tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/tropical-forests-40462/articlesTropical forests – The Conversation2023-12-20T19:56:51Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196342023-12-20T19:56:51Z2023-12-20T19:56:51ZMeasuring the invisible: the tough job of calculating the carbon stocks and fluxes of a forest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564820/original/file-20230904-21-onpqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C20%2C4545%2C3387&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Carbon fluxes between the forest and atmosphere in Gabon.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicolas Barbier </span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Green lungs” is the term often used to describe rainforests due to their ability to use photosynthesis to capture CO<sub>2</sub>, the planet’s primary greenhouse gas. That makes them a key component of global climate regulation, and their preservation represents a major issue for decision-makers and citizens alike. But calculating how much carbon such forests store and the flows they represent into the planet’s overall greenhouse gas balance is no easy feat. In fact, it is one of the segments where our knowledge remains most limited - even the carbon stocks and flows of the oceans are easier to quantify.</p>
<p>The stakes are colossal, however. To prevent future scandals around conserving ecosystems that are reputed to be carbon sinks, we need reliable, independent measuring and monitoring systems. Otherwise, each country and stakeholder can take all the credit for themselves, come up with definitions and measurements that best suit their interests, and pay no heed to reality or the evolution of forest ecosystems.</p>
<p>Forest carbon stocks are not a cryptocurrency; they are a tangible physical quantity, but one that proves tricky to measure. </p>
<p>So how has this been done until now, and how have people gone about measuring these carbon stocks and flows that spark such fervent - and at times opportunistic - interest?</p>
<h2>The forest inventory</h2>
<p>It all starts in the forest with the tried and tested methods of the woodcutter, as used by the forest industry to compute volumes of harvestable timber. Because carbon makes up half of the total dry mass of green plants, specifically trees, quantifying the total stock of this element means coming up with an estimate for the volume of each tree and identifying its species. The species is important because this is what helps determine wood density and, ultimately, the amount of carbon stocked per volume of wood.</p>
<p>Obviously, the number of species found in one rainforest can be so huge that not a single expert in the world could name every one of them. While temperate Europe contains only 124 tree species, there are at least 40,000 growing in the tropics, with some estimates <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1423147112">putting this number at more than 53,000</a>. As such, researchers must systematically compile plant collections to serve as benchmark test material, checking whether a tree belongs to a given species by looking at existing samples from museums and universities. </p>
<p>Next, to assess the evolving carbon stock – which is to say the carbon flowing in and out of the forest – measurements must be taken regularly to calculate tree growth, count dead specimens and include shrubs that are tall enough to be categorised as trees.</p>
<h2>Forest inventory</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three photos of men climbing trees to measure their size" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546168/original/file-20230904-17-jduqa5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For some measurements, researchers are required to climb trees, as Pierre Ploton can be seen doing in Cameroon, in the photograph to the left. Measuring the diameter of a misshapen tree can also be a somewhat acrobatic manoeuvre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vincent Droissart et Nicolas Barbier</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To make the challenge even more daunting, tropical forests are - still - vast, dense, difficult to access and located in countries with poor infrastructure. Even when all goes well, the site to be inventoried will require at least several days’ travel from the capital. Of course, it would be impossible to measure the whole forest; instead, a sample is taken, just like for an electoral survey. Typically, researchers select a number of fairly large tracts of land (ideally equivalent to the size of two football pitches, i.e., between 500 and 1,000 trees per tract).</p>
<p>The selection criteria constitute a whole science in themselves (whether the sample is totally random or chosen from among specific vegetation types), and modifying the criteria halfway through the process can render the entire task null and void. Researchers speak of “majestic forest” bias, for instance, when tracts are selected in unusually intact forests to estimate the average carbon content for all the forests in a given region.</p>
<p>Simple measurements are taken on site, including trunk diameter and, more rarely, tree height. Next, researchers draw up conversion tables known as allometric equations, which use these few measurements to estimate how much carbon a tree contains. The equations are created through felling and weighing a small number of trees. Given that the wet mass of just one of these giants can reach up to 160 tons and that it must be weighed directly in the forest, it can take a dozen workers a whole week to weigh a single tree.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Destructive weighing of a sample tree " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546173/original/file-20230904-27-zt2br3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546173/original/file-20230904-27-zt2br3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546173/original/file-20230904-27-zt2br3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546173/original/file-20230904-27-zt2br3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546173/original/file-20230904-27-zt2br3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546173/original/file-20230904-27-zt2br3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546173/original/file-20230904-27-zt2br3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Destructive weighing of a sample tree.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicolas Barbier</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Consequently, it is common to use equations from other regions, which can lead to bias. There are alternatives being developed that do not harm the forest, such as laser scanners, which can now measure the precise volume of standing trees. These methods have helped us produce new allometric equations in Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo, both much more efficiently and without compromising on accuracy.</p>
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<h2>How can this be applied on a large scale?</h2>
<p>Even with sampling, there are still considerable challenges involved in remeasuring sites to obtain reliable, up-to-date estimates of the carbon stocks and fluxes of an entire country or of all rainforests. Recent decades have seen the development of remote measuring techniques (known as remote sensing) for more efficient sampling that is less vulnerable to unpredictable conditions on the ground. Satellites scan the globe, taking daily measurements to measure surface status changes, rainfall and water currents, among other values.</p>
<p>Space missions have been set up specially to measure forest biomass, such as ESA’s <a href="https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/Biomass">BIOMASS mission</a>, which is currently awaiting a reliable launcher for take-off, or the GEDI laser on the International Space Station. In the meantime, we will have to keep extrapolating data from existing satellites, which are not necessarily designed for inspecting dense forest canopies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546176/original/file-20230904-15-trhz0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546176/original/file-20230904-15-trhz0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546176/original/file-20230904-15-trhz0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546176/original/file-20230904-15-trhz0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546176/original/file-20230904-15-trhz0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546176/original/file-20230904-15-trhz0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546176/original/file-20230904-15-trhz0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Infrared satellite image mosaic of the entire region of Central Africa (MODIS satellite, ten years of observation).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicolas Barbier</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is because remote sensing does not measure carbon or biomass directly, but rather a quantity of light or radio waves reflected by the objects in question. Complex physical or statistical models must be established to convert the raw data into actionable information, which is why it is vital to gather field data. Due to the scarce data and limited satellite signals currently at our disposal, the average for a country <a href="https://www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/Books/SOF-2021-01.pdf">can almost double from one map to the next</a>. Over the last decade, our team has spent many hours analysing the sources of these errors, which are sometimes hidden behind poor statistical approaches or poorly recorded instrumental effects.</p>
<p>For instance, images cannot be compared directly if they are taken in varying light conditions or atmospheres. Due to the permanent cloud cover near the Equator, we can even be constrained to using very poor-quality images or pixel composites amassed from a variety of images.</p>
<p>However, it is not enough to design supercomputers and launch space missions. Reinvesting in data acquisition on the ground is also vital in order to provide essential reference information. <a href="https://geo-trees.org/">International initiatives are being devised</a> to support national forest inventories (as seen above) or set up state-of-the-art calibration sites to serve as a reference for satellite missions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546177/original/file-20230904-17-5pa2ym.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546177/original/file-20230904-17-5pa2ym.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546177/original/file-20230904-17-5pa2ym.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546177/original/file-20230904-17-5pa2ym.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546177/original/file-20230904-17-5pa2ym.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546177/original/file-20230904-17-5pa2ym.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546177/original/file-20230904-17-5pa2ym.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stéphane Momo laser-scans a forest in Gabon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicolas Barbier</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What about other segments?</h2>
<p>If assessing carbon stocks in the visible parts of standing trees is difficult enough, very little is known about these trees’ roots and the carbon contained in soil, or about the amount that is carried away by rivers or absorbed into the atmosphere. For example, the peat bogs of the Congo basin were recently found to contain <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature21048">more carbon than all the forests in that same region</a>.</p>
<p>To measure the overall respiration and photosynthesis of the planet’s famed “green lungs”, we must erect flux towers. Looking out over the tree canopy at around 60 metres in height (and sometimes more than 300), these structures are fitted with devices with names like “sonic anemometer,” “infrared CO<sub>2</sub> analyser” and “hygrometer”, that measure gas exchanges between the atmosphere and the forest. It is a challenge in and of itself to power, maintain and secure such a facility over several decades. A team of fellow researchers attempted this feat in the Congo in the 1990s. When they returned, the tower’s aluminium cladding had been melted down and used to make pots.</p>
<p>Few realise that, in spite of the climate crisis, there is basically no measuring infrastructure left in good working order in Africa. There is even a shortage of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780128159989000075">basic facilities, such as weather stations</a>. This dearth of material prompts some deeper questions: who should be tasked with gathering all the essential data – government bodies in the Global South, private industrial operators, research agencies in the Global North? <a href="https://www.ird.fr/transfert-de-connaissances-et-initiation-de-nouvelles-collaborations-avec-lecole-nationale-des-eaux">For our part</a>, we advocate collaboration between researchers and scientific institutions from both of these regions, as this would enable us to learn together by benefiting from the best technology available. </p>
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<h2>What is the end goal?</h2>
<p>Science is doing its best to make more pertinent measurements of rainforest carbon stocks and fluxes. In time, this should help avoid repeating errors, whether careless or deliberate, such as those from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2021/greenhouse-gas-emissions-pledges-data/">Malaysia</a>, which made global headlines in 2021, when the country’s annual greenhouse gas balance claimed an annual forest carbon sink of over 243 million tons – equal to the amount in neighbouring Indonesia, which has five times as much forest land.</p>
<p>But while some countries publish exaggerated figures, others do not even bother. With <a href="https://theconversation.com/pourquoi-les-temperatures-pourraient-battre-des-records-au-cours-des-prochains-mois-210935">some researchers</a> already worried that we will have exceeded the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement by the end of 2023, the lack of data around greenhouse gas fluxes, stocks and emissions remains particularly alarming. <a href="https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/tribunes/planete/comprendre-les-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre/">At the start of the year</a>, only 48 countries had published an inventory of their greenhouse gases. This is tiny when we consider the fact that, starting in <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ETF_Handbook-first_edition_June_2020-FR.pdf">2024</a>, the 197 member countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be obliged to submit an annual report on this topic.</p>
<p>Rigorous measurements of carbon fluxes and stocks are also crucial to assessing the impact of conservation projects in forest ecosystems. Such measurements are especially important in the case of monetisation using carbon credits, as is the case for projects to avoid deforestation or promote reforestation. Once again, we must avoid falling into the same traps of recent decades, which have seen many forest conservation projects fail to produce any real, positive impact.</p>
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<p><em>This article is part of a project between The Conversation France and AFP Audio, supported financially by the European Journalism Centre, as part of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation “Solutions Journalism Accelerator” <a href="https://ejc.net/news/the-second-group-selected-in-the-solutions-journalism-accelerator-programme">“Solutions Journalism Accelerator”</a> initiative. AFP and The Conversation France have maintained their editorial independence at every stage of the project.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Ploton and Nicolas Barbier are members of UMR AMAP. Pierre Ploton, Nicolas Barbier and Bonaventure Sonké are members of the Laboratoire Mixte International (LMI) DYCOFAC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bonaventure Sonké, Le Bienfaiteur Sagang, Pierre Ploton et Stéphane Momo Takoudjou ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>Depending on the methods used, the measurement of forest carbon can vary by as much as 100%.Nicolas Barbier, Chercheur en Écologie Tropicale à l'UMR AMAP, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD)Bonaventure Sonké, Professeur de Botanique, Université de Yaounde 1Le Bienfaiteur Sagang, Écologiste et analyste en télédétection, University of California, Los AngelesPierre Ploton, Chercheur en Sciences des données et des modèles à l'UMR AMAP, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD)Stéphane Momo Takoudjou, Chercheur en Écologie tropicale, Université de LiègeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198942023-12-15T19:26:46Z2023-12-15T19:26:46ZPaying people to replant tropical forests − and letting them harvest the timber − can pay off for climate, justice and environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565848/original/file-20231214-23-sya0my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C14%2C3300%2C2183&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Planting trees on deforested lands in Panama.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stri.si.edu/facility/agua-salud">Jorge Aleman/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tropical forest landscapes are home to millions of <a href="https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/worlds-transformed-indigenous-peoples-health-changing">Indigenous peoples</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0905455107">small-scale farmers</a>. Just about <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/11/10/9698574/africa-diversity-map">every square meter of land</a> is spoken for, even if claims are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00847-w">not formally recognized by governments</a>.</p>
<p>These local landholders hold the key to a valuable solution as the world tries to slow climate change – restoring deforested tropical landscapes for a healthier future.</p>
<p>Tropical forests are <a href="https://eos.org/editors-vox/why-tropical-forests-are-important-for-our-well-being">vital to Earth’s climate and biodiversity</a>, <a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-06-football-pitch-tropical-forest-lost.html">but a soccer field-size area</a> of mature tropical forest is burned or cut down about every 5 seconds to clear space for crops and cattle today.</p>
<p>While those trees may be lost, the land still has potential. Tropical forests’ combination of year-round sunshine and high rainfall can lead to high growth rates, suggesting that areas where tropical forests once grew could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501639">valuable sites for reforestation</a>. In fact, a host of <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">international agreements</a> and <a href="https://www.bonnchallenge.org/">declarations</a> envision just this.</p>
<p>For reforestation projects to make a dent in climate change, however, they have to work with and for the people who live there.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t3-IBx0AAAAJ&hl=en">forest</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6fq4FOEAAAAJ&hl=en">ecologists</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5SejyLsAAAAJ&hl=en">involved in</a> tropical forest restoration, we have been studying effective ways to compensate people for the ecosystem services flowing from their land. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43861-4">new study</a>, we show how compensation that also allows landholders to harvest and sell some of the trees could provide powerful incentives and ultimately benefit everyone.</p>
<h2>The extraordinary value of ecosystem services</h2>
<p>Tropical forests are celebrated for their extraordinary biodiversity, with their preservation seen as <a href="https://eos.org/editors-vox/why-tropical-forests-are-important-for-our-well-being">essential for protecting life on Earth</a>. They are reservoirs of vast carbon stocks, slowing down climate change. However, when tropical forests are cleared and burned, they release <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1354">copious amounts of carbon dioxide</a>, a greenhouse gas that drives climate change.</p>
<p>Programs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705503104">offering payments</a> for <a href="https://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.html">ecosystem services</a> are designed to help keep those forests and other ecosystems healthy by compensating landholders for goods and services produced by nature that are often taken for granted. For example, forests <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013956">moderate stream flows and reduce flood risks</a>, support <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en?details=ca9433en#">bees and other pollinators</a> that benefit neighboring croplands, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121">help regulate climate</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Deforested hills seen from the air, with the light green coloring of newly planted saplings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565819/original/file-20231214-21-2o4y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical forests burned or clear-cut can be restored, like these newly planted (upper left) and naturally regrowing (lower right) watersheds at Agua Salud in Panama.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcos Guerra/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In recent years, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.958879">cottage industry</a> has grown up around paying people to reforest land for the carbon it can hold. It has been driven in part by corporations and other institutions looking for ways to meet their commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions by paying projects to reduce or prevent emissions elsewhere.</p>
<p>Early iterations of projects that pay landholders for ecosystem services <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.06.001">have been criticized</a> for focusing too much on economic efficiency, sometimes at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biu146">expense of social and environmental concerns</a>.</p>
<p>Win-win solutions – where environmental and social concerns are both accounted for – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/701698">may not be the most economically efficient</a> in the short term, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12219">they can lead to longer-term sustainability</a> as participants feel a sense of pride and responsibility for the project’s success. </p>
<p>That longer-term sustainability is essential for trees’ carbon storage, because many decades of growth is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10311-023-01598-y">required to build up stored carbon</a> and combat climate change. </p>
<h2>Why timber can be a triple win</h2>
<p>In the study, we looked at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43861-4">ways to maximize all three priorities</a> – environmental, economic and social benefits – in forest restoration, focusing on infertile land.</p>
<p>It may come as a surprise, but most soils in the tropics are <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1515-2010">extraordinarily infertile</a>, with concentrations of phosphorus and other essential nutrients an order of magnitude or more lower than in crop-producing areas of the northern hemisphere. This makes restoring tropical forests through reforestation <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/phantom-forests-tree-planting-climate-change">more complex</a> than simply planting trees – these areas also require maintenance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Looking up from the base of a tall tree toward its crown and the sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565865/original/file-20231214-29-d2seiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Species like <em>Terminalia amazonia</em>, valuable for commercial logging, can grow quickly, storing carbon in their wood as they grow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stri.si.edu/facility/agua-salud">Andres Hernandez/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our study we used some 1.4 million tree measurements taken over 15 years at the <a href="https://stri.si.edu/">Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute</a>’s <a href="https://stri.si.edu/facility/agua-salud">Agua Salud</a> site in Panama to project carbon sequestration and potential timber revenues. We looked at naturally regrowing forests, native tree species plantations and an effort to rehabilitate a failed teak plantation by planting high-value native trees known to grow on low-fertility soils <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.925877">to test routes to profitability</a>.</p>
<p>One set of solutions stood out: We found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/701698">giving landholders</a> both payments for carbon storage and the ability to generate revenue through timber production on the land could lead to vibrant forests and financial gains for the landholder.</p>
<p>It may seem counterintuitive to suggest timber harvesting when the goal is to restore forests, but allowing landholders to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-022-09906-0">generate timber revenue</a> can give them an incentive to protect and manage planted forests over time.</p>
<p>Regrowing trees on a deforested landscape, whether natural regrowth or plantations, is a net win for climate change, as trees take <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01379-4">vast amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere</a>. New forests that are selectively logged or plantations that are harvested in 30 to 80 years can help slow climate change while the world cuts emissions and expands carbon capture technologies.</p>
<h2>Reliable payments matter</h2>
<p>The structure of the payments is also important. We found that reliable annual carbon payments to rural landlords to regrow forests could match or surpass the income they might otherwise get from clearing land for cattle, thus making the transition to raising trees possible.</p>
<p>When cash payments are based instead on measurements of tree growth, they can vary widely year to year and among planting strategies. With the costs involved, that can stand in the way of effective land management to combat climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three charts, all rising swiftly in the first 10 years but then declining." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565623/original/file-20231213-15-x4pbb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart of three different types of forest restoration shows how variable payments for carbon storage would be if they were based on measured growth rather than average growth over 30 years. When payments decline over time, the incentive to nurture and protect those forests disappears. The blue line represents a flat payment of US$130 per hectare.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43861-4">Agua Salud/Smithsonian Institution</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using flat annual payments instead guarantees a stable income and will help encourage more landholders to enroll. We are now using that method in Panama’s Indigenous <a href="https://stri.si.edu/story/indigenous-reforestation">Ngäbe-Buglé Comarca</a>. The project pays residents to plant and nurture native trees over 20 years.</p>
<h2>Shifting risk to buyers of carbon offsets</h2>
<p>From a practical perspective, flat annual carbon payments and other cost-sharing strategies to plant trees shift the burden of risk from participants to carbon buyers, often companies in wealthy countries.</p>
<p>The landholders get paid even if actual growth of the trees falls short, and everyone benefits from the ecosystem services provided.</p>
<p>While win-win solutions may not initially appear to be economically efficient, our work helps to illustrate a viable path forward – where environmental, social and economic objectives can be met.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jefferson S. Hall receives funding from the US government via the Smithsonian Institution, Stanly Motta, Frank and Kristin Levinson, the Hoch family, U-Trust, and the Mark and Rachel Rohr Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Sinacore receives funding from the Mark and Rachel Rohr Foundation, Stanly Motta, Frank and Kristin Levinson, the Hoch family, and the Smithsonian.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michiel van Breugel receives funding from Singapore’s Ministry of Education and the Future Cities Lab Global Program of the ETH-Singapore Centre, which is funded by National Research Foundation Singapore.</span></em></p>It might seem counterintuitive to suggest timber harvesting when the goal is to restore forests, but that gives landholders the economic incentive to protect and manage forests over time.Jefferson S. Hall, Staff Scientist and Director, Agua Salud Project, Smithsonian InstitutionKatherine Sinacore, Postdoctoral Fellow, Agua Salud Project, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Smithsonian InstitutionMichiel van Breugel, Associate Professor of Environmental Science, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166062023-11-30T19:03:19Z2023-11-30T19:03:19ZCan we sustainably harvest trees from tropical forests? Yes – here are 5 ways to do it better<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562613/original/file-20231130-29-eyet8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C24%2C5423%2C3607&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/diverse-amazon-forest-seen-above-tropical-2072628056">Panga Media, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Logging typically <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8622">degrades tropical forests</a>. But what if logging is carefully planned and carried out by well-trained workers? </p>
<p>While public campaigns to end logging dominate both the popular press and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06187-1">high-profile science journals</a>, a transition from “timber mining” to evidence-based “managed forestry” is underway. Given <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac102">poor logging practices are likely to continue</a> in about 500 million hectares of tropical forest, efforts to promote responsible forestry deserve more attention. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/opportunities-reduce-tropical-forest-degradation-and-mitigate-climate-change">our new report</a> we recommend five ways to improve tropical forest management. This work was funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Forest Service International Program.</p>
<p>Fortunately, these practices are compatible with management for non-timber forest products such as fruits, fibres, resins and medicinal plants, as well as biodiversity conservation. They would also reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon removal in cost-effective ways. </p>
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Read more:
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<h2>Five ways to improve forest fates</h2>
<p>Research shows <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.003">biodiversity is mostly retained</a> in well managed, selectively logged forests. Especially if <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12446">hunting is controlled</a> and lower-impact logging practices are employed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00242.x">carbon stocks remain high</a>.</p>
<p>Harvesting 5–10% of the trees does temporarily reduce the total amount of carbon stored in the forest, but these stocks recover quickly if damage to young trees and soils is kept to a minimum.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3019%2C4028&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing a high-vis vest and hard hat stands alongside a giant tree in a tropical forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3019%2C4028&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562570/original/file-20231129-31-kfjej9.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Managed well, tropical forests can be a sustainable source of timber.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudia Romero</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here are five ways to smooth the transition from “timber mining” and clear-felling to managed forestry featuring selective harvesting: </p>
<p><strong>1. Improve logging practices.</strong> Planned harvest operations – carried out by trained workers suitably rewarded for the proper application of lower-impact logging practices – result in less soil erosion, fewer worker injuries, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2019.02.004">half the carbon emissions</a> of conventional logging. </p>
<p><strong>2. Waste less wood.</strong> Workers can be trained to maximise the recovery of wood from harvesting and processing. For instance, if trees are felled properly, stumps are low and fewer logs are broken. </p>
<p><strong>3. Allow time to recover.</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119440">Sustaining timber yields</a> often requires leaving forests alone for longer between harvests (reducing harvest freqency) and/or limiting the amount that can be harvested per unit area. Harvest intensity (that is, the numbers of trees or volumes of timber harvested per unit areas) can be reduced by increasing the distance between harvestable trees or by increasing the minimum size of trees that can be felled. </p>
<p>Either restriction reduces short-term profits, but ensures there will be timber to harvest in the future. Fortunately, these changes also reduce carbon emissions from managed forests, for which there should be compensation from carbon market investors seeking to compensate for their own emissions. </p>
<p><strong>4. Protect young trees.</strong> If we protect and foster the growth of small trees, they will grow to a suitable size for the next harvest. This is especially important in forests that have been disturbed by previous logging. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121038">Liberating the future crop from woody vines</a> (lianas) is a relatively cheap way to augment future timber yields and double the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. </p>
<p><strong>5. Plant more trees.</strong> In areas that lack natural regeneration of commercial tree species, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.09.005">enrichment planting</a> can help. If these planted trees are regularly tended for several years, growth and carbon sequestration rates can be substantial.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial photo of logging in rainforest showing stark deforestation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562571/original/file-20231130-25-b2y5xh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forest management provides an alternative to deforestation and forest degradation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/deforestation-aerial-photo-logging-malaysia-rainforest-1408605185">Rich Carey, Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<h2>Managed forestry has multiple carbon benefits</h2>
<p>The carbon benefits of all five mechanisms described here are additional. That means they wouldn’t have happened in the absence of the intervention. </p>
<p>So carbon markets should support the transition away from exploitative timber mining once responsible forest management is accepted as a legitimate land use. </p>
<p>Managed forestry also creates jobs for professionals and supports a stable workforce. In contrast, carbon projects based on stopping logging run the risk of sending loggers elsewhere. </p>
<h2>From exploitation and degradation to forest management</h2>
<p>The long-awaited transition from tropical forest exploitation <a href="https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor/005766">to responsible forest management</a> requires support from governments, the private sector, and society as a whole. </p>
<p>Governments will need to enforce their laws. Failing to do so will starve their economies of tax revenue. Meanwhile the glut of illegal timber keeps log prices at a rock bottom low. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo in a tropical forest, looking up at the treetops against the sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562603/original/file-20231130-29-f47ae5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This forest near Gabon in the Congo Basin shows natural regeneration with a young tree growing to fill a gap left by logging.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudia Romero</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Forest industries need to recognise the benefits of investing in all aspects of forestry including the maintenance of productive timber stands. </p>
<p>Society also needs to support forestry by ensuring the supply of well-trained young foresters. Unfortunately, the common misconception of forest management as a synonym for forest degradation reduces the appeal of the profession to young environmentalists.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.5849/jof.15-018">closure of so many undergraduate forestry degrees</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/f14081644">outside of Brazil</a>, coupled with increased focus on plantations rather than natural forests, makes it hard to find trained and motivated people to support the transition to responsible forest management. But it will be worth the effort, because responsible forest management promises financial, environmental and social benefits. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/giant-old-trees-are-still-being-logged-in-tasmanian-forests-we-must-find-ways-of-better-protecting-them-211670">Giant old trees are still being logged in Tasmanian forests. We must find ways of better protecting them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis E Putz was funded to write this report by the US Agency for International Development and the US Forest Service International Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claudia Romero received funding from the United States Agency for International Development and the United States Forest Service International Program to complete this report. </span></em></p>We argue for an orderly transition from ‘timber mining’ to managed forestry in the tropics. Here’s a five-step plan to improve forest fates, with benefits for the climate, biodiversity and people.Francis E Putz, Research Professor, University of the Sunshine CoastClaudia Romero, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164072023-11-21T16:54:44Z2023-11-21T16:54:44ZTropical forest loss from growing rubber trade is more substantial than previously thought – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560146/original/file-20231117-28-el36oo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4193%2C2785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hevea brasiliensis is grown in the world's most biodiverse areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/worker-people-working-tapped-rubber-tree-229853572">dangdumrong/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over 4 million hectares of tree cover – an area equivalent to the size of Switzerland – may have been cleared to make space for rubber plantations since the 1990s. Out of all the rubber planted, 1 million hectares may have been established in <a href="https://www.keybiodiversityareas.org/">key biodiversity areas</a> – sites that contribute significantly to biodiversity in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems.</p>
<p>These are the findings of our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06642-z">recent research</a>, which mapped the conversion of land to rubber tree plantations across south-east Asia. The likely pace of forest loss that we found surpasses <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41">previous estimates</a>.</p>
<p>The global demand for natural rubber, which is found in thousands of products including vehicle and aeroplane tyres, is increasing. In <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">separate research</a>, published in July 2023, we estimated that between 2.7 million and 5.3 million additional hectares of plantation area could be needed by 2030 to fulfil this additional demand. This is a concern. Research has found that rubber plantations support <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fconl.12967&file=conl12967-sup-0001-SuppMat.pdf">nowhere near as much</a> biodiversity, nor do they contain as much carbon, as natural forests.</p>
<p>Most natural rubber is made by extracting latex – the liquid sap – from the <em>Hevea brasiliensis</em> tree in a process called “tapping”. As a tropical species, the places suitable for <em>Hevea brasiliensis</em> cultivation coincide with some of the world’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098222031006X">most biodiverse regions</a>. Thailand and Indonesia, for example, are the world’s <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">leading rubber producers</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rubber plantation farming area in the south of Thailand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560147/original/file-20231117-22-xe0hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rubber plantation in southern Thailand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rubber-plantation-farming-area-south-thailand-2271258833">JIMBO EKAPAT</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rubber’s impact on forests</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">reviewed</a> more than 100 case studies to understand what types of land are being converted to rubber. In many cases, rubber replaced natural forests. But we also noted instances of other plantation types and agricultural systems transitioning to rubber. </p>
<p>We then examined national statistics regarding the extent of rubber plantations and their productivity per hectare. Our findings revealed a global trend of expanding rubber areas in producer countries, coupled with static or declining yields. </p>
<p>Low yields are partly due to tapping less frequently in countries where prices are relatively low – though they are also probably caused by suboptimal tapping practices. As existing rubber stockpiles are eventually exhausted, prices should theoretically increase again, potentially leading to more frequent tapping of plantations that are currently not or only infrequently tapped. However, past trends suggest that more land will be established for rubber cultivation to meet the growing demand, rather than using existing plantation land more effectively. </p>
<p>Ivory Coast in west Africa emerged as a new hotspot for expanding rubber plantations. These plantations seem to be displacing cocoa <a href="https://www.fao.org/forestry/agroforestry/80338/en/">agroforests</a> (where trees or shrubs are grown around or among other crops or natural vegetation) in the region.</p>
<p>Using cutting-edge analysis of satellite data, which was based on the unique timing of rubber tree leaf drop compared to other tree cover, we more recently generated <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06642-z#data-availability">high-resolution maps</a> of rubber distribution and the associated deforestation. </p>
<p>Our mapping revealed Cambodia as a country of particular concern, with 40% of rubber plantations associated with deforestation. These plantations were often located within protected areas.</p>
<h2>Supporting livelihoods and economies</h2>
<p>Most rubber that is produced in Asia is grown by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03066150.2012.750605">smallholder farmers</a> – people who farm less than five hectares of land. Rubber production thus forms the basis of many regional economies and supports the livelihoods of millions. Producing rubber sustainably in existing plantations, and avoiding further plantation expansion, is a critical part of protecting forests and supporting people. </p>
<p>In June 2023, the EU adopted a new <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230414IPR80129/parliament-adopts-new-law-to-fight-global-deforestation">regulation</a> to curb the EU market’s impact on global deforestation. Alongside several other commodities, rubber is <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">covered by this legislation</a>. Any company looking to sell products containing these commodities on the EU market can only do so if suppliers can show that they were not sourced from land deforested after December 2020.</p>
<p>On the one hand, there is a risk that the new law may inadvertently marginalise rubber smallholders. Rubber is typically collected by middlemen and can change hands several times before reaching a processing facility. Smallholders will also largely be unaware of the new regulations and often may not have documentation showing their official land tenure. </p>
<p>Given the complexity of tracing smallholder rubber, larger tyre manufacturers and other rubber consumers may choose to source their rubber from industrial plantations that have the resources to prove that their rubber is compliant with the EU’s new regulation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A mechanic pushing a black tyre in a workshop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560148/original/file-20231117-29-qludbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rubber is found in thousands of products, including vehicle and aeroplane tyres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-mechanic-hands-pushing-black-tire-779811436">Standret/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Opportunities for farmers</h2>
<p>But, accompanied by the need to trace rubber supply, the new regulation could also offer opportunities to help smallholders improve their rubber production methods. Our <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12967">research</a> from July 2023 found that reducing land availability for rubber expansion could indirectly drive increases in production efficiency on existing land. </p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017312669?via%3Dihub">evidence</a> that this is taking place in Mato Grosso – the largest soy and cattle-producing state in Brazil. Double cropping (where several crops are planted in the same area and in the same crop year) rates were significantly higher in regions where forest conservation policies were more stringent.</p>
<p>Natural rubber should not be demonised. Rubber plantations have the potential to sequester carbon and continue contributing to the long-term <a href="https://research.bangor.ac.uk/portal/files/40328214/Mighty_Earth_Agroforestry_Rubber_Report_May_2021.pdf">wellbeing</a> of smallholder farmers. </p>
<p>There is also evidence suggesting that rubber agroforests can support at least some biodiversity. In a <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13530">study</a> published in 2019, we found a higher abundance of butterflies in rubber agroforests compared to monocultures. The presence of birds also increased in tandem with the height of herbaceous vegetation within rubber plots.</p>
<p>But this does not mean that the growing demand for natural rubber should be accepted as inevitable. A clear approach to reducing the adverse effects of rubber on forests and biodiversity is to curb our use of cars, especially in more developed regions where efficient public transport systems are, or can be, established. This would not only address carbon emissions from fossil fuels but would also reduce demand for rubber.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216407/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Warren-Thomas receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council/UK Research and Innovation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antje Ahrends receives funding from the UK Research and Innovation’s Global Challenges Research Fund through the Trade, Development and the Environment Hub project (ES/S008160/1) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/X016285/1). The Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh is also supported by the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment.</span></em></p>Rubber plantations are replacing forests, particularly in tropical regions.Eleanor Warren-Thomas, Lecturer in Conservation and Forestry, Bangor UniversityAntje Ahrends, Head of Genetics and Conservation, Royal Botanic Garden EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2150912023-11-16T17:39:18Z2023-11-16T17:39:18ZBig cats eat more monkeys in a damaged tropical forest – and this could threaten their survival<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559973/original/file-20231116-22-j4ct25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5993%2C4000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A jaguar in the jungle of southern Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/jaguar-jungle-southern-mexico-2205608235">Mardoz/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Monkeys are not usually a popular menu item for big cats. Primates are, after all, hard to catch: living in the canopies of large trees and rarely coming down to the ground. Jaguar and puma have varied diets and will normally hunt the species that are most common where they live, such as deer, peccary (a type of wild pig) and armadillo.</p>
<p>But jaguar and puma living in southern Mexican forests with a high human footprint (where wood and other resources are regularly harvested and there are large clearings for farms or expanding settlements) seem to be changing their feeding preferences to include more monkeys, according to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/btp.13253">new research</a>.</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bart-Harmsen/publication/227643029_The_food_habits_of_jaguars_and_pumas_across_a_gradient_of_human_disturbance/links/5a4b45c2a6fdcce1972198fa/The-food-habits-of-jaguars-and-pumas-across-a-gradient-of-human-disturbance.pdf">studies</a> have already found that when there is less of their usual prey around, big cats turn to alternatives. The changes in jaguar and puma diets that my colleagues and I recorded may indicate that the populations of these normal prey are shrinking, or that something in the environment has changed to make catching and eating primates easier. </p>
<p>This change in the diet of large cats could make the disappearance of primate populations in tropical forests like this one in southern Mexico more likely. This would, in turn, make the disappearance of large cats themselves more likely due to a lack of food, threatening the stability of an entire ecosystem.</p>
<h2>On the trail of big cats</h2>
<p>When forests are cut down or altered by loggers and hunters, primates are particularly affected, as many species depend on tall trees for food, shelter and to chart paths through the forest. Globally, more than 60% of primate species are <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1600946">threatened with extinction</a>.</p>
<p>These changes to forests have also put large predators at risk. Understanding what is happening in these areas can inform more effective conservation measures, which may prevent species from disappearing.</p>
<p>The Uxpanapa valley in southeastern Mexico is one of the last relicts of tall evergreen forest in the country, and is classified as <a href="https://fundacioncarlosslim.org/conoce-trabajo-la-alianza-wwf-fundacion-carlos-slim-en-selva-zoque/">one of the most biodiverse</a> areas in both Mexico and the world. It is home to jaguar, puma and many other species, including two endangered primates: howler and spider monkeys.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black monkey in a tropical forest canopy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559978/original/file-20231116-29-ab8f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559978/original/file-20231116-29-ab8f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559978/original/file-20231116-29-ab8f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559978/original/file-20231116-29-ab8f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559978/original/file-20231116-29-ab8f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559978/original/file-20231116-29-ab8f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559978/original/file-20231116-29-ab8f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Howler monkeys are native to South and Central American forests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mantled-howler-monkey-alouatta-palliata-beautiful-2301090257">David Havel/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I led a research team that studied the distribution of primates in the Uxpanapa Valley for the first time. We recorded the number of primates and where they were found, as well as the type of forest they preferred.</p>
<p>Another team looked for large cats with the help of a dog which could detect their faeces, otherwise known as scat. Scat was collected to obtain DNA and determine the species that left it, whether it had any parasites, and what its diet was like. The team found out what prey these large cats were eating by using microscopes to study the hairs left in each scat. Special identification guides can link each kind of animal to its hair – each has a particular colour, pattern and shape.</p>
<p>Large carnivores maintain biodiversity and the functioning of an ecosystem by controlling populations of certain species – for example, herbivores that might otherwise harm trees or prevent forests regrowing. The presence of such predators can indicate an ecosystem’s health. Knowing what top predators are eating can tell us even more about how an ecosystem is functioning.</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>When we combined the data and information we collected, we began to understand that something out of the ordinary was happening.</p>
<p>Primates were the most frequent prey found in jaguar and puma scats, making up nearly 35% of the remains. Primate remains were also more likely to be found in scats collected from areas with less forest. Spider monkey remains, for example, were more likely to be found in scats collected in areas with more villages, and in forest that was regrowing after being disturbed.</p>
<p>A possible explanation is that where there are more villages, it is likely that there is more hunting and tree-cutting taking place. Where there is more hunting, the prey that jaguar and puma usually prefer might not be as plentiful. And regrowing forests do not offer primates the same protection as tall, untouched forests. These two factors may explain why large cats are eating spider monkeys more often here.</p>
<p>Jaguar and puma will usually eat the prey that is more abundant. If their preferred prey is scarce, they will hunt the species they encounter most. Similar to what we observed with spider monkeys, in areas where there was less tall forest, howler monkey remains were more likely than non-primate prey to be found in the scats, possibly as big cats found it easier to reach primates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pile of logs in a deforested Mexican plain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559982/original/file-20231116-25-9rnkm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559982/original/file-20231116-25-9rnkm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559982/original/file-20231116-25-9rnkm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559982/original/file-20231116-25-9rnkm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559982/original/file-20231116-25-9rnkm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559982/original/file-20231116-25-9rnkm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559982/original/file-20231116-25-9rnkm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Logging robs monkeys of hiding places from predators.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/illegal-logging-indigenous-communities-chiapas-mexico-1710243550">Eduardo Cota/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Less tree cover and overhunting of other prey (combined with general habitat loss) could explain the high rates of primate predation we discovered. Nevertheless, we need to continue monitoring these sites to fully understand these changes in large cat diets.</p>
<p>Our results highlight the importance of maintaining tall forest cover to ensure primates and other forest-dependent species can survive. They also raise the urgent need for conservation, before the negative effects of human activities on both primate and large cat populations become irreversible, and the ecosystems they live in are lost.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aralisa Shedden received funding from the Mexican Council for Research (CONACyT).</span></em></p>The results could indicate populations of more typical prey in southern Mexico are shrinking.Aralisa Shedden, Postdoctoral Researcher in Conservation, Bournemouth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118622023-08-24T18:02:24Z2023-08-24T18:02:24Z‘Worthless’ forest carbon offsets risk exacerbating climate change<p>In early 2023, the Guardian published an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe">article</a> suggesting that more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets are worthless. These credits are essentially a promise to protect forests and can be bought as a way to “offset” emissions elsewhere. Verra, the largest certifier of these offset credits, said the claims were “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe">absolutely incorrect</a>” but the story still shook confidence in the <a href="https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/publications/state-of-the-voluntary-carbon-markets-2022/">billion-dollar market</a>. Soon after, Verra’s CEO <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/23/ceo-of-worlds-biggest-carbon-credit-provider-says-he-is-resigning">stood down</a>. </p>
<p>The claims in the Guardian article rested heavily on analysis which had been published as a <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.03354">preprint</a> (before peer review). Now the research has been fully peer-reviewed and is published in the journal <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade3535">Science</a>. It shows unequivocally that many projects which have sold what are known as REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation) credits have failed to reduce deforestation.</p>
<p>REDD+ projects aim to slow deforestation (for example, by supporting farmers to change their practices). They quantify the carbon saved through reducing deforestation relative to what would have happened without the project, and sell these emission reductions as credits. </p>
<p>Such REDD+ credits are widely used to “offset” (that is, cancel out) emissions from companies (who may use them to make claims that their operations are carbon neutral) or by people concerned about their carbon footprint. For example, if you were planning to fly from London to New York you might consider buying REDD+ credits that promise to <a href="https://www.5dnetzero.co.uk/product-category/projects/?gclid=CjwKCAjwivemBhBhEiwAJxNWN7yHQYW7T0ZBW6L4oG-0vtLQwFZO8SivBe65xy6fIM7gQhjgCmgfNBoCMgkQAvD_BwE">conserve rainforest in the Congo Basin</a> (with added benefits for forest elephants and bonobos). Offsetting your return flight would appear to cost a very affordable <a href="https://www.5dnetzero.co.uk/product-category/projects/?gclid=CjwKCAjwivemBhBhEiwAJxNWN7yHQYW7T0ZBW6L4oG-0vtLQwFZO8SivBe65xy6fIM7gQhjgCmgfNBoCMgkQAvD_BwE">£16.44</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Smiling bonobo eats plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544557/original/file-20230824-27-1cya5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benefits for bonobos?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wirestock Creators / shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>However, while previous <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cobi.13970">analysis showed</a> that some REDD+ projects have contributed to slowing deforestation and forest degradation, the central finding from the new study is that many projects have slowed deforestation much less than they have claimed and, consequently, have <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj6951">promised greater carbon savings</a> than they have delivered. So that guilt-free flight to New York probably isn’t carbon neutral after all.</p>
<p>The finding that many REDD+ carbon credits have not delivered forest conservation is extremely worrying to anyone who cares about the future of tropical forests. We spoke to Sven Wunder, a forest economist and a co-author of the new study. He told us that: “To tackle climate change, tropical deforestation must be stopped. Forests also matter for other reasons: losing forests will result in loss of species, and will affect regional rainfall patterns. Despite the evidence that REDD+ has not been delivering additional conservation, we cannot afford to give up.”</p>
<h2>Deforestation could simply move elsewhere</h2>
<p>Carbon credits also face other challenges, one of the biggest being “leakage” or displacement of deforestation. Leakage may occur because the people who were cutting down the forest simply relocate to a different area. Alternatively, demand for food or timber that was fuelling deforestation in one place may be met by deforestation elsewhere – perhaps on the other side of the world. Another problem is ensuring that the forests are protected in perpetuity so that reduced deforestation represents <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/engage/coe/article-details/64aed5749ea64cc167e7422d">permanent removal</a> of carbon from the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tree stumps in deforested area" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544567/original/file-20230824-23-zkdg4d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For credits to be worthwhile, forests must be protected forever.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eleanor Warren-Thomas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Addressing these challenges is vital because selling carbon credits is an important source of finance for forest conservation. It is not too dramatic to say that unreliable REDD+ credits <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh3426">directly threaten forests</a>. </p>
<p>However, this is an active research area and new approaches are increasingly available. Andrew Balmford is a professor of conservation science at the University of Cambridge who is actively developing methods to improve the credibility of forest carbon markets. He says the new study raises some important concerns but that more <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/engage/coe/article-details/6409c345cc600523a3e778ae">robust and transparent</a> methods have been developed. Deploying these new methods, he told us, is “an urgent priority”. </p>
<p>Change is also needed to how certification operates. At present, there are incentives for verifiers to inflate estimates of the amount of deforestation that would have happened without the project, and therefore the number of credits that can be issued. Sven Wunder explains: “We need to move beyond vested interest towards independent governance employing scientifically informed, cutting-edge methods.”</p>
<h2>Reasons to be cautious</h2>
<p>Even if these problems can be solved, there are still reasons to be cautious about the role of carbon offsets in combating climate change. First, there is the risk that offsetting actually increases emissions because people or companies <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/bse.2785">might feel more comfortable</a> emitting carbon if they believe they can undo any damage by simply buying carbon credits. For this reason, <a href="https://vcmintegrity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/VCMI-Claims-Code-of-Practice.pdf">some argue</a> that offsets must only ever be a last resort, after all non-essential emissions have been cut (the problem being of course: who decides which emissions are essential?). </p>
<p>Second, keeping warming within 2°C will require most deforestation to be stopped and major reductions in fossil fuel emissions. There is a limit to which one <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SPM.pdf">can be used</a> to balance out the other.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cows in pasture without forested mountain in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544559/original/file-20230824-9071-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cows in DR Congo: REDD+ projects mustn’t harm local farmers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kiki Dohmeier / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, there are serious equity concerns with some forest carbon offsets. If forest conservation is achieved by stopping farmers in low-income countries from clearing land for agriculture, REDD+ may <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/5106/">exacerbate poverty</a>: your long haul flight would come at the expense of others being able to feed their families.</p>
<p>We don’t know how much it would cost to achieve genuinely additional offsets which avoid leakage and ensure equity but it is likely to be considerably more expensive than forest carbon credits currently sell for. A higher price would reduce the perception that offsetting is an easy option and should encourage more focus on reducing emissions.</p>
<p>So, should you buy those cheap forest carbon offsets when taking a flight? Unfortunately, there’s currently little evidence that doing so will really make your journey carbon neutral. If you want to contribute to tackling climate change, perhaps the only real option is to not take the flight.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia P G Jones receives funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Darwin Initiative). She has in the past been funded by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, and the Natural Environment Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neal Hockley receives funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Darwin Initiative) and has received funding from the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and UK Research Councils.</span></em></p>We need to urgently reform the way forest conservation is measured and sold as a way to offset emissions.Julia P G Jones, Professor of Conservation Science, Bangor UniversityNeal Hockley, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Economics & Policy, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2026292023-07-11T05:39:42Z2023-07-11T05:39:42ZIndonesia is suppressing environmental research it doesn’t like. That poses real risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536711/original/file-20230711-15-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C508%2C4613%2C3319&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In September last year, several leading scientists were effectively banned from further research in Indonesia’s vast tropical forests, where most had been working for decades. </p>
<p>Their sin? In large part, producing research suggesting the Bornean orangutan was in trouble – and following it up with an <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/09/14/orangutan-conservation-needs-agreement-on-data-and-trends.html">opinion piece</a> which countered the <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/09/26/forestry-ministry-responds.html">government’s assertion</a> the species was rebounding. </p>
<p>These researchers clearly angered someone powerful. Soon, the influential environment and forestry ministry circulated a letter accusing the scientists of writing with “negative intentions” that could “discredit” the government. They were to be <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/10/as-indonesia-paints-rosy-picture-for-orangutans-scientists-ask-wheres-the-data/">barred from the forests</a>. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I have <a href="https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(23)00550-X">published new research</a> exploring the risks of this response from Indonesia’s government.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="borneo deforestation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536710/original/file-20230711-19-tn2pnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forests are still falling in Indonesia, but the rates of loss have declined.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Worrying — and surprising</h2>
<p>Indonesia’s reaction is a worrying sign. The island nation has a fast-growing population and economy, as well as spectacular biodiversity and one of the world’s <a href="https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/countries.html">largest areas</a> of tropical forests. But its growing population and economy have been putting pressure on the natural world <a href="https://rainforests.mongabay.com/deforestation/2000/Indonesia.htm">for decades</a>.</p>
<p>Indonesia’s combativeness is also surprising. In recent years, forest destruction has declined by two-thirds, following <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-cites-deforestation-decline-stricter-controls-2023-06-26/">government clamp-downs</a> on illegal logging, forest burning and felling for plantations. This is a remarkable achievement.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/research-reveals-shocking-detail-on-how-australias-environmental-scientists-are-being-silenced-140026">Research reveals shocking detail on how Australia's environmental scientists are being silenced</a>
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<p>So why the recent crackdown on the researchers? It’s likely to be precisely because Indonesia has been doing better environmentally. Its leaders want their progress to be recognised, not criticised. </p>
<p>But while it’s important scientists are fair – and do recognise welcome progress when it happens – it’s even more important governments let scientists do their work, even if the results we report are not what they want to hear. </p>
<p>This isn’t the first time Indonesia has tried to silence environmental scientists. Three years ago, researcher David Gaveau was deported from Indonesia after <a href="https://theconversation.com/alternative-data-setting-the-record-straight-on-the-scale-of-indonesias-2019-fires-173593">publishing estimates</a> of wildfire extent much larger than those reported by the government. </p>
<p>For local and overseas researchers in Indonesia, the pressure is clear. Many privately say to us and other colleagues that they feel coerced to publish good news, or at least avoid bad news. </p>
<h2>Governments must be open to warranted criticism</h2>
<p>Conservationists and researchers have long run up against suppression or <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2022/09/29/2213088/philippines-still-deadliest-country-asia-environmentalists-global-witness#:%7E:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20by,%2C%20and%20Nicaragua%20(15).">even violence</a> in developing nations with large forest tracts, <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/global-witness-reports-227-land-and-environmental-activists-murdered-single-year-worst-figure-record/">such as</a> Brazil, Colombia, the Philippines and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. </p>
<p>That’s because there’s huge pressure on these forests. Demand for economic development often leads to exploitation of remaining forests. </p>
<p>While Indonesia’s forest management is <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN/?category=summary&location=WyJjb3VudHJ5IiwiSUROIl0%3D&map=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%3D%3D&showMap=true">improving in some ways</a> with deforestation clampdowns, there are still very real areas of concern. </p>
<p>In recent decades, huge swathes of forest have been felled and converted into palm oil and wood-pulp plantations. The rush for critical minerals underpinning the green transition, such as nickel, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2023/06/red-floods-near-giant-indonesia-nickel-mine-blight-farms-and-fishing-grounds/">are damaging</a> fisheries and rivers. </p>
<p>And then there are the roads, which are expanding dramatically across Indonesia. A road is a spike driven into the natural world. Once a road is in place, the forest opens up like a flayed fish. Bulldozers, chainsaws and mining equipment can come in. It’s a <a href="https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(09)00206-7?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0169534709002067%3Fshowall%3Dtrue">devastating dynamic</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="road palm oil" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536713/original/file-20230711-23-a38esp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When roads push into forests, it’s far easier to convert them to plantations or log them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/alternative-data-setting-the-record-straight-on-the-scale-of-indonesias-2019-fires-173593">Alternative data: setting the record straight on the scale of Indonesia’s 2019 fires</a>
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<hr>
<p>In the past few decades, Indonesia has been plagued by <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/12/indonesias-five-most-consequential-environmental-stories-of-2020/">environmental catastrophes</a>, from massive forest loss to lethal smoke plumes from vegetation burning. </p>
<p>To avoid being blindsided by future environmental catastrophes, Indonesia needs a dynamic and open scientific community – one that isn’t being pressured to toe the government’s line.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-indonesias-election-puts-global-biodiversity-at-stake-with-an-impending-war-on-palm-oil-115468">How Indonesia's election puts global biodiversity at stake with an impending war on palm oil</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Laurance receives funding various scientific and philanthropic organisations. He is the director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science at James Cook University in Cairns, Australia. He also founded and directs ALERT -- the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers & Thinkers -- a science and conservation advocacy group.</span></em></p>In recent years, Indonesia has slashed the rate of deforestation. That’s why this new crackdown on researchers is so surprising.Bill Laurance, Distinguished Research Professor and Australian Laureate, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011362023-03-08T17:53:06Z2023-03-08T17:53:06ZRainforests pump water round the tropics – but the pulse of this heart is weakening<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514181/original/file-20230308-18-wrt3cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6720%2C4476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-fog-touching-sunlight-covered-2185967209">Jack-Sooksan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tropical forests are often referred to as the “lungs of the world”, describing the way their trees exchange gases with the atmosphere. By “breathing in” carbon dioxide and “breathing out” oxygen during photosynthesis, tropical forests remove about <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1201609">15%</a> of man-made carbon emissions and help to slow climate change. </p>
<p>This is not the only way tropical forests influence the climate, however. Anyone who has walked through a woodland on a hot day will know that trees have an immediate cooling effect. As well as shading the ground, trees draw water up from the soil and release it through tiny holes in their leaves called stomata. By doing this, trees cool their environment the same way evaporating sweat cools our bodies. </p>
<p>By pumping water from the land into the air, tropical forests also function like a heart. Water sucked up by tree roots is pumped back into the atmosphere where it forms clouds which eventually release the water as rain to be reabsorbed by trees. This cycle <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0177-y">can occur multiple times</a> as air moves over large forests. In fact, it’s critical to the survival of forests situated far from the ocean. In the Amazon and Congo river basins, somewhere between a <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL095136">quarter and a half</a> of all rainfall comes from moisture pumped from the forest itself. This recycling of moisture helps to maintain the large amounts of rainfall tropical forests need.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Amazon rainforest seen from a tower observatory." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514177/original/file-20230308-26-ivbp2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514177/original/file-20230308-26-ivbp2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514177/original/file-20230308-26-ivbp2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514177/original/file-20230308-26-ivbp2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514177/original/file-20230308-26-ivbp2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514177/original/file-20230308-26-ivbp2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514177/original/file-20230308-26-ivbp2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainforests are filled with trees drawing water from the earth to the air.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jess Baker</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The environmental scientist Antonio Nobre was the first to describe how the rainforest can function like a heart. In the <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/controversial-russian-theory-claims-forests-don-t-just-make-rain-they-make-wind">biotic pump theory</a>, conceived by physicists Anastassia Makarieva and the late Victor Gorshkov, forests pump moisture-laden air currents deep into the interior of continents, helping to govern patterns of wind and rain far away.</p>
<p>Cutting down trees stops this transfer of water between the earth and the air and causes the surrounding area to heat up. People living near tropical forests are well aware of this effect, and scientists have since proved it using ground and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac8083">satellite</a> temperature measurements.</p>
<h2>The world’s heartbeat is slowing down</h2>
<p>Scientists have long understood the theory linking deforestation and decreasing rainfall. Frustratingly, the evidence to prove it has been harder to pin down. Rainfall varies so much from year to year and between regions that it has been challenging to conclusively demonstrate the impact of deforestation. </p>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05690-1">study</a>, we used satellite measurements to investigate whether rainfall patterns changed after tropical forests were cleared. By comparing the rainfall over deforested regions with that over neighbouring forest we were able to isolate the impacts of forest loss. We found rainfall reduced after deforestation across all tropical regions, including the Amazon, Congo and in Southeast Asia. As the area of cleared forest expanded, rainfall decreased by a larger amount. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-deforestation-has-a-devastating-heating-impact-on-the-local-climate-new-study-122914">Amazon fires: deforestation has a devastating heating impact on the local climate – new study</a>
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</em>
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<p>Our work suggests that so much tropical forest has been cleared globally over the past two decades that the tropical forest heartbeat has started to slow, resulting in less rainfall in the surrounding regions. We estimate that if tropical forests continue to be cleared, rainfall could decrease by an additional 10% by 2100 over the most heavily deforested regions. If enough forests are cleared and rainfall declines too much, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-amazon-rainforest-on-the-verge-of-collapse-178580">tipping point</a> could be reached where there is not enough rain to sustain the remaining forests.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fluffy clouds over distant forest at dusk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514010/original/file-20230307-22-e1jbsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514010/original/file-20230307-22-e1jbsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514010/original/file-20230307-22-e1jbsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514010/original/file-20230307-22-e1jbsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514010/original/file-20230307-22-e1jbsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514010/original/file-20230307-22-e1jbsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514010/original/file-20230307-22-e1jbsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deforestation threatens to break the tropical forest water pump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Callum Smith</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to value tropical forests</h2>
<p>Tropical nations are tasked with conserving their forests at the same time as developing their economies. Conservation is often perceived as a trade-off, but the local and regional climate benefits of healthy forests can reduce <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00275-8">heat stress</a>, boost <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22840-7">crop yields</a> and maintain stable water flows to predictably generate <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0492-y">hydroelectricity</a>. It can make more economic sense to protect forests rather than clear them. </p>
<p>If deforestation of the Amazon continues unabated, reductions in rainfall would cut hydropower production in the region to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1215331110">25%</a> of its potential. Another recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22840-7">study</a> showed that reducing deforestation in the Amazon to sustain rainfall could prevent agricultural losses of US$1 billion annually. </p>
<p>As the crucial role of tropical forests in maintaining a cooler and wetter climate becomes better understood, the incentive to conserve them will grow.</p>
<p><em>This article was update on March 21 2023 to credit the work of Anastassia Makarieva, Victor Gorshkov and Antonio Nobre in developing and articulating the biotic pump theory.</em></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Callum Smith receives funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (DECAF project, grant agreement no. 771492) and the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominick Spracklen receives funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (DECAF project, grant agreement no. 771492) and the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jess Baker receives funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (DECAF project, grant agreement no. 771492) and the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil</span></em></p>Calling the Amazon “the lungs of the world” overlooks the forest’s vital role in the water cycle.Callum Smith, PhD Candidate in Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions, University of LeedsDominick Spracklen, Professor of Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions, University of LeedsJess Baker, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Tropical Climate, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1986252023-02-09T06:07:01Z2023-02-09T06:07:01ZGlobal supply chains are devouring what’s left of Earth’s unspoilt forests<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508906/original/file-20230208-27-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/timber-export-import-loading-on-cargo-1829908331">Dawid K Photography/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While farming continues to drive deforestation around the world, <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(22)00634-0?utm_campaign=Press%20Package&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=241473130&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_uESE6jJQx2vkMNsMr6ur0GhXSpYfLFyYjP07bM3yHLEkqJiRmwvo27wgourVM-4OZ_JLFRmmLTr_9XBeCj2BiG42NxfstdLoRxQHmhRvRk0GaxUM&utm_content=241473130&utm_source=hs_email">60%</a> of the destruction of Earth’s large, intact forests is caused by other forces. In particular, our research shows that more than one-third of this destruction can be blamed on the production of commodities for export, particularly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837721000478">timber</a>, minerals and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261919309638">oil and gas</a>.</p>
<p>Increasing global demand for these commodities, which are often exported through globe-spanning supply chains, explains much of the ongoing removal, degradation and fragmentation of intact forests in a handful of countries including Brazil, Canada, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia.</p>
<p>We define intact forest landscapes (IFLs) as seamless mosaics of forest and related habitats bigger than 500km² where there is no detectable sign of activities such as logging, mining or energy extraction. Although IFLs made up 20% of the world’s remaining tropical forest in 2020, they stored 40% of all the carbon held in these habitats. Since 2000, the global extent of IFLs has shrunk by 7.2%, a loss of 1.5 million km² – more than quadruple the area of Germany.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A hazy forest canopy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508908/original/file-20230208-23-8h76xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508908/original/file-20230208-23-8h76xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508908/original/file-20230208-23-8h76xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508908/original/file-20230208-23-8h76xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508908/original/file-20230208-23-8h76xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508908/original/file-20230208-23-8h76xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508908/original/file-20230208-23-8h76xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intact forests are havens for biodiversity and colossal carbon sinks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/healthy-deciduous-coniferous-trees-early-autumn-489395818">Sivivolk/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We integrated economic models with a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.1600821">global dataset</a> on IFL loss to better understand the extraction and export of commodities in the 2014 world economy. We found that the commodities driving the lion’s share of forest loss were primarily extracted from Russia, Canada and tropical regions to the EU, US and China. More than 60% of IFL loss was related to the consumption of a wide range of non-agricultural products including paper, metals and other highly processed products. </p>
<p>These causes of forest loss are more obscure to consumers than traditional food and forest products. For example, it is widely understood that beef production drives deforestation in the Amazon. It is less well known that the manufacture of office furniture involves timber and metals acquired at the expense of the world’s dwindling intact forests. Even the power in your home may be derived from oil and gas associated with IFL loss. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wooden desk in an office." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508909/original/file-20230208-25-izfcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508909/original/file-20230208-25-izfcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508909/original/file-20230208-25-izfcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508909/original/file-20230208-25-izfcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508909/original/file-20230208-25-izfcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508909/original/file-20230208-25-izfcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508909/original/file-20230208-25-izfcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The origins of the products we buy aren’t always clear.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wooden-work-desk-laptop-documents-books-1716833923">Fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, adopting a plant-based diet will not target all of the big drivers of forest loss. Governments and businesses improving the transparency and traceability of the supply chains they govern could kickstart the phasing out of other destructive products.</p>
<h2>Forest loss and supply chains</h2>
<p>Forest scientists and campaigners tend to focus their attention on the wholesale conversion of forests into livestock pasture or cropland. But even the intrusion of logging and mining into relatively small areas can <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1600821">degrade and fragment</a> a forest, greatly damaging the ecosystem’s health and accelerating its destruction by making it easier for people to access what remains. </p>
<p>The establishment of roads, exploration trails and electricity transmission lines often <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abb3021">precedes</a> the complete destruction of forests. Mining and the extraction of oil and gas is second only to agriculture in destroying IFLs – and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01026-5">the loss</a> of stored carbon which results from forest degradation has exceeded that from deforestation (the complete removal of forest) in the Brazilian Amazon.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite image of a forest landscape broken up crops." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508914/original/file-20230208-13-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508914/original/file-20230208-13-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508914/original/file-20230208-13-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508914/original/file-20230208-13-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508914/original/file-20230208-13-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508914/original/file-20230208-13-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508914/original/file-20230208-13-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Roads can connect extraction sites and allow commodity production to expand into forests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-resolution-satellite-image-showing-forest-1778822900">ASVMAGZ/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Global supply chains enable countries to avoid destroying forests within their own borders by importing finished products from overseas. How countries decide to use their land is no longer simply determined by demand for products within the country.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837721000478">International trade</a> and surging global consumption of land-based products plays a far bigger role. For example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12417">Russia</a> produces lots of wood for countries with few forests and for strictly regulated regions such as EU member states.</p>
<p>Revealing the ties between regional IFL loss and the products people buy in other countries shows how global supply chains of various commodities influence forest ecosystems worldwide. Considering the exceptional value of IFLs to conservation, this perspective can also expose the forces driving carbon emissions and biodiversity loss.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than 60% of global intact forest loss is unrelated to farming, our research showsSiyi Kan, Research Fellow in Emission and Trade Analysis, UCLBin Chen, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Engineering, Fudan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1959642023-01-19T14:10:40Z2023-01-19T14:10:40ZClimate change is threatening Madagascar’s famous forests – our study shows how serious it is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504015/original/file-20230111-24-b9ohm3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C4%2C2991%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Urgent action is needed to protect Madagascar's forests. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/forest-guides-armed-with-paddles-or-bows-and-arrows-patrol-news-photo/1137862621?phrase=madagascar%20forests&adppopup=true">Rijasolo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global climate change doesn’t only cause the melting of polar ice caps, rising sea levels and extreme weather events. It also has a <a href="https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/biodiversity/climate-change-and-biodiversity/">direct effect</a> on many tropical habitats and the animals and plants that inhabit them. As fossil fuel emissions continue to drive climate change, large areas of land are forecast to become much hotter and drier by the end of this century.</p>
<p>Many ecosystems, including tropical forests, wetlands, swamps and mangroves, will be unable to cope with these extreme climatic conditions. It is highly likely that the extent and condition of these ecosystems will decline. They will become more like deserts and savanna.</p>
<p>The island nation of Madagascar is of particular concern when it comes to climate change. Of Madagascar’s animal species, 85% cannot be found elsewhere on Earth. Of its plant species, 82% are unique to the island. Although a global biodiversity hotspot, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320718301125">Madagascar</a> has experienced the highest rates of deforestation anywhere in the world. Over 80% of its original forest cover has already been cleared by humans. </p>
<p>This has resulted in large population declines in many species. For example, many species of lemurs (Madagascar’s flagship group of animals) have undergone rapid population decline, and over 95% of lemur species are now classified as threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) <a href="https://www.iucn.org/resources/conservation-tool/iucn-red-list-threatened-species">Red List</a>. </p>
<p>Drier conditions brought about by climate change have already resulted in <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2021/12/fires-in-madagascar-national-park-threaten-livelihoods-and-lemurs/">widespread bush fires</a> throughout Madagascar. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-58303792">Drought and famine are increasingly severe</a> for the people living in the far south and south-western regions of the island. </p>
<p>Madagascar’s future will likely depend profoundly on how swiftly and comprehensively humans deal with the current climate crisis.</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/ecs2.4017">Our study</a> investigated how future climate change is likely to affect four of Madagascar’s key forest habitat types. These <a href="https://www.wwf.mg/en/?2575441/The-precious-forests-of-Madagascar">four forest types</a> are the dry deciduous forests of the west, humid evergreen forests of the east, spiny bush forests of the arid south, and transitional forests of the north-west corner of the island. </p>
<p>Using computer-based modelling, we simulated how each forest type would respond to climate change from the current period up to the year 2080. The model used the known distribution of each forest type, and current and future climatic data. </p>
<p>We did this under two different conditions: a mitigation scenario, assuming human reliance on greenhouse gas reduces according to climate commitments already made; and an unmitigated scenario, assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at their current rate.</p>
<p>Our results suggest that unmitigated climate change will result in declines of Madagascar’s forests. The area of land covered by humid forest, the most extensive of the four forest types, is predicted to decrease by about 5.66%. Dry forest and spiny bush are also predicted to decline in response to unmitigated climate change. Transitional forest may actually <em>increase</em> by as much as 5.24%, but this gain will almost certainly come at the expense of other forest types. </p>
<p>We expected our model to show that mitigating climate change would result in net forest gain. Surprisingly, our results suggest entirely the opposite. Forest occurrence will decrease by up to 5.84%, even with efforts to mitigate climate change. This is because global temperatures are forecast to increase under both mitigated and unmitigated scenarios. </p>
<p>These predicted declines are in addition to the huge losses of forest already caused by ongoing deforestation throughout the island. </p>
<p>It looks as if the damage has already been done.</p>
<h2>Climate change, a major threat</h2>
<p>The results of our research highlight that climate change is indeed a major threat to Madagascar’s forests and likely other ecosystems worldwide. These findings are deeply concerning for the survival of Madagascar’s animals and plants, many of which depend entirely on forest habitat.</p>
<p>Not only will climate change decrease the size of existing forests, changes in temperature and rainfall will also affect the amount of fruit that trees produce.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Lemur on tree in the forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504017/original/file-20230111-17-plofod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Madagascar lemurs and other animal and plant species may become extinct if the forests disappear.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lemur-vari-sits-on-a-branch-near-the-vohibola-forest-news-photo/1137827558?phrase=madagascar%20forests&adppopup=true">Rijasolo/AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of Madagascar’s animals, such as its lemurs, rely heavily on fruit for food. Changes in fruit availability will have serious impact on the health, reproductive success and population growth of these animals. Some animals may be able to adapt to changes in climate and habitat, but others are very sensitive to such changes. They are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.1418">unlikely</a> to <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/03/20/how-climate-change-is-turning-once-green-madagascar-into-a-desert#:%7E:text=The%20once%20lush%20and%20green,and%20animals%20such%20as%20lemurs">survive in a hot, arid environment</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-wildlife-3-studies-that-reveal-the-devastating-toll-on-africas-animals-192412">Climate change and wildlife: 3 studies that reveal the devastating toll on Africa's animals</a>
</strong>
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<p>This will also have serious knock-on effects for human populations that depend on forests and animals for eco-tourism income. Approximately <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201002011027.html">75% of Madagascar’s population</a> depends on the forest and subsistence farming for survival, and the tourism sector contributes over US$600 million towards the island’s economy annually.</p>
<p>To ensure that Madagascar’s forests survive, immediate action is needed to end deforestation, protect the remaining patches of forest, replant and restore forests, and mitigate global carbon emissions. Otherwise these remarkable forests will eventually disappear, along with all the animals and plants that depend on them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is a huge threat to Madagascar’s four forest types – urgent action is needed to ensure they don’t disappear completely.Daniel Hending, Postdoctoral Research Assistant Animal Vibration Lab, University of OxfordMarc Holderied, Professor in Sensory Biology, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1894982022-09-13T14:15:49Z2022-09-13T14:15:49ZA dam built in the Amazon created thousands of ‘forest islands’ but they are too small to sustain most species<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484016/original/file-20220912-22-ljymqx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C3%2C2328%2C1164&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Balbina Dam (bottom right) created thousands of small islands.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Built in the 1980s, the Balbina Dam is one of dozens of large dams across rivers in the Amazon Basin. Such dams might leave behind seemingly green patches of forest, but our <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm0397">new research</a> has shown these disconnected patches of forest are no longer able to support thriving ecosystems. </p>
<p>The dam created one of the largest reservoirs in South America which stretches for almost 100km northwards through largely undisturbed rainforest. As this is a relatively hilly part of the Amazon basin, more than 3,500 islands formed as the reservoir filled up. What were once ridges or hilltops became insular forest patches. </p>
<p>For rainforest ecologists like us, the new landscape was an astonishing living lab – a way to test theories of what happens when a forest and its many animals are increasingly restricted to smaller and smaller patches. </p>
<p>We know that one of the main drivers of the ongoing biodiversity crisis is the loss of habitat and the fragmentation of the remaining areas. And we know that hydroelectric dams are one of the primary ways humans are disturbing these habitats, and that many developing countries (including those <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/10/brazils-amazon-dam-plans-ominous-warnings-of-future-destruction-commentary/">in the Amazon</a>) are due to build many more dams.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite view of forest island" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484035/original/file-20220912-22-40e1kl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The dam fragmented a huge area of forest into lots of tiny disconnected islands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the new landscape created after a dam fragments the forest, we expect species to disappear faster from smaller islands that simply can’t sustain viable populations. And we expect other factors to play a role, such as whether a species is resilient and can cope with its habitat being transformed. </p>
<p>That’s the theory, at least. And the Balbina Dam gave us a perfect chance to see it in practice. </p>
<h2>22 forest islands, 608 species</h2>
<p>Over the past decade or so, scientists from many different institutions have made huge efforts to investigate which species are vanishing and which are persisting in the Balbina reservoir. In this study, we were able to compile those efforts. </p>
<p>In particular, we studied 22 forest islands of varying sizes. We also looked at three nearby sites that were connected to the main forest and weren’t islands, which we considered as a baseline reflecting the scenario before damming. We recorded 608 species representing eight biological groups: medium and large mammals, small mammals (excluding bats), diurnal lizards (active during the daytime), understorey birds, frogs, dung beetles, orchid bees and trees.</p>
<p>Our results are now published in <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm0397">Science Advances</a>. We found that just a few larger islands held most of the diversity and had complete or nearly complete species assemblages. Meanwhile, smaller islands suffered. There, only more adaptable species like armadillos or rodent acouchis were able to survive for over three decades. These medium-sized animals can occupy relatively small areas. In contrast, bigger mammals such as tapirs and jaguars need more space, and might have vanished even from mid-size islands. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodent sits on forest floor" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484026/original/file-20220912-26-8ou2t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adaptable acouchi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martin Leber / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also found widespread and non-random cases of species going extinct on individual islands. Bigger species were generally more likely to go extinct, but this varied across different groups of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates. For instance, the largest species of orchid bees <em>Eulaema bombiformis</em> or <em>Eulaema meriana</em> were also widely distributed across the landscapes. This was also the case for large understorey bird species, whereas the pattern was opposite for frogs, with the smallest species being more widely distributed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tapir mother and baby stand in shallow water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484033/original/file-20220912-5769-v5wkwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tapirs: too big to survive on the smallest islands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Leuzinger / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the islands created by Balbina Dam, like those in other reservoirs containing forest islands elsewhere in lowland tropical forests, are relatively small. Indeed, 95% are smaller than a square kilometre. These islands proved able to sustain low levels of biodiversity, which further has major implications for ecosystem functioning. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People in canoe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484313/original/file-20220913-26-ica6sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the authors and her team in Balbina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ana Filipa Palmeirim</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the Amazon is famous for its extraordinary diversity, when we actually visited these islands we were struck by how they were dominated by species of animals and plants that were generalists and can be found elsewhere, with the forest-dependent specialist species found on the mainland and in the large islands almost nowhere to be seen. </p>
<p>Plans to develop hydropower across lowland tropical forests mean we expect this process to happen more and more in the aftermath of river damming. With this in mind, we recommend future hydroelectric projects should avoid flooding large expanses of forest and creating lots of small islands. This would minimise biodiversity loss and help ecosystems to keep functioning. Finally, biodiversity loss should be weighed alongside other environmental costs in future assessments of whether damming the world’s mega-diverse tropical rivers is really worth it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ana Filipa Palmeirim is a researcher at CIBIO - Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos at the University of Porto, Portugal. In addition, she is affiliated with the BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning. She currently receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 854248 (TROPIBIO project).
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carine Emer receives funding from FAPERJ Proc. N.º 210.374/2022. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Peres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows how hydropower is linked to extinctions.Ana Filipa Palmeirim, Postdoctoral Researcher, TROPIBIO Project, Universidade do PortoCarine Emer, Associated Researcher, Biology, Rio de Janeiro Botanical Garden Research InstituteCarlos Peres, Professor of Tropical Conservation Ecology, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1855352022-08-01T15:37:18Z2022-08-01T15:37:18ZArmed militias in Brazil hold enormous sway over fate of Amazon – and the global climate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473842/original/file-20220713-14-tne4yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5615%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/person-holding-old-vintage-gun-made-2034647177">Giuseppe Flandoli/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The future of the environmental agenda is on a collision course with Brazil’s violent past, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/18/brazil-police-arrest-third-suspect-in-killings-of-dom-phillips-and-bruno-pereira">the murders</a> of Brazilian indigenous expert Bruno Pereira and British journalist Dom Phillips have recently illustrated.</p>
<p>Three men who fished illegally in the Javari Valley, a part of the Brazilian Amazon near the Peruvian border, were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/22/three-charged-brazil-murder-dom-phillips-bruno-pereira">charged</a> with murdering Pereira and Phillips. Armed groups in lawless and remote areas of the Amazon are an understudied issue simply because they are so dangerous to research. But their activities are of global significance.</p>
<p>The Amazon’s rich biodiversity is fundamental to regulating the Earth’s water and oxygen levels and offsetting the man-made greenhouse gas emissions driving the climate crisis. But despite the importance of this region to the entire world, what goes on here remains out of sight and mind for most.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-carbon-sink-is-in-decline-as-trees-die-off-faster-38946">Amazon carbon sink is in decline as trees die off faster</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Those with the clearest view are Indigenous peoples in designated Indigenous territories, which comprise <a href="https://dev.amazoniasocioambiental.org/en/infographic/">22.1%</a> of the Brazilian Amazon, and natural protected areas which make up <a href="https://dev.amazoniasocioambiental.org/en/infographic/">a further 23.6%</a> and are nominally excluded from development by businesses and other forms of private enterprise. </p>
<p>Indigenous communities in unprotected forest (covering <a href="https://dev.amazoniasocioambiental.org/en/infographic/">56.3%</a> of the region) have seen the land and wildlife ravaged in recent decades by illegal fishing, deforestation and mineral extraction. Agribusinesses, mining companies, fishermen, land developers and loggers now <a href="https://igarape.org.br/en/the-ecosystem-of-environmental-crime-in-the-amazon-an-analysis-of-illicit-rainforest-economies-in-brazil/">advance</a> on the remaining Indigenous territories and protected areas to exploit untapped gold, mineral ores, fish and fertile soil. </p>
<p>On the campaign trail in 2018, Jair Bolsonaro <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election-landrights-deforestat-idUSKCN1N0241">claimed</a>: “Not one centimetre of land will be demarcated for Indigenous reserves”. Since entering office, his government has weakened Indigenous and environmental protections and scaled back enforcement. </p>
<p>It has also supported <a href="https://earthrefuge.org/brazil-490-2007-bill-indigenous-communities-land-rights/">bill 490/2007</a> which, if passed, would prevent Indigenous communities from obtaining legal recognition of traditional lands if they were not present on them before October 6 1988.</p>
<p>The bill would prevent Indigenous peoples from claiming additional land to expand designated territories and endow the government with the power to remove reserves it decided were no longer required for the cultural survival of an Indigenous group, or for purposes it deemed in the national interest, such as building military bases or roads.</p>
<p>While many condemn Bolsonaro, pinning the fate of the Amazon on the actions of one government overlooks a longer history of land-grabbing and resource-related violence in Brazil. As early as the 17th century, <em>bandeirantes</em> (slave-hunting expeditions commanded by Portuguese business elites) drove westwards in search of Indigenous peoples to enslave. Afterwards, they used their labour to extract and transport gold, silver and diamonds.</p>
<h2>Handmaidens of deforestation</h2>
<p>With the help of militias and mafias, land-grabbing and resource exploitation continues today in less overt forms. According to studies and reports from across Brazil, including the outskirts of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3636">Rio de Janeiro</a>, <a href="https://todahora.com/milicias-atuam-na-periferia-de-manaus/">Manaus</a> and <a href="https://www.periodicos.ufes.br/geografares/article/view/21542">Belém</a>, loose networks of security agents or people skilled with weapons, sometimes linked to the Brazilian state, use violence to ensure illicit activities like illegal logging go ahead despite the laws prohibiting them.</p>
<p>Those carrying out the violence do not tend to be the main economic beneficiaries of their work, however. According to the characterisation of Professor Vivieiros de Castro, a Brazilian anthropologist, they tend to be “<a href="https://www.academia.edu/12865947/O_recado_da_mata?fbclid=IwAR3c4Bg-kCaQZbL-yeApbxmdhS_Z2OnYIHiJyPO8O0nWH2VRc7WqoYO_HuY">miserable, violent and desperate men</a>” with few other options.</p>
<p>Elected officials tend to shrug off responsibility for these groups. Responding to recent questions about Pereira and Phillips, President Bolsonaro compared the state’s inability to <a href="https://oantagonista.uol.com.br/brasil/culpar-governo-por-caso-dom-e-bruno-e-insensatez-muito-grande-diz-bolsonaro/">safeguard lives in the Amazon</a> to entering a Rio de Janeiro favela, saying there was “no way to guarantee security to people going to the region”. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/34168/">studies</a> have shown how lawmakers and decision makers in government can be complicit in militia and mafia violence. One paper documented how <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10455752.2021.1980817">political rhetoric can undermine</a> the legitimacy of Indigenous claims to land. It also showed how the <a href="http://www.ascemanacional.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Dossie_Meio-Ambiente_Governo-Bolsonaro_Ingle%CC%82s_04-set-2020-1.pdf">replacement of specialised technical officials</a> in state environmental agencies with non-expert military agents can lead to the delay or obstruction of formal conflict resolution processes over land disputes.</p>
<p>As a result, those with economic interests in the Amazon are more likely to feel emboldened to use violence. The informal status of armed groups and their ability to mete out violence in remote areas is <a href="https://leiaarqueologia.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/davi_kopenawa___bruce_albert_-_a_queda_do_c_u.pdf">particularly useful</a> for businessmen and politicians keen to exploit the region’s material wealth.</p>
<p>Front Line Defenders, an Irish human rights organisation, claimed that <a href="https://www.frontlinedefenders.org/en/resource-publication/global-analysis-2021-0">27 people were killed</a> defending Indigenous and protected territories in Brazil in 2021 alone. Many more deaths are likely to go unreported.</p>
<p>Threats against environmental defenders are seemingly insurmountable when understood within Brazil’s protracted violent history, but their plight is the world’s. Scientists <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-amazon-rainforest-on-the-verge-of-collapse-178580">recently warned</a> that 75% of the tropical forest has become less resilient to stress, such as prolonged droughts, as the climate has warmed and dried since 2000. </p>
<p>Ushered in by violent men, this situation is exacerbated by illicit <a href="https://theconversation.com/gold-mining-leaves-deforested-amazon-land-barren-for-years-find-scientists-141639">mining</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-deforestation-has-a-devastating-heating-impact-on-the-local-climate-new-study-122914">logging</a> and fishing, with those far from the frontline benefiting the most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Pope receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>Militias mete out violence far from the centres of power – but their dirty work is politically useful.Nicholas Pope, Research Fellow, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1813872022-04-28T14:42:10Z2022-04-28T14:42:10ZForests in the tropics are critical for tackling climate change – yet the people showing how are being exploited<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460359/original/file-20220428-9923-spo5l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3761%2C2505&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-ancient-tropical-forest-mist-1197808021">Tanes Ngamsom/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nowhere is nature more vibrant than in Earth’s tropical forests. Thought to contain more than half of all <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.abc6228">plant</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0301-1">animal</a> species, the forests around Earth’s equator have sustained foragers and farmers since the earliest days of humanity. Today, their bounty underpins much of our globalised diet and holds vast potential for <a href="https://theconversation.com/dwindling-tropical-rainforests-mean-lost-medicines-yet-to-be-discovered-in-their-plants-126578">new and existing medicine</a>. Those that remain lock up <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2035-0">billions of tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide each year, providing the best natural solution for climate change. There is no credible path to net zero emissions in which tropical lands are ignored.</p>
<p>Nations are clamouring for information on how much carbon tropical forests can keep out of a rapidly warming atmosphere to help limit global warming to well below 2°C. The best way to study these forests is through long-term measurements taken in carefully defined plots, one tree at a time, year-after-year. These plots tell us what species are present and need help, which forests store the most carbon and grow fastest and which trees excel at resisting heat and producing timber.</p>
<p>Far from the laboratories and capital cities where forests are studied and legislated upon, tropical people gather the data that forms the basis of our knowledge about these vital ecosystems. Conventional wisdom might suggest that making all their data freely accessible is egalitarian. But for the people measuring tropical forest species and carbon, offering the fruits of their labour without fair investment won’t reduce inequalities – it will increase them. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person in a harness ascends the trunk of a tropical tree." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460299/original/file-20220428-12-bzy2dn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Colombian colleague measures a giant Dipteryx tree in the Chocó rainforest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zorayda Restrepo Correa</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s because those gathering the data in tropical forests are extraordinarily disadvantaged compared to the researchers and policymakers who use it. Field workers can put their lives at risk to expand the world’s understanding of one of its best bulwarks against climate change and its biggest repository of biodiversity. For this, they receive scant protection and meagre compensation.</p>
<p>Valuing these workers is essential to make the most of what nature can offer to tackle biodiversity loss and the climate crisis. For example, tropical forests have an unparalleled ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. But without measuring this, the potentially massive contribution of tropical forests to slowing climate change will be overlooked, undervalued and inadequately paid for.</p>
<p>Now, 25 leading researchers in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01738-7">tropical forest science</a> from Africa, Asia, Europe, North and South America are demanding an end to the exploitation which undermines the sustainability of forests themselves.</p>
<h2>Precarious, dangerous and underfunded</h2>
<p>Measuring the biodiversity and carbon of a single hectare of Amazon forest requires collecting and identifying <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.85.1.156#:%7E:text=Contrary%20to%20accepted%20opinion%2C%20upper,soils%20on%20all%20three%20continents.">up to ten times</a> the number of tree species present in the UK’s entire 24 million hectares. The skill, risks and costs involved in gathering this information are ignored by those who expect it for free.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two world maps separately coloured to denote national GDP and tropical forest area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=621&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460294/original/file-20220428-26-qjui0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How (a) 2008–2018 national average GDP per capita compares with (b) tropical forest area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01738-7">Lima et al. (2022)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fieldworkers risk their lives to measure and identify remote tropical trees. Many face the threat of kidnapping and murder, not to mention natural hazards like snake bites, floods and fires. Most long-term workers have endured infectious diseases such as malaria and typhoid, as well as dangerous transport and the risk of gender-based violence. But they may be out of work as soon as the data are collected. How many of those using their outputs to calibrate satellite instruments or write high-level reports, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-says-the-tools-to-stop-catastrophic-climate-change-are-in-our-hands-heres-how-to-use-them-179654">the recent one</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, will face similar conditions?</p>
<p>It costs an estimated <a href="https://rainfor.org/upload/publication-store/2021/ForestPlotsnet_Taking_the_pulse_of_forests_plot_networks_BiolCons_2021f.pdf">US$7 million a year</a> to measure how much carbon is sequestered by intact tropical forests. This easily exceeds piecemeal funding by a handful of charities and research councils. Because investment in field research is so inadequate, tropical nations have little idea how their forests are faring as climate change accelerates. They’re unable to say which are slowing it and lack the bargaining power to raise the finance needed to protect them.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the US spends over US$90 million annually on its <a href="https://www.fia.fs.fed.us/library/bus-org-documents/docs/FIA%20FY2020%20Business%20Report%20-%20draft%20tables.pdf">national forest inventory</a>. Wealthy countries have a firm understanding of their forest carbon balances, and have little trouble demonstrating to the world the contributions their forests make to slowing climate change.</p>
<h2>A fair deal for field workers</h2>
<p>A different approach must put the needs of data gatherers first and demand those benefiting from their efforts contribute funding and other support. Equal collaboration should be the goal of funders, producers and users of tropical forest science alike.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Students gather hold a measuring tape around a tree trunk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460280/original/file-20220428-22-8vn1bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460280/original/file-20220428-22-8vn1bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460280/original/file-20220428-22-8vn1bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460280/original/file-20220428-22-8vn1bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460280/original/file-20220428-22-8vn1bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460280/original/file-20220428-22-8vn1bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460280/original/file-20220428-22-8vn1bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Field botanist Moses Sainge trains university students in data collection, Sierra Leone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Moses N. Sainge</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For that to happen, research funding must cover not only the costs of acquiring the data, but also of training and guaranteeing safe and secure employment for forest workers. Involving local communities is critical too – they often own the forests and need economic opportunities as much as anyone. After the fieldwork, there should be funding for the essential work of curating, managing and sharing the data.</p>
<p>Authors and journals who publish scientific studies on tropical forests can help by always including the people who collect the data as authors and publishing in their languages, rather than assuming English is enough.</p>
<p>Everyone could eventually benefit from the open sharing of data. After all, the tree of knowledge yields many fruits. But unless we dedicate ourselves to sustaining its roots, there will be little left to harvest.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181387/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Phillips receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council, the European Research Council, the European Space Agency, the European Union and the Royal Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aida Cuni Sanchez receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Renato Lima received funding from the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). </span></em></p>Tropical forests are one of humanity’s best hopes for slowing climate change.Oliver Phillips, Professor of Tropical Ecology, University of LeedsAida Cuni Sanchez, Associate Professor of Environmental Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences and Honorary Research Fellow, University of YorkRenato Lima, Associate Research Scientist in Forest Ecology, Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1766382022-03-09T13:28:12Z2022-03-09T13:28:12ZCarbon markets could protect nature and the planet, but only if the rights of those who live there are recognized too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449936/original/file-20220303-4351-hi0xro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C44%2C4213%2C2753&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Carbon markets can protect forests but increasing the economic value of these lands can also create incentives for land-grabbing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Boudewijn Huysmans/Unsplash)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">timber harvesting, agriculture and land-use change</a>, such as clearing forests to make way for farms. Many see carbon markets as key to channelling billions of dollars into reducing these emissions, while protecting forests and other carbon sinks, such as peatlands and wetlands, in developing countries.</p>
<p>Carbon markets are trading systems through which countries, businesses, individuals or other entities buy or sell units of greenhouse gas emissions. These markets facilitate carbon offsetting — compensating for carbon dioxide emissions in one location by reducing or removing emissions elsewhere. For example, a company in the United Kingdom that relies on natural gas heating might buy offsets that finance the restoration of a coastal mangrove forest in Indonesia.</p>
<p>But the increased interest in carbon markets that operate across borders comes with a number of risks. In particular, many forest carbon offsetting schemes are located in lands historically claimed, inhabited and used by Indigenous Peoples and local communities. But often, the rights of these communities have not been secured, putting their well-being at risk — and threatening the future of carbon markets.</p>
<h2>Carbon markets growing</h2>
<p>The reliance on carbon markets has been <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/carbon-offsets-are-not-our-get-out-jail-free-card">criticized for allowing developed nations and corporations to delay their emissions reductions</a>, <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/environment/climate/2021/11/a-further-act-of-colonisation-why-indigenous-peoples-fear-carbon-offsetting">encroaching on the lands of Indigenous Peoples and local communities</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325038341_Commodification_of_forest_carbon_REDD_and_socially_embedded_forest_practices_in_Zanzibar">commodifying nature</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the voluntary carbon market, which enables companies and people to buy carbon offsets as part of corporate or personal commitments to social responsibility, is expanding rapidly. In 2021, the value of carbon credits traded on the voluntary market <a href="https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-markets-top-1-billion-in-2021-with-newly-reported-trades-special-ecosystem-marketplace-cop26-bulletin/">exceeded US$1 billion</a>, more than double the value in 2020. </p>
<p>Projects that sequester carbon in forests and soils generate a significant share of the carbon credits traded on this market. Such projects are also likely to play an increasing role in <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/i1632e/i1632e02.pdf">compliance markets</a>, as countries seek to meet their mandatory emissions reduction targets and commitments.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a shallow boat fishing next to a forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450092/original/file-20220304-15-3hsofk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450092/original/file-20220304-15-3hsofk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450092/original/file-20220304-15-3hsofk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450092/original/file-20220304-15-3hsofk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450092/original/file-20220304-15-3hsofk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450092/original/file-20220304-15-3hsofk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450092/original/file-20220304-15-3hsofk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man fishes from a traditional boat on the third-largest river in South America, the Orinoco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A recent report by researchers from the Rights and Resources Initiative and McGill University, including ourselves, found that <a href="https://rightsandresources.org/publication/carbon-rights-technical-report/">many of the carbon sinks targeted by offsetting schemes are located in lands where Indigenous or local rights have not been secured</a>. Most of the tropical forested countries looking to benefit from carbon markets have not yet defined communities’ rights over the carbon held in their customary lands and territories.</p>
<p>This situation threatens both the well-being of communities who face increased threats of land grabs, criminalization, conflict and other human rights violations, and the viability of carbon markets themselves. </p>
<h2>Communities at risk</h2>
<p>At COP26, in November 2021, <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact/cop26-outcomes-market-mechanisms-and-non-market-approaches-article-6#eq-1">states agreed on a series of rules to govern market-based activities under Article 6</a> of the Paris Agreement. Article 6 sets out co-operative approaches that countries can take to reach their climate targets, including through the use of market mechanisms such as carbon markets.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-strong-carbon-trading-rules-could-help-the-world-avoid-dangerous-levels-of-global-warming-151172">COP26: Strong carbon-trading rules could help the world avoid dangerous levels of global warming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Negotiators weren’t able to completely eliminate the loopholes for using offsets. But the rules aim to improve environmental integrity, <a href="https://www.sei.org/featured/double-counting-of-emission-reductions-paris-agreement/">avoid the double counting of emissions reductions</a> — where a single greenhouse gas emission reduction or removal unit is counted more than once to comply with emissions reductions targets — and provide enhanced transparency.</p>
<p>As private and public carbon markets develop, the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/forest-preservation-in-a-changing-climate/774E3A031D915471BEFF3F9A86FC6C83">potential benefits and risks of carbon trading for Indigenous Peoples and local communities</a> increase.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.iwgia.org/images/publications/0639_REED_Final_solved_eb.pdf">Potential benefits</a> include increased financial flows for forest protection and conservation, better recognition of community rights and improved livelihood opportunities, such as the sustainable production of non-timber forest products. </p>
<p>For example, a <a href="https://www.planvivo.org/yaeda-eyasi">Plan Vivo, a carbon offsetting standard, is leading a project</a> in collaboration with the hunter-gatherer Hadza and pastoralist Datooga communities in northwestern Tanzania has reduced deforestation, enhanced tenure security (the recognition of a person’s rights to land by others) — and provided local communities with additional income.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1493646941091155969"}"></div></p>
<p>On the other hand, increasing the economic value of the carbon sequestered in the lands and territories held by communities, whether legally recognized or not, creates incentives for <a href="http://revistas.unisinos.br/index.php/RECHTD/article/view/rechtd.2020.123.15/60748320">land-grabbing</a> by corporations, NGOs and governments. One of the most notorious projects of this kind is a Kenyan program for reducing deforestation that has led to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/sep/29/world-bank-kenya-forest-dwellers">forced eviction of thousands of Indigenous people from their traditional lands and forests</a>. </p>
<p>To maximize benefits and avoid harms, governments, public and private investors, and other actors in the world of carbon finance must adopt rights-based approaches to fully respect, protect and realize the rights of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and <a href="https://sur.conectas.org/en/afro-descendants-as-subjects-of-rights-in-international-human-rights-law/">Afro-descendant Peoples</a>, such as Quilombola in Brazil. But achieving such ends within the context of rapidly increasing pressure for results will not be easy.</p>
<h2>The importance of securing communities’ rights</h2>
<p>Our report found that many countries still lack the laws, regulations and safeguards needed to ensure the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities were fully protected.</p>
<p>Our study analyzed 31 countries that hold almost 70 per cent of the world’s tropical forests. We found that less than a quarter of them explicitly recognize the rights of communities to govern and benefit from carbon rights. Even fewer have implemented the rules and safeguards required by the <a href="https://redd.unfccc.int/fact-sheets/safeguards.html">United Nations</a> and the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/environmental-and-social-framework">World Bank</a> for forest carbon trading.</p>
<p>Key findings from our recent research include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Only six countries explicitly recognize community rights to carbon (Ethiopia, Peru and the Republic of Congo) or tie such rights to the legal ownership of lands and forests, whether private, public or communal (Brazil, Colombia and Costa Rica).</p></li>
<li><p>Only five countries — Costa Rica, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam define how carbon and non-carbon benefits will be shared. These include the quantity of emissions avoided or carbon sequestered, as well as the additional, positive socio-economic or environmental effects of these activities. Only Vietnam has an operational benefit-sharing scheme.</p></li>
<li><p>Only two of the 17 countries that have developed feedback and grievance mechanisms have put them into operation (Costa Rica and Mexico).</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The silhouette of an open forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450085/original/file-20220304-13-8nun1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450085/original/file-20220304-13-8nun1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450085/original/file-20220304-13-8nun1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450085/original/file-20220304-13-8nun1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450085/original/file-20220304-13-8nun1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450085/original/file-20220304-13-8nun1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450085/original/file-20220304-13-8nun1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agricultural expansion and the extraction of wood to make charcoal are the leading causes of deforestation in the Oromia forest of southwestern Ethiopia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/150102727@N06/26209577968">(Nina R/flickr)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Closing the gap</h2>
<p>To address the considerable gap that lies between the ambition and implementation of voluntary carbon markets, crediting schemes, private investors, civil society organizations and dedicated institutions must work with tropical forest governments to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Secure the legal recognition and protection of the land, forest and territorial rights of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and Afro-descendant Peoples, including the carbon stored therein and the ecosystem services that these provide.</p></li>
<li><p>Adopt robust safeguards to protect the human rights of Indigenous Peoples, local communities, Afro-descendant Peoples and women within these groups, including their right to free, prior and informed consent.</p></li>
<li><p>Ensure the full and effective participation of communities and peoples in all Article 6 activities, from initial design to implementation, monitoring and reporting.</p></li>
<li><p>Provide access to independent legal counsel and grievance redress mechanisms for Indigenous Peoples, local communities and Afro-descendant Peoples.</p></li>
<li><p>Dramatically increase direct financing support for community-led initiatives, needs and priorities, including capacity building, natural resource governance and local livelihoods.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Combined with the fundamental decarbonization of global supply chains and changes in the incentives that drive deforestation and forest degradation, binding commitments to respect forest and land rights are necessary to protect the world’s forests and the communities that live in or near them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176638/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastien Jodoin's research on carbon markets and human rights has been funded by the Rights & Resources Initiative and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Lofts previously consulted on the subject of carbon markets for the Rights & Resources Initiative as a co-author of the report discussed in this article.</span></em></p>Many see carbon markets as key to channelling billions of dollars into reducing carbon emissions and protecting forests, but they also put the well-being of communities at risk.Sebastien Jodoin, Associate Professor of Law, McGill UniversityKatherine Lofts, Senior Research Associate with the Canada Research Chair in Human Rights, Health, and the Environment, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1753972022-02-15T13:44:40Z2022-02-15T13:44:40ZFerns: the houseplants that reveal how tropical rainforests are responding to climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446510/original/file-20220215-27-1cc6gvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1279&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photos/green-fern-flora-plants-botany-4183977/">Pasja1000/Pixabay</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ferns are at their most diverse and abundant in the world’s tropical rainforests. This warm and humid ecosystem is heaven for these plants, which unfurl their feather-like leaves in the damp and shaded understory. So how did they ever come to colonise British living rooms?</p>
<p>If you have a potted fern at home, your choice of household companion may have something to do with the Victorians. Pteridomania (<em>pterido</em> comes from <em>pteris</em>, <a href="https://www.dictionary.com/browse/pterido-#:%7E:text=What%20does%20pterido%2D%20mean%3F,like%20feathers%2C%20after%20all.">the Greek word</a> for fern) seized Britain in the 19th century, as people competed to cultivate ferns at home and in specialised greenhouses. </p>
<p>Only 70 species of fern can be found in the UK wild, but you can buy over 500 species as house or garden plants today. That’s if you fancy the challenge of growing these fussy flora at home, of course. Ferns are notoriously difficult to keep alive. Too much water and the plant’s roots rot. Too little water and the plant starts sucking up air, causing a blockage which kills it. </p>
<p>Their sensitivity to temperature and rain make ferns ideal indicators for environmental conditions. For example, if your fern’s tips go brown then it probably means the air in your house is too dry. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black-and-white illustration of people in Victorian-era clothes taking cuttings of wild ferns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446511/original/file-20220215-15-1ymdcez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446511/original/file-20220215-15-1ymdcez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446511/original/file-20220215-15-1ymdcez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446511/original/file-20220215-15-1ymdcez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446511/original/file-20220215-15-1ymdcez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446511/original/file-20220215-15-1ymdcez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446511/original/file-20220215-15-1ymdcez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Victorian fern craze, as reported in The Illustrated London News, July 1871.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pteridomania#/media/File:Pteridomania.jpg">Helen Allingham</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This property also makes ferns very useful for scientists trying to understand how ecosystems are coping with climate change. By studying how these ancient plants have responded to environmental changes in the past, botanists hope to open a window into the future of the world’s tropical forests.</p>
<h2>Terra ferna</h2>
<p>Ferns first appeared on our planet around 350 million years ago. These plants, which lack flowers and seeds and reproduce via spores instead, helped shape the earliest forests and served as important food sources for many extinct species, including some dinosaurs.</p>
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<img alt="A fern in a pot suspended above the floor." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446513/original/file-20220215-17-1hqtet5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446513/original/file-20220215-17-1hqtet5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446513/original/file-20220215-17-1hqtet5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446513/original/file-20220215-17-1hqtet5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446513/original/file-20220215-17-1hqtet5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446513/original/file-20220215-17-1hqtet5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446513/original/file-20220215-17-1hqtet5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A seemingly happy housebound fern.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pot-hanging-boston-fern-1729836934">JADEZMITH/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Scientists who research fossil plants have used fern fossils to reconstruct past climates and to study the effect of natural changes in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379199000463">the Earth’s climate system</a>. Ferns are now being used to predict how modern climate change, driven by people burning fossil fuels, will affect plants and ecosystems worldwide.</p>
<p>But since ferns love to grow in warm and wet places, it’s not always easy to study them. Many tropical ferns grow along steep cliffs or up tall trees. No wonder fern species which evolved in the tropics can struggle to thrive indoors and often need extra love and attention during dry summer months. </p>
<p>Honduras, sandwiched between Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador, is about half the size of the UK but is home to more than three times as many plant species, including <a href="https://www.biotaxa.org/Phytotaxa/article/view/phytotaxa.506.1.1">more than 700 ferns</a>. The mountainous central American country has a tropical climate and vast forests and is often covered by thick clouds. </p>
<p>Growing high up on mountain ledges, some Honduran fern species are doomed by the higher temperatures and lower rainfall which climate models <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">predict</a> for much of the world’s tropical forests. Plant species across the globe have moved up mountains by <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/41/12741">between 30 metres and 36 metres</a> in the last ten years alone to escape hotter, drier conditions.</p>
<p>When growing conditions take a turn for the worse, ferns have three options. Either disperse to somewhere cooler and wetter, stay and try to adapt to the changing conditions (possible if the environmental changes aren’t too drastic), or go extinct. For most neglected house-grown ferns, the last option is the most common.</p>
<p>And that’s the route which many ferns growing at high altitudes in tropical forests are likely to take as well. In 2018, researchers in Honduras, the UK and US set out to better understand the globally observed trends in plant distributions. Their project is part of a wider effort to write the first fern flora of Honduras. A flora is a book that describes the plant species growing in a particular area or time period. </p>
<p>What the researchers have discovered so far is worrying. When studying the tallest mountain in Honduras (which has a summit at 2,844 metres), they found that up to 32 of the 160 ferns that grow on the mountain will <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-tropical-ecology/article/nowhere-to-escape-diversity-and-community-composition-of-ferns-and-lycophytes-on-the-highest-mountain-in-honduras/8E676ED96AAA0E727D1BC92722154C18">need to shift</a> above its maximum elevation. In other words, these species will disappear, and this is expected to happen in as little as 25 years, perhaps 70 at most.</p>
<p>Wild ferns in the UK and elsewhere in Europe have already begun <a href="https://academic.oup.com/aob/article/113/3/453/2768916?login=true">shifting their distribution</a> in response to climate change, and we can anticipate more severe changes in the near future. These sensitive plants have already told us a lot about the past. Now, they provide an early warning about the future.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sven Batke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fussy about moisture and temperature, ferns are excellent indicators of environmental change.Sven Batke, Lecturer in Biology, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1760032022-02-02T18:38:14Z2022-02-02T18:38:14ZThe frog and the gecko: why tropical species are at greater climate risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443290/original/file-20220130-27-8x64gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C74%2C3847%2C2804&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Predictions indicate that the Madagascar frog _Mantella aurantiaca_ is likely to experience a dramatic decline by 2070.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Frank Vassen/Wikimedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The effects of climate change – extreme heat waves, wildfires of unprecedented magnitude and devastating floods – have now been occurring for several decades, and the COP26 climate agreement reached in Glasgow will not be enough to keep global warming below 2°C, as the French climatologist Benjamin Sultan recently said.</p>
<p>Species do not escape these disruptions. In a report from the <a href="https://ipbes.net/">IPBES</a>, the equivalent of the IPCC for biodiversity, ecologists highlight dramatic declines in numbers <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0185809&_ga=2.42103269.1751527880.1531267200-635596102.1531267200">throughout the world</a>, including in regions which are apparently preserved.</p>
<p>Future projections are no better. Studies aimed at predicting the effects of climate change suggest there will be winners and losers, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.13925">but mostly losers</a> - not to mention the risks of invasion by the “winners”.</p>
<p>Although the idea of containing global warming to less than 2°C is making headway, that endeavour would nonetheless remain insufficient, as stressed in a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02420-x">study published in the leading journal <em>Climate Change</em></a>.</p>
<h2>A clearer signal in the tropics</h2>
<p>Climate change, as we can see, will cost us all, even in temperate regions. However, a growing number of studies show a gradient in the magnitude of species response to climate change. The closer to the equator, the more severe the effects. This is the case for example in European birds, with greater declines in the southernmost populations. The same pattern exists in the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.13762">North American mountains</a>, where birds track the cold toward higher altitudes, but it is mostly seen in the tropics.</p>
<p>This gradient was also observed in the body size of <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2010.0796">French passerines</a>. A study that I completed with the French National Museum of Natural History (MNHN), now published in <em>Global Change and Biogeography</em>, showed that juvenile growth was negatively affected by high temperatures, but only in the south. I summarise this research with Benjamin Freeman (University of British Columbia) in the following rap song:</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7M-YdF6zLP0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">“Species, climate change and latitude (Scientific Rap Sessions, 6 octobre 2021).”.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Species living closer to their tolerance threshold</h2>
<p>How can such a pattern be explained? Are the southernmost species not adapted to warmer climates? Of course they are, but heat and drought still represent the main constraints in those regions. In the Mediterranean region, warming would increase aridity, and hence decrease plant production – the basis of the food chain. More heat, more aridity, fewer plants and fewer insects mean less food for birds during the spring.</p>
<p>What about the tropics, where the climate is wet? Species have also adapted to these climates, but the upper limit of their thermal tolerance is no different from that of temperate species. Tropical species live permanently close to this limit. Hence, a very slight shift in temperature may <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Raymond-Huey-2/publication/267277038_Putting_the_heat_on_lizards_Cimate_physiology_and_climate_impacts_across_latitude/links/5716574708aedb90cac436e5/Putting-the-heat-on-lizards-Cimate-physiology-and-climate-impacts-across-latitude.pdf">drive them beyond their physiological comfort zone</a>.</p>
<h2>Alarming projections</h2>
<p>It is possible to anticipate the consequences of climate change using predictive models. After identifying the suitable climate conditions for a given species, ecologists make use of the future climate scenarios built by climatologists.</p>
<p>In a study carried out in collaboration with the University of Porto and the NGO Madagasikara Voakajy, these models predict a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2021.10.002">dramatic decline in climate conditions by 2070 for two species</a>: a bright-coloured frog from Madagascar and a gecko, a sticky-toed lizard from Reunion Island.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438015/original/file-20211216-15-12k2a53.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"><em>Phelsuma inexpectata</em>, a spe-cies of gecko living on the island of Reunion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">B. Navez/Wikimedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Both species are restricted to a narrow region, with very specific climate conditions. The study accounts for a variety of sources of uncertainty, either related to the scenario or the methods. In every case, the climate will become largely unsuitable for both species, not only within their current distribution area, but also across their entire respective islands. Climate change can now be added to the long list of threats already pressuring their environment.</p>
<h2>A glimmer of hope</h2>
<p>Those models suggest that the ideal climate conditions for these species will no longer be met in the future. However, they ignore the species’ capacity to adapt to new conditions. Some species may modify their habits in order to avoid the warmest periods of the day (or year). Others may find micro-climatic refuges, either in the wild or in urban areas. It is also possible that those species may tolerate heat better than expected.</p>
<p>Conservation actions have already been undertaken in Reunion. The NGO <a href="https://natureoceanindien.org/la-restauration-dhabitats-naturels/">Nature Océan Indien</a> has planned restoration programmes for the natural habitat of the gecko. These steps enable climate risks to be anticipated by favouring the existing populations.</p>
<p>What is the point of all this if the climate becomes unsuitable in the future? The study enabled us to identify with a high degree of precision the areas that are predicted to be the most favourable in the future. The results will provide guidelines for conservation practitioners and help them to maintain or create suitable habitats which will represent a haven for this highly endangered lizard.</p>
<p>Because data is patchy, this study was conducted only on two species. However, such grim predictions could well become reality for a number of other tropical species. In short: this is another alarm bell in an overheated world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolas Dubos ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>While species are and will be affected everywhere by climate change, those already living in a warm climate will reach their tolerance threshold faster.Nicolas Dubos, Researcher in Ecology, Muséum national d’histoire naturelle (MNHN)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1733022021-12-09T19:03:36Z2021-12-09T19:03:36ZTropical forests can recover surprisingly quickly on deforested lands – and letting them regrow naturally is an effective and low-cost way to slow climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436252/original/file-20211208-23-og0tr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4608%2C2586&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A 32-year-old forest on former pastureland in northeastern Costa Rica.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robin Chazdon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tropical forests are among the world’s best tools for fighting climate change and the loss of wild species. They store huge quantities of carbon, shelter thousands of plants and animals and are home to Indigenous peoples who sustain them. That’s why more than 100 world leaders pledged to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/climate/cop26-deforestation.html">halt deforestation by 2030</a> at the recent United Nations conference on climate change in Glasgow.</p>
<p>Many organizations and communities are working to restore native forests by reclaiming unproductive or abandoned land and carrying out <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/are-huge-tree-planting-projects-more-hype-than-solution">costly tree-planting efforts.</a> These efforts are designed to encourage the return of native plants and animals and to recover the ecological functions and goods that those forests once provided. But in many cases forests can recover naturally, with little or no human assistance. </p>
<p>We are forest ecologists and members of a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/project/2ndFOR-Secondary-Forests">collaborative research network that studies secondary forests</a> – those that regrow naturally after an area has been cleared and cultivated or grazed. In a <a href="http://science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abh3629">newly published study in the journal Science</a>, our group pioneers an approach to forest recovery that provides insights from over 2,200 forest plots in naturally regrowing tropical forests across the American and West African tropics. </p>
<p>Our research shows that tropical forests recover surprisingly quickly: They can regrow on abandoned lands and recover many of their old-growth features, such as soil health, tree attributes and ecosystem functions, in as little as 10 to 20 years. However, to support effective forest restoration and planning, it is important to understand how quickly different forest functions and attributes recover.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cattle graze in pasture filled with tree stumps" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436473/original/file-20211208-25-lwt6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cattle graze on cleared rainforest land in the Amazon region, Pará, Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cattle-grazing-in-pasture-formed-by-cleared-rainforest-land-news-photo/184252072">Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Forests come back</h2>
<p>Most forests around the world today have regrown after human and natural disturbances, including fires, floods, logging and clearance for agriculture. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.11.001">forests recovered</a> in Europe during the 18th and 19th centuries and in the eastern U.S. from the early to mid-20th century. Today the northeastern U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072540">has more forest cover</a> than it did 100 to 200 years ago.</p>
<p>Now, across the world’s tropical regions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810512116">forests are regrowing</a> on approximately 3 million square miles (8 million square kilometers) of former farm and ranch land. <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-value-opportunities-exist-to-restore-tropical-rainforests-around-the-world-heres-how-we-mapped-them-119508">Scientists</a> and <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/">policymakers</a> widely agree that it is critical to protect these regrowing forests and prevent more destruction and conversion of old-growth forests.</p>
<p>Tropical forests are more than just trees – they are complex, dynamic networks of plants, animals and microbes. Forest recovery takes time and often has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500403112">unpredictable outcomes and variable pathways</a>. Recovery patterns <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2003405118">differ between wet and dry tropical forests</a>. </p>
<p>To date, this active research area emphasizes studies that examined how <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau3114">specific features of forests</a>, such as the number of species they contain or tree biomass, change <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16512">over time and space</a>. We believe it is important to understand forest recovery as an integrated process that is shaped by local, landscape and historical conditions.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iX678149aTQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Puerto Rico’s tropical forests were heavily deforested through the mid-20th century but have regrown on abandoned farmlands.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A multidimensional view of tropical forest recovery</h2>
<p>Our study focused on 12 attributes that are essential components of healthy forests. They include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Soil: How much organic carbon and nitrogen does it contain, and how compacted is it? Soil that is too densely compacted – for example, by the hooves of grazing cattle – is hard for plant roots to penetrate and doesn’t absorb water well, which can lead to erosion.</p></li>
<li><p>Ecosystem functioning: How does the abundance and size of trees change as the forest regrows? What is the role in forest regrowth of trees that have root associations with <a href="https://www.britannica.com/video/186470/overview-nitrogen-fixation">nitrogen-fixing bacteria</a>? How does regrowth affect the average density of wood and the durability of leaf tissues? </p></li>
<li><p>Forest structure: How do maximum tree size, variation in tree size, and total biomass – the quantity of plant matter above ground in tree trunks, branches and leaves – change as forests regrow? </p></li>
<li><p>Diversity and composition of tree species: How do the numbers of tree species present and the diversity and abundance patterns of species change and become more similar to nearby old-growth forests?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>To assess long-term recovery rates, we compared attributes across forests growing on farmlands that had been abandoned at different times and compared regrowing forests with neighboring old-growth forests. We developed a new modeling approach to estimate how quickly each attribute recovered. </p>
<p>Many of these attributes depend on one another. For example, if trees regrow quickly they may produce a lot of leaf litter, which will restore levels of organic carbon in the soil when it decomposes. We analyzed these connections by comparing how strongly forest attributes were associated with one another.</p>
<p>The forests we studied were in areas of low- to moderate-intensity land use, meaning that soils were not exhausted or eroded and quickly supported regrowing native vegetation. For example, in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest region, 10,425 square miles (2.7 million hectares) of forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12709">regrew naturally</a> from 1996 to 2015. There is much less potential for tropical forests to recover in areas where <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12694">soils are heavily overworked and no neighboring forests remain</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing how regrowing forests regain functions over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436469/original/file-20211208-136652-1cidxu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This graphic shows how four groups of forest attributes – soil, ecosystem functioning, forest structure and tree biodiversity – recover as tropical forests regrow on former farm and pasture lands. For each category, the image shows the average percentage of recovery compared with old-growth forests after 20, 40, 80 and 120 years. Percentages in black squares show average recovery for the whole forest at each interval.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abh3629">Pixels&Ink</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All of the forest attributes that we examined recovered within 120 years of regrowth. Some recovered 100% of their old-growth values in the first 20 years of regrowth.</p>
<p>For example, the soil attributes that we analyzed reached 90% of old-growth values within 10 years and 98% to 100% within 20 years. In other words, after 20 years of regrowth, soils in the forests contained virtually as much organic carbon and had similar bulk density as soils in old-growth forests. </p>
<p>This quick recovery reflects the fact that the soils at our study sites had not been heavily degraded when forest regrowth started. Ecosystem function attributes also bounced back quickly, with 82% to 100% recovery within 20 years. </p>
<p>Forest structure attributes, such as maximum tree diameter, recovered more slowly. On average they reached 96% of old-growth values after 80 years of regrowth. Tree species composition and above-ground biomass recovered after 120 years. </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>We identified a set of three attributes – maximum tree size, overall variation in tree size and the number of tree species in a forest – that, viewed together, provide a reliable snapshot of how well a forest is recovering. These three indicators are relatively easy to measure, and managers can use them to monitor forest restoration. It is now possible to monitor tree size and forest structure over large areas and time scales using data collected by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12814">satellites and drones</a>. </p>
<h2>The importance of natural regrowth</h2>
<p>Our findings show that tropical forest regrowth is an effective and low-cost, nature-based strategy for <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">promoting sustainable development</a>, <a href="https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/">restoring ecosystems</a>, <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">slowing climate change</a> and <a href="https://www.cbd.int/">protecting biodiversity</a>.
And since regrown forests in areas where the land has not been heavily damaged quickly recover many of their key attributes, forest recovery doesn’t always require planting trees. </p>
<p>In our view, a range of suitable reforestation methods can be implemented, depending on local site conditions and local people’s needs. We recommend relying on natural regrowth wherever and whenever possible, and using active restoration planting when needed. </p>
<p><em><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pSO5IukAAAAJ&hl=en">Masha van der Sande</a> at Wageningen University and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rz2vROgAAAAJ&hl=en">Dylan Craven</a> at the Universidad Mayor in Chile contributed to the data compilation and analyses for this study.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Chazdon consults to the World Resources Institute's Global Restoration Initiative. She received funding from the US National Science Foundation, NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program, the University of Connecticut, The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the Blue Moon Foundation to support field research on forest regeneration in Costa Rica that produced data included in this study. She is a co-author of this publication in Science and other 2ndFOR Network publications that use data from her projects.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruno Hérault receives funding from FFEM the French Fund for Global Environment (Terri4Sol project), from DeSIRA the European programme for Development Smart Innovation through Research in Agriculture (Cocoa4Future project) and from FCIAD the Ivorian Competitive Fund for Sustainable Agricultural Innovation (ForestInnov project).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catarina Conte Jakovac receives funding from funding from Cnpq within the SinBiose program for Synthesis on Biodiversity and Ecosystem services. She is is part of the coordination team of the 2ndFOR network on secondary forests and is a member of the civil society organization Alliance for Restoration in the Amazon.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lourens Poorter receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC Advanced Grant 834775 and from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO-ALW.OP24). He is one of the coordinators of the 2ndFOR research network on secondary forests.</span></em></p>As governments and corporations pledge to help the planet by planting trillions of trees, a new study spotlights an effective, low-cost alternative: letting tropical forests regrow naturally.Robin Chazdon, Professor Emerita of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of ConnecticutBruno Hérault, Tropical Forest Scientist, Forests & Societies Research Unit, CiradCatarina Conte Jakovac, Associate professor of Plant Science, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)Lourens Poorter, Professor of Functional Ecology, Wageningen UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1728122021-12-08T15:13:44Z2021-12-08T15:13:44ZIndigenous lands have less deforestation than state-managed protected areas in most of tropics<p>The world lost more than <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/blog/data-and-research/global-tree-cover-loss-data-2020/">12 million hectares</a> of tropical forest in 2020, an area about half the size of the UK. Tropical forests contain much of the world’s <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/23/5775#ref-1">animal and plant species</a> and store more than half of its <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1201609">terrestrial carbon</a>. Just as importantly, they are home to people who depend on them for their livelihoods, spiritual and cultural practices and wellbeing. </p>
<p>The UN Convention on Biological Diversity’s <a href="https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/">Aichi targets</a> set goals for each country to create protected areas in 2010, and roughly 15% of the world’s land surface is under <a href="https://www.protectedplanet.net/en">official state protection</a>. Protected areas have largely been able to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/5/539">reduce deforestation</a>. But their creation can also mean the eviction of communities which have lived in forests for generations, barring them from resources and sacred sites. These injustices have often been made possible by <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/3/65">human rights abuses</a>, including violent intimidation and even killings by state forces and other groups.</p>
<p>Areas managed by Indigenous peoples cover more than 25% of the world’s land and overlap with 40% of protected areas <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0100-6">globally</a>. Studies in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504500809469845">Nicaragua</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/34/20495.short">Brazil</a> have found that Indigenous communities with ownership of their land have lower rates of deforestation than neighbouring areas. Often, deforestation in these places is even lower than in protected areas. </p>
<p>This is usually because Indigenous peoples have developed practices and institutions that prevent the over-exploitation of forests. The Cofán community in Zábalo in the <a href="https://www.conservationandsociety.org.in//text.asp?2021/19/4/259/330246">Ecuadorian Amazon</a>, for example, see themselves as <em>tsampima coirasundeccu</em> (caretakers of the forest). They share their daily observations at community meetings and arrive at a consensus over whether to prohibit harvesting certain plants and animals if they are declining.</p>
<p><a href="http://rdcu.be/cB2Vj">In a recent study</a>, myself and fellow researchers compared tropical deforestation rates and found that less deforestation occurs on Indigenous lands than in non-protected areas across the tropics. And with the exception of the Americas, where recent government policies have sped up the encroachment of extractive industries, Indigenous lands had similar or even lower rates of deforestation than protected areas.</p>
<h2>Indigenous lands and deforestation</h2>
<p>We used maps to classify areas of tropical forest that were under state-managed protection, on Indigenous lands, both, or remain unprotected in Africa, central and South America and the Asia-Pacific region. We chose areas with similar characteristics – including elevation, distance from cities and density of people – and applied a model to estimate deforestation rates. This allowed us to compare areas at similar levels of risk of deforestation. </p>
<p>Deforestation rates on Indigenous lands were between 17 and 26% lower on average compared to unprotected tropical forests globally. In Africa, Indigenous lands preserved forest cover better than protected areas, which had similar levels of deforestation to unprotected areas. In the Asia-Pacific region, spanning from India to Fiji, deforestation rates were similar on Indigenous lands and in protected areas. Both had deforestation rates that were roughly one-fifth lower than unprotected areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four teenagers paddle a long green canoe in a tropical river." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435891/original/file-20211206-25-1hmobvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435891/original/file-20211206-25-1hmobvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435891/original/file-20211206-25-1hmobvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435891/original/file-20211206-25-1hmobvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435891/original/file-20211206-25-1hmobvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435891/original/file-20211206-25-1hmobvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435891/original/file-20211206-25-1hmobvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teenagers of the Quecha tribe in the Ecuadorian Amazon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ecuadorian-amazon-december-31st-2017-local-1018987216">Alexandre Rotenberg/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the Americas, deforestation was 17% lower on average in Indigenous lands compared to unprotected areas. However, protected areas had 28% less deforestation than those without any form of protection. This is fairly surprising, as a lot of earlier research (in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/110/13/4956.short">Brazil</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.002">Panama</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-10736-w">Peru</a>) found that Indigenous territories perform better in protecting forests than state-managed protected areas. </p>
<p>We couldn’t examine this further in our research, but we think it might be an effect of more recent government regulations. In Brazil for instance, the president, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105663">Jair Bolsonaro</a>, has encouraged extractive industries such as mining on Indigenous land.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-is-devastating-indigenous-lands-with-the-world-distracted-138478">Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro is devastating indigenous lands, with the world distracted</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Smoke billows around a tall tree in a tropical rainforest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435893/original/file-20211206-15-1oc3i3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435893/original/file-20211206-15-1oc3i3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435893/original/file-20211206-15-1oc3i3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435893/original/file-20211206-15-1oc3i3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435893/original/file-20211206-15-1oc3i3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435893/original/file-20211206-15-1oc3i3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435893/original/file-20211206-15-1oc3i3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire engulfs trees in the Jamanxim National Forest, Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/recent-burned-deforested-area-within-jamanxim-1583883691">Marcio Isensee/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Forest degradation</h2>
<p>We also examined rates of forest degradation in the tropics. This is when some but not all tree cover is lost due to selective logging, road building or invasive species. Although forest degradation receives less attention than deforestation, it can still generate carbon emissions and deprive endangered species of habitat. </p>
<p>We looked at where tree cover was lost but subsequently recovered and found that forest degradation was between 9% and 18% lower on average on Indigenous lands compared with unprotected areas globally. </p>
<p>Our research bolsters the status of Indigenous communities as effective stewards of the land. This is particularly important as countries prepare for the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/conferences/2021-2022">15th UN biodiversity conference</a> in April 2022, where they’ll set fresh targets for halting species and habitat loss and agree on a new global framework for protecting nature. </p>
<p>Indigenous communities and their leaders must be at the negotiating table when the world meets to develop this roadmap. Growing evidence shows Indigenous peoples benefit the environment through their stewardship. Conservationists should support that by respecting their rights to land and autonomy and providing adequate funding.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jocelyne Sze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New study compared sites with similar distances from cities and population densities.Jocelyne Sze, PhD Candidate in Conservation and Biodiversity, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709062021-11-15T13:13:48Z2021-11-15T13:13:48ZOrganized crime is a top driver of global deforestation – along with beef, soy, palm oil and wood products<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430828/original/file-20211108-25-242wwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C2304%2C1710&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires burn off forest cover and natural grasses to create cattle pasture in the Maya forest in Guatemala.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jennifer Devine</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year the world loses an estimated <a href="https://fra-data.fao.org/">25 million acres</a> (10 million hectares) of forest, an area <a href="https://www.in.gov/idoa/state-property-and-facilities/state-property-deeds-maps-and-photos/state-property-facts-at-a-glance/">larger than the state of Indiana</a>. Nearly all of it is in the tropics. </p>
<p>Tropical forests store enormous quantities of carbon and are home to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706264114">at least two-thirds of the world’s living species</a>, so deforestation has disastrous consequences for climate change and conservation. Trees absorb carbon dioxide as they grow, slowing its buildup in the atmosphere – but when they are burned or logged, they release their stored carbon, fueling further warming. Tropical forest loss generates nearly <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf">50% more greenhouse gases</a> than does the global transportation sector.</p>
<p>At the 2021 U.N. conference on climate change in Glasgow, more than 100 world leaders pledged on Nov. 1 to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/climate/cop26-deforestation.html">halt deforestation by 2030</a>. In the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/">Declaration on Forests and Land Use</a>, countries outlined their strategy, which focuses on supporting trade and development policies that promote sustainable production and consumption. Governments and private companies have pledged over US$19.2 billion to support these efforts. </p>
<p>From my research on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BA2cjRgAAAAJ&hl=en">social and environmental issues in Latin America</a>, I know that four consumer goods are responsible for the majority of global deforestation: beef, soy, palm oil, and wood pulp and paper products. Together these commodities are responsible for the <a href="https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation.pdf">loss of nearly 12 million acres</a> (5 million hectares) annually. There’s also a fifth, less publicized key driver: organized crime, including illegal drug trafficking. </p>
<p><iframe id="WJkvF" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WJkvF/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The dominant role of beef</h2>
<p>Among major products that promote deforestation, beef is in a class by itself. Beef production is now estimated to be the biggest driver of deforestation worldwide, accounting for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.002">41% of global forest losses</a>. In the Amazon alone, cattle ranching accounts for <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/xii/0568-b1.htm">80% of deforestation</a>. From 2000 to 2011, beef production emitted <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125012">nearly 200 times more greenhouse gases</a> than soy, and 60 times more than oil palm in tropical countries with high deforestation rates.</p>
<p>Beef is produced in many countries, but it mainly drives forest losses in Latin America. On the savannas of sub-Saharan Africa and the plains of the U.S. Midwest, cattle graze without directly contributing to deforestation. </p>
<p>However, beef production in these regions indirectly contributes to deforestation by increasing demand for soy-based feed. Cattle production worldwide also drives climate change because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00225-9">cattle emit methane</a>, a potent greenhouse gas.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TcJUSMiKQyY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Under President Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon – mainly for beef and soy production – has accelerated.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Soy and palm oil: Ubiquitous ingredients</h2>
<p>Together, soy and palm oil drive nearly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.002">10% of deforestation</a> annually – almost 2.5 million acres (1 million hectares).</p>
<p>Clearing land for palm oil plantations fuels large-scale rainforest destruction in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-palm-oil-became-the-worlds-most-hated-most-used-fat-source-161165">Indonesia and Malaysia</a>, where most of the world’s palm oil is produced, destroying habitat for endangered and threatened species such as orangutans, elephants and tigers. More recently, palm oil production has expanded to other parts of Asia, Central and South America and Central and West Africa. </p>
<p>Palm oil is the most commonly produced, consumed and traded vegetable oil. Some <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data">60%</a> of the 66 million tons produced globally every year is used to produce energy in the form of biofuel, power and heat. About <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data">40%</a> is used for food, animal feed and chemical products. Palm oil is an ingredient in half of all products found at the supermarket, including margarine, shampoos, frozen pizza and detergents.</p>
<p>Soy production has doubled globally in the past 20 years. Nearly <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/">80%</a> of global soy is fed to cows, chickens, pigs and farmed fish. This demand reflects the <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/">tripling of global meat production</a> over the past 50 years. </p>
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<p>The remaining soy is largely used to produce vegetable oil and biodiesel. Humans <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12611">directly consume just 6%</a> in the form of tofu, soy milk, edamame and tempeh.</p>
<p>The United States and Brazil produce nearly 70% of the world’s annual <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/">350 million-ton soy crop</a>. Brazil has rapidly caught up to U.S. production in the past 30 years, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-thriving-soy-industry-threatens-its-forests-and-global-climate-targets-56973">disastrous consequences for tropical forests in the Amazon</a>. </p>
<h2>Wood products</h2>
<p>Wood products are responsible for about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.002">5% of annual global deforestation</a>, or about 1.2 million acres (500,000 hectares) yearly. Wood is widely used for home construction and furniture, and also as a pulp source for paper and fabric. And in low-income nations and rural areas, it’s an important fuel source for heating and cooking.</p>
<p>The three <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/1701/paper-industry/">largest paper-producing countries</a> are the U.S., Canada and China, but tropical countries have also become important pulp and paper sources. Timber plantations account for a growing share of tropical wood products, but there’s disagreement about whether this approach is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.12.010">more sustainable than logging natural forests</a>. In Indonesia between 2001 and 2016, more forests were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6db">cleared to create wood product plantations</a> than for palm oil production.</p>
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<h2>Illegal deforestation and organized crime</h2>
<p>Making the supply chains for these four commodities more sustainable is an important strategy for reducing deforestation. But another industry plays an important role, especially in tropical forests: organized crime. Large, lucrative industries offer opportunities to move and launder money; as a result, in many parts of the world, deforestation is driven by the drug trade.</p>
<p>In South America and Central America, drug trafficking organizations are the vanguard of deforestation. Drug traffickers are illegally logging forests in the Amazon and <a href="https://insightcrime.org/news/intimate-relationship-between-cocaine-illegal-timber-brazil-amazon/">hiding cocaine in timber shipments to Europe</a>. In my research, I have analyzed how traffickers illegally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102092">log</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/anti.12469">raise cattle</a> in protected areas in Central America to launder money and claim drug smuggling territory. Other scholars estimate that 30% to 60% of deforestation in the region is “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6fff">narco-deforestation</a>.”</p>
<p>Legal and illegal activities also interweave along the commodity chains for palm oil and soy. <a href="https://www.forest-trends.org/publications/consumer-goods-and-deforestation/">Forest Trends</a>, a U.S. nonprofit that promotes market-based approaches to forest conservation, estimates that nearly half of deforestation for commercial products like cattle, soy, palm oil and wood products is illegal. According to the group’s analysis, exports tied to illegal deforestation are worth US$61 billion annually and are responsible for <a href="https://www.forest-trends.org/wp-content/uploads/imported/for168-consumer-goods-and-deforestation-letter-14-0916-hr-no-crops_web-pdf.pdf">25% of total global tropical deforestation</a>.</p>
<p>Not all large-scale illegal deforestation is linked to drug trafficking organizations. But it is <a href="https://www.interpol.int/News-and-Events/News/2020/Forestry-crime-targeting-the-most-lucrative-of-environmental-crimes">almost always tied to organized crime</a> that depends upon corruption to operate. </p>
<p>Promoting sustainable production and consumption are critical to halting deforestation worldwide. But in my view, national and industry leaders also have to root organized crime and illicit markets out of these commodity chains. Until they do, global pledges to halt deforestation will have limited effect.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than 100 world leaders have pledged to end the destruction of forests by 2030 as a way to slow climate change. That will require changing how the world produces four widely used commodities.Jennifer Devine, Associate Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, Texas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709022021-11-02T16:27:47Z2021-11-02T16:27:47ZDeforestation: why COP26 agreement will struggle to reverse global forest loss by 2030<p>More than 100 world leaders meeting at COP26 – the UN climate summit in Glasgow – have committed to <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/%22%22">halt and reverse deforestation by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>The countries that have signed the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59088498">agreement</a> contain 85% of the world’s forests. The announcement includes £14 billion (US$19.2 billion) of public and private funds for conservation efforts. In addition, 28 countries have committed to ensuring trade in globally important commodities such as palm oil, cocoa and soy, does not contribute to deforestation.</p>
<p>Saving the world’s <a href="https://www.fao.org/state-of-forests/en/%22%22">dwindling forests</a> is essential if we are to avoid <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf">dangerous climate change</a>. Forests soak up carbon from the atmosphere and cutting them down releases it. On balance, forests removed the equivalent of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00976-6%22%22">7.6 billion tonnes</a> of CO₂ every year over the last two decades. This is roughly 20% of <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-co2-emissions-have-been-flat-for-a-decade-new-data-reveals">global emissions</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men looking at deforested landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429758/original/file-20211102-52223-10ln2yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429758/original/file-20211102-52223-10ln2yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429758/original/file-20211102-52223-10ln2yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429758/original/file-20211102-52223-10ln2yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429758/original/file-20211102-52223-10ln2yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429758/original/file-20211102-52223-10ln2yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429758/original/file-20211102-52223-10ln2yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Much of Madagascar has been deforested to make way for small-scale agriculture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mahesh Poudyal</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But forests around the world are moving from net sinks of carbon, which soak up more than they release, to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2035-0?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nature%2Frss%2Fcurrent+%28Nature+-+Issue%29%22%22">net sources</a>. While the Amazon rainforest as a whole <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00976-6%22%22">remains a carbon sink</a> (for now), ongoing <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837720325333?casa_token=M5DTwxIBo-0AAAAA:3GzHsIzedS2_g3wko9Ka1Uqdgo-GSR-B7sse1MlMmnGuURw0U31JKA6EXDt787UHRtbSoOftkqM%22%22">land clearance</a> in parts of the Brazilian Amazon mean forests there are already emitting more carbon than they absorb. Increasing global temperatures are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02771-y%22%22">causing more forest fires</a> too, further raising emissions from forests and so driving global temperatures higher. </p>
<p>Given that the window for keeping global warming below 1.5°C, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00663-3">or even 2°C</a>, is rapidly closing, humanity desperately needs remaining forests to stay standing. So is the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/%22%22">Glasgow leaders’ declaration</a> on forests and land use up to the task?</p>
<h2>Past failures</h2>
<p>This is only the most recent commitment to stop forest loss in a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2590332220305972%22%22">series of similar initiatives</a>. Back in 2005, the UN Forum on Forests <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N05/396/66/PDF/N0539666.pdf?OpenElement">committed to</a> “reverse the loss of forest cover worldwide” by 2015. In <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1241277">2008</a>, 67 countries pledged to try and reach zero net deforestation by 2020. This was followed by the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/new-york-declaration-on-forests">New York declaration on forests</a> in 2014 which saw 200 countries, civil society groups and indigenous peoples’ organisations commit to halve deforestation by 2020 and end it by 2030.</p>
<p>These earlier efforts clearly failed to meet their targets. On average, rates of forest loss <a href="https://forestdeclaration.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2020NYDFGoal1.pdf">have been 41% higher</a> in the years since the New York agreement was signed. It’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320717305219?casa_token=eTVee0gVee8AAAAA:kw2vCRtOv7WlIVFNMcvwK4AZ6Rdz2yGwYFi7zlD1CCZ8x974bCQTbeEcM6Ef8x_PwK0ebHIJpkU%22%22">almost impossible</a> to know what deforestation rates would have been without these pledges. </p>
<p>It is important not to vilify those clearing tropical forests. In most cases, whether it’s oil-palm plantation workers in southeast Asia, or the owner of a family-run cocoa farm in Ghana, these are just ordinary people trying to make a living. Where those clearing forest are poor subsistence farmers with few alternatives, such as many in Madagascar for example, preventing forest clearance can mean some of the poorest people on the planet are <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/5106/">bearing the cost</a> of tackling climate change. Given that such people contribute <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2%22%22">relatively few emissions</a>, this isn’t very fair.</p>
<p>What we do know is that progress on slowing deforestation has been wildly inadequate. The good news is Brazil, Russia and China, who did not sign the 2014 declaration, <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/%22%22">have this time</a>. However, words are cheap, actually slowing deforestation is difficult to achieve.</p>
<h2>Why is it so hard to slow deforestation?</h2>
<p>The causes of forest loss <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aau3445">vary</a> from place to place, but the problem boils down to a conflict between those who benefit from deforestation and those who benefit from keeping forests intact, and whose ability to influence what happens on the ground wins out.</p>
<p>Conserving forests benefits everybody by stabilising the climate. But logging, or clearing a patch of forest for farming, benefits the people involved in a much more direct and tangible way. Ultimately, to keep forests intact, those who benefit from forests (that’s all of us) need to fund efforts to conserve them.</p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/JPE/article/view/23493/0">criticism</a>, and problems with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343517301872">implementation</a>, this is the underlying rationale to REDD+ (<a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cobi.12933">Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation</a>) – the UN mechanism whereby tropical nations are paid for efforts to conserve forests. </p>
<p>Just before flying to Glasgow, Madagascar’s minister of environment and sustainable development, Dr Baomiavotse Vahinala Raharinirina, visited a village to ask people <a href="http://forest4climateandpeople.bangor.ac.uk/%22%22">their views</a> on what would make forest conservation more effective. They spoke about the lack of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17300475">alternative livelihoods</a>, the need for <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08941921003782218">more support</a> to help them manage the forest sustainably, and the fact that local communities often <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026483771631105X">lack the ability</a> to exclude those who wish to exploit forests. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People sat in a circle." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429455/original/file-20211031-25-cvzma8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429455/original/file-20211031-25-cvzma8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429455/original/file-20211031-25-cvzma8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429455/original/file-20211031-25-cvzma8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429455/original/file-20211031-25-cvzma8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429455/original/file-20211031-25-cvzma8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429455/original/file-20211031-25-cvzma8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Minister Raharinirina and British Ambassador David Ashley discuss efforts to slow deforestation with people living near Madagascar’s rainforest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Forest4Climate&People</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Raharinirina said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Madagascar has contributed relatively little to climate change, but our people are suffering the consequences. For example, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/madagascar-is-on-the-brink-of-famine-caused-by-climate-change-with-children-most-at-risk-12456981%22%22">a million people in the south</a> are in need of food aid because of the effects of a drought caused by climate change. We are trying to do our bit to reduce emissions by conserving and restoring our forests and have signed the Glasgow Leaders Declaration, however this won’t be achieved without more resources… We will need support from the international community to help us achieve this.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I am cautiously impressed with how much attention is being paid to the question of fairly reducing tropical deforestation at COP26. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEI5LG_86ns">first event</a> in the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/UK-Presidency-Pavilion-at-COP26-Programme.pdf%22%22">UK-led programme</a> brought forest communities and indigenous people together to discuss lessons from the last decade of forest conservation.</p>
<p>Dolores de Jesus Cabnal Coc, an indigenous leader from Guatemala, shared my cautious optimism, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s a slow process and will continue to be, but ever since [COP21 in Paris in 2015] there has been a big difference in that there is now a platform to help ensure more inclusive actions…</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Six people in formal dress stand in a line wit TV screens behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429679/original/file-20211102-1361-1swg8m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429679/original/file-20211102-1361-1swg8m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429679/original/file-20211102-1361-1swg8m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429679/original/file-20211102-1361-1swg8m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429679/original/file-20211102-1361-1swg8m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429679/original/file-20211102-1361-1swg8m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429679/original/file-20211102-1361-1swg8m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Panellists speaking about the last decade of forest conservation (from left to right): Tuntiak Katan, Raymond Samndong, Sarobidy Rakotonarivo, Dolores de Jesus Cabnal Coc, Victoria Tauli-Corpuz.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julia P G Jones</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps I am naive, but I sense a helpful change in tone among world leaders, from assuming that forest conservation inevitably delivers triple wins which benefit the climate, biodiversity and local livelihoods, to a more honest acknowledgement that often, <a href="https://www.espa.ac.uk/book">there are winners and losers</a>. Only by finding ways for conservation to benefit those who live alongside forests can the world hope to keep those forests absorbing emissions for years to come.</p>
<p>So, will this pledge finally halt and reverse deforestation? Unlikely. But given the importance of the issue, the renewed focus on deforestation at COP26 is certainly positive.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia P G Jones receives funding from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office to support a project called Forest4Climate&People. </span></em></p>World leaders are slowly learning from decades of failure on tropical forest conservation.Julia P G Jones, Professor of Conservation Science, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1697082021-10-28T18:47:14Z2021-10-28T18:47:14ZImported deforestation: how Europe contributes to tree loss worldwide, and what we can do about it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428320/original/file-20211025-25-1xjxkj4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C0%2C2048%2C1355&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfid/4115002439">DFID - UK Department for International Development</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Forest area is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/forest-europe-environment/">increasing in Europe</a>, mainly because farms are getting fewer and smaller. This should be good news, but it must be put into perspective alongside the loss of forest that the EU’s growing agricultural imports cause in third countries. We call this “imported deforestation”.</p>
<p>The European Union is the world’s main trader in agricultural products with <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Extra-EU_trade_in_agricultural_goods">imports totalling €142 billion in 2020</a>. These imports include commodities such as palm oil, beef, cocoa, coffee and soya which are responsible for deforestation in the countries that produce them.</p>
<p>The EU case is not unique. At the global level, tropical areas are losing forests at a rate of <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/ca9825en/ca9825en.pdf">10 million hectares per year</a> according to the FAO’s latest report on forest resources, and temperate areas, which are gaining forest area at a rate of 5 million hectares per year.</p>
<p>Of the 10 million hectares of forest lost each year, just under two-thirds can be unambiguously attributed to agricultural expansion, with the remaining third being a combination of forest fires, logging and other factors. About one-third of the forest area lost is linked to international trade. By fighting against imported deforestation, it is therefore possible to make a significant difference in total tree loss worldwide.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong><em>Lire cet article en français:</em></strong> <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/quelles-pistes-pour-freiner-la-deforestation-importee-163304">Quelles pistes pour freiner la déforestation importée</a>?</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Acknowledging its role in imported deforestation, the EU is currently stepping up to reduce the impacts of its imports. After the European Parliament <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/654174/EPRS_STU(2020)654174_EN.pdf">adopted a report</a> on the issue, the EU is heading toward a mix of mandatory and voluntary rules to tackle the problem. Meanwhile, some EU countries, like France, have already set up <a href="https://www.gouvernement.fr/en/ending-deforestation-caused-by-importing-unsustainable-products">national strategies</a> to combat imported deforestation.</p>
<h2>How to fight imported deforestation</h2>
<p>Preventing imported deforestation means knowing how to quantify the phenomenon and monitor it. For example, tropical wood from Africa can pass through China where it is processed before being imported into Europe. This means we need complex traceability chains to track the origin of imported wood with the support of customs services and private companies.</p>
<p>Then there is the question of timing. Should Ivory Coast cocoa from farms that replaced forests destroyed in the 2000s still be counted as a liability for imported deforestation? We need to set a cut-off date after which products imported from an area can be disconnected from deforestation.</p>
<p>It is also necessary to take forest degradation into account. This is the reduction of a forest’s capacity to provide goods and services, which is reflected in a reduction in tree density. Countries define forest degradation by setting their own tree cover thresholds, which results in several hundred definitions.</p>
<p>For imported deforestation, the choice of this threshold is critical. If it is low, heavy degradation can occur without this transformation being qualified as deforestation. If it is high, the conversion of vegetation that has all the ecological characteristics of forests into agricultural land might not technically be considered deforestation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Illustration showing effects of threshold selection on perceptions of deforestation and degradation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428754/original/file-20211027-21-a2jddm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Effects of threshold selection on perceptions of deforestation and degradation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://highcarbonstock.org/">Adapted from High Carbon Stock</a>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many sustainable production activities, such as selective logging, lead to forest degradation. But with good forest management, this degradation is limited and reversible.</p>
<p>The same principle applies to certain forms of agroforestry (such as cultivating cocoa under forest shade) or the collection of firewood in dry forests. The challenge, then, is not to avoid all degradation, but to control the factors that cause it in order to keep it within sustainable limits.</p>
<p>These different issues, which at first glance seem technical, refer to political choices that are the responsibility of policy and the law.</p>
<h2>Zero deforestation certificates</h2>
<p>We believe it is necessary to distinguish between illegal and legal deforestation, building on the <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32010R0995">EU timber regulation</a> which bans the import of all illegally harvested timber.</p>
<p>Differentiating between legal and illegal is politically more feasible than boycotting agricultural production associated with deforestation that is legal in the producing country but deemed environmentally problematic by the EU.</p>
<p>If legal agricultural production is banned, the EU would risk exposing itself to trade retaliation, not to mention complaints to the World Trade Organisation about trade discrimination.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A farmer harvest cocoa" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428329/original/file-20211025-25-swzcde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The EU is often importing deforestation when it imports cacao.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/32170883384">2017CIAT/NeilPalmer</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ideally, producing and importing countries should agree on common definitions of forest and on cut-off dates. But this will be a long and difficult process.</p>
<p>It seems more realistic to ban the import of agricultural products from illegal deforestation and to modulate tariffs according to the information and guarantees that importers provide to ensure their production can be certified as “zero deforestation”. These certifications would be accredited by the public authorities and would be subject to a continuous evaluation process.</p>
<p>Switzerland has just paved the way via for this an <a href="https://www.seco.admin.ch/seco/fr/home/Aussenwirtschaftspolitik_Wirtschaftliche_Zusammenarbeit/Wirtschaftsbeziehungen/Freihandelsabkommen/partner_fha/partner_weltweit/indonesien.html">agreement with Indonesia</a> that lowers tariffs by 20% and then 40% for certified palm oil across three approved standards.</p>
<h2>A fair measure for small producers</h2>
<p>In all cases, it will be necessary for importers to comply with the legal requirement for due diligence to ensure that an imported product is not associated with illegal land conversion.</p>
<p>If there is insufficient information regarding the status of the product and the import goes ahead, the importer will not only have to fulfil its due diligence obligation, but will also have to demonstrate that its product is zero deforestation in order to benefit from a favourable customs tariff.</p>
<p>If the due diligence suggests a high risk of illegality, then the responsible importer will not market the shipment. If due diligence is successful and no risk of illegality is found, but the product is not certified as zero deforestation, a higher tariff is applied. If the due diligence is successful and the product is certified as zero deforestation, then it receives a favourable tariff.</p>
<p>Currently, many products such as <a href="https://www.fern.org/fileadmin/uploads/fern/Documents/Duty%20Free.pdf">soy</a> or <a href="https://fullfact.org/europe/cocoa-tariff/">cocoa</a> have tariffs of 0%. Differentiating between zero-deforestation products and others will require an increase in some of these tariffs.</p>
<p>The additional revenue from this could be used to fund programmes to help small-scale producers in exporting countries move toward sustainable practices and become certified. Such an allocation would refute accusations of protectionism and provide a good faith basis for defending this measure at the World Trade Organization.</p>
<p>As with all ecological taxation, the aim of a zero deforestation certification scheme would be for the yield of the import tax to decrease over time. Ideally, Europe would eventually only import certified zero deforestation products, redressing the global imbalance between the parts of the world that are gaining forests and those that are losing them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alain Karsenty is a member of the scientific committee of the Fondation Nicolas Hulot pour la Nature et l'Homme.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolas Picard ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Europe’s forests are growing, but tropical areas are losing tree cover at a massive scale due to EU demand for imported products. Here’s how to redress the imbalance.Alain Karsenty, Économiste de l’environnement, directeur de recherches, enseignant à AgroParisTech et consultant international, CiradNicolas Picard, Directeur du GIP ECOFOR, chercheur en sciences forestières, InraeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1694282021-10-18T12:12:31Z2021-10-18T12:12:31ZA forgotten mangrove forest around remote inland lagoons in Mexico’s Yucatan tells a story of rising seas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426286/original/file-20211013-19-14cgvm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=36%2C14%2C4883%2C3260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A stand of red mangroves in the calm, calcium-rich, fresh waters of the San Pedro Mártir River, Tabasco, Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Meissner</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The San Pedro River winds from rainforests in Guatemala through the Yucatan Peninsula in eastern Mexico. There, this peaceful river widens into a series of slow-flowing lakes. Along a remote 50-mile (80-kilometer) stretch, thousands of red mangroves – trees commonly found along tropical coastlines – line the river’s banks and gentle waterfalls.</p>
<p>Unlike mangroves elsewhere, these trees grow in freshwater. This means that many other species can grow with them: orchids, bromeliads and other air and land plants that cannot tolerate the saline conditions where red mangroves are normally found. It’s a magical garden, and also a scientific puzzle: How did these mangroves come to be growing some 125 miles (200 kilometers) inland, 85 to 120 feet (25 to 37 meters) above sea level, in an entirely freshwater ecosystem?</p>
<p>I am part of a multidisciplinary team of researchers from Mexico and the U.S. that sought to answer this question by comparing these trees to other mangroves across the broader Yucatan Peninsula region. We also analyzed <a href="https://web.whoi.edu/coastal-group/about/how-we-work/field-methods/coring/">sediment cores</a> from the San Pedro River terraces, which showed strong indications that the sediments had been created in coastal areas.</p>
<p>We found that the mangroves of the river have been separated from coastal mangroves for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024518118">around 120,000 years</a>. This coincides with the <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/penultimate-interglacial-period">Last Interglacial</a> – a warm period between ice ages, about 125,000 years ago, when glaciers and polar ice caps melted almost entirely. </p>
<p>During that time, the Earth was even warmer than at present and sea levels were 20 to 30 feet (6 to 9 meters) higher. These mangroves’ ancestors were coastal trees that were left isolated as the planet cooled during the <a href="https://wgnhs.wisc.edu/wisconsin-geology/ice-age/">Wisconsin Glaciation</a> – the last era when glaciers expanded across North America. As the glaciers spread, sea levels fell, exposing more land around them. Now, this unique forest, a footprint of the past, is at risk of deforestation and development that could prevent scientists from studying it for more insights into Earth’s climate history.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2560%2C1697&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Fish swim among mangrove roots" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2560%2C1697&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426284/original/file-20211013-25-1m52xh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fish and other aquatic life in the San Pedro Martir River in Tabasco, Mexico, amid submerged red mangrove roots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Octavio Aburto</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mangroves and fresh water</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://environment.bm/red-mangrove">red mangrove (<em>Rhizophora mangle</em>)</a> is an iconic tree that is enormously important to commercial and artisanal fisheries around the world. Juvenile fish shelter among mangroves’ tangled roots, feeding and growing until they are large enough to avoid predators.</p>
<p>Our study focused on two inland lagoons created by giant <a href="https://www.xenotes.com/en/what-are-the-cenotes/">cenotes</a> – natural sinkholes in the Yucatan’s limestone bedrock – near the Caribbean coast. Red mangroves reproduce via seeds that germinate while they are <a href="https://www.amnh.org/explore/videos/biodiversity/mangroves-the-roots-of-the-sea/what-is-a-mangrove">still attached to mother plants</a>, then drop onto a bank or into the water, where they float away and establish themselves on adjacent banks. This adaptation enables mangroves to spread along coastlines, even though saltwater is toxic to most seeds and makes germination very difficult. </p>
<p>We were fascinated to know how the San Pedro mangroves got there. Their seedlings couldn’t float upstream for so many miles, and the forest on the banks was large and well-established, which made it seem highly unlikely that an animal or human could have brought the seeds inland. To our knowledge, the San Pedro River mangroves are unique in existing so far from the coast. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1419609114917933059"}"></div></p>
<h2>Isolation and fragmentation</h2>
<p>One way to determine where plants may have come from is to see whether they are genetically related to colonies of similar plants elsewhere in a region. So we conducted a genetic investigation that looked for <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/definition/snp-295/#:%7E:text=A%20single%20nucleotide%20polymorphism%2C%20or,C%2C%20G%2C%20and%20T.">single-nucleotide polymorphisms</a>, or “snips” – differences in a single DNA building block between one plant and another. </p>
<p>We found that the closest relatives to the San Pedro River’s isolated mangroves were mangroves at the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90893/laguna-de-terminos">Terminos Lagoon</a> on the Yucatan’s western coast, along the Gulf of Mexico. Mangroves from both river communities also were closely related to other coastal populations on the Gulf of Mexico. However, they were very distinct from other freshwater inland mangrove populations in cenotes on the Yucatan’s eastern coast along the Caribbean, and those populations are distinct in turn from other coastal mangroves.</p>
<p>We cored the largest mangrove trees at three sites, extracting pencil-shaped samples from their trunks that showed their growth rings, to get a sense of how long these trees lived – about 100 years – and how many generations of trees had lived there. Then we multiplied that figure by a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tig.2010.05.003">mean genetic mutation rate</a> to estimate how old the San Pedro mangroves were when they diverged genetically from other mangroves, and how long ago that divergence occurred. </p>
<p>We calculated that the San Pedro River and Terminos Lagoon mangrove populations separated genetically approximately 100,000 years ago. This supports our hypothesis that the San Pedro River mangroves are a relict from the last interglacial, some 120,000 years ago.</p>
<p>Our data also suggests that something drastically reduced the size of the isolated inland population of San Pedro River mangroves. This created what scientists call a <a href="https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/bottlenecks_01">genetic or population bottleneck</a>, meaning that its gene pool became much smaller. As a result, the current population has a more unique genetic signature than mangroves elsewhere. Amazingly, this change was caused by just 30 feet (9 meters) of change in sea level. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cXzfOpZSmk8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Climate change is raising global sea levels in two ways: water expands as it warms, and ice sheets and glaciers on land are melting.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What else does this unique forest hold?</h2>
<p>Our discovery raises an obvious question: Which other species have been isolated in this unique ecosystem for the past 125,000 years? Are there insects? Fungi? We hope scientists who study other types of organisms will explore this area and look for more relicts. </p>
<p>But this special place is at risk. The region was <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.513.5340&rep=rep1&type=pdf">systematically deforested in the 1970s</a> as part of a development plan, but the banks of the San Pedro River escaped the bulldozers because the terrain was challenging. New threats loom today, such as a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/graphics/rainforest-maya-ruins-and-fight-over-tourist-train/">proposed 950-mile (1,529 km) train route</a> that would carry thousands of visitors to Mayan archaeological sites.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 115,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Mayan river systems contain a wealth of <a href="https://editions.lib.umn.edu/openrivers/article/water-in-the-maya-lowlands/">cultural</a> and <a href="https://insider.si.edu/2011/07/river-turtles-genes-reveal-ancient-influence-of-mayan-indians/">biological</a> riches. Now, we also know that the story of extreme climate change and sea level rise during the Pleistocene is recorded in the DNA of these plants. </p>
<p>They show how dramatically climate change could alter coastal ecosystems along the Gulf of Mexico and many other shorelines if nations do not take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. My colleagues and I believe the San Pedro River deserves protection as a testament to both resilience and adaptation in a changing climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sula E Vanderplank is affiliated with Pronatura Noroeste AC, a non-profit organization in Mexico.</span></em></p>Mangroves grow in saltwater along tropical coastlines, but scientists have found them along a river in Mexico’s Yucatan, more than 100 miles from the sea. Climate change explains their shift.Sula E Vanderplank, Adjunct Professor, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1674262021-09-08T10:34:52Z2021-09-08T10:34:52ZCut less, leave longer: decades of data show we are over-exploiting tropical rainforests<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419754/original/file-20210907-19-1r98vgm.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4275%2C2837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We are logging more than can be sustained by tropical forests. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Plinio Sist</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tropical rainforests currently cover 1070 million hectares of the world’s surface. More than 90% of them are located in three regions: Central Africa, in the Congo Basin; South America, mostly in the Amazon; and in Southeast Asia, in Indonesia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea.</p>
<p>It is estimated that 400 million hectares of these forests are currently given over to timber production. But our research over many decades shows the <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00242.x">rules that govern</a> timber harvesting in tropical forest – currently based on logging intensity and cutting cycle – do not allow for the long-term recovery of the timber volume being harvested from these ecosystems.</p>
<p>These observations question the very foundations of the so-called “sustainable management” of these forests, and indicates that we will see further degradation of the planet’s last timber-producing tropical rainforests. It is therefore urgent that we seek out new sources of timber. Natural forests alone will not be able to meet current and future demand.</p>
<p>The principles of tropical silviculture – the management of forests to meet the needs of diverse groups and industries – must also be completely revised.</p>
<h2>No time to recover</h2>
<p>Timber harvesting in tropical forests concerns only a very small number of trees of commercial interest: one to three trees per hectare in Africa, five to seven in the Amazon, and eight in Southeast Asia. Just a few species, including ipe, cumaru, okoumé and sapelli are exploited worldwide.</p>
<p>Among these, only the largest trees of more more than 50 to 80 cm in diameter are felled and harvested. The forest is then left to rest, generally for 25 to 35 years, depending on a specific country’s legislation. These rest periods, known as “rotations”, should theoretically allow the forest to recover the stock of harvested timber.</p>
<p>But our <a href="https://www.museo-editions.com/product-page/vivre-avec-les-for%C3%AAts-tropicales">data</a> shows that, in reality, these resting periods are vastly underestimated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hill forests in Borneo (Indonesia)" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412097/original/file-20210720-25-1n0l5mh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412097/original/file-20210720-25-1n0l5mh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412097/original/file-20210720-25-1n0l5mh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412097/original/file-20210720-25-1n0l5mh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412097/original/file-20210720-25-1n0l5mh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412097/original/file-20210720-25-1n0l5mh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412097/original/file-20210720-25-1n0l5mh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hill forests in Borneo (Indonesia).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Plinio Sist</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since the early 1980s, CIRAD and its partners have set up <a href="https://tmfo.org/">experimental plots</a> to monitor tropical forest dynamics in order to assess the effects of selective logging on the reconstitution of the timber stock. This information now allows us to simulate the trajectories of exploited tropical rainforests according to the harvesting intensity, but also other variables – including rainfall and soil type.</p>
<p>Using this information, we calculated the reconstitution of a forests’s biomass, the commercial volume of timber and the evolution of biodiversity within the Amazon basin to highlight <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab195e">significant differences</a> within the same region.</p>
<p>We found that, in general, the rotation times of 25-35 years in force in most tropical countries are insufficient to fully reconstitute the timber volume removed. On the other hand, biodiversity and biomass seem to recover <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00242.x">fairly quickly within 20-25 years</a>, after which more than 80% of biodiversity remains at the level of the pre-harvest level.</p>
<h2>Unsustainable production</h2>
<p>In the Brazilian Amazon, current forest protection legislation is based on a 35-year cycle, with an harvesting intensity of 15-20 m<sup>3</sup> per hectare and an initial proportion of commercial species of 20%. At this rate, and considering a harvesting area of 35 million hectares, the level of production cannot be maintained beyond one harvesting cycle of 35 years, and will then decline each year until the resources are depleted.</p>
<p>Only by reducing harvesting intensity by half and a 65-year cutting cycle would ensure sustainable and constant timber production; however, in this situation, only <a href="https://www.cirad.fr/espace-presse/communiques-de-presse/2021/durabilite-des-concessions-forestieres-bresiliennes">31% of current demand</a> could be met.</p>
<p>In Southeast Asia, the cutting cycle period is 20 to 30 years, and logging intensities in primary forest, on average 80m<sup>3</sup> per hectare, can exceed 100m<sup>3</sup> per hectare. But data from forest dynamics monitoring indicate that only an <a href="https://www.cifor.org/knowledge/publication/1409">intensity of 60m³ per hectare every 40 years</a> would ensure sustainable and consistent production over time.</p>
<p>Finally, in Central Africa, the recovery of the stock of timber removed 25 years after logging is only 40%, suggesting a recovery <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2012.0302">of barely 50% over a 30-year rotation</a>.</p>
<h2>A new system for harvesting timber</h2>
<p>The idea behind tropical silviculture, designed more than half a century ago, is that natural tropical forests are capable of producing timber in a sustained manner. In light of our results, this position must be completely revised.</p>
<p>The monitoring of tropical forests dynamics after logging shows that, in most tropical countries, they will not be able to meet the growing market demand for timber within 30 years, according to the rules established by forestry legislation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tropical forest near Congo Brazzaville" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419841/original/file-20210907-5388-1lmj0c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Central African tropical forests barely recover by 50% before being logged again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bobulix/6379255773/in/photolist-aHHmuv-aHHkkP-aHHjQF-aHHmXp-aHHkUp">Bobulix</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the vast majority of cases, true sustainability would require a considerable reduction in the harvesting intensity and a significant increase in the duration of logging cycles, which compromises the economic sustainability of selective logging in the current legislation system.</p>
<p>Natural tropical forests can no longer be perceived as a simple source of timber: the environmental services they produce should also be taken into account. For example, we could consider pricing timber from natural forests higher than that from plantations, with intended use linked to the higher quality of their wood. This higher price would increase the economic profitability of timber harvesting in natural forests, while plantation wood could be used for less noble purposes.</p>
<p>There is an urgent need to promote diversified tropical forestry now, combining timber production from natural forests, mixed plantations, agroforests (human-created forest systems with a multi-level vegetation structure similar to natural forests), and secondary forests (those regenerated on deforested areas left to be abandoned).</p>
<p>The rising international interest in tropical forest restoration under the <a href="https://www.bonnchallenge.org/">Bonn Challenge</a> – a plan to restore 350 million hectares of deforested land by 2030 – or the very recent proclamation of the <a href="https://www.un.org/press/fr/2019/ag12124.doc.htm">UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration</a> (2021-2030), are both opportunities to implement this new approach in the tropics.</p>
<p>But no new system aimed at sustainable timber production will be successful without also introducing effective policies to combat illegal logging and deforestation, which continue to supply the timber market at lower costs and compete with any logging system aimed at long-term sustainability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Plinio Sist is the coordinator of the TmFO (Tropical managed Forests Observatory) network, which focuses on the resilience of exploited tropical forests with the aim of formulating recommendations for sustainable forestry. TmFO is governed by a memorandum of understanding signed by 18 forestry research institutions. TmFO currently has 32 experimental sites spread over 12 countries on three continents (Amazonia, Congo Basin and Southeast Asia), with a total of 639 forest plots representing a total inventoried area of 1258 hectares. This network is funded by CIRAD, the CGIAR Forests Trees and Agroforestry program and the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs in support of the Alliance for the Preservation of Tropical Rainforests.</span></em></p>Observations collected since the 1980s in the Amazon, Central Africa and Southeast Asia show we are not giving tropical forests enough time to recover after logging.Plinio Sist, Écologue des forêts tropicales, CiradLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1671452021-09-06T16:35:51Z2021-09-06T16:35:51ZAfrican tropical mountain forests store far more carbon than previously thought – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419578/original/file-20210906-29-1ecbgbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1920%2C755&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mountain forests are significant carbon stores.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photos/waterfalls-landscape-trees-forest-1417102/">Heibe/Pixabay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tropical forests are well known for being the <a href="https://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/news/tropical-rainforests-lungs-planet-reveal-true-sensitivity-global-warming">“lungs”</a> of our planet. Through photosynthesis, the trees in these forests produce oxygen and remove enormous amounts of <a href="https://www.rainforesttrust.org/climate-change-series-part-1-rainforests-absorb-store-large-quantities-carbon-dioxide/">carbon dioxide</a> from the atmosphere, helping to mitigate global warming.</p>
<p>The world’s most famous tropical forests found on lowlands, like those of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-regrowing-forests-have-offset-less-than-10-of-carbon-emissions-from-deforestation-165419">Amazon</a> or Borneo, are celebrated for their ability to store carbon. The Amazon rainforest itself holds up to <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/amazon-rainforest-now-appears-to-be-contributing-to-climate-change">twenty years’ worth</a> of fossil fuel carbon emissions in its trees and soil. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tall trees with sunlight coming through" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419577/original/file-20210906-17-dg1kei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419577/original/file-20210906-17-dg1kei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419577/original/file-20210906-17-dg1kei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419577/original/file-20210906-17-dg1kei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419577/original/file-20210906-17-dg1kei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419577/original/file-20210906-17-dg1kei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419577/original/file-20210906-17-dg1kei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tropical mountain forest in Bwindi, Uganda.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While tropical forests can also be found on tropical mountains such as <a href="https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/borneos-biological-treasure-trove">Mount Kinabalu</a> in Borneo, these have long been assumed to store much less carbon. On mountains, temperature decreases with increasing elevation, negatively affecting tree growth. Also, common mountain features such as thick fog, wind and steep slopes tend to constrain tree height. </p>
<p>If trees are smaller, and grow slower, then mountain forests should contain less carbon sequestered from the atmosphere through growth processes: a hypothesis which has been reflected in <a href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/11/2741/2014/">studies</a> of tropical mountains in the Andes and southeast Asia.</p>
<p>But our research, recently published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03728-4.epdf">Nature</a>, shows that tropical mountain forests in Africa actually store as much carbon per hectare as those found in African lowlands – a finding specific to the continent.</p>
<p>This is because, although African tropical mountain forests have fewer trees (about 450 per hectare compared to 600 in other continents) than their lowland counterparts, they have a greater abundance of large trees (over 70 cm in diameter), whose increased mass means they hold on to more carbon. </p>
<p>We wondered if this unusual finding was thanks to <a href="https://www.longdom.org/articles/is-elephant-damage-to-woody-vegetation-selective-of-species-plant-parts-and-what-could-be-plausible-factors-influencing-.pdf">elephant populations</a> resident in many African tropical mountain regions, who eat and destroy smaller tree stems – creating room for others to grow larger – and also transport nutrients which are limited in mountain soils. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person marks a tall tree with paint" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419576/original/file-20210906-15-hu8jvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419576/original/file-20210906-15-hu8jvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419576/original/file-20210906-15-hu8jvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419576/original/file-20210906-15-hu8jvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419576/original/file-20210906-15-hu8jvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419576/original/file-20210906-15-hu8jvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419576/original/file-20210906-15-hu8jvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A researcher marks the point of tree diameter measurement in Itombwe Nature Reserve, Democratic Republic of the Congo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we didn’t find significant differences in tree height between forests with and without elephants, although unfortunately our data only showed us if elephants were present in a given area and not how many were around. Other explanations could include the <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-africa-must-brace-itself-for-more-tropical-cyclones-in-future-103641">low frequency</a> of tropical cyclones or active volcanoes in Africa, making it less likely for trees to be destroyed before they grow tall. </p>
<h2>Carbon storage</h2>
<p>A group of 101 researchers working at different institutions across Africa, Europe, North America, Asia and New Zealand measured 72,336 trees with trunks of over 10cm diameter on 44 mountains in 12 countries within the African continent. For each tree we recorded trunk diameter, species and height. </p>
<p>We used an equation to estimate the carbon stored in these forests, since actually cutting, drying and weighing trees – technically the most accurate method for analysing carbon capture – would rather undermine our aim to mitigate climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people measure a tree trunk with a yellow tape measure" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419580/original/file-20210906-19-6pwva9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419580/original/file-20210906-19-6pwva9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419580/original/file-20210906-19-6pwva9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419580/original/file-20210906-19-6pwva9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419580/original/file-20210906-19-6pwva9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419580/original/file-20210906-19-6pwva9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419580/original/file-20210906-19-6pwva9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers measuring tree diameter in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We then calculated how much tropical mountain forest had been lost in the African continent over the past 20 years, using data from satellites. We estimated that <a href="https://www.wur.nl/en/news-wur/show-home/African-tropical-montane-forests-store-more-carbon-than-was-thought-.htm">0.8 million</a> hectares had been lost, mostly in DRC, Uganda and Ethiopia. </p>
<p>Unexpectedly, given the steep terrains which make <a href="https://theconversation.com/forest-soil-needs-decades-or-centuries-to-recover-from-fires-and-logging-110171">logging</a> operations or large-scale farming challenging, we found that in many African countries deforestation rates were higher in the mountains than the lowlands. </p>
<p>So if these mountain forests store more carbon than expected, we are releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than previously assumed. In fact, the 0.8 million hectares of mountain forest destroyed since 2001 has emitted more than 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the planet’s atmosphere, accelerating global warming.</p>
<h2>Biodiversity loss</h2>
<p>African tropical mountain forests are not only carbon-rich: they are also rich in <a href="https://www.mountainresearchinitiative.org/news-content/africa/afri-sky-for-saving-african-tropical-montane-forests">biodiversity</a>. Among their huge trees live elephants, mountain gorillas, chimpanzees, and numerous species of birds, amphibians and snakes found nowhere else in the world. Continued deforestation will push many of these creatures further towards <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50477684">extinction</a>.</p>
<p>These forests also act as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-mountain-water-towers-are-melting-putting-1-9-billion-people-at-risk-128501">“water towers”</a> (like giant water tanks), irrigating agricultural land and supplying numerous vital river systems including the Congo and the Nile. This makes them crucial for local and regional crop growth, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/water/how-hydropower-works#:%7E:text=Hydropower%2C%20or%20hydroelectric%20power%2C%20is,or%20other%20body%20of%20water.">hydropower systems</a> providing renewable energy, and inland fisheries supporting nutritious diets and livelihoods for local communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person sorts through leaves on the forest floor" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419581/original/file-20210906-25-17a14pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419581/original/file-20210906-25-17a14pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419581/original/file-20210906-25-17a14pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419581/original/file-20210906-25-17a14pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419581/original/file-20210906-25-17a14pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419581/original/file-20210906-25-17a14pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419581/original/file-20210906-25-17a14pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A researcher collects leaf samples for further identification, in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mountain forests often collect water droplets from fog in a process known as <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241363360_Occult_precipitation_and_plants_its_consequences_for_individuals_and_ecosystems">“occult precipitation”</a>. This makes local landscapes much more humid than if the forests were not present. Destroying these forests is therefore not only terrible for our global climate, but also for regional weather and biodiversity, since <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4446095/">many species</a> require the specific conditions created by this humidity to thrive. </p>
<p>But our study also provides some hope. If these forests store more carbon than previously assumed, it could allow us to increase the <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2021/04/governments-companies-pledge-1-billion-for-tropical-forests/">economic benefits</a> awarded to developing countries who successfully decrease deforestation, meaning greater incentives for forest conservation – and better futures for those who call the mountain forests home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167145/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aida Cuní Sanchez receives funding from Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions and National Geographic.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Sullivan receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council, and has worked on projects funded by the European Research Council, the Royal Society, the Natural Environment Research Council and the British Ornithologists' Union. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phil Platts receives funding from The University of York and is a member of the IUCN Species Survival Commission’s Climate Change Specialist Group. Additional funding for the survey of African mountain forests was provided by the TransGlobe Expedition Trust, the African Butterfly Research Institute, DMM Climbing, and Marmot tents.</span></em></p>Towering trees in African tropical mountain forests are a vital, overlooked carbon store threatened by deforestation.Aida Cuní Sanchez, honorary fellow, University of YorkMartin Sullivan, Lecturer in Statistical Ecology, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityPhil Platts, Research Fellow, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1644342021-07-28T13:13:58Z2021-07-28T13:13:58ZBrazil’s Atlantic Forest will change more in the next 50 years than at any time since the last ice age<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412613/original/file-20210722-19-1cxs2ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5332%2C3000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dawn in Serra do Mar, Brazil.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dramatic-dawn-atlantic-rain-forest-serra-1100881652">Carla Nichiata/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/">Brazil’s Atlantic Forest</a> is one of the most biologically diverse places on Earth. Roughly one in every 50 species of plant and vertebrate land animal <a href="https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v403/n6772/pdf/403853a0.pdf">lives there</a> and nowhere else.</p>
<p>Stretching for 3,000km along much of Brazil’s coast and inland as far as Argentina and Paraguay, its incredible diversity comes from a mosaic of different ecosystems, including natural grasslands, tropical rainforests, ancient forests adapted to wintry chills, misty mountainous “cloud forests” and more. </p>
<p>But its eye-watering richness of life is in grave danger: the biome has been shattered by several centuries of deforestation and habitat change. Now, the upheavals we’re causing in Earth’s climate systems threaten, within decades, to bring greater disruption to Atlantic Forest ecosystems than any natural changes have for many thousands of years.</p>
<p>Already, only fragments of the Atlantic Forest remain. Just a quarter of the remaining forest area is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.02.021">more than 250 metres</a> from open land – that’s a three-minute walk, on pavement. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.02.021">Well over 80%</a> of its natural vegetation has been destroyed since Europeans arrived in Brazil, and some Atlantic Forest ecosystems have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12623">50-50 chance of collapsing</a> within 50 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A yellow-chested and green-feathered tropical bird sitting on a branch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413545/original/file-20210728-17-14a28k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413545/original/file-20210728-17-14a28k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413545/original/file-20210728-17-14a28k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413545/original/file-20210728-17-14a28k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413545/original/file-20210728-17-14a28k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413545/original/file-20210728-17-14a28k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413545/original/file-20210728-17-14a28k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Saffron toucanets depend on forested habitats for their survival.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/saffron-toucanet-sitting-on-branch-atlantic-565429243">Uwe Bergwitz/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Global heating adds another threat. Earth’s climate <a href="https://xkcd.com/1732/">has always changed</a>, but disruptions this century are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay3701">likely to be</a> bigger and happen faster than anything humankind has previously experienced. Higher temperatures and more variable rainfall will be a particular challenge in the south of the Atlantic Forest, where ecosystems comprise a delicate balance of species – some from the warm tropics, others adapted to freezing winters, but almost all dependent on constant moisture.</p>
<h2>Studying the past to predict the future</h2>
<p>How will 21st-century climate change affect the southern Atlantic Forest? I’ve been working with colleagues in the UK, Sweden and Brazil to find out, and to put the next half-century of changes in 21,000 years’ worth of context. Looking into the past may seem like a surprising choice, but it provides the best – perhaps the only – concrete data we have on how living things react to major climate changes. </p>
<p>Over the past 21,000 years, the quirks in Earth’s orbit took our planet from the peak of the last ice age to the warmer Holocene period. If we can find echoes of future conditions in millennia gone by, and unravel how species and ecosystems responded to them, we can improve our predictions of what the future might bring. To do this, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379121002122?via%3Dihub">our study</a> brought together reconstructions and projections of past and future climates, data on 30 key forest and grassland species, and several dozen sites where past climate and vegetation changes have been recorded (like fossil pollen buried in layers of bog mud). What we found is profoundly worrying.</p>
<p>As you would expect, our data showed that southern Brazil has been gradually warming since the last ice age. Almost the entire region had a similar kind of climate to today’s highland areas 21,000 years ago – temperate with warm summers – but that climate zone has receded over time, with the lowlands switching to a hotter climate type. Meanwhile, a tropical rainforest climate zone remained confined to the region’s northern coast, ebbing and flowing over the years. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nine different maps of southern Brazil showing ecological changes over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413538/original/file-20210728-23-5u2bwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Southern Brazil’s climates from 21,000 years before present (BP), present (late-20th and early-21st century) and future (2061-2080, high-emissions scenario).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379121002122?via%3Dihub">Wilson et al. (2021)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>However, without checks on carbon emissions, each climate type will change more in the next 50 years than in any of the past 3,000-year periods we looked at. Increasing global temperatures will see the hotter lowland climate type expand further and faster than it has in millennia. Huge expansions of tropical rainforest climate could see it emerge in areas it hasn’t been since before the last ice age. And, driven out of areas they’ve occupied since the start of our study, the cooler highland conditions will shrink to their smallest extent for well over 21,000 years. </p>
<p>But what will these drastic climate changes mean for the Atlantic Forest itself? One thing is for sure, they won’t be straightforward. Species and ecosystems change in messy ways through time. <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/070037">Ecological surprises</a> are common, especially when the climate is most unlike that of the present – species can unexpectedly thrive in conditions they currently avoid, or they can form groups <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/070037">unlike any</a> we know today.</p>
<p>Our study found plenty of evidence for shifts in the composition of southern Atlantic Forest ecosystems over time, as well as two periods with large expanses of odd and unexpected plant communities. These occur at the times of greatest climatic change. The first happened around 12,000 years ago, as the world left the last glacial period and entered the warmer Holocene. The second could take place within my lifetime.</p>
<p>By the 2070s, land across the north and east of our study region could lose cold-adapted species it has hosted for 21,000 years or more – like the ancient, iconic <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-breakdown-is-pushing-brazils-iconic-araucaria-tree-to-extinction-new-research-123068">Araucaria tree</a>, a living fossil – to be replaced by more warm-tolerant tropical trees in a grouping that’s rare in the present. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two maps comparing the extent of plant communities adapted to cold weather in the present and in 50 years." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413793/original/file-20210729-15-19c2afh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plant communities adapted to cold weather are predicted to lose a lot of ground in the southern Atlantic Forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379121002122?via%3Dihub">Quaternary Science Reviews/Wilson et al. (2021)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Our models suggest that over 100,000km² of the southern Atlantic Forest would experience greater climate-driven change to its species composition in a high-emissions 21st century than it has at any other point in the past 21,000 years. Worryingly, we found hints that these changes might already be underway, with warm-adapted plant communities beginning to push their cold-adapted neighbours uphill.</p>
<p>Our study provides a useful way of understanding Brazil’s Atlantic Forest – what’s happened to it before as well as what might happen next. But our results also lay bare the limitations of relying on past scenarios – even across tens of thousands of years – to understand the effects of our radically altered man-made future climate. Despite the centuries-long battering from deforestation, it seems that the toughest test for southern Brazil’s Atlantic Forest may still lie ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Wilson has received funding from The University of Reading, Mangorolla CIC, and the UK's Natural Environment Research Council.</span></em></p>For one of Earth’s most biodiverse forests, 21,000 years of natural change pale in comparison to modern, man-made climate breakdown.Oliver Wilson, PhD Candidate in Environmental Science, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.