tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/unrest-545/articlesUnrest – The Conversation2024-02-07T11:27:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229232024-02-07T11:27:52Z2024-02-07T11:27:52ZMacky Sall throws Senegal’s democratic credentials into doubt<p>Senegal’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Macky-Sall">President Macky Sall</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/3/senegals-macky-sall-postpones-presidential-election">announced</a> in early February that presidential elections, originally scheduled for 25 February, would be postponed indefinitely. The announcement has raised fears of popular protests, violent repression, a once democratic president transforming into an authoritarian ruler – and possibly even another coup d’état in west Africa. </p>
<p>There has been a flurry of coups in the region since 2020 – Mali in August <a href="https://theconversation.com/mali-celebrates-after-presidents-ouster-but-there-are-few-good-coups-144846">that year</a> followed by <a href="https://monitor.civicus.org/explore/malis-military-coup-within-coup-no-elections-february-2021-journalist-abducted/">a second</a> in 2021. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/05/guinean-soldiers-claim-to-have-seized-power-in-coup-attempt">Guinea</a> also saw a coup that year and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/5/coup-in-burkina-faso-what-you-need-to-know">Burkina Faso</a> a year later. In July 2023 the military took control in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-west-africa-wagner-bazoum-c233b0d2becf61ebb00c5705941fc168">Niger</a>.</p>
<p>Senegal has never suffered a coup d'etat and has been considered the region’s <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/senegal/newsroom/fact-sheets/senegal-democracy-and-governance-fact-sheet#:%7E:text=Senegal%20has%20a%20reputation%20of,place%20following%20credible%20democratic%20elections.">most stable democracy</a>. </p>
<p>Since <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/place/senegal">independence in 1960</a> it has had three peaceful transitions of power. First in 1980, from <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Leopold-Senghor">Leopold Senghor</a> to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Abdou-Diouf">Abdou Diouf</a>; then, in 2000, from Diouf to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Abdoulaye-Wade">Abdoulaye Wade</a>; and then, in 2012, from <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Abdoulaye-Wade">Wade to Sall</a>.</p>
<p>In political science terminology, a democracy is considered consolidated only after a “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/two-turnover-test">double turnover</a>”. This is when an opposition party which came to power through democratic elections (the first turnover) itself hands over power to its opposition after losing democratic elections (the second turnover).</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://www.ags.edu/international-relations/agsird-faculty/douglas-a-yates">political scientist and researcher</a> with an interest in African politics and democracy building. Based on my experience, I believe Senegal is exceptional in west Africa. </p>
<p>The country has enjoyed a “triple turnover” of power through democratic elections. Yet all three of these peaceful democratic transitions were preceded by a crisis with incumbent presidents attempting to remain in office beyond their constitutional mandate. </p>
<p>Senegal’s democratic credentials seemed to be cemented by the fact that none of the presidents succeeded in staying on unconstitutionally.</p>
<p>This track record should be used to evaluate the prospects of a new president coming to office.</p>
<h2>A model west African democracy</h2>
<p>Over the past four decades Senegal became known for its <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/senegals-internet-shutdowns-are-another-sign-of-a-democracy-in-peril/">relatively independent</a> media and free expression. The presidents of Senegal all managed, eventually, to step down from power. This allowed elections to become the only game in town. </p>
<p>Senegal is rated “<a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/senegal/freedom-world/2023">partly free</a>” by Freedom House in its <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_DigtalPDF.pdf">Freedom in the World 2023</a> report. The think-tank uses a set of criteria such as political rights and civil liberties to categorise countries as free, partly free and not free. Senegal scores well in some areas, like academic freedom and individuals’ right to practise and express their faith or non-belief in public. But it falls down in others, such as restricting people’s right of assembly and violently dispersing some demonstrations. </p>
<p>Although regular elections are held, each one of Senegal’s leaders started off well, then attempted to stay in power longer than the designated time.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.presidence.sn/en/presidency/leopold-sedar-senghor">Leopold Sedar Senghor</a> became Senegal’s first president after independence in 1960. He came to power on the back of his reputation as an intellectual of the “négritude” movement, as a democratic opponent of French colonialism and someone who had fought for freedom. </p>
<p>But, in 1963, 1968, 1973 and 1978, he staged presidential <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/plebiscite">plebiscites</a> so that he could remain in office. </p>
<p>Then, in December 1980, after 22 years in office, he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/01/01/africas-aging-poet-politician-steps-down-as-president-of-senegal/e09641fe-a024-4942-b9f8-80a7068ab241/">decided</a> to step down and hand over to his designated successor, Abdou Diouf. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.presidence.sn/en/presidency/abdou-diouf">Abdou Diouf</a> had the same temptation. He held on to the presidency until decades of peaceful, principled, democratic opposition led by Abdoulaye Wade forced him to accept his losing bid for re-election in 2000.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.presidence.sn/en/presidency/abdoulaye-wade">Wade</a> served time in prison following a long struggle for power, and was forced into exile in Paris. He went on to lead a popular movement that ousted the long-ruling Socialist Party and Diouf. </p>
<p>He promised to clean up the corruption inherent in single-party rule. But towards the end of his second mandate in 2009, he too began to imitate his predecessors. Wade spent his last years in the presidential palace <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20111223-wade-senegal-seek-third-term-presidential-election-clashes">trying</a> to win a third term. When that did not work he named his son <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/profile/id/254/page/4">Karim Wade</a> as his dynastic successor. But Karim Wade was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32020574">convicted of coruption</a> and his father’s wishes weren’t fulfilled.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.presidence.sn/en/presidency/biography">Macky Sall</a> of the <a href="https://www.senegel.org/en/movements/political-parties/poldetails/2">Alliance for the Republic party</a> came to power in 2012 as an honest, anti-corruption politician. But he too has fallen. </p>
<p>After his re-election in 2019, he named an uncharismatic technocratic prime minister, <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/world/senegal-pm-amadou-ba-named-ruling-party-candidate-for-president/">Amadou Ba</a>, as his number two. This turned his former prime minister <a href="https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2022/11/23/ex-pm-aminata-toure-talks-2024-presidential-election-with-former-opponents,109867336-art">Aminata “Mimi” Touré</a> into his opponent. (She is now running for president.) It also ensured that he would not face a prime minister becoming more popular than himself.</p>
<p>Sall clearly wanted to run for a third term. Yet <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66093983">he renounced</a> that option in 2023, and endorsed Amadou Ba as his candidate for succession.</p>
<p>The last main opposition candidate left in 2023, after the exclusion of Karim Wade, was <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/video/20230602-who-is-ousmane-sonko-senegal-opposition-leader-convicted-of-corrupting-youth">Ousmane Sonko</a>. A social media personality, he is sometimes referred to as the “Trump of Senegal” because of his shocking statements, which have endeared him to young Senegalese.
In <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66086570">one instance</a>, he said “those who have ruled Senegal from the beginning deserve to be shot.” </p>
<p>There is also a more serious side to Sonko, a former tax inspector who investigated corruption in the Sall government. He published a <a href="https://www.fauves-editions.fr/catalogue/couv/aplat/9791030200607.pdf">book</a> about oil and gas corruption in Senegal which implicated the Sall government. </p>
<p>In 2023 sexual assault charges were mounted against him, and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/01/senegal-ousmane-sonko-trial-conviction-protests-macky-sall-election/#:%7E:text=On%20Thursday%2C%20Sonko%20was%20convicted,allowed%20to%20appeal%20the%20decision.">he was imprisoned</a>. This disqualified him from running in the 2024 election. Sonko <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/30/ousmane-sonko-chooses-bassirou-diomaye-faye-as-replacement-in-senegals-presidential-race//">endorsed</a> Bassirou Diomaye Faye as his replacement.</p>
<p>His supporters have always maintained that the charges were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/police-fire-tear-gas-supporters-senegal-opposition-leader-sonko-2023-02-16/">trumped up</a> because of his opposition to the Sall government.</p>
<p>Sonko was acquitted on the rape charge but <a href="https://apnews.com/article/senegal-opposition-leader-sonko-rape-verdict-a75472375f6a6d5b8918a5c813c292cd">convicted</a> for “corrupting the youth”. Young people <a href="https://theconversation.com/senegal-behind-the-protests-is-a-fight-for-democratic-freedoms-208612">took to the streets in protest</a>, calling Sall a tyrant. Sall used the repressive apparatus of the state to quell the protests.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/senegal-behind-the-protests-is-a-fight-for-democratic-freedoms-208612">Senegal: behind the protests is a fight for democratic freedoms</a>
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<p>Then, on 4 February, as campaigning was about to begin, in an unprecedented move Sall <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/04/senegal-president-postpones-election-hours-before-official-campaign-start">announced</a> that he was postponing the election indefinitely, citing a dispute over the candidate list.</p>
<p>Protesters and police <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/2/5/police-and-protesters-clash-after-senegal-election-postponed#:%7E:text=Senegalese%20police%20clashed%20with%20opposition%20supporters%20protesting%20against%20election%20delay%20in%20Dakar.&text=Police%20made%20arrests%20and%20fired%20tear%20gas%20as%20opposition%20supporters,to%20postpone%20elections%20in%20Senegal.">clashed</a> in Dakar. </p>
<p>Tensions continued to rise. As opposition leaders and supporters launched protests, the government imposed <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/02/05/senegal-cuts-internet-access-as-lawmakers-debate-a-bill-to-possibly-extend-the-presidents-/">restrictions on</a> access to the internet.</p>
<p>On 5 February parliamentarians were asked to vote on postponing the election until 15 December. A long and heated debate ensued. Several opposition lawmakers were forcibly removed from the chamber while the police used tear gas to disperse protesters gathered outside the parliament building.</p>
<p>In the end the decision to postpone the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/senegal-should-hold-presidential-vote-soon-possible-african-union-2024-02-05/">poll until December</a> was passed with opposition MPs missing. A number <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ecowas-urges-politicians-senegal-urgently-re-establish-electoral-calendar-2024-02-06/">were arrested</a>.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>In my view Senegal is a consolidated democracy. It has passed through three peaceful democratic transitions of power from a ruling party to the opposition. </p>
<p>The optics of the present moment are certainly not good. But past experience suggests a new president could still come to office, either from the ruling party or from the opposition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Yates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Senegal is considered west Africa’s most stable democracy because it has never suffered a coup d'etat. But all its former presidents have attempted to extend their tenure of office.Douglas Yates, Professor of Political Science , American Graduate School in Paris (AGS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925052022-10-26T05:10:40Z2022-10-26T05:10:40ZCrime, COVID and climate change - South African tourism faces many threats, but it’s resilient<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490109/original/file-20221017-18-m33f7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A family of African elephants walk through the Addo Elephant National Park in South Africa's Eastern Cape Province. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Jon Hrusa</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South Africa’s tourism industry has been rocked by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.co.za/numbi-gate-kruger-national-park-closure-after-german-tourist-murder-2022-10">the murder of a German visitor</a> during an attempted robbery. The development resulted in negative media publicity, with a potentially adverse impact on the country’s image as a safe tourist destination. This comes at a time when the sector is recovering from the devastating effects of the COVID pandemic. The Conversation Africa’s political editor Thabo Leshilo asked Kaitano Dube, an expert in ecotourism, about tourism’s place in South Africa’s economy</em>.</p>
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<h2>How important is tourism to South Africa’s economy?</h2>
<p>Tourism is critical to South Africa’s socioeconomic development. It provides numerous benefits, including employment and entrepreneurship opportunities and much-needed foreign currency earnings. It also provides funding for conserving the country’s natural heritage in several protected areas. </p>
<p>In 2018, the <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/AboutNDT/Documents/Tourism%20Sector%20Recovery%20Plan.pdf">tourism sector directly contributed</a> 2.9% of South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 725,000 jobs. Its indirect contribution brought the share to 8.6% of GDP and 1.49 million jobs. Foreign visitors directly spent R82.5 billion, equal to 9.2% of national exports – the second most important export sector. Local tourists spent another R9.49 billion. </p>
<h2>How has the sector grown – before and after COVID?</h2>
<p>South Africa’s tourism industry had been growing <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Arrivalsdeparturestravellerstravel2006%E2%80%932020.jpg">steadily</a> over the years before the outbreak of COVID in 2019. But the sector is vulnerable to disease outbreaks, economic downturns and other shocks such as climate threats. This was evident during the devastating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2020.100319">2018 “Day Zero” drought</a> in Cape Town.</p>
<p>There was a dip <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Arrivalsdeparturestravellerstravel2006%E2%80%932020.jpg">in 2009</a> due to the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/decade-after-global-recession">2008 global financial crisis</a>. Before the COVID pandemic, the tourist arrivals stood at about 5.1 million. They plunged to about 2.4 million in 2020 before sliding further to about 930,000 <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/AboutNDT/Documents/NDT%20insights%20report%20September%202022_v1.pdf">in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>Disease outbreaks on the continent also adversely affected the tourism sector around <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/IHR-05-2020-0015">2015 and in other periods</a> due to the <a href="https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2018/Impact%20of%20the%20Ebola%20epidemic%20on%20Travel%20and%20Tourism%202018.pdf?ver=2021-02-25-182521-103#:%7E:text=The%20impact%20of%20Ebola%20on%20Travel%20%26%20Tourism%20was%20immediate%20for,50%25%20from%202013%20to%202014">adverse impacts of Ebola</a> in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2020.100319">2015-2018 drought in Cape Town</a> also slowed tourism growth in the country, because the city is in one of the biggest tourism nodes. </p>
<p>As of the <a href="https://live.southafrica.net/media/298469/sat-performance-report-q2-2022-final-1.pdf?downloadId=412579">second quarter of 2022</a>, the domestic tourism market had recovered by 139% as compared to 2019 base year which translates into 9 million domestic trips. </p>
<h2>What are the main drivers of tourism in South Africa?</h2>
<p>A rich cultural and natural heritage makes the country a must-visit tourist destination. The wildlife in <a href="https://www.sanparks.org/">20 national parks</a> and 10 UNESCO World Heritage <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/statesparties/za">sites</a> ensures that tourists are spoiled for choice. </p>
<p>The coastline is another draw card. And South Africa is a gateway to other African tourist destinations. </p>
<p>Most tourists who come to the country travel for holidays (40%). Others visit friends and relatives (36.9%). Business meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions account for about 8% of visitors. </p>
<p>Prior to the COVID pandemic, most African tourists came from Zimbabwe (1,1 million), Lesotho (827 000) and Mozambique (681,530). The <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/AboutNDT/Documents/NDT%20insights%20report%20September%202022_v1.pdf">most important international markets</a> outside africa were the US (183,134), Germany (149,531) and the UK (220,830). By the 2nd quarter of 2022 the domestic tourism market revenue grew to R24.4 billion representing a growth of 294.4% compared to 2019, while international market tourism spending went down to R11.1 billion marking a 36.4% decline.</p>
<h2>What are the main threats to tourism and how are these being addressed?</h2>
<p>The tourism sector in South Africa faces multiple threats, but nothing the country cannot handle. As noted earlier, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-has-already-hit-southern-africa-heres-how-we-know-169062">climate change</a> is an existential threat. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-KZN-floods-scientific-report.pdf">deadly floods in KwaZulu-Natal</a> province in 2022 also damaged the international airport and holiday homes and prolonged beach closures, with far-reaching implications for tourism recovery in the province and the country.</p>
<p>Diseases and pandemics remain a threat. The aftershocks of COVID can be seen in rising inflation, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/11/interest-rate-increases-volatile-markets-signal-rising-financial-stability-risks">high interest rates</a> and the fear of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes">global recession</a>. These threaten the sustainability of tourism in South Africa.</p>
<p>The political and social instability in the country, as seen in frequent mass protests and xenophobia, threaten the flow of African tourists. There is a <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/AboutNDT/Documents/NDT%20insights%20report%20September%202022_v1.pdf">clear decline in arrivals</a> from countries such as Zimbabwe and Lesotho, which have been the targets of anti-immigrant rhetoric by some politicians.</p>
<p>Such hate campaigns against African countries threaten South Africa’s attraction as a destination for tourists from such places. Other negatives include the instability caused by infighting within the governing African National Congress – which resulted in the deadly <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2022-02-07-anc-infighting-a-threat-to-sa-security-panel-finds/">July 2021 riots</a>. This taints the country’s image and brand.</p>
<p>Other critical challengers include the knock-on effects of the Ukraine-Russia war. It has created uncertainties that have harmed the global tourism market, with implications for South African tourism. These can be worsened and compounded by internal challenges such as energy security.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-economy-has-taken-some-heavy-body-blows-can-it-recover-183165">South Africa's economy has taken some heavy body blows: can it recover?</a>
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<p>The South African tourism market is quite resilient, but the issue of tourists’ security warrants attention. The country is generally perceived as a risky destination due to <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-bheki-cele-quarter-one-crime-statistics-20222023-19-aug-2022-0000#:%7E:text=From%20April%20to%20June%202022,and%20children%20who%20escaped%20death.">high crime levels</a>. </p>
<p>Other concerns pertain to air connectivity after several airlines went under due to <a href="https://doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720-99">mismanagement and the COVID pandemic</a>. Some local airlines were placed under administration or went insolvent – including <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/625510/goodbye-sa-express-final-liquidation-order-granted/">SA Express</a> and <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2022-06-14-comair-flies-into-liquidation-with-assets-of-r35bn/">Comair</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/airline-tie-up-for-kenya-and-south-africa-possible-rewards-and-risks-174628">Airline tie-up for Kenya and South Africa: possible rewards, and risks</a>
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<p>Mango, a subsidiary of South African Airways, is still battling to return to the skies <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/625562/as-sa-express-is-grounded-for-good-eyes-turn-to-another-troubled-airline/">after a severe cash burn</a>. </p>
<p>It is not clear what impact new airlines such as <a href="https://www.lift.co.za/?gclid=CjwKCAjw-rOaBhA9EiwAUkLV4oaSNilMKYnxLLSK0IX4N2Ldx5gUDM_i3qiwlrdLTmKiHZIy9MppXhoCFDsQAvD_BwE">Lift</a>, and the expansion of airlines such as <a href="https://www.flyairlink.com/en/za/?gclid=CjwKCAjw-rOaBhA9EiwAUkLV4qhSZ9YbFR671kUiWTj4iNJMU8Y0MNKhighjsEKYPiU9ap9h6h0WyRoCFCAQAvD_BwE">Airlink</a>, <a href="https://www.flysafair.co.za/">FlySAfair</a> and <a href="https://www.flycemair.co.za/?gclid=CjwKCAjw-rOaBhA9EiwAUkLV4tT7e8IMcrBBtwqJIbxCCjgajAYfvLKr3cv5nn5ivoe548MU2eY6xBoCOFUQAvD_BwE">Cemair</a> will have on tourist movements across the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaitano Dube receives funding from the Vaal University of Technology and the National Research Foundation (NRF). </span></em></p>Political and social instability in the country, as seen in frequent mass protests and xenophobia, threaten the flow of African tourists.Kaitano Dube, Ecotourism Management Lecturer, Vaal University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1769912022-02-11T15:20:17Z2022-02-11T15:20:17ZSouth Africans are feeling more insecure: do Ramaphosa’s plans add up?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445951/original/file-20220211-25-m1kr1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke rises from a building set on fire at the height of looting and violence in South Africa in July 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">RAJESH JANTILAL/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2022 <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2022-state-nation-address-10-feb-2022-0000">state of the nation address</a> underscored the problematic role that government agencies and others had played in <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/judicial-commission-enquiry-state-capture-report-part-1-4-jan-2022-0000">state capture</a> and the <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/content/report-expert-panel-july-2021-civil-unrest">2021 civil unrest</a>.</p>
<p>The unrest and looting that followed the arrest of former president Jacob Zuma for contempt of court sparked widespread violence and destruction of property, and resulted in the deaths of more than 350 people. Most of the violence took place in two economically important provinces – <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-20-making-sense-of-disorder-seven-days-of-anarchy-and-government-inaction-that-changed-south-africa/">KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-have-south-africans-been-on-a-looting-rampage-research-offers-insights-164571">Why have South Africans been on a looting rampage? Research offers insights</a>
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</p>
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<p>The violence took place in the context of <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/downloads/april_june_2021_22_quarter1_presentation.pdf">rising levels of crime and unrest</a> related to poor service delivery, and <a href="https://cramsurvey.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/1.-Spaull-N.-Daniels-R.-C-et-al.-2021-NIDS-CRAM-Wave-5-Synthesis-Report.pdf">deteriorating socioeconomic conditions</a> in poorer households. These were exacerbated by COVID-19 lockdown regulations. </p>
<p>The latest quarterly <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/downloads/july_to_september_2021_22_quarter2_presentation.pdf">crime statistics</a> showed that criminal offending has continued to increase. There’s also been a growing sense of insecurity fuelled by a spate of attacks. At the beginning of the year there was an arson attack on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/03/south-africa-man-charged-with-arson-over-blaze-at-parliament">parliament</a> which left the building gutted. This was followed by attacks on other buildings of <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-02-06-arson-attempt-at-st-georges-cathedral-triggers-fears-over-political-instability/">symbolic significance</a>.</p>
<p>In his speech, Ramaphosa emphasised the dire levels of poverty, inequality, and unemployment affecting many South Africans. He suggested these factors combined with the poor quality of intelligence and policing had contributed to the civil unrest in July 2021. Related to this, the ability of the police and the State Security Agency to keep South Africans safe had been compromised by <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2021-04-21-state-security-agency-had-structures-to-deal-with-opponents-of-state-capture/">state capture</a> and <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-10-state-capture-2-0-south-africas-stirring-threat/">political interference</a>.</p>
<p>Looking to the future, Ramaphosa indicated that government would pursue a “new consensus” with a view to developing a “comprehensive social compact”. This would involve extensive partnerships with the private sector to tackle the country’s numerous socioeconomic and service delivery challenges. </p>
<p>However, as the July 2021 unrest and looting graphically showed, crime and lawlessness can debilitate and destroy government efforts to facilitate and support economic growth.</p>
<h2>President’s interventions</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa outlined a series of measures that the government would pursue in 2022 to address crime. These included leadership reforms within the security agencies, support for community policing forums and the implementation of the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/vg/gbv/NSP-GBVF-FINAL-DOC-04-05.pdf">National Strategic Plan on Gender-based Violence and Femicide</a>.</p>
<p>The leadership changes are important, especially within the South African Police Service. The national police commissioner has been under a dark cloud for a number of years. He has shown unwillingness to cooperate with important investigations by the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-01-30-game-on-ipid-lays-second-criminal-charge-against-national-police-commissioner-sitole/">Independent Police Investigative Directorate</a>. And police response to the handling of the civil unrest was viewed as <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/investigations/exclusive-bheki-cele-blame-khehla-sitole-for-july-unrest-not-me-20211203">lacklustre</a>.</p>
<p>Experts and civil society have for years been calling for leadership changes in the <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2021-07-30-calls-for-top-cop-sitole-to-step-down-intensify/">South African Police Service</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">State Security Agency</a>. The <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/42/state-security-agency-ssa">agency</a> is tasked with flagging domestic and foreign threats, potential threats to national stability and the safety of the nation. </p>
<p>The appointment of highly competent, unbiased, and experienced police and intelligence leaders would address some of the key institutional failings. But more would need to be done to address the issue of trust. </p>
<p>A 2021 <a href="https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Dispatches/ad474-south_africans_trust_in_institutions_reaches_new_low-afrobarometer-20aug21.pdf">study</a> by Afrobarometer, the independent pan-African surveys network, indicated that 73% of South Africans trusted the police “a little” or “not at all”. Only 26% trusted the police “somewhat” or “a lot”. </p>
<p>By means of crude comparison a 2021 <a href="https://www.oecd.org/gov/trust-in-government.htm">Organisation for European Economic Cooperation and Development survey</a> of its member countries indicated that on average, 78% of populations trusted the police. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.slcdocs.com/ODHR/Website/Right%20to%20Safety/Literature/PoliceReformAndTheProblemOfTrust.pdf">Studies</a> of police reform have emphasised the importance of leadership change as a contributing factor to improving public faith. </p>
<p>A report of the <a href="https://www.westerncape.gov.za/police-ombudsman/files/atoms/files/khayelitsha_commission_report_0.pdf">Khayelitsha Commission on Inquiry</a> into poor levels of policing in Khayelitsha, Cape Town’s largest township, in 2014 pointed out that such trust was mostly built and sustained at the police station level. It also depended on police behaviour towards residents.</p>
<p>This points to the importance of involving communities. The government has long been aware of the need for cooperation between police and communities in building trust. The <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act68of1995.pdf">South African Police Service Act</a> in fact requires that the police service establish and cooperate with <a href="http://www.policesecretariat.gov.za/downloads/policies/community_policing.pdf">community policing forums</a> in all policing precincts.</p>
<p>The forums were envisaged as representative committees of communities mandated to promote communication and cooperation between the communities and the police. They’d also engage in joint problem-solving between civilians and the police. </p>
<p>They were also meant to facilitate transparency and accountability of the police, and improve delivery of police services.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.westerncape.gov.za/assets/departments/community-safety/cpf_research_on_the_design_of_standard_operating_models_for_neighbourhood_watches_and_community_police_forums_2016.pdf">research</a> (with other policing experts) has highlighted the important roles that community policing forums play in building and sustaining partnerships between the police and local communities.</p>
<p>The forums were found to be undertaking a variety of positive actions that contributed to preventing crime and improving community safety. </p>
<p>But their role has often been hamstrung. A <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/29392/">parliamentary hearing</a> on community police forums in 2019 identified numerous difficulties, especially in poorer areas. These included: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>inconsistent and often problematic ways members were elected </p></li>
<li><p>a lack of office space at police stations to accommodate the forums </p></li>
<li><p>inadequate support and funding </p></li>
<li><p>misunderstandings about the mandate and role of the forums.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It’s encouraging that Ramaphosa highlighted the need to reinvigorate and support community policing forums. But considerably more resources and expertise will be required to make them more effective. This is particularly true in high crime areas.</p>
<p>It was also encouraging that Ramaphosa specified that the government would continue to prioritise the scourge of <a href="https://www.saferspaces.org.za/understand/entry/gender-based-violence-in-south-africa">gender-based violence</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.whatworks.co.za/resources">Studies</a> show that the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/vg/gbv/NSP-GBVF-FINAL-DOC-04-05.pdf">presidential plan</a> on this issue, if properly implemented, could result in reductions in femicide and the physical, sexual and emotional abuse of women and girls in South Africa. </p>
<h2>The need to prioritise fighting crime</h2>
<p>I believe that the interventions set out by Ramaphosa will likely lead to an improvement in safety and security in South Africa. But there is a caveat: a more comprehensive approach is required if the country is to see a significant positive change.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the government has been engaged in an intense process of developing an <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202102/44173gen50.pdf">Integrated Crime and Violence Prevention Strategy</a> over the past ten years. This strives for a “whole of government and society” approach to the problem of crime. It also clearly specifies the prevention roles and responsibilities of all levels of government. It is essential that this strategy be prioritised too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176991/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guy Lamb is Commissioner with the National Planning Commission.</span></em></p>As the July 2021 unrest and looting graphically showed, crime and lawlessness can debilitate and destroy government efforts to facilitate and support economic growth.Guy Lamb, Criminologist / Lecturer, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1649682021-07-22T14:54:44Z2021-07-22T14:54:44ZViolence in South Africa: an uprising of elites, not of the people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412684/original/file-20210722-13-1conxh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trucks and business were looted and burnt during recent riots in South Africa. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Stringer</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>From time to time, South Africa is rudely reminded that its past continues to make its present and future difficult. It does not always recognise this reality when it sees it.</p>
<p>The latest – and most shocking – reminder is the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2021/7/13/violence-and-looting-escalates-in-south-africa-as-zuma-jailed">violence</a> which followed the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma. The mayhem devastated KwaZulu-Natal, the home of Zuma and his faction of the governing African National Congress (ANC), and damaged Gauteng, the economic heartland which also houses <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1021-14972020000100001">hostels</a> in which working migrants from KwaZulu-Natal live. </p>
<p>The violence was seen as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/unrest-is-being-used-to-subvert-south-africas-democracy-giving-in-is-not-an-option-164499">new threat to the democracy established in 1994</a>. But, while it was severe, it was a symptom of a past the country has yet to face, not a future it did not see coming. Even the one aspect which was new – the scale of violence in KwaZulu-Natal – was a product of realities which have been evident for years.</p>
<p>Destructive violence is frightening. In South Africa, it is even more alarming because its middle class, which <a href="https://witspress.co.za/catalogue/prisoners-of-the-past/">monopolises the debate</a>, assumes that it is only a matter of time before the country is engulfed in conflict. This makes it important to point out that, as severe as the violence was, it does not mean that the country’s democracy is in deep danger.</p>
<p>The South African mainstream, which expected democracy to usher in a perfect country and is repeatedly angered that it didn’t, ignores a core reality – that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338545954_Power_in_Action_democracy_citizenship_and_social_justice_by_Steven_Friedman">democracies are tested all the time</a>. For people who like power – who exist in all societies and at all times – there is nothing natural or necessary about democracy. It forces them to obey rules they would rather ignore, listen to voices they would rather not hear, and allow others to take decisions they would prefer to take. </p>
<p>This means that there is nothing fatal about democracy being tested – it always is. The question is whether it passes the test. The violence did test democracy. Whether President Cyril Ramaphosa is right that it was a <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/president-ramaphosa-attempted-insurrection-failed-gain-popular-support">failed insurrection</a> is open to debate. But the violence was aimed at ensuring that democracy did not work. Democracy survived the assault. Whether this test strengthens it depends on whether the issues which caused the violence are addressed. And that depends on understanding what the test was.</p>
<h2>Elite uprising</h2>
<p>The violence has been widely seen as an expression of anger and frustration by people living in poverty, which has been much worsened in South Africa by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-pandemic-has-triggered-a-rise-in-hunger-in-south-africa-164581">impact of COVID-19</a>. But there was no revolt of the poor – it was an assault on democracy by elites. </p>
<p>The KwaZulu-Natal violence was frighteningly new because much of it did not follow the familiar pattern of conflict in South Africa and other countries. While there was looting, a common response to conflict by people living in poverty, there was also an assault on infrastructure, destruction of businesses and the “disappearance” of <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/unrestsa-more-than-a-million-bullets-stolen-from-container-in-durban-most-still-missing-20210716">large stocks of bullets</a>. None of this squares with what we might expect people fighting poverty to do during a conflict.</p>
<p>Nor was the violence a popular uprising. There were no large public demonstrations. The scale of the KwaZulu-Natal violence was huge but you don’t need many people to set fire to electricity installations or factories. The damage could have been done with minimal public support and almost certainly was. This was an uprising of elites, not of the people, although some joined the looting as we would expect people in poverty to do. </p>
<p>Ironically, the claims that this was about poverty or the COVID-19 lockdown blame the people for something the elites did.</p>
<p>But which elites? It will take a while before we know exactly what happened. But there are two elements in reports of the violence which suggest that it was a product of realities which have been evident to researchers for years.</p>
<p>First, although South Africa’s democracy is the product of a <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/The_Small_Miracle.html?id=GSMvAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">negotiated settlement</a>, it followed armed conflict between the minority government and the forces fighting for majority rule. This makes the country another example of what some academics call “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4146925">war transitions</a>”: change from one political system to another where there are armed people on both sides of the divide.</p>
<p>In these cases, the textbook idea that <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190679545.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780190679545-e-13">only the state uses violence</a> and does this within rules which are clear to all does not apply. Some people still have weapons and armed networks, whether they are inside or outside the government, and are not necessarily bound by the rules.</p>
<h2>Unsettling reality</h2>
<p>This has been a South African reality since 1994. It shows in constant factional battles between state intelligence operatives, in divisions between ex-combatants <a href="https://www.news24.com/witness/news/mkmva-defies-anc-call-to-disband-20210706">in the fight against apartheid</a>, in security companies and criminal gangs whose members bore arms before 1994. </p>
<p>Their political loyalties may lie with members of the faction, not the governing party, let alone the state. Their networks may be devoted not only to a common political goal but also to gaining wealth and economic influence. This has made keeping order far more difficult. It can also make creating disorder easier.</p>
<p>The second is that local councillors allegedly played an important role in the violence. This too would reflect a long-standing reality. Attention to corruption in South Africa focuses on national government, but local and regional networks devoted to getting richer at public expense are far more deep-rooted. There is a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-17-this-is-us-those-trying-to-tear-south-africa-apart/">clear link</a> between them and violence – KwaZulu-Natal in particular has seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-fails-to-get-to-the-bottom-of-killings-in-kwazulu-natal-128167">repeated killings of councillors or local officials</a> who tried to resist corruption.</p>
<p>Both the people under arms and the local networks had ample reason to mobilise their power for harm – Zuma’s imprisonment may well have signalled that power had shifted in ways which threatened the survival of the networks. They may not have been trying an insurrection, which means they were trying to seize power. But they were doing whatever they could to ensure that their networks survived.</p>
<h2>Unfinished business</h2>
<p>So, while the scale of the violence may have been new, its origins are not. They are deeply embedded in South Africa’s unfinished business, its inability to create a single source of public order or to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-corruption-in-south-africa-isnt-simply-about-zuma-and-the-guptas-113056">change an economic balance of power</a> which ensures that ambitious people with the means to destroy see their networks as the only route to wealth.</p>
<p>The violence wreaked its damage because South Africa’s journey to democracy remains incomplete. It sends a sharp message that the country must look its past far more squarely in the eye and find ways to change it before it can be confident about avoiding more of what happened in KwaZulu-Natal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Friedman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The violence wreaked its damage because South Africa’s journey to democracy remains incomplete. It sends a sharp message that the country must look its past far more squarely in the eye.Steven Friedman, Professor of Political Studies, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483202020-10-20T14:56:16Z2020-10-20T14:56:16ZWhy #EndSARS protests are different, and what lessons they hold for Nigeria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364326/original/file-20201019-23-9um7zg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigerian youths protest against police brutality.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Olukayode Jaiyeola/NurPhoto via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1992, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/nigeria-sars-police-robbery-end-sars/2020/10/10/999e2400-0a48-11eb-991c-be6ead8c4018_story.html">Special Anti-Robbery Squad</a> was set up by the Commissioner for Police to curb a spate of armed robberies in Nigeria. By 2009 it had become a large and powerful unit, and its focus expanded beyond armed robbers to internet fraudsters. It had also become largely <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54499497">uncontrolled</a>. </p>
<p>Members of the unit were allowed to carry guns, drive unmarked cars and operate without badges or uniform. They became known for their <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nigeria-disbands-notorious-police-unit-after-mass-protests-11602443607">violent harassment</a> of innocent young Nigerians. They also <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2020/10/09/how-sars-robbed-me-yele-bademosi-ceo-bundle/">forced</a> young Nigerians to withdraw money from ATMS and make transfers under duress. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/251271-endsars-police-mum-nigerians-recount-atrocities-special-anti-robbery-squad.html">numerous examples</a> of people who have been raped, harassed, flogged, extorted, injured or killed by the unit. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/15/nigerians-want-polices-sars-force-scrapped">In 2016 </a> a campaign was launched calling for the Special Anti-Robbery Squad to be disbanded. It became widespread and drew some attention. Within three years the unit had been reformed, overhauled, decentralised and disbanded about <a href="https://twitter.com/AmnestyNigeria/status/1314697299235348480">three or four times</a>. But without success. </p>
<p>Then in early October the <a href="https://qz.com/africa/1915472/endsars-young-nigerian-protest-rogue-police-unit/">first protests</a> started against the infamous police squad. Mostly young Nigerians gathered in the front of the House of Assembly in Lagos State to demand the end of the unit. Within days thousands of protesters had gathered in 100 cities around the world, with the #EndSARS <a href="https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-54588788">trending globally</a>. </p>
<p>The government <a href="https://www.pulse.ng/news/local/igp-disbands-sars-nationwide/l86hxre">announced</a> on October 11 that, yet again, it was disbanding the Special Anti-Robbery Squad. But the protesters have not let up. They are now calling for <a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2020/10/16/endsars-protesters-at-alausa-maintain-tempo-after-days-of-protest/amp/?_%20_twitter_impression=true">wider reforms</a> of the police. Adejuwon Soyinka asked Damilola Agbalajobi to explain why these protests are different and what their political implications could be.</p>
<h2>What makes these protests different?</h2>
<p>Firstly, the protest is not just about the Special Anti-Robbery Squad. It’s the result of <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2020/10/14/endsars-protests-why-this-is-different/">pent-up anger</a> over the dehumanising policies of government, maladministration, injustice, hunger as well as high energy and fuel prices.</p>
<p>The cumulative effect of these roll into one. That’s why the protesters have refused to end their action. It seems this is seen as a once in a lifetime opportunity to address critical national injustices. </p>
<p>This generation of young Nigerians are doing a good job. There is good coordination, arrangements have been made for food and water as well as music to keep them busy. They have medical personnel on standby, ambulances and mobile toilets for convenience. They have also hired private security (bouncers) for protection, raised money and ensured properties are safe.</p>
<p>They have also made it clear that they have no leader. This could be the result of mistrust of past leaders. </p>
<p>Nigeria is said to be the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/26/africa/nigeria-overtakes-india-extreme-poverty-intl/index.html">poverty capital of the world</a>. Yet young Nigerians have been protesting for over a week across the country without looting shops. They have ensured that the streets are cleaned after the day’s protest and that there’s no violence or lawlessness. </p>
<p>Another key factor that makes this protest unique is the use of social media. The way this has helped mobilise protesters is unprecedented.</p>
<h2>Why have the protests been driven by young Nigerians?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-08/nigerian-population-hits-182-million-with-widening-youth-bulge">Over 70%</a> of the population is under 30 years of age. <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2020/08/14/13-9-million-nigerian-youth-are-unemployed-as-at-q2-2020-nbs/">Unemployment</a> stood at 21.7 million in the second quarter of 2020. The youth account for 13.9 million of this.</p>
<p>Young Nigerians are, therefore, most affected by government policies that have led to a lack of jobs and meaningful sources for livelihood. Other triggers include the lavish lifestyle of political leaders. The government budgets more money for the members of the National Assembly than for health and education. </p>
<h2>Are there important lessons from this protest?</h2>
<p>One takeaway is that a new social contract is being written. Nigerians are creating a new understanding of how leaders and public servants should relate to citizens.</p>
<p>Secondly, the youth are reinventing governance in Nigeria and bringing about a new culture of asserting rights among the citizenry. </p>
<h2>Most of the protesters have never experienced military rule. Is this material?</h2>
<p>The 30% of Nigerian who are adults and have experienced military rule seem to have that etched deep into their psyche. They are afraid of a man in uniform. This has become a part of Nigerians’ conditioning. </p>
<p>However, the youth believe that the men in uniform are meant to serve the citizens and to protect them. It is a different relationship entirely. Young people are more exposed to the fact that things could be better and are ready to take their destiny into their own hands. They want to reinvent the country and to be a better place to live. </p>
<p>Their access to the internet also informs their action. They are able to reach the world from their bedroom. </p>
<h2>Is the history of Nigeria’s military rule fading?</h2>
<p>The history and experience Nigeria had during the military era doesn’t resonate as much with young Nigerians. But, they must have read history and are, therefore, not unfamiliar with the past. But they have proven not to be deterred by the use of force of any kind. </p>
<h2>Has political exclusion of the young people played a role?</h2>
<p>For many years, Nigeria has been ruled by leaders who are quite elderly. These have not succeeded in finding solutions to the nation’s challenges. Corruption and hunger are rife. It is obvious that young Nigerians feel alienated and are now ready to take the bull by the horns and ensure good governance. </p>
<h2>What are the likely political implications of the protests?</h2>
<p>Politicians and leaders are waking up to a new politically conscious society. Take the comment from Chairman Nigeria’s Governors Forum, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2020/10/15/in-areas-where-f-sars-are-effective-we-should-allow-them-work-fayemi/">There is nothing wrong</a> in what the young people are doing. I think we should encourage them to ask more questions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Various state governments are beginning to see how important it is to have a good relationship with young people. Given the awakening of this new political consciousness, it will not be business as usual for the country’s political leaders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Damilola Agbalajobi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Although the Nigerian government has announced the disbanding of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad, protesters have not let up. They are now calling for wider reforms.Damilola Agbalajobi, Lecturer, Political Science, Obafemi Awolowo UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1081422018-12-05T11:16:41Z2018-12-05T11:16:41ZMadagascar: fear and violence making rainforest conservation more challenging than ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248995/original/file-20181205-186076-1462ryd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ranomafana National Park.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/search?searchterm=ranomafana+national+park&search_source=base_search_form&language=en&page=1&sort=popular&image_type=all&measurement=px&safe=true">LouieLea/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>People are too afraid to return to the village so they are sleeping in the forest or have left altogether. They have lost their stored grain and all their belongings. I don’t know how they will get by.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These are the words of Riana*, a young woman from Bevoahazo, a tiny village in the eastern rainforests of Madagascar. Bevoahazo sits on the edge of Ranomafana National Park in a <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1257">UNESCO world heritage site</a> teeming with endangered and endemic species. Security in the area <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/conservation-in-a-weak-state-madagascar-struggles-with-enforcement/">has been deteriorating</a> over the last few years but things have escalated recently.</p>
<p>On November 24, 50 men raided the village stealing stores of rice – vital food reserves for local people who are mostly subsistence farmers – and injuring anyone who tried to defend their property. A few days later the local police chief, <a href="https://www.lexpressmada.com/29/11/2018/ranomafana-des-dahalo-tuent-le-commandant-de-brigade/">Heritiana Emilson Rambeloson</a>, who had come to the area with a small team to investigate, was shot dead.</p>
<p>I spent two years living in Bevoahazo in the early 2000s while researching the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00269.x-i1">sustainability of crayfish harvesting</a>. I have spoken to friends from the village who are are currently staying in the nearby town of Ranomafana for safety, and researchers in the area to get a better understanding of what is happening. </p>
<h2>Bandits and biodiversity</h2>
<p>Patricia Wright, a professor of anthropology, has spent more than 30 years working in Ranomafana. She directs the <a href="https://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/centre-valbio/">Centre Valbio</a>, an internationally renowned conservation research centre situated on the edge of the forest. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The security situation is at crisis point. This is leading to real human suffering in one of the most important places for biodiversity on the planet. The [murdered policeman] was smart, dedicated to his job and was interested in wildlife and the importance of the forest. A genuine friend. We will miss him.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The recent death comes just months after a member of Valbio staff was killed by bandits. Jean François Xavier Razafindraibe <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2018/08/bandits-raid-village-near-madagascar-park-killing-conservation-worker/">was killed</a> when armed men raided his village close to the park entrance in June 2018.</p>
<p>Ranomafana National Park was established by the Malagasy government <a href="https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20033127502">to protect its globally important biodiversity</a>. As part of the <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1257">Forests of Atsinanana</a> it is home to a number of critically endangered endemic lemurs such as the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/9672/16119513">golden bamboo lemur</a> and the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22918/16121857">black-and-white ruffed lemur</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248729/original/file-20181204-34134-1gp9xs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248729/original/file-20181204-34134-1gp9xs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248729/original/file-20181204-34134-1gp9xs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248729/original/file-20181204-34134-1gp9xs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248729/original/file-20181204-34134-1gp9xs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248729/original/file-20181204-34134-1gp9xs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248729/original/file-20181204-34134-1gp9xs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ranomafana National Park is home to the critically endangered black-and-white ruffed lemur.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Burgas</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ranomafana is a popular tourist spot in Madagascar with stunning scenery, rare wildlife and the friendly, sleepy town nearby. So far the insecurity hasn’t influenced tourism. As Wright says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The bandits steer clear of tourists, but the villagers are living a life of fear.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Gold mining’s dark influence</h2>
<p><a href="http://blog.khbannarmartin.com/?p=238">Miners</a> panning for gold illegally in the forest interior are a source of the insecurity. This has been an ongoing issue for many years but has become much more difficult for the park authorities to control. The miners <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/conservation-in-a-weak-state-madagascar-struggles-with-enforcement/">pollute rivers</a>, clear the rare swamp forest and hunt endangered wildlife for meat.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248741/original/file-20181204-34148-1tfj8k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248741/original/file-20181204-34148-1tfj8k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248741/original/file-20181204-34148-1tfj8k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248741/original/file-20181204-34148-1tfj8k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248741/original/file-20181204-34148-1tfj8k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248741/original/file-20181204-34148-1tfj8k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248741/original/file-20181204-34148-1tfj8k.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Illegal gold miners in the forest are thought to be the source of the raids.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ricardo Rocha</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The situation is complicated. Armed cattle thieves known as <a href="http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20180623-madagascar-difficile-lutte-contre-le-vol-zebus"><em>dahalo</em></a> are causing havoc in many areas of Madagascar. A recent estimate suggests they have caused <a href="http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20180623-madagascar-difficile-lutte-contre-le-vol-zebus">4,000 deaths</a> in the last five years alone.</p>
<p>In 2017, the mayor of the neighbouring town of Ambalakindresy, Elysé Arsène Ratsimbazafy, was shot dead in what is <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/conservation-in-a-weak-state-madagascar-struggles-with-enforcement/">widely believed to have been a hit</a>. He had run for election on a platform of ridding the town of the bandits and had cooperated with efforts to get the miners expelled from the national park interior.</p>
<p>Mar Cabeza, a professor of biology at the University of Helsinki, returned from the area a few days ago. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The gold mining has escalated in recent years and differs greatly from previous subsistence-related threats. The widespread fear has negatively affected both research and conservation management.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>One of Cabeza’s PhD students, Marketta Vuola, was meant to conduct research in the attacked villages recently, but was warned of the danger and moved to another village. Vuola told me </p>
<blockquote>
<p>News spread fast, with all villages in the region being afraid. We spent last night hiding, with our day packs ready to escape to the forest.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There has been a robust response to the recent series of attacks. The district quickly sent reinforcements of 80 police. This will hopefully reassure the local population, allowing people to return to their village, and will reduce the immediate threat.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/animals-are-victims-of-human-conflict-so-can-conservation-help-build-peace-in-warzones-90045">Animals are victims of human conflict, so can conservation help build peace in warzones?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This reassurance is essential as my old friend Koto* told me over the phone: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>People need to be able to get back home to tend their crops; if they can’t do this they will suffer even more.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However the rise in insecurity reflects a wider problem of respect for the rule of law in Madagascar. Jonah Ratsimbazafy, a professor of paleontology at the University of Antananarivo in Madagascar, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If you focus on what is happening, then you will lose your hope for Madagascar. We must focus on the solutions. Good governance is crucial in order to develop the economy of Madagascar and for saving the irreplaceable biodiversity.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/former-madagascar-presidents-to-contest-run-off-vote-18304151">Madagascar will elect a new president on December 19</a>. People in Bevoahazo, and throughout Madagascar, are hoping that the new government can bring the change so desperately needed.</p>
<p><em>*Names changed to protect identities.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia P G Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent spate of attacks have left local people scared for their safety in rural Madagascar, threatening vital conservation work in the nearby rainforest.Julia P G Jones, Professor of Conservation Science, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/386252015-03-17T14:24:50Z2015-03-17T14:24:50ZRussia and the Arctic: crunch call on Moscow’s territory claim is fast approaching<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74941/original/image-20150316-9201-5mbtk1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pole position: the resource-rich Arctic matters like never before</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/duncan/478986989/in/photolist-JjW9n-p8EfKC-pq7Y8y-6EbNvg-4zE62j-cpuaAf-96nWwt-912S2Q-4hH3Lr-4c4oeQ-pi3xd2-prXz69-pZ9wMM-q2u5gY-o4DYJ5-brtcna-bpBAw6-igXTHg-ox4Uzm-bbf1kv-aFvfUz-d1ZVa-pd2BJa-oRU4DV-kQ1Jwg-6xAhXY-p4zDu-rq2XNt-qmTMXo-pV67go-pdr6VE-bZMmah-rm3hm8-6MneV2-acMev-qhZhoT-q9Kc1E-df6iuS-aFvcKz-9iqMUa-5Nx72b-rh6rLc-pzypw4-nLUNbc-bZMwA3-qKY2H5-qJkNN3-bswzFK-o2J6YJ-it7XCC">Duncan C</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tensions have increased a notch in the Arctic with the news that the Russians <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/16/us-russia-military-exercises-idUSKBN0MC0JO20150316">have started</a> a major military exercise in the region. Nearly 40,000 servicemen, 41 warships and 15 submarines will be taking part in drills to make them combat-ready – a major show of strength in an area that has long been an area of strategic interest to Russia.</p>
<p>Russia might be reshaping national borders in Europe as it reasserts its geopolitical influence, but the equivalent borders in the Arctic have never been firmly established. Historically it has proven much harder for states to assert sovereignty over the ocean than over land, even in cases where waters are ice-covered for most of the year. </p>
<p>For centuries the extent to which a nation state could control its coastal areas was based on the so-called <a href="http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095546425">cannon-shot rule</a> – a three-nautical-mile limit based on the range of a cannon fired from the land. But this changed after World War II, leading to the <a href="http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf">United Nations Law of the Sea Convention</a> (UNCLOS) in 1982. </p>
<p>Under UNCLOS, every signatory was given the right to declare territorial waters up to 12 nautical miles and an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of up to 200 for commercial activities such as fishing and oil exploration. Signatories could also extend their sovereignty beyond the limits of this EEZ by up to an additional 150 nautical miles if they could prove that their continental shelves extended beyond 200 nautical miles from the shore.</p>
<h2>Orderly settlement</h2>
<p>It is quite common to read about a “scramble for the Arctic” in which the states concerned – Denmark, Norway, Canada, Russia and the US – race to carve up the region between themselves. In fact, this is not a very accurate description. </p>
<p>There are two dimensions to developments in the region – one legal and the other political. In legal terms, these five littoral states have sought to use UNCLOS to establish borders and assert their primacy over much of the Arctic Ocean and the seabed below (with the exception of the US, which is yet to ratify the convention). </p>
<p>Canada and Russia have also used the special provisions provided by <a href="http://www.arcticgovernance.org/unclos-article-234.4668244-142904.html">Article 234 of UNCLOS</a> – relating to the right to regulate over ice-covered waters – to strengthen their authority over emerging Arctic shipping routes (the <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/420084/Northwest-Passage">Northwest Passage</a> and the <a href="http://www.fni.no/doc&pdf/clr-norden-nsr-en.pdf">Northern Sea Route</a>). </p>
<p>In 2008 the five states issued the <a href="http://www.arcticgovernance.org/the-ilulissat-declaration.4872424.html">Ilulissat Declaration</a>, committing to the “orderly settlement of any possible overlapping claims” using the legal framework provided by the law of the sea. This has been reflected in the continental-shelf claims they have submitted to the UN over the past 15 years: <a href="http://www.un.org/press/en/2001/sea1729.doc.htm">Russia (2001)</a>, <a href="http://www.un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/submission_nor.htm">Norway (2006)</a>, <a href="http://www.un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/submission_can_70_2013.htm">Canada (2013)</a> and <a href="http://www.un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/submission_dnk_76_2014.htm">Denmark (2014)</a>. </p>
<p>These submissions are all claims for an extension of exclusive rights to continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles from each land border. This leaves a small area in the central Arctic Ocean unclaimed but also <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b7e66b1c-8442-11e4-8cc5-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3U5a9fedE">raises issues</a> about various territories where more than one state has posted a claim (see graphic below). </p>
<p>Among the claimants, Russia <a href="http://www.asil.org/insights/volume/11/issue/27/russias-claim-arctic-and-vexing-issue-ridges-unclos">has been asked</a> by the UN to submit further scientific evidence in support of its case. This has not yet happened to the other states, but since it will take time for their claims to be assessed, this may yet change. Until the US ratifies UNCLOS, it can’t submit a claim.</p>
<p><strong>Arctic claims (click to enlarge – or <a href="https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/ibru/resources/ibru_arctic_map_27-02-15.pdf">see original</a>)</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75219/original/image-20150318-2487-tz3b48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/ibru/resources/ibru_arctic_map_27-02-15.pdf">IBRU University of Durham</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Insecure borders</h2>
<p>Yet legal provisions only go so far. The question remains: what happens if the Arctic states become more assertive in the delimitation of their national borders? </p>
<p><a href="http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/researchpublications/prb0813-e.htm#securitylandscape">Canada</a> and Denmark have made significant commitments to backing up their claims, including developing new security strategies. In 2012 <a href="http://archive.defensenews.com/article/20131008/DEFREG01/310080012/Denmark-Boosts-Resources-Arctic-Security">Denmark established</a> a specialised military command to police its Arctic territories, for instance. But over the last decade, it is Russia <a href="http://books.sipri.org/product_info?c_product_id=442">that has advanced</a> the most significant plans for building up its security forces in the region – even before its most recent exercises began. </p>
<p>In material terms, Russia currently has the most to gain from industrially developing its Arctic zone. The Russian Arctic contains significant reserves of hydrocarbons, diamonds, metals and other minerals with an <a href="http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/07925.pdf">estimated value</a> of more than $22.4tn (£15.2tn). The area is already a major producer of rare and precious metals and important <a href="http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/text/speeches/2008/09/17/1945_type82912type82913_206564.shtml">oil and gas fields</a>. </p>
<p>This makes it easy to see why the Kremlin <a href="http://www.arctis-search.com/Russian+Federation+Policy+for+the+Arctic+to+2020">announced in 2008</a> that it will use the Arctic zone as a “strategic resource base” for the socio-economic development of Russia in the 21st century. In 2013 the Kremlin further observed that such development would be heavily dependent on foreign investment, technology and expertise.</p>
<p>Yet this apparent openness to international business interests has been accompanied by an intense sense of insecurity about Russia maintaining influence and authority in the region. It is wary of a Western bloc forming within the <a href="http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/">Arctic Council</a> (the five littoral states plus Finland, Iceland and Sweden) and has preferred to engage the other Arctic states on a bilateral or regional basis. Russia is particularly concerned about the potential for the EU and NATO to become more active in Arctic affairs, given that all of the other Arctic states are members of one or both of these organisations.</p>
<p>Vladimir Putin has <a href="http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/0069-putin-stresses-russia-has-no-plans-to-militarise-the-arctic/">spoken publicly</a> about the need to keep tensions to a minimum in the Arctic, while embarking on its extensive military and security programme in the region at the same time – not least <a href="http://barentsobserver.com/en/security/2014/11/russian-arctic-command-december-1st-25-11">establishing</a> a new Arctic strategic command last December. </p>
<p>The Kremlin showed in its <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24170129">response to</a> the “Greenpeace 30”, who tried to seize a Russian oil platform in 2013, that it will not tolerate any threat to its economic activities in the Arctic, nor allow any precedent that might undermine its authority over what it essentially regards as its territorial waters. </p>
<h2>Future uncertainties</h2>
<p>Russia <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-to-apply-for-arctic-territory-with-un-in-2015/510346.html">will submit</a> a new claim for the extension of its outer continental shelf to the UN in 2015 (encompassing an area of roughly 1.2m sqkm). Already state officials in Russia <a href="http://rt.com/news/200555-ussia-arctic-shelf-un/#.VFH3jJnONEI.twitter">are positioning</a> the situation as a test of whether the international scientific community will accept Russian science. </p>
<p>A second rejection of Russian claims in the Arctic might further feed Russian concerns about being kept down and encircled by Western rivals. On the other hand, if Russia’s claim is accepted, the rest of the international community might quite rightly become concerned about how the Kremlin will exert its authority within such significantly expanded borders in the Arctic. </p>
<p>The deterioration in Russia’s relations with the West is only likely to up the stakes for the Kremlin when it comes to settling its maritime borders in the Arctic. Russia has remained engaged in the Arctic Council and has repeatedly <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/putin-understands-canadas-concerns-on-arctic-sovereignty/article18834927/">called for</a> the Arctic to remain insulated from the fallout from Ukraine. Yet in the coming years, Russia’s neighbours are likely to remain wary about how exactly the Kremlin plans to negotiate and secure its borders along its Arctic frontier. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>To read instalments from our Russia’s borders series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/search?q=russia%27s+borders">click here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council from 2011-2014 for research on Arctic geopolitics. He is also an Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute.</span></em></p>As the ice recedes and technology for recovering resources in extreme conditions improves, the Arctic could become the theatre for future global conflicts. Here’s the story so far.Duncan Depledge, Postdoctoral researcher, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/257722014-04-18T08:18:40Z2014-04-18T08:18:40ZUkraine clashes raise stakes in struggle to control the Donbas<p>It is the most serious conflagration since armed pro-Russian forces began taking control of official buildings in the Donbas. At least one anti-government protester is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/fatal-clashes-ukrainian-military-base">believed to have been shot dead</a> by Ukranian national guard soldiers. Hundreds of pro-Russian supporters had been trying to persuade the troops to switch sides at their base in Mariupol on the Azov Sea coast south of Donetsk. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/euromaidan-ukraine%E2%80%99s-self-organizing-revolution">Euromaidan revolution in Kiev</a> showed just how quickly events can spiral out of control once government forces start killing their own people. It is possible that the shootings in Mariupol will polarise opinion and act as a tipping point further alienating public opinion in the Donbas against the Kiev authorities. Equally, despite its diplomatic isolation and the risk of further sanctions, Russia may conclude it has little to lose by intervening further in the region.</p>
<p>That last possibility may at least look a little further off after negotiators in Geneva managed to deliver <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu">agreements designed to quell the tension</a>. How long those agreements will hold is, of course, tough to tell.</p>
<p>The Mariupol confrontation took place just a few hours after the Donetsk regional branch of <a href="http://partyofregions.ua/en/">Party of the Regions of Ukraine</a> (PRU) held an extraordinary general meeting of its regional and local representatives at the Druzhba ice hockey stadium in central Donetsk. The aim was to unite the party around a clear official policy on the region’s relationship with Kiev. Standing in front of a stage that was adorned by the party’s key messages – “Strong Donbas”, “United Ukraine”, “Donbas without Weapons” – the delegates stood for the Ukrainian national anthem. But not one Ukrainian flag could be seen flying in the hall. </p>
<p>The congress concluded with a show of hands for a resolution demanding the decentralisation of powers from Kiev to the regions. The Party of the Regions in Donetsk wants a national referendum on making Russian a second official language throughout the country. It also wants the parliament in Kiev to amend the constitution (which would require at least 300 votes) to replace governors with directly elected heads of regional councils and to transfer power and budgets from regional and local state administrations to regional and local councils. The party also demands devolution of fiscal and education policy to the regions.</p>
<h2>Seeking moderation</h2>
<p>In addition the resolution called for a cessation of “illegal” attempts by the Kiev authorities to supress peaceful protestors and for the armed occupations of official buildings in the region by the pro-Russian movement to be ended in return for the granting of legal immunity to protesters. Notably the resolution does not refer to the federalisation of the country, which is also a Russian ambition, and omits the demand that the Kiev parliament give the regional council the right to stage a local referendum on the status of the region. </p>
<p>This attempt to unite PRU around a moderate position of decentralisation within a unitary Ukraine came a day after the largest company in the Donbas (and in the whole of Ukraine), the <a href="http://www.scmholding.com/">System Capital Management</a> (SCM) conglomerate owned by local tycoon Rinat Akhmetov, issued a statement in support of a “united, indivisible and independent Ukraine” signed on behalf of the directors of its largest industrial holdings in the region. It echoed a similar statement made by Rinat Akhmetov himself a day earlier.</p>
<p>It is clear that the Party of the Regions and System Capital are trying to reassert their authority in the region in response to the escalation of pro-Russian action by articulating a moderate position which should elicit sympathy in Kiev. However, it remains to be seen whether the party and SCM currently control the Donbas. There is a widespread opinion among the Maidan revolutionaries that the regional elite in the Donbas have been contributing (along with Russia) to the destabilisation of east Ukraine for tactical reasons. It is surmised that the elite wish to use the threat of forging closer relations with Russia as a bargaining chip to curry favour in Kiev in particular to stave off the reprivatisation of assets and/or the lustration of officials associated with the deposed former government. </p>
<p>Internal destabilisation may also be seen as a means of securing the sympathy of Russia which is needed by the elite to retain its economic and political power in the region. Destabilisation might also be designed to cultivate fear among the region’s population which is therefore more willing to trust the elite to protect them from incursions either from Kiev and/or Russia than they would otherwise be.</p>
<p>However, it is equally plausible that the political and economic elites have lost control of events in the region and that the revolutionaries in Kiev ascribe too much power to them. In other words does the elite’s united policy for decentralisation within a unitary Ukraine chime with public opinion in the region?</p>
<h2>Divided and volatile</h2>
<p>Opinion polls can be read in multiple ways but a recent poll by the Democratic Initiatives Fund conducted in the second half of March suggests that only just over 50% of residents in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces were categorically against independence or unity with another country. This means that although the poll showed only 16% of residents of the two oblasts wanted independence and only 24% wanted to unite with another country, there is a large number of people who do not have a fixed opinion. </p>
<p>Given that an earlier poll for the International Republican Institute (IRI) showed that more than 70% of residents in four eastern regions, including Donetsk and Luhansk, were opposed to the new government in Kiev, the evidence suggests that public opinion is divided and volatile. Moreover, the internal divisions within PRU are sure to continue. The passing of the resolution at the congress was greeted with heckling and dissent from delegates many of whom want a referendum on federalism before the presidential elections. </p>
<p>Equally, it is possible that Akhemtov and his company are not as influential over its ranks of managers and employees as is commonly supposed. However, in the immediate future the question is whether the home grown pro-Russian movement, apparently supported by Russia, gains sympathy as a result of the clashes with Kiev’s forces. If so the result could see it sabotage any potential compromise between the Donbas and Kiev. </p>
<p>There are two dangerous antagonistic dynamics operating within the wider country: a new government in Kiev increasingly hostile to Russia and a movement in the Donbas which is increasingly hostile to Kiev.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Swain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is the most serious conflagration since armed pro-Russian forces began taking control of official buildings in the Donbas. At least one anti-government protester is believed to have been shot dead by…Adam Swain, Associate Professor, School of Geography, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/16512011-06-06T04:29:49Z2011-06-06T04:29:49ZHow Spanish outrage could transform Europe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1523/original/spain_aap_pic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C51%2C3762%2C2525&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The protest which started here in the Puerta del Sol in Madrid in mid-May has now swept throughout Spain.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Pedro Armestre</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On 15 May 2011, one week before Spanish regional and municipal elections, young people gathered on Madrid’s Puerta del Sol square to start a protest known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Spanish_protests">15-M movement</a>. </p>
<p>It has since acquired a universal meaning, both locally by reaching out to people from various social groups, and worldwide, by gathering support in other cities in Europe and in Latin America. </p>
<p>Interestingly, it is sometimes referred to as a new Spanish Revolution by the media and by the protesters themselves in a flurry of creative posters, even comparing it to the Bastille.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1518/original/Spain_2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1518/original/Spain_2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1518/original/Spain_2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1518/original/Spain_2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1518/original/Spain_2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1518/original/Spain_2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1518/original/Spain_2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">’Sol is the new Bastille’, declares this poster in Madrid. Photo Aleksandra Hadzelek.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet the storming of the Bastille has always been a symbol of the destruction and fall of the old system, with a new economic, social and political era growing on its ruins.</p>
<p>Sol, on the other hand, symbolizes a need to change and repair our existing world; as a starting point, it demands a more participatory democracy. </p>
<p>It appears to be a protest against the current bipartisan political system, not an anti-system protest, and is conducted in a peaceful atmosphere, rejecting all forms of violence.</p>
<h2>Logrono</h2>
<p>A 60-year old participant in Logrono, who came to the demonstrations on 27 May with her husband and daughter, believes that the essence of the protest is not to reject altogether a system based on political parties and elections. But rather she wants to voice disapproval against problems within the structure of the current system. “The youth do not connect with the agendas of the current political parties”, she explained, and do not consider themselves properly represented by the current political system. </p>
<p>This was confirmed by David, a young leader of the occupants of the main square in Zaragoza, who is fighting not against the state, but to reclaim the state for the people. </p>
<p>According to the published manifestos and the multitude of posters glued onto every surface available in the vicinity of the gatherings, the participants are protesting also against economic inequality, social polarization, growing differences between the rich and the poor, and lack of jobs. </p>
<p>This is especially relevant for the young generation, both for those with a higher education who are becoming gradually more aware of their power and role in society, and the working class youth crippled by unemployment. </p>
<h2>Zaragoza</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1521/original/Spain_5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1521/original/Spain_5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1521/original/Spain_5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1521/original/Spain_5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1521/original/Spain_5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1521/original/Spain_5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1521/original/Spain_5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The camp in Zaragoza. Photo Aleksandra Hadzelek.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“We want a dignified life”, said 20-year old Javi, one of the protesters in Zaragoza on 25 May. “I don’t want to be here, I would prefer to be at work”. But he doesn’t have a job or any prospects of getting one, with youth unemployment in Spain at an all-time high of 42%. </p>
<p>David believes that “change is possible, there is no doubt”. He sees his role as a representative of “generation 2000” as that of “breaking with history and creating something new.” </p>
<p>This view was reflected in some innovative posters pointing out to the need to replace a system that is broken by one that works.</p>
<h2>The face of outrage</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1517/original/Spain_3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/1517/original/Spain_3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1517/original/Spain_3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1517/original/Spain_3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1517/original/Spain_3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1517/original/Spain_3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/1517/original/Spain_3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">’We are not anti-system, the system is anti-us’. Poster in Logrono. Photo Aleksandra Hadzelek.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While observing the demonstrations across Spain, I couldn’t help but notice, and be impressed by, the presence of people of all ages: young couples with small children, middle aged people of all walks of life, as well as older people, all joined the ranks of the “outraged” (after <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Time-Outrage-St%C3%A9phane-Hessel/dp/0704372223">Stéphane Hessel’s pamphlet</a>). </p>
<p>It seems that this movement has transcended generational, economic and ideological divisions, most likely, in my opinion, thanks to its pacifist principles. </p>
<p>It is operating out of a need for reform that the whole of the society can understand and identify with. </p>
<p>That need is not yet matched by a uniform proposal on how to proceed, but intensive discussions and negotiations are taking place on all main squares across the country as well as in cyberspace, in the true spirit of participatory democracy that the protesters are fighting for. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/los-espanoles-identifican-con-los-indignados-pero-creen-que-logren-cambios-1030824">latest public opinion poll</a> published on 4 June 2011 indicates that 64.1% of Spaniards agree with the demands of the 15-M movement.</p>
<p>It is very encouraging to see such peaceful approach (evolutionary rather than revolutionary) of the new generation to reform the current system into one that would be friendly to the whole of the society and each individual in their own right. </p>
<p>If the movement succeeds at elaborating an agenda of feasible reforms, it could lead to new structural solutions for contemporary western European democracies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/1651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aleksandra Hadzelek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On 15 May 2011, one week before Spanish regional and municipal elections, young people gathered on Madrid’s Puerta del Sol square to start a protest known as 15-M movement. It has since acquired a universal…Aleksandra Hadzelek, Lecturer in Social and Political Change, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.