/dos-brasileiros-aprovam-governo-temer-aponta-ipsos-veem-brasil-rumo">as low as 2%</a>.</p>
<p>Members of the lower house who intend to shield the president from prosecution must make a difficult calculation. Some will be voting out of self-interest because they themselves are being investigated by Operation Car Wash’s anti-corruption team. They also know they will face the electorate in 2018 – and voting to defend an unpopular and allegedly corrupt president could well doom them at the ballot box. </p>
<p>But then again, many voters are feeling resigned. After all, if corruption is truly systemic, what point is there trying to work out who’s clean? </p>
<h2>Worn out</h2>
<p>Perhaps a more decisive issue come the next election will be the state of the economy. After two years of recession, the economy is projected to grow by less than 0.5% in 2017, while unemployment is at record-breaking levels of <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/01/news/economy/brazil-economy-unemployment/index.html">almost 14%</a>. The current political mess isn’t helping, but nor would the extended period of uncertainty that would follow a vote to send Temer to court. And if the economy doesn’t improve, even members of congress who vote to dispatch Temer may be tainted by association.</p>
<p>Brazil’s population, exhausted by a series of revelations of systematic corruption that have been fed to the media since the start of the Car Wash investigations, seems too shell-shocked to act. The president has only 18 months of his mandate left – and considerable political and legal resources. Protests against Temer have been much smaller than the 2015 and 2016 protests both against and especially in favour of impeaching his predecessor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilma-rousseff-two-views-of-democracy-and-the-battle-for-brazils-future-63668">Dilma Rousseff</a>.</p>
<p>One difficulty is that unlike in the case of Rousseff, Temer lacks an obvious successor – and the mechanism to install one is ungainly. If he were tried and convicted in the supreme court, that would <a href="http://plus55.com/brazil-politics/2017/06/brazil-electoral-court-temer">force</a> an “indirect election”, wherein congress would vote for a successor to serve out the remainder of the presidential term. But the law regulating such an election is vague and the sheer number of politicians under investigation for corruption means viable and popular candidates are thin on the ground.</p>
<p>Temer may yet survive – his image and moral authority badly tarnished, his political support frayed, but a survivor nonetheless, clinging to his presidency for dear life like someone tossed overboard at sea. If he endures, it will be a testament to the abject state of the political system, the devastating impact of the anti-corruption investigations on the political establishment and the seeming inability of Brazil’s democracy to renew itself and to evolve into a more transparent and accountable form of governance. </p>
<p>That renewal, if it comes, might not arrive until January 2019, when a new president would take office. Any new president will face daunting challenges – above all, unprecedented distrust of the political establishment and a legitimacy crisis that will make governing Brazil extraordinarily difficult for whoever takes on the job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pereira has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK and FAPESP in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. These are agencies that fund academic research. Anthony Pereira is also a member of the Council of the Brazilian Chamber of Commerce in Great Britain. </span></em></p>One of the world’s most spectacularly unpopular president might yet make it through.Anthony Pereira, Director, King's Brazil Institute, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/780232017-05-26T01:25:11Z2017-05-26T01:25:11ZBrazil plunges once more into political crisis, jeopardizing economic recovery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171041/original/file-20170525-23251-14sbefp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrations demanding Temer's removal from office have been growing. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brazil’s <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/brazils-corruption-scandal-brings-outsider-politicians">massive corruption scandal</a> – which has brought down dozens of politicians and business leaders – has ensnared its latest victim: President Michel Temer, who got the job after <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37237513">his predecessor was impeached</a>. </p>
<p>Allegations that Temer approved a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e38a68f8-3b7a-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23">bribe to a corporate executive</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/qanda-brazils-latest-presidential-corruption-scandal-78144">triggered demands</a> that he resign or be impeached as well. He has refused, even as protests <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/americas/brazil-michel-temer-brasilia-protests.html">have escalated and turned violent</a>.</p>
<p>The ensuing crisis threatens to derail a fragile economic recovery and the reforms <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-71807">Brazil</a> needs to get back on its feet. </p>
<p>But once again, a political scandal at the very top is getting in the way. The irony is that Temer’s alleged misdeeds threaten to undermine the economic upturn his own government launched. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Temer continues to profess his innocence and resist demands that he go.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ricardo Botelho</span></span>
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<h2>Temer takes charge</h2>
<p>Believe it or not, Temer only just completed his first year in office. </p>
<p>Previously Dilma Rousseff’s vice president, <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilma-rousseff-two-views-of-democracy-and-the-battle-for-brazils-future-63668">he assumed her duties</a> as the interim head of state in May 2016 after she was suspended and faced an impeachment trial in the Senate. He officially became president in August, when she was convicted and removed from office – though she was never directly linked to the the bribery and kickback scandal engulfing Brazil.</p>
<p>While the corruption scandal swirled around his government, Temer had never before been personally implicated. This changed on May 17, when a <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/operacao-usada-por-temer-como-motivo-para-receber-dono-da-jbs-so-ocorreu-10-dias-apos-encontro-21373492">Brazilian newspaper</a> reported on a secretly recorded conversation in which the president is <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/18/americas/brazil-temer-bribery-allegations/">heard encouraging the CEO of JBS</a> – the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-meatpackers-suffer-as-government-struggles-to-reopen-export-markets-1490293033">world’s biggest meat producer</a> – to provide hush money to a former lawmaker who’s currently in jail. Temer promised in return to help resolve a problem JBS had in Congress.</p>
<h2>Lifting up a sinking ship</h2>
<p>Given the cloud over Temer, even if he were able to serve out the remaining 18 months of his term – which appears increasingly unlikely – his ability to govern effectively and push through the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-23/brazil-downsizes-economic-reform-agenda-to-post-crisis-reality">tough economic reforms needed</a> to sustain the incipient recovery is doubtful. </p>
<p>Following <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-brazil-go-from-rising-bric-to-sinking-ship-57029">nearly a decade of sustained expansion</a>, Brazil’s growth <a href="http://www.latam.ufl.edu/media/latamufledu/labe/LABER-2016.pdf">began to lose steam</a> in 2011. In both 2015 and 2016, GDP contracted by over 3.5 percent. Inflation ballooned to nearly 11 percent in 2015.</p>
<p>The central bank raised interest rates in an effort to tame inflation, public debt and the fiscal deficit rose, unemployment and poverty grew – eroding the social gains of the previous decade – and millions of Brazilians began falling out of the middle class.</p>
<p>Temer, upon inheriting an economy in deep recession, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/michel-temer-vows-to-spend-political-capital-on-reforming-brazil">promised to revive it</a>. </p>
<p>His prescription – a combination of austerity and market-friendly reforms – <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-brazil-tilts-rightward-lulas-leftist-legacy-of-lifting-the-poor-is-at-risk-65939">was a break with the left-leaning policies</a> of his Workers’ Party (PT) predecessors, including Rousseff. His initial Cabinet – all male, all white – also stood in stark contrast to the inclusive PT governments.</p>
<p>The business community and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/stock-market">financial markets</a> welcomed Temer’s stewardship of the economy. The Bovespa stock market and real currency <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/brazil-s-real-advances-as-president-temer-vows-to-push-reforms">made big gains</a> on his assuming office. And he took significant steps to deal with the deficit. He <a href="http://www.latam.ufl.edu/media/latamufledu/labe/UF-LAS-Laber-030817.pdf">obtained congressional passage</a> of a constitutional amendment to cap increases in public spending at the rate of inflation for 20 years, and the government set up a new privatization program.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/brazil-emerging-from-its-worst-recession-says-finance-minister">economic situation improved</a>. Inflation fell, allowing the central bank to reduce borrowing costs, and foreign investment began to return. Most importantly, the economy <a href="http://marketrealist.com/2017/04/why-imf-slashed-brazils-economic-growth-outlook-in-2017/">was forecast to grow again</a>, weakly in 2017 but picking up in subsequent years. Unemployment had stopped climbing. </p>
<p>When I was in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo in March, Brazilians told me that their country seemed to be finally coming out of its economic malaise. I wished them well but was skeptical given the unresolved political environment.</p>
<h2>Unfinished business</h2>
<p>Indeed, there is much unfinished business in reforming Brazil’s economy. </p>
<p>For example, labor markets are very rigid, making it hard for companies to hire and fire, and the generous pension system is fiscally unsustainable. Winning passage of such reforms was always going to be difficult, but Temer’s growing unpopularity makes it even harder. </p>
<p>Despite his success in reigniting the <a href="http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/brazil">economy</a>, Temer’s standing in the polls has been abysmal, with <a href="http://www.euronews.c/2017/03/31/brazil-temers-popularity-slides-further-poll">just 10 percent rating his government</a> as “great” or “good.” And that was before the current crisis. </p>
<p>The revelations linking Temer personally to corruption allegations have dealt a fatal blow to prospects for sustaining the recovery and pursuing more reforms. </p>
<p>Temer continues to insist he will not resign, but the opposition is increasingly vocal. Should Temer vacate the presidency by resigning or impeachment, Congress would elect a replacement to serve until January 2019. </p>
<p>Who will take over at that point is very much up in the air. Given the bankruptcy of the traditional political class and economic elite, the country has a serious leadership vacuum. Two of the most recent presidents are under active criminal investigation as are members of Congress, cabinet ministers and business executives. Others are already convicted and serving time. </p>
<p>This is bad news for Brazilians, who deserve stable leadership, free of corruption and dedicated to strengthening the economy and improving their lives. The present turmoil is not conducive to such a favorable outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78023/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry L. McCoy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brazil’s president, who came to power after his ex-boss was impeached, now finds himself embroiled in corruption charges, which threaten to derail the economic recovery he has championed.Terry L. McCoy, Professor Emeritus of Latin American Studies and Political Science, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781442017-05-23T13:57:19Z2017-05-23T13:57:19ZQ&A: Brazil’s latest presidential corruption scandal<p><em>Brazil’s president, Michel Temer, is facing a major scandal over a tape purporting to show him condoning bribery and efforts to influence public officials. It’s another in a long series of interconnected public and corporate scandals that’s engulfed the Brazilian elite in recent years. Pedro Dutra Salgado explains a web of events.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Who is Michel Temer?</h2>
<p>Temer belongs to Brazil’s Democratic Movement Party (PMDB). He was elected as Dilma Roussef’s vice-president in 2014 and took charge of the country after she was <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilma-rousseff-two-views-of-democracy-and-the-battle-for-brazils-future-63668">impeached and ousted by parliament</a> in 2016. Since then he has proposed a series of harsh austerity “reforms”, slashing <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-pension-idUSKBN13U1VT">social security programmes</a> and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-reform-idUSKBN17T06O">workers’ rights</a>.</p>
<h2>What’s this latest scandal?</h2>
<p>On May 17, a <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/audios-ouca-as-gravacoes-feitas-pelo-dono-da-jbs-com-temer-21360751">recorded conversation</a> was handed over to investigators as part of a plea bargain with Joesley Batista, a businessman involved in corruption investigations, and then made public. On the tape, Temer is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/world/americas/brazil-michel-temer.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=1">seemingly told</a> that one of his allies who was arrested for corruption, former head of the Chamber of Deputies, the PMDB’s Eduardo Cunha, was being paid monthly bribes. (Cunha is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-39442005">currently in jail</a> for money laundering and tax evasion). To that, Temer replies: “You have to keep this going, OK?” In the same conversation, Batista also claims he can influence the decision of two judges and a federal prosecutor, to which Temer says: “Great, great.”</p>
<p>While not denying that his voice is heard on the tape, Temer’s lawyers <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-40007675">claim</a> it was heavily edited. But the impact of what’s been reported is nonetheless enormous; they implies that at the very least the president was aware of bribes and obstructions to ongoing corruption investigations. In his plea bargain deal, Batista also alleged that he illegally paid almost 2,000 politicians – Temer among them – a total of 500m reais.</p>
<h2>How does this relate to other scandals?</h2>
<p>Batista is being investigated as part of “Operation Car Wash”, a massive investigation into <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/odebrecht-braskem-agree-to-carwash-penalty-of-3-5-billion">bribery and illegal campaign financing</a> that touches on some public companies (notably Petrobrás) and many private ones. For its part in these practices Batista’s company, the meat distributor JBS, will probably be hit with a heavy fine, expected to be in the region of <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/r-brazil-prosecutors-say-reach-impasse-over-size-of-fine-in-jbs-deal-2017-5-1002029878">11 billion reais</a>.</p>
<p>If confirmed, that fine will be second only to the fine construction company <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-usa-idUKKBN17J1A7">Odebrecht SA</a> was slapped with in April 2017 by the governments of Brazil, Switzerland and the US. But for all that the fines are colossal, the plea bargain deals under which they’re issued mean the companies can still bid for public contracts.</p>
<h2>How might this affect Temer’s government?</h2>
<p>Given that it began with what amounted to a congressional coup against Rousseff, Temer’s presidency was always going to be fragile. He himself <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21718570-michel-temer-would-rather-be-unpopular-populist-brazils-accidental-consequential-president">concedes he is very unpopular</a>, and that his government depends on the support of congress and the media.</p>
<p>The day after the tape was released, the Federal Supreme Court <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/18/brazil-president-corruption-invesitgation-supreme-court">authorised an investigation</a> against Temer and impeachment requests were presented to the Chamber of Deputies. The president responded with a speech declaring he had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/18/brazil-president-corruption-invesitgation-supreme-court">no intention of resigning</a>, but some of his ministers have resigned, while various newspapers in Brazil are demanding he resign or face impeachment. </p>
<p>With all this public pressure, Temer will struggle to maintain the congressional support he needs to hold his government together – and in an apparent attempt to clear his name and thereby alleviate some of the pressure, he is now <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-40007675">asking the Supreme Court to investigate him</a>.</p>
<p>Since Temer was actually caught on tape apparently condoning and encouraging bribery, corruption and obstruction of justice, the case for impeachment is rather tighter than it was when Rousseff was dethroned.</p>
<p>Temer is also even more politically isolated than his predecessor was. Unlike Rousseff’s Workers’ Party (PT), which enjoys the loyalty of various social movements and powerful trade unions, the PMDB exerts power solely via its presence in congress, meaning its elected officials are more vulnerable to scrutiny by the mainstream media. If they want to remain the largest party in congress, the PMDB’s representatives might just have to turn against their own president.</p>
<h2>What about charges against other politicians?</h2>
<p>Besides Temer, Batista’s recordings also spell trouble for the senator Aécio Neves, whom Batista caught on tape <a href="http://veja.abril.com.br/brasil/aecio-tentou-barrar-lava-jato-mostra-gravacao-de-joesley-batista/">accusing</a> members of the government of being “too weak” to stop corruption investigations, as well as <a href="http://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2017/05/18/politica/1495068186_795498.html">asking for R$2m in bribes</a>.</p>
<p>Rousseff’s presidential predecessor, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10841416">Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva</a>, already faces multiple <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/world/americas/brazil-lula-corruption-charges.html">corruption charges</a>, and was in the last few days <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-lula-corruption-idUSKBN18I2Q1">formally charged</a> in an even more serious corruption probe. Both he and Rousseff have been mentioned in various plea bargains made in the Car Wash investigation, and there <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-lula-idUSKCN0W70TO">have been some reports</a> that both judges and the media have been pressing defendants to mention the former presidents.</p>
<p>Other members of the PT have been embarrassed by revelations that emerged from recent plea bargains between prosecutors and executives, especially the former finance minister <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-idUSKCN11W16Y">Guido Mantega</a>, though concrete proof of wrongdoing has yet to emerge.</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>People were protesting against Temer even before the tape emerged, and the recordings have only galvanised public opinion against the him. Impeachment proceedings might well be on the horizon; even if Temer isn’t impeached, the 2014 election that elected him and Rousseff may yet be voided because of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/23/joao-santana-dilma-rousseff-campaign-chief-arrested-alleged-bribe-money-petrobras">alleged campaign financing irregularities</a>. These allegations will be <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-court-idUSKCN18C2N7">heard in court</a> at the beginning of June.</p>
<p>Should Temer be removed from office, the presidency would go to the next eligible person in the line of succession. That would normally be the head of the Chamber of Deputies, but the current one, Rodrigo Maia, is facing a <a href="http://plus55.com/brazil-politics/2017/02/house-speaker-brazil-corruption">corruption inquiry</a> of his own, which might legally exclude him from the presidency. Next in line is the Senate’s president, then the president of the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>Whoever ultimately took office would have 30 days to call an “indirect election”, a process in which a new president would be elected by congress rather than the public, then remain in office until the 2018 general election. </p>
<p>This would be highly controversial. Many Brazilians feel that the current scandal-riven congress should not be tasked with electing a new president, and an indirect presidential election would feel uncomfortably like a return to dark undemocratic times. People have been claiming for a direct election using a popular slogan from the late 1980s: “Diretas já.” </p>
<p>There is now broad support for a proposed <a href="http://www.thedawn-news.org/2017/05/19/the-opposition-is-working-to-approve-direct-elections-at-brazil/">constitutional amendment</a> that would require any successor to Temer to immediately call a direct election, so that the next president would be chosen by the people, not politicians – who currently enjoy less public support than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78144/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pedro Dutra Salgado receives funding from the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). </span></em></p>Having seen off his predecessor in a spectacular impeachment saga, Michel Temer may be forced out of office for misconduct of his own.Pedro Dutra Salgado, PhD Candidate in International Relations, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/780242017-05-19T20:59:00Z2017-05-19T20:59:00ZBrazil’s tide against corruption swells<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170182/original/file-20170519-12263-lptjza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Calls for Brazilian President Michel Temer's ouster are growing louder due to allegations of government corruption.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0BXZXFB5XPU&SMLS=1&RW=1920&RH=950&POPUPPN=11&POPUPIID=2C0BF1SJAC0JC">Pilar Olivares/Reuters</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brazil’s political turmoil is going into overdrive, exacerbated in recent days by the discovery of a tape recording allegedly of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39957870">President Michel Temer</a> approving some US$600,000 in hush money to pay off a disgraced political ally. Temer denies wrongdoing and is rebuffing calls to resign <a href="http://g1.globo.com/politica/operacao-lava-jato/noticia/stf-envia-gravacoes-a-presidencia-e-divulga-conteudo-a-imprensa.ghtml">even though the new reports are</a> consistent with others that implicate the Brazilian leader and his associates. Along with leaked audio of damning conversations, a prominent news outlet has published photos said to show the <a href="https://twitter.com/JornalOGlobo/status/865248822523551744">wads of cash</a> used for the payoffs. </p>
<p>Despite the severity of this crisis, as a scholar of the political economy of corruption, I see some grounds for optimism. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-brazil-is-winning-its-fight-against-corruption-71968">As Paul Lagunes and I have previously written</a> for The Conversation, the ongoing investigations and convictions demonstrate that, overall, Brazil’s independent prosecutors and judges remain deeply committed to investigate and punish high-level corruption. They have strong public support, and their efforts to end the impunity of the business and political elite are beginning to succeed.</p>
<p>Whatever happens with Brazil’s leadership, more aggressive law enforcement against corruption is going to be necessary. And that’s not all.</p>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>Temer assumed the presidency a year ago on an acting basis and then officially a few months later. He came to power through the controversial ouster via impeachment of his democratically elected predecessor, Dilma Rousseff. Calls for his own removal have never let up. </p>
<p>The latest protests are calling for presidential elections, scheduled for October 2018, to take place immediately. Should Temer’s presidency survive, he will have trouble governing as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-17/brazil-s-temer-sees-support-fall-to-single-digits-estado-says">his approval rating had collapsed</a> into the single digits even before this damning news cycle.</p>
<p>Ongoing <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/brazil-political-crisis-deepens-as-president-temer-reportedly-taped-arranging-bribe/article35039223/">high-level efforts to prosecute</a> corrupt politicians and business leaders indicate that elements of the country’s system of accountability are working. At the same time, however, they suggest that political corruption <a href="http://en.mercopress.com/2017/05/18/seism-in-brazil-temer-could-soon-be-joining-rousseff-at-the-removed-ex-presidents-club">goes beyond the accusations of embezzlement</a> and payoffs to public officials that have fueled the scandals now threatening to topple Temer.</p>
<p>The alleged bribery that surfaced this week is related to a broad investigation of Brazil’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/17/world/americas/brazil-food-companies-bribe-scandal-salmonella.html">meatpacking</a> industry, which includes the <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/22/news/economy/brazil-meat-scandal/">world’s biggest beef exporter and the world’s largest poultry company</a>. This investigation is proceeding alongside the prosecution of widespread bribery tied to Petrobras, the country’s vast oil company. But ensuring government integrity will take more than cracking down on any specific sphere of wrongdoing. </p>
<p>Corruption is a familiar risk for all governments, and a range of policy responses can be effective, such as policy redesign, civil service reform, increased transparency and strengthened oversight, as I wrote in <a href="http://news.yale.edu/2016/04/27/book-corruption-and-government">my book on this topic with professor Bonnie Palifka</a>.</p>
<p>Complicating Brazil’s anti-corruption drive, however, are the government’s plans for deep economic and social policy reforms that would inflict pain on much of the population. To carry out such policies, Brazil needs the electorate’s confidence and the ability to explain how present sacrifices can lead to future benefits. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/12/brazil-president-michel-temer-illegal-campaign-donations">Given their ingrained unpopularity</a>, Temer and his allies were always going to have trouble making that case to the public. The latest scandals will make such persuasion all but impossible.</p>
<p>This crisis should be leveraged for the good of Brazilian democracy. Controlling corruption is possible, but honest prosecutors and judges can’t do it by themselves.</p>
<h2>A deeper problem</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170184/original/file-20170519-12221-kcxb8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman hangs banners accusing Brazilian President Michel Temer of seizing power in a coup d'etat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0BXZXFB5XPU&SMLS=1&RW=1920&RH=950&POPUPPN=16&POPUPIID=2C0BF1SJGOEIL#/SearchResult&VBID=2C0BXZXFB5XPU&SMLS=1&RW=1920&RH=950&PN=2&POPUPPN=115&POPUPIID=2C0FQE30QHK65">Pilar Olivares/Reuters</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many obstacles that stand in the way of a cleaner political system. Brazil has over 30 political parties and none of them can win an outright legislative majority. Lawmakers must constantly renegotiate their political loyalties, and all presidents have a motive to deploy questionable tactics to amass and sustain governing coalitions. </p>
<p>Having a multitude of political parties may seem democratic, but it also invites <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0140217">legislative chaos</a>, with small parties competing for <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-faculty-member-scott-mainwaring-brazilian-democracy-is-not-under-threat-of-breaking-down">payoffs in exchange for backing</a> the president’s policies. </p>
<p>Brazil has actively debated in the past whether to <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/1999/12/politics-brazil-movement-for-parliamentary-system-picks-up-steam/">shift to a parliamentary system</a>, an option voters rejected in a 1993 plebiscite. That shift might help solve some political problems, but it’s not clear that substituting a <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/gov2126/files/kunicova_ackerman.pdf">prime minister for a president is an improvement</a>. If drastic constitutional reform is too radical to contemplate, setting thresholds for parties to meet before their lawmakers may hold seats in Congress could help. Germany <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-election-system-explained-a-923243.html">offers one model</a> for this approach.</p>
<p>Reforms along those lines would not end corruption by themselves. But they would reduce the incentives for politicians to govern South America’s largest country through graft. Although it will be hard for Brazilians to look beyond their daily dose of scandal, the real question is whether popular pressure will bring about reforms with the potential to revitalize Brazilian democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Rose-Ackerman is a board member of the Coalition for Integrity a U.S.-based organization concerned with anti-corruption and good governance; she will be a member of a group advising the Inter-American Development Bank on anti-corruption policy.</span></em></p>Brazil’s political crisis is spiraling to a new level amid the release of recordings that allegedly caught the president authorizing a bribe. Fixing this mess will take more than a personnel change.Susan Rose-Ackerman, Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence (Law and Political Science), Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/716632017-01-27T07:33:55Z2017-01-27T07:33:55ZFacing unemployment, austerity and scandal, Brazil struggles to keep it together<p>As if 134 deaths in a two-week rash of <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/06/508512559/dozens-of-inmates-killed-in-another-brazilian-prison-riot">prison riots</a> were not dramatic enough for Brazil, on <a href="https://theintercept.com/2017/01/20/small-plane-crash-that-killed-brazils-key-corruption-judge-demands-investigation-and-protection-from-temer/">January 19 a plane crash </a> killed Teori Zavascki, the Supreme Court justice overseeing a high-profile nation-wide corruption case known as <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/06/24/brazil.crisis/index.html">Operation Carwash</a>, which has incriminated the upper echelons of national politics. </p>
<p>Brazil, as the saying goes, is not for amateurs. That’s long been true of South America’s <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/print_br.html">most populous nation and biggest economy</a>, which has seen many ups and downs since toppling its military dictatorship in 1985 – including prior <a href="https://nacla.org/article/brazil-impeachment">impeachments</a> and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/06/24/brazil.crisis/index.html">debt crisis</a>.</p>
<p>But, as Brazilians are now coming to realise, things can always get worse. Today the country of 200 million has one of the world’s <a href="http://homicide.igarape.org.br">highest homicide rate</a> and is contending with a storm of competing and colluding crises: economic, political, and social. </p>
<h2>The great recession</h2>
<p>Brazil is facing a severe economic crisis. After the <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-8">slowdown in China</a> and sharp <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/459ef70a-4a43-11e5-b558-8a9722977189">drop in commodity prices</a>, various Latin American nations have seen the end of the past decade’s short – but bright – period of higher <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/aug/27/inequality-latin-america-undp">economic growth and inequality reduction</a>. </p>
<p>But Brazil’s decline has been particularly steep. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk by <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-economy-shrinks-in-fourth-quarter-1457008738">3.8% in 2015</a> and over <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2016-08/brazil-government-increased-gdp-growth-forecast-16-2017">3% in 2016</a>, while unemployment rose from 8.8 million to <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/04/news/economy/brazil-economy-jobs-crisis/">12 million in one year</a>.</p>
<p>Elements of the crisis pre-date president Dilma Rousseff’s truncated second term (2015-2016). But the sharp fiscal consolidation program she began implementing in 2015 helped turn an economic slowdown into the deepest recession in a century. Rousseff became a believer in <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-fiscal-idUSKBN0NS04Z20150507">expansionary fiscal austerity</a>, reducing public investment by more than 30% in 2015 and slashing <a href="http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/6873/1/TD_2215.PDF">federal spending</a>.</p>
<p>This tactic caused both the fiscal system and the broader national economy to deteriorate. As GDP contracted, so did federal tax revenues, dropping <a href="http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2016/01/com-atividade-fraca-arrecadacao-tem-pior-desempenho-em-5-anos-em-2015.html">5.6% in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>Millions <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/12/29/brazil-record-unemployment-rate-rises-by-33-rio-de-janeiro-hangs-like-a-loose-tooth/#6b553dfb2160">lost their jobs</a>, returning the unemployment rate nearly to its pre-boom levels. And Rousseff’s popularity fell, reaching a record low of <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-presidents-approval-rating-hits-record-low-1434890135">9% in June 2015</a>.</p>
<p>Which leads us to the next issue: president Rousseff’s controversial impeachment, and the turmoil surrounding it.</p>
<h2>Political chaos</h2>
<p>The Operation Carwash probe, which was launched in 2015, did not directly implicate Rousseff. But it uncovered corruption among members of her Workers’ Party, along with lawmakers from most of the country’s <a href="http://meucongressonacional.com/lavajato/partidos">numerous political parties</a>. These swirling scandals inflated a generalised <a href="http://www.ibope.com.br/pt-br/noticias/Paginas/Instituicees-politicas-perdem-ainda-mais-a-confianca-dos-brasileiros.aspx">distrust in Brazil’s political system</a>. </p>
<p>The door was then open for her ouster, which took eight months to be realised. When the senate finally voted 61-20 in August 2016 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeached-removed-president.html?_r=0">to impeach Rousseff</a> for breaking budgetary rules, many believed economic stability would return.</p>
<p>Instead, Brazil’s economy contracted by another 3.2% in 2016, according to the <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2016-08/brazil-government-increased-gdp-growth-forecast-16-2017">latest estimates</a>, frustrating hopes for a quick recovery. Many states are now in a calamitous financial situation. </p>
<p>The vast majority of the country’s economic elites supported Rousseff’s ouster. But many millions marched in support of her, and they are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/13/brazil-anti-government-protests-dilma-rousseff-rio-de-janeiro">deeply unsatisfied with the leadership</a> of new president Michel Temer. </p>
<p>This polarising scenario has plunged Brazilian institutions into deep chaos.</p>
<p>President Temer’s close ally and former minister of planning, Romero Jucá, was <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36365781">caught on tape</a> conspiring to obstruct Operation Carwash. This revelation all but confirmed that the impeachment process was an attempt by corrupt lawmakers to stop investigations into their illegal activities. </p>
<p>No wonder the plane crash that killed Justice Zavascki – just a few days before a crucial next step in the Supreme Court case – is <a href="http://time.com/4642972/brazil-teori-zavascki-brazil-corruption/">raising so much suspicion</a>.</p>
<p>Six ministers from Temer administration have resigned amid corruption charges, and investigations have implicated other major figures in the president’s Brazilian Democratic Party Movement (PMDB). </p>
<p>Former congressional president Eduardo Cunha, who led the push to impeach Rousseff based on tenuous allegations of a minor crime, was arrested for taking US$5 million in bribes from a company that won <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37709537">contracts with the state-run Petrobras</a> oil company. The senate president also nearly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/08/brazils-top-court-overturns-ban-on-senate-head-renan-calheiros">stepped down</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, polls from <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN1241M3">October 2016</a> show that just 14% of Brazilians approve of Temer’s government. </p>
<h2>Unpopular reforms</h2>
<p>Despite its unpopularity, congress has mustered the required three-fifths majority to approve a series of fiscal reforms. </p>
<p>In December it passed what is arguably the <a href="http://www.vox.com/world/2016/12/15/13957284/brazil-spending-cap-austerity">harshest austerity measure</a> in the world: freezing the federal budget at its 2016 level for the next two decades. The cap means that funding for education, health care, pensions, infrastructure and other government programmes will remain relatively constant (except for inflation), in real terms, until 2036. </p>
<p>In failing to account for any growth in Brazil’s population or economy, the spending cap may <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Brazil-Is-About-to-Institutionalize-Neoliberalism-For-2-Decades-20161006-0023.html">destroy</a>, in slow motion, the country’s incipient welfare state. Brazil’s public health-care system, already precarious, will be too underfunded to adequately serve its ageing population – a disaster particularly <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/brazil-austerity-move-slammed-disaster-poor-161217185527208.html">for the poor</a>.</p>
<p>An alternative way to cut the fiscal deficit would be taxing the incomes of the very rich, 65% of which is exempt under Brazil’s <a href="http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2016/10/concentracao-de-renda-cresce-e-brasileiros-mais-ricos-superam-74-mil.html">unfair system</a>. But this is not even up for discussion. </p>
<p>So, next up, the government has announced a draconian <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-12/07/c_135887869.htm">reform of the pension system</a> and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-labor-idUSKBN1582UI?il=0">deregulation of labour laws</a>.</p>
<h2>Future prospects</h2>
<p>Today, Temer’s fragile government is essentially surviving based on the dramatic setbacks to the Supreme Court’s corruption probe and its tough fiscal reforms, which are popular among economic elites. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, both are also serving to deepen <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/12/16/brazil-temer-economy-petrobras-lavajato/#52d2346467ac">widespread distrust</a> of the government. It is unclear whether Temer will make it to December 31 2018, when Rousseff’s term would normally have ended. </p>
<p>It’s likely that only the next Brazilian presidential election can end the current turbulence and restore trust in the nation’s institutions. </p>
<p>But if the results of recent mayoral elections are any indication, things don’t look good for the left. In Rio de Janeiro, fed-up voters chose a <a href="https://theconversation.com/rio-de-janeiros-new-evangelical-mayor-could-threaten-the-citys-famed-diversity-68138">conservative evangelical pastor</a>, while São Paulo put in power a <a href="https://theconversation.com/sao-paulos-drug-policies-are-working-will-the-new-mayor-kill-them-67129">conservative wealthy businessman</a>. </p>
<p>And things could yet get worse. According to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f9ee01ca-ce49-11e6-864f-20dcb35cede2">recent presidential polling</a>, public support for Congressman Jair Bolsonaro, who openly longs for the “good old days” of Brazil’s military dictatorship, is climbing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Carvalho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Things keep getting worse for South America’s most populous nation and biggest economy. What is going on, Brazil?Laura Carvalho, Professor of Economics, Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/697572016-12-06T07:13:56Z2016-12-06T07:13:56ZNo food, no water, no sleep: is Brazil torturing student protesters?<p>Brazil’s public relations disaster has gone from bad to worse. In September, congress <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeached-removed-president.html?_r=0">impeached president Dilma Rousseff</a> for dubious reasons, in what some have called a “democratic coup d'etat”. Since then, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37273027">street protests against the new government</a> have been violently repressed. </p>
<p>Now, police are responding violently to children participating in school sit-ins. </p>
<h2>Techniqiues ‘more commonly associated with torture’</h2>
<p>For the past two months, public school students across the country have been occupying their buildings to protest proposed educational reforms. The movement, which started <a href="http://www.teachersolidarity.com/blog/brazilian-school-students-still-occupying-for-public-education">in Paraná state</a> in October, has spread to 221 universities and 1,000 secondary schools and gained the support of labour unions, civil associations and social movements.</p>
<p>The peaceful actions, in which students halt normal teaching activities by chanting pro-education slogans, seek to publicise the damage that would be done if proposed Provisional Measure Nº 746 eliminates subjects such as art, sociology and philosophy from the syllabus, <a href="http://www.cnte.org.br/index.php/comunicacao/noticias/17155-analise-da-medida-provisoria-n-746-que-trata-da-reforma-do-ensino-medio.html">among other possible cuts</a>. Pupils are also reaching out to their communities to explain the issues, undertaking cultural activities and participating in city council and legislative sessions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148528/original/image-20161204-25645-1wntr2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148528/original/image-20161204-25645-1wntr2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148528/original/image-20161204-25645-1wntr2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148528/original/image-20161204-25645-1wntr2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148528/original/image-20161204-25645-1wntr2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148528/original/image-20161204-25645-1wntr2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148528/original/image-20161204-25645-1wntr2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public school students in São Paulo decrying state budget cuts and changes to syllabi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/29/Estudantes_fazem_manifesta%C3%A7%C3%A3o_por_melhorias_na_educa%C3%A7%C3%A3o.jpg">Rovena Rosa/Agência Brasil Fotografias</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The students hope to pressure the government into engaging with society about the proposed reforms, which it has thus far eschewed. </p>
<p>Publicly, Brazilian President Michel Temer <a href="http://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2016/11/temer-diz-em-entrevista-radio-que-e-contra-ocupacao-de-escolas.html">has assigned little importance</a> to the sit-ins, saying the kids “don’t even know what the [budget freeze] is really about”. </p>
<p>But behind the scenes, the government has prevailed on courts to block the occupations. In Paraná State, for example, a judge ordered schoolchildren to <a href="http://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/sob-pressao-da-justica-estudantes-secundaristas-completam-um-mes-de-ocupacoes-nas-escolas">leave voluntarily</a> on penalty of a daily fine of R$10,000 (US$2,500). That’s an exorbitant amount for Brazil’s largely low-income public school families. </p>
<p>Other courts have authorised aggressive reprisals more commonly associated with torture, says the group <em><a href="https://www.facebook.com/AdvogadosPelaDemocracia/">Advogados pela Democracia</a></em> (Lawyers for Democracy), which is assisting the youngsters pro bono. Military police have cut off the supply of electricity, food and water to occupied schools in Paraná. In Brasilia, the police have ruled favourably on depriving students of sleep through the unceasing use of noisemakers. </p>
<p>Such techniques <a href="http://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/politica/2016/11/justica-do-df-determina-uso-de-tecnicas-de-tortura-contra-estudantes-em-ocupacoes-8772.html">violate child protection laws</a>. And it’s significant that the last time they were deployed was <a href="https://blogdopensar.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/contra-a-tortura-de-estudantes-no-brasil-apelo-a-solidariedade-internacional/">during Brazil’s military dictatorship</a> (1964–1985).</p>
<h2>Sit-ins that are both practical and symbolic</h2>
<p>The sight of children occupying schools, which are, after all, public places, should remind Brazilians of education’s central function: to help us become rational, civilised human beings who can live harmoniously in a society. That’s the philosophy that Jean-Jacques Rousseau detailed in his 1762 book <a href="https://fr.wikisource.org/wiki/%C3%89mile,_ou_De_l%E2%80%99%C3%A9ducation/%C3%89dition_1782">Emile, or Treatise on Education</a>. </p>
<p>Public school students know from firsthand experience that in Brazil this value has been lost, and they are fighting to prevent further deterioration of a long-struggling but critical public asset.</p>
<p>Though Brazil’s post-dictatorship 1988 Constitution defines education as a universal social right and a duty of the state, in practice it has long been restricted to elites. Efforts to <a href="http://portal.mec.gov.br/index.php?option=com_docman&view=download&alias=15774-ept-relatorio-06062014&Itemid=30192">democratise education</a> have made some progress but left significant gaps.</p>
<p>From 1990 to 2013, the national dropout rate of children aged seven to 18 years decreased from 19.6% to 7%, <a href="http://www.ibge.gov.br/english/">according to the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics</a>. But the <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/educacao/noticia/2016-03/censo-escolar-3-milhoes-de-alunos-entre-4-e-17-anos-estao-fora-da-escola">2013 national household survey</a> showed that more than 3 million boys and girls still do not attend school regularly.</p>
<p>Race and geography easily identifies these excluded youngsters. Most are poor, black or indigenous, and they live in either poor urban outskirts, semi-arid drylands of northeast Brazil, Amazon rainforest or remote rural areas. Many poor kids must abandon their studies to help <a href="https://www.unicef.org/brazil/pt/activities.html">support their families</a>. Others have special needs that schools can’t accommodate.</p>
<p>Given this reality, the protesting students are criticising more than budget cuts; they’re questioning Brazilian values.</p>
<h2>The many faces of Brazil’s crisis</h2>
<p>Attacks on education are in line with the general rightward shift that followed Dilma Rousseff’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RszQqn3yQ%5D(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RszQqn3yQ">impeachment</a>. </p>
<p>Her replacement, Michel Temer, quickly began to address what he calls a “fiscal crisis”, implementing a new tax structure and reforming entitlements. New <a href="http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2016/09/1816450-reforma-da-previdencia-exige-mais-10-anos-de-contribuicao.shtml">social security legislation</a> raises the retirement age from 55 to 70 while curtailing benefits, and proposed legislation would <a href="http://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2016/09/10/politica/1473462192_260308.html">limit workers’ rights</a>.</p>
<p>The Temer government’s <a href="http://www.brasil247.com/pt/blog/terezacruvinel/264258/A-mentira-do-endividamento-explosivo-para-justificar-a-PEC-55.htm">20-year freeze on state spending</a> promises to wreak havoc on many federal programs, including education. </p>
<p>Other proposed education reforms have an ideological bent. The Temer administration wants to enable high schoolers to sign up for part-time vocational training in schools, rather than on a supplementary basis (as current law stipulates). <a href="http://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/educacao/2016/09/reforma-do-ensino-medio-de-temer-desagrada-especialistas-estudantes-e-ministerio-publico-1018.html">Specialists say</a> the measure would widen inequality, as poorer pupils opt for vocational training classes and leave school to take low-skill jobs while wealthier students graduate to get better positions. </p>
<p>The new reforms come after years of cuts to education disguised as reform. In December 2012, São Paulo’s state government introduced <a href="http://www.apeoesp.org.br/noticias/noticias/governo-alckmin-acaba-com-aulas-de-geografia-historia-e-ciencias/">changes to secondary school curricula</a>, reducing arts, philosophy, sociology and geography classes. The then-governor <a href="http://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2015/12/10/politica/1449777218_852412.html">upheld</a> that unpopular decision, but when, in 2015, the state proposed closing 90 schools to save money, some 200 sit-ins forced the government to backtrack. </p>
<p>Paraná state also <a href="http://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/crise-no-parana-8749.html">responded to fiscal challenges</a> in 2015 by eliminating 2,200 classes and laying off 33,000 educators. Teachers finally went on strike when the government proposed transferring R$8.5 billion (US$2.5 billion) from the civil servants’ pension fund to government coffers after having refused to raise salaries even modestly. </p>
<p>Other Paraná civil servants joined the teachers’ walkout, triggering one of Brazil’s worst <a href="http://www.cartacapital.com.br/sociedade/um-dia-triste-para-os-professores-do-parana-506.html">outbreaks of police violence</a>. Around 200 teachers were injured.</p>
<p>Local newspapers and education reporters covered these events to a certain extent, but it has taken state-sponsored torture of children to capture nationwide attention. Now, with the whole country watching (along with, increasingly, the world), Brazil’s government is under pressure to listen to its children’s voices, and not use the courts and police clad in riot gear to muzzle them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Renato Francisco dos Santos Paula does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The last time the country’s courts authorised such harsh police techniques as sleep deprivation and starvation was during the dictatorship.Renato Francisco dos Santos Paula, Professor, Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/672022016-10-18T07:41:04Z2016-10-18T07:41:04ZWhy the BRICS coalition still matters<p>For years, Western newspapers have depicted the BRICS grouping – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – as either <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/352e96e8-15f2-11e1-a691-00144feabdc0">nonsensical or threatening</a>. Indeed, after Brazil and Russia entered recession and growth in China slowed in recent years, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/10/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-brics/?utm_term=.83192019f42b">Washington-based observers</a> predicted the initiative’s imminent demise.</p>
<p>Well, they’re wrong. This past weekend, national leaders gathered in Goa for the <a href="http://brics2016.gov.in/content/innerpage/8th-summit.php">8th BRICS Summit</a>, showing that BRICS countries have not only continue to exist as a bloc but are, in fact, strengthening their cooperation.</p>
<h2>Towards stronger cooperation</h2>
<p>The group has begun to institutionalise, holding regular ministerial meetings in areas such as education, health and national security. And there are frequent encounters between BRICS presidents and foreign ministers. </p>
<p>Perhaps most notable is the creation of the BRICS-led <a href="http://ndb.int/">New Development Bank</a>, headquartered in Shanghai, and the contingent <a href="http://brics.itamaraty.gov.br/media2/press-releases/220-treaty-for-the-establishment-of-a-brics-contingent-reserve-arrangement-fortaleza-july-15">reserve agreement</a>, which creates a safety net for times of financial crisis. It will automatically provide liquidity for any member country facing financial distress.</p>
<p>Some had suggested that the political shift in Brazil – from the centre-left Workers’ Party to the centre-right administration of Michel Temer, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer">following the impeachment Dilma Rousseff</a> – would reduce the country’s commitment to the BRICS coalition. But Temer has spoken of the grouping in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-37667750">favourable terms</a>, and travelled to Asia twice in the first months of his mandate. </p>
<p>Putting political differences aside, the BRICS bloc is joining together to work on policy. During the recent meeting in Goa, leaders decided to move ahead with the creation of a BRICS-led <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/brics-agree-to-set-up-credit-rating-agency-3086703/">rating agency</a>, based on the notion that the existing institutions – Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch – unfairly favour Western countries and companies.</p>
<h2>Why BRICS will live on</h2>
<p>There are four key aspects to keep in mind when considering the future of the BRICS coalition.</p>
<p>First, while lower growth in China currently dominates headlines, it would be a mistake to believe that the global shift to emerging powers was temporary. As Jim O'Neill, who coined the term BRIC back in 2001 (South Africa was added in 2010), recently <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/enduring-importance-of-brics-by-jim-o-neill-2016-10">pointed out</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The suggestion that the BRICS’ importance was overstated is simply naïve. The size of the original four BRICs economies, taken together, is roughly consistent with the projections I made all those years ago.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Second, the BRICS grouping is producing significant benefits for its members by creating an important platform for policymakers. In areas such as urban planning, anti-terrorism measures, water management, coordination of policy positions and higher education, the countries face common challenges – but previously had few channels of communication with each other. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142044/original/image-20161017-12440-fph5hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jim O'Neill is confident that his projection for the countries still holds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/Doc/RTR/Media/TR3/d/d/2/d/RTSP3FX.jpg">Pilar Olivares/Reuters</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, experts can regularly consult each other via <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2016/09/04/brics-leader-hangzhou/88">working groups</a>, and the New Development Bank helps coordinate debates about <a href="http://www.postwesternworld.com/2015/07/25/grouping-launches-development/">best practices in development</a>.</p>
<p>The group can also be seen as the first step to connect previously distant countries. While in decades past, the BRICS countries rarely coordinated their actions in multilateral fora, such as the United Nations or the International Monetary Fund, they now regularly discuss each positions prior to voting. </p>
<p>Considering how limited relations between, say, Brazil and India have been historically, the significance of such coordinated action should not be overlooked.</p>
<p>Third, Western international leadership is so deeply rooted and ubiquitous that people think of it as somehow natural. And this limits citizens’ capacity to objectively assess the consequences of its decline. The fact is, in the future, non-Western powers will continue to take on greater responsibilities – and they’ll do so without their Western peers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-is-china-investing-in-africa-evidence-from-the-firm-level/">Chinese investment in Africa</a> and Latin America, <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/world/pakistan-very-concerned-at-india-s-military-modernisation/story-JOrnmwTnk8B6CJ3vfrGhnJ.html">India’s growing military capacity</a> and Brazil’s attempt to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/world/middleeast/17iran.html?_r=0">negotiate an Iran nuclear deal</a> under former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are all examples of this new multipolar reality.</p>
<p>The BRICS bloc did not emerge because China, India and others sought to overthrow existing order. On the contrary, they are firmly committed to institutions such as the UN. But there is a strong feeling in Beijing, Delhi and Brasília that existing institutions have failed to adapt to a new global context and have been unwilling to provide emerging actors with greater space and power. </p>
<p>For instance, despite years of promises about making the leadership selection process of international institutions more meritocratic, the head of the World Bank remains an American citizen, and the IMF is still lead by a European.</p>
<p>The differences and disagreements between the BRICS countries are real. Brazil, India and South Africa are democracies, while China and Russia have authoritarian leaders. Brazil and Russia export commodities, while China imports them. Brazil and India would like to join the UN Security Council as permanent members, but China and Russia are reluctant to support them. </p>
<h2>Surmountable obstacles</h2>
<p>But it would be naïve to believe that these differences preclude meaningful cooperation. Consider Europe: Italian policymakers oppose Germany’s ambitions to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but both countries still cooperate on a range of issues. And Turkey was a key NATO member even when it was non-democratic. </p>
<p>Indeed, tensions between BRICS members can even enhance the value of yearly summits, which provides a platform for problem-solving. </p>
<p>As one Russian government advisor privately pointed out before the Goa meeting:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If ten years from now the only thing the BRICS Summits have achieved is to reduce the risk of future conflict between India and China, it will have been a great success.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For Brazil and South Africa, the summits provide unique access to leading policymakers and bureaucrats in Moscow, Delhi and Beijing, which has the potential for ample benefits in the coming years as power continues to shift towards Asia.</p>
<p>All of this is to say that the BRICS coalition is here to stay. The transition to genuine multipolarity - of developing nations collaborating to have not just global economic impact but also military and agenda-setting capacity - will be disconcerting to Western powers. </p>
<p>But a world with BRICS leadership may, in the end, be more democratic than any previous world order. Allowing greater levels of genuine dialogue and a broader spread of knowledge, this will help us find more innovative and effective ways to address global challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Stuenkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite financial crises and political differences among these five emerging economies, the BRICS coalition is here to stay. And it may just change the world.Oliver Stuenkel, Assistant Professor of International Relations, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/636202016-08-06T09:21:50Z2016-08-06T09:21:50ZRio’s green Olympic Games get underway with low-budget, high-spirited opening ceremony<p>That the opening ceremony of the 2016 Olympic Games went without a hitch would have been a good enough result for many. There had been real fears that the ceremony would be overshadowed by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/rio-2016-olympic-protesters-tear-gas-police-brazil-a7175271.html">political protests</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4438690/rio-2016-olympics-terrorism-security/">security threats</a> or <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/athletics/rio-olympics-branded-worst-ever-8543702">crumbling infrastructure</a>. But against the odds, Rio managed to put on a creative, passionate performance, at just <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2016/08/05/olympics-opening-ceremony-for-rio-2016-live/">a tenth of the cost</a> of the London 2012 extravaganza. </p>
<p>In 2009, when Brazil was confirmed as host of the 2016 Summer Olympics, it was only just beginning to yield soft power; gaining favour on the international stage, based more on its attractions and persuasive abilities than on military interventions and sanctions (hard power). Within three years, Monocle magazine <a href="https://monocle.com/monocolumn/business/the-sun-s-shining-on-brand-brazil/">declared that</a> “the sun is shining on brand Brazil”. </p>
<p>But today, the picture is quite different: Brazil is in the grips of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-brazil-go-from-rising-bric-to-sinking-ship-57029">its worst recession</a> in 25 years, the elected president Dilma Rousseff has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-dilma-rousseff-impeached-brazil-is-set-for-years-of-political-turmoil-57689">removed from power</a> by way of an ongoing impeachment process which has divided the nation and the international media’s <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/02/nbc-defends-the-rio-olympics-shit-show.html">criticisms of Olympic preparations</a> have been relentless. </p>
<h2>Damage limitation</h2>
<p>With a tight budget and a notable absence of visiting heads of state, there were doubts as to whether Rio could gain the positive international exposure, and the domestic feel-good moment, that the opening ceremonies in Beijing and London brought to their host countries. As it turns out, those doubts were unfounded. </p>
<p>The programme was choreographed to leave no space for Olympic sceptics and anti-government supporters in the audience, or on stage, to make their feelings known. Brazil’s incredibly vainglorious national anthem was rendered politically neutral, by being played on acoustic guitar and sung by the much-loved and sweet-sounding samba composer Paulinho da Viola. </p>
<p>The increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-shoots-for-olympian-heights-at-a-time-of-political-lows-62862">unpopular interim president Michel Temer</a> hardly appeared on screen and spoke only for a matter of seconds to declare the ceremony open. He elicited fewer boos from the crowd than ousted president Rousseff had to bear at the opening of the World Cup in 2014.</p>
<h2>The green games</h2>
<p>The show itself began with a relatively politically inoffensive romp through Brazilian history, with eye-catching choreography and visual effects in keeping with the “creativity on a shoe-string” narrative touted by the organisers. There were a few sparkling musical interludes: the iconic international hit <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJkxFhFRFDA">The Girl from Ipanema</a> was performed by the composer Tom Jobim’s grandson, and acted out by supermodel Gisele Bündchen. </p>
<p>The more prosaic Brazilian funk hit <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5FO0buG_eo">Eu Só Quero Ser Feliz</a> (I just want to be happy), ushered in the always tedious team parade – but not before the Olympic hosts shared a few home truths with the world. </p>
<p>Despite the relentless criticism of Rio’s failure to clean up the notoriously filthy Guanabara Bay, and despite the admittedly under-reported <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/nov/25/brazils-mining-tragedy-dam-preventable-disaster-samarco-vale-bhp-billiton">environmental disaster</a> of epic proportion that took place in the mining region of Mariana only nine months ago, the organisers pulled off a coup of their own, by using the ceremony – and, by extension, the games themselves – to rebrand Brazil as green. </p>
<p>In a sudden change in tempo and mood, the dangers of global warming were depicted in images and numbers. It was a powerful illustration, not only of the impacts of climate change and the urgent need to do something about it, but also of Brazil’s determination to contribute to debates of international significance. </p>
<p>From the athletes planting seeds that will later be used to build a large park in Rio’s suburbs, to the deliberately low key and environmentally friendly (but still visually stunning) Olympic flame and cauldron, the ceremony was incomparably more convincing in its sustainability message than the earnest, or even cringe-worthy, opening ceremony of the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo.</p>
<h2>No Pelé?</h2>
<p>Many hearts will have sunk when Pelé pulled out hours before the ceremony started due to ill health. Although “the King” never competed in any Olympic Games, the IOC named him <a href="http://www.worldathletes.com/sports_biographies/Pele.htm">Athlete of the Century</a> in 1999. And given that he’s also still the most recognised Brazilian on earth, he’s one of the country’s key soft-power assets. </p>
<p>But in a surprise and incredibly moving twist, the cauldron was lit by Brazilian Olympic unsung hero <a href="http://qz.com/752356/the-inspiring-reason-olympic-marathoner-vanderlei-cordeiro-de-lima-lit-the-olympic-cauldron/">Vanderlei Cordeiro de Lima</a>. Marathon runner Vanderlei was attacked by a deranged spectator at the Athens Olympics in 2004, dropping from first place to finish with the bronze medal. His gracious sportsmanship in freak defeat was acknowledged at the time by the IOC, and again last night, in what was a particularly poignant moment of the ceremony.</p>
<p>And just as we thought that was our lot in this modest but effective ceremony, out come the samba schools (drummers and dancers). Off went the fireworks, as Brazil confirmed once again that it knows how to throw a good party – even on a shoestring budget, in times of adversity. Now, the nation must convince the international press to portray the passion, creativity and meaningful political commentary of the ceremony, rather than rehashing old – if painfully true – tales of woe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Dennison receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) as Primary Investigator of the international research network Soft Power, Cinema and the BRICS.</span></em></p>Against the odds, Rio scores soft-power points with memorable show at Maracanã stadium.Stephanie Dennison, Professor in Brazilian Studies, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/628622016-08-01T13:17:48Z2016-08-01T13:17:48ZBrazil shoots for Olympian heights at a time of political lows<p>Brazil is preparing for the opening ceremony of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/rio-olympics-2016">Olympic Games</a> in Rio de Janeiro’s Maracanã Stadium. The three-hour ceremony will present Brazil to hundreds of millions of viewers around the world, using music and dance to show how a mix of people contributed to the country’s rich and syncretic culture. It promises to be a remarkable spectacle, as do the games themselves – but the whole thing seems doomed to be overshadowed by the most protracted and bitter political conflict in Brazil’s recent history.</p>
<p>The games will be opened by Brazil’s sombre interim president, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36070366">Michel Temer</a>, who came to power in May after the Senate voted to accept a charge of “creative” federal budgeting against President Dilma Rousseff, and to begin her impeachment trial. </p>
<p>Temer is unlikely to ever fully overcome the controversy surrounding his ascent to power; <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-idUSKCN0YL1SB">leaked recordings</a> of conversations with one of his ministers suggested that the impeachment proceedings were motivated in part by a desire to curtail a major anti-corruption investigation, known as Operation Car Wash, which started in 2014 and which has ensnared a slew of senior politicians. </p>
<p>Temer stands accused of betrayal by two former allies: on the one hand Rousseff, his former running mate and the now suspended president, who is enduring an impeachment trial in the Senate; and on the other, the former president of the lower house of Congress, Eduardo Cunha, who initiated the impeachment proceedings against Rousseff and who has been formally charged with corruption. </p>
<p>The upshot is a conservative restoration after almost 14 years of rule by the left-wing Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, or PT). Temer’s professed mission is to preside over a government of “national salvation” after two consecutive years of recession by reducing the budget deficit and reviving investor and consumer confidence. And unlike Rousseff, he has a working majority in Congress to help him. </p>
<p>A decisive change of course seems to be in the offing. While reversing the recession is Temer’s immediate goal, he and his coalition allies are also committed to thoroughly liberalising the economy. On foreign policy, he has signalled a turn away from the PT’s south-south priorities (including <a href="http://brics.itamaraty.gov.br/">BRICS summitry</a>) in favour of renewed bilateral ties with the likes of Argentina (itself now led by a <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21701531-new-president-puts-his-predecessor-her-place-erasing-kirchner-cult">centre-right government</a>), the US, Europe, and China.</p>
<p>Rousseff’s supporters, meanwhile, hope that by some miracle she can survive the impeachment vote in the Senate, which will probably occur between August 29 and September 8. Rousseff herself has said that if she does, she’ll seek to call a new presidential election. But she’s unlikely to get the chance, and it’s far more likely that Temer will become full president by the end of this year. That would give him a mandate until the end of December 2018.</p>
<h2>New lows</h2>
<p>Rousseff’s last three years in office were politically and economically disastrous. She failed to build and maintain a majority in Congress, and did not do enough to reign in government spending; her attempts to reduce the deficit in 2015 were <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/04/economic-backgrounder">too little, too late</a>. Her government’s ramshackle interventions tarnished the image of the heterodox macroeconomics that have succeeded elsewhere, and set the stage for Temer’s neoliberal backlash. </p>
<p>Rousseff’s mismanagement has sullied the legacy of her predecessor and patron <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10841416">Luíz Inácio “Lula” da Silva</a>, president from 2003 to 2010, who managed to combine <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/17147828">robust economic growth</a> with social inclusion. And to make things worse, she spent seven years as president of the administrative council of the state oil company <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/6e8b0e28-f728-11e5-803c-d27c7117d132">Petrobras</a>, which is now at the heart of the corruption saga.</p>
<p>For many of those opposed to Rousseff’s impeachment, her removal was a “coup” similar to the one that installed a dictatorship in 1964, albeit with Congress and the mainstream media taking the place of the military. This is a rather misguided way of viewing the affair, and detracts from the strong argument that the budgetary manoeuvres of which Rousseff is accused do not justify impeachment. Nonetheless, the conditions that led to the impeachment are partly of the PT’s own making. </p>
<p>Since 2003, the party has played the complicated game of coalition-building that any Brazilian government must take part in to survive. In doing so, it joined forces with a number of conservative partners, and none more important than Temer’s party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB). Temer himself became Rousseff’s running mate. </p>
<p>His usurping of Rousseff looks like a parliamentary hijacking of a presidency, but the impeachment followed constitutional procedure and to call it a “coup” removes the distinction between a change of government within the confines of democratic institutions and the removal of an elected president by force of arms, as happened in 1964.</p>
<p>And yet, however institutionally “legitimate” the defenestration of Rousseff may have been, the conflict around it shows just how troubled Brazilian politics now is.</p>
<h2>Splitting apart</h2>
<p>Brazil’s politics is dramatically more polarised than it was, and its institutions are struggling. The presidency has been weakened; Temer isn’t much more popular than Rousseff, and generally avoids appearing in public. The Supreme Court looks increasingly arbitrary and partial. The political stability and broad policy consensus that held from 1995-2012 seem to have evaporated. </p>
<p>There’s also widespread scepticism about the electoral process. The Petrobras corruption scandal has tarnished all politicians and political parties, and in 2014, most members of the lower house of Congress were elected with contributions from ten major companies – many of which have since been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/18/brazilian-supreme-court-bans-corporate-donations-political-candidates-parties">caught up in Operation Car Wash</a>.</p>
<p>It is unclear who will benefit most from the municipal elections set for October. These will be the first elections covered by the new <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d13f4042158e4c7ba5718194d4866eb9/brazils-top-court-bans-corporate-political-financing">ban on corporate donations to campaigns</a>. Even though Rousseff will probably not return to the presidency, the PT has allowed its candidates to ally with candidates from the PMDB, perpetrators of the alleged “coup”.</p>
<p>But once the municipal elections are over, political attention will turn to the elections of 2018, including those for the presidency. And at present, it’s extremely difficult to foresee what might happen. </p>
<p>Hobbled by the recession, the corruption scandals, and the impeachment, the PT seems to be losing its grip on the left. Lula still has his supporters, but now he has been <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/brazil-president-lula-charged-corruption-probe-160729202506607.html">charged with obstruction of justice</a> as part of the Petrobras investigation, and may not be allowed to run for his <a href="http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/173438/lula-%E2%80%98will-run-for-brazilian-presidency%E2%80%99-in-2018">long-mooted third term</a>. And even if he’s eligible, it’s hard to see him winning over a majority of the electorate again. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, a reinvigorated conservative movement led by Congress’s religious, agribusiness, and law and order lobbies may yet produce some Donald Trump-like, authoritarian-nationalist candidates. A possible one is <a href="http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/jair-bolsonaro-pro-torture-anti-gay-and-brazils-future-president">Jair Bolsonaro</a>, a Rio-based congressman and former army captain noted for his reactionary views on gay rights and human rights in general.</p>
<p>So for now, Brazil can busy itself with pulling off an exuberant and secure Olympics. But once the games are over, the municipal elections will be in full swing, and Brazilians will get back to the task at hand: the battle to shape the future of their country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62862/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pereira has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). He is a member of the Council of the Brazilian Chamber of Commerce for Great Britain. </span></em></p>The Olympics provide Brazilians with a welcome distraction from their country’s fraught and bitter politics.Anthony Pereira, Director, King's Brazil Institute, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/593622016-05-15T21:00:42Z2016-05-15T21:00:42ZIs Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment a coup or Brazil’s window of opportunity?<p>“Brazil’s young democracy is being subjected to a coup,” <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/31afb096-17e2-11e6-b8d5-4c1fcdbe169f.html">said Dilma Rousseff</a> after the Senate on May 12 voted 55 to 22 to remove her as president and move forward with impeachment. </p>
<p>Is this really a coup, as Rousseff and her supporters believe? Coups usually entail the violent overthrow of a government or a trampling of constitutional rules and procedures. In Brazil, there has been no involvement by the military other than to keep the peace. </p>
<p>And the major players in this real-life Brazilian telenovela – Congress, the judiciary, the federal police and the <a href="http://portal.tcu.gov.br/english/home.htm">Federal Accounting Office</a> (TCU) – are all playing by the constitutional rules. This is testimony to strong institutions in Brazil and a victory for checks and balances. </p>
<p>Far from being a coup, the current tumult, I believe, offers a chance for Brazil, with the right leadership, to return to the policies initiated in the mid-1990s that put the country on a virtuous trajectory of rising growth and falling inequality. The middle class expanded dramatically and the political system became more transparent.</p>
<p>Such policies first and foremost conform to monetary and fiscal orthodoxy but also promote social inclusion through programs such as the <a href="http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:21447054%7EpagePK:64257043%7EpiPK:437376%7EtheSitePK:4607,00.html">one that pays mothers</a> to keep their children in school. </p>
<p>I call this economic model “fiscally sound social inclusion,” and it’s a topic my coauthors and I explore in our <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10745.html">forthcoming book</a>, “Brazil in Transition: Beliefs, Leadership and Institutional Change.” Such policies helped make Brazil one of the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-07-21/brics-summit-a-show-of-economic-might-is-nothing-to-fear">world’s largest and fastest-growing economies</a>.</p>
<p>Can Brazil’s new leader, Vice President Michel Temer, use this window of opportunity to restore economic growth and also reduce inequality under the mantle of fiscally sound social inclusion?</p>
<h2>How we got here</h2>
<p>Prior to the reelection of President Rousseff in October 2014, two decades of economic and political development <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/10/brazil-rousseff-economy-recession/">were beginning to founder</a> on the shoals of a decline in commodity prices and a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/business/international/effects-of-petrobras-scandal-leave-brazilians-lamenting-a-lost-dream.html?_r=0">corruption scandal</a> involving Petrobras, the state-owned oil company. </p>
<p>With the country’s economy in decline and the election drawing nearer, the president submitted rather rosy-looking public accounts to the TCU – basically a federal budget watchdog similar to the U.S. General Accounting Office but with the power to approve or reject them. Rousseff’s accounts suggested the government’s finances, although deteriorating, were not far off track.</p>
<p>But in a <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/41303b94-6d6f-11e5-8608-a0853fb4e1fe.html">historic ruling</a> following her narrow election victory, the TCU unanimously rejected the accounts, asserting that Rousseff understated the public deficit in the year prior to the election.</p>
<p>It is plausible, as her critics have argued, that Rousseff would not have won reelection had the voters known the true fiscal state of Brazil. </p>
<p>Although the impeachment trial technically entails prosecution for violating the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/04/21/the-real-reason-behind-the-impeachment-of-brazils-president-dilma-rousseff/#22b08bef6759">fiscal responsibility law</a>, in the eyes of the public, more is at stake, including the mismanagement of the economy and the corruption scandal at Petrobras, where Rousseff was board chair prior to her election. </p>
<h2>Markets remain optimistic</h2>
<p>Where does Brazil go from here? </p>
<p>Again, playing by the rules, former Vice President Temer, who belongs to a different party than Rousseff, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/13/brazils-new-acting-president-temer-calls-unity/84321378/">is now the interim president</a> while the impeachment prosecution proceeds. If Rousseff is impeached or resigns (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-president-dilma-rousseff-reiterates-that-she-wont-resign-1458677495">never, she claims</a>), Temer’s position will become permanent, and he will serve out her term, which expires in 2018. </p>
<p>Impeachments (and certainly coups) generally send economies into a tailspin. Yet, this hasn’t happened in Brazil. As the impeachment gained steam this year, the Brazilian real (the national currency) <a href="http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=BRL&to=USD">actually appreciated</a>, as did the <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/07/investing/brazil-argentina-stocks-on-fire/">stock market</a>. </p>
<p>Since the beginning of the year, the real is up by 10 percent and the <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Ebvsp+Interactive#%7B%22allowChartStacking%22:true%7D">stock market by 23 percent</a>. And even when the real was tanking in late 2015, <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/foreign-direct-investment">foreign direct investment surged</a>, a sign of confidence by outside investors in the underlying fundamentals of the economy despite the political turmoil. </p>
<p>It may also signal confidence that Temer will institute market-friendly reforms. It’s important to note that in Brazil presidents have much stronger agenda-setting powers than in the U.S. </p>
<p>Temer <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36283027">is not popular</a> in Brazil, but he is known as a “dealmaker,” one who is capable of managing a coalition in a multiparty Congress. </p>
<p>This all sounds promising, but before looking forward it is important to understand the past.</p>
<h2>From military rule to fiscally sound social inclusion</h2>
<p>From 1964 until 1985, Brazil was ruled by a military regime. </p>
<p>The military imposed order in its early years and embarked on an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1983/11/26/business/brazil-s-economic-miracle-and-its-collapse.html?pagewanted=all">ambitious top-down development plan</a> that turned Brazil into a “miracle economy” in the 1970s. However, growth began to sputter by the end of the decade, and inflation soared. </p>
<p>As growth weakened and the opposition became more vocal, the military’s oppressive reaction failed to suppress a growing populism, forcing it to pave the way for a return to democracy. </p>
<p>This helped usher in a new belief: social inclusion, which meant everything for everyone. The constitution of 1988 is one of the most detailed in the world, especially in terms of human rights. The decision-making process codified these beliefs around social inclusion as every interest group got to hang its ornament on the <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=wVOzAQAAQBAJ&pg=PA12&lpg=PA12&dq=brazil+constitution+1988+christmas+tree&source=bl&ots=mZ9nRJG74H&sig=Arc7qmatoufeG5qCiPuQ4JmqiS0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjumYTB9NfMAhVF_IMKHRc6B1oQ6AEIIDAA#v=onepage&q=brazil%20constitution%201988%20christmas%20tree&f=false">“Christmas tree” constitution</a>. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this didn’t work so well for the economy. From 1986 through 1993, governments spent generously on wasteful pork barrel projects, financed by printing money, leading to <a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/brazilinfl.htm">hyperinflation in the thousands of percent</a>. Social inclusion was great in principle but bad in practice. </p>
<p>Several stabilization plans aimed at reining in inflation dramatically failed, and Brazil’s first democratically elected president since military rule, Fernando Collor, <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/1992-12-30/news/mn-2585_1_vice-president">resigned during an impeachment trial</a> in 1992.</p>
<p>This marked a turning point for Brazil and its economy after Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a self-exiled socialist during the military regime, was appointed finance minister by Collor’s replacement. </p>
<p>Cardoso and his team swiftly tamed inflation and instilled confidence, especially among businesses. This helped him win reelection, following which he passed the cornerstone of fiscally sound social inclusion: the <a href="http://www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/pe/BudgetLaws/BRLRFEnglish.pdf">fiscal responsibility law</a>, aimed at ensuring that state governments could no longer spend more than their budgets allowed. </p>
<p>At the same time, Cardoso never abandoned the concept of social inclusion. Rather he merged it with his orthodox fiscal and monetary policies, such as keeping inflation in check, reforming pensions and controlling the budget. This led to <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10745.html">modest economic growth</a> and a growing middle class. </p>
<p>Yet his party lost the 2002 election to the charismatic <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/17147828">Lula da Silva</a>, who campaigned on a platform of largesse for the lower class and workers in general. Fortunately, high commodity prices helped da Silva run successive fiscal surpluses during his two terms, even as he expanded programs for the poor started by Cardoso. In other words, he continued and solidified a policy of fiscally sound social inclusion. </p>
<p>It was on da Silva’s crest of popularity and economic growth that Rousseff took the helm in 2010. But she abandoned many of his “fiscally sound” policies by increasing government expenditures and subsidies as well as expanding the role of state-run companies like Petrobras and the Brazilian Development Bank. And as commodity prices plunged, the economy fell with them, eventually exposing the holes in the government’s finances.</p>
<h2>The traits of a leader</h2>
<p>So the question now is will (and can) Temer restore those socially inclusive yet fiscally sound policies that put Brazil on course to becoming a truly developed country? </p>
<p>So far, foreign and domestic investors <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-signal-approval-of-brazil-leadership-change-1463059352">have reacted favorably</a>. But Temer faces a difficult task in resurrecting trust amongst the population and investors. Meanwhile he also faces <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/05/brazil-vice-president-michel-temer-impeachment-dilma-rousseff">his own allegations of corruption</a>.</p>
<p>To me, whether he can successfully navigate the ongoing bumps in the road and stay the course of reform or not depends on whether he has the necessary attributes of a leader to rise to the occasion. </p>
<p>In “Brazil in Transition,” my coauthors and I pose three questions to help us assess whether a leader such as Temer has what it takes: does he know what policies are needed to recover from the shock? Can he coordinate a coalition that includes economic and political actors as well as citizens to embrace those policies? And is he trusted and does he possess moral authority? </p>
<p>To this, I add two more: can he adapt to unforeseen bumps to stay the course? Does Temer (including his policy team) possess imagination to see solutions that were not on the table? </p>
<p>Temer has recognized the heart of Brazil’s dilemma: policies need to be fiscally sound. This means <a href="https://nacla.org/news/2016/02/08/argentina%E2%80%99s-painful-return-%22economic-orthodoxy%22-0">accepting some austerity</a>, as Argentina recently did. On this score <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-new-government-to-name-henrique-meirelles-as-finance-minister-1463072579">he wins points</a> for naming Henrique Meirelles, a well-respected former head of the central bank and a Wall Street veteran, as finance minister. </p>
<p>Can Temer coordinate among Congress and other powerful players in Brazil, such as industry and unions, and convince them to play ball? Being known as “the dealmaker” means he should be able to “coordinate and adapt” as opportunities arise. Temer was also trained as a constitutional lawyer, which means he knows well both the law and rules of the game in Congress. </p>
<p>However, he lacks the moral authority of both Cardoso, who was a vocal critic of the military regime, and da Silva, who with a fourth-grade education rose to the presidency as a strident union leader. But leaders can build moral authority; they need not come to the job with it in hand. (Not everyone can be a Nelson Mandela.)</p>
<p>Finally, does Temer have the “imagination” to come up with extraordinary ideas capable of breaking through the gridlock and bringing about reform? In his first hours in office, he demonstrated imagination by cutting his cabinet by a third, to 22 from 31, and, controversially, he <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/shannonsims/2016/05/12/brazils-new-president-michel-temer-fills-cabinet-with-only-men/#111241c440c6">picked only white men</a>. This move could backfire, but it at least shows he’s willing to take risks and is not afraid of some controversy.</p>
<p>So does this suggest he has the “right stuff” to seize the window of opportunity of a new government and return Brazil to its virtuous trajectory? </p>
<p>His early moves may please markets, but to satisfy Brazil’s diverse citizenry, he will need to demonstrate that he is not abandoning social inclusion. On this as well as his own fate in the ongoing corruption scandals: the jury is still out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The larger book project upon which some of this article is based got off the ground thanks to the Rockefeller Foundation hosting the authors as residents in Bellagio. They received valuable comments provided by the anonymous reviewers for Princeton University Press and from a book conference at Northwestern University, funded by President Schapiro at Northwestern University and Princeton University Press.</span></em></p>Whatever you call it, the new leader, Michel Temer, has an opportunity to return Brazil to policies that promote growth through fiscally sound social inclusion. Can he do it?Lee Alston, Professor of Economics, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.