tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/university-completion-14509/articlesUniversity completion – The Conversation2017-07-25T01:16:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/798932017-07-25T01:16:33Z2017-07-25T01:16:33ZDo challenges make school seem impossible or worthwhile?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179494/original/file-20170724-11166-djnp45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When school gets tough, do you think it's worthwhile? Or time to give up?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/studying-girl-440842600?src=enkWg7yoM312gbpnGxyhXw-1-50">Pavlin Plamenov Petkov/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Did you get where you intended to in life? Are you as healthy, wealthy and wise as you want to be? If not, perhaps the problem is a lack of motivation.</p>
<p>Some studies suggest that motivation – rather than ability or skill – is the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/pathways-to-success-through-identity-based-motivation-9780195341461">best predictor of educational and professional attainment</a>.</p>
<p>But what do we actually mean by motivation? It seems that wherever one turns, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/A_Theory_of_Human_Motivation.html?id=nvnsAgAAQBAJ">experts</a> have <a href="http://gumptionade.com/">new</a> <a href="http://www.hayhouse.com/the-motivation-manifesto-hardcover">advice</a> on <a href="http://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/301674/drive-by-daniel-h-pink/9781594484803">how to be motivated</a>. </p>
<p>As researchers interested in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/mot0000055">motivation and educational success</a>, we wondered: Is motivation just one thing, or are there many different kinds of motivation? Is motivation about how people respond to challenges or is it also about how people respond to ease? Understanding these different facets of motivation can help students succeed.</p>
<h2>Why do people need motivation?</h2>
<p>People think of themselves and others as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229294">having some essence</a> – some fixed or at least stable core. They tend to believe that this sense of “me” defines who they are, who they might become and how they’re likely to act over time.</p>
<p>If people actually had this sort of fixed “essence” (and always acted in ways that fit that essence), the idea of motivation wouldn’t be necessary. People wouldn’t need to be motivated to do something; they would simply do it because it’s part of their identity.</p>
<p>But motivation is necessary. In part, that’s because what people believe to be true of themselves in one situation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/sipr.12030">doesn’t necessarily predict</a> what they’ll do in another situation. Wanting to be an “A” student doesn’t mean that you’ll pay attention to the teacher right now instead of passing notes to a friend.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179490/original/file-20170724-28293-4qvxgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Even someone who wants to succeed in school may decide it’s more important in the moment to develop friendships than focus in class.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-diverse-high-school-students-studying-651891676">Rawpixel/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>While this seemingly contradictory behavior might seem to be a human design flaw, it’s actually a feature: Thinking (including thinking about who you are) is sensitively attuned to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcps.2009.06.001">what individual situations have to offer</a>. After all, right now it might be more important to keep up a friendship than to worry about something like next week’s test.</p>
<h2>Too easy to matter? Too hard to bother?</h2>
<p>Everyday life involves experiences that are easy and those that are difficult. How do these challenges (or lack of challenges) impact motivation? Research tells us that what matters is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2008.02.014">what people think ease and difficulty mean for them</a>.</p>
<p>Both easy and difficult experiences can be demotivating. If homework feels easy, for instance, a student might think: “This is stupid. I’m not going to do this.” When something feels too easy, it can mean that the task is “beneath me” or “just not worth my time.”</p>
<p>On the other hand, if the homework feels difficult that same student could think: “This is too hard for me. I’m just not a math person.” Or “People like me can’t do this.” When something feels too difficult, it can mean that success in that task is unlikely and that “I” or “we” aren’t cut out for it.</p>
<p>Both perspectives are likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/sipr.12030">undermine motivation</a>. Why waste your time on things that are trivial or impossible? Better to quit and move on to something else.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179495/original/file-20170724-6656-1n5opta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">In sports, ‘no pain, no gain’ is a common way to look at adversity. The same is not always true in academics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/man-wearing-white-long-sleeve-shirt-holding-black-nike-ball-488610/">Stocksnap</a></span>
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<p>At the same time, experiencing ease or difficulty while working on a task can also be motivating. When something feels easy, it can mean that success is possible and when something feels difficult, it can mean that success is worthwhile (“no pain, no gain”). In this case, homework that feels easy implies: “I can do this!” Homework that feels difficult implies: “This is valuable!”</p>
<p>Naturally, the demotivating frames of mind can get in the way of success. In our research, we asked over 1,000 adults of various ages, genders and backgrounds their ideas about what ease and difficulty imply. We then asked about 200 of them to perform a complicated cognitive task in which some items were relatively easy to solve and others were quite difficult. We found that the people who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/mot0000055">performed better on the task</a> were the ones who felt that difficult does not mean impossible and that easy does not mean trivial.</p>
<h2>How students interpret difficulty matters</h2>
<p>A growing number of studies show that how students perceive difficulty can significantly influence their performance in school.</p>
<p>In these studies, students are randomly divided into two groups. One group reads sentences implying that difficulty is a sign of importance. The other group reads sentences implying that difficulty is a sign of low odds of success. Students in the first kind of group <a href="http://guilfordjournals.com/doi/abs/10.1521/soco.2015.33.2.1">solve more problems</a>, <a href="http://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/v43/acr_vol43_1019297.pdf">write better essays</a> and <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/assets/sites/782/docs/Aeleni_Lewis_Oyserman_2016.pdf">describe themselves as more</a> <a href="http://guilfordjournals.com/doi/abs/10.1521/soco.2015.33.2.1">focused on school</a> than students in the second kind of group. </p>
<p>In short, how students interpret their everyday difficulties with school matters.</p>
<h2>Is there a pattern?</h2>
<p>Is there a way to predict how students might interpret difficulty and ease?</p>
<p>In the same 1,000-person set of studies, we asked people to rate how much they agreed or disagreed with four interpretations of what ease and difficulty might imply: easy means trivial, difficult means impossible, easy means possible and difficult means worthwhile. We found that people are more inclined to interpret their experiences in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/mot0000055">ways that are motivating rather than demotivating</a>. </p>
<p>However, people who did believe that easy things are trivial were likely to also believe that difficult things are impossible. Though not the majority, they make up a subset of people who, without assistance, may tend to work too little and quit too soon.</p>
<p>Who are these people?</p>
<p>Demographically speaking, in our study, they tended to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/mot0000055">men with low income</a>. We found some evidence that among adults (primarily white Americans in our samples), low income was associated with higher agreement that when things get difficult, they may be impossible, and one should turn one’s attention elsewhere. Interpreting ease as triviality is a bit gendered: men are somewhat more likely than women to believe that easy things aren’t worth their time.</p>
<p><iframe id="jxIUZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jxIUZ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>So what can we do?</h2>
<p>If difficulty (and even ease) can be interpreted in such a demotivating way, is there some way to change this interpretation? </p>
<p>Researchers have designed programs that help students see difficulty with schoolwork as a signal of importance – something of value to be engaged with rather than something impossible to be avoided. One such intervention yielded <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.91.1.188">improved academic outcomes</a> at least two full school years later.</p>
<p>There are also ways that teachers can (carefully) message that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2332858416664714">schoolwork is hard because it’s valuable</a>. Though heavy-handedly telling students what to believe <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2332858416664714">will often result in them rejecting or disbelieving the message</a>, teachers can instead give students the chance to argue the point themselves: If the assumption is that difficulty signals impossibility, ask your students to question that assumption and argue against it.</p>
<p>Teachers can also give students the chance to practice interpreting difficulty as importance. This can be something as simple as solving a puzzle that at first seems impossible. With such practice, this interpretation becomes more accessible when students experience difficulty with higher stakes.</p>
<p>No one starts life knowing how to walk, tie shoelaces or ride a bike. The failures along the way – and even the falls, scrapes and bruises – can reinforce the value of the task at hand.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79893/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daphna Oyserman receives funding from the Department of Education (Institute for Educational Studies, Investing in Innovation). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A high school science test, a Psych 101 course, long job applications: Sometimes it’s hard to be motivated to succeed. As it turns out, how you respond to difficulty and ease can make all the difference.Daphna Oyserman, Professor of Psychology and Education, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesOliver Fisher, Ph.D. Candidate, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/753852017-04-02T19:31:03Z2017-04-02T19:31:03ZShould university funding be tied to student performance?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163233/original/image-20170330-30342-1ambouh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How do we measure success?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Government funding for Australian universities could soon be based more on how students perform - including academic results, whether they complete uni and get a job – and less on the number of students universities manage to enrol. </p>
<p>So why is this change likely? </p>
<p>There are concerns that while <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-spending-on-education-the-winners-and-losers-70264">more money is being spent on higher education</a>, retention rates <a href="http://www.latrobe.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/784028/La-Trobe-NPP-Re-recruitment-Research-Report-24-February-2017.pdf">either haven’t improved or have decreased</a> in some instances, and students are struggling to find <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/policy/education/graduates-lose-out-in-salary-slide-graduate-careers-australia-20150212-13dffx?login_token=M9i5oobVfM0ekIOWwrCKnHgPjvvWqGSFIaEqxuK16aH2yux6WUo8k3y45rR9tM2ZJ_Kv0CN6xcugWLFKSPu9fQ&expiry=1490831664&single_use_token=KRseIQt5i19STHl1FJUnWVQh2Aqe2WNOtqC457SNES3W12w4xh0kRqi-_G3WZAB21NkojoIJ9W3wBZ9bHkc3cg">well-paid jobs</a> post graduation – or jobs at all. </p>
<p>These issues are likely to translate into more performance-based funding.</p>
<p>Governments want universities to enrol students who will graduate, obtain work and serve the national interest. They also want prospective students to know their chances of success before choosing a course and institution. Tying public funding directly to outcomes is designed to increase efficiency and transparency. </p>
<h2>Other countries already doing this</h2>
<p>At least 35 US states have introduced some type of performance funding for universities. This ranges from small bonuses to larger incentives of around <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Performance_Funding_for_Higher_Education.html?id=ZVfzDAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false">90%</a> of state funding. As state budgets tighten, governments (and private donors) want to see real outcomes for their money. </p>
<p>In the UK, the government is rolling out the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/teaching-excellence-framework-18979">Teaching Excellence Framework</a>, which aims to reward universities that demonstrate they are providing excellent teaching to students by allowing institutions to raise their fees, in line with inflation. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.hefce.ac.uk/lt/tef/">framework</a> will be based on student retention, employability metrics, and student satisfaction ratings. </p>
<p>Universities will only be able to charge maximum tuition fees if they record satisfactory achievement against these standards.</p>
<h2>This is already happening in some areas of Australian HE</h2>
<p>Performance funding exists only in some areas of higher education in Australia. </p>
<p>PhD completions count towards the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/research-block-grants-new-arrangements-allocation-calculation-methodology">research block grant</a> funding of each university. The Australian government allocates nearly A$2 billion annually to universities through this fund, to help support infrastructure and other costs of research. </p>
<p>Employability and completion rates are also major components of the new <a href="http://www.nigelscullion.com/media+hub/Tailored+support+for+Indigenous+university+students">Indigenous Student Success</a> fund, which supports scholarships, mentoring and tutoring. </p>
<p>In increasing the proportion of funding tied to success and completion rates, the <a href="http://www.nigelscullion.com/media+hub/Tailored+support+for+Indigenous+university+students">government noted</a> that Indigenous students were 2.5 times more likely than other students to drop out in their first year of university.</p>
<p>But Education Minister Simon Birmingham has signalled there will be further reform. </p>
<p>The higher education standards panel is <a href="http://www.senatorbirmingham.com.au/Latest-News/ID/3339/Education-Minister-urges-uni-students-to-research-options-as-completion-rates-dip">reviewing</a> retention and completions “to consider what further reforms are required to help lift student success”.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.qilt.edu.au/">Quality Indicators of Learning and Teaching</a> have also been developed to provide more information on university outcomes and help inform the enrolment decisions of students. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.senatorbirmingham.com.au/Media-Centre/Media-Releases/ID/3339/Education-Minister-urges-uni-students-to-research-options-as-completion-rates-dip">minister</a> regularly emphasises the need for the Australian government to reward completions, including through funding.</p>
<p>Although there are some programs in place, performance based funding in Australia could expand in many ways. </p>
<p>The government has released indicators for university attrition rates, completions, and graduate outcomes. All of these can be used to allocate funds. However, performance based funding can become a significant risk to students, especially in terms of equity. </p>
<h2>Attrition rates are hard to measure</h2>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163234/original/image-20170330-30342-n7p32z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163234/original/image-20170330-30342-n7p32z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163234/original/image-20170330-30342-n7p32z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163234/original/image-20170330-30342-n7p32z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163234/original/image-20170330-30342-n7p32z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163234/original/image-20170330-30342-n7p32z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163234/original/image-20170330-30342-n7p32z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Some students take longer to graduate than others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
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<p>Attrition rates are arguably <a href="http://www.latrobe.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/784028/La-Trobe-NPP-Re-recruitment-Research-Report-24-February-2017.pdf">overstated</a>. Many students who withdraw from university <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-typical-university-student-is-no-longer-18-middle-class-and-on-campus-we-need-to-change-thinking-on-drop-outs-73509">simply return after a year</a> and are likely to have taken a formal leave of absence. These students are still counted as part of the university’s attrition rate. </p>
<p>Students who transfer between universities are also counted within the institutional attrition rate. Any “crisis” of attrition is therefore exaggerated.</p>
<h2>Students’ background a big influence</h2>
<p>With both retention and completion rates, a major determinant of outcomes is the type of students who are enrolled. </p>
<p>Group of Eight universities usually enrol the most academically prepared students, which is reflected in their high retention and completion rates. </p>
<p>Regional universities typically have <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-students-are-most-likely-to-drop-out-of-university-56276">lower retention</a> and completion rates because they enrol less prepared students. </p>
<p>Simply rewarding the universities that enrol the most prepared students would not capture institutional performance. </p>
<h2>Employability also hard to measure</h2>
<p>Measuring graduate outcomes is also problematic. Some groups of students have relatively <a href="http://research.acer.edu.au/rd_highereducation/22/">poor</a> graduate outcomes, such as those with a disability or non-English speaking background. </p>
<p>But these outcomes are often a reflection of employer <a href="https://works.bepress.com/rhasmath/13/">discrimination</a> and unconscious bias rather than university performance.</p>
<p>Another risk in performance-based funding is narrowed entry pathways, where the only students allowed to enrol are those most likely to succeed.</p>
<p>This effect can reproduce disadvantage, and block regional, mature age, or Indigenous students, those from low socio-economic status (SES) or non-English speaking background students, and those with a disability. </p>
<p>This issue has emerged in some US states, where there has been a <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/613777/pdf">decline</a> in financially disadvantaged student numbers and a <a href="https://www.bookdepository.com/Outcomes-Based-Funding-Race-Higher-Education-2017-Tiffany-Jones/9783319494357">decrease</a> in African-American and Latino entrants to some universities.</p>
<h2>Rewarding outcomes or performance?</h2>
<p>Rewarding outcomes is a very different concept from rewarding performance, and would likely reproduce inequality. To measure actual performance, we would need to control for the student population and context, and to measure changes over time. </p>
<p>In Ohio, Tennessee, and Indiana, completions by <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Performance_Funding_for_Higher_Education.html?id=ZVfzDAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false">“at risk”</a> students are weighted higher.</p>
<p>The UK government is now two years into a five-year program to implement the Teaching Excellence Framework. Consultation and technical <a href="http://www.hefce.ac.uk/lt/tef/">papers</a> are highlighting similar issues with age, ethnicity, disability and location of institutions. Universities will be benchmarked according to the demographics and academic preparedness of their student populations. </p>
<h2>Problems to address</h2>
<p>How should we then measure employment outcomes, for example, of regional universities where local unemployment rates may be higher?</p>
<p>What time frame do we measure performance in? The UK government has agreed to consider institutional results averaged over a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/557140/Teaching_Excellence_Framework_-_Technical_Con_Response.pdf">three-year period</a>. </p>
<p>Since attrition and graduate outcomes are lagging indicators, there could be a significant delay between performance improvement and reward funding. </p>
<p>Other <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Performance_Funding_for_Higher_Education.html?id=ZVfzDAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false">unintended consequences</a> exist in the US, including higher compliance costs and a perceived weakening of academic standards.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Performance_Funding_for_Higher_Education.html?id=ZVfzDAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false">evidence</a> from the US suggests little overall benefit has been made by introducing performance-based funding.</p>
<p>More public funding tied to performance is likely to happen here in Australia. But we will need to learn from overseas experiences and ensure it does not threaten equity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Harvey has received funding from the Australian Government through the National Priorities Pool to undertake research into the re-recruitment of students who have withdrawn from higher education, and the impact of university employability strategies on student equity.</span></em></p>There are already signs of this happening in Australia, but research from overseas reveals few benefits.Andrew Harvey, Director, Centre for Higher Education Equity and Diversity Research, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/714122017-01-18T06:03:47Z2017-01-18T06:03:47ZUniversity completion rates won’t be improved by looking at isolated causes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153143/original/image-20170118-21183-4ekh0b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There is often more than one factor at play when a student drops out of a university course. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>News media are widely reporting on <a href="http://education.gov.au/completion-rates-cohort-analyses">new data</a> released by the government showing that one-third of students starting university in 2009 had not finished their studies within six years.</p>
<p>This stat makes a good headline, but oversimplifies the reality, which is detrimental to improving higher education standards. </p>
<p>When you drill down into this data, the picture is very different for a number of universities. Completion rates range from 36.9% to 88%.</p>
<p>Those in rural and regional areas – in Queensland in particular – struggle the most to retain students, and accounted for seven of the ten lowest-completing institutions. Those based in the city have the highest rates of completion. </p>
<p>This is not necessarily a reflection on the quality of the educational experience that rural and regional universities provide, but reflects the demographics of the students they support. </p>
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<p>So why is it that some universities – mainly those in rural and regional areas – are still struggling to reduce drop-out rates?</p>
<h2>More studying part-time?</h2>
<p>One key message of the report is that type of attendance, among measured variables, appears to have most influence on student completion. That is, part-time students are less likely to complete their studies than full-time students.</p>
<p>A cursory read of the part-time enrolments in individual universities might seem to support this argument. Generally, universities with below-average completion rates have above-average part-time enrolments, and vice versa. </p>
<p>However, the reality is more complex. For example, the Australian National University has one of the best completion rates but above-average part-time enrolments. Conversely, Federation University has one of the worst completion rates, but lower-than-average part-time enrolments. </p>
<p>The fact is, as the report itself acknowledges, despite part-time enrolment having the largest influence of all variables measured, it still explains only 6.31% of the variation in completion rates. </p>
<p>The report acknowledges that the method of analysis may overstate the strength of the relationship between particular factors and completion, and that a range of factors are “less amenable to measurement or unmeasurable”. However, these important caveats, by and large, do not make it into the media releases.</p>
<p>Reporting that part-time students struggle more than full-time students to complete studies, or that one in three students don’t complete, makes for good headlines but does not accurately reflect the real issues nor help experts advocate for meaningful change. </p>
<p>For example, many mature-age students study part-time because of work and family commitments. Encouraging them to move to full-time studies would exacerbate the problem in most cases, not solve it.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.acer.edu.au/files/Completion-of-Equity-Groups-JTD-RB-V3-N3-May-2015.pdf">Other research</a> has found that factors such as socio-economic status, indigeneity and geographical location are significant predictors of lower completion rates. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-students-are-most-likely-to-drop-out-of-university-56276">important factors</a> were downplayed in this latest report. </p>
<p>Even more important is the need to consider the effect of multiple factors. In other words, consider a student’s part-time status as sometimes being a cause of disadvantage and at other times a consequence.</p>
<p>One way of thinking about it is to consider a student failing to complete as a boat sinking because of multiple holes. Pointing out one leak and fixing it won’t stop the boat sinking.</p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.ncsehe.edu.au/publications/investigating-the-relationship-between-equity-and-graduate-outcomes-in-australia/">related analyses</a> of graduate outcomes show that it is not necessarily about being Indigenous, or living in a regional part of Australia, but about how the two – and other factors – come together.</p>
<h2>Result of demand-driven system?</h2>
<p>Concerns have regularly been raised that increasing access to higher education will lead to universities admitting lower-quality students. And that this may in turn cause a spike in non-completions. </p>
<p>However, there is no evidence yet that the demand-driven system – introduced in 2012 to allow universities to recruit as many students as they wish – has led to an overall decline in academic standards. </p>
<h2>Students’ ATAR scores</h2>
<p>The report confirms that the higher a student’s ATAR score – an overall score that is given to students when they leave school – the more likely it is that the student will complete. This finding is in line with previous research which found that <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED541754">prior academic performance</a> is the main predictor of subsequent university performance. </p>
<p>But when considered as the only variable, an ATAR explains only 3.86% of variance in completion rates. So having a lower ATAR score in no way means the student is destined to fail. However, there is a danger that this will be a take-home message for many readers.</p>
<h2>Students are taking longer to complete</h2>
<p>The report looked at how many students had completed within four, six and nine years after starting university. It found that while the four-year data is showing a small but steady decline in completion rates, the longer-series ones indicate that students are still completing, just taking longer to do so than before.</p>
<p>Four-year completion rates have dropped from 47.4% to 45.2% (2005-08 compared to 2011-14). Six-year completion rates have barely moved; being 67.0% in 2005-10 and 66.8% in 2009-14. Nine-year completion rates have also changed little: from 73.6 in 2005-13 to 73.5% in 2006-14. </p>
<p>This is line with <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07294360.2014.973385">previous research</a> showing that increasing access to higher education may cause rates of quicker completion (eg within four years) to fall. </p>
<p><a href="http://completecollege.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/4-Year-Myth.pdf">Research in the US</a> suggests that taking longer to complete studies is due to four reasons: bad planning or advice, switching courses, switching universities, and taking unnecessary units. This may prove a useful guide to direct research in Australia to look at why the same is occurring here. </p>
<p>Governments need to stop considering individual factors such as race, age or wealth in isolation when measuring higher education disadvantage. This requires researchers and policymakers to do the same. Ultimately, they are all proxies for real disadvantage, something that is distinct to most individuals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71412/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Pitman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lower completion rates for rural and remote universities are not necessarily a reflection on the quality of the educational experience they provide, but reflect the demographics of their students.Tim Pitman, Researcher in Higher Education Policy, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/416772015-05-12T20:11:52Z2015-05-12T20:11:52ZATAR found to be a poor predictor of how well students do at uni<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81333/original/image-20150512-19560-tqvaor.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Doing poorly at school doesn't mean you'll do poorly at university.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com.au</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s generally assumed that students who do well at school will go on to do well at university, and students who perform poorly at school will continue to under achieve in their tertiary studies. New research from Victoria University has found that, especially for disadvantaged students, neither is necessarily the case.</p>
<p>Not all university students are “typical”, and many come from diverse backgrounds and enter university from different pathways so it is important to give numerous other factors close consideration when discussing student success.</p>
<p>We have <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/cses/pdfs/the-academic-performance-of-first-year-students-at-VU-by-entry-score-and-SES-2009-2013.pdf">completed a report</a> on first-year, full-time student achievement at Victoria University, with support from the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education at Curtin University. VU has strong representation from lower socio-economic groups and recent migrant families in its student population, which means we were able to study achievement across a diverse group of students. </p>
<p>For students in our study, more than 55% were female, the mean ATAR score was less than 60, about one in five were born in non-English speaking countries, about one third speak a language other than English at home and more than 80% went to government or Catholic schools. </p>
<p>For these students, we found ATARs to be a weak predictor of their academic performance. </p>
<h2>The methods</h2>
<p>To accurately look at the role of ATARs in predicting university marks for such a diverse student cohort, we have considered many factors that are important for determining outcomes. We also considered standard measures of socio-economic status and, given <a href="http://www.ncver.edu.au/publications/2355.html">mounting criticism</a> of those, we developed a new hybrid measure.</p>
<p>Our new measure of low socio-economic status adjusts the geographic measure of the 2011 Census to account for school background for individual students. Subsequent research (to be presented in coming months) shows that this new measure of socio-economic status outperforms five other alternatives that incorporate ABS data with school types and VCE rankings. </p>
<h2>Major findings</h2>
<p>While on average students with higher ATARs achieved higher marks in first-year courses, many also achieved low marks. And, many low-ATAR students achieved high marks (see Chart 1 below). This suggests that with proper, considered support programs in place, students with low ATARs can be successful in university studies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81348/original/image-20150512-22568-10lmlg7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart 1. Student performance by ATAR score and SES, VU students, 2010-2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Also of note is that low socio-economic students perform better than high socio-economic students for a given ATAR score in their first year results, when controlling for other variables. This indicates that students can perform well despite disadvantages. </p>
<p>However, we also find that when all observable factors are considered, high socio-economic students do better on average than low socio-economic students. This shows the extent to which factors other than ATAR scores pull down marks for low socio-economic students, suggesting that ATARs should not be the only consideration for determining student admissions. </p>
<p>Another interesting finding is that school quality (as measured by median school VCE score) has a small influence on first year performance. Again, controlling for other variables, some students from lower performing schools can do better than their peers from elite schools in their first year of university.</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>Having a better understanding of what ATARs mean for success at university is important both for national education policy, and for individual universities that determine their own educational strategies. </p>
<p>While Victoria University may be more diverse than other institutions, the findings we’ve uncovered warrant consideration across all universities. Low ATAR students from low socio-economic families and non-English speaking backgrounds, with the right support, can succeed at university.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41677/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Messinis received funding from the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education (NCSEHE) at Curtin University.</span></em></p>New research has found that results at high school aren’t good predictors of how students will perform at university.George Messinis, Senior Research Fellow at the Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies (VISES), Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/364782015-01-20T19:25:06Z2015-01-20T19:25:06ZThe ATAR debate: students need to be able to finish uni, not just start it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69486/original/image-20150120-24465-jz3g3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Students with low ATARs are less likely to graduate from university, but very likely to leave with debt. So is it ethical to give places to all-comers?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Controversies surrounding university courses with <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/universities-ramp-up-offers-to-lowest-tier/story-e6frgcjx-1227188986104">low ATAR admission requirements</a> have become a January ritual. Once universities make their offers to potential students, debates start over whether widening opportunities to attend university are a sign of declining standards in Australia’s higher education system.</p>
<p><a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/node/36743">Statistics released last week</a> show a steady increase in offers to lower-ATAR university applicants. In 2010, fewer than 2000 applicants with an ATAR below 50 received any university offer. By 2014, more than 7000 such applicants received an offer. If <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/firstround-vtac-offers-decline-as-more-students-apply-direct-to-uni-20150119-12tawz.html">early reports of the 2015 offer round</a> are a guide, that number will grow this year.</p>
<p>The policy trigger for the latest decline in ATARs was the full lifting in 2012 of previous caps on the number of undergraduate university places. While some universities set minimum ATARs based on academic requirements, most ATAR cut-offs reflect supply and demand. In this academic auction, the price of entry has dropped because universities offer more places.</p>
<p>Sometimes this trend is framed as evidence of falling standards. The <a href="https://www.ncsehe.edu.au/truth-about-atars/">main response to this</a> is that what matters is how well a student does at the end of their course, not the start. Minimum ATARs would deny opportunities to people who could successfully complete a course.</p>
<p>Last summer, I worked with David Kemp on a policy review of the <a href="http://education.gov.au/report-review-demand-driven-funding-system">demand driven funding system</a> that led to these decreasing ATARs. This was one of the most difficult issues in the review. While we rejected proposals for a minimum ATAR, we also found considerable evidence that there is a problem.</p>
<p>A study tracking students who started their courses in 2005 found that only a little more than half of students <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/completion_rates_of_domestic_bachelor_students_-_a_cohort_analysis_1.pdf">with ATARs of 59 or below</a> had completed a degree by the end of 2012. Some were still enrolled, but the vast majority of the rest had dropped out. By comparison, for students in the top ATAR ranges completion rates were 90% or more. There is a clear pattern in the data: the lower the ATAR, the lower the completion rate.</p>
<p><a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/review_of_the_demand_driven_funding_system_report_for_the_website.pdf">Shorter-term attrition data</a> gives little reason to believe that things have improved for later low-ATAR students. Nearly a quarter of students with ATARs below 50 are not re-enrolling for their second year, although some will come back after time off. </p>
<p>The dilemma here is not so much opportunity versus excellence as opportunity versus likely outcomes. We do not want to deny people a potentially life-changing chance at a degree and more interesting work. The argument has an equity angle, as students from disadvantaged backgrounds are over-represented among lower-ATAR school leavers. But nor do we want to waste a student’s time on a course that has a high risk of not leading to a degree, but a near certainty of leaving them with student debt. </p>
<h2>So how do we fix it?</h2>
<p>The first step to improved completions is better decision-making by prospective students. It would be wrong to think that lower-ATAR applicants are naive about their prospects. More than half of the applicants with an ATAR of 50 or less who receive an offer <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/node/36745">reject it</a>. </p>
<p>But with data on the high rate of non-completion hidden in obscure government reports, people who do accept their offer may not realise the risks they are taking. With better information, they may make different decisions.</p>
<p>The second step is making universities more accountable for their admission policies. In theory, <a href="http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/F2013C00169/Html/Text#_Toc330548949">regulation of admissions</a> has been tightened in recent years. Universities need to be able to prove that they: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… ensure that students have adequate prior knowledge and skills to undertake the course of study successfully.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>They are also supposed to have measures in place to identify and assist students who are struggling academically. In practice, it is not clear how the <a href="http://www.teqsa.gov.au/">Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency</a> is enforcing these requirements. </p>
<p>Public reporting on attrition rates by basis of admission at each university, rather than just the <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/node/35983">aggregate numbers that are published now</a>, would help. It would inform potential students, and if the rates are poor this could prompt regulatory action. Universities shown to have effective programs would get public credit for their success. </p>
<p>The third step is to think through our institutional provision of post-secondary education. One recommendation of the <a href="http://education.gov.au/report-review-demand-driven-funding-system">demand driven review final report</a> was to expand the use of pathway colleges. These colleges typically offer the academic equivalent of first-year university, but taught differently. They aim to build some of the study skills that led to lower ATARs, and without which students are likely to fail at university. </p>
<p>The government <a href="http://education.gov.au/other-higher-education-institutions">accepted this recommendation</a>, but the controversies surrounding <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-few-embrace-higher-ed-changes-but-many-more-have-reservations-29043">fees and funding cuts</a> look likely to sink the entire higher education reform package. </p>
<p>While institutional reform will probably have to wait for another time, improved information could be done fairly easily. It does not have to go to the Senate and would not cost very much money. It would save money if more lower-ATAR applicants decided not to accept their offers.</p>
<p>Reform needs to be geared towards not just increasing enrolments, but to what is in the best interests of students and prospective students. We want to give them a chance to complete a degree, not just to start one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Norton was a government-appointed co-reviewer of the demand driven system. </span></em></p>Controversies surrounding university courses with low ATAR admission requirements have become a January ritual. Once universities make their offers to potential students, debates start over whether widening…Andrew Norton, Program Director, Higher Education , Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.