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Articles on Prediction

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To find out how well social scientists can predict societal change, researchers ran the largest forecasting initiative in the field’s history. Here’s what they found. (Shutterstock)

The limits of expert judgment: Lessons from social science forecasting during the pandemic

A sobering picture emerges from a study testing social scientists’ ability to predict societal change during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Predicting whether a child will commit a crime before their 18th birthday is fraught with problems. Shutterstock/Tomsickova Tatyana

Can we predict who will turn to crime?

Machine learning is being used to see if it’s possible to predict whether someone will commit a crime some time in the future. But does this risk condemning people for a crime they haven’t committed?

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