tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/natural-disasters-1243/articlesNatural disasters – The Conversation2024-03-25T10:06:51Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259532024-03-25T10:06:51Z2024-03-25T10:06:51ZFighting every wildfire ensures the big fires are more extreme, and may harm forests’ ability to adapt to climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583558/original/file-20240321-26-8oqr15.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C13%2C2982%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme fires leave forests struggling to recover in a warming world.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.markkreiderphoto.com/portfolio/wilderness-fire">Mark Kreider</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the U.S., wildland firefighters are able to stop about <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detailfull/r5/home/?cid=FSEPRD1064021">98% of all wildfires</a> before the fires have burned even 100 acres. That may seem comforting, but decades of quickly suppressing fires has had unintended consequences.</p>
<p>Fires are a natural part of many landscapes globally. When forests aren’t allowed to burn, they <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-years-of-fighting-every-wildfire-helped-fuel-the-western-megafires-of-today-163165">become more dense</a>, and dead <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.177.4044.139">branches, leaves and other biomass</a> accumulate, leaving more fuel for the next fire. This buildup leads to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-years-of-fighting-every-wildfire-helped-fuel-the-western-megafires-of-today-163165">more extreme fires that are even harder to put out</a>. That’s why land managers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2433">set controlled burns</a> and thin forests to clear out the undergrowth.</p>
<p>However, fuel accumulation isn’t the only consequence of fire suppression.</p>
<p>Fire suppression also disproportionately reduces certain types of fire. In a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46702-0">new study</a>, my colleagues <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7G6Y7GsAAAAJ&hl=en">and I</a> show how this effect, known as the suppression bias, compounds the impacts of fuel accumulation and climate change.</p>
<h2>What happened to all the low-intensity fires?</h2>
<p>Most wildfires are low-intensity. They ignite when conditions aren’t too dry or windy, and they can often be quickly extinguished.</p>
<p>The 2% of fires that escape suppression are those that are more extreme and much harder to fight. They <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jof/103.4.179">account for about 98% of the burned area</a> in a typical year.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/z_4CueBBYJs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The author and colleagues discuss changing wildfire in Montana and Idaho’s Bitterroot Mountains. By Mark Kreider.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In other words, trying to put out all wildfires doesn’t reduce the total amount of fire equally – instead, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-015-0033-8">it limits low-intensity fires while extreme fires still burn</a>. This effect is worsened by climate change.</p>
<h2>Too much suppression makes fires more severe</h2>
<p>In our study, we used a fire modeling simulation to explore the effects of the fire suppression bias and see how they compared to the effects of global warming and fuel accumulation alone.</p>
<p>Fuel accumulation and global warming both <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/climate/climate-change-un-wildfire-report.html">inherently make fires more severe</a>. But over thousands of simulated fires, we found that allowing forests to burn only under the very worst conditions increased fire severity by the same amount as more than a century’s worth of fuel accumulation or 21st-century climate change.</p>
<p>The suppression bias also changes the way plants and animals interact with fire.</p>
<p>By removing low-intensity fires, humans may be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102320-095612">changing the course of evolution</a>. Without exposure to low-intensity fires, species can lose traits crucial for surviving and recovering from such events.</p>
<p>After extreme fires, landscapes have fewer seed sources and less shade. New seedlings have a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">harder time becoming established</a>, and for those that do, the hotter and drier conditions <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">reduce their chance of survival</a>. </p>
<p>In contrast, low-intensity fires free up space and resources for new growth, while still retaining living trees and other biological legacies that support seedlings in their vulnerable initial years.</p>
<p>By quickly putting out low-intensity fires and allowing only extreme fires to burn, conventional suppression reduces the opportunities for climate-adapted plants to establish and help ecosystems adjust to changes like global warming.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583472/original/file-20240321-28-2olvh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583472/original/file-20240321-28-2olvh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583472/original/file-20240321-28-2olvh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583472/original/file-20240321-28-2olvh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583472/original/file-20240321-28-2olvh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583472/original/file-20240321-28-2olvh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583472/original/file-20240321-28-2olvh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Firefighters keep watch for smoke from a fire tower in the Coeur d'Alene National Forest, Idaho, in 1932.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usforestservice/30162883617/in/album-72157669003030369/">Forest Service photo by K. D. Swan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Suppression makes burned area increase faster</h2>
<p>As the climate becomes hotter and drier, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726">more area is burning in wildfires</a>. If suppression removes fire, it should help slow this increase, right?</p>
<p>In fact, we found it does just the opposite.</p>
<p>We found that while conventional suppression led to less total area burning, the yearly burned area increased more than three times faster under conventional suppression than under less aggressive suppression efforts. The amount of area burned doubled every 14 years with conventional fire suppression under simulated climate change, instead of every 44 years when low- and moderate-intensity fires were allowed to burn. That raises concerns for how quickly people and ecosystems will have to adapt to extreme fires in the future.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two charts show fire area increasing faster in a warming climate climate under conventional fire suppression." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583255/original/file-20240320-28-pobf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With conventional fire suppression, the average fire size will increase faster as the planet warms than it would under a less aggressive approach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Kreider</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fact that the amount of area burned is increasing is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726">undoubtedly driven by climate change</a>. But our study shows that the rate of this increase may also be a result of conventional fire management.</p>
<p>The near total suppression of fires over the last century means that even a little additional fire in a more fire-prone future can create big changes. As climate change continues to <a href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-mountain-forests-burning-more-now-than-any-time-in-the-past-2-000-years-162383">fuel more fires</a>, the relative increase in area burned will be much bigger.</p>
<p>This puts more stress on communities as they adapt to increased extreme wildfires, from dealing with <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">more wildfire smoke</a> to even <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fastest-population-growth-in-the-wests-wildland-urban-interface-is-in-areas-most-vulnerable-to-wildfires-173410">changing where people can live</a>. </p>
<h2>A way forward</h2>
<p>To address the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/wildfire-crisis">wildfire crisis</a>, fire managers can be less aggressive in suppressing low- and moderate-intensity fires when it is safe to do so. They can also increase the use of <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/prescribed-fire">prescribed fire</a> and <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/rethinking-wildfire">cultural burning</a> to clear away brush and other fuel for fires.</p>
<p>These low-intensity fires will not only reduce the risk of future extreme fires, but they also will create conditions that favor the establishment of species better suited to the changing climate, thereby helping ecosystems adapt to global warming.</p>
<p>Coexisting with wildfire requires developing technologies and approaches that enable the safe management of wildfires under moderate burning conditions. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46702-0">Our study</a> shows that this may be just as necessary as other interventions, such as reducing the number of fires <a href="https://theconversation.com/humans-ignite-almost-every-wildfire-that-threatens-homes-145997">unintentionally started by human activities</a> and mitigating climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kreider receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the USDA Forest Service. </span></em></p>A new study offers a rare window into the hidden effects of aggressive fire suppression that go beyond fuel accumulation. The practice may even change the course of forest evolution.Mark Kreider, Ph.D. Candidate in Forest and Conservation Science, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244952024-03-05T21:19:45Z2024-03-05T21:19:45ZThe Anthropocene is not an epoch − but the age of humans is most definitely underway<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580004/original/file-20240305-26-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C180%2C5727%2C3599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Human influence on the climate started even before the Industrial Revolution.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/factoryscape-in-the-potteries-smoke-from-chimneys-in-the-news-photo/1036135896?adppopup=true">Print Collector/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When people talk about the “Anthropocene,” they typically picture the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-anthropocene-a-very-short-introduction-9780198792987?cc=us&lang=en&">vast impact human societies are having</a> on the planet, from <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">rapid declines in biodiversity</a> to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">increases in Earth’s temperature</a> by burning fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Such massive planetary changes did not begin all at once at any single place or time.</p>
<p>That’s why <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">it was controversial</a> when, after over a decade of study and debate, an international committee of scientists – <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">the Anthropocene Working Group</a> – proposed to mark the Anthropocene as an epoch in the <a href="https://stratigraphy.org/chart#latest-version">geologic time scale</a> starting precisely in 1952. The marker was radioactive fallout from hydrogen bomb tests.</p>
<p>On March 4, 2024, the commission responsible for recognizing time units within our most recent period of geologic time – the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/">Subcommission on Quarternary Stratigraphy</a> – rejected that proposal, with 12 of 18 members voting no. These are the scientists most expert at reconstructing Earth’s history from the evidence in rocks. They determined that adding an Anthropocene Epoch – and terminating the Holocene Epoch – was not supported by the standards used to define epochs.</p>
<p>To be clear, this vote has no bearing on the overwhelming evidence that human societies are indeed transforming this planet.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://ges.umbc.edu/ellis/">an ecologist who studies global change</a>, I served on the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">Anthropocene Working Group</a> from its start in 2009 until 2023. <a href="https://anthroecology.org/why-i-resigned-from-the-anthropocene-working-group/">I resigned</a> because I was convinced that this proposal defined the Anthropocene so narrowly that it would damage broader scientific and public understanding. </p>
<p>By tying the start of the human age to such a recent and devastating event – nuclear fallout – this proposal risked sowing confusion about the deep history of how humans are transforming the Earth, from climate change and biodiversity losses to pollution by plastics and tropical deforestation.</p>
<h2>The original idea of the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>In the years since the term Anthropocene was coined by Nobel Prize-winning <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/15445/2023/">atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen</a> in 2000, it has increasingly defined our times as an age of human-caused planetary transformation, from climate change to biodiversity loss, plastic pollution, megafires and much more.</p>
<p>Crutzen originally proposed that the Anthropocene began in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/415023a">latter part of the 18th century</a>, as a product of the Industrial age. He also noted that setting a more precise start date would be “<a href="https://www.mpic.de/3865097/the-anthropocene">arbitrary</a>.” </p>
<p>According to geologists, we humans have been living in the Holocene Epoch for about 11,700 years, since the end of the last ice age. </p>
<p>Human societies began influencing Earth’s biodiversity and climate through agriculture <a href="https://cligs.vt.edu/blog/climate-change--a-new-twist-on-a-very-old-story.html">thousands of years ago</a>. These changes began to accelerate about five centuries ago with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-began-with-species-exchange-between-old-and-new-worlds-38674">colonial collision of the old and new worlds</a>. And, as Crutzen noted, Earth’s climate really began to change with the increasing use of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Europe/The-Industrial-Revolution">fossil fuels in the Industrial Revolution</a> that began in the late 1700s.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart reflecting timing of the ‘Anthropocene Event’ shows how various human activities have affected the planet over mlllennia in the recent geologic time scale. Click the image to enlarge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">Philip Gibbard, et al., 2022</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Anthropocene as an epoch</h2>
<p>The rationale for proposing to define an Anthropocene Epoch starting around 1950 came from overwhelming evidence that many of the most consequential changes of the human age shifted upward dramatically about that time in a so-called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785">Great Acceleration” identified by climate scientist Will Steffen</a> and others. </p>
<p>Radioisotopes like plutonium from hydrogen bomb tests conducted around this time left clear traces in soils, sediments, trees, corals and other potential geological records across the planet. The plutonium peak in the sediments of Crawford Lake in Ontario, Canada – <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">chosen as the “golden spike</a>” for determining the start of the Anthropocene Epoch – is well marked in the lake bed’s exceptionally clear sediment record. </p>
<h2>The Anthropocene Epoch is dead; long live the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>So why was the Anthropocene Epoch rejected? And what happens now?</p>
<p>The proposal to add an Anthropocene Epoch to the geological time scale was rejected for a variety of reasons, none of them related to the fact that human societies are changing this planet. In fact, the opposite is true. </p>
<p>If there is one main reason why geologists rejected this proposal, it is because its recent date and shallow depth are too narrow to encompass the deeper evidence of human-caused planetary change. As geologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa7297">Bill Ruddiman and others wrote in Science Magazine in 2015</a>, “Does it really make sense to define the start of a human-dominated era millennia after most forests in arable regions had been cut for agriculture?”</p>
<p>Discussions of an Anthropocene Epoch aren’t over yet. But it is very unlikely that there will be an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration anytime soon.</p>
<p>The lack of a formal definition of an Anthropocene Epoch will not be a problem for science. </p>
<p>A scientific definition of the Anthropocene is already widely available in the form of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">the Anthropocene Event</a>, which basically defines Anthropocene <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104340">in simple geological terms</a> as “a complex, transformative, and ongoing event analogous to the Great Oxidation Event and others in the geological record.”</p>
<p>So, despite the “no” vote on the Anthropocene Epoch, the Anthropocene will continue to be as useful as it has been for more than 20 years in stimulating discussions and research into the nature of human transformation of this planet. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to clarify that a new attempt at an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration is unlikely soon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erle C. Ellis is a former member of the Anthropocene Working Group of the International Commission on Stratigraphy. He is a member of the American Association of Geographers.</span></em></p>Scientists have been debating the start of the Anthropocene Epoch for 15 years. I was part of those discussions, and I agree with the vote rejecting it.Erle C. Ellis, Professor of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249042024-03-04T13:36:31Z2024-03-04T13:36:31ZTornadoes, wildfires and other disasters tell a story of vulnerability and recovery in America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579274/original/file-20240301-48072-ldn4z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C66%2C6300%2C4121&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Recovering after tornadoes, particularly in small towns, has many challenges. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SevereWeatherMississippi/61b370c8d262411c808d90ce32510603/photo">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People often think of disasters as great equalizers. After all, a tornado, wildfire or hurricane doesn’t discriminate against those in its path. But the consequences for those impacted are not “one-size-fits-all.”</p>
<p>That’s evident <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/weather/indiana-ohio-storm-tornado-damage-friday/index.html">in recent storms</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/texas-fires-with-over-1-million-acres-of-grassland-burned-cattle-ranchers-face-struggles-ahead-to-find-and-feed-their-herds-224840">wildfire disasters</a> and in the <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/household-pulse-phase-feb22.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a>’s newly released results from its national household surveys showing <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data.html">who was displaced by disasters in 2023</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, the Census Bureau estimates that nearly 2.5 million Americans had to leave their homes because of disasters in 2023, whether for a short period or much longer. However, a closer look at demographics in the survey reveals much more about disaster risk in America and who is vulnerable.</p>
<p>It suggests, <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-ca/Disasters%3A+A+Sociological+Approach-p-9780745671017">as researchers have also found</a>, that people with the fewest resources, as well as those who have disabilities or have been marginalized, were more likely to be displaced from their homes by disasters than other people.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walking in thigh-deep water crosses a road carrying a large bag. A National Guard truck brought her to the home to retrieve medications four days after the hurricane." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579280/original/file-20240301-26-g8s75y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disasters like hurricanes can cut electricity and running water to homes for weeks at a time, and can make access to retrieve medication and belongings for those displaced nearly impossible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HurricaneIdaPhotoGallery/2490e0f63dcf439cb612f8c1d2ce1c21/photo">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Decades of <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-ca/Disasters%3A+A+Sociological+Approach-p-9780745671017">disaster research</a>, including from our team at the University of Delaware’s <a href="https://www.drc.udel.edu/">Disaster Research Center</a>, make at least two things crystal clear: First, people’s social circumstances – such as the resources available to them, how much they can rely on others for help, and challenges they face in their daily life – can lead them to experience disasters differently compared to others affected by the same event. And second, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Social-Vulnerability-to-Disasters/Thomas-Phillips-Lovekamp-Fothergill/p/book/9781466516373">disasters exacerbate</a> existing vulnerabilities.</p>
<p>This research also shows how disaster <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/after-great-disasters/9781558443310">recovery</a> is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.4337/9781839100307.00009">social process</a>. Recovery is not a “thing,” but rather it is linked to how we talk about recovery, make decisions about recovery and prioritize some activities over others.</p>
<h2>Lessons from past disasters</h2>
<p>Sixty years ago, the recovery period after the destructive 1964 Alaskan earthquake was driven by a range of <a href="https://udspace.udel.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/49cb0325-3638-49ae-9687-3f3ca1aabf1b/content">economic and political interests</a>, not simply technical factors or on need. That kind of influence continues in disaster recovery today. Even disaster buyout programs can be based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2272-5">economic considerations that burden under-resourced communities</a>.</p>
<p>This recovery process is made even more difficult because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04463-1">policymakers often underappreciate</a> the immense difficulties residents face during recovery.</p>
<p>Following Hurricane Katrina, sociologist Alexis Merdjanoff found that property ownership status <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2013.04.004">affected psychological distress and displacement</a>, with displaced renters showing higher levels of emotional distress than homeowners. Lack of autonomy in decisions about how to repair or rebuild can play a role, further highlighting disparate experiences during disaster recovery.</p>
<h2>What the Census shows about vulnerability</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/household-pulse-phase-feb22.html">2023 census data</a> consistently showed that socially vulnerable groups reported being displaced from their homes at higher rates than other groups.</p>
<p>People over 65 had a higher rate of being displaced than younger people. So did Hispanic and Black Americans, people with less than a high school education and those with low household incomes or who were struggling with employment compared to other groups. While the Census Bureau describes the data as experimental and notes that some sample sizes are small, the differences stand out and are consistent with what researchers have found.</p>
<p>Low-income and marginalized communities are often in areas at higher risk of flooding from storms or may <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2021-hurricane-season-showed-us-isnt-prepared-as-climate-related-disasters-push-people-deeper-into-poverty-169075">lack investment in storm protection measures</a>.</p>
<p>The morass of bureaucracy and conflicting information can also be a barrier to a swift recovery. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a polo shirt with a shirt reading " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579272/original/file-20240301-20-knv4c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">FEMA typically sets up recovery centers near disaster sites to help residents apply for federal aid. But getting to centers like this one near Lahaina, Hawaii, where a fire destroyed much of the town in 2023, can be difficult for people displaced by disasters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEMA_-_7977434.jpg">Department of Homeland Security</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After Hurricane Sandy, people in New Jersey complained about complex paperwork and what felt to them like ever-changing rules. They bemoaned their housing recovery as, in researchers’ words, a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04463-1">muddled, inconsistent experience that lacked discernible rationale</a>”.</p>
<p>Residents who don’t know how to find information about disaster recovery assistance or can’t take time away from work to accumulate the necessary documents and meet with agency representatives can have a harder time getting quick help from federal and state agencies.</p>
<p>Disabilities also affect displacement. Of those people who were displaced for some length of time in 2023, those with significant difficulty hearing, seeing or walking reported being displaced at higher rates than those without disabilities.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05638-8">Prolonged loss of electricity or water</a> due to an ice storm, wildfire or grid overload during a heat emergency can force those with medical conditions to leave even if their neighbors are able to stay. </p>
<p>That can also create challenges for their recovery. Displacement can leave vulnerable disaster survivors isolated from their usual support systems and health care providers. It can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000116">isolate those with limited mobility</a> from disaster assistance.</p>
<h2>Helping communities build resilience</h2>
<p>Crucial research efforts are underway to better help people who may be struggling the most after disasters.</p>
<p>For example, our center was part of an interdisciplinary team that developed a <a href="https://www.copewellmodel.org/">framework to predict community resilience</a> after disasters and help identify investments that could be made to bolster resilience. It outlines ways to identify gaps in community functioning, like health care and transportation, before disaster strikes. And it helps determine recovery strategies that would have the most impact.</p>
<p>Shifts in weather and climate and a mobile population mean that people’s exposure to hazards are constantly shifting and often increasing. The <a href="https://www.drc.udel.edu/cheer/">Coastal Hazard, Equity, Economic Prosperity, and Resilience Hub</a>, which our center is also part of, is developing tools to help communities best ensure resilience and strong economic conditions for all residents without shortchanging the need to prioritize equity and well-being. </p>
<p>We believe that when communities experience disasters, they should not have to choose among thriving economically, ensuring all residents can recover and reducing risk of future threats. There must be a way to account for all three.</p>
<p>Understanding that disasters affect people in different ways is only a first step toward ensuring that the most vulnerable residents receive the support they need. Involving community members from disproportionately vulnerable groups to identify challenges is another. But those, alone, are not enough.</p>
<p>If we as a society care about those who contribute to our communities, we must find the political and organizational will to act to reduce the challenges reflected in the census and disaster research.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published March 4, 2024, has been updated with severe storms in mid-March.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tricia Wachtendorf is co-director of the University of Delaware Disaster Research Center.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Kendra is co-director of the University of Delaware Disaster Research Center.</span></em></p>Census data and research show all things are not equal in disaster displacement, as two experts in disaster recovery explain.Tricia Wachtendorf, Professor of Sociology and Director, Disaster Research Center, University of DelawareJames Kendra, Director, Disaster Research Center and Professor, Public Policy & Administration, University of DelawareLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241512024-02-27T19:06:16Z2024-02-27T19:06:16ZWhere does lightning strike? New maps pinpoint 36.8 million yearly ground strike points in unprecedented detail<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578115/original/file-20240226-30-8qy4my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C18%2C5559%2C3511&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lightning strikes near St. George, Utah.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/curtain-of-lightning-over-city-royalty-free-image/186538582">jerbarber/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been a warm day, maybe even a little humid, and the tall clouds in the distance remind you of cauliflower. You hear a sharp crack, like the sound of a batter hitting a home run, or a low rumble reminiscent of a truck driving down the highway. A distant thunderstorm, alive with lightning, is making itself known.</p>
<p>Lightning flashes in thunderstorms <a href="https://indd.adobe.com/view/ddf9619e-36e0-46b4-981d-3458b2532b98">at least 60 times per second</a> somewhere around the planet, sometimes even <a href="https://www.vaisala.com/en/blog/2023-03/revising-record-record-lightning-north-pole">near the North Pole</a>. </p>
<p>Each giant spark of electricity travels through the atmosphere at 200,000 miles per hour. It is hotter than the surface of the sun and delivers thousands of times more electricity than the power outlet that charges your smartphone. That’s why lightning is so dangerous.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0032.1">Lightning kills or injures about 250,000 people</a> around the world every year, most frequently in developing countries, where many people work outside without lightning-safe shelters nearby. In the United States, <a href="http://lightningsafetycouncil.org/LSC-LightningFatalities.html">an average of 28 people were killed by lightning every year between 2006 and 2023</a>. Each year, insurance pays about <a href="https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-lightning">US$1 billion</a> in claims for lightning damage, and around <a href="https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics/lightning-caused">4 million acres of land</a> burn in lightning-caused wildfires.</p>
<p><iframe id="4FALI" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4FALI/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Yet, estimates of U.S. lightning strikes have varied widely, from about <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/new-lightning-tool-tells-striking-story">25 million a year</a>, a number meteorologists have cited since the 1990s, to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/lightning/victimdata.html">40 million a year</a>, reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That complicates lightning safety and protection efforts.</p>
<p>I’m a meteorologist whose research focuses on <a href="https://experts.news.wisc.edu/experts/chris-vagasky">understanding lightning behavior</a>. In a new study, my colleagues and I used six years of data from a national lightning detection network that we believe has become precise enough to offer a more accurate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0241.1">picture of lightning strikes across the U.S.</a> That knowledge is essential for improving forecasts and damage prevention.</p>
<h2>How much lightning strikes the US</h2>
<p>To get a clearer picture of how often lightning strikes, it helps to define what a lightning strike is. </p>
<p>Imagine looking out a window at a thunderstorm with cloud-to-ground lightning nearby. The lightning appears to flicker. </p>
<p>A lightning flash is all the cloud-to-ground lightning that occurs within 1 second and a 6-mile radius. Each flicker is a lightning stroke. Each stroke can hit one or more ground strike points, and there can be <a href="https://twitter.com/BBuffingtonNews/status/1126701479232823296?s=20">multiple strokes in the same channel</a>.</p>
<p>Lightning is a large electrical discharge trying to dissipate the electricity in a cloud, so if there is a lot of electricity built up, there can be a lot of lightning to get rid of it all.</p>
<p>Over six years of data from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0215.1">National Lightning Detection Network</a>, we found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0241.1">the U.S. averages</a> 23.4 million flashes, 55.5 million strokes and 36.8 million ground strike points each year. </p>
<h2>Where lightning strikes most often</h2>
<p>The basic ingredients for thunderstorms are warm and moist air near the ground with cooler, drier air above it and a way to lift the warm moist air. Anywhere those ingredients are present, lightning can occur. </p>
<p>This happens most frequently near the Gulf Coast, where the sea breeze helps trigger thunderstorms most days in the summer. Florida in particular is a hot spot for cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area alone had over 120,000 lightning strokes in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows the most activity in the Gulf Coast states, lessening moving north and westward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578331/original/file-20240227-22-uf79br.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frequency of lightning ground strikes per year, averaged over six years, shows the most activity along the Gulf Coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0241.1">Vagasky, et al, 2024</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Central and Southern U.S. aren’t quite as lightning prone, but they tend to have more thunderstorms and lightning strikes than the North and West of the country, though lightning in the West can be especially destructive <a href="https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics/lightning-caused">when it sparks wildfires</a>.</p>
<p>The cool waters of the Pacific Ocean, meanwhile, tend to mean few thunderstorms along the West Coast.</p>
<h2>Counting lightning strikes</h2>
<p>To be able to count how much lightning is hitting the ground and where it is doing so, you have to be able to detect it. Luckily, cloud-to-ground lightning is fairly easy to detect – in fact, you may have done it.</p>
<p>When lightning flashes, it acts like a giant radio antenna that sends electromagnetic waves – radio waves – around the world at the speed of light. If you have an AM radio station on during a thunderstorm, you may hear a lot of static.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0215.1">National Lightning Detection Network</a> uses strategically placed antennas to listen for these radio waves produced by lightning. It’s now able to locate at least 97% of the cloud-to-ground lightning that occurs across the U.S.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows the most activity in the Gulf Coast states, lessening over the Great Plains while still high in the mountains." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578369/original/file-20240227-26-hdvklo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The average number of cloud-to-ground lightning strike points per flash across the United States between 2017 and 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0241.1">Vagasky, et al, 2024</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The number of lightning strikes varies year to year depending on the prevailing weather patterns during the spring and summer months, when lightning is most common. There isn’t enough accurate U.S. data yet to say whether there is a trend toward more or less lightning. However, changes in lightning frequency and location can be an indicator of climate change affecting storms and precipitation, which is why the World Meteorological Organization designated lightning as an “<a href="https://gcos.wmo.int/en/essential-climate-variables/about">essential climate variable</a>.”</p>
<h2>Better data can boost safety</h2>
<p>Meteorologists and emergency management teams can use this new data and our analysis to better understand how lightning typically affects their regions. That can help them better forecast risks and prepare the public for thunderstorm hazards. Engineers are also using these results to create better <a href="https://webstore.iec.ch/preview/info_iec62305-3%7Bed2.0%7Den.pdf">lightning protection standards</a> to keep people and property safe.</p>
<p>Lightning strikes are still unpredictable. So, to stay safe, remember: When thunder roars, go indoors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224151/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Vagasky previously worked for Vaisala, owner-operator of the National Lightning Detection Network</span></em></p>A new study shows how often lightning strikes and how it behaves, often hitting the ground with multiple strikes from the same flash.Chris Vagasky, Meteorologist, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230342024-02-08T16:38:14Z2024-02-08T16:38:14ZIn Chile, huge wildfires have killed at least 131 people – but one village was almost untouched<p>Chile has experienced one of the worst fire-related disasters in its history. A series of huge forest fires burned from February 1 to 5, leaving at least <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/06/chile-wildfires-death-toll-rises-valparaiso-vina-del-mar">131 people dead</a> – and this number will probably increase as charred bodies are collected and severely injured people die.</p>
<p>But even this is only the tip of the iceberg. There are people with burns, post-traumatic stress and other mental health disorders. Existing diseases have been exacerbated by service interruptions, and people have lost their homes and livelihoods. Also, the long-term effects from smoke inhalation are yet to be seen.</p>
<p>This is not really a “climate disaster”, nor even a “natural disaster”. It is a disaster mainly caused by our decisions and lack of preparation to deal with a more extreme climate hazard. As an <a href="https://www.ypalmeiro.org/">academic public health researcher</a> from Chile, I think there are lessons we can learn from these fires.</p>
<p>So, why did things become so deadly? </p>
<h2>Fire-prone conditions</h2>
<p>The weather, of course, played a role. Meteorological conditions have made Chile <a href="https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis_current_situation/index.html">very prone to fires</a> this summer, especially in this long-and-thin country’s central region, where it is warm enough for fires yet wet enough for there to be vegetation to burn.</p>
<p>Temperatures were high, above 35°C for more than three days before and during the fires in some places. Conditions were dry on top of a longer-term mega-drought, and relative humidity was low. It was also very windy. </p>
<p>It is very likely that these conditions have been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-52481-x">influenced by El Niño</a>, on top of human-induced climate change. However, even when fire danger is extremely high, fires can still be prevented from happening, expanding, or being deadly. But to achieve this, other factors are needed in this formula: social factors.</p>
<h2>Formula for a (not natural) perfect disaster</h2>
<p>My colleague Ilan Kelman has <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistans-floods-are-a-disaster-but-they-didnt-have-to-be-190027">defined disasters</a> as “where the ability of people to cope with a hazard or its impacts by using their own resources is exceeded”. This is exactly what happened in Chile: a deadly combination of an extreme climate hazard and inadequate social preparation. </p>
<p>In addition, regional authorities and the national government have suggested that some fires were ignited <a href="https://www.latercera.com/nacional/noticia/confirman-hipotesis-de-intencionalidad-en-incendios-en-la-region-de-valparaiso-peritajes-clave-arrojan-presencia-de-acelerantes/SHN2LVBMWBFBPB4OWS4HEP7DPA/">intentionally</a>, as there were four simultaneous outbreaks and a state prosecutor claims that fire accelerants paraffin and benzine have been discovered. No arrests have been made.</p>
<p>The most devastating fires occurred in urbanising areas with significant land-use change, and where urban planning regulation has always been <a href="https://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/dpublog/2020/05/11/chile-protect-the-campamentos/">inadequate</a> – leading to houses with no building regulation, and narrow streets with limited access to emergency services when needed.</p>
<p>There was also limited preparation for the expected hot season, either in the form of seasonal public campaigns for heatwaves and fires, or evacuation routes and plans. </p>
<p>Chile’s national early warning system, which sends a mass alert via text, audio and vibration to everyone who uses a compatible mobile device, also faced challenges. Several antennas were affected by the fires and not properly working, so many people did not receive the message on time. And those messages that were sent only said “evacuate”, so many people did not know where to go. This led to traffic jams and bottlenecks, some of which became engulfed in the middle of the fires.</p>
<h2>Climate-related hazards shouldn’t turn disastrous</h2>
<p>Climate change means it is likely that Chile will be <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Central_and_South_America.pdf">even more prone</a> to huge fires in future. However, the human health risks this poses can be reduced by adequate preparedness and response plans.</p>
<p>Villa Botania, near the city of Quilpué in central Chile, emerged from these fires as an interesting example to learn from. This little village was surrounded by flames but was <a href="https://twitter.com/carcubillos/status/1753998166825783530">almost unaffected</a>. </p>
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<p>That’s because residents were prepared. A <a href="https://juntosprevenimos.cl/">community-led project</a> had managed waste and controlled vegetation and weeds, to ensure there was less flammable material when a fire passed by. Villa Botania demonstrated that a climate-related hazard does not always end in a massive human disaster, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-rarely-hear-about-the-disasters-that-were-avoided-but-theres-a-lot-we-can-learn-from-them-217850">lessons can be learned</a> from this.</p>
<p>Chile recently created a <a href="https://www.bcn.cl/leychile/navegar?idNorma=1157003">national policy on disaster risk reduction</a>, but it still needs to factor disaster risk and climate change into its planning regulations. This can save lives, as shown by the success since the 1970s of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-017-0302-8">anti-seismic building regulations</a> in this earthquake-prone country.</p>
<p>In a changing climate, we need to prepare the systems that prevent a disaster from occurring in the first place. This is sometimes forgotten, as most resources go to the response phase once it has occurred. However, Chile’s recent fires have again demonstrated that the twin threat of changing climate and inadequate social preparedness poses a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/fulltext">serious danger to the health and wellbeing of many people</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yasna Palmeiro Silva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This was no ‘natural disaster’. There are lessons to learn from areas that survived the fires.Yasna Palmeiro Silva, Research Fellow, Institute for Global Health, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219592024-02-07T16:13:40Z2024-02-07T16:13:40ZWhy Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies<p>Canadians are facing larger disasters on a more frequent basis. There is no doubt that some of these recent and future events are the result of an increasingly unstable climate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fiona-hits-atlantic-canada-climate-change-means-the-region-will-see-more-frequent-storms-191313">Fiona hits Atlantic Canada: Climate change means the region will see more frequent storms</a>
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<p>Whenever more people become exposed by living in hazardous parts of the country — including those not directly attributed to climate change such as earthquakes or train derailments — their disaster risk also increases. This combines with social and economic changes, like poverty and aging populations, to increase community vulnerability. </p>
<p>Despite these evolving challenges, our emergency management systems remain strongly rooted in <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/hv%20551.5.c2%20m363%201998-eng.pdf">civil defence</a> practices developed during the Cold War. These systems <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-canadas-fractured-emergency.pdf">are over-stressed</a> by recent events and <a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">continue to be underfunded</a> by provincial and federal governments. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">Until we address chronic underfunding, Canada will keep failing at emergency management</a>
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<p>Because Canadians tend only to pay close attention to these shortcomings when disasters occur, governments <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-disaster-response-agency-1.6868209">and the media</a> remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them.</p>
<h2>Disasters cost billions</h2>
<p>Natural and technological disasters represent a significant financial burden on citizens, businesses and governments. Disaster response actions and associated recovery assistance funds have cost approximately $5.75 billion over the past 10 years, according to <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/rcvr-dsstrs/dsstr-fnncl-ssstnc-rrngmnts/index-en.aspx">Public Safety Canada</a>.</p>
<p>However, proposals to increase response capabilities in isolation aren’t the most efficient way to reduce disaster risks. Canada, especially at the federal level, <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy/index-en.aspx">has developed strategies</a> and made commitments to adopt a more comprehensive approach, but it’s failing to deliver results. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mtgtn-strtgy/index-en.aspx#a00">Disaster Management Strategy</a> acknowledges the value of hazard mitigation and community adaptation, but there is very little to require their implementation. </p>
<p>Instead of improving mitigation, changes to the national emergency management system <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-urgently-needs-a-fema-like-emergency-management-agency-207400">currently being discussed</a> in the <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/12/15/news/canada-test-options-national-emergency-response-agency">national media</a> include the creation of a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10172535/canada-emergency-response-agency-sajjan/">federal disaster response agency</a>.</p>
<p>But that’s not likely going to be effective in managing disasters in an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canadas-political-system-makes-it-difficult-to-fight-floods-118511">Why Canada’s political system makes it difficult to fight floods</a>
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<p>One recognized problem is federal and provincial legislation is now out of date compared to emergency management best practices. These laws are overly dependent on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2014.889392">emergency powers</a> stemming from our experiences in the last century.</p>
<p>In the 1950s, the provinces created “<a href="https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1460&context=cmh">civil defence</a>” systems against enemy attacks, with the option to use such systems in the event of natural disasters. These early laws became their first emergency management legislation. Governmental use of these existing powers, including suspending civil rights, has since been the only approach available. </p>
<p>It makes more sense for governments, <a href="https://parl.canadiana.ca/view/oop.debates_HOC2104_01/499">as Prime Minister Louis St. Laurent stated in 1951</a> with regard to using the War Measures Act, “to avoid taking powers of the grave character which no democratic government wishes to have, as a government, unless those powers are really necessary for the safety of the state.”</p>
<h2>Changing the Emergencies Act</h2>
<p>A review of the existing <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-4.5/index.html">Emergencies Act</a> is clearly necessary. </p>
<p>The current wording establishes different powers available to the federal government under four types of emergencies. </p>
<p>Public welfare emergencies cover natural and technological disasters, while public order emergencies involve civil unrest, as was the case of the Emergencies Act’s use in February 2022 to end the <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-introduction.pdf">so-called Freedom Convoy’s occupation of Ottawa</a>. </p>
<p>The other two types are focused on national defence related to international emergencies and wars. This may contribute to the perception that disasters are a <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/canada/military-there-for-canadians-in-emergencies/wcm/82301acc-5d4d-4428-b43e-b617845f54ea">national defence responsibility</a>. </p>
<p>The public welfare section of the Emergencies Act is clearly inappropriate and redundant considering provincial jurisdiction over emergency management. Provincial laws and systems cover the same range of special powers, and the Emergencies Act prevents the government of Canada from interfering in the provinces’ responses.</p>
<p>The section should be replaced with a process for the federal government to formally recognize provincial and municipal states of emergency. This would acknowledge decision-making belongs at the local and provincial level while giving federal cabinet ministers the ability to direct departmental resources to support provincial responses. </p>
<p>In fact, a provision in the federal <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/index.html">Emergency Management Act</a> that describes how Ottawa should prepare for disasters <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/page-1.html#h-214379">already sets a requirement for ministers to do this</a>. It states: “Each minister shall include in an emergency management plan: (a) any programs, arrangements or other measures to assist provincial governments and, through the provincial governments, local authorities.” </p>
<h2>No clear role</h2>
<p>The current emergency management system, designed around the division of roles, responsibilities and powers between federal and provincial governments, does not have a clear role for a national response agency. </p>
<p>Nor can the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9882263/canada-military-help-emergencies/">Canadian Armed Forces</a> continue to be tasked as a routine solution. The resources required in times of disaster go beyond the traditional 911 emergency services to include utilities, private and not-for-profit agencies and a greater role for citizen involvement. But these resources are located in provinces and organized locally.</p>
<p>Emergency management therefore needs to be integrated into decision-making by all levels of government and communities to be effective. </p>
<p>There are still unrealized opportunities to improve inter-provincial co-operation, and there’s still an urgent need for better funding. The creation of a response-focused national agency will not address these underlying problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Lindsay is affiliated with the Canadian RIsk and Hazards Network and the International Association of Emergency Managers </span></em></p>Governments and the media remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them. Here’s what must change — and will and won’t work — as Canada faces increased disaster risks.Jack Lindsay, Associate Professor and Chair of Applied Disaster and Emergency Studies Department, Brandon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200312024-02-07T13:12:18Z2024-02-07T13:12:18ZPower outages leave poor communities in the dark longer: Evidence from 15M outages raises questions about recovery times<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573708/original/file-20240206-24-a4nh4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5168%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Low-income communities often have a longer wait for electricity to come back after outages.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/457a5faae7c84a23947a3e781c5ce4a3">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity is essential to just about everyone – rich and poor, old and young. Yet, when severe storms strike, socioeconomically disadvantaged communities often wait longest to recover.</p>
<p>That isn’t just a perception.</p>
<p>We analyzed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad295">data from over 15 million consumers</a> in 588 U.S. counties who lost power when hurricanes made landfall between January 2017 and October 2020. The results show that poorer communities did indeed wait longer for the lights to go back on.</p>
<p>A 1-decile drop in socioeconomic status in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s <a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/index.html">social vulnerability index</a> was associated with a 6.1% longer outage on average. This corresponds to waiting an extra 170 minutes on average for power to be restored, and sometimes much longer. </p>
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<img alt="Two maps of the southeastern U.S. show a correlation between outages and social vulnerability." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The top map shows the total duration of power outages over eight storms by county. The lower map is a comparison with socioeconomic status taken into account, showing that counties with lower average socioeconomic status have longer outages than expected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/2/10/pgad295/7286530">Ganz et al, 2023, PNAS Nexus</a></span>
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<h2>Implications for policy and utilities</h2>
<p>One likely reason for this disparity is written into utilities’ <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/Restoration_Best_Practices_Guidebook_2018.pdf">standard storm recovery policies</a>. Often, these polices prioritize critical infrastructure first when restoring power after an outage, then large commercial and industrial customers. They next seek to recover as many households as they can as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>While this approach may seem procedurally fair, these recovery routines appear to have an unintended effect of often making vulnerable communities wait longer for electricity to be restored. One <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218883">reason may be</a> that these communities are farther from critical infrastructure, or they may be predominantly in older neighborhoods where power infrastructure requires more significant repairs.</p>
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<img alt="A store in Austin, Texas, is closed during a widespread power outage amid a winter cold snap in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Commercial areas are often higher on the priority list for faster power recovery in an outage. This store was still closed for several days during Texas’ widespread outages in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-states-that-a-fiesta-mart-is-closed-because-of-a-power-news-photo/1231222415?adppopup=true">Montinique Monroe/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The upshot is that households that are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/hurricanes-hit-the-poor-the-hardest/">already at greater risk</a> from severe weather – whether due to being in flood-prone areas or in vulnerable buildings – and those who are least likely to have insurance or other resources to help them recover are also likely to face the longest storm-caused power outages. Long outages can mean refrigerated food goes bad, no running water and delays in repairing damage, including delays in running fans to dry out water damage and avoid mold.</p>
<p>Our study spanned 108 service regions, including investor-owned utilities, cooperatives and public utilities. The differential impact on poorer communities did not line up with any particular storm, region or individual utility. We also found no correlation with race, ethnicity or housing type. Only average socioeconomic level stood out.</p>
<h2>How to make power recovery less biased</h2>
<p>There are ways to improve power recovery times for everyone, beyond the necessary work of improving the stability of power distribution.</p>
<p>Policymakers and utilities can start by reexamining power restoration practices and power infrastructure maintenance, such as replacing aging utility poles and trimming trees, with disadvantaged communities in mind.</p>
<p>Power providers already have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.07.006">granular data on power usage</a> and <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=9913670">grid performance in their service regions</a>. They can begin experimenting with alternative recovery routines that consider the vulnerability of their customers in ways that do not substantially affect average recovery duration.</p>
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<img alt="Two men look at cell phones in the dark on a porch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People in some Fort Myers, Fla., neighborhoods still lacked water and electricity more than a week after Hurricane Ian in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-states-that-a-fiesta-mart-is-closed-because-of-a-power-news-photo/1231222415?adppopup=true">Montinique Monroe/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>For socioeconomically <a href="https://atlas.eia.gov/pages/04021248819144108b36cbf27327d11c">vulnerable regions</a> that are likely to experience long outages because of their locations and possibly the aging energy infrastructure, utilities and policymakers can proactively ensure that households are well prepared to evacuate or have access to backup sources of power.</p>
<p>For example, the U.S. Department of Energy announced in October 2023 that it would invest in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/gdo/articles/keeping-lights-our-neighborhoods-during-power-outages">developing dozens of resilience hubs and microgrids</a> to help supply local power to key buildings within communities when the wider grid goes down. Louisiana plans several of these hubs, using solar and large-scale batteries, in or near disadvantaged communities.</p>
<p>Policymakers and utilities can also invest in broader energy infrastructure and renewable energy in these vulnerable communities. The U.S. Department of Energy’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov/justice/justice40-initiative">Justice40 program</a> directs that 40% of the benefit from certain federal energy, transportation and housing investments benefit disadvantaged communities. That may help residents who need public help the most.</p>
<p>Severe weather events are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">becoming more common</a> as <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-billion-dollar-disasters-list-shattered-the-us-record-with-28-big-weather-and-climate-disasters-amid-earths-hottest-year-on-record-220634">global temperatures rise</a>. That increases the need for better planning and approaches that don’t leave low-income residents in the dark.</p>
<p><em>Chenghao Duan, a Ph.D. student at Georgia Tech, also contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220031/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers tracked power outages after 8 major storms to see how wealth corresponded to recovery time.Chuanyi Ji, Associate Professor of Engineering, Georgia Institute of TechnologyScott C. Ganz, Associate Teaching Professor of Business and Economics, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216682024-01-24T13:14:20Z2024-01-24T13:14:20ZClimate disaster movies resonate in ways that news never will<p>Like many eco-conscious film buffs, I’ve seen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/17/why-dont-look-up-should-win-the-best-picture-oscar">Don’t Look Up</a> many times, and shown it to my friends and family whenever anyone suggests a movie night. Now I’m looking forward to discussing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/jan/20/the-end-we-start-from-review-jodie-comer-mahalia-belo-megan-hunter#:%7E:text=When%20her%20waters%20break,The%20End%20We%20Start%20From.">The End We Start From</a>, the new 2024 release starring Killing Eve star <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jodie-Comer">Jodie Comer</a>. The Liverpudlian actress plays a new mother trying to find refuge with her baby as London is submerged by flood waters. </p>
<p>As someone concerned about climate catastrophe, I rarely pass up the opportunity to educate my loved ones in an entertaining or thought-provoking way. It’s a refreshing break from the usual doom-mongering that conversations can often descend into. </p>
<p>The power of cinema in communicating the climate crisis is undeniable. This is becoming increasingly apparent in <a href="https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/research-and-teaching/departments-and-schools/geography/oral-history-of-the-environmental-movement-project/">my own research</a> on the history of the environmental movement in the UK. Certainly during the last two decades, I’ve noticed a more concerted effort within cinema and television to directly address the issues of climate catastrophe. </p>
<p>Given the complexities behind the science of climate change, good communication plays a critical role in affecting public attitudes and behaviours in relation to environmental justice. Yet it’s only relatively recently that the role of cinema, and narrative visual fiction more broadly, has been taken seriously as having a role in that communication. </p>
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<h2>Creating emotional connection</h2>
<p>There are many benefits to using fictional narrative as a tool to connect an audience with environmental issues.</p>
<p>First, this appeals to our emotions in a way that a scientific presentation, academic paper or broadcast interview rarely can. Ultimately, films have a unique way of engaging our emotions, which is a vital step in <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003119234-26/cinema-ecology-environment-pat-brereton">driving changes in people’s behaviour</a>. </p>
<p>Films can leverage this by presenting climate messages within fantastical narratives that seasoned movie watchers will be familiar with. In the case of Don’t Look Up, it’s meteor strikes. For <a href="https://www.bafta.org/supporting-talent/breakthrough-brits/mahalia-belo-director">Mahalia Belo’s</a> The End We Start From, it’s extreme flooding. </p>
<p>But even without such strong visual representation, films that centre around personal journeys towards realisation can be equally as powerful. In Paul Schrader’s brilliant <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/jul/12/first-reformed-review-ethan-hawke-paul-schrader-amanda-seyfried">First Reformed</a>, climate activism is the predominant focus. </p>
<p>Second, films and television dramas can bring the immensity of climate catastrophe down to earth by incorporating everyday events. The interpersonal dynamics in the BBC television series <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/apr/07/years-and-years-is-riveting-dystopian-tv-and-the-worst-show-to-watch-right-now">Years and Years</a>, a six-part drama that follows three generations of a Manchester family between 2019 and 2034, helps viewers relate to the characters’ experiences. This is a <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Climate_Change_and_Post_Political_Commun/kpxADwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1">proven tactic</a> that embeds climate issues into public debate, as it conjures a personal connection and makes the climate message more accessible and effective.</p>
<p>The End We Start From follows the everyday experience of having a newborn child, but set in the midst of an extreme flood in London. This creates a visceral emotional connection between the themes of the film and the viewers’ own experiences. The emotional journeys of the characters mirror the audience’s <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1075547008329201?casa_token=UJTpxEAvArQAAAAA:I7Rg6As8Nfh-WaCXMsHMnP4VYkDoCtnQWvFq5wYABGxZojhL74XBArEUcERdanNsIgSBc5EA9dI">fears and hopes</a>. This creates a strong empathetic link that can help people change the way they behave far more than facts and data can.</p>
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<p>Third, the stark imagery of environmental devastation, aided by increasingly spectacular special effects and CGI leaves a lasting visual imprint. This enhances public awareness and concern. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/News_Story/Critic_Review/Guardian_review/0,,1225934,00.html#:%7E:text=There%20are%20some%20great%20special,get%20to%20those%20spectacular%20scenes.%E2%80%8B">The Day After Tomorrow</a>, released in 2004, can be considered the first climate blockbuster.</p>
<p>While it had a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alexa-Weik-Von-Mossner-2/publication/270161666_Facing_The_Day_After_Tomorrow_Filmed_Disaster_Emotional_Engagement_and_Climate_Risk_Perception/links/54a1c2db0cf256bf8baf78d5/Facing-The-Day-After-Tomorrow-Filmed-Disaster-Emotional-Engagement-and-Climate-Risk-Perception.pdf">relatively small</a> immediate impact on changing people’s opinions on climate change, it laid the ground for more cinematic explorations of climate change-related visuals, and the real world impact of extreme weather events, rising sea levels and rapid temperature changes.</p>
<h2>Welcome to the age of ‘cli-fi’</h2>
<p>More than just the effects though, it has <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Research_Handbook_on_Communicating_Clima/AC0NEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=Cultural+storytelling+through+cinema+climate&pg=PA330&printsec=frontcover">been argued</a> that the skill of storytelling can impress climate science on viewers’ minds far more effectively.</p>
<p>Often labelled “cli-fi”, the melding of science fiction stories with dystopian climate futures uses a post-climate breakdown as the scene for the film’s imagined narrative. In so doing, films such as Bong Joon Ho’s masterpiece <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/may/25/snowpiercer-review-steampunk-law-order-is-a-trashy-treat">Snowpiercer</a> or George Miller’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/may/17/mad-max-fury-road-review-mark-kermode">Mad Max: Fury Road</a> convey the gravity of the very real issues of the social, cultural and political effects of climate catastrophe.</p>
<p>Of course, the growing genre of climate change cinema is not always <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016718517301549?casa_token=GBqWs_47IysAAAAA:IZp0baGmmUrvjHsrMdjtg2fM7lcWhFBZDhBWUiaqWkdMGoSbolSBHEyindhH3Fr91fMehhgc">scientifically accurate</a>. But if cinema is to be used more forcefully as a tool to raise the public awareness of climate catastrophe, then accuracy is not entirely necessary: it is the emotional connection and compelling storytelling that are most crucial. </p>
<p>Films like The End We Start From and Don’t Look Up are not just entertainment, they are essential tools in educating and mobilising public opinion. As we face the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-bad-is-climate-change-already-and-what-do-we-need-to-do-next-to-tackle-it-218309">escalating challenges</a> of climate catastrophe, embracing diverse and emotionally engaging storytelling in mainstream media becomes imperative. It’s through these narratives that we can foster a more informed, concerned and proactive global community.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221668/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oli Mould does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This powerful new eco drama suggests “cli-fi” could play a crucial role in climate communication.Oli Mould, Professor in Human Geography, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209402024-01-17T23:10:26Z2024-01-17T23:10:26ZWe can’t rely on the ‘dogs breakfast’ of disaster warnings to do the hard work of building community resilience<p>In the wake of cyclone Jasper, the new Australian Warning System has been roundly criticised. The system has been characterised as a “dog’s breakfast” and a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">cock-up of massive proportions</a>”.</p>
<p>For both emergency warnings, as well as for general awareness-raising around disaster preparedness, one-way communications are the default in risk management. </p>
<p>This reliance on communications is wishful thinking.</p>
<p>Whether as text messages and alerts when disasters strike, or as pamphlets and expert advice to encourage preparedness, we need to rethink how we use communications if we want more resilient communities.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-disaster-strikes-emergency-responders-cant-respond-to-every-call-communities-must-be-helped-to-help-themselves-216644">When disaster strikes, emergency responders can't respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves</a>
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<h2>Warnings reflect unreasonable expectations</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">noted by Australians</a> in the aftermath of cyclone Jasper and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-maribyrnong-river-flood-warnings-that-receded-then-went-unheeded-20230928-p5e8ft.html">Maribyrnong floods</a>, the advice in warnings is often perceived to be incorrect, late, vague, and confusing.</p>
<p>Rather than an error that can be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/maribyrnong-flood-forecasting-and-early-warnings-must-be-improved-report-finds-20231006-p5ea7x.html">fixed with better content</a>, this reflects unreasonable expectations. </p>
<p>We expect a warning to be sufficiently abstract to be useful across large regions and for many people with varying levels of exposure and capacity. </p>
<p>At the same time, we also expect information specific enough for stressed and possibly traumatised individuals to implement in life-threatening situations.</p>
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<p>In response to recommendations from numerous inquiries, authorities have applied standards and terminology to ensure consistency. While this sounds reasonable, it means that future warnings will continue to be ineffective.</p>
<p>It is worth repeating that risks are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/files/670_72351.pdf">dynamic</a> and personal. Communications useful to a young, well-connected longtime resident will be received very differently by a middle aged, isolated, “tree change” individual who has grown up in urban areas.</p>
<p>That a generic warning is unable to satisfy the needs of diverse individuals, experiencing varying levels of hazard, spread over large areas, and over time is unsurprising. What is surprising is the belief that “better warnings” will.</p>
<h2>Repeating the same mistakes</h2>
<p>Warnings and awareness raising for disaster preparedness reflect how the risk sector relies on communications to “engage” the public. This is based on a <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.570">discredited</a> approach that assumes communications can prompt targeted, lasting behaviour change.</p>
<p>The development of the <a href="https://www.australianwarningsystem.com.au">Australian Warning System</a> reflects this reliance. It is a position reaffirmed in the reports, commissions, and inquiries that have followed recent Australian disasters. </p>
<p>For example, in the 2020 <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2020-12/Royal%20Commission%20into%20National%20Natural%20Disaster%20Arrangements%20-%20Report%20%20%5Baccessible%5D.pdf">Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements</a>, a whole chapter is dedicated to “Emergency Information and Warnings”. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disastrous-floods-in-wa-why-were-we-not-prepared-197407">Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?</a>
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<p>Similarly, one focus of the ongoing <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/floodinquiry">inquiry</a> into the 2022 Victorian floods is on the “adequacy and effectiveness of early warning systems”. As it was for the 2011 <a href="http://floodsreview.archive.vic.gov.au/about-the-review/final-report.html">Comrie Review</a>, communications go unquestioned as the primary way to engage the public.</p>
<p>Frustration with repeated failure is becoming evident as successive commissions and inquiries hear the echoes of past efforts. The NSW 2022 <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">flood inquiry</a> stands out for its blunt recognition that Australians appear to be locked in a cycle. Disasters expose systemic failings that result in recommendations that go unimplemented. The report read:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Inquiry heard a deep sense of frustration from many flood-affected residents and community members over a lack of implementation and change over time, despite multiple previous reviews. Many were sceptical that this Inquiry would succeed in effecting significant change. Similar findings on implementation (or lack thereof) were made in the 2020 NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry, which recommended that a central accountability mechanism be established to track implementation of the report.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But what is missed in all of these reviews is a critical examination of our tendency to default to communications.</p>
<h2>The cost of being reactive</h2>
<p>Part of the problem with our reliance on communications is that, in the case of warnings, by the time they arrive we are reacting to an unfolding crisis, rather than preparing for one. This raises the costs significantly.</p>
<p>The resulting costs of disasters, currently $38 billion annually, are <a href="https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/economics/perspectives/building-australias-natural-disaster-resilience.html">expected to rise</a> to between $73 and $94 billion annually by 2060, according to a Deloitte report. The report argued:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Australian economy is facing $1.2 trillion in cumulative costs of natural disasters over the next 40 years even under a low emissions scenario. This shows there is the potential for large economic gains from investments to improve Australia’s resilience to natural disasters. Targeted investments in both physical (such as infrastructure) and community (such as preparedness programs) resilience measures are predicted to significantly reduce the increasing costs of natural disasters</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Disaster costs are an unavoidably shared burden. Whether in the form of disaster response, relief, and recovery or in the form of investment in preparedness, <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/64-million-package-ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-disaster-recovery">public funds</a> will inevitably be required in ever-larger amounts.</p>
<p>This situation results in <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-s-floods-were-fourth-most-costly-global-disaster-in-2022-20230110-p5cbhx">astronomical expenditures</a> during events and, later, “pinching pennies” for preparedness. This bias towards response and recovery over preparedness is known, made all the more frustrating because preparedness is <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding/report">shown to be</a> cost-effective.</p>
<h2>So what should happen instead?</h2>
<p>Communications do not create community resilience, they activate it. </p>
<p>Our recent research shows that, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12861">rather than communications</a>, we need to engage meaningfully with communities. This means respecting their positions and values and appreciating that resilience is a long, slow, collaborative process that requires humility, active listening, experience, reflection, and support. </p>
<p>Our research shows that by conducting one-on-one engagement with members of the community, we can better understand their circumstances and support their agency. This has helped people as they learn about risk. They’ve shared lessons with their neighbours and helped family members to better protect themselves. This means we’re seeing knowledge and risk mitigation <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/epdf/10.1142/S2345737623410014">circulate through communities</a>. </p>
<p>This way of partnering takes time and takes work, but it opens pathways for the learning and behaviour changes that help our communities expand their resilience. While it is expensive, the predicted costs of disasters more than justify such efforts.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/every-australian-will-be-touched-by-climate-change-so-lets-start-a-national-conversation-about-how-well-cope-196934">Every Australian will be touched by climate change. So let's start a national conversation about how we'll cope</a>
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<p>As parts of Queensland and Victoria continue to be battered by disasters, it is time to admit that communications alone do not build resilience. They play an important role, but they are only one element of what needs to be a long-term partnership.</p>
<p>Rather than scooping the “dog’s breakfast” back into the bowl, we need to consider the underlying causes of the mess. With resilience, Australians will be ready and able to share in the growing burden of risk management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Robert Cook receives funding from Melbourne Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Kamstra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether it’s pamphlets aimed at prevention or text alerts, mass communication is often relied on during disasters. This flawed approach can be improved by engaging meaningfully with communities.Brian Robert Cook, Associate Professor of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212832024-01-17T13:37:30Z2024-01-17T13:37:30ZIceland battles a lava flow: Countries have built barriers and tried explosives in the past, but it’s hard to stop molten rock<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569684/original/file-20240116-25-6bp82a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=158%2C22%2C1637%2C996&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lava flows from a fissure near Grindavik, Iceland, on Jan. 14, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/Almannavarnir/">Iceland Department of Civil Protection</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fountains of lava erupted from the Sundhnúkur volcanic system in southwest Iceland on Jan. 14, 2024. As the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bqudj0x0POA">world watched on webcams and social media</a>, lava flows cut off roads and bubbled from a new fissure that invaded the outskirts of the coastal town of Grindavík, burning down at least three houses in their path.</p>
<p>Nearby, construction vehicles that had been working for weeks to <a href="https://www.constructionbriefing.com/news/the-construction-teams-working-to-hold-back-a-volcano/8033447.article">build large earthen dams and berms</a> in an attempt to divert the lava’s flow had to pull back.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The glow from lava lights up the sky with a town nearby in front of it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569683/original/file-20240116-19-avqjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The lava flow on Jan. 14, 2024, with Grindavík in the foreground.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/Almannavarnir/">Iceland Department of Civil Protection</a></span>
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<p>Humans have tried many ways to stop lava in the past, from attempting to freeze it in place by cooling it with sea water, to using explosives to disrupt its supply, to building earthen barriers. </p>
<p>It’s too soon to say if Iceland’s earthworks will succeed in saving Grindavík, a town of <a href="https://guidetoiceland.is/travel-iceland/drive/grindavik">about 3,500 residents</a>, and a nearby <a href="https://www.visir.is/g/20232488946d/um-thrjatiu-vorubilar-notadir-til-ad-saekja-efni-ur-stapafelli">geothermal power plant</a>. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9NUvHX4AAAAJ&hl=en">a volcanologist</a>, I follow these methods. The most successful attempts to stop or reroute lava have involved diversions like Iceland’s. </p>
<h2>Why lava is so hard to stop</h2>
<p>Lava is a <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/lava-flows-destroy-everything-their-path">sluggish, viscous fluid</a> that behaves somewhat like tar. It is subject to gravity, so like other fluids, it will flow downslope along a path of steepest descent.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C9etIuS5hBg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Images of Grindavik and the barrier being built to try to protect the town and geothermal power plant. Insider News.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the temperature of its molten rock often <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-how-do-lava-flows-cool-and-how-long-does-it-take">well above 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit</a> (1,000 Celsius), not much can stand in its way.</p>
<h2>Freezing lava in its tracks</h2>
<p>In 1973, Icelanders attempted the <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1997/of97-724/methods.html">most famous “lava freezing” experiment</a>. They used water hoses from a flotilla of small boats and fishing vessels to protect the small island community of Heimaey from the Eldfell volcano’s lava.</p>
<p>The lava flows were threatening to close off the harbor, which is critical to the region’s fishing industry and a lifeline to the Icelandic mainland. The eruption ended before the success of the strategy could be properly evaluated, but the harbor survived.</p>
<h2>Fighting lava with explosives</h2>
<p>Hawaiians used <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02600367">explosives dropped from planes in 1935 and 1942</a> to try to disrupt lava flows from Mauna Loa volcano that were threatening the town of Hilo on the Big Island. </p>
<p>The idea was to disrupt the channels or lava tubes in the volcano that were supplying lava to the surface. Neither attempt was successful. The explosions created new channels, but the newly formed lava flows soon <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1801/downloads/pp1801_Chap10_Tilling.pdf">rejoined the original lava channel</a>.</p>
<h2>Lava barriers and diversions</h2>
<p>Most recent efforts have focused instead on a third strategy: building dams or ditches in an attempt to divert the lava’s flow toward a different path of steepest descent, into a different “lavashed,” a <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/watershed.html">concept similar to a watershed</a> but where lava would naturally flow.</p>
<p>Results have been mixed, but diversion can be successful if the lava flow can be clearly diverted into a distinct area where lava would naturally flow – without threatening a different community in the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An earthen berm with black lava along the one side of it. The lava broke through along a highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569688/original/file-20240116-17-hi8it9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lava breached one section of the earthen barrier near Grindavík after the Jan. 14, 2024, eruption, but it largely followed the effort to divert it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/drone-is-capturing-the-town-of-grindavik-during-the-news-photo/1928389535?adppopup=true">NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many attempts to divert lava have failed, however. Barriers built in Italy to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(93)90048-V">stop Mt. Etna’s lava flows</a> in 1992 slowed the flow, but the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-what-does-it-take-successfully-divert-a-lava-flow">lava eventually overtopped each one</a>.</p>
<h2>Iceland’s diversion efforts</h2>
<p>Icelandic authorities evacuated Grindavík’s residents in November 2023 <a href="https://theconversation.com/volcanic-iceland-is-rumbling-again-as-magma-rises-a-geologist-explains-eruptions-in-the-land-of-fire-and-ice-217671">after swarms of earthquakes</a> indicated a reactivation of the nearby volcanic system.</p>
<p>Shortly afterward, construction began on protective barriers for the town and some nearby critical infrastructure – notably, the Svartsengi geothermal power station. Construction had to be put on hold in mid-December, when a <a href="https://theconversation.com/volcanic-eruption-lights-up-iceland-after-weeks-of-earthquake-warnings-a-geologist-explains-whats-happening-220193">first volcanic eruption</a> occurred about 2.5 miles northeast of Grindavík, but work resumed in January. Work was still underway when magma reached the surface again on Jan. 14.</p>
<p>Diverting lava in this region is difficult, in part because the land around Grindavík is relatively flat. That makes it harder to identify a clear alternative path of steepest descent for redirecting the lava. </p>
<p><a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">Icelandic officials reported</a> on Jan. 15 that most of the lava from the main fissure had flowed along the outside the barrier, however a <a href="https://guidetoiceland.imgix.net/1322526/x/0/grindavik-2.jpg">new fissure</a> had also opened inside the perimeter, sending lava into a neighborhood. Unfortunately, that implies that Grindavík remains at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Loÿc Vanderkluysen receives funding from the National Science Foundation</span></em></p>Iceland, Hawaii and Italy have all tried to control lava to save cities in the past. A volcanologist explains the methods.Loÿc Vanderkluysen, Associate Professor of Earth Science, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206342024-01-09T17:03:11Z2024-01-09T17:03:11Z2023’s billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth’s hottest year on record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568310/original/file-20240108-17-d7axzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=592%2C875%2C1145%2C839&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood water filled streets in downtown Montpelier, Vt., on July 11, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-walks-through-the-flooded-waters-of-main-street-on-news-photo/1524301769?adppopup=true">Kylie Cooper/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>National weather analysts released their 2023 <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/1980-2023">billion-dollar disasters</a> list on Jan. 9, just as 2024 was getting <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?">off to a ferocious start</a>. A <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/midwest-to-see-three-rounds-of-snow">blizzard was sweeping across</a> across the Plains and Midwest, and the South and East faced flood risks from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/eastern-us-snow-storm-01-09-24/index.html">extreme downpours</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. set an unwelcome record for weather and climate disasters in 2023, with <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">28 disasters</a> that exceeded more than US$1 billion in damage each. </p>
<p>While it wasn’t the most expensive year overall – the costliest years included multiple hurricane strikes – it had the highest number of billion-dollar storms, floods, droughts and fires of any year since counting began in 1980, with <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">six more than any other year</a>, accounting for inflation. </p>
<p><iframe id="FOf4d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FOf4d/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where disasters that did more than $1 billion in damage hit the United States." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2023’s billion-dollar disasters. Click the image to expand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The year’s most expensive disaster started with an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> that sat over Texas for weeks over the summer and then spread into the South and Midwest, helping fuel a destructive drought. The extreme heat and lack of rain dried up fields, forced ranchers to sell off livestock and restricted commerce on the Mississippi River, causing about <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events">US$14.5 billion in damage</a>, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/faq">conservative estimates</a>.</p>
<p>Extreme dryness in Hawaii contributed to another multi-billion-dollar disaster as it fueled <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">devastating wildfires</a> that destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii, in August. </p>
<p>Other billion-dollar disasters included <a href="https://www.weather.gov/tae/HurricaneIdalia2023">Hurricane Idalia</a>, which hit Florida in August; floods in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">Northeast</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">California</a>; and nearly two dozen other severe storms across the country. States in a swath from Texas to Ohio were hit by multiple billion-dollar storms.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with a bicycle walks through a scene of destruction after the fire in Lahaina." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C1920%2C1258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeek-Global-PhotoGallery/15a6864806e24d0cbb8b1037cfcf9931/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role in some of these disasters, but at the root of the world’s increasingly frequent extreme heat and weather is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a>. The year 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">hottest on record globally</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202312">fifth warmest in the U.S.</a></p>
<p>I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s a quick look at what global warming has to do with wildfires, storms and other weather and climate disasters.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as large parts of the country saw in 2023.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems. When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart of daily global average ocean temperatures since 1981 shows 2023 heat far above any other year starting in mid-March and staying there through the year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 was at its highest in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a>, <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of tropical storms.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p>
<p><em>This article, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">originally published Dec. 19, 2023</a>, was updated Jan. 9, 2024, with NOAA’s disasters list.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An atmospheric scientist explains how rising temperatures are helping to fuel extreme storms, floods, droughts and devastating wildfires.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166442023-12-21T04:39:12Z2023-12-21T04:39:12ZWhen disaster strikes, emergency responders can’t respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves<p>As record-breaking floods in North Queensland ease and water levels recede, the focus now turns to the mop-up and recovery. Residents have been <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgkfqttxNqk">supporting</a> each other through the flood crisis, such as processing donated goods, conducting welfare checks on neighbours and helping each other clean up homes.</p>
<p>Such community resilience in disasters is vital. <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">Successive</a> <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/natural-disasters">inquiries</a> have shown we can’t rely solely on emergency services in large disasters. Crews can’t get to every community straight away, or provide support to every household that needs assistance.</p>
<p>Our research shows how communities can be supported to respond in a crisis – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.</p>
<p>As climate change worsens, extreme weather events are the new norm. Local community building and preparedness is now more important than ever.</p>
<h2>Building disaster resilience</h2>
<p>Volunteer numbers are <a href="https://www.volunteeringaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/VRP_The-Decline-of-Formal-Volunteering-in-Australia-2001%E2%80%932020-Insights-from-the-HILDA-Survey.pdf">declining nationally</a>. However, when disaster strikes, people show a willingness to step forward and help their communities.</p>
<p>We have researched <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/08/02/communities-self-organising-for-climate-disasters.html">community-led responses</a> to disasters in three locations in New South Wales – the Northern Rivers, Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions. We examined how community networks organised themselves during the response and recovery phases of the Black Summer bushfires (2019-20) and major floods (2020-22). </p>
<p>We found people leapt into action and helped one another: relaying early warning messages, distributing food when roads were cut and then cleaning up afterwards. They also provided emotional support when the going got tough. This included listening to and supporting flood-affected people who wanted to tell their story and start processing what had happened. Community members also supported elderly people when their at-home support services were cut off for extended periods. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/05/01/building-resilience-to-the-mental-health-impacts-of-climate-chan.html">separate research</a> in rural communities affected by drought, fire and flood, we found community-led collective action and planning can foster feelings of belonging and social connection. It can also help communities prepare for the broader consequences of climate change. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<h2>Community resilience in action</h2>
<p>Many community-led resilience initiatives have emerged in the Northern Rivers region in the wake of successive disasters. They include <a href="https://www.floodhelpnr.com.au/">Resilient Lismore</a>, <a href="https://resilientuki.org/">Resilient Uki</a>, <a href="https://www.wardellcore.community/">Wardell CORE</a>, <a href="https://togetherpottsville.org/">Together Pottsville</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/431100262102216">South Golden Beach Community Resilience Team</a>, and <a href="https://www.madr.org.au/#:%7E:text=Main%20Arm%20Disaster%20Recovery%20Inc.%20is%20a%20community%2Drun%20organisation,to%20keep%20the%20community%20safe.">Main Arm Disaster Recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Examples of the activities flowing from these initiatives include:</p>
<ul>
<li>homegrown produce swaps</li>
<li>community gatherings (such as festivals, barbeques and bushfire awareness talks)</li>
<li>creating or joining formal local community groups</li>
<li>creating community resilience plans</li>
<li>bush regeneration projects</li>
<li>improving emergency communications </li>
<li>creating animal welfare plans for disasters. </li>
</ul>
<p>One <a href="https://www.ccrnetwork.org/">community program in Northern NSW</a> was run by community organisation <a href="https://www.planc.org.au">Plan C</a>. The lead author of this article, Rebecca McNaught, is a board member and former consultant to the organisation and co-author Jean Renouf is the founder and chief executive. The program trained and supported more than 270 Northern Rivers residents across six local government areas. Most (80%) of these people were affected by floods in 2022 through loss of property or incomes, and 30% were directly threatened by bushfires in 2019-20.</p>
<p>The program covered the technical aspects of preparing for disasters, such as learning about the roles of fire, police and state emergency services. It also trained participants in disaster risks associated with bushfire, flood, tsunami and landslips.</p>
<p>Disasters can <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/13/6285">take a toll on mental health</a>. Training people in how to look after themselves and each other in challenging times is important. The program teaches participants about the benefit of sharing stories about individual experiences, and guides participants in how to provide emotional support to someone who has experienced trauma. The program also covers concepts such as active listening, compassionate communication skills and self-care for both the helper and the person receiving support.</p>
<p>Participants are also mentored and connected to a network of community carers and responders who support each other and their communities to both recover from recent floods and fires and build resilience to future disasters.</p>
<p>The connection of community leaders across the Northern Rivers is essential. Through Whatsapp groups, leaders can express solidarity, share skills and resources, and support each other to work through the governance issues involving community organisations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-can-floods-like-those-in-the-northern-rivers-come-in-clusters-180250">Why can floods like those in the Northern Rivers come in clusters?</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>The benefits are clear</h2>
<p>Communities are important actors in preparing for and recovering from disaster, and should be supported to do this job well. And more robust research into community resilience programs is needed, to better understand what is working, who benefits and why.</p>
<p>Support for this work must come now, before the next disaster, so communities can pull together to withstand the challenges ahead. </p>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge Emma Pittaway and Dr Johanna Nalau for their contributions to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca McNaught is a Research Fellow at the University Centre for Rural Health (University of Sydney) in Lismore. She has received scholarship funding from the Australian Government's Research Training Program Stipend. She is affiliated with the South Golden Beach, New Brighton and Ocean Shores Community Resilience Team. She has also conducted paid and voluntary work for the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Howard has received funding from Resilience NSW and the new NSW Reconstruction Authority, Infrastructure NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean S. Renouf is a lecturer at Southern Cross University and the CEO of the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C, which builds community resilience in the Northern Rivers of NSW. Plan C receives funding from Commonwealth and NSW government grants.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Longman has received funding from the NSW Dept of Planning, Industry and Environment and the NSW Reconstruction Authority. </span></em></p>The North Queensland floods remind us of the need to build community resilience to disasters – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.Rebecca McNaught, Research Fellow, University of SydneyAmanda Howard, Associate Professor, University of SydneyJean S. Renouf, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Southern Cross UniversityJo Longman, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201932023-12-19T21:59:56Z2023-12-19T21:59:56ZVolcanic eruption lights up Iceland after weeks of earthquake warnings − a geologist explains what’s happening<p>Lava erupted through a fissure in Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula on Dec. 18, 2023, shooting <a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">almost 100 feet (30 meters)</a> in the air in its early hours.</p>
<p>Icelanders had been anticipating an eruption in the area for weeks, ever since a <a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">swarm of thousands of small earthquakes</a> began on Oct. 23 northeast of the fishing town of Grindavík, signaling volcanic activity below. </p>
<p>In the days that followed those first rumblings, a series of small rifts opened under the town, breaking streets, rupturing utility lines and tilting houses. GPS stations detected the <a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/earthquake-activity-in-fagradalsfjall-area">ground sinking and rising</a> over a large area.</p>
<p>Geologists from the <a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">Icelandic Met Office</a> interpreted the events as evidence that a basalt dike – pressurized magma that forces its way into a fracture – had intruded under Grindavík. The activity there had tapered off by early December, but 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) north of town, the ground under the <a href="https://www.verkis.com/projects/energy-production/geothermal-energy/nr/936">Svartsengi</a> geothermal power plant was moving.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows the location of the fissure." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566683/original/file-20231219-19-6waspp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The location of the fissure where magma erupted starting Dec. 18, 2023, a few miles from the town of Grindavík and just east of Svartsengi power plant and ajacent Blue Lagoon thermal spa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">Icelandic Met Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ground had dropped 10 inches (25 centimeters) as the basalt dike filled, but then it began to rise in a broad dome, indicating that magma was reinflating and repressurizing the magma chamber. The result was the nearby eruption on Dec. 18.</p>
<p>If the fissure continues to propagate to the south, or if a large volume of lava erupts, the evacuated town of Grindavík, with a population of around 3,500, may be in danger. The lava could also spill to the northwest toward the power plant, although the utility built rock walls to try to divert lava flows.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial photo shows the lights of Grindavík and glow of the eruption very nearby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566707/original/file-20231219-25-zfbj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566707/original/file-20231219-25-zfbj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566707/original/file-20231219-25-zfbj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566707/original/file-20231219-25-zfbj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566707/original/file-20231219-25-zfbj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566707/original/file-20231219-25-zfbj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566707/original/file-20231219-25-zfbj7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The evacuated town of Grindavík and a nearby geothermal power plant are still at risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-evacuated-icelandic-town-of-grindavik-is-seen-as-smoke-news-photo/1860420658?adppopup=true">Viken Kantarci/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Iceland is known as “the land of fire and ice” for a reason. Its residents have learned over centuries to live with its overactive geology.</p>
<p>The reason for Iceland’s volcanism has two parts: One has to do with what geologists unimaginatively <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/volcanic-hotspot.html">call a hot spot</a>, and the other involves giant tectonic plates that are pulling apart beneath the island. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=r8FqGBEAAAAJ&hl=en">a geologist</a>, I study both.</p>
<h2>Life on the edge of two tectonic plates</h2>
<p>When <a href="https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/animation/plate_tectonic_theorya_brief_history">plate tectonic theory</a> was emerging in the 1960s, geologists realized that many volcanoes are located in zones where tectonic plates meet. Tectonic plates are gigantic chunks of Earth’s rigid outer layer that carry both continents and oceans and are constantly in motion. They <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/tectonic-plates-earth">cover the planet</a> like large pieces of a spherical jigsaw puzzle.</p>
<p>Many of these volcanoes are in subduction zones, like the Pacific’s <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/plate-tectonics-ring-fire/">Ring of Fire</a>, where thinner oceanic plates slowly sink into <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/mantle/">Earth’s mantle</a>. These are the postcard stratovolcanoes like Mount Fuji, in Japan, or Mount Rainier, outside of Seattle. Because of their high gas content, they tend to erupt catastrophically, shooting ash high into the atmosphere with the energy of nuclear bombs, as <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-st.-helens/science/1980-cataclysmic-eruption">Mount St. Helens did in 1980</a>.</p>
<p>A second, typically quieter kind of volcano forms <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/mid-ocean-ridge.html">where plates pull apart</a>.</p>
<p>The volcanic activity near Grindavík is directly related to this kind of plate tectonic motion. The mid-Atlantic ridge between the Eurasian and North American plates cuts right through that part of the island.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where the earthquakes are taking place in a southwest peninsula and where the tectonic plates meet." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iceland sits atop the meeting of two tectonic plates, the North American to the west and Eurasian to the east, indicated by the red line crossing the island. The maps show the earthquake swarms on Nov. 12-14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-infographic-titled-iceland-prepares-for-volcanic-news-photo/1782148842?adppopup=true">Yasin Demirci/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows details of midocean ridges looking like seams on a baseball as they wind through the major oceans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the 1950s, cartographer Marie Tharp used echo soundings gathered by ships to develop the first map showing the ocean floor in detail. It clearly revealed the mid-ocean ridges. This hand-painted version of her map includes annotations showing hot spot tracks related to movement of the plates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/">Heinrich C. Berann via Library of Congress; annotations by Jaime Toro</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, at <a href="https://guidetoiceland.is/connect-with-locals/jorunnsg/ingvellir-national-park">Thingvellir National Park</a> you can literally walk between the two tectonic plates. You can see the topographic scars of the rift in the long, linear valleys that extend to the northeast from Grindavík. They align with the swarms of earthquakes, the <a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/bigimg/4511?ListID=0">ground deformation</a>, and the fissure eruption of 2023.</p>
<p>Where plates pull away from each other, the underlying mantle rises toward the surface to fill the gap, carrying its heat with it and moving into an area of lower pressure. Those <a href="https://www.e-education.psu.edu/rocco/node/1988">two processes</a> cause melting at depth and volcanic activity at the surface.</p>
<p>This is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheeted_dyke_complex">same process that creates new oceanic crust</a> underwater at mid-ocean ridges. After the magma solidifies as basalt rock, it will look like vertical walls intruded into the surrounding area.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The uplift is in a large area that includes a nearby power plant and the Blue Lagoon thermal spa." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566733/original/file-20231219-19-4i4dgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map shows the uplift of the ground (bright red) north of Grindavík prior to the Dec. 18, 2023, eruption, as well as the extent of the new lava flow (black).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.vedur.is/">Icelandic Met Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sitting on a hot spot</h2>
<p>In Iceland, the large volcanoes in the interior also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.02.022">appear to be over a mantle plume</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-mauna-loas-lava-is-coming-from-and-why-hawaiis-volcanoes-are-different-from-most-195633">similar to Hawaii</a>.</p>
<p>This kind of volcano typically erupts basalt lava, which melts at very high temperature and tends to flow easily. Eruptions are generally not explosive because the runny lava allows gases to escape. </p>
<p>Exactly what causes hot material to rise at hot spots is still debated, but the most commonly accepted idea is that they are caused by plumes of super-heated rock that originate at the transition <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.349.6252.1032">between Earth’s metallic core and rocky mantle</a>. Hot spots are a mechanism for the Earth to give off some of its <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/earth-s-insides-are-cooling-faster-than-we-thought-and-it-will-mess-things-up">internal heat</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Hl1gfV-TdU0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How hot spots develop. Video by Volcano Museum.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Typically, fissure eruptions are not explosive. However, when lava that is 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit (about 1,000 degrees Celsius) hits water, the flash to steam can cause explosions that can scatter ash over a larger area. </p>
<h2>A silver lining of Iceland’s volcanoes</h2>
<p>Living in an active volcanic area has some advantages, particularly for energy.</p>
<p>Iceland derives 30% of its electricity from geothermal sources that use underground heat to drive turbines and produce power. It’s almost like a controlled version of a lava flow hitting the sea, and it helps make Iceland <a href="https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-the-deal-with-iceland#details">one of the cleanest economies on earth</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People sit in an eggshell-blue lake surrounded by black lava rocks. Steam rises in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iceland has a lot of natural hot springs, but its Blue Lagoon has an unusual origin linked to geothermal energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/people-swimming-on-hot-spring-near-mountain-during-daytime-jTeQavJjBDs">Photo by Jeff Sheldon on Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.verkis.com/projects/energy-production/geothermal-energy/nr/936">Svartsengi</a> hydrothermal plant uses the underground heat from the same magma chamber that is now erupting to provide hot water for several thousand homes, plus 75 megawatts of electricity.</p>
<p>That power plant is also part of the reason the <a href="https://www.bluelagoon.com/">Blue Lagoon</a> is so popular. When the power plant was built in 1976, the plan was to discharge its still hot wastewater into an adjacent low area, expecting that it would seep into the ground. However, the geothermal water was loaded with dissolved silica, which became solid minerals when the water cooled, creating an impermeable layer. A small lake began to form.</p>
<p>Because of its high silica content, the water in this lake is a spectacular blue color that inspired the creation of the geothermal spa. The Blue Lagoon is one of the top tourist attractions in the country.</p>
<p>Now the Blue Lagoon is at risk: Sometimes the volcano gives, sometimes it takes away.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/pourquoi-leruption-volcanique-en-islande-na-rien-dune-surprise-les-explications-dun-geologue-220292">Lire en français</a></em></p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/volcanic-iceland-is-rumbling-again-as-magma-rises-a-geologist-explains-eruptions-in-the-land-of-fire-and-ice-217671">article published Nov. 15, 2023</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaime Toro works for West Virginia University. In the past, he has received funding from NSF, USGS and DOE.
</span></em></p>Iceland is known as ‘the land of fire and ice’ for a reason.Jaime Toro, Professor of Geology, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175002023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023’s extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564609/original/file-20231209-21-y5rf6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5772%2C3767&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme downpours filled downtown Montpelier, Vt., with water in July 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flooding-in-downtown-montpelier-vermont-on-tuesday-july-11-news-photo/1526471549">John Tully for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2023 was marked by extraordinary heat, wildfires and weather disasters. </p>
<p>In the U.S., an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> gripped much of Texas and the Southwest with highs well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 Celsius) for the entire month of July.</p>
<p>Historic rainfall in April <a href="https://theconversation.com/historic-flooding-in-fort-lauderdale-was-a-sign-of-things-to-come-a-look-at-who-is-most-at-risk-and-how-to-prepare-204101">flooded Fort Lauderdale, Florida</a>, with 25 inches of rain in 24 hours. A wave of severe storms in July sent water pouring into <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">cities across Vermont</a> and New York. Another powerful system in December swept up the Atlantic coast with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/18/east-coast-storm-winds-flooding-outages/">hurricane-like storm surge</a> and heavy rainfall. The West Coast started and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4_yCYlSnmo">ended the year</a> with flooding and mudslides from <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">atmospheric rivers</a>, and California was <a href="https://theconversation.com/tropical-storm-hilary-pounds-southern-california-with-heavy-rain-flash-flooding-211869">hit in August by a tropical storm</a> – an extremely rare event there.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Wildfires ravaged Hawaii</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-wildfire-b9d8968c1ce98b009c3ce95fa08a8f40">Louisiana</a> and several other states. And Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-wildfire-season-worst-ever-more-to-come-1.6934284">worst fire season</a> on record <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">sent thick smoke</a> across large parts of North America.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in shorts in flipflops walks among burned out cars. Not much remains of the houses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A person walks through a scene of destruction after a wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/28d53ef953524ec8ba61a0c7ec830881/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Globally, 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-warm-november-consolidates-2023-warmest-year">warmest year on record</a>, and it wreaked havoc around the world. <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role, but <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a> is at the root of the world’s increasing extreme weather.</p>
<p>So, how exactly is global warming linked to fires, storms and other disasters? I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s what you need to know.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as many countries saw in 2023.</p>
<p>Extreme heat waves hit large areas of North America, Europe and China, breaking many local high temperature records. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<p>Canada <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-report-card-2023-from-wildfires-to-melting-sea-ice-the-warmest-summer-on-record-had-cascading-impacts-across-the-arctic-218872">lost much of its snow cover</a> early in 2023, which allowed the ground to dry and vast fires to burn through the summer. The ground was also extremely dry in Maui in August when the city of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Lahaina, Hawaii, caught fire</a> during a windstorm and burned.</p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. This is the main reason for 2023’s record-breaking storms. Nineteen of the 25 weather and climate disasters that caused <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">over US$1 billion in damage</a> each through early December 2023 were severe storms, and two more were flooding that resulted from severe storms.</p>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line chart shows daily ocean temperature records for every year since 1981, 2023 was far beyond any other year starting in mid-May." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 went far beyond any other year in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a>. They can also lead to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of hurricanes.</p>
<p>Hurricane Otis, which hit Acapulco, Mexico, in October 2023, was a devastating example. It <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">exploded in strength</a>, rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a destructive Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. With little time to evacuate and <a href="https://theconversation.com/acapulco-was-built-to-withstand-earthquakes-but-not-hurricane-otis-destructive-winds-how-building-codes-failed-this-resort-city-217147">buildings not designed to withstand a storm that powerful</a>, more than 50 people died. The hurricane’s intensification was the <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">second-fastest ever recorded</a>, exceeded only by Hurricane Patricia in 2015.</p>
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<p>A recent study found that North Atlantic tropical cyclones’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">maximum intensification rates increased 28.7%</a> between the 1971-1990 average and the 2001-2020 average. The number of storms that spun up from a Category 1 storm or weaker to a major hurricane within 36 hours more than doubled.</p>
<p>The Mediterranean also experienced <a href="https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2023-09-13">a rare tropical-like cyclone</a> in September 2023 that offers a warning of the magnitude of the risks ahead – and a reminder that many communities are unprepared. Storm Daniel became one of the deadliest storms of its kind when it <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/storm-daniel-leads-extreme-rain-and-floods-mediterranean-heavy-loss-of-life-libya">hit Libya</a>. Its heavy rainfall overwhelmed two dams, causing them to collapse, killing <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-fears-rain-clouds-and-climate-change">thousands of people</a>. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/05/greece-flooding-daniel-climate-europe/">heat and increased moisture</a> over the Mediterranean made the storm possible.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US saw a record number of billion-dollar disasters in 2023, even when accounting for inflation. The number of long-running heat waves like the Southwest experienced is also rising.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155332023-12-14T22:54:08Z2023-12-14T22:54:08ZAustralia has invested heavily in a Pacific peacekeeping hub. So, where are the recruits?<p>Nestled not far from Fiji’s Nadi airport is the Blackrock Peacekeeping, Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Camp. Before reopening in March 2022, this military complex was renovated and expanded in a <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/australia-hands-over-redeveloped-blackrock-military-training-camp-to-fiji/2534521">A$100 million</a> <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/programs-initiatives/pacific-engagement/blackrock-camp-fiji">joint collaboration</a> between Australia and Fiji. </p>
<p>The complex is <a href="https://www.fbcnews.com.fj/news/plans-to-certify-rfmf-blackrock-camp/">envisioned</a> as a future training and regional response hub for both natural and man-made disasters in the Pacific. It’s also emblematic of Australia and Fiji’s <a href="https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/zed-seselja/transcript/opening-blackrock-peacekeeping-and-humanitarian-assistance-and-disaster-relief-camp">commitment</a> to an international rules-based order. This is made more notable by the fact Australia narrowly <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/366386/australian-offer-over-fiji-base-beats-china-s">outbid</a> China as the funder for the camp’s renovation.</p>
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<p>The need for a regional humanitarian logistics hub is clear. Oceania and South-East Asia experience <a href="https://www.undrr.org/publication/2020-non-covid-year-disasters">roughly 40%</a> of the world’s natural disasters – often in the form of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and increasingly destructive cyclones.</p>
<p>The new complex is based on a Pacific-centric and co-operative approach to addressing disasters, guaranteeing a speedy deployment of humanitarian relief workers and supplies when emergencies occur. As such, other Pacific Island countries have <a href="https://pina.com.fj/2022/09/19/pacific-ministers-endorse-fiji-militarys-blackrock-camp-as-disaster-relief-depot/">endorsed</a> it. </p>
<p>Nearly two years after opening, however, Blackrock’s value as a Pacific peacekeeping hub is not as clear. </p>
<h2>A history of Pacific peacekeeping</h2>
<p>Fiji has long been a consistent contributor to UN peacekeeping operations. The country <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/troop-and-police-contributors">sends</a> more than 300 peacekeepers to global hot spots every year. <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/09/fiji-the-peacekeepers/">Per capita</a>, Fiji provides more peacekeepers than any other country. </p>
<p>Other countries in the Pacific have been far less engaged. Besides Fiji, only Papua New Guinea and Tonga have traditional militaries from which they can draw soldiers to become peacekeepers. </p>
<p>PNG first fielded personnel on peace operations as part of the <a href="https://www.ramsi.org/about/">Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands</a> in 2000. While national pride and a belief in the importance of “nation building” have <a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/mapping-pacific-peacekeeping">motivated</a> PNG deployments, the country only has the capacity to contribute a few peacekeepers at a time. </p>
<p>Tonga has participated in US-led coalition operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past, as well as Australia and New Zealand-led operations in Bougainville and Solomon Islands. However, it has never contributed to a UN peace operation.</p>
<p>The remaining Pacific Islands have contributed to peacekeeping in other ways. Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu have all provided police, military advisers or other personnel in small numbers.</p>
<p>Despite historically limited engagement, many Pacific countries <a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/mapping-pacific-peacekeeping">want</a> to increase their participation in peacekeeping operations. They are motivated by: </p>
<ul>
<li>a desire to support countries wracked by conflict</li>
<li>political and cultural links in the region </li>
<li>national pride</li>
<li>the opportunity to gain operational experience </li>
<li>financial incentives.</li>
</ul>
<p>So far, Blackrock has been able to train roughly 400 Fijian peacekeepers every year. It has also begun to host training and joint exercises with troops and military experts from key partner <a href="https://www.contactairlandandsea.com/2022/09/18/multinational-shoot-house-exercise-in-fijis-new-blackrock-camp/">nations</a>, such as the US, Australia, Britain, New Zealand and <a href="https://www.fijitimes.com/blackrock-camp-gets-france-backing/">France</a>. Most recently, Blackrock <a href="https://images.defence.gov.au/assets/Home/Search?Query=20230329adf8671822_3002.jpg&Type=Filename">hosted</a> 14 Fijian and 10 Australian defence personnel for their first joint peacekeeping pre-deployment training. </p>
<p>Despite these notable achievements, the camp has not attracted peacekeeping candidates from elsewhere in the Pacific. </p>
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<h2>What Australia can do to help</h2>
<p>Pacific countries already have a high level of co-ordination on peace and security initiatives through the Pacific Islands Forum and other regional <a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/linked-documents/pacific-robp-2015-2017-sd.pdf">programs</a>. Therefore, a co-operative approach to peacekeeping seems reasonable.</p>
<p>As Inia Seruiratu, Fiji’s minister for defence, national security and foreign affairs, <a href="https://www.ipinst.org/2019/03/a4p-troop-contributing-countries-key-stakeholders#8">put it</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For small developing countries like Fiji, partnerships are the way forward. It is the new model of peacekeeping for us. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, there are formidable challenges to making Blackrock a truly successful training base for a future Pacific peacekeeping force. </p>
<p>First, many Pacific countries cannot afford to lose high-performing police and military personnel to peace operations. </p>
<p>Then there is the cost of operating a peacekeeping training centre year in, year out. This includes the massive cost of moving potential recruits around the region, as well as trainers and other personnel. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-wake-of-the-china-solomon-islands-pact-australia-needs-to-rethink-its-pacific-relationships-181702">In the wake of the China-Solomon Islands pact, Australia needs to rethink its Pacific relationships</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is where the support of partner countries like Australia is vital.</p>
<p>Australia will likely <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/programs-initiatives/pacific-engagement/infrastructure/maintenance-sustainment-program#:%7E:text=The%20Maintenance%20and%20Sustainment%20Program,of%20infrastructure%20assets%20is%20realised.">continue</a> to support the day-to-day operating costs of Blackrock as part of its enhanced engagement in the Pacific. </p>
<p>Beyond that, Australia can help meet the challenge of finding recruits by leveraging its old and new defence initiatives in the region.</p>
<p>For example, in recent days, Australia and PNG signed a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/07/australia-to-train-papua-new-guinea-police-as-two-nations-strike-new-security-deal">A$200 million deal</a> to help boost PNG’s security capacities, in part by establishing a new police recruit and investigations training centre. Earlier this year, Australia also <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/joint-statement-tarawa-kiribati">signed</a> a memorandum of understanding with Kiribati to help expand its police training, including training for UN peacekeeping operations. </p>
<p>These agreements should include Australian financial and transportation support for police and military personnel who are being upskilled to travel to Blackrock. </p>
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<h2>Why a regional peacekeeping force matters</h2>
<p>Supporting Pacific peacekeeping partnerships is a complex challenge that will require sustained support from Australia, but the benefits are substantial.</p>
<p>For one, Pacific countries’ security forces will continue to develop and professionalise by training in a multinational environment. These links will also improve the interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and its counterparts in the Pacific.</p>
<p>From a geo-strategic standpoint, cultivating regional security networks helps position Australia as the “security provider of choice” for Pacific Island states. </p>
<p>Lastly, the entire region will benefit from the creation of a well-trained force capable of deploying in support of conflicts and disasters. It will take the pressure off outside powers (including Australia, the US and even China) to do so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shannon Zimmerman is affiliated with Deakin's Centre for Future Defence and National Security </span></em></p>The new $100 million Blackrock peacekeeping training facility in Fiji has high ambitions, but will need Australia’s ongoing support to succeed.Shannon Zimmerman, Lecturer in Strategic Studies, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2178502023-11-23T12:56:40Z2023-11-23T12:56:40ZWe rarely hear about the disasters that were avoided – but there’s a lot we can learn from them<p>When a huge cyclone slammed into East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh) in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(72)91218-4/fulltext">November 1970</a> it caused water in the Ganges Delta to rise by 10 metres. Entire towns were submerged. At least 300,000 people died – it remains atop lists of the deadliest known tropical cyclones.</p>
<p>Something similar happened <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1993.tb00503.x">in 1991</a> – another 139,000 deaths. Bangladesh has a long list of cyclones with five or six figure death tolls.</p>
<p>These days, Bangladesh has a much larger population and is still getting hit by huge cyclones and widespread flooding. These storms are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6">getting stronger</a>. But these more <a href="https://theconversation.com/bangladesh-has-saved-thousands-of-lives-from-a-devastating-cyclone-heres-how-139903">recent cyclones</a> have each led to only dozens of deaths.</p>
<p>This is what prompted our research project on “<a href="https://disastersavoided.com">Disasters Avoided</a>”. We frequently see headlines about disasters. But where are the headlines covering the good news of lives saved and damage averted when disasters do not happen? Our work, now published, offers examples we can learn from.</p>
<p>We started by seeking examples of <a href="https://disastersavoided.com/case-studies-list">disasters that had been avoided</a>. There had to be a major environmental hazard – such as a tornado, earthquake, drought, wildfire, pathogen, landslide, volcanic eruption or heatwave – that didn’t lead to major casualties or disruption. And that had to be because disaster prevention actions were completed before the hazard struck.</p>
<p>In total, we looked in-depth at a dozen examples covering every inhabited continent. Some of the examples we found were very local. For instance a poorly extinguished campfire <a href="https://www.earthdatascience.org/courses/use-data-open-source-python/data-stories/cold-springs-wildfire/">ignited a wildfire</a> in the mountains of Colorado in July 2016. No one died, but 2,000 people were evacuated and eight houses completely burned.</p>
<p>Eight other houses in the torched forest survived. They were all certified by an NGO called <a href="https://wildfirepartners.org/">Wildfire Partners</a> as having taken its advice on using fire-resistant materials, removing fire-prone vegetation and storing woodpiles away from the house. While one homeowner was able to reoccupy their house immediately, their neighbour had to start rebuilding from scratch.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Burned out suburban neighbourhood" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aftermath of a 2021 fire in Colorado. Most homes are burned to the ground, but some are almost untouched.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/superior-co-january-17-2022-aerial-2109993011">Gabe Shakour / shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-06-2022-0135">Other examples</a> are wider-scale. The reduction in cyclone deaths in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25373-7_3">Bangladesh</a> was thanks to a long-term education, preparedness, warning, evacuation and sheltering programme. Actions included making schools a relatively safe place for people to shelter in, and giving volunteers megaphones to cycle around villages warning people. The death count should still be reduced much more, but the improvement over time is clear.</p>
<p>Vietnam also experiences major floods every year, with almost 12 million coastal people exposed. <a href="http://gcfundp-coastalresilience.com.vn/">One five-year project</a> is providing 4,000 flood-resilient houses, while planting coastal mangroves to deal with storm surges. In late 2019, storm Matmo struck Quang Ngai, destroying many houses. Many new flood-resilient houses survived, keeping people safe and supporting agriculture-based livelihoods.</p>
<h2>Scaling up</h2>
<p>Individual case studies are important. But if they are to be useful we need to identify what they can teach us, so we can scale up the local and national successes and transfer lessons to other places. We found six overall patterns:</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="How to avoid disasters diagram" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What to do.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gareth Byatt, Ilan Kelman, and Ana Prados</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>The right mindset</strong> to tackle the root causes of disasters and to focus on avoiding them. The right mindset includes understanding that disasters do not come from nature, so we <a href="https://nonaturaldisasters.com/">do not use the phrase “natural disaster”</a>. They are just disasters. They come from <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disaster-by-choice-9780198841357">the choices</a> we make to live and build in harm’s way, or more frequently to force people to live and work in harm’s way, without having the political power, resources, or opportunities to help themselves deal with hazards.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>The right investment</strong> at the right time, including showing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.08.004">the evidence</a> that it’s money well spent.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Good governance</strong> means well-managed investments and funds that deliver meaningful social, environmental, and livelihood benefits. It promotes actions that must be informed, accountable, and enforced.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Good data</strong> directs good decision-making. We should collect, analyse and act on good data. This data can take many forms and includes the obvious demographic and economic stats, but also observations from satellites, drones, or on-the-ground instruments, or people’s perceptions and experiences.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Meaningful inclusion</strong> of everyone, to agree on how we create a society that can withstand and live with nature’s energies and forces.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Targets that are realistic and achievable</strong> with the available resources. When appropriate, targets can be set, managed and linked to global efforts including the <a href="https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction</a>, the UN’s <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a>, climate change agreements, and those on <a href="https://habitat3.org/the-new-urban-agenda/">urban</a>, and <a href="https://www.csis.org/programs/humanitarian-agenda">humanitarian</a> agendas.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>These principles also reveal that not all disasters avoided are due to forethinking. Luck can play a role – in some cases, a disaster was avoided simply because there weren’t many humans living in the hazard-affected area. In other cases a disaster was avoided because short-term actions were taken (safe evacuation and sheltering, for instance), and other times because longer-term actions were taken (such as supporting flexible livelihoods that could be restarted immediately after a major hazard).</p>
<p>These categories indicate how we could and should do better, especially by trying to encourage active work towards longer-term planning and preparedness.</p>
<p><a href="http://disastersavoided.com/">Our work on disasters avoided continues</a>, highlighting that everyone needs to be involved. We are documenting <a href="https://irp.cdn-website.com/8bbcaf75/files/uploaded/Enterprise-Risk-Autumn-2023-Avoding-a-disaster.pdf">private sector examples of successes</a> while describing the importance of innovation. </p>
<p>Overall, the baseline that we see time and again in avoiding a disaster is that success comes when a wide variety of people and groups come together in a symphony of action. Disasters are avoided when everyone cares for everyone.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilan Kelman receives research funding from UK research councils, the Wellcome Trust, and NASA who partly supported the research reported here, as well as internal UCL funding. He is Professor II at the University of Agder in Norway, Visiting Researcher at Heidelberg Institute of Global Health in Germany, and co-directs the non-profit organisation Risk RED (Risk Reduction Education for Disasters).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ana Prados receives funding from NASA, who funded part of the research conducted for this article. She is a Senior Research Scientist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Byatt receives research funding from NASA who partly supported the research reported here. He is an independent consultant and a member of the Institute for Risk Management (the IRM).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brady Podloski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We rarely see good news headlines when a cyclone, earthquake or wildfire does not turn disastrous.Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health, UCLAna Prados, Senior Research Scientist, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyBrady Podloski, Instructor, Disaster and Emergency Management, Northern Alberta Institute of TechnologyGareth Byatt, Independent Consultant and Visiting Lecturer, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176712023-11-15T19:01:26Z2023-11-15T19:01:26ZVolcanic Iceland is rumbling again as magma rises − a geologist explains eruptions in the land of fire and ice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559685/original/file-20231115-25-q2cv1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=126%2C247%2C3627%2C2264&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The same region of Iceland saw an eruption in July 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-watch-flowing-lava-during-an-volcanic-eruption-near-news-photo/1521694001">Kristinn Magnusson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">Thousands of earthquakes</a> in recent weeks have shaken the Icelandic fishing town of Grindavík, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) southwest of the capital Reykjavik. They have <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iceland-volcano-earthquakes-evacuation-aviation-3bb2f4d18cb7c62967a7ce16cc1b70d3">triggered evacuations</a> and warnings that a volcanic eruption may be imminent.</p>
<p>While the idea of magma rising was no doubt scary for tourists visiting the nearby Blue Lagoon geothermal spa, which was <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueLagoonIS/status/1722551468958294515">closed as a precaution</a>, Iceland’s residents have learned over centuries to live with their island’s overactive geology.</p>
<p>So, why is Iceland so volcanically active?</p>
<p>The answer has two parts: One has to do with what geologists unimaginatively <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/volcanic-hotspot.html">call a hotspot</a>, and the other involves giant tectonic plates that are pulling apart right beneath the island. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=r8FqGBEAAAAJ&hl=en">a geologist</a>, I study both.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Magma runs downhill in multiple streams over cooled lava." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559686/original/file-20231115-19-bcq5zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559686/original/file-20231115-19-bcq5zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559686/original/file-20231115-19-bcq5zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559686/original/file-20231115-19-bcq5zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559686/original/file-20231115-19-bcq5zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559686/original/file-20231115-19-bcq5zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559686/original/file-20231115-19-bcq5zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eruptions in this region of Iceland tend to flow rather than being explosive, as residents saw in July 2023 and in 2021-22.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-aerial-photograph-taken-on-july-10-2023-shows-flowing-news-photo/1520071527">Kristinn Magnusson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Life on the edge of two tectonic plates</h2>
<p>When <a href="https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/animation/plate_tectonic_theorya_brief_history">plate tectonic theory</a> was emerging in the 1960s, geologists realized that many volcanoes are located in zones where tectonic plates meet. Tectonic plates are gigantic chunks of Earth’s rigid outer layer that carry both continents and oceans and are constantly in motion. They <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/tectonic-plates-earth">cover the planet</a> like large pieces of a spherical jigsaw puzzle.</p>
<p>Many of these volcanoes are in subduction zones, like the Pacific’s <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/plate-tectonics-ring-fire/">Ring of Fire</a>, where thinner oceanic plates slowly sink into <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/mantle/">Earth’s mantle</a>. These are the postcard stratovolcanoes like Mount Fuji, in Japan, or Mount Rainier, outside of Seattle. Because of their high gas content, they tend to erupt catastrophically, shooting ash high into the atmosphere with the energy of nuclear bombs, as <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-st.-helens/1980-cataclysmic-eruption">Mount St. Helens did in 1980</a>.</p>
<p>A second, typically quieter kind of volcano forms <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/mid-ocean-ridge.html">where plates pull apart</a>.</p>
<p>The volcanic activity near Grindavík is directly related to this kind of plate tectonic motion. The mid-Atlantic ridge between the Eurasian and North American plates cuts right through that part of the island.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where the earthquakes are taking place in a southwest peninsula and where the tectonic plates meet." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559688/original/file-20231115-22-mdyae8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iceland sits atop the meeting of two tectonic plates, the North American to the west and Eurasian to the east, indicated by the red line crossing the island. The maps show the earthquake swarms on Nov. 12-14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-infographic-titled-iceland-prepares-for-volcanic-news-photo/1782148842?adppopup=true">Yasin Demirci/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows details of midocean ridges looking like seams on a baseball as they wind through the major oceans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559732/original/file-20231115-27-7uf0ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the 1950s, cartographer Marie Tharp used echo soundings gathered by ships to develop the first map showing the ocean floor in detail. It clearly revealed the mid-ocean ridges. This hand-painted version of her map includes annotations showing hotspot tracks related to movement of the plates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/">Heinrich C. Berann via Library of Congress; annotations by Jaime Toro</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, at <a href="https://guidetoiceland.is/connect-with-locals/jorunnsg/ingvellir-national-park">Thingvellir National Park</a> you can literally walk between the two tectonic plates. You can see the topographic scars of the rift in the long, linear valleys that extend to the northeast from Grindavík. They align with the recent swarm of earthquakes and the <a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/bigimg/4511?ListID=0">ground deformation</a> that is happening. </p>
<p><a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">Radar satellite data</a> from the Icelandic Meteorological Office show that a broad area around Grindavík sank by about 3 feet (1 meter) over 10 days, and the <a href="https://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/">GPS station</a> in town moved about 3 feet (1 meter) to the southeast with respect to the North American plate from Oct. 28 to Nov. 9. Large cracks have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4rkITMtyqU">broken streets and houses</a> in Grindavík.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A color-coded map shows where an area about 3 miles (5 km) long and about half a mile (1 km) wide depressed by more than 3 feet (1 meter)." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559441/original/file-20231114-19-iziwv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559441/original/file-20231114-19-iziwv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559441/original/file-20231114-19-iziwv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559441/original/file-20231114-19-iziwv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559441/original/file-20231114-19-iziwv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559441/original/file-20231114-19-iziwv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559441/original/file-20231114-19-iziwv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimates of how the ground deformed near Grindavík, Iceland, on Nov. 10-11, 2023. The vertical movements of more than 3 feet (dark purple), between Grindavík on the ocean and the Blue Lagoon north of it, were caused by the magma dike’s movement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/bigimg/4511?ListID=0">Icelandic Met Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Where plates pull away from each other, the underlying mantle rises toward the surface to fill the gap, carrying its heat with it and moving into an area of lower pressure. Those <a href="https://www.e-education.psu.edu/rocco/node/1988">two processes</a> cause melting at depth and volcanic activity at the surface.</p>
<p>Starting in October 2023, this pressurized magma began pushing its way along a fissure toward the surface, triggering the earthquake swarms and creating the <a href="https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night">possibility of an eruption</a>.</p>
<p>This is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheeted_dyke_complex">same process that creates new oceanic crust</a> underwater at mid-ocean ridges. After the magma solidifies as basalt rock, it will look like vertical walls intruded into the surrounding area. The Grindavík dike appeared to have reached within about 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) of the surface by Nov. 14 and could soon reach the surface.</p>
<h2>Sitting on a hotspot</h2>
<p>In Iceland, the large volcanoes in the interior also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.02.022">appear to be over a mantle plume</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-mauna-loas-lava-is-coming-from-and-why-hawaiis-volcanoes-are-different-from-most-195633">similar to Hawaii</a>. </p>
<p>This kind of volcano typically erupts basalt lava, which melts at very high temperature and tends to flow easily. Eruptions are generally not explosive because the runny lava allows gases to escape. This is the reason why tourists often <a href="https://youtu.be/GUrIjV82I40?feature=shared">can safely watch lava flows</a> in Hawaii or Iceland.</p>
<p>Exactly what causes hot material to rise at hotspots is still debated, but the most commonly accepted idea is that they are caused by plumes of super-heated rock that originate at the transition <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.349.6252.1032">between Earth’s metallic core and rocky mantle</a>. Hotspots are a mechanism for the Earth to give off some of its <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/earth-s-insides-are-cooling-faster-than-we-thought-and-it-will-mess-things-up">internal heat</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Hl1gfV-TdU0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How hotspots develop. Video by Volcano Museum.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If there is an eruption in Iceland, the basaltic lava will most likely flow relatively peacefully downhill, as it did when Fagradalsfjall volcano erupted in 2021-22 just east of Grindavík, until it reaches the sea. However, when lava that is 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit (about 1,000 Celsius) hits water, it will flash to steam, causing explosions that can scatter ash over a large area. </p>
<h2>A silver lining of Iceland’s volcanoes</h2>
<p>Living in an active volcanic area has some advantages, particularly for energy.</p>
<p>Iceland derives 30% of its electricity from geothermal sources that use underground heat to drive turbines and produce power. It’s almost like a controlled version of a lava flow hitting the sea, and it helps make Iceland <a href="https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-the-deal-with-iceland#details">one of the cleanest economies on earth</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People sit in an eggshell-blue lake surrounded by black lava rocks. Steam rises in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559465/original/file-20231114-21-f3fk7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iceland has a lot of natural hot springs, but its Blue Lagoon has an unusual origin linked to geothermal energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/people-swimming-on-hot-spring-near-mountain-during-daytime-jTeQavJjBDs">Photo by Jeff Sheldon on Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A hydrothermal plant called <a href="https://www.verkis.com/projects/energy-production/geothermal-energy/nr/936">Svartsengi</a>, near Grindavík, uses the underground heat to provide hot water for several thousand homes plus 75 megawatts of electricity. The plant pumps water through wells drilled into the volcanic field. This water boils to steam, which is then fed to turbines that generate power and to heat exchangers that make hot water for direct heating of homes.</p>
<p>That power plant is also part of the reason the <a href="https://www.bluelagoon.com/">Blue Lagoon</a> is so popular. When the power plant was built in 1976, the plan was to discharge its still hot wastewater into an adjacent low area, expecting that it would seep into the ground. However, the geothermal water was loaded with dissolved silica, which became solid minerals when the water cooled, creating an impermeable layer. A small lake began to form.</p>
<p>Because of its high silica content, the water in this lake is a spectacular blue color that inspired the creation of the geothermal spa. The Blue Lagoon is now one of the top tourist attractions in the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaime Toro works for West Virginia University. In the past, he has received funding from NSF, USGS and DOE. </span></em></p>Iceland’s volcanic activity is generally tame compared with explosive eruptions along the Pacific’s Ring of Fire. This time, it’s shaking up a town.Jaime Toro, Professor of Geology, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114822023-10-05T12:33:47Z2023-10-05T12:33:47ZClimate change is a fiscal disaster for local governments − our study shows how it’s testing communities in Florida<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551841/original/file-20231003-27-j5xxho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C4%2C2977%2C2079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crews clear lots of destroyed homes in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., in February 2022, four months after Hurricane Ian.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-construction-crews-clear-lots-of-homes-news-photo/1459509524">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-for-a-us-climate-haven-away-from-disaster-risks-good-luck-finding-one-211990">affecting communities nationwide</a>, but Florida often seems like ground zero. In September 2022, Hurricane Ian <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/us/hurricane-ian-florida-damage.html">devastated southwest Florida</a>, killing at least 156 people and causing <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092022_Ian.pdf">an estimated US$113 billion</a> in damages. Then Hurricane Idalia <a href="https://apnews.com/article/florida-hurricane-idalia-2136985ceea53f5deb600c43aeea1138">shut down the Florida Panhandle</a> in September 2023, augmented by a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/science/blue-supermoon.html">blue supermoon</a> that also increased <a href="https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/2023/08/31/hurricane-idalia-super-blue-moon-unusual-post-landfall-storm-surge-into-wakulla-county/70726049007/">tidal flooding</a> in southeast Florida. </p>
<p>Communities can adapt to some of these effects, or at least <a href="https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/docs/climatebook/Ch11-Bloetscher.pdf">buy time</a>, by taking steps such as upgrading stormwater systems and raising roads and sidewalks. But climate disasters and sea-level rise also harm local governments financially by increasing costs and undercutting their property tax bases. Local reliance on property taxes also can discourage cities from steering development out of flood zones, which is essential for reducing long-term risks.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2023.2249866">newly published study</a> and supporting <a href="https://cugis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=754b615fa5db4bbea0ed393a2c730163">online StoryMap</a>, we present the first-ever municipal fiscal impact assessment of sea-level rise in Florida and combine it with a statewide survey of coastal planners and managers. We wanted to know how sea-level rise would affect municipal tax revenues and whether coastal planners and managers are accounting for these fiscal impacts.</p>
<p>Our study finds that over half of Florida’s 410 municipalities will be affected by 6.6 feet of sea-level rise. Almost 30% of all local revenues currently generated by these 211 municipalities come from buildings in areas that will become chronically flooded, potentially by the <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html">end of the century</a>. Yet, planners and managers remain largely unaware of how much climate change will affect local fiscal health. Some communities with the most at risk are doing the least to prepare.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6vTW7SOWp2Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A year after Hurricane Ian, destruction is still widespread in Fort Myers Beach, Fla.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Property tax and climate change: A Catch-22</h2>
<p>Property taxes are critically important for municipal governments. Nationwide, they provide <a href="https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-and-local-finance-initiative/projects/state-and-local-backgrounders/property-taxes">30% of local revenues</a>. They are one of the few funding sources that local governments control, and climate change directly threatens them.</p>
<p>As climate change warms ocean waters, it <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ian-capped-2-weeks-of-extreme-storms-around-the-globe-heres-whats-known-about-how-climate-change-fuels-tropical-cyclones-191583">fuels hurricanes and increases their reach and intensity</a>. Climate change also is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#">raising sea levels</a>, which increases coastal flooding during both storms and high tides, often referred to as <a href="https://www.wusf.org/environment/2021-07-15/sunny-day-high-tide-flooding-may-soon-affect-much-of-floridas-coast">sunny-day flooding</a>. Unlike storms, sea-level rise doesn’t recede, so it threatens to permanently inundate coastal lands over time. </p>
<p>Property tax revenues may decline as <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/homesec/R45999.pdf">insurance companies</a> and <a href="https://floodcoalition.org/2020/05/how-could-rising-floodwaters-impact-your-homes-value/">property markets</a> downgrade property values to reflect climate impacts, such as increasing flood risks and wildfires. Already, a growing number of insurance companies have decided to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/natural-disaster-climate-insurance/">stop covering some regions and types of weather events</a>, raise premiums and deductibles and drop existing policies as payouts rise in the wake of natural disasters. Growing costs of insuring or repairing homes may further hurt property values and increase home abandonment. </p>
<p>Climate change also makes it more expensive to provide municipal services like water, sewage and road maintenance. For example, high heat buckles roads, rising water tables wash out their substructure, and heavier rains stress stormwater systems. If cities don’t adapt, increasing damage from climate-driven disasters and sea-level rise will create a vicious fiscal cycle, eroding local tax bases and driving up services costs – which in turn leaves less money for adaptation. </p>
<p>However, if cities reduce development in vulnerable areas, their property taxes and other revenues will take a hit. And if they build more seawalls and homes fortified to withstand hurricanes and storms, they will induce more people to live in harm’s way. </p>
<p>In Florida, we found that these theoretical dynamics are already occurring.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwA3vzEIlF6","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Florida’s local revenues at risk</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows that sea-level rise could flood properties that have a combined assessed value of $619 billion and currently generate $2.36 billion in annual property taxes. Five million Floridians live in towns where at least 10% of local revenues comes from properties at risk of chronic and permanent flooding. For 64 municipalities, 50% of their revenues come from these risk zones. </p>
<p>Actual fiscal effects would likely be worse after accounting for other lost revenues, rising expenditures and the impacts of multiple climate hazards, such as hotter weather and more intense hurricanes.</p>
<p>These impacts are not evenly distributed. Municipalities with the greatest fiscal risks are geographically and demographically smaller, denser, wealthier and whiter. Lower-risk municipalities tend to be more populous, more diverse, lower-income and have larger land areas. </p>
<p>For instance, the 6,800 residents of the city of Treasure Island in southwest Florida are 95% white and have a median household income of $75,000. The town occupies 3 square miles of land on a barrier island. In our model, its potential lost revenues due to sea-level rise equal its entire municipal revenue stream. </p>
<p>In contrast, St. Petersburg, the nearest big city, has a population of 246,000 residents that is 69% white and a median household income of $53,800. It covers 72 square miles, with only 12% of its property tax revenues at risk from flooding.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwjuLrJt4Uz","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Heads in the sand</h2>
<p>We see our findings as a wake-up call for state and local governments. Without urgent action to adapt to climate change, dozens of municipalities could end up fiscally underwater. </p>
<p>Instead, many Florida cities are pursuing continued growth through infrastructure expansion. Even after devastating events like Hurricane Ian, administrative boundaries, service obligations and budgetary responsibilities make it hard for municipal leaders to make room for water or retreat onto higher ground. </p>
<p>Treasure Island, for instance, is <a href="https://www.tbnweekly.com/beach_beacon/article_348defb2-0934-11e9-a4a4-eb7ed7651e85.html">allocating property taxes</a> to upgrade the town’s causeway bridge. This protects against modest climate impacts in the short term but will eventually be overwhelmed by bigger storm surges, rising water tables and <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#">accelerating sea-level rise</a>. </p>
<p>These dynamics can worsen <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-miami-keeps-building-rising-seas-deepen-its-social-divide">displacement and gentrification</a>. In Miami, developers are already buying and consolidating properties in longtime Black and lower-income neighborhoods like <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/33d28b4ae86840b5b27ea8ba4b4bcc4d">Little Haiti</a>, <a href="https://nextcity.org/features/miami-underdeck-overtown-black-community-gentrification-displacement">Overtown</a> and <a href="https://www.equaltimes.org/welcome-to-miami-speculation?lang=en">Liberty City</a> that are slightly more elevated than areas along the shore.</p>
<p>If this pattern continues, we expect that inland and upland areas of cities like St. Petersburg, Tampa and Miami will attract more resilient, high-end development, while displaced low-income and minority residents are forced to move either out of the region or to coastal zones with declining resources. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PB_sVUXg4Lc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Wealthy people in Miami are moving inland to avoid flooding, displacing lower-income residents and people of color.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Charting a different future</h2>
<p>We don’t see this outcome as inevitable, in Florida or elsewhere. There are ways for municipalities to manage and govern land that promote fiscally sound, equitable and sustainable ways of adapting to climate change. The key is recognizing and addressing the property tax Catch-22. </p>
<p>As a first step, governments could assess how climate change will affect their fiscal health. Second, state governments could enact legislation that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2018/09/14/the-case-against-property-taxes-and-two-alternative-taxes-that-work/">expands local revenue sources</a>, such as sales or consumption taxes, vacancy taxes, stormwater impact fees and resilience bonds or fees.</p>
<p>Regional sharing of land and taxes is another way for small, cash-strapped communities to reduce development in vulnerable places while maintaining services for their residents. For example, New Hampshire passed a bill in 2019 to <a href="https://legiscan.com/NH/text/SB285/2019">allow coastal municipalities to merge</a> in response to sea-level rise. </p>
<p>Finally, state governments could pass legislation to help low-income neighborhoods gain more control over land and housing. Tested tools include <a href="https://nextcity.org/urbanist-news/a-lifeline-for-preserving-limited-equity-co-ops-in-new-york">limited equity cooperatives</a>, where residents buy an affordable share in a development and later resell at below-market prices to maintain affordability; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/08/realestate/community-land-trusts-gentrification.html">community land trusts</a>, where a nonprofit buys and holds land title to keep land costs down; and <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/04/08/residents-buying-mobile-home-parks-preserving-affordable-housing-option-low-income-americans/">resident-owned mobile home parks</a>, where residents jointly buy the land. All of these strategies help communities keep housing affordable and avoid displacement. </p>
<p>Shifting away from a business-as-usual development model won’t be easy. But our study shows that Florida, with its flat topography and thousands of miles of coastline, faces cascading fiscal impacts if it continues down its current path.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda Shi receives funding from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tisha Joseph Holmes received funding from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Center for Disease Control and Provention. She is affiliated with REfire Culinary. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Butler received funding from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection in support of this research. </span></em></p>A new study of Florida’s fiscal vulnerability to climate change finds that flooding directly threatens many local tax bases.Linda Shi, Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning, Cornell UniversityTisha Joseph Holmes, Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State UniversityWilliam Butler, Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143092023-10-02T15:01:31Z2023-10-02T15:01:31ZGlaciers can give us clues about when a volcano might erupt<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550281/original/file-20230926-23-2qa2o3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C588%2C4000%2C2396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/skier-snowy-volcano-niseko-hokkaido-japan-2139353883">Mayumi.K.Photography/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Globally, there is about one volcano erupting <a href="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-153/FAQs.pdf">each week</a>. Volcanic unrest kills an average of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-017-0067-4">500 people every year</a> and costs the global economy roughly US$7 billion (£5.7 billion). With <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1464286702000025#:%7E:text=Using%20recently%20compiled%20databases%20of,during%20the%20last%2010%2C000%20years.">one in 20 people</a> living somewhere at risk of volcanic activity, every effort that can be made to improve the monitoring of volcanoes is important. </p>
<p>This is especially true for volcanoes covered by glaciers – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103356">roughly 18%</a> of all volcanoes on Earth. When these erupt, the consequences can be among the deadliest of all natural disasters. </p>
<p>The Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia killed nearly 25,000 people in 1985 when its eruption caused the near-instantaneous melting of overlying glacier ice and snow, forming a deadly mix of water and eruptive material (mostly ash and gas) that hurtled down a populated valley at incredible speed. Glaciers on volcanoes are not only dangerous, they make monitoring volcanoes from the ground and from above using satellites particularly tricky.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A mountainous scene with a large smoking crater covered in snow." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550278/original/file-20230926-29-z15x8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C799%2C501&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550278/original/file-20230926-29-z15x8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550278/original/file-20230926-29-z15x8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550278/original/file-20230926-29-z15x8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550278/original/file-20230926-29-z15x8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550278/original/file-20230926-29-z15x8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550278/original/file-20230926-29-z15x8u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The crater of Nevado del Ruiz in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevado_del_Ruiz#/media/File:Volcan_Nevado_del_Ruiz-2023.png">Portal Servicio Geológico Colombiano</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fortunately, in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1130/G51411.1">a new study</a>, we found that these glaciers can offer clues about what’s happening to the volcano below. This could help improve the monitoring of volcanoes that might erupt in the future.</p>
<h2>Hotting up</h2>
<p>Research has tentatively revealed that volcano temperatures change over time and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00705-4">increase towards an eruption</a>. In some cases, these changes can be recorded over several years before visible unrest begins. It’s possible to monitor this via satellite, but the signal can be masked by clouds or disrupted by the ice or snow sitting on top of a volcano.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A volcano spewing ash, seen from a distant grassland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550283/original/file-20230926-25-rlduxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550283/original/file-20230926-25-rlduxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550283/original/file-20230926-25-rlduxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550283/original/file-20230926-25-rlduxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550283/original/file-20230926-25-rlduxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550283/original/file-20230926-25-rlduxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550283/original/file-20230926-25-rlduxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vaporised snow and ash combine during eruptions of ice-clad volcanoes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/karimskiy-volcano-volcanic-eruption-kamchatka-ash-468722087">LukaKikina/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although thought to move very slowly, glaciers are quite dynamic. These rivers of ice flow faster or slower depending on what’s happening in their environment. This may come as no surprise – most glaciers around the world are now shrinking due to rising global temperatures, and many will soon disappear.</p>
<p>But glaciers are sensitive to other changes too. For example, if a volcano’s temperature increases over time, the glacier sitting on it will melt faster and shrink to higher elevations. We thought this shrinking might indicate that something is brewing in the volcano below, so we analysed the elevation of 600 glaciers that either sat on or near (between 1km and 15km) 37 ice-clad volcanoes in South America using computer models. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A volcano with an ice-covered summit seen from a distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550277/original/file-20230926-15-6d5e4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550277/original/file-20230926-15-6d5e4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550277/original/file-20230926-15-6d5e4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550277/original/file-20230926-15-6d5e4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550277/original/file-20230926-15-6d5e4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550277/original/file-20230926-15-6d5e4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550277/original/file-20230926-15-6d5e4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ice-clad Cotopaxi volcano in the Andes mountains, Ecuador.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cotopaxi-volcano-appears-clouds-light-snow-484202014">Ecuadorpostales/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Normally, elevation does not vary much from glacier to glacier within the same climate region. But our results showed that, in some cases, glacier elevation progressively decreases with distance from a volcano. In other words, glaciers further from a volcano tended to reach further down the mountain valley that hosted them.</p>
<p>The drop in glacier elevation moving away from a volcano can be as much as 600 metres. This is bigger than what we would expect to see with natural variation alone, especially for the relatively small glaciers we investigated. </p>
<h2>A sign from below</h2>
<p>Glaciers sitting on volcanoes are typically confined to higher elevations (230 metres higher, on average) compared with those nearby. Most importantly, our study showed that this difference is linked to measured volcanic temperatures: volcanoes with higher measured temperatures hosted glaciers at particularly high elevations.</p>
<p>This is really exciting because it paves the way for using glaciers to improve volcano monitoring. If the elevation of a glacier on top of a volcano changes over a short period (five to ten years, say), and the speed of this change cannot be attributed to climate change, it might signal a forthcoming period of volcanic unrest.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bylTVZFQOsE?wmode=transparent&start=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>Glaciers sitting on volcanoes act as icy thermometers in volcano monitoring. This insight could help create early-warning systems capable of reducing the deadliness of erupting ice-clad volcanoes.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matteo Spagnolo receives funding from NERC and the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brice Rea receives funding from NERC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iestyn Barr receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust and NERC </span></em></p>Like icy thermometers, glaciers overlying volcanoes shift according to temperature changes below.Matteo Spagnolo, Professor of Geography and the Environment, School of Geosciences, University of AberdeenBrice Rea, Professor of Geography, University of AberdeenIestyn Barr, Reader in Physical Geography, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2129792023-09-26T13:44:03Z2023-09-26T13:44:03ZEnvironmental disasters and climate change force people to cross borders, but they’re not recognised as refugees – they should be<p>As our planet warms, we’re experiencing <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/extreme-weather-and-climate-change/">more frequent</a> and severe weather events, rising sea levels, prolonged droughts and altered ecosystems. These environmental shifts directly affect people’s livelihoods by destroying crops and depleting water sources. They make once-inhabitable areas uninhabitable. </p>
<p>In response to these challenges, many individuals and communities have no choice but to abandon their homes and seek safety elsewhere. The vast majority will remain within their country borders – it’s predicted that by 2050 up to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/10/27/climate-change-could-further-impact-africa-s-recovery-pushing-86-million-africans-to-migrate-within-their-own-countries">86 million Africans</a> will migrate within their own countries due to weather shocks. But some will cross borders, triggering the need for international protection. </p>
<p>The challenge, however, is that people crossing borders due to weather don’t qualify as refugees under key laws and conventions. This displacement could be due to sudden-onset events, such as volcanic eruptions or flooding, which may pose an immediate threat to life. Or it could be due to slow-onset events, such as desertification or rising sea levels, which may eventually make life untenable. </p>
<p>It’s hard to say exactly how many people this affects because it’s a <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/06/lets-talk-about-climate-migrants-not-climate-refugees/">complex topic</a>. However, we do know that cross-border migration affects <a href="https://www.savethechildren.net/news/drought-and-conflict-drive-highest-number-somalis-kenya-refugee-camps-decade">tens of thousands of people</a> every year. For instance <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/horn-africa-drought-enters-sixth-failed-rainy-season-unhcr-calls-urgent-assistance">drought conditions</a> in 2022, exacerbated by political insecurity and instability, forced at least 180,000 refugees from Somalia and South Sudan into parts of Kenya and Ethiopia.</p>
<p>It’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367965451_African_Shifts_The_Africa_Climate_Mobility_Report_Addressing_Climate-Forced_Migration_Displacement#page=85">predicted</a> that the number of people displaced due to weather shifts or disasters will reach as many as 1.2 million people by 2050. This figure will depend on how changes in the climate unfold. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-force-up-to-113m-people-to-relocate-within-africa-by-2050-new-report-193633">Climate change will force up to 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050 - new report</a>
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<p>Without refugee status, those forced to move across borders due to weather events may not receive valuable support. Depending on the individual country, support can include the right to live and work, access to health or education services and the right to move freely. </p>
<p>I study the legal protection of asylum seekers, refugees, migrants and internally displaced people in Africa. I recommend that international laws and conventions be amended to explicitly include people forced by weather shocks to move across borders. They need full refugee protection. </p>
<h2>Lack of protection</h2>
<p>A variety of laws ensure refugees’ basic human rights are protected. The core of “refugee law” is constituted by the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/about-unhcr/who-we-are/1951-refugee-convention">1951 Geneva Refugee Convention</a> – a United Nations multilateral treaty that defines who a refugee is – and its 1967 <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/protocol-relating-status-refugees">New York Protocol</a>. Refugees in Africa are also protected by the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/media/oau-convention-governing-specific-aspects-refugee-problems-africa-adopted-assembly-heads">1969 Organisation of African Unity (OAU) Convention</a>. </p>
<p>These laws provide them with a safe haven, access to fair asylum procedures and protection from discrimination. The domestic laws of many African countries incorporate these international principles. This offers legal safeguards and support to refugees, helping them seek safety and rebuild their lives.</p>
<p>As I mention in a <a href="https://www.academia.edu/79451051/Climate_induced_displacement_in_the_Sahel_A_question_of_classification">recent study</a>, the challenge with the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/afr/publications/legal/5ddfcdc47/handbook-procedures-criteria-determining-refugee-status-under-1951-convention.html">Refugee Convention</a> is that it rules out people who are “victims of famine or natural disaster” unless they also have a “well‑founded fear of persecution”. For instance, people fleeing Ethiopia between 1983 and 1985 due to drought would be considered refugees because they also feared persecution by the Mengistu Haile Mariam-led military dictatorship (Derg) which was <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/Ethiopia919.pdf">deliberately restricting food supplies</a> in parts of the country. </p>
<p>The United Nations agency mandated to aid and protect refugees, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugee (UNHCR), follows the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/afr/publications/legal/5ddfcdc47/handbook-procedures-criteria-determining-refugee-status-under-1951-convention.html">definition</a> provided by the Refugee Convention. As does the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/about-unhcr/who-we-are/global-compact-refugees">Global Compact on Refugees</a>, a UN-driven blueprint for governments, international organisations and other stakeholders.</p>
<p>This means that people forcibly displaced only by environmental disasters are not entitled to refugee status, although deserving of temporary protection. </p>
<p>Within Africa, there’s a debate about whether the 1969 <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/oau-convention-governing-specific-aspects-refugee-problems-africa">Organisation for the African Unity (OAU) Refugee Convention</a> originally included people displaced by natural disasters in its definition of “refugees”. Some practitioners believe it does, though this <a href="https://international-review.icrc.org/sites/default/files/reviews-pdf/2022-05/climate-induced-displacement-in-the-sahel-classification-918.pdf">stance</a> appears limited to human-made disasters.</p>
<p>When it comes to domestic laws, as of now, there’s no African country that recognises people fleeing natural disasters as a “refugee”. </p>
<p>There is, however, some movement. People fleeing environmental disasters are increasingly being recognised by international organisations. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-commits-climate-action-africa-protect-displaced-populations-and-foster">UNHCR</a> recognises them as a vulnerable category of persons to be protected. It has <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-commits-climate-action-africa-protect-displaced-populations-and-foster">raised awareness</a> of climate change as a driver of displacement and the need to address protection for people displaced in the context of disasters. UNHCR is also <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/legacy-pdf/5975e6cf7.pdf">working on</a> addressing legal gaps related to cross-border disaster-displacement. </p>
<p>But there’s still more to be done.</p>
<h2>What needs to change</h2>
<p>People displaced by adverse weather developments should be given more than temporary protection. This will require changes to international regulations and national laws. </p>
<p>For instance, a protocol regarding climate-induced displacement should be added to the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/media/oau-convention-governing-specific-aspects-refugee-problems-africa-adopted-assembly-heads">1969 OAU convention</a> so that displaced people who cross international borders are legally covered.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristiano d'Orsi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Without refugee status people aren’t able to receive valuable support, like the right to live and work in a country.Cristiano d'Orsi, Lecturer and Senior Research Fellow at the South African Research Chair in International Law (SARCIL), University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136802023-09-21T13:44:56Z2023-09-21T13:44:56ZWas the freak ‘medicane’ storm that devastated Libya a glimpse of North Africa’s future?<p>Storm Daniel landed on the Libyan coastal town of Toukrah in the early hours of September 10 and started moving east. Soon the wind was rising and heavy rain falling, forcing people to stay indoors. By afternoon the rain was clearly out of the ordinary. </p>
<p>Albaydah city on the coast would receive 80% of its annual rain before midnight, according to records from a local weather station that we have accessed. In less than 24 hours, thousands of people were dead, hundreds of thousands were missing, and towns and villages across Jebel Akhdar (the Green Mountain) in north-eastern Libya resembled a Hollywood disaster movie.</p>
<p>Storm Daniel was a Mediterranean cyclone or hurricane (a so-called medicane) which struck Greece, Bulgaria, Libya, Egypt and Turkey over the course of a week. Medicanes are not rare. Such large storms happen in this part of the world every few years. But Daniel has proved to be the deadliest. </p>
<p>At the time of writing, the World Health Organization <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/17/africa/un-revises-libya-death-toll/index.html">estimates</a> that at least 3,958 people have died across Libya as a result of the floods, with more than 9,000 people still missing.</p>
<p>Daniel was not an exceptionally big storm though. The medicane with the highest wind speeds was medicane Ianos in September 2020, which killed around four people and caused more than €224 million (£193 million) of <a href="https://www.aon.com/getmedia/53674ecf-5d58-46d4-9e0c-5aa8e0d6f9cf/20210125-if-annual-cat-report.pdf">damage</a>. So what made Storm Daniel different?</p>
<h2>Less frequent, but stronger</h2>
<p>Like tropical cyclones, medicanes form in hot conditions at the end of summer. Most medicanes form to the west of the islands of Corsica and Sardinia. As they tend to strike the same regions each time, the people living in the western Mediterranean, southern Italy and western Greece, have built structures to deal with these storms and the occasional downpours they bring. </p>
<p>Daniel formed relatively far to the east and struck north-eastern Libya, which is rare. Dozens of people were killed in communities across Cyrenaica, the eastern portion of the country. </p>
<p>In the mountain gorge above the city of Derna, <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-floods-the-drowning-of-derna-was-a-man-made-disaster-decades-in-the-making-213797">two dams failed</a> in the middle of the night. Thousands of people, most of whom were asleep, are thought to have perished when the wave of water and debris swept down to the coast, destroying a quarter of the city.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A composite image of two aerial photographs of a city taken by satellite." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Derna, a city in eastern Libya, before and after Storm Daniel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth/Holly Squire</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Since medicanes are formed in part by excess heat, events like this are highly sensitive to climate change. A rapid attribution study suggested greenhouse gas emissions made Daniel <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66854670">50 times more likely</a>.</p>
<p>Despite this, the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">sixth assessment report</a> from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that medicanes are becoming less frequent but larger. Storm Daniel suggests where medicanes form and make landfall might be more important than their frequency and size. </p>
<p>So does Libya need to brace itself for more of these events in the future than it has in the past, even if they affect the western Mediterranean less often?</p>
<h2>Clues from the past</h2>
<p>An important clue might lie deep underground, inside caves within north-eastern Libya. Although the caves are often dry today, they contain stalagmites which formed when rain passed through the soil, into the rock and dripped into the cave below thousands of years ago.</p>
<p>These rock formations attest to times in the past when this region was considerably wetter. The caves in Libya – and in Tunisia and Egypt too – form these stalagmites when the global climate is warm. </p>
<p>These bygone warm periods are not quite the same as the warm periods IPCC forecasts suggest modern climate change will usher in. But the way a hot world, a relatively ice-free Europe and North America and a wet northern Africa have regularly coincided in the past is striking. Striking and difficult to understand.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pointed rocks hanging from a cave ceiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stalagmites formed in the distant past contain clues about the ancient climate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/stalactites-stalagmites-large-underground-cave-beredine-1993995323">InFocus.ee/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>That’s because the experiments that suggest medicanes will become less frequent as the climate warms belong to a pattern described by IPCC climate assessments, in which wet parts of the world are expected to get wetter and dry parts drier. So it is hard to understand why stalagmites tell us warmer periods in the past involved wetter conditions across the northern margin of the Sahara – one of the driest regions on Earth. </p>
<p>Fortunately, scientists can learn more from the way stalagmites sometimes grow imperfectly, leaving tiny blobs of water trapped between the crystals.</p>
<p>The stalagmite we recovered from <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-showing-the-locations-of-1-2-Susah-Cave-in-northern-Libya-and-nearby-site-Haua_fig1_309689349">Susah Cave</a> on the outskirts of Libya’s Susah city, which was severely damaged in the storm, had quite a lot of water in it from wet periods dating to 70,000 to 30,000 years ago. The oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in this water are suggestive of rain drawn from the Mediterranean. This could indicate more medicanes were hitting the Libyan coast then. </p>
<p>Our finding that more rain was falling above Susah Cave during warm periods suggests we should get more storms hitting eastern Libya as the climate warms. This is not quite what the IPCC forecasts, with their prediction of fewer but larger storms, show. </p>
<p>But storm strength is measured in wind speed, not rainfall. The caves could well be recording an important detail of past storminess which we’re not yet able to forecast. </p>
<p>Are stalagmites warning us that North Africa must prepare for future medicanes shifting further east? <a href="https://hosting.northumbria.ac.uk/greensahara/">Our ongoing research</a> aims to answer that question. </p>
<p>The pattern of ancient desert margins receiving more rain during warm periods despite the “dry gets drier” pattern of global climate models is not unique to northern Africa but found around the world. Over millions of years, globally warm periods almost always correspond with smaller deserts in Africa, Arabia, Asia and Australia. </p>
<p>This “dryland climate paradox” is important to unravel. Understanding the differences between climate models and studies of ancient rain will be key to navigating the future as safely as possible.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Rogerson receives funding from the UKRI Natural Environmental Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Belkasem Alkaryani and Mahjoor Lone do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate models suggest North Africa will get drier in future. But its caves tell a different story.Mike Rogerson, Senior Lecturer in Earth System Science, Northumbria University, NewcastleBelkasem Alkaryani, Lecturer in Geology, University of TobrukMahjoor Lone, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Palaeoclimatology, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2134552023-09-20T18:00:02Z2023-09-20T18:00:02ZWildfire risk is soaring for low-income, elderly and other vulnerable populations in California, Washington and Oregon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548882/original/file-20230918-25-4fjeir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3000%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many of the people caught in the wildfire that swept through Paradise, Calif., in 2018 were older adults.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nancy-clements-stands-in-front-of-her-home-that-survived-news-photo/1060370226?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As wildfires <a href="https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn">burn across the Western U.S.</a>, the people in harm’s way are increasingly those least able to protect their homes from fire risks, evacuate safely or recover after a fire.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh4615">new study</a>, we and a team of fellow <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">wildfire</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=S1J4kAoAAAAJ&hl=en">scientists</a> examined who lived within the perimeters of wildfires over the past two decades in Washington, Oregon and California – home to about 90% of Americans in the U.S. West exposed to wildfires over that period.</p>
<p>Overall, nearly half a million people in California, Oregon and Washington were exposed to wildfires at some point during the past 22 years. Alarmingly, about half the people exposed to wildfires in Washington and Oregon were considered socially vulnerable.</p>
<p>While the number of people exposed to fire rose overall, the number of socially vulnerable people exposed more than tripled between the first and second decades.</p>
<h2>How social vulnerability affects fire risk</h2>
<p>A variety of factors shape <a href="http://ece.uprm.edu/%7Epol/pdf/cutter1.pdf">social vulnerability</a>, including wealth, race, age, disability and fluency in the local language.</p>
<p>These factors can make it harder to take steps to protect homes from wildfire damage, evacuate safely and recover after a disaster. For example, low-income residents often can’t afford adequate insurance coverage that could help them rebuild their homes after a fire. And residents who don’t speak English may not hear about evacuation orders or know how to get assistance after a disaster.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A main points off camera as sprinklers run, leaving wet ground in front of a row of mobile homes. The neighborhood is up against thick pine forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Residents at a mobile home community in South Lake Tahoe, Calif., set up sprinklers to try to defend their homes against the Caldor Fire in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/1b8cc92909294173a05adb7e5602ffae?ext=true">AP Photo/Sam Metz</a></span>
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<h2>Older adults face rising fire exposure</h2>
<p>We found that older adults in particular were disproportionately exposed to wildfires in all three states.</p>
<p>Physical difficulties and cognitive decline can hamper older adults’ ability to keep their properties clear of flammable materials, such as dry shrubs and grasses, and can slow their ability to evacuate in an emergency. The fire that destroyed the town of Paradise, California, in 2018 was a tragic example. Of the 85 victims, 68 were 65 years of age or older.</p>
<p>Poverty was another important factor in the exposure of people with high vulnerability to wildfires in Oregon and Washington. </p>
<p>The reasons that socially vulnerable people were increasingly exposed to wildfires varied by state.</p>
<p>In California, the rise was in large part due to socially vulnerable people moving into wildfire-affected areas, possibly in search of more affordable housing, among other factors.</p>
<p>In Oregon and Washington, however, wildfires have increasingly encroached on existing vulnerable communities over the past decade, mainly in rural areas. This is predominantly due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">increasing trends of intense, destructive fires</a>.</p>
<p>Nearly 17,000 people living within the perimeter of wildfires in Oregon and Washington over the past decade had high social vulnerability, based on <a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/index.html">data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a>. A smaller percentage of California’s exposed population from 2011-2021 was considered to have high social vulnerability, 11%, but that was still 26,100 people.</p>
<h2>Secondary impacts of wildfires</h2>
<p>Our definition of exposure to wildfire considered only those people who directly lived within a wildfire perimeter.</p>
<p>If you take into account secondary exposures – those living close to wildfire perimeters and likely experiencing evacuation, trauma and poor air quality – the number of people affected is many times larger.</p>
<p>Importantly, other hazards related to wildfires reach still more high-vulnerability communities. <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">Wildfire smoke</a>, for example, has frequently filled large metropolitan areas with unhealthy air in recent years, disproportionately affecting people who work outdoors and other vulnerable populations.</p>
<h2>Policy changes that can help</h2>
<p>To prepare and respond as wildfire <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01163-z">risk rises in a warming world</a>, knowledge of the local population’s social vulnerabilities is necessary, along with targeted community-based strategies.</p>
<p>For example, the exposure of populations with limited English-language skills highlights the need for disaster warnings and response resources in multiple languages. </p>
<p>While the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/fire/grants">federal government increased its investment</a> for reducing wildfire threats to at-risk communities, including tribes, funding availability does not currently meet the demand.</p>
<p>Increasing exposure of certain populations, such as those living in nursing homes, requires significant investment to plan for and ensure proper and timely responses. When a wildfire in August 2023 burned more than 200 homes <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2023/aug/28/we-lost-everything-we-owned-gray-fire-destroys-loc/">near Medical Lake, Washington</a>, southwest of Spokane, it <a href="https://www.dshs.wa.gov/ffa/gray-fire-emergency-updates-august-2023">came close to</a> a state-operated psychiatric hospital and a residential home for people with intellectual disabilities.</p>
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<img alt="Hospital workers push patients in wheelchairs outside the hospital during the evacuation. A dog sits on one woman's lap." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feather River Hospital in Paradise, Calif., evacuated its patients ahead of the 2018 wildfire. The building was damaged by the fire and never reopened.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hospital-workers-and-first-responders-evacuate-patients-news-photo/1059463210">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Finally, including social vulnerability when studying future wildfire trends is important to shape community responses and policies. </p>
<p>Many national disaster prevention programs skew funding toward wealthier communities because they use cost-benefit analyses to direct <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/688786177/how-federal-disaster-money-favors-the-rich#">resources to areas with the greatest potential losses</a>. But while wealthy residents may lose more in dollar value, low-income residents typically lose a larger percentage of their assets and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1792">have a harder time recovering</a>. With the rising percentage of people with high social vulnerability at risk of wildfires, governments may need to rethink those methods and <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-fema-can-prioritize-equity-in-disaster-recovery-assistance/">lower the barriers for aid</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Abatzoglou receives funding from the National Science Foundation, US Department of Food and Agriculture, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration and the Joint Fire Science Program. </span></em></p>Alarmingly, about half the people exposed to wildfires in Washington and Oregon were those least able to afford to protect their homes, evacuate safely and recover.Mojtaba Sadegh, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityJohn Abatzoglou, Professor of Engineering, University of California, MercedLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2121742023-09-18T12:20:35Z2023-09-18T12:20:35ZKeeping your cool in a warming world: 8 steps to help manage eco-anxiety<p>In a world facing <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">environmental challenges</a> <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/#">unprecedented in human history</a>, it’s no surprise that eco-anxiety – a pervasive worry about the current and<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/586541/the-uninhabitable-earth-by-david-wallace-wells/"> future state of our planet</a> – has become an <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/oxford-reveals-word-of-the-year-2019-heres-why-we-should-be-very-very-concerned/articleshow/72332446.cms?from=mdr">increasingly prevalent</a> <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-anxiety-and-mental-illness/">mental health issue.</a></p>
<p>As people witness the devastating <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">impacts of climate change</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/climate/trees-tropical-forests-deforestation.html">deforestation</a> and loss of <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/biodiversity">biodiversity</a>, it’s only natural to feel <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/health/eco-anxiety-harmful-for-health-wellness/index.html">overwhelmed and disheartened</a>. I happen to live in Phoenix, Arizona, a “<a href="https://www.azcentral.com/restricted/?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fopinion%2Fop-ed%2Fphilboas%2F2023%2F07%2F14%2Fphoenix-summer-heat-intense-not-apocalypse%2F70414067007%2F">heat apocalypse</a>” city with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/01/phoenix-water-shortage-population-growth/">dwindling water supplies</a>, so I have some skin in the game.</p>
<p>But amid doom-and-gloom predictions, there is hope. As a therapist and clinical social work professor, I have seen firsthand how paralyzing <a href="https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/915145">eco-anxiety</a> can be, and I’m dedicated to finding solutions. Here are a few evidence-based tips to tackle your climate woes. </p>
<h2>What is eco-anxiety?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.socialworktoday.com/archive/Spring23p10.shtml">Eco-anxiety</a> is a broad term that encompasses dread about environmental issues like pollution and disposal of toxic waste, as well as climate-specific fears, such as <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/climate-change-and-extreme-weather">increasing rates of extreme weather events</a> and <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html">sea-level rise</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19042461">Common symptoms</a> of eco-anxiety include worry about future generations, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101434">trouble sleeping or concentrating</a>, feelings of frustration and a sense of helplessness. These feelings can range from mild and fleeting concerns to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12197836">deep despair</a>, panic attacks and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867411433951">obsessive-compulsive behaviors</a>.</p>
<p>Sound like you or someone you know? There are a number of tools that can help people cope with these feelings, summed up with the acronym UPSTREAM.</p>
<h2>Understanding and self-compassion</h2>
<p>Be kind to yourself and know that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00278-3">you are not alone in these feelings</a>.</p>
<p>Caring about the world you live in does not make you a “crazy” alarmist. In fact, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-is-eco-anxiety-climate-change_uk_5d7f7c1ce4b03b5fc886cc16">growing numbers</a> of people across the globe feel the same way, with <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-beliefs-attitudes-spring-2023/toc/2/">two-thirds of Americans reporting</a> being at least somewhat worried about climate change in recent polls. </p>
<p>It makes sense that people would feel nervous when <a href="https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html">basic needs</a> like safety and shelter are threatened. Give yourself grace, because <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/women-s-mental-health-matters/201507/6-ways-stop-mentally-beating-yourself">beating yourself up</a> for these very valid feelings will only make you feel worse. </p>
<p><iframe id="kC3Mu" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kC3Mu/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Participate in the solution</h2>
<p>It can be hard to feel empowered when environmental harms are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074">taking a toll on your mental health</a>, but the escalating global crisis still demands urgent attention. Instead of burying your head in the sand, use that mental discomfort as a catalyst for action.</p>
<p>Individual efforts to <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/12/27/35-ways-reduce-carbon-footprint/">reduce your carbon footprint</a> matter. <a href="https://youchangeearth.org/guides/join-a-climate-movement/">Joining larger movements</a> has the potential for even move significant impacts, as well as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-022-02735-6">potential to buffer anxiety</a>, research shows. Volunteer your own unique passions, talents and skills to advocate for systemic changes that will benefit the planet and humanity. </p>
<p>When you feel anxious, use that energy as fuel for the fight. Harnessing eco-anxiety in this way can <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-is-eco-anxiety-climate-change_uk_5d7f7c1ce4b03b5fc886cc16">reduce your sense of powerlessness</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of young people plant trees along a street in Los Angeles. One is wearing an LA Conservation Corps T-shirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local groups can take action in many ways, including helping to plant trees, educating residents or pressuring lawmakers to take action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tree-planting-in-highland-park-plans-to-plant-100-arbutus-news-photo/129369806">Citizen of the Planet/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Self-talk</h2>
<p>The weight of the climate crisis is heavy enough as it is – don’t let your brain make you feel even worse.</p>
<p>When it comes to thinking about climate change, a realistic mindset puts us in a “just right” psychological Goldilocks zone. Don’t <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/terrifying-parallels-between-twin-threats-of-climate-change-and-nuclear-ruin/2017/10/27/bc6058d2-af74-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html">numb your psychic wounds</a>, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00048670701881603">don’t over-catastrophize</a>.</p>
<p>As a therapist, I often help clients identify and reframe <a href="https://www.therapistaid.com/worksheets/cognitive-distortions">unhelpful thinking patterns</a>. For example, while it is true that there are many environmental problems to grapple with, there is <a href="https://psychcentral.com/lib/cognitive-distortions-negative-thinking#discounting">also positive</a> news, so don’t discount it. Recognize and celebrate victories big and small.</p>
<h2>Trauma: Process it so you can heal</h2>
<p>The climate crisis has been conceptualized as a <a href="https://istss.org/public-resources/istss-briefing-papers/briefing-paper-global-climate-change-and-trauma">collective trauma</a>, and many individuals are struggling with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/arctic-solastalgia-climate-crisis-inuit-indigenous">eco-grief</a> from climate impacts that have already happened. Processing past trauma from events like weather disasters is a crucial step in enhancing your ability to cope with new experiences. </p>
<p>Even people who have <a href="https://theconversation.com/disaster-news-on-tv-and-social-media-can-trigger-post-traumatic-stress-in-kids-thousands-of-miles-away-heres-why-some-are-more-vulnerable-173627">not yet experienced</a> significant climate impacts directly may have <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781351025225-25/climate-trauma-stef-craps">signs of pre-traumatic stress</a>, a clinical term for the distress experienced in anticipation of a high-stress situation. A licensed mental health professional can help you process these emotions. </p>
<h2>Reduce isolation</h2>
<p>It’s no secret that having a strong social support network is a <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-secret-to-happiness-heres-some-advice-from-the-longest-running-study-on-happiness-2017100512543">key ingredient for happiness</a>. Surrounding yourself with compassionate, like-minded friends is also key to sustained efforts in doing your part to make a difference. </p>
<p>Consider joining or starting a <a href="https://www.climateandmind.org/climate-cafe">Climate Cafe</a> or similar group to talk about climate concerns. Visit a <a href="https://www.goodgriefnetwork.org/10steps/">10-step climate grief meeting</a>. Join a local environmental organization. Or simply call up a friend when you need a listening ear.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman holds a trash bag and directs others in a lakeshore clean up effort." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Community cleanup days can help reduce isolation and help you feel involved in making the world a better place.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-volunteer-coordinator-speaks-to-the-group-royalty-free-image/1401403313">Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ecotherapy</h2>
<p>Get outdoors and enjoy nature.</p>
<p>Go for a quiet walk in the woods and observe nature all around you – it’s a Japanese practice for relaxation known as <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/forest-bathing-nature-walk-health">forest bathing</a>. Spend time <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/ecotherapy#techniques">gardening</a>. <a href="https://www.goodtherapy.org/learn-about-therapy/types/econature-therapy">Exercise outdoors</a> or otherwise spend time outdoors in a place that is relaxing and restorative for you.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gardening can relax the mind and put you in touch with nature. If you don’t have a yard, find a community garden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-volunteers-working-in-community-garden-royalty-free-image/1202939486">Compassionate Eye Foundation/Natasha Alipour Faridani via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Acts of self-care</h2>
<p>Self-care is paramount when it comes to managing the emotional toll of eco-anxiety.</p>
<p>Engaging in <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/shyness-is-nice/201403/seven-types-of-self-care-activities-for-coping-with-stress">self-care practices</a>, such as getting adequate sleep, eating healthy and having fun, helps us maintain a sense of balance in the face of overwhelming environmental concerns.</p>
<p>Remember what they teach you on airplanes – you should always put on your own oxygen mask before helping other passengers. Likewise, when we come from a place of wellness, we are <a href="https://www.climaterealitydfw.org/post/discouraged-frustrated-fearful-self-care-may-be-the-answer-to-burnout">better equipped to handle the stresses of eco-anxiety</a> and make a difference in this area.</p>
<h2>Mindfulness</h2>
<p>Because eco-grief is focused on the past and eco-anxiety is future-oriented, reconnecting to the present moment is a powerful way to combat both.</p>
<p>By cultivating <a href="https://www.mindful.org/jon-kabat-zinn-defining-mindfulness/">mindfulness</a> – a nonjudgmental awareness of the present moment – people can become more attuned to their thoughts, feelings and bodily sensations in response to eco-anxiety triggers. This heightened self-awareness helps people to acknowledge worries without becoming consumed by them.</p>
<p>Mindfulness practices, such as <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/23718805/beginner-guide-meditation-mindfulness-how-to-meditate">meditation </a>and <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/breath-meditation-a-great-way-to-relieve-stress">deep breathing</a>, provide a <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/meditation/in-depth/meditation/art-20045858">calming and grounding effect,</a> helping to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/acm.2008.0495">reduce stress</a> and alleviate feelings of helplessness. Moreover, mindfulness fosters a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/eco.2018.0061">deeper connection to nature </a>and an appreciation for the present moment, which can counteract the sense of despair associated with future environmental uncertainties.</p>
<p>In the face of eco-anxiety, these strategies can build resilience, reminding everyone that they have the power to shape a more sustainable and hopeful future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Magruder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A therapist shares advice for harnessing your stress over climate change and other environmental harms and putting it to work.Karen Magruder, Assistant Professor of Practice in Social Work, University of Texas at ArlingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136672023-09-15T14:47:42Z2023-09-15T14:47:42ZLibya flood disaster: scale of the catastrophe must bring the two warring factions together<p>A century ago, the coastal city of Derna was well known for picture-perfect beaches, palm trees and whitewashed villas mainly inhabited by Libya’s Italian colonial occupiers. Today, in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66799518">aftermath of Storm Daniel</a>, which brought 400mm of rain to the region, overwhelming two dams and sweeping millions of tons of water across the city, much of Derna has been flooded. Entire suburbs are reported to have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/12/libya-floods-death-toll-dams-burst">washed into the sea</a> by the tsunami-like wave that barrelled down the normally dry river Wadi Dern through the heart of the city.</p>
<p>The death toll from the catastrophe <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/libya-flooding-death-toll-storm-daniel/story?id=103214362#:%7E:text=The%20Libyan%20Red%20Crescent%20said,another%2010%2C100%20were%20reported%20missing.">is estimated at more than 11,000</a> with another 10,000 missing and feared dead. Countless more people – perhaps one-third of Derna’s inhabitants, have been left homeless.</p>
<p>Derna has been a <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libya-floods-derna-revolutionary-city-ruined-once-more">centre of resistance</a> to successive Libyan regimes. The former Libyan dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, regarded the city with distrust and deprived it of basic resources and infrastructure. On the eve of Gaddafi’s overthrow by Nato-backed forces in 2011, the Libyan government described Derna as a “hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism”.</p>
<p>In the vacuum left by Gaddafi’s overthrow and the civil war that followed, Derna became a centre for jihadis who pledged their allegiance to Islamic State in 2014. From 2015 to 2018 the <a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/56084/PolicyBrief_2018_09(EN).pdf?sequence=1">city was besieged</a> by Libya’s eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA).</p>
<p>As a result, the city has suffered from decades of neglect and much of its infrastructure dates back to Italian occupation of the country in the early 20th century. The city has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66797307">no proper hospital and no schools</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1702322193760477557"}"></div></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230913-libya-s-deadly-dam-collapse-was-decades-in-the-making">Wadi Derna dams</a> that collapsed with such fatal consequences were built in the mid 1970s by a Yugoslav company as part of a project to provide irrigation for the region and drinking water for Derna and other local communities. There are two dams: the biggest, Derna, is 75 metres in height and has a capacity of 18 million cubic meters of water. Mansour is 45 metres and holds 1.5 million cubic metres.</p>
<p>A research paper <a href="https://sebhau.edu.ly/journal/jopas/article/view/2137">published in November 2022</a> said the two were at risk of collapse. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, Derna’s deputy mayor admitted the dams <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-libyas-derna-not-built-to-withstand-storm-deputy-mayor">had not been maintained</a> since 2002. </p>
<h2>Divided country</h2>
<p>The situation in Libya is exacerbated by the fact that in the civil war that followed the fall of Gaddafi, the country has essentially become split in half. The western region is governed from Tripoli by prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/02/libyas-interim-pm-elected-through-bribery-un-inquiry-says">Abdul Hamid Dbeibah</a> and his UN-approved <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war">Government of National Accord</a>, which took power in 2015 with the promise of holding national elections which have yet to be called.</p>
<p>The east is <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war">administered from Tobruk by a National Assembly</a>, established in 2014 and headed by prime minister Osama Hamad. But the real power lies with Haftar, the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA). Despite not being internationally recognised, the east (which is in reality the majority of Libyan territory, including vast desert areas in the south) has the lion’s share of Libya’s oil wealth. </p>
<p>In 2020, Haftar overplayed his hand in an <a href="https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2019/whats-happening-in-libya-explainer/index.html">unsuccessful attempt to seize Tripoli</a>. This led to a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076012">UN-brokered ceasefire</a> and the current uneasy de facto division of power between east and west in Libya.</p>
<p>Even before the devastation of Storm Daniel, Libya was in the throes of a humanitarian crisis. In 2021, the UN estimated that more than <a href="https://libyaupdate.com/un-over-800000-people-need-of-humanitarian-aid-in-libya/">800,000 Libyans</a> were in need of aid after two decades of fighting and unrest and little in the way of reconstruction. </p>
<p>International efforts have hitherto largely depended on Tripoli’s approval to allow aid to reach the east. And even once that is given, the task is made more difficult by the fact that bridges and roads connecting the two parts of the country have been badly damaged in the civil war. </p>
<h2>An opportunity to work together?</h2>
<p>One can only hope that the scale of this tragedy becomes a catalyst for a more functional working relationship between the two regions and the international community. There have been tentative signs that this might be the case. The two governments have demonstrated a willingness to cooperate in recent days and the Dbeibah government in Tripoli has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-storm-aid-idAFS8N3A5025">sent a flight</a> with medical supplies and personnel to the disaster zone.</p>
<p>Despite the historic level of animosity between east and west, there have been precedents where the rival have been forced to cooperate on shared interests. Earlier this year, the rival administrations agreed to form a committee to manage the <a href="https://thearabweekly.com/libyan-rivals-agree-work-together-sharing-oil-revenues">distribution of oil revenues</a> which form the backbone of Libya’s economy. </p>
<p>International aid is beginning to reach the disaster zone. Though the international community does not officially recognise Haftar-led regime, it will inevitably be the primary player in managing and mitigating the effects of this crisis. </p>
<p>Countries that want to help the Libyan citizens most affected will have to work with the Haftar-backed leadership. It is hoped this international engagement could thereby play an important role in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libyans-come-together-flood-aid-effort-despite-conflict-2023-09-14/">facilitating a rapprochement</a> between the two parts of the country.</p>
<p>Both Libya’s governments have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/libya-call-for-inquiry-fury-death-toll-catastrophic-floods">called for an inquiry</a> into the disaster. The chairman of the Presidential Council, <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2167301/world">Mohamed al-Menfi</a>, based in Tobruk, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/libya-call-for-inquiry-fury-death-toll-catastrophic-floods#:%7E:text=Menfi%20said%20he%20wanted%20the,collapse%20of%20the%20city's%20dams%E2%80%9D.">said the inquiry</a> should “hold accountable everyone who made a mistake or neglected by abstaining or taking actions that resulted in the collapse of the city’s dams”. </p>
<p>Libya’s attorney general, <a href="https://africanarguments.org/2023/03/libyas-captured-prosecutor/">Al-Siddiq Al-Sour</a>, who is based in Tripoli but officially has jurisdiction over the whole country, called for an investigation into allegations local officials imposed a curfew on the night Storm Daniel struck.</p>
<p>But before any blame is apportioned, the rescue operation must be given priority by both governments, who will need to take a proactive, pragmatic and principled attitude towards working together in the interests of the whole country. Far-fetched as this may seem, it could be a valuable learning experience for both sides.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dina Rezk receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p>There are signs that the two rival governments are trying to work together in the disaster relief effort.Dina Rezk, Lecturer in Middle Eastern History, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136692023-09-15T14:04:38Z2023-09-15T14:04:38ZLibya floods: why cash is the best way to help get humanitarian aid to people affected by disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548542/original/file-20230915-27-9t1f7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=314%2C134%2C5308%2C3826&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mature-man-working-volunteer-community-center-2147202215">Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The heavy rainfall that hit <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-66787997">Libya during Storm Daniel</a> caused two dams and four bridges to collapse in the coastal city of Derna, submerging most of the city in floodwater and claiming thousands of lives. </p>
<p>As you watch the disturbing scenes of this disaster on the news, you might wonder about the best way to help. Sending that blanket in the closet you have never used or those painkillers in the cabinet you overbought last time you had a headache might seem helpful. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://jhumanitarianaction.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41018-016-0015-7">research suggests otherwise</a>. Such “in-kind donations” (physical items such as food, clothing, household items and medicine) can actually place a heavy burden on the humanitarian aid network.</p>
<p>If items are delivered to disaster areas in bulk, humanitarian organisations can struggle to receive, sort and send them to people in need quickly. Any accumulation can clog critical airports and warehouses. </p>
<p>This is known as “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1366554522001272?via%3Dihub">material convergence</a>”. Humanitarian organisations can become overwhelmed with unsolicited donations. </p>
<p>This can <a href="https://www.magonlinelibrary.com/doi/abs/10.12968/bjhc.2022.0091">range from</a> medicine and food (sometimes at or near expiry), to equipment that’s just not compatible with the country’s systems – whether that’s because of voltage differences or product labels written in a different language.</p>
<p>To avoid such backlogs, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10479-014-1623-5">research shows</a> donating money in cash or via bank transfer to <a href="https://www.icrc.org/en">verified</a> international <a href="https://crisisrelief.un.org/donate">humanitarian</a> organisations is the most helpful and efficient response to humanitarian crises. Within the past decade, some organisations have even launched <a href="https://www.wfp.org/cash-transfers">successful cash and voucher assistance programmes</a> to pass this money on to people in dire need. </p>
<p>Giving cash rather than in-kind donations also respects the dignity of beneficiaries, and prevents duplication and delivery of unneeded aid. Also, perhaps most importantly, it helps to support a local economy that might be crippled by crisis. </p>
<p>Cash-based interventions safeguard people’s purchasing power and help them cover urgent needs during crises, according to <a href="https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000150584/download/">the Word Food Programme (WFP)</a>. This isn’t as simple with in-kind donations.</p>
<h2>Delivering humanitarian aid to Derna</h2>
<p>The recent flooding in Libya has left <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66807956">the city of Derna</a> in dire need of such support for its people and its local economy. But even before the floods, the area has been crippled by civil conflict for more than a decade. </p>
<p>Libya is divided into zones ruled by different militias and two governments on the east and west of the country. There is constant fighting between the various factions. </p>
<p>The country already suffers from weak economic growth. Its GDP per capita <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/overview">dropped by 50%</a> between 2011 and 2020 due to this conflict, despite Libya being among the top 10 global sources of proven oil and natural gas reserves.</p>
<p>Storm Daniel had <a href="https://apnews.com/article/turkey-greece-bulgaria-extreme-weather-d2aaa1701dbc7a3722a85aee04a977ac">already hit</a> Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey before it was <a href="https://www.climatecentre.org/11608/the-storm-daniel-medicane-turns-on-libya/#:%7E:text=The%20danger%20Storm%20Daniel%20posed,forecaster%20Matt%20Taylor%20said%20then.">forecast</a> to cause heavy rainfalls in Libya. But the country’s fragile economic and political environment and lack of <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/north-africa/libya/libya-economic-outlook">national climate change strategy</a> left it far from prepared for this disaster. </p>
<p>Worse, Derna is a neglected city in eastern Libya controlled by a rival administration to the western government. The region’s government does not allow free access of humanitarian organisations to Derna so <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/13/middleeast/libya-flood-political-rift-mime-intl/index.html">it’s unclear</a> if much-needed aid is reaching the right people and being distributed equally. But this political status has also created other complications for the current situation.</p>
<p>The city’s two now-collapsed dams <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-libyas-derna-not-built-to-withstand-storm-deputy-mayor?traffic_source=KeepReading">have not been maintained</a> for more than two decades, despite erosion concerns. Also, a functional meteorological service could have saved thousands of lives by issuing an early evacuation warning, according to <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/libya-floods-weather-deaths-warning-b2411558.html">the head of World Meteorological Organization (WMO)</a>.</p>
<p>After years of conflict, reports say <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-libyas-derna-not-built-to-withstand-storm-deputy-mayor">the only hospital</a> serving Derna’s 100,000 residents was a five-bedroom villa. Road and telecommunication infrastructure has also been weakened, while new road renovation and construction projects <a href="https://dlca.logcluster.org/libya-23-libya-road-network">have been suspended</a> due to security concerns. The port of Derna <a href="https://dlca.logcluster.org/213-libya-port-derna">was also closed due to security issues</a> for about three years until 2021, affected the local economy.</p>
<h2>The compounding effect of concurrent disasters</h2>
<p>When disasters happen in a setting already hit by other crises, there is a compounding effect. This means a disaster can have a higher detrimental impact on the livelihood of the people and the local economy. Responding to concurrent disasters is more challenging and can require more resources from humanitarian organisations.</p>
<p>The likes of the International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC) are no strangers to delivering humanitarian aid to remote or troubled areas, of course. Their supply chains are designed in a fundamentally different way from <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJOPM-04-2016-0202">commercial supply chains</a>. They are typically decentralised to allow swift decision making and the mobilisation of resources as required. </p>
<p>The Red Cross and other humanitarian organisations such as WFP, which runs the <a href="https://unhrd.org/">UN Humanitarian Response Depot</a> also keep essential items “prepositioned” in strategic locations so they can be dispatched to disaster areas <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038012119303489">as a first emergency response</a>. </p>
<p>The compounding effect of prolonged civil conflict makes delivering humanitarian aid challenging, but climate change <a href="https://www.icrcnewsroom.org/story/en/1921/icrc-report-climate-change-and-conflict-are-a-cruel-combo-that-stalk-the-world-s-most-vulnerable?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&linkId=100000013447880">is adding another layer of complexity to such situations</a>. Of the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change, most are dealing with armed conflict. </p>
<p>By 2050, humanitarian organisations will need to deliver aid to <a href="https://www.icrcnewsroom.org/story/en/1921/icrc-report-climate-change-and-conflict-are-a-cruel-combo-that-stalk-the-world-s-most-vulnerable?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&linkId=100000013447880">200 million people</a> – almost double current needs. Much of this aid will go to people hit by concurrent disasters, making delivery challenging, slow and arduous. </p>
<p>So, when donating in the wake of a disaster, consider giving cash to a reputable aid organisation. Research shows it has the best chance of getting to the heart of the crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hossein Zarei does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even before Storm Daniel hit, Derna in Libya was in dire need of help. But it’s not always clear how best to help humanitarian organisations to deliver aid most effectively.Hossein Zarei, Lecturer in Business Strategy, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.