tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/peace-18214/articlesPeace – The Conversation2024-03-14T13:28:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254132024-03-14T13:28:27Z2024-03-14T13:28:27ZParis 2024: conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East threaten to turn the Olympic Games into a geopolitical battleground<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581622/original/file-20240313-30-xbar5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C0%2C3935%2C2854&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paris-france-23-september-2017-olympic-736128922">Keitma/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Summer Olympic Games will return to Paris this July exactly a century after it last took place in France. Paris is the hometown of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pierre-baron-de-Coubertin">Pierre de Coubertin</a>, the founder of the modern Olympic Games. </p>
<p>When Coubertin first conceived the revival of this ancient Greek tradition in the late 19th century, he imagined a scene where nations celebrated friendly internationalism by playing sports together. His Olympic idealism provides the foundation for the <a href="https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Document%20Library/OlympicOrg/General/EN-Olympic-Charter.pdf">Olympic charter</a>, a set of rules and guidelines for the organisation of the Olympic Games that emphasise international fraternity and solidarity. </p>
<p>In 1992, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) moved to uphold Coubertin’s legacy by renewing the tradition of the <a href="https://olympictruce.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/IOTC-2010-Brochure-EN.pdf">sacred truce</a> associated with the ancient Olympics. The Olympic truce calls for the cessation of hostilities between warring nations during the Olympic Games and beyond. </p>
<p>The Olympic truce has contributed to peace before – albeit only fleetingly. During the opening ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, the South and North Korean delegations marched into the stadium <a href="https://stillmed.olympic.org/media/Document%20Library/OlympicOrg/News/2018/2018-01-20-Declaration.pdf">together</a> under the single flag of the Korean peninsula. They also fielded a unified Korean ice hockey team for this competition. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-winter-olympics-and-the-two-koreas-how-sport-diplomacy-could-save-the-world-89769">The Winter Olympics and the two Koreas: how sport diplomacy could save the world</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The IOC <a href="https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/News/2023/10/14/2023-10-14-IOC-Session-Mumbai-Bach-Opening-speech.pdf">hopes</a> that the forthcoming Olympics will be a moment for world peace. But with the Paris Olympic torch relay starting next month, the world is plagued with conflict and animosity. And tensions in eastern Europe and the Middle East show no sign of easing. </p>
<p>The 2024 Olympics will take place amid geopolitical turmoil. These conflicts will affect the Olympic Games and throw into question the capacity of sport to reduce tension between nations. </p>
<h2>Banned Russian athletes</h2>
<p>Moscow ordered its army to invade Ukraine four days after the end of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. The IOC considered this aggression a violation of the Olympic truce and subsequently <a href="https://olympics.com/ioc/media/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries">banned</a> Russian athletes from participating in the Paris Olympic Games.</p>
<p>Russia was unhappy with this decision. It <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sports/iocs-ban-russia-cannot-be-compared-with-israel-situation-2023-11-03/">condemned</a> the IOC as being biased towards the west and even appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport against the suspension. But in February 2024, the court eventually <a href="https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/CAS_Award_10093.pdf">upheld</a> the IOC’s position.</p>
<p>Russian athletes will not be absent from the Olympics. The IOC allows them to take part in the competition not as a state delegation but as neutral individuals. Ukraine finds this situation unacceptable, <a href="https://olympics.com/ioc/media/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries">arguing</a> that neutrality cannot remove Russian identity from the Olympics.</p>
<p>The IOC has denounced the Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories. But it also admits the complexity of this geopolitical conflict, and acknowledges that its best approach would be to keep impartiality on this matter. Ukraine responded by implementing a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-olympics-russia-boycott-paris-569d1c75d5e6c835016dd41f1b10c217">policy</a> for its athletes to boycott any contests involving Russians at Paris 2024, although it later lifted this rule. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three helicopters flying over a war-damaged city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581616/original/file-20240313-18-ptcldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581616/original/file-20240313-18-ptcldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581616/original/file-20240313-18-ptcldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581616/original/file-20240313-18-ptcldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581616/original/file-20240313-18-ptcldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581616/original/file-20240313-18-ptcldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581616/original/file-20240313-18-ptcldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Russian assault on the Ukrainian city of Mariupol in 2022 left thousands of civilians dead and injured.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/war-ukraine-huge-damage-cause-by-2156014785">BY MOVIE/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Unhappy Russians</h2>
<p>The war between Israel and Hamas will further complicate the 2024 Olympics, with Olympic officials poised to face allegations of inconsistency concerning Israeli athletes. </p>
<p>This conflict is no less brutal than the war between Ukraine and Russia. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, more than 30,000 people have been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68430925">killed</a> in Gaza since the start of the war. And there is also <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/10/damning-evidence-of-war-crimes-as-israeli-attacks-wipe-out-entire-families-in-gaza">evidence</a> that Israeli forces have committed war crimes in the Gaza Strip. </p>
<p>However, the resolution for the Olympic truce of Paris 2024 singles out the suspension of Russia and does not contain a single word on the violence in Israel and Palestine. </p>
<p>These two warring parties can participate in the Olympics – though the strict <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/07/gaza-who-lives-there-and-why-it-has-been-blockaded-for-so-long">blockade</a> of the Gaza Strip will make it hard for Palestinians to take part in the games. But the Russian delegation is prevented from taking part in the same competition. Russia considers this discrepancy unfair and again blames Olympic officials for siding with the west.</p>
<p>Israel and its allies are seemingly very vocal within the Olympic circle. In October 2023, the IOC <a href="https://olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-member-elections-lead-to-increased-female-representation-among-the-membership">offered</a> Yeal Arad, who in 1992 became the first Israeli to win an Olympic medal, their prestigious membership. When accepting this privileged appointment, she <a href="https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1141836/arad-comments-after-elected">urged</a> the Israeli athletes to give inspiration and hope to their fellow citizens suffering from the tragedy. </p>
<p>At the same IOC session, Cassy Wasserman, the chairperson of the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles, also declared himself “proud to be Jewish” before his speech. </p>
<p>The 2024 Olympic Games in Paris will take place amid conflict and contention. The Olympic truce and the neutrality of international sport is the idealism of the IOC. Not only that, it volunteers to be a messenger of world peace.</p>
<p>Can Paris 2024 be a catalyst for this vision? Unfortunately, the capacity of the Olympics to act as a festival of peaceful internationalism will inevitably be curtailed in this period of geopolitical turmoil. </p>
<p>Despite the facade of festivity in Paris, the escalation of hostilities around the world is likely to trouble the Olympic Games in the French capital.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jung Woo Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Olympic Games have also been highly political events – Paris 2024 will be no different.Jung Woo Lee, Lecturer in Sport and Leisure Policy, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232732024-03-04T13:35:14Z2024-03-04T13:35:14ZIsraeli peace activists are more anguished than ever − in a movement that has always been diverse and divided, with differing visions of ‘peace’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578455/original/file-20240227-18-cypqgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C1024%2C680&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A demonstration on Dec. 28, 2023, in Tel Aviv, organized by the peace group Standing Together, calls for a cease-fire. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-gather-to-stage-demonstration-calling-for-peace-and-news-photo/1883324720?adppopup=true">Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The months since Hamas’ attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, have been excruciating ones for Israeli peace activists. As the country rallies behind the war effort, critics <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/it-is-a-time-of-witch-hunts-in-israel-teacher-held-in-solitary-confinement-for-posting-concern-about-gaza-deaths">have been arrested</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/world/middleeast/israel-oct-7-left-wing-peace.html">and condemned</a> by opponents who say the attacks proved how misguided the peace movement is.</p>
<p>But in activists’ eyes, the horrific violence of Oct. 7 and Israel’s sweeping military response only prove its urgency. Vivian Silver, who spent a decade leading Women Wage Peace – a solidarity group of Israelis and Palestinians – was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/world/middleeast/peace-activists-killed-israel.html">one of several peace activists</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2023/11/17/1213523321/israel-gaza-peace-activist-vivian-silver-funeral-service">murdered that day</a>. “If we want a future here, we have to make the conflict a thing of the past,” her son Yonatan Zeigen <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-02-11/ty-article/.premium/my-mother-vivian-silver-is-gone-who-carries-her-flag/0000018d-9974-d92c-a9ed-fbfd75300000">wrote in an op-ed</a> after her death.</p>
<p>For some activists, in other words, Oct. 7 only underscored the urgency of their cause. Yet the peace movement has always been diverse and often fragmented. In reality, there are multiple movements, each with its own definition of peace. As <a href="https://kroc.nd.edu/faculty-and-staff/atalia-omer/">a scholar of religion, ethics and politics</a>, I have traced how divergent accounts of Israel’s founding connect to <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo15288847.html">different visions of justice</a>.</p>
<h2>The ‘peace camp’</h2>
<p>The Israeli demographics most associated with the “peace camp” are predominately <a href="https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/who-are-ashkenazi-jews/">Ashkenazi Jews</a>, meaning they are descended from communities in Central and Eastern Europe. They also tend to be secular, meaning they do not closely observe traditional Jewish religious law.</p>
<p>Even within this larger camp, however, there are divergent perceptions of justice, shaped by how people understand the root causes of the conflict. Did it truly start in 1917, when a British lord <a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/text-of-the-balfour-declaration#google_vignette">promised a home for Jews</a>? In 1948, with Israel’s War of Independence – which Palestinians experienced as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nakba-at-75-palestinians-struggle-to-get-recognition-for-their-catastrophe-204782">the Nakba, their “catastrophe</a>”? Or is the most important date 1967, when Israel occupied the Golan Heights, east Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?</p>
<p>For the most part, this “peace camp” believes “Israel proper” consists of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54116567">land within the “Green Line</a>,” set by the armistice agreements at the end of the 1948 war. The Green Line does not include the territories Israel has occupied since the end of the 1967 war, which most of the peace camp considers <a href="https://peacenow.org.il/en/about-us/who-are-we">a morally wrong occupation</a>.</p>
<p>More broadly, their vision is grounded in preserving Israel as a democracy with a Jewish majority. This necessitates the creation of a sovereign Palestinian nation-state in the occupied territories.</p>
<p>A prominent example of a secular group <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Beyond+the+Two+State+Solution%3A+A+Jewish+Political+Essay-p-9780745662947">accepting the Green Line as a peace premise</a> is <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30246797?seq=3">the once-robust Peace Now movement</a>, created in 1978 by Israeli veterans. They argue, using human rights and international law, that a permanent occupation will threaten the character of Israel as a Jewish democracy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four adults and a child walk together, leading a march with city buildings in the background, in a black and white photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578464/original/file-20240228-26-h0r0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Peace Now movement arrive in Tel Aviv, finishing a 1983 march for peace that began at Israel’s northern border.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/moshe-ben-baruch-gives-the-peace-sign-to-applauding-members-news-photo/516513418?adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>… and its dissenters</h2>
<p>Ever since the early days of Zionism, however, other Jews have challenged the movement’s basic objective of creating a Jewish-majority state, given <a href="https://fathomjournal.org/the-bride-is-beautiful-but-she-is-married-to-another-man-the-tenacity-of-an-anti-zionist-fable/">the reality that other groups of people, in addition to Jews, already lived</a> in historic Palestine. For example, <a href="https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/brit-shalom-a-covenant-of-peace/">the group Brit Shalom</a>, established in 1926 by European Jewish intellectuals, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27917784?casa_token=a5y8GUrm5WIAAAAA%3AW1hlB5xoTqIhVXHUbp0eaVzhED1b8N5_M4_z3pYUN7Dv4FXzKJfiSNL9UBLM4Db07JqnB8YwESoc_zCyXJTIuboUoGpypsNHrv5metvIOk0oLcTC5mQ">envisioned a binational state</a> that would include equality for non-Jewish Palestinian communities. </p>
<p>In Brit Shalom’s view, a commitment to democratic principles contradicted ambitions for creating a majoritarian Jewish state, which they predicted would depend on driving out Palestinians and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1525/jps.2002.31.3.36">preventing their return</a>.</p>
<p>Other contemporary secular groups that are mostly made up of Jewish Israelis also oppose the Green Line as a basis for peace building. <a href="https://www.zochrot.org/articles/view/17/en?Our_Story">Zochrot, for example</a>, emphasizes <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nakba-at-75-palestinians-struggle-to-get-recognition-for-their-catastrophe-204782">the Nakba</a> of 1948 as a root cause of the conflict. Therefore, they advocate for Palestinian refugees’ <a href="https://www.zochrot.org/sections/view/19/en?Return_Vision">right of return</a>, which is central to Palestinians’ own conceptions of justice.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photograph of a long line of people, including women and children, walking uphill as they hold bags of possessions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578747/original/file-20240228-22-juzwz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The displacement of Palestinians during the 1948 war, often referred to as the Nakba, is central in shaping some activists’ ideas of justice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Refugees_in_Galilee.jpg">Fred Csasznik/'Birth of the Palestinian Refugee Problem' via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other critics of the mainstream peace movement have criticized it for ignoring <a href="https://doi.org/10.2979/jmiddeastwomstud.7.2.56">the social justice struggles of non-Ashkenazi Jewish Israelis</a>, such as Arab Jews or “Mizrahim” and Ethiopian Jews, or connecting those issues with Palestinians’ experience.</p>
<h2>Palestinian voices</h2>
<p>The continuous expansion of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/world/middleeast/israel-west-bank-settlements-expansion.html">Israeli settlements in the West Bank</a> has eroded the Green Line as the basis for peace. This <a href="https://jstreet.org/de-facto-annexation-the-israeli-rights-plan-for-permanent-occupation/">de facto annexation</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/08/israel-palestine-west-bank-annexation-netanyahu-smotrich-far-right/">as many analysts call it</a>, makes it increasingly unlikely that “peace” could mean most Israelis living within the line and most Palestinians outside it.</p>
<p>Yet with the erosion of the Green Line, various organizations are reemphasizing a binational vision of a single state, or two states joined in a confederation. Compared with the “mainstream” peace camp, some of these groups have more Palestinian representation, coming mostly from Palestinian citizens of Israel.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.alandforall.org/english/?d=ltr">A Land for All: Two States One Homeland</a>, known as ALFA, was formed in 2012 and is co-led by Palestinian and Jewish Israelis. In <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDKmPvsywEM">events after Oct. 7</a>, members <a href="https://www.alandforall.org/pain-and-opportunity/?d=ltr">grappled with their grief</a> by resolving to imagine a political future together.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a white shirt kisses the forehead of another woman in a headscarf, whose eyes are closed, as they stand in front of a purple sign." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578751/original/file-20240228-30-nubrrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israeli activist Yael Admi embraces Arab Israeli activist Ghadir Hani following a speech during a Dec. 28, 2023, demonstration in Tel Aviv organized by the group Standing Together.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/israeli-activist-yael-admi-embraces-arab-israeli-activist-news-photo/1883322050?adppopup=true">Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>ALFA’s foundational assumption is that “<a href="https://www.alandforall.org/english/?d=ltr">both people belong in the whole land</a>.” While it believes that, realistically, Jewish settlers will remain in the territories occupied in 1967, it envisions them becoming Israeli residents of a future State of Palestine – one half of a larger confederation with the state of Israel.</p>
<p>Similarly, the organization <a href="https://www.standing-together.org/about-us">Standing Together</a> sent two representatives – one Jewish Israeli, one Palestinian Israeli – to the United States together to hold events with the message that “both Jewish people and Palestinians are going to stay on this land. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/17/world/middleeast/israel-palestinians-standing-together.html">No one is going anywhere</a>.”</p>
<p>Notably, the Palestinian members of groups seeking Palestinian-Israeli dialogues tend to be Israeli citizens from within the Green Line, with a few exceptions, such as <a href="https://cfpeace.org/">Combatants for Peace</a> – a group of Palestinians and Jews committed to nonviolence but made up of former fighters.</p>
<p>However, after decades of “peace process,” many Palestinians interpret coexistence initiatives as a form of <a href="https://www.972mag.com/what-is-normalization/">normalizing the occupation</a>.</p>
<h2>The Faithful Left</h2>
<p>The tension between Israel’s Jewish and democratic identities has been present since before the state’s founding. Under the current hard-line government, however, critics fear the state has been <a href="https://www.btselem.org/publications/fulltext/202101_this_is_apartheid">relinquishing the democratic part</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/26410478-9355297">in favor of Jewish supremacy</a>.</p>
<p>Religious politicians have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-ministers-join-ultranationalist-conference-urging-gaza-resettlement-2024-01-29/">some of the most visible advocates</a> for measures that decrease the likelihood of a contiguous Palestinian sovereign state, such as by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-settlements-hamas-gaza-war-netanyahu-smotrich-1d2306d55c24c8559b630d9f20db30e2">constructing new settlements</a>. Yet the <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/israelpalestine/israels-winning-coalition">current right-wing coalition</a> has provided an impetus for more Israelis who are observant Jews to join peace efforts: <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/eyeing-their-communitys-rightward-shift-left-wing-religious-jews-form-new-movement/">the “Faithful Left</a>,” or Smol Emuni in Hebrew. </p>
<p>The movement was born when hundreds showed up to <a href="https://www.972mag.com/religious-jewish-left-israel/">a Jerusalem conference</a> in January 2023, discussing their discomfort with how Jewish tradition was being used politically, and <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/under-shadow-of-war-conference-of-left-wing-religious-jews-grows-its-numbers/">a second conference</a> was held in February 2024. Because many of the Faithful Left are products of religious Zionist schools, their key advantage within the peace movement is the ability <a href="https://www.academicstudiespress.com/9798887193243/">to challenge</a> arguments for annexation or domination on religious grounds.</p>
<p>Older groups such as <a href="https://www.rhr.org.il/eng?lang=en">Rabbis for Human Rights</a>, whose members range from humanist to Orthodox, have also drawn on religious ideas for decades.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing blue, with a white beard and black hair, carries a large bundle through a dry grove of small trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578756/original/file-20240228-9454-66bbn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S.-born Israeli Reform Rabbi Arik Ascherman, a member of Rabbis for Human Rights, helps Palestinians during the olive harvest outside Ramallah in November 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/born-israeli-reform-jewish-rabbi-arik-ascherman-a-member-of-news-photo/1777936330?adppopup=true">Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some activists within the Faithful Left have also been a part of <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2022-12-04/ty-article/.premium/whos-an-anarchist/00000184-d9c3-dc05-adae-fff3834a0000">Bnei Avraham</a>, a group that <a href="https://www.mekomit.co.il/%D7%99%D7%A9-%D7%9E%D7%90%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%93%D7%95%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%91%D7%99%D7%9F-%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%A9%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%94-%D7%9C%D7%A0%D7%95-%D7%95%D7%91%D7%99%D7%9F/">shows solidarity with Palestinians</a> by building relationships in the West Bank – specifically Hebron, where Palestinians routinely experience <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/09/west-bank-israel-settlers-violence/">violence and harassment</a>.</p>
<p>Secular anti-occupation groups such as <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2017-01-08/ty-article/.premium/masked-israelis-attack-activists-accompanying-palestinian-farmers/0000017f-ecd3-d3be-ad7f-fefb6cda0000">Ta'ayush</a> take this idea one step further by trying to provide in-person protection against violence. For example, Ta'ayush activists walk kids to school or accompany Palestinian shepherds as a buffer to prevent harassment.</p>
<p>The erosion of the Green Line has challenged many peace groups’ visions for peace and justice, as diverse as those are. Even more fundamentally, it has reopened the question of what it means for Israel to be Jewish and democratic – a question at the heart of Israeli peace activists’ challenges today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Atalia Omer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Secular Jewish groups have historically made up the majority of solidarity and peace groups. But Palestinian citizens and observant Jews are also key.Atalia Omer, Professor of Religion, Conflict and Peace Studies, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234172024-02-15T13:34:55Z2024-02-15T13:34:55ZWhy the United States needs NATO – 3 things to know<p>Former President Donald Trump has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/politics/fact-check-trump-nato/index.html">long made it clear that he deeply resents</a> NATO, a 75-year-old military alliance that is composed of the United States and 30 other countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and France. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html">Trump escalated his criticism</a> of NATO on Feb. 10, 2024, when he said that, if he is elected president again in November 2024, the U.S. would not defend any member country that had not “paid up.” </p>
<p>Trump also said that he would encourage Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, “to do whatever the hell they want” with a NATO member that was “delinquent” in paying for its defense. </p>
<p>NATO is the Western world’s foremost defense organization. It is headquartered in Brussels. The central idea behind NATO’s existence, as explained in <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:%7E:text=Article%205%20provides%20that%20if,to%20assist%20the%20Ally%20attacked.">Article 5</a> of NATO’s 1949 treaty, is that all NATO countries agree to defend any other NATO country in case of an attack. </p>
<p>NATO has no standing army and relies on member countries to volunteer their military forces to carry out any operation. So all NATO countries agree to <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm#:%7E:text=In%202006%2C%20NATO%20Defence%20Ministers,ensure%20the%20Alliance%27s%20military%20readiness.">spend 2% of their annual gross domestic product</a> on military defense in order to support NATO. </p>
<p>Some countries, like the U.S., the U.K., Poland, Finland, Greece and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, devote more than 2% of their GDP to military defense. About half of NATO’s members, including Germany, France, Norway, Spain and Turkey, <a href="https://www.forces.net/news/world/nato-which-countries-pay-their-share-defence#:%7E:text=Ukraine%20war&text=Poland%20is%20the%20alliance%27s%20biggest,3.01%25%20the%20next%20closest.">spend less</a>. </p>
<p>NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg said in a written statement on Feb. 11 that <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/trump-nato-russia-attack-white-house-appalling-unhinged/32814229.html#">Trump’s suggestion</a> “undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk.” Other political leaders also criticized Trump’s comments as highly dangerous. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=bs9WVS0AAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of history and international affairs,</a> it is clear to me that Trump does not seem to understand the many advantages the U.S. gets from being part of NATO. Here are three major benefits for the U.S. that come with NATO membership: </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two cookies are seen on a plate - one has frosting designed like the American flag, and the other is blue with a white compass on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575418/original/file-20240213-30-fy2sgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NATO and American flag cookies are seen at a meeting between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Jan. 29, 2024, in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/and-american-flag-cookies-at-a-meeting-between-defense-news-photo/1963151870?adppopup=true">Julia Nikhinson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. NATO gives the US reliable allies</h2>
<p>Militarily and economically, the U.S. is a hugely formidable power. It has the <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Experience/Americas-Nuclear-Triad/">largest nuclear arsenal</a> on earth and continues to be the largest economy in the world. </p>
<p>Yet, without its allies in Asia, and above all without those in Europe, the U.S would be a much diminished superpower. </p>
<p>NATO provides the U.S. with a leadership position in one of the strongest military alliance networks in the world. This leadership goes well beyond the security realm – it has profound and very positive political and economic ripple effects. For instance, most Western countries <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/14/global-arms-sales-us-dominates-russia#">purchase their arms and military</a> equipment from the U.S. </p>
<p>Russia counts controversial regimes known for human rights violations such as Iran, North Korea and, to some extent, China, among its most important allies. The U.S. considers economically strong countries like Canada, Germany, France, Italy and many other established democracies as its friends and allies.</p>
<p>NATO has invoked <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm">Article 5</a> only once – immediately after the U.S. <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_77646.htm#:%7E:text=12%20September%202001&text=Later%20that%20day%2C%20the%20Allies,abroad%20against%20the%20United%20States.">was attacked on Sept. 11, 2001</a>. America’s NATO allies were ready to come to the aid of the U.S. – and, for good or for bad, many subsequently participated in the United States’ war in Afghanistan.</p>
<h2>2. NATO provides peace and stability</h2>
<p>NATO provides a blanket of protection and mutual security for all its members, helping explain why the vast majority of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/03/30/7-former-communist-countries-join-nato/476d93dc-e4bd-4f05-9a15-5b66d322d0e6/">countries in central and eastern Europe</a> clamored to join NATO after the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union">fall of the Soviet Union</a> in 1991. </p>
<p>Today, Ukraine continues to <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3455199/leaders-agree-to-expedite-ukraines-nato-membership/">push for NATO membership</a> – though its application to join appears unlikely to be granted anytime soon, given the military commitment this would create for the alliance. </p>
<p>Russia fought short wars in recent <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91277">years with Moldova</a>, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/">Georgia</a> and also with <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/">Ukraine prior</a> to 2022, but Putin has not invaded neighboring countries that are NATO members. Invading a NATO country would bring the entire alliance into a war with Russia, which would be a risky gamble for Moscow.</p>
<p>Despite international concern that Russia’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/27/us/politics/ukraine-war-expansion.html">war in Ukraine could spill over</a> into neighboring NATO countries, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/29/poland-says-russian-missile-briefly-entered-its-airspace#:%7E:text=%22Everything%20indicates%20that%20a%20Russian,from%20%5BNATO%5D%20allies.%22">like Poland</a> and the three Baltic nations, it has not yet happened. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Donald Trump enters a stage with an American flag on it, with blue-lit lighting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575424/original/file-20240213-24-8gq9w5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump arrives at a news conference during the July 2018 NATO summit in Brussels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-to-speak-to-the-media-at-a-news-photo/996942026?adppopup=true">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. NATO has helped the US get stronger</h2>
<p>The Soviet Union’s <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_138294.htm">military alliance, called the Warsaw Pact</a>, required the USSR and its satellite states in central and eastern Europe, including East Germany, Poland and Hungary, to join. NATO, on the other hand, is a voluntary military alliance, and countries must go through a demanding application process before they are accepted. </p>
<p>The United States’ current presence in Europe – and Asia – has not been imposed by force. Instead, U.S. troops and influence in Europe are generally welcomed by its allies. </p>
<p>By joining NATO and accepting the military leadership of Washington, the other NATO countries give the U.S. unprecedented influence and power. Norwegian scholar Geir Lundestad called this an “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/002234338602300305">empire by invitation</a>.” This informal empire has deeply anchored the U.S. and its influence in Europe. </p>
<h2>A split in opinion</h2>
<p>President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that under his leadership the U.S. would “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-calls-trumps-nato-remarks-un-american-rcna138670#:%7E:text=%22As%20long%20as%20I%27m,a%20rally%20in%20South%20Carolina.">defend every inch</a> of NATO territory,” speaking primarily in the context of Russia’s war on Ukraine. </p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/biden-warns-putin-on-nato-threat-as-russia-annexes-ukraine-regions.html">repeatedly warned Putin</a> that he would face the consequences if Russia attacks a NATO member.</p>
<p>For Trump, however, transatlantic solidarity and mutual defense appear to count for nothing. For him, it seems to be all about the money and whether or not NATO countries spend 2% of their GDP on defense. And despite Putin having begun a terrible war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, Trump has continued to voice his <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923">admiration of the Russian leader</a>.</p>
<p>Trump does not view Putin’s Russia as an existential threat to the U.S.-led global order. And thus he does not seem to realize that the U.S. and its European allies need protection from Putin’s Russia, the kind of protection offered by NATO. NATO’s existence gives the U.S. strong and reliable allies, provides Washington with great influence in Europe and makes sure that most of Europe remains stable and peaceful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Klaus W. Larres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump has threatened to not defend some NATO countries if Russia attacks them. But the US also benefits from the power that NATO gives it, as well as the stability it helped create in Europe.Klaus W. Larres, Professor of History and International Affairs, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214222024-02-04T11:54:02Z2024-02-04T11:54:02ZChad: promises of a new chapter fade as junta strengthens its hold ahead of elections<p>It’s been three years since Chad’s former president <a href="https://theconversation.com/idriss-deby-itno-offered-chadians-great-hope-but-ended-up-leaving-a-terrible-legacy-159443">Idriss Déby Itno</a> died. A transitional authority took over after his death. Yet the transition to democracy that was on the cards following his 31 years in power has failed to materialise.</p>
<p>What Chadians hoped for was:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a referendum on whether they wanted to be a unitary or federal state</p></li>
<li><p>a return to constitutional order once that had been decided </p></li>
<li><p>a return to democracy with elections being held by October 2024.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>But the fulfilment of this plan has hit the wall. Chadians are concerned that the transitional authority isn’t acting in their interests but rather in the interest of transitional <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/mahamat-idriss-deby-itno-named-chad-s-transitional-president/2706374">president Mahamat Idriss Déby</a>.</p>
<p>Concerns were sparked by the way the referendum was run. Chadians and international observers had <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/649385-analysis-can-chads-constitutional-referendum-still-be-saved.html">assumed</a> that voters could choose between two constitutions, a unitarian and a federal one. But the national commission in charge of running the referendum <a href="https://www.eisa.org/yes-no-or-boycott-a-fierce-campaign-ahead-of-chads-constitutional-referendum/">presented</a> the option of approving or rejecting the complete draft for a centralised constitution. The vote was to be Oui (yes) or Non (no).</p>
<p>In the run-up to the referendum, it became clear that nothing had changed under the rule of transitional <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/mahamat-idriss-deby-itno-named-chad-s-transitional-president/2706374">president Mahamat Idriss Déby</a>, one of the sons of late Idriss Déby. Critics of the process argue that the main aim of the referendum was in fact to legitimise the transitional authority’s policies at national and international level.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/1/former-chad-opposition-leader-appointed-as-pm-of-transitional-government#:%7E:text=Chad's%20transitional%20government%20has%20appointed,the%20presidency%2C%20said%20on%20Monday.">appointment</a> on 1 January of the former opposition leader Succès Masra as the new prime minister raised fresh concerns. Masra is a controversial opposition figure who has recently endeared himself to Chad’s president.</p>
<p>As a political scientist who has <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279330599_Authoritarian_Structures_in_Chad_Perceptions_of_Power_among_the_Powerless?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InByb2ZpbGUiLCJwYWdlIjoicHJvZmlsZSJ9fQ">researched</a> Chad and its politics for the last 15 years, my view is that the referendum and the appointment of Masra only benefit <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/mahamat-idriss-deby-itno-named-chad-s-transitional-president/2706374">Déby</a> – not the Chadian people. </p>
<p>Under these circumstances, Chadians could once again go into rebellion. Chad is a country that is prone to a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23018899">cycle of violent rebellion and repression</a>. In this context some observers fear the outbreak of violence. Peace and unity may continue to evade Chad.</p>
<h2>Who benefits from a centralised Chad?</h2>
<p>Chad is an ethnically, religiously and politically <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Chad/Ethnic-groups">divided</a> country. On top of this, the question of the kind of state it should be has been a divisive issue since independence from France in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Chad/History">August 1960</a>.</p>
<p>Under the late Déby’s reign, only politicians of the south repeatedly asked for federalism. Politicians used federalism to express their opposition to Idriss Déby’s authoritarian rule and to demand an equal share of state revenues. </p>
<p>The opposition has always argued that a unitary state has not advanced the country since independence. Furious at the way in which the referendum was being organised, the opposition, which included representatives from all parts of the country, rejected the new constitution. </p>
<p>As before, they argued that a unitary state had not advanced the country since independence. In addition, they argued that the proposed constitution did not comply with the national dialogue’s <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/after-a-new-constitution-whats-next-for-chad/a-67851992">propositions</a> and would perpetuate the Déby clan and the transitional authorities in power.</p>
<p>The referendum results, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/voa60-africa---chad-s-supreme-court-confirms-result-of-constitutional-referendum/7417462.html">confirmed</a> by the Supreme Court, put voter turnout at 63.7%. Out of this number, 85.90% voted Oui, 14.10% Non. </p>
<p>On 1 January Masra was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/1/former-chad-opposition-leader-appointed-as-pm-of-transitional-government#:%7E:text=Chad's%20transitional%20government%20has%20appointed,the%20presidency%2C%20said%20on%20Monday.">appointed</a> as the new prime minister by the transitional president.</p>
<h2>Uncertain future</h2>
<p>Masra is a controversial figure. His appointment came as a surprise and raises a host of concerns, including the fact that it sidelined the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/chad-saleh-kebzabo-named-as-new-prime-minister/a-63418692">transitional prime minister, Saleh Kebzabo</a>. </p>
<p>Kebzabo had led the coalition that was formed ahead of the referendum. It was made up mainly of members of the transitional authorities and more than 200 political parties. </p>
<p>Masra, president of the <a href="https://eng.fatshimetrie.org/2023/11/07/release-of-activists-from-the-les-transformateurs-party-in-chad-an-expected-relief-in-the-face-of-political-challenges/">party Les Transformateurs</a>, joined the coalition during the last days of the campaign and toured his native south.</p>
<p>Masra invokes strong passions in Chad. He was the main organiser of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/23/chad-justice-needed-october-crackdown">demonstrations</a> in October 2022. These were organised in protest against a decision taken by the transitional government to extend the transition to democracy, and the announcement that Mahamat Déby would stand in the next elections. Hundreds of demonstrators were <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/02/24/deadly-chad-protests-death-toll-now-estimated-at-128//">killed</a> by security forces, and the day was named <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67505683">Black Thursday</a>.</p>
<p>Prior to the tragedy, intermediaries had pressed Masra to cancel the demonstrations. It was known to insiders that special forces would react without any mercy for protesters, even peaceful ones.</p>
<p>Masra fled the country. For the next year he toured the world, vehemently <a href="https://www.trtafrika.com/africa/chad-opposition-leader-returns-from-exile-15675412">denouncing</a> Mahamat Déby and his regime at every opportunity. </p>
<p>After an agreement mediated by the DRC’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67718533">Felix Tshisekedi</a>, he <a href="https://weafrica24.com/2023/11/22/historic-meeting-between-mahamat-idriss-deby-and-opponent-succes-masra/">returned</a> to Chad in November 2023 and was received in the presidential palace in N’Djamena by Déby. </p>
<p>Since then the two men, almost the same age, have called each other brothers.</p>
<p>But relations between Kebzabo and Masra are extremely bad. This was evident in the icy atmosphere at the handover ceremony. </p>
<p>Kebzabo <a href="https://monitor.civicus.org/explore/chad-black-thursday-at-least-50-killed-in-protests-against-extension-military-transitional-period-qhf1/">labelled</a> Masra a terrorist after the Black Thursday protest and accused him of planning a coup d'état. Kebzabo was clearly unhappy having to vacate his office in favour of a man 35 years younger.</p>
<p>Masra, known for his presidential ambitions since he wanted to run against Idriss Déby in 2021, will certainly stand for office this year. He faces major handicaps, though. </p>
<p>Firstly, now seen as Déby’s close collaborator, he has <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/19/chad-is-succes-masra-being-rejected-by-the-opposition/">lost</a> many of his followers and allies.</p>
<p>It’s also clear from the publication of his cabinet that he has very little room for manoeuvre. With a few exceptions, the most important ministerial posts of Kebzabo’s cabinet have been confirmed in office.</p>
<p>Masra could only appoint a few companions to state secretariat positions. </p>
<p>As a prime minister, he has to organise the elections this year. At the same time, as a potential presidential candidate he needs to satisfy the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/chad/overview#:%7E:text=Poverty%20and%20vulnerability%20are%20pervasive,2021%20and%2035.4%25%20in%202023.">poverty-stricken</a> Chadian population. But the 2024 budget was approved before his appointment. </p>
<p>In his first statement he <a href="https://weafrica24.com/2024/01/18/chad-prime-minister-succes-masra-to-pres/">announced</a>, among many things, that he would address the country’s dilapidated school system. But, without any budget and little room to manoeuvre, it is doubtful whether he will be able to reconcile his ambitions with his new post.</p>
<p>It seems that Mahamat Déby is not only the winner of the referendum. He has also managed to embed his most dangerous political opponent into the transitional structures and under his authority. </p>
<p>Déby can wait calmly for the presidential elections and will most likely win the race against his prime minister and newly found brother. </p>
<p>Chadians, for their part, could well have lost the last bit of trust in politicians and democratic procedures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helga Dickow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transitional president Mahamat Idriss Déby appears to be the only winner of the Chadian constitutional referendum.Helga Dickow, Senior Researcher at the Arnold Bergstraesser Institut, Freiburg Germany, University of FreiburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182242023-12-05T22:16:31Z2023-12-05T22:16:31ZSeizing Russian state assets to rebuild Ukraine: Will it prolong the war, or end it?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/seizing-russian-state-assets-to-rebuild-ukraine-will-it-prolong-the-war-or-end-it" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>International momentum is growing to <a href="https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/3/7427049/">seize Russian state assets</a>, including central bank reserves, to pay for rebuilding a post-war Ukraine <a href="https://www.cer.eu/insights/why-russia-must-pay-damage-ukraine">instead of expecting western taxpayers to foot the bill</a>.</p>
<p>Canada has moved beyond sanctions, freezes and seizure of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2022/12/canada-starts-first-process-to-seize-and-pursue-the-forfeiture-of-assets-of-sanctioned-russian-oligarch.html#;%20https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2023/06/government-of-canada-orders-seizure-of-russian-registered-cargo-aircraft-at-toronto-pearson-airport.html">private assets</a> to pave the way to seizing state assets — and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/us-ukraine-war-antony-blinken-thinks-russia-should-pay-for-restoration-of-ukraine-you-broke-it-you-bought-it/">other countries</a> are poised to follow suit. </p>
<p>But will seizing Russian state assets discourage Russia from ending the war? Or is it instead a new tool for peacemaking?</p>
<p>Canada <a href="https://wrmcouncil.org/publications/leading-by-example/">leads the world</a> with its <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/sen/YB441-278-1.pdf">recent amendment</a> to the <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/s-14.5/page-1.html">Special Economic Measures Act (SEMA)</a> allowing the seizure of Russian state assets in addition to private assets to rebuild Ukraine. But there’s concern it could lead to a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/27/russia-ukraine-war-central-bank-reserves-assets-seize-reparations-sanctions/;%20https://jp.reuters.com/article/us-russia-assets-breakingviews-idDEKCN2N30RL">loss of leverage with Russia</a> in terms of efforts to pressure it to end the war. </p>
<h2>Sanctions and leverage</h2>
<p>Current tools used to try to halt a warring state’s actions —sanctions, embargoes, asset freezes and international exclusion, for example — are <a href="https://www.lcil.cam.ac.uk/sites/www.law.cam.ac.uk/files/images/www.lcil.cam.ac.uk/ukraine/moret_sanctions_relief.pdf">designed to be reversible</a> so as to create leverage. The message, essentially, is this: stop the war, and you’ll get your trade, assets and access back.</p>
<p>While less than effective much of the time (which explains the ongoing nature of many sanctions against Russia), this is nonetheless the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-are-economic-sanctions">favoured logic of the international community</a>. </p>
<p>The current war in Ukraine is causing a reconsideration of this logic. With sanctions on Russia clearly not working — Russian officials seem to be assuming they’ll get their trade, assets and access back — the prolonged war is increasing the <a href="https://www.globalpolicywatch.com/2023/07/ukraines-reconstruction/">cost of reconstruction</a> enormously. </p>
<p>Western taxpayers are not keen to foot the bill for this, especially when the value of Russian state assets frozen by the West is <a href="https://thefinancialcrimenews.com/where-are-the-sanctioned-russian-assets-frozen-in-the-west-and-how-much-is-actually-frozen/">so large</a>.</p>
<p>The obvious alternative is to simply use the frozen Russian money instead of hard-earned western taxpayer funds to rebuild Ukraine. It’s an attractive logic, but <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/18/russian-assets-can-pay-for-ukraine-s-reconstruction-the-question-is-how/d5cfae0a-2564-11ee-9201-826e5bb78fa1_story.html">has been criticized</a> for being non-reversible, thereby depriving the West of a way to pressure Russia to end the war. </p>
<p>Certain <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-afraid-to-go-it-alone-on-seizing-russian-assets-profits/c">western countries</a> are concerned about this. But Canada draws a different conclusion. </p>
<h2>Different types of leverage</h2>
<p>Canadian Sen. Ratna Omidvar successfully pushed for the modification of SEMA to allow for the seizure of an aggressor state’s assets for use in reconstructing countries it invades.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1729546999022678032"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://news.err.ee/1608872648/in-confiscating-frozen-russian-assets-estonia-may-follow-canadian-example">While other states are keen to follow</a>, the concern about a loss of leverage persists. However, the way seizure happens can mean the difference between losing leverage and creating leverage — and the possible birth of a new tool.</p>
<p>Leverage in international relations is a curious thing. There is “reward leverage,” when states are rewarded for complying with international norms. Unfreezing assets falls into this category. </p>
<p>Then there is “threat leverage,” with the threat of progressively punishing countermeasures that can be put in place for non-compliance. There’s also “<a href="https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/1697/">reversible rewards</a>” that combine the two approaches.</p>
<p>While seizing Russian state assets may lessen the reward leverage associated with unfreezing assets, it can also, if done right, create significant threat leverage. </p>
<p>If the seizure of assets is explicitly and publicly linked to specific belligerent actions — like targeting civilians, refusing to return abducted children, destroying civilian infrastructure or failing to de-escalate — then the phased seizure becomes a tool that acts as a threat against further belligerent actions. It’s linked to specific asset seizures in the future. </p>
<p>The phased confiscation of assets therefore has three purposes: it serves <a href="http://www.qil-qdi.org/third-party-countermeasures-progressive-development-international-law/">as progressive punishment</a>, as money used to rebuild and as leverage against a state for further harms. </p>
<h2>Russia only the first target</h2>
<p>In the case of Russia, it’s not clear such actions would have a major impact on how it’s waging its war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>However, Omidvar’s <a href="https://youtu.be/6G1DFd8_9xQ?si=GKaTctM9lXtlOpyX">recent speech</a> outlining the SEMA amendment explicitly noted that the Ukraine war is just the first conflict that will be affected, with belligerent states in future wars very much a target. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6G1DFd8_9xQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Ratna Omidvar explains the SEMA amendment in the Senate. (Omidvar’s YouTube channel)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s why Omidvar’s amendment introduces a new tool that can be used against aggressor states in cases where sanctions are ineffective, as in Sudan, Syria and Myanmar, to name just a few areas of conflict.</p>
<p>The tool has two components.</p>
<p>The first is that the seizure itself sends a message to potential aggressors that assets will be confiscated if armed aggression toward another state takes place, thereby encouraging belligerent nations to rethink their course of action.</p>
<p>The second is that with a war underway, seizures linked to specific belligerent actions or inactions constitute a progressive series of punishments that creates leverage against any state that continues its aggressive actions.</p>
<p>That new tool aligns with the recognition that <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/countermeasures-and-the-confiscation-of-russian-central-bank-assets">new approaches are needed when it comes to dealing with aggressive states like Russia, and international law is open to evolving</a>.</p>
<p>The war in Ukraine is teaching the world many lessons, among them the ineffectiveness of conventionally applied sanctions. Additional tools are needed not just for the current war, but for future military conflicts. The international community would do well to emulate Canada’s approach.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors would like to acknowledge Michael Cholod, executive director of <a href="https://www.thepeacecoalition.com/">The Peace Coalition</a>, for his contributions to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218224/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Goodell receives funding from the Peer Social Foundation, the Stellar Development Foundation, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (via the Alan Turing Institute). He is affiliated with the Bank of England CBDC Technology Forum, the British Standards Institution, the Whitechapel Think Tank, the Bloxberg Assocation (Germany), the Digital Token Identifier Foundation, the International Association of Trusted Blockchain Applications (Belgium), and the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Central Bank Digital Currency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Unruh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine? Canada is the first to pass a law allowing Russian state assets to be seized to rebuild Ukraine, but will it discourage Russia from ending the war?Jon Unruh, Professor, Geography Department, McGill UniversityGeoffrey Goodell, Lecturer in Financial Computing, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176472023-11-21T13:23:22Z2023-11-21T13:23:22ZWhat would it take for a cease-fire to happen in Gaza?<p>Calls for a cease-fire and other limits on military operations and violence were made by <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/cease-fire-israel-palestine">governments</a>, <a href="https://www.ijvcanada.org/ijv-calls-for-a-ceasefire-and-systemic-change-in-palestine-israel/">advocacy</a> <a href="https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2023-10/quaker-lobby-calls-urgent-de-escalation-violence-israel-and-gaza">groups</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/11/democratic-divisions-ceasefire-comments-israel-war/">political leaders</a> around the world almost immediately after the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre of 1,200 Israeli civilians by Hamas. Israel immediately declared war on Hamas and began shelling and then invaded Gaza, leading to more than 11,000 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/gaza-rising-death-toll-civilians/">civilian deaths</a> and massive destruction. </p>
<p>Global <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/15/poll-us-israel-support-hamas-war">calls for cease-fires</a> have continued to be made by hundreds of <a href="https://pressley.house.gov/2023/11/15/pressley-joins-colleagues-in-calling-on-biden-admin-to-establish-a-ceasefire-protect-children-in-the-gaza-strip/">disparate organizations</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinian-war-march-washington-830cb77476af80ffde431165ee01533d">tens of thousands of demonstrators</a>. </p>
<p>The United Nations General Assembly and Security Council have issued <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142847">calls for fighting to stop</a>, to ensure “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143632">the immediate, continuous, sufficient and unhindered provision</a> of essential goods and services to civilians throughout the Gaza Strip” and to ensure “immediate, full, sustained, safe and unhindered humanitarian access” for the U.N. and other agencies. </p>
<p>To date, there has been no cease-fire, though in early November, Israel agreed to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-humanitarian-pauses-b8fc613ffd8b9351c0dc37b90b6e10dd">stop attacks for four hours a day</a> to allow refugees to flee and aid to be distributed. And other <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/qatar-seeking-israel-hamas-deal-to-free-50-hostages-and-3-day-truce-sources-say/articleshow/105238187.cms">efforts to establish a cease-fire agreement</a> are reportedly underway.</p>
<p>Those demanding a cease-fire are driven by humanitarian compassion and principles, primarily the need to protect civilians caught up in a terrible war. But as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jMEGeTUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of mediation</a> who also works as an international mediator, I know that cease-fires are technically complicated military and political undertakings that always entail risk and require <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/thematic-areas/ceasefires-security-arrangements">specialist expertise</a>.</p>
<h2>The basic requirements</h2>
<p>In addition to providing mediation training to senior international diplomats, I have done <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viac065">comparative research</a> on what constitutes a strong cease-fire. I also have practical experience: In 2005 and 2006 I was a member of the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2006/05/02/5377336/african-union-extends-mediation-talks-on-darfur">African Union mediation team for ending violent conflict in Darfur</a>, responsible for drafting the peace agreement’s cease-fire provisions. To this end, I facilitated tense negotiations between Sudanese military officers and Darfur rebels.</p>
<p>On the basis of my research and experience, it is clear that a strong cease-fire agreement must always have clear and viable rules and timelines, including about the use and control of weapons, the movements of fighters and the activities of humanitarian agencies.</p>
<p>The leadership and rank and file of the opposing forces must understand precisely what their responsibilities are in a cease-fire. They must know exactly what activities are prohibited and what activities are permitted. </p>
<p>Moreover, the rules and procedures must be tailored to the particular political, military and geographic circumstances of each conflict. The details of a humanitarian cease-fire agreement for Gaza would look completely different from, say, the cease-fire agreement for Darfur. And it needs political will from the opposing parties, which varies from case to case and can change over time.</p>
<h2>A cease-fire for Gaza</h2>
<p>The relevant circumstances of Gaza include these facts:</p>
<ul>
<li>Israel has <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/how-do-hamas-and-hezbollah-compare-with-israel-militarily/a-67166698">much more powerful military capabilities</a> than Hamas.</li>
<li>The fighting in Gaza is taking place in a densely populated area.</li>
<li>Hamas fighters are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/18/israel-gaza-war-planning-hamas-direction/">physically close to and perhaps even immersed in the civilian population</a> of Gaza.</li>
<li>The U.N. and numerous other organizations have said it is <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143632">essential for Hamas to release the Israeli hostages</a> it holds.</li>
<li>The people of Gaza have critical humanitarian needs for food, water, shelter and safety, as well as hospital and medical support.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Israeli government and Hamas would have to negotiate mutually acceptable ways of addressing these challenges.</p>
<p>It would also be important to consult the <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/">U.N. and other humanitarian agencies</a> to determine what they need in order to provide humanitarian support and protect children, injured people and other vulnerable groups.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People help a dust-covered man into the back of a truck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560192/original/file-20231117-21-wvkehj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palestinians search through rubble to find survivors in Gaza on Nov. 17, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-search-through-buildings-destroyed-during-israeli-news-photo/1798268440">Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The role of trust – and mistrust</h2>
<p>Opposing groups who are in violent conflicts inevitably hate and mistrust each other. It is therefore helpful for cease-fire negotiations to be supported by a mediator who is sufficiently trusted by the parties. The mediator can facilitate these negotiations through indirect dialogue – referred to as “<a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/shuttle-diplomacy">shuttle diplomacy</a>” – when the parties are unwilling or unable to meet face-to-face.</p>
<p>In the Gaza crisis, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/qatar-seeking-israel-hamas-deal-to-free-50-hostages-and-3-day-truce-sources-say/articleshow/105238187.cms">Qatar</a>, supported by the United States, is playing the mediator role. Qatari mediators are attempting to negotiate a deal between Hamas and Israel that could include the release of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/qatar-says-challenges-israel-hamas-hostage-deal-are-just-logistical-2023-11-19/">roughly 50 civilian hostages from Gaza in exchange for a three-day cease-fire</a>.</p>
<p>There are two other ways cease-fires can be strengthened in order to mitigate the hatred and mistrust between the parties. The first is by deploying cease-fire monitors – independent observers on the field of battle – who investigate alleged cease-fire violations. Their presence can help to deter violations.</p>
<p>The second way is by setting up communication channels between the mediator and representatives of the warring parties to resolve disputes and address violations that inevitably arise. The goal is to prevent small-scale violations from escalating into large-scale violations that could herald a return to hostilities.</p>
<h2>Political will is important</h2>
<p>Israel and Hamas can overcome the technical difficulties of a Gaza cease-fire if they have the political will to do so. It is relevant that Israel and Hamas have <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/11/4/23945628/israel-hamas-war-gaza-ceasefire-history-explained">previously negotiated cease-fires</a> and truces in Gaza. And <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-gaza-palestinians-fire-rockets-truce-bid-lingers-2023-05-13/">in 2023 a truce</a> between Israel and the Gaza-based Islamic Jihad militant group was brokered by Egyptian mediators after cross-border attacks. A cease-fire brokered by the U.S. in November 2012 lasted 18 months. But none of the cease-fires was likely to hold in the long term because they were not linked to a political resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict.</p>
<p>In responding to the Gaza crisis, some world leaders have appeared <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/us/politics/israel-gaza-ceasefire-pause.html">confused about</a> the distinction between a truce, a humanitarian pause, a cease-fire and a cessation of hostilities. <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/thematic-areas/ceasefires-security-arrangements">In general</a>, there is no international consensus on the meaning of these terms. In Gaza, as in every case, the cease-fire objectives, rules and procedures matter more than the labels that are used.</p>
<p>The current focus of international calls for a cease-fire is on humanitarian relief as a short-term objective. But the humanitarian situation, and the need to protect civilians in Gaza, will remain critical in the medium to long term.</p>
<p>The question of a permanent cease-fire and long-term security arrangement will have to be part of any negotiations to finally resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If the vision of a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/two-state-solution">two-state solution</a> is realized, the challenge will be to ensure that both Israel and an independent Palestinian state can enjoy sovereignty and adequate self-defense without threatening each other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurie Nathan is affiliated with the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame. </span></em></p>Calls for a cease-fire in Gaza are driven by humanitarian compassion and principles. But cease-fires are also technically complicated military and political ventures.Laurie Nathan, Professor of the Practice of Mediation, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2158142023-10-18T19:07:08Z2023-10-18T19:07:08ZYes, Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands has to end – but massacres of civilians won’t bring this end any closer<p>Notwithstanding a brief period of hope in the mid-1990s, successive Israeli governments have long held that the country’s security <a href="https://www.jpost.com/opinion/op-ed-contributors/the-lessons-of-lebanon-i#google_vignette">must inevitably rely on military might</a>. But what may have worked in other places has not proven sustainable for the complex realities of the Israel-Palestine situation.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-951" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/951/58803d8c914b810a104defba8599652b6260bb00/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In the century-long feud between the two sides over land, there’s been little respite from violence. Competing territorial claims continue to fuel duelling narratives of victimisation. These foment anger, animosity, fear and mistrust. Colossal leadership errors on both sides during historical junctures have led to <a href="https://fes-org-il-pub.s3.amazonaws.com/NetanyaCollege/IsraeliPalestinianDiplomaticProcessEnglish.pdf">missed opportunities</a> to resolve a conflict that becomes more intractable by the year.</p>
<p>On the Jewish Israeli side, deep-rooted existential fears, following millennia of persecution, pogroms and the trauma of the Holocaust, were later exacerbated by a number of mostly defensive wars fought against neighbouring Arab states. </p>
<p>From the 1960s, Israel’s desire for security was further challenged by continual terrorist attacks targeting its civilians. These experiences resulted in strong society-wide yearnings – to a level unfathomable by outsiders – for <a href="https://jstribune.com/ortal-going-on-the-attack/">military supremacy</a> as a means to ensure the country’s survival.</p>
<p>On the Palestinian side, experiences of dispossession, injustice, deprivation, daily humiliation, endless violations of rights and a sense of abandonment by the world – including by Arab states – have caused immeasurable despair.</p>
<p>Added to the tensions since the 1980s have been the steadily increasing influences of religious and radical nationalist ideologies <a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/religion-and-israel-palestinian-conflict-cause-consequence-and-cure">on both sides of the fence</a>. These developments have all but stymied hopes for a negotiated end to the conflict in the foreseeable future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reflections-on-hope-during-unprecedented-violence-in-the-israel-hamas-war-215393">Reflections on hope during unprecedented violence in the Israel-Hamas war</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Palestinian despair</h2>
<p>After decades of oppression, the sense of hopelessness among Palestinians has reached a peak, aggravated by the realities on the ground:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a continued illegal expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and fears of wholesale <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/13/mahmoud-abbas-allies-fear-israel-government-destroy-palestinian-authority">annexation</a> of Palestinian lands</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestine-settler-bedouin-displacement-violence-un-108e11712310b5ea099dbded7be8effb">worsening</a> Jewish settler violence, aided at times, or not prevented by, Israel’s security forces </p></li>
<li><p>a <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/as-israel-bombards-gaza-palestinians-attempt-to-flee-only-to-discover-nowhere-is-safe">suffocating 16-year blockade</a> of Gaza following Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from the strip, interspersed with bouts of violence between Israel and Hamas or Islamic Jihad, with civilians as the main victims</p></li>
<li><p>diminishing prospects for an independent Palestinian state.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Consequently, 2023 has seen a significant rise in violent clashes between Israelis and Palestinians, mostly in the West Bank, but also in Gaza and inside Israel.</p>
<p>This was the situation on the eve of Hamas’ horrendous attack on southern Israel on October 7. The savage massacres of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestinians">at least 1,400 Israeli civilians</a>, including whole families, women, children, babies and the elderly – in addition to the kidnapping of an estimated 200 more civilians – shocked the world. It brought an instantaneous Israeli declaration of war against Hamas. </p>
<p>The first 11 days of Israeli bombardments of the Gaza Strip have left more than <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67133803">3,000 Palestinians dead</a> – mostly civilians. Many thousands have been wounded. These numbers will continue to grow with no end in sight to the terrible carnage.</p>
<h2>Little empathy across fences</h2>
<p>Israeli historian <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dtdlWLPT7o&t=22s">Yuval Noah Harari</a> has noted that while nations can become at once victims and perpetrators of violence, such situations can be psychologically difficult to cope with.</p>
<p>Indeed, once we choose to support a side in a conflict, we may go to great lengths to defend its actions. New information, processed through our filters and conditioned responses, can be used to challenge, or cast doubt, on any claim made by the other side. The more emotionally invested we become in the cause, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1754073911421375?icid=int.sj-abstract.citing-articles.29">the harder it is for us to empathise</a> with the suffering experienced across the fence.</p>
<p>Over the past days, heated debates and protests around the world have demonstrated this “empathy deficit” in action. On one side, many supporters of the pro-Palestinian camp, exasperated by the rapid increase in casualties and deteriorating conditions in Gaza, have seemed <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/erin-molan-clashes-with-propalestinian-activist-dr-randa-abdelfattah-over-israelhamas-conflict/news-story/5a93a3612062afeb7bb5bd9f0a8e64a5">reluctant</a> to extend empathy to Israeli victims. </p>
<p>Across the divide, traumatised supporters of Israel have <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/more-msnbc-madness/">reacted furiously</a> to any attempt to draw lines or parallels between the Hamas attack and Israel’s mistreatment of Palestinians.</p>
<h2>Saying ‘no’ to any violence against civilians</h2>
<p>Free Palestine supporters have often been <a href="https://thearabweekly.com/some-palestinians-quietly-question-rationale-hamas-moves">reluctant</a> in the past to publicly criticise Hamas. For those who live in the occupied territories, fear may have been a factor. Another possible reason could have been the belief that disparaging groups like Hamas would undermine the cohesiveness and solidarity of their camp, and thus, play into the hands of Israel.</p>
<p>A question for the Palestinians to ask themselves, though, is whether the campaign is inflicting greater damage on its cause, both morally and practically, by not distancing itself more categorically from violent groups, like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who target civilians. This question seems all the more relevant in the aftermath of October 7 and the current situation in Gaza.</p>
<p>By provoking Israel and retreating to hide behind its own civilian population as human shields – with full knowledge of what Israel’s response would be – Hamas demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice thousands of Gazans in the hope of raising the world’s anger against Israel. </p>
<p>This highly immoral and cruel strategy seems to have worked only partially so far. A sharp increase in civilian casualties following an expected ground incursion by Israel, however, may lead to further shifts in international opinion.</p>
<h2>Ending the occupation</h2>
<p>Decades of Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, meanwhile, have inflicted <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2017/06/israel-occupation-50-years-of-dispossession/">immeasurable hurt and suffering</a> on the Palestinian people. The occupation has also caused significant <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/9683">damage</a> to Israel’s <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/9683/chapter-abstract/156826168?redirectedFrom=fulltext">social fabric</a>, cohesion, economy, international standing, security, moral stature and more. The occupation should end, and the sooner the better.</p>
<p>The question is how.</p>
<p>The challenges, already vexing before Hamas’ attack, have become immeasurably greater. Would Israelis be willing to risk having a Hamas-run Palestinian state not just in Gaza, but potentially one day in the West Bank, as well, just 10 kilometres from Tel Aviv? </p>
<p>Many foreign governments have been formulating their policies on the conflict with the aim of minimising potential harm to their diplomatic, geo-strategic or economic interests. The world has lost hope in the viability of proposed solutions currently on the table. Global attention is also short. As soon as one cycle of violence ends, the world’s focus <a href="https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/so-now-what-the-war-in-gaza-and-the-future-of-the-conflict-in-israel-palestine/">will drift away from Israel-Palestine</a> to the next crisis.</p>
<p>Many Western countries, including Australia, continue to profess support for the Palestinians’ right to a state, but without formally <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/occupied-palestinian-territories#:%7E:text=Political%2520information,security%252C%2520within%2520internationally%2520recognised%2520borders.">recognising such a state</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gareth-evans-the-case-for-recognising-palestine-207624">Gareth Evans: the case for recognising Palestine</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This recognition, the argument goes, should be made as part of the negotiations over a two-state solution - one for Israelis and the other for Palestinians. However, as meaningful negotiations have not been carried out for years, how helpful, really, is such a policy for advancing a resolution to the conflict? </p>
<p>Recognition of West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital could and should go hand-in-hand with formal recognition of a Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital.</p>
<p>Perhaps the concern and passion currently being manifested by supporters of the two sides could lead this time to more effective action. </p>
<p>Those who care about Palestine should denounce terror, cruelty and violence against civilians, and put more pressure on their governments to support an end to the Israeli occupation in return for more viable solutions for Israel’s legitimate security needs. Those who are concerned about Israel should do the same.</p>
<p>There are no easy solutions to the conflict, but military ones won’t do anymore. Violence only begets more violence. It has to stop.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215814/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eyal Mayroz is a former counterterrorism expert with the Israeli Defence Forces from 1984-1988.</span></em></p>The concern and passion currently being manifested by supporters of the two sides could lead this time to more effective action.Eyal Mayroz, Senior Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157832023-10-17T20:29:25Z2023-10-17T20:29:25ZHow women in Israel and Palestine are pushing for peace — together<p>On Oct. 4, 2023, just days before the Hamas attacks on Israel and the retaliatory Israeli aerial bombardment and siege on Gaza, thousands of Israeli and Palestinian feminist peace activists <a href="https://www.womenwagepeace.org.il/en/joint-event-of-women-wage-peace-and-women-of-the-sun/">gathered in Jerusalem and near the Dead Sea</a>. </p>
<p>Representing Israeli-based Women Wage Peace and Palestinian-based Women of the Sun, this feminist peace coalition called on political leaders to negotiate an end to the bloodshed and resolve the conflict between Israel and Palestine.</p>
<p>Three days later, Hamas militants attacked Israeli communities along the Gaza border, killing more than 1,300 people and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hostages-israel-hamas-war-what-to-know-406920c384818fa4fe3525327adf3f50">kidnapping as many as 190, according to Israeli officials</a>. </p>
<p>Israel has responded with an all-out siege of Gaza, cutting off power, water and food and initiating a punishing aerial bombardment that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-west-bank-death-toll-reaches-2383-palestinians-ministry-2023-10-15/">has killed hundreds of Gazans and displaced countless others</a>. A massive Israeli military ground invasion appears likely, but there is nowhere for more than two million Palestinians to flee in a territory under siege.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-seems-poised-for-a-massive-invasion-of-gaza-rather-than-prolonged-attrition-215584">Israel seems poised for a massive invasion of Gaza rather than prolonged attrition</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Difficult statement</h2>
<p>Following the Hamas attack, Women Wage Peace posted an image of a bloodied dove on their social media feed.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1713486329026113996"}"></div></p>
<p>A week later, the movement issued a full statement on the rapid escalation of violence in Gaza:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Every mother, Jewish and Arab, gives birth to her children to see them grow and flourish and not to bury them. That’s why, even today, amid the pain and the feeling that the belief in peace has collapsed, we extend a hand in peace to the mothers of Gaza and the West Bank.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This was undoubtedly a difficult statement to write through their grief and anguish. Veteran Canadian-Israeli activist Vivian Silver, a founding member of Women Wage Peace, is among those Israelis presumed kidnapped or murdered in the Hamas attack. And today, Palestinians struggle to stay alive under Israel’s campaign of collective punishment in Gaza.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1711302966786007396"}"></div></p>
<p>But this statement of cross-community solidarity — steadfastly insisting on peace in the face of war — is emblematic of the power and resolve of feminist anti-war collective action.</p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.womenwagepeace.org.il/en/">Women Wage Peace</a> and <a href="https://womensun.org/">Women of the Sun</a> were founded after the 2014 Gaza War, a 50-day conflict that caused mass displacement and injury and left more than 2,250 Palestinians dead. That included more than 550 children, according to the <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/2014-gaza-conflict">United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA</a>).</p>
<p>In 2016, Women Wage Peace organized a mass March of Hope — which included 30,000 people in Israel and 3,000 Palestinians from the West Bank — carrying a message of peace in the wake of violence and death. </p>
<p>Women of the Sun was founded in Bethlehem by Palestinians living under occupation to empower Palestinian women and call for peace. Today, the partnership between the two organizations is the result of earlier iterations of women-led peace activism throughout the conflict. </p>
<h2>Other peace movements</h2>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://womeninblack.org/">Women in Black movement</a>, forged during the early years of the first Palestinian uprising in the late 1980s, brought together Israeli peace activists in Jerusalem to hold weekly vigils carrying signs that simply read “End the occupation.” </p>
<p>The movement went on to inspire similar vigils in Israel and cities worldwide. The global <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/378570">Women in Black movement has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize</a> and maintains an active network today.</p>
<p>Similarly, in the mid-1990s, Palestinian and Israeli feminists formed a feminist peace initiative called the Jerusalem Link following the Oslo peace process, initiated in 1993. <a href="https://batshalom.org/">Jerusalem Link</a> brought together Israeli women affiliated with the women-led Bat Shalom peace movement and Palestinian women affiliated with the Jerusalem Centre for Women, based in East Jerusalem.</p>
<p>These are hard-fought feminist peace movements that are difficult to sustain amid occupation and war. </p>
<p>I once interviewed Palestinian and Israeli peace activists representing Women in Black and the Jerusalem Link while researching feminist peace communities in Israel and the occupied West Bank in the mid-2000s. </p>
<p>I was buoyed by the solidarity and careful dialogue women developed with each other but also dismayed by how difficult it was to maintain joint action as construction on a new Israeli wall began to choke off the West Bank and Israeli settlements expanded through the occupied territory. </p>
<p>The joint Women Wage Peace-Women of the Sun initiative is another call for peace. The international community — including states that claim to have a feminist foreign policy, like Canada — should elevate their voices.</p>
<h2>Entrenching divisions</h2>
<p>But when political leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cast Palestinian solidarity demonstrations as “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/trudeau-condemns-glorification-violence-protests-after-hamas-attacked-israel-2023-10-10/">a glorification of violence</a>,” it entrenches the very kinds of divisions that Israeli and Palestinian people are working to overcome every day.</p>
<p>Trudeau’s portrayal of demonstrations as celebrations of Hamas violence was similar to the actions of London police, who criminalized pro-Palestinian protesters, and total bans <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/14/tens-of-thousands-rally-around-the-world-in-support-of-israel-and-palestinians">in France and Germany</a> of demonstrations of Palestinian solidarity.</p>
<p><a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/oslo">The 1993 Oslo peace accords</a> introduced the “two-state solution” and initiated a “peace process,” calling for Palestinian self-government and promising Palestinian political autonomy. But elections held under an intensifying occupation and limited autonomy without sovereignty don’t amount to a Palestinian state.</p>
<p>In 2000, the <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/what-we-do/peace-and-security/un-security-council#:%7E:text=In%202000%2C%20the%20UN%20Security,of%20the%20Security%20Council's%20work.">UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security</a> mandated the inclusion of women’s participation in conflict resolution and peace-building, including support of local women’s peace initiatives. </p>
<p>This month, the UN celebrates the 23rd anniversary of the resolution. Canada is set to release its third National Action Plan on the resolution soon as part of its ostensible commitment to a national feminist foreign policy.</p>
<h2>Resolution worthless?</h2>
<p>As the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, Fionnuala Ní Aoláin, outgoing UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and Counter-Terrorism, <a href="https://www.buzzsprout.com/1819038/9066876">remarked</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We’ve had 20 years plus of the Women, Peace and Security agenda. And if that agenda doesn’t mean something now, it’s worthless.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The peace community is awaiting news of Silver, the missing Women Wage Peace activist. </p>
<p>Speaking with the BBC, her son Yonatan Ziegen imagines what his mother would say to the world: “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67090491">This is the outcome of war. Of not striving for peace, and this is what happens</a>.” Today, Palestinians in Gaza are living this reality following Israel’s warning to evacuate.</p>
<p>If our national commitment to women, peace and security and our feminist foreign policy means anything at all, we must stand together for human rights and justice and endeavour to elevate the many voices of solidarity and peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siobhan Byrne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The joint Women Wage Peace-Women of the Sun initiative unites Israeli and Palestinian women calling for peace. The international community should elevate their voices.Siobhan Byrne, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Institute for Intersectionality Studies, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133402023-10-04T12:33:07Z2023-10-04T12:33:07ZThe Nobel Peace Prize offers no guarantee its winners actually create peace, or make it last<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551816/original/file-20231003-21-46u90x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1091%2C0%2C71%2C233&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Norwegian Nobel Committee is set to announce its annual winner for the peace prize on Friday, Oct. 6, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/plaque-depicting-alfred-nobel-at-the-nobel-peace-prize-news-photo/83979203?adppopup=true">Chris Jackson/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Norwegian Nobel Committee is <a href="https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/presse/arrangementer/accreditation-announcement-nobel-peace-prize-2023?instance=0">set to announce</a> the recipient of the annual Nobel Peace Prize on Oct. 6, 2023, drawing from a pool of 351 nominees. </p>
<p>Environmental activist Greta Thunberg and Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelenskyy <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/how-is-nobel-peace-prize-decided-2023-09-29/">are reportedly two of the nominees</a>, among political dissidents, leaders and human rights activists who are up for the prize. The winner will receive a medal, US$994,000 and global recognition.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://www.sandiego.edu/peace/about/biography.php?profile_id=2091">worked in the peace-building field</a> for over 20 years to support societies as they work to prevent violence and end wars. Each year, I think I should look forward to this moment, when a champion of peace is celebrated on the world stage. But given the track record of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, I always feel some dread before the peace prize announcement. Will the award celebrate a true peace builder, or a politician that just happened to sign a peace agreement? Will it celebrate a true and historic achievement, or what happens to be in the newspaper right now? </p>
<h2>A mixed history</h2>
<p>Admittedly, the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/about/the-norwegian-nobel-committee/">Norwegian Nobel Committee</a> – made up of five Norwegians, mostly former politicians, whom the Norwegian parliament appoints for a six-year term – has made some great peace prize selections over the years. </p>
<p>South African politician Nelson Mandela, for example, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1993/summary/#">won the prize</a> in 1993 for his work to help end apartheid.</p>
<p>And Leymah Gbowee, an activist who helped bring peace to Liberia, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2011/gbowee/facts/">won the award</a> in 2011, alongside former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Yemeni women’s rights activist Tawakkul Karman.</p>
<p>Gbowee brought Christian and Muslim women together to end Liberia’s devastating 14-year civil war by using creative tactics – <a href="https://qz.com/958346/history-shows-that-sex-strikes-are-a-surprisingly-effective-strategy-for-political-change">including a sex strike</a>, in which Liberian women promised to withhold sex from their husbands until a peace agreement was signed. </p>
<p>Despite the prize’s mixed track record – and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/end-nobel-peace-prize/616300/">despite calls by some to stop giving the award</a> – I think the Nobel Peace Prize should continue. War remains one of humankind’s greatest problems, and peace is still a human achievement worth celebrating.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Leymah Gbowee wears a white shirt and marches with a long line of women, also wearing white." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551809/original/file-20231003-25-gozy93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leymah Gbowee, who was a joint Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2011, marches with women’s rights activists to pray for peace in Monrovia, Liberia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/liberias-joint-nobel-peace-prize-2011-leymah-gbowee-and-news-photo/1250772202?adppopup=true">Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The prize can be off-mark</h2>
<p>The Nobel Committee, in my view, does not always give the peace prize to people who actually deserve the recognition. And the prize is not a precursor to peace actually happening, or lasting. </p>
<p>Some previous awardees are head-scratchers, for peace experts and casual observers and recipients alike. For example, former President Barack Obama said that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2009/10/09/113677764/obama-surprised-at-winning-nobel-peace-prize">he was even surprised by the award</a> when he won it in 2009.</p>
<p>The committee gave him the award “based on his extraordinary efforts to <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2009/press-release/">strengthen international diplomacy</a> and cooperation between peoples.” However, Obama had been in office for less than a year when he got the prize, which is likely not enough time to do either of these things.</p>
<p>Geir Lundestad, a former secretary of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee, wrote in his 2019 memoir that he had hoped the award “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34277960">would strengthen Mr. Obama</a>” to pursue nuclear disarmament, but in the end he said that he regretted giving Obama the award. </p>
<p>Others selections, such as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, have proved embarrassing in hindsight. </p>
<p>Just one year after winning the award in 2019, Abiy ordered a large-scale military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ethiopia">a controversial political party</a> that represents the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia. </p>
<p>The war between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front resulted in tens of thousands of civilian deaths before it ended in November 2022. A <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-united-nations-africa-ethiopia-eritrea-dcb992b8389069490c8b44357500cabe">United Nations investigation</a> found in 2022 that all sides in the conflict have committed <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.shtml">war crimes</a> against civilians.</p>
<p>Berit Reiss-Andersen, the chair of the Nobel award committee, later said in 2022 that Ahmed “has a special responsibility to end the conflict and contribute to peace.” </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, such statements encouraging peace – alongside the Nobel Prize itself – have had little effect on how prize winners act. The factors that drive war or peace are complex and are unlikely to be significantly influenced by an annual award given in Norway.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A picture of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali is on display at the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, alongside other framed photos of people in a dark room with blue lighting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551815/original/file-20231003-19-ful84d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A photo of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is on display at the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, Norway, recognizing winners of the Nobel Peace Prize.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/picture-of-the-2019-nobel-peace-prize-laureate-ethiopian-news-photo/1175337675?adppopup=true">Stan Lysberg Solum/NTB Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Peace is long term</h2>
<p>Other Nobel awarding committees seem to understand that it takes a significant amount of time to judge whether an achievement truly merits the prize.</p>
<p>Both physicists and economists wait an average of 23 years to <a href="https://www.nature.com/nature-index/news/chemistry-fastest-path-nobel-prize">receive an award</a> after they achieve their award-winning work. </p>
<p>In contrast, American diplomat Henry Kissinger won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1973 for negotiating a <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/cease-fire-goes-into-effect">cease-fire in Vietnam that same year</a>. The cease-fire began to falter almost immediately, and Saigon, the capital of South Vietnam, fell to the North Vietnamese army in May 1975. Kissinger then unsuccessfully tried to return the prize, noting that <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/world/kissinger-nobel-peace-prize-vietnam-war-b2261492.html">“peace we sought through negotiations has been overturned by force</a>.”</p>
<p>Similarly, the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli political leaders Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin won the peace prize in 1994, one year after they signed the <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/israelopt-osloaccord93">Oslo Accords,</a> a series of agreements that set up Palestinian self-governance for the West Bank and Gaza. But by 2000, Palestinians had launched the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Israel/The-second-intifada">second intifada</a>, and widespread violence returned to the region.</p>
<p>The Nobel committee tends to award prizes to those involved in current events and doesn’t award prizes long after those events have happened. But some awards have stood the test of time, in part because they were given to individuals following long struggles.</p>
<p>Mandela, for instance, won the prize 53 years after his expulsion from university for joining a protest. This sparked <a href="https://southafrica-info.com/history/nelson-mandela-timeline/">a 53-yearlong career in activism and politics</a> that included 27 years of incarceration as a political prisoner by the government he had fought against – and later led as president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Yaser Arafat, Shimon Peres and Yitzak Rabin stand in a row and show an open book with a gold Nobel peace prize in it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551831/original/file-20231003-21-fn9thz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palestinian leader Yaser Arafat, left, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, center, and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin display their joint Nobel Peace Prizes in 1994.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-handout-from-the-government-press-office-israeli-news-photo/51663003?adppopup=true">Government Press Office via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s about peace</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel/alfred-nobels-life-and-work/">Swedish scientist Alfred Nobel</a> – the founder of the Nobel awards – said the Nobel Peace Prize should go to the person “who has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the establishment and promotion of peace congresses.” </p>
<p>The language is somewhat archaic, but the message is clear – the peace prize was designed to be about stopping war and promoting peace. </p>
<p>However, in the last 20 years, the peace prize has been awarded to those working on a variety of issues, including <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2021/summary/">freedom of expression</a>, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2014/summary/">children’s education</a> and <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2007/summary/">climate change</a>.</p>
<p>All of these are important issues that require more support and recognition – but it is not the case that freedom of expression or climate change adaptation directly leads to peace.</p>
<p>In my view, there are more than enough problems and deadly conflicts in the world whose solutions merit the award of the Nobel Peace Prize as a reflection of its original intent – to acknowledge attempts aimed at ending the scourge of war and building a sustainable peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nobel Peace Prize has recognized some legendary leaders and peace activists, but it has a mixed track record of recognizing people who actually deserve the prize.Andrew Blum, Executive Director and Professor of Practice at Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace, University of San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2128152023-10-03T19:35:52Z2023-10-03T19:35:52ZBook review: African thinkers analyse some of the big issues of our time - race, belonging and identity<p>The subjects of race, identity and belonging are often fraught with contention and uneasiness. Who are you? Who belongs? Who is native, or indigenous to a place? These perennial questions arise around the world.</p>
<p>They are the subject of the book <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/9783031387968">The Paradox(es) of Diasporic Identity, Race and Belonging</a>, edited by <a href="https://scholar.google.co.jp/citations?user=EEyB8sMAAAAJ&hl=en">Benjamin Maiangwa</a>, a political scientist at Lakehead University in Canada. </p>
<p>The contributors are academics, mostly early career scholars and doctoral candidates in African and North American universities. They study genocide, peace and conflict, gender, decolonial practices, identity, race and war. </p>
<p>Unavoidably, questions that defy convenient answers pervade the reflections and analyses in the book. </p>
<p>In my own work as <a href="https://www.mtroyal.ca/ProgramsCourses/FacultiesSchoolsCentres/Arts/Departments/EnglishLanguagesCultures/FacultyStaff/Ademola-Adesola.htm">a scholar</a> of African literature with an interest in the subjects of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10402659.2017.1344526">conflict</a>, childhood and identity, I underscore the relevance of these questions. </p>
<p>The Paradox(es) of Diasporic Identity, Race and Belonging assembles voices that urge us to think more critically about how the politics of race and identity hampers healthy interrelations among people.</p>
<p>In a world increasingly divided by supremacist ideologies, the insights in this collection of essays are highly relevant. </p>
<h2>What the book’s about</h2>
<p>The contributors to the book use a variety of forms of writing. Some of the essays are autobiograpical; some are literary criticism; others scholarly analyses. They re-examine familiar but controversial concepts. </p>
<p>Among them are ideas about naming, indigeneity, land, citizenship, identitarian disparity, diasporic (un)being, immigration and migration, and the political economy of (un)belonging. These are topical ideas that predominate in discourses on nationalism, ethnicity and nation states. Their engagement in this collection helps us to further appreciate how unfixed and complex they are; they are never amenable to any easy analysis. </p>
<p>The volume is structured into three parts: Identity, Coloniality, and Home; Diaspora, Race, and Immigration; and Belonging: Cross-Cutting Issues. Each section has an introduction, a conversation among four of the contributors, an epilogue and an afterword.</p>
<p>This layout attests to the careful editing of the whole. There is an organic flow of engagement with ideas from one chapter to the next. Yet no chapter’s unique argument is overshadowed by another’s. </p>
<h2>Critical probing and analysis</h2>
<p>The chapters inspired by personal experiences do as much critical probing as those framed by hardcore analyses. </p>
<p>The contributions don’t sound jointly rehearsed, but represent a form of dialogue. Readers will find a kaleidoscope of interrelated but distinct compelling arguments on matters of race, identity and belonging, and the violent and paradoxical patterns they take in the <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520204355/on-the-postcolony">postcolony</a>. This is a notion that is concerned with a particular historical course involving societies that have latterly experienced colonialism, as theorised by the Cameroonian historian and political theorist <a href="https://wiser.wits.ac.za/people/achille-mbembe">Achille Mbembe</a>. </p>
<p>As is customary in volumes of this kind, the opening chapter comes from the editor. He welcomes readers with questions that invite them to ruminate on place and identity construction and the way it determines relations. </p>
<p>Such questions, which reverberate throughout the volume, are “What is home? What creates the feeling of belonging or (dis)connection to a place/space or other people? Is home a place, a feeling, other people, or an idea? Is it a destination or a spiritual entity or experience? Who am I in this political space?” </p>
<p>For the reader who has taken their identity for granted thus far, such questions can be jarring and unnerving. They can also provoke deep thoughts. </p>
<h2>The construction of race</h2>
<p>The chapter underlines the fact that identity is constructed and is fluid. It stresses racial signifiers – indigenous, native, white, black – as markers which mask, confuse, distress and misrepresent. </p>
<p>In some people they produce false triumphalism and superiority and in others they activate demeaning nervousness. As the chapter maintains, cultural essentialism, the product of these markers, distorts cultural facts. It also abjures a cultivation of interest in history and critical mindedness. And it is this matter of invented racial/cultural identity that the conversation in chapter 12 of the book foregrounds. </p>
<p>In that conversation, such constructs as “Black”, “African”, “White” and “immigrant” ricochet from one discussant to another. The conversation makes it clear that there is a kind of under-appreciation of the violence that minoritised people within national boundaries and diasporic spaces experience when designated in certain senses. </p>
<h2>Interconnected humanity</h2>
<p>With its other chapters, the volume broadens the frontiers of research in the intersecting areas of race, ethnicity, peace, home(lessness), gender and other forms of identity and diasporic formations. It calls for a spiritual reawakening of our identities. </p>
<p>This volume is a force in the promotion and celebration of the dignity of human differences. One can hear again and again the refrain in Maya Angelou’s timeless poem, Human Family:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://allpoetry.com/Human-Family">We are more alike, my friends,/than we are unalike</a>. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The humanistic ring in this book results from a conviction that the human or spiritual identity trumps all other ones, including institutionalised discriminatory ways of being and exclusionary policies and regulations, all of which enable the questioning of other people’s humanity. </p>
<p>The contributors’ insistence is on interconnected human relations and, to borrow from the Canadian novelist and essayist, Dionne Brand, on life – </p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Map-Door-No-Return-Belonging/dp/0385258925">It is life you must insist on</a>. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Scholars, students and general readers interested in migration studies, peace and conflict studies, political science, literary studies, African studies, international relations, gender studies, sociology and history will find this work an enlightening resource.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ademola Adesola does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The book makes invaluable contributions to subjects of race, identity and belonging and how they shape human interrelations.Ademola Adesola, Assistant Professor, Mount Royal UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133302023-09-20T12:47:01Z2023-09-20T12:47:01ZAmericans do talk about peace − just not the same way people do in other countries<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549141/original/file-20230919-29-46yjz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children wave peace doves at a concert for peace in Bogota, Colombia, in August 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/choir-made-up-of-more-than-10000-children-wave-peace-doves-news-photo/1419832116?adppopup=true">Chepa Beltran/Long Visual Press/Universal Images Group via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Americans don’t talk much about peace. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/lsi.2022.94">it turns out</a> they care about it a lot – they just don’t talk about it the way people who have experienced war or civil conflict do. </p>
<p>When public opinion polls in the U.S. ask people about peace, it’s either in the context of <a href="https://www.thearda.com/data-archive?fid=GSSPANEL2">religion</a> or <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/245705/americans-higher-hopes-prosperity-peace-2019.aspx">world peace</a>.</p>
<p>Instead of using the word peace, Americans are more likely to say that they care deeply about safety and security and issues like <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/02/06/economy-remains-the-publics-top-policy-priority-covid-19-concerns-decline-again/">terrorism, crime, illegal drugs and immigration</a>. </p>
<p>But they still care about the same things people in places that have faced war are focused on. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wear face masks and hold large yellow and white peace signs on a city street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549142/original/file-20230919-15-3xgj0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protestors hold peace signs in support of Black Lives Matter in July 2020 in Oakland, Calif.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protesters-hold-peace-signs-in-support-of-black-lives-news-photo/1258684586?adppopup=true">Natasha Moustache/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is peace?</h2>
<p><a href="https://sps.columbia.edu/faculty-staff/peter-dixon-phd">We are</a> <a href="https://www.scu.edu/cas/political-science/faculty--staff/fiorella-vera-adrianzen/">social scientists</a> who are part of a <a href="https://www.everydaypeaceindicators.org/team">network of peace and conflict</a> <a href="https://www.scu.edu/cas/political-science/faculty--staff/naomi-levy/">researchers </a> and <a href="https://possibilitylab.berkeley.edu/">community-engaged</a> <a href="https://gspp.berkeley.edu/research-and-impact/faculty/amy-e-lerman">scholars</a> at several universities. We and our other colleagues have spent a lot of time talking with different communities that have experienced war, including in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jhuman/huac030">Colombia</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17502977.2020.1812893">Afghanistan</a> and <a href="https://www.everydaypeaceindicators.org/_files/ugd/849039_a2d4c66b63cc4e67815a6b736cc42cd5.pdf">Bosnia and Herzegovina</a>, about what <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-photography-can-build-peace-and-justice-in-war-torn-communities-166143">peace looks like</a> to them.</p>
<p>Peace is hard to define. In the dictionary, it’s equated with tranquility or the absence of war. We see it as broader. Peace is the ability for people to live in harmony with themselves and with each other. In practice, however, that can mean <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395715622967">many different things</a> to different people. </p>
<p><a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/everyday-peace-9780197563397?cc=us&lang=en&">We know</a> that <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/reclaiming-everyday-peace/BEB6532292D692933AABC68EFFF9ACB3">people who directly experience conflict</a> and violence tend to have very broad, but also nuanced, definitions of peace. </p>
<p>In Colombia, for example, many communities told us they felt at peace when they had the infrastructure necessary to supply basic needs, like clean water, or when they could actively participate in regular social gatherings. In Bosnia, residents highlighted the ability to use public spaces, including rebuilt ruins from the war, as well as the presence of more day-to-day amenities like streetlights and parking.</p>
<p>But until a recent project in Oakland, California, we weren’t thinking about our work in America as also being about peace. </p>
<p>Since 2021, we’ve been working with six community organizations in Oakland to understand how people define and experience safety and well-being in their everyday lives. As it turns out, these concepts helped us get at how Americans, who have not experienced war like the people in other regions we’ve worked with, might also understand peace.</p>
<h2>Re-imagining safety</h2>
<p>Our research’s focus on safety was inspired by a number of <a href="https://www.nlc.org/post/2021/02/16/nlc-assembles-task-force-of-local-leaders-to-reimagine-public-safety-in-communities-across-the-u-s/">cities and towns</a>, like <a href="https://www.columbus.gov/reimaginesafety/">Columbus, Ohio</a>, and <a href="https://www.austintexas.gov/publicsafety">Austin, Texas</a>, that have launched projects to reform how public safety is conceived of and protected following the widespread <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html">Black Lives Matter protests</a> in 2020. </p>
<p>Oakland has undergone a similar process of asking residents to help their local government <a href="https://www.oaklandca.gov/topics/reimagining-public-safety">rethink what safety</a> means. And, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-voters-rejected-plans-to-replace-the-minneapolis-police-department-and-whats-next-for-policing-reform-171183">other cities</a>, Oakland residents have had an intense <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/The-Oakland-Police-Department-claims-it-is-16386039.php">debate over the police department</a> and how the government should reform its approach to crime. </p>
<p>We spoke to over 500 residents across parts of Oakland that have been especially hard hit by crime and violence and who live in areas that have historically been both overpoliced and underserved with public resources. </p>
<p>We asked questions like, “What does safety or the lack of safety look like here,” and “What are some signs that the community is doing well or not doing well?”</p>
<p>These conversations covered a lot of ground – ground that was similar to other conversations we’ve had about peace with people who live in conflict zones or countries with long histories of war.</p>
<p>Some Oakland residents spoke about how kids are desensitized to gunshots and violence or are arrested or kicked out of their homes. We heard that these kids and teenagers ultimately lose sight of how their lives – and the lives of others – have value.</p>
<p>High school students also reflected on the prevalence of guns, shootings and gangs in their lives. As one told us, “I want to go back” to a more innocent time, when “I didn’t know nothing about any of this.”</p>
<p>But just as we know that violence and security are only two aspects of people’s understandings of peace, the same is true of safety. The police – and even crime – are just two aspects of how communities think about safety in their everyday lives. They also think about economic opportunities, public space and social connections.</p>
<p>We heard about how, when kids have basic life skills and job skills training, or have mentors and role models, this can give them choices that are alternatives to criminal activity and help them invest back in their communities.</p>
<p>We heard about block parties and <a href="https://www.townnights.org/">town nights</a>, which inspire people of different races and ethnicities to look out for each other and build trust with their neighbors. “By us, for us,” as one resident put it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The back of a man flashing two peace signs with his hands is seen on a city street, with many other people walking past him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549145/original/file-20230919-25-r870wu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man flashes the peace sign as protesters march during an Occupy Oakland protest in November 2011 in Oakland, Calif.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-flashes-the-peace-sign-as-thousands-of-protestors-march-news-photo/131201340?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From safety to peace</h2>
<p>The United Nations marks the annual <a href="https://www.un.org/en/observances/international-day-peace">International Day of Peace</a> on Sept. 21, 2023. </p>
<p>In general, the U.S. does not widely recognize or celebrate global holidays like these, including <a href="https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/america-started-international-womens-day-so-why-don-t-we-celebrate-it-50b10ec7829e">International Women’s Day</a> or <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/30/1095729592/what-is-may-day-history">International Labor Day </a>. </p>
<p>But, like peace, safety is about far more than reducing violence. It’s being able to trust that police <a href="https://law.yale.edu/yls-today/news/whats-next-policing">have communities’ interests in mind</a> and knowing that residents will receive fair treatment in the courts. </p>
<p>It’s also being able to breathe clean air and access work and educational opportunities. It’s about being able to openly share past trauma, feel loved and connected, and so much more.</p>
<p>This all has important implications for what Americans want – and what they actually get – from their local governments. When policymakers define safety as the absence of violence and benchmark it primarily against metrics like <a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-say-crime-is-on-the-rise-what-is-the-crime-rate-and-what-does-it-mean-192900">crime statistics</a>, they limit the kinds of policies that cities and their residents can look to. </p>
<p>Typically, the main policy responses in the U.S. to crime and violence have centered on policing and incarceration.</p>
<p>In contrast, our conversations across Oakland suggest that communities are already using different frameworks and language to assess safety. These in turn offer up a more holistic set of potential interventions. What, we might ask, would city leaders focus on if they were evaluating the success of public safety reforms by whether children are playing outside in the park, or whether people know the names of their neighbors?</p>
<p>Building safety in the U.S. is more akin to building peace internationally than many Americans may think. As we celebrate world peace, we think people should remember that these conversations matter here at home, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Dixon received funding for this project from Santa Clara University. He is a Board Member of Everyday Peace Indicators. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy E Lerman received funding for this project from the California Community Foundation / California 100 Initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiorella Vera-Adrianzen received funding for this project from California Community Foundation / California 100 Initiative through Santa Clara University. She is a research associate at Everyday Peace Indicators.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naomi Levy received funding for this project from the California Community Foundation / California 100 Initiative. She is a member of the Everyday Peace Indicators Board of Directors. </span></em></p>While Americans tend not to use the word “peace,” and instead opt for terms like “safety and security,” their desires and fears are not so different from what people in war-torn places express.Peter Dixon, Associate Professor of Practice, Negotiation and Conflict Resolution, Columbia UniversityAmy E Lerman, Professor of Political Science & Public Policy and Executive Director, Possibility Lab, University of California, BerkeleyFiorella Vera-Adrianzén, Political science lecturer, Santa Clara UniversityNaomi Levy, Associate Professor of Political Science, Santa Clara UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111632023-09-19T20:08:53Z2023-09-19T20:08:53ZThe Nobel Peace Prize often reveals how contentious peace can be<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-nobel-peace-prize-often-reveals-how-contentious-peace-can-be" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Leading up to the announcement of the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/">Nobel Peace Prize</a>, there is widespread speculation about who will win. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/nomination/">351 nominees</a> for the 2023 prize, 259 individuals and 92 organizations. Although the list is confidential, there is widespread speculation about who’s on it, including favourites and long shots, repeat and first-time nominees. </p>
<p>This global moment of interest in peace is important, but it doesn’t tell us much other than that peace is elusive. </p>
<p>Looking at the longer history of the Nobel Peace Prize tells us that peace takes many forms, including ending armed conflicts, resisting racial discrimination, standing up for the oppressed and caring for the vulnerable. Peace can also be political and controversial.</p>
<h2>Taking a stand against war</h2>
<p>The early recipients were usually prominent men from Europe and the United States, and their peace work took the form of preventing or ending wars. </p>
<p>The first Nobel Peace Prize was jointly awarded in 1901 to <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1901/passy/facts/">Frédéric Passy</a>, a French economist and politician who founded the French Peace Society and organized a peace congress in 1878. American president <a href="https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/laureates/1906">Theodore Roosevelt</a> received the 1906 prize for “his role in bringing to an end the bloody war recently waged between two of the world’s great powers, Japan and Russia.”</p>
<p>Over time, the list of laureates has expanded to include women and non-elites from all over the world. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Two black-and-white photos of smiling women." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548178/original/file-20230913-21-waipff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548178/original/file-20230913-21-waipff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548178/original/file-20230913-21-waipff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548178/original/file-20230913-21-waipff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548178/original/file-20230913-21-waipff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548178/original/file-20230913-21-waipff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548178/original/file-20230913-21-waipff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mairead Corrigan and Betty Williams.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Nobel Foundation Archive)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1976/williams/facts/">Betty Williams</a> and <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1976/corrigan/facts/">Mairead Corrigan</a> did clerical work in Belfast and became peace activists after the death of three children in an IRA-related incident. </p>
<p>Corrigan was aunt to the children; Williams witnessed their deaths. They shared the 1976 prize for launching a peace movement to end sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.</p>
<h2>Protecting people, defending human rights</h2>
<p>Humanitarian work that supports people who are in danger or vulnerable has informed the selection of peace laureates from the start of the Nobel Peace Prize. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1901/dunant/facts/">Henri Dunant</a>, a Swiss businessman who had established the International Committee of the Red Cross in 1863 to assist wounded soldiers, shared the 1901 prize with Passy. Dunant was selected because of “his humanitarian efforts to help wounded soldiers.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1922/nansen/facts/">Fridtjof Nansen</a>, the League of Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, received the award in 1922 for his work to repatriate prisoners of war after the First World War and for creating the Nansen passport for refugees. <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1979/teresa/facts/">Mother Teresa</a> won in 1979 for caring for people who were terminally ill, abandoned and destitute. </p>
<p>In 1992, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1992/tum/facts/">Rigoberta Menchú Tum</a> of Guatemala was recognized for her advocacy of Indigenous rights, social justice and “ethno-cultural reconciliation.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1509679046841737217"}"></div></p>
<p>Human rights activists have also figured prominently as laureates since the 1960s, starting with <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1964/king/facts/">Martin Luther King Jr.</a> in 1964 for “his non-violent struggle for civil rights for the Afro-American population.” </p>
<p>Other human rights laureates include <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1968/cassin/facts/">René Cassin</a> (1968), a drafter of the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/">Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a>, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1991/kyi/facts/">Aung San Suu Kyi</a> (1991) for her efforts to establish democracy and human rights in Myanmar, and <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2021/ressa/facts/">Maria Ressa</a> and <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2021/muratov/facts/">Dmitry Muratov</a> (2021) for their defence of freedom of expression. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1701505384924516364"}"></div></p>
<h2>International co-operation</h2>
<p>The prize has also recognized efforts to create internationalist attitudes and improve standards of living as essential contributions to establishing peace among nations and ensuring people live in security and with dignity.</p>
<p>American peace activist and social reformer <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1931/addams/facts/">Jane Addams</a> received the 1931 prize, at the height of the Great Depression, for her efforts to “rekindle the spirit of peace” in the United States and “the whole of mankind.”</p>
<p>U.S. President <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2009/obama/facts/">Barack Obama</a> was selected in 2009 for “his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and co-operation between people,” while <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2006/yunus/facts/">Muhammad Yunus</a>, a South Asian economist, won in 2006 for setting up a bank to provide small long-term loans to people living in poverty so that they could become financially independent.</p>
<h2>Politicizing peace</h2>
<p>But peace can become political when its advocates oppose or try to reform governments and societies that are pursuing hostile foreign relations or promote and perpetuate injustice and oppression at home. </p>
<p>Between the two world wars, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to politicians, diplomats and officials who made substantial efforts to avoid future conflict, even though they were ultimately unsuccessful.</p>
<p>That included those who supported the <a href="https://www.ungeneva.org/en/about/league-of-nations/overview">League of Nations</a> or negotiated agreements, like the 1925 <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/2021667899/">Locarno Treaties</a>, that were supposed to guarantee the borders between Germany and France and Germany and Belgium, and the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/kellogg">Kellogg-Briand Pact</a> of 1928 renouncing war as an instrument of state policy.</p>
<p>The 1964 prize to King, four years before his assassination, was a timely intervention in the American civil rights movement. The 1983 award to <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1983/walesa/facts/">Lech Walesa</a>, leader of the trade union Solidarity in Poland, made an anti-communism statement. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1035147212450410496"}"></div></p>
<h2>Controversial laureates</h2>
<p>The selection of laureates can be controversial, and several have been criticized for acts and beliefs that are inconsistent with peace. </p>
<p>There was an outcry when <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1973/kissinger/facts/">Henry Kissinger</a>, the U.S. secretary of state, received the prize for his part in negotiating a ceasefire in Vietnam. </p>
<p>Mother Teresa was also <a href="https://www.salon.com/2016/01/03/the_wests_big_lie_about_mother_teresa_her_glorification_of_suffering_instead_of_relieving_it_has_had_little_impact_on_her_glowing_reputation/">criticized for denying people in her care pain relief.</a> </p>
<p>As Myanmar’s leader, Suu Kyi <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11685977">was denounced internationally for denying the genocide of Rohingya Muslims</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/30/aung-san-suu-kyi-wont-be-stripped-of-nobel-peace-prize-despite-rohingya-crisis">The Nobel Committee explained that her prize could not be withdrawn after the fact</a>. </p>
<h2>Peace can threaten the powerful</h2>
<p>The pursuit of peace itself provokes opposition because it demands change. </p>
<p>Abolishing war limits the way governments promote national security. Authority and privilege are challenged in the face of calls to eliminate racism, empower Indigenous Peoples, respect freedom of expression and achieve socio-economic equality.</p>
<p>Even though peace might seem unobjectionable, the history of peace is a story of resistance, contesting the status quo and precarious advances.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211163/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francine McKenzie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Peace can become political when advocates oppose or try to reform governments and societies pursuing hostile foreign relations — or when these societies perpetuate injustice and oppression at home.Francine McKenzie, Professor of History, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2113622023-09-12T12:26:24Z2023-09-12T12:26:24Z30 years after Arafat-Rabin handshake, clear flaws in Oslo Accords doomed peace talks to failure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547046/original/file-20230907-29-w0u6nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C3542%2C2396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A historic handshake.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-president-bill-clinton-watches-as-the-israeli-news-photo/2666773?adppopup=true">MPI/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Sept. 13, 1993, the world watched as Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/08/06/488737544/oslo-tells-the-surprising-story-behind-a-historic-handshake">shook hands on the White House lawn</a>. It was a stunning moment. The famous handshake between adversaries marked the beginning of what became known as the <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/israelopt-osloaccord93">Oslo Accords</a>, a framework for talks between Israeli and Palestinian representatives, mediated by U.S. diplomats.</p>
<p>The idea was that through open-ended negotiations and confidence-building measures, Palestinians would eventually take control over their own affairs in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem – <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/history/">territories that Israel</a> had <a href="https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/israel-and-the-occupied-palestinian-territory/">illegally occupied following the 1967 Six-Day War</a>. </p>
<p>After an <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/pcw/97181.htm">interim period of five years</a>, the thinking went, a Palestinian state would exist side by side with Israel. And through such a two-state solution, peace between Israel and the Palestinians could be achieved.</p>
<p>Thirty years later, it is clear the Oslo Accords have achieved neither peace nor a two-state solution. So far in 2023 alone, over 200 Palestinians and nearly 30 Israelis <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/22/more-than-200-palestinians-nearly-30-israelis-killed-so-far-this-year-un">have been killed</a>. Israel has <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-swears-in-netanyahu-as-prime-minister-most-right-wing-government-in-countrys-history">the most right-wing, nationalist government</a> in its history, and the <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-06-29/ty-article-opinion/.premium/why-is-the-palestinian-authority-weak-israeli-occupation/00000189-08a0-dae1-afa9-08bd83b50000">Palestinian leadership is weak and divided</a>. There is little prospect for a return to negotiations anytime soon. </p>
<p>How did this grim reality emerge from such high hopes in 1993? Many analysts point to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhea62CPM3Q">violations of the terms of the accords</a> committed by both sides. Others blame a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/09/12/legacy-of-oslo-process-pub-52972">lack of accountability</a>, which allowed those violations to go unchecked.</p>
<p>Certainly, there is plenty of blame to go around. But as a <a href="https://menas.arizona.edu/person/maha-nassar">scholar of Palestinian history</a>, it is clear to me that the Oslo peace process failed because the framework itself was deeply flawed in three key ways.</p>
<p>First, it ignored the power imbalance between the two sides. Second, it focused on ending violence by Palestinian militant groups while overlooking <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/4/10/israeli-violence-is-the-problem">acts of violence committed by the Israeli state</a>. And third, it sought peace as the end goal, rather than justice.</p>
<p>Let’s break each one of these down.</p>
<h2>Ignoring the power imbalance</h2>
<p>The Palestinian Liberation Organization, or PLO, had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/11/15/world/plo-proclaims-palestine-to-be-an-independent-state-hints-at-recognizing-israel.html">implicitly recognized Israel</a> in 1988. But a more formal statement <a href="https://mesg.wordpress.hull.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/The-Israel-PLO-Mutual-Recognition-Agreement.pdf">was needed</a> for Israel to agree to talks. In an exchange of letters on Sept. 9, 1993, <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-205528/">Arafat wrote to Rabin</a>, “The PLO recognizes the right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security.” </p>
<p>In formally recognizing Israel’s right to exist, the PLO essentially gave up sole sovereign claims to <a href="https://imeu.org/article/quick-facts-the-palestinian-nakba">78% of the Palestinians’ historic homeland</a> that was now claimed by Israel.</p>
<p>In response, <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-205528/">Rabin wrote to Arafat</a> that Israel would “recognize the PLO as the representative of the Palestinian people.” He did not recognize the Palestinians’ right to form their own state.</p>
<p>In a “<a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-180015/">Declaration of Principles</a>,” signed by Arafat and Rabin at the White House on Sept. 13, it was stated that the aim of the talks was “the implementation of Security Council resolutions 242 (from 1967) and 338 (from 1973).” Those U.N. resolutions call on Israel to withdraw from territories it occupied in 1967. But they do not explicitly call for the establishment of a Palestinian state.</p>
<p>Since then, Israel has <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-06-15/ty-article/.highlight/half-the-west-bank-land-seized-by-israel-used-only-by-settlers-report-says/00000188-b932-d1d6-a7b9-fbf73a8a0000">expropriated nearly half</a> of the West Bank for the exclusive use of Jewish settlers, <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2016/sc12657.doc.htm">in violation of international law</a>. It also routinely <a href="https://apnews.com/article/water-climate-change-drought-occupation-israel-palestinians-30cb8949bdb45cf90ed14b6b992b5b42">siphons off</a> water from Palestinian underground aquifers for the use of the settlers, while <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/parched-israels-policy-water-deprivation-west-bank#:%7E:text=Immediately%20after%20occupying%20the%20West,Valley%2C%20for%20its%20own%20ends.">depriving</a> Palestinians access to their own water. </p>
<p>As a result of these <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/demolition-watch">and other measures</a>, life for Palestinians <a href="https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/199905_oslo_before_and_after">became worse</a> during the post-Oslo years, not better. As Palestinians lost further control over their lands, homes and resources, their ability to establish a state grew more distant.</p>
<p>Yet, by insisting that bilateral negotiations take place between a powerful state and a stateless people – rather than under the auspices of the United Nations or other international body – the Oslo framework ignored the power imbalance between Israel and the Palestinians. U.S. mediators would insist that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/06/world/albright-in-mideast-trying-to-push-israeli-palestinian-talks.html?searchResultPosition=7">both sides</a> needed to compromise. But Israel held far more military, economic and diplomatic power than the Palestinians. </p>
<p>By ignoring this power imbalance, the Oslo Accords effectively allowed Israel to continue to confiscate land and resources with no consequences. With 60% of the West Bank <a href="https://unctad.org/publication/economic-costs-israeli-occupation-palestinian-people-cost-restrictions-area-c-viewed">under Israeli control</a>, the prospects for a viable, independent Palestinian state were undermined.</p>
<h2>No end to state violence</h2>
<p>A 1994 <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/IL%20PS_940504_Agreement%20on%20the%20Gaza%20Strip%20and%20the%20Jericho%20Area%20%28Cairo%20Agreement%29.pdf">follow-up agreement stated</a>, “Both sides shall take all measures necessary in order to prevent acts of terrorism, crime and hostilities directed against each other.” It added that “the Palestinian side shall take all measures necessary to prevent such hostile acts directed against the Settlements, the infrastructure serving them and the Military Installation Area.” </p>
<p>Successive Israeli governments have interpreted “hostile acts” broadly. As a result, even Palestinians who have defended their lands through nonviolent means <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121998612">have been arrested</a>, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2010/08/activista-palestino-declarado-culpable-tribunal-militar-israeli/">imprisoned</a> and <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/civilresistance/nonviolent-resistance-in-palestine-steadfastness-creativity-and-hope/">shot at</a> by Israeli soldiers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/IL%20PS_940504_Agreement%20on%20the%20Gaza%20Strip%20and%20the%20Jericho%20Area%20%28Cairo%20Agreement%29.pdf">agreement also stated</a> that “the Israeli side shall take all measures necessary to prevent such hostile acts emanating from the Settlements and directed against Palestinians.” But it does not mention Israeli military violence against Palestinian civilians. </p>
<p>To enforce this agreement, the Palestinian Authority – an autonomous body that rules over Palestinians in the West Bank – <a href="https://www.peaceagreements.org/viewmasterdocument/983">agreed to coordinate</a> with the Israeli military over security matters. It would either arrest Palestinians whom Israel suspects of carrying out hostilities or allow Israel to enter Palestinian areas and arrest suspects themselves.</p>
<p>This coordination protects Israelis from Palestinian violence, but it does not protect Palestinians from violence by the Israeli military. Since fall 2000, the Israel military has killed <a href="https://statistics.btselem.org/en/all-fatalities/by-date-of-incident?section=overall&tab=overview">eight times</a> as many Palestinians as compared with Israelis killed by Palestinians. Half of those Palestinian victims were <a href="https://statistics.btselem.org/en/all-fatalities/by-date-of-incident?section=participation&tab=overview">not involved in hostilities</a> when they were killed, according to analysis from the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem.</p>
<p>Palestinians are also subjected to other kinds of human rights abuses from the Israeli state. These include <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-ramps-up-demolition-of-palestinian-homes-in-jerusalem">home demolitions</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/prison-israel-palestinians-administrative-detention-e4ffd1744a9692c2539a78a8d916176e">imprisonment without charge or trial</a> and <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-11-30/ty-article/.premium/israels-military-police-to-probe-alleged-abuse-of-palestinians-by-soldiers-at-checkpoint/00000184-c99a-dbba-a5fd-ddda80620000">abuse</a> <a href="https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/fact-sheet-movement-and-access-west-bank-august-2023">at checkpoints</a>. Most soldiers accused of harming Palestinians <a href="https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/files.yesh-din.org/LAW+ENFORCEMENT+AGAINST+ISRAELI+SOLDIERS+2017-2021/YeshDin+-+Data+12.22+-+English.pdf">do not face consequences</a> for their actions, according to Yesh Din, an Israeli human rights organization.</p>
<h2>Peace over justice</h2>
<p>This kind of structural violence and abuse – perpetrated by the state against marginalized groups – rarely makes headlines in Western media. Such a lack of awareness reinforces Israel’s ability to control Palestinians’ lives and further undermines the prospects for peace.</p>
<p>Yet this exclusive focus on achieving peace has, I believe, also been part of the problem. American and Israeli diplomats <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?150611-1/middle-east-peace-process">narrowly defined peace</a> as the absence of armed violence and set that as the overarching goal. They believed that if Palestinians refrained from committing acts of violence, then peace through a two-state solution could be achieved. Coverage that mirrored this perspective in the mainstream U.S. media <a href="https://www.972mag.com/new-york-times-israel-palestine/">further entrenched</a> this view. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A mural of eyes painted on a crumbling wall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graffiti on a wall of the destroyed ‘Yasser Arafat International Airport’ in the Gaza Strip.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-picture-taken-on-august-27-2023-shows-a-view-of-a-news-photo/1654263885?adppopup=true">Said Khatib/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this understanding of peace has ignored the Palestinians’ need for justice. At a minimum, justice to many Palestinians would have meant <a href="https://al-shabaka.org/memos/the-pas-revolving-door-a-key-policy-in-security-coordination/">an end to security cooperation</a> between the Palestinian Authority and Israel and the establishment of an independent, democratic Palestinian state on the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-1948-scepticism/palestinians-losing-faith-in-two-state-solution-idUKMAC13949320080512">remaining 22% of their homeland</a>. </p>
<p>But with the power imbalances enshrined in the Oslo framework, and with U.S. mediators focusing more on peace – measured by incidents of Palestinian violence over those perpetrated by the Israeli state – this was not to be.</p>
<h2>Oslo as ‘surrender’</h2>
<p>One month after the famous handshake, the <a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v15/n20/edward-said/the-morning-after">Palestinian scholar Edward Said described</a> the Oslo Accords as “an instrument of Palestinian surrender.” Recently, a group of leading political scientists <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/israel-palestine-one-state-solution">called on U.S. policymakers to abandon</a> the Oslo framework and the two-state solution altogether. They call on the U.S. to “advocate for equality, citizenship, and human rights for all Jews and Palestinians living within the single state dominated by Israel.”</p>
<p>It is, I believe, an urgent call. Life for Palestinians is getting worse, not better. A growing number of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution">international human rights organizations</a> and <a href="https://sites.google.com/view/israel-elephant-in-the-room/home?pli=1">public figures</a> describe the current reality on the ground in <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde15/5141/2022/en/">Israel-Palestine as a form of apartheid</a>.</p>
<p>Thirty years after their famous handshake, Arafat and Rabin have long since passed. It’s time to admit that the process they kick-started is also now confined to history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maha Nassar served as a 2022 Non-Resident Palestinian Fellow at the Foundation for Middle East Peace.</span></em></p>A famous gesture kick-started hopes of peace in the Middle East. But today, the idea of a two-state solution seems further away than ever before.Maha Nassar, Associate Professor in the School of Middle Eastern and North African Studies, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116502023-09-05T12:31:24Z2023-09-05T12:31:24ZI love swords, so I designed a course on how to use them to succeed in life<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544847/original/file-20230826-29838-e4gftt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C51%2C4230%2C2792&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can knowing how to handle a sword help in other areas of life?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-with-katana-black-background-royalty-free-image/185056501?phrase=samurai+sword&adppopup=true">by_nicholas/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of course:</h2>
<p>“Samurai Swordsmanship”</p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>When I was very young, I was intrigued by swords. Maybe that was a result of watching too many <a href="https://vimeo.com/1937576">sword scenes from Errol Flynn movies</a>. At any rate, the result was that when I was working on my bachelor’s degree, I began participating in European fencing, which is a style of competition using a foil – which is a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/sports/foil-sword">sword with a light, flexible blade</a> – or a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/rapier-sword">rapier</a> with a protective tip. This style of competition is very popular and can be seen in the Olympics.</p>
<p>Then I saw a gentleman demonstrate techniques and movements with a samurai sword, a Japanese katana,
and I was instantly hooked. I began training in <a href="https://www.iaido.com/Iaido.html">iaido</a> – which is the art of unsheathing and using the Japanese katana.</p>
<p>The katana is a <a href="https://katana-sword.com/blogs/katana-blog/who-invented-the-katana">sword developed during the Kamakura period</a> – from 1185 to 1333 – and it became my passion. The idea for this course came from my desire to share this passion with others.</p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<p>The most obvious subject covered in the class, which I teach at the University of Tennessee, involves the various techniques of using the sword. The techniques are from iaido and are centuries old.</p>
<p>In this course, bokken are used to practice the techniques. Bokken are wooden training tools which are used to ensure the safety of beginning practitioners. The techniques taught in this course are very close to the same techniques that the samurai trained with hundreds of years ago. But, in addition, the course delves into the mental and emotional aspects of iaido.</p>
<p>Iaido is about maintaining mental and emotional balance in the midst of turmoil. This course explores some of the strategies that enable the student to achieve that mastery over themselves. A good example of that would be the use of positive self-affirmations. For instance, if we were to look at ourselves in the mirror and think to ourselves, “I am overweight and out of shape,” we are programming ourselves to have a negative self-image. By using positive self-affirmations, we change that observation of self to, “I am working toward being in the kind of shape that I want to be in.” We are then programming ourselves to have a more positive self-image because we are improving. The self-image that we program into ourselves has a large influence on our daily interactions with the world around us. </p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>In our modern culture, people often maintain an extremely fast pace. Information and stimuli bombard us at a rate never seen before, and it can be overwhelming. Being able to maintain a sense of calm and inner peace in the midst of this maelstrom is key, and a very real challenge. Iaido is centered around achieving and maintaining that balance. </p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>The martial arts are so much more than a recreational pursuit. If used properly, lessons learned from martial arts can be applied in a peaceful, nonviolent manner every day, allowing us to achieve our true potential.</p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>Research has shown that when students process information <a href="https://www.rasmussen.edu/degrees/education/blog/types-of-learning-styles/">in different ways</a>, they are <a href="https://www.educationcorner.com/the-learning-pyramid.html">more likely</a> to <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/10129/chapter/8#118">retain the information</a>.</p>
<p>Based on that, in this class the students see the techniques performed, then they perform the techniques, and then they sketch and describe the techniques. This provides an opportunity to not only process the information multiple times but to process the information in multiple ways.</p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>At the end of this course, students should have a good foundation in samurai swordsmanship, specifically iaido.</p>
<p>Essentially, iaido is about helping students learn how to find peace and harmony within themselves and how to maintain a calm and peaceful manner when faced with a stressful situation. </p>
<p>The students will learn realistic swordsmanship as well as self-defense techniques. Also, students will receive the benefits from the physical workout as well as an appreciation for a holistic approach to a healthy lifestyle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lancing C. England Ed.S. holds a 9th Degree Black Belt in Satori-Ryu Iaido, under the instruction of Dale S. Kirby Sr., the founder. </span></em></p>A former fencer who fell in love with the samurai sword explains how learning to wield the weapon can help people stave off trouble in other areas of life.Lancing C. England, Instructor, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111292023-08-08T15:09:37Z2023-08-08T15:09:37ZKenya’s political dialogue is a welcome sign of democracy at work – if both sides understand their roles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541515/original/file-20230807-26-bhua21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Raila Odinga, the leader of the Azimio la Umoja coalition in Kenya.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Maina/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since Kenya’s presidential <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/15/william-ruto-declared-winner-of-kenya-presidential-election-amid-dispute">election in August 2022</a>, the new government has been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62631193#:%7E:text=Argues%20that%20he%20did%20not,questions%20about%20the%20tallying%20process">in conflict</a> with the opposition. </p>
<p>In democratic systems, such conflict is healthy; it can enhance governance. But it <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/07/20/kenyas-violent-protests-sabotaging-economy-president-ruto-says/">must not interfere with</a> the government’s ability to perform its constitutional functions.</p>
<p>In Kenya, the friction between the government and opposition led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/jul/21/death-toll-rises-as-kenyas-cost-of-living-protests-continue">mass protests</a> in March 2023. The <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20230320-kenyan-opposition-leader-raila-odinga-calls-for-weekly-rallies-over-cost-of-living-crisis">opposition</a> organised them <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/20/africa/kenya-cost-of-living-protests-explainer-intl/index.html#:%7E:text=A%20wave%20of%20deadly%20protests,businesses%20attacked%20and%20schools%20closed.">around</a> rising taxes and the high cost of living. </p>
<p>If carried out peacefully, political protests can <a href="https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/06/10/are-peaceful-protests-more-effective-than-violent-ones/">deepen democracy</a>. Kenya’s have often <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/7/13/deadly-anti-government-protests-roil-kenya">deteriorated into violence</a>, however. <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/police-have-killed-30-protesters-since-march-2023-amnesty-international-4309868">Heavy-handed government interventions</a> have then created even more violence. This threatens the sustainability of the country’s democratic institutions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mass-protests-in-kenya-have-a-long-and-rich-history-but-have-been-hijacked-by-the-elites-202979">Mass protests in Kenya have a long and rich history – but have been hijacked by the elites</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The opposition recently <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/29/kenya-government-and-opposition-agree-to-talks-after-protests">called off street protests</a> to engage the government in dialogue. I have <a href="https://www.weber.edu/goddard/John_Mbaku.html">studied democratisation and political economy in Africa</a> for more than two decades, and in my view, these talks are an opportunity to strengthen Kenya’s democratic systems.</p>
<p>Both the government and the opposition have a duty to work towards creating a Kenya in which all citizens can live peacefully, by the values that are important to them, and elect who they want.</p>
<p>But for this to happen, each party to the talks must understand its constitutional role. It must play its part constructively and within the law. The opposition should be a check on the exercise of government power, but it must not obstruct governance. The opposition should evaluate public policy and offer alternatives, but allow the government to formulate the national agenda. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the government must recognise the important role the opposition plays in a democratic system. An effective opposition provides the government with feedback that advances national objectives. It contributes positively to peaceful coexistence, the protection of human rights and national development.</p>
<h2>The importance of the talks</h2>
<p>The opposition suspended its call for mass protests in July 2023 to engage in <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/kalonzo-lead-azimio-team-in-talks-with-kenya-kwanza-4322554">dialogue</a> with the government. The talks will be facilitated by former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo. Opposition leader Raila Odinga wants the talks concluded in <a href="https://www.pd.co.ke/inside-politics/raila-issues-demands-to-ruto-194622/">just over seven weeks</a>.</p>
<p>Odinga’s team of five has tabled <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2023-08-03-azimio-invites-ruto-team-for-first-meeting-lists-5-issues-to-be-discussed/">five issues</a>. It wants the government to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>address the cost of living</p></li>
<li><p>reconstitute the elections agency</p></li>
<li><p>audit the 2022 poll</p></li>
<li><p>prevent state interference with political parties</p></li>
<li><p>resolve outstanding constitutional issues. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The government also brings a <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2023-08-07-ruto-sets-tone-for-kenya-kwanza-azimio-dialogue-at-bomas/">five-member team</a>. Its list includes establishing the offices of the leader of opposition and prime cabinet secretary, as well as implementing <a href="https://www.klrc.go.ke/index.php/constitution-of-kenya/112-chapter-four-the-bill-of-rights/part-2-rights-and-fundamental-freedoms/193-27-equality-and-freedom-from-discrimination#:%7E:text=(8)%20In%20addition%20to%20the,be%20of%20the%20same%20gender.">gender diversity laws</a>. President William Ruto has said he has <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2023-08-07-ruto-sets-tone-for-kenya-kwanza-azimio-dialogue-at-bomas/">no interest</a> in reopening debate on the results of the 2022 election. </p>
<p>These talks are a welcome sign of Kenya’s democracy maturing. But as the ruling party, Kenya Kwanza, <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/kalonzo-lead-azimio-team-in-talks-with-kenya-kwanza-4322554">has reminded</a> the opposition coalition, Azimio la Umoja, that the opposition’s job is to analyse government policies and offer alternatives. It is not to force its economic and political agenda on the government.</p>
<p>Regardless of what is <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/kalonzo-lead-azimio-team-in-talks-with-kenya-kwanza-4322554">on the table for discussion</a>, the dialogue should enhance governance and promote national development. </p>
<p>Parties to the talks should:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>consider ways to enhance government efficiency, accountability and productivity </p></li>
<li><p>concentrate on creating jobs, fighting inflation and helping Kenyans deal with climate change and other development challenges </p></li>
<li><p>help Kenya strengthen its democratic institutions, and promote their growth and maturity </p></li>
<li><p>provide an institutional environment within which all Kenyans, regardless of their ethnic affiliation, can live together peacefully. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Understanding the roles</h2>
<p>In emerging democracies, such as Kenya’s, a key source of conflict is the failure or inability of the government, the opposition and their supporters to understand and appreciate the roles that the constitution gives them. </p>
<p>In a functioning democratic system, the opposition is part of the governance architecture. It makes sure that the government is open, transparent and accountable to both the people and the constitution. However, it must not <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/18/kenya-braces-for-3-days-of-anti-govt-protest-all-the-details">frustrate</a> or interfere with government. </p>
<p>The government must consult and interact peacefully with all stakeholders, not just its supporters. This is critical in a country like Kenya which has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyas-politicians-continue-to-use-ethnicity-to-divide-and-rule-60-years-after-independence-207930">significant diversity</a> of people, cultures, values, languages and economic and social aspirations.</p>
<p>A misunderstanding of roles could paralyse the government and make it non-functional. </p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>The present dialogue’s function must be:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>to strengthen the government, not cripple it</p></li>
<li><p>to advance the interests of all Kenyans, not just of specific politicians or ethnic groups</p></li>
<li><p>to improve the rule of law, not to open up political spaces for the benefit of opposition leaders</p></li>
<li><p>to build the country’s democracy, not to tear it down </p></li>
<li><p>to unite Kenyans, not to divide them</p></li>
<li><p>to ensure the advancement of a peaceful and productive Kenya.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Kenya’s national leaders – both in government and opposition – must build a political system in the country that advances inclusive development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government and opposition have a duty to work towards creating a Kenya in which all citizens can live peacefully.John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102932023-08-01T14:46:56Z2023-08-01T14:46:56ZSudan needs to accept its cultural diversity: urban planning can help rebuild the country and prevent future conflict<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539757/original/file-20230727-17-efhzbn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke rises above buildings in Sudan's capital Khartoum in June 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sudan is rich in cultural, ethnic and racial diversity. The country’s <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/SD">48 million people</a> come from <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13698280500423908">56 ethnic groups, with over 595 sub-ethnic groups, speaking more than 115 languages</a>. </p>
<p>This plurality has shaped urban development patterns and the country’s socio-political landscape. </p>
<p>Take, for instance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/khartoum-the-creation-and-the-destruction-of-a-modern-african-city-205705">Khartoum</a>. The Sudanese capital <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-politique-africaine-2005-4-page-302.htm">historically</a> drew traders from different ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Each placed a <a href="https://jur.journals.ekb.eg/article_88400.html">distinctive stamp</a> on the cityscape. </p>
<p>These range from Ottoman-style Islamic architecture to the narrow alleys, small windows and colourful clothes peculiar to African ethnic groups. The city symbolises Sudan’s cultural mosaic in architecture and urban planning.</p>
<p>However, Khartoum is also a domain of <a href="https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/2020/12/02/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8E%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%8A/">ethnic and cultural division</a>.</p>
<p>This dates back to the period of the <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/religion/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/mahdist-state-mahdiyya">Mahdist state (Mahdiyya)</a>, which ruled Sudan from 1881 to 1898 and challenged the colonial ambitions of Britain and Egypt. The Mahdist state made <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Omdurman">Omdurman (Umm Durman)</a> its new capital on the western side of the River Nile, and developed the city around the <a href="https://archive.org/details/isbn_9781782821151">ethnic structure of its army</a>. </p>
<p>A colonial plan for <a href="https://repozytorium.biblos.pk.edu.pl/redo/resources/28522/file/suwFiles/HassanS_UrbanPlanning.pdf#page=3">Khartoum followed in 1910</a>, triggered by the governor-general of Sudan, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Horatio-Herbert-Kitchener-1st-Earl-Kitchener">Horatio Kitchener</a>. It had <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268280184_alywm_alalmy_ltkhtyt_almdn_althdyat_w_almalat_fy_almdn_alswdanyt">three segregated zones</a> to accommodate Europeans, elites and ordinary locals. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/khartoum-the-creation-and-the-destruction-of-a-modern-african-city-205705">Khartoum: the creation and the destruction of a modern African city</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These decades of interplay between diversity and urban planning in Sudan fostered vibrant cityscapes. But spatial segregation has continued, creating <a href="https://docs.southsudanngoforum.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/Luka-Biong-Deng-Kuol-When-Ethnic-Diversity-Becomes-a-Curse-in-Africa-The-Tale-of-Two-Sudans.pdf">socio-cultural divisions and uneven urban growth</a>. </p>
<p>Drawing on my experiences as an <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ibrahim-Bahreldin">educator, researcher and practitioner in urbanism in Sudan</a>, I argue that failure to use urban planning to manage diversity has worsened ethnic and racial divisions. It has fanned <a href="https://theconversation.com/darfur-how-historical-patterns-of-conflict-are-haunting-current-violence-144423">conflict and discontent</a> in Sudanese society.</p>
<h2>Embracing diversity</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268280184_alywm_alalmy_ltkhtyt_almdn_althdyat_w_almalat_fy_almdn_alswdanyt">Urban planning</a> is supposed to improve residents’ quality of life. It strategically organises physical spaces and land use. It optimises resources and livelihoods, and promotes social equity. </p>
<p>It holds immense potential to manage diversity and reconstruct a resilient and prosperous Sudan. </p>
<p>This isn’t to say urban planning can single-handedly resolve <a href="https://theconversation.com/sudan-crisis-explained-whats-behind-the-latest-fighting-and-how-it-fits-nations-troubled-past-203985">Sudan’s conflict</a>. Peace requires a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-makes-peace-talks-successful-the-4-factors-that-matter-206299">shared commitment</a> to silence the guns and build political stability and security. </p>
<p>Yet the way diversity is managed makes it either a virtue or a <a href="https://docs.southsudanngoforum.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/Luka-Biong-Deng-Kuol-When-Ethnic-Diversity-Becomes-a-Curse-in-Africa-The-Tale-of-Two-Sudans.pdf">curse</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, there are three avenues through which urban planning can positively manage diversity to help prevent conflict: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>by celebrating multiculturalism.</p></li>
<li><p>by boosting regional integration and resource management.</p></li>
<li><p>by ensuring effective governance and public participation in urban spaces.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What Sudan got wrong</h2>
<p>Colonial and post-independence planning practices in Sudan attempted to forge a <a href="https://www.saflii.org/za/journals/AHRLJ/2013/17.html">national identity</a>. However, this was done by <a href="https://docs.southsudanngoforum.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/Luka-Biong-Deng-Kuol-When-Ethnic-Diversity-Becomes-a-Curse-in-Africa-The-Tale-of-Two-Sudans.pdf">suppressing ethnic diversity</a>, and disintegrating cultural values and their spatial footprints. </p>
<p>After independence from Egypt and Britain in 1956, Sudan’s ruling elites rejected the demand from southern Sudan for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/federalism">a federal system</a>. This would have created a united Sudan but allowed different regions to maintain their integrity, culture and traditions. The ruling elite instead adopted an “Arab Islamic” identity to create a <a href="https://docs.southsudanngoforum.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/Luka-Biong-Deng-Kuol-When-Ethnic-Diversity-Becomes-a-Curse-in-Africa-The-Tale-of-Two-Sudans.pdf">homogeneous society</a>. </p>
<p>This was among the reasons for the eruption of the <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/humanities/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/sudanese-civil-wars">first civil war in southern Sudan in 1955</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/darfur-tracing-the-origins-of-the-regions-strife-and-suffering-131931">Darfur: tracing the origins of the region's strife and suffering</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And in Darfur, infringements of communal land ownership rights <a href="https://metropolitics.org/Land-Insecurity-in-Khartoum-When-Land-Titles-Fail-to-Protect-Against-Public.html">fuelled violent conflict</a>. This extended to <a href="https://docs.southsudanngoforum.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/Luka-Biong-Deng-Kuol-When-Ethnic-Diversity-Becomes-a-Curse-in-Africa-The-Tale-of-Two-Sudans.pdf">southern Sudan</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287221183_Urban_agriculture_facing_land_pressure_in_Greater_Khartoum_The_case_of_new_real_estate_projects_in_Tuti_and_Abu_Se'id">Khartoum</a>. </p>
<p>The Khartoum <a href="https://www.icnl.org/wp-content/uploads/Sudan_Khartoum1998.pdf">Public Order Act</a> of 1996 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50596805">repealed in 2019</a>) was another misjudgement. It <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/12/5194">discriminated against citizens</a> based on their cultural and gender identities. The public order rules were <a href="https://redress.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/report-Final.pdf#page=5">vague and open-ended</a>, leaving them open to exploitation for social control.</p>
<h2>Rebuilding a post-war Sudan</h2>
<p>Urban planning should follow the principles of economic, social and physical integration. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Economic integration ensures equal access to employment, education and resources. </p></li>
<li><p>Social integration provides affordable housing, diverse neighbourhoods and accessible social infrastructure. </p></li>
<li><p>Physical integration encourages social interaction and breaks down barriers. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These principles help create vibrant, harmonious cities that cater to the needs of diverse populations and future generations. They can be put into practice through three avenues.</p>
<p><strong>1. Celebrating multiculturalism and diversity</strong> </p>
<p>This requires <a href="https://www.cgscholar.com/bookstore/works/the-power-of-diversity?category_id=cgrn&path=cgrn%2F209%2F215">rethinking urban spaces to embrace inclusivity</a>, particularly where ethnocultural ties transcend national boundaries. Inclusive neighbourhoods, mixed-use developments and accessible public spaces promote interaction and foster belonging. Such developments help build understanding, empathy and trust among different communities, preventing community fracturing that <a href="https://theconversation.com/darfur-tracing-the-origins-of-the-regions-strife-and-suffering-131931">leads to unrest</a>. </p>
<p><strong>2. Regional integration and resource management</strong></p>
<p>Sudan has experienced <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269336771_Khartoum_2030_Towards_An_Environmentally-Sensitive_Vision_for_the_Development_of_Greater_Khartoum_Sudan">unequal urban growth and the depopulation of rural areas</a>. To address this, the country’s long-term development visions and plans should aim for equitable development. These plans should take into account marginalised regions which may have ethnic populations that extend beyond national borders. A planning vision that transcends the scope of a single nation and seeks a regional approach is indispensable. Regional integration can restructure urban spaces, mobility systems and production patterns. This would foster self-sufficiency and integration. </p>
<p>Urban planning can also address resource management concerns – such as land ownership and economic opportunities – that trigger tension and conflict. Transparent mechanisms for resource allocation can help mitigate conflict arising from scarce resources. In Sudan, this would have helped improve regional employment prospects, reducing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/sudan-created-a-paramilitary-force-to-destroy-government-threats-but-it-became-a-major-threat-itself-203974">reliance on paramilitary activities</a> for income.</p>
<p><strong>3. Effective governance and public participation</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261996322_A_Critical_Evaluation_of_Public_Participation_in_the_Sudanese_Planning_Mandates">Participatory urban planning</a> improves governance. It empowers historically marginalised groups like young people, women, rural communities, informal settlers and minorities through public engagement. This enables them to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262008475_Evaluation_of_Two_Types_of_Community_Participation_In_Development_Projects_A_Case_Study_of_The_Sudanese_Neighbourhood_of_Al-Shigla">address their grievances and secure opportunities for meaningful dialogue</a>. The process generates enthusiasm for shaping, financing and managing urban spaces. </p>
<p>Public engagement harnesses local knowledge and culture. It advocates for policy transformation to address systematic inequalities and safeguard rights. Transparent and accountable governance complements these arrangements, promoting equality and preventing tension.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210293/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ibrahim Bahreldin is a member of the Sudanese Institute of Architects and the City Planning Institute of Japan, and is registered as a professional architect and urban planner with the Sudanese Engineering Council and the Saudi Council of Engineers. He is also affiliated with the University of Khartoum in Sudan. Ibrahim does not work for, consult, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article.</span></em></p>The interplay between diversity and urban planning in Sudan has created vibrant cityscapes, but also led to segregation and division.Ibrahim Z. Bahreldin, Associate Professor of Urban & Environmental Design, King Abdulaziz University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2039462023-04-23T08:53:02Z2023-04-23T08:53:02ZChad picks a fight with Germany – what’s behind it and what the consequences are<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522150/original/file-20230420-20-k95dt2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes President of Chad's Transitional Military Council Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, in Paris, in 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gao Jing/Xinhua via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Chad recently ordered the German ambassador to the country, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/chad-expels-german-ambassador-over-impolite-attitude/a-65262678">Dr Gordon Kricke</a>, to leave within 48 hours, accusing him of disrespectful behaviour and disregard for diplomatic protocol. In retaliation, Berlin <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-expels-chads-ambassador-in-tit-for-tat-response/a-65281147">expelled</a> the Chadian ambassador to Germany. Helga Dickow, a political scientist and expert on Chad, explains the link between the diplomatic tit-for-tat and the now delayed Chadian transition to constitutional rule.</em> </p>
<h2>What are the holdups in Chad’s transition to constitutional rule?</h2>
<p>Chad has been in transition since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/idriss-deby-itno-offered-chadians-great-hope-but-ended-up-leaving-a-terrible-legacy-159443">death</a> of long-time ruler Idriss Déby Itno in April 2021 and the seizure of power by a military council led by Déby’s son, Mahamat Déby Itno.</p>
<p>In May 2021, Mahamat Déby <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-signs-of-a-true-transition-in-chad-a-year-after-idriss-debys-death-181203">promised</a> a transition to constitutional rule and free elections within 18 months. The African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU), notably France and other partners, had sanctioned the change of power in view of this promise.</p>
<p>They insisted that the 18-month transition period be respected and that Mahamat Déby not be allowed to stand in the elections. </p>
<p>The African Union’s decision was informed by <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/african-charter-democracy-elections-and-governance">section 25</a> of its Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance to which Chad is a signatory. It prohibits anyone involved in a coup d'état from standing for election. It has taken the same approach in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso.</p>
<p>However, since the so-called <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/10/chads-national-dialogue-concludes-amid-uncertainties-transition">National Dialogue </a> in September 2022 it has become clear that Mahamat Déby is planning to foist a political dynasty, something predicted by the opposition.</p>
<p>The dialogue forum was largely made up of regime supporters. <a href="https://theconversation.com/chad-is-making-a-huge-effort-to-find-peace-chadians-arent-convinced-it-will-work-189268">Important actors</a> from the opposition stayed away. Despite criticisms, the National Dialogue <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/10/chads-national-dialogue-concludes-amid-uncertainties-transition#:%7E:text=Despite%20significant%20criticism%2C%20the%20DNIS,extended%20for%20another%2024%20months.">extended</a> the transition period by 24 months and allowed Mahamat Déby to contest in the poll. </p>
<h2>Which countries are Chad’s closest allies?</h2>
<p>Despite its oil wealth, Chad is one of the <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/chad">poorest countries</a> in the world. Nevertheless it remains an important partner in a region that is crisis ridden and unstable.</p>
<p>Chad lacks the financial resources to conduct elections and is dependent on foreign donors – most notably the United Nations and the European Union. The European Union promised the transitional government support for the country’s return to constitutional order, <a href="https://international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/countries/chad_en">including the necessary financial resources</a>.</p>
<p>But, by extending the transition period and allowing Mahamat Deby to contest, the Chadian transitional authorities have not lived up to the agreement.</p>
<p>The US, France and Germany have signalled their displeasure over the transition being prolonged, the renewed postponement of the electoral process and severe human rights violations. This position is also shared by the <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/ep-plenary-military-junta-crackdown-peaceful-demonstrations-chad_en">European Parliament</a>.</p>
<h2>So, why target Germany?</h2>
<p>It was obvious that Chad’s transitional authorities had had enough of criticism from their partners. The expulsion of the German ambassador could be a warning to other embassies, especially France, to be more restrained in their criticism of Chadian politics and not to support the opposition. </p>
<p>It can also be argued that Germany was an easy target. </p>
<p>Expelling the ambassador of France would be near impossible. This is because France, Chad’s former colonial power, has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chad-deby-france-explainer-idAFKBN2C727Q">several</a> military bases in Chad. It has also been seen as a supporter of Idriss, and now, Mahamat Déby. </p>
<p>France’s support became more than visible during the funeral of Déby’s father in 2021. French President Emmanuel Macron was the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-france-is-backing-chads-new-leader-mahamat-idriss-deby/a-57316728">only</a> European head of state at the funeral, accompanied by EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borell. </p>
<p>Mahamat Déby was in Paris a few weeks ago and <a href="https://www.news360.es/belgique/2023/02/03/macron-rencontre-le-president-tchadien-lundi-a-paris/">had dinner with President Macron</a>. Little has been leaked about this meeting. </p>
<p>There aren’t many other targets for possible expulsion. The US is also Chad’s military partner. And other European countries only deployed chargés d'affaires or have no representation at all.</p>
<h2>What role is the opposition playing in Chad?</h2>
<p>In October 2022 there were <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/10/26/chad-scores-protesters-shot-dead-wounded">mass protests</a> in N'Djamena and the major cities of the south against the extension of the transition.</p>
<p>The opposition party <a href="https://www.facebook.com/transtchad/?locale=fr_FR">Les Transformateurs </a> and the alliance <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/109643941190301/">Wakit Tama</a>, a coalition of trade unions, civil society groups and opposition parties, had called for the protests. But the authorities had not granted permission for the demonstrations.</p>
<p>The government brought in tanks to the capital during the night and security forces trained in anti-terrorism <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2022/10/chad-experts-alarmed-lethal-use-force-against-protesters-and-call-de">fired into the crowd</a>.</p>
<p>Some protesters were killed. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chad-police-fire-tear-gas-pro-democracy-protests-2022-10-20/">official figures</a> differ considerably from those of the <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/02/24/deadly-chad-protests-death-toll-now-estimated-at-128/">opposition</a>.</p>
<p>Even though some demonstrators were equipped with knives and stones, they could not carry out a rebellion with these weapons, as some Chadian politicians later <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/10/25/chadian-leader-slams-recent-protests-citing-foreign-meddling//">claimed</a>. </p>
<p>Hundreds of people were arrested at their homes during curfews imposed in the following days. They were taken to the <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/12/12/139-people-released-from-prison-after-deadly-protests-in-chad/">Koro Toro high security prison</a> in the inhospitable north of the country.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/23/chad-justice-needed-october-crackdown">Human Rights Watch</a> has also reported that detainees were tortured, and some died.</p>
<p>The leaders of the opposition movements <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/11/10/chads-two-main-opposition-figures-in-hiding-for-safety/">Wakit Tama and Les Transformateurs</a> fled abroad after 20 October and have since been campaigning for an independent investigation into what has become known as <a href="https://www.newenglishreview.org/articles/black-thursday-in-chad-the-reality-of-the-countrys-authoritarian-future/">Black Thursday</a>.</p>
<h2>What does this all mean for the transition plan and Chad’s future?</h2>
<p>It is quite possible that the Chadian transitional president and his confidants miscalculated when they expelled the German ambassador.</p>
<p>European ambassadors have already shown solidarity with the ambassador’s forced departure. As a clear signal of solidarity and unity, they accompanied him to the airport in N'Djamena. This sent a signal that they are united in their support for a foreign policy based on values. This was also confirmed by the <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/454555/eu-slams-chads-expulsion-of-german-ambassador">EU spokesperson</a> in Brussels.</p>
<p>Two years after the death of Idriss Déby and the takeover by the transitional authorities, not many Chadians believe that the country is on a path towards democracy. </p>
<p>They may be right. The absence of external donor funding for the election process is likely to give those in power a good pretext for further delaying the transition process. </p>
<p>For the government and its president Mahamat Déby, the delay would provide even more time and opportunity to expand their power. Frustrations about this could again lead to attacks by politico-military groups and further destabilisation of the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203946/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helga Dickow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Expulsion of the German ambassador could be a way of warning other embassies, especially France, to steer clear of Chadian politics and support for the opposition.Helga Dickow, Senior Researcher at the Arnold Bergstraesser Institut, Freiburg Germany, University of FreiburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023232023-03-22T16:46:24Z2023-03-22T16:46:24ZThe view from Moscow and Beijing: What peace in Ukraine and a post-conflict world look like to Xi and Putin<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516998/original/file-20230322-20-cdc6b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C847%2C7200%2C4083&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Opening the doors to Russia and China's perception.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinese-president-xi-jinping-arrives-at-the-grand-kremlin-news-photo/1248945771?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just a few days after being <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-international-criminal-courts-indictment-of-putin-has-symbolic-importance-202111">branded a war criminal</a> in an international arrest warrant, Russian President Vladimir Putin was talking peace with his most important ally, Chinese president Xi Jinping.</p>
<p>The setting <a href="https://apnews.com/article/xi-putin-russia-china-summit-06b296bc6b1c0c73634ed6329d9d2015">for the get-together</a> was the late-15th-century Faceted Chamber, the ornate throne room of Muscovite grand princes and czars. The main topics of discussion were fittingly grandiose: How should hostilities in Ukraine end? And after the war is over, how should the international security system be reshaped?</p>
<p>The reaction of many in the West to the proposals put forward by China and discussed with Russia has been notably suspicious of intentions. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5062702/secretary-blinken-chinese-president-xi-visit-moscow">warned the world</a> not to be “fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China … to freeze the war on its own terms.”</p>
<p>Such sentiment is understandable. Putin launched a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-178512">brutal, unprovoked war</a> in Ukraine. Amid the heightened emotional environment of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pro-ukraine-group-sabotaged-pipelines-intelligence-suggests-nyt-2023-03-08/">missile attacks on civilians</a>, horrific atrocities against ordinary citizens and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64985009">deportation of children from Ukraine</a>, even a cool evaluation of ways to end the fighting, declare a cease-fire, and begin talks by the belligerents has led to <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/western-advocates-of-appeasement-need-a-crash-course-in-putinology/">accusations of appeasement</a>. And the <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html">peace plan</a> put forward by China on Feb. 24, 2023, and discussed with Putin during a March 20-22 meeting in Moscow has been criticized as overly vague and lacking concrete suggestions. </p>
<p>In such circumstances, it can be difficult to consider what the interest of the other side might actually be in bringing the killing to an end, and their sincerity of any purported efforts to do so.</p>
<p>But as <a href="https://lsa.umich.edu/history/people/emeritus/rgsuny.html">a historian</a>, I ask, what does the world look like from the other side? How has the run-up to the war and the war itself been understood by Russia and China? And what do Xi and Putin envision a post-conflict world to look like?</p>
<h2>Playing by the rules – but whose?</h2>
<p>The rulers of both Russia and China see the West-dominated “<a href="http://atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/strategic-context-the-rules-based-international-system/">rules-based international order</a>” – a system that has dominated geopolitics since the end of the Second World War – as designed to uphold the global hegemony of the United States.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men are seen in the background flanked by giant China and Russian flags. Chandeliers hang overhead." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517018/original/file-20230322-399-vhvyus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517018/original/file-20230322-399-vhvyus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517018/original/file-20230322-399-vhvyus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517018/original/file-20230322-399-vhvyus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517018/original/file-20230322-399-vhvyus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517018/original/file-20230322-399-vhvyus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517018/original/file-20230322-399-vhvyus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Kremlin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russian-president-vladimir-putin-meets-with-chinas-news-photo/1248940335?adppopup=true">Pavel Byrkin/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The two men’s stated preference is for <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/04/19/it-is-now-time-to-focus-on-multilateral-order/">a multilateral system</a>, one which would most probably result in a number of regional hegemons. This would include, to be sure, China and Russia holding sway in their own neighborhoods.</p>
<p>Xi put the <a href="https://english.news.cn/20230320/208baba76dc14ed78d308bfa32b9d4e2/c.html">matter rather gently</a> during his Moscow trip: “The international community has recognized that no country is superior to others, no model of governance is universal, and no single country should dictate the international order. The common interest of all humankind is in a world that is united and peaceful, rather than divided and volatile.”</p>
<p>Reflecting his more street tough style, Putin <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/70743">was more blunt</a>. Russia and China “have consistently advocated the shaping of a more just multipolar world order based on international law rather than certain ‘rules’ serving the needs of the ‘golden billion,’” he said, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/21/1134445639/russia-putin-conspiracy-theory-golden-billion">referencing a theory</a> that holds that the billion people in the richest countries of the world consume the greatest portion of the world’s resources.</p>
<p>Continuing in this vein, Putin said the “crisis in Ukraine” was an example of the West trying to “retain its international dominance and preserve the unipolar world order” while splitting “the common Eurasian space into a network of ‘exclusive clubs’ and military blocs that would serve to contain our countries’ development and harm their interests.”</p>
<h2>China as peacemaker?</h2>
<p>Beijing appears intent to play the role of negotiator-in-chief in this transition to a multipolar world order.</p>
<p>After its success shouldering aside the United States and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-left-out-china-iran-on-top-latest-deal-saudi-arabia-sign-times">brokering a rapprochement</a> between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China has turned its attention to Ukraine.</p>
<p>With its <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html">peace proposal on Ukraine</a>, China has deftly established certain principles to which other nations would eagerly subscribe. </p>
<p>“The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld. All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community,” holds the first principle in language that would be hard to object to.</p>
<p>But those anodyne sentences point in two directions at once. Upholding sovereignty appears, at first, to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-has-exposed-the-folly-and-unintended-consequences-of-armed-missionaries-197609">aimed at Russia a year after</a> it had so clearly violated the sovereignty of neighboring Ukraine. But the principle also can be read to include the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/taiwan-china-relations-80761">conflict over Taiwan</a>, which is recognized by Beijing and some other states as a part of China. It is perhaps no accident that the plan’s wording comes as the U.S., which officially recognizes the position that Taiwan and mainland China are one country, has toughened its stance, vowing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-again-indicates-that-us-will-defend-taiwan-militarily-does-this-constitute-a-change-in-policy-190946">defend the island</a> should it be invaded.
To Beijing, the United States appears intent on turning a rival, China, into an enemy.</p>
<p>Nations, China asserts, have the right to enhance their security but not at the expense of others. This principle echoes directly one of Putin’s most frequently expressed reasons for the conflict with Ukraine: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ukraine-conflict-is-a-war-of-narratives-and-putins-is-crumbling-192811">expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe</a> and the alliance’s promise to expand further by <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm">admitting Georgia and Ukraine</a>. In Putin’s view, such NATO encroachment is an existential threat to Russia’s security interests.</p>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html">Chinese plan also</a> rejects Putin’s <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-the-2022-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/?utm_campaign=wp_the_daily_202&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_daily202">nuclear saber-rattling</a>: “The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed.” </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Chinese strongly insist on the need for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations, a call that Washington <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/blinken-xi-putin-diplomatic-cover-russia-war-crimes">vehemently rejected as a concession</a> that amounted to “diplomatic cover for Russia to continue to commit” war crimes. </p>
<h2>What will Russia settle for?</h2>
<p>Russia’s aims in the Ukraine war are simple enough to dissect, though they have been reduced after the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-ukraine-war-ukraines-surprising-resistance-rise-wartime/story?id=97255342">effective Ukrainian resistance</a> to the initial invasion. </p>
<p>Instead of taking over all of Ukraine, and perhaps setting up a puppet government, Moscow has been forced to accept limited territorial gains in the Donbas and the coastal crescent linking both the region and Russia with Crimea. Reduced though they are, such Russian goals are completely unacceptable to Ukraine and to the Western alliance – and, indeed, to all countries that accept that principle that international borders cannot be legitimately changed unilaterally by military force.</p>
<p>Although not clearly spelled out, this principle is even contained in the very first sentence of the <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html">Chinese peace plan</a>: “Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed.”</p>
<p>That notwithstanding, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/21/putin-welcomes-chinas-controversial-proposals-for-peace-in-ukraine">Putin has welcomed</a> the intervention of China and the plan in general terms.</p>
<h2>Rival global ambitions</h2>
<p>So what’s in this for Beijing, given that to many, the peace plan is already a non-starter?</p>
<p>The conflict in Ukraine is not only devastating to the two belligerents involved, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-has-exposed-the-folly-and-unintended-consequences-of-armed-missionaries-197609">destabilizing for states</a> around the world. In the short run, China may be benefiting from the war because it consumes attention and <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3318508/us-sends-ukraine-400-million-in-military-equipment/">armaments from the West</a> and diverts its gaze from East Asia. The U.S. “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-american-pivot-to-asia/">pivot to the east</a>” – a planned refocusing from the Obama administration onward aimed at countering the perceived threat of China – has stalled.</p>
<p>But there is an argument that Xi is most concerned with China’s renewal of economic development, which would rely on less confrontational relations with Europe and the United States. Stability, both domestically and internationally, works to China’s economic advantage as a major producer and exporter of industrial goods. And Beijing is mindful that a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/economy/china-two-sessions-lowest-gdp-target-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html">slump in foreign demand and investment</a> is hitting the country’s economic prospects.</p>
<p>As such, Beijing’s new role as peacemaker – whether in the Middle East or Eastern Europe – may indeed be sincere. Further, Xi may be the only person on the globe able to persuade Putin to think seriously about a way out of war.</p>
<p>Standing in the way of peace, however, is not only the current intransigence of Russia and Ukraine. The United States’ long-held foreign policy aim of maintaining its “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/11/06/the-myth-of-the-indispensable-nation/">indispensable nation</a>” status runs counter to Russia and China’s ambition to end American global dominance.</p>
<p>It presents two, seemingly insurmountable, rival ambitions.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article was amended on Mar. 24, 2023 to clarify the U.S.’s position on the “One China” policy.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronald Suny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The setting was grand, so too was the plan. But behind the peace plan put forward by China and welcomed by Russia, is the question, what do both nations seek?Ronald Suny, Professor of History and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2009132023-03-20T23:10:21Z2023-03-20T23:10:21ZWhy peace negotiations haven’t gained any traction in the Ukraine war – and how the stalemate could be broken<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513580/original/file-20230306-28-3pj7o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Libkos/AP/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A year after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is in ruins. At least <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133737#:%7E:text=UN%20Human%20Rights%20Chief%20%40volker_turk,least%208%2C006%20dead%20%26%2013%2C287%20injured.">8,000 civilians</a> have died, with millions displaced. Generations of infrastructure have been destroyed. Large tracts of the environment and agricultural land have been devastated. A world food shortage has been created. The global economy is in crisis mode. The world has drawn closer to the unspeakable catastrophe of a nuclear war. </p>
<p>To paraphrase the classical Roman historian Tacitus, the war is producing a wasteland that will be called peace. </p>
<p>In this lose-lose situation, it would be reasonable to suppose that desperate efforts were being made on all sides to engage in productive dialogue and end the devastation. Incredibly, exactly the opposite is occurring. </p>
<p>In the West, apart from Germany, the media have settled into war-propaganda mode. Instead of calls for peace, demands for more weapons prevail, with any tempering of militant urgency treated as akin to <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/appeasement-or-resistance-on-ukraine-the-clash-of-ideas-in-international-affairs">appeasement</a> of Russia. </p>
<p>NATO countries have already provided <a href="https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/">well over a hundred billion dollars in aid</a>, a large proportion of which is for military purposes. They’ve also sent the message the flow will continue “for as long as it takes”. It is impossible to guess the cost for the Ukrainian and Russian people, just as we never read of the numbers of deaths of Ukrainian or Russian soldiers.</p>
<p>Despite the critical need for negotiations, none of the protagonists is able to take even small steps. Where there should be careful analysis of differences and proposals for addressing them, there are mutual taunts, threats and insults. A peace proposal by China has been met – by some, at least – with <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/what-chinas-peace-plan-reveals-about-its-stance-russias-war-ukraine">derision</a>, <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-self-serving-ukraine-peace-plan/">scorn</a> and cynicism. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1629303920198660098"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why have peace negotiations stalled?</h2>
<p>What has gone wrong? Any well-informed observer can trace how trust was eroded. It has given rise to diametrically opposite narratives to which the warring sides are committed. </p>
<p>From the Russian point of view, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine">repeated warnings</a> that the eastward expansion of NATO would be seen as an existential threat were ignored. The failure to honour the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-are-minsk-agreements-ukraine-conflict-2022-02-21/">2015 Minsk agreements</a> and the refusal of the western powers to negotiate on Russia’s strongly stated concerns exposed NATO’s underlying objective to enforce military and economic dominance.</p>
<p>On the Western and Ukrainian sides, the Russian invasion is seen as the work of a cruel dictator who aspires to destroy democracy, disregard the sovereign rights of a neighbouring country and rebuild Russian imperial control of post-Soviet eastern Europe. </p>
<p>The protagonists are undoubtedly far apart, but why have the global institutions of peace been unable to bring them together? </p>
<p>The United Nations — which was founded precisely to prevent such disasters — has been paralysed. This is partly because the conflict directly involves Russia –and, by proxy, the US, France, Britain and even China, all permanent members of the Security Council – and partly because member states have conflicting interests and divided loyalties. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516295/original/file-20230320-20-fdq90n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516295/original/file-20230320-20-fdq90n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516295/original/file-20230320-20-fdq90n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516295/original/file-20230320-20-fdq90n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516295/original/file-20230320-20-fdq90n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516295/original/file-20230320-20-fdq90n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516295/original/file-20230320-20-fdq90n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, listens before the General Assembly vote in February upholding Ukraine’s territorial integrity and calling for a cessation of hostilities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bebeto Matthews/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sporadic attempts by countries such as France, Germany, Israel, Turkey and now China to encourage negotiations have failed. No country is prepared to respond to the global forces driving the conflict, which include competition between the great powers for economic and political hegemony. Diplomats – arguably those with the skills most finely honed to respond to such challenges – have been blocked by their primary obligations to advocate for their governments’ interests. </p>
<p>As events have spun out of control, the expression in the media of dissenting points of view about the causes of the war and how to end it has been subdued in many countries, including the United States, Ukraine, Russia and Australia, to a remarkably similar degree. </p>
<p>Disastrous policies continue to be pursued by all sides even when the elements of a workable solution are readily apparent. As many external observers <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2022/12/6/jeffrey_sachs_ukraine_war">acknowledge</a>, ultimately, there is a path toward ending the conflict if all parties can find agreement on a neutral and secure Ukraine, a degree of autonomy for the eastern Donbas region, and a process to heal the wounds and re-establish economic and cultural ties. </p>
<p>The inevitability of these outcomes notwithstanding, the runaway logic of the conflict for the moment appears to place them far out of reach. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/peace-in-ukraine-doesnt-ultimately-depend-on-putin-or-zelensky-its-the-ukrainian-people-who-must-decide-200072">Peace in Ukraine doesn't ultimately depend on Putin or Zelensky – it's the Ukrainian people who must decide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How humanitarian diplomacy can help</h2>
<p>How can the stalemate be broken? In principle, a government, such as Australia’s, could call the warring parties together to initiate a process of reconciliation. Sadly, the chances of such an imaginative leap appear remote. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513582/original/file-20230306-26-znj52h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513582/original/file-20230306-26-znj52h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513582/original/file-20230306-26-znj52h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513582/original/file-20230306-26-znj52h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513582/original/file-20230306-26-znj52h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513582/original/file-20230306-26-znj52h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513582/original/file-20230306-26-znj52h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Could a humanitarian organisation such as the Red Cross facilitate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">International Committee of the Red Cross/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The alternative is an initiative from civil society itself. Since the formation of the Red Cross in 1863, the concept that non-state entities can help alleviate the effects of crises has been carefully refined. </p>
<p>Although focused almost entirely on protecting the victims of violence and disasters and delivering humanitarian assistance, hundreds of non-governmental organisations around the world — including the Red Cross, Médecins Sans Frontières, Save the Children and others — also engage in private and public dialogues to <a href="https://hdcentre.org/area-work/humanitarian-mediation/">mitigate the impacts of conflicts</a>. </p>
<p>The practitioners of such <a href="https://www.cmi.no/publications/6536-humanitarian-diplomacy-a-new-research-agenda">humanitarian diplomacy</a> are skilled at facilitating ethical conversations and fashioning mutually beneficial compromises. Unlike the UN and formal diplomatic processes, humanitarian diplomats can engage with the full range of stakeholders, including religious, cultural, professional and other civil society organisations. </p>
<p>Now is the time for this resource to be mobilised to establish reconciliation dialogue in Ukraine. Humanitarian diplomacy, which views the safety and welfare of civilians as a high priority, is key to this effort. </p>
<p>The Ukraine conflict, like many others in the world today, has highlighted the need for a new mechanism led by trusted neutrals to come into effect. Let us hope we can move forward in this way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-end-heres-how-peace-negotiations-have-worked-in-past-wars-180778">How can Russia's invasion of Ukraine end? Here's how peace negotiations have worked in past wars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200913/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Komesaroff is Executive Director of Global Reconciliation, an international NGO that administers the Desmond Tutu Reconciliation Fellowship which is currently seeking nominations of people working to promote reconciliation in Ukraine. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul James is affiliated with Global Reconciliation, an organization that works in this area, and is currently seeking nominations for the Desmond Tutu Reconciliation Fellowship for creative activity in relation to ending the war in Ukraine.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Lamb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Talk of peace in Ukraine has taken a backseat to a media narrative promoting the continuation of the war. It’s time to pursue other ways to end the conflict – such as reconciliation.Paul Komesaroff, Professor of Medicine, Monash UniversityChristopher Lamb, Humanitarian Adviser, The University of MelbournePaul James, Professor of Globalization and Cultural Diversity, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977802023-02-24T13:13:57Z2023-02-24T13:13:57ZAll wars eventually end – here are 3 situations that will lead Russia and Ukraine to make peace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512033/original/file-20230223-572-ddjdj4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=489%2C47%2C6827%2C5191&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Ukrainian woman touches the grave of her husband, a soldier killed by Russian troops in August 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1468851592/photo/daily-life-in-lviv-as-war-reaches-first-anniversary.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=0SH4jmSpMN6SBaCEu7QzmStd3NRMUqfcRa2hVwZ7_AU=">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been a year since Russia first launched a full invasion of Ukraine, and, right now, peace seems impossible.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-ukraine-must-accept-realities-there-be-peace-2022-12-13/">Peace talks between</a> the two countries have launched, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/world/europe/ukraine-russia-peace-talks.html">and then faltered</a>, multiple times.</p>
<p>In February 2023, a senior Ukrainian official said that peace talks are “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/11/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/">out of the question</a>” – without Ukraine’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/">reclaiming its territory</a> that Russia overtook 2022. </p>
<p>All wars end, however, and research shows that <a href="https://hcss.nl/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/How-Wars-End-HCSS-2022.pdf">almost half end in some type of agreement</a> to stop the fighting. The others end in victory for one side or when, for a variety of reasons, the fighting simply peters out. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.sandiego.edu/news/biography.php?profile_id=2091">a scholar</a> of peace and conflict, I have 20 years of experience working to help people establish and maintain peace after conflict.</p>
<p>As Ukraine readies to enter its second year of a widespread war with Russia, I think it is useful to consider how wars end and what conditions need to be in place before the war between Russia and Ukraine might draw to a close.</p>
<p>Here are three key points that help assess the possibility of whether a war might end. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two rows of soldiers in green outfits and helmets hold rifles all pointed in the same direction." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512034/original/file-20230223-2933-o2vv7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ukrainian National Guard soldiers undergo combat training outside of Kyiv in February 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1247404437/photo/ukraine-war-before-anniversary-start-of-war.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=wcVgTDCh5-f7SojjZ6186C-BnbBiGBGPasbIKvzk26w=">Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. A shared idea of the future</h2>
<p>The first question is whether opposing groups at war agree about what it will take for war to end – be it land, money or political control. </p>
<p>Fighting in a war is part of a wider bargaining process. Victories on the battlefield allow the winning aggressor to demand more, while defeats may mean those losing ground have to settle for less. </p>
<p>Once both sides have a clear sense of the fighting’s likely outcome, additional negotiations – or more fighting – become less important. And because <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/economic">war is so costly</a>, it is normally better to accept even part of an envisioned peace agreement than continue to fight. </p>
<p>At the moment, Russian and Ukraine appear to have differing opinions about the war’s likely outcome. Ukrainian forces made progress in September 2022 when they <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/29/1125278321/ukraine-offensive-russia-borshchova-kharkiv-oblast">retook two Ukrainian regions</a> – Kharkiv and Kherson – that Russia had occupied. So Ukraine is likely to believe that it can make more advances if it keeps on fighting. </p>
<p>Conversely, Russia successfully halted a wider <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe">collapse of its forces</a> and appears to be in a stronger position militarily heading into the spring <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-rebound-moscow-recovered-military-setbacks">than it was in the fall of 2022</a>. </p>
<h2>2. If war costs overtake costs of peace</h2>
<p>Beliefs in the costs of war and the costs of peace also matter. </p>
<p>If the <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/papers/summary">costs of war</a> – including human lives, money or more intangible qualities, such as prestige – are low, one side might keep fighting for its goals. </p>
<p>The human and economic costs of this war are <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/2/19/russia-ukraine-live-news-west-unwilling-to-discuss-peace-efforts">very high for both Russia</a> and Ukraine, although they are <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/madelinehalpert/2022/05/04/russias-invasion-has-cost-ukraine-up-to-600-billion-study-suggests/?sh=12f769bd2dda">clearly much higher for Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p>Russian attacks in Ukraine <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-casualties-deaths.html">killed at least 40,000 Ukrainian civilians</a> in the first year of this conflict, and more than <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-ballooning-costs-of-the-ukraine-war/">13 million Ukrainians</a> have had to flee their homes – about half have left the country altogether. </p>
<p>Upwards of 100,000 Ukrainian and Russian soldiers <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372">have also died</a> in the fighting war. </p>
<p>These losses should help create incentives for Ukraine to go along with some kind of agreement to stop the fighting. </p>
<p>However, the costs of peace are also still very high for both sides. </p>
<p>It is possible that that Russian President Vladimir Putin would lose power, and might <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ultra-patriots-may-try-overthrow-putin-over-ukraine-russian-mp-2023-2">even lose his life</a>, if he is seen to be capitulating to Ukraine. </p>
<p>For Ukraine, peace might require relinquishment of part of its recognized, sovereign territory. It would also require Ukrainian people to make peace with an enemy whose wartime strategy has been to carry out the deliberate, targeted “<a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/war-termination-and-escalation-in-ukraine/">brutalization of the Ukrainian people</a>.” </p>
<h2>3. Whether peace can be enforced</h2>
<p>When opposing groups reach an agreement in other types of conflicts – such as an agreement to end a labor union strike, for instance – there is typically a government in place to help enforce its agreement. </p>
<p>Enforcing peace agreements between different countries is far more difficult because there is no global government to enforce them. </p>
<p>This creates what war and peace researchers call a commitment problem. Without a way to enforce an agreement, how can one side trust the other side to live up to the commitments it made to stop fighting?</p>
<p>In smaller conflicts, the United Nations could serve as a credible, if imperfect, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27800510">enforcer of a peace agreement</a> – <a href="https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1813&context=ilj&sei-redir=1">as it did in Kosovo</a> after the war there ended in 1999. </p>
<p>Given that Russia has nuclear weapons and considerable political power as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, these options are not feasible in the case of Ukraine. Neither the U.N. nor any other group or country is powerful enough to force Russia to fulfill commitments it might make as part of a peace agreement.</p>
<p>Without a solid way to enforce the terms of a peace agreement, there is little incentive for either warring party to agree to one. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman wears a blue and yellow flag draped over her shoulders ad stands in front of rows of pairs of shoes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512054/original/file-20230223-22-eo8onv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ukrainian designer Margarita Chala stands next to shoes in Prague symbolizing war crimes in Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1247164013/photo/topshot-czech-ukraine-war-protest.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=R-CrRGTExtSXZlp8jtXwfBHbBzzuRzGa4Tihf6hq3G0=">Michal Cizek/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What might change between Russian and Ukraine</h2>
<p>Based on the answers to these three questions, I don’t think it’s very likely that there will soon be productive peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.</p>
<p>But there are three main issues that could change this dynamic. </p>
<p>First, the Ukrainian offensive in the fall of 2022 revealed a host of <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/04/russia-army-retreating-kherson-ukraine/">weaknesses within the Russian military</a>. If the Russian military continues to falter, it would create incentives for Russia to negotiate some kind of peace agreement or cease-fire. </p>
<p>Second, Ukrainian people have suffered almost <a href="https://gppi.net/2022/05/23/why-is-russia-being-so-brutal-in-ukraine">unimaginable attacks</a> and losses in 2022. The suffering of the Ukrainians appears to have hardened their <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-defiant-as-putins-terror-bombing-plunges-cities-into-darkness/">resolve and willingness to defend their country</a>. However, I think that it would not be surprising if Ukrainians eventually prefer to end the fighting – even with an undesirable peace agreement. </p>
<p>Third, public polling in Russia is difficult to conduct because of a range of factors, <a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-is-enlisting-hundreds-of-thousands-of-men-to-fight-against-ukraine-but-public-support-for-putin-is-falling-191158">including many Russians’ concern</a> about criticizing Putin and the government.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/">Putin’s popularity appears to have remained high</a> during the war. But if Russia were to lose the war, it could place Putin in immediate danger of being overthrown either by a popular uprising or in a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/23/putin-coup-russian-regime/">palace coup</a>. </p>
<p>It is not possible to predict which of these dynamics might lead to peace negotiations. In every war, however, unforeseen developments unfold that allow progress toward eventual peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Questions about whether warring parties agree about how the war will end and the costs of war or peace are all key factors to help assess when a conflict might end.Andrew Blum, Executive Director and Professor of Practice at Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace, University of San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2000722023-02-22T00:09:50Z2023-02-22T00:09:50ZPeace in Ukraine doesn’t ultimately depend on Putin or Zelensky – it’s the Ukrainian people who must decide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511260/original/file-20230221-20-x8m040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=172%2C14%2C4708%2C3308&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emilio Morenatti/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now lasted for one year. As overwhelming victory for either side looks unlikely, many are now calling for a negotiated settlement to the war. For instance, China is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/18/chinese-peace-plan-for-ukraine-greeted-cautiously-by-the-west">promising</a> details of a peace plan imminently. </p>
<p>A critical question underlying any negotiated settlement is: how can the demands on both sides be balanced to achieve a stable, durable peace?</p>
<p>The answer to this question often ignores an indispensable player, the Ukrainian people. For both legal and political reasons, Ukraine’s <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Ukraine_2019?lang=en">constitutional democracy</a> requires any peace deal to be ratified by its people. If they are ignored, a stable peace deal is far less likely. </p>
<h2>Negotiations hinging on Russia’s annexations</h2>
<p>As we enter the second year of the war, bilateral negotiations are hopelessly deadlocked over the control of territory that lies within Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders. </p>
<p>On September 30, 2022, Russia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/30/putin-russia-war-annexes-ukraine-regions">illegally annexed</a> four occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/should-the-west-negotiate-with-russia-the-pros-and-cons-of-high-level-talks-193297">Should the West negotiate with Russia? The pros and cons of high-level talks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In December, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/28/what-is-zelenskyys-10-point-peace-plan">proposed</a> a 10-point peace plan that called for Russia to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity and withdraw all of its armed forces from the country. Zelensky said this was “not up to negotiations”. </p>
<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelensky-peace-deal-depends-key-shift-russia-ukraine-war-1770477">suggested</a> he might be willing to negotiate, but the Kremlin later added Ukraine must recognise its annexation of the four Ukrainian regions. </p>
<p>In response, an increasing chorus of both “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/02/how-biden-help-ukraine-zelensky/">realist</a>” and <a href="https://www.peaceinukraine.org">anti-war</a> voices have argued that US President Joe Biden or the west more broadly must seek to broker a deal between Ukraine and Russia and stop the violence. This includes encouraging Ukraine to be “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-war-will-end-negotiations">flexible</a>” in its negotiations. </p>
<p>China is also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/18/chinese-peace-plan-for-ukraine-greeted-cautiously-by-the-west">putting forward</a> a peace plan to encourage negotiations and end the war. It will reportedly focus on the need to uphold the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, but take into account Russia’s security concerns. </p>
<p>This has led many into a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/12/06/ukraine-is-the-victim-negotiations-should-be-kyivs-decision/">moral debate</a> about whether Ukraine should be pushed to negotiate over the status of its sovereign territory. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1627621854616625152"}"></div></p>
<h2>The forgotten role of the Ukrainian people</h2>
<p>The discussion so far misses a critical reality. A stable peace deal cannot just be a diplomatic pact between Ukraine, Russia, China and the west. It also requires the support of the Ukrainian people for both legal and political reasons. </p>
<p>Legally, Ukraine is a constitutional democracy. This means any formal cession of Ukraine’s sovereign territory (including Crimea) would require constitutional change and, therefore, a referendum. In fact, <a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/44a280124.pdf">article 156 of Ukraine’s Constitution</a> requires such fundamental changes to be put to an all-Ukrainian referendum. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-end-heres-how-peace-negotiations-have-worked-in-past-wars-180778">How can Russia's invasion of Ukraine end? Here's how peace negotiations have worked in past wars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Politically, any stable peace deal must have broad public support or it will be abandoned by a future leader. </p>
<p>Zelensky knows this. In March 2022, he was willing to promise Russia that Ukraine would never join NATO in return for other security guarantees from the US and Europe. But he said ultimately this decision was not his to make – it had to be <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60901024">ratified</a> by the people. </p>
<p>This makes political sense: an unpopular set of concessions in a peace deal with Russia would end Zelensky’s political career and would likely be overturned by a future president. </p>
<p>The legal and political role of the Ukrainian people should come as no surprise. They were largely ignored in the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now">Minsk agreements</a> drawn up by diplomats in Ukraine, Russia and Europe to try to resolve the conflict that broke out after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Russian-backed insurgency in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511299/original/file-20230221-20-oqgidk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511299/original/file-20230221-20-oqgidk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511299/original/file-20230221-20-oqgidk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511299/original/file-20230221-20-oqgidk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511299/original/file-20230221-20-oqgidk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511299/original/file-20230221-20-oqgidk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511299/original/file-20230221-20-oqgidk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany gathered in Minsk in 2015 to negotiate an end fighting between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most notably, article 11 of the Minsk II agreement <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement">required</a> amendments to Ukraine’s Constitution decentralising control over the two regions in Donbas. </p>
<p>This agreement failed, in part, because of a lack of support from the Ukrainian people. The decentralisation reforms were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/08/31/ukrainians-are-fighting-in-the-streets-over-a-new-constitution/">highly controversial</a>, triggering violent protests that ended any chance of reform. </p>
<p>Furthermore, in a 2019 referendum, the Ukrainian people <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-amends-constitution-to-cement-eu-nato-course/4776669.html">inserted</a> a commitment to “full-fledged membership” in NATO into Ukraine’s Constitution. This further undermined the implementation of the Minsk agreements. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-says-peace-in-ukraine-will-be-on-our-terms-but-what-can-the-west-accept-and-at-what-cost-187349">Russia says peace in Ukraine will be ‘on our terms’ – but what can the West accept and at what cost?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Vast majority of Ukrainians reject giving land to Russia</h2>
<p>Those wanting a peace deal, therefore, must accept the reality that a peace deal cannot simply be the result of clever diplomatic bargaining and negotiation. It must also take into account the realities of Ukrainian democracy and the important role the people play in Ukrainian politics. </p>
<p>Ignoring the role of the people would be a significant mistake. In fact, there is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russia-ukraine-war-and-its-ramifications-for-russia/">strong evidence</a> showing the war is deepening hostility to Russia among the Ukrainian people. Consequently, it is increasingly unlikely that Ukrainians would endorse any Russian annexation of Ukraine’s sovereign territory (even Russia’s 2014 absorption of Crimea). </p>
<p>In fact, polling shows as many as 84% of Ukrainians now <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-unity-identity-poll-russian-invasion/32001348.html">reject</a> any territorial concessions to Russia. </p>
<p>Ukrainian popular opinion can certainly change over time, particularly if a peace deal is crafted in a way that will garner support from the Ukrainian people. But the need for popular support will undoubtedly constrain the number of concessions that Ukraine can make and shape the details of any peace deal. </p>
<p>However, if these popular constraints are ignored, it is hard to avoid an even more sobering conclusion: short of major change in the war – such as overwhelming victory for either side or new leadership in Russia – it will be increasingly difficult to get a stable peace deal at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Partlett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ukraine’s constitutional democracy requires any peace deal to be ratified by its people. If they are ignored, a stable peace deal is far less likely.William Partlett, Associate Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995582023-02-16T17:15:10Z2023-02-16T17:15:10ZCalls for peace in Ukraine a year after Russia’s full-scale invasion are unrealistic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510179/original/file-20230214-28-mskq2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C67%2C5000%2C3158&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Ukrainian mother sobs at the funeral of her son in Irpin, near Kyiv, on Feb. 14, 2023. He was a civilian who was a volunteer in the armed forces of Ukraine and died fighting in the Bakhmut area of the country. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/calls-for-peace-in-ukraine-a-year-after-russia-s-full-scale-invasion-are-unrealistic" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As we reach the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, politicians continue <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/01/21/no-one-will-win-a-protracted-war-in-ukraine/">to call for peace</a>. </p>
<p>Elizabeth May, Canada’s Green Party leader, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjRg6-B5HF4">is among the most recent to make such a call in Canada</a>. Former British Labour Leader <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/02/jeremy-corbyn-urges-west-to-stop-arming-ukraine">Jeremy Corbyn</a> has been among the most consistent. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A man with grey hair and a beard sings into a microphone with one arm raised." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510170/original/file-20230214-20-o6tgmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510170/original/file-20230214-20-o6tgmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510170/original/file-20230214-20-o6tgmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510170/original/file-20230214-20-o6tgmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510170/original/file-20230214-20-o6tgmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510170/original/file-20230214-20-o6tgmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510170/original/file-20230214-20-o6tgmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Roger Waters, former member of Pink Floyd, performs at a concert in Rome in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even Pink Floyd frontman <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/pink-floyd-star-roger-waters-addresses-un-at-russias-request-after-denying-incendiary-claims-in-row-with-ex-bandmate-12806682">Roger Waters appealed for peace at the United Nations Security Council on Feb. 8, 2023</a> at the behest of the Russian Federation, downplaying Russian aggression. </p>
<p>These calls for peace neglect to consider the challenges that stand in the way of peace.</p>
<h2>Why has peace not happened yet?</h2>
<p>Peace has been elusive since Feb. 24, 2022. Early in the escalation, leading into the spring of 2022, frequent news reports <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60987350">suggested peace could be on the horizon</a> before negotiations collapsed. </p>
<p>Russia’s refusal <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/7/ukraine-blasts-russia-plan-corridor">to honour agreements for humanitarian zones</a> contributed to the collapse of the talks. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/humanitarian-corridors-could-help-civilians-safely-leave-ukraine-but-russia-has-a-history-of-not-respecting-these-pathways-178840">Humanitarian corridors could help civilians safely leave Ukraine – but Russia has a history of not respecting these pathways</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As the war has continued, Ukraine and the world have become aware of the scale of atrocities Russia has perpetrated, including the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/bucha-ukraine-bodies.html">mass graves in Bucha</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/16/izyum-grave-ukraine-horrors-rape/">Izyum</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-erasing-mariupol-499dceae43ed77f2ebfe750ea99b9ad9">and Mariupol</a>; <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/12/29/i-heard-my-husband-s-inhuman-screams">the discovery of torture chambers in Kherson</a>; and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ukrainian-children-russia-7493cb22c9086c6293c1ac7986d85ef6">the forced removal of children from Ukraine into Russia</a>. </p>
<p>Russian officials have <a href="https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1524843197951795200?lang=en">confirmed the latter practice</a>, despite it being in contravention of the UN’s <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf">Genocide Convention</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1524843197951795200"}"></div></p>
<p>Russia also continues to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kyiv-missile-strike-russia-cities-1.6611910">attack civilian infrastructure</a>, terrorizing Ukrainian civilians. </p>
<p>These realities underscore the key problem with a ceasefire. Any territory still occupied by Russia condemns Ukrainians living in this territory. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-recap-russia-targets-civilians-as-the-world-argues-about-how-to-end-the-war-192461">Ukraine recap: Russia targets civilians as the world argues about how to end the war</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For any hope of a lasting negotiated settlement, Russia must prove itself willing and capable of accepting justice for its actions and honouring its agreements. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-putin-chechnya/661321/">The Russian track record under Vladimir Putin</a> here does not bode well. </p>
<h2>Russia won’t back down; Ukraine can’t</h2>
<p>This issue is connected to a second, more serious obstacle: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151">Russia maintains its extreme aims</a>. </p>
<p>Russia has consistently noted it will only accept a negotiated settlement that acknowledges Russian control of the territories of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk that it claims to have annexed, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/12/1136312122/ukraine-regains-control-of-kherson">even after Ukraine took back control in some regions</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-any-ukraine-peace-plan-must-include-annexed-regions-2022-12-28/">Russia has not wavered from this position</a>. </p>
<p>Ukraine has maintained its own aims — to liberate territory, including Crimea, from Russian occupation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently offered a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-zelenskiys-10-point-peace-plan-2022-12-28/">10-point plan for peace</a>, which includes demands for Russian troops to leave Ukraine and for war crimes tribunals. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/29/russia-rejects-zelenskyys-peace-formula-lavrov">Russia rejected Zelenskyy’s plan.</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bearded man with dark hair with his hand on his head standing in front of a European Union flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510174/original/file-20230214-26-p90oau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510174/original/file-20230214-26-p90oau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510174/original/file-20230214-26-p90oau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510174/original/file-20230214-26-p90oau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510174/original/file-20230214-26-p90oau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510174/original/file-20230214-26-p90oau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510174/original/file-20230214-26-p90oau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses a media conference at a European Union summit in Brussels on Feb. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Olivier Matthys)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A ceasefire, or lasting peace, is incredibly difficult without one side moving from its position. Currently, the military reality on the ground, despite Russia’s initial aims being thwarted and Ukrainian successes in defending its territory, does not seem to be leading Russia to reconsider its efforts. Neither has the situation warranted a need for Ukraine to do the same.</p>
<p>Some westerners <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-peace-proposals-chances-1773005">have started to suggest liberating Crimea may be one aim Ukraine may need to reconsider</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/what-to-expect-from-russias-much-awaited-offensive-in-ukraine.html">Russia, in the meantime, is gearing up for a renewed offensive</a>, taking advantage of the troops called up in its “<a href="https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/11/04/putin-claims-318-000-were-drafted-under-partial-mobilization">partial mobilization</a>” in the fall of 2022.</p>
<p>Ukrainians are training on and deploying new equipment provided by the West. The critical period in the war could come in the next few months. </p>
<p>But war is hard to predict. Many figures, including American intelligence officials, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/kyiv-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/index.html">wrongly believed Ukraine was likely to collapse in February 2022</a>. </p>
<h2>The elusive ‘lasting peace’</h2>
<p>Well-meaning calls for peace are understandable and laudable, especially with concerns over <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-call-for-peace-why-canada-should-tone-down-demands-for-russian-regime-change-197347">nuclear escalation</a>, the high loss of life in Ukraine and a “forever war” taking place.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-call-for-peace-why-canada-should-tone-down-demands-for-russian-regime-change-197347">A call for peace: Why Canada should tone down demands for Russian regime change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But attaining peace is complicated; wishful thinking won’t make it happen. Even in major wars, like the <a href="https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/peace_initiatives">First World War</a> where a stalemate defined operations for years, peace was difficult to attain because of the aims of the belligerents. </p>
<p>Some groups have tied their calls for peace or a ceasefire with demands to <a href="https://countercurrents.org/2023/02/stop-arming-ukraine-calls-manifesto-for-peace-quarter-of-a-million-sign-petition/">end shipments of munitions and weaponry</a> to Ukraine. </p>
<p>Others believe <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-tanks.html">Ukraine cannot win</a>. <a href="https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-731369">Some claim Ukraine should give up territory</a> or <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/07/13/ukraine-must-grasp-peace-from-jaws-of-unwinnable-war/">negotiate to maintain its existence</a>. </p>
<p>These responses are short-sighted. Effectively, they encourage Russia’s aggression while removing the support Ukraine has used to defend its territory to great effect so far. <a href="https://eca.unwomen.org/en/stories/in-the-words-of/2023/01/in-the-words-of-oleksandra-matviychuk-if-we-want-sustainable-peace-we-need-justice">They also ensure no justice</a> for Ukrainians over Russian atrocities. </p>
<p>Others have called for a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/opinion/russia-ukraine-negotiation.html">return to pre-Feb. 24, 2022 borders</a>. </p>
<p>These calls fail to recognize that world no longer exists. Putin — and those who followed his lead — gambled for more territory, hoping the West would not react. Russia wanted to claw more territory from Ukraine; it wasn’t satisfied with the previous status quo. It’s clearly not reconsidered this stance.</p>
<p>These realities underpin why many experts, including myself, stress the need for Russia’s defeat in Ukraine in the absence of other reliable options. The best path to a lasting peace in the region is for Ukraine to liberate its territory and for Russia to accept it cannot act aggressively. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A balding man raises his finger while speaking into a microphone. A red and blue flag is behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510178/original/file-20230214-18-pt8scd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510178/original/file-20230214-18-pt8scd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510178/original/file-20230214-18-pt8scd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510178/original/file-20230214-18-pt8scd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510178/original/file-20230214-18-pt8scd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510178/original/file-20230214-18-pt8scd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510178/original/file-20230214-18-pt8scd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during a meeting in Moscow on Feb. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s at stake?</h2>
<p>A forced ceasefire or peace today, without reflecting on what it would mean for Ukrainians under Russian occupation and without recognizing that Ukraine has a right to defend itself, means accepting a situation that will bring little resolution and prolong tensions. </p>
<p>To appreciate these obstacles, to highlight the unlikelihood of peace in this moment, or to support Ukraine is not to give into war-mongering.</p>
<p>Rather, such a viewpoint recognizes the realities of this conflict, one that Russia escalated into a war of aggression with imperialistic aims. Ukraine is defending its territory and its people. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man holds a bouquet of flowers as he walks in a city square. Metal barriers are in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510171/original/file-20230214-1870-k4ke5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2744%2C1778&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510171/original/file-20230214-1870-k4ke5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510171/original/file-20230214-1870-k4ke5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510171/original/file-20230214-1870-k4ke5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510171/original/file-20230214-1870-k4ke5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510171/original/file-20230214-1870-k4ke5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510171/original/file-20230214-1870-k4ke5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man carries a bouquet of flowers as he walks past metal anti-tank barriers in Maidan square in Kyiv, Ukraine on Valentine’s Day 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Tony Hicks)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A time will come <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/30/russia-ukraine-war-peace-2023-putin-zelensky/">when Russia or Ukraine may need to recognize the military realities on the ground</a> and tough decisions will need to be made in negotiations. That moment has not yet come.</p>
<p>Ukrainians hope for peace; <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/poll-85-of-ukrainians-believe-victory-in-war-with-russia-requires-liberating-all-territories-including-crimea-and-donbas">for them, it will only come when Russia leaves Ukrainian territory</a>. </p>
<p>However, calls for peace that suggest Ukraine should give up its territory simply to end the war will condemn Ukrainians in occupied territories to what will likely be unspeakable horrors, and will provide a precarious foundation for lasting peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oleksa Drachewych does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Calls for peace that suggest Ukraine should give up territory simply to end the war will condemn some Ukrainians to unspeakable horrors and provide a precarious foundation for lasting peace.Oleksa Drachewych, Assistant Professor in History, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1997912023-02-16T08:26:04Z2023-02-16T08:26:04ZPan-Africanism remains a dream: four key issues the African Union must tackle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510080/original/file-20230214-22-qyk3hy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Delegates at an African Union summit in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, in 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-general-view-shows-delegates-in-malabo-on-may-27-2022-news-photo/1240955390?phrase=african%20union&adppopup=true">AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://au.int/en/overview">African Union</a> (AU) – made up of 55 member countries – has made significant progress with integrating the countries of the continent and giving them a voice in global politics. </p>
<p>Over the past two decades it has developed meaningful policies on <a href="https://au.int/documents/1504">peace and security</a>, and trade, like the <a href="https://au-afcfta.org/">African Continental Free Trade Area</a>. The <a href="https://au.int/en/commission">African Union Commission</a> helps set the agenda and represent African interests in global forums alongside important partners like the United Nations and the European Union. </p>
<p>But the AU still has a long way to go to achieve the political, economic and cultural goals set out in <a href="https://au.int/en/agenda2063/overview">Agenda 2063</a>, adopted in 2013. </p>
<p>I was an adviser to the union for over a decade and I am now the editor of the <a href="https://brill.com/display/title/61135">Yearbook of the African Union</a>. In my view, progress in implementing the pan-African agenda has stalled. This is partially due to the challenging dynamics in how member states, the AU’s governing organs and external partners relate and pursue their interests. </p>
<p>The annual <a href="https://au.int/en/assembly">Assembly of African Heads of State and Government</a> offers an opportunity to consider these issues and decide how to resolve them. In 2023, the summit will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from <a href="https://au.int/en/summit/36">18 to 19 February</a>.</p>
<h2>Four factors stalling progress</h2>
<p>I believe that four issues have stalled progress in the pan-African agenda. These issues relate to collective decision making, independent financing, division of labour and the adoption of common policies that would nurture strategic partnerships. </p>
<p><strong>1. Member states have implemented too few collective decisions</strong> </p>
<p>The AU has adopted several <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties">important legal documents</a> which member states are supposed to adopt for themselves, too. These documents – signed during heads of state and government meetings – must be ratified and then deposited with the union. </p>
<p>This usually happens very slowly and only very patchily. The reasons vary. According to one of the few <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/1687380/Maluwa.pdf">academic inquiries</a> into the subject, these reasons include a lack of political will, administrative lethargy and deficits in technical capacity among member states.</p>
<p>The AU has no power to force member states to carry out common decisions. It can only monitor compliance on three legal instruments, including the 2007 <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/treaties/36384-treaty-african-charter-on-democracy-and-governance.pdf">African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance</a>).</p>
<p>To see progress in policy implementation, member states will have to think seriously about how to arrive at binding, transparent and enforceable mechanisms. </p>
<p>One way to do this would be through introducing a clear and limited window of time for ratifying legal documents. The union could also make it mandatory to report on the implementation of all decisions. </p>
<p><strong>2. Independent finances have not been established</strong></p>
<p>The AU’s ambitious plans depend heavily on external finance. Almost two-thirds of the union’s annual budget comes from donors, dubbed international partners. </p>
<p>Contributions from member states account for the remaining third. However, these tend to come late, or in some cases only in part. About <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/pages/31953-file-faq.pdf">30 member states</a> default partially or completely each year. In 2007, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria and South Africa volunteered to make higher contributions. They account for 45% of the funds raised by African governments. Morocco, which rejoined the AU in 2017 after a 33-year absence, has replaced Libya as a major donor. </p>
<p>The AU’s <a href="https://au.int/en/aureforms/financing">financial reform</a> process began in 2015 to make the organisation more self-reliant. Members committed to paying a <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/pages/31953-file-faq.pdf">0.2% levy</a> on various goods imported from outside the continent.</p>
<p>This money is expected to support 100% of the union’s operational budget (which includes maintenance and salaries), 75% of the programme budget (which includes implementation of policies) and 25% of the budget for union-led peace operations.</p>
<p>The union still must decide how the 100/75/25 target will be met by 2025. In the <a href="http://apanews.net/en/news/aus-2023-budget-at-6548m">current budget</a> (US$655 million for the 2023 financial year), the financial shortfall stands at US$201 million, a 31% deficit.</p>
<p><strong>3. The division of labour between the African Union and regional economic communities remains unclear</strong></p>
<p>Relations between the African Union and the eight officially recognised <a href="https://au.int/en/recs">regional economic communities</a> are based on two principles. These are subsidiarity (where, whenever possible, the regional level takes the lead) and comparative advantage (where the institution that’s better equipped to deal with a situation leads).</p>
<p>A <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/Kagame_Report.pdf">2017 report</a> on the operations of the AU noted that the division of labour between the union and regional communities was “unclear”. This caused a duplication of roles and a lack of clear boundaries.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.tralac.org/blog/article/15548-how-relevant-is-the-protocol-on-relations-between-the-recs-and-au">new protocol</a> on the relationship between the AU and regional economic blocs was adopted in 2020. But its details are yet to be finalised.</p>
<p><strong>4. The instruments of a common global policy are either underused or underdeveloped</strong></p>
<p>The AU is working to increase its bargaining power in global politics by developing common policies and nurturing strategic partnerships. </p>
<p>But because of member states’ insistence on sovereignty, <a href="https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-30-2.pdf">few common policies</a> have been developed. The most prominent one relates to the <a href="https://oau-aec-au-documents.uwazi.io/en/document/jc4bndxh7vpc23nevov18aor?page=2">reform of the UN Security Council</a> to give Africa more power. </p>
<p>In terms of strategic partnerships, the AU currently is <a href="https://au.int/en/partnerships">focusing its activities</a> on three multilateral (Arab League, European Union and United Nations) and five bilateral (China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey) partnerships. However, the frequency of meetings, scope of activities and meaning of the word “strategic” vary widely. </p>
<h2>Opportunity for change</h2>
<p>This year’s <a href="https://au.int/en/assembly">Assembly of African Heads of State and Government</a> is expected to attend to these urgent items:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>implementing and domesticating union decisions</p></li>
<li><p>the division of labour between the AU and regional economic communities</p></li>
<li><p>how best to use the organisation to shape Africa’s place in the world. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The financial dependency issue will be tackled by the African Union <a href="https://au.int/en/executivecouncil">Executive Council</a> in July.</p>
<p>In my view, there is likely to be progress on some of these issues and stalling on others. What’s at stake is Africa’s place in the world and averting harm to the continent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199791/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ulf Engel receives research funding from the German Research Council, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, and the EU Commission. </span></em></p>Member states need to arrive at binding, transparent and enforceable priorities to see progress.Ulf Engel, Professor, Institute of African Studies, University of LeipzigLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1983162023-02-10T09:09:16Z2023-02-10T09:09:16ZHenry Kissinger: history will judge the former US secretary of state’s southern African interventions to be a failure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507529/original/file-20230201-22-xvmqx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former American Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Henry Kissinger, who sexed up the art of diplomacy in the eight years between 1969 and 1977, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67574495">has died</a> at the age of 100.</p>
<p>In the obituaries that have been written, some laud Kissinger’s role in the shaping of East-West relations while he was in office as US Secretary of State. And many in their commentary on the decades beyond call him a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24916333#metadata_info_tab_contents">“statesman”</a>. </p>
<p>Radical critics have pointed to Kissinger’s ruthless methods – like <a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB437/">encouraging the coup</a> in Chile in September, 1973 – and called for him to be <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/community/bookreviews/hitchens.htm">put on trial for “war crimes”</a>.</p>
<p>Traditionally, diplomacy was staid – a near-hidden enterprise for grey-suited men who (mostly by intuition) understood the grave matters of war and peace. Kissinger turned it into a site of celebrity, the jet-set and expert opinion. The world watched where he went.</p>
<p>Kissinger’s diplomatic achievements were quite astonishing – the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/rapprochement-china">recognition of China</a> (1971/72) by the US was simply breathtaking. But domestically more important was America’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/vietnam-war-how-us-involvement-has-influenced-foreign-policy-decisions-over-50-years-194951">withdrawal from Vietnam</a> (1973) and the Nixon administration <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45181235#metadata_info_tab_contents">policy of détente</a> (easing of hostility) with the Soviet Union, which led to a series of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Strategic-Arms-Limitation-Talks">strategic arms limitation talks</a>.</p>
<p>These helped to secure Kissinger’s global brand. But his track record in the global south – especially in Africa – is dismal. </p>
<p>Not a little of Kissinger’s fame – or infamy, depending on the particular issue at hand – was facilitated by <a href="https://adst.org/2016/03/on-the-road-again-kissingers-shuttle-diplomacy/">“shuttle diplomacy”</a>, a tactic first used in the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Yom-Kippur-War">Yom Kippur War of 1973</a>. In an effort to mediate between the warring Egypt and Israel, Kissinger very publicly jetted between the two countries. </p>
<p>A year later, a form of shuttle diplomacy was necessary in southern Africa as it became plain that Kissinger had misread the region’s place in world affairs and its politics.</p>
<p>This was evident from a 1969 leaked policy document which had set out America’s approach to regional affairs. The policy recommended that the US “tilt” towards the region’s white-ruled and colonial regimes to protect US economic (and strategic) interests. </p>
<p>As the grand narrative of Kissinger’s life story is written, his southern African interventions must be judged a failure as he neither ended colonialism nor minority rule in the region. </p>
<h2>White minority rule</h2>
<p>Famously, Kissinger’s <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj1y9zXlPT8AhXSMcAKHfREAEkQFnoECCgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fworldrestored00kiss&usg=AOvVaw1bBVPkUufYxYxQco7LwSFE">doctoral thesis</a> at Harvard was on the diplomacy of the Congress of Vienna (1814-1815). He argued that “legitimacy” in international affairs rested on establishing a balance between powerful states rather than promoting justice. </p>
<p>But 19th century Europe was no guide to managing 20th century southern Africa, when the legitimacy of states was seized with liberation rather than the niceties of big power diplomacy.</p>
<p>In April 1974, a coup in Lisbon had signalled an <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000011345">end to Portuguese colonialism in Africa</a>. This exposed the vulnerability of white rule in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) and South African controlled South West Africa (now Namibia). Although hidden at the time, it is nowadays clear that the events in Lisbon helped to prime the fire that was to come to South Africa.</p>
<p>With the stability of the “white South” under threat, US policy required rethinking.</p>
<p>It was Cuba’s intervention <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-30-years-since-cuito-cuanavale-how-the-battle-redefined-southern-africa-78134">in Angola</a> that helped Kissinger reframe Washington’s approach to the region in Cold War terms. South Africa and the United States supported the rebel Unita movement to fight the government of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Popular-Movement-for-the-Liberation-of-Angola">MPLA</a>) which was allied to Soviet Union. </p>
<p>It required drawing the apartheid regime closer while, simultaneously, urging change in Zimbabwe and Namibia.</p>
<p>The shuttle started with a speech in Lusaka, Zambia, which put pressure on white-ruled Rhodesia to accept the idea of “majority rule”. More gently, Kissinger asked South Africa to announce a timetable to achieve “self-determination” in Namibia. Kissinger then travelled to Tanzania to make a similar address.</p>
<p>A series of high-profile meetings followed with apartheid’s then prime minister, John Vorster. These took place in Germany and Switzerland. The record of these encounters make interesting reading. Over dinner on 23 June 1976, the ice was broken over a racist joke which established a bonhomie between a dozen white men who deliberated on the future of a sub-continent of black people for two hours.</p>
<p>The apartheid regime had catapulted directly into Kissinger’s star-studded orbit.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/document/0314/1553485.pdf">official record</a> of the talks suggests the South African delegation appear dazed. Were they overwhelmed by the occasion, or were they reeling from the events the previous week in <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-epochal-1976-uprisings-shouldnt-be-reduced-to-a-symbolic-ritual-185073">Soweto</a>, when apartheid police killed unarmed school children protesting against the imposition of the Afrikaans language as a medium of instruction? </p>
<p>For their part, the American side seemed keen to learn – at an early moment in the proceedings, Kissinger declared that he was “trying to understand”; at another, he was being “analytical”.</p>
<p>True to diplomatic form, apartheid was not discussed even though some attention was given to South West Africa. The discussion remained focused on Rhodesia.</p>
<p>Eventually a strategy was agreed: Vorster would get the recalcitrant Rhodesians to agree on majority rule; Kissinger would get the Zambians and the Tanzanians to support the deal; movement on the Namibian issue would be slower.</p>
<p>The high moment of the entire exercise was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1976/09/18/archives/new-jersey-pages-kissingers-meeting-with-vorster-opens-on-a-hopeful.html">Kissinger’s September 1976 visit</a> to Pretoria. By happenstance, Rhodesia’s prime minister, Ian Smith, was scheduled to be in town to watch a rugby match.</p>
<p>The New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1976/09/21/archives/johannesburg-news-and-notes-vorster-is-hopeful-over-rhodesia.html">reported</a> that Kissinger was received with a small guard of honour – of black soldiers – at the Waterkloof Air Base when his plane landed. And Kissinger and his entourage – including the all-important press – set up camp in Pretoria’s Burgerspark Hotel.</p>
<p>For four days an increasingly isolated and internationally condemned South Africa basked in the spotlight of world attention – undoubtedly, it was the high point of apartheid’s diplomacy. </p>
<p>The drama of the weekend turned less on whether Kissinger met black leaders who were critical of apartheid – the activist editor <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/recipient/percy-tseliso-peter-qoboza-1938">Percy Qoboza</a> was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1976/09/21/archives/johannesburg-news-and-notes-vorster-is-hopeful-over-rhodesia.html">the only one</a> – than on whether Kissinger, as an envoy of the US, could meet directly with Smith, whose regime was not internationally recognised.</p>
<p>In the event the two men met for four hours on the Sunday morning, and a deal was sealed. A tearful Smith, then prime minister, announced that Rhodesia would accept the principle of majority rule. </p>
<p>But the follow up processes were fumbled. The illegal regime limped on for another four years.</p>
<p>Kissinger had two further visits to South Africa. One was in September 1982 when he delivered the <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/publications/saiia-international-affairs-bulletin-vol-6-no-3-1982/">keynote address</a> at a conference organised by the South African Institute of International Affairs. The second was when (with others) he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/15/world/kissinger-fails-with-zulus.html">unsuccessfully tried</a> to solve the crisis over Inkatha Freedom Party leader <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mangosuthu-G-Buthelezi">Mangosuthu Buthelezi</a>’s rejection of South Africa’s interim constitution in April 1994. </p>
<p>Kissinger’s interest in southern Africa in the mid-1970s was predicated on the idea that balance would return if the interests of the strong were restored. He failed to understand that the struggle for justice was changing the world – and diplomacy itself. </p>
<p><em>Article was updated to reflect Henry Kissinger’s death.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Vale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>He failed to understand that the struggle for justice and freedom in southern Africa was changing the world - and diplomacy itself.Peter Vale, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for the Advancement of Scholarship, University of Pretoria, and Visiting Professor of International Relations, Federal University of Santa Maria, Brazil, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946262022-12-20T17:30:05Z2022-12-20T17:30:05ZNZ report card 2022: some foreign bragging rights but room for improvement at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498871/original/file-20221205-73820-8y8uz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5321%2C3545&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s that time of year when school and university students eagerly (or nervously) await their end-of-year results – but also an opportunity to see where the country in general might have passed or failed.</p>
<p>Although international and domestic indices and rankings should be read with a degree of caution – measurements and metrics only tell us so much, after all – it’s still possible to trace the nation’s ups and downs relative to past years.</p>
<h2>Good global rankings</h2>
<p>Overall, the country held its own internationally when it came to democratic values and standards. <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021">Transparency International</a> ranked us top, equal with Denmark and Finland, for being relatively corruption-free.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/GPI-2022-web.pdf">Global Peace Index</a> placed New Zealand second best in the world for safety and security, low domestic and international conflict, and degree of militarisation. And human rights and civil liberties watchdog Freedom House again <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/new-zealand/freedom-world/2022">scored New Zealand</a> 99 out of 100 – three Scandinavian countries scored a perfect 100.</p>
<p>On the <a href="https://www.elmundofinanciero.com/adjuntos/98982/WIMF-2022.pdf">Index of Moral Freedom</a> (a libertarian think tank that benchmarks countries’ levels of “individual
freedom regarding ethics and morality”), New Zealand moved to 14th, up five places on 2020.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GGGR_2022.pdf">Global Gender Gap Report</a> recorded New Zealand holding its position as the fourth-most-gender-equal country. New Zealand stayed in seventh place in the World Justice Project’s <a href="https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/country/2022/New%20Zealand">Rule of Law Index</a>. We went up one spot to 13th on the <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/country-insights#/ranks">Human Development Index</a> of life expectancy, education and income.</p>
<p>New Zealand also remained sixth best for internet affordability, availability, readiness and relevance, according to the <a href="https://impact.economist.com/projects/inclusive-internet-index/2022">Economist Intelligence Unit</a>. And on the <a href="https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo-pub-2000-2022-section3-en-gii-2022-results-global-innovation-index-2022-15th-edition.pdf">Global Innovation Index</a>, we came in at 24th out of 132 economies – two spots better than last year.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1572556415381774337"}"></div></p>
<h2>Freedom and happiness</h2>
<p>On the other side of the ledger, New Zealand’s rankings fell in a variety of political, economic and health indices.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.heritage.org/index/">Index for Economic Freedom</a>, for instance, which covers everything from property rights to financial freedom, placed us fifth, three spots below last year. And we fell three places to 11th in the Reporters Without Borders <a href="https://rsf.org/en/index">Press Freedom Index</a>.</p>
<p>New Zealanders, it seems, aren’t as happy as they were. We fell a place in the <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2022/happiness-benevolence-and-trust-during-covid-19-and-beyond/#ranking-of-happiness-2019-2021">World Happiness Report</a> to tenth-cheeriest place – although we’re still a bit happier than Australia. The <a href="https://www.socialprogress.org/global-index-2022-results">Social Progress Index</a> had us fall from 12th to 15th position, and we dropped 11 spots in the 2022 <a href="https://www.imd.org/centers/world-competitiveness-center/rankings/world-competitiveness/">Global Competitiveness Report</a>, down to 31.</p>
<p>A little surprisingly, New Zealand placed 41st on the <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/GTI-2022-web-04112022.pdf">Global Terrorism Index</a>, apparently worse than Russia at 44. Although New Zealand recently reduced its <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/479798/new-zealand-drops-terror-threat-level-to-low">terror threat level</a> from medium to low, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/03/man-shot-dead-in-new-zealand-after-injuring-people-in-supermarket-police-say">2021 supermarket attack</a> in Auckland and the ongoing fallout from the Christchurch attacks will have affected our ranking.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-covid-variant-soup-looming-new-zealand-urgently-needs-another-round-of-vaccine-boosters-193616">With a COVID 'variant soup' looming, New Zealand urgently needs another round of vaccine boosters</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Also maybe surprisingly, Bloomberg’s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/?leadSource=uverify%20wall">COVID resilience index</a>, which ranks the “best and worst places to be as the world enters the next COVID phase”, placed New Zealand at 35. This was possibly due to the Omicron wave and increase in deaths since reopening borders, rather than a verdict on the country’s overall response.</p>
<p>And New Zealand continues to struggle environmentally, falling from 19th to 26th on the 2022 <a href="https://epi.yale.edu/epi-results/2022/country/nzl">Yale Environmental Performance Index</a>, which measures environmental health and ecosystem vitality.</p>
<p>While our overall assessment on the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/new-zealand/">Climate Action Tracker</a> (which measures progress on meeting agreed global warming targets) hasn’t changed, it’s still categorised as “highly insufficient”. The <a href="https://ccpi.org/country/nzl/">Climate Change Performance Index</a> is a little more generous, pegging New Zealand at 33rd, up two spots on last year.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1565595381345419264"}"></div></p>
<h2>Mixed news on the home front</h2>
<p>Domestically, New Zealand recorded better-than-expected results on four fronts:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>unemployment hit a <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-september-2022-quarter/">very low 3.3%</a> in September, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/unemployment-rates-oecd-updated-november-2022.htm">better than most comparable</a> OECD countries.</p></li>
<li><p>median weekly earnings from wages and salaries rose <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/weekly-earnings-rise-as-more-in-full-time-employment/">by 8.8% to NZ$1,189</a>, the largest increase recorded since records began in 1998</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://coronialservices.justice.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Publications/Media-release-Deputy-Chief-Coroner-251022.pdf">suicides decreased</a> in the year to June to 538, down from 607 the year before and significantly lower than the average rate over the past 13 years</p></li>
<li><p>incarceration rates continued to fall, with a prisoner population of <a href="https://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/statistics/quarterly_prison_statistics/prison_stats_june_2022">7,728</a> (as of June), well down on the near 10,000 figure from 2020.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>On the other hand, inflation is rising. While lower than <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-4-october-2022.htm">October’s OECD average</a>, an <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/consumers-price-index-cpi/">annual rate of 7.2%</a> is still high by recent standards. Related to this, and either good or bad news according to your perspective, annual average house price growth <a href="https://content.knightfrank.com/research/84/documents/en/global-house-price-index-q2-2022-9334.pdf">slowed to 5.5%</a> in the year to June. Real prices are expected to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/new-zealand-house-prices-down-75-year-reinz-2022-11-14/">drop considerably</a> from their 2021 peak, however.</p>
<p>Those falls don’t necessarily make houses affordable for many people, although the stock of public housing continues to increase by over 500 dwellings each year to a recent total of <a href="https://www.hud.govt.nz/stats-and-insight/the-government-housing-dashboard/housing-dashboard-at-a-glance/">76,834</a>. Even so, <a href="https://www.salvationarmy.org.nz/research-policy/social-policy-parliamentary-unit/state-nation-2022/housing">demand for social housing</a> is still growing. Recent <a href="https://orangesky.org.nz/lets-talk-about-it/">research suggests</a> one in six New Zealanders have been homeless, and about 41,000 don’t have adequate access to housing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalitions-kingmakers-and-a-rugby-world-cup-the-calculations-already-influencing-next-years-nz-election-195010">Coalitions, kingmakers and a Rugby World Cup: the calculations already influencing next year’s NZ election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rich and poor</h2>
<p>New Zealand’s poverty rate compares poorly with <a href="https://data.oecd.org/inequality/poverty-rate.htm">other OECD countries,</a> and <a href="https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/research/child-poverty-in-nz/2022-child-poverty-report-overview-and-selected-findings.pdf">child poverty</a> remains a critical challenge. However, in the year to June 2021, the <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/child-poverty-statistics-show-all-measures-trending-downwards-over-the-last-three-years">percentage of children</a> living in poor households had declined since 2018. </p>
<p>At the other end of the scale, the wealthy continue to hold the <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/distribution-of-wealth-across-new-zealand-households-remains-unchanged-between-2015-and-2021">lion’s share of assets</a>. The top 10% of households hold about 50% of the nation’s total household net worth (the value of a household’s assets, such as real estate, retirement savings and shares, less its debts). Conversely, the lowest 20% hold just 1% of total household assets, but 11% of total liabilities.</p>
<p>In short, while New Zealand can claim some bragging rights in many important areas and is making modest progress in others, that’s far from the whole picture. Any progress we make should not be taken for granted.</p>
<p>The final verdict has to be: a good effort, but room for improvement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194626/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the year ends, how has New Zealand fared on global and domestic measurements, from social and economic freedoms to tackling poverty and homelessness?Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.