tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/unconventional-gas-extraction-18307/articlesunconventional gas extraction – The Conversation2022-08-16T14:41:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881122022-08-16T14:41:41Z2022-08-16T14:41:41ZSouth Africa’s proposed fracking regulations should do more to protect groundwater<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479402/original/file-20220816-9763-z7u5be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Karoo landscape, a water-scarce area near potential shale gas sites.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo courtesy Surina Esterhuyse</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is extremely water scarce, and water supply will become more challenging in the future. The <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/publications/delicate-balance-water-scarcity-south-africa/">population and economy are growing</a>, increasing demand. Rainfall is variable and more extreme and prolonged droughts are expected because of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128183397000059">climate change</a>. More than 80% of South Africa’s available surface water resources are already <a href="https://www.dws.gov.za/Groundwater/Documents/NGS_Draft-Final_04012017.pdf">allocated for use</a>. Groundwater resources will therefore become more important in South Africa.</p>
<p>There is, however, a potential threat to those groundwater resources. South Africa depends heavily on <a href="https://cdn.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/planning-a-just-transition-in-south-africa.pdf">coal for energy</a> but its coal resources are being <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/265445/proved-coal-reserves-in-south-africa/">depleted</a>. The country may turn to unconventional oil and gas resources to augment energy supply. And methods to extract oil and gas can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479716307289">contaminate and deplete groundwater</a>. </p>
<p>Hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, is used to extract trapped oil and gas from underground geological formations. A mixture of water, chemicals and sand is injected into these formations under high pressure. This opens up micro-fractures in the rock to release the trapped oil and gas, but it can also disturb the deep geological formations and aquifers. Groundwater can be contaminated if deep saline groundwater migrates to potable groundwater resources via hydraulic connections.</p>
<p>In addition to migration of saline groundwater, the chemicals used during fracking can contaminate groundwater. Wastewater may also get into groundwater via spills and leaks. And the hydraulic fracturing process requires large volumes of water. </p>
<p>Regulations that are properly developed and enforced are therefore vital to protect groundwater resources in South Africa when <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41545-021-00145-y">extracting unconventional oil and gas</a>.</p>
<h2>Regulations to protect groundwater</h2>
<p>On 7 May 2021, the Department of Water and Sanitation published <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202105/44545gon406.pdf">regulations on the use of water in oil and gas extraction</a>. And on 11 July 2022, the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment published <a href="https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Proposed-Regulations-pertaining-to-the-Exploration-and-Production-of-Onshore-Oil-and-Gas-Requiring-Hydraulic-Fracturing.pdf">proposed regulations for the exploration and production of onshore oil and gas</a> for public comment. These regulations aim to protect the environment during oil and gas development. </p>
<p>The environment department also published a document for comment specifying what <a href="https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/NEMA-Intention-to-prescribe-minimum-conditions-for-onshore-exploration-of-oil-and-gas-intending-to-frack-8-July-2022.pdf">information must be supplied</a> when applying for a licence to produce oil and gas. The two departments’ regulations should be read together since both protect groundwater resources. </p>
<p>Based on a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41545-021-00145-y">survey</a> of South African groundwater experts that my colleagues and I conducted, I’ve reviewed the proposed regulations and identified aspects that need attention.</p>
<p>A strength of the regulations is that they list penalties for contraventions, which will help with enforcement. However, there are gaps in the regulations. Some extraction methods and related processes are not regulated. </p>
<h2>Gaps in fracking regulations</h2>
<p>The environment department’s regulations only address unconventional oil and gas development that requires hydraulic fracturing. Other techniques are also used to free those resources. For example, depressurisation can be used to liberate coalbed methane. All the extraction methods should be included in the regulations.</p>
<p>The regulations say that water sources and fracking wells at the extraction site should be at least 2km apart. This is not far enough. Based on what the survey of experts found, fracking wells should be at least 10km away from municipal wellfields, aquifers and water supply boreholes. They should be at least 5km away from seismically active springs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Karoo landscape with windpumps" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479226/original/file-20220815-16003-8q5rsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Putsonderwater, meaning ‘well without water’ in the extremely water-scarce area between Marydale and Groblershoop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo courtesy Danita Hohne</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These minimum distances, known as setbacks, are also needed where there are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41545-021-00145-y">other geological and groundwater features</a> that increase the risk of groundwater contamination. </p>
<p>The regulations do not address specific measures to contain fractures to the production zone, or to prevent fluids from migrating beyond this area. Operators should have to monitor these risks and report to the regulator. If monitoring shows that fluid is moving outside the production zone, operations must stop until the situation is corrected. </p>
<p>The proposed regulations don’t address fracturing fluid management. The water department regulations require that a list of chemicals planned for use in the fracturing fluids be submitted to the department for approval, but this alone is insufficient to protect groundwater. A risk management plan for each well that is to be fractured must be submitted to the regulator. It must identify the chemical ingredients and the volume and concentration of the fluid additives. The plan must assess the potential environmental and health risks of the fracturing fluids and additives – and show how operations will minimise risk. </p>
<p>The regulations require a waste management plan. It should be more comprehensive, by considering both solid waste and wastewater. The plan should include transport, storage and management of wastewater and other substances used, and procedures for preventing and addressing spills. It should monitor and report on the actual volume of recovered fluids, the chemical composition of these fluids, and any radioactive fluids that were identified. </p>
<p>The information disclosure regulations are inadequate. They require that various information sources be uploaded onto the website of the holder. They do not require public access to this information. It would be better to load the data onto a centralised website run by an independent institution, where it is available and in a usable form.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fracking-plans-could-affect-shared-water-resources-in-southern-africa-147684">How fracking plans could affect shared water resources in southern Africa</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The well decommissioning regulations do not specify how long decommissioned wells should be monitored. The risk of well leakage <a href="https://gisera.csiro.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Final-Report-GISERA-W20-Monitoring-of-Decommissioned-Wells.pdf">over the long term</a> means that a monitoring timeframe of <a href="https://seasgd.csir.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ch-5_Water_13Nov2016_LR.pdf">50 years or more may be necessary</a>. The regulations should consider who will be responsible and carry the associated costs. </p>
<p>Ancillary activities are not regulated. For example, there’s no mention of pipeline management or monitoring. Pipelines could leak and contaminate groundwater resources, especially if they are buried. </p>
<p>The minimum information requirements document also needs revision. Information about where wells will be located should be publicly available. For the groundwater baseline (the groundwater quality and quantity before fracking), both shallow and deep aquifers should be assessed, and possible fluid migration pathways should be identified.</p>
<p>If these aspects are addressed and the regulations properly enforced, the regulations will do a better job of protecting groundwater resources.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Surina Esterhuyse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New regulations for protecting water resources during oil exploration are inadequate and should be reviewed.Surina Esterhuyse, Senior Lecturer Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1130472019-03-20T18:53:28Z2019-03-20T18:53:28ZExpanding gas mining threatens our climate, water and health<p>Australia, like its competitors Qatar, Canada and the United States, aspires to become the world’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-natural-gas-exports-growth-2019-2018-1">largest exporter of gas</a>, <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/minister/price/media-releases/mr20181130a.html">arguing</a> this helps importing nations reduce their greenhouse emissions by replacing coal.</p>
<p>Yes, burning gas emits less carbon dioxide than burning coal. Yet the “fugitive emissions” – the methane that <a href="https://energy.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/2136223/MEI-Review-of-Methane-Emissions-26-October-2016.pdf">escapes, often unmeasured</a>, during <a href="https://www.eeb.cornell.edu/howarth/publications/f_EECT-61539-perspectives-on-air-emissions-of-methane-and-climatic-warmin_100815_27470.pdf">production</a>, <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/review-of-unaccounted-for-gas-benchmarks-methodology-prepared-by-Zincara-20170731.pdf">distribution</a> and <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.6b05531">combustion</a> of gas – is a <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Ch08SM_FINAL.pdf">much more potent short-term greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-gets-to-decide-whether-we-dig-up-coal-and-gas-49896">Who gets to decide whether we dig up coal and gas?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/276405/9789241514972-eng.pdf?ua=1">special report</a> issued by the World Health Organisation after the 2018 Katowice climate summit urged governments to take “specific commitments to reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants” such as methane, so as to boost the chances of staying with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement’s ambitious 1.5°C global warming limit</a>.</p>
<p>Current gas expansion plans in <a href="http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/Investors/Natural-gas-LNG-1475.aspx">Western Australia</a>, the <a href="https://theterritory.com.au/invest/investment-opportunities/gas-based-manufacturing">Northern Territory</a> and <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2019/2/28/more-gas-and-jobs-to-flow-as-10-billion-arrow-project-gets-the-green-light">Queensland</a>, where another 2,500 coal seam gas wells have been approved, reveal little impetus to deliver on this. Harvesting all of WA’s gas reserves would emit about <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2018/western-australias-gas-gamble/">4.4 times more carbon dioxide equivalent</a> than Australia’s total domestic energy-related emissions budget.</p>
<h2>Gas as a cause of local ill-health</h2>
<p>There are not only global, but also significant local and regional risks to health and well-being associated with unconventional gas mining. Our <a href="https://www.dea.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/DEA-Oil-and-Gas-final-28-11-18.pdf">comprehensive review</a> examines the current state of the evidence. </p>
<p>Since our previous reviews (see <a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-seam-gas-could-be-a-fracking-disaster-for-our-health-1493">here</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/dealing-with-the-health-risks-of-unconventional-gas-10987">here</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-scientist-csg-report-leaves-health-concerns-unanswered-32422">here</a>), <a href="https://www.psehealthyenergy.org/our-work/shale-gas-research-library/">more than 1,400 further peer-reviewed articles</a> have been published, helping to clarify how expanding unconventional gas production across Australia risks our health, well-being, climate, water and food security.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-scientist-csg-report-leaves-health-concerns-unanswered-32422">Chief Scientist CSG report leaves health concerns unanswered</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This research has been possible because, since 2010, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5963578/">17.6 million US citizens’ homes</a> have been within a mile (1.6km) of gas wells and fracking operations. Furthermore, some US research funding is independent of the gas industry, whereas much of Australia’s comparatively small budget for research in this area is channelled through an <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/GISERA%20conflict%20of%20interest%20%5BWEB%5D.pdf#overlay-context=content/gisera-and-conflict-interest">industry-funded CSIRO research hub</a>.</p>
<h2>Key medical findings</h2>
<p>There is evidence that living close to unconventional gas mining activities is linked to a wide range of health conditions, including <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272494416300317?via%3Dihub">psychological</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11469-017-9792-5">social</a> problems.</p>
<p>The US literature now consistently reports higher frequencies of <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/12/e1603021">low birth weight</a>, <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/full/10.1289/EHP2622?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%3dpubmed">extreme premature births</a>, <a href="https://insights.ovid.com/pubmed?pmid=26426945">higher-risk pregnancies</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412018317999?via%3Dihub">some birth defects</a>, in pregnancies spent closer to unconventional gas mining activities, compared with pregnancies further away. No parallel studies have so far been published in Australia. </p>
<p>US studies have found increased <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935118306339?via%3Dihub">indicators of cardiovascular disease</a>, higher rates of <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp281">sinus disorders, fatigue and migraines</a>, and hospitalisations for <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2534153">asthma</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4503720/">heart, neurological</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350618303901?via%3Dihub">kidney and urinary tract</a> conditions, and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0170423">childhood blood cancer</a> near shale gas operations. </p>
<p>Exploratory studies in Queensland found higher rates of hospitalisation for <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5451990/">circulatory</a>, <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-016-2787-5">immune system</a> and <a href="https://link-springer-com.ezp01.library.qut.edu.au/article/10.1007%2Fs10995-018-2511-4">respiratory disorders in children</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00207233.2017.1413221">adults</a> in the Darling Downs region where coal seam gas mining is concentrated. </p>
<h2>Water exposure</h2>
<p>Chemicals found in <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP143463&dsid=DS1">gas mining wastewater</a> include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716322392">volatile organic compounds</a> such as benzene, phenols and polyaromatic hydrocarbons, as well as heavy metals, radioactive materials, and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6197861/">endocrine-disrupting substances</a> – compounds that can affect the body’s hormones. </p>
<p>This wastewater can <a href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/hfstudy/recordisplay.cfm?deid=332990">find its way into aquifers and surface water</a> through spillage, injection procedures, and leakage from wastewater ponds. </p>
<p>The environmental safety of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11356-015-4254-8">treated wastewater</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/30/dumping-15m-tonnes-of-salt-at-queensland-creek-considerable-risk-to-water">vast quantities of crystalline salt produced</a> is unclear, raising questions about cumulative long-term impacts on soil productivity and drinking water security. </p>
<p>Concern about the unconventional gas industry’s use of large quantities of water has increased since 2013. Particularly relevant to Australian agriculture and remote communities is research showing an unexpected but consistent <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/4/8/eaar5982.full.pdf">increase in the “water footprint”</a> of gas wells across all six major shale oil and gas mining regions of the US from 2011 to 2016. Maximum increases in water use per well (7.7-fold higher, Permian deposits, New Mexico and Texas) and wastewater production per well (14-fold, Eagle Ford deposits, Texas) occurred where water stress is very high. The drop in water efficiency was tied to a drop in gas prices. </p>
<h2>Air exposure</h2>
<p>Research on the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00207233.2017.1413221">potentially harmful substances emitted</a> into the atmosphere during water removal, gas production and processing, wastewater handling and transport has expanded. These substances include <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es4053472">fine particulate pollutants, ground-level ozone</a>, <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/reveh.2018.33.issue-1/reveh-2017-0008/reveh-2017-0008.pdf">volatile organic compounds</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749117347176">polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4216869/">hydrogen sulfide, formaldehyde</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28030372">diesel exhaust</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5861625/">endocrine-disrupting chemicals</a>. </p>
<p>Measuring concentrations and human exposures to these pollutants is complicated, as they vary widely and unpredictably in both time and location. This makes it difficult to prove a definitive causal link to human health impacts, despite the mounting circumstantial evidence. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australians-need-a-national-environment-protection-agency-to-safeguard-their-health-93861">Why Australians need a national environment protection agency to safeguard their health</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.dea.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/DEA-Oil-and-Gas-final-28-11-18.pdf">Our review</a> found substantially more evidence of what we suspected in 2013: that gas mining poses significant threats to the global climate, to food and water supplies, and to health and well-being.</p>
<p>On this basis, Doctors for the Environment Australia (DEA) has reinforced its <a href="https://www.dea.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/DEA-Position-statement-on-onshore-oil-and-gas-mining-and-human-health-final-12-18.pdf">position</a> that no new gas developments should occur in Australia, and that governments should increase monitoring, regulation and management of existing wells and gas production and transport infrastructure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Haswell is affiliated with Doctors for the Environment Australia, the Climate and Health Alliance and the Public Health Association of Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Shearman is affiliated with. Doctors for the Environment Australia as Hon Advisor
</span></em></p>Gas mining is expanding across Australia, and has been touted as part of the answer to cutting emissions. But there is evidence that this rollout will pose significant health and environmental risks.Melissa Haswell, Professor of Health, Safety and Environment, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland University of TechnologyDavid Shearman, Emeritus Professor of Medicine, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/639112016-08-25T09:52:50Z2016-08-25T09:52:50ZFracking and health: What we know from Pennsylvania’s natural gas boom<p>The fracking industry has been an energy success story: Natural gas prices have decreased as <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/080814/how-fracking-affects-natural-gas-prices.asp">fracking has skyrocketed</a>, and natural gas now <a href="http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/">produces more</a> electricity than coal does, which has resulted in improved air quality. The first states to begin unconventional natural gas development with fracking have cited potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tale-of-two-oil-and-gas-boomtowns-a-boost-to-the-economy-a-tricky-landing-59502">economic, energy and community benefits</a>.</p>
<p>Yet early on, communities where fracking spread raised doubts. Nearby residents <a href="https://pennsylvaniaallianceforcleanwaterandair.wordpress.com/the-list/">reported</a> a variety of common symptoms and sources of stress. Public health professionals trumpeted their concerns, and epidemiologists launched <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/health/20150116_Pa__studies_link_fracking_with_health_problems.html">health studies</a> of the industry. States like Pennsylvania, where <a href="http://www.depreportingservices.state.pa.us/ReportServer/Pages/ReportViewer.aspx?/Oil_Gas/Spud_External_Data">almost 10,000</a> wells <a href="http://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/drilling/">have been drilled</a> since 2005, continued development. But other states, including Maryland and New York, have not permitted drilling because of the potential for environmental and health impacts.</p>
<p>Tensions between economic development, energy policy and environmental and health concerns are common in public health’s history. Often, economic and energy development trump environmental and health concerns, leaving public health playing “catch-up.”</p>
<p>Indeed, only recently have rigorous health studies on the impact of unconventional natural gas development on health been completed. We have published three studies, which evaluated <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26426945">birth outcomes</a>, <a href="http://archinte.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=2534153">asthma exacerbations</a> and <a href="http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/EHP281">symptoms</a>, including nasal and sinus, fatigue and migraine headache symptoms. These, together <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0126425">with</a> <a href="http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/1307732/">other studies</a>, form a growing body of evidence that unconventional natural gas development is having detrimental effects on health. Not unexpectedly, the oil and gas industry has countered our findings with pointed criticism.</p>
<h2>Which exposures and health outcomes to study?</h2>
<p>The process of fracking involves vertical and horizontal drilling, often for more than 10,000 feet below the surface, followed by the injection of millions of gallons of water, chemicals and sand at high pressures. The liquids create fissures that release the natural gas in the shale rock.</p>
<p>As fracking became commercially viable, oil and gas drilling companies entered communities with shale gas resources, which can have a number of local effects. Communities near fracking operations can experience <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es404621d">noise, light, vibration and truck traffic</a>, as well as <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24620400">air</a>, <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24606408">water</a> and <a href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70043410">soil</a> pollution. The rapid development of the industry can also lead to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953616300028">social disruption</a>, <a href="http://www.rural.palegislature.us/documents/reports/Marcellus-Report-6-Crime%20.pdf">higher crime rates</a> and anxiety. </p>
<p>These vary during the different phases of well development and have different scales of impact: Vibration may affect only people very close to wells, whereas stress from, for example, concerns about possible water contamination may have a wider reach. Other sources of stress can be an influx of temporary workers, seeing industrial development in what used to be a rural area, heavy truck traffic and concerns about declining home prices.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134801/original/image-20160819-30409-fzxex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A study found higher rates of asthma for people who lived near bigger or a larger number of unconventional gas wells.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">asthma via www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have now completed several health studies in partnership with the Geisinger Health System, which provides primary care to over 450,000 patients in Pennsylvania, including many residing in fracking areas. Geisinger has used an electronic health record system since 2001, allowing us to get detailed health data from all patient encounters, including diagnoses, tests, procedures, medications and other treatments during the same time frame as fracking developed.</p>
<p>For our first electronic health record-based studies, we selected adverse birth outcomes and asthma exacerbations. These are important, are common, have short latencies and are conditions patients seek care for, so they are thus well-documented in the electronic health record. </p>
<p>We studied over 8,000 mother-child pairs and 35,000 asthma patients. In our symptom study, we obtained questionnaires from 7,847 patients about nasal, sinus and other health symptoms. Because symptoms are subjective, they are not well-captured by an electronic health record and are better ascertained by questionnaire. </p>
<p>In all studies, we assigned patients measures of unconventional natural gas development activity. These were calculated using distance from the patient’s home to the well, well depth and production, and dates and duration of the different phases. </p>
<h2>Our findings and how confident we are in them</h2>
<p>In the birth outcome study, we found increased odds of preterm birth and suggestive evidence for reduced birth weight among women with higher unconventional natural gas development activity (those closer to more and bigger unconventional wells), compared with women with lower unconventional natural gas development activity during pregnancy.</p>
<p>In the asthma study, we found increased odds among asthma patients of asthma hospitalizations, emergency department visits and a medication used for mild asthma attacks with higher unconventional natural gas development activity, compared to those with lower activity. Finally, in our study of symptoms, we found patients with higher unconventional natural gas development activity had higher odds of nasal and sinus, migraine headache and fatigue symptoms compared to those with lower activity. In each analysis, we controlled for other risk factors for the outcome, including smoking, obesity, and comorbid conditions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134800/original/image-20160819-30396-7fvygr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flaring at a fracked well in northwestern Pennsylvania. One potential cause of health problems, such as asthma, in communities with fracking is higher rates of air pollution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wcn247/8202389419/in/album-72157646940158178/">wcn247/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Psychosocial stress, exposure to air pollution including truck traffic, sleep disruption and changes to socioeconomic status are all biologically plausible pathways for unconventional natural gas development to affect health. We hypothesize that stress and air pollution are the two primary pathways, but in our studies, we cannot yet determine which are responsible for the associations we observed.</p>
<p>As epidemiologists, our data can rarely prove that an exposure caused a health outcome. We do, however, perform additional analyses to test if our findings are robust and eliminate the possibility that another factor we did not include was the actual cause. </p>
<p>In our studies, we looked at differences by county to understand whether there were just differences in the people who live in counties with and without fracking. And we repeated our studies with other health outcomes we would not expect to be affected by the fracking industry. In no analyses did we find results that suggested to us that our primary findings were likely to be biased, which gives us confidence in our results.</p>
<p>Other research groups have published on <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0126425">pregnancy and birth outcomes</a> and <a href="http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/1307732/">symptoms</a>, and the evidence suggests that the fracking industry may be affecting health in a range of ways. Over time, the body of evidence has gotten clearer, more consistent and concerning. However, we would not expect all studies to exactly agree, because, for example, the drilling practices, underlying health conditions and other factors likely differ in different study areas.</p>
<h2>How has the industry responded?</h2>
<p>Often the industry states that unconventional natural gas development has improved air quality. When describing emissions for the entire United States, this may be true. However, such statements ignore studies that suggest fracking has worsened local air quality in areas undergoing unconventional natural gas development.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://energyindepth.org/marcellus/pa-health-report-destroys-activist-fracking-asthma-study-conclusion/">common retort</a> by the industry is that <a href="http://ocw.jhsph.edu/courses/FundEpi/PDFs/Lecture5.pdf">rates</a> of the health outcome studied – whether it’s asthma or preterm birth – are lower in fracking areas than in areas without fracking, or that the rate of the outcome is decreasing over time. </p>
<p>A study of increases or decreases in rates of a disease across years, calculated for groups of people, is called an ecologic study. Ecologic studies are less informative than studies with data on individual people because relationships can exist at the group level that do not exist among individuals. This is called the <a href="https://www.reference.com/science/examples-ecological-fallacy-5aa10bca0e4cdf9f">ecologic fallacy</a>. <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK201995/">For example</a>, ecologic studies show a negative association between county-level average radon levels and lung cancer rates, but studies of individuals show strong positive associations between exposure to radon gas and lung cancer.</p>
<p>One reason we used individual-level data in our peer-reviewed studies was to avoid the problem of the ecologic fallacy. So the rates highlighted by industry do not provide any evidence that our findings are invalid. </p>
<p>It’s worth noting that the fracking industry’s practices have improved. One example is the <a href="http://www.post-gazette.com/local/north/2012/02/02/Flares-from-Marcellus-Shale-wells-attracting-plenty-of-attention/stories/201202020596">flaring of wells</a>, which is a source of air, noise and light pollution, and has decreased dramatically in recent years. Drilling has also substantially slowed because of the dramatic decline in natural gas prices.</p>
<h2>What to consider for the future</h2>
<p>All energy choices have positive and negative aspects. Maryland in particular has a decision to make, as its <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/243625-maryland-bans-fracking">moratorium on fracking</a> ends in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/a-new-fracking-fight-is-brewing-in-maryland/2016/06/24/d561aece-3a1f-11e6-8f7c-d4c723a2becb_story.html">October 2017</a>. </p>
<p>We must monitor the industry with ongoing health studies and perform more detailed exposure measurements by, for example, measuring noise and air pollution levels. If we understand why we are seeing associations between the fracking industry and health problems, then we can better inform patients and policymakers. </p>
<p>In the meantime, we would advise careful deliberation about future decisions about the industry to balance energy needs with environmental and public health considerations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara G. Rasmussen receives funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian S. Schwartz receives research or education funding from the National Institutes of Health, the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, and the Department of Energy. Dr. Schwartz is a Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute. The details of that relationship are in his profile.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joan A Casey receives funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. </span></em></p>Three studies find higher rate of health issues for people who live near large or many fracked natural gas well sites.Sara G. Rasmussen, Ph.D. Candidate in Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins UniversityBrian S. Schwartz, Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins UniversityJoan A. Casey, Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholar, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/529632016-01-17T19:18:03Z2016-01-17T19:18:03ZHeading north: how the export boom is shaking up Australia’s gas market<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108244/original/image-20160115-2349-1su0v1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An LNG carrier leaves Darwin.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/40132991@N07/7501108978/">Ken Hodge/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You might have missed it, but last month something unusual happened in Australia’s eastern gas market. Gas in a major pipeline that normally flows from north to south started flowing in the opposite direction for the first time. </p>
<p>This seemingly small change reflects big upheavals in Australia’s gas market as exports expand significantly. </p>
<p>At Gladstone, Queensland, coal seam gas companies have invested around A$80 billion in equipment to chill gas to -160°C and convert it to liquefied natural gas (LNG). This liquefied gas is then loaded onto ships and sold to overseas customers. Exports are well underway with over 80 70,000-tonne LNG cargoes loaded in 2015. </p>
<p>As shown in the following chart, eventually three times as much gas will be exported from Queensland in the form of LNG each year as has historically been used in all of eastern Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107999/original/image-20160113-10414-jrgqe1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gas demand forecast for eastern Australia.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The gas vacuum</h2>
<p>In 2012, the head of a major Australian gas retailer famously referred to the planned Queensland coal seam gas export projects as <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/australia-gas-idUSL4E8G79L620120516">“a giant vacuum cleaner for the East Coast gas market”</a>. This vacuum has now been switched on – and it’s sweeping up gas not just from coal seam gas producers, but conventional gas producers too. </p>
<p>Domestic gas consumers – renters, homeowners, commercial building managers and industry – were warned they would see <a href="http://www.energy.unimelb.edu.au/switching-gas-%E2%80%93-examination-declining-gas-demand-eastern-australia">gas prices rise</a> as the attractive Asian market opened up for previously landlocked eastern Australian gas. </p>
<p>Producers such as British Gas, Conoco Phillips, Origin and Santos pioneered coal seam gas technology to liquefy gas liquefaction-and-export as a way to monetise their vast resources in Queensland and New South Wales. </p>
<p>A second goal was gas producers’ long-held dream of <a href="https://www.santos.com/media/1880/030311_march_2011_santos_investor_presentation_1.pdf">linking eastern Australian domestic gas to higher overseas prices</a>. Until recently, the people and businesses of eastern Australia enjoyed some of the cheapest gas in the developed world. <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-cold-in-my-house-and-the-price-of-gas-is-going-up-what-can-i-do-44824">Those days are gone</a>. </p>
<p>Producers have successfully converted coal seam gas to LNG, gas prices are climbing, and long-term industrial gas customers are struggling to <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/regulated-infrastructure/energy/east-coast-gas-inquiry-2015">agree acceptable commercial terms</a> with a limited number of gas suppliers.</p>
<h2>Unexpected winners</h2>
<p>An intriguing side-effect of this new coal seam gas export industry are the benefits flowing to companies such as Esso Australia and BHP Billiton that produce gas from conventional sources and, at this time, have no direct role in Australian coal seam gas. </p>
<p>Of course these conventional gas producers benefit as wholesale gas prices rise. But there are other, possibly even more profitable, effects.</p>
<p>From last month, the gas filling the new LNG plants wasn’t just coal seam gas. Coal seam gas companies are finding it difficult to cost-effectively produce their own gas and meet export contracts. The reasons include <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/metgasco-accepts-25m-compensation-to-end-csg-at-bentley-in-nsw-northern-rivers-20151215-glolpi.html">local landholders and communities</a>, the <a href="http://ppo.com.au/news/queensland_flooding_delays_csg_operations/54040">weather</a>, and/or challenging geology and complex drilling techniques. </p>
<p>To meet these contracts, gas from conventional oil and gas operations such as at Moomba (northeastern South Australia) and the Bass Strait (offshore southern Victoria) is now travelling north. </p>
<p>On December 14, for the first time in its 40-year history, the Moomba-to-Sydney gas pipeline began to <a href="http://www.gasbb.com.au">run in reverse</a>. Last September, pipeline operators <a href="http://apa.com.au/our-business/energy-infrastructure/new-south-wales.aspx">APA Group</a> completed minor modifications to allow reverse flow. A name change to Sydney-to-Moomba pipeline may now be in order!</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108113/original/image-20160114-2365-1aooxxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eastern Australia gas infrastructure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Energy Market Operator</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This remarkable gas market transformation means companies such as Esso and BHP Billiton are enjoying benefits from the export boom beyond just increased gas prices. </p>
<p>Traditionally, conventional gas production facilities were under-used in summer when domestic gas demand was low. Now summer sales are up as gas flows north to Queensland. </p>
<p>Beyond that, an even more significant cash benefit results from increased production of the valuable liquids found alongside gas: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_petroleum_gas">LPG</a> (liquefied petroleum gas) and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural-gas_condensate">condensate</a>. These co-products, often more valuable than the gas itself, have had to lie dormant in the ground until this new gas market appeared.</p>
<h2>Rising costs for domestic gas users</h2>
<p>Clearly, eastern Australian domestic gas users see something wrong with this success story. They must now compete on price with gas exporters who have an overriding need to fill long-term export contracts. </p>
<p>Even traditional domestic gas retailers such as <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/agl-to-supply-gas-to-gladstone-lng/news-story/6d895c74f7707357f9b2d535c5d507b9">AGL have decided to sell gas to the exporters</a>. Thanks to the interlinkages of our gas market, no eastern Australian gas consumer will be left unaffected. </p>
<p>Some will find it pays to fuel-switch to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cheapest-way-to-heat-your-home-with-renewable-energy-just-flick-a-switch-47087">other energy sources</a>, potentially driving <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-crash-in-gas-use-is-more-likely-than-the-forecast-shortage-36764">a crash in domestic gas use</a>.</p>
<h2>How not to make LNG</h2>
<p>Gas flowing north is new evidence that the economic challenges for the direct players in this new industry are mounting. Around the world over the last 40 years, LNG export projects were built where four criteria could be met: the gas destined for conversion to LNG must be easy to produce, come with valuable liquid co-products (such as LPG), have no viable domestic market, and require little in the way of pipeline transport prior to conversion. </p>
<p>Western Australia’s Northwest Shelf project is one example where these criteria were met and investors profited. On the other hand in Queensland, exporting coal seam gas started with one strike against it: coal seams produce no valuable liquid co-products. Never mind that, the project developers hoped to score highly with some of the other success criteria. </p>
<p>Strike two is the learning that coal seam gas isn’t <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-23/knitting-nannas-against-gas-and-greed-not-hanging-up-needles/7050678">easy</a> nor cheap to produce. As a result, expensive gas must be drawn from 3,000 kilometres away. This is new evidence that the Gladstone LNG projects face ongoing economic challenges to add to past <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/gas/queenslands-boomtime-lng-scheme-faces-todays-harsh-reality-20151223-gltvb0">billion-dollar write-downs</a>.</p>
<p>The biggest winners from eastern Australian coal seam gas may turn out to be those gas producers that opted to play a role – but kept a safe distance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52963/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Forcey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Coal seam gas companies have invested billions of dollars to export their products overseas. But is their investment paying off?Tim Forcey, Energy Advisor, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/440472015-06-30T13:50:11Z2015-06-30T13:50:11ZLancashire fracking refusals may be no red light to the industry – here’s why<p>Big news from Lancashire in north England: the county council has rejected two planning applications to develop shale gas sites in recent days, the first in four years. Lancashire councillors’ decisions to reject planning applications by Cuadrilla at <a href="http://www.cityam.com/218887/cuadrilla-fails-first-lancashire-fracking-site-bid">Roseacre Wood</a> (June 25) and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/plans-to-start-fracking-in-lancashire-rejected-by-local-councillors-10352527.html">Little Plumpton</a> (June 29) against the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-33313084">conditional</a> approval of planning officers is a major blow for the industry. For reasons I will outline, though, it may not yet to lead to a national defeat. </p>
<p>The decision is unlikely to resolve any of the bigger and still outstanding public health issues surrounding unconventional gas extraction (as well as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14432401">fracked shale gas</a>, this also includes <a href="http://serc.carleton.edu/research_education/cretaceous/coalbed.html">coal-bed methane</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26921145">underground coal gasification</a>). When it comes to the possible hazards, the scientific, regulatory and legal knowledge and opinion are both conflicting and conflicted. Such fears have led many communities, including a number of those in the relevant parts of Lancashire, to oppose fracking applications in their area.</p>
<h2>Fracking: the debate</h2>
<p>There is a <a href="http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/fracking-makes-climate-change-worse-not-better-141015.htm">growing scientific consensus</a> that unconventional gas extraction in all its forms will contribute significantly to global climate change, which obviously has long-term public health effects. It <a href="http://www.abc-clio.com/Praeger/product.aspx?pc=A4428C">might also</a> cause water and air pollution, though industry voices <a href="http://www.oilgasmonitor.com/environmental-groups-lost-war-fracking/7292/">disagree</a>. </p>
<p>There <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/283837/Seismic_v3.pdf">are also fears</a> about subsidence in coal-mining areas with a history of abandoned seams, and earthquakes, both of which <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/283837/Seismic_v3.pdf">have been</a> played down by the government. Another concern is around <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-29944212">mental health and well-being</a>. </p>
<p>It doesn’t help that research on unconventional gas extraction <a href="http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/features/fracking-research-playing-with-fire/2007351.fullarticle">has been</a> heavily conflicted and fraught with evidence of substantial conflicts of interest in the US. Environmental groups and journalists <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/09/fracking-big-gas-university-research">have even</a> coined the term “frackademia” to refer to universities winning contracts to undertake research for the companies involved. </p>
<p>The UK government has meanwhile insisted that the industry <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/14/uk-defeats-european-bid-fracking-regulations">will be</a> well regulated and that industry practice will be good. This is contrary to <a href="http://www.bristol.ac.uk/law/people/joanne-e-hawkins/pub/35576171">some research voices</a>, while other governments have taken a very different view, with bans in <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/german-cabinet-approves-anti-fracking-draft-law-1427896555">Germany</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24489986">France</a>. </p>
<p>For their part, <a href="http://www.ineos.com/articles/inch-issue-4-2013/material-gain/">developers argue</a> that unconventional gas extraction will be vital to meet our energy needs, at least in the medium term, as well as supplying feedstocks for the chemical industry and creating many jobs and prosperity for communities. </p>
<h2>Public health to the margins</h2>
<p>When it comes to developing policy for the industry, communities and activists argue that public-health considerations have been marginalised. The 2012 <a href="http://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/shale-gas-extraction-in-the-uk">Royal Society report</a> on unconventional gas extraction prepared by engineers and geologists contained no public-health experts in its working group and made minimal in-depth mention of public-health issues either. </p>
<p>A Scottish-government <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0045/00456579.pdf">expert report</a> published last year drew on this 2012 report and neither contained any experts on public health nor any independent experts on regulation or industry practice. Neither report <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3339470/pdf/ehp.1104594.pdf">learned from</a> US failures to include public-health professionals either. </p>
<p>When agencies like <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/329744/PHE-CRCE-002_for_website_protected.pdf">Public Health England</a> have reported on the prospects for unconventional gas extraction, they have tended to reflect the favourable assessments of these other bodies – as well as those of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-shale-gas-and-hydraulic-fracturing-fracking">UK government itself</a>. The Public Health England report contained nothing on the wider public-health impacts via global climate change; nothing on socio-economic impacts, which have important health consequences; and nothing on work environments. These are serious gaps that need to be filled in. </p>
<p>American public-health professionals with practical experience of fracking <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g2728">said that</a> claims in the report that the public-health problems related to the industry in the US such as poor regulation and bad industry practice would not apply in the UK were a “leap of faith unsubstantiated by scientific evidence”. They pointed out that the conclusions ignored the “inherent industry risks whatever regulation applies (casing failures, cement failures, waste and water spillage)” and argued the report overlooked the <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g2728.long">evidence about</a> extra risks in heavily populated areas. </p>
<h2>Conflicting interests</h2>
<p>In this climate, decision-makers are being encouraged to turn a blind eye to the potential public-health issues. In Lancashire, for instance, newspaper reports suggest that the councillors were <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lancashire-councillors-prevented-from-blocking-proposals-for-uks-first-fracking-site-says-council-member-10346293.html?origin=internalSearch">coming under pressure</a> linked to the legal ramifications of approving and not approving the applications. </p>
<p>The impending <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32691589">Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership</a> could make such considerations <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/what-is-ttip-and-six-reasons-why-the-answer-should-scare-you-9779688.html">even more significant</a>, if companies get the right to challenge local authorities or even governments over fracking bans. In this arena, public health risks being subordinated to company profits. Some planners have also suggested to me that local councils may in future not be able to consider any health factors in these decisions because they will be dealt with separately by regulatory agencies. </p>
<p>One other issue is also worth mentioning. The environmental statements that have to be included in all planning applications can contain narrow assessments of the potential health impacts of unconventional gas extraction. They ought to fully inform the planners about all the risks and benefits of the proposal. </p>
<p>They <a href="http://www.abc-clio.com/Praeger/product.aspx?pc=A4428C">are not</a> required to consider global climate-change issues, for instance, and have often focused just on noise and traffic. The quality and scope of the health-impact assessments in the US has varied a great deal – from the <a href="http://www.garfield-county.com/public-health/documents/1%20%20%20Complete%20HIA%20without%20Appendix%20D.pdf">detailed and rigorous</a> to the <a href="http://www.apha.org/advocacy/policy/policysearch/default.htm?id=1439">superficial</a>. The assessments are also conducted by consultants who are mostly paid for by either interested companies or local authorities, which rarely if ever reach conclusions that conflict with the interests of who is paying. Community groups can rarely afford to pay for such reports. </p>
<p>Notwithstanding the Lancashire decisions, the challenge now facing the UK remains to ensure an independent, thorough, transparent and rigorous public-health impact assessment of unconventional gas extraction. This has to be conducted at national level, free of industry and commercial influences and capable of convincing the public of its lack of bias. </p>
<p>It <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969715000078">should not</a> rely on “theoretical solutions” but should draw on the best empirical evidence available, while acknowledging the potential shortcomings of the <a href="http://www.bristol.ac.uk/law/people/joanne-e-hawkins/pub/35576171">UK’s regulatory system</a>. For many, it should rely on the <a href="http://www.sehn.org/precaution.html">precautionary principle</a> against going ahead while there are uncertainties. That is arguably the only way to protect public health.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Watterson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Those against shale gas extraction have scored a couple of wins in the north-west of England, but industry-government-researcher collusion may yet win the day.Andrew Watterson, Chair in Health Effectiveness, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.