tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/vote-33783/articlesVote – The Conversation2024-03-11T12:24:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229672024-03-11T12:24:32Z2024-03-11T12:24:32ZAncient Rome successfully fought against voter intimidation − a political story told on a coin that resonates today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576049/original/file-20240215-17705-r7jti2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy was enshrined in Roman currency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This silver denarius, minted <a href="https://numismatics.org/crro/id/rrc-292.1">over 2,000 years ago</a>, is hardly the most attractive Roman coin. And yet, the coin is vital evidence for the early stages of a political struggle that culminated in Caesar’s assassination and the fall of the Roman Republic.</p>
<p>I first encountered this coin while <a href="https://history.iastate.edu/directory/david-hollander/">studying Roman history</a> in graduate school. Its unusual design gave me pause – this one depicted figures walking across a narrow bridge and dropping something into a box. I moved on after learning it depicted voting, reasoning that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah06338">Roman mint officials</a> occasionally made idiosyncratic choices.</p>
<p>But as voting access evolves in the U.S., the political importance of this centuries-old coin seems more compelling. It turns out that efforts to regulate voting access go way back.</p>
<h2>Roman voting</h2>
<p>Voting was a core feature of the Roman Republic and a <a href="https://archive.org/details/worldofcitizenin0000nico">regular activity for politically active citizens</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah18141">Men, and only men</a>, could vote in multiple elections and legislative assemblies each year. So why would P. Licinius Nerva, the official responsible for this coin, choose to depict such a banal activity? </p>
<p>The answer lies in voting procedures that sometimes heavily favored elites.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Panoramic view of ancient Roman columns and buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Roman Forum was a common site of political activities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forum_romanum_6k_(5760x2097).jpg">BeBo86/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah20037.pub2">comitia centuriata</a>, the assembly that elected Rome’s chief magistrates, each citizen was a member of a voting unit based on wealth. Unit members voted to decide which candidates they collectively supported, like U.S. presidential elections where it’s not the popular vote but the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-electoral-college-exist-and-how-does-it-work-5-essential-reads-149502">number of Electoral College votes</a> that determines the winner. </p>
<p>The wealthiest Romans controlled more than half of the voting units in this assembly. The poorest citizens had just one voting unit; since they voted last, and only during uncertain outcomes, they might not vote at all. </p>
<p>Furthermore, citizens voted orally and openly. Elites could directly observe and potentially intimidate poorer voters.</p>
<h2>Regulating Roman electioneering</h2>
<p>That all began to change in 139 BCE when the Roman politician <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.35">Aulus Gabinius passed a law</a> mandating written ballots for elections. Two further laws, <a href="https://archive.org/details/romanvotingassem0000tayl">both passed in the 130s</a>, extended the use of written ballots to legislative voting and most trial juries.</p>
<p>These written ballots made it more difficult for elites to influence voting but not impossible. Each unit formed its own line leading to a bridge where voters received ballots to mark and <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/2027/heb01565.0001.001">place in a basket</a>. Elites could station themselves or their allies on the bridge to encourage people to vote the “right” way.</p>
<p>The reverse of Nerva’s coin depicts the reception and deposit of the ballot, the first and last moments of a voter’s time on the bridge. The absence of nonvoter figures on the coin, apart from a poll worker, is key to understanding its message.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bronzed silver coin with one figure receiving a ballot from another figure while another deposits a ballot in a box" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reverse of a Roman silver coin minted by P. Nerva, circa 113 BCE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 119 BCE, a young politician named Gaius Marius <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:greekLit:tlg0007.tlg031.perseus-eng1:4.2">passed a law</a> that <a href="https://www.loebclassics.com/view/marcus_tullius_cicero-de_legibus/1928/pb_LCL213.505.xml">narrowed voting bridge widths</a>, allowing voters to mark their ballots without elites looking over their shoulders. Nerva’s coin, minted six or seven years later, almost certainly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511584015">refers back to this law</a>. By showing only voters on the bridge, Nerva was celebrating an important voting rights victory and announcing his allegiance to Marius.</p>
<p>The aristocrats never managed to repeal the voting laws and were <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.33">still grumbling about them</a> even as the Republic collapsed.</p>
<p>The long Roman struggle over voting procedures provides a useful and perhaps even comforting reminder. <a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/">Changing state voting laws</a> and <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/">election lawsuits</a> are nothing new. The fight over voter access to the ballot is an inevitable side effect of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David B. Hollander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fighting for voter access is an inevitable part of any democracy, from ancient Rome to the US today. Roman legislators were able to thwart elite political sway by introducing written ballots.David B. Hollander, Professor of History, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1890962022-08-29T18:05:17Z2022-08-29T18:05:17ZIs it important to post election signs in languages other than French in Québec?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481629/original/file-20220829-24-109am8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C4550%2C2997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coalition Avenir Québec Leader François Legault launches his campaign at the Montmorency Falls with candidates, Aug. 28, 2022 in Québec City.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/is-it-important-to-post-election-signs-in-languages-other-than-french-in-quebec" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In electoral campaigns, election signs help candidates market themselves. But does the language of an election sign matter in a multilingual society?</p>
<p>This question is relevant in Québec, especially as the province begins <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-2022-election-campaign-start-1.6564813">its fall election campaign</a>. </p>
<p>While Québec is predominantly French-speaking, the population of potential voters in Québec is linguistically diverse. According <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm">to the 2021 census</a>, 93.7 per cent of Quebecers know French, but 28.2 per cent speak a language other than French at home. And the majority of the population <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/as-sa/fogs-spg/Page.cfm?Lang=E&Dguid=2021A000224&topic=6">knows more than one language</a> — 14.5 per cent know three or more. This makes Québec the province with the most bilingual and multilingual people in Canada. </p>
<h2>Languages on election signs</h2>
<p>Despite that linguistic diversity, Québec’s political parties post few signs in languages other than French during campaigns. In fact, our research — yet to be published — shows that over the last 100 years, less than 10 per cent of political signs posted in the province were bilingual or in English. </p>
<p>The majority of signs were in French or did not convey a particular message other than the name of the candidate, party or riding. </p>
<p>Our findings also show that the presence of English on election signs has fluctuated over time. For example, 22 per cent of signs had some English on them in the 1950s and ‘60s. This percentage fell to 2 per cent from the 1970s to 2000s, followed by a timid resurgence of English in the 2010s. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Languages on election signs by decade in Québec" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480924/original/file-20220824-10117-wneb24.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Which language appears on election signs in Québec has varied for the past 100 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Marc Pomerleau)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In translation studies, we say that translation not only serves as a textual indicator of meaning, but also as a sociopolitical indicator. This is clearly the case when it comes to election signs. </p>
<p>The overall disappearance of English from election signs coincides with the redefinition of the political and social balance of power in Québec <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/quiet-revolution">since the 1960s</a>. </p>
<p>One might assume that posters are almost exclusively in French because of the <a href="https://www.legisquebec.gouv.qc.ca/en/document/cs/C-11/19991022#se:59">Charter of the French Language</a>, but in no way does it prevent political advertising in other languages. The explanation here lies in the context rather than the law.</p>
<h2>Should political parties post signs in different languages?</h2>
<p>As the vast majority of Quebecers know French, political parties could easily decide to post their election signs in French only. But it is also true that people tend to <a href="https://csa-research.com/Featured-Content/For-Global-Enterprises/Global-Growth/CRWB-Series/CRWB-B2C">prefer content in their mother tongue</a>. </p>
<p>That fact however doesn’t mean a political party would gain votes by posting signs in English or other languages. </p>
<p>To find out how Quebecers perceive election signs in different languages, we conducted a survey on electorate language preferences — the results of which will soon be published in <a href="https://www.erudit.org/en/journals/meta/"><em>Meta</em></a>. Our survey consisted of multiple-choice questions where participants were shown several hypothetical unilingual and bilingual election signs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A collage of three election signs with varying degrees of bilingualism." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480926/original/file-20220824-12-911l98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Québec, election signs are predominantly in French.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Musée québécois de culture populaire, Collection Dave Turcotte/Musée virtuel d'histoire politique du Québec, Québec Solidaire)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Perception of French and English signs</h2>
<p>The vast majority of Francophones (82.9 per cent) had positive feelings towards a unilingual French poster. Among non-Francophones, 61 per cent felt the same. </p>
<p>For a sign in English only, a mere 4 per cent of Francophones liked it, compared to 18.7 per cent of non-Francophones. When it came to bilingual (French-English) signs, 39.1 per cent of Francophones and 69.5 per cent of non-Francophones had positive feelings. </p>
<p>This shows that what bothers Québec voters is not so much the presence of English on signs, but the absence of French — English-only signs bothered 91.5 per cent of Francophones and 61 per cent of non-Francophones. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing how people feel about bilingual election signs in Québec." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480927/original/file-20220824-9546-6hueb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over 69 per cent of non-Francophones had positive feelings towards bilingual signs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Marc Pomerleau)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Perception of signs in other languages</h2>
<p>When presented with signs with a message in a foreign language, participants generally felt more positively towards those showcasing languages closer to French like Spanish, Italian and Portuguese — especially compared to those using a different script like Arabic, Mandarin and Russian. </p>
<p>The bilingual French-Spanish sign was the most widely accepted. Spanish is also the most widely understood foreign language in the province with a total of over 450,000 speakers. So what seemed to bother participants was their inability to understand a language. </p>
<p>However, a sign in Inuktitut generated very positive feelings across all Quebecers, especially when the sign was bilingual with French. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Québec election signs in French from over the years." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480932/original/file-20220824-4026-r6jk1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As the vast majority of Quebecers know French, political parties could easily decide to post their election signs in French only.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Bibliothèque de l'Assemblée nationale du Québec, Collection Richard G. Gervais/Bibliothèque de l'Assemblée nationale du Québec, Marc Pomerleau)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Should political parties post signs in multiple languages?</h2>
<p>Although our participants’ perceptions of hypothetical signs don’t necessarily translate into who they will vote for in real situations, they exemplify the linguistic preferences of the Québec electorate. </p>
<p>Francophones prefer by far French-only signs and non-Francophones have similar positive feelings towards French-only signs and bilingual French-English signs, the latter being slightly preferred. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that Québec politicians who wish to put up provincial election signs in languages other than French should do so with caution. </p>
<p>Bilingual signs and signs in other languages could be used strategically in locations chosen with care, taking into account where said languages are actually spoken. </p>
<p>It will be interesting to see what political parties actually do during the 2022 campaign, especially in the context of <a href="http://m.assnat.qc.ca/en/travaux-parlementaires/projets-loi/projet-loi-96-42-1.html">Bill 96</a> and the newly released census data showing a <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220817/g-a002-eng.htm">decline of French</a>. </p>
<p>Signs in languages other than French could be seen as an outstretched hand in yet another episode of linguistic tensions, but also as an indicator that French is indeed losing ground.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Pomerleau receives funding from Fonds d’aide institutionnel à la recherche, Université TÉLUQ.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Esmaeil Kalantari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Signs in languages other than French could be seen as an outstretched hand in yet another episode of linguistic tensions, but also as an indicator that French is indeed losing ground.Marc Pomerleau, Professeur de linguistique et de traductologie / Professor of linguistics and translation, Université TÉLUQ Esmaeil Kalantari, Auxiliaire de recherche, Université TÉLUQ Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1845952022-06-12T09:11:38Z2022-06-12T09:11:38ZMoney is breaking democracy in Nigeria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468044/original/file-20220609-18-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some Nigerian women displaying their voter cards at a polling units during one of the country's elections. Photo:aap/
Peter Obe</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/search/Nigerians%20voting?q=%7B%22pageSize%22:100,%22pageNumber%22:2%7D">https://photos.aap.com/Peter Obe</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Nigeria has had 23 years of unbroken civilian rule since 1999, and commemorates this return to democratic governance on 12 June. The Conversation Africa asked political scientist Ayo Olukotun to reflect on the nation’s democratic journey so far and the problems hindering this system of government.</em></p>
<p><strong>What is your assessment of the journey so far?</strong></p>
<p>It’s a chequered journey, with ups and downs. There’s not enough stability in the system. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-has-a-history-of-dodgy-elections-will-it-be-different-this-time-111093">quality of elections</a> alone is below par in terms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/digital-technology-can-improve-nigerias-elections-lessons-from-2019-175551">administration</a> and logistics. And there’s still occasional <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/06/10/nigeria-widespread-violence-ushers-presidents-new-term">violence</a>. Before, during and after the last election in 2019, <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/343971-626-killed-during-2019-nigeria-elections-report.html">623 people died</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-violence-every-election-season-in-nigeria-what-can-be-done-to-stop-it-183690">There's violence every election season in Nigeria: what can be done to stop it</a>
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<p>We can’t conduct polls without the shutdown of the entire country. And in some areas of Nigeria it can <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/02/07/nigeria-to-postpone-elections-official-says.html">even be dangerous</a> to go out and vote.</p>
<p>Apathy and disconnection are the result. <a href="https://punchng.com/inec-laments-low-turnout-says-20-million-pvcs-unclaimed/">The Independent National Electoral Commission was complaining</a> about the huge number of <a href="https://theconversation.com/digital-technology-can-improve-nigerias-elections-lessons-from-2019-175551">voters’ cards</a> that have not been collected. The 2019 presidential poll witnessed <a href="https://punchng.com/2019-presidential-polls-only-35-of-voters-voted-inec/">only 35% voter turnout.</a></p>
<p>The noninclusive character of the federation is also part of the problem. This means that swathes of citizens are excluded from the process of governance in a top-heavy configuration.</p>
<p>Young people feel disenfranchised. They are <a href="https://www.gcca.eu/stories/nigerias-youth-asset-or-consumer-time-bomb">the demographic majority</a> but they are poorly represented. </p>
<p>Women are also underrepresented. If women make the effort to come into the political arena, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-election-women-idUSKCN1Q32G8">they’re discriminated against</a>. There are <a href="https://noi-polls.com/culture-and-religion-greatest-barriers-for-nigerian-women-in-politics/">cultural and religious obstacles to women’s participation in politics</a>. Yet, if they don’t make an effort they have no voice. </p>
<p>So, Nigeria’s democratic journey has not been smooth at all.</p>
<h2>Money is widely used to affect outcomes. What’s the impact?</h2>
<p>As long as money can buy votes, the future of democracy is uncertain. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/05/29/atiku-defeats-wike-becomes-pdp-presidential-candidate/">Peoples Democratic Party’s convention has just elected</a> a presidential candidate out of about 15 aspirants. Two of the party’s presidential aspirants, <a href="https://www.blueprint.ng/breaking-like-peter-obi-hayatu-deen-withdraws-from-pdp-presidential-race-says-process-monetised-corrupt-self-serving/">Peter Obi and Mohammed Hayatu-Deen</a>, said dollars <a href="https://punchng.com/dollar-rain-drowns-pdp-presidential-primary-creates-bonanza-for-delegates/">were being rained down</a> on delegates as a way of wooing them to vote. This <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/10/dollar-rains-at-port-harcourt-pdp-presidential-primaries-2018/">also happened</a> in the 2018 Peoples Democratic Party convention in Port Harcourt. </p>
<p>Aside from this, the two dominant political parties in Nigeria, the ruling All Progressives Congress and the <a href="https://www.icirnigeria.org/pdp-extends-sale-of-nomination-forms/">Peoples Democratic Party</a>, <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/526573-why-we-are-charging-n100m-for-presidential-nomination-form-apc-national-chairman.html">sell</a> their expression of interest form and nomination forms for <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/05/05/with-over-n30bn-from-sale-of-forms-apc-gets-firepower-for-2023-elections/">huge amounts</a> of money to presidential aspirants. These forms are sold by the political parties to members who are aspiring to contest political offices under their platforms. Aspirants in Nigeria must belong to a political party because, as of now, the nation’s electoral law does not allow independent candidacy.</p>
<p>This locks out a significant majority of the population. If about <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/01/91m-nigerians-fall-below-poverty-line-nesg/#:%7E:text=His%20words%2C%20%E2%80%9CThe%20World%20Bank,headcount%20to%20about%2091">half of the population can’t make ends meet</a> and you ask people to pay as high as 100 million naira (about US$240,000) for expression of interest and nomination forms, you have disenfranchised them. </p>
<p>This is the biggest disincentive to youth participation because young people are the poorest. They are also the most affected and afflicted by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-nigerians-rise-up-to-demand-a-different-kind-of-freedom-148105">Nigerian trauma</a> – unemployment, insecurity, police brutality, absence of social security support policy and corruption. </p>
<p>So the effect is more direct on them. They cannot come up with the money and that’s a problem. </p>
<p>What’s happening is that <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/05/2023-elections-children-of-nigerian-politicians-that-got-tickets/">old politicians are recycling</a> their sons, their daughters and their in-laws into the political space. Those who don’t have godfathers or parents who can recycle them have no chance.</p>
<p>The need for money also makes it worse for women. Only a <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/04/2023-apc-cancels-nomination-fees-for-female-aspirants/">small percentage</a> of women in Nigeria are in a position to find the kind of money required to participate</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-is-not-a-failed-state-but-it-has-not-delivered-democracy-for-its-people-149769">Nigeria is not a failed state, but it has not delivered democracy for its people</a>
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<h2>How can the trend of exclusion be reversed?</h2>
<p>It’s a paradigm shift. The older generation formed the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Action-Group-political-party-Nigeria">Action Group</a> and some other political parties in the 1950s. The Action Group was a Nigerian nationalist political party established in Ibadan on 21 March, 1951, by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo. It was disbanded after the military took over the reins of government in 1966. </p>
<p>They were intentional about how the dividends of democracy were shared based on their contributions to the party’s success. This is because they came together to form parties. Members, including farmers and peasants, contributed money to fund their parties. They voted for their leaders based on integrity. The leaders who <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/10/independence-what-made-western-nigeria-tick-in-the-first-republic/">emerged served the people</a>. </p>
<p>Now we have vote buyers and sellers. </p>
<p>We can adopt the old generation’s funding option for political parties. It will take a lot of work but if we have a lot of people with integrity, the system will begin to change. You can’t have change without some sacrifices. We need crusaders to lead the campaign.</p>
<p>The other option is fund raising, which is what they do in the United States. But there must be transparency: you must make public what you get. </p>
<h2>What should Nigeria do to enhance democracy?</h2>
<p>First, identify the problems. These include disenfranchisement of women and young people, the role of money in the electioneering process, corruption and skewed federalism. </p>
<p>Others are the exclusiveness of the country’s democracy, the ethno-regional spaces and inequality, <a href="https://tribuneonlineng.com/76-million-nigerian-adults-are-illiterates/">mass illiteracy</a>, vote buying and selling, the hijacking of the political process by moneybags and godfatherism. </p>
<p>These problems can be solved by enactment and enforcement of laws. You also need ethical campaigns and political education. And the leaders must set the example.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184595/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayo Olukotun received funding from Ford Foundation for scholarly work in the past.</span></em></p>Nigeria’s 23rd year of unbroken democratic rule will be celebrated on 12 June 2022.Ayo Olukotun, Professor and Chair of the department for Governance and Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1732632021-12-07T15:22:07Z2021-12-07T15:22:07ZThe Gambia’s 55-year-old marbles voting system is simple but difficult to cheat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441165/original/file-20220117-15-13semxp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3598%2C2391&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>The Gambia’s President Adama Barrow has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59542813">declared</a> winner of the election held on 4 December. Barrow received around 53% of the vote cast while his closest rival at the polls, Oussainou Darboe, got 28%.</p>
<p>The election – the first since Barrow <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38183906">defeated</a> Yahya Jammeh in 2016 – is largely seen as a test for democracy in The Gambia. Jammeh was forced into exile following refusal to accept his loss at the poll. His 22-year rule had been <a href="https://www.hrw.org/tag/yahya-jammeh">marred</a> by human rights violations and repression of opposition voices. </p>
<p>The ousting of Jammeh opened the political space in the country, allowing mass participation. Citizens had the freedom to affiliate with any political party of their choice without fear of being arrested, detained, and tortured.</p>
<p>As results of the 2021 election came in, representatives from all opposition parties signed off on nearly all the tally sheets read to the independent electoral commission.</p>
<p>However, Darboe and two other candidates, Mama Kandeh and Essa Mbye Faal, said they would <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/499258-gambiadecides-darboe-two-others-reject-election-result.html">not accept</a> the results because counting took longer than expected and because of unspecified problems at some polling stations. </p>
<p>Members of the electoral commission later confirmed that delay in the announcement of the results was made out of precautionary measures to ensure that the votes are fully vetted before being announced.</p>
<p>Barrow’s victory was resounding mainly due to his messages of reconciliation and promoting unity across ethnic and tribal affiliations in the country. </p>
<p>For Darboe, Kandeh and Faal, challenging the results may be a political tactic to energise their supporters. There are no expectations that any error could emerge substantial enough to produce a different outcome. </p>
<p>The Gambia’s democracy has so far endured. </p>
<p>The country has a unique system of voting that does not involve the use of paper ballots in casting votes. Instead, it uses <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-38164870">marbles</a>. </p>
<p>The opposition candidates who rejected the results have not indicated any problem with the voting process, especially as it relates to the use of marbles.</p>
<p>This form of voting has proven to be simple and difficult to cheat.</p>
<h2>Votes cast in marbles</h2>
<p>Voting with marbles was introduced in The Gambia by the <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=gvz-Qy0vrS0C&pg=RA16-PA11&lpg=RA16-PA11&dq=Voting+with+marbles+was+introduced+in+The+Gambia+by+the+British+in+1965&source=bl&ots=KUeurNc-UY&sig=ACfU3U2vHPSpCyP2b_7KCGfRoJgxmwX23Q&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjk7ICmhtH0AhUUV8AKHYT4AH0Q6AF6BAgJEAM#v=onepage&q=Voting%20with%20marbles%20was%20introduced%20in%20The%20Gambia%20by%20the%20British%20in%201965&f=false">British in 1965</a> when the country first obtained its independence because of the low literacy levels in the population at the time. The system has continued to be in use.</p>
<p>In the place of ballot boxes, there is a metal cylinder with a hole in the top. The containers are arranged on a table inside a voting booth and painted with the party colours of candidates as well as their photos for ease of identification. Each voter drops a marble into the container representing the chosen candidate.</p>
<p>The final tool used in this unique form of voting is the counting box. Marbles are emptied into a square tray that is dotted with holes. At the end of the voting, counting is done on the spot. </p>
<p>The holes in the trays get evenly filled with marbles. The total is then tallied and recorded on the spot for representatives of candidates and voters.</p>
<p>Counting on the spot ensures fairness and builds public confidence in the electoral process. </p>
<p>The candidates who have questioned the results have pointed to procedural issues in the delayed counting by the independent electoral commission. No evidence of fraud has been presented to prove that the results were rigged in favour of the incumbent.</p>
<h2>Gambia voting zones</h2>
<p>As a standard rule of election and for ease of identification, the country is divided into zones referred to as constituencies and in each constituency, there are several polling stations where voting takes place. Every polling station is headed by a presiding officer representing the Independent Electoral Commission. </p>
<p>Voters are only allowed to cast their ballots at locations where they have registered to vote. On the election day, the presiding officers have a list to crosscheck the identities of the voters at that location. Voters’ fingers are marked with liquid ink before they get a marble. These measures are taken to prevent individuals from voting twice. </p>
<h2>A two horse race</h2>
<p>The 4 December presidential election was more of a competition between Barrow, the incumbent and candidate of the National People’s Party, and his former vice-president Darboe of the United Democratic Party.</p>
<p>The electoral system in The Gambia is based on first past the post. There is no runoff and any party that manages to record the highest number of total votes cast, however small the margin, is declared winner.</p>
<p>Barrow and Darboe’s political “bromance” came to a grinding halt when Darboe began to express a presidential ambition. Darboe, who is one of the founding members of the United Democratic Party, has repeatedly run for office in the past and lost to Jammeh. </p>
<p>Beyond these two individuals, a number of issues were of significance to voters on 4 December.</p>
<p>They <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/sep/23/gambia-joy-gives-way-to-sinking-distrust-adama-barrow-clings-to-power">include</a> the economy, security, corruption and falling standards of healthcare delivery.</p>
<p>While some of these issues were an assessment of the incumbents’ four years of leadership, there is also a concerning increase in ethnic and tribal politics never seen before in the country.</p>
<h2>Election as a statement</h2>
<p>Although the use of marbles in elections may be considered an obsolete form of voting, it is a process that has so far been transparent and discouraged rigging. </p>
<p>Despite its simplicity, this form of voting has successfully ended a dictatorship in The Gambia. That is clear evidence that the voting system is working. Jammeh may have ruled with fear and intimidation but also respected the voting process which ultimately led to his ouster. </p>
<p>There is talk of introducing paper ballots in conformity with modern standards of voting. But why change to something much more complex when what is already in place is producing the desired outcome of a free and fair election?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alieu Sanneh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Gambia has a unique system of voting that does not involve the use of paper ballots in casting votes – instead it uses marbles.Alieu Sanneh, Political scientist, University of Missouri-St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1716302021-12-06T14:48:26Z2021-12-06T14:48:26ZVote buying is a big problem in Kenya. How to curb it before the 2022 elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431555/original/file-20211111-19-1dad0pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Niyazz/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Vote buying” – when a voter exchanges his or her vote for some form of compensation in an election – plagues many electoral contexts across sub-Saharan African. Over the last two decades, however, Kenya has witnessed some of the highest rates of vote buying in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>According to Afrobarometer data between 2003 and 2014, <a href="https://afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis/analyse-online">more than a quarter</a> of the population said they engaged in vote buying. Afrobarometer’s estimates are likely an understatement of the true scope of the problem. Many people know that the behaviour is illegal and may not reveal their engagement in vote buying to an interviewer knocking at their door. The National Crime Research Centre further <a href="http://crimeresearch.go.ke/publications/Elections%20Crimes%20&%20Offences%20in%20Kenya.pdf">finds</a> that bribery is the most prevalent form of election offence. </p>
<p>With the 2022 Kenyan elections on the horizon, the topic of “vote buying” has <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-10-31-ruto-to-kenyans-elect-your-choice-dont-bow-to-pressure/">returned</a> to the political arena, and several politicians have encouraged the Kenyan electorate to refrain from engaging in the practice. </p>
<p>As someone who worked with several organisations in the field of democracy assistance, and also having academically researched democracies that have serious rule of law violations, I’ve studied this practice. It can change a country’s political course and subvert a key component of a functioning democracy – elections. </p>
<p>Vote buying breaks the link between candidate performance and winning elected office. It <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/25/2/292/1746182">leads to</a> decreases in the quality of services provided by government. In other words, vote-buying is a problem because the most suitable candidates may not win office, and the candidates that win will not be the best candidates to represent the interests of their voters.</p>
<p>Vote-buying also creates perverse incentives for politicians to engage in corruption. For instance, politicians may <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyas-election-jitters-have-roots-in-campaign-financing-its-time-to-act-81693">give kickbacks</a> to big business, who funded their campaigns. Or, as I’ve been told in interviews, having spent money on their campaigns, some Kenyan politicians felt the need to compensate themselves for expenses they incurred during the election period. </p>
<p>How can the practice be stopped? </p>
<p>As I discuss in a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0192512119836283?journalCode=ipsa">recent paper</a>, if a substantial enough number of voters refuse to sell their votes, or the politicians cannot afford what the voters are asking, then the marketplace breaks down and ceases to exist.</p>
<h2>Clarifying the term “vote-buying”</h2>
<p>While generally known as vote buying, the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sebastian-Mazzuca-2/publication/228376442_Who_Gets_Bought_Vote_Buying_Turnout_Buying_and_Other_Strategies/links/00463516c643fe9aff000000/Who-Gets-Bought-Vote-Buying-Turnout-Buying-and-Other-Strategies.pdf">exchange process</a> between politician and voter is a complex social interaction. It involves an exchange between the buyer (vote buying on the part of the politician or their agent) and the seller (vote selling on the part of the voter). </p>
<p>Buyers can attempt to purchase sellers’ allegiance by offering them money or other gifts to show up and vote for a particular candidate or party. </p>
<p>Politicians can also pay someone to stay at home. For example, while working in the field of democracy assistance, I heard focus group respondents talk about Kenyan politicians who showed up with kegs of beer in settlements that they knew did not support them. The idea was to get voters inebriated so that they would be dis-incentivised to vote. Such behaviour on the part of politicians – to give voters remuneration to not vote – is known as <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sebastian-Mazzuca-2/publication/228376442_Who_Gets_Bought_Vote_Buying_Turnout_Buying_and_Other_Strategies/links/00463516c643fe9aff000000/Who-Gets-Bought-Vote-Buying-Turnout-Buying-and-Other-Strategies.pdf">negative turnout buying</a>. Negative turnout buying may be advantageous if a politician knows that a group of voters do not support him or her. Therefore, it is easier to get them to stay at home than vote. </p>
<h2>Curbing vote buying</h2>
<p>It is possible to disrupt, or destroy, the vote-buying marketplace by either disrupting the supply or the demand side. </p>
<p>On the demand side, voters can decide not to ask for bribes and refuse to take them if offered. How is such behaviour achieved? <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/ca/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/brokers-voters-and-clientelism-puzzle-distributive-politics?format=HB&isbn=9781107042209">The literature</a> on the political economy of development has suggested that politicians could no longer afford to bribe voters as countries get wealthier.</p>
<p>It is also possible to attempt to enforce more rigorously or enact stricter laws against vote-buying. In Kenya, vote-trading is a <a href="https://www.idea.int/answer/ans558992161819">crime</a> applied to both the buyer and the seller, which should be in theory enforced through the court system.</p>
<p>However, neither rapid economic development of stricter legal enforcement is a viable solution in the short term. In countries, like Kenya, the <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators">rule of law is weak</a> and economic development is a long-term prospect.</p>
<h2>Social norms and behaviours</h2>
<p>But there are other solutions. Changing social norms and behaviours around vote buying could yield results by making the price for votes unaffordable to politicians, as my article and others show. One approach that could work is <a href="https://www.bhub.org/project/promise-not-to-sell-my-vote/">to ask voters</a> to promise not to sell their vote, as one research project did in The Philippines. </p>
<p>In my research I take a slightly different approach. In a nationally representative survey of Kenyans, who were <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEK66aJWvt0">picked randomly</a> from the Kenyan population, I specifically tested an information campaign that focused on how vote buying decreases the quality and availability of social services. The text of this message reads:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When you accept bribes from candidates, you help elect leaders who will steal money from public services. Therefore, taking a bribe at election time can impoverish your family and your community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I also tested a message that highlighted that vote buying is socially unacceptable. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>When you accept bribes from candidates, you look untrustworthy to your neighbours and members of your community. Therefore, taking a bribe at election time can encourage your community to look down on you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Both of the messages in my study appeared to change people’s attitudes, as fewer voters who were randomly assigned to receive messages in the study said they would sell their votes relative to those who did not receive any message.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26293/w26293.pdf">similar experiment in Uganda</a>, using the same type of messaging, found that whilst
the messaging didn’t stop voters from taking money, they were much more likely to vote for candidates that likely didn’t give them a bribe. </p>
<p>Such behaviour could therefore also discourage vote buying in future elections when politicians see that they wasted their money.</p>
<h2>Addressing politicians</h2>
<p>Policies could also target the supply side – the politicians. </p>
<p>The first option is to change institutional incentives. In the Kenyan case, for example, making elected office less financially desirable, something that <a href="https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/factsheets/factsheet-how-much-do-kenyan-members-parliament-earn-and-are-they-overpaid">has been attempted</a> with only a small amount of success, could help. While it varies somewhat and is difficult to calculate, the take home (net) pay of a Kenyan MP is <a href="https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/spotchecks/less-ksh400000-basic-salary-kenyan-mps-lawmakers-defence-against-taking">approximately</a> 700,000 Kenya shillings (about US$7,000) a month. Indeed, elected politicians’ salaries <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/kenyan-parliamentarians-unite-against-planned-salary-cuts/a-40294197">are high</a> by African standards. Given how high salaries are, prospective politicians could be willing to engage in illicit behaviour to achieve political office. </p>
<p>A second option could be to threaten legal enforcement. But this will be hard to enforce against politicians who are often able to hide their vote-buying behaviour by using agents and sometimes have enough political connections or clout to the bend the judicial system to operate in their favour.</p>
<p>Finally, there’s the intriguing option of attempting to change social norms among politicians. This could involve the public signing of pre-election pacts among candidates. In these pacts, politicians could agree not to engage in vote-buying. A few of these types of pacts have been signed in other countries, <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/11/05/anambra-election-2021-the-countdown-begins/">like Nigeria</a>, some specifically mentioned <a href="https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/67762/Business/Cebu-City-candidates-sign-peace-pact">vote buying</a>. Such public signalling could help change the social norms around such type of behaviour. </p>
<p>Whether the solution is on the supply or demand side, many agree politics in Kenya would improve with a drastic reduction in vote trading.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171630/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Erlich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Vote buying subverts a key component of a functioning democracy - elections.Aaron Erlich, Assistant Professor, Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1684402021-10-25T12:33:28Z2021-10-25T12:33:28ZStudying political science motivates college students to register and vote – new research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427294/original/file-20211019-15011-iydd2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C3982%2C2550&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Students who take political science classes in college are more likely to be civically engaged. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/second-year-student-curren-mandon-right-joins-students-news-photo/1235261763?adppopup=true">Al Seib/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Community college students who take political science classes are more likely to register to vote, turn out to vote and understand constitutional checks and balances. That’s according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X211045982">our study</a> of more than 2,000 students at nine community colleges.</p>
<p>After taking students’ prior civic engagement and other college experiences into account, we found that students who took at least one political science course were 9% more likely to register to vote than those who did not.</p>
<p>Additionally, we found that students who took at least one political science class were 8% more likely to vote. </p>
<p>Improving college student voter turnout is a national issue. After the 2008 presidential election, many states began to <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/new-voting-restrictions-america">adopt restrictive voting</a> laws that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/688343">depressed turnout</a>, notably <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/dhe0000127">among Hispanic college students in the 2016 presidential election</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, we concluded that at least one political science course helped students better understand constitutional checks and balances. Students who had taken political science were 9% more likely to understand that the Supreme Court – and not the president – determines whether laws are constitutional. They were also 17% more likely to understand how Congress can override a presidential veto. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Recent events, including two sets of impeachment proceedings against former President Donald Trump, illustrate the importance of understanding constitutional principles. Around the time of the first impeachment of Trump, <a href="https://www.goacta.org/wp-content/uploads/ee/download/ACTA-Civic-Survey-2019.pdf">almost half of adults</a> in the United States did not know impeachment proceedings originate in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>According to data from the National Study of Learning, Voting, and Engagement, about <a href="https://idhe.tufts.edu/research/national-study-learning-voting-and-engagement-nslve/nslve-data-portal">1 in 4 students</a> – including at both two- and four-year colleges – were not registered to vote in the 2016 or 2018 elections. </p>
<p>In a high-turnout year like the 2016 presidential election, about half of college students did not vote. In a lower-turnout year such as the 2018 midterm election, about 6 in 10 students did not vote. (Data on college student voter turnout during the 2020 election is not yet available.)</p>
<p>Voter turnout matters in close elections, and college students represent sizable percentages of eligible voters across the 50 states, ranging from as low as <a href="https://idhe.tufts.edu/resources-tools/data-portal-visualizations/college-student-vote-potential-2020">3.6% in Alaska to as high as 10.2% in Utah</a>. </p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>We believe it is important to emphasize that our findings were not focusing on college students who majored in political science. We also could not examine the content of their courses or their grades. Finally, we relied on self-reported data, so there is no practical way to confirm that they registered to vote or turned out to vote. However, we do know whether they correctly answered questions about constitutional checks and balances. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>In ongoing research, we are focusing on the ways that co-curricular experiences, such as belonging to campus organizations or holding a position of leadership in a student organization, relate to civic engagement. We hope to offer implications for ways that multiple departments on college and university campuses can take a holistic approach to supporting civic engagement. </p>
<p>This line of research is relevant for colleges and universities that have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2006.11778934">mission statements</a> that include teaching students to be civically engaged. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/00028312034001039">Historically</a>, American schools, colleges and universities have been expected to support civic education. We hope our findings and future research will offer information that faculty and administrators can use to develop curriculums and require courses that support civic engagement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168440/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Taking just one political science class makes college students more likely to show up at the polls, two researchers find.Frank Fernandez, Assistant Professor of Higher Education Administration & Policy, University of FloridaMatthew J Capaldi, PhD Student & Graduate Assistant in Higher Education Administration, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1406862020-06-29T12:11:43Z2020-06-29T12:11:43ZMoney talks: Big business, political strategy and corporate involvement in US state politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343600/original/file-20200623-188931-5lpuzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters rally to have Colorado's then-incoming governor put an up-to-nine-month moratorium on oil and gas development.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/from-left-to-right-sandy-tolland-in-hat-miranda-glasbergen-news-photo/1076896552?adppopup=true">Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political spending by corporations is big business. </p>
<p>As one corporate executive with experience in business-government relations says, “A company that is dependent on government that does not donate to politicians is engaging in corporate malpractice.” </p>
<p>Our research group heard that statement during a series of interviews with industry insiders that we conducted for <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amj.2017.1258">a study on corporate political strategy and involvement</a> in U.S state politics. </p>
<p>In the 2018 election cycle, for example, private interests <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/">spent US$500 million</a> on campaign contributions to U.S. federal election candidates and <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying">nearly $7 billion</a> to lobby federal officials. </p>
<p>As shown by campaign finance monitor the <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/top-spenders">Center for Responsive Politics</a>, those firms most affected by government regulation spend more. The operations of Facebook, for example, could be heavily affected by government legislation, whether from laws concerning <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42096185">net neutrality</a>, <a href="https://gdpr.eu/the-gdpr-meets-its-first-challenge-facebook/">data privacy</a>, <a href="https://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/social-clashes-digital-free-speech">censorship</a> or the company’s classification as a <a href="https://medium.com/swlh/platform-or-publisher-f20f72f832b6">platform or publisher</a>. Facebook spent over $2 million in contributions and $24 million in lobbying <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs//summary?topnumcycle=2018&toprecipcycle=All%20cycles&contribcycle=All%20cycles&lobcycle=All%20cycles&outspendcycle=All%20cycles&id=D000033563">during the same period</a>.</p>
<p>This kind of political spending is also common across state governments. From Alaska to Alabama, <a href="https://www.followthemoney.org/">firms spend huge sums of money</a> to influence policymaking because they depend on their local business environments, resources and regulations. </p>
<p>For example, after <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2008/08-205">Citizens United</a>, a landmark 2010 U.S. Supreme Court decision that freed corporations (as well as nonprofits, unions and other associations) to spend unlimited amounts in elections, political spending skyrocketed. <a href="https://www.followthemoney.org/research/institute-reports/10-years-after-citizens-united-state-races-transformed-by-explosive-growth-in-independent-spending">An examination of 16 states that provided pre-Citizens United data</a> revealed that the 2018 election cycle saw over $540 million in independent spending across their state elections. This is compared with the 2007-2008 election cycle prior to the Citizens United ruling, in which independent spending in these states amounted to $106 million. That’s an over five-fold increase.</p>
<p>As the next election approaches, corporate involvement in state politics is vital to understand. Companies’ attempts to manage state regulations have important effects on their operations directly as well as on state revenues and on the lives of state residents. Corporations can affect <a href="https://academic.oup.com/sf/article-abstract/90/3/947/2235830">the air that you breathe, the water that you drink</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/bd8a878c5fe84ea48ffbcf05b4edba0e">the taxes that you pay</a>. </p>
<h2>External forces spark donations</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amj.2017.1258">new study we conducted</a> with colleagues <a href="https://robins.richmond.edu/faculty-staff/asutton/">Trey Sutton</a> and <a href="https://business.fsu.edu/person/bruce-lamont">Bruce Lamont</a> provides insight into the details of when and why corporations contribute to state gubernatorial and legislative candidates. </p>
<p>We examined political contributions by publicly traded firms in elections for governor and the legislature across the 50 U.S. states. The companies we studied (e.g., ExxonMobil and 3M) all operate in environmentally intensive industries – oil and gas, chemical, energy and manufacturing industries. Specifically, the companies in these industries have industrial manufacturing processes <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/06/10/americas-20-worst-corporate-air-polluters/#403cf82d41c6">that create toxic releases</a>. We also interviewed industry insiders, political affairs consultants and lobbyists to complement our empirical findings. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343567/original/file-20200623-188882-1tzlhzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343567/original/file-20200623-188882-1tzlhzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343567/original/file-20200623-188882-1tzlhzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343567/original/file-20200623-188882-1tzlhzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343567/original/file-20200623-188882-1tzlhzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343567/original/file-20200623-188882-1tzlhzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343567/original/file-20200623-188882-1tzlhzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ExxonMobil is one of many companies that will likely spend a lot of money on upcoming elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/anastasia-hinchsliff-fuels-her-suv-at-an-exxon-mobile-gas-news-photo/103157613?adppopup=true">John Gress/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the core, firms spend when they are dependent on states, meaning that they have vested interests and operations in a state that are subject to regulation. Regulation creates uncertainty for managers – which they don’t like. Spending helps alleviate the uncertainty by influencing what regulation may be imposed. </p>
<p>Our study went beyond this observation, and had four major insights:</p>
<p><strong>1. Companies spend when they are worried about negative media coverage prompting what they perceive to be potentially harmful regulations.</strong></p>
<p>As one executive told us, “We spend a lot of time tracking media and local advocacy groups. We track [them] on a daily basis, and I get a report each week.” </p>
<p>Media coverage can drive public perceptions of corporations and influence politicians’ views. In particular, media coverage can amplify misdeeds of companies across states, which worries managers who do not want to see new regulations. In line with this, we found that the firms spent 70% more in states they operated in when national media coverage of their companies was more negative rather than less negative. </p>
<p>We found that this effect was exclusive to national media coverage as opposed to local media coverage. Specifically, when local media coverage was more negative, it did not appear to affect political spending. </p>
<p><strong>2. Firms spend when there are powerful social movement organizations – for example, environmental protection groups – within a state.</strong></p>
<p>“Public relations firms are routinely engaged to monitor activists and the media, because if you don’t watch them, they can create regulatory change. You have to get ahead of it,” an executive said. </p>
<p>Social movement organizations (e.g., Sierra Club and the Rainforest Action Network) help <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3312913?casa_token=5XA3RUoopBYAAAAA%3Agc06Z6cwRA6ODbgPUOkHwk2Ea7XB43KocZhFtMZjaTyH0UlKbOim5uAZS9QniQ1k9hXjtwGYyCEbovm__npFAuKOb467j57cqa12omJC4o1tzHJrUl--&seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">shape public opinion on important issues, pursue institutional change and can prompt legal reform</a> as well, which is a concern to corporations. Our research indicated that in states where they had operations, firms spent 102% more when facing greater opposition from social movement organizations than they would have on average. </p>
<p><strong>3. Firms spend to gain a seat at the ‘legislative table’ to communicate their interests.</strong></p>
<p>A political affairs consultant and lobbyist said, “Regulations are a negotiation, there is not a logic, no rule of law, lobbyists come in here…” In essence, legislators rely on policy experts and analysts, among others, when crafting new legislation, but often, solutions can be unclear with competing demands and interests. </p>
<p>Our interviewees shared with us that companies spread their contributions around to those politicians who they believe will listen to their causes and concerns – regardless of party. </p>
<p>They described themselves as wanting their voices heard on particular issues and as important players in the states in which they operate due to the employment and tax base they bring to states. </p>
<p>Boeing, for example, is the <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-tops-53500-local-employees-as-it-begins-nationwide-hiring-push/">largest private employer in the state</a> of Washington and has been able to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-incentives/boeing-lobby-group-team-up-to-defend-8-7-billion-in-state-tax-breaks-idUSKBN14U23V">secure tax breaks</a> as a result. This is despite <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/boeing-discharge-to-duwamish-violates-pcb-standards/">documented environmental problems that Boeing’s operations have had in the state.</a> </p>
<p><strong>4. Firms spend because they see it as <a href="https://www.businessroundtable.org/about-us">consistent with their responsibility to stakeholders</a>.</strong> </p>
<p>“Companies mostly want certainty, they want to know the bottom line, and engagement can create opportunities,” said one political affairs consultant. </p>
<p>Corporations have a legal and ethical responsibility to their stakeholders. Company leaders often believe they are upholding their responsibilities to shareholders, employees, communities, customers and suppliers by participating in the political process. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343565/original/file-20200623-188936-v56a1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343565/original/file-20200623-188936-v56a1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343565/original/file-20200623-188936-v56a1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343565/original/file-20200623-188936-v56a1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343565/original/file-20200623-188936-v56a1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343565/original/file-20200623-188936-v56a1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343565/original/file-20200623-188936-v56a1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">California often sets more stringent environmental policies than most other states.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/state-capitol-building-sacramento-california-news-photo/661870070?adppopup=true">Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are the stakes?</h2>
<p>There can be huge repercussions for companies in state regulation. As one political affairs consultant told us, “[Regulation] is the pot at the end of the rainbow that could create endless possibilities of profit, it’s the only thing that stands between them and unending profits…” </p>
<p>Ride hailing service Uber, for example, has mounted <a href="https://www.theregreview.org/2018/06/28/schriever-uber-lyft-lobby-deregulation-preemption/">protracted political campaigns</a> aimed at state legislatures and local governments to protect the company’s interests. The result, among others: The ride hailing service has been able to get independent contractor status for their drivers in many states, which means the company does not have to provide unemployment insurance, workers’ compensation and other benefits. </p>
<p>Passage of regulations in large states like California, for example, can have nearly as much impact as a national regulation – making their passage far more significant for companies working nationally. </p>
<p>For example, since California sets more <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-california-gets-to-write-its-own-auto-emissions-standards-5-questions-answered-94379">stringent emissions standards</a> for vehicles than most other states, manufacturers designing cars for the U.S. market must make sure their vehicles can pass these standards. In this way, California and other states <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-22/nevada-will-adopt-californias-car-pollution-standards">following its lead</a> pose a larger regulatory hurdle for auto manufacturers. </p>
<h2>Where does this leave us?</h2>
<p>Taken together, corporate involvement in state politics is an important phenomenon. In addition to providing needed products and services, corporations bring jobs and increased investment to states, which can strengthen communities and state economies. Their operations also can bring health and environmental problems for state residents, however.</p>
<p>Given the changed business landscape – <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-much-covid-19-cost-those-businesses-that-stayed-open-11592910575">and increased operating costs</a> – caused by the coronavirus pandemic, we expect that businesses across the country will continue to be interested in influencing policies ranging from workplace safety to local and state tax breaks. This interest will likely translate into significant spending in the upcoming election, to both major parties and their candidates.</p>
<p>And that political spending will affect everything from your wallet to your health.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140686/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Holmes is affiliated with both Florida State University and the University of Johannesburg. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard A. Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Millions of dollars are spent every election by corporations that want to influence state regulations and policies, and that’s likely to continue in the upcoming election.Richard A. Devine, American UniversityR. Michael Holmes Jr., Jim Moran Associate Professor of Strategic Management, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1274172019-11-20T14:01:24Z2019-11-20T14:01:24ZAn economist’s guide to watching the Atlanta 2020 presidential debate: 3 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302690/original/file-20191120-547-1jerxzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Media and others prepare the stage for the Democratic presidential debate in Atlanta.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/John Amis</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The top candidates vying to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2020 <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-debate-the-november-debate-start-time-candidates-topics-watch-free-live-stream-online-tv-channel/">will soon take the stage</a> in Atlanta for their fifth televised debate. </p>
<p>With 10 people and only two hours to discuss dozens of complicated issues, viewers may have a hard time keeping up as candidates <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/31/democratic-debate-results-takeaways-1441786">wade into the weeds</a> of their pet policy proposals. </p>
<p>Fortunately, our scholars – who have written <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/2020-us-presidential-election-38597">dozens of articles on the key issues</a> of the 2020 Democratic primary campaign, as well as <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-1860-and-1968-can-teach-america-about-the-2020-presidential-election-121294">quite</a> a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-dark-money-5-questions-answered-118310">few</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-african-american-reparations-explained-114124">obscure</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/pell-grants-are-getting-their-due-in-the-2020-campaign-125116">ones</a> – have you covered. </p>
<p>Here are three economic issues almost certain to come up in the Nov. 20 debate, along with a story from our archive that provides some context to help you evaluate what the candidates say.</p>
<h2>Health care’s high price</h2>
<p>Voters say health care <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/244367/top-issues-voters-healthcare-economy-immigration.aspx">is the top issue heading into 2020</a> – especially among Democrats. So it’s hardly a surprise that the topic <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/10/15/20914415/democratic-debates-health-care-issues">has dominated</a> the last four debates and will almost certainly be a hot topic tonight.</p>
<p>Several of the Democratic candidates, such as Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, <a href="https://theconversation.com/medicare-for-all-could-be-cheaper-than-you-think-81883">are proposing wholesale changes</a> to the U.S. system of health care. How to pay for “Medicare for All” – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/01/politics/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all-financing-plan/index.html">without raising taxes</a> on the middle class – has been a sticking point for the more ambitious plans. </p>
<p>Gerald Friedman, an economist at University of Massachusetts Amherst, has crunched the numbers on several different versions of a single-payer health care system and estimates a full-scale plan could cost as much as US$40 trillion over a decade. </p>
<p>But there’s an easier and cheaper way to get to Medicare for all, he argues: Simply <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-could-afford-medicare-for-all-124462">expand the existing Medicare program to everyone</a>. </p>
<p>Medicare’s “limited scope, skimpy benefits and cost-sharing keep costs low,” he writes, yet “it provides meaningful protection against the potentially crippling cost of accident or illness.”</p>
<h2>The economics of Dreamers</h2>
<p>Immigration is <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/244367/top-issues-voters-healthcare-economy-immigration.aspx">another issue of importance</a> to Democratic voters and one that’s been frequently on the lips of their candidates. Debate moderators from The Washington Post and MSNBC are likely to bring up a recent Supreme Court hearing involving an Obama-era program. </p>
<p>The court <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/what-happens-daca-holders-if-supreme-court-allows-trump-end-n1081891">heard arguments</a> over whether Trump can end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/daca-42970">DACA, program</a>. DACA allowed hundreds of thousands of young adults who were brought to the U.S. as children but lacked legal status – often referred to as Dreamers – to work and study without fear of deportation. </p>
<p>The hearing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/trump-administration-tells-supreme-court-it-owns-termination-of-daca-program/2019/11/12/2ac4f4ea-0545-11ea-b17d-8b867891d39d_story.html">focused on whether the president has the right to terminate</a> the program. CUNY sociology professor Amy Hsin, however, believes it’s important to assess the economic impact of Dreamers, who, according to her analysis, <a href="https://theconversation.com/daca-isnt-just-about-social-justice-legalizing-dreamers-makes-economic-sense-too-90603">promote growth and lift wages</a>. </p>
<p>“Overall, we estimate that the increases in productivity under the DREAM Act would raise the United States GDP by $15.2 billion and significantly increase tax revenue,” writes Hsin, who’s also an economist. </p>
<h2>Trade and farmers</h2>
<p>U.S. trade policy has been an important economic topic ever since Trump launched his trade war against China nearly two years ago. It’s also among the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/real_clear_opinion_research/new_poll_shows_health_care_is_voters_top_concern.html">top concerns on voters’ minds</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, compared with health care and immigration, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/10/15/20914415/democratic-debates-health-care-issues">it hasn’t actually come up much</a> in the Democratic debates. With “phase one” of a trade deal with China reportedly close – and the costs borne by American companies and consumers rising – that may change tonight.</p>
<p>As Iowa State University scholars Wendong Zhang, Lulu Rodriguez and Shuyang Qu explain, farmers in particular <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-costs-factbox/factbox-from-phone-makers-to-farmers-the-toll-of-trumps-trade-wars-idUSKCN1VE00B">have suffered</a> as a result of the trade war. At the same time, Democratic candidates gearing up for the Iowa caucuses – the first nominating contest in the primary election season, held in February – <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/10/10/768635489/farmers-sticking-by-trump-even-as-trade-wars-bite">have struggled to win</a> the support of farm country.</p>
<p>So Zhang, Rodriguez and Qu <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-midwest-farmers-hurt-by-the-u-s-china-trade-war-still-support-trump-126303">surveyed corn and soybean farmers</a> in the Midwest to learn why. They found that despite the mounting costs of Chinese tariffs, farmers still back the president.</p>
<p>As an Illinois farmer told them, “The Chinese do not play by the rules… They cancel shipment orders that are not in their favor. They continue to steal our patents. Only President Trump has tried to stop these unfair trade practices.”</p>
<p>[ <em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Health care, immigration and trade have been hot topics during the campaign and are likely to come up during the fifth Democratic debate.Bryan Keogh, Managing EditorNicole Zelniker, Editorial Researcher, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1219002019-08-15T17:58:24Z2019-08-15T17:58:24ZPeterloo massacre: how women’s bravery helped change British politics forever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288148/original/file-20190815-136180-17z59nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Print of the Peterloo Massacre published by Richard Carlile in 1819.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/manchesterarchiveplus/6045102539">Flickr/ManchesterArchives</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>St. Peter’s Fields in Manchester: the <a href="http://www.peterloomassacre.org/history.html">year is 1819</a>, and a crowd of around 60,000 peaceful pro-democracy and antipoverty protesters have gathered to hear radical speaker <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Henry-Hunt">Henry Hunt</a> call for parliamentary reform. What should have been a peaceful appeal, ends with an estimated <a href="https://wiganlanebooks.co.uk/books/local-history/the-casualties-of-peterloo-by-michael-bush/">18 dead and hundreds injured</a>. </p>
<p>This was a time in Britain’s history when most people didn’t have the vote and many regarded the parliamentary system – which was based on <a href="http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/pathways/citizenship/struggle_democracy/getting_vote.htm">property ownership and heavily weighted towards the south of England</a> – as unrepresentative and unfair. Factory workers had very few rights and most of them worked in appalling conditions. </p>
<p>As Hunt began his speech, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-45563005">the order was given</a> for him to be arrested. After he had given himself up and again urged the crowd to order, the volunteer Manchester Yeomanry Cavalry attacked the platform, the flags, and those around with sabres, while special constables weighed in with truncheons. A charge into the panicking crowd by the 15th Hussars completed the rout. </p>
<p>As well as an attack on the working classes, Peterloo was also an episode of violence against women. According to the <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Casualties-Peterloo-Professor-Michael-Bush/dp/1859361250">historian Michael Bush</a>, women formed perhaps one in eight of the crowd, but more than a quarter of those injured. They were not only twice as likely as men to be injured, but also more likely to be injured by truncheons and sabres. </p>
<p>This was no accident, for female reformers formed part of the guard for the flags and banners on the platform, which were attacked and seized by the Manchester Yeomanry cavalry as soon as Henry Hunt had been arrested. But how did the women come to be in such an exposed position and why were they attacked without quarter? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288144/original/file-20190815-136208-12od21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288144/original/file-20190815-136208-12od21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=835&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288144/original/file-20190815-136208-12od21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=835&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288144/original/file-20190815-136208-12od21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=835&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288144/original/file-20190815-136208-12od21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288144/original/file-20190815-136208-12od21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288144/original/file-20190815-136208-12od21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The hostile ‘Belle Alliance’ cartoon of female reformers (July 1819) by George Cruikshank.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.britishmuseum.org/join_in/using_digital_images/using_digital_images.aspx?asset_id=177501001&objectId=1648229&partId=1">British Museum</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/protest-democracy-1818-1820/female-reformers/">The female reform societies</a> of Lancashire were a novelty, formed in the summer of 1819 in the weeks before the great Manchester meeting of August 16. They were not asking for votes for women, but they were claiming the vote for families, and a say in how that vote was cast. In an address which was to have been presented on the platform at Peterloo, The Manchester Female Reformers declared that “as wives, mothers, daughters, in their social, domestic, moral capacities, they come forward in support of the sacred cause of liberty”. </p>
<p>They were there supporting their husbands, fathers and sons in the struggle for a radical reform of parliament. They took care to be feminine, but not what we would call feminists, yet they stretched the boundaries of femininity to breaking point and, in the eyes of government loyalists, renounced their right to special treatment. </p>
<p>More provocative still, parties of female reformers on reforming platforms presented flags and caps of liberty to the male reform leaders. The cap of liberty had been the symbol of revolution in France, but on the Manchester Reformers’ flag it was carried by the figure of Britannia, as shown on English coinage until the 1790s.</p>
<p>This ceremony took the patriotic ritual of women presenting colours to military regiments and adapted it to radical ends. The Manchester Female Reformers planned to proclaim: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>May our flag never be unfurled but in the cause of peace and reform, and then may a female’s curse pursue the coward who deserts the standard.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At previous meetings, the authorities had been unable to capture the radical colours and had suffered some humiliating rebuffs. The volunteer Yeomanry at Manchester were determined to reverse these defeats. When he heard the women would be on the platform again at Manchester, the Bolton magistrate and spymaster Colonel Fletcher wrote privately that such meetings “ought to be suppressed, even though in such suppression, a vigour beyond the strict letter of the law may be used in so doing”. With Fletcher looking on, this was exactly what happened at Peterloo. </p>
<h2>‘Women beaten to the ground by truncheons’</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.oxforddnb.com/view/10.1093/ref:odnb/9780198614128.001.0001/odnb-9780198614128-e-369224">Mary Fildes</a>, president of the Manchester Female Reformers, <a href="https://spartacus-educational.com/PRfields.htm">is depicted in prints</a> waving a radical flag from the front of the platform as the troops attack. She guarded her flag until the last minute, then jumped from the platform, catching her white dress on a nail and being cut by a sabre as she struggled to get free. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288158/original/file-20190815-136203-1096zjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288158/original/file-20190815-136203-1096zjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288158/original/file-20190815-136203-1096zjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288158/original/file-20190815-136203-1096zjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288158/original/file-20190815-136203-1096zjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1183&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288158/original/file-20190815-136203-1096zjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1183&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288158/original/file-20190815-136203-1096zjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1183&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cropped version of ‘Britons strike home’ (August 1819) by George Cruikshank.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.britishmuseum.org/join_in/using_digital_images/using_digital_images.aspx?asset_id=62823001&objectId=1503463&partId=1">British Museum</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<p>As she ran, she was beaten to the ground by a special constable who seized her embroidered handkerchief-flag, and then dodged another sabre blow and escaped into hiding for the next fortnight – although badly wounded she survived and continued to campaign for the vote.</p>
<p>Others were arrested in her stead and detained for days without trial in wretched conditions. One of them, <a href="https://phm.org.uk/blogposts/the-women-of-peterloo/">Elizabeth Gaunt</a>, suffered a miscarriage afterwards – her unborn child is listed as one of the victims of Peterloo on <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49333004">the new memorial in Manchester</a>. </p>
<p>George Cruikshank’s <a href="https://www.bl.uk/romantics-and-victorians/articles/the-peterloo-massacre">famous graphic images</a> of troops attacking defenceless women and children formed the enduring image of Peterloo in the public mind. After this propaganda disaster, next time round, in 1832, the government dared not risk sending in troops against unarmed crowds of reformers gathered in cities such as Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. The House of Lords backed down at the third time of asking and the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/houseofcommons/reformacts/overview/reformact1832/">Great Reform Act</a> was passed.</p>
<p>Behind Britain’s famous long history of gradual reform lay the shock of Peterloo. And behind the granting of the franchise to more men lay the bravery of women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Poole is affiliated with the Peterloo Memorial Campaign <a href="http://www.peterloomassacre.org">www.peterloomassacre.org</a> </span></em></p>As well as an attack on the working classes, Peterloo was also an episode of violence against women.Robert Poole, Professor of History, University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1165072019-05-12T20:12:38Z2019-05-12T20:12:38ZAvoid the politics and let artificial intelligence decide your vote in the next election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273730/original/file-20190510-183093-1wx4p7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=80%2C89%2C2914%2C1778&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Would you let AI decide who you should vote for?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/CYCLONEPROJECT </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If trust in our politicians <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-trust-in-politicians-and-democracy-hits-an-all-time-low-new-research-108161">is at an all time low</a>, maybe it’s time to reconsider how we elect them in the first place.</p>
<p>Can artificial intelligence (AI) help with our voting decisions?</p>
<p>Music and video streaming services already suggest songs, movies or TV shows that we will probably enjoy. Online shopping sites helpfully suggest other products we might like to buy. All this is based on what we’ve already watched, listened to or bought. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-ai-meets-your-shopping-experience-it-knows-what-you-buy-and-what-you-ought-to-buy-101737">When AI meets your shopping experience it knows what you buy – and what you ought to buy</a>
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<p>So why not have a similar system to suggest whom we should vote for?</p>
<p>With preferential voting, political parties and candidates already issue how-to-vote cards. But what if an AI service could create a personalised how-to-vote card for each and every one of us?</p>
<h2>How do we decide?</h2>
<p>Some of us are “rusted on” voters who back the same party, come what may, while others are “swinging voters” who compare options before making a choice. </p>
<p>Politicians tend to focus on the latter during election campaigns, as they know these voters may well decide their fate.</p>
<p>Politicians may have different beliefs, values and policy proposals. But if we analyse their <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2015/06/the-art-of-political-persuasion/">persuasion techniques</a>, there are striking similarities in the <em>way in which</em> politicians try to persuade us to vote for them.</p>
<p>They talk of “objective evidence” and warn voters about the “real cost” of their opponent’s policies.</p>
<p>Yet research shows we tend to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111157" title="Economics and Politics in the 1984 American Presidential Election">overrate the persuasiveness of “hip-pocket” warnings</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.0038-4941.2004.08501010.x" title="Social Identity Theory and Party Identification">underestimate the impact of party identification</a>.</p>
<p>When it comes to debating politics, we may try to find a rational or logical argument based on expertise to silence our opponent. </p>
<p>Or we may resort to the argument that our opponent will be the one who ends up having to pay for their misguided beliefs.</p>
<p>But it’s these kinds of arguments (about money or logic) that prove remarkably ineffective. What is more likely to win over swinging voters are appeals that arouse emotion (particularly fear) and tribal sentiments (“us-them thinking”).</p>
<p>US social psychologist Jonathan Haidt says we tend to accept new information more readily if it <a href="https://righteousmind.com/">aligns with our deeply held beliefs and values</a>, while Australian psychologist Katharine Greenaway and colleagues say we find information useful and trustworthy <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0146167214559709" title="Shared Identity Is Key to Effective Communication">if it’s presented to us by someone we regard as “one of us”</a>.</p>
<p>So is there a better way for us voters to determine whom we should be voting for? Is there a way to take values, emotions and tribalism out of the equation? That’s where AI comes in.</p>
<h2>AI is already ‘helping’ us decide things</h2>
<p>Political parties have the same problem that faces retailers, hotels, banks and many other businesses, in that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauljankowski/2016/08/24/5-ways-to-break-through-the-noise/">the public is constantly bombarded with too much marketing noise</a> and far too many messages.</p>
<p>To solve this problem of selling, business has turned to AI.</p>
<p>When booking accommodation on a hotel website, you may find yourself in a conversation with an AI <a href="https://blog.growthbot.org/how-chatbots-use-ai-machine-learning-and-nlp-to-transform-marketing-and-sales">chatbot</a>. Based on the information you provide, the chatbot may suggest activities or <a href="https://chatbotslife.com/top-5-ways-chatbots-are-revolutionizing-the-hotel-industry-a3a07e7ea895">persuade you to upgrade your room, book a hire car</a>, or even get a massage.</p>
<p>Call your bank, telco or other service provider and you most likely <a href="https://www.smartsheet.com/voice-assistants-artificial-intelligence">interact with an AI voice assistant</a>: “In a few words, please tell us the reason for your call.” </p>
<p>Retailers are capturing and analysing your purchase data to develop <a href="https://www.quantium.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Case-Study-WOW-Personalisation.pdf">personalised offers</a>, and using AI to influence and <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/11/how-predictive-ai-will-change-shopping">predict</a> what you are about to buy next.</p>
<p>Supermarkets such as the UK-based <a href="https://www.information-age.com/tesco-using-ai-gain-customer-insight-123466328/">Tesco</a>, US giant <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2017/08/29/how-walmart-is-using-machine-learning-ai-iot-and-big-data-to-boost-retail-performance/#740084f66cb1">Walmart</a>, and even <a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/woolworths-looks-to-large-scale-conversational-ai-518016">Woolworths</a> in Australia are investing heavily in this area.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-ai-meets-your-shopping-experience-it-knows-what-you-buy-and-what-you-ought-to-buy-101737">When AI meets your shopping experience it knows what you buy – and what you ought to buy</a>
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<h2>Politicians already use AI to target you</h2>
<p>Given voters are more likely to respond positively to a political message if it resonates with them, political parties try to target voters with relevant messages. To do that, they too <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-artificial-intelligence-conquered-democracy-77675">employ AI</a>.</p>
<p>In the same way businesses use <a href="https://strikesocial.com/blog/retargeting-social-media-ads/">retargeting</a> strategies to persuade us to buy or act, politicians now do the same.</p>
<p>Retargeting is the activity of tracking a person’s online activity. It includes what they comment on, what sites they visit, the products they research, and what articles they “like”. </p>
<p>Using this information, a politician can then send a <a href="https://becominghuman.ai/machine-learning-and-retargeting-9ffb77d768c3">customised message</a>.</p>
<h2>AI for the people</h2>
<p>If politicians are using AI to try to persuade us how to vote, why not flip this around and give us the AI tools needed to help us decide how to vote?</p>
<p>Some media companies already have online questionnaires – such as the ABC’s <a href="https://votecompass.abc.net.au/">Vote Compass</a> and News Corp’s <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/how-should-i-vote-find-out-which-party-best-represents-your-views/news-story/6f27f112914987511574f5c549d69532">How should I vote?</a> – that try to predict your political leaning.</p>
<p>While this may be a useful tool for some, you still need to follow political news and current affairs to make sense of many of the questions. So tools like these appear targeted at the already politically engaged.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-us-from-the-risks-of-advanced-artificial-intelligence-we-need-to-act-now-107615">To protect us from the risks of advanced artificial intelligence, we need to act now</a>
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<p>What if there was a tool that did not ask you anything but instead you gave it access to your digital footprint. This could be your browsing history, your shopping habits, your location data, and even your social media activity. In fact, anything that showed how you lived, but on your terms.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, no such tool exists yet, as far as we are aware.</p>
<p>But why should the politicians have the AI and not you, the voter? Surely it’s only a matter of time before such a tool is available to us.</p>
<p>Who knows what it might say about you? It might even change the mind of a “rusted on” voter. Now that would be something new for political parties to consider.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Mols is Senior Lecturer in Political Science at the University of Queensland. He receives research funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Roberts is a Chief Investigator at the Australian Centre for Robotic Vision. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Mortimer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plenty of services use AI to study your behaviour to suggest new things to you. So could such a tool help you decide how to vote?Frank Mols, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, The University of QueenslandGary Mortimer, Associate Professor in Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, Queensland University of TechnologyJonathan Roberts, Professor in Robotics, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1046262018-10-26T10:42:11Z2018-10-26T10:42:11ZFlorida’s Amendment 4: Restoring voting rights to people with felonies might also reduce crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242477/original/file-20181026-7071-lxktvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A felony voting rights advocate in Kentucky.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Felons-Voting/d06bd23ea64743b78454d1f1e725b83e/1/0">AP Photo/Roger Alford</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Nov. 6, voters in Florida will consider <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Voting_Rights_Restoration_for_Felons_Initiative_(2018)">a ballot measure</a> that would restore the right to vote to 1 million citizens who are currently not able to vote because they have felony convictions.</p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">My research</a> finds that when Virginia restored voting rights, ex-offenders became more trusting of government and the criminal justice system. These attitudes are known to make it easier for citizens to re-enter society after being released from prison and decrease their tendency to commit additional crimes.</p>
<p>The results from my study in Virginia might give a glimpse of what would be expected if the Florida measure, called Amendment 4, passes.</p>
<h2>Florida’s felony disenfranchisement laws</h2>
<p>More than <a href="http://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/6-Million-Lost-Voters.pdf">6 million</a> U.S. citizens do not have the right to vote due to state laws that limit the voting rights of those convicted of a felony.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/criminal-disenfranchisement-laws-across-united-states">All but four states</a> automatically restore voting rights to people after they are released from prison, or after completion of parole or probation. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-florida">Florida</a>, however, voting rights are never automatically restored.</p>
<p>They can only be restored by an application to the <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/clemency.shtml">Executive Clemency Board</a> – a four-member panel including both the governor and the attorney general. Citizens must wait at least five years after completing their sentence before applying. The clemency board is able to reject applications for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpPyLcQ2vdI">any reason</a>, including <a href="http://fairelectionsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/Hand-v.-Scott-Complaint.pdf">traffic violations</a>. </p>
<p>Under current Gov. Rick Scott, the clemency board approved <a href="http://fairelectionsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/Hand-v.-Scott-Complaint.pdf">fewer than 2,000 restorations</a> of voting rights over six years. There is a current <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/docs/reports/Annual%20Report%202017%20for%20web.pdf">backlog</a> of more than 10,000 applications.</p>
<p>Given these strict laws, more than 1.6 million voting-age citizens in Florida do not have the right to vote – including <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/">more than 1 out of every 5 black citizens</a> statewide. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.fl-counties.com/amendment-4">Amendment 4</a> would change the Florida State Constitution. If the referendum passes, voting rights will automatically be restored to all citizens who finish probation. This change would apply to all felonies except for murder and sex crimes.</p>
<h2>New research from Virginia</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.restore.virginia.gov/">Virginia</a>, an ex-offender can only regain their right to vote if the governor signs an executive order personally restoring their civil rights.</p>
<p>Typically, previous governors waited for people to apply and considered individual applications for restoration <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-virginia">with varying scrutiny</a>. But in 2016 and 2017, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe made the unprecedented move to proactively restore voting rights to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-gov-mcauliffe-says-he-has-broken-us-record-for-restoring-voting-rights/2017/04/27/55b5591a-2b8b-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html?utm_term=.598ed4aa932e">more than 150,000 ex-offenders</a> – more than any other governor in U.S. history.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Steve Helber</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I went to Virginia during the November 2017 statewide election, shortly after many new restoration orders had been processed. I <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">recruited a sample of 93 citizens</a> with felony convictions to complete two surveys – one before the election, and one after.</p>
<p>More than 70 percent of these individuals already had their voting rights restored by the governor, but many of them were not aware of their newly restored rights.</p>
<p>I randomly divided them into groups. After the first survey and before the election, individuals in one group were informed about whether their voting rights had been restored. Individuals in another group were not provided with this information. I then compared the attitudes within the two groups before and after the election.</p>
<p>Since many subjects were unaware that their voting rights had already been restored, the study randomly increased information about their voting rights. Because the two groups being compared are similar in every way – except for the information they received about voting rights – I am able to measure the effects of learning that your right to vote has been restored. </p>
<p>The results?</p>
<p>Citizens who were told whether their voting rights had been restored became more trusting of government and the criminal justice system compared to those who were not provided with this information. They also viewed the U.S. government as more fair and representative. And they became more trusting of the police and more willing to cooperate with law enforcement.</p>
<p>These findings corroborate results from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">another study</a> I conducted in November 2014. The earlier study similarly informed some citizens with felony convictions in Ohio that their voting rights had been restored. Compared to another group who was not provided with this information, subjects who were informed that their voting rights had been restored reported higher trust in the government and the police.</p>
<p>These trusting and pro-democratic attitudes <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1996.tb01220.x">are known to help</a> citizens reintegrate into their communities upon release from prison.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/10430-000">Research</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716206286898">suggests</a> <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=205090">citizens</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474510385641">returning from prison</a> reintegrate more successfully if they are able to transition from an identity as a “criminal” to an identity of a “law-abiding citizen.” </p>
<p>Not being allowed to vote creates a lasting stigma that makes it harder for them to see themselves as valuable members of society. On the other hand, being encouraged to vote causes people to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000168">more informed</a> and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272681">more trusting</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Causes_of_Delinquency.html?id=53MNtMqy0fIC">Research on crime</a> also suggests that people are more likely to obey laws when they believe those laws were created through a fair process. Individuals who were informed about their voting rights also perceived the government as more fair and representative. Thus voting rights might make it easier for returning citizens to reintegrate into society, while also reducing the incentives to commit further crimes. </p>
<h2>Lessons for Amendment 4</h2>
<p>Policies regulating the voting rights of ex-offenders have historically been a <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0160323X0503700104">partisan issue</a>, with Democrats supporting voting rights and Republicans supporting voting restrictions. </p>
<p>But Amendment 4 has had strong <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/florida-felon-vote-bipartisan-df6cff80d5f8/">bipartisan</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/magazine/ex-felons-voting-rights-florida.html">support</a>. One argument that <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272685">increases support</a> on both sides is that <a href="https://www.lwvfl.org/amendments/amendment4/">restoring voting rights would decrease crime</a>.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3088970">other</a> <a href="https://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1252&context=blrlj">studies</a> that <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195149326.001.0001">have</a> <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/docs/reports/Recidivism%20Report%202016%20&%202017%20signed.pdf">found</a> a relationship between voting rights and lower crime. But none of them have yet been able to test whether restoring voting rights causes crime to decrease as mine does.</p>
<p>My research provides the first causal evidence that restoring voting rights causes ex-offenders to the very develop attitudes and behaviors that make them more likely to successfully reintegrate into society and avoid returning to crime and prison.</p>
<p>Amendment 4 could not only affect voter turnout and electoral outcomes – it could also decrease crime and the costs of the criminal justice system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104626/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Shineman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows that when ex-offenders are told they’re able to vote, their attitudes about democracy and justice improve. A November ballot measure in Florida hangs in the balance.Victoria Shineman, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1024512018-08-31T16:36:25Z2018-08-31T16:36:25ZCould Andrew Gillum be the next governor of Florida?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234335/original/file-20180830-195325-vud98b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Gillum with wife R. Jai Gillum addresses supporters after winning the Democrat primary for governor.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Florida-Primary/813465e4b6894d379b901cd3ea1e5f7d/17/0">AP Photo/Steve Cannon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum electrified Democrats with his surprising victory in the Florida’s Democratic primary – but will he go on to win in the general election? </p>
<p>Come November, voters will choose between Gillum and Trump-endorsed candidate U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis, who represents Florida’s Sixth Congressional District, won his nomination by a significant margin. Both men are 39 years old, politically experienced Florida natives – perhaps the only two similarities they share.</p>
<p>After trailing in the polls for weeks before the election, Gillum, <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/national/andrew-gillum-makes-history-florida-primary-upset-will-face-ron-desantis-governor-race/8HugVIQ0T4jI2dCpNycwgN/">who spent US$6.5 million in the primary,</a> defeated three opponents who each spent more than $100 million in their campaigns. Gillum, the only candidate who was not a millionaire, received $650,000 in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/28/politics/arizona-florida-primary-senate-governor/index.html">last-minute contributions</a> from donors such as Tom Steyer and George Soros. </p>
<p>He now joins <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-stacey-abrams-black-girl-magic-turned-georgia-a-bit-more-blue-97117">Georgia’s Stacey Abrams</a> and Maryland’s <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-jealous-venture-capitalist-20180820-story.html#">Ben Jealous</a> – two other young African-Americans with strong chances of winning their state’s gubernatorial elections. Each won their Democratic primaries because of the strong backing from <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-08-29/black-candidates-win-primaries-for-governor-in-3-states">black voters</a>. But because none of them could have won with the black vote alone, their campaigns emphasized issues voters of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/soc4.12179">all races were concerned with</a>, like health care, and education and jobs. All received significant backing in some <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/30/politics/gillum-abrams-jealous-black-governor-democrats/index.html">predominantly white communities</a>.</p>
<p>Their victories are significant and rare because only <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-black/factbox-black-u-s-senators-and-governors-idUSN2044253720080630">four African-Americans have ever served as governors</a> in our nation’s history – but winning during the general election won’t be an easy task.</p>
<h2>An uphill battle?</h2>
<p>Gillum in particular is competing in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in <a href="https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmXoypizjW3WknFiJnKLwHCnL72vedxjQkDDP1mXWo6uco/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Florida.html">20 years</a>. True, former President Barack Obama won Florida twice, but it was by <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=6187023&page=1">close margins</a> – 3.8 percent in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/states/florida.html">2008</a> and 0.9 percent in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/states/florida.html">2012</a>. Then, President Trump again put Florida in the red category in 2016 by defeating Hillary Clinton by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida-president-clinton-trump">a mere 0.8 percent</a>. However, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=V8VhlpAAAAAJ&hl=en">a professor of political science and African-American studies</a>, I believe the unpredictable outcomes in recent national elections – as well as Florida’s tendency to swing from red to blue – should encourage Gillum.</p>
<p>So how can Gillum win? He’ll need a large turnout among his base of minority voters and progressives. He’ll also need to expand his appeal among moderate Democrats and to seek crossover support from Republicans who are dissatisfied with President Trump. In the primary, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/28/us/elections/florida-primary-elections.html">he won only 18 of the state’s 67 counties</a>. Some of these included cities and towns with larger minority populations, but others were rural or suburban predominantly white counties – like Clay, Escambia and Hamilton. Gillum also did well in South Florida counties like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/28/us/elections/florida-primary-elections.html">Broward, Hendry, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for Andrew Gillum, he won’t be running against Ron DeSantis alone. He’s also be running against Donald Trump. </p>
<p>DeSantis is one of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wins-republican-primary-florida-trump-2018-8">Trump’s most loyal allies</a>. Hours after Gillum won the primary, Trump referred to him as “[ DeSantis’s] biggest dream … <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article217505105.html">a failed socialist mayor</a>.”</p>
<h2>Problems at home</h2>
<p>A more troublesome dilemma for Gillum concerns Tallahassee’s problems. </p>
<p>Three years after he entered office, in June 2017, <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/07/20/what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-the-fbi-investigation-hanging-over-andrew-gillums-campaign/">the FBI issued a subpoena of city records</a>. Although Gillum is reportedly not the focus of their corruption investigation, the investigation allows the DeSantis campaign to accuse him of being untrustworthy regardless of the outcome.</p>
<p>Tallahassee also has <a href="https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/local/verify/verify-did-crime-increase-in-tallahassee-under-gillums-leadership/77-588822470">the highest crime rate in Florida</a>, even though crime has actually decreased since Gillum began his term in 2014.</p>
<p>On the positive side, Gillum’s <a href="https://andrewgillum.com/issues/">progressive agenda</a> and endorsement from Bernie Sanders may <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/20/more-young-people-voted-for-bernie-sanders-than-trump-and-clinton-combined-by-a-lot/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.64d3544b704a">appeal to younger voters</a>. During the primary, the Gillum campaign emphasized the mobilization of African-Americans and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/08/29/the-young-people-will-win-post-parkland-vote-in-florida-tests-youth-power/">younger voters</a>. Even before he began his gubernatorial campaign, Gillum carried out several efforts to mobilize young voters in support of progressive causes. About a week after a February 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School resulted in the deaths of 17 students and educators in Parkland, Florida, Gillum led thousands of gun control advocates in a march at Florida State University in Tallahassee. He also opposes Florida’s controversial <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/08/29/the-young-people-will-win-post-parkland-vote-in-florida-tests-youth-power/">“Stand Your Ground Law.”</a></p>
<h2>Race as the ‘elephant in the room’</h2>
<p>Soon after Gillum’s primary victory, the issue of race surfaced. In <a href="https://www.complex.com/life/2018/08/ron-desantis-criticized-racist-rhetoric-black-democratic-opponent-andrew-gillum">a television interview, DeSantis said</a>, “You know, he is an articulate spokesman for those far-left views and he’s a charismatic candidate.” He then said, “The last thing we need to do is to monkey this up by trying to embrace a socialist agenda with huge tax increases and bankrupting the state. That is not going to work. That’s not going to be good for Florida.” </p>
<p>Immediately, a debate surfaced about racialized rhetoric. DeSantis later argued that <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/29/ron-desantis-clarifies-after-taking-heat-for-warning-florida-voters-not-to-monkey-this-up.html">he had no racial intent</a>. But, DeSantis has taken heat before. He referred to Puerto Rican candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a “<a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/ron-desantis-trump-ad-704926/">girl of whatever she is</a>” after she won the Democratic primary in New York’s 14th Congressional District.</p>
<p>He also was criticized by Democrats – and praised by Republicans – because of <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/ron-desantis-trump-ad-704926/">a controversial campaign ad</a> that featured him showing his young daughter how to “build the wall” and reading Trump’s “The Art of the Deal” to his infant son. </p>
<p>Regardless of the outcome, this will be a campaign that won’t soon be forgotten in Florida.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102451/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sharon D. Wright Austin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The mayor of Tallahassee underspent three rivals to win the state’s Democratic primary. But what awaits in the general election?Sharon D. Wright Austin, Professor of Political Science and Director of the African American Studies Program, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/841462017-09-28T18:46:22Z2017-09-28T18:46:22ZHow land reform and rural development can help reduce poverty in South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187171/original/file-20170922-13425-70orxn.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rural poverty affects a growing number of people in South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa will need to review its land reform policy, with an eye to boosting productive land use among the rural poor, if it is to push back rising poverty levels.</p>
<p>The country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-shift-in-thinking-is-needed-to-counter-south-africas-startling-rise-in-poverty-83462">poverty levels</a> have increased sharply over the past five years with an additional 3 million people now classified as living in absolute poverty. This means about 34 million people from a population of 55 million <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10334">lack basic necessities</a> like housing, transport, food, heating and proper clothing.</p>
<p>Much of the commentary on these sad statistics has emphasised the poor performance of urban job creation efforts and the country’s education system. Little has been said about the role of rural development or land reform.</p>
<p>This is a major omission given that about <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS">35%</a> of South Africa’s population live in rural areas. They are among the worst affected by the rising poverty levels. </p>
<p>Large tracts of land lie fallow in the country’s rural areas, particularly in former homelands (surrogate states created by the apartheid government). They were fully integrated into South Africa in 1994 bringing with them large amounts of land under traditional authorities.</p>
<p>Research by the Human Sciences Research Council suggests that poverty levels can be pushed back significantly if policies are put in place that focus on food security and creating viable pathways to prosperity for the rural poor. This would be particularly true if land reform helped people develop the means of producing food, generating value and employing people. </p>
<h2>The problem</h2>
<p>Researchers <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/uploads/pageContent/624/Poverty.pdf">investigating</a> the land needs of marginal communities, such as farm workers and rural households in the former homelands, have uncovered a considerable desire for opportunities on the land.</p>
<p>But they found that municipalities, government departments and banks were offering relatively little assistance to poorer would-be farmers seeking to improve their land and its value. </p>
<p>In the former homelands in particular, many families reportedly felt opportunities existed literally on their doorsteps but they lacked the means and support to grasp them. A common response among young people to the absence of such opportunities is to pick up and leave for the cities.</p>
<p>The need to rekindle rural development in South Africa is widely recognised even within the government. The country has lots of policies that speak to the ideal of lifting the rural poor out of poverty. Some policies are just not followed while others have proven to be inappropriate.</p>
<p>A fundamental problem underpinning successive rural development initiatives has been the split between the two main strands of government land reform policy: <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/land-restitution-south-africa-1994">land restitution</a> and <a href="http://www.plaas.org.za/plaas-publication/FC01">land redistribution</a>. </p>
<p>Land restitution was largely conceived as a means of addressing the colonial legacy of land dispossession. For its part, land redistribution was mainly designed to create a new class of black commercial farmers who would inherit existing white commercial farms. </p>
<p>Neither has been successfully implemented. Land restitution has been painfully slow, while land redistribution has been criticised for becoming increasingly <a href="http://www.fin24.com/Economy/South-Africa/land-reform-is-captured-20170224">elitist</a>. </p>
<p>To advance land redistribution the government put in place a land acquisition <a href="http://www.plaas.org.za/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/PP%2006.pdf">strategy</a> that acted as an enabler for entrepreneurs who wanted to get into large-scale, commercial agriculture. Once again the poor were left at the margins. </p>
<p>In the early years of democracy, the African National Congress adopted a <a href="http://www.cls.uct.ac.za/usr/lrg/downloads/Factsheet_CommunalTenure_IPILRA_Final_Feb2015.pdf">“do no harm”</a> approach in relation to land tenure in the former homelands. The reasoning was that this land served as a bulwark against poverty. </p>
<p>But that policy appears to have shifted to focus on bolstering the power of local chiefs to oversee land use. The ruling party is leveraging the clout of the chiefs to secure rural constituency <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/07/world/africa/jacob-zuma-under-siege-finds-political-refuge-in-rural-south-africa.html">support</a> during elections.</p>
<p>A sharp historical irony is that the present government is arguably reproducing patterns of land ownership that were originally justified by the <a href="https://www.africaresearchinstitute.org/newsite/publications/briefing-notes/land-law-and-traditional-leadership-in-south-africa/">colonial ideology</a>.</p>
<h2>What must be done</h2>
<p>A range of different models could be adopted in different localities. Recently there’s been a significant rise in the establishment of informal land markets. </p>
<p>This indicates that disregarded rural land has substantial value. But this value is being undermined by a lack of appropriate titling opportunities and land management systems.</p>
<p>What is required is a single and inclusive land reform programme. It must view all land as economically valuable and aim to maximise its potential without undermining people’s social and cultural rights and expressions of identity and belonging. Such a programme should recognise that unused land can be used to address poverty and stimulate growth if it is incorporated into rural value chains.</p>
<p>And to make farming easier and more worthwhile new mechanisms and arrangements must be designed to release productive land currently locked up in customary practices. Although individualist freeholding is an inadequate and often wildly inappropriate alternative to present tenure practices, chiefs and communities should be held accountable if they appear unable to improve their land.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim GB Hart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. He has previously received funding from the Department of Science and Technology, the Department of Rural Development and the Belgian Technical Cooperation.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leslie J. Bank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africa should review its rural development strategy and land reform policy to win the fight against rising poverty.Leslie J. Bank, Deputy Director in Economic Development and Professor of Social Anthropology, Human Sciences Research CouncilTim GB Hart, Senior Research Project Manager and Rural Sociologist, Economic Performance and Development, Human Sciences Research CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/795142017-06-15T13:43:35Z2017-06-15T13:43:35ZYoung South Africans aren’t apathetic, just fed up with formal politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174002/original/file-20170615-3453-tz20z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children marching on the
anniversary of the Soweto uprising.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s youth-led movements such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/feesmustfall-the-poster-child-for-new-forms-of-struggle-in-south-africa-68773?sa=google&sq=fees+must+fall&sr=8">#FeesMustFall</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-student-protests-are-about-much-more-than-just-feesmustfall-49776?sa=google&sq=RhodesMustFall&sr=5">#RhodesMustFall</a> provided contrasting view to perceptions that young people are apathetic and disinterested in the future of their country. But the protests didn’t quite dispel concerns about their lack of political involvement, particularly during elections where there’s been <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/131652/this-is-the-biggest-reason-why-young-south-africans-arent-voting-next-week/">low youth voter turnout</a>. </p>
<p>So we asked young people what they thought about politics. Our research involved focus groups with South Africans aged between 15 and 25 years of age from very different backgrounds. Sampled areas ranged from the rural Eastern Cape, to peri-urban Orange Farm and middle class Kensington, a Johannesburg suburb, amongst others. </p>
<p>Our findings challenge the widely reported perception that young people in South Africa are despondent and don’t care about politics or their role as citizens. What emerged from our research was a picture of young people with strongly defined opinions and knowledge of current affairs. Many said they were involved in some kind of civic activity. </p>
<p>All of the participants expressed a distrust of formal politics. But they also said they have a keen interest in the future of the country and are staking their claim in forging that future, albeit in different and new ways. </p>
<p>What was clear from the research is that young South Africans are engaging with politics very differently to the way in which young people got involved in the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/june-16-soweto-youth-uprising">1976 Soweto uprising</a>. They have found new platforms and ways to share information, make their voices heard and ultimately be politically engaged on the back of growing internet based communication, especially social media. </p>
<p>In 1976 young people taught South Africa that they can’t be ignored. They are a powerful force that can shift the course of a country’s future. Today’s youth are no different. They are interested and engaged. </p>
<h2>Distrust of formal politics</h2>
<p>The people in our focus groups expressed distrust of formal political mechanisms such as voting, demonstrations, and membership of political parties. </p>
<p>Most indicated that they held little faith in the current leadership of the country. They found political leaders to be self-serving and disinterested in them and their communities. While they enjoyed watching parliament in action, this was because it provided entertainment value rather than serious content.</p>
<p>The discussions laid bare why many young people don’t vote. Most expressed alienation from all of South Africa’s political leaders. They said they didn’t know who they could trust or which political party would serve their interests. </p>
<p>As one put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Well, there’s ANC, an old promising party who is no longer keeping its promises, then follows the DA which is led and dominated by white people and you’d think when they are in power they may neglect us and care for whites only and also there is Malema who we think is going to corrupt us, so you just think it’s better not to vote.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>They also said they didn’t see any point in voting given that there seemed to be little relation between what politicians said they would do versus what they actually did. A common sentiment is reflected in these quotes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What is the point in voting? Nothing ever changes anyway. </p>
<p>We are not going to vote either because it’s not going to make a difference.</p>
<p>Personally for me I would vote for a party that I have seen making the biggest difference but everyone is fighting in parliament and they are not going out and making the difference that they are supposed to. And when it comes to voting time then all the municipalities jump up and start to do what they were supposed to do. I think that’s the thing. We don’t know who to vote for because no one is making a big difference.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This distrust and alienation often means that young people opt out of formal political processes such as voting and engagement with political parties. </p>
<p>But this should not be read to infer political disinterest and apathy. On the contrary, young people have found other ways to voice their opinions. </p>
<h2>Different approaches</h2>
<p>Social media is widely used, across the spectrum of youth interviewed, both to voice protest as well as to engage on issues they care about. And many said they have heated face-to-face discussions with their peers about key issues, particularly those affecting their own communities. All these approaches were more appealing, meaningful and accessible than political party membership and voting.</p>
<p>They also held very fervent issues-based views. The focus groups prompted heated debates about xenophobia and the role of foreign nationals in their communities. The participants also felt strongly about common challenges in their communities such as substance abuse, crime and teenage pregnancy. </p>
<p>Our research shows that young people are thinking about key issues in their communities and that they’re getting involved, particularly where issues affect them directly. The difference between this generation and the 1976 generation is that they’re doing so in non-formal ways. </p>
<p>The #feesmustfall campaign is a good example of this. It arose out of an issue that directly affected the lives of many young people. They did not feel that formal democratic processes served them, leading them to engage in a wave of protests driven largely by social media engagements across campuses. </p>
<p>Political parties trying to win the youth vote need to reconnect with where the majority of young people are, more so because young people will continue to form potentially the biggest proportion of the voter base at least until 2050. It’s time the country stopped stereotyping them as apathetic, disinterested and morally bankrupt and started engaging them in ways that are meaningful to them, and connect with the issues they’re interested in. </p>
<p>_This article was co-authored with Lauren Stuart, Thobile Zulu and Senzelwe Mthembu.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This study was funded by the University of Johannesburg's Faculty Research Committee and and University Research Committee as well as through a small grant made by Prof Valerie Möller of the Institute of Social and Economic Research at Rhodes University.</span></em></p>It’s time South Africa stopped stereotyping its young people as being disinterested and morally bankrupt and started engaging them.Lauren Graham, Senior Researcher at the Centre for Social Development for Africa, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792422017-06-12T04:24:18Z2017-06-12T04:24:18ZPuerto Rico votes on statehood: Polls and protests<h2>Will the vote matter?</h2>
<p><strong>Charles R. Venator-Santiago, University of Connecticut</strong></p>
<p>The 2017 Plebiscite for the Immediate Decolonization of Puerto Rico was held on June 11. This is <a href="https://theconversation.com/puerto-rico-votes-on-statehood-fifth-times-the-charm-75975">the fifth vote</a> on the political status of Puerto Rico since the United States annexed the island in 1898.</p>
<p>Only 23 percent of the 2,260,804 registered Puerto Rican voters <a href="http://resultados2017.ceepur.org/Noche_del_Evento_78/index.html#en/default/CONSULTA_DESCOLONIZACION_Resumen.xml">participated</a>. This is in stark contrast to the <a href="http://64.185.222.182/REYDI_Escrutinio12/index.html#en/default/OPCIONES_NO_TERRITORIALES_ISLA.xml">last plebiscite</a> held in 2012 – in which 1,363,854 people, or 78.19 percent of registered voters, cast a ballot.</p>
<p>This year’s results were as follows:</p>
<p>The statehood option received 502,616 votes, or 97.18 percent of the votes cast.</p>
<p>The sovereignty/independence option received 7,779 votes, or 1.5 percent.</p>
<p>The current territorial status option received 6,821 votes, or 1.32 percent.</p>
<p>Moreover, this plebiscite was not authorized or certified by the U.S. Department of Justice or Congress, which throws its impact into question. Although the U.S. DOJ did not offer any reasons for not certifying the plebiscite, the most likely reason is a dispute over the language of the ballot, which was the subject of <a href="http://www.noticel.com/uploads/gallery/documents/fa26731a26c7e725e180e729574ed49e.pdf">a memorandum</a> the DOJ sent to the governor of Puerto Rico in April. </p>
<p>Given the low voter turnout and the failure of the U.S. DOJ to certify the plebiscite, Congress is likely to ignore the outcome of this vote – much as it did in 2012.</p>
<h2>Voters fail to turn out</h2>
<p><strong>Carlos Vargas-Ramos, City University of New York</strong></p>
<p>The overwhelming majority of eligible voters in Puerto Rico chose not to participate. </p>
<p>The June 11 vote brought out the second-lowest turnout rate of all electoral contests <a href="http://209.68.12.238/cgi-bin/municipios.pl">conducted in Puerto Rico since 1967</a>. This is unusual in a political system in which turnout in general elections has ranged between <a href="http://209.68.12.238/cgi-bin/eventos.pl">78 and 89 percent of registered voters</a>. Three of the four political parties that participated in the elections of November 2016 called for a boycott of this plebiscite – which seems to have had a large impact. </p>
<p>Moreover, the low turnout in this plebiscite follows on the heels of another historically low-turnout election in 2016, in which only <a href="http://elecciones2016.ceepur.org/Escrutinio_General_77/index.html#es/default/GOBERNADOR_Resumen.xml">55 percent of voters turned out</a>. The results from these elections are but a reflection of not simply the economic crisis Puerto Rico is facing, but of the political crisis it is facing as well.</p>
<h2>Calls for protest and action</h2>
<p><strong>Jossianna Arroyo, University of Texas Austin</strong></p>
<p>Many who boycotted the vote believed the plebiscite’s cost – more than <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-rico-holds-vote-sunday-statehood-amid-criticism-over-timing-n770496">US$8 million</a> – neglects the needs of <a href="https://www.childtrends.org/left-behind-povertys-toll-on-the-children-of-puerto-rico/">citizens living in precarious economic conditions</a> in Puerto Rico.</p>
<p>After Puerto Rico declared bankruptcy in 2006, the government entered into a process of “debt analysis” and arbitration, directed by a financial control board <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-debt.html">appointed by President Obama</a>. The board recommended, among many measures, to cut US$300 million to $500 million from the Puerto Rican state government budget. That would mean a 30 percent cut to the <a href="https://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/locales/nota/discutenrecortesde120millonesparalaupr-2288254/">administrative budget</a> of the University of Puerto Rico.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/28/thousands-university-students-go-on-strike-in-puerto-rico.html">March 2017</a>, students, faculty and staff went on strike, <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/05/20/529309138/students-at-puerto-ricos-largest-university-continue-strike-amid-shutdown">closing the gates</a> of the 11 public campuses on the island.</p>
<p>Many Puerto Ricans view the government as subservient to this board, some <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/249146-what-a-federal-financial-control-board-means-to-puerto">representatives</a> of which have been connected to Wall Street. <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/249146-what-a-federal-financial-control-board-means-to-puerto">Critics feel</a> these board members may be motivated by a desire to make money, or threaten the island’s sovereignty. While students and faculty protests continue, all campuses are now opened and classes resumed. Still, the fate of the University of Puerto Rico is not clear. Faculty, students and staff are taking matters into their own hands.</p>
<p>On May 24, representatives of the Board of Students met with members of the Financial Control Board to present <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/students-are-now-leading-the-resistance-to-austerity-in-puerto-rico/">a plan to negotiate debt</a> and build a possible consensus for an open and democratic university, which will be able to continue as the top-rated public institution on the island. It was the first time the Financial Control Board met with a collective of citizens. The students believe that the promise of a more democratic future for Puerto Rico will not happen via traditional polls or call to the electorate, but with an active mobilization of all citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some Puerto Ricans voted, but most stayed home amid a looming financial debt crisis and political protests. Will this vote matter?Jossianna Arroyo-Martínez, Chair/Professor of Latin American and Caribbean Literatures and Cultures, Depts. Spanish and Portuguese, African and African Diaspora Studies, The University of Texas at AustinCarlos Vargas-Ramos, Professor of Political Science, City University of New YorkCharles R. Venator-Santiago, Associate Professor of Political Science and El Instituto, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/695872016-11-29T17:33:39Z2016-11-29T17:33:39ZZuma lives to fight another day. But fallout from latest revolt will live on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147966/original/image-20161129-10984-95iwh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's President Jacob Zuma. His supporters within the African National Congress continue to hold sway, for now.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Aaron Ufumeli</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s African National Congress’s <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/officials/national-executive-committee-0">National Executive Committee (NEC)</a> – the body that runs the party between its five-yearly party conferences – has considered a motion to force President Jacob Zuma <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2016/11/28/anc-top-brass-asked-to-pick-sides-in-zuma-no-confidence-motion">to step down</a>. Despite increasing tensions within the party over Zuma’s presidency, this is the first time the NEC has considered acting against him. The motion <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2016-11-29-mantashe-nec-affirmed-zuma-is-president-of-south-africa">failed</a> but the repercussions for the president, the ANC and the country will reverberate for months and years to come. </p>
<p>An unprecedented number of senior NEC members, including six cabinet ministers, risked their jobs to urge Zuma to resign. The cabinet ministers included tourism minister <a href="http://whoswho.co.za/derek-hanekom-4283">Derek Hanekom</a>, health minister <a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/leaders/profile/1475">Aaron Motsoaledi</a>, public works minister <a href="http://www.pa.org.za/person/thembelani-waltermade-nxesi/">Thulas Nxesi</a> and finance minister Pravin Gordhan.</p>
<p>On the other side of the divide were Zuma’s backers which included leaders of three of South Africa’s nine provinces, known as the <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Premier-league-coined-by-those-with-political-agenda-Mahumapelo-20151011">Premier League</a> and a host of cabinet ministers
including the minister of home affairs <a href="http://www.dha.gov.za/index.php/about-us/minister-of-home-affairs">Malusi Gigaba</a> and sports minister <a href="http://whoswho.co.za/fikile-mbalula-3200">Fikile Mbalula</a>.</p>
<p>Zuma’s supporters fought desperately to avoid the motion being put to the vote at the NEC meeting. This suggests they realised that, for the first time, they weren’t guaranteed a majority. The slimness of the pro-Zuma faction was highlighted by the fact that the NEC meeting was <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/anc-meeting-extended-zumas-fate-uncertain-2093875">extended from two to three days</a> to enable more Zuma supporters – absent when it started – <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/zuma-survives-coup-2094224">to fly in to support him</a>. </p>
<p>The debate at the NEC was the latest revolt against Zuma’s leadership. In the governing <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/kids/tripartite-alliance">tripartite alliance</a> the <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2015-06-25-sacp-our-zuma-mistake">South African Communist Party</a> and some Congress of South African Trade Unions <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/nehawu-calls-on-zuma-to-resign-20161101">affiliates</a> have both openly criticised him. All backed Zuma for president in 2008. Within the ANC’s wider circle of influence only its Youth League and Women’s League remain <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2016/09/05/ANCYL-ANCWL-and-MKMVA-rally-behind-Zuma">Zuma allies</a>. </p>
<h2>Parallels with Mbeki’s recall</h2>
<p>The attempts to oust Zuma are reminiscent of <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2008-09-20-anc-recalls-mbeki">the sacking of then President President Thabo Mbeki in 2008</a>. The difference is that Mbeki was by then not the president of the ANC. He had been outvoted – and Zuma voted in – at the ANC’s national conference in 2007. A year later the NEC took a decision to recall him as president of the country. </p>
<p>By a strange twist, the NEC has the power to remove the president of the country. But it does not have the power to remove the president of the party.</p>
<p>The only way in which the ANC could remove Zuma would be at an elective conference. These are held every five years. The next one is due at the end of 2017 when Zuma’s term as president of the ANC ends anyway. For Zuma to be removed before that time the elective conference would need to be rescheduled to an earlier date. Though some ANC members are calling for this, it’s highly unlikely to happen.</p>
<p>There are a number of other possible routes the ANC could take to remove Zuma. One is that the party’s disciplinary committee finds him guilty of bringing the ANC into disrepute, or similar charges. This would give it grounds to act against him. </p>
<p>A further possibility is that a motion of no confidence is tabled against Zuma in parliament. This has already happened several times, and has been defeated on each occasion because of the ANC’s overwhelming majority in the house. A no confidence vote would only succeed if the ANC parliamentary caucus took the unprecedented step of walking out when the vote came to the floor.</p>
<p>The possibility that Zuma is removed through the courts is extremely remote. He has, for example, given every indication <a href="http://city-press.news24.com/News/zuma-to-take-state-capture-report-on-review-20161125">that he will appeal</a> against remedial action of a judicial commission of inquiry recommended by the former Public Protector in a report on state capture. </p>
<p>Clearly, he will appeal against an unfavourable decision in the High Court to the Supreme Court of Appeal, and then to the Constitutional Court. Judging by past litigation, this will probably take six months. The judicial commission itself will take six months or a year to complete its findings, which Zuma will clearly again take on judicial review. All this will extend beyond the ANC December 2017 conference where Zuma’s successor will be elected.</p>
<p>The reality of power is that removing the national leader of any political party inevitably leads to a long drawn-out fight, and is exceptionally difficult. In the case of Britain’s Conservative Party, it was their parliamentary caucus which removed <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/8094268/Margaret-Thatcher-obituary-Ousted-from-Downing-Street-and-the-leadership.html">Margaret Thatcher from office</a>. </p>
<h2>Bad for the party, a boon for the opposition</h2>
<p>The more drawn-out the struggle to get rid of the scandal-prone Zuma, the worse affected the ANC will be. And the better it will be for opposition parties.</p>
<p>Election campaigners of the main opposition Democratic Alliance openly regard Zuma’s continued presidency as the gift that keeps on giving. The longer he clings to power as state president and ANC president, the more ANC voters will abstain in 2019. And the more DA voters can be mobilised by outrage to go to their polling station.</p>
<p>The DA already stands a good chance of wresting control of Gauteng Province, South Africa economic powerhouse, from the ANC in 2019. The DA is currently <a href="https://theconversation.com/tide-begins-to-turn-against-south-africas-president-and-his-supporters-68096">redeploying a team</a> of its Cape Town headquarter staff to Johannesburg to wage a two-year election campaign against the ANC.</p>
<h2>Beyond the now</h2>
<p>Personally, Zuma has less to fear from retirement than most seem to realise. A retired South African president automatically <a href="http://www.news24.com/World/News/All-the-presidents-expenses-20090204">receives a pension equal to 100% of their salary</a>. And there’s a strong likelihood that any ANC-led government would <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-resist-an-amnesty-deal-for-zuma-68101">grant him amnesty</a> against possible prosecution for corruption or other possible charges.</p>
<p>The biggest consequence of Zuma’s removal would be that his cronies and agents in state departments and parastatals would be purged. This would mean the end of Zuma’s reign, heralding a new era of honest government and better use of taxpayers’ money.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the ANC, but writes this in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>A revolt within the African National Congress against South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma has reached new heights. He has survived, but the repercussions will be felt for some time to come.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.