tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/super-tuesday-2494/articlesSuper Tuesday – The Conversation2024-03-06T02:04:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250472024-03-06T02:04:33Z2024-03-06T02:04:33ZAfter Super Tuesday, exhausted Americans face 8 more months of presidential campaigning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579935/original/file-20240305-28-wuuee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1072%2C26%2C3342%2C2846&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Campaign volunteers set up signs encouraging people to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024Alabama/e953d3d110334cfea6a90b336231b74d/photo">AP Photo/Vasha Hunt</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Now that Super Tuesday is over and the <a href="https://apnews.com/live/super-tuesday-updates-results">Democratic and Republican nominees are all but officially chosen</a>, as everyone expected, voters can turn the page to the general election. </p>
<p>But they’re not excited about it, and they haven’t been for months.</p>
<p>A September 2023 Monmouth University poll showed <a href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_100223/">no more than 40% of Americans said they were “enthusiastic”</a> for either Biden or Trump to run again. That same month, the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/americans-dismal-views-of-the-nations-politics/">Pew Research Center</a> found that 65% of Americans were exhausted with the current state of American politics. In February 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/19/us/politics/trump-resistance-democrats-voters.html">The New York Times</a> said Democrats in particular were burned out by the seemingly endless avalanche of political crises.</p>
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<p>It is not surprising that a rematch of the 2020 election is failing to inspire excitement in the American people. Yet, as a political scientist who studies <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/citizens-of-the-world-9780197599389">citizen engagement</a> and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/feeling-their-pain-9780197696903">the public’s feelings</a> toward the candidates, I find these trends disturbing. It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise – it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy.</p>
<h2>There is another divide in politics</h2>
<p>Most discussions of the current state of the American electorate have understandably focused on political polarization. Democrats and Republicans often <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">express disdain for each other</a>, even when they don’t actually disagree on specific policies for the nation to pursue. </p>
<p>Some of this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/715072">disdain is rooted in identity</a>. For example, people who hold unfavorable attitudes toward African Americans, feminists and other groups associated with the Democratic Party tend to identify more strongly with the Republican Party. People with unfavorable attitudes toward stereotypically Republican groups such as evangelicals and gun owners tend to be stronger Democrats.</p>
<p>From this perspective, Democrats and Republicans are pack animals motivated to protect their group and their group’s interests.</p>
<p>Often overlooked, however, is how the vitriol of modern American politics fuels what political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan call “<a href="https://www.otherdividebook.com/">The Other Divide</a>.” This is the divide between people who engage in politics and those who don’t.</p>
<p>In short, a significant number of Americans don’t talk about politics, whether because they are not interested in politics or are turned off by the negativity. It’s a gradual trend dating back to the 1980s and 1990s that has continued for decades now. This weakens the fabric of democracy, because the only voices that are heard online and in the media are from those who are most willing to speak up. They tend to be the most dissonant and extreme views.</p>
<p>The public discussion about the country’s past, present and future therefore leaves out a wide range of people’s voices. What they might say is hard to know, specifically because they don’t engage in political discussions.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An adult stands with a child at a voting booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Young people – those of voting age at least – are less likely to see voting as important.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024/1ee5523ecf7441eca7c37e430511fdb0/photo">AP Photo/Michael Dwyer</a></span>
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<h2>Young voter disengagement</h2>
<p>Especially troubling to me is the political disillusionment expressed by young people, who are the most likely group in the country to avoid identifying themselves <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/15/voters-declare-independence-political-parties">as members of one party or the other</a>. People who identify themselves as independents – especially if they don’t lean toward one party or the other – are also likely to lack interest in voting.</p>
<p>Having come of age during an era of high polarization, younger people are less likely to idealize politics and the right to vote. In prior research, my colleagues and I found that younger people worldwide were just as interested in politics as older citizens but were <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/citizens-of-the-world-9780197599389?cc=us&lang=en&">less likely to view voting as a civic duty</a>. Protesting or joining an organization offers social benefits to young people – an opportunity to feel like they are part of something bigger. Voting, by contrast, is perceived as a more solitary act. </p>
<p>If younger American voters aren’t excited about the choices on the ballot, they may be more likely not to vote at all.</p>
<p>In a recent survey I conducted in collaboration with <a href="https://ignitenational.org/gen-z-research">IGNITE National</a>, an organization seeking to bolster young women’s engagement in the political process, we asked Gen Z Americans, adults born after 1996, what drove their disillusionment with American politics. Consistently, Gen Z respondents noted that the candidates appearing on the ballot <a href="https://8226836.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/8226836/Gen%20Z%20Voting%20%26%20Political%20Engagement%20Report%202023.pdf">did not look like them</a>, contributing to their feeling of detachment from the political process. </p>
<p>Barack Obama’s race made 2008 a historic election. Hillary Clinton’s gender made 2016 a historic contest as well. By contrast, 2024 features the <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/arts-culture/3744771-here-are-the-oldest-us-presidents-to-ever-hold-office/">two oldest white men</a> to ever seek the presidency, vying for second terms in office.</p>
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<h2>Burnout’s effects on democracy</h2>
<p>Americans have many demands on their time. Between work, family and other activities, many struggle to watch or read the news, fact check what they see on social media or engage in productive political discussions. As a result, most of the American public <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300072754/what-americans-know-about-politics-and-why-it-matters/">is largely unaware of key aspects of important issues</a>, and does not pay attention to the parties’ stances on those issues. </p>
<p>This lack of engagement is dangerous for democracy. Voters who cannot evaluate the merits of contrasting policy positions, or who cannot accurately assign blame and give credit for the state of the American economy, will ultimately fall back on cheap cues such as partisanship to make their choices. </p>
<p>Or they may abstain from politics altogether.</p>
<p>The campaign season offers an opportunity for voters who may be open to persuasion to engage in the political process for a short period of time, become sufficiently informed and make their voices heard. Though there are flaws in the many processes of political campaigning, media coverage and community involvement, the bottom line is simple: Deliberative democracy requires an American public that is willing to deliberate. </p>
<p>If Americans are too burned out to engage enthusiastically and provide feedback to political leaders, then there is little hope that any government could truly reflect the will of the people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared McDonald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise − it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy.Jared McDonald, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1326492020-03-11T12:20:08Z2020-03-11T12:20:08ZWhy so few young Americans vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319133/original/file-20200306-118951-f4uzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1048%2C5167%2C2559&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Not all of Bernie Sanders' young supporters are showing up at the polls.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Bernie-Sanders/d3c4c29a32b24c72be94d55489fd3e42/6/0">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States has one of the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/making-young-voters-converting-civic-attitudes-civic-action?format=PB">lowest rates of youth voter turnout in the world</a>. The <a href="https://cses.org/">gap between 18- to 29-year-olds and those over 60</a>, a common measuring stick, is more than twice as large here than it is in comparable democracies, like Canada and Germany.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/03/04/the-youth-vote-emerges-as-a-problem-for-the-democrats/">early evidence</a> from the 2020 presidential race suggests that isn’t going to change this year. Youth turnout in the first states to hold primaries and caucuses has ranged from <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/mar/04/closer-look-turnout-young-voters-and-key-bernie-sa/">10% in Alabama</a> to <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/county-county-young-people-prove-pivotal-iowa-caucus">24% in Iowa</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/mar/04/closer-look-turnout-young-voters-and-key-bernie-sa/">Fewer than 1 in 5</a> young people cast ballots in all Super Tuesday states. Compared to primaries and caucuses in the past, <a href="https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1235320286314102784">fewer young people are voting in 2020</a>, while older citizens are voting at higher rates. Overall, the share of Americans who vote appears <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/4/21164518/super-tuesday-results-voter-turnout">to be rising</a>. </p>
<p>Recent research indicates that these patterns have fundamentally shaped the nomination process. Vermont Sen. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data">Bernie Sanders</a>, a progressive candidate who draws <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/super-tuesday-2020">high levels of support from young people</a>, is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/03/06/812486517/bernie-sanders-call-for-young-voters-isn-t-working-out-the-way-he-planned">not doing as well as he expected</a> because <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/mar/04/closer-look-turnout-young-voters-and-key-bernie-sa/">not enough of his young supporters</a> are turning out at the polls.</p>
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<h2>Continuing a long-running pattern</h2>
<p>So, why don’t more young people vote? And what might solve this problem?</p>
<p>In our new book, “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/making-young-voters/D8A982E9E7C9DAAAE3DF9685F1DFC037">Making Young Voters: Converting Civic Attitudes into Civic Action</a>”, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=znMJcvwAAAAJ&hl=en">D. Sunshine Hillygus</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dGUCrakAAAAJ&hl=en">I</a> tried to answer those questions.</p>
<p>The fact that few young people vote is nothing new. Historically, about <a href="http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present">55% of Americans have voted</a> in presidential elections. Youth voting levels have been much lower than that for decades. In U.S. presidential elections, about 70% of voters 60 and up have turned out – which is nearly <a href="http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics">three times the rate</a> of Americans between 18 and 29.</p>
<p>This <a href="http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics">pattern hasn’t changed much in recent elections</a>. Even in 2018 – a year when <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/2018-midterms-youth-voter-turnout-still-room-for-growth">more young people voted in a midterm election</a> than in decades – <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html">a full 7 in 10 young voters failed to cast a ballot</a> – versus only 4 in 10 of those eligible to vote overall. The <a href="http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics">gap between voters under and over 30 barely budged</a>.</p>
<p>There is good scientific evidence that if young people turned out at the same rates as older citizens, American democracy would be transformed. Elected officials would be more likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00357.x">pay attention to the policy areas that young people care about</a>, like climate change or public education; the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00012055">people elected to public office</a> would look more like the people they represent; and <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3042645%22%22">the set of public policies implemented</a> would fundamentally change.</p>
<h2>Getting interested</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-31/young-people-dont-care-about-voting">Many people argue</a> that younger Americans fail to vote because they are <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2014/10/29/why-young-people-dont-vote">apathetic about politics</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/apr/19/why-young-people-dont-vote-apathy-or-antipathy-election-2015">You might have heard</a> that millennials – people <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/">between the ages of 24 and 39</a> – are generally too cynical, too disinterested and too self-absorbed to cast a ballot.</p>
<p>But this claim simply isn’t true for millennials or the very youngest voters, who belong to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/">Generation Z</a>. In the 2016 general election, for example, a full three out of four of Americans between the age of 18 and 29 said they were <a href="https://www.wral.com/john-b-holbein-d-sunshine-hillygus-why-so-many-young-people-don-t-vote-how-to-change-it/18960142/">interested in politics</a>.</p>
<p>Though young people <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-young-people-vote-super-tuesday-20200303-otex6bg2gnhobjxzyzw22mygjy-story.html">who intend to vote</a> are much more likely than people over 30 to be derailed by obstacles.</p>
<p>For instance, young people are often are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12177">confused by complex and unclear voter registration rules</a>. Moreover, youth are especially unlikely to know where they should vote and to be negatively affected when <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/turning-out-to-vote-the-costs-of-finding-and-getting-to-the-polling-place/6CB07495AFC81E3251CC01A60A10B8FB">polling places get moved</a>.</p>
<p>In interviews with dozens of young people, we found that many of them lacked confidence in themselves and their ability to navigate the voting process for the first time. Many told us that in their busy, hectic, and ever-changing schedules, voting often simply falls by the wayside.</p>
<p>Simply put, many young people want to participate, care about what happens in the political arena, and plan to participate. But they find doing so too big of a hassle to actually follow through on their good intentions.</p>
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<h2>Removing obstacles</h2>
<p>Electoral reforms that make registering and voting easier, we’ve found through our research, help encourage young people to follow through and vote.</p>
<p>We’re seeing that reforms like <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/same-day-registration.aspx">same-day registration</a> – which allows people to register when they come to cast a ballot – are particularly effective. </p>
<p>At present, however, same-day registration is available in only 21 states and the District of Columbia.</p>
<p>Likewise, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/preregistration-for-young-voters.aspx">preregistration for 16- and 17-year-olds</a> – letting them enroll before they might go to college or join the workforce – can also substantially increase the number of voters under 30. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/preregistration-for-young-voters.aspx">only 18 states</a>, along with the District of Columbia, allow preregistration.</p>
<h2>Closing the gap</h2>
<p>When states implement these types of reforms, they <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/making-young-voters/D8A982E9E7C9DAAAE3DF9685F1DFC037">close the gap between older and younger voters by about a third</a>.</p>
<p>Our findings are consistent with early work that shows that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/11/this-new-california-law-could-dramatically-change-the-demographics-of-its-electorate/">automatic voter registration</a> substantially <a href="https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2019/7/11/automatic-voter-registration-boosts-turnout-among-young-and-low-income-people">increases the number of young people voting for the first time</a>. </p>
<p>This suggests that reforms that work to make voting easier and expand the electorate have great potential to meaningfully increase turnout for young voters. <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/karendolan/16-year-olds-teenage-activists-right-to-vote">Reforms such as lowering the voting age to 16</a> – which places like Takoma Park, Hyattsville and Greenbelt in Maryland and Berkeley, California allow for local elections – offer great potential to bring in the next generation of young voters.</p>
<p>Taking these steps won’t completely close the gap between young and older voters, but they do help.</p>
<p>However, many states have gone in the opposite direction in recent years. States like <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article238913033.html">North Carolina</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/arkansas-supreme-court-upholds-revised-voter-id-law">Arkansas</a> and <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/florida-georgia-north-carolina-still-purging-voters-high-rates">Florida</a> are making registering and voting more difficult through reforms that <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx">require photo identification at the polls</a> or <a href="http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2019/09/16/nc-featured-in-new-national-report-on-polling-site-closures-voter-suppression/">severely reduce the number of polling places</a> – which leads to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-03-07/dedicated-voters-election-day-long-lines">long lines of voters waiting to cast their ballots</a>. </p>
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<h2>Studying civics</h2>
<p>Civics, taught in many <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/data-most-states-require-history-but-not.html">but not all</a> public schools, can also play a role.</p>
<p>Proponents for high-quality civics – from the Founding Fathers down to public officials today – have <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-america-urgently-needs-to-improve-k-12-civic-education-66736">long advocated for an approach</a> that gets young people more politically engaged. Instead, many schools favor what we call “bubble sheet civics.”</p>
<p>They focus on rote memorization of facts and figures about politics, government and history – the types of things that can be measured on multiple-choice exams.</p>
<p>We find that this approach simply doesn’t lead to a high level of civic engagement, such as voting in most elections. Surveys show that taking a civics course in high school does nothing to increase the chances a young person will cast their ballot. And there’s no difference in youth voter turnout rates between states like <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/07/21/624267576/what-your-state-is-doing-to-beef-up-civics-education">Florida and Arizona</a> that mandate civics instruction and those that don’t, such as <a href="https://www.aft.org/ae/summer2018/shapiro_brown">Oregon and Washington</a>.</p>
<p>I don’t think it has to be this way.</p>
<p>We’ve observed that some schools do go beyond bubble sheet civics. They get teens and tweens to discuss contemporary political issues, encourage students to become involved in civic and political action – such as by having them help eligible citizens to register and to vote – and help their classmates register or preregister. They also practice voting in symbolic elections. Going that route <a href="https://www.mathematica.org/our-publications-and-findings/publications/the-impact-of-democracy-prep-public-schools-on-civic-participation">can make a big difference</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Holbein receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Americans under 30 are far less likely to vote than older citizens. Stepping up civics instruction might help change that, a scholar explains.John Holbein, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Education, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1312012020-03-04T23:26:32Z2020-03-04T23:26:32ZIt’s now Biden v Sanders as Super Tuesday narrows the field for the Democratic nomination<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318754/original/file-20200304-66052-1k69ezr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Cristobal Herrera</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Super Tuesday has continued Joe Biden’s recovery from the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/biden-donors-divided-on-his-prospects-after-new-hampshire-primary-loss.html">brink of disaster</a>.</p>
<p>After a larger-than-expected win in South Carolina, Biden became the clear alternative to Bernie Sanders in the contest to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for the US presidency. Just before Super Tuesday, his moderate rivals, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, dropped out, giving him their endorsements. Just as in South Carolina, the African American vote in southern states proved critical for Biden. He now holds a narrow delegate lead over Sanders. </p>
<p>Sanders held his own on Super Tuesday, especially in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/811814642/sanders-wins-california-largest-super-tuesday-prize-fueled-by-latino-vote">California</a>, where he stands to harvest more than 150 delegates. But his campaign will be disappointed that they couldn’t land a knockout blow, especially in Texas where Sanders led in polls but Biden won.</p>
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<p>It is now a two-person race, with an advantage to Biden. There have been a lot of crazy, chaotic stories over the past six months. The unlikely rise of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. The trials of Elizabeth Warren, widely admired but cursed by self-fulfilling prophecies about her electability. The jaw-droppingly expensive, and futile, campaign of Mike Bloomberg. The demoralising fiasco of the Iowa caucuses. </p>
<p>After all that, we’re back to the two men who seemed the most likely contenders before it all began.</p>
<p>So what can we learn from Super Tuesday in 2020?</p>
<h2>The power of the black Southern vote</h2>
<p>After his shockingly poor results in the Iowa and New Hampshire races, Biden <a href="https://theweek.com/speedreads/895359/biden-isnt-fazed-after-new-hampshire-because-999-percent-black-voters-havent-say">warned</a> that 99.9% of African American voters had not yet had a say in the primaries. This was Biden’s big gamble – that black voters in South Carolina would redeem him. </p>
<p>Biden boasts <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/15/us/politics/joe-biden-black-voters.html">long-standing connections with African American leaders</a> and the reflected glory of Barack Obama’s presidency when he served as vice president. But as early losses mounted, campaign money dried up and his poll lead shrank in South Carolina, his prospects looked <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21132076/joe-biden-south-carolina-primary-firewall-bernie-sanders-tom-steyer">increasingly shaky</a>. </p>
<p>His saviour was the very senior and respected congressman <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/james-clyburn-endorses-joe-biden-before-south-carolina-primary.html">James Clyburn</a>, who gave Biden his endorsement days before the election. A huge <a href="https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/29/south-carolina-primary-how-clyburn-endorsement-helped-biden-win-big/4918362002/">47% of South Carolina voters</a> said Clyburn’s endorsement was important, and Biden won two-thirds of the black vote there.</p>
<p>African American voters powered Biden’s Super Tuesday victories in Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama and, crucially, in Texas. Overall, he won more than 60% of the black vote, which makes up a quarter or more of the Democratic Party electorate (and the majority in some southern states). It is widely believed in the Democratic Party that an energised black electorate is critical to beating Trump and winning house and senate races, and this will draw more support to Biden.</p>
<p>But is it important to remember that African Americans are not politically monolithic. These wins in the South reflect Biden’s strengths with older and more conservative voters. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/black-voters-biden-sanders-latinos-120952">In California he won about a third of the black vote</a>.</p>
<h2>Don’t forget Latino voters</h2>
<p>Bernie Sanders is winning in western states like California, Nevada and Colorado. This is partly because of the enthusiasm he has generated among <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/bernie-sanders-latino-voters">working-class Latino voters</a>, who are drawn to his economic message.</p>
<p>Latinos, who are about a third of the Democratic electorate in California, are younger than the rest of the population and will be increasingly important in future Democratic coalitions. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/latinos-boosted-sanders-super-tuesday-lesson-biden-campaign-n1149511">Sanders won around half the Latino vote in California and 39% of it in Texas</a>.</p>
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<p>The great promise of Sanders is that he can reach young voters who would otherwise avoid politics. His electability against Trump <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data">hinges on large increases in youth turnout</a>. So far, those increases <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/super-tuesday-young-voters-love-bernie-sanders-youth-voter-turnout-outnumbered">haven’t transpired</a> for him in the primaries. It may well be different in a general election, but we’ll never know if it doesn’t happen in the remaining primary races.</p>
<h2>Money isn’t everything</h2>
<p>Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent an incredible <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/mike-bloomberg-drops-out-2020/607378/">half-a-billion dollars</a> (A$768 million) on his campaign in the Super Tuesday states, and has little to show for it. He has now exited the race, but his money will stay in. He is likely to play a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-2019-clive-palmer-says-uap-ads-gave-coalition-win/11128160">Clive Palmer role</a>, unable to buy office for himself, but willing to spend hugely to get a candidate and a president who will act in his interests.</p>
<p>Bloomberg, who wasn’t on the first three ballots, left his run too late. He got only two debates, the first of which was a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/04/mike-bloomberg-out-60-second-attack-elizabeth-warren-destroyed-campaign">disaster</a>. He had no chance after Biden harnessed the moderate vote with his South Carolina win.</p>
<p>This will be a lesson for any future candidates tempted to wait out the early races. But it is a lesson Bloomberg should already have known. The mayor of New York before him, Rudy Giuliani, also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jan/30/usa.rudygiuliani">gambled everything</a> on the fourth race of the 2008 primaries. He spent US$59 million to get a single delegate in Florida. </p>
<p>Whatever else he may have lost, Bloomberg has smashed the record for flushing money down the electoral toilet. </p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>The race is now Biden’s to lose, but it is far from over. Biden has so far relied on the patronage of wealthy and powerful people. He is likely to enjoy <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mike-bloomberg-drops-out-of-presidential-race/2020/03/04/62eaa54a-5743-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html">more of that from Bloomberg</a>, and may hope for the ultimate endorsement from Barack Obama (though it’s unclear that Obama will endorse anyone in the primaries).</p>
<p>But his campaign still has serious organisational weaknesses. While endorsing Biden, Clyburn took the unusual step of <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/not-going-to-sit-back-idly-jim-clyburn-knocks-joe-bidens-campaign-despite-endorsement">publicly pointing out</a> that he lacks campaign infrastructure. Biden has been a less-than-inspirational speaker on the campaign trail. His single most powerful asset is a <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/03/02/biden-leads-trump-poll">widespread belief</a> that he can beat Trump.</p>
<p>Sanders has a genuine movement behind him, which the last two winners of the presidential election also had. His social-democratic agenda has changed the debate in the Democratic Party and the nation. Progressives have decisively chosen him over Elizabeth Warren. But Sanders has an uphill fight now that Democratic moderates have settled on a single champion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One moderate; one progressive: the Democratic race has come down to Joe Biden against Bernie Sanders, with the chips increasingly falling Biden’s way.David Smith, Senior Lecturer in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1330292020-03-04T20:53:38Z2020-03-04T20:53:38ZBiden’s resurrection was unprecedented – and well-timed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318735/original/file-20200304-66089-1ar0un9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally in Los Angeles on Super Tuesday.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-vice-president-and-democratic-presidential-candidate-news-photo/1205048522?adppopup=true">Ronen Tivony/Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dominant question going into Super Tuesday was: Did Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-the-south-carolina-democratic-primary-2020-2">sweeping victory in South Carolina</a> come just in time, or was it too late? </p>
<p>The answer is now clear. Biden <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/biden-wins-8-super-tuesday-states-sanders-takes-california/ar-BB10F0vq">all-but-swept Super Tuesday</a> states, propelled by a tsunami of <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/01/colorado-primary-president-undecided-voters/">late-deciding voters</a>.</p>
<p>A week ago, <a href="https://www.legalsportsbetting.com/news/bernie-sanders-could-take-super-tuesday-odds-by-storm/">prognosticators speculated that Bernie Sanders could emerge</a> from Super Tuesday’s contests with an insurmountable delegate lead of more than 300 delegates. After that, since <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/16/everything-you-need-to-know-about-delegate-math-in-the-presidential-primary/">Democrats allocate delegates proportionally</a>, they said even if a Sanders challenger won a state 55% to 45%, Sanders’ delegate lead would narrow only marginally.</p>
<p>Instead, Biden’s powerful showing on Super Tuesday saw him easily break the “threshold” level – the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/03/texas-2020-presidential-results-bernie-sanders-joe-biden/">15% of votes cast required to collect delegates</a> – virtually everywhere. He <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/03/03/joe-biden-massachusetts-democratic-primary">carried Elizabeth Warren’s home state of Massachusetts</a>, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/super-tuesday-results-sanders-wins-vermont-but-not-without-competition-from-biden/ar-BB10FY1E">outperformed projections in Sanders’ own Vermont</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/primary-results-biden-sanders-03-04">won Minnesota against all expectations</a>. Biden prevailed in the southern states, including the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-03-04/voter-turnout-surges-in-several-key-super-tuesday-states-boosting-joe-biden">mega-prize of Texas</a>. </p>
<p>While Sanders will <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/super-tuesday-live-updates-sanders-wins-california-biden-takes-texas-bloomberg-drops-out/ar-BB10HKvr">come in first in California</a>, Biden will have a massive haul of delegates, especially as <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx">mail-in ballots trickle in</a> post-Super Tuesday. </p>
<h2>‘Prohibitive favorite’</h2>
<p>In fact, at this point, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/upshot/biden-sanders-delegate-count-analysis.html">it’s Biden, not Sanders, who leads in delegates</a>.</p>
<p>Michael Bloomberg has <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/mike-bloomberg-is-suspending-his-presidential-campaign-says-hes-endorsing-biden/ar-BB10JUNk?OCID=ansmsnnews11">dropped out and endorsed Biden</a>. His <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/04/mike-bloomberg-quits-2020-primary-race-democrats">money is limitless</a>, but his rationale for getting in – preventing a Sanders nomination as Biden faltered – collapsed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/after-super-tuesday-surge-biden-gets-new-boost-as-bloomberg-drops-out-idUSKBN20R0XX">Bloomberg will now become Biden’s wing-man</a>, potentially committing his vast resources and deep organization to the Biden cause. </p>
<p>Warren, after her poor showing and her humiliating loss in Massachusetts, is “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485898-warren-reassessing-campaign-after-disappointing-super-tuesday">reassessing</a>.” Her only rationale for continuing – that <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/03/02/elizabeth-warren-super-tuesday">she can bring the Sanders and the non-Sanders coalitions together</a> – hardly seems plausible. It would mean the Democratic Party nominating someone who consistently finishes third or worse in most primaries.</p>
<p>As ballots were cast on Super Tuesday, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/joe-biden-wins-iowa-hes-off-races-nate-68229921">estimated that Joe Biden would enter the convention with over 1,700 delegates</a>, while Bernie Sanders would claim over 1,300. </p>
<p>To win outright, a candidate needs 1,991 delegates. The Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar delegates <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/02/campaign-live-updates/">seem mostly destined to move to Biden</a>. Hundreds of superdelegates are also available to vote for the former vice president on a second ballot if the convention needs it. All that makes Biden now the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee. His resurrection was swift, almost unbelievable and simply unprecedented in the modern history of Democratic presidential primaries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Shrum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Joe Biden’s swift return as a strong candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination was a dramatic shift never seen before in the modern history of Democratic presidential primaries.Robert Shrum, Carmen H. and Louis Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1327352020-03-04T17:47:48Z2020-03-04T17:47:48ZSuper Tuesday results show how Latino voters, moderate Democrats and Trump supporters are shaping the election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318664/original/file-20200304-66078-h95u1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voting machine operator David Schaefer, right, helps voter Kaitron Gordon with her ballot on Tennessee's Super Tuesday primary in Nashville after deadly overnight tornadoes delayed the start of voting. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Tennessee-Primary/a3f7c17f1fb340d1ab59126dcaa81b73/35/0">AP/Mark Humphrey</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: From tiny Vermont villages to the tornado-damaged city of Nashville to California’s sprawling suburbs, Democrats on Super Tuesday rewarded candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders with large delegate hauls. The Conversation asked three scholars to analyze the results, which drove Michael Bloomberg from the race and turned the competition effectively into a two-person contest between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.</em></p>
<p><strong>Andrea Kent, Assistant Professor of Political Science, West Virginia University</strong></p>
<p>Super Tuesday 2020 showed the resiliency of the Democratic Party’s center against the liberal left. </p>
<p>This year’s Super Tuesday included 10 states that also voted in Super Tuesday 2016, and adds in four new states, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Super_Tuesday_primaries,_2020">California, Maine, North Carolina and Utah</a>.</p>
<p>Of the 14, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html">Sanders won</a> six in 2016 and roughly 44% of the available delegates. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-super-tuesday-primary-election.html">This year</a>, Sanders looks likely to take only four states. Biden was particularly strong across the South, taking first in all the region’s contests. Biden’s wins in 2020 exceed those of Hillary Clinton in 2016; she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/oklahoma">lost Oklahoma</a> to Sanders. Biden also recaptured <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-minnesota-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Minnesota</a>, which had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/minnesota">gone to Sanders</a> in 2016. </p>
<p>But Sanders’ capture of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-california-president-democrat-primary-election.html">California</a>, with its massive number of delegates, may help mitigate his smaller-state losses in the delegate-count column.</p>
<p>Based on the ideologically similar candidate pairs’ performances (centrists Biden and Bloomberg and leftists Sanders and Warren), the results suggest the appeal of leftist politics has not grown among many Democratic primary states’ voters. The centrist duo improved on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/colorado">Clinton’s vote-share</a> numbers in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-colorado-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-maine-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Maine</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-minnesota-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Minnesota</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-oklahoma-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Oklahoma</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-vermont-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Vermont</a>. </p>
<p>While few states saw a significant increase in support for the left-wing candidates, the two that did – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-california-president-democrat-primary-election.html">California</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-texas-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Texas</a> – have a substantial number of delegates. </p>
<p>Looking ahead, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/delegate-count-primary-results.html">next two weeks</a> will greatly clarify the Democratic primary race. On March 10, six states vote, including Washington – which went strongly for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/washington">Sanders in 2016</a> – and Michigan, which went <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/michigan">marginally for Sanders</a>. The following week, four large states – including the presidential swing states of Ohio and Florida as well as Illinois and Arizona – vote, and all of these states went for the more moderate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html">Clinton in 2016</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., U.S. 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and family on the stage during a Super Tuesday rally in Essex Junction, Vermont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-bernie-sanders-i-vt-u-s-2020-democratic-presidential-news-photo/1205027200?adppopup=true">Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p><strong>Katie A. Cahill, Associate Director, Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee</strong></p>
<p>In 2016, President Donald Trump won my state of Tennessee <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/08/trump-projected-win-tennessee/93449122/">with the largest margin since the 1972 race between Richard Nixon and George McGovern</a>. Trump received 60.7% of votes cast, compared to 32.1% for Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>While few analysts think that the state is in play for 2020, what insights can the 2020 Super Tuesday results provide about the preferences of those living deep in Trump country? </p>
<p>In the 2020 Tennessee Republican primary, <a href="https://elections.tn.gov/results.php?ByOffice=Candidates%20for%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States">Trump received 384,034 votes</a> – 50,000 more votes than he received in the crowded and competitive 2016 primary field. </p>
<p>As a comparison, in 2004, the last primary featuring a sitting Republican president running for reelection, <a href="https://sharetngov.tnsosfiles.com/sos/election/results/2004-2/repres.pdf">there were only 99,061 total votes cast in the Republican primary</a>. This suggests that Trump’s loyal and active voting base in the state has remained stable and even potentially grown since the last election. </p>
<p>The state has long been known for its <a href="https://news.psu.edu/story/603823/2020/01/15/research/power-struggles-how-tennessee-became-more-racially-and-politically">moderate politics</a>. But, despite the public critiques of the president and his administration from some of Tennessee’s leading Republicans – <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/09/bill-haslam-donald-trump-needs-step-aside-mike-pence/91827988/">including former Gov. Bill Haslam</a>, former <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/bob-corker-is-free-to-speak-his-mind-about-donald-trump-if-he-could-only-make-it-up/2018/04/16/cc4f2d58-3da0-11e8-974f-aacd97698cef_story.html">Sen. Bob Corker</a> and retiring <a href="https://www.alexander.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2020/1/alexander-statement-on-impeachment-witness-vote">Sen. Lamar Alexander</a> – it appears that the current administration remains widely popular among most of the state’s conservative voters. </p>
<p>At the same time, in the state’s 2020 Democratic primary, there were 142,945 more votes cast than in 2016, suggesting a great deal of energy on both sides of the aisle. That’s particularly interesting in a state <a href="https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/07/17/tennessee-elections-2018-politics-voting-voter-turnout/783348002/">that is routinely at the bottom of national rankings of voter participation</a>. </p>
<p>Joe Biden led Democrats in the state with nearly 42% of Super Tuesday votes. At the same time, he received about 30,000 fewer votes in 2020 than Hillary Clinton picked up in 2016. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders picked up more than 7,000 additional votes in the state since 2016. </p>
<p>Still, of the state’s 95 counties, Biden won 91, with Sanders only taking the lead in four counties. From this breakdown, it appears that Democratic voters deep in Trump country think that the center-left approach of Biden is the best bet for the 2020 general election contest. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318690/original/file-20200304-66069-ic1f2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally in Los Angeles on Super Tuesday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-vice-president-and-democratic-presidential-candidate-news-photo/1205048517?adppopup=true">Ronen Tivony/Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Rey Junco, Director of Research at the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts University</strong></p>
<p>Texas was the second-biggest prize on Super Tuesday, and Joe Biden won the state’s primary <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/texas-results">with 33.7% of the vote</a>. However, the state’s Latino vote went to Bernie Sanders: 45% for Sanders and 24% for Biden. While 44% of all Texas Democrat primary voters are white, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/texas-results?icid=election_usmap">31% are Latino</a>.</p>
<p>The split between Biden and Sanders was <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/texas-results?icid=election_usmap">even greater among Latinos</a> aged 18 to 29, who preferred Sanders over Biden, 66% versus 10%, and who made up a larger share of voters than young white Texans: 8% versus 5%. Since Biden appears to have won the state by fewer than 4 percentage points, higher participation from Latino youth could have changed the results.</p>
<p>For years, political observers have been talking about <a href="https://www.salon.com/2016/12/18/latino-voters-will-reshape-american-politics-as-we-know-it-and-heres-the-proof/">the power of Latino voters to reshape American politics</a>. They certainly have the potential: Census data show Latinos make up 13% – <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-population-pace-surpass-white-residents/">and growing</a> – of the voting-age population. </p>
<p>In the 2018 midterms, Americans got a glimpse of how young Latinos are already influencing elections. Analyses by <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/">CIRCLE</a> – the research group that I am a part of – found that <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/county-county-youth-color-key-democrats-2018">Texas counties with higher youth and Latino populations were much more likely to vote for Beto O’Rourke</a> than low-youth, low-Latino counties. These dynamics <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/10/9/20900662/texas-democrats-swing-state-blue-2020">may make Texas a battleground state in the near future</a>.</p>
<p>However, as with all young voters, engaging Latino youth in Texas and around the country depends on sustained outreach. That has been a challenge: Our pre-primary <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/new-poll-texans-under-40-shows-need-outreach-especially-among-latinos">poll of young voters in Texas</a> found that Texas Latinos under age 40 were less likely than non-Latinos to have been contacted by a campaign or organization. Seventy-five percent of Latinos had not been contacted, compared to 60% of non-Latinos.</p>
<p>Perhaps as a result, Latinos were less likely to know key voting information. Though Texas’s primary allows any registered voter to vote as either a Republican or a Democrat, two-thirds of Latinos thought they had to be registered with a party to participate or said they didn’t know.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the race for the Democratic nomination narrows to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, what does it all mean for November? We asked three scholars to closely analyze the Super Tuesday results.Katie A. Cahill, Associate Director, Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy, University of TennesseeAndrea Kent, Assistant Professor of Political Science, West Virginia University Institute of TechnologyRey Junco, Director of Research at the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1327542020-03-04T10:43:50Z2020-03-04T10:43:50ZBiden easily wins Super Tuesday after strong comeback in past few days<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318603/original/file-20200304-66052-1huogsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Etienne Laurent</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fourteen states held <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-super-tuesday-primary-election.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation">Democratic primaries</a> on Tuesday US time. Joe Biden is likely to win ten of those states, to four wins for Bernie Sanders. Biden crushed Sanders by 47 points in Alabama, 30 points in Virginia, 19 in North Carolina, 18 in Arkansas, 17 in Tennessee and 13 in Oklahoma.</p>
<p>Biden had surprise wins in Minnesota (nine points over Sanders) and Massachusetts. That is Elizabeth Warren’s home state, but she finished third, with Biden winning 33%, Sanders 27% and Warren just 22%. Biden won Texas by 4%, and is likely to win Maine.</p>
<p>Sanders won just three states: his home state of Vermont (by 29 points), Utah (by 17) and Colorado (by 13). Sanders is likely to win California, where he currently has a nine-point lead. Many more votes remain to be counted in California, Utah and Colorado, and these votes could assist Sanders. Particularly in California, later votes trend left.</p>
<p>A few days before Super Tuesday, it had looked so different. Even though Sanders had only about 30% of the national vote, that appeared enough for a large delegate plurality against a divided field. So how did Biden come back so strongly?</p>
<p>On Saturday, Joe Biden crushingly won the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/29/us/elections/results-south-carolina-primary-election.html">South Carolina primary</a> with 48.4%. Bernie Sanders was a distant second with 19.9%, followed by Tom Steyer at 11.3%, Pete Buttigieg 8.2%, Elizabeth Warren 7.1% and Amy Klobuchar just 3.2%. According to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/29/us/elections/results-south-carolina-primary-election.html">exit polls</a>, black voters made up 56% of the electorate, and voted for Biden by 61-17 over Sanders.</p>
<p>After disappointing results in two diverse states – Nevada and South Carolina – Buttigieg <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/01/buittigieg-will-quit-presidential-race/">ended his campaign</a> the next day. Buttigieg is the first candidate to leave while still <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">polling over 10% nationally</a>. On Monday, Klobuchar also withdrew, and she and Buttigieg <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/02/buttigieg-may-be-joining-klobuchar-at-biden-rally/">endorsed Biden</a> at a rally.</p>
<p>In the 2016 Democratic primaries, Sanders came unexpectedly close to Hillary Clinton. However, this was partly due to Clinton’s lack of appeal to lower-educated whites, something that Donald Trump exploited in the general election.</p>
<p>Once Klobuchar and Buttigieg withdrew, Biden was able to consolidate the vote of Clinton’s supporters: higher-educated whites and black voters. Biden has a stronger appeal to lower-educated whites than Clinton. So once moderates consolidated behind one candidate, that candidate was able to dominate.</p>
<p>After spending a huge amount of money on Super Tuesday ads, Mike Bloomberg bombed. He did not come close to winning a single state, finishing third or worse in all states contested.</p>
<p>According to the delegate count at <a href="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D">The Green Papers</a>, Biden now leads Sanders by 497 to 395, with 65 for Bloomberg and 47 for Warren. Biden leads the overall popular vote by 35.1% to 27.3%. There are many more contests to come, <a href="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/ccad.phtml">starting with six states</a> next Tuesday that account for 9% of delegates, but Biden is clearly in the box seat to win at least a plurality of all pledged delegates.</p>
<h2>Israel and Germany</h2>
<p>At Monday’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election#Preliminary_results">Israeli election</a>, right-wing parties won 58 of the 120 seats (up three since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 55 (down two). Netanyahu’s coalition will be three seats short of a majority. This election was the third in a year after no government could be formed following April and September 2019 elections.</p>
<p>On my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/german-political-crisis-in-thuringia-and-italian-regional-elections/">personal website</a>, I covered the February German political crisis in Thuringia, in which the far-right AfD and conservative CDU supported a small pro-business party’s leader to become state president. It is the first time that any German party has cooperated with the AfD to form government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the momentum had been with Bernie Sanders, the former vice president surged on Super Tuesday, and is favourite to win the Democratic nomination.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323352020-02-27T14:57:02Z2020-02-27T14:57:02ZHow socialism became un-American through the Ad Council’s propaganda campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317193/original/file-20200225-24672-1w17i64.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bernie Sanders was asked at a CNN-sponsored town hall about socialism.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/04/23/bernie-sanders-town-hall-failures-of-socialism-question-soviet-russia-sot-vpx.cnn">CNN screenshot</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>This article was published in 2020</strong>
Bernie Sanders has emerged as the Democratic <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/on-the-eve-of-the-iowa-caucuses-bernie-sanders-is-the-democratic-front-runner">front-runner</a> in the race for the presidential nomination. </p>
<p>Yet even some left-leaning pundits and publications <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/opinion/bernie-sanders-2020.html?fbclid=IwAR2Rba8I0OTMyry_KDG_qB6uWTiZOI4e44u9fDoaqrYfI6cYiN2tuQGwZjM">are concerned about</a> what they see as Sanders’ potential lack of electability. </p>
<p>Sanders is a Democratic Socialist. And the label “socialist” is a political liability in American culture. According to a Gallup <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563/socialism-atheism-political-liabilities.aspx">poll</a> released on Feb. 11, 2020, only 45% of Americans would vote for a socialist.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://muohio.academia.edu/OanaGodeanuKenworthy">scholar of American culture</a> with an interest in the relationship between political ideologies and popular culture. In my research, I have found that this antipathy toward socialism may not be an accident: American identity today is strongly tied to an image of capitalism crafted and advertised by the Ad Council and American corporate interests over decades, often with the support of the U.S. government. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317163/original/file-20200225-24655-1ffoszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317163/original/file-20200225-24655-1ffoszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317163/original/file-20200225-24655-1ffoszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317163/original/file-20200225-24655-1ffoszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317163/original/file-20200225-24655-1ffoszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317163/original/file-20200225-24655-1ffoszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317163/original/file-20200225-24655-1ffoszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot from one of the corporate Cold War-era cartoons linking the Bill of Rights to free-enterprise ideology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://archive.org/details/ItsEvery1954">Internet Archive, Prelinger Collection</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Business and government solidarity</h2>
<p>In 1942, a group of advertising and industry executives created the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/12/141207-world-war-advertising-consumption-anniversary-people-photography-culture/">War Advertising Council</a>, to promote the war effort. The government compensated the companies that created or donated ads by allowing them to deduct some of their costs from their taxable incomes. </p>
<p>Renamed the Ad Council in 1943, the organization applied the same wartime persuasive techniques of advertising and psychological manipulation during the Cold War years, the post-war period when the geopolitical rivalry between the U.S., the USSR and their respective allies raged. One of their goals: promoting the virtues of capitalism and free enterprise in America while simultaneously demonizing the alternative – socialism – which was often conflated with communism. </p>
<p>Government propaganda at home portrayed the communist USSR as <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-history-of-communism/cold-war-anticommunism-and-the-impact-of-communism-on-the-west/FBF5BE47137C1284F8D7AB073CE0EDBF/core-reader">godless, tyrannical and antithetical to individual freedoms</a>. As a counterpoint, America became everything the Soviet Union was not. </p>
<p>This link between capitalism and American national identity was advertised through a sophisticated, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/enterprise-and-society/article/fun-and-facts-about-american-business-economic-education-and-business-propaganda-in-an-early-cold-war-cartoon-series/664FAB7E513C39EA17E860627C0393AD">corporate effort</a> as efficient and ubiquitous as state-driven propaganda behind the Iron Curtain. </p>
<p>The campaigns used the ideological divisions of the Cold War to emphasize the relevance of their message. In a 1948 report, the Ad Council <a href="https://news.hrvh.org/veridian/?a=d&d=scarsdaleinquire19490909.2.72">explained</a> its goal to the public: “The world today is engaged in a colossal struggle to determine whether freedom or statism will dominate.” </p>
<h2>Extolling capitalism’s virtues</h2>
<p>The campaigns started as a public-private partnership. At the end of World War II, the government worried about the <a href="https://depts.washington.edu/moves/CP_map-members.shtml">spread of communism</a> at home. Business interests worried about government regulations and about <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/3400/longterm-gallup-poll-trends-portrait-american-public-opinion.aspx">the rising popularity of unions</a>. The Cold War provided both parties with a shared enemy.</p>
<p>In 1947, President Truman asked the Ad Council to organize the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/remembering-the-freedom-train">Freedom Train Campaign</a>, focusing on the history of America’s political freedoms. Paramount Pictures, U.S. Steel, DuPont, General Electric and Standard Oil provided financial support. For two years the train crisscrossed the nation, carrying original documents that included the Bill of Rights and the Constitution.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317170/original/file-20200225-24685-1wv4n16.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C221%2C101&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317170/original/file-20200225-24685-1wv4n16.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317170/original/file-20200225-24685-1wv4n16.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317170/original/file-20200225-24685-1wv4n16.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317170/original/file-20200225-24685-1wv4n16.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317170/original/file-20200225-24685-1wv4n16.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317170/original/file-20200225-24685-1wv4n16.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the Ad Council’s messages about capitalism in America.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://repository.duke.edu/dc/outdooradvertising/AAA5813">Outdoor Advertising Association of America Archives, Duke University Libraries</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The following year, the Ad Council launched a business-led campaign, called <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-history-review/article/selling-of-america-the-advertising-council-and-american-politics-19421960/FD882140447065C31D46F1118A486C7A">“The Miracle of America,”</a> intended to foster support for the American model of capitalism, as distinct from its Western European version, which was more friendly to government intervention. It urged increased productivity by U.S. workers, linked economic and political freedom and, paradoxically, asserted capitalism’s <a href="https://ballouonvisualcomms.wordpress.com/2016/06/15/ad-council-economic-education-ads/#jp-carousel-1192">collaborative</a> nature. </p>
<p>“Sure, America is going ahead if we all pull together,” read a brochure. Another flyer, “<a href="https://ballouonvisualcomms.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/1949_comes_the_revolution.jpg">Comes the Revolution!</a>,” cast its support of American capitalism in the language of global struggle: “If we continue to make that system work…then other nations will follow us. If we don’t, then they’ll probably go communist or fascist.”</p>
<p>In its first two years, the Miracle of America message reached American audiences via <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/little-cold-warriors-9780190675684?cc=us&lang=en&">250 radio and television stations and 7,000 outdoor billboards</a>. Newspapers printed <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3114050?Search=yes&resultItemClick=true&searchText=selling&searchText=of&searchText=america&searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch%3FQuery%3Dselling%2Bof%2Bamerica%26amp%3Bfilter%3D&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_SYC-4946%2Fcontrol&refreqid=search%3A4461685f10fcf36b78d4b85743875e92&seq=1">13 million lines</a> of free advertising. The Ad Council boasted that the campaign made over <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230116948#aboutBook">1 billion “radio listener impressions.”</a></p>
<p>American factory workers received about half of the 1.84 million copies of the free pamphlet “The Miracle of America.” One-quarter were distributed free of charge to schools, and <a href="https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780190675684.001.0001/oso-9780190675684">76 universities</a> ordered the booklet.</p>
<p>This pro-business propaganda, expressed in the language of Cold War patriotism, had <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Free-Market-Missionaries-The-Corporate-Manipulation-of-Community-Values/Beder/p/book/9781844073344">reached roughly 70%</a> of the American population by the end of the campaign.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/G4FmHsniTGg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How Ad Council campaigns after WWII helped make socialism un-American.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cartoon capitalism</h2>
<p>The efforts produced more than just print and billboard messages.</p>
<p>In 1946, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, founded by the former head of General Motors, paid the evangelical <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01956051.2011.653419?journalCode=vjpf20">Harding College</a> to produce “<a href="https://archive.org/search.php?query=creator%3A%22Sutherland+%28John%29+Productions%2C+Inc.%22">Fun and Facts about American Business</a>,” a series of educational cartoon videos about capitalism, produced by a former Disney employee. </p>
<p>Between 1949 and 1952, Metro Goldwyn Mayer distributed them in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/enterprise-and-society/article/fun-and-facts-about-american-business-economic-education-and-business-propaganda-in-an-early-cold-war-cartoon-series/664FAB7E513C39EA17E860627C0393AD">theaters, schools, colleges, churches</a> and workplaces. </p>
<p>The films promoted the same messages as the Ad Council campaigns, although they were not part of the project. They continued a decade-long effort by the Sloan Foundation to start, in the words of its executive director, “<a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/593466">a bombardment of the American mind with elementary economic principles</a> through partnering with educational institutions.” </p>
<p>To both Sloan and the movement’s backers, business interests were synonymous with the national interest. The free-enterprise system was a shorthand for freedom, democracy and patriotism. Unlike in Europe, the videos suggested, class struggle – of the kind that required unions – did not exist in the U.S. </p>
<p>In the cartoon “Meet the King,” Joe, the archetypal American worker, realizes he is not an exploited proletarian. Instead, he’s a <a href="https://archive.org/details/MeetKing1949">king</a>, “because he can buy more with his wages than any other worker on the globe.”</p>
<p>Conversely, government regulations of, or interventions in, the economy were described in the cartoons as socialist tendencies, bound to lead to communism and tyranny.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVh75ylAUXY">Make Mine Freedom</a>,” and “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHDyE954l4U">It’s Everybody’s Business</a>” presented the state as a perpetual threat. <a href="https://archive.org/details/ItsEvery1954">A money-sucking tax monster</a>, the government reduces everyone’s profits, crushes private enterprise and takes away individual freedoms: “<a href="https://archive.org/details/make_mine_freedom_ipod">No more private property, no more you</a>.”</p>
<p>According to an estimate from Fortune magazine, by 1952, American businesses spent US$100 million each year, independent from any Ad Council campaigns, promoting free enterprise.</p>
<h2>‘Peanuts’ pushes freedom</h2>
<p>In the early 1970s, business responded to rising negativity about corporate power with a new campaign coordinated by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1975/08/01/archives/advertising-simplifying-the-dismal-science.html">Ad Council</a>. </p>
<p>“The American Economic System … and Your Part in It” was launched alongside the bicentennial national celebrations. It was <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/375958?seq=1">the largest centralized pro-business public relations project</a> thus far, but only one of many <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1976/09/19/archives/the-babel-of-economic-advertising.html">independently run by corporations</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317192/original/file-20200225-24659-s8egp4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Part of a page from the 1970s booklet that used Charles Schultz’s ‘Peanuts’ comic strips to explain the benefits of America’s economic system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.amazon.com/American-Economic-System-Charles-Schulz/dp/B077NRNH28">Amazon</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The media industry donated $40 million in free space and air time in the first year of the campaign. The Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor contributed about half a million dollars toward the production costs for a 20-page <a href="https://www.amazon.com/American-Economic-System-Charles-Schulz/dp/B077NRNH28">booklet</a>. </p>
<p>That <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED177057.pdf">booklet</a> used data provided by the departments of Commerce and Labor and Charles Schulz’s ‘Peanuts’ comic strips to explain the benefits of America’s economic system. The system was again presented as a foundational freedom protected by a Constitution whose goal was to “maintain a climate in which people could work, invest, and prosper.”</p>
<p>By 1979, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Free-Market-Missionaries-Corporate-Manipulation-ebook/dp/B008FZ10QK/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=free+market+missionaries&qid=1582606871&sr=8-1">13 million</a> copies had been distributed to schools, universities, libraries, civic organizations and workplaces. </p>
<h2>Echoes now?</h2>
<p>For four decades, the Cold War provided a simple good-vs.-evil axis that consolidated the association between freedom, American-ness and free-enterprise capitalism. </p>
<p>The business community, independently and through the Ad Council, funded massive top-down economic education programs which shaped American perceptions of <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/3400/longterm-gallup-poll-trends-portrait-american-public-opinion.aspx">business and government</a> and of capitalism and socialism. </p>
<p>The Cold War ended 30 years ago, but its cultural structures and divisions endure – perhaps, even, in the responses of some Americans to Bernie Sanders’ socialism.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: The Conversation has received grant funding from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132335/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oana Godeanu-Kenworthy received funding from the Fulbright Commission and The Library of Congress. </span></em></p>Bernie Sanders is a Democratic Socialist, a potential problem for the presidential candidate. A Cold War campaign to link American-ness and capitalism helped create popular distrust of socialism.Oana Godeanu-Kenworthy, Teaching Professor of American Studies, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/555762016-03-02T23:05:04Z2016-03-02T23:05:04ZUS presidential race: why the world should be afraid of a Trump presidency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113515/original/image-20160302-25897-yjgylm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump has risen to probable nominee status through an extraordinary ability to tap into the deep fears and anxieties of millions of Americans.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Scott Audette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1948, more than half a century ago, Harry Truman was re-elected president of the United States after pollsters had <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/chi-chicagodays-deweydefeats-story-story.html">tipped a win</a> for his Republican rival, Thomas Dewey. </p>
<p>That election should remind us both that polls can be wrong, but also that major parties can fragment.</p>
<p>Truman lost four deep southern states to Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond. This was a harbinger of the shift that has turned the American South into the bastion of the Republican Party. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1948">electoral map</a> of 1948 is almost a mirror image of current alignments, although the large states of the industrial mid-West remain the most contested terrain.</p>
<p>There are other parallels in American history to elections that unsettle the balance, which usually occur when one party nominates an outsider. This November <a href="https://theconversation.com/super-tuesday-sets-the-stage-for-a-trump-versus-clinton-showdown-55551">increasingly looks as if</a> it will be a contest between the consummate insider Democrat, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump, an insurgent who has laid siege to the Republican Party through sheer chutzpah.</p>
<p>It is mathematically possible to construct scenarios that see Trump failing to win the nomination, or Bernie Sanders finding a surprising surge in support in large mid-Western states. But neither seems likely. </p>
<p>That Clinton and Trump both won their parties’ primaries on Super Tuesday in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region">Virginia and Massachusetts</a>, where their opponents should have performed well, suggests the nominations are basically decided.</p>
<h2>Towards November</h2>
<p>The conventional wisdom that saw Trump being supplanted as frontrunner long before Super Tuesday now sees him losing to Clinton in a general election. As Shakespeare’s Prince Henry might <a href="https://www.englishclub.com/ref/esl/Sayings/T/The_wish_is_father_to_the_thought_960.htm">remind us</a>, the wish is father to the thought.</p>
<p>Yes, Barry Goldwater in 1964 and George McGovern in 1972 are often cited as examples of candidates chosen by their parties who were roundly defeated in the ensuing election. It is also the case that in the late 1970s many optimistically proclaimed Ronald Reagan was too radical – and too old – to be elected president.</p>
<p>Trump, possibly the most egomaniacal figure ever to contest the presidency, has risen to probable nominee status through an extraordinary ability to tap into <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-winning-streak-reveals-bigotrys-appeal-in-gop-55304">deep fears and anxieties</a> among millions of Americans. Due to the possibilities of modern media he has captured a political party with which he has <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/president-trump-donald-swapped-party-affiliations-potential-presidential-bid-2009-doc-article-1.136213">tenuous links</a>, and most of whose leadership <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-republicans-idUSMTZSAPEC32EIZOBL">dislike and fear him</a>.</p>
<p>If running against the Republican mainstream has done Trump no harm in the primaries, it may prove more successful in a general election. Democrat strategists remember that up to <a href="http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1984/">one-quarter</a> of nominal Democrats voted for Reagan in 1984, and are anxious about the results in states such as Michigan, Ohio and Florida that are crucial to a Clinton victory.</p>
<p>It is likely that sufficient Republicans will support Clinton, or at least not vote, and that black and Hispanic voters will turn out in sufficient numbers in November to carry those states where there may be significant Democratic defections to Trump. </p>
<p>It is also possible that Trump can mobilise enough resentment and prejudice to win sufficient votes to beat Clinton, who many Americans deeply dislike.</p>
<h2>What it might mean for the world</h2>
<p>If I were betting I would put my money – cautiously – on Clinton to win. </p>
<p>For Australia, a Clinton presidency would mean little change in its relationship with the US. Both of Australia’s major parties have had <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaders-weigh-up-a-challenging-year-of-transitions-in-the-australia-us-relationship-53211">good relations</a> with the Obama administration, and quietly backed Clinton when she pressured Obama to adopt more hawkish positions on the Middle East or towards Russia.</p>
<p>The impact of a Trump presidency is basically unknown, though. No serious candidate in the post-second world war period has been so unclear in their attitude to foreign policy. We know that Trump wants to stand up to <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/09/this-is-what-trumps-border-wall-could-cost-us.html">Mexico</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/07/donald-trump-says-he-favors-big-tariffs-on-chinese-exports/?_r=0">China</a>, <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/264598-trump-iran-deal-was-so-bad-its-suspicious">Iran</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-created-isis-obama-2016-1">Islamic State</a>; that he has a sneaking admiration for Russian President <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/12/donald-trump-putin-narcissism">Vladimir Putin</a>; and that his instincts fluctuate between bellicosity and withdrawal.</p>
<p>Clinton has a <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/10/inside-hillary-clintons-massive-foreign-policy-brain-trust/">team of foreign policy advisors</a> large enough to staff the United Nations. Trump <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-advisor-idUSMTZSAPEC2Q6G3JRH">has not revealed</a> any of his foreign policy team. It is possible that he regards foreign policy as rather akin to establishing a hotel chain overseas – after all there are Trump hotels in Rio, Bali and Panama.</p>
<p>If Trump becomes the nominee there will be some Republicans who will join his team out of sheer ambition and perhaps fear for their country. But almost all of his stated goals – bombing <a href="http://example.com/">Middle East oilfields</a>, getting Mexico to <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/02/26/gop-debate-donald-trump-former-mexican-president-fox-build-wall-03.cnn">build a wall</a> along the frontier, ending <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/us-china-trade-reform">trade deals</a> with China – are soundbites, not policy proposals.</p>
<p>It is impossible to make any sensible predictions of how a Trump presidency would engage with the rest of the world. But it might be rather like suddenly discovering Putin is on our side. </p>
<p>Speaking with comedian Jerry Seinfeld, Barack Obama <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-05/bevan-craziness-of-politics/7068732">observed that</a> a “pretty sizable percentage” of world leaders are crazy. Let’s hope he wasn’t speaking of his successor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55576/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Altman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The impact of a Trump presidency is basically unknown. No serious candidate in the post-second world war period has been so unclear in their attitude to foreign policy.Dennis Altman, Professorial Fellow in Human Security, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/555622016-03-02T06:23:27Z2016-03-02T06:23:27ZSuper Tuesday sees Trump and Clinton triumph: scholars around the globe react<p><em>On Super Tuesday, voters from more than a dozen U.S. states voted in presidential primaries with important consequences for the candidates. We asked three scholars in different parts of the world to comment on the results and what they mean for the presidential race going forward.</em></p>
<h2>What now for the Republicans?</h2>
<p><strong>Bryan Cranston, Ph.D. Candidate in Politics and History, Swinburne University of Technology</strong></p>
<p>In 2015, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/22/donald-trump-wont-win-republican-presidential-nomination">political</a> <a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicans-2016-what-to-do-with-the-donald/">pundits</a> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-06/who-thinks-donald-trump-can-and-can-t-win-the-republican-presidential-nomination-">universally</a> agreed that Donald Trump could not win the Republican nomination. Following Super Tuesday’s results, it appears that everything we know about presidential nominating contests is wrong – Trump appears on the verge of becoming the Republican nominee.</p>
<p>Trump is not the unifying figure his party needs. While the polls were open on Super Tuesday, House Speaker Paul Ryan issued a stern rebuke implicitly aimed at Trump, saying that the Republican nominee – whoever it ends up being – needs to <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/paul-ryan-2016-nominee-reject-bigotry-220029">reject bigotry</a>. Senator Lindsey Graham, who has a <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/lindsey-graham-ted-cruz-dinner/">strong dislike</a> of Ted Cruz, <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/01/lindsey-graham-we-may-be-in-a-position-where-we-have-to-rally-around-ted-cruz-video/">said</a> the Republican Party may:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… have to rally around Ted Cruz as the only way to stop Donald Trump.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Late last week it was <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/sabato-trump-carson-fiorina-wont-win-warns-gop-will-be-rip/article/2572807">reported</a> that Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell had encouraged his Senate colleagues facing reelection to run ads distancing themselves and attacking Trump if they feel he is hurting their campaigns.</p>
<p>Two days later, the Senate’s number two Republican, John Cornyn, <a href="http://atr.rollcall.com/cornyn-gop-incumbents-separate-trump/?dcz=">echoed</a> McConnell. Later the same day, Ben Sasse, a Republican senator from Nebraska with strong Tea Party backing, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/29/politics/ben-sasse-donald-trump-endorsement/">tweeted</a> he would not vote for Trump and would instead look to support a third-party candidate.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"704144755509305344"}"></div></p>
<p>The commonly held belief is that that Trump will lose badly in the general election. Republican senators are thus refocusing their efforts to be a <a href="https://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/mitch-mcconnell-republicans-will-drop-trump-like-a-hot-rock-if-he-wins-the-nomination/">bulwark against a Hillary Clinton presidency</a>.</p>
<p>The Republican Party is in a state of utter chaos. At a meeting of Republican governors on February 20, Maine Governor Paul LePage <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html">disavowed</a> Trump and called for his colleagues to do the same. Exactly one week later, he <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/paul-lepage-donald-trump-endorsement/">endorsed</a> Trump’s candidacy. This highlights that major figures in the party don’t know what to do.</p>
<p>Perhaps most telling is the fact that conservative billionaires Sheldon Adelson and Charles and David Koch (who were prolific donors in 2012) have thus far failed to indicate any interest in this year’s contest, despite <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/01/27/381954047/koch-brothers-put-price-tag-on-2016-889-million">saying</a> in January 2015 that they were prepared to spend US$900 million to elect a Republican president.</p>
<p>If this was any other year, the Republican Party would be rallying around their presumptive nominee, and preparing for a general election contest. Instead, could we see the first brokered convention since 1952? Or will 2016 resemble 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt led a major third-party bid to deny fellow Republican William Howard Taft reelection? Is this what Adelson and the Kochs are waiting for? </p>
<p>Regardless, 2016 looks set to be the most interesting presidential election in decades.</p>
<h2>The role of the youth vote</h2>
<p><strong>Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, Director of <a href="http://civicyouth.org/">CIRCLE</a> at the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service, Tufts University</strong></p>
<p>This primary season, voters under age 30 have proven that they are both willing to vote <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/03/01/yes-college-students-are-voting-but-that-doesn-mean-they-tell-you-who-they-voting-for/lu8kIacR0TBMF5i0xo54iJ/story.html#comments">even when it is inconvenient</a> and poised to <a href="http://civicyouth.org/youthvote2016/">assert their influence on key races</a>. Analyzing data from early contests in Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina, my colleagues and I at <a href="http://www.civicyouth.org">CIRCLE</a> observed two trends in youth voting. </p>
<p>First, young voters were overwhelmingly supporting Senator Bernie Sanders, and voting in high – but not record – numbers. On the other hand, Republican youth were <a href="http://civicyouth.org/quick-facts/2016-election-center/#Cumulative">coming out in record numbers</a> but not rallying around just one candidate. </p>
<p>As Super Tuesday winds down, exit polls indicate that young Democratic voters had a strong showing and much of that was still motivated by their enthusiasm for Sanders. His surprise win in four states – Vermont, Colorado, Oklahoma and Minnesota – no doubt has to do with youth participation and enthusiasm. In all states except for Alabama, young voters chose Sanders over Hillary Clinton with comfortable margins – including the South, where he was expected to lose even among youth. </p>
<p>In Arkansas, where Bill Clinton served as governor, young voters stood out by choosing to support Sanders by <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ar/Dem">62 percent to 38 percent</a> in spite of older voters’ strong support for Clinton. In Oklahoma, 80 percent of youth <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ok/Dem">voted for Sanders</a>. Tonight’s results suggest that Sanders’ appeal to youth potentially crosses race, gender, and geographical boundaries. </p>
<p>On the Republican side, young people are less decisive than older voters, who overwhelmingly went for Trump. Voters under 30 supported Trump in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. But they backed Ted Cruz in Arkansas and Marco Rubio in Virginia. And Cruz and Rubio shared the top spot in Texas.</p>
<p>Compared to Democrat youth, the Republican youth were a smaller share of the voters in today’s primaries, a result of the huge turnout rates by Republicans of all ages. In fact, the absolute number of youth who voted was at a record high – suggesting that young Republicans could be an important force in the general election. </p>
<h2>Could Trump attract the odd Sanders voter?</h2>
<p><strong>Gina Reinhardt, Lecturer, Department of Government, University of Essex</strong></p>
<p>After these results, it’s clear to most that Bernie Sanders’ run for the presidency will soon be over. His victories in Vermont and Oklahoma notwithstanding, Hillary Clinton is steaming toward the 2,382 delegates needed to win the nomination, and his chances of catching up to her are slim.</p>
<p>It’s easy to think that Sanders’ supporters will fall behind Clinton when he’s no longer in the race, but don’t be too sure. Sanders’ surprising success so far has been based on his criticism of the establishment, his pleas for common sense, and his appeal to individuals – small donors. Who else in the race purports to represent the same ideals? Donald Trump.</p>
<p>True, Trump and Sanders could not be more different on their views on immigration, wealth inequality, race relations or, indeed, what “common sense” actually is. But so far, the campaigns have not focused on actual policy prescriptions. The debates have been about broad ideas and catchy slogans. And in some of the broader strokes, Trump and Sanders are strangely similar.</p>
<p>Trump has focused on running as a Washington outsider; Sanders considers himself a socialist, until this year one of the most “outside” of traditional American politics a candidate could claim to be. And like Trump, Sanders proves his mettle by raising millions without attracting a lot of big donors.</p>
<p>Trump is running as a Republican, but many longtime Republicans doubt his loyalty to party ideals, and he has donated heavily to Democrats over the years. Sanders is running as a Democrat, but he holds his Senate seat as an independent. Crucially, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/01/26/trump-and-sanders-allow-partisans-to-stick-with-their-parties-while-also-rejecting-them/">Yanna Krupnikov and Samara Klar</a> argue, both Trump and Sanders:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… allow people to reject the establishment without having to leave their own party.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Certainly, a great many Sanders supporters will move on to Clinton, some of them happily. But others will wish they had a different choice. Perhaps Trump can pull a few his way. And if that seems far-fetched, just think of everything else that’s happened so far in this cycle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Yannitell Reinhardt has previously received funding from the US National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg receives funding from WT Grant Foundation, Corporation for National and Community Service, and Spencer Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bryan Cranston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our global newsroom responds to the Super Tuesday primary results in the race for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees.Bryan Cranston, Ph.D. Candidate in Politics and History, Swinburne University of TechnologyGina Yannitell Reinhardt, Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexKei Kawashima-Ginsberg, Director, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement in the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/554322016-02-29T23:35:15Z2016-02-29T23:35:15ZElizabeth Warren is savvy not to endorse Clinton or Sanders<p>Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is the <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/elizabeth-warren-2016-endorsement-217731">most sought-after endorsement</a> in the raucous Democratic presidential primary contest. </p>
<p>It’s all bit odd for a senator who has been in office only since 2012 and who <a href="http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2012/11/6/warren-wins-senate-election/">beat incumbent Senator Scott Brown by just 10 points</a> as Massachusetts went for Barack Obama over its own former Republican governor, Mitt Romney, by a much wider margin – <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2012/general/mass-us-president-election-results-2012.html">23 points</a>. And, as any political scientist will tell you, the capacity of one key endorsement to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1940161208321948">move votes</a> is complicated at best.</p>
<p>So why then do Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton adherents so want an Elizabeth Warren endorsement?</p>
<p>The answer is simple: Warren is the unifying voice for Democrats. She is the trusted arbiter who could make the other side “see the light” and rally around the party’s eventual nominee. </p>
<h2>No love lost</h2>
<p>Right now, among the hard-core party loyalists who are most likely to vote in primaries, there is no love lost between Bernie and Hillary supporters:</p>
<p>“He <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/bernie-sanders-2016-democrats-121181">isn’t even a Democrat</a>!”</p>
<p>“He has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/22/bernie-sanders-insists-hes-not-a-one-issue-candidate-but-he-kind-of-is/">one issue</a> – class politics – and <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/02/05/sanders-flunks-foreign-policy/GWrAOFsErQPVgC4l0Tv52L/story.html">can’t talk foreign policy</a>!”</p>
<p>“She embodies how the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/25/us/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-democratic-party-iowa-new-hampshire.html?_r=0">Democratic Party went wrong by going corporate</a>!”</p>
<p>“She is <a href="http://freebeacon.com/politics/msnbc-most-voters-still-do-not-view-clinton-as-honest-or-trustworthy/">not trustworthy</a>!”</p>
<p>And those are the substantive critiques. Scroll down in article comment sections if you dare.</p>
<p>Elizabeth Warren appeals to both the Sanders and Clinton camps. And importantly, she is holding onto the power to bring them together by remaining silent on an endorsement before Super Tuesday.</p>
<h2>More to gain by remaining silent</h2>
<p>If Warren were to endorse Clinton, Sanders supporters would have to take seriously that Warren, the leading analytic and elected voice on “how the system is rigged” – the person who publicly named and effectively shamed <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRSJ4v8ayXY">credit card companies,</a> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/business/dealbook/senator-warren-to-join-call-to-alter-sales-of-distressed-loans.html?_r=0">mortgage lenders</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haoKLe3rJxc">student loans providers</a> – does not see him as the standard-bearer of this fight. It would lend legitimacy to the notion that while Warren may see Sanders as most ably analyzing the sources of downward economic mobility, real questions exist as to how he could manage the whole of the presidency and connect with communities of color given <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-south-carolina-primaries/471336/">the South Carolina results</a>. </p>
<p>If Warren were to endorse Sanders, Clinton supporters would have to consider how a leading woman of roughly the same cohort as Secretary of State Clinton parted ways with her and what that means for Clinton’s ability to truly take on Wall Street. A Sanders endorsement also turns Clinton’s willingness to deal on policy from a governing strength to character flaw that would spell doom for progressive causes – especially on economic equity. </p>
<h2>Deafening and golden</h2>
<p>Senator Warren has not endorsed, then, because her silence is more powerful.</p>
<p>Withholding support from Clinton signals that Clinton must meaningfully and substantively go left on economic policy. It does so without harming Warren’s own high marks from the Sanders crowd. </p>
<p>Warren’s silence also preserves her ability to be the “uniter” among the warring wings of the Democratic Party come convention time. Both Clinton and Sanders supporters will be disappointed Warren did not come their way earlier, but this summer in Philadelphia, her alignment with the eventual Democratic nominee will help tell the losing faction, “it’s OK to come home.”</p>
<p>Make no mistake – this was a bold move for Senator Warren. </p>
<p>The feel-good events with all the Democratic <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/30/politics/hillary-clinton-elizabeth-warren-fundraiser/">female senators</a> – except Warren – rang forth the historical nature of Hillary Clinton’s candidacy and what her victory could mean. Research consistently shows that electing women to congress and state houses leads to a <a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/D/bo3632862.html">legislative policy agenda</a> that better reflects women’s interests. We have no research on how a female presidency would advance women – because in the 200-plus years of the republic it has not happened. From a symbolic standpoint, giving Secretary Clinton the cold shoulder came with potential costs – especially as the <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/">Democratic establishment</a> and entire <a href="http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/12/hillary_clinton_rolls_out_masa.html">Massachusetts delegation</a>, including a <a href="http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/is_us_sen_elizabeth_warren_end.html">unified female contingent</a>, is firmly #TeamHRC.</p>
<p>And by giving the <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/01/30/ceo-daily-saturday-january-30th/">wink/nod to Bernie</a>, but not endorsing him, Warren ran the risk of losing her considerable cache among Democratic progressives who rightfully note the ways Wall Street has not paid for crumbling the economy and the subsequent shock waves that it sent through most Americans’ economic lives – <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/report/2012/04/12/11423/the-state-of-communities-of-color-in-the-u-s-economy/">especially communities of color</a>. These progressives draw a straight line from the way Wall Street was allowed to wreak havoc on American lives and the declining economic mobility of the last four decades and the <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/15195/surrender">Democratic Party’s culpability in it</a>. Given the policy chops that brought Warren to D.C., political purity would suggest she #FeeltheBern.</p>
<h2>Risks and payoff</h2>
<p>So Warren’s silence came with risks. But as the brutal primary season pushes to Super Tuesday, Senator Warren’s calculated distance balances ideology and pragmatism, heart and electoral map, demographic and economic change. In doing all this so masterfully, Senator Warren’s already bright star among the Democratic Party has emblazoned. Street cred among economic progressives and strategic cred among the establishment remains intact.</p>
<p>And Senator Warren did all this on her terms. She has pushed the party to the economic left while remaining publicly above the fray. Come the convention in Philadelphia, expect a prime-time speech that unites, emboldens, and mobilizes the Democratic Party. Her speech will draw heavily on the policy vision tellingly offered in <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/2016/02/29/how-level-playing-field-for-working-families/vOsSvroKc8D78uROQHfq0N/story.html">the Boston Globe</a> the day before the Massachusetts primary and Super Tuesday. Either Hillary or Bernie could pick up this vision, although, arguably, Sanders has far less distance to go. </p>
<p>There will be calls for Warren to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wade-norris/bernie-sanders-hints-eliz_b_8928406.html">take on the vice presidential slot</a>. In my view, she will decline. The speech will be enough and, <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/04/elizabeth-warren-pccc-senate-democrats">as she showed in the 2014 cycle</a>, expect hard work from Warren across the country politicking for the Democratic White House ticket as well as in key Senate, House and gubernatorial races.</p>
<p>And, in 2020, depending on Democratic fortunes, expect a chorus calling for Senator Elizabeth Warren to run for the presidency. And that chorus – importantly – will sing with the voices of Bernie, Hillary and Obama supporters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55432/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin O'Brien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Neither Democratic candidate for president has gotten the endorsement of Massachusetts’ junior senator. Here’s a look at Elizabeth Warren’s long game playbook.Erin O'Brien, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/553602016-02-29T20:02:41Z2016-02-29T20:02:41ZHow America’s overseas voters could swing the 2016 election<p>The 2016 Democratic and Republican primaries have already been an astonishing spectacle. Anti-establishment candidates Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have turned traditional wisdom about what is politically feasible in the US on its head. They have created a situation where the unpredictable is now normal and where candidates who, even recently, looked like unassailable contenders, are having to fight for every last vote.</p>
<p>So, as the most dramatic “Super Tuesday” in recent years arrives, a key group of up to 6m American voters – one that’s been largely overlooked – may end up playing a more important role than ever. American expats have played a critical role in US elections in the past, and 2016 may see them do so again. </p>
<p>We’ve analysed this important constituency in a new report, <a href="http://www.rai.ox.ac.uk/news/americas-overseas-voters-how-they-could-decide-us-presidency-2016">America’s Overseas Voters: How they could decide the US Presidency in 2016</a>. </p>
<p>On March 1, Democrats Abroad, the expat wing of the Democratic party, will hold its global primary, with polling stations open across the world. Democrats Abroad is recognised as a “state” for primary voting purposes, and will send roughly the same number of delegates to the Democratic National Convention as will smaller states such as Wyoming or Alaska. </p>
<p>Given that the Clinton–Sanders contest has been much tighter than expected and that Sanders has <a href="http://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-just-won-two-of-his-biggest-endorsements-in-a-long-campaign/">reiterated his intention to run the race to the finish</a>, it’s not unrealistic to imagine that the expat delegates could play an outsize role in the outcome.</p>
<p>The Republican Party doesn’t have the same formal process for expats to send delegates to the party convention, where the presidential candidate will be formally nominated. But Republicans Overseas has been working hard to encourage its members to vote in their home state primaries through absentee ballots. </p>
<h2>Political impact</h2>
<p>Anyone who’s sceptical about the impact of expat voters needs only to think back to the 2000 presidential election, when overseas ballots provided the push that finally put George W. Bush in the White House. As we write in our <a href="http://www.rai.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/RAI%20--%20VOTE%202016%20FULL%20REPORT%2022.2.16.pdf">report</a>, had that election been decided on the ballots that arrived by the 26 November deadline, Al Gore would have won the state of Florida, and therefore the presidential election, by 202 votes.</p>
<p>Overseas voters also donate large sums of money to presidential candidates. The parties clearly know this: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35643210">Howard Dean</a>, former presidential candidate and Democratic National Committee chairman, visited London the week before Super Tuesday to raise funds and help get out the expat vote.</p>
<p>While they do not have their own primary or caucus, members of Republicans Overseas were able to register their support for their chosen candidate online. The results of that poll, which included voters from 67 countries, were <a href="http://www.republicansoverseas-uk.com/ro_straw_poll_results">released at the end of January</a>, and indicated that the Republican electorate around the world is noticeably more moderate than that in the US.</p>
<p>Our report also looks at how the parties’ relationships with overseas US voters relates to the state of each organisation within the US. </p>
<p>Both Democrats Abroad and organisations representing expat Republican voters are ambitious, and they are both working hard to develop exciting and effective ways to represent party members and the wider overseas US community. But Democrats Abroad is much more deeply embedded into the national party structure – which provides that organisation with significant advantages over the Republican organisations operating outside the US. </p>
<p>Its closeness to the Democratic Party in the US and the genuine voting opportunities it provides mean it can more easily generate enthusiasm among expats. In many ways, this difference between a highly organised and outward-looking Democratic party and a more domestically focused and less polished Republican party seems to mirror the domestic party set-ups.</p>
<p>But just as delegates in the Democratic Primaries, and even the Presidential election, overlook the expat vote at their peril, so a charismatic candidate can still undermine all of the best organisation a political party can muster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay Sexton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If more Democrats living abroad had voted in 2000, Al Gore might have become president.Jay Sexton, Director of the Rothermere American Institute and Fellow in American History, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/555222016-02-29T16:51:41Z2016-02-29T16:51:41ZSuper Tuesday: five things to remember on Trump’s big night<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113234/original/image-20160229-4083-104o3br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could he soon start flagging?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-283689917/stock-photo-donald-trump-speaks-at-the-first-in-the-nation-leadership-summit-in-nashua-nh-on-april.html?src=nkrWeFdfx19pshneLu5b6A-1-0">Andrew Cline</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March 1 is America’s “<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/29/politics/trump-clinton-dominant-as-super-tuesday-looms/index.html">Super Tuesday</a>”, the day when a <a href="http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/super-tuesday-2016/">plethora of states and territories</a> will hold presidential primaries and caucuses to pick the parties’ presidential nominees. While Hillary Clinton, having just avenged her defeat in New Hampshire <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/27/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-south-carolina-primary">by demolishing Bernie Sanders</a> is widely expected to have a good night, onlookers will be be wondering how far Donald Trump can take his shockingly successful run for the Republican nomination. </p>
<p>Here are five things to bear in mind as the results come in.</p>
<h2>#1: It’s all about delegates</h2>
<p>We know that winning a primary or caucus is important, but it’s easy to forget why. The point of the primaries is to narrow down the field of candidates by <a href="http://www.bustle.com/articles/139315-how-do-delegates-work-these-candidate-representatives-play-a-huge-role-in-who-gets-nominated">assigning them delegates</a>, allocated mostly according to the results of primary elections in the states. The delegates vote for the candidates at the party’s presidential nominating conventions in the summer, where the candidate with the most delegates becomes that party’s nominee for the general election. </p>
<p>In the Republican race there are 2,472 delegates up for grabs overall, and the <a href="https://www.gop.com/the-official-guide-to-the-2016-republican-nominating-process/">overwhelming majority</a> are state delegates allocated during the primaries. So far, Trump has won 82 delegates, more than any other Republican candidate. That’s 6.6% of the 1,237 needed to win the nomination. </p>
<p>Super Tuesday sees 595 delegates up for grabs in 11 states holding contests for the Republican nomination, more than any other day in the primary season. So the question won’t be who wins the most states, but who wins the most delegates. </p>
<p>Here’s how the delegates are distributed across the Super Tuesday states (Colorado and Wyoming will be holding caucuses on the day, but will not allocate their delegates based on the results).</p>
<iframe src="https://charts.datawrapper.de/1jKgN/index.html" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<h2>#2: The party leadership doesn’t love Trump</h2>
<p>Each of Super Tuesday’s states (except Georgia) has three “party” Republican delegates available. These delegates are the state party chair, the national committeeman and national committeewoman, and <a href="http://frontloading.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/the-new-hampshire-delegate-count-and.html">it is unclear</a> how they will vote (in some states, they are allocated like the rest of the delegates; in others, they are free to vote how they choose).</p>
<p>Although small in number, Super Tuesday’s 30 party delegates total more than either Alaska or Vermont have regular delegates (not to mention New Hampshire). These delegates are party leaders, and party leaders are currently <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html">not fans of Donald Trump</a>.</p>
<h2>#3: Most Republicans don’t love Trump</h2>
<p>The chart below shows that Trump has received a total of 33% of the Republican primary votes so far. That means 67% of voters do not support him.</p>
<iframe src="https://charts.datawrapper.de/dbaF4/index.html" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="286"></iframe>
<p>We haven’t seen strong opposition to Trump because currently, that 67% are splitting their votes among several other candidates. As the field narrows, these voters will redistribute their votes, and polls show that they won’t be putting them behind Trump. Trump is the first choice of more primary voters than any other, but he is the <a href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf">second choice of almost no-one</a>.</p>
<h2>#4: Texas doesn’t love Trump</h2>
<p>Texas has more Republican delegates in play than any other state on Super Tuesday; in the entire contest, only California (to vote on June 7) will have more. In fact, at 155, Texas alone has more delegates available than have been allocated in the primaries so far. It’s no coincidence that the <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/republican-debate-houston/471120/">last Republican debate</a> was held in Houston.</p>
<p>Texas also has a history of supporting its own. So even though Texas senator Ted Cruz was viewed as <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/02/26/top-takeaways-texas-republican-debate/80962816/">marginalised</a>, and Trump took up <a href="http://presidential-candidates.insidegov.com/stories/11155/republican-debate-super-tuesday">roughly a third of the talking time</a> in the Houston debate, <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-republican/">forecasters</a> estimate there’s still an 82% chance that Cruz will win Texas.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean, however, that Cruz will win all 155 Texan delegates. In contrast to the primaries occurring later in the year, Republican primaries held prior to March 15 allocate delegates on a proportional basis. That means “winning” Super Tuesday doesn’t just mean winning states, but also winning a lot of the people in those states. And this is where Trump could have an advantage.</p>
<h2>#5: Super Tuesday isn’t winner-take-all</h2>
<p>In order to get delegates in a particular state, a candidate has to achieve a minimum threshold of votes. If a candidate receives less than the required threshold, the votes that would have gone to them are often reallocated to the state winner. These thresholds heavily favour the frontrunner, which bodes well for Trump outside of Texas.</p>
<p>Even rigorous forecasting sites such as <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/">FiveThirtyEight</a> are not ready to predict the voting outcome in all of Tuesday’s primaries, let alone the delegate count. But let’s say the Republican candidates perform as the folks at <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com">FiveThirtyEight</a> and <a href="http://www.politico.com">Politico</a> are currently expecting. </p>
<p>Given each state’s number of “bound” delegates and thresholds and the <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/super-tuesday-2016-everything-you-need-to-know-219849">predictions</a> for <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-republican/">each state’s allocation of votes</a>, we can translate the <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/super-tuesday-2016-everything-you-need-to-know-219849">polling predictions</a> into convention delegates. If they’re accurate, the rough allocation of Super Tuesday votes would give the most to Trump (173 votes), followed by Marco Rubio (119), Ted Cruz (93), Ben Carson (21), and John Kasich (11). But crucially, at the end of the day, 178 of the night’s 595 delegates would still be unbound.</p>
<p>So the question is not whether Trump will “win” Super Tuesday; he’s very likely to get more delegates than any other candidate. The question is what will happen afterwards – when Kasich and Carson eventually drop out, their supporters in subsequent primaries are likely to move to Rubio and Cruz. And when we move to the winner-takes-all delegate allocation, this could be enough to inch one of the remaining candidates ahead of Trump.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Yannitell Reinhardt has previously received funding from the US National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Trump doesn’t have it in the bag yet, but there are still ways he can triumph.Gina Yannitell Reinhardt, Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/538532016-02-26T01:43:03Z2016-02-26T01:43:03ZWhy Bernie will burn out in Dixie<p>Approaching the fourth contest in the Democratic presidential derby, we remain without a clear-cut favorite. This despite the “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/upshot/hillary-clinton-and-inevitability-this-time-is-different.html?_r=1">inevitability</a>” of Hillary Clinton this time last year.</p>
<p>Things have changed: Bernie appears to be a threat.</p>
<p>Yes, Bernie <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/analysis-hillary-clintons-win-nevada-bernie-sanders-continues/story?id=37061040">lost Nevada</a> by six percentage points. </p>
<p>But he’s only down by five percentage points nationally, reducing the margin by eight points in the week or so, suggesting that the gap between him and Hillary <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html">is narrowing</a>. </p>
<p>Further, he did well in Iowa, losing by less than one percent, and he handily won the New Hampshire primary by 20 points. This has led some of Bernie’s backers to conclude <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/analysis-hillary-clintons-win-nevada-bernie-sanders-continues/story?id=37061040">he still has a chance</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond that, he’s also giving Hillary <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bernie-sanderss-fundraising-prowess-boosts-his-post-new-hampshire-efforts/2016/02/10/d935d504-cf42-11e5-b2bc-988409ee911b_story.html">a run for her money</a> on the fundraising front, and using these resources to challenge her in South Carolina.</p>
<p>It’s true that Hillary seems to dominate on total delegate count: 503-70. But that’s only when superdelegates are included. <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/23/opinions/superdelegates-democratic-party-kohn/">Superdelegates</a> – delegates that have chosen sides independent of the nomination process and who are free to change their minds – are limited to only 15 percent of the total delegate count. Leaving them aside, Bernie trails by only a single pledged delegate: 52-51. </p>
<p>So, can Bernie still win the nomination? </p>
<p>In my view, he really can’t, because <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/18/new-poll-shows-that-black-voters-really-arent-feeling-the-bern/">black people</a> won’t vote for him.</p>
<h2>Different demographics in the South</h2>
<p>Consider the recent contest in Nevada. He <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/NV">captured</a> 42 percent of the minority vote, but only 22 percent of the black vote. Reports that he carried the Latino vote are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/upshot/why-clinton-not-sanders-probably-won-the-hispanic-vote-in-nevada.html?_r=0">open to serious question</a>. </p>
<p>On “Super Tuesday,” March 1, seven of the scheduled contests will take place in southern states: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Blacks, on average, constitute roughly 25 percent of registered voters in these states. This is a problem for Sanders. </p>
<p>Recall that Bernie <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/NV">lost Nevada</a> by six percent in a state in which blacks were only 13 percent of the electorate. I predict that, in these southern states in which the black electorate is twice the size it is in Nevada, Bernie will get blown out. </p>
<p>Here are three reasons March 1 won’t be super for Sanders.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>After centuries of white folks making promises, Bernie’s “pie-in-the-sky” <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-south-carolina-black-voters/470646/">appeals</a> to end police brutality, mass incarceration and sentencing disparities by race are long on generalities, but short on specifics. </p>
<p>Given our history, blacks are too pragmatic, even cynical, to play Charlie Brown to Bernie’s Lucy. In his “Letter from Birmingham Jail,” Martin Luther King Jr. <a href="http://www.uscrossier.org/pullias/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/king.pdf">indicates</a> the ways in which history has taught black folk to be wary of promises made by white folks. </p>
<p>In the present case, with a focus on economic issues, Bernie claims that <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/bernie-sanders-makes-direct-appeal-black-voters">racism and income inequality</a> are “parallel problems,” suggesting that correcting the former will remedy the latter. </p>
<p>This reduces race and racism to class. <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/bernie-sanders-liberal-imagination/425022/">Class-based</a> remedies, as Ta-Nehisi Coates and others have argued, will fail to make black people whole. They’re right. Has anyone heard of the New Deal? </p>
<p>The New Deal was essentially pitched as a means of making whole those most affected by the Great Depression: <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/search?q=freedom+from+fear&cc=us&lang=en">the lower classes</a>. Of course, this included far more black than white folk. But, like almost everything else, the New Deal became racialized: many of its provisions <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674007116">deliberately excluded blacks</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>A history of economic and social oppression, reinforced by black information networks, like churches, social clubs and music, paves the way for making race <a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo3628408.html">a salient identity</a> among blacks. As a result, <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674325401">race-targeted policies</a>, like those aimed at the amelioration of racism, gain traction with the two-thirds of blacks for whom race is salient. </p>
<p>Since Bernie’s policy proposals are almost exclusively tailored to fit the class struggle, and not the freedom struggle, his solutions will fail to curry favor with most blacks.</p></li>
<li><p>There is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-sanders-blacks-idUSMTZSAPEC2CG4VQ3S">reason to believe</a> that Bernie appeals to young black voters. Even so, among political scientists, it is almost an article of faith that the <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674942936">youth are less vigorous</a> in their commitment to politics than their elders, even when the stakes are high.</p>
<p>To be sure, Hillary has her problems. Her support of the Crime Bill in 1994 – in addition to her references to some black youth as “<a href="http://www.wired.com/2016/02/whichhillary/">super predators</a>,” will continue to damage her standing among young black voters. But this appears to be a generational divide between older and younger black folk. The former are likely <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-south-carolina-black-voters/470646/">to forgive her</a> support of the bill – if not the utterance – as a product of the time in which we lived.</p>
<p>Further, her presence in the black community predates the current election cycle, unlike Bernie’s. This, in addition to the forceful way in which <a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-democrats-race-economy-20160225-story.html">she addresses</a> sources of racism, deploring white privilege and continuing bigotry, should give her the advantage among black voters. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>The Democrat primary season has a long way to go, perhaps even through June. If, however, I am correct – <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-goldwater-can-win-the-gop-nomination-why-not-trump-46981">as I was</a> with Trump – Bernie will feel the heat long before then. I’m thinking March 1, in good ol’ Dixie.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Sanders can’t win the South without the support of black voters, and he doesn’t have that.Christopher Sebastian Parker, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/57392012-03-07T00:45:32Z2012-03-07T00:45:32ZExplainer: Super Tuesday<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8388/original/ndgmzw74-1331079008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters elect delegates who pledge support to a particular candidate.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Michael Reynolds</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Super Tuesday is billed as the most important day for any US presidential nomination contest, and this year it’s more fascinating than ever. Fewer states are voting than usual and the Republican party is divided over which brand of conservatism it wants to take to the presidential election later this year.</p>
<p>As Republican candidates Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul face off across ten states, we asked US political expert Dr John Hart to explain how Super Tuesday works, and what today’s result might mean in the long run.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>What is Super Tuesday?</strong></p>
<p>Super Tuesday is the name given to the earliest date on the primary calendar when most US states have an opportunity to schedule their primary or caucus [where voters elect delegates who pledge support to candidates].</p>
<p>It’s called “Super” Tuesday because in the past large numbers of states have tried to have their primary and caucuses as early as possible so they can have some influence over the outcome.</p>
<p>The thing about this year though, is that there are fewer states involved. There are only 10 compared to 24 in 2008. It’s a not-so-super Tuesday this year.</p>
<p>This is due to changes in the Republican party rules about how states should conduct their primary, and also because of the budgetary situation in a lot of states where they can no longer afford to run a separate state primary for the presidential election and another primary later on in the year for all the other state offices. </p>
<p>States such as California, which went on Super Tuesday in 2008, have now pushed their primary back to the first week of June so they can combine their presidential primary with the primary for state political offices and hence save a hell of a lot of money. This is of course because California is broke at the moment. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8390/original/wgdqdbv4-1331079151.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8390/original/wgdqdbv4-1331079151.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8390/original/wgdqdbv4-1331079151.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8390/original/wgdqdbv4-1331079151.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8390/original/wgdqdbv4-1331079151.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8390/original/wgdqdbv4-1331079151.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8390/original/wgdqdbv4-1331079151.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ohio will be crucial for Romney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Michael Reynolds</span></span>
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<p><strong>How do primaries work?</strong></p>
<p>A primary is an election in which anybody who is on the electoral roll and has signified that they wish to vote in either the Democratic Party primary or the Republican Party primary can vote. </p>
<p>They vote for delegates to the national party convention, who have pledged to support one candidate or another. So in the Republican party if you were voting in Massachusetts and you wanted to see Mitt Romney as the party’s nominee, you would go into the primary and vote for a delegate who had pledged to support him. </p>
<p><strong>Is Super Tuesday as important this year as it has been in the past?</strong></p>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/David Maxwell</span></span>
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<p>Super Tuesday has been important in the past because so many states have held their primaries then. Somewhere near half the total number of delegates to the convention have usually been chosen by that point. So in effect the front-loading of the primary schedule, which sees so many states going as early as possible has really closed off the nomination contest. In previous years you’ve more or less known who the candidate for the parties are going to be by Super Tuesday.</p>
<p>This year, no matter how well Mitt Romney does in the big primaries, he’s not going to end up with an overwhelming lead in delegate support whereby the media could turn round and say he’s got the nomination wrapped up.</p>
<p><strong>Is there a possibility for a brokered convention this year?</strong></p>
<p>I think it’s very unlikely that any other Republican but Mitt Romney will be in the lead in terms of delegate votes at the convention. But it’s very possible that Romney might not have an absolute majority of delegate votes, which is going to be 1,144 on the first ballot.</p>
<p>The rules in the party are that if there’s no candidate with the majority of votes in the first ballot, you hold another one, and another one, and another one until such time as there is a majority. But the delegates are freed from their pledges to support a particular candidate after the first ballot. </p>
<p>So Romney could go to the convention ahead in terms of delegate votes but with Santorum, Paul and Gingrich actually having between them a majority of delegate votes, and not being willing to release their delegates to Romney. That would lead to a brokered convention with more than one ballot. It’s impossible to predict what would happen after that. There hasn’t been a party convention that has gone to more than one ballot in nearly 60 years. </p>
<p><strong>Which states will be most important this year?</strong></p>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Roy Dabner</span></span>
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<p>The key one state is Ohio, for two reasons. Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are running neck-and-neck in that state, and it’s a state with a sizeable number of delegates. 66 delegates are up for stake in Ohio today. </p>
<p>Romney initially had a lead, then Santorum built up some momentum in the state over the past three weeks and had a lead. But that lead seems to have been whittling away in the last few days.</p>
<p>But because of the particular way in which the vote of the public in the primary relates to the vote for delegates on a district basis in Ohio, Romney could win some districts, Santorum could win others.</p>
<p>It’s very likely that it’s going to be a fairly even spilt in Ohio. Although one candidate might win in the popular vote, it’s not going to make much difference in the delegate vote, and that’s what really counts. </p>
<p>The other state to watch is Georgia, where Newt Gingrich is ahead. It’s his own home state where he’s likely to win and I think that will revive his flagging candidacy and deprive Romney of a win in yet another southern state, which is important to the Republican Party. If Gingrich doesn’t win in Georgia he’s more or less finished. Super Tuesday should see him out of the race.</p>
<p>Virginia is an interesting one because only two candidates are on the ballot. It’s only Romney and Ron Paul. A lot of Republicans have been wanting to see a straight contest between two conservatives, because in a sense what this nomination race has been about is “anybody but Mitt Romney”. In Virginia this will actually happen today – a straight race between Romney and one other conservative, Ron Paul. </p>
<p>Both Gingrich and Santorum failed to raise enough signatures to get their name on the ballot in Virginia, which is a sad comment on their organisational capacity. </p>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Erik S. Lesser</span></span>
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<p><strong>What is at the heart of the contest this year?</strong></p>
<p>The nomination contest this year has been a fight for the soul of Republican Party between various different forms of conservatism. That schism in the party is not likely to be resolved by today’s contest.</p>
<p>If Romney cleaned up in every single contest with more than 50% of the vote in each state, you might say, “Okay, it’s beginning to look like it’s all over.” But so far Mitt Romney hasn’t won a single contest with more than 50% of the vote. </p>
<p>The key thing to remember is that there’s the politics of it all, which you read about in the paper every day, but also this is contest where the rules of the game affect the outcome.</p>
<p>The rules of the game in a presidential nomination contest are very media unfriendly, which is why a lot of commentators try to ignore or oversimplify them. But the rules play a big role here and can explain a lot. You’ve got to be a real political junkie to get involved in that kind of technical detail about how the system operates, but it’s a fact that the way the system operates will partly explain the outcomes of today’s primaries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/5739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Super Tuesday is billed as the most important day for any US presidential nomination contest, and this year it’s more fascinating than ever. Fewer states are voting than usual and the Republican party…John Hart, Reader in Political Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.