tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/uk-energy-14335/articlesUK energy – The Conversation2023-07-05T12:41:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2086332023-07-05T12:41:00Z2023-07-05T12:41:00ZRegulators including Ofgem use codes of practice to curb bad behaviour by businesses –– how to tell if this works<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534658/original/file-20230628-18428-4pbe1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C60%2C6649%2C4406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/smart-meter-energy-checking-domestic-electricity-2283726771">Janis Abolins/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>UK energy regulator Ofgem <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/28/ofgem-moves-to-make-new-prepayment-meter-supplier-rules-compulsory">wants to make</a> its voluntary <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/statutory-consultation-involuntary-ppm">code of practice on prepayment meters compulsory</a>. It introduced the code in April 2022 to protect people from being forced onto prepayment meters for gas and electricity.</p>
<p>As the cost-of-living crisis sent energy bills spiralling, UK energy companies were criticised for forcing vulnerable people onto these meters to ensure payment for gas and electricity. In some instances, contractors were reported to have <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/i-felt-id-been-burgled-woman-says-energy-firm-workers-forced-their-way-into-her-home-to-install-meter-12860366">forced their way into homes</a> to install them. </p>
<p>Predominantly used by low-income consumers, prepayment meters have traditionally been more expensive compared to paying via direct debit. And according to consumer service <a href="https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/about-us1/media/press-releases/millions-left-in-the-cold-and-dark-as-someone-on-a-prepayment-meter-cut-off-every-10-seconds-reveals-citizens-advice/">Citizens Advice</a>, 3 million people ran out of credit on their prepayment meters in 2022. This increases the risk of being without power to cook, keep the lights or heating on. </p>
<p>The UK government has since announced it will bring the two sets of charges in line. But groups including <a href="https://twitter.com/EndFuelPoverty/status/1670675322285506560">the End Fuel Poverty Coalition</a> have called for more radical action, such as banning forced installation of prepayment meters altogether. Instead, Ofgem launched a code of practice in April to which UK energy companies <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/energy-suppliers-sign-new-code-practice-involuntary-prepayment-installations">voluntarily signed up</a>. These companies are then required to comply with it to be able to move a customer on to a prepayment meter.</p>
<p>Ofgem’s move to make the code compulsory raises the question of whether – in this situation at least – a code of practice was enough to ensure ethical behaviour.</p>
<h2>What is a code of practice?</h2>
<p>Regulators or industry bodies use a code of practice that typically cover the behaviour and actions of professions, companies or industries. They are often voluntary, are sometimes referred to as self-regulation and can be developed by political institutions or by companies themselves. Many of these codes cover topics and areas that are not easily controlled by regulation, such as company values or an employee’s ethical behaviour.</p>
<p>Codes of practice <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242022630_Curves_in_the_high_road_A_historical_analysis_of_the_development_of_American_business_codes_of_ethics">widely used in the private and public sector</a> to eliminate unethical behaviour for many years. In fact, they actually affect almost all aspects of our lives – from our behaviour in the workplace to the supply chains of the clothes and food we buy. </p>
<p>For example, if you work for a major UK employer such as <a href="https://www.tescoplc.com/media/1239/tesco-code-of-business-conduct-2018.pdf">Tesco</a>, <a href="https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/dam/az/PDF/Sustainability/Code_of_Ethics_English.pdf">AstraZeneca</a> or <a href="https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/who-we-are/responsible-business/downloads/group-codes-and-policies/2022-lbg-code-of-ethics-and-responsibility.pdf">Lloyds Banking Group</a>, your conduct at work is governed by a code of practice. When you buy a pair of trainers from a high street store such as <a href="https://www.jdplc.com/sites/jd-sportsfashion-plc/files/ethical-code-of-practice-2021.pdf">JD Sports</a> or <a href="https://www.nextplc.co.uk/corporate-responsibility/code-of-practice">a dress from Next</a>, these are covered by codes concerning the treatment of workers and the environment throughout the supply chain. Even the teachers at your children’s school are covered by a <a href="https://www.gtce.org.uk/teachers/thecode/index.html">code of conduct</a>.</p>
<h2>Critiquing the code</h2>
<p>Three main criticisms have been levelled at voluntary codes by academic researchers. Companies and industries have been criticised for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/add.13048">using voluntary codes as a public relations tool</a> to change perceptions rather than rooting out unethical practices. Many codes are also believed to include little in terms of content that would lead to a meaningful change in practice. Instead they often simply <a href="https://hub.salford.ac.uk/cfs/wp-content/uploads/sites/107/2019/12/The-effectiveness-of-self-regulation-in-microfinance-1.pdf">list what they are legally obliged to do</a> or what they’re already doing. Finally, industries and professions have been accused of using codes to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-019-04192-x">protect themselves</a> from lawsuits, government intervention or competition from new market entrants.</p>
<p>Leaving aside the controversies around codes of practice, what does academic research tell us about their effectiveness? The short answer is that it depends. A <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-019-04192-x">recent review</a> of the existing academic evidence concluded that codes have “somewhat positive” effects in a number of areas. This includes a reduction in (largely self-reported) unethical behaviour by employees and management, as well as positive effects on labour conditions in the supply chain. </p>
<p>However, there are some important caveats to this. To be effective, voluntary codes and standards have to prescribe or root out behaviour and practices that make a material difference to organisational and staff conduct. It’s important that new practices are actually adopted as a result, as is the degree to which the code is embedded in the organisations. The latter can happen when, for example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/puar.12562">leadership teams demonstrate good conduct</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://hub.salford.ac.uk/cfs/wp-content/uploads/sites/107/2019/12/The-effectiveness-of-self-regulation-in-microfinance-1.pdf">review of voluntary standards</a> in international microfinance found that most codes and self-regulatory frameworks lacked independent verification, robust monitoring and consequences for noncompliance. Voluntary standards have also been found to lack the clout to overcome <a href="https://pure.port.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/13306806/JID_Paper_Dominican_Republic_Final_version.pdf">competitive pressures to maximise profit and reduce costs</a>, which may drive unethical behaviour.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Blue sky background, wooden signpost with signs for ethics, accountability, principles, integrity, values." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534660/original/file-20230628-19397-ek160k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534660/original/file-20230628-19397-ek160k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534660/original/file-20230628-19397-ek160k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534660/original/file-20230628-19397-ek160k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534660/original/file-20230628-19397-ek160k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534660/original/file-20230628-19397-ek160k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534660/original/file-20230628-19397-ek160k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A code of practice signposts ethical behaviour for companies, professionals and industries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wooden-signpost-code-ethics-concept-accountability-537942472">PX Media/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What should you expect from a code of practice?</h2>
<p>Whether you have to adhere to a code of conduct as part of your job, or you are keen to ensure a company you buy from is acting ethically, research shows there three key questions to ask when examining their code of conduct.</p>
<p>First, what does the code says about how behaviour will be monitored and enforced, and what are the consequences of noncompliance? Second, whether the code has been embedded into the organisation. For example is it included in training, or do leaders talk about it or demonstrate its main points in the way they act? Thirdly, what are the underlying drivers of “bad” behaviour (for example, shareholder pressure to boost profitability), and to what degree has the code acknowledged and attempted to address these?</p>
<p>Based on the available academic evidence outlined above, Ofgem’s code could help to reduce unethical behaviour in the energy industry. However, its long-term success will depend how far energy companies go to make it part of their working cultures. Ofgem’s decision to make the code compulsory would be a good way to ensure this happens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pål Vik is an independent expert on the Steering Group for the European Code of Good Conduct for Microcredit Provision, a body overseeing a voluntary code of practice for the European microfinance sector. </span></em></p>Creating a successful code of conduct requires commitment from organisations and the people that must abide by them.Pål Vik, Senior Research Fellow, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1860692022-08-31T14:53:36Z2022-08-31T14:53:36ZEnergy crisis: why the UK will be at the mercy of international gas prices for years to come<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482051/original/file-20220831-26-imdrtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8622%2C5644&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The UK is expecting a long, cold winter and gas prices are unlikely to fall for some years to come. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cold-grandfather-warming-himself-by-radiator-2106329783">Jelena Stanojkovic / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK is trying to ensure households and businesses have enough energy this winter by turning to international markets buoyed by booming <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/firms-make-deals-boost-lng-exports-60-us-canada-mexico-2022-08-23/">US liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply</a>, and reinstating retired <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/440350/nsta-gives-centrica-green-light-to-reopen-rough-gas-storage-site/">storage capabilities</a>. But the impact of Russia’s recent decision to switch off its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/31/nord-stream-1-russia-switches-off-gas-pipeline-citing-maintenance">Nord Stream 1 pipeline</a> has proven that European countries are still very much at the mercy of changes in global gas market supply and demand. </p>
<p>Such events are likely to continue to cause gas price volatility until more supply is available, which could take at least three years. Indeed, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets">recent dip</a> in European gas prices is likely to be temporary.</p>
<p>Avoiding a significant gas supply emergency this winter will require the continued flow of some Russian gas to Europe, lower-than-average Asian demand for LNG, and mild weather. But prices will also depend on how <a href="https://progressivepost.eu/europes-gas-crisis-requires-a-european-solution/">European neighbours respond</a> to any emergency.</p>
<p>In 2021, natural gas <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-energy-in-brief-2022">accounted for</a> 42% of the UK’s primary energy consumption and generated 40% of its electricity. It also heats over 80% of households, and is an important raw material and source of heat for industry. </p>
<p>Even though cheaper renewable sources <a href="https://ukerc.ac.uk/publications/can-renewables-help-keep-bills-down/">provide 60%</a> of the country’s energy, the UK market is structured so that electricity prices are currently set by the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news-and-views/blog/what-drives-wholesale-electricity-prices-britain#:%7E:text=is%20often%20the-,marginal%20source%20of%20generation,-.%20When%20electricity%20demand">most expensive unit</a> produced, which is gas.</p>
<p>The government can do little to address the cost of gas. The UK gets around half of its annual gas supply from its own North Sea reserves, but relies on <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/energypricesandtheireffectonhouseholds/2022-02-01#:%7E:text=The%20UK%E2%80%AFimports%20around%2050%25%20of%20its%20gas%20from%20the%20international%20market">global markets</a> for the rest. As such, gas consumers in the UK are exposed to global market forces of supply and demand.</p>
<h2>The global rise of LNG</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.politybooks.com/search?s=Natural%20Gas">International trade in gas</a> currently relies on two forms of transportation: natural gas pipelines and ships carrying LNG. In the past, trade was regional and dominated by pipelines, but the LNG sector has grown by 57% over the last decade, creating a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00130095.2017.1283212">globally connected market</a>. </p>
<p>Last year LNG accounted for 51% of internationally traded gas, up from 41% a decade ago. Today, <a href="https://giignl.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GIIGNL2022_Annual_Report_May24.pdf">19 countries export and 44 import</a> LNG.</p>
<p>Production of LNG is expensive and complex. It involves a multi-billion dollar supply chain of liquefaction plants (where the gas is cooled to liquefy it and make it easier to transport), as well as specialist ships and regasification terminals to offload and store the LNG before it is converted into gas for power generation or injection into a domestic pipeline system. </p>
<p>Australia (21%), Qatar (21%) and the US (18%) are the top three global LNG producers, while Asia accounts for <a href="https://www.igu.org/resources/world-lng-report-2022/">73% of global LNG demand</a>. China <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15387216.2020.1716819">consumes 21.3%</a>, followed by Japan (20%) and South Korea (12.6%). In 2021, Europe soaked up 21.0% and the UK 2.9% of total LNG trade.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482030/original/file-20220831-18-4yglhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482030/original/file-20220831-18-4yglhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482030/original/file-20220831-18-4yglhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482030/original/file-20220831-18-4yglhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482030/original/file-20220831-18-4yglhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482030/original/file-20220831-18-4yglhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482030/original/file-20220831-18-4yglhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An LNG tanker moored to a gas terminal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/lng-tanker-ship-dawn-moored-gas-1295259748">Wojciech Wrzesien / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of these global buyers and sellers strike long-term contracts that can span decades and include a destination clause requiring cargoes be delivered to a specific market. </p>
<p>But the growing demand for LNG has seen a rise in shorter-term (4 years or less), more flexible contracts that allow cargoes to change route to supply the markets in which prices are higher. “Spot markets” for LNG are even shorter term, with cargoes delivered within three months of the transaction date.</p>
<p>While Asian buyers like Japan tend to purchase LNG with <a href="https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220614_DebatingJapan_V5_I2.pdf?jygsf6Y8zhJjNSaAnvpkUe934EdD.0d">long-term contracts</a>, Europe sources <a href="https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng/lng-outlook-2022.html#iframe=L3dlYmFwcHMvTE5HX291dGxvb2tfMjAyMi8">most of its LNG</a> via short-term contracts and the spot market. This allows it to benefit from lower prices when the global LNG market is well supplied, but exposes it to higher prices when supply is tight, like it is now.</p>
<p>Expanding supply would certainly loosen the LNG market, but there is little prospect of a significant near-term increase in supply. In April 2022, 136 million tonnes per year of liquefaction capacity was under construction or approved for development, compared to total production capacity of <a href="https://www.igu.org/resources/world-lng-report-2022/">459.5 million tonnes per year</a>) in 2021. </p>
<p>But relatively little of this LNG will be available in the next couple of years, including <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/eu-sanctions-stop-construction-arctic-lng-2-modules-china">projects in Russia</a> that are now unlikely to complete due to sanctions. Recent <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-an-lng-export-terminal-in-the-united-states/">US experience suggests</a> it takes three to five years to build an LNG plant. </p>
<p>The supply and demand balance will change dramatically by 2028, therefore, when global LNG export capacity is likely to be <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/quarterly-gas-review-issue-18/">50% higher</a>.</p>
<h2>Russian restrictions</h2>
<p>Of course pipelines can also transport natural gas, but since its invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, Russian gas supplies to Europe have become increasingly volatile. After refusing to supply companies that didn’t pay in Roubles, for example, Russia then used various technicalities to restrict <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/falling-like-dominoes-the-impact-of-nord-stream-on-russian-gas-flows-in-europe/">supply from the Nord Stream 2</a> pipeline to Germany, as well as Nord Stream 1 more recently. </p>
<p>The International Energy Agency expects Russia to meet <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/070522-russia-set-to-meet-just-25-of-eu-gas-demand-in-2022-iea">25% of EU gas demand</a> in 2022, down from over 40% in 2021. There are fears that Russia will stop supplies all together.</p>
<p>To combat this, Europe is aiming to <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/07/26/member-states-commit-to-reducing-gas-demand-by-15-next-winter/">reduce its reliance on gas</a>, and <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131">Russian gas</a> in particular. It has turned to <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/06/01/how-europe-plans-to-cope-as-russia-cuts-off-the-gas">LNG imports</a> to fill storage for the coming winter. But, with limited LNG available, <a href="https://blog.geographydirections.com/2022/05/03/the-eus-global-scramble-for-gas/">prices have skyrocketed</a>.</p>
<h2>Skyrocketing gas prices</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481999/original/file-20220831-18-55nu1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UK natural gas prices to August 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas">Trading Economics</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Increased European demand complicates matters for the UK. While Russia only accounts for about <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9523/CBP-9523.pdf">4% of UK gas imports</a>, declining production from the North Sea means the country now import about half of the gas it consumes. Most imports come from Norway, but <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1086525/Supply_of_Liquefied_Natural_Gas_in_the_UK__2021.pdf">LNG also plays a critical role</a>.</p>
<p>And while the UK has sufficient terminal and pipeline capacity to import the gas it needs, it <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-21/u-k-s-lack-of-gas-plan-leaves-country-at-mercy-of-global-market?sref=PF2RkEmW">lacks significant storage</a>. There are plans to reinstate Britain’s <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/15/rough-gas-storage-site-cleared-start-filling-within-weeks/">Rough storage facility</a>, which had been retired in 2017, but this will take time. Meanwhile, the UK must rely on shorter-term flexible contracts and the spot market, exposing consumers to greater price volatility.</p>
<h2>How long will the crisis last?</h2>
<p>The factors currently driving gas prices up will remain in place for several years and so the energy crisis is likely to last for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0ed80178-0573-41a8-b437-49e3a293f6a9">at least this winter and next</a>. This is also reflected in the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e11ca7cf-dd7a-43a9-a4e7-0dbd12f244d7">futures market</a>, where traders can lock in natural gas at a set price for delivery at some point in the future. </p>
<p>Reduced demand will help – whether via policy or economic recession – but the global LNG market will remain tight, and UK consumers will have to pay a high price for the gas they need. </p>
<p>Beyond 2025, a substantial increase in global LNG supply will help matters, energy efficiency will improve, and alternative sources of power generation may start to come online. But unfortunately, for the moment, there is no relief in sight for those impacted by the energy crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Bradshaw receives funding from UKRI to support his participation in the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and the NERC-ESRC research programme on Unconventional Hydrocarbons. He consults with international energy companies and NGOs and is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.</span></em></p>Why the UK’s reliance on natural gas means the energy crisis is unlikely to end this winter.Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892802022-08-26T15:06:38Z2022-08-26T15:06:38ZWill the UK experience blackouts? Three scenarios for this coming winter<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481168/original/file-20220825-22-d54dhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2496%2C1665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Guy Erwood / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK could experience its first large-scale blackout in decades this winter if gas shortages combine with particularly cold weather. That’s according to the government’s “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/09/uks-energy-crisis-response-could-include-winter-power-cuts">reasonable worst case scenario</a>”, a warning which was <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/energy-bills-blackouts-boris-johnson-b2149998.html">dismissed</a> by a No 10 spokesperson. </p>
<p>For blackouts to happen, many different factors would have to line up. The UK has control of some of these factors, such as the day-to-day running of the energy system or policies to try and reduce demand for gas and electricity at peak hours (the two are linked since <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032260/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2021.pdf">about a third</a> of the UK’s electricity is generated by burning natural gas). </p>
<p>Other factors are only controlled over much longer timescales and so won’t have much impact this winter – we can’t insulate millions of homes overnight, or suddenly build new power plants. And then there are factors that are largely beyond the control of those charged with keeping the lights on in the UK: climate change, weather patterns, a major gas-producing country going to war.</p>
<p>With these limitations in mind, what might happen this winter in the UK? Here are three possible scenarios:</p>
<h2>1. Mild winter</h2>
<p><strong>– Manageable supply chains</strong></p>
<p><strong>– Very low risk of blackouts</strong></p>
<p>Energy demand rises significantly every winter when people need to heat and light their buildings, but the difference between an extreme and mild winter can be devastating. A milder winter will put significantly less stress on the country’s energy system and disruption becomes less likely. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="British Gas van parked in snowy street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481172/original/file-20220825-723-z6zhnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mild winters put less strain on gas and electricity supplies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tom Gowanlock / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK’s cost of living crisis will still dominate this winter, whatever the weather and regardless of the threat of blackouts. The spiralling cost of energy could therefore see demand reduced even further from what might be expected. That would help avoid energy rationing, though, of course, people under-heating their properties will have extremely serious consequences for <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-poverty-is-linked-to-physical-and-mental-health-our-research-proves-it-176484">health and wellbeing</a>. </p>
<h2>2. Typical winter</h2>
<p><strong>– Noticeable disruption in energy systems</strong></p>
<p><strong>– Low risk of blackouts</strong></p>
<p>Colder temperatures combined with restrictions on the availability of gas could be the point at which network disruption becomes more noticeable to ordinary people. </p>
<p>The National Grid is currently projecting, based on a winter with average cold spells, that the <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/264521/download">first half of December</a> may be the highest risk period. However, it believes that its “standard operation tools” should be able to manage this. These include the use of Electricity Margin Notices, essentially a call to generators that more supply is needed. These are relatively common (there were four last winter, for instance) but we may see many more being issued in 2022/23. </p>
<p>The UK’s remaining coal power plants produce an ever-diminishing share of the country’s electricity (just 2% last year). To cope with gas supply issues from Europe, it is also likely that these coal plants will have their lives extended.</p>
<h2>3. Extreme winter</h2>
<p><strong>– Significant alterations to management of energy supply</strong></p>
<p><strong>– Uncertain risk of blackouts</strong></p>
<p>A very cold winter with serious supply problems from Europe does raise the risk of power disruption significantly. While this is not entirely stepping into the unknown, and there are likely to be many comparisons to the winter of 1973/74 and its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/gallery/2009/apr/16/past-conservatives">three-day week</a>, there are significant uncertainties that make concrete predictions very difficult. For instance, we do not know exactly what several European countries will decide to do with their exports, most notably Norway and France, who will have their own challenges to deal with.</p>
<p>As we enter what the government refers to as a “reasonable worst case scenario”, an estimated shortfall of one-sixth of peak demand could be seen for a period of days, as even reanimated coal plants are not able to cope with cold temperatures and reduced imports from Europe. It is here where more visible emergency measures such as energy rationing may take place, where gas flows in particular will require prioritisation based on need.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pylons in snowy field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481101/original/file-20220825-26-4297vu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cold weather is bad news for the energy system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Belu Gheorghe / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK is fortunate to have a relatively robust energy system, at least in terms of keeping the lights on. But we are in almost unprecedented times. There is a recognition that we are where we are and we need to get through the technical, social and economic challenges posed by this coming winter. </p>
<p>Longer term, the UK must address the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-some-of-the-least-energy-efficient-housing-in-europe-heres-how-to-fix-this-151609">energy inefficiency of its homes and businesses</a>, and its reliance on fossil fuels. It must look at how to store more energy and “flatten” times of peak demand in order to change the relationship between demand and supply, while still providing all the services that we demand in our buildings, vehicles and industry. </p>
<p>Doing so will not stop energy crises from happening again, but it will reduce the effects and give us more options from which to find sustainable solutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189280/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Jenkins receives funding from UKRI, Horizon Europe, UK/Scottish Governments. </span></em></p>Energy rationing is possible but unlikely.David Jenkins, Professor of Energy and Buildings, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1885472022-08-15T15:11:22Z2022-08-15T15:11:22ZBritain’s energy price cap was never designed to keep your gas and electricity affordable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479155/original/file-20220815-15-ql9a3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jonmould/5469416596/">Jon Mould / flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The price of gas and electricity is soaring in Britain and many millions of people are likely to be pushed into <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/a-third-of-uk-homes-seen-falling-into-energy-poverty-by-october">fuel poverty</a>. And this is even with an “energy price cap”. Perhaps weirdly to many, nothing has actually gone wrong in terms of what the price cap was designed to do. But something clearly <em>is</em> going wrong since energy is becoming more and more unaffordable.</p>
<p>In short, the cap prevents the retail part of the energy supply chain (the companies that send you a bill) from making excessive profits, but places no restrictions on the production and wholesale parts. And massive increases in wholesale costs since the pandemic and the Ukraine invasion have been passed on to households (and businesses, who are not protected by the cap).</p>
<h2>A problem upstream</h2>
<p>To understand why there has been such a rapid rise in the “price cap”, which after all sounds like something that should be keeping prices under control, we should go back to its origins. In January 2019 the UK government <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46720908">introduced a price cap</a> in the British energy retail market, applying to household users and the companies who bill them for gas and electricity (often referred to as “suppliers”). It means those companies cannot set their prices above a stated level, which is reviewed periodically (every six months so far) by the regulator, Ofgem.</p>
<p>Generally, the price cap has held the average annual household bill at less than £1,200. But the the cap – and therefore household bills – is now rising rapidly and, if there is no change, is expected to be <a href="https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/bills/energy-price-cap-rise-5000-2023-forecast-bills-1789438">more than £4,000</a> by early 2023. </p>
<p>We need to be clear about what the energy price cap was designed to do: to protect households who hadn’t secured a fixed priced contract and find themselves on a supplier’s basic variable default energy tariff. However, this protection is only in terms of ensuring people pay a “fair” retail market price (even if relative to an unfair or unaffordable wider energy market), with bills falling when suppliers’ costs do. </p>
<p>But there are two crucial points. First, the price cap doesn’t apply further upstream, where energy is actually produced and where most of the price rise comes from. Second, it was never designed to keep gas and electricity affordable or to offer any specific protection for those in danger of slipping into <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/articles/what-is-fuel-poverty/">fuel poverty</a>. The price cap is the same for every household, regardless of income.</p>
<h2>What’s gone wrong?</h2>
<p>Just as the price cap forces suppliers to lower the default tariff when their costs fall, it allows them to increase it when their costs rise. This flip-side is important – the first big impact of rising wholesale gas prices earlier in 2022 was when a number of smaller British energy companies providing fixed price deals went <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58662667">out of business</a>, because they couldn’t pass on rising costs in time and didn’t have the financial resilience to weather the storm. </p>
<p>Ofgem has now decided to revisit the price cap more frequently – <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/ofgem-confirms-changes-price-cap-methodology-and-frequency-ahead-new-rate-be-announced-later-month">every three rather than every six months</a> from the start of 2023. If supplier costs were falling, that would work better for households. When those costs are rising, due to factors further up the supply chain, regular updates to the cap will help stop suppliers going out of business but will do little to help their customers pay their bills.</p>
<h2>How the supply chain works</h2>
<p>Gas prices are the main problem as they affect not just gas bills, but <a href="https://www.goodenergy.co.uk/why-does-the-price-of-gas-drive-electricity-prices-including-renewables/">also electricity bills</a>, even when only a small share of electricity is generated using gas. We’ve all heard about numerous and complex constraints on energy supply, not least what’s happened to Europe’s gas supply since Russia – a major supplier of gas – invaded Ukraine. Britain doesn’t actually get much from Russia (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/russia-ukraine-and-uk-energy-factsheet">about 4% in 2021</a>). But that doesn’t matter, because wholesale gas prices are set on global markets and when supply is constrained, global prices rise.</p>
<p>Those high prices do contribute to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62382624">huge profits</a> being declared by some big energy firms – when there are supply shortages, those involved in extracting and trading fossil fuels can increase profits simply by securing a high price for their gas (and oil) on global markets. Crucially, the price cap does not apply at this stage of the supply chain, and there is no requirement to “share the gain” along with the costs. </p>
<h2>So, what can be done?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, not much under the current price cap system. It only applies to the retail market, that part of the energy supply chain that households have their contracts with. The price cap is also a flat rate cap applying to all households, and it’s not designed to act as some kind of social tariff.</p>
<p>Our own analysis at the Centre for Energy Policy shows that <a href="https://www.strath.ac.uk/humanities/centreforenergypolicy/newsblogs/2022/energypriceshocksaug22/">lower income households are being hit hardest</a> by the current energy price shock. The £400 Energy Grant Payment due to roll out from autumn 2022 could offset much of the direct impacts on them under the current price cap but will fall far short when the price cap and bills rocket in September and again in January.</p>
<p>To prevent rising poverty and an increased chance of severe recession, more direct help must be provided in the near term, perhaps along with wider emergency action. However, it is also time to revisit what the energy price cap is designed to do, and how it does it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Turner receives funding from EPSRC and InnovateUK. </span></em></p>The cap prevents energy retailers from making excessive profits, but places no restrictions on other parts of the supply chain.Karen Turner, Professor and Director of the Centre for Energy Policy, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1885482022-08-11T15:10:59Z2022-08-11T15:10:59ZGordon Brown economics versus Liz Truss tax cuts: a new twist in the battle to resolve the UK’s cost of living crisis<p>The ongoing Conservative Party leadership hustings haven’t seen much agreement between candidates, but they have resulted in the creation of a new political narrative: “Gordon Brown economics”. Foreign secretary Liz Truss explained away her rejection of cost of living “handouts” for households with the phrase. But even as she indicated a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/10/liz-truss-refuses-to-rule-out-help-with-energy-bills-in-apparent-u-turn-rishi-sunak">possible u-turn</a> on the issue a day later, Truss continued to reject the former chancellor and prime minister’s economic policy as “taking money from people in taxes and then giving back to them in benefits.”</p>
<p>The key ideological and policy choice confronting our politicians right now is not whether to intervene in the economy but how, when, and on what scale. Their chosen course of action and/or inaction will define British politics for the immediate future, including the likely outcome of the next UK general election. It is hoped that it will also save many households from fuel poverty this winter.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uks-cost-of-living-support-wont-protect-the-poorest-heres-what-the-government-should-do-instead-188416">The UK’s cost of living support won’t protect the poorest – here’s what the government should do instead</a>
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<p>There is no definitive economic policy blueprint for escaping a crisis, but all economic policies require a political and ideological choice. Whether that choice is Gordon Brown economics or Truss tax cuts, every government since the 2007-08 financial crisis – Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat – has addressed crises by injecting large amounts of money into the UK economy. The political precedents of a £2 trillion bailout in response to the 2007-08 financial crisis, and a £407 billion rescue package to surmount the COVID pandemic, have created an expectation that the UK government will now respond to the inflationary fuel crisis with a similar scale of intervention.</p>
<p>Invoking Brown’s name in this discussion is not a complete surprise in the current economic environment. He has recently made public calls for an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/06/fuel-poverty-is-creating-a-left-out-generation-that-will-never-recover-from-the-scars">emergency budget</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/10/tax-profits-freeze-energy-prices-bring-suppliers-into-public-sector-gordon-brown">temporary re-nationalisation</a> of certain energy companies and the scrapping of the UK energy price cap. Brown also oversaw the response to one of the biggest economic crises of recent history during his time as UK leader.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/29/gordon-brown-government-britain-labour">prime minister</a> from June 2007 until Labour’s May 2010 general election defeat, Brown’s government responded to the 2007-08 financial crisis with a <a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/highlights/taxpayer-support-for-uk-banks-faqs/">bailout</a> of failing private banks that peaked at £1,162 billion.</p>
<p>Before this, Brown was <a href="https://oneworld-publications.com/work/best-for-britain/">chancellor of the exchequer</a> in the New Labour Blair government from May 1997 to June 2007. The financial crisis was a direct result of the light-touch, risk-based approach to financial regulation adopted by Brown and Ed Balls, his chief economic advisor, during their decade at the Treasury. This flawed approach was pursued even though, as early as December 1998, Brown had warned of the need for <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_report/1998/10/98/imf/184918.stm">wholesale reform</a> of financial markets and to rediscover public purpose in the global economy.</p>
<p>Brown’s subsequent <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.co.uk/books/Beyond-the-Crash/Gordon-Brown/9780857202871">account</a> of the crisis detailed his realisation that he might have prevented it by trusting his own intellectual judgment and political instincts to reform financial markets. Or at the very least, he could have overseen a much more radical policy response.</p>
<p>This legacy of personal and political regret perhaps explains Brown’s interventions in the current crisis, which has highlighted the inactivity and policy vacuum at the heart of today’s UK government – particularly during the ongoing Tory party leadership contest.</p>
<h2>Addressing the current crisis</h2>
<p>Rapidly rising global energy prices could see Great Britain’s energy price cap (the maximum amount consumers can be charged) rise to £3,582 at the end of August. Typical household energy bills are set to hit £4,266 next year. Discussing this <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62483770">approaching energy crisis</a>, Brown has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/06/fuel-poverty-is-creating-a-left-out-generation-that-will-never-recover-from-the-scars">warned</a> that “if nothing is done before yet another fuel price rise hits in January, the fuel poor could rise to 39 million people in 15 million households – 54% of the country, with big regional variations ranging from 48% in London to 60.8% in Wales and 62% in Scotland”.</p>
<p>Truss – the <a href="https://conservativehome.com/2022/08/04/conhomes-tory-leadership-election-survey-truss-58-per-cent-sunak-26-per-cent-12-per-cent-undecided/">clear frontrunner</a> in the Conservative Party leadership contest – has proposed <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/liz-truss-on-taking-on-rishi-and-what-she-s-do-in-no-10">a series of tax cuts</a> to address this crisis. These include reversing the April 2022 National Insurance increases for employers and employees, and the proposed April 2023 increase in the main rate of corporation tax from 19% to 25%.</p>
<p>She also wants to impose a temporary moratorium on green energy levies on household energy bills. The latter measure would save only £153 per year for a household with average annual energy consumption. Her tax cutting measures have been estimated to cost more than <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/publications/16135">£30 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Truss’s leadership rival, former chancellor Rishi Sunak, has also proposed <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62373675%22">cutting taxes</a>, this time through a drop in the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 16% – but only by the end of the decade, and only after UK inflation has returned to much lower levels. Sunak has also <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-tories-tax-cut-economy-trussonomics/">promised a package</a> of financial support to families, but has not provided precise details.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to assess the merits of each approach without full details, but it is worth referring back to the economic policy responses to two recent major crises: the 2007-08 financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, ongoing since March 2020. The response to both was to inject more money into the UK economy.</p>
<p>In addition to the bank bailout in response to the financial crisis, the Brown government instructed the Bank of England to create <a href="https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/quantitative-easing/#:%7E:text=in%20November%20to-,%C2%A3200%20billion,-.">£200 billion</a> of new money to purchase UK government debt. Injecting cheap cash into the banking system in this way is called <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing">quantitative easing</a>.</p>
<p>The subsequent Cameron-Clegg coalition government sanctioned the creation of an additional <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230305014">£175 billion</a> of new money to stimulate the UK economy, followed by a further <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing">£70 billion</a> from the May government. </p>
<p>In response to the COVID pandemic, the Johnson government – in which Sunak was chancellor and Truss has served as both secretary of state for international trade and now foreign secretary – created a further <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing">£450 billion</a> of new money to help the UK economy avoid a recession or depression. It <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966868/BUDGET_2021_-_web.pdf">sanctioned</a> UK public borrowing of £319.9 billion or 14.8% of GDP in a single financial year (2020-21), and spent £407 billion to support individuals, businesses and public services through the pandemic.</p>
<p>The political and economic precedents have been set. Labour and Conservative governments chose to hand out more than £2 trillion of cash, loans and guarantees to private banks to enable them to recover from the 2007-08 financial crisis, which their own <a href="https://fcic.law.stanford.edu/report">reckless lending and speculation</a> had fostered. This makes it entirely reasonable to expect the UK government to provide millions of individuals, households and companies with the immediate direct financial support they need to survive the cost of living crisis. All that is needed is more urgent political action of the kind Brown is calling for. Those currently in power – or soon to be – should take notice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Previous government bailouts have set a precedent for intervention in the cost of living crisisSimon Lee, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1767192022-04-14T12:53:24Z2022-04-14T12:53:24ZHere’s why UK tides are soon going to play a much bigger part in powering your home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458146/original/file-20220414-18-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5153%2C3824&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Much of the UK's tidal energy infrastructure is based in Scottish waters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/firstministerofscotland/29340448260">First Minister of Scotland/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tidal energy has long lurked at the back of the UK’s renewable energy arsenal, outshone by its wind and solar counterparts due in part to <a href="https://www.imeche.org/news/news-article/feature-uk-missing-opportunity-as-it-swims-against-tidal-energy">early issues</a> with technology readiness and high costs. </p>
<p>Yet with recent research showing it could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2021.0469">provide 11%</a> of the UK’s electricity needs – and with significant <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-government-announces-huge-investment-into-scottish-tidal-power">government investment</a> in the pipeline for UK projects – its future is looking ever brighter.</p>
<p>Tides are large movements of water around the Earth, powered by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-does-the-moon-being-so-far-away-affect-the-tides-on-earth-105371">gravitational pull</a> of the Sun and Moon. In areas with particularly strong tides, we can harvest some of this power using turbines – similar to wind turbines, but underwater – that turn as water flows past them. This approach is more popular at present than previous ideas of using <a href="https://www.alternative-energy-tutorials.com/tidal-energy/tidal-barrage.html">tidal barrages</a> which are similar to dams, mostly because its environmental impacts are less severe.</p>
<p>In the last decade, the global tidal energy industry has demonstrated that siphoning energy from the sea works predictably and reliably. Around a dozen experimental <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/15/a-tidal-turbine-built-in-scotland-is-now-producing-power-in-japan.html">turbine designs</a> have been generating electricity in Scotland, Wales, Canada, China, France and Japan, many of them supplying power to homes and businesses. </p>
<p>The UK’s first “commercial” tidal energy projects, led by developers SIMEC Atlantis and Nova Innovation, both have multi-turbine arrays in the water in Scotland. The <a href="https://simecatlantis.com/projects/meygen/">largest of these</a> can currently produce six megawatts of power: that’s about the same as two or three onshore wind turbines, providing enough energy to run a few thousand homes. Expansion of the project is already underway. Over in the Faroe Islands, tidal developer Minesto has <a href="https://minesto.com/news-media/minesto-launches-tidal-array-build-out-plan-empowering-faroe-islands-towards-100">just announced</a> plans for a 120 megawatt array which would supply 40% of the islands’ energy needs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large turbine with blue blades is suspended from a ship" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458148/original/file-20220414-26-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458148/original/file-20220414-26-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458148/original/file-20220414-26-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458148/original/file-20220414-26-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458148/original/file-20220414-26-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458148/original/file-20220414-26-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458148/original/file-20220414-26-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1 megawatt-capacity tidal turbine is prepared to be installed near Orkney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/greenenergyfutures/8247512157">Green Energy Futures/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tidal turbine designs tend to be divided by one big question: whether it’s best for them to float, or to be mounted on the seabed. Floating turbines are easier to access for maintenance, and they benefit from faster-flowing water near the surface. But those on the seabed are less affected by storms and – in deep enough water – could allow ships to sail freely above them. It’s not yet clear whether one approach will win out, or whether the choice will depend on the location.</p>
<p>Either way, now that it has working technology in its hands, the tidal power industry needs to demonstrate that it can bring costs down. Luckily, there’s precedent here in the story of offshore wind. With the help of government support in the UK and elsewhere, offshore wind developers around the world have cut costs by <a href="https://www.carbontrust.com/resources/policy-innovation-and-cost-reduction-in-uk-offshore-wind">close to a third</a> over the last decade, and further reductions <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/911817/electricity-generation-cost-report-2020.pdf">are expected</a> thanks to ongoing research and development.</p>
<h2>Money matters</h2>
<p>The cost of tidal energy may never be as low as that of wind. That’s partly because tidal turbines can’t be scaled up in size in the same way as wind turbines (in a limited depth of water, you can only build so big), and partly because doing things under the sea is usually more expensive than doing them on the surface (it’s a harsher, less accessible environment). But matching costs may not even be necessary. </p>
<p>As critics are keen to point out, the wind does not always blow, the sun does not always shine, and the tide is not always flowing: so to build a resilient low-carbon electricity system, we’ll need to use <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/climate-change-electricity-energy-security-extreme-weather/">a range</a> of different energy sources rather than relying only on that which is cheapest. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A red boat carrying a turbine out at sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458147/original/file-20220414-24-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458147/original/file-20220414-24-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458147/original/file-20220414-24-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458147/original/file-20220414-24-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458147/original/file-20220414-24-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458147/original/file-20220414-24-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458147/original/file-20220414-24-8uscit.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tidal energy can support other types of renewable energy within a low-carbon system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/inverness_trucker/51660555250/">Glen Wallace/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tidal power offers the unique advantage that while its output will vary over time, that variation is predictable years in advance by understanding the orbits of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/out-on-the-pull-why-the-moon-always-shows-its-face-11500">Earth and Moon</a>. This means that grid operators will be able to plan for the varying output of tidal turbines, and schedule other sources to fill in the gaps.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the UK government seems to be stepping up to help the tidal industry. The latest round of the UK’s “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/contracts-for-difference/contract-for-difference">Contracts for Difference</a>” renewable energy funding contains a “pot” for tidal energy, so that it doesn’t have to compete with cheaper technologies like offshore wind – for now. And the recently published <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/british-energy-security-strategy">British Energy Security Strategy</a> promises rather fiercely to “aggressively explore” tidal and geothermal energy technology.</p>
<p>Tidal energy is never going to be a big player at the global scale in the same way as wind or solar, because only a few parts of the world have strong tides. And unfortunately, it won’t be ready in time to help with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-prices-how-covid-helped-them-to-surge-and-why-they-wont-go-down-any-time-soon-175679">energy price crisis</a> that we face right now. </p>
<p>But for those places with strong tides, including the UK, it has significant prospects, with a global market <a href="https://www.novainnovation.com/markets/">estimated</a> by some analysts at £130 billion. And there may be potential in developing turbine tech further to take advantage of slower, but more consistent, ocean currents like the <a href="https://eos.org/editors-vox/the-kuroshio-current-artery-of-life">Kuroshio current</a> off the coast of Japan.</p>
<p>Tidal energy technology works, and it’s here to stay. Now, the most efficient way to get it powering our homes and businesses is to build more of it.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Waldman is a very minor shareholder in tidal developer Orbital Marine Power. He has previously received research funding in this area from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS).</span></em></p>A tidal energy expert explains why tidal power hasn’t delivered on its potential yet - and why that’s soon to change.Simon Waldman, Lecturer in Renewable Energy, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1809222022-04-13T10:14:20Z2022-04-13T10:14:20ZWhy UK’s ‘treasured free-market economy’ will not achieve net zero<p>As luck would have it, the UK government launched its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/british-energy-security-strategy/british-energy-security-strategy">latest energy security strategy</a> on the same day I’d arranged to get cavity wall insulation installed in our ex-council, end-of-terrace 1930s family home. </p>
<p>Not that there was much connection between those two things. Our house is one of <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-numbers-that-lay-bare-the-mammoth-effort-needed-to-insulate-britains-homes-162540">26 million reasons why</a> something needs to be done about Britain’s leaky housing stock. The government’s strategy was conspicuously silent on any policies to achieve it. Nothing at all, for instance, to replace the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/27/uk-government-scraps-green-homes-grant-after-six-months">short-lived Green Homes Grant</a> scheme, launched in July 2020 and scrapped in March 2021 amid vague accusations of bureaucratic failure. </p>
<p>Our own upgrade had missed that window. It cost me a host of unanswered emails, labyrinthine websites and pushy sales calls to find someone I could trust. But I knew from the work they’d done upgrading our loft insulation that these guys were efficient, professional and courteous. A small family-owned company run by three brothers. I liked them. </p>
<p>I asked the oldest brother (let’s call him Asif) what he thought of the support for household energy efficiency in the UK. Or the lack of it. “I’ll tell you something,” he told me. “When the Green Homes Grant was running we had three times as many teams out on the road as we do today”. All the more damning then, that there was nothing new in this strategy to help their cause. </p>
<p>Work that I and many others carried out over more than 30 years ago has shown that <a href="https://timjackson.org.uk/ecological-economics/cost-curve-methodology/">improving energy efficiency</a> is one of the most cost-effective ways of reducing energy consumption, avoiding carbon emissions and bringing down household bills. So why is it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/28/britain-homes-energy-crisis-governments-insulation-low-carbon-heating">so difficult</a> for the government to take it seriously?</p>
<h2>The British way?</h2>
<p>The day before the strategy was launched, Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng shed a curious light on the puzzle. During an online <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/delivering-great-britains-energy-security">speech to the Harvard Kennedy School</a> he highlighted what he called “the British way”. Dismissing outright anything that smacked of a “planned economy”, he insisted on “the power of our treasured free-market economy to leverage private capital and unleash Britain’s unique entrepreneurial spirit to grow new industries”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="rooftops with church and trees in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457435/original/file-20220411-24-ceflb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UK homes are among Europe’s worst-insulated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/35mmman/29612094881/in/photolist-M7HJ92-62MMZo-73aTTF-NB37Am-2kbHo2V-C4TkXD-JZgFRN-d499gC-bJuZjx-DJBQNG-iKUkRR-e1qoLf-2h7hHkP-7Pmi62-qD2Gbg-gtrfrh-2h7jqZr-7VVC96-vsA8pi-EuxfPM-6bTaUW-vsWmYt-fMBWva-cjoW7h-7WfwWa-22AhEVs-2gjb9r3-5sUY8J-9bLirj-2cPgie-fMUxe7-ECLfsz-e2ydrv-vb92HR-7peGp9-8ht37K-5Zo1G5-Akh72-6bPVME-zbdmv-MJhxbp-fMBYLk-6FnfnU-XZbiYC-92D9QZ-8QBJem-p4fmAj-7W5st-GzvNJJ-8Lbc2R">35mmMan / flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If Asif and his brothers had been listening, they might have felt a tremor of hope. But apparently they weren’t the kind of entrepreneurs Kwarteng was thinking of. “Expensive gas is the problem,” he told the Kennedy School. “Cheap, clean, homegrown energy is the solution”.</p>
<p>Strange then, that the flagship of the new strategy turned out to be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/06/pm-to-put-nuclear-power-at-heart-of-uks-energy-strategy">nuclear power</a>, which is neither clean nor cheap – nor even home-grown. In 2013, 25 years after the newly-privatised electricity market refused to have anything to do with nuclear power, the UK’s coalition government offered French and Chinese contractors a hefty subsidy to start building the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-announce-new-cost-increase-delay-hinkley-point-nuclear-plant-2022-03-28/">Hinkley Point C reactor</a> in Somerset. After numerous delays and pernicious cost-overruns it won’t be in service until at least 2027. Five years from now. Nuclear will do nothing for today’s pressing energy security needs. It will be no relief at all to households struggling with soaring energy bills. </p>
<p>Beyond that great white elephant, the strategy held out a vote of confidence in offshore wind energy, gave a nod of long-term support for hydrogen and made a gesture of goodwill towards that other <a href="https://www.edie.net/uk-government-orders-review-of-fracking-in-lead-up-to-energy-security-strategy/">highly contested technology</a>: fracking. </p>
<p>In a partial roll-back of David Cameron’s effective moratorium on onshore wind energy, it also graciously allowed communities to be consulted about their desire to accept wind farms in exchange for lower energy bills. As I first found out when I was giving evidence to an inquiry into an earlier Hinkley Point proposal way back in 1988, that was something Denmark had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/aug/10/denmark-renewable-wind-farm-energy">implemented seamlessly</a> decades ago. </p>
<h2>Few specific policies</h2>
<p>The strangest aspect of the strategy was the almost complete absence of anything that looked even vaguely like an actual policy. Or even a strategy. “Clear long-term signals” was the best to be had. But no new money attached to any specific target. Presumably that would have looked way too much like a planned economy. Not at all the British way. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cranes and buildings on far side of water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457460/original/file-20220411-16-5ljymf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hinkley Point C won’t be finished for another five years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mifl68/51321283078/">mifl68/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Strangely though, planning was allowed in the form of a new <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/british-energy-security-strategy/british-energy-security-strategy">Future System Operator</a> to “drive our overall transition and oversee the UK energy system”. In a long-overdue recognition that an unfettered energy market hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of managing the perfect storm of climate change, energy security and spiralling gas prices, this as yet undefined role is definitely going to need some kind of plan – and soon. </p>
<p>When you put Kwarteng’s fine words together with the failure to offer real support to the most basic and cost-effective solutions, you can’t help thinking this was just an exercise in half-hearted forward guidance. A noncommittal attempt, on the basis of flawed ideological assumptions, to “leverage private capital” in place of meaningful government policy. Or in other words to point financial wealth towards what might one day become publicly-subsidised, above-market rates of return for the lucky few. </p>
<p>As for ordinary households struggling with escalating bills, well, there is still a grant scheme to offset £5,000 from the cost of an <a href="https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/10/government-to-offer-p5-000-grant-per-household-to-help-them-repl/">air source heat pump</a>. I looked into it. For our now well-insulated house, we’d have to find around £6,000 on top of the grant and could expect to save £40 a year, giving a princely payback time of 150 years. </p>
<p>Asif told me something else as he checked one more house off the UK’s “most leaky” list. The only time they were busier than during the Green Homes Grant scheme was when <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58916326">Insulate Britain</a> glued themselves to the M25 motorway. </p>
<p>Whatever the government says it’s doing – and not doing – one thing is clear. The “treasured free-market economy” is never going to compensate for our failure to insulate people’s homes against the cold, the world against Putin’s atrocities, and the future against the ravages of climate change. I’m off to buy some glue.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Jackson receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council</span></em></p>The new energy security strategy still doesn’t take energy efficiency seriously.Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainable Development and Director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP), University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1803652022-04-07T18:59:01Z2022-04-07T18:59:01ZEnergy strategy: expensive nuclear power push ignores chance to cut costs of UK’s electricity system<p>The high global gas price has quadrupled the wholesale energy price for consumers across the UK over the last six months, with those on default tariffs paying by direct debit likely to see their average <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/price-cap-increase-ps693-april">annual bill rise</a> by £693, from £1,277 to £1,971. </p>
<p>To begin insulating the public from volatile gas prices, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-acceleration-of-homegrown-power-in-britains-plan-for-greater-energy-independence">the government plans</a> to accelerate the pace at which it is deploying renewable energy and low-carbon technologies. That means an increase in the nation’s offshore wind capacity from 11 gigawatts (GW) today to 50GW by 2050 – 10GW more than its previous target – and eight new nuclear power stations. </p>
<p>Yet apart from a promised five-fold increase in solar power generation by 2035, the strategy sets no target for generating electricity from some of the country’s cheapest sources, like onshore wind.</p>
<p>The government may defend its decision to ramp up the production of nuclear power as support for a home-grown and reliable source of energy. But some of that hefty investment would be unnecessary if Britain reorganised its energy system to make the most of the nation’s abundant renewable electricity instead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-prices-how-to-ensure-consumers-dont-pay-for-the-next-energy-crisis-168611">Gas prices: how to ensure consumers don't pay for the next energy crisis</a>
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<p>When the price of a commodity like a soft drink goes up, production can be ramped up fairly rapidly to respond to spot market conditions, which quickly lowers prices again. Building a new nuclear power plant or offshore wind farm is quite different, requiring major investment and the certainty that there will be a reasonable return on upfront investment from selling energy over 30 to 40 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind turbines arranged in a row far out at sea." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456878/original/file-20220407-18-ij3q5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456878/original/file-20220407-18-ij3q5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456878/original/file-20220407-18-ij3q5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456878/original/file-20220407-18-ij3q5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456878/original/file-20220407-18-ij3q5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456878/original/file-20220407-18-ij3q5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456878/original/file-20220407-18-ij3q5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cost of building an offshore wind farm has plummeted, but onshore wind is cheaper.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/farm-614836703">KKFoto/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In the UK, governments can intervene in the capacity market to ensure a secure electricity supply by paying for <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/electricity-market-reform-capacity-market">reliable sources</a>, which provides the long-term certainty necessary to build sufficient generating capacity. Financial backing changes to reflect <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005447/enabling-high-renewable-net-zero-electricity-system.pdf">the state’s priorities</a>, and the drive for eight new nuclear reactors is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/28/boris-johnsons-energy-strategy-funding-row-with-rishi-sunak">reported</a> to cost the public £13 billion.</p>
<p>Building wind farms and nuclear plants is just the first step though. The speed at which they be can integrated into electrical networks and operated to be in tune with power, transport and heat demand is what will actually decide when energy prices stabilise.</p>
<p>Wind and solar energy sources cannot change their output to match the minute-by-minute needs of customers. System operators must either instruct renewable generators to dump some of their energy when demand is low but wind and sunshine is high, or ask fossil power plants to fire up and fill the gap when demand is too much for becalmed wind turbines to meet. </p>
<p>The cost of the former is around £20 million a day. The annual cost of balancing the energy system in this way reached a record £1.2 billion in 2021, up from 5% of the wholesale energy cost in 2010 to <a href="https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/homepage?&_k=vujwqc">20% today</a>. </p>
<p>How to get inflexible, low-carbon energy to homes and businesses reliably and cheaply is as important as building new, reliable sources. And on that count, making <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/digitalising-our-energy-system-for-net-zero-strategy-and-action-plan">more effective use</a> of renewable sources – and reducing energy demand overall – would mean the country could afford to build less nuclear power, which is one of the few low-carbon sources which <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower-idUSKBN1W909J">hasn’t become substantially cheaper</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A gloved hand holds a tool injecting cavity wall insulation into brickwork." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456879/original/file-20220407-19-ul8962.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456879/original/file-20220407-19-ul8962.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456879/original/file-20220407-19-ul8962.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456879/original/file-20220407-19-ul8962.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456879/original/file-20220407-19-ul8962.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456879/original/file-20220407-19-ul8962.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456879/original/file-20220407-19-ul8962.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Saving energy is possible through efficiency measures like installing cavity wall insulation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/house-being-insulated-by-injecting-microbead-1894972093">Corlaffra/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>New technologies</h2>
<p>One way to increase customer demand for renewable and low-carbon energy when it’s abundant and reduce it when generation is tight is to incentivise storage technologies.</p>
<p>For example, if electric vehicles are charged up when there is plenty of wind and solar power being generated, 40GW of offshore renewable energy would be enough to power the country’s <a href="https://newcastle-my.sharepoint.com/personal/nla22_newcastle_ac_uk/_layouts/15/onedrive.aspx?id=/personal/nla22_newcastle_ac_uk/Documents/M&R%2520Policy%2520Paper.pdf&parent=/personal/nla22_newcastle_ac_uk/Documents&ga=1">entire vehicle fleet</a> without any of it going to waste. </p>
<p>To help harmonise Britain’s energy demand with periods when renewable output is high, the government could invest in digital technologies such as smart meters and set up new tariffs which can send price signals to EV chargers. It could also invest in improving the short-term forecasting of solar and wind output. These changes would make distributors aware of customer needs and help customers alleviate stress on the system.</p>
<p>While electric vehicle batteries can manage the variability of renewable output, Britain’s energy system also needs fixed storage – like grid-scale batteries which, unlike the government’s favoured solution of hydrogen fuel, are capable of very fast response times to manage sudden changes.</p>
<p>Enabling millions of electric vehicles and <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-you-get-a-heat-pump-heres-how-they-compare-to-a-gas-boiler-151493">heat pumps</a> to tap into nuclear energy and renewable power generated in the remote North Sea is no small undertaking – it requires urgent changes in how the UK’s energy system operates. </p>
<p>For instance, using passenger electric vehicles to help manage renewable output will require access to personal data, such as the location of a vehicle when it is plugged in, or real-time energy use in a customer’s home. Rules need establishing to assure customers that this data will be protected rather than abused and used for anything other than system management.</p>
<p>But the energy strategy offers little in navigating the complexity of integrating EVs in garages with wind farms offshore. The result could be a fragmented system – unreliable and costly to maintain as decarbonisation intensifies.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Failure to make the most of Britain’s abundant renewables will mean a costly and unreliable energy supply.Furong Li, Reader in Electrical Systems, University of BathNigel Turvey, Visiting Senior Industrial Fellow in Electrical Engineering, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1764432022-04-05T13:52:27Z2022-04-05T13:52:27ZEnergy bills: why yours is now so expensive, and where all the money goes<p>Energy prices in the UK have soared thanks to a big rise in the price cap for domestic customers set by regulator Ofgem. This follows a smaller increase in the price cap in October 2021. </p>
<p>The NGO <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/energy-crisis/">National Energy Action</a> estimates that 16% of UK homes were already in fuel poverty, and with the price cap rise this will jump to a whopping 24% – almost a quarter of all households unable to adequately heat their homes. That’s 6.5 million households, staggering for a developed country. </p>
<p>The reason for the rise is quite simple: gas is almost four times more expensive than this time last year. The UK is a net importer, and delivery from suppliers such as Norway, Qatar and Russia is significantly more expensive due to a global demand increase over the past year. The gas market is further impacted by European efforts to move away from Russian supplies following the invasion of Ukraine. These issues affect the price of natural gas used for both heating and electricity, since natural gas is also used to generate about a third of Britain’s electricity.</p>
<h2>What contributes to the cost of energy?</h2>
<p>The price of energy is <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/price-cap-increase-ps693-april">made up of several different things</a>. The biggest chunk is the wholesale cost of electricity and gas which your supplier will buy through markets from the companies who own the power plants, or from gas importers. Then there are the costs to run the national and local electricity and gas networks, VAT, the cost of technologies such as smart meters, policy costs for things like energy efficiency schemes, and the profits made by energy companies.</p>
<p>As you can see in the figure below from Ofgem, a typical household paying by direct debit will see a bill increase from £1,277 to £1,971. Most of that increase is down to the price of gas, which has doubled the wholesale price of energy in the bill, from around £500-worth of the previous bill, to more than £1,000.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart with breakdown of energy costs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455786/original/file-20220401-13-rshwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Breakdown of costs in the energy price cap: (based on dual fuel customer paying by direct debit, typical energy use)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/price-cap-increase-ps693-april">Ofgem</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Networks are the next biggest cost, making up around £371 of the new cap – an increase of 39%. Part of the increase in network cost is because many smaller energy suppliers have gone bust recently, and when a supplier goes bust, other companies are asked to take on their customers. The suppliers who do this are known as the “<a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news-and-views/blog/how-youre-protected-when-energy-firms-collapse">supplier of last resort</a>”. Because they may have costs which can’t be recovered when they take on new customers, the cost is spread over everyone’s bills.</p>
<p>Operating costs cover the general costs of customer services and billing, as well as a profit margin. Big profits being reported by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-records-highest-profit-eight-years-2021-2022-02-08">the likes of Shell and BP</a> are primarily because of the sales of oil and gas they are making in the wholesale market, so this is different to the profits of your energy supplier. </p>
<p>Much has been said on ways to cut the policy costs, which will be slightly lower under the new price cap. This is not only limited in impact on bills, since the policy measures make up just 8% of the price cap, but also shortsighted. These policy measures are to support energy efficiency measures and renewable energy technologies, exactly the stuff desperately needed to reduce reliance on gas (although the policy is paid for from electricity bills). In fact, policy cuts back in 2013 are estimated to now be costing UK energy bill payers <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutting-the-green-crap-has-added-2-5bn-to-uk-energy-bills">£2.5bn</a>.</p>
<h2>So what can we do?</h2>
<p>One argument is that the UK should produce more gas within its own borders. But this won’t solve the problem, since gas is a global commodity and prices in the UK are determined based on global trades, regardless of where the gas is extracted. UK-produced gas exports to mainland Europe in October 2021 were <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends">more than four times</a> that of the previous October simply because it was more profitable.</p>
<p>Clearly, to reduce its exposure to gas prices the UK needs to use less gas, either by using a different fuel for heating, lighting and cooking, or by simply using less energy in the first place. </p>
<p>To use less, the country needs a programme of energy efficiency measures and it needs it urgently. This programme needs to tackle those households most in need first – colleagues and I have shown that energy efficiency improvements enable home owners to afford to heat their homes for <a href="https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/abs/10.1680/ensu.10.00050">longer periods of the day</a> – and we need to work out a fair way to pay for these improvements. Using less energy is a win-win, since it reduces reliance on natural gas, supports the transition to net zero, and reduces energy bills. </p>
<p>Though the government has announced some measures to plaster over the problem, none clearly target those most in need. The divide between rich and poor in the UK is expanding. The price of energy and its associated impact on cost of living is a ticking time bomb which we must tackle, to reduce inequality and raise living standards for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara Walker receives funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council for her research. </span></em></p>More than 6 million UK households may now be unable to heat their homes.Sara Walker, Professor of Energy, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1752812022-03-03T16:16:30Z2022-03-03T16:16:30ZHow to lower your bills with a better grasp of home energy use<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449572/original/file-20220302-27-r6lsks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=153%2C115%2C8402%2C5580&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The energy market is hot.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-heating-radiator-model-house-knitted-1497882884">Shutterstock/Andrey_Popov</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The future does not look bright for energy bills, with fuel poverty set to affect over <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/energy-crisis/fuel-poverty-statistics-explainer/">6 million UK households in 2022</a>. And industry consensus appears to be that prices currently <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/price-cap-increase-ps693-april">squeezing homes and businesses</a> will not come down any time soon.</p>
<p>What to do about this is not straightforward. Cold homes are responsible <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/355790/Briefing7_Fuel_poverty_health_inequalities.pdf">for over 20%</a> of excess winter deaths in the UK, and the cause of serious <a href="https://9tj4025ol53byww26jdkao0x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/E3G_NEA_Cold_homes_and_excess_winter_deaths_2018.02.pdf">physical and mental illness</a>. </p>
<p>One energy company was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/jan/10/do-star-jumps-uk-energy-supplier-sse-criticised-over-keep-warm-advice">roundly criticised</a> for its response to the crisis when it advised customers cuddling a pet and doing star jumps. This was a clumsy response to a serious problem, but changing our behaviour can often help reduce our bills. </p>
<p>One aspect of this is a better understanding of energy usage. </p>
<p>During the course of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629616301852">our research</a> into improving energy efficiency, we noticed some common gaps in people’s general understanding of the best way to use the electricity and gas coming into their homes. In other words, what we call “energy literacy” was <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/core-cities-green-deal-monitoring-project-leeds">fairly low</a>. </p>
<p>There are many for example, who think that turning the thermostat higher makes the house warm up quicker. In fact, the speed doesn’t change – it just means the heating stays on longer to reach a higher temperature, using more energy. </p>
<p>It is also common for people not to fully comprehend heating control systems, some of which can be quite complex, featuring timers, zones and boosters. This can lead to over or under-heating parts of a house, resulting in wasted energy and varying levels of comfort. </p>
<p>Energy “illiteracy” can also mean a lack of understanding about the varying costs of keeping homes warm. Often people assume (usually wrongly) that their gas central heating is the most expensive option, so resort to what they believe are cheaper alternatives. </p>
<p>This might mean using portable electric room heaters instead of radiators, which can end up costing more. For despite the recent spike in the cost of gas, electricity is still currently around <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-advice-households/costs-your-energy-bill">four times as expensive</a> as gas. </p>
<p>We have even seen instances of people avoiding using the central heating and opting instead to use the gas hob in their kitchens as a heat source (which is highly dangerous as well as extremely inefficient). </p>
<p>Understanding fuel bills themselves is a part of energy literacy too. Where a single “dual fuel” payment is made, it may not be clear how much a customer is spending on gas versus electricity. Often estimates are used instead of actual readings, and the smart meter roll out has been <a href="https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/10/energy-smart-meter-installation-roll-out-faces-further-setbacks/">anything but smooth</a>. </p>
<p>Also, energy bills are usually spread out evenly over the year, so the amount householders pay per month isn’t directly linked to how much gas they used that month. This adds another layer of separation between householders, their energy use and the bills they pay. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A burning gas hob." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449580/original/file-20220302-15-n19fi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449580/original/file-20220302-15-n19fi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449580/original/file-20220302-15-n19fi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449580/original/file-20220302-15-n19fi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449580/original/file-20220302-15-n19fi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449580/original/file-20220302-15-n19fi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449580/original/file-20220302-15-n19fi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Still cheaper than electricity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flaming-gas-residential-stove-closeups-strongly-2099379772">Shutterstock/Andrzej Rostek</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421518307882">Our research</a> also found some customers’ decisions may be costing them money. We analysed the energy consumption of customers on off-peak tariffs (often called Economy 7) and found that they were often unable to take advantage of the cheaper rates and instead ended up using most energy during peak times. This meant they ended up paying more than if they had switched to a standard single tariff rate. </p>
<p>To a certain extent then, there are some steps people can take to deal with rising prices from improving their understanding of things like bills, tariffs and thermostats. </p>
<h2>Lower bills are expensive</h2>
<p>Another approach is to improve home insulation, although this <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/656866/BEIS_Update_of_Domestic_Cost_Assumptions_031017.pdf">can be costly</a>. Installing loft insulation in an average three bed semi-detached home for example, could cost around £1,500, while solid wall insulation can be over £14,000. </p>
<p>But with <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/972027/deep-literature-review.pdf">annual savings</a> of only around £40 for loft insulation or perhaps a few hundred pounds for the most solid wall retrofits, earning the money back through savings takes decades. This can make it an unattractive option, especially as it is uncertain whether or not those improvements add resale value to homes. </p>
<p>The popular alternative to gas central heating, electric heat pumps, are also expensive (and currently being supported by a £450 million <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plan-to-drive-down-the-cost-of-clean-heat">government subsidy</a>).</p>
<p>For although heat pumps can be around three times <a href="https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/advice/in-depth-guide-to-heat-pumps/">more effective</a> at delivering heat for every unit of energy they use, this is offset by electricity being around four times the cost of gas. </p>
<p>Switching to heat pumps could therefore actually increase household heating bills, while installing them can cost more than four times the price of fitting a gas boiler. </p>
<p>The future of heating then, is expensive. To reach the UK’s 2050 <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/heat-and-buildings-strategy">zero carbon targets</a>, it has been <a href="https://www.constructionleadershipcouncil.co.uk/news/national-retrofit-strategy-v2-launches/">suggested</a> that a long-term national retrofit strategy (where existing homes are made more energy efficient), supported by a tenfold increase in government spending on home improvements, will be needed. </p>
<p>In the meantime, a small but achievable first step would be taken if energy literacy was widely improved. This would empower people to make better decisions about how they heat their homes – and how they can deal with the energy price hikes heading their way in the coming months and years. For any new government action or investment will take many years to have an effect – and be too late for many householders struggling with rising fuel bills today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175281/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Glew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Learn to avoid paying more than you need to – without having to put up with being cold.David Glew, Head of Energy Efficiency and Policy, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1562252021-08-05T10:44:39Z2021-08-05T10:44:39ZWhy the UK’s unfair energy market is unlikely to spearhead a green transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414769/original/file-20210805-25-hzjc05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4912%2C3264&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/double-exposure-electric-pole-sky-stock-1157896027">Art Stock Creative/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of people will pay more for gas and electricity in the UK by the autumn of 2021 as the energy regulator, Ofgem, has removed a cap on prices. For some households, this could mean bills rising by as much as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/aug/06/millions-of-great-britain-homes-face-highest-energy-bills-in-a-decade">£153 (US$212) a year</a>, potentially pushing <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/31/calls-for-social-tariff-on-uk-energy-bills-as-rises-push-extra-half-million-homes-into-fuel-poverty">an extra 500,000 homes</a> into fuel poverty.</p>
<p>Those heftier energy bills also fund much of the UK government’s flagship policies for the low-carbon transition. On top of their energy use, every home in the country is paying extra on their bill to cover the cost of retrofitting programmes to increase the energy efficiency of homes, help for those in fuel poverty and subsidies for renewable generation. All of these costs are added to energy bills at a flat rate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bar chart showing cost of green policy as share of income from each income group." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396077/original/file-20210420-15-lxuwos.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Who foots the bill for decarbonisation?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1773754">Owen & Barret/Climate Policy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.ippr.org/publications/when-the-levy-breaks-energy-bills-green-levies-and-a-fairer-low-carbon-transition">a 2015 report</a>, this means, in practice, that those on the lowest incomes pay a six times higher share of their income for the transition than the highest income group, who also happen to have the <a href="http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/chancelpiketty2015.pdf">highest CO₂ emissions</a> on average.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bar chart comparing energy use between different income groups." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396078/original/file-20210420-21-1wkxryc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Higher income groups use significantly more energy than those on lower incomes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ippr.org/publications/when-the-levy-breaks-energy-bills-green-levies-and-a-fairer-low-carbon-transition">Garman & Aldridge/IPPR</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Through energy bills, people in the lowest income groups effectively self-fund their own fuel poverty support, including measures like <a href="https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme">the warm home discount</a> – a one-off winter payment of £140 towards energy bills – while also paying towards measures that mainly benefit <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1773754">higher income groups</a>, like subsidies for rooftop solar panels.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/bboardman.html">Academic Brenda Boardman</a> warned about this problem in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/030626199390061S">the 1990s</a>. Not only is this not a fair way to fund the national effort to decarbonise the UK’s energy system, but that same unfairness is slowing the speed and reducing the motivation for a transition in the first place.</p>
<h2>The big fix</h2>
<p>The UK’s energy market is dominated by six multinational corporations. On the website of Ofgem, the energy regulator, <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/investigations">a page</a> documents the multiple infractions of these companies, known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/big-six-energy-companies-16080">the Big Six</a>, from their <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1024529420964933">treatment of vulnerable customers</a> to their failure to fulfil obligations to reduce the carbon intensity of their gas and electricity.</p>
<p>Ofgem’s answer is a voluntary <a href="https://energyredress.org.uk/about-us">redress scheme</a> which companies under investigation pay into. This often funds programmes which advise vulnerable customers, such as the chronically ill, on how to navigate an (often intentionally) bewildering energy market. Npower paid <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/npower-pay-ps26m-failing-treat-customers-fairly">a record fine</a> in 2015 of £26 million. The total number of fines and redress payments made in 2020 <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/compliance-and-enforcement">reached £71.3 million</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-who-cant-heat-their-homes-need-energy-justice-not-fuel-bank-charity-40778">People who can't heat their homes need energy justice – not 'fuel bank' charity</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>Had this money been spent directly on low-cost renewable generation, <a href="https://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDExplained">57 megawatts of wind energy</a> could have been installed, enough to power around 40,000 homes annually. </p>
<p>These six companies made profits of nearly <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5773de34e5274a0da3000113/final-report-energy-market-investigation.pdf">£2 billion</a> in 2015 from their standard tariffs. People are often placed on these automatically and tend to remain on them, with only the most nimble customers (<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/699937/modernising-consumer-markets-green-paper.pdf">around 30% in 2016</a>) switching. The government <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/699937/modernising-consumer-markets-green-paper.pdf">noted</a> that those least likely to switch to cheaper tariffs earn less than £18,000 a year, are aged 65 and over, with a disability, or live in social housing or the private rented sector. As a result, a significant proportion of these profits are extracted from those <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2008/10/energy-supply-probe---initial-findings-report.pdf">least able to pay</a>.</p>
<p>In fact, many people living in private rentals and social housing (20% and 17% of the population <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/ukprivaterentedsector/2018#main-points">respectively</a>) are effectively <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519300102">excluded</a> from the choice of installing the solar panels and electric vehicle charging points their energy bills finance, because such freedoms tend to depend on home ownership.</p>
<p>UK consumers also pay some of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/energy-market-investigation">highest pre-tax rates</a> for electricity in Europe, and energy costs in general are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-of-energy-independent-review">higher than they should be</a> considering falling gas prices since 2014 and more efficient boilers and smart meters. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-consumers/energy-advice-households/costs-your-energy-bill">third of the bill</a> which pays for the maintenance and environmental upgrade of energy infrastructure is taken at the same rate from billionaires as it is from those on Universal Credit. People without solar panels will continue paying for the essential network changes that incorporate the growing amount of renewable energy, and those who cannot afford to swap their fossil fuel burning car for an electric vehicle could end up having to travel further and emit more to get fuel, as retailers cease supplying or <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519300102">close their facilities</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bar chart comparing pre-and post-tax electricity prices in EU countries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396079/original/file-20210420-17-60vm8k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity prices from July to December 2015, including and excluding tax (p/kWh).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/energy-market-investigation">UK Government</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While consumers fund measures which cut emissions from the UK’s energy system through bills, government policies effectively subsidise fossil fuels, mostly through <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1461452920960349">forgone tax revenue</a>. These UK subsidies result in effective investment in fossil fuel production of €11.6 billion a year, compared to the €7.76 billion <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1461452920960349">invested in renewables</a>. In this situation, the renewables consumers fund are more likely to add to the energy generated by fossil fuels, rather than replace it.</p>
<p>At the same time, renewable subsidies like <a href="https://www.gov.uk/feed-in-tariffs">the feed-in-tariff</a>, which paid people for the excess energy they generated with solar panels, have been axed. This makes it harder for people to pay to install solar power at home. Clearly, the transition to low-carbon energy could be quicker if government policy didn’t work against the best intentions of the public. </p>
<p>And the public are aware. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629618311988">One study</a> in 2019 found widespread misgivings about excessive profits, a lack of transparency and close ties between the government and big energy companies. If people don’t trust the institutions tasked with overseeing the end of the fossil fuel era, how will they be persuaded to make the necessary <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/behaviour-change-public-engagement-and-net-zero-imperial-college-london/">changes</a> to their own lives?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156225/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Towers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The cost of decarbonising the UK’s energy system is falling disproportionately on the poorest.Lee Towers, PhD Candidate in Energy and Politics, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1523602021-01-22T17:18:27Z2021-01-22T17:18:27ZBritain’s electricity use is at its lowest for decades – but will never be this low again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380218/original/file-20210122-21-1yba3pi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukasz Pajor / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2020, Britain’s electrical use was the lowest it had been since 1983. This wasn’t entirely due to COVID – <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-electricity-generation-2018-falls-to-lowest-since-1994">demand for electricity had been falling</a> for more than a decade anyway, thanks to savings from energy-efficient appliances, moving industry offshore and consumers becoming more careful as costs increased. </p>
<p>But demand will bounce back after COVID. And the electrification of transport and heat, both critical to achieving net-zero emissions, will require lots more electricity in future. </p>
<p>We have looked at the data for electricity use in Great Britain (Northern Ireland is part of a single market on the island of Ireland) over the past year and we believe that there will never again be a year when so little electricity is used.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Britain daily electrical demand 2019 versus 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377363/original/file-20210106-13-qwbxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>COVID meant less electricity use</h2>
<p>Pandemic measures reduced the overall amount of electricity used by 6% in 2020, to the lowest level since 1983. When you look at usage per person the fall in recent years is even more extreme. To find a similar level of electricity use per capita you would have to go back more than 50 years to a time when black and white TVs were still the norm.</p>
<p><iframe id="VKMUO" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VKMUO/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Overall, 2020 was not a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/946270/ET_7.2_DEC_20.xls">particularly windy year</a> but wind still managed to generate more than a quarter of Britain’s electrical energy. Broadly speaking, generation from other renewables and coal were all similar to 2019. Reductions in generation came mostly from gas, while nuclear output also dropped to its lowest level since 1982. Net imports were also down on recent years. </p>
<p>From a climate perspective, major power production was coal-free for more than 5,000 hours in 2020 – more than half the year. This meant the electricity that was generated was on average <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-30/britain-got-its-cleanest-electricity-ever-during-lockdown">Britain’s cleanest ever</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="QRCEe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QRCEe/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The chart above and table below show that over the past decade, Britain has switched its electricity generation from coal to gas and renewables. The challenge is to continue to substitute the remaining fossil-fuels while at the same time increasing the total amount generated.</p>
<p><iframe id="BzetY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BzetY/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>How to power millions of electric cars?</h2>
<p>Britain will need to generate more electricity because low-carbon transport and heating rely on it. To get a sense of the scale of the electricity needed for transport, let’s imagine what would happen if all cars and taxis suddenly went electric. </p>
<p>Cars and taxis currently travel nearly <a href="https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/summary">280 billion miles</a> a year in Great Britain. Multiply that by the <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=noform&path=1&year1=2020&year2=2021&vtype=Electric&pageno=1&rowLimit=50">24-25 kilowatt hours per 100 miles</a> that the current best electrical vehicles technologies can reach, and you have a total of around 70+ terawatt hours of electricity needed each year (interestingly, a similar value to the total amount of wind generation in 2020). </p>
<p>Generating enough electricity to cover these cars and taxis – even ignoring other forms of transport – would take Britain’s annual demand back up to its peak year in 2005. </p>
<h2>From gas to electricity</h2>
<p>Unlike the trend towards much cleaner power generation, more than 80% of the energy used to provide warmth in Britain is still provided by burning fossil fuels, most commonly through a gas boiler. As with transport, decarbonisation will mean shifting a significant portion of this energy demand from fossil fuel to electricity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white box on a wall with copper pipes coming out of it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380225/original/file-20210122-15-116kbvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gas boilers are still used to heat most homes in Britain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">lovemydesigns / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Specifically, this will mean replacing gas boilers with a variety of <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-you-get-a-heat-pump-heres-how-they-compare-to-a-gas-boiler-151493">heat pumps</a>. These devices use electricity to extract ambient thermal energy from the surroundings – the air or the ground – and to “pump” this heat into a building. Around <a href="https://www.westernpower.co.uk/downloads-view-reciteme/128938#:%7E:text=In%202019%20BEIS%20reported%20heat,for%20Climate%20Change%20(CCC).">28,000</a> heat pumps were installed in 2019, though the government’s target is to fit <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-ten-point-plan-for-a-green-industrial-revolution/title">600,000 a year</a> by 2028. Clearly a massive and sustained increase in deployment will be required. </p>
<p>Just as electric vehicles require less energy than petrol cars, heat pumps require <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0143624420975707">less input energy than their fossil fuel counterparts</a>. Despite this efficiency benefit, the decarbonisation of heat will probably still require Britain to generate hundreds of terawatt hours more electricity every year. The exact amount ultimately depends on the mix of different low-carbon heating technologies and reduction in heat demand from climate change and building improvements.</p>
<p>All this extra electricity will have to be carefully managed to avoid the network being overloaded at peak times. Demand for heat is currently seen as less flexible, and it always will be highly seasonal – people want warm houses in colder weather, during the daytime. This differs markedly from transport, which shows a much more consistent pattern of demand throughout the course of the year (notwithstanding the temporary impacts of COVID). </p>
<p>Managing that extra electricity isn’t impossible: users can be provided with incentives to shift their behaviour (why not charge your car overnight, or on particularly windy days when electricity is clean and cheap?), and <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2017.00019/full">longer-term energy storage options</a> are being developed. Innovations such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-heat-can-be-used-to-store-renewable-energy-130549">thermal energy storage</a> and <a href="https://www.activebuildingcentre.com">active buildings</a> also aim to provide more flexibility to heating. </p>
<p>For those of us who study energy systems, it’s an exciting time. As demand from transport and heat increases, Great Britain will never again use as little electricity as it did in 2020 – and as this means using less fossil fuels, it’s something to celebrate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from EPSRC through the Active Building Centre Programme <a href="https://abc-rp.com/">https://abc-rp.com/</a>, and Innovate UK through the Regional Energy Systems Operator project</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Day receives funding from Innovate UK and is a Research Assistant within the West Midlands Regional Energy System Operator project <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/energy/news/2020/decarbonising-coventry.aspx">https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/energy/news/2020/decarbonising-coventry.aspx</a></span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noah Godfrey is a Research Assistant within the Active Building Centre Research Programme <a href="https://abc-rp.com/">https://abc-rp.com/</a>, and a PhD Student with the Energy Informatics Group at the University of Birmingham.</span></em></p>Per capita electricity use was higher in the 1970s than today.Grant Wilson, Lecturer, Energy Informatics Group, Chemical Engineering, University of BirminghamJoseph Day, Postdoctoral Research Assistant in Energy Informatics, University of BirminghamNoah Godfrey, Energy Data Analyst - PhD in Modelling Flexibility in Future UK Energy Systems, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1476452020-10-07T13:44:21Z2020-10-07T13:44:21ZBoris Johnson promises a UK offshore wind revolution – but China holds the monopoly on vital ‘rare earth’ metals<p>It wasn’t so long ago that the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/10154424/Wind-farms-couldnt-pull-the-skin-off-a-rice-pudding-says-Boris-Johnson.html">said</a> wind turbines “couldn’t pull the skin off a rice pudding”. He now seems to have undergone something of a Damascene conversion, promising to boost the government’s target for offshore wind deployment to 40 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. Enough, he claims, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/05/boris-johnson-to-unveil-plan-to-power-all-uk-homes-with-wind-by-2030">power every home</a> in the country.</p>
<p>Offshore wind energy is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0661-2">cheaper</a> than <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-auction-offshore-wind-cheaper-than-new-gas">gas power stations</a> or <a href="https://renews.biz/61228/uk-offshore-wind-cheaper-than-new-nuclear/">nuclear power</a>, so economically this is a policy no-brainer. The Committee on Climate Change has stated that the UK’s offshore wind capacity should be <a href="https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/06/26/uk-offshore-wind-big-in-cccs-progress-report-to-parliament/">75GW by 2050</a> to achieve net-zero emissions, while others imagine <a href="https://publicinterest.org.uk/offshore/downloads/offshore_valuation_exec.pdf">even more ambitious scenarios</a>, so redoubling commitment to offshore wind is welcome. </p>
<p>The government estimates the policy will support up to <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-qa-boris-johnsons-offshore-wind-plans">60,000 jobs</a> directly and indirectly by 2030. How many of these turbines will be made in the UK is unclear, but “government sources” are alleged to have promised that <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8808135/Boris-Johnson-promises-wind-farms-power-home-Britain-ten-years.html?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=c64f19d95a-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_10_06_06_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-c64f19d95a-190637668">60% will originate in Britain</a>. An independent assessment concluded the government would need to commit almost <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/06/powering-all-uk-homes-via-offshore-wind-by-2030-would-cost-50bn">£50 billion</a> (USD$64.5 billion) to pull this off – substantially more than the £160 million currently pledged to upgrade the UK’s ports and factories.</p>
<p>But there’s another, perhaps bigger problem, that few seem to have noticed. The largest offshore wind turbine, the <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/siemens-gamesa-takes-worlds-largest-turbine-title">Siemens Gamesa 14MW</a> has <a href="https://www.siemensgamesa.com/en-int/products-and-services/offshore/wind-turbine-sg-14-222-dd">blades 108 metres long</a>. Repairing gearboxes high up and in the middle of the sea is tricky, so these modern turbines are designed with incredibly powerful permanent magnets that can produce electricity <a href="https://www.engineering.com/AdvancedManufacturing/ArticleID/20149/The-Future-of-Wind-Turbines-Comparing-Direct-Drive-and-Gearbox.aspx#:%7E:text=A%20direct%2Ddrive%20wind%20turbine's,connected%20directly%20to%20the%20generator.&text=PMGs%20are%20usually%20used%20in,used%20in%20large%20MW%20applications.">without a gearbox</a>.</p>
<p>These tremendous turbines require enormous quantities of magnetic material – so called “rare-earth magnets”. Even a wind turbine rated at 5MW requires around three tonnes of magnets, of which one tonne is <a href="https://www.peakresources.com.au/news/wind-industry-prepares-for-bottlenecks-and-price-hikes-in-rare-earth-metals/">rare earth metal</a>, such as neodymium and dysprosium. </p>
<p>The UK has little to no native deposits of these metals, so where will this material come from?</p>
<h2>‘The ace in China’s hand’</h2>
<p>Boris Johnson <a href="https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/offshore-wind-power-every-home">declared</a> “as Saudi Arabia is to oil, the UK is to wind”. This may be true, but exploiting this advantage will require turbine generators stocked with rare earth metals. “Rare” is a bit of a misnomer though. The material isn’t all that scarce and the world isn’t at risk of running out. It does occur in relatively low concentrations where it is found though. This makes it challenging to refine enough of it and China presently controls most of the world’s supply chain.</p>
<p>In an echo of Johnson’s verbal flourish, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping once <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3cd18372-85e0-11e9-a028-86cea8523dc2">remarked</a> on a tour of a rare earth production facility in 1987 that “the Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.” More recently, Chinese state media referred to rare earth metals as “<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/23/18637071/rare-earth-china-production-america-demand-trade-war-tariffs">the ace in China’s hand</a>”. It’s clear China’s leaders haven’t forgotten their <a href="https://youtu.be/7LZXOi1Zjf4?t=194">significant advantages</a> in the global race to clean energy.</p>
<p>While the EU recently published its <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_1542">strategy</a> for obtaining these critical materials, Brexit means that the UK must consider its own position independently. So what might that look like?</p>
<h2>What’s the solution?</h2>
<p>The price and supply of rare earth metals can be volatile, so developing a broader base for their supply is important. Exploring <a href="https://www.mining.com/canadas-mkango-start-mining-rare-earths-malawi-2020/">alternative sources</a> of metals such as neodymium is one option, but the processes for mining these rare earth materials can cause a lot of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20150402-the-worst-place-on-earth">pollution</a>.</p>
<p>The UK might be overlooking an indigenous supply of rare earth magnetic material in many of the waste electronics it discards. Motors, pumps and electronic goods such as speakers and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52701851">hard disk drives</a> all contain them. All that is needed to exploit this is a capable <a href="https://hypromag.com/">recycling industry</a>, and that’s something the University of Birmingham is <a href="https://www.susmagpro.eu/">looking</a> <a href="https://www.circularonline.co.uk/news/innovate-uk-bolsters-2-6m-recycling-project-for-electric-car-motors/">into</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pile of discarded computer hard drives." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362174/original/file-20201007-18-kqr0bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362174/original/file-20201007-18-kqr0bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362174/original/file-20201007-18-kqr0bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362174/original/file-20201007-18-kqr0bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362174/original/file-20201007-18-kqr0bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362174/original/file-20201007-18-kqr0bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362174/original/file-20201007-18-kqr0bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Discarded hard drives could offer a sustainable source of material for wind turbine magnets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/computer-hard-drives-being-recycled-have-341944013">Doug McLean/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Diversifying the raw material supply and recycling used magnets are not mutually exclusive. There could be a lot of overlap between the technologies and processes used for treating mined and recycled material. The UK should develop a coordinated approach to both, and there are <a href="https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pn-0609/">promising signs</a> the government is considering the <a href="https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pn-0609/">challenges involved</a>.</p>
<p>The UK’s demand for rare earth metals will only increase, so robust policy for sourcing them and ensuring a cost-effective supply to UK industry will be essential.</p>
<p>In the future, we’ll also need to think about how to recycle the material in these turbines at the end of their <a href="https://www.twi-global.com/technical-knowledge/faqs/how-long-do-wind-turbines-last#:%7E:text=A%20good%20quality%2C%20modern%20wind,increase%20as%20the%20structure%20ages.">20 to 25-year</a> lifetime. As global demand for metals such as neodymium grows, this offshore reserve of critical materials may prove to be a shrewd investment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147645/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The University of Birmingham is collaborating with Sir John Beddington on a policy commission entitled 'Securing Technology Critical Metals for Britain' on which Gavin is a Commissioner.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allan Walton is a director of Hypromag Ltd and part of the EU SUSMAGPRO project and the UK Innovate project - RARE, all of which aim to recycle rare earth permanent magnetic materials.</span></em></p>China has a monopoly on rare earth metals, so where will the materials for the UK’s wind revolution come from?Gavin D. J. Harper, Research Fellow, Birmingham Centre for Strategic Elements & Critical Materials, University of BirminghamAllan Walton, Professor of Critical and Magnetic Materials, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1413452020-06-29T13:34:19Z2020-06-29T13:34:19ZRenewable energy supply and demand during lockdown – and the best time to bake bread<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344540/original/file-20200629-155303-8ylcta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=596%2C0%2C4876%2C3793&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/homemade-bread-baking-electric-oven-1591890013">Blaskor/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Britain generated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/25/renewable-energy-breaks-uk-record-in-first-quarter-of-2020">nearly half of its electricity</a> from renewable sources in the first three months of 2020. And then the pandemic happened, and all of a sudden, energy demand dropped dramatically as offices, shops and restaurants closed and people stayed home. </p>
<p>Energy demand patterns are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8rvyT8yZNU&feature=youtu.be">largely driven by our activities</a>. Peaks in demand exist simply because, at certain times of day, there are a lot of people doing a lot of things that all require electricity.</p>
<p>Not all days are the same, hard though that may have been to believe during the monotony of lockdown. During “normal” times, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Peak-Energy-Demand-and-Demand-Side-Response-1st-Edition/Torriti/p/book/9781138064942">peaks are higher</a> on weekdays than weekends because there is more activity, with factories and shops open longer. During the lockdown, energy demand on weekdays was so much lower that it <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-analysed-electricity-demand-and-found-coronavirus-has-turned-weekdays-into-weekends-134606">looked more like it usually does on weekends</a>. </p>
<p>We wanted to know how that might have affected the amount of Britain’s electricity demand that was met by renewable energy, so we took a closer look at days during lockdown and compared them with the same period in 2019.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343593/original/file-20200623-188926-1evk1gv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">T. Yunusov; Data: National Grid ESO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343594/original/file-20200623-188911-sqlcuj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">T. Yunusov; Data: National Grid ESO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lower demand, cleaner power</h2>
<p>Weekday evening peaks (between 4pm and 8pm) occur because people tend to return home around the same time and switch lights on, prepare dinner and watch TV. But these evening peaks often don’t align with the times when energy from renewables – particular solar, but also wind and hydroelectric – is abundant. To meet demand at that time of day, extra power generation is needed, which is mainly supplied from fossil fuels. Using this extra generation to match peak demand results in higher carbon emissions and higher costs, which are reflected in consumer bills.</p>
<p>But for weekdays during lockdown, evening peaks were much lower. And the overall decrease in demand in turn reduced the need for this extra generation, meaning that the energy we consumed was cleaner, compared with pre-lockdown peaks. The larger the share of renewable energy in the supply mix, the lower the overall carbon intensity (how much CO₂ is emitted to generate a particular amount of energy) of power generation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343592/original/file-20200623-188931-14eko8h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy demand and the carbon intensity of power generation at peak times during lockdown, the two months leading up to lockdown and the same period in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">T. Yunusov; Data: National Grid ESO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Thanks to lower demand during lockdown, <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/great-britains-electricity-explained">Britain’s national grid</a> was <a href="https://twitter.com/UK_Coal/status/1273008882785419264">coal-free for almost 68 days</a> – the longest time since 1882, when the <a href="https://blogs.wwf.org.uk/blog/climate-energy/time-dethrone-king-coal/">world’s first coal-fired power station opened</a> on Holborn Viaduct in central London.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1273008882785419264"}"></div></p>
<p>This is great news, of course, but while evening peaks were lower than during normal times, they were still present. In an ideal scenario where CO₂ emissions are close to zero, demand wouldn’t overload the grid at certain times of day, prompting back-up generation by fossil fuels to cover the shortfall. Instead, energy demand would be flexible and adapt in real time to the levels of clean power available. But how is it possible to match demand to renewable energy supply?</p>
<h2>The best time to bake</h2>
<p>The first (and perhaps the simplest) way to make demand more flexible is through price incentives. </p>
<p>Typically, our bills are based on flat tariffs, meaning we’re charged a price that averages out our use when the prices of electricity are higher at peak times and when they’re lower during off-peak periods.</p>
<p>But some suppliers offer flexible tariffs based on the actual cost of generating electricity at different times of day. And in some cases, this means that customers are reimbursed <a href="https://octopus.energy/blog/social-distancing-renewable-energy-negative-pricing/">when prices turn negative</a>, which usually happens when demand is low and generation by renewables is high.</p>
<p>Another way to increase the flexibility of energy demand is through a voluntary shift by consumers. If more of us can time our activities to moments in the day when electricity generation by renewables is highest, we can contribute to reducing emissions from the energy sector. </p>
<p>The shortage of flour in supermarkets during lockdown was almost certainly due to an increase in the number of people baking. What if they could choose the best time of their day to bake, based on when renewable energy generation was at its daily peak – and the carbon intensity of the grid is at its corresponding nadir? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=160&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=160&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=160&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=201&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=201&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344513/original/file-20200629-155308-4dr75t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=201&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Good periods to bake in May 2020 (green area) versus bad periods to bake (red area), according to electricity demand (yellow line) and the percentage of renewable generation (green line).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J. Ramirez-Mendiola</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://shouldibake.com/">One website</a> is trying to help people do just that, offering suggestions each day for the best times to bake. </p>
<p>Typically, the best times for green baking are when more than one-third of the electricity we use is being generated by renewables, which normally occurs around the middle of the day when there is plenty of sunshine and wind. But on very sunny or windy days, these greener periods in Britain’s electricity generation can extend much longer, making it even easier to be environmentally friendly, while still enjoying the conveniences that electricity offers, such as baking tasty bread, preparing a meal in a slow cooker or charging an electric car.</p>
<p>Every little helps, and being mindful of when green energy generation is at its daily peak could lead to bigger reductions in carbon emission in a shorter time than governments and utilities are currently working towards. So long as we don’t run out of flour, that is.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacopo Torriti receives funding from UKRI (grant numbers EP/R000735/1, EP/R035288/1 and EP/P000630/1). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jose Luis Ramirez-Mendiola has received funding from UKRI. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timur Yunusov receives funding from EPSRC (grant number EP/R000735/1)</span></em></p>Consumers can play their part in reducing carbon emissions by choosing to shift their energy use to when renewable generation is at its daily peak.Jacopo Torriti, Professor of Energy Economics and Policy, University of ReadingJose Luis Ramirez-Mendiola, Postdoctoral Research Fellow on Flexibility in Energy Demand, University of ReadingTimur Yunusov, Postdoctoral Researcher on Flexibility in Energy Demand, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1346062020-03-31T14:32:08Z2020-03-31T14:32:08ZWe analysed electricity demand and found coronavirus has turned weekdays into weekends<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322936/original/file-20200325-168876-1lctrcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">dcurzon / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The measures to control the spread of COVID-19 are unparalleled, and this is already having an effect on Britain’s energy system. There have been massive short-term changes in the past: for instance the temporary imposition of a three-day week in the 1970s may have had an even greater overall effect, but this was due to industrial action in the coal sector affecting the supply of energy. This time, the disruption is on the demand side – the energy is still available, but the demand for it has reduced.</p>
<p>We are a group of academics monitoring the situation to understand how national energy demand is affected by changes in day-to-day routines. We should point out that the energy system is very resilient, and there are <a href="https://news.energynetworks.org/coronavirus/keeping-energy-flowing">well developed contingency plans</a> to keep the energy flowing. But the response to coronavirus is affecting things in various other ways:</p>
<h2>1. Demand for petrol, diesel and aviation fuel is plummeting</h2>
<p>We already know that there has been an enormous reduction in flights, <a href="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/28C5/production/_111473401_capture.png">public transport and road traffic</a>, and April is expected to record the lowest monthly liquid fuels demand since data started in 1998. A greater than 40% reduction is possible if Britain restricts the movement of people more than it currently has, an incredible short-term drop in demand. However, since the government publishes <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/oil-and-oil-products-section-3-energy-trends">liquid fuels data</a> two months in arrears, the full extent of the reduction in demand will not become clear until the summer.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322960/original/file-20200325-168876-1iwkeum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Normal monthly liquid fuels demand to Nov 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Grant Wilson using data from Elexon, National Grid and BEIS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Weekdays look like weekends</h2>
<p>With most shops, factories and offices closed or under severe restrictions, we expect the electrical demand of a normal working day to continue to be closer to that of a weekend or bank holiday. Typically there is a 10-20% drop between a weekday and a weekend day, depending on the time of year. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324271/original/file-20200331-65537-5jsvg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first lockdown week (blue) was close to a typical weekend.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">N. Godfrey - EDAG; Data: Elexon & National Grid</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chart above shows that prime minister Boris Johnson’s lockdown announcement (on Monday 23 March) caused an immediate 5-10% reduction in electrical demand. </p>
<p>The last time demand was this low for the month of March was back in 1975, a further indication of how the coronavirus measures are changing people’s routines, and the energy they use to underpin these. April is likely to be lower still, taking Britain’s electrical demand back to the 1960s, to a period before daily data became available.</p>
<p>With many people working from home and schools shut, people are less governed by routines and strict adherence to times for commuting or the school run. This has caused the typical morning electricity “peak” to flatten out, as electrical showers, kettles, lights and heating are spread over a slightly longer period. Something similar happens on Sunday mornings, and in particular on Christmas day and New Year’s day.</p>
<p>We are also keen to observe how much increased digital traffic will increase the load on the electrical system. As most face-to-face meetings have now effectively stopped, various conversations, meetings and indeed lessons are now <a href="https://data-economy.com/microsoft-sees-12-million-new-users-on-teams-as-remote-workers-increase-during-covid-19-pandemic/">taking place online or over the phone</a>. Domestic WiFi use is skyrocketing as people stay in and <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/bt-unlimited-broadband-coronavirus-uk-a4393651.html">ISPs remove limits on broadband data</a>, causing an unprecedented <a href="https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/03/12/remote_work_struggles/">strain on data centres</a> across the world.</p>
<h2>3. Declining carbon emissions</h2>
<p>An overall drop in energy demand should mean a proportionate decrease in emissions, particularly as people use a lot less petrol, diesel and aviation fuel. The reduction in plane and car travel is expected to significantly lower of carbon emissions in April, even when considering the increase in online delivery services for food and other necessities.</p>
<p>Less electrical demand also means coal and some gas power plants can be turned down or switched off, and a greater proportion of demand can be met with low-carbon generation. Therefore we expect a decrease in <a href="https://carbonintensity.org.uk">grid carbon intensity</a> (a measure of how much carbon goes into producing a unit of energy). However, this is dependent on the weather – if there’s no wind or sun, fossil fuel generation is needed to meet demand.</p>
<p>It is clear that measures to control the spread of the coronavirus are already having significant effects on Britian’s energy systems. But we don’t yet know how long these measures will last, and how quickly demand will bounce back to pre-covid-19 levels. It may even be that overall energy demand will rebound back even further to take advantage of cheaper fossil fuels, thus bucking the trend of extraordinary <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-has-shifted-30-of-its-electricity-away-from-fossil-fuels-in-just-nine-years-108969">reductions in energy use and carbon intensity</a> over the past decade.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council as part of the Active Building Centre project <a href="https://www.activebuildingcentre.com">https://www.activebuildingcentre.com</a>, and from Innovate UK through the West Midlands Regional Energy System Operator (RESO) – Coventry project</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noah Godfrey is a Research Assistant within the Active Building Centre project <a href="https://www.activebuildingcentre.com">https://www.activebuildingcentre.com</a>, and a PhD Student with the Energy Data Analytics Group at the University of Birmingham.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Shivangi Sharma receives funding from the European Union supported ERDF funded project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Bassett receives funding from the Energy and Physical Sciences Research Council and Innovate UK as part of the Active Building Centre project.</span></em></p>Three ways coronavirus is already impacting Britain’s energy systems.Grant Wilson, Lecturer, Energy Data Analytics Group, Chemical Engineering, University of BirminghamNoah Godfrey, Energy Data Analyst - PhD in Modelling Flexibility in Future UK Energy Systems, University of BirminghamShivangi Sharma, ERDF Knowledge Exchange Fellow, University of BirminghamTom Bassett, Senior Engineer, Active Building Centre, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1293462020-01-06T14:50:21Z2020-01-06T14:50:21ZBritain’s electricity since 2010: wind surges to second place, coal collapses and fossil fuel use nearly halves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308642/original/file-20200106-123377-fzmmhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Few people would have predicted in 2010 that by the end of the decade, electricity generation from renewables would outpace nuclear.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/galloper-offshore-wind-farm-north-sea-1151261225">J Davidson/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2010, Great Britain generated 75% of its electricity from coal and natural gas. But by the end of the decade*, these fossil fuels accounted for just 40%, with coal generation collapsing from the decade’s peak of 41% in 2012 to under 2% in 2019.</p>
<p>The near disappearance of coal power – the second most prevalent source in 2010 – underpinned a remarkable transformation of Britain’s electricity generation over the last decade, meaning Britain now has the cleanest electrical supply it has ever had. Second place now belongs to wind power, which supplied almost 21% of the country’s electrical demand in 2019, up from 3% in 2010. As at the start of the decade, natural gas provided the largest share of Britain’s electricity in 2019 at 38%, compared with 47% in 2010. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308776/original/file-20200107-123377-ef7gh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chart: Dr Grant Wilson, University of Birmingham Source: Elexon and National Grid</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-has-shifted-30-of-its-electricity-away-from-fossil-fuels-in-just-nine-years-108969">As we predicted</a> last January, 2019 saw the annual total for coal generation drop below solar and into seventh place for the first time. Britain’s renewables also generated more electricity than coal and natural gas combined over a month for the first ever time in August.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-has-shifted-30-of-its-electricity-away-from-fossil-fuels-in-just-nine-years-108969">Britain has shifted 30% of its electricity away from fossil fuels in just nine years</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Besides the reduction in carbon emissions, there was another remarkable shift in Britain’s electrical system during the 2010s. The amount of electricity consumed fell by nearly 15% between 2010 and 2019, with the economy using 50 terawatt hours (TWh) less electricity in 2019 than it did in 2010. That’s enough electricity to power half of Britain’s cars and taxis, <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-has-shifted-30-of-its-electricity-away-from-fossil-fuels-in-just-nine-years-108969">if they were all electric vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>Some of this reduction can be attributed to greater energy efficiency, such as more LED lighting, and the fact that more goods were imported, rather than manufactured within Britain. <a href="https://fullfact.org/economy/employment-since-2010-wages/">With wages stagnant since 2010</a>, it’s likely that lower economic demand also contributed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308777/original/file-20200107-123381-1emcf15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chart: Dr Grant Wilson, University of Birmingham Source: Elexon and National Grid</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The rise of renewable generation and the fall in electrical demand allowed coal power to be transitioned off the system. Britain’s electrical grid was coal-free for over 3,700 hours in 2019, something that would have been unthinkable ten years ago.</p>
<h2>Winds of change</h2>
<p>Wind energy set a new record of 26.5% for December 2019’s generation in the UK. Including solar, hydroelectric and biomass, renewables provided nearly 37% of the month’s electricity overall, with wind energy reaching a peak of nearly 17 gigawatts (GW) during the afternoon of December 10. </p>
<p>Since August 2018, renewables have produced more electricity than nuclear power for 17 months straight. Nuclear fell to less than a fifth of electricity generation in 2019, its lowest level since 2008 due to extended maintenance periods at six nuclear power stations. This helped the annual output of wind energy to surpass nuclear for the first time in 2019.</p>
<p>But the 2020s will prove an even greater challenge for decarbonisation, not least as Britain’s economy is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels for transport, heating and hot water. <a href="https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/reports/report-2019-q2/detail/how-clean-is-my-electric-car">Sales of electric vehicles in Britain are accelerating</a>, with a quarter of a million now on Britain’s roads – but how to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50873047">decarbonise heating</a> is still up for debate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308637/original/file-20200106-123411-e2ydb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308637/original/file-20200106-123411-e2ydb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308637/original/file-20200106-123411-e2ydb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308637/original/file-20200106-123411-e2ydb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308637/original/file-20200106-123411-e2ydb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308637/original/file-20200106-123411-e2ydb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308637/original/file-20200106-123411-e2ydb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eggborough coal power station, which was decommissioned in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/eggborough-north-yorkshire-england-britain-november-1555236059">Phil Silverman/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Encouragingly, due to cleaner electricity, a major milestone for electric heating is likely to have been reached in 2019. Using electricity from the grid to heat buildings or hot water is less carbon intensive than burning natural gas to get one kilowatt hour (kWh) of heat from a modern gas boiler. This means that even a simple electric heater releases on average less carbon than burning natural gas.</p>
<p>But since natural gas demand varies greatly over a <a href="http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/publications/local-gas-demand-vs-electricity-supply.html">day and between seasons compared to the demand for electricity</a>, a wholesale shift from natural gas to electricity is a significant challenge. Using low-carbon gases such as hydrogen is one option to decarbonise Britain’s heat supply, so too are electric heat pumps. Without a sustained focus on shifting heat and the transport sector from fossil fuels, Britain will fail to become a net-zero carbon economy by 2050.</p>
<h2>What lies ahead in the 2020s?</h2>
<p>Scaling up renewable energy generation has catapulted Britain through a decade of electrical system change, but to capitalise on this momentum in the 2020s, low-carbon energy must be complemented with low-carbon flexibility. That must mean the growth of industries focused on energy storage, demand reduction and management, and local control systems, ensuring the system can continue to meet demand at all times.</p>
<p>After a promising decade of decarbonisation - despite policy setbacks like <a href="http://eng.janrosenow.com/uploads/4/7/1/2/4712328/eers_paper.pdf">the green deal</a> – the race is on to be the first G7 country to attain a net-zero carbon economy. Showing that it is possible to fully decarbonise a large economy while remaining internationally competitive would send an important message to the world.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-six-positive-news-stories-from-2019-129100">Climate change: six positive news stories from 2019</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The next decade will see even more renewable energy deployed, such as the Hornsea Project One – a 1.2 GW offshore wind farm, due to be completed in 2020. But what else do the 2020s hold? Here are our energy predictions for the next ten years:</p>
<ol>
<li>Britain will install an additional 30 GW of marine energy generation, including offshore wind, wave, tidal flow and tidal range.</li>
<li>Over 10,000 “<a href="https://www.activebuildingcentre.com">active buildings</a>” will be built. These are highly energy efficient buildings integrating renewable energy technologies for heat, power, and transport with different types of heat and electrical storage.</li>
<li>Over 80% of new cars sold will be battery electric vehicles.</li>
</ol>
<p>We would very much welcome your predictions for 2030 in the comments below, as a snapshot of current thinking at the beginning of 2020. It will be great to look back at these in the future.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>*The electrical generation data is from <a href="http://www.elexonportal.co.uk/">Elexon</a> and <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/balancing-data/data-explorer">National Grid</a>. Data from other analyses (such as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-trends">BEIS</a> or <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes">DUKES</a>) will differ due to methodologies and additional data, particularly by including combined heat and power, and other on-site generation which is not monitored by Elexon and National Grid.
Renewables in this analysis = wind + solar + hydro + biomass.</em></p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1129346">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council as part of the Active Building Centre project <a href="https://www.activebuildingcentre.com">https://www.activebuildingcentre.com</a></span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Staffell works with Drax Group to produce the Electric Insights website, and received funding from EPSRC to work in this area. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noah Godfrey is a researcher within the Active Building Centre project <a href="https://www.activebuildingcentre.com">https://www.activebuildingcentre.com</a></span></em></p>Britain greets a new decade with substantially cleaner electricity, but challenges lie ahead to decarbonise its transport and heating.Grant Wilson, Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of Birmingham., University of BirminghamIain Staffell, Lecturer in Sustainable Energy, Imperial College LondonNoah Godfrey, PhD in Chemical Engineering - Modelling Flexibility in Future UK Energy Systems, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1272582019-11-26T10:33:29Z2019-11-26T10:33:29ZLabour plan to renationalise the UK energy networks is a bad idea – business economist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302914/original/file-20191121-502-16bovzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electricity-lines-carrying-power-across-countryside-329685146">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Along with rail, mail, water and broadband, the UK Labour Party has announced plans <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf">to bring energy back into public ownership</a> in its election manifesto. Labour has big plans to reduce the UK’s carbon emissions by also investing in more renewable energy and it believes public ownership is the best way to do this. </p>
<p>But the evidence suggests the opposite. If we look at the plans in detail and the realities of the energy sector, re-nationalising the UK’s energy networks is a bad idea.</p>
<p>The details in the manifesto are relatively scant. But they nod to the more detailed plans that the party published in May with the document <a href="https://www.labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Bringing-Energy-Home-2019.pdf">Bringing Energy Home</a> and the vote at the 2019 Labour Party conference to nationalise the big six energy suppliers. </p>
<h2>What is proposed?</h2>
<p>The party proposes nationalising the wires that transmit electricity and pipes that feed the country’s gas supplies. Altogether there are ten firms in the UK, including the National Grid, UK Power Networks and Cadent, which would return to public control. Six companies distribute electricity, three distribute gas and one transmits both electricity and gas. As well as nationalising these, Labour proposes significantly reorganising them. </p>
<p>It says it will create new regional energy agencies – combining gas and electricity – to manage distribution to houses and businesses. New municipal energy agencies and local energy community firms would be able to take control of local networks and enter energy supply and generation. There would be a National Energy Agency to maintain the grid and infrastructure, acting as an independent public body.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationalising-britains-energy-networks-could-be-one-way-to-end-consumer-rip-off-heres-why-126958">Nationalising Britain’s energy networks could be one way to end consumer rip-off – here’s why</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This would be a substantial reorganisation. Two large FTSE 100 companies – SSE and National Grid – would lose significant amounts of their existing assets and be vulnerable to takeover. UK grids were 40% or more of both <a href="https://sse.com/investors/reportsandresults/media/0zva4vg0/sse-31464-annual-report-2019-web.pdf">SSE</a> and <a href="https://investors.nationalgrid.com/news-and-reports/reports/2018-19/plc">National Grid</a> operating profit in 2018. </p>
<p>The impact on existing energy investment would also be significant, affecting some major global investors in the UK. This includes the Hong Kong-based CK Group, which <a href="https://www.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/internet/en/about-us/UKPN%20AR%202018-19.pdf">owns the largest electricity distribution company in the UK</a>. </p>
<p>Gas distribution would be completely reorganised within electricity distribution areas as regional energy agencies. There would be greater workforce and community involvement. And all the current senior executives and directors would have to reapply for their jobs, be subject to salary capping and new diversity targets – boards comprising at least 50% women – for their successor teams.</p>
<h2>What is the intention?</h2>
<p>The proposals aim to provide better value, accelerate and coordinate investment, provide democratic control and ensure that decentralisation occurs fairly.</p>
<p>A key issue is whether such a large reorganisation during a time of rapid decarbonisation on the path to net zero emissions is sensible. The answer to this must surely be no. </p>
<p>The current company boundaries have come about as a result of a long process of consolidation. They encapsulate existing economies of scale and scope, which differ in electricity and gas. </p>
<p>Forcing the two sectors to both fragment and then be reconfigured would almost certainly involve both significant reorganisation costs (independent of the costs of repurchasing the assets from their existing owners) and higher ongoing costs from the increased layers of bureaucracy that are being created. This is in addition to the exodus of talent and experience that will inevitably result from the forced removal of existing executives.</p>
<p>This reveals a central problem with the nationalisation proposals, which is that they are not primarily about energy policy. This is actually a multi-objective policy which has control of strategic assets and distribution at its heart rather than the traditional energy focus of low cost, high reliability and limited environmental impact. </p>
<p>The operations will not be run on a commercial basis. Local authorities will be able to claim the assets (presumably without paying for them) from the central government and workers will be given increased say in the running of the company. A Labour government also intends to purchase the assets at a substantial discount to the current price.</p>
<h2>A better way</h2>
<p>Evidence <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-6451.00049">from</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2001.tb00036.x">the UK</a> and around <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.39.2.321">the world</a> suggests private ownership results in more efficient companies and more investment in the long run. Among EU countries, more competitive energy markets are associated with <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519300187">higher amounts of renewables</a>. Electricity and gas workers in the UK work fewer hours and are already paid significantly more than the average for the whole economy. </p>
<p>History is not on the side of energy nationalisation (from 1948 to 1990), with historians agreeing that the nationalised energy industry had a sorry record of high operational costs <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Nationalised-Industries-Policies-Performance-since/dp/0855202424">and misdirected investment</a>. Energy firms owned by local governments are primarily vehicles for social capital building rather than serious instruments for achieving high level national and international energy policy objectives. </p>
<p>There are better ways to improve the UK’s energy supplies. Tighter regulation of existing companies by regulator Ofgem would deliver the same benefits with more certainty and no disruption costs. </p>
<p>Less radical intervention, such as the creation of a not-for-profit national energy system operator, could give greater government influence over a low carbon agenda. This would come at a fraction of the cost of completely nationalising the energy network. Meanwhile, a better approach to exploring the coordination benefits of operating electricity and gas networks in one company would be with one regional experiment.</p>
<p>Overall, there is little evidence that what is proposed would help with the UK’s energy and climate goals. They seem more like a recipe for distraction and delay. A truly radical plan to achieve the UK’s net zero target is not helped by an ideologically motivated – rather than evidence based – ownership change. </p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerC">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Pollitt is an Assistant Director of the Energy Policy Research Group, whose sponsors include National Grid, UKPN and Ofgem. Much of his work on the impact of privatisation has been supported by the ESRC.</span></em></p>Evidence from the UK and around the world suggests private ownership results in more efficient companies, more investment and more renewable energy.Michael Pollitt, Professor of Business Economics, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1269582019-11-19T17:28:07Z2019-11-19T17:28:07ZNationalising Britain’s energy networks could be one way to end consumer rip-off – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302429/original/file-20191119-111650-hy6s9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C50%2C4149%2C2716&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electricity-pylon-uk-standard-overhead-power-185467274?src=965c9a0d-db8c-41fb-b84f-a072f526313a-1-0">Lukasz Pajor/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For many people, winter means trying to keep the cold out and the heat in. But for the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/fuel-poverty-uk-figures-poor-bills-cost-households-a8417426.html">one in ten households</a> in the UK living in fuel poverty, who are unable to afford to properly heat their homes, it can mean the difference between life and death.</p>
<p>Indeed, research by National Energy Action and climate-change charity E3G found that there were <a href="https://www.e3g.org/news/media-room/17000-people-in-the-uk-died-last-winter-due-to-cold-housing">17,000 deaths in the UK</a> due to cold housing conditions last winter. The charity has called for urgent action to put an end to this “entirely preventable” tragedy.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www4.shu.ac.uk/research/cresr/sites/shu.ac.uk/files/reaching-hardest-reach-energy-advice-final.pdf">recent report</a>, conducted with Citizens’ Advice, also shows that energy companies are failing to meet their statutory obligations to protect vulnerable customers – and that this is harming people’s mental and physical health. </p>
<p>Our research found that the current system was leaving many of the people we spoke to out of pocket by hundreds and in some cases thousands of pounds – these are findings that have been <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2019/09/vulnerable_consumers_in_the_energy_market_2019_final.pdf">echoed elsewhere</a>. It seems then that the most <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/aug/07/safeguard-energy-tariffs-increase-following-rise-in-energy-costs">vulnerable people bear the brunt</a> of an <a href="http://www.moneyadvicetrust.org/creditors/creditsector/Documents/Energy%20UK%20report.pdf">ineffective energy system</a> that does not prioritise the consumer.</p>
<h2>Extortionate bills</h2>
<p>As part of our research, we interviewed 26 adults in Bristol and Sheffield and the people we spoke to reported a range of economic and social difficulties, mental and physical health problems and other vulnerabilities. Many were in severe fuel poverty and living in cold and sometimes dangerous conditions. </p>
<p>An elderly woman we spoke to who lived alone and was in the early stages of dementia, realised that she was several hundreds of pounds in credit on her energy account. She contacted her energy supplier but felt they were reluctant to reimburse her. She told us how she was particularly unhappy about having to explain her situation from the beginning every time she made contact, which she found exhausting. </p>
<p>As a result of their poor experiences at the hands of energy suppliers, more than one interviewee was paying off energy debt from previous tenants. One man described how he had now decided he would be better off paying off a £2,111 debt than attempting to deal with his energy company again. </p>
<h2>An essential service</h2>
<p>Energy is legally recognised as an essential service, and the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/">government regulator Ofgem</a> is meant to ensure suppliers maintain equitable access to their service. Legally, these conditions should be met for Ofgem to grant suppliers a licence. But our research highlights how these conditions are far from being met. Indeed, most people who approached their energy supplier for help and support reported poor and inconsistent treatment that left their problem unresolved.</p>
<p>Ofgem has had a “<a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/about-us/how-we-work/working-consumers/protecting-and-empowering-consumers-vulnerable-situations/consumer-vulnerability-strategy">vulnerability strategy</a>” in place since 2013 to address exactly these issues. But the strategy has failed to deliver on its aims –- and the energy industry knows this. Last year, the trade association for gas and electricity suppliers, Energy UK, set up a <a href="https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/our-work/commission-for-customers-in-vulnerable-circumstances.html">Commission for Customers in Vulnerable Circumstances</a> that highlighted how Ofgem and energy suppliers were failing vulnerable consumers.</p>
<p>What is needed across the board is affordable energy and decent customer service. The people in our research were clear about what they wanted from their energy provider – and emphasised that when it comes to customer service, any opportunity for face-to-face engagement would be welcomed above phone or internet support. </p>
<h2>Nationalise the system</h2>
<p>There are also system-wide changes that could help too. As the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-election-2019-hundreds-of-thousands-of-people-could-be-in-the-wrong-place-when-its-time-to-vote-126573">election campaign</a> gathers pace, <a href="https://labour.org.uk/press/warm-homes-for-all-labours-plan-to-reduce-energy-bills-create-jobs-and-tackle-the-climate-emergency/">Labour has added detail</a> to its plan to <a href="https://theconversation.com/corbyn-public-ownership-push-reflects-what-is-happening-all-round-the-world-47652">nationalise Britain’s energy network</a>. </p>
<p>The plan would see the creation of a National Energy Agency to own and maintain transmission infrastructure. Solar panels would also be a big part of the move to green energy and unused electricity would be used by the National Grid, which would be nationalised. The party says this move is critical to ending fuel poverty and fighting climate change – by diverting profits to <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-smart-power-could-help-the-uk-reach-100-renewable-energy-59344">green infrastructure</a> and lower energy prices. </p>
<p>Labour argues that a quicker shift towards wholesale <a href="https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-first-zero-emission-research-station-shows-that-sustainable-living-is-possible-anywhere-113977">renewable energy</a> provision will in itself reduce energy prices and alleviate fuel poverty. This is an idea supported by evidence from the <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Jan/Renewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017">International Renewable Energy Agency</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view">Opinion polls</a> show that most people support taking the energy sector back into public hands. In fact, <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view">state ownership is still the preferred option</a> for most people in the UK across nearly all of the industries. Clearly then there is appetite for such change. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302427/original/file-20191119-111630-f5mnrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302427/original/file-20191119-111630-f5mnrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302427/original/file-20191119-111630-f5mnrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302427/original/file-20191119-111630-f5mnrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302427/original/file-20191119-111630-f5mnrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302427/original/file-20191119-111630-f5mnrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302427/original/file-20191119-111630-f5mnrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The nationalisation of water, energy grids and the Royal Mail would save UK households £7.8bn a year and pay for itself within seven years, according to Greenwich University’s Public Service International Research Unit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wind-turbine-on-field-aerial-photo-200445020?src=17321ad1-f9df-4408-8ebf-f9c1e4919909-1-24">ER_09/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The other main parties are yet to release detailed proposals on the future of the UK’s energy system. But these will be key issues for this election given <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/63/63.pdf">past failures</a> to alleviate fuel poverty, fears over climate breakdown and future energy security after Brexit. </p>
<p>Labour’s proposals appear to be radical enough to tackle the entrenched <a href="http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/fuel_poverty_action_plan.pdf">fuel poverty</a> that has been described by the charity <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2018-12-11/debates/CC150841-0711-48C1-94EC-1352EA0D3C68/FuelPoverty">National Energy Action</a> as “preventable and shameful”. But, of course, nationalisation is a complex project spanning more than one political term. Meaning that it will not deliver quick results.</p>
<p>But as our research highlights, customers themselves are clear about what they want – current suppliers and a potential future nationalised service now just need to properly listen. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300094/original/file-20191104-88372-xpdf2e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerA">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aimee Ambrose does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The most vulnerable people bear the brunt of an ineffective energy system that prioritises profit over the consumer.Aimee Ambrose, Reader in Energy Policy, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1149492019-04-09T10:54:06Z2019-04-09T10:54:06ZDespite good progress, 100% low-carbon energy is still a long way off for the UK<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268147/original/file-20190408-2927-1ge8snd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Just one small part of the UK's energy future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wind-energie-90778001?src=AyWBsskeTqK7hHrz9qZ5hw-1-8">majeczka/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the past ten years the UK’s electricity mix has changed dramatically. Coal’s contribution has dropped from 40% to 6%. Wind, solar power and hydroelectric plants now generate more electricity than nuclear power stations, thanks to rapid growth. Demand for electricity has also fallen, reducing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. Thanks to these three factors, the carbon intensity of Britain’s electricity has almost halved, from more than 500g of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour in 2006 to less than 270g in 2018.</p>
<p>Progress has been so quick that a fully low-carbon power sector in Britain has transformed from a faint pipedream into a <a href="https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/27/interview-scottishpower-ceo-offshore-wind-energy-uk/">real possibility</a>, according to the CEO of one of the UK’s “big six” energy companies. Indeed, the National Grid <a href="https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/national-grid-set-for-zero-carbon-power-system-operation-by-2025">now expects</a> to be able to operate a zero-carbon electricity system by 2025.</p>
<p>Already approaching that milestone on windy, sunny days, the country’s first hours of 100% low-carbon electricity could soon be here – but staying at 100% throughout the year will be much more difficult to achieve. So what does the journey to decarbonisation look like?</p>
<h2>Headwinds to decarbonisation</h2>
<p>To paint the UK’s energy future, it is important to first understand how electricity is generated today. The graph below is a visualisation of British electricity generation in October 2018. Periods of strong wind (in red) and sun (yellow) combined with nuclear power (green) meant that on some days, more than 75% of electricity came from low-carbon sources. With solar prices still decreasing and the government recently agreeing a <a href="https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/27/interview-scottishpower-ceo-offshore-wind-energy-uk/">major deal</a> for offshore wind to produce one-third of the UK’s power by 2030, the country’s first hours of low-carbon power could arrive within the next five years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267662/original/file-20190404-123431-va8mr9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267662/original/file-20190404-123431-va8mr9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267662/original/file-20190404-123431-va8mr9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267662/original/file-20190404-123431-va8mr9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267662/original/file-20190404-123431-va8mr9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267662/original/file-20190404-123431-va8mr9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267662/original/file-20190404-123431-va8mr9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">British electricity generation in October 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Andrew Crossland/MyGridGB, Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>But the graph also highlights the other side to the UK’s energy story. When the wind is weak and the skies dark, low-carbon sources provide less than 25% of electricity generation. On average, low-carbon technologies accounted for <a href="https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/renewables-hit-record-high-in-2018-as-fossil-fuels-faltered">more than 45%</a> of British electricity in 2018 – and almost half of that came from nuclear plants. Saying goodbye to fossil fuels quickly might mean accepting that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/nuclear-power-2534">ever-controversial</a> form of energy will play some role in the UK’s electricity mix in the medium term. </p>
<p>Even with the aid of nuclear power, electricity consumption in Britain is set to increase dramatically in the coming decade. As electric cars continue their journey to the mainstream, traditional transport fuels will be replaced by electricity. The yearly energy demand of transport fuels is currently more than double the UK’s national electricity consumption.</p>
<p>Similarly, plans to decarbonise the UK’s heat generation – currently 66% is generated by gas – by converting to electric heating systems will also place huge pressures on demand. During winter months, heat can consume more than three times the daily energy demands of electricity – and over a full annual cycle it constitutes 50% of total energy demand. Collectively, these factors will move the goalposts for 100% low-carbon electricity further and further away. </p>
<h2>Powering through</h2>
<p>While the huge efficiency increase of electric vehicles over internal combustion engines should cushion the impact of electric vehicles on the UK’s energy future, the country will need to diversify its energy mix as much as possible to bring those goalposts back into sight. This means continued growth in wind, solar, hydro, biomass, energy efficiency and energy storage to carry the country through the calm, grey days. Precisely how much growth is needed depends exactly on the future of energy demand, but to give some perspective of scale, more than 80% of the total UK energy supply, including electricity, land transport and heat, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/727620/Energy_Flow_Chart_2017.pdf">still comes from fossil fuels</a>. The tens of billions of pounds already invested in low-carbon electricity is just the start of the UK’s journey to decarbonised energy.</p>
<p>It also means seeking alternative, non-electric methods to replace fossil fuels in heat generation. Capturing waste heat from industrial processes, geothermal heat from the ground and heat extracted from water bodies could all limit demands on the electricity sector and make it easier to achieve more low-carbon heat and power. Southampton <a href="https://www.theade.co.uk/case-studies/visionary/southampton-district-energy-scheme">already</a> heats much of its city centre geothermally – and many cities can and should follow suit. Recent work published by the <a href="http://www.britgeothermal.org/">BritGeothermal</a> estimates that geothermal energy alone could meet the UK’s heat demand for at least 100 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268141/original/file-20190408-2924-c1dyks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268141/original/file-20190408-2924-c1dyks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268141/original/file-20190408-2924-c1dyks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268141/original/file-20190408-2924-c1dyks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268141/original/file-20190408-2924-c1dyks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268141/original/file-20190408-2924-c1dyks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268141/original/file-20190408-2924-c1dyks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Southampton’s geothermal energy plant: an example for the UK to follow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Southampton_District_Energy_Scheme.jpg">Suitcivil/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Concerted and sustained effort from both government and individuals is required if the UK is to achieve a low-carbon nirvana in heat, transport and power. State support of the renewables industry through ensuring long-term investment security and regulations to create energy-efficient and electricity-generating new homes will be essential in the UK’s decarbonisation journey. The UK population will need to consume less energy individually, use energy more efficiently and use their voices and money to support renewable solutions. They will also need to elect representatives with a genuine ambition to decarbonise the country – rather than to commission <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/19/deep-coal-mine-gets-go-ahead-in-cumbria-despite-protests">new coal mines</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ignoring-local-concerns-on-fracking-will-come-back-to-haunt-britain-66694">fracking sites</a>.</p>
<p>Large-scale changes are already in motion. Shell recently stated that it wants to become the world’s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-11/shell-says-it-can-be-world-s-top-power-producer-and-make-money">largest electricity supplier</a> and is among many oil giants investing heavily in renewables. While the need for new forms of energy presents big challenges for the UK it also offers a wealth of opportunities for the current generation to be part of an energy revolution. If the UK embraces the task, it could be joining <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/costa-rica-electricity-renewable-energy-300-days-2017-record-wind-hydro-solar-water-a8069111.html">Costa Rica</a>, New Zealand and Norway as low-carbon powerhouses before the middle of the century. As one specialist at the start of his career and another nearing the end of his, we say bring that challenge on.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1114949">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Andrew Crossland CEng is affiliated with the IET, Solar Trade Association (member), MCS Working Group for Electrical Energy storage and The Durham Energy Institute</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Gluyas receives funding through Durham University from the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council for the (National) Centre for Energy Systems Integration and he leads on heat for that research group. BritGeothermal of which Jon is part is an unfunded national research grouping in the UK that works on and publishes on geothermal energy. Jon has also consulted on projects in terms of utilising available heat. He is also Executive Director of Durham Energy Institute of Durham University which receives a range of funding for energy research.</span></em></p>The UK has made huge progress in decarbonising its energy mix, but the hard work has just begun.Andrew Crossland, Associate Fellow, Durham Energy Institute, Durham UniversityJon Gluyas, Professor of Geoenergy, Carbon Capture and Storage, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1089692019-01-10T14:38:30Z2019-01-10T14:38:30ZBritain has shifted 30% of its electricity away from fossil fuels in just nine years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253097/original/file-20190109-32133-1e3lkxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=477%2C12%2C3457%2C1814&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">By Joe Dunckley / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nine years ago, Britain generated nearly 75% of its electricity using natural gas and coal. In 2018, this dropped to under 45% – a remarkable <a href="https://www.drax.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Energy-Revolution-Global-Outlook-Report-Final-Dec-2018-COP24.pdf">transition away from fossil fuels</a> in under a decade. </p>
<p>As energy efficiency improved, demand fell, and the UK generated less electricity than at any point <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-electricity-generation-2018-falls-to-lowest-since-1994">since 1994</a>. Our own analysis below looks at the past year, using similar data for Great Britain (as Northern Ireland has a separate power system), and we include net imports from France, the Netherlands and Ireland as an overall part of electrical generation. Here are a few things we found:</p>
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<p>In 2018, Britain was coal-free for a record 1,898 hours – that’s up from just 200 hours in 2016. Coal generation fell for the sixth year in a row, and the country now has substantial periods without coal power (the longest stretch was just over three days straight).</p>
<p>For comparison, the 5% of electricity generated from coal was a broadly similar level to the combined total of solar and hydro (see table at end of the article). Wind increased its output to 17% of the total, and combined with solar these two renewables generated more electricity than nuclear – another significant milestone.</p>
<p>However, low levels of coal generation averaged across the year mask its importance at times when the electrical demand is particularly high. For example, over the week of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/beast-from-the-east-the-science-behind-europes-siberian-chill-92385">Beast from the East</a> cold snap in February 2018, the gas system experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-tests-uk-gas-security-to-the-limit-92698">significant stress</a> and coal stepped in to provide nearly a quarter of Britain’s electricity. As coal generation is set to be <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/coal-generation-in-great-britain-the-pathway-to-a-low-carbon-future">phased out by 2025</a>, the electrical system needs to continue to find alternative power sources to cope during extreme weather events.</p>
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<p>Our analysis shows that annual renewable generation has increased by 27 terawatt hours (TWh) over the three years since 2015. This is particularly impressive considering the <a href="https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C nuclear plant</a> will produce a similar annual amount of electricity but will take three times as long to build (from contract signing).</p>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>But what about the decade ahead? Could Britain repeat its success since 2010 and reduce its coal and natural gas generation by a further 30 percentage points? Under this scenario, the country would then generate just a sixth of its electricity from fossil fuels. </p>
<p>It’s definitely possible, but the next decade will be more challenging for two main reasons: the demand for electricity is expected to rise rather than fall, and incorporating ever greater levels of variable renewable generation will need additional flexibility.</p>
<p>To achieve this, new renewable generation – new solar panels, new turbines, new hydro, tidal, marine and biomass generation – will have to replace an estimated 100 TWh per year (about four Hinkley Point Cs) from fossil fuels. That would require a build programme that was broadly 50% greater than the previous nine years. </p>
<p>Given the continued development of offshore wind in particular, this seems challenging but achievable. Solar and wind prices keep falling, which will help. Indeed, the UK’s business and energy secretary Greg Clarke <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/after-the-trilemma-4-principles-for-the-power-sector">recently said</a> that “it is looking likely that by the mid 2020s, green power will be the cheapest power. It can be zero subsidy”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253231/original/file-20190110-32139-r8crzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What if all these cars were electric?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jaroslaw Kilian / Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, at some point over the next decade, electrical demand will stop falling as electric vehicles gain market share from fossil fuel vehicles, and electrical heating for homes becomes more popular. As an indication of the scale of the transport demand, in 2017 UK cars and taxis travelled <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/762011/tsgb-2018-report-summaries.pdf">254 billion miles</a>. If all those journeys were taken in electric vehicles about as efficient as the latest <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=40585&id=40385">Hyundai or Tesla</a> then total electrical demand would increase by a quarter (over 80 TWh). </p>
<p>These vehicles would need the equivalent of three Hinkley Point Cs to charge them over the year.</p>
<p>This is also a similar level to current generation from renewables. The UK also needs to consider how to fill the gap that would be lost from fuel duty, which is forecast to raise around <a href="https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/fuel-duties/">£28 billion</a> this financial year.</p>
<p>If charging these vehicles adds to electrical demand at peak times, there would be substantial new infrastructure costs (more pylons, stronger electrical sub-stations). If Britain adopts a smarter system, fleets of electric vehicles could provide network support by changing their times of charging or even providing electricity back to the grid. This could provide a massive new form of flexibility that is needed to accommodate greater levels of weather dependent renewable generation. This is not an easy task, though, and needs <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/energy-data-taskforce">better communication</a> between vehicle, owner and power companies.</p>
<h2>Steady progress</h2>
<p>Overall, 2018 saw steady progress for low carbon generation, including record months for wind, biomass and, mid-heatwave, solar:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253249/original/file-20190110-43532-1cv2mly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Great Britain’s renewables - percent of monthly generation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Grant Wilson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Looking to 2019, with more renewable capacity being installed, it is possible that solar could overtake coal, and renewables could generate more than nuclear for every single month. They could also generate more than coal and gas combined over a month for the first ever time. If any of these do happen, it will be yet another indication of the speed at which Britain’s electricity system is changing. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The electrical generation data is from <a href="http://www.elexonportal.co.uk/">Elexon</a> and <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/balancing-data/data-explorer">National Grid</a>. Data from other analyses (such as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-trends">BEIS</a> or <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes">DUKES</a>) will differ due to methodologies and additional data, particularly by including combined heat and power, and other on-site generation which is not monitored by Elexon and National Grid.
Renewables in this analysis = wind + solar + hydro + biomass.</em></p>
<p><iframe id="clLPW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/clLPW/8/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108969/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson has received funding from the UK Energy Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Staffell works with Drax Group to produce the Electric Insights website, and received funding from EPSRC to work in this area.
</span></em></p>But electric vehicles will pose a significant challenge over the next decade.Grant Wilson, Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of BirminghamIain Staffell, Lecturer in Sustainable Energy, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1076592018-12-07T12:56:11Z2018-12-07T12:56:11ZHow Brexit could benefit the UK’s climate change policies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249320/original/file-20181206-128205-1hihdfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A better tomorrow?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunset-conisholme-wind-farm-lincolnshire-692882863?src=xzWnaEcEPDc8cWli97Bdrg-1-3">John-Kelly/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the UK leaving the European Union and eyeing new trade opportunities beyond the EU, it should also be looking for ways to take forward its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-carbontrading/britain-looking-at-four-options-for-carbon-pricing-after-brexit-govt-official-idUSKCN1MR1FA">policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions</a>. One of the few advantages of Brexit might lie in being able to design policies that haven’t gone down the long and winding road of Brussels’ consensus building.</p>
<p>Since the beginning of industrialisation, humanity has released <a href="http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2014.ems">1.5 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide</a> into the atmosphere and, as a consequence, <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt">global temperatures have risen by 1°C</a>. As the recent <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">IPCC special report</a> reminds us, we must pump out less than another 770 Gigatons to keep the total rise below 1.5°C. </p>
<p>This is not going to be easy. The <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions/ndc-registry#eq-1">currently stated ambitions</a> of the world’s nations would actually increase outputs from their current total of just over 40 Gigaton a year to around <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">55 Gigaton by 2030</a>. At 50 Gigaton a year we blow the 770 Gt budget in just 15 years. So, more must be done, and it must be done immediately.</p>
<h2>To tax or trade?</h2>
<p>A carbon tax is arguably the most effective way of addressing the emissions problem as it provide a simple framework that everyone understands as well as the regulatory stability that allows businesses to plan ahead. Carbon taxes send a clear price signal and incentivise households and industry to change their behaviour. </p>
<p>Taxes are also superior to top-down regulation such as sector-specific reduction targets or even <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/2193-2697-2-8">emissions trading</a>. A carbon tax factors in the cost of CO₂ emissions to production, thereby forcing industry to account for it and reduce emissions. It is “technology-blind”, meaning a carbon tax does not pick a winner in the market and instead leaves it to industry to develop more sustainable production. </p>
<p>In practice, however, carbon taxes haven’t been very popular. Political leaders worry about support for anything called a tax and shy away from it. The recent <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46437904">fuel protests in France</a> are a testimony to that fear. By increasing the cost of energy, taxes also risk increasing fuel poverty. In short, squaring the circle between climate goals and distributional equity is a matter of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy201624">energy justice</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249327/original/file-20181206-128220-19ox35q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249327/original/file-20181206-128220-19ox35q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249327/original/file-20181206-128220-19ox35q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249327/original/file-20181206-128220-19ox35q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249327/original/file-20181206-128220-19ox35q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249327/original/file-20181206-128220-19ox35q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249327/original/file-20181206-128220-19ox35q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A carbon tax would put a price on the carbon businesses emit, forcing them to take action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coal-fired-power-station-cooling-towers-392008096?src=rQBUJf_HU08ya2WzSqll_Q-1-0">ditttmer/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The EU instead opted for an emissions trading system, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/participating-in-the-eu-ets">ETS</a>, and other countries, including China, have adopted <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/china-to-launch-world-s-largest-emissions-trading-system">similar schemes</a>. The ETS puts a cap on emissions, forcing polluters to buy carbon permits if they emit more than they can under their allocated quota.</p>
<p>Permits are tradeable, thus creating a price signal for carbon. The problem with the EU’s ETS is that, until very recently, it has delivered prices around €5 per ton or less – a far cry from the €45 or more that would be needed for it to be compliant with targets set in the <a href="https://sandbag.org.uk/carbon-price-viewer/">2015 Paris agreement</a>. The ETS also only covers a few industries, such as electricity generation, that, together, produce <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en">only 45% of the EU’s total emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>Power to the people</h2>
<p>So how can the UK enhance its climate leadership and keep citizens and businesses on board? A place for inspiration is Canada, the first nation to implement a <a href="https://citizensclimatelobby.uk/carbon-fee-dividend/fee-dividend-in-the-uk/">carbon-fee and dividend scheme</a>. </p>
<p>Their main idea was to tax carbon emissions and ensure money taken in taxes is given to the public in the form of a dividend paid to households. There is much to celebrate in such a scheme. The initial tax level might be something like £25 per tonne of carbon dioxide and, in the UK, we each produce about <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC">six tonnes per year</a>. A rough back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the tax could generate £150 per person per year. </p>
<p>A recent study estimates that the majority of households will come out rather well on a net basis, <a href="https://www.carbon-dividends.ca/">getting more back in carbon dividends</a> than they would pay in carbon taxes, should the government roll out the scheme nationwide as planned.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/make-carbon-taxes-acceptable/">research</a> has shown, redistributing carbon revenues not only helps social equality, it also improves the acceptance of such taxes among taxpayers. It therefore makes it very hard for a future government to reverse the policy if people become attached to payments from the state. Just think how hard it would be for any government to repeal the UK’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/winter-fuel-payment">winter fuel allowance</a> for over 65s.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-bills-could-rise-if-brexit-threatens-northern-irelands-unique-energy-agreement-with-ireland-106269">Electricity bills could rise if Brexit threatens Northern Ireland's unique energy agreement with Ireland</a>
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<p>An effective and socially acceptable carbon fee, in turn, fosters economic competitiveness. The Nordic countries, which pioneered carbon taxes, have become <a href="https://nordic.businessinsider.com/denmark-finland-and-sweden-are-the-worlds-best-at-clean-technology-innovation-2017-6/">leaders in clean technology</a>. Denmark has some of the world’s <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%253A52015SC0221">lowest unit energy costs</a> thanks to drastically reduced energy use in their economic output. This, among other reasons, effectively shields the country’s industry from energy price shocks.</p>
<p>The UK, in many respects already a climate frontrunner thanks to its <a href="https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05927">carbon floor price</a>, stands to learn from the Canadian experience as its post-Brexit low carbon policies take shape. In Europe, the UK is the second-largest polluter, behind only Germany in <a href="http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions">overall greenhouse gas emissions</a>. </p>
<p>The UK can exert true leadership by designing progressive policies that benefit both people and the climate. If they work, this might set a model across the continent – whether from within or outside the EU.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107659/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Waltham is affiliated with the Citizen's Climate Lobby</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreas Goldthau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brexit may be an unexpected boon for the UK’s climate leadership. Here’s how the UK can seize the initiative.Andreas Goldthau, Professor in International Relations, Royal Holloway University of LondonDavid Waltham, Professor of Geophysics, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1072902018-11-27T14:07:11Z2018-11-27T14:07:11ZUK’s ‘illegal’ backup power scheme subsidised fossil fuels – a greener alternative should now replace it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246913/original/file-20181122-182068-1rhfdzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The amount of renewable, low-carbon, energy the UK produces is increasing, but it is very different to traditional types of power. It can’t just be turned on when wanted. As a result, the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/electricity/wholesale-market/market-efficiency-review-and-reform/electricity-market-reform/capacity-market-cm-rules">capacity market</a> scheme – essentially a programme of subsidies – was set up to help provide backup power when the supply of renewable energy the UK produces is outpaced by demand. </p>
<p>Until recently this was the flagship mechanism for helping the UK meet its climate change reduction targets while maintaining a secure electricity supply. However, on November 15 the European Court of Justice <a href="http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=207792&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1430154">ruled</a> that the European Commission had failed to properly investigate the scheme, rendering it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/15/uk-backup-power-subsidies-illegal-european-court-capacity-market">unlawful</a>. Despite its huge implications, this news was buried beneath blanket coverage of prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, which came out at the same time. </p>
<h2>How did the capacity market work?</h2>
<p>Participants in the capacity market scheme – predominately fossil fuel-based power suppliers – were paid per megawatt (MW) for the capacity they offered. In order to offset the risk of investing in less predictable supply, fixed monthly payments were made to these suppliers. The first contracts were agreed at the end of 2014 and their requirement to start providing capacity started last winter. </p>
<p>Funding of up to £2.6 billion a year was set aside in 2012 by the UK government, as it was deemed the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/66039/7103-energy-bill-capacity-market-impact-assessment.pdf">most appropriate mechanism</a> for helping meet demand in an increasingly supply-led system. </p>
<p>However, in 2014 Tempus Energy <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/brave-legal-challenge-launched-against-uk-capacity-market">raised objections</a> about the scheme to the European Court of Justice. Its stance was that it favoured the use of fossil fuels rather than considering other mechanisms, such as flexible price incentives for industry and domestic users, which involve reducing costs when there is an abundance of wind and solar, and increasing the cost when there is not. Smart metering is one way in which this can be done on a domestic scale. This can also happen on an industrial level with incentives to increase or reduce demand based on supply levels, for example, <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/balancing-services/reserve-services/demand-turn">Demand Turn Up</a> or <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/balancing-services/frequency-response-services/firm-frequency-response-ffr">Firm Frequency Response</a>.</p>
<p>In essence Tempus argued that the scheme made it harder for it and other demand management companies to compete with the well established fossil fuel-based power generators.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246995/original/file-20181123-149317-670h8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246995/original/file-20181123-149317-670h8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246995/original/file-20181123-149317-670h8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246995/original/file-20181123-149317-670h8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246995/original/file-20181123-149317-670h8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246995/original/file-20181123-149317-670h8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246995/original/file-20181123-149317-670h8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ECJ had serious concerns about the design of the scheme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/environmental-law-symbol-industrial-smoke-stack-494528470?src=ULdAApXDmWYkAxUidfwbGw-1-1">shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/443686/BIS-15-417-state-aid-the-basics-guide.pdf">EU state aid rules</a>, member states are obliged to consider alternative ways of meeting market demand for power before subsidising polluting generators. They also require any capacity boosting measures to be designed in a way that provides “adequate incentives” for operators of new, cleaner technologies. </p>
<h2>Subsidising fossil fuels</h2>
<p><a href="https://blog.tempusenergy.com/blog/2018/11/16/we-have-just-removed-56-billion-worth-of-state-aid-from-the-capacity-markets-where-was-this-money-going">Tempus data</a> shows that the capacity market had predominantly supported fossil fuel providers. Therefore, the UK had effectively been state funding fossil fuel power generators to be on standby to produce power when, and if, there was a shortfall in the electricity being produced. The concern is that by using the scheme to predominantly fund fossil fuel provision, Britain will continue to rely on such technologies into the future, reducing the ability to cut climate change targets and uphold agreements. </p>
<p>So on November 15, the ECJ ruled in favour of Tempus and stated that the European Commission was wrong to clear the scheme for state aid approval in 2014 without looking into it in more detail. As a result the market has been suspended indefinitely. </p>
<p>The decision means the UK government cannot now issue capacity market payments to energy firms. In addition, it cannot hold any further auctions, including the upcoming auctions scheduled to run in January and February 2019 to secure additional power capacity for upcoming winters. </p>
<p>Britain will, most probably, be able to keep the lights on, but it might come at a higher financial cost in the short term. Energy policy in the UK is incredibly complex. There are numerous incentives, taxes and subsidies all with the aim of reducing cost, reducing carbon and meeting green house reduction targets and producing a sustainable supply. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246997/original/file-20181123-149323-o6fjyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246997/original/file-20181123-149323-o6fjyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246997/original/file-20181123-149323-o6fjyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246997/original/file-20181123-149323-o6fjyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246997/original/file-20181123-149323-o6fjyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246997/original/file-20181123-149323-o6fjyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246997/original/file-20181123-149323-o6fjyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You may be paying more for your electricity this winter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/switch-light-bulb-289649816?src=9KiZHQF6b_gJHh55Sxuwpg-3-79">shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A review of the <a href="http://www.dieterhelm.co.uk/energy/energy/cost-of-energy-review-independent-report/">cost of energy in 2017</a>, by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, outlined the UK’s energy policy to be lacking in terms of consistency and ability to meet the needs of the country. It stated that, “energy policy, regulation and market design are not fit for the purposes of the emerging low carbon energy market”. </p>
<h2>A chance for green energy</h2>
<p>It’s hard to move from a dispatchable system to a more supply-led system. All of the UK’s costing models and energy policies are essentially based on the ability to burn something to provide power, and the economics have developed from the traditional supply-and-demand approach. What Britain now needs to do is move from traditional demand based policies to those which include the whole energy system.</p>
<p>The capacity market attempted to do part of this by favouring fossil fuels as a mechanism to cope with short term shortfalls in supply. The UK needs to be doing better than this. It must adopt a truly systems-based approach to dealing with its increasing renewable supply. </p>
<p>This ruling, while problematic in the short term, is a long term opportunity to develop a more dynamic and flexible energy system. The UK must invest in demand management programmes rather than only investing in generating assets. Britain needs to embrace a truly low carbon system with active demand management systems alongside renewable technology – enabling it to phase out its reliance on fossil fuels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107290/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcelle McManus receives funding from Research Councils in the UK, including the EPSRC and the BBSRC and also through the Royal Academy of Engineering. In the past, her work has been supported, though PhD studentships for team members, by the National Grid via Case Awards. </span></em></p>The UK’s “illegal” backup power subsidy scheme effectively subsidised fossil fuel power generation. Lets use the hiatus to build a more flexible, low carbon energy system.Marcelle McManus, Professor of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1034782018-09-20T12:21:03Z2018-09-20T12:21:03ZLow levels of carbon monoxide poisoning can be very difficult to spot – and can cause brain damage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237286/original/file-20180920-129853-rh5upp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Carbon monoxide (CO), like many gases, cannot be detected by our human senses. We cannot see it, smell it or taste it. But unlike many gases, small amounts are extremely harmful to us.</p>
<p>In 2015 (the most recent year for which statistics are available), <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/adhocs/006135numberofdeathsfromaccidentalcarbonmonoxidepoisoning">53 people</a> in the UK died from accidental carbon monoxide poisoning. This compares with 170 people <a href="https://www.cpsc.gov/Safety-Education/Safety-Education-Centers/Carbon-Monoxide-Information-Center/Carbon-Monoxide-Questions-and-Answers">in the US</a>. While this may not seem like a huge amount, deaths from carbon monoxide are largely preventable. There is, however, a general <a href="https://emj.bmj.com/content/19/5/386">lack of knowledge</a> about the dangers of carbon monoxide among both the general public and the scientific community.</p>
<h2>The symptoms</h2>
<p>We know the most about acute poisoning; we have some understanding of the wide range of symptoms and after effects that people who are poisoned in a single episode to a large amount of carbon monoxide suffer. But what we don’t know as much about are the effects of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3404310/">poisoning at lower levels</a>, where people are exposed to smaller amounts of carbon monoxide, sometimes over a lengthy period, that do not trigger their carbon monoxide alarm. </p>
<p>Such people suffer nonspecific but significant symptoms. They may well have engaged with healthcare professionals, and had their symptoms investigated, but the nature of such symptoms do not lend themselves to a straightforward diagnosis once obvious physiological causes have been discounted.</p>
<p>The symptoms of <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/carbon-monoxide-poisoning/">acute</a> poisoning may include headache, stomach upsets, dizziness, drowsiness, confusion, and seizure, leading to coma and death. These are the cases that are <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/fit-fiddle-father-who-died-1318615">more likely to be reported</a> by the media. </p>
<p>Those of <a href="https://cks.nice.org.uk/carbon-monoxide-poisoning#!topicsummary">chronic</a> poisoning, meanwhile are variable, somewhat vague, and nonspecific. People report fatigue, flu-like symptoms, memory issues, musculoskeletal pain, motor disorders and emotional (affective) disorders, where they may be irritable, moody or depressed. These symptoms vary widely from person to person, for reasons as yet not fully understood, but are not necessarily connected to the amount of carbon monoxide to which they have been exposed.</p>
<h2>Fine – or dead</h2>
<p>Another aspect of the lack of knowledge about carbon monoxide concerns the aftermath of poisoning. Carbon monoxide is understood <a href="https://www.msdmanuals.com/en-gb/professional/injuries-poisoning/poisoning/carbon-monoxide-poisoning">to leave the blood quickly</a> once the person is away from the source of poisoning.</p>
<p>This is in line with the popular view of how we are poisoned, which is that the damage carbon monoxide causes results from oxygen starvation (hypoxia), as carbon monoxide binds with haemoglobin to form carboxyhaemoglobin. Oxygen cannot, therefore, be transported in to or out of the body’s organs and tissues. A person is essentially slowly suffocated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237175/original/file-20180919-158240-je5ghf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237175/original/file-20180919-158240-je5ghf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237175/original/file-20180919-158240-je5ghf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237175/original/file-20180919-158240-je5ghf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237175/original/file-20180919-158240-je5ghf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237175/original/file-20180919-158240-je5ghf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237175/original/file-20180919-158240-je5ghf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not enough houses are fitted with carbon monoxide alarms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/carbon-monoxide-alarm-mounted-interior-wall-498076648?src=Fukg4QIpQZd7wTVqbVDfWg-1-2">Abimages/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This line of thinking means that the assumption that once the person is away from the carbon monoxide, recovery will commence, is easily made. But mechanisms of poisoning are more complicated. Hypoxia undoubtedly plays a significant role, as does what is known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reperfusion_injury">reperfusion injury</a>, which is further damage caused when oxygen returns to tissues that have been previously starved. Carbon monoxide, however, also binds to proteins other than haemoglobin, and it is a toxin which is known to affect cellular respiration and causes an inflammatory response. The brain and the heart seem <a href="https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201606-1275CI">most susceptible to damage</a>. </p>
<p>People who have been poisoned may therefore suffer from neurological or cognitive deficits, psychological effects and cardiovascular issues. Cruelly, such symptoms may occur <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-09/uopm-leo090304.php">weeks after initial poisoning</a> symptoms have abated, and for some people they will be permanent.</p>
<h2>Prolonged impact</h2>
<p>What also often remains unsaid but is crucial to consider is the emotional toll of poisoning. This is something that is evident from my ongoing research, which centres on collecting the accounts of those who have been affected by carbon monoxide poisoning. </p>
<p>One sufferer I’ve spoken to has had to change her career entirely, as she could no longer cope with the demands of running her own, previously very successful, business. A young teacher I met with struggles with hyperacuity, meaning that she has become extremely and painfully sensitive to all loud noises. Relationships can also be adversely affected, as people don’t have the same emotional behaviours, and memories are altered. A husband I spoke to completely forgot that his wife of 30 years had never liked drinking tea. It has a significant impact: people have to learn to live with what is in effect a <a href="https://www.headway.org.uk/about-brain-injury/individuals/types-of-brain-injury/carbon-monoxide-poisoning/carbon-monoxide-poisoning-symptoms-and-treatment/">brain injury</a>.</p>
<p>Such sufferers may not be able to communicate, work or perform their usual daily activities in the same way that they did before they were poisoned. Some of my participants had many months or even years of visiting GPs and having investigations, only to be told that there is nothing wrong to be found. It is natural, of course, for GPs to focus on the person in front of them, rather than that person’s environment. There is currently very little tailored support for people in this situation.</p>
<h2>Steps to take</h2>
<p>Carbon monoxide is common; our bodies generate very small, measurable <a href="https://www.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00174.2012">amounts</a>. Habitual tobacco users have higher quantities, but seemingly without the burdensome, nonspecific symptoms described here. In domestic settings, excess carbon monoxide is formed by the incomplete combustion of any carbon-based fuel; so any faulty heating or cooking appliance using gas, wood, coal or smokeless fuel, and so on, could be a risk. </p>
<p>Many homes in middle and low income countries rely on some sort of solid fuel for cooking, lighting and heating, with the result that significant quantities of carbon monoxide are released into the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3673244/">indoor environment</a>, although statistics are not always readily available for the burden of suffering that this causes.</p>
<p>In contrast, we know that <a href="https://www.staygassafe.co.uk/">one in six UK homes</a> are estimated to have a dangerous gas appliance. Gas appliances should ideally be serviced annually. This includes all of the mandatory safety <a href="https://www.gassaferegister.co.uk/help-and-advice/gas-safety-in-the-home/get-your-appliances-checked/">checks</a> and some manufacturer-specific checks to ensure that the gas is burning safely. </p>
<p>Carbon monoxide audible alarms and monitors also need to be in place, even in households that only use electricity as fuel, as carbon monoxide can travel between properties. Currently, less than half of <a href="http://www.hse.gov.uk/gas/domestic/index.htm">UK households</a> have a <a href="http://www.co-bealarmed.co.uk/2017/02/over-half-of-uk-population-at-risk-from-the-silent-killer/">carbon monoxide alarm</a>, compared with around three quarters of <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2018/04/30/australians-lack-carbon-monoxide-nous/">Australian</a> homes. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>If you suspect a problem, call the gas emergency number on 0800 111 999, or the <a href="http://www.hse.gov.uk/gas/domestic/index.htm">Health and Safety Executive (HSE)</a> Gas Safety Advice Line on 0800 300 363.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Connolly receives funding from the Gas Safety Trust. </span></em></p>Low level carbon monoxide poisoning leads to a wide range of nonspecific but significant symptoms – making it very difficult to detect.Julie Connolly, Senior Lecturer in Health and Social Care, Liverpool John Moores UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/895982018-01-05T15:27:47Z2018-01-05T15:27:47ZWinds of change: Britain now generates twice as much electricity from wind as coal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200673/original/file-20180103-26139-1man3ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ShaunWilkinson / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just six years ago, more than 40% of Britain’s electricity was generated by burning coal. Today, that figure is <a href="http://energy-charts.org/">just 7%</a>. Yet if the story of 2016 was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-year-coal-collapsed-2016-was-a-turning-point-for-britains-electricity-70877">dramatic demise of coal</a> and its replacement by natural gas, then 2017 was most definitely about the growth of wind power. </p>
<p>Wind provided 15% of electricity in Britain last year (Northern Ireland shares an electricity system with the Republic and is calculated separately), up from 10% in 2016. This increase, a result of both more wind farms coming online and a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-section-7-weather">windier year</a>, helped further reduce coal use and also put a stop to the rise in natural gas generation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200850/original/file-20180104-26163-gf9ra3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Great Britain’s annual electrical energy mix 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author calculations from data sources: National Grid and Elexon</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In October 2017, the combination of wind, solar and hydro generated a quarter of Britain’s electricity over the entire month, a new record helped by ex-hurricane Ophelia and storm Brian. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200844/original/file-20180104-26139-2bscbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Great Britain’s annual electrical energy mix 2017 per month (note: nuclear and gas not shown)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author calculations from data sources: National Grid and Elexon</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since that record month, large new offshore wind farms have started to come online. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dudgeon_Offshore_Wind_Farm">Dudgeon</a> began generating off the Norfolk coast, as did <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rampion_Wind_Farm">Rampion</a>, which can be seen from Brighton town centre. </p>
<p>In all, Britain’s wind output increased by 14 terawatt hours between 2016 and 2017 – enough to power 4.5m homes. To give a sense of scale, this increase alone is more than the expected annual output from one of the two new nuclear reactors being built at <a href="https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a>.</p>
<p>Not only is offshore wind growing fast, it is also getting much cheaper. When the latest round of government <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/contracts-for-difference/contract-for-difference">auctions for low-carbon electricity</a> were awarded last year, two of the winning bids from offshore wind developers had a “strike price” of <a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-farms-britains-offshore-boom-is-concentrating-power-in-the-hands-of-a-few-very-large-developers-83836">£57.50 per megawatt hour (MWh)</a>. This is considerably cheaper than the equivalent contract for Hinkley Point of £92.50/MWh (in 2012 prices).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200966/original/file-20180105-159080-17ubc76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rampion wind farm begins about 13km offshore from Brighton.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dominicspics/36972037886/">Dominic Alves / flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although these wind farms won’t be built for another five years, this puts competitive pressure on other forms of low-carbon electricity. If there is to be a nuclear renaissance, or if fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage are to become a reality, these industries will have to adjust to the new economic reality of renewable energy. </p>
<h2>Britain is using less electricity</h2>
<p>Overall demand for electricity also continued its 12-year downward trend. More of the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14693062.2013.788858">electricity “embedded” in the products and services</a> used in the UK is now imported rather than produced at home, and energy efficiency measures mean the country can do more with less. This meant Britain in 2017 used about as much electricity as it did way back in 1987 – despite the considerable population growth.</p>
<p>At some point this trend will reverse though, as electric vehicles and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/heat-pump-research">heat pumps</a> become more common and electricity partly replaces <a href="http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/publications/modeling-the-uptake-of-plug-in-vehicles-in-a-heterogeneous-car-market-using-a-consumer-segmentation-approach.html">liquid fuels for transport</a> and natural gas for heating respectively. One major challenge this brings is how to accommodate <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.051">greater seasonal and daily variation</a> in the electricity system, without resorting to the benefits of fossil fuels, which can be pretty cheaply stored until required.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200677/original/file-20180103-26139-190ycvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200677/original/file-20180103-26139-190ycvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200677/original/file-20180103-26139-190ycvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200677/original/file-20180103-26139-190ycvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200677/original/file-20180103-26139-190ycvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200677/original/file-20180103-26139-190ycvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200677/original/file-20180103-26139-190ycvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity guzzlers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jan Faukner / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Electricity generated in Britain is now the cleanest it’s ever been. Coal and natural gas together produced <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/uk-low-carbon-generated-more-than-fossil-fuels-in-2017">less than half</a> of the total generated. Britain’s electricity was completely “coal free” for 613 hours last year, up from 200 hours in 2016. This position would be wholly unthinkable in many countries including Germany, India, China and the US, which still rely heavily on coal generation throughout the year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200843/original/file-20180104-26139-15np2s0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Great Britain’s annual electrical energy mix - fossil fuels drop below 50% for first time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author calculations from data sources: National Grid and Elexon</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the low level of coal generation over 2017 masks its continued importance in providing capacity during hours of peak demand. During the top 10% hours of highest electrical demand, coal provided a sixth of Britain’s electricity. When it matters most, coal is relied on more than nuclear, and more than the combined output from wind + solar + hydro. Additional energy storage could help wind and solar meet more of this peak demand with greater certainty.</p>
<p>Looking forward to 2018, we would be surprised if wind generation dropped much from its current levels. Last year wasn’t even particularly windy compared to the longer-term average, and more capacity will be coming online. Equally, it would be surprising if solar and hydro combined produced significantly less than they did last year. </p>
<p>It is therefore inevitable that another significant milestone will be reached this year. At some point, for several hours, wind, solar and hydro will together, for the first time, provide more than half of Britain’s electricity generation. This goes to show just how much a major power system can be reworked within a decade. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The data used in this article is based on the <a href="http://energy-charts.org/">Energy Charts</a> and <a href="http://electricinsights.co.uk/">Electric Insights</a> websites, which allow readers to visualise and explore data on generation and consumption from <a href="http://www.elexonportal.co.uk/">Elexon</a> and <a href="http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Electricity-transmission-operational-data/Data-explorer/">National Grid</a>. Data from other analyses (such as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-trends">BEIS</a> or <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes">DUKES</a>) will differ due to their methodology, particularly by including combined heat and power, and other on-site generation which is not monitored by National Grid and Elexon. Our estimated carbon emissions are based on Iain Staffell’s research published in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.037">Energy Policy</a>, and account for foreign emissions due to electricity imports and biomass fuel processing.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from the UK Energy Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Staffell works with Drax Group to produce the Electric Insights website, and received funding from EPSRC to work in this area. </span></em></p>As coal continues to collapse, large new wind farms are coming online. Electricity generated in Britain is the cleanest it’s ever been.Grant Wilson, Teaching and Research Fellow, Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of SheffieldIain Staffell, Lecturer in Sustainable Energy, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/838482017-11-27T13:30:28Z2017-11-27T13:30:28ZWe could use old coal mines to decarbonise heat – here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196152/original/file-20171123-18001-1drty2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rasta777/Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fossil fuels currently dominate the production of electricity and heat. Although renewable energy accounts for around <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/647386/Renewables.pdf">a quarter</a> of electricity produced in the UK, the production of central heating is dominated by natural gas, which supplies around <a href="http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/PO%5D%E2%80%99/ST-PN-0513/POST-PN-0513.pdf">70% of UK heat demand</a> (the UK has been a net importer of gas since 2004). </p>
<p>There are fewer low carbon alternatives for heat production than there are for electricity. Solar hot water and biomass are the two main touted alternatives. Solar hot water is usually produced at a domestic level and requires access to a south facing roof. Biomass can be used as a heat source but may be constrained by availability and the transportation of fuel. And so it is unclear how future heat demands could be met from low carbon sources.</p>
<p>Geothermal heat is one solution that offers a low carbon, secure and continuous energy source. Classic geothermal regions such as Iceland and New Zealand capitalise on their volcanic landscapes by capturing the steam and hot fluids produced as a result of tectonic activity. Geothermal fluids in the UK are over 100°C and hot enough to drive turbines, produce electricity and also supply heat. Also, geothermal fluids may issue naturally at the surface as hot springs and geysers, avoiding the need to drill to access them.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196158/original/file-20171123-17988-at51nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196158/original/file-20171123-17988-at51nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196158/original/file-20171123-17988-at51nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196158/original/file-20171123-17988-at51nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196158/original/file-20171123-17988-at51nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196158/original/file-20171123-17988-at51nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196158/original/file-20171123-17988-at51nn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Geothermal power generates 25% of Iceland’s total electricity production.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Burben/Shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, the UK is not characterised by such tectonic activity. But we believe that abandoned deep mines contain good geothermal potential.</p>
<h2>Geothermal potential</h2>
<p>The deeper you drill into the Earth, the warmer it gets. Geologists call this the Earth’s “geothermal gradient”, driven by heat produced at the Earth’s core that radiates towards the crust. In non-tectonic areas, temperatures increase on average by around <a href="http://grsj.gr.jp/iga/iga-files/Fridleifsson_et_al_IPCC_Geothermal_paper_2008.pdf">25°C per kilometre</a>. This means we can predict what temperature may be encountered at any specific depth. </p>
<p>But extracting geothermal energy from these warm depths is only possible if water is present and is able to flow from the rock. Heat and water flow are essential for extracting geothermal energy. </p>
<p>Abandoned coal mines, therefore, seem incredibly promising due to their networks of flooded galleries and shafts lying at depths of up to several hundred metres below the surface. One can be almost certain that the water flow necessary for deep geothermal wells will be found in these flooded underground voids. The risk of not finding flowing water underground can inhibit deep geothermal developments elsewhere.</p>
<p>Vast volumes (over <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/historical-coal-data-coal-production-availability-and-consumption-1853-to-2011">15 billion tonnes</a>) of coal have been extracted from deep mines in the UK over the last century. To put this into context, if this extracted coal were spread over the UK land surface, this would result in a five cm deep layer of coal across the country. Today, UK coal production from deep mining has declined to almost zero and the nation recently celebrated its first <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/21/britain-set-for-first-coal-free-day-since-the-industrial-revolution">coal free day</a> of power generation, in April 2017. </p>
<h2>Eco-friendly coal mines</h2>
<p>Think about this. The volume of coal extracted compares to an equivalent void volume underground. On this basis (once allowing for subsidence), we estimate that the abandoned mines of the UK contain around two billion cubic metres of water at temperatures which are constantly around 12-16°C, and in some instances higher still. If heat corresponding to a 4°C temperature drop was removed from this volume, around 38,500TJ of heat could be liberated. This conservative estimate could provide enough heat for around 650,000 homes nationally.</p>
<p>Clearly, you wouldn’t want to take a bath or heat your home with water at these low temperatures, but using a heat pump, the water temperature could be upgraded to more useful temperatures of 40-50°C. </p>
<p>A heat pump takes energy from a source such as water within an abandoned mine and “lifts” it to a more useful temperature. You can think of it working like a fridge: if you put food at room temperature in a fridge, after a while it will be cooled to the temperature of the fridge. The heat removed from the food is lost from the back of the fridge, which is why this area feels warm. The radiators in a home are effectively the same as the back of the fridge. A heat pump uses electricity to boost the temperature but for every kW of electrical power used, the heat pump will produce three to four kW of heat. This is why heat pumps are a low carbon alternative to gas boilers.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>So we know that the UK has sufficient potential for geothermal heat production in its extensive mines. The next consideration, then, is proximity to the heat demand. Given the low temperatures involved, the heat source needs to be close to the end user to minimise losses. Many UK towns and cities grew due to their coal reserves, meaning that centres of heat demand and areas of abandoned mines often coincide, making them ideal targets. The UK government’s <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/the-fifth-carbon-budget-the-next-step-towards-a-low-carbon-economy/">fifth carbon budget</a> sets out plans to decarbonise heat by stating that one in 20 homes should be connected to a heat network by 2030. This is an ambitious challenge but abandoned mines could make a significant contribution here.</p>
<p>Minewater district heating schemes have already been successfully developed at several locations. <a href="http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/oee.nrcan.gc.ca/files/pdf/publications/infosource/pub/ici/caddet/english/pdf/R122.pdf">One early example</a> was developed at the Ropak packaging plant in Springhill, Nova Scotia, in 1998. A minewater and heat pump system that uses minewater at 18°C provides heating and cooling for the 13,500-square-metre site leading to huge savings in avoided fuel-oil costs. And at Heerlen in the Netherlands, <a href="http://www.mijnwater.com/?lang=en">a larger scheme</a> has been operating since 2008, supplying heat to 500,000 square metres of commercial and residential buildings. Areas planned for new development in former mining areas make ideal targets as they provide an opportunity to incorporate the necessary above ground infrastructure.</p>
<p>But if coal mines are to decarbonise heat, we need to deploy these systems in more places. Is this possible? We think so. The fact that many coalfields are overlain by urban centres means that there is certainly good potential for many former mining areas. Although abandoned mines provide a lower temperature resource than deeper geothermal sources, they are systems known to flow copious quantities of relatively warm water and provide a readymade subsurface store of heat. </p>
<p>There is a delightful irony that the legacy of the dirtiest of fuels, coal, now has the potential to deliver a low carbon energy future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The legacy of the dirtiest of fuels – coal – has the potential to deliver a low carbon energy future.Charlotte Adams, Assistant Professor, Durham UniversityJon Gluyas, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.