tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/tasmanian-politics-13771/articlesTasmanian politics – The Conversation2024-03-23T11:16:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263982024-03-23T11:16:56Z2024-03-23T11:16:56ZLiberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority<p>Tasmania has five electorates that each return seven members using the proportional <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/info/Publications/HareClark.html">Hare-Clark system</a>, for a total of 35 seats. A quota is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%. In previous elections, the quota was 16.7%, with five members per electorate.</p>
<p>With over 60% of enrolled voters counted in all seats, the <a href="https://pollbludger.net/tas2024/Results/">Poll Bludger’s current projections</a> are that the Liberals will win 3.1 quotas in Bass, 3.7 in Braddon, 2.2 in Clark, 2.7 in Franklin and 3.0 in Lyons. Adding the likely wins in Braddon and Franklin gives them 15 of the 35 seats, three short of the 18 needed for a majority.</p>
<p>Labor is projected to win 2.3 quotas in Bass, 2.0 in Braddon, 2.4 in Clark, 2.2 in Franklin and 2.6 in Lyons, for a total of ten with a possible eleventh in Lyons. </p>
<p>The Greens are projected to win 1.0 quotas in Bass, 0.6 in Braddon, 1.6 in Clark, 1.6 in Franklin and 0.8 in Lyons, and would probably achieve a total of five with two more possible.</p>
<p>The Jacqui Lambie Network appears to have a strong chance to win the final seats in Bass and Braddon, and independent Kristie Johnston is likely to win the final seat in Clark. Former Labor MP David O'Byrne, running as an independent in Franklin, is in a contest with the Greens.</p>
<p>Overall vote share projections are currently 36.9% Liberals (down 11.8% since the 2021 election), 28.7% Labor (up 0.5%), 13.8% Greens (up 1.4%), 6.7% JLN (new) and 9.5% for independents.</p>
<p>Labor and the Greens appear to have performed a bit better than expected from pre-election polls and independents worse. This is likely to make it harder for the Liberals to form a government.</p>
<p><strong>Sunday morning update:</strong> Tasmanian <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/">analyst Kevin Bonham</a> expects three Liberals, two Labor, one Green and one JLN in Bass, three Liberals, two Labor, one JLN and one undecided contest between the Liberals and independent Craig Garland in Braddon, with the Liberals currently ahead.</p>
<p>In Clark, Bonham expects two Liberals, two Labor, one Green and independent Kristie Johnston, with the final seat a contest between Labor and the Greens, and the Greens ahead currently. In Franklin, three Liberals, two Labor, one Green and independent David O'Byrne are expected winners. In Lyons, three Liberals, two Labor, one Green, with the final seat a contest between Labor and JLN.</p>
<p>Adding this up gives a total outcome of 14 Liberals out of 35, ten Labor, four Greens, two JLN, two independents and three undecided. </p>
<p>Incumbent Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff last night <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-23/tas-state-election-results-live-blog/103619024">claimed victory</a>, but we need to wait for final results and for the decisions of the crossbenchers to be known before we know whether the Liberals have retained government in Tasmania.</p>
<h2>How does Hare-Clark work?</h2>
<p>Tasmania uses Robson rotation, where candidate names within a group are randomised for each ballot paper, to prevent one candidate from benefiting from being the top candidate from their group. This means parties can’t order their candidates.</p>
<p>For a formal vote, electors need to number at least seven preferences, but can keep numbering beyond seven if they wish. The process of formally electing candidates won’t start until all votes have been counted. </p>
<p>This is likely to occur on April 2, the <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/house-of-assembly/elections-2024/ways-to-vote/postal-voting.html">deadline for receipt</a> of postal votes.</p>
<p>Any candidate with more votes than the quota is declared elected, and their surplus votes will be passed on to remaining candidates at a fractional value. </p>
<p>After surpluses are distributed, remaining candidates will be excluded starting with the one with the lowest vote, and their votes transferred as preferences to remaining candidates. </p>
<p>This process continues until all seven vacancies in each electorate are filled. Owing to “exhausted” votes that have no preference between the final candidates, it is common for the last winners to have less than a quota.</p>
<h2>Labor gains Dunstan in SA state byelection</h2>
<p>With 48% of enrolled voters counted in the Liberal-held South Australian <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">Dunstan state byelection</a>, Labor has defeated the Liberals by a 52.9–47.1 margin, a 3.4% swing to Labor since the March 2022 state election. This seat was previously held by former Liberal premier Steven Marshall. This is a government gain from an opposition at a byelection.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 40.0% Liberals (down 6.7%), 32.3% Labor (down 2.9%), 22.4% Greens (up 8.8%) and 3.3% Animal Justice (new).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hours into the count in the Tasmanian election, the state can expect a hung parliament. Meanwhile, Labor is succeeding in a South Australian state byelection.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254552024-03-15T01:57:11Z2024-03-15T01:57:11ZDire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming<p>The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Polling-Tasmanian-Election-2024-Web.pdf">uComms poll</a> for The Australia Institute, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,174, gave the Liberals 37.1% of the vote, Labor 23.0%, the Greens 13.7%, the Jacqui Lambie Network 8.5%, independents 12.8% and others 5.0%.</p>
<p>The Liberals have governed since winning the 2014 election. If this poll’s Labor vote of 23% is accurate, that would be a dreadful result for Labor ten years after losing power.</p>
<p>By 46–36, respondents thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong, rather than right, direction. A breakdown by voting intentions shows large majorities of all non-Liberal voters thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the proportional Hare Clark system, with five electorates each returning seven members for a total of 35 lower house seats, up from 25 total seats at previous elections. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/ucomms-labor-23-how-much-stock-should.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said the Liberals would be expected to win 14 of the 35 seats if this poll is accurate, Labor ten, the Greens four, the JLN 2–3 and independents 4–5. The Liberals would be well short of the 18 needed for a majority, but much better placed to form government than Labor.</p>
<p>Bonham said that during the 2021 Tasmanian election campaign, uComms released a poll that greatly understated the Liberals. They have changed their methods since to include SMS as well as voice robopolling. They were accurate at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albaneses-ratings-surge-in-yougov-poll-tasmanian-poll-suggests-difficult-to-form-government-225083">federal Dunkley byelection</a>. Other recent Tasmanian polls also have the Liberals best placed to form a minority government.</p>
<h2>Queensland Newspoll: 54–46 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-queenslands-liberal-national-party-in-box-seat-for-majority-government/news-story/aac713de8fa9f0e67201bc0c64eae6e3">Newspoll</a>, conducted March 7–13 from a sample of 1,037, gave the Liberal National Party a 54–46 lead over Labor, representing a seven-point swing to the LNP since the October 2020 election. Primary votes were 42% LNP, 30% Labor, 13% Greens, 8% One Nation and 7% for all Others.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Steven Miles had a 49% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied rating (net -11), while LNP leader David Crisafulli was at net +14. Crisafulli led Miles as better premier by 43–37. Just 26% thought Labor deserved to be re-elected, while 58% thought it was time to give someone else a go. This is the first Queensland Newspoll since before the 2020 election.</p>
<p>After Miles replaced Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier in December, there were two relatively good uComms polls for Labor, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-steady-in-newspoll-but-down-in-resolve-its-tied-in-queensland-223853">one in mid-February</a> having a 50–50 tie. But this poll is a reversion to bad polling for a government headed for defeat in October. </p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015, and it was easily the worst state for Labor at the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">2022 federal election</a>, so a defeat for Labor is the expected outcome.</p>
<p>On Saturday, there will be Queensland state byelections in Labor-held Inala and Ipswich West, and Queensland local government elections, including for the high-profile <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guides">Brisbane City Council</a>. Labor won <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">Inala</a> by 78.2–21.8 and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">Ipswich West</a> by 64.3–35.7 against the LNP in 2020.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/15/queensland-newspoll-state-by-elections-and-brisbane-city-council/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Friday that a DemosAU poll of the Brisbane City Council, conducted March 8–14 from a sample of 1,034, had the incumbent LNP Brisbane mayor leading Labor by 58–42, and the LNP also likely to retain their majority on the council.</p>
<h2>Federal Freshwater poll steady at 51–49 to Labor</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-shows-signs-of-recovery-as-labor-stops-the-rot-20240310-p5fb6x">Freshwater poll</a> for The Australian Financial Review, conducted March 8–10 from a sample of 1,051, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the February Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-steady-in-newspoll-but-down-in-resolve-its-tied-in-queensland-223853">was steady</a> at -7, with 45% unfavourable and 37% favourable. Dutton’s net approval fell four points to -13. Albanese’s lead as preferred PM increased to 47–38 from 42–38 in February.</p>
<p>The Coalition’s lead over Labor on best to manage cost of living dropped to three points from six points in February, but they still led Labor by ten points on managing the economy. Cost of living was <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/what-voters-really-mean-when-they-say-the-cost-of-living-is-hurting-20240310-p5fb6w">rated an important issue</a> by 72%, up three since February, with housing second on 42%.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor regains slight lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted March 6–10 from a sample of 1,126, gave Labor a 48–47 lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–47 lead for the Coalition last fortnight. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down two), 8% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 8% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>Respondents were told that Australia spends $55.6 billion <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-march-2024">on defence</a>, making it the fourth highest expense in the budget. On this spending, 51% thought it about the right amount, 29% too much and 20% not enough.</p>
<p>On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 37% thought Israel should permanently withdraw from Gaza, 20% agree to a temporary ceasefire and 18% thought Israel was justified in continuing its actions.</p>
<p>On Australia’s relationship with China, 67% thought it a complex relationship to be managed, 20% that China is a threat to be confronted and 13% that China is a positive opportunity to be realised. There was no change in these responses since March 2023.</p>
<p>On Australia’s role in global affairs, 38% thought we should be an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region, 20% primarily an ally of the United States and 25% said we should do our best not to engage in world affairs.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and Cook byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9487-federal-voting-intention-march-12-2024">national Morgan poll</a>, conducted March 4–10 from a sample of 1,714, gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up 1.5), 32% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 4% One Nation (up 0.5), 9% independents (up 0.5) and 4% others (steady).</p>
<p>The byelection in former Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024">seat of Cook</a> will be held on April 13. At the 2022 election, Morrison defeated Labor by a 62.4–37.6 margin. Candidate nominations close next Thursday, with Labor not expected to contest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls aren’t favouring state Labor parties. Based on the latest figures, Labor would struggle to form government in Tasmania, while support for the party in Queensland has dipped.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230972024-02-14T04:51:36Z2024-02-14T04:51:36ZJacqui Lambie Network could win balance of power at Tasmanian election; Labor lead steady in federal polls<p>Tasmanian Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-14/tasmania-jeremy-rockliff-calls-early-election/103420790">today announced</a> the Tasmanian election would be held on March 23, more than a year early. The election was called early <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-13/jeremy-rockliff-to-ask-for-an-early-election/103462354">owing to disagreements</a> between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker. The Liberals had lost their parliamentary majority when these two MPs defected in May 2023.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the proportional Hare Clark system for its lower house elections. At this election there will be <a href="https://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/resources/about-parliament/parliament#:%7E:text=In%202022%20the%20Expansion%20of,each%20of%20the%20five%20electorates.">35 members elected</a>, up from 25 previously. Tasmania uses the same five electorates for state and federal elections, with seven members to be elected per electorate, up from five previously. The quota for election will be one-eighth of the vote or 12.5%, down from one-sixth or 16.7%.</p>
<p>Tasmania’s upper house has elections every May for two or three of its 15 seats, with members serving six-year terms. The upper house will not be contested at this election.</p>
<p>The two most recent polls were an early January <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">YouGov poll</a> and a late November <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/6567dd27d6227f53ebff4ac0/1701305655222/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+November+2023.pdf">EMRS poll</a>. The YouGov poll gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%. If this poll were repeated at an election, the JLN would hold the balance of power.</p>
<p>The EMRS poll was far better for the Liberals, suggesting they had recovered from a slump in May. The Liberals had 39%, Labor 29%, the Greens 12% and all Others 19%. This poll did not ask for the JLN. The Liberals would still fall short of a majority if this poll were repeated at the election.</p>
<p>Tasmania is the only Australian jurisdiction that is currently governed by the conservative parties. However, the Liberal National Party is likely to win the October Queensland election, so even if Labor takes power in Tasmania, unified Labor government probably won’t last long.</p>
<h2>Federal YouGov poll: 69% support tax changes but Albanese’s ratings drop</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48586-69-of-australian-voters-favour-the-changes-to-the-stage-3-tax-cut-proposal">national YouGov poll</a>, conducted February 2–7 from a sample of 1,502, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged from the <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48430-labor-support-rises-to-52-two-party-preferred-vote">mid-January YouGov poll</a>. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 32% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (up one) and 10% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -16, while Dutton’s net approval was up three points to -8. Albanese led Dutton by 45–38 as preferred PM, a narrowing from 45–35 in January.</p>
<p>On the changes to the stage three tax cuts, 69% supported the changes while 31% supported the original stage three proposal. Supporters of all parties favoured the changes, including 55% of Coalition voters.</p>
<h2>Labor gains in Essential poll</h2>
<p>In a national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted February 7–11 from a sample of 1,148, Labor led by 50–46 including undecided (48–46 two weeks ago). This is Labor’s largest lead in Essential since early October.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady). Preference flows favoured Labor more than last fortnight.</p>
<p>Respondents were asked to rate <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/13-february-2024">Albanese and Dutton</a> from 0 to 10. Scores of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 35–33 negative (37–32 in December), while Dutton was at 33–32 negative (37–28 in December).</p>
<p>By 56–16, voters supported the revised stage three tax cuts when told there would be more benefits for lower and middle-income earners, and less to higher-income earners. However, by 53–47, they thought it is never acceptable to break an election promise over it being acceptable if circumstances change.</p>
<p>By 59–15, voters supported employees’ “right to disconnect”. On Taylor Swift’s upcoming Eras Tour in Sydney and Melbourne, 76% said they weren’t interested in seeing her, 21% wished they were going to see her, 3% were seeing her and 3% didn’t know who she was.</p>
<h2>Labor down in a Redbridge poll</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/RedBridge-Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Feb-2024.pdf">national Redbridge</a> poll, conducted January 30 to February 7 from a sample of 2,040, gave Labor a 51.2–48.8 lead, a 1.6-point gain for the Coalition since the <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Dec-2023.pdf">last Redbridge poll</a> in December. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up three), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down three).</p>
<p>Despite the narrow Labor lead on voting intentions, Labor held a 32–28 lead on economic management, which is usually a relative strength for the Coalition.</p>
<p>On negative gearing, 39% said it should be left alone and 39% said it should be phased out or scrapped immediately. By 60–22, voters supported the changes to the stage three tax cuts, but by 51–33 voters agreed that if Labor breaks the promise to deliver the original cuts, I can’t trust them in the future.</p>
<h2>Morgan and Dunkley byelection polls</h2>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-newspoll-lead-unchanged-since-december-as-62-support-stage-three-changes-222257">previously covered</a> a national Morgan poll that gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead. Labor’s lead increased to 53–47 in last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9451-federal-voting-intention-february-5-2024">Morgan poll</a> that was conducted January 29 to February 4. </p>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9453-federal-voting-intention-february-12-2024">Morgan poll</a>, conducted February 5–11 from a sample of 1,699, Labor led by 52–48. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady since last week), 34.5% Labor (up 1.5), 12% Greens (steady), 4.5% One Nation (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>The federal byelection to replace the deceased Labor MP Peta Murphy will be held on March 2. A <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Polling-Dunkley-Byelection-and-Stage-3.pdf">uComms poll of Dunkley</a> for The Australia Institute, conducted February 5–6 from a sample of 626, gave Labor a 52–48 lead from primary votes of 40.1% Labor, 39.3% Liberal, 8.2% Greens, 1.6% Libertarian and 10.8% for all Others.</p>
<p>Preferences were respondent-allocated, and Labor would be higher if the previous election preferences were used. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024">Labor won Dunkley</a> by 56.3–46.7 at the 2022 election, so this poll suggests a 4% swing to the Liberals. Seat polls are unreliable. Eight candidates will contest the Dunkley byelection.</p>
<p>In other byelection news, the South Australian state byelection in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-08/dunstan-by-election-march-23-south-australia/103429880">Dunstan</a> to replace former Liberal premier Steven Marshall will be held March 23. Marshall won Dunstan at the 2022 election by 50.5–49.5 against Labor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/12/monday-miscellany-redbridge-poll-dunkley-and-teal-seat-polls-preselection-latest-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Monday that uComms polls for The Australia Institute in the teal independent held seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted February 5 from samples of 602 to 647. In Kooyong, teal MP Monique Ryan led the Liberals by 56–44, in Mackellar teal MP Sophie Scamps led by 54–46 and in Wentworth teal MP Allegra Spender led by 57–43.</p>
<h2>US Democrats gain federal House seat at byelection</h2>
<p>I covered the United States federal byelection for New York’s third congressional district for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/14/us-new-yorks-third-by-election-and-indonesian-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Democrats easily gained from the Republicans. I also covered the latest presidential primaries that show both Donald Trump and Joe Biden cruising to their parties’ nominations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Tasmanian Liberal government has called an early election, but some recent polling suggests a rise in the popularity of Jacqui Lambie’s party.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202862024-01-15T02:13:08Z2024-01-15T02:13:08ZFreshwater national poll holds steady at a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus<p>A national <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/shock-poll-we-dont-trust-albo-to-help-us-with-costs-of-living/news-story/e8b7e7b39bedcd2e4c8d14746d6c0a50">Freshwater poll</a> for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">Freshwater poll for The Financial Review</a> in mid-December.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/15/freshwater-strategy-50-50-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that primary votes were 39% Coalition (steady since December), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 15% for all Others (down one). This poll was conducted January 10–11 from a sample of 1,007.</p>
<p>Freshwater has had better results for the Coalition than other polls, so Labor would probably have led if there was a Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton by 47–38 as preferred PM (43–39 in December). On Labor’s target to achieve 82% renewables by 2030, 51% said it would mean higher energy costs while 16% thought their bills would be reduced. On the cost of living, 81% said Labor had not done enough and 68% said they would not do enough in the next six months.</p>
<h2>Morgan polls, Resolve likeability and Newspoll aggregate data</h2>
<p>In my last polls article I reported that Labor led by 51–49 in the Morgan poll conducted December 4–10. In the Morgan poll <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9418-federal-voting-intention-december-17-2023">conducted December 11–17</a> there was a 50–50 tie. In <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9419-federal-voting-intention-january-8-2024">the poll conducted</a> January 2–7 from a sample of 1,716, the Coalition led by 51–49. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one since mid-December), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 14% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Nine newspapers released <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wong-tops-list-of-popular-politicians-and-a-former-hero-now-comes-last-20231227-p5ett8.html">likeability ratings for various politicians</a> from the early December federal Resolve poll on December 28. The most popular politicians were Foreign Minister Penny Wong (net +14 likeability), Tasmanian independent senator Jacqui Lambie (net +10), Nationals senator Jacinta Price (net +6), ACT independent senator David Pocock (net +5) and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek (net +2).</p>
<p>The most unpopular politicians were former PM Scott Morrison (net -35), ex-Greens senator Lidia Thorpe (net -29), former deputy PM Barnaby Joyce (net -27) and Pauline Hanson (net -25).</p>
<p>Albanese had a net -3 likeability, much better than his <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">net approval</a> of -11 in the same poll, while Dutton’s net likeability was -12 (-8 net approval). Greens leader Adam Bandt was at -10 net likeability while Treasurer Jim Chalmers was at net zero.</p>
<p>Newspoll aggregate data for its three federal polls conducted from early November to mid-December was released on December 27. The overall sample was 3,655. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">previous aggregate data</a>, from Newspolls conducted before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. In this release, Labor’s overall lead was down to 52–48.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/27/newspoll-aggregates-october-to-december-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> said Labor’s lead or deficit in the various states was close to the margins at the 2022 federal election. Labor led by 51–49 in New South Wales, 55–45 in Victoria, 54–46 in Western Australia and 55–45 in South Australia. Queensland was the only state with a Coalition lead, by 54–46.</p>
<h2>Trump set for big win in Iowa Republican caucus</h2>
<p>The Iowa Republican caucus is the first <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/events.phtml?s=c&f=m">presidential nominating contest</a> of 2024, and it will occur Tuesday AEDT. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/">FiveThirtyEight</a> aggregate of Iowa polls, Donald Trump has 51.3%, Nikki Haley 17.3% and Ron DeSantis 16.1%. The next contest is the New Hampshire primary on January 23, where Trump is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">being challenged</a> by Haley.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-elections-2024-a-biden-vs-trump-rematch-is-very-likely-with-trump-leading-biden-219093">US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden</a>
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<p>I covered the Taiwan presidential election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/13/taiwan-presidential-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday, in which the centre-left and pro-independence candidate won with 40.1% of the vote (first past the post was used). Three US and UK byelections that are to be held from February 13–15 were also covered.</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll: 51–49 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/ucomms-poll-steven-miless-ascension-makes-little-difference-to-labor-fortunes/news-story/13ff4bb2973e0ac46e941cf182f754f6">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted December 21–22 from a sample of 1,911, gave the Liberal National Party a 51–49 lead, from primary votes of 36.2% LNP and 34.4% Labor, with no other parties’ votes released. LNP leader David Crisafulli led new Labor premier Steven Miles by 52.2–47.8 as preferred premier.</p>
<p>An October <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">YouGov Queensland poll</a> gave the LNP a 52–48 lead, and a September to December <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">Resolve poll</a> implied a 50–50 tie, but Resolve has been much better for Labor federally than other polls.</p>
<h2>Victorian Redbridge poll: Labor has large lead</h2>
<p>A Victorian state <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a>, conducted December 2–12 from a sample of 2,026, gave Labor a 55.9–44.1 lead, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since a <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Vic-votes-survey-Sept-2023.pdf">September Redbridge poll</a>. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 36% Coalition (up two), 13% Greens (steady) and 14% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Voters were asked their ratings of political leaders on a five-point scale, with 3 being neither approve nor disapprove. Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at net -6, Liberal leader John Pesutto at net -13, Nationals leader Peter Walsh at net -15 and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at net -21.</p>
<p>On the main impact of protests over the Israel-Gaza war, 30% thought they had threatened the safety of Jewish and Palestinian Australians, 21% raised awareness of the conflict and 19% pressured the Australian government to call for an end.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian YouGov poll: Lambie Network has 20%</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">Tasmanian state YouGov poll</a>, conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850, gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%. Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two party preferred is not applicable.</p>
<p>If this were the election result, the JLN would hold the balance of power. By 53–26, voters thought it was time to give someone else a go over the Liberals deserving to be re-elected. A November <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">EMRS Tasmanian poll</a> had 39% Liberals, 29% Labor, 12% Greens and 19% for all Others with no JLN option.</p>
<h2>Lawler replaces Fyles as NT chief minister</h2>
<p>Eva Lawler <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-20/eva-lawler-next-northern-territory-chief-minister/103252794">replaced Natasha Fyles</a> as Labor’s Northern Territory chief minister on December 21. Fyles had resigned two days prior owing to conflict of interest allegations, and Lawler was unanimously elected by Labor MPs. Fyles will continue as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natasha_Fyles">Member for Nightcliff</a>, so there won’t be a byelection.</p>
<p>This is the second change in NT chief minister this term after Fyles replaced Michael Gunner in May 2022. The next NT election is in August, and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">November Redbridge poll</a> had Labor well behind the opposition Country Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The summer break hasn’t changed the Freshwater polling figures for the two major parties federally. Overseas, the former US President is in a strong position ahead of the Iowa caucus.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190122023-12-05T23:08:24Z2023-12-05T23:08:24ZLabor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November article on Resolve</a>, I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">week’s Newspoll</a> had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-peter-dutton-is-winning-the-border-wars-against-anthony-albanese-20231204-p5eops.html">Anthony Albanese’s performance</a>, 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).</p>
<p>Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).</p>
<p>By 43–18, voters supported the government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-voters-back-plan-to-rein-in-ndis-costs-20231204-p5eovf.html">limiting spending growth on the NDIS</a> to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9416-federal-voting-intention-december-3-2023">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).</p>
<p>Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-peta-murphy-dies-aged-50-20231204-p5eov4.html">died from breast cancer</a> on Monday. In <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm">2022</a>, Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.</p>
<h2>It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/support-for-labor-steadies-despite-dip-in-palaszczuk-s-popularity-20231205-p5ep30.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/05/resolve-strategic-lnp-37-labor-33-greens-12-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">Queensland YouGov poll</a>, in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).</p>
<p>It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/shannon-fentiman-denies-she-has-been-approached-to-replace-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/3abf1b67a095ab4b383689b1f1677005">recent speculation</a> that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.</p>
<h2>Tasmania, WA and the NT</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/6567dd27d6227f53ebff4ac0/1701305655222/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+November+2023.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.</p>
<p>In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).</p>
<p>The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/01/western-australian-state-redistribution-finalised/">Poll Bludger</a> said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.</p>
<p>Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">2021 WA election</a>, in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Northern-Territory-Social-Services-11.pdf">Redbridge Northern Territory poll</a>, conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.</p>
<p>If these results were replicated at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Northern_Territory_general_election">next NT election</a> in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the latest poll gives the Labor government a comfortable lead, this is not supported by other polls.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2058462023-06-08T02:57:52Z2023-06-08T02:57:52ZHow the Tasmanian AFL team turned into a political football<p>Some say we should keep sport out of politics. But that seems to be almost impossible in the case of Tasmania. </p>
<p>The announcement that Tasmania will get its own AFL team has become the centrepiece of one of the fiercest political battles the state has seen – and it’s about a stadium.</p>
<p>As part of the deal to launch the 19th AFL team, the league required Tasmania to build a fresh stadium, which was agreed to be a new precinct on the Hobart waterfront.</p>
<p>Premier Jeremy Rockliff has pledged $375 million from the state government to build the precinct, about half the $715 million price tag. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also pledged $240 million from the federal government, plus $65 million for an upgrade to Launceston’s York Park. And the AFL has promised $15 million towards the stadium.</p>
<p>But Rockliff has come under fire from all directions for the cost of the new precinct. It has led to him losing his majority in the lower house after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/12/resignations-over-hobart-stadium-plunge-tasmanian-government-into-minority">two Liberals resigned over the stadium</a>, pushing the nation’s only Liberal state government into minority.</p>
<p>Tasmanian Labor has argued the government shouldn’t be committing to the stadium <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-29/pm-announces-funding-for-tas-afl-stadium-at-macquarie-point/102209420">amid a cost-of-living crisis</a>, although the party still supports a Tasmanian AFL team.</p>
<p>The Tasmanian Greens also <a href="https://tasmps.greens.org.au/media-release/greens-withdraw-tripartisan-afl-bid">withdrew their support</a> for the team based on the costs of the stadium, while the disaffected Liberals say they <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-12/tasmania-liberal-government-in-minority-mps-defect-over-stadium/102333446">want more transparency</a>.</p>
<p>There have also been <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/thousands-rally-to-denounce-715m-tasmania-afl-stadium-20230513-p5d857.html">public protests</a> on the grounds that Tasmania shouldn’t be building a new stadium precinct when it has a health and housing crisis, with some people being forced to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-02/hobart-rivulet-homeless-camp/102040248">live in makeshift campsites in Hobart</a>.</p>
<p>While it was hoped that having an AFL team at last would bring Tasmanians together, some believe it has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-04/tasmania-afl-team-dream-is-now-a-political-nightmare/102396576">split them politically</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/devils-in-the-detail-an-economist-argues-the-case-for-a-tasmanian-afl-team-and-new-stadium-204678">Devils in the detail: an economist argues the case for a Tasmanian AFL team – and new stadium</a>
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<h2>Stadium economics</h2>
<p>Despite the understandable concerns about health and housing, some misconceptions have formed about the economics of the Tasmanian team.</p>
<p>Tasmanian government research suggests there will be knock-on benefits from the new precinct in terms of extra economic activity, estimated at <a href="https://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/Transport_and_Infrastructure/major_stadiums/Tasmanias_new_Arts,_Entertainment_and_Sports_Precinct,_Macquarie_Point,_Hobart">$2.2 billion over 25 years</a>, including 6,720 new jobs and a potential boost to tourism of around 123,500 international and interstate visitors per year, plus visitors from elsewhere in Tasmania coming to watch the games in Hobart.</p>
<p>Queensland is getting <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/queensland-confident-canberra-will-share-any-olympic-budget-blowout-20230324-p5cuyb">$3.4 billion from the federal government</a> for stadium upgrades for the Gabba and other facilities for the Brisbane Olympics 2032. So the Commonwealth’s $240 million for Tasmania is relatively cheap. This is especially the case when you consider this sets up the Tasmanian team for the rest of the century, while the Olympics and Paralympics are held across just four weeks.</p>
<p>What’s more, the precinct in Tasmania is cheaper than recent stadiums built in the United States for NFL teams and in Europe for soccer, where price tags routinely <a href="https://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/stadiums/us-bank-stadium/">top A$1.5 billion</a> and are often partially financed by local and state governments. </p>
<p>In some ways, building a new stadium precinct is like building a new bridge. Because of the huge initial outlay, it can only be done by government, as the returns are public and cannot be totally captured commercially. No private-sector funder could make a return on it, and nor could a sporting organisation. Like the AFL itself, it’s a public good.</p>
<p>Having a team in Tasmania is a significant social investment. In assessing the value of the new precinct, we should look at its creative and community potential in addition to the excitement of the Tasmanian team in the AFL. </p>
<p>Yet the political stakes are undeniably high. If the stadium precinct is blocked by the parliament, Tasmania will lose its AFL team – likely forever. And the stadium’s opponents, whether it be the Greens, the independents or Tasmanian Labor, will likely get the blame.</p>
<p>The death of the Tasmanian team would then be worn like a crown of thorns for at least a generation or two.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Harcourt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While it was hoped that having an AFL team at last would bring Tasmanians together, some believe it has split them politically.Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2068562023-06-01T04:13:48Z2023-06-01T04:13:48ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Liberal MP Bridget Archer urges other moderates to speak up as she presses for party change<p>The Coalition’s decision to oppose the Voice to Parliament has put its moderate members in a jam. Some moderates are active yes advocates, while others are trying to keep low profiles.</p>
<p>Bridget Archer, the outspoken Liberal MP for Bass, is a vocal yes campaigner. More generally, she is also taking a lead in urging the Liberal party to undertake root-and-branch reform. </p>
<p>Archer is pushing for extensive change in a party that is electorally on the ropes, out of office everywhere except her home state of Tasmania. </p>
<p>Since entering parliament in 2019, Archer has crossed the floor on 27 occasion to vote against her party. She admits there are those colleagues who avoid her, but says her decisions are always based on what is in the best interest of her community, and argues the strength of the Liberal Party historically has been for members to be able to sometimes disagree and to do so respectfully. </p>
<p>Her independent stance on a range of issues has brought varied feedback from her local community. “It’s mixed, but generally positive. If I get negative feedback, it is sometimes from Liberal Party members or conservative voters that say ‘I think that you should toe the line’ – there’s this idea that if you have a divergent view, that you’re not a team player.”</p>
<p>But Archer believes “it is possible to be part of a team and to have differences of opinion (sometimes), and that it’s my job to represent to the best of my ability everybody in the electorate, even the people who don’t or didn’t vote for you, I guess.”</p>
<p>In a recent Good Weekend profile Archer called for a “revolution” in the Liberal Party, claiming it is currently “unelectable”. She tells the podcast: “I think this was again borne out in the 2022 election with the rise of community independents […] where people, particularly in some of those metropolitan seats, are not feeling that the party is representing their views anymore […] In regional areas that is not necessarily the case. And we’ve seen with the Coalition, of course, the Nationals holding the seats that they had.</p>
<p>"The great challenge for us is to get back to what I think was the strength of the Liberal Party at one stage, which is the ability to speak across the country, to talk to middle Australia.</p>
<p>"And I think that we’ve lost our way in that.”</p>
<p>Archer also argues Liberal Party values need to shift with the times, particularly its ideology on “the family and home ownership”.</p>
<p>“We have historically talked a lot about home ownership, but we don’t focus so much on rental affordability. […] It’s front of mind for many people in those metropolitan areas and for younger people as well, who have also deserted us in droves.”</p>
<p>The moderates in the party were decimated at the 2022 election. It has left the moderate faction in tatters, and Archer often finds herself isolated when she speaks out against the party line. </p>
<p>“I think it’s a bit frustrating for me sometimes that I feel that I know that there are other people who share my views on some things, but they don’t speak up, which I think sometimes does leave me sort of hanging there as this rogue person when I know that that’s not necessarily the case.”</p>
<p>“I also think it really goes to the heart of some of the reasons why those colleagues did lose their seats at the last election and why we have seen a rise of the teals. In those seats, in many cases people were wanting to vote for Liberals, and they were looking around [to] have a reason to vote for Liberals and they were coming up empty handed.”</p>
<p>Asked if she thought the party was “walking off a cliff,” she doesn’t hesitate. </p>
<p>“Oh, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Archer is pushing for extensive reform in a party that is electorally on the ropes and out of office everywhere except her home state of Tasmania.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1805962022-04-04T09:58:05Z2022-04-04T09:58:05Z‘Nothing left in the tank’: resigning Tasmanian premier Peter Gutwein deserves credit on COVID and economics<p>Liberal premier Peter Gutwein’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-04/peter-gutwein-legacy-resignation/100965278">resignation</a>, less than a year into his second term, is a seismic shift in Tasmanian politics.</p>
<p>In typical fashion, Gutwein surprised everyone, <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/statement_from_the_premier4">announcing</a> his resignation today – in his own time and on his own terms, seemingly out of nowhere. </p>
<p>He left saying he had held the “best job in the world”, but the responsibility had taken its toll and he had “nothing left in the tank”. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-victory-in-tasmanian-election-is-more-status-quo-than-ringing-endorsement-159806">Liberals' victory in Tasmanian election is more status quo than ringing endorsement</a>
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<h2>From ‘hard man’ to soaring popularity</h2>
<p>Gutwein, <a href="https://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/HA/Inaugural/ISGutweinPeter.html">first elected</a> to the Tasmanian House of Assembly seat of Bass in 2002, quickly gained a reputation as a Liberal “hard man”.</p>
<p>As treasurer, he was part of the triumvirate with former Premier Will Hodgman, and current Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff, who broke a 16-year drought to propel the Liberals into government in 2014.</p>
<p>Gutwein became premier in January 2020 after Hodgman’s shock resignation. His popularity subsequently <a href="https://7news.com.au/politics/tas-liberals-drop-in-post-reopening-poll-c-5990274">soared</a> to 70% during 2020 due to his tough “no apologies” COVID response – famously leading to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia-tasmania-idUSKBN21714C">headline</a> that read: “We have a moat and we’re not afraid to use it”.</p>
<p>Then there was his refusal to bend to demands by the tourism industry and some of his federal Liberal colleagues to reopen the borders. Around the time of his resignation, his <a href="https://7news.com.au/politics/tas-liberals-drop-in-post-reopening-poll-c-5990274">popularity</a> as premier still sat at 52%.</p>
<p>Gutwein’s <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/6784650/tick-of-approval-for-peter-gutweins-footy-call-from-tim-lane/">hardline approach</a> with the AFL – insisting on progress towards a Tasmanian-based team before agreeing to continue subsidising Hawthorn and North Melbourne to play games in Tasmania – also resonated with the Tasmanian public. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-tasmanians-head-to-the-polls-liberal-premier-peter-gutwein-hopes-to-cash-in-on-covid-management-159526">As Tasmanians head to the polls, Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein hopes to cash in on COVID management</a>
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<h2>Hitting the wall</h2>
<p>In 2020, Gutwein scoffed at suggestions he would cash in on his popularity and call an early election. But in March 2021 he did just that, announcing a May 1 election date – a year earlier than it was due. </p>
<p>As a result, the Liberals were returned for a record third term – having never previously won three elections back-to-back in Tasmania.</p>
<p>However, after leading the state’s response to COVID, fighting the election and handing down the state budget, Gutwein was taken to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-30/tas-premier-peter-gutwein-admitted-to-hospital/100418616">hospital</a> in late August. </p>
<p>That followed what he described as “hitting the wall”, after working for 56 consecutive days – so perhaps today’s announcement should not have come as too much a surprise.</p>
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<h2>Lasting legacy</h2>
<p>While Gutwein’s leadership during COVID most likely will be his lasting legacy, he also deserves credit as treasurer for economic management.</p>
<p>Tasmania’s economy continues to perform strongly relative to other states. In October last year, for example, CommSec rated the improvements in Tasmania’s economic performance as the best in the nation for the <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2021/10/Tasmanian-economy-still-number-one.html">seventh quarter in a row</a>.</p>
<p>The National Australia Bank monthly business survey and the Deloitte access economics outlook report for September 2021 also forecast Tasmania’s economy to grow the equal-fastest in the nation during the current financial year.</p>
<p>Gutwein, a social policy moderate, has led the way in pushing for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-23/tasmanian-aboriginal-truth-telling-treaty-discussions/100235634">treaty</a> with the Aboriginal community in Tasmania. </p>
<p>And in March, Gutwein <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-11/tas-gutwein-divulges-own-sexual-abuse-encounter/100903018">revealed</a> he was a victim of sexual assault as a 16-year-old, stating his support for victims in the Commission of Inquiry into child sexual abuse.</p>
<p>The question now is who will replace Gutwein as premier. His much respected deputy and health minister, Jeremy Rockliff, has shown no ambition to take the top job. </p>
<p>That leaves current minister for resources Guy Barnett and minister for state development, infrastructure and transport Michael Ferguson – both conservatives – as the frontrunners.</p>
<p>Gutwein’s resignation may also open the door for Labor under second-time-around leader Rebecca White, who recently enjoyed a minor resurgence in the polls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Lester was a political reporter and columnist in Tasmania for about 20 years and served as an adviser to Labor premier Jim Bacon between 1998 and 2002. In December 2021, he was awarded a PhD for research on minority government in Australia.</span></em></p>Gutwein left saying he had held the ‘best job in the world’ but the responsibility had taken its toll and he had ‘nothing left in the tank’.Michael Lester, Casual Academic, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922982018-03-04T02:54:21Z2018-03-04T02:54:21ZHodgman rides Tasmanians’ disdain for minority government to a second term in office<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208781/original/file-20180303-65541-vtrnwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Tasmanian election result was an emphatic win for Will Hodgman, but he lost a fair bit of skin along the way.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In an era of single-term governments and growing electoral volatility in Australia, the return of Will Hodgman’s Liberal government at Saturday’s Tasmanian election with <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018/results/">more than 50% of the primary vote</a> is significant – and will have national implications.</p>
<p>The Turnbull government will take comfort from a result that demonstrates voters – even in left-leaning Tasmania – are prepared to re-elect a competent Liberal government that has delivered strong economic and employment growth.</p>
<p>It was a strong result for the Liberals. However, the outcome was shaped as much by Tasmania’s distinctive political practices and local issues as it was by national trends.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-pokies-from-tasmanias-clubs-and-pubs-would-help-gamblers-without-hurting-the-economy-90019">Pokies</a>, housing, hospitals, and – at the 11th hour – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/02/tasmanian-liberal-government-promises-to-soften-gun-laws">watering down gun laws</a> might have been the specific issues that dominated the campaign, but the decisive factor was Tasmanians’ enduring apprehension about minority government.</p>
<p>The legacies of Labor-Green minority government of the early 1990s and between 2010 and 2014 cast a long shadow during the 2018 campaign. Both periods are associated with economic decline, rising unemployment, and budget cuts. </p>
<p>While there is little evidence to suggest minority government has been a cause of poor economic outcomes in Tasmania – it is more that these governments were unlucky and found themselves in charge after national downturns – the fact remains that Tasmanians have a strong preference for majority government.</p>
<p>Given this history, undecided Tasmanian voters tend to back the major party that’s most likely to form majority government. This was evident in both 2006 and 2014, and was always going to be a feature of the 2018 campaign given memories of the 2012-13 recession in Tasmania are still fresh in voters’ minds. And the Liberal government, which was elected in 2014, has delivered strong economic growth. </p>
<p>It is this bandwagon effect that helps explain why support for the government increased by ten points over the course of the campaign, rather than going to minor parties – as has been the case elsewhere.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-romp-to-emphatic-victory-in-tasmanian-election-92180">Liberals romp to emphatic victory in Tasmanian election</a>
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<h2>What now for the Liberals?</h2>
<p>The final result was an emphatic win for Hodgman. But it is also fair to say he lost a bit of skin along the way, due to the Liberals’ big-budget, brutally effective advertising campaign seeming to have been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/labor-will-win-against-cashed-up-liberals-tas-party-pres-says/9481524">funded by gaming interests</a>.</p>
<p>The reality is that Tasmania remains deeply divided on pokies and the means the gaming industry uses to protect its interests.</p>
<p>Tasmanians voted for political and economic stability on Saturday, but an overwhelming majority <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/tasmania-2018-commissioned-pokies.html">support Labor’s policy</a> of phasing pokies out of pubs and clubs over a five-year period.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-pokies-from-tasmanias-clubs-and-pubs-would-help-gamblers-without-hurting-the-economy-90019">Removing pokies from Tasmania's clubs and pubs would help gamblers without hurting the economy</a>
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<p>The pokies debate is far from over. Hodgman must commit to open and transparent government, and subject his gaming policies to full parliamentary scrutiny in an attempt to regain the electorate’s trust. Opposition parties also have a role to play, and must be willing to compromise to find some middle ground.</p>
<h2>The election’s losers</h2>
<p>The result wasn’t a disaster for Labor. </p>
<p>Rebecca White, after securing the Labor leadership only a year ago, performed strongly during the campaign and has consolidated her credentials as a future premier. That she will be leading a stronger opposition bolstered by handful of up-and-coming new MPs also bodes well for Labor’s future.</p>
<p>The real losers in the election were the Greens and Jacqui Lambie. </p>
<p>In contrast to their success in inner-Melbourne and Sydney, the Greens have been struggling in Tasmania in recent years. The explanation for their decline in their former heartland can be attributed to the legacies of the last government, the absence of a high-profile local environmental issue, and that Labor, under White, has championed many of their core progressive causes.</p>
<p>Lambie and her party could have been the wildcard of this election, but she has had a tough summer and will have to fight hard to salvage her political career. Had Lambie herself run as a candidate on Saturday, it’s likely she would have been elected – and could have held the balance of power in the lower house. </p>
<p>Strangely, given that personalities and name recognition are so important in Tasmanian elections, she ran a ticket of grassroots candidates under her Jacqui Lambie Network banner that, as expected, failed to secure any serious support.</p>
<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>As the dust settles, we can draw a few conclusions from the Tasmanian election result.</p>
<p>Above all else, Tasmanians are a pragmatic bunch and are prepared to reward a government that delivers political stability and good economic outcomes.</p>
<p>The campaign also highlighted the power of sectional interests – be they mining, gaming or other actors – in Australian politics. The collective health of our democracy depends on curbing the influence of these groups at both the state and federal level.</p>
<p>Given the distinctive dynamics of Tasmanian politics, not too much can be read into the swing away from minor and protest parties and back to the majors. Perhaps the real test of the national political mood will come in South Australia on Saturday week.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pokies, housing, hospitals and gun laws might have been the specific issues that dominated the campaign, but the decisive factor was Tasmanians’ enduring apprehension about minority government.Richard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Institute for the Study of Social Change, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921802018-03-03T22:40:52Z2018-03-03T22:40:52ZLiberals romp to emphatic victory in Tasmanian election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208774/original/file-20180303-65511-1m13lmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Hodgman government has been returned for a second term.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 84% of votes counted at Saturday’s Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018/results/">13 of the 25 seats</a> (a majority) for the Liberals, eight for Labor, and one Green, with three in doubt. </p>
<p>Labor is very likely to win the final seat in Braddon, while the final seat in Bass is a Labor/Greens contest, and the final seat in Franklin is a Liberal/Greens contest.</p>
<p>Vote shares were 50.5% Liberals (down just 0.8% since the 2014 landslide), 32.8% Labor (up 5.4%), 10.0% Greens (down 3.8%), and 3.2% Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) – which only contested three of the five electorates.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the Hare Clark system for its lower house elections, with five five-member electorates. A quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. For a vote to be formal, at least five candidates must be numbered. Unlike the federal Senate, there is no above-the-line party ticket box.</p>
<p>I will run through each electorate’s results from easiest to most complicated.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/deni/">Denison</a>, Labor won 2.55 quotas, the Liberals 2.26, and the Greens 1.03. This is a clear two Labor, two Liberals, one Green result, unchanged from 2014.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/lyon/">Lyons</a>, the Liberals won 3.05 quotas, Labor 1.99, the Greens 0.38, and the JLN 0.32. This is a clear three Liberals, two Labor result, unchanged from 2014.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/brad/">Braddon</a>, the Liberals won 3.38 quotas, Labor 1.64, the JLN 0.36, ungrouped candidates 0.26, and the Greens 0.20. Labor is well ahead of everyone else in the race for the last seat, and will benefit from Greens preferences. This will be a Labor gain from the Liberals.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/bass/">Bass</a>, the Liberals won 3.53 quotas, Labor 1.59, the Greens 0.54, and the JLN 0.28. Labor is more exposed to within-ticket leakage than the Greens, but is likely to be helped by JLN preferences that do not exhaust.</p>
<p>There will be a crunch point where one candidate from the Liberals, Greens and Labor is left. If the Liberals are third at that point, their preferences probably exhaust. If either Labor or the Greens are third, their preferences should benefit the other left-wing candidate.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/fran/">Franklin</a>, the Liberals won 2.91 quotas, Labor 2.07, the Greens 0.86, and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 0.16. Premier Will Hodgman won 2.30 quotas, and some of his surplus will leak out of the Liberal ticket. However, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers ran just one candidate, so four further preferences were required for formal votes. These preferences are likely to assist the Liberals against the Greens.</p>
<p>Labor has gained a seat in Franklin at the expense of the loser of the Liberals/Greens contest.</p>
<p>I believe preferences will start to be distributed following the last day for receipt of postal votes, on March 13.</p>
<h2>Why this result occurred</h2>
<p>In December, an <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-a-majority-in-queensland-as-polling-in-victoria-shows-a-tie-88692">EMRS poll</a> had the Liberals and Labor tied at 34%, the Greens on 17%, and the JLN on 8%. In the three months since that poll was taken, the Liberals went from a losing position to an emphatic victory – a bitterly disappointing outcome for Labor and the Greens.</p>
<p>EMRS does not usually provide favourable ratings for the leaders, but it did in its December poll. It found Labor leader Rebecca White at a net +40, and Hodgman at a net +13 rating.</p>
<p>There have been two recent state elections with first-term Coalition governments that won landslides at the preceding election, ending at least 14 years of continuous Labor government. </p>
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<li><p>At the Queensland 2015 election, the Liberal National Party under Campbell Newman was defeated; Newman was very unpopular.</p></li>
<li><p>At the New South Wales 2015 election, the Coalition was comfortably re-elected; Premier Mike Baird was popular at the time. </p></li>
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<p>Tasmania has now followed the NSW example. Labor was crushed in 2014 after 16 consecutive years in power, and the Liberals easily won Saturday’s election.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, White’s initial popularity may have inflated Labor’s position in the polls. However, people generally do not vote a certain way because they like the opposition leader; the premier’s performance is far more important. But popular opposition leaders can inflate their party’s vote until close to an election.</p>
<p>At the 2017 Western Australian election, which Labor won in a landslide, Opposition Leader Mark McGowan was popular, but Premier Colin Barnett was very unpopular. The perception of Barnett was probably far more important than that of McGowan. </p>
<p>The Tasmanian Liberals also benefited from anti-Greens sentiment. In the final week, ReachTEL gave the Liberals a 46-31 lead over Labor, and EMRS gave them a 46-34 lead. These polls may have pushed undecided voters into voting Liberal to ensure a majority government, and so they understated the Liberal vote.</p>
<p>It appears that, four years after one term of Labor/Greens minority government, Tasmanians do not want to return to the Greens holding the balance of power. In 2006, Labor easily won an election that was expected to be close because of the Greens factor.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-win-tasmanian-election-while-federal-labors-poll-lead-widens-92404">Liberals likely to win Tasmanian election, while federal Labor's poll lead widens</a>
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<p>Tasmanian analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/tasmania-2018-commissioned-pokies.html">Kevin Bonham</a> has written about why Labor’s anti-pokies policy was not a major vote winner.</p>
<p>On Friday, the last day of campaigning, the Liberals <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/the-liberals-have-170-secret-policies.html">were embarrassed</a> when it was revealed they had a policy to relax gun laws that had been hidden from the public. There have been other recent cases where issues that would be expected to have a last-minute impact on an election have fizzled. If the Liberals defeat the Greens on Shooters, Fishers and Farmers preferences in Franklin, the net impact will be positive for the Liberals.</p>
<p>At the <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseTppByState-20499.htm">2016 federal election</a>, Tasmania was easily Labor’s best state. On Saturday, Labor had its worst result in a state election since the 2014 Tasmanian election – federal and state results do not necessarily agree. A Liberal state government will probably help federal Labor retain its four Tasmanian federal seats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Liberals went from a losing position in Tasmanian polls months ago to a comfortable victory on election day.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/924042018-02-26T00:19:08Z2018-02-26T00:19:08ZLiberals likely to win Tasmanian election, while federal Labor’s poll lead widens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207770/original/file-20180225-108122-15yx1mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">On the stated figures, the Will Hodgman-led Tasmanian Liberals are most likely to win 13 or 14 seats out of 25.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rob Blakers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Tasmanian election will be held on Saturday. A <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/02/24/reachtel-liberal-46-labor-31-greens-12-tasmania/">ReachTEL poll</a>, conducted for The Mercury on February 22 from a large sample of more than 3,100, gave the Liberals 46.4% of the vote, Labor 31.1%, the Greens 12.1%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 5.2%, others 2.0%, and 3.3% were undecided. </p>
<p>When undecideds are excluded, the Liberals have 48.0%, Labor 32.2%, the Greens 12.5%, and JLN 5.4%.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the Hare-Clark system, with five five-member electorates. A quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. Sample sizes for each electorate in ReachTEL were 620-650. The Liberals had well over 50% in Bass and Braddon, and 49.6% in Lyons, implying they would win three of the five seats in each.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanian-election-likely-to-be-close-while-labor-continues-to-lead-federally-90827">Tasmanian election likely to be close, while Labor continues to lead federally</a>
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<p>In Franklin, the Liberals had 42.6%, easily enough for two seats. In Denison, the Liberals had 33.8%, just enough for two seats.</p>
<p>On the stated figures, the most likely overall seat outcome is 13 or 14 Liberals out of 25, eight-to-ten Labor, and two or three Greens. So, the Liberals should win a majority.</p>
<p>Like other Tasmanian polls, ReachTEL has in the past skewed to the Greens and against Labor. At the last two federal elections, ReachTEL skewed to the Liberals in Tasmania, though it skewed against the Liberals at the 2014 state election.</p>
<p>Adjusting for ReachTEL’s skew, Tasmanian analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/tasmania-2018-reachtel-confirms.html">Kevin Bonham</a> thinks the most likely outcome is 13 Liberals, ten Labor, and two Greens. The next two most likely outcomes are 13 Liberals, 11 Labor, one Green; and 12 Liberals, 11 Labor, two Greens.</p>
<p>I do not think opposition to Labor’s anti-pokies policy caused the swing to the Liberals during the campaign. The most important factor was probably that many Tasmanians detest the Greens, and will vote for the major party most likely to win a majority. In 2006, Labor easily won an election that had appeared likely to result in a hung parliament.</p>
<p>The Greens’ vote of 12.5% in this poll is below the 13.7% they won at the 2014 election, and it could be lower given ReachTEL’s pro-Greens skew. It is likely the Greens are doing badly because Labor, under Rebecca White’s leadership, has become more left-wing, so the Greens are having trouble differentiating themselves from Labor.</p>
<p>Incumbent Will Hodgman led White by 51.8-48.2 on ReachTEL’s forced choice better premier question. Labor’s pokies policy was supported against the Liberals’ policy by a 57-43 margin.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL 54-46 to federal Labor</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5739971623001">Sky News ReachTEL</a>, conducted February 22 – the day before Barnaby Joyce resigned – had federal Labor leading by 54-46, a two-point gain for Labor since late January. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 33% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (up one), and 7% One Nation (down one). The remaining 12% probably included some undecided voters.</p>
<p>ReachTEL is using respondent-allocated preferences, which have been better for the Coalition than previous election preferences, as One Nation preferences are flowing to the Coalition at a greater rate than the 50-50 flow at the 2016 election. By last election preferences, Bonham <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/967582476175462402">calculates this poll</a> was about 55.5-44.5 to Labor. This makes it one of the worst polls for the Coalition this term.</p>
<p>Despite the blowout in the Labor margin, Malcolm Turnbull continued to lead Bill Shorten by 53-47 in ReachTEL’s forced choice better prime minister question (54-46 in January). Although the Joyce affair appears to have damaged the Coalition, Turnbull is not being blamed.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/02/18/newspoll-53-47-labor-11/">Last week’s Newspoll</a>, conducted February 15-18 from a sample of 1,630, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 36% Coalition (down two), 10% Greens (steady), and 8% One Nation (up three). This was Turnbull’s 27th successive Newspoll loss, three short of Tony Abbott.</p>
<p>The overall Labor/Green vote in this Newspoll was 47%; the left vote has been stuck at 47% in Newspoll since August. Despite the Joyce affair, the overall Coalition/One Nation vote was up one point to 44%.</p>
<p>Turnbull’s ratings were 34% satisfied, 54% dissatisfied (37-50 previously). Shorten’s ratings were the same as Turnbull’s, and Turnbull led Shorten 40-33 as better prime minister (45-31 previously).</p>
<p>A total of 65% thought Joyce should resign as deputy prime minister, while only 23% thought he should stay. By 64-25, voters supported a ban on politicians having sexual relations with their staff. By 57-32, <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b8dffb98838ec4450032246682258492?width=650">voters supported</a> Shorten’s policy to give Indigenous people a voice to federal parliament.</p>
<h2>As long as Republicans hold Congress, no chance of real US gun control</h2>
<p>After the recent Florida high school gun massacre, there has been a renewed push for US gun control. However, as I wrote following the Las Vegas massacre in October, meaningful gun control will not happen under Donald Trump and the current Republican-controlled Congress. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-chance-of-us-gun-control-despite-las-vegas-massacre-nz-left-gains-two-seats-after-special-votes-85178">No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes</a>
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<p>The Florida state legislature, which <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_Legislature">Republicans control 76-40</a>, defeated a motion to debate a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/21/health/florida-legislature-porn-dangerous-but-not-weapons/index.html">ban on assault weapons</a> by 71-36, even as students from the affected school looked on. Instead, it passed a motion declaring pornography a public health risk.</p>
<p>Trump’s ratings are currently 39.1% approve, 55.6% disapprove, in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a>. Before the gun massacre, Trump’s approval had risen to 41.5% owing to perceptions of an improving US economy; for several weeks, Trump’s approval was at least 40%.</p>
<p>Democrats lead by 47.0-38.8 in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo">race for Congress</a>. Before the massacre, the Democrats’ lead had fallen to 6.4 points. All 435 US House of Representatives seats will be up for election in November, and also one-third of the 100 senators. Democrats probably need a mid-to-high single-digit popular vote margin to win control of the House of Representatives.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-us-economy-boosts-trumps-ratings-as-democrats-shut-down-government-for-three-days-90437">Strong US economy boosts Trump's ratings, as Democrats shut down government for three days</a>
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<h2>Italian election: March 4</h2>
<p>The Italian election will be held on March 4. 37% of both chambers of the Italian parliament will be elected by first past the post, and the remainder by proportional representation.</p>
<p>Italy imposes a blackout on polling during the final two weeks of election campaigns. The last polls were published on or before February 16.</p>
<p>In the final <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018#Coalition_vote">pre-blackout polls</a>, the centre-right coalition was in the high 30s, with the centre-left coalition and the populist left Five Star Movement trailing with about 27% each. A left-wing breakaway from the centre-left had about 6%.</p>
<p>Even though the overall left vote is about 60%, the right could win a majority owing to the first-past-the-post seats. </p>
<p>The centre-right coalition includes former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s old party (Forza Italia). Although Berlusconi is banned from contesting elections, he could be <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b05ce19e-17bc-11e8-9376-4a6390addb44">the power behind the throne</a> if his coalition wins a majority in both chambers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-elections-in-2018-see-2017s-left-wing-revival-continue-89922">Will elections in 2018 see 2017's left-wing revival continue?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Liberals should win a majority at Saturday’s Tasmanian state election.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/919852018-02-25T19:19:38Z2018-02-25T19:19:38ZAs Tasmania looks likely to have minority government, the Greens must decide how to play their hand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207436/original/file-20180222-65236-2h6v3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tasmanians Greens leader Cassy O'Connor (centre) on the hustings.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rob Blakers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to Tasmanian Greens leader Cassy O'Connor, “<a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/tasmanian-state-election-will-hodgman-meets-kate-warner-to-call-poll/news-story/bebf4d99bce4740fbc50b446f4068579">minority government is government for grown-ups</a>”, whereas “majority government is government for vested interests, corruption and corporate deals”.</p>
<p>The Greens’ pitch to voters at Saturday’s Tasmanian state election is not being couched in policy terms alone. It is also based on a vision of a more desirable governing context for Tasmania. But is minority government good for the Greens?</p>
<h2>The likelihood of minority government</h2>
<p>There is a high probability that the Greens will get their wish and a minority government will be returned at this election. </p>
<p>Tasmania elects its lower house using a form of proportional representation known as the <a href="http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/tpl/backg/HAElections.htm">Hare-Clark system</a>, where parties are awarded seats roughly in accordance with their levels of support within the electorate. Unless a party can win an overall majority of votes, it will not attain the necessary majority of seats to form a government in its own right. </p>
<p>In recent decades, the two major parties have struggled to secure governing majorities. In the eight Tasmanian elections since 1989, majority governments have been elected on only five occasions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanian-election-likely-to-be-close-while-labor-continues-to-lead-federally-90827">Tasmanian election likely to be close, while Labor continues to lead federally</a>
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<p>There is general agreement among commentators that a majority government at this election is far from certain. The Liberal Party attained 51.22% of the vote in 2014, and lead Labor in most polls. However, according to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/29/tasmanian-election-hung-parliament-would-be-wake-up-call-to-major-parties">analysis by Ben Raue</a>, the Liberals polled above 40% in just one of five polls held in the last year. If these figures are translated into actual votes, minority government is inevitable.</p>
<p>One might think that the possibility of minority government would render the major parties open to working with the Greens to form government. Yet the incumbent premier, Will Hodgman, has already <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/no-deals-as-tasmania-heads-to-the-polls-on-march-3">declared</a> that the Liberals “will govern alone or not at all”. </p>
<p>Likewise, Labor leader Rebecca White has also confirmed that her party “will not govern in minority”. </p>
<p>Much of this talk should be taken seriously but not literally. The major parties will be under pressure to negotiate an agreement of some description in the likely event of a hung parliament. </p>
<p>Any party that seeks to govern without the support of opposition forces will be perpetually at risk of defeat on the floor of the lower house. This reality is likely to weaken the resolve of even the most stubborn party leader – even more so once Governor Kate Warner makes the necessary entreaties.</p>
<p>However, it is not certain that the Greens will be the only parliamentary grouping in the mix to form a minority government. The most recent <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/new-commissioned-tasmanian-polls.html">polling data</a> (based on a MediaReach internal poll commissioned by the Liberal Party) has the Greens’ statewide primary vote at under 13%, which may not prove sufficient to secure the all-important “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018/guide/hinge-seats/">hinge seat</a>” in each of the five multi-member electorates.</p>
<p>One of the particular challenges the Greens are confronting in 2018 is Labor’s capacity to outmanoeuvre them. As psephologist Kevin Bonham has <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/05/emrs-both-majors-rebuild-following.html">observed</a>, the Greens are being squeezed by the appeal of Labor’s “left-wing leader”.</p>
<p>Labor has also stolen the Greens’ thunder on the pokies issue, and its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-15/labor-sets-120-per-cent-renewable-energy-target/9451088">energy policy</a> – complete with 120% renewable energy target – is likely to find favour with environmentally concerned voters. </p>
<p>Adding to the uncertainty is the prospect – albeit faint given <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/02/15/tasmanian-election-minus-two-half-weeks/">recent polling</a> – of the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) electing one, possibly two candidates. The JLN might make more attractive legislative partners for the major parties than the Greens.</p>
<h2>Is minority government good for the Greens?</h2>
<p>There is a deeper question that the Greens must ask: whether it is prudent for them to enter into any kind of formal arrangement with either major party. </p>
<p>There are advantages in the short term, such as policy concessions and even the possibility of executive office. But the longer-term consequences are far less clear.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-the-first-test-in-an-election-laden-year-90828">Tasmania the first test in an election-laden year</a>
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<p>The Tasmanian Greens suffered <a href="http://elections.uwa.edu.au/listelections.lasso">swings against them</a> following the three previous occasions that they entered into some form of agreement to support a minority government: -3.9% in 1992, -2.1% in 1996, and -7.8% in 2014.</p>
<p>Though there were unique circumstances surrounding each of these agreements, it is unclear if the benefits outweigh the costs for the Greens. One <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00652.x/full">international study</a> concluded that participation in government “is not necessarily bad for Green parties”, which falls well short of a ringing endorsement. </p>
<p>If, following this election, the Greens are needed to form a stable government, then the party will have to think strategically about the terms on which it does so. Is participation in executive office a higher prize than consistency of electoral performance?</p>
<p>If the Greens value the former, then securing a formal agreement is the best way forward. But if they value the latter, then a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-confidence-and-supply-government-40442">confidence-and-supply agreement</a>” is their best option. This would allow the Greens to demand additional parliamentary resources and to shape the fate of legislation, without having to shoulder responsibility for government failures at a critical time in the party’s development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Both major parties have declared they will not form minority government in Tasmania – talk that should be taken seriously, but not literally.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/912352018-02-12T19:07:51Z2018-02-12T19:07:51ZWhy the Jacquie Lambie Network’s Tasmanian health plan doesn’t add up<p>The polls are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/29/tasmanian-election-hung-parliament-would-be-wake-up-call-to-major-parties">predicting a hung parliament</a> in Tasmania’s March 3 election. So it’s not surprising that key political players are starting to jockey for position. The Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) has stepped into this fray, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/health-ministry-lambies-price-for-power-in-hung-parliament/news-story/ff654ebe709a86e53be68aeaa658e658">demanding control of the health ministry</a> in return for providing a guarantee of confidence and support to a minority government.</p>
<p>“Enough is enough,” the JLN campaign page says, explaining that: </p>
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<p>“… despite heroic efforts by our doctors, nurses and other health professionals the Tasmanian health system is in permanent crisis. It has been mismanaged by successive Labor and Liberal administrations for well over a decade and beyond.” </p>
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<p>The JLN has a “<a href="http://www.lambienetwork.com.au/tasmania_health_system">plan to fix</a>” this situation, but it is short on detail and unlikely to improve the health system or outcomes for Tasmanians over the longer term. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanian-election-likely-to-be-close-while-labor-continues-to-lead-federally-90827">Tasmanian election likely to be close, while Labor continues to lead federally</a>
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<h2>The state of the Tasmanian health system</h2>
<p>Health is an important topic of debate in Tasmania, given the state experiences some of the <a href="http://www.dhhs.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/224567/Healthy_Tasmania_Strategic_Plan_Web_v8_LR.pdf">poorest health outcomes</a> in the country. Tasmania suffers from high rates of chronic disease, obesity and smoking, poor nutrition, and low physical activity levels. </p>
<p>Many of these indicators will come as no surprise, given Tasmania struggles with high unemployment in some areas and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-25/tasmania-still-has-lowest-economic-growth-despite-retail-upturn/7656852">low economic growth</a> relative to other states and territories. Although there has been <a href="http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_SAFOUR/LFR_UnemploymentRate">some improvement</a> in recent years, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-17/more-tasmanians-living-in-poverty-action-urged/7937698">entrenched poverty</a> remains a problem for the island state.</p>
<p>The JLN makes a number of criticisms of the Tasmanian health system including: long waiting times for surgery, a lack of “properly funded and clinically staffed” hospital beds and a health system that is uncoordinated and mismanaged. </p>
<p>It contests that elective surgery waiting lists are “out of control”, with “Tasmanians often waiting four times longer than our counterparts across the Bass Strait”. </p>
<h2>The JLN plan to ‘fix’ health</h2>
<p>The plan for addressing these issues is vague, at best. The first stage is to employ the services of Aspen Medical, a private firm, which will “review” the health system and recommend ways to speed up hospital admissions and reduce waiting lists for surgery. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aspenmedical.com/">Aspen Medical</a> describes itself as a “global provider of guaranteed, innovative and tailored health care solutions across a diverse range of sectors”. It has provided services nationally and internationally under contract to various levels of the Australian government, among other clients.</p>
<p>Further, at a time when governments are again under pressure for <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/87978-tony-shepherd-public-service-capability-run-far/#.WnKEW7R2D2k.twitter">using too many consultants</a>, this might not seem like an obvious choice to “save” the health system. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/public-hospital-blame-game-heres-how-we-got-into-this-funding-mess-89498">Public hospital blame game – here's how we got into this funding mess</a>
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<p>Following the scoping study to identify the problems in the system, in the medium term, the JLN says there will be “a special intervention by Aspen or a comparable company”. </p>
<p>Over the longer term, a feasibility and benefit study into a new public and private health centre will be completed, with the aim of building a new hospital located on a greenfield site in a central location on the North-West Coast. </p>
<h2>Will this work?</h2>
<p>It’s unlikely to make a difference. Both the starting point and the solutions offered aren’t quite right. </p>
<p>The state of the Tasmanian health system is not as dire as Lambie and colleagues make out. While it is true that Tasmania has traditionally <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-15/tasmania-worst-performing-state-on-elective-surgery-wait-times/6854928">performed badly</a> in terms of waiting times for surgery, <a href="http://www.dhhs.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/60176/Improving_Time_to_Treatment_-_Tasmania_s_Elective_Surgery_Access_-_DHHS_Wide_-_THOs_-_Policy_-_200911201_-_UNDER_REVIEW.pdf">successive improvement plans</a> have had <em>some</em> impact. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/health/public-hospitals/rogs-2018-parte-chapter12.pdf">Recent figures</a> on the performance of public hospitals show that in 2017, 90% of those on the waiting list were seen within 300 days, down from 450 days the year before. </p>
<p>More than half of those on the waiting list were treated within 41 days in 2017, down from 60 the previous year and only a few days above the national average of 38 days. </p>
<p>This is not to say that there is no further room for improvement. But the process of turnaround seems to be in place. Hard working clinical professionals should be supported to continue these gains, rather than simply just abandoning wholesale the approaches adopted. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-a-snapshot-of-hospitals-in-australia-56139">Infographic: a snapshot of hospitals in Australia</a>
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<p>Debates have rumbled on for years about the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-17/tasmanian-health-system-underfunding-costing-lives/8447440">lack of hospital beds in Tasmania</a> and whether the health system is underfunded. It may be true that there is a need to increase capacity of hospital beds in the state. But <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-24/how-sick-is-the-royal-hobart-hospital/8555030">this alone will not deal</a> with the health system’s challenges. </p>
<p>Building a new hospital may alleviate some of the pressures that Tasmania faces; although the idea that there is an “ideal” site to situate a hospital is fanciful at best and will likely encounter challenges of those who live close to a hospital at present. </p>
<p>But the more worrying part of this plan relates to the fact that it treats hospitals as the most important part of the health care delivery infrastructure. Much of the international literature on health systems suggests a need to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953617304793">move away from hospital-centric</a> models of service delivery. </p>
<p>As developed nations encounter growing numbers of people with chronic and complex illness, we need to enhance community and primary care to most effectively and efficiently serve this population’s health needs. This is even more pressing in contexts of socioeconomic disadvantage. Investing in preventative care is a way to improve patient outcomes and, over the longer term, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809427/">slow growth in health funding increases</a>. </p>
<p>The evidence shows that Tasmania spends <a href="http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php/article/community-health-underfunded-by-84-million">significantly less</a> than other states on public health interventions. By simply focusing on waiting times and hospital admissions, the JLN is missing an important part of the health system. In effect, this plan is seeking to treat the symptoms and not the cause. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/focus-on-prevention-to-control-the-growing-health-budget-13665">Focus on prevention to control the growing health budget</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91235/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Dickinson receives funding from ARC, NHMRC, ACT Government and One Disease. </span></em></p>The Jacqui Lambie Network plan is short on detail and unlikely to improve the health system or outcomes for Tasmanians over the longer term.Helen Dickinson, Associate Professor, Public Service Research Group, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/857422017-10-18T02:49:10Z2017-10-18T02:49:10ZBob Brown wins his case, but High Court leaves the door open to laws targeting protesters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190291/original/file-20171016-1470-16mhuz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bob Brown was arrested under an anti-protest law after refusing to obey police directions to leave a forestry coup at Lapoinya State Forest.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The High Court has <a href="http://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2017/HCA/43">ruled today</a> by a 6:1 majority in favour of Bob Brown and Jessica Hoyt’s challenge to the validity of a Tasmanian anti-protest law. The decision is a significant win for forestry and public-interest activists, although it does not go as far as some may have hoped. </p>
<p>The court found the Tasmanian law was unbalanced and unreasonable. However, it affirmed the right of parliaments to target protesters who interfere with business operations.</p>
<p>Despite this, the case will cause many states to review their protest laws. </p>
<h2>Background to the case</h2>
<p>The Tasmanian Parliament passed the law in question, the <a href="http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/tas/num_act/wfpa201425o2014498/">Workplace (Protection from Protesters) Act</a>, in 2014. </p>
<p>This came soon after the state had elected a new Liberal government, which had run a significant part of its campaign on a promise to “rebuild” Tasmania’s forestry industry. <a href="https://theconversation.com/criminalising-dissent-anti-protest-law-is-an-ominous-sign-of-the-times-34790">That included</a> tearing up a <a href="https://theconversation.com/end-of-tasmanias-forest-peace-deal-heralds-more-uncertainty-31010">peace deal</a> between loggers and conservationists, allowing companies to sue protesters for defamation, and toughening the law to deter protesters.</p>
<p>The Workplace (Protection from Protesters) Act criminalised certain forms of protest that interfered with “business activity” at any “business premises” or “business access area”. This included forestry and other industrial activities on public or private land. </p>
<p>Workplaces are already protected by a range of existing laws. But the Tasmanian act imposed much higher financial and criminal penalties that were easier for police to enforce.</p>
<p>Under the act, police could prevent the commencement or continuation of an on-site political protest that they reasonably believe would, or was about to, prevent, hinder or obstruct a “business activity” at any “business premises” or “business access area”. </p>
<p>This involved, among other things, allowing police to direct protesters to leave and stay away from certain areas for up to three months. Protesters who failed to do this faced fines of up to A$10,000 and four years in jail.</p>
<p>Brown and Hoyt were among a larger group of the first protesters arrested under the act in January 2016. They and other protesters refused to obey police directions to leave a forestry coup at Lapoinya State Forest, in Tasmania’s northwest. </p>
<p>Brown was the first protester to <a href="https://theconversation.com/bob-brown-takes-to-the-high-court-to-put-hardline-anti-protest-laws-to-the-test-76991">challenge the law’s validity</a> in the High Court. After he did this the state dropped charges against him, due to apparent confusion about which sections of the act he had actually breached. </p>
<p>There was some suspicion that the abandonment of Brown’s charges was also motivated by a desire to circumvent the court challenge. This was amplified when Hoyt’s charges were also dropped after she joined Brown’s action. All of the protesters’ charges were later dropped, and Tasmania sought to have the court challenge discontinued on the grounds that Brown no longer had a “special interest” (or standing) in the matter. </p>
<p>Tasmania subsequently withdrew the challenge to standing in March 2017, after several states and the Commonwealth intervened in the matter. This meant the High Court was only asked to determine the constitutional validity of the Tasmanian law. </p>
<p>Brown and Hoyt argued the act targeted and singled out protesters as a special category without taking into account the importance of protest in a liberal democracy. </p>
<p>They argued that, under the constitutionally protected freedom of political communication, the act was illegitimate and unreasonable: it disproportionately balanced between the need to protect political communication and protect workplaces. </p>
<p>Tasmania argued the act was primarily aimed at protecting business, rather than protest. Some protesters, it argued, posed a special risk to business in the state, and the legislation was narrow and tailored to them. According to Tasmania, protesters still could voice their political views on non-business land or business access areas, ensuring freedom of political communication in the state. </p>
<p>Apart from Western Australia, all states and the Commonwealth joined the action on Tasmania’s side. This suggested concern about the case’s impact on their ability to pass similar laws. Western Australia initially filed to do the same but did not proceed, after its anti-protest bill failed to pass <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-07/wa-protest-laws-on-back-burner-till-after-election/7824184">through its parliament</a>.</p>
<h2>What did the court find?</h2>
<p>The court unanimously found that the act’s stated aims were legitimate. It rejected the assertion that laws that singled out protesters are, of themselves, unconstitutional. However, the court also recognised the Tasmanian law was:</p>
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<p>… enacted against a background where protesters, or at least some of them, were perceived to be those persons, or groups, who would cause damage or disrupt economic activities during protests of particular kinds.</p>
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<p>That other laws already exist to stop interference with business and forestry operations (regardless of whether someone is a protester or not) was not relevant to the decision. This was because protesters create a “particular mischief” that deserves legislation specific to that mischief. This will give some comfort to states that have similar legislation to Tasmania’s. </p>
<p>Despite legitimately aiming to criminalise disruptive protesters, six judges found the way in which the Tasmanian law sought to achieve this was disproportionate and used unnecessary provisions.</p>
<p>All of the majority judges agreed the legislation was confusing, vague and poorly written. </p>
<p>Justice Gageler described its provisions as creating “Pythonesque absurdity” when applied to various foreseeable public gatherings. He noted that the provisions were not only broad and vague in reach, but seemed to create sanctions and penalties far outside the actual purported interference with a workplace. These were, at best, a “blunt instrument to achieve that purpose”. </p>
<p>In particular, Justice Gaegler was concerned with the lack of justification for the times that people could be sent away from a protest site, and just how far they can be sent. These police powers had no relationship with the actual threat to specific workplace activities at specific sites. </p>
<p>Chief Justice Kiefel, in a joint judgement with Justices Bell and Keane (with Justice Nettle agreeing in a separate judgement), suggested that the act’s vagueness and uncertainty were actually designed to give the act a broader reach than just business or forestry land.</p>
<p>While their judgements considered almost all the act’s operative provisions to be invalid, other judges were much more focused on specific provisions. </p>
<p>Unifying all the judgements was a concern that the part of the act that allowed police to order a person off land on a mere suspicion they were or might interfere with a business activity for a four-day period was arbitrary, and could not be justified. Justice Gordon considered only this provision to be invalid. </p>
<p>However, Justice Edelman considered the act to only cover conduct that was already unlawful by making certain high-threshold and more prominent illegal acts more targeted and specific. He therefore concluded that it was valid in its entirety.</p>
<h2>What does it all mean?</h2>
<p>The court varied on which parts of the act were invalid. However, the majority of judges declared sufficient parts of the act unconstitutional to ensure it cannot survive in its current state.</p>
<p>So, the current law is no more. Brown and Hoyt won a major victory.</p>
<p>However, the wider contest between protesters and government remains open. The court made it clear there is no “right to protest” <em>per se</em>, nor a restriction on parliaments targeting protesters who they consider go too far in the name of a political cause.</p>
<p>This part of the decision will disappoint some who had hoped that creating a higher threshold of penalties for those who commit a crime for the purposes of protest, should be unconstitutional on the ground that it is never legitimate to single out protest as a crime. So too will the court’s wider avoidance of considering the much more harsh penalties imposed on protesters than other criminal activities that have the same effect.</p>
<p>The decision will also have implications for legal challenges against Tasmania’s other anti-protest laws, which create “safe access zones” to protect women attending abortion clinics. These laws had been put on hold while the High Court considered Brown’s challenge.</p>
<p>The safe access zones legislation <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/anti-abortion-protester-to-appeal-conviction-under-tasmanian-law/7856290">allows police</a> to move on or arrest protesters who are 150 metres from an abortion clinic, regardless if they are actually interfering directly with, or are visible to, patients. In Tasmania’s small CBDs, this could effectively stop people protesting at all in the city centre, given the overlapping zones. The lack of tailoring in that legislation may prove a problem.</p>
<p>In many ways, this decision was predictable from the outset of the charges against Brown and the other protesters. The confusion and poorly-constructed Tasmanian legislation made it especially vulnerable to attack. But that has meant the win is against vague and undisciplined drafting, rather than against anti-protest laws more generally.</p>
<p>While many states will now be reviewing their own anti-protest laws, it will be to determine how to make them more specific and targeted to an identified threat to controversial business activities, such as forestry, mining or fracking. They may be slightly buoyed by the court’s unanimous confirmation that they can limit protest activities that interfere with such operations. The public and political war has not ended just yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Gogarty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bob Brown’s successful High Court challenge to an anti-protest law in Tasmania will cause many states to review their own protest laws.Brendan Gogarty, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/823692017-08-13T21:13:47Z2017-08-13T21:13:47ZHow to engineer a plebiscite disaster: lessons from the Tasmanian dams vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181757/original/file-20170811-1170-1p7tg3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Like its Tasmanian predecessor, the marriage plebiscite has been engineered by the leader’s intransigent opponents.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is an <a href="http://bigthink.com/the-proverbial-skeptic/those-who-do-not-learn-history-doomed-to-repeat-it-really">old saying</a> that those who don’t learn from history’s mistakes are bound to repeat them. One wonders if Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull recalls the name of <a href="http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/history/tasparl/lowed583.htm">Doug Lowe</a>, for Turnbull’s marriage equality postal plebiscite is on the cusp of recreating the mistakes of Lowe’s Tasmanian dams plebiscite.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy-82245">Using the ABS to conduct a same-sex marriage poll is legally shaky and lacks legitimacy</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>What happened in Tasmania?</h2>
<p>Lowe was the Labor premier of Tasmania between 1979 and 1981. These were the years when Tasmanians were split over the issue of hydroelectricity schemes – a split that was replicated at every level of Lowe’s political party.</p>
<p>At stake was the future of the Franklin and Gordon rivers located in the state’s southwest. About half of the community wanted the rivers dammed as part of a hydroelectricity scheme; about 10% wanted some other rivers impounded and the Franklin saved; and about 35% expressed no official position.</p>
<p>We know these figures because, in a bid to circumvent a decision-making paralysis in his government and his party, Lowe opted in 1981 to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_power_referendum,_1981">hold a statewide plebiscite</a>. He was hoping to use public opinion to force his party colleagues to make a decision.</p>
<p>The figures just cited are based on the result, although the plebiscite and its outcome was – for a time – almost as contentious as the land-use dispute itself.</p>
<p>The plebiscite offered only two options: the Franklin Dam, or an alternative dam on another nearby river. The alternative scheme received a vote of 7.94%, and the Franklin 47.17%. But a large number of ballots – 44.89% – were initially rendered informal.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Graeme_Orr/publication/29454591_The_Conduct_of_Referenda_and_plebiscites_in_Australia_A_legal_perspective/links/53db0c2c0cf2a19eee8b43ff/The-Conduct-of-Referenda-and-plebiscites-in-Australia-A-legal-perspective.pdf">major controversy</a> arose when it was revealed that a number of voters had used ticks or crosses to indicate their choice. Others wrote in “No Dams”. Under Tasmanian electoral law, the ballots with ticks and crosses were initially counted as “informal”. On legal advice, these were later included.</p>
<p>So, with 23,839 ballots now included in the count, the official result was a 9.78% vote for the alternative scheme, 54.72% for the Franklin dam, and 35.5% informal.</p>
<p>Clearly, this technical failure deprived the plebiscite of any legitimacy it might otherwise have had. </p>
<p>But a case could be made that the exercise was doomed from the start. The alternative hydro scheme had been Lowe’s idea as a way of brokering a compromise between a handful of Labor MPs who would support nothing but the Franklin scheme, another small group who wanted to save the Franklin, and a third group who just wanted some sort of decision so the government could get back to work on something else.</p>
<h2>Lessons for Turnbull</h2>
<p>The dynamics behind Tasmania’s dam plebiscite and Turnbull’s management of the marriage equality debate are eerily similar. This is even more the case when it is remembered that Lowe actually wanted to save the Franklin, just as everyone knows that Turnbull <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-25/turnbull-says-australia-odd-one-out-on-same-sex-marriage/6495432">supports the idea of marriage equality</a>.</p>
<p>As part of his strategy to use community opinion to help him get his government out of a mess of its own making, Lowe had wanted a “No Dams” option included in the plebiscite. But every level of the Labor Party organisation rebuffed him, so the option was not included.</p>
<p>This defeat led to Lowe’s resignation as premier, before the vote was even held. But his opponents’ tactic led to a much more surprising and enduring legacy. </p>
<p>Faced with a plebiscite that excluded their core demand, Tasmanian conservationists urged supporters and sympathisers not to vote for either scheme, but instead to write “No Dams” on their ballot. Scrutineers reported that 33.4% of ballots cast in the plebiscite had been adorned with the slogan. </p>
<p>For Lowe, Labor (which was to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_state_election,_1982">lose the state election</a> months later) and the proponents of the Franklin dam, the plebiscite was an unmitigated disaster.</p>
<p>Like its Tasmanian predecessor, the marriage plebiscite has been engineered by the leader’s intransigent opponents. The risk of the ballot being marred by technical flaws is enormous given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy-82245">bypassing of the Australian Electoral Commission</a> as the authority to manage the vote. </p>
<p>The replication of history will be complete if, at the end of the count, a huge number of blank ballots are lodged – many adorned instead with a slogan. “Free Vote” is one such slogan that comes to mind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malcolm Turnbull’s postal plebiscite on marriage equality is on the cusp of recreating the mistakes of Doug Lowe’s Tasmanian dams plebiscite.Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/620952016-07-11T03:49:45Z2016-07-11T03:49:45ZIf it needs it, Australia can draw on significant experience of minority government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129947/original/image-20160711-24105-1jh9d6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia is fortunate to have had the recent Labor minority government to draw lessons from.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Though Malcolm Turnbull has <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-celebrates-victory-after-shorten-concedes-defeat-62273">declared victory</a> in the 2016 election race, it <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/">remains unclear</a> whether he will form a majority or minority government.</p>
<p>Australia has a wealth of experience of minority government. While it has only had one national minority government recently, every single state and territory <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/the-fabulous-fiftieth-nsw-parliament-and-other-minority-governments">has had a minority government</a> since 1990. One-third of post-second-world-war state and territory governments were <a href="http://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/minority-government-in-the-australian-states-from-ersatz-majoritarianism-to-minoritarianism(18af6246-46bd-4a49-83d8-c76f8045b573).html">supported in minority</a> – usually by crossbench independents.</p>
<p>We do notice the sensational minority governments when they occur. For example, the Greens in Tasmania <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264978962_Minority_Government_The_Liberal_Green_experience_in_Tasmania">supported a minority government</a> (Labor) for only the second time in the world between 1989 and 1991; they then supported the Liberals between 1996 and 1998; and then Labor again, but with two ministries, between 2010 and 2013.</p>
<p>Most people noticed Nick Greiner’s scandal-plagued and difficult <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/nick-greiners-fate-a-lesson-for-political-reformers-20130701-2p760.html">Coalition minority government</a> in New South Wales in the 1990s, with Tony Windsor among others on the crossbench. And most noticed that South Australian Labor Premier Mike Rann <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/south-australias-cabinet-experiment">included National Party members</a> in his cabinet in the early 2000s.</p>
<p>Despite this wealth of experience, which resulted from the electorate voting for minor parties and “Others” in increasing numbers, the fact that Julia Gillard had to govern in minority federally between 2010 and 2013 was depicted as an absolute national crisis.</p>
<p>Remarkably, despite the destabilising politics levelled at it by the opposition, the Gillard government deftly negotiated and passed legislation <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jun/28/australia-productive-prime-minister">at record levels</a> – unlike the Abbott Coalition majority government <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/is-tony-abbotts-regime-the-worst-federal-government-ever-20150803-giqtnx.html">that succeeded it</a>.</p>
<h2>First steps</h2>
<p>No matter what the end result of the 2016 election, Australia is fortunate to have the recent 2010-13 Labor minority government to draw lessons from. The most significant lesson is that minority governments can successfully prosecute their policy agendas even while being destabilised.</p>
<p>Critical to this is learning the first, most obvious lesson of minority government: to lock in your supporters, most likely with policy concessions, and in return to gain their support on confidence and supply.</p>
<p>A minority government needs to be able to operate. For that it needs its budget, or supply, to be passed without issue. It also needs to be able to survive the inevitable no-confidence motions that will come from the opposition.</p>
<p>Without crossbenchers guaranteeing these two necessities, minority government is in for an uncertain ride. And the governor-general may want proof both are guaranteed.</p>
<p>This proof is typically a written agreement, <a href="http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/383476/parliamentaryagreement.pdf">like the one</a> between the ACT Labor minority government and the Greens. But besides guaranteeing support, an agreement can commit to a joint vision, policies, reform opportunities, resources for crossbenchers, information provision, communication and agreed mechanisms for overcoming disputes.</p>
<p>There are any numbers of agreement styles <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Documents/minority-governments-in-australia-1989-2009-acco/Minority%20Governments%20Background%20Paper.pdf">to choose from</a>. The Tasmanian Labor minority government of 2010-14 claimed it had no agreement with the Greens; it exchanged fairly explicit letters of arrangement with them instead.</p>
<h2>Keep calm and deploy the right people</h2>
<p>Just as there is no one style of agreement between minority governments and crossbenchers, so is there no one style of crossbencher. Government-crossbencher liaison must therefore be the province of very capable people.</p>
<p>Tasmanian Labor caretaker premier David Bartlett and Gillard separately provided just the right type of creative, pragmatic, calm and confident leadership that was required to pull off minority government, both after elections in 2010.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese, as leader of the house, was the key operative who negotiated legislation through parliament at record rates with the Labor government in minority.</p>
<p>Turnbull <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/03/even-if-turnbull-wins-he-loses-and-even-if-shorten-loses-he-wins">warned before the 2016 election</a> that minority government is an outcome that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… would be a national calamity and something he would never even contemplate.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Labor leader Bill Shorten offered a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-bill-shorten-leaves-door-ajar-for-hung-parliament-deals-with-nongreens-20160624-gpqw5u.html">more measured response</a>, secure in his direct experience of the Gillard minority government.</p>
<p>It takes time, temperament and negotiation to construct minority government. It is hard work, but as it has become normalised at state level, conventions and expectations have accommodated it, and the fear-mongering has subsided.</p>
<h2>Deal with whatever the electorate serves up</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2016-reveals-the-end-of-the-rusted-on-voter-and-the-death-of-the-two-party-system-61373">shift away from the major parties</a> is a trend that is not reversing, however incremental it may seem. It is reshaping Australian politics, including heightening the need for power-sharing governments.</p>
<p>Where the electorate feels line ball about the major parties, it will turn in increasing numbers to minor parties and “Others”. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/">Witness the flight</a> of South Australian voters to the Nick Xenophon Team and Queenslanders to One Nation.</p>
<p>Probably one of the most difficult lessons of minority government that then-opposition leader Tony Abbott could not abide in 2010 was to accept the parliament that the people had delivered and learn to deal with it. His constant derision and undermining of the Gillard minority government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-08-22/labor-lacks-legitimacy-unfit-to-govern-abbott/954056">as less-than-legitimate</a> was an insult to voters’ choices.</p>
<p>In the days following an election, if a minority government is a possibility, the right tone to adopt by political leaders is one of respect for both the voters’ choices and for the MPs who may prove to be pivotal crossbenchers.</p>
<p>This is a time for calm reflection, transparent reassurances and deft strategising, as we learnt in the 17 days it took in 2010 before Gillard emerged with a deal to secure minority government with independent and the Green support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Minority governments can successfully prosecute their policy agendas even while being destabilised.Kate Crowley, Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/595192016-06-16T04:08:35Z2016-06-16T04:08:35ZState of the states: a handful of votes could decide Tasmania’s Liberal-held seats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125064/original/image-20160603-23298-11ia1n0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Shorten revisited his PR triumph of ten years earlier in Beaconsfield, Tasmania, early in the 2016 campaign.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Scott Gelston</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Ahead of polling day on July 2, our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">State of the states series</a> takes stock of the key issues, seats and policies affecting the vote in each of Australia’s states and territories.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>It was no coincidence that on the first day of the 2016 election campaign, Labor leader Bill Shorten <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/were-ready-bill-shorten-manoftheworkers-returns-ready-to-serve-20160508-gopcqp.html">revisited his PR triumph</a> of ten years earlier in Beaconsfield, Tasmania – in the electorate of Bass. </p>
<p>This is the town that saw a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/sundayprofile/stories/s1637536.htm">media frenzy in 2006</a> when two trapped miners emerged from days underground. They were welcomed by a younger version of the present opposition leader, who took charge of the spectacle as leader of the Australian Workers’ Union.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/pm-malcolm-turnbull-hits-the-hustings-in-the-marginal-seat-of-bass/news-story/013445888f6fa6feecedf5105fd1e1fe">also spent time</a> in Bass early in the campaign. He visited a vineyard that symbolises the best of Tasmania’s burgeoning agriculture and tourism industries.</p>
<h2>Key seats</h2>
<p>All three Tasmanian Liberal-held House of Representatives seats – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/bass/">Bass</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/lyon/">Lyons</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/brad/">Braddon</a> – will be critical to the election result. The remaining two lower house seats – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/deni/">Denison</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/fran/">Franklin</a> – are likely to remain with incumbents – as is most of the Senate, but with a twist.</p>
<p>The volatile Bass electorate includes Tasmania’s northern capital of Launceston. It has changed hands – either person or party – at almost half the federal elections since federation. It has elected a different MP at every election since 2001.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125082/original/image-20160603-11611-1l4wu04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bass is held by Liberal MP Andrew Nikolic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Gary Schafer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Famously, Bass marked the beginning of the end for the Whitlam government in a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_by-election,_1975">1975 byelection</a>; it recorded a 14.3% two-party-preferred swing to the Liberals. The present one-term Liberal member, Andrew Nikolic, has a four-point margin that may seem safe. But given Bass’s history, this means very little.</p>
<p>In the rural Lyons electorate, Liberal incumbent Eric Hutchinson, who is still building his profile, holds the seat by a slim 1.2% margin. </p>
<p>While it may comfort him that only two sitting members have been defeated in the electorate since 1975, it is quite possible the seat will revert to its traditional Labor roots. Industries such as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-02/milk-price-cuts-send-shockwaves-through-tasmanian-economy/7471984">dairy</a> and sheep farming have been hit by drought and tough market conditions, and forestry has <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/forestry-industry-in-structural-decline-like-car-industry-economists-say-20140305-347lp.html">continued to decline</a>.</p>
<p>Braddon is held narrowly by Brett Whiteley, a former state MP who achieved a 10% swing from the Labor incumbent in 2013. Braddon covers the northwest and western parts of the state, involving significant mining, agricultural and tourism industries. Mining especially has been struggling; the Mt Lyell copper mine <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-09/queenstown-residents-reeling-after-mount-lyell-mine-closure/5585754">closed in 2014</a> following safety issues and low copper prices. This may well cut into Whiteley’s 2.6% margin.</p>
<p>Tasmania’s 12 Senate seats are currently split five Labor (on the back of a strong 2010 vote), four Liberal, two Green, and independent Jacqui Lambie. All are recontesting.</p>
<p>The state’s senior minister (for tourism and international education), Richard Colbeck, has been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-10/tasmanian-federal-minister-relegated-to-fifth-on-senate-ticket/7313894">squeezed to fifth spot</a> on the Liberal Party ticket by the right-dominated state preselection process. Labor’s unaligned senator, Lisa Singh, has been dropped to an even more challenging <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-12/senator-at-risk-after-labor-unveils-senate-candidates/7410036">sixth spot</a> on the party’s ticket. </p>
<p>Both Colbeck and Singh, however, might cling to hopes that ticket position may be less critical because below-the-line voting is popular in Tasmania, and is now easier with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/senate-voting-changes-pass-so-how-do-we-elect-the-upper-house-now-55641">new electoral provisions</a>.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ Senate chances are assisted by the state government’s popularity, but will be held back by their conservative ticket. Labor benefits from a natural base but will be weakened by the low profile of some of its sitting senators. </p>
<p>Assuming the major parties continue to split five and four seats each, and with Greens Peter Whish-Wilson and Nick McKim likely to be re-elected, the remaining seat will most probably be fought between Lambie, Colbeck, Singh, and the Greens’ Anna Reynolds.</p>
<h2>Key state issues</h2>
<p>This is the first election in decades in which forestry is not a significant state issue. The state Liberal government has defused concerns by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-20/unesco-tasmania-abandons-world-heritage-area-logging-plans/7261350">acquiescing</a> to a recent UNESCO decision protecting the World Heritage Area;</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-17/tasmania-resources-minister-paul-harriss-resigns/7177396">replacing</a> its controversial resources minister in February; and </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.treasury.tas.gov.au/domino/dtf/dtf.nsf/LookupFiles/2016-17-Budget-Speech.pdf/$file/2016-17-Budget-Speech.pdf">signalling</a> in budget briefings that the state-owned Forestry Commission will be broken up.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>According to <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/reachtel-points-to-tasmanian-status-quo.html">ReachTEL polling in May</a>, the three issues of most concern to voters are health, jobs and education. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1189&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1189&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125083/original/image-20160603-11598-w3i0sa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1189&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Tasmania in late 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/William West</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Tasmanian economy is performing relatively well; it <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/CommSec_State_of_the_States_April2016.pdf">grew 2.8% in the last year</a>. Increasing niche <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-02/tas-ag-policy/6592838">agricultural exports</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-02/tasmania-records-another-big-jump-in-international-tourists/6744744">booming tourism</a> have benefited from the lower dollar and the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-18/china-president-meets-tassie-devils-during-hobart-visit/5898814">in 2014</a>. </p>
<p>The health system has been <a href="http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/releases/one_state,_one_health_system,_better_outcomes">rationalised</a>, and education retention rates <a href="http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/releases/national_report_highlights_education_gains,_but_still_more_to_do">are improving</a>. Many high schools now extend to year 12. Roads infrastructure and construction are also evident, especially in the state’s south.</p>
<p>At the same time, the prolonged <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-11/pressure-mounts-on-tasmanian-government-to-declare-drought/7079720">spring-summer drought</a> and the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-13/basslink-repairs-delayed-as-sever-weather-contidions-batter-tas/7411410">then-severed power cable</a>, Basslink, resulted in expensive emergency power generation measures as the state’s hydroelectric dams fell to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/04/calls-for-electricity-rationing-in-tasmania-as-dam-levels-fall-to-136">below 14% capacity</a>, the lowest in 50 years. </p>
<p>Despite recent rains, Tasmania’s renewable energy capability remains at issue due to its over-reliance on hydro generation. More wind farms are indicated in the state’s northwest, as promoted by <a href="http://www.greghunt.com.au/Home/LatestNews/tabid/133/ID/3786/Tasmania-key-focus-of-renewable-energy-investment-opportunities.aspx">Environment Minister Greg Hunt</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://antarctic.tas.gov.au/home/antarctic_attractions">Hobart’s status</a> as an Antarctic gateway and marine science hub was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-12/leaked-email-cast-further-doubt-future-csiro-antarctic-research/7409432">threatened by</a> the recent CSIRO decision to cut climate research. Opposition to the cuts by the staff union in Tasmania <a href="http://www.cpsu.org.au/content/tasmanians-rally-save-csiro-climate-cuts">has been vocal</a> and has engendered public sympathy. Labor <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/talking-point-labor-pledge-to-stop-planned-csiro-job-cuts/news-story/d092e5dd8b764c8a252fb4ef7eb74595">has promised</a> to halt further staff losses after the election, while the government has backed plans to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/csiro-sets-up-special-climate-centre-but-doubts-remain-over-scale-of-cuts-20160425-goervs.html">set up</a> a separate climate research centre. </p>
<p>Popular Denison independent Andrew Wilkie and Whish-Wilson labelled both major parties <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-12/labor-accused-of-being-hypocritical-over-csiro-cuts/7406288">hypocritical</a> on the issue – Labor oversaw significant job losses while in power and the Liberals have not intervened.</p>
<h2>Policy proposals</h2>
<p>The so-called <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-17/malcolm-turnbull-to-back-down-on-backpacker-tax/7420102">“backpacker tax”</a>, unpopular in the agriculture dependent regions, will be delayed under the Coalition and abolished under Labor. </p>
<p>The $16 million for the Cadbury factory upgrade, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/tony-abbott-pledges-16m-towards-cadbury-factory-revamp-in-tasmania/story-fnho52ip-1226705546266">originally promised</a> by Tony Abbott in 2013, has since been reallocated mainly to Liberal-held seats as part of a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-13/decision-on-cadbury-money-tasmania-corrupt-wilkie-says/7412320">jobs and investment fund</a>.</p>
<p>As well as promoting renewable energy industries, the Greens have popularly proposed to legislate penalty rates, outflanking Labor on the issue. </p>
<p>Lambie has support for veterans as one of her signature policies.</p>
<p>Given Tasmania’s relatively high dependence on welfare and public services, many contend that Labor’s emphasis on fairness, as well as health and public education funding, is getting traction with swinging voters.</p>
<p>All agree the seats of Bass, Lyons and Braddon will be in play on July 2. Two major party sitting senators are also at risk. As in previous elections, a handful of votes may well determine the final result.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Catch up on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">others in the series</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dain Bolwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All three Tasmanian Liberal-held House of Representatives seats – Bass, Lyons and Braddon – will be critical to the election result.Dain Bolwell, PhD Candidate in Politics and Public Policy, University of TasmaniaRichard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Institute for the Study of Social Change, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/413532015-05-06T07:43:55Z2015-05-06T07:43:55ZMilne got results from minority pacts with both sides of politics<p>Christine Milne, who has <a href="https://theconversation.com/greens-leader-christine-milne-resigns-di-natale-elected-41347">resigned</a> as leader of the Australian Greens, held the position for three years after succeeding the party’s founding leader, Bob Brown.</p>
<p>Immediately following her resignation, the parliamentary Greens elected a new leader, Victorian Senator and former GP Richard Di Natale – the first Greens leader not to come from Tasmania.</p>
<p>Milne’s explanation was that she will not be recontesting her Senate seat at the 2016 federal election, so decided to make way for a new leadership team (now comprising co-deputies Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam) to allow for a smooth transition and give the party time to consolidate ahead of the campaign.</p>
<p>What sort of legacy will she leave, and how successfully has she guided the party’s agenda since Brown’s departure?</p>
<h2>Electoral ups and downs</h2>
<p>Under Milne’s leadership, and following the Australian Greens’ support of the previous Labor-led minority government, the party <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-29/greens-election-loss-christine-milne-labor/4987506">lost votes</a> at the last election, but nevertheless retained all of its MPs and picked up another senator.</p>
<p>In Milne’s terms, the Greens’ role is to build political capital and then, when an opportunity like supporting minority government arises, to spend that capital on achieving policy outcomes like Labor’s <a href="http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2011B00166">clean energy bill</a>, which ushered in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/carbon-tax">carbon tax</a> in 2012.</p>
<p>This degree of influence on government policy was an impressive achievement for a farmer’s daughter, a fifth-generation Tasmanian from the state’s rural northwest, a one-time high school teacher and young mother whose life changed when she committed herself to environmental activism.</p>
<p>She was <a href="http://christine-milne.greensmps.org.au/about">arrested and jailed</a> in 1983 for blockading the flooding of the Franklin River, and then went on in the mid-1980s to unite farmers, fishers, scientists, environmentalists and community members against the billion-dollar Wesley Vale pulp mill.</p>
<p>Having risen from her self-described “humble beginnings in the rolling dairy hills of Wesley Vale”, she was elected to the Tasmanian Parliament in 1989 as member for the conservative, sprawling rural electorate of Lyons, and was party to the historic Labor-Green Accord in which five Greens supported a Labor minority government.</p>
<p>There were many environmental achievements under that Accord, including the creation of new national parks, additional world heritage and national estate forests nominations, abandoned forestry ventures and woodchip export limits. </p>
<p>Milne went on to become the Greens’ state leader – the first female leader of a political party in Tasmania. She remains the only female politician to have led a party at both state and federal levels. </p>
<p>In 1996, with Milne at the helm, the Tasmanian Greens ventured into new territory by supporting a Liberal minority government. The partnership <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kate_Crowley/publication/264978962_Minority_Government_The_Liberal_Green_experience_in_Tasmania/links/53fa93d40cf27c365cf037d4.pdf">delivered achievements</a> such as national parks and forest reserve declarations, deferred logging, and greener state development policy .</p>
<p>Milne has <a href="http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2008/february/1334530750/amanda-lohrey/green-christine">reflected</a> that her political highlights of this period, from 1996-98, included the introduction of gun law reform following the Port Arthur massacre, the liberalisation of gay laws, an apology to the Indigenous stolen generation and support for an Australian republic.</p>
<h2>The legacy</h2>
<p>Milne’s legacy straddles social and environmental policy successes. Her efforts as state Greens leader helped to push Tasmania towards what she <a href="http://christine-milne.greensmps.org.au/content/news-stories/about-christine-milne">called</a> a “clean, green, clever” future, and as federal leader she embraced moves towards delivering a more sustainable, low-carbon economy. </p>
<p>When supporting the Labor minority government from 2010 to 2013, Milne advocated a successful multi-party approach to the unprecedented introduction of carbon pricing in Australia and the establishment of associated bureaucracy and processes.</p>
<p>This aspect of her legacy was removed by the Abbott government (the only government in the world to have repealed such action), but Milne claims it is “the last stand of the vanquished”, adding that “the community is now leaving behind the fossil-fool age and getting on with realising clean energy”.</p>
<p>The repeal of carbon pricing was indicative of the Abbott government’s hostility to Milne’s environmental agenda. But Milne has claimed the acrimony as a motivating factor – one that has afforded the Greens an opportunity to recover their base as recent successes have shown at state elections.</p>
<p>This viewpoint was evident in her <a href="http://greensmps.org.au/content/news-stories/christine-milne-delivers-greens-2014-budget-reply-speech">dismissal</a> of Treasurer Joe Hockey’s 2014 budget as a “vicious attack on the fabric of our society” that let big business off the hook, that widened the gap between rich and poor, and that “abandons the environment and … jeopardises our future”.</p>
<p>Her resignation leaves behind a party with <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-15/greens-consider-major-reforms-amid-member-discontent-tasmania/5743158">reform challenges</a> but that has now made inroads not only in urban electorates but in some regional areas (including in the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-29/new-election-greens-say-voters-unhappy-with-major-parties/6356722">recent NSW election</a>) where Milne, as a farmer’s daughter, has helped built bridges on agricultural issues. </p>
<p>Action on climate change has been more than a political crusade for Christine Milne. And this area is where she will dedicate her efforts following her resignation. She has pledged to remain active in advocating for climate action, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/climate-wont-wait-mr-rudd/2008/07/19/1216163231976.html">saying</a>: “If ever our planet needed inspiring leadership, it is now.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Christine Milne has been seen as an ideological politician. But her record of working with minority governments of both stripes showed she could deliver on her agenda from outside the mainstream.Kate Crowley, Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/347902014-11-28T05:42:20Z2014-11-28T05:42:20ZCriminalising dissent: anti-protest law is an ominous sign of the times<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65776/original/image-20141128-9767-1e6j5d5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Criminals the lot of them: that is what people who stand against government plans 'to rebuild Tasmania’s forestry industry' could become under the new anti-protest law. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/bills/Bills2014/15_of_2014.htm">Workplaces (Protection from Protesters) Bill</a> – locally known as the “anti-protest” bill – <a href="http://www.examiner.com.au/story/2722527/protest-legislation-passed/?cs=95">was passed</a> by Tasmanian parliament late on Tuesday night. The law was introduced as part of the government’s intention to “re-build Tasmania’s forestry industry”. That is a source of controversy and division in Tasmanian society.</p>
<p>To achieve its aim, the government has committed itself to a wide <a href="https://www.tas.liberal.org.au/policy#RTFICDOIP">legislative agenda</a>. This includes: amending the uniform <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/tas/consol_act/da200599/">Defamation Act 2005</a> to allow large companies to sue protesters; defunding community and conservation organisations; and <a href="https://theconversation.com/end-of-tasmanias-forest-peace-deal-heralds-more-uncertainty-31010">tearing up a “peace deal”</a> between foresters and conservationists, which had been enacted into law before the 2014 election. </p>
<p>Recognising the potential return to hostilities, the government <a href="https://www.tas.liberal.org.au/sites/default/files/policy/Rebuilding%20the%20Forest%20Industry%20-%20cracking%20down%20on%20protestors.pdf">said</a> it would “not try and appease” protesters, but would rather “toughen the law to deter them”.</p>
<p>The anti-protest law is its chosen mechanism of deterrence. While such hard-line policies on political opposition are not new, the severity and breadth of the law to enforce such a policy arguably is.</p>
<p>The shift from hard-line policy to hard-line law is worrisome in a constitutional democracy. The spread of state anti-bikie laws in Australia illustrates why this law is not just of concern for Tasmanians. </p>
<h2>The business of silencing protests</h2>
<p>The new law covers all acts on, or acts inhibiting access to, a business premises (all public and private land, including forestry and mining lands) which are:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… in furtherance of, or for the purposes of promoting awareness of or support for an opinion, or belief, in respect of a political, environmental, social, cultural or economic issue.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Any such protest is subject to significant penalties if they interrupt “business activity”. While originally such sanctions were mandatory, the government agreed in the upper house to exchange these for discretionary penalties. </p>
<p>However, the government agreed to this only on condition that the subsequent maximum penalties would be significantly increased. This was to “send a strong message” to protesters and the courts charged with punishing them. As a consequence, protesters who repeatedly interrupt business face fines of up to A$10,000 and four years in jail. </p>
<p>From its inception, the law has been criticised by domestic and international lawyers. Three United Nations human rights rapporteurs considered the bill to <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=15002&LangID=E">breach international law</a>, one describing it as “shocking”. They considered the legislation, as originally envisioned, to be:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… disproportionate and unnecessary [creating a] chilling effect of silencing dissenters … [who are] key to raising awareness about human rights, political, [and] social concerns … holding not just governments, but also corporations accountable. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>A wide range of legal professionals have <a href="http://www.clctas.org.au/2014/10/ex-judge-pierre-slicer-urges-withdrawal-of-anti-protest-bill/">voiced similar criticisms</a>. While the removal of mandatory penalties alleviated some concerns, the larger concern about a law designed solely to punish people for protesting against controversial business activities – especially publicly supported and funded ones – remains. </p>
<h2>Right to protest? What right?</h2>
<p>Australia is the <a href="http://www.lawcouncil.asn.au/lawcouncil/images/LCA-PDF/a-z-docs/Factsheet-Q&A.pdf">only western democracy</a> to lack an entrenched bill or charter of rights. Nor do we enjoy a <a href="http://www.murdoch.edu.au/School-of-Law/_document/WA-jurist-documents/WAJ_Vol3_2012_Greenfeld---The-Asymmetry-of-the-Separation-of-Powers.pdf">strict separation of powers doctrine</a> to keep governmental power in check. Our civil rights are entirely the product of our parliamentary process – and entirely vulnerable to it.</p>
<p>The only thing that ensures this process operates in the public interest is the ability of electors to openly exchange criticism of governmental action, free of pressure or retribution, so that government remains representative and responsible. As High Court justice Brennan <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/DeakinLRev/1994/11.pdf">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It would be a parody of democracy to confer on the people a power to choose their Parliament but to deny the freedom of public discussion from which the people derive their political judgements.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tolerance of divergent ideas and expressions is important in any democracy, but in Australia, where we have few other protections, it is vital. That principle extends beyond mere words, but to acts and places too.</p>
<p>If the government controls where or how people say things it can greatly inoculate the strength of a political message, if not extinguish its impact altogether. In a society awash with information, individuals must adopt varying – perhaps sensational – approaches and measures to publicise dissent and disagreement with mainstream policies. That is not least because their message may not accord with the views of those who control dominant public forums. </p>
<p>That is not to say all speech should be unfettered; the government has a duty to regulate actions that undermine the public interest. It must also protect people’s business from criminal activities. However, such legal protections must be tailored and balanced against the constitutional obligation to ensure freedom of political expression.</p>
<h2>Law turns protest into a crime</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, the anti-protest law does not seek to engage in such a balancing process at all. Despite being pitched as “protecting workers’ rights”, the Tasmanian law makes no mention of industrial, political or other civil rights – it solely focuses on sanctioning protest. Nor does it provide legislative direction on how such rights and duties should be balanced. </p>
<p>In fact, workers’ rights and business interests are already protected by a wide range of civil and criminal laws. The anti-protest law seeks to do something more, specifically to scare people off protesting – that is, <a href="http://www.oed.com/view/Entry/153191?rskey=fjFtj4&result=1#eid">“expressing objection to or dissent”</a> about matters of public interest – by turning protest into a crime. It does so without providing any commensurate recognition of the constitutional importance of political protest, expression or dissent. </p>
<p>Previous protest and assembly laws have tended to be written cautiously, reinforcing rights as much as taking them away – for example, the <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/qld/consol_act/paa1992170/s2.html">Peaceful Assembly Act 1992 (Qld)</a>. The Tasmanian law is, simply put, brutal. It does not appear to once engage with the responsibility of government to foster all forms of political expression, even the types it doesn’t like; especially those types.</p>
<p>The anti-protest law indicates a move away from self-imposed governmental restraint towards a “get things done at all costs” attitude, even if the costs are disproportionate, unjustified and antithetical to Australia’s constitutional system. This law raises serious questions about the current attitudes and commitment to representative and responsible government in this country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34790/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Gogarty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Workplaces (Protection from Protesters) Bill – locally known as the “anti-protest” bill – was passed by Tasmanian parliament late on Tuesday night. The law was introduced as part of the government’s…Brendan Gogarty, Lecturer in Law, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.