tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/michigan-13508/articlesMichigan – The Conversation2024-03-05T14:01:43Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235212024-03-05T14:01:43Z2024-03-05T14:01:43ZMichigan Gov. Whitmer proposes a caregiver tax credit − an idea many Americans support<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578799/original/file-20240229-24-loeyq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C2302%2C1285&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As the population of older adults in the U.S. grows, more people need care.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/comforting-hand-on-shoulder-of-man-royalty-free-image/1576851402?phrase=elderly&adppopup=true">seb_ra/via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People caring for elderly or disabled relatives need a break – and, in Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has a proposal to give them one.</p>
<p>Whitmer’s <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/whitmer-seeks-5000-tax-credit-michigan-caregivers-how-much-will-it-help">recently proposed US$5,000 tax credit</a>, the Caring for MI Family Tax Credit, is part of a growing trend of public subsidies for families shouldering the responsibilities of caring for family members. </p>
<p>Americans strongly endorse the idea that families, not the government or other organizations, are responsible for providing care for family members. They especially endorse <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/09/14/family-responsibilities/">adult children</a> providing care for their aging parents. </p>
<p>That may help explain why family members are the main and sometimes only <a href="https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Paid-Leave-for-Caregiving.pdf">caregivers for older adults</a> and others with <a href="https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/home-care/info-2023/caregiving-for-your-adult-disabled-child.html">long-term care needs</a> in the United States.</p>
<p>We are researchers who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ytD3n0IAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">families</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ruC6veMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">caregiving</a>. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231231225574">recent study</a> finds that when given a choice between family, government or other care providers, many Americans think family should provide care but the government should pay for it.</p>
<p>Caregiving costs can be substantial. On average, a caregiver in Michigan can expect to spend over <a href="https://states.aarp.org/michigan/supporting-family-caregivers-in-michigan">$7,000 out of pocket</a> per year. One study estimates the cost of care for a person with dementia are even higher, ranging <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1525-1497.2001.10123.x">from $3,000 to $17,000</a>, depending on the severity of the disease. Another estimate that accounts for the total impact of caregiving, including costs such as lost wages and the impact on caregiver’s health, puts the personal expense of caring for a loved one at roughly <a href="https://ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/a-comprehensive-measure-of-the-costs-of-caring-for-a-parent-differences-according-to-functional-status/">$90,000 a year</a>. </p>
<p>Despite this steep price, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2F1468-0009.12567">few federal governmental programs</a> address caregivers’ financial burdens. </p>
<p>In response, states have begun to pass their own policies, like <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/labor-and-employment/state-family-and-medical-leave-laws">paid leave</a> in states such as California, Washington and Massachusetts, and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/are-tax-credits-best-way-subsidize-long-term-care-costs">tax credit policies</a> like Whitmer’s proposal in Michigan.</p>
<h2>Helping to offset, reduce costs</h2>
<p>Currently, <a href="https://ltsschoices.aarp.org/scorecard-report/2023/dimensions-and-indicators/state-caregiver-tax-credits#:%7E:text=Six%20states%20(Georgia%2C%20Missouri%2C,one%20activity%20of%20daily%20living.">six states</a> – Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina and New Jersey – offer a tax credit to offset <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08959420.2022.2127599">the costs of caregiving</a>. </p>
<p>The credit can be used to cover home modifications such as ramps or bathroom grab bars, assistive devices such as a cane or walker, or to pay a professional care worker.</p>
<p>Whitmer’s proposal is generous compared with other states. For example, <a href="https://support.taxslayer.com/hc/en-us/articles/360015705352-Georgia-Qualified-Caregiving-Expense-Credit">Georgia’s caregiving tax credit</a> reimburses up to 10% of costs, with a cap of $150.</p>
<h2>A needed break</h2>
<p>The proposed Michigan tax credit would support counseling, transportation and nursing or respite services that pay a caregiver to come help so the family caregiver can have a break.</p>
<p>These types of services <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/s1041610218000686">delay transitions into nursing homes</a>, which helps <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igz040">keep costs down for Medicaid</a> and individual <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jamda.2023.09.010">monthly out-of-pocket spending</a>.</p>
<p>Respite care use has become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnx093">more common over the past two decades</a>, especially among families providing care for older adults with dementia. However, many caregivers are unable to access these services. One barrier is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnz095">the cost</a>, which averages <a href="https://www.genworth.com/aging-and-you/finances/cost-of-care.html/">$29 per hour</a>. </p>
<h2>Public support for caregivers increasing</h2>
<p>Recent polls show that a majority of Americans want Medicare, the federal program that provides health care to people over 65, to help cover <a href="https://www.longtermcarepoll.org/visualizing-support-for-greater-government-role-in-health-care-for-older-adults/">the cost of long-term care</a>. </p>
<p>In terms of what supports should be made available to caregivers, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027501233004">tax credits</a> receive the greatest public support relative to other programs, such as unpaid time off. </p>
<p>A recent AARP study of registered voters ages 50 and older found 8 in 10 people support a $5,000 annual <a href="https://www.aarp.org/research/topics/care/info-2021/caregiving-tax-credit-in-home-care-bipartisan-support.html">caregiver tax credit</a>. Another study of voters of all ages found similar support for expanding the <a href="https://economicsecurityproject.org/resource/polls-support-for-eitc-with-automatic-filing-caregiver-credit/">earned income tax credit</a> to include family caregivers.</p>
<p>Evidence suggests that tax credits implemented in Arizona and Idaho in a three-year test of the program in the early 1980s had the desired effect – <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4195118/">more care by family members</a> and a reduced use of formal care. Paid leave in California is also associated with a reduction in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22038">nursing home usage</a>. </p>
<p>The benefit of the Caring for MI Family Tax Credit will depend in large part on the details and design of the policy. A refundable tax credit will provide greatest benefit to low-income households.</p>
<p>A similar federal bill, the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3321">Credit for Caring Act</a>, has been introduced in Congress. If passed, the legislation would provide a federal tax credit for working family caregivers to cover 30% of expenses incurred above $2,000. </p>
<p>And other <a href="https://www.ftb.ca.gov/tax-pros/law/legislation/2019-2020/AB2136-021020.pdf">states such as California</a> are also considering introducing tax credits to help offset the cost of caregiving. </p>
<p>The population of <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/by-2030-all-baby-boomers-will-be-age-65-or-older.html">Americans over 65 is increasing</a>, <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/most-older-adults-are-likely-need-use-long-term-services-supports-issue-brief-0">meaning more people</a> will need caregiving in the near future.</p>
<p>The introduction of these bills reflects Americans’ growing support for new solutions to defray the costs associated with providing care to a loved one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223521/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah E. Patterson receives funding from the National Institute on Aging (NIA). She volunteers with the Alzheimer's Association in Michigan. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ariana Reyes receives funding from the National Institute on Aging (NIA). </span></em></p>Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s proposed tax credit is part of a trend toward public support for family caregiving.Sarah E. Patterson, Research Investigator at the Survey Research Center at the Institute of Social Research, University of MichiganAdriana Reyes, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Cornell UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233072024-03-01T13:36:06Z2024-03-01T13:36:06ZRemembering the 1932 Ford Hunger March: Detroit park honors labor and environmental history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579009/original/file-20240229-25-snzdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Dearborn policeman knocked unconscious was the first casualty of the 1932 Ford Hunger March in Detroit and Dearborn.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wayne.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/vmc/id/35955/rec/1">Walter P. Reuther Library, Archives of Labor and Urban Affairs, Wayne State University/Detroit News Burckhardt.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The intersection of Fort Street and Oakwood Boulevard in southwest Detroit today functions mostly as a thoroughfare for trucks and commuters. </p>
<p>However, as you sit idling at the stoplight waiting to cross the bridge over the Rouge River, you might glance to the side and see something unexpected in this heavily industrialized area: A sculpture of weathered steel reaches toward the sky alongside a spray of flowers and waves of grasses and people fishing. </p>
<p>This inconspicuous corner, now the home of the <a href="https://www.motorcities.org/fortstreet">Fort Street Bridge Park</a>, has several stories to tell: of a river, a region, a historic conflict and an ongoing struggle. </p>
<p>If you pull over, you’ll enter a place that attempts to pull together threads of history, environment and sustainable redevelopment.</p>
<p>Signs explain why this sculpture and park are here: to honor the memory of <a href="https://www.zinnedproject.org/news/tdih/hunger-march-ford/">protesters who met on this very spot on March 7, 1932</a>, before marching up Miller Road to the massive Ford Rouge River Complex located in the adjacent city of Dearborn. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=K9xPsDgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociology professor</a>, I have a strong interest in how the history of labor and industrial pollution have influenced Detroit. </p>
<p>I’m also interested in the potential for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-018-0765-7">environmental restoration</a> or “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.05.002">green reparations</a>” to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.05.002">offer a new way forward</a>.</p>
<p>To understand this potential future, we must first recognize and honor the past.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An iron sculpture commemorates industry and sits as the centerpiece of the Ford Street Bridge Park." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Fort Street Bridge Park is located along the banks of the Rouge River in southwest Detroit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Draus</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>14 demands</h2>
<p>In their book “<a href="https://www.ueunion.org/labors-untold-story#:%7E:text=Extensively%20researched%2C%20yet%20highly%20readable,conflict%20from%20the%20workers'%20perspective.">Labor’s Untold Story</a>,” published in 1955, journalist Richard Boyer and historian Herbert Morais quote a contemporary account of the Hunger March: </p>
<p><em>It was early, it was cold when the first of the unemployed Ford workers (many of whom had been laid off the day before) arrived at Baby Creek Bridge. They were a small gray group and they stood slapping their sides, warding off the cold, and wondering if they alone would come.</em></p>
<p>Others soon joined them: Black and white, men and women, immigrants and American-born. They united to deliver a list of 14 demands to the auto tycoon <a href="https://corporate.ford.com/articles/history/henry-ford-biography.html">Henry Ford</a>, whose US$5 daily wage for his workers was once considered revolutionary. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Police with bats follow Hunger March marchers on March 7, 1932." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hunger March protesters demanded better pay and working conditions at the Ford Rouge plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wayne.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/vmc/id/37798/rec/1">Detroit News Staff via Walter P. Reuther Library, Archives of Labor and Urban Affairs, Wayne State University.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among the marchers’ demands: jobs for laid-off workers, a seven-hour workday without a pay reduction, two 15-minute rest periods a day, an end to discrimination against Black workers and the right to organize. </p>
<p>This crowd of several thousand marched up the road on one of the coldest days of winter. They were greeted at the Dearborn border with clouds of tear gas, jets of cold water and a shower of bullets. </p>
<p>It was then that the Ford Hunger March became the Ford Massacre. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HFEskpjPbfE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Detroit Workers News Special 1932: Ford Massacre via Workers Film & Photo League International.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The seeds of a labor movement</h2>
<p>Beth Tompkins Bates, in her book “<a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469613857/the-making-of-black-detroit-in-the-age-of-henry-ford/">The Making of Black Detroit in the Age of Henry Ford</a>,” wrote that “The response of the Ford Motor Company on that day shot holes in the myth that Ford cared about his workers, that he was different from other businessmen.” </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Black and white portrait of a young man with wavy hair" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Portrait of Joe Bussell, killed by Ford Servicemen during the 1932 Ford Hunger March in Detroit. Bussell’s relatives contributed to the Fort Street Bridge Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reuther.wayne.edu/node/7269">Walter P. Reuther Library</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the end of the day, four marchers lay dead, while many others were injured and hospitalized. A fifth would die months later of his wounds. </p>
<p>More than 30,000 people showed up for the dead marchers’ funerals. The violent reactions of Ford security and Dearborn police during the march were widely condemned. </p>
<p>In an effort to address the stain on its public image, the Ford family first commissioned then expanded a major work by <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/detroit-industry-murals-detroit-institute-of-arts.htm">Mexican muralist Diego Rivera</a> that was to become the centerpiece of the Detroit Institute of Arts, known as the Detroit Industry Mural. Rivera, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0018246X0800678X">a known communist</a>, depicted both ruthless efficiency and the racialized inequality of the industrial process. </p>
<p>Ford’s battle against unions was ultimately a failure. Five years after the Hunger March, the so-called “<a href="https://reuther.wayne.edu/ex/exhibits/battle.html">Battle of the Overpass</a>” led to the organization of the Rouge plant by the United Auto Workers. </p>
<p>The Ford Hunger March, long forgotten by many, is now <a href="https://www.workers.org/2022/03/62190/">acknowledged as an important catalyst</a> in the growth of the union movement. </p>
<h2>Struggle for sustainability and justice</h2>
<p>The fight for sustainability and environmental justice is another major theme of the park, which chronicles the history of the Rouge River, including the day in 1969 when the <a href="https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2019/10/rouge-river-fire-anniversary-great-lakes-moment/">oily water infamously caught fire</a>. </p>
<p>The hellish image of burning rivers helped motivate the signing of the <a href="https://www.boem.gov/air-quality-act-1967-or-clean-air-act-caa">Clean Air</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-clean-water-act">Clean Water acts</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/history">the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency</a>. </p>
<p>The air and water in and around Detroit are <a href="https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2023/05/once-beset-industrial-pollution-rouge-river-slow-path-recovery/">much cleaner today</a> than they were 1969. But this doesn’t change the fact that the area where the park sits bears a disproportionate burden of the pollution generated by the region’s industrial production, which includes cement plants, gypsum and aggregates processors, salt mining and asphalt storage, as well as a steel mill and petroleum refinery.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.marathonpetroleum.com/content/documents/Citizenship/2018/Sustainability_Report_10_21.pdf">donor to the park</a> is Marathon Petroleum Corporation whose Detroit Refinery occupies the adjoining neighborhood. Though Marathon has invested in the development of green spaces on its own property, the refinery has also expanded in recent years, <a href="https://wdi-publishing.com/product/marathon-petroleum-and-southwest-detroit-the-intersection-of-community-and-environment/">further degrading the local environment</a>.</p>
<p>Research shows that workers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2021.101502">benefit from unionization</a> in myriad ways, not only directly but indirectly. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-historic-hollywood-and-uaw-strikes-arent-labors-whole-story-the-total-number-of-americans-walking-off-the-job-remained-relatively-low-219903">recent labor victories</a> by the UAW, Hollywood writers and other organizers stand in stark contrast to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-10-us-workers-belong-to-unions-a-share-thats-stabilized-after-a-steep-decline-221571">long-term erosion of union membership</a>.</p>
<p>Today, the Fort Street Bridge Park in southwest Detroit serves to remind us of the complexities of history and how apparent progress in one area may be followed by a setback somewhere else. It also represents how the spirit of community, unbroken, keeps pushing for something better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223307/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Draus is affiliated with Friends of the Rouge and Downriver Delta CDC, two nonprofit organizations involved with the Fort Street Bridge Park. He is also the facilitator of the Fort-Rouge Gateway (FRoG) Partnership, a coalition of representatives from nonprofit, community-based, academic and industry that is focused on the sustainable redevelopment of the industrial Rouge region. </span></em></p>On March 7, workers at the Ford Rouge River plant marched for better working conditions, sparking America’s labor movement. Almost a century later, a quiet park honors their memory.Paul Draus, Professor of Sociology; Director, Master of Science in Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Michigan-DearbornLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245992024-02-28T14:12:22Z2024-02-28T14:12:22ZMore than 100K Michigan voters pick ‘uncommitted’ over Biden − does that matter for November?<p>Joe Biden won the 2024 Michigan Democratic primary, but <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-election-michigan-2024-6e0b9fc18773e975fdfd23f7287ed615">“uncommitted” ran a spirited campaign</a>. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/27/us/elections/results-michigan-democratic-presidential-primary.html">100,000 Michiganders voted “uncommitted”</a> in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, 13% of the Democratic electorate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.listentomichigan.com/">Listen to Michigan</a> organized the uncommitted campaign in Michigan, promoting it as a way to express dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s public stance in support of <a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-siege-has-placed-gazans-at-risk-of-starvation-prewar-policies-made-them-vulnerable-in-the-first-place-222657">Israel’s actions in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza</a>.</p>
<p>The group also set a goal of securing more uncommitted votes than the 11,000-vote margin by which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president">Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016</a>. The total was nearly 10 times that number.</p>
<p>Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 154,181 votes.</p>
<p>While there were no exit polls conducted with Michigan primary voters, preelection polling just before the primary showed Biden’s weakness among potential <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/27/1234106750/uncommitted-voters-michigan-primary-arab-muslim-dearborn-hamtramck-detroit">young voters as well as Arab Americans</a>.</p>
<p>Michigan has the largest Arab, Muslim and Palestinian population in the United States, currently numbering <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/arab-population-by-state">more than 200,000</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-dearborn-michigan-the-first-arab-american-majority-city-in-the-us-216700">A brief history of Dearborn, Michigan – the first Arab-American majority city in the US</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>More than half of the population of Dearborn, Michigan, is Arab, as is its mayor; it is home to <a href="https://theconversation.com/islams-call-to-prayer-is-ringing-out-in-more-us-cities-affirming-a-long-and-growing-presence-of-muslims-in-america-205555">the largest mosque in the United States</a>. One of the leaders of the uncommitted movement is U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib from the 12th District, the first Palestinian American woman elected to Congress.</p>
<p>At time of publication, with 98% of precincts reporting a day after the election, <a href="https://cityofdearborn.org/documents/city-departments/city-clerk/elections/election-results/2024-election-results/8310-february-27-2024-primary-election-unofficial-results-as-of-11-30-p-m/file">vote tallies from Dearborn</a>, the city with the highest percentage of Arab American voters in the state, show “uncommitted” leading there – 6,290 votes to President Biden’s 4,517. </p>
<p>It’s not clear that all of the uncommitted voters were part of the protest. In primaries, some voters will vote uncommitted if they have not yet made their choice or don’t want to disclose that choice for any number of reasons. In 2020, 19,106 Democratic voters in Michigan <a href="https://www.wxyz.com/news/national-politics/america-votes/heres-how-many-people-voted-uncommitted-in-past-michigan-presidential-primaries">selected uncommitted, while 21,601 did so in 2016</a> – even though no protest was attached to those decisions.</p>
<p>What makes the 2024 primaries different from previous contests is that uncommitted voters are being reported in exit polls and by election officials because that designation actually appears on the ballot in some states. </p>
<p>Besides Michigan, which added uncommitted to its primary ballots in 2012, there are uncommitted lines on the ballots in New Hampshire, North Carolina and South Carolina; Florida has a “no preference” line. In Oregon and <a href="https://crosscut.com/politics/2024/02/faq-washingtons-march-12-presidential-primary">Washington</a>, citizens will be able to vote for an uncommitted delegate to the convention. </p>
<p>Selecting uncommitted is a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/michigan-democrats-organizers-urge-uncommitted-vote-feb-27-primary-2024-02-06/">way for voters to express dissatisfaction</a> with the candidates whose names appear on the ballot while still participating in the democratic act of voting. </p>
<p>In my view, this form of peaceful protest is an essential element of American democracy and more demonstrative than staying home from the polls. </p>
<p>It is not an option for the fall general election, where the only alternative to a Biden vote for Democrats will be to stay home or vote for Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Given his past <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/28/politics/text-of-trump-executive-order-nation-ban-refugees/index.html">record</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/17/trump-muslim-ban-gaza-refugees">proposals</a> to exclude Arabs from immigration to the United States, I don’t believe that will be a realistic alternative for many of Michigan’s uncommitted voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224599/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Traugott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Organizers of the protest had set a goal of 11,000 uncommitted votes to show dissatisfaction with Biden’s support of Israel in the Israel-Hamas war.Michael Traugott, Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225882024-02-27T19:40:15Z2024-02-27T19:40:15ZBetty Smith enchanted a generation of readers with ‘A Tree Grows in Brooklyn’ − even as she groused that she hoped Williamsburg would be flattened<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577625/original/file-20240223-28-ht6czh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C11%2C3691%2C2714&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Betty Smith's novel sold millions of copies in the 1940s.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/group-of-young-women-smile-as-they-crowd-around-another-who-news-photo/119076541?adppopup=true">Weegee/International Center of Photography via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eighty years ago, in the winter and spring of 1944, Brooklyn-born author <a href="https://www.ncpedia.org/biography/smith-betty">Betty Smith</a> was entering a new chapter of life.</p>
<p>A year earlier, she was an unknown writer, negotiating with her publisher about manuscript edits and the date of publication for her first book, “<a href="https://archive.org/stream/ATreeGrowsInBrooklynByBettySmith/A+Tree+Grows+In+Brooklyn+by+Betty+Smith_djvu.txt">A Tree Grows in Brooklyn</a>,” a semi-autobiographical novel about the poor but spirited Nolan family. </p>
<p>Now she was one of the lucky few. Her book was spotted in cafes, on buses and in bookstores all over town. The following year, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0038190/">when it was being made into a film</a> directed by Elia Kazan, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=H1MEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA43&dq=A+Tree+Grows+in+Brooklyn&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj25depp-CDAxXiSTABHYd3C6YQ6AF6BAgKEAI#v=onepage&q=A%20Tree%20Grows%20in%20Brooklyn&f=false">Life magazine reported</a>, “Betty Smith’s ‘A Tree Grows in Brooklyn’ (2,500,000 copies sold) has become one of the best-loved novels of our time.”</p>
<p>New York in the 1940s was not the city we know today. The Empire State Building had not reached its <a href="https://www.esbnyc.com/about/history">full height</a>, nor had the statue of <a href="https://www.centralpark.com/things-to-do/attractions/alice-in-wonderland/">“Alice in Wonderland” taken up residence in Central Park</a>. And it would be decades before anyone was humming along to a tune that brashly commanded, “Start spreadin’ the news, I’m leavin’ today, I want to be a part of it: New York, New York!” </p>
<p>Brooklyn, too, was still becoming itself – and no other 20th-century American novel did quite so much for the borough’s reputation.</p>
<h2>Readers fall for Brooklyn</h2>
<p>During World War II, writes law professor <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/when-books-went-to-war-molly-guptill-manning">Molly Guptill Manning</a>, “A Tree Grows in Brooklyn” was one of the most popular books among the Armed Services Editions, which were mass-produced paperbacks selected by a panel of literary experts for distribution to the U.S. military during World War II. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Green horizontal copy of 'A Tree Grows in Brooklyn' with creases along the cover." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577644/original/file-20240223-28-x187bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577644/original/file-20240223-28-x187bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577644/original/file-20240223-28-x187bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577644/original/file-20240223-28-x187bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577644/original/file-20240223-28-x187bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577644/original/file-20240223-28-x187bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577644/original/file-20240223-28-x187bq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Armed Services Edition of ‘A Tree Grows in Brooklyn.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/03/A-Tree-Grows-in-Brooklyn-ASE.jpg">UNC Libraries</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It seemed like everyone wanted to declare some affiliation with the novel-turned-film and, by extension, with Brooklyn. Even readers who had never set foot in the borough nonetheless found themselves enchanted by it through Smith’s portrayal. </p>
<p>As one reader wrote to Smith, “Raised as a ‘rebel of the old South,’ Brooklyn has long been my symbol of all yankee, thus learning to hate it; but now I have learned to love it through Francie’s eyes … as Francie loved it.”</p>
<p>Advertisers also took note, riffing on Smith’s title with tags such as, “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=SlMEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA8&dq=A+Tree+Grows+in+Brooklyn&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjgn8vbp-CDAxU6RDABHX3uAF44ChDoAXoECAkQAg#v=onepage&q=A%20Tree%20Grows%20in%20Brooklyn&f=false">A Dress Grows on Peggy</a>,” or Rheingold extra dry lager – the “beer that grows in Brooklyn.”</p>
<h2>Poverty loses its sheen of shame</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, readers who had grown up in the borough responded enthusiastically to Smith’s evocations of their favorite neighborhood haunts, writing to her to share their own memories of the shops and streets that she had included in the novel. </p>
<p>“A Tree Grows in Brooklyn” had done something remarkable for them: It removed the veil of shame that surrounded tenement living and, as historian Judith E. Smith has written, <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/visions-of-belonging/9780231121712">helped them reclaim their humble origins</a>.</p>
<p>And not just reclaim them. The novel affirmed the desire to move beyond poverty, as the protagonist, Francie, had done, and Betty Smith, too.</p>
<p>Francie’s wanderings through Brooklyn lead to her discovery of a more inviting public school than her own. With her father’s help, she manages to enroll in the school, which is better funded but farther from home. Despite the extra-long schlep, Francie sees it as “a good thing” to have found this new school: “It showed her that there were other worlds beside the world she had been born into and that these other worlds were not unattainable.” </p>
<p>It was a feeling that people of many backgrounds could understand, and not just in Brooklyn. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Red and white brick apartment buildings in Brooklyn." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577637/original/file-20240223-16-quqvex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577637/original/file-20240223-16-quqvex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577637/original/file-20240223-16-quqvex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577637/original/file-20240223-16-quqvex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577637/original/file-20240223-16-quqvex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577637/original/file-20240223-16-quqvex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577637/original/file-20240223-16-quqvex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">702 Grand Street in Williamsburg, where Smith spent part of her childhood and which served as the setting for ‘A Tree Grows in Brooklyn,’ pictured in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.compass.com/listing/702-grand-street-brooklyn-ny-11211/265170627315403233/">Compass Real Estate</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Smith certainly understood the importance of broadening her horizons: Although she never finished high school, when her marriage to a University of Michigan graduate student brought her to Ann Arbor, she was able to audit classes as a special student.</p>
<p>There, her work for her playwriting classes led to a prestigious playwriting prize, and then an invitation to study at Yale School of Drama. Divorced at that point, Smith was free to pursue her education in theater at Yale. The theme of self-improvement through education made “A Tree Grows” relatable for readers of modest origins.</p>
<p>Readers were quick to see the novel as a paean to Brooklyn, and often sought to bond with Smith over their presumed shared love of Brooklyn.</p>
<p>“I hope you will give us further stories of the Brooklyn which you know, and, I am sure, love so well,” wrote one reader. </p>
<p>“Some day, if you have time, it might be fun to chew the fat a bit about old Williamsburgh (sic),” journalist Meyer Berger wrote to Smith after reading and reviewing her novel. </p>
<p>“Betty Smith obviously loves Brooklyn and is proud of it,” Orville Prescott declared in his <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1943/08/18/issue.html">glowing New York Times review</a>.</p>
<h2>Smith scorns the borough’s new arrivals</h2>
<p>But did Betty Smith love Brooklyn? </p>
<p>After all, she wrote the novel while living in Chapel Hill, North Carolina – years after having moved away from New York. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bkmag.com/2021/08/20/priced-out-the-2020-census-throws-brooklyns-affordable-housing-crisis-into-relief/">Like so many who leave Brooklyn today</a>, Smith did not return to take up residence, in part because she could not afford to live there on her own. By the time she had earned a windfall from “A Tree Grows in Brooklyn,” she had come to love Chapel Hill.</p>
<p>Smith also left Brooklyn with mixed feelings about her hometown. <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/visions-of-belonging/9780231121712">She wrote to her publishers in 1942</a>, “If Hitler’s bombers should ever get over and if any portion of this great city has to be wiped out, it would be a blessing if it were (Williamsburg).” </p>
<p>“Evil seems to be part of the very materials that the sidewalks are made out of and the wood and the brick of the houses,” she added. </p>
<p>Although writing about Brooklyn had brought her fortune and fame, she had no desire to return. </p>
<p>As she explained in her 1942 letter, Smith perceived Brooklyn’s current situation as the result of a changing population and growing crime: “A hundred years ago, it was a quiet peaceful village settled by hard-working, sturdy, honest burghers,” Smith reflected in her letter, adding that even 25 years ago, Williamsburg was a gentler place. “But now it’s a fearful one.” </p>
<p>Smith offered her own analysis of the situation: “The feuds in the neighborhood came about because most of the Italians originally came from Sicily and were fierce and murderous. The Jews in the neighborhood were mostly Russian Jews, conditioned to pogroms and much fiercer and more ready to fight.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Kids tug and pull at one another while a woman cries in the background and another woman tries to keep order." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577631/original/file-20240223-26-2gw4kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577631/original/file-20240223-26-2gw4kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577631/original/file-20240223-26-2gw4kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577631/original/file-20240223-26-2gw4kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577631/original/file-20240223-26-2gw4kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577631/original/file-20240223-26-2gw4kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577631/original/file-20240223-26-2gw4kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A crowd gathers in Williamsburg in 1941 to see the corpse of a man shot twice by an unknown gunman.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/premium-rates-apply-a-crowd-gathers-in-the-williamsburg-news-photo/2716771?adppopup=true">Weegee/International Center of Photography via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like many Americans at the time, Smith held some entrenched and intolerant views about immigrants and their character. Since she was often invited to contribute guest essays to publications during the height of her fame, she had ample opportunity to express her worldview. </p>
<p>After World War II, Smith directed this hostility toward foreigners at America’s wartime enemies. In her August 1945 essay “<a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1945/08/26/305533912.html?pageNumber=104">Thoughts for These Days of Victory</a>,” she encouraged readers not to forget their anger at wartime enemies: “Let us hold this bitterness so that we’ll not again be lulled into a false sense of security. The war proved conclusively that not all men are brothers and that not all nations are sisters.” </p>
<p>A full understanding of the Betty Smith behind the novel that changed how Americans felt about Brooklyn – and their humble origins – are complicated by Smith’s own views and her experiences away from Brooklyn. </p>
<p>As Smith knew, making something of yourself often requires leaving home. It’s hard to tell whether distance made her heart grow fonder. In leaving Brooklyn, Smith had not suddenly started seeing her hometown through rose-colored glasses.</p>
<p>In Chapel Hill she was finally able to see Brooklyn – and write about it – in a way that brought readers of all kinds closer to Brooklyn and legitimized their own origin stories. That, in and of itself, is a kind of love, even if it’s not the unconditional kind so many had imagined.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Gordan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>No other 20th-century American novel did quite so much to burnish Brooklyn’s reputation. But Smith rarely saw her hometown through rose-colored glasses − and even grew to resent it.Rachel Gordan, Assistant Professor of Religion and Jewish Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167002024-02-12T13:25:17Z2024-02-12T13:25:17ZA brief history of Dearborn, Michigan – the first Arab-American majority city in the US<p>Dearborn, Michigan, is a center of Arab American cultural, economic, and political life. It’s home to several of the country’s oldest and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/4462?login=false">most influential mosques</a>, the <a href="https://arabamericanmuseum.org/">Arab American National Museum</a>, dozens of now-iconic Arab <a href="https://halalmetropolis.org/story3">bakeries and restaurants</a>, and a vibrant and essential mix of Arab American <a href="https://www.accesscommunity.org/">service and cultural</a> organizations. </p>
<p>The city became <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2023/09/26/census-data-shows-arab-american-population-in-dearborn-now-makes-up-majority-of-people-living-there/">the first Arab-majority city in the U.S.</a> in 2023, with roughly 55% of the city’s 110,000 residents claiming Middle Eastern or North African ancestry on the 2023 census.</p>
<p>One of us is an <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/old-islam-in-detroit-9780199372003?cc=us&lang=en&">author</a> and <a href="https://umdearborn.edu/people-um-dearborn/sally-howell">historian who specializes in the Arab and Muslim communities of Detroit</a>, and the other is a <a href="https://umdearborn.edu/casl/centers-institutes/center-arab-american-studies/faculty-spotlight-amny-shuraydi">criminologist</a> born and raised in Dearborn who conducts research on the <a href="https://umdearborn.edu/people-um-dearborn/amny-shuraydi">experiences and perceptions of Arab Americans</a>. We have paid close attention to the city’s demographic shifts. </p>
<p>To understand Dearborn today, we must start with the city’s past. </p>
<h2>Ford and Dearborn are in many ways synonymous</h2>
<p>Dearborn owes much of its growth to automotive pioneer Henry Ford, who began building his famous <a href="https://www.thehenryford.org/visit/ford-rouge-factory-tour/history-and-timeline/fords-rouge/">River Rouge Complex</a> in 1917. Migrants from the American South alongside immigrants from European and Arab countries settled <a href="https://lebanesestudies.ojs.chass.ncsu.edu/index.php/mashriq/article/view/63">Dearborn’s Southend</a> neighborhood to work in the auto plant.</p>
<p>While most early 20th-century Arab immigrants to the United States were Christians, those who moved to Dearborn in the 1920s were mainly Muslims from southern Lebanon.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/726343326" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A history of Dearborn in photos by local photographer Millard Berry.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Life downwind of the world’s largest industrial complex proved challenging. But the real threat this diverse population faced in the 1950s through the 1970s was from a city-led rezoning campaign designed to turn the Southend over to heavy industry. </p>
<p>Most of the white ethnic groups in the neighborhood had churches and business districts scattered around Detroit, which <a href="https://lebanesestudies.ojs.chass.ncsu.edu/index.php/mashriq/article/view/63/538">facilitated their departure</a> from the Southend. But for Arab American Muslims, this community, with its mosques and markets, was indispensable as they began to welcome distant kin from the Middle East after <a href="https://immigrationhistory.org/item/hart-celler-act/">U.S. immigration laws</a> relaxed in the 1960s. </p>
<p>Fleeing <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3012042">civil war in Yemen</a> and the <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469630984/the-rise-of-the-arab-american-left/">Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories</a> in 1967, these new Arab immigrants breathed new life into Dearborn. In 1973, they filed a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=1791528153904541635&hl=en&as_sdt=6&as_vis=1&oi=scholarr">class-action lawsuit</a> against the city that eventually saved their neighborhood.</p>
<p>When the <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469630984/the-rise-of-the-arab-american-left/">Lebanese civil war</a> broke out in 1975, the Southend again welcomed a new generation of refugees and migrants. By the 1980s, this mix of first- and second-generation Arab Americans had begun to spill into other neighborhoods in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/4462?login=false">East Dearborn</a>. New mosques began opening in the 1980s, and Arab entrepreneurs began investing in neglected commercial corridors. </p>
<p>But Arab Americans frequently <a href="https://lebanesestudies.ojs.chass.ncsu.edu/index.php/mashriq/article/view/63/538">faced discrimination</a> in the housing market and in the public schools, which struggled to address the needs of a large cohort of English language learners. </p>
<h2>Overcoming discrimination</h2>
<p>Tensions came to a head in 1985, when Michael Guido won a mayoral race in which the “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/decades-after-the-arab-problem-muslim-and-arab-americans-are-leading-political-change-in-metro-detroit">Arab problem</a>,” as his <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3040/Arab_Problem_%282%29.pdf?1707574613">campaign literature</a> described it, pitched the interests of the white working class against new Arab migrants. </p>
<p>Arab American activists responded by pushing for more city services in East Dearborn and running for office. Republican <a href="https://findingaids.lib.umich.edu/catalog/umich-bhl-2015006">Suzanne Sareini</a> was the first Arab American elected to the City Council in 1990. </p>
<p>But with at-large elections, those with <a href="https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1047&context=pad">more Arab-sounding names</a> were at a disadvantage. It took another 20 years, when Arabs became the plurality of the population, before other Arab Americans joined Sareini on the council. </p>
<p>Following the al-Qaeda attacks of 9/11, Dearborn became a target for anti-Arab racism and Islamophobia, <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/12638">government surveillance,</a> and harassment. <a href="https://www.wsupress.wayne.edu/books/detail/arab-detroit-911">The city became a fixation of national media</a> seeking to make sense of its growing Muslim American minority. </p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137290076_6">Anti-Muslim activists </a> regularly staged <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/06/02/pastor-bikers-plan-rally-against-mosque/9858613/">Quran-burnings</a>, paraded around ethnic festivals with the <a href="https://www.dearbornfreepress.com/2012/07/01/protestors-disrupt-arab-festival-with-pigs-head-on-pole/">heads of</a> <a href="https://www.dearbornfreepress.com/2012/07/01/protestors-disrupt-arab-festival-with-pigs-head-on-pole/">pigs on spikes,</a> and threatened to <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/2011/01/dearborn_mosque_concerned_abou.html">bomb local mosques</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the Arab American community continued to grow and diversify. Iraqi and Syrian refugee populations began to arrive in the 1990s and 2010s, respectively, following wars in their homelands. <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5cd95a380e2646d78b425ca308902458">They settled in Dearborn</a> and on its periphery in Detroit and neighboring suburbs. </p>
<p>Together, this new cohort of Arab Americans joined the established community in fighting back against president Donald Trump’s <a href="https://immigrationhistory.org/item/muslim-travel-ban/">Muslim travel ban</a> and other policies that discriminated against refugees, migrants and Muslims by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/4/10/us-democrats-introduce-bill-to-repeal-trumps-travel-ban">building alliances with Democrats</a> and engaging the broadening civil rights coalition, represented by groups such as Black Lives Matter and the Women’s March. </p>
<p>Rep. <a href="https://tlaib.house.gov/">Rashida Tlaib’s</a> landmark election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018 as the first Palestinian American woman and one of the first two Muslim American women reflects this growing progressive political base for Arab Americans. Her district includes Dearborn and parts of Detroit and other suburbs.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A smiling woman with black hair and glasses claps as she walks down a hallway wearing a lanyard." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574778/original/file-20240211-24-o6qb9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rashida Tlaib arrives on Capitol Hill for a new members briefing in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/incoming-representative-rashida-tlaib-arrives-for-a-house-news-photo/1061905936">Brendan Smialowski /AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New leadership</h2>
<p>Reflecting the increasing demographic and political clout of the Arab population in Dearborn, <a href="https://cityofdearborn.org/government/meet-the-mayor-3">Abdullah Hammoud</a> became the city’s first Arab American elected mayor in 2021. </p>
<p>Hammoud’s priorities have included creating the city’s first <a href="https://cityofdearborn.org/news-and-events/city-news/2483-mayor-hammoud-announces-inaugural-director-of-dearborn-department-of-public-health">Department of Public Health</a>, introducing <a href="https://cityofdearborn.org/2-uncategorised/2642-dearborn-public-health-announces-new-narcan-vending-station-to-address-opioid-crisis?highlight=WyJkaW5nZWxsIiwiZGluZ2VsbCdzIl0=">Narcan vending</a> machines to address the opioid crisis, fighting for <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/city-of-dearborn-files-lawsuit-against-scrap-yard-over-hazardous-air-pollution-violations/">clean air in the Southend</a>, and hosting <a href="https://halalmetropolis.org/story1">Ramadan festivities</a> and an <a href="https://arabamericannews.com/2023/05/01/dearborn-mayor-abdullah-hammoud-hosts-first-eid-al-fitr-breakfast-in-the-city/">Eid al-Fitr breakfast</a>. He’s also shown outspoken support for the <a href="https://www.instagram.com/ahammoudmi/p/CjB9JfxLz54/?img_index=1">LGBTQ+ community</a>. </p>
<p>Hammoud <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/dearborn-mayor-abdullah-hammoud-responds-after-house-censures-rep-rashida-tlaib-over-israel-comments/">objected publicly</a> to the congressional censure of Tlaib in 2023 following her remarks about the violence in the Gaza Strip. He also <a href="https://twitter.com/AHammoudMI/status/1750961949674762260">called for an unequivocal cease-fire in Gaza</a> at a time when other Democratic leaders were silent.</p>
<p>Dearborn often becomes a topic of global media interest during election years or at times of conflict in the Middle East. That has certainly been true during the ongoing attacks on the Gaza Strip.</p>
<p>The Wall Street Journal recently published an editorial labeling the city as America’s “jihad capital,” which led to public threats against the city that forced Hammoud to <a href="https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/03/us/dearborn-michigan-mayor-wsj-opinion/index.html">increase police patrols</a>. </p>
<p>Public officials, from <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/wayne-county/2024/02/05/arab-american-leaders-demand-apology-retraction-after-wall-street-journal-piece/72479221007/">local leaders</a> to <a href="https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1754206954715513083">President Joe Biden</a>, have rallied around the city and asked the paper to rescind the editorial and to apologize. </p>
<p>So far, it has not.</p>
<p>The more interesting story about Dearborn, however, is what happens when the national spotlight is turned off. Then, as we have witnessed decade after decade, <a href="https://twitter.com/AHammoudMI/status/1753926374341915131?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">the city’s residents</a>, Arab and non-Arab, <a href="https://wdet.org/2023/06/06/detroit-today-how-dearborn-is-growing-its-population-opposite-of-state-trends/">new and old</a>, work to make their home a better, safer, healthier place to raise their families and their voices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nothing to disclose.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amny Shuraydi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The city often becomes a magnet for anti-Arab sentiment during election years and global conflicts; however, the more interesting story is what happens in the city when the spotlight is turned off.Sally Howell, Professor of History, University of Michigan-DearbornAmny Shuraydi, Assistant Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Michigan-DearbornLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208232024-02-02T13:20:26Z2024-02-02T13:20:26ZAn independent commission is racing to redraw Detroit’s voting maps under a federal court order − but the change may not elect more Black candidates<p><em>A panel of <a href="https://michiganadvance.com/2023/12/22/bombshell-ruling-requires-13-michigan-districts-to-be-redrawn-before-2024-election/">three federal judges ruled on Dec. 21, 2023</a>, that a few state House and Senate legislative maps drawn by an independent Michigan commission <a href="https://vhdshf2oms2wcnsvk7sdv3so.blob.core.windows.net/thearp-media/documents/MI_122-cv-272_131.pdf">violate the Voting Rights Act</a>. Their ruling, which is currently under appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, says the maps dilute Black voting power in 13 Detroit area legislative districts and those districts must be redrawn.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation interviewed <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UqWM3-8AAAAJ&hl=en">Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Lyke+Thompson&inst=18300112617855595941">Lyke Thompson</a>, professors of political science at Wayne State University who have written about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42749-7_6">the redistricting commission</a>.</em> </p>
<h2>Can you tell us about the commission?</h2>
<p>The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc">Commission was created</a> by a statewide ballot initiative to purge partisan politics from redistricting. The initiative <a href="https://mielections.us/election/results/2018GEN_CENR.html">passed in 2018 with 61% support</a>. The commissioners are citizen volunteers drawn randomly from three pools of applicants: four Democrats, four Republicans and five nonpartisans. Our research found that Michigan’s commission has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42749-7_6">more members</a> not affiliated with a political party than any other state redistricting commission.</p>
<p>The commission created 2022 district maps for Michigan’s U.S. House, state House and state Senate elections that were fair to both major political parties, <a href="https://planscore.org/plan.html?20211109T175635.174698348Z">according to PlanScore</a>, a consortium of legal, political science and mapping technology experts.</p>
<h2>How were Michigan legislative maps drawn before the commission?</h2>
<p>Michigan’s 2010 district maps were drawn by Republican politicians and have been held up as examples of extreme <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/maps-show-how-gerrymandering-benefitted-michigan-republicans">partisan gerrymandering</a>. </p>
<p>These lopsided maps triggered a movement, <a href="https://votersnotpoliticians.com/">Voters Not Politicians</a>. Volunteers collected 425,000 signatures to get a constitutional amendment on the Michigan ballot to take redistricting out of the hands of politicians.</p>
<h2>How did the commission create the new maps?</h2>
<p>The commission’s <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/meeting-notices-and-materials">process was exceptionally transparent</a>. It was required to hold at least 10 public meetings to gather input prior to drawing maps; it held 16. It had to hold at least five public meetings after publishing its first drafts; it held 38. Citizens made more than 25,000 public comments at meetings or in written form.</p>
<p>The commission’s maps drawn for the 2022 election cycle did eliminate some majority Black districts in both the state Senate and House, but they more <a href="https://planscore.org/michigan/#!2022-plan-statesenate-d2">accurately reflected Michigan voters’ preferences</a> for Republican and Democratic candidates. That year, Democrats narrowly won control of both state legislative chambers <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/michigan/2022/11/09/michigan-democrats-poised-to-win-control-of-legislature-for-1st-time-in-decades/69632790007/">for the first time since 1984</a>, and the U.S. House delegation includes seven Democrats and six Republicans, an outcome that is consistent with total votes cast.</p>
<h2>Why were the new maps challenged?</h2>
<p>In 2022, a group of Detroit voters filed a lawsuit, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23A641/295344/20240109191018938_Complete%20Appendix.pdf">Agee v. Benson</a>, challenging a few districts based on the federal Voting Rights Act. A three-judge panel ruled that 13 districts in the Detroit metro area – seven for the state House and six for the state Senate – are unconstitutional because they violate the equal protection clause, which says <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/amendment-14/">district lines cannot be drawn based solely on race</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A partial map of Michigan shows an irregular pattern of voting districts with numerical labels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572975/original/file-20240202-15-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The commission’s work is focused on state House districts in Metro Detroit because primaries for the House will be held in August 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/mapping-process/final-maps">MICRC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A taupe map is blocked with black lines and boxes numbered 1 to 24." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572973/original/file-20240202-23-7cr8wt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">State Senate districts in metro Detroit have been challenged as well, but the next Senate election doesn’t take place until 2026, giving mapmakers more time to work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/mapping-process/final-maps">MICRC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The commissioners appealed the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court. But on Jan. 22, the high court refused to stop <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/22/u-s-supreme-court-wont-stop-metro-detroit-redrawn/72192857007/">the process of redrawing the maps</a>. The panel now has until Feb. 2 to present redrawn maps for public comment, with final ones due in March. The Supreme Court may still rule on the commission’s appeal – but likely not until after the state’s primary elections on Aug. 6. </p>
<h2>Why did Detroit lose majority Black districts?</h2>
<p>Each new state House district is supposed to have 91,612 residents, a number derived from dividing Michigan’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/state-by-state/michigan-population-change-between-census-decade.html">2020 population</a> by its 110 state House districts. According to <a href="https://www.semcog.org/community-profiles/communities=5">the U.S. Census Bureau</a>, Detroit lost 93,361 Black residents over the past decade, while losing only 74,666 people in total, reflecting an <a href="https://www.semcog.org/Community-Profiles">influx of White, Latino, multiracial and Asian residents</a>. </p>
<p>One way the commission adjusted for these population shifts and provided opportunities for Black candidates was to create districts that stretched across municipal boundaries – from Detroit into Macomb and Oakland counties. These new district boundaries combined Black voters in the suburbs and Detroit, creating a large enough percentage to allow minority candidates to win elections.</p>
<p>The decline in majority Black districts in Detroit isn’t unique to the 2022 district maps. In 2012, the Michigan Legislative Black Caucus protested losing <a href="https://www.mlive.com/politics/2011/12/michigan_legislative_black_cau_1.html">two other Detroit state House districts</a>. Those losses were related to the drop in Detroit’s 2000-2010 population. In other words, the declining Black population in Detroit is a persistent demographic trend that complicates applying the Voting Rights Act. </p>
<h2>Why is it so complex to make the Voting Rights Act work in Detroit?</h2>
<p>Under the Voting Rights Act, maps can neither crack nor pack minority voters. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23A641/295344/20240109191018938_Complete%20Appendix.pdf">Cracking is when minority voters</a> are spread across multiple districts, which makes it harder for them to win elections.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23A641/295344/20240109191018938_Complete%20Appendix.pdf">Packing groups more minority voters</a> than are typically needed in a district to elect a minority candidate and also dilutes the number of minorities likely to be elected overall. </p>
<p>Election results demonstrate that in Southeast Michigan general election contests, many Michigan voters care more about whether a candidate is <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/-/media/Project/Websites/MiCRC/Nov82021TOJan312022/Handley_Final__Report_to_MICRC_with_Appendices.pdf">a Democrat or a Republican than their race</a>. Experts hired by the commission advised them that 35% to 45% is the sweet spot between packing and cracking Black voters in these districts. The seven House districts ordered redrawn by the court have <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/experts-everything-air-now-michigan-districts-must-be-redrawn">37% to 49% Black voters</a>. </p>
<p>Black migration from Detroit to its inner-ring suburbs provided the commission a way to unpack majority-minority districts and avoid cracking Black suburban populations. For example, the Black population of Eastpointe, a suburb immediately north of Detroit in Macomb County, increased <a href="https://www.semcog.org/community-profiles/communities=3035">from 29% in 2010 to 52% in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>Black candidates won 2022 elections in <a href="http://www.ippsr.msu.edu/public-policy/michigan-wonk-blog/redistrictings-effect-black-representation-michigan">five of the seven House districts that the court has ordered redrawn</a>. But the plaintiffs in Agee v. Benson argue that it takes higher percentages of Black voters to win primaries because so many candidates run and end up splitting the vote. In two primary elections where Black candidates lost, <a href="http://www.ippsr.msu.edu/public-policy/michigan-wonk-blog/redistrictings-effect-black-representation-michigan">the votes were split</a>. In District 11, which is 44% Black voters, the ballot had nine candidates. Veronica Paiz, a Hispanic woman, won with less than 19% of the votes cast. In District 8, which has 46% Black voters, Mike McFall, a white man, won the primary with 38% of the vote against two Black candidates.</p>
<h2>So you’re suggesting too many primary candidates, not map boundaries, dilute the Black vote?</h2>
<p>Yes, that is what <a href="http://www.ippsr.msu.edu/public-policy/michigan-wonk-blog/redistrictings-effect-black-representation-michigan">the evidence suggests</a>. For example, three Black primary candidates lost in the 9th House District, which has 53% Black voters. The 5th House District with 57% Black voters attracted five primary candidates; a white woman won with 38% of the votes cast, while two Black men won 40% of the primary votes between the two of them. So changing district boundaries isn’t an effective way to solve the problem. </p>
<p>Other solutions like <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ranked-choice-voting-a-political-scientist-explains-165055">ranked choice voting</a> could increase opportunities for Black primary victories, regardless of how many candidates run. This voting system is gaining popularity in places as disparate as <a href="https://alaskapublic.org/2023/09/19/north-to-the-future-alaskas-ranked-choice-voting-system-is-praised-and-criticized-nationally/">Alaska</a>, <a href="https://electionlab.mit.edu/articles/effect-ranked-choice-voting-maine">Maine</a> and <a href="https://www.thecity.nyc/2023/03/23/how-does-ranked-choice-voting-work-in-new-york-city/">New York City</a>.</p>
<h2>The new maps must be finalized by March 29. What does this mean for 2024 elections?</h2>
<p>Given the tight deadline for the commission to publish the maps, receive public comments and then vote on the maps, candidates will have a shorter window to organize primary election campaigns. Some incumbents will see their constituents shift again. And it is possible that Black voters will be packed into a smaller number of districts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220823/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson gathered signatures for the ballot initiative that put the redistricting commission before voters, and donated $100 to the group Voters Not Politicians.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lyke Thompson helped gather signatures for the 2018 ballot initiative that created the citizen commission.</span></em></p>The commission has tight deadlines to finalize new maps. 2 voting rights experts explain the messy situation.Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, Professor of Political Science, Wayne State UniversityLyke Thompson, Professor of Political Science, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219582024-01-25T18:21:40Z2024-01-25T18:21:40ZWhat UAW backing means for Biden − and why the union’s endorsement took so long<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571435/original/file-20240125-19-6chglq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7228%2C4426&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"> UAW President Shawn Fain, left, clasps hands with President Biden after endorsing his bid for reelection.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-and-shawn-fain-president-of-the-united-news-photo/1950953071?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The United Auto Workers has endorsed President <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/24/politics/biden-uaw-endorsement/index.html">Joe Biden’s bid for reelection in 2024</a>. “Joe Biden has earned it,” said union president Shawn Fain on Jan. 24 as he announced the union’s decision to back the incumbent candidate.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. asked Marick Masters, a Wayne State University <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TcpezG4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of labor, politics and business issues</a>, to explain why the UAW waited until now to endorse Biden and why this endorsement matters.</em></p>
<h2>Why is the UAW endorsement significant?</h2>
<p>The UAW’s endorsement provides symbolic and substantive support for the president.</p>
<p>Symbolically, it shores up Biden’s backing by organized labor – a critical constituency in an election year that promises a tight rematch between him and former President Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Recent national polls have <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/">leaned at least slightly in Trump’s favor</a>, which means that Biden will have to mobilize voters in key battleground states like Michigan – where the largest number of the UAW’s <a href="https://uaw.org/abou">400,000 active and 580,000 retired</a> members live – to win reelection.</p>
<p>Substantively, the endorsement clears the way for the deployment of the political muscle of this union to help get out the vote for Biden in November. Historically, the United Auto Workers has tried to help its members and the public in general become well informed about politics and elections and sought to mobilize voters for the candidates it endorses.</p>
<p>Although the ranks of organized labor in the U.S., including the UAW, have generally declined significantly since their heyday in the 1950s, the United Auto Workers has a formidable network in battleground states like Michigan, where roughly 130,000 of its members reside. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/michigan">Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020</a>, while <a href="https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/michigan/">Hillary Clinton lost it by just 11,600 votes</a> in 2016.</p>
<p>Unions made <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/02/unions-spent-big-boost-biden/">about US$27.5 million in contributions</a> to Biden’s 2020 campaign. While nominally a significant amount, it pales in comparison to the amount that businesses contributed. Biden’s 2020 bid was the <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/02/2020-cycle-cost-14p4-billion-doubling-16/">first ever to draw more than $1 billion</a> from donors.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KFUgcfkROA4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">UAW President Shawn Fain announced the union’s endorsement of President Joe Biden’s reelection bid.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What led to the delay in endorsing?</h2>
<p>Rather than make an early endorsement of President Biden, in 2023 the United Auto Workers instead <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-uaws-fain-rocky-road-194104577.html">voiced dissatisfaction with the administration’s policy</a> of accelerating the transition to electric vehicles.</p>
<p>From the union’s perspective, the Biden administration had not given labor rights adequate protection as the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/03/auto-union-withholds-support-for-biden-citing-evs-00095136">Big Three automakers formed joint ventures</a> with foreign-based manufacturers of batteries to facilitate the industry’s transition to producing far more electric vehicles. </p>
<p>As the union prepared for its contract negotiations with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis – the global company that manufacturers Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep vehicles in the U.S. – the UAW hoped to exert whatever influence it could over lawmakers and the companies to open the joint ventures to union representation.</p>
<p>But Fain made it abundantly clear at the time, as he has done again and again, that Trump was not a viable alternative. He <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/politics/fain-trump-detroit/index.html">has repeatedly said</a> that Trump’s election in 2024 would be “a disaster.”</p>
<p>And to be sure, the UAW <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/joe-biden-endorsed-by-united-auto-workers-in-2020-presidential-campaign.html">didn’t endorse Biden’s 2020 candidacy until April 21 of that year</a>. It moved faster this time.</p>
<h2>How did UAW members vote in 2016 and 2020?</h2>
<p>Despite widespread union endorsements of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020, a significant percentage of union members cast their ballots for Donald Trump in both elections.</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/series/3">38% of union members voted for Trump</a> compared with 58% for Clinton, according to University of Michigan researchers. In 2020, 40% of voters in union households voted for Trump compared with 56% for Biden.</p>
<p>That’s in line with the UAW’s partisan breakdown in prior elections. About <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-auto-workers-endorsement-trump-election-ef4b26cd00fc67c4915f22e54b885866">60% of UAW members and retirees have historically voted for Democratic Party</a> candidates, according to Brian Rothenberg, a former union spokesman.</p>
<p>In close races, support from the United Auto Workers and the rest of organized labor could prove decisive, notwithstanding that the union’s membership has fallen from <a href="https://www.labor.ucla.edu/in-the-news/uaw-membership-peaked-at-1-5-million-workers-in-the-late-70s-heres-how-its-changed/">1.5 million in the late 1970s</a> to less than 400,000 today, and that overall the union membership rate in the U.S. workforce <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-10-us-workers-belong-to-unions-a-share-thats-stabilized-after-a-steep-decline-221571">has shrunk to 10%</a>. </p>
<p>And in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have numerous union members, the United Auto Workers’ efforts on behalf of presidential candidates may tip the balance. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.t05.htm">Unions had roughly 564,000 members in Michigan</a> in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. </p>
<h2>Was there a chance that the UAW could have backed Trump?</h2>
<p>No chance whatsoever.</p>
<p>The United Auto Workers would have condemned itself within the Democratic Party and progressive circles if it had broken with tradition and not endorsed the party’s candidate. Endorsing Trump would have forfeited the UAW’s leverage to influence the Biden administration’s policies regarding the transition to vehicle electrification.</p>
<p>“Donald Trump is a billionaire, and that’s who he represents,” <a href="https://www.wxyz.com/news/uaw-endorses-president-joe-biden-for-2024-election-fain-calls-donald-trump-a-scab">Fain declared</a> before making the union’s endorsement. “If Donald Trump ever worked in an auto plant, he wouldn’t be a UAW member, he’d be a company man trying to squeeze the American worker. Donald Trump stands against everything we stand for as a union, as a society.”</p>
<p>I believe that endorsing Trump would also have created an irreconcilable rift in the union itself with harmful fallout. And it would have alienated Biden, who showed his support for the union’s strikers in September 2023 by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-makes-history-striking-auto-workers-picket-line-rcna117348">standing with them on the picket line</a> – a first for any sitting president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>While Marick Masters was serving as the director of the Douglas A. Fraser Center for Workplace Issues at Wayne State University from 2009 through 2019, the Center received grants from the Detroit Three's joint training centers with the United Auto Workers to pursue education and research on unions and labor-management relations. These grants were operating strictly within the purview of the university.</span></em></p>In close races, support from the United Auto Workers and the rest of organized labor could prove decisive.Marick Masters, Professor of Business and Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207692024-01-23T20:02:18Z2024-01-23T20:02:18ZMichigan selects its legislative redistricting commissioners the way the ancient Athenians did<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570410/original/file-20240119-21-bkynf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C38%2C5066%2C3349&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michigan’s redistricting commission consists of ordinary citizens with no special qualifications. A court has disapproved their initial effort.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedistrictingMajorityMinorityDistricts/5137b615fc8d46858956d5ec7bff88e1/photo?boardId=c895684284c34868ab222ff6c8ee3ff0&st=boards&mediaType=audio,photo,video,graphic&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=12&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Carlos Osorio</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How well can ordinary citizens exercise a political function traditionally assigned to elected legislators? </p>
<p>Michigan is finding out. The state has assigned the job of drawing election districts to a group of citizens with no special qualifications. Selecting government officials by lot is a procedure <a href="https://blog.oup.com/2016/03/sortition-ancient-greece-democracy/">first employed in Athens 2,500 years ago</a>. This experiment has produced dramatic results – as well as a court challenge. </p>
<p>The Michigan experiment marks a departure from how redistricting has usually been done.</p>
<p>Every 10 years, after the U.S. Census Bureau determines how many members of the House of Representatives are allocated to each state, the states redraw the geographical districts from which members of the House, as well as members of the state legislature, are elected. Historically, state legislatures have been responsible for making these maps.</p>
<p>But throughout U.S. history, the redistricting process has been marred by <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/news/2019/10/01/475166/impact-partisan-gerrymandering/">partisan gerrymandering</a> – drawing election districts to favor the political party that controls the state legislature.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/redistricting-litigation-roundup-0">Gerrymandering has often been challenged in court</a> as a violation of the Constitution’s equal protection clause and on other grounds. But in 2019, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">the U.S. Supreme Court held</a> that federal courts may not hear claims of partisan gerrymandering because they represent a “political question” that is unsuited for resolution by the courts.</p>
<p>The high court held that such issues should instead be resolved by the legislative and executive branches of government. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State-by-state_redistricting_procedures">Eight states have withdrawn the authority</a> to draw election districts from legislatures and assigned it to independent commissions. The procedures for selecting the members of these commissions vary, but in most states they are chosen by state legislators or judges. </p>
<p>Michigan’s <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc">Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission</a>, created by a <a href="https://votersnotpoliticians.com/redistricting/">2018 ballot initiative</a>, is unique. As a professor who teaches <a href="https://law.wayne.edu/profile/aj8419">constitutional law</a> and, occasionally, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1020397">ancient Athenian law</a>, I am fascinated by the fact that Michigan’s seemingly novel experiment in governance is based on a process that is thousands of years old. </p>
<h2>Selection by lot</h2>
<p>Unlike any other state, Michigan selected its 13 commission members almost entirely by lot from among those who applied for the position. </p>
<p>All Michigan registered voters who met the eligibility criteria, which excluded holders of political office and lobbyists, were eligible to apply. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.michigan.gov/som/0,4669,7-192-47796-532639--,00.html">From 9,367 applicants</a>, the Michigan secretary of state randomly selected 200 semifinalists. The process resulted in 60 Democrats, 60 Republicans and 80 independents. Following the procedure established by the ballot initiative, the four leaders of the Michigan Legislature then eliminated 20 of those semifinalists. </p>
<p>In August 2020, the secretary of state <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/08/13-commissioners-randomly-selected-to-draw-new-district-lines-for-michigan-house-senate.html">randomly selected the 13 commissioners</a> from the remaining pool of 180 candidates – four Democrats, four Republicans and five independents, as required.</p>
<p>In a process completed in December 2021, the commission – made up of citizens with no special qualifications for the office – created election districts that were used to elect officials to the Michigan Legislature and the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 election cycle.</p>
<h2>Random selection in ancient Athens</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In a formal painting, a man stands on a platform addressing a crowd. A classical white building with pillars is in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In ancient Athens, most government officials were selected at random from among citizens eligible to fill the positions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rijksmuseum.nl/en/collection/RP-F-2001-7-864-5">Philipp Foltz</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the exception of trial juries, the random selection of citizens to fill government office is almost unheard of. But it was not always that way. </p>
<p>Random selection was a prominent <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Athenian_Democracy/">feature of the ancient Athenian democracy</a>. In the fifth and fourth centuries B.C., most important government offices were filled by lottery. The Athenians considered this selection of officials a hallmark of democracy.</p>
<p>These included the <a href="http://www.stoa.org/demos/article_democracy_overview@page=6&greekEncoding=UnicodeC.html">500 members of the Council</a>. This body proposed legislation for the agenda of the Assembly, composed of all free male adult citizens who chose to attend and the centerpiece of Athenian direct democracy. It also handled diplomatic relations between Athens and other states and appointed the members of administrative bodies. </p>
<p>Those selected by lot also included the nine chief officials of the city-state, <a href="https://erenow.net/ancient/ancient-greece-and-rome-an-encyclopedia-for-students-4-volume-set/268.php">the archons</a>, who had executive and judicial responsibilities. About 1,100 officials were selected annually by lot from a citizen population of about 25,000. </p>
<p>The Athenian historian Xenophon tells us that the philosopher Socrates, who was sentenced to death by an Athenian jury for his unorthodox views, thought that the Athenians were foolish to entrust the selection of the bulk of government officials to chance: <a href="http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0208%3Abook%3D1%3Achapter%3D2%3Asection%3D9">Nobody would select “a pilot or builder or flautist by lot</a>,” Socrates observed, so why trust to chance the selection of government officials who, if unsuited to their responsibilities, could harm the community?</p>
<p>The Athenians agreed with Socrates to an extent. In Athens, an additional 100 or so officials were elected by the Assembly, not selected by lot. They included the 10 generals responsible for commanding the army and navy. The Athenians thought the generals’ role was too important, and too dependent on skills possessed by few citizens, to allow the choice to be made randomly.</p>
<h2>How did Michigan’s redistricting commission do?</h2>
<p>Like piloting a ship or commanding an army, districting is a complex task. The <a href="http://tinyurl.com/bdfm4yut">2018 amendment to the Michigan Constitution</a> that established the commission says that the districts must be drawn in compliance with federal law. That includes a requirement that voting districts have roughly the same populations. It also requires that the districts “reflect the state’s diverse population and communities of interest” and “not provide a disproportionate advantage to any political party.”</p>
<p>Dividing the map to meet all of these criteria is not within the capabilities of a group of randomly selected citizens. Recognizing this, the 2018 amendment authorizes the commission to hire “independent, nonpartisan subject-matter experts and legal counsel” to assist them. The experts that the commission hired <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/redistricting-experts-tell-court-we-followed-law-michigan-maps">guided its members closely</a> throughout the redistricting process.</p>
<p>The outcome of the 2022 elections supports a conclusion that the commission achieved the goals that motivated its creation. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.michiganradio.org/post/report-quantifies-michigans-very-real-gerrymandering-problem">2018 report</a> by the nonpartisan Citizens Research Council of Michigan found that the state’s election districts were “highly-gerrymandered, with current district maps drawn so that Republicans are ensured disproportionate majorities on both the state and federal levels.” In 2019 a <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/04/25/michigan-gerrymandering/3576663002/">federal court</a> held that Michigan’s gerrymandering violated the U.S. Constitution. That opinion was later vacated, or canceled, for jurisdictional reasons. </p>
<p>This gerrymandering was reflected in election results. In recent elections preceding the 2022 redistricting, Democratic candidates for the Michigan House of Representatives received a majority of the votes cast, yet <a href="https://votersnotpoliticians.com/voters-won-in-michigan-this-year-and-fair-maps-made-the-difference/">a majority of the candidates elected were Republican</a>. But in the 2022 elections, the first held using the redistricting commission’s maps, Democratic candidates for both the Michigan Senate and House won a majority of the votes and were awarded a majority of the seats: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-michigan.html">20-18 in the Senate and 56-54 in the House</a>. Democrats control both houses of the state Legislature for <a href="https://michiganadvance.com/2022/11/09/democrats-wrest-control-of-michigan-legislature-for-first-time-in-almost-40-years/">the first time since 1984</a>.</p>
<h2>Legal challenge to redistricting commission’s maps</h2>
<p>While the redistricting commission can claim success in eliminating the state’s partisan gerrymandering, in December 2023 <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/michigan/miwdce/1:2022cv00272/104360/131/">a federal district court held</a> that the procedure the commission followed in drawing some of the election districts violated the U.S. Constitution. </p>
<p>The court said that the commission violated the equal protection clause when it drew boundaries for seven state House and six state Senate districts in metro Detroit in such a way that <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/experts-everything-air-now-michigan-districts-must-be-redrawn">the voting power of Black voters was diluted</a>. </p>
<p>The commission filed an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court, but the court <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/22/michigan-redistricting-commission-us-supreme-court-redraw-house-senate-district-boundaries/72272380007/">denied the commission’s request for a stay</a> of the lower court’s order. The commission is now working to redraw the districts, and the lower court has ordered it to have a draft of the state House districts ready for public comment by Feb. 2. Time is now of the essence, since under state law the candidate filing deadline is April 23.</p>
<p><em>Portions of this article originally appeared in <a href="https://theconversation.com/michigans-effort-to-end-gerrymandering-revives-a-practice-rooted-in-ancient-athens-143892">an article published on Sept. 30, 2020</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rothchild does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A battle over the voting districts in Detroit has landed in the Supreme Court, but any ruling may come too late for 2024 state elections.John Rothchild, Professor of Law, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145202023-12-08T13:35:54Z2023-12-08T13:35:54ZMichigan is spending $107M more on pre-K − here’s what the money will buy<p><em>About <a href="https://nieer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/YB2022_FullReport.pdf">one-third</a> of the nation’s 4-year-olds are enrolled in state-funded prekindergarten programs.</em></p>
<p><em>In Michigan, 32% of 4-year-olds attend the state’s public pre-K program. However, the state has invested an additional <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/mde/news-and-information/press-releases/2023/08/16/expansions-to-gsrp-will-benefit-thousands-of-children-and-families">US$107 million</a> from its 2023-24 budget to educate 4-year-olds, 20% more money compared to the prior year.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://marsal.umich.edu/directory/faculty-staff/christina-j-weiland">Christina Weiland</a>, associate professor of education at the University of Michigan, and <a href="https://steinhardt.nyu.edu/people/ajay-chaudry">Ajay Chaudry</a>, research scholar at New York University, are co-authors of “<a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/cradle-kindergarten-2ndEdition">Cradle to Kindergarten: A New Plan to Combat Inequality</a>,” a book about how to make affordable, high-quality early care and education available for all U.S. families.</em></p>
<p><em>Here, they answer five questions about Michigan’s new investment in preschool education.</em></p>
<p><strong>How many kids attend public pre-K in Michigan?</strong></p>
<p>Michigan’s <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/mileap/early-childhood-education/early-learners-and-care/gsrp">Great Start Readiness Program</a> is a voluntary public pre-K program for 4-year-olds operating in all but one of Michigan’s 83 counties. Classrooms are offered in both public schools and in community-based partner organizations.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cep.msu.edu/upload/gsrp/GSRP%20Annual%20Report%202021-22.pdf">majority of children</a> who attend qualify based on their family’s income. Kids whose parents earn up to 300% of the federal poverty line, or <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1c92a9207f3ed5915ca020d58fe77696/detailed-guidelines-2023.pdf">$90,000 for a family of 4</a>, are eligible. Children can also <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/-/media/Project/Websites/mde/gsrp/implementation/risk_factor_definitions.pdf?rev=578c7255aee44ef4a94199f6956bf3d8">gain access to the program</a> if they have a disability, at least one of their parents has not graduated from high school or is illiterate, or English is not the primary language in their home. </p>
<p>In the 2021-22 school year, <a href="https://cep.msu.edu/upload/gsrp/GSRP%20Annual%20Report%202021-22.pdf">the program operated</a> in 2,524 classrooms and enrolled 30,872 children across Michigan. By our team’s estimates, enrollment increased to 33,200 in 2022-23. </p>
<p><iframe id="JAMAW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JAMAW/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><strong>What are the strengths of the program, and where could it do better?</strong> </p>
<p>Michigan is <a href="https://nieer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/YB2022_FullReport.pdf">one of only five states</a> to meet all 10 quality benchmarks set by the National Institute for Early Education Research, a research institution based at Rutgers University. </p>
<p>Some of the program’s notable strengths include requiring universal developmental and health screenings for students, offering in-classroom coaching for all Great Start teachers and requiring lead teachers to have a college degree and specialized early education training. Nationally, only about half of state pre-K programs require a college degree for teachers and only about a third require coaching. </p>
<p>Like all state-funded pre-K programs, Great Start also has some room for improvement. In a recent <a href="https://edpolicy.umich.edu/sites/epi/files/2023-12/MI%20Pre-K%20for%20All%20Report_v8_0.pdf">policy brief</a>, our team highlighted several critical areas for further investment. For example, there are large gaps in pay and benefits for Great Start teachers compared with K-12 teachers in the state. <a href="https://cep.msu.edu/upload/gsrp/GSRP%20Annual%20Report%202021-22.pdf">These gaps</a> amount to an average of $17,500 less per year for state pre-K teachers in public schools and $25,000 less per year for those in community-based programs. </p>
<p>These pay gaps help explain why 18% of lead teachers and 28% of assistant teachers still needed additional courses to meet the program’s educational requirements in the 2021-22 school year. </p>
<p>Pay parity for Great Start teachers would help Michigan school systems recruit additional qualified teachers. In 2021-22, <a href="https://cep.msu.edu/upload/gsrp/GSRP%20Annual%20Report%202021-22.pdf">the vacancy rate</a> was 4% for lead teachers and 6% for assistant teachers.</p>
<p>Also, Michigan ranks <a href="https://nieer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SE_FullReport.pdf">near the bottom</a> of states in early childhood inclusion, a model that allows children with special needs to attend preschool alongside their typically developing peers.</p>
<p>And finally, just as in most public pre-K programs nationally, most Great Start classrooms use curricula that have been repeatedly outperformed by other options. Children – especially those from historically marginalized backgrounds – learn more from <a href="https://www.srcd.org/sites/default/files/resources/FINAL_SRCDCEB-CurriculaCoaching.pdf">evidence-based curricula</a>. However, less effective curricula persist in preschool programs around the country due in part to the history of early childhood education but also because of policy decisions.</p>
<p><strong>What is Michigan’s new investment slated to fund?</strong></p>
<p>The $107 million in additional funding for Great Start covers three critical areas. </p>
<p>First, new funding is meant to increase the number of children served and get kids off waitlists. </p>
<p>Second, additional funding is targeted to better meet the needs of working families. Historically, Great Start programs have served children four days per week for 30 weeks per year. With this new investment, some programs will offer children instruction five days per week and 36 weeks per year, bringing Great Start in line with the public school calendar. The expanded schedule stands to boost child learning, better match family work schedules and enable some families who were previously shut out to enroll.</p>
<p>Finally, $35 million is slated for classroom startup grants of $25,000 to help open new classrooms and expand existing programs in public schools and community-based organizations. </p>
<p><strong>What does research say about the benefits of public pre-K?</strong></p>
<p>Decades of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/puzzling-it-out-the-current-state-of-scientific-knowledge-on-pre-kindergarten-effects/">rigorous research</a> show that children who attend high-quality pre-K programs are more ready for kindergarten, meaning they have on average stronger language, literacy, math, social emotional and executive function skills than their peers who did not attend preschool. Dual-language learners, children of color, children from families with low incomes and children with disabilities <a href="https://www.srcd.org/news/investing-our-future-evidence-base-preschool-education">particularly benefit</a> from high-quality pre-K. </p>
<p>Pre-K also <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/effects-universal-preschool-washington-d-c/">supports families</a> by giving parents time to work. </p>
<p>The benefits of preschool can <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/puzzling-it-out-the-current-state-of-scientific-knowledge-on-pre-kindergarten-effects/">last into adulthood</a>, improving high school graduation rates, college enrollment rates and the long-term health of kids who attend.</p>
<p>Families with higher incomes in the U.S. have historically had <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/do-we-already-have-universal-preschool/">more access</a> to high-quality preschool than families with less means. Public pre-K programs help fill that gap.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young Black boy pushes a car along a colorful playmat" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562226/original/file-20231128-23-czpy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children who attend high-quality preschools can reap benefits into adulthood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/boy-playing-chevrolet-camaro-toy-on-floor-3BztcJxliEM">Segun Osunyomi/unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>What’s next in Michigan?</strong></p>
<p>Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration has <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/mde/news-and-information/press-releases/2023/01/26/michigans-children-to-benefit-from-governor-whitmers-education-proposals">announced intentions</a> to continue to expand public pre-K, including a goal of offering universal pre-K to all Michigan 4-year-olds by <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/mde/news-and-information/press-releases/2023/08/16/expansions-to-gsrp-will-benefit-thousands-of-children-and-families">the end of 2026</a>.</p>
<p>To date, only six states – Florida, Iowa, Oklahoma, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin – plus D.C. have achieved <a href="https://nieer.org/the-state-of-preschool-yearbook-2022">universal preschool</a> for 4-year-olds, according to the National Institute for Early Education Research.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nothing to disclose</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina J. Weiland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scholars who study disparities in early care and education answer five questions about Michigan’s Great Start Readiness Program.Christina J. Weiland, Associate Professor of Education, University of MichiganAjay Chaudry, Research Scholar, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145092023-10-01T09:57:46Z2023-10-01T09:57:46ZTrade unions and the new economy: 3 African case studies show how workers are recasting their power in the digital age<p>From US <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-trump-woo-union-workers-michigan-auto-strikes-grow-2023-09-26/">car factories</a> to public sector workers <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/5/nigerian-unions-strike-again-to-protest-soaring-costs-after-subsidy-removal">in Nigeria</a> and <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2023/09/08/city-of-tshwane-samwu-strike-a-deliberate-effort-to-turn-the-city-into-a-dumpsite">South Africa</a>, strikes by trade unions continue unabated among the established sectors of the working class. In Detroit in the US, workers are resisting contract employment. In Nigeria they are angry over the rising cost of living and in South Africa, municipal workers are striking for better wages.</p>
<p>But it’s becoming increasingly difficult to build sustainable worker organisations as companies employ more people on a casual basis in the digital age. Work has become more precarious and workers are easily replaceable. </p>
<p>In our <a href="https://witspress.co.za/page/detail/Recasting-Workers%EF%BF%BD-Power/?k=9781776148820">new book</a>, Recasting Workers’ Power: Work and Inequality in the Shadow of the Digital Age, we focus on workers’ power. The classic example of workers’ power is the strike: the collective withdrawal of labour to force an employer to do what they would otherwise not have done. </p>
<p>In this book we challenge the dominant narrative that new technology has destroyed workers’ power. We focus on the new jobs that are being created – food couriers, e-hailing drivers, street traders and the growing numbers of casual workers at the core of the economy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zambias-copper-mines-hard-baked-racism-into-the-workplace-by-labelling-whites-expats-188751">Zambia's copper mines hard-baked racism into the workplace by labelling whites 'expats'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We show how these precarious workers are organising in new ways that go beyond the traditional methods of union formation. For example, they are forming coalitions with other organisations, such as NGOs. In some cases they are combining these new approaches with traditional ways of bringing workers’ collective power to bear, for example by making use of laws that support workers’ rights.</p>
<h2>Three case studies</h2>
<p>We focus on three sectors: factory workers in Ekurhuleni, east of Johannesburg in South Africa; food couriers in Johannesburg; and transport workers in Kampala, Uganda. </p>
<p>We examined their ways of organising by applying, in addition to the strike weapon, the lens of three other ways of exercising power: associational power (collective organisation), coalitions (societal power) and institutional power (laws that entrench labour rights). </p>
<p>We found the factory workers were using a range of tools – old and new – to organise. Factory committees were formed at some workplaces. This involved working with a labour supportive NGO. But they also drew on old practices (institutional power) by taking up cases through the <a href="https://www.ccma.org.za/">Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration</a> and the amended <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/labour-relations-act">Labour Relations Act</a>. Both offer the possibility of workers being able to get permanent jobs in the company at which they work.</p>
<p>The food carriers were using different tactics. In Johannesburg they had created worker-driven messaging apps and chat groups where they shared information, developed a shared identity and announced local direct action. </p>
<p>Being self-employed weakens their organising power. But the potential for collective power was increased when they met face-to-face at work zones and began to form a collective identity. Some have engaged in collective action, but with limited impact to date. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/has-south-africas-labour-movement-become-a-middle-class-movement-82629">Has South Africa’s labour movement become a middle class movement?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>They achieved some success when they worked with a supportive NGO (an international organisation) to put forward demands to regulate their work.</p>
<p>In Kampala, we found that the Amalgamated Transport and General Workers’ Union was also using new approaches to organise workers. In the 1980s the union faced a near collapse of membership when privatisation undermined the public transport sector. This eliminated the position of the traditional public transport bus driver. Informal mini-taxi drivers and motorcycle taxi riders (known locally as boda boda) became the dominant mode of transport.</p>
<p>By classifying the growing number of boda boda riders as workers and therefore potential union members, the union expanded from a declining 5,000 members to over 100,000. In spite of the fragmented and isolated nature of their work these new workers were already organised – not into a trade union but into informal associations. </p>
<p>These associations formed an alliance with the established union. By doing this they gained concrete support from the International Transport Federation, a global union of transport workers. This led to the dramatic growth of the union, a decline in police harassment and growing recognition as a collective bargaining partner.</p>
<p>Importantly, where trade unions have taken up the issues of informal workers, unions have also undergone fundamental changes. They often become “hybrid” organisations, blurring the distinction between traditional unionism, informal workers’ associations and cooperatives.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/recasting-labours-power">research</a> clearly articulates the challenges workers face. But it also suggests some grounds for optimism in the new and hybrid forms of organisation and the coalitions that are emerging. </p>
<p>The question raised by these findings is whether these embryonic forms of worker organisation are sustainable. Could they become the foundations for a new cycle of worker solidarity and union growth?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-formal-employment-is-not-a-guaranteed-path-to-social-equality-177251">Why formal employment is not a guaranteed path to social equality</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We conclude that this is possible if they innovate and experiment with new forms of association, use digital tools, and broaden unions’ reach through coalition-building with other civil society organisations. In sum, we are suggesting that workers’ power is being recast as precarious workers in Africa experiment with new ways of organising in the digital age.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edward Webster receives funding from organisation.Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. I am a Distinguished Research Professor at the Southern Centre of Inequality Studies at the University of the Witwatersrand </span></em></p>Workers’ power is being recast as precarious workers in Africa experiment with new ways of organising in the digital ageEdward Webster, Distinguished Reserach Professor, Southern Centre for Inequality Studies, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089232023-08-16T12:26:33Z2023-08-16T12:26:33ZMichigan pipeline standoff could affect water protection and Indigenous rights across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542481/original/file-20230813-175390-x00yus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4446%2C2884&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A ferry arrives at Mackinac Island in the Straits of Mackinac, Michigan's largest tourist draw.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Travel-Trip-MackinacIsland/9896e61c897e4175ba9ce529bd127562/photo">AP Photo/Anick Jesdanun</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Should states and Indigenous nations be able to influence energy projects they view as harmful or contrary to their laws and values? This question lies at the center of a heated debate over <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/egle/about/featured/line5/overview">Enbridge Energy’s Line 5 pipeline</a>, which carries oil and natural gas across Wisconsin and Michigan. </p>
<p>Courts, regulatory agencies and political leaders are deciding whether Enbridge should be allowed to keep its pipeline in place for another 99 years, with upgrades. The state of Michigan and the <a href="http://www.badriver-nsn.gov/">Bad River Tribe</a> in Wisconsin want to <a href="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/MIEOG/2020/11/13/file_attachments/1600920/Notice%20of%20%20Revocation%20and%20Termination%20of%20%20Easement%20%2811.13.20%29.pdf">close the pipeline down immediately</a>.</p>
<p>My expertise is in Great Lakes water and energy policy, environmental protection and sustainability leadership. I have analyzed and taught these issues as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YKC4V5gAAAAJ&hl=en">sustainability scholar</a>, and I have worked on them as the National Wildlife Federation’s <a href="https://nwf.org/greatlakes">Great Lakes regional executive director</a> from 2015 until early 2023. </p>
<p>In my view, the future of Line 5 has become a defining issue for the future of the Great Lakes region. It also could set an important precedent for reconciling energy choices with state regulatory authority and Native American rights.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OCW6fiNSXjs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tribal leaders and Native community members explain what the Straits of Mackinac mean to their cultures.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A Canadian pipeline through the US Midwest</h2>
<p>Line 5, built in 1953, runs 643 miles from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario. It carries up to 23 million gallons of oil and natural gas liquids daily, produced mainly from <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/tar-sand">Canadian tar sands in Alberta</a>. </p>
<p>Most of this oil and gas goes to refineries in Ontario and Quebec. Some remains in the U.S. for propane production or processing at refineries in Michigan and Ohio.</p>
<p>Controversy over Line 5 centers mainly on two locations: the Bad River Band Reservation in Wisconsin, where the pipeline crosses tribal land, and the Straits of Mackinac (pronounced “Mackinaw”) in Michigan. This channel between Michigan’s upper and lower peninsulas connects Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the Line 5 route across Wisconsin and Michigan and through the Straits of Mackinac." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541274/original/file-20230804-17305-8y9tf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario, is part of a larger regional pipeline network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/line-5-michigan/about-line-5">Enbridge</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Line 5 crosses through the open water of the straits in twin pipelines that rest on the lake bottom in some stretches and are suspended above it in others. The route lies within an easement <a href="http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/michigan/files/201409/1953-04-23_Lakehead_Pipe_Line_Company_Easement_through_the_Straits_of_Mackinac.pdf">granted by the state of Michigan in 1953</a>. </p>
<p>The Straits of Mackinac are one of the most iconic settings in the Great Lakes. They include <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/the-straits-of-mackinac-connecting-people-places-and-so-much-more-msg20-nelson20">hundreds of islands and miles of shorelines</a> rimmed with forests and wetlands. Scenic Mackinac Island in Lake Huron, a <a href="https://www.michigan.org/city/mackinac-island">popular resort area</a> since the mid-1800s, is Michigan’s top tourist destination. </p>
<p>The straits also have long been <a href="https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/travel/michigan/2017/03/07/restoring-mackinac-islands-native-american-history/98809484/">spiritually important for Great Lakes tribes</a>. Michigan acknowledges that the Chippewa and Ottawa peoples <a href="https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2021/03/treaty-rights-line-5-oil-pipelines-controversial-history/">hold treaty-protected fishing rights</a> that center on the Mackinac region.</p>
<h2>The Line 6b spill</h2>
<p>In 2010, another Enbridge pipeline, Line 6b, <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/2020/07/10-years-ago-kalamazoo-river-oil-spill-was-an-awakening-in-pipeline-debate.html">ruptured near the Kalamazoo River in southern Michigan</a>, spilling over 1 million gallons of heavy crude. Line 6b is part of a parallel route to Line 5, and the cleanup continues <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/10-years-later-kalamazoo-river-spill-still-colors-enbridge-pipeline">more than a decade later</a>. </p>
<p>The spill, and Enbridge’s <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26062012/dilbit-diluted-bitumen-enbridge-kalamazoo-river-marshall-michigan-oil-spill-6b-pipeline-epa/">slow, bungled response and lack of transparency</a>, led to scrutiny of other Enbridge pipelines, <a href="https://www.nwf.org/%7E/media/pdfs/regional/great-lakes/nwf_sunkenhazard.ashx">including Line 5</a>.</p>
<p>In a 2014 analysis, University of Michigan oceanographer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wWTpqmEAAAAJ&hl=en">David J. Schwab</a> concluded that the Straits of Mackinac were the <a href="https://news.umich.edu/straits-of-mackinac-worst-possible-place-for-a-great-lakes-oil-spill-u-m-researcher-concludes/">“worst possible place</a>” for a Great Lakes oil spill because of high-speed currents that were unpredictable and reversed frequently. Within 20 days of a spill, Schwab estimated, oil could be carried up to 50 miles (80 kilometers) from the site into Lakes Michigan and Huron, fouling drinking water intakes, beaches and other critical areas.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ELlWwTF9PDs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This animated video created by David J. Schwab of the University of Michigan Water Center shows how an oil spill beneath the Straits of Mackinac could spread within the first 20 days.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This and other research intensified a burgeoning advocacy campaign by pipeline opponents, including <a href="https://www.oilandwaterdontmix.org/">regional and national environmental organizations</a>, <a href="https://earthjustice.org/feature/bay-mills-fighting-the-good-fight-to-protect-the-great-lakes-line-5-enbridge">Indigenous leaders and advocates</a>, and a newly formed network of <a href="https://glbusinessnetwork.com/">local and regional businesses</a>. </p>
<p>Pipeline supporters include the <a href="https://www.api.org/">American Petroleum Institute</a> and others in the fossil fuel industry, many <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/11/15/enbridge-line-5-shutdown-not-soon/6369707001/">conservative lawmakers</a>, several key <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-canada-pipelines-activists-idUSKBN2A11ED">labor unions</a> and the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-wisconsin-line-5-pipeline-1.6565809">government of Canada</a>. They argue that the current pipeline is safe, violates no federal laws and is a key piece of infrastructure that helps keep <a href="https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/line-5-michigan/about-line-5">energy costs low</a>.</p>
<h2>Michigan revokes its easement</h2>
<p>After years of scrutiny, including the formation of the <a href="https://mipetroleumpipelines.org/">Michigan Pipeline Safety Advisory Board</a> and two <a href="https://mipetroleumpipelines.org/document/independent-risk-analysis-straits-pipelines-final-report">expert reports</a> commissioned by the state, analyses showed that Enbridge was <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/2017/06/line_5_unsupported_spans.html">violating provisions of its easement</a>. Most notably, the section of Line 5 that ran under the straits lacked proper anchors and coating, <a href="https://michiganlcv.org/line5/">increasing the threat of a rupture</a>. The state concluded that the easement <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/public_trust_doctrine#:%7E:text=Public%20trust%20doctrine%20is%20a,waters%2C%20wildlife%2C%20or%20land.">violated the public trust doctrine</a> – the idea that government should protect certain natural resources, including waterways, for public use.</p>
<p>State reports concluded that the highest risk for rupture was from <a href="https://mipetroleumpipelines.org/document/independent-risk-analysis-straits-pipelines-final-report">anchor strikes</a>. Environmental nongovernment organizations found that Line 5 had already leaked <a href="https://www.nwf.org/-/media/Documents/PDFs/Press-Releases/2020/11-20-20-Line-5-Report">more than 1 million gallons</a> of oil and natural gas liquids. On April 1, 2018, a boat anchor struck the pipeline and <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/05/15/mackinac-enbridge-oil-pipeline-anchor-damage/3679013002/">nearly ruptured it</a>, temporarily shutting it down. </p>
<p>In 2019, Gov. Rick Snyder was succeeded by Gretchen Whitmer, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/14/gretchen-whitmer-enbridge-line-5-pipeline-mackinac-time-bomb/">who pledged in her campaign to close Line 5</a>. Seeking to avert a shutdown, Enbridge proposed building a tunnel beneath the lake bed to <a href="https://www.michiganradio.org/environment-science/2018-12-19/mackinac-straits-corridor-authority-approves-enbridge-tunnel-agreements">protect the pipeline</a>.</p>
<p>But after more analysis and <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/06/19/whitmer-line-5-shut-down-after-significant-damage-anchor-support/3225987001/">another anchor strike</a> that temporarily shut down the pipeline again, Whitmer issued an order in November 2020 <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/11/enbridge-line-5-ordered-shut-down-by-michigan-gov-whitmer.html">revoking Enbridge’s easement</a> and giving the company six months to close Line 5. The state <a href="https://casetext.com/case/michigan-v-enbridge-energy-ltd-pship">sought a court order</a> to support its decision.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1393293141256642562"}"></div></p>
<h2>Challenging state and tribal authority</h2>
<p>Instead of accepting state orders, <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/enbridge-michigan-we-wont-shut-down-line-5">Enbridge resisted</a>. The company argued that Michigan lacked authority to tell it how to manage the pipeline; that the project had not required an easement in 1953; and that building the tunnel would mitigate any risks. </p>
<p>Enbridge <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DJAw1cNSvCRGxOwJlFl5-U95VVr1jbSV/view">sued Michigan in federal court</a>, arguing that pipeline safety regulation was a federal issue and that the state had no authority to intervene in what was essentially <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMuK5LDlsF4">international commerce</a>.</p>
<p>Enbridge also faced pressure from the <a href="http://www.badriver-nsn.gov/">Bad River Tribe</a> in Wisconsin, where some 12 miles of the pipeline runs through the Bad River Band reservation and across the Bad River. Enbridge’s easement on parts of the reservation expired in 2013, and in 2017 the tribal council <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16012017/dakota-access-pipeline-standing-rock-enbridge-line-5-native-american-protest/">voted to evict Enbridge from their land</a>, calling the pipeline a threat to the river and their culture. </p>
<p>When Enbridge continued operating Line 5, the tribe <a href="https://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/7-23-19_lawsuit.pdf">sued the company in federal court</a> in 2019, charging it with trespass, unjust enrichment and other offenses, and sought to get the pipeline closed. </p>
<p>Today, Michigan’s case against Enbridge is <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/ag/news/press-releases/2023/03/03/attorney-general-nessel-asks-court-of-appeals-to-move-enbridge-case-back-to-michigan">bogged down in jurisdictional battles</a>. But on June 16, 2023, the federal judge overseeing the Bad River case <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/bad-river-vs-enbridge-pipeline-lawsuit-decision.pdf">ruled largely in favor of the tribe</a> and ordered Enbridge to stop operating the pipeline on tribal land within three years. Enbridge vowed to appeal the ruling, but is also seeking permits for a <a href="https://www.wpr.org/judge-orders-enbridge-shut-down-part-wisconsin-oil-pipeline-3-years">41-mile reroute</a> of Line 5 around the reservation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trudeau and Biden shake hands at the entrance to a stone building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542373/original/file-20230811-15-nv1ukl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, shown welcoming U.S. President Joe Biden to Ottawa on March 24, 2023, strongly supports Line 5, which carries Canadian oil and gas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenCanada/9c3b7f736a704947b4fc2b08c25532f6/photo">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A national precedent</h2>
<p>Line 5 is more than a Midwest issue. It has become a focus for <a href="https://narf.org/bay-mills-line5-pipeline/">national activism</a> and is a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-10/why-a-flowing-pipeline-has-canada-michigan-at-odds-quicktake?sref=Hjm5biAW">major diplomatic issue</a> between Canada and the U.S.
President Joe Biden, who has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/08/974365298/biden-faces-balancing-act-advancing-clean-energy-alongside-labor-allies">worked to balance</a> his ties with organized labor and his support for a clean energy transition, has avoided taking a side to date. </p>
<p>To continue operating Line 5, Enbridge will have to convince the courts that its interests and legal arguments outweigh those of an Indigenous nation and the state of Michigan. Never before has an active fossil fuel pipeline been closed due to potential environmental and cultural damage. </p>
<p>The outcome could set a precedent for other pipeline and fossil fuel infrastructure battles, from the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/27/supreme-court-mountain-valley-pipeline/">mid-Atlantic</a> to the <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2023/07/20/tcenergy-gtn-pipeline-expansion-northwest-climate-change/">Pacific Coast</a>. Ultimately, in my view, Line 5 is an under-the-radar but critical proxy battle for how, when and under what authority the phasing out of fossil fuels will proceed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Shriberg previously served from 2015-2022 as the Great Lakes Regional Executive Director for the National Wildlife Federation, where his position included grant and donor funding to work on issues related to the Line 5 pipeline. He also served as a gubernatorial appointee under former Gov. Rick Snyder to the Michigan Pipeline Safety Advisory Board.</span></em></p>A pipeline that has carried Canadian oil and gas across Wisconsin and Michigan for 70 years has become a symbol of fossil fuel politics and a test of local regulatory power.Mike Shriberg, Professor of Practice & Engagement, School for Environment & Sustainability, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2037452023-08-03T12:25:11Z2023-08-03T12:25:11ZUS preterm birth and maternal mortality rates are alarmingly high, outpacing those in all other high-income countries<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537367/original/file-20230713-19-6sry09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=183%2C15%2C4928%2C3395&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maternal and infant health crises are growing worse in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/black-mother-cuddling-sleeping-baby-son-on-sofa-royalty-free-image/758282421?phrase=african+american+baby+sleeping&adppopup=true">LWA/Dann Tardif/Digital Vision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every two minutes, in about the time it takes to read a page of your favorite book or brew a cup of coffee, a woman dies during pregnancy or childbirth, according to a <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240068759">February 2023 report</a> from the World Health Organization. The report reflects a shameful reality in which maternal deaths have either increased or plateaued worldwide between 2016 and 2020.</p>
<p>On top of that, of every 10 babies born, one is preterm – and every 40 seconds, <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/09-05-2023-152-million-babies-born-preterm-in-the-last-decade">one of those babies dies</a>. Globally, preterm birth is the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/preterm-birth#">leading cause</a> of death in children under the age of 5, with complications from preterm birth resulting in the death of 1 million children under age 5 each year. </p>
<p>The WHO has designated preterm birth an “<a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/15-11-2022-who-advises-immediate-skin-to-skin-care-for-survival-of-small-and-preterm-babies">urgent public health issue</a>” in recognition of the threat it poses to global health. </p>
<p>Those numbers reflect a worldwide problem, but the U.S. in particular has an abysmal record on both preterm births and maternal mortality: Despite significant medical advancements in recent years, the U.S. suffers from the <a href="https://tcf.org/content/commentary/worsening-u-s-maternal-health-crisis-three-graphs/">highest maternal mortality rate</a> among high-income countries globally. And the 2022 March of Dimes Report Card, an evaluation of maternal and infant health, gave the United States <a href="https://www.marchofdimes.org/peristats/reports/united-states/report-card">an extremely poor “D+” grade</a>. That data also revealed that the national preterm birth rate spiked to 10.5% in 2021, representing a record 15-year high. </p>
<p>We are maternal <a href="https://physiology.med.wayne.edu/profile/ad8024">fetal medicine experts</a> and <a href="https://womenshealth.wayne.edu/about/leadership/">scholars of women’s health</a> who focus on treatments and programs to help women have better maternal health, especially those that reduce preterm birth.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://womenshealth.wayne.edu/">Office of Women’s Health</a> leads the <a href="https://today.wayne.edu/medicine/news/2023/07/11/wsu-leads-statewide-network-to-combat-high-rates-of-pre-term-birth-53745?wonderplugin-box-action=READ+PRESS+RELEASE">SOS Maternity Network</a>, which stands for the Synergy of Scholars in Maternal and Infant Health Equity, a research alliance of maternal fetal medicine physicians across the state of Michigan. </p>
<p>Maternal and infant death are the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(20)30369-2">worst possible outcomes of pregnancy</a>. These numbers make clear just how crucial it is to change this trajectory and to ensure all Americans have practical access to quality reproductive health care.</p>
<h2>Dire state of maternal health care</h2>
<p>Tori Bowie, an elite Olympic athlete, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/13/1181971448/tori-bowie-an-elite-olympic-athlete-died-of-complications-from-childbirth">tragically lost her life</a> at just age 32 because of complications of pregnancy and childbirth. </p>
<p>Bowie’s story drives home the devastating state of maternal health in the U.S. Maternal mortality is a sad and unexpected ending to the often beautiful journey of pregnancy and childbirth. It means that a baby has to go without its mother’s love, care and comforting touch and at the same time the family has to mourn the sudden loss of their loved one. Unless substantial progress is made for lowering maternal deaths, the lives of over <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240068759">1 million more women</a> like Bowie could be at risk by the year 2030, if current trends continue. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the <a href="https://www.marchofdimes.org/peristats/reports/united-states/report-card">maternal and infant health crises are worsening</a> in the U.S., and this association is far from being an unfortunate coincidence. There is an important link between infant health and maternal health, as they both rely on the <a href="https://www.ajmc.com/view/us-has-highest-infant-maternal-mortality-rates-despite-the-most-health-care-spending">accessibility and quality of health care</a>. These U.S. rates have been increasing since 2018, when improved reporting of maternal deaths was adopted. </p>
<p>In 2020, the U.S. maternal mortality rate was 23.8 deaths per 100,000 live births – nearly three times as high as the country with the next-highest rate of 8.7 deaths per 100,000 live births, France.</p>
<p>The number of women who died within a year after pregnancy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.9043">more than doubled in the U.S.</a> over the 20-year period of 1999 to 2019. And there are significant racial disparities in this statistic: The highest number of pregnancy-related deaths were recorded among Black women, increasing from 26.7 per 100,000 births to 55.4 per 100,000 during that same time period. </p>
<p>Worse yet, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has determined that about <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/maternal-mortality/docs/pdf/Pregnancy-Related-Deaths-Data-MMRCs-2017-2019-H.pdf">84% of such maternal deaths</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-4-in-5-pregnancy-related-deaths-are-preventable-in-the-us-and-mental-health-is-the-leading-cause-193909">are preventable</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3fQaH6fLVxs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. maternal mortality rate for Black women is nearly three times higher than that of white women.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Tragic rates of infant mortality and preterm birth</h2>
<p>Notably, in 2020 the U.S. also experienced the <a href="https://www.ajmc.com/view/us-has-highest-infant-maternal-mortality-rates-despite-the-most-health-care-spending">highest infant mortality rate</a> of all high-income countries. The U.S infant mortality rate was 5.4 deaths per 1,000 live births, in contrast to the 1.6 deaths per 1,000 live births in Norway, the country with the lowest infant mortality rate. </p>
<p>You may have heard the term “preemie” before, perhaps when a loved one delivered a baby more than three weeks before the expected due date. A premature birth is one that occurs before the 37th week of pregnancy. Preterm-related causes are responsible for <a href="https://www.marchofdimes.org/peristats/reports/united-states/prematurity-profile">35.8% of infant deaths in the U.S</a>. </p>
<p>Preterm babies are often not fully physiologically prepared for delivery, which can result in a range of medical complications. While preterm births lead to rising infant mortality rates, even those who survive can face health problems such as breathing difficulties, problems with feeding, significant developmental delay and more <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/maternalinfanthealth/pretermbirth.htm#">throughout their lives</a>. Preterm birth also presents additional risks for the mother, as women who deliver preterm are at higher risk for cardiovascular complications later in life.</p>
<p>Thus, preterm birth <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD007235.pub4">takes a significant toll</a> on families and their communities, with serious ramifications in medical, social, psychological and financial contexts. </p>
<h2>Maternal care during pregnancy is key</h2>
<p>Maternal care appointments and screenings are essential to prevent prenatal complications and a women’s increased risk for developing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0000000000000961">long-term complications such as cardiovascular disease</a>. For that reason, patients should secure prenatal care as early as possible in the pregnancy and continue to regularly have prenatal care appointments. </p>
<p>Preterm birth can occur unexpectedly in an otherwise normal-seeming pregnancy. It looks no different from the early signs of a typical labor, except that it occurs before 37 weeks of pregnancy. The symptoms of premature labor can include contractions, unusual vaginal discharge, the feeling of pressure in the pelvic area, low dull backache or cramps in the uterus or abdomen. A person who experiences these symptoms during pregnancy should seek medical attention.</p>
<p>Some people are more predisposed to preterm birth based on individual risk factors like substance use, multiple pregnancy – such as twins – infections, race, a medical history of prior preterm delivery and heightened stress levels. Our research team and others have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14767058.2023.2199343">COVID-19 is a known risk factor</a> for preterm birth.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hCfyEM_aE2g?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Be aware of the risk factors for preterm birth.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s important to speak with your primary care provider to assess how your current health may affect future pregnancy and whether lifestyle changes – such as adopting a healthy diet and active lifestyle and avoiding smoking and drinking alcohol – can improve your likelihood of a full-term delivery.</p>
<h2>Preterm birth prevention</h2>
<p>The more that pregnant women take ownership of their health and ask their doctors to perform a simple cervical length screening during their pregnancy, the earlier preterm birth can be detected and prevented and the more lives will be saved.</p>
<p>Evidence has shown that patients with a short cervix face a greater risk of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.7673">cervix’s opening too early</a> in pregnancy, resulting in preterm birth and other adverse outcomes. The cervix is the lower section of the uterus, which connects to the vaginal canal. As pregnancy progresses, it stretches, softens and ultimately opens in the process of normal childbirth.</p>
<p>All patients – even those who are seemingly low risk – should ask their doctors to have their cervical length checked by transvaginal ultrasound during pregnancy between 19 and 24 weeks. A short cervical length indicates a high risk of a premature delivery. Luckily, there are treatments available, such as vaginal progesterone, which can prevent preterm birth in women found by ultrasound to have a short cervix. This treatment can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.9017">reduce the risk of preterm birth by more than 40%</a>.</p>
<p>We are optimistic that with greater awareness of these issues and a shift in the focus to evidence-based practices coupled with increased access to vulnerable populations, the U.S. can begin to give women like Bowie and so many others the health care they and their infants deserve. </p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to highlight the most recent trends in maternal mortality that were reported on July 3, 2023, and to highlight the stark racial disparities.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonia Hassan receives funding from Wayne State University. The Office of Women's Health receives funding from the Total Health Care Foundation and the Detroit Medical Center Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hala Ouweini does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A March of Dimes report gave the US a grade of D+ for maternal and infant health care, highlighting that the national preterm birth rate hit 10.5% in 2021, a record 15-year high.Sonia Hassan, Professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Maternal Fetal Medicine, Wayne State UniversityHala Ouweini, Research Associate in Women's Health, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095682023-07-13T12:37:12Z2023-07-13T12:37:12ZClimate change is increasing stress on thousands of aging dams across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536900/original/file-20230711-19-5at0w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood damage in Edenville, Mich., after a dam failed on May 19, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MidwestFlooding/29e7a5cbb920467d9c1b84db02553cd0/photo">AP Photo/Carlos Osorio</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Heavy rainfall in the Northeast on June 9-11, 2023, <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2023/07/11/montpelier-vermont-floods-possible-dam-breach/">generated widespread flooding</a>, particularly in New York’s Hudson Valley and in Vermont. One major concern was the <a href="https://dec.vermont.gov/water-investment/dam-safety/dec-owned-dams#Wrightsville%20Dam">Wrightsville Dam</a>, built in 1935 on the Winooski River north of Vermont’s capital city, Montpelier. The reservoir behind the dam rose to within 1 foot of the dam’s maximum storage capacity, prompting warnings that water could <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2023/07/11/montpelier-vermont-floods-possible-dam-breach/">overtop the dam</a> and worsen already-dangerous conditions downstream, or damage the dam.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1IjEUscAAAAJ&hl=en">Hiba Baroud</a>, associate professor and associate chair in the department of civil and environmental engineering at Vanderbilt University, explains how flooding stresses dams in a changing climate.</em></p>
<h2>How serious is the risk when flooding overtops a dam?</h2>
<p>Dam overtopping can result in erosion, which subsequently could lead to a dam breach or failure and a sudden, uncontrolled release of impounded water.</p>
<p>The risk of dam overtopping results from the combined effect of a hazardous event, such as heavy rainfall, and the vulnerability of the dam. A vulnerable dam could be old, poorly maintained or not have enough <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/spillway-engineering">spillway capacity</a> to safely release water from the dam.</p>
<p>A dam’s design can affect its ability to withstand overtopping and resist failure. For example, concrete dams can typically better withstand certain levels of overtopping compared to soil embankment dams. </p>
<p>Overtopping is the leading cause of dam failures in the U.S. It accounts for <a href="https://damsafety.org/dam-failures#The%20Causes%20of%20Dam%20Failures">34% of all dam failures</a>. How long water flows over a dam and the volume of water that flows over it are important factors in determining the likelihood that a dam will fail. </p>
<p>The consequences of a dam overtopping, and possibly failing, depend on several factors, such as the purpose of the dam, its size and its location. If a dam is designed for flood protection and is surrounded by homes, businesses or critical infrastructure, a large uncontrolled release of water could be catastrophic. Dams that are small and located in rural areas may cause less damage if they are overtopped or fail. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1678798286939881472"}"></div></p>
<h2>How old are most US dams?</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://nid.sec.usace.army.mil/#/">more than 91,000 dams</a> across the U.S., in all 50 states, with diverse designs and purposes. The average dam age is 60 years, and more than 8,000 dams <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/problem-america-neglected-too-long-deteriorating-dams">are over 90 years old</a>. </p>
<p>Every four years, the <a href="https://www.asce.org/">American Society of Civil Engineers</a> produces a report card for the nation’s infrastructure that assigns grades based on the condition of structures like roads, bridges and dams, and the investments that they need. The most recent report card estimates that 70% of U.S. dams <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/dams-infrastructure/">will be more than 50 years old by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Overall, the report gave U.S. dams a “D” grade and estimated that more than 2,300 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/risk-management/dam-safety/rehabilitation-high-hazard-potential-dams">high hazard potential dams</a> – those that could cause loss of life or serious property damage if they fail, based on the level of development around them – lacked emergency action plans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WrTp3JDG9Fs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This video captures the failure of the 90-year-old central spillway of the Lake Dunlap Dam in Seguin, Texas, on May 14, 2019. The collapse led to lawsuits and the creation of a water control district to replace the dam and others like it nearby.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are there ways to strengthen older dams against flooding without completely replacing them?</h2>
<p>Decommissioning or replacing dams can be complicated and cost-prohibitive. It also can have cascading effects on the surrounding community, and possibly on other infrastructure. Regularly maintaining and upgrading older dams can be a cost-effective way to strengthen them and make them resilient to natural hazards. </p>
<p>When dams no longer serve the purposes for which they were built, they may be partially breached or <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-dams-cause-more-problems-than-they-solve-removing-them-can-pay-off-for-people-and-nature-137346">entirely removed</a> to restore the river’s natural flow. </p>
<p>The Association of State Dam Safety Officials estimates that it would cost <a href="https://damsafety-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/files/2023%20ASDSO%20Costs%20of%20Dam%20Rehab%20Report.pdf">US$157.7 billion</a> to rehabilitate all nonfederal dams in the U.S. Of this amount, about one-fifth ($34.1 billion) is for rehabilitating high hazard potential dams. The 2021 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> includes <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text">approximately $3 billion</a> for dam safety projects, focusing on rehabilitation, retrofitting and removal.</p>
<h2>Is climate change increasing stress on older dams?</h2>
<p>Climate change is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">increasing the frequency and intensity</a> of natural hazards like storms that threaten dams. And these shifts don’t follow historical trends. Conditions that once were considered extreme will likely be more common in the future. </p>
<p>For example, one recent study on predicting coastal flooding found that in New England, a 100-year flood – that’s an event of a magnitude that now has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z">could become an annual occurrence</a> by the late 2100s. </p>
<p>The fact that the climate is changing also means that extreme events are becoming more extreme. In 2015, a 1,000-year rainfall event in South Carolina resulted in <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/9780784480458.024">breaches of 47 dams</a>. </p>
<p>Designing new dams and upgrading existing infrastructure will need to be based on updated design procedures that take into account future climate projections, not just historical hazardous events. While older dams aren’t necessarily unsafe, they were constructed following outdated design standards and construction procedures and for different environmental conditions. That influences the likelihood and consequences of their failure during disasters. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jxNM4DGBRMU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The near-failure of California’s Oroville Dam in February 2017 led to the evacuation of nearly 190,000 people living downstream. A review cited multiple causes, including design and construction flaws, the bedrock upon which the dam was built and lapses in ongoing inspections.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Do you see this event in Vermont as a warning for other communities?</h2>
<p>The disasters that have hit the U.S. in recent years should spur government agencies and communities to prepare and plan for disasters through proactive steps such as developing emergency action plans. </p>
<p>While the number of high hazard potential dams in the U.S. has <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Dams-2021.pdf">more than doubled in the last 20 years</a> as development has moved farther into rural areas, the proportion of these dams with an emergency action plan has also increased. <a href="https://nid.sec.usace.army.mil/#/">It is now at 76%</a>, which is much higher than just a few years ago.</p>
<p>Vulnerable dams and the risk of dam failure cascade through our economy and affect many sectors. Dams serve many purposes: They provide water for drinking and irrigation, generate energy and protect communities from flooding. They are also part of a large navigation network that transports <a href="https://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/Missions/Value-to-the-Nation/Fast-Facts/Inland-Navigation-Fast-Facts/">more than 500 million tons of commodities</a> across the U.S. each year. </p>
<p>As my colleagues and I have shown, it’s important to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12223">understand the direct and indirect costs</a> when critical infrastructure systems like dams fail. This information is crucial for developing strategies that can help the U.S. prepare for future disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209568/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hiba Baroud receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>More extreme rainfall and frequent storms are raising the risk that floodwaters could spill over dams, or that dams could fail.Hiba Baroud, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2047812023-06-27T12:22:29Z2023-06-27T12:22:29ZCOVID-19 hurt kids’ math learning more than reading and writing – with the biggest setbacks in fall 2020<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531164/original/file-20230609-27-i49xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The pandemic's effect on student learning could exacerbate racial and economic achievement gaps.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/adolescent-girl-on-her-computer-at-home-doing-royalty-free-image/1368081389">Laura Olivas/Moment Collection/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic had a stark negative impact on students’ math scores, <a href="https://epicedpolicy.org/wp-the-path-of-student-learning-delay-during-covid-19/">new data from Michigan shows</a>. Math achievement growth over the three-year period from spring 2019 through spring 2022 was substantially lower – approximately 7 national percentiles – than among comparable students the three years prior.</p>
<p>There were even larger decreases among students who are Black or Latino, low income or who attended the <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/annualreports/topical-studies/covid/">majority of schools that taught remotely</a> for at least part of the 2020-2021 academic year.</p>
<p>Effects on scores for English language arts, which include reading and writing, were small and generally not statistically significant.</p>
<p>To arrive at these findings, we looked at individual test scores and other data from Michigan.</p>
<p>First we looked at how math and English language arts test scores on Michigan’s annual statewide <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/mde/services/student-assessment/m-step">M-STEP exam</a> grew between 2019 and 2022 for a group of students in third grade through fifth grade in spring 2019. </p>
<p>We compared these students’ test score growth with growth achieved by similar students who were in those same grades three years earlier, before the pandemic began. This provides us with a broad view of the impact of the pandemic on school learning as measured through test scores. </p>
<p>We also looked at scores from a series of benchmark tests taken between fall 2020 and spring 2022 to measure how achievement growth changed within each school year <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/09/health/covid-19-pandemic-timeline-fast-facts/index.html">leading up to and following the height of the pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>While other studies also show how the <a href="https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/gpl_reports/41/">pandemic set back student achievement</a>, our research looks at how achievement was affected over the course of the pandemic rather than just the end result. And the picture is pretty clear: Using a set of exams given at the beginning and end of each school year, we found a large drop in achievement between fall 2020 and spring 2021.</p>
<p>While student achievement began to improve in spring 2021, that recovery has been too slow to enable students to reach pre-pandemic expectations for test scores.</p>
<p>And, just as Black, Latino and low-income students suffered the largest drops in test scores during the pandemic, their math recovery has also slightly lagged behind white students and students who were more affluent.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>This study adds to the research on how the pandemic appears to have exacerbated racial and economic achievement gaps. These gaps are important because lower achievement among disadvantaged groups could lead to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/2023/01/23/college-enrollment-gaps-how-academic-preparation-influences-opportunity/">lower college enrollment rates</a> and, in turn, <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/publications/economic-commentary/2012/ec-201210-the-college-wage-premium">lower earnings</a>. </p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>Research is starting to show how quickly students are recovering and whether students are catching up at a rate fast enough to overcome pandemic learning disruptions. Some interventions, such as <a href="https://caldercenter.org/sites/default/files/CALDER%20WP%20275-1222.pdf">tutoring and after-school programming</a>, are in place to attempt to speed up the recovery, but we do not yet know how effective they are.</p>
<p>We also don’t know for sure why there were disproportionate learning delays in math relative to English language arts. One possibility is that families found it easier to supplement reading instruction at home compared to math.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Our next study looks at how the pandemic affected how students were identified for special education services. We are assessing how the inability to have in-person contact between teachers, school professionals and students made it <a href="https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2021/11/18/22789162/special-education-referral-drop-nyc">harder to assess</a> and <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/2023/5/24/23736774/special-education-early-intervention-services-preschool-pandemic">serve students</a> who might benefit from special education. Delays in access to these services could have substantially affected their academic, developmental and behavioral progress.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott A Imberman receives funding from the Institute for Education Sciences, US Department of Education.The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not represent views of the Institute or the U.S. Department of Education.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharine O. Strunk receives funding from the Institute for Education Sciences of the U.S. Department of Education, the State of Michigan, and several philanthropic foundations. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the views of any of the organizations that fund Dr. Strunk's research. </span></em></p>A new analysis of standardized test scores from elementary schools in Michigan pinpoints when during the pandemic students fell most behind.Scott A Imberman, Professor of Economics and Education Policy, Michigan State UniversityKatharine O. Strunk, Professor of Education Policy and Economics, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999122023-02-14T20:12:34Z2023-02-14T20:12:34ZMichigan State murders: What we know about campus shootings and the gunmen who carry them out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510084/original/file-20230214-18-a2gi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C197%2C5964%2C3790&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A tent covers the body of the alleged gunman at Michigan State University.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MIchiganStateShooting/5d026dc1ff3a4a47b72949b33930fbf7/photo?Query=Michigan%20State%20University&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1200&currentItemNo=10">AP Photo/Carlos Osorio</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A gunman <a href="https://apnews.com/article/colleges-and-universities-michigan-education-shootings-153ab68bc4f108c2019bb138de2dc8fb">opened fire at Michigan State University</a> on Feb. 13, 2023, killing three people and injuring five others before taking his own life.</em></p>
<p><em>A lot is still unknown about the campus attack. Police have yet to release a motive and said the 43-year-old man responsible <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/14/us/michigan-state-university-shooting.html">did not have any known connections</a> to the university.</em></p>
<p><em>While rare, campus attacks are not unheard of in the U.S. In November 2022, three members of the University of Virginia football team <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/16/us/university-of-virginia-shooting-wednesday/index.html">were shot and killed on campus</a>, and four University of Idaho students were <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/idaho-murders-update-university-of-idaho-college-students-investigation-bryan-kohberger/">stabbed to death</a> in their off-campus residence.</em></p>
<p><em>Criminologists <a href="https://ccie.ucf.edu/person/david-riedman/">David Riedman of the University of Central Florida</a> and <a href="https://www.metrostate.edu/about/directory/james-densley">James Densley, at Metropolitan State University</a>, <a href="https://k12ssdb.org/">maintain databases</a> <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/">of mass shootings</a> in the U.S. The Conversation asked them how the latest attack fit with the pattern of such attacks in the past.</em></p>
<h2>How frequent are campus shootings at colleges and universities?</h2>
<p>No agency is tracking every U.S. campus shooting in real time, and defining them can be difficult because many higher education institutions are intertwined with the surrounding community. For example, Michigan State University has over 50,000 students enrolled and <a href="https://studentlife.umich.edu/article/michigan-housing">more than 11,000 residing</a> on its <a href="https://mobility.msu.edu/campus-ecosystem/index.html">main campus</a>, which is made up of more than 8 square miles (21 square kilometers) of contiguous urban, suburban, industrial and rural areas. </p>
<p>Technically, a shooting in the parking lot during a college football game attended by 100,000 people or at a residence that leases to college students could be classed as a college or university shooting.</p>
<p>We do, however, have data on mass shootings on campus.</p>
<p>There have been nine mass shootings in or around college or university settings since 1966, according to <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooter-database/">The Violence Project database</a>, which defines a mass shooting as one in which four or more people are murdered in public in a single incident. This would not include the Michigan State University shooting at this stage, or many other incidents in which fewer people than four were killed. It also doesn’t include the <a href="https://www.kent.edu/may-4-historical-accuracy">1970 Kent State massacre</a> in which four students were shot dead by the Ohio National Guard. </p>
<p><iframe id="ifPP5" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ifPP5/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The most deadly of these mass shootings was the <a href="https://www.weremember.vt.edu/">2007 attack by a student at Virginia Tech</a> in which 32 people were killed. Since then, there have been five more mass shootings, the last being in 2015 when a 26-year-old student at Umpqua Community College near Roseburg, Oregon, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/emergency-officials-say-active-shooter-oregon-community-college-campus">fatally shot a professor and 8 students</a> in a classroom.</p>
<p>In all the campus mass shootings in the database, the gunman was a man, with an average age of 28. The youngest was 22 and the oldest was 43. Six of the nine perpetrators were nonwhite.</p>
<h2>What do we know about campus shooters in general?</h2>
<p>College and university shooters typically have a prior connection to the campuses they target. For example, a shooter who killed three people and wounded three others at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2010 was a <a href="https://www.waff.com/2020/02/11/whats-changed-years-after-deadly-uah-shootings/">biology faculty member with a history of violence</a> who had recently been denied tenure.</p>
<p>It is unclear why the latest shooter targeted Michigan State, and because he died on the scene, we may never know for sure.</p>
<p>But the fact that he took his life after the attacks is not unusual. Five of the nine college mass shooters in our data died by suicide. Our <a href="https://www.abramsbooks.com/product/violence-project_9781419752964/">research shows</a> mass shootings are often a form of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/01/26/opinion/us-mass-shootings-despair.html">suicide driven by despair</a>. </p>
<p>Mass shooters also tend to be boys and men in a noticeable crisis who <a href="http://doi.org/doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.33073">communicate intent to do harm</a> in advance. If family, friends and co-workers know the <a href="https://www.sandyhookpromise.org/blog/teacher-resources/know-the-signs-of-gun-violence/">warning signs</a> of violence and how to report them, there is an opportunity to stop it from occurring. In December 2021, for example, students at <a href="https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/crime/2021/12/09/police-embry-riddle-student-planned-mass-shooting-school/6450911001/">Embry-Riddle University warned campus officials of violent threats a fellow student had made on Snapchat</a> and helped avert a potential shooting tragedy.</p>
<h2>Was the police operation typical of similar shootings?</h2>
<p>Between the first alert at 8:31 p.m. <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/michigan/2023/02/14/timeline-of-michigan-state-university-shootings-search-for-suspect/">telling Michigan State students to “run, hide and fight</a>” where necessary, and the police news conference confirming the gunman’s death at 12:20 a.m., a lot of misinformation circulated online amid confusion on campus.</p>
<p>There were two shootings within minutes at Berkey Hall, an academic building on the northern part of campus, and the MSU Union Building, west of Berkey Hall, but <a href="https://twitter.com/K12ssdb/status/1625343222171009026?s=20&t=ofeZejua7Y4_mu0lAmiiuQ">police also received calls</a> about shots fired at seven other campus locations. Law enforcement were sent scrambling across the university campus only to find no other evidence of shootings.</p>
<p>Police also responded to reports of men on campus with rifles that <a href="https://twitter.com/K12ssdb/status/1625339441081462786?s=20&t=ofeZejua7Y4_mu0lAmiiuQ">turned out to be plainclothes police officers</a>, and the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/michigan-shooter-gunman-lynne-dee-walker-wrong-fake-hoax-1781034">name and photo of an alleged suspect</a> circulated online that turned out to be false.</p>
<p>Mass public shootings are chaotic scenes, and the confusion at Michigan State was similar to the 2017 <a href="https://medium.com/homeland-security/commanding-is-not-communicating-c9f28e87caff">Las Vegas Harvest Festival</a> shooting in which 60 people were killed by a single gunman. In that attack, officers received dozens of incorrect reports about who and where the shooter was.</p>
<p>This loss of what is known as a “common operating picture” – a single, consistent, display of relevant information – was cited as one of the <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/download/?file=/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/CommissionRecommendations.pdf">critical issues for first responders to address</a> in the 9/11 Commission Report released in 2004. It continues to be an issue today, exacerbated in part by social media.</p>
<h2>What can college students and staff do today?</h2>
<p>The immediate focus should be on providing services for survivors, and the families of those who died. The trauma of experiencing or witnessing a shooting can have <a href="https://miningquiz.com/pdf/Mass_Shootings/The-Mental-Health-Consequences-of-Mass-Shootings.pdf">lasting psychological impacts</a>, including post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression. Survivors may also face <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/11/us/survivors-mass-shootings-costs/index.html">physical injuries, long-term disabilities and financial burdens</a> related to medical treatment and recovery.</p>
<p>Mass shootings have <a href="https://www.apa.org/monitor/2022/09/news-mass-shootings-collective-traumas">far-reaching and devastating effects that extend to communities and society as a whole</a>, including increased fear and anxiety, social isolation, and a sense of helplessness and despair. Supporting the survivors and victims of mass shootings means providing them with the resources and support needed to heal and recover, while also working to prevent future acts of gun violence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Riedman receives funding from Everytown for Gun Safety.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Densley has received funding from the National Institute of Justice and the Joyce Foundation.</span></em></p>A gunman at Michigan State University shot dead three people before taking his own life. Two criminologists explain how the incident fits a pattern of campus attacks.David Riedman, Ph.D. student in Criminal Justice and Creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, University of Central FloridaJames Densley, Professor of Criminal Justice, Metropolitan State University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1941402022-11-09T22:33:15Z2022-11-09T22:33:15ZIn first nationwide election since Roe was overturned, voters opt to protect abortion access<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494537/original/file-20221109-21-3148v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C444%2C8194%2C5042&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in Michigan said 'yes' to Prop 3, a ballot protecting abortion rights.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/proposal-3-stickers-are-displayed-for-volunteers-at-the-news-photo/1439552294?phrase=abortion%20midterm&adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first major election since the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade</a> saw abortion rights on the ballot <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-abortion.html">in a record number of states</a>. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment">outcomes of these initiatives suggest</a> that when Kansas voters in August 2022 rejected a proposed constitutional amendment declaring there is no state right to abortion, it was not a fluke.</p>
<p>Indeed, results following the close of polls on Nov. 8 revealed that voters in Kentucky had followed suit and rejected a similar constitutional amendment. And in three other states — California, Michigan and Vermont — voters approved constitutional amendments to safeguard abortion access as part of a broader protection of personal reproductive autonomy, including contraception. In Vermont, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-abortion.html">margin of victory was sweeping</a>: 77.2% to 22.8%, with 95% of votes in.</p>
<p>In Montana, where restrictive abortion laws already prohibit post-viability abortions – that is, those after 24 weeks of pregnancy – voters <a href="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/62/fd/c2a1150c481fb245d9e81585ada3/lr-131-ballot-statement-language-1.pdf">rejected a referendum</a> that threatened doctors with criminal penalties of up to 20 years in prison if they did not try to sustain the life of a fetus “born alive” after an abortion. </p>
<p>All told, the outcome of the initiatives underscores the crucial role of state law after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling returned the issue of abortion access back to “the people” and the states.</p>
<h2>Abortion on the ballot and the campaign trail</h2>
<p>But abortion was also “on the ballot” indirectly – in key state and federal elections in which abortion appeared to have been a campaign issue.</p>
<p>In Pennsylvania, Democrat Josh Shapiro, the state’s Attorney General, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/josh-shapiro-declared-winner-2022-pennsylvania-governor-midterm-electi-rcna55169">won the race for governor over</a> Republican Doug Mastriano, and Democrat John Fetterman defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz for the available U.S. Senate seat. Access to abortion care and protecting abortion rights were key themes in Shapiro’s campaign, while Mastriano stressed culture war issues. <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/news/election-day-pennsylvania-abortion-reproductive-rights-voters-20221108.html">Commentary and exit polling suggest</a> that abortion was a motivating issue among Pennsylvania voters – especially younger voters. </p>
<p>In New York, where Governor Kathy Hochul defeated Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, the Democrat incumbent billed herself as “the reason why abortion is protected in New York” and <a href="https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2022/11/02/hochul-says-she-s-a-bulwark-for-abortion-rights-in-new-york">stressed a governor’s “immense” power</a> to affect abortion rights.</p>
<p>Exit polls indicate <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/midterm-elections-exit-polls-live-updates/?id=92683687">60% of voters nationwide</a> – up 9% since 2020 – believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.</p>
<p>A majority – 60% – of voters <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/midterm-elections-exit-polls-live-updates/?id=92683687">expressed anger</a> at the Supreme Court over the Dobbs ruling and indicated that they trusted the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party on the issue by a margin of 52% to 42%. These sentiments played out in the election results. For example, in New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan held onto her Senate seat against a Republican challenger, Don Bolduc, who called the Dobbs ruling <a href="https://www.wmur.com/article/hassan-bolduc-new-hampshire-us-senate-debate/41849758#">a reason to “rejoice</a>.” And 35% of New Hampshire voters <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/midterm-elections-exit-polls-live-updates/?id=92683687">said abortion was their top issue</a>, behind only inflation at 36%. Polls also show a gender gap, with more women than men reporting abortion as their top issue.</p>
<h2>More state battles over abortion?</h2>
<p>Ballot initiatives are likely to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/11/abortion-rights-advocates-eye-ballot-measures-2024/">continue into the 2024 presidential election</a> given voters’ response on Tuesday.</p>
<p>The midterm elections point toward protecting access to abortion, more so than preelection polls suggested they would.</p>
<p>As of this writing, the House and Senate hang in the balance, yet federal bills that would protect or restrict access to abortion were already unlikely to become laws given that the Supreme Court has <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-it-mean-to-codify-roe-into-law-and-is-there-any-chance-of-that-happening-182406">indicated states should decide their own laws</a>. This means state laws remain on the front line, and the midterm election was just a “hold the line” moment. </p>
<p>Most states have not yet had legislative sessions or elections, and most candidacies were declared before Dobbs was decided. The midterm elections didn’t make the landscape worse for access to care – indeed, the right to abortion care was expanded, or least protected in some places. But the <a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/abortion-in-the-u-s-dashboard/">high variability of state laws</a> will mean that <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-idaho-protect-reproductive-rights">conflicts continue both among states, and between states and the federal government</a>.</p>
<p>Patient and provider confusion will likely continue, given the high degree of state law variability, which will <a href="https://www.smfm.org/repro">limit access to care and increase risks</a> in some states.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Abortion rights were on the ballot in five states during the midterm elections – all broke in favor of abortion-rights advocates.Linda C. McClain, Professor of Law, Boston UniversityNicole Huberfeld, Edward R. Utley Professor of Health Law and Professor of Law, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892912022-08-25T12:26:58Z2022-08-25T12:26:58ZConviction of two Michigan kidnap plotters highlights danger of violent conspiracies to US democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480921/original/file-20220824-4026-dyadxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2492%2C1543&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Barry Croft Jr., left, and Adam Fox were found guilty by a federal jury on charges related to a 2020 plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MichiganGovernorKidnappingPlot/10d99e1d3dd947439c5ff1ad52c40af6/photo">Kent County Sheriff's Office via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two of the six men facing federal charges in a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2020 were <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/23/us/verdict-trial-gretchen-whitmer-kidnap.html">found guilty</a> by a federal jury on Aug. 23, 2022. </p>
<p>The verdict in the trial of co-defendants Adam Fox and Barry Croft Jr. comes after a previous trial ended in <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2022/04/08/2-men-found-not-guilty-mistrial-declared-for-2-others-in-whitmer-kidnap-plot-trial/">acquittals</a> for two other co-defendants, Daniel Harris and Brandon Caserta, and mistrials for Fox and Croft. Their two other alleged accomplices, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gretchen-whitmer-kidnapping-ty-garbin-pleads-guilty/">Ty Garbin</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/07/politics/whitmer-kidnap-plot-kaleb-franks-guilty-plea/index.html">Kaleb Franks</a>, pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with the prosecutions against the others.</p>
<p>All six were members of the Wolverine Watchmen, a militia group in Michigan who felt compelled to act against Whitmer’s COVID-19 restrictions. Several other members of the Watchmen <a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/jackson/2022/04/trial-scheduled-for-jackson-county-men-accused-in-whitmer-kidnapping-plot.html">still face state charges</a> for their alleged roles in the kidnapping plot.</p>
<p>Observers like <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=5nxIh9YAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">me</a> knew relatively little about the Wolverine Watchmen when the men were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-michigan-whitmer-idUKKBN26T37C">first arrested</a> in October 2020. I have studied the U.S. domestic militia movement <a href="https://www.amycooter.com/research.html">for 12 years</a>. I have learned about general militia structures, and I have conducted in-depth interviews and done <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/98077">extensive fieldwork</a> with militia groups. I have long-standing contacts who have informed my understanding of groups. And still, I do not believe it’s possible to know the full extent of the defendants’ intentions or abilities.</p>
<p>But I do know that violent threats and plots need to be treated seriously – especially those that focus on specific people and their supposed tyranny. </p>
<p>It will also be important to observe how militias and related groups respond to these convictions: Claims that the judicial process was corrupt have already surfaced, which could fuel <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/70-percent-republicans-falsely-believe-stolen-election-trump/">additional mistrust in American political systems</a> as the nation heads into midterm congressional elections. </p>
<h2>What is this group, and where did it come from?</h2>
<p>In 2020, <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-embedding-with-the-michigan-militia-5-questions-answered-about-the-group-allegedly-plotting-to-kidnap-a-governor-147876">reports from my militia contacts and other sources</a> indicated the Wolverine Watchmen had split off from the larger <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/24/the-militias-against-masks">Michigan Liberty Militia</a>, which had featured prominently in an April 2020 Michigan <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-michigan-whitmer-idUKKBN26T37C">state lockdown protest</a> that garnered national attention. </p>
<p>The Wolverine Watchmen appear to be a type of militia called “millenarian,” which tends to be dangerous, secretive, <a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/opinion/far-right-groups-and-conspiracy-theories-are-being-brought-together-through-internet">conspiracy-oriented</a> and anti-government. This is in contrast with the other type of militia unit – “constitutionalist” – whose members still train with firearms but take a much more defensive, rather than offensive, stance toward the government.</p>
<p>The exact cause of the split is not clear, but I have witnessed in my work that fractures are exceedingly common in militia groups because of personality conflicts or disputes over a group’s goals and plans, as well as whether their actions are private or in public.</p>
<p>In a similar vein, it also appears that Adam Fox, the plot’s alleged mastermind, had been <a href="https://www.michiganradio.org/news/2020-10-12/michigan-militia-groups-try-to-distance-themselves-from-alleged-terrorist-plot">kicked out</a> of yet another militia group called the Michigan Home Guard before joining the Watchmen. Public reports of this incident match what militia informants have reported to me about Fox’s volatility both in person and on social media.</p>
<p>Other members may have been recruited to the Watchmen at <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/03/29/whitmer-kidnap-jury-wolverine-watchmen/7207466001/">multimilitia events</a> the unit was known to attend or even host. Insiders tell me that some members may have followed Fox when the Home Guard largely dissolved following one leader’s participation in a <a href="https://m.facebook.com/60minutes/videos/when-he-says-stand-by-what-does-he-want-what-is-he-planning-on-having-us-stand-b/366649564660607/">“60 Minutes” interview</a> that was perceived as harmful to the militia movement.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Armed men stand on the steps of the Michigan capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On April 30, 2020, armed men wearing ‘Michigan Liberty Militia’ insignias stood on the steps of the state Capitol building as part of a protest against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown orders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/armed-protesters-provide-security-as-demonstrators-take-news-photo/1211395465">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are their aims or goals?</h2>
<p>Several of those initially charged are affiliated with the <a href="https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-evolution-of-the-boogaloo-movement/">Boogaloo</a> movement, a loose ideology whose adherents seek to foster <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-white-supremacists-protesting-the-deaths-of-black-people-140046">varying degrees of social upheaval</a>, often through attacks on law enforcement or other government representatives.</p>
<p>Watchmen commander and co-founder Joseph Morrison, for example, included “Boogaloo” as part of his <a href="https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/26380/meet_boogaloo_bunyan_founder_of_michigan_militia_that_plotted_to_overthrow_government">online handle</a>. </p>
<p>Boogaloo ideology is not synonymous with millenarianism but is much more similar than it is to the more reserved constitutionalist outlook. Boogaloo shares with millenarianism a desire for violence and disruption, and both perspectives can be further incited by a <a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/opinion/far-right-groups-and-conspiracy-theories-are-being-brought-together-through-internet">variety of conspiracy fantasies</a>, such as those that enhance believers’ perceptions of political opponents as not just wrong-thinking, but evil. </p>
<p>Co-conspirator Ty Garbin <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/star-witness-whitmer-kidnap-plotters-wanted-boogaloo-war-stop-biden">testified</a> that the ultimate goal of the kidnapping plot was “to cause as much disruption as possible to prevent Joe Biden from getting into office.” </p>
<p>Garbin’s stated focus specifically on Biden – and, by default, ensuring a continued Trump presidency – would imply that the Watchmen did not want to completely overthrow the government but instead retain a leader who met their approval. </p>
<p>Prosecutors, however, used even stronger language than Garbin in the second federal trial, <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/08/11/moar-a11.html">asserting</a> that Croft and Fox wanted to start a “second American Revolution.” This is a variation of a goal at the extreme end of the Boogaloo spectrum: to initiate a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-extremists/u-s-capitol-siege-emboldens-motley-crew-of-extremists-idUSL1N2JJ0A0">second civil war</a>. </p>
<p>Despite the common disdain for Whitmer and government COVID-19 policies that brought these men together, they had ideological differences, too. </p>
<p>Brandon Caserta, for example, posted an <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-tyrant-not-your-friend-says-suspect-governor-whitmer-kidnapping-plot-1537821">anti-Trump video</a>, while Daniel Harris had previously <a href="https://oaklandcounty115.com/2020/06/08/lake-orion-protest-affirms-black-lives-matter-movement/">protested</a> against police brutality and in support of Black Lives Matter. </p>
<p>I have observed some online commentators dismiss those actions as tactical maneuvers to make militias seem less exclusionary than they really are. However, in my experience, militia members hold a complex array of personal beliefs, including support for racial equality that is sincere even if <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/citizen-militias-in-the-u-s-are-moving-toward-more-violent-extremism/">not entirely informed</a> about the full scope of modern racism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After the arrests were announced in 2020, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer spoke to the public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MichiganGovernorKidnappingPlot/37be31aef6d244d488394d44506fc23f/photo">Michigan Office of the Governor via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Were they a serious threat?</h2>
<p>Questions remain among some militia members and their supporters about the seriousness of the Watchmen’s plot. At the time of their arrests, militia members who knew some of the defendants <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-embedding-with-the-michigan-militia-5-questions-answered-about-the-group-allegedly-plotting-to-kidnap-a-governor-147876">told me they doubted</a> their ability to actually execute the complicated plan. </p>
<p>While I continue to hear disparaging remarks about Croft and Fox in particular, most of the skeptical focus has since shifted to the integrity of the investigation. </p>
<p>The defense team in the original trial argued the plot was actually the creation of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/19/michigan-governor-kidnap-case-terrorists-fbi-dupes-gretchen-whitmer">undercover agents or informants</a> involved in the investigation. The first jury <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/08/michigan-whitmer-verdict-governor/">may have found this argument persuasive</a> for Harris’ and Caserta’s acquittals, but it seems to have fallen short as an explanation for Fox and Croft in both trials.</p>
<p>Militia supporters have nonetheless noted that some texts and other communications from informants were <a href="https://wwmt.com/news/local/governor-gretchen-whitmer-michigan-kidnapping-kidnap-kill-plot-barry-croft-adam-fox-grand-rapids-mistrial-fbi-evidence-mistrial-second-trial-conspiracy">not shared</a> with jurors in either federal case, a fact they believe supports defense attorneys’ arguments that FBI agents engaged in entrapment. </p>
<p>And some supporters of the defendants have raised concerns about the <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kenbensinger/fbi-michigan-kidnap-whitmer">background and behavior of FBI agents</a> who were involved in the case, apparently seeking to impeach their credibility. One agent was arrested for <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2021/07/21/records-fbi-agent-assaulted-wife-swingers-party-gretchen-whitmer-terror-plot/8041014002/">violently assaulting his wife</a>, while yet another was removed from the list of witnesses after facing <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jessicagarrison/a-third-fbi-agent-will-not-be-testifying-in-the-michigan">allegations of perjury</a> in a different case. </p>
<p>Jurors in the ongoing state trial of the eight other members of the Watchmen will <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/ag/news/press-releases/2022/08/10/ag-nessel-prevails-in-continued-prosecution-of-wolverine-watchmen">be barred</a> from hearing this information about the FBI agents’ actions, which further contributes to the perceptions some militia-world actors have about the unfairness of the process.</p>
<p><em>This article is based on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-embedding-with-the-michigan-militia-5-questions-answered-about-the-group-allegedly-plotting-to-kidnap-a-governor-147876">previous article</a> published Oct. 9, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189291/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Cooter is a Senior Research Fellow at Middlebury College's Center for Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism. After the previous The Conversation article, defense attorneys for Adam Fox asked for her expert insights on the usual structures and activities of militia groups, but she received no detailed information about the case or any defendants beyond what was presented at trial. Dr. Cooter is a prior recipient of the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship.</span></em></p>Two men accused of planning to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2020 have been found guilty. Their backgrounds and the trial itself raise concerns about the role of extremism in America.Amy Cooter, Senior Research Fellow in Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, MiddleburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1769652022-02-13T13:13:46Z2022-02-13T13:13:46ZWhat the Ambassador Bridge and other ‘freedom convoy’ blockades mean for Canada-U.S. trade<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446084/original/file-20220213-29677-1p9kib.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C33%2C4498%2C2605&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An Ontario Provincial Police tactical officer looks on from the top hatch of an armoured vehicle at the Ambassador Bridge.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Trade between Canada and the United States was hampered for almost a week by <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8615208/ambassador-bridge-police-convoy-clearing/">the blockade of the Ambassador Bridge</a> at the Windsor-Detroit border as part of the so-called freedom convoy protest.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ambassador-bridge-injunction-ruling-1.6348767">A court injunction was secured to end the blockade </a> on Friday, but protesters remained for two days until police <a href="https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/police-begin-second-push-to-clear-protesters-at-ambassador-bridge/wcm/bde4f180-a277-440b-a843-92579e50e2d7">finally began to clear it of people and vehicles.</a> The bridge <a href="https://windsor.ctvnews.ca/ambassador-bridge-reopens-sunday-evening-1.5780041">re-opened late Sunday night</a>.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/peace-bridge-protest-1.6346883">increasing tensions in other parts of Canada, and similar blockades are likely to emerge, including at the Peace Bridge in the Niagara region.</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/world/europe/vaccine-mandate-protests-paris.html">The movement has also gone international.</a></p>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford <a href="https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/premier-rolls-out-emergency-measures-targeted-at-ambassador-bridge-protesters">declared a state of emergency</a> aimed partly at the blockade at the
<a href="https://www.ambassadorbridge.com/">Ambassador Bridge</a>, one of the busiest bridges in North America and the No. 1 international border crossing in terms of trade volume and people each day. </p>
<p>Ford has introduced heavy fines of up to $100,000, the confiscation of vehicles and the possibility of up to a year in prison for anyone blocking border crossings, 400-series highways, airports, ports, railways and pedestrian walkways. </p>
<p>The bridge accounts for nearly <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60320874">30 per cent of annual trade between Canada and the U.S., amounting to a trade value of US$323 million daily</a>. The bridge is used by more than 40,000 commuters, tourists and truck drivers crossing each day.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bridge is shown at dusk with trees in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445999/original/file-20220211-23-1rc6gm1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445999/original/file-20220211-23-1rc6gm1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445999/original/file-20220211-23-1rc6gm1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445999/original/file-20220211-23-1rc6gm1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445999/original/file-20220211-23-1rc6gm1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445999/original/file-20220211-23-1rc6gm1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445999/original/file-20220211-23-1rc6gm1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Ambassador Bridge, spanning the Detroit River between Windsor and Detroit, is shown in December 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Thornhill</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trump trade tensions</h2>
<p>Because of trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada in recent years, the blockade was particularly concerning because it prolonged those tensions. </p>
<p>Former U.S. president Donald Trump created trade uncertainty during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-if-trump-kills-nafta-remedies-for-canada-and-mexico-91129">renegotiation of NAFTA that almost led to the collapse of the only free-trade agreement in North America</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, the Trump administration <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/controls-controles/steel_alum-acier_alum.aspx?lang=eng">imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in 2018</a>, forcing Canada to impose retaliatory tariffs on agri-food products from the U.S.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-trumps-tariffs-are-much-bigger-than-trump-97761">How Trump's tariffs are much bigger than Trump</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Since the Trump years, <a href="https://www.utpjournals.press/doi/full/10.3138/cpp.2021-028">the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted bilateral trade between the two countries</a> because of border closures and ban of international travel at the peak of the pandemic. </p>
<p>Bilateral trade is highly sensitive to these types of disruptions as businesses factor such risk and uncertainty into cross-border trading decisions. If the risk they are exposed to is substantial, businesses are hesitant to engage in international trade. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/cjag.12267">recent research</a> shows that the political tensions between the U.S. and Canada during the Trump administration created significant trade uncertainty, negatively impacting bilateral agri-food trade by reducing trade value between the U.S. and Canada.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three protesters carrying Canadian flags at the Ambassador Bridge." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445996/original/file-20220211-23-101etjp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4792%2C3247&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445996/original/file-20220211-23-101etjp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445996/original/file-20220211-23-101etjp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445996/original/file-20220211-23-101etjp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445996/original/file-20220211-23-101etjp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445996/original/file-20220211-23-101etjp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445996/original/file-20220211-23-101etjp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Truckers and supporters block the access leading from the Ambassador Bridge, linking Detroit and Windsor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The blockade and increased trade costs</h2>
<p>Canada and the U.S. are natural trading partners by virtue of a shared border and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02722011.2020.1743003?casa_token=8QlcB1oS1XsAAAAA%3Az5CTTmP6ac9BcGk4KuR-FXdq38aAqXY_Dbzr8D7Tqa66FJZN0OySnSKPJt2dPAuWzv4Ksivok1bRIw">similar consumer tastes and values</a>. The two countries enjoy the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/cjag.12267">largest bilateral trading relationship in the world</a>. </p>
<p>Annually, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-canada-trucking-idCNL1N2UL1KZ">more than two-thirds of the US$511 billion in goods are transported by road</a>. The Ambassador Bridge blockade increased the costs of this trade directly and indirectly. </p>
<p>The blockade was a direct disruption of an established trade channel, so goods scheduled to be transported had to wait or use alternative routes that were likely more expensive. </p>
<p>Indirectly, it also stirred uncertainty in bilateral trade relations and could have a damaging and prolonged impact. The blockade acted as an additional tariff or tax for businesses exporting or importing between the two countries.</p>
<p>Although there are more than <a href="https://www.geographyrealm.com/interesting-geography-facts-about-the-us-canada-border/">100 alternative land border crossings between the U.S. and Canada</a>, costs can rise due to the expense and sometimes long delays spent determining and travelling to alternative routes.</p>
<p>The protests may also spill over to other U.S.-Canada border crossings that provide alternative routes. Already, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/americas/canada-trucker-protests-covid-thursday/index.html">Canadian protesters have caused border closures at Emerson, Man. and Coutts, Alta</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trucks and tractors block a snowy highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446011/original/file-20220211-17-121xzi8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446011/original/file-20220211-17-121xzi8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446011/original/file-20220211-17-121xzi8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446011/original/file-20220211-17-121xzi8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446011/original/file-20220211-17-121xzi8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446011/original/file-20220211-17-121xzi8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446011/original/file-20220211-17-121xzi8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People block Highway 75 with heavy trucks and farm equipment to prevent access to the Canada-U.S. border crossing at Emerson, Man.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/John Woods</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Alternative modes of transportation</h2>
<p>A major alternative to land cross-border trade is seaport and air freight trade. </p>
<p>However, changing trade logistics from roads to ships is not an option for many companies or industries, and it’s often infeasible due to the lack of refrigerating systems in containers. </p>
<p>Bilateral trade via ground shipping is also more economical compared to air freight, especially if countries share a common border and have an interconnected road network.</p>
<p>For highly perishable agricultural products like fresh fish or fruits, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/agr.21704">a higher shipment frequency is more important</a> due to the importance of delivery time whereas size or volume is more important for traditional product shipments, since bigger deliveries can reduce transportation costs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A display of bananas, apples, oranges and other fruits at a grocery store." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446020/original/file-20220211-15-18yr9lt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446020/original/file-20220211-15-18yr9lt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446020/original/file-20220211-15-18yr9lt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446020/original/file-20220211-15-18yr9lt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446020/original/file-20220211-15-18yr9lt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446020/original/file-20220211-15-18yr9lt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446020/original/file-20220211-15-18yr9lt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bananas and other fruits are seen in the produce section at an Atlantic Superstore grocery in Halifax in January 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Kelly Clark</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trade volume by road</h2>
<p>The U.S. and Canada have established the most enduring and lucrative trade partnership in the world. As of 2019, Canada was the largest export destination of American goods and the third-largest supplier of imported goods in the U.S.</p>
<p>Among all other traded goods, agricultural and food trade is of great importance. Canada is the second-largest U.S. agricultural export market, importing up to <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/canada-2020-export-highlights">US$22.1 billion amount goods in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>The perishable nature of agri-food products makes any delay at borders costly to farmers and businesses. The bridge blockade disproportionately affected agricultural products compared to non-agricultural products.</p>
<p>Canada mainly imports processed foods that directly move from grocery shops to dinner tables, such as <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada#:%7E:text=Leading%20services%20exports%20from%20the,visual%20and%20related%20products">prepared foods (US$2.1 billion), fresh vegetables (US$1.8 billion), fresh fruit ($1.5 billion), snack foods ($1.3 billion) and non-alcoholic beverages (US$1.0 billion)</a>. </p>
<p>Highly integrated supply chains and logistical advantages allow both countries to be strong trade partners in agri-food trade by ensuring the timely delivery of fresh foods and retail-ready goods. </p>
<h2>Sectors and regions hard hit</h2>
<p>Geographically, border blockades likely have a bigger impact on <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/state-agricultural-trade-data/state-agricultural-trade-data/#State%20Trade%20by%20Country%20of%20Origin%20and%20Destination%20(Fiscal%20Quarters)">U.S. farming states with economies that are highly dependent on exporting to Canada</a>, including North Dakota, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota and Montana. </p>
<p>Similarly, Canadian provinces such as Prince Edward Island, Manitoba and Saskatchewan that are somewhat more dependent on primary or non-processed agri-food products, including grains, will also suffer heavily from border blockades.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A field of durum wheat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446018/original/file-20220211-25-laxfkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446018/original/file-20220211-25-laxfkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446018/original/file-20220211-25-laxfkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446018/original/file-20220211-25-laxfkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446018/original/file-20220211-25-laxfkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446018/original/file-20220211-25-laxfkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446018/original/file-20220211-25-laxfkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Durum wheat is shown in a field in Saskatchewan in July 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Kayle Neis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The automobile industry across the U.S. and Canada felt the brunt of the Ambassador Bridge protest as major producers such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/gm-cancels-two-shifts-lansing-plant-following-canadian-trucking-protests-2022-02-10/">Toyota, Ford and General Motors closed down production plants.</a> The auto industry sector in Canada and the U.S. is highly dependent on the North American supply chain in which different auto parts are produced across borders. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/09/canada-truck-bridge-protest-autos/">The auto industry also expressed concerns about potential job losses as a result of plants closures if the blockade continued.</a>.</p>
<p>Rising inflation <a href="https://www.dal.ca/sites/agri-food/research/canada-s-food-price-report-2022.html">in Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-10/u-s-inflation-charges-higher-with-larger-than-forecast-gain">the U.S.</a>, triggered mostly by COVID-19 and climate change disruptions to supply chains, makes border blockades a major concern.</p>
<p>If not addressed speedily, blockades will cause food prices to soar even higher given <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/01/20/dairy-and-fresh-produce-prices-expected-to-soar-as-canadas-inflation-hits-30-year-high.html?rf">the rise in general inflation is already expected to significantly impact food prices</a>.</p>
<p>It may appear that border blockades are purely a Canadian political issue, but since it constitutes a barrier to two-way trade between the U.S. and Canada, it has implications for both countries. The integrated supply chain across both countries will be disrupted. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1492221118131884034"}"></div></p>
<p>That’s why the U.S. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/white-house-border-convoy-protest-covid-response-1.6347421">offered its assistance in ending the blockade at the Ambassador Bridge.</a></p>
<p>The Canadian government needs to work with the U.S. to end border blockades, particularly since <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-s-freedom-convoy-attracts-support-from-u-s-and-around-the-world-1.5776238">Canadian protesters are being supported politically and financially by right-wing politicians and media in the U.S</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sunghun Lim receives funding from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (USDA-NIFA).</span></em></p>The perishable nature of agri-food products makes any delay at the Canada-U.S. border costly to farmers, businesses and consumers.Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, Assistant Professor, Agri-Food Trade and Policy, University of GuelphSunghun Lim, Assistant Professor, Texas Tech UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1689112021-10-06T12:27:40Z2021-10-06T12:27:40Z4 trends in public school enrollment due to COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424557/original/file-20211004-19-qw9r9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2658&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. public school enrollment overall decreased by 3% in the fall of 2020, but kindergarten enrollment dropped 9%.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kindergarten-student-natalia-bayoumi-holds-the-hand-of-her-news-photo/1234722046">Al Seib / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When schools began the fall semester of 2020 – six months after the <a href="https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020">World Health Organization declared</a> COVID-19 a pandemic – many of them reported a significant <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/920316481/enrollment-is-dropping-in-public-schools-around-the-country">decline in student enrollment</a>. </p>
<p>Federal education data shows that public school enrollment dropped <a href="https://ies.ed.gov/blogs/nces/post/new-data-reveal-public-school-enrollment-decreased-3-percent-in-2020-21-school-year">3% compared to the previous year</a>. That means roughly <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_203.20.asp">1.5 million students</a> exited the U.S. public education system.</p>
<p>To better understand these enrollment declines, we analyzed school enrollment records for every student in the state of Michigan. This deep dive focused not only on how the pandemic affected the number of kids enrolled in public schools – both traditional and charter – but also whether families decided to home-school or enroll in private school. We compared these student-level records from Michigan with national data from the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data.html">Household Pulse Survey</a> conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2020 and 2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://epistage.fordschool.umich.edu/research/epi-working-papers/pandemics-effect-demand-public-schools-homeschooling-and-private">Our research</a> uncovered four major trends in school enrollment during the first year of the pandemic.</p>
<h2>1. Kindergarten experienced a big drop</h2>
<p>In Michigan, overall public school enrollment decreased by 3% in the fall of 2020. The largest decline was in kindergarten, where enrollment dropped 10%. The national data follow a similar pattern, showing a 3% drop in overall enrollment and a <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/whatsnew/press_releases/06_28_2021.asp">9% drop</a> among kindergartners.</p>
<p>These enrollment drops are a big deal for several reasons.</p>
<p>For starters, if the families who pulled their kids out of public schools during the pandemic never come back, it means fewer students and less money for public schools.</p>
<p>However, if most students ultimately reenroll in public schools, there will be sharp – and possibly unplanned – increases in the overall size of the student body at many schools.</p>
<p>If schools are not able to quickly adapt by hiring more qualified teachers, this could result in a range of challenges, including above-average class sizes, which <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/class-size-what-research-says-and-what-it-means-for-state-policy/">directly affect students’ learning</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Homeschooling became more popular</h2>
<p>In February 2020, <a href="https://epistage.fordschool.umich.edu/research/epi-working-papers/pandemics-effect-demand-public-schools-homeschooling-and-private">4.5% of U.S. households</a> with school-aged children reported home-schooling at least one child. By the fall of 2020, that rate <a href="https://epistage.fordschool.umich.edu/research/epi-working-papers/pandemics-effect-demand-public-schools-homeschooling-and-private">jumped to 7.3%</a>. This was driven largely by families with children in elementary school.</p>
<p>In Michigan, we found that among students who left the public school system for an alternative education sector, the majority elected to enroll in homeschooling, though there were also increases in private school enrollment. For rising first graders, for example, exits to homeschooling accounted for 56% of the total number of students not returning to public schools.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman and young girl sit at home table talking expressively" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424552/original/file-20211004-19-291v0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C0%2C2982%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424552/original/file-20211004-19-291v0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424552/original/file-20211004-19-291v0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424552/original/file-20211004-19-291v0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424552/original/file-20211004-19-291v0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424552/original/file-20211004-19-291v0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424552/original/file-20211004-19-291v0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Homeschooling became more popular during the pandemic, particularly for elementary school kids.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/teacher-maria-magallanes-r-homeschools-zola-west-a-child-news-photo/1212478865">Photo by Jahi Chikwendiu/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Parents based decisions on how schools held class</h2>
<p>Both in Michigan and nationally, school systems that offered in-person instruction in the fall of 2020 had larger increases in homeschooling rates than school systems that offered remote instruction. On the other hand, school systems that offered remote instruction in the fall of 2020 saw relatively larger increases in private school enrollment.</p>
<p>These patterns suggest that no matter what public schools chose – in-person or remote instruction – many parents were going to send their children elsewhere.</p>
<p>The disproportionate increase in homeschooling rates in districts offering in-person instruction suggests that some families pulled their children from public school due to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1017864066/how-some-districts-are-trying-to-get-anxious-families-back-into-school-buildings">health concerns related to in-person instruction</a> during a pandemic.</p>
<p>However, the disproportionate increase in private sector enrollment in districts offering remote instruction suggests that other parents were eager to seek out in-person learning opportunities, possibly due to concerns about the quality of instruction and learning in a remote setting. </p>
<h2>4. Age, income and race all factored into schooling decisions</h2>
<p>Changes in school enrollment patterns varied substantially by students’ grade, family income and race. In Michigan, we found that the drops in kindergarten enrollment were largest among low-income and Black students. However, the smaller enrollment declines in other grades were disproportionately among higher-income and white students. </p>
<p>These patterns highlight important differences in how families make schooling decisions. Black and lower-income families appear to be more likely to enroll in alternative sectors at the time of initial public school enrollment, specifically kindergarten. Meanwhile, white and higher-income families appear more open to alternative options after their child has already been enrolled in the public school system.</p>
<p>This finding adds an additional layer to evidence that race and income were not only important factors in <a href="https://www.edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai212-374.pdf">access to in-person instruction</a>, but also how families responded when offered either in-person or remote instruction.</p>
<p>Whether students who were pulled from the public school system fare better or worse academically remains to be seen. Much of it depends on the quality of the instruction being offered at their new schools.</p>
<p>But given the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/07/how-pandemic-affected-black-and-white-households.html">disproportionate economic, health and social effects</a> that the pandemic has already had on historically disadvantaged communities, these enrollment trends may widen <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.20437">existing achievement gaps</a> in years to come. </p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fewer students enrolled in public school and more were home-schooled during the 2020-21 school year. Researchers analyzed records in Michigan to understand what drove parents to make these decisions.Tareena Musaddiq, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of MichiganAndrew Bacher-Hicks, Assistant Professor of Education Policy, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1660052021-08-27T12:30:13Z2021-08-27T12:30:13ZHow public health partnerships are encouraging COVID-19 vaccination in Mississippi, Michigan, Indiana and South Carolina<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418171/original/file-20210827-23-149hvu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6034%2C3418&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Delta Health Center worker at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination clinic in rural Mississippi in April 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/medical-workers-with-delta-health-center-prepare-to-news-photo/1315261886">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>About 18 months into the coronavirus pandemic, roughly <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total">61% of all Americans</a> have gotten at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. In some states, however, the share of vaccinated people is as low as 43.6%. There are many counties where <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/09/1014512213/covid-is-surging-in-new-hotspots-driven-by-low-vaccination-rates">numbers are even lower than that</a>, leaving them especially vulnerable to surges in coronavirus infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Here, four public health and communications experts from Michigan, Indiana, Mississippi and South Carolina explain how they are teaming up with nonprofits and other partners to encourage more people in their states and local communities to get these <a href="https://www.wpr.org/health-officials-public-countering-covid-19-misinformation-saves-lives">potentially lifesaving shots</a>.</em></p>
<p><iframe id="JOHfX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JOHfX/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>1. Closing the racial gap in Michigan’s COVID-19 vaccination</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=v-vE-asAAAAJ">Debra Furr-Holden</a>, professor of public health, Michigan State University</strong></p>
<p>Initially, Michigan was one of many states with tremendous <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7028a2.htm#">racial disparities in COVID-19 cases and deaths</a>. As a result, the state tried to make it easier for Blacks and other people of color to get tested, acquire personal protective equipment and, once vaccines became available, get vaccines.</p>
<p>But as an epidemiologist who participated in the partnerships formed between the government, academics, health care professionals, nonprofits and philanthropic funders, I’m concerned because African Americans are still disproportionately getting COVID-19 and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-california-coronavirus-pandemic-race-and-ethnicity-health-341950a902affc651dc268dba6d83264">dying from it</a>. And despite our concerted efforts, I’m troubled by the big gap between <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/">vaccination rates for Black people and white people in Michigan</a>, even if these differences <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/20/politics/texas-dan-patrick-coronavirus-black-people-vaccines-fact-check/index.html">by race and ethnicity are dissipating across the country</a> overall.</p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/">13% of Michigan residents are Black</a>, and yet 10% of the people in the state who had gotten at least one dose of a vaccine by Aug. 16, 2021 were Black, according to the Kaiser Foundation. </p>
<p>This imbalance is one reason why I helped launch the <a href="https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2021/cdc-grant-boosts-confidence-in-vaccines">National Network to Innovate for COVID-19 and Adult Vaccine Equity</a>, funded with a $6 million grant from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. One overarching goal of this project is to close the racial disparities gap in COVID-19 and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.amepre.2015.03.005">other adult vaccinations</a>, such as the flu and shingles. </p>
<p>The project is a partnership between Michigan State University, Michigan Public Health Institute, the Community Foundation of Greater Flint and Community Campus Partnerships for Health. It also partners with organizations committed to reducing African American health disparities, including the NAACP, the Rainbow PUSH Coalition and the National Medical Association.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2353&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman wearing a mask gets a COVID-19 vaccine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2353&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417898/original/file-20210825-19-1ub0jy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Takalya Faulkner receives a dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on Aug. 24, 2021 in Southfield, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/takalya-faulkner-receives-her-booster-dose-of-the-pfizer-news-photo/1234850756">Emily Elconin/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Outreach to Latinos and members of the Haitian community in Indiana</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Omolola-A-Adeoye-Olatunde-2167740203">Omolola Adeoye-Olatunde</a>, assistant professor of pharmacy practice, Purdue University</strong> </p>
<p>Marion County, which includes Indianapolis, is <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/marioncountyindiana">racially and ethnically diverse</a>, with nearly half the population identifying as people of color. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, it had Indiana’s <a href="https://feedingindianashungry.org/hunger-study-finds-food-insecurity-levels-remain-historically-high/">highest level of food insecurity</a>. As of mid-August, <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/">Black and Latino residents were underrepresented</a> among people in Indiana who had gotten at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. Roughly <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view">half of all people in Marion County</a> had gotten at least one dose by late August 2021.</p>
<p>The Purdue University Center for Health Equity and Innovation, or <a href="https://cheqi.pharmacy.purdue.edu">CHEqI</a>, where <a href="https://www.phpr.purdue.edu/directory/adeoyeo">I work</a>, partnered with the <a href="https://www.gleaners.org/learn/hunger-in-your-community/marion-county/">Gleaners Food Bank of Indiana</a> and Walgreens to <a href="https://indianactsi.org/news_/indiana-ctsi-tl1-postdoc-leads-partnership-to-give-covid-vaccines-to-hoosiers-experiencing-food-insecurity/">design and pilot</a> an initiative that gave COVID-19 vaccines to people arriving for drive-thru food distribution.</p>
<p>Across the pilot’s first six vaccination events occurring between June and August 2021, 2,787 families got food and 2,465 of the food bank’s clients were asked about their vaccination status and interest by student pharmacists. About 60% said they’d already been vaccinated; 229 of them got vaccines by Walgreens pharmacy staff, with 14% being second-dose vaccinations.</p>
<p>Nearly 60% of the people who got the pilot’s vaccines and reported their ethnicity self-identified as Hispanic or Latino.</p>
<p>Numbers of vaccinations have declined since the first events in June, but student volunteers and Walgreens staff have observed that several clients who received vaccines were previously reluctant to get them. For example, one food bank client indicated they had recently canceled a scheduled vaccine appointment due to hesitancy. Upon talking to student pharmacists and Walgreens pharmacy staff for 10 minutes, and having all of their concerns addressed, they decided to get the vaccine at a Gleaners vaccine event.</p>
<p>We will expand this model to another central Indiana location in late August 2021. There, we should be able to serve not just more Latinos, but many members of the <a href="http://www.haindy.org/hai/who-we-are/">Haitian immigrant community</a> and other food-insecure people. Later, we plan to try integrating access to donated food with other public health initiatives.</p>
<p>I believe that this collaborative model, built on longstanding trust between Gleaners and its clients, serves as a promising avenue to simultaneously address food insecurity, decrease vaccine hesitancy, increase access to COVID-19 vaccines and promote health equity in central Indiana.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People protest mandates related to COVID-19." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417905/original/file-20210825-27-nc1ofu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people in Indiana, like these at a Bloomington protest in June 2021, are leery of getting vaccinated against COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protesters-holding-placards-gather-at-indiana-universitys-news-photo/1233384515">Jeremy Hogan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Navigating the Mississippi RIVER</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lEIbjzkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">David Buys</a>, associate professor of health, Mississippi State University</strong></p>
<p>By Aug. 24, 2021, <a href="https://healthdata.gov/Community/COVID-19-State-Profile-Report-Mississippi/epqx-kmvs">44.8% of Mississippi residents</a> had gotten at least one shot of the COVID-19 vaccine. With <a href="https://abc7news.com/vaccine-finder-covid-signup-am-i-eligible-for-county-health-department/9478998/">one of the country’s lowest vaccination rates</a>, my state’s latest outbreak is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-mississippi-6fa32e24bacaf6d8f59ee74beabbffdb">filling up hospitals</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.msstate.edu/newsroom/article/2021/08/msu-partners-delta-health-alliance-mississippi-river-project-vaccination">Mississippi State University</a> is trying to increase the vaccination rate by partnering with the <a href="https://deltahealthalliance.org/">Delta Health Alliance</a>, a public health nonprofit that serves communities in Mississippi and western Tennessee. Together, we are spreading awareness about the <a href="https://panolian.com/2021/08/09/getting-vaccinated-prevents-more-covid-19-mutations/">importance and safety of getting vaccinated</a> on campus and in all 82 of the state’s counties, especially 32 counties in eastern Mississippi. </p>
<p>The new Mississippi RIVER project – RIVER stands for <a href="https://www.getyourshotms.org/about">Recognizing Important Vaccine and Education Resources</a> – includes more than 20 students and others who are paid <a href="https://www.msstate.edu/newsroom/article/2021/08/msu-partners-delta-health-alliance-mississippi-river-project-vaccination">vaccination ambassadors</a>. During the 2021-2022 school year, they are educating their classmates, answering frequently asked questions and encouraging their peers to visit pop-up clinics.</p>
<p>This partnership is funded by the <a href="https://www.hrsa.gov/coronavirus/community-based-workforce">Health Resources and Services Administration</a>, a federal agency. In turn, it is funding <a href="https://uscprssa.com/2021/08/06/fall-pandemic-preparedness-and-vaccine-incentives-at-jsu-and-msu-usm-blessings-in-a-backpack-program-jackson-free-press/">incentives for Mississippi State students</a> to get their shots, such as $250 in bookstore coupons or a chance to win a $9,000 tuition discount through a raffle.</p>
<p>Additionally, through this partnership, my university’s extension service, where I do most of my work for the state, is leveraging our reach across Mississippi, including through one-on-one conversations with community members at local workplaces, festivals and other events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in mask eyes man in suit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418170/original/file-20210827-27493-79kkg1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mississippi State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs responds to a question during a news briefing regarding his state’s COVID-19 response in Jackson, in August 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakMississippi/80b047e8140a4e6aa6df6d9f866b8eb1/photo?Query=mississippi%20AND%20dobbs&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=118&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Identifying barriers through focus groups in South Carolina</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=z_rGiRsAAAAJ&hl=en">Brooke W. McKeever</a>, associate professor of communication, University of South Carolina</strong> </p>
<p>Toward the end of August 2021, South Carolina <a href="https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-population-vaccinated-march-15.html">ranked 41st in the U.S.</a> in terms of the percentage of the population that had been fully vaccinated. According to <a href="https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-vaccination-dashboard">state health authorities</a>, <a href="https://healthdata.gov/Community/COVID-19-State-Profile-Report-South-Carolina/jw8e-8y5f">60.5% of all adults</a> had gotten at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by Aug. 20 but there are counties with much lower vaccination rates.</p>
<p>Researchers at the <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/index.htm">Prevention Research Center at the University of South Carolina</a> are working with the <a href="https://scchwa.org/">South Carolina Community Health Worker Association</a>, <a href="http://palss.org/">Palmetto AIDS Life Support Services</a> and others to increase COVID-19 vaccination throughout the state.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vice President Kamala Harris, wearing a mask, meets with several people at a pop-up vaccination clinic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417903/original/file-20210825-17-qdixfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and Walgreens executives visit a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination site at the YMCA of Greenville, S.C. in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-kamala-harris-ceo-of-walgreens-roz-brewer-news-photo/1323545132">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Together, we are working to learn what barriers still exist, what misinformation may be spreading in various communities, how we can increase trust and convince those who have not been vaccinated to get their shots <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-ec73ec0e4150f6dd1a2c4f8a07c5ab8b">amid an alarming outbreak</a>.</p>
<p>Based on what we learn through focus groups, we will work with community health workers to address misinformation and communicate with those who still have concerns that are keeping them from getting vaccinated. If there are other barriers, such as access to vaccines, we will address those, too. </p>
<p>We are building on a wide array of partnerships – with <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/projects/fantraining.htm">churches</a>, nonprofits, a <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/partners.htm">community advisory board</a> and <a href="http://prevention.sph.sc.edu/faculty-investigators.htm">academic researchers</a> –
to gain access to trusted individuals who can serve as important sources of health information in communities that might be difficult to reach otherwise.</p>
<p>Our Prevention Research Center is one of many throughout the U.S. that have been funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as part of its <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/vaccinate-with-confidence.html">COVID-19 Vaccinate with Confidence Strategy</a> program. We hope our work with the CDC, state agencies and local nonprofits will get more South Carolina residents vaccinated, which will help protect us all moving forward. </p>
<p>[<em>Research into coronavirus and other news from science</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-research">Subscribe to The Conversation’s new science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Debra Furr-Holden receives funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brooke W. McKeever receives funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David R. Buys receives funding from the Health Services and Research Administration via the Delta Health Alliance, Extension Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Agency, and the United States Department of Agriculture.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Omolola Adeoye-Olatunde receives funding from the Indiana Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute, Indiana Department of Health, and the Marion County Public Health Department. </span></em></p>Achieving widespread immunity to COVID-19 through vaccination requires as many people as possible to get their shots, including those who object or haven’t bothered.Debra Furr-Holden, Associate Dean for Public Health Integration, Michigan State UniversityBrooke W. McKeever, Associate Professor of Communication, University of South CarolinaDavid R. Buys, Associate Professor of Health, Mississippi State UniversityOmolola Adeoye-Olatunde, Assistant Professor of Pharmacy Practice, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1557112021-03-29T12:08:37Z2021-03-29T12:08:37ZProject-based learning deepens science knowledge for 3rd graders in Michigan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390482/original/file-20210318-19-1fgxpiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2400%2C1591&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Project-based learning gets kids to explore natural phenomena and solve real-world problems.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/children-look-at-plants-and-insects-in-the-garden-of-news-photo/564054715?adppopup=true">Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.lucasedresearch.org">Project-based learning</a> – a teaching approach whereby students explore and solve real-world challenges – can improve third graders’ scientific knowledge as well as their social and emotional skills.</p>
<p><a href="https://mlpbl.open3d.science/techreport">Our study</a> evaluated 2,371 third graders in 46 Michigan schools. Approximately half of the sample received an intervention called Multiple Literacies in Project-Based Learning. The others received traditional science instruction. </p>
<p>The project-based learning program is a yearlong science intervention that includes materials for curriculum, teacher professional development and student testing. It aims to develop students’ science knowledge to understand their world by drawing on their individual and cultural life experiences. At the same time, it also builds reading and math skills and improves social and emotional learning. </p>
<p>Each unit starts with a driving question such as: “How can we design fun, moving toys that any kid can build?” From there, students ask their own questions and investigate what causes moving objects to start, stop or change directions. They collect and analyze data to use as evidence to support their claims and build models to show their thinking. They go on to design and develop products which they share with their classmates, family and school community. For instance, in the toy unit, third grade students received suggestions from first graders to build a toy car or boat that can move fast, straight and go a long distance.</p>
<p>Students in the project-based intervention scored 8% higher on the Michigan state science test than the group of students who received traditional instruction. They also demonstrated greater social and emotional learning compared with the other group, based on surveys done at the start and end of the school year. The survey measured collaboration, ownership and self-reflection.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>K-12 students need to learn scientific ideas – such as balanced and unbalanced forces and adaptation – to understand the world, including the pressing environmental problems they are likely to face as a result of climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic further highlights the importance of evidence in making scientific claims. </p>
<p>Unlike a traditional elementary school science curriculum, which relies on textbooks and covering information, project-based learning students learn how to explain natural events such as why dinosaurs died out but tiny mammals survived, and why objects start or stop moving or change directions. They design solutions to engineering problems, and acquire the intellectual tools to seek out additional knowledge when needed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Kids work together on sidewalk in snow" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390486/original/file-20210318-15-483nbp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michigan elementary school students measure their shadows for a lesson on using the sun and stars to navigate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Create for STEM Institute</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Multiple Literacies in Project-Based Learning program was designed using principles supported by research and aligning with <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/13165/a-framework-for-k-12-science-education-practices-crosscutting-concepts">recommendations</a> from the <a href="https://tethys.pnnl.gov/organization/national-research-council-national-academies-nrc">National Research Council</a> on how to support student learning, such as using engineering practices to help make sense of compelling phenomena.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>We expect – but do no yet know – that if students continue to experience the project-based curriculum in fourth and fifth grades, their knowledge of science, social and emotional learning and creative problem-solving will continue to grow. We also expect that as teachers gain experience teaching project-based learning, their students’ science knowledge and creative problem-solving will increase even more. </p>
<p>We are also learning ways to better capture and keep children’s attention with challenging real-world problems and compelling phenomena.</p>
<h2>What other research is being done</h2>
<p>We have conducted a similar project-based intervention in high school chemistry and physics. Our findings show that it increased science achievement and interest in pursuing STEM careers for all students, regardless of ability and backgrounds. We are currently exploring how to make project-based learning usable and lasting in various environments, including virtual, hybrid and face-to-face instruction.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph S Krajcik receives funding from George Lucas Educational Foundaton. The work we are writing about was funded by the George Lucas Educational Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Schneider receives funding from George Lucas Educational Foundation. The work we are writing about was funded by the George Lucas Educational Foundation.</span></em></p>Students who took part in the program scored 8% higher on the state science test than students who received traditional instruction, and demonstrated greater social and emotional learning.Joseph S. Krajcik, Professor of Science Education, Michigan State UniversityBarbara Schneider, Professor of Education and Sociology, Michigan State University, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1502402020-11-24T13:09:31Z2020-11-24T13:09:31ZSchool suspensions don’t just unfairly penalize Black students – they lead to lower grades and ‘Black flight’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369977/original/file-20201118-15-1dzjolw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3628&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Suspensions have continued throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, while children are attending remotely from their homes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/tired-african-teenager-girl-with-headache-royalty-free-image/1202565621?adppopup=true"> Marie-Claude Lemay/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>School suspensions are intended to deter violence and punish students who demonstrate problematic behavior.</p>
<p>Yet, when I interviewed 30 Black high school students in southeast Michigan who had been suspended from school and 30 of their parents, I learned that many students were suspended because school officials misinterpreted their behaviors. Additionally, the suspensions led to students’ grades dropping significantly and to some parents withdrawing their children from their school districts.</p>
<p>I published my findings in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0190740919312034">Children and Youth Services Review</a> and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042085920968629">Urban Education</a> journals as part of my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VcznCP0AAAAJ&hl=en">ongoing research</a> on how Black students and parents view school punishment and its impact on their daily lives.</p>
<p>You might assume that these punitive disciplinary practices have stopped since so many children are not physically in school due to the COVID-19 pandemic. You would be wrong. News reports show that suspensions have continued throughout the pandemic, while children are attending school remotely from their homes. </p>
<p>For example, in September, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/26/us/student-suspended-gun-virtual/index.html">school officials suspended</a> 9-year-old Louisiana student Ka’Mauri Harrison for six days because he placed a BB gun on a shelf in his room after one of his siblings tripped over it during virtual learning. In other incidents, such as when 12-year-old Isaiah Elliot played with a toy gun during virtual art class, school officials sent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/08/colorado-springs-boy-suspended-toy-gun-virtual-class-police">law enforcement officers</a> to his home – terrifying everyone in their household. Although these cases attracted considerable media attention, I believe most do not.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man, woman and teenager pose together" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370351/original/file-20201119-22-3h56zn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370351/original/file-20201119-22-3h56zn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370351/original/file-20201119-22-3h56zn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370351/original/file-20201119-22-3h56zn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370351/original/file-20201119-22-3h56zn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370351/original/file-20201119-22-3h56zn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370351/original/file-20201119-22-3h56zn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Curtis and Dani Elliott were shocked when armed El Paso County Sheriff’s deputies came to their house. Their 12-year-old son Isaiah was suspended for playing with a toy gun during his virtual art class.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy Dani Elliott</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Collectively, these instances of unwarranted school punishment raise important questions about their impact on millions of individuals – <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-10-13/school-suspension-data-shows-glaring-disparities-in-discipline-by-race">particularly Black students and parents</a>. The <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/school-climate-and-safety.pdf">most recent data shows</a> Black students represent 15% of K-12 public school students in the U.S. but receive 39% of school suspensions. </p>
<h2>Students and parents silenced</h2>
<p>In one interview after another, students told me they were denied the opportunity to explain their side, which could have led school officials to determine a suspension was unnecessary. Parents also said educators and administrators ignored them throughout the disciplinary process. </p>
<p>For example, Sandra, a ninth grader, received a five-day suspension for deescalating a fight between peers.</p>
<p>“I feel like they didn’t hear me out,” she said. “I told my mom and my dad and they was like, ‘Yeah, I don’t see why they suspended you.’ … [T]he [school officials] was like, ‘We feel like you threatened her.’ I’m like, ‘I didn’t, and the girl even said I didn’t threaten her.’ When I came back to school she was like, ‘Why did you get suspended?’ and I was like, ‘[Because] they said I threatened you,’ and she was like, ‘How did you threaten me?’ I’m like, exactly. So, I just felt like they should have listened to me and let me explain the whole situation.” </p>
<p>Mike’s daughter Kimberly, a ninth grade student, received a five-day suspension for hugging a boy. </p>
<p>“To suspend a child for five days for giving a person a hug is ridiculous,” he said. “I raised my voice about it many times. Their policies around suspension are very unnecessary.”</p>
<h2>Grades declined</h2>
<p>Students also told me their achievement declined by as much as two letter grades due to suspensions. Students and parents attributed the academic declines to missing high-point-value assignments, experiencing difficulty catching up, missing vital instruction and educators’ unwillingness to distribute makeup assignments to suspended students. </p>
<p>“[School discipline] affected my grades a lot,” said Marcus, a 10th grade student who received a 39-day suspension after he punched a gated window in response to his teacher calling him a “failure.” “I go up there to get my work, but it’s hard to do the work when you are outside of school. You get where you’re not receiving the proper guidance to do the work.”</p>
<p>Tangie’s 10th grade son received a 10-day suspension for defending himself after several gang members attacked him at school.</p>
<p>“I was going back up to the school every other day, fighting to get his makeup work from the teachers,” she said. “I kept calling and calling, and finally I ended up taking him to [a new school], which is terrible. But I had to because his teachers would not give me the damn work.”</p>
<h2>Black educational flight</h2>
<p>Several parents told me that excessive school suspensions motivated them to remove their child from a school district.</p>
<p>Lisa’s son, a 10th grader, borrowed a cellphone from a classmate. Then another student stole the cellphone from him. In response, school officials handcuffed him to a railing, suspended him for five days, and referred the case to the local prosecutor.</p>
<p>“I just feel at that time they failed him,” she told me. “He is asking to be transferred so I am looking into another school for him.”</p>
<p>Patrice met with school officials after her son was diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in order to create an individualized education plan for him. Although school officials created the plan, she said, they didn’t implement it. Instead, they continued to suspend him. </p>
<p>“He is going to another school this year,” she said. “How are you going to have an IEP and not follow through with what’s on the IEP? That’s a big issue! It’s just a lack of communication and too much suspension.”</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=experts">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get expert takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em>]</p>
<h2>Rethinking school discipline</h2>
<p>My findings suggest that schools should use alternatives to school suspensions. They also suggest that teachers should be required to distribute assignments to students who receive suspensions, and consider using virtual learning to reduce the negative impact of suspensions on student achievement. </p>
<p>Schools should also better understand how students and parents view school discipline and involve them in establishing school rules. Students changing schools is a <a href="https://www.nea.org/advocating-for-change/new-from-nea/unexplored-consequences-student-mobility">major concern</a> for administrators, and my study shows excessive school discipline motivates Black families to leave a district. </p>
<h2>Discipline transparency</h2>
<p>Several states, such as <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/02/zero-tolerance-schools/85317800/">Michigan</a> and <a href="https://ieanea.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/SB-100-FINAL.pdf">Illinois</a>, have passed school discipline reforms to reduce suspension rates. However, the data I collected, which will be featured in my upcoming book “<a href="https://www.drcharlesbell.com/">Code of the School</a>,” suggests the discipline reforms have been ineffective in some districts because school suspension data is not publicly available. </p>
<p>School discipline data that is anonymous and separated by race, gender, disability and infraction type should be published annually on the district’s website. Without school discipline transparency, parents and legislators cannot hold school districts accountable for the disciplinary reforms. I am working with Michigan legislators to resolve this issue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Bell receives funding from the American Society of Criminology and the Midwest Sociological Society.</span></em></p>Schools can consider virtual learning and other ways to reduce the negative impact of suspensions on student achievement.Charles Bell, Assistant Professor, Illinois State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1495202020-11-05T05:24:12Z2020-11-05T05:24:12ZRe-election hopes fading, Trump tries for an election win in the courts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367652/original/file-20201105-13-16jhtwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Note: This piece was updated on November 6 with rulings in three cases.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Facing the gradual erosion of early leads in several battleground states — and increasingly likely defeat in the presidential election — the Trump campaign is launching a well-planned legal assault to challenge the validity of ballots and the process of vote-counting itself. </p>
<p>The Biden campaign is responding with an equally well-coordinated legal defence and a grassroots fundraising effort called the “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/joe-biden-announces-fight-fund-for-vote-count-battle">Biden Fight Fund</a>”. </p>
<p>Once again, the courts will be called in to resolve a US presidential election, although it is unlikely any rulings will change the results significantly — unless the election comes down to extremely narrow margins in Pennsylvania or Georgia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-if-biden-has-a-likely-win-leading-a-deeply-divided-nation-will-be-difficult-148185">Even if Biden has a likely win, leading a deeply divided nation will be difficult</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Trump targets mail-in and early votes</h2>
<p>The unusual nature of the 2020 election — with a record <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/us/trump-biden-election">100 million people voting early</a> — ensured a topsy-turvy election night. Compounding the problem has been the large partisan divide in how people voted, with Democrats favouring early and mail-in voting and Republicans favouring in-person voting on election day. </p>
<p>Many states quickly reported the results from in-person ballots on election night, giving Trump an early lead in several battleground states. Those leads were then offset as mail-in and early votes were added to the tallies. </p>
<p>Trump has been encouraging his supporters to view these shifting totals as fishy, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/524404-trump-says-hell-go-to-supreme-court-to-stop-votes-from-being-counted">claiming</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is a major fraud on our nation. We want the law to be used in a proper manner. So we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>So far, Trump has indicated he will bring challenges in four states. This is what he is claiming and the chances he will ultimately be successful.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1324162287691833346"}"></div></p>
<h2>Wisconsin: Trump requests a recount</h2>
<p>In Wisconsin, where Biden leads Trump by less than a percentage point, the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/trump-campaign-request-recount-wisconsin-434055">Trump campaign announced it will seek a recount</a>. This is a relatively routine occurrence when margins are tight. Indeed, small margins often trigger <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-recount-thresholds.aspx#AR">automatic recounts</a> in many states. </p>
<p>After Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2016 by less than a <a href="https://www.axios.com/hillary-clinton-2016-election-votes-supreme-court-liberal-justice-1b4bc4fc-9fad-44b4-ab54-9ef86aa9c1f1.html">combined total of 80,000 votes</a> in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/12/pennsylvania-recount-jill-stein-request-denied">requested a recount</a>. The courts denied the request in Pennsylvania, but partial recounts occurred in Michigan and Wisconsin.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poll workers sort out early and absentee ballots in Kenosha, Wisconsin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wong Maye-E/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As FiveThirtyEight noted in 2016, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/">recounts rarely change the results</a> of elections, except when margins are razor thin. </p>
<p>It is unlikely Biden’s current <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/trump-biden-wisconsin-results-presidential-race-2020/6158190002/">20,000 vote margin over Trump in Wisconsin</a> would be severely dented by a recount.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/history-tells-us-that-a-contested-election-wont-destroy-american-democracy-149503">History tells us that a contested election won't destroy American democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Michigan: Trump seeks a (temporary) halt to counting</h2>
<p>In Michigan, the Trump campaign <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/trump-mich-complaint.pdf">filed a complaint</a> seeking to halt the vote count on the basis that Republican Party “election inspectors” (that is, poll workers) do not have access to venues where the counting is taking place. </p>
<p>It is not uncommon for poll workers in the US to be <a href="https://www.eac.gov/voters/become-poll-worker">affiliated with a political party</a>. Many states, including Michigan, require poll workers from both parties <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Managing_Your_Precinct_on_Election_Day_391790_7.pdf">to be present when votes are counted</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Election challengers observe as absentee ballots are processed in Detroit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carlos Osorio/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the filing provides no evidence that Republican poll workers have been denied access to vote-counting sites. Additionally, the legal bases of the claim appear weak. </p>
<p>For example, the complaint alleges Michigan is breaching the equal protection clause of the US Constitution because it is treating some voters differently from others in the state. Presumably, as the campaign alleges, this is because Democratic poll workers have been granted access to vote-counting sites that Republicans have not.</p>
<p>An appeals court judge <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/trump-biden#the-trump-team-loses-court-cases-in-georgia-and-michigan-but-gets-a-small-win-in-pennsylvania">ruled against the Trump campaign</a> on Thursday, saying the lawsuit had been filed long after the count had begun and that “the essence of the count is completed.” </p>
<h2>Pennsylvania: taking it to the Supreme Court</h2>
<p>In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign <a href="http://www.pacourts.us/assets/files/setting-7731/file-10372.pdf?cb=759f86">initiated court procedings</a> to stop the vote count. </p>
<p>The first part of the lawsuit is similar to the challenge in Michigan: the campaign is seeking to stop vote-counting until Republican poll observers are given access to the sites. </p>
<p>Deputy campaign manager Justin Clark alleges Republican poll observers were unable to observe vote counting because they were forced to be too far away – a claim conspicuously absent in the Michigan filing.</p>
<p>The Trump campaign <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/election-results?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#in-photos-the-world-is-watching">scored a victory</a> here on Thursday, with a court ordering Philadelphia election officials to grant its observers better access to vote-counting areas.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1324195509171617795"}"></div></p>
<p>The second part of the Pennsylvania action seeks to reject mail-in ballots from first-time voters who did not provide proof of identity when they registered. </p>
<p>The campaign claims Pennsylvania’s secretary of state didn’t follow the proper process in deciding to accept the ballots from these voters — a breach of federal law. However, the campaign has yet to produce evidence that significant numbers of first-time voters did not prove their identity. </p>
<p>This is perhaps the more interesting legal argument. The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/107/plaws/publ252/PLAW-107publ252.pdf">Help America Vote Act of 2002</a>, a federal law passed in response to the contested 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, does <a href="https://civilrights.findlaw.com/other-constitutional-rights/federal-voter-id-requirements-the-help-america-vote-act-hava.html">require new voters to provide identification</a> to register to vote. </p>
<p>If the Trump campaign’s lawsuit is successful, it could result in the removal of a swathe of mail-in ballots from the Pennsylvania vote tally.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/over-1-million-mail-in-ballots-could-be-rejected-in-the-us-election-and-the-rules-are-changing-by-the-day-148188">Over 1 million mail-in ballots could be rejected in the US election — and the rules are changing by the day</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In addition to these two challenges, the Trump campaign is <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-542/159651/20201104151441413_20-542%2020-574%20PA%20Mot%20to%20Intervene.pdf">appealing</a> a decision by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to allow the counting of mail-in ballots <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-north-carolina-absentee-ballots.html">received within three days after election day</a> to the US Supreme Court.</p>
<p>The US Supreme Court <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/supreme-court-wont-fast-track-gop-challenge-to-pennsylvania-ballot-deadline.html">rejected the Republican Party’s petition</a> to fast-track a challenge to the decision in October, but <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-asks-supreme-court-intervene-pennsylvania-vote-count/story?id=74026219">appeared willing to consider it after election day</a>. </p>
<p>As of yet, we do not know how many ballots could be affected by this ruling — and the counting of ballots continues.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Trump campaign announces its legal challenges to vote counting in Pennsylvania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Slocum/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Georgia: confusion created by courts takes centre stage</h2>
<p>Finally, in Georgia, the Trump campaign <a href="https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/petition-for-enforcement-of-election-law.pdf">filed a petition</a> to prevent any potential counting of late-arriving mail-in ballots. </p>
<p>In one sense, this action is the most straightforward of all the challenges. The petition seeks an order that the existing law be enforced: that all mail-in ballots arriving after 7pm on election day are excluded from the count. </p>
<p>However, the deadline for mail-in ballots in Georgia was also the subject of pre-election legal challenges — meaning voters could have been confused by the rules.</p>
<p>A court initially ruled these ballots could be counted for up to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-georgia-general-elections-voting-rights-f7ef69c7f79ddc036a14f76a00a4870d">three days after the election</a>, but this decision was then overturned by a higher court.</p>
<p>A judge <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/trump-biden#the-trump-team-loses-court-cases-in-georgia-and-michigan-but-gets-a-small-win-in-pennsylvania">dismissed</a> the Trump campaign lawsuit on Thursday, saying there was “no evidence” that mail-in ballots were received late.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1324192142097461248"}"></div></p>
<h2>Challenges are unlikely to be Trump’s path to victory</h2>
<p>For now, the Trump campaign has not launched any challenges in the other battleground states of Nevada and Arizona. </p>
<p>We may not end up seeing any challenges in these states, given the tight deadlines involved with elections. All litigation must be resolved or halted by <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/the-electoral-college.aspx">December 8</a> so the election results can be certified and the Electoral College process can continue. This culminates in the vote that legally chooses the next president on January 6.</p>
<p>The legal challenges are a long shot for the Trump campaign to change the outcome of the election. </p>
<p>If Biden is declared the winner this week and the challenges fail, there may be another repercussion. It could further undermine confidence in the electoral process — a strategy Trump has employed, with varying degrees of success, throughout the race.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah John has received funding for a National Endowment for the Humanities-funded project on 19th century US elections. She also worked on election-related projects funded by the Democracy Fund, Hewlett Foundation, Laura and John Arnold Foundation, and the RCV Resources Center.</span></em></p>Trump is contesting the results in four key battleground states. Here is what he is claiming — and his chances of success in stopping the vote count or overturning the results.Sarah John, College of Business, Government and Law, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479752020-10-22T13:16:36Z2020-10-22T13:16:36ZRight-wing extremism: The new wave of global terrorism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364095/original/file-20201018-21-1dfcfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C62%2C4605%2C2840&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this April 2020 photo, protesters carry rifles near the steps of the Michigan State Capitol building in Lansing, Mich. A plot to kidnap Michigan’s governor has put a focus on the security of governors in the United States.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In April 2020, the United Nation’s Secretary-General, António Guterres, addressed members of the <a href="https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/">Security Council</a> by warning them that the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061502">could threaten global peace and security</a>. </p>
<p>If the health crisis was not managed effectively, he feared that its negative economic consequences, along with a mismanaged government response, would provide an opportunity for white supremacists, right-wing extremists and others to promote division, social unrest and even violence to achieve their objectives. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is seen speaking at a podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was the focus of kidnapping plot by right-wing extremists.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Michigan Office of the Governor via AP, Pool, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In early October 2020, less than a month before the United States federal election, the FBI thwarted <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/michigan-whitmer-plot-1.5755273">an alleged terrorism plot</a> by right-wing extremists to kidnap the Michigan governor, storm the state capital building and commit acts of violence against law enforcement. </p>
<p>Their aim, according to court documents, was to start a “civil war leading to societal collapse.” To date, <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/10/08/view-mugshots-for-13-people-charged-after-fbi-uncovers-plot-to-kidnap-michigan-gov-whitmer/">14 men have been arrested on charges of terrorism</a> and other related crimes. Several of them are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/08/wolverine-watchmen-michigan-militia/">linked to the Wolverine Watchmen</a>, a militia-type group in Michigan that espouses anti-government and anti-law enforcement views.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1316718199862448129"}"></div></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/testimony/worldwide-threats-to-the-homeland-092420">FBI recently briefed U.S. senators</a> on the evolving concern of domestic violent extremists, groups whose ideological goals to commit violence stem from domestic influences such as social movements like <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-is-metoo-coming-to-my-workplace-eight-things-you-can-do-now-99661">#MeToo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-failure-of-multiculturalism-led-to-the-rise-of-black-lives-matter-144463">Black Lives Matter</a> and government policies. </p>
<p>The composition of many of these organizations are right-wing terror groups whose grievances are rooted in racism, misogyny, anti-Semitism, anti-LGBTQ sentiments, Islamophobia and perceptions of government overreach. Given the wide range of grievances, these groups are defined as being complex, with overlapping viewpoints from similarly minded individuals advocating different but related ideologies. </p>
<h2>Toxic masculinity</h2>
<p>Feminist researchers believe the rise of disenfranchised middle-class white males is leading to increased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1097184X17706401">toxic masculinity</a> within society, as evidenced by the increased popularity of the so-called <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/08/anti-feminism-gateway-far-right/595642/">manosphere</a> to share extremist ideas and vent their grievances. Law enforcement agencies are concerned that the manosphere and similar online communities are radicalizing young men to commit violence to achieve their goals.</p>
<p>This concern is valid, with plenty of evidence to support it.</p>
<p>According to the University of Maryland’s <a href="https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_GTD_GlobalTerrorismOverview2019_July2020.pdf">Global Terrorism Database</a>, there were 310 terrorist attacks resulting in 316 deaths (excluding perpetrators) in the United States alone from 2015 to 2019. </p>
<p>Most were right-wing extremists, including white nationalists and other alt-right movement members. This alt-right movement also contains the incel (involuntary celibate) members who are <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1751459">a growing threat</a> to women.</p>
<p>But the increase in right-wing terrorism is not just a U.S. problem. The UN Security Council’s Counterterrorism Committee says there’s been a <a href="https://www.un.org/sc/ctc/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CTED_Trends_Alert_Extreme_Right-Wing_Terrorism.pdf">320 per cent increase in right-wing terrorism globally</a> in the five years prior to 2020. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A short-haired white man in a grey sweatshirt sits in a courtroom dock." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian Brenton Harrison Tarrant, 29, sits in the dock in a New Zealand courtroom for sentencing after pleading guilty to 51 counts of murder, 40 counts of attempted murder and one count of terrorism for an attack on a mosque in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(John Kirk-Anderson/Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recent terrorist attacks in <a href="https://theconversation.com/christchurch-mosque-shootings-must-end-new-zealands-innocence-about-right-wing-terrorism-113655">New Zealand (2019)</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50003759">Germany (2019)</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/world/europe/norway-mosque-attacker-convicted.html">Norway (2019)</a> are indicators of this trend. The Centre for Research on Extremism at the University of Oslo <a href="https://www.sv.uio.no/c-rex/english/topics/online-resources/rtv-dataset/rtv_trend_report_2020.pdf">reports that both Spain and Greece</a> are growing hotbeds for right-wing terrorism and violence. </p>
<p>Canada isn’t immune to these violent extremist ideologies. Many sympathizers to these causes reside in Canada, and as such there is always a risk for attacks. But the Canadian government is taking notice and has listed <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/lstd-ntts/crrnt-lstd-ntts-en.aspx#60">Combat 18 </a> and <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/lstd-ntts/crrnt-lstd-ntts-en.aspx#59">Blood & Honour</a> as right-wing terrorist organizations.</p>
<h2>A major global security threat</h2>
<p>Right-wing extremism is of such concern that when the top international security policy-makers met at the <a href="https://securityconference.org/assets/user_upload/MunichSecurityReport2020.pdf">2019 Munich Security Conference</a>, they ranked it among space security, climate security and emerging technologies as the top global security threats. </p>
<p>It would appear as though the world is at the dawn of a new age of terrorism that’s different from before. Famed terrorism researcher David C. Rapoport argued in his influential thesis “The Four Waves of Rebel Terror and September 11” that modern terrorism can be <a href="http://anthropoetics.ucla.edu/ap0801/terror/">categorized into four distinct waves</a>. </p>
<p>The first “Anarchist Wave” began in the 1880s in Russia with the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-16941-2_5">Narodnaya Volya (“The People’s Will”)</a> conducting assassinations of political leaders. It continued until the 1920s, spreading across the Balkans and eventually into the West, influencing the creation of new terror groups within different countries. </p>
<p>The 1920s saw the beginning of the “Anti-Colonial Wave” coming out of the remnants of the First World War, when groups like the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/566849?seq=1">Irish Republican Army (IRA)</a> began using ambush tactics against police and military targets to force political change. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Masked men in black walk along a street carrying unfurled flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The IRA’s Derry Brigade in Derry, Ireland, year unknown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Flickr)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 1960s, the “New Left Wave” was created. This third wave emerged from the perceived oppression of Western countries within the developing world (like Vietnam and the Middle East). Its tactics included plane hijackings, embassy attacks and kidnappings perpetrated by groups like the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/25765949.2018.1534405">Palestine Liberation Organization </a>(PLO). </p>
<p>Finally, the 1990s witnessed the birth of the “Religious Wave” in which terror groups like <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1057610X.2013.802973">al-Qaida</a> used religious ideology as a justification to overthrow secular governments with martyrdom tactics like suicide bombings. </p>
<p>What all these waves have in common is that they last for a few decades and become infectious over time, spreading across the globe as new groups learn and adopt the successful tactics of previous ones.</p>
<h2>The fifth wave?</h2>
<p>This brings us to today’s right-wing terrorism. </p>
<p>Already observers have signalled the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/jihadist-plots-used-be-u-s-europe-s-biggest-terrorist-n1234840">decline of violent Islamic movements</a> and the rise of far-right extremist activities. Is right-wing violent extremism the new fifth wave of modern terrorism? </p>
<p>If so, there’s no doubt the negative societal impacts of COVID-19 will only help accelerate the radicalization of its adherents.</p>
<p>And if the duration of the previous four waves have taught us anything, it’s that this new one could be around for many more years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147975/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Spence does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is right-wing violent extremism the new fifth wave of modern terrorism? If so, there’s no doubt the impacts of COVID-19 will only help accelerate the radicalization of its adherents.Sean Spence, Doctorate Student - Security Risk Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1478762020-10-09T17:58:23Z2020-10-09T17:58:23ZLessons from embedding with the Michigan militia – 5 questions answered about the group allegedly plotting to kidnap a governor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362710/original/file-20201009-23-1nohjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=323%2C365%2C3473%2C2059&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A search warrant and a list of seized property from an FBI raid related to the alleged kidnapping plot.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/copy-of-a-search-warrant-and-property-list-is-left-on-a-car-news-photo/1228961096">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Details are still emerging about the men <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/gretchen-whitmer-kidnap-plot/5924691002/">arrested on federal and state charges</a> related to an <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/feds-thwart-militia-plot-kidnap-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer/5922301002/">alleged plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer</a>. Federal prosecutions can take months and even years, so it will be quite some time before a full analysis of this situation becomes possible.</p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://www.amycooter.com/research.html">scholar who has spent the last 12 years studying the U.S. domestic militia movement</a>, including <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/98077">three years of fieldwork embedded with militias in Michigan</a>, I believe several themes will remain important, wherever the details lead.</p>
<h2>1. What is this group, and where did it come from?</h2>
<p>Reports I’m hearing indicate that the group the arrested men were part of, called the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/08/wolverine-watchmen-michigan-militia/">Wolverine Watchmen</a>, likely started early this year as an offshoot of the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/24/the-militias-against-masks">Michigan Liberty Militia</a>. That group has received wide publicity for its <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/14/protesters-begin-gathering-thursday-demonstration/5186937002/">involvement in lockdown protests</a> at the state Capitol in Lansing.</p>
<p>It’s not clear why the split may have happened, but it is very common for internal splits to occur in militia groups. I’ve observed that directly in my fieldwork, and have heard the same from long-term militia members who say it dates back to the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-09-22/the-problem-with-militias-and-the-constitution">beginnings of the movement in the early 1990s</a>.</p>
<p>Sometimes these splits are for practical reasons, like groups that grow too large dividing into smaller groups to allow for more frequent meetings and closer connections. Or people tire of traveling long distances to be part of a large group, and instead start their own unit closer to home.</p>
<p>Other times, splits happen because of personality conflicts or disagreements over the direction of the group. Some members of Michigan’s <a href="https://theweek.com/articles/495680/who-are-hutaree">Hutaree militia</a>, for instance, started as members of a different group, but were pushed out. </p>
<p>The reasons I heard from militia members on both sides of that split were that those who became the Hutaree hinted at having more extreme views than the rest of the group. Leaders of the original group had also expressed concerns about <a href="https://www.amycooter.com/uploads/1/2/3/7/12374434/2_chapter_2_demographics_pictures.pdf">unsafe firearms handling</a> practices among those future Hutaree members, an offense that, if persistent, is grounds for membership revocation in many militias.</p>
<p>The reasons the Wolverines split are not yet clear – but it is possible that they had ideological disagreements.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Armed men stand on the steps of the Michigan capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362708/original/file-20201009-13-h5xfw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On April 30, armed men wearing ‘Michigan Liberty Militia’ insignia stood on the steps of the state Capitol building as part of a protest against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown orders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/armed-protesters-provide-security-as-demonstrators-take-news-photo/1211395465">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. What are their aims or goals?</h2>
<p>Traditionally, researchers have categorized militias as one of two general types: “constitutionalists,” who are largely law-abiding and make up the majority of the movement, and “millenarians,” who are more prone to conspiracy theories and violent action. </p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://theconversation.com/militias-evaluate-beliefs-action-as-president-threatens-soldiers-in-the-streets-140123">internal divisions have occurred in both these groups</a> around whether they support police, or whether they call for a widespread <a href="https://theconversation.com/militias-warning-of-excessive-federal-power-comes-true-but-where-are-they-143333">uprising against government tyranny</a>.</p>
<p>From the evidence available so far, it strikes me that the arrested men are probably more millenarian in outlook. In general, millenarian groups are <a href="https://www.amycooter.com/uploads/1/2/3/7/12374434/hutaree_threat.pdf">more likely</a> than their constitutionalist comrades to be invested in conspiracy theories, to be motivated by religious and racist views and to have members who are closely related to each other.</p>
<p>These characteristics fit with what is known so far about the men arrested in Michigan, which include <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/governor-gretchen-whitmer-kidnap-plot-militia/5921409002/">two people who share a residence</a> and two others who share a last name. For instance, at least one of them appears to have <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/what-we-know-about-wolverine-watchmen-accused-of-terror-kidnap-plot-against-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer">followed and promoted</a> QAnon, a movement that has been called a “<a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/drumoorhouse/qanon-mass-collective-delusion-buzzfeed-news-copy-desk">collective delusion</a>” rather than a conspiracy theory. That <a href="https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-publications/qanon-and-conspiracy-beliefs/">belief system includes claims</a> that “vaccinations with tracking chips will later be activated by 5G cellular networks,” “the coronavirus is a hoax,” “celebrities harvest [a chemical] from children’s bodies” and that a “global network tortures and sexually abuses children in Satanic rituals,” among other ideas.</p>
<p>A different member of the alleged conspiracy has shared online images of Norse symbols and a religion worshiping the Norse god Odin. These are not inherently racist, but many racists and white supremacists <a href="https://www.adl.org/hate-symbols?keys=norse">identify with and promote</a> the myths and iconographies of that religion, often called “Odinism.”</p>
<p>Some might suspect that the men were motivated by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/militias-warning-of-excessive-federal-power-comes-true-but-where-are-they-143333">desire to overthrow the government</a> – since they allegedly sought to kidnap a governor. But based on the information available so far, including the <a href="https://static.politico.com/e5/1d/aa6277a242e0af889ec06f7e4a12/michiganaffidavit.pdf">federal charges against them</a>, I think it is more likely that these men saw themselves as resisting government overreach and infringement on individual liberties, seeking to restore what they understood to be a constitutional leadership structure.</p>
<p>For instance, the federal charging document quotes one of the men as saying “I can see several states taking their … tyrants. Everybody takes their tyrants.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362704/original/file-20201009-17-1delzu5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After the arrests were announced, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer spoke to the public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MichiganGovernorKidnappingPlot/37be31aef6d244d488394d44506fc23f/photo">Michigan Office of the Governor via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. How much of their belief is about gender?</h2>
<p>Overt sexism is not usually part of militia groups’ principles, but militias are dominated by men, with most groups having no more than <a href="https://www.amycooter.com/uploads/1/2/3/7/12374434/2_chapter_2_demographics_pictures.pdf">10% women</a> among their membership. Many of those men believe in largely traditional roles, where men are the protectors and breadwinners of the family, and women take more supporting and child-rearing roles. </p>
<p>Those beliefs can be amplified among people who follow certain versions of Odinism that are connected to white supremacy. From their perspective, It’s a way to increase the numbers of strong <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/190195?seq=1">white families and white babies</a>.</p>
<p>The document detailing the federal charges says the men <a href="https://static.politico.com/e5/1d/aa6277a242e0af889ec06f7e4a12/michiganaffidavit.pdf">used sexist language</a> when discussing the governor, including the word “bitch.” That seems to confirm that their anger may have been sparked not just by Whitmer’s lockdown orders, but also the fact that she’s a woman.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1251169217531056130"}"></div></p>
<h2>4. Was this influenced by President Donald Trump?</h2>
<p>It is <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-liberate-michigan-tweet-plot-kidnap-gretchen-whitmer-governor-1537719">impossible to say definitively</a> whether these men were inspired by anything Pres. Donald Trump has said or done.</p>
<p>However, the president has used inflammatory language <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/17/trump-targets-whitmer-after-she-criticizes-federal-covid-19-response/5066695002/">criticizing Whitmer</a> – including a tweet just two days after a <a href="https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/2020/04/15/michigan-gridlock-protest-coronavirus-lansing-mi-pictures-videos/5137461002/">large anti-lockdown protest</a> <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/15/operation-gridlock-thousands-protest-whitmers-stay/">including armed protesters</a> surrounded the state Capitol building. That <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/17/trump-tweets-liberate-michigan-other-states-democratic-governors/5152037002/">tweet, on April 17, 2020, simply declared</a> “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!”</p>
<p>Around the same time, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/facebook-approached-fbi-about-michigan-militia-six-months-ago/ar-BB19QjP0">Facebook reportedly alerted the FBI</a> to online discussions that related to this group’s alleged plot.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/whitmer-denounces-right-wing-hate-groups-trump-complicit/5925981002/">Whitmer herself</a> has said the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/michigan-governor-blames-trump-for-fostering-hate-groups">president’s rhetoric is partially responsible</a> for the plot, including his <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/proud-boys-stand-back-and-stand-by-trump-refuses-to-condemn-white-supremacists/">refusal to denounce white supremacists</a> during the Sept. 29 presidential debate.</p>
<p>In the wake of the arrests, Trump continued to attack Whitmer, saying she had done “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1314377607379640320">a terrible job</a>” battling the coronavirus pandemic and accusing her of not being grateful enough to “My Justice Department” for its work on the case.</p>
<h2>5. Were they a serious threat?</h2>
<p>As a specialist on Michigan militias, I’ve been asked several times since the news broke whether this group posed a real threat, in terms of being likely to act on its plan and kidnap or harm Gov. Whitmer. </p>
<p>Members of other militia groups in the state reported to me after the arrests that they do not believe these men were “smart enough” to pull off anything like this. </p>
<p>I heard similar comments about the suspected weaknesses of Hutaree members a decade ago. In 2010, nine members of that group, another Michigan militia, were arrested on federal charges that they <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/mysterious-wolverine-watchmen-militia-group-flew-under-radar/5927896002/">planned a series of events to kill large numbers of police officers</a>. Those charges were ultimately dismissed by a federal judge who said <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crime-militia-idUSBRE82S1EX20120329">all they were doing was talking</a>, though a few of the group were convicted of more minor charges involving weapons possession. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>The involvement of informants and undercover agents may also raise concerns about <a href="https://theintercept.com/2015/02/26/fbi-manufacture-plots-terrorism-isis-grave-threats/">FBI practices</a>, which have been <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/fbi-entrapment">criticized</a> as <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/07/fbi-terrorist-informants/">fabricating entire plots</a> to entrap innocent people in cases that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/16/fbi-entrapment-fake-terror-plots">alleged Islamic terrorism</a>.</p>
<p>These are the issues to keep an eye on, as the details emerge and the case unfolds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147876/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Cooter is a previous recipient of a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship.</span></em></p>Much remains unknown so far about an alleged plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, but five themes will remain relevant no matter how events unfold.Amy Cooter, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.