tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/sarah-palin-1665/articlesSarah Palin – The Conversation2023-05-26T12:28:31Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060482023-05-26T12:28:31Z2023-05-26T12:28:31ZNot all political comedy is equal – how comics can either depress turnout or activate voters in 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528359/original/file-20230525-22956-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=119%2C119%2C4528%2C3143&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump's many missteps made him an easy target for amateur jokesters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protester-dressed-in-a-trump-costume-at-washington-square-news-photo/1229152211?adppopup=true">Ron Adar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Biden is old. Trump has weird hair. Biden mangles the English language. Trump barely seems to understand it. </p>
<p>There’s no question that it is easy to make fun of the two top presidential candidates for 2024. </p>
<p>But as I explain in my new book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Trump-Was-a-Joke-How-Satire-Made-Sense-of-a-President-Who-Didnt/Mcclennen/p/book/9781032278018">Trump Was a Joke: How Satire Made Sense of a President Who Didn’t</a>,” not all political comedy is equal. </p>
<p>Jokes that focus on physical traits – fat bellies, bald heads, bumbling speech – foster negative candidate views that can exhaust voters, as does mocking scandals, whether it’s the mishandling of classified documents, sexual misconduct or family drama. </p>
<p>In contrast, satire – which centers on faulty logic, abuses of power and flawed thinking – can compel citizens to volunteer, donate to campaigns and vote.</p>
<h2>Averting apathy</h2>
<p>A key factor to watch this election cycle is voter fatigue. </p>
<p>There was <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/01/28/turnout-soared-in-2020-as-nearly-two-thirds-of-eligible-u-s-voters-cast-ballots-for-president/">record turnout</a> during the 2020 election. Nearly two-thirds of eligible voters cast a vote, 7 percentage points higher than in 2016. However, <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/639900087/Yahoonews-Toplines-Crosstabs-20230417">recent polling data</a> suggests that 2024 may be different, with 38% of voters saying they were already exhausted at the prospect of another matchup between Trump and Biden.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.12.003">Voter fatigue</a> typically translates into lower voter turnout, and low voter turnout correlates to weaker democratic institutions. </p>
<p>This is where comedy comes in. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17439760.2011.577087">Humor can alleviate</a> depression, fear, sadness and other negative emotions.</p>
<p>The catch, though, is that even if humor combats exhaustion, it might replace it with negative views of the candidates and cynicism about the entire democratic system.</p>
<h2>Mocking leads to burnout</h2>
<p>Political comedy is complex and highly varied, but it can be divided roughly into two camps: <a href="https://bigthink.com/articles/its-not-just-a-joke-the-ethics-of-mocking-someone-appearance/">mockery</a> and <a href="https://liberalarts.oregonstate.edu/wlf/what-satire">satire</a>. Mocking comedy tends to negatively affect political participation in two ways. It can create negative views of candidates, and this, in turn, can lead to voter apathy.</p>
<p>Communications professor S. Robert Lichter and political scientists Jody C. Baumgartner and Jonathan S. Morris surveyed years of joke data in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Politics-Is-a-Joke-How-TV-Comedians-Are-Remaking-Political-Life/Lichter-Baumgartner-Morris/p/book/9780813347172">their 2015 book</a>, “Politics is a Joke!” They concluded that the political humor on late-night television was inherently negative and tended to focus more on scandals than on policy. What’s more, they found that there was a connection between negative jokes and negative public perceptions of candidates.</p>
<p>The catch, though, is that voter apathy will happen only if voters feel burned out by both candidates, because that leads to exhaustion with the system they represent.</p>
<p>During the 2008 election, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin found herself the butt of countless jokes, while then-presidential candidate Barack Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, were largely able to duck the searing critiques of comics.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vSOLz1YBFG0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tina Fey’s first impression of Sarah Palin aired on ‘Saturday Night Live’ in September 2008.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41345969">Research shows that</a> Tina Fey’s impression of Palin on “Saturday Night Live” as a fool who was ill-equipped for national office changed perceptions of Palin – and, most importantly, were even more likely to negatively affect the views of independents and Republicans.</p>
<p>After Trump was elected in 2016, <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2017/0512/Is-edgier-political-comedy-making-America-worse">some worried</a> that late-night comedy had become too partisan, which could make it less effective and more divisive. </p>
<p>Yet, concerns that late night leans too much to the left – and therefore has a negative effect on politics – may miss the fact that jokes that mock Trump can help remind Democrats that they don’t want him back in office. Similarly, right-wing memes and mockery of Biden – the sort of humor that can be found on <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23440579/comedy-wars-greg-gutfeld-jon-stewart-stephen-colbert-liberal-conservative">Greg Gutfeld’s comedy show on Fox News</a> – can motivate Trump voters to support their candidate. </p>
<p>In the end, it is the jokes that suggest that both candidates are not worth voting for that have the highest risk of depressing turnout.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man in suit sits in chair while grinning." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some see ‘Gutfeld!’ as a conservative answer to the left-leaning bias of late-night television.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/greg-gutfeld-hosts-fncs-gutfeld-at-fox-news-channel-news-photo/1466195423?adppopup=true">Steven Ferdman/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Satire spurs voter engagement</h2>
<p>In contrast with mocking, negative comedy, satirical comedy uses ironic wit to engage critical thinking about the status quo. This means that there is a marked difference between most late-night comedy and the specific genre of political satire, which can be found on “The Daily Show” and “Last Week Tonight.”</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2014.891133">Research by communication professors Hoon Lee and Nojin Kwak</a> indicated that satirical comedy engages viewers and makes them more interested in being politically active. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqaa041">Another recent study</a> found that humor increases the likelihood to share political information with others and enhances information recall – both of which increase voter engagement. And audiences of political satire <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X05280074">have been shown</a> to have more confidence in their political views and a better understanding of the issues.</p>
<p>Furthermore, satirical comedy creates a community ready to engage and participate in politics. In her 2011 book “<a href="https://iupress.org/9780253222817/satire-and-dissent/">Satire and Dissent</a>,” English professor Amber Day explains that satirical comedy has “an integral community-building function, which is a crucial component of nurturing a political movement.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Porta potties with signs reading 'Joe Biden voting booth.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joe Biden is targeted with some good old-fashioned toilet humor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/toilets-labels-joe-biden-voting-booth-sit-at-a-trump-news-photo/1229014777?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After Trump was elected in 2016, left-wing filmmaker and activist Michael Moore called for Trump’s critics to <a href="https://twitter.com/mmflint/status/828878620563222528?lang=ga">form an army of comedy</a>. He knew from his own work as a satirist and activist that politically engaged comedy can help mobilize communities. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12501">Academic research confirms</a> Moore’s instincts, showing that people who consume satire are more likely to attend rallies, discuss politics, donate to a political party, wear political buttons and vote than viewers of traditional late-night comedy shows.</p>
<p>When actor Kal Penn guest hosted “The Daily Show” in March 2023, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDye3lPbXYg">he did a segment</a> on how the Republican Party is fixated on “woke culture.” He performed a spoof of the hit TV series “House,” in which he tries to diagnose a patient with “woke mind virus,” asking the patient questions like, “Are you pissed off that Mr. Potato Head doesn’t have a penis?”</p>
<p>He then jokingly explains that being woke “is the greatest threat facing civilization” – a position held by many on the right, but one that becomes especially absurd in the context of Penn’s skit. </p>
<p>These kinds of bits have the potential to help the young voting demographic watching these clips engage with the election and vote. They also help frame political positions in ways that make the stakes of the next election easy to grasp. </p>
<p>So, as an exhausted electorate heads into the 2024 election, the question won’t be whether there will be political comedy – it will be whether it mocks the country’s democratic system or helps make it stronger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophia A. McClennen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While derision and mockery permeate airwaves and social media feeds, satire holds the key to creating a more informed, engaged electorate.Sophia A. McClennen, Professor of International Affairs and Comparative Literature, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1771422022-02-15T20:50:10Z2022-02-15T20:50:10ZAppeal in Sarah Palin’s libel loss could set up Supreme Court test of decades-old media freedom rule<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446600/original/file-20220215-28026-93iolm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C34%2C5683%2C3743&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sarah Palin speaks to the media. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-alaska-governor-sarah-palin-speaks-with-reporters-as-news-photo/1370587158?adppopup=true">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To the numerous challenges facing the U.S. media in recent years, add a libel case against The New York Times – lost by Sarah Palin, but now seemingly headed to appeal and perhaps on to the highest court in the land. </p>
<p>On Feb. 15, 2022, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/judge-who-dealt-palin-loss-new-york-times-case-known-maverick-2022-02-15/">jury rejected Palin’s claim</a>. As it happened, its verdict was more or less moot. The presiding judge had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/14/business/sarah-palin-new-york-times.html">already said he would dismiss the case</a> on the grounds that the former Alaska governor’s legal team had failed to reach the bar for proving she had been defamed.</p>
<p>A Times editor admitted a mistake in suggesting <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/opinion/steve-scalise-congress-shot-alexandria-virginia.html">in a 2017 opinion piece</a> that there was a link between Palin’s rhetoric and a mass shooting. But under the so-called <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/new_york_times_v_sullivan_(1964)">Sullivan standard</a> – a rule in place for nearly 60 years that makes it difficult for public figures to successfully sue for defamation – neither the jury nor the judge considered the error significant enough for Palin to win her case. </p>
<p>But in reaching his decision in the Palin case, the federal judge suggested that it was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/palins-legal-fight-with-new-york-times-is-far-over-2022-02-15/">likely not to be the end of the matter</a> – indeed, an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sarah-palin-new-york-times-lawsuit-supreme-court-defamation-actual-malice-2022-2">appeal is expected</a>.</p>
<p>And that has defenders of a free press worried. Legal scholars <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.lsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6870&context=lalrev">note that recent opinions</a> by Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch favor overturning the Sullivan standard – a move that would take away a key protection for the press against libel suits by vindictive public officials.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.radford.edu/content/chbs/home/comm/faculty/bios.html#par_text_11">a media historian</a>, I can see the Palin case providing a vehicle to return libel laws back to a time when it was much easier for public figures to sue the press.</p>
<h2>What is ‘actual malice’?</h2>
<p>Before <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1963/39">1964’s Sullivan standard</a>, the libel landscape in the U.S. consisted of a patchwork of state laws that made it easy for political figures to selectively persecute newspapers and public speakers who espoused opposing or unpopular views.</p>
<p>For example in 1949, John Henry McCray, a Black editor from South Carolina, <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/news/local_state_news/a-communitys-voice-allen-university-students-to-research-role-of-john-mccray-black-press/article_9d3a1b52-ec9b-11ea-b3b5-6773aadccaaa.html">served two months on a chain gang</a> after being charged with criminal libel for writing a story about a racially charged execution. White publications reporting the same story were not charged. </p>
<p>Similarly, in <a href="https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/commentary/fl-op-com-edmonson-libel-law-broward-20191029-lxpbg2355fflrlck34a7y6d62a-story.html">a 1955 libel case</a>, Dr. Von Mizell, a Black surgeon and NAACP official, was ordered to pay a US$15,000 fine for writing in opposition to a Florida state legislator’s idea of abolishing public schools instead of integrating them.</p>
<p>Then came <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1963/39">the Sullivan case</a>. It centered around several tiny mistakes in a civil rights advertisement carried by The New York Times. L.B. Sullivan, a public official not even named in the advertisement, sued for defamation, and the case went from Alabama to the U.S. Supreme Court. </p>
<p>In setting the Sullivan standard in 1964, the Supreme Court said in effect that it ought to be difficult for any official at the federal or the state level to prove that a falsehood was libelous enough – and personally damaging enough – to surmount First Amendment protections. </p>
<p>The court said a public official could not win a libel lawsuit by citing minor mistakes, technical inaccuracies or even outright negligence. Instead, under the Sullivan standard, a public official had to prove that there was “<a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/889/actual-malice">actual malice</a>,” which means that a critic knowingly published something false or was in reckless disregard of the truth.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/new_york_times_v_sullivan_(1964)">court insisted</a> that “debate on public issues should be uninhibited, robust and wide-open, and that it may well include vehement, caustic and sometimes unpleasantly sharp attacks on public officials.”</p>
<h2>‘No relation to the Constitution’</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-originalism-debunking-the-myths-148488">Originalists</a> on the current Supreme Court – that is, those justices who believe that the Constitution should be interpreted as it was by those crafting the original document – seemingly disagree.</p>
<p>Justice Thomas, in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-1542_ihdk.pdf">a 2019 opinion</a>, suggested the Sullivan ruling failed to take into account “the Constitution’s original meaning.” He followed this up <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/20-1063">in a 2021 opinion</a> that stated the requirement on public figures to establish actual malice bears “no relation to the text, history, or structure of the Constitution.”</p>
<p>Some legal scholars <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.lsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6870&context=lalrev">have argued</a> that originalism doesn’t cut much ice when it comes to First Amendment protections. After it passed in 1791, the First Amendment was open to so many state interpretations that there is no agreement on what the accepted interpretation of the day was.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, should Palin appeal against the latest ruling, it is likely that the case could reach a Supreme Court in which at least two justices seem primed to challenge the decades-old Sullivan rule.</p>
<p>Should their views prevail in the highest court of the land, it could chill the freedom of the press for conservative and liberal news organizations alike.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand key political developments, each week.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s politics newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Kovarik is a member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the Society of Environmental Journalists. He also teaches Communications law at Radford University, a public institution in Virginia. </span></em></p>Under the Sullivan standard, a public official has to prove that there was ‘actual malice’ in defamation cases. That could be challenged in the Supreme Court.Bill Kovarik, Professor of Communication, Radford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1418612020-07-02T17:08:35Z2020-07-02T17:08:35ZDon’t expect Biden’s pick of Kamala Harris for VP to make or break the 2020 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345132/original/file-20200701-159803-a02pzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C14%2C3334%2C2201&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden removes a face mask before speaking at a Delaware rally on June 30.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Joe-Biden/62b4930123894bf2bf7ad948b7205a4c/3/0">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has <a href="https://apnews.com/5ac8fff8bbe1c70479604e3ff62ecb10">picked Sen. Kamala Harris as his vice presidential candidate</a>, but here’s a reality check: Running mates have very little direct effect on voters. When people go to the polls, they are primarily expressing a preference for the presidential candidate, not the second person on the ticket. </p>
<p>In our new book, “<a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/978-0-7006-2970-1.html">Do Running Mates Matter?</a>,” my collaborator <a href="http://www.kylekopko.com/">Kyle Kopko</a> and I analyze half a century of political science survey data to examine what effect a running mate has on the success of presidential candidates.</p>
<p>In general, voters are very unlikely to choose a presidential ticket simply because they like or dislike the second-in-command.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Picking Jack Kemp, right, as his running mate didn’t help 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole win the election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-bob-dole-and-vice-news-photo/51980826">J. David Ake/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On rare occasions, voters can be swayed by running mates who are much more – or less – popular than their party’s main candidate. For instance, John Kerry’s vice presidential candidate in 2004, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, was relatively popular with voters early in the campaign. And, as our research shows, Edwards’ popularity made voters more likely to vote for Kerry, at least in the short term.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/17/bidens-top-12-running-mates-ranked-134256">Some political analysts</a> believe a vice presidential selection <a href="http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-veepstakes-handicapping-bidens-choices/">could draw key voters</a> from that person’s own demographic group or <a href="https://manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781784993382/">their home state</a>. We found that rarely happens, either.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>However, we found that voters view vice presidential choices as new information about the main candidate – and that information can shift voters’ views and change votes. The candidate’s choice gives voters insight into who the candidate really is, what he or she stands for and how the person might operate once in office.</p>
<p>Take the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/votes.html">2008 presidential election</a>, for example, when Democrat Barack Obama ran against Republican John McCain with Joe Biden and Sarah Palin as their respective vice presidential nominees.</p>
<p>In our book, we demonstrate that voters who doubted Palin’s qualifications also were more likely to doubt McCain’s judgment and think he was too old to be president. As a result, they were less likely to vote for McCain.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John McCain, right, picked Sarah Palin, second from left, as his running mate in 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:McCainPalin1.jpg">Rachael Dickson/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Conversely, our analysis also showed that voters who believed Biden was well qualified for office were more likely to approve of Obama’s judgment – and less likely to think he was too young to be president. As a result, they were more likely to vote for Obama.</p>
<p>In 2020, Joe Biden is already well known as an experienced former vice president, so it’s unlikely his running mate will outshine him on her own. But with this choice, Biden has a valuable opportunity to define himself as a candidate – and a potential president – in his own right. </p>
<p>What does he really stand for? What are his political priorities? And does he have the good judgment to be president? </p>
<p>Biden’s selection of Harris will help voters to answer these questions – and to decide whether he deserves their support in November. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated and adapted version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-biden-naming-cabinet-before-election-would-be-a-big-risk-137741">an earlier article</a> by Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko originally published on May 7, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141861/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In general, a candidate’s choice for second-in-command doesn’t directly swing voters. But it can reveal insights into who the candidate really is and how they might operate once in office.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1377412020-05-07T12:24:52Z2020-05-07T12:24:52ZFor Biden, naming Cabinet before election would be a big risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333153/original/file-20200506-49589-gg63yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C0%2C5187%2C3455&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who's on his list? And would it matter?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/88876166@N00/49331527821">Phil Roeder/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In addition to the rumblings about whom he’ll name as his vice presidential candidate, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden recently surprised many political observers by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-says-hes-already-choosing-a-presidential-transition-team/2020/04/17/63cbb5b4-805e-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html">suggesting that he might also announce</a> the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-joe-biden-will-appoint-to-top-cabinet-positions-axios-2020-3">selection of some Cabinet members</a> before November’s election. This would be an unusual move that poses some risks – as well as rewards.</p>
<p>Typically, presidential candidates wait until after winning the election to name their Cabinet members – the heads of the government departments like State, Treasury and Commerce – and other key White House staff. Though <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/26/opinion/essay-the-great-mentioning.html">sometimes they offer hints</a>, campaigns worry an early announcement might make it seem the candidate is assuming a win, taking the voters’ support for granted. </p>
<p>In addition, some legal experts have wondered whether announcing Cabinet picks <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/05/donald-trump-cabinet-picks-convention-announcement-legal-questions/">might violate campaign finance laws</a> because a presidential candidate could be viewed as offering someone a prominent position within the White House in exchange for their political support – effectively, a bribe.</p>
<p>Biden has assured voters that he will have an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/biden-campaign-covid.html">experienced White House team</a> – one that’s ready to help him lead on day one and to steer the ship of state if Biden, age 77, were to experience health problems or <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129">retire after one term in office</a>.</p>
<p>Given these factors, would announcing his Cabinet early help Biden to win the election? Bluntly put, no one knows for sure, especially in the extraordinary circumstances of an election-year pandemic. There’s just no modern precedent. </p>
<p>But from our research, we have a good idea of what to expect. That’s because in our forthcoming book “<a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/runningmates">Do Running Mates Matter?</a>” we look at the effects of the one team member that every presidential candidate names before the election: the vice presidential candidate. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333164/original/file-20200506-49589-vg515j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Picking Jack Kemp, right, as his running mate didn’t help 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole win the election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-bob-dole-and-vice-news-photo/51980826">J. David Ake/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>There’s little direct effect on voters</h2>
<p>For our book, we analyzed a half-century of political science survey data to examine what effect a running mate has on the success of presidential candidates.</p>
<p>In short, we found that running mates have very little direct effect on voters. When people go to the polls, they are primarily expressing a preference for the presidential candidate, not the second person on the ticket. </p>
<p>On rare occasions, <a href="https://manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781784993382/">voters can be swayed</a> by running mates who are much more – or less – popular than their party’s main candidate. For instance, John Kerry’s vice presidential candidate in 2004, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, was relatively popular with voters early in the campaign. And, as our research shows, Edwards’ popularity made voters more likely to vote for Kerry, at least in the short term.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/17/bidens-top-12-running-mates-ranked-134256">Some political</a> <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2015/08/five-reasons-why-kasich-rubio-right-2016-ticket-myra-adams/">analysts believe</a> a vice presidential selection <a href="http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/veepwatch-part-2-first-do-no-harm-our-vp-contenders/">could draw key voters</a> from their own demographic group or their home state. We found that rarely happens, either. </p>
<p>In general, a candidate’s choice for second-in-command does very little to directly swing voters, so we think it’s unlikely that lower-ranking picks, like for Cabinet posts, would make much difference at all.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333166/original/file-20200506-49579-yoso38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When John McCain, right, picked Sarah Palin, second from left, as his running mate in 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:McCainPalin1.jpg">Rachael Dickson/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shedding light on the candidate</h2>
<p>However, we found that voters view vice presidential choices as new information about the main candidate – and that information can shift voters’ views and change votes. The candidate’s choice gives voters insight into who the candidate really is, what he or she stands for, and how the person might operate once in office.</p>
<p>Take the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/votes.html">2008 presidential election</a>, for example, when Democrat Barack Obama ran against Republican John McCain with Joe Biden and Sarah Palin as their respective vice presidential nominees.</p>
<p>In our book, we explain that voters who doubted Palin’s qualifications also were more likely to doubt McCain’s judgment and think he was too old to be president. As a result, they were less likely to vote for McCain.</p>
<p>However, our analysis also showed that voters who believed Biden was well-qualified for office were more likely to approve of Obama’s judgment – and less likely to think he was too young to be president. As a result, they were more likely to vote for Obama.</p>
<p>Naming Cabinet members prior to the election might have a similar indirect effect. Depending on Biden’s choices, an early Cabinet announcement could indicate that the presumptive Democratic nominee would be ready with an experienced team to govern right from the start – or that he will give a job to anyone who can help him win the election, even if that person is not the right fit. </p>
<p>Those signals might gain – or lose – him some votes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316318/original/file-20200220-11017-15jqqp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C28%2C4774%2C2258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316318/original/file-20200220-11017-15jqqp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316318/original/file-20200220-11017-15jqqp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316318/original/file-20200220-11017-15jqqp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316318/original/file-20200220-11017-15jqqp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316318/original/file-20200220-11017-15jqqp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316318/original/file-20200220-11017-15jqqp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many of Biden’s primary election opponents have been suggested as possible Cabinet nominees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/debate?agreements=pa:77130&family=editorial&phrase=debate&recency=last24hours&sort=newest#license">Getty Images/Mario Tama</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A risky proposition</h2>
<p>Naming Cabinet members comes with other risks, too. It would give the incumbent, President Donald Trump, more targets to attack. And journalists would scrutinize Biden’s picks, as they do vice presidential selections. </p>
<p>If a prospective Cabinet nominee were linked to a scandal or a campaign trail embarrassment, that could hurt Biden’s campaign by bringing negative attention or distracting the media and voters from his primary message. At worst, a nominee’s struggles could call into question Biden’s judgment and ability to govern, potentially costing him votes. </p>
<p>Even if Biden wins, those campaign trail problems could make it less likely the Senate would later confirm the nominee to serve in the Cabinet.</p>
<p>In the short term, Biden’s surprise announcement that he might name Cabinet selections before November’s election has won him some welcome <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/493276-biden-assembling-white-house-transition-team">media coverage</a> amid the coronavirus pandemic. </p>
<p>But the risks of going through with this unprecedented move may outweigh the potential rewards: Cabinet picks are unlikely to help him win, and there is a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/05/06/biden-naming-cabinet-distraction-2020-referendum-trump-column/3086530001/">reasonable chance that at least one would backfire</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyle C. Kopko is affiliated with the Elizabethtown Borough Planning Commission, Lancaster County Hospital Authority, and the Elizabethtown Area Republican Committee.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Vice presidential picks don’t have much direct effect on campaigns, but can give voters insight on a candidate’s judgment and leadership ability. Early Cabinet selections are likely to be similar.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonKyle C. Kopko, Associate Professor of Political Science, Elizabethtown CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1149542019-04-09T10:46:52Z2019-04-09T10:46:52ZFox News isn’t the problem, it’s the media’s obsession with Fox News<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268185/original/file-20190408-2898-8n3x8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A security guard looks out of the the News Corp. headquarters in Midtown Manhattan, April 2017</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Disney-Fox/fc536c7f97d14d438d00273aa6aa31a8/13/0">AP/Mary Altaffer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The American press seems fixated on Fox News and its owners, the Murdoch family.</p>
<p>Recently, The New York Times purported to explain “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/03/magazine/rupert-murdoch-fox-news-trump.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share">How Rupert Murdoch’s Empire of Influence Remade the World</a>.” This followed The New Yorker’s investigation into the “<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/03/11/the-making-of-the-fox-news-white-house">making of the Fox News White House</a>.”</p>
<p>Both articles claim to reveal the true political impact of Fox News, and patriarch Rupert Murdoch, over contemporary politics. </p>
<p>And both articles would have delighted the late <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/18/528925119/roger-ailes-former-fox-news-ceo-dies-at-77">Roger Ailes, the founder of Fox News</a>. The pugnacious Ailes fostered a Fox News brand identity that continues to be reaffirmed by the respectable press years after his death. </p>
<p>Fox News, Ailes claimed, <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/24/roger-ailes-coworker-political-consultant-215185">would always remain the underdog</a> and be forever denigrated by mainstream rivals. Though Ailes was fired <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2017/05/10/foxs-bill-roger-ailes-settlements-now-45-million/101515930/">when credible accusations of sexual assault emerged</a>, the current Fox News lineup reflects much of Ailes’s original vision.</p>
<p>Like the Wizard of Oz, Roger Ailes inflated the image of his own potency and his network’s power. Recent events, such as the election of Donald Trump, apparently confirm the network’s influence. </p>
<p>Yet when we pull back the curtain, the evidence that Fox News, and Rupert Murdoch, created and sustained our current political moment, appears far more circumstantial. </p>
<p>And the idea that Fox News’ power emerges from an unprecedentedly close relationship with the Trump administration also falls apart under scrutiny.</p>
<h2>Failures, not victories</h2>
<p>Let’s begin with the idea that Trump’s 2016 victory can be attributed to Fox News. </p>
<p>Such an assertion would be a lot more believable if Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes had wanted Donald Trump to be the 2016 Republican nominee. But they didn’t. Both The New York Times and New Yorker pieces admit this.</p>
<p>So rather than put Trump in the White House, Ailes and Murdoch were unable to stop Republicans from voting for him. But this failure to persuade Republicans in 2016 isn’t really a surprise. </p>
<p>Let’s consider the record.</p>
<p>In 2008, the channel promoted other candidates, but <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/04/02/john-mccain-clinches-2008-republican-presidential-nomination-arizona-senator/537348001/">Republican voters selected John McCain</a>. McCain returned the antipathy, calling himself “<a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=0ng2DwAAQBAJ&pg=PT213&dq=a+Reagan+Republican%E2%80%A6+Not+a+talk+radio+or+Fox+News+Republican&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiM_9OS4bzhAhVQT30KHQOnARkQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=a%20Reagan%20Republican%E2%80%A6%20Not%20a%20talk%20radio%20or%20Fox%20News%20Republican&f=false">a Reagan Republican. … Not a talk radio or Fox News Republican.”</a></p>
<p>Similarly, in <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2012/05/mitt-clinches-gop-presidential-nod-076845">2012, Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination</a> despite not being supported by Fox News’ management. Those who point to Fox’s kingmaking powers seem to have forgotten that <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/six-reasons-why-rupert-murdoch-is-tweeting-for-santorum">Rupert Murdoch strongly promoted Rick Santorum</a> that year. </p>
<p>Neither the Times nor The New Yorker explain these failures. Yet they are unquestionably relevant to an assessment of the influential power of Fox News. </p>
<p>The numerous <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/8/16263710/fox-news-presidential-vote-study">scholars who argue</a> that “Fox News is a critically important actor in American politics … [that’s] actively reshaping American public opinion” also downplay many Fox News failures. </p>
<p>There are too many failures to list in this article, but one is particularly illustrative. Despite paying her US$1 million per year, and providing ample airtime on supportive shows, Fox News <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-made-limited-effort-to-keep-sarah-palin">couldn’t turn Sarah Palin into a respected Republican</a> figure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268182/original/file-20190408-2935-1792gb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Alaska Gov. and vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin on Fox News, June 17, 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://video.foxnews.com/v/2483279564001/#sp=show-clips">Fox News screenshot</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Chasing, not leading</h2>
<p>Journalists and scholars underplay the reality of Fox News’ small audience. On an average night in 2018, Fox News attracted about <a href="https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/the-2018-year-end-cable-ranker-fox-news-msnbc-hallmark-channel-are-among-the-top-networks-to-also-post-audience-growth/389422">2.4 million prime-time viewers</a>. </p>
<p>That’s an impressive number. It made Fox News the most-watched cable television programming in 2018. </p>
<p>But the U.S. population in 2018 was <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2018/pop-estimates-national-state.html">approximately 327 million</a>, which means that 99.3% of Americans <em>weren’t</em> watching Fox News on any given night. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">26% of registered voters</a> are either registered Republicans or identify as Republican, and in 2018 there were an <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/21/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-developed-countries/">estimated 158 million registered voters</a>. </p>
<p>Thus, on a typical night in 2018, even if every Fox News viewer were a registered Republican (and they’re not), 94.2% of Republicans in the United States still wouldn’t be tuning in.</p>
<p>How few people actually watch Fox News? The lowest-rated broadcast network news program – the “CBS Evening News” – <a href="https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/how-many-people-actually-watch-fox-news-in-america.html/">averaged more than double the number of Fox News</a> viewers in 2018. </p>
<p>With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that Fox News often chases its viewers rather than leading them. In other words: It’s more likely that Fox News caters to the preexisting partisanship of its small but loyal audience than that Fox News actually changes anybody’s mind. </p>
<h2>History of media-presidential coziness</h2>
<p>Then there’s the idea that the real power of Fox News originates in its uniquely close relationship to the Trump administration. </p>
<p>Specifically, former Fox News executive Bill Shine’s appointment to a supervisory role for White House communications – <a href="https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/bill-shine-is-receiving-millions-of-dollars-from-21st-century-fox-while-working-in-the-white-house/385480">while he was still being paid by Fox News</a> – indicates identical and shared communication goals between the White House and cable channel. </p>
<p>But there’s a long history of tight entanglement between broadcast corporations and the White House, with numerous examples of the same kinds of backroom deals that are likely occurring now. </p>
<p>For example, as historian <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01439688200260131?journalCode=chjf20&">David Culbert revealed</a>, when President Roosevelt wanted his most vociferous broadcast critic – a CBS commentator named Boake Carter - removed from the American airwaves, he simply had his press secretary instruct <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01439688200260131">Carter’s sponsor and network to cancel the program</a>.</p>
<p>As for documented relationships between corporate media and presidential administrations, it’s likely that no administration will ever top President Lyndon Johnson’s record. </p>
<p>Johnson’s political rise was <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2007/07/how-lady-bird-and-lyndon-baines-johnson-came-by-their-millions.html">fueled by the revenue from KTBC</a>, his Austin, Texas, radio station. </p>
<p>While serving in Congress, Johnson placed the station license in his wife’s name while <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=aystgv5Xc2sC&pg=PA104&dq=%22It+wasn%27t+Mrs.+Johnson+who+saw+William+Paley+and+Frank+Stanton+in+New+York%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwji8bDA7L7hAhVaeH0KHaFBDG0Q6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=%22It%20wasn%27t%20Mrs.%20Johnson%20who%20saw%20William%20Paley%20and%20Frank%20Stanton%20in%20New%20York%22&f=false">pressuring CBS for a lucrative affiliation contract</a>. Frank Stanton, the CBS executive who later became a lifelong friend, cemented the business deal. </p>
<p>Stanton later became president of CBS, and when Johnson ascended to the White House, the two regularly conferred. In one <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/secret-white-house-tapes/conversation-frank-stanton-february-6-1964-0">conversation, recorded on Feb. 6, 1964</a>, Stanton, the head of CBS, advises President Johnson on an upcoming meeting with The New York Times editorial board.</p>
<p>Yet their conversation wasn’t limited to journalism. </p>
<p>“What do you think about the Republican candidates [for 1964] what are they doing – are they making any headway?” Johnson asked. </p>
<p>“I don’t think they’re making any headway at all,” the president of CBS tells the president of the United States.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F_nCnoVVrlg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">CBS executive Frank Stanton became a lifelong friend of President Lyndon Johnson.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s likely that similar <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/05/sean-hannity-donald-trump-late-night-calls.html?gtm=top">conversations now regularly occur</a> between President Trump and several Fox News figures. </p>
<p>But since this type of communication has happened previously, it cannot be called unprecedented. And unlike Johnson’s business deal with CBS, it doesn’t appear Donald Trump has a direct financial stake in Fox News.</p>
<h2>Credibility through mischaracterization</h2>
<p>Noting historical precedent for Fox News’ close ties to the White House doesn’t excuse the obvious conflict of interest in the channel’s journalism, just as pointing out the network’s limited power doesn’t signify approval of its messaging.</p>
<p>But doing both provides important context for those seeking to mitigate the channel’s impact. Journalists and scholars purporting to reveal the immense influence of Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes might be unwittingly perpetuating that power. </p>
<p>The reality is that most of us don’t live on “Planet Fox,” nor are we subjects of the Murdoch Empire. Criticism from The New Yorker and The New York Times only helps Fox News gain credibility with its constituents – the viewers at home, and the Republican Party in Washington. Such attention proves that Fox News continues to frighten its enemies. </p>
<p>Roger Ailes never feared criticism from respectable media. Like the Wizard of Oz, Ailes was far more anxious that he, and his creation, might be revealed as weak and ineffectual. </p>
<p>Yet that’s what much of the data and recent history suggests. </p>
<p>Fox News couldn’t prevent Obama’s election, re-election or the 2018 blue wave. And despite repetitive promotion of the current administration, it can’t <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-approval-rating-is-incredibly-steady-is-that-weird-or-the-new-normal/">seem to budge President Trump’s “incredibly steady”</a> approval numbers. </p>
<p>There’s no question that Fox News has <a href="https://eml.berkeley.edu/%7Esdellavi/wp/FoxVoteQJEAug07.pdf">a verifiable effect</a> around the political margins. It unquestionably motivates Republicans to vote for Republicans. But its actual persuasive power can be accurately labeled “marginal.” </p>
<p>Properly characterizing Fox News’ influence and its limited electoral power will ultimately prove far more damaging than the investigative journalism that continues to promote the channel’s own myths.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Socolow receives funding from the Fulbright Scholar Program. He is currently a Fulbright Scholar at the News & Media Research Centre at the University of Canberra (Australia). </span></em></p>Despite two major journalistic investigations of Fox News’ so-called ‘empire,’ the idea that Fox News wields immense political power in the US and in the White House falls apart under scrutiny.Michael J. Socolow, Associate Professor, Communication and Journalism, University of MaineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1047622018-10-25T10:43:09Z2018-10-25T10:43:09ZRepublican women are just fine, thank you, with being Republican<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242145/original/file-20181024-71026-rhyftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Women for Trump' listening to President Donald Trump speak at a campaign rally in Wheeling, WV, in September.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/8a44570bf18d482f9a81c6b0d68bd7ea/25/0">AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Republican women have faced a conundrum repeatedly in the last two years. </p>
<p>In the cases of Donald Trump, Roy Moore and Brett Kavanaugh, the question facing them has been whether to support a male Republican leader accused of sexual assault – or to press for male accountability. </p>
<p>That was evident most recently when Susan Collins, the Republican senator from Maine, spoke for 45 minutes on the Senate floor earlier this month. Collins explained why she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-accusers-women.html">voted to confirm</a> Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court despite multiple allegations of sexual assault against him. </p>
<p>The length and detail of her speech reflected her quandary. If she voted no, she would disappoint her fellow Republicans. If she voted yes, women might see her as a gender traitor, one who did not, as a popular hashtag describes, #BelieveSurvivors. </p>
<p>The rapid succession of such cases has likely led some to question whether someone can both be Republican and insist upon women’s rights. Columnist A. B. Stoddard even asked, “<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/21/how_many_women_does_the_gop_want_to_lose_138130.html">How many women does the GOP want to lose</a>?”</p>
<p>Research for our book, <a href="http://boydellandbrewer.com/nasty-women-and-bad-hombres-hb.html">“Nasty Women and Bad Hombres: Gender and Race in the 2016 US Presidential Election,”</a> leads us to believe, however, that many Republican women aren’t asking whether they should leave the party. </p>
<h2>Republican and strong</h2>
<p>The number of <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">women who identify as Republican has declined over the last two years</a> from 27 percent in 2016 to 25 percent in 2017. But we believe it would be wrong to expect, in this political moment, a mass exodus of women from the GOP.</p>
<p>In fact, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president">52 percent of white women</a> in 2016 cast their vote for Donald Trump. That was despite the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/women-accused-trump-sexual-misconduct-list-2017-12">22 allegations of sexual misconduct</a> against him. Roy Moore got <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/doug-jones-roy-moore-alabama-senate-race-special-election-results-demographics-746366">63 percent of the white women’s vote</a> in the 2017 Alabama Senate race, despite the sexual misconduct allegations against him. And Republican women were the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/01/big-gulf-kavanaugh-is-partisan-big-change-last-month-was-among-women/?utm_term=.8b6c8db205c9">only demographic that increased its support</a> for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during the hearings of sexual assault allegations during his confirmation process in October. </p>
<p>Our research led us to conclude that Republican women will mainly stand firm in their party affiliation. They are loyal to the party, even if political moderates and those who identify as the progressive Left have concluded that the GOP does not respect women’s voices and bodies. </p>
<p>But does this mean that Republican women consciously accept second-class status when they stand up for their party?</p>
<p>It’s true that Republicans do not tend to identify as “feminists.” A Pew Research Center poll conducted in September and October found that only <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/10/15/little-partisan-agreement-on-the-pressing-problems-facing-the-u-s/?fbclid=IwAR1qOnXZhYQEmcnl-mtssx3BvsdII0UOIg2gtg87xnIvSrRjscK9r-qETyk">14 percent of Republicans</a> said that the term “feminist” describes them well, compared to 60 percent of Democrats. </p>
<p>However, we have found that Republicanism encompasses different visions of womanhood that allow women to feel that they can be Republican and also strong women. </p>
<h2>Follow the leader</h2>
<p>Women of all backgrounds tend to vote in concert with their husbands. Here’s how that plays out for Republican women: </p>
<p>1) “Women consistently earn less money and hold less power, which fosters women’s economic dependency on men,” according to a <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912917702499">2017 study published in Political Research Quarterly</a>. “Thus, it is within married women’s interests to support policies and politicians who protect their husbands and improve their status.” </p>
<p><a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">White men lean heavily Republican</a> and white women are more likely to be married than black and Latino women and <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/05/18/1-trends-and-patterns-in-intermarriage/">still most often marry white men</a>. This in part accounts for <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/13/like-it-or-not-studies-suggest-that-clinton-may-not-be-wrong-on-white-women-voting-like-their-husbands/?utm_term=.f33479eeca1e">white women’s greater likelihood to vote Republican</a>. </p>
<p>2) For these white women Republicans, their concern for their husbands’ and sons’ welfare may lead them to stay with a party whose leaders prioritize the economic interests of those men. </p>
<p>Donald Trump’s campaign promised good-paying jobs in traditionally male sectors of the economy – mining, manufacturing, policing and the military. That promise would have appealed both to men and to the women who love and support them. </p>
<p>3) Longstanding cultural models have encouraged women to establish their self-worth through care for their family. The notion of <a href="http://www.routledge.com/We-Real-Cool-Black-Men-and-Masculinity/hooks/p/book/9780415969277">benevolent patriarchy</a> allows conservative women to feel that if they submit to their husband’s wills, they can benefit through their husband’s protection and economic care. This may influence their political choices as well.</p>
<p>As a <a href="http://boydellandbrewer.com/nasty-women-and-bad-hombres-hb.html">contributor to our book, Mark Ward,</a> writes, evangelical Christian churches have long encouraged wives to embrace the role of helpmate and mother within a patriarchal household. Ward notes that Hillary Clinton forever found herself on the wrong side of evangelical Christian voters after her 1992 remarks in which she explained that, “I suppose I could have stayed at home and baked cookies,” but she chose to pursue her profession instead. These comments were interpreted as dismissive of the traditional role of the housewife and mother.</p>
<h2>New versions of femininity</h2>
<p>A lot has changed for women since Clinton’s 1992 cookie gaffe, and not just the fact that the federal government reported that in 2017, <a href="http://blog.dol.gov/2017/03/01/12-stats-about-working-women">“70 percent of mothers with children under 18 participate in the labor force</a>.”</p>
<p>Popular culture has generated a spate of strong female characters who defend themselves and others. Fewer women, it seems, want to identify themselves as genteel cookie bakers. </p>
<p>As more women have been elected to office, they have evolved new images of femininity that could encompass motherhood and also female leadership in the traditionally male realm of politics. These new images of femininity are another avenue through which Republican women like Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, New York Rep. Claudia Tenney, former Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Hewlett-Packard CEO and presidential candidate Carly Fiorina can stay true to their party while asserting their own power.</p>
<p>For instance, in 2008, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin set the example of the strong Republican woman who could raise five children, maintain a professional career, and hold her own in the combative world of politics. She called herself a <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Conventions/story?id=5718030">“hockey mom”</a> and <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/what-does-mama-grizzly-really-mean-72001">“Mama Grizzly”</a> who would protect her cubs at any cost. </p>
<p>During the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, Donald Trump provided a culturally acceptable “out” along these lines for conservative women who wanted to support the Republican judge but worried that doing so might be seen as a betrayal of female survivors of sexual assault. </p>
<p>Despite the fact that studies conducted in the past 12 years indicate that false reporting for sexual crimes is <a href="http://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/files/Publications_NSVRC_Overview_False-Reporting.pdf">rare</a>, Trump constructed an imaginary choice, urging Americans to protect their sons against “false accusations” by women. Pretending to be a wrongly accused son about to lose his job, he said, plaintively, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-mocks-christine-blasey-ford-ive-false-accusations/story?id=58246927">“Mom, what do I do? What do I do?”</a> </p>
<p>Republican women who wanted to support Kavanaugh could stand firm in their roles as mothers and, just like Palin’s “Mama Grizzly,” fiercely protect their cubs (sons), in this case against “false accusations.” </p>
<p>This line of argument spread quickly. In a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/battleground-house-districts-remain-close-in-new-poll/2018/10/22/e6c77a32-d63e-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html?utm_term=.11f4c8f0b6df">Washington Post-Schar School poll</a> conducted this month, 76 percent of Republicans – compared to 34 percent of Democrats – expressed fear that men close to them “might be unfairly accused of sexual assault.” </p>
<p>Consider what happened in North Dakota. Although Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota is the most vulnerable Democratic senator up for re-election in 2018, she voted “no” on Kavanaugh, which was likely to cost her in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/north-dakota">state that had voted for Trump</a> in 2016. </p>
<p>Heitkamp’s opponent, Kevin Cramer, said he would have voted for Kavanaugh and tried to use his position to his advantage with women, saying that his wife and daughters decry #MeToo as a “movement toward victimization.” </p>
<p>And #MeToo activists – according to Cramer’s family – are not as “tough” as the North Dakotan <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/08/us/politics/heidi-heitkamp-kevin-cramer-metoo.html">“pioneers of the prairie.”</a> This language implies that, even if women are sexually assaulted, they should bear up under it. </p>
<p>In the upcoming midterm elections, Republican women who want to see themselves as strong, while supporting a party that has excused male sexual assault, can add the “Prairie Woman” vision of feminism to the “Mama Grizzly” identity of strong women. </p>
<p>In so doing, Republican women are constructing their own version of womanhood that does not eclipse – or hold to account – the dominant position of men in their lives. </p>
<p>In this vision, women can hold their own – against feminists on the Left as well as male sexual predators. This model of “prairie woman” femininity shows there is diversity in how strong women act. At the same time, it precludes gender-based solidarity by rejecting any possible alignment with feminists on the Left who hold offending men to account, and who demand change within a culture that devalues women’s experiences overall.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The GOP’s handling of sexual assault allegations against prominent GOP figures has led some to conclude that the party does not respect women. But GOP women are sticking with their party.Christine A. Kray, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Rochester Institute of TechnologyHinda Mandell, Associate Professor, Rochester Institute of TechnologyTamar Carroll, Associate Professor of History, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/970202018-08-26T08:44:01Z2018-08-26T08:44:01ZObituary: John McCain, who survived torture and ran for the US presidency<p>Senator John Sidney McCain III, who has died of brain cancer aged 81, was in many ways in a class of his own. A storied war veteran and 36-year fixture in the US Congress, he forged a career unlike any other in recent American political history.</p>
<p>McCain was born on August 29 1936 at Coco Solo US Naval Air Station Panama to Admiral John McCain Jr and Roberta McCain. McCain’s grandfather, John Senior, had also been a four-star admiral. Graduating from the US Naval Academy in 1958, McCain became a naval aviator, and in 1967 he volunteered for combat duty in Vietnam. On July 29 that year, McCain narrowly escaped death when a rocket accidentally launched from another aircraft exploded in his aircraft while he was in the cockpit. McCain was able to jump clear, but the accident ignited a conflagration that <a href="https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/azdc/2017/07/29/john-mccain-50-years-ago-uss-forrestal-tragedy/522101001/">nearly destroyed the USS Forrestal</a> and killed 134 of her crew. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZENl6qQYM1w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>On his 23rd combat mission over North Vietnam, McCain’s plane was shot down with a surface-to-air missile. He survived the crash, but was plunged into an ordeal as a prisoner of war that would last for five and a half years.</p>
<p>After returning from Vietnam, McCain remained in the Navy until 1981, after which he embarked on a second career in politics. He was elected to the House of Representatives as a congressman from Arizona in 1982, then to the Senate in 1986. In 2000, he made an unsuccessful bid for the Republican presidential nomination against George W. Bush of Texas, but a second effort in 2008 secured him his party’s nomination. </p>
<p>During that campaign, eager to gain the support of the right wing of the Republican Party, McCain lurched further to the right than his own convictions might otherwise have permitted. His most momentous decision was to choose as his running mate the largely unknown governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin.</p>
<p>Only recently, McCain suggested that he actually considered the extraordinary step of instead choosing Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, a former Democrat, as his running mate, but was persuaded by his political advisers to select Palin instead. Whatever really happened, the decision reinforced McCain’s reputation as a self-styled political “maverick” – but while beloved of the conservative grassroots, Palin proved to be an inept and ignorant liability. And in the end, she and McCain were <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/07/22/538705462/john-mccains-2008-concession-speech">roundly defeated by Barack Obama</a>.</p>
<h2>Hawk and dove</h2>
<p>McCain was undoubtedly a conservative. He was a supporter of Reaganomics, and he and his first wife were close friends of the Reagans for a time. In 1983, McCain voted against the establishment of a Martin Luther King national holiday; he opposed gun control and also abortion. </p>
<p>He consistently promoted a hawkish foreign policy, supporting the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/16484446/ns/politics-tom_curry/t/mccain-calls-substantial-sustained-surge/">2007 counter-insurgency “surge”</a> that saw an additional 20,000 American troops dispatched to the country. More recently he supported US intervention in Syria, and favoured an aggressive policy towards Iran and North Korea.</p>
<p>But from the outset of his political career, McCain was also prepared to oppose the norms of modern Republicanism on points of personal conviction. He spent years declaring his belief in global warming, pressing for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mccain-feingolds-devastating-legacy/2014/04/11/14a528e2-c18f-11e3-bcec-b71ee10e9bc3_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.22f8e5b66845">political campaign finance reform</a>, and was not afraid to make common cause with Democrats as an advocate for offering undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship. </p>
<p>Most recently, McCain established himself as the “acceptable face of Republicanism” as opposed to the current occupant of the White House. After the 2016 election, McCain many times butted heads with the Trump administration, in particular supporting the investigation of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/12/john-mccain-hits-out-at-putin-and-trump-in-new-book.html">alleged Russian interference</a> in the electoral process. </p>
<p>According to McCain, his diagnosis of brain cancer in July 2017 left him free to “vote my conscience without worry”, famously flying back to Washington against the advice of his doctors to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/09/john-mccain-saves-obamacare-once-again/540861/">vote against the effective repeal of the Affordable Care Act</a> (aka “Obamacare”) on July 25, spelling the end of a Republican promise. In the last weeks of his life, McCain <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/john-mccain-gina-haspel-cia/index.html">opposed the confirmation of Gina Haspel</a> as the new director of the CIA, saying “her refusal to acknowledge torture’s immorality is disqualifying”.</p>
<p>McCain always had his critics. Some attacked his <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senator-hothead/">temperament</a>; others, including <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317">the current president</a>, questioned the reality behind the cultivated maverick-warrior image he presented in his three memoirs – the last of which, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/05/03/607781885/hear-sen-john-mccain-read-from-his-forthcoming-memoir-the-restless-wave">The Restless Wave</a>, was published only this year. But if McCain’s memoirs are indeed rather shallow works of self-promotion, that’s just an example of the politician’s stock-in-trade. </p>
<p>Yes, McCain undeniably milked his experience as a prisoner of war for all its worth. But that too is hardly unusual for a US politician with a service background – and the price McCain paid during his years in the “Hanoi Hilton” was far higher than anything asked of most of his posturing colleagues.</p>
<p>McCain’s political legacy will always be somewhat tarnished by his crass decision to elevate Palin, whose rise inadvertently encouraged the same <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-poisoning-and-dividing-america-donald-trump-has-won-an-ugly-victory-68493">bitter and intolerant anti-intellectual conservatism</a> that defines the era of Donald Trump. But that was only one chapter in a career spanning more than three and a half decades. Right up until his death, McCain worked to promote a more inclusive, principled conservatism. One day, that might be recognised as his true legacy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Horwood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A giant of the US political scene, John McCain had friends and enemies on all sides.Ian Horwood, Senior Lecturer in History, York St John UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/970542018-06-12T10:36:05Z2018-06-12T10:36:05ZJohn McCain, dead at 81, helped build a country that no longer reflects his values<p>Arizona Sen. John McCain – <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/04/02/john-mccain-family-navy-officers-destined-u-s-naval-academy/538429001/">scion of Navy brass</a>, <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/sorry-trump-story-john-mccain-war-hero-355617">flyboy turned Vietnam war hero</a> and tireless defender of American global leadership – has died after a year of treatment for terminal brain cancer.</p>
<p>“With the Senator when he passed were his wife Cindy and their family. At his death, he had served the United States of America faithfully for sixty years,” McCain’s office said in a statement.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/faculty/esherman.cfm">scholar of American politics</a>. And I believe that, regardless of his storied biography and personal charm, three powerful trends in American politics thwarted McCain’s lifelong ambition to be president. They were the rise of the Christian right, partisan polarization and declining public support for foreign wars.</p>
<p>Republican McCain was a <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/227647-sen-mccain-huddles-with-democrats-on-campaign-finance-reform">champion of bipartisan legislating</a>, an approach that served him and the Senate well. But as political divides have grown, bipartisanship has fallen out of favor. </p>
<p>Most recently, <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/387037-mccain-urges-senate-to-reject-haspels-nomination">McCain opposed Gina Haspel</a> as CIA director for “her refusal to acknowledge torture’s immorality” and her role in it. Having survived brutal torture for five years as a prisoner of war, McCain maintained a resolute voice against U.S. policies permitting so-called “enhanced interrogations.” Nevertheless, his appeals failed to rally sufficient support to slow, much less derail, her appointment. </p>
<p>Days later, a White House aide said McCain’s opposition to Haspel didn’t matter because <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/5/13/17349424/john-mccain-cancer-kelly-sadler-sarah-sanders">“he’s dying anyway.”</a> That disparaging remark and the refusal of the White House to condemn it revealed how deeply the president’s hostile attitude toward McCain and everything he stands for had permeated the executive office.</p>
<p>McCain ended his career honorably and bravely, but with hostility from the White House, marginal influence in the Republican-controlled Senate, and a public less receptive to the positions he has long embodied. </p>
<h2>The outlier</h2>
<p>McCain’s first run for the presidency in 2000 captured the imagination of the public and the press, whom he wryly <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/04/02/john-mccain-2000-republican-presidential-campaign-george-w-bush-arizona-senator/537969001/">referred to as “my base.”</a> His self-confident <a href="https://youtu.be/T5iexUtP4Vc">“maverick” persona</a> appealed to a more secular, moderate constituency who like him, might be constitutionally opposed to the growing political alignment between the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252504967_Of_Movements_and_Metaphors_The_Co-Evolution_of_the_Christian_Right_and_the_GOP">religious right and the Republican Party</a>. </p>
<p>McCain enthusiastically bucked his party and steered his “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/03/11/us/2000-campaign-quest-birth-death-straight-talk-express-gamble-gamble.html">Straight Talk Express</a>” through the GOP primaries with a no-holds-barred <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20000228/aponline165646_000.htm?noredirect=on">attack on Pat Robertson</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/29/us/2000-campaign-arizona-senator-mccain-denounces-political-tactics-christian-right.html">Rev. Jerry Falwell</a>. The two were conservative icons and leaders of the Christian Coalition and the Moral Majority. </p>
<p>McCain branded Robertson and Falwell “<a href="http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0002/28/se.01.html">agents of intolerance</a>” and “empire builders.” He charged that they used religion to subordinate the interests of working people. He said their religion served a business goal and accused them of shaming <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/29/us/the-2000-campaign-excerpt-from-mccain-s-speech-on-religious-conservatives.html">“our faith, our party, and our country.”</a> That message earned McCain a primary victory in New Hampshire but his campaign capsized in South Carolina, where Republican voters launched George W. Bush, the stalwart evangelical, on his path to a presidential victory in 2000 against Democratic nominee, Vice President Al Gore. </p>
<p>By 2008, McCain saw <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/campaign-2008/articles/2008/09/24/the-evangelical-vote-how-big-is-it-really">the political clout</a> of white, born-again, evangelical Christians. By then, they <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/">comprised 26 percent of the electorate</a>. Bowing to political winds, he adopted a more conciliatory approach. </p>
<p>McCain’s willingness to defend America as a “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/29/us/politics/29cnd-mccain.html">Christian nation</a>” and his controversial choice of Alaska <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/30/us/politics/30veep.html">Gov. Sarah Palin</a>, an enthusiastic standard bearer for the Christian right, as his running mate, signaled the electoral power of a less tolerant, more absolutist “values-based” politics. </p>
<p>McCain’s about-face revealed a political pragmatist willing to make peace with the Christian right and accept their ability to make or break his last attempt at the presidency. </p>
<p>His strategy reflected his tendency to abandon principles if they threatened his quest for the presidency. Having railed eight years prior against the hypocrisy of the right-wing religious leadership, McCain may have felt some <a href="http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0002/28/se.01.html">personal discomfort kowtowing</a> to the dictates of self-appointed moral authorities. But the electorate had changed since then, and McCain showed he was willing to shift his position to accommodate their beliefs. </p>
<p>The primary that year also required an outright <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/03/07/us/2000-campaign-republicans-mccain-renews-attack-ads-bush-talks-race-tolerance.html">appeal to independents</a> and even crossover Democrats. That would potentially provide enough votes to boost him past George W. Bush, whose campaign had already <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/21/us/the-2000-campaign-the-christian-right-evangelicals-found-a-believer-in-bush.html">expressed allegiance</a> to the conservative religious agenda. </p>
<p>In 2008, Mitt Romney, a devout Mormon considered <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-campaign-evangelicals-idUKBRE83T1CU20120430">religiously suspect by many evangelicals</a>, emerged as McCain’s main rival for the nomination.</p>
<p>Sensing an opportunity to establish a winning coalition, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/us/politics/09mccain.html">McCain jettisoned his former objections</a> to the political influence of the religious right, shifting from antagonism to accommodation. In doing so, McCain revealed his flexibility again on principles that might fatally undermine his overriding ambition – winning the presidency. </p>
<p>In fact, the <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=1903153">incorporation of the religious right</a> into the Republican Party represented but one facet of a more consequential development. That was the fiercely ideological <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/packages/political-polarization/">partisan polarization</a> that has come to dominate the political system. </p>
<h2>The lonely Republican</h2>
<p>Rough parity between the parties since 2000 has intensified the electoral battles for Congress and the presidency. It has <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article182599481.html">supercharged the fundraising</a> machines on both sides. And it has nullified the “regular order” of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/books/its-even-worse-than-it-looks-how-the-american-constitutional-system-collided-with-the-new-politics-of-extremism/">congressional hearings, debates and compromise</a>, as party leaders scheme for policy wins. </p>
<p>Fueled by highly engaged activists, interest groups and donors <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/4882255/campaign_finance_and_political_polarization">known as “policy demanders</a>,” partisan polarization has overwhelmed moderates in our political system. McCain was a bipartisan problem-solver and was willing to compromise with Democrats to pass <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Bipartisan_Campaign_Reform_Act">campaign finance reform</a> in 2002. He worked with the other side to <a href="https://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=a7591ed4-a6be-42c1-b052-9608391f21ef">normalize relations with Vietnam</a> in 1995. And he joined with Democrats to pass <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/02/04/new-bipartisan-immigration-plan-to-be-introduced-in-the-senate/?utm_term=.e55418696b34">immigration reform</a> in 2017. </p>
<p>But he was also one of those moderates who ultimately found himself <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18664285">on the outside of his party</a>. </p>
<p>McCain’s dramatic Senate floor <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/07/28/watch-senate-members-gasps-applaud-mccain-votes-no-skinny-repeal/519289001/">thumbs-down repudiation</a> of the Republican effort to repeal and replace Obamacare turned less on his antipathy to Trump and more <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/us/politics/mccain-graham-cassidy-health-care.html">on his disgust with a broken party-line legislative process</a>. </p>
<p>On an issue as monumental as health care, he insisted on a return to <a href="https://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2017/9/statement-by-senator-john-mccain-on-health-care-reform">“extensive hearings, debate, and amendment.”</a> He endorsed the efforts of Sens. Lamar Alexander, a Republican, and Patty Murray, a Democrat, to <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/ryan-lizza/why-john-mccain-killed-obamacare-repealagain">craft a bipartisan solution</a>. </p>
<p>Foreign and defense policy was McCain’s signature issue. He wanted <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/magazine/18mccain-t.html">a more robust posture</a> for American global leadership, backed by a well-funded, war-ready military. But that stance <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/03/19/public-attitudes-toward-the-war-in-iraq-20032008/">lost support a decade ago</a> following the Iraq War disaster.</p>
<p>McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign slogan of “<a href="https://www.ithaca.edu/rhp/programs/cmd/blogs/posters_and_election_propaganda/obama_and_mccain_slogans/">Country First</a>” signified not only the model of his personal commitment and sacrifice. It also telegraphed his belief in the need to <a href="http://www.ontheissues.org/international/John_McCain_War_+_Peace.htm">persevere in the war on terror</a> in general and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in particular. </p>
<p>But by then, 55 percent of registered independents, McCain’s electoral base, <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2007/02/15/war-support-slips-fewer-expect-a-successful-outcome/">had lost confidence</a> in the prospects for a military victory. They favored bringing the troops home. </p>
<p>Over the course of six months that year, independent <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2007/02/15/war-support-slips-fewer-expect-a-successful-outcome/">support for the Iraq war fell</a> from 54 percent to 40 percent. Overall opposition to the troop “surge” was at 63 percent. Barack Obama’s promise to wind down America’s military commitment and do “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOTPJSUTSt0">nation-building at home</a>” resonated with an electorate wearied by the conflict and buffeted by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Financial-Crisis-of-2008-The-1484264">their own economic woes</a>. </p>
<h2>Advocate for global leadership</h2>
<p>McCain continued to assert the primacy of American power. He decried the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/10/17/john_mccain_us_must_not_refuse_obligations_of_international_leadership_in_favor_of_half_baked_spurious_nationalism.html">country’s retreat</a> from a rules-based global order premised on American leadership and based on freedom, capitalism, human rights and democracy. </p>
<p>Donald Trump <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2017/1214/Jerusalem-etc.-How-US-global-leadership-has-changed-under-Trump">stands in contrast</a>. Trump, like Obama, promises to terminate <a href="https://www.weeklystandard.com/thomas-donnelly-and-william-kristol/the-obama-trump-foreign-policy">costly commitments abroad</a>, revoke defense and trade agreements that fail to put
“America First,” and rebuild the nation’s crumbling infrastructure. </p>
<p>In his run for the presidency, Trump asserted that American might and treasure had been <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/03/15/the-president-has-had-enough-of-being-challenged-over-foreign-policy">squandered defending the world</a>. Other countries, he said, took advantage of U.S. magnanimity. </p>
<p>In Congress, Republicans have become <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/04/gop-foreign-policy-opinion-in-the-trump-era/">cautious about U.S. military interventions</a>, counterinsurgency operations and nation-building. They find <a href="http://news.gallup.com/poll/162854/americans-oppose-military-involvement-syria.aspx">scant public support</a> for intervention in Syria’s civil war. </p>
<p>Seeing Russia as America’s implacable foe, McCain <a href="https://www.cardin.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/cardin-mccain-prod-trump-administration-to-use-global-magnitsky-tools-to-punish-human-rights-violators-and-corrupt-officials-from-around-the-world">sponsored sanctions legislation</a> and prodded the administration to implement them more vigorously. </p>
<p>Accepting the Liberty Medal in Philadelphia, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/10/17/john-mccain-full-speech-liberty-medal.cnn">McCain repudiated Trump’s approach</a> to global leadership. </p>
<p>He declared, “To abandon the ideals we have advanced around the globe, to refuse the obligations of international leadership for the sake of some half-baked, spurious nationalism cooked up by people who would rather find scapegoats than solve problems is as unpatriotic as an attachment to any other tired dogma of the past that Americans consigned to the ash heap of history.”</p>
<p>McCain spent his life committed to principles that, tragically – at least for him – have fallen from favor, and the country’s repudiation of the principles he championed may put the nation at risk.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an article originally published on on June 12, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Sherman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sen. John McCain, who died Saturday, ended his career with growing repudiation by his party and the public for positions, from national defense to bipartisanship, that he had long embodied.Elizabeth Sherman, Assistant Professor Department of Government, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/855712017-10-11T23:16:06Z2017-10-11T23:16:06ZHow a growing Christian movement is seeking to change America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189822/original/file-20171011-9771-1iamedt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamrozanas/6952685315/in/photolist-bAok7K-YPB6Fa-nMAeVm-o4f32t-9oVcVi-YPB6TV-y8toKS-bnrZXy-bnpieQ-yMWFiq-FG6zmG-iuwSHJ-SHuXe8-bNBJUM-e9yR3n-cEqrsw-4ChLfJ-Xi1LHm-z6nPkB-4pCXN5-R3BMr1-8ktJCG-b4RYHt-8ktTwC-p2p4qs-6fNEmt-jNTs5Y-aFNvFV-A2tHzN-RAaFXG-cp3v2-nVcmkC-a5duq1-y8ELua-bAmQz2-nKHq7A-bq9MpL-bntdkS-jz2wsH-bAmSwz-9xSwuc-bAmUH2-bAjcDK-2EKBt-bntfuL-bAomiv-bns3mo-9xVt8h-F5qPtN-bwcpM9">Adam Rozanas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In October 2017, the National Mall in Washington, D.C. was filled with tents, worship music and prayer for the <a href="http://www.awakenthedawn.org/">“Awaken the Dawn”</a> rally. The purpose of the event, according to organizer Lou Engle, was to “gather around Jesus,” to pray for the nation and its government. It ended with a <a href="http://religionnews.com/2017/10/09/christian-women-gather-on-national-mall-for-day-of-prayer/">day of prayer</a> by Christian women.</p>
<p>This wasn’t the first such event. On April 9, 2016, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, tens of thousands of people <a href="http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2016/april/thousands-to-gather-in-l-a-to-pray-for-unity-revival">gathered to pray</a> for the supernatural transformation of America. </p>
<p>Five years earlier, in August of 2011, more than 30,000 people cheered wildly as the then U.S. presidential candidate and Texas Governor Rick Perry – now secretary of energy in the Trump administration – came to the center stage at <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/us/politics/07prayer.html">“The Response: A Call to Prayer for a Nation in Crisis”</a> at Reliant Stadium in Houston. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Worshipers pray with Texas Gov. Rick Perry, seen at center and on screen, at The Response, a daylong prayer and fast rally, Aug. 6, 2011, at Reliant Stadium in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Pat Sullivan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These three events and the leaders who organized them are central players in a movement that we call “Independent Network Charismatic,” or INC, Christianity in our recently released book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rise-of-network-christianity-9780190635671?cc=us&lang=en&">“The Rise of Network Christianity</a>.” </p>
<p>Based on our research, we believe that INC Christianity is significantly changing the religious landscape in America – and its politics. </p>
<h2>Here is what we found about INC</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is led by a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/11/10/meet-evangelicals-prophesied-trump-win/93575144/">network of popular independent religious entrepreneurs</a>, often referred to as “apostles.” They have close ties, we found, to conservative U.S. politicians, including Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and more recently President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Charismatic Christians emphasize supernatural miracles and divine interventions. But INC Christianity is different from other charismatics – and other Christian denominations in general – in the following ways:</p>
<ul>
<li>It is not focused primarily on building congregations but rather on spreading beliefs and practices through media, conferences and ministry schools.<br></li>
<li>It is not so much about proselytizing to unbelievers as it is about transforming society through placing Christian believers in powerful positions in all sectors of society. </li>
<li>It is organized as a network of independent leaders rather than as formally organized denominations.</li>
</ul>
<p>INC Christianity is the fastest-growing Christian group in America and possibly around the world. Over the 40 years from 1970 to 2010, the number of regular attenders of Protestant churches as a whole shrunk by an average of <a href="http://www.worldchristiandatabase.org/wcd/default.asp">.05 percent per year</a>, which is a striking decline when one considers that the U.S. population grew an average of 1 percent per year during those years. At the same time, independent neo-charismatic congregations (a category in which INC groups reside) <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=uUpIvgAACAAJ&q=world+christian+database#v=snippet&q=world%20christian%20database&f=false">grew</a> by an average of 3.24 percent per year. </p>
<p>Its impact, however, is much greater than can be measured in church attendance. This is because INC Christianity is not centrally concerned with building congregations, but spreading beliefs and practices. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Johnson, pastor of Bethel Church in Redding, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/28648582@N02/5339151794/in/photolist-98NxPh-4tneYS-S2GSgh-eawUwM-eoHoPd-ejgZTH-oitEEP-dikQ7r-oog9to-7nw8Xj-nRzd1D-ejnPrY-jJBSDz-k9ZqHi-RV6sTA-8S1x6F-ejnN39-6Cms1L-RYFe9V-ib25u9-kfEnoJ-96RUcf-CWqNAW-fvChEL-8XsMEe-731ugM-dF1eoK-qsQST3-8XsMCv-eoCZnL-ejnN4j-eo4mek-4BtR7C-bn77Lk-epfYn7-6CgZYX-hCS4LN-gwv8T1-5uEKPN-hf1YHa-kPSkQF-7GuQC2-DPrSep-9Evhue-6Qm84y-4yXQFB-dF6E3L-6jYdJQ-otzCWr-QY7dMz">Kevin Shorter</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=O9c-DgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=google+pages+the+rise+of+network+Christianity&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju0f6HrdbSAhWLjVQKHZBNAAMQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=Table%205.1&f=false">influence of INC Christianity</a> can be seen in the millions of hits on <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">many</a> <a href="http://wagnerleadership.org/">of their</a> <a href="http://www.ihopkc.org/">web-based</a> <a href="http://bethelredding.com/">media</a> <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">sites</a>, large turnouts at stadium rallies and conferences, and millions of dollars in media sales. In our interviews with leaders, we found that Bethel, an INC ministry based in Redding, California, for example, in 2013 had an income of US$8.4 million in sales of music, books, DVDs and web-based content as well as $7 million in tuition to their <a href="http://bssm.net">Bethel School of Supernatural Ministry</a>. </p>
<h2>Appeal of INC</h2>
<p>As part of our research, we conducted in-depth interviews with senior leaders, staff and current and former participants in INC Christian ministries. We also conducted supplementary interviews with Christian leaders and scholars with knowledge of the changing religious landscape and attended conferences, numerous church services, ministry school sessions, healing sessions and exorcisms. In all, we conducted 41 in-depth interviews. </p>
<p>Our primary conclusion is that the growth of these groups is largely the result of their network governance structure. When compared to the oversight and accountability of formal congregations and denominations, these structures allow for more experimentation. This includes “extreme” experiences of the supernatural, unorthodox beliefs and practices, and financing as well as marketing techniques that leverage the power of the internet.</p>
<p>In our research, we witnessed the appeal of INC Christianity, particularly among young people. We saw the thrill of holding impromptu supernatural healing sessions in the emergency room of a large public hospital, the intrigue of ministry school class sessions devoted to the techniques of casting out demonic spirits and the adventure of teams of young people going out into public places, seeking direct guidance from God as to whom to heal or to relay specific divine messages. </p>
<h2>‘Seven mountains of culture’</h2>
<p>In addition to the growth numbers, the importance of INC Christianity lies in the fact that its proponents have a fundamentally different view of the relationship between the Christian faith and society than most Christian groups throughout American history. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060630560/the-religious-history-of-america">Most Christian groups</a> in America have seen the role of the Church as connecting individuals to God through the saving grace of Jesus and building congregations that provide communities of meaning and belonging through worship services. They also believe in serving and providing for the needs their local communities. Such traditional Christian groups believe that although the world can be improved, it will not be restored to God’s original plan until Jesus comes back again to rule the Earth. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lou Engle, an American Charismatic Christian leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/edenfrangipane/1036678093/in/photolist-2zBfhe">eden frangipane</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>INC beliefs, however, are different – their leaders are not content simply to connect individuals to God and grow congregations. Most INC Christian groups we studied seek to bring heaven or God’s intended perfect society to Earth by placing “kingdom-minded people” in powerful positions at the top of all sectors of society. </p>
<p>INC leaders have labeled them the <a href="https://www.destinyimage.com/pages/search-results-page?q=invading+babylon&page=1">“seven mountains of culture.”</a>
These include business, government, media, arts and entertainment, education, family and religion. In this form of “trickle-down Christianity,” they believe if Christians rise to the top of all seven “mountains,” society will be completely transformed. </p>
<p>One INC leader we interviewed summed it up this way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The goal of this new movement is transforming social units like cities, ethnic groups, nations rather than individuals…if Christians permeate each mountain and rise to the top of all seven mountains…society would have biblical morality, people would live in harmony, there would be peace and not war, there would be no poverty.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We heard <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=yZ3MCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT4&lpg=PT4&dq#v=onepage&q&f=false">these ideas</a> repeatedly in most of our interviews, at events we attended and in INC media materials. </p>
<p>Most significantly, since the 2016 presidential election, some INC leaders have <a href="http://elijahlist.com/words/display_word.html?ID=17420">released public statements</a> claiming that the Trump presidency is part of fulfilling God’s plan to “bring heaven to Earth” by placing believers in top posts, including Rick Perry; Betsy DeVos directing the Department of Education; and Ben Carson leading the Department of Housing and Urban Development. </p>
<h2>Changing the landscape</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is a movement to watch because we think it will continue to draw adherents in large numbers in the future. It will produce a growing number of Christians who see their goal not just as saving souls but as transforming society by taking control over its institutions.</p>
<p>We see the likelihood of INC Christians taking over the “seven mountains of culture” as slim. However, we also believe that this movement is sure to shake up the religious and political landscape for generations to come.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a piece <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-christian-movement-is-growing-rapidly-in-the-midst-of-religious-decline-73507">originally published</a> on March 15, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Christerson receives funding from John Templeton Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Flory receives funding from John Templeton Foundation. </span></em></p>A prayer rally recently organized in Washington, DC is part of a growing movement, that scholars call ‘Independent Network Christianity.’Brad Christerson, Professor of Sociology, Biola UniversityRichard Flory, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/735072017-03-16T02:21:57Z2017-03-16T02:21:57ZHow a Christian movement is growing rapidly in the midst of religious decline<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160795/original/image-20170314-10720-v4acmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jesus culture.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamrozanas/6806267708/in/photolist-bnrUgf-brfN7D-f8KB9C-abhqNe-bAnb9g-cdXqno-cdXq2b-f8KBbq-f8vk4P-btqqcv-frSrWp-bVAfdc-f8vjSK-dUf24J-cBWnos-f8vkcB-bAnfvK-bLJgBa-bnrTcJ-bWA3mk-bnpmNA-dU9psX-aFX98v-fs7Lc7-bAndn4-bnsk4f-fBGDmt-f8KB27-ccDmxy-ccXuC1-avfvMa-irveie-bnsz83-f8KBbC-bAnsNV-iWA1Su-f8KBnw-bAnd1t-f8KBh9-bAnmbV-bAjbJk-bnrSoJ-f8vkbX-bntQQw-bnsxKs-frSsg2-iWA2yQ-dtLg4G-btqqsv-ainY1T">Adam Rozanas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In August of 2011, more than 30,000 people cheered wildly as the then U.S. presidential candidate and Texas Governor Rick Perry – now secretary of energy in the Trump administration – came to the center stage at <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/us/politics/07prayer.html">“The Response: A Call to Prayer for a Nation in Crisis”</a> at Reliant Stadium in Houston. Perry quoted from the Bible and preached about the need for salvation that comes from Jesus. He <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-08-06-rick-perry-prayer-rally_n.htm">concluded with a prayer</a> for a country he believed to be overwhelmed by problems:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We see discord at home. We see fear in the marketplace. We see anger in the halls of government.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>He then proceeded to ask God for forgiveness for forgetting “who made us, who protects us, and who blesses us.” In response, the crowd exploded into cheers and praise to God. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Worshippers pray with Texas Gov. Rick Perry, seen at center and on screen, at The Response, a daylong prayer and fast rally, Aug. 6, 2011, at Reliant Stadium in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Pat Sullivan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Five years later, on April 9, 2016, and 1,500 miles away at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, tens of thousands of people <a href="http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2016/april/thousands-to-gather-in-l-a-to-pray-for-unity-revival">gathered to pray</a> for the supernatural transformation of America. The event consisted of more than 16 hours of healing sessions, worship music and prophecy from some of the most popular Charismatic Christian leaders in the world. </p>
<p>While not directly affiliated, these two events and the leaders who organized them are central players in a movement that we call “Independent Network Charismatic,” or INC, Christianity in our recently released book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rise-of-network-christianity-9780190635671?cc=us&lang=en&">“The Rise of Network Christianity</a>.” </p>
<p>Based on our research, we believe that INC Christianity is significantly changing the religious landscape in America – and its politics. </p>
<h2>Here is what we found about INC</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is led by a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/11/10/meet-evangelicals-prophesied-trump-win/93575144/">network of popular independent religious entrepreneurs</a>, often referred to as “apostles.” They have close ties, we found, to conservative U.S. politicians, including Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and more recently President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Charismatic Christians emphasize supernatural miracles and divine interventions, but INC Christianity is different from other charismatics – and other Christian denominations in general – in the following ways:</p>
<ul>
<li>It is not focused primarily on building congregations but rather on spreading beliefs and practices through media, conferences and ministry schools.<br></li>
<li>It is not so much about proselytizing to unbelievers as it is about transforming society through placing Christian believers in powerful positions in all sectors of society. </li>
<li>It is organized as a network of independent leaders rather than as formally organized denominations.</li>
</ul>
<p>INC Christianity is the fastest-growing Christian group in America and possibly around the world. Over the 40 years from 1970 to 2010, the number of regular attenders of Protestant churches as a whole shrunk by an average of <a href="http://www.worldchristiandatabase.org/wcd/default.asp">.05 percent per year</a>, while independent neo-charismatic congregations (a category in which INC groups reside) <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=uUpIvgAACAAJ&q=world+christian+database#v=snippet&q=world%20christian%20database&f=false">grew</a> by an average of 3.24 percent per year. </p>
<p>Its impact, however, is much greater than can be measured in church attendance. This is because INC Christianity is not centrally concerned with building congregations, but spreading beliefs and practices. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Johnson, pastor of Bethel Church in Redding, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/28648582@N02/5339151794/in/photolist-98NxPh-4tneYS-S2GSgh-eawUwM-eoHoPd-ejgZTH-oitEEP-dikQ7r-oog9to-7nw8Xj-nRzd1D-ejnPrY-jJBSDz-k9ZqHi-RV6sTA-8S1x6F-ejnN39-6Cms1L-RYFe9V-ib25u9-kfEnoJ-96RUcf-CWqNAW-fvChEL-8XsMEe-731ugM-dF1eoK-qsQST3-8XsMCv-eoCZnL-ejnN4j-eo4mek-4BtR7C-bn77Lk-epfYn7-6CgZYX-hCS4LN-gwv8T1-5uEKPN-hf1YHa-kPSkQF-7GuQC2-DPrSep-9Evhue-6Qm84y-4yXQFB-dF6E3L-6jYdJQ-otzCWr-QY7dMz">Kevin Shorter</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=O9c-DgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=google+pages+the+rise+of+network+Christianity&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju0f6HrdbSAhWLjVQKHZBNAAMQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=Table%205.1&f=false">influence of INC Christianity</a> can be seen in the millions of hits on <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">many</a> <a href="http://wagnerleadership.org/">of their</a> <a href="http://www.ihopkc.org/">web-based</a> <a href="http://bethelredding.com/">media</a> <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">sites</a>, large turnouts at stadium rallies and conferences, and millions of dollars in media sales. In our interviews with leaders, we found that Bethel, an INC ministry based in Redding, California, for example, in 2013 had an income of US$8.4 million in media sales (music, books, DVDs, web-based content) and $7 million in tuition to their <a href="http://bssm.net">Bethel School of Supernatural Ministry</a>. </p>
<p>According to the director of media services at the Kansas City-based International House of Prayer (IHOP), their <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=O9c-DgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=google+pages+the+rise+of+network+Christianity&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju0f6HrdbSAhWLjVQKHZBNAAMQ6AEIHDAA#v=snippet&q=A%20number%20of%20IHOP%20leaders%20we%20interviewed&f=false">website receives</a> over 25 million hits every year from all over the world and is one of the top 50 websites in the world in terms of viewed video content (a million hours of watched video content per month). </p>
<h2>Appeal of INC</h2>
<p>As part of our research we conducted in-depth interviews with senior leaders, staff and current and former participants in INC Christian ministries. We also conducted supplementary interviews with Christian leaders and scholars with knowledge of the changing religious landscape and attended conferences, numerous church services, ministry school sessions, healing sessions and exorcisms. In all, we conducted 41 in-depth interviews. </p>
<p>Our primary conclusion is that the growth of these groups is largely the result of their network governance structure. When compared to the oversight and accountability of formal congregations and denominations, these structures allow for more experimentation. This includes “extreme” experiences of the supernatural, unorthodox beliefs and practices, and financing as well as marketing techniques that leverage the power of the internet.</p>
<p>In our research, we witnessed the appeal of INC Christianity, particularly among young people. We saw the thrill of holding impromptu supernatural healing sessions in the emergency room of a large public hospital, the intrigue of ministry school class sessions devoted to the techniques of casting out demonic spirits and the adventure of teams of young people going out into public places, seeking direct guidance from God as to whom to heal or to relay specific divine messages. </p>
<h2>‘Seven mountains of culture’</h2>
<p>In addition to the growth numbers, the importance of INC Christianity lies in the fact that its proponents have a fundamentally different view of the relationship between the Christian faith and society than most Christian groups throughout American history. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060630560/the-religious-history-of-america">Most Christian groups</a> in America have seen the role of the church as connecting individuals to God through the saving grace of Jesus and building congregations that provide communities of meaning and belonging through worship services. They also believe in serving and providing for the needs their local communities. Such traditional Christian groups believe that although the world can be improved, it will not be restored to God’s original plan (until Jesus comes back again to rule the Earth). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lou Engle, an American Charismatic Christian leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/edenfrangipane/1036678093/in/photolist-2zBfhe">eden frangipane</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>INC beliefs, however, are different – their leaders are not content simply to connect individuals to God and grow congregations. Most INC Christian groups we studied seek to bring heaven or God’s intended perfect society to Earth by placing “kingdom-minded people” in powerful positions at the top of all sectors of society. </p>
<p>INC leaders have labeled them the <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Invading_Babylon.html?id=GbqaZQS52gcC">“seven mountains of culture.”</a>
These include business, government, media, arts and entertainment, education, family and religion. In this form of “trickle-down Christianity,” they believe if Christians rise to the top of all seven “mountains,” society will be completely transformed. </p>
<p>One INC leader we interviewed summed it up this way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The goal of this new movement is transforming social units like cities, ethnic groups, nations rather than individuals…if Christians permeate each mountain and rise to the top of all seven mountains…society would have biblical morality, people would live in harmony, there would be peace and not war, there would be no poverty.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We heard <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=yZ3MCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT4&lpg=PT4&dq=The+Seven+Mountain+Prophecy:+Unveiling+the+Coming+Elijah+Revolution+creation+house&source=bl&ots=gbaQ4lJKwj&sig=ty55USPoxz7n02hQ6b3frjUcG88&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju-qGHqtbSAhWE3YMKHaX3DoAQ6AEIRjAI#v=onepage&q=The%20Seven%20Mountain%20Prophecy%3A%20Unveiling%20the%20Coming%20Elijah%20Revolution%20creation%20house&f=false">these ideas</a> repeatedly in most of our interviews, at events we attended and in INC media materials. </p>
<p>Most significantly, since the 2016 presidential election, some INC leaders have <a href="http://elijahlist.com/words/display_word.html?ID=17420">released public statements</a> claiming that the Trump presidency is part of fulfilling God’s plan to “bring heaven to Earth” by placing believers in top posts, including Rick Perry, who is currently heading the Energy Department; Betsy DeVos directing the Department of Education; and Ben Carson leading the Department of Housing and Urban Development. </p>
<h2>Changing the landscape</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is a movement to watch because we think it will continue to draw adherents in large numbers in the future. It will produce a growing number of Christians who see their goal not just as saving souls but as transforming society by taking control over its institutions.</p>
<p>We see the likelihood of INC Christians taking over the “seven mountains of culture” as slim. However, we also believe that this movement is sure to shake up the religious and political landscape for generations to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Christerson receives funding from John Templeton Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Flory receives funding from the John Templeton Founation. </span></em></p>A Christian movement led by popular independent religious entrepreneurs, often referred to as ‘apostles,’ is changing the religious landscape of America.Brad Christerson, Professor of Sociology, Biola UniversityRichard Flory, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/534532016-01-20T12:29:53Z2016-01-20T12:29:53ZWhy Donald Trump really does need Sarah Palin<p>With the Iowa caucuses less than two weeks away, former Alaska governor and vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/sarah-palin-donald-trump-2016/">has endorsed</a> Donald Trump’s bid to become the Republican nominee for president. Palin and Trump are, in many ways, kindred spirits: both have a flair for self-promotion that would put <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/bday/0705.html">P. T. Barnum</a> to shame, and both have the habit of making outrageous statements that delight their supporters and horrify everyone else.</p>
<p>Given Trump’s signature disdain for “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/08/losers-a-list-by-donald-trump/">losers</a>”, you’d think he’d be less effusive in his praise for Palin, a failed candidate and <a href="http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1908800,00.html">notorious mid-term dropout</a>. But with the first caucuses primaries looming, her support could actually make a crucial difference.</p>
<p>Regardless of one’s view of Palin and her suitability for high (or any) office, she draws both big crowds and hysterical press attention. Her involvement in an event guarantees coverage, even if it’s not necessarily of the most flattering kind. Much of Trump’s success has been built on a template very similar to her own post-2008 style: a potent blend of old-style political populism and inflammatory outbursts on any number of sensitive issues.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Mvlm3LKSlpU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>In this regard, she may be able to do a rather better job for Trump than she’s ever done for herself. Whereas Palin’s dismal grasp of policy all but destroyed her national reputation even on the right, Trump so far seems largely immune to criticism for his endless gaffes – meaning Palin isn’t quite the liability she might be for any other candidate.</p>
<p>One of Trump’s key assets is his uncanny ability to all but monopolise the media’s attention. The nonstop media coverage of the Trump circus means that his rivals in the GOP have been starved of coverage. As a result their own messages, or attacks on Trump, haven’t necessarily received the coverage they normally would have. </p>
<p>Equally, Trump hasn’t had to spend millions of his own money buying airtime for political ads; at his every radical or offensive pronouncement, journalists come running. Palin only guarantees more coverage. For the next day or two everyone will be discussing her and Trump – another two days when his rivals won’t get the attention they desperately need.</p>
<p>And besides, for all that she’s now considered almost a fringe figure, Palin could still rally some crucial supporters to Trump’s madcap cause. </p>
<h2>Firebrands unite</h2>
<p>As things currently stand, his only main rival in Iowa and New Hampshire is <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/ted-cruz-finds-eager-religious-audience-in-moderate-new-hampshire-217998">Ted Cruz</a>, the variously loved and loathed Texas senator who notoriously helped <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/ted-cruz-blasted-by-angry-gop-colleagues-government-shutdown-097753">shut down the government</a> for nearly three weeks in 2013. To win the nomination, both he and Trump must win over the same wings of the conservative base. </p>
<p>Until recently they kept their relationship fairly civil, each hoping that when the other falters or drops out, their supporters would happily come around. But with the race down to the wire, the gloves are coming off. Trump is now returning to his trademark practice of questioning other politicians’ American citizenship – this time a strategy targeted not at president Obama, but at Cruz, who was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35320021">born in Canada</a>.</p>
<p>This is where Palin could make a real difference. Despite years of media ridicule and Tina Fey’s immortal caricature on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HsyEvr5Pnw">Saturday Night Live</a>, she still has a significant base of support among the <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430028/tea-party-movement-dead">furious remnants of the Tea Party</a>. </p>
<p>Her endorsement might help Trump win over hard-right conservatives sceptical of his historically inconsistent views on gun control and his weak grasp of various right-wing shibboleths. If she can only bring across 5% or so of undecided Republican voters or Cruz supporters, she could push Trump over the top. </p>
<p>That she is a proudly religious woman could also help persuade <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ted-cruz-chases-the-evangelical-vote-in-iowa/">conservative Christian Iowans</a>, who feel queasy about voting for a candidate who’s been married three times and who has struggled to convince them he’s a man of faith.</p>
<h2>Creative destruction</h2>
<p>Trump and Palin supporters won’t be the only ones delighted by their meeting of minds. For many Democrats, this is a dream come true. </p>
<p>The other side is desperate for Trump to win the nomination. He’s currently succeeding by radically out-right-winging the rest of the Republican field on things like national security and immigration. This has dragged Trump’s rivals to the right as well, even to the extremes: former moderate standard-bearer Marco Rubio, for instance, has all but embraced Trump’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ROKBaTpy60">call to close mosques</a> as part of a crackdown on Muslims. </p>
<p>Regardless of who wins the nomination, this will make it much more difficult for them to appeal to the crucial independent and centre voters who will decide the election. For everything Trump says or does that delights his fans, he alienates a large chunk of moderate Americans. </p>
<p>And while there’s no serious talk of a Trump-Palin ticket as yet, the very idea of it has the mainstream left salivating. It would be nothing short of a dream come true – and would virtually guarantees Hillary Clinton (or <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/poll-hillary-clinton-trump-bernie-sanders-217963">perhaps even Bernie Sanders</a>) the key to the White House.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53453/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Mokhefi-Ashton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sarah Palin may have been relegated to the fringe, but Trump needs the fringe to win.Matthew Mokhefi-Ashton, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/499782015-10-30T10:41:58Z2015-10-30T10:41:58ZWhy the Republicans’ know-nothing outsider candidates are still on top<p>Former Florida governor and Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush must be wondering what on earth is happening. Wasn’t this a sure thing? Is it all a bad dream? If he clicks the heels of his wingtip shoes together three times and says “frontrunner”, will things go back to how they were supposed to be? </p>
<p>Conservative columnist Jason Russell <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/five-reasons-jeb-bush-will-be-the-next-president/article/2566237">forecast a Bush win</a> as recently as June 2015: “Given what we know now, I predict that Bush will become the 45th president of the United States”. Stranger things have happened – and it’s still in the realm of possibility. But right now Bush is playing catch-up to a couple of strong outsider candidates and one newbie – and obituaries for his campaign are <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/bush-walks-into-rubios-trap-215337">already</a> <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/jeb-bush-struggles/413014/">being</a> <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/426236/jeb-bush-marco-rubio-fight-cnbc-presidential-debate">written</a>. </p>
<p>His long-predicted rally in the polls has simply never happened. A <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/27/poll-watch-ben-carson-edges-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/">New York Times/CBS News survey</a> issued on October 27 showed retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in the lead with 26% of Republican voters; Donald Trump came in second at 22%. Bush didn’t even make it to the third slot, held by Florida senator, Marco Rubio, with 8%, instead tying for fourth with former HP CEO Carly Fiorina on 7%.</p>
<p>It wasn’t all good news for Carson. The poll also revealed “that Mr Trump’s supporters are firmer in their support than Mr Carson’s. A majority of Trump supporters, 55%, said their minds were made up. But 80% of Carson backers said it was too early to say for sure that they would eventually support him.” </p>
<p>Still, it’s obvious the active base of the party has little to no interest in the establishment candidates – and is even outright hostile to them.</p>
<h2>The beer test</h2>
<p>This has been driving Bush to distraction lately. During an October 25 town hall meeting in Charleston, South Carolina, he lashed out: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If this election is about how we’re going to fight to get nothing done, then I don’t want to have any part of it … I got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around and be miserable, listening to people demonise me and and me feeling compelled to demonise them. That is a joke. Elect Trump if you want that.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/reU6f2XXLHY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>That mix of contempt and self-pity smacks of an entitled sore loser, and it won’t win anyone over. The conservative base has shown again and again that it prefers the regular guy, a part played in the home stretch of 2008 by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUvwKVvp3-o">Joe the Plumber</a>. In the 2000 election, Jeb’s brother George W. was able to play this role in spite of his presidential pedigree; Sam Adams and Roper Starch conducted a <a href="http://www.realbeer.com/news/articles/news-001395.php">poll</a> that revealed (surprise!) that more Americans would like to sit down and drink a beer with Bush than his rival, the buttoned-down, robotic Democrat, Al Gore. </p>
<p>The hard right’s preference for the unvarnished authenticity of a non-politician is especially strong in this year’s campaign, but it’s <a href="http://www.cjr.org/second_read/richard_hofstadter_tea_party.php">not a new phenomenon</a>. In 1837, the New England literary giant Ralph Waldo Emerson observed that: “The mind of this country, taught to aim at low objects, eats upon itself.” Being unlettered or uninformed in the world of politics or church life is not a liability. Sometimes it’s even an asset. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/ap-gfk-poll-republicans-prefer-outsider-candidate-121933438--election.html">poll by AP-GfK</a> reveals that “an overwhelming 77% to 22% margin, Republican registered voters say they prefer an outsider candidate who will change how things are done, rather than someone with experience in Washington who can get things done.” These voters also want “someone with private-sector leadership experience over experience holding elected office, 76% to 22%.” You can almost hear a thud as party chairman <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/28/rnc-reince-priebus-trashes-hostile-rubiks-cube-cnbc-debate/">Reince Priebus</a> faints and falls to the ground.</p>
<h2>Rank outsiders</h2>
<p>This fondness for the newbie, the rookie who would shake things up was already front and centre when Sarah Palin was named John McCain’s running mate in 2008. Palin spat in the face of Washington figures, education experts, climate scientists, biologists, and healthcare specialists – and she has continued doing so long after she and McCain were defeated. </p>
<p>At a 2010 <a href="http://mediamatters.org/video/2010/02/06/palin-we-need-a-commander-in-chief-not-a-profes/160170">Tea Party convention</a> she took aim at Obama and his law degree, shouting out to the crowded room: “We need a commander-in-chief not a professor of law standing at the lectern!” And at the start of 2015, she was roundly mocked for a <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/sarah-palin-dishes-bizarre-improvised-rant-iowa-article-1.2091124">rambling, semi-improvised speech</a> where she advised “GOP leaders” that: “The man can only ride you when your back is bent!”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RrzD-zqWwWc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Trump is mining the same rich vein as Palin when he blasts all those eggheads who seem to think they know more than the average man or woman on the street. Maybe <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2015/09/17/the-origins-of-donald-trumps-autismvaccine-theory-and-how-it-was-completely-debunked-eons-ago/">vaccines do cause autism</a>, Trump suggested in the September debate. His freewheeling Twitter presence offers more where that came from:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"656100109386674176"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"619218062995230720"}"></div></p>
<p>That “plain folk” wisdom appeals to many in the states. According to <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/168620/one-four-solidly-skeptical-global-warming.aspx?g_source=CATEGORY_CLIMATE_CHANGE&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles">Gallup data</a>, climate change scepticism rose from 12% in 2002 to 25% in 2014.</p>
<p>Trump, Carson and their ilk dismiss or mock the politics and theories of “elites” and decry their critics as propagandists. The “liberal media” canard worked well for Senator Ted Cruz, who rebuked his CNBC hosts: “Let me say something at the outset. The questions that have been asked so far in this debate illustrate why the American people don’t trust the media.” The crowd roared with approval. Critical questions asked by the CNBC crew were met with loud boos and hisses. “I know the Democrats have the ultimate SuperPac,” said Rubio. “It’s called the mainstream media.”</p>
<p>The populist base of the party is as sceptical of the media and career politicians as it is of expertise in general – and even of the government itself. In 1986, Ronald Reagan famously <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhYJS80MgYA">derided an incompetent federal government</a>: “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help’.” Grover Norquist, a Reagan disciple and founder of <a href="http://www.atr.org/">Americans for Tax Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/opinion/05herbert.html">put it more bluntly</a>: “Our goal is to shrink government to the size where we can drown it in a bathtub.” </p>
<p>The simple equation remains the same today: government: bad, the private sector: good. So said New Jersey governor, Chris Christie, at the October debate: “Don’t send Washington another dime until they stop wasting the money they’re already sending there.”</p>
<p>But scepticism of grandiose government overreach is one thing and a general resistance to any “elitist” with an “expert” opinion quite another. The expertise of health professionals who support Obamacare, the hard science on global warming, research on the age of the earth and human evolution, the statistics on the <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-08/24/gun-ownership-mass-shootings-us-study">availability of guns and mass shootings</a> – to the base these “facts” are nothing more than politically correct liberal nonsense. </p>
<p>In September, Fox News, the <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/07/like-pravda-covering-chernobyl-fox-news-on-the-murdoch-problems/241875/">Pravda of the right</a>, <a href="http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/09/23/fox-news-poll-outsiders-donald-trump-ben-carson-carly-fiorina-dominating-gop-field">reported</a> that 62% of its Republican viewers felt “‘betrayed’ by politicians in their party” – and it seems they’re duly rallying around the straight-shooting newcomers.</p>
<p>But if this populist trend continues, the GOP base will elevate a candidate who is as incapable of attracting voters as he or she is uniformed. One big-name candidate on the opposite side of the aisle – about as insider as an insider could be – is surely grinning from ear to ear as she <a href="https://theconversation.com/clinton-parries-biden-benghazi-and-bernie-sanders-to-reclaim-pole-position-49527">gets the champagne ready</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49978/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Randall J. Stephens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Republican base wants its country back from the “insiders” – by which it means anyone with conventional expertise.Randall J. Stephens, Reader in History and American Studies, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/65422012-04-22T20:33:18Z2012-04-22T20:33:18ZObama is a Muslim Black Panther! Republican candidates and the conservative media<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9762/original/xrmh3z8y-1334800743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">They politics is show business for ugly people? Either way, types like Mike Huckabee have completely blurred the line between the two.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Last week marked the launch of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee’s conservative talk radio program, <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/huckabee/index.html">The Huckabee Show</a>. It also marked a sea-change from this time last year, when Huckabee topped national polls as the leading contender for the Republican nomination.</p>
<p>Yet far from being an oddity, Huckabee’s twin tracks - candidate and commentator - have become a standard feature of Republican Party politics. These days, a revolving door exists between conservative media and Republican candidates. </p>
<p>Look at <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/">Fox News</a>. It now houses both Huckabee and former Alaska governor <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin">Sarah Palin</a>, remainders from the 2008 election. For the 2012 race, Fox had to suspend the contracts of <a href="http://www.newt.org/">Newt Gingrich</a> and <a href="http://www.ricksantorum.com/">Rick Santorum</a> so they could launch their presidential bids.</p>
<p>The problem with this media-party merger isn’t the contractual relationship between Fox News and Republican politicians. It’s that the qualities that make a good ideologue-cum-entertainer aren’t the same qualities that make a good presidential candidate. </p>
<p>The most popular forms of conservative media – talk radio and cable opinion shows – favour shock and simplicity. They view politics as a moral battle in which compromise is capitulation, in which ideological consistency is not the hobgoblin of a little mind but a sure sign of a rising star.</p>
<p>Understanding the merger of conservative media and the Republican party helps us better understand the freewheeling circus the nomination race became this fall. The crazy-quilt cast of candidates was well-versed in a language honed by conservative media. </p>
<p>A quip about teleprompters here, a reference to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals">Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals</a> there, and any one of the candidates could find himself leading the polls. And just about all of them did. The Republican nomination race had eleven frontrunners, by far the most in recent history.</p>
<p>This year’s tumultuous primary was the end result of the merger of conservative media and Republican Party politics. The roots of that merger reach all the way back to 1964, the year <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Goldwater">Barry Goldwater</a> became the Republican nominee.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9808/original/bwt3pk36-1334894460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9808/original/bwt3pk36-1334894460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=826&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9808/original/bwt3pk36-1334894460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=826&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9808/original/bwt3pk36-1334894460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=826&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9808/original/bwt3pk36-1334894460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1038&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9808/original/bwt3pk36-1334894460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1038&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9808/original/bwt3pk36-1334894460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1038&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former vice presidential candidate and Alaska governor Sarah Palin is now a Fox News pundit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tannen Maury</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Goldwater’s presidential candidacy was largely a product of conservative media. Clarence Manion, host of the right-wing radio program <a href="http://www.mellenpress.com/mellenpress.cfm?bookid=4017&pc=9">The Manion Forum</a> from 1954 to 1979, single-handedly made Goldwater the face of modern conservatism with the book Conscience of a Conservative, which Manion conceived, pitched, published, and distributed.</p>
<p>Goldwater’s proposals – cutting off diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union, making Social Security voluntary, ending the progressive income tax – were manna from heaven for conservatives adrift in a liberal age. The rest of the electorate, however, found them harder to swallow.</p>
<p>Unfamiliar with the language and grievances nursed in conservative media, most voters recoiled from Goldwater’s stances. He lost in one of the biggest landslides in American presidential history. The shellacking sprang directly from his candidacy’s origins. Forged in conservative media, it never broke out of that mould.</p>
<p>Both conservative media and the Republican Party learned from the Goldwater fiasco. The conservative journal <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/">National Review</a> pledged from then on to support the most rightward electable candidate. The party, meanwhile, swung toward politicians with broader appeal.</p>
<p>Candidates, too, drew lessons from 1964. Conservative media clearly influenced the nomination process. Presidential aspirants knew they would need to reach out to them. The question was how close they could get without a spectacular Goldwater-esque flameout. In the next election, Republican <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon">Richard Nixon</a> decided to court conservative media but not wed himself to them. That proved enough to win endorsements from Clarence Manion, National Review, and the newsweekly Human Events.</p>
<p>The relationship quickly went south, however. Nixon’s liberalism at home and pragmatism abroad alienated many in conservative media. The self-styled Manhattan Twelve, a dozen conservative leaders coming mainly from right-wing media outlets, issued a statement in 1971 publicly withdrawing their support. In 1972, they threw their energies into running a conservative challenger against Nixon in the primaries. To do so was not a betrayal of the party, they claimed, but “an act of loyalty to the Nixon we supported in 1968”.</p>
<p>A more masterful and more conservative politician, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan">Ronald Reagan</a>, found the sweet spot between pragmatic politician and conservative media darling. Reagan came of age politically in the conservative movement and mingled regularly with people in conservative media. He excelled both at rhetoric and relationships, two keys to right-wing media success. Though as president he hiked taxes and grew government, his concerted efforts to win them over ensured people in conservative media muttered but never mutinied.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9809/original/bs96ptgg-1334895839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9809/original/bs96ptgg-1334895839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9809/original/bs96ptgg-1334895839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9809/original/bs96ptgg-1334895839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9809/original/bs96ptgg-1334895839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9809/original/bs96ptgg-1334895839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/9809/original/bs96ptgg-1334895839.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Radio host Rush Limbaugh has proven a defining figure in modern conservative media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jim Sulley</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By the mid-1990s, however, the Republican Party and conservative media again started to merge as they had in 1964. This left much less room for the sort of compromise and flexibility Reagan exhibited.</p>
<p>We see this in talk radio host <a href="http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/">Rush Limbaugh’s</a> rise. When the first President Bush lost his re-election campaign in 1992, Reagan wrote Limbaugh to say: “Now that I’ve retired from active politics, I don’t mind that you’ve become the number-one voice for conservatism in our country.”</p>
<p>The number-one voice for conservatism, yes, but in time Limbaugh would also become the number-one voice for the Republican Party. When Republicans swept Congress in 1994, they believed themselves so indebted to Limbaugh that they showered him with accolades. They made him an honorary member of the GOP’s freshman class, presenting him with a button that read “The Majority Maker.” After all, one congressman declared, “Surely he helped us become the majority!”</p>
<p>So they believed, and so they paid tribute. During his presidency, George W. Bush cultivated a close relationship with Limbaugh, and in return Limbaugh supported the administration. Though the Bush administration sank into unpopularity by 2006, Limbaugh stayed afloat. An early 2009 poll asked voters who led the Republican Party. The top response? Not a politician or an organiser or an activist, but Rush Limbaugh. The Republican Party and conservative media had fully merged.</p>
<p>That merger came at a cost. Limbaugh has become largely untouchable in Republican circles. In 2009, Republican Party chair <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Steele">Michael Steele</a> called The Rush Limbaugh Show “incendiary” and “ugly.” Rush fired back the next day, and within hours Steele publicly apologised. The same dynamic came into play after Limbaugh called a law student a “slut” and a “prostitute” for her advocacy of the Obama administration’s contraception mandate. An unwillingness to cross Limbaugh led to the cringe-inducing spectacle of three presidential candidates refusing to deliver more than the most tepid of reproaches.</p>
<p>But the cost of this merger is far greater than Republican obeisance. The mingling of conservative media and the Republican Party accounts for why, with the U.S. mired in serious fiscal and foreign crises, so many unserious candidates rose to the top of the Republican field. As media-focused politicos, they could produce sound bites but not sound policy. Wary of attacks from conservative media, the remaining candidates have run so far right they now find themselves denouncing contraception and college education.</p>
<p>Despite the high price, the situation will remain unchanged until conservative media and the Republican Party return to their distinct and separate roles—one developing the ideas and messages of a movement, and the other doing the hard work of compromise central to the project of governing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/6542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Hemmer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Last week marked the launch of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee’s conservative talk radio program, The Huckabee Show. It also marked a sea-change from this time last year, when Huckabee topped national…Nicole Hemmer, Visiting Assistant Professor at University of Miami & Research Associate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/38242011-10-19T19:25:09Z2011-10-19T19:25:09ZThe power of personality - why we all follow the soap opera of American politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4520/original/Obama_dog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C29%2C2200%2C1320&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Barack Obama's life may be fascinating, but he isn't as powerful as we think.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP/Saul Loeb</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sarah Palin’s voice, both in sound and content, still has the power to stop me dead in my tracks with fear and bewilderment. Her game of will she/won’t she run for the US Presidency <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/06/sarah-palin-pulls-out-presidential-race">has ended</a>, but not without the world’s media following every twist and turn. </p>
<p>From her youthful attempts to become Miss Alaska, to her teenage daughter’s pregnancy, there isn’t much we haven’t learned about her since she <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25970882/ns/politics-decision_08/t/vp-pick-palin-makes-appeal-women-voters/">stepped into the spotlight</a> three years ago. </p>
<p>Whoever wins the Republican nomination in 2012 will have their lives scrutinised in similarly agonising detail by the media. They must compete with one of the most fascinating politicians of modern times - Barack Obama.</p>
<h2>Politics of personality</h2>
<p>Each US election cycle politicians like Obama and Palin grab our attention not only because of their personalities but also because of their potential role as agents of change. </p>
<p>But the power of individual actors in US politics is constantly overestimated. </p>
<p>For all the fanfare about their personalities and biographies and how these will affect the way they rule, such individuals are often just surfers on the waves of American politics. </p>
<p>Surfing – whether done well or badly – is fascinating to watch but it is the waves that largely determine unemployment and growth rates; the passing of taxation reform or policies to tackle global warming; or America’s lack of support for the Palestinian bid for statehood in the Security Council of the UN. </p>
<h2>Limits of power</h2>
<p>You do not have to be a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_Marxism">Structural Marxist</a> or an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutionalism">Institutionalist</a> to accept these grown up realities about politics. </p>
<p>The last few years have provided copious evidence of the limits of the President of the United States to change his own nation, let alone the world. </p>
<p>Many of us would like to believe the global financial crisis could have been avoided if governments had not been fooled by the mania for deregulation. </p>
<p>Instead they could have achieved better banking regulation; legislation that separated high risk investing from the day-to-day saving and loans activities within individual banks; rules that <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8328919.stm">prevented British councils</a> from investing in Icelandic banks or German banks investing in Greek holiday resorts run by corrupt priests; and the better monitoring and management of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-usa-housing-fanniemae-idUSTRE79B6BU20111012">Fannie Mae</a> and <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111011-713009.html">Freddie Mac</a> by regulators so the subprime crisis did not spread like a virus across the globe. </p>
<p>The reality is that while all of this could have helped, greed, bad luck, and the nature of modern financial and credit markets made a crash likely at some point. And fixing this meltdown has required much more than great speeches. </p>
<h2>Structural reform</h2>
<p>In terms of structural reform, the start made by <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8583350.stm">Obama on the American health system</a>’s great failings offer some hope. </p>
<p>When Obama and Congress addressed the lack of health cover for many Americans in 2010, it was one of the great achievements made by any set of politicians since the 1960s, and one of the few examples in the last twenty years of Congress passing a major piece of broadly social democratic legislation. </p>
<p>While health care reforms may enliven those hankering for structural reform, the <a href="http://theconversation.com/us-debt-deal-experts-respond-2615">2011 debt crisis</a> offers nothing but grounds for pessimism in this regard. </p>
<p>Addressing America’s significant federal government debt needs to be accompanied by structural changes: the restructuring of domestic income tax, major federal spending cuts and changes in eligibility for government health care support and old age pensions.</p>
<p>Barack Obama can do very little to achieve the type of change necessary to fix the deeper structural spending problems. </p>
<p>The one major exception is that, at the end of 2012, he can <a href="http://money.msn.com/tax-tips/post.aspx?post=02b8cc74-102d-49f9-aa31-ebfd96e030a2">choose not to extend</a> the so-called George W Bush tax cuts to wealthy Americans.</p>
<h2>Broken politics</h2>
<p>Obama so often looks politically impotent on these issues because he can achieve little without the support of the US Congress and Congress is a broken institution. </p>
<p>As America has faced one crisis after another in recent years, the focus has not been on policies or the dysfunctional nature of the relationship between the Congress and the presidency. </p>
<p>Instead since 2007 the most alluring show in American politics has been the selection of the next presidential candidates. </p>
<h2>Soap opera</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4521/original/Palin_bike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4521/original/Palin_bike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4521/original/Palin_bike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4521/original/Palin_bike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4521/original/Palin_bike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4521/original/Palin_bike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4521/original/Palin_bike.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sarah Palin’s soap opera rolled into towns all over America before she announced she isn’t going to run in 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP/Paul J. Richards</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Academics frequently criticise the media for treating politics like a circus sideshow (even ex-politicians are joining the chorus here) or a horse race. </p>
<p>When it comes to US electoral politics the best analogy for this coverage (and our interests) is a soap opera. Of course individuals are important in politics but this power is constantly overstated. </p>
<p>As a result, the “cult of personality” style of US political coverage sees the expectations of the public raised with each new president.</p>
<p>After the election, the lack of real change leads to a cycle of public disillusionment in America. </p>
<p>This is also discernible abroad, usually following the election of conservative presidents. </p>
<h2>Foreign engagement</h2>
<p>If the media deserves blame for a lack of focus on structural problems, it cannot be faulted for maintaining the premier place of American politics globally. </p>
<p>Foreigners are engaged to an astounding extent with the coverage of American politics, the soap opera quality of which is enhanced by the peculiar drawn out voting process for the president. </p>
<p>The conventional explanation for our interest is US power: this is half right but way too high minded. We care because we are soap opera junkies. </p>
<h2>Global influence</h2>
<p>The fascinating part of the media’s obsession with American political personality is that this soap opera significantly helps America maintain its global influence and deal with one of its major structural problems: its relative global decline. </p>
<p>It gives the US power as an agenda setter and as a shaper of what is deemed possible and impossible in world politics. </p>
<p>In no small part our familiarity with US leaders ensures that the American position on key issues is presented in the media. </p>
<p>Of course the wheels of change are turning but US decline will be a long time coming, precisely because American political and cultural power and influence will long outlive America’s status as the largest economy in the world. </p>
<p>In Australia, our long standing familiarity with American culture and American politics is thus a blessing and a curse: it helps us understand the world around us a little better, but gives America too much of a hold on our political imaginations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/3824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I have received ARC funding in the past; but no present funding.</span></em></p>Sarah Palin’s voice, both in sound and content, still has the power to stop me dead in my tracks with fear and bewilderment. Her game of will she/won’t she run for the US Presidency has ended, but not…Brendon O'Connor, Associate Professor in American Politics at the United States Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.