tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/non-hispanic-white-men-28243/articlesnon-Hispanic white men – The Conversation2019-01-07T11:42:46Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1078722019-01-07T11:42:46Z2019-01-07T11:42:46ZWhite right? How demographics is changing US politics<p>When Donald Trump was campaigning to become the U.S. president, much of the discussion about his growing popularity focused on so-called “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/08/angry-white-men-love-donald-trump">angry white males</a>,” who had been struggling through years of declining economic opportunities. Their frustration led some of them to adopt and espouse <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/18/us/ordinary-white-supremacists/index.html">white supremacist ideology</a>.</p>
<p>In many media portrayals, these men, their anger and their sometimes extreme views on how to return to economic and political relevance were treated as a new phenomenon. </p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/css/about/monica-duffy-toft/">scholar of demography and civil war</a>, I can say definitively that none of this is actually new. Declining opportunities for white males and racist ideology have long been features of U.S. politics, from at least the 1930s until now. </p>
<p>So, the real question is, why are we seeing an upsurge of white nativism among white males now – a nativism which combines anger over lost status with a historically bankrupt white supremacist ideology?</p>
<h2>Lagging whites, growing minorities</h2>
<p>According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s data, all racial and ethnic minorities are growing faster than whites. Interestingly, one of the fastest growing groups in this country is “mixed race” (full disclosure: my children are such, being both Mexican- and Irish-American). </p>
<p><iframe id="qG0iI" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qG0iI/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Still, at 198 million, non-Hispanic whites remained the largest group of Americans in 2014; followed by Hispanics at 55.4 million, and blacks or African-Americans at 42 million. Those who identified with two or more races <a href="https://www.census.gov//content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf">stood at just under 8 million</a>. </p>
<p>The Census Bureau projects the crossover point at which the non-Hispanic white population will no longer be a majority will occur in 2044. In fact, no one group will comprise a majority. We will become a plural nation of different ethnic and racial groups.</p>
<h2>Demography and democracy</h2>
<p>That powerful shift in the makeup of the U.S. population has created ideal conditions for a political backlash against people of color, including Hispanics, blacks, Asians and especially immigrants of color. </p>
<p>One prominent example: President Trump’s lament that the U.S. was being <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/368576-trump-rips-protections-for-immigrants-from-shithole-countries-in">overwhelmed by immigrants from “s-hole countries,”</a> rather than from places like Norway. </p>
<p>The backlash also extends to the political leaders who support minorities’ right to be accepted and respected as Americans.</p>
<p>These communities of color remain in the minority. But already in some states, white voters as distinct from all whites are in the minority, and nationally, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/07/01/484325664/babies-of-color-are-now-the-majority-census-says">whites are unlikely to remain in the majority for long</a>. </p>
<p>In California, for example, <a href="https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article25940218.html">non-white populations now make up 62 percent of the population</a>, with Hispanic and white populations at near parity at 38 percent each. </p>
<p>Texas, New Mexico and Arizona are among three southern states where the <a href="https://statisticalatlas.com/state/California/Race-and-Ethnicity">gap between Hispanic minorities and white majorities is closing</a>. Like Florida, these are also states with difficult-to-seal borders and with well-established immigrant communities.</p>
<h2>Politics and population shifts</h2>
<p>For two decades, I have been studying how population shifts across nation-states have led to their collapse. In some cases, those collapses have been violent, such as in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14649284">Lebanon in the 1970s</a> and <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union">the Soviet Union</a> in the 1990s. </p>
<p>Now, demographic dynamics we previously witnessed in “other” or “developing” states are happening in the U.S.</p>
<p>In places where white people have been a demographic majority, white nativism – characterized by the longing for a period when whites were dominant political and economically – arises when some of the majority white population fears for the loss of its stature relative to non-white populations. And in the U.S., <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/07/01/484325664/babies-of-color-are-now-the-majority-census-says">non-whites have higher birth rates and make up the bulk of new immigrants</a>. </p>
<p>As populations shift in democracies, the key question is which group challenges these changes, when – and how? Is it the expanding minority or the declining majority? Is it a combination of fear and desire for change emanating from both the declining majority and rising minority?</p>
<h2>Fighting for lost dominance</h2>
<p>My research reveals that it is the declining majority that tends to act aggressively, often imagining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620701449025">it must preempt a rising minority</a>. Simply put, declining majorities don’t want to yield their status or hegemony.</p>
<p>This turns demographic shifts into a struggle about power and dominance, with elements of the majority refusing to cede ground to emergent new pluralities and majorities that might displace them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Trump’s travel ban targeted Muslims.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2017-02-01/pdf/2017-02281.pdf">Government Publishing Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The result, historically, follows a general pattern: The declining majority resorts to various forms of apartheid, including changes to voting laws, voter suppression and new restrictions on immigrants, and requirements for citizenship. </p>
<p>Examples include Israel’s successive moves to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/10/10/445343896/in-israel-a-new-battle-over-who-qualifies-as-jewish">tighten the definition of who is a Jew</a>; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html">Britain’s 2016 referendum on membership in the European Union</a> (for working-class Brits, the immigrants of “color” were Pakistanis and Poles); and the new <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2018/trump-travel-ban-supreme-court-decision-countries-map/">U.S. ban on immigrants from seven predominately Muslim countries</a>.</p>
<p>Only rarely do a declining majority’s efforts to maintain dominance escalate to violence or state collapse, as was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/26/world/end-of-the-soviet-union-the-soviet-state-born-of-a-dream-dies.html">the case with the Soviet Union</a>. </p>
<h2>From demographic to political decline</h2>
<p>Mirroring the decline in fortunes of the “angry white male” who supported President Trump is the declining fortunes of the Republican Party. </p>
<p>The current U.S. president leads a minority political party whose <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">membership has been in decline for over two decades</a>. </p>
<p>President Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html">lost the general election by over 3 million votes</a>. The number of U.S. citizens of voting age <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">who identify as Republicans</a> has dropped steadily since 1994, compared to those who identify as Democrat or Independent.</p>
<p>The GOP has managed its decline in exactly the same way a declining white majority population might have done: It has resorted to extreme gerrymandering, voter suppression, calls for limits on immigration, and now citizenship restrictions. </p>
<p>The president’s angry rhetoric has arguably been responsible for fomenting a rise in overt bigotry, and in rare but an increasing number of cases, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-the-united-states-right-wing-violence-is-on-the-rise/2018/11/25/61f7f24a-deb4-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html?utm_term=.b5b3a3abe07e">violence against non-white immigrants, and ethnic, religious, disabled and LGBTQ minorities</a>. In one documented case, a 56 year-old Trump supporter named <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/nyregion/cnn-cory-booker-pipe-bombs-sent.html">Cesar Sayoc mailed a series of bombs to “Trump critics.”</a> His van, in which he had apparently been living, was covered with often violent imagery directed against people of color and political opponents of President Trump, including a sticker featuring then-Representative Nancy Pelosi with rifle-scope crosshairs superimposed.</p>
<p>The partisan divide is further fueled by the conflict over whether non-white immigration is a threat to U.S. security and prosperity.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/02/26/key-facts-about-u-s-immigration-policies-and-proposed-changes/">Immigration to the U.S.</a> has been fairly constant since 1990. </p>
<p>What has changed is the number of refugees fleeing civil wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia and Syria <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/us-accepted-refugees-2018/">who are coming to the U.S.</a> According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, there are 65.6 million forcibly displaced people in the world – a population greater than that of the U.K. – of which about <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html">one-third, 25.4 million, are refugees</a>. </p>
<p>The numbers of refugees and asylum-seekers has been increasing since 2013. At the end of 2013, the U.S. hosted 348,005 people of concern – which includes refugees and asylum-seekers. By the end of 2017, that number rose to 929,850, with <a href="http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/overview#_ga=2.82367446.119990439.1544648438-1408415619.1544648438">asylum-seekers responsible for the significant increase</a>.</p>
<p>The research shows that immigrants are a net drain on national resources for the first few years they are here. But after those first years, the <a href="https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jan/23/donald-trump/does-immigration-policy-impose-300-billion-annuall/">costs and benefits of their participation balance out</a>.</p>
<h2>White nativism: Why now?</h2>
<p>Though economic opportunity – and specifically the decline in blue-collar jobs capable of supporting a family – affects the popularity of white nativism, it does not explain its timing. </p>
<p>The “why now” of white nativism is due to decades of demographic decline for white Americans combined with <a href="https://theconversation.com/fight-for-federal-right-to-education-takes-a-new-turn-108322">a serious decline in public education standards</a> that leads to unwarranted nostalgia and openness to conspiracy theories. </p>
<p>Add to that the charismatic leadership of Donald J. Trump, who attached white majority fears of status loss with criminalizing immigrants of color. That has stoked the flames of an already smoking fire.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Duffy Toft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the US, non-whites have higher birth rates and make up the bulk of new immigrants. As white people lose their demographic majority, some will resist the accompanying political changes.Monica Duffy Toft, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/670372016-10-21T01:46:42Z2016-10-21T01:46:42ZDonald Trump and the rise of white identity in politics<p>Many political commentators <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/06/donald_trump_is_a_serial_exploiter_of_prejudice.html">credit</a> Donald Trump’s rise to white voters’ antipathy toward racial and ethnic minorities. However, we believe this focus on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/06/racial-anxiety-is-a-huge-driver-of-support-for-donald-trump-two-new-studies-find/">racial resentment</a> obscures another important aspect of racial thinking.</p>
<p>In a study of white Americans’ attitudes and candidate preferences, we found that Trump’s success reflects the rise of “white identity politics” – an attempt to protect the collective interests of white voters via the ballot box. Whereas racial prejudice refers to animosity toward other racial groups, white identity reflects a sense of connection to fellow white Americans.</p>
<p>We’re not the first to tie Trump’s candidacy to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/03/how-political-science-helps-explain-the-rise-of-trump-the-role-of-white-identity-and-grievances/">white identity politics</a>. But our data provide some of the clearest evidence that ongoing demographic changes in the United States are increasing white racial identity. White identity, in turn, is pushing white Americans to support Trump.</p>
<h2>White identity</h2>
<p>When we talk about white identity, we’re not referring to the <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/08/26/491452721/the-history-of-the-alt-right">alt-right</a> fringe, the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/white-nationalist">white nationalist</a> movement or others who espouse racist beliefs. Rather, we’re talking about everyday white Americans who, perhaps for the first time, are racially conscious.</p>
<p>The concept of “garden variety” white racial identity <a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/knowleslab/wp-content/uploads/sites/670/2014/11/Deny-Distance-or-Dismantle.pdf">stands in contrast</a> to conventional wisdom. In the last three decades of <a href="http://www.temple.edu/tempress/titles/1338_reg.html">scholarship</a> on whiteness as a race, the prevailing view has been that most whites fail to notice their own whiteness. In a society dominated by white people, whiteness simply fades into the background. Just as fish fail to notice the water around them, whites are unlikely to think about how they are members of a distinct group.</p>
<p>Our research shows that the era of “white invisibility” is coming to a close. </p>
<p>Non-Hispanic whites are <a href="http://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-tps16.html">projected</a> to become a minority in the year 2044. This increasing diversity across the country is making whites’ own race <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/index.cfm?fa=buy.optionToBuy&id=1979-13208-001">harder</a> and <a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/knowleslab/wp-content/uploads/sites/670/2014/11/White-Selves.pdf">harder</a> to ignore. Political and social phenomena, from Barack Obama’s presidency to the Black Lives Matter movement, are making whiteness even more salient to white Americans.</p>
<h2>Trump and white identity politics</h2>
<p>As whites increasingly sense that their <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/trump-race-white-america-identity-crisis-214178">status</a> in society is <a href="http://news.stanford.edu/2016/05/09/perceived-threats-racial-status-drive-white-americans-support-tea-party-stanford-scholar-says/">falling</a>, white racial identity is becoming politicized. Trump’s promise to “make America great again” speaks to these anxieties by recalling a past in which white people dominated every aspect of politics and society. That’s why media outlets from <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/trump-to-transform-gop-into-white-identity-party.html">New York Magazine</a> to <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439048/trumps-nationalism-white-identity-politics-brand-name">The National Review</a> have dubbed Trump an “ethnonationalist” candidate.</p>
<p>Hillary Clinton <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/05/23/what-hillary-clintons-latest-slogan-were-stronger-together-really-says-about-her-candidacy/?utm_term=.90f3593e6b9a">counters</a> Trump’s exclusionary rhetoric with her message that all Americans are “Stronger Together.”</p>
<p>To test our ideas about Trump and white identity politics, we surveyed a nationally representative sample of about 1,700 white Americans. The survey covered racial identities, attitudes and political preferences. In examining the relationship between white identity and ethnic diversity, we chose to focus on an ethnic minority of particular salience in contemporary politics: Hispanics. More than any other group, Hispanics have been in the Trump campaign’s <a href="https://youtu.be/C6QEqoYgQxw">crosshairs</a>.</p>
<p>Do whites from heavily Hispanic neighborhoods show stronger white racial identity? To measure identity, we used a widely used <a href="https://www.rug.nl/staff/m.van.zomeren/leach_van_zomeren_et_al_2008.pdf">questionnaire</a>. On a five-point scale, participants rated their agreement with items such as “Being a white person is an important part of how I see myself” and “I feel solidarity with other white people.” As shown in the graph below, there is a positive relationship between exposure to Hispanics and white respondents’ sense of racial identity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">White identity is strongest in neighborhoods with a large Hispanic population.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And does white identity lead to support for Donald Trump? We examined the relationship between white identity and respondents’ likelihood of supporting Trump for the presidency versus Hillary Clinton or several Republican primary challengers. Consistent with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/03/how-political-science-helps-explain-the-rise-of-trump-the-role-of-white-identity-and-grievances/">others’ analyses</a>, white identity strongly predicts a preference for Trump.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Strong white identity predicts support for Donald Trump.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whites at the high end of the racial identity scale are more than four times as likely to support Trump than those at the low end of the scale. Perhaps that’s because whites highest in racial identity are also the ones most likely to harbor negative attitudes against Latinos. Indeed, we found white identity was significantly correlated with another characteristic – prejudice. </p>
<p>However, differences in prejudice don’t explain the relationship between white identity and Trump support. The pattern in the figure above was tested while statistically controlling for levels of anti-Hispanic prejudice. Because the relationship between identity and support for Trump remains strong, we are confident that white identity independently predicts greater Trump support.</p>
<p>We’ve seen that living close to Hispanics leads whites to develop a strong sense of racial identity and that strong racial identity is associated with support for Donald Trump. We should therefore expect whites in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods support Trump more often than those in neighborhoods with fewer Hispanics. This prediction gains credence from <a href="http://people.hmdc.harvard.edu/%7Erenos/papers/EnosTrains/EnosTrains.pdf">work</a> by political scientist Ryan Enos, who finds that everyday exposure to Latinos can increase support for restrictive immigration policies.</p>
<p>Whites’ support for Donald Trump is, in fact, greatest in areas with a large Hispanic population.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Whites’ support for Donald Trump is greatest in areas with a large Hispanic population.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These findings leave open a crucial question: Do whites in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods support Trump because they tend to be high in white identity? Using a statistical approach called “mediation analysis,” we tested whether white identity accounted for the relationship between exposure to Hispanics and support for Trump. We found that identity does indeed serve as a significant link between Hispanic exposure and Trump support.</p>
<h2>Beyond Trump</h2>
<p>Trump, despite his outsize importance as a candidate and symbol, will eventually fade from the political scene. We therefore sought to examine the interplay of demographics and identity beyond the context of his candidacy. Specifically, we asked respondents for their views on white identity politics itself.</p>
<p>We had participants rate their agreement with a series of statements. For example, “There is nothing wrong with a white person choosing to support a political candidate because that candidate is white” and “Blacks, Latinos, and Asians engage in ‘identity politics,’ and there’s nothing wrong with whites doing the same.”</p>
<p>Exactly the same patterns emerged for these questions as for Trump support: Endorsement of white identity politics was highest in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods and was strongly correlated with white racial identity. These results suggest that America’s growing ethnic diversity is creating a politicized form of white identity that has clear repercussions for future elections.</p>
<p>Why does it matter that whites’ politics are driven by concerns about the interests of their racial group? It suggests that racial bias increasingly reflects attention to the welfare of one’s own group rather than animus toward other groups. These collective concerns are only going to become more pronounced as the nation becomes more diverse.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/knowleslab/wp-content/uploads/sites/670/2014/10/Effron-Knowles-2015.pdf">research</a> in social psychology suggests that when whites engage in discrimination based on their perceived collective interests, it’s hard to convince them that such discrimination is wrong. After all, doesn’t every group have a right to prioritize its own members? We believe our results portend increasing difficulty in achieving the democratic aim of getting race out of American politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67037/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric D. Knowles receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation for research on racial attitudes, identity, and political behavior. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda Tropp receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation for research on relations between U.S.-born and immigrant communities.</span></em></p>A survey of voters shows white racial identity is on the rise. Psychologists explain how it’s affecting the presidential election and how it will change American politics of the future.Eric D. Knowles, Associate Professor of Psychology, New York UniversityLinda R. Tropp, Professor of Social Psychology, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/640852016-09-07T02:46:02Z2016-09-07T02:46:02ZA hint of blue? The 2016 presidential election in Georgia<p>Might Georgia turn blue in the presidential race?</p>
<p>Polling in Georgia has the race as statistical dead heat. The <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html">Real Clear Politics average</a> has the race with Trump at 44.3 percent and Hillary Clinton at 42.7 percent – Trump ahead by 1.6 percent.</p>
<p>In response, the <a href="http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/hillary-clinton-campaign-boosts-democratic-efforts/nsCnC/">Clinton campaign</a> has sent additional funds to hire more field organizers in Georgia. Georgia going blue in this presidential contest would not, itself, be a game-changer. Instead it would be an indication that Hillary Clinton will win the electoral vote in a landslide.</p>
<p>I am a professor of political science at the University of Georgia and director of the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center, and one of my primary research areas is politics in the South. So, where do things stand politically in Georgia with about two months to go before the 2016 general election?</p>
<h2>The ‘state’ of Georgia</h2>
<p>The last time a Democratic presidential nominee won the state was in 1992. That contest was a close one, with Bill Clinton besting George Bush by only <a href="http://sos.ga.gov/elections/election_results/1992/pres.htm">six-tenths of a percentage point</a>. Since then, Georgia has trended heavily Republican. In 2002, Sonny Perdue became the first GOP governor in the state since Reconstruction. In that same election cycle, the Republicans took majority control of the state Senate and two years later the House.</p>
<p>Today, the Republicans have expanded these legislative majorities to almost two-thirds of the seats in both chambers. Currently, both of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats are held by Republicans, as are 10 of the 14 U.S. House seats and all eight state constitutional offices. This trend from Democratic to Republican governance follows a <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rational-southerner-9780199873821?cc=us&lang=en&">similar pattern across states in South</a> – one that has taken literally decades to play out. </p>
<p>So is there any real chance of Hillary Clinton turning the red tide and winning Georgia?</p>
<p>Recent Democratic presidential candidates have won other states in the region. Outside of perennial swing-state Florida, both Virginia and North Carolina voted for Barack Obama in <a href="http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/federalelections2008.shtml">2008</a>, and the Old Dominion repeated in <a href="http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/federalelections2012.shtml#search=2012%20election">2012</a>. There is some evidence that these victories may be attributable to a changing presidential electorate in these states, featuring higher levels of minority turnout and greater numbers of people moving into the region <a href="http://apr.sagepub.com/content/38/2/266.short">from outside the South</a>. Some have forecasted that perhaps Georgia may be next to fall in line with this trend.</p>
<p>Many have also accurately noted the changing racial and ethnic composition of Georgia. The share of the non-Hispanic white population has been steadily dropping. For example, non-Hispanic whites comprised <a href="http://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1990/cp-1/cp-1-12.pdf">70.1 percent</a> of the population in 1990. Currently, this figure stands at <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_14_5YR_B01001H&prodType=table">55 percent</a>. These changes could affect the underlying structure of the political party system which, especially in the South, is largely <a href="http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/for.2016.14.issue-1/for-2016-0007/for-2016-0007.xml?format=INT">based on race</a>. </p>
<h2>Changing tides?</h2>
<p>Well <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rational-southerner-9780199873821?cc=us&lang=en&">more than a majority of non-Hispanic whites identify as, and vote, Republican</a>. Just the opposite is true of racial or ethnic minority groups including blacks and Hispanics. In fact, an easy shorthand for black voting behavior in the South is that one can expect the African-American vote for the Democratic candidate to be at least 90 percent. Many times this figure is closer to 95 percent. </p>
<p>There are also a growing number of Hispanics in the state, from very few in 1990 to <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_14_5YR_B03003&prodType=table">9.1 percent</a> of the total population today.
As the state’s demographic profile shifts, those in the Democratic camp are hopeful that this will naturally increase Democratic voters. This may well happen in the future. However, demographic trends in the general population do not translate on a one-to-one basis <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2006.00419.x/abstract">in the electorate</a>. </p>
<p>If one looks at what the composition of voters will look like in Georgia in 2016, it’s still primarily a black and white world. In 2012, non-Hispanic whites in Georgia comprised <a href="http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2012_1106/">61.4 percent</a> of total voters, blacks 29.9 percent and Hispanics 1.3 percent. </p>
<p>In 2008, Georgia was viewed as a safe Republican state and, as a consequence, neither side put any resources into campaigning there. Somewhat surprisingly, Georgia was the seventh most competitive state in terms of victory margin in 2008 – 5.3 points. While there was an <a href="http://spa.sagepub.com/content/12/1/3.abstract">increase in black turnout in 2008</a>, what most people don’t realize is that there was also a corresponding drop in white turnout in that same election cycle. So, these racial turnout patterns produced a much more competitive contest than had been predicted.</p>
<p>We might see a similar scenario emerge in 2016, although the exact mechanics might differ to some degree. In this case, disaffected conservatives may simply be unwilling to support Trump. They might stay home or show up to the polls, not cast a ballot for president and instead begin voting for offices below that level. I think either of these scenarios is quite plausible. Either way, these typical GOP voters would be absent from Trump’s vote total.</p>
<p>On the other side of the equation, it remains to be seen whether black turnout will remain at 2008 and 2012 levels, now that President Obama is no longer on the ballot. Black <a href="http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/for.2016.14.issue-1/for-2016-0006/for-2016-0006.xml?format=INT">turnout levels</a> in the 2010 and 2014 midterms in Georgia were higher than the two preceding midterms in 2002 and 2006. This suggests the increase in black turnout witnessed in 2008 was not temporary. </p>
<p>Finally, could third-party candidates draw voters away from Trump and help propel Clinton to victory? Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will be on the ballot and may draw a few additional votes from conservatives looking for another option. Third-party candidates, however, don’t typically perform well in Georgia. Despite the fact that Johnson is getting up to 10 percent <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html">in some polls</a>, I think such a figure is highly inflated based on the performance of third-party candidates in <a href="http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/42277/113204/en/summary.html">past presidential contests in Georgia</a>. On Election Day I would expect his vote share in Georgia to be in the 1 to 2 percent range, maximum.</p>
<p>The race in Georgia may be closer than one would have predicted a few months ago. If Clinton does eke out a victory, this is not necessarily an indication of a changed political complexion in Georgia, but rather depressed turnout among white conservatives and a black turnout rate at least comparable to 2012. On the other hand, the GOP still holds a decided advantage in the state. Barring anything completely unforeseen, which very well could be a possibility with Trump, the GOP nominee still holds an intrinsic edge in Georgia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>M.V. Hood III does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls show Trump and Hillary in a dead heat in the Peach State this year. An expert on Southern politics examines the possibility of Georgia turning blue.M.V. Hood III, Professor of Political Science, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/597262016-06-09T01:52:37Z2016-06-09T01:52:37ZAre some students more at risk of assault on campuses?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125773/original/image-20160608-3516-ouqmp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who is more at risk of assault on campus?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/pennstatelive/9032657005/in/photolist-eLbJeB-edmejy-ieKABP-eavRfN-8xbeR1-oUoY8a-qqQuoP-gK2NT2-edmhfo-egXTi4-egveDL-fyk2Kz-8xb3pX-p9t2tQ-ebwXDM-8xCPoS-eanEMs-h5HSoV-8xe4NC-G9pfPt-gtMj2z-8xe4DA-fJvnQv-ehxKqT-8xcG86-nVwRNT-rZmaBT-oY5fc9-CPjh7J-eavLiA-eP9vCV-e6FBmM-oDFwCe-8xCz7f-o2T42n-egvso7-hsSwkj-qhsfxT-eEQpPj-e2Jpo1-eavY3U-ngFAbd-padWnE-e6FypF-nA3FJq-sa3sZh-eahs6Z-8VpVzp-eeaUiS-hsTTcC">Penn State</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When students come to pursue their educational interests, they believe they are entering a safe environment. But while colleges are thought of as “ivory towers,” they can also be places where students could become victims of a crime.</p>
<p>In my research on victims of crime, I have found that particular types of students are more exposed to risks in a college environment. The risks are often tied to the party culture endemic on college campuses, where alcohol consumption is a major feature. </p>
<h2>Who is on campus</h2>
<p>Often these students choose to enroll in universities in the U.S. for a quality education or to be able to <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2015/11/18/456353089/u-s-colleges-see-a-big-bump-in-international-students">pursue the major and career path</a> of their choice. </p>
<p>For almost all young people, this is the first time that they are away from home, responsible for themselves, without adult supervision and an abundance of unstructured time. Part of college culture involves spending time at parties and bars, recreational drug use and engaging in other risky behaviors (e.g., binge drinking, hooking up).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125775/original/image-20160608-3506-vxui0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125775/original/image-20160608-3506-vxui0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125775/original/image-20160608-3506-vxui0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125775/original/image-20160608-3506-vxui0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125775/original/image-20160608-3506-vxui0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125775/original/image-20160608-3506-vxui0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125775/original/image-20160608-3506-vxui0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alcohol consumption exposes students to risks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/codnewsroom/14992312948/in/photolist-oQPwjh-7LXzaG-oQPwZq-4Yo6S-dNC5q9-26qyPH-oQPcvC-bMrRJF-7yJGFA-9j2pms-6XXG3F-dkjCfY-fviEZ7-p85foa-5eRnmr-7xEjtw-6acG1t-bUEb7C-2ph39M-2ppg84-nVKS4d-oQPz5N-2RJiJa-oQPxcu-p8iQ1e-p6gRG7-p8gUcS-p6gRmC-7KheKR-5tU5yC-p6gLSh-p6gRqA-7xPwQ2-p6gLVo-p8gXcu-7AXDDC-p8gVLU-p6gQw1-p8gWwb-oQNFyx-p83md6-7LTBeM-Kzbc9-p83nYF-oQPDmn-p8iL3z-oQPyBo-oQP8L3-p8iQaT-p8iLjM">COD Newsroom</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alcohol consumption becomes a major feature of such activities. Data indicate that about <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1615519/pdf/amjph00445-0027.pdf">65 percent of college students</a> consume alcohol in a given month, and less than half of college students <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3908712/">engage in binge drinking</a>. </p>
<p>Research shows that such behaviors <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00380237.2000.10571174">increase the likelihood</a> of being a crime victim. </p>
<p>Drinking alcohol can increase the chances of being a crime victim because <a href="http://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/media/journal/118-abbey.pdf">alcohol use impairs</a> judgment and perception, decreases the ability to recognize and react to risk, impairs decision-making and delays reaction time.</p>
<h2>Are all college students at risk?</h2>
<p>Research shows about a third of college students could be <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1998.tb01262.x/epdf">victims of a crime during a given year</a>. However, the risks could be different for different ethnic and racial groups on campus.</p>
<p>For example, there could be a higher risk for some groups such as non-Hispanic white men. This group faces the <a href="http://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/vvcs02.pdf">highest risk</a> – most likely a <a href="http://www.jsad.com/doi/pdf/10.15288/jsa.2004.65.115">result of participation</a> in the <a href="http://homepages.wmich.edu/%7Ejbrusk/racealcoholbehavior.pdf">party culture</a>. White, male college students drink alcohol at greater levels and engage in more risky drinking than do female or African-American college students. </p>
<p>But there is a small percentage of international students who come to American campuses as well. In 2015, there were 1.13 million international college students enrolled in the U.S., with the <a href="http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/2014/11/17/number-of-international-college-students-continues-to-climb">largest percentage</a> coming from China.</p>
<p>What is the risk international students face of being a victim?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125776/original/image-20160608-3513-134mwzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125776/original/image-20160608-3513-134mwzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125776/original/image-20160608-3513-134mwzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125776/original/image-20160608-3513-134mwzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125776/original/image-20160608-3513-134mwzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125776/original/image-20160608-3513-134mwzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125776/original/image-20160608-3513-134mwzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">International students face lower risks of assault.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ifesworld/8361481160/in/photolist-dJSM3h-afd7qS-dErCkz-dEx1UU-5B3A2R-9NJybd-afajcg-9M2DUT-ea1YLg-dErCvX-7kpqom-afd6ZN-8SxTyh-bbPsw2-bttEaU-afajuB-9NH9LR-afd6YJ-nTHoFR-9chSab-p6vQv5-7bBNoe-9NJAiA-2SZ3Ju-46uZse-n1TaXZ-r9aZeQ-576zTv-afd6X7-9NF1UU-afd6Zh-dYDAdY-boiid3-9LPBnH-afd6YU-9NBTQp-9bzhff-5B3zPg-6fSXcE-afajiX-bEBEhc-oTKMju-qU3xbM-diJrSR-5B7R3Q-9R9FtS-afaiTB-nJKaaL-6fSSyE-6fNEBM">IFES - International Fellowship of Evangelical Students Follow</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our research explored this possibility, given that international students may have unique experiences before and while attending college in the U.S.</p>
<p>Our study used data from the Fall 2012 American College Health Association’s National College Health Assessment II. <a href="http://www.acha-ncha.org/docs/ACHA-NCHA-II_ReferenceGroup_ExecutiveSUmmary_Fall2012.pdf">This study</a> is a national survey of college students that is done in the fall and spring. Our study sample included 26,012 students, 8.6 percent of whom were international students.</p>
<p>We found that overall, when asked about their experiences from the previous 12 months, international students were less likely to be “violently victimized” – that is, physically assaulted and/or verbally threatened – compared to domestic students. A physical assault might include being hit, punched, kicked, bitten or even shot, while a verbal threat might be experienced when a person is told that he or she is going to get beaten up or is going to be shot. </p>
<p>Nineteen percent of domestic students in our study indicated that they had been physically assaulted or verbally threatened, compared to 17 percent of international students.</p>
<h2>Female international students are safer?</h2>
<p>Subsequently, we looked at differences in risk for male and female international college students. We found that male international students were less likely to be victims of a crime, and so were international female students.</p>
<p>Our study found 22 percent of male international students had been assaulted or threatened, compared with 26 percent of male domestic students. Fourteen percent of female international students had been assaulted or threatened, while 16 percent of female domestic students faced these experiences. </p>
<p>These differences may seem small, and in magnitude, they are. But, we used a large sample of over 26,000 students, which leads us to feel confident that our findings are unlikely to be a result of a problem with our sample. Also, when you consider how many students attend college, a two percent difference (such as what we found between female international students and female domestic students in their risk) could be tens or hundreds of thousands of students. </p>
<p>In an additional set of analyses, we included other factors that previous research has shown to be related to risk on campus, such as alcohol consumption and being a first-year college student. We found that female international students faced fewer risks than did female domestic students. In fact, female international students’ odds of being harmed were 14 percent lower than female domestic students. </p>
<p>And why might this be the case? We found that female international students tended to have a less risky profile than their domestic student counterparts – they binge-drank less, were less likely to use drugs, were less likely to be a first-year undergraduate and were less likely to have a disability. </p>
<p>While there are still some unanswered questions, we believe there must be something unique about how female international students experience college. It is possible that female international students may not be fully engaging in college life. It is possible they might be under <a href="http://jsi.sagepub.com/content/12/2/181.full.pdf+html">increased levels of guardianship</a> or they may experience <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2005-04428-005">culture conflict</a>.</p>
<p>Colleges should work to ensure that international students are a thriving part of the campus community while ensuring that they remain safe. Colleges should also provide culturally sensitive victim responses to international students.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59726/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leah Daigle receives funding from the Criminal Justice Coordinating Council of Georgia to perform research on the civil legal needs of crime victims in Georgia. </span></em></p>In 2015, an unconscious woman was raped near a dumpster on Stanford University campus. Such assaults are not uncommon. But who is most at risk?Leah Daigle, Associate Professor of Criminal Justice and Criminology, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.