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Australia records its warmest spring

The spring of 2013 has been Australia’s warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average, surpassing the previous record of 1.43C (set in 2006) by 0.14C. Daytime…

Sydney’s September was warmer than its November, a very unusual occurence. Stilgherrian/Flickr

The spring of 2013 has been Australia’s warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average, surpassing the previous record of 1.43C (set in 2006) by 0.14C. Daytime maximum temperatures were also the highest on record, coming in 2.07C above average and 0.24C above the previous record (also set in 2006), while overnight minimum temperatures were the fourth-warmest on record.

The warmth was most dramatic in September, which saw a mean temperature anomaly of +2.75C, setting a new monthly record by more than a degree. October was also a very warm month, 1.43C above average. Temperatures during November were closer to normal, 0.52C above average, but were still warm enough to complete a record spring.

The warmth was extensive, with virtually the entire country experiencing above-average mean temperatures for the spring. It was the warmest spring on record over an area covering most of western Queensland (sufficient to give Queensland its warmest spring on record), and extending into the eastern interior of the Northern Territory.

Records were also set on the west coast around Perth, on the east coast around Sydney, and on parts of the Nullarbor. The spring ranked in the 10 warmest on record over 83% of the country.

Strong westerly winds were a feature of the prevailing weather over southern parts of the continent during September and October. This brought unusually wet weather to western Tasmania, southwest Victoria, and southwest Western Australia — regions that are exposed to maritime westerlies.

Dark orange shows areas where mean temperatures in spring 2013 were the highest on record. Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Conversely, the same general westerly airflow brought persistently dry and hot weather to inland regions across the southeast. These conditions, combined with a record warm winter and little rainfall since July, saw significant early season fire activity in central eastern NSW in September and October.

The low soil moisture in some parts of the southeast also contributed to unusually large daily temperature ranges during October. Maximum temperatures were well above average but minimum temperatures were below average. An early start to the growing season combined with late frosts caused major crop losses in southern New South Wales and northern Victoria on 18 October.

October was also notable for heat in the northern tropics. Fitzroy Crossing in northern WA reached 40C on each of the first 29 days of the month, an unprecedented sequence at any Australian station this early in the year.

Shows the number of degrees mean maximum temperatures were above/below normal. Australian Bureau of Meteorology

The pattern of westerlies broke down around the end of October, and most of November was dominated by easterly flow. This brought moist conditions (and frequent severe thunderstorms) to the east coast. Easterly flow off the continent brought consistently hot conditions to western parts of Western Australia, where many locations had their hottest November on record.

It was a rather cool November in the southeast, particularly in Tasmania and southern Victoria, but was not far enough below average to offset the very warm September, except in a few parts of Tasmania. In central Sydney average maximum temperatures for November were cooler than those for September, something which has only happened once before, in 1998.

Another feature of the spring was unusually heavy early-season rain in the northern tropics. In a normal year, November sees scattered thunderstorms across regions such as the Kimberley and the Top End. Widespread heavy rain, however, does not normally develop until the monsoon becomes established in December or January. In 2013, general rains developed during the second half of November (including with unusually early landfalling tropical cyclone, Alessia). Spring rainfall was above average through most of the far north and approached record levels in a few places.

The record warm spring leaves Australia on track to have its warmest calendar year on record. Mean temperatures for Australia for the 11 months ending in November were 1.23C above average and 0.18C above the previous record year, 2005.

The three month climate outlook for December 2013 to February 2014 favours wetter-than-average conditions across much of Western Australia, western Victoria and Tasmania, and dry and warm conditions along much of the east coast of Australia.

Join the conversation

101 Comments sorted by

Comments on this article are now closed.

  1. James Hill

    Industrial Designer

    Does that second map show signs of a new Ice Age returning to Van Diemens Land?
    Similar things happening in Tierra Del Fuego?

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr.

      In reply to James Hill

      From the article
      "It was a rather cool November in the southeast, particularly in Tasmania and southern Victoria, but was not far enough below average to offset the very warm September, except in a few parts of Tasmania."

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    2. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to James Hill

      No doubt James if you saw an even bigger anomaly trend over a number of years and it did not reverse.

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    3. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Alice Kelly

      " James, a map is a map is a map. "
      Unfortunately Alice, some people can get lost even when they have clear instructions and put them with a navigational aid and they'll even be worse.
      At least with Australia it can be a bit like keeping the ocean on your left or right depending on which way you go though some could still end up in PNG.

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    4. Alice Kelly
      Alice Kelly is a Friend of The Conversation.

      sole parent

      In reply to Greg North

      That second map showing a + 3 C anomaly goes a long way to explaining recent major droughts in western Queensland and NSW. I wonder how long we can keep paying drought relief. Maps for land use will inevitably be considered. Or maybe we can get lost right here and pretend to be an ostrich.

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    5. Evelyn Haskins

      retired

      In reply to Greg North

      Yeah. It is a buffer living inland.

      And in the tropics where the north wanders around so much in it even worse!

      But in Alace springs doesn't Ayres Rock (aka Uluru) stay in the one place?

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  2. Elena Berwick

    Accountant

    I do not know about Australia and would talk about Melbourne only. back in 2004-2007 in Melbourne we had hot temperatures for 6 months during every year and almost no rain.
    Now in 2012 and 2013 we have cooler temperatures, still no real summer and no more than 3 months of hot weather.

    Are we going to say that Melbourne is having the coolest two years within the last decade? If we are, so what?

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    1. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Elena Berwick

      re: "If we are, so what? " 'So what' nothing. If it is true it is true. Is it? What does the data say Elena?

      'So what' we have here is 'the warmest on record' versus your argumentative point of 'the last decade'.

      You're right Elena..... You do not know about Australia .... or much about anything on this subject. Lots of ideas, lots of beliefs, lots of opinions, lots of words, lots of claims, and lots of mistakes. But really, that is about it. :)

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    2. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Mr Hansen I believe.

      As I have said below, if Mr Trewin, Climatologist, gets his prediction right, good, but if he gets it wrong, it will be very very embarrassing for one of Australia's leading scientific organisations.

      I just hope the boss of said organisation gave the go ahead to roll the dice.

      Gerard Dean

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    3. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Jane Rawson

      Oh dear, the editor of Energy & Environment is clearly on one side of this argument.

      I wonder if the editor shares my misgivings about the wisdom of a single climatologist making a prediction that could come true, but may not, and if it does not, will severely embarrass the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

      Perhaps she can confirm it the bureau gave it's approval to be named at the head of the article. Because if Mr Trewin gets it wrong - we will have another English Met implosion.

      Gerard Dean

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    4. David Arthur

      resistance gnome

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      "Oh dear, the editor of Energy & Environment is clearly on one side of this argument."

      That's right, Mr Dean, Ms Rawson is on the side of accurate reporting.

      It's called "reality" - may be a little unfamiliar to some of you.

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    5. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Elena Berwick

      You do know what is often said about Melbourne weather Elena, four seasons in one day and so if you do not like the weather, just wait up a few minutes!
      It probably varies year to year or did often enough when I was down that way.

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    6. Jane Rawson

      Editor, Energy & Environment at The Conversation

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Mr Dean, if you've ever been in the public service, you'll know that there are very strict rules about who can say what and who must approve what. Public servants don't speak on their own behalf.

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    7. Henry Verberne

      Once in the fossil fuel industry but now free to speak up

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      She was supplying objective stats Gerard. Is that so wrong or do you only approve when you own ideological bias is confirmed?

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    8. Chris O'Neill

      Retired Way Before 70

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      "will severely embarrass the Australian Bureau of Meteorology."

      As if he cares.

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  3. Gerard Dean

    Managing Director

    Why oh why do they do it?

    Who exactly in the Bureau of Meteorology ok'd the author to make the statement, ' The record warm spring leaves Australia on track to have its warmest calendar year on record.'

    Arguably the world's best weather bureau, the British Met have finally given up on predicting seasonal or annual predictions following disastrously incorrect failures including their infamous 'Barbecue Summer' that ended one of the coolest summers on record.

    The Met's problem was that it…

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      PhD Physicist

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Dean is no conservative - nor is any one who denies the science. They are radical wreckers.

      A conservative would seek to keep the planet within the bounds that nurtured the civilization that we enjoy

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    2. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Actually Mike, on this point ... ""Climate change takes decades [...] to make an appreciable difference noticeable by humans."" Mr Dean is actually correct here on this narrowed point and it should be acknowledged imho.

      Fact is given there has been decades of climate changes already, and given that these things are in fact noticeable by humans across the globe already, even absent any data from the scientists, then this should be the point being made back to him in spades. :) cheers

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    3. Jane Rawson

      Editor, Energy & Environment at The Conversation

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Mr Dean, if you'd like to see what the Bureau as an organisation has to say about current and predicted temperatures, try here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/

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    4. Alice Kelly
      Alice Kelly is a Friend of The Conversation.

      sole parent

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard, in case you don't read the full report Jane gave the link for; "The Remainder of 2013
      Temperatures for the calendar year to date (January to October 2013) are also the warmest on record, at 1.32 C above the long-term average, well above the value for January to October 2005 (+1.08 C). The record for Australia's warmest calendar year is currently held by 2005."
      Yes Gerard, it seems Blair is right, because "The current seasonal outlooks suggests a strong shifts towards warmer than average temperatures." And there would have to be a much greater decrease in November to December temperatures than seems to be happening, for this year not to be the hottest on record.
      Why do you want Blair Trewin to be wrong?

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    5. Mike Hansen

      Mr.

      In reply to Jane Rawson

      Thanks for the link Jane. The last climate statement from the bureau was at the end of October.
      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a006-oct-2013-ytd-temperature.shtml

      It points out that the "continuation of unusually high spring temperatures has been sufficient to break the national record for the warmest 12-month period again, the third consecutive month in which a new record has been set."

      At the end of the article, they examine the "Temperature Scenarios for the Remainder of 2013"

      If the "Last 2 months of 2013 are **coldest on record**" then 2013 would *only* be the 4th warmest year on record.

      In all the other scenarios, 2013 will be Australia's **warmest year on record**. Even if temperatures return to the 1961–1990 average (anomaly of +0.00 °C) for Nov and Dec.

      I can see why Gerard objects to you pointing to more fact based articles. Facts are like kryptonite to climate science deniers.

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    6. Chris O'Neill

      Retired Way Before 70

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      "predicted hotter summers in line with current climate change model predictions, and they got them wrong with recent winters"

      So winter is summer in Dean's world.

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  4. Paul Felix

    Builder

    Living in Hobart this year does not so much affirm global warming as local weather madness.
    "It was a rather cool November in the southeast, particularly in Tasmania and southern Victoria," you would have to live here and work outside to appreciate what an understatement that is, miserably wet and cold, after a winter that meant I could wear shorts for all but 2 days.

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    1. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Paul Felix

      re : "as local weather madness." which in itself is a clear sign of climate change via noticeable changes in normal weather patterns.

      The same exists in nth nsw and Brisbane region. Whereas the article speaks about the end of the westerlies in the SE of Aus in early Nov, up here those totally abnormal westerlies are in fact persisting through all of November bar a few exceptional days. This is not normal climate for this region, by a long shot. Totally different, as those westerlies usually…

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  5. Paul Felix

    Builder

    I have just read most and skimmed through all of What Next Vol 3.
    A recounting of global warming inaction over the past 2 years from the perspective of developing countries and the poor.
    It makes depressing but absolutely compelling reading, especially after our effort 2 weeks ago.

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    1. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Paul Felix

      What effort 2 weeks ago?

      Surely you are not talking about the gathering of less than 0.0015% of the Australian population at Climate Change protests.

      And of that tiny percentage of Australians, an even tinier percentage walked or cycled to the event. Most drove their fossil fuel powered cars.

      And furthermore, many will choose to burn fossil jet fuel to fly interstate or overseas for personal enjoyment.

      The more things stay the same, the more things stay the same.

      Gerard Dean

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    2. Paul Felix

      Builder

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Your right I was not talking about people taking action for change I was talking about the international criticism of Australia at the Warsaw meeting, when we and 2 other countries refused to agree to any changes or actions and prevented any meaningful outcome, no matter how meager.
      Is it too much to hope you may read the book or look at the website with an open mind.

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    3. Jim Inglis

      retired

      In reply to Paul Felix

      Maybe we were smart to keep out of it when the satellites only show ~ 0.3c warming since 1978 and only cooling this century.

      The BoM's results come from convenient, recently introduced thermometers as opposed to inconvenient, discarded old thermometers.

      Satellite measurement correlates very well with ground thermometers but gives a much better and more honest coverage.

      http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/screenhunter_1084-sep-29-18-46.jpg

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    4. Chris O'Neill

      Retired Way Before 70

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      So how much global warming would there be if the only CO2 emissions came from jet fuel?

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  6. Mark Harrigan

    PhD Physicist

    And what are the odds that this news appears anywhere prominent in the traditional daily print media?

    Or if does what sort of denialist spin it will have. This message - and other's like it where we have experienced the warmest (insert period and location here) on record needs to be published more broadly.

    But the maintream press and journalists and their editors are in denial.

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    1. In reply to Gerard Dean

      Comment removed by moderator.

    2. Mark Harrigan

      PhD Physicist

      In reply to James Jenkin

      Thanks James. Now, the question remains - is the Age "mainstream" ?? Just kidding. But we'll really see progress if the tabloids and the Australian carry such things prominently (without denialist spin or false "balance").

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  7. Mark McGuire

    climate consensus rebel

    if only it was 'global' warming: "The summer Australian Antarctic Division program will have to be modified because its icebreaker the Aurora Australis has been delayed in heavy ice." http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-25/ice-delays-australian-antarctic-icebreaker-aurora-australis/5114778 . My favourite quote from this link:"It is not known when conditions will improve." Maybe if they contact Blair@BoM, as he can predict the future when it comes to 'global warming.'

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      PhD Physicist

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      The amusing part of your post is that you actually think you have made a point rather than revealing appalling ignorance and lack of understanding.

      Way to go :)

      Do you even understand what the term "climate" means? Can you understand what a time and space average is - or an outlier? or cherry picking?

      In fact do you understand anything at all about that which you deny?

      IF you are interested in actually learning and being driven by data I suggest you read this

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global

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    2. Mark McGuire

      climate consensus rebel

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Greetings Mark. Thanks for that link. As you are aware, Australia was drought free in April, 2012. http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/its-official-australia-no-longer-in-drought-20120427-1xpsp.html . A quick check of NOAA Global Analysis - April 2012, shows no evidence, nor mentions it. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/4 . Neither does the BoM. You can check that claim if you want. As a doctor, you might want to ask why they deny this good news. Then again, I see what you consider a "highlight." Must be fun having you read a diagnosis out to a cancer patient, "Here's the good part," says Dr Mark, it's 95% curable. We have consensus." Do I "even understand what the term "climate" means?" Like you, I get my advice from the experts who say "climate is now weather": http://www.theage.com.au/national/climate-change-a-key-factor-in-extreme-weather-experts-say-20130303-2fefv.html

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    3. Mark McGuire

      climate consensus rebel

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Greetings again, Mark. Here is a little update on that global warming from NOAA: "NOAA reported last week that at least “sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific have not been consistently warm or cool since Spring 2012, and we expect this to continue at least through next spring.” You might want to note how the Old Farmer's Almanac does it's forecasting and their success rate. Maybe you can report their success rate here? How many new record lows temps were set over Thanksgiving in USA during Australia's 'Angry Spring"? http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2013/1130/Mean-Old-Man-Winter-steps-down-from-the-North-early-Will-he-stick-around-video . How does this confirm global warming?

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    4. Mark Harrigan

      PhD Physicist

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      Continuing to display astounding ill informed ignorance I see. Are you really that dim?

      1) The article to which you link does not state that "climate is now weather" It makes the point (that climate scientists have been making for a while) that the increased heat being retained by the planet is shifting the climate so that extreme weather events are more likely. Try reading it again. It's very clear (unless you are a dunce).

      2) Typical of deniers you introduce a new furphy rather than address…

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    5. Mark Harrigan

      PhD Physicist

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      What twaddle

      Again your appalling ignorance on the topic is on display. It is well established scientifically that Climate Change has resulted in changes and slowing to the jet stream. This leads to increased cold air being directed further south in the USA and for longer periods during the northern hemisphere winter

      It doesn't change the FACTS though that overall, globally, on average temperatures are increasing.

      What part of that can you not understand?

      A planet that retains more energy will have more weather extremes and shift in stable weather patterns. Do try and keep up if you are going to pretend to deny that which you clearly have no understanding of.

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    6. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      re: "How does this confirm global warming?"

      How does it deny it? :)

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    7. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      Re: "Australia was drought free in April, 2012"

      Well, is it still drought free? Nope :)

      How does being drought free - when Australia has often been drought free now and then - prove anything about the science of climate change AGW and the obvious conditions that do not require any science to recognise a shift in climate in multiple regions of the planet?

      No, please, no need to respond, it's fine, really it is. Thanks anyway.

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    8. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      re: "Are you really that dim?"

      No. Just another anti-science troll pushing buttons on TheCon with sophistry and poor rational debating skills. . :)

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    9. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      No worries Mark Mc .. extreme high temps, record avg temps, typhoon Haiyan, and the data in the IPCC AR5 WGI these are not issues nor examples confirm AGW/CC as true, but an icebreaker in the antarctic well that definitely proves the whole edifice is falling down about AGW/CC and is thus untrue and unscientific. And you even have newspaper reports to back up your rigourous investigation that proves your opinion is the correct one.

      OK. Very sharp. :)

      Have you yourself read the AR5 WGI Summary…

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    10. Neil Gibson

      Retired Electronics Design Engineer

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      "Well established scientifically " Codswollop. The warmists have been panicking with successive horror NH winters and had to come up with a theory as why global warming was causing freezing! Last cockamanie theory was that it was the lack of arctic ice that was causing it and we wait with bated breath for the next pseudo-science explanation as current arctic ice levels are much higher.
      Incidentally 2013 UK autumn temperatures were at a 20 year low but that would not be mentioned on this site.

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    11. Alice Kelly
      Alice Kelly is a Friend of The Conversation.

      sole parent

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      Sea ice again Mark? Now give some figures for ice sheet mass. Because record sea ice extent is a result of climate change, and not evidence of no climate change.
      Greenland sheet ice loss;
      http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20121226_GreenlandIceSheetUpdate.pdf
      Antarctica where disintegration is well underway for many ice shelves.
      http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/iceshelves.html

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    12. Mark McGuire

      climate consensus rebel

      In reply to Sean Arundell

      Greetings Sean. I am making my way through AR5, mainly when referencing for debates, as, despite big oil & big tobacco funding, the cheques never in the mail, and time is at a premium for this rebel. I like the part about less cyclones. As you have obviously read the whole report, can you "highlight" the changes made to the report after mistakes were made. http://www.nbcnews.com/science/u-n-climate-panel-corrects-carbon-numbers-influential-report-2D11577699 , discovered by the authors of the report after its approval and acceptance by the IPCC." Do these mistakes reduce the 95% confidence to 94% confidence?
      Maybe there is a addition in the footnotes that I have missed. Just a link needed. No rants. Thanks in advance.

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    13. Mark McGuire

      climate consensus rebel

      In reply to Sean Arundell

      Quote: "Well, is it still drought free? Nope :)" Very 'sharp,' Sean.
      As Australia was drought FREE when carbon(sic) levels reached unprecedented levels of 400ppm, http://ca.news.yahoo.com/video/record-level-greenhouse-gases-raise-150508425.html , WHAT is causing the current drought, and where is this 'drought' situated? Are they getting rain at the moment? Being an avid reader of UN-IPCC reports, can you"highlight" where did they predict the drought would break? Also, wasn't the polar regions supposed to be the first place we would see evidence of global warming according to the UN-IPCC?
      As for debating skill, I have yet to resort to name calling and abuse , a standard debating skill here at theCon, as Dr. Mark demonstrates above.

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    14. Mark McGuire

      climate consensus rebel

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Greetings Dr. Mark. Re: weather is now climate. It seems clear- "It might even be the case that the mantra chanted after every catastrophic weather event - that it can't be said to be caused by climate change, but it shows what climate change will do - has become a thing of the past." And, "A few years ago, talking about weather and climate change in the same breath was a cardinal sin for scientists.Now it has become impossible to have a conversation about the weather without discussing wider climate trends ... "
      Again. That seems clear what Steffen is saying.
      http://www.theage.com.au/national/climate-change-a-key-factor-in-extreme-weather-experts-say-20130303-2fefv.html

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    15. Mark McGuire

      climate consensus rebel

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      I note theCon is disallowing my latest comments to be published in response to the abuse, name calling and unsubstantiated claims some people are allowed to do here, so I will not waste any more time here today in responding. Until next time, enjoy the echo chamber.

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    16. Jane Rawson

      Editor, Energy & Environment at The Conversation

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      You have six comments in a row here - what is this disallowing?

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    17. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      An intelligent well informed citizen would already know that as opposed to this the theory that "NOT predicted by any UN-IPCC models" ... that the IPCC does not do regional forecasts, projections nor "predictions" of regional futures in particular time frames as suggested.

      Therefore your point is actually null and void, and only a misguided thought bubble imho. More research and reading up may help you get your facts more accurate in the future. Therefore the links offered. It would be a nice start at least. Yes, I am suggesting you are fundamentally wrong at a basic level.

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    18. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      from the NEWSPAPER link in 2000:
      According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
      "Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

      On the assumption (that would be a crazy thing to do though) the tele has accurately quoted Dr Viner, this article is meaningless DRIBBLE. Dr Viner and NO single individual represents the SCIENCE of the community nor IPCC AR5 WGI ..... Frankly you do not know who to think critically for yourself. This may explain your predilection to denier fallacies. Real evidence true facts may be too complicated for you, or maybe you just refuse to even look. <shrug>

      All you seem to have are news urls provided by multiple science deniers and conspiracy whackos. Oh well, not my head. You are responsible for yours not me.

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    19. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      re: " UN-IPCC reports, can you"highlight" where did they predict the drought would break? "

      bad try .. the IPCC reports DO NOT have never, and will never do this kind of thing you IMAGINE THEY DO, or should do. That's like complaining to Dominoes Pizza that they totally failed to deliver your Chinese delivery meal from Hu Flung Dung Restaurant.

      IRRATIONAL and BS and Lying misrepresentation is what your comments like this are usually called.

      Only a psychological blind man would say this…

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    20. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Mark McGuire

      re " mainly when referencing for debates, " .. well not that I'm going out of my to follow you contributions but I have never seen you ref quote the IPCC directly, let alone the AR5 WGI. I guess there is always a first time.

      re your link, I didnt hear about that. Not surpised, it's as important as Tony Abbott losing a sock. :)

      ""Errors in the summary for policymakers were discovered by the authors of the report after its approval and acceptance by the IPCC," it said in a statement."

      READ…

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    21. Neil Gibson

      Retired Electronics Design Engineer

      In reply to Alice Kelly

      Arctic sea ice for this date is the highest it has been in a decade .
      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
      Of course all the claptrap about the Arctic's unprecedented melting we read assumes that arctic ice history starts with the satellite era but empirical data shows the warmists claims as nonsense. The Russians had a pretty good idea of what was happening.
      eg http://mclean.ch/climate/Arctic_1920_40.htm
      As Arctic ice cyclically recovers we will urgently need a new "scientific " theory showing that all the extra ice is also caused by global warming.

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    22. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Sean Arundell

      Hi Mark, now that (I hope) I have your attention, I will offer you some genuine solutions and positive strategies I have learnt from hard experience. <smile>

      First, a smile and a kind word costs nothing and yet gives so much! <wink>

      I first heard about the term 'logical fallacies' in the late 1990s online. I was over 40 years old, and suddenly realised I didn't have a clue how much I was being played, and also how poorly I could argue issues with others online. One of the earliest decent…

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    23. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Sean Arundell

      typo: "This is usually applied with knowing INTENT, which is a cut ABOVE MERELY poor debaters using fallacies UNKNOWINGLY."

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  8. David Arthur

    resistance gnome

    Thanks for this explainer, Dr Trewin.

    In the Northern Hemisphere, trends are towards greater seasonal variability at mid-latitudes, in turn explained by slowing jet streams.

    I wonder if something similar is affecting Tasmania?

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  9. Greg North

    Retired Engineer

    The article covers some of the extremes that have occurred and certainly some areas have been dry and warm which is not too surprising and probably less surprising if we had accurate records over much longer periods.
    Just what averages can mean over such a large area is questionable given variables that do occur and some can be seen by having a look at BOM information - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/extreme/records.shtml

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    1. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Greg North

      re "The article covers some of the extremes" yeah sure, so what? It also is foucusing on the continental avg mean surface temps across the board and another unprecedented RECORD that has been set yet again.

      "The spring of 2013 has been Australia’s warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average.."

      And the 12 months July to June was another record high temp avg. Last summer was a record. Last year 2102 was a record .. I think 15,000 all time high temp and avg records were broken last year in Australia. In the USA I think the figure was 20,000 .. but do't quote me, look it up. :)

      Feel free to read my various replies to the issues you raised here Greg. Anytime you have the time. https://theconversation.com/indian-ocean-linked-to-bushfires-and-drought-in-australia-20893#comment_267024

      Cheers sean

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    2. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Greg North

      "The spring of 2013 has been Australia’s warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average.."

      Does not sound like a hiatus or a pause or a cooling trend since 1998 to me. Northern hemisphere is not cooling to make up for this. and it is already known the southern hemisphere is marginally cooler than the nth as it is. Something not adding here from the as yet unsure, not convinced, nor the entrenched skeptics and the extreme denier propaganda by activists pov in this field imho.

      Maybe this summer things will start cooling globally, and the arctic ice won't hardly melt at all next northern summer. Time will tell. yeah?

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    3. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Alice Kelly

      Yes Alice, and what Sean likes to highlight
      " "The spring of 2013 has been Australia’s warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average.."
      Would seem to be a trend over a very short period of time relative to life on earth and earths existence.

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  10. Rene Oldenburger

    Haven't got one

    September + 2.75 C
    October +1.43 C
    November + 0.52 C

    Cool summer coming up

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    1. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Rene Oldenburger

      re "Cool summer coming up"

      Do you promise? :)

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    2. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Alice Kelly

      " Rene, cool summer would be below a 0.00 anomaly figure. How do you know this will happen? "
      I think Rene may be using your book of rules Alice and trending it over an even shorter time frame .
      He might be right and then again he could be wrong.
      All very trendy we could say.
      I wonder what the latest IPCC modelling would indicate!

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    3. Rene Oldenburger

      Haven't got one

      In reply to Sean Arundell

      Of course I do - pretty cool summer so far in Adelaide :)

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    4. Rene Oldenburger

      Haven't got one

      In reply to Suzy Gneist

      I'm a climate scientist, same as every one else

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    5. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Rene Oldenburger

      Well so long the temps go up to near 40 during the Ashes test, I'll be happier - Go AUSSIES :)

      It can cool down after that , hehehe.

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    6. Rene Oldenburger

      Haven't got one

      In reply to Sean Arundell

      Adelaide
      Dec 3 - 30 C Rain developing - Global Warming
      Dec 4 - 21 C Showers - Global Cooling
      Dec 5 - 19 C Clearing shower - Ice Age
      Dec 6 - 22 C Mostly Sunny - Global Cooling
      Dec 7 - 27 C Sunny - Average
      Dec 8 - 30 C Late Shower -Global Warming

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    7. Rene Oldenburger

      Haven't got one

      In reply to Alice Kelly

      Coz I say so

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    8. Andrew Gilmour

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Rene Oldenburger

      Some live web-cams from Russia out of this site
      http://www.worldcam.eu/1272,6,19,webcam.html
      Murmansk (it is where Greenpeace guys spent some time)
      http://camera.mels.ru/flashbig.html
      Norilsk (God knows where it is)
      http://www.webcams.travel/webcam/1344235787-Weather-Norilsk-8-Noril'sk
      (minus 20 now)
      Tampere (Finland)
      http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Tampere/webcams/latest
      Just send some warmists over there :).

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    9. Rene Oldenburger

      Haven't got one

      In reply to Andrew Gilmour

      Totally agree Andrew and of course not using any fossil fuel to stay warm

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    10. Sean Arundell

      Uncommon Common Sense

      In reply to Rene Oldenburger

      Bummer ... here's hoping for an unexpected heat wave .. the weather bureaus always get it wrong anyway ... clearly BoMs are staffed by IPCC authors on their days off.

      LOL

      <wink>

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  11. Andrew Gilmour

    logged in via Facebook

    What I found interesting is that the Bureau of Meteorology web-site gives us a variety of options to play with the temperature data
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
    but it does not give us an option to request average temperature data.

    All sorts of data can be provided, i.e. monthly mean max, monthly mean minimum, max, min, etc. BUT monthly MEAN cannot be provided, although it is very simple to provide.

    It appears to me that the bureau just does not want people to see the data.

    Also…

    Read more
    1. Jane Rawson

      Editor, Energy & Environment at The Conversation

      In reply to Andrew Gilmour

      Daily temperature maps (and underlying grids of temperature) available for free download:

      http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

      Daily ACORN-SAT data available for free download:

      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/#tabs=ACORN%E2%80%90SAT

      Average temperature maps available for download:

      http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/temperature/index.jsp

      Maps for trends in temperature available for free download:

      http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/temperature/index.jsp

      Timeseries of trends in temperature - including area averaged mean temperatures for Australia, states and other regions - available for free download:

      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries

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    2. Andrew Gilmour

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Alice Kelly

      The most useful is the last one only where I see the temperature just goes up and down. So, the last year was cooler than the pervios one by 0.2 degrees. So what?

      Also, why the hell 1937 was hotter? Is this because the WWII started or something?

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  12. Jim Balaya

    Philanthropist

    I dont get the point of this article. It states that this Spring is 1.57 degree above the 1961-90 average. Why have they chosen that window? Why not 1961-2012 average? Perhaps 1961-1990 was a cool spring period. Is there any other period to compare it with? I think the headline is misleading. It should say something like "Australia has had its warmist spring compared to the 1961-1990 average"

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr.

      In reply to Jim Balaya

      Its conspiracy theories all the way down! And it is not the "warmist"(sic) spring, it is the warmest spring. You need to distinguish between ideology which comes from climate crank blogs and facts which come from the BOM.

      And it would not matter which period they chose so long as they always use the same baseline. You may wish to brush up on your arithmetic. It would still be the warmest spring on record irrespective of the baseline chosen. That is what the word "warmest" means.

      The 1961-1990 30 year period is defined by the WMO as a standard reference baseline for climate studies, not just for Australian BOM studies of spring. Here it is defined in the 2001 IPCC report for example.
      http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=144

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    2. Jane Rawson

      Editor, Energy & Environment at The Conversation

      In reply to Jim Balaya

      My pleasure. I should probably have asked Blair to clarify that in the article, so thanks for picking it up.

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