tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/youth-vote-6685/articlesYouth vote – The Conversation2024-02-21T13:24:18Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222332024-02-21T13:24:18Z2024-02-21T13:24:18ZYoung people are lukewarm about Biden – and giving them more information doesn’t move the needle much<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576872/original/file-20240220-16-qvln0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young voters in Ann Arbor, Mich., fill out applications to cast their ballot in the midterm elections in November 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/zachary-rose-fills-out-an-application-to-cast-his-ballot-news-photo/1244584443?adppopup=true">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent polling for the November 2024 election shows that President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters, who have traditionally supported Democrats. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/19/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">December 2023 poll</a> showed that 49% of young people supported former President Donald Trump, while just 43% of 18- to 29-year-olds said they preferred Biden. </p>
<p>Biden is even struggling with young people who identify as Democrats. A <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023">Fall 2023 Harvard Kennedy School</a> poll shows that just 62% of Democrats aged 18 to 29 years old said they would vote for Biden in 2024. </p>
<p>Many Democrats are <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4138154-democrats-worry-young-people-souring-on-party/">increasingly anxious</a> that young voters who <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">supported Biden in 2020</a> will boycott the general election in 2024, support a third-party candidate or <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election">vote for Trump</a>. </p>
<p>Polls this far from Election Day are <a href="https://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/variable-abs.shtml">notoriously variable</a> and not reliable for predicting election results. Furthermore, some political pundits are asking whether young voters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html">will return to the Biden coalition</a> once the campaign season heats up and they learn more about the two candidates. </p>
<p>As scholars of <a href="https://neilobrian.com">public opinion</a> and the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J4Vp11wAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">U.S. presidency</a>, we are deeply interested in the prospect of young voters, particularly Democrats, defecting from the Biden coalition. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young, white woman with brown hair wearing shorts and a beige cardigan walks past a bulletin board with flyers on it for vioting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Emory University student in Atlanta walks past voting information in October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-woman-walks-past-voting-information-flyers-on-the-news-photo/1244204334?adppopup=true">Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Mixed evidence on young voters’ support for Biden</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/">51% of young voters</a>, aged 18 to 29 years old, identify as Democrats. This compares with 35% of these voters who identify as Republicans. In 2020, young voters in this age group made up an <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#when-and-how-young-people-voted">estimated 17%</a> of the electorate. </p>
<p>In a close election, securing the youth vote will be paramount in order for Biden to win reelection.</p>
<p>We wanted to understand how young voters might change their election pick preferences if they learn more about different topics, such as the economy, likely to feature in this election season. </p>
<p>We recruited 1,418 respondents from across the country to participate in an online survey experiment in December 2023, including 860 people who identify as Democrats.</p>
<p>In this experiment, we exposed respondents to different messages that the Biden campaign might employ, to see if young Democrats could be persuaded back to Biden.</p>
<p>A quarter of the respondents saw information about how <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-inflation-reduction-climate-anniversary-9950f7e814ac71e89eee3f452ab17f71">inflation and</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-unemployment-jobs-inflation-interest-rates-b1c21252024d697765d047a60f41e900">unemployment decreased</a> during the Biden administration. </p>
<p>Another quarter of respondents were given information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-capitol-riot-probe-turns-focus-trump-allies-extremist-groups-2022-07-12/">encouraging an insurrection</a> at the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>The next quarter of respondents were given information about Biden’s and Trump’s positions on abortion, and whether the U.S. should accept immigrants from the Gaza Strip. </p>
<p>The final group of respondents received no information about a particular topic.</p>
<p>In our research, which has yet to be published, we found mixed evidence that undecided young Democrats would be persuaded to vote for Biden based on any new information we shared with them. </p>
<p>Among the people we polled who were given no information, 66% of 18-year-old to 34-year-old Democrats said they would vote for Biden. This roughly tracks with national polling. </p>
<p>Would learning about the strength of the economy boost Biden’s support? </p>
<p>About 69% of young Democrats who read about dropping inflation and unemployment rates said they would vote for Biden, compared with 31% who said they would vote for Trump or another candidate. This reflects a modest increase in support for Biden, compared to people who had no information on this topic. </p>
<p>We then tested whether providing information to voters about the candidates’ policy positions would change support for Biden. </p>
<p>It is possible that voters are just unaware of the candidates’ positions on issues <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/upshot/kamala-harris-biden-voters-polls.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article">and, after getting more information</a>, will change their views. </p>
<p>We found that 71% of respondents who learned about Biden’s and Trump’s policy positions on abortion and Palestinian refugees from Gaza said they would vote for Biden, compared with the 66% who did not read any new information on these topics before deciding their pick. </p>
<p>Finally, we gave people information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior. This actually marginally decreased support for Biden, dropping from the 66% among people who did not have any of this information given to them in the survey to 63% among people who did. This change, though, lacked what social scientists call statistical significance – meaning that we cannot say this difference is not just attributable to chance alone. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that giving young Democrats access to three different pieces of information generally led to small increases in whether they said they would vote for Biden or not. </p>
<p>Next, we asked respondents “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election?” and how likely they are to vote in the upcoming presidential election. We found that the three different pieces of information each led to a small increase in reported vote intention among young Democrats, but didn’t, on average, increase their enthusiasm about voting. In other words, if young voters feel compelled to vote, they may do so, but without enthusiasm.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young people sit around a table, and two young people, both wearing white T-shirts, stand near a screen that says 'Canvass training'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abortion rights canvassers gather for a canvass training in Columbus, Ohio, in November 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-choice-canvassers-gather-for-a-canvass-training-meeting-news-photo/1766360809?adppopup=true">Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The power of persuasion</h2>
<p>Taken together, these results show little movement among young Democrats. This is particularly striking when compared to older Democrats in our sample. </p>
<p>When presented with information about the strength of the economy, the candidates’ divergent policy positions or Trump’s norm-violating behavior, support for Biden among likely voters who were 55 years old or older and identified as Democrats increased from 73% to around 90%.</p>
<p>These results suggest an uphill battle for the Biden campaign to bring back young voters. Young voters, even if they identify as Democrats, are perhaps less attached to a party, or democratic institutions more generally, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/18/democracy-young-people-voters-trump/">than older voters</a>. This means campaign messages about democratic norms might be less persuasive among younger voters. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there are reasons to expect young voters might return to Biden: The economy is doing well, which <a href="https://news.northeastern.edu/2023/11/06/presidential-election-predictions-polls/">tends to help incumbents</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, partisanship, particularly in this polarizing environment, remains a powerful influence, and may still exert a pull on young Democrats over the campaign.</p>
<p>Democrats, after all, successfully ran on an anti-Trump campaign in the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/">2022 midterm elections</a>, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/exit-polling-live-updates/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTTJGbU9EZ3dNalZtTURZMiIsInQiOiJTOTZTRHBrN0lNWG9IVisxUXhEdUdtcUxYaENlS2tIYlJ1YTZyTzhkNjBQM2o0dWVwZlVad3lxaTk1N0FtelwvMkJDOTdsYWtmVDU5eVVDQjhjcjJLUDBocGFaWjRRalVaXC9paTE1dGhzSmxrYWtjUnlXWEk2cVlDc0xPS1FQZ0RPIn0%3D#section-100">2020 general election</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/midterm-elections-results.html">2018 midterm elections</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While young voters say they would be more likely to vote for Biden after they learn more about the economy and other topics, they did not appear affected by Donald Trump’s norm-defying behavior.Neil O'Brian, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonChandler James, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166142023-11-08T17:58:12Z2023-11-08T17:58:12ZThe kids are alright: Aspiring political staffers are altruistically motivated<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-kids-are-alright-aspiring-political-staffers-are-altruistically-motivated" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Young people who work as political staffers in Canada have long been derogatorily labelled by politicians and pundits as “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/commenters-snipe-from-sidelines-but-the-kids-in-short-pants-are-all-right-1.2673611">the kids in short pants</a>,” a comment about their age and perceived inexperience <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/how-stephen-harper-s-inner-circle-has-changed-1.2652571">coined by an adviser to former prime minister Stephen Harper.</a></p>
<p>Despite the important roles political staffers fill in our democracy, their work is often overlooked and undervalued by the politicians and voters that they serve. </p>
<p>It’s these young people that we encounter when we contact a politician. Political staffers answer phones, respond to emails and organize community events. Political staffers often act as the link between voters and the decision-makers that we elect. </p>
<p>Within the halls of power, <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/2016/07/demystifying-the-role-of-parliamentary-staffers/">political staffers serve politicians</a> by offering political advice, guidance and support in communications, policy, administration and parliamentary affairs. For better <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000606">or worse</a>, political staffers are undoubtedly influential.</p>
<h2>Self-interest or civic duty?</h2>
<p>But who are these people and why do they want this job? Are these smart young people driven by careerism, self-interest and personal gain? Or are they guided by altruism, civic duty and dedicated to working in the public interest? What motivates the kids in short pants?</p>
<p>Just as we should be concerned with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00147.x">why politicians run for public office</a>, we should be interested in what motivates political staffers to undertake their work. </p>
<p>One way of answering these questions is to survey the young people who want to become political staffers: university students who study political science. </p>
<p>Political science majors have a <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/political-science/graduate/career-outcomes-ma-political-science-graduates">variety of career opportunities</a> available to them. They can pursue professional degrees in law or public policy, work in the private sector in public relations or government affairs, or choose to join the civil services. </p>
<p>Yet some choose to become political staffers, a career that offers fewer material benefits and substantially less job security. Why pursue this work? </p>
<h2>Polling students</h2>
<p>We surveyed 252 university students in a political science course at the University of Toronto to find out.</p>
<p>We asked students if they were interested in going into a career as a political staffer, and why or why not they would pursue this option after university. In addition to examining whether the student is interested in working as a political staffer, we also categorized students <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018784065">as either self-interested</a> or motivated to serve the public interest. </p>
<p>Among students who are not interested in political work, most stated it was because their own interests were better served elsewhere. Some believed that politics was a fool’s errand, or that it was too deeply flawed to actually help the public. Some students feel unsuited for politics due to power dynamics, public scrutiny or required expertise.</p>
<p>Among students who are interested in working as a political staffer, students we categorized as self-interested express personal career aspirations or a general passion for politics without explicit references to helping others or the community.</p>
<p>Public-interested students were marked by a desire to serve the public interest, represent <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/january-2022/do-mps-represent-canadas-diversity/">under-represented groups</a> and address areas of social concern. </p>
<h2>Serving the public</h2>
<p>Our analysis demonstrates that the vast majority of students interested in pursuing work as a political staffer are motivated by contributing to the public good. </p>
<p>Many of these students expressed interest in bettering their communities and Canada more generally. One of the students aptly expressed the group’s shared vision: “I want to help people and continue the transition of humanity towards a better future.” </p>
<p>Some young people are motivated by the opportunity to be part of positive political change: “I want to be a part of the next generation of Canadian politics.” One told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I want to be involved in working towards a better future for Canadians. I also want to help make change towards issues that matter for me such as environmental issues or advocating for human rights.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another major goal of these students is the opportunity to represent under-represented groups: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“As a member of the Black community, representation in places of distinction or decision making tables are immensely limited and I want to be that advocate for policies and laws as it pertains to the benefit of my community in order to create more access.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In contrast to these responses, only a few students reported self-interested reasons for working as a political staffer. Among this group, self-interest motivations ranged from enhancing resumes to aiming for future high-paying jobs or influential positions, or, as one student bluntly wrote: “I can make a LOT of money.” </p>
<p>At the same time, some envisioned careers as a lawyer after working on politics or even the possibility of becoming politician themselves: “After a decade or so of working as a political staffer, I intend to run for public office.”</p>
<h2>Motivated by the public good</h2>
<p>Working as a political staffer is underappreciated, underpaid and fraught with <a href="https://www.ipolitics.ca/opinions/anxiety-job-insecurity-and-betting-pools-what-its-like-to-be-a-staffer-during-a-cabinet-shuffle">job insecurity</a>. But we need smart young people to undertake this work, and we also need people who are not influenced by ulterior motives to have access to the halls of power. </p>
<p>In a time of <a href="https://theconversation.com/alberta-curriculum-end-the-failed-partisan-politics-over-what-kids-should-learn-153163">growing partisanship</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/ontario-steve-clark-resigns-greenbelt-land-swap">general political uncertainty</a>, our short research project provides a snapshot of the young people who might one day walk the halls of power.</p>
<p>Aspiring political staffers are motivated by a consistent passion for public service and contributing to a better Canada. </p>
<p>Maybe the kids in short pants are alright after all?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>We are grateful to Prof. Randy Besco for supporting our research by providing access to an omnibus survey of undergraduate political science students.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Roelofs receives funding from the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blake Lee-Whiting receives funding from the Policy, Elections, and Representation Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, and the Schwartz Reisman Institute for Technology and Society at the University of Toronto.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lewis Krashinsky receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Fulbright Canada, and the Department of Politics at Princeton University. </span></em></p>In a time of growing partisanship and general political uncertainty, a short research project provides a snapshot of the young people who might one day walk the halls of power.William Roelofs, PhD Candidate, Political Science, University of TorontoBlake Lee-Whiting, PhD Candidate, Political Science, University of TorontoLewis Krashinsky, PhD Candidate, Politics, Princeton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1958962022-12-19T18:13:45Z2022-12-19T18:13:45ZYoung people around the world can save democracy — but they need our help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501161/original/file-20221214-15841-2wlm5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5754%2C3721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A youth cries during the funeral procession of a child who was killed during protests against new President Dina Boluarte in Andahuaylas, Peru, on Dec. 12, 2022, after what some believe was a coup to illegally oust her predecessor.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Franklin Briceno)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A photograph recently circulated on social media purportedly showing two Chinese professors in Shanghai standing between a squad of police officers and students protesting the government’s zero-COVID policies.</p>
<p>That morning, when I met my class for the course I teach on political repression, a Chinese student remarked: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre, Chinese students never dared to demand democracy, respect for human rights, freedom of speech, freedom to assemble and freedom of the press. Something new is happening. I wish we had brave adults like the two professors supporting us to fight for democracy and for a better future.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Where are those brave adults supporting the struggle of young people to revive democracy? How in my professorial role can I support <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/beijing-drops-some-covid-tests-as-capital-readies-itself-for-life-again">students from repressive regimes who are risking it all to achieve democracy</a>? What kind of support should be offered to young people fighting these battles in 2023 — and well beyond?</p>
<h2>Democracy under threat</h2>
<p>In every region of the world, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">liberal democracy is threatened</a>. In 2018, Michael J. Abramowitz, president of the global Freedom House think tank, <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/democracy-crisis">noted that democracy is in crisis</a>. He wrote: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Political rights and civil liberties around the world deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterized by emboldened autocratic, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>According to the Swedish research institute <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/publications/dr_2022.pdf">V-Dem’s</a> 2022 report, democracies are deteriorating and tilting into dictatorships at the fastest rate in 50 years.</p>
<p>The organization notes that only about 13 per cent of the global population live in liberal democracies, while <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule">Freedom House’s</a> approximation is 20 per cent. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young woman shouts while holding a sign that reads 'we're not extremists, we're extremely tired'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sri Lankan youth shout anti-government slogans during a protest demanding president Gotabaya Rajapaksa resign in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in April 2022. He was later ousted in a popular uprising.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are thought to be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/europe/how-autocrats-can-triumph-in-democratic-countries.html">three phases</a> of democratic decline over the last 100 years. One was in the 1920s, another in the 1960s and now we’re in what <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029">some scholars</a> have dubbed “a third wave of autocratization,” arguing:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Once in power, unscrupulous leaders can sometimes manipulate the political environment to their own benefit, making it more likely that they will be victorious in future contests. By winning those elections, they gain the stamp of democratic legitimacy — even for actions that ultimately undermine democratic norms.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Authoritarian regimes are subtly entrenching their power domestically and abroad by rejecting popular demands for good governance, adherence to the rule of law, institutional independence, human rights and freedoms. </p>
<p>Some of the nations <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/veto-power-countries">with veto power at the United Nations</a>, most notably <a href="https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/62-special-issue/chinas-assertive-authoritarianism/">China</a> and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/19/putin-s-war-has-moved-russia-from-authoritarianism-to-hybrid-totalitarianism-pub-86921">Russia</a>, are turning out to be domestic and international aggressors. They violate human rights with impunity because they control global political systems that could otherwise prosecute them. </p>
<p>While for a long time <a href="https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-01-25/noam-chomsky-american-democracy-is-in-very-serious-danger.html">the United States</a> was the beacon of democracy, American democracy is now in danger.</p>
<p>In many countries, democracy is now limited to casting votes in elections that are often rigged. Technology has complicated the political landscape, and is used to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2017/11/30/how-to-rig-an-election/">fix votes</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/18/what-is-pegasus-spyware-and-how-does-it-hack-phones">put civilians under surveillance</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-rigged-elections-look-nothing-like-the-us-election-they-have-immediate-unquestioned-results-there-149710">Russia's rigged elections look nothing like the US election – they have immediate, unquestioned results there</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Youth fight for democracy around the world</h2>
<p>For centuries, politics and economics have largely been the purview of elite aging men and a few women. These elites have often assumed young people are <a href="https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/young-peoples-civic-and-political-engagement-and-global-citizenship">nonpolitical and incapable of civic and political engagement</a>.</p>
<p>But youth are fighting for democracy around the world, in countries that include China, Russia, Belarus, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, India, Hungary, Turkey, Uganda, Sudan, Iran, Chile, Peru, Palestine, Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, Tunisia, Kuwait, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the United States, to name just a few.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, they lack support. The absence is most keenly felt and conspicuous in underdeveloped countries where political regimes use resources and institutional violence via police forces and military <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3195492/hong-kong-protests-young-people-jailed-over-unrest-should">to incarcerate</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/torture-abducted-uganda-crackdown-museveni">torture and even kill</a> young protesters.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/iran-executes-first-protester-as-human-rights-abuses-come-under-international-scrutiny-195699">Iran executes first protester as human rights abuses come under international scrutiny</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Nonetheless, by using social media to mobilize nationwide protests, as well as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/03/699797300/the-song-capturing-the-heart-of-sudans-protest-movement">music</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DailyMonitor/videos/nrm-supporters-dancing-to-bobi-wines-kasukali-keko-song-during-protest-in-entebb/240704337500570/">dance</a> in some places, young people are resisting state repression and decrying human rights violations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young Black people are seen protesting in the streets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young Sudanese demonstrators march in Khartoum, Sudan, in December 2022 to protest a deal signed between the country’s main pro-democracy group and its ruling generals, who seized power in an October 2021 coup.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Marwan Ali)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Supporting the fight for democracy</h2>
<p>Democracy has long been regarded as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/democracy/The-spread-of-democracy-in-the-20th-century">the political system that transformed the world</a>. Today, we urgently need healthy democracies to resolve pressing domestic and global issues, including wars, poverty, food insecurity and climate change. </p>
<p>Nelson Mandela, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Long-Walk-to-Freedom">in his iconic autobiography <em>Long Walk to Freedom</em></a>, noted how in African democracy, community chiefs listened to everyone until they came to a consensus, unlike some western democracies, where the winners take all. </p>
<p>Today, it’s important to engage in that kind of dialogue with young people around the world to determine appropriate forms of democracy. Any form of governance should be rooted in local cultures. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protesters wearing masks march while holding up blank pieces of paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C8190%2C5419&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young people hold up blank papers and chant slogans as they protest in Beijing in November 2022 against strict measures to contain an outbreak of COVID-19. The blank paper allows protesters to avoid arrest or censorship in state media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many youth lack political experience and knowledge. They need to be guided and empowered with civic and political education. But we must also listen to them.</p>
<p>And that’s not all. The tech giants that manipulate their platforms and violate the privacy of their users in ways that help dictators must be regulated.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-regulation-why-we-must-ensure-it-is-democratic-and-inclusive-179819">Social media regulation: why we must ensure it is democratic and inclusive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Judicial and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12448">financial penalties</a> must be imposed on any officials who take their countries backwards and into autocracy, and we must demand a commitment to the rule of law by all nations.</p>
<p>If we don’t support youth’s struggle for democracy, there’s little chance of a peaceful, secure, sustainably developed and environmentally friendly future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evelyn Namakula receives funding from SSHRC</span></em></p>If we don’t support youth’s struggle for democracy, there’s little chance of a peaceful, secure, sustainably developed and environmentally friendly future.Evelyn Namakula Mayanja, Assistant Professor, Interdisciplinary Studies, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949572022-12-09T13:29:31Z2022-12-09T13:29:31ZNear record-high numbers of young people voted during the midterms, signaling a possible shift – or exception – in voting trends<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499604/original/file-20221207-10117-wwi2oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People line up to cast early ballots during the 2022 election at the University of Michigan. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244584306/photo/us-vote-election.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=MsAi1cvASg5oWW9Xv5x2H6xYH6NmIWpjC-QIUQqEQzY=">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The November 2022 midterms have come and gone, but there are still some potential lasting implications that could influence the next election season. </p>
<p>One is that young people, aged 18 to 29, had <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center#youth-turnout-second-highest-in-last-three-decades">one of the highest</a> voter turnouts in a midterm election in recent history, according to our early analysis.</p>
<p>Specifically, an estimated 27% of eligible voters in that age group turned out to the polls in 2022, according to research by my team at CIRCLE – a research group at Tufts University focused on youth civic engagement. This marks only the second time in the last 30 years that more than 1 in 4 voters under 30 voted in a midterm cycle. In 2018, approximately 31% of young people voted.</p>
<p>It was young people’s support for Democratic candidates, specifically, that led them to have a major impact on elections in key states this year. Their votes were influential or outright decisive in several close races won by Democrats, such as <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-voters-decided-georgia-senate-race-shaped-other-close-elections">Nevada’s senate election</a>. The same was true in the Georgia senate and Arizona gubernatorial races.</p>
<p>Voter turnout across all age groups <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/how-midterms-do-and-do-not-differ-from-presidential-elections/">tends to be</a> significantly lower in midterm elections than in presidential elections. </p>
<p>Young people, though, have <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/our-research/broadening-youth-voting#youth-voting-in-recent-elections">historically voted at even lower rates than older adults</a> in general. This trend has begun to change, with double-digit increases in youth turnout between 2014 and 2018 and <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/half-youth-voted-2020-11-point-increase-2016">between 2016 and 2020</a>. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/people/abby-kiesa">scholar of young people’s participation in democracy</a>, I think the youth vote in 2022 underscores much of what works to increase young people’s electoral participation. </p>
<h2>More registration, more votes</h2>
<p>For starters, there was <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-voter-registration-compared-2018-especially-key-battlegrounds">higher youth voter registration in 2022 than in 2018</a> in many states, including Michigan, Nevada and Kansas. Young political and civic leaders and voters also connected to issues that affect their lives – like abortion rights – in this election.</p>
<p>These trends also highlight what could help lessen ongoing challenges to get more young people to vote. There are voting laws, for example, that <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/uneven-election-policies-across-country-shape-youth-voting">make it easier to register and vote</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three young women wear face masks and hold yellow sweatshirts up to them that say 'count every vote'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499620/original/file-20221207-27-nyzf3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499620/original/file-20221207-27-nyzf3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499620/original/file-20221207-27-nyzf3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499620/original/file-20221207-27-nyzf3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499620/original/file-20221207-27-nyzf3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499620/original/file-20221207-27-nyzf3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499620/original/file-20221207-27-nyzf3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young people typically are less likely than older people to vote in both presidential and midterm elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1229453937/photo/young-students-female-voters-with-every-vote-counts.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=mRA3zRNweuRpv3ood5s_on_klqT36_ZlvA5odTNGb80=">Aaron Jackendoff/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What happened in November 2022</h2>
<p>The overall 27% youth turnout rate is only one part of the story. </p>
<p>This was the <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center#youth-prefer-democrats-by-28-point-margin">10th election cycle in a row</a> in which 18- to 29-year-olds supported Democratic House candidates by at least a 10-point margin, according to CIRCLE’s analysis of the Edison Research data. </p>
<p>This year, young voters preferred Democratic House candidates by a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house">28-point margin</a>. Youth of color, young women and LGBTQ youth <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center#women,-youth-of-color,-lgbt-youth-give-democrats-strongest-support">supported Democrats by an even wider margin</a>.</p>
<p>Young voters’ preference at the polls was markedly different from that of other age groups. Nationally, voters ages 30 to 44 preferred House Democrats by only 4 percentage points, and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/arizona/senate">voters over the age of 65 preferred House Republicans</a> by more than 10 points. </p>
<h2>Why did it happen</h2>
<p>Many reporters have asked me and my colleagues who contributed to this article – including Alberto Medina, CIRCLE’s communications team lead, and Ruby Belle Booth, CIRCLE’s elections coordinator – why youth voter turnout dropped in 2022 below the 2018 levels. </p>
<p>Throughout 2022, there were some signs that youth participation in the midterms would be relatively strong, including the <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-voter-registration-compared-2018-especially-key-battlegrounds">number of young people already registered to vote</a>. However, in that same analysis, my colleagues and I found that voter registration among 18- and 19-year-olds was lagging compared to 2018.</p>
<p>Supporting these young people to vote <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-turnout-among-teens-shows-need-growing-voters">remains an enduring challenge</a>. </p>
<p>Many campaigns and organizations rely on the existing voter rolls and other lists of registered voters to conduct outreach, so they often miss these potential new voters. That’s compounded by another issue: Young people are less inclined than other voters <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-more-optimistic-about-democracy-older-voters-less-inclined-identify-major">to identify or register with a political party</a>. </p>
<h2>Politics is personal</h2>
<p>Instead, many young people approach politics based on the issues they care about. </p>
<p>In 2018, for example, the Parkland, Florida, school shooting, which killed 17 people, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/gun-violence-prevention-movement-fueled-youth-engagement-2018-election">led more young people</a> to vote for candidates they felt would do more to curb gun violence. </p>
<p>A number of high-profile <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/global-climate-strikes-environmental-protests-in-2020/2082982">climate change</a> protests in 2020 also appeared to <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/protests-politics-and-power-exploring-connections-between-youth-voting-and-youth">boost youth voter turnout that year</a>. </p>
<p>In 2020, many young voters focused on racial justice and the Black Lives Matter movement, following the May 2020 police killing of George Floyd, a 46-year-old Black man. That <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/early-takeaways-what-worked-reach-youth-during-2020-election">spurred considerable political engagement</a>, like participating in public protests, that connected to a <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/half-youth-voted-2020-11-point-increase-2016">major increase in youth voter turnout</a> between 2016 and 2020. </p>
<p>In 2022, young people continued to push for change on issues they consider personal, like climate change, gun violence and racial justice.</p>
<p>And after the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/major-national-issues-abortion-may-spur-youth-mobilization">abortion rose to the top</a> of young people’s issues of concern.</p>
<p>While nearly 3 in 4 young people said they favor legal abortion, both young people who are for and against abortion rights said this was a top issue for them. </p>
<p>Our analysis of exit poll data found that young voters were the <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/abortion-election-how-youth-prioritized-and-voted-based-issues">only age group to cite abortion as their top reason for voting</a>. Other groups of voters over 30 said that inflation was their top priority.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in an orange shirt stands next to a table outdoors with a sign that says 'register to vote' while another man leans over the table, filing out paperwork." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499621/original/file-20221207-1436-2ku8rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voter turnout among young people has historically been low, in both midterm and presidential elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/82518507/photo/denver-prepares-to-host-the-democratic-national-convention.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=yHWxjNzhMfqD0UXPFfV8n0llXl6svXIS_Wx8MPbj6mk=">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Implications for 2024 and beyond</h2>
<p>Millions more young people born after 1996 will <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/">reach voting age</a> by 2024. Their political power will only grow in the years to come, while those over the age of 65 will make up a declining share of the population and the electorate. </p>
<p>What that shift means for election results will depend on how political parties and other political and civic groups engage young people. </p>
<p>In recent years, most young people have voted for Democrats. This is a shift from just 20 years ago, when voters under 30 split their vote fairly evenly between <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-republicans-young-trump-voters-and-future-gop">Democrat and Republican candidates</a>. </p>
<p>But Republicans lag behind Democrats when it comes to directly communicating with young people. Just less than 1 in 3 people aged 18 to 29 said they <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/early-takeaways-what-worked-reach-youth-during-2020-election">heard from the Republican Party</a> or the Donald Trump campaign in the month before Election Day in 2020. Half of young people, conversely, said they heard from the Democratic Party or Joe Biden’s campaign.</p>
<p>There are other actions and policies that could get more people under 30 to the polls. </p>
<p>Preregistration, which allows young people to register to vote at age 16 so they’re ready to cast a ballot once they turn 18, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/uneven-election-policies-across-country-shape-youth-voting#pre-registration">can increase youth turnout, but it’s only available in 16 states</a>. Other policies and efforts by election administrators to get more young people to vote can vary widely across states, leading to major differences in participation. In 2020, youth turnout varied from <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/half-youth-voted-2020-11-point-increase-2016">32% in South Dakota to 67% in New Jersey</a>. </p>
<p>Young people’s estimated 27% turnout rate in 2022 marks a near-record for an age group that has historically participated at lower rates in midterm elections. Whether this is a long-term <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/ahead-2018-midterms-new-generation-finds-its-political-voice">trend or not</a> will depend on whether communities and political groups implement the changes that research suggests can lead to sustained increases in youth voter turnout.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abby has worked on research projects funded by private foundations including: the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, Youth Engagement Fund, the Democracy Fund, the Spencer Foundation, Ford Foundation, The Pew Charitable Trusts, MacArthur Foundation, the Omidyar Network, the Knight Foundation, Tides Foundation, the Bernard and Audre Rapoport Foundation. She is affiliated with the American Educational Research Association (member), Rock the Vote's Democracy Class (Advisory Council), Generation Citizen/Vote16USA (Advisory Board), and the Rural Youth Catalyst's Changing the Outcomes for Rural Youth Working Group. </span></em></p>About 27% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in the midterms, marking the second-highest voter turnout in midterms in 30 years.Abby Kiesa, Deputy Director at CIRCLE, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1945072022-11-17T16:48:56Z2022-11-17T16:48:56ZYoung U.S. voters reduced the ‘Red Wave’ to a ‘Pink Splash’ in the midterm elections — why didn’t polls predict it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495671/original/file-20221116-25-3t8i35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5465%2C3640&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A young voter fills out her ballot at a polling site in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Nov. 8, 2022. Public polling underestimated the strength of the youth vote in the recent U.S. midterms.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Minchillo)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/young-u-s--voters-reduced-the--red-wave--to-a--pink-splash--in-the-midterm-elections-—-why-didn-t-polls-predict-it" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>It increasingly seems that projections of election results based on public polling are unreliable. The 2022 midterm elections in the United States are a prime example.</p>
<p>Americans appeared set to vote Republican en masse — in a so-called “Red Wave” — on the morning of Nov. 8. </p>
<p>Amid <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/voters-under-40-apathetic-towards-biden-concerned-about-inflation-ahead-of-midterms.html">high inflation, a precarious House of Representatives majority and low approval ratings for President Joe Biden</a>, a perfect storm was brewing. Polls suggested a huge Republican win was imminent and the party was poised to secure control of the House and the Senate with a sizeable majority. </p>
<p>We now know those predictions did not materialize. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/16/republicans-win-house-majority/">Democrats held onto the Senate and almost held onto the House</a>. Republican results were lacklustre at best. </p>
<p>Youth voters have been hailed as the catalyst that turned the <a href="https://time.com/6231293/red-wave-pink-splash-election-republicans/">Red Wave into a “Pink Splash</a>.” <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center">Twenty-seven per cent of voters aged 18-29</a> cast a ballot — the second highest youth voter turnout in nearly 30 years. Further still, roughly 63 per cent of youth voters backed Democratic candidates — the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1590369271125008385"}"></div></p>
<p>The reality of election results and the glaring absence of youth voter impact on projections begs the question: are we accurately capturing public opinion?</p>
<h2>What went wrong for pollsters</h2>
<p>Historically, there are two methods determining election result projections: <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/11/07/the-final-forecasts-of-the-2022-election-00065376">statistical models</a> based on trends and political theory or probability sampling. Regardless of the framework, these predictions rely on one thing: accurately representing public opinion. </p>
<p>Though voting methods have slowly begun to adapt to the technological societal shift, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/08/online-voting-304013">such as online options in 2020</a>, public opinion polling remains rooted in the past. </p>
<p>Despite its vital importance to determining election forecasts, the presidential approval rating is <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/101872/how-does-gallup-polling-work.aspx">“based on interviews conducted by landline and cellular telephones.”</a> Similarly, while probability sampling often relies on aggregating data from several sources, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/27/phone-polling-crisis-1191637">most major media polls are conducted using a traditional phone methodology</a>. </p>
<p>Pop culture is ripe with anecdotes of people ignoring “cold calls,” yet public polling efforts continue to engage — or, rather, disengage — youth voters by failing to understand where they spend their time online.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young woman is photographed from behind opening the TikTok app on her smartphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pollsters are failing to engage young voters in places where they spend their time online.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How do young voters engage?</h2>
<p>In the wake of U.S. midterms results that stunned political analysts, social media buzzed with commentary from young voters. </p>
<p>One user wrote: “Before the next election, you might want to find a better way to poll anyone under the age of 30 since they would rather pick up a pinless grenade than a call from an unknown number.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1590223092315750403"}"></div></p>
<p>Of course, this was intended as a joke, but there is some factual basis in the sentiment. Millennials have already been blamed for <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/briannawiest/2019/11/04/millennials-hate-phone-calls-they-have-a-point/?sh=3929a57b517e">the death of the phone call</a>, with <a href="https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/why-millennials-ignore-calls#data">75 per cent finding them “too time-consuming” and 81 per cent admitting to feelings of anxiety before making a call.</a> </p>
<p>In any other industry, this data would signal an immediate need to pivot to a digital platform. </p>
<h2>Engaging in the right place</h2>
<p>The question of public engagement goes beyond “how” citizens are being polled. It must also ask “where.”</p>
<p>It’s not enough to simply shift polling methods from telephone-based to online. The platform where engagement happens matters. </p>
<p>Though some pollsters administered online surveys, often these were via traditional news sources. For an opinion poll to be arbitrarily administered within the same echo chamber of legacy media doesn’t bridge the gap that exists in elections data. </p>
<p>The way each generation consumes content online, particularly news, changes rapidly. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/technology/gen-z-tiktok-search-engine.html">More than 40 per cent of Gen Zers report TikTok as their preference for online searches</a>, even over Google. Increasingly, advertisers have begun to embed their consumer polling through platforms like YouTube and TikTok. </p>
<p>Other political outreach organizations have begun to recognize this and adapt their methodology. </p>
<p>In late August 2022, Élections Québec launched a <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@electionsquebec">TikTok campaign</a> to generate interest in the provincial election. Playing into viral videos (<a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@electionsquebec/video/7145604051676253446?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1">like the so-called “corn kid”</a>), some of its content garnered more than 350,000 views. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A TikTok screenshot shows the Élections Québec youth vote campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite predictions of a low voter turnout in Québec, <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/voter-turnout-in-2022-quebec-election-on-par-with-2018-1.6095056">66 per cent of the total population voted</a>.</p>
<p>While it’s difficult to empirically measure the impact of this specific political outreach method on election results, the sheer engagement on the platform and youth voter turnout speaks volumes. </p>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Above all else, the 2022 U.S. midterms offer a positive glimpse into the future. No longer can young voters be cast as apathetic and disconnected. </p>
<p>There’s now a generational shift away from voter apathy, which is beneficial across the political spectrum. </p>
<p>The disconnected, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion. </p>
<p>The “Pink Splash” offers a tough lesson in engagement for pollsters. If they continue to use traditional methods, election polls will never provide an accurate representation of what’s going to happen when voters cast their ballots.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Rodgers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The U.S. midterms revealed a generational shift away from youth voter apathy. The apathetic, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion using outdated methods.Julia Rodgers, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892042022-09-20T17:16:11Z2022-09-20T17:16:11ZWhat’s ‘deliberative’ democracy? Research in Nepal shows it could spur global youth voting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484338/original/file-20220913-4780-xlylo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C5997%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people prioritize issues in preparation for a political debate in Lalitpur, Nepal. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tom O'Neill</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After local elections in Nepal earlier this year, the <em>Kathmandu Post</em> expressed some alarm that <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/national/2022/05/15/nepalis-in-general-love-to-vote-why-is-turnout-low-then-disenchantment">Nepalis were losing interest in voting</a>. </p>
<p>Across the country, election participation fell by 10 percentage points, from 74 per cent in 2017 to 64 per cent in 2022.</p>
<p>We in Canada should envy even the lower figure as similar elections here — <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-records-lowest-voter-turnout-in-election-history-1.5931440">Ontario’s June 2022 election, in particular</a> — drew less than half of the voting populace. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22106">Voter apathy is a global phenomenon</a> and is a significant threat to democracy. Apathetic voters make it easier for autocrats and powerful interest groups to cynically manipulate election results.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531200491945766913"}"></div></p>
<p>Youth political apathy indicates distrust in contemporary political culture.</p>
<p>German sociologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2015.03.001">Karl Mannheim</a> once argued that young people must adapt the social institutions of the past to the contemporary realities they are born into. </p>
<p>But youth around the world are contending with issues today that their parents barely encountered, including precarious labour markets, extended demand for higher education, globalizing technologies and shifting gender relations. They are understandably questioning how aging democratic institutions are relevant to their needs.</p>
<p>Nepal is a new democracy, and those institutions were won after <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2008/4/8/timeline-of-nepals-civil-war-2">decades of civil war and political struggle</a>. That’s why Nepalis participate in their elections at levels that put most of the rest of the democratic world to shame. But voting is not all there is to democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a colourful fez and wearing a mask pushes a ruler inside a ballot box," src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7391%2C4160&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An election worker uses a ruler to make space inside the ballot box during local level elections in Kathmandu, Nepal, in May 2022. Nepalese people voted nationwide to elect representatives of municipalities and village development committees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Citizens make decisions</h2>
<p>In a representative democracy, voters choose which politician or political party will make decisions about contemporary realities on their behalf. Politicians and political parties have a great deal of power to define what those realities are and how they should be addressed. </p>
<p>Contesting and corrupting that power has become a central focus in many democracies. But what gets lost is the deliberative potential of democracy, in which citizens debate contemporary issues among themselves so that the decisions they make together carry more weight and are more broadly legitimate.</p>
<p><a href="https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya/vol39/iss2/6/">As a professor of youth studies, I have been researching political engagement</a> with a team of Nepali youth activists for the past decade. We took the idea of deliberative democracy to young Nepalis through a series of youth assemblies held across the country in 2018 and 2019. </p>
<p>In deliberative assemblies, also known as “mini-publics,” a group of citizens selected to accurately reflect the diversity of the population is assigned the task of deliberating a contemporary issue. They then craft a common position that is used to inform decisions made by their political representatives.</p>
<p>Deliberative assemblies have been used around the world to address issues like participatory budgeting (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329201029001003">in Porto Alegre, Brazil</a>), constitutional reform (<a href="https://www.citizensassembly.ie/en/dublin-assembly/about/about-dublin-ca.html">in Ireland</a>) and electoral reform (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592713000674">in British Columbia</a>).</p>
<p>Our youth assemblies were designed to reflect Nepal’s diversity. More than 200 youths participated, and were drawn from the <em>Brahmin-Chetris</em> castes, the traditional political elites of the country; the <em>Adivasi Janajati</em>, Nepal’s Indigenous and ethnic groups; the <em>Madhesi</em>, the culturally and linguistically distinct peoples that inhabit the plains that border India; and the <em>Dalits</em>, or “untouchable” castes that have for centuries been subjected to menial labour and debt bondage. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three young women dressed in colourful Indigenous garb smile at the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young Indigenous people of Nepal celebrate at the Ubhauli festival in Kathmandu, Nepal, in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Heated debates</h2>
<p>There was also an even balance between men and women, and participants included those who identified as LGTBQ or who had disabilities, two communities that have had little recognition in the country.</p>
<p>During the assemblies, participants were tasked with composing a collective declaration that identified five priorities for Nepal’s political leadership to address. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two grey-haired men, one wearing a fez, shake hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba shakes hands with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in New Delhi, India, in April 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manish Swarup)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The debates that led to these declarations were contentious and often heated, showing that Nepali youth had many different visions about how to define and address Nepal’s contemporary problems. There was consensus, however, on the need for broader equality and the reform of Nepal’s political culture, which is dominated by powerful, high-caste males and riddled with nepotism.</p>
<p>These declarations alone would have limited value if there were no uptake by political decision-makers. But using deliberative mini-publics as a model, youth delegates presented their declarations to a panel of political leaders from all three levels of Nepal’s government. </p>
<p>Deliberative democracy, however, is not yet a feature of Nepal’s political culture. Leaders are more familiar with mobilizing youth for political action than they are with actually heeding young people. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-lowering-the-voting-age-in-canada-is-such-a-good-idea-180108">Why lowering the voting age in Canada is such a good idea</a>
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<p>Several of the leaders invited to the assemblies politely listened to the youth declarations and then gave stump speeches as if to an election rally. But others were challenged by the youth delegates and responded to their priorities.</p>
<p>Our youth assemblies were experimental, and the political leaders who attended them were under no obligation to act upon anything they learned from them. But they did show that deliberation and dialogue can inspire political engagement. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6khEuBg0FA&ab_channel=TomONeill">documentary video</a> about our research, young Nepalis show that they are articulate, capable and passionate advocates for themselves and their communities. </p>
<p>At a time when democratic norms appear to be in decline around the world, deliberative democracy is one remedy that our research with Nepali youth suggests is worth pursuing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom O'Neill receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>At a time when democratic norms appear to be in decline around the world, deliberative democracy is one potential remedy worth pursuing.Tom O'Neill, Professor, Department of Child and Youth Studies, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1896132022-09-01T17:01:11Z2022-09-01T17:01:11ZWhy does Pierre Poilievre appeal to young Canadians? It’s all about economics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482307/original/file-20220901-15-gxmb4s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6500%2C4437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre poses for photographs with supporters at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver in April 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pierre Poilievre’s <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/08/27/pierre-poilievre-is-poised-to-become-the-next-conservative-leader-and-young-voters-are-suddenly-interested-in-his-party.html">appeal to young voters</a>, something of a novelty for Canadian Conservative politicians, raises questions about both his popularity and the ability of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) to capitalize on the trend over the long term. </p>
<p>Why has Poilievre, unlike his recent predecessors, been successful at gaining support among younger voters, and what impact could this have on the CPC’s electoral coalition?</p>
<p>Conventional political wisdom holds that age has a lot to do with political ideology — while young adults are likely to be liberal, many will become increasingly conservative as they age. In some ways, this is an exaggerated cliché. </p>
<p>Direct measurements of political attitudes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/706889">more often find that a person’s propensity to be either conservative or liberal is stable over time</a>, regardless of age. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, this conventional wisdom was evident when it came to voting behaviour in Canada. From 2015 to 2019, the Conservative Party of Canada was the most popular choice <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-are-winning-over-older-normally-conservative-voters/">for Canadian voters over 55</a>, and the Conservatives fell behind the Liberals and the NDP among voters under the age of 34.</p>
<p>Historically, this has hurt the Conservatives while also helping progressive or left-leaning candidates. An influx of support from young voters, for example, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-youth-turnout-2015-1.3636290">played a decisive role in Justin Trudeau’s electoral victory in 2015</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a burgundy T-shirt talks to three young people, a boxing ring behind him and a trainer beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau speaks with youths as a boxing trainer looks on during a campaign stop in Montréal in September 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trudeau is losing young voters</h2>
<p>But the voting behaviour of young voters is highly volatile when it comes to both turnout and party preference. Since 2015, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/as-millennials-fall-out-of-love-with-trudeau-liberals-need-to-stop-the-bleed-towards-the-ndp">Trudeau’s Liberals have lost most of their support among young voters</a> as younger Canadians either supported other parties, became undecided or stopped voting entirely.</p>
<p>Currently, most voters under 34 are, as with most other Canadians, likely to <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-is-shedding-support-among-dislocated-younger-voters-1.1767474">express a lack of confidence in the performance of Trudeau as prime minister</a>. </p>
<p>Most youth support between 2015 and 2021 has instead gone to the NDP and its leader, Jagmeet Singh. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-jagmeet-singh-wants-to-attract-more-young-voters-and-hes-using-tiktok/">By deliberately targeting the demographic</a> through its policy and social media campaigns, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-who-leads-among-young-voters-the-ndp/">the party was the clear favourite of young voters in the 2019 and 2021 elections</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in a pink turban sits among a row of young people listening to someone speak off-camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh listens to youth speak about their experiences during a campaign stop in Toronto in September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
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<p>Recently, however, much of this youth support for the Liberals and NDP now appears to be shifting again. For the first time since the 1980s, recent polls show that a <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-young-people-seem-to-be-leaning-tory-possibly-for-the-first-time-ever">plurality, although not a majority, of young voters now support the Conservative Party</a>. </p>
<p>This has been mostly attributed to Poilievre who, more than his rivals for the party leadership, has generated much of this enthusiasm.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1563594383651287041"}"></div></p>
<h2>Poilievre’s electoral edge?</h2>
<p>It’s possible these polls could shift before the next federal election, likely in 2025. But they nonetheless raise the possibility of a novel electoral advantage that a Poilievre-led Conservative party could bring to the next several federal votes. </p>
<p>Poilievre’s growing popularity among young voters is likely due to how he’s seized upon an opening by providing coherent messaging that addresses the general state of dissatisfaction and the economic anxieties that are weighing on young Canadians. </p>
<p>That includes continuing frustrations about the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/half-of-canadians-under-30-have-given-up-on-owning-a-single-family-home-survey-1.5699344">inaccessibility of home ownership</a>, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/08/06/paycheque-to-paycheque-inflation-is-hitting-low-income-canadians-hard.html">income instability and inflation</a>. </p>
<p>The continuing detrimental economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/11/30/young-adults-hit-hard-by-pandemics-economic-impact-survey-suggests.html">have also affected this demographic the most</a>, contributing to perceptions of a <a href="https://thehub.ca/2021-05-21/ben-woodfinden-homeowners-will-soon-be-our-new-aristocracy/">growing divide</a> between older, economically established generations and younger adults. </p>
<p>This has also created a popular feeling among many young voters that the Trudeau government needs to be replaced. </p>
<p>In addition to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-election-missteps-factbox-idUSKBN1W422D">series of missteps and scandals</a> that have eroded Trudeau’s personal popularity, the government is also perceived as being unable to deal with these growing economic concerns.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a yellow turban shakes hands with another man. Both are smiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">NDP leader Jagmeet Singh meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Parliament Hill in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Because <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-ndp-accord-confidence-supply-agreement-1.6397985">the NDP entered into an agreement with the Liberals</a> allowing them to deliver on beneficial policies like dental-care coverage, the party is now limited in its ability to craft and convey a coherent alternative to the Liberal government. </p>
<p>This is even though New Democrats have, along with Poilievre, been engaging in populist attacks about economic elites for not <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-calls-action-make-rich-and-powerful-pay-their-fair-share">“paying their fair share.”</a> The NDP’s ongoing support for the Liberals has come at the cost of credibly tapping into a growing anti-Liberal sentiment by compromising their position as a principled adversary — giving Poilievre yet another opening to electoral success.</p>
<p>In contrast, Poilievre offers a coherent, semi-populist appeal that prioritizes these problems, provides a common cause or enemy and proposes solutions within Conservative policies.</p>
<h2>Attacking the elites</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/fire_the_gatekeepers">Poilievre has identified a set of “gatekeepers”</a> that include all-powerful interests and established voices in Canadian public life as the source of these problems, including progressive urbanites, government bureaucrats and financial elites. In working to maintain their privilege, says Poilievre, these gatekeepers have compromised the opportunities available to ordinary Canadians. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1529920481423413253"}"></div></p>
<p>Recalibrating these existing institutions to align with a renewed desire for <a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/poilievre_would_protect_free_speech_from_gatekeepers">“freedom” is presented as the solution</a>, allowing Poilievre to repackage and legitimize conventional conservative emphases on free markets, deregulation and small government. </p>
<p>His platform’s appeal lies in the fact that it’s simultaneously coherent enough to appeal to Conservative partisans and, at the same time, vague enough to allow young voters to apply their own dissatisfaction or economic anxiety through this gatekeeper/freedom narrative.</p>
<p>Poilievre’s momentum among younger people, if maintained, could bring the CPC a notable electoral advantage in the next election. But given the fact it’s derived from an anti-Liberal sentiment, it’s difficult to determine if it will have a long-term impact. </p>
<p>The party may struggle to retain young voters in the years ahead, likely because younger Canadians care about issues that the Conservatives perform poorly on, like <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/05/19/youth-focused-on-affordability-climate-in-this-election-future-majority.html">climate change and social equity</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s also possible a much deeper and structural change among younger voters is afoot that is making them more conservative, both economically and socially.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503">As scholars of populism have argued</a>, the significant economic, social, demographic and technological changes of the last decade have produced a state of displacement and uncertainty that’s pushing emerging adults into conservative politics. If so, it’s good news for Poilievre.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pierre Poilievre’s momentum among young Canadians, if maintained, could bring the Conservative Party of Canada a notable electoral advantage in the next election.Sam Routley, PhD Student, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1868022022-07-15T12:18:04Z2022-07-15T12:18:04ZMore young voters could come out to vote in November, sparked by abortion and other hot political issues<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473948/original/file-20220713-9360-2l5kus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=263%2C95%2C3712%2C2502&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Abortion-rights activists gather in front of the Supreme Court in May 2022 ahead of the Dobbs decision. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/prochoice-demonstrators-gather-in-front-of-the-us-supreme-court-in-picture-id1240609506?s=2048x2048">Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">decision to overturn</a> the constitutional right to abortion has far-reaching personal and political implications and may help decide the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/upshot/poll-2022-midterms-congress.html">midterm elections</a> in November 2022.</p>
<p>That influence extends to young people’s election participation. People ages 18 to 29 have <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/our-research/broadening-youth-voting">historically been less likely to vote than older adults</a>. But in recent years, they have been spurred to organize and vote by major national controversies, like school shootings and police violence against Black people.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/">researcher with more than 20 years of experience</a> tracking youth voting and examining young people’s political views and engagement, I believe that the fight over abortion rights now taking place in states has strong potential to motivate and mobilize young voters on both sides of the issue – and that their participation could be decisive in key races around the country.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign says 'I voted' in a voting room, with one young man walking holding a ballot" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473949/original/file-20220713-9316-1arfo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters cast their ballots at Santa Monica College in September 2021 to vote on whether California Gov. Gavin Newsom should remain in office.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/students-staff-and-nearby-residents-cast-their-ballots-at-ucla-union-picture-id1235261789?s=2048x2048">Al Seib/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Young people are supportive of abortion rights</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/07/06/majority-of-public-disapproves-of-supreme-courts-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade/">62% of Americans</a> support abortion’s being legal in all or most cases, according to Pew Research polling from July 2022. But that view is even more widely held among people ages 18 to 29 – 70% of people in that age group support legal abortion.</p>
<p>Other recent polling puts young people’s support for abortion even higher – a CBS/YouGov survey conducted in June 2022, shortly after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, found that <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/hrccnn75ps/cbsnews_20220626_recontact.pdf">78% of young people favor legal abortion</a>.</p>
<p>Young people are also the most likely age group to disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional right to an abortion. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/07/06/majority-of-public-disapproves-of-supreme-courts-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade/">Sixty-nine percent of young people disapprove of the ruling</a>, compared with 60% of adults ages 30 to 49 and half of Americans older than 49. </p>
<p>Women and people of color across all age groups – especially Black and Asian Americans – are also more likely than men and white people to disapprove of the Supreme Court’s ruling.</p>
<p>That’s notable because young women and young women of color, in particular, have led civic and electoral participation in recent years. <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/2020-youth-voter-turnout-raceethnicity-and-gender">Young women voted at a higher rate than young men in 2020</a>. <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-women-color-continue-lead-civic-and-political-engagement">Young women of color were more likely</a> to talk to their peers about politics, attend demonstrations and register others to vote than young white women.</p>
<p>Nearly half of young women said that they supported or were active participants in the reproductive rights movement, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-womens-political-engagement-elections-and-beyond">according to my 2018 survey</a> of people ages 18 to 24. Women of color were more likely to be involved in the reproductive rights movement than young white women, our survey found. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young white people hold up signs bearing slogans such as 'Roe is dead' outside the Supreme Court building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474006/original/file-20220713-13035-u0f7at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anti-abortion protesters demonstrate outside the Supreme Court.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/prolife-supporters-celebrate-outside-the-us-supreme-court-in-dc-on-picture-id1241500916?s=2048x2048">Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Many young people want action on abortion</h2>
<p>For some young people, political engagement goes beyond abortion, as <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/spring-2022-harvard-youth-poll">a spring 2022 Harvard poll</a> found that about half of young people think the country is on the wrong track. </p>
<p>And 41% of 18-to-29-year-olds surveyed in another poll <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/hrccnn75ps/cbsnews_20220626_recontact.pdf">say the Dobbs decision</a> makes them more likely to vote in the midterms. In the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/07/06/majority-of-public-disapproves-of-supreme-courts-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade/">Pew Research survey mentioned above</a>, over two-thirds of those under 30 reported at least somewhat disapproving of the court decision. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/change-research-midterms-vibe-check">Other surveys</a> suggest that specific policies and laws to protect abortion access are top priorities to young voters.</p>
<p>When young people want action on issues they care about, like abortion, they can feel motivated to push political leaders. Their <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2022/06/13/biden-approval-rating-young-voters-decline/">disappointment or disillusionment with particular politicians</a> does not necessarily mean they’re disillusioned about their own political power. On the other hand, those who oppose abortion rights may now harbor positive feelings about politics: 19% of young people in the CBS/YouGov survey said they felt “happy” about the recent decision.</p>
<p>In 2018, my survey of young people before that year’s midterm election found that feeling more disappointed or cynical about politics actually <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/ahead-2018-midterms-new-generation-finds-its-political-voice">led to a higher, not lower, likelihood to vote</a>. </p>
<p>According to my estimates, the percentage of young people who voted more than doubled from the 2014 midterm election to the 2018 midterms – <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/28-young-people-voted-2018">rising from 13% to 28%</a>. My research group’s analyses suggest multiple reasons for this jump, including many groups’ starting voter registration much earlier in the year, and the <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/gun-violence-prevention-movement-fueled-youth-engagement-2018-election">youth-led activism after the Parkland school shooting</a>.</p>
<p>In 2020 a similar dynamic played out nationally following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by police officers in Minneapolis. <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/poll-young-people-believe-they-can-lead-change-unprecedented-election-cycle">In a CIRCLE pre-election survey</a>, young people ranked racism as the second-biggest issue that would influence their vote for president, just behind the environment and climate change. About 50% of youths voted during the 2020 election, compared with 39% of young people who <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/half-youth-voted-2020-11-point-increase-2016">did so in 2016</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two young women wear blue shirts and face masks and hold clipboards." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473950/original/file-20220713-20-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two young political activists try to register college students at Auraria Campus, home to three universities, in Denver, Colo., in September 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/nicole-hensel-left-and-raegan-cotton-of-new-era-colorado-are-trying-picture-id1275521582?s=2048x2048">Hyoung Chang/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Youths can swing elections in key states</h2>
<p>The youth vote can decisively shape election results at every level. In 2020, for example, young people <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#young-voters-and-youth-of-color-powered-biden-victory">cast hundreds of thousands of votes in key battleground states</a> like Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia, helping President Joe Biden win all three states and Democratic senators win in Arizona and Georgia. </p>
<p>Now that states are deciding on their own abortion laws, young voters’ ballots in gubernatorial and other state and local races may be especially critical in such places as <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2022">Pennsylvania</a> and <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/07/07/battleground-ballot-box-georgia-reacts-supreme-court-abortion-decision">Georgia</a>, where new abortion restrictions are a possibility depending on election results. </p>
<p>The potential for impact is there – not just for the majority of young people who support abortion, but for the significant minority who oppose it – 32% of people ages 18 to 29 in the CBS/YouGov poll said they approve of the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion.</p>
<p>Nevada, Maryland and Maine rank among the top 10 states where young people could decide governor races, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/yesi2022">according to my research</a>. All three states have abortion protections in place, which could motivate young people to vote for candidates who share their position on abortion, whether for or against abortion rights.</p>
<p><em>CIRCLE team members Ruby Belle Booth, Megan Lam and Alberto Medina contributed to this analysis.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abby has worked on research projects funded by private foundations including: the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, Youth Engagement Fund, the Democracy Fund, the Spencer Foundation, Ford Foundation, The Pew Charitable Trusts, MacArthur Foundation, the Omidyar Network, the Knight Foundation, Tides Foundation, the Bernard and Audre Rapoport Foundation. She is affiliated with Rock the Vote's Democracy Class (Advisory Council), Generation Citizen/Vote16USA (Advisory Board), and the Rural Youth Catalyst Project's Changing the Outcomes for Rural Youth Working Group.</span></em></p>As many as 80% of young people want abortion to be legal, and most disagree with the Supreme Court’s recent Dobbs v. Jackson ruling. This could lead to high youth voting rates in the 2022 midterms.Abby Kiesa, Deputy Director at CIRCLE, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1860372022-07-14T01:29:01Z2022-07-14T01:29:01ZLabor promised a new committee of 15 young people to guide policy. So who gets picked, and how?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471508/original/file-20220629-26-zlvpua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C106%2C5472%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-31/anthony-albanese-announces-labor-ministry/101113130">announced Anne Aly</a> is Australia’s new minister for youth. This will restore youth consultation to government decision-making after the abolition in 2013 of the Youth Advisory Council and the Office for Youth.</p>
<p>Labor has promised a <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/youth-engagement">new youth engagement model</a> driven by a steering committee of up to 15 young people.</p>
<p>Getting this panel of 15 young people right will be crucial to its effectiveness. Here are three factors to consider.</p>
<h2>1. Young Australians are diverse</h2>
<p>Generation Z (10–24 years old) <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2021-census-shows-millennials-overtaking-boomers">represents</a> about 18% of Australia and about 30% of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.</p>
<p>(Looking at an older cohort of young people, Australian Bureau of Statistics data show about 3.2 million young people aged between 15–24 years made up 12% of the Australian population in 2020).</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/10479663/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:500px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/10479663/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/10479663" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<p>ABS data show 74.5% of young people lived in major cities, 16.6% lived in inner regional areas and 8.9% live in outer regional, remote and very remote areas. So including voices from regional, rural and remote Australia on the government youth advisory committee will be important.</p>
<p>According to 2019 <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/children-youth/australias-youth/contents/demographics#technical-notes">data</a>, about a quarter of young people aged 15–24 were born overseas; 9.3% had a disability; just over half (51%) were male, 49% female; and 6.1% identified as gay, lesbian or having another sexual orientation.</p>
<p>Other Australian Bureau of Statistics data is notably limited. Questions in the recent census <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/Queer_Young_People_in_Australia_Insights_from_the_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/19719532">were not inclusive of a wider spectrum</a> of gender and sexuality.</p>
<p>So, finding 15 people who can advise on behalf of such a diverse constituency is no easy feat.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1536561650228203521"}"></div></p>
<h2>2. The population is changing</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/children-youth/australias-youth/contents/demographics#technical-notes">demographic makeup of Australia</a> is shifting. From 1971 to 2020, the population of people aged 15–24 grew from 2.3 million to 3.2 million. </p>
<p>But sustained low fertility and increased life expectancy has also meant their proportion relative to the Australian population is declining.</p>
<p>In 2021 we released our <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">Australian Youth Barometer</a>, which drew on a survey of more than 500 Australians aged 18-24, and interviews with 30 more about health, education, employment, money, housing, food, safety and citizenship.</p>
<p>We found just under a quarter of young people are pessimistic about having children in the future.</p>
<p>Young people remain a significant proportion of the population and their choices will continue to shape the future demographic makeup of Australia. The 15-person youth advisory committee should seek to reflect the range of views among Australian young people on issues such as family and future. </p>
<h2>3. Who puts their hand up?</h2>
<p>Who typically volunteers to participate on such a steering committee? Attempts at youth representation sometimes skew towards those most likely to self-nominate, such as the highly educated, articulate and confident.</p>
<p>But often it’s those least likely to put their hand up whose voice we need to hear the most.</p>
<p>Voices from disadvantaged backgrounds can be particularly absent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government’s approach must reflect the diversity of young people, include voices less commonly heard and address the big-ticket items identified by young people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The stakes are high for young people</h2>
<p>As Labor <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/youth-engagement">notes</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>younger people now face a future of high underemployment, depleted retirement savings, significant barriers to education and training, and a rent and housing affordability crisis.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While youth underemployment <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-39">has slightly fallen</a> recently, it remains pervasive. Australia also has the <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/government/government-matters/youth-unemployment.html">fourth-highest incidence of part-time employment</a> in the OECD.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-14/survey-home-ownership-not-an-option-for-most-young-australians/100205244">65% of Australians believe</a> owning a home is no longer an option for most young Australians.</p>
<p>Climate change <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-26/young-people-climate-change-what-does-future-hold/100950770">looms large</a>. An Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience <a href="https://www.aidr.org.au/media/7946/ourworldoursay-youth-survey-report-2020.pdf">survey</a> of 1,447 Australians aged 10–24 found more than 80% of participants above the age of 16 were concerned about climate change.</p>
<p>Looking at data from the 2021 <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">Australian Youth Barometer</a>, 20-year-old Rebecca from our Youth Reference Group said many young people feel ignored and so turn to</p>
<blockquote>
<p>protesting and using social media to share their voices and enact their agency. It is important that the diversity of young people’s voices are being listened to, encouraged, and supported.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Young people are also acutely aware – and critical – of the standards set by politicians.</p>
<p>One female <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">survey respondent</a>, aged 21, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In parliament there are people who are getting sexually assaulted and the government doesn’t say jack shit about it […] You don’t understand the dangers of being a woman.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many young people don’t feel that politicians actually listened or respected them.</p>
<p>As one young Indigenous person told us in a different piece of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14681366.2021.1891451">research</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[politicians] have no respect for Aboriginal people […] There was a big debate about ‘was this country settled’ […] It wasn’t settled, it was invaded.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Going beyond the committee</h2>
<p>It’s encouraging that the new government is seeking to engage with young people, which strikes a different note to their predecessors (remember when politicians told School Strike 4 Climate Action protesters to “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/kids-should-be-in-school-student-protest-goers-cop-criticism-from-politicians/0obu5u1ro">stay in school</a>”?)</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/youth-engagement">new government has vowed</a> to engage with young people in a way that goes</p>
<blockquote>
<p>beyond the committee, by incorporating local forums, workshops, and town halls for young Australians to directly engage in debate and offer their perspectives and ideas.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is promising; too often, young people’s voices are sought in tokenistic or symbolic ways. </p>
<p>But the government’s approach must reflect the diversity of young people, include voices less commonly heard and address the big-ticket items identified by young people.</p>
<p>As one 20-year-old from Victoria <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">told us</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Obviously, we’re going to be the future leaders, presidents, prime ministers and treasurers and all that, so we have to make sure that we have our priorities set now, going into the future, so that when we do take over, we know what plans and goals to achieve and what action to take.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-up-in-a-disadvantaged-neighbourhood-can-change-kids-brains-and-their-reactions-184145">Growing up in a disadvantaged neighbourhood can change kids' brains – and their reactions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186037/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Walsh is a Chief Investigator of The Q Project, a partnership between Monash University and the Paul Ramsay Foundation investigating and improving the use of research by educators. This story is part of The Conversation's Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.</span></em></p>Too often, young people’s voices are sought in tokenistic or symbolic ways. Can Labor’s new youth engagement model do things differently?Lucas Walsh, Professor and Director of the Centre for Youth Policy and Education Practice, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1841592022-06-05T20:02:56Z2022-06-05T20:02:56ZYoung Australian voters helped swing the election – and could do it again next time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466733/original/file-20220602-22-pl2w0u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C0%2C5079%2C2706&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens supporters celebrate on election night. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2022 federal election saw a significant <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/two-parties-are-no-longer-preferred-20220522-p5angn">move away</a> from the two major parties, with a host of independent and Greens candidates taking seats from Labor and the Coalition. </p>
<p>Amid predictions about a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">youthquake</a>” before May 21, what role did young voters play in this radical electoral shift? And how important could they be by the next election?</p>
<h2>The trend was there</h2>
<p>Even before the election, researchers had noted major differences between younger and older voters.</p>
<p>Long-term <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">voting patterns</a> showed <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/December/The_2019_Australian_Election_Study">Labor</a> was more likely to attract young voters. But surveys also showed how both the major parties have been losing their youth vote to the Greens.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Voters at the polling booth on Election Day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Younger voters were trending away from the major parties before the 2022 poll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">Australian Election Study</a> found after the 2019 election, 42% of voters under 24 did not vote for Labor or the Coalition. Of those aged 25 to 34, 35% did not vote for Labor or the Coalition. This compares to just 12% of those aged over 65.</p>
<p>We also know younger voters were more concerned about environmental issues and property prices than older voters. None of these were adequately addressed during the last term of parliament, which was <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-voters-will-inherit-a-hotter-more-dangerous-world-but-their-climate-interests-are-being-ignored-this-election-182663">marred</a> by frightening bushfires, heat waves and floods, and saw inadequate action on climate change and rising intergenerational inequality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australians-are-supposedly-turning-their-backs-on-democracy-but-are-they-any-different-from-older-voters-163891">Young Australians are supposedly 'turning their backs' on democracy, but are they any different from older voters?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Clear wins on May 21</h2>
<p>So it is not surprising that electorates with the highest rate of voters under 30 saw unprecedented support for Greens in 2022. An analysis of <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/elector_count/index.htm">AEC enrolment data</a> shows seats with four of the top five highest proportions of young voters (18-29 year-olds) went to the Greens. This includes: </p>
<ul>
<li>Melbourne with a youth vote of 26.9% (Greens retain)</li>
<li>Brisbane with a youth vote of 25.7% (Greens gain from the Liberal Party)</li>
<li>Griffith with a youth vote of 24.7% (Greens gain from Labor)</li>
<li>Ryan with a youth vote of 22.5% (Greens gain from the Liberal Party)</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="YnO4F" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/YnO4F/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Also in the top five was the seat of Canberra with a youth vote of 23.1%. This was an easy Labor retain. However, here the Greens primary vote was almost 25% and the Greens, not the Liberal Party, were used for the two-party-preferred calculations.</p>
<p>There were also a relatively high rate of youth enrolment in key seats likes Kooyong (20.8%, independent gain from Liberals) and Fowler (19.5%, independent gain from Labor). There were other Liberal-turned-teal seats with a relatively lower proportion of youth voters (Curtin 17.7%, Wentworth 17.1%, Goldstein 16.3%, North Sydney 16.3% and Mackellar 15.6%). But it is important to acknowledge the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/women-stormed-2022-federal-election-what-has-labor-pledged/101091444">women’s vote</a> may have been a stronger driving force in these seats. </p>
<p>So, what does this mean electorally going forward?</p>
<h2>The big debate about young voters</h2>
<p>Leading up to the election there was a lot of speculation about young people’s voting behaviour. As other countries recorded a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/upshot/youth-voting-2020-election.html">worrying decline</a> in youth electoral participation, I <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">argued</a> young Australians are different. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">What will young Australians do with their vote – are we about to see a 'youthquake'?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Still, there was concern the backdrop of COVID suffering, economic inequality, climate inaction and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/australians-faith-in-politics-has-collapsed-how-can-we-reimagine-democracy">decaying trust</a> in political leaders would culminate in youth political disengagement. Clearly, this did not happen.</p>
<h2>Parties and politicians now are on notice</h2>
<p>The election shows how the centre of gravity of Australian politics has shifted. The various swings away from the major parties revealed just how discerning voters can be. It also showed voters are likely to act based on policy concerns, rather than political allegiances.</p>
<p>The oldest millennial voters were 42 at this election, while first-time voters of 18 years of age included members of Generation Z. So, some of this can be attributed to generational replacement as the polls populate with more progressive, apartisan younger voters. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young voter walks past election advertising at the polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ahead of the election, there were fears young people would disengage with voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This trend is only going to increase. A basic analysis of current enrolments, plus expected future enrolments suggests that by the next election, millennial voters and younger (those under 45) will make up about 44% of the voting population. This is similar to this election – where they made up 43% – but significantly up from ten or 20 years ago. That means what we consider to be younger generations are replacing their older counterparts - and their more conservative values - over time in the electorate. </p>
<p>The 2022 election also sends a crucial political signal to the younger voters. The results show them the power of their actions to affect change in Australia’s democracy – and that the vote, in an aggregate sense, is an effective tool to do so. The 2022 federal election was one to restore young people’s hope and faith in the Australian democratic system. </p>
<p>Major parties need to acknowledge that younger voters do not like what they are offering, especially in response to climate change. If Labor is hoping to woo them back in 2025, it is interesting that “Minister for Youth” is <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-government-full-ministry">not a cabinet position</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531936824431882240"}"></div></p>
<p>In the lead-up to their electoral success, the Greens worked hard in Brisbane – courting voters with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-28/greens-win-brisbane-seat-electorate-federal-election/101104170">young, personable candidates</a> who went <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/australian-greens-hails-best-result-ever-with-dramatic-gains-in-lower-house-and-senate">door-to-door</a> to speak to voters directly. But they need to keep working. The Greens and teal victories were a virtue of issue-based voters, who will be watching whether these new MPs make change in Canberra. </p>
<p>Young voters in Australia can no longer be ignored.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid predictions about a “youthquake” before May 21, what role did young voters play in this radical electoral shift?Intifar Chowdhury, Associate lecturer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822922022-05-10T20:01:34Z2022-05-10T20:01:34ZElection humour 2022: can the major parties win votes with a funny marmot or a joke about Star Wars?<p>The 2022 election campaign seems longer than Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow. And there is still ten days to go. But that does not mean the whole thing is without lighter moments.</p>
<p>Humour is an important and inescapable tool of persuasion used by politicians, parties and their allies during election campaigns. </p>
<p>What are we seeing in 2022?</p>
<p>Neither Prime Minister Scott Morrison or Labor leader Anthony Albanese are renowned as great wits, in contrast to Gough Whitlam and other former prime ministers who thrived in more freewheeling times. </p>
<p>Instead, humour is now a campaign function that can be supplied by party or non-party specialists – not necessarily comedy specialists – as part of heavily managed campaigns. </p>
<h2>The power of a joke</h2>
<p>Humour is a funny thing because of its many ways, receptions and uses. It is not always light-hearted and inoffensive, as fans of <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/transcript-ricky-gervais-golden-globes-2020-opening-monologue-1266516/">Ricky Gervais</a> or <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gusalexiou/2022/03/30/chris-rocks-oscars-alopecia-jibe--when-do-jokes-about-body-difference-stop-being-funny/?sh=26e2d1cc4f95">Chris Rock</a> know. </p>
<p>Many of us think celebrities deserve such ridicule, just as we think politicians deserve mockery laced with malice or <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233441585_The_pleasures_of_political_humour_in_Australian_demOuocracy">schadenfreude</a>. Our tradition of stereotyping politicians as corrupt began 300 years ago with satirists such as Jonathan Swift, the writer of Gulliver’s Travels.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/funny-that-why-humour-is-a-hit-and-miss-affair-on-the-election-campaign-trail-116513">Funny, that: why humour is a hit-and-miss affair on the election campaign trail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Humour is not always subversive in politics, although comedians like Australia’s Charlie Pickering think their work <a href="https://www.broadsheet.com.au/sydney/entertainment/article/charlie-pickering-shelf-stacking-tv-studios#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CThere's%20an%20architecture%20behind%20power,holds%20them%20there%20is%20useful.%E2%80%9D">speaks</a> “truth to power”. After all, it can be used to reinforce community values or <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Laughter_and_Ridicule/OUJ3k2jPSbUC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=michael+billig+humour+bergson+laughter+is+the+mechanism+of+social+discipline&pg=PA128&printsec=frontcover">discipline</a> those who step outside social conventions, for instance in the struggle against <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/topics/voices/culture/article/2017/02/21/why-you-should-laugh-racism">racism</a>.</p>
<h2>Humour as a campaign tool</h2>
<p>Humour can also be a positive campaign tool, enhancing the credibility of politicians, even if by association. </p>
<p>Independent candidate Zoe Daniel <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/grace-tame-and-zoe-daniel-bring-the-laughs-20220411-p5acmx.html">appeared</a> in a session of the recent Melbourne Comedy Festival with advocate Grace Tame and comedian and <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/03/23/dan-ilic-its-not-a-race-election/">anti-fossil fuel campaigner</a> Dan Ilic. Apart from looking like a good sport she also <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/grace-tame-mocks-scomo-in-first-gig-at-melbourne-comedy-festival/news-story/dedb047becbc952fc5267137f6eec499">benefited</a> from their mockery of her Liberal opponent in Goldstein, Tim Wilson, and Morrison. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Early voting station in Queensland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the start of early voting, the scramble for votes has intensified.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clearly, humour can be used by a party as a negative tool when getting an audience to laugh at an opponent and diminish their reputation. </p>
<p>To these ends, memes have been important tools since the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/how-the-parties-are-using-memes-to-get-your-vote-this-election/7487426">2016</a> federal election, repurposing culture with ironic humour in order to reach disengaged voters. </p>
<p>This continued in 2019 with the Liberals aiming to dominate the digital conflict with lots of posts. However, this means quantity can come at the expense of humorous quality. </p>
<h2>The 2022 campaign</h2>
<p>This time, the Liberals seem to replaying their success of three years ago with humour, focusing their efforts on Facebook (aimed at all ages) and, to a lesser extent, Instagram but not Twitter.</p>
<p>Since the start of the election campaign on April 10, the Liberals have had a clear lead in Facebook numbers. The federal Liberals have 1.1 million followers and had 1.69 million interactions and 1.96 million video views compared to Labor with 509,000, 1.21 million and 1.21 million. </p>
<p>But the Liberals have declined from a big start and Labor has caught up on average number of daily posts and getting better interaction rates. </p>
<p>Liberal humour hasn’t always garnered great success because of the strategy of quantity over quality. This includes a mock poster for “a new series by Flip-flop-flix”.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FLiberalPartyAustralia%2Fposts%2F545269506957380&show_text=true&width=500" width="100%" height="590" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>According to the Crowdtangle research tool, it only got 1.3 times less interactions than the average comparable Liberal post. Similar under-performing videos include the “Chronicles of Marles” at -1.7 times and a Star Wars <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=959885104700792">themed post</a> at -3.2 times with only 1,800 views. </p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?height=476&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FLiberalPartyAustralia%2Fvideos%2F554703826274046%2F&show_text=false&width=476&t=0" width="100%" height="500px" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>The Liberal’s <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/544704410347223">007 meme</a> - “flip-flopped, not stirred” - fared modestly well according to Crowdtangle, with 6.3 times the average (5,300 reactions, 1,000 comments and 1,000 shares), according to the Facebook ad library. A <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/531406828343648">Gump meme</a>, received a score of 5.7 times and more than 7,000 interactions.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FLiberalPartyAustralia%2Fposts%2F531406828343648&show_text=true&width=500" width="100%" height="590" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>Some Liberal videos have also done modestly well. One that <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/544125917071739">edited Albanese</a> into an appearance before Judge Judy received about 23,500 views. This falls short of their standard “serious” posts criticising Albanese, such as two focusing on his failure to remember the unemployment rate which got <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/536574714493526">160,000</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/536769327807398">80,000</a> views, according to Crowdtangle. </p>
<h2>Labor jokes</h2>
<p>Labor has been focusing its efforts more on Instagram and on TikTok, where we know younger voters spend most of their time. Only 23% of under <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">35s</a> voted for the Coalition in 2019, so this is an important demographic for the ALP. </p>
<p>On TikTok, Labor has a huge lead, with 76,400 followers, 1.6 million likes and 3.4 million views since April 10. This is compared to the Greens with 15,000, 206,800 and 1.47 million respectively and the Liberal Party with 1,900, 22,700 and 499,000. </p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Falpspicymemes%2Fposts%2F360044482824297&show_text=true&width=500" width="100%" height="396" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>Labor has been using its channel to poke fun at Morrison’s “raw” <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7094863348524731649?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&lang=en">chicken curry</a> and has made use of <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7094500613265820929?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&lang=en">well-known marmot footage</a> to joke about the absence of disgraced education minister Alan Tudge during the campaign. </p>
<p>One Labor post with about 157,000 views depicts Morrison as a brute from the video game <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7091467953706700034?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&lang=en">Halo</a> bashing young people and making housing unaffordable, playing on their <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/young-voters-believe-homeownership-out-of-reach-name-cost-of-living-top-priority-20220419-p5aeih.html">fears</a> about the issue. </p>
<p>Another Labor <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7093682627147746561?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1">TikTok</a> with about 23,000 views splices a blinking Morrison replying, “It’s not my job” to Princess Leia from Star Wars begging for help. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-691" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/691/d9eb5fd0f3051ec5d68d6b69966d36fe88823d06/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Other players</h2>
<p>Non-party players are also helping to fight the election with humour. </p>
<p>Controversial political commentator and comedian Jordan Shanks (also known as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/22/john-barilaro-tells-court-he-felt-broken-after-friendlyjordies-videos-appeared-on-youtube">Friendlyjordies</a>) is not an ALP contractor but is effectively a Labor party satirist in the same fashion that Swift was for the Tories in the 18th century. Shanks openly advocates for <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044249598356/posts/525632918921690">Labor</a> and has the advantage of being more risque than the party can be. He regularly gets between 150,000 and 500,000 views on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/friendlyjordies/videos">Youtube</a> and on <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@friendlyjordies">Tiktok</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, satirical website Juice Media usually excoriates the “shit-fuckery” of the Coalition in “honest government ads”. The latest instalment has so far earned more than 500,000 views and supports the “not-shit” independents. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Gz4IkzM217U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>Labor’s internal <a href="https://alp.org.au/media/2043/alp-campaign-review-2019.pdf">review</a> of the 2019 election found the party had dropped behind the Coalition when it came to digital strategy. </p>
<p>But this time, the record seems more mixed when it comes to humour. Of course, we await post-election analysis, but it is clear both parties view humour as a serious way of undermining their opponents. </p>
<p>Yet, there is no assurance that a catchy meme or a clever pop culture reference will convert voters to either party’s policies or leaders. It is possible they can be preaching to the converted, which is fine for bolstering political identity but not for boosting votes among the uncommitted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Rolfe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Humour is now part of the modern election campaign. Facebook and TikTok have become joke battlegrounds.Mark Rolfe, Honorary lecturer, School of Social Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1819372022-05-03T13:09:39Z2022-05-03T13:09:39ZHow Marine Le Pen managed to gain ground with youth voters – and why her success isn’t being replicated by the US right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460836/original/file-20220502-6157-n6xhg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C696%2C4120%2C1776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Marine Le Pen going down well with her young supporters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/frances-far-right-party-rassemblement-national-leader-news-photo/1391462840?adppopup=true">Chesnot/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen may have missed out on the French presidency, falling <a href="https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html">17 pecentage points short</a> of incumbent Emmanuel Macron <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/24/world/french-election-runoff-results">in a runoff</a> held April 24, 2022. But to characterize her campaign as a total loss would be missing an essential point: with nearly 41.2% of the vote, a far-right contender came closer to securing the French presidency than at any point in the past.</p>
<p>She outperformed the previous two times that her party got through to the final round. In 2017, Le Pen received only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/may/07/french-presidential-election-results-latest">33.9% of the vote</a>. Her father and predecessor as head of the Front National – now rebranded as Rassemblement National, or National Rally – won <a href="http://www.electionresources.org/fr/president.php?election=2002">just 17.8% of the vote</a> in the 2002 runoff.</p>
<p>Marine Le Pen is enjoying an undeniable, upward trend in popularity.</p>
<h2>Chasing the youth vote</h2>
<p>The growth in support for France’s far right isn’t taking place in a vacuum. A wave of populist sentiment has swept across <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62855-4">much of Europe</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/532781-the-future-of-populism-in-america/">and North America</a> in the last few years. Moreover, the French and American far right have demonstrated a <a href="https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/candace-owens-invitee-de-marion-marechal-macron-n-est-pas-un-leader-fort-21-09-2019-8156766.php">mutual admiration</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20220215-%C3%A9ric-zemmour-se-f%C3%A9licite-d-un-long-et-chaleureux-entretien-t%C3%A9l%C3%A9phonique-avec-donald-trump">exchange of strategies</a>. The French right’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/14/the-french-right-is-obsessed-with-fighting-wokeness/">fight against “wokisme”</a> echoes American conservative discourse around critical race theory. Similarly, the American right <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/tucker-carlson-pushes-racist-great-replacement-theory-yet-again-adl-renews-call-for-fox-to-fire-him">has drawn inspiration</a> from French writer Renaud Camus’ <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/fr/2019/09/20/world/europe/renaud-camus-grand-replacement.html">white nationalist</a> idea of a “<a href="https://www.adl.org/education/references/hate-symbols/you-will-not-replace-us">grand remplacement</a>,” which holds that white populations and culture are being replaced by non-white, non-Christian people.</p>
<p>But the results of the recent election show something beyond a general growth in support for the far right – something that is happening on both sides of the Atlantic. The French right is succeeding in one key demographic that the <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2021/06/28/global-right-wing-authoritarian-test/">American right has seemingly failed to capture</a>: youth voters.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2022/second-tour-profil-des-abstentionnistes-et-sociologie-des-electorats">Analysis of the presidential runoff</a> shows that 49% of 25-34 year olds who voted opted for Le Pen – compared to just over 41% of the general population, and 29% of voters over 70.</p>
<p>This wasn’t always the case. Like in the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/03/01/the-generation-gap-in-american-politics/">United States</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-vote-jeune-existe-t-il-179871">youth voters in France</a> have historically supported progressive and left-leaning platforms. The Front National – which was established as an <a href="https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_POUV_157_0005--the-origins-of-the-national-front.htm">explicitly neo-fascist, anti-immigrant party</a>, and whose founder Jean-Marie Le Pen has been <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210901-french-far-right-party-founder-jean-marie-le-pen-faces-new-hate-trial">repeatedly convicted</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121105195546/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-93051559.html">by French courts</a> for inciting racial hatred – was especially far from youth politics.</p>
<p>Indeed, until recently, the French far right’s relation to the under-30 crowd could be summarized in the words of punk rock group Bérurier Noir, which <a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/bretagne/il-y-a-38-ans-berurier-noir-chantait-la-jeunesse-emmerde-le-front-national-entretien-avec-loran-beru-2531640.html">famously sang</a> during a 1989 concert that “la jeunesse emmerde le Front National” – “young people piss off the Front National.” </p>
<p>This lyric became a rallying cry during the 2002 elections, as youth voters turned out in overwhelming numbers – both to the ballot box and <a href="https://www.20minutes.fr/diaporama/diaporama-15314-images-20-ans-jeunesse-manifestait-contre-extreme-droite-france">to the streets in protest</a> – when the far right advanced to the runoffs for the first time in the Front National’s history. </p>
<h2>Rebranding the right</h2>
<p>The tide began to change when <a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2011/01/14/01002-20110114ARTFIG00673-marine-le-pen-elue-presidente-du-front-national.php">Marine Le Pen took control</a> of the Front National from her father in 2011. Over the last decade, she has undertaken a conscious process of “<a href="https://www.franceculture.fr/emissions/le-reportage-de-la-redaction/du-fn-au-rn-dix-ans-de-dediabolisation">de-demonizing</a>” the party in an effort to distance itself from its <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/actualites/2017/03/15/le-front-national-face-a-ses-vieux-demons-antisemites_1555982/">antisemitic past</a>. Instead, Le Pen wants to present herself as a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210703-france-s-far-right-marine-le-pen-under-fire-for-going-mainstream">mainstream candidate</a>.</p>
<p>While, as <a href="https://www.20minutes.fr/elections/presidentielle/2060491-20170502-presidentielle-front-national-vraiment-change">many point out</a>, many of the policies of Rassemblement National <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2022/article/2022/03/31/presidentielle-2022-derriere-la-normalisation-de-marine-le-pen-un-projet-qui-reste-d-extreme-droite_6119942_6059010.html">aren’t substantively different</a> from their far-right roots, the party has tried to appeal to young voters by reframing its stances on issues like <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/2022-presidential-election/article/2022/04/17/le-pen-challenges-macron-s-punitive-ecology-with-her-national-ecology_5980790_16.html">the environment</a> and <a href="https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/presidentielle-marine-le-pen-et-le-feminisme-un-engagement-de-facade_2169345.html">feminism</a>. Le Pen retreated from her <a href="https://www.linternaute.com/actualite/politique/2626647-marine-le-pen-climatosceptique-l-accusation-de-macron-est-elle-fondee/">previous climate skepticism</a> and embraced a program of so-called <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/04/15/marine-le-pen-oppose-son-ecologie-nationale-a-l-ecologie-punitive-d-emmanuel-macron_6122325_823448.html">nationalist ecology</a>, which advocates for energy independence and French-made products. She also positioned herself as a <a href="http://www.slate.fr/story/225591/marine-le-pen-defense-animaux-chats-rassemblement-national-electorat-populaire">pro-animal welfare candidate</a> by calling for stricter regulations on the meatpacking industry, and claimed to “<a href="https://www.nouvelobs.com/tribunes/20220422.OBS57476/marine-le-pen-feministe-defendre-les-femmes-parce-qu-on-est-une-femme-est-un-leurre.html#">defend women</a>” by campaigning against street harassment.</p>
<p>Critics note that her animal welfare proposals amounted to a <a href="https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/presidentielle-2022-cette-mesure-de-le-pen-qui-signifierait-l-interdiction-du-halal-et-du-casher-7900137659">ban on halal and kosher meat</a> and that her rhetoric on street harassment <a href="https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/marine-le-pen-condamne-le-harcelement-de-rue-produit-de-l-immigration-selon-elle-15-01-2018-7502490.php">placed the blame on immigrant men</a> who, according to her campaign videos, either did not know or did not respect “<a href="https://www.franceinter.fr/societe/violences-faites-aux-femmes-que-proposent-les-candidats-a-l-election-presentielle">French cultural codes</a>.”</p>
<h2>Appealing to youth</h2>
<p>Beyond reframing, though, the Rassemblement National also proposed a number of concrete fiscal policies that target youth voters. In her <a href="https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/presidentielle-voici-les-propositions-de-marine-le-pen-et-demmanuel-macron-pour-la-jeunesse-4105995">2022 presidential platform</a>, Le Pen promised to eliminate taxes for those under 30, offer financial assistance to student workers and increase housing for students.</p>
<p>Le Pen and the Rassemblement National haven’t convinced everyone. It remains a primarily <a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/politique/europe-derriere-lapparent-recentrage-de-marine-le-pen-un-programme-radical-menant-au-frexit-1400170">anti-immigrant, anti-European nationalist party</a> that often faces accusations of <a href="https://www.franceinter.fr/politique/laissez-les-musulmans-tranquilles-deplacement-chahute-pour-marine-le-pen-dans-le-vaucluse">Islamophobia</a>, <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2022/article/2022/04/08/marine-le-pen-se-defend-de-tout-racisme-dans-son-programme-et-denonce-les-propos-outranciers-d-emmanuel-macron_6121222_6059010.html">racism</a> and <a href="https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/190422/derriere-la-dediabolisation-de-marine-le-pen-le-veritable-danger-du-rn-pour-les-lgbti">homophobia</a>. </p>
<p>When Le Pen advanced to the runoffs after the first round of voting on April 10 – <a href="https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/lecart-entre-jean-luc-melenchon-et-marine-le-pen-se-resserre-fortement-4104913">barely edging out</a> far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon – huge numbers of students turned out in protest across France, declaring that they would vote “<a href="https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/societe/ni-le-pen-ni-macron-le-slogan-qui-divise-les-etudiants_2172021.html">neither Macron, nor Le Pen</a>.” Many young voters in 2022 abstained from voting altogether – an estimated <a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/presidentielle-le-taux-dabstention-chez-les-jeunes-restera-eleve-au-second-tour-1400817">30%</a> of those under 35 years old in the first round, climbing to a historic <a href="https://www.publicsenat.fr/article/politique/abstention-des-jeunes-les-politiques-ne-parlent-pas-des-sujets-qui-les-preoccupent">40% in the runoff</a>. </p>
<h2>Declining support of GOP</h2>
<p>In both <a href="https://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/pourquoi-les-jeunes-ne-votent-plus-11-04-2022-2471686_3121.php">France</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-so-few-young-americans-vote-132649">U.S.</a>, younger generations express feelings of disinterest in and neglect by mainstream political institutions.</p>
<p>Yet young people in the U.S. continue to show <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2021/06/28/global-right-wing-authoritarian-test/">comparatively low levels of support</a> for right-wing authoritarianism. In <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016">2016</a> and <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020">2020</a>, voters age 18-29 were 10 points lower in their support for Donald Trump compared to the overall population.</p>
<p>So why aren’t we seeing the French trend in the U.S.? </p>
<p>It’s important to note that the U.S. Republican Party and the French Rassemblement National are not completely analogous, due at least in part to the fact that the U.S. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/27/why-are-there-only-two-parties-in-american-politics/">is a two-party system</a>. The Republican Party is the only viable option available to right-wing voters. In France, the Rassemblement National is one of several far-right movements, and is wholly separate from the mainstream conservative Les Républicains party. </p>
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<p>Still, the GOP and the Rassemblement National are increasingly occupying the same political space. According to the University of Gothenburg’s V-Dem Institute, the Republican Party <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/static/website/img/refs/vparty_briefing.pdf">shifted dramatically</a> towards illiberal rhetoric between 2002 and 2018, putting it in proximity to European far-right parties. Similarly, the GOP and the Rassemblement National received similar scores on Harvard University’s 2019 <a href="https://www.globalpartysurvey.org/">Global Party Survey</a> in terms of opposition to ethnic minority rights and adherence to liberal democratic principles, norms and practices. </p>
<p>The GOP and the RN have also demonstrated a growing, <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/actualites/2019/09/28/la-convention-de-la-droite-de-marion-marechal-le-pen-vire-a-la-caricature-radicale_1754246/">mutual recognition</a> and <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/usa/presidentielle/donald-trump/une-delegation-du-rassemblement-national-aupres-de-l-equipe-trumpaux-etats-unis_4165547.html">exchange of ideas</a> over the last few years.</p>
<p>Indeed, over the last few weeks, far-right groups in France have even begun to echo U.S.-style “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/election-conspiracy-theories-macron-victory-le-pen">Stop the Steal</a>” rhetoric in response to Emmanuel Macron’s vote shares.</p>
<p>Yet is seems unlikely that far-right segments of the Republican Party can replicate the metamorphosis that allowed Rassemblement National to appeal to youth voters.</p>
<p>Party structures in the U.S. are significantly more decentralized than in France. While Le Pen was able to lead the charge in “softening” her image, it’s not clear who would play that role in an American context for Republicans. Trump remains a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/cracks-begin-show-republicans-split-over-trump-rnc-meeting-1676470">polarizing figure</a> within the party and <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-at-stake-for-trump-twitter-and-politics-if-the-tweeter-in-chief-returns-from-banishment-182011">seemingly shows no desire</a> to engage in such “de-demonizing.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An elderly woman wears a 'Keep America Great Again' hat and holds an American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460856/original/file-20220502-22-12c1hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An age-old problem for the GOP?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trump-supporter-holds-a-flag-and-wears-a-keep-america-great-news-photo/1229340481?adppopup=true">Aimee Dilger/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And the GOP also doesn’t seem to have the political desire to “soften” its image in issues that matter most to youth voters. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/fall-2021-harvard-youth-poll%20https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/fall-2021-harvard-youth-poll">2021 survey</a> by the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics found that young Americans list addressing climate change, health care, education, social justice and income inequality as their top priorities – several of which are <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/05/gop-red-wave-critical-race-theory-526523">difficult to reconcile</a> with the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/26/republicans-midterms-culture-war-lgbtq-abortion-book-bans">culture war</a>” that parts of the GOP have made a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/10/1091543359/15-states-dont-say-gay-anti-transgender-bills">core part of their mandates</a>. </p>
<p>By and large, major Republican officials remain <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2021/05/10/republicans-in-congress-are-out-of-step-with-the-american-public-on-climate/">publicly skeptical</a> that climate change exists, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/04/joe-biden-climate-crisis-republican-backlash">vote against</a> Democratic-led climate proposals as too expensive or unnecessary. </p>
<p>The Rassemblement National’s youth-oriented fiscal policies – which often involve direct financial assistance for students, in a distinct break from the party’s “<a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/politique/marine-le-pen-en-operation-seduction-aupres-des-jeunes-1311687">Reaganomics” under Jean-Marie Le Pen</a> in the 1980s – run counter to a GOP that opposes solutions to the <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3469647-republicans-take-aim-at-bidens-authority-on-student-loans/">student debt crisis</a>. </p>
<p>The GOP seems to be <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/11/republican-party-gains-temporary-young-voter-strategy-524086">keenly aware</a> of its <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/27/blame-game-erupts-over-trumps-decline-in-youth-vote-440811">declining support among youth voters</a>. Yet Republican efforts seem more geared toward tactics such as <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/10/22/partisan-gerrymandering-targets-college-campuses">diluting the vote of districts with college campuses, particularly historically Black colleges and universities</a>, and <a href="https://civilrights.org/edfund/resource/youth-vote/">voter ID laws</a> that would make it more difficult for young people to vote. In contrast, Le Pen <a href="https://www.sudouest.fr/france/1er-mai-marine-le-pen-cible-la-jeunesse-2339713.php">openly courted youth voters</a> and dedicated a large part of her <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3204171586469277">final rally</a> before the April 24 runoff to calling on young people to get out and vote. </p>
<p>Part of the GOP approach can likely be ascribed to the fact that young voters are becoming <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-census-data-shows-the-nation-is-diversifying-even-faster-than-predicted/">increasingly racially diverse</a> and that young adults of color are <a href="https://time.com/5910291/weve-seen-a-youthquake-how-youth-of-color-backed-joe-biden-in-battleground-states/">an especially strong base</a> for Democratic candidates. But GOP support is dropping among <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020%20">white youths</a>, too.</p>
<p>It took years for Le Pen’s “de-demonization” among youth voters to start paying dividends – and even then, it was insufficient to propel her to electoral victory. The U.S. will, in a few months, undergo its own elections with the 2022 midterms. It’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/10/democrats-youth-vote-2022-midterms-john-della-volpe-00024264">far from certain</a> that young people in the U.S. will continue to throw their support behind Democratic candidates. But who they cast their ballot for, and whether they turn out to vote at all, will show just how big the gap is between the Rassemblement National and the GOP in appealing to a younger electorate. </p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181937/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberly Tower receives funding from the French-American Fulbright Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camille Gélix receives funding from Sciences Po Paris (PhD contract). </span></em></p>While Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has engaged in a decade-long campaign to rehabilitate its image with youth voters, the GOP is moving in the opposite direction.Kimberly Tower, PhD Candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics, American University School of International ServiceCamille Gélix, PhD candidate, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1801082022-04-06T13:31:03Z2022-04-06T13:31:03ZWhy lowering the voting age in Canada is such a good idea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455955/original/file-20220403-26-z9vvbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=931%2C0%2C2438%2C3227&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are several moves afoot to lower the voting age from 18 to 16. It's long overdue.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Three initiatives aimed at lowering the voting age in Canadian federal elections are reigniting conversations about youth enfranchisement. </p>
<p>A group of young people is <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8418542/canada-minimum-voting-age-lawsuit/">suing the federal government</a>, claiming that disenfranchisement of those under 18 is unconstitutional.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired man smiles among other men with grey hair." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455956/original/file-20220403-111102-wb3pe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">NDP MP Taylor Bachrach in Ottawa shortly after he got elected in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>NDP MP Taylor Bachrach has introduced a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/voting-age-canada-taylor-bachrach-1.6284418">private members bill</a> to lower the voting age to 16. The first reading in the House of Commons was completed <a href="https://www.parl.ca/legisinfo/en/bill/44-1/c-210">late last year</a>. </p>
<p>A similar act (Bill S-201) to amend Canada’s minimum voting age from 18 to 16 is currently at <a href="https://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/en/bill/44-1/S-201">second reading in the Senate</a>. <a href="https://sencanada.ca/en/senators/mcphedran-marilou/interventions/569780/27#hID">Sen. Marilou McPhedran</a> introduced a similar bill in 2021 and it passed second reading. But the fall 2021 election put an end to that process.</p>
<p>This is the 11th attempt to lower Canada’s voting age since it was changed from <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=bkg&document=ec90785&lang=e">21 to 18 in 1970</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ubcm-16-vote-age-2019-1.5299066">Some municipal</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-voting-age-16-green-1.5995601">and provincial</a> jurisdictions in Canada have considered lowering their voting age. So have other countries, including the <a href="https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/voting-age-2/">United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10361146.2013.868402">Australia</a> and New Zealand. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lowering-new-zealands-voting-age-to-16-would-be-good-for-young-people-and-good-for-democracy-145008">Lowering New Zealand's voting age to 16 would be good for young people – and good for democracy</a>
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<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/view-large/282896085">Thirteen countries</a>, ranging from Brazil to Nicaragua, Ecuador, Austria, Estonia and Malta, already have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsab019">voting ages under 18</a>. The <a href="https://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/XRef/Xref-XML2HTML-en.asp?fileid=18015&lang=en">Council of Europe</a> has urged its member countries to follow suit.</p>
<p>In Canada, the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/5932635/federal-election-2019-jagmeet-singh-proposes-lowering-voting-age-to-16">federal NDP</a> and <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/vote-16">Green Party</a> publicly support a younger voting age. The federal Conservative, NDP and Liberal parties already allow members as young as 14 to vote in leadership contests.</p>
<p>Proponents of the bills <a href="https://www.interior-news.com/news/bachrach-has-faith-16-year-olds-will-take-voting-seriously/">in Parliament</a> and <a href="https://vote16.ca">the Senate</a>, and the applicants to the <a href="https://childrenfirstcanada.org/press-releases/young-canadians-file-court-challenge-to-lower-federal-voting-age-calling-it-unconstitutional/">Ontario Superior Court of Justice</a>, hope to build on this momentum. </p>
<p>There are four main arguments for lowering the voting age:</p>
<h2>1. Youth most affected by today’s pressing issues</h2>
<p>Many of the key issues of today — like climate change, environmental degradation, the COVID-19 pandemic and social and racial justice — have serious consequences for young people, now and in the future. </p>
<p>Many leading Canadian and international environmental advocates are under the age of 18. Autumn Peltier, for example, was named <a href="https://www.anishinabek.ca/2019/04/26/autumn-peltier-appointed-anishinabek-nation-chief-water-commissioner/">Chief Water Commissioner for the Aniishnabek Nation</a> at the age of 14 and addressed the United Nations General Assembly at <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/autumn-peltier-un-water-activist-united-nations-1.4584871">age 13</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canadian-indigenous-water-activist-autumn-peltier-addresses-un-on-clean-water-1.5301559">and 15</a>.</p>
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<p>Children and young people have disproportionately experienced <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/learning-loss-covid19-1.6214714">the education</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.9778/cmajo.20210042">health and</a> <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/october-2020/young-canadians-and-the-long-tail-of-the-covid-crisis/">economic consequences</a> of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/world-childrens-day-young-people-deserve-to-be-heard-during-covid-19-149904">World Children’s Day: Young people deserve to be heard during COVID-19</a>
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<p>Many young people under the age of 18 are actively involved in social justice movements, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2109860118">Black Lives Matter</a> and <a href="https://www.bcachievement.com/2020/09/29/every-child-matters-the-meaning-behind-orange-shirt-day/">Every Child Matters.</a></p>
<p>Under the UN’s <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/convention-rights-child">Convention on the Rights of the Child</a> — which is almost universally ratified — children have the right to participate in decisions that affect them. </p>
<p>Lowering the voting age is one way to provide a formal process for decision-making and accountability by elected representatives. In fact, <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/elections">the right to vote is a human right</a>, protected by domestic and international law.</p>
<h2>2. Could fuel political engagement</h2>
<p>Lowering the age to a time when young people are enrolled in high school <a href="https://doi.org/10.1163/9789460910258_003">civics classes</a> could increase <a href="https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/voting-at-16-in-austria-a-possible-model-for-the-eu/">formal political participation</a> and strengthen democracy. </p>
<p>Despite the political consciousness and engagement of children and young people, there is still <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/tud&document=youth&lang=e">widespread apathy and declining participation</a> among young adult voters.</p>
<p>Research across jurisdictions that have introduced under-18 voting indicates that the impact is “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsab019">often positive in terms of political engagement and civic attitudes</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Students toss their graduation caps into the air while posing for family photos." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455958/original/file-20220403-16-qro0v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455958/original/file-20220403-16-qro0v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455958/original/file-20220403-16-qro0v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455958/original/file-20220403-16-qro0v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455958/original/file-20220403-16-qro0v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455958/original/file-20220403-16-qro0v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455958/original/file-20220403-16-qro0v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Students toss their caps into the air while posing for family photos after a graduation ceremony at a Vancouver high school in June 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>3. Would align with other age minimums</h2>
<p>The current voting age does not align with the minimum age of many other activities that require maturity and judgment, such as driving, consensual sex and paid work. </p>
<p>Most tellingly, the age of criminal responsibility in Canada is 12 under the <a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/cj-jp/yj-jj/tools-outils/back-hist.html">Youth Criminal Justice Act</a>. </p>
<p>If children as young as 12 are considered mature enough to be held criminally responsible for their actions, why can’t 16-year-olds vote? </p>
<p>If children can work and pay taxes, why don’t they have a say in how their taxes are spent? </p>
<p>These contradictions highlight adult-centric norms and everyday age discrimination manifested in arbitrary, chronological age cut-offs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A teenaged boy on a skateboard holds bags of popcorn as he moves along a long row of cars on a highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455960/original/file-20220404-11-wxhz3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455960/original/file-20220404-11-wxhz3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455960/original/file-20220404-11-wxhz3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455960/original/file-20220404-11-wxhz3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455960/original/file-20220404-11-wxhz3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455960/original/file-20220404-11-wxhz3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455960/original/file-20220404-11-wxhz3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An entrepreneur who can’t vote: A teenaged boy uses a skateboard to move up and down selling popcorn to southern Alberta residents lining up to get COVID-19 vaccines in May 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
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<h2>4. Would eradicate ageist assumptions</h2>
<p>Ageist assumptions against those under 18 mirror <a href="https://humanrights.ca/story/the-chaotic-story-of-the-right-to-vote-in-canada">historically sexist and racist arguments</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-59074-9_12">disenfranchise women</a> and <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/APRC/vot_rights&document=p4&lang=e">Indigenous people</a>.</p>
<p>One such argument is that those under the age of 18 lack the cognitive, emotional and moral maturity to vote. However, <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1037%2Flhb0000315">psychological research</a> suggests that young people have adult-level cognitive capacity by age 16.</p>
<p>Others argue that parents will influence their children’s voting behaviour. But some studies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0267323115577306">indicate that peers</a>, rather than adults, have greater influence over political behaviour and socialization. Results from Student Vote Canada, while not representative, show different voting outcomes for the 2021 election <a href="https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/">among students</a> versus the <a href="https://www.elections.ca/enr/help/national_e.htm">official results</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A teenager with a mop of dark hair looks back as he walks past a high school with a friend. " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455959/original/file-20220403-15-3n1wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455959/original/file-20220403-15-3n1wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455959/original/file-20220403-15-3n1wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455959/original/file-20220403-15-3n1wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455959/original/file-20220403-15-3n1wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455959/original/file-20220403-15-3n1wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455959/original/file-20220403-15-3n1wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A teenager looks back as he walks beside a friend past a Toronto high school in May 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
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<p>Some might argue that people under the age of 18 <a href="https://irpp.org/fr/research-studies/political-knowledge-and-participation-among-young-canadians-and-americans/">lack sufficient knowledge about policies and democracy</a> to make informed decisions. </p>
<p>However, many Canadian adults also lack basic <a href="https://theconversation.com/ottawa-convoy-protest-points-to-a-failure-of-civic-education-in-canada-177271">civic literacy</a>. Adult voters are not necessarily more informed about policy issues than young people when <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/1/15515820/donald-trump-democracy-brexit-2016-election-europe">making political choices</a>. </p>
<p>Voting rights in Canada have changed over time to become more inclusive. Challenging age discrimination in Canada’s election system could be the next step in expanding and strengthening our democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Clark-Kazak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Voting rights in Canada have changed over time to become more inclusive. Challenging age discrimination in Canada’s election system could be the next step in expanding and strengthening our democracy.Christina Clark-Kazak, Associate Professor, Public and International Affairs, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1562702021-03-24T18:20:11Z2021-03-24T18:20:11ZCivics education isn’t boosting youth voting or volunteerism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390951/original/file-20210322-15-19548n7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C44%2C4985%2C3285&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">These students at the University of Pittsburgh urged their peers to vote in the 2020 presidential election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/university-of-pittsburgh-students-with-biden-harris-signs-news-photo/1229454204">Aaron Jackendoff/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After the insurrection, the impeachment, the trial and ongoing partisanship in 2021, many Americans are looking to civics education as a source of hope, according to George Washington University’s Center on Education Policy, which reports that “<a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED606967">Nearly all Americans (97%) agree that public schools should be teaching civics</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/education-k-12/reports/2018/02/21/446857/state-civics-education/">According to the Center for American Progress</a>, civics classes teach students about how the U.S. government works, history about how it was designed and information about how to participate, including voting. After those sorts of courses, it seems reasonable to expect that students should be voting more and engaging in community service.</p>
<p>But my research shows that states that require civics courses do not necessarily have better test scores, more youth voting or young people volunteering at higher rates than other states. And there may be a connection to QAnon support as well.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3y3BVcEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">political science professor</a> who also teaches government, history, geography and economics classes to college students who major in education. So I strongly believe that civics education is a good thing.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, though, my research has found that civics education isn’t making the grade. In states that require students to take a civics course, young voters have slightly lower average voting rates – 29.9% – than states without such a requirement – 31.9%.</p>
<p>I analyzed data from the latest study by the <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/education-k-12/reports/2019/12/14/478750/strengthening-democracy-modern-civics-education/">Center for American Progress</a>, which provides information on which states require a civics test, and the voting rates for 18-to-24-year-olds, volunteer rates for 16-to-24-year-olds and average scores on the <a href="https://ap.collegeboard.org/">College Board’s Advanced Placement</a> civics and U.S. government test. </p>
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<h2>Civics class requirements</h2>
<p>Washington, D.C., and 39 states – including California, Iowa and South Carolina – have a civics class requirement. These same places also have lower percentages of youth volunteer rates – 22.7% on average – than states without such a civics course requirement. In states that do not have a civics class requirement, including New Jersey, Kentucky and Nebraska, the average youth volunteer rate is 23.5%. </p>
<p>States which require a civics course also have slightly lower scores on the Advanced Placement test about U.S. government and politics – 2.75 out of 5 – than states that do not make their students take a civics course – 2.84. A score of 4 or 5 is often accepted for college credit in political science, though some schools may accept a 3 on the AP test, which covers subjects such as the foundations of American democracy, civil liberties and civil rights, as well as American political ideologies and beliefs, according to <a href="https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/pdf/ap-us-government-and-politics-course-and-exam-description.pdf?course=ap-united-states-government-and-politics">The College Board</a>.</p>
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<h2>Passing a civics exam</h2>
<p>Nineteen states require passage of a civics exam for graduation, including Kentucky, which does not have a specific course requirement. But that doesn’t seem to make a difference in boosting youth civic engagement or knowledge. States with the requirement have roughly similar youth voting rates – 30% – as states that do not require passage of a civics exam – 30.6%. </p>
<p>States demanding a civics exam be passed before receiving a high school diploma also have average test scores on AP exams related to civics or government – 2.80 – similar to those states without such a requirement – 2.75.</p>
<p>There is one bright spot, though: States with a civics exam have higher volunteer rates among younger people – 22.2% on average – than those states that do not – 17.5%.</p>
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<h2>Community service requirements</h2>
<p>Nearly half of all states, plus the District of Columbia, require some sort of community service requirement or provide high school credit for students who volunteer, according to the <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/education-k-12/reports/2019/12/14/478750/strengthening-democracy-modern-civics-education/">Center for American Progress</a>. </p>
<p>But I was dismayed to find that states without such a requirement had higher rates of volunteerism among younger people – an average of 24.4% – than among those states with a community service mandate – 21.3%.</p>
<p>And states requiring high school students to do community service have lower youth voting rates – 29.3% – than states where schools did not require volunteering – 31.4%.</p>
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<h2>Countering QAnon?</h2>
<p>Failure to provide an adequate civics education doesn’t just mean lower numbers of young people voting, volunteering and scoring a little lower on AP test scores. It could open the door for QAnon, a wide-ranging conspiracy theory that claims former President Donald Trump is helping the late John F. Kennedy Jr. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/53498434">battle a secret cabal of cannibalistic pedophiles</a>.</p>
<p>States with lower levels of youth volunteering, youth voting and youth civics test scores are also more likely to have QAnon sympathizers active in politics, or politicians who oppose criticism of QAnon.</p>
<p>To determine this, I looked at states which had a <a href="https://www.mediamatters.org/qanon-conspiracy-theory/here-are-qanon-supporters-running-congress-2020">congressional candidate who openly espoused some or all of the QAnon philosophy</a>. I also examined which states had a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/519357-house-approves-measure-condemning-qanon-but-18-republicans-vote-against-it">representative who voted against a congressional resolution denouncing QAnon</a>, </p>
<p>The 24 states with QAnon-supporting politicians had lower average youth voting rates – 38.5% – than states without them – 42.4%. They also had lower average youth volunteering rates – 21.8% – than states without major politicians supporting QAnon – 24%.</p>
<p>There was no significant difference in AP test scores between the two groups of states. </p>
<p>Our country’s civics education may not help solve the nation’s current political crises. But <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/education-k-12/reports/2018/02/21/446857/state-civics-education/">reform efforts touted by the Center for American Progress</a> are under way in several states to help replace memorizing facts and figures with active learning designed to engage students in real-life problems in and out of the classroom. </p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156270/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John A. Tures does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Civics education is not boosting youth voting, volunteering or even scores on academic tests about government – and may be related to QAnon support.John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481822020-10-15T22:29:29Z2020-10-15T22:29:29ZNZ election 2020: how might record advance voting numbers influence the final outcome?<p>With under 48 hours until polls close in the 2020 election, 1,742,960 New Zealanders have already made an <a href="https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics/">advance vote</a>. This represents 67% of the total number of votes cast in the 2017 general election and is the most advance votes ever cast in a New Zealand general election. </p>
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<p>Is it possible to read the tea leaves in these numbers and predict what’s going to happen on Saturday? </p>
<p>Earlier this century and facing plummeting voter turnout, the Electoral Commission surveyed non-voters as to why they had not cast a vote. Respondents said they simply forgot or were otherwise busy on election day, away or overseas. </p>
<p>To mitigate these factors, the commission has <a href="https://vote.nz/">made it easier</a> for people to vote when and where it suits them. It has opened polling booths two weeks ahead of the election day in a range of locations, including school and church halls, mosques, marae, universities, clubrooms, libraries and pop-ups in retail spaces. </p>
<p>As a strategy to increase the total vote, this appears to have worked. Turnout <a href="http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-social-indicators/Home/Trust%20and%20participation%20in%20government/voter-turnout.aspx">has risen</a> from a record low of 74.2% of enrolled voters in 2011 to 77.9% in 2014 and 79.01% in 2017. </p>
<p>Advance voting is not the only factor in these statistics. Voter advice applications such as Massey University’s <a href="https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/10903"></a><a href="https://onthefence.co.nz">On The Fence</a> have helped first-time voters feel more confident about the voting process. This has led to higher youth voter turnout, contributing to the rise in overall turnout. </p>
<h2>Who benefits from advance voting?</h2>
<p>Our major political parties have cottoned on to the advantages they can gain by promoting advance voting. Core major party voters tend to decide their voting choices well before the official campaign period. It’s therefore in major party interests to lock those votes in before random campaign events shake voters’ confidence in their choices at the last minute. </p>
<p>Parties only have to look back at the 2002 election to see the impact of this. When Labour entered the campaign it was hovering around 53% support. Following a random <a href="https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/3-news-corngate-interview-with-helen-clark-2002">media storm</a> over genetically engineered corn, which blew over as quickly as it arrived, Labour’s vote dropped over ten points to 41.26% on election day. </p>
<p>It was therefore no surprise to see our major party leaders, Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-election-2020-pm-jacinda-ardern-one-of-first-to-vote-as-early-voting-begins/M64HO3OY4V27UEB4B256X2XUCE/">casting their votes</a> on the first weekend polls were open, projecting confidence and role-modelling the acceptability of advance voting. Green co-leader James Shaw and ACT leader David Seymour also voted that weekend, hopeful of locking in the opinion poll gains their parties had made in the middle of the campaign period.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-5-experts-on-the-final-debate-and-the-campaigns-winners-and-losers-ahead-of-the-big-decision-147982">NZ election 2020: 5 experts on the final debate and the campaign's winners and losers ahead of the big decision</a>
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<p>New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has said he will wait until tomorrow to cast his vote. On the grounds of “clanger after clanger after clanger being dropped every day now”, he has <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nz-first-leader-winston-peters-labels-push-for-early-voting-a-fear-campaign/H2UQUV2PBWQZBNKOJVCZPME6R4/">warned</a> “only a fool tests the water with both feet”. He has encouraged voters to wait until election day so they know all the facts before casting their votes. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1316776953337180161"}"></div></p>
<p>This isn’t just Peters playing amateur philosopher. Currently languishing in the polls, it has never been more important for New Zealand First to discourage advance voting. Peters will know that many of his supporters in previous elections have been protest voters who opted for New Zealand First as a matter of last resort because they liked neither of the major parties’ offerings or leaders. </p>
<p>Unfortunately for the party, some of the clangers this week are own goals. News about the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/428454/exclusive-the-secret-case-of-the-nz-first-foundation">financial scandal</a> concerning the New Zealand First Foundation is more likely to hurt than benefit the party’s election fortunes this close to election day. </p>
<h2>The impact of late strategic voting</h2>
<p>Plenty of voters are still to cast their votes today and tomorrow. History shows many will end up voting the same way they would have two months ago, irrespective of what has transpired during the campaign. </p>
<p>But a good proportion will also have been waiting for last night’s opinion poll to decide how to strategically cast their vote to influence the composition of the next parliament. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-why-gender-stereotypes-still-affect-perceptions-of-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-as-leaders-147837">NZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders</a>
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<p>If it looks like their preferred party is “safe”, they may give their votes to a minor party to help them form part of a final coalition. If their preferred party is looking unsafe, they may give their votes to a minor party to send a message of disappointment for poor performance. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1316605018980540418"}"></div></p>
<p>Since the MMP system began, the minor party vote has been highest in the elections where the pre-election poll gap between the major parties has been widest. With last night’s gap between Labour and National remaining a <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-strong-lead-over-national-greens-climb">whopping 15 points</a>, it looks like the Greens and ACT will be the beneficiaries of late strategic voting, not either of the major parties. </p>
<p>This won’t be the result Ardern and Collins were hoping for when they cast their advance votes two weeks ago, but democracy in New Zealand will ultimately be stronger for it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Robinson is one of the leaders of the Design+Democracy Project at Massey University which has produced On The Fence.</span></em></p>With more votes cast before election day than on it, late strategic voting could make all the difference.Claire Robinson, Professor of Communication Design, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460722020-09-23T12:32:13Z2020-09-23T12:32:13ZWant the youth vote? Some college students are still up for grabs in November<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359425/original/file-20200922-18-1y4u76j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3500%2C2326&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Encouraging students at the University of Colorado, Boulder, to vote in the midterm elections, Nov. 6, 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jeff-paley-of-boulder-colorado-encourages-students-on-the-news-photo/1058417618?adppopup=true">Jason Connolly/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>College students are a <a href="https://www.voanews.com/student-union/plenty-signs-surging-youth-vote-will-play-major-role-2020-us-election">rapidly growing</a> and increasingly coveted voting bloc. </p>
<p>Twice as many college students <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2019/09/24/college-students-take-to-the-voting-booth/#f633575253e0">voted in the 2018 midterms</a> as did in 2014, challenging the stereotype that young people are politically disengaged. According to the Knight Foundation, 71% of college students <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/71percent-of-college-students-plan-to-voteand-they-prefer-biden-over-trump.html">are expected to vote</a> this November. </p>
<p>Both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are courting them, in different ways. Trump and his education secretary, Betsy DeVos, are trying to win the support of students with new <a href="https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/us-secretary-education-betsy-devos-delivers-promise-protect-free-inquiry-and-religious-liberty">religious freedom</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2019/03/21/trump-expected-sign-executive-order-free-speech/">freedom of speech</a> assurances. Meanwhile, Biden is promising to enact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/politics/biden-backs-free-college.html">tuition-free</a> college and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/21/what-joe-biden-would-do-for-student-loan-borrowers.html">forgive US$10,000 in student loans</a> for all borrowers if elected. </p>
<p>There are over <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far/">14 million</a> college students in the United States, which has about <a href="http://statchatva.org/2019/11/11/elections-2020-projecting-eligible-voters-by-state/">235 million eligible voters</a>. </p>
<p>Nearly all students were born after 1996, meaning they belong to Generation Z. This generation of expected voters is 45% nonwhite, according to the Pew Research Center. And <a href="https://firstgen.naspa.org/research-and-policy/national-data-fact-sheets-on-first-generation-college-students/national-data-fact-sheets">over half of Gen Z college students</a> are the first in their families to attend college. As with any large and diverse group, some students are more likely to vote than others. </p>
<p>So which young people are actually up for grabs?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Students wait to vote at a polling station on the campus of the University of California, Irvine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Young people are more politically engaged than they get credit for.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/students-wait-in-line-to-cast-their-ballot-at-a-polling-news-photo/1058415096?adppopup=true">Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Who votes, who doesn’t</h2>
<p>Our study, the Interfaith Diversity Experiences and Attitudes Longitudinal Survey, or <a href="http://www.ifyc.org/ideals">IDEALS</a>, helps to answer that question. </p>
<p>We conducted this four-year study of 5,762 students enrolled in one of 120 colleges and universities between fall 2015 and spring 2019. Our goal was to examine the religious and political behavior of students over time. We asked participants 70 questions – among them whether, in the 2016 election, they: did not vote; voted for the Republican candidate; voted for the Democratic candidate; voted for a third-party candidate; wrote in the name of a candidate; were not eligible to vote; or preferred not to respond. </p>
<p>Respondents were also asked their race/ethnicity, gender, family educational history, college major, religion, sexual orientation and other identifying features.</p>
<p>In terms of racial groups, we found that students identifying as Asian American/Asian/Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian were less electorally engaged, with 26.2% reporting that they did not vote in 2016. Black/African American, white and Latino students were significantly more likely to have voted in the last election. And every one of the Native American students eligible to vote in 2016 did so. </p>
<p><iframe id="s4AuZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/s4AuZ/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>First-generation students – regardless of race – were also unlikely to vote. Twenty-nine percent of them sat out the 2016 election, compared with 20% of students with at least one college-educated parent.</p>
<p>These nonvoting trends held as other important characteristics changed. First-generation students at public institutions were just as likely not to vote as first-generation students at private institutions. Similarly, Asian American business students were just as likely not to vote as Asian American students studying arts or humanities.</p>
<h2>Swing students</h2>
<p>These findings make historic sense. Both Asian Americans and lower-income Americans – a racially mixed group that many first-generation students belong to – are groups traditionally less likely to vote. </p>
<p>National politicians rarely make specific outreach efforts to Asian Americans, who make up <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219">5.9% of the U.S. population</a>. That leaves some with the “pervasive feeling of not belonging in American politics,” <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/weekly/why-asian-americans-dont-vote/">wrote Caitlin Kim for the research group New America</a> in 2017. The country’s 11 million eligible Asian American voters are an <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/asian-american-vote-2020-election-voting-rights-philadelphia-20200812.html">“untapped” power</a>,“ says Neil Goh of the Woori Center, an Asian American advocacy organization. </p>
<p>Poorer Americans, on the other hand, are historically <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/12/poor-voters-turnout-untapped-power-2020-us-election">less likely to vote</a>, in part due to a slew of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/01/why-are-the-poor-and-minorities-less-likely-to-vote/282896/">practical hurdles</a>. They are less likely to have ID, often experience longer voting lines and have more difficulty finding their polling place. Analysts say just a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/10/759512938/u-s-census-bureau-reports-poverty-rate-down-but-millions-still-poor#:%7E:text=Despite%20the%20decline%20in%20poverty,two%20adults%20and%20two%20children.">small increase</a> in turnout among the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/10/759512938/u-s-census-bureau-reports-poverty-rate-down-but-millions-still-poor#:%7E:text=Despite%20the%20decline%20in%20poverty,two%20adults%20and%20two%20children.">38 million Americans who live in poverty</a> could shift the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Both Trump and Biden are trying to leverage their <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-jr-says-joe-biden-only-addressed-rioting-in-america-when-cnn-pointed-out-it-was-affecting-polls/vp-BB18C1X4">blue-collar appeal</a>, which may capture the interests of first-generation voters. But new research on Asian American voters shows their party preference, once largely Republican, <a href="https://theconversation.com/asian-americans-political-preferences-have-flipped-from-red-to-blue-145577">has firmly shifted toward the Democrats</a>. And Biden’s vice presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, has been highlighting her <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/kamala-harris-reminds-indian-americans-of-her-south-asian-descent-2280149">Asian roots</a> in an effort to appeal to Asian American voters.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>With Election Day just weeks away, many voters on both sides of the aisle are already strongly committed to one candidate and unlikely to change their minds, so campaigns are focused on winning over and turning out traditionally nonvoting blocs. </p>
<p>Asian American and first-generation students may be among the few votes that are still up for grabs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew J. Mayhew receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Fetzer Institute, the U.S. Department of Education, the Merrifield Family Foundation, and the Marion Ewing Kauffman Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christa Winkler, Kevin Singer, and Musbah Shaheen do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers examined the voting behavior of 5,762 students at 120 colleges and universities. Two groups stood out as an untapped electoral resource – if the candidates can turn out Gen Z.Matthew J. Mayhew, The William Ray and Marie Adamson Flesher Professor of Higher Education, The Ohio State UniversityChrista Winkler, Assistant Professor, Department of Educational Leadership, Mississippi State UniversityKevin Singer, PhD student and research assistant with the Interfaith Diversity Experiences and Attitudes Longitudinal Study, North Carolina State UniversityMusbah Shaheen, PhD student in Higher Education and Student Affairs, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1352802020-04-15T12:13:24Z2020-04-15T12:13:24ZHow to reach young voters when they’re stuck at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326993/original/file-20200409-72664-iwoqu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young Minnesota voters cast their ballots on March 3, before the coronavirus outbreak really set in for the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-somalia-americans-cast-their-ballot-during-the-news-photo/1204948098">Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Colleges across the U.S. have sent students home. High schools – and their elementary and middle-school counterparts – have moved operations online. </p>
<p>As scholars of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=catzoVsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">young people’s political involvement</a> and activity, we find that this presents a new set of challenges not only for campaigns, but also for democracy.</p>
<p>This election season will be unlike any other. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign-primary-calendar-coronavirus.html">More than a dozen states postponed</a> their Democratic Party primaries. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-starts-to-scramble-presidential-campaign-2020-03-11">Campaigns canceled all in-person events</a>. </p>
<p>Young voters are important to the continuity of democratic society in the U.S., because voting is a habit: <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/becoming-a-habitual-voter-inertia-resources-and-growth-in-young-adulthood/9EA1F561496D714346491B25B0D52239">Starting early leads to continued voting</a>.</p>
<p>By our analysis, more than 15 million youth are newly eligible to vote in their first presidential election in November – and these first-time voters make up almost one-third of all 18- to 29-year-olds eligible to vote in the fall. They’re not in campaigns’ databases either, especially if they are not yet registered to vote, so the political machines’ get-out-the-vote systems won’t reach them.</p>
<p>At the <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/">Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement</a>, part of Tufts University’s <a href="https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/">Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life</a>, we’ve spent nearly two decades researching how best to grow, inform and mobilize young potential voters. Our findings reveal several key actions that parties, campaigns, advocacy organizations, educators and journalists can take to help ensure that all young people are prepared and motivated to vote in the 2020 election and beyond:</p>
<h2>1. Look beyond the college campus</h2>
<p>Universities are valuable sites for voter education and engagement, but campaigns’ and other political organizations’ usual focus on campus-based voter outreach has historically left out most young people. At any given time, <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/school-enrollment/2017-cps.html">45% – less than half</a> – of youth ages 18 to 22 are enrolled in college.</p>
<p>With so many students away from their college campuses now, campaigns and organizers will have to diversify their strategies to reach more young people, in or out of the virtual classroom. In the long run, that shift to be <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/political-outreach-youth-was-effective-2018-midterms">more inclusive of noncollege youth</a> may strengthen democracy as a whole.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A high school student learns at home during the coronavirus pandemic, which has closed schools across the country.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Illinois/55a94206fb914033bf26811767268db0/121/0">AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh</a></span>
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<h2>2. Discuss elections and voting in at-home learning</h2>
<p>Public schools have a responsibility to prepare their students to participate in democracy. In more than two dozen states, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/state-statutes-support-growing-voters">policies or statutes explicitly mandate or recommend</a> that schools facilitate voter registration for their students. That responsibility does not end because students are not physically in school. Millions of high schoolers are now participating in online or at-home learning, which could include content about elections and voting.</p>
<p>Many high school seniors are already old enough to vote – or will be by November. <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/preregistration-for-young-voters.aspx">More than 20 states</a> allow people to register to vote before their 18th birthdays, if they will be 18 on or before Election Day. Our research on “<a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/growing-voters-engaging-youth-they-reach-voting-age-strengthen-democracy">growing voters</a>” offers ideas for election administrators and nonpartisan community groups to reach diverse groups of young people through high schools, even if students aren’t in classrooms.</p>
<h2>3. Focus on online voter registration</h2>
<p>Registering to vote sooner rather than later is important. It makes voters visible to campaigns that rely on lists of registered voters for outreach. Research shows that contact by a political campaign or group supporting a candidate <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/political-outreach-youth-was-effective-2018-midterms">is linked to a higher likelihood to vote</a>.</p>
<p>Online voter registration is <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/facilitative-election-laws">a good way to support an increase in voter participation</a> because it can make it easier for young people and other new voters to register. It’s even more vital now that so much must be done remotely.</p>
<p>Currently <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Online_voter_registration">38 states and Washington, D.C.</a>, have online registration, but its availability alone isn’t enough. That’s especially true for young people from low-income backgrounds and marginalized communities. In one CIRCLE study of low-income youth, <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/engaging-broader-youth-electorate-10-recommendations-increasing-voter-engagement">we found that only 17% of young people across several states</a> with online registration successfully used it. Many respondents shared that they ran into problems trying to do so or were unaware it was an option. </p>
<p>Local voter-registration groups, as well as state and local election administrators, can invest in widely promoting online voter registration and develop strategies to help young people with the process.</p>
<h2>4. Remember there are many ways to reach youth</h2>
<p>Our polling from the 2018 midterms <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-engagement-2018-election">highlighted how youth learned about the election</a>: Many did so on social media but also from friends, family and classmates. </p>
<p>As young people interact less in person in the coming weeks and months, campaigns and organizations will need to invest in strategies that take into account who young people are already talking to online – especially those who can serve as trusted sources of information.</p>
<h2>5. Emphasize deeper, sustained digital contact</h2>
<p>Public health recommendations to engage in social distancing and avoid in-person contact will make <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/so-much-slacktivism-youth-translate-online-engagement-offline-political-action">digital organizing and outreach</a> an even more critical part of the 2020 election cycle. </p>
<p>But the goal should be to make digital contact feel more like personal contact. One-off text messages and social media campaigns can be important, but it’s much more effective to engage youth by building relationships, listening to their priorities, sustaining contact over time and creating opportunities for them to use their skills. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teenage environmental activist Xiuhtezcatl Martinez speaks at a political rally in California in February 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/environmental-activist-and-hip-hop-artist-xiuhtezcatl-news-photo/1200231879">Ronen Tivony/Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>6. Support young leaders</h2>
<p>Building new connections with young potential voters is always difficult; restrictions on events and in-person canvassing will make it even harder. But youth leaders and organizers, many of whom <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/gun-violence-prevention-movement-fueled-youth-engagement-2018-election">have spent recent years growing movements related to issues like gun violence</a> and climate change, may already have the experience, skills, networks and trust to effectively approach youth in their communities. Those leaders may be interested in joining electoral outreach efforts.</p>
<h2>7. Strengthen media connections</h2>
<p>During both public health emergencies and election seasons, the media plays a critical role in keeping people informed. Many young people may now <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-03-25/tv-news-audiences-are-surging-thanks-to-coronavirus-pandemic">rely even more on their local media or news broadcast for information</a>. This presents <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/impact-local-news-youth-political-engagement">an opportunity for media organizations</a> to think of youth as a critical audience. They could build trust by partnering with young people in order to include their voices through collaborative digital storytelling, projects that share the information a diversity of youth need to participate, or highlighting what diverse youth are already doing to boost engagement. Accurate and actionable election information is especially critical for people new to the voting process.</p>
<h2>8. Pay attention to the issues</h2>
<p>Young people <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/texans-under-age-40-concerned-about-health-care-believe-effecting-change">care deeply about issues</a> like health care, education, employment, economic justice and racial justice. They are motivated to participate in elections when they see candidates and movements addressing what matters to them and to their communities. Some may be experiencing firsthand, for the first time, how policy decisions play out in ways that drastically shape their lives and the lives of their loved ones. </p>
<p>The coronavirus outbreak and the resulting socioeconomic effects <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-exposing-our-racial-divides/609526/">directly connect to many longstanding political issues</a> that matter to youth. For example, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/27/young-workers-likely-to-be-hard-hit-as-covid-19-strikes-a-blow-to-restaurants-and-other-service-sector-jobs/">young people are at higher risk of reduced employment</a> during the pandemic. This presents an opportunity to underscore the importance of youth engagement in the democratic process as a way for them to explicitly influence crucial issues.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135280/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abby Kiesa is the Director of Impact at CIRCLE, a national research center on youth civic education and engagement at Tufts University's Tisch College of Civic Life. Abby has worked on research projects funded by private foundations including: the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, Youth Engagement Fund, the Democracy Fund, the Spencer Foundation, CloseUp Foundation, Bonner Foundation, Ford Foundation, Corporation for National and Community Service, The Pew Charitable Trusts, S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, and the Omidyar Network. She is affiliated with Rock the Vote's Democracy Class (Advisory Council), DoSomething.org (Civic Engagement Advisory Board), Generation Citizen/Vote16USA (Advisory Board). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg is the Director of CIRCLE. CIRCLE receives funding from private foundations such as the Ford Foundation, Democracy Fund, MacArthur Foundation, McCormick Foundation, and the Youth Engagement Fund to conduct nonpartisan research about youth and Civic Education and Engagement. CIRCLE also receives indirect funding from the National Endowment for Humanities and the Hewlett Foundation through its nonpartisan partner organizations that receive funding directly from these entities.She is affiliated with the Democracy Works and Generation Citizen as a director of national boards and serve as advisory member for the American Bard Association Standing Commission on Public Education, Project
Citizen Z at Education Week, and Project on Information Literacy. She does not receive compensation from these roles. </span></em></p>Young voters are important to the continuity of democracy because voting at a young age leads to continued voting throughout life. This year more than most, they’ll have a hard time getting started.Abby Kiesa, Director of Impact at CIRCLE, Tufts UniversityKei Kawashima-Ginsberg, Director, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement in the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1239852019-09-29T19:54:51Z2019-09-29T19:54:51Z‘We will never forgive you’: youth is not wasted on the young who fight for climate justice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294007/original/file-20190925-51429-1t4ihhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Swedish activist Greta Thunberg joins other children from across the world to present an official human rights complaint on the climate crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Nagle/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week’s United Nations climate summit may go down in history - but not for the reasons intended. It was not the tipping point for action on global warming that organisers hoped it would be. It will instead probably be remembered for the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMrtLsQbaok">powerful address</a> by Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg, who castigated world leaders on behalf of the generation set to bear the brunt of inaction.</p>
<p>Young people are not sitting back and waiting for older generations to act on the climate crisis. Days before the summit, school students led a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2019/sep/20/climate-strike-global-change-protest-sydney-melbourne-london-new-york-nyc-school-student-protest-greta-thunberg-rally-live-news-latest-updates">climate strike</a> attended by millions around the world. And at the first ever <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/youth-summit.shtml">UN youth climate summit</a>, more than 500 young people from 60 countries, including myself, explored how to meet the commitments of <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">the Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>This group of activists, innovators, entrepreneurs, and change-makers aged between 18 and 30 showcased potential solutions and put global political leaders on notice: they must fight off the climate crisis at the scale and pace required.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294293/original/file-20190926-51421-mqthi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294293/original/file-20190926-51421-mqthi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294293/original/file-20190926-51421-mqthi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294293/original/file-20190926-51421-mqthi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294293/original/file-20190926-51421-mqthi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294293/original/file-20190926-51421-mqthi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294293/original/file-20190926-51421-mqthi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A young boy takes part in the global climate strike on September 20 at Parliament Square in London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Hall/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>Youth voices matter</h2>
<p>Youth aged 15 to 24 years represent <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/youth/wp-content/uploads/sites/21/2018/12/WorldYouthReport-2030Agenda.pdf">16% of the world population</a> and will reach 1.3 billion people by 2030. Obviously the action (or otherwise) of today’s decision makers on climate change and other environmental threats will affect generations to come - a principle known as <a href="https://www.unicef-irc.org/article/920-climate-change-and-intergenerational-justice.html">intergenerational equity.</a></p>
<p>Millions of young people around the world are <a href="https://www.worldvision.com.au/global-issues/work-we-do/climate-change/climate-change-the-effects-on-children">already affected by climate change</a>. <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1046962">Speaking at the youth summit</a>, Fijian climate action advocate Komal Kumar said her nation was at the frontline of a crisis and worldwide, young people were “living in constant fear and climate anxiety … fearing the future”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/highly-touted-un-climate-summit-failed-to-deliver-and-scott-morrison-failed-to-show-up-123979">Highly touted UN climate summit failed to deliver - and Scott Morrison failed to show up</a>
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<p>“Stop hindering the work [towards a sustainable future] for short term profits. Engage young people in the design of adaptation plans,” she said. “We will hold you accountable. And if you do not remember, we will mobilise to vote you out.”</p>
<p>UN Secretary-General António Guterres attended the event and his deputy Amina Mohammed took part in a “town hall” with the attendees, alongside senior representatives from government and civil society. </p>
<h2>Young people are not sitting idly by</h2>
<p>Technological solutions <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/assets/pdf/Youth_Summit_Agenda.pdf">presented by youth summit participants</a> included 3D printing using plastic waste, data storage in plant DNA, a weather app for farmers and an accountability platform for sustainable fashion.</p>
<p>Participants learnt how to amplify their voices using Instagram and how to create engaging videos with their mobile phones. An art workshop taught youth how creativity can help solve the climate emergency, and a networking session showed ways that youth leaders to stay connected and support each other.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294294/original/file-20190926-51414-1w1x4i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294294/original/file-20190926-51414-1w1x4i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294294/original/file-20190926-51414-1w1x4i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294294/original/file-20190926-51414-1w1x4i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294294/original/file-20190926-51414-1w1x4i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294294/original/file-20190926-51414-1w1x4i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294294/original/file-20190926-51414-1w1x4i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Greta Thunberg, second from right, speaks as United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and young climate activists listen at the start of the United Nations Youth Climate Summit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Lane/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Elsewhere, you <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Democratic%20Governance/Youth/FF-Youth-Engagement-Climate%20Change_Nov2015.pdf">don’t have to look far</a> to see examples of young climate warriors, including in the developing world.</p>
<p>Programs <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Democratic%20Governance/Youth/FF-Youth-Engagement-Climate%20Change_Nov2015.pdf">funded by the UN development program</a> include in Kazakhstan where youth are helping implement an energy efficiency project in schools, and in Namibia where young people are being trained as tour guides in national parks and nature reserves. In Nepal, young people cultivate wild Himalayan cherry trees as a natural solution to land degradation. </p>
<h2>Harness the power of nature</h2>
<p>Kenyan environmental activist Wanjuhi Njoroge told the youth summit of her nation’s progress in restoring the country’s forest cover.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/engaging-nature-based-solutions-coalition-climate-action-summit">Nature-based solutions</a> to the climate crisis - such as conserving and restoring forests, grasslands and wetlands - were a key focus at the summit. Efforts to meet the Paris climate goals often focus on cutting fossil fuel use. But <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/44/11645">nature has a huge ability</a> to store carbon as plants grow. Avoiding deforestation keeps this carbon from entering the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Thunberg and British writer George Monbiot released a film ahead on the New York summit calling on world leaders protect, restore and fund natural climate solutions.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-Q0xUXo2zEY?wmode=transparent&start=6" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A film by Greta Thunberg and George Monbiot calling for more nature-based climate change solutions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To date, such solutions have received little by way of investments and funding support. For example in 2015, agriculture, forestry and land-use <a href="https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2015/">received just 3%</a> of global climate change finance.</p>
<p>Appearing at the youth summit, the global <a href="https://www.youth4nature.org">Youth4Nature</a> network told how it mobilises young people to advocate for nature-based solutions. Their strategy has included collecting and sharing youth stories in natural resources management in more than 35 countries. </p>
<h2>Youth ‘will be watching’ their leaders</h2>
<p>When it comes to climate change, young people have specific demands that must be acknowledged - and offer solutions that other generations cannot.</p>
<p>But globally there is a lack of youth representation in politics, and by extension, they are largely absent from climate change decision-making. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-eco-anxiety-climate-change-affects-our-mental-health-too-123002">The rise of 'eco-anxiety': climate change affects our mental health, too</a>
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<p>Some youth summit participants reportedly <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/a357p5/teen-climate-activists-wanted-real-action-the-un-gave-them-imovie-lessons-and-a-games-of-thrones-actor">questioned whether it achieved its aims</a> - including the value of some workshops, why celebrities were involved and whether anything tangible was produced.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294295/original/file-20190926-51425-1323841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294295/original/file-20190926-51425-1323841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294295/original/file-20190926-51425-1323841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294295/original/file-20190926-51425-1323841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294295/original/file-20190926-51425-1323841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294295/original/file-20190926-51425-1323841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294295/original/file-20190926-51425-1323841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A young girl attends the the global climate strike in Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Certainly, there was little evidence that world leaders at the climate summit were listening to the demands of young people. This was reflected in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/highly-touted-un-climate-summit-failed-to-deliver-and-scott-morrison-failed-to-show-up-123979">failure of the world’s biggest-polluting countries</a> to offer credible emissions reduction commitments.</p>
<p>But the youth summit went some way to granting young people space and visibility in the formal decision-making process. </p>
<p>Pressure from young people for climate action will not subside. Thunberg said it best when she warned world leaders that youth “will be watching you”.</p>
<p>“The eyes of all future generations are upon you,” she said. “If you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danilo Urzedo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From 3D printing using plastic waste to growing cherry trees in the Himalayas, young people are not sitting idle while the world burns.Danilo Urzedo, PhD candidate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1184042019-06-11T13:38:45Z2019-06-11T13:38:45ZStudy shows young South Africans have no faith in democracy and politicians<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278534/original/file-20190607-52758-ow8gch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many young South Africans see no point in voting. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the eve of South Africa’s sixth democratic elections on 8 May, thousands of young people took to Twitter to state reasons for why they had no intention to cast their votes. They used the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/iwanttovotebut?lang=en">hashtag #IWantToVoteBut</a>.</p>
<p>The trending topic at the time of the elections provides some insight into why young people opted out of casting their vote. At the time, pollsters and commentators were already touting the power of the youth (people under 29 made up <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/Voters-Roll/Registration-statistics/">21% of eligible voters</a>) as well as the threat of non-participation. </p>
<p>The Electoral Commission of South Africa has revealed that about <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/content/About-Us/News/Over-700-000-new-voters-added-to-the-voters--roll-ahead-of-elections/">nine million </a> people eligible to vote were not registered to vote. Of these about six million were young people. Alarmingly, less than 20% of eligible first-time voters (those who turned 18 since the last national election) registered to vote. The election was ultimately held with the <a href="https://www.news24.com/elections/news/2019-vs-2014-what-the-numbers-tell-us-about-the-general-elections-20190512">lowest voter turnout</a> since 1994.</p>
<p>Looking at the trends over the last few years, there’s been a systematic decrease in youth participation in elections. Does this reflect youth apathy or lack of confidence in the system of democracy to meet their needs?</p>
<p>The Centre for Social Development in Africa, at the University of Johannesburg, did a <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/csda/Documents/Voter%20Report%20A4%20Mar%202019%20Web.pdf">study</a> – “The 2019 Elections: Socio-economic performance and voter preferences”. It shows that young South Africans place socio-economic well-being above democratic rights. Simply put, the vast majority of young people believe that it is more important for the country to cater for their needs than to vote. This is a worrying trend indicating a loss of faith in democracy.</p>
<p>The findings were drawn from a survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2018. The study asked to what extent are government performance in the delivery of socio-economic rights, perceptions of corruption and issues of governance likely to influence voter preferences in the 2019 national general elections? It consisted of 3431 respondents (representative of more than 38 million potential voters), the majority of whom are youth between the ages of 18 and 34 years. </p>
<h2>Livelihood trumps the vote</h2>
<p>The study found that young people were more distrustful of political parties and governmental organisations than older people. While all potential voters put more value on socio-economic well-being than democratic rights, this was more pronounced among young people.</p>
<p>Specifically, 58% of youth in South Africa view meeting their basic needs (such as finding jobs, income, housing) as more important than voting, and having access to courts, freedom of speech and expression. Only 27% (less than three out of ten) of the young respondents believed democratic rights were more important. The remaining 15% said they didn’t know which was more important. Respondents also reported a lack of faith in democracy to deliver socio-economic transformation that can meet their needs.</p>
<p>Placing socioeconomic rights above democratic rights is understandable given the multiple struggles that young people face. 25 years since the end of apartheid, the country is still arguably the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview">most unequal</a> in the world. The most recent <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02111stQuarter2019.pdf">workforce figures</a> show a 55.2% joblessness rate among the country’s youth –- almost twice the general (already shocking) national unemployment rate of 27.6%.</p>
<p>Young people are also grappling with the <a href="http://www.ci.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/367/Child_Gauge/South_African_Child_Gauge_2015/Child_Gauge_2015-Schooling.pdf">well-documented failings of the education system</a> which has left many school-leavers unprepared for (or unable to access) tertiary education or become entrepreneurs.</p>
<p>As our <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/csda/Documents/Youth%20Unemployment%20exec%20summary%20FINAL%20interactive.pdf">research</a> on youth unemployment shows, there are multiple barriers keeping many of the country’s young people locked out of labour market opportunities. These include a mismatch between their education and the skills needed in the economy. The particularly low level of skills among young people constrains their ability to enter the labour market. Another problem is that the costs of work seeking are particularly high for young people.</p>
<h2>Lack of faith in government</h2>
<p>A qualitative study the Centre for Social Development in Africa conducted among young people aged on average 17.5 years old in 2015, called <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/csda/Documents/Youth%20Transition%20in%20SA%20communities_new%20colour_print.pdf">“Youth transitions in South African communities”</a> shows that young South Africans do care about politics and their role as citizens, but were not convinced that the government would or could address their concerns.</p>
<p>Across the focus groups we observed young people who were surprisingly well-informed about current affairs. They held passionately expressed opinions about various political issues – from xenophobia to the government’s failure to provide basic services such as electricity, water and sanitation. </p>
<p>They also had real concerns about the problems facing their communities; including crime and unemployment. Perhaps it was this awareness that informed their views on formal political processes. The <a href="https://www.uj.ac.za/faculties/humanities/csda/Documents/Youth%20Transition%20in%20SA%20communities_new%20colour_print.pdf">report</a> also found that “most of the participants indicated an unwillingness to vote”. Furthermore, the report said</p>
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<p>A common thread in all the focus groups was the notion that young people felt voting would not bring about meaningful change to their lives.</p>
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<p>All of the participants said they generally had no trust in political structures and processes – like voting, demonstrations, and political party membership. They reflected a deep cynicism about formal political processes, indicating distrust of leaders. </p>
<p>They were well aware of the failures of the then President Jacob Zuma’s ruinous administration. But, more broadly, they felt that political leaders wanted their vote but then did not deliver on promises. They believed that political leaders were selfish and had no interest in the well-being of their communities. Many of the participants reported feeling alienated from all of South Africa’s political leaders.</p>
<h2>Need for urgency</h2>
<p>Tackling youth unemployment and social exclusion requires bold strategies and decisive action. Evidence-based strategies are needed that tackle the structural barriers to youth unemployment and the persistent educational and socioeconomic disadvantage that they face. These should include quality and relevant education that will prepare them for the changing world of work; smoother pathways to vocational and technical education; and access to employment services that link them with labour market opportunities. </p>
<p>These strategies are crucial to counteract their persistent marginalisation and restore their confidence in democracy. Only in this way will South Africa be a politically stable, just and peaceful society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leila Patel receives funding from Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation for the South African Chair in Welfare and Social Development. She also received funding for this research from the Faculty of Humanities Research Committee and the University Research Committee, University of Johannesburg</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Graham receives funding from the National Research Foundation, the University of Johannesburg's University Research Committee and the Government Technical Advisory Centre. She has previously been funded by the Ford Foundation and the British Academy. </span></em></p>After recent elections, South Africa are grappling with what the reasons are for the declining trend in youth participation in the 2019 elections.Leila Patel, Professor of Social Development Studies, University of JohannesburgLauren Graham, Associate professor at the Centre for Social Development in Africa, University of Johannesburg, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1175792019-06-03T21:13:39Z2019-06-03T21:13:39ZHow youth influenced the EU election – and could do the same in Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276621/original/file-20190527-193540-17php9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5649%2C3760&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A demonstrator holds a sign outside the Portuguese parliament in Lisbon during a climate strike of school students as part of the Fridays for Future movements on Friday, May 24, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Armando Franca)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With major votes occurring within the span of five months this year, the European Union and Canadian federal elections are critical in deciding our planet’s future.</p>
<p>The results of the EU election — in which each European country elects an allotted number of representatives to the EU parliament — have already resulted in big changes, largely due to youth getting involved in politics.</p>
<p>Young people around the world are demonstrating a thorough understanding of the larger economic and environmental threats that are endangering not only individual freedom, but the very survival of our own species and more than <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canada-biodiversity-1.5125108">a million others</a>.</p>
<p>Around the world, youth protest movements like #FridaysForFuture have been growing steadily. Student protesters recently turned out in <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/05/24/student-protesters-hope-bay-st-march-will-wake-up-government-and-corporations-to-climate-crisis.html">120 countries and 1,700 cities</a> to demand action on climate change just days before the EU elections on May 26. The next global student strike has already been announced for Sept. 20 and is expected to draw even bigger numbers.</p>
<p>It’s clear that young voters are bringing critical issues to the fore.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276617/original/file-20190527-193544-upar1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276617/original/file-20190527-193544-upar1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276617/original/file-20190527-193544-upar1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276617/original/file-20190527-193544-upar1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276617/original/file-20190527-193544-upar1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276617/original/file-20190527-193544-upar1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276617/original/file-20190527-193544-upar1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Young people protest ahead of the European elections during a climate strike of school students as part of the Fridays for Future movement in front of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Boris Roessler/dpa via AP)</span></span>
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<p>As Europeans headed to the polls to elect a new European Parliament, the notion of a European “Green New Deal” was a big campaign issue. The German Green Party made history by coming in second place with <a href="https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/info/presse/mitteilungen/europawahl-2019/35_19_vorlaeufiges-ergebnis.html">20.5 per cent thanks in part to the increased voter turnout in Germany (61.4 per cent)</a>.</p>
<p>The shift was due mostly to many first-time voters casting their ballots for the Greens, who won <a href="https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2019-05/europawahlergebnis-klimapolitik-fridays-for-future-protestwahl-gruene">the highest support in the 18-to-24 cohort — 34 per cent — and 27 per cent in the 25-to-35 age group.</a>.</p>
<h2>European Green New Deal</h2>
<p>There was a renewed brawl pitting democratic eco-socialists and liberals against conservatives and far-right parties, as Europeans witnessed most strikingly in the <a href="https://www.thenewfederalist.eu/the-maastricht-debate-insight-into-candidates-for-european-commission">first debate</a> of the lead candidates of the pan-European parties.</p>
<p>The debate focused on “digital Europe,” “sustainable Europe” and the future of Europe. </p>
<p>The prospect of a European Green New Deal — popular among young voters — has been increasingly paired with renewed discussions about democratizing the European Union not just politically, but also economically. </p>
<p>Yanis Varoufakis’s transnational party <a href="https://europeanspring.net/">European Spring</a> included a Green New Deal in its platform, with the following pledges: <a href="https://diem25.org/manifesto-long/">“To dismantle the habitual domination of corporate power over the will of citizens; to re-politicize the rules that govern our single market and common currency.”</a> </p>
<p>The party only marginally missed the threshold for securing seats in Germany and Greece, <a href="https://diem25.org/green-new-deal-gathers-more-than-1-4-million-votes-across-europe/">but more than 1.4 millions Europeans</a> voted for a Green New Deal. In Spain, the Socialist Party (PSOE) won <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-green-new-deal-is-going-global-115961">on a Green New Deal platform</a>.</p>
<p>As World Economic Forum writer <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/this-is-what-a-green-new-deal-for-europe-could-look-like/">Katie Whiting explained, a European Green New Deal would</a> invest “at least five per cent of Europe’s GDP in emissions-free transportation infrastructure, renewable energies and innovative technologies, while creating jobs and transitioning Europe to zero-emissions — all without raising taxes.” </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-green-new-deal-is-going-global-115961">The Green New Deal is going global</a>
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<p>The European Greens, with <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/eu-affairs/20190523STO52402/elections-2019-highest-turnout-in-20-years">69 projected MEPs</a> in the European Parliament, will certainly need to respond to calls from the Left Bloc (38 seats) and the Socialists and Democrats (153 seats) to work together on making Europe environmentally green and socially just.</p>
<p>They’ll have to do so while dealing with MEPs from pan-European parties like Volt Europa who want to <a href="https://www.volteuropa.org/vision">democratize the European Union</a> as far-right parties like <a href="https://theconversation.com/far-right-groe-but-heres-what-they-all-have-in-common-101919">Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)</a> embrace increasingly nationalist and isolationist views.</p>
<p>The EU environmental agenda is also being shaped by particular national New Green debates. For example, in Germany, there is talk of reappropriating apartment units and car manufacturers to alleviate inequality and establish a <a href="http://www.taz.de/Debatte-Kevin-Kuehnert-zu-Enteignung/!5590059/">more sustainable Europe.</a> </p>
<h2>Nationalize BMW?</h2>
<p>Soon after discussions about nationalizing real estate properties emerged in the state of Berlin, Kevin Kühnert, the head of the 80,000-member-strong youth movement of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), was recently in the news for <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/02/german-politician-calls-bmw-put-collective-ownership/">public remarks</a> calling for the nationalization of corporations like BMW as well. </p>
<p>BMW is in the spotlight due to allegations it “breached EU antitrust rules from 2006 to 2014,” according to the <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-2008_en.htm">European Commission</a>. It’s being investigated for allegedly using illegal defeat devices to cheat regulatory emissions tests.</p>
<p>It’s not just young people making the case for abolishing private ownership of some entities. These daring remarks by young people, sometimes considered taboo, have inspired older generations too. As Germany celebrates the 70th anniversary of the Federal Republic and its German Basic Law, even Baby Boomers are reminding the public about the law’s Article 15 that allows the <a href="https://www.vorwaerts.de/artikel/enteignungen-steht-grundgesetz">nationalization of private property</a>. </p>
<p>Demands for action on climate change are growing louder every day. British parliament recently declared a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/01/declare-formal-climate-emergency-before-its-too-late-corbyn-warns">climate emergency</a> due in part to ongoing protests organized by the Extinction Rebellion movement, which has also been supported by #FridaysForFuture student activist <a href="https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg">Greta Thunberg</a>.</p>
<h2>Growing movement?</h2>
<p>The strong representation of Democratic Socialists federally in Germany, including young socialists up to the age of 35, is beginning to take hold across the Atlantic, where the Democratic Socialists of America, whose membership stands at 60,000, have also amassed more than 200,000 followers on <a href="https://twitter.com/DemSocialists?ref_src=twsrc%5Egogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Twitter</a>.</p>
<p>While Canada seems to be lagging behind when compared to the European youth activism, voter turnout for those aged 18-24 <a href="https://bdp.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/2016104E#a6">increased by 18 percentage points from the 2011 federal election to 57.1 per cent in 2015</a></p>
<p>And although provincial elections in Alberta and Prince Edward Island resulted in Progressive Conservative governments, the Green Party of P.E.I. are the first Greens in Canada to become the official opposition. </p>
<p>The progress is happening as many young Europeans and Canadians look up to young leaders like Germany’s Kühnert and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the United States as they advocate Green New Deals. It’s time for young people in Canada to get more involved politically if they want to have a shot at saving the planet. For now, #FridaysForFuture may be a good way to start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tobias Wilczek receives funding for his doctoral research from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).</span></em></p>It’s clear that young voters are bringing critical issues to the fore as they did in the recent EU elections. Will they do so in Canada too?Tobias Wilczek, University Instructor in German Studies, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1135632019-05-06T05:59:25Z2019-05-06T05:59:25ZIndia election 2019: millions of Indian youth are underemployed and going to the polls<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264565/original/file-20190319-28471-1ymzat4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4679%2C2927&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indian general elections begin April 11.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-putting-ballot-box-during-elections-92687854">vepar5/shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Here’s an astonishingly large number. Around 900 million Indians are heading to the polls to decide if they want to reelect the current government of Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641">India Tomorrow</a> is a seven-part podcast series by The Anthill (produced by The Conversation UK), exploring some of the major issues facing India – identity politics, the rise of Hindu nationalism, Kashmir, the role of caste and gender in shaping Indian society, and how women and young people experience these phenomena.</p>
<p>Part one, <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-fake-news-and-the-battle-for-information-113579">an episode on India’s information wars and how fake news fuels violence</a>, launched on April 9. You can sign up to The Anthill newsletter to stay up to date and send questions via podcast@theconversation.com or via Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthillPod">@AnthillPod</a>. The producers will be putting your questions to academics.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-should-engage-with-the-unemployment-crisis-affecting-indian-youth-113034">Why Australia should engage with the unemployment crisis affecting Indian youth</a>
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<p>Today on Trust Me, I’m An Expert, we’re hearing from an academic featured on <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641">India Tomorrow</a>. Craig Jeffrey is the director and CEO of the Australia India Institute and Professor of Development Geography at the University of Melbourne. </p>
<p>He explains what issues are front of mind for India’s millions of first-time voters delivering their verdict on the performance of the BJP government, led by Narendra Modi.</p>
<p>“Two things are really crucial. One is jobs. Young people across India and particularly in parts of India where the economy’s been less successful at creating jobs - so some of the northern states, for example, are going to be really concerned with the capacity of the government to provide better employment opportunities,” Professor Jeffrey told The Conversation’s editorial intern Bageshri Savyasachi.</p>
<p>“The second issue, I think, that they’ll be very concerned about is education. So they’ll be looking to see which political parties and politicians are promising to improve higher education […] Because for a lot of young people who aren’t part of the elite in India, there is a mismatch, often, between the educational opportunities they obtain in school or university and then the employment markets and the demands of key private sector firms.”</p>
<p>“A third area that’s perhaps less obvious is the issue of health care and public health. And my own observations, as an anthropologist and human geographer working in mainly Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the past 25 years on social change, is that young people are often demanding access to health services that are poorly provisioned in provincial India, particularly in relation to issues like sexual health, mental health, reproductive health and that’s an area where I think young people are looking to government for more action.”</p>
<p>Join us as Professor Jeffrey explains what implications this enormous election will have for the world’s second most populous nation, and for the rest of the globe as well. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-a-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-episode-guide-114654">India Tomorrow: a podcast series from The Anthill – episode guide</a>
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<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="https://pca.st/VTv7">here</a> to listen to Trust Me, I’m An Expert on Pocket Casts).</p>
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<h2>Transcript</h2>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Those numbers are astonishing, aren’t they? And it’s very difficult, I think, for pundits to predict what precisely they’ll do in terms of the elections. What’s slightly easier to say, though, I think, is what’s in the minds of those voters. And I think two things are really crucial, one is jobs. So young people across India and particularly in parts of India where the economy’s been less successful at creating jobs - so some of the northern states, for example - are going to be really concerned with the capacity of the government to provide better employment opportunities. The second issue, I think, that they’ll be very concerned about is education. So they’ll be looking to see which political parties and politicians are promising to improve higher education, tertiary education more generally, the skills environment and school education. Because for a lot of young people who aren’t part of the elite in India, there is a mismatch, often, between the educational opportunities they obtain in school or university and then the employment market and the demands of key private sector firms. </p>
<p>So I think jobs and education are going to be at the top of young people’s minds as they go into the polling booths. What are parties and politicians promising in those areas? </p>
<p>A third area that’s perhaps less obvious is the issue of health care and public health. And my own observations, as an anthropologist and human geographer working in mainly Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the past 25 years on social change, is that young people are often demanding access to health services that are poorly provisioned in provincial India particularly in relation to issues like sexual health, mental health, reproductive health and that’s an area where I think young people are looking to government for more action. And I think that will also be in young people’s minds in the lead up to the elections. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-part-1-podcast-transcript-fake-news-and-the-battle-for-information-115077">India Tomorrow part 1 podcast transcript: Fake news and the battle for information</a>
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<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> What jobs are available to young people and do they want to do those jobs?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think one of the stories of Indian economic growth since 1990 is its failure to create a large number of what might be regarded as white collar or middle class jobs for the increasing numbers of young people who are getting high school matriculation certificates or degrees in India. Now, India’s not especially unusual in that regard. Particularly since the global financial crisis in the late 2000s, economies around the world have often found it difficult to create secure employment opportunities for people. Of course, automation, mechanisation is changing the nature of work throughout the world. So this isn’t specific to India but India is an almost very condensed or intense example of the failure of economic growth to create lots of good quality jobs, that long predates 2014 and the coming to power of the BJP. It’s a structural feature of the Indian economy since 1990 and especially since the mid-2000s period. </p>
<p>So to get to your question of what jobs actually exist, in many cases what we’re seeing in India is people having to realign their expectations of what work they’re going to do in that five to 10 year period after they graduate from high school or university. This is not new. Ronald Dore wrote in his book The Diploma Disease in 1970 that India was the country of the BA bus conductor. So that sense of having to downplay your expectations in light of circumstances is quite old in India. But now, I would argue, that a lot of people with bachelors degrees in India would be very keen to have a job on state roadways as a bus conductor, so intense and cut-throat has the employment market become. So you’re seeing people with masters degrees, with PhDs having to do very small scale entrepreneurial business work, you’re seeing them especially having to go back into agriculture – not as large-scale agricultural innovators making large amounts of money and employing other people but rather working on quite small plots of land in an environment where they didn’t imagine that they would go back into farming. So one of the alarming statistics, I think, is that while in most of the period between 2000 and 2010 the number of young people in agriculture was declining, as you would expect in a country that’s undergoing a structural transformation from agriculture into manufacturing and services, in the 2010s and particularly since 2014 there has been an increase in young people in agriculture. Now that is quite worrying for India and reflects the point that jobs in the modern economy are not becoming available quickly enough, young people are not finding the infrastructural and institutional environment conducive to moving into successful medium-scale entrepreneurship where they employ other people and find an outlet for their talents. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> How crucial has mobilising young people been to the electoral successes of the ruling party, the BJP?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> That’s an easy question to answer because of the demographic structure of India and the figures for voting in 2014 in particular show that of course the BJP has been very successful at mobilising people generally in India to vote for them and that includes young people. It’s done so through making a series of important statements about its approach to social and economic change. And it has done so also through tapping into, I think, a sense of national identity that’s important to young people. So the BJP has been pretty successful. Not just the BJP but also various organisations connected to the party at the grassroots level. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> Is young people’s support for Modi on the wane? A lot of young people supported him when he was first running for prime minister but now a lot of young people are feeling disappointed. What do you think?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> I should do that classic academic thing of saying that I’m not an expert on the contemporary views of young people in India. Where I’ve done most of my research has been in particular pockets of India, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and the bulk of that research was done in the period between 1995 and 2010. Since 2010, my work has been mainly in a village in quite a remote part of Uttarakhand, in Chamoli district, and I’ve written quite a lot about the social and political attitudes of young people in that village. Now, those are quite particular to one part of India. Like you and like lots of people, I read the newspapers, I talk to friends in different parts of India, I try to pick up on the streets a sense of the mood. But in that regard, I’m an armchair or amateur interpreter of young people’s political views at the moment. </p>
<p>With those caveats in mind, my sense is that young people may not support Modi as much as they did five years ago but that doesn’t mean that they won’t vote for him. So one needs to maybe distinguish between support and how people will actually behave in the ballot booth. I think lots of people that I speak to recognise that given the high pitch to which Modi raised people’s aspirations in 2014 there was always going to be a sense of disappointment, that skilling hundreds of millions of people quickly was going to be a very tough ask. And that the vision of New India, while attractive in certain respects, is not borne out in social reality for those outside of the elite and particularly in provincial parts of India, in small town and rural India. So people see on the social and economic side a kind of mismatch between promise and actuality. And I think that’s undermined a certain enthusiasm for the ruling BJP government. I’m really not in a position to be able to adjudicate on the extent to which people have sort of fallen out of love with a particular vision of the nation as primarily Hindu or driven by a Hindu civilisational push. That’s, I think, more difficult to ascertain. It’s tricky. The question, I suppose, is: is 2019 to be like 2004, where there was a bit of a surprise that actually the Indian population, including the young population, did move away from the BJP? And it was partly because they didn’t feel that they were sharing in the social gains associated with economic growth. And it was partly, as you just observed, that some of the aspects of the sort of rhetoric of Hindu nationalism were not anymore particularly attractive. So it is possible that the same kind of cocktail will still exist in 2019, of sort of a sense of social and economic exclusion and a sense of being a little bit tired of the same message coming out from the government. But it’s very very difficult to tell. As I said, one has to distinguish between support and enthusiasm on the one hand and the actual decision to vote on the other. Because one thing you see again and again in elections in India is people putting their votes in for politicians or parties that they don’t actually very much like but they feel like they ought to. Ultimately, it’s the least bad choice that they want to make, which is of course it’s not distinctly Indian, it’s an aspect of how people vote across the world. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/india-tomorrow-podcast-series-from-the-anthill-trailer-114641">India Tomorrow podcast series from The Anthill – trailer</a>
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<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> We’ll just have to wait and watch. What is the state of youth unemployment in India? My impression is that for young people, it’s hard to get a job if you don’t have a masters or a bachelor’s degree. And even then you may not get a job in your chosen field. </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Oh, that’s absolutely right. The recent NSSO figures show that youth unemployment in India is something around 16 or 17%. Now those figures are contested but my view is that they are fairly robust. And, of course, beyond that problem of outright unemployment, there’s a very large problem of underemployment where people are working in part-time insecure work that doesn’t reflect their skills, ambitions and credentials. So both outright unemployment and underemployment are becoming increasing problems in India. In 2010, I wrote a book called Timepass which drew attention to this problem based on fieldwork work in Western Uttar Pradesh. I talked about the emergence of a generation of young people who described themselves as people with nothing to do. Who were doing nothing but also in some sense saw themselves as being nothing. A very intense form of social suffering associated with a prolonged period of unemployment or underemployment. </p>
<p>When I talk to young people in the same area now they say that actually that book is more relevant in 2019 than it was in 2010. Someone told me when I visited India two weeks ago “I felt like it had been written yesterday” and this reflects the way this problem of unemployment and underemployment to young people has intensified over the past nine years rather than dissipated. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> In her recent book, Dreamers: how young Indians are changing the world, the prominent Indian journalist Snigdha Poonam writes, “the world’s future depends on young Indians meeting their aspirations but it’s a pipe dream at this point”. How big of a problem is this disconnect between young Indians’ aspirations and their reality?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think it’s a huge problem and I think that the book Dreamers is very successful in setting that out. It’s worth again going back to the point about demographics. One in eight people in the world is an Indian under the age of 30. It’s worth repeating that: one in eight people in the world is an Indian young person, someone under the age of 30. Now, that’s an extraordinary statistic and it gives a sense of the importance of that demographic for the future of Asia and of the world. Now unlike the same generation 25 years ago, that set of young people are very well aware of events in other parts of the world which are streamed to them via their mobile phones or on the internet. They are increasingly in secondary school, including young women, and in school they’re learning to obviously dream big. And the government is also encouraging those young people to see themselves as part of a new India that’s modern, in which people are based often in urban areas doing what historically has been described as sort of middle class work, service work. And now where you’ve got that situation of both demographic growth and the rapid sort of revolution of rising aspirations, you need an outlet for young people so that they feel as they move into their 20s and 30s that they’re achieving the goals that they desire. And that’s not happening. And the question then is, how much of a problem is that? Well, obviously for the young people concerned it’s a big problem for their families. Young people are not passive in that situation, they actively and creatively seek ways to make do. That may be entering into fallback work in agriculture. It may be finding jobs that perhaps they weren’t aspiring to originally but which provide a means for establishing a family and getting by, in areas like sales and marketing. But there is also a lot of just disappointment, I think, and a sense of stuckedness and limbo that, again, I wrote about in detail in my book Timepass. What’s surprising, perhaps, is that that sense of social suffering hasn’t led to more unrest in India and I think there are several reasons for that. I think partly because India is a democracy people have an outlet for frustration through the political system, through voting, through demonstrating on the streets. I think a second reason why there hasn’t been more political mobilisation is that people often perceive this as a personal failure rather than a failure of government or of society or as a structural failure, as social scientists would put it. They see it as “Well, I didn’t try hard enough” or “I wasn’t successful enough in that examination”. So it’s quite a lot of this failure I think often is personalised rather than seen as a reflection of the structural features of the Indian economy and the wider institutional environment in which people may be trying to start businesses. There’s a whole history of commentators on India talking about the country as being poised to sort of fall into unrest. I’m not going to do that. I think India, it holds together and as I said people are, young people are actively finding ways to make do. But I do think it’s a major social issue at the moment, the lack of capacity for young people to realise their aspirations and it should be and will remain an absolutely critical issue for government in India. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> How has national politics played out in Indian universities under Modi? </p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, the information that leaks out on this issue tends to come from a small number of the very well-known universities in India. So universities like Jawaharlal Nehru University, Hyderabad University, Delhi University and that there has been, over the past few years as you’ll be well aware, a series of controversies over the government’s treatment of student protesters in those universities and of the ideological, the role of government in shaping how universities operate ideologically through, for example, the appointment of particular vice-chancellors with particular views on politics that then shape those institutions. Now, that’s a very important debate and it’s one that people can follow through a whole series of articles in magazines and newspapers in India. What interests me more is what’s happening outside of those well known central universities. What is happening actually in universities like the one that I worked in quite a bit 15 years ago. Chaudhary Charan Singh University which is the sixth largest university in the world if one excludes universities that provide distance education. And is actually, according to some sources, the second largest university in India after Indira Gandhi National Open University, which of course is largely a distance university, distance education university. So what’s happening in those big state universities that are affiliating other colleges. And that’s an area which desperately requires consideration. I think it would repay close social research. You’re seeing the emergence of different types of student politics to that which existed 15 years ago and some of those forms of student politics are linked to a Hindu nationalist agenda. Some are not. There’s a great deal of foment in those sort of more provincial universities that operates under the radar on which commentators and social scientists know very little about but which is really important in terms of shaping the environment in which the vast majority of students in India study, which is in colleges, not actually in universities. It’s in colleges affiliated to universities like Chaudhary Charan Singh University. I’d be really interested in hearing from anyone who’s listening to this podcast about their views or experiences of the curricular, of student action in India’s colleges where most people study. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> Do you think there is a growing shift towards illiberalism among India’s youth?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think that’s a really interesting question. First, one has to think about, well, what is liberalism? And if we define that relatively narrowly in terms of a commitment to formal equality and individual freedoms then I think there’s evidence both ways. There’s evidence of young people contesting those visions of formal equality and individual freedom, for example through their views on areas like sexuality. So there was a recent Centre for the Study of Developing Societies survey that showed that the majority of young Indians didn’t approve of homosexuality. So there’s some evidence there of a certain kind of “illiberalism”. There’s evidence of young people’s involvement in societies or organisations that are policing people’s right to eat certain foods, again which would suggest the rise of a certain form of illiberalism. But there’s also of course a great deal of evidence the other way, that young people are very active in nongovernmental organisations that are seeking to protect people’s formal equality, protect people’s freedoms. The number of youth NGOs in India is growing very, very quickly. There’s also, I think, a very interesting debate about the relationship between the individual and liberalism in India. So an argument that’s been made by several people is that actually liberalism in India is organised around a sense of group rights rather than around individual rights. So it’s perfectly possible to be part of a caste organisation or a religious organisation that’s about equality and freedom but nevertheless is articulating those notions of equality and freedom through reference to caste and religion. So that would be an argument that I think lots of Hindu nationalists would make, is that even though Hindus are the majority and even though that they’re making an argument in Hindu terms, it’s an argument about tolerance and about liberalism rather than about violence or exclusion or limiting people’s freedoms. So it’s a very complicated question. There’s evidence both ways. There’s also a tangled set of debates about whether you could have a kind of liberalism based on a sense of group rights and whether so-called Western visions of liberalism can really be applied to a place like India, where notions of religion and caste and family are so strong. That might be a more detailed answer than you wanted but it’s one that really interests, this is a question that really interests me. </p>
<p><strong>Bageshri Savyasachi:</strong> What do young people think now in 2019 that their parents or grandparents may not have thought at the same age?</p>
<p><strong>Craig Jeffrey:</strong> Well, I think one of the effects of more young people studying in secondary school is that they’ve often absorbed notions of citizenship and good government that are communicated in school textbooks. So in one of the villages where I work, I was sitting working with a young person who was doing an English lesson recently and one of the English exercises was to write a letter to the local district magistrate in English complaining about the state of the drains in their neighbourhood. And this was obviously an attempt not only to learn English but to inculcate a particular vision of the citizen and of the state. And I think the effect of having large numbers of young people in school, being exposed to these narratives is actually that many more people have accepted and appreciate that kind of vision of rights and citizenship than in the 1990s when I started doing fieldwork in north India. So you see that’s reflected, for example, in young people’s support for anti-corruption movements. You see it in terms of young people’s questioning of forms of malpractice that exist in certain bureaucracies in India. Another point I’d really like to stress is the revolution that’s been happening in India with reference to women’s and especially young women’s rights and capacities. And that’s, I think, really a major success story in the last 20 years in India or 30 years, is that women and young women have achieved a much greater degree of autonomy and voice at all levels of society and in cities as well as in villages. Now, that comes, of course with all sorts of caveats about the continued problems of gender violence, of disparities in terms of pay and access to schooling and social goods. Nevertheless, I think that is a really important point to stress about the achievements of India in the period since 2000.</p>
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<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p>Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from <a href="https://www.elefanttraks.com/">Elefant Traks</a></p>
<h2>Image:</h2>
<p>Shutterstock</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The world's largest democracy will see its biggest young voter turnout since gaining independence 72 years ago, with millions delivering their verdict on Narendra Modi's BJP government.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorBageshri Savyasachi, Editorial InternLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1124862019-04-09T22:14:02Z2019-04-09T22:14:02ZHere’s how we can get more people to vote in elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267189/original/file-20190402-177187-2raeva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadians are still forced to travel to polling stations and line up to vote. Online voting would save time and money.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal-budget-2019-everything-you-need-to-know">The year’s federal budget</a> included a slew of boutique policy promises suggesting the government is targeting specific groups of voters gearing up for the October election.</p>
<p>Likewise, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has been capitalizing on the SNC-Lavalin drama and the release of the federal carbon tax. <a href="http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2019/andrew-scheers-climate-opportunity/">One recent analysis suggests that if Scheer wants to sway voters, climate is the way to do it</a>.</p>
<p>But regardless of party strategy, a more pressing question is: Will people come out and vote?</p>
<p>In the 2015 federal election, 68 percent of Canadians cast a ballot, meaning about one third of Canadians did not vote. This was an increase in turnout from the previous five elections where electoral participation <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?dir=turn&document=index&lang=e&section=ele">ranged between 59 per cent (in 2008, the lowest ever in Canada’s history) and 65 per cent.</a> </p>
<p>Electoral participation is often regarded as a key measure of democratic health that is important for representative policy-making, government legitimacy and a strong civic culture. Falling rates of voter turnout have been a <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/tud&document=trends&lang=e">concern for a few decades</a>, prompting questions about why people do not vote and what can be done to engage them.</p>
<h2>Why people don’t vote</h2>
<p>Political scientists offer several explanations for the decision to vote.</p>
<p>One popular theory points to voters’ socio-demographic characteristics such as age, education and income as factors that explain whether or not they are likely to turn out. The older, more educated and higher income an elector, the more likely they are to cast a ballot.</p>
<p>This helps explain why young people vote less because as they age and encounter the responsibilities of adulthood such as marrying, buying a house and paying taxes, their perceived stake in politics grows and they become more likely to vote. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267177/original/file-20190402-177196-7m6egz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267177/original/file-20190402-177196-7m6egz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267177/original/file-20190402-177196-7m6egz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267177/original/file-20190402-177196-7m6egz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267177/original/file-20190402-177196-7m6egz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267177/original/file-20190402-177196-7m6egz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267177/original/file-20190402-177196-7m6egz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Seniors are more likely to vote than any other age group, although the 2015 federal election saw a significant increase in younger voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elections Canada</span></span>
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<p>Another explanation points to party identification. The stronger someone identifies with a political party, the more likely they are to go to the polls. Likewise, weak or unstable ties with a party might mean an elector stays home.</p>
<p>Mobilization is another consideration. Political organizations, parties, family and friends create pressures that encourage people to get out and vote. <a href="http://irpp.org/research-studies/choices-vol9-no7/">Research examining the switch from enumeration to a permanent voters’ list</a> shows this change had a negative effect on participation because enumerators were no longer going door-to-door.</p>
<p>Finally, another way to think about voter participation is the “cost” of voting — the time and distance it takes to travel to a polling station, time spent waiting in line and inclement weather are all considerations that might cause an elector to stay home. </p>
<p>These costs are an increasingly popular justification among non-voters for not casting a ballot.</p>
<p>Data from <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/eval/pes2011/elsvy&document=index&lang=e">Elections Canada’s Surveys of Electors</a>, for example, show that the proportion of non-voters who say they could not make it to the polls for “everyday life issues” such as being “too busy” or “out of town” has increased in recent years, occupying a larger group of responses than those who cite administrative reasons such as not being on voters’ list or being apathetic to the political process.</p>
<h2>What can be done to engage voters?</h2>
<p>Should we care that nearly one-third of Canadians aren’t voting? Or is it a sign of satisfaction? After all, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-canada-hasnt-noticed-but-quebec-nationalism-is-coming-back">the 1995 Québec referendum</a>, which took place after turnout for elections had started to decline, had a participation rate of 93.4 per cent — suggesting when a vote is perceived as important, electors will make the trip to the polls.</p>
<p>In 2016, the <a href="http://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/ERRE">federal government considered three reforms</a>: system change, online voting and compulsory voting. They decided against electoral system reform because of a lack of consensus on a suitable alternative. The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-mandatory-online-voting-1.4054412">other two were dismissed</a> because of debate over the benefits of compulsory voting and security concerns regarding online voting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267190/original/file-20190402-177171-ff7c3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267190/original/file-20190402-177171-ff7c3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267190/original/file-20190402-177171-ff7c3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267190/original/file-20190402-177171-ff7c3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267190/original/file-20190402-177171-ff7c3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267190/original/file-20190402-177171-ff7c3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267190/original/file-20190402-177171-ff7c3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many Canadian voters in the 2015 federal election faced long lineups at the polling stations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research suggests all of these reforms could improve voter participation to varying degrees.</p>
<p>However, while switching to a proportional system can increase turnout, in Canada the political costs of reform are steep. There have been numerous provincial attempts at reform in provinces such as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/electoral-reform-referendum-result-1.4955171">British Columbia</a>, Ontario, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island without success. </p>
<p>Compulsory and online voting are smaller changes to voting rules that are easier to implement. Both are contentious, albeit not to the degree of electoral system change. While both have been shown to increase turnout, neither is a panacea.</p>
<p>Australia, for example, where <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-07/why-do-we-have-compulsory-voting/7484390">compulsory voting is well-entrenched thanks to the passage of a private member’s bill in 1924</a>, is still considering other reforms such as online voting to further boost voter participation.</p>
<p>While compulsory voting imposes the vote, however, online voting can lower barriers and improve voting equality, especially for groups that face additional challenges when casting a ballot such as citizens or military overseas, persons with disabilities, remote and rural residents and students away at post-secondary school.</p>
<p>The added convenience and accessibility of online voting also has <a href="https://brocku.ca/brock-news/2018/10/brock-researcher-says-its-time-to-prepare-for-online-voting/">potential to counter reasons for not voting</a> such as “being too busy” or “out of town,” because electors can vote with the click of a button.</p>
<p>Not only is moving voting online synonymous with other changes to corporate and public services, it is also in line with recent trends that suggest voters want more choice and control at the ballot box such as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/advance-voting-ontario-1.4692174">increases in advance voting</a>.</p>
<p>If debates about voter turnout continue, which we can assume they will, eventually the federal government will need to modernize elections to meet changing societal expectations about service delivery.</p>
<p>This may not bring out new voters, but it could be the best way to counter further decline. We are probably more likely to return to the online voting debate than deliberations about compulsory voting or broader system change.</p>
<p><em>As part of <a href="http://thedemocracyproject.ca/">The Democracy Project</a>, CPAC will broadcast a live audience event on April 17 at Toronto’s Longboat Hall. Hosted by CPAC’s Peter Van Dusen and APTN’s Karyn Pugliese. This town hall will examine the state of democracy in Canada.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a story originally published on April 9, 2019. It clarifies voter turnout in recent elections.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112486/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Goodman receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Brock University. She is also Director at the Centre for e-Democracy and a Senior Associate at the Innovation Policy Lab in the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto.</span></em></p>About one-third of Canadians don’t bother to vote in federal elections. Many people cite “everyday life issues,” like the time it takes to vote, as reasons why they don’t participate.Nicole Goodman, Assistant Professor, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1042512019-03-26T17:58:42Z2019-03-26T17:58:42ZShould Australia lower the voting age to 16? We asked five experts<p>Voting is a key part of the democratic process. It allows all citizens of a certain age to have a say on matters important to them. Voting in federal elections and referendums is compulsory for every Australian aged 18 and over. </p>
<p>But decisions made by elected governments – especially in areas such as education, health and energy – impact young people too. Legal and political voices <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voting-age-should-be-lowered-to-16-law-expert-argues-20180711-p4zqvx.html">have long called</a> for Australia to lower the voting age to 16. After all, people under 18 can leave school, get a job, drive a car and pay taxes. So why not vote? </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/VotingAge">parliamentary inquiry</a> is currently looking into the issue. In the meantime, we asked five experts their views. Here’s what they said.</p>
<h2>Five out of five experts said yes</h2>
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<p><strong><em>Here are their detailed responses:</em></strong></p>
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<p><em>If you have a “<strong>yes or no</strong>” education question you’d like posed to Five Experts, email your suggestion to: sasha.petrova@theconversation.edu.au</em></p>
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<p><em>Disclosures: Louise Phillips has received competitively awarded funding from The Spencer Foundation, and the Queensland Department of Education, and is a current member of the Early Childhood Australia and the Australian Association for Research in Education.</em></p>
<p><em>Philippa Collin has received funding from a range of government and quasi-government agencies (NHMRC, Australian Research Council, Department for Industry and Innovation, Western Australian Children’s Commissioner, UNICEF) as well as industry (Google, Navitas English) and non-profits (Multicultural Youth Affairs Network NSW and the Foundation for Young Australians). She is a member of the Technology and Well-being Roundtable and the Australian NGO Child Rights Task Force and an expert advisor to the Raising Children Network.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
People under 18 can leave school, get a job, drive a car and pay taxes. Should they be allowed to vote too?Sasha Petrova, Section Editor: EducationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/958982018-05-17T13:16:27Z2018-05-17T13:16:27ZFive lessons from history that could help the Conservatives win back young voters<p>The Conservative Party has a problem engaging with young people. Although hard evidence is debatable, it is the Labour Party which is typically associated with youth in modern politics. Its grassroots movement Momentum, set up in the wake of Jeremy Corbyn’s 2015 Labour leadership victory, is known for its young membership and has plans to set up its own <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/building-on-2017-election-success-momentum-latest-news-jeremy-corbyn-young-members-social-media-a8153661.html">official youth wing</a>. By contrast the Conservative Party has a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/97b44f88-4509-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1">much older membership</a>, a fact which is causing some anxiety. </p>
<p>This wasn’t always the case. In the interwar years it was the Conservative Party which led the way in partisan youth. Its youth wing, the Junior Imperial League, boasted 250,000 members while Labour lagged behind. Labour’s official recommendation to form a youth wing came in 1924 – but it was closed down 12 years later due to Communist infiltration. </p>
<p>There were patchy attempts to reform the movement later, but it wasn’t until the Young Socialists in the 1960s that Labour had a firmly established youth wing. Now that the Conservatives hope to launch a <a href="https://inews.co.uk/opinion/tories-youth-momentum-activate/">new official youth movement</a>, they would benefit from looking to their past to see what lessons can be learned from the Junior Imperial League. </p>
<h2>1: Set a clear objective</h2>
<p>The Junior Imperial League was founded with a clear objective. Following the Conservatives’ 1906 electoral defeat, the league sought to: “create a practical interest in political work and organisation among the younger members of the Conservative and Unionist Party”. When it reformed after World War I it set out ten “principles” which clearly defined its motivations. Most of these related to the preservation of the British Empire, but one remains relevant today: “To interest and educate young men and women … in the political questions of the day and to assist them to take a larger share of public life.” </p>
<p>Having a clear set of principles gives any youth movement a goal to work towards and something for its members to focus on. In the case of the Junior Imperial League, that goal was primarily a practical interest in politics and the provision of political education.</p>
<h2>2: Provide training</h2>
<p>Junior Imperial League branches hosted mock trials (acting out imagined court cases), debates, study circles, speaking contests and lectures. The party even owned training colleges for speakers and propagandists. This was all part of a coherent effort to educate young people who would inevitably grow up to be voters following the 1918 and 1928 <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/electionsvoting/womenvote/case-study-the-right-to-vote/the-right-to-vote/birmingham-and-the-equal-franchise/1918-representation-of-the-people-act/">franchise acts</a>. </p>
<p>As modern political discourse becomes much more vitriolic, emotional, and less focused on facts and evidence, political education remains as important as ever and yet is often neglected.</p>
<h2>3: Have fun – but not too much fun</h2>
<p>The Junior Imperial League acknowledged the need to engage with popular leisure activities if it was to attract and retain members. This required a delicate balance in order to ensure it didn’t become a glorified social club, but also that it didn’t alienate those with only a casual interest in politics. Branches organised dances, fancy-dress evenings, film screenings, sports and cycling clubs, hikes and rambles, and many other things. My own experience of modern political youth wings tells me that this area is where they most often fall down – they have very little to offer those for whom politics is not a way of life.</p>
<p>The importance of keeping the movement somewhat light-hearted is underscored by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/17/inquiry-into-tory-bullying-scandal-finds-13-alleged-victims-of-mark-clarke">accusations of bullying</a> within the youth group Conservative Future which led to the suicide of a young activist. If young people only experience politics as high stress and highly serious it will inevitably lead to unpleasant behaviour. That will, in turn, drive away potential members. </p>
<h2>4: Be original</h2>
<p>The Junior Imperial League’s executive committee always looked for ways to improve the organisation and to stay ahead of the other parties. It observed and adapted to its opponents’ tactics, frequently taking the initiative rather than mimicking what had come before. The modern Conservative Party must do the same.</p>
<p>The Conservative grassroots movement <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/09/short-life-and-brutal-death-activate-tory-momentum">Activate UK</a> ran into problems from the outset because it tried to emulate Labour’s Momentum. The group launched by posting an outdated Star Wars meme on Twitter which was roundly mocked. This showed only a cursory understanding of what made Labour’s social media campaign successful. It also highlights the need for originality, rather than copying what came first and expecting it to be as successful.</p>
<h2>5: Be sincere</h2>
<p>While the Junior Imperial League’s political education aimed to teach people why they should vote Conservative, rather than teaching them to make up their own minds, there is little doubt that then-Conservative leader, <a href="https://www.alistairlexden.org.uk/news/stanley-baldwin-and-birth-one-nation-conservatism">Stanley Baldwin</a>, was sincere when he expressed a desire to “make democracy safe for the world” by educating young people. Any modern Conservative youth movement must operate with the right intentions. </p>
<p>The Junior Imperial League gave its members opportunities to serve the movement on a local and national level. Its executive committee, made up of rank-and-file members and senior Conservative officials, gave members the opportunity to have their voices heard: for example members’ concerns over the Junior Imperial League’s name were addressed when the movement reformed as the Young Conservatives after World War II.</p>
<p>The Conservatives today must not let past accusations of bullying steer them into creating a tightly managed and focus group-tested movement designed to turn young people into mindless activists. They must be willing to engage with the young people they seek to recruit and offer them some amount of control over their own movement.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Today’s political climate is very different to that of the interwar years but political engagement continues to be a challenge. While Labour’s membership surges and its popularity grows among the young, the Conservatives’ membership is a cause of some <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42565294">embarrassment to the party</a>. If it is to make up for ground lost in the 2017 general election, the party needs to learn to engage with young people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Seddon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Theresa May’s party struggled to appeal to younger voters. But that wasn’t always the case.Matthew Seddon, PhD Candidate, Associate Lecturer, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/942472018-04-04T10:47:46Z2018-04-04T10:47:46ZToday’s youth reject capitalism, but what do they want to replace it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212860/original/file-20180402-189821-131rfk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Today's youth are increasingly rejecting capitalism.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Phil Sears</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today’s youth <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/26/a-majority-of-millennials-now-reject-capitalism-poll-shows/?utm_term=.e8f05f5285ed">are increasingly unhappy</a> with the way their elders are running the world. </p>
<p>Their ire was most recently expressed when <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/3/19/17139654/march-for-our-lives-dc-march-24-protest">thousands of teenagers</a> and others across the country marched on March 24 demanding more gun control, a little over a month after more than <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/15/us/florida-shooting-victims-school/index.html">a dozen of their peers</a> were shot and killed at a high school in Parkland, Florida.</p>
<p>But there’s growing evidence that today’s young adults, ranging in age from 18 to 29 or so, are strongly dissatisfied with other fundamental aspects of our political and economic system. Specifically, growing numbers are rejecting capitalism. </p>
<p>This led us – a sociologist and an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DWGTo1cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">economist</a> – to wonder how would young people redesign the economic system if they could. The answer, based on recent surveys, should make any status-quo politician seriously rethink their economic policies.</p>
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<span class="caption">Demonstrators march through Cincinnati during the March for Our Lives protest for gun legislation and school safety.</span>
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<h2>Rejecting capitalism</h2>
<p>We first wanted to better understand how young people feel about the current economic system. </p>
<p>So we started by examining a <a href="http://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/content/160423_Harvard%20IOP_Spring%202016_TOPLINE_u.pdf">troubling 2016 Harvard University survey</a> that found that 51 percent of American youth aged 18 to 29 no longer support capitalism. Only 42 percent said they back it, while just 19 percent were willing to call themselves “capitalists.” </p>
<p>While it may be true that young people of any generation tend to have less support for incumbent economic and political systems and tend to change their views as they age, past polls on the topic suggest this is a new phenomenon felt especially by today’s youth. A <a href="http://www.aei.org/publication/an-enduring-culture-of-free-enterprise/">2010 Gallop poll</a> showed that only 38 percent of young people had a negative view of capitalism – and that was right after the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression, which <a href="https://d-nb.info/1011870347/34">hit young people</a> especially hard.</p>
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<p>What can we make of this? Do they prefer socialism, in which the government more actively regulates and intervenes in the economy and restricts individual choice? </p>
<p>It’s unclear. The Harvard poll showed just 33 percent said they favor socialism. A <a href="http://reason.com/poll">separate poll</a>, however, conducted in 2015 by conservative-leaning Reason-Rupe, found that young adults aged 18 to 24 have a slightly more favorable view of socialism than capitalism. </p>
<p>Their views contrast markedly with their older peers, who consistently tell pollsters they prefer capitalism by wide margins – more so as their age climbs. Still, the share of the overall population that questions capitalism’s core precepts is around the highest in at least 80 years of polling on the topic. </p>
<p>To be sure, the questions pollsters ask Americans vary significantly from poll to poll, and sample sizes aren’t always large enough to draw firm conclusions. </p>
<p>All the same, the data suggest that today’s young people are part of a vanguard of Americans losing faith in capitalism and ready to embrace something new. </p>
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<h2>But what do they want?</h2>
<p>So if young people are increasingly rejecting capitalism but they’re ambivalent about socialism, what do they want? </p>
<p>To answer this, we need to explore what about capitalism they find so unsatisfying. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/26/a-majority-of-millennials-now-reject-capitalism-poll-shows/?utm_term=.e8f05f5285ed">follow-up focus group</a> to the Harvard study concluded that many of these young people feel that “capitalism was unfair and left people out despite their hard work.” A 2012 survey by the <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/01/11/rising-share-of-americans-see-conflict-between-rich-and-poor/">Pew Research Center found</a> that 71 percent of those 18-34 years of age perceive strong conflicts between the rich and the poor in American society. </p>
<p>A majority of young people said they believe that those with means got there because “they know the right people or were born into wealthy families.” </p>
<p>These views on the inequality inherent in the American economic system command majorities of Republicans, Democrats, Independents, conservatives, moderates and liberals. To us, this suggests the critical reason young people have lost faith in capitalism is that it has lost its ability to be fair. But they don’t seem to think an alternate system such as socialism can fix the problem.</p>
<p>Rather, we can begin to piece together what might work, in their view, by examining a <a href="https://www.nceo.org/assets/pdf/articles/PPP_results_employee_ownership.pdf">2015 survey by Public Policy Polling</a>, which asked participants their views on employee-owned companies and government intervention to encourage them. </p>
<p>The poll found that 75 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds support this, far more than every other age category, while 83 percent said employee-owned companies are as American as apple pie, hot dogs and baseball. </p>
<p>So these polls in a way suggest young people don’t want less capitalism, they want more of it. They just want to make sure it’s shared more broadly, such as by making it easier for more of us to become capitalists and share in the wealth we collectively create. </p>
<p>As two professors meeting this generation daily in our classrooms, we have been surprised by the strong support for these concepts in our college courses on economics and corporate governance.</p>
<p>Other surveys suggest that the desire for a more inclusive form of capitalism is becoming more widely held. A <a href="http://news.gallup.com/reports/199961/state-american-workplace-report-2017.aspx#aspnetForm">2016 Gallup State of the American Workplace</a> survey found that 40 percent of all American workers would leave their company to work for one that had profit-sharing.</p>
<p>And it’s becoming increasingly easy to do that as more companies in the U.S. embrace employee ownership in one form or another, some drawn by its <a href="http://papers.nber.org/books/krus08-1">ability to reduce turnover</a> and <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/search/node/blasi">improve economic performance</a>. And just last year, a <a href="https://www.certifiedeo.com/about_us">company started up in Silicon Valley</a> offering certification of employee-owned businesses “to build an employee-owned economy.” </p>
<h2>Gunning for the economy</h2>
<p>What Americans witnessed on March 24 was an energetic, dynamic and powerful new political force in America.</p>
<p>Right now it’s focused on guns. But this force may well turn its attention to the structure of corporations and an economic system that has led to ever-widening levels of inequality. </p>
<p>Just as lawmakers may want to rethink their views on gun rights, they may also want to begin re-examining their understanding of what capitalism is supposed to look like. </p>
<p><iframe id="z4GKq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/z4GKq/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Blasi is affiliated with Rutgers University as a professor.
I also have an affiliation as a Senior Fellow with the The Aspen Institute.
I am currently co-principal investigator of a W.K. Kellogg Foundation research grant on employee ownership and modest income employees. The National Bureau for Economic Research Shared Capitalism Project received funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation, and the Employee Ownership Foundation for our University of Chicago book's research. The Institute of which I serve as director, the Institute for the Study of Employee Ownership and Profit Sharing receives funding from a number of foundations and individual donors to support fellowships and conferences in this area. The professorship I hold was endowed by the Beyster Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Kruse is affiliated with Rutgers University as a professor. I also have an affiliation as a Research Fellow of the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn. I am currently co-principal investigator of a W.K. Kellogg Foundation research grant on employee ownership and modest income employees. The National Bureau for Economic Research Shared Capitalism Project received funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation, and the Employee Ownership Foundation for our University of Chicago book's research. The Institute of which I serve as associate director, the Institute for the Study of Employee Ownership and Profit Sharing receives funding from a number of foundations and individual donors to support fellowships and conferences in this area. I am a Beyster Faculty Fellow at Rutgers supported by the Beyster Foundation.</span></em></p>The recent March for Our Lives showed just how unsatisfied American youth are with their leaders. Recent polls suggest the economic system may be the next item on their agenda.Joseph Blasi, J. Robert Beyster Distinguished Professor and Director of the Institute for the Study of Employee Ownership and Profit Sharing, School of Management and Labor Relations, Rutgers UniversityDouglas L. Kruse, Distinguished Professor and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, Rutgers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.