tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/shipping-3059/articlesShipping – The Conversation2024-03-28T18:54:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2268342024-03-28T18:54:32Z2024-03-28T18:54:32ZAfter the Baltimore bridge collapse, we need clear-eyed assessments of the risks to key infrastructure<p>Catastrophic collapses of major bridges are thankfully rare. Notable examples in the last couple of decades include the failure of the <a href="https://www.dot.state.mn.us/i35wbridge/collapse.html">I35-W in Minneapolis in August 2007</a>, and the collapse of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/genoa-bridge-collapse-maintaining-these-%20structures-is-a-constant-battle-against-traffic-and-decay-101627">Morandi bridge in Genoa 11 years later</a>. When such events do occur, public attention is understandably focused on the nature of the collapse, which can extend over hundreds of metres in seconds, and its underlying causes. </p>
<p>Whether because of an extreme loading event or an accident, these supposedly rare events in the life of a bridge still need to be assessed before they happen, and mitigation measures taken in accordance with all the potential consequences. This type of analysis is known as a “risk-based consequence assessment”. The cost of taking additional measures in the near term can prevent major adverse consequences further down the road.</p>
<p>With many of these structures being over 50 years old, we often hear that a bridge’s condition may have been compromised by deterioration and increased traffic loads – both in the size and frequency of vehicles. Also, older bridges were designed to standards that have been superseded by new knowledge and technology.</p>
<p>While these factors have helped convince some politicians to increase their infrastructure budgets, including through the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-%20releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal</a> in the US, the tendency has been to focus on stronger, more resilient new structures and on higher maintenance for existing structures. The latter makes it easy for politicians to show the money spent has had a positive impact, because it results in an overall reduction in the number of bridges classified as obsolete or deficient.</p>
<p>Given the enormous scale of the bridge maintenance problem – the American Road Transportation Builders Association has estimated that <a href="https://theconversation.com/disasters-like-bridge-collapses-put-%20transportation-agencies-emergency-plans-to-the-test-207779">one in three US bridges needs repair</a> – it makes sense to spread available funding widely. However, this approach can have serious shortcomings if it does not set clear priorities based on the scale of potential consequences from accidents and failures.</p>
<p>One of the two central pylons of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_(Baltimore)">Francis Scott Key bridge</a> in Baltimore was rammed by a 300m-long container ship at around 1.30am on March 24, leading to progressive collapse of the bridge’s entire <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truss_bridge">truss</a> within four seconds. </p>
<p>Although the 47-year-old bridge had been <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-condition-container-ship-what-we-know-how-collapse-happened/">found to be in a “fair” condition</a> during its most recent inspection in 2008, and was “fully up to code” according to Maryland’s governor after the collision, experts agreed that a catastrophic collapse <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-%20bridge-baltimore-condition-container-ship-what-we-know-how-collapse-happened/">was to be expected</a> given the magnitude of the ship’s impact. Maintenance workers were on the bridge at the time filling potholes, including the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68673146">six people who died</a>.</p>
<h2>Direct and indirect consequences</h2>
<p>Bridge collapses due to vessel collisions have happened before and unfortunately will happen again. In a similar incident in 1980, <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=20417">the Sunshine Skyway bridge in Tampa Bay</a>, also a steel truss structure, was hit by a barge, resulting in 35 casualties due to the collapse of over 400m (1,300ft) of its span. </p>
<p>Around the world, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials has reported 31 major bridge collapses <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2020.102840">due to vessel collisions</a> between 1960 and 2002, resulting in 342 deaths.</p>
<p>The latest, the destruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, has cut off one of three transport links across the Patapsco river in the busy Baltimore port area. Given its importance as a transport hub, this will have major economic implications that could have been anticipated. </p>
<p>More than 30,000 vehicles that were using the Key Bridge daily now have to seek alternative routes. Significantly, the other two local crossings are via tunnels, which imposes limits on the type of traffic that can cross the river because the transporting of hazardous materials through tunnels is prohibited.</p>
<p>Shipping traffic into and out of the Baltimore port has been suspended until further notice. Removal of the debris will be a complex operation, and work to ensure all vessel types can navigate the river safely will take time. Further restrictions will then need to be in place when the new bridge is constructed.</p>
<p>There are already signs that supply chains around the world are being affected by the bridge collapse, especially in the car and light truck sector, and in farm and construction machinery. </p>
<p>The economic consequences of this catastrophic event will be substantial at both city and state level. Early estimates on liability insurance payouts suggest the total cost may <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/17cf3f2e-e64d-4666-b1c2-2723347c2ada">exceed US$1.5 billion (£1.2 billion)</a>. </p>
<p>Judging by what has happened after past bridge collapses, there could be negative impacts on jobs and the local economy: about 14,000 people work in the port itself, and another 140,000 are employed in related services. </p>
<p>Above all, six people lost their lives. But the human cost could have been much worse if the incident had taken place during rush hour. Had the impact occurred with a vessel carrying hazardous materials, the environmental costs could have been dramatic as well.</p>
<p>Given what we know from previous incidents about the severity of ship-bridge collisions and major bridge collapses, it was clear this bridge was of critical importance.</p>
<p>A number of mitigation options are available to bridges, including the installation of protection devices around the bridge supports (pylons) in the form of fenders or artificial islands, to deflect a ship or lessen the energy of a collision. </p>
<p>For bridges in general, there are measures that can help on the ship side too, such as requiring the use of tugboats or introducing stricter limits on speeds, depending on the type of cargo and vessel size. It is not clear, however, whether these would have made any difference in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse.</p>
<p>Above all, by undertaking a risk-based consequence assessment every decade or so, authorities that are responsible for vital infrastructure can help visualise changing risks and prioritise their responses appropriately. In the case of river bridges, ever-increasing ship sizes, speedier turnaround times and higher cargo volumes have all increased the risks – and the costs of a catastrophic collision or collapse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marios Chryssanthopoulos has received funding from UKRI, Network Rail, Highways Agency and the European Commission.</span></em></p>The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge is already affecting global supply chains.Marios Chryssanthopoulos, Professor of Structural Systems, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2203372024-03-28T17:33:56Z2024-03-28T17:33:56ZA human, environmental and economic emergency response to the Baltimore Key Bridge collapse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585126/original/file-20240328-22-lc2w7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4993%2C3079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Coast Guard cutter passes the cargo ship Dali that collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Md. on March 26. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Steve Helber)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On March 26, the container ship Dali in Baltimore’s industrial harbour <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-cargo-ship-dali-09aeffc6fa81f3069d4ba226def90555">struck an interstate highway bridge</a>, causing it to catastrophically collapse. Eight highway maintenance workers were <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/who-is-missing-in-baltimores-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-what-we-know-about-those-unaccounted-for/">thought to be on the bridge at the time of collapse</a>. Two were <a href="https://www.wbaltv.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-update-2-rescued-so-far/60305176">rescued</a>, and two bodies <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/us/victims-death-latest.html">were recovered</a>. Four workers remain missing, and are now <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/maryland-bridge-collapse-francis-scott-key-bridge-boat-baltimore-rcna145047">presumed dead</a>.</p>
<p>The ship-bridge collision was a technological disaster, defined as an event caused by <a href="https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/publication/FY1230">a malfunction of a technological structure</a> or human error in controlling or handling the technology. </p>
<p>In this case, the root cause of the disaster involved the interaction of two types of transportation technologies: a moving container ship and a fixed bridge.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/human-centred-design-can-help-reduce-accidents-like-the-recent-ethiopian-airlines-boeing-737-crash-113987">Human-centred design can help reduce accidents like the recent Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 crash</a>
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<h2>A history of bridge collapses</h2>
<p>The disaster is not unprecedented — between 1960 to 2015 there have been <a href="https://conference-service.com/pianc-panama/documents/agenda/data/full_papers/full_paper_46.pdf">35 major bridge collapses</a> due to collisions by ships or barges.</p>
<p>On Feb. 22, in Guangzhou, south China, a container ship rammed into a bridge pillar leading to the subsequent <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/container-ship-hits-bridge-in-south-china-killing-5-and-knocking-section-of-roadway-into-the-water-1.6778666">collapse of the Lixinsha Bridge</a>, and killing five people. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="photo of ships and boats sail on a river. a bridge with a section missing from the middle is in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A massive container ship crashed into the Lixinsha Bridge in southern China on Feb. 22, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Lu Hanxin/Xinhua via AP)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The collapse of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2024/03/26/francis-scott-key-bridge-history-baltimore/">Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> serves as another stark reminder that despite our technological prowess, accidents involving transportation technology will continue to occur when we least expect them.</p>
<h2>The immediate response</h2>
<p>The immediate response started with a mayday call from the troubled ship causing police to take action to prevent more cars from going onto the bridge. U.S. Coast Guard watchstanders received <a href="https://www.news.uscg.mil/Press-Releases/Article/3718320/coast-guard-multiple-partners-agencies-responding-to-francis-scott-key-bridge-c/">a report at 1:27 a.m.</a> of a container ship colliding with the bridge, and immediately deployed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-03-27-24/index.html">search and rescue boats to the shipping channel in Baltimore’s harbour</a>.</p>
<p>The first 24 hours after the collapse focused on saving more lives, to no avail. People who survived the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-do-we-know-about-baltimores-francis-scott-key-bridge-2024-03-26/">56-metre fall from the bridge deck</a> into the Patapsco River then faced <a href="https://www.today.com/news/baltimore-bridge-collapse-survivors-cold-water-rcna145083">water temperatures of nine degrees Celsius</a>. </p>
<p>If not immediately rescued, chances of survival in cold river water become difficult due to <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/coldwater">cold shock and hypothermia</a> setting in.</p>
<p>Tons of submerged bridge wreckage and tidal currents created <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/03/26/search-rescue-baltimore-bridge-collapse/">perilous conditions</a> for rescue operations. After an extensive search and rescue effort until sunset on March 26, the next-day emergency response activity transitioned to the grim task of recovery of the dead.</p>
<p>About eight hours after the collapse, the mayor of Baltimore declared a <a href="https://mayor.baltimorecity.gov/news/press-releases/2024-03-26-mayor-scott-issues-state-emergency">state of emergency</a>. The governor then issued <a href="https://governor.maryland.gov/Lists/ExecutiveOrders/Attachments/39/EO%2001.01.2024.09%20Declaration%20of%20a%20State%20of%20Emergency_Accessible.pdf">an executive order</a>, declaring a state of emergency for Maryland.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a shipyard with rows of shipping containers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Port of Baltimore is one of the busiest harbours in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/state-of-emergency-maryland-bridge-collapse.html">state of emergency</a> allows officials to temporarily use extraordinary powers. Suspension of laws and regulations, quick redirection of funds, rapid deployment of personnel and the facilitation of federal aid are all reasons why a state of emergency would be declared. </p>
<p>The collision caused all maritime traffic to be stopped — <a href="https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/article/21285314/port-blocked-by-baltimore-bridge-collapse-is-key-hub-for-us-shipping">a significant impact on one of the busiest harbours in the United States</a> as a port of entry for foreign goods. Most of the Port of Baltimore’s shipping terminals are located within <a href="https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/2021TerminalMap.pdf">the area blocked by bridge collapse debris</a>.</p>
<p>In this case, the emergency declarations <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/27/baltimore-key-bridge-rebuild-timeline/">may allow governments to waive regulations</a> around competitive bidding to speed the eventual bridge rebuilding project.</p>
<h2>Pollution and debris clean-up</h2>
<p>Immediately after the collision, response operations include preventing environmental contamination. As the distressed cargo ship was departing to the Port of Colombo, Sri Lanka, it had on board about <a href="https://abc11.com/dali-cargo-ship-baltimore-bridge-collapse-patapsco-river/14577560/">1.8 million gallons of fuel</a>. Out of the thousands of containers being transported, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/27/baltimore-bridge-collapse-bodies-missing-workers/">56 containers contained 764 tons of hazardous materials</a>. </p>
<p>Removing the damaged steel latticework of the bridge’s trusses off the bow of the ship will be a challenging feat. </p>
<p>Debris now blocks navigation along the Fort McHenry Channel. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has started <a href="https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/3719448/army-corps-of-engineers-is-supporting-recovery-operations-following-francis-sco/">underwater surveys</a> to assess what needs to be done for debris removal.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9IG9OBINuvg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. White House press briefing after the Baltimore bridge collision.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The debris removal effort will be especially complex as sensitivity is required. In and around the same area where the <a href="https://www.marinelog.com/news/corps-supporting-recovery-operations-following-baltimore-bridge-collapse/">federal debris removal assessment</a> is taking place, rescue officials were searching for bodies — the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-03-28-24/h_586e28d0a65dece9b4f0577972b94592">search has been paused for safety reasons</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://mdsp.maryland.gov/Organization/Pages/FieldOperationsBureau/UnderwaterRecoveryTeam.aspx">Maryland State Police underwater recovery team</a> has responsibilities involving the recovery of the bodies of the missing highway workers. </p>
<h2>Unified command response</h2>
<p>Unified command is an emergency management technique applied when <a href="https://www.nrt.org/sites/2/files/UC%20TAD%201-26-07%20FINAL.pdf">there is more than one agency with incident jurisdiction</a>. </p>
<p>The Fort McHenry navigation channel and the I-695 bridge itself fall under multiple local, state and federal jurisdictional responsibilities. On March 27, a <a href="https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/post/baltimore-s-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapses-after-mv-dali-allided-with-bridge-column">unified command joint information centre</a> was established to co-ordinate emergency responses.</p>
<p>Sadly, within the first 48 hours search and rescue transitioned to search and recovery. Operations will be moving in the direction of salvage and <a href="https://homeport.uscg.mil/Lists/Content/Attachments/1626/MTSRU%20Information%20Sheet%20v4%200.pdf">port recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Going forward, the main priority is clearing the shipping channel to reopen the Port of Baltimore. True to form to the characteristics of a technological disaster, it will take a while to determine the scope of the impacts. </p>
<p>For the immediate future, timelines for when the Baltimore Harbour can return to normal will remain elusive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack L. Rozdilsky receives support for research communication and public scholarship from York University. He also has received research support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.</span></em></p>A cargo ship leaving the Port of Baltimore collided with a bridge in a technological disaster that may have claimed the lives of up to six maintenance workers on the bridge at the time.Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267852024-03-28T10:23:50Z2024-03-28T10:23:50ZBaltimore Key Bridge: how a domino effect brought it down in seconds<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68663071">collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> in Baltimore on 26 March was a shocking and tragic event. Six people remain unaccounted for in the disaster, which saw the world’s third largest continuous truss bridge fall into the Patapsco river.</p>
<p>The cause was Singapore-flagged container ship, the Dali, which veered off course, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/baltimore-bridge-collapse-ship-what-caused-crash-francis-scott-key-dali/">colliding with one of the bridge’s supports</a>, or piers. As the 300 metre-long vessel slammed into the structure, it triggered what’s known as a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123023002177">progressive collapse</a>, where a domino effect leads to the entire structure failing. The bridge, built more than 45 years ago, crashed down into the frigid water at 1:28am eastern standard time (5:28 UTC).</p>
<p>But how could one ship bring down this 366m (1,200 ft) structure within seconds of the collision? </p>
<p>A progressive collapse involves the failure of a single element, like the pier, and results in the sequential failure of other connected components. These can include the metallic truss and the bridge’s deck. This type of collapse can have catastrophic consequences in terms of the risk to human life, as well as to the economy of an area and the local environment. </p>
<p>Although it’s impossible to account for every scenario, bridges can be built with inherent features that enhance their resistance to progressive collapse. Typically, bridges can withstand some degree of damage to a pier or part of the superstructure. The bridge deck can even remain safe for vehicles depending on the circumstances.</p>
<p>However, in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse, the metallic truss was designed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2024/03/26/francis-scott-key-bridge-history-baltimore/">as one continuous system</a>. The space between each support, or pier, is known as the truss span. The collapse of one of the piers effectively doubled the truss span to the next support. This dramatic increase in span exerted a much larger force on the remaining truss structure. </p>
<p>While continuous truss systems are favoured because they can redistribute weight in the event of damage, in this case, the remaining truss elements couldn’t withstand all that extra force after the pier failed. </p>
<p>This resulted in the complete collapse of the truss section above the damaged
pier. The collapse didn’t stop there, however. Due to the interconnected nature of the trusses, the remaining section was initially pulled upwards. The sudden release of this tension created a powerful dynamic effect, ultimately causing the entire bridge to collapse.</p>
<h2>Rare event</h2>
<p>It’s certainly not unknown for ships to strike bridge supports. On May 9, 1980, <a href="https://www.fox13news.com/news/sunshine-skyway-bridge-francis-scott-key-baltimore-tampa-st-pete-florida-pinellas-hillsborough-collapse-boat-freighter">a strikingly similar event</a> took place when a freighter <a href="https://eu.jacksonville.com/picture-gallery/news/state/2019/05/08/photos-sunshine-skyway-bridge-disaster/809810007/">collided with a support pier of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge</a> in Tampa Bay, Florida. As a result, the bridge failed over a similar distance as the Baltimore collapse.</p>
<p>But while bridge designers are acutely aware of the potential for collisions, these are – at the same time – rather rare events. The impact forces on a support pier are also highly variable. A higher speed or heavier ship will significantly increase the force on the pier. And higher vessel traffic in the water boosts the probability of a collision.</p>
<p>In addition, the current method used in the US for calculating the collision force of a ship is based on <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.1201/b15621-9/vessel-collision-design-bridges-michael-knott-zolan-prucz">research conducted between 1967 and 1976</a>. However, a different method would have been used for the Key Bridge, which opened in 1977. Needless to say, vessels as heavy and fast as the Dali were not a common sight in 1977. </p>
<p>In fact, the collision force under some scenarios is likely to be <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/baltimores-366m-span-steel-truss-bridge-collapses-after-being-struck-by-container-ship-26-03-2024/">well beyond the capacity of bridge piers to withstand</a>. This is why bridges have other systems of protection, such as dolphins – a group of pilings situated in the water near a pier, which serve to deflect a vessel or take the energy out of a collision.</p>
<p>There isn’t any information about the system that was installed when the Key Bridge opened in 1977. And some observers have questioned whether the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-structure-support-pier.html">protective barriers around the Baltimore bridge were sufficient</a>.</p>
<p>Regular structural assessments and retrofits are crucial to ensure a bridge meets current safety standards. Concrete and steel, the primary materials in this bridge, are susceptible to deterioration from factors like corrosion and other environmental conditions. </p>
<p>In general, insufficient maintenance or inadequate retrofits can be contributing factors when bridges collapse. However, it must be said there is no evidence this was a factor in this case – and the Key Bridge <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326081517/https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-tuesday/index.html">was said to be “up to code”</a> when the disaster occurred. </p>
<p>There will be more detail to come on this dramatic and tragic event. And the findings will surely inform future approaches to the design and protection of bridges across busy waterways.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Mohamed Shaheen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ll need to learn the lessons from this disaster.Dr Mohamed Shaheen, Lecturer in Structural Engineering, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267812024-03-28T00:10:00Z2024-03-28T00:10:00ZBridges can be protected from ship collisions – an expert on structures in disasters explains how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584868/original/file-20240327-24-swqhqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2988%2C1965&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cargo ship hit the Sunshine Skyway Bridge over Florida's Tampa Bay in 1980, collapsing one span and killing 35 people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BridgeCollapses-List/8ccc0211108542268f8c2a39403265d7/photo">AP Photo/Jackie Green</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The MV Dali, a 984-foot, 100,000-ton cargo ship, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">rammed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> when leaving Baltimore harbor on March 26, 2024, causing a portion of the bridge to collapse.</em></p>
<p><em>In an interview, University of Michigan civil engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=764wTXMAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Sherif El-Tawil</a> explained how often ships collide with bridges, what can be done to protect bridges from collisions, and how a similar disaster in Florida in 1980 – just three years after the Key bridge opened – changed the way bridges are built.</em></p>
<p><strong>This is not the first time a ship has taken out a bridge. What’s the history of ship-bridge collisions?</strong></p>
<p>This is an extremely rare event. To my knowledge, there are about 40 or so recorded events in the past 65 years that involved similar type of damage to a bridge caused by a ship. So they seem to occur on average about once every one and a half to two years around the world. When you consider that there are millions of bridges around the world – and most of them cross waterways – you can imagine how rare this is.</p>
<p>The most influential case was the 1980 <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=20417">Sunshine Skyway Bridge collision</a> in Florida, which prompted the federal government to take action in terms of developing guidelines for designing bridges for ship collision. By the early 1990s the provisions were developed and incorporated into the bridge design code, the AASHTO specifications. The <a href="https://transportation.org/">American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials</a> produces the design code every bridge in the United States must conform to.</p>
<p><strong>What was different about the Sunshine Skyway Bridge disaster from previous bridge collisions?</strong></p>
<p>There were casualties. The fact that a crash could bring down a bridge, just like in the Baltimore situation, prompted the concern: Can we do something about it? And that something was those specifications that came out and eventually became incorporated in the national design document.</p>
<p>What those specifications say is that you either design the bridge for the impact force that a ship can deliver or you must protect the bridge against that impact force. So you must have a protective system. That’s why I was surprised that this bridge did not have a protective system, some type of barrier, around it. I have not examined the structural plans of this bridge. All I could see is the pictures that were published online, but protective systems would be very visible and recognizable if they were there.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BvWwKrgdjsI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Sunshine Skyway Bridge disaster in 1980 prompted improvements in bridge safety.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>What is currently mandated for new bridge construction, and is it sufficient to handle today’s massive cargo ships?</strong></p>
<p>I estimate, based on the published speed and weight of the MV Dali, that the impact force was in the range of 30 million pounds. This is a massive force, and you need a massive structure to withstand that kind of force. But it is doable if you have a huge pier. That might dictate the design of the bridge and what it could look like. Most likely it could not be a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/truss-bridge">truss bridge</a>. It may be a <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/engineering/civil/bridge7.htm">cable stay bridge</a> that has a very large tower that is capable of taking that load.</p>
<p>If you cannot design for that load, then you have to consider other alternatives. And that’s what the specifications say. They’re very clear about this. And those alternatives could be to build an island around the pier or a rock wall, or put dolphins – standalone structures set in the riverbed – adjacent to it, or put on fenders that absorb the energy so the ship doesn’t come in so fast. All of these are ways you can mitigate the impact.</p>
<p>Engineers design structures – and bridges are no exception – for a certain probability of failure, because if we didn’t, the cost would be prohibitive. Theoretically, you could build a structure that would never fail, but you’d have to put infinite money into it. For a critical bridge of this type, we would consider an acceptable chance for failure to be <a href="https://conference-service.com/pianc-panama/documents/agenda/data/full_papers/full_paper_46.pdf">1 in 10,000 years</a>.</p>
<p>Based on published information, I tried to compute what the probability of this event would be, and it turns out to be 1 in 100,000 years or so. The ship made a beeline directly to the pier that was vulnerable. It was just shocking to see such a rare event unfold. </p>
<p>The authority of the bridge must have considered protecting it, and the low probability of this occurring must have played a role in whether they would invest or not in protective measures. Because any type of construction in water or on water is very expensive.</p>
<p><strong>Is it feasible to protect older bridges?</strong></p>
<p>I think so. For some of them it might be lower tech like the island idea. And it could use maybe rocks or concrete components that would prevent the ship from reaching the pier at all. </p>
<p>It was a massive ship with a flared bow. The lower part of the ship, which extends beyond the bow, I believe struck the foundation system, but the bow reached the pier. The pier was like an A shape, so the bow snapped one side of the A. The other side could not support the weight of the bridge and so the whole thing collapsed. If somebody kicks your feet from underneath you, you’re just going to fall. That’s exactly what happened.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JebyNOvJmCM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Video captured the moment the Dali hit a pier of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>How many bridges are vulnerable to ship collisions?</strong></p>
<p>I don’t know the number, but I know that bridges that are in this category, that are long span, major bridges like this, are probably less than 0.1% of the bridges in the U.S. And some of them do not necessarily cross waterways, so that’s a subset that is an even lower percentage. So it’s a rare event occurring to a rare kind of bridge. </p>
<p><strong>Are cargo ships getting larger, and is that a consideration for protecting bridges?</strong></p>
<p>I expect so because there is an economy of scale. Bigger ships would be cheaper for transporting goods. But I cannot envision that the designer of this bridge 50 years ago or so would have thought that a ship this size could impact the bridge. I’m sure they would have taken steps to address that. It just didn’t cross their mind.</p>
<p>If this bridge had been designed to the current specifications, I believe it would have survived. There are two reasons a ship would deliver this kind of force: It’s moving too fast or it’s too heavy. And those two factors are taken into consideration in the impact force for which we design. So if we are taking those explicitly into consideration, then a bigger ship, yes, it’s a bigger force, and we would design for that. </p>
<p>But let’s go forward another 50 years and imagine you have a much larger ship that comes into being. At that time, bridges will have been designed for smaller ships, and you have the same problem all over again. It’s hard to predict how big these things will go. You can design for current ships, but as they evolve, it’s hard to predict many years into the future.</p>
<p><strong>Are there other takeaways from this disaster?</strong></p>
<p>The loss of this bridge, beyond the tragic loss of life, is going to be felt for many months if not years. It’s not a straightforward process to replace a bridge of this magnitude, of this span distance. It’s something that will require a lot of planning and a lot of resources to come back again to where we were before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sherif El-Tawil receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>A civil engineer explains why ships taking out bridges is rare, and describes how bridge builders protect the structures from ship collisions.Sherif El-Tawil, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267162024-03-27T03:59:18Z2024-03-27T03:59:18ZBaltimore bridge collapse: a bridge engineer explains what happened, and what needs to change<p>When the container ship MV Dali, 300 metres long and massing around 100,000 tonnes, lost power and slammed into one of the support piers of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_(Baltimore)">Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> in Baltimore, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">bridge collapsed in moments</a>. Six people are presumed dead, several others injured, and the city and region are expecting a months-long logistical nightmare in the absence of a crucial transport link.</p>
<p>It was a shocking event, not only for the public but for bridge engineers like me. We work very hard to ensure bridges are safe, and overall the probability of being injured or worse in a bridge collapse remains <a href="https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/10.1680/feng.13.00021">even lower</a> than the chance of being struck by lightning.</p>
<p>However, the images from Baltimore are a reminder that safety can’t be taken for granted. We need to remain vigilant. </p>
<p>So why did this bridge collapse? And, just as importantly, how might we make other bridges more safe against such collapse?</p>
<h2>A 20th century bridge meets a 21st century ship</h2>
<p>The Francis Scott Key Bridge was built through the mid 1970s and opened in 1977. The main structure over the navigation channel is a “continuous truss bridge” in three sections or spans.</p>
<p>The bridge rests on four supports, two of which sit each side of the navigable waterway. It is these two piers that are critical to protect against ship impacts.</p>
<p>And indeed, there were two layers of protection: a so-called “dolphin” structure made from concrete, and a fender. The dolphins are in the water about 100 metres upstream and downstream of the piers. They are intended to be sacrificed in the event of a wayward ship, absorbing its energy and being deformed in the process but keeping the ship from hitting the bridge itself.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of a bridge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584647/original/file-20240327-28-cm4rr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, showing the pier struck by the cargo ship and the sections of bridge which collapsed as a result.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse#/media/File:2024_Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse.svg">F Vasconcellos / Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fender is the last layer of protection. It is a structure made of timber and reinforced concrete placed around the main piers. Again, it is intended to absorb the energy of any impact.</p>
<p>Fenders are not intended to <a href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">absorb impacts from very large vessels</a>. And so when the MV Dali, weighing more than 100,000 tonnes, made it past the protective dolphins, it was simply far too massive for the fender to withstand.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ive-captained-ships-into-tight-ports-like-baltimore-and-this-is-how-captains-like-me-work-with-harbor-pilots-to-avoid-deadly-collisions-226700">I've captained ships into tight ports like Baltimore, and this is how captains like me work with harbor pilots to avoid deadly collisions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Video recordings show a cloud of dust appearing just before the bridge collapsed, which may well have been the fender disintegrating as it was crushed by the ship.</p>
<p>Once the massive ship had made it past both the dolphin and the fender, the pier – one of the bridge’s four main supports – was simply incapable of resisting the impact. Given the size of the vessel and its likely speed of around 8 knots (15 kilometres per hour), the impact force would have been <a href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">around 20,000 tonnes</a>.</p>
<h2>Bridges are getting safer</h2>
<p>This was not the first time a ship hit the Francis Scott Bridge. There was <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA135602.pdf">another collision in 1980</a>, damaging a fender badly enough that it had to be replaced. </p>
<p>Around the world, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/bridge-collapses-barges-list-1f2d6261d523ddc625aaaf3b32c626bc">35 major bridge collapses resulting in fatalities</a> were caused by collisions between 1960 and 2015, according to a 2018 report from the World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure. Collisions between ships and bridges in the 1970s and early 1980s led to a significant improvement in the design rules for protecting bridges from impact.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A greenish book cover with the title Ship Collision With Bridges." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584643/original/file-20240327-30-727593.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Guidelines like this have played a crucial role in improved bridge safety.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">IABSE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-73833-8">Further impacts</a> in the 1970s and early 1980s instigated significant improvements in the design rules for impact. </p>
<p>The International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering’s <a href="https://iabse.org/Sys/Store/Products/296602">Ship Collision with Bridges</a> guide, published in 1993, and the American Association of State Highway and Transporation Officials’ <a href="https://store.transportation.org/Item/PublicationDetail?ID=1346">Guide Specification and Commentary for Vessel Collision Design of Highway Bridges</a> (1991) changed how bridges were designed.</p>
<p>In Australia, the <a href="https://www.standards.org.au/standards-catalogue/standard-details?designation=as-5100-2-2017">Australian Standard for Bridge Design</a> (published in 2017) requires designers to think about the biggest vessel likely to come along in the next 100 years, and what would happen if it were heading for any bridge pier at full speed. Designers need to consider the result of both head-on collisions and side-on, glancing blows. As a result, many newer bridges protect their piers with entire human-made islands.</p>
<p>Of course, these improvements came too late to influence the design of the Francis Scott Key Bridge itself.</p>
<h2>Lessons from disaster</h2>
<p>So what are the lessons apparent at this early stage? </p>
<p>First, it’s clear the protection measures in place for this bridge were not enough to handle this ship impact. Today’s cargo ships are much bigger than those of the 1970s, and it seems likely the Francis Scott Key Bridge was not designed with a collision like this in mind.</p>
<p>So one lesson is that we need to consider how the vessels near our bridges are changing. This means we cannot just accept the structure as it was built, but ensure the protection measures around our bridges are evolving alongside the ships around them.</p>
<p>Second, and more generally, we must remain vigilant in managing our bridges. I’ve written <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-australian-bridges-safe-and-can-we-do-better-101825">previously</a> about the current level of safety of Australian bridges, but also about how we can do better. </p>
<p>This tragic event only emphasises the need to spend more on maintaining our ageing infrastructure. This is the only way to ensure it remains safe and functional for the demands we put on it today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226716/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Caprani receives funding from the Department of Transport (Victoria) and the Level Crossing Removal Project. He is also Chair of the Confidential Reporting Scheme for Safer Structures - Australasia, Chair of the Australian Regional Group of the Institution of Structural Engineers, and Australian National Delegate for the International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering.</span></em></p>Bridges are getting safer – but their designers need to keep up with the ever-growing size of cargo ships.Colin Caprani, Associate Professor, Civil Engineering, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237582024-02-26T17:19:23Z2024-02-26T17:19:23ZRed Sea crisis: with fears of a UK tea shortage, worries are brewing over other crucial commodities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577598/original/file-20240223-22-io12k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3408%2C2149&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-big-cup-tea-brewing-using-1854472879">Stockah/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>British people are known around the world for their love of tea. This is borne out by the statistics: a staggering <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/market-research-reports/tea-processing-industry/">50 billion cups of tea</a> are consumed on average in the UK every year.</p>
<p>Most of this tea is made using black tea leaves, most of which are not produced in the UK. Thus, shipping disruption caused by attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea, through which an estimated <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240119-red-sea-crisis-how-global-shipping-is-being-rerouted-out-of-danger">12% of global trade</a> passes each year, has <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/black-tea-shortage-2024-britain-supply-issues-w2rzxt9tv">sparked fears</a> of a national tea shortage.</p>
<p>The attacks, which are being carried out by the Yemeni Houthi rebel militant group in support of Hamas, have forced shipping companies to redirect around the southern tip of Africa – a journey that can take up to three weeks longer.</p>
<p>Two of the UK’s biggest suppliers of tea, Tetley and Yorkshire Tea, have announced that they are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68284391">monitoring</a> their supply chains closely for any potential disruptions. And customers have <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/tea-drinkers-warned-over-supply-issues-facing-supermarkets-b1138702.html">reported</a> reduced stocks of tea in supermarkets across the UK.</p>
<p>It is no surprise that tea is vulnerable to supply chain disruption. The <a href="https://www.steepedcontent.com/blogs/blog/tea-supply-chain">tea supply chain</a> is a complex global network, involving producers, processors, auctions and wholesalers, packers, distributors and retailers.</p>
<p>The UK imports primarily unprocessed tea from countries in <a href="https://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/tea-trouble-red-sea-attacks-impede-tetley-supplies-amid-shipping-disruptions.html">south Asia and east Africa</a>. This tea is then packaged and blended <a href="https://www.cbi.eu/sites/default/files/market-information/cbi_2016_-_tea_-_pfs_uk_-_final_draft_-_adjusted.pdf">within the UK</a> for both domestic and export markets. Only around 10% of the packaged tea sold in the UK is supplied by companies from overseas.</p>
<p>But tea is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-tea-supply-facing-disruption-red-sea-crisis-2024-02-13/">one of many items</a> to be caught up in the supply chain crisis. The disruption is affecting supplies across various other sectors too, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-red-sea-crisis-could-mean-for-the-electric-vehicle-industry-and-the-planet-221074">electric cars</a> and liquified natural gas – and it could prove costly.</p>
<p>The UK is particularly reliant on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-carbon-dioxide-shortage-still-hasnt-been-resolved-here-are-some-long-term-answers-176910">natural gas</a> for the production of carbon dioxide, a gas that is essential for everything from NHS operations to keeping food fresh while it is transported. </p>
<h2>Not so unpredictable</h2>
<p>The disruption caused by the Red Sea attacks is considered by some to have been an entirely unpredictable occurrence of what is known as a <a href="https://www.logupdateafrica.com/shipping/another-black-swan-event-red-sea-blues-for-supply-chains-1350712">“black swan”</a> event. But this crisis is the latest in a long line of shocks to global supply networks that have occurred over the past decade. </p>
<p>Whether it was the 2011 tsunami off the coast of Japan, Brexit, COVID, US trade sanctions on China, or the war in Ukraine, the fact of the matter is that supply chains are now experiencing disruption more often than they used to. </p>
<p>There are two reasons for this. First, organisations have become increasingly reliant on distant countries for the manufacturing and supply of routine and critical components. </p>
<p>Sometimes this decision is made because of the natural advantage these countries hold. For example, China currently <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/business/global/01minerals.html">accounts for 93%</a> of the global production of so-called rare earth elements, which are used in the components of many of the devices we use every day. But most of the time these decisions are driven by an organisation’s pursuit of lowering its cost of operation. </p>
<p>Second, a focus on just-in-time production, where businesses focus on producing precisely the amount they need and delivering it as close as possible to the time their customers need it, has reduced the buffer against supply chain shocks.</p>
<h2>Building resilient supply networks</h2>
<p>Organisations need to diversify their supply chains by developing alternate sources of supply. Many businesses already spread their source of materials over multiple suppliers across different regions to ensure quality, the continuity of supply, and to minimise costs.</p>
<p>For less complex components, such as packaging (cardboard, plastic bags and bubble wrap) or raw materials (metals and plastic), multiple sourcing is often practised through competitive tendering and reverse auctions; where the sellers bid for the prices at which they are willing to sell their goods and services. </p>
<p>However, for more complex products, the development of alternate sources of supply needs to be done strategically. One of the most important steps to improve supply chain resilience is to reduce reliance on global suppliers through processes called “onshoring”, “nearshoring” and “friendshoring”. </p>
<p>Onshoring is where components are sourced from suppliers located within domestic national borders. Nearshoring is a similar strategy where a company moves its supply to neighbouring countries. And <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/friendshoring-global-trade-buzzwords/">friendshoring</a> is where organisations transfer their production away from geopolitical rivals to friendlier countries. </p>
<p>The US, for example, has traditionally relied on Taiwan and South Korea for its <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/us-semiconductor-policy-looks-to-cut-out-china-secure-supply-chain.html">supply of semiconductors</a> (computer chips). But geopolitical tensions with China, coupled with a global shortage of semiconductors, have forced the US to look for suppliers in countries closer to home, while also exploring the potential of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/phoenix-microchip-plant-biden-union-tsmc">moving chip manufacturing</a> to the US.</p>
<p>Geographical and climate factors restrict the onshoring of tea cultivation to the UK. But these supply strategies could help businesses manage the risk of supply chain disruption to other, potentially more critical, commodities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large glass building under construction in a desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577617/original/file-20240223-22-675qmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577617/original/file-20240223-22-675qmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577617/original/file-20240223-22-675qmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577617/original/file-20240223-22-675qmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577617/original/file-20240223-22-675qmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577617/original/file-20240223-22-675qmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577617/original/file-20240223-22-675qmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taiwanese microchip manufacturer TSMC are building a plant in Phoenix, Arizona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/phoenix-arizona-march-08-2023-ongoing-2272666939">Around the World Photos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Making supply chains more agile</h2>
<p>The frequency with which global supply chains are now becoming disrupted means that organisations must rethink their supply chain strategies, evolving from being efficient and lean to flexible and agile. </p>
<p>An agile supply chain strategy will require businesses to maintain adequate inventory levels to guard against a situation where stock runs out. These inventory levels must be informed by real-time – or as close to real-time as possible – data on customer demand.</p>
<p>The disruption to the UK’s tea supply highlights the vulnerability of supplies of everyday essentials to unexpected events. But businesses can make sure they are better prepared for the occurrence of an unexpected event by enhancing the resilience of their supply chain through diversification and agility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jas Kalra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tea supplies are under threat as a shipping crisis continues in the Red Sea.Jas Kalra, Associate Professor of Operations & Project Management, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213922024-01-22T16:59:46Z2024-01-22T16:59:46ZWestern strikes against Houthis risk igniting a powderkeg in the Middle East<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/western-strikes-against-houthis-risk-igniting-a-powderkeg-in-the-middle-east" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The United States and the United Kingdom <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/us/politics/houthi-yemen-strikes.html">are launching ongoing missile and drone strikes</a> against the Yemeni armed group Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis. A faction in the ongoing Yemen civil war, the Houthis had been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/world/middleeast/houthi-hijack-ship-galaxy-leader.html">attacking ships</a> in the Red Sea in the months preceding the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-houthis-yemen-shipping-attacks-fc5c1ed40f4e370bed81670bfdda0899">U.S.-British strikes.</a></p>
<p>These kinds of strikes, however, don’t dissuade the Houthis, a predominately Shia minority group in Yemen. They’re continuing <a href="https://time.com/6563864/us-strikes-houthis-yemen-red-sea/">to attack ships in the region</a>.</p>
<p>Continuing to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen, furthermore, will undoubtedly escalate tensions in the Middle East. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67614911">The Houthis have said</a> they’re attacking ships affiliated with Israel in response to Israel’s ground invasion and blockade of the Gaza Strip.</p>
<p>With the U.S. reputation in the region already in tatters amid mass opposition to Israel’s attack on Gaza, these strikes are creating unintended consequences.</p>
<h2>Yemen’s civil war</h2>
<p>The Yemen civil war is one of the world’s most protracted conflicts. It officially started in 2014 when the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-29380668">Houthis seized the capital of Sana'a</a>, but multiple entities have become involved since then.</p>
<p>Most notably, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the conflict and subsequent blockade <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/middleeast/yemen-famine-saudi-fuel-intl/index.html">helped create ongoing famine and food insecurity</a> in Yemen.</p>
<p>Since the outset of Yemen’s civil war, the Houthis have received Iranian support. For both ideological and geopolitical reasons, Iran has helped the Houthis in their efforts to seize the country. While Iran has continually denied claims that it <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/21/iran-giving-houthis-significant-and-lethal-support-us-envoy">provides military aid</a> to the Houthis, most <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/22/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#iran-has-helped-the-houthi-militia-target-ships-us-intelligence-says">outside observers</a> agree that it has done so in the past and continues to now.</p>
<p>The Houthis are invaluable partners to Iran because of their position along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow channel is responsible for a significant portion of the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/bab-al-mandan-red-sea-suez-shipping-crisis-houthis-gaza">world’s cargo</a> <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41073">and oil</a> shipping. While most vessels can avoid the region by sailing around Africa, this detour <a href="https://time.com/6553141/red-sea-houthi-attacks-consumer-prices-cost/">increases costs</a> for shipowners and, by extension, consumers.</p>
<p>The Houthis, either acting in their own interests or for Iran, escalated their attacks against ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Israel’s attack on Gaza. Outside of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-houthi-rebels-hijacked-ship-red-sea-dc9b6448690bcf5c70a0baf7c7c34b09">one cargo ship</a> the Houthi seized in November, however, their attacks have been <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/first-images-released-houthi-damage-153119479.html">largely unsuccessful</a>.</p>
<h2>More time needed for anti-piracy efforts</h2>
<p>Piracy in maritime shipping is not a new phenomenon <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv21r3j8m">and has been a persistent scourge throughout human history</a>. In contemporary history, however, multilateral efforts to combat piracy have been largely successful in limiting its impact. </p>
<p>Multinational efforts off the <a href="https://theconversation.com/somali-piracy-once-an-unsolvable-security-threat-has-almost-completely-stopped-heres-why-213872">coast of Somalia</a> and in the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20171107012031/http://maritimesecurity.asia/free-2/piracy-2/drastic-drop-in-piracy-in-malacca-straits/">Malacca Strait</a> in southeast Asia significantly reduced the piracy threat in those regions.</p>
<p>Given the past success of such measures, American Defense Secretary <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/19/1220216698/pentagon-announces-new-international-maritime-protection-force-for-the-red-sea">Lloyd Austin’s announcement in late December</a> of an international maritime task force was both practical and had the potential to solve the issue. The problem, however, is that such efforts take time to succeed. The U.S. didn’t give the initiative the time it needed.</p>
<p>U.S.-led strikes against the Houthis in Yemen only stood a chance of success if neighbouring states, most notably Saudi Arabia, combined the American air presence with a ground threat. Saudi Arabia, however, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/16/saudi-arabia-red-sea-conflict-houthis-us-strike/">won’t get involved</a> as it seeks to extricate itself from Yemen.</p>
<p>Given the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-13/saudi-arabia-puts-israel-deal-on-ice-amid-war-engages-with-iran-sources-say">anger towards</a> Israelis in the region, as well as the Houthi’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/how-houthi-anger-with-israel-is-reshaping-the-middle-east-conflict?ref=mc.news">avowed goal</a> to strike Israel, countering the Houthi would be politically dangerous for Riyadh’s government.</p>
<p>The Houthis know the Americans lack regional allies and therefore they’ve not been deterred, but emboldened. In the aftermath of the U.S.-U.K. strikes, Houthis have vowed to continue <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/yemen-red-sea-houthis-1.7083030">to target ships</a> in the Red Sea and are making good on the threat.</p>
<p>U.S. President Joe Biden has even been forced to admit that the <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/us-again-targets-yemen-s-huthis-in-new-strikes-9cac37d1">ongoing airstrikes</a> <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/18/politics/biden-houthi-strikes/index.html">are not having the desired effect</a> of deterring the Houthis, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-yemens-houthi-as-conflict-escalates">but says they’re necessary to protect merchant and military vessels</a>.</p>
<h2>Blowback in the broader region</h2>
<p>International norms and laws are effective so long as everyone adheres to them. Norms and laws, furthermore, are most vulnerable immediately after a state has breached them, which the U.S. did when it <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/iran-says-us-british-attacks-on-yemen-a-clear-violation-of-the-countrys-sovereignty/ar-AA1mQIsa">violated Yemen’s sovereignty</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-moral-credibility-is-dying-along-with-thousands-of-gaza-citizens-220449">Western moral credibility is dying along with thousands of Gaza citizens</a>
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<p>Nowhere is this more evident than in Iran’s actions in the aftermath of the strikes against the Houthis.</p>
<p>Because the Houthis are a key partner of Iran, Tehran’s government apparently believed it had to take action in case their credibility became compromised. Iran <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/iran-strikes-targets-in-northern-iraq-and-syria-as-regional-tensions-escalate/ar-AA1n1xOP">conducted strikes</a> against targets in Iraq and Syria. Iran claims the strikes in Iraq were against an Israeli spy installation. </p>
<p>While these events <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/16/iran-claims-it-has-attacked-an-israeli-spy-base-in-kurdistan">would have been troubling in their own right in terms of the impact on regional stability</a>, Iran followed up these strikes with ones in Pakistan, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/world/asia/pakistan-iran-strike.html">Pakistan retaliated</a>.</p>
<p>Fortunately, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67999465">both Iran</a> <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pakistan-conducts-strikes-in-iran-retaliating-for-earlier-hit-by-tehran/ar-AA1n9O2J">and Pakistan</a> are emphasizing that they’re not targeting the other country, but rather <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/paistan-cnucstrike-in-iran-in-retaliation-to-drone-and-missile-strikes-hits-baloch-separatist-groups/ar-AA1n9AwW">non-state militants</a>.</p>
<p>That said, Iran’s strike against Pakistan occurs as the country is <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/06/01/imran-khan-loses-his-battle-with-pakistans-army">politically vulnerable</a> in the aftermath of the army’s takedown of Prime Minister Imran Khan. With the Pakistani military unable to appear weak as the country faces crucial elections next month, the potential for events to escalate are very real.</p>
<p>Since the outset of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, the goal of nearly everyone involved, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/us-israel.html">particularly the U.S.</a>, has been to prevent the conflict from escalating regionally. Recent events are compromising this goal, including <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-blames-israel-for-strike-that-killed-four-senior-military-officials-in-syria-as-mid-east-conflict-spirals/ar-BB1gZPbm">strikes by Israel in Syria</a> and an Iranian-backed militia’s <a href="https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/21/us-troops-iraq-getting-evaluated-traumatic-brain-injuries-after-iran-backed-militia-attack.html">missile-and-rocket</a> attack against U.S. forces in Iraq.</p>
<p>By abandoning the focus on building a maritime coalition force and instead resorting to air strikes, the U.S. and its allies may have inadvertently created the situation they sought to avoid.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since the outset of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, the West has aimed to prevent the conflict from escalating regionally. But strikes on the Houthis in Yemen by the U.S. and the U.K. may ensure it will.James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215882024-01-22T03:06:05Z2024-01-22T03:06:05ZWhy US strikes will only embolden the Houthis, not stop their attacks on ships in the Red Sea<p>As the Houthi militant group in Yemen ramps up its attacks on vessels in the Red Sea – ostensibly in response to what it calls Israel’s “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/19/houthi-shipping-red-sea-oil-alliance/">genocidal crimes</a>” in Gaza – the US and UK have responded with multiple <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-carries-new-airstrike-houthis-yemen/story?id=106414037">military strikes</a> in the last week. The US has also re-listed the group as a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-redesignates-houthis-terrorist-group-means/story?id=106451725">global terrorist organisation</a>.</p>
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<p>The hope is these strikes will pressure the Iran-aligned Houthis to back down. It won’t, however. Short of a complete halt to Israel’s war in Gaza and a 180-degree shift in Western support for Israel’s approach, there is little that will dissuade the Houthis to change course in the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>There are three main reasons for this, none of which are principally about Iran’s regional strategy.</p>
<h2>The group has already survived years of airstrikes</h2>
<p>The first, and most obvious, reason is the Houthi movement, whose political wing is known as <a href="https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20200617_acaps_yemen_analysis_hub_the_houthi_supervisory_system_0.pdf">Ansar Allah</a>, has already withstood years of airstrikes in its war with a Saudi-led and Western-backed coalition from 2015–2022. </p>
<p>Prior to this, the Houthis fought six wars against the central Yemeni government from 2004–2010. Guerrilla warfare is not new to them, and harassing ships off their coast does not require sophisticated weapons.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/torture-slow-motion-economic-blockade-yemen-and-its-grave-humanitarian-consequences">blockade</a> that accompanied much of the recent war (which is currently in a shaky truce) also helped the Houthis to finetune their <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03071847.2022.2148557">weapon smuggling networks</a> from Iran, as well as their own <a href="https://www.conflictarm.com/dispatches/evolution-of-uavs-employed-by-houthi-forces-in-yemen/">domestic</a> <a href="https://www.conflictarm.com/perspectives/iranian-technology-transfers-to-yemen/">weapon production</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, airstrikes alone are unlikely to deliver a knockout blow to their military capacity and will almost certainly increase their appetite for a fight.</p>
<p>That is because they can – for the first time – more strongly frame their actions in the context of fighting against the US and Israel, per their <a href="https://waleedmahdi.com/echoes-of-a-scream/">slogan</a>: “God is Great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-yemens-houthis-are-getting-involved-in-the-israel-hamas-war-and-how-it-could-disrupt-global-shipping-219220">Why Yemen's Houthis are getting involved in the Israel-Hamas war and how it could disrupt global shipping</a>
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<h2>With dissent rising, the Houthis have found ‘quasi-legitimacy’</h2>
<p>The second reason they are unlikely to be deterred is more important, but less understood, because it is about Yemen’s domestic politics. </p>
<p>The Houthis currently control much of Yemen, including the capital Sana'a, which accounts for around 70% of the population. The people in these regions have been subjected to years of acute and structural violence by the Houthis. This includes: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>the forced disappearances of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/09/15/yemen-houthis-disappear-political-opponent">political opponents</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/05/30/yemen-houthis-forcibly-disappear-bahais">religious minorities</a> </p></li>
<li><p>the extrajudicial killings of <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/poisoned-yemeni-journalist-was-investigating-houthi-owned-companies">journalists</a> and executions of civilians, including <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58630071">minors</a> </p></li>
<li><p>the recruitment of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2017/02/yemen-huthi-forces-recruiting-child-soldiers-for-front-line-combat/">child soldiers</a> </p></li>
<li><p>withholding public sector <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/dilemma-public-sector-salary-payments-yemen">salaries</a> since 2016 </p></li>
<li><p>the laying of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/22/yemen-houthi-landmines-kill-civilians-block-aid">landmines</a> in populated areas, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2023/06/21/1183192685/yemeni-civil-war-frontline-photos">sniper attacks</a> on civilians and the use of <a href="https://www.saferworld-global.org/multimedia/a-city-under-siege-the-realities-of-yemenas-war-in-taiz">siege warfare</a> </p></li>
<li><p>the systematic <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/final-report-panel-experts-yemen-established-pursuant-security-council-resolution-2140-2014s2023130-enar">extortion</a> of businesses and implementation of a <a href="https://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/11628">caste-based</a> taxation system</p></li>
<li><p>the implementation of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/yemen-huthis-suffocating-women-with-requirement-for-male-guardians/">male guardianship</a> rules for women </p></li>
<li><p>and the weaponisation of <a href="https://www.mwatana.org/reports-en/starvation-makers-e">food</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2023/12/11/death-more-merciful-life/houthi-and-yemeni-government-violations-right-water">water</a>, including the diversion of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jan/02/aid-officials-aware-for-months-of-widespread-food-aid-theft-in-yemen">food aid</a> for private enrichment. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>It is important to note the Saudi-led coalition and internationally recognised Yemeni government have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/25/yemen-war-victims-stories-they-robbed-me-of-my-children">also</a> been accused of committing <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/18/yemen-latest-round-saudi-uae-led-attacks-targets-civilians">war crimes</a> and grave human rights <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/yemen/report-yemen/">violations</a> in Yemen, including the <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/wpf/files/2018/10/Strategies-of-Coalition-in-Yemen-War-Final-20181005-1.pdf">ruthless bombardment</a> of civilians and civilian infrastructure. </p>
<p>At least <a href="https://acleddata.com/middle-east/yemen/">150,000</a> people are estimated to have died violently in the war that began in 2015, though the challenges with collecting such <a href="https://sanaacenter.org/reports/humanitarian-aid/15353">data</a> are considerable. This also does not include the many more thousands that have died from <a href="https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/yemen-acute-hunger-unprecedented-levels-funding-dries">preventable starvation</a> and disease. </p>
<p>The behaviour of the Houthis in power has made them deeply unpopular. Dissent is dangerous due to the sophisticated <a href="https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20200617_acaps_yemen_analysis_hub_the_houthi_supervisory_system_0.pdf">system</a> of repression and neighbourhood <a href="https://almashareq.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_am/features/2022/07/07/feature-02">surveillance</a> the Houthis have imposed in the areas they control. But Yemenis began taking to the street in protest last year anyway in <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2275026/middle-east">Ibb</a> and the besieged city of <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2338366/middle-east">Ta’izz</a>.</p>
<p>Then on September 26, just before Hamas’ assault on southern Israel and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, Yemenis defied the authorities in large numbers. </p>
<p>In protests in the capital city of Sana'a, they celebrated the anniversary of the 1962 revolution that ousted the country’s leader, the Zaydi Imam, Mohammed al-Badr – and with him, the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362540450_The_Religious-Political_Ideology_of_Houthis'_Rebellion_in_Yemen_Theoretical_Perspective_of_the_Divine_Right_to_Rule">kinship-based</a> autocracy that <a href="https://www.leidenarabichumanitiesblog.nl/articles/a-stray-bullet-from-the-seventh-century-hit-yemen-anti-zaydi-polemics-and-the-politics-of-genealogy-in-al-ghobaris-al-qab%25C4%25ABlah-al-h%25C4%2581shimiyyah">many Yemenis</a> claim the Houthis <a href="https://www.commonspace.eu/analysis/analysis-origins-houthi-supremacist-ideology">seek</a> to <a href="https://sanaacenter.org/the-yemen-review/june-2022/18144">reinstate</a>. </p>
<p>Seeing this (rightly) as a demonstration against them, the Houthis were shaken. <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/09/yemen-wave-of-arrests-by-huthi-de-facto-authorities-following-demonstrations/">Amnesty International</a> reported they responded with an “alarming wave of arrests” and “a draconian show of force.”</p>
<p>Against a background of rising dissent at home, the Houthis’ actions and Western retaliation have given the group the gift of “<a href="https://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/21726">quasi-legitimacy</a>,” according to Yemeni analysts. The US-led strikes also give credence to the Houthis’ demands that critics “<a href="https://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/21726">shut their mouths</a>.” </p>
<p>And just as important, the US strikes can boost the Houthis’ military recruitment efforts. And this could help them attempt to seize the government-held oil wells in <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/84588">Marib</a> again, which the group needs to become economically sustainable.</p>
<h2>Anger is rising against the West across the region</h2>
<p>The third reason the Houthis are unlikely to be deterred by airstrikes or a terrorist designation is that their actions articulate the wider region’s fury at Israel’s war in Gaza, which has so far claimed the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/gazas-death-toll-just-passed-25-000-for-the-survivors-hunger-is-the-biggest-threat/kjx1e3r65">lives of 25,000 Palestinians</a>, and the decades of Western support for Israel’s policies in occupied Gaza and the West Bank.</p>
<p>They have also tapped into profound grievances about the West’s policies more generally and its record of reinforcing unpopular regimes in the face of popular action for <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/17/betrayed-by-their-leaders-failed-by-the-west-arabs-still-want-democracy/">change</a>. This includes the selling of <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429317873-46/violence-david-wearing">weapons</a> and bestowing of political legitimacy to authoritarian regimes in exchange for what the West considers “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/2981/chapter-abstract/143677536?redirectedFrom=fulltext">stability</a>” in the world order. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-houthis-four-things-you-will-want-to-know-about-the-yemeni-militia-targeted-by-uk-and-us-military-strikes-221040">The Houthis: four things you will want to know about the Yemeni militia targeted by UK and US military strikes</a>
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<p>Yemenis are, however, keenly aware that the Houthis’ rise and expansion was enabled by this same external push for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/10/us-backs-yemen-immunity-for-saleh">stability</a>, which came at the expense of Yemenis’ ability to determine <a href="https://merip.org/2014/12/the-breakdown-of-the-gcc-initiative/">local solutions</a> to <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/yemens-peace-process-hodeida-agreement-never-was">local problems</a>.</p>
<p>By centring the defence of Palestinians in their actions, the Houthis have found a way to discredit their domestic opponents – something that has largely eluded them for 20 years. This will make them even harder to dislodge from power and will likely consign ordinary Yemenis to further violence at their hands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah G. Phillips receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Non-Resident Fellow with the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies (Yemen).</span></em></p>The Houthis have found legitimacy through their actions, which will make them even harder to dislodge from power.Sarah G. Phillips, Professor of Global Conflict and Development at The University of Sydney; Non-Resident Fellow at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210582024-01-19T13:03:19Z2024-01-19T13:03:19ZRed Sea shipping disruptions could be avoided in the future by using the Arctic – but it could spell trouble for fragile ecosystems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569909/original/file-20240117-27-cvnsia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=245%2C491%2C5127%2C3145&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/container-cargo-ship-on-icy-waters-752977432">Jean Landry/sHUTTERSTOCK</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Attacks by Yemeni <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2e918f9f-bcb4-47e2-9c15-c70a2a8ade5f">Houthi rebels</a> on merchant ships in the Red Sea have hit world trade. Between November and December 2023, the number of containers travelling through the Red Sea each day <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/11/global-trade-falls-houthi-attacks-merchant-ships-red-sea">fell by 60%</a> as ships moving goods between Asia and Europe diverted their routes around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.</p>
<p>This route results in at least <a href="https://classic.searoutes.com/">ten days more</a> sailing time, so has caused freight <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-yemen-houthis-attack-ships-f67d941c260528ac40315ecab4c34ca3">prices to surge</a> and has triggered costly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/tesla-to-halt-production-at-german-car-factory-as-red-sea-conflict-hits-supply-chains-3735e991#">delays to production</a>. The region has become a bottleneck for the global economy before. The Suez canal, a waterway that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, was blocked for six days in 2021 after a container ship called the Ever Given ran aground, disrupting <a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_03_26_SupplyChainDisruption.html">billions of dollars</a> worth of trade.</p>
<p>The cape route has been used each time passage through Suez has been disrupted. But there is an alternative sea passage between Asia and Europe – the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920922002589">Northern Sea</a> route. </p>
<p>This route, which runs from the Barents Sea near Russia’s border with Norway, to the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska, may be a better option and will soon become available if <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213">global warming continues</a> at the predicted rate. Nevertheless, it currently faces many challenges.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-red-sea-attacks-on-cargo-ships-could-disrupt-deliveries-and-push-up-prices-a-logistics-expert-explains-220110">How Red Sea attacks on cargo ships could disrupt deliveries and push up prices – a logistics expert explains</a>
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<h2>An alternative for world trade?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/arctic-summer-sea-ice-could-be-gone-by-2035">Research</a> estimates that summer sea ice around the Siberian coast will be melted completely by 2035. Even if ice cover is not completely removed, the thickness of the sea ice – one of the initial barriers to Arctic shipping – has <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03088839.2016.1231428">significantly reduced</a> over the past four decades from 3.64 metres to 1.89 metres. Arctic navigation is thus expected to be viable by the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21004966">beginning of the next decade</a>.</p>
<p>For shipments between Shanghai and Rotterdam, the Northern Sea route reduces the distance that ships will need to travel by around <a href="https://services-webdav.cbs.dk/doc/CBS.dk/Arctic%20Shipping%20-%20Commercial%20Opportunities%20and%20Challenges.pdf">3,000 nautical miles</a> compared to Suez and <a href="https://sea-distances.org/">6,200 miles</a> compared to the cape route. This would <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S096669231100024X">reduce</a> the amount of time if takes to sail between eastern Asia and northern Europe to 18 days (it currently takes 32 days via Suez). </p>
<p>Arctic navigation is also performed at very slow speeds – <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/The-guide-to-slow-steaming-on-ships.pdf">under 18 knots</a> (roughly 21mph). So, depending on sailing speed and the type of fuel used, a cargo ship that passes through the Northern Sea route could use <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X16000038">40% less fuel</a> and generate up to 80% fewer emissions than if it used the Suez route.</p>
<h2>But is it viable?</h2>
<p>Despite its advantages, Arctic navigation is highly seasonal, restricted to the months between <a href="https://www.ocimf.org/document-libary/94-northern-sea-route-navigation-best-practices-and-challenges-1/file">July and November</a>. Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route also requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship. But the number of icebreakers is limited. Just <a href="https://chnl.no/maps/nsr-shipping-traffic-activities-in-may-2022/">five</a> operated on the Northern Sea route in 2021, rising to <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-launches-new-nuclear-icebreaker-it-looks-east-northern-sea-route-shipping">nine</a> by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A photo taken onboard an icebreaker ship going through an ice field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/icebreaker-going-through-ice-fields-arctic-725163385">Katrin York/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>The Northern Sea route also suffers capacity issues. So-called “mega-vessels” that have a capacity of around 20,000 containers are deployed for trade between Asia and Europe. However, the Northern Sea route is not able to accommodate mega-vessels due to the imposition of restrictions based on the depth of sea ice. </p>
<p>Nowadays, only vessels with a roughly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569121001150">5,000 container carrying capacity</a> can easily navigate through the North Sea route during the summer.</p>
<h2>Fragile Arctic ecosystems</h2>
<p>Cargo ships that pass through the Northern Sea route would potentially generate <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920923002936">fewer carbon emissions</a> than ships that travel through Suez. But this alternative route is subject to other environmental challenges. </p>
<p>Arctic ecosystems take a long time to recover from disturbances like oil spills. Accidents in these sensitive regions may thus cause unimaginable marine pollution. </p>
<p>In 1989, for example, the <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/maritime-history/the-complete-story-of-the-exxon-valdez-oil-spill/">Exxon Valdez</a> oil tanker ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling more than <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/who-we-are/technology-and-collaborations/energy-technologies/risk-management-and-safety/the-valdez-oil-spill">250,000 barrels</a> of oil into the sea. The oil spill <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/oil-spills-30-years-after-exxon-valdez">killed</a> billions of salmon and more than 300,000 animals from a variety of fish and bird species. </p>
<p>More than 25 years since the spill, four of these species (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/killer-whale">killer whales</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=kittlitzmurrelet.main">Kittlitz’s murrelets</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=marbledmurrelet.main">marbled murrelets</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/pigeon-guillemot">pigeon guillemots</a>) have not been re-encountered in the region.</p>
<p>Many cargo ships also carry ballast water to maintain stability during various stages of their operation. Ballast water is taken on or discharged throughout the ship’s journey. This practice could potentially result in the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/18366503.2015.1093695">migration of invasive species</a> to the unique Arctic ecosystem.</p>
<h2>Routes are changing</h2>
<p>Despite these challenges, Arctic shipping traffic is increasing. Between 2013 and 2017, the volume of cargo traffic on the Northern Sea route <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">rose</a> from 2.8 million tons to 10.7 million tons. </p>
<p>In 2023, this had grown to <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">36.2 million tons</a>. And it shows no signs of slowing down. In 2024, Russia’s icebreaker fleet expects to conduct <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">1,747 escorts</a> (up from <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">1,218</a> in 2023).</p>
<p>The Northern Sea route is currently not able to accommodate the vessel traffic and amount of cargo that passes through the Suez Canal. But it could be a viable alternative in the future depending on how fast progress is made on tackling global warming and developing a regulatory framework for navigating the Arctic region.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gokcay Balci receives funding from the British Academy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kemal Akbayirli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have disrupted trade between Asia and Europe – could ships cross the Arctic instead?Kemal Akbayirli, Research Assistant in Maritime Business and Administration, Ordu UniversityGokcay Balci, Assistant Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210742024-01-17T14:15:57Z2024-01-17T14:15:57ZWhat the Red Sea crisis could mean for the electric vehicle industry and the planet<p>Automotive giants <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/tesla-to-halt-production-at-german-car-factory-as-red-sea-conflict-hits-supply-chains-3735e991#">Tesla</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-berlin-suspend-most-production-two-weeks-over-red-sea-supply-gap-2024-01-11/">Volvo</a> have announced pauses to the production of their electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe. Electric vehicles are seeing <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-model-y-was-the-best-selling-car-worldwide-in-the-first-quarter-154909234.html">record sales and demand worldwide</a>, but a lack of parts means that factories cannot sustain their production.</p>
<p>The reasons for this are complex. Parts are taking longer to deliver as attacks by Houthi rebels force ships to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/electrolux-readies-alternative-routes-after-red-sea-attacks-2023-12-19/">avoid the Red Sea</a>. And there are also issues around the monopoly that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/nov/25/battery-arms-race-how-china-has-monopolised-the-electric-vehicle-industry">Chinese factories</a> hold on many EV components, including crucial lithium batteries.</p>
<p>These factors have made it harder (and more expensive) to move parts across the globe to support EV production in Europe.</p>
<p>Modern global supply chains are tightly orchestrated. Moving goods to factories (and away from them to customers) is heavily demand driven. Forecasting this demand has become a huge industry, valued at <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/supply-chain-management-market-size-to-grow-usd-75-6-billion-by-2032-at-a-cagr-of-10-9--valuates-reports-301806938.html">over US$27 billion</a> (£21.3 billion).</p>
<p>But even with all this intelligence, political tensions, pandemics and even <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ever-given-container-ship-set-leave-suez-canal-2021-07-07/">stuck ships</a> can turn this industry on its head overnight. This is particularly the case where the supply side is constrained, as it is with EV batteries from China. </p>
<p>In 2021, a container ship called the Ever Given <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ever-given-container-ship-set-leave-suez-canal-2021-07-07/">ran aground</a> in the Suez Canal, blocking this vital shipping route from the far east to Europe for the best part of a week. The blockage prevented goods from passing through the canal, so had the knock-on effect of raising container shipping prices. </p>
<p>Even though the Suez canal has been open for two years, the recent attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have caused shipping companies to divert their ships to less direct routes – adding significant costs and time. </p>
<p>What does this mean for consumers and the planet? And are there ways for EV manufacturers to circumvent these risks?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A container ship heading up the Red sea towards the Suez Canal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569785/original/file-20240117-29-509uce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569785/original/file-20240117-29-509uce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569785/original/file-20240117-29-509uce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569785/original/file-20240117-29-509uce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569785/original/file-20240117-29-509uce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569785/original/file-20240117-29-509uce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569785/original/file-20240117-29-509uce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Houthis have carried out multiple attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/egypt-red-sea-oct-3-2023-2374214059">David G40/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Supply chains are fickle things</h2>
<p>If manufacturers cannot produce due to shortages, then factories that make a single product such as Tesla’s gigafactory near Berlin (which produces the best-selling Model Y SUV) have one option – to idle the lines. Hourly-paid workers are sent home and where possible, salaried staff will continue in other roles such as safety checking and testing. </p>
<p>Tesla and Volvo <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/manufacturing">have other factories</a> and other product lines that can keep running. But even finished vehicles travelling from plants in China for sale in Europe are affected by the need to avoid the Red Sea. Vehicle manufacturer, Geely, who also produce <a href="https://www.wsp.com/en-gb/projects/geely-and-volvo-cars-manufacturing-plant">Volvo vehicles in China</a>, has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-geely-warns-red-sea-attacks-delay-europe-bound-ev-shipments-2023-12-22/">warned of delays</a> to European consumers expecting their new cars in early 2024. </p>
<p>Delays are not the only issue associated with shipping parts and vehicles around Africa to avoid the Red Sea. The 3,000 extra miles travelled by ships means they burn more fuel – a lot more fuel. </p>
<p>Peter Sand, a shipping analyst at ocean and air freight analytics platform, Xeneta, has estimated conservatively that each ship taking this route <a href="https://theloadstar.com/emissions-expected-to-increase-as-box-ships-re-route-and-burn-more-fuel/#:%7E:text=The%20route%20will%20add%20some,each%20tonne%20of%20fuel%20burned.">produces 2,700 extra tons of CO₂</a>. If the international shipping industry were a country, it would already be among the world’s top carbon-emitting nations. And <a href="https://www.shipmap.org/">greenhouse gas emissions from ships</a> are projected to increase by <a href="https://www.edfeurope.org/shipping">up to 50% by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>EVs are undoubtedly better for the environment than their combustion engine counterparts. However, when supply is constrained, buyers often have little choice but to delay making the switch. Sales <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67017972">figures</a> from 2023 show that private buyers still did not purchase as many EVs in the historically buoyant month of September as they did in the year before due to uncertainty in the market. </p>
<p>Fleet demand remains strong. But the market can only grow as fast as manufacturers can make cars. And pausing production is not going to help the transition. </p>
<h2>Can manufacturers square this circle?</h2>
<p>Clearly, these pinch points in the global supply chain have huge repercussions for manufacturers and consumers. Tesla’s factory in Germany is tight-lipped about actual production figures, but <a href="https://electrek.co/2023/08/23/tesla-gigafactory-berlin-production-has-been-dipping-report/">reports</a> claim it makes around 4,000 units per week. Each car makes around US$8,000 profit, so this shut down could, in raw terms, lead to a loss of US$64 million in profit. </p>
<p>How do they prevent this? Supply chains do have some element of elasticity, but supply chain managers are always keen to reduce the potential of something known as the “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925527304003524">bullwhip effect</a>”. This is where marked differences in order quantities lead to even more shortages down the line. Managing expectations and reassuring buyers will thus help to smooth any issues with supply. </p>
<p>Making supply chains more resilient is also a huge <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mohamad-Heidari-6/publication/374145196_Applying_Resiliency_in_Predicting_Demand_for_the_Automotive_Supply_Chain/links/6510142ad5293c106cdf0876/Applying-Resiliency-in-Predicting-Demand-for-the-Automotive-Supply-Chain.pdf">area of research</a>. Rerouting ships to prevent lost components is an example of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supply-chain-resilience">this concept</a> being put into practice. </p>
<p>If the parts were lost to rebel forces or pirates by taking the Red Sea route, then the revenue loss would be even larger. So although diverting routes is worse for the planet and arguably bad press, it would seem to be the lesser of two evils.</p>
<p>Multinational automotive manufacturer Stellantis has announced that it is instead bypassing the Red Sea by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-turning-airfreight-compensate-temporary-red-sea-disruptions-2024-01-12/">air-freighting parts</a> to its EU factories. But, while this is faster than shipping parts around Africa, it’s not good for either CO₂ emissions or cost.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A freight airplane flying above shipping containers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569789/original/file-20240117-23-46klno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569789/original/file-20240117-23-46klno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569789/original/file-20240117-23-46klno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569789/original/file-20240117-23-46klno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569789/original/file-20240117-23-46klno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569789/original/file-20240117-23-46klno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569789/original/file-20240117-23-46klno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stellantis is relying on airfreight to cope with temporary supply disruptions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/freight-airplane-flying-above-overseas-shipping-2041371503">Summit Art Creations/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Keeping the global economy running</h2>
<p>To reduce the disruptive potential of geopolitical tensions, Tesla and other automakers are attempting to produce their product closer to the consumer. The strategy is to put factories on each continent or geographical area where their products are sold. </p>
<p>However, as China still produces many of the core EV parts, manufacturers will have to invest heavily in their suppliers and put them closer to their factories.</p>
<p>Ultimately, this will require investment in skills and more factories. But with dropping profit margins, Chinese manufacturing dominance and inflationary pressures, it will continue to be a headache to implement.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Stacey receives funding from the European Union for the ENE and SENE projects. </span></em></p>EV manufacturers pause production in Europe as the Red Sea shipping crisis deepens.Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209512024-01-13T10:20:36Z2024-01-13T10:20:36ZRed Sea crisis: expert unpacks Houthi attacks and other security threats<p><em><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67938290">Recent attacks</a> on commercial vessels by Houthi militia in the Red Sea have put the vital shipping region in the spotlight. The Yemen-based rebels <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67932725">claim to be</a> targeting Israeli-linked vessels, in protest at Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. The UN Security Council recently <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/middleeast/un-security-council-houthi-attacks-resolution-intl-hnk/index.html#:%7E:text=The%20UN%20resolution%20condemned%20some,the%20commercial%20vessel%2C%20Galaxy%20Leader.">passed a resolution</a> demanding an immediate end to the Houthi attacks, while the US and UK <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/us-and-uk-launch-strikes-against-houthi-rebels-in-yemen#:%7E:text=The%20United%20States%20and%20Britain,of%20conflict%20in%20the%20region.">have launched a series of strikes on Yemen against the rebels</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Burak Şakir Şeker, who <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371719209_Security_Environment_of_The_Red_Sea">has studied security issues in the Red Sea</a>, shares his insights on the global importance of the region, the security issues that exist and how these must be addressed.</em></p>
<h2>Why is the Red Sea such an important international area?</h2>
<p>The Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen, in the Middle East, and Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, is one of the world’s busiest oil transit points and is of great importance for the Red Sea. It’s a historically important trade transit route. Its proximity to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf reduces shipping distances and facilitates trade. About <a href="https://dg.dryadglobal.com/red-sea">33,000</a> merchant ships pass through the strait every year. </p>
<p>Because of its strategic importance, one of the greatest consequences of insecurity in the Red Sea is a significant increase in the cost of global trade and global energy transportation. </p>
<p>For example, an oil tanker leaving the Gulf would reach the port of London, 12,000km away, <a href="http://ports.com/sea-route/port-of-al-kuwayt,kuwait/port-of-londonderry,united-kingdom/">in 14 days</a> (at a speed of 22 knots) via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. But if that route is not available the tanker would have to go around the southern tip of Africa – a 24-day journey covering 20,900km.</p>
<p>The Red Sea’s strategic importance also makes it an important geopolitical area. Countries have <a href="https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/sipripp54_0.pdf">military bases</a> here and intervene to protect oil and merchant shipping. These include military bases of Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, China, the US, Italy, France, and Japan. </p>
<p>The Red Sea is therefore an area where complex global relations can play out. For instance, Israel’s attempt to control the <a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/israels-sinai-dilemma">Sinai Peninsula</a>, one of the key supply routes for the Palestinian resistance, threatens the safety of merchant shipping in the Red Sea.</p>
<p>The Red Sea is also a security hotspot, drawing in countries that sit on either side of it, such as Yemen and Eritrea, as well as countries much further afield, such as the US and China.</p>
<iframe title="" aria-label="Locator maps" id="datawrapper-chart-uktYg" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uktYg/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="650" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<h2>Who are the Houthi militia? Why are they carrying out attacks?</h2>
<p>Because of the fragility, or lack, of central government in Somalia and Yemen, non-state armed groups are becoming more active. Examples include the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep55423.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3Abcad3b49f36a2209db265e84b98ac4c1&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_search_gsv2%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=&acceptTC=1">Houthi</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26297008.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A3e7f38c4d0743bfab84eaf4812fbb476&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">al-Hirak</a> in Yemen and Somalia’s <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26351270.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A01204b47bdbe5fe2c9d545df0a79f99c&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">al-Shabaab</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26297736.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3Abbab4fe5bcd7187fc0621ba043188061&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">Ansar al-Sharia</a>. </p>
<p>The Houthi militia, also known as Ansar Allah, is a rebel group based in Yemen. Originating from the Zaidi Shia Muslim minority, they rose to prominence in the early 2000s, opposing Yemen’s central government. The group’s name comes from its founder, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi. </p>
<p>The Houthis aim to establish a Zaidi Shia-led government in Yemen. They’ve been involved in armed conflicts with the Yemeni government supported by Saudi-UAE coalition, including the Yemeni Civil War. They’re also backed by Iran. This is not to say the Houthi are a monolithic entity with a single common agenda; they are a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep40553.7.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A11e66397f6320c7d5b8b91336cd2da4e&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">complex and volatile</a> coalition. </p>
<p>The Houthis are, currently, the Red Sea basine’s most pressing security danger. </p>
<p>Houthi soldiers have hounded, assaulted and taken control of many boats <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26470495.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A6f6473f21a1081338473ca7920a79e32&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">since 2016</a>. Their earliest techniques, such as rocket-propelled grenades, were not very sophisticated, but their strategies <a href="https://pt.icct.nl/sites/default/files/import/pdf/haugstvedt-and-jacobsen.pdf">have evolved</a> to be more hazardous and successful. They have employed mines, drones and anti-ship missiles. The biggest casualty of their attacks are <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep38651.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A3e9f92532ab00045060bdcd43edb1719&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_search_gsv2%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">Saudi</a> ships and ports. </p>
<p>The Houthi have weakened Yemen and exposed the country to foreign intervention. For instance, in 2015, the United States supported <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/yemen/yemen-peace-possible">Saudi Arabia’s intervention</a> to prevent the Houthis from invading all of Yemen. </p>
<h2>What are the other major security challenges facing the region?</h2>
<p>The biggest are the ongoing wars and tensions between and within each country. These include disputes over the affiliation of the <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/red-sea-old-new-arena-interest/">Red Sea islands</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep12602.6.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3Aeb6117d282db2402cdac046b5860ef76&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_search_gsv2%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">border disputes</a>, <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/gray-zones-in-the-middle-east">territorial claims</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep21365.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A7eada516b25619aa413ec7fb9a0242df&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">conflicting economic interests</a>, ideological differences and ethnic divisions. Examples of these include the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep26165.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A86d529deede5c526ae8633abe7a04d2a&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_search_gsv2%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">Yemen-Saudi Arabia War</a> and tensions between Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt over the <a href="https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/resources/docs/SIPRI_Insight-2005.pdf">Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam</a>.</p>
<p>Regional crises – such as the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/10.7864/j.ctt1657tv8.6.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3Ae52070930a6b2a2dc6bc03266e0cbb15&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">Arab Spring</a>, the <a href="https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/2031280/is-there-a-path-out-of-the-yemen-conflict-why-it-matters/">Yemen crisis</a>, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/blockade-of-port-sudan-whats-behind-it-and-what-can-end-it-169264">Sudan</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep17358.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A943c3408b7774a356da3014f58599b3b&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">Qatar</a> blockades – also have a direct impact on the balance of power in the Red Sea.</p>
<p>Another major, escalating security problem is that the Red Sea is being <a href="https://www.coursehero.com/file/140125832/IPI-Rpt-Humanitarian-Crisis-in-Yemenpdf/">used by </a>smugglers smuggling – goods as well as people. They have used the proceeds to finance civil wars and terrorist activities in the region. </p>
<p>Due to its transit point and proximity to conflict zones, the Red Sea is one of the areas with the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep25263.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3Afc8929cfe214b2980f81a00ec1842cb7&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_phrase_search%2Fcontrol&origin=&initiator=search-results&acceptTC=1">highest concentrations</a> of arms and <a href="https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1251">human traffickers</a>. </p>
<p>The growing power of the illegal sector has <a href="https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/iaip2015.pdf">adversely</a> affected regional stability. It has paved the way for the formation of many <a href="https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/hoa_pb_april_2019_1.pdf">organised crime groups</a>. It has also claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.</p>
<h2>What must be done to better secure the Red Sea area?</h2>
<p>For a number of years, the main security issue in the wider region was Somali piracy. A major coordinated naval operation, involving key international actors, helped to address the threat and shows what can be achieved. </p>
<p>This suggests that the first approach to this regional crisis should be regional cooperation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/somali-piracy-once-an-unsolvable-security-threat-has-almost-completely-stopped-heres-why-213872">Somali piracy, once an unsolvable security threat, has almost completely stopped. Here's why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 2020 the <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1612471">Red Sea Council (AKA Council of Arab and African Coastal States of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden)</a> was established by Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, Egypt, Yemen and Jordan with the aim of maintaining security and stability in the Red Sea. It was to consult and coordinate efforts to combat dangers, while not being a military group. </p>
<p>The Red Sea Council is meant to be a new regional instrument. However, the council <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202401020375.html">hasn’t been able</a> to prevent the militarisation of the Red Sea corridor – one of its mandates. This is due of a lack of support from the international community and<br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-abiy-takes-a-page-from-russia-china-in-asserting-the-right-to-restore-historical-claim-to-strategic-waters-216237">historical tensions</a> over territorial issues. </p>
<p>It’s also <a href="https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/senior_study_group_on_peace_and_security_in_the_red_sea_arena-report.pdf#page=34">mainly dominated</a> by Saudi Arabia, based on its economic power and political authority. And so it could in fact work to limit the ability of Ethiopia, Qatar and Turkey, along with Iran, to move freely in the Red Sea. </p>
<p>Ultimately, increased coordination and collaboration between adversaries and allies with shared interests are necessary to ensure the safety and security of the Red Sea.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220951/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Burak Şakir Şeker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the biggest consequences of insecurity in the Red Sea is a significant increase in the cost of global trade.Burak Şakir Şeker, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193672024-01-03T16:00:11Z2024-01-03T16:00:11ZWe used AI and satellite imagery to map ocean activities that take place out of sight, including fishing, shipping and energy development<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566911/original/file-20231220-19-b20mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4839%2C3265&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many commercial fishing boats do not report their positions at sea or are not required to do so.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/aerial-view-of-small-fishing-boat-in-open-ocean-royalty-free-image/1285320085">Alex Walker via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Humans are racing to harness the ocean’s vast potential to power global economic growth. Worldwide, ocean-based industries such as fishing, shipping and energy production generate at least <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264251724-en">US$1.5 trillion</a> in economic activity each year and support <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264251724-en">31 million jobs</a>. This value has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.12.016">increasing exponentially</a> over the past 50 years and is expected to double by 2030. </p>
<p>Transparency in monitoring this “blue acceleration” is crucial to prevent <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3553458">environmental degradation</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0461en">overexploitation</a> of fisheries and marine resources, and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/the-crimes-behind-the-seafood-you-eat">lawless behavior</a> such as illegal fishing and human trafficking. Open information also will make countries better able to manage vital ocean resources effectively. But the sheer size of the ocean has made tracking industrial activities at a broad scale impractical – until now.</p>
<p>A newly published study in the journal Nature combines satellite images, vessel GPS data and artificial intelligence to <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06825-8">reveal human industrial activities across the ocean</a> over a five-year period. Researchers at <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/">Global Fishing Watch</a>, a nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing ocean governance through increased transparency of human activity at sea, led this study, in collaboration with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ArWZ7X0AAAAJ&hl=en">me</a> and our colleagues at Duke University, University of California, Santa Barbara and <a href="https://skytruth.org/">SkyTruth</a>.</p>
<p>We found that a remarkable amount of activity occurs outside of public monitoring systems. Our new map and data provide the most comprehensive public picture available of industrial uses of the ocean.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A world map shows large areas where industrial fishing activity is not publicly tracked or recorded." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566373/original/file-20231218-27-k4cjbr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data analysis reveals that about 75% of the world’s industrial fishing vessels are not publicly tracked, with much of that fishing taking place around Africa and South Asia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Global Fishing Watch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Operating in the dark</h2>
<p>Our research builds on existing technology to provide a much more complete picture than has been available until now. </p>
<p>For example, many vessels carry a device called an automatic identification system, or AIS, that automatically broadcasts the vessel’s identity, position, course and speed. These devices <a href="https://shipping.nato.int/nsc/operations/news/2021/ais-automatic-identification-system-overview">communicate with other AIS devices nearby</a> to improve situational awareness and reduce the chances of vessel collisions at sea. They also transmit to shore-based transponders and satellites, which can be used to <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/our-map/">monitor vessel traffic and fishing activity</a>.</p>
<p>However, AIS systems have blind spots. Not all vessels are required to use them, certain regions have poor AIS reception, and vessels engaged in illegal activities may <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-fishing-boats-go-dark-at-sea-theyre-often-committing-crimes-we-mapped-where-it-happens-196694">disable AIS devices</a> or <a href="https://youtu.be/Azm4yKKIlqE?si=vvng8to_Hsa13E1p">tamper with location broadcasts</a>. To avoid these problems, some governments require fishing vessels to use proprietary vessel monitoring systems, but the associated vessel location data is usually confidential.</p>
<p>Some offshore structures, such as oil platforms and wind turbines, <a href="https://www.amsa.gov.au/safety-navigation/navigation-systems/automatic-identification-systems-offshore-structures">also use AIS</a> to guide service vessels, monitor nearby vessel traffic and improve navigational safety. However, location data for offshore structures are often incomplete, outdated or kept confidential for bureaucratic or commercial reasons.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Fishermen wade into the ocean, pulling large nets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566375/original/file-20231218-23-bd69hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fishermen haul their nets by hand from the beach in Muanda, Democratic Republic of Congo. Unregulated fishing by foreign trawlers and other factors have depleted fishing stocks and impoverished local fishermen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fishermen-haul-their-nets-by-hand-from-the-beach-in-muanda-news-photo/1237283044">Alexis Huguet/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shining a light on activity at sea</h2>
<p>We filled these gaps by using artificial intelligence models to identify fishing vessels, nonfishing vessels and fixed infrastructure in 2 million gigabytes of satellite-based <a href="https://sentinels.copernicus.eu/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-1">radar images</a> and <a href="https://sentinel.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-2">optical images</a> taken across the ocean between 2017 and 2021. We also matched these results to 53 billion AIS vessel position reports to determine which vessels were publicly trackable at the time of the image.</p>
<p>Remarkably, we found that about 75% of the fishing vessels we detected were missing from public AIS monitoring systems, with much of that activity taking place around Africa and South Asia. These previously invisible vessels radically changed our knowledge about the scale, scope and location of fishing activity.</p>
<p>For example, public AIS data wrongly suggests that Asia and Europe have comparable amounts of fishing within their borders. Our mapping reveals that Asia dominates: For every 10 fishing vessels we found on the water, seven were in Asia while only one was in Europe. Similarly, AIS data shows about 10 times more fishing on the European side of the Mediterranean compared with the African side – but our map shows that fishing activity is roughly equal across the two areas.</p>
<p>For other vessels, which are mostly transport- and energy-related, about 25% were missing from public AIS monitoring systems. Many missing vessels were in locations with poor AIS reception, so it is possible that they broadcast their locations but satellites did not pick up the transmission.</p>
<p>We also identified about 28,000 offshore structures – mostly oil platforms and wind turbines, but also piers, bridges, power lines, aquaculture farms and other human-made structures. Offshore oil infrastructure grew modestly over the five-year period, while the number of wind turbines more than doubled globally, with development mostly confined to northern Europe and China. We estimate that the number of wind turbines in the ocean likely surpassed the number of oil structures by the end of 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map with locations of wind turbines, oil and gas platforms and other structures highlighted along coastlines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566913/original/file-20231220-23-fa89lc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers combined machine learning and satellite imagery to create the first global map of offshore infrastructure, spotlighting previously unmapped industrial use of the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Global Fishing Watch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Supporting real-world efforts</h2>
<p>This data is freely available through the Global Fishing Watch <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/datasets-and-code/">data portal</a> and will be maintained, updated and expanded over time there. We anticipate several areas where the information will be most useful for on-the-ground monitoring:</p>
<p>– <strong>Fishing in data-poor regions</strong>: Shipboard monitoring systems are too expensive to deploy widely in many places. Fishery managers in developing countries can use our data to monitor pressure on local stocks. </p>
<p>– <strong>Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing</strong>: Industrial fishing vessels sometimes operate in places where they should not be, such as <a href="https://hakaimagazine.com/news/the-african-coastline-is-a-battleground-for-foreign-fleets-and-artisanal-fishers/">small-scale and traditional fishing grounds</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fishing-illegal-oceana-going-dark-marine-protected-areas-2018-4">marine protected areas</a>. Our data can help enforcement agencies identify illegal activities and target patrol efforts.</p>
<p>– <strong>Sanction-busting trade</strong>: Our data can shed light on maritime activities that may breach international economic sanctions. For example, <a href="https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1718/resolutions">United Nations sanctions</a> prohibit North Korea from exporting seafood products or selling its fishing rights to other countries. Previous work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb1197">found more than 900 undisclosed fishing vessels</a> of Chinese origin in the eastern waters of North Korea, in violation of U.N. sanctions. </p>
<p>We found that the western waters of North Korea had far more undisclosed fishing, likely also of foreign origin. This previously unmapped activity peaked each year in May, when China bans fishing in its own waters, and abruptly fell in 2020 when North Korea closed its borders because of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZRLW-3Niseg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Better monitoring may help nations coordinate offshore activities in busy regions like the North Sea.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>– <strong>Climate change mitigation and adaptation</strong>: Our data can help quantify the scale of greenhouse gas emissions from vessel traffic and offshore energy development. This information is important for enforcing climate change mitigation programs, such as the European Union’s <a href="https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport/reducing-emissions-shipping-sector_en">emissions trading scheme</a>. </p>
<p>– <strong>Offshore energy impacts</strong>: Our map shows not only where offshore energy development is happening but also how vessel traffic interacts with wind turbines and oil and gas platforms. This information can shed light on the environmental footprint of building, maintaining and using these structures. It can also help to <a href="https://skytruth.org/cerulean/">pinpoint sources of oil spills</a> and other marine pollution. </p>
<p>Healthy oceans <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/why-care-about-ocean.html">underpin human well-being</a> in a myriad of ways. We expect that this research will support evidence-based decision-making and help to make ocean management more fair, effective and sustainable.</p>
<p><em>Fernando Paolo, senior machine learning engineer at Global Fishing Watch; David Kroodsma, director of research and innovation at Global Fishing Watch; and Patrick Halpin, Professor of Marine Geospatial Ecology at Duke University, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The study described in this article was funded by Oceankind, Bloomberg Philanthropies and National Geographic Pristine Seas. The European Space Agency made radar and optical imagery freely available, and Google provided computing resources and technical support. Jennifer Raynor has worked at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries, and currently serves on the Board of Trustees for Global Fishing Watch.</span></em></p>A new study reveals that 75% of the world’s industrial fishing vessels are hidden from public view.Jennifer Raynor, Assistant Professor of Natural Resource Economics, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201102023-12-20T16:01:58Z2023-12-20T16:01:58ZHow Red Sea attacks on cargo ships could disrupt deliveries and push up prices – a logistics expert explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566871/original/file-20231220-15-1w8mte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C6006%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Suez Canal is a busy shipping lane but companies are diverting ships to other routes following attacks on vessels.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-on-containers-loaded-deck-cargo-2038231799">Mariusz Bugno/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Attacks on international cargo ships in the Red Sea from Houthi-controlled Yemen have seen several <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uk-maritime-agency-probing-reports-further-incident-near-bab-al-mandab-strait-2023-12-15/">cargo vessels hit</a> by missiles and drones in recent days. </p>
<p>In response, global shipping companies and cargo owners – including some of the world’s largest container lines such as Maersk, as well as energy giant BP – have diverted ships from the Red Sea. So far, more than <a href="https://blog.shipsgo.com/list-of-ships-affected-on-the-red-sea-route/">40 container ships have been diverted</a>, with many rerouted to less direct channels than the Suez Canal – an artificial waterway in Egypt that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-led-taskforce-deploys-in-red-sea-as-middle-east-crisis-threatens-to-escalate-beyond-gaza-220164">US-led taskforce deploys in Red Sea as Middle East crisis threatens to escalate beyond Gaza</a>
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<p>Opened in 1869, the Suez Canal is one of the busiest canals in the world, carrying around <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/may/suez-canal-and-global-trade-routes#:%7E:text=Today's%20shortest%20sea%20route%20between,12%20percent%20of%20global%20trade.">12% of global trade</a>. In 2022, <a href="https://sis.gov.eg/Story/174758/President-El-Sisi-Follows-up-on-the-Activities-of-the-Suez-Canal-Authority?lang=en-us">23,583 ships</a> used this route. Any disruptions can have severe knock-on effects as these ships deliver goods from one country to another. Ultimately, this can even feed into the prices you pay for certain goods, as well as the time it takes to get things delivered from overseas.</p>
<p>Remember when the container vessel Ever Given got stuck in the Suez Canal for six days in 2021? It affected the shipping lane for weeks, <a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_03_26_SupplyChainDisruption.html">playing havoc with global supply chains</a> and disrupting global trade flow to the tune of billions. Previously, when the Suez Canal closed between 1967 and 1975 due to the six-day war between Israel and a group of Arab states, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102708">global trade was also negatively affected</a>. Ships had to sale around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope instead – a much longer route.</p>
<p>While there is also a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096669231100024X">Northern Sea route</a> that ships can take, it is not navigable in winter season and not yet commercially viable for many shipping companies. And so, the Suez Canal is the shortest and most suitable sea route between Asia and Europe.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map showing the Suez Canal as part of the solid line, which is a shorter route versus sailing around the Cape of Good Hope (dotted line)." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566869/original/file-20231220-23-i5fgge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566869/original/file-20231220-23-i5fgge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566869/original/file-20231220-23-i5fgge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566869/original/file-20231220-23-i5fgge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566869/original/file-20231220-23-i5fgge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566869/original/file-20231220-23-i5fgge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566869/original/file-20231220-23-i5fgge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Suez Canal (solid line) allows ships to make a much shorter journey between Asia and Europe. Otherwise, they are forced to sail around the Cape of Good Hope (dotted line).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/suez-canal-distance-benefits-shipping-routes-2137412625">Dimitrios Karamitros/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Longer journeys will impact global supply chains</h2>
<p>The sailing time between eastern Asia and western Europe can increase by about <a href="https://classic.searoutes.com">25-35%</a> when ships use the Cape route. For instance, a vessel travelling at 13.8 knots per hour (the current <a href="https://splash247.com/containerships-moving-at-all-time-low-speeds/">average speed of global container ships</a>) between Shanghai, China and the Port of Felixstowe in the UK will see its sailing time increase from an average of 31 days to 41 days when sailing around the Cape. </p>
<p>It’s even worse for exporters shipping goods from say Italy to Dubai – the Cape route could take them <a href="https://classic.searoutes.com">160% more</a> time than the Suez route (12 days versus 32 days). These sailing times could be more for container vessels as they stop at other ports along their routes.</p>
<p>When it comes to comparing costs for the two routes though, the figures are not straight forward. Vessels passing through Suez Canal need to pay a toll. This can be as much as <a href="https://globalmaritimehub.com/containerships-opt-for-cape-route.html#:%7E:text=Carriers'%20average%20operating%20margin%20falls%20to%201.5%25&text=Despite%20the%20longer%20distance%20via,laden%2020%2C000%20TEU%20container%20ship.">US$700,000</a> (£550,000) for a vessel carrying 20,000 containers (a typical large container vessel commonly used for east to west trades). But the Cape route could still cost 10% more, even with the canal transit fee, according to research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.martra.2022.100070">published in 2022</a>. The exact cost difference also depends on current fuel prices, as well as size and the type of vessel.</p>
<p>But it will be the reduced shipping capacity due to longer transit times, not the increased operating costs of shipowners, that will really weigh on global supply chains. This is because freight rates (the price companies pay to transport goods) depend on <a href="https://hrcak.srce.hr/140203">supply and demand</a>. </p>
<p>It was a supply and demand imbalance that caused shipping costs to skyrocket during the COVID pandemic. Shipping <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41278-021-00196-5">supply was reduced</a> because of disruptions, but demand increased because people were spending more on goods than services during lockdown. This time, the magnitude of freight rate increases is unlikely to be as large because there is no indication of a surge in demand for shipping services.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Large container ship stuck at an angle in a canal, surrounded by smaller ships." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566860/original/file-20231220-29-m561k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Ever Given got stuck in the Suez Canal, disrupting global supply chains, in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/ever-given-has-been-freed-suez-1945572919">Corona Borealis Studio/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How shipping disruption affects you</h2>
<p>If you live in the UK and have ordered new sofa from a manufacturer in China, you could expect a delay of at least ten days. The prices of certain products could also rise if freight levels increase significantly. An <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/03/28/how-soaring-shipping-costs-raise-prices-around-the-world">International Monetary Fund</a> forecast shows a doubling of shipping costs could increase consumer price inflation by 0.7% percent. </p>
<p>However, sea freight activity generally has a marginal impact on most consumer prices – it only makes up <a href="https://unctad.org/news/how-cushion-consumers-high-maritime-freight-rates">0.35% of prices for some types of clothing</a>, for example. On the other hand, oil prices could spike if more energy companies follow BP and stop using Suez Canal, especially if this disruption persists over time. The price of <a href="https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/">Brent Crude</a> – a global benchmark for oil – has already risen from US$73 on December 12 to about US$78 on December 18 2023.</p>
<p>Although you might not have to pay more for the products you buy, there is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.martra.2022.100070">another cost</a> of this situation, for people and the planet: increased carbon emissions. More than 3,000 extra nautical miles will be taken by vessels using Cape route, which could generate around <a href="https://classic.searoutes.com">30-35% more carbon emissions</a> than if these ships were sailing the Suez route. The shipping industry already creates <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-fuels-in-shipping-face-major-challenges-for-2050-net-zero-target-211797">3% of global emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Shipowners will be forced to keep diverting ships from the Red Sea if attacks on vessels continue. Of course, it remains to be seen when and how this problem will be solved. Until it is, uncertainty and change could continue to affect your pocket – and the planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gokcay Balci receives funding from the British Academy.</span></em></p>An Iran-aligned group has attacked ships in the Red Sea that it believes are heading to Israel, causing several companies to pause or divert shipments.Gokcay Balci, Assistant Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201642023-12-20T11:45:57Z2023-12-20T11:45:57ZUS-led taskforce deploys in Red Sea as Middle East crisis threatens to escalate beyond Gaza<p>The US is reportedly <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-joins-us-taskforce-as-houthis-attack-more-ships-in-red-sea-nzwr8mfmm">considering strikes</a> against Houthi rebels in Yemen that have been menacing commercial ships in the Red Sea since the conflict began in Gaza. The Pentagon has a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-19/us-weighs-whether-to-attack-houthis-beyond-defensive-task-force">range of options for missile attacks</a> on Houthi positions and has moved the Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group into position off the coast of Yemen.</p>
<p>Since November 2023, the Iran-backed Houthis have <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/the-red-sea-crisis-explained-houthis-austin-israel-gaza-iran-shipping-suez-drones-yemen-task-forse-153-red-sea/">conducted several attacks</a> on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Their attacks have increased navigation risks in the region and affected risk perception in the maritime sector. The economic and geopolitical implications are felt much beyond the coast of Yemen.</p>
<p>The world economy is strongly dependent on the global maritime supply chain. About <a href="https://unctad.org/topic/transport-and-trade-logistics/review-of-maritime-transport">80% of international trade</a> by volume is transported by sea. This figure rises to <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/623085988fa8f56c2614da97/board-of-trade-paper-maritime-trade-embracing-the-ocean.pdf">95% for the UK</a>. From mobile phones to clothes and from coffee to sugar, the manufactured items we use and the food we consume on a daily basis have been, at least in part, transported by sea.</p>
<h2>Supply chain vulnerabilities</h2>
<p>It does not take much to disrupt the global maritime supply chain. For instance, a simple accident that blocked the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56559073">Suez Canal for six days in 2021</a> or the shortage of labour in Chinese ports during the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/covid-19-impact-on-global-shipping-and-chinas-economy/">COVID pandemic</a> have been enough to negatively affect maritime supply chains and the global economy.</p>
<p>Intentional disruptions of the maritime supply chain by pirates or terrorists pose a challenge that goes beyond simple logistics.</p>
<p>Attacks on civilian shipping directly affect insurance premiums and deter operators from transiting through certain areas for financial and security reasons. The private maritime sector is <a href="https://assets.lloyds.com/media/35d9c95b-4e90-4be1-88a0-c05534c28ad1/Lloyds_shifting_powers_emerging_risk_report_v6.pdf">not immune to geopolitics</a>, and higher insurance premiums or the cost of rerouting ships eventually trickle down to consumers.</p>
<p>Piracy is a for-profit criminal activity that has disrupted maritime trade for decades, especially in eastern and western Africa. States have devoted <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Security/Pages/PiracyArmedRobberydefault.aspx">substantial resources</a> to deter and combat pirates, both at sea (for example deploying a <a href="https://combinedmaritimeforces.com/ctf-151-counter-piracy/">naval task force</a> to patrol shipping lanes) and on land to address the underlying <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-pirates-attack-geospatial-evidence/#:%7E:text=Lawlessness%20and%20weak%20governance%20create,encroachment%20by%20industrial%20fishing%20fleets.">socioeconomic causes</a> of piracy.</p>
<p>Politically motivated groups, including terrorist organisations, pose a different type of threat. Their primary objective is not to make money but to increase the visibility of their organisation, or to exercise leverage on other political actors at the regional or global level.</p>
<p>This is achieved by conducting attacks that increase risk and risk perception in a given area, disrupt maritime supply chains, and have disproportionate impacts on the geopolitical situation.</p>
<h2>Limited options</h2>
<p>The Houthis are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/who-are-yemens-houthis-why-are-they-attacking-red-sea-ships-2023-12-19/">politically motivated</a>. Their attacks aim to have an impact on the war in Gaza. Their location along a major sea lane of communication in the Red Sea gives them an asymmetrical advantage when it comes to attacking commercial shipping.</p>
<p>Major shipping companies and operators, from Maersk to BP, have <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67748605">paused operations</a> in the Red Sea. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67758126">Oil prices</a> are expected to rise. Consequently, Houthis’ attacks affect commerce and the economy much beyond the Red Sea. But options to address the threat are limited.</p>
<p>Politically motivated groups are more difficult to deter than pirates, because they are often willing to die for their cause. They are not looking for a ransom or bounty, but are trying to destroy or damage ships and disrupt shipping, so deploying vessel protection detachments or private security companies personnel onboard will have minimal or no effect.</p>
<h2>Military response</h2>
<p>Failing to deter Houthis from attacking commercial shipping, the second-best option is to increase naval presence to patrol the Red Sea. But this is not without political risks, since a further militarisation of the crisis might be used by the Houthis and others to <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/12/a-precarious-moment-for-yemens-truce.html">inflame the geopolitical situation</a> in Yemen and in the whole region.</p>
<p>As part of what it has called “Operation Prosperity Guardian”, the US has assembled an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/attacks-red-sea-navy-mission-missiles-286d51bfd65e741e839e185f0f4a455b">international naval task force</a> – including UK naval assets – which will have capabilities to intercept missiles and defend commercial shipping in case of an attack. </p>
<p>But, with a limited number of warships to patrol a large area and with early warning time for missile attacks limited due to the proximity of Yemen, it will be difficult to successfully defend against absolutely all attacks and prevent any damage from occurring.</p>
<p>That said, the symbolic value of such a task force is important. The task force’s success will be evaluated based on its ability in the short-term to <a href="https://www.imscsentinel.com/news/merchant-shipping-reassurance">add to existing mechanisms</a> to reassure insurers, operators and global markets that the route is safe enough for shipping operations, without risking military escalation in an extremely turbulent region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Basil Germond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A US-led naval taskforce has deployed in the Red Sea and is considering strikes on rebel positions in Yemen.Basil Germond, Professor of International Security, Department of Politics, Philosophy and Religion, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196292023-12-12T14:42:23Z2023-12-12T14:42:23ZSomali pirates are back in action: but a full scale return isn’t likely. Here’s why<p>An Iranian fishing vessel, Almeraj 1, was reportedly hijacked by Somali pirates in <a href="https://splash247.com/somali-pirates-make-their-first-return-in-years/">November 2023</a>. According to <a href="https://x.com/MohamedDekAbdal/status/1727726532376825900?s=20">media reports</a>, the pirates demanded US$400,000 in ransom and threatened to use the Iranian ship for additional hijackings if the payment was not made.</p>
<p>Two days later, other Somali pirates <a href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-somalia-houthi-pentagon-ship-bfa041bf410a40d4b79a086a6f88dd92">hijacked</a> a tanker, Central Park, off the Yemeni coast. The tanker sent a distress signal during the attack. Forces from a nearby American warship <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-yemen-ship-attack-526842504dc9f6bb7ca6e1d5104f77a3">captured the pirates</a> as they tried to flee in a small boat.</p>
<p>The two attacks have led the Somali government to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/somalia-piracy-houthis-yemen-israel-hamas-fa28cb2aa8fe7048fd60fd0f4ba05e26">call</a> for greater international support to deter a resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa. Similar <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/25/africa/piracy-resurgence-somalia/index.html">fears</a> that Somali piracy was on the <a href="https://eunavfor.eu/news/one-month-2019s-first-piracy-attack-somali-coast">rebound</a> surfaced after five previous attacks in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.</p>
<p>We have been <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=6ZYPGRsAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">studying</a> the rise and fall of <a href="https://scholar.google.dk/citations?hl=da&user=f4z0pC0AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Somali piracy</a>, and have tracked the problem for years. We do not regard a major rise in Somali piracy as likely. </p>
<h2>Addressing the threat</h2>
<p>Following previous threats, local authorities, experts and organisations tracking piracy globally warned that Somali pirates <a href="https://www.riskintelligence.eu/feature-articles/maritime-piracy-what-recent-developments-of-a-well-established-threat">retained the capacity</a> to launch attacks. This is also the <a href="https://www.steamshipmutual.com/sites/default/files/medialibrary/files/2023%20Jan%20-%20Sept%20IMB%20Piracy%20and%20Armed%20Robbery%20Report.pdf#page=2">current assessment</a> of the International Maritime Bureau’s Piracy Reporting Centre, which acts to suppress piracy and armed robbery at sea.</p>
<p>The concern is not surprising. </p>
<p>Somali piracy was a major threat to the region and the world economy at its height in 2011. That year alone, Somali pirates carried out <a href="https://eunavfor.eu/key-facts-and-figures">212 attacks</a>. The <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/6b9570fe-2f52-546f-af4b-605e4ebf04e6">World Bank</a> estimated that these cost the world economy US$18 billion.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/somali-piracy-once-an-unsolvable-security-threat-has-almost-completely-stopped-heres-why-213872">Somali piracy, once an unsolvable security threat, has almost completely stopped. Here's why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2023.2227356">recent analysis</a>, we concluded that a range of anti-piracy measures had put a stop to Somali piracy. The measures fall into four main categories:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>anti-piracy naval operations by the world’s most capable navies</p></li>
<li><p>costly self-protection measures, including the use of armed guards, by most flag states and shipping owners</p></li>
<li><p>a legal toolbox enabling pirate prosecution and imprisonment</p></li>
<li><p>capacity-building and the ability to imprison pirates regionally and in Somalia.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Anti-piracy measures</h2>
<p>These measures remain largely in place. </p>
<p><strong>Measure 1:</strong> The size of anti-piracy naval operations may have shrunk but some international forces remain active. Nato – an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 European and two North American member states – terminated its anti-piracy mission in <a href="https://mc.nato.int/missions/operation-ocean-shield">2016</a>. However, the European Union <a href="https://eunavfor.eu/">retains</a> its mission, as does a US-led coalition. <a href="https://combinedmaritimeforces.com/ctf-151-counter-piracy/">Together</a> they seek to suppress piracy outside the territorial waters of Somalia and other coastal states in the region. In addition, independent deployers like China have warships on patrol.</p>
<p><strong>Measure 2:</strong> Most commercial ships sailing through the Gulf of Aden, the Somali basin and the Indian Ocean follow many of the <a href="https://www.steamshipmutual.com/sites/default/files/downloads/loss-prevention/BMP%25205.pdf#page=17">self-protection measures</a> recommended by flag states and the main maritime industry organisations. While the number of ships carrying armed guards has dropped considerably, most commercial ships report to the maritime security centres, follow the recommended transit corridor <a href="https://safety4sea.com/eu-extension-of-naval-operation-against-piracy-off-somalia-until-2024/">protected by international naval forces</a> and join group transits. </p>
<p><strong>Measure 3:</strong> The legal toolbox and the post-trial transfer system making it possible to prosecute pirates and imprison them in Somalia remains in place. This makes jail the most likely destination for the five pirates recently <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-yemen-ship-attack-526842504dc9f6bb7ca6e1d5104f77a3">apprehended by US forces</a> following their hijacking of Central Park. Successful prosecution and imprisonment would signal to other pirates that piracy remains an unprofitable undertaking off the Somali coast.</p>
<p><strong>Measure 4:</strong> International efforts continue to increase the capacity of Somalia and other regional states to patrol their national waters. The <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eucap-som_en?s=332">EU’s capacity building mission in Somalia</a>, for instance, still supports Somalia’s maritime security sector. It seeks to strengthen the sector’s capacity to <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eucap-som/about-eucap-somalia_en?s=332">deter, capture and prosecute pirates</a>. The successful operations undertaken by the Puntland Maritime Police Force – including <a href="https://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/unifeed/asset/U121/U121231a/">securing the release of hostages</a> – indicate that these efforts are paying off.</p>
<p>These anti-piracy measures continue to be implemented by a broad coalition of state and private actors. They include states from outside the region, regional nations, Somali authorities and the international shipping industry. As long as these actors continue to invest in maintaining these measures, Somali piracy will remain unprofitable.</p>
<h2>High risks, few rewards</h2>
<p>It remains to be seen if the ransom demand for the Iranian fishing vessel Almeraj 1 will succeed. However, pirates don’t appear to have made any money from any of the other five attacks launched in the 2017-2023 period. We haven’t been able to ascertain if any ransom was paid to secure the release of a Panama-flagged ship captured in <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/somali-pirates-hijack-panama-flagged-ship/a-54637865">August 2020</a>. In the other four instances, the attacks either failed or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/16/somali-pirates-release-oil-tanker-and-crew-after-first-hijack-for-five-years">didn’t result in ransom payments</a>. </p>
<p>Even if the US$400,000 ransom demand succeeds, it doesn’t alter the overall conclusion that piracy off the Somali coast remains a high-risk undertaking with a low probability of success. This suggests that a major increase in Somali piracy is highly unlikely. </p>
<p>If it did happen, though, it would be easy for international naval forces and the shipping industry to reduce the prospects of success by stepping up naval patrols and reintroducing armed guards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Piracy off the Somali coast remains a high-risk undertaking with a low probability of success.Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Associate professor, Royal Danish Defence CollegeTroels Burchall Henningsen, Associate Professor, Royal Danish Defence CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2146832023-12-12T13:23:28Z2023-12-12T13:23:28ZCould UPS and FedEx get holiday packages to their destinations faster? This research suggests yes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557352/original/file-20231102-25-ip1egj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=68%2C24%2C4083%2C2726&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The real heroes of the holidays.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fedex-delivery-driver-unloads-packages-from-his-truck-in-news-photo/691611386?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year, parcel delivery companies – think UPS and FedEx – <a href="https://www.zippia.com/truck-driver-helper-jobs/demographics/">hire tens of thousands</a> of seasonal <a href="https://www.jobs-ups.com/driver-helper">driver helpers</a> to handle the deluge of presents that arrive with the holidays. At peak times, shipping firms depend on their helpers just as much as Santa depends on his elves. And those companies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12559">could save millions of dollars</a> each year – and shave time off their deliveries – simply by tweaking the roles they gave those workers to be more efficient, my colleagues and I recently found. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://ilitchbusiness.wayne.edu/profile/hp9434">a professor of supply chain management</a>, I’m interested in how shipping companies can reach complex logistical goals. And there are few goals more challenging than getting <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/new-this-holiday-season-discounts-on-shipping-packages-7297097c">90 million parcels</a> to their destinations every day, which was the industrywide average during the 2022 U.S. holiday season. </p>
<p>So, when a major shipping company asked for some fellow researchers and me to find ways to improve the system, we jumped at the chance. Using mathematical models and a field experiment in a small Midwestern city, we found that reassigning these workers could unlock major efficiency gains. </p>
<h2>Have yourself some merry little logistics</h2>
<p>If you want your presents to land at Grandma’s house on time and you don’t live nearby, you’ll probably need a shipping company to help. But such firms have been under strain for years, thanks to the rapid growth of online shopping, lingering supply chain problems, <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/08/08/ups-drivers-170000-union-agreement-teamsters-middle-class-bidenomics">labor issues</a> and more. Unsurprisingly, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jbl.12242">shipping delays are becoming more common</a>. So improving efficiency would be a big deal.</p>
<p>The way things work now is that seasonal helpers are divided into two groups. Some are assigned to a driver and ride with them along their entire route. Others work alone at locations with many customers, such as shopping malls or big apartment complexes. Drivers stop by those sites and drop off many packages; these independent helpers then use equipment such as hand trucks to deliver the items to their final destinations.</p>
<p>The current system was a big innovation when it was introduced. Helpers can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jbl.12242">halve the time</a> that drivers spend delivering packages at some stops, allowing a single vehicle to deliver more packages each day. </p>
<p>But it doesn’t work perfectly. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jbl.12242">Helpers are often underused</a>, and sometimes they don’t have enough hours per day for the work to be economically viable for them. Independent helpers may be assigned deliveries on days that don’t take up their entire paid work time. Meanwhile, drivers aren’t always thrilled when helpers accompany them – especially if they aren’t really needed on the entire delivery route. </p>
<h2>A smarter approach for the holidays</h2>
<p>To improve both types of helpers’ efficiency while boosting their morale, my co-authors and I proposed the concept of a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12559">hybrid helper</a>.” A hybrid helper would deliver parcels together with a driver on part of the route, but could also be dropped off at select locations to work alone to deliver packages, with the driver returning later to pick up the helper. </p>
<p>Using a hybrid approach could save UPS up to US$4 million annually and cut last-mile delivery times by nearly 8%, our analysis found. </p>
<p>Studies like ours are a first step toward showing how adjusting delivery models could benefit companies while boosting worker satisfaction. But key questions remain. Another research team recently proposed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0211">a promising approach</a> that cut last-mile delivery times by up to 43% by using an algorithm to find near-optimal routes for hybrid helpers. However, it’s not yet clear what that might cost.</p>
<p>To be sure, change isn’t easy. Adopting the hybrid helper approach would require the major package delivery companies to update the routing models they use. Such routing models are often proprietary and have been developed over decades, with a lot of time and money committed to their development. But revamping the system could save a lot of money and time – and that would give everyone a little more holiday cheer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214683/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toyin Clottey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rethinking seasonal workers’ roles would help parcel delivery companies save time and money − and boost morale, too.Toyin Clottey, Professor of Supply Chain Management, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175962023-11-21T16:54:43Z2023-11-21T16:54:43ZSails and satellite navigation could cut shipping industry’s emissions by up to a third<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560751/original/file-20231121-3914-abgr8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1174%2C880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cargo vessel with Flettner rotors – a modern equivalent to sails.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norsepower</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the vast expanse of the world’s oceans, a transformation is underway.</p>
<p>The international shipping sector, made up of thousands of massive cargo ships laden with many of the goods we buy, emits carbon dioxide (CO₂) roughly equivalent to the entire country of <a href="https://shorturl.at/dfipW">Germany</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1991876">research</a> emphasises the
need for immediate action. Reducing shipping emissions by 34% by 2030 is necessary to stay on course with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. But with low-carbon fuel pipelines unlikely to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-fuels-in-shipping-face-major-challenges-for-2050-net-zero-target-211797">available</a> at the necessary scale until at least the 2030s, how can the industry meet its short-term target?</p>
<p>Enter a new solution with ancient origins: sails. Not the billowing canvases of centuries past but high-tech systems capable of harnessing renewable wind energy to supplement the propulsion from a ship’s engine. </p>
<p>A number of advanced sail designs are gaining the attention of shipping firms. Two contenders include Flettner rotors, cylinders that spin to generate propulsion, and “wingsails”, which resemble aeroplane wings and are derived from designs used in yacht racing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A concept image of a cargo vessel fitted with six vertical wingsails." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wingsails, analogous to aeroplane wings, provide lift on either side.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Smart Green Shipping</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wind propulsion allows ships to use less fuel and so emit less greenhouse gas. However, in our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.116065">new paper</a>, we found that the real opportunity to slash emissions from shipping this decade lies in combining sails with optimal routes plotted by satellite navigation systems.</p>
<h2>An old idea with new technology</h2>
<p>Optimised routing is a familiar concept to most of us. You’ll have used it by typing a destination into Google Maps and allowing its algorithms to calculate the quickest way for you to arrive at your destination.</p>
<p>The process is similar for ships. But instead of finding the quickest journey, the software models the ship’s performance in water to calculate routes and speeds that minimise fuel use.</p>
<p>With optimised routing and sails, ships can deviate from their standard course to seek out favourable winds. The ship may travel a longer distance but the extra power gained by the sails limits the ship’s fuel consumption and reduces the total emissions over the full journey. The software only suggests routes that guarantee the same arrival time, keeping the ship to its original schedule.</p>
<p>We used a computer model simulation of a cargo vessel with four sails, each taller than Brazil’s Christ the Redeemer statue at 35 meters high. By calculating the fuel consumption of this large bulk carrier ship on over 100,000 journeys spanning four years and covering 14 shipping routes worldwide, we found that sails can cut annual carbon emissions by around 10%.</p>
<p>The true promise of sails unfolds when optimal routing is used, increasing annual emission cuts to 17%.</p>
<p>Routes with ideal wind conditions have even greater potential. The most promising are typically those far from the equator, such as transatlantic and transpacific crossings, where strong winds can fill large sails. By taking advantage of wind patterns moving across the ocean on these routes, sails and optimised routing can cut annual emissions by over 30%.</p>
<p>Take the journey between the UK and the US as an example. A ship setting out on this voyage will typically experience strong headwinds which generate drag and push the ship backwards, meaning more fuel must be burned to maintain the same forward momentum. But by using sails and optimised routing software on this crossing, ships can avoid these headwinds and steer into more favourable winds.</p>
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<img alt="A cargo vessel with two cylinders rising from the deck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Flettner rotors are smooth cylinders with discs that spin as wind passes at right angles across it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norsepower</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>On the return journey, the ship would typically experience strong winds from behind and the side, which would fill the sails and push the ship on. With optimised routing software the ship can find even stronger winds and fine-tune its direction for the sails to maximise propulsion.</p>
<h2>Keeping the 1.5°C target afloat</h2>
<p>The International Maritime Organization (the UN agency responsible for environmental regulation in shipping) has a <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/2023-IMO-Strategy-on-Reduction-of-GHG-Emissions-from-Ships.aspx#:%7E:text=The%25202023%2520IMO%2520GHG%2520Strategy%2520envisages%252C%2520in%2520particular%252C%2520a%2520reduction,at%2520least%252040%2525%2520by%25202030.">target</a> of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 20%-30% by 2030. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target <a href="https://theconversation.com/shipping-must-accelerate-its-decarbonisation-efforts-and-now-it-has-the-opportunity-to-do-so-195222">requires even deeper cuts</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/shipping-emissions-must-fall-by-a-third-by-2030-and-reach-zero-before-2050-new-research-167830">Shipping emissions must fall by a third by 2030 and reach zero before 2050 – new research</a>
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<p>Our research shows that cuts to CO₂ of this magnitude are possible this decade using wind propulsion and optimised routing on promising routes. Achieving this will oblige the shipping industry to deploy existing technologies and practices and shift its focus from fuel alone, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-fuels-in-shipping-face-major-challenges-for-2050-net-zero-target-211797">zero-carbon fuels</a> will take longer to develop.</p>
<p>As we sail further into the 21st century, our research delivers a clear message to the shipping industry: substantial carbon reductions are feasible this decade. Here is an old idea, one that integrates technology with tradition, that can steer international shipping towards its climate goals.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Mason works for Smart Green Shipping, a company which manufactures aluminium wingsails for cargo ships. He has received funding from the UK research council EPSRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alice Larkin has received funding from EPSRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Bullock has received funding from EPSRC.</span></em></p>Modern mariners can harness trade winds to reduce carbon emissions.James Mason, Visiting Academic in Decarbonisation, University of ManchesterAlice Larkin, Professor of Climate Science and Energy Policy, University of ManchesterSimon Bullock, Research Associate, Shipping and Climate Change, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181162023-11-20T06:46:09Z2023-11-20T06:46:09ZWhat is a sonar pulse and how can it injure humans under water?<p>Over the weekend, the Australian government revealed that last Tuesday its navy divers had sustained “minor injuries”, likely due to sonar pulses from a Chinese navy vessel.</p>
<p>The divers had been clearing fishing nets from the propellers of HMAS Toowoomba while in international waters off the coast of Japan. According to <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2023-11-18/unsafe-and-unprofessional-interaction-pla-n">a statement from deputy prime minister Richard Marles</a>, despite HMAS Toowoomba communicating with internationally recognised signals, the Chinese vessel approached the Australian ship and turned on its sonar, forcing the Australian divers to exit the water.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-should-come-clean-about-what-he-did-or-didnt-say-to-xi-jinping-about-sonar-incident-218115">View from The Hill: Albanese should come clean about what he did or didn't say to Xi Jinping about sonar incident</a>
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<p>The incident prompted a response from the Australian government, who labelled the incident “unsafe and unprofessional”. But what exactly is a sonar pulse, and what kinds of injuries can sonar cause to divers?</p>
<h2>What is sonar?</h2>
<p>Light doesn’t travel well under water – even in clear waters, you can see perhaps some tens of metres. Sound, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97540-1_6">travels very well</a> and far under water. This is because water is much denser than air, and so <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97540-1_4">can respond faster</a> and better to <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/sound01/background/acoustics/acoustics.html">acoustic pressure waves</a> – sound waves.</p>
<p>Because of these properties, ships use sonar to navigate through the ocean and to “see” under water. The word “sonar” stands for sound navigation and ranging.</p>
<p>Sonar equipment sends out short acoustic (sound) pulses or pings, and then analyses the echoes. Depending on the timing, amplitude, phase and direction of the echoes the equipment receives, you can tell what’s under water – the seafloor, canyon walls, coral, fishes, and of course ships and submarines.</p>
<p>Most vessels – from small, private boats to large commercial tankers – use sonar. However, compared to your off-the-shelf sonar used for finding fish, navy sonars are stronger.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screen labelled 'echo sounder' with a heat map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560313/original/file-20231120-18-pkot7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An echo sounder on a boat uses sound waves to help gauge the depth of the water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-echo-sounder-on-board-marine-1017607606">mark_vyz/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What are the effects of sonar on divers?</h2>
<p>This is a difficult topic to study, because you don’t want to deliberately expose humans to harmful levels of sound. There are, however, anecdotes from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1121/1.3280165">various navies</a> and accidental exposures. There have <a href="http://resource.npl.co.uk/docs/science_technology/acoustics/clubs_groups/13oct05_seminar/parvin_subacoustech.pdf">also been studies</a> on what humans can hear under water, with or without neoprene suits, hoods, or helmets. </p>
<p>We don’t hear well under water – no surprise, since we’ve evolved to live on land. Having said that, <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA407482.pdf">you would hear</a> a sonar sound under water (a mid-to-high pitch noise) and would know you’ve been exposed.</p>
<p>When it comes to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11732884/">naval sonars</a>, human divers have rated the sound as “unpleasant to severe” at levels of roughly 150dB re 1 µPa (decibel relative to a reference pressure of one micropascal, <a href="https://dosits.org/decision-makers/units-page-for-regulators/">the standard reference for underwater sound</a>). This would be perhaps, very roughly, 10km away from a military sonar. Note that we can’t compare sound exposure under water to what we’d receive through the air, because there are too many physical differences between the two.</p>
<p>Human tolerance limits are roughly 180dB re 1 µPa, which would be around 500m from military sonar. At such levels, humans might experience dizziness, disorientation, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jonathan-Clark-10/publication/12672627_Noise-induced_neurologic_disturbances_in_divers_exposed_to_intense_water-borne_sound_Two_case_reports/links/578e8b7108ae9754b7e9f1c8/Noise-induced-neurologic-disturbances-in-divers-exposed-to-intense-water-borne-sound-Two-case-reports.pdf">temporary memory and concentration impacts</a>, or temporary <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00405-009-1039-z">hearing loss</a>. We don’t have information on what levels the Australian divers were exposed to, but their injuries were described as minor.</p>
<p>At higher received levels, closer ranges, or longer exposures, you might see more severe physiological or health impacts. In extreme cases, in particular for impulsive, sudden sound (which sonar is not), sound <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97540-1_13">can cause damage</a> to tissues and organs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mosquito-devices-may-be-used-to-disperse-australian-delinquents-but-how-do-they-work-14743">Mosquito devices may be used to disperse Australian delinquents – but how do they work?</a>
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<h2>What does sonar do to marine animals?</h2>
<p>Some of the information on what noise might do to humans under water comes from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12955">studies and observations of animals</a>.</p>
<p>While they typically don’t have outer ears (except for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/story/whats-the-difference-between-seals-and-sea-lions">sea lions</a>), marine mammals have inner ears that function similarly to ours. They can receive hearing damage from noise, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1578/AM.45.2.2019.125">just like we do</a>. This might be temporary, like the ringing ears or reduced sensitivity you might experience after a loud concert, or it can be permanent. </p>
<p>Marine mammals living in a dark ocean rely on sound and hearing to a greater extent than your average human. They use sound to navigate, hunt, communicate with each other and to find mates. Toothed whales and dolphins have evolved a biological echo sounder or biosonar, which sends out series of clicks and listens for echoes. So, interfering with their sounds or impacting their hearing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-8574-6_10">can disrupt critical behaviours</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, sound may also impact non-mammalian fauna, such as fishes, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06659-2">rely on acoustics</a> rather than vision for many of their life functions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/loud-sounds-at-movies-and-concerts-can-cause-hearing-loss-but-there-are-ways-to-protect-your-ears-211484">Loud sounds at movies and concerts can cause hearing loss, but there are ways to protect your ears</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Erbe receives funding from offshore oil and gas companies, the US Office of Naval Research, and the Western Australian Marine Science Institution. </span></em></p>Australian navy divers have suffered minor injuries from a sonar pulse by a Chinese navy vessel. Here’s what that means and how underwater sound can hurt divers.Christine Erbe, Director, Centre for Marine Science & Technology, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2162532023-11-08T13:37:55Z2023-11-08T13:37:55ZFresh water is a hidden challenge − and opportunity − for global supply chains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558062/original/file-20231107-15-72zegz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=65%2C5%2C3928%2C2646&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cargo ships wait at the entrance to the Panama Canal in late September.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cargo-ships-wait-at-the-entrance-of-the-panama-canal-at-news-photo/1687928473">Luis Acosta/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Reports of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/01/business/economy/panama-canal-drought-shipping.html">lengthy shipping delays</a> for vessels traveling through the Panama Canal this year have highlighted the critical but often overlooked role that fresh water plays across global supply chains. Drier than normal conditions in Panama, brought on by El Niño, have <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67281776">left the region drought-stricken</a> and water levels in the locks that feed the canal lower than normal. This has led to fewer ships being able to pass through the canal each day: only <a href="https://apnews.com/article/panama-canal-locks-reduction-31-ships-061ce1797cb9b0fb8ea7ab44ba04bdf1.html">31 ships</a> currently, compared with 36 to 38 under normal conditions. This means longer waits to move products through the canal and onto store shelves. </p>
<p>The slowdown at the Panama Canal shows how access to fresh water is key to the way goods are made and shipped, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/26/economy/panama-canal-supply-chain/index.html">affecting everything</a> from the price of groceries to retail forecasts for the upcoming holiday shopping season. As a <a href="https://harbert.auburn.edu/directory/dustin-cole.html">professor of supply chain management</a>, I think businesses would be wise to pay closer attention to this issue.</p>
<p>But first, you might ask: What does fresh water have to do with ocean freight? Plenty, it turns out.</p>
<h2>Water, water everywhere, and not enough to share</h2>
<p>The Panama Canal is a freshwater connection between two oceans – not a saltwater link, as one might assume. A series of locks on each side of the canal raise cargo freighters nearly 100 feet to human-made lakes that extend across Panama’s isthmus and lower them down to sea level on the other side. </p>
<p>Each crossing by a ship requires <a href="https://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/wha/panama/991206_faqs.html">52 million gallons</a> of fresh water from lakes, rivers and streams across this small country. This creates a trade-off between preserving water for local needs and using it to allow ships to traverse the canal. Less water allocated to the canal means fewer ships can pass through.</p>
<p>This isn’t an isolated phenomenon. Periodic low water levels in the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mississippi-river-careens-from-floods-to-low-water-threatening-barge-traffic-a6d5758d">Mississippi River</a> and the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/low-water-hampers-rhine-river-shipping-germany-2023-06-19/">Rhine River</a> in Germany have impeded barge traffic for years, disrupting supply chains while stoking debate about how to divide limited amounts of fresh water. Recent plans by communities in northern Colorado to <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10092023/colorado-river-upstream-use-it-before-they-lose-it-2/">build their own reservoirs</a> on tributaries of the Colorado River highlight questions about who owns access to local waterways and how this resource is governed.</p>
<h2>An ancient challenge</h2>
<p>The need to manage water resources isn’t new, with complex water management systems <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/roman-aqueducts/">dating back to the Roman Empire</a> and <a href="https://eal.isas.illinois.edu/projects/ancient-water-management/">even earlier</a>. Humankind has made great progress on water management over the centuries, but in recent years the issue has often taken a back seat to other pressing environmental concerns such as global warming. </p>
<p>Water management is complicated by the fact that businesses and communities sometimes find themselves in conflict: Businesses want to use water for their operations, while communities want to preserve water supplies to ensure that residents’ basic needs are met. At the same time, communities also need the jobs and services that businesses provide. Examples such as the Panama Canal highlight this tension.</p>
<p>Balancing these seemingly contrary needs calls for a deeper look into how much water is used in the making of products people buy and use every day.</p>
<p>As my colleagues and I show in a recent journal article, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13923">water is an important component</a> of almost everything people buy. For example, roughly <a href="https://interestingengineering.com/science/industrial-activity-is-draining-the-world-of-fresh-water">2,600 gallons of water</a> goes into making the fabric for a single pair of jeans. From growing cotton for the fibers needed to manufacturing the denim and getting those jeans onto shelves at The Gap, more and more water is embedded into each pair as it moves through the supply chain. </p>
<p>Essentially, businesses use water to transport water embedded in virtually all products they sell. This is why businesses have more than purely altruistic reasons to address water-related problems: It isn’t just good for society but also their own operations. A lack of water can hamper production and disrupt the supply chains that businesses rely on.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Inside the world’s largest cargo shipping bottleneck. | WSJ.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Solutions for businesses</h2>
<p>There are a number of ways in which businesses can improve their water management to reduce their own consumption – and costs – while limiting their exposure to water risks.</p>
<p>First, companies should realize that not everything requires clean water. Wastewater from one process can be used for another that doesn’t require clean water. Similarly, not every process pollutes water, so reuse is easy for wastewater resulting from those processes, such as water used for cooling.</p>
<p>Second, firms can share wastewater between facilities for reuse, a concept called <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/industrial-ecology#">industrial ecology</a>. For example, nutrient-rich water from food production can be used for farm irrigation rather than being discharged.</p>
<p>And third, since water is an excellent medium for heat transfer, rather than trying to cool one area and heat another, companies can connect the systems. For example, global aluminum giant Novelis is deploying hot water used in the casting process at one of its plants in Europe to <a href="https://www.novelis.com/district-heating-with-casting-water/">heat a neighboring building</a>.</p>
<p>Opportunities abound for improving management of fresh water – one of our most precious resources. While stronger government regulations and expanded reporting requirements will help, decisions by businesses themselves can move that needle even more.</p>
<p>For those who do, their standing in the communities in which they operate will surely benefit – as will their bottom lines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216253/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dustin Cole does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Smart water management isn’t just good for the earth. It’s good for business.Dustin Cole, Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management, Auburn UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136182023-11-07T17:24:43Z2023-11-07T17:24:43ZOvercoming the climate crisis with trade-based strategies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557599/original/file-20231105-27-uw7cz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2048%2C1358&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A container ships docked in Freeport, Grand Bahama Island in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Corey Seeman/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global warming is making <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf">weather patterns more extreme</a> and <a href="https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2022/103/article-A001-en.xml">increasing inequalities</a> across regions. However, economic growth is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-trade-regulations-may-be-opening-up-a-new-era-of-sustainable-growth-in-the-global-south-182070">still possible</a>, with economies showing a range of responses to the impacts of global heating.</p>
<p>Recently, Martina Bozzola, Fabio Santeramo and I joined together to understand whether the climate crisis is creating new trading patterns. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008221">Our research</a> concludes that international trade may serve as an adaptation strategy to climate change.</p>
<p>Production shifts induced by the changing climate may favour both the domestic and international markets depending on how interconnections across the globe facilitate the movement of goods. Taking into account conditions such as the geographical distance or the size of economies, the value of the exchange in goods between two trading partners is as large as their climatic conditions differ. Specifically, for an increase of 1 degree Celsius in the gap between the mean temperatures of two countries, the trade between them is expected to grow by 38% on average.</p>
<p>For example, between 1996 and 2015, the agricultural and food-related trade between India and Indonesia amounted to an average of 215 million dollars each year for the period. Indonesia is about 2 degrees Celsius warmer than India, and the effect of having a 1 degree Celsius larger difference in temperatures between the two countries would generate an average trade increase between them quantifiable in 82 million dollars per year.</p>
<h2>Changes in temperatures leading to new shipping routes</h2>
<p>The greater the temperature difference across countries, the tighter their commercial relationships get. In absolute terms, trade tends to increase more substantially for routes in the northern hemisphere, particularly when the European Union and the United States are involved: the intra-EU shipping routes are expected to increase annually by more than 1 billion dollars each. The monetary gain in the EU-US route is also relevant, rising from 611 to 893 million dollars more per year depending on the EU trading partner. While less marked, an increase in trade values is expected between countries in the southern hemisphere, including Latin America (for example, a rise of 552 million dollars between Argentina and Brazil) and Oceania (an increase of 573 million dollars between Australia and New Zealand).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Top 20 trade routes most affected by increase in the difference between countries' temperatures" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553250/original/file-20231011-23-p4k7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top 20 trade routes most affected by increase in the difference between countries’ temperatures. Figures are in million dollars; the reference year is 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The difference in the magnitude of trade effects between Northern and Southern countries is likely due to the variation in both the countries’ climates and state of economic development. Most of northern countries are developed economies, whereas most of southern ones are developing or emerging. Northern (developed) countries tend to have a colder climate and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/twec.13256">higher trade values with respect to the southern</a> (developing) countries. Under the same increase in temperature differences, a higher level of economic development may explain the larger gains in monetary terms. </p>
<p>It should be kept in mind, however, that the strength of seasonality varies significantly across the globe, with seasons being more homogenous around the equator. Differences in temperatures tend to increase the value of agricultural and food products traded between lower-latitude countries, such as China, and higher-latitude countries, such as the EU. According to the data from Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/agrifood-china_en.pdf">China is both a top origin and a top destination for the EU</a>. On average, China is 6 degrees Celsius colder than the EU trading partners for the period between 1996 and 2015. Consistent with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008221">our results</a>, such a difference would increase trade between the EU and China. Similar to other central Asian countries that traditionally suffered from a temperature penalty, China would benefit of an improved agricultural productivity with warmer temperatures.</p>
<h2>Strategies to survive in a warmer environment</h2>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/joeg/article-abstract/21/4/487/6384781">Climate change has a range of impacts across space</a>, with some countries experiencing losses or gains more than others. Overall, changes in climatic conditions and increasing differences in the temperatures of countries contributes to change the economic geography and shape sectoral specialisations. </p>
<p>Countries shifting their specialisation is a form of adaptation that depends, among other, on their ability to trade with partners in other regions of the world. Developing trading partners with different specialisations would result in a potentially beneficial adaptation strategy to climate change.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><em>Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the AXA Research Fund has supported nearly 700 projects around the world conducted by researchers in 38 countries. To learn more, visit the site of the AXA Research Fund or follow on Twitter @AXAResearchFund.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>As global warming accelerates, a new study indicates that new trading patterns could develop as an adaptation strategy.Emilia Lamonaca, AXA Research Fellow, Università di FoggiaFabio Gaetano Santeramo, Associate Professor, Università di FoggiaMartina Bozzola, Associate professor, School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060152023-11-06T07:55:06Z2023-11-06T07:55:06ZEnergy prices: shipping hold-ups made the 2022 spike worse – and could do so again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557443/original/file-20231103-17-p6vlng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ukraine war has made the EU much more dependent on liquefied gas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-carrier-port-ship-harbor-dawn-1024510150">Wojcieck Wrzesien</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Germany and some other EU countries are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-builds-up-lng-import-terminals-2023-10-18/">hastily setting up</a> new floating gas terminals at their ports to help cope with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-winter-energy-crunch-in-europe-looks-a-distinct-possibility-212269">severe reduction</a> in natural gas exports from Russian pipelines since the Ukraine war started nearly two years ago. To make up the shortfall, they have been buying more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other countries, including the <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/31017/eu-lng-and-pipeline-natural-gas-imports-by-country/">US and Qatar</a>.</p>
<p>Adding extra floating terminals is the fastest way to increase capacity. They are required to convert the liquid gas into gaseous form so that it can be transmitted through the pipeline network to wherever it’s required. The <a href="https://giignl.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GIIGNL-2023-Annual-Report-July20.pdf">EU’s import capacity</a> for LNG has already been increased by nearly a quarter to just over 200 billion cubic metres per annum (bcma) since the start of 2022, and is due to go up by about another 20bcma over the winter, most of it added in Germany. </p>
<p>The aim is to avoid a repeat of last winter, when a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/how-to-avoid-gas-shortages-in-the-european-union-in-2023/baseline-european-union-gas-demand-and-supply-in-2023">60% surge</a> in EU demand for LNG led to a spike in energy prices that peaked at <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas#:%7E:text=TTF%20Gas%20decreased%2029.94%20EUR,345%20in%20March%20of%202022.">over ten times</a> their usual levels. This was accompanied by port congestion problems from the increased number of LNG carriers, some of which were delayed in unloading as a result. </p>
<h2>Quantifying the cost</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4464776">recent research</a>, we’ve been looking at how much these congestion problems affected energy prices. It’s well known that port delays of any kind are expensive: between May and November 2021 in the US alone, a combination of port congestion and a shortage of shipping containers reduced exports to the tune of <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeecolet/v_3a213_3ay_3a2022_3ai_3ac_3as0165176522000659.htm">US$15.7 billion (£13 billion)</a> (it’s not known how much was caused by one or the other). When this happens, it forces companies to charge more on their products to protect their earnings, meaning prices go up. </p>
<p>With LNG carriers, there’s an additional problem. They can’t just sit in a port waiting to deposit their cargoes because the instability of LNG makes it dangerous for them to be stationary for more than <a href="https://unece.org/DAM/trans/doc/2011/wp29grpe/LNG_TF-02-06e.pdf">five days</a>. At that point, they have to either start releasing gas into the atmosphere or burn fuel by moving around in the sea while they wait for a berth, both of which cost more money. </p>
<p>Our port congestion index below gives an indication of how LNG carriers were affected in the EU in 2022. Our data looks at the past five years, and you can actually see that there was a larger spike in general port congestion in 2020 caused by anti-COVID measures. It then eased after the first pandemic wave, only to increase again at the beginning of 2022 when the EU started increasing LNG imports.</p>
<p><strong>EU port congestion index for LNG vessels</strong></p>
<p>To calculate how the 2022 congestion affected energy prices, we used mathematical modelling known as econometrics. It revealed that 10% of the energy inflation in the EU was the result of port congestion. In other words, with the <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas">average cost of gas</a> in Europe rising from circa €20 (£17.50) per megawatt hour (MWhr) before the pandemic to more like €100/MWhr in 2022, it means that about €8 can be attributed to congestion. </p>
<p><strong>EU gas prices (€/MWhr)</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing the EU gas price" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Based on the benchmark Dutch TTF futures price.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas">Trading Economics</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This demonstrates how being at the mercy of the world LNG market was made worse by congestion caused by the lack of import capacity. Overall, we found that a 10% increase in the time that LNG vessels delay to berth at EU ports increased gas prices by 1%.</p>
<p>Notably, one consequence was that the EU had to import a lot more gas from the UK, which has the second highest LNG capacity in the region besides Spain. The UK <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1182228/DUKES_2023_Chapter_4_Gas.pdf">near-doubled</a> its imports of the fuel to pipe it to the European mainland. </p>
<h2>The coming months</h2>
<p>This winter, EU demand for LNG is expected to be <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/key-takeaways-europe-gas-power-markets-short-term-outlook-2023/#form">slightly higher</a> than last year, even assuming <a href="https://bnn.network/breaking-news/climate-environment/el-ninos-impact-winter-2023-2024-predicted-to-witness-lower-snowfall-in-europe/">that projections</a> of another mild winter prove accurate. On the plus side, EU gas storage capacity is <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/100323-eu-gas-storage-fullness-surpasses-202223-winter-peak-gie#:%7E:text=The%20EU's%20gas%20storage%20facilities,the%20latest%20data%20published%20Oct.">virtually full</a> and the extra LNG import capacity will help significantly. </p>
<p>If the weather is much worse than anticipated, however, gas demand will be much higher, both in Europe and in northern Asia, which is the other main region that depends on large volumes of LNG. If so, port delays could again become an issue and potentially make a similar contribution to price spikes as we have seen in the past. </p>
<p>The EU’s current aim is to double its import capacity to 400bcma by 2030. There are <a href="https://www.lngindustry.com/special-reports/01112023/ieefa-europes-lng-capacity-buildout-outpaces-demand/#:%7E:text=LNG%20import%20capacity%20is%20set,with%20gas%20demand%20reduction%20policies.">some observers saying</a> this level of capacity is excessive when the goal is to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, but it certainly shows how far short current capacity is from where the EU wants it to be. No wonder when it makes such a difference to energy prices. </p>
<p>It sheds a light on the scale of the urgency around increasing capacity, as well as the need to build out alternative energy sources as far as possible to avoid similar problems in future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>LNG carriers were delayed in unloading in EU ports because there weren’t enough terminals to process the fuel.Stavros Karamperidis, Lecturer in Maritime Economics, University of PlymouthKonstantinos D. Melas, Postdoctoral Researcher in Supply Chain Finance, University of Western MacedoniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117972023-09-27T14:07:11Z2023-09-27T14:07:11ZGreen fuels in shipping face major challenges for 2050 net zero target<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543664/original/file-20230821-10846-935za2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5464%2C3067&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/smoke-exhaust-gas-emissions-cargo-lagre-1972988039">GreenOak/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ships carry around <a href="https://www.oecd.org/ocean/topics/ocean-shipping/#:%7E:text=The%20main%20transport%20mode%20for,comes%20with%20opportunities%20and%20challenges.">90% of traded goods</a> and emit about <a href="https://climate.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2016-11/marine_transport_en.pdf">3% of global CO₂</a>. The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN agency responsible for regulating shipping, recently set out plans for this industry to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Like their ancient forebears, modern vessels can be partially <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66543643">propelled by wind</a>. Indeed, a British cargo ship recently took its maiden voyage using sails made from the same material as wind turbines. </p>
<p>This can reduce a ship’s lifetime emissions, but wind’s ability to power the global shipping fleet is limited by <a href="https://www.ship-technology.com/features/featurewind-propulsion-an-old-concept-with-a-modern-edge-4720167/?cf-view">propeller systems</a>, which only provide <a href="https://www.wind-ship.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/English-version-IWSA-Open-Letter.pdf">up to 30%</a> of the energy vessels need to navigate – and even less in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801823010582">poor weather</a>. Wind propellers might <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801820306077">assist cargo ships</a> but are unlikely to fully replace fuel engines. What the shipping industry needs is to swap oil for <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/international-shipping">alternative green fuels</a>. </p>
<p>The shipping industry faces great challenges in making this shift to fuels such as ammonia, hydrogen and methanol. While a few companies like Maersk have begun to test them, converting the entire industry will require ramping up renewable energy, creating new globe-spanning fuel distribution networks, overhauling regulatory frameworks and building ship engines that can burn green fuels. </p>
<p>Some of these steps are underway, yet much more remains to be done.</p>
<h2>What makes shipping fuel green?</h2>
<p>Green hydrogen is produced by <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-electrolysis">splitting water</a> into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity generated by wind, solar or other renewable sources. Green ammonia is formed by combining nitrogen from the air and green hydrogen through a process called <a href="https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/low-carbon-energy-programme/green-ammonia/#:%7E:text=One%20way%20of%20making%20green,all%20powered%20by%20sustainable%20electricity.">Haber-Bosch</a>. </p>
<p>Green methanol is either generated by heating plant or other organic waste to create a gas that can then be converted into <a href="https://www.etipbioenergy.eu/images/ETIP_Bioenergy_Biomethanol_production_and_use_as_fuel.pdf">bio-methanol</a>, or by combining green hydrogen and captured CO₂ to make <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212982022004644">e-methanol</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a factory in a rural landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550034/original/file-20230925-17-8ox1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550034/original/file-20230925-17-8ox1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550034/original/file-20230925-17-8ox1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550034/original/file-20230925-17-8ox1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550034/original/file-20230925-17-8ox1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550034/original/file-20230925-17-8ox1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550034/original/file-20230925-17-8ox1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Polish factory producing methanol from corn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/methanol-ethanol-factory-polish-producer-produced-2000966612">Chawranphoto/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When assessing how green a fuel really is, not only are the emissions created by burning it in the ship’s engine important, but also, the emissions from extracting, producing, transporting and storing it. </p>
<p>This lifecycle assessment of emissions is called “<a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/Lifecycle-GHG---carbon-intensity-guidelines.aspx">well-to-wake</a>”. In the same way an electric car is not zero-carbon if its power is generated using fossil fuels, nor is a ship using ammonia or methanol produced by burning natural gas.</p>
<p>This assessment demands that the three fuels be generated using only renewable energy. That alone will require enormous investment. According to a <a href="https://www.ics-shipping.org/publication/fuelling-the-fourth-propulsion-revolution-an-opportunity-for-all-full-report/">study</a> undertaken by the International Chamber of Shipping in 2022, the shipping industry will require up to 3,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewable electricity a year, which almost equals the current global total of wind and solar electricity output (<a href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2023/">about 3,444 TWh</a>). </p>
<p>This output must be ramped up as other industries, such as steel and cement, will also need zero-emission energy <a href="https://zerotracker.net/">by 2050</a>. In fact, <a href="https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/news/the-scale-of-investment-needed-to-decarbonize-international-shipping">up to US$1.9 trillion</a> (£1.5 trillion) must be invested to fully decarbonise shipping, with over half of that needed to make green hydrogen, which is also <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360319923013393">essential</a> for producing green methanol and ammonia.</p>
<h2>Ships with compatible engines needed…</h2>
<p>Vessels that run on oil and diesel cannot simply switch to burning green fuels. The world’s fleet of around <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/shipping-fleet-statistics-2022/shipping-fleet-statistics-2022">61,000 ships</a> will need to be upgraded or replaced before 2050.</p>
<p>Retrofitting can allow existing vessels to run on methanol and ammonia, but it costs <a href="https://www.dnv.com/expert-story/maritime-impact/challenging-road-ahead-for-retrofitting-to-dual-fuel-engine.html?utm_campaign=MA_23Q2_GLOB_ART_Ind_492_Paper%2520with%2520MAN%2520conversion%2520to%2520dual%2520fuel&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua">between US$5 million and US$15 million</a> a ship depending on the fuel. Older vessels are likely to reach the <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/GETR/2012/GETR_Chapter1.8.pdf">end of their service</a> before this investment is paid off and the onerous cost is the same even for smaller ships.</p>
<p>Ships capable of burning both methanol and methane are already being ordered by container shipping lines such as Maersk, Evergreen, CMA CGM and COSCO. Maersk has received its first dual-fuel vessel which burns green methanol and fuel oil, and <a href="https://www.offshore-energy.biz/worlds-first-green-methanol-powered-containership-docks-in-egypt/">sailed</a> from South Korea to Denmark with cargo in August 2023. </p>
<p>The first <a href="https://www.offshore-energy.biz/worlds-first-ammonia-ready-vessel-delivered/">ammonia-ready vessel</a>, Kriti Future, is already sailing the ocean, though it isn’t burning ammonia yet. Vessels powered by hydrogen fuel cells lag behind the other two fuels, yet MSC cruises have ordered two <a href="https://energynews.biz/cruise-industry-incorporates-fuel-cells-to-reduce-emissions-of-its-floating-hotels/">hydrogen-ready vessels</a> for 2028.</p>
<p>While these vessel orders inspire a sense of optimism about decarbonisation, they only account for a very small percentage of the global fleet.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-4mCUUROoj4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>…and so are safety regulations</h2>
<p>A lack of safety regulations is partly responsible for the slow uptake of alternative fuels. </p>
<p>Although the International Energy Agency predicts green ammonia will be the most widely used fuel in <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/deebef5d-0c34-4539-9d0c-10b13d840027/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf">2050</a>, shipping companies have placed more orders for <a href="https://www.dnv.com/expert-story/maritime-impact/Methanol-as-fuel-heads-for-the-mainstream-in-shipping.html">vessels</a> powered by methanol and methane. This is partly because the IMO has issued safety regulations for methanol as fuel, but not ammonia and hydrogen, which has cast doubt on their future among shipowners.</p>
<p>For green fuels to be widely adopted they must be at ports worldwide, but none are widely available. There are about <a href="https://www.methanol.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Marine_Methanol_Report_Methanol_Institute_May_2023.pdf">120 ports</a> capable of storing and delivering methanol, but <a href="https://grist.org/energy/green-methanol-maersk-shipping-fuel/">not enough green methanol</a>. Where this fuel is available it’s often secured by <a href="https://www.offshore-energy.biz/maersk-cma-cgm-exploring-green-methanol-bunkering-potential-in-australia/">private arrangements</a> between a few large shipowners and methanol producers. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.methanol.org/renewable/">Green Methanol Institute</a>, about 0.7 million tonnes of green methanol could be produced globally by the end of 2023. Production capacity is projected to reach 8 million tonnes a year by 2027. But the global shipping industry requires 550 million tonnes by <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/green-methanol-makes-a-splash-in-quest-for-net-zero-shipping/">2050</a> to replace oil.</p>
<p>There may not be enough <a href="https://www.concawe.eu/wp-content/uploads/Feedstocks-1.pdf">farm and food waste</a> to decarbonise all sectors of the global economy. And so the production of fuels from renewable electricity must increase.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large ship in port seen from the surface of an oil pipeline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550036/original/file-20230925-21-zmpuc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550036/original/file-20230925-21-zmpuc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550036/original/file-20230925-21-zmpuc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550036/original/file-20230925-21-zmpuc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550036/original/file-20230925-21-zmpuc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550036/original/file-20230925-21-zmpuc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550036/original/file-20230925-21-zmpuc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ports worldwide must change fast to accommodate new fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oil-pipeline-petroleum-transport-ship-tanker-2298027985">FOTOGRIN/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lots to build</h2>
<p>Rolling out green fuels will also require building pipelines, storage tanks and port refuelling stations. Green hydrogen in particular, the key ingredient for other fuels, will need a large investment as it must be stored in special containers at <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-storage">around −253°C</a>.</p>
<p>The shipping industry has not decided on its <a href="https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/content/2023/04/the-shipping-industrys-fuel-choices-on-the-path-to-net-zero_final.pdf">fuel of the future</a>. But more than one is necessary considering the limited supply of renewable energy.</p>
<p>The good news is that decarbonising international shipping will benefit more than this vital industry by expediting renewable energy investments and helping <a href="https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/energy-utilities-resources/future-energy/green-hydrogen-cost.html">sun-rich</a> emerging economies flourish with the chance to make lots of cost-effective green hydrogen.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Shipping companies are turning the tanker too slowly to decarbonise on time.Gokcay Balci, Assistant Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain, University of BradfordEbru Surucu-Balci, Assistant Professor in Circular Supply Chains, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138722023-09-27T13:57:00Z2023-09-27T13:57:00ZSomali piracy, once an unsolvable security threat, has almost completely stopped. Here’s why<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/somali-piracy-once-an-unsolvable-security-threat-has-almost-completely-stopped-heres-why-213872&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p>In 2011, pirates carried out <a href="https://eunavfor.eu/key-facts-and-figures">212 attacks</a> in a vast area spanning Somali waters, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, actions that the World Bank said cost the world economy <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/6b9570fe-2f52-546f-af4b-605e4ebf04e6">US$18 billion a year</a>.</p>
<p>Armed pirates hijacked ships as far away as 1,000 nautical miles from the Somali coast. They held the ships and crews for ransom. The World Bank estimates that Somali pirates received <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialsector/publication/pirate-trails-tracking-the-illicit-financial-flows-from-piracy-off-the-horn-of-africa">more than US$400 million</a> in ransom payments between 2005 and 2012.</p>
<p>The piracy problem appeared unsolvable. Anti-piracy naval missions undertaken by the world’s most formidable navies, and self-protection measures adopted by the shipping industry, didn’t seem to work. It was, therefore, generally held that the solution lay ashore: major state-building in Somalia to remove the root causes of piracy. </p>
<p>The only problem was that no one was willing to undertake such a mission in the wake of America’s failures in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/11/23/142699506/u-s-easing-out-of-nation-building-business">Afghanistan and Iraq</a>. </p>
<p>And then there was an astonishing turnaround. The number of attacks fell to 10 in 2012 and only <a href="https://eunavfor.eu/key-facts-and-figures">two ships were hijacked</a> between 2013 and 2023. </p>
<p>For three decades, I have conducted research on international diplomacy, military strategy, use of force and peacebuilding. Together with a colleague specialising in military strategy, I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2023.2227356">analysed the Somali piracy case</a>. Academics and practitioners agree that four factors interacted to stop the pirates:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>the conduct and coordination of several anti-piracy naval operations by the world’s most capable navies, including all <a href="https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members">five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council</a>: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China</p></li>
<li><p>the implementation of costly self-protection measures, not least the use of armed guards, by most flag states and shipping owners</p></li>
<li><p>development of a comprehensive legal toolbox enabling pirate prosecution and imprisonment</p></li>
<li><p>regional capacity-building making it possible to imprison pirates regionally and in Somalia.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lift-for-maritime-sector-in-kenya-and-djibouti-after-fall-in-piracy-128073">Lift for maritime sector in Kenya and Djibouti after fall in piracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The surprising thing is not that the four measures on their own proved sufficient to stop Somali piracy. What makes the Somali case special is the international community’s ability to agree to them and pay for their implementation. </p>
<p>The Somali case is important because it’s one of the few success stories in recent years where the use of limited force contributed to a sustainable outcome. Further, Somali pirates were stopped even though the conditions onshore in Somalia didn’t improve in any major way.</p>
<h2>Collective action</h2>
<p>Theoretically, the international community’s collective effort shouldn’t have happened because safety from piracy is a <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/Global-Public-Goods-Chin-basics">costly public good</a>. </p>
<p>This means that it’s very expensive to provide but no one can be prevented from enjoying it once it has been produced. The result is a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/collective-action">collective action problem</a> that’s rarely overcome in international politics. Most actors prefer to free-ride rather than contribute to the production of the public good. </p>
<p>With respect to Somali piracy, all states and shipping owners had an incentive to leave it to others to solve the problem for them. The implementation of the four factors was very expensive for the states contributing to naval operations, and for shipowners who had to pay for self-protection measures, including hiring of armed guards.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2023.2227356">Our study</a> sought to understand how and why the collective action problem was overcome. The hope was to learn something that could help with overcoming similar problems in the future.</p>
<h2>What worked</h2>
<p>We found that three factors explain why the amount of free-riding was minimised in the Somali case. </p>
<p>The first was that the Somali pirates attacked ships belonging to all five permanent members of the UN Security Council and all the major shipping companies. This induced France to take the lead in military action against the pirates. The US subsequently led with respect to formulating a comprehensive strategy to implement the four factors presented earlier. </p>
<p>The involvement of European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) in the anti-piracy naval operations made it hard for member states not to contribute. A total of 18 member states contributed ships. China and Russia supported the American-led strategy and launched their own naval operations because their ships were attacked as well.</p>
<p>Second, the US established an institution, the Contact Group on Somali Piracy, tailor-made to formulate and implement a broad anti-piracy strategy. The US handpicked who would lead various working groups so that it contained all the actors – state and non-state – that were required to implement the necessary measures. These actors provided the expertise and the material resources required to implement the four factors presented earlier.</p>
<p>Third, the Somalia federal government and federal member states cooperated closely with anti-piracy efforts. They allowed the use of force against pirates in its national waters and on land. Somali authorities also cooperated with respect to the construction and running of pirate prisons paid for by international donors. This made it possible to overcome the piracy problem without engaging in the major state-building operation that had generally been viewed as a necessary condition for success when the piracy problem peaked in 2011.</p>
<h2>Shared interests</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, this success story will be hard to replicate. Somali piracy aligned great power, as well as private sector, regional and local state interests to an unusual degree. This is, for example, not the case in the <a href="https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2023-06/gulf-of-guinea-piracy-2.php">Gulf of Guinea</a> off the west African coast. Here, local states are less cooperative with respect to tackling piracy than Somali governmental actors were. </p>
<p>It’s also not the case with respect to tackling the <a href="https://africacenter.org/in-focus/africa-crisis-coups/">coups in west Africa</a>, where Russia, the three western members of the UN Security Council and regional states have conflicting interests. </p>
<p>It was the high degree of shared interests among the many actors involved that made the Somali anti-piracy campaign so effective.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Viggo Jakobsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The success of the Somali case illustrates what a high degree of shared interests among international actors can achieve.Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Associate professor, Royal Danish Defence CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2107792023-08-02T19:55:27Z2023-08-02T19:55:27ZB.C. labour dispute: It’s time for an industrial inquiry commission into ports and automation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540889/original/file-20230802-19-98ffbc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C379%2C6120%2C3940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Striking International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada workers march to a rally as gantry cranes used to load and unload cargo containers from ships sit idle at port, in Vancouver, on July 6, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/bc-labour-dispute-its-time-for-an-industrial-inquiry-commission-into-ports-and-automation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>A <a href="https://www.bcmeanegotiations.com/joint-ilwu-canada-and-bcmea-news-release/">new tentative agreement was reached</a> on July 30 between the two groups involved in a labour dispute affecting British Columbia ports with the help of the Industrial Relations Board.</p>
<p>At the beginning of July, about 7,400 port workers went on strike for 13 days <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-port-workers-resume-strike-1.6910572">over issues including automation</a>, outside contracting and the increasing cost of living.</p>
<p>This new deal — between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada (ILWU) and the B.C. Maritime Employers Association — comes <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9866982/bc-port-strike-tentative-deal-oregan/">after union members rejected a previous deal on July 28</a>.</p>
<p>By initially rejecting the first contract, ILWU members implied that a generous wage and benefit package — which employers had agreed to pay — was not enough to address their concerns about potential job losses and workplace changes.</p>
<p>This isn’t a one-sided problem; under <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/atlantic-canada-opportunities/services/researchstudies2.html">current workplace arrangements and labour market pressures</a>, port operators are unlikely to attract and retain workers with the skills required to implement the coming automation.</p>
<p>With the prospect that the <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2023/02/16/Union-Fears-Robots-Will-Kill-Jobs-Port-Expansion/">new container terminal at Roberts Bank port</a>, south of Vancouver, will be the first fully automated terminal in B.C., this issue is more important than ever.</p>
<h2>Canada Labour Code</h2>
<p>After the initial deal between the union and the employer’s association was rejected, Labour Minister Seamus O'Regan <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/news/2023/07/statement-by-minister-oregan0.html">asked the Canada Industrial Relations Board</a> whether a negotiated resolution was still possible, and to impose a new collective agreement or binding arbitration if it was not. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9811240/alberta-minister-back-to-work-legislation-bc-port-strike/">many people demanding back-to-work legislation</a>, O'Regan followed the <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/l-2/">Canada Labour Code</a>, which encourages free collective bargaining and advocates for the constructive settlement of disputes.</p>
<p>In support of the idea that negotiated settlements are best, the code provides the minister with tools to prod, push or force parties in an industrial dispute to find a deal they can both live with.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man in a blazer and newsboy cap speaks to a crowd of people waving flags and holding signs that say ILWU CANADA" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540525/original/file-20230801-15-z5grx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Willie Adams, International President of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, speaks at a strike rally in Vancouver, on July 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ethan Cairns</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drawing on my <a href="http://www.sfu.ca/%7Epvhall/#seaports_logistics_and_port_cities">research on B.C. ports</a>, I’d encourage the minister to make use of one more tool provided in the code: appoint an industrial inquiry commission on port skills and automation.</p>
<h2>Dockworkers and new technologies</h2>
<p>To understand the current dispute, we need to overturn <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691170817/the-box">the myth that west coast unionized dockworkers</a> have refused to accept new cargo handling technologies.</p>
<p>Since the 1960s, ports on the west coast of North America have benefited enormously from mechanization and modernization agreements, <a href="https://www.bcmeanegotiations.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Collective-Agreement-April-1-2018-to-March-31-2023.pdf">now enshrined in various collective agreements</a>. </p>
<p>In exchange for giving employers the freedom to implement technological changes — which often displace labour — employees secured a share of the resulting productivity gains in some form of compensation.</p>
<p>In the United States, this takes the form of a <a href="https://digicoll.lib.berkeley.edu/record/72012">minimum earnings guarantee</a>; in B.C. ports, full members <a href="https://summit.sfu.ca/_flysystem/fedora/sfu_migrate/3516/b14062914.pdf">receive a generous payout at retirement</a>.</p>
<p>But one result of a “jobs-for-income” agreement, in an industry where labour demand fluctuates, is a large pool of casual workers. As a result, <a href="https://www.bcmea.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BCMEA_AR2018-Digital-v4FA.pdf">not everyone working in B.C. ports is a full union member</a>: roughly two-fifths are members, one-fifth are casuals with benefits and two-fifths are casuals without benefits.</p>
<p>The prospect of being a casual employee for several years is not particularly attractive, least of all to a tradesperson or computer programmer with employment options elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Commissions have helped before</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Cargo cranes seen at a port" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540529/original/file-20230801-28-txabzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gantry cranes used to load and unload cargo ships sit idle at port in Vancouver, B.C., on July 4, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Industrial commissions have helped management and union find a path out of an impasse before — even if not everyone likes what they recommend. </p>
<p>One of the original clauses in the 1963 Mechanization and Modernization Agreement stated that Vancouver-bound containers had to be filled and emptied by ILWU members. </p>
<p>Against the wishes of many union members, the container clause was eliminated on the recommendation of the <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/978222691">1987 Weiler Commission</a> and <a href="https://ilwu500.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Gainshare.pdf">replaced by a pension funding arrangement</a> to ensure ILWU members shared the resulting gains.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/in-the-matter-of-the-canada-labour-code-part-i-industrial-relations-report-of-the-industrial-inquiry-commission-into-industrial-relations-at-west-coast-ports/oclc/461336129?page=citation">1995 Jamieson and Greyell Commission</a> strongly rejected the notion that port workers be denied the right to strike — as requested by some agricultural and business interests — but it did recommend the 72-hour strike/lockout notification period now included in the Canada Labour Code.</p>
<h2>Industrial inquiry commission</h2>
<p>A commission on port automation can share information, promote understanding and make recommendations. It would examine trends in <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/container-port-automation-impacts-and-implications">container terminal automation</a>, as well as technology trends in non-containerized and commodity-exporting terminals.</p>
<p>It can determine the nature and extent of the skills shortage in B.C. ports and look into the adequacy of existing recruitment, retention and training systems. And it can learn from the experiences of port workers, especially casual workers and skilled tradespersons.</p>
<p>We need a new agreement between employers and employees in the B.C. ports that will allow both sides to continue to enjoy the benefits of new workplace technologies. </p>
<p>Employers will only benefit from automation if they can train, recruit for and retain the new skills that will be required. Employees will only support automation if they see a future for themselves, their families and communities in the industry. </p>
<p>An industrial inquiry commission might help tackle this challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Hall receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, including funding to support research partnerships that involve the port union (<a href="http://www.sfu.ca/waterfront.html">http://www.sfu.ca/waterfront.html</a>) and shipping industry (<a href="https://greenshippingproject.com/">https://greenshippingproject.com/</a>).</span></em></p>We need a new agreement between employers and employees in the B.C. ports that will allow both sides to enjoy the benefits of new workplace technologies.Peter Hall, Professor of Urban Studies, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099542023-07-24T12:13:50Z2023-07-24T12:13:50ZGlobal shipping has a new climate strategy – it’s vague, obscure and almost noncommittal, but it may be pointing the industry in the right direction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537979/original/file-20230718-17-em1ayv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C5098%2C3403&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">International shipping accounts for about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/a-boat-carrying-cargo-with-cranes-for-lifting-up-c-royalty-free-image/83388218?phrase=+container+ship&adppopup=true">Richard Ross/The Image Book via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s largest shipping companies are starting to update their fleets for a greener future. Maersk received the <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/index.php/article/maersk-takes-delivery-of-world-s-first-methanol-fueled-boxship">world’s first dual-fuel methanol container ship</a> in July 2023, and <a href="https://www.manifoldtimes.com/news/dnv-orders-for-alternative-fuel-vessels-slows-down-in-march/">dozens more container ships</a> that can run on alternative fuels are currently on order.</p>
<p>The industry – responsible for <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/emissions-free-sailing-full-steam-ahead-ocean-going-shipping">about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>, more than Canada and Ireland combined – has reasons to act and to have some confidence in its multimillion-dollar investments.</p>
<p>On July 7, the 175 member countries of the <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/About/Pages/Default.aspx">International Maritime Organization</a>, a United Nations agency that regulates global shipping, agreed to <a href="https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Documents/Resolution%20MEPC.377(80).pdf">a new climate strategy</a> that includes reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions “by or around, i.e., close to, 2050.”</p>
<p>The strategy’s language is vague, obscure and almost noncommittal. But it points the industry toward a cleaner future. <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1813">New European Union rules</a> will also soon go into effect that will significantly raise costs for ships burning highly polluting sulfur fuel oil.</p>
<p>I spent several years working in the shipping industry and follow it <a href="https://haslam.utk.edu/people/profile/don-maier/">as a researcher and analyst</a>. Here’s what I see changing.</p>
<h2>Setting their own direction</h2>
<p>The new IMO strategy does not explicitly set a new fuel standard, but it seems to indicate that less reliance on cheap, environmentally harmful, heavy-sulfur fuel oil is the best direction, and possibly less use of low-sulfur fuel oil.</p>
<p>What the strategy does is set goals to reduce international shippings’ greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2030, compared with 2008 levels; by at least 70% by 2040; and to reach net-zero emissions around 2050. The IMO also commits to implement a greenhouse gas emissions-pricing mechanism – a <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-unveils-blueprint-for-collecting-future-carbon-tax">carbon levy</a> or tax – by 2027, and to develop a goal-based marine fuel standard. At this time, that’s the only direction the IMO has provided regarding the emissions-pricing mechanism.</p>
<p>While the new strategy may not have been as clear or restrictive as many people hoped, the IMO may be providing the maritime industry an opportunity to set the direction itself.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person runs across the top of a Maersk shipping container on a smaller container ship while more containers are loaded." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most of the big shippers’ fleets are less than 20 years old.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ParaguayEndofYear/a7f65eba36124890829d59be0f065dcf/photo">AP Photo/Jorge Saenz</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A number of large ship owners and operators have already built and placed orders for container ships with <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/sea-transport/this-common-chemical-could-help-shipping-giants-start-to-decarbonize">some sort of alternative fuel use</a>, primarily methanol or liquefied natural gas, and there is some <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-hydrogen-and-can-it-really-become-a-climate-change-solution-204513">interest in hydrogen</a>. LNG is still a fossil fuel, though it’s less polluting than traditional sulfur fuel oil. Methanol, however, can be made from either natural gas or renewable sources.</p>
<p>Maersk’s new dual-fuel vessel – to be powered in part by green methanol – is small and plans to operate in the Baltic Sea, but Maersk may be using this vessel as a prototype for <a href="https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/06/26/maersk-orders-six-methanol-powered-vessels">larger alternative-fuel containerships</a> expected to be delivered next year. Evergreen, also among the world’s larger shipping companies, has ordered <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/evergreen-orders-24-methanol-fueled-ships-at-a-cost-of-nearly-5-billion">24 dual-fueled methanol ships</a>.</p>
<p>Purchases like Maersk’s and Evergreen’s are an indication that the maritime industry will be moving in the direction of greener fuels. They also indicate that the industry is willing to follow the IMO’s focus on well-to-wake emissions, meaning not just emissions from ship operations but also from fuel production.</p>
<h2>Building a supply chain</h2>
<p>The other significant challenge faced by the maritime industry is having a sufficient supply chain available to support <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ship-fuel-cost-down-from-war-peak-but-green-fallout-looms">dual-fueled</a> vessels, which can operate on alternative fuels.</p>
<p>There are currently a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319923004354?via%3Dihub">limited number of ports worldwide</a> with the necessary infrastructure to provide alternative fuels. But, here again, simple economics suggests that if there is enough demand, supply should follow.</p>
<p><iframe id="u67O1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/u67O1/8/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>With Maersk, Evergreen and others preparing to operate more dual-fuel containerships, the industry is demonstrating demand so the green-methanol supply chain can develop, and hopefully soon. Japan recently launched its first <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/japan-s-first-dual-fuel-lng-bunker-ship-launched-to-expand-supply-network">dual-fueled LNG bunkering ship</a> – essentially a floating gas station – to develop the supply of LNG fuel.</p>
<h2>Not mandatory, but many countries will try</h2>
<p>The new IMO strategy has some big caveats: The goals are nonbinding, and the strategy explicitly encourages compliance when “national circumstances allow.” In other words, no nation-state will be under any legal obligation to comply.</p>
<p>The statement seems to have been included as a means to appear focused on achieving goals while placating some countries that may not be able or willing to meet the goals by 2030 or beyond.</p>
<p>It’s also unclear whether the “national circumstance” pertains to a physical nation-state, to flag registry – meaning where the ship is registered – or both. Many ships are <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/745686/EPRS_ATA(2023)745686_EN.pdf">registered in countries with weaker regulations</a>. Adding such language appears to say that the IMO is serious about emissions and understands that some countries may have significant challenges to meet the standards. It also gets around opposition to a carbon levy, or tax on emissions, which some delegates – <a href="https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/chinese-government-tries-to-block-carbon-levy-net-zero-pledge-at-imo">China for example</a> – adamantly opposed.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.shipmap.org" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: 10px; margin-top: 4px">Press the play button or zoom out and use the filters to see where different ship types travel. Created by <a target="_top" href="https://www.kiln.digital/">London-based data visualization studio Kiln</a> and the <a target="_top" href="http://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/energy">UCL Energy Institute</a><br><br></div>
<p>Many countries, such as the U.S., United Kingdom, Australia and those in the European Union, will work to meet the strategy, I believe. The EU is already launching its own carbon levy on shipping beginning in 2024.</p>
<h2>Who pays for the higher costs?</h2>
<p>One factor that the IMO, most analysts and environmentalists rarely discuss is the additional cost of using an alternative fuel.</p>
<p>By some estimates, green methanol costs three times as much as low-sulfur fuel oil. And low-sulfur fuel oil is more expensive than high-sulfur fuel oil. The maritime research company <a href="https://www.drewry.co.uk/news/news/drewry-urges-shippers-to-start-planning-for-decarbonisation-in-shipping-warns-of-up-to-14-billion-in-extra-costs">Drewry estimated</a> that switching to methanol on a well-to-wake basis would increase fuel costs by 350%, or equal to approximately an additional $1,000 for each 40-foot-long shipping container aboard. </p>
<p>Shipping lines will soon also face higher costs from the European Union if they don’t clean up their emissions. Starting in 2024, the EU Emissions Trading System will cover all cargo and passenger ship voyages in EU waters and ports involving over 5,000 gross tons, regardless of where the ship is registered. The costs to those with high emissions are expected to significantly increase the operating costs for the global shipping fleet. </p>
<p>Hecla Emissions Management, a consulting arm set up by Wilhelmsen Ship Management and Affinity Shipping, analyzed the three-year phase-in period for just the EU change and expects it to cost the shipping industry <a href="https://www.hecla-em.co/post/shipping-set-for-3-billion-plus-2024-eu-ets-bill">nearly $19 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Whether we like it or not, these additional costs will be born by the cargo owners, who will pass the costs along to their customers – and, ultimately, the consumer, meaning you and me.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Maier is affiliated with The International Association of Maritime Port Executives, the Containerization & Intermodal Institute, and the Intermodal Association of North America. </span></em></p>International shipping is a big contributor to climate change, and it doesn’t change quickly, but its companies are starting to invest in cleaner fuels.Don Maier, Associate Professor of Business, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.