tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/us-mexico-relationship-35667/articlesUS-Mexico Relationship – The Conversation2019-07-03T13:04:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1144792019-07-03T13:04:36Z2019-07-03T13:04:36ZMexicans in US routinely confront legal abuse, racial profiling, ICE targeting and other civil rights violations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281444/original/file-20190626-76722-1o2gl80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The civil rights of 11.3 million Mexican nationals who live in the US are routinely violated, according to a comprehensive new report on U.S. immigration enforcement since 2009.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Arizona-Immigration/191bc70a2f7a4f84a8cfc93dd7885e9d/37/0">AP Photo/Matt York</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Officially, the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv">Constitution of the United States</a> gives everyone on U.S. soil equal protection under the law – regardless of nationality or legal status. </p>
<p>But, as recent stories of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/25/us/john-sanders-cbp.html">neglectful treatment of migrant children in government detention centers</a> demonstrate, these <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/duklr59&div=52&id=&page=">civil rights</a> are not always granted to immigrants.</p>
<p>We are scholars focused on U.S.-Mexico migration. Our <a href="http://ccis.ucsd.edu/_files/conference_papers_present/CNDH-final-3.4.19.pdf">report on the enforcement of U.S. immigration law under presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump</a>, presented in February to Mexico’s <a href="http://www.cndh.org.mx">National Human Rights Commission</a>, documented pervasive and systematic civil rights violations against Mexicans living in the United States. </p>
<p>Some of the abuses we documented – which include racial profiling, discriminatory treatment and due process violations – result from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-zero-tolerance-immigration-policy-still-violating-fundamental-human-rights-laws-98615">Trump administration’s anti-immigration policies</a>. Others <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-immigration-policies-will-pick-up-where-obamas-left-off-70187">began much earlier</a>, under Obama or well before. </p>
<p>All paint a troubling picture about the rule of law in the United States and the challenges facing America’s largest immigrant group.</p>
<h2>Discrimination and deportation</h2>
<p>An estimated <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/mexican-immigrants-united-states">11.3 million</a> people born in Mexico now live in the United States – 3% of the total U.S. population. </p>
<p>About 5 million of them are unauthorized immigrants, meaning Mexicans <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/12/us-unauthorized-immigrant-population-2017/">make up just under half</a> of the 10.5 million undocumented immigrants in the country. The other <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/12/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/">6.3 million Mexicans in the U.S.</a> are either lawful permanent residents or dual nationals who are naturalized U.S. citizens. </p>
<p>Based on these figures, we found, Immigration and Customs Enforcement – or ICE, the agency that carries out the nation’s immigration laws – arrests Mexican immigrants at levels that are <a href="http://ccis.ucsd.edu/_files/conference_papers_present/CNDH-final-3.4.19.pdf">disproportionate</a> to their share of the unauthorized immigrant population. </p>
<p>Roughly 70% of immigrants deported from the U.S. interior in 2015 <a href="https://trac.syr.edu/phptools/immigration/removehistory/">were Mexican</a>, the most recent year that such detailed deportation data are available. </p>
<p>Another 550,000 young Mexican American “Dreamers” – immigrants who were brought to the U.S. unlawfully as children – <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-deporting-the-dreamers-is-immoral-91738">became subject to deportation</a> when Trump in September 2017 rescinded the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which gave them temporary protection from deportation.</p>
<p>Not all deportations violate immigrants’ civil rights. The <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/legal-resources/immigration-and-nationality-act">Immigration and Nationality Act</a> says immigrants may be deported for violating a long list of criminal and administrative laws.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/lst.2013.14">evidence suggests</a> that Mexicans and other Latinos are sometimes targeted for arrest based on their race or ethnicity. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281443/original/file-20190626-76738-1h5yxo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2013 a federal judge ruled that police in Maricopa County, Arizona, were racial profiling Latinos in traffic stops that targeted immigrants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Racial-Profiling-Traffic-Stops/2c5a68d8a5634af7a96cd088f3ab8573/1/0">AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2014, <a href="http://phparivaca.org/?page_id=1174">independent monitors</a> at a Customs and Border Protection checkpoint in Arivaca, Arizona, just north of the U.S.-Mexico border, found that vehicle occupants who appeared to be Latino were 26 times more likely to be asked to show identification than white-looking vehicle occupants, who are frequently waved through the checkpoint. </p>
<p>And in 2012, a U.S. Department of Justice investigation in Alamance County, North Carolina, found that the sheriff had <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article213085749.html">instructed deputies</a> to “go out there and get me some of those taco eaters” by targeting Latinos in traffic stops and other law enforcement activities.</p>
<p>The DOJ <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-releases-investigative-findings-alamance-county-nc-sheriff-s-office">concluded</a> that the county demonstrated an “egregious pattern of racial profiling” – a violation of the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv">14th Amendment</a>, which guarantees everyone equal protection under the law.</p>
<h2>Family separation</h2>
<p>Mexicans in the United States have seen their constitutional rights violated in other ways. </p>
<p>The most egregious example was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-and-sessions-can-end-immigrant-family-separations-without-congress-help-98599">forced separation of families found to have crossed the border illegally</a>. </p>
<p>Under this Trump administration policy, which began in April 2018, at least <a href="https://www.aclu.org/issues/immigrants-rights/immigrants-rights-and-detention/family-separation">2,654 migrant children</a> – and perhaps <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/01/17/oei-bl-18-00511.pdf">thousands more</a> – were taken from their parents and held in government custody while their parents were criminally prosecuted for crossing the border unlawfully. </p>
<p>Thirty of the children known to have been separated from their families were Mexican; the rest were from Central America. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/emails-show-trump-admin-had-no-way-link-separated-migrant-n1000746">Poor record-keeping</a> has made it difficult for all of them to be reunited with their families before their parents’ deportation. </p>
<p>Together, these actions violate the constitutional rights to legal due process, equal protection and, according to <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-603d-d102-a76d-ebbd03e30001">the Southern District of California</a>, the right of parents to determine the care for their children.</p>
<p>“The liberty interest identified in the Fifth Amendment provides a right to family integrity or to familial association,” wrote Judge Dana M. Sabraw in a June 2018 ruling. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281446/original/file-20190626-76701-oxey35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A child from Guerrero, Mexico, clings to her mother as the family waits in Tijuana to apply for asylum in the U.S., June 13, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Immigration-The-Goal/c9eba4dce9d040308ec4cfef408ac1f6/13/0">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More routine civil rights violations happen to Mexicans in the U.S. every day, our report found. </p>
<p>Though children born in the U.S. are entitled by law to American citizenship regardless of their parents’ immigration status, hundreds of undocumented Mexican women in Texas have been <a href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-texas-immigrant-birth-certificate-20151016-story.html">denied birth certificates</a> for their U.S.-born children since 2013, according to a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/immigration/la-na-texas-immigrant-birth-20150718-story.html">lawsuit filed by parents</a>. In 2016, Texas <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2016/07/25/texas-agrees-to-resolve-birth-certificate-case/">settled the lawsuit</a> and agreed to expand the types of documents immigrants can use to prove their identity.</p>
<p>And in both Arizona and Texas, so-called “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/09/texas-immigration-sanctuary-cities-law-arizona">show me your papers</a>” laws allow police to demand identification from anyone they have a “reasonable suspicion” may be undocumented, which may lead to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/file/785481/download">discriminatory targeting</a> of Latinos.</p>
<p>Once in government detention, <a href="https://www.colef.mx/emif/eng/">surveys conducted in Mexico</a> of recently deported immigrants show, Mexican deportees are often badly treated. </p>
<p>On average, in 2016 and 2017, about half of all recently deported Mexicans reported having no access to medical services or a bathroom while in government custody. One-third reported experiencing extreme heat or cold. </p>
<p>Mexicans are <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/secret-border-patrol-facebook-group-agents-joke-about-migrant-deaths-post-sexist-memes">not alone in their negative experiences at border patrol facilities</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.oig.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/2019-06/OIG-19-47-Jun19.pdf">recent report by the Office of Inspector General</a> found unsafe and unsanitary conditions at several U.S. immigrant detention centers, and immigration lawyers found <a href="https://time.com/5607608/migrant-conditions-holding-centers-border/">food shortages at some migrant children’s shelters</a>.</p>
<h2>A climate of fear</h2>
<p>While Mexicans in the United States have faced <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1163/156916306777835376">biased law enforcement</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3846170/">discrimination</a> for many decades, their treatment appears to have worsened since President Trump took office in 2017 with an openly <a href="http://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/">anti-Mexican agenda</a>.</p>
<p>A survey of Mexicans recently deported from the United States <a href="https://www.colef.mx/emif/eng/">found</a> that the number of people who reported experiencing verbal abuse or physical assault during their time in the U.S. increased 47% between 2016 and 2017. </p>
<p>The number of hate crimes against Latinos reported to the <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/hate-crime/2016/tables/table-1;%20https:/ucr.fbi.gov/hate-crime/2017/tables/table-1.xls.">FBI</a> also rose 24% in 2017 compared to 2016 – increasing from 344 incidents to 427. </p>
<p>Mexico is concerned about its citizens in the United States. </p>
<p>In March, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard <a href="https://www.vidaenelvalle.com/news/politics-government/article227092954.html">announced</a> it would provide more consular services online to increase the reach of Mexico’s 50 brick-and-mortar consulates in the U.S. and provide more legal training to consulate officials. </p>
<p>To support Mexicans in the U.S. with deportation and other immigration cases, the Mexican government will also <a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/nuevos-consules-generales-en-ee-uu-presentan-estrategia-para-fortalecer-defensa-de-connacionales?idiom=es">strengthen its official ties with U.S.-based legal aid providers</a>. </p>
<p>In theory, Mexico shouldn’t have to scramble to defend the rights of its citizens in the U.S. because the U.S. Constitution would. But, in practice, the civil rights of immigrants are simply not always guaranteed.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114479/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David FitzGerald has received research funding from Mexico's National Human Rights Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angela Y. McClean and Gustavo López do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new report on Mexicans in the US paints a troubling picture about the treatment of the country’s largest immigrant group.David FitzGerald, Theodore E. Gildred Chair in U.S.-Mexican Relations, Professor of Sociology, and Co-Director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California, San DiegoAngela Y. McClean, Ph.D. Candidate in Sociology, Fellow and Graduate Researcher at Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California, San DiegoGustavo López, Graduate Researcher at Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1182692019-06-11T11:23:32Z2019-06-11T11:23:32ZMigrants will pay the price of Mexico’s tariff deal with Trump<p>Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/09/mexican-president-leads-celebration-rally-after-us-tariffs-dropped">celebrating</a> an agreement avoiding <a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1134240653926232064">U.S. tariffs</a> as a major political and diplomatic triumph for his government. </p>
<p>“We didn’t win everything, but we were able to claim a victory with there being no tariffs,” <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/ultimas/2019/06/09/no-se-gano-todo-pero-salimos-con-la-dignidad-intacta-ebrard-5998.html">said chief negotiator Marcelo Ebrard</a>, Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary, on June 9.</p>
<p>The two neighbors have been at odds since United States President Donald Trump on May 30 <a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1134240653926232064">threatened</a> to hit all Mexican imports with steadily rising tariffs unless Mexico successfully halted the northward flow of Central American migrants fleeing <a href="https://theconversation.com/migrants-stories-why-they-flee-114725">extreme poverty and violence</a> through Mexico toward the United States.</p>
<p>Approximately <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf">80% of Mexican exports</a> are destined for the United States. Tariffs would have devastated Mexico’s economy. </p>
<p>To keep its goods untaxed, Mexico had to convince President Trump that it was serious about <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1137155056044826626">stopping migration</a>. After a week of frantic negotiations, Mexico <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-mexico-joint-declaration/#.XPsUHg60a">said it would</a> <a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/negotiations-with-the-united-states-continue">deploy</a> up to 6,000 National Guard troops to its southern border with Guatemala to stop migrants from entering Mexico.</p>
<p>As part of the agreement, a <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/19_0129_OPA_migrant-protection-protocols-policy-guidance.pdf">Trump administration program</a> known as “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/04/usa-government-must-stop-illegal-pushbacks-of-asylum-seekers-to-mexico/">Remain in Mexico</a>,” which forces <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1225">some migrants</a> to wait in Mexico while their asylum claims are processed in the U.S., will also be expanded.</p>
<p>At a June 8 rally “for the dignity of Mexico and friendship with the U.S.” held in the border city of Tijuana, López Obrador <a href="https://lopezobrador.org.mx/2019/06/08/discurso-de-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-presidente-de-mexico-en-el-acto-en-defensa-de-la-dignidad-nacional-y-en-favor-de-la-amistad-con-eeuu-en-tijuana-baja-california/">pledged</a> that Mexico will reinforce its southern border while still “applying the law and respecting the human rights” of migrants.</p>
<p>Ebrard added at the rally that Mexico had emerged from a near trade war with its “dignity intact.” </p>
<h2>Doing the dirty work</h2>
<p>As a law professor who <a href="https://lha.uow.edu.au/law/contacts/UOW155522.html">teaches human rights</a>, I believe that dignity will come at great cost to both Mexico and to the migrants fleeing <a href="https://theconversation.com/migrants-stories-why-they-flee-114725">extreme poverty and violence</a> in Central America.</p>
<p>Many Mexican lawmakers, including allies of the president, have expressed <a href="https://vanguardia.com.mx/articulo/munoz-ledo-expresa-inconformidad-por-acuerdo-entre-mexico-y-estados-unidos">outrage</a> that their immigration policy is now bound by an “immoral and unacceptable” deal that effectively turns Mexico itself into <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wall-and-the-beast-trumps-triumph-from-the-mexican-side-of-the-border-68559">Trump’s border wall</a>.</p>
<p>The agreement violates the campaign promises of López Obrador, who took office in December <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-next-president-likely-to-defy-trump-on-immigration-98912">promising to protect migrants’ rights</a> and pledging not to do the U.S.’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/mexico-seeks-to-become-country-of-refuge-as-us-cracks-down-on-migrants-97668">dirty work</a>” on border enforcement. </p>
<p>It also violates the Mexican Constitution and international law. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://cms.emergency.unhcr.org/documents/11982/55726/Convention+relating+to+the+Status+of+Refugees+%28signed+28+July+1951%2C+entered+into+force+22+April+1954%29+189+UNTS+150+and+Protocol+relating+to+the+Status+of+Refugees+%28signed+31+January+1967%2C+entered+into+force+4+October+167%29+606+UNTS+267/0bf3248a-cfa8-4a60-864d-65cdfece1d47">international refugee law</a> asylum-seekers with demonstrable fear of persecution in their home countries are entitled to seek protection in the place of their choosing. <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/1_060619.pdf">Mexican law goes further</a>. As of 2011, legitimate asylum-seekers are entitled not just to seek but to be granted asylum in Mexico.</p>
<p>Trump’s economic threats against Mexico may not even have been legal. Both the current <a href="https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Texts-of-the-Agreement/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement">North American Free Trade Agreement</a> and the newly signed – but not yet ratified – <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement/agreement-between">United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement</a> require most trade between North American countries to be tariff-free.</p>
<p>Even before the recent negotiations, López Obrador was already quietly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/06/mexico-migrants-border-guatemala-tariffs">complying</a> with U.S. demands to do more to prevent migrants from reaching the U.S.</p>
<p>Between January and May of this year, Mexico <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2019/06/migrantes-detenciones-amlo-trump/">detained</a> 74,031 migrants – a 36% increase compared to the same period last year under former <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-is-outsourcing-border-enforcement-to-mexico-69272">Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto</a>. The number of migrants deported from Mexico tripled from <a href="http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/work/models/SEGOB/CEM/PDF/Estadisticas/Boletines_Estadisticos/2018/Boletin_2018.pdf">5,717</a> in December 2018 to <a href="http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/es_mx/SEGOB/Extranjeros_presentados_y_devueltos">15,654</a> in April 2019, government statistics show.</p>
<p>Sending troops out to target migrants, as Mexico has now promised to do, will almost certainly result in the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-marines-killing-more-suspects-raising-concerns-about-oversight-2019-3">excessive use of force</a> against these migrants. </p>
<p>The Mexican National Guard is an untested <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LGN_270519.pdf">new military police force</a> with immigration enforcement powers. Its creation <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2019/04/militares-guardia-pruebas-confianza/%C3%A7">in early 2019</a> was highly controversial in Mexico given the Mexican military’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-military-is-a-lethal-killing-force-should-it-really-be-deployed-as-police-75521">extraordinarily violent law enforcement record</a>. </p>
<p>Between 2007 and 2017, when troops were helping police fight Mexican drug cartels, the National Human Rights Commission received <a href="https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Sedena-con-10917-quejas-por-violaciones-a-DH-20171109-0168.html">over 13,700 complaints of human rights violations</a> committed by soldiers against civilians. These included accusations of arbitrary arrests, torture and extrajudicial killings.</p>
<h2>Mexico is not a safe country</h2>
<p>Beyond avoiding tariffs, Mexico’s main victory in its negotiations with the United States appears to be having resisted <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/16/trump-mexico-asylum-immigration-547919">pressure</a> to sign a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/016934411503300104">a “safe third country” agreement</a>. </p>
<p>Under such an agreement, refugees are required to apply for asylum in the country where they first land and not the country where they ultimately want to settle. This means that one country can reject a person’s asylum application if they have already been granted asylum by another country.</p>
<p>Canada and the U.S. signed such an <a href="https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/details.aspx?id=104943">agreement</a> in 2002, and Trump has been pushing Mexico to do the same since <a href="https://politico.mx/minuta-politica/minuta-politica-gobierno-federal/videgaray-m%C3%A9xico-no-ser%C3%A1-tercer-pa%C3%ADs-seguro-como-plante%C3%B3-eua/">spring 2018</a>. Under this proposal, thousands of migrants in Mexico who have already applied for asylum in the United States and are now waiting for an answer would see their <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/mexico-rechaza-propuesta-de-eu-para-ser-tercer-pais-seguro-para-migrantes-videgaray">applications invalidated</a>.</p>
<p>Foreign Secretary Ebrard consistently rejected that proposal. He <a href="https://www.jornada.com.mx/ultimas/2019/06/03/solucion-comun-a-choque-con-eu-plantea-ebrard-1364.html">insisted that a safe third country arrangement</a> would violate the Mexican Constitution and Mexico’s <a href="https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/migration-compact">international human rights agreements</a>. </p>
<p>But it is not actually clear how the newly expanded “<a href="https://www.dhs.gov/news/2018/12/20/secretary-nielsen-announces-historic-action-confront-illegal-immigration">Remain in Mexico</a>” program – the details of which have <a href="https://www.capitalmexico.com.mx/nacional/compromisos-mexico-suspension-de-aranceles-estados-unidos-marcelo-ebrard-2019/">not yet been released</a> – will differ in practice from a safe third country agreement. </p>
<p>Migrants may end up staying in Mexico for years while they await their asylum hearing in the United States. During that period, Mexico will be responsible for housing, feeding and protecting refugees. </p>
<p>Jorge Castañeda, Mexico’s secretary of foreign affairs from 2000 to 2003, has <a href="https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/jorge-g-castaneda/unidad-nacional-con-amlo">derided Mexico’s commitment</a> as a “light” safe third country agreement.</p>
<p>The mere idea that Mexico is safe is “a particularly cynical bout of wishful thinking,” as Mexican journalist León Krauze <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/02/us-push-designate-mexico-safe-third-country-refugees-is-farce/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d93b845a9393">put it in a recent Washington Post op-ed</a>. </p>
<p>Mexico is one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-mexico-actually-the-worlds-second-most-murderous-nation-77897">world’s most dangerous places</a>. An estimated <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/es/2019/05/12/homicidios-lopez-obrador/">33,000 people were murdered</a> there last year – <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/topic-pages/murder">twice the average annual homicides in the United States</a> in a country with less than half the population. </p>
<p>Dozens of Central Americans have <a href="https://theconversation.com/dozens-of-migrants-disappear-in-mexico-as-central-american-caravan-pushes-northward-106287">disappeared</a> from migrant caravans journeying northward in Mexico. Over 90% of migrants say they do not feel safe in Mexico, according to a <a href="http://americanimmigrationcouncil.org/sites/default/files/general_litigation/letter_urges_sec_nielsen_end_migrant_protection_protocols_policy.pdf">survey</a> of 500 Central American asylum-seekers conducted in February 2018.</p>
<h2>Mexico must do more with less</h2>
<p>The “Remain in Mexico” policy is likely to result in a significant increase in claims filed for asylum in Mexico, where the immigration system is already under enormous strain. </p>
<p>Around 29,000 people applied for asylum in Mexico in 2018, according to <a href="https://news.un.org/es/story/2019/04/1454561">United Nations data</a>. This year, between January and March, Mexico received 12,716 asylum applications – 43% of last year’s total in just three months. </p>
<p>The Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance, which processes asylum claims, currently has a <a href="https://www.upi.com/Mexico-facing-two-year-backlog-as-asylum-requests-soar/2031535567041/">two-year backlog</a>. </p>
<p>It will now have to do more with less. </p>
<p>Under López Obrador’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/lopez-obrador-clashes-with-courts-after-vowing-poverty-for-mexican-government-109357">austerity policies</a>, the commission’s 2019 budget was <a href="http://fundar.org.mx/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Ana%CC%81lisis-del-Paquete-Econo%CC%81mico-2019-3.pdf">cut 20%</a>, to about US$1 million – its lowest budget since 2011.</p>
<p>More migrants, less money, extreme violence and a recalcitrant, unpredictable northern neighbor – these are the ingredients of a <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/06/05/america/1559754137_929788.html">refugee crisis</a>, not a diplomatic victory. </p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=thanksforreading">Thanks for reading! We can send you The Conversation’s stories every day in an informative email. Sign up today.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mexico says it emerged from tariff negotiations in Washington with its ‘dignity intact.’ But that dignity comes at great cost to the migrants fleeing extreme violence in Central America.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1183132019-06-04T21:13:52Z2019-06-04T21:13:52ZTrump’s Mexico tariffs don’t make sense, but Americans will pay a steep price anyway if they go into effect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277984/original/file-20190604-69051-hue4dh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mexican avocados may soon be more expensive in American supermarkets.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Amazon-Whole-Foods-Shoppers/b4e9f25301294abfb89c0d0edb8b40d5/11/0">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexico-sees-80-percent-chance-of-a-deal-to-head-off-trump-tariffs/2019/06/04/53bdce08-86c4-11e9-98c1-e945ae5db8fb_story.html">Trump administration says it intends</a> to slap a 5% tariff on <a href="https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/mex/usa/show/2017/">every medium-sized car, avocado and other Mexican import</a> beginning June 10 – all <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/us/politics/trump-border-closing-economy.html">almost US$1 billion worth</a> that crosses the border into the U.S. each day on average. </p>
<p>The president is using the policy as a cudgel to compel Mexico to do more to stem the flow of migrants into the U.S. and says he’ll increase the tariff if things don’t improve. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vf1UpqAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar who studies trade policy</a>, I have a hard time agreeing with the president’s strategy that tariffs can be used as a stick to pressure another country to do whatever he wants. </p>
<p>More than that, Americans will pay the price – as they have with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/16/podcasts/the-daily/trump-tariffs-china-trade-war.html">Trump’s U.S.-China trade war</a>. </p>
<h2>Driving up costs to consumers and businesses</h2>
<p>Tariffs, which are a tax imposed on imports paid by consumers in the recipient country, are typically used as a protectionist measure. </p>
<p>That is, governments use them to promote domestic goods in the face of global competition. For instance, if a domestically made item costs less than a foreign made item – due to tariffs increasing the price – trade scholars would expect a consumer to choose the less expensive, domestic item. </p>
<p>This would make sense in an economy where consumers have actual choices about whether to buy a foreign or domestic product. However, due to the evolving global economy, most consumer goods are made abroad or <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/global-supply-chains-big-win-consumers-us-businesses">contain foreign parts</a>. <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/02/news/companies/auto-tariffs/index.html">All “U.S.-made” cars</a>, for examples, contain foreign parts. And <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/705963/summary">my research has shown</a> that it is not easy to understand how “foreign” a product is. </p>
<p>One good example is avocados. Mexico <a href="https://www.live5news.com/2019/06/02/mexican-avocado-growers-expect-us-consumers-bear-tariffs/">produces 11</a> for every 1 grown in California, and demand is unlikely to diminish for avocado toasts and guacamole, so Americans will simply have to pay more. </p>
<p>The long and short of it is that a 5% tariff on all imports from Mexico will drive up costs to American consumers and businesses by almost the entire amount, meaning using them to solve a very different border security issue will be very painful. </p>
<h2>Killing the USMCA</h2>
<p>It is also quite confusing to place tariffs against Mexico. </p>
<p>Just six months ago, the U.S, Canada and Mexico <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/usmca-60377">finished negotiating a massive trade deal</a> to replace the often-reviled North American Free Trade Agreement. Although the deal has been signed by leaders of each country, it has not yet been ratified by the U.S. Congress. </p>
<p>President Donald Trump, who <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/09/27/presidential-debate-nafta-agreement/">has frequently blasted NAFTA</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/30/672150010/usmca-trump-signs-new-trade-agreement-with-mexico-and-canada">trumpeted</a> its replacement, now risks seeing his U.S., Mexico, Canada Agreement torpedoed. House Democrats <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-new-nafta-faces-mounting-resistance-in-democratic-house-11556493604">were already on the fence</a> about whether to ratify it and may use his tariff threats against Mexico over immigration as another reason to vote it down – or to get an immigration deal more to their liking. </p>
<p>And Mexico, which also has yet to ratify the USMCA, is also talking about retaliation against any tariffs Trump imposes, including <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-top-trade-adviser-opposed-mexican-tariffs-11559320692">rejecting</a> the negotiated accord. Tearing up the deal could cause <a href="https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-potential-effects-if-congress-rejects-the-usmca-wells-fargo-201904151731">economic turmoil</a> for the U.S., particularly as Mexico is the <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico">second-largest export market</a> for U.S. goods.</p>
<p>All in all, <a href="https://piie.com/commentary/testimonies/evidence-costs-and-benefits-economic-sanctions">academic research has shown</a> economic sanctions, including tariffs, aren’t an effective way to conduct foreign policy. Unfortunately, they seem to have become the Trump administration’s go-to strategy when it doesn’t get its way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Fattore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Trump plans to put a 5% tariff on every Mexican good that crosses the border unless Mexico does more to reduce the flow of migrants.Christina Fattore, Associate Professor of Political Science, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1128072019-04-12T10:41:47Z2019-04-12T10:41:47ZThis small Mexican border town prizes its human and environmental links with the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268665/original/file-20190410-2901-19nohdq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lucia Orosco holding her daughter, Arely, in Boquillas. Much of the embroidery created here reads 'no el muro' (no wall).</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Moran</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The tiny Mexican town of Boquillas del Carmen sits nestled between the Sierra del Carmen Mountains and the Rio Grande. Its Chihuahuan Desert location is strikingly beautiful, with green vegetation along the river, the brown soil of the surrounding desert and pink mountain cliffs creating splendid color contrasts. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268866/original/file-20190411-44802-zr74ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mexican jays range north into the U.S. through the Big Bend region and in southeastern Arizona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nps.gov/media/photo/gallery-item.htm?pg=2444503&id=2B0B1A0E-155D-451F-67347F1394B35383&gid=92602FA9-155D-451F-670D2BD28DC1E0DA">NPS/Cookie Ballou</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I have been taking students to this magnificent landscape for 20 years – mostly to <a href="https://www.nps.gov/bibe/index.htm">Big Bend National Park</a> in Texas, just a mile north of Boquillas. My colleagues and I have also studied the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.07.017">ecological and economic value of this habitat</a>, one of the most <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/where_we_work/chihuahuan_desert/">biodiverse and ecologically important desert regions in the world</a>. </p>
<p>Recently I returned to study the ecotourism and conservation potential of Boquillas. In the process, I learned about a local vision for the border that is markedly different from the prevailing U.S. view. </p>
<p>Here <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-a-better-vision-for-the-us-mexico-border-make-the-rio-grande-grand-again-73111">the Rio Grande forms the line</a> between the United States and Mexico. The river is an ecological gathering place that draws humans and wildlife. For Boquillas residents, the idea of building a wall here is sacrilegious. As Lilia Falcon, manager of a local restaurant, said to me, “We have friends on both sides of the river, we want these interactions to continue.” Her husband, Bernardo Rogel, was more succinct: “We love both countries.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268656/original/file-20190410-2921-1y07qvx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">View of Boquillas, Mexico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Moran</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A fragile ecotourism economy</h2>
<p>Boquillas was originally a mining town, with local deposits of silver, lead and zinc that attracted prospectors. By the early 20th century, 2,000 people lived there and a thriving industry was <a href="https://www.nps.gov/parkhistory/online_books/geology/publications/state/tx/1968-7/sec2.htm">exporting ore</a>. </p>
<p>That boom turned to bust, and by the end of World War I the mines were <a href="https://tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/hvb82">closed</a>. The town nearly disappeared in the 1960s, but in 1999 when I first visited there, it had about 200 residents. They made their living from cross-border tourism, with U.S. visitors to Big Bend National Park entering Mexico via a legal but unofficial border crossing. </p>
<p>After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, however, the United States closed all of these informal crossings. Overnight Boquillas lost its income source, <a href="https://www.saveur.com/boquillas-mexican-border-town">ruining livelihoods</a> and jeopardizing years of effort by residents and government officials to <a href="https://splinternews.com/meet-los-diablos-the-mexican-firefighters-who-chase-th-1793857787">build cooperative border relations</a>. </p>
<p>The nearest place to get supplies was now a 300-mile round trip over rough roads deep into rural Mexico. Just three miles away on the U.S. side, gas, food and services in Big Bend National Park’s <a href="https://www.nps.gov/bibe/planyourvisit/rgv_campground.htm">Rio Grande Village campground</a> were now inaccessible. Relatives who were citizens on opposite sides of the border were <a href="https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Divided-families-and-friends-meet-on-the-Rio-6253285.php">separated</a>, 115 miles from the nearest legal crossing point.</p>
<p>After more than a decade of lobbying by residents, the U.S. government created a “remote” passport facility, where people crossing the border could present their documentation by phone to a border agent located in El Paso. Boquillas reopened and merchants and guides returned. In 2018 <a href="https://explore.dot.gov/t/BTS/views/BTSBorderCrossingAnnualData/BorderCrossingTableDashboard?:embed=y&:showShareOptions=true&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no">more than 11,000 visitors</a> crossed over from the United States. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268660/original/file-20190410-2909-gtghut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crossing to Boquillas by rowboat from Big Bend National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nps.gov/bibe/planyourvisit/visiting-boquillas.htm">NPS / T. VandenBerg</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today Boquillas residents are <a href="https://www.gonewiththewynns.com/boquillas-mexico-big-bend-texas">working again</a> to teach visitors about this part of Mexico, and ecotourism companies are expanding. People here envision a future for the border in which respect, cooperation and shared economic gain will create a prosperous and sustainable future for communities on both sides. </p>
<h2>Welcoming visitors and valuing connections</h2>
<p>It is obvious to me that people in Boquillas love their town and are hopeful about the future. “I want to show visitors the beauty of my home and to have a more prosperous life for my family,” Lacho Falcón, a local guide whose family owns the only grocery store in town, told me on my most recent visit as we hiked into Boquillas canyon, its massive vertical walls gleaming in soft morning light. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268661/original/file-20190410-2931-jbt1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Lacho Falcón (second from left, rear) and his family in Boquillas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Moran</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>I have heard that sentiment repeated many times as I have gotten to know more people in the town. Thanks to economic activity from tourism, “We have been able to buy a vehicle, improve our house, and most importantly, send our oldest daughter Wendy to college,” said Lucia Orosco. She sells crafts to help support her family, which includes husband Adrián, who manages the ferry crossing over the Rio Grande, and their three children. </p>
<p>Canoeing the Rio Grande is a favorite tourist activity. The river cuts through spectacular canyons, supports abundant wildlife and provides water for this thirsty land. I spoke with Ernesto Hernández Morales from Vera Cruz, Mexico and Mike Davidson from Terlingua, Texas about the river’s potential to unify their countries. As partners with <a href="http://boquillas.org/guided-tours/">Boquillas Adventures</a>, a Mexican registered ecotourism company that focuses on natural and historic interpretation, they are working to expand sustainable tourism opportunities in nearby protected areas, hiring local residents as guides. </p>
<p>“We see our work as more than a business,” said Hernández Morales. “It’s an opportunity to show Mexico and the U.S. working together for security and prosperity.” Davidson concurs: “It is our goal to provide our guests a high-quality, safe experience…and offer them a glimpse of daily reality on this part of the border.” </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268664/original/file-20190410-2912-od9ca3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ernesto Hernández Morales helps run Boquillas Adventures, an ecotourism company in the Boquillas region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Moran</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Chalo Diaz, a local guide who takes visitors on river trips, is excited about his work. “Boquillas is a beautiful town where you can visit friendly people. Now that the border has reopened, we have improved it and are connected to the world,” he told me.</p>
<h2>United ecologically, separated politically?</h2>
<p>In 2011 Mexico and the United States signed a cooperative agreement to <a href="https://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/US-Mexico-Announce-Binational-Cooperative-Conservation-Action-Plan">conserve the spectacular Chihuahuan Desert landscape</a>. This initiative builds on proposals dating back nearly a century to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/envhis/14.3.453">create a cross-border international peace park</a>.</p>
<p>American black bears, mountain lions, bighorn sheep and a host of smaller animals, as well as over 400 species of birds, move across this landscape. Studies show that conserving this region requires maintaining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2004.07.007">free movement for wildlife</a>. Researchers warn that building a border wall through the area could <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-rsquo-s-wall-may-threaten-thousands-of-plant-and-animal-species-on-the-u-s-mexico-border/">threaten thousands of plant and animal species</a> by preventing them from moving between patches of the best habitat. </p>
<p>Currently Boquillas is the only access point where people can cross between the protected areas in this region. This makes it critical to future conservation success. People in Boquillas believe that building a border wall would sever this connection, causing hardship and insecurity on both sides.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew D. Moran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar who travels regularly to the US-Mexico border finds ecological links and a community on the other side that welcomes American visitors.Matthew D. Moran, Professor of Biology, Hendrix CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1004412018-08-20T08:21:23Z2018-08-20T08:21:23ZMexico’s new president has plans to make his country safer – but will they work?<p>Mexican voters upended their country’s political establishment this summer when they elected Andres Manuel López Obrador – the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City known as AMLO – by an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/02/mexico-election-leftist-amlo-set-for-historic-landslide-victory">overwhelming margin</a>. His impressive victory owed a lot to his personal charisma and populist rhetoric, but it also reflected the public’s weariness with Mexico’s current state of affairs – and in particular, with criminal violence.</p>
<p>Long a problem for Mexico, deadly violence is now at an all time high. There were <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/31/americas/mexico-homicides-2017-new-numbers/index.html">more than 31,000 murders in 2017</a>, the highest number on record, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/23/mexico-crime-homicides-violence-up-report">this year is shaping up to be even deadlier</a>.</p>
<p>López Obrador’s term begins on December 1, but his incoming government has already <a href="https://twitter.com/AlfonsoDurazo/status/1028131486678044672">pledged</a> to reduce violent crime by between 30-50% within three years, and to bring crime rates in line with those in OECD countries <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/oecd-homicide-rates-chart-2015-6">within six years</a>. To achieve this, it has come up with three strategies: tackling the “root causes” of crime through social policy, ending the war against organised crime, and restructuring security institutions.</p>
<p>One of the central ideas behind López Obrador’s approach to security is that when it comes to fighting crime, <a href="https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/El-reto-es-hallar-las-personas-indicadas-para-hacer-la-tarea-Alfonso-Durazo-20180728-0001.html">the best policy is social policy</a>. But muddling social policy with crime policy is troublesome; rather than lifting people out of criminogenic conditions, it can simply spawn a welter of social programmes that have little bearing on crime at all.</p>
<p>This is what happened during the tenure of the outgoing administration, when every proposal from <a href="https://www.cidob.org/en/articulos/revista_cidob_d_afers_internacionals/116/the_effects_of_prevention_of_crime_and_violence_policy_in_mexico">cooking lessons to handing out free glasses to schoolchildren</a> was held up as a worthwhile crime prevention initiative. This sort of policymaking neglects the fact that the police can actually be <a href="http://whatworks.college.police.uk/toolkit/Pages/Toolkit.aspx">very effective at preventing crime</a> in the short term.</p>
<p>AMLO clearly sees things differently. He plans to roll out an extensive scholarship programme aimed at preventing the <a href="https://verne.elpais.com/verne/2018/02/02/mexico/1517594700_019834.html">7m young people not in education, employment or training</a> from joining criminal gangs, even though there is no consistent evidence showing that youth unemployment and poverty are the main drivers of involvement in organised crime. Though scant research on this topic has been conducted in Mexico itself, evidence from the UK has shown the opposite: as youth unemployment and poverty has increased, the amount of crime committed by this age group has actually <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-a-link-between-youth-poverty-and-crime-the-answers-may-surprise-you-50097">decreased</a>.</p>
<h2>Beyond the drug war</h2>
<p>On a different front, the incoming government has correctly identified the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/26/mexico-maelstrom-how-the-drug-violence-got-so-bad">decade-long war on organised crime</a> as one of the main drivers of violence. But while it has proposed a three-pronged plan to bring about peace, it is unlikely that this is achievable in the short term.</p>
<p>First, AMLO and his team have proposed implementing a process of transitional justice to break the cycle of violence, including a controversial <a href="https://theconversation.com/amnesty-for-drug-traffickers-thats-one-mexican-presidential-candidates-pitch-to-voters-96063">amnesty for low-level drug-traffickers</a>. There is still much uncertainty as to how this would be implemented, but it remains unclear whether it would actually help end violence in Mexico, since these mechanisms were designed to manage the aftermath of political and ethnic conflicts.</p>
<p>Second, with a growing global consensus that the current <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/02/un-war-on-drugs-failure-prohibition-united-nations">drug prohibition regime has failed</a>, the new government plans to legalise cannabis and the cultivation of opium poppies. However, wholesale legalisation of cannabis has never been attempted in a country as large and complex – and as fraught with poor institutions – as Mexico. That means it may be years before legalisation is implemented, as the necessary regulatory frameworks and institutions will have to be established first.</p>
<p>In addition, legalisation in Mexico would create more opportunities for smuggling drugs into the US – potentially a boon for some organised crime groups, and potentially a serious risk to an already troubled relationship with Washington.</p>
<p>Finally, the new government has pledged to train enough police officers to <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-cartels-grow-deadlier-should-the-mexican-military-be-involved-in-law-enforcement-89134">remove the armed forces</a> from the fight against organised crime in three years. But this plan is based on a highly optimistic estimate of the state’s capacity to recruit and train new police officers. </p>
<p>Between 2015 and 2016, there were <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17690420/mexico-president-amlo-drug-war-cartels-violence-legalization">133,000 soldiers involved in the fight against organised crime</a>; replacing them would require at least 50,000 new elite federal police officers. President Calderón (2006-2012) took six years to recruit 20,000 federal police officers. His successor, Peña Nieto, promised a 50,000-strong National Gendarmerie, but ultimately delivered a force of fewer than 5,000. It’s highly unlikely that the new government will be able to perform any better.</p>
<h2>Reinventing the police</h2>
<p>The incoming government has also hinted at yet another redesign of Mexico’s security institutions. Though they have <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/07/guardia-nacional-amlo-seguridad/">dropped a plan</a> to create a “National Guard” incorporating the army and the police, AMLO plans to recreate the Federal Security Ministry (dissolved by the outgoing president, Enrique Peña Nieto), to form a new police force charged with <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-13/amlo-s-top-cop-no-longer-sees-new-border-police-force-in-mexico">protecting tourist destinations</a>, and to <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/coming-us-mexico-blow">replace the country’s intelligence agency</a> with an entirely new body.</p>
<p>These reforms are likely to take much longer than anticipated, wasting precious resources that could otherwise be spent on actual police work. And even if they’re implemented swiftly, they are <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/mexico-needlessly-plans-to-alter-justice-agency/">unlikely to directly improve the security situation</a>.</p>
<p>Mexico is simply too vast and too diverse for centralised control of security policy to work. The federal government does not and will not have the resources to properly deal with most of its crime problems. A better approach would be to delegate responsibility to state and local governments, using federal policy to induce improvements in local policing. Security institutions require continuity and time to mature; small, incremental improvements to their operations are a better bet than wholesale redesign.</p>
<p>The security situation in Mexico remains dire, and it’s likely to remain that way for some time. Social policy can help reduce poverty and improve welfare, but it’s no substitute for intelligent, evidence-based crime prevention delivered by a well-trained local police. Removing the army from the streets without capable police officers to replace them could strengthen organised crime groups and make the situation worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100441/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricio R. Estévez-Soto receives funding from Mexico's National Science and Technology Council and the Mexican Ministry of Education through the country's postgraduate funding schemes.</span></em></p>Even with the best will in the world, there’s only so much social policy can do to stop organised crime.Patricio R. Estévez-Soto, PhD Candidate in Security and Crime Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/929112018-03-06T19:17:50Z2018-03-06T19:17:50ZUneasy US-Mexico relationship will survive ambassador’s resignation — but just barely<p>After two years on the job, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Roberta Jacobson has announced that <a href="http://time.com/5182213/roberta-jacobson-us-ambassador-mexico-resigns/">she will retire</a> on May 5, 2018 — the latest in a growing list of career diplomats <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-diplomat/senior-u-s-diplomat-for-north-korea-to-retire-idUSKCN1GB0C1">to step down under Donald Trump</a>.</p>
<p>Jacobson has <a href="https://panampost.com/elena-toledo/2016/05/27/roberta-jacobson-arrives-in-mexico-as-new-us-ambassador/">worked in Latin America diplomacy for three decades</a>, including in the Obama administration’s effort to reopen the U.S. embassy in Cuba. She is an undisputed Mexico expert, highly regarded for her deft touch in <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/mexicos-president-to-meet-two-trump-emissaries/3735363.html">smoothing ruffled Mexican feathers</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-diplomacy-how-trump-is-using-social-media-to-spur-a-crisis-with-mexico-71981">undiplomatic presidential tweets</a>. Her love of Mexican culture has endeared her to the nation. </p>
<p><a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2018/03/01/mexico/1519927689_032875.html">Many analysts see</a> this seasoned diplomat’s departure as a devastating blow to U.S.-Mexico relations, which have grown tense under President Trump. His administration has sought to <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-threat-to-withdraw-from-nafta-may-hit-a-hurdle-the-us-constitution-81444">renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement</a>, deport thousands of <a href="https://theconversation.com/deportees-in-mexico-tell-of-disrupted-lives-families-and-communities-90082">Mexican citizens living in the U.S.</a> and repel “<a href="https://theconversation.com/just-who-are-the-millions-of-bad-hombres-slated-for-us-deportation-68818">bad hombres</a>” with a border wall.</p>
<p>The White House’s recent announcement that the U.S. will impose tariffs on steel imports — <a href="http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/trump-ties-steel-aluminum-tariffs-for-mexico-canada-to-nafta">including on its NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico</a> — have spurred <a href="https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN1GC2W0-OCABS">calls for retaliation south of the border</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"970626966004162560"}"></div></p>
<p>Yes, these two neighbors are more at odds than I’ve ever seen in <a href="https://annenberg.usc.edu/faculty/communication/pamela-starr">a quarter century of analyzing, teaching and writing on U.S.-Mexico relations</a>. But I wager the bilateral relationship will survive Jacobson’s departure. </p>
<p>Here’s why.</p>
<h2>Both countries need each other</h2>
<p>Mexico and the U.S. are key commercial partners, trading US$1.5 billion in goods and services every day. Together, the two countries <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html">did more than $556 billion in business last year</a>. Mexico is the <a href="https://www.export.gov/article?id=Mexico-Market-Overview">first or second export market for 28 U.S. states</a> and the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-effect-corn-exclusive/exclusive-as-trump-trashes-nafta-mexico-turns-to-brazilian-corn-idUSKCN1G61J4">single largest market for U.S. corn exports</a>. Mexico is also <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico">the third main supplier of imported goods and services</a> to the U.S.</p>
<p>The United States and Mexico also produce things together. Thanks to NAFTA, the U.S.-Mexico border doesn’t matter in product supply chains: An automobile may <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2017/01/20/how-trumps-protectionism-would-destroy-auto-industry-jobs-not-create-them/#7c0bc2579b32">cross it as many as eight times</a> in the manufacturing process. No other country in the world, with the possible exception of Canada, is as tightly integrated with the U.S. economy.</p>
<p>In other words, the U.S.-Mexico relationship will survive Jacobson’s resignation in part because <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-us-should-treat-mexico-as-a-vital-partner-not-a-punching-bag-72350">markets in both countries depend on it</a>. </p>
<h2>A star team</h2>
<p>Full disclosure: Roberta Jacobson is a personal friend of mine. So I can attest that she has ensured that her departure will not derail diplomatic relations. </p>
<p>Jacobson, a smart leader, recruited a talented team to work with her in Mexico City, led by her <a href="https://mx.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/dcm/">Deputy Chief of Mission William Duncan</a>. Duncan, who previously served a tour in Mexico City as the embassy political officer, has been on the ground there since 2015. </p>
<p>Having previously worked on the international drug trade in Bogota, Colombia, he is also well-versed on counter-narcotics — <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-chapo-story-of-a-kingpin-or-why-trumps-plan-to-defeat-mexican-cartels-is-doomed-to-fail-71781">always a focal point of the U.S.-Mexico relationship</a>.</p>
<p>My sources say Duncan and other key foreign service officers will remain after Jacobson leaves. That should ensure the effective daily management of what is, in my assessment, America’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/02/03/the-u-s-mexico-relationship-is-dangerously-on-the-edge/">most complex but underappreciated bilateral relationship</a>.</p>
<h2>Business and bureaucracy to the rescue</h2>
<p>I’m also heartened by the knowledge that the U.S. and Mexico are bound by <a href="https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-mexico-relations">generation of bilateral collaboration and mutual understanding</a>. Government officials from both sides of the border have a long tradition of meeting frequently to manage such <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/06/01/renegotiating-the-u-s-mexico-relationship-in-2017/">diverse policy challenges</a> as trade, security, immigration and public health. </p>
<p>That won’t change with Jacobson’s departure. Tedious as it sounds, bureaucracy can ensure that calm persists beneath the surface when quarreling presidents roil international waters.</p>
<p>In my opinion, reports that the Trump administration will <a href="https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/politics/article/San-Antonio-s-Whitacre-reported-to-be-Trump-s-12721585.php">nominate Ed Whitacre to replace Jacobson</a> are reassuring, too. A former AT&T and General Motors executive who brought the bankrupt auto manufacturer <a href="http://fortune.com/2013/01/23/how-ed-whitacre-brought-gm-back-from-the-brink/">back from the brink</a>, Whitacre should intimately comprehend the economic importance of the bilateral relationship. And, by all accounts, he is pro-NAFTA.</p>
<p>The 76-year-old previously <a href="https://therivardreport.com/whitacres-return-could-restore-u-s-mexico-relations/">partnered with the Mexican telecoms billionaire Carlos Slim</a>, and he served on the board of Exxon Mobil back when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was CEO. I suspect Whitacre, who is a born Texan, understands the realities of U.S.-Mexico relations better than the White House.</p>
<h2>Trump’s dismal Mexico polling</h2>
<p>Despite these positive signs, I do worry for the future.</p>
<p>I know that Ambassador Jacobson resigned in large part because she, like many of her State Department colleagues, was frustrated working in an administration that <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/27/top-state-department-officials-step-down-in-black-friday-exodus/">does not value the insights and advice of its best diplomats</a>. Over the past year, Tillerson’s agency has lost dozens of mid-level officials and senior diplomats, including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/27/joseph-yun-us-north-korea-diplomat">North Korea envoy Joseph Yun</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/07/26/state-department-head-of-diplomatic-security-resigns/">Security Chief Bill Miller</a>.</p>
<p>The gutting of the country’s diplomatic corps has, in my assessment, degraded the State Department’s ability to <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary/115194.htm">do its critical job</a>, which is advising the White House and Congress on the essential nuances in U.S. foreign policy. </p>
<p>This has <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/is-trump-ending-the-american-era/537888/">already damaged American influence worldwide</a> and in Mexico. Two years ago, <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/09/14/mexican-views-of-the-u-s-turn-sharply-negative/">66 percent of Mexicans viewed the United States favorably</a>, according to Pew surveys. Today, two-thirds of Mexicans see the U.S. negatively. Just 5 percent have confidence in President Trump.</p>
<h2>A wild card south of the border</h2>
<p>Mexican politics may also complicate future relations. President Enrique Peña Nieto has mostly <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-mexico-deal-with-the-donald-71067">refused to respond to public pressure to return Trump’s broadsides against his country</a> because his administration sees cooperation as key to a successful NAFTA renegotiation. His restraint has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/world/americas/mexico-pena-nieto-donald-trump.html">offended Mexicans</a>. </p>
<p>Mexico’s next presidential election is July 1. The leading contender, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is both <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-mexico-a-firebrand-leftist-provokes-the-powers-that-be-including-donald-trump-78918">far less patient and much more nationalist</a> than Peña Nieto. As president, he may well see political advantage in distancing Mexico from Trump and the U.S.</p>
<p>The complexity of the enduring but endangered U.S.-Mexico relationship demands that the U.S. put its best diplomatic foot forward. With luck, Jacobson’s team will continue to do that under Whitacre’s leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pamela K. Starr is a Senior Advisor for Monarch Global Strategies. She has received funding from the U.S.-Mexico Foundation for the U.S.-Mexico Network. She is also affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).</span></em></p>The admired US ambassador to Mexico is resigning, even as the two countries spat over trade, immigration and Trump’s tweets. Can this critical diplomatic relationship survive yet another problem?Pamela K. Starr, Associate Professor of International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/906432018-02-02T12:25:17Z2018-02-02T12:25:17ZMexico negotiates NAFTA with painful history in mind – and elections on the way<p>As the latest round of negotiations in Montreal comes to an end, the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is still up in the air. Donald Trump’s threat of a unilateral US withdrawal hangs over the talks, despite some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/29/us/politics/nafta-talks-conclude-in-montreal-with-signs-of-progress-and-risk.html">conciliatory noises</a> from his administration. </p>
<p>Although a premature end to NAFTA would certainly pose serious problems for the Mexican economy (as well as those of the US and Canada), an abrupt end to North American integration could force just the sort of shake-up the country needs.</p>
<p>The end of NAFTA would force Mexico to seek out new opportunities south, east and west. Conversely, it might also turn the country into a more inward-looking economy, spurring badly needed development of a domestic market. All these, of course, would involve risky political and economic transitions. Hence, a fair and creative renegotiated NAFTA would be the best outcome for all parties involved. </p>
<p>Certainly NAFTA is far from perfect, and it has had some unintended economic consequences – the US, for one, has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/wilbur-ross-these-nafta-rules-are-killing-our-jobs/2017/09/21/657bee58-9ee6-11e7-9083-fbfddf6804c2_story.html">valid concerns about the rules of origin</a> it applies to certain goods. Yet if the three countries can get beyond a mere obsession with <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-big-problems-with-trumps-new-nafta-plan-81301">trade deficits</a>, a fully modernised deal could be the best solution.</p>
<p>Of the three countries, Mexico finds itself in the trickiest situation: it wants NAFTA – but not at any cost. But at the same time, its position is much stronger than the one it found itself in some 30 years ago.</p>
<h2>A bad bet</h2>
<p>During the original negotiations in the early 1990s, the US in particular was reluctant to make the treaty seem in any way political. It worked zealously to avoid any appearance it was compromising its sovereignty, pursuing the deal on the post-Cold War credo that economic liberalisation alone could guarantee democratic evolution. </p>
<p>Thus, instead of becoming a positive factor in the struggle for human rights and democracy, signing NAFTA allowed Mexico’s undemocratic Industrial Revolutionary Party (PRI) regime to “indulge” in some of its more traditional repressive practices as its international image improved.</p>
<p>But at the same time, the regime staked its very survival on the agreement – betting that it would help redefine Mexico’s economy, clean up the government’s image abroad and drastically improve living standards. As it turned out, only the first two outcomes materialised and the PRI’s gamble backfired spectacularly.</p>
<p>Instead of drastically improving living standards, NAFTA contributed (through hasty financialisation and liberalisation) to the peso currency crisis of December 1994. The sudden devaluation of the currency led to a drastic fall in real wages, and the PRI could no longer claim to be the best party to manage the economy.</p>
<p>There are plenty of lessons to learn here. The expected benefits of NAFTA were at first deliberately “oversold” to the Mexican people, and the resulting optimism quite probably contributed towards the country’s democratisation. Two and a half decades on, this overegging is no longer necessary. Instead, Mexico’s best negotiating position would be a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/top-mexico-candidate-blasts-trump-says-can-t-wait-to-redo-nafta">moderate approach</a> that treats NAFTA as beneficial, but not indispensable. </p>
<p>Moderation would help avoid the sort of crisis that beset Mexico’s economy in the 1990s. While that crisis did at least push the PRI out of the presidency and force a political liberalisation, few would want to repeat the experience.</p>
<p>What’s really different today is the attitude of Mexico’s two partners. The Trump administration clearly has very little interest in Mexico’s political, economic or social development, and is more keen on its own unilateral goals. Canada’s position is less clear, but it is also unlikely that its prime minister, Justin Trudeau, would be willing to jeopardise NAFTA for something as irrelevant as Mexico’s democratic strengthening. The possibility to do so, however, is still there.</p>
<h2>A stronger hand</h2>
<p>Whereas NAFTA was originally negotiated by an undemocratic Mexican government, most Mexicans today want to live in an open, outward-looking country. As far as they’re concerned, NAFTA is still tarred with its undemocratic legacy. As such, even if Canada and the US are eager to finalise the renegotiation before difficult elections appear on the horizon, delaying the renegotiation until after Mexico’s 2018 presidential election may play to Mexico’s advantage.</p>
<p>Yes, there is a risk that the (<a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mexico-election-amlo/mexico-presidential-race-roiled-as-leftist-front-runner-embraces-right-wing-party-idUKKBN1EA00P">arguably</a>) left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador wins the election and reneges whatever may have been achieved until then, though he has yet to come out against NAFTA in principle, whether renegotiated or not. But postponing the end of the renegotiation until after the election would help earn NAFTA more democratic legitimacy in Mexico; candidates will have to declare their preferences, and whoever ends up winning the election can rightly claim a direct democratic mandate for their vision. And that in turn will surely strengthen Mexico’s negotiating position. </p>
<p>Finally, this is an excellent opportunity to strengthen the so-called “third leg” of the triangle: Mexican-Canadian relations. For decades, NAFTA worked less like a trilateral treaty than two bilateral ones: a US-Mexico and a US-Canada rather than a proper trilateral one. Traditionally, Mexico and Canada have been reluctant to cooperate closely for fear of angering the colossus between them. </p>
<p>But with Trump at the helm, the colossus is already angry and unwilling to co-operate. The time has come for Mexico and Canada to forge a much closer and stronger relationship, joining forces to defend the North American project. But whether that project can hold together after a difficult quarter century still hangs in the balance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pablo Calderon-Martinez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The North American Free Trade Agreement forced Mexico into a crisis that turned into an opportunity. Could the same happen again?Pablo Calderon-Martinez, Lecturer in Spanish, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/855882017-10-11T23:18:10Z2017-10-11T23:18:10ZIn Mexico, undocumented migrants risk deportation to aid earthquake victims<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189849/original/file-20171011-28059-j3z0e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Undocumented migrants are among those helping to rebuild the hardest-hit areas of Oaxaca state, where federal aid has been slow to trickle down.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/24/Enrique_Pe%C3%B1a_Nieto_y_Alejandro_Murat_Hinojosa_visitan_una_zona_afectada_por_el_sismo_del_7_de_septiembre2.jpg/1200px-Enrique_Pe%C3%B1a_Nieto_y_Alejandro_Murat_Hinojosa_visitan_una_zona_afectada_por_el_sismo_del_7_de_septiembre2.jpg">Presidencia de la República Mexicana CC-by-2.0</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After <a href="https://theconversation.com/twin-earthquakes-expose-mexicos-deep-inequality-84012">two earthquakes</a> that left more than <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366/2017/10/03/535a6546-a851-11e7-9a98-07140d2eed02_story.html?utm_term=.26fa569356df">450 dead</a> and <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/09/sismos-destruyeron-casas-150-mil-construidas-2016/">150,000 houses damaged</a>, my home country of Mexico faces huge challenges in recovery. </p>
<p>According to official estimates, the country will need more than <a href="http://www.milenio.com/politica/enrique_pena_nieto-reconstruccion-19_de_septiembre-19-s-terremoto-cdmx_0_1037896374.html">30 billion pesos</a> (around US$2 billion) to rebuild. The resources required for Mexico’s recovery are almost double the country’s <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?year_high_desc=true">annual gross domestic product</a>, according to World Bank figures.</p>
<p>Manpower, at least, has not been an issue. Search-and-rescue teams from <a href="https://twitter.com/Pajaropolitico/status/912820776343969792">several countries</a> – including Chile, Colombia, Israel, Japan, Panama, the United States and Spain – arrived in the days after the earthquakes to dig survivors out of the rubble. Dozens of <a href="https://verne.elpais.com/verne/2017/09/23/mexico/1506122504_489163.html">foreigners</a> who reside in Mexico also joined the Mexican volunteers in their rescue efforts. </p>
<p>Among these international brigades was a group of undocumented Central American migrants who, interrupting their travel northward to the U.S., stayed in Mexico to <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Mexico-Quake-Victims-Aided-by-Central-American-Migrant-Brigade-as-Government-Fails-20170912-0005.html">help</a> clean up debris and assist the victims. </p>
<p>Their efforts have been largely focused in two of the cities most impacted by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-seismologists-didnt-see-mexicos-deadly-earthquake-coming-83865">historic Sept. 7 quake</a>, Juchitán and Asunción Ixtaltepec, in Oaxaca. But after the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/19/americas/mexico-earthquake/index.html">Sept. 19 Mexico City earthquake</a>, some members also volunteered to help dig out survivors from the rubble of the nation’s capital.</p>
<p>With anti-immigrant sentiment on the rise in both the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-will-pay-for-trumps-big-beautiful-wall-72321">United States</a> and Mexico, which is now <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/08/26/491531862/before-migrants-reach-u-s-mexico-deports-central-americans">deporting Central American migrants in record numbers</a>, these undocumented good Samaritans are changing the Mexican narrative on migrants – brick by brick, rescue by rescue.</p>
<h2>Layover on La Bestia</h2>
<p>The nearly 50 Central American migrants assisting in Oaxaca’s earthquake recovery effort are staying at <a href="http://www.hermanosenelcamino.org/">Hermanos en el Camino</a> (Brothers of the Road), a Catholic-run shelter in hard-hit Isthmus of Tehuantepec. </p>
<p>Felipe González, a volunteer at the shelter, told me via telephone that after the urgent rescue efforts ended, they have continued their work, distributing aid among those who lost their homes.</p>
<p>The migrants who organized this aid brigade are from Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and they have diverse backgrounds, but what they have in common – both with each other and with Mexican earthquake victims – is a history of hardship. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="http://www.msf.mx/sites/mexico/files/msf_fah_e.pdf">May report</a> from Doctors Without Borders, almost 40 percent of the roughly 500,000 Central American immigrants the organization surveyed in Mexico fled their countries after experiencing physical attacks, threats against themselves or their families, extortion or forced gang recruitment. </p>
<p>The Brothers of the Road shelter is located in Ciudad Ixtepec, one of the <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/A_History_of_Violence.html?id=_hDUBwAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">stops</a> on the main route that Central American immigrants heading north used to follow through Mexico. Normally, the facility serves to provide relief to immigrants who ride atop “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wall-and-the-beast-trumps-triumph-from-the-mexican-side-of-the-border-68559">La Bestia</a>” – that is, the Beast, the Mexican network of freight trains – to travel to the U.S.</p>
<p>Normally, any savvy immigrant passing through Mexico hopes to avoid detection. At the behest of the U.S., Mexico has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-is-outsourcing-border-enforcement-to-mexico-69272">cracking down</a> on undocumented Central American migrants, policing train tops with <a href="http://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5448911&fecha=23/08/2016">drones</a> and <a href="https://qz.com/942603/central-american-migrants-are-drowning-off-the-coast-of-mexico-as-they-try-to-avoid-land-smuggling-routes/">increasing travel speeds from 18 to 37 mph</a>. As a result, a <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/03/26/mexico/1490504262_706608.html">new maritime route through the Pacific</a> is now opening up.</p>
<p>Mexico has also stepped up deportations. In 2014, for example, Mexico “returned” <a href="http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/work/models/SEGOB/CEM/PDF/Estadisticas/Boletines_Estadisticos/2014/Boletin_2014.pdf">107,814</a> migrants, the majority of them from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. In 2015, deportations rose to <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/work/models/SEGOB/CEM/PDF/Estadisticas/Sintesis_Graficas/Sintesis_2016.pdf">181,163</a>. In 2016, it was <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=http://www.politicamigratoria.gob.mx/work/models/SEGOB/CEM/PDF/Estadisticas/Sintesis_Graficas/Sintesis_2016.pdf">159,872</a>.</p>
<p>The Trump administration has kept up the pressure. In a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/10/08/president-donald-j-trumps-letter-house-and-senate-leaders-immigration">letter</a> sent to Congress and Senate leaders on Oct. 8, the U.S. president requested that the Department of Homeland Security be granted broad powers to assist “partner nations” in “removing aliens from third countries whose ultimate intent is entering the United States.”</p>
<p>Tough border enforcement isn’t the only reason that Central American migrants normally aim to hurry through Mexico under the radar. Nearly one-third of women <a href="http://www.msf.mx/sites/mexico/files/msf_fah_e.pdf">surveyed by Doctors Without Borders</a> in 2014 had been sexually abused during their journey, and 68 percent of all migrants were victims of violence. </p>
<p>Migrants are among the many victims of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-murder-and-grief-mexicos-drug-war-turns-ten-70036">Mexico’s drug war</a>. In <a href="http://archivo.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/703946.html">2010</a> and <a href="http://archivo.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/771014.html">2011</a>, 265 migrants from Central and South America were murdered by the Zetas cartel in the northern Mexican town of San Fernando, Tamaulipas, just 55 miles from Texas. </p>
<h2>The North American dream</h2>
<p>Even knowing the dangers presented by both the state and the drug lords, the guests at the Brothers of the Road shelter risked everything to pitch into the rescue effort after the quake that hit Oaxaca and Chiapas, <a href="https://theconversation.com/twin-earthquakes-expose-mexicos-deep-inequality-84012">two of the poorest states in Mexico</a>, in September.</p>
<p>“We’re immigrants in search of the American dream,” Denio Okele, an Honduran migrant, explained to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/central-american-migrants-help-mexicans-affected-by-quake-1049029187749">NBC News</a>. But, he continued, “we arrived in Oaxaca, and an earthquake occurred. We are thus helping the people who need assistance.” </p>
<p>Their reasons for helping range from solidarity and compassion to gratitude. “We have received a lot support from people, so we want to help them,” Wilson Alonso, also from Honduras, told the Spanish newspaper <a href="https://verne.elpais.com/verne/2017/09/11/mexico/1505154960_327994.html">El País</a>.</p>
<p>The sacrifice of this migrant humanitarian aid team has earned them hero status in Mexico. Like other volunteers who dug their neighbors free from the rubble with their bare hands, they have been lauded on social media and interviewed by reporters. And for once, the legal status of a group of Central Americans was not the story. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"906303447523315712"}"></div></p>
<p>As José Filiberto Velásquez, a Catholic priest at the Brothers of the Road shelter, <a href="http://aristeguinoticias.com/1009/mexico/migrantes-ayudan-a-limpiar-hogares-derrumbados-por-terremoto-en-el-istmo/">told one Mexican reporter</a>, these migrants have shown Mexicans through their actions that, quite simply, “immigrants are good people.”</p>
<h2>Pact of the defeated</h2>
<p>The Central American migrants’ story is just one example of the <a href="http://expansion.mx/nacional/2015/09/19/solidaridad-el-valor-que-mexico-hallo-entre-los-escombros-de-1985">spirit of national solidarity</a> that carried Mexico through the days after the two killer September quakes. </p>
<p>After Mexico City’s Sept. 19 temblor, <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/mexico/2017/09/23/mexico-shows-resilience-solidarity-aftermath-quake-latest-crisis">lines of citizens</a> formed next to collapsed buildings to clear broken pieces of buildings covering victims. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/world/americas/mexico-city-earthquake-photos.html">Brigades of volunteers</a> offered food, clothing, water and other aid. <a href="https://www.eater.com/2017/9/28/16376566/mexico-city-earthquake-relief-contramar">Restaurants</a> became relief centers. </p>
<p>Social media activists quickly organized, tweeting information on exactly what assistance or supplies were needed, and where, under the hashtag <a href="http://www.verificado19s.org/">#Verificado19S</a>.</p>
<p>After a frightful year in which citizens also lived through <a href="https://theconversation.com/governors-gone-wild-mexico-faces-a-lost-generation-of-corrupt-leaders-76858">half a dozen high-profile government corruption scandals</a>, one of the world’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-mexico-actually-the-worlds-second-most-murderous-nation-77897">highest murder rates</a> and nonstop <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-new-plan-for-facing-trump-resistance-73490">insults from the president of the United States</a>, Mexico has emerged from its two natural disasters with a renewed sense of <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-earthquake-pride-20170925-story.html">national pride</a>. </p>
<p>Even though construction began on eight <a href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/cnnmoney/2017/10/06/trump-border-wall-prototypes.cnn">prototypes of Trump’s proposed border wall</a> in San Diego, Calif., just six days after the second earthquake, the mood in Mexico today is almost optimistic.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"912755235977908224"}"></div></p>
<p>The solidarity on display recalls what Argentinian writer Ernesto Sábato <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Antes_del_fin.html?id=ttJIAAAAYAAJ&redir_esc=y">calls</a> “the pact of the defeated.” In a world full of “horror, treason and envy,” Sábato writes in his memoir, “Antes del Fin,” it’s often “the most unprivileged part of humanity” that shows everyone else the path to salvation. </p>
<p>Right now in Mexico, earthquake-impacted locals and undocumented migrants alike are working together to rebuild their futures. In facing the years of hard recovery and U.S. antagonism ahead of it, a “pact of the defeated” may be as good a starting point as any.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A brigade of migrants from Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala have interrupted their trek north to stay in Mexico and support earthquake recovery efforts.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/827272017-09-09T12:51:53Z2017-09-09T12:51:53ZCould Trump be holding Dreamers hostage to make Mexico pay for his border wall?<p>Fulfilling one of United States president Donald Trump’s <a href="http://time.com/4927100/donald-trump-daca-past-statements/">campaign promises</a>, US Attorney General Jeff Sessions recently <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-sessions-delivers-remarks-daca">announced</a> the end of the <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/archive/consideration-deferred-action-childhood-arrivals-daca">Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)</a> programme. The initiative, launched by former president Barack Obama in 2012, allows people brought to the US illegally as children the temporary right to live, study and work in the country.</p>
<p>DACA protections will begin <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/daca2017">to expire</a> in six months, giving the US Congress a short window to legislate the now precarious futures of the 787,580 so-called “Dreamers” who currently <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/senate-bill/1291">benefit from the programme</a>. </p>
<p>In Mexico, as in <a href="http://time.com/4928812/donald-trump-dreamers-daca/">the US</a>, Sessions’ announcement was met with distress. Nearly 80% of the programme’s recipients were born in Mexico, and ending DACA exposes 618,342 undocumented young Mexicans (as well as 28,371 Salvadorans, 19,792 Guatemalans and 18,262 Hondurans) to deportation. Many in this group, who range in age from 15 to 36, were brought to the US as babies.</p>
<p>There’s been some <a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-477291552/leon-krauze-con-alejandro-aguirre-en-oliva-noticias">speculation</a> that the US president is using DACA as a bargaining chip. North of the border, commentators think this is about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/opinion/swap-daca-wall-funding.html?_r=0">making a deal with Democrats</a> in Congress. </p>
<p>But as a Mexican scholar of US-Mexico political history, I would argue that the DACA decision is more like a power play in Trump’s ongoing battle with the government of Mexico. So far President Enrique Peña Nieto has refused the White House’s <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/901804388649500672">demands</a> that his country pay for the proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wall-and-the-beast-trumps-triumph-from-the-mexican-side-of-the-border-68559">southern border wall.</a> And he only agreed to <a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2017/september/trilateral-statement-conclusion-0">renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement</a> after Trump threatened to withdraw the US from it.</p>
<p>White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders all but confirmed that Trump sees DACA as a political weapon when she acceded to a reporter’s assertion that the administration “seemed to be saying…if we’re going to allow Dreamers to stay in this country, we want a wall”.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders on how DACA relates the proposed US-Mexico border wall.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Either way, I’d contend that Donald Trump is not only holding nearly a million innocent people hostage, trying to exchange dreams for bricks, he’s also neglecting the complex history of Mexican migration to the US – a centuries-long tale that, like all national borders, has (at least) two sides. </p>
<h2>Where DREAMS come true</h2>
<p>Long before Trump ran for president, American politicians <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=GUUwDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT169&lpg=PT169&dq=presidentes+estados+unidos+culpan+mexico+migracion&source=bl&ots=Y_qO8-4uqy&sig=B0q5EQhws4Xywl6aYzsArfF7OFw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjSp7fEvZPWAhVHi5QKHRh8Bvs4ChDoAQhkMAc#v=onepage&q=presidentes%20estados%20unidos%20culpan%20mexico%20migracion&f=false">blamed</a> Mexico for not doing enough to keep poor citizens from migrating northward. Mexicans, in turn, tend to blame the US for creating the demand for cheap labour.</p>
<p>The two cross-border problems are <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Labor_Organizations_in_the_United_States.html?id=rYQFAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">deeply intertwined</a>. And because the US and Mexico have both benefited from undocumented migration, each country’s efforts to control it have been ambiguous at best.</p>
<p>It is true that Mexico’s economy has long been unable to provide enough decent work for its people. Though unemployment has ranged from 3% to 4% for the last <a href="https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS">two decades</a>, underemployment is deep. In 2016, <a href="http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/la-realidad-del-empleo-y-desempleo-en-mexico.html">14.52%</a> of the Mexican labour force was either working fewer than 35 hours per week or being paid under the meagre daily minimum wage (<a href="http://www.sat.gob.mx/informacion_fiscal/tablas_indicadores/paginas/salarios_minimos.aspx">US$4.50</a> a day). </p>
<p>For Mexico, then, migration is a safety valve, releasing social tensions that would arise if impoverished migrants stayed home. Mexicans abroad also send large amounts of money to their families in the form of remittances, injecting some <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/remittances-to-mexico-hit-record-27-billion-in-2016-1485978810">US$27 billion</a> into the Mexican economy last year.</p>
<p>Simple economics, however, teach us that demand begets supply. For generations, the modern US economy has thrived on low-wage Mexican labour. Even when nativism surged under president Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921), who signed the <a href="http://library.uwb.edu/Static/USimmigration/39%20stat%20874.pdf">Immigration Act of 1917</a> barring Asian immigration, Congress allowed continued recruitment of Mexicans to til American fields and lay American railroad tracks.</p>
<p>This trend continued throughout the 20th century. In 1942, the US and Mexico jointly instituted the <a href="http://braceroarchive.org/about">Bracero programme</a>, under which millions of Mexican labourers were hired to work agricultural jobs in the US while many able-bodied American men were off fighting World War II. </p>
<p>While under contract, <em>braceros</em> were given housing and paid a minimum wage of thirty cents an hour. By the time the programme ended, in 1964 (nearly two decades after the war’s end), the US had sponsored some <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Inside_the_State.html?id=2WMPAAAAYAAJ&redir_esc=y">5 million border crossings</a> in 24 states. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185314/original/file-20170908-32313-351xae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185314/original/file-20170908-32313-351xae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185314/original/file-20170908-32313-351xae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185314/original/file-20170908-32313-351xae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185314/original/file-20170908-32313-351xae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185314/original/file-20170908-32313-351xae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185314/original/file-20170908-32313-351xae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Braceros workers came legally to work in the US during World War II. Here, a group of Braceros crossing the border at Mexicali in 1954.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/MexicaliBraceros%2C1954.jpg">Los Angeles Times photographic archive, UCLA Library via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Workers who came into the US illegally were swiftly incorporated into the Bracero system, too. One of the more bizarre practices in the history of US immigration policy was the so-called “<a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Los_Mojados.html?id=JMJQAAAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y">drying out</a>” of “wetbacks”, a derogatory official term for undocumented workers.</p>
<p>When the Border Patrol arrested a “wet” worker on a farm, officials would transport him to the border to set foot on Mexican soil – i.e., ritualistically “deport” him – and then allow him to step back into the US, where he would be hired to work legally as a <em>bracero</em>.</p>
<p>Mexicans have been crossing the border ever since, hoping to find the steady work and eventual acceptance that the Bracero programme once offered. In the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2061740">1965-1986 period</a>, for example, undocumented Mexicans made approximately 27.9 million entries into the US (offset by 23.3 million departures). In that same period approximately 4.6 million established residence in the country. </p>
<p>Without Bracero-style government support, American citizens and firms have simply employed those migrants under the table. Undocumented Mexicans dominate the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-farmers-depend-on-illegal-immigrants-100541644/162082.html">US agricultural sector</a>, but they are also construction workers, line cooks, landscapers – even <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article16519040.html">Wall Street brokers and journalists</a>.</p>
<p>In 1986, Ronald Reagan signed the <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-100/pdf/STATUTE-100-Pg3445.pdf">Immigration Reform and Control Act</a>, a crackdown that promised tighter security at the Mexican border and strict penalties for employers who hired undocumented workers. However, the bill also offered amnesty to immigrants who had entered the country before 1982.</p>
<p>The term “Dreamers” itself refers to another American attempt at immigration reform, the bipartisan <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/senate-bill/1291">Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act</a> of 2001, which would have offered permanent legal residency to young people brought to the US as infants. </p>
<p>That bill was never passed. The Obama administration devised the DACA programme as a compromise to protect those young people, many of whom <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/05/dreamers-daca-trump-ends-program-fears-for-future">have never known any country but the US</a>. </p>
<h2>Bricks for dreams</h2>
<p>Chicana scholar Gloria Anzaldúa once <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Borderlands.html?id=yV1yAAAAMAAJ">described</a> the border as “<em>una herida abierta</em>” – an open wound – where “the Third World grates against the first and bleeds”. The Dreamers are children born of this wound.</p>
<p>Their uncertain fate has moved Mexicans, offering president Peña Nieto a rare chance to occupy the moral high ground. His administration has been ridden by successive scandals for months, including very public <a href="https://theconversation.com/governors-gone-wild-mexico-faces-a-lost-generation-of-corrupt-leaders-76858">corruption</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-many-mexicans-this-government-spying-scandal-feels-eerily-familiar-79981">illegal espionage</a> on Mexican citizens. </p>
<p>Peña Nieto <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KbFpt0MKYA">conveyed his support for</a> DACA recipients in his September 2 State of the Union address, saying: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I send affectionate greetings to the young beneficiaries of the administrative measure that protects those who arrived as infants to the United States. To all of you, young dreamers, our great recognition, admiration and solidarity without reservations.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He later <a href="https://twitter.com/EPN/status/905169923478917120">tweeted</a> that any Dreamers deported to Mexico would be welcomed back “with open arms”, <a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/el-gobierno-de-mexico-lamenta-profundamente-la-cancelacion-del-programa-de-accion-diferida-para-los-llegados-en-la-infancia-daca">offering</a> them access to credit, education, scholarships and health services.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"905169923478917120"}"></div></p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/el-gobierno-de-mexico-lamenta-profundamente-la-cancelacion-del-programa-de-accion-diferida-para-los-llegados-en-la-infancia-daca">statement</a>, the Mexican Foreign Ministry acknowledged its northern neighbour’s sovereign right to determine its immigration policy but expressed “profound regret” that “thousands of young people” have been thrust into a state of turmoil and fear.</p>
<p>Trump seems willing to use any tactic necessary to get his wall built. If the US Congress does finally agree on a way to protect the Dreamers, it will give these young immigrants the American future they deserve, but no wall – be it Mexican-funded or otherwise – will stop other young Mexicans from trying to build their own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From south of the border, Trump seems to be using DACA as a diplomatic weapon in his ongoing power struggle with the Mexican government. That just hurts 800,000 people and helps President Peña Nieto.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/814442017-08-16T01:37:19Z2017-08-16T01:37:19ZTrump’s threat to withdraw from NAFTA may hit a hurdle: The US Constitution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182149/original/file-20170815-6110-1uokhee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Constitution may burst Trump's threat to withdraw from NAFTA. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Mel Evans</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Aug. 16, representatives of the U.S., Canada and Mexico formally began renegotiating the <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/north-american-free-trade-agreement-nafta">North American Free Trade Agreement</a> (NAFTA), an accord that has governed matters of trade and security on the continent for 23 years. </p>
<p>President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f4c269e-2b68-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7">has repeatedly threatened</a> to withdraw the United States from NAFTA and similar trade agreements if other nations are unwilling to renegotiate to terms he likes.</p>
<p>Whether you agree with him or not, his threat to unilaterally back out of NAFTA and other trade deals on his hit list may be a hollow one for a simple reason: the U.S. Constitution. </p>
<p>Our country’s founding document places limits on a president’s ability to cease complying with the provisions of a U.S. trade agreement – absent congressional approval. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182152/original/file-20170815-5485-1erllzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182152/original/file-20170815-5485-1erllzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182152/original/file-20170815-5485-1erllzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182152/original/file-20170815-5485-1erllzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182152/original/file-20170815-5485-1erllzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182152/original/file-20170815-5485-1erllzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182152/original/file-20170815-5485-1erllzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Trump met with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto at the G20 Summit in Hamburg in July.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A perfect negotiating strategy</h2>
<p>The U.S. recently <a href="https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/NAFTAObjectives.pdf">released its objectives</a> for renegotiating NAFTA. The threat to withdraw if those objectives are not met is an element of the U.S. negotiating strategy that deserves attention. </p>
<p>President Trump comes to the table after repeatedly declaring his intention to scrap NAFTA <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-nafta-tpp-trade-speech-2016-6">during the campaign</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/26/trump-close-to-notifying-canada-mexico-of-intent-to-withdraw-from-nafta/">reportedly going as far as</a> to prepare an executive order in April to begin withdrawal.</p>
<p>Despite the apparent change of heart, he insists that <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/04/27/remarks-president-trump-meeting-president-macri-argentina">he stands prepared</a> to terminate NAFTA if he is “unable to make a fair deal.” </p>
<p>Although NAFTA has been the main target of Trump’s displeasure, it’s not the only one. </p>
<p>The president <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/usa-trump-southkorea-idINKBN17U0B2">said roughly the same thing</a> about the <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/korus-fta">U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement</a> (known as KORUS), declaring that “we are going to renegotiate that deal or terminate it.”</p>
<p>From a negotiating standpoint, threatening to withdraw makes perfect sense. If the United States isn’t willing to opt out of a trade deal, other nations have little incentive to offer a better one. The issue is murkier, however, from a legal perspective. </p>
<p>The Constitution is oddly silent on the question of how the United States ends its international commitments. Most foreign relations lawyers believe that the president has the authority to withdraw from treaties <a href="http://www.thealiadviser.org/us-foreign-relations-law/authority-suspend-terminate-withdraw-treaties/">without congressional consent</a>, and presidents of both parties have acted on that basis. </p>
<p>But trade agreements are different from, say, defense agreements, where the courts have declined to restrain the president’s unilateral termination power. The Constitution plainly assigns power over the policy areas covered by trade agreements – foreign trade and tariffs (taxes levied on imported goods) – to Congress, not the president.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182146/original/file-20170815-21358-1uqar2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182146/original/file-20170815-21358-1uqar2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182146/original/file-20170815-21358-1uqar2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182146/original/file-20170815-21358-1uqar2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182146/original/file-20170815-21358-1uqar2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182146/original/file-20170815-21358-1uqar2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182146/original/file-20170815-21358-1uqar2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This photo made available by the U.S. National Archives shows a portion of the first page of the United States Constitution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Archives via AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Constitutional limits</h2>
<p>Article I, Sec. 8 of the Constitution <a href="http://www.annenbergclassroom.org/page/article-i-section-8">provides</a> that “Congress shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises” and “regulate commerce with foreign Nations.” Congress uses these powers to pass legislation that translates each trade agreement into federal law. </p>
<p>To be sure, since the 1930s Congress <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44707.pdf">has used these laws</a> to delegate responsibility for setting tariffs to the president. The <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/103/hr3450">NAFTA Implementation Act</a>, for example, is a federal law that grants the president the authority to set tariffs in accordance with the terms of NAFTA. </p>
<p>But even if the United States were no longer bound by NAFTA as an international agreement, the NAFTA Implementation Act would remain on the books unless Congress repealed it. The president would thus likely still be bound by federal law to set tariffs that complied with NAFTA.</p>
<p>If NAFTA ceased to exist, wouldn’t the legislation that assumes NAFTA is in place also lose its force? The legislation implementing more recent free trade agreements says as much explicitly. For example, the statute that implements KORUS states that it <a href="https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ41/PLAW-112publ41.pdf">“shall cease to have effect”</a> on the date that KORUS itself terminates. </p>
<p>The thing is, the Supreme Court has held this kind of provision unconstitutional. In <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/97-1374.ZS.html">Clinton v. New York</a>, the Supreme Court ruled that Congress cannot delegate to the president the authority to unilaterally repeal a statute. That case struck down the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1998/02/13/us/us-judge-rules-line-item-veto-act-unconstitutional.html">Line Item Veto Act</a>, which allowed the president sign a bill into law but then unilaterally “cancel” individual spending measures within the new law. </p>
<p>The same logic should apply to trade agreements. The president may very well be able to withdraw from international agreements like NAFTA and KORUS without further congressional authorization. But the president cannot constitutionally ignore or cancel the domestic laws passed by Congress simply by withdrawing from an international commitment. </p>
<p>In other words, even if the United States leaves NAFTA, the president will still be bound to implement the agreement’s rules on the terms dictated by Congress until Congress says otherwise. </p>
<h2>Doubts on delegation</h2>
<p>President Trump might have another problem too. </p>
<p>The Constitution explicitly gives Congress the power to set tariffs and govern foreign commerce. Congress, in turn, usually delegates this authority to set tariff rates to the president. The constitutional <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/2014/12/scotus-for-law-students-non-delegation-doctrine-returns-after-long-hiatus/">“nondelegation doctrine</a>,” however, requires that Congress establish standards to guide the president’s choices when he exercises delegated authority. </p>
<p>A growing number of judges and commentators have urged the courts to more strictly enforce the <a href="http://law.missouri.edu/lawreview/files/2017/06/8.-Kritikos.pdf">nondelegation doctrine</a>. Most notably, President Trump’s appointee to the Supreme Court, Neil Gorsuch (for whom, in full disclosure, I clerked), has expressed skepticism about the breadth of some <a href="http://library.law.virginia.edu/gorsuchproject/u-s-v-nichols/">congressional delegations</a>. </p>
<p>Requiring that tariffs (or other trade policies) be set in accordance with trade agreements like NAFTA satisfies the nondelegation doctrine. But if the president can evade the standards Congress has imposed by withdrawing from trade agreements, then arguably Congress has violated the Constitution by failing to sufficiently constrain the president’s authority. </p>
<p>In other words, laws like the NAFTA Implementation Act that implement trade agreements could be unconstitutional if the president were free to ignore them. To avoid this constitutional problem, courts would likely require that Congress act before the president can cease complying with the laws that implement U.S. trade agreements. </p>
<h2>A better strategy</h2>
<p>President Trump, of course, has other tools at his disposal to increase pressure on our trading partners to renegotiate trade deals. </p>
<p>He can use the rules and institutions of trade agreements themselves to challenge unlawful trade practices, as the administration has already announced <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/03/01/518026293/trump-trade-agenda-looks-past-wto">it intends to do</a> at the World Trade Organization.</p>
<p>But if he is serious about the threat of withdrawal, the president’s best strategy may be to seek legislation authorizing him to retaliate against our trading partners if negotiations are not successful. </p>
<p>That legislation may be difficult to get through a Congress that is generally pro-free trade. But elements in both parties seem to have an appetite for rethinking what trade agreements should look like. And the president has defied expectations before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Meyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Trump team begins renegotiating NAFTA with Canada and Mexico, a key plank in its strategy – a threat to withdraw – may be a hollow one.Tim Meyer, Professor of Law, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/815972017-07-27T13:40:32Z2017-07-27T13:40:32ZTrump’s ‘America first’ strategy for NAFTA talks won’t benefit US workers<p>The Trump administration is plowing ahead with plans to renegotiate the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/nafta-8512">North American Free Trade Agreement</a> (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, with <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/19/news/economy/nafta-negotiation-first-round/index.html">talks beginning</a> Aug. 16. </p>
<p>Having made restoring the United States’ manufacturing might a cornerstone of his <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/02/28/517565701/trumps-america-first-agenda-marks-sharp-break-in-u-s-economic-policy">“America first” nationalism</a>, Trump seems to think that obtaining what he believes would be a better “deal” with our two closest neighbors will accomplish that goal. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, renegotiating NAFTA – especially <a href="https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/NAFTAObjectives.pdf">as planned by Trump’s trade team</a> – is unlikely to bring significant benefits to U.S. workers. </p>
<h2>The wrong objectives</h2>
<p>Although plausible estimates of job losses caused by U.S. trade with Mexico range up to <a href="http://www.epi.org/publication/heading_south_u-s-mexico_trade_and_job_displacement_after_nafta1/">nearly 700,000</a>, the tweaks to NAFTA proposed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would not bring most of those jobs back.</p>
<p>Lighthizer said <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-nafta-statement-idUSKBN1A2272">the administration’s top objective</a> is to shrink the U.S. trade deficits with Canada and Mexico. The real objective, however, should not be to improve bilateral trade balances for their own sake but rather to foster an integrated industrial structure in North America that can provide jobs and higher wages for workers in all three countries. </p>
<p>In fairness, there are some positive elements in the USTR’s proposed negotiating agenda. For example, the administration wants to strengthen NAFTA’s rules of origin to ensure that only goods with substantial amounts of North American content qualify for preferential (often zero) tariffs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179894/original/file-20170726-29425-1wx53s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179894/original/file-20170726-29425-1wx53s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179894/original/file-20170726-29425-1wx53s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179894/original/file-20170726-29425-1wx53s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179894/original/file-20170726-29425-1wx53s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179894/original/file-20170726-29425-1wx53s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179894/original/file-20170726-29425-1wx53s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will lead the government’s renegotiation of NAFTA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lighthizer has also proposed moving <a href="http://wakeforestlawreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Studer_LawReview_04.10.pdf">labor rights and environmental standards</a> into the main body of the agreement and making them enforceable, which would be an improvement over the current toothless side agreements. </p>
<p>But the proposal also includes various in-your-face elements that the Canadians and Mexicans are sure to reject or demand for themselves as well. One such objective is the right to pursue “buy American” policies. Lighthizer also wants to strengthen the ability of the U.S. to impose trade restrictions such as tariffs and anti-dumping duties on the other two NAFTA members. </p>
<p>Rather than punishing the other NAFTA members, it would make far more sense for the three parties to focus on better coordinating their policies to counter unfair trade practices from outside the continent, such as <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international/314341-wto-case-sheds-light-on-chinas-illegal-practices">import surges in steel</a> from China. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the proposed changes to NAFTA would not even begin to address the greatest problem affecting most U.S. workers: the <a href="http://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/">widening gap</a> between rising labor productivity and stagnant inflation-adjusted wages. In fact, this gap is rising in Mexico as well, suggesting that Mexican workers have not benefited from the NAFTA trade strategy of their government either.</p>
<p>None of the administration’s proposed changes would change the fact that manufacturing labor costs in Mexico average <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/ilcprogram/index.cfm?id=38269">only about 16 percent of U.S. levels</a>, a gap that will continue to pull many industries south of the border regardless of any revisions to NAFTA. </p>
<p>In fact, since a revised NAFTA would not do much (if anything) to raise Mexican wages either, it would do nothing to end the economic disparities that underlie both the outsourcing of jobs to Mexico and the flow of Mexican workers to the U.S. It would also do nothing to boost the bargaining power of U.S. workers relative to their employers, who are more free to move jobs abroad thanks to trade agreements like NAFTA.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179919/original/file-20170727-22940-1najuky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179919/original/file-20170727-22940-1najuky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179919/original/file-20170727-22940-1najuky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179919/original/file-20170727-22940-1najuky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179919/original/file-20170727-22940-1najuky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179919/original/file-20170727-22940-1najuky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179919/original/file-20170727-22940-1najuky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A technician repairs computer monitors at Amcor Service Solutions, a part of Tecma Group, which operates 18 maquiladoras for 33 companies in the Mexican northern border city of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Raymundo Ruiz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What we should do instead</h2>
<p>My own research on <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2753/IJP0891-1916430201">NAFTA</a> and the <a href="https://www.elgaronline.com/abstract/journals/ejeep/13-2/ejeep.2016.02.05.xml">U.S.</a> and Mexican economies – as well as
<a href="http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/policy_research/pardee.html">the work of others</a> – suggests there are several things that the U.S., Canada and Mexico could to to make North America a more competitive trading zone and benefit all of its workers. </p>
<p>One of the best ways would be for all three countries to commit to investing more in their public resources, such as infrastructure, education and technology. Although Trump promised a “massive” infrastructure plan during the campaign, he has backed away from making a significant federal investment, and his budget proposes <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/05/22/trump-budget-seeks-huge-cuts-to-disease-prevention-and-medical-research-departments/?utm_term=.7d1450d97cc9">large cuts</a> to <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2017/0601/How-Trump-s-budget-could-affect-basic-research">science and research and development</a>.</p>
<p>Another serious problem is that labor’s share of national income <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LABSHPUSA156NRUG">has been falling in both the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/project/inequality-giants">Mexico</a> because workers’ wages are not keeping up with their growing productivity. In other words, the average worker is producing more and more but not seeing any increase in his or her paycheck.</p>
<p>A first step for addressing that would be an increase in each country’s minimum wage to a level that would afford a family a decent (above-poverty) living in terms of its own standards, and then to index minimum wages to inflation so as to prevent the erosion of their purchasing power over time. At present, the minimum wage in Mexico is <a href="http://www.coneval.org.mx/SalaPrensa/Documents/INGRESO-POBREZA-SALARIOS.pdf">about a fifth of the poverty line</a>, while in the U.S. families earning the minimum wage <a href="https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/what-are-annual-earnings-full-time-minimum-wage-worker">have a hard time</a> staying out of poverty. </p>
<p>If the Trump administration seriously wants to curtail illegal immigration and reduce incentives for U.S. companies to open factories south of the border, it needs to make sure that a renegotiated NAFTA benefits Mexico’s economy. That’s the only way to push Mexican wages higher and thus turn Mexico into more of a market for U.S. products than a competitor for U.S. jobs. </p>
<p>An “America first” negotiating strategy that focuses only on what the U.S. gains while impoverishing Mexico with greater trade restrictions would only worsen the problems that Trump says he wants to address. </p>
<h2>Toward a shared prosperity</h2>
<p>We should not kid ourselves that a few tweaks to NAFTA will achieve the kind of shared and inclusive prosperity that would truly benefit workers in the U.S., Mexico and Canada.</p>
<p>In the end, what would really put workers first across North America would be policies that would lift up all of us together. U.S. and Mexican leaders promised that NAFTA would accomplish that, but as <a href="https://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/publications/docbase/details.html?docId=14710928">my research with Mexican economist Gerardo Esquivel</a> shows, the agreement failed to raise Mexican wages and living standards closer to U.S. levels.</p>
<p>Trump’s combative, America first negotiating strategy would only take the U.S. and its neighbors in the wrong direction, leading to a Balkanized North American industrial structure that would be less competitive globally. Rather than focusing on shared growth, the administration sees a zero sum game in which for every benefit going to Mexico or Canada, the U.S. loses. </p>
<p>As Canada and Mexico are the United States’ two largest export markets, we should be working together to make North American industries more competitive and boost wages on all sides of our two borders. This would be the right way to create jobs and promote prosperity in the U.S. as well as its neighbors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert A. Blecker is a Research Associate of the Economic Policy Institute; the views expressed here are his alone and should not be attributed to EPI. He has also worked as a paid expert witness for steel pipe producers and other steel companies in anti-dumping duty and safeguard tariff cases involving various countries including NAFTA members.</span></em></p>The administration’s objectives for NAFTA negotiations with Canada and Mexico, set to begin in August, will do little to help American workers, let alone create shared prosperity across the continent.Robert A. Blecker, Professor of Economics, American UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/771412017-05-12T02:00:57Z2017-05-12T02:00:57ZBefore Trump, Mexicans really liked the US<p>Donald Trump’s antagonistic rhetoric toward Mexico has caused an increase in anti-American sentiment among Mexicans.</p>
<p>Today, many in Mexico reject Trump’s policies and fear his administration, citing it as fascist, <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/entrada-de-opinion/articulo/jorge-camil/nacion/2015/11/20/la-gestapo-de-trump">authoritarian</a>, populist, dictatorial, xenophobic, misogynist or simply <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/opinion/jose-cardenas/2015/06/19/1030279">an aberration</a>.</p>
<p>It wasn’t always this way. Since the mid-1980s, Mexican politicians, intellectuals, journalists and business professionals promoted a positive view of the U.S. Pro-American sentiment was handed down through generations.</p>
<p>As a scholar of how other countries view the United States, I believe Mexican anti-Americanism is bad news for bilateral relations. Considering the U.S. exported more then US$19 billion to Mexico just <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html">in January 2017</a> and 1 million people <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/07/19/opinion-million-people-cross-border-legally-every-day-and-that-good-thing.html">legally cross the border</a> every day, this political and social turbulence should be concerning. A return to the pre-Trump Mexican sentiment regarding the U.S. could take many years, if not decades.</p>
<h2>Relations and trust in decline</h2>
<p>In January 2015, the Mexican polling company Parametria <a href="http://www.parametria.com.mx/carta_parametrica.php?cp=4933">published a survey</a> showing that 49 percent of Mexicans considered U.S.-Mexican relations to be either good or very good. Two years later, only 21 percent considered relations to be good or very good. And, 49 percent of Mexicans said U.S.-Mexican relations were either bad or very bad.</p>
<p>A poll by the Mexican newspaper Reforma conducted <a href="https://gruporeforma-blogs.com/encuestas/?s=trump">in August 2016</a> revealed that 86 percent of Mexicans had an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. Only 5 percent maintained a favorable one. In the same poll, 95 percent of the Mexicans rejected Trump’s position on immigration and the proposal of building a wall along the Mexican border.</p>
<p>Likewise, 85 percent of Mexicans agreed that if Trump implements the changes he has been advocating, Mexico will be at least somewhat affected. About 73 percent showed significant concern for the future of Mexico. And, 62 percent of the population agreed with the statement that Mexico should strongly defend its own interests, even if that leads to a confrontation with Trump.</p>
<h2>Mexico’s once-stable view</h2>
<p>A positive view of the United States among the Mexican people has, in recent history, actually been quite stable. Starting in 2004 the Center for Teaching and Research in Economics in Mexico conducted <a href="http://libreriacide.com/librospdf/DTEI-156.pdf">a series</a> of <a href="http://www.libreriacide.com/librospdf/DTEI-257.pdf">surveys</a> every two years, with help from the Mexican Council on Foreign Affairs in 2004 and 2006. They asked Mexicans to rate how favorably they viewed the U.S. and 24 other countries on a scale from 0 to 100. Countries were then ranked most to least favorable by their scores. Results from 2016 will be released in June.</p>
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<p>For 10 years – from <a href="http://www.libreriacide.com/librospdf/DTEI-257.pdf">2004</a> to 2014 – the United States, with the exception of 2008, remained the first or second most favorable country for Mexicans. The only year the U.S. fell <a href="http://libreriacide.com/librospdf/DTEI-188.pdf">below second place</a> was 2008, but even then it scored 62 out of 100. The lower ranking was likely related to low approval ratings of the American invasion to Iraq and Afghanistan, in Mexico and around the world.</p>
<p>Several forces contributed to a pro-American perspective. Officially, the government promoted a pro-American agenda in order to highlight the benefits of an economic alliances with the U.S. </p>
<p>Unofficially, the presence of <a href="http://www.jstor.org.zeus.tarleton.edu:82/stable/pdf/2567048.pdf">American culture</a> in music, TV and cinema is also contributed. The constant movement of Mexican immigrants to and from the United States brought not only American goods to Mexico, but also American traditions, practices and ideals.</p>
<p>Affinity toward the U.S. <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/filelegacydocs/Jwhi811.pdf">also grew</a> with the success of the American economy during the 1980s and 1990s. At the time, Mexico was <a href="https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/september/the-mexican-1982-debt-crisis/">experiencing economic crisis</a> and devaluation of the peso. In 1992, Mexico formalized the integration of their economy with the United States by signing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).</p>
<h2>Beyond reaction?</h2>
<p>The change in numbers solidify the deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and Mexico. Mexicans have protested in front of the American Embassy in Mexico City. Walks have been <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/01/mexico-embajada-protesta-trump/">organized</a> to <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2017/02/13/1145977">disavow Trump</a> and his policies. Many in the <a href="http://www.milenio.com/firmas/hector_aguilar_camin_dia-con-dia/donald_trump-100_dias-politica_interna-comercio_internacional-frontera-muro_18_849095110.html">intellectual community</a> have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/01/04/mexico-stood-up-to-reagan-it-can-stand-up-to-trump-too/?utm_term=.27be643ccf48">condemned Trump’s views</a>. </p>
<p>Enrique Krauze, a Mexican intellectual, has <a href="http://aristeguinoticias.com/0203/entrevistas/donald-trump-es-un-perfecto-fascista-enrique-krauze-en-cnn/">repeatedly called Trump</a> “a perfect fascist” and has <a href="http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/02/03/opinion/1486142760_089776.html">declared Mexico</a> to be at war, though not militarily, with the United States. </p>
<p>For Mexicans, being immune to the offensive statements of Trump is difficult. Unfortunately, their reactive resentment may obscure a thoughtful critique of the United States, its policies, constituents and the structural reasons for Trump’s ascent to the White House. </p>
<p><em>Author’s note: Research assistant Bailey Ross contributed to the writing of this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jesus Velasco is Joe and Teresa Endowed Chair is Social Science at Tarleton State University and Non-Resident scholar of the Mexican Center at Rice University.</span></em></p>Can the U.S. recover its once positive image among Mexicans? Trade, immigration and cultural ties stand to suffer.Jesus Velasco, Joe and Teresa Endowed Chair in Social Sciences, Tarleton State University, Tarleton State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/771342017-05-04T22:17:53Z2017-05-04T22:17:53ZRewriting NAFTA has serious implications beyond just trade<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167994/original/file-20170504-20192-kpkrac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Customs and Border Protection officer hands documents to a woman entering the U.S. from Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brad Doherty/AP Photo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald J. Trump has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/business/nafta-trade-deal-trump.html">called</a> the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) our “worst trade deal.”</p>
<p>After flip-flopping between <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSKCN0ZE0Z0">scrapping NAFTA</a> altogether and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/13/world/canada/justin-trudeau-donald-trump.html">saying</a> that the agreement required only tweaks, President Trump is trying to force a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/trump-aides-in-raging-debate-over-how-quickly-to-move-on-nafta">renegotiation</a> of a deal that supports <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/north-american-free-trade-agreement-nafta">three million</a> American jobs.</p>
<p>While this may seem like just another trade dispute, albeit one repeatedly <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds257_e.htm">arbitrated</a> by the World Trade Organization, NAFTA isn’t just a trade deal. Since its inception, NAFTA has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423911000928">bound together</a> North America’s economic and security considerations. </p>
<p>America’s changing border policies – whether spurred by the 9/11 attacks or concerns over illegal immigration – have affected the economies of all three participating countries. The renegotiation of NAFTA may have serious implications not only for trade and the continental economy, but also for immigration and border security.</p>
<h2>The ties that bind</h2>
<p>From the moment that NAFTA came into effect, it was never a standalone trade agreement. To support free trade, a complex border management regime was needed. </p>
<p>Agreements like the 1995 <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/Ci51-95-2000E.pdf">Accord on Our Shared Border</a> explicitly linked the promotion of international trade with enhanced protection against illegal cross-border flows of drugs, goods and people. A focus on harmonizing border policies led to a proliferation of cooperative programs, including government working groups focused on <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/ondcppubs/publications/international/binational_2000/foreword.html">drug control</a> and <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/brdr-strtgs/brdr-lw-nfrcmnt/ntgrtd-brdr-nforcmnt-tms-en.aspx">multi-agency law enforcement teams</a> tackling cross-border criminal activity and terrorism. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.legislationline.org/documents/id/7543">SMART Border Declaration</a>, signed by the U.S. and Canada post-9/11, focused on balancing new security concerns with continued ease of trade. Programs like <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/travel/trusted-traveler-programs/fast">Free and Secure Trade (FAST)</a> were created to expedite commercial shipments by prescreened eligible carriers. Such programs allow border agents to devote less attention to certain shipments, freeing up time and resources. A similar program exists for prescreened <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/travel/trusted-traveler-programs/nexus">individual travelers</a>.</p>
<p>Shared interests in border security and economic competitiveness were also a key <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/beyond-border">focus</a> of the Obama administration. The extent of cooperation even led some scholars to call for a North American “<a href="http://www.cfr.org/world/trinational-call-north-american-economic-security-community-2010/p7914">security community</a>” with no internal borders.</p>
<p>Security cooperation in the name of economic gain, however, has not yet led to the wide open borders of the European Union. Immigration restrictions remain in place almost 25 years after NAFTA’s creation. They continue to be challenged by illegal border crossings from Mexico and <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/northern-aliens-around-100000-canadians-live-under-the-radar-in-u-s-as-illegal-immigrants">visa overstays</a> by Canadians. Security cooperation, too, has its limits. While all three countries have worked together on drug interdictions at sea, most efforts have involved only two of the three partners. </p>
<h2>A post-NAFTA world?</h2>
<p>As plans for President Trump’s “big, beautiful wall” on the U.S.-Mexico border continue, it should come as no surprise that an agreement aimed at swiftly moving goods, services and people across borders would be in the president’s sight. Any renegotiation of NAFTA may have serious consequences for the more than <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/">11 million Mexicans</a> and <a href="http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/canadian-immigrants-united-states">800,000 Canadians</a> living and working in the United States. </p>
<p>President Trump has repeatedly stated his support for “Buy American, Hire American” policies. He has backed up this talk with <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/04/18/presidential-executive-order-buy-american-and-hire-american">executive orders</a>. What, then, is the future of <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/temporary-workers/tn-nafta-professionals">NAFTA visas</a>, which allow doctors, engineers and teachers to work here, under a renegotiation? The administration’s recurring criticism of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/us/politics/executive-order-hire-buy-american-h1b-visa-trump.html">H1B visa</a> for highly skilled workers suggests that the elimination of NAFTA visas is likely. </p>
<p>Other important international agreements that link security and immigration may become wrapped up in the dispute over NAFTA. More than 435 <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/asylum-seekers-border-canada-us-1.4006228">asylum seekers</a> illegally crossed the U.S. border into Canada in the first two months of 2017. Canada has by and large accepted these asylum applications, even though the <a href="http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/laws-policy/menu-safethird.asp">Safe Third Country Agreement</a> was created to prevent such illicit crossings by coordinating refugee claims. </p>
<p>If employment restrictions in the U.S. increase, Canada may face a surge in immigration, legal and otherwise, that it is wholly unprepared for. Mexico too will face difficulties in absorbing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexico-prepares-to-absorb-a-wave-of-deportees-in-the-trump-era/2017/03/03/a7bd624a-f86c-11e6-aa1e-5f735ee31334_story.html?utm_term=.361c893b918b">returning nationals</a>.</p>
<p>Bad deal or not, NAFTA has fundamentally reshaped North America’s immigration and security policies. Any changes to NAFTA will certainly have repercussions that reach far beyond the economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77134/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Trisko Darden is Associate Director of Bridging the Gap, a public policy outreach initiative funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. </span></em></p>President Trump wants to renegotiate or eliminate NAFTA because of its impact on U.S. trade, but the accord is also a cornerstone of continental cooperation on security issues as well.Jessica Trisko Darden, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/746042017-05-01T02:00:36Z2017-05-01T02:00:36ZHow crossing the US-Mexico border became a crime<p>It was not always a crime to enter the United States without authorization. </p>
<p>In fact, for most of American history, immigrants could enter the United States without official permission and not fear criminal prosecution by the federal government.</p>
<p>That changed in 1929. On its surface, Congress’ <a href="http://people.sunyulster.edu/voughth/immlaws1929_48.htm">new prohibitions</a> on informal border crossings simply modernized the U.S. immigration system by compelling all immigrants to apply for entry. However, in my new book “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q28Q5NGlASY">City of Inmates</a>,” I detail how Congress outlawed border crossings with the specific intent of criminalizing, prosecuting and imprisoning Mexican immigrants.</p>
<p>Knowing this history is important now. On April 11, 2017, U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced his plan to step up prosecutions of unlawful entries, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-jeff-sessions-delivers-keynote-remarks-international-association-chiefs">saying</a> it’s time to “restore a lawful system of immigration.” This may read like a colorblind commitment to law and order. But the law Sessions has vowed to enforce was designed with racist intent.</p>
<h2>The Mexican immigration debate</h2>
<p>The criminalization of informal border crossings occurred amid an immigration boom from Mexico. </p>
<p>In 1900, about 100,000 Mexican immigrants resided in the United States.</p>
<p>By 1930, nearly 1.5 million Mexican immigrants lived north of the border. </p>
<p>As Mexican immigration surged, many in Congress were trying to restrict nonwhite immigration. By <a href="http://www2.fiu.edu/%7Erevellk/pad3802/Ngai.pdf">1924</a>, Congress had largely adopted a “whites only” immigration system, <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-immigration-order-is-bad-foreign-policy-72053">banning all Asian immigration</a> and cutting the number of immigrants allowed to enter the United States from anywhere other than Northern and Western Europe. But whenever Congress tried to cap the number of Mexicans allowed to enter the United States each year, southwestern employers fiercely objected.</p>
<p>U.S. employers had eagerly stoked the era’s Mexican immigration boom by recruiting Mexican workers to their southwestern farms, ranches and railroads, as well as their homes and mines. By the 1920s, western farmers were completely dependent on Mexican workers. </p>
<p>However, they also believed that Mexican immigrants would never permanently settle in the United States. As agribusiness lobbyist <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/title/seasonal-agricultural-laborers-from-mexico-hearings-before-the-committee-on-immigration-and-naturalization-sixty-ninth-congress-first-session-january-28-and-29-february-2-9-11-and-23-1926-on-hr-6741-hr-7559-hr-9036/oclc/82498588"> S. Parker Frisselle explained to Congress in 1926</a>, “The Mexican is a ‘homer.’ Like the pigeon he goes home to roost.” On Frisselle’s promise that Mexicans were “not immigrants” but, rather, “birds of passage,” western employers successfully defeated proposals to cap Mexican immigration to the United States during the 1920s.</p>
<p>The idea that Mexican immigrants often returned to Mexico contained some truth. Many <a href="https://academic.oup.com/maghis/article/23/4/25/935227/Mexican-Immigration-to-the-United-States">Mexican immigrants</a> engaged in cyclical migrations between their homes in Mexico and work in the United States. Yet, by the close of the 1920s, Mexicans were settling in large numbers across the Southwest. They bought homes and started newspapers, churches and businesses. And many Mexican immigrants in the United States started families, raising a new generation of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Becoming-Mexican-American-Ethnicity-1900-1945/dp/0195096487">Mexican-American children</a>. </p>
<p>Monitoring the rise of Mexican-American communities in southwestern states, the advocates of a whites-only immigration system charged western employers with recklessly courting Anglo-America’s racial doom. As the work of historian <a href="http://nataliamolinaphd.com/">Natalia Molina</a> details, they believed Mexicans were racially unfit to be U.S. citizens.</p>
<p>Western employers agreed that Mexicans should not be allowed to become U.S. citizens. “We, in California, would greatly prefer some set up in which our peak labor demands might be met and upon the completion of our harvest these laborers returned to their country,” Friselle told Congress. But western employers also wanted unfettered access to an unlimited number of Mexican laborers. “We need the labor,” they roared back at those who wanted to cap the number of Mexican immigrants allowed to enter the United States each year. </p>
<p>Amid the escalating conflict between employers in the West and advocates of restriction in Congress, a senator from Dixie proposed a compromise.</p>
<h2>Blease’s law</h2>
<p><a href="https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=hO1gAAAAIBAJ&sjid=uWMNAAAAIBAJ&pg=3029,5898411**">Senator Coleman Livingston Blease</a> hailed from the hills of South Carolina. In 1925, he entered Congress committed, above all else, to protecting white supremacy. In 1929, as restrictionists and employers tussled over the future of Mexican immigration, Blease proposed a way forward.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165929/original/file-20170419-2410-1u3u9tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165929/original/file-20170419-2410-1u3u9tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165929/original/file-20170419-2410-1u3u9tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165929/original/file-20170419-2410-1u3u9tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165929/original/file-20170419-2410-1u3u9tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165929/original/file-20170419-2410-1u3u9tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165929/original/file-20170419-2410-1u3u9tq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Senator Coleman Blease.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://hdl.loc.gov/loc.pnp/cph.3c05189">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to U.S. immigration officials, Mexicans made nearly one million official border crossings into the United States during the 1920s. They arrived at a port of entry, paid an entry fee and submitted to any required tests, such as literacy and health. </p>
<p>However, as U.S. immigration authorities reported, many other Mexican immigrants did not register for legal entry. Entry fees were prohibitively high for many Mexican workers. Moreover, U.S. authorities subjected Mexican immigrants, in particular, to kerosene baths and humiliating <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2006/feb/27/opinion/oe-romo27">delousing</a> procedures because they believed Mexican immigrants carried disease and filth on their bodies. Instead of traveling to a port of entry, many Mexicans informally crossed the border at will, as both U.S. and Mexican citizens had done for decades.</p>
<p>When the debate stalled over how many Mexicans to allow in each year, Blease shifted attention to stopping the large number of border crossings that took place outside ports of entry. He suggested criminalizing unmonitored entry. </p>
<p>According to Blease’s bill, “unlawfully entering the country” would be a misdemeanor, while unlawfully returning to the United States after deportation would be a felony. The idea was to force Mexican immigrants into an authorized and monitored stream that could be turned on and turned off at will at ports of entry. Any immigrant who entered the United States outside the bounds of this stream would be a criminal subject to fines, imprisonment and ultimately deportation. But it was a crime designed to impact Mexican immigrants, in particular.</p>
<p>Neither the western agricultural businessmen nor the restrictionists registered any objections. Congress passed Blease’s bill, the Immigration Act of March 4, 1929, and dramatically altered the story of crime and punishment in the United States. </p>
<h2>Caged</h2>
<p>With stunning precision, the criminalization of unauthorized entry caged thousands of Mexico’s “birds of passage.” By the end of 1930, the U.S. attorney general <a href="https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000521490">reported</a> prosecuting 7,001 cases of unlawful entry. By the end of the decade, U.S. attorneys had prosecuted more than 44,000 cases.</p>
<p>According to the U.S. Bureau of Prisons, the vast majority of immigrants imprisoned for breaking Blease’s law were Mexicans. Throughout the 1930s, Mexicans never comprised fewer than 85 percent of all immigration prisoners. Some years, that number rose to 99 percent. By the end of the decade, tens of thousands of Mexicans had been convicted of unlawfully entering or reentering the United States. The U.S. Bureau of Prisons built three new prisons in the U.S.-Mexico border region: La Tuna Prison in El Paso, Prison Camp #10 in Tucson and Terminal Island in Los Angeles.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167300/original/file-20170501-12994-1ily4ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">La Tuna detention farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.archives.gov/research/guide-fed-records/groups/129.html">U.S. Bureau of Prisons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Only the outbreak of World War II halted the Mexican immigrant prison boom of the 1930s. The war turned the attention of U.S. attorneys elsewhere, and Mexicans workers were desperately needed north of the border.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/1c90/a990eaacc1547420ce3c7dad9d58c39dca71.pdf">few exceptions</a>, prosecutions for unlawful entry and reentry remained low until 2005. As a measure of the war on terror, the George W. Bush administration directed U.S. attorneys to adopt an <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/iv-u-s-immigration-enforcement/">“enforcement with consequences”</a> strategy. In 2009, U.S. attorneys prosecuted more than <a href="http://grassrootsleadership.org/sites/default/files/reports/indefensible_book_web.pdf">50,000 cases</a> of unlawful entry or reentry. The <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2686276">Obama</a> administration continued the surge, betting that aggressive border enforcement would help bring a recalcitrant Congress to adopt comprehensive immigration reform. It did not. </p>
<p>By 2015, prosecutions for unlawful entry and reentry accounted for 49 percent of all federal prosecutions and the federal government had spent at least <a href="http://grassrootsleadership.org/sites/default/files/reports/indefensible_book_web.pdf">US$7 billion</a> to lock up unlawful border crossers. </p>
<p>Throughout this most recent surge, the disparate impact of criminalizing unlawful entry and reentry has endured. Today, Latinos, led by Mexicans and Central Americans, make up <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4392">92 percent</a> of all immigrants imprisoned for unlawful entry and reentry. </p>
<p>Attorney General Sessions still wants more. Traveling to southern Arizona to announce his plan to even more aggressively prosecute unlawful entry, he signaled that, in the years to come, most prosecutions will happen on the U.S.-Mexico border and will target <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/as-mexican-share-declined-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-fell-in-2015-below-recession-level/">Mexicans and Central Americans</a>. </p>
<p>When the number of Mexicans as well as Central Americans imprisoned on immigration charges soon booms, there will be nothing unwitting or colorblind about it. Congress first invented the crimes of unlawful entry and reentry with the purpose of criminalizing and imprisoning Mexican immigrants and it has delivered on that intent since 1929. The Sessions plan will bear a similar result and, in the process, discharge the racist design of Blease’s law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74604/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly Lytle Hernandez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump’s administration plans to ramp up prosecution of unauthorized border crossings. Here’s the story of how it became illegal in the first place.Kelly Lytle Hernandez, Associate Professor, History and African-American Studies, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/762042017-04-18T06:08:44Z2017-04-18T06:08:44ZReshaping NAFTA could be good for Mexico’s economy (and Brazil’s and Argentina’s, too)<p><em><strong>This article has been updated to reflect the latest developments on the North American Free Trade Agreement.</strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The United States will move swiftly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/27/donald-trump-to-stick-with-nafta-free-trade-pact-despite-vow-to-leave">to renegotiate</a> the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a 23-year-old tripartite deal that removed tariffs and significantly increased commerce between Canada, the United States and Mexico. </p>
<p>The deal has faced harsh criticism from Donald Trump as both candidate and as president. Previously, the White House had indicated that renegotiation of the deal – a key campaign promise – was <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-mexico-trade-idUSKBN16H27V">likely to start in late 2017</a>. </p>
<p>Now, president Trump appears eager to force a renegotation with Canada and Mexico, at one point indicating the US might even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/us/politics/nafta-executive-order-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0">exit the deal, according to an April 26 story in the New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>Trump has called NAFTA the “<a href="http://fortune.com/2016/09/27/presidential-debate-nafta-agreement/">worst trade deal ever</a>”, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-calls-us-mexico-trade-one-sided-heres-the-reality-2017-01-26">pointing out</a> that it has contributed to a US trade deficit with Mexico reaching <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html">US$63.2 billion last year</a>. </p>
<p>This is the country’s fourth-largest trade deficit, <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/trade-deficit-by-county-3306264">after China, Japan and Germany</a>. America’s deficit with the other NAFTA nation, Canada, was <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/trade-deficit-by-county-3306264">slightly over US$11 billion</a> in 2016. </p>
<p>But that’s only part of the story. Remove cars and auto part imports, for example, and the US deficit with Mexico <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/09/news/economy/us-mexico-trump-cars-imports-trade-deficit/">virtually disappears</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, NAFTA has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-us-should-treat-mexico-as-a-vital-partner-not-a-punching-bag-72350">been beneficial</a> to Mexico, Canada and the US alike. Since it was signed in 1994, foreign direct investments (FDI) in Mexico have averaged 2.6% of GDP (<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rodrigo-aguilera/mexico-foreign-direct-investment_b_2671967.html">compared to 1% for two decades before NAFTA</a>). At present, annual bilateral trade between the US and Mexico is running at US$580 billion. </p>
<h2>Agricultural gains</h2>
<p>It is not yet clear what such a renegotiation might include. But much of Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-anti-trade-tirades-recall-gops-protectionist-past-54631">outdated protectionist rhetoric</a> hinges on manufacturing, outsourcing of jobs to Mexico and immigration. Agriculture – a key link between the two nations – does not seem to have entered his calculations to date. </p>
<p>Globalisation may have contributed to manufacturing job losses in the US, but it has had significant benefits for the American agricultural sector. US exports of agricultural products to Mexico have increased nearly <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/documents/files/nafta_triumphant_updated_2015.pdf">fivefold since NAFTA was signed</a>. </p>
<p>For the 2014–15 crop marketing year, US corn production was 360 million metric tons, <a href="https://www.grains.org/buyingselling/corn">13% of which was exported</a>. Mexico accounted for 23% of these exports. </p>
<p>In 2016, Mexico imported <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-mexico-agriculture-idUSKBN15F2FS">US$17.9 billion in American agricultural products</a>: US$2.6 billion in corn, US$1.5 billion in soybeans, US$1.3 billion in pork and <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico">US$1.2 billion in dairy products</a>. </p>
<p>Around 98% of the corn that forms a staple of the Mexican diet comes <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/850a886c-108c-11e7-b030-768954394623">from the US</a>. Mexico also buys 7.8% of all US pork production.</p>
<p>What has been good for US farmers has actually hurt Mexican agriculture. Lulled by a steady supply of cheap US farm products and low transportation costs, and assuming that the good times will continue, Mexico has not diversified its agricultural imports. It depends heavily on US farmers to feed its people, endangering Mexico’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/17/food-fight-mexico-targets-american-corn-in-trump-trade-war/#7d0a6acf57ba">long-term food security</a>.</p>
<h2>America losing ground</h2>
<p>The US is the world’s top exporter of agricultural products, but there are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-16/should-farmers-fear-trump">other global breadbaskets</a>, including Brazil, Australia, Russia, Argentina and Ukraine. As these rivals have adopted more modern farming and agricultural practices and improved their transport and product-handling infrastructure in recent years, America’s global export share has been <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/agricultural-trade/">steadily declining</a>.</p>
<p>Political decisions have at times accelerated this decline. In 1979, the US <a href="http://www.heritage.org/trade/report/the-soviet-grain-embargo">banned grain sales to the then-Soviet Union</a> because of its invasion of Afghanistan. This forced the USSR to improve its own grain production, and, in 2016, Russia surpassed the US <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/af66f51e-6515-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227">for the first time in wheat exports</a>.</p>
<p>Might Donald Trump’s administration be facing a similar watershed moment for American agriculture?</p>
<p>As America threatens to close its agricultural export door, it has damaged Mexico’s confidence in the reliability of its major supplier – perhaps permanently. In a January 2017 Washington Post opinion piece, former Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ernesto-zedillo-mexico-can-thrive-without-trump/2017/01/27/0c873fee-e4ad-11e6-a453-19ec4b3d09ba_story.html?utm_term=.374023442ff3">wrote</a> that it was a “waste of time” to play “NAFTA tweaking games with the Trump Administration”.</p>
<p>Though Mexico currently has free trade agreements with 45 countries (<a href="http://www.promexico.gob.mx/en/mx/tratados-comerciales">more than any other country in the world</a>), agriculture has consistently been the most <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Completed_Inquiries/jfadt/Mexico/report/chapter6">sensitive issue in Mexico’s free trade agreements</a>. Trump has changed that. </p>
<p>Today, the country is accelerating its search for new partners to meet its national agricultural needs. Sensing long-term opportunities, <a href="http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/bra/">Brazil</a> and <a href="http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/arg/">Argentina</a> – both major exporters of beef, wheat, soybeans and other prized US agricultural products – are elbowing their way to the front of the queue. Neither currently has a free trade agreement with Mexico.</p>
<p>Mexico’s Deputy Economy Minister Juan Carlos Baker has said that the country is “pretty far advanced with Brazil. Argentina is a few steps behind”, confirming that Mexico could offer South American producers terms similar to those currently enjoyed by American farmers “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/850a886c-108c-11e7-b030-768954394623">if it suits us</a>”.</p>
<p>Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi has announced that the country is “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-06/trump-s-trade-shifts-put-brazil-back-in-the-agriculture-game">back in the game</a>”. </p>
<p>Mexico is also discussing bilateral deals with Australia and New Zealand, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/850a886c-108c-11e7-b030-768954394623">two other main food-exporting countries</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to government-to-government agreements, companies that produce and trade agricultural products are also seeing Mexico’s vast import market with new eyes. One of them is <a href="http://www.adecoagro.com/home.aspx">Adecoagro</a>, which owns and leases some 434,000 hectares of farmlands in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay and harvests two million tons of agricultural products annually. </p>
<p>The New York-traded Buenos Aires-based firm, whose <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6da964a8-ebd5-11e6-930f-061b01e23655">major shareholders</a> include the Hungarian-American investor George Soros, the <a href="https://www.pggm.nl/english/what-we-do/Pages/Pension-management.aspx">Dutch Pension Fund PGGM</a> and the Qatar Investment Authority, currently exports agricultural products such as corn, wheat, soybean and cotton to Africa, Asia and Middle East. </p>
<p>It sees NAFTA-related uncertainties as an opportunity to penetrate the Mexican market, especially if Brazilian and Argentinian products are granted favourable US-style export arrangements. </p>
<h2>Mexico’s brighter outlook</h2>
<p>In addition to diversifying its trading partners, Mexico is also seeking to stimulate its domestic agricultural production, according to several government officials and advisers. </p>
<p>New policies currently under consideration would incentivise farmers to produce more, modernise their farms, increase crop yields, and expand cultivable areas. The country is also looking to improve its transportation and storage infrastructure, including ports that could be used for bulk grain imports. </p>
<p>All of these efforts will help put Mexico on more equal footing with the United States in future NAFTA negotiations. So, too, would <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02/08/agricultural-leaders-say-mexico-might-retaliate-if-tariffs-are-imposed/">retaliatory measures</a> against a threatened US border tax. (And, anyway, if the US does decide to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-exclusive-idUSKBN1622J5">implement one</a>, the market is likely to sell off Mexican peso aggressively, making Mexican products cheaper even with new tariffs.)</p>
<p>Like the 1979 US grain ban that helped Russia improve its agriculture, Trump’s vituperation may prove beneficial to Mexico (and bad for the US) in the decades to come. </p>
<p>In the meantime, Mexico is facing a tough political and social landscape. President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approval rating is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-president-enrique-pena-nieto-loses-support-poll-finds-1484774725">nearing single digits</a> and the the economy is performing anaemically, with 2017 economic growth predicted to be a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-18/mexico-s-pena-nieto-approval-falls-to-12-after-gasoline-soars">paltry 1%</a>. </p>
<p>With a presidential election approaching in 2018, Peña Nieto is unlikely to hard sell to his people a new NAFTA that does not appeal to Mexicans. So it would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-tough-with-trump-is-good-politics-for-mexican-president-pena-nieto-71874">good politics</a>, too, to play hardball with Trump. </p>
<p>Mexico has more policy options than it thinks. And it may have less to lose than its northern neighbour. </p>
<p>If ending NAFTA hurts farmers in America’s Corn Belt, who <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/312952-how-corn-farmers-and-ethanol-producers-helped-deliver">voted overwhelmingly for Trump</a>, there goes the Republican’s reelection.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cecilia Tortajada is affiliated with the Lee Kuan Yew Institute of Water Policy and is a co-founder of the Third World Centre for Water Management, in Mexico. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Asit K Biswas is a co-founder of the Third World Centre for Water Management, in Mexico. </span></em></p>If the United States withdraws from or significantly alters NAFTA, Mexico has more options than it thinks — and potentially less to lose than its northern neighbour.Cecilia Tortajada, Senior Research Fellow, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of SingaporeAsit K. Biswas, Distinguished Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/736512017-03-09T04:20:25Z2017-03-09T04:20:25ZLargest deportation campaign in US history is no match for Trump’s plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160076/original/image-20170308-24204-q6uhjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C646%2C2779%2C1562&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Border Patrol officers detaining immigrants in a field after a few local raids.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">U.S. Border Patrol Museum</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the campaign trail, Donald Trump <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7UuuEFPGN0">vowed</a> that if he was elected president, he would resurrect Operation Wetback of 1954. Operation Wetback, the story goes, was the single largest deportation campaign in U.S. history, resulting in more than one million deportations to Mexico and a dramatic reduction in the number of unlawful entries at the U.S.-Mexico border.</p>
<p>As president, Trump has begun to make good on his pledge by issuing two executive orders that promise to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/presidential-executive-order-enhancing-public-safety-interior-united">ramp up deportations</a> and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/executive-order-border-security-and-immigration-enforcement-improvements">expand fencing</a> along the U.S.-Mexico border. </p>
<p>But mass deportation never happened during Operation Wetback of 1954. And border enforcement did not follow. As I detail in my book, “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Migra-History-Border-American-Crossroads/dp/0520266412">Migra! A History of the U.S. Border Patrol</a>,” Operation Wetback was, in fact, a mass legalization campaign chased by an easing of immigration law enforcement in the U.S.-Mexico border region. </p>
<p>Operation Wetback is often cited as a moment when mass deportation and border enforcement reduced the size of the undocumented population living in the United States and ended unlawful entry at the U.S.-Mexico border. They did not. It is time to put this false history to bed.</p>
<h2>Texas uprising</h2>
<p>In 1942, the U.S. and Mexican governments negotiated a labor agreement, known as the <a href="http://americanhistory.si.edu/bracero/introduction">Bracero Program</a>, which allowed millions of Mexican immigrants to temporarily work in the United States. </p>
<p>U.S. and Mexican authorities created the Bracero Program as a way to control Mexican migration. In the U.S., anti-Mexican sentiment generally opposed mass Mexican immigration. In Mexico, political leaders wanted Mexican workers to go to the United States, learn modern farming techniques and bring that knowledge home. </p>
<p>But many agricultural employers rebelled against the program. They preferred the unregulated labor practices they had used for decades to squeeze profits from Mexican workers marginalized by their undocumented status. The Bracero Program, among other things, guaranteed Mexican contract workers a minimum wage and sanitary housing. In South Texas, in particular, farmers and ranchers not only refused to use the Bracero Program but took up arms against the U.S. Border Patrol when they came to apprehend their workers. </p>
<p>Operation Wetback of 1954 was a campaign to crush the South Texas uprising and force their compliance with the Bracero Program. However, Mexican workers paid the greatest price.</p>
<h2>Operation Wetback</h2>
<p>Operation Wetback’s first iteration began in 1953 when Harlon B. Carter, the head of the U.S. Border Patrol in the southwestern United States, concocted a plan to use the U.S. military to round up and deport undocumented Mexicans. The plan, called Operation Cloudburst, made it all the way to President Eisenhower’s desk. Eisenhower considered it but nixed the idea since the <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1251/MR1251.AppD.pdf">Posse Comitatus Act</a> largely prohibits the use of the military for domestic law enforcement. Instead President Eisenhower appointed Joseph Swing, a former military general, to head the Immigration and Naturalization Service.</p>
<p>Carter was a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1981/05/06/us/leader-of-rifle-group-affirms-that-he-shot-bot-to-death-in-1931.html">convicted murderer</a>. In 1931, at the age of 17, he killed Ramon Casiano, a Mexican-American teen, in Laredo, Texas. Carter had been upset that Casiano and his friends had been hanging out in front of the Carter home. So Carter hunted them down, aimed a shotgun at Casiano’s chest and pulled the trigger. A jury convicted Carter of the killing, but the conviction was later overturned on a procedural technicality. Several years later, Carter joined the U.S. Border Patrol. </p>
<p>In May of 1954, the U.S. attorney general, Swing and Carter issued a press statement announcing Operation Wetback. Soon, they promised, an unprecedented, paramilitary surge of Border Patrol officers would sweep across the southwestern United States to find, detain and deport unauthorized Mexican immigrants. As Carter explained to the <a href="http://documents.latimes.com/june-12-1954-wetbacks-detention-camp-slated/">Los Angeles Times</a>, “an army of Border Patrol officers complete with jeeps, trucks, and seven aircraft” would soon unleash an “all-out war to hurl… Mexican wetbacks back into Mexico.”</p>
<p>Panic whipped through Mexican immigrant communities in southwestern states. Deportations and forced removals had been on the rise for a decade, spiking from 10,613 expulsions in 1942 to 905,236 in 1953. Carter and Swing promised more. So many more that the Border Patrol was already converting public parks into <a href="http://documents.latimes.com/eisenhower-era-deportations/">“concentration camps”</a> for detaining at least 1,000 people at a time. </p>
<p>The officials’ rhetoric forecast a callous, dehumanizing and warlike campaign, priming immigrants, employers and the American public in general for a spectacular show of force.</p>
<p>The show began at dawn on June 10, 1954 when Border Patrol officers set up checkpoints across southern California and western Arizona. During the next seven days, officers nabbed almost 11,000 unsanctioned Mexican immigrants. By June 30, 1954, 22,000 more were apprehended. In the following three months, Border Patrol task forces swept through California, Arizona, Texas, Chicago, Illinois and the Mississippi Delta, unleashing fast raids on farms, restaurants and Mexican majority communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160083/original/image-20170308-24192-2bink7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. Border Patrol packed Mexican immigrants into trucks when transporting them to the border for deportation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">U.S. Border Patrol Museum</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Everywhere the Border Patrol went, reporters followed, snapping photos and broadcasting stories of Mexicans being rounded up, detained and deported back to Mexico. In many cases, the deportees were crammed onto buses, trains, planes or boats to be forcibly relocated into the interior of Mexico and abandoned far from both home and the border. A congressional inquiry into conditions on one of the deportee boats would later describe it as an “18th-century slave ship” and a “<a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/132988/operation-wetback-revisitedcalled">penal hellship</a>.” </p>
<p>By October 1954, large numbers of Mexicans had been publicly rounded up, detained and deported. INS Commissioner Joseph Swing declared that the historic campaign had hurled more than one million Mexicans deep into Mexico.</p>
<p>It is true that U.S. Border Patrol reported apprehending more than one million people for the fiscal year ending June 30, 1954. But the patrol apprehended only 33,307 people between the start of Operation Wetback on June 10, 1954, and the close of the fiscal year on June 30, 1954. And they apprehended only 254,096 people between July 1, 1954 and June 30, 1955. In other words, the Border Patrol apprehended, at most, fewer than 300,000 people during the 1954 campaign. </p>
<h2>The unreported story</h2>
<p>There’s a story that General Swing did not invite journalists to cover. Without reporters in tow, Carter dispatched teams of Border Patrol officers to hold meetings with employers across the Southwest during the summer of 1954. </p>
<p>In particular, they met with South Texas employers, promising them constant raids if they refused to use the Bracero Program. And to appease the employers’ complaints about the program’s requirements, the officers offered two stripped-down versions of the Bracero Program. They were known as the the I-100 and Specials programs, which met some of the employers’ demands for fewer provisions for Bracero workers, and more control over the hiring and firing process.</p>
<p>If employers still declined to use the program, Border Patrol officials threatened to permanently station a two-man team on the grower’s farm until the grower signed a pledge to use braceros instead of unauthorized workers. It worked. The number of Mexican workers signed up with the Specials and I-100 programs in Texas surged from 168 in July of 1953 to 41,766 in July of 1954, around the same time Operation Wetback was underway. Across the country, the number of Mexicans participating in the Bracero Program also rose.</p>
<p>As more employers used the Bracero Program, which became increasingly broken and corrupt, the number of deportations fell. In the fiscal year ending June 30, 1954, the U.S. Border Patrol reported 1,035,282 apprehensions. In 1955, that number plunged to 254,096, and in 1956, it plummeted to 58,792. The number of Mexican nationals apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol remained under 100,000 until 1967. </p>
<p>But the declining number of deportations was about more than the use of the Bracero Program, which, until terminated in 1964, provided a form of legalization for many Mexican men working in the southwestern United States.</p>
<p>The U.S. Border Patrol also radically changed its police practices. Between 1944 and 1954, the Border Patrol routinely used 12-man task forces bolstered by planes and buses to ramp up apprehensions in the U.S.-Mexico border region. </p>
<p>After Operation Wetback of 1954, the Border Patrol retired the task forces and deescalated its activities in border states, resulting in far fewer apprehensions and deportations. In particular, the Border Patrol assigned officers to two-man patrols, and most were on foot or horseback. As one Border Patrol officer put it, the two-man patrols struggled to just “grab one or two and hang on to ‘em.”</p>
<p>In other words, after General Swing declared “conquest” at the border, he kept apprehensions low at the U.S.-Mexico border by changing patrol tactics. </p>
<p>To date, President Trump is pulling from the 1954 playbook. The executive orders and Department of Homeland Security <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/executive-orders-protecting-homeland">memos</a> announced sweeping plans to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants. And although swiftly retracted, a <a href="https://www.apnews.com/5508111d59554a33be8001bdac4ef830">leaked memo</a> regarding the possibility of the National Guard assisting in mass deportation churned fears that the federal government is preparing a warlike campaign on undocumented immigrants, namely Mexicans and Central Americans. </p>
<p>But there is no precedent for President Trump’s immigration plan. If Congress fully funds President Trump’s executive orders, including 10,000 new ICE agents, 5,000 new Border Patrol officers and an expansion of the border wall, they will hurl us into uncharted territory, unleashing an era of mass deportation and border enforcement to which not even Operation Wetback of 1954 will compare.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly Lytle Hernandez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 1954, US Border Patrol’s Operation Wetback promised to deport millions of undocumented Mexicans. It fell far short of its target, but made a mark in the minds of immigrants who lived in fear.Kelly Lytle Hernandez, Associate Professor, History and African-American Studies, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/734902017-03-09T03:20:36Z2017-03-09T03:20:36ZMexico’s new plan for facing Trump: resistance<p>It’s not easy to share a 3,000km border with a superpower. </p>
<p>As Mexican novelist and Nobel laureate Octavio Paz once <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?redir_esc=y&id=A_lLAAAAMAAJ&focus=searchwithinvolume&q=sombra+de+un+gigante">wrote</a>, Mexicans live in the shadow of a two-faced giant, alternately a naïve and good-natured colossus or a “cunning and bloodthirsty” monster.</p>
<p>US President Donald Trump, who has relentlessly <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-mexico-gas-is-fueling-the-flames-of-revolt-70972">intimidated</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-diplomacy-how-trump-is-using-social-media-to-spur-a-crisis-with-mexico-71981">humiliated</a> Mexico since before he was sworn in, evidently enjoys playing the ogre. He has repeatedly demanded that Mexico treat the US “<a href="http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/melanie-hunter/trump-unless-mexico-going-treat-us-fairly-and-respect-meeting-mexican">fairly and with respect</a>” while blaming it for “<a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000583212">taking advantage</a>” of its northern neighbour. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"615866741994954752"}"></div></p>
<h2>Who’s the bully?</h2>
<p>History says otherwise, of course. The first <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=r94lE3ZW7MEC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q=300%2C000%20people&f=false">300,000 Mexican-Americans</a> came into existence when President James Polk invaded Mexico in 1846 and <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1830-1860/texas-annexation">stole</a> 55% of its land, including Texas and California. By July 2015 some <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_15_1YR_B03001&prodType=table">35.8 million</a> people identified as Mexican American – 11% of the total US population. </p>
<p>Such are the human bridges that today unite the two countries; and Trump’s <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/trump-mexico-take-care-bad-hombres-or-us-might">sabre-rattling</a> represents a profound threat to regional peace, security and commerce. </p>
<p>In Mexico, Trump’s hostility has prompted a surge of <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-patriotism-trump-2017-story.html">anti-American nationalism</a>. And after months of erratic and hesitant responses to his Northern counterpart, President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approval rating <a href="http://eleconomista.com.mx/sociedad/2017/02/19/inflacion-pega-imagen-presidencial">of 17%</a> is the lowest ever recorded for a Mexican president.</p>
<p>After a February 22-23 <a href="https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/02/267735.htm">US state visit to Mexico</a> turned from merely awkward to openly hostile, Mexico’s government finally ran out of patience. Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s secretary of foreign affairs, ominously told the <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-fg-tillerson-mexico-20170221-story.html">Los Angeles Times</a> that the Trump administration’s next steps will determine “how Mexico and the US coexist” in coming decades. </p>
<h2>Trump’s NAFTA myths</h2>
<p>The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) used to be the flagship of the friendly relations between Mexico and the US. </p>
<p>As recently as July 2015, the US government was <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/07/25/president-obama-us-mexico-relationship">praising</a> Mexico as a “critically important” partner in America’s well-being; 14 years prior, George W Bush <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010905-2.html">acknowledged</a> that the US has “no more important relationship in the world” than the one it has with Mexico. </p>
<p>The good feelings from prior consecutive American administrations toward Mexico reflect former US presidents’ knowledge that the achievements of NAFTA – for economists largely agree that the agreement has <a href="http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nafta-20-years-later-benefits-outweigh-costs/">provided more benefits than harm to the US economy</a> – required sacrifices on both sides of the border. </p>
<p>Jobs were not exclusively lost in the declining US industrial heartland known as the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/rust-belt-what-is-it-us-ohio-michigan-pennsylvania-election-2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-a7405141.html">Rust Belt</a>. NAFTA has also imposed huge costs on the Mexican agricultural sector, eliminating <a href="http://www.iatp.org/files/NAFTA_and_the_FTAA_Impact_on_Mexicos_Agricultu.pdf">1.3 million</a> agriculture jobs. Poor farmers, forced to compete at local markets with <a href="http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/09-08AgricDumping.pdf">heavily subsidised</a> corn and other staples from the US, just couldn’t make it work. </p>
<p>Trump’s recent <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/02/28/remarks-president-trump-joint-address-congress">argument in an address to Congress</a> that the US has “lost more than one-fourth” of its manufacturing jobs to Mexico notwithstanding, an accompanying shift towards the <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/trade/effects-of-nafta-on-us-employment-and-policy-responses_5k9ffbqlvk0r-en;jsessionid=3bwm5pgrgaka.x-oecd-live-03">service economy</a> means the drop in manufacturing has had only a modest <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.pdf">overall effect</a> on the US job market. In fact, <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/265cd8fb02fb44a69cf0eaa2063e11d9/mexico-taking-us-factory-jobs-blame-robots-instead">automation</a> has had a bigger impact. </p>
<p>Service gigs are often low-paying and unstable, but the challenges of the US working class go deeper than NAFTA. Across the globe, a new social class of precarious workers – <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=wUHtxgWmj1wC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">the precariat</a> – has emerged as a result of the entrenchment of neoliberal capitalism all over the world. In Mexico, for example, many of those NAFTA-derived manufacturing jobs pay the daily minimum wage of <a href="http://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/175865/Tabla_de_salarios_minimos_vigentes_a_partir_de_01_enero_2017.pdf">80 pesos</a> – around US$4.00. </p>
<p>Rather than concern himself about labour standards, the US president has railed against the US goods trade deficit with Mexico, which <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-mexico-trade-deficit/">amounted</a> to <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico">US$58 billion</a> in 2015. He ignores that nearly <a href="https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/nafta-20-misleading-charges-and-positive-achievements">2 million</a> US jobs also now depend on exports to Mexico, and that the US has grown <a href="https://piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/nafta-20-years-later">US$127 billion</a> richer each year because of extra NAFTA trade.</p>
<p>The <em>gringo</em> ogre is back, with a vengeance.</p>
<h2>The beacon of hostility</h2>
<p>It was immigration that finally pushed Mexico’s government over the edge. </p>
<p>Those hardline executive orders on <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/executive-order-border-security-and-immigration-enforcement-improvements">border security</a> and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/presidential-executive-order-enhancing-public-safety-interior-united">immigration enforcement</a>? Not just empty threats: roughly half of the 11 million <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/03/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/">unauthorised immigrants</a> in the US are Mexican, and Trump wants them out. Bids for contracts to build <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wall-and-the-beast-trumps-triumph-from-the-mexican-side-of-the-border-68559">the US-Mexico border wall</a> are scheduled to open on <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/mexico-border-wall-construction-contract-bids-open-march-6/">March 6</a>. </p>
<p>Deportation priorities have also been drastically <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-who-are-the-millions-of-bad-hombres-slated-for-us-deportation-68818">expanded</a>. John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland Security, has issued <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/17_0220_S1_Enforcement-of-the-Immigration-Laws-to-Serve-the-National-Interest.pdf">instructions to target</a> undocumented immigrants who’ve been in the US up to two years for “expedited removal” without court authorisation.</p>
<p>Immigrants can now be deported for virtually any misstep, from using false documents to posing a (subjective) “risk to public safety or national security”. Paying smugglers to bring your children across the border has become a prosecutable offence, subjecting entire families to deportation.</p>
<p>These rules will spur <a href="https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/aclu-trump-memos.pdf">violations of civil liberties</a>, and they’re already causing human suffering across Mexico and the US. Asylum-seekers <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-us-closes-borders-thousands-of-haitian-refugees-trapped-in-mexico-lose-hope-73248">are stuck</a> in legal limbo at the border. Immigrants <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/us/immigrants-deportation-fears.html">hide</a> in fear. Families have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/09/arizona-guadalupe-garcia-de-rayos-deported-protests">torn apart</a>. </p>
<p>In the US, some 38% of US-born Latinos, 34% of Latino immigrants with US citizenship, and 49% of Latino immigrants who are lawful permanent residents now have <a href="http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/02/24094450/Latinos_Trump_FULLREPORT.pdf">serious concerns about whether they can still call the US “home”</a>. </p>
<p>Trump’s draconian immigration policies derive from a profoundly inaccurate assessment of the situation in the US. </p>
<p>Every day, <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/sep/14/donald-trump/trump-says-1-million-legal-crossings-along-us-mexi/">one million</a> individuals legally cross the border in a peaceful manner. </p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/size-of-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-workforce-stable-after-the-great-recession/">estimated 5%</a> of America’s civilian workforce is undocumented. And no wall will stop Mexican job-seekers as long as American employers – like Andrew Puzder, Trump’s first nominee to lead the Labour Department, who <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-pudzer-idUSKBN15M1CP">admitted</a> to employing an undocumented house cleaner – continue incorporating them. On the other hand, about <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/11/mexico-and-immigration-to-us/">one million</a> Mexican immigrants have already <a href="http://www.matt.org/uploads/2/4/9/3/24932918/returnmigration_top_line_www.pdf">freely returned</a> home between 2009 and 2014, partly because of Mexico’s <a href="http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2014/Why-Do-Fewer-Agricultural-Workers-Migrate-Now.pdf">own economic growth</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159838/original/image-20170307-14957-1oet1k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159838/original/image-20170307-14957-1oet1k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159838/original/image-20170307-14957-1oet1k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159838/original/image-20170307-14957-1oet1k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159838/original/image-20170307-14957-1oet1k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159838/original/image-20170307-14957-1oet1k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159838/original/image-20170307-14957-1oet1k8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A million people cross the border legally every day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/Pedestrian_border_crossing_sign_Tijuana_Mexico.jpg">Toksave/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trump has also erroneously and irresponsibly stigmatised immigrants as <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/02/28/remarks-president-trump-joint-address-congress">criminals</a> who “prey” on “very innocent” American citizens. Several studies, <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w13229.pdf">over many years</a>, have established that immigrants and crime <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/criminal_justice2000/vol_1/02j.pdf">are not connected</a>.</p>
<p>But the Trump administration, with its alternative facts, <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/17_0220_S1_Implementing-the-Presidents-Border-Security-Immigration-Enforcement-Improvement-Policies.pdf">asserts that there’s been</a> a “surge of immigration at the southern border” that’s causing “significant national security vulnerability”. Secretary Kelly is even insisting that the US can return all people caught crossing the US-Mexico border illegally to Mexico <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/17_0220_S1_Implementing-the-Presidents-Border-Security-Immigration-Enforcement-Improvement-Policies.pdf">even if they’re not Mexican</a>.</p>
<h2>Standing up to the bully</h2>
<p>Mexico reacted with anger to the new rules, which were issued <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-23/donald-trump-hostile-deportation-rules-upsets-mexico/8297962">hours before</a> Kelly and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in Mexico City for their first official visit.</p>
<p>Luis Videgaray <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/22/mexico-trump-immigration-foreign-minister-luis-videgaray">responded by indicating</a> that “the Mexican people do not have to accept measures that one government wants to unilaterally impose on another.” Kelly, trying to calm the row, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/tillerson-and-mexican-foreign-minister-discuss-immigration-drug-and-arms-trafficking/2017/02/23/4af17a10-f94d-11e6-aa1e-5f735ee31334_story.html?utm_term=.ba195f92820c">assured</a> the Mexican government that there would be “no mass deportations” and “no use of military force in immigration.”</p>
<p>But before the visit was over, Trump had already contradicted his DHS secretary by <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/02/23/remarks-president-trump-meeting-manufacturing-ceos">describing</a> the US crackdown as a “military operation” that’s getting “the bad dudes out at a rate that nobody has ever seen before.”</p>
<p>That was the last straw for the Mexican government.</p>
<p>On Tuesday February 28 – while pundits praised the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2017/feb/28/donald-trump-presidential-address-congress-live">“presidential” tone </a> of Trump’s address to Congress – Foreign Secretary Videgaray defined his country’s strategy going forward: open defiance. </p>
<p>In a six-hour senate hearing, Videgaray <a href="http://www.gob.mx/sre/articulos/mensaje-del-doctor-luis-videgaray-caso-ante-el-senado-de-la-republica?idiom=es">said</a> that his office had clearly communicated to Kelly and Tillerson “the feeling of offence and indignation that exists in Mexico”. He then outlined the country’s new <a href="http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/02/28/mexico/1488320149_072989.html">ground rules</a> for immigration, security, trade and border policy.</p>
<p>First, Videgaray cautioned, “the human rights of Mexicans in the US should be absolutely respected” and said that Mexico would not “hesitate to resort to the US courts and to international organisms” if necessary. Indeed, as he noted, this topic has already been raised in Mexico’s meetings with the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.</p>
<p>Mexico will also now reject any attempt to enforce Trump’s executive orders beyond US territory, refusing to further militarise the border and or to use military force against migrants, as Trump had recently urged Peña Nieto.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iCIS7_tLO-c?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Luis Videgaray in a senate hearing on tackling Trump.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a complementary pivot toward Central America, Videgaray said that development, not immigration control, will now determine Mexico’s relationship with Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. In recent years, Mexico had <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-is-outsourcing-border-enforcement-to-mexico-69272">intensified enforcement</a> at its southern border to stem migrants fleeing the troubled region for the US. Now Mexico vows to display “a more active, more supportive presence” there. </p>
<p>To mitigate fall out from increasing US protectionism, Mexico is diversifying its trade partnerships, now privileging Argentina, Brazil, Japan and China. Videgaray advised that any renegotiation of NAFTA must help raise salaries in Mexico, saying it’s “not right” to promote a trade project that “only attracts foreign investment to Mexico for its cheap labour.”</p>
<p>Finally, the Mexican government is also demanding that the US assume its neglected “historic responsibility” for drug consumption, arms trafficking and money laundering and acknowledge the role its law enforcement agencies <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-chapo-jailbreak-is-both-a-mexican-and-an-american-story-44679">have played</a> in the country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-murder-and-grief-mexicos-drug-war-turns-ten-70036">drug-related violence</a>.</p>
<p>A new era in the US-Mexican relationship has begun. And as these interdependent countries embark a collision course, they are, paradoxically, drifting apart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Draconian new US deportation policies are the last straw for Mexico’s government, which has endured months of Donald Trump’s insults and aggression.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/723472017-02-09T03:47:06Z2017-02-09T03:47:06ZUS relationship with Mexico more bitter than sweet under Trump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156137/original/image-20170209-28704-huopbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A protestor burns a figure representing Trump outside the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A war of words has erupted between the United States and Mexico over President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/executive-order-border-security-and-immigration-enforcement-improvements">executive order</a> to build a wall along the border, and his insistence that Mexico foot the bill. When the proposal was first announced during the U.S. election, it prompted an <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/online/former-mexican-president-were-not-paying-for-that-fcking-wall/">expletive-laden response</a> from former Mexican President Vicente Fox. After the order was signed, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/25/politics/mexico-president-donald-trump-enrique-pena-nieto-border-wall/">canceled</a> a planned visit to Washington. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=9347">My research</a> explores how security interests shape immigration and border policies. In Mexico, migration is viewed as mutually beneficial and a fundamental human right. In the United States, migration is often viewed as a threat. The tension between these two impulses has produced what some Mexican government officials have regarded as a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Transnational-Politics-Immigration-Monograph-Comparative/dp/0970283849">“bittersweet” relationship</a> with the United States. </p>
<p>Do Trump’s policies signal a sea change in U.S.-Mexico relations and in the way the border is managed? Or just another shift in the ebb and flow of <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100741940">border management</a> between the two countries?</p>
<h2>Importing Mexican labor</h2>
<p>Closer relations between the U.S. and Mexico were achieved during and after World War II. Overlapping security interests led to the creation of the <a href="http://quidprolaw.com/?p=513">Bracero Program</a>, a bilateral agreement to facilitate the temporary inflow of Mexican labor.</p>
<p>Mexican workers supported U.S. security interests by providing needed labor on the home front while American forces were fighting overseas. It also facilitated the shift of American labor away from agriculture and toward the rapidly growing manufacturing industry after the war. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156079/original/image-20170208-17320-1nhfdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156079/original/image-20170208-17320-1nhfdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156079/original/image-20170208-17320-1nhfdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156079/original/image-20170208-17320-1nhfdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156079/original/image-20170208-17320-1nhfdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156079/original/image-20170208-17320-1nhfdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156079/original/image-20170208-17320-1nhfdln.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Black and Mexican farm workers in Texas, 1943.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://cdn.loc.gov/service/pnp/fsa/8d19000/8d19800/8d19802v.jpg">US Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Between 1948 and 1964, the U.S. <a href="http://quidprolaw.com/?p=513">imported</a> 200,000 Mexican workers per year on average. Both nations considered the program mutually beneficial.</p>
<p>However, in the 1950s, workers and employers began circumventing the program’s red tape. Levels of undocumented migrants rose sharply and the U.S. response was swift. An Immigration and Naturalization Service program, pejoratively dubbed <a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=9347">“Operation Wetback,”</a> led to the deportation of more than one million Mexican migrants. This infuriated the Mexican government, which saw this as an overly heavy-handed response that neglected the economic contributions of Mexican workers on the U.S. economy. </p>
<p>Relations were further strained in 1964 when the United States unilaterally scuttled the Bracero Program when policymakers felt it no longer served American interests.</p>
<h2>A growing partnership</h2>
<p>Interest in cooperation rose again during the 1990s. Notions of free trade and integration served as the cornerstone of economic security interests for both the U.S. and Mexico.</p>
<p>Ironically, growing concerns about illegal immigration kept migration largely out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but the issue played a role in generating <a href="http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/handbook-on-migration-and-security">political support</a> for the agreement. Some NAFTA proponents in the U.S. suggested economic growth from NAFTA would curb emigration pressures in Mexico. This logic contributed to NAFTA’s passage.</p>
<p>After ratification, NAFTA served to define the relationship between the United States and Mexico in unequivocally positive terms: They were “partners.” </p>
<p>This new era of partnership fostered increased cooperation on migration and border management, such as the <a href="https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=437707">Binational Study</a> on Migration. This study, completed in 1997, served to reframe the issue of migration through a wider lens, one that encompassed both sides of the border instead of just one.</p>
<p>Mexican policymakers felt encouraged by the growing cooperation and interdependence that followed the adoption of NAFTA. They sought greater access to the U.S. for Mexican laborers through a new and more comprehensive bilateral migration agreement. They were so confident in securing such an agreement that Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda declared Mexico would settle for no less than “the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/sep/05/immigration.usa">whole enchilada</a>.”</p>
<p>The agreement was to include three elements: </p>
<p>1) Legalization for all undocumented Mexicans living in the U.S.,</p>
<p>2) a new legal channel of entry for Mexican laborers, and</p>
<p>3) protection of human rights for Mexican migrants.</p>
<p>For Mexico, such a deal would not only protect their nationals, but also reduce domestic unemployment and increase the inflow of remittances. In the first nine months of 2001, Mexican migrants in the U.S. sent home <a href="https://migration.ucdavis.edu/mn/more.php?id=2535">US$6.7 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Newly elected President George W. Bush appeared receptive to discussing such an agreement. He afforded Mexican President Vicente Fox the honor of the first <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010905.html">state visit</a> of his administration on Sept. 5, 2001. Though expectations for an agreement were high on both sides, the events of Sept. 11 altered American security priorities and indefinitely tabled talks on a comprehensive migration accord.</p>
<p>Even so, U.S.-Mexico relations remained positive and cooperation continued. Mexico hoped that cooperation with the U.S. on border control might help rekindle discussions regarding an immigration accord. So, they created <a href="http://www.worldpress.org/0901feature22.htm">Plan Sur</a>, a program directed at stemming the flow of Central Americans across Mexico’s southern border, many of whom were headed for the U.S. Through the program, 120,000 undocumented immigrants were deported from Mexico in <a href="http://www.worldpress.org/0901feature22.htm">2002</a>, and another 141,000 in <a href="http://www.worldpress.org/0901feature22.htm">2003</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, Mexico agreed to a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Homeland-Security-Protecting-Americas-Targets/dp/027598768X">Smart Borders</a> plan with the United States in March 2002, which aimed to increase border security.</p>
<p>Although Mexican cooperation with the U.S. on security failed to rekindle negotiations for a migration accord, the culture of partnership that has existed since NAFTA prompted a few attempts at immigration reform in the U.S. For example, the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/109th-congress/senate-bill/1033">Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act</a> of 2005 included provisions for both legalization of undocumented workers and new visas for low-skilled workers. Mexico has remained hopeful that economic interdependence might eventually produce the agreement they have been seeking for so long.</p>
<p>When considered in historical context, Trump’s wall proposal isn’t an unprecedented departure in policy. During the 1990s the U.S. <a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=9347">built walls</a> to fortify the border along a number of key crossing points. </p>
<p>That said, President Trump’s sharp criticism of NAFTA signals a potential shift in how the United States views the relationship. He has yet to characterize Mexico as a partner, and as such, decades of close relations may be at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Rudolph does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since World War II, the US and Mexico have successfully worked together on issues like trade and migration. If Trump refuses to treat Mexico as a partner, how bitter will the breakup be?Christopher Rudolph, Associate Professor of International Relations, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/723502017-02-08T04:17:06Z2017-02-08T04:17:06ZWhy US should treat Mexico as a vital partner, not a punching bag<p>Mexico is one of the most important countries in the world for the United States. It’s the <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico">second-largest buyer of U.S. goods</a>, the third-biggest consumer of U.S. agricultural products and America’s third-most-important trading partner, after China and Canada. We trade over a million dollars of stuff every minute. </p>
<p>So as we <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/22/politics/trump-renegotiate-nafta/">prepare to sit at a negotiating table</a> across from our southern neighbor, we should recognize that treating Mexico as a respected partner would be a good start if we hope to favorably resolve serious issues over trade, immigration or fighting crime. The U.S. will be safer and stronger if we can forge even closer cooperation with Mexico while finding solutions to the problems each side wants to fix. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/67077fd8-e4a3-11e6-9645-c9357a75844a">sharp, critical rhetoric</a> coming out of the new U.S. administration, however, is undermining a mutually beneficial relationship that has taken decades to build. It’s generating intense public anger, suspicion and fear in Mexico and fueling anti-Americanism. There is a real risk of returning to the deep distrust that characterized past U.S.-Mexico ties. That would be very harmful to U.S. strategic interests.</p>
<p>As the U.S. ambassador to Mexico from 2011 to 2015, I saw firsthand the strength of the relationship and the benefits of collaboration, even as I recognize that many improvements can be made in our bilateral ties. It would be a shame to throw those benefits away, which would seriously harm the U.S.</p>
<h2>From foe to friend to foe?</h2>
<p>The United States is blessed to have two large neighbors willing to work with us to foster mutual security and prosperity. While Mexico may not be a NATO ally like Canada, it is no less vital to U.S. interests and no less willing to be a partner. To get here, the two countries have spent the past 25 years overcoming a troubled history. </p>
<p>The Mexicans still remember vividly the <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/mexican-american-war">war that began in 1846</a> that ceded much of their country to the U.S., including modern-day Texas and California. Every year, they celebrate “<a href="http://www.mexonline.com/history-ninosheroes.htm">Los Niños Héroes</a>,” referring to the teenagers who threw themselves off a cliff rather than surrender to U.S. marines invading Mexico City and those who fought the U.S. occupation of Veracruz in 1914. </p>
<p>The mistrust lingered through the 1980s, when Americans still characterized Mexicans as “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Distant-Neighbors-Portrait-Alan-Riding/dp/0679724419">distant neighbors</a>.”</p>
<p>Change began with the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Negotiating-NAFTA-Mexican-Envoys-Account/dp/027595935X">negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement</a> (NAFTA) in the early 1990s and continued when the U.S. helped Mexico recover from a <a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/9056792/12-101.pdf?sequence=1">major economic crisis in 1995</a>. </p>
<p>Especially since 2008, the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41349.pdf">U.S. and Mexico have formed strong cross-border collaborations</a> on security, law enforcement, migration, foreign policy and many other issues that are profoundly in the strategic interests of the United States. </p>
<p>Simultaneously, under NAFTA, the private sector was building vast interconnected networks and manufacturing production chains across North America that brought added wealth to each country and turned the region into a <a href="http://www.joc.com/international-trade-news/trade-data/mexico-trade-data/nafta-20-transformational-force-continues-evolve_20140124.html">global economic powerhouse</a> that could compete effectively with China and others in Asia. </p>
<p>Public rhetoric from the Trump administration is putting much of this in jeopardy. It has <a href="http://www.global.nationalreview.com/article/444226/mexico-trump-backlash-brewing-south-border">generated serious backlash</a> among Mexico’s public and politicians and put much pressure on the government to resist vehemently Trump’s demands, especially over who pays for a border wall. But the potential treatment of undocumented Mexican nationals in the U.S. also remains a serious and emotional concern. </p>
<p>The Mexican <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/26/news/economy/trump-mexican-peso/">peso has plunged</a> – ironically making its exports less expensive for American companies and consumers to buy. And Mexico’s <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-could-really-mess-up-mexicos-economy/">economic outlook has weakened considerably</a> – a weaker economy actually increases the likelihood residents will try to find a better life north of the border at a time when net immigration flows of Mexicans are moving south. </p>
<p>The growing popular anger means a generation of Mexican politicians, officials and experts who favored promoting closer ties with the U.S. are now on the defensive. The Mexican dailies and radio programs are filled with calls for the government to get tougher with the U.S., even if it’s costly to Mexico. This limits room for serious negotiations. Worse still, this is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-03/mexico-has-its-own-fiery-populist-trump-may-put-him-in-power">giving a lift</a> to the most anti-American presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, running to replace the current president in 2018. </p>
<p>The costs to the U.S. of continuing on this path would be enormous.</p>
<h2>A closer look at NAFTA</h2>
<p>Let’s start with NAFTA, since that’s the source of some of the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/23/trump-to-sign-executive-order-to-renegotiate-nafta-and-intent-to-leave-tpp.html">biggest complaints from both Trump</a> and politicians from the left such as Bernie Sanders. </p>
<p>First, NAFTA is not the cause of the great economic woes or job losses as portrayed. Rather, it has spurred <a href="https://piie.com/publications/briefings/piieb14-3.pdf">U.S. economic growth</a>, <a href="http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/24/14363148/trade-deals-nafta-wto-china-job-loss-trump">produced millions of new jobs</a> (including <a href="http://www.bancomext.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ceb8ingles.pdf">higher skilled ones</a>), lowered costs for consumers and helped us overcome enormous <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.pdf">trade competition</a> from Asia. </p>
<p>Total U.S.-Mexico trade has surged almost 600 percent since NAFTA was negotiated in 1993 to reach <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico">US$584 billion</a> in 2015. That supported <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/growing-together-economic-ties-between-the-united-states-and-mexico">4.9 million U.S. jobs</a> spread across the country in 2016. Some 57,000 U.S. companies sell to Mexico. </p>
<p>Plus, Mexico is an essential partner in <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-trump-protectionism-alters-supply-chain/">U.S. production chains</a>, where inputs for a final product <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/growing_together_how_trade_with_mexico_impacts_employment_in_the_united_states_2.pdf">regularly cross the border</a> several times. Up to <a href="https://www.bea.gov/about/pdf/NBER%20working%20paper_1.pdf">40 percent of the final value</a> of a product manufactured in Mexico comes from U.S. suppliers. That is far more than in any other country.</p>
<p>In sum, according to a 2013 study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the U.S. “is <a href="https://piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/briefings/piieb14-3.pdf">$127 billion</a> richer each year” because of NAFTA. </p>
<h2>Improve it, don’t rip it up</h2>
<p>Yes, there are problems with <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-dreier-roundtable-20161027-story.html">NAFTA</a>. It was the first trade deal of its kind and is 24 years old. It can, and should, be improved. And workers and communities harmed by it and other trade and industry transformations should be helped with active assistance. </p>
<p>Still, NAFTA <a href="http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf">is not</a> the main source of U.S. job losses that <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade">President Trump</a> claims it be. The introduction of new technologies and trade with <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906">China</a> are much larger causes of manufacturing job losses. </p>
<p>And it is not NAFTA’s fault that the U.S. government <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-help-free-trades-losers-make-adjustment-assistance-more-than-just-burial-insurance-67036">did not have a sufficient strategy</a> to help those left behind find new jobs, develop new skills or attract investment to their communities. </p>
<p>Disrupting our trade with Mexico by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-nafta-tpp-trade-speech-2016-6">withdrawing from NAFTA</a> or by adding <a href="http://wpo.st/PKGY2">new taxes, tariffs or fees</a> would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/opinion/building-a-wall-of-ignorance.html?smid=tw-share">raise prices</a> for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/31/the-hottest-tax-idea-in-washington-right-now-would-cost-average-families-1000-a-year/?utm_term=.9aa739af48ca&wpisrc=nl_wonk&wpmm=1">U.S. consumers</a> and could <a href="http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=148">endanger many of the millions of U.S. jobs</a> tied to North America’s production chains and sales to <a href="https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/wto-could-authorize-unprecedented-trade-retaliation-border-adjustable-tax-dispute">Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>So let’s have a clear-eyed look at how <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/trump-to-announce-plans-for-renegotiation-nafta-five-ways-to-improve-the-agreement">we can improve and update NAFTA</a> to create more jobs and prosperity. </p>
<p>For example, we could add new areas like e-commerce where the U.S. is very strong. We could get better treatment for U.S. service providers. Significantly, we could change the “rules of origin” that determine if a manufactured product has enough “North American” input to be tariff-free. We could eliminate nontariff barriers that add costs at the borders and could strengthen labor standards.</p>
<p>But let’s not publicly distort NAFTA or blame it for trends whose causes and remedies are elsewhere. </p>
<h2>A wall of facts</h2>
<p>Let’s also be honest about the <a href="http://theconversation.com/who-will-pay-for-trumps-big-beautiful-wall-72321">border wall</a>, migration and public security, starting with key questions that still don’t have adequate answers from the administration.</p>
<p>Why should Mexico have to pay for a wall that it does not think is needed and when <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/">more Mexicans are returning</a> to Mexico than heading north? Where is the cost-benefit analysis that demonstrates that a full wall is the best way to assure border security? What will the <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602494/bad-math-props-up-trumps-border-wall/">real cost</a> be? Is it <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/06/building-trumps-wall-6-things-to-know-about-the-u-s-mexico-border/">really needed</a> or <a href="http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/01/border-officers-real-security-more-complicated-building-wall/134872/">even feasible</a>?</p>
<p>I visited the border a good number of times – including during the surge in migrants from Central America – as ambassador and talked regularly with our homeland security personnel and border business and political leaders. Some certainly spoke in favor of additional walls or fences in some places and about the need for better surveillance and more rapid response capacity in others, but many also argued that walls don’t make sense along big chunks of the border. </p>
<p>Trump’s Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/10/general-john-kelly-senate-homeland-security-confirmation-hearing/96346782">at his confirmation hearings noted</a> that a physical barrier itself would not be sufficient. He argued for a layered defense with sensors and patrols and emphasized the need for cooperation with other governments. </p>
<p>Alienating the Mexicans over who pays for our wall puts that cooperation at risk. We need Mexican aid to stop <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/09/20/overall-number-of-u-s-unauthorized-immigrants-holds-steady-since-2009/">undocumented immigrants</a>, to confront drug traffickers and other criminals and to have the best defense against any potential terrorists trying to enter via Mexico. </p>
<p>Most of my Mexican interlocutors agreed that border security could be improved and we should work better together to stop illicit trafficking of drugs, guns, money and people as well as potential terrorists – in both directions. Current U.S.-Mexico cooperation ranges from sharing names of suspicious individuals and detaining suspicious travelers far from the border to coordinating efforts against criminals, like drug kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/19/us/el-chapo-guzman-turned-over-to-us/">who was just extradited</a> to the U.S. </p>
<p>Mexico is also already seriously cooperating on migration. Both countries have agreed upon and implemented protocols for smoothly handling deportations from the U.S. and for avoiding border violence. The Mexicans are stopping many Central American migrants before they even reach the U.S. border. In 2015, Mexico deported over 165,000 migrants <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/27/us-mexico-mass-deportations-refugees-central-america">apprehended along its border with Guatemala</a>, more than the 135,000 that U.S. officials apprehended at <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/14/mexico-us-border-apprehensions/">our border</a>. Without Mexico’s help, many more migrants would have arrived in the U.S. </p>
<p>The broad opinion in Mexico, however, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/01/27/reasons-mexico-hates-border-wall/97128754">views the wall plan</a> and the accompanying rhetoric about Mexicans as affronts to Mexico’s dignity. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mexican-response-backlash-to-trumps-wall-and-president-2017-1">They bridle</a> at the <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-outrageous-comments-mexicans-article-1.2773214">public characterizations of Mexicans</a> during the campaign as criminals and shudder at talk of mass deportations. </p>
<p>Mexican officials tell me that if the U.S. wants to build it on U.S. territory, that is our choice. Trying to force Mexico to pay for it, however, is rekindling resentment about past U.S. abuses of Mexican sovereignty, they argue. </p>
<h2>The real danger</h2>
<p>When Trump <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/25/politics/mexico-president-donald-trump-enrique-pena-nieto-border-wall/">publicly tweeted</a> that Mexican President Pena Nieto should not visit Washington if he will not pay for the wall, he painted his counterpart into a corner with the Mexican public, forcing him to cancel his trip.</p>
<p>Subsequently, the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/02/politics/mexico-foreign-minister-anderson-cooper/">two presidents spoke by phone</a> – with <a href="http://time.com/4657474/donald-trump-enrique-pena-nieto-mexico-bad-hombres">Trump reportedly suggesting</a> he could help by sending the U.S. military south to take on the drug cartels, setting off alarm bells in Mexico. Talks between Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his counterpart and other officials have since calmed things down. </p>
<p>But the public attacks have created a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-border-wall-announcement-builds-more-resentment-in-mexico-1485364860">strong sense</a> that Mexico must resist U.S. pressure and be prepared to respond firmly. Some social groups <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/02/news/economy/mexico-boycott-america-trump/">are already calling for boycotts of U.S. goods</a>. </p>
<p>The real danger is that U.S. words and actions will revive the old sense of hostility in a country very important to our security and prosperity. That would be very costly for U.S. workers, companies, consumers and farmers, not to mention the security of our homeland.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Earl Anthony Wayne consults for and is affiliated with the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center and with HSBC. In my biographic note, I disclose that I work for the Wilson Center as a Public Policy Fellow. That is connected with the Center's Mexico Institute. The Mexico Institute would likely have some minor reputational benefit from this article being published. I work as a part-time advisor to HSBC in Mexico and Latin America, specifically on ways to improve systems for preventing illicit finance from going through the bank. That advisory work is not tied to this article, but it is work associated with Mexico, so I wanted to specifically disclose it. </span></em></p>A former ambassador to Mexico explains how Trump’s rhetoric is sparking a backlash that could endanger U.S. economic and national security.Earl Anthony Wayne, Visiting Professor of International Affairs, Hamilton CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.