tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/voting-737/articlesVoting – The Conversation2024-03-19T13:09:24Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256892024-03-19T13:09:24Z2024-03-19T13:09:24ZSouth Africa’s election management body has done a good job for 30 years: here’s why<p>More than in previous elections, <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/">South Africa’s Electoral Commission</a> (IEC) will be tested to the hilt in this year’s national and provincial elections <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/">on 29 May</a>. For the first time in 30 years, the electoral majority of the ruling <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">African National Congress</a> (ANC) is <a href="https://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/news/new-survey-shows-voters-punishing-anc-over-governance-and-foreign-policy/">in jeopardy</a>. This makes the upcoming poll the most consequential one <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-african-general-elections-1994">since 1994</a>, when the country commenced with its democratisation. </p>
<p>The electoral commission’s <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/about-us/what-we-do/">tasks</a> are to enforce the rules of the electoral game and the parties’ ethical conduct. It must also be the dispute resolution champion and ensure that the election is free and fair. These are the primary contributions the commission can make towards promoting and consolidating electoral democracy. </p>
<p>The circumstances of this year’s elections will put additional pressure on the IEC to be a fair umpire of this contest. It thus can’t afford to be <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/parliament-welcomes-dismissal-iec-staff-member-responsible-leaks-12-mar-2024">mired in controversy</a>. </p>
<p>The commission has to implement an amended but <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/elections/whats-new-in-the-2024-elections-electoral-amendment-act">interim electoral system</a> which allows independents to stand for the first time, but which is not yet well understood by the public.</p>
<p>In my view as a political scientist who has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=oietezsAAAAJ&hl=en">studied</a> South African politics, elections, conflict resolution and comparative democratisation over the past three decades, the IEC’S track record is a sound reason to expect it to perform well in this year’s election.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2023.2269897">recent paper</a>, I set out how the IEC has developed a reputation as an effective electoral management body which maintains a high level of institutional independence and efficiency. The operational quality of elections under its jurisdiction is seldom challenged. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-has-changed-its-electoral-law-but-a-much-more-serious-overhaul-is-needed-204820">South Africa has changed its electoral law, but a much more serious overhaul is needed</a>
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<p>The electoral commission’s institutional independence is a very important factor. The fact that the elections in South Africa have always been declared free and fair, and by the international community, is another factor. The fact that public opinion in South Africa has been generally satisfied with the management of elections for the past 30 years is a critical condition for the quality of democracy to be strengthened.</p>
<h2>Democracy and institutional independence</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2023.2269897">research article</a> sets out how South Africa’s electoral body has cultivated an institutional independence that is envied by many other election commissions. Its composition contributes much to this independence. The commission’s five members are not allowed to have a prominent party-political profile. This contrasts with other electoral commissions, such as the one in Angola, which <a href="https://www.sadc.int/sites/default/files/2022-08/Final%20Preliminary%20Statement_Angola%20SEOM_26082022.pdf">consist primarily of party representatives</a>.</p>
<p>Candidates for the South African commission positions are interviewed in public by a panel chaired by the <a href="https://www.judiciary.org.za/">chief justice</a>, and consisting of the <a href="https://www.pprotect.org/">public protector</a> and two members of the <a href="https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/government/iec-chairperson-mashininis-9-march-2022/">six other commissions set up in terms of chapter 9 of the constitution</a>. The National Assembly approves the short list, which is then submitted to the president for final appointment. The National Assembly is also the only body that can <a href="https://www.ecfsadc.org/members/south-africa-independent-electoral-commission/">remove an IEC commissioner from office</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-politicians-must-guard-against-killer-narratives-62562">South Africa's politicians must guard against killer narratives</a>
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<p>As an indication of its independence, the commission <a href="https://www.ecfsadc.org/members/south-africa-independent-electoral-commission/">accounts</a> to the National Assembly (public representatives) for all its actions and responsibilities, not to the cabinet. It must submit an <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/Downloads/Documents-Library-Annual-Reports-IEC">annual report</a> to parliament’s multiparty portfolio committee on home affairs – not to a minister or government institution. Its budget is presented to parliament by the Department of Home Affairs but is ring-fenced for its exclusive use. In this respect the independence of electoral management is entrenched.</p>
<p>The IEC’s public accountability is enhanced by the way international and domestic observer missions scrutinise elections and the commission’s conduct. In the past, the <a href="https://www.sadc.int/latest-news/sadc-election-observation-mission-releases-its-preliminary-statement-2019-national-and">Southern African Development Community</a> , the <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/38696-doc-report_of_the_african_union_election_observation_mission_to_the_08_may_2019_national_and_provincial_elections_in_the_republic_of_south_africa.pdf">African Union</a>, the <a href="https://thecommonwealth.org/news/commonwealth-releases-observer-report-south-africa-elections">Commonwealth</a>, the <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/index.php/site/q/03lv02039/04lv02128/05lv02130.htm">European Union</a> and even the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00344899438439049">United Nations</a> have deployed <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/Elections-And-Results/Observers">observer teams</a> in South Africa. Their mandate was to observe all the components of an election, including the commission’s performance. Their verdicts determine whether an election is regarded as free and fair. The IEC has opened applications to <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/Elections-And-Results/Observers">observe the 2024 election</a>.</p>
<h2>Free and fair elections as a democratic yardstick</h2>
<p>The IEC can be given credit for institutionalising important mechanisms to ensure that elections are free and fair. One of them is the <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/Parties-And-Candidates/Party-Liaison-Committees">party liaison committees</a> at different levels. They are a novel South African invention which serves as a communication channel between the electoral commission and all participating parties. It’s also a dispute resolution mechanism to identify problems at an early stage and resolve them. Many potentially debilitating problems have been identified and resolved by them over the years. Numerous electoral commissions have visited South Africa to <a href="https://liberia.ec-undp-electoralassistance.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2020/03/3.-NEC_Study-Tour_South-Africa_2-5-Sep-2019.pdf">learn about these committees</a>.</p>
<p>The South African electoral dispensation expects the IEC to create an environment conducive to free and fair elections. At the end of the elections it has the responsibility to declare whether they were <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/About-Us/News/Final-results-of-2021-Municipal-Elections-Address-by-Chairperson-Glen-Mashinini/">indeed free and fair</a>.</p>
<p>As major players in elections, electoral management bodies are often compromised in disputes and cannot, therefore, be the referees of whether elections are free and fair. That’s why in many other countries, this judgment is made by their supreme court and not by the commissions themselves. </p>
<h2>The test of public opinion</h2>
<p>The main test of the IEC’s contribution towards democracy is public opinion. The Human Sciences Research Council (<a href="https://hsrc.ac.za/">HSRC</a>) in South Africa conducts <a href="https://hsrc.ac.za/news/general/most-voters-satisfied-following-elections-survey-finds/">surveys</a> before and after every election to determine the public’s opinion on the elections, the IEC and its performance, and their views on some democratic indicators. </p>
<p>The surveys show that, during the period 2013-2018, the highest democratic ideal in the public’s mind was “free and fair elections” followed by “freedom of expression”. Trust in “free and fair elections” showed the greatest decline <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2023.2269897">between 2013 and 2021</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-fed-up-with-their-prospects-and-their-democracy-according-to-latest-social-attitudes-survey-204566">South Africans are fed up with their prospects, and their democracy, according to latest social attitudes survey</a>
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<p>The HSRC researchers interpreted these trends as being influenced by declining trust in public institutions and dissatisfaction with democratic performance in general. Trust in the IEC <a href="https://hsrc.ac.za/news/capable-and-ethical-state/hsrc-election-survey-voters-positive-but-turnout-reflects-political-disillusionment/">remained very high</a>.</p>
<h2>An uncontroversial electoral body</h2>
<p>Constitutional institutions like the IEC cannot function in isolation. The social dynamics of democracy inevitably influence its own reputation for better or for worse.</p>
<p>Elections – especially managing the counting of ballots and announcing the results – can be very controversial. They have disrupted the political landscape in many countries. South Africa’s IEC has so far avoided such instability and managed to protect the integrity of the country’s elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225689/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dirk Kotze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Independent Electoral Commission cannot afford to put a foot wrong in the country’s most important election since democracy in 1994, on 29 May.Dirk Kotze, Professor in Political Science, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229672024-03-11T12:24:32Z2024-03-11T12:24:32ZAncient Rome successfully fought against voter intimidation − a political story told on a coin that resonates today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576049/original/file-20240215-17705-r7jti2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy was enshrined in Roman currency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This silver denarius, minted <a href="https://numismatics.org/crro/id/rrc-292.1">over 2,000 years ago</a>, is hardly the most attractive Roman coin. And yet, the coin is vital evidence for the early stages of a political struggle that culminated in Caesar’s assassination and the fall of the Roman Republic.</p>
<p>I first encountered this coin while <a href="https://history.iastate.edu/directory/david-hollander/">studying Roman history</a> in graduate school. Its unusual design gave me pause – this one depicted figures walking across a narrow bridge and dropping something into a box. I moved on after learning it depicted voting, reasoning that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah06338">Roman mint officials</a> occasionally made idiosyncratic choices.</p>
<p>But as voting access evolves in the U.S., the political importance of this centuries-old coin seems more compelling. It turns out that efforts to regulate voting access go way back.</p>
<h2>Roman voting</h2>
<p>Voting was a core feature of the Roman Republic and a <a href="https://archive.org/details/worldofcitizenin0000nico">regular activity for politically active citizens</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah18141">Men, and only men</a>, could vote in multiple elections and legislative assemblies each year. So why would P. Licinius Nerva, the official responsible for this coin, choose to depict such a banal activity? </p>
<p>The answer lies in voting procedures that sometimes heavily favored elites.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Panoramic view of ancient Roman columns and buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Roman Forum was a common site of political activities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forum_romanum_6k_(5760x2097).jpg">BeBo86/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>In the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah20037.pub2">comitia centuriata</a>, the assembly that elected Rome’s chief magistrates, each citizen was a member of a voting unit based on wealth. Unit members voted to decide which candidates they collectively supported, like U.S. presidential elections where it’s not the popular vote but the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-electoral-college-exist-and-how-does-it-work-5-essential-reads-149502">number of Electoral College votes</a> that determines the winner. </p>
<p>The wealthiest Romans controlled more than half of the voting units in this assembly. The poorest citizens had just one voting unit; since they voted last, and only during uncertain outcomes, they might not vote at all. </p>
<p>Furthermore, citizens voted orally and openly. Elites could directly observe and potentially intimidate poorer voters.</p>
<h2>Regulating Roman electioneering</h2>
<p>That all began to change in 139 BCE when the Roman politician <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.35">Aulus Gabinius passed a law</a> mandating written ballots for elections. Two further laws, <a href="https://archive.org/details/romanvotingassem0000tayl">both passed in the 130s</a>, extended the use of written ballots to legislative voting and most trial juries.</p>
<p>These written ballots made it more difficult for elites to influence voting but not impossible. Each unit formed its own line leading to a bridge where voters received ballots to mark and <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/2027/heb01565.0001.001">place in a basket</a>. Elites could station themselves or their allies on the bridge to encourage people to vote the “right” way.</p>
<p>The reverse of Nerva’s coin depicts the reception and deposit of the ballot, the first and last moments of a voter’s time on the bridge. The absence of nonvoter figures on the coin, apart from a poll worker, is key to understanding its message.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bronzed silver coin with one figure receiving a ballot from another figure while another deposits a ballot in a box" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Reverse of a Roman silver coin minted by P. Nerva, circa 113 BCE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span>
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<p>In 119 BCE, a young politician named Gaius Marius <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:greekLit:tlg0007.tlg031.perseus-eng1:4.2">passed a law</a> that <a href="https://www.loebclassics.com/view/marcus_tullius_cicero-de_legibus/1928/pb_LCL213.505.xml">narrowed voting bridge widths</a>, allowing voters to mark their ballots without elites looking over their shoulders. Nerva’s coin, minted six or seven years later, almost certainly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511584015">refers back to this law</a>. By showing only voters on the bridge, Nerva was celebrating an important voting rights victory and announcing his allegiance to Marius.</p>
<p>The aristocrats never managed to repeal the voting laws and were <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.33">still grumbling about them</a> even as the Republic collapsed.</p>
<p>The long Roman struggle over voting procedures provides a useful and perhaps even comforting reminder. <a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/">Changing state voting laws</a> and <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/">election lawsuits</a> are nothing new. The fight over voter access to the ballot is an inevitable side effect of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David B. Hollander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fighting for voter access is an inevitable part of any democracy, from ancient Rome to the US today. Roman legislators were able to thwart elite political sway by introducing written ballots.David B. Hollander, Professor of History, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245992024-02-28T14:12:22Z2024-02-28T14:12:22ZMore than 100K Michigan voters pick ‘uncommitted’ over Biden − does that matter for November?<p>Joe Biden won the 2024 Michigan Democratic primary, but <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-election-michigan-2024-6e0b9fc18773e975fdfd23f7287ed615">“uncommitted” ran a spirited campaign</a>. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/27/us/elections/results-michigan-democratic-presidential-primary.html">100,000 Michiganders voted “uncommitted”</a> in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, 13% of the Democratic electorate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.listentomichigan.com/">Listen to Michigan</a> organized the uncommitted campaign in Michigan, promoting it as a way to express dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s public stance in support of <a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-siege-has-placed-gazans-at-risk-of-starvation-prewar-policies-made-them-vulnerable-in-the-first-place-222657">Israel’s actions in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza</a>.</p>
<p>The group also set a goal of securing more uncommitted votes than the 11,000-vote margin by which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president">Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016</a>. The total was nearly 10 times that number.</p>
<p>Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 154,181 votes.</p>
<p>While there were no exit polls conducted with Michigan primary voters, preelection polling just before the primary showed Biden’s weakness among potential <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/27/1234106750/uncommitted-voters-michigan-primary-arab-muslim-dearborn-hamtramck-detroit">young voters as well as Arab Americans</a>.</p>
<p>Michigan has the largest Arab, Muslim and Palestinian population in the United States, currently numbering <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/arab-population-by-state">more than 200,000</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-dearborn-michigan-the-first-arab-american-majority-city-in-the-us-216700">A brief history of Dearborn, Michigan – the first Arab-American majority city in the US</a>
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<p>More than half of the population of Dearborn, Michigan, is Arab, as is its mayor; it is home to <a href="https://theconversation.com/islams-call-to-prayer-is-ringing-out-in-more-us-cities-affirming-a-long-and-growing-presence-of-muslims-in-america-205555">the largest mosque in the United States</a>. One of the leaders of the uncommitted movement is U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib from the 12th District, the first Palestinian American woman elected to Congress.</p>
<p>At time of publication, with 98% of precincts reporting a day after the election, <a href="https://cityofdearborn.org/documents/city-departments/city-clerk/elections/election-results/2024-election-results/8310-february-27-2024-primary-election-unofficial-results-as-of-11-30-p-m/file">vote tallies from Dearborn</a>, the city with the highest percentage of Arab American voters in the state, show “uncommitted” leading there – 6,290 votes to President Biden’s 4,517. </p>
<p>It’s not clear that all of the uncommitted voters were part of the protest. In primaries, some voters will vote uncommitted if they have not yet made their choice or don’t want to disclose that choice for any number of reasons. In 2020, 19,106 Democratic voters in Michigan <a href="https://www.wxyz.com/news/national-politics/america-votes/heres-how-many-people-voted-uncommitted-in-past-michigan-presidential-primaries">selected uncommitted, while 21,601 did so in 2016</a> – even though no protest was attached to those decisions.</p>
<p>What makes the 2024 primaries different from previous contests is that uncommitted voters are being reported in exit polls and by election officials because that designation actually appears on the ballot in some states. </p>
<p>Besides Michigan, which added uncommitted to its primary ballots in 2012, there are uncommitted lines on the ballots in New Hampshire, North Carolina and South Carolina; Florida has a “no preference” line. In Oregon and <a href="https://crosscut.com/politics/2024/02/faq-washingtons-march-12-presidential-primary">Washington</a>, citizens will be able to vote for an uncommitted delegate to the convention. </p>
<p>Selecting uncommitted is a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/michigan-democrats-organizers-urge-uncommitted-vote-feb-27-primary-2024-02-06/">way for voters to express dissatisfaction</a> with the candidates whose names appear on the ballot while still participating in the democratic act of voting. </p>
<p>In my view, this form of peaceful protest is an essential element of American democracy and more demonstrative than staying home from the polls. </p>
<p>It is not an option for the fall general election, where the only alternative to a Biden vote for Democrats will be to stay home or vote for Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Given his past <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/28/politics/text-of-trump-executive-order-nation-ban-refugees/index.html">record</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/17/trump-muslim-ban-gaza-refugees">proposals</a> to exclude Arabs from immigration to the United States, I don’t believe that will be a realistic alternative for many of Michigan’s uncommitted voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224599/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Traugott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Organizers of the protest had set a goal of 11,000 uncommitted votes to show dissatisfaction with Biden’s support of Israel in the Israel-Hamas war.Michael Traugott, Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233922024-02-15T15:58:50Z2024-02-15T15:58:50ZDisinformation threatens global elections – here’s how to fight back<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575950/original/file-20240215-22-at0x1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=180%2C90%2C5826%2C3890&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some Republicans still believe the 2020 election was "stolen" from Donald Trump.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/helena-montana-nov-7-2020-protesters-1849449790">Lyonstock/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With over half the world’s population heading to the polls in 2024, disinformation season is upon us — and the warnings are dire. The World Economic Forum <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf">declared</a> misinformation a top societal threat over the next two years and major news organisations <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/disinformation-unprecedented-threat-2024-election-rcna134290">caution</a> that disinformation poses an unprecedented threat to democracies worldwide. </p>
<p>Yet, some scholars and pundits have <a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-is-often-blamed-for-swaying-elections-the-research-says-something-else-221579">questioned</a> whether disinformation can really sway election outcomes. Others think concern over disinformation is just a <a href="https://undark.org/2023/10/26/opinion-misinformation-moral-panic/">moral panic</a> or merely a <a href="https://iai.tv/articles/misinformation-is-the-symptom-not-the-disease-daniel-walliams-auid-2690">symptom</a> rather than the cause of our societal ills. Pollster Nate Silver even thinks that misinformation “<a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1745556135157899389">isn’t a coherent concept</a>”.</p>
<p>But we argue the evidence tells a different story.</p>
<p>A 2023 study showed that the vast majority of academic <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/a-survey-of-expert-views-on-misinformation-definitions-determinants-solutions-and-future-of-the-field/">experts</a> are in agreement about how to define misinformation (namely as false and misleading content) and what this looks like (for example lies, conspiracy theories and pseudoscience). Although the study didn’t cover disinformation, such experts generally agree that this can be defined as intentional misinformation.</p>
<p>A recent paper <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44271-023-00054-5">clarified</a> that misinformation can both be a symptom and the disease. In 2022, nearly 70% of Republicans still <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jun/14/most-republicans-falsely-believe-trumps-stolen-ele/">endorsed</a> the false conspiracy theory that the 2020 US presidential election was “stolen” from Donald Trump. If Trump had never floated this theory, how would millions of people have possibly acquired these beliefs?</p>
<p>Moreover, although it is clear that people do not always act on dangerous beliefs, the January 6 US Capitol riots, incited by false claims, serve as an important reminder that a <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jun/30/misinformation-and-jan-6-insurrection-when-patriot/">misinformed</a> crowd can disrupt and undermine democracy. </p>
<p>Given that nearly 25% of elections are decided by a margin of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1419828112">under 3%</a>, mis- and disinformation can have important influence. One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379418303019">study</a> found that among previous Barack Obama voters who did not buy into any fake news about Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential election, 89% voted for Clinton. By contrast, among prior Obama voters who believed at least two fake headlines about Clinton, only 17% voted for her. </p>
<p>While this doesn’t necessarily prove that the misinformation caused the voting behaviour, we do know that <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/revealed-trump-campaign-strategy-to-deter-millions-of-black-americans-from-voting-in-2016">millions</a> of black voters were targeted with misleading ads discrediting Clinton in key swing states ahead of the election. </p>
<p>Research has shown that such micro-targeting of specific audiences based on
variables such as their personality not only influences <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1710966114">decision-making</a> but also impacts <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0093650220961965">voting intentions</a>. A recent <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae035/7591134">paper</a> illustrated how large language models can be deployed to craft micro-targeted ads at scale, estimating that for every 100,000 individuals targeted, at least several thousand can be persuaded.</p>
<p>We also know that not only are people bad at <a href="https://www.cell.com/iscience/pdf/S2589-0042(21)01335-3.pdf">discerning</a> deepfakes (AI generated images of fake events) from genuine content, studies find that deepfakes do influence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1940161220944364">political</a> attitudes among a small target group. </p>
<p>There are more indirect consequences of disinformation too, such as eroding public <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1461444820943878">trust</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2115900119">participation</a> in elections.</p>
<p>Other than hiding under our beds and worrying, what can we do to protect ourselves?</p>
<h2>The power of prebunking</h2>
<p>Many efforts have focused on fact-checking and debunking false beliefs. In contrast, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10463283.2021.1876983">“prebunking”</a> is a new way to prevent false beliefs from forming in the first place. Such “inoculation” involves warning people not to fall for a false narrative or propaganda tactic, together with an explanation as to why. </p>
<p>Misinforming rhetoric has clear <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09579265221076609">markers</a>, such as scapegoating or use of false dichotomies (there are many others), that people can learn to identify. Like a medical vaccine, the prebunk exposes the recipient to a “weakened dose” of the infectious agent (the disinformation) and refutes it in a way that confers protection. </p>
<p>For example, we created an online <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy8vzm/homeland-security-funded-this-game-about-destabilizing-a-small-us-town">game</a> for the Department of Homeland Security to empower Americans to spot foreign influence techniques during the 2020 presidential election. The weakened dose? <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-cybersecurity-agency-uses-pineapple-pizza-demonstrate-vulnerability-foreign-n1035296">Pineapple pizza</a>.</p>
<p>How could pineapple pizza possibly be the way to tackle misinformation? It shows how bad-faith actors can take an innocuous issue such as whether or not to put pineapple on pizza, and use this to try to start a culture war. They might claim it’s offensive to Italians or urge Americans not to let anybody restrict their pizza-topping freedom.</p>
<p>They can then buy bots to amplify the issue on both sides, disrupt debate – and sow chaos. Our <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/breaking-harmony-square-a-game-that-inoculates-against-political-misinformation/">results</a> showed that people improved in their ability to recognise these tactics after playing our inoculation game. </p>
<p>In 2020, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/28/1132021770/false-information-is-everywhere-pre-bunking-tries-to-head-it-off-early">Twitter</a> identified false election tropes as potential “vectors of misinformation” and sent out prebunks to millions of US users warning them of fraudulent claims, such as that voting by mail is not safe. </p>
<p>These prebunks armed people with a fact — that experts agree that voting by mail is reliable — and it worked insofar as the prebunks inspired confidence in the election process and motivated users to seek out more factual information. Other social media companies, such as <a href="https://medium.com/jigsaw/prebunking-to-build-defenses-against-online-manipulation-tactics-in-germany-a1dbfbc67a1a">Google</a> and <a href="https://sustainability.fb.com/blog/2022/10/24/climate-science-literacy-initiative/">Meta</a> have followed suit across a range of issues. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/5/2293/files/2024/02/voter-fraud-corrections-e163369556a2d7a4.pdf">paper</a> tested inoculation against false claims about the election process in the US and Brazil. Not only did it found that prebunking worked better than traditional debunking, but that the inoculation improved discernment between true and false claims, effectively reduced election fraud beliefs and improved confidence in the integrity of the upcoming 2024 elections. </p>
<p>In short, inoculation is a <a href="https://futurefreespeech.org/background-report-empowering-audiences-against-misinformation-through-prebunking/">free speech</a>-empowering intervention that can work on a global scale. When Russia was looking for a pretext to invade Ukraine, US president Joe Biden used this approach to “<a href="https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2022/3/2/22955870/opinion-how-the-white-house-prebunked-putins-lies-disinformation-joe-biden-donald-trump-russia">inoculate</a>” the world against Putin’s plan to stage and film a fabricated Ukrainian atrocity, complete with actors, a script and a movie crew. Biden declassified the intelligence and exposed the plot.</p>
<p>In effect, he warned the world not to fall for fake videos with actors pretending to be Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil. Forewarned, the international community was <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/02/26/deploying-reality-against-putin">unlikely</a> to fall for it. Russia found another pretext to invade, of course, but the point remains: forewarned is forearmed.</p>
<p>But we need not rely on government or tech firms to build <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/mental-immunity-infectious-ideas-mind-parasites-and-the-search-for-a-better-way-to-think-andy-norman?variant=39295503597646">mental immunity</a>. We can all <a href="https://interventions.withgoogle.com/static/pdf/A_Practical_Guide_to_Prebunking_Misinformation.pdf">learn</a> how to spot misinformation by studying the markers accompanying misleading rhetoric.</p>
<p>Remember that polio was a highly infectious disease that was eradicated through vaccination and herd immunity. Our challenge now is to build herd immunity to the tricks of disinformers and propagandists. </p>
<p>The future of our democracy may depend on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sander van der Linden consults for or receives funding from the UK Government's Cabinet Office, The U.S. State Department, the American Psychological Association, the US Center for Disease Control, the European Commission, the Templeton World Charity Foundation, the United Nations, the World Health Organization, Google, and Meta. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee McIntyre advises the UK Government on how to fight disinformation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Lewandowsky receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC Advanced Grant 101020961 PRODEMINFO), the
Humboldt Foundation through a research award, the Volkswagen Foundation (grant ``Reclaiming individual autonomy and democratic discourse online: How to rebalance human and algorithmic decision making''), and the European Commission (Horizon 2020 grants 964728 JITSUVAX and 101094752 SoMe4Dem). He also receives funding from Jigsaw (a technology incubator created by Google) and from UK Research and Innovation (through EU Horizon replacement funding grant number 10049415). He collaborates with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre.</span></em></p>Scientists estimate that for every 100,000 people targeted with specific political ads, several thousand can be persuaded.Sander van der Linden, Professor of Social Psychology in Society, University of CambridgeLee McIntyre, Research Fellow, Center for Philosophy and History of Science, Boston UniversityStephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226042024-02-13T10:48:22Z2024-02-13T10:48:22Z200 million voters, 820,000 polling stations and 10,000 candidates: Indonesia’s massive election, by the numbers<p>Indonesians are going to the polls to elect a new president on Wednesday. There are three candidates running, alongside their vice presidential candidates.</p>
<p>According to opinion polls, the favourite is <a href="https://theconversation.com/cute-grandpa-or-authoritarian-in-waiting-who-is-prabowo-subianto-the-favourite-to-win-indonesias-presidential-election-221858">Prabowo Subianto</a>, leader of the Greater Indonesia Party (Gerindra), a populist and nationalist party he founded in 2008. A former army general, Prabowo has already stood unsuccessfully for president twice before. He is also the defence minister in the cabinet of the current president, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. </p>
<p>The other contenders are Ganjar Pranowo, a former governor of the large province of Central Java and a member of Indonesia’s biggest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), and Anies Basweden, an independent candidate who was governor of the city of Jakarta.</p>
<p>Prabowo is the frontrunner, but it’s unclear whether he will win an absolute majority of votes in the first round. If he fails to win 50.1% of the vote, there will be a runoff election between the two leading candidates in June.</p>
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<h2>By the numbers</h2>
<p>Voters are also casting votes in parliamentary elections, <a href="https://www.ifes.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/2024_Elections_FAQ_Final.pdf">which include</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>580 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR), with more than 9,900 candidates </p></li>
<li><p>152 seats in the Regional Representative Council (DPD), designed to represent the regions, with around 670 candidates</p></li>
<li><p>and local parliaments in each of the 38 provinces and 416 districts.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In total, there are over 2,700 separate electoral contests being held for around 20,500 seats. All are the responsibility of Indonesia’s independent election commission (the Komisi Pemilihan Umum, or simply KPU) to administer impartially and efficiently.</p>
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<hr>
<h2>Logistical nightmare</h2>
<p>Indonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy after India and the United States – and all three are holding elections this year. But since Indonesia is holding five separate polls on one day, it is often touted as the largest and most complex <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-will-hold-the-worlds-biggest-single-day-election-here-is-what-you-need-to-know-208673">single-day election</a> in the world.</p>
<p>Indonesia is an archipelago with about 6,000 inhabited islands, some of them remote and with limited infrastructure. The distance from Aceh in the west to Papua in the east is some 5,100 kilometres (3,200 miles), wider than the continental US. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cute-grandpa-or-authoritarian-in-waiting-who-is-prabowo-subianto-the-favourite-to-win-indonesias-presidential-election-221858">Cute grandpa or authoritarian in waiting: who is Prabowo Subianto, the favourite to win Indonesia's presidential election?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is a massive undertaking to organise an election of this size, from procuring polling station equipment to managing a huge election staff to ensuring the public trusts the integrity and fairness of the vote. The election commission does a remarkable job making sure the vote happens on time and the ballot counting occurs quickly and without tampering.</p>
<p>To get an idea of the size of the task facing the KPU, let’s look at the presidential election first.</p>
<p>There are 204 million registered voters in Indonesia, so the KPU has to print and distribute this many ballots across the country for the presidential vote alone, with a few million extra in case polling stations run short.</p>
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<p>The commission is then required to deliver, count and return the ballots to over <a href="https://www.ifes.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/2024_Elections_FAQ_Final.pdf">820,000 domestic polling stations</a>, in addition to more than 3,000 stations overseas. Since there may be a second-round, runoff election, the KPU must be ready to repeat the whole exercise in a few months. This time it would need a different set of ballot papers showing the two final candidates.</p>
<p>But things get really complicated when it comes to the contests for Indonesia’s various national and regional parliaments, even though these get relatively little attention compared to the presidential poll.</p>
<p>The presidential election involves a simple majority count of three candidates. But the national and regional parliaments are conducted through a proportional representation system, the same used in countries like Germany and New Zealand, and for the Australian Senate. Under this system, parties win seats in proportion to the votes they receive. For example, a party winning 20% of the votes will take up around 20% of the seats in the chamber. </p>
<p>Adding to the complexity, voters in Indonesia are not compelled to vote just for a party, but can choose an individual candidate within a party’s list. So, when voters arrive at the polling station, they are presented with a huge ballot paper for the national parliament alone, which lists, on average, 118 candidates. </p>
<p>And they must also make choices for three other chambers – in addition to the presidential vote.</p>
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<h2>An unglamorous, but remarkable democratic achievement</h2>
<p>So, how well has Indonesia done in this massive task of making democratic elections work? </p>
<p>After languishing under a dictatorship and rigged elections for four decades under the rule of Soeharto, the country has done remarkably well since embracing democracy in the late 1990s.</p>
<p>In fact, Indonesia rarely receives recognition for this transformation. In a world where democracy seems increasingly under pressure, Indonesia has managed five peaceful and democratic transfers of power. In comparison to neighbouring states in Southeast Asia, where <a href="https://www.newmandala.org/civil-society-and-southeast-asias-authoritarian-turn/">one-party dominance</a> is widespread or democratic progress has been crushed under <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya">military coups</a>, Indonesia stands out as a bastion of democratic politics.</p>
<p>None of this is to say that Indonesia’s system is flawless. In fact, domestic and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00074918.2018.1549918?casa_token=UxIulMCigoYAAAAA:6CZA0rTwlhWHlfUU6Y_sxAW1P3-ClmyKNUOlPfArJjAjAddU4jwBgltG41xOeLBi44jbLeISJ6m46B4">international observers</a> have increasingly noted the reemergence of authoritarian instincts among the country’s leaders and the rise of <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/10/26/jokowi-is-building-a-political-dynasty">dynastic politics</a> in which incumbents engineer the elections of family members. </p>
<p>And this not only applies to prominent figures from the Soeharto days, such as the leading presidential contender Prabowo. Jokowi has also been <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-joko-widodo-paving-the-way-for-a-political-dynasty-in-indonesia-219499">accused</a> of paving the way for a political dynasty by using his son’s candidacy to ensure he’ll have influence in a Prabowo presidential administration.</p>
<p>But when it comes to the electoral contest itself, Indonesia’s election commission, while not perfect, has delivered reliable and trustworthy outcomes. </p>
<p>The administration of free and fair elections is an unglamorous job, but it is crucial for maintaining public trust in the political system. It also ensures that candidates and parties accept the results and are not tempted to launch coups or deliberately obstruct the post-election process. </p>
<p>Given the strains placed on the United States’ long-established democracy in recent years, Indonesia’s achievement in making elections work should not go unnoticed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-with-a-30-quota-in-place-indonesian-women-face-an-uphill-battle-running-for-office-222387">Even with a 30% quota in place, Indonesian women face an uphill battle running for office</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222604/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Sherlock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This is what it takes to organise the largest and most complex single-day election on the planet.Stephen Sherlock, Visiting Fellow, Department of Political and Social Change, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232872024-02-11T23:38:54Z2024-02-11T23:38:54ZPakistan’s post-election crisis – how anti-army vote may deliver an unstable government that falls into the military’s hands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574783/original/file-20240211-22-hgfmzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C567%2C5459%2C3083&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Like at this pro-PTI protest, the smoke has yet to clear following Pakistan's election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-khans-pakistan-tehreek-e-insaf-party-run-from-news-photo/1995105733?adppopup=true">M Asim Khan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68226228">Pakistan’s heavily anticipated general election</a> took place on Feb. 8, 2024, with citizens of the South Asian country hoping that it might prove a step toward ending the nation’s political uncertainty.</em></p>
<p><em>But several days later, it remains unclear what the result of the vote will yield. Both of the leading contenders <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/10/pakistans-khan-sharif-claim-election-win-despite-no-clear-majority">have claimed victory</a>, amid allegations of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/be2925f4-8cb6-41fc-ae07-b00a6493014d">vote rigging and disputed ballots</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation spoke with <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/ayesha-jalal">Ayesha Jalal, an expert on Pakistan’s political history</a> who teaches at Tufts University, about what the results of the election mean and what could happen next.</em></p>
<h2>Is it clear who will govern Pakistan next?</h2>
<p>The results as they stand mean that no party is in a position to form a government on its own. So a coalition government at the federal level is unavoidable.</p>
<p>And this is where things get tricky. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI – headed by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-19844270">jailed former prime minister and Pakistani cricket hero Imran Khan</a> – has emerged as the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/10/what-comes-next-2">largest party in the national assembly</a>, with around 93 candidates winning seats as “independents.” They had to run as independents because the party was <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-s-pti-barred-from-using-cricket-bat-electoral-symbol-/7439552.html">barred from using its electoral symbol</a>, a cricket bat, after a three-member bench of the supreme court ruled that PTI had failed to hold intraparty elections in line with its constitution.</p>
<p>But with a total of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-vote-counts-drags-after-election-marred-by-attacks-outages-2024-02-09/">265 seats in parliament</a>, that means the PTI is still well short of the number needed to form a government on its own.</p>
<p>The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, came in second with 78 seats, a tally that is likely to be boosted by the addition of PMLN-aligned independent members of parliament. The party – headed by Shahbaz Sharif, who took over from Khan as prime minister in 2022, and his brother, former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif – is thought to have the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistan-army-chief-backs-ex-pm-nawaz-sharifs-call-to-form-coalition-government/articleshow/107587628.cms?from=mdr">backing of the powerful Pakistani army</a>, but it did not perform as well as expected in the election.</p>
<p>The Pakistan People’s Party, or PPP, secured 54 seats, placing it third. This puts it in a position to help another party form a coalition at the federal level.</p>
<h2>With the most seats, is the PTI the front-runner to lead a coalition?</h2>
<p>The PTI has made it clear that it wants to form a government on its own and believes that its mandate was stolen. </p>
<p>Even before the final election results became known, the <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/imran-khans-party-claims-victory-in-170-seats-vows-to-form-government-report-5032101">PTI claimed it had won 170 or so seats</a> – enough for it to be able to form a government. But that appears to be without evidence.</p>
<p>This suggests the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/11/pakistan-election-results-live-wait-for-final-tally-three-days-after-vote">PTI isn’t ready to accept</a> that it did not get enough votes to form a government outright. The party instead is challenging the results, claiming that its vote was suppressed illegally, and the PTI has already formally registered complaints in 18 constituencies. </p>
<p>I believe it is more likely that a coalition will emerge between the other parties, led by the PMLN. But the question is whether that will satisfy an electorate that voted the PTI as the largest party in parliament.</p>
<h2>That doesn’t sound very stable. Is it?</h2>
<p>It isn’t. Pakistan is now entering an uncertain scenario, which is, in effect, a post-election political crisis.</p>
<p>Coalitions are not uncommon in Pakistan’s politics, but they are not easy to manage. They can <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/pakistans-new-government-struggles-consolidate-control">become unwieldy</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/AtlanticCouncil/status/1756069234101133713">weak</a> and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/10/military-disrupts-pakistan-s-democracy-once-again-pub-89724">prone to manipulation</a>.</p>
<p>It also makes it far harder for any government to push through the kind of bold economic packages needed for the country to move forward and escape the deep structural problems that are ailing the economy, such as a <a href="https://www.theigc.org/blogs/taxing-effectively/why-does-pakistan-tax-so-little">limited tax base</a> and reliance on handouts from other countries. Tackling that requires hard, potentially unpopular decisions, which are more difficult when a government is split and has a limited popular mandate.</p>
<p>The country may need another national vote before too long to secure a more stable and workable government.</p>
<h2>The election has been called flawed in the West. Is that fair?</h2>
<p>By Pakistan’s standards, the actual polling went off relatively peacefully. There was a terrible attack in the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240118-baluchistan-explosive-region-on-iran-pakistan-borderland">restive province of Baluchistan</a> on the eve of the election that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68226516">killed 28 people</a>. But fears of widespread violence on the day of the election did not materialize.</p>
<p>And while there were undue <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-election-human-rights-commission-khan-3258e2131ac83e89c2c376b476caccec">curbs on political activity</a> in the <a href="https://www.apstylebook.com/search?query=runup&button=">run-up</a> to the elections, the election itself appears to be largely credible by Pakistani standards, as the country’s foreign ministry has been <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-02-10/pakistan-hits-back-at-criticism-of-election-conduct-and-insists-cellphone-curbs-were-necessary">quick to attest</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that the PTI, a party that is out of favor with Pakistan’s current senior military leadership, has done so well suggests there was no straightforward rigging across the board. There was harassment of PTI voters in some places, but it clearly wasn’t sufficient to make huge inroads into their overall vote.</p>
<p>One can’t compare Pakistan’s democracy with that of the U.S. or any other country. The problem with many outside observers of Pakistan’s politics is that they talk normatively – that is, they see Pakistan’s elections through the eyes of what is generally seen as the norm elsewhere.</p>
<p>But Pakistani politics are unique. The country is a military-dominated state, with generals that have long been involved in the country’s politics – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/pakistan-election-imran-khan.html">and elections</a>.</p>
<p>But the alternative to managed elections, no matter how messy, is martial law. And a flawed democracy is better than the military jackboot.</p>
<p>More than that, the election itself took place relatively peacefully. There has been a great deal of criticism in the West about <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/8/inherently-undemocratic-pakistan-suspends-mobile-services-on-voting-day">cellphones and mobile internet services being blocked</a> on election day. That may seem like unacceptable interference in the electoral process to outside observers. But in Pakistan, there was <a href="https://france24.com/en/20121123-pakistan-suspends-mobile-phone-service-security-ashura-shiite-terrorism">real concern about cellphones</a> being used to detonate explosive devices.</p>
<h2>Will anyone be pleased with the election result?</h2>
<p>Ironically, while the PTI’s strong showing represents an anti-establishment vote – and, more specifically, an anti-army vote – the divided national mandate means the army high command has reason to be satisfied with the outcome.</p>
<p>A split national assembly and weak government plays into the military’s hands. Should the PMLN govern as the major party in a coalition, it will be in a position of relative weakness and will need the army’s support, especially if the PTI engages in widespread protests against the election results. </p>
<h2>Are there any positives from the election?</h2>
<p>Yes, insofar as the process of seeking the peoples’ support has been allowed to continue. But the negatives are seen by most to outweigh the positives and the 2024 elections are being viewed as equally – if not more – manipulated and controlled than the 2018 exercise. </p>
<p>The turnout this time around is <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/10-Feb-2024/voters-turnout-remain-48-percent-in-election-fafen-report">estimated to be around 48%</a>, which is lower than in 2018 when it was 51%. The demographic breakdown is encouraging. The youth played a crucial role; 44% of voters were under the age of 35. And women, too, played a larger role in the vote – more women contested and also won seats.</p>
<p>And party politics aside, the result suggests that old tactics to intimidate and suppress voters largely didn’t work. The expectation was that the spate of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/main-criminal-cases-against-pakistans-imran-khan-2024-01-31/">legal verdicts against Khan</a> just weeks before the election and his continued imprisonment might curb his popularity and mean PTI supporters would stay home. That clearly didn’t happen.</p>
<p>But what they helped deliver may only help continue Pakistan’s political malaise as it heads into a new, uncertain period.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The PTI, the party of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, won the most seats of any one party – but fell short of reaching the threshold for a majority government.Ayesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215732024-02-08T13:21:26Z2024-02-08T13:21:26ZAI could help cut voter fraud – but it’s far more likely to disenfranchise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570452/original/file-20240120-27-wwkoa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C44%2C5802%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Yeexin Richelle</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine the year is 2029. You have been living at the same address for a decade. The postman, who knows you well, smiles as he walks to your door and hands you a bunch of letters. As you sift through them, one card grabs your attention. It says: “Let us know if you are still here.” </p>
<p>It’s an election year and the card from the electoral office is asking you to confirm you are still a resident at the same address. It has a deadline, and you may be purged from the voter list if you don’t respond to it. </p>
<p>You had read about the government using AI to detect and eliminate electoral fraud through selective querying. Is it the AI pointing fingers at you? A quick check reveals your neighbours haven’t received any such cards. You feel singled out and insecure. Why have you been asked to prove that you live where you’ve lived for so long?</p>
<p>Let’s look under the hood. You received the card because election officials had deployed an AI system that can triangulate evidence to estimate why some voters should be contacted to check whether they are still a resident at their address. It profiles voters based on whether they display the behaviour of a “typical” resident. </p>
<p>In this case, you had taken early retirement and not filed tax returns in the past few years. And you had been on vacation during the previous election in 2024. These actions led the AI to conclude that you could be lingering in the electoral list illegitimately and triggered the system to contact you. </p>
<p>This fictional story is more plausible than you might think. In 2017 and 2018, more than 340,000 Wisconsin residents <a href="https://www.wicourts.gov/ca/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=255587">received</a> a letter asking them to confirm if they needed to remain on the voter list. This was at the behest of a US-wide organisation called <a href="https://ericstates.org/">Eric</a>, which had classified these voters as “movers” – those who may have ceased to be residents. Eric used data on voting history to identify movers – but also administrative data such as <a href="https://elections.wi.gov/memo/2023-eric-movers-review-process-quarter-4">driving licence and post office records</a>. </p>
<p>Eric may not have used any sophisticated AI, but the logic it employed is very much the kind of logic that an AI would be expected to apply, only at a much larger scale.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A roll of stickers reading 'I voted' next to a a picture US flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If AI is left in charge of prompting voter registrations, fewer people might end up on the roll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Barbara Kalbfleisch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The approach seemed highly effective. Only 2% of people responded, suggesting the vast majority of the people contacted were indeed movers. But <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abe4498">research</a> later showed systematic demographic patterns among Eric errors. The people erroneously identified as movers (and ended up showing up to vote) were far more likely to be from ethnic minorities.</p>
<h2>AI and ‘majoritarian gerrymandering’</h2>
<p>AI algorithms are used in a variety of real-world settings to make judgments on human users. Supermarkets routinely use algorithms to judge whether you are a beer person or a wine person to send you targeted offers. </p>
<p>Every online payment transaction is being assessed by an AI in real-time to decide whether it could be fraudulent. If you’ve ever tried to buy something and ended up triggering an additional security measure – be it a password prompt or request for authentication on a mobile app – your bank’s AI was judging your attempted transaction as abnormal or suspect.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">research</a> shows that abundant AI capacity is available to make judgments on whether people’s behaviour is deviant or abnormal. To return to our opening example, in a world where early retirement is not the norm, an early retiree has the scales tipped against them.</p>
<p>Such social sorting, carried out by AI-based judgments, could be interpreted as a latent or soft form of majoritarian gerrymandering. Traditional gerrymandering is the unethical practice of redrawing electoral district boundaries to skew electoral outcomes. AI-based social sorting could disenfranchise people for behaving in a way that deviates from the way the majority behaves. </p>
<p>The patterns in the Wisconsin case should have us concerned that voters from ethnic minorities were systematically being classified as deviating from cultural norms. </p>
<h2>Who gets a vote?</h2>
<p>In an ideal world, the electoral roll would include all eligible voters and exclude all ineligible voters. Clean voter lists are vital for democracy. </p>
<p>Having ineligible voters lurking on lists opens the possibility for spurious voting, skewing the result and damaging electoral integrity. On the other hand, leaving eligible voters off a list disenfranchises them and could result in election results that don’t reflect the true will of the people. </p>
<p>Ensuring access to the franchise to every eligible voter is therefore very important. To do a good job, efforts towards clean voter lists need to spread their focus <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1532673X20906472">reasonably between integrity and access</a>. </p>
<p>The question, therefore, becomes whether AI is capable of doing this. As it stands today, AI is fundamentally a data-driven technology – one that is adept at looking at existing data and identifying regularities or irregularities. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">much better equipped</a> to spot issues with existing data than to identify instances of missing data. That means it is good at identifying people who may have moved from their registered address but not good at identifying new residents who have not registered to vote. </p>
<p>In a world of AI-driven electoral cleansing, you are much more likely to receive a “are you still here?” card than your new neighbour is likely to receive a “have you considered registering to vote?” card. </p>
<p>What this means for using AI to clean up voter lists is stark. It risks skewing the balance towards checking for integrity and away from enabling access. Integrity focused efforts in essence involve pointing fingers at people and putting the onus on them to confirm they are legitimate voters. Access focused efforts are like a welcoming pat on the back – an invitation to be part of the political process.</p>
<p>Even if widespread disenfranchisement doesn’t happen, states still risk undermining trust in elections by using AI on a larger scale. It could lead voters to feel electoral offices are obsessively oriented towards fault-finding and much less interested in democratic inclusion. And at a time when trust in elections is needed more than ever, that perception could be just as damaging as actually cutting people from electoral rolls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stanley Simoes receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 945231; and the Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepak Padmanabhan and Muiris MacCarthaigh do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI is likely to be used to help us run elections in the near future but there are risks as well as reward.Deepak Padmanabhan, Senior Lecturer in AI ethics, Queen's University BelfastMuiris MacCarthaigh, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, Queen's University BelfastStanley Simoes, Marie Curie Early Stage Researcher, School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215792024-01-26T17:57:55Z2024-01-26T17:57:55ZDisinformation is often blamed for swaying elections – the research says something else<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571138/original/file-20240124-29-k5hu7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C175%2C5575%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/color-image-some-people-voting-polling-435657658">Alexandru Nika/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many countries <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024">face general elections</a> this year. Political campaigning will include misleading and even false information. Just days ago, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/fake-biden-robocall-message-in-new-hampshire-alarms-election-experts?leadSource=uverify%20wall">it was reported</a> that a robocall impersonating US president Joe Biden had told recipients not to vote in the presidential primary. </p>
<p>But can disinformation significantly influence voting? </p>
<p>There are two typical styles of election campaigning. One is positive, presenting favourable attributes of politicians and their policies, and the other is negative – disparaging the opposition. The latter <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41253-019-00084-8;">can backfire</a>, though, or lead to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00618.x?casa_token=kG3-EyUhaHYAAAAA:UydVoChML-dFiFC370Su8gRQmPSAMV1E0cqg0cZ2owdl-NSw4uvQvHsjXIpdxpebgYZXAYb5aDWX">voters disengaging</a> with the entire democratic process. </p>
<p>Voters are already <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.071905.101448?casa_token=a0oggffzdCkAAAAA:61ee1-KZtnN5OvUoordIlQChJwegerDlKfg6q5bCJZXUy-ND70U_4ZcapONNd1mibsDPVD8jjSvHYw">fairly savvy</a> – they know that campaigning tactics often include distortions and untruths. Both types of tactics, positive and negative, <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/innovation/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Factsheet-4.pdf">can feature misinformation</a>, which loosely refers to inaccurate, false and misleading information. Sometimes this even counts as disinformation, because the details are deliberately designed to be misleading. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, recent research shows that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-why-it-may-not-necessarily-lead-to-bad-behaviour-199123">lack of clarity in defining</a> misinformation and disinformation is a problem. There is no consensus. Scientifically and practically, this is bad. It’s hard to chart the scale of a problem if your starting point includes <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/17456916221141344">vague or confused</a> concepts. This is a problem for the general public, too, given it makes it harder to decipher and trust research on the topic.</p>
<p>For example, depending on how inclusive the definition is, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=hB5sEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA173&dq=public+perceptions+negative+election+campaigning+%22propaganda%22&ots=i47RTsBtju&sig=JYS30Bjr6Hu17xdxRn50HXlsAPY">propaganda</a>, <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rcybxx/v5y2020i2p199-217.html">deep fakes</a>, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.2.211">fake news</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35039654/">conspiracy theories</a> are all examples of disinformation. But <a href="https://edisciplinas.usp.br/pluginfile.php/4948550/mod_resource/content/1/Fake%20News%20Digital%20Journalism%20-%20Tandoc.pdf">news parody or political satire</a> can be too. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, researchers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2020.03.014">often fail to provide clear definitions</a>, and do not carefully compare different types of disinformation, adding uncertainty to evidence examining its effect on voting behaviour. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, let’s investigate the research on disinformation so far, which is generally viewed as more serious than misinformation, to see <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/explaining-beliefs-in-electoral-misinformation-in-the-2022-brazilian-election-the-role-of-ideology-political-trust-social-media-and-messaging-apps/">how much influence it can really have</a> on the way we vote. </p>
<h2>Unconvincing findings</h2>
<p>Consider <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733322001494">a study published in 2023</a>, investigating the role of fake news in the Italian general elections in 2013 and 2018. It used debunking websites to help create a fake news score for articles published in the run-up to the election.</p>
<p>Then the researchers analysed populist parties’ pre-election Facebook posts containing such news content. This also generated an engagement score based on the number of likes and shares of the posts. </p>
<p>Finally, scores were combined with actual electoral votes for populist parties to gauge the possible influence of fake news on such votes. The researchers estimated that fake news added a small but statistically significant electoral gain for populist parties. But the researchers suggested that fake news could not be the sole cause of the overall increase in vote share for populist parties – it only seemed to add a small amount to the overall increase in vote share.</p>
<p>Similar studies showing <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aau2706">low effects</a> of fake news on persuading voters has led some researchers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0833-x">to argue</a> that the panic about fake news is overblown. </p>
<p>Other recent studies have looked at the potential influence of disinformation by asking people how they intended to vote and whether they believed specific pieces of disinformation. This was examined in national or presidential elections in <a href="https://www.martenscentre.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/15.pdf">the Czech Republic in 2021</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23743670.2020.1719858?casa_token=G5kslUWsQRkAAAAA:ZW_ghmhO0phxYhgElEnuToqcAK_f_3o2BLrzew-RW0tlNZBX9_UuXgricYyuzZ-qgvZVQUgfoycKXw">Kenya in 2017</a>, <a href="https://www.ajpor.org/article/12982-analysis-of-fake-news-in-the-2017-korean-presidential-election">South Korea in 2017</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23743670.2020.1719858">Indonesia in 2019, Malaysia in 2018</a>, <a href="https://www.martenscentre.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/15.pdf">Philippines in 2022</a> and <a href="https://www.ajpor.org/article/12985-does-fake-news-matter-to-election-outcomes-the-case-study-of-taiwan-s-2018-local-elections">Taiwan in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>The general finding among all these studies was that it is hard to establish a reliable causal influence of fake news on voting. One reason was that who people say they vote for and how they actually vote can be vastly different. </p>
<p>In fact, research has gone into understanding the reasons for dramatic failures of traditional pollsters to predict elections and referendums <a href="https://journalofbigdata.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40537-021-00525-8">in Argentina in 2019</a>, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/abs/quebec-2018-a-failure-of-the-polls/97380BA7567B11B95E88FAA2149BDC51">Quebec in 2018</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319982710_Collective_failure_Lessons_from_combining_forecasts_for_the_UK's_referendum_on_EU_membership">UK in 2016</a> and <a href="https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/sociologyfacpub/543/">US in 2016</a>. People didn’t, for many reasons, reveal their actual voting intentions to pollsters and researchers. </p>
<h2>Who is susceptible?</h2>
<p>What about specific groups of voters, though? Might there be some that are more influenced by disinformation than others? Political affiliation doesn’t seem to matter. People tend <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2020.03.014">to rate fake news as accurate</a> when it’s in line with their own political beliefs. For instance, in the 2016 US presidential elections, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump supporters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12233">were equally likely</a> to rate fake news about their opposition as accurate. </p>
<p>How about undecided voters? Some studies show that undecided voters are more likely than decided voters to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2021.1883706">consider fake news headlines as credible</a>. But the opposite has also been shown – that they are <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.2.211">less susceptible to political fake news</a>. </p>
<p>Still, to maximise the influence of disinformation in an election, undecided voters would be the obvious target, especially in close-run elections. But accurately profiling undecided voters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12414">is difficult</a> – especially since people are cautious in revealing their voting intentions and the reasons behind them.</p>
<p>And if politicians or campaign staff use <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1369148119842038">disinformation in aggressive negative campaigning</a> to sway undecided voters, they can end up increasing disengagement in the election process – making some people even more undecided.</p>
<p>Ultimately, most research suggests that fake news <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/17456916221141344">is more likely to enhance existing beliefs</a> and views rather than <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-00980-6">radically change voting intentions</a> of the undecided. </p>
<p>Another issue that often gets ignored is a phenomenon known in psychology as <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2001-16230-004">the third-person effect</a> – that we think that others are more persuadable, and even gullible, than ourselves. </p>
<p>So when it comes to who is susceptible to disinformation, it is likely that those studying it, as well as those participating in the studies, <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-presumed-influence-of-election-misinformation-on-others-reduces-our-own-satisfaction-with-democracy/">assume they are immune</a>, but that anyone else, such as supporters of the opposing political party, are not – making the evidence harder to interpret. </p>
<p>It would be naive to say that disinformation, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Politics_and_Propaganda.html?id=FTrgh74moswC">such as political propaganda</a>, doesn’t have any influence on voting. But we should be careful not to assign disinformation as the sole explanation for election results that go against predictions.</p>
<p>If we assign disinformation such a high level of influence, we ultimately deny people’s agency in making free voting choices. And studies show that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375301055_Folk_beliefs_about_where_manipulation_outside_of_awareness_occurs_and_how_much_awareness_and_free_choice_is_still_maintained">we are aware</a> that manipulative methods are used on us. Still, we all judge that we can maintain <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2023-13856-001">an ability to make our own choice</a> when voting.</p>
<p>It’s important to take this seriously. Our belief in free will is ultimately a reason so many of us back democracy in the first place. Denying it can arguably be more damaging than a few fake news posts lurking on social media.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magda Osman receives funding from Research England, ESRC, Wellcome Trust, and Turing Institute. </span></em></p>Most studies suggests that fake news is more likely to enhance existing beliefs and views rather than radically change voting intentions of those who are undecided.Magda Osman, Principal Research Associate in Basic and Applied Decision Making, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207692024-01-23T20:02:18Z2024-01-23T20:02:18ZMichigan selects its legislative redistricting commissioners the way the ancient Athenians did<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570410/original/file-20240119-21-bkynf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C38%2C5066%2C3349&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michigan’s redistricting commission consists of ordinary citizens with no special qualifications. A court has disapproved their initial effort.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedistrictingMajorityMinorityDistricts/5137b615fc8d46858956d5ec7bff88e1/photo?boardId=c895684284c34868ab222ff6c8ee3ff0&st=boards&mediaType=audio,photo,video,graphic&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=12&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Carlos Osorio</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How well can ordinary citizens exercise a political function traditionally assigned to elected legislators? </p>
<p>Michigan is finding out. The state has assigned the job of drawing election districts to a group of citizens with no special qualifications. Selecting government officials by lot is a procedure <a href="https://blog.oup.com/2016/03/sortition-ancient-greece-democracy/">first employed in Athens 2,500 years ago</a>. This experiment has produced dramatic results – as well as a court challenge. </p>
<p>The Michigan experiment marks a departure from how redistricting has usually been done.</p>
<p>Every 10 years, after the U.S. Census Bureau determines how many members of the House of Representatives are allocated to each state, the states redraw the geographical districts from which members of the House, as well as members of the state legislature, are elected. Historically, state legislatures have been responsible for making these maps.</p>
<p>But throughout U.S. history, the redistricting process has been marred by <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/news/2019/10/01/475166/impact-partisan-gerrymandering/">partisan gerrymandering</a> – drawing election districts to favor the political party that controls the state legislature.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/redistricting-litigation-roundup-0">Gerrymandering has often been challenged in court</a> as a violation of the Constitution’s equal protection clause and on other grounds. But in 2019, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">the U.S. Supreme Court held</a> that federal courts may not hear claims of partisan gerrymandering because they represent a “political question” that is unsuited for resolution by the courts.</p>
<p>The high court held that such issues should instead be resolved by the legislative and executive branches of government. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State-by-state_redistricting_procedures">Eight states have withdrawn the authority</a> to draw election districts from legislatures and assigned it to independent commissions. The procedures for selecting the members of these commissions vary, but in most states they are chosen by state legislators or judges. </p>
<p>Michigan’s <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc">Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission</a>, created by a <a href="https://votersnotpoliticians.com/redistricting/">2018 ballot initiative</a>, is unique. As a professor who teaches <a href="https://law.wayne.edu/profile/aj8419">constitutional law</a> and, occasionally, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1020397">ancient Athenian law</a>, I am fascinated by the fact that Michigan’s seemingly novel experiment in governance is based on a process that is thousands of years old. </p>
<h2>Selection by lot</h2>
<p>Unlike any other state, Michigan selected its 13 commission members almost entirely by lot from among those who applied for the position. </p>
<p>All Michigan registered voters who met the eligibility criteria, which excluded holders of political office and lobbyists, were eligible to apply. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.michigan.gov/som/0,4669,7-192-47796-532639--,00.html">From 9,367 applicants</a>, the Michigan secretary of state randomly selected 200 semifinalists. The process resulted in 60 Democrats, 60 Republicans and 80 independents. Following the procedure established by the ballot initiative, the four leaders of the Michigan Legislature then eliminated 20 of those semifinalists. </p>
<p>In August 2020, the secretary of state <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/08/13-commissioners-randomly-selected-to-draw-new-district-lines-for-michigan-house-senate.html">randomly selected the 13 commissioners</a> from the remaining pool of 180 candidates – four Democrats, four Republicans and five independents, as required.</p>
<p>In a process completed in December 2021, the commission – made up of citizens with no special qualifications for the office – created election districts that were used to elect officials to the Michigan Legislature and the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 election cycle.</p>
<h2>Random selection in ancient Athens</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In a formal painting, a man stands on a platform addressing a crowd. A classical white building with pillars is in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570739/original/file-20240122-15-jbj453.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In ancient Athens, most government officials were selected at random from among citizens eligible to fill the positions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rijksmuseum.nl/en/collection/RP-F-2001-7-864-5">Philipp Foltz</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the exception of trial juries, the random selection of citizens to fill government office is almost unheard of. But it was not always that way. </p>
<p>Random selection was a prominent <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Athenian_Democracy/">feature of the ancient Athenian democracy</a>. In the fifth and fourth centuries B.C., most important government offices were filled by lottery. The Athenians considered this selection of officials a hallmark of democracy.</p>
<p>These included the <a href="http://www.stoa.org/demos/article_democracy_overview@page=6&greekEncoding=UnicodeC.html">500 members of the Council</a>. This body proposed legislation for the agenda of the Assembly, composed of all free male adult citizens who chose to attend and the centerpiece of Athenian direct democracy. It also handled diplomatic relations between Athens and other states and appointed the members of administrative bodies. </p>
<p>Those selected by lot also included the nine chief officials of the city-state, <a href="https://erenow.net/ancient/ancient-greece-and-rome-an-encyclopedia-for-students-4-volume-set/268.php">the archons</a>, who had executive and judicial responsibilities. About 1,100 officials were selected annually by lot from a citizen population of about 25,000. </p>
<p>The Athenian historian Xenophon tells us that the philosopher Socrates, who was sentenced to death by an Athenian jury for his unorthodox views, thought that the Athenians were foolish to entrust the selection of the bulk of government officials to chance: <a href="http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0208%3Abook%3D1%3Achapter%3D2%3Asection%3D9">Nobody would select “a pilot or builder or flautist by lot</a>,” Socrates observed, so why trust to chance the selection of government officials who, if unsuited to their responsibilities, could harm the community?</p>
<p>The Athenians agreed with Socrates to an extent. In Athens, an additional 100 or so officials were elected by the Assembly, not selected by lot. They included the 10 generals responsible for commanding the army and navy. The Athenians thought the generals’ role was too important, and too dependent on skills possessed by few citizens, to allow the choice to be made randomly.</p>
<h2>How did Michigan’s redistricting commission do?</h2>
<p>Like piloting a ship or commanding an army, districting is a complex task. The <a href="http://tinyurl.com/bdfm4yut">2018 amendment to the Michigan Constitution</a> that established the commission says that the districts must be drawn in compliance with federal law. That includes a requirement that voting districts have roughly the same populations. It also requires that the districts “reflect the state’s diverse population and communities of interest” and “not provide a disproportionate advantage to any political party.”</p>
<p>Dividing the map to meet all of these criteria is not within the capabilities of a group of randomly selected citizens. Recognizing this, the 2018 amendment authorizes the commission to hire “independent, nonpartisan subject-matter experts and legal counsel” to assist them. The experts that the commission hired <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/redistricting-experts-tell-court-we-followed-law-michigan-maps">guided its members closely</a> throughout the redistricting process.</p>
<p>The outcome of the 2022 elections supports a conclusion that the commission achieved the goals that motivated its creation. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.michiganradio.org/post/report-quantifies-michigans-very-real-gerrymandering-problem">2018 report</a> by the nonpartisan Citizens Research Council of Michigan found that the state’s election districts were “highly-gerrymandered, with current district maps drawn so that Republicans are ensured disproportionate majorities on both the state and federal levels.” In 2019 a <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/04/25/michigan-gerrymandering/3576663002/">federal court</a> held that Michigan’s gerrymandering violated the U.S. Constitution. That opinion was later vacated, or canceled, for jurisdictional reasons. </p>
<p>This gerrymandering was reflected in election results. In recent elections preceding the 2022 redistricting, Democratic candidates for the Michigan House of Representatives received a majority of the votes cast, yet <a href="https://votersnotpoliticians.com/voters-won-in-michigan-this-year-and-fair-maps-made-the-difference/">a majority of the candidates elected were Republican</a>. But in the 2022 elections, the first held using the redistricting commission’s maps, Democratic candidates for both the Michigan Senate and House won a majority of the votes and were awarded a majority of the seats: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-michigan.html">20-18 in the Senate and 56-54 in the House</a>. Democrats control both houses of the state Legislature for <a href="https://michiganadvance.com/2022/11/09/democrats-wrest-control-of-michigan-legislature-for-first-time-in-almost-40-years/">the first time since 1984</a>.</p>
<h2>Legal challenge to redistricting commission’s maps</h2>
<p>While the redistricting commission can claim success in eliminating the state’s partisan gerrymandering, in December 2023 <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/michigan/miwdce/1:2022cv00272/104360/131/">a federal district court held</a> that the procedure the commission followed in drawing some of the election districts violated the U.S. Constitution. </p>
<p>The court said that the commission violated the equal protection clause when it drew boundaries for seven state House and six state Senate districts in metro Detroit in such a way that <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/experts-everything-air-now-michigan-districts-must-be-redrawn">the voting power of Black voters was diluted</a>. </p>
<p>The commission filed an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court, but the court <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/22/michigan-redistricting-commission-us-supreme-court-redraw-house-senate-district-boundaries/72272380007/">denied the commission’s request for a stay</a> of the lower court’s order. The commission is now working to redraw the districts, and the lower court has ordered it to have a draft of the state House districts ready for public comment by Feb. 2. Time is now of the essence, since under state law the candidate filing deadline is April 23.</p>
<p><em>Portions of this article originally appeared in <a href="https://theconversation.com/michigans-effort-to-end-gerrymandering-revives-a-practice-rooted-in-ancient-athens-143892">an article published on Sept. 30, 2020</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rothchild does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A battle over the voting districts in Detroit has landed in the Supreme Court, but any ruling may come too late for 2024 state elections.John Rothchild, Professor of Law, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189512023-12-20T16:05:44Z2023-12-20T16:05:44ZPeople love to vote in a new democracy – and then they rapidly lose interest<p>Poland’s recent election has been hailed as a great triumph of democracy in <a href="https://v-dem.net/documents/30/V-dem_democracyreport2023_highres.pdf">a global environment of democratic backsliding</a>. It brought to power a coalition of pro-democratic forces led by <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-government-election-donald-tusk-mateusz-morawiecki-andrzej-duda/">Donald Tusk</a>, the former president of the European Council. </p>
<p>This election was also considered a historical landmark because it saw Poland record <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/huge-turnout-poland-decisive-elections/story?id=104004666#:%7E:text=Nearly%252074%2525%2520of%2520voters%2520turned%2520out%2520to%2520polling%2520stations%2520on%2520Sunday.&text=From%25207%2520a.m.%2520onward%2520Sunday,ballots%2520needed%2520to%2520be%2520printed.">its highest voter turnout since 1919</a>. Participation was even higher than the election that cemented the fall of Communism, paving the way for democracy in the first place.</p>
<p>Yet this election seems to be an outlier. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00104140231194922">Patterns of voter turnout</a> over several decades have shown <a href="https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/voter-turnout-trends-around-the-world.pdf">a systematic and consistent</a> decline. And this decline is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/does-democratic-consolidation-lead-to-a-decline-in-voter-turnout-global-evidence-since-1939/9A234A962871A9580C8A32D62FB6B717">much more accelerated in new democracies</a>, such as those that have transitioned away from communism following the end of the USSR. </p>
<p>This pattern is puzzling. We might expect enthusiasm for democratic transitions to boost voter turnout. Citizens who have ached to exert their democratic rights during a long period of political repression might naturally head out to the polls in their droves. </p>
<p>In the immediate term, this is the case. The euphoria and enthusiasm of the democratic transition can lead to higher turnout in a new democracy’s first election after transition. </p>
<p>I’ve <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00104140231194922">examined electoral turnout</a> in 1,086 elections across 100 countries between 1946 and 2015 and found that turnout in the first election after a democratic transition is about three percentage points higher than other elections (in new and established democracies).</p>
<p>But the high turnout rate in the first election is a short-term phenomenon. The rate of participation in new democracies drops consistently as more elections are held.</p>
<p>Tunisia is a prime example. The turnout in its first parliamentary free election in 2011 after the <a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/tunisia-can-bounce-back-authoritarianism-proper-support">fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali</a> was over 90%. But once the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00104140231194922">complicated realities of building democracy set in</a>, turnout tumbled dramatically. </p>
<p>Wrangling over institutional design and the redistribution of political power and resources meant that excitement dissipated and was replaced by <a href="https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/11/12/tunisia-a-failed-democratic-experiment/">disappointment with democracy.</a> Tunisians lost their faith in the ability of political actors to keep democracy alive. Participation declined sharply in this period. In <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/low-voter-turnout-in-tunisian-elections-casts-doubt-on-future-parliaments-legitimacy">the most recent election</a> in 2023, turnout barely reached 11%.</p>
<h2>Rapid disillusionment</h2>
<p>The plummet in voter turnout that new democracies experience could be explained by voters rapidly becoming disillusioned with the reality of democracy. That’s not to say they’d return to the undemocratic systems of their past but that they don’t feel enthusiastic enough to go to the polling station on election day.</p>
<p>In the first election after the transition to democracy, also referred to as the founding election, a country’s electoral politics naturally focuses on <a href="https://www.academia.edu/6207585/Book_Elections_in_Estonia_1990_1992_Transitional_and_Founding">pitting opponents and supporters</a> of the former autocracy against those who wanted to overthrow it. But that soon evolves into something more mundane – regular electoral politics in which parties compete over voters based on <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0010414006293857">partisanship, ideology or policy preferences</a>. </p>
<p>In other words, the binary choice between autocracy and democracy excites voters, while the choices of regular electoral politics may increase apathy among voters. More simply, <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/publications/uwp_41_final.pdf">voters in new democracies may not be used (yet)</a> to the complicated reality of elections in democracy.</p>
<h2>Young revolutionaries become active voters</h2>
<p>The evidence suggests that the way in which a country transitions to democracy <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/from-dissent-to-democracy-9780190097318?cc=us&lang=en&">plays a part</a> in the political attitudes and behaviours of its citizens. Transitions driven by <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/why-civil-resistance-works/9780231156837">non-violent, mass mobilisation</a> have the potential to socialise people into developing more pro-democratic attitudes. This is perhaps because citizens are made aware of their power to influence politics via participation and therefore become active participants in politics afterwards.</p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00104140231194922">My research</a>, which used survey data to capture electoral turnout among 1.2 million respondents from 85 democracies between 1982 and 2015, shows that this is a more powerful force among people who experience the transition to democracy during <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026137941300084X">their formative years</a>. </p>
<p>Those who transition to democracy between the ages of 15 and 29 are two percentage points more likely to turn out to vote later in life compared to those who experienced the transition outside their formative years, or voters from established democracies that never experienced a transition. People who experienced a transition to democracy after they turned 30 were less likely to turn out to vote in new democracies.</p>
<p>The transition may have socialised the first cohort into being more pro-democratic because younger people are more likely to participate in protests – and experience the violent consequences of doing so. They are also more receptive to unorthodox ideas that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24357881">challenge old forms of power</a>.</p>
<p>The different experiences of the older cohort may suggest the socialising effect of democratic transitions may not be able to fully replace <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0010414019858958?journalCode=cpsa">the socialisation experience of living under autocracy</a>. Being socialised in an environment in which political participation is discouraged and strictly regulated by the government <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/publications/uwp_41_final.pdf">creates habits of disengagement from politics</a> that may not be fully reversed by the excitement of experiencing a democratic transition. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/voter-turnout-trends-around-the-world.pdf">The global decline in voter turnout</a>, particularly in new democracies, is a worrying sign for the health of democracy. These findings suggest that countering this trend means encouraging people to see participating in democracy as being as important – and exciting – as overthrowing a dictatorship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218951/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roman Gabriel Olar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Voting patterns over decades show how hard it is to maintain enthusiasm for democracy.Roman Gabriel Olar, Assistant Professor in Political Science, Dublin City UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193372023-12-15T13:19:20Z2023-12-15T13:19:20ZSandra Day O’Connor saw civics education as key to the future of democracy<p>Beyond her trailblazing role as the first woman appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor considered <a href="https://www.icivics.org/">iCivics</a> – a civics education nonprofit founded after she retired from the court – to be her “<a href="https://www.icivics.org/our-founder">most important legacy</a>.”</p>
<p>“The practice of democracy is not passed down through the gene pool,” O’Connor <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/118/sres333/text">once stated</a>. “It must be taught and learned by each new generation.”</p>
<p>iCivics is the toolkit she assembled to do just that. Fulfilling O’Connor’s call to action, iCivics <a href="https://www.icivics.org/games">provides games</a> and activities designed to help students learn about American democracy. iCivics is predicated on getting students to actively apply what they’re learning through interaction and simulation. The website <a href="https://www.icivics.org/who-we-are">serves 9 million students annually</a>, in all 50 states.</p>
<p>O’Connor’s dedication to civics education was motivated by her keen awareness of its vital importance. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marianneschnall/2023/12/01/reflections-from-my-interview-with-trailblazing-supreme-court-justice-sandra-day-oconnor/?sh=6c18e3f356ff">She once noted</a>, “Without basic civic education, we cannot expect to preserve or improve our system of government.”</p>
<p>As <a href="https://joshuajansa.com/">researchers</a> who <a href="https://www.everingsmuth.com/">examine the impact of civics coursework</a>, we agree. The evidence shows that civics education generally – and the iCivics initiative specifically – has proven an effective tool for preparing citizens, especially when instructors get their students to actively engage with the material and one another.</p>
<p>One study found that elementary, middle and high school students <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264346878_The_Impact_of_iCivics_on_Students%27_Core_Civic_Knowledge">exhibited substantial growth in political knowledge</a> after interacting with iCivics for just 30 minutes twice per week.</p>
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<img alt="Two boys look at the screen of a digital tablet in a classroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565630/original/file-20231213-27-6nbt9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565630/original/file-20231213-27-6nbt9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565630/original/file-20231213-27-6nbt9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565630/original/file-20231213-27-6nbt9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565630/original/file-20231213-27-6nbt9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565630/original/file-20231213-27-6nbt9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565630/original/file-20231213-27-6nbt9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Students gain more from active learning approaches.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/children-looking-at-tablet-together-in-classroom-royalty-free-image/1049271140?phrase=social+studies+class&adppopup=true">Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>While iCivics targets K-12 students, O’Connor considered <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marianneschnall/2023/12/01/reflections-from-my-interview-with-trailblazing-supreme-court-justice-sandra-day-oconnor/?sh=6c18e3f356ff">the need for civics education to extend more broadly</a>. She once observed that polls have shown that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marianneschnall/2023/12/01/reflections-from-my-interview-with-trailblazing-supreme-court-justice-sandra-day-oconnor/?sh=2b1c945e56ff">only a third of the public could name the three branches of government</a>. “Compare that to the … nearly three-quarters who can name two of the Three Stooges, and the numbers are disheartening,” O’Connor stated.</p>
<h2>The quest for what works</h2>
<p>Like O’Connor, we are interested in identifying strategies for effective instruction. We study civics education at the college level. Specifically, we survey the thousands of students who take Introduction to American Government – a required general education and foundational civics education course -— each year at Oklahoma State University. We ask students to answer basic political knowledge questions at the beginning and end of each semester. We also ask students to assess their confidence in understanding politics and their ability to effectively participate.</p>
<p>While students who take Introduction to American Government <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15512169.2022.2097916">grow significantly</a> in their belief that they can understand and effectively engage with the political process, we find that – similar to the impact of iCivics activities – students experienced even more growth when their instructors used strategies that were actively engaging. These strategies include analyzing data and current events, group discussions and posting on online discussion boards.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15512169.2015.1090905">Like others</a>, our analyses also show students gain knowledge about government and politics through civics coursework. Importantly, these outcomes and civics education more generally have been shown to be significant predictors of future political participation. This includes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2017.11.005">regularly talking politics with peers</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssr.2018.09.006">voting</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S104909650300221X">petitioning and protesting</a>.</p>
<p>Our research also uncovers that there is flexibility in how to deliver effective civics education. Online classes promote as much or greater gains for students. Additionally, instructors can use technology to ensure learning about democracy persists <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096522001305">even if the class format must shift unexpectedly</a>, such as from in person to online.</p>
<p>Broader research from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0038-4941.2004.00269.x">middle</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-008-9063-z">high school</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1023/B:IHIE.0000047415.48495.05">college</a> levels, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096502001233">across formats</a>, echoes these findings. Giving students opportunities to actively apply course material and engage with peers equips them with the knowledge and skills to be active citizens.</p>
<h2>Changing futures</h2>
<p>Civics education is especially useful for lifting students who did not grow up talking about politics and discussing its importance onto equal footing with those who did. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055414000227">Women</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055416000368">racial and ethnic minorities</a>, for example, are on average less likely to be socialized by parents into learning about and taking part in politics. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-016-9341-0">Civics education can compensate</a> for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1207/S1532480XADS0604_7">these disparities</a>, creating a pathway for all to understand how government works and how they can take part.</p>
<p>O’Connor was committed to empowering and engaging young citizens through civics education. She <a href="https://parade.com/125604/davidgergen/30-sandra-day-oconnor-i-can-make-a-difference/">noted</a>, “We have a complex system of government. You have to teach it to every generation. We want young people to continue to be part of it. We need ’em more than ever.” </p>
<p>Though O’Connor made those comments in 2012, the need to encourage participation among younger generations persists. A recent <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">poll</a> indicates that the number of young Americans planning to vote in 2024 may be lower than in the 2020 election.</p>
<p>With more and more young Americans <a href="https://qz.com/848031/harvard-research-suggests-that-an-entire-global-generation-has-lost-faith-in-democracy">questioning whether it is essential to live in a democracy</a>, O’Connor’s efforts to increase access to civics education continue to light a path forward on how to reinvigorate democracy in the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The late Justice Sandra Day O'Connor’s iCivics curriculum has been shown to boost knowledge of the political process.Joshua Jansa, Associate Professor of Political Science, Oklahoma State UniversityEve Ringsmuth, Associate Professor of Political Science, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182962023-11-21T20:31:45Z2023-11-21T20:31:45ZWho can defend voting rights? An appeals court ruling sharply limiting lawsuits looks likely to head to the Supreme Court<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560834/original/file-20231121-4144-xyqtot.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The recent court decision about the Voting Rights Act could be a setback for people's right to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vehicle-displays-a-sign-reading-protect-our-freedom-to-vote-news-photo/1237831969?adppopup=true">Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A federal appeals court in <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24172336-arkansas-state-conference-naacp-2023-11-20-8th-circuit-opinion">Arkansas ruled</a> on Monday, Nov. 20, 2023, that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/20/federal-court-deals-devastating-blow-to-voting-rights-act-00128069">only the federal government</a> – not private citizens or civil rights groups – could sue to enforce the 1965 Voting Rights Act.</em></p>
<p><em>This decision will likely be appealed to the Supreme Court – but if it stands, it could gut individual people’s and civil rights groups’ legal right to fight racial discrimination in voting.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation spoke with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AI_UyLUAAAAJ&hl=en">Anthony Michael Kreis</a>, a scholar of constitutional law, democracy and civil rights, to better understand the significance of this court ruling.</em></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Black middle-aged man speaks at a podium with the words, 'deliver for voting rights,' in a crowd of people who are wearing jackets. One person holds a sign that says 'voter suppression is un-American.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560837/original/file-20231121-4173-ql0xtm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Martin Luther King III, eldest son of civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., speaks about voting rights in January 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/martin-luther-king-iii-eldest-son-of-civil-rights-leader-dr-news-photo/1237787296?adppopup=true">Samuel Corum/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>What is most important for people to understand about this court decision?</h2>
<p>There are currently two ways to safeguard the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act">Voting Rights Act</a> and try to enforce it in court. One is through the federal government and the Department of Justice. The other is private groups, often civil rights organizations, that try to enforce the Voting Rights Act when there is a violation and people are not being given equal opportunity and the ability to vote.</p>
<p>I believe it is important that groups like the <a href="https://www.aclu.org/issues/voting-rights/voting-rights-act">American Civil Liberties Union</a>, or ACLU, and the <a href="https://naacp.org/find-resources/history-explained/legislative-milestones/voting-rights-act-1965">National Association for the Advancement of Colored People</a>, or NAACP, can go to court and litigate voting rights questions. Part of the reason is that the Department of Justice is a government office with limited resources and a finite capacity to assess all of the different jurisdictions where voting takes place. It also requires the enthusiastic support of Justice Department leaders – and this cannot be guaranteed from administration to administration. </p>
<p>These private groups have a broader reach in terms of being able to document what is happening locally and at the state level – and whether people’s voting rights are possibly being violated.</p>
<p>A ruling that private groups can no longer file lawsuits related to the Voting Rights Act removes key voting rights protectors from their roles – primarily of stopping discriminatory rules or legislation that either deprive people of their right to vote or dilute the full force of their vote. </p>
<h2>How often do private groups file lawsuits to enforce the Voting Rights Act?</h2>
<p>The NAACP or the ACLU regularly file these lawsuits. Sometimes there have been multiple private groups <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/naacp-publications/ldf-blog/important-facts-about-ldfs-lawsuit-challenging-georgias-voter-suppression-bill/">filing lawsuits</a> at the same time. This happened in 2021, when a <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2021/03/27/what-does-georgias-new-voting-law-sb-202-do">new election law</a> in Georgia made it harder for some people to vote by limiting access to drop boxes and making it also more challenging to get an absentee ballot mailed. This law is <a href="https://www.lawyerscommittee.org/federal-court-halts-portion-of-georgias-sb202-voter-suppression-law/">still under litigation</a>. </p>
<p>The NAACP has also brought lawsuits against voting rights questions in Alabama, like whether people should have to <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/naacp-loses-11th-circuit-fight-against-alabama-voter-id-law/">present a photo ID</a> in order to vote. Generally, these lawsuits have had a great deal of success at <a href="https://naacp.org/articles/naacp-commends-supreme-court-allowing-new-alabama-congressional-map">protecting people’s right to vote</a>, especially the rights of Black people and other minorities. </p>
<p>It is because they have been so successful that some conservative people who would prefer to limit voting rights in a democracy, rather than expand them, have gone after organizations’ ability to file these lawsuits.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A big sign says 'vote here today' in front of a long line of Black people who stand ouside of a brown brick building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560838/original/file-20231121-3914-gq0a6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Black Americans line up to vote in 2008 outside of a Baptist church in Birmingham, Ala., one of the places that has faced new voting restrictions in the past few years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/african-americans-line-up-to-vote-outside-bethel-missionary-news-photo/83557085?adppopup=true">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How has the Voting Rights Act been interpreted so far?</h2>
<p>Over the years, numerous courts, including the <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-5th-circuit/115482724.html">5th</a>, <a href="https://casetext.com/case/mixon-v-state-of-ohio">6th</a> and <a href="https://casetext.com/case/ala-state-conference-of-na-for-advancement-of-colored-people-v-alabama">11th</a> circuits, have taken up this issue. These courts have determined that you cannot plausibly read the Voting Rights Act in its totality and not see there is a clear, private right of action for groups like the ACLU to go to court. </p>
<p>There is a reason why this issue of private groups filing voting rights lawsuits has kind of become a new fad. In a <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-1257">Supreme Court case in 2021</a>, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas both raised this question of whether this should be allowed.</p>
<p>Now, the <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/eighth-circuit-ruling-limits-enforcement-of-voting-rights-act/">8th Circuit Court has taken that cue</a> and ruled that nongovernmental groups do not have the right, under the Voting Rights Act, to sue states for voting rights violations. The reasoning is that Congress never explicitly provided this right in the act’s text. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court has informally recognized for decades that Congress recognizes the right of private groups to take action. And while Congress has amended the <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47520">Voting Rights Act through the years,</a> it has never tried to curtail private lawsuits. This confirms the long-understood premise that Congress empowers people and groups other than the federal government to bring voting rights litigation under the 1965 law.</p>
<h2>How does this ruling shift the legal landscape on this issue?</h2>
<p>Most of the appellate courts that have addressed this issue head-on have easily batted away arguments about private groups not being able to file lawsuits, because they have found them to be so implausible that they are not worth their time to analyze in a deep and serious way. </p>
<p>I think this ruling is part of a systemic attack against voting rights in the U.S. at an especially precarious time for American democracy’s health. This court ruling will likely <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/20/federal-court-deals-devastating-blow-to-voting-rights-act-00128069">go to the Supreme Court</a>, but if the Supreme Court affirms the decision, only the Department of Justice could enforce voting laws in a meaningful way. That is exceptionally dangerous and challenges the principle that all eligible voters get to have their voices heard in a democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Michael Kreis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ruling could make it impossible for groups like the ACLU to file lawsuits to protect people’s right to vote – significantly changing how the Voting Rights Act has been interpreted so far.Anthony Michael Kreis, Assistant Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2163972023-10-31T12:34:32Z2023-10-31T12:34:32ZYoung, female voters were the key to defeating populists in Poland’s election – providing a blueprint to reverse democracy’s decline<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556721/original/file-20231030-27-inp92a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C47%2C6327%2C4164&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Tusk looks set to lead the governing coalition, in large part thanks to female voters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-leader-of-civic-coalition-donald-tusk-celebrates-the-news-photo/1737953929?adppopup=true">Omar Marques/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results of Poland’s <a href="https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en">parliamentary elections</a> held on Oct. 15, 2023, have been lauded as a <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/opinion/poland-has-shown-how-to-defeat-populism/">blow against populism</a> – and they may also hold important lessons for reversing democracy’s decline. </p>
<p>In the vote, the conservative and increasingly autocratic <a href="https://pis.org.pl/">Law and Justice Party (PiS)</a>, which has ruled since 2015, still received the <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-election-results-opposition-donald-tusk-wins-final-count-civic-platform-pis/">largest number of seats</a> (35%) in Poland’s Sejm, the more powerful lower house of parliament. </p>
<p>But it was not enough to form a majority. Instead, it looks likely that the progressive Civic Platform will join forces with the Third Wave and New Left, which <a href="https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en">together received 54% of the votes</a>.</p>
<p>Should that be the case, they will rule as a liberal, pro-European Union government – a far cry from the policies of the PiS, which during its tenure <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/disturbing-campaign-against-polish-judges/605623/">attacked the independence of courts</a>, limited the space for civil society and <a href="https://doi.org//10.1080/21599165.2019.1608826">manipulated the public media</a>.</p>
<p>Heading into the national elections, there was no guarantee that politics in Poland would not continue down this route. There were, in fact, <a href="https://www.gmfus.org/news/red-lines-around-free-and-fair-polish-election">many reasons</a> to wonder whether the October elections were fair.</p>
<p>The PiS government used the elections as an opportunity to simultaneously hold a national referendum, <a href="https://referendum.gov.pl/referendum2023/en/pytania">asking voters to answer questions</a> about migrants, border walls, the retirement age and the selling off of state assets – issues known to be unifying for its supporters.</p>
<p>PiS also used <a href="https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/11/12/turning-propaganda-into-public-service-broadcasting-in-poland/">public media</a> to criticize the opposition. State TV, newspapers and social media – which critics say has, over the preceding eight years, <a href="https://www.oscepa.org/en/news-a-media/press-releases/press-2023/poland-s-parliamentary-elections-were-competitive-but-marked-by-misuse-of-public-resources-and-public-media-bias-international-observers-say">stopped being pluralistic and independent</a> – consistently misrepresented facts and attacked the opposition, often with <a href="https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/04/leaked-emails-purport-to-show-polish-state-tv-planning-to-declare-opposition-march-a-failure/">outlandish allegations</a>. In addition, exploitation of <a href="https://www.gmfus.org/sites/default/files/2023-09/Red%20Lines%20Polish%20Election_V4.pdf">state-owned companies</a> and public funds gave PiS a “clear advantage” going into the polls, according to the election observers at the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-opposition-eyes-power-after-ruling-nationalists-appear-have-fallen-short-2023-10-16/">Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)</a>.</p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://polisci.unl.edu/patrice-mcmahon">scholar of civil society in central Europe</a>, I was not surprised by the election results. My new co-authored book, “Activism in Hard Times in Central and Eastern Europe: People Power,” explores the role that <a href="https://doi.org//10.1007/s10767-022-09440-z">informal activism</a> – that is, non-organized, individual action by citizens – can have in electoral politics.</p>
<p>Here are five factors that contributed to the Polish election result – and could have implications for other countries faced with democratic backsliding.</p>
<h2>1. Voters showed up</h2>
<p>Poles took the elections seriously. With almost three-quarters of the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/huge-turnout-poland-decisive-elections/story?id=104004666">electorate voting (74%)</a>, the turnout was unprecedented in recent times. It was even higher than the first free elections after the fall of communism in 1989. In fact, this was the highest voter turnout since 1919, a year after <a href="https://ipn.gov.pl/en/news/9969,On-11-November-Poland-celebrated-the-National-Independence-Day.html#:%7E:text=On%2011%20November%201918%2C%20after,the%20reconstruction%20of%20Polish%20statehood.">Poland emerged as an independent country</a>. </p>
<p>Part of the reason behind the high turnout was the stakes involved. Opposition parties insisted that <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/democracy-at-stake-in-polish-elections-opposition-says/video-67102078">democracy itself</a> was at stake, while the Law and Justice Party <a href="https://apnews.com/article/poland-election-parliament-explainer-eef3abebff2f31f29ec0dadde24e71a0">depicted the election as a clear choice</a> between Poland being forced by the EU to open its borders to illegal migrants and adopt a pro-LGBTQ+ agenda, and an independent government that would secure Poland’s borders and promote Christian traditions. Voter turnout was key to the opposition’s victory.</p>
<h2>2. Women mobilized</h2>
<p>For the first time in Poland’s history, more women than men voted. <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/were-women-key-to-voting-out-polands-ruling-conservatives/a-67214867">Almost 75%</a> of eligible women voted – a 12% increase over 2019. In comparison, 73% of eligible male voters cast a ballot.</p>
<p>The election also saw a <a href="https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/19/record-number-of-female-mps-in-polands-parliament-after-elections/">record number of female candidates</a> (44%) and the largest percentage of women (30%) voted into Poland’s Sejm. </p>
<p>The growth in the women’s vote follows a period of increased feminist activism in Poland.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/362981/pdf">communist period</a> that ended in 1989, women’s political participation was not significant. Post-communist governments, however, did not provide women with the rights they <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/08/polish-women-communism-better-equality">expected or wanted</a>. </p>
<p>When PiS took office in 2015, Poland had one of the strictest abortion laws in Europe. After the ruling government tightened abortion restrictions further, Polish women took to the streets. In recent years, women have regularly protested what they perceive as the <a href="https://doi.org//10.1177/1350506814546091">anti-gender policies</a> of PiS, but little changed – at least on the surface.</p>
<p>Government restrictions and ongoing attacks on women’s organizations were having an impact on Polish women, especially younger women – and the October election provided a moment for women to have their say. A <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/were-women-key-to-voting-out-polands-ruling-conservatives/a-67214867">breakdown of the women’s vote</a> finds that many women voted for leftist and centrist parties that made women’s rights and liberalized abortion laws a priority.</p>
<h2>3. Young people mobilized</h2>
<p>Young Poles also participated in elections in record numbers, demonstrating that while young people might be seen to be <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/article/why-are-youth-dissatisfied-democracy">dissatisfied with democracy</a>, many of them still show up to vote. Among voters under 29 years of age, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/18/no-country-for-old-men-how-young-voters-helped-swing-the-elections-in-poland">69% turned out</a> compared with 46% in the previous elections in 2019 – a 22% increase. In fact, more people under 29 voted than people over 60. </p>
<p>This is partly because the ruling government had been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/21/young-voters-who-shaped-poland-election-result">particularly outspoken on issues</a> that matter to young Poles, such as LGBTQ+ rights and abortion. Meanwhile, opposition party candidates promised to make same-sex civil partnership and the legalization of abortion up to 12 weeks a priority.</p>
<h2>4. The role of civil society</h2>
<p>The number of civil society organizations is only one way to gauge the strength of civil society. PiS worked to shrink the space for civil society activism by reducing funding to certain organizations, resulting in a <a href="https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=1069123">decline in the number of groups</a>. </p>
<p>But, as I explore in my research, such efforts simultaneously pushed activism online and fueled political and social engagement in other ways that are often harder to see – such as do-it-yourself <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fhumd.2020.562682">aid for refugees</a>, volunteering and community initiatives. Seeing the elections as a “<a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/90707">make or break moment</a>,” formal groups and individuals working through informal channels visited towns, organized in parks, created leaflet campaigns and did whatever they could do to ensure that the population knew what was at stake in the election.</p>
<p>Expressing their strong opposition to the national referendum that was held on the same day of the elections, <a href="https://hfhr.pl/aktualnosci/stanowisko-organizacji-spolecznych-w-sprawie-referendum">Polish civil society organizations</a>, such as Action Democracy and the Homo Faber Association, urged people not to participate. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/poland-election-vote-720f7b81838c33ccb2865fb3bc6e0414">Exit polls</a> suggest that most Poles (60%) refused to take part in the referendum, making the results not legally binding. </p>
<h2>5. The economy matters</h2>
<p>Much of PiS’ tenure in government has coincided with significant economic growth in Poland. This allowed the government to provide monthly stipends for families to reduce child poverty, restructure the tax system to benefit the poor, and invest in rural Poland.</p>
<p>Yet earlier in 2023, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poles-feel-pinch-inflation-hits-peak-2023-03-15/">Poland’s inflation</a> was over 18%. With prices for food up by 24% and costs for housing, gas and electricity up by 22%, Poles – especially those on fixed incomes, many of whom were PiS voters – were unable to pay their bills. This helped turn Polish voters against the government. In <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65803318">June, hundreds of thousands of Poles took to the streets</a> with a variety of complaints, including inflation and rising costs. </p>
<p>Poland’s immediate political future is still a little up in the air – and years of increasingly autocratic rule has left its mark. <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/22/poland-election-eu-pis-populism-tusk-duda-germany-ukraine-russia/">Some observers worry</a> that there is no going back to a pre-populist Poland. Yet the outcome of the October election should serve as a reminder that democracy’s decline is not inevitable and can be halted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrice McMahon received funding in 2023 from the United States Department of State through the U.S. Fulbright Commission. </span></em></p>The autocratic Law and Justice Party looks set to be turfed out by a center-left coalition, which gained more than half of all votes.Patrice McMahon, Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska-LincolnLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156482023-10-18T16:02:38Z2023-10-18T16:02:38ZPeople experiencing news fatigue are less likely to be voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553747/original/file-20231013-27-r0j6ye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C61%2C5080%2C3241&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Shyntartanya</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a comprehensive analysis of news consumption across the globe, a recent report by Reuters concluded that “interest in news continues to decline, fuelling disengagement and selective news avoidance”. In the 46 countries surveyed in the report, public interest in news has dropped significantly in the UK, France, the US and Spain <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/Digital_News_Report_2023.pdf">over the eight year period from 2015 to 2023</a>.</p>
<p>The study was commissioned by the <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/">Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism</a> at the University of Oxford, which has been publishing reports on citizen media use in various countries since 2012. The fieldwork for the online surveys was done by YouGov in early 2023. They show that Britain has a particular problem.</p>
<p>The percentage of survey respondents who said that they were “extremely” or “very” interested in news in Britain fell from 70% in 2015 to 43% in 2023. A similar problem has occurred in the US, although it is not as bad as Britain. In the US 67% of respondents were “extremely” or “very” interested in the news in 2015, but this had fallen to 49% by 2023. Both represent huge changes in media consumption of news over this eight-year period.</p>
<p>As a result, large numbers of people are simply disassociating themselves from news about politics and current affairs. They have become disconnected citizens. The report points out that: “these declines in news interest are reflected in lower consumption of both traditional and online media sources in most cases”. Clearly, this is not just driven by people moving online from traditional media outlets, although this is of course happening.</p>
<p>In the Reuters Institute’s 2022 report, survey respondents gave a number of reasons why they have become disconnected from the news. Some 29% said they were “worn out by the quantity of news” and another 29% they felt “news is untrustworthy and biased”. </p>
<p>Another 36% said the news brings down their mood. These feelings have given rise to a growing group of people who actively avoid the news. In Britain 24% of respondents did this in 2017 but by 2022 it was 46%. The number of people who don’t want to know has doubled in five years.</p>
<h2>Double disillusionment?</h2>
<p>The Reuters report did not investigate the political effects of this development, which was beyond the scope of their remit. But there is a lively literature in political science about the effects of the media on political participation. In an influential book, political scientists Shanto Iyengar and Stephen Ansolabehere showed that attack adverts, which are such a feature of US political campaigns, <a href="https://politicalscience.stanford.edu/publications/going-negative-how-political-advertisements-shrink-and-polarize-electorate">demobilise people from participating</a>.</p>
<p>We can gain insights on this point by looking at data from the <a href="https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/about/national-pages/united-kingdom/english">2020 European Social Survey for Britain</a>. These are very high-quality surveys and provide accurate information on what Europeans in general think about politics and the media. One of the questions in the survey asked: “on a typical day, about how much time do you spend watching, reading or listening to news about politics and current affairs?”.</p>
<p><strong>Voting in the UK General Election Compared with Time Spent Following Politics and Current Affairs in the Media, 2020</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chart showing British people who engaged with the news are more often voters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553743/original/file-20231013-27-i4rjiz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553743/original/file-20231013-27-i4rjiz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553743/original/file-20231013-27-i4rjiz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553743/original/file-20231013-27-i4rjiz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553743/original/file-20231013-27-i4rjiz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553743/original/file-20231013-27-i4rjiz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553743/original/file-20231013-27-i4rjiz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">News fatigue and voter turnout.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/ESS</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chart shows the relationship between time spent by respondents acquiring information about politics and current affairs and their reported turnout in the previous general election. </p>
<p>There is a strong relationship between voting turnout and media usage. Only 49% of people who spent no time at all on news gathering turned out to vote while 33% of them did not vote. In fairness, 19% of this group were not eligible to vote, since the survey picked up people who are not on the electoral register. Even so, if we look at the group who spent one to two hours looking for news about politics, 91% of them voted and only 6% failed to do so. It is clear that media usage and participating in elections are closely related.</p>
<p>Further analysis shows that a similar pattern is evident in relation to other forms of democratic participation. It is people who are engaging with the news that are turning up to exercise their right to protest, for example.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chart showing that higher turnout leads to great vote share for The Conservatives." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554540/original/file-20231018-19-fxuw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554540/original/file-20231018-19-fxuw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554540/original/file-20231018-19-fxuw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554540/original/file-20231018-19-fxuw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554540/original/file-20231018-19-fxuw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554540/original/file-20231018-19-fxuw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554540/original/file-20231018-19-fxuw6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conservatives are hit by low turnout.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">P Whiteley</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Media malaise damages political participation in general and given the massive changes highlighted in the Reuter’s report it could indicate that a lower turnout should be expected in the next general election. If we examine all 21 general elections in Britain since 1945, there is a strong correlation between turnout and the Conservative vote. The more people vote, the better the Conservative party does in the election.</p>
<p>There is also a positive relationship between turnout and Labour voting, but it is significantly weaker. Both parties would be damaged by lower turnout in the next election as a result of media malaise, but the Conservatives would be damaged more than Labour.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p>More and more people are saying they don’t trust the news or can’t face engaging with it – and that appears to have political implications.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151552023-10-14T23:20:11Z2023-10-14T23:20:11ZExplainer: Australia has voted against an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. Here’s what happened<p>A majority of Australian voters have rejected the proposal to establish an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament, with the final results likely to be about 40% voting “yes” and 60% voting “no”.</p>
<h2>What was the referendum about?</h2>
<p>In this referendum, Australians were asked to vote on whether to establish an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander <a href="https://voice.gov.au/referendum-2023/referendum-question-and-constitutional-amendment">Voice</a> to Parliament. The Voice was proposed as a means of recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/explore/australias-first-peoples">First Peoples of Australia</a> in the Constitution. </p>
<p>The Voice proposal was a modest one. It was to be an advisory body for the national parliament and government. Had the referendum succeeded, Australia’s Constitution would have been amended with a new section 129: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Peoples of Australia:</p>
<p>i. there shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice</p>
<p>ii. the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples</p>
<p>iii. the Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice, including its composition, functions, powers and procedures.</p>
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<p>This proposal was drawn from the <a href="https://ulurustatement.org/the-statement/view-the-statement/">Uluru Statement from the Heart</a> from 250 Indigenous leaders, which called for <a href="https://deadlystory.com/page/culture/Annual_Days/NAIDOC_Week/NAIDOC_2019/Hey_you_Mob_it_s_NAIDOC_week#:%7E:text=The%20statement%20outlines%20a%20need,see%20below%20for%20more%20information">three phases of reform</a> - Voice, followed by Treaty and Truth -telling about Australia’s colonial history. The proposal was for constitutional change to ensure the Voice would not be abolished by government in future, as previous Indigenous bodies have been. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-to-parliament-referendum-defeated-results-at-a-glance-215366">Voice to Parliament referendum defeated: results at-a-glance</a>
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<h2>How did Australians vote?</h2>
<p>Voting is <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/publications/voting/">compulsory</a> in Australia. Every eligible Australian citizen over 18 years of age is obliged to vote in elections and referendums. Australia has one of the <a href="https://peo.gov.au/understand-our-parliament/your-questions-on-notice/questions/how-many-people-voted-in-the-last-election/#:%7E:text=According%20to%20the%20Australian%20Electoral,voter%20turnouts%20in%20the%20world.">highest rates of voter turn out</a> in the world - over 90% of those eligible have voted in every national election since compulsory voting was introduced in 1924.</p>
<p>Australia has a written <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2013Q00005">Constitution</a>. A successful referendum vote is required to <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/Powers_practice_and_procedure/Practice7/HTML/Chapter1/Constitution_alteration">change</a> the Constitution in any way. </p>
<p>To succeed, a referendum proposition requires a <a href="https://voice.gov.au/referendum-2023/how-referendum-works#:%7E:text=For%20a%20referendum%20to%20be,4%20out%20of%206%20states.">double majority</a>. This means it must be agreed to by a majority of voters, and a majority of states. Australia has six <a href="https://digital-classroom.nma.gov.au/images/map-australia-showing-states-and-territories">states</a>, so at least four must have a majority of voters in favour for a referendum to succeed. </p>
<p>Australia also has two territories - individuals in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-and-territory-ballots-will-be-counted-differently-at-the-voice-referendum-is-that-fair-212703">territories</a> contribute to the overall vote, but the territories do not count towards the majority of states. </p>
<p>It’s very difficult to achieve constitutional change in Australia. Since federation in 1901, 45 questions have been put to Australian voters in <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/referendums/referendum_dates_and_results.htm">referendums</a>. Only eight of those have succeeded. </p>
<p>In the Voice referendum, only the Australian Capital Territory voted “yes” by majority. A <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm">clear majority</a> of the national electorate voted “no”. All states returned majority “no” results.</p>
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<p>Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people constitute <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/estimates-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-australians/latest-release#:%7E:text=Data%20downloads-,Key%20statistics,Queensland%20and%20Western%20Australia%20combined.">3.8% of Australia’s population</a>. Government members claimed on ABC TV in the referendum coverage that polling booths including high proportions of Indigenous voters, for example Palm Island in Queensland, returned high “yes” votes. However, in a majoritarian democracy like Australia, such a small proportion of the national population cannot dictate the outcome of a national poll.</p>
<p>Importantly, the Voice referendum did not have unanimous support across the two main political parties in Australia. The Labor government <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-all-in-declares-an-emotional-albanese-as-he-launches-the-wording-for-the-voice-referendum-202435">announced</a> and has campaigned for “yes”. The leader of the opposition, Liberal Queensland MP <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-05/peter-dutton-voice-to-parliament-yes-no-vote-referendum/102797582">Peter Dutton</a>, campaigned strongly against the referendum proposal.</p>
<h2>What happens now?</h2>
<p>The government is bound to abide by the referendum result. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed that his government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/08/labor-wont-try-to-legislate-indigenous-voice-if-referendum-fails-albanese-says#:%7E:text=The%20prime%20minister%2C%20Anthony%20Albanese,away%20from%20the%20voice%20altogether%3F%E2%80%9D">will not seek to legislate a Voice</a> as an alternative to the constitutional model.</p>
<p>Albanese, conceding the failure of the referendum, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-14/live-updates-voice-to-parliament-referendum-latest-news/102969568">said</a>: “Tomorrow we must seek a new way forward”. He called for a renewed focus on doing better for First Peoples in Australia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-anthony-albanese-promises-to-continue-to-advance-reconciliation-despite-sweeping-defeat-of-referendum-215662">View from The Hill: Anthony Albanese promises to continue to 'advance reconciliation' despite sweeping defeat of referendum</a>
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<p>The referendum outcome represents a major loss for the government. But much more important than that will be the negative impacts of the campaign and loss on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. </p>
<p>On ABC TV, Arrernte/Luritja woman <a href="https://www.snaicc.org.au/about/contact/staff-bios/">Catherine Liddle</a> called for a renewed focus on truth-telling and building understanding of Australia’s history across the population. She said the failure of the referendum reflected a lack of understanding about the lives and experiences of Indigenous people in Australia. </p>
<p>“Yes” campaign advocates reported <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-are-tired-victorian-yes-advocates-devastated-as-no-vote-refuses-voice-20231012-p5ebse.html">devastation</a> at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/14/australian-voters-reject-proposal-for-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-at-historic-referendum">outcome</a>. Sana Nakata, writing <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-political-subjugation-of-first-nations-peoples-is-no-longer-historical-legacy-213752">here</a>, said: “now we are where we have always been, left to build our better futures on our own”.</p>
<p>Some First Nations advocates, including Victorian independent Senator <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/16/lidia-thorpe-says-australias-voice-referendum-should-be-called-off">Lidia Thorpe</a> - a Gunnai, Gunditjmara and Djab Wurrung woman - argued the Voice proposal lacked substance and that the referendum should not have been held. Advocates of a “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/article/these-progressive-no-campaigners-are-looking-beyond-the-vote-heres-what-they-want/tdyj2ilx6">progressive no</a>” vote (who felt the Voice didn’t go far enough) will continue to call for recognition of continuing First Nations sovereignty and self-determination through processes of treaty and truth-telling.</p>
<p>The information landscape for Australian voters leading up to this referendum was murky and difficult to navigate. The Australian Electoral Commission published a <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/media/disinformation-register-ref.htm">disinformation register</a>. <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/extremely-politicised-and-very-worrying-how-misinformation-about-the-voice-spread/w9sl4pzba">Misinformation and lies</a>, many circulated through social media, have influenced the decision-making of a proportion of voters. </p>
<p>It’s open to question whether constitutional change of any kind can be achieved while voters remain so exposed to multiple versions of “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org.au/sorting-fact-from-fiction-in-the-voice-to-parliament-referendum/">truth</a>”. </p>
<p>For many First Nations people, the proliferation of lies and misinformation driven by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-66470376">racism</a> throughout the Voice debate have been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-03/indigenous-mental-health-impacts-of-voice-referendum-debate/102923188">traumatising</a> and brutal.</p>
<p>Indigenous Australians’ Minister, Wiradjuri woman Linda Burney, spoke to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people after the result: “Be proud of your identity. Be proud of the 65,000 years of history and culture that you are part of”. Her <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/videos/national/linda-burney-gives-emotional-speech-following-referendum-result/clnpw6w0n009u0jp8kvgbijuy">pain</a> was patently obvious as she responded to the referendum outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Maguire is a board member of Reconciliation NSW and a volunteer for the Yes23 campaign. </span></em></p>After a bitterly fought campaign, Australians have voted against an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament by a clear majority.Amy Maguire, Associate Professor in Human Rights and International Law, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153662023-10-14T09:06:49Z2023-10-14T09:06:49ZVoice to Parliament referendum defeated: results at-a-glance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553437/original/file-20231012-22-l08xlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3994%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The latest results from The Voice to Parliament Referendum.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/uluru-rock-formation-in-central-australia-6610368/">Jonas Schallenberg, Pexels</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The referendum has been defeated, with a “no” majority called by the ABC in at least four states.</p>
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<p>The Constitution can only be changed if there is a double majority, meaning there must be a national majority of voters across all states and territories and a majority of voters in a majority of the states (at least four of the six states). The Northern Territory and ACT counts are not included in the majority of states, but do contribute to the overall national count.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-941" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/941/dd4e08488ea869eec54f30b0947f818849e69d7b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Use the map below to see how your electoral seat voted.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-942" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/942/ed0db92d836e4e3692da6724ee6e55f578867a18/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-to-parliament-referendum-has-been-heavily-defeated-nationally-and-in-all-states-213156">Voice to Parliament referendum has been heavily defeated nationally and in all states</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The latest results for the Voice to Parliament Referendum are showing a “no” majority nationally and among the states.Matt Garrow, Editorial Web DeveloperLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2075842023-09-06T12:25:58Z2023-09-06T12:25:58ZNot religious, not voting? The ‘nones’ are a powerful force in politics – but not yet a coalition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535164/original/file-20230702-192977-l8drvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2117%2C1409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Politicians all over the spectrum have long tried to appeal to religious voters. What about atheists, agnostics and nothing-in-particulars?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/atheist-checkbox-on-white-paper-with-metal-pen-royalty-free-image/1137047566?phrase=atheist+voter&adppopup=true">Y.Gurevich/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly 30% of Americans say they <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/12/14/about-three-in-ten-u-s-adults-are-now-religiously-unaffiliated/">have no religious affiliation</a>. Today the so-called “nones” represent <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/prri-2022-american-values-atlas-religious-affiliation-updates-and-trends/">about 30% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans</a> – and they are making their voices heard. <a href="https://secular.org/">Organizations lobby</a> on behalf of <a href="https://www.atheists.org/">atheists</a>, agnostics, <a href="https://americanhumanist.org/">secular humanists</a> and other nonreligious people. </p>
<p>As more people leave religious institutions, or never join them in the first place, it’s easy to assume this demographic will command more influence. But as a sociologist <a href="https://www.umb.edu/directory/evanstewart/">who studies politics and religion</a>, I wanted to know whether there was evidence that this religious change could actually make a strong political impact.</p>
<p>There are reasons to be skeptical of unaffiliated Americans’ power at the ballot box. Religious institutions have long been key for mobilizing voters, both <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/black-church-has-been-getting-souls-polls-more-60-years">on the left</a> and <a href="https://www.oah.org/tah/issues/2018/november/evangelicalism-and-politics/">the right</a>. Religiously unaffiliated people <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/#:%7E:text=While%20more%20than%20one%2Dthird,those%20ages%2065%20and%20older.">tend to be younger</a>, and younger people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.12.006">tend to vote less often</a>. What’s more, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/">exit polls</a> from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">recent elections</a> show the religiously unaffiliated may be a smaller percentage of voters than of the general population. </p>
<p>Most importantly, it’s hard to put the “unaffiliated” in a box. Only a third of them <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/12/14/about-three-in-ten-u-s-adults-are-now-religiously-unaffiliated/">identify as atheists or agnostics</a>. While there is a smaller core of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108923347">secular activists</a>, they tend to hold different views from <a href="http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/books/b9789004319301s009">the larger group</a> of people who are religiously unaffiliated, such as being more concerned about the separation of church and state. </p>
<p>By combining all unaffiliated people as “the nones,” researchers and political analysts risk missing key details about this large and diverse constituency.</p>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>In order to learn more about which parts of religious unaffiliated populations turn out to vote, I used data from the <a href="https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/">Cooperative Election Study</a>, or CES, for presidential elections in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020. The CES collects large surveys and then matches individual respondents in those surveys to validated voter turnout records.</p>
<p>These surveys were different from exit polls in some key ways. For example, according to these survey samples, overall validated voter turnout looked higher in many groups, not just the unaffiliated, than exit polls suggested. But because each survey sample had over 100,000 respondents and detailed questions about religious affiliation, they allowed me to find some important differences between smaller groups within the unaffiliated.</p>
<p><iframe id="oK8sa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oK8sa/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>My findings, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">published in June 2023 in the journal Sociology of Religion</a>, were that the unaffiliated are divided in their voter turnout: Some unaffiliated groups are more likely to vote than religiously affiliated respondents, and some are less likely.</p>
<p>People who identified as atheists and agnostics were more likely to vote than religiously affiliated respondents, especially in more recent elections. For example, after controlling for key demographic predictors of voting – like age, education and income – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">I found</a> that atheists and agnostics were each about 30% more likely to have a validated record of voting in the 2020 election than religiously affiliated respondents. </p>
<p>With those same controls, people who identified their religion as simply “nothing in particular,” <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/12/14/about-three-in-ten-u-s-adults-are-now-religiously-unaffiliated/">who are about two-thirds of the unaffiliated</a>, were actually less likely to turn out in all four elections. In the 2020 election sample, for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">I found</a> that around 7 in 10 agnostics and atheists had a validated voter turnout record, versus only about half of the “nothing in particulars.”</p>
<p>Together, these groups’ voting behaviors tend to cancel each other out. Once I controlled for other predictors of voting like age and education, “the nones” as a whole were equally likely to have a turnout record as religiously affiliated respondents.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five people with their backs to the camera vote at small booths in a room with bunting in the colors of the American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Religious and nonreligious voting patterns may not be so different after all.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/voters-voting-in-polling-place-royalty-free-image/138711450?phrase=young+voters&adppopup=true">Hill Street Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>2024 and beyond</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/after-trump-christian-nationalist-ideas-are-going-mainstream-despite-a-history-of-violence-188055">Concern about growing Christian nationalism</a>, which advocates for fusing national identity and political power with Christian beliefs, has put a spotlight on religion’s role in <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-god-strategy-9780195326413?cc=us&lang=en&">right-wing advocacy</a>. </p>
<p>Yet religion does not line up neatly with one party. The <a href="https://religionnews.com/2023/04/21/christian-nationalists-have-provoked-a-pluralist-resistance/">political left also boasts a diverse coalition of religious groups</a>, and there are many Republican voters for whom religion is not important. </p>
<p>If the percentage of people without a religious affiliation continues to rise, both Republicans and Democrats will have to think more creatively and intentionally about how to appeal to these voters. My research shows that neither party can take the unaffiliated for granted nor treat them as a single, unified group. Instead, politicians and analysts will need to think more specifically about what motivates people to vote, and particularly what policies encourage voting among young adults.</p>
<p>For example, some activist groups talk about “<a href="https://secular.org/grassroots/valuesvoter/#:%7E:text=Secular%20Values%20Voter%20is%20a,values%20for%20which%20they%20stand.">the secular values voter</a>:” someone who is increasingly motivated to vote by concern about separation of church and state. I did find evidence that the average atheist or agnostic is about 30% more likely to turn out than the average religiously affiliated voter, lending some support to the secular values voter story. At the same time, that description does not fit <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108923347">all the “nones</a>.”</p>
<p>Instead of focusing on America’s declining religious affiliation, it may be more helpful to focus on the country’s <a href="https://www.interfaithamerica.org/">increasing religious diversity</a>, especially because many unaffiliated people still report having religious and spiritual beliefs and practices. Faith communities have historically been important sites for political organizing. Today, though, motivating and empowering voters might mean looking across a broader set of community institutions to find them.</p>
<h2>Rethinking assumptions</h2>
<p>There is good news in these findings for everyone, regardless of their political leanings. <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bowling-Alone-Revised-and-Updated/Robert-D-Putnam/9780743219037">Social science theories from the 1990s and 2000s argued</a> that leaving religion was part of a larger trend in declining civic engagement, like voting and volunteering, but that may not be the case. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">According to my research</a>, it was actually unaffiliated respondents who reported still attending religious services who were least likely to vote. Their turnout rates were lower than both frequently attending religious affiliates and unaffiliated people who never attended.</p>
<p>This finding matches up with previous research on religion, spirituality and other kinds of civic engagement. Sociologists <a href="https://www.cla.purdue.edu/directory/profiles/jacqui-frost.html">Jacqui Frost</a> and <a href="https://cla.umn.edu/about/directory/profile/edgell">Penny Edgell</a>, for example, found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0899764017746251">a similar pattern in volunteering</a> among religiously unaffiliated respondents. In a previous study, sociologist <a href="https://www.hamilton.edu/academics/our-faculty/directory/faculty-detail/jaime-lee-kucinskas">Jaime Kucinskas</a> and I found that spiritual practices like meditation and yoga were <a href="https://theconversation.com/yoga-versus-democracy-what-survey-data-says-about-spiritual-americans-political-behavior-187960">just as strongly associated with political behavior</a> as religious practices like church attendance. Across these studies, it looks like disengagement from formal religion is not necessarily linked to political disengagement.</p>
<p>As the religious landscape changes, new potential voters may be ready to engage – if political leadership can enact policies that help them turn out, and inspire them to turn out, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nonreligious voters are poised to make an impact, but sweeping statements about the ‘nones’ don’t tell the full story.Evan Stewart, Assistant Professor of Sociology, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2119892023-09-05T12:31:38Z2023-09-05T12:31:38ZPaper ballots are good, but accurately hand-counting them all is next to impossible<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545062/original/file-20230828-25-c4lypc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C157%2C5861%2C3737&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maricopa County, Ariz., conducted a hand recount of the 2020 elections for president and U.S. Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Elections2024MohaveCounty/0db09bc8d43e40ddaf56cfeb6dd42344/photo">AP Photo/Matt York, Pool</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among people, mostly Republicans, who remain the most suspicious of the 2020 presidential election results, there’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/04/trump-hand-counted-ballots-dominion-machines/">something of a movement to return to the days when election ballots in the United States were counted by hand</a>. One 67,000-person county in Georgia recently <a href="https://www.governing.com/policy/election-skeptics-push-georgia-county-to-count-ballots-by-hand">required a hand count</a> of all ballots, for instance. But they, and others seeking similar changes around the country, are likely to find themselves disappointed – either by failure to mandate hand-counting or by how election results are handled if they succeed.</p>
<p>Requiring hand-counting of all ballots would take elections back many decades to practices that were common in the mid-1800s. In that era, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/american-ballot-box-in-the-midnineteenth-century/CAED117EB944D09422FC8AB82367BE39">political parties produced a variety of paper “tickets” that were counted at polling places on election night</a>. When states started taking responsibility for producing ballots in the late 19th century, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.053007.145205">automated machines began to be used for both casting and tabulating votes</a>.</p>
<p>In a 1930s review of voting processes, political scientist Joseph Harris concluded that “<a href="https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/itl/vote/chapter6.pdf">[p]robably no part of election administration is conducted so poorly as the count of ballots</a>.” Several of the improvements he suggested were in fact adopted after World War II, helped along by new technologies that were faster, more consistent and less prone to error – like optical scanning systems. Today, the overwhelmingly dominant technology <a href="https://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#mode/navigate/map/ppEquip/mapType/normal/year/2024">uses paper marked ballots that are tabulated by scanner machines</a>.</p>
<p>It is easy to see why a hand-count system seems appealing to many people today. Having ballots scrutinized in person by representatives from the parties provides obvious transparency and accountability. The true result of the infamous 2000 Bush-Gore contest in Florida <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/bush-gore-2000-election-results-studies/index.html">remains in doubt</a>, in part, because a hand recount of this kind was not ultimately conducted. States such as Georgia and Wisconsin have undergone hand recounts of the votes cast in their presidential elections. And other democracies such as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-business-elections-france-e06fab5cde84f23d682013e1661caf35">France</a> hand-count ballots. In short, it seems possible.</p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-GjN8kAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of elections</a>, I know that despite the intuitive appeal of people physically counting pieces of paper, there are two good reasons to avoid hand-counting ballots: speed and accuracy.</p>
<h2>Hand counting is slower</h2>
<p>It takes a long time to count ballots by hand. Counters must pause for regular breaks to stay rested and sharp. Counting must periodically stop to resolve challenges and questions from observers. It is painstaking work. But, in part thanks to mechanical and technological counting systems, Americans have come to expect election results to be available very quickly, even just a few hours after the polls close.</p>
<p>Most U.S. election ballots are long and would require counting of many contests, from president down to county commissioner and probate judge. In other countries where hand counting is used, there is typically <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/french-election-results-faster-united-states/">just one race on the ballot</a>. But in many parts of the U.S., it is common for there to be <a href="https://www.vote411.org/ballot">a dozen contests or many more</a> during each election – and on a single piece of paper. Sometimes a ballot paper has two columns for voting, with candidates or ballot questions on both the front and the back of the ballot page.</p>
<p>In recent high-profile recounts, usually only one office is being recounted, so the rest of the ballot is ignored. When Georgia officials recounted the 2020 presidential race, it <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/georgia-election-recount/2020/11/14/7fc1c82e-25c9-11eb-952e-0c475972cfc0_story.html">required thousands of ballot counters working long shifts that spanned multiple days</a> for just that one contest. Even with such a dedicated effort, the hand count took almost a week to complete – and <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/election/georgia-recount-costs-some-counties-hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars/YRMXKBAMTVG3ZMMQ4PW347B5S4/">cost the state millions of dollars</a>.</p>
<p>A hand count of more than one contest multiplies the amount of time needed to produce a preliminary election result. It might seem like having 10 races on the ballot would take about 10 times as long as counting a single contest. However, it is likely to take much longer than that. </p>
<p>This is because ballots are printed for very small groups of voters, and include only the specific legislative and municipal districts in which they live. Recounting a single statewide election is one thing, but hand-counting the entire ballot actually requires a different, more cumbersome procedure because <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/how-ballot-tabulators-improve-elections/">hundreds or thousands of combinations of other contests need to be broken out</a>. If only a presidential race is being counted, workers can use a simpler “stack and count” procedure to make piles of votes for each candidate. But if multiple races are being counted, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2010.0098">a more complex “read and mark” procedure is required</a>. The reader must call out each race - from president down to probate judge – marked on the ballot so that other workers can keep tallies. This process requires more people and more time. </p>
<h2>Hand counting is less accurate</h2>
<p>Even if the public and the candidates were willing to tolerate the slowness of a hand count, its <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/elj.2017.0440">lower level of accuracy</a> is a serious problem. The point, after all, is to get the result right.</p>
<p>Humans are better than machines at many tasks, but people are not good at highly repetitive tasks such as ballot counting that require extreme accuracy. Humans reviewing thousands of ballots become tired and make many different kinds of mistakes, such as losing track of their counts.</p>
<p>In contrast, dedicated tabulator machines, which are used after voters have marked their ballots, are excellent at counting. The tabulators used in most election districts around the country are optical scanners that read standardized ballots and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00321.x">have lower error rates than most other technologies</a>. More importantly, detailed data from recounts shows that scanners and other tabulation devices are significantly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2017.0440">more accurate than counting the same ballots by hand</a>.</p>
<h2>A place for hand counts</h2>
<p>Although hand-counting ballots on election night does not make sense in terms of speed or accuracy, there are parts of the election process where hand counts are extremely helpful.</p>
<p>Most states conduct <a href="https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/bestpractices/Election_Audits_Across_the_United_States.pdf">post-election audits</a> that review ballots to ensure that they were correctly tabulated. Recounts after close elections also frequently entail human review of ballots to verify the initial results. </p>
<p>In both of these situations, many of the problems of hand-counting are rendered irrelevant. For instance, many recounts focus on small batches of ballots rather than the full statewide collection of votes. Recounts also typically focus on a single contest and do not require a review of the entire ballot. With both audits and recounts, the speed of the count is not as important, so most participants are willing to wait a bit longer to verify the election night counts.</p>
<p>Nearly every voter in the next U.S. presidential election will be casting votes either on paper or on an electronic machine that has a paper backup. And almost all of those ballots will be counted by a machine. This approach balances security, accuracy, speed and voter confidence – and still allows for selected hand counts after election day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211989/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry C. Burden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hand-counting every ballot might sound like a great idea, but it’s both slower and less accurate than machine-counting votes.Barry C. Burden, Professor of Political Science, Director of the Elections Research Center, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105862023-08-07T12:42:18Z2023-08-07T12:42:18ZRe-imagining democracy for the 21st century, possibly without the trappings of the 18th century<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540545/original/file-20230801-17-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C58%2C6490%2C3434&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If people were dropped into a new situation tomorrow, how would they choose to govern themselves?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/metaverse-virtual-reality-futuristic-web3-internet-royalty-free-image/1399085756">Just_Super/iStock / Getty Images Plus via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine that we’ve all – all of us, all of society – landed on some alien planet, and we have to form a government: clean slate. We don’t have any legacy systems from the U.S. or any other country. We don’t have any special or unique interests to perturb our thinking. </p>
<p>How would we govern ourselves?</p>
<p>It’s unlikely that we would use the systems we have today. The modern representative democracy was the best form of government that mid-18th-century technology could conceive of. The 21st century is a different place scientifically, technically and socially.</p>
<p>For example, the mid-18th-century democracies were designed under the assumption that both travel and communications were hard. Does it still make sense for all of us living in the same place to organize every few years and choose one of us to go to a big room far away and create laws in our name?</p>
<p>Representative districts are organized around geography, because that’s the only way that made sense 200-plus years ago. But we don’t have to do it that way. We can organize representation by age: one representative for the 31-year-olds, another for the 32-year-olds, and so on. We can organize representation randomly: by birthday, perhaps. We can organize any way we want.</p>
<p>U.S. citizens currently elect people for terms ranging from two to six years. Is 10 years better? Is 10 days better? Again, we have more technology and therefor more options.</p>
<p>Indeed, as a <a href="https://www.schneier.com/">technologist</a> who studies complex systems and their <a href="https://www.schneier.com/books/a-hackers-mind/">security</a>, I believe the very idea of representative government is a hack to get around the technological limitations of the past. Voting at scale is easier now than it was 200 year ago. Certainly we don’t want to all have to vote on every amendment to every bill, but what’s the optimal balance between votes made in our name and ballot measures that we all vote on?</p>
<h2>Rethinking the options</h2>
<p>In December 2022, I organized a <a href="https://www.schneier.com/iword/2022">workshop</a> to discuss these and other questions. I brought together <a href="https://www.schneier.com/iword/attendees/">50 people</a> from around the world: political scientists, economists, law professors, AI experts, activists, government officials, historians, science fiction writers and more. We spent <a href="https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2022/12/reimagining-democracy.html">two days talking</a> about these ideas. Several themes emerged from the event.</p>
<p>Misinformation and propaganda were themes, of course – and the inability to engage in rational policy discussions when people can’t agree on the facts. </p>
<p>Another theme was the harms of creating a political system whose primary goals are economic. Given the ability to start over, would anyone create a system of government that optimizes the near-term financial interest of the wealthiest few? Or whose laws benefit corporations at the expense of people?</p>
<p>Another theme was capitalism, and how it is or isn’t intertwined with democracy. And while the modern market economy made a lot of sense in the industrial age, it’s starting to fray in the information age. What comes after capitalism, and how does it affect how we govern ourselves?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An overhead view shows a busy road between buildings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540555/original/file-20230801-37936-oma1fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artificial intelligence may be good at smoothing traffic flow – but is it good at governing?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/view-from-above-of-road-in-chinatown-at-twilight-royalty-free-image/1336925675">Busà Photography, Moment via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A role for artificial intelligence?</h2>
<p>Many participants examined the effects of technology, especially artificial intelligence. We looked at whether – and when – we might be comfortable ceding power to an AI. Sometimes it’s easy. I’m happy for an AI to figure out the optimal timing of traffic lights to ensure the smoothest flow of cars through the city. When will we be able to say the same thing about setting interest rates? Or designing tax policies? </p>
<p>How would we feel about an AI device in our pocket that voted in our name, thousands of times per day, based on preferences that it inferred from our actions? If an AI system could determine optimal policy solutions that balanced every voter’s preferences, would it still make sense to have representatives? Maybe we should vote directly for ideas and goals instead, and leave the details to the computers. On the other hand, technological solutionism <a href="https://www.publicbooks.org/the-folly-of-technological-solutionism-an-interview-with-evgeny-morozov/">regularly fails</a>.</p>
<h2>Choosing representatives</h2>
<p>Scale was another theme. The size of modern governments reflects the technology at the time of their founding. European countries and the early American states are a particular size because that’s what was governable in the 18th and 19th centuries. Larger governments – the U.S. as a whole, the European Union – reflect a world in which travel and communications are easier. The problems we have today are primarily either local, at the scale of cities and towns, or global – even if they are currently regulated at state, regional or national levels. This mismatch is especially acute when we try to tackle global problems. In the future, do we really have a need for political units the size of France or Virginia? Or is it a mixture of scales that we really need, one that moves effectively between the local and the global?</p>
<p>As to other forms of democracy, we discussed one from history and another made possible by today’s technology.</p>
<p><a href="https://harvardpolitics.com/sortition-in-america/">Sortition</a> is a system of choosing political officials randomly to deliberate on a particular issue. We use it today when we pick juries, but both the ancient Greeks and some cities in Renaissance Italy used it to select major political officials. Today, several countries – largely in Europe – are using sortition for some policy decisions. We might randomly choose a few hundred people, representative of the population, to spend a few weeks being briefed by experts and debating the problem – and then decide on environmental regulations, or a budget, or pretty much anything.</p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/organizer-sandbox/liquid-democracy-true-democracy-for-the-21st-century-7c66f5e53b6f">Liquid democracy</a> does away with elections altogether. Everyone has a vote, and they can keep the power to cast it themselves or assign it to another person as a proxy. There are no set elections; anyone can reassign their proxy at any time. And there’s no reason to make this assignment all or nothing. Perhaps proxies could specialize: one set of people focused on economic issues, another group on health and a third bunch on national defense. Then regular people could assign their votes to whichever of the proxies most closely matched their views on each individual matter – or step forward with their own views and begin collecting proxy support from other people.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A stone marked with regular indentations." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540546/original/file-20230801-23-ljeulp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This item, called a kleroterion, was used to randomly select people for jury service in ancient Athens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGMA_Kleroterion.jpg">Marsyas via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who gets a voice?</h2>
<p>This all brings up another question: Who gets to participate? And, more generally, whose interests are taken into account? Early democracies were really nothing of the sort: They limited participation by gender, race and land ownership. </p>
<p>We should debate lowering the voting age, but even without voting we recognize that children too young to vote have rights – and, in some cases, so do other species. Should future generations get a “voice,” whatever that means? What about nonhumans or whole ecosystems?</p>
<p>Should everyone get the same voice? Right now in the U.S., the outsize effect of money in politics gives the wealthy disproportionate influence. Should we encode that explicitly? Maybe younger people should get a more powerful vote than everyone else. Or maybe older people should.</p>
<p>Those questions lead to ones about the limits of democracy. All democracies have boundaries limiting what the majority can decide. We all have rights: the things that cannot be taken away from us. We cannot vote to put someone in jail, for example. </p>
<p>But while we can’t vote a particular publication out of existence, we can to some degree regulate speech. In this hypothetical community, what are our rights as individuals? What are the rights of society that supersede those of individuals?</p>
<h2>Reducing the risk of failure</h2>
<p>Personally, I was most interested in how these systems fail. As a security technologist, I study how complex systems are subverted – <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393866667">hacked, in my parlance</a> – for the benefit of a few at the expense of the many. Think tax loopholes, or tricks to avoid government regulation. I want any government system to be resilient in the face of that kind of trickery.</p>
<p>Or, to put it another way, I want the interests of each individual to align with the interests of the group <a href="https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2023/05/rethinking-democracy-for-the-age-of-ai.html">at every level</a>. We’ve never had a system of government with that property before – even equal protection guarantees and First Amendment rights exist in a competitive framework that puts individuals’ interests in opposition to one another. But – in the age of such existential risks as climate and biotechnology and maybe AI – aligning interests is more important than ever.</p>
<p>Our workshop didn’t produce any answers; that wasn’t the point. Our current discourse is filled with suggestions on how to patch our political system. People regularly debate changes to the Electoral College, or the process of creating voting districts, or term limits. But those are incremental changes. </p>
<p>It’s hard to find people who are thinking more radically: looking beyond the horizon for what’s possible eventually. And while true innovation in politics is a lot harder than innovation in technology, especially without a violent revolution forcing change, it’s something that we as a species are going to have to get good at – one way or another.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Schneier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The modern representative democracy was the best form of government mid-18th-century technology could invent. The 21st century is a different place scientifically, technically and socially.Bruce Schneier, Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2038302023-07-10T12:29:27Z2023-07-10T12:29:27ZWhy do voters have to pick a Republican or a Democrat in the US?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533744/original/file-20230623-25-t55j78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters often believe they only have two choices in American elections, even when multiple candidates appear on a ballot. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/democrat-donkey-standing-against-republican-royalty-free-image/1301850016?adppopup=true">OsakaWayne Studios/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Why does it have to be Democrat vs. Republican in elections? Why can’t it be Republican vs. Republican or Democrat vs. Democrat? – Gianna, age 13, Phoenix, Arizona</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>Americans are used to having a lot of choices. What to wear today? What to eat? What to read? </p>
<p>Yet in so many elections – when picking a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html">president</a>, state <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia-governor.html">governor</a> or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-california-mayor-los-angeles.html">mayor</a> – we seem to have only two choices: Vote for the Democrat or the Republican. </p>
<p>Why does the United States have a two-party political system? </p>
<p>As a <a href="http://www.christopherjdevine.com/">political scientist</a> who studies <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/16/can-floridas-recount-be-done-fairly-maybe-heres-what-makes-the-difference/">political</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/15/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-how-third-party-candidates-did-in-2016/">parties</a> – particularly the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0011">Libertarian</a> <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700629282/beyond-donkeys-and-elephants/">Party</a> – I can tell you there are other options. </p>
<h2>Why do we have a two-party system?</h2>
<p>Political scientists like me have a simple explanation for the United States’ two-party system: <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/political-parties-their-organization-and-activity-in-the-modern-state/oclc/983396">Duverger’s</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpBRGXK-QNs">law</a>, named after French political scientist Maurice Duverger. It states that only two major parties will emerge whenever elections follow a set of rules known as single-winner plurality voting. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Single-winner_system">Single-winner</a> means only one candidate can win a given election. Plurality voting means whoever gets the most votes wins. Under this system, a party is most likely to win if it runs (or nominates) only one candidate rather than allowing party supporters to split their votes among multiple candidates. </p>
<p>Many voters who prefer an independent or minor-party candidate might decide that it would be more practical to choose among the major-party candidates who have better odds of winning the election. Thus, even when more than two candidates appear on a ballot, voters often believe that they only have two choices: the Republican or Democrat. </p>
<p>Think of it this way: Suppose a teacher threw a class party and agreed to order whatever food the students wanted. There are just two rules: The teacher will order only one food item for the whole class (single-winner), and whichever food gets the most votes wins (plurality vote). Rather than 10 pizza lovers splitting their vote with six for cheese and four for pepperoni – leaving seven ice cream fans to scoop up the victory – they can unite behind one pizza flavor and win. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white ballot shows choices for Republican, Democrat and Libertarian." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Republicans and Democrats have finished first or second in every presidential election since 1852 except for one.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-voting-ballot-royalty-free-image/1368205704?adppopup=true">Tetra Images via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The same logic explains why the U.S. has a two-party system. When there can be only one winner, and the winner is whoever gets the most votes, people with similar but not identical preferences have good reason to find common ground and work together – or else they’ll lose. They must try to build a coalition of voters that is bigger than any other. In turn, that group’s opponents will try to counter by enlarging their own coalition. </p>
<p>Thus, the rules for voting dictate that we end up with two large “parties” competing to be big enough to win the next election. While other options exist, many voters decide to pick between the only two that can win.</p>
<h2>It doesn’t have to be Republican vs. Democrat</h2>
<p>While a Democrat or Republican wins most elections in the United States, that doesn’t mean voters can only have two choices. Consider these three points.</p>
<p>First, the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> does not allow for only two political parties. In fact, the Constitution says nothing at all about parties. Many of the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21/pdf/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21.pdf">Founding</a> <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-14-02-0402">Fathers</a> were skeptical of such “<a href="https://guides.loc.gov/federalist-papers/text-1-10#s-lg-box-wrapper-25493273">factions</a>,” fearing that they would divide the American people and serve the interests of ambitious politicians. Yet many of those same visionaries soon helped to form the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/duel-federalist-and-republican-party/">first political parties</a>, after realizing the importance of coordinating with like-minded people to win elections and advance a common policy agenda. With a <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1820">few</a> <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1860">brief</a> <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1912">exceptions</a>, the United States has had a two-party system ever since. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Voters cast their ballots at separate cubicles behind a box labeled Place Ballots Here." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. Constitution does not state that there only has be two political parties in presidential or other elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/voters-voting-in-polling-place-royalty-free-image/142021136?phrase=ballot&adppopup=true">Hill Street Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Second, plenty of candidates run for office every year as something other than a Republican or Democrat. These include <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Independent">independents</a> who are not affiliated with any party or <a href="https://www.politics1.com/parties.htm">minor-party</a> nominees – for instance, from the Libertarian or Green Party. It’s just that these candidates <a href="https://fairvote.org/a_history_of_independent_presidential_candidates/">typically do not garner many votes</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Bernie_Sanders">rarely</a> win <a href="https://my.lp.org/civicrm/?civiwp=CiviCRM&q=civicrm/profile&gid=37&force=1&crmRowCount=100&reset=1">an election</a>. </p>
<p>Take the nation’s third-largest political party, the Libertarian Party. As <a href="https://udayton.edu/news/articles/2020/05/libertarian_party.php">my research</a> shows, Libertarians generally agree with the Republican Party on economic issues and the Democratic Party on social issues. This makes the Libertarian Party appealing to some voters who consider themselves <a href="https://time.com/4483779/gary-johnson-aleppo-transcript">fiscally conservative and socially liberal</a>. </p>
<p>Third, in states such as California that have a <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Top-two_primary">top-two primary</a> system, elections sometimes come down to two candidates from the same party. This process begins with an open primary in which voters may choose among multiple candidates from various parties at the same time. The top two vote-getters go on to the general election months later – even if they are both <a href="https://www.losaltosonline.com/news/congressional-candidates-eshoo-kumar-debate-who-is-really-getting-things-done/article_7c377f54-5499-11ed-a5e2-bf4226bef394.html">Democrats</a> or <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-voter-guide-2022/state-assembly/assembly-races/#hot-district-34">Republicans</a>. </p>
<p>Other states, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-house-district-2">Maine</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-alaska-us-house-district-1.html">Alaska</a>, use <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3crCblDahy8">ranked-choice voting</a>. This system <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ranked-choice-voting-a-political-scientist-explains-165055">allows voters to rank all candidates</a> – Democratic, Republican, independent or minor party – from their favorite to least favorite on the same ballot. The winner is whichever candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, either at first or after <a href="https://theconversation.com/maine-congressional-election-an-important-test-of-ranked-choice-voting-106960">eliminating the last-place finisher and reallocating</a> that candidate’s voters to their second-choice candidates. </p>
<p>So voters often do have more options than simply Democrat vs. Republican. The problem is that people feel as if only one party or the other has a chance to win – and cast their votes accordingly. It all comes down to the rules for running elections. If you want more choices, you’ll have to change those rules. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The United States has a two-party political system because of single-winner plurality voting.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087082023-06-30T22:35:33Z2023-06-30T22:35:33ZCambodia PM Hun Sen will shut down opposition on election day – even if he can no longer threaten voters on Facebook<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535079/original/file-20230630-14093-3ojj3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5746%2C3879&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cambodian PM Hun Sen takes a selfie -- but where will he post it now? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-takes-selfies-with-a-news-photo/1258807502?adppopup=true">Rang Xhhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen will no longer be able to use his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/world/asia/cambodia-hun-sen-meta-facebook.html">Facebook page</a> to air threats of violence against opposition supporters – but that doesn’t mean he can’t still suppress their vote as the country <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/world/asia/cambodia-hun-sen-meta-facebook.html">prepares for a general election</a>.</p>
<p>On June 30, 2023, the Facebook page of Hun Sen – who has ruled the country as leader of the Cambodian People’s Party for almost four decades – <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66062752">appeared to have been deleted</a>. It wasn’t immediately clear whether <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66062752">Hun Sen had removed the page</a> or Meta had taken it down. But it follows a <a href="https://www.oversightboard.com/news/656303619335474-oversight-board-overturns-meta-s-decision-in-cambodian-prime-minister-case/">recommendation by the oversight board</a> of Facebook’s parent company to “immediately suspend Hun Sen’s Facebook page and Instagram account for six months” over a video in which he calls on political opponents who allege vote-rigging to choose between the “legal system” and “a bat.” In the video posted on Facebook on Jan. 9, Hun Sen also threatens to “gather CPP people to protest and beat (opposition) up.”</p>
<p>The decision comes as a slap in the face for Hun Sen, who <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-huge-facebook-fan-100535327">had regularly posted on Facebook</a> to his 14 million followers. But as an <a href="https://thunderbird.asu.edu/about/people/staff-faculty/sophal-ear">expert on Cambodian politics</a>, I know it will do little to affect the result of the general election scheduled for July 23, 2023. Cambodia has had Hun Sen as prime minister <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-hun-sen-hun-manet-prime-minister-0095b3362ca2d5af4f14dd77c76ef351">for 38 years</a>. And recent events have only tightened Hun Sen’s grip on power.</p>
<h2>Many parties, no opposition</h2>
<p>Voters heading to the polls will again be presented with a lack of real choice – as has been the case in the six national parliamentary ballots held since <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44966916">nominally democratic elections were restored</a> in 1993.</p>
<p>It isn’t that there won’t be many parties that voters will be able to choose among on July 23. In fact, there will be numerous parties on the ballot, along with the ruling Cambodian People’s Party. In the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/29/cambodia-hun-sen-re-elected-in-landslide-victory-after-brutal-crackdown">2018 national election</a> there were 19 parties other than the CPP.</p>
<p>The problem for democracy watchers is that the list of parties allowed to run does not include the main opposition party, the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/cambodia-national-rescue-party-cnrp/">Cambodia National Rescue Party</a>. The CNRP was conveniently <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2017-12-06/cambodia-supreme-court-dissolves-main-opposition-party/">dissolved on Nov. 16, 2017</a>, by order of the Cambodian Supreme Court – which has as its head a permanent committee member of Hun Sen’s CPP.</p>
<p>Further, the Candle Light Party – the last vestige of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-opposition-party-election-hun-sen-63659ff8f2de992d84d2be748afbab8b">real, credible opposition in Cambodia</a> – was not permitted to register for the forthcoming election for bureaucratic reasons. The missing paperwork that prevented registration is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-election-candlelight-party-deny-registration-7436b0572eefb9b5be3fa724d3cb2fcb">believed by CLP supporters</a> to have been taken during a police raid on opposition headquarters years ago.</p>
<p>These measures build on decades in which Hun Sen and his ruling CPP have <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/141921/how-hun-sen-killed-democracy-in-cambodia">removed real choice</a> from Cambodian ballots. And for Hun Sen and the CPP it has been effective: In the last election, held in 2018, the CPP <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/7/30/cambodians-spoil-ballots-to-protest-poll-critics-labelled-a-sham">garnered 77% of the vote</a> and took all 123 seats in the National Assembly.</p>
<h2>Khmer Rouge commander to autocratic leader</h2>
<p>Hun Sen rose to power after being installed as deputy prime minister and foreign minister by the Vietnamese forces that <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/pol-pot-overthrown">liberated Cambodia in 1979</a> from the Khmer Rouge – a murderous regime in which <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/01/12/30-years-hun-sen/violence-repression-and-corruption-cambodia">Hun Sen served as a commander</a> – and then occupied the country for a decade.</p>
<p>With his country still under Vietnamese occupation, Hun Sen became prime minister in 1985 after his predecessor, Chan Sy, died in office. Since then, he has used the power of incumbency – along with a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/09/05/un-office-says-hun-sen-forces-executed-40/20d602e8-9078-41eb-8c34-2e385e86bcc7/">large dose of brute force</a> – to remain in office. </p>
<p>Even when the CPP <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/06/11/phnom-penh-rejects-results-of-election/c43a7f1e-abcf-4ebd-b3b2-fe757f96f930/">lost the popular vote in 1993</a>, Hun Sen was able to elbow his way into a prime ministership-sharing position as “second prime minister” with equal power to the “first prime minister,” Prince <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-cambodian-prime-minister-prince-norodom-ranariddh-has-died-information-2021-11-28/">Norodom Ranariddh</a>, in a deal engineered by Ranariddh’s father, King Norodom Sihanouk.</p>
<p>After falling out with his co-premier, Hun Sen <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2007/07/27/cambodia-july-1997-shock-and-aftermath">orchestrated a coup in 1997</a> and replaced Norodom Ranariddh. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00049910050007032">an election the following year</a>, Hun Sen resumed the role of sole prime minister and embarked on a campaign of repression – arranging for political enemies to be <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/01/12/30-years-hun-sen/violence-repression-and-corruption-cambodia">arrested, jailed and sometimes exiled</a>.</p>
<p>He let his guard down in 2012 by allowing opposition leaders Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy to <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/lcwaN0008472/">form the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party</a>. The CNRP came within a whisker of defeating the CPP in the 2013 election – some might even argue that it did, but for who <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-election-count/cambodia-election-crisis-deepens-as-opposition-rejects-results-idUSBRE97B02I20130812">controlled the counting of the votes</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, attempts to mount opposition to the CPP have been further blunted by the fact that Cambodia’s economy and society have undergone remarkable change – allowing Hun Sen to <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/prime-minister-hun-sen-shares-message-of-economic-growth--covid-response-success-with-north-american-diaspora-301546659.html">claim credit</a> as <a href="https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501245617/cambodias-economy-resilient-despite-external-factors-says-pm-hun-sen/">a sound manager of the economy</a>. Until the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia’s annual gross domestic product growth averaged nearly 8% <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/cambodia/overview">from 1998 through 2019</a>. Meanwhile, gross national income based on an average individual’s purchasing power <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=KH">has also grown sixfold</a> since 1995, from US$760 to $5,080.</p>
<p>It has come at a cost though. Economic and infrastructure growth has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/cambodia-protests/cambodian-farmers-rise-up-over-land-grabbing-idINSGE62I07I20100319">on the back of a land grab</a> that has disadvantaged rural farmers. I heard of one farmer who described economic development as meaning “they build a road and steal my land.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men in hard hats shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen shakes hands with China’s ambassador to Cambodia, Wang Wentian.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-shakes-hands-with-chinas-news-photo/1258495631?adppopup=true">Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And frequently that road has been Chinese-built with loans that the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/cambodia-seeks-more-loans-from-beijing-amid-fears-of-debt-trap-/6943062.html">Cambodian people and their progeny will have to repay</a>. </p>
<h2>From autocracy to nepotocracy?</h2>
<p>Yet, Hun Sen is unwilling to open his record to the scrutiny of voters or a free press.</p>
<p>In advance of the July 23 vote, the government has cracked down on independent media. One of the last truly independent outlets, the Voice of Democracy, was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64621595">shuttered by Hun Sen</a>. Its crime? To publish a story reporting that the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hun-sen-s-eldest-son-emerges-as-likely-successor-in-cambodia/7118136.html">prime minister’s son and heir apparent</a> signed, on behalf of his father, an official government donation to Turkey after the earthquake. Only the prime minister is allowed to sign off on foreign aid packages, and Hun Sen said the report had damaged the government’s reputation.</p>
<p>The source had been a senior government official. Yet, Voice of Democracy was nonetheless blamed and told to apologize, which it did, but then was still shuttered.</p>
<p>While Hun Sen has been successful in controlling the media and suppressing opposition in Cambodia, he is unable to prevent international scrutiny and sanction.</p>
<p>Cambodia’s anti-democratic rule and human rights abuses have been <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230310IPR77236/human-rights-breaches-in-iran-tunisia-and-cambodia">condemned by the European Union</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-cambodia-politics-idAFKBN1DE2LY">the White House</a> and <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/03/cambodia-un-experts-condemn-verdict-against-opposition-leader-kem-sokha">the United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>Even prior to the most recent crackdown on opposition parties and independent press, the U.S. had <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0475">placed some Cambodian generals on the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability list</a>, used to sanction “perpetrators of serious human rights abuse and corruption around the world.” The EU, for its part, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_1469">cut by 20% the number of Cambodian goods eligible for zero duty imports</a> over human rights concerns – a move that will cost Cambodia an estimated 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in annual revenue.</p>
<p>But such moves have done little to nudge Cambodia toward democratic practices – and neither will Facebook’s decision to deprive him of a social media account.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophal Ear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social media account of Cambodia’s long-serving leader was deleted amid a spat with Facebook over videoed threats of violence against opposition supporters.Sophal Ear, Associate Professor in the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085362023-06-30T13:09:22Z2023-06-30T13:09:22ZSierra Leone election: voter trust has been shaken, and will need to be regained<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534420/original/file-20230627-19-x4x237.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President of the Electoral Commission of Sierra Leone, Mohamed Konneh announcing partial election results in Freetown on June 26, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Wessels/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Julius Maada Bio, a 59-year-old former soldier, was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/27/africa/maada-bio-reelected-sierra-leone-intl/index.html#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CBy%20the%20powers%20vested%20in,Chief%20Electoral%20Commissioner%20Mohamed%20Konneh.&text=Just%20hours%20after%20the%20results,their%20%E2%80%9Ctrust%20and%20dedication.%E2%80%9D">sworn in</a> for his second and final five-year term as president of Sierra Leone on 27 June. With <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/sierra-leonean-president-bio-wins-reelection-with-56-of-votes?srnd=fixed-income#xj4y7vzkg">56%</a> of votes cast in the election on 24 June, Bio was declared winner ahead of his main rival, Samura Kamara, who polled 41%.</em> </p>
<p><em>Kamara rejected the result and international election observers have highlighted some problems with the way votes were counted. There has been relative calm across Sierra Leone since Bio was sworn in. Earlier, the opposition All People’s Congress <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/26/police-fire-tear-gas-at-sierra-leone-opposition-after-vote">alleged</a> that the police had killed one of its supporters by firing live shots into their party offices a day after the polls. Police have <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66030749">denied</a> this.</em> </p>
<p><em>In this interview, Catherine Bolten, Professor of Anthropology and Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, fielded questions on lessons learnt from the poll and the future of democracy in Sierra Leone. As an <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/catherine-bolten-1450652/edit">anthropologist</a>, Bolten studies politics as a social practice, which means analysing how “democracy” manifests in campaigning, elections, and policy-making, and how people imagine democratic processes in their own lives. She has conducted research in Sierra Leone since 2003, and published a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=mB6TeugAAAAJ&citation_for_view=mB6TeugAAAAJ:Se3iqnhoufwC">2016 paper</a> that focused on how the country managed the first election it ran on its own in 2012.</em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>What did you learn from the outcome of this election?</h2>
<p>Sierra Leoneans expect that the election process is potentially corrupt unless there is full transparency in the whole process. This means from the moment the electoral commission is appointed to the selection criteria for the ballot design, the selection and training of poll workers, the invitation to the international community for electoral observers, and every other decision that might affect the outcome. </p>
<p>The public had very <a href="https://www.iri.org/resources/sierra-leone-poll-shows-high-levels-of-trust-in-most-national-institutions-concern-over-economy-and-education/">high levels</a> of trust in the two elections immediately after the civil war, which ended in 2002, because the United Nations was heavily involved. It was <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2012/11/425872">involved </a> in the planning and execution of the 2002 election and, to a lesser degree, the 2007 elections. </p>
<p>The 2012 election was the country’s <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/features/p/democracy/sierra-leone-2012-elections.html">first self-administered election</a> since the war began. The whole population was committed to it being free, fair and without violence. They succeeded. </p>
<p>Since then, bad <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/sierra-leone/democracy-governance-and-human-rights#:%7E:text=Despite%20increasing%20its%20stature%20as,uphold%20the%20rule%20of%20law.">old habits</a> of nepotism, cronyism, and back-room deals have reappeared. Whether corruption is as bad as opposition party members claim is not as important as the perception that the election is corrupt. </p>
<p>If there is any lesson to be learned, it is the necessity of rebuilding public trust in every election by maintaining a transparent process.</p>
<h2>What has changed between 2012 and 2023 to result in the return of nepotism and cronyism?</h2>
<p>2012 may have been a special moment, when the country came together in a concerted effort to ensure that the elections were conducted without violence, with no questions about the legitimacy of the polling, and with full knowledge that the world was watching. </p>
<p>As I wrote in my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=mB6TeugAAAAJ&citation_for_view=mB6TeugAAAAJ:Se3iqnhoufwC">2016 paper</a>, drastic measures such as restricting freedom of movement, work, association, and even dress in the months and days leading up to the election and on election day were imposed. The citizens complied without complaint, even as these were technically violations of basic human rights. This is because the people were so committed to ensuring a free and fair election. </p>
<p>Once these restrictions were allowed to loosen in succeeding elections, it portended a return to lack of transparency in the process, and thus to the powerful exerting themselves behind the scenes, because they were no longer also committed to these restrictions.</p>
<h2>Who has been responsible for the pre-election violence?</h2>
<p>Any whiff of corruption that could affect the outcome leads to accusations of democratic backsliding. A standard-bearer who considers themselves wronged will call on the party’s followers to “demonstrate”. This is to ensure that those who are potentially corrupt see that others are trying to hold them to account.</p>
<p>Any call for a “peaceful demonstration” is a challenge to the legitimacy of the claims being made by the other side. No political leader accuses their opposition of corruption and calls for “peaceful demonstrations” without knowing that violence will occur, no matter who throws the first stone or fires the first shot. </p>
<p>Rhetoric is powerful, and a hint of grumbling about corruption will fan the flames of violence.</p>
<h2>What factors determine voter turnout?</h2>
<p>There is an <a href="https://www.thesierraleonetelegraph.com/sierra-leoneans-in-europe-protesting-against-president-bio-at-the-london-black-in-the-park/">old saying</a> in Sierra Leone politics: “same taxi, different driver”. It describes presidential candidates promising change when they get into office. The new president will do essentially what the last president did, with minor variations. </p>
<p>People are also well aware that their leaders are, by and large, <a href="https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/SLE">corrupt</a>. There is plenty of <a href="https://stopillegalfishing.com/press-links/sierra-leone-is-losing-over-one-hundred-million-dollars-from-its-fishing-industry/">evidence</a> for this, from the fisheries ministry officials turning a blind eye to illegal fishing by Chinese trawlers, to the “<a href="https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/SLE">trickle-down corruption</a>” that occurs in regular public life because public servants such as police officers and teachers are not being paid, and so demand bribes and tips from the community. This “everyday corruption” is blamed firmly on the cabinet ministers. The <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/music/meet-sierra-leone-s-people-s-popstar-emmerson-bockarie-1.717088">local artist Emerson</a>, for example, consistently lambasts politicians in his music.</p>
<p>This does not dissuade people from turning out in numbers to cast votes for their preferred candidate. They have a sense of two things: one which is extremely likely, and the other which might happen. </p>
<p>What’s extremely likely is that if their ethnic or preferred candidate does not win, their region and their ethnic people will be neglected or harassed by the ruling party, or they will simply “stand still” and receive no development. They feel voting is the only real power they have to be a part of any decision-making process, and so turnout is consistently high.</p>
<p>What might happen is that, if their candidate wins, they will they reap the benefits of foreign direct investment, NGO relief, humanitarian distribution and infrastructure. </p>
<p>So they turn out to vote for the candidate who will hurt them the least, and might actually help them.</p>
<h2>What does the 2023 election outcome portend for democracy?</h2>
<p>It is clear that the fact that a candidate is declared a winner and then immediately sworn in does not protect the country from violence or democratic backsliding. </p>
<p>There may still be violence, and there may be a crackdown on protest, which starts down a dangerous road to authoritarianism or potentially wider violence. </p>
<p>I am not sure how this will affect the future of democracy in Sierra Leone. But I believe that the international community has a duty to send observers, if only to let a country’s citizens know that their election matters, and that they are part of the foundation of the international cause of democracy. </p>
<p>Backsliding anywhere is dangerous, and no election is too small to ignore. I hope that the democratic state in Sierra Leone holds up for the next five years, in order for this repair to happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208536/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Bolten receives funding from the United States Institute for Peace, the IIE Fulbright Grant (USA), and the IIE David Boren Grant.</span></em></p>Sierra Leone needs to rebuild public trust in its election by maintaining a completely transparent process.Catherine Bolten, Professor of Anthropology and Peace Studies, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060482023-05-26T12:28:31Z2023-05-26T12:28:31ZNot all political comedy is equal – how comics can either depress turnout or activate voters in 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528359/original/file-20230525-22956-3hhbom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=119%2C119%2C4528%2C3143&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump's many missteps made him an easy target for amateur jokesters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protester-dressed-in-a-trump-costume-at-washington-square-news-photo/1229152211?adppopup=true">Ron Adar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Biden is old. Trump has weird hair. Biden mangles the English language. Trump barely seems to understand it. </p>
<p>There’s no question that it is easy to make fun of the two top presidential candidates for 2024. </p>
<p>But as I explain in my new book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Trump-Was-a-Joke-How-Satire-Made-Sense-of-a-President-Who-Didnt/Mcclennen/p/book/9781032278018">Trump Was a Joke: How Satire Made Sense of a President Who Didn’t</a>,” not all political comedy is equal. </p>
<p>Jokes that focus on physical traits – fat bellies, bald heads, bumbling speech – foster negative candidate views that can exhaust voters, as does mocking scandals, whether it’s the mishandling of classified documents, sexual misconduct or family drama. </p>
<p>In contrast, satire – which centers on faulty logic, abuses of power and flawed thinking – can compel citizens to volunteer, donate to campaigns and vote.</p>
<h2>Averting apathy</h2>
<p>A key factor to watch this election cycle is voter fatigue. </p>
<p>There was <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/01/28/turnout-soared-in-2020-as-nearly-two-thirds-of-eligible-u-s-voters-cast-ballots-for-president/">record turnout</a> during the 2020 election. Nearly two-thirds of eligible voters cast a vote, 7 percentage points higher than in 2016. However, <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/639900087/Yahoonews-Toplines-Crosstabs-20230417">recent polling data</a> suggests that 2024 may be different, with 38% of voters saying they were already exhausted at the prospect of another matchup between Trump and Biden.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.12.003">Voter fatigue</a> typically translates into lower voter turnout, and low voter turnout correlates to weaker democratic institutions. </p>
<p>This is where comedy comes in. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17439760.2011.577087">Humor can alleviate</a> depression, fear, sadness and other negative emotions.</p>
<p>The catch, though, is that even if humor combats exhaustion, it might replace it with negative views of the candidates and cynicism about the entire democratic system.</p>
<h2>Mocking leads to burnout</h2>
<p>Political comedy is complex and highly varied, but it can be divided roughly into two camps: <a href="https://bigthink.com/articles/its-not-just-a-joke-the-ethics-of-mocking-someone-appearance/">mockery</a> and <a href="https://liberalarts.oregonstate.edu/wlf/what-satire">satire</a>. Mocking comedy tends to negatively affect political participation in two ways. It can create negative views of candidates, and this, in turn, can lead to voter apathy.</p>
<p>Communications professor S. Robert Lichter and political scientists Jody C. Baumgartner and Jonathan S. Morris surveyed years of joke data in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Politics-Is-a-Joke-How-TV-Comedians-Are-Remaking-Political-Life/Lichter-Baumgartner-Morris/p/book/9780813347172">their 2015 book</a>, “Politics is a Joke!” They concluded that the political humor on late-night television was inherently negative and tended to focus more on scandals than on policy. What’s more, they found that there was a connection between negative jokes and negative public perceptions of candidates.</p>
<p>The catch, though, is that voter apathy will happen only if voters feel burned out by both candidates, because that leads to exhaustion with the system they represent.</p>
<p>During the 2008 election, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin found herself the butt of countless jokes, while then-presidential candidate Barack Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, were largely able to duck the searing critiques of comics.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vSOLz1YBFG0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tina Fey’s first impression of Sarah Palin aired on ‘Saturday Night Live’ in September 2008.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41345969">Research shows that</a> Tina Fey’s impression of Palin on “Saturday Night Live” as a fool who was ill-equipped for national office changed perceptions of Palin – and, most importantly, were even more likely to negatively affect the views of independents and Republicans.</p>
<p>After Trump was elected in 2016, <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2017/0512/Is-edgier-political-comedy-making-America-worse">some worried</a> that late-night comedy had become too partisan, which could make it less effective and more divisive. </p>
<p>Yet, concerns that late night leans too much to the left – and therefore has a negative effect on politics – may miss the fact that jokes that mock Trump can help remind Democrats that they don’t want him back in office. Similarly, right-wing memes and mockery of Biden – the sort of humor that can be found on <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23440579/comedy-wars-greg-gutfeld-jon-stewart-stephen-colbert-liberal-conservative">Greg Gutfeld’s comedy show on Fox News</a> – can motivate Trump voters to support their candidate. </p>
<p>In the end, it is the jokes that suggest that both candidates are not worth voting for that have the highest risk of depressing turnout.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man in suit sits in chair while grinning." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528366/original/file-20230525-15-y0cn12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some see ‘Gutfeld!’ as a conservative answer to the left-leaning bias of late-night television.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/greg-gutfeld-hosts-fncs-gutfeld-at-fox-news-channel-news-photo/1466195423?adppopup=true">Steven Ferdman/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Satire spurs voter engagement</h2>
<p>In contrast with mocking, negative comedy, satirical comedy uses ironic wit to engage critical thinking about the status quo. This means that there is a marked difference between most late-night comedy and the specific genre of political satire, which can be found on “The Daily Show” and “Last Week Tonight.”</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2014.891133">Research by communication professors Hoon Lee and Nojin Kwak</a> indicated that satirical comedy engages viewers and makes them more interested in being politically active. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqaa041">Another recent study</a> found that humor increases the likelihood to share political information with others and enhances information recall – both of which increase voter engagement. And audiences of political satire <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X05280074">have been shown</a> to have more confidence in their political views and a better understanding of the issues.</p>
<p>Furthermore, satirical comedy creates a community ready to engage and participate in politics. In her 2011 book “<a href="https://iupress.org/9780253222817/satire-and-dissent/">Satire and Dissent</a>,” English professor Amber Day explains that satirical comedy has “an integral community-building function, which is a crucial component of nurturing a political movement.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Porta potties with signs reading 'Joe Biden voting booth.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528363/original/file-20230525-15-t2j71z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Joe Biden is targeted with some good old-fashioned toilet humor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/toilets-labels-joe-biden-voting-booth-sit-at-a-trump-news-photo/1229014777?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>After Trump was elected in 2016, left-wing filmmaker and activist Michael Moore called for Trump’s critics to <a href="https://twitter.com/mmflint/status/828878620563222528?lang=ga">form an army of comedy</a>. He knew from his own work as a satirist and activist that politically engaged comedy can help mobilize communities. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12501">Academic research confirms</a> Moore’s instincts, showing that people who consume satire are more likely to attend rallies, discuss politics, donate to a political party, wear political buttons and vote than viewers of traditional late-night comedy shows.</p>
<p>When actor Kal Penn guest hosted “The Daily Show” in March 2023, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDye3lPbXYg">he did a segment</a> on how the Republican Party is fixated on “woke culture.” He performed a spoof of the hit TV series “House,” in which he tries to diagnose a patient with “woke mind virus,” asking the patient questions like, “Are you pissed off that Mr. Potato Head doesn’t have a penis?”</p>
<p>He then jokingly explains that being woke “is the greatest threat facing civilization” – a position held by many on the right, but one that becomes especially absurd in the context of Penn’s skit. </p>
<p>These kinds of bits have the potential to help the young voting demographic watching these clips engage with the election and vote. They also help frame political positions in ways that make the stakes of the next election easy to grasp. </p>
<p>So, as an exhausted electorate heads into the 2024 election, the question won’t be whether there will be political comedy – it will be whether it mocks the country’s democratic system or helps make it stronger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophia A. McClennen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While derision and mockery permeate airwaves and social media feeds, satire holds the key to creating a more informed, engaged electorate.Sophia A. McClennen, Professor of International Affairs and Comparative Literature, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051492023-05-11T11:36:26Z2023-05-11T11:36:26ZEurovision 2023: why the stage itself is the silent star of the contest<p>This week, Liverpool stages one of the <a href="https://eurovision.tv/mediacentre/release/183-million-viewers">world’s largest live televised events</a>, the Eurovision Song Contest. I grew up watching it as an annual family get-together. </p>
<p>Now, as a lecturer in theatre and scenography – the study and practice of how set, sound, light and costume work together in an event – I have come to appreciate the immense logistical effort this entertainment behemoth requires. </p>
<p>More fascinatingly though, it is an extraordinary example of media and performance history, providing a yearly snapshot of pan-European <a href="https://theconversation.com/eurovision-even-before-the-singing-starts-the-contest-is-a-fascinating-reflection-of-international-rules-and-politics-204934">national identities and politics</a>.</p>
<p>While the contest’s rules state that <a href="https://eurovision.tv/about/rules">it is a non-political event</a>, it undeniably puts international relations on display. But while looking at different countries’ acts and voting patterns offers interesting insights, there is a silent star of the event that often goes unnoticed – the stage.</p>
<h2>Staging a nation</h2>
<p>Since the contest’s inception in 1956, there has been no serious discussion about the way Eurovision is an exercise in staging nation, nationality and nationalism in the literal sense – namely how these ideas inform the scenography.</p>
<p>2023 marks the first time Eurovision will be hosted in the runner-up’s country due to war, with the UK hosting on behalf of Ukraine. </p>
<p>The host’s stage set-up must be everything and nothing at the same time. It needs to provide a flexible, adaptable canvas for the wide-ranging individual acts of up to 44 countries. At the same time, it must offer a memorable and distinct experience to measure up to previous iterations of the competition. </p>
<p>The stage also needs to embody that year’s chosen theme, while meeting the extensive requirements of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), which organises the event, in order to allow the competition to run efficiently.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kDPBB09eiXs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Inside Liverpool Arena as the Eurovision 2023 build got underway.</span></figcaption>
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<p>2023’s theme is “united by music”. After the UK’s difficult departure from the EU, it now faces the challenge of staging itself as part of a united European community. Meanwhile, it also needs to give space to Ukraine to do the same. </p>
<p>The Liverpool stage’s designer, Julio Himede, has repeatedly offered the <a href="https://recessed.space/00097-Julio-Himede-Eurovision">image of a hug</a> – of open arms welcoming Ukraine and the world – as central to the stage’s spatial configuration.</p>
<p>The early days of Eurovision were a much smaller affair than nowadays. When the UK first hosted in 1960 at the Royal Festival Hall in London, it seated just 2,500 people. That’s less than a quarter of this year’s 11,000 at the Liverpool arena.</p>
<p>And if you have been watching the semi-finals, you’ll already have a good sense of the sheer scale of this year’s stage. At 450m², it is almost as big as a basketball court. With an integrated lighting design through video-capable floor and ceiling tiling and huge LED screens, the only apt descriptor is “spectacular”.</p>
<p>For Eurovision, the concepts, symbols and metaphors underpinning the design have to work in tandem with the creative vision of each delegation, as well as the 45 second turnover between acts in the live show.</p>
<p>The design concept also has to be one that acknowledges the particular situation of this year’s contest and simultaneously unites the identities of Ukraine and the UK. </p>
<p>Ultimately, the image of the hug that underpins the sweeping curve of the main stage space aims to offer a more universal theme, rather than one which is culturally specific. Viewers will notice the “open arms” of the stage are echoed in the arrangement of the “green room”, where the national delegations are located during the show.</p>
<p>In this sense, Eurovision is a prime example of a “soft power” approach to international relations, which works by persuasion or influence, rather than the “hard power” of economic sanctions or military intervention. </p>
<h2>The UK after Brexit</h2>
<p>This year, it will be fascinating to see how much space the UK will give to Ukraine, not only last year’s winner but a nation in need of international recognition and support. And to what extent the UK will use this event, post-Brexit, to stage itself as a welcoming part of Europe.</p>
<p>The UK does have a history of highly successful <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/stage/theatreblog/2012/jul/31/olympic-opening-ceremony-agitprop-theatre">agit-prop</a> events, which have engaged audiences emotionally to shape public opinion. Think back to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/stage/theatreblog/2012/jul/31/olympic-opening-ceremony-agitprop-theatre">2012 London Olympics opening ceremony</a>, which strove to inspire <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13642529.2014.909674">a sense of national identity</a>. </p>
<p>In 2023, the UK sees itself in the middle of global instability and national tension over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/16/hostile-authoritarian-uk-downgraded-in-civic-freedoms-index">mounting authoritarianism</a> and <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2023/02/07/yougov-cost-living-segmentation">widening social divisions</a>. Once again, it has the chance to use an international stage to put forward an idealised narrative.</p>
<p>In any such example, the stage underpins the entire event. It is essential to the atmosphere for the live audience and fundamental to its appearance on television. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that Eurovision 2023 is a staging extravaganza and will test the UK’s capability to shake off its <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-is-the-sick-man-of-europe-again/">“sick man of Europe”</a> image. It is a stage which offers the UK the opportunity to adjust its global image in line with the contest’s welcoming theme. </p>
<p>It will be interesting to see whether the image of open arms for the world is sincere or cynical.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lara Maleen Kipp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>2023 sees the UK host the Eurovision Song Contest on behalf of Ukraine. But what role does the stage itself have to play in the musical spectacle?Lara Maleen Kipp, Lecturer in Theatre and Scenography, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2014542023-03-28T12:16:07Z2023-03-28T12:16:07ZWhen it comes to explaining elections in Congress, gerrymandering is overrated<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517245/original/file-20230323-1499-zruol1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5861%2C3907&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A voter casts his ballot at an early voting location in Alexandria, Va., Sept. 26, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/YE2022NotebookPoliticalPolarization/c72b8665161a4480b08712cb24c5f2ee/photo?Query=voting%20U.S.%202022&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5052&currentItemNo=209">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past decade, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/07/09/gerrymandering-unfair-and-unjust/frvQvECvoJOmLH8nx0Gz1M/story.html">a consistent refrain</a> in discussions of politics has been that <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gerrymander">partisan gerrymandering</a> – the drawing of congressional district lines to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/gerrymandering">disproportionately advantage one party</a> over the other – is unfair and distorts the balance of power in Congress. </p>
<p><a href="https://publicintegrity.org/politics/elections/who-counts/ohio-votes-under-extreme-gerrymandering-that-favors-republicans/">Democrats in particular have complained</a> that the process advantages Republicans. Republicans have been quick to blame Democrats for the same thing in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/29/maryland-democrats-gerrymandering-map-thrown-out/">states such as Maryland</a>.</p>
<p>But ultimately, the parties’ efforts to gain a seat advantage in the most recent round of redistricting ended up <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-alternate-maps/">mostly</a> in a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/22/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-republicans/">wash</a> – and 2022’s razor-thin midterm election results reflected this. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FeSk64QAAAAJ&hl=en">a political scientist</a> who studies Congress, elections and political representation, I know that redistricting is both more complex and less nefariously partisan than many commentators give it credit for. The truth is that gerrymandering has always been overrated as an explanation of election outcomes in Congress. </p>
<p>Let’s run through some of the reasons.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in front of a white stone building with columns, wearing a baseball cap holding a sign 'End gerrymandering in Maryland.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517232/original/file-20230323-16-1i19ef.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Protesters gather outside the Supreme Court in 2019 to argue that gerrymandering is manipulating elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/organizations-and-individuals-gathered-outside-the-supreme-news-photo/1133036023?adppopup=true">Aurora Samperio/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Does gerrymandering skew election outcomes?</h2>
<p><a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S2-C1-1/ALDE_00001031/">The Constitution requires</a> that every 10 years, following the decennial census, states redraw the geographic boundaries of congressional districts. The purpose is largely to make sure the districts are as equal as possible based on population. </p>
<p>Most states <a href="https://redistricting.lls.edu/redistricting-101/who-draws-the-lines/">rely on their state legislatures</a> to draw these lines. Critics of this process charge that in many cases, this results in gerrymandering: the drawing of districts specifically to maximize the number of seats for the party that controls the legislature. </p>
<p>In many individual states, partisan majorities in state legislatures have drawn boundaries that result in congressional delegations that don’t reflect the statewide vote. In 2021, for example, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/politics/us-redistricting/south-carolina-redistricting-map/">Republicans in South Carolina drew districts</a> that handed their party six out of the delegation’s seven seats in Congress, despite the party’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/south-carolina/president">winning only 56%</a> of the vote in 2020’s presidential election. </p>
<p>Democrats in Illinois, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/illinois-results">won 59% of the presidential vote</a> in 2020; but after the 2022 midterm elections, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Illinois">they occupy 82%</a> of the state’s congressional delegation, or 14 out of 17 seats, thanks to the heavily Democratic state Legislature’s redistricting. </p>
<p>The fact that both parties excel at gerrymandering meant that their efforts before the 2022 midterms essentially canceled each other out. As a result, the balance of seats in the new Congress largely matches the national political climate in the midterms. In <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2022/house/">2022, Republicans won 51%</a> of House seats, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/upshot/2022-republicans-midterms-analysis.html">51% of the nationwide popular vote</a> for Congress.</p>
<p>These numbers present a problem for gerrymandering critics, particularly those <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/3749510-partisan-redistricting-gave-republicans-control-of-the-house-will-a-conservative-supreme-court-take-that-advantage-back/">blaming it</a> for the Democrats’ current minority status in Congress. If gerrymandering were significantly advantaging one or the other party, these numbers would not match up.</p>
<p>But this alignment between seats and votes isn’t a new trend. In the three most recent Congresses, the balance of congressional seats between the two parties is nearly identical to the percentage of the vote each party received nationwide in congressional races. In the 2018 midterms, for example, Democrats won <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-charts/2018-house-popular-vote-tracker">54% of congressional votes nationwide</a>, and ended up with <a href="https://history.house.gov/Congressional-Overview/Profiles/116th/">54% of the seats</a> in the House. </p>
<p><iframe id="StHAP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/StHAP/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Data I’ve collected for other cycles does show a discrepancy between seats and votes during the Obama years, and it’s probably true that the redistricting process before 2012 cost Democrats a few seats in that decade.</p>
<p>But gerrymandering hasn’t always benefited Republicans: Democrats enjoyed a bigger and more sustained advantage from their district boundaries during the 1970s and 1980s. And if gerrymandering was ever the main cause of Democrats’ seat disadvantage in the House, it’s not today. </p>
<h2>Geography matters, just not the way you think</h2>
<p>Democrats and their allies have been particularly outspoken in their disparagement of gerrymandering, in some cases using some of the same fatalistic language about elections as former President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>For example, one argument during the Obama years was that gerrymandering made it “<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-its-impossible-for-democrats-to-win-the-house">impossible</a>” for Democrats to win the House. Sometimes the <a href="https://captimes.com/opinion/paul-fanlund/opinion-supreme-court-election-is-a-chance-to-beat-the-far-right-at-its-long/article_af9b5d76-a584-54ad-9226-7c9d7a806d12.html">language mirrored Trump’s</a> — that gerrymandering had “<a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/the-midterms-are-about-courts-rigging-the-outcome.html">rigged</a>” congressional elections in favor of Republicans. </p>
<p>Aside from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/13/us/politics/republican-candidates-2020-election-misinformation.html">well-demonstrated dangers</a> of casting doubt on the nation’s election systems, the evidence simply doesn’t support this doomsday perspective. Democrats do have major problems with geography, but they run much deeper than unfairly drawn lines. </p>
<p>Over the past 30 years, U.S. counties have <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/20-counties-that-will-decide-the-2022-midterm-elections/">consistently become less competitive</a> between the parties in presidential elections. </p>
<p>In 1992, the vast majority of counties were won by slim margins, and thus winnable by either party. Only 1 in 3 counties was won by either party by more than 10 percentage points. </p>
<p>But today, the story is the opposite. Nearly 4 out of every 5 counties in 2020 were won decisively – by 10 points or more – by either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.</p>
<p><iframe id="Ylzqe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ylzqe/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The problem for Democrats is that these emerging landslide counties almost exclusively vote for Republicans. The thing about counties, though, is that their boundaries don’t change. This means that the massive geographic advantage Republicans enjoy cannot be blamed solely on gerrymandering. </p>
<p>The real explanation is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2012.720229">geographic sorting</a> of the two parties over the past 30 or more years. Democrats have diminished as a presence in rural counties, particularly in the South and Midwest, while gaining numbers in counties with large cities like Los Angeles, Houston and Chicago. </p>
<p>These latter areas have such large populations that by winning them decisively, Democrats can stay competitive nationally despite Republicans’ more even geographic spread of support across the country.</p>
<p>The data largely indicates that it is this phenomenon, not gerrymandering, that is responsible for Democratic electoral underperformance. The clustering of Democratic votes in big cities makes it more difficult for any entity – including courts and nonpartisan commissions – to draw district lines that get Democrats the most possible seats in Congress. Because Democrats live in denser, more tightly packed places, they can’t distribute their votes as efficiently among geographic districts throughout a state.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, because Republican support is more evenly distributed geographically, there are more and better options for them to win lots of districts, rather than just lots of votes. Put simply, because of where they tend to live, Republicans are wasting fewer of their votes than Democrats.</p>
<h2>Gerrymandering is still a problem</h2>
<p>None of this means that partisan gerrymandering is not happening, or that efforts shouldn’t be made to fix it. </p>
<p>If both parties are gerrymandering so effectively that they cancel out each other’s gains, this has major implications for political institutions and culture even if they aren’t reflected in the national balance of power. </p>
<p>Gerrymandering has been increasingly the subject of <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-carolina-supreme-court-poised-085218358.html">court challenges</a>, further bringing politics into the supposedly nonpolitical U.S. judicial system.</p>
<p>It also has tangible effects on regular Americans. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.05.007">My own research</a> shows that changing district lines can disorient voters and reduce turnout. It could also cut into voters’ sense that their votes make a difference. </p>
<p>Democrats from South Carolina and Republicans from Illinois, would, I believe, feel better represented if they could see delegations that more accurately reflected their state’s electorate.</p>
<p>Additionally, partisan gerrymandering often means disregarding important local city and county boundaries, as well as local cultures, neighborhoods and industries – what political scientists call “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2019.0576">communities of interest</a>” – that have little to do with partisanship but mean a lot to everyday people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A loud chorus of Democrats – and some Republicans, too – has for years claimed gerrymandering is costing their party seats in Congress. Is it true?Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.