On Wednesday the BBC Trust released their report “Review of impartiality and accuracy of the BBC’s coverage of science”. The report has resulted in the BBC deciding to reflect scientific consensus about climate change in their coverage of the issue.
As a science communicator I applaud this decision. I understand and support the necessity to provide equal voice to political parties during an election campaign (indeed, I have done this, as an election occurred during my two years writing science for the ABC).
But science is not politics. And scientists are not politicians.
Much of the confusion about the climate change debate stems from a deep ignorance among the general population about how science works. And believe me this really is something “science” as an entity needs to address.
But this is where we get stuck.
It is far from accurate to refer to “science” as a single entity (as I just have). Many arguments that dispute the consensus about climate change being the result of man made activity talk about “scientists” as though they are “all in it together” and “supporting each other”.
This implies some grand conspiracy. But science is a competition, not a collusion. If anything they are all against each other.
No given person or research team has the whole picture of climate science. The range of scientific disciplines that work in this area is vast. Indeed there are few areas of science which do not potentially have something to contribute to the area.
But put a geologist and a geneticist in a room together and they can barely speak the same language. Far from some great conspiracy, the fact that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has come to a consensus about climate change is truly extraordinary.
The one uniting aspect of all scientists is that they use the same verification system for work – ensuring other researchers who are experts in that particular field have checked the work.
If work is poorly done, presents false results or does not add significantly to the body of knowledge it simply does not get published. The rejection rate of biomedical papers submitted to Nature for publication is more than 95%. This process is called peer review.
So why when reporting a scientific finding relating to climate change would we equally value the opinion of another person who may be an expert in economics (as they often seem to be), or a politician with no scientific background?
The BBC Trust report did not say the voice of scientific institutions should be taken at face value – far from it. It stated that the BBC had “an over-reliance on a narrow range of external information sources”.
The analysis of two years of reports found three quarters of the broadcast news items about scientific research related to stories where the institution was the source.
So the report is recommending that journalists do what they should always have done – investigate and verify.
By all means ask another expert’s point of view, determine whether the latest finding is in fact good science or what its implications are.
But we need to move away from the idea of “balance” between those who believe it is all a big conspiracy and those who have done some work and looked at the actual evidence.
The report concludes that in particular the BBC must take special care to continue efforts to ensure viewers are able to distinguish well-established fact from opinion on scientific issues, and to communicate this distinction clearly to the audience. In other words, to remember that the plural of anecdote is not data.
Australian media, are you listening?
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
Would be nice to see the ABC cover more peer reviewed science. These are a few recent papers they failed to report on:
Missing Hot Spot
Fu, Q., S. Manabe, and C. Johanson (2011), On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL048101, in press. (accepted 24 June 2011)
No Increase in Hurricane Frequency
Read moreThomas R Knutson, March 2011: Estimating annual numbers of Atlantic hurricanes missing from the HURDAT database (1878-1965) using…
Rockstar Philosopher
Rockstar Philosopher
ABC on the hot spot: http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2009/08/the_missing_hotspot_misses_the.php
Hurricane intensity: http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2004/09/27/1207816.htm
GBR: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/australiatalks/stories/2011/3243560.htm
I used google and put in abc.net.au followed by the headline of the thing you reckon they don't talk about (this is far from the most powerful way to search as well) and these all came up on the front page. I also noticed there was a website that kept coming up saying the ABC weren't reporting this.
I think part of your problem is that you're not paying enough attention to the ABC, preferring instead to get your information from dubious blogs.
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
None of the links you provide deal with the specific findings in any of the papers I listed above. All of these were published in the last 6 months. Quoting an an article from 2004 for Hurricane intensity is a desperate move! I think you'll find the science has moved on since that time.
How about attaching a real name next time so I know I'm not conversing with a spambot.
Rockstar Philosopher
Rockstar Philosopher
If I'm a spambot I guess I'm doing a pretty good chance at passing the Turing Test; interesting to know that you think someone's name identifies them as human, rather than their actions; it speaks a lot to your motivation as a human being. And all apologies to The Conversation aside, I know what they're doing with the real name thing, but I've been on the internet for nigh on 20 years now and I know that attaching real world information to discussions that involve high emotions is a bad idea, ask…
Read moreMarc Hendrickx
Geologist
If you had published in the peer reviewed press you would know that the term "accepted" means the paper has passed the journal's peer reviewed process and is essentially "in press". Thanks to this wonderful thing called the "internet" scientists no longer have to wait till the printing press to roll and papers that are accepted are commonly listed in a journals website. Such is the case with Fu et al. you can see this in the "papers in press" section of the journal Geophysical Research Letters here…
Read moreRockstar Philosopher
Rockstar Philosopher
No no, you really do get more detail in the paper than you do in the abstract. Are we just going to ignore all the stuff about previous data showing declines, declines in other areas, the variability of decline/increase and the fact that the reef has many, many pressures on it. If this paper said what you think it says, why doesn't the author reach that conclusion?
OK, the paper was accepted, but still only accepted a month ago and hasn't been replied to yet, I think your criticisms here are…
Read moreMarc Hendrickx
Geologist
Here's the abstract from the paper in question. It clearly looks at 4 decades of data. That's just over 1 climate cycle as defined by the IPCC.
Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones
has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large-scale climate mechanisms including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one-third of the overall calendar year global ACE.
Chris Weir
Analyst
It's one thing for the Beeb to investigate itself, but there is a widely held view among the 'hoi polloi' in the UK that on climate matters they are in fact a long way from showing 'balance' no matter how politely you define it.
Brett Twentythree
Typer
@Marc. Many of the papers you've listed have already been debunked. Some are just silly. For example, the medieval warming period was localised. This one's global.
John McLean
logged in via email @connexus.net.au
Take a look at the archive of www.co2science.org.
I quote from the current web page ....
"Was there a Medieval Warm Period? YES, according to data published by 994 individual scientists from 570 research institutions in 43 different countries ... and counting! This issue's Medieval Warm Period Record comes from Cattle Pond, Dongdao Island, Xisha Islands, China."
Steven R Clark
PhD Candidate and Casual Academic at University of South Australia
The "Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change" associated with the website (co2sceince.org) you refer to is an American lobby group. One that very deliberately refuses to disclose funding sources, which raises concerns about conflicts of interest for anyone with a scientific education.
Michael J. I. Brown
ARC Future Fellow and Senior Lecturer at Monash University
The topic of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and co2science's list of scientists has already been discussed on The Conversation at http://theconversation.edu.au/hear-ye-hear-ye-moncktons-medieval-warming-tale-is-climate-heresy-2326. Many of the scientists on co2science's list disagree with co2science's interpretation of their science, and this is discussed in The Conversation article.
co2science.org is not the most objective contributor to the debate. For example, statements promoting videos on…
Read moreMarc Hendrickx
Geologist
Brett, Can you provide reference's for you debunking claims, else its a lot of anonymous hot air.
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
Seriously Michael, if all you have is Mann (2009), you might as well be quoting from Al Gore's movie. The methodology used by Mann et al has been debunked many times. McShane And Wyner only the most recent incarnation.
There remains considerable uncertainty on the level of warming during the MWP, and whether is was a global event.
Rockstar Philosopher
Rockstar Philosopher
He's quoting Mann 2009, not the hockey stick paper. Not to mention that the issues with the hockey paper have been dealt with and the conclusion came out the same. Bringing this up is a real indicator of where your motivations lie. Many people disregarded Mann before it was 'debunked', then they were happy to jump on board the peer review train when people found the issues with it, but they got off at the reassessment station and kept that view, not bothering to keep up with the peer review process. The statisitical issues raised by McIntyre and McKitrick (2005) are dealt with in Wahl et al. (2006), Mann et al. (2007) and Huybers (2005).
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
You'll find that that by reading the other side of this story the truth is quite strange. Suggest you start with Climate Audit. http://climateaudit.org/
Why is raising the issue of ABC's non reporting of a debunked study an indication of "motives". I raise this as the article above calls for a review of ABC's policies. It is clear that ABC have an agenda and in regard to climate change it is to hide certain papers that do not concur with the government's alarmist message.
Michael J. I. Brown
ARC Future Fellow and Senior Lecturer at Monash University
The hockey stick controversy should perhaps be called the hockey sticks controversies as it has come up in different forms and variations over the past decade or so. For an introduction see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy and references therein.
Irrespective of the flaws (or lack thereof) in Mann's methods, what is interesting about the hockey stick is multiple groups using a variety of methods get broadly similar results to Mann. This can be seen in a report (and its executive summary) produced the National Research Council of the US National Academies, which is available from http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11676&page=R1
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
Good link Michael, one that contradicts much of what you said about Mann 2009.
Michael J. I. Brown
ARC Future Fellow and Senior Lecturer at Monash University
Since Marc Hendrix and myself have different views on this topic, readers may wish to look at the original report and executive summary (http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11676&page=R1), and then draw their own conclusions.
The point I was trying to make (implicitly perhaps) is there is only robust evidence for the MWP being a regional warming event.
The conclusions of Mann's papers from the late 1990s do receive some support and some criticism (the report dates from 2006).
One key…
Read moreMarc Hendrickx
Geologist
Here's the take home message from the NAS press release for the report...
'High Confidence' That Planet Is Warmest in 400 Years;
Less Confidence in Temperature Reconstructions Prior to 1600
http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=11676
Seems more work is required on this subject.
Rockstar Philosopher
Rockstar Philosopher
It's not really fair to say "go read this dog's breakfast of a website" without giving me some indication of what I'm looking at. There's no narrative to the site, it just drops me into some random email and the links that tell you what the site is about are broken. You want me to read a million brain farts to get the "other side of the story"? Are they not able to put together these concerns in a paper? Oh wait he did, and that has been responded to. Kudos to him for pointing out the errors…
Read morePawel Rakowski
hydrogeologist/groundwater modeller
Here's take home message for you Marc, sourced from the same website:
"The Research Council committee found the Mann team's conclusion that warming in the last few decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last thousand years to be plausible, but it had less confidence that the warming was unprecedented prior to 1600"
and later:
"None of the reconstructions indicates that temperatures were warmer during medieval times than during the past few decades, the committee added."
and finally:
"The committee pointed out that surface temperature reconstructions for periods before the Industrial Revolution -- when levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases were much lower -- are only one of multiple lines of evidence supporting the conclusion that current warming is occurring in response to human activities, and they are not the primary evidence."
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
Not really a strong endorsement is it.
But what's your real point Pawel?
Michael J. I. Brown
ARC Future Fellow and Senior Lecturer at Monash University
I thought one of Pawel's "points" is self evident. He is trying to provide a representative view of the National Academies report, including the caveats.
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
Perhaps Pawel can answer for himself.
John McLean
logged in via email @connexus.net.au
I've just finished reading Christopher Booker's riposte in the UK's Sunday Telegraph. He doesn't get all his facts right but enough to show that the muzzling of dissenting climate scientists has no merit at any time, least of all in a democracy that values freedom of speech.
Kingsley said above "This implies some grand conspiracy" but it's always facinated me that alarmists are far more likely to accuse the dissenters of conspricay than the dissenters use the word itself. What's my view? Simply…
Read moreNick Kermode
logged in via email @hotmail.com
"He doesnt get all his facts right"........Quite an understatement. A very brief history of the eminent Christopher Booker....
http://www.monbiot.com/2011/05/13/for-how-much-longer-can-this-go-on/
Brett Twentythree
Typer
@John. Thanks for that quote from a denialist website. I chose one country from their list to look up, Australia. There was a list of Australian Universities, but no papers referenced. It took me to a screen showing no studies in Australia, but some in New Zealand. Clicking on those shows only a very vague description, with no conclusions mentioned and the ONLY papers referenced are by Mann and Bradley, and Mann and Jones, all of which directly contradict their claims! Am I missing something here? I must be, surely.
Nick Kermode
logged in via email @hotmail.com
Hey Brett,
Prof. Abrahams tried a bit of that too....
http://theconversation.edu.au/hear-ye-hear-ye-moncktons-medieval-warming-tale-is-climate-heresy-2326
Marc Hendrickx
Geologist
Some pieces from The Australian showing how our own equivalent to the BBC deal with Climate Change reporting. Perhaps The Con. can republish them here. As the author I have no objection.
Here's a preview...Aunty is mistaken but not malicious
Aunty's main problem is not opinion sites such as The Drum that has given Hamilton a megaphone, and also posted a range of views from climate experts and non-experts alike, including me. The problem is the ABC's news and science reporting that continues to…
Read moreNick Kermode
logged in via email @hotmail.com
I think The Conversations charter disqualifies them from re-printing the bulk of The Australian content.
http://theconversation.edu.au/our_charter
Michael J. I. Brown
ARC Future Fellow and Senior Lecturer at Monash University
There has already been one article in The Conversation that discusses how the media covers climate science;
http://theconversation.edu.au/the-false-the-confused-and-the-mendacious-how-the-media-gets-it-wrong-on-climate-change-1558
The Australian media can learn more from the BBC report than Marc Hendrickx's piece on the ABC. The report identified three key areas where the BBC could improve its coverage, and these may well apply to many Australian media organisations.
Below are the recommendations…
Read moreMarc Hendrickx
Geologist
Here's another article from The Oz on ABC's dismal treatment of anyone daring to go against the party line...
Bias at the national broadcaster is as easy as ABC
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bias-at-the-netional-broadcaster-is-as-easy-as-abc/story-fn59niix-1226009060141
This is what happens when activists replace journalists. The Australian's coverage on the other hand has been much more balanced than the ABCs.
Michael J. I. Brown
ARC Future Fellow and Senior Lecturer at Monash University
Curiously, Marc Hendrickx chose not to comment on the principal recommendations of the report on BBC science coverage.