tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/teddy-roosevelt-31794/articlesTeddy Roosevelt – The Conversation2024-01-14T12:58:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205182024-01-14T12:58:33Z2024-01-14T12:58:33ZDon’t count Biden out: January polls are historically unreliable<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/dont-count-biden-out-january-polls-are-historically-unreliable" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As 2024 begins, Joe Biden’s hopes of being re-elected president of the United States look shaky. Recent <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo">approval ratings have him at 39 per cent</a>, consumer sentiment on the economy sits near <a href="https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.php">a 10-year low</a> and early polls have him down about two points in a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com">hypothetical rematch with Donald Trump</a>. </p>
<p>How worried should Democrats be? </p>
<p>Several historical patterns are relevant and work in Biden’s favour.</p>
<h2>Democrats gripe, then return</h2>
<p>First, in seven of the last eight presidential elections, the Democrat has won more votes. The <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">Electoral College</a> aside, American voters lean Democratic. </p>
<p>Also, they don’t give up on a president very often. Since 1896, the only presidents to have taken over from the opposing party and then lost re-election were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/07/one-term-presidents-trump/">Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Trump in 2020</a>. Unless things are going very badly, re-election of a president is the most likely outcome. </p>
<p>Biden’s current polling doesn’t tell the whole story of his chances. For one, a poll’s timing should affect what we infer from it. Approval ratings in January of an election year don’t reflect the support that will likely exist in November. </p>
<p>Biden’s approval rating is 78 per cent among Democrats, but those numbers will likely improve by November if the re-elections of both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are any indication.</p>
<p>On Jan. 1, 2012, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">76 per cent of self-identifying Democrats approved of Obama’s job performance</a>. By the week of the 2012 election, it was 91 per cent. Ninety-two per cent of Democrats voted for him in 2012. </p>
<p>Similarly, Clinton’s <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">January 1996 approval rating among Democrats was 72 per cent</a>, but 86 per cent by the time the election was held. </p>
<p>Democrats are more likely to express dissatisfaction with their own presidents, but they return to the fold. That’s because months before an election, disapproval is an easy way for Democrats to relate their misgivings about their candidate. </p>
<p>As the year progresses, approval becomes more about the choice between their team’s candidate and the opposition. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000722">Campaigns ramp up partisanship later in an election year, and that hasn’t really begun yet</a>.</p>
<h2>Too soon</h2>
<p>Another hidden pocket of Biden support is among voters who are neither Democrats nor Republicans. Self-described independents’ approval of Biden is just under 30 per cent, but they preferred him to Trump by 52 per cent to 43 per cent <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">in 2020</a>. More than 30 per cent are likely to choose Biden this November.</p>
<p>Biden versus Trump polls this early are likely poor predictors of what’s to come, especially with a president running for re-election. The incumbent party candidate is known, while the media focuses on the debates and primaries of the other party. </p>
<p>In every January of an election year, it’s still not clear who will be the successful challenger to the president in November. Questions about hypothetical match-ups are more about a referendum on the president — whether they deserve re-election or how they compare to some possible alternative.</p>
<p>But as the year progresses and the opposition candidate is chosen, survey respondents focus more on the choice between candidates on Election Day. </p>
<p>Right now, disappointed liberals, some independents and Democrats who are worried about Biden’s age <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/kamala-harris-approval-rating-polls-vs-biden-other-vps/#:%7E:text=As%20of%20Jan.,update%20as%20new%20polls%20arrive.">(or Vice-President Kamala Harris waiting in the wings)</a> may tell pollsters they would vote for another candidate. But most will probably come back to Biden. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-bidens-ego-bring-trump-back-to-the-white-house-219469">Will Biden's ego bring Trump back to the White House?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>A highly unusual election year</h2>
<p>Still, 2024 is anything but typical. </p>
<p>In a routine re-election year, it takes time for voters to form opinions about the challenger. Voters already know Trump, who’s the first former president <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/16/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office/">since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 to seek the office again.</a> Roosevelt lost, incidentally.</p>
<p>Also, a second Biden-Trump showdown would be the first rematch since <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1956_Election/">Adlai Stevenson lost for a second time to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956</a>. If Trump is the nominee, voters will have well-defined opinions of both candidates already.</p>
<p>Worries about Biden’s age will be thought of more comparatively — Trump would be older at his second inauguration than Biden was at his first. Voters can also compare Biden’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/">economic record (400,000 jobs/month) to Trump’s (176,000 jobs/month prior to the COVID-19 pandemic)</a>.</p>
<p>Also, Trump’s interweaving of campaigning for president while fighting court battles in four jurisdictions will provide a daily contrast to Biden. A recent <em>Washington Post</em> poll <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/1f428bba-56ee-4800-b00d-7fd1b0004627.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">found 56 per cent of respondents think Trump is probably or definitely guilty of criminal conspiracy</a> regarding his claims of voter fraud and efforts to overturn the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Legal experts suggest Trump <a href="https://www.salon.com/2024/01/10/dead-man-walking-experts-say-immunity-lawyer-lost-after-he-set-a-trap-for-himself/">will probably be convicted this year on some charges.</a> The Supreme Court may even disqualify him from running, though that’s less likely.</p>
<h2>Be skeptical of polls for now</h2>
<p>With 2020 as a baseline, we know a lot about how voters will choose between Trump and Biden. With strong polarization between the parties, significant movement from the 2020 results will be unlikely. </p>
<p>Biden’s victory <a href="https://www.270towin.com">by seven million votes</a> included the key states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. That was good for 306 of 538 electoral votes. </p>
<p>The president could lose several of those swing states in 2024 and still prevail. Mid-terms in 2022 brought in many new voters — younger and pro-choice — who will likely add to that small cushion.</p>
<p>There are many unknowns for 2024, and Trump is not yet the Republican nominee. But in a Trump versus Biden rematch, not much will have changed and a similar result is most likely: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles. </p>
<p>Don’t believe all the numbers just yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Lebo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.Matthew Lebo, Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1985812023-03-24T12:37:05Z2023-03-24T12:37:05ZReaction to bronze sculpture of Coretta and Martin Luther King Jr. in Boston hasn’t been good – and that’s not bad for art that shatters conventions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517025/original/file-20230322-1452-42ggzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=231%2C21%2C1797%2C1329&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Coretta and Martin Luther King Jr. memorial sculpture at Boston Common is called 'The Embrace.' </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/embrace-the-dr-martin-luther-king-jr-memorial-sculpture-at-news-photo/1246205559?adppopup=true">Lane Turner/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As an acclaimed photographer and conceptual artist, <a href="https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2023/02/28/mlk-statue-embrace-backstory/">Hank Willis Thomas</a> has grown accustomed to criticisms of his unconventional art and concepts of identity.</p>
<p>But even Thomas <a href="https://time.com/6249068/martin-luther-king-sculpture-hank-willis-thomas-interview/">had never experienced anything like</a> the reaction to his latest sculpture, designed to commemorate the lives of Coretta and Martin Luther King Jr., two of the most revered civil rights leaders in modern American history.</p>
<p>Unveiled in January 2023, the two sets of 20-foot-tall bronze arms appear floating in air and are embracing. Those who visit the statue in Boston can also walk underneath it into the space between the Kings’ arms.</p>
<p>It was in Boston after all, that the two met and fell in love.</p>
<p>Despite the intended show of mutual affection between the Kings, many of the tweets shared on national news feeds after the unveiling were crude and misinterpreted arms for other body parts. </p>
<p>Tweeters decried: “Disrespectful,” “Obscene,” “Phallic,” “Gross” and “Insulting.”</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://compactmag.com/article/a-masturbatory-homage-to-my-family">online magazine Compact</a>, Seneca Scott, a labor union activist and cousin of Coretta Scott King, depicted the sculpture, titled “The Embrace,” as a “masturbatory metal homage to my legendary family members” and an insult to Black people everywhere.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://lsa.umich.edu/ac/people/faculty/kah.html">a scholar</a> of visual culture, public memorials and race, I know these reactions to a new monument are not uncommon.</p>
<p>In fact, outrage is the common response. </p>
<h2>Shattering the idea of a conventional memorial</h2>
<p>“The Embrace” is unusual and was unveiled at a time of intense national debate about the public memorials of white men and the dismal histories of representing Black people and women. </p>
<p>Across the U.S., Confederate monuments and statues of Christopher Columbus and Teddy Roosevelt have been passionately defended – and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/23/970610428/nearly-100-confederate-monuments-removed-in-2020-report-says-more-than-700-remai">have come tumbling down</a> over the past 10 years.</p>
<p>This sculpture is both abstract and carefully detailed – the buttons on his coat and her jewelry are clearly articulated in bronze. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A Black man is embracing a Black woman as both of them are smiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517048/original/file-20230322-2304-nf6b9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517048/original/file-20230322-2304-nf6b9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517048/original/file-20230322-2304-nf6b9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517048/original/file-20230322-2304-nf6b9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517048/original/file-20230322-2304-nf6b9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1123&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517048/original/file-20230322-2304-nf6b9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1123&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517048/original/file-20230322-2304-nf6b9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1123&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Martin Luther King Jr. hugs his wife, Coretta, after he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1964.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dr-martin-luther-king-jr-hugs-his-wife-coretta-during-a-news-photo/517330412?adppopup=true">Bettmann/GettyImages</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of the critics complained that enormous floating arms of beloved civil rights leaders did a terrible disservice to the Kings.</p>
<p>One tweeter asked Thomas: “Why did you make it so complicated and confusing?”</p>
<p>Most memorials do their work with a few very familiar conventions – soldiers on horses, scantily clad buxom figures of liberty, and dignified men caught midstride, forever frozen in time. </p>
<p>“The Embrace” shattered those conventions – which partly explains the outrage. </p>
<p>In the past, the most respectful, most dignified way to represent a revered person was as fully dressed and standing tall.</p>
<p>“The Embrace” steps outside of memorial conventions, which is a particularly complicated thing to do when representing Black people and women. </p>
<p>Depicting Coretta Scott King without a whole body and without a face runs the risk of seeming to be part of a long practice of denying women the power and dignity of their male counterparts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man dressed in a dark suit is sitting on stairs made of stone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517040/original/file-20230322-14-9dq21n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517040/original/file-20230322-14-9dq21n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517040/original/file-20230322-14-9dq21n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517040/original/file-20230322-14-9dq21n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517040/original/file-20230322-14-9dq21n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517040/original/file-20230322-14-9dq21n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517040/original/file-20230322-14-9dq21n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hank Willis Thomas, the artist who created ‘The Embrace,’ in Boston on June 14, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hank-willis-thomas-the-artist-who-created-the-embrace-the-news-photo/1241421458?adppopup=true">Lane Turner/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most women found in public memorials are symbols of liberty, peace, justice – and at least partially naked. </p>
<p>They are beautiful and aspirational, and, most notably, not powerful actual people in the world. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://monumentlab.com/">Monument Lab</a>, a public art and history nonprofit group, there are 11 times more monuments to mermaids than congresswomen in the United States.</p>
<p>The history of representing Black men in the United States is equally disturbing.</p>
<p>Figures of them are all too rare, and when they do appear, they are generic soldiers or, more often, barechested and kneeling, nameless or enslaved. </p>
<p>The artistic choice to depict Martin Luther King Jr. without a face, without an intact body, without the dignity of a straight back, runs the risk of robbing him of the power he risked to carve out nonviolent protests in a racially hostile country.</p>
<p>An artist of Thomas’ caliber and experience knows he is taking those risks, and does so intentionally.</p>
<h2>Initial reactions change over time</h2>
<p>Some of the most beloved public art has been met with calls for a wrecking ball. </p>
<p>Lots of folks, for example, were very upset when the Vietnam Veterans Memorial was unveiled in 1982. One critic called the monument a “<a href="https://magazine.art21.org/2017/03/15/the-black-gash-of-shame-revisiting-the-vietnam-veterans-memorial-controversy/#foot-04">black gash of shame</a>.”</p>
<p>“It is an unfortunate choice of memorial,” the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3108969">New Republic wrote</a> at the time. “Memorials are built to give context and, possibly, meaning to suffering that is otherwise incomprehensible. … To treat the Vietnam dead like the victims of some monstrous traffic accident is more than a disservice to history; it is a disservice to the memory of the 57,000.”</p>
<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Maya-Lin">Maya Lin</a>, the memorial <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/kidspost/2022/11/08/vietnam-veterans-memorial-40-years/">has now become</a> one of the most cherished pieces of public art in the U.S.</p>
<p>Even the Eiffel Tower <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/Books/chapter-and-verse/2015/1120/How-the-Eiffel-Tower-outlasted-its-critics">was considered an eyesore</a> by high-minded Paris art critics, some of whom described it as no more than a railroad bridge turned on its side when it was finished in 1889.</p>
<p>Willis is no stranger to criticisms. In fact, he embraces it.</p>
<p>“My belief,” he told Time magazine in a <a href="https://time.com/6249068/martin-luther-king-sculpture-hank-willis-thomas-interview/">January 2023 interview</a> “is artists learn through critique. There’s things that we love that over time we get tired of, and there’s things that we’re not quite sure about at the beginning, but over time, we love.”</p>
<p>Such was the case in Philadelphia in 2017, when he unveiled his 8-foot-tall, 800-pound sculpture of an Afro pick topped with a clenched-fist, Black Power salute. </p>
<p>Officially called “<a href="https://monumentlab.com/projects/hank-willis-thomas-all-power-to-all-people">All Power to All People</a>,” the statue rests near Philadelphia City Hall on Thomas Paine Plaza and received initial rebukes but eventual praise.</p>
<h2>Public art that has something to say</h2>
<p>But one crucial idea is missing from most of the criticisms of “The Embrace.”</p>
<p>In my view, memorials and monuments are not actually made to mark a shared history or to maintain the status quo, as some have argued. It’s my belief that the people who build and design them have a point they want to make in the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A statue of arms and hands has a space underneath where visitors can walk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514297/original/file-20230308-28-ewpuxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514297/original/file-20230308-28-ewpuxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514297/original/file-20230308-28-ewpuxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514297/original/file-20230308-28-ewpuxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514297/original/file-20230308-28-ewpuxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514297/original/file-20230308-28-ewpuxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514297/original/file-20230308-28-ewpuxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Another view of ‘The Embrace’ shows the space underneath the statue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/embrace-the-dr-martin-luther-king-jr-memorial-sculpture-at-news-photo/1246205254?adppopup=true">Craig F. Walker/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://encyclopediavirginia.org/entries/united-daughters-of-the-confederacy/">United Daughters of the Confederacy</a> had a vision in 1890 when it unveiled the sculpture of Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee riding atop his horse Traveller in Richmond, Virginia. </p>
<p>And Thomas had his vision for “The Embrace.” </p>
<p>The magic of memorials and monuments is that they seem natural and eternal in our landscape but they are neither.</p>
<p>What Thomas does in “The Embrace” is ask us to see the Kings, simply yet powerfully, in a new light.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristin Ann Hass does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A memorial to Coretta Scott and Martin Luther King Jr. has received stinging criticisms, but time will tell whether ‘The Embrace’ will endure as a cherished work of public art.Kristin Ann Hass, Professor of American Culture, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455182021-01-28T18:15:37Z2021-01-28T18:15:37ZTrump wasn’t the first president to try to politicize the civil service – which remains at risk of returning to Jackson’s ‘spoils system’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381160/original/file-20210128-19-bzgg9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C120%2C5622%2C3707&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump put a portrait of Andrew Jackson in the Oval Office when he was president. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-speaks-during-an-event-with-members-news-photo/880468366">Oliver Contreras-Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s core civilian workforce has long been <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001540761">known for its professionalism</a>. About <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43590.pdf">2.1 million nonpartisan career officials</a> provide essential public services in such diverse areas as agriculture, national parks, defense, homeland security, environmental protection and veterans’ affairs. </p>
<p>To get the vast majority of these “competitive service” jobs – which are protected from easy firing – federal employees must <a href="https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/classification-qualifications/classifying-general-schedule-positions/">demonstrate achievement in job-specific knowledge, skills and abilities superior to other applicants</a> and, in some cases, pass an exam. In other words, the civil service is designed to be “<a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/10/why-merit-matters/169657/">merit-based</a>.”</p>
<p>It wasn’t always so. </p>
<p>From Andrew Jackson until Theodore Roosevelt, much of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/11.1.172">federal workforce was subject to change after every presidential election</a> – and often did. Known as the spoils system, this pattern of political patronage, in which officeholders award allies with jobs in return for support, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1893171">began to end</a> in the late 19th century as citizens and politicians like Roosevelt grew fed up with its <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1845445">corruption, incompetence and inefficiency</a> – and its role in the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/the-federal-civil-service-and-the-death-of-president-james-a-garfield.htm">assassination of a president</a>.</p>
<p>Less than two weeks before Election Day, former President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/10/stunning-executive-order-would-politicize-civil-service/169479/">signed an executive order that threatened</a> to return the U.S. to a spoils system in which a large share of the federal government’s workforce could be fired for little or no reason – including a perceived lack of loyalty to the president.</p>
<p>While President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/22/executive-order-protecting-the-federal-workforce/">quickly reversed the order</a> soon after taking office, the incident shows just how vulnerable the civil service is.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An old picture shows a crowd of people in front of the White House in 1829." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C39%2C941%2C633&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People seeking government jobs crashed the White House on the day of Andrew Jackson’s inauguration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://picryl.com/media/presidents-levee-or-all-creation-going-to-the-white-house-robert-cruikshank-1">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Birth of the spoils system</h2>
<p>The government of the early republic <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/the-early-federal-workforce-by-p-kastor.pdf?utm_campaign=Brookings%20Executive%20Education&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email">was small</a>, but the issue of whether civil servants should be chosen on the basis of patronage or skills was hotly debated. </p>
<p>Although George Washington and the five presidents who followed him <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/11.1.172">certainly employed patronage</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=_j_YiYda81AC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_atb#v=onepage&q&f=false">they emphasized merit</a> when making appointments. </p>
<p>Washington wrote that relying on one’s personal relationship to the applicant <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/634173">would constitute</a> “an absolute bar to preferment” and wanted those “as in my judgment shall be the best qualified to discharge the functions of the departments to which they shall be appointed.” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/11.1.172">He would not even appoint</a> his own soldiers to government positions if they lacked the necessary qualifications.</p>
<p>That changed in 1829 when Andrew Jackson, the seventh president, entered the White House.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of Andrew Jackson riding a horse on a statue with the words, 'To the victors belong the spoils,' while several men seeking jobs bow down to him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Political cartoon by Thomas Nast depicts office seekers seeking jobs from Andrew Jackson.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/political-cartoon-by-thomas-nast-with-the-caption-cant-you-news-photo/96743647">Fotosearch/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jackson came to office <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">as a reformer</a> with a promise to end the dominance of elites and what he considered their corrupt policies. He believed that popular access to government jobs – and their frequent turnover through a four-year “<a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">rotation in office</a>” – could serve ideals of democratic participation, regardless of one’s qualifications for a position.</p>
<p>As a result, at his inaugural reception on March 4, a <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/112695/american-lion-by-jon-meacham/">huge crowd of office seekers crashed</a> the reception. Jackson was “besieged by applicants” and “battalions of hopefuls,” <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/17600/andrew-jackson-by-hw-brands/">all seeking government jobs</a>.</p>
<p>Instead of preventing corruption from taking root, Jackson’s <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Jacksonians/2V9_twEACAAJ?hl=en">rotation policy became an opportunity for patronage</a> – or rewarding supporters with the spoils of victory. He <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">defended the practice</a> by declaring: “If my personal friends are qualified and patriotic, why should I not be permitted to bestow a few offices on them?” </p>
<p>Besides possessing a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1845445">lack of appropriate skills and commitment</a>, office seekers <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1845445">were expected to pay “assessments”</a> – a percentage of their salary ranging from 2% to 7% – to the party that appointed them.</p>
<p>Although Jackson <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">replaced only about 10%</a> of the federal workforce and 41% of presidential appointments, the practice increasingly <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Civil_Service_and_the_Patronage/URJPPqndZGYC?hl=en">became the norm</a> as subsequent presidents fired as well as refused to reappoint ever-larger shares of the government. </p>
<p><iframe id="kIe1G" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kIe1G/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The peak of the spoils system came under James Buchanan, who served from 1857 to 1861. He <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">replaced</a> <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001540761">virtually every federal worker at the end of their “rotation.”</a> William L. Marcy, who was secretary of state under Buchanan’s predecessor and was the first to refer to patronage as “spoils,” <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/jacksonians-a-study-in-administrative-history-1829-1861/oclc/498178">wrote in 1857</a> that civil servants from his administration were being “hunted down like wild beasts.”</p>
<p>Even Abraham Lincoln, who followed Buchanan, made extensive use of the system,
<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Civil_Service_and_the_Patronage/URJPPqndZGYC?hl=en">replacing at least 1,457 of the 1,639 officials</a> then subject to presidential appointment. The number would have been higher but for the secession of Southern states, which put some federal officials out of his reach.</p>
<h2>A ‘vast public evil’ comes to an end</h2>
<p>The tide began to turn in the late 1860s following <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">public revelations</a> that positions had been created requiring little or no work and other abuses, including <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/jacksonians-a-study-in-administrative-history-1829-1861/oclc/498178">illiterate appointees</a>, and a <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">congressional report about the success</a> of civil service systems in Great Britain, China, France and Prussia. </p>
<p>In 1870, President Ulysses S. Grant asked Congress to take action, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">complaining,</a> “The present system does not secure the best men, and often not even fit men, for public place.” Congress responded with legislation that authorized the president to use executive orders to prescribe regulations for the civil service. That power exists today, most recently exercised in Trump’s own order. </p>
<p>Grant established a Civil Service Commission that led to some reforms, but just two years later a <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">hostile Congress cut off new funding</a>, and Grant terminated the experiment in March 1875. The number of jobs potentially open to patronage continued to soar, <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1975/compendia/hist_stats_colonial-1970.html">doubling from 51,020 in 1871 to 100,020 in 1881</a>.</p>
<p>But across the U.S., <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/3x">citizens were becoming disgusted</a> by a government stuffed with the people known as “spoilsmen,” leading to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00003">growing reform movement</a>. The assassination of President James Garfield in 1881 <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/the-federal-civil-service-and-the-death-of-president-james-a-garfield.htm">by a deranged office seeker</a> who felt Garfield had denied him the Paris diplomatic post he wanted pushed the movement over the edge.</p>
<p>Garfield’s murder <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1893171">was widely blamed</a> on the spoils system. George William Curtis, editor of Harper’s Weekly and an advocate for reform, published cartoons <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=_j_YiYda81AC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_atb#v=onepage&q&f=false">lambasting the system</a> and called it “a vast public evil.” </p>
<p>In early 1883, immediately after an election that led to sweeping gains for politicians in favor of reform, <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001540761">Congress passed the Pendleton Act</a>. It created the civil service system of merit-based selection and promotion. The act banned “assessments,” implemented competitive exams and open competitions for jobs, and prevented civil servants from being fired for political reasons. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Donald Trump stands in front of a painting of former President Teddy Roosevelt in the White House." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teddy Roosevelt helped end the spoils system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Trump/67fe2946462340c7a4a99409d94f295d/photo?hpSectionId=879083fa405d449fa332cbf742e7d609&st=hpsection&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=69&Query=teddy%20AND%20roosevelt&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Roosevelt was appointed to the new commission that oversaw the system by President Benjamin Harrison in 1889 and quickly <a href="https://www.opm.gov/about-us/our-mission-role-history/theodore-roosevelt/">became its driving force</a> – even as Harrison himself abused the spoils system, <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/series/american-presidency-series/978-0-7006-0320-6.html">replacing 43,823 out of 58,623 postmasters</a>, for example.</p>
<p>At first, the system <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/5x">covered just 10.5% of the federal workforce</a>, but it was gradually expanded to cover most workers. Under Roosevelt, who became president in 1901 after William McKinley was assassinated, the number of covered employees <a href="https://www.opm.gov/about-us/our-mission-role-history/theodore-roosevelt/">finally exceeded those not covered</a> in 1904 and soon reached <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/5x">almost two-thirds of all federal jobs</a>. At its peak in the 1950s, the competitive civil service <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/5x">covered almost 90% of federal employees</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>New York, where Roosevelt was an assemblyman, and Massachusetts were the first states to implement their own civil service systems. Although all states now have such systems in place at local, state or both levels, it was not until <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000256">after 1940 that most states adopted a competitive civil service</a>. </p>
<h2>Teddy’s unfinished work</h2>
<p>Trump’s <a href="https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3896676/posts">Oct. 21 executive order</a> would have undone over a century of reforms by stripping potentially hundreds of thousands of civil servants of the protections that keep them from being summarily fired for political reasons. Insufficient loyalty to the president would be enough to lose one’s job. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/22/executive-order-protecting-the-federal-workforce">Biden revoked the changes</a> two days after taking office, but the episode is a reminder just how fragile the system supporting a merit-based government workforce remains. </p>
<p>While Trump’s effort to meddle in the civil service was particularly brazen, administrations of both parties still have a habit of doing so. For example, a common practice of outgoing administrations – including Trump’s – is to convert political appointees into permanent and protected civil servants in a process known as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/06/some-trump-officials-are-burrowing-into-government-jobs-what-does-that-mean-exactly/">burrowing</a>.” Whether an effort to plant people who can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-trump-burrowing-federal/2021/01/24/a495ae76-5c02-11eb-b8bd-ee36b1cd18bf_story.html">carry on a previous administration’s policies</a> or simply meant as a patronage reward, such appointees can be very hard for the incoming one to remove. </p>
<p>Both Trump’s executive order and the bipartisan practice of burrowing show the civil service needs stronger protections and that Teddy Roosevelt’s work is still unfinished. If, on a whim, a president can undo over a century of reforms, then the civil service remains insufficiently insulated from politics and patronage. </p>
<p>It may be time Congress passed a new law that permanently shields one of America’s proudest achievements from becoming another dysfunctional part of the U.S. government. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-revived-andrew-jacksons-spoils-system-which-would-undo-americas-138-year-old-professional-civil-service-150039">article originally published</a> on Jan. 21, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry M. Mitnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For decades, presidents beginning with Andrew Jackson routinely replaced large swaths of the government workforce, often requiring them to pay fees to political parties in exchange for their jobs.Barry M. Mitnick, Professor of Business Administration and of Public and International Affairs, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1500392021-01-21T13:14:22Z2021-01-21T13:14:22ZTrump revived Andrew Jackson’s spoils system, which would undo America’s 138-year-old professional civil service<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379567/original/file-20210119-15-1ix1ga6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=85%2C183%2C2900%2C1790&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A picture of Andrew Jackson hung in the Oval Office during Trump's tenure.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Trump/9e764f20ddfc448faca0727a96481f80/photo?hpSectionId=879083fa405d449fa332cbf742e7d609&st=hpsection&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=6008&Query=%22Donald%20Trump%22%20AND%20%22Oval%20Office%22&currentItemNo=28">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s core civilian workforce has long been <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001540761">known for its professionalism</a>. About <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43590.pdf">2.1 million nonpartisan career officials</a> provide essential public services in such diverse areas as agriculture, national parks, defense, homeland security, environmental protection and veterans affairs. </p>
<p>To get the vast majority of these “competitive service” jobs – which are protected from easy firing – federal employees must <a href="https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/classification-qualifications/classifying-general-schedule-positions/">demonstrate achievement in job-specific knowledge, skills and abilities superior to other applicants</a> and, in some cases, pass an exam. In other words, the civil service is designed to be “<a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/10/why-merit-matters/169657/">merit-based</a>.”</p>
<p>It wasn’t always so. </p>
<p>From Andrew Jackson until Theodore Roosevelt, much of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/11.1.172">federal workforce was subject to change after every presidential election</a> – and often did. Known as the spoils system, this pattern of political patronage, in which officeholders award allies with jobs in return for support, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1893171">began to end</a> in the late 19th century as citizens and politicians like Roosevelt grew fed up with its <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1845445">corruption, incompetence and inefficiency</a> – and its role in the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/the-federal-civil-service-and-the-death-of-president-james-a-garfield.htm">assassination of a president</a>.</p>
<p>Less than two weeks before Election Day, Donald Trump <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/10/stunning-executive-order-would-politicize-civil-service/169479/">signed an executive order that threatens</a> to return the U.S. to a spoils system in which a large share of the federal government’s workforce could be fired for little or no reason – including a perceived lack of loyalty to the president.</p>
<p>While President Joe Biden appears <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-trump-federal-employees/2020/11/10/5a1c9f42-2388-11eb-8599-406466ad1b8e_story.html">likely to reverse the order</a>, its effects may not be so easily undone. And he may have his own reasons for keeping it temporarily in place. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An old picture shows a crowd of people in front of the White House in 1829." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C39%2C941%2C633&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375959/original/file-20201218-17-14hpknu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People seeking government jobs crashed the White House on the day of Andrew Jackson’s inauguration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://picryl.com/media/presidents-levee-or-all-creation-going-to-the-white-house-robert-cruikshank-1">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Birth of the spoils system</h2>
<p>The government of the early republic <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/the-early-federal-workforce-by-p-kastor.pdf?utm_campaign=Brookings%20Executive%20Education&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email">was small</a>, but the issue of whether civil servants should be chosen on the basis of patronage or skills was hotly debated. </p>
<p>Although George Washington and the five presidents who followed him <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/11.1.172">certainly employed patronage</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=_j_YiYda81AC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_atb#v=onepage&q&f=false">they emphasized merit</a> when making appointments. </p>
<p>Washington wrote that relying on one’s personal relationship to the applicant <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/634173">would constitute</a> “an absolute bar to preferment” and wanted those “as in my judgment shall be the best qualified to discharge the functions of the departments to which they shall be appointed.” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/11.1.172">He would not even appoint</a> his own soldiers to government positions if they lacked the necessary qualifications.</p>
<p>That changed in 1829 when Andrew Jackson, the seventh president, entered the White House.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of Andrew Jackson riding a horse on a statue with the words, 'To the victors belong the spoils,' while several men seeking jobs bow down to him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379832/original/file-20210120-21-1cnf97x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Political cartoon by Thomas Nast depicts office seekers seeking jobs from Andrew Jackson.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/political-cartoon-by-thomas-nast-with-the-caption-cant-you-news-photo/96743647">Fotosearch/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jackson came to office <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">as a reformer</a> with a promise to end the dominance of elites and what he considered their corrupt policies. He believed that popular access to government jobs – and their frequent turnover through a four-year “<a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">rotation in office</a>” – could serve ideals of democratic participation, regardless of one’s qualifications for a position.</p>
<p>As a result, at his inaugural reception on March 4, a <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/112695/american-lion-by-jon-meacham/">huge crowd of office seekers crashed</a> the reception. Jackson was “besieged by applicants” and “battalions of hopefuls,” <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/17600/andrew-jackson-by-hw-brands/">all seeking government jobs</a>.</p>
<p>Instead of preventing corruption from taking root, Jackson’s <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Jacksonians/2V9_twEACAAJ?hl=en">rotation policy became an opportunity for patronage</a> – or rewarding supporters with the spoils of victory. He <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">defended the practice</a> by declaring: “If my personal friends are qualified and patriotic, why should I not be permitted to bestow a few offices on them?” </p>
<p>Besides possessing a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1845445">lack of appropriate skills and commitment</a>, office seekers <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1845445">were expected to pay “assessments”</a> – a percentage of their salary ranging from 2% to 7% – to the party that appointed them.</p>
<p>Although Jackson <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/andrew-jackson-0">replaced only about 10%</a> of the federal workforce and 41% of presidential appointments, the practice increasingly <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Civil_Service_and_the_Patronage/URJPPqndZGYC?hl=en">became the norm</a> as subsequent presidents fired as well as refused to reappoint ever-larger shares of the government. </p>
<p><iframe id="kIe1G" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kIe1G/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The peak of the spoils system came under James Buchanan, who served from 1857 to 1861. He <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">replaced</a> <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001540761">virtually every federal worker at the end of their “rotation.”</a> William L. Marcy, who was secretary of state under Buchanan’s predecessor and was the first to refer to patronage as “spoils,” <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/jacksonians-a-study-in-administrative-history-1829-1861/oclc/498178">wrote in 1857</a> that civil servants from his administration were being “hunted down like wild beasts.”</p>
<p>Even Abraham Lincoln, who followed Buchanan, made extensive use of the system,
<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Civil_Service_and_the_Patronage/URJPPqndZGYC?hl=en">replacing at least 1,457 of the 1,639 officials</a> then subject to presidential appointment. The number would have been higher but for the secession of Southern states, which put some federal officials out of his reach.</p>
<h2>A ‘vast public evil’ comes to an end</h2>
<p>The tide began to turn in the late 1860s following <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">public revelations</a> that positions had been created requiring little or no work and other abuses, including <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/jacksonians-a-study-in-administrative-history-1829-1861/oclc/498178">illiterate appointees</a>, and a <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">congressional report about the success</a> of civil service systems in Great Britain, China, France and Prussia. </p>
<p>In 1870, President Ulysses S. Grant asked Congress to take action, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">complaining,</a> “The present system does not secure the best men, and often not even fit men, for public place.” Congress responded with legislation that authorized the president to use executive orders to prescribe regulations for the civil service. That power exists today, most recently exercised in Trump’s own order. </p>
<p>Grant established a Civil Service Commission that led to some reforms, but just two years later a <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/History_of_the_Federal_Civil_Service_178.html?id=dwbvhZnJT9sC">hostile Congress cut off new funding</a>, and Grant terminated the experiment in March 1875. The number of jobs potentially open to patronage continued to soar, <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1975/compendia/hist_stats_colonial-1970.html">doubling from 51,020 in 1871 to 100,020 in 1881</a>.</p>
<p>But across the U.S., <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/3x">citizens were becoming disgusted</a> by a government stuffed with the people known as “spoilsmen,” leading to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00003">growing reform movement</a>. The assassination of President James Garfield in 1881 <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/the-federal-civil-service-and-the-death-of-president-james-a-garfield.htm">by a deranged office seeker</a> who felt Garfield had denied him the Paris diplomatic post he wanted pushed the movement over the edge.</p>
<p>Garfield’s murder <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1893171">was widely blamed</a> on the spoils system. George William Curtis, editor of Harper’s Weekly and an advocate for reform, published cartoons <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=_j_YiYda81AC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_atb#v=onepage&q&f=false">lambasting the system</a> and called it “a vast public evil.” </p>
<p>In early 1883, immediately after an election that led to sweeping gains for politicians in favor of reform, <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001540761">Congress passed the Pendleton Act</a>. It created the Civil Service System of merit-based selection and promotion. The act banned “assessments,” implemented competitive exams and open competitions for jobs, and prevented civil servants from being fired for political reasons. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Donald Trump stands in front of a painting of former President Teddy Roosevelt in the White House." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379569/original/file-20210119-15-1craue6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teddy Roosevelt helped end the spoils system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Trump/67fe2946462340c7a4a99409d94f295d/photo?hpSectionId=879083fa405d449fa332cbf742e7d609&st=hpsection&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=69&Query=teddy%20AND%20roosevelt&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Roosevelt was appointed to the new commission that oversaw the system by President Benjamin Harrison in 1889 and quickly <a href="https://www.opm.gov/about-us/our-mission-role-history/theodore-roosevelt/">became its driving force</a> – even as Harrison himself abused the spoils system, <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/series/american-presidency-series/978-0-7006-0320-6.html">replacing 43,823 out of 58,623 postmasters</a>, for example.</p>
<p>At first, the system <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/5x">covered just 10.5% of the federal workforce</a>, but it was gradually expanded to cover most workers. Under Roosevelt, who became president in 1901 after William McKinley was assassinated, the number of covered employees <a href="https://www.opm.gov/about-us/our-mission-role-history/theodore-roosevelt/">finally exceeded those not covered</a> in 1904 and soon reached <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/5x">almost two-thirds of all federal jobs</a>. At its peak in the 1950s, the competitive civil service <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00024784/00001/5x">covered almost 90% of federal employees</a>.</p>
<p>New York, where Roosevelt was an assemblyman, and Massachusetts were the first states to implement their own civil service systems. Although all states now have such systems in place at local, state or both levels, it was not until <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000256">after 1940 that most states adopted a competitive civil service</a>. </p>
<h2>A return to the spoils?</h2>
<p>Trump’s executive order would mark a significant change. </p>
<p>The Oct. 21 order <a href="https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3896676/posts">created a new category of the civil service workforce</a>, known as “Schedule F,” which would include all currently protected employees in career positions that have a “confidential, policy-determining, policy-making or policy-advocating character.” Because the language is both vague and encompassing, it may apply to as many as hundreds of thousands of the 2.1 million federal civilian workers – potentially to every worker who has any discretion in giving advice or making decisions. </p>
<p>The first agency to report a list of covered workers, the Office of Management and Budget, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-moves-to-strip-job-protections-from-white-house-budget-analysts-as-he-races-to-transform-civil-service/2020/11/27/d04f6eba-2e69-11eb-96c2-aac3f162215d_story.html">identified 425 professionals</a> – 88% of its employees – as transferable to Schedule F, which means <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/10/stunning-executive-order-would-politicize-civil-service/169479/">they could be fired at will</a>.</p>
<p>Although the order didn’t formally take effect until Jan. 19, some agencies had already taken actions consistent with it – including an apparent “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-white-house-purge/2020/11/13/2af12c94-25ca-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html">purge</a>” of career employees deemed insufficiently loyal to Trump. But the Trump administration was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-civil-service-biden/2021/01/18/5daf34c4-59b3-11eb-b8bd-ee36b1cd18bf_story.html">unable to fully implement Schedule F</a> before Biden took over on Jan. 20.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden wave as they arrive at the North Portico of the White House on Jan. 20." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379828/original/file-20210120-17-asygph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379828/original/file-20210120-17-asygph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379828/original/file-20210120-17-asygph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379828/original/file-20210120-17-asygph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379828/original/file-20210120-17-asygph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379828/original/file-20210120-17-asygph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379828/original/file-20210120-17-asygph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will Biden make reversing the Trump order one of his early acts of office?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXBidenInauguration/cea5f292cf324cdb87b2f67782507b18/photo?hpSectionId=8eeed13412704a308764ffb384c901fd&st=hpsection&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=4539&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, Biden could quickly reverse the order – and <a href="https://fitzpatrick.house.gov/2021/1/fitzpatrick-connolly-introduce-the-preventing-a-patronage-system-act">there’s already a bipartisan push to forbid these transfers</a> – but rehiring anyone who has been fired won’t be easy or immediate. </p>
<p>Furthermore, Trump had <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/how-dozens-of-trumps-political-appointees-will-stay-in-government-after-biden-takes-over">tried to “burrow” political appointees deep into the senior executive service</a>, the top level of the civil service. The burrowing included the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/17/us/politics/nsa-michael-ellis-trump.html">controversial appointment</a> of Michael Ellis as general counsel of the National Security Agency. Senior executive service rules permit some political appointees to be converted to civil servants. This could protect them from easily being removed by Biden.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Biden may want to remove civil servants considered Trump loyalists who may try to subvert his policies. If so, he’ll <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2021/01/dont-expect-trumps-workforce-policies-be-reversed-overnight/171488/">have to keep the executive order in place to expedite the process</a> and convert those employees to the new Schedule F classification, which would allow him to remove them. But keeping and using Schedule F, even for a relatively brief period, challenges the most fundamental principles of the civil service.</p>
<p>Trump’s order and Biden’s dilemma show that Teddy Roosevelt’s work is still unfinished. If, on a whim, a president can undo over a century of reforms, then the civil service remains insufficiently insulated from politics and patronage. It may be time Congress passed a new law that permanently shields one of America’s proudest achievements from becoming another dysfunctional part of the U.S. government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150039/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry M. Mitnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For decades, presidents routinely replaced large swaths of the government workforce, often requiring them to pay fees to political parties in exchange for their jobs.Barry M. Mitnick, Professor of Business Administration and of Public and International Affairs, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1497082020-11-16T13:23:26Z2020-11-16T13:23:26ZTrump 2024? Presidential comebacks have mixed success<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369340/original/file-20201113-13-rswdz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=120%2C551%2C4345%2C3276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are already reports that Trump is mulling a run in 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-president-donald-trump-cheer-and-hold-a-shirt-news-photo/1201954048?adppopup=true">Caitlin O'Hara/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>American author F. Scott Fitzgerald <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2012/feb/05/scott-fitzgerald-gatsby-mccrum">once wrote</a> that “there are no second acts in American lives.”</p>
<p>Yet it’s already assumed Donald Trump will go on to a next act in one form or another. </p>
<p>Will he start <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-planning-media-channel-rival-fox-news-axios-2020-11">his own media company</a>? Serve as <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/11/10/trump-planning-to-form-pac-remain-in-politics-as-gop-kingmaker/">a GOP kingmaker</a>? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/us/politics/trump-future.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share">There are even rumblings</a> that he will decide <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-ronna-mcdaniel-rnc-2024-run-1546815">to run again for president in 2024</a>. Having served only one term, he is constitutionally eligible to try for another. </p>
<p>If he does decide to run again – and if he wins – he’ll be in rare company.</p>
<p>Only one American president has lost reelection and then won back his office: Grover Cleveland. In the American elections course that I teach, students learn details about the long-term political impacts of these comeback efforts, most of which are exercises in futility.</p>
<h2>‘Gone to the White House, ha ha ha’</h2>
<p>The late 19th-century political environment resembled today’s in many ways: tight polarized elections, strong regional patterns in national voting, relatively high voter turnout and negative campaigning.</p>
<p>Cleveland, a Democrat, had been governor of New York for less than two years when his party nominated him for president in 1884. As governor, he had gained a reputation for fighting <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/cleveland">Tammany Hall corruption</a> in New York City.</p>
<p>During the 1884 campaign, in which Cleveland ran against Republican James Blaine, a scandal erupted when a New York woman named Maria Halpin <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/president-clevelands-problem-child-100800/">accused Cleveland</a> of raping and impregnating her. She was eventually institutionalized and forced to give up her child for adoption. Cleveland disputed some of the details of the story, and his supporters <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/president-clevelands-problem-child-100800/">countered jeers</a> of “Ma, ma, where’s my pa?” with chants of “Gone to the White House, ha ha ha.”</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A baby cries 'I want my pa!' in a political cartoon mocking Grover Cleveland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369342/original/file-20201113-19-9gi9ic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Grover Cleveland weathered attacks that he had fathered a child out of wedlock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/another-voice-for-cleveland-political-cartoon-featuring-u-s-news-photo/1177464462?adppopup=true">Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cleveland ended up winning the national popular vote <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1884_Election/">by a slim margin</a> – 48.85% to 48.28% – and won 219 electoral votes to Blaine’s 182. Cleveland’s base of support was in the South and in his home state of New York, while Blaine did well in the rest of the North. Voter turnout was high, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/voter-turnout-in-presidential-elections">estimated</a> at 77.5% of the voting-age population.</p>
<p>During Cleveland’s term, <a href="http://www.taxhistory.org/www/website.nsf/Web/THM1866?OpenDocument">tariffs became a divisive partisan issue</a> in American politics. Republicans favored higher tariffs to protect Northern manufacturing interests, while Democrats like Cleveland generally wanted lower tariffs to help the South’s agricultural export-oriented interests and to lower prices for consumers.</p>
<h2>Cleveland’s comeback</h2>
<p>When Cleveland ran for reelection in 1888, he faced off against Republican Benjamin Harrison. Cleveland again won the national popular vote by a tight margin, but lost two states – Indiana and New York – that he had won in 1884. It was enough to flip the <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1888_Election/">Electoral College</a> and allow Harrison to be elected president.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A campaign poster highlights the platform of Cleveland's reelection campaign." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369346/original/file-20201113-19-1cqzhfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Grover Cleveland ran on tariff reform in 1888 – and lost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-1888-campaign-poster-for-incumbent-president-grover-news-photo/640476369?adppopup=true">Library of Congress/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After losing the election, Cleveland returned to work as an attorney in New York. Under President Harrison, Congress approved the <a href="http://www.taxhistory.org/www/website.nsf/Web/THM1866?OpenDocument">McKinley Tariff and the Sherman Silver Purchase Act</a>, each of which were strongly opposed by Cleveland. </p>
<p>In 1891, after two years of avoiding the public spotlight, Cleveland again became <a href="https://elections.harpweek.com/1892/Overview-1892-2.htm">politically active</a> and started to vocally oppose the economic policies of Harrison. Cleveland attracted some national attention that year with a <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Letters_and_Addresses_of_Grover_Clevelan/010NAQAAIAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=%22grover+cleveland%22+silver+letter&pg=PA204&printsec=frontcover">public letter</a> indicating his continuing support for <a href="http://projects.vassar.edu/1896/currency.html">the gold standard</a>.</p>
<p>As Cleveland <a href="https://elections.harpweek.com/1892/Overview-1892-2.htm">met with party leaders</a> and made some public speeches in 1892, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/sn83030313/1891-02-13/ed-1/?q=Herald&sp=4&st=text">national Democratic support</a> for his presidential nomination began to grow. By the time the Democratic National Convention met in June that year, support for Cleveland had become <a href="https://elections.harpweek.com/1892/Overview-1892-2.htm">overwhelming</a>, and he secured the nomination.</p>
<p>With Populist Party candidate James B. Weaver on the ballot pulling votes from both major party presidential candidates, Cleveland won the national popular vote for the third straight election, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1892_Election/">this time besting Harrison by a 46% to 43% margin</a> and winning the Electoral College.</p>
<h2>Try, try again</h2>
<p>While Cleveland has, thus far, been the only U.S. president to lose reelection and then come back and win, other presidents have tried and failed. </p>
<p>In 1840, Democratic President Martin Van Buren lost reelection. He <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/vanburen/life-after-the-presidency">attempted</a> to be renominated by his party in 1844, but Democrats instead chose James Polk. By 1848, Van Buren joined with a group of disaffected Democrats and anti-slavery activists to become the nominee of the Free Soil Party, which opposed the extension of legal slavery to U.S. territories. While Van Buren <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1848">won 10%</a> of the national popular vote and finished second in New York, Massachusetts and Vermont, he won no Electoral College votes.</p>
<p>Van Buren is the only president other than Cleveland to be renominated by his party, lose reelection and then appear again on ballots as a presidential candidate. </p>
<p>Three other presidents also made attempted comebacks to regain the presidency after leaving office.</p>
<p>In 1852, President Millard Fillmore, who had ascended to the presidency after the death of Zachary Taylor, made a <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/fillmore/campaigns-and-elections">halfhearted attempt</a> to win the Whig Party nomination for a full term. When he failed, he came back four years later as the presidential candidate of the American Party, better known as the “<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/">Know Nothings</a>,” a political movement to restrict Catholic immigration to the United States. Fillmore won over 21% of the national popular vote, the second-best performance by a third-party presidential candidate in American history and <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1856">won Maryland’s electoral votes</a>.</p>
<p>The best performance by a third-party presidential candidate in American history was also by a former president, Theodore Roosevelt. In 1912, he ran for the Republican presidential nomination against his more conservative protege, President William Howard Taft. When Roosevelt <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1912-republican-convention-855607/">failed to get his party’s nomination</a> that year, he ran as the Progressive Party candidate.</p>
<p>After being <a href="https://www.history.com/news/shot-in-the-chest-100-years-ago-teddy-roosevelt-kept-on-talking">shot at a campaign rally</a> during the month before the election and surviving, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1912">Roosevelt got</a> 27% of the national popular vote and 88 electoral votes, finishing far ahead of Taft in both vote tallies – but well behind the winner, Woodrow Wilson.</p>
<p>The last American president to lose reelection and attempt to run for president again was Herbert Hoover, who was <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/23/hating-on-herbert-hoover">unsuccessful</a> in both 1936 and 1940 at persuading other Republicans to let him lead the party again after he lost in a landslide in 1932.</p>
<p>Richard Nixon made a different kind of political comeback. </p>
<p>He lost the presidential election of 1960 while serving as Dwight D. Eisenhower’s vice president and then <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-03-22-me-7477-story.html">went on to lose the 1962 California gubernatorial election</a>. After the two losses, Nixon famously told the press, “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2019/03/20/tricky-dick-nixon-series-episode-2-clip-2.cnn">You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore</a>.” But the press did get another whack at Nixon when he ran for president a second time – and won – <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1968_Election/">in 1968</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Nixon addresses the press after his 1962 loss." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369347/original/file-20201113-19-tl13fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369347/original/file-20201113-19-tl13fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369347/original/file-20201113-19-tl13fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369347/original/file-20201113-19-tl13fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369347/original/file-20201113-19-tl13fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369347/original/file-20201113-19-tl13fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369347/original/file-20201113-19-tl13fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After losing the 1962 California gubernatorial race, Nixon complained of his treatment by the press and hinted that he would retreat from public life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/defeated-gubernatorial-candidate-richard-nixon-speaks-at-a-news-photo/514683092?adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The last attempt at a political comeback by a defeated president was a very brief effort by Gerald Ford, who had lost reelection in 1976, to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/30/magazine/george-herbert-walker-bush-the-accidental-vice-president.html">negotiate</a> the possibility of being Ronald Reagan’s running mate during the 1980 Republican National Convention. The plan fell through, and Ford returned to private life.</p>
<p>Once out of office, most ex-presidents stay out of the spotlight and avoid criticizing their successor. Whether or not President Trump attempts a political comeback in 2024, it’s likely that he won’t stay mum over the next four years.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Speel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only one American president – Grover Cleveland – has lost reelection and then won back his office.Robert Speel, Associate Professor of Political Science, Erie campus, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1194232019-06-28T13:38:13Z2019-06-28T13:38:13ZFighting words for a New Gilded Age - Democratic candidates are sounding a lot like Teddy Roosevelt<p>There was a Republican on the Democratic Party debate stage – a Progressive Republican who sometimes liked to “speak softly, and carry a big stick.” Did you notice him?</p>
<p>“When I say that I am for the square deal,” <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/new-nationalism-speech/">said</a> the politician, “I mean not merely that I stand for fair play under the present rules of the game, but that I stand for having those rules changed so as to work for a more substantial equality of opportunity.”</p>
<p>You would be forgiven if you confused President Theodore Roosevelt’s 1910 speech for something said by one of the candidates running in the Democratic Party presidential primary in 2019. </p>
<p>Ours is the <a href="https://www.vox.com/first-person/2019/4/1/18286084/gilded-age-income-inequality-robber-baron">New Gilded Age</a> of ostentatious, unaccountable wealth and growing inequality, and current politicians sound a lot like their predecessors. The Gilded Age – the name given to the period after the Civil War to about 1900 – was characterized by massive industrialization and wealth accumulation in the hands of the few and at the expense of the many. “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/robber-baron">Robber barons</a>” like J.P. Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, Andrew W. Mellon and John D. Rockefeller controlled entire segments of the economy and were answerable to no one. Roosevelt sought to reign them in.</p>
<p>There are generational and policy differences between today’s Democratic candidates, but all 20 who made it onto the debate stage over two nights in Miami professed a Rooseveltian understanding of the ills facing the nation. </p>
<p>And – though no one used the term exactly – all promised Americans <a href="https://www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org/Learn-About-TR/TR-Encyclopedia/Politics%20and%20Government/The%20Square%20Deal">what Roosevelt promised the country</a>: a new “square deal.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Theodore Roosevelt in 1910.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.shutterstock.com%2Fgatekeeper%2FW3siZSI6MTU2MTc1MTA1MiwiYyI6Il9waG90b19zZXNzaW9uX2lkIiwiZGMiOiJpZGxfMjM5Mzk5MDIwIiwiayI6InBob3RvLzIzOTM5OTAyMC9odWdlLmpwZyIsIm0iOjEsImQiOiJzaHV0dGVyc3RvY2stbWVkaWEifSwib0FKVnl1eW9MOXF5MUVOTGNVcXJpTjdza1hjIl0%2Fshutterstock_239399020.jpg&pi=33421636&m=239399020&src=uZ5dNi2p4wz8FID7G6flOQ-1-1">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Control ‘the mighty commercial forces’</h2>
<p>According to Democrats, the ills of America today, like the ones in Roosevelt’s era, can be traced to unrestrained capitalism and corruption. </p>
<p>As Roosevelt said in 1910, <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/new-nationalism-speech/">“special interests” exerted a “sinister influence”</a> over the government. To fight corruption, he said, “the citizens of the United States must effectively control the mighty commercial forces which they have called into being.” </p>
<p>Roosevelt would take political power away from corporations because “there can be no effective control of corporations while their political activity remains.” Ending corruption would “be neither a short nor an easy task,” but, Roosevelt promised, “it can be done.”</p>
<p>And so he did. Roosevelt instituted regulations on corporations in order to balance the interests of the people with those of capitalism.</p>
<p>Roosevelt’s solutions to reining in abusive corporations should <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/full-transcript-first-democratic-primary-debate-2019-n1022816">sound familiar to those who watched the Democratic debates</a>: conserving natural resources, controlling corporations through regulations and protecting consumers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Gilded Age political cartoon, ‘The protectors of our industries,’ showing prominent industrialists sitting on the backs of workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/cph.3g03108/">Library of Congress; Bernhard Gillam, artist</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Echo chamber</h2>
<p>The Democratic candidates appear to share Roosevelt’s diagnosis of the problems facing the nation. </p>
<p>Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren opened the two-night debates with an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/27/transcript-night-one-first-democratic-debate-annotated/">echo of Roosevelt</a>. </p>
<p>“When you’ve got a government, when you’ve got an economy that does great for those with money and isn’t doing great for everyone else,” said Warren, “that is corruption, pure and simple. We need to call it out. We need to attack it head on. And we need to make structural change in our government, in our economy and in our country.” </p>
<p>Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders likewise opened the second night’s debate with a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/28/transcript-night-first-democratic-debate/">echo of Roosevelt</a>. </p>
<p>“We have three people in this country owning more wealth than the bottom half of America,” said Sanders, “while 500,000 people are sleeping out on the streets today. We think it is time for change, real change.” </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren at the first night’s debate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/1f580eeaa5d24900a76b458b2bcca5b7/9/0">AP/Wilfredo Lee</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/27/transcript-night-one-first-democratic-debate-annotated/">echoed Roosevelt</a>: “Right now, we have a system that favors those who can pay for access and outcomes. That’s how you explain an economy that is rigged to corporations and to the very wealthiest.” </p>
<p>New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/27/transcript-night-one-first-democratic-debate-annotated/">echoed Roosevelt</a>, “I think we have a serious problem in our country with corporate consolidation. And you see the evidence of that in how dignity is being stripped from labor, and we have people that work full-time jobs and still can’t make a living wage.” </p>
<p>Former Vice President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/28/transcript-night-first-democratic-debate/">echoed Roosevelt</a>, “Look, Donald Trump thinks Wall Street built America. Ordinary, middle-class Americans built America,” said Biden. “What I’m saying is that we’ve got to be straightforward. We have to make sure we understand that to return dignity to the middle class.” </p>
<p>California Sen. Kamala Harris <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/28/transcript-night-first-democratic-debate/">echoed Roosevelt</a>, “Working families need support and need to be lifted up. And frankly, this economy is not working for working people. For too long, the rules have been written in the favor of the people who have the most and not in favor of the people who work the most.” </p>
<p>Warren, Sanders, O'Rourke, Booker, Biden and Harris would all give Americans a new square deal.</p>
<p>Democrats like Biden blamed President Donald Trump for exacerbating the problems of the New Gilded Age with his <a href="https://publicintegrity.org/topics/business/taxes/trumps-tax-cuts/">tax cuts</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/tracking-deregulation-in-the-trump-era/">deregulation</a>. They accused him of putting profits over people. </p>
<p>Trump, for his part, has expressed admiration for the first Gilded Age.</p>
<p>In a March 25, 2016 interview with The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-transcript.html">New York Times</a> Trump said that at the turn of the 20th century, “that’s when we were a great, when we were really starting to go robust…there was a period of time when we were developing at the turn of the century which was a pretty wild time for this country and pretty wild in terms of building that machine, that machine was really based on entrepreneurship etc., etc.” </p>
<p>Trump hoped to make America “great,” just like the Gilded Age when the robber barons ruled.</p>
<h2>Tackling corruption</h2>
<p>Throughout the two debates, Democrats didn’t just echo Roosevelt in their diagnosis for what’s wrong with the nation, but they also echoed him on the solutions. </p>
<p>Candidate after candidate argued that the problems of the New Gilded Age will only get worse unless the nation restrains corruption and gives Americans a new square deal. </p>
<p>As Warren noted, “We’ve had the laws out there for a long time to be able to fight back. What’s been missing is courage, courage in Washington to take on the giants. That’s part of the corruption in this system.”</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Mercieca does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The problems facing America are unrestrained capitalism and corruption, said the Democratic presidential candidates over two nights of debates. Or was that really Teddy Roosevelt speaking?Jennifer Mercieca, Associate Professor of Communication, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1113312019-02-15T21:52:31Z2019-02-15T21:52:31ZA brief history of presidential lethargy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259333/original/file-20190215-56240-1qpg97p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A television set turned on in the West Wing of the White House.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/edde2492db3f4bcfb93a1ad4678a4376/12/0">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>No one doubts the job of president of the United States is stressful and demanding. The chief executive deserves downtime. </p>
<p>But how much is enough, and when is it too much? </p>
<p>These questions came into focus in 2019 after Axios <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oITCuVsYdhNXtY7GElLelsrbjRRIPJ1ce-_v-8J1X_A/edit#gid=0">released President Donald Trump’s schedule</a>. The hours blocked off for nebulous “executive time” seem, <a href="https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a26285493/trump-executive-time-schedule-tweets/">to many critics</a>, disproportionate to the number of scheduled working hours. </p>
<p>While Trump’s workdays may ultimately prove to be shorter than those of past presidents, he’s not the first to face criticism. For every president praised for his work ethic, there’s one disparaged for sleeping on the job. </p>
<h2>Teddy Roosevelt, locomotive president</h2>
<p>Before Theodore Roosevelt ascended to the presidency in 1901, the question of how hard a president toiled was of little concern to Americans. </p>
<p>Except in times of national crisis, his predecessors neither labored under the same expectations, nor faced the same level of popular scrutiny. Since the country’s founding, Congress had been the main engine for identifying national problems and outlining legislative solutions. Congressmen were generally more accessible to journalists than the president was. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259328/original/file-20190215-56215-1ija022.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259328/original/file-20190215-56215-1ija022.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=732&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259328/original/file-20190215-56215-1ija022.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=732&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259328/original/file-20190215-56215-1ija022.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=732&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259328/original/file-20190215-56215-1ija022.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=919&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259328/original/file-20190215-56215-1ija022.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=919&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259328/original/file-20190215-56215-1ija022.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=919&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teddy Roosevelt’s activist approach to governing shifted the public’s expectations for the president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9b/Theodore_Roosevelt_laughing.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But when <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=zZ4nAQAAMAAJ&q=Lewis+l+Gould+the+presidency+of+theodore+roosevelt&dq=Lewis+l+Gould+the+presidency+of+theodore+roosevelt&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiitYGe6rzgAhUn2oMKHb5cC_cQ6AEIKjAA">Roosevelt shifted the balance of power</a> from Congress to the White House, he created the expectation that an activist president, consumed by affairs of state, would work endlessly in the best interests of the people.</p>
<p>Roosevelt, <a href="https://www.americanheritage.com/theodore-roosevelt-president">whom Sen. Joseph Foraker called</a> a “steam engine in trousers,” personified the hard-working chief executive. He filled his days with official functions and unofficial gatherings. He asserted his personality on policy and stamped the presidency firmly on the nation’s consciousness.</p>
<h2>Taft had a tough act to follow</h2>
<p>His successor, William Howard Taft, suffered by comparison. While it’s fair to observe that nearly anyone would have looked like a slacker compared with Roosevelt, it didn’t help that Taft weighed 300 pounds, which his contemporaries equated with laziness. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259330/original/file-20190215-56243-f5gg7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259330/original/file-20190215-56243-f5gg7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259330/original/file-20190215-56243-f5gg7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259330/original/file-20190215-56243-f5gg7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259330/original/file-20190215-56243-f5gg7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259330/original/file-20190215-56243-f5gg7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259330/original/file-20190215-56243-f5gg7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taft’s girth only added to the perception that he lacked Roosevelt’s vigor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.loc.gov/service/pnp/cph/3c10000/3c19000/3c19100/3c19192v.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Taft helped neither his cause nor his image when he snored through meetings, at evening entertainments and, as author Jeffrey Rosen noted, “even while standing at public events.” Watching Taft’s eyelids close, Sen. James Watson <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=Ewo5DwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Jeffrey+Rosen+William+Howard+Taft&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3i_fu6bzgAhUIw4MKHYX5C7gQ6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=Jeffrey%20Rosen%20William%20Howard%20Taft&f=false">said to him</a>, “Mr. President, you are the largest audience I ever put entirely to sleep.” </p>
<p>An early biographer <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=1RZ3AAAAMAAJ&q=Paolo+Coletta+Presidency+of+William+Howard+Taft&dq=Paolo+Coletta+Presidency+of+William+Howard+Taft&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi409fL6bzgAhVH5IMKHR_0AqIQ6AEIKjAA">called Taft</a> “slow-moving, easy-going if not lazy” with “a placid nature.” Others have suggested that Taft’s obesity caused sleep apnea and daytime drowsiness, a finding not inconsistent with <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=Q1pnPgAACAAJ&dq=The+William+Howard+Taft+Presidency+Lewis+Gould&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiXneKoh7zgAhXLhOAKHe-CAssQ6AEIKjAA">historian Lewis L. Gould’s conclusion</a> that Taft was capable of work “at an intense pace” and “a high rate of efficiency.” </p>
<p>It seems that Taft could work quickly, but in short bursts.</p>
<h2>Coolidge the snoozer</h2>
<p>Other presidents were more intentional about their daytime sleeping. Calvin Coolidge’s penchant for hourlong naps after lunch earned him amused scorn from contemporaries. But when he missed his nap, he fell asleep at afternoon meetings. He even napped on vacation. Tourists stared in amazement as the president, blissfully unaware, swayed in a hammock on his front porch in Vermont.</p>
<p>This, for many Republicans, wasn’t a problem: The Republican Party of the 1920s was averse to an activist federal government, so the fact that Coolidge wasn’t seen as a hard-charging, incessantly busy president was fine.</p>
<p>Biographer Amity Shlaes <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Coolidge.html?id=uvD13ZGXD9MC">wrote that</a> “Coolidge made a virtue of inaction” while simultaneously exhibiting “a ferocious discipline in work.” Political scientist Robert Gilbert <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=FJrWT4jmqfIC&lpg=PR6&ots=OJBlrei3c9&dq=%E2%80%9CThe%20Dysfunctional%20Presidency%20of%20Calvin%20Coolidge%E2%80%9D%20%20robert%20gilbert&pg=PR6#v=onepage&q&f=false">argued that after Coolidge’s son died</a> during his first year as president, Coolidge’s “affinity for sleep became more extreme.” Grief, according to Gilbert, explained his growing penchant for slumbering, which expanded into a pre-lunch nap, a two- to four-hour post-lunch snooze and 11 hours of shut-eye nightly.</p>
<h2>For Reagan, the jury’s out</h2>
<p>Ronald Reagan may have had a tendency to nod off. </p>
<p>“I have left orders to be awakened at any time in case of a national emergency – even if I’m in a cabinet meeting,” <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=S33lCQAAQBAJ&dq=inauthor:%22Jacob+Weisberg%22&source=gbs_navlinks_s">he joked</a>. Word got out that he napped daily, and historian Michael Schaller <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=7UvzZAZcDl4C&printsec=frontcover&dq=reckoning+with+reagan&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi9w9vji7zgAhVBTt8KHcOmAzcQ6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=reckoning%20with%20reagan&f=false">wrote in 1994</a> that Reagan’s staff “released a false daily schedule that showed him working long hours,” labeling his afternoon nap “personal staff time.” But some family members <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1990/06/19/the-no-nap-president-reagan/0e54da27-135a-441d-b2c3-fdbcef40d581/?utm_term=.9abb2e59063f">denied that he napped</a> in the White House.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=VcvtAAAAMAAJ&q=reagan+as+president+paul+boyer&dq=reagan+as+president+paul+boyer&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjxmeWHjLzgAhVGdt8KHb21BJ4Q6AEIKjAA">Journalists were divided</a>. Some found him “lazy, passive, stupid or even senile” and “intellectually lazy … without a constant curiosity,” while others claimed he was “a hard worker,” who put in long days and worked over lunch. Perhaps age played a role in Reagan’s naps – if they happened at all. </p>
<h2>Clinton crams in the hours</h2>
<p>One president not prone to napping was Bill Clinton. Frustrated that he could not find time to think, Clinton ordered a formal study of how he spent his days. <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-oral-histories/marcia-hale-oral-history-assistant-president-and">His ideal</a> was four hours in the afternoon “to talk to people, to read, to do whatever.” Sometimes he got half that much. </p>
<p>Two years later, a second study found that, during Clinton’s 50-hour workweek, “regularly scheduled meetings” took up 29 percent of his time, “public events, etc.” made up 36 percent of his workday, while “thinking time – phone & office work” constituted 35 percent of his day. Unlike presidents whose somnolence drew sneers, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/17/weekinreview/finally-nap-time-for-america.html">Clinton was disparaged</a> for working too much and driving his staff to exhaustion with all-nighters. </p>
<h2>Partisanship at the heart of criticism?</h2>
<p>The work of being president of the United States never ends. There is always more to be done. Personal time may be a myth, as whatever the president reads, watches or does can almost certainly be applied to some aspect of the job. </p>
<p>Trump’s “executive time” could be a rational response to the demands of the job or life circumstances. Trump, for example, only seems to get <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-may-be-playing-with-fire-by-only-getting-4-to-5-hours-sleep-2017-02-08">four or five hours</a> of sleep a night, which seems to suggest that he has more time to tackle his daily duties than the rest of us.</p>
<p>But, like his predecessors, the appearance of taking time away from running the country will garner criticism. Though they can sometimes catch 40 winks, presidents can seldom catch a break.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stacy A. Cordery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Calvin Coolidge, during one stretch of his presidency, was getting 15 hours of shut-eye each day, while William Howard Taft was known for nodding off during public events.Stacy A. Cordery, Professor of History, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1074192018-11-28T11:41:18Z2018-11-28T11:41:18ZTrump, Saudi Arabia and the Khashoggi case: What would Obama have done?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247586/original/file-20181127-76761-14p1n8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-No-Ambassadors/e7401a29a6d145069edec9a3ebeb04fc/28/0">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After weeks of ratcheting tension about who authorized the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Donald Trump sought to put an end to the debate. </p>
<p>He issued a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-standing-saudi-arabia/">blunt public statement</a> asserting that “we may never know all of the facts surrounding the murder of Mr. Jamal Khashoggi,” and instead he identified a much larger concern for the U.S. </p>
<p>Trump warned that Saudi Arabia is a key ally against terrorism and the “largest oil producing nation in the world.” Therefore, U.S. interests demand that it remain close partners with the Saudis.</p>
<p>Trump’s pronouncement met with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/world/middleeast/trump-saudi-khashoggi.html">widespread disapproval</a> from both Republicans and Democrats as well as internationally. </p>
<p>But some foreign policy experts offer an <a href="https://theconversation.com/saudi-arabia-is-a-repressive-regime-and-so-are-a-lot-of-us-allies-105106">alternative explanation</a>. They maintain that the U.S. has a long history of allying itself with autocrats and dictators and Trump’s approach is not a drastic departure from existing U.S. foreign policy norms. Instead, Trump’s cardinal sin has been to state explicitly what had been understood implicitly. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/ei/biog/bureau/227102.htm">former State Department official</a> overseeing democracy and human rights programs, and now as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OgVZmm4AAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of foreign policy and international relations</a>, I believe this argument oversimplifies the complex relationship between interests and values in U.S. foreign policy over the last century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247588/original/file-20181127-76767-p9082a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Franklin D. Roosevelt, left, reportedly said of Nicaraguan President Anastasio Somoza, right, that ‘Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Dist-of-/d232505e84964c4a9e763805ca76acc2/4/0">AP file photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Roosevelt the realist, Wilson the idealist</h2>
<p>Since the start of the 20th century, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2010.501176">U.S. foreign policy has vacillated</a> between the “pragmatic realism” of Teddy Roosevelt and the “democratic idealism” of Woodrow Wilson. </p>
<p>For realists, international affairs is what <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/26/one-world-rival-theories/">scholar Jack Snyder calls</a> a “struggle for power among self-interested states.” In contrast, liberalists or idealists believe that nations forge ties through trade, finance and shared democratic norms, leading to progress in relations between states. </p>
<p>It’s true that the U.S. has often thrown its weight behind tyrants and authoritarians. For example, President Franklin Roosevelt in 1939 <a href="https://www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/general-somoza-takes-over-nicaragua">allegedly said Nicaraguan President Anastasio Somoza</a> “may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” </p>
<p>Other authoritarian leaders supported by the U.S. include <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/08/16/marcos-a-us-backed-dictator-with-charisma">Philippines strongman Ferdinand Marcos</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/01/31/us.egypt.response/index.html">Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak</a> and Pakistani President <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Yahya-Khan">Yahya Khan</a>.</p>
<p>But there are many countervailing examples of U.S. interest in human rights and democratic ideals abroad. Following the conclusion of World War II, the U.S. helped establish the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which sets out fundamental human rights to be universally protected, and chartered the United Nations, which provides peace and security through cooperation, not war.</p>
<p>More recently, the U.S. led efforts to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/decision-to-intervene-how-the-war-in-bosnia-ended/">stop ethnic cleansing in Bosnia</a> and forestall <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2011/05/19/the-lessons-of-libya">mass civilian atrocities in Libya</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Diplomacy/Henry-Kissinger/9780671510992">Most experts agree</a> that Wilson’s strand of foreign policy idealism has eclipsed Roosevelt’s realism.</p>
<p>As former Secretary of State <a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Diplomacy/Henry-Kissinger/9780671510992">Henry Kissinger writes</a>, Roosevelt’s realist “approach to international affairs died with him in 1919; no significant school of American thought on foreign policy has invoked him since. On the other hand, it is surely the measure of Wilson’s intellectual triumph that even Richard Nixon … considered himself above all a disciple of Wilson’s internationalism.” </p>
<p>Even the most hawkish U.S. presidents have incorporated a strong moral component into their foreign policy. </p>
<p>Ronald Reagan’s strategy in the Cold War was to <a href="https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/dictatorships-double-standards/">encourage anti-communist resistance around the world</a>. Under the Reagan doctrine, it did not matter whether the U.S. supported cold-blooded tyrants or murderous dictators, so long as they served as a hedge against communist encroachment.</p>
<p>However, Reagan painted this strategy in moral terms, not just transactionally. He deeply believed that the most serious threats to human rights came from totalitarian communists. </p>
<p>As scholars <a href="https://www.routledge.com/International-Human-Rights-5th-Edition/Donnelly-Whelan/p/book/9780813349480">Jack Donnelly and Daniel J. Whelan</a> observe, “For the Reagan administration, global strategic rivalry with the Soviet Union was a struggle for human rights, regardless of the actual human rights practices of the governments in question.” </p>
<p>This did not make U.S. support of dictators morally justifiable. But it does show that human rights received due attention when formulating U.S. policy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247592/original/file-20181127-76746-14rmjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anti-communism drove President Reagan’s foreign policy. He’s seen here in 1987, imploring Russian leader Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin Wall, which is in the background.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Obama-at-the-Podium/d361ecc7838f4d849e3e4e55d45d16b9/19/0">AP Photo/Ira Schwartz, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>If Obama had faced the Khashoggi murder</h2>
<p>Would President Obama have adopted a different approach to Saudi Arabia and the Khashoggi murder? </p>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/31/magazine/yemen-war-saudi-arabia.html">foreign policy specialists point out</a> that under Obama, the U.S. approved Saudi Arabia initiating a brutal war in Yemen due to larger strategic priorities. What were those priorities? To stay in good graces with a critical regional ally and maintain a bulwark against Iranian ambition. </p>
<p>The current predicament is rooted in decisions made by Obama, in particular providing too much leeway to the Saudi crown prince. But the similarities stop there. </p>
<p>Based on how the Obama administration managed other vexing partners in the region – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-egypt-obama-balances-short-term-wants-against-long-term-goals/2013/08/17/025cfe36-0695-11e3-9259-e2aafe5a5f84_story.html?utm_term=.7c57ad5348a3">such as Egypt</a>, where it had to balance keeping the country as a security partner while admonishing it for human rights violations – I believe U.S. policy likely would have followed an alternative path.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247594/original/file-20181127-76752-1376zvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Barack Obama shakes hands with Saudi Arabia’s then-Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef in the White House in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Obama-Arab-Summit/44f016a0df964f499330bde5ae454af2/21/0">AP/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>First, the Obama administration would have consistently condemned Saudi actions. </p>
<p>It is hard to imagine Obama publicly contradicting a high-level intelligence report from the CIA pinning culpability on the Saudis, <a href="http://time.com/5462128/donald-trump-disputes-cia-saudi-prince-khashoggi/">as President Trump has done</a>. In fact, it is highly unlikely that such an intelligence leak would have happened at all under Obama’s watch – he always gave serious attention to recommendations from his bureaucracy. </p>
<p>Second, Obama would have pursued a more nuanced approach by making more deliberate use of existing diplomatic and economic tools to signal concern to the Saudis.</p>
<p>President Trump asserts that the U.S. either had to cut ties with Saudi or give them a free pass. That is a false choice. </p>
<p>The U.S. has many <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-10-15/use-and-misuse-economic-statecraft">intermediate measures</a> at its disposal – such as halting arms sales and increasingly punitive sanctions. Obama would have taken fuller advantage of these instruments.</p>
<p>Third, while Obama would have taken pains to preserve the relationship, he would have quietly sent a franker message to Saudi Arabia: Such behavior is intolerable, there must be accountability and this cannot happen again. For example, in response to the execution of 47 prisoners, former deputy national security adviser <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi-and-us-saudi-relationship/572905/">Ben Rhodes recalls</a>, “In blunt language, Obama protested these actions, and warned the king that Saudi Arabia’s human-rights record was going to bring greater international isolation.”</p>
<p>What Obama would not have done is publicly assert that the only <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/21528/trump-s-reckless-and-dangerous-plan-to-abandon-values-in-u-s-foreign-policy">values worth defending</a> are national interests. And that powerful – and rich – countries will receive preferential treatment from the U.S. even if they commit egregious human rights violations such as murder.</p>
<p>Trump has unmistakably set the U.S. down a road that breaks longstanding foreign policy precedent. His implicit endorsement of Saudi Arabia’s reckless behavior runs the risk of emboldening other leaders to pursue similar policies. </p>
<p>And Trump’s basis for letting Saudi Arabia off the hook – its strategic importance – is shaky. Many experts <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/3ba8a1_5e9019d625e84087af647e6cb91ea3e2.pdf">rightly point out</a> that Saudi’s usefulness to the U.S. is limited and Saudi’s regional standing is exceptionally dependent on U.S. support. </p>
<p>So why give away U.S. leverage for free and dispense with decades of policy precedence based on a flimsy premise? That is something only Trump can answer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107419/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Feldstein is affiliated as a nonresident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and is a former official in the Obama administration</span></em></p>President Trump says an alliance with Saudi Arabia is necessary, despite evidence the country’s crown prince ordered the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.Steven Feldstein, Frank and Bethine Church Chair of Public Affairs & Associate Professor, School of Public Service, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/991212018-07-11T11:14:00Z2018-07-11T11:14:00ZTrump isn’t the first leader to rattle the world order<p>Donald Trump’s recent trip to the G-7 summit <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-floats-end-to-all-tariffs-threatens-major-penalties-for-countries-that-dont-agree/2018/06/09/a06350be-6bf1-11e8-bea7-c8eb28bc52b1_story.html?utm_term=.c92efef70139">smashed expectations of how world leaders should behave</a>. </p>
<p>Trump’s actions in Canada included exacerbating the growing trade war and accusing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of lying. Summit participants described the President as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/world/europe/trump-nato-summit-g-7.html">“angry, mocking, wandering and rude</a>.” Trump left the G-7 to meet in Singapore with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. This only added to G-7 members’ apprehension, as many believe the American leader is more apt to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-kim-summit-trump-says-we-have-developed-a-very-special-bond-at-end-of-historic-meeting/2018/06/12/ff43465a-6dba-11e8-bf86-a2351b5ece99_story.html?utm_term=.061062be8a64">befriend dictators than allies</a>.</p>
<p>As the President begins the NATO summit, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-nato-and-putin-summits-trumps-unorthodox-diplomacy-rattles-allies/2018/07/06/16c7aa4e-7006-11e8-bd50-b80389a4e569_story.html?utm_term=.7c67f895b399&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1">many allies fear</a> that he will unilaterally take actions that will further call into question America’s support for their countries. Trump has already sent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/02/world/europe/trump-nato.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">“sharply worded”</a> letters to multiple NATO allies ahead of the summit, admonishing them to spend more on defense. </p>
<p>The President’s decision to hold a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/28/world/europe/trump-putin-helsinki-meeting.html">summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> days after the Brussels meeting only heightens alliance worries.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://isd.georgetown.edu/McFarland">diplomatic historian</a> and practitioner of foreign affairs. History shows us that Trump isn’t the first leader to take a brutish approach to international affairs. It is worth looking back at some historical actors who ignored international norms and acted unilaterally and defiantly. </p>
<p>It’s also worth considering the results of their behavior.</p>
<h2>Kaiser Wilhelm’s follies</h2>
<p>Wilhelm II, German leader from 1888 to 1918, is an interesting and tragic historical figure, who has recently been <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/12/the-donald-trump-kaiser-wilhelm-parallels-are-getting-scary/">compared</a> to President Trump. Those references include one article entitled <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/what-happens-when-a-bad-tempered-distractible-doofus-runs-an-empire">“What Happens When a Bad-Tempered, Distractible Doofus Runs an Empire</a>?” Wilhelm was the grandson of England’s Queen Victoria. But he did enough to sour relations that even his family ties couldn’t stop Germany and England from <a href="http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/greatwar/g2/backgroundcs1.htm">going to war in 1914</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226992/original/file-20180710-70045-m4a76v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226992/original/file-20180710-70045-m4a76v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1577&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226992/original/file-20180710-70045-m4a76v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226992/original/file-20180710-70045-m4a76v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1577&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226992/original/file-20180710-70045-m4a76v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1981&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226992/original/file-20180710-70045-m4a76v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1981&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226992/original/file-20180710-70045-m4a76v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1981&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kaiswer Wilhelm II.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=438189">Public domain</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like his country, Wilhelm was both ambitious and insecure. “Deep into the most distant jungles of other parts of the world, everyone should know the voice of the German Kaiser,” <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/crips-column/2009/01/germany-wilhelm-war-austria">he once wrote</a>. “Nothing should occur on this earth without having first heard him.” </p>
<p>Wilhelm hated being questioned. One historian, Margaret MacMillan, describes how he “deliberately shook hands too hard <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/105817/the-war-that-ended-peace-by-margaret-macmillan/9780812980660/">with his strong right hand</a>.” MacMillan also wrote that he liked slapping male monarchs on their behinds and his adolescent playfulness appalled his fellow royals. </p>
<p>Wilhelm had numerous indiscretions and poor policy decisions prior to World War I. His infamous <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Kruger-telegram">“Kruger telegram” of 1896</a> infuriated London when he congratulated a group of independent south Africans for repelling a British-backed military raid. His decision to expand the German navy and the publication of an infamous <a href="https://wwi.lib.byu.edu/index.php/The_Daily_Telegraph_Affair">1908 Daily Telegraph “interview”</a> that was insulting and perplexing to British readers also sparked rifts. <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/105817/the-war-that-ended-peace-by-margaret-macmillan/9780812980660/">MacMillan succinctly states that</a> “Wilhelm’s erratic behavior, his changeable enthusiasms and his propensity to talk too much and without thinking first helped to create an impression of a dangerous Germany.” </p>
<p>Ultimately, that perception helped lead to war.</p>
<h2>Saddam’s plans go awry</h2>
<p>Before <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/war-in-iraq-begins">America attacked Iraq in 2003</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/10/17/world/meast/saddam-hussein-fast-facts/index.html">ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein</a>, the strongman from Tikrit had already earned the international community’s ire with his August 1990 invasion of Kuwait. </p>
<p>That invasion came after a decade of regional instability with Saddam as a troublesome central player. </p>
<p>From 1980-1988, Saddam, angry at and fearful of Iranian interference in Iraq domestically, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War">fought Iran</a> in a vicious war that also sought territorial gains. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia were afraid that Iran’s revolution would spread. Acting on the principle that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” they <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/gulf-war">heavily funded Saddam’s war effort</a>.</p>
<p>Iraq was worn down and heavily indebted to Arab benefactors following the war’s end in 1988. For some time after, Saddam switched his focus to Kuwait. He laid claim to some of the country’s vast oil deposits and tried to wrest away ports that provided better sea access for oil tankers and cargo ships. </p>
<p>Saddam’s claims to these rich areas, which he called <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/A_History_of_the_Modern_Middle_East.html?id=LYe0CwAAQBAJ">Iraq’s “19th province”</a>, were accompanied by his demands for Kuwait to forgive billions of dollars of debt owed by Iraq. Saddam then claimed Kuwait was siphoning off oil from a shared oil field. Most egregious for Saddam, who was dependent on higher oil prices to rebuild Iraq, was Kuwait’s decision to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1989/06/08/business/new-opec-limits-meet-resistance.html">produce more oil than OPEC quotas</a> had set, driving prices down.</p>
<p>With no solution in sight, <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/iraq-invades-kuwait">Saddam invaded and occupied Kuwait</a> in August 1990. </p>
<p>The Cold War was just ending and the United States was trying to usher in a <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/22029/a-world-transformed-by-george-hw--bush-and-brent-scowcroft/9780679752592/">“new world order”</a>, which, it was hoped, would make possible better cooperation among the great powers. That meant Washington and the international community would not, and could not, let Saddam’s actions stand. Ultimately, a military a coalition led by the United States <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/0227.html">decimated Iraqi forces</a> and Kuwait was freed. Saddam’s grip on his country and the region would never be as strong.</p>
<p>Like many other leaders who disrupted diplomatic norms, Saddam’s actions ultimately failed.</p>
<h2>The Rough Rider lives up to his name</h2>
<p>An assassin’s bullet <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/0906.html">killed President William McKinley</a> and made Theodore Roosevelt president in 1901. </p>
<p>The assassination brought a new kind of presidency to the United States: Not only was Roosevelt the youngest president ever, his boldness and his views of the office introduced what we now know as the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/political-bookworm/post/the-inevitability-of-the-imperial-presidency/2011/04/22/AFTRBoPE_blog.html?utm_term=.5fc1c0ff0f99">imperial presidency</a>.” </p>
<p>Freakishly bright and full of boundless energy, Roosevelt ran roughshod over his contemporaries, some of whom called him <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Major_Problems_in_American_Foreign_Relat.html?id=spA88Rt23soC">an imperialist and militarist,</a> while one described him as <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/from-colony-to-superpower-9780195078220?q=George%20Herring&lang=en&cc=us">“the mere monstrous embodiment of unprecedented and monstrous noise</a>.” He proclaimed to live by the motto: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.”</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226998/original/file-20180710-70066-9i9uvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226998/original/file-20180710-70066-9i9uvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226998/original/file-20180710-70066-9i9uvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226998/original/file-20180710-70066-9i9uvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226998/original/file-20180710-70066-9i9uvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=948&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226998/original/file-20180710-70066-9i9uvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=948&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226998/original/file-20180710-70066-9i9uvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=948&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Theodore Roosevelt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Public domain</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This was probably most apparent in Latin America. Seeking a U.S. sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/from-colony-to-superpower-9780195078220?q=George%20Herring&lang=en&cc=us">Roosevelt bullied and cajoled</a> both regional and European nations when Washington’s interests were threatened, using threats of military <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/from-colony-to-superpower-9780195078220?q=George%20Herring&lang=en&cc=us">action and diplomatic pressure</a>. </p>
<p>Roosevelt’s bullishness <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/117455/theodore-rex-by-edmund-morris/9780812966008/">was felt in Venezuela</a>, where Britain and Germany had mounted a blockade over Venezelua’s unpaid debts to those countries. Roosevelt pushed the Europeans to <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/roosevelt/foreign-affairs">arbitrate rather than blockade</a>, fearing European ambitions for Venezuelan territory. <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/117455/theodore-rex-by-edmund-morris/9780812966008/">It was felt in Panama</a>, where he promoted Panamanian independence from Colombia in order to ensure U.S. <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/roosevelt/foreign-affairs">control over a canal</a> that would be built across Panama. That canal, in use to this day, would connect the Atlantic and the Pacific, although it is no longer under U.S. control.</p>
<p>His most famous, and likely most lasting, influence came with his 1904 “corollary” to the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1801-1829/monroe">Monroe Doctrine</a>.
President James Monroe’s 1823 proclamation stated America’s aim to be in predominant control of the Western Hemisphere, including Latin America. </p>
<p>Roosevelt went further. </p>
<p>Now, not only would the United States diplomatically oppose European intervention in the region, the U.S. would also directly intervene in Latin American countries if Washington felt it would forestall European intervention. </p>
<p>Roosevelt’s action, in part, led to numerous American regional actions in the following decades, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/from-colony-to-superpower-9780195078220?q=George%20Herring&lang=en&cc=us">in places such as Haiti, Mexico and the Dominican Republic</a>. These actions, left mostly unchecked by European powers, created a negative Latin American view of the United States as an imperialistic power, lasting in some quarters to this day. </p>
<p>These examples are by no means precise comparisons to today. But they do highlight that history is replete with leaders acting bullishly, with singular confidence in their path and lack of concern for the opinions of others, including allies. </p>
<p>And history is also filled with the mixed results – at best – of those actions.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the title of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly McFarland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>NATO leaders meet in Belgium today; many are worried about US President Trump’s habit of breaking diplomatic norms. History is filled with other leaders acting bullishly, often with poor results.Kelly McFarland, Director of programs and research, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/897252018-01-08T12:45:18Z2018-01-08T12:45:18ZWoodrow Wilson’s famous US speech makes a mockery of Donald Trump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201129/original/file-20180108-83563-ej88x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thomas Woodrow Wilson (1856-1934)</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson#/media/File:President_Wilson_1919.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We have reached the centenary of US President Woodrow Wilson’s speech to Congress on January 8, 1918, outlining his <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/wilson14.asp">Fourteen Points</a> for brokering a lasting peace in Europe after World War I. It was the famous roar of idealism from across the Atlantic that would be <a href="https://www.historyonthenet.com/world-war-one-the-treaty-of-versailles/">whittled back</a> in the name of self-interest by the victorious allies at Versailles the following year. </p>
<p>The speech would go on to shape many features of American foreign policy, however, particularly the broader points like open diplomacy, removal of economic and trade barriers, freedom of the seas and a general association of nations working together. Wilson <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/woodrow-wilson-suffers-a-stroke">would suffer</a> a stroke that would partially paralyse him in the fallout from Versailles, but his Congress speech would ensure his legacy as one of America’s most influential presidents. </p>
<p>The centenary takes place just days before the anniversary of the inauguration of Donald Trump. With the media currently full of the astonishing claims about the administration contained in <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/michael-wolff-claims-spent-three-hours-talking-donald-trump/">Michael Wolff’s new book</a>, one wonders what the 45th president’s legacy will be. Certainly foreign policy looks more uncertain than for many years. What, then, do the Fourteen Points tell us about Donald Trump?</p>
<h2>America front and centre</h2>
<p>Wilson’s speech that day in 1918 reflected his conviction that the United States should take a central place on the world stage – securing global peace and stability while furthering American interests at the same time. His approach would be largely rejected by his countrymen during the isolationist 1920s and 1930s, before ultimately coming to define many Americans’ view of their country’s role in the world. </p>
<p>Since Trump came to power last January, it looks as if America has entered a new era. Many conservatives and rural middle Americans – the bedrock of President Trump’s support – have long been suspicious of America’s global role and complained about the ways in which the country’s foreign policy has been viewed by the rest of the world. </p>
<p>They feel that when America intervenes – as in the first Gulf War or in Afghanistan – it is accused of putting self-interest before the good of the international community. But when it doesn’t intervene – as in Bosnia or Syria – the accusations are little different. Why, they argue, should the United States be the world’s policeman? </p>
<p>This is clearly reflected in Trump’s <a href="http://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2017/">National Security Strategy</a>. Released in mid-December, it rejects many of the principles of previous American foreign policy, stating quite clearly that it must be “guided by outcomes, not ideology”. It is pure realpolitik. </p>
<p>The document promises explicitly to “put the safety, interests and well-being of our citizens first”. This includes building <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-mexico-has-nothing-to-fear-from-donald-trump-55362">the infamous wall</a> along America’s border with Mexico, withdrawing from many trade agreements which it sees as unfair, and beginning a substantial conventional and nuclear arms build up. It is America first from top to bottom – almost point by point a rejection of the ideas contained in Wilson’s Fourteen Points. </p>
<h2>The great game</h2>
<p>If this Trump strategy rejects the 20th-century concept of internationalism, it has surprising echoes of much earlier mid-19th century diplomacy. It says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>After being dismissed as a phenomenon of an earlier century, great power competition has returned.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump developed this point while outlining his policy to journalists, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/donald-trump-new-era-global-competition-america-going-to-win/4169607.html">explaining</a>: “America is in the game, and America is going to win.” The idea that foreign policy is a great game that can be won has echoes of Victorian men’s clubs, and is one of the most worrying changes initiated by Trump’s administration. It suggests a binary explanation of the world where there are only winners and losers, where those not participating in the game can be ignored. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bird brain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/america-first-presidential-inauguration-pledge-isolated-560804350?src=EV8H1eezXw3XBcsYfMYJ6A-1-58">Barry Barnes</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But perhaps the most concerning shift of all, which probably echoes Trump’s personality more than his policy advisers, is the determination to conduct foreign policy “without apology”. Not only will the US put its own interests first, in other words, it will not deeply consider the interests of its allies. </p>
<p>Two recent policy changes reflect this. Following America’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-climate-usa-paris-idUSKBN1AK2FM">withdrawal</a> from the Paris Climate Agreement, the security strategy makes no mention of climate change as one of the issues facing the world, although it repeatedly discusses “the business climate”. </p>
<p>An even clearer rejection of internationalism was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-trumps-declaration-on-jerusalem-mean-to-palestinians-88841">December 6 decision</a> to move the American Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This was apparently against the specific advice of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, both of whom feared the impact on American diplomatic influence in the Middle East. </p>
<h2>Big button diplomacy</h2>
<p>This brings us to Twitter. Rather like 19th-century diplomats, where telegrams could spark wars, Trump seems often to have resorted to “Twitter diplomacy” to shape, or more often seemingly frustrate, American foreign policy. </p>
<p>President Teddy Roosevelt famously counselled that American foreign policy should “speak softly, and carry a big stick”. Perhaps nothing sums up Trump’s contrast to his predecessors than his tweeting – most recently the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/02/politics/donald-trump-north-korea-nuclear/index.html">New Year’s Day reminder</a> to North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un, in language more reminiscent of a primary school playground than international diplomats, that “I too have a nuclear button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his”. </p>
<p>None of this is to lionise Wilson, it should be said. America’s 28th president was no progressive <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/11/wilson-legacy-racism/417549/">on race</a>, for example, and he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/wilson/foreign-affairs">invaded</a> Haiti and the Dominican Republic. </p>
<p>But his Fourteen Points speech remains one of the great pieces of statesmanship of the modern era. Where it fought hard for stability, President Trump’s foreign policy seems more likely to produce instability. Where it fought for openness, the Trump administration turns inwards. It is a moment to reflect on what American leadership offered the world 100 years ago, and what it might learn to offer again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Ward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>America finds itself in uncharted territory under Donald Trump – not least when it comes to climate change and Israel policy.Matthew Ward, Senior Lecturer in History, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/657732016-10-18T01:37:10Z2016-10-18T01:37:10ZHow does Obama’s use of unilateral powers compare to other presidents?<p>During a 2008 town hall event, then Senator Barack Obama told the audience that as a legal scholar and teacher, he took the Constitution “very seriously.” He went on to criticize the Bush administration, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3IWq3CXHyc">asserting</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The biggest problems that we’re facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When he was a presidential candidate, it was easy for Obama to criticize the unpopular Bush administration. Once he was in the Oval Office, though, and facing what two congressional scholars call the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-the-112th-congress/2013/01/04/9aa40962-55c6-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story.html">uncompromising opposition</a>” of the Republican Party, Obama’s stance on executive power transformed. He realized that, as John F. Kennedy <a href="http://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15087.html">said</a>, “Many things can be done by a stroke of the presidential pen.”</p>
<p>Kennedy was referring to the unilateral powers of the presidency. </p>
<h2>Ways to go it alone</h2>
<p>Presidents have more than one way to act without the support of Congress and the courts.</p>
<p>These presidential powers include executive orders, proclamations, national security directives and memoranda. The powers matter because many important policies like <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=60737">integrating the military</a> and institutions like <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=58862">the Peace Corps</a> are products of presidents going it alone.</p>
<p>These actions are often controversial because these powers are not part of the Constitution. Although presidents since George Washington have been using unilateral authority, scholars point out that the use of these powers have become more significant under recent presidents. Indeed, University of Chicago scholar <a href="http://williamghowell.com/">William G. Howell</a> argues that the capacity to <a href="http://williamghowell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Unilateral-Powers-A-Brief-Overview.pdf">go it alone</a> is a key characteristic of the modern presidency.</p>
<p>So President Obama is following a rich tradition. As Concordia University professor Graham Dodds writes in his valuable book, <a href="http://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15087.html">“Take Up Your Pen</a>,” Teddy Roosevelt provided the template for the modern president – a model that all of his successors have emulated, regardless of party. </p>
<p>Although he didn’t invent executive power, Roosevelt redefined what could be construed as legitimate. He “established and largely institutionalized the practice of regularly using unilateral presidential directives for significant purposes,” Dodd tells us. Roosevelt issued more than 1,000 executive directives in areas from <a href="http://www.theodore-roosevelt.com/trexecutiveorders.html">race relations</a> to <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/teddy-roosevelt-rough-rider-over-spelling-rules-1429225187">simplifying English spelling</a>. Echoing contemporary Republican complaints about President Obama, critics of Roosevelt decried his administration as a “dictatorship” and declared him “<a href="http://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15087.html">Caesar</a>.”</p>
<h2>A busy 100 days</h2>
<p>For his part, President Obama hit the ground running once in office. According to one <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24535228.html">report</a>, he issued more unilateral directives “in his first 100 days than any president since Franklin Roosevelt.” </p>
<p>Early in his tenure, Obama issued directives <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85669">banning torture</a>, made efforts to make his administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/TransparencyandOpenGovernment">more</a> <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=76782">transparent</a> and ordered <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85670">Guantanamo Bay</a> closed. He also issued a <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85715">series</a> of <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85716">pro-labor</a> <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85717">directives</a> that <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85740">reversed</a> Bush-era policies.</p>
<p>Throughout his two terms, Obama has implemented major administrative regulations, nearly 50 percent more than President George W. Bush. These include workplace protections, raising the <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=104737">minimum wage</a> for federal employees, extending rights to marginalized groups including an order banning federal contractors from discriminating against <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=105463">LGBT workers</a> and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2009/01/26/presidential-memorandum-fuel-economy">raising fuel efficiency standards</a>. The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/us/politics/obama-era-legacy-regulation.html">New York Times</a> recently noted that under Obama’s progressive actions, “the government has literally placed a higher value on human life.”</p>
<p>Despite all of this activity, Obama has also shown some restraint in this polarized political era. Consider executive orders – one of the most frequently used unilateral powers with more than 15,000 issued since the Washington administration. Obama has signed just 33 annually on average, fewer than any president since <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/orders.php">Grover Cleveland during his first term</a>. </p>
<p>One reason for Obama’s cautiousness may be that presidents are less likely to issue directives during <a href="http://williamghowell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Unilateral-Powers-A-Brief-Overview.pdf">periods of divided government</a>. During Obama’s first term, when he enjoyed unified government during his first two years in office, he averaged 37 executive orders per year. This average dropped to 29 in his second term when Republicans were running Congress.</p>
<h2>A team of one</h2>
<p>So how effective are these unilateral moves?</p>
<p><a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7658.html">Research shows</a> usually quite effective. Congress and the courts have trouble pushing back against presidential directives. However, Obama has been frustrated on a few fronts. </p>
<p>For one, Congress has thwarted Obama’s efforts at tackling gun violence. The president’s lack of progress in this arena demonstrates the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/01/06/obamas-gun-control-package-reveals-how-limited-his-unilateral-authority-actually-is/">limits of a unilateral approach</a>. As Bowdoin professor Andrew Rudalevige tells us, “The most substantive shifts Obama is proposing require legislative approval” – and he didn’t get it. Congress also rejected Obama’s <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85670">early directive</a> to shut down Guantanamo. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court, for its part, has effectively nullified Obama’s actions on immigration reform and temporarily halted his historic reductions of power plant emissions mandated through the Environmental Protection Agency.</p>
<h2>No change ahead</h2>
<p>Expect more presidential directives from the next administration. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have promised, keeping with tradition, to use the unilateral tools while in the White House. </p>
<p>Additionally, if Trump wins, Obama will likely use his powers to implement last-minute agenda items like trade, immigration and health care. A flurry of last-minute orders <a href="http://williamghowell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/TheLast100.pdf">is typical</a> when the opposing party is taking over the White House. </p>
<p>While his legislative accomplishments like the Affordable Care Act are noteworthy, President Obama’s legacy will be defined in no small part by what he did alone. Obama joins a long line of presidents who were suspicious of these powers before taking office, but who realized the strong appeal of them as a sitting president. </p>
<p>Paul Begala, an adviser to the Clinton administration, put it best, “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1998/07/05/us/true-to-form-clinton-shifts-energies-back-to-us-focus.html">Stroke of the pen. Law of the land. Kind of cool.</a>”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65773/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Major does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Obama has set aside more water and land than any president in history. But he didn’t invent unilateral presidential powers.Mark Major, Senior Lecturer, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.