tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/2018-us-midterm-elections-46034/articles2018 US midterm elections – La Conversation2022-08-10T12:18:45Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1875792022-08-10T12:18:45Z2022-08-10T12:18:45ZDon’t be too quick to blame social media for America’s polarization – cable news has a bigger effect, study finds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478366/original/file-20220809-16320-by0k6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C4000%2C2644&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden and Donald Trump supporters, like these two, are more likely to be polarized by TV news than online echo chambers.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenInaugurationTwoWorlds/7e1e25cd3f574ef98153395f38d5672b/photo">AP Photo/Allen G. Breed</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The past two election cycles have seen an <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv8xnhtd">explosion of attention given</a> to “echo chambers,” or communities where a narrow set of views makes people less likely to challenge their own opinions. Much of this concern has focused on the rise of social media, which has <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/671987">radically transformed the information ecosystem</a>.</p>
<p>However, when scientists investigated social media echo chambers, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2018.1428656">they found surprisingly little evidence</a> of them on a large scale – or at least none on a scale large enough to warrant the growing concerns. And yet, selective exposure to news <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2010.01497.x">does increase polarization</a>. This suggested that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F2158244019832705">these studies</a> missed part of the picture of Americans’ news consumption patterns. Crucially, they did not factor in a major component of the average American’s experience of news: television.</p>
<p>To fill in this gap, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Zb68N-kAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">I</a> and a group of researchers from <a href="https://datascience.stanford.edu/people/daniel-muise">Stanford University</a>, the <a href="https://pikprofessors.upenn.edu/meet-the-professors/duncan-watts">University of Pennsylvania</a> and <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/people/davidmr/">Microsoft Research</a> tracked the TV news consumption habits of tens of thousands of American adults each month from 2016 through 2019. We discovered <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn0083">four aspects of news consumption</a> that, when taken together, paint an unsettling picture of the TV news ecosystem.</p>
<h2>TV trumps online</h2>
<p>We first measured just how politically siloed American news consumers really are across TV and the web. Averaging over the four years of our observations, we found that roughly 17% of Americans are politically polarized – 8.7% to the left and 8.4% to the right – based on their TV news consumption. That’s three to four times higher than the average percentage of Americans polarized by online news.</p>
<p>Moreover, the percentage of Americans polarized via TV ranged as high as 23% at its peak in November 2016, the month in which Donald Trump was elected president. A second spike occurred in the months leading into December 2018, following the “blue wave” midterm elections in which a <a href="https://politicalsciencenow.com/the-blue-wave-assessing-political-advertising-trends-and-democratic-advantages-in-2018/">record number of Democratic campaign ads</a> were aired on TV. The timing of these two spikes suggests a clear connection between content choices and events in the political arena.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yN_Mp9ZsVXA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The 2018 midterm elections saw campaign ads reach new levels of partisanship.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Staying in TV echo chambers</h2>
<p>Besides being more politically siloed on average, our research found that TV news consumers are much more likely than web consumers to maintain the same partisan news diets over time: after six months, left-leaning TV audiences are 10 times more likely to remain segregated than left-leaning online audiences, and right-leaning audiences are 4.5 times more likely than their online counterparts.</p>
<p>While these figures may seem intimidating, it is important to keep in mind that even among TV viewers, about 70% of right-leaning viewers and about 80% of left-leaning viewers do switch their news diets within six months. To the extent that long-lasting echo chambers do exist, then, they include only about 4% of the population.</p>
<h2>Narrow TV diets</h2>
<p>Partisan segregation among TV audiences goes even further than left- and right-leaning sources, we found. We identified seven broad buckets of TV news sources, then used these archetypes to determine what a typical unvaried TV news diet really looks like.</p>
<p>We found that, compared to online audiences, partisan TV news consumers tend not to stray too far from their narrow sets of preferred news sources. For example, most Americans who consume mostly MSNBC rarely consume news from any other source besides CNN. Similarly, most Americans who consume mostly Fox News Channel do not venture beyond that network at all. This finding contrasts with data from online news consumers, who still receive sizable amounts of news from outside their main archetype.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One man interviews another on the set of the television program" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478369/original/file-20220809-14-pzgjbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People who get their news from MSNBC rarely stray beyond MSNBC and CNN for their news consumption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:RichardLuiOnSetMSNBC.jpg">Mikeblog/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Distilling partisanship</h2>
<p>Finally, we found an imbalance between partisan TV news channels and the broader TV news environment. Our observations revealed that Americans are turning away from national TV news generally in substantial numbers – and crucially, this exodus is more from centrist news buckets than from left- or right-leaning ones. Within the remaining TV news audience, we found movement from broadcast news to cable news, trending toward MSNBC and Fox News.</p>
<p>Together, these trends reveal a counterintuitive finding: Although the overall TV news audience is shrinking, the partisan TV news audience is growing. This means that the audience as a whole is in the process of being “distilled” – remaining TV viewers are growing increasingly partisan, and the partisan proportion of TV news consumers is on the rise.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Exposure to opposing views is <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/12/09/political-polarization-and-its-echo-chambers-surprising-new-cross-disciplinary">critical for functional democratic processes</a>. It allows for self-reflection and <a href="https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/10127">tempers hostility toward political outgroups</a>, whereas only interacting with similar views in political echo chambers makes people more entrenched in their own opinions. If echo chambers truly are as widespread as <a href="https://rcommunicationr.org/index.php/rcr/article/view/94">recent attention</a> has made them out to be, it can have major consequences for the health of democracy.</p>
<p>Our findings suggest that television – not the web – is the top driver of partisan audience segregation among Americans. It is important to note that the vast majority of Americans still consume relatively balanced news diets. </p>
<p>However, given that the partisan TV news audience alone <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay3539">consumes more minutes of news than the entire online news audience</a>, it may be worth devoting more attention to this huge and increasingly politicized part of the information ecosystem.</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/social-media-and-society-125586" target="_blank"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479539/original/file-20220817-20-g5jxhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=144&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="100%"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Homa Hosseinmardi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Studies of online echo chambers don’t paint the full picture of Americans’ political segregation. New research shows that the problem is more Fox News Channel and MSNBC than Facebook and Twitter.Homa Hosseinmardi, Associate Research Scientist in Computational Social Science, University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1654162021-08-03T18:27:26Z2021-08-03T18:27:26ZDoes a Trump endorsement make a difference? Yes, but not the way a candidate hopes it will<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414325/original/file-20210803-15-3nm9mg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C16%2C3764%2C2594&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Dean Heller, right, and President Donald Trump, who endorsed him, at a rally on Sept. 20, 2018, in Las Vegas. Heller lost the reelection.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-looks-on-as-u-s-sen-dean-heller-news-photo/1037056040?adppopup=true">Ethan Miller/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former President Donald Trump may see himself as a winner, but the candidates he endorses don’t always win. In fact, his endorsement often helps the opponents of his candidates.</p>
<p>That was true in the 2018 midterm elections, and a similar effect could happen in the upcoming 2022 midterms. One early indication: In late July, Republican and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jake-ellzey-texas-congress-runoff-6th-district-susan-wright/">Trump endorsee Susan Wright lost to fellow Republican Jake Ellzey</a> in the special election runoff in Texas’ 6th Congressional District. </p>
<p>The failure of Trump’s endorsement to propel Wright to victory has raised questions among political observers about <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/07/28/donald-trumps-endorsement-record-takes-a-hit-with-jake-ellzeys-win-over-susan-wright/">the sway the former president has in GOP politics</a>. The loss led to <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-team-blames-conservative-failed-endorsment-17aa2dd1-b4be-4ca7-beeb-c74d1d472a09.html">Trump’s inner circle</a> casting about for whom to blame.</p>
<p>While some Trump allies were quick to <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-team-blames-conservative-failed-endorsment-17aa2dd1-b4be-4ca7-beeb-c74d1d472a09.html">point fingers at internal party divisions</a> and Republican infighting, <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-team-blames-conservative-failed-endorsment-17aa2dd1-b4be-4ca7-beeb-c74d1d472a09.html">Trump himself blamed Democratic voters</a> for Susan Wright’s loss. </p>
<p>Trump’s endorsement may have mobilized Democrats and independents, who ultimately voted for <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/29/jake-ellzey-donald-trump-texas-6-congressional-seat/">Wright’s GOP opponent, Jason Ellzey</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12284">Our work</a>, and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/711407">work of other political scientists</a>, suggests that endorsement backlash frequently occurs in contemporary politics. As political scientists, we observed the prolific tweeting of President Trump and wanted to know whether his endorsements of congressional candidates affected their campaigns and the campaigns of their opponents. </p>
<p>We found that during the 2018 midterm elections, President Trump’s endorsements helped Republicans he endorsed raise money, but also helped their Democratic opponents raise money.</p>
<p>Ultimately Trump’s endorsement was more detrimental than helpful. It led to an increased vote share going to the Democratic opponent of the candidate Trump endorsed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi at a lectern in front of American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democrat Nancy Pelosi became Speaker of the House in 2018 when the GOP, including Trump-endorsed candidates, lost control of the House in the midterm elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-minority-leader-nancy-pelosi-holds-a-news-conference-news-photo/1058677340?adppopup=true">Zach Gibson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘backlash effect’</h2>
<p>Trump endorsed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12284">80 different congressional candidates</a> in the 2018 midterm elections. He tweeted 134 endorsements to 45 congressional candidates and endorsed another 35 congressional candidates at 47 in-person campaign events. </p>
<p>Our research looked at campaign fundraising, turnout and vote share for candidates whom Trump endorsed in the 2018 midterm elections as well as their opponents. </p>
<p>While presidents often campaign for and support candidates for the House and Senate in midterm elections, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3162/036298007782398468">most of that previous activity occurred in person and at the local level</a> rather than on Twitter or some other national platform. Previous presidents also haven’t been nearly as generous in their endorsements as Trump. </p>
<p>President Barack Obama, for instance, endorsed 16 congressional candidates in 2010 and eight candidates in 2014. All those endorsements were given at local events rather than on social media. While <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump">Trump has already endorsed 22 candidates leading up to the 2022 election</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Joe_Biden">President Joe Biden has endorsed only two</a>. </p>
<p>Trump endorsements did affect the races: Our research found that Trump-endorsed candidates raised more money from more donors immediately following the president’s endorsement.</p>
<p>But an endorsement from President Trump also benefited the endorsed candidate’s Democratic opponent. Democrats took advantage of Trump’s unpopularity among Democrats and independents and <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/15/donald-trump-endorses-dallas-congressman-pete-sessions-re-election/">made sure that those voters also knew about the endorsement</a>. And while endorsed candidates raised more money, their opponents also raised more money from more donors immediately following the president’s endorsement. </p>
<p>Opponents of Trump-endorsed candidates also benefited from increased mobilization at the polls. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A newspaper headline that reads 'In a major upset against a candidate backed by Donald Trump, Jake Ellzey wins runoff for Fort Worth-area congressional seat.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Texas Tribune headline on a story about Jake Ellzey’s runoff victory over a Trump-backed candidate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/27/susan-wright-jake-ellzey-texas-6-congressional-seat/">Screenshot, Texas Tribune</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Races with a presidential endorsement had higher turnout than comparable races without an endorsement – but that didn’t help the endorsed candidate. Instead, Trump’s 2018 endorsements decreased the endorsed candidate’s vote share by almost 2.5 percentage points compared with candidates in similar districts who did not receive Trump’s endorsement. </p>
<p>Without Trump’s endorsement, Republicans likely would have won control of <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_7th_Congressional_District">Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District in 2018</a> rather than having to wait until 2020 for <a href="https://www.startribune.com/michelle-fischbach-ousts-collin-peterson-in-minnesota-s-seventh-district/572948862/">Republican Michelle Fischbach to defeat incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson</a>. Likewise, without <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/10/31/macarthur-kim-debate-trump-policies-but-steer-clear-of-trump-676331">Trump’s endorsement of New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur in 2018</a>, our estimates suggest he would have won reelection by about 1.2 percentage points <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-house-district-3">rather than losing by 1.3 percentage points</a>. </p>
<p>Ultimately, we found that Trump’s endorsements cost Republicans 16 seats – exactly 20% of the 80 candidates he endorsed. That represented 12 in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate. </p>
<h2>Not just Trump</h2>
<p>Other research has also shown that the engagement of national political figures at the local level appears to mobilize supporters and opponents alike. </p>
<p>Visits from presidential and vice presidential candidates in 2016 increased local donations both to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/18/trump-is-going-back-holding-rallies-he-might-be-helping-biden/">candidates who were visited and their opponents</a>. Notably, Trump campaign rallies in 2016 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/711407">increased donations from the local area</a> to Hillary Clinton’s campaign more than to his own. </p>
<p>These findings suggest that high-profile interventions from divisive political figures ultimately may be unhelpful or, worse, damaging in the general election to the endorsed candidates. While such an endorsement does provide some benefits to the endorsed candidate, it also generates a backlash effect that can ultimately benefit an opponent. </p>
<p>Early indications in Trump endorsements for 2022 suggest they may be even more detrimental than in 2018. In addition to the failure of Trump’s endorsement to carry his preferred candidate to office in Texas’s 6th Congressional District recently, opponents <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1421201487246643203?s=20">have outspent Trump-endorsed candidates this cycle </a>. </p>
<p>Given both parties’ anticipation of a hotly contested election in 2022, with control of both the House and Senate likely to be up for grabs, party leaders and candidates may want to carefully evaluate whether they need or want the help of both President Biden and former President Trump on the campaign trail. These endorsements may ultimately prompt more backlash than support.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand what’s going on in Washington.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Candidates: Be careful what you wish for.Hans J.G. Hassell, Associate Professor of Political Science, Florida State UniversityAndrew Ballard, Assistant Professor, Government, American UniversityMichael Heseltine, PhD. Candidate, Political Science, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1173072019-06-27T19:56:45Z2019-06-27T19:56:45ZAfter Supreme Court decision, gerrymandering fix is up to voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281655/original/file-20190627-76738-1newx1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Supreme Court is empty days before the justices vote to on the U.S. gerrymandering case.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Supreme-Court/8045bf3b4aa341ffbd693730fe6a043c/25/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/18-422_9ol1.pdf">5-4 decision</a> the Supreme Court has ruled that partisan gerrymandering is not unconstitutional. </p>
<p>The majority ruled that gerrymandering is outside the scope and power of the federal courts to adjudicate. The issue is a political one, according to the court, not a legal one. </p>
<p>“Excessive partisanship in districting leads to results that reasonably seem unjust,” wrote Chief Justice John Roberts in the majority decision. “But the fact that such gerrymandering is incompatible with democratic principles does not mean that the solution lies with the federal judiciary.”</p>
<p>So for now, partisan gerrymandering, in which politicians get to choose their voters rather than voters choose their representatives, will remain a fact of American political life. </p>
<p>What is the background to this decision? And what does the decision mean for democracy in the U.S.? </p>
<h2>Cracking and packing</h2>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State-by-state_redistricting_procedures">State legislatures have the constitutional responsibility</a> to draw up the boundaries of congressional seats after the results of the census, which is conducted every 10 years. </p>
<p>In many states, if one party is in the majority at that time, they can use their power to manipulate the boundaries to their advantage. That’s called <a href="http://www.redistrictinggame.org/glossary.php">partisan gerrymandering</a>, and it involves what’s referred to as “<a href="http://www.redistrictinggame.org/learnaboutmission2.php">cracking and packing</a>.” </p>
<p>Cracking spreads opposition voters thinly across many districts to dilute their power. Packing concentrates opposition voters in fewer districts to reduce the number of seats they can win.</p>
<p>Just one example: <a href="https://www.apnews.com/6e3823d62eb44681aa3231f4cbf2766a">In 2012, Republicans in Ohio</a> drew up congressional boundaries that packed most Democratic voters into just four of the 16 congressional districts. The 9th District was referred to as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ohio-strikes-blow-against-gerrymandering-48748">“snake on the lake”</a> as it slithered along the edge of Lake Erie from Cleveland to Toledo to pack in as many Democratic voters as possible. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281660/original/file-20190627-76743-o7ypcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The gerrymandered 9th Ohio U.S. Congressional District, known as ‘the snake on the lake.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ohio_US_Congressional_District_9_(since_2013).tif#/media/File:Ohio_US_Congressional_District_9_(since_2013).tif">US Department of the Interior via Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It worked. <a href="https://expo.cleveland.com/news/erry-2018/11/0f32e762411182/ohio-democrats-outpolled-repub.html">In the 2018 election</a>, Ohio Republicans won just 52% of the votes but picked up 12 of 16 of the congressional seats. </p>
<p>I have researched the <a href="https://theconversation.com/campaign-season-is-moving-into-high-gear-your-vote-may-not-count-as-much-as-you-think-101764">U.S. voting system</a>, analyzed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21622671.2013.875938">Supreme Court rulings</a> and shown why <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-gerrymandering-is-getting-worse-105182">gerrymandering is now more prevalent</a> since the 1990s. Sophisticated computer programs and ever more detailed information on voters’ location and preferences now allow politicians to crack and pack with surgical precision. </p>
<p>In 2004, the Supreme Court effectively sanctioned gerrymandering. In <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2003/02-1580">Vieth v. Jubelirer</a>, the court ruled 5-4 not to intervene in a case brought by Democrats in Pennsylvania over a redistricting plan they claimed was unconstitutionally gerrymandered. </p>
<p>After the ruling, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/gerrymandering-in-america/C2A9A40879A353AC7484B49834CB54E4">partisan gerrymandering increased</a>, especially in the redistricting round after the 2010 census. </p>
<p>In 2017, and again in 2018, the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/18/supreme-partisan-gerrymandering-cases-650879">passed up opportunities</a> to decide upon the constitutional legality of gerrymandering by effectively punting on the cases.</p>
<p>In other cases, the court actively intervened. </p>
<p>Republican-controlled Shelby County, Alabama filed a case against the constitutionality of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The act had protected minority voters’ rights in the South from being diluted by gerrymandering and other methods. In the 2013 case <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96">Shelby v. Holder</a>, the court overturned key elements of the act, in a 5-4 ruling. The ruling encouraged partisan gerrymandering in the states – Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Virginia – previously under federal scrutiny for their legacy of discriminatory voting practices. </p>
<h2>Mounting legal challenges</h2>
<p>There have been other legal challenges to partisan gerrymandering.</p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Virginia_after_the_2010_census">In Virginia</a> a Republican map drawn up in 2011 that packed many African American voters into just 11 of the state’s 100 House of Delegates districts was challenged. A federal judge saw racial gerrymandering at work and ordered a new map. A Republican challenge to that ruling came before the Supreme Court. The Republican challenge was dismissed on <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/18-281_6j37.pdf">June 17, 2019</a>. </p>
<p>The court’s decision in the Virginia case was not about whether the gerrymandering was unconstitutional. Instead, a 5-4 majority of the court ruled that the Virginia Republicans had no legal standing to mount the appeal when the state senate and the state attorney general had decided against appealing. The new map stood.</p>
<p>In Ohio, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/03/us/politics/ohio-gerrymander-ruling.html">a three-judge federal panel ruled</a> that the Republicans attempted to cement a Republican majority of congressional seats when they drew up new districts. The state legislature was ordered by the court to draw a new map for the 2020 election.</p>
<p>And in Michigan <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/michigan-gerrymandering-case/588082/">a panel of federal judges ruled</a> that many of the state’s legislature districts were unconstitutional, drawn up to ensure a partisan advantage. No more snake on the lake.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/24/supreme-court-blocks-gerrymandering-michigan-ohio-1344369">set aside</a> these last two lower court rulings on May 24, 2019 in preparation for this recent decision. The two cases are now sent back to lower courts for dismissal. The snake on the lake lives on for another election cycle. </p>
<h2>Maryland and North Carolina</h2>
<p>Gerrymandering is especially rampant in Maryland and North Carolina. In both states <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-hear-gerrymandering-cases-against-democrats-republicans-n986716">powerful politicians admitted</a> that their plan was to solidify their party’s control.</p>
<p>Republicans in North Carolina <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-north-carolina-gerrymander-map-supreme-court/">drew a map</a> in 2016 to ensure control of 10 of the state’s 13 congressional districts. Democratic voters were overwhelmingly packed into three districts with the remainder cracked across the remaining 10. </p>
<p>Democrats in Maryland <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/federal-judges-throw-out-marylands-congressional-voting-map/2018/11/07/91a06834-e2be-11e8-b759-3d88a5ce9e19_story.html">drew a map</a> with gyrating boundaries in order to cement their 7-1 advantage in congressional seats. </p>
<p>When lower federal courts struck down these gerrymandered congressional district maps, politicians in both states appealed to the <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-supreme-court-gerrymandering-20190104-story.html">Supreme Court</a>. </p>
<p>Arguments were heard on these cases in March 2019. </p>
<p>From the questioning, it appeared that the liberal justices – Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan and Sotomayor – would <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2018/18-422_5hd5.pdf">rule against gerrymandering</a> and the more conservative justices – Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Gorsuch and Kavanaugh – were <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2018/18-726_9olb.pdf">against the court getting involved</a>. </p>
<p>The votes predictably split along the ideological divide. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/18-422_9ol1.pdf">majority opinion</a>, combining the Maryland and North Carolina cases into one decision, the court’s conservative majority noted that existing measures of gerrymandering do not provide precise and judicially discernible standards. The opinion was authored by Chief Justice Roberts, who has long held the opinion that it is impossible <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/10/12/chief-justice-john-roberts-calls-data-gerrymandering-sociological-gobbledygook">to measure</a>, let alone overcome, partisan gerrymandering.</p>
<p>Responding for the liberal minority, Justice Kagan read her dissent in open court – a sign of her intense disagreement with what she saw as the court’s unwillingness to uphold fair and free elections. She wrote that the decision “debased and dishonored our democracy.”</p>
<h2>Now what?</h2>
<p>Partisan gerrymandering will continue. But so will resistance against it, I believe. </p>
<p>There is a way for states to avoid gerrymandering. Newly formed, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Independent_redistricting_commissions">nonpartisan redistricting commissions</a>, working outside the influence of the legislature to draw legislative district lines, already exist in <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Alaska">Alaska</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Arizona">Arizona</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_California">California</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Colorado">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Idaho">Idaho</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Michigan">Michigan</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Montana">Montana</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Washington">Washington</a>. </p>
<p>These commissions resulted from citizen initiatives to reform the process. But most states east of the Mississippi, for instance, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/States_with_initiative_or_referendum">do not have a ballot initiative</a> process that would allow voters to initiate reform.</p>
<p>Gerrymandering has a pernicious impact on the electoral system and on the wider democratic process. It encourages long-term incumbency and a consequent polarization of political discourse. </p>
<p>But now the Supreme Court has made it clear that the solution does not lie with federal judges. </p>
<p>It is up to the voters. </p>
<p><em>Correction: This article has been updated to correct the number of Congressional seats Republicans won in the 2018 election in Ohio.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court has issued what’s likely to be its final word on partisan gerrymandering, saying it’s a political issue, not a legal one. That means reform lies in the hands of voters.John Rennie Short, Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1110322019-02-14T11:48:23Z2019-02-14T11:48:23ZHow energy efficiency delivers green dividends in red and blue states<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258840/original/file-20190213-181597-1edqiet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Installing smart meters saves energy and creates jobs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Growing-Grid-Costs/3766a95b733b4ef8b6c5cf5e59539fd7/2/0">AP Photo/Gerry Broome</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=5729033-Green-New-Deal-FINAL">Green New Deal</a>, a bundle of proposed policies that would combat climate change, create green jobs and address economic inequities, is eliciting the usual <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/green-new-deal-details-emerge-as-ocasio-cortez-preps-big-reveal">partisan debate</a> over what to do about global warming.</p>
<p>But one humble and noncontroversial way to reduce carbon pollution has been gathering steam in red and blue states alike: <a href="https://www.energy.gov/science-innovation/energy-efficiency">energy efficiency</a>. Policies like those that encourage the retrofitting of <a href="https://www.traviscountytx.gov/health-human-services/weatherization/weatherization">low-income homes in Texas with insulation</a> and provide cash incentives for new homes in Vermont that <a href="https://aceee.org/research-report/u1901">generate as much power as they consume</a> are reducing carbon emissions and pollution while creating jobs. Some <a href="https://www.e2.org/eejobsinamerica/">2.25 million people</a> are working in the swiftly growing sector.</p>
<p>Although it gets much less attention than other <a href="https://www.altenergymag.com/article/2019/01/2019-renewable-energy-and-power-industry-outlook/30066">clean-energy industries</a>, like wind and solar power and electric vehicles, efficiency is booming. The electricity these improvements save <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_10_07.html">grew by 50 percent between 2013 and 2017</a>. In 2017, the U.S. conserved the equivalent of <a href="http://energyatlas.iea.org/#!/tellmap/-1118783123">all the energy Denmark produced</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=z55eSK8AAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of energy and environmental policy</a>, who spent a decade working for the Massachusetts state government, I believe that because of its environmental benefits and job growth potential, energy efficiency will be the bedrock of both national and state energy policy, regardless of which party controls statehouses, Congress or the White House.</p>
<p>Why? Because, the policies that support energy efficiency expansion are those that can be embraced by conservatives and progressives alike, whether they are cast as buttressing a “green new deal,” “energy independence” or “workforce development” strategies. </p>
<h2>Counting jobs</h2>
<p>Energy efficiency helps keep your beer cold, workspaces well-lit and clothes clean for a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/understanding-cost-effectiveness-energy-efficiency-programs">fraction what it would cost</a> to build a new power plants of any kind. It also tends to be uncontroversial because it does not require the construction of big new industrial infrastructure.</p>
<p>Although you might associate the concept with setting thermostats uncomfortably low or mindfully turning off lights in empty rooms, current energy efficiency improvements generally don’t force anyone to change their habits. While reducing pollution and <a href="https://webstore.iea.org/capturing-the-multiple-benefits-of-energy-efficiency">sparking innovation and entrepreneurship</a>, they <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-consumers-are-equal-in-terms-of-what-they-save-by-using-efficient-appliances-107706">save money for customers and businesses</a>, and are <a href="https://aceee.org/topics/low-income-programs">especially beneficial</a> for low-income households, whose energy costs take up a large portion of their budget. </p>
<p>Until recently, it has been hard to directly track energy efficiency job growth, though. The federal government and most states did not even try until 2017, when the Energy Department began to release <a href="https://www.usenergyjobs.org/">national energy jobs report</a>. In addition, E2 and E4TheFuture, two nonpartisan and nonprofit groups that advocate for policies that are good for the environment and the business world, create <a href="https://www.e2.org/eejobsinamerica/">state-by-state assessments</a>. </p>
<p>With 2.25 million workers, the sector now employs twice as many as all fossil fuel sectors combined, according to the federal energy jobs report. And energy efficiency accounted for half of all energy job growth in 2017, according to E2’s report on <a href="https://www.e2.org/eejobsinamerica/">energy efficiency jobs</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="KPmhD" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KPmhD/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Virtually all energy efficiency jobs are local by definition, although manufacturing of energy efficiency products can happen overseas. Thus, these jobs are generally immune to outsourcing since they have to be done on-site. Yet that is not necessarily true for all energy efficiency employers.</p>
<p>An estimated <a href="https://www.e2.org/eejobsinamerica">350,000 businesses</a>, ranging from local startups to large multinationals, conduct energy audits and make efficiency upgrades in homes and commercial and industrial buildings. They manufacture and install high efficiency systems, windows, LED lighting and insulation, upgrade and repair HVAC and water heating equipment, code operations software, and design and construct high-performance buildings.</p>
<h2>State leadership</h2>
<p>While the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pull-of-energy-markets-and-legal-challenges-will-blunt-plans-to-roll-back-epa-carbon-rules-85561">Trump administration</a> continues to dismantle policies that advance clean energy, <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-trump-retreats-states-are-stepping-up-on-climate-action">many states</a> are stepping up their efforts to reduce carbon emissions.</p>
<p>I consider Massachusetts a good example. It has made energy efficiency a high priority since 2008, when a law called the <a href="https://malegislature.gov/Laws/SessionLaws/Acts/2008/Chapter169">Green Communities Act</a> transformed rules and introduced energy efficiency incentives.</p>
<p>In the 10 years since its enactment, annual <a href="https://www.analysisgroup.com/Insights/publishing/the-impacts-of-the-green-communities-act-on-the-massachusetts-economy--a-review-of-the-first-six-years-of-the-act-s-implementation/">investments by utility companies in statewide energy efficiency</a> programs rose from about $125 million to more than $700 million. That investment provided a nearly 4.5-to-1 return in terms of energy savings that created more than <a href="https://www.e2.org/eejobsinamerica/">84,000 new jobs</a>.</p>
<p>The climate change benefits were significant too. By reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 1.8 million metric tons over the most recent three-year reporting period, the program achieved the equivalent of taking <a href="http://ma-eeac.org/results-reporting/annual-reports/">390,000 cars off of Massachusetts roads</a>.</p>
<p>Experts like the energy analyst <a href="https://energyinnovation.org/team-member/hal-harvey/">Hal Harvey</a> and the Tufts University scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BiKL7ikAAAAJ&hl=en">Gilbert Metcalf</a> have documented these kinds of <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/designing-climate-solutions">cost savings and emissions benefits</a> for years, as have <a href="https://webstore.iea.org/market-report-series-energy-efficiency-2018-chinese-abridged">government authorities and utilities</a>.</p>
<h2>Nonpartisan patterns</h2>
<p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/2167/energy.aspx">Energy efficiency is popular</a> in states led by Republicans and Democrats alike.</p>
<p>Efforts by the Democratic strongholds known as “blue states” to <a href="https://aceee.org/state-policy/scorecard">encourage energy efficiency</a> have paid off for states like California, New York and Oregon. All three are among the 10 best in terms of <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/interactive-how-much-carbon-do-countries-emit">carbon dioxide emissions per capita</a>, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/state/rankings/?sid=US#/series/225">energy expenditures per capita</a> and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.php?incfile=/state/seds/sep_sum/html/rank_use_capita.html&sid=US">energy use per capita</a>. </p>
<p>But even in Republican-led “<a href="https://www.e2.org/eejobsinamerica">red states</a>,” such as Texas, South Carolina, Missouri and Utah, energy efficiency is beginning to take off. For example energy efficiency construction jobs make up between 10-24 percent of all construction jobs in those states. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258767/original/file-20190213-181615-1j3nn40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most of the states deemed to be doing the most in terms of energy efficiency are Democratic strongholds like top-ranked Massachusetts, California and Rhode Island. But some of the top 20, such as Michigan, Minnesota and Colorado are not.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://aceee.org/state-policy/scorecard">American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While energy efficiency is on the rise across the nation, there are still critiques of the policies encouraging these efforts. Such arguments center around <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-energy-lightbulbs/trump-administration-proposes-exempting-some-light-bulbs-from-green-standards-idUSKCN1PV2QP">regulatory overreach</a>, the upfront costs of such programs and the potential loss of revenue for utilities. Amid concerns about the quality of some technologies, such as <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/home/how-to/a3474/4276104/">compact fluorescent lightbulbs</a>, the Trump administration is trying to roll back a mandate to <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/428832-trump-admin-seeks-to-roll-back-light-bulb-efficiency-rule">make all lighting more energy-efficient</a>.</p>
<p>But there are many examples of where energy efficiency policies have succeeded in tandem with <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/designing-climate-solutions">technological innovations</a>.</p>
<p>Near-term federal action on the Green New Deal’s stated rationale, “<a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senator-markey-and-rep-ocasio-cortez-introduce-green-new-deal-resolution">addressing the existential challenge of climate change</a>,” currently appears <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/07/green-new-deal-224928">highly unlikely</a> given the lack of support from Senate Republicans and the White House.</p>
<p>However, like some observers, I suspect that <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/analyst-roundtable-breaking-down-the-green-new-deal-part-one#gs.HnydJnCe">Congress may consider</a> less comprehensive energy legislation before long. Because there is much to gain on both sides of the aisle by lowering constituents’ utility bills and growing jobs in a sector that has demonstrated potential, energy efficiency could be at the center of new energy politics and policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cash is a member of the board of E4TheFuture, an organization that funds clean energy research and projects, and published one of the reports cited in this article.</span></em></p>It’s often more effective, cheaper and less controversial than other efforts to confront climate change.David Cash, Dean, John W. McCormack Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1079332019-01-25T11:54:56Z2019-01-25T11:54:56Z3 ways to make your voice heard besides protesting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255208/original/file-20190123-135157-1n68xzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Destiny Watford and other Baltimore youth leaders derailed plans to build a big incinerator in their neighborhood.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.goldmanprize.org/recipient/destiny-watford/">The Goldman Environmental Prize</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More Americans are trying to make their voices heard these days. </p>
<p>Approximately one in five Americans <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/04/06/National-Politics/Polling/release_516.xml">participated in a protest or rally between early 2016 and early 2018</a>, according to a Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation poll. A similar proportion reported they expected to become more involved in political causes in the next year. </p>
<p>Similarly, the number of women running for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/09/25/651085628/is-the-record-number-of-women-candidates-a-2018-blip-or-a-lasting-trend">state and federal offices soared</a> during the 2018 midterm elections. The <a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/07/11/public-attitudes-toward-political-engagement-on-social-media/">ease of using social media</a> appears to be ramping up virtual protesting too.</p>
<p>In addition to making your objections heard in the streets or with tweets, there are many other ways you can influence public policies.</p>
<p>In our book “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Citizen-Participation-in-the-Age-of-Contracting-When-Service-Delivery/Amirkhanyan-Lambright/p/book/9781138505391">Citizen Participation in the Age of Contracting</a>,” <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=07GtNFsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">we identify several things</a> anyone can do to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-Gnt52oAAAAJ&hl=en">make their community a better place</a>. </p>
<h2>1. Talk to your leaders</h2>
<p>One approach is telling government officials what you think about public policies and services. Ordinary people can do this many different ways.</p>
<p>You can write letters to your local paper, serve on task forces, email elected representatives or <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-change-federal-policies-heres-how-83919">provide input on proposed new policies</a>.</p>
<p>You can also speak up at public events like school board and county board meetings.
In some cases, this feedback can make a real difference.</p>
<p>For example, a group of Baltimore teens formed a group called <a href="https://www.rpcs.org/page/destiny-watford">Free Your Voice</a> when they learned of plans to build the nation’s largest trash-burning incinerator less than a mile from their high school.</p>
<p>The local school system, other city agencies and local nonprofits had already signed contracts to buy energy from the incinerator. But once members of the group made a passionate plea at a school board meeting about their <a href="https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/stopping-one-incinerator-wasnt-enough-for-baltimore-students">concerns regarding the potential pollution</a> in an already contaminated neighborhood, those officials reversed their decision. Other organizations soon followed the school district’s lead. </p>
<p>Members of Free Your Voice succeeded following <a href="https://grist.org/cities/talking-trash-baltimore-students-speak-out-against-waste-burning-power-plant/">years of hard work</a> and <a href="http://marylandreporter.com/2016/01/15/gov-hogan-takes-no-position-on-curtis-bay-incinerator/">countless more meetings</a>, <a href="https://www.wbaltv.com/article/hundreds-protest-construction-of-incinerator-in-baltimore/7084286">mobilizations</a> and <a href="https://www.baltimorebrew.com/2014/05/29/making-music-from-a-plea-about-airborne-mercury-and-materialism/">innovative attempts to make their case</a>. The company planning to build the incinerator eventually <a href="https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/03/baltimore-scraps-waste-to-energy-plan/474645/">lost its permit</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Destiny Watford, a member of the youth-led group Free Your Voice, spent years trying to block plans to build an incinerator in her low-income Baltimore neighborhood.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>2. Partner with the authorities</h2>
<p>Another approach is to get involved at the grassroots level by helping local governments and nonprofits solve problems. Establishing and caring for community gardens is one way to do this in a country where roughly <a href="https://hungerandhealth.feedingamerica.org/understand-food-insecurity/">one in eight lack regular access to affordable, nutritious food</a>. </p>
<p>To address this problem, community activists in New York City founded <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/12/new-york-city-food-justice-community-garden-libertad-urban-farm">BLK ProjeK</a> – one of dozens of such projects involving partnerships between nonprofits and local authorities <a href="https://www.nycgovparks.org/greenthumb/40-years">formed since 1978</a> through the city’s Green Thumb program. The New Yorkers who plant, till and harvest more than 500 community gardens are producing <a href="https://www.nycgovparks.org/news/press-releases?id=21564">87,000 pounds of food</a> each year.</p>
<p>With about <a href="https://communitygarden.org/resources/faq/">18,000 community gardens planted across North America</a>, there are opportunities everywhere to get involved.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">GreenThumb community gardens are located in all five of New York City’s boroughs.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>3. DIY nonprofit</h2>
<p>A third alternative is to join a nonprofit board or even start your own organization.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://theconversation.com/america-has-1-5-million-nonprofits-and-room-for-more-97528">more than 1.5 million U.S. nonprofits</a>, including thousands that are working hard to make communities better by helping vulnerable groups like the disabled, victims of domestic violence and at-risk youth.</p>
<p>All of them must have a <a href="https://www.bridgespan.org/insights/library/boards/why-do-you-need-a-board">board of directors</a> that helps guide the nonprofits’ goals and programs. In most cases, the people serving on these boards <a href="https://www.councilofnonprofits.org/tools-resources/can-board-members-be-paid">are unpaid volunteers</a>. Another option is to form a new nonprofit to address unmet needs. </p>
<p>As the Baltimore battle against the incinerator suggests, even kids can do this. </p>
<p>In 2007, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2010/LIVING/04/08/cnnheroes.mackenzie.bearup/index.html">Mackenzie Bearup</a> of Alpharetta, Georgia, found out that a local residential treatment facility was trying to start a library because the children there did not have books. Bearup, a 13-year-old suffering from an incurable disease, organized a children’s book drive and collected books from friends and neighbors to donate to the library.</p>
<p>The project quickly grew. Along with her brothers Alex and Benjamin, she founded <a href="http://www.shelteringbooks.org/?fbclid=IwAR2Uux0tlnYvRnhc-DfIk1Fxbnc_qJhHeNhXrJ3w04io20zqwzCWt90C-4c">Sheltering Books</a>. By March 2015, the nonprofit had donated 460,000 books to shelters.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">CNN declared Mackenzie Bearup a ‘young wonder’ for her efforts to give books to shelters for homeless and abused children.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Do your homework</h2>
<p>Whatever strategy suits you best, get your facts straight before getting started. Managers at public and nonprofit agencies told us that members of their communities sometimes made suggestions that were unrealistic or would violate current policies or regulations. </p>
<p>Learn as much as you can about the issues you are passionate about, whether it is the environment, education or the opioid crisis. Just as importantly, do your best to understand what the local needs are and what services are already available in your community.</p>
<p>That way, you can ask better questions about what is missing, and your feedback and recommendations will be more helpful.</p>
<p>Local authorities often dismiss engagement and activism as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/casp.1004">NIMBYism – a reflexive not-in-my-back-yard</a> response to any local construction project.</p>
<p>But we believe <a href="https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/opinion/stop-calling-us-nimbys/">these voices can be legitimate</a>. This quieter kind of activism, in our view, is at least as important as mass protests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107933/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Showing up at school board meetings might not sound as exciting as marching in the streets. But it can be an effective way to change things at the local level.Kristina Marty, Associate Dean of the College of Community and Public Affairs, and an Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkAnna Amirkhanyan, Associate Professor of Public Administration and Policy, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1092112019-01-04T11:35:23Z2019-01-04T11:35:23ZWomen who ran for Congress avoided women’s issues in their campaign ads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252397/original/file-20190103-32130-i4ws5g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Screenshot of 'Elaine Luria for Congress: Sea Change.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://youtu.be/BkB3KIFYwa4">YouTube</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A record number of women were sworn into Congress on <a href="https://www.aauw.org/2018/11/13/analysis-what-the-2018-midterm-results-mean-for-women/">Jan. 3</a>.</p>
<p>The influx of women candidates helped turn the midterm election into what many observers dubbed a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/suburban-women-midterms-2018/?utm_term=.13a0850a3c3d">Year of the Woman</a>.”</p>
<p>But despite a tide of voter sentiment favoring women, these winners got to Congress or a statehouse not by defining themselves as “women’s candidates,” but instead by sidestepping issues typically associated with their gender, from equal pay to reproductive freedom.</p>
<p>We are experts on <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/catalog/44ysq6hd9780252038211.html">women and politics</a>, and in a recent <a href="http://www.comm.center.umd.edu/reports.html">study we conducted</a> at the University of Maryland’s <a href="http://www.comm.center.umd.edu/index.htm">Rosenker Center for Political Communication & Civic Leadership</a>, we examined 2018 political ads to understand how woman defined their candidacies and qualifications for office.</p>
<p>We found that, despite the momentum of the #MeToo movement, women were careful in playing the “gender card.” They avoided what are often construed as “<a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/poll-finding/data-note-how-women-voters-influence-2018-elections-and-beyond/">women’s issues</a>” that are associated with gender equality such as abortion, pay equity, sexual violence and harassment.</p>
<h2>Projecting power</h2>
<p>We studied general election ads produced by women challengers running for the U.S. Congress or for governor of their state. We used 52 ads from 25 candidates – nine Republicans and 16 Democrats. Although there were more Democratic women vying for office than Republicans, we made sure to balance the ads by party (29 ads by Republicans and 23 ads by Democrats). All of them were produced by candidates in what we defined as competitive races, meaning 10 points or less separated the candidate and their opponent on Sept. 30, 2018.</p>
<p>A dominant theme that crossed both Democratic and Republican ads is the candidate’s own power and achievements in careers that have historically excluded women. These ads showcase these women’s individual strengths that seemingly prepares them for the rough-and-tumble world of U.S. politics. </p>
<p>In her <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quH2kI6Sbis">“Ring” ad</a>, Democrat <a href="https://www.shariceforcongress.com/home">Sharice Davis</a>, who was running for a U.S. House seat in Kansas, featured her hitting a punching bag – she used to be a mixed martial arts fighter. She identified herself as a “fighter” who will “never back down.” </p>
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<p>Democrat <a href="https://twitter.com/ElaineLuriaVA">Elaine Luria</a> ran for a U.S. House seat in Virginia and chose to highlight her military career in the Navy. In her “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkB3KIFYwa4&index=8&list=PL8d0tb6WcsG-fFnzAc12qLNb97xiq5ux6">Sea Change</a>” ad, she is shown piloting a warship. The ad emphasizes that she was “deployed six times” during her military career.</p>
<p>Republican women similarly communicated their strength with words of power: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU9abTKmDN0">“Proven,”</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTou-Il24NE">“Fight”</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSV9WZW6yqY">“Fearless.”</a> </p>
<p>Republican <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/12/18/martha-mcsally-named-doug-ducey-kyl-mccain-arizona-senate-seat-lost-sinema/2277884002/">Martha McSally</a>, who ran in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, identified herself as the first woman to fly a fighter jet in active duty in her ad <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obHlECvtrEs">“Deployed.”</a> Republican <a href="https://twitter.com/youngkimcd39?lang=en">Young Kim</a>, who ran for the U.S. House in California, defined herself as a “self-made” business leader who promised to never “give up” in an ad titled <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMogl0gDg9E">“My Community.”</a> </p>
<p>One candidate in our study developed an ad exclusively focused on women’s reproductive rights (<a href="https://splash.drkimschrier.com/?ref=https://www.drkimschrier.com/">Dr. Kim Schrier’s</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25DYMbnU94s">“Door”</a> ad – U.S. House candidate from Washington). The other ads, produced by Democrats and Republicans, glossed over the gender inequities women continue to face. Instead, they imply that <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-leaning-in-the-neoliberal-myth-of-the-superhero-businesswoman-holds-us-all-back-101922">gender equality</a> has already been achieved because the candidates have single-handedly shattered gender barriers. As <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3544145/">Merida L. Johns</a> of the <a href="http://www.themonarchctr.com/">Monarch Center for Women’s Leadership Development</a> makes clear, just because individual women are high achievers does not mean the structural barriers inhibiting women’s advancement have been removed.</p>
<h2>Republican women’s dilemma</h2>
<p>Republican women, more than Democrats, had to tread carefully around issues of women’s equality. After all, a majority of Republicans sided with Justice Kavanaugh and President Trump after they were charged with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/us-divide-gender-roles-kavanaugh-women-college/index.html">sexual misconduct</a>. </p>
<p>We saw this play out in the fact that more Republican women candidates aligned themselves with powerful men more than the Democratic candidates did. One reason they may have done this is to lessen the perception of their candidacy as a threat to voters accustomed to <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/03/who-runs-for-office-a-profile-of-the-2/">male leadership</a>.</p>
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<p>For example, Republican Carol Miller, who ran for the U.S. House in West Virginia, ran an ad <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJyEPlESgJ4">featuring male veterans</a> attacking her Democratic opponent <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/richard-ojeda-richard-ojeda-for-congress--campaign-2018/2018/11/01/985b1f6e-dded-11e8-8bac-bfe01fcdc3a6_video.html">Richard Ojeda</a> for challenging the country’s “greatness.” At the end of the ad, she is flanked by two muscular men – one a coal miner and the other a Marine. </p>
<p>Some explicitly ran on Donald Trump’s coattails. And Tennessee’s U.S. Senate candidate <a href="https://twitter.com/votemarsha">Marsha Blackburn</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBPKuLJXgvo">featured an ad showing her</a> hugging the president and boasting about his endorsement of her.</p>
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<p>Other Republican candidates used gender stereotypes to demean their opponents. For example, in her <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEUVNBqqC4E">“Walk” ad</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/ElizabethHeng?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Elizabeth Heng</a>, running for the U.S. House in California, challenged the masculinity of her opponent, <a href="https://costa.house.gov/">Representative Jim Costa</a>, by depicting him walking the streets in red high heels as the voice over mocked: “Costa’s walking in Nancy Pelosi’s shoes.”</p>
<h2>The takeaway</h2>
<p>These ads reveal that using their <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bonniemarcus/2015/09/14/playing-the-gender-card-in-business-and-politics/#3f67a78f129a">gender as an advantage</a>, trying to promote women’s issues, or calling out sexist behavior are still a challenge for women in politics. The ads in our study reflect the cautionary words that Democratic pollster <a href="https://www.barbaraleefoundation.org/research/modern-family/">Celinda Lake</a> offers to women candidates: “Traditional gender roles remain powerful, influencing what we perceive to be acceptable and appropriate behavior for men and women.” </p>
<p>In 2018, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/21/women-campaign-trail-sexism-is-no-longer-forbidden-word/?utm_term=.269406c7ca6b">The Washington Post</a> reports, some candidates charged their opponents with “sexist” behavior while others more likely used “surrogates” to issue such accusations. Candidates stayed away from such controversial accusations in the ads we studied. </p>
<p>In his published research, sociologist <a href="https://www.robertdfrancis.com/">Robert D. Francis</a> writes that because <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2378023117736486">“modern sexism”</a> presumes “discrimination against women has been overcome,” a sense of “resentment” follows those who allege “sexism.” Rather than tackle the inequalities that women confront in public and private, many candidates in this study showed they could make it in a man’s world – throwing punches, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHViPTnf3lQ">shooting guns</a>, steering warships, piloting planes, running corporations, and aligning themselves with powerful men.</p>
<p>As these newly elected women step into their leadership role this week, the question remains as to whether they will sidestep or tackle the gender equity issues that will finally make the “Year of the Woman” a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/sunday-review/down-with-the-year-of-the-woman.html">relic of our past</a>.</p>
<p><em>Jenna Bachman, Darrian Carroll, Lauren Hunter, Naette Lee, Hazel Feigenblatt Rojas and Sarah Vick contributed to this story.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the #MeToo movement, women in politics still face challenges in talking openly about gender equality.Shawn J. Parry-Giles, Professor of Communication, University of MarylandAya Hussein Farhat, Ph.D. Student, University of MarylandMatthew Salzano, Graduate Student, University of MarylandSkye de Saint Felix, Doctoral Student, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1087182019-01-02T11:23:55Z2019-01-02T11:23:55ZOnly 1 out of 36 newly elected female representatives in Congress is Republican – here’s why it matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252150/original/file-20181230-47322-1vmab9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3361%2C2088&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Carol Miller of West Virginia is the only newly elected Republican woman joining the 116th Congress.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/House-Member-Elect-Orientation/93bd3cc9f2b84fa689938516c191891a/2/0">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 116th Congress will be the most diverse in U.S. history: 126 women will take office, including 43 women of color. Yet, as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/democratic-women-make-big-gains-in-house-as-gop-women-lose-ground-in-historic-election.html">many</a> have <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/13/house-gop-women-shrinking-lowest-level-25-years/2207124002/">noted</a>, this new diversity is confined to one side of the aisle. </p>
<p>The number of Republican women in Congress <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/resources/results_release_5bletterhead5d_1.pdf">is actually dropping</a> from 23 to 13. Only one out of 36 freshman female representatives is a Republican. So while 2018 certainly was the Year of the Woman, Republican women are watching from the sidelines. </p>
<p>Whether you are progressive or conservative, this is bad news. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9DitCa4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">political</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jnBSYuwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scientists</a>, we strongly believe that both democracy and feminism work best when there is a critical mass of women in each major political party. A democracy should reflect the diversity of its society. Considering that women make up over half of the U.S. population but only 23 percent of Congress, American democracy already under represents women. For Republican women, the mismatch is even more pronounced. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/us/elections/house-exit-polls-analysis.html">Nearly half</a> of all women in this country regularly vote for Republican candidates. For example, Donald Trump won <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/groups-voted-2016/">41 percent</a> of the female vote in 2016 and Mitt Romney won <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/">44 percent</a> in 2012. Yet the overall numbers of Republican women candidates and elected women has <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/gender">stagnated</a> at around 15 percent for the past two decades and is now declining. </p>
<p>This is important for many reasons.</p>
<h2>GOP women add value to the democratic process</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252059/original/file-20181228-47292-1gbp1j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ilhan Omar of Minnesota is one of 35 freshman Democrats joining Congress.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Pelosi-House-Democrats/d18549c0d728410f8ec1c76ab400b75f/4/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
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<p>For one, Republican women, both as voters and legislators, often have different <a href="https://pages.uncc.edu/mary-atkinson/wp-content/uploads/sites/619/2018/05/AtkinsonAndWindett_GenderStereotypes.pdf">policy views and priorities</a> than their male counterparts. Elected Republican women have provided crucial voices in setting policy. For example, Republican women were <a href="https://stefanik.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/house-republicans-introduce-vawa-extension">vocal</a> in their support to reauthorize the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/103rd-congress/senate-bill/11">1993 Violence Against Women Act</a> last year. Republican women have also been able to speak about womanhood in a language that fellow conservative lawmakers could relate to. Further, GOP women have <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/mariel-klein/women-in-congress-are-more-bipartisan-collaborative_b_6715606.html">forged bipartisan compromises</a> in the past few decades with Democratic women. </p>
<p>More generally, research has shown that women on both sides of the aisle provide excellent <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00512.x">constituency service</a> and are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12010">more effective lawmakers</a> than men. In other words, it is a problem for all of us from Republican districts – and for democracy more generally – if women are mostly concentrated in one party. </p>
<h2>Higher hurdles for GOP women</h2>
<p>So what can be done? </p>
<p>Most importantly, we should dispel the myth that the decline of women in the GOP is a Republican “war on women” with the GOP actively trying to keep women out of the party. Instead, our <a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A5236C">research</a> shows that Republican women face greater <a href="https://www.politicalparity.org/research/primary-hurdles/">barriers</a> to entry compared to either Democratic women or Republican men. </p>
<p>First, Republican women have more limited access than Republican men to campaign dollars at the crucial primary stage when fundraising numbers signal candidate viability. </p>
<p>Both in individual donations and political action committee, or PAC, giving, the picture looks bleak for Republican women. In <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/10/democratic-women-outraise-men-among-female-donors-another-record-breaking-first/">2018</a>, Republican women raised approximately US$19 million from women donors. Compare that to $159 million Democratic female candidates raised from women. </p>
<p>One of the biggest problems for Republican women is that they do not have access to an established and well-funded PAC network. While Democrats have EMILY’s List, which supports pro-choice Democratic women as candidates, and many more well-funded progressive women’s PACs, conservative women’s PACs are fragmented and underfunded. One conservative counterpart to EMILY’s List is the Susan B. Anthony List, which supports pro-life candidates of both genders. In 2018, <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00193433&cycle=2018">EMILY’s List</a> spent almost $69 million in support of Democratic pro-choice women. In contrast, the <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00332296">SBA List</a> spent around $799,000 in support of pro-life candidates including Democratic and Republican men. </p>
<p>In addition to limited funds, conservative women PACs lack visibility and viability. WISH List, supporting pro-choice Republican women, faltered within 10 years and ShePAC within two years. <a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A5236C">Research</a> by political scientists Rosalyn Cooperman and Melody Crowder-Meyer show that few GOP donors have heard of these efforts. Low visibility and limited funds mean that an endorsement of such PACs carries little weight compared to the endorsement of EMILY’s List, which is widely seen as a signal of viability and leads to an influx of donations from other sources. </p>
<p>Other efforts to increase the number of Republican women such as the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Project GROW” – which stands for “Growing Republican Opportunities for Women” – have also fallen short. As the first female head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, New York Rep. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/opinion/gop-women-republican-stefanik.html">Elise Stefanik</a> recruited over 100 women to run for the Republican Party. Only one of them won office.</p>
<p>Second, Republican women have a pipeline problem. Typically, candidates first run for local or state office before making a run for U.S. Congress. Yet, as of 2018, only <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/women-state-legislature-2018">37.6 percent</a> of all female state legislators across the U.S. are Republican. Fewer Republican women in lower offices means that fewer women will run for Congress. But this lack of a good bench is not due to a lack of ambition. Political scientist <a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A5236C">Abbie Erler of Kenyon College shows</a> that Republican women are as ambitious as Democratic women. Instead, Republican women tend to live in states where opportunity structures are limited, meaning congressional delegations are small and turnover is low.</p>
<p>Third, Republicans reject “identity politics.” As political scientist <a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A5236C">Cathy Wineinger of Western Washington University shows</a>, the Republican Party traditionally emphasizes individualism, social conservatism, a free market economy and national security. The GOP dismisses group-based representational claims about identity or diversity, which the Democratic Party embraces. This ideological bent hampers internal discussion of why electing women is important and makes it harder to establish a positive mechanism to address the lack of women in the party. </p>
<p>This is why <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/elise-stefanik-wants-to-play-in-primaries-to-help-republican-women">Stefanik’s push</a> for a new conservative women’s PAC is so important. She correctly identified the most important step to getting more women elected: early financial and logistical support in primaries. Without an entity that provides training, access to experienced campaign staff and fundraising, the GOP will never remedy its women deficit. </p>
<p>In the long run, being the party of white men is a losing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/02/us/politics/republicans-midterms-house-losses.html">demographic strategy</a> for Republicans. More importantly, democracy depends on the debate of multiple viewpoints by diverse people. We do not mean to suggest that there must be perfect numerical equality at all times, but inequities should rotate, not stagnate. For legitimate representative governance, each party needs to contain a strong core of elected women. The American government and governing system would be better with more women on each side of the aisle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malliga Och was the Research Director of Political Parity, a former program of Hunt Alternatives, that funded parts of this research. Malliga Och is currently the academic Research Fellow of the Reflective Democratic Campaign, a project of the Woman Donors Network. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shauna Shames was the Research Fellow of Political Parity, a former program of Hunt Alternatives, which funded parts of this research.</span></em></p>Republican women face higher barriers to reaching elected office. A GOP allergy to identity politics plays a role too.Malliga Och, Assistant Professor of Global Studies and Languages, Idaho State UniversityShauna Shames, Assistant Professor, Rutgers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1077622018-12-05T11:41:14Z2018-12-05T11:41:14ZMedicaid work requirements: Where do they stand after the blue wave?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248191/original/file-20181130-194925-klh28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Laura Kelly, governor-elect of Kansas, was part of the blue wave in November. Kelly, shown here in October, opposes Medicaid work requirements. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Kansas-Governor/41792ac188b248268427536a6a36260d/1/0">AP Photo/John Hanna</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-votes-have-been-counted-the-results-are-mostly-in-whats-next-for-health-care-106574">2018 midterm elections</a> have dealt a significant setback to President Trump’s agenda in the <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article-abstract/43/2/271/133583">legislative arena</a>. </p>
<p>However, there are still many ways for the Trump administration to keep swinging away at the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1541-0072.2012.00446.x">Affordable Care Act</a>. One particularly effective unilateral instrument is the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/influence-and-the-administrative-process-lobbying-the-us-presidents-office-of-management-and-budget/638F34BC73235AB4833C852B24C431AF">regulatory process</a> – that is, the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jpart/article-abstract/28/4/475/5056341">implementation of statutory law by executive agencies</a>.</p>
<p>This may prove particularly consequential for <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article-abstract/40/2/281/13726">Medicaid</a>, the health coverage program for those with low incomes or disabilities. One particular area of attention for scholars like me is <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ogsghmra0tdjbz/Haeder%20WV%20Medicaid%20Work%20Requirements%20Public.pdf?dl=1">so-called community engagement or work requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries</a>. These mandates generally require beneficiaries to conduct work-related activities or lose coverage. </p>
<p>While still in litigation, the Trump administration has indicated its <a href="https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payer/hhs-alex-azar-medicaid-work-requirements-hipaa-heritage-foundation">strong commitment to moving forward with these efforts</a>. </p>
<p>Helping individuals leave poverty is a worthwhile cause. As someone who studies health policy, I am concerned, based on research that others and I have conducted, that the focus of the Trump administration is misplaced. Indeed, their actions <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ogsghmra0tdjbz/Haeder%20WV%20Medicaid%20Work%20Requirements%20Public.pdf?dl=1">run counter to a broad scholarly consensus</a> which universally emphasizes the benefits of health coverage. Most critically, they may disproportionately affect populations with vulnerabilities.</p>
<h2>Work for coverage: What the evidence from welfare reform tells us</h2>
<p>Work requirements have been implemented in a variety of public assistance programs outside of Medicaid. They have been featured most prominently in the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ogsghmra0tdjbz/Haeder%20WV%20Medicaid%20Work%20Requirements%20Public.pdf?dl=1">Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program</a>, or what Americans generally refer to as “welfare.” </p>
<p>When President Clinton and a Republican Congress <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/04/the-end-of-welfare-as-we-know-it/476322/">“ended welfare as we know it”</a> in 1996, they imposed strict work requirements and time limits for beneficiaries. The resulting changes can only be described as transformational. Importantly, they include a <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ogsghmra0tdjbz/Haeder%20WV%20Medicaid%20Work%20Requirements%20Public.pdf?dl=1">dramatic decline in the nation’s welfare case load</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248192/original/file-20181130-194938-1mjspcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248192/original/file-20181130-194938-1mjspcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248192/original/file-20181130-194938-1mjspcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248192/original/file-20181130-194938-1mjspcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248192/original/file-20181130-194938-1mjspcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248192/original/file-20181130-194938-1mjspcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248192/original/file-20181130-194938-1mjspcu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many people on Medicaid work, and many of those who do not wish they could find a job.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/construction-worker-285300212?src=L4ApcCx22gSFt9k1fBS-Eg-1-14">Zoran Orcik/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>Proponents of work requirements have <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ogsghmra0tdjbz/Haeder%20WV%20Medicaid%20Work%20Requirements%20Public.pdf?dl=1">hailed these developments</a> as vindication of the policy. More deliberate assessments, however, have raised questions about this interpretation. </p>
<p>For one, there is strong evidence that a significant reduction in caseload was a result of the <a href="https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=751040">strong economy in the late 1990s</a>. The reduction also coincided with the <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/61306/310282-How-Are-Families-That-Left-Welfare-Doing-.PDF">expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit</a>, which made work more profitable for low-income earners. Additionally, a major portion of the reduction of the welfare load has been the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/from-welfare-to-work-what-the-evidence-shows/">result of eligible individuals merely being diverted from the program</a>. </p>
<p>When it comes to the experience of people who benefit from Medicaid, more causes for concern emerge. Indeed, <a href="https://www.macpac.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Work-as-a-Condition-of-Medicaid-Eligibility-Key-Take-Aways-from-TANF.pdf">most employment and income gains have proven ephemeral</a>. </p>
<p>Individuals who were subject to work requirements generally <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/from-welfare-to-work-what-the-evidence-shows/">found only entry-level, low-paying jobs</a> without <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/work-requirements-dont-cut-poverty-evidence-shows">benefits</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, employment is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/from-welfare-to-work-what-the-evidence-shows/">often impermanent and therefore highly unstable</a>. </p>
<p>Critically, beneficiaries have also <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/work-requirements-dont-cut-poverty-evidence-shows">failed to transition into better-paying jobs over time</a>. As a result, they continue to <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/61306/310282-How-Are-Families-That-Left-Welfare-Doing-.PDF">struggle with housing and food security</a>. </p>
<p>Studies have found <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/from-welfare-to-work-what-the-evidence-shows/">no hard evidence for sustained reductions in poverty</a>.</p>
<p>And certain populations faced particularly negative impacts. These include those with significant employment barriers such as <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/from-welfare-to-work-what-the-evidence-shows/">chronic health conditions, low job skills, and low education status</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/95566/work-requirements-in-social-safety-net-programs.pdf">Minorities</a> appear to also be disproportionately affected. The same holds for those <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-enrollees-and-work-requirements-lessons-from-the-tanf-experience/">suffering from addiction or domestic violence</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps of greatest concern is evidence that for a significant portion of those beneficiaries forced off public assistance the result has been <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/work-requirements-dont-cut-poverty-evidence-shows">a slide into deep and persistent poverty</a>.</p>
<h2>Work requirements and the Trump administration</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248193/original/file-20181130-194935-m1me3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248193/original/file-20181130-194935-m1me3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248193/original/file-20181130-194935-m1me3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248193/original/file-20181130-194935-m1me3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248193/original/file-20181130-194935-m1me3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248193/original/file-20181130-194935-m1me3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248193/original/file-20181130-194935-m1me3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pres. Trump speaking at a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, Aug. 2, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wilkesbarre-pa-august-2-2018-president-1148319818?src=bIJn1M8li9AMc_Cs5-tArQ-1-8">Evan El-Amin/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>Since taking office, the Trump administration has sought to aggressively introduce work requirements into the <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article-abstract/40/2/281/13726">Medicaid program</a>. It has argued that doing so would <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/408724-trump-administration-defends-medicaid-work-requirements-after-coverage">“put beneficiaries in control with the right incentives to live healthier, independent lives.” </a></p>
<p>It has done so using so-called <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/section-1115-medicaid-demonstration-waivers-the-current-landscape-of-approved-and-pending-waivers/">1115 demonstration waivers</a>. These waivers allow states to make temporary changes to their Medicaid programs that omit certain <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-policy-history/article/inching-toward-universal-coverage-statefederal-healthcare-programs-in-historical-perspective/E94A03DD1F60F9DCBE3DDE9728DA3224">statutory requirements</a>. </p>
<p>These waivers have been traditionally used by both parties to expand, not reduce, coverage.</p>
<p>As a result, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has received more than a dozen waiver requests seeking to implement work requirements from states like <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-waiver-tracker-approved-and-pending-section-1115-waivers-by-state/">Kentucky, Arkansas and Michigan</a>. Proposals <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ogsghmra0tdjbz/Haeder%20WV%20Medicaid%20Work%20Requirements%20Public.pdf?dl=1">differ significantly</a> between states in terms of such characteristics as work effort required, what activities count toward compliance and exemptions.</p>
<p>Yet due to <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-waiver-tracker-approved-and-pending-section-1115-waivers-by-state/">legal issues</a>, the only program currently operational is in <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-waiver-tracker-approved-and-pending-section-1115-waivers-by-state/">Arkansas</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.apnews.com/d9d0613c59a2481a953074177c33170f">experience in Arkansas</a> appears emblematic for many efforts to impose work requirements. In particular, it illustrates what appears to be a deliberate attempt to reduce enrollment, rather than to help people leave poverty. </p>
<p>Work requirements, as implemented in Arkansas, are particularly concerning because they impose several significant burdens. One of these that has raised particular concern is <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20180904.979085/full/">the requirement that Medicaid recipients report compliance of their work requirements solely to an online portal</a>. No provisions are made for beneficiaries to report in person, on paper or via phone. This is in a state that ranks at the <a href="https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/08/arkansas-medicaid-work-requirements-online-reporting/567589/">bottom nationwide</a> when it comes to internet access. </p>
<p>Moreover, the portal is offline for a significant number of hours each day. There have also been no efforts to support beneficiaries’ work efforts such as job training, child care assistance or transportation allowances. </p>
<p>And indeed, early experiences confirm many of the fears of advocates and scholars alike, as <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20180904.979085/full/">thousands of Arkansans have already lost coverage</a>. </p>
<p>Many of those losing coverage may have lost coverage not because of failure to work but instead <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20180904.979085/full/">because they were unable to report their work efforts</a>.</p>
<h2>Supporting work instead of taking away health coverage</h2>
<p>Proponents of work requirements argue that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-medicaid-work-requirements-a-good-idea-1529892000">requiring people to work will make them healthier and more economically secure</a>. Accompanying this argument is the assertion that many beneficiaries are willfully choosing not to work. Thus, beneficiaries have to be pushed into the workforce by a paternalistic government.</p>
<p>However, this line of argument runs counter to the <a href="https://publichealth.gwu.edu/sites/default/files/downloads/HPM/Kentucky%20Medicaid%20Proposed%20Amici%20Curiae%20Brief.pdf">expert consensus</a> that has emerged. Indeed, most scholars emphasizes the strong, positive effects that sustained health coverage has in supporting the work efforts of people who receive benefits. Taking away medical coverage runs contrary to the goal of alleviating poverty and transitioning Medicaid beneficiaries into stable work environments. </p>
<p>Blaming <a href="https://www.prb.org/majority-of-people-covered-by-medicaid-and-similar-programs/">Medicaid beneficiaries</a>, most of whom are indeed working, taking care of family members or disabled, for not working misses many of the subtleties of the underlying problems. Many beneficiaries face personal and systemic barriers such as lack of education, transportation or economic opportunity. <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ogsghmra0tdjbz/Haeder%20WV%20Medicaid%20Work%20Requirements%20Public.pdf?dl=1">Many are unable</a> to find long-term, stable jobs with health benefits despite their best efforts.</p>
<p>Yet, the effects of work requirements go well beyond the population targeted by them. Perhaps most concerning, work requirements may cause significant harm to populations with vulnerabilities such as minorities, the disabled and the chronically ill. Confusion, lack of information and the stresses of living in poverty may prove overwhelming. The results may be disenrollment. This holds even for <a href="https://wvpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/WV-Medicaid-Work-Requirements-Report.pdf">those who are technically exempted from work requirements</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this may not be a glitch but may point to the true underlying rationale. That is, the true goal for many supporters of work requirements may be the disenrollment of large numbers of beneficiaries, reductions in government expenditures and ultimately a disengagement from the social safety net. </p>
<p>Despite these concerns, one should not ignore the valid concerns of many working low- and middle-income Americans who are working and struggling. </p>
<p>I believe what the U.S. truly needs are policies that provide equitable opportunities for all Americans. A particular focus should be on offering access to affordable health care and education, and <a href="https://wvpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/WV-Medicaid-Work-Requirements-Report.pdf">policies that encourage, support and reward work</a>. Proven policy solutions to do this include expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit and providing access to affordable health care and educational opportunities. </p>
<p>Scholars play an important role in this process by informing policy choices with empirical evidence. We are also tasked to stand up and point out when our work is misrepresented in the political process. Finally, we have to be particularly mindful of those with vulnerabilities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon is a Fellow in the Interdisciplinary Research Leaders Program, a national leadership development program supported by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation to equip teams of researchers and community partners in applying research to solve real community problems.</span></em></p>Republicans have sought to limit Medicaid, and a key component of those efforts is requiring that those who receive Medicaid benefits work. But many already do, and others can’t, a scholar explains.Simon F. Haeder, Assistant Professor of Political Science, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1061222018-11-28T11:42:59Z2018-11-28T11:42:59ZIn Georgia’s gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams’ strategy may make victory easier for future black candidates in the South<p>Democrat Stacey Abrams was poised to become America’s first black female governor in Georgia during the 2018 midterms.</p>
<p>She lost by only <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-6628.html">1.5 percentage points</a>. Because of allegations of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/10/12/georgias-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-brian-kemp-sued-over-claims-of-suppressing-53000-minority-voters/">voter suppression</a>, Abrams felt duty-bound to legally challenge potential voting irregularities before offering any type of concession. By the time she exhausted those legal options, she still had fewer votes than Republican Brian Kemp.</p>
<p>Even though she lost, I still think she – and future black candidates in the Deep South – won.</p>
<p>Abrams’ candidacy – along with the breakthrough candidacy of Florida’s Andrew Gillum – help to dismantle the implied fear of many Democratic observers that black candidates cannot be viable statewide candidates, especially in the Deep South. </p>
<h2>Few black statewide elected officials</h2>
<p>In general, despite the election of Barack Obama and the near proportional representation of blacks in the U.S. House of Representatives, blacks are underrepresented in statewide offices like governor, U.S. senator and state attorney general.</p>
<p>In the more than 150 years since Reconstruction, there have been only two elected black governors, 14 lieutenant governors, six elected <a href="https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/h_multi_sections_and_teasers/Photo_Exhibit_African_American_Senators.htm">U.S. senators</a> and, until Election Day, four state <a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/11/08/attorney-general-elections-midterm-results/">attorneys general</a>. On election night, four African-Americans won races to serve their states as attorney general and one African-American won a lieutenant governor’s seat.</p>
<p>Scholars attribute part of the current disparity to demographics. While there are congressional districts with large minority populations that have a history of electing black representatives, no state has a majority black population that would likely do the same.</p>
<p>Because no state has a majority African-American population, scholars and political analysts have opined about the likelihood that non-black voters would be willing to vote for black candidates statewide.</p>
<p>States like Massachusetts and Virginia, which have larger white Democratic populations, have elected <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-black/factbox-black-u-s-senators-and-governors-idUSN2044253720080630">African-American governors</a>. However, this has been less likely to happen in the Deep South, where racially polarized voting is more stark and gives the advantage to Republican, typically white, candidates.</p>
<p>For these reasons, African-American Democratic candidates for statewide office in Georgia, as in other parts of the Deep South, have often faced skepticism. </p>
<p>Sometimes, they have run as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/29/politics/trail/democrat-to-seek-retiring-senators-seat-in-georgia.html">sacrificial lamb candidate</a> – the one who has no chance of winning, but runs anyway to ensure Democratic representation on the ballot. </p>
<p>Other times, seasoned black candidates, such as former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, have chosen not to run for statewide office. They decided not to waste political capital on a race that would be hard for any Democrat to win. </p>
<p>In lieu of willing black candidates, Georgia Democrats have often nominated centrist white candidates such as Roy Barnes or Jason Carter. They hope such candidates will win back working class or suburban white voters who started leaving the party after the civil rights movement and first helped to deliver the governor’s mansion to the Republicans in 2002. </p>
<p>Usually, regardless of their race, both the white and black Democratic candidates ended up losing.</p>
<p>In this context, Abrams offered a new path – one that did not pay off in this election, but will likely reap dividends in the long run.</p>
<h2>A new campaign template?</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247607/original/file-20181127-76767-1ifzsmf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, left, shakes hands with a supporter as she leaves a rally, Monday, Nov. 5, 2018, in Rincon, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Abrams proposed expanding the Democratic Party base in Georgia through voter registration and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-10-12/inside-stacey-abrams-strategy-to-mobilize-georgia-voters">intensive voter mobilization</a> designed to drive up turnout. </p>
<p>Her campaign <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-10-13/stacey-abrams-trying-to-mobilize-georgias-sporadic-voters">invested in</a> canvassing and phone banking operations, taking to heart the lessons imparted by scholars like <a href="https://isps.yale.edu/sites/default/files/publication/2012/12/ISPS00-001.pdf">Don Green and Alan Gerber</a>, who demonstrated how canvassing and live phone banking increases voter turnout. </p>
<p>Abrams radically asserted a strategy premised not on trying to woo back whites who had left the Democratic Party long ago, but focused on building a new base of voters of color, whose population in Georgia is <a href="https://gbpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/matt_hauer_gbpipresentation.pdf">growing</a>. </p>
<p>Abrams was challenging the practice that political scientist Paul Frymer referred to as Democratic <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Uneasy_Alliances.html?id=tZKaswEACAAJ&source=kp_book_description">“electoral capture.”</a> Frymer argues that Democrats assume that they do not need to target campaign messages to black voters because data show roughly 90 percent of them vote Democratic. </p>
<p>Instead, Abrams looked at the diversity of the Democratic base in Georgia and argued that because of their strong Democratic voting behavior, blacks deserved additional campaign attention.</p>
<h2>A community no longer taken for granted</h2>
<p>By focusing on minority outreach, Abrams turned the notion of electoral capture on its head, arguing that Democrats could yield more black votes if they campaigned in black communities. </p>
<p>Moreover, as a serious candidate of color, Abrams also challenged the idea that only centrist white candidates could put together a formidable campaign coalition in Georgia. By expanding the electorate through voter registration and taking painstaking care to remind new and longstanding voters to turn out to vote, Abrams earned <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/91639/Web02-state.221451/#/">more votes</a> than <a href="http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/54042/149045/en/summary.html">previous</a> Democratic gubernatorial candidates. </p>
<p>Proportionally, Abrams earned <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia">slightly more</a> support among white voters than <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/governor/">Jason Carter</a>, the last Democratic gubernatorial nominee. Thus, she outperformed her white Democratic predecessors using a wide-ranging and inclusive strategy.</p>
<p>So, even though Abrams lost this election battle, she still won in many important ways.</p>
<p>To be sure, Abrams’ race and gender subjected her to particularly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/04/racist-magical-negro-robo-call-oprah-targets-stacey-abrams-georgia-governors-race/?utm_term=.c7be5d31d8c1">bigoted attacks</a>. And when I say that she still won, I am not ignoring the ways that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/stacey-abrams-brian-kemp-georgia-cnntv/index.html">voter suppression</a> may have dampened her support. However, Abrams’ performance shows that black candidates in the Deep South can run effective, highly competitive campaigns.</p>
<p>Democratic candidates still face challenges running in solidly Republican states, but Abrams has provided a template for showing how black Democrats can be competitive, even in parts of the Deep South.</p>
<p>As such, the results of the 2018 election demonstrate that the implied fears about nominating serious black candidates for statewide office in the Deep South are misplaced. While party is still a disadvantage for any Democratic candidate in Republican-leaning states, black candidates like Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum have shown how they can navigate racial landmines and partisan disadvantages to run competitive races. Instead of assuming that black candidates will underperform their white counterparts running for statewide office, perhaps we should focus our attention on rooting out institutional burdens that may make equal access to the ballot more difficult. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to reflect the correct number of elected black U.S. Senators.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andra Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Not all victories in the 2018 midterms were electoral.Andra Gillespie, Associate Professor, Political Science, Emory UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1067382018-11-15T11:44:48Z2018-11-15T11:44:48Z3 ways the women’s movement in US politics is misunderstood<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245639/original/file-20181114-194513-x1ooyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey after winning the election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Governor-Alabama/0830b52ff2154964aeb2ae9efe799180/3/0">AP Photo/Butch Dill</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/women-midterms-historic.html">record number</a> of women are headed to statehouses and Capitol Hill in 2019. One hundred women were elected to the U.S. House, which means that at least 121 women will serve in the 116th Congress – up from the current 107. </p>
<p>Twelve women were elected to the U.S. Senate. This new record shatters the 1992 “year of the woman” in which five women were elected to serve in the Senate. </p>
<p>Media outlets have been quick to attribute women’s candidacies and successes to the Democratic “blue wave.” This generalization ignores places like <a href="https://sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/ballot-measures/statewide">Alabama</a>, where voters elected a Republican woman as governor and passed a measure that recognizes and supports “the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children” and another measure that allows the display of the Ten Commandments on public property and in schools. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://sdsos.gov/elections-voting/upcoming-elections/general-information/2018-ballot-questions.aspx">South Dakota</a>, voters also elected a Republican female governor and rejected progressive-backed measures that would have revised campaign finance and lobbying laws as well as increased taxes on tobacco products.</p>
<p>As a scholar of politics and social movements, I’m often asked to explain these contradictory outcomes.</p>
<p>Here are three things to keep in mind about women and politics as a new Congress prepares to take office.</p>
<h2>1. Women vote more than men, and not all are Democrats</h2>
<p>How women vote is often not well explained in news coverage. Journalists emphasize that <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/resources/genderdiff.pdf">women vote more</a> than men and that more women tend to identify as Democrats. </p>
<p>This is true. If you look at <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/">gender alone</a>, 54 percent of women identify as Democrats or lean Democrat, and only 38 percent of women identify as Republican or lean Republican. </p>
<p>The problem is that these numbers miss key demographic differences that divide women’s votes. A lot of <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/">white</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/352669?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">married women</a> vote Republican. According to the <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/">Pew Research Center</a>, 47 percent of white women identified as Republican or Republican-leaning and 46 percent of white women identified as Democrat or Democrat-leaning in 2016. </p>
<p>This thin margin among white women was clear in the 2016 presidential election: 45 percent of <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/">white women</a> voted for Hillary Clinton and 47 percent voted for Donald Trump. Compare this to women of color: 98 percent of black women and 67 percent of Hispanic women voted for Clinton in the 2016 election. </p>
<h2>2. Conservative feminism</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245571/original/file-20181114-194503-1gh3t2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Penny Nance (far right), CEO and president of Concerned Women for America, poses with President Donald Trump after he signed a measure allowing states to withhold federal funds from facilities that provide abortion services.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/33573170453">Official White House Photo by Myles Cullen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190204204.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780190204204-e-8">Experts</a> have found that conservative women and conservative women’s groups consider themselves part of the “women’s movement” even as they reject the traditional goals of that movement: equal rights legislation, legal abortion, some forms of birth control and the ability of women to serve in combat. While these <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3177616?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">conservative feminists</a> advocate for women’s advancement in culture and politics, they celebrate and defend many aspects of traditional femininity including women’s roles as family caregivers. </p>
<p>Take the group <a href="https://concernedwomen.org/">Concerned Women for America</a>, which I’ve <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/sociology/political-sociology/abortion-politics-mass-media-and-social-movements-america?format=HB&isbn=9781107069237">studied extensively</a>. It was created in 1979 in response to the political successes of the liberal feminist National Organization for Women, which some believed did not represent the political views of all American women. </p>
<p>Concerned Women for America founder Beverly LaHaye, whose late husband was a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tim-LaHaye">politically prominent evangelical minister</a> and conservative activist, saw her organization as a way to represent more traditional and religious values in the women’s movement. The organization pushed back against legal abortion, the Equal Rights Amendment and infringements on religious expression such as restrictions on school prayer. </p>
<p>Today, Concerned Women of America is a political powerhouse that mobilizes its half-million members to elect Republican candidates. Virtually every Republican running for the presidency since 1980 has stopped in at the organization’s annual convention in an effort to gain the group’s favor and conservative women’s votes. </p>
<p>Concerned Women for America also has a strong presence in conservative <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/sociology/political-sociology/abortion-politics-mass-media-and-social-movements-america?format=HB&isbn=9781107069237">states</a> such as Alabama. The efforts of powerful <a href="http://altoday.com/archives/25996-alabamians-rally-with-concerned-women-of-america-in-support-of-brett-kavanaugh-scotus-confirmation">conservative women’s groups</a> including Concerned Women for America help explain why voters in Alabama elected only its second female governor in 50 years, Kay Ivey, with 60 percent of the vote and passed socially conservative measures. </p>
<p>Ivey is a Republican whose top two issues, <a href="https://kayivey.com/issues/">according to her website</a>, were her belief in God and her value of the lives of the unborn. It’s a safe bet to say that the women – and men – who voted for Ivey, also voted for the conservative ballot measures.</p>
<h2>3. Women’s power at the state level</h2>
<p>How politically powerful women are varies across the U.S. and, to some extent, reflects ideas about how women and men should act. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2079342?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Historians</a> find, for example, that voters in Southern states tend to reinforce traditional gender norms and frown on women holding political office. </p>
<p>For example, Nevada and South Carolina are politically mixed states but vary dramatically in their ranking on <a href="https://wallethub.com/edu/best-and-worst-states-for-women-equality/5835/">women’s equality</a> and political empowerment. According to WalletHub, a personal finance website, Nevada is the fourth best state when it comes to equality between men and women on 16 key indicators, including workplace environment, education, health and political empowerment. South Carolina ranks 45th.</p>
<p>The election outcomes were also very different. </p>
<p>In each state, <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/2018-women-candidates-us-congress-and-statewide-elected-executive">seven women ran for office in the midterm elections</a>. In Nevada, five women (Democrats and Republicans) <a href="https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/nevada/">won their races</a> outright and another race is too close to call. Only two of the seven female candidates (both Republicans) won in South Carolina. There is a clear difference between the two states in women’s degree of political power. </p>
<p>Nevada also has a much better track record of women running and winning. This is not true of <a href="https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/south-carolina/">South Carolina</a>, where it was seen as an achievement in 2016 when just four women were elected to the state Senate, which has 46 seats.</p>
<p>Women made history in 2018, but there is more to the story than the Democratic “blue wave.” The diversity of women and the different contexts in which they operate have implications for politics and policy for decades to come.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct that Kay Ivey is Alabama’s second woman governor.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106738/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deana Rohlinger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While a record number of women are headed to Congress, a number of conservative measures passed across states. What explains this?Deana Rohlinger, Professor of Sociology, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065002018-11-14T11:47:12Z2018-11-14T11:47:12ZA county in Idaho offered Spanish-language ballots for the first time and here’s what happened<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/un-condado-de-idaho-en-eeuu-ofrecio-papeletas-en-espanol-por-primera-vez-y-esto-es-lo-que-paso-106976">Leer en español</a></em>.</p>
<p>On the morning of Election Day, the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/matters-donde-votar-spanish-vote-googles-top-search/story?id=59003457">top trending search on Google was “donde votar</a>,” which means “where to vote” in Spanish.</p>
<p>Voter access to the polls was a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45986329">major issue</a> during the 2018 midterm elections in the U.S. Charges of voter suppression were made in in Georgia and North Dakota. Critics of new voting rules claimed they disenfranchised African-Americans and Native Americans. </p>
<p>While those problems were extensively covered by the press, less attention was paid to another problem that can affect voter turnout: the availability of foreign-language ballots.</p>
<p>Lack of access to non-English ballots can be an <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2647557">obstacle to voting for immigrants</a>. Simply put, if voters can’t understand the ballot, they may not vote.</p>
<p>That’s why the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/voting-rights/voting-rights-determination-file.html">Voting Rights Act</a> has protections for <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/page/file/927236/download">language minorities</a>, defined as “persons who are American Indian, Asian American, Alaskan Natives, or of Spanish heritage.” The act requires local election officials to provide foreign-language election materials in regions that have a certain number of voters with limited English proficiency. <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/crt/legacy/2011/11/04/28CFRPart55.pdf">Election materials</a> can include registration or voting notices, instructions and ballots.</p>
<p>After the 2016 election, the Census Bureau released a list of 263 jurisdictions in 29 states required to offer such <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/12/16/more-voters-will-have-access-to-non-english-ballots-in-the-next-election-cycle/">foreign-language election materials</a>. Those areas included close to 70 million voters with limited English who could vote in the 2018 election. For the first time, Idaho had a jurisdiction required to offer Spanish-language ballots. </p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://sps.boisestate.edu/ipi/gabe-osterhout/">researcher</a> at Boise State University’s Idaho Policy Institute where I study the impact of electoral policy on voter turnout and outcomes. I examined how this new requirement affected voter behavior on Election Day in Idaho. </p>
<p>While my findings seem to be an outlier in the larger context of election language assistance studies, the experience of one county may help broaden our understanding of the impact of foreign-language ballots as the <a href="https://www.idahostatejournal.com/members/growing-hispanic-population-part-of-idaho-s-history/article_f65db386-4315-11e5-b41e-e731d99a9f78.html">Hispanic population continues to grow</a> in Idaho and elsewhere.</p>
<h2>The curious case of Idaho</h2>
<p>Idaho has 80,000 Hispanic voters, 7 percent of Idaho’s <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/fact-sheet/latinos-in-the-2016-election-idaho/">eligible voter population</a>. Lincoln County is a small, rural area in southern Idaho. It has slightly more than <a href="http://www.statsamerica.org/USCP/">5,000 residents, including 1,600 Hispanics</a>, representing 30 percent of the county’s population. Among those that speak Spanish at home, <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml">60 percent do not speak English very well</a>. </p>
<p>I studied <a href="http://lincolncountyid.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Nov-2018-General-election-Unofficial-results-1.pdf">Lincoln County’s turnout</a> before and after the 2018 election to see if election language assistance affected voter behavior in the Latino community.</p>
<p>Compared to previous midterm elections, the county’s 68 percent turnout was higher than in <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/index.html">2014, 2010 and 2006</a>. However, this year’s elections also saw <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665197690/a-boatload-of-ballots-midterm-voter-turnout-hit-50-year-high">higher voter turnout</a> across Idaho and the United States, which makes it difficult to isolate the impact of Spanish-language ballots.</p>
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<p>To dig deeper, I compared voter turnout in Lincoln to three neighboring and demographically similar counties: Minidoka, Jerome and Gooding. The four counties all have Hispanic populations ranging from <a href="https://icha.idaho.gov/menus/idaho_counties.asp">29 percent to 34 percent of the population</a>. But unlike Lincoln, its neighboring counties were not required to offer Spanish-language ballots.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the percentage increase in turnout in 2018 from the previous three midterm years in four counties in Idaho.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I found that Lincoln County’s voter turnout didn’t increase in 2018 from the previous three midterms any more than its neighbors. </p>
<p>Turnout in Lincoln rose <a href="http://lincolncountyid.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Nov-2018-General-election-Unofficial-results-1.pdf">5.4 percent</a> compared to the previous three midterm elections, while <a href="https://www.jeromecountyid.us/DocumentCenter/View/496/General-Election-Results">Jerome</a> rose 5.6 percent, <a href="http://www.minidoka.id.us/DocumentCenter/View/430/Nov-6-2018-General-Unofficial-Abstract">Minidoka</a> rose 8.4 percent, and <a href="https://www.goodingcounty.org/DocumentCenter/View/1071/NOV-6-2018-UNOFFICIAL-RESULTS0001">Gooding</a> rose 9.1 percent. These three counties had higher rates of increased voter turnout compared to recent midterms than Lincoln County did.</p>
<p>Does this mean that Spanish-language ballots don’t affect Hispanic election participation? From this case, it’s hard to tell. </p>
<p>Here’s what we know based on previous research.</p>
<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>Counties that offered language assistance in previous elections have experienced increased minority participation. Since the Voting Rights Act was amended to include minority language assistance in 1975, <a href="https://heinonline.org/hol-cgi-bin/get_pdf.cgi?handle=hein.journals/tfcl12&section=10">Hispanic voter registration doubled over the following 30 years</a>. Language assistance has a significant effect on voting turnout for minority groups, <a href="http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0801553&site=ehost-live">especially for first-generation citizens</a>.</p>
<p>Other studies show that, despite helping increase voter turnout, election language assistance <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00302.x">does not help increase voter registration</a> for people who don’t speak English fluently. This is an important consideration since voter turnout compares the number of ballots cast to the number of registered voters, not the total population.</p>
<p>Overall, studies show that foreign-language assistance, and especially Spanish-language ballots, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23025122">make it easier for immigrant populations</a> to engage in the election process and have increased voter turnout among Hispanic citizens. </p>
<p>The turnout in Lincoln County, Idaho this year seems to be an outlier. This may be due to a few reasons. For one, the small sampling size of a sparsely populated county means that even minor changes in voting behavior can create erratic statistical swings. Further, with 2018 being Lincoln County’s first major election to offer Spanish ballots, we can only look at one data point. Its turnout numbers will become more reliable and significant as future elections take place and offer more data points. As the first bilingual election, it is also possible that some members of the community were not aware of the opportunity to vote in another language.</p>
<p>Lincoln County also has a significantly <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/VoterReg/2018/11/partybycounty.html">lower percentage of registered</a> Democratic voters compared to other regions in the country offering foreign-language ballots. This is important because turnout in 2018 was higher in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/09/04/643686875/democrats-2018-primary-turnout-mirrors-previous-wave-elections">liberal-leaning areas</a>.</p>
<p>There are likely other electoral factors at play that need more consideration, but these findings will perhaps prove helpful, as other Idaho counties <a href="https://www.idahopress.com/news/elections/county-poll-workers-can-assist-voters-in-spanish/article_f9120b0c-da3d-515c-854b-406d4ca39e59.html">will likely be required to offer</a> Spanish-language ballots after the next census as the state’s Hispanic population continues to grow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabe Osterhout does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Voting Rights Act offers language assistance for voters with limited English proficiency. What can we learn from an Idaho county’s experience offering foreign-language ballots?Gabe Osterhout, Research Associate, Idaho Policy Institute, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1066762018-11-13T23:23:19Z2018-11-13T23:23:19ZHow sex and gender influence how we vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244891/original/file-20181110-39548-1yx4l3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michigan Democrat Rashida Tlaib became one of two Muslim women to be elected to Congress in the recent midterm elections. How voters gender-identify has an impact on how they vote. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Leading up to the recent midterm elections in the United States, pundits predicted women voters and candidates would alter the race. </p>
<p>There were, in fact, historic changes as more women than ever gained seats in U.S. Congress, breaking the 100-seat barrier. The winners included two Muslim women and two Native American women, both <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/us/politics/election-history-firsts-blackburn-pressley.html">historic firsts.</a> </p>
<p>However, as we unpack and explain voting patterns, the narrative must move beyond stereotypical and biologically grounded explanations that focus on men and women as voting blocs. Instead, we must ask how gender orientations condition men’s and women’s politics. </p>
<p>Several lessons from our ongoing research are instructive: First, gender strongly conditions the impact of sex on the vote. By “gender,” we mean the extent to which men and women identify with masculinity and femininity as sets of roles, traits and ideals. </p>
<p>The impact of gender on the vote differs from the effect of sex alone, in part because sex does not determine where you place yourself on a masculinity/femininity continuum.</p>
<h2>Why some men are more liberal</h2>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-017-9391-y">Our work on measuring sex and gender in survey research</a>, published last year in <em>Political Behavior</em>, shows that men who do not strongly identify with hypermasculinity are equally or more liberal than women on various issues, from same-sex marriage to social spending. </p>
<p>This implies that moderately masculine men, so to speak, are not in the Republican orbit because they do not share the party’s positions on the issues that defined the 2018 midterms: Immigration, gun rights, Brett Kavanaugh and the backlash against so-called “identity politics.” </p>
<p>In fact, all respondents whose gender self-placement veers from the most masculine or feminine endpoints of the scale tend to be more politically moderate than the hyper-masculine and hyper-feminine identifiers. </p>
<p>This means that highly feminine women — those who possess very traditional gender identities — are more conservative on some issues, including workplace discrimination, and are indeed open to the Republican platform.</p>
<p>The general message here is not novel in its recognition of multiple and cross-cutting identities and their importance to voting. Race, socioeconomic status and religion, for example, are other important influences on the vote.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244892/original/file-20181110-116820-vj5o7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244892/original/file-20181110-116820-vj5o7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244892/original/file-20181110-116820-vj5o7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244892/original/file-20181110-116820-vj5o7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244892/original/file-20181110-116820-vj5o7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244892/original/file-20181110-116820-vj5o7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244892/original/file-20181110-116820-vj5o7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Neither men nor women vote in blocs, and gender identity helps explain voting patterns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mirah Curzer/Unsplash</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What is novel about our research is that it identifies the patterns from an overlooked aspect of identity — gender. Sex and gender tend to be treated as synonymous both in “real life” and in research. Disentangling them is revealing the ways that our biology affects our behaviour less than previously thought.</p>
<h2>Gender not a factor for some</h2>
<p>The second big message coming from our research is that we must stop automatically treating gender as a “first-order” or “meta” identity that eclipses all other identities. For some voters, gender is not a strong pull on the vote or on political attitudes. Our <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/digging-deeper-into-the-gender-gap-gender-salience-as-a-moderating-factor-in-political-attitudes/860EA67F332FC634CA9931CC3A7B6B55">research published last year</a> in the <em>Canadian Journal of Political Science</em> finds that there are few male-female gaps in attitudes, and presumably voting, among people for whom gender is not important. </p>
<p>It’s only among those for whom gender is highly salient (and this is the case for a lot of people) that sex and gender have the potential to create gaps in attitudes and votes, producing a chasm in the electorate. </p>
<p>In the context of the 2018 midterms, a key observation is that sex and gender are more prominent in some campaigns than others.</p>
<p>Sometimes gender-based issues are at the top of the agenda, or high proportions of women candidates run. This can cue voters to think about gender issues when making their vote choices, a process called priming. </p>
<p>This helps explain the large partisan gaps between men and women and the unprecedented showing of women candidates in 2018. A record number of women candidates ran and won, and media, think tanks, researchers and political parties spent a lot of time discussing the anticipated “pink wave.”</p>
<h2>#MeToo movement in play</h2>
<p>What’s more, voters went to the polls soon after a Supreme Court confirmation process fought nearly exclusively over allegations that nominee <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brett-kavanaugh-sexual-assault-misconduct-allegations-2018-9">Brett Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted several women</a>. And this came after a year of intensive public action by the #MeToo movement, which has illuminated the widespread sexual violence and harassment faced by women.</p>
<p>It’s clear the electoral environment contributes to the politicization of social divisions. When campaigns focus on other issues or other types of candidates, different electoral divides define the vote, and sex and gender may take a back seat to partisanship, race or religion.</p>
<p>Traditionally, we talk about women voters as if they are unique and act as a bloc. But not all women vote the same, and women don’t uniformly feel the same about issues, parties or candidates over time. </p>
<p>Context matters. It activates identities in the minds of voters, and campaigns provide cues for the types of considerations that will influence voters at the ballot box. The 2018 midterm election campaign activated sex, but it also activated gender, and the strength of a voter’s masculinity and femininity no doubt had a discernible impact on how they cast their ballots.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRCC)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Bittner receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRCC).</span></em></p>Men and women are not unified voting blocs. We must consider how voters identify themselves in terms of gender to truly understand how women and men think about politics.Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, Associate Professor, Political Studies; Director, Queen's Institute of Intergovernmental Relations; Director, Canadian Opinion Research Archive, Queen's University, OntarioAmanda Bittner, Associate Professor, Memorial University of NewfoundlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1057832018-11-09T11:46:28Z2018-11-09T11:46:28ZAmericans got to vote on lots of energy measures in 2018 – and mostly rejected them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244660/original/file-20181108-74766-adwwou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in Nevada voted to boost their state's renewable energy target.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Worlds-Largest-Solar-Plant-/eab310e2ebba43b0ae4141503e1ff3cb/42/0">AP Photo/Chris Carlson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Americans in at least seven states voted on <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/4-states-have-ballot-measures-that-could-shape-u-s-climate-policy/">ballot initiatives</a> during the 2018 midterm elections. These measures targeted everything from raising targets for the share of electricity drawn from renewable energy to charging a tax on carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Campaigns to defeat these <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Energy_on_the_ballot#By_year">initiatives related to energy and climate policy</a>, financed heavily by <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18069940/election-results-2018-energy-carbon-fracking-ballot-initiatives">big oil and gas companies</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18069940/election-results-2018-energy-carbon-fracking-ballot-initiatives">utilities</a>, substantially outspent proponents. They prevailed in nearly every case. At the same time, however, voters elected many politicians who had vowed to take action to reduce the country’s carbon footprint. Those leaders could potentially bring on the same kinds of policies through other means.</p>
<p>Like most <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TxYfplkAAAAJ&hl=en">environmental economists</a>, I believe that strong policies can help rein in climate change. And, I believe that market-based policies like a carbon tax are the best way to do that. But following the 2018 midterms, it might be the case that advocates of these policies will need to stick to backing politicians who will implement them directly rather than trying to effect change with ballot initiatives.</p>
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<h2>No national leadership</h2>
<p>Since climate change is a global issue, it may seem odd that American states, counties and cities are forging their own policies to address it. In other countries, national authorities typically take the lead on this priority.</p>
<p>But the federal government has failed to address climate change even though the Environmental Protection Agency has effectively been obligated to regulate greenhouse gases for the past decade due to the <a href="https://www.edf.org/overview-epa-endangerment-finding">Supreme Court’s “endangerment” finding</a> that those emissions are pollutants that must be regulated under the Clean Air Act.</p>
<p>After Congress failed in its attempt to pass comprehensive climate legislation during former President Barack Obama’s administration, he bypassed lawmakers and relied on an executive order to establish his <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-things-that-you-should-know-about-the-epa-clean-power-plan-45677">Clean Power Plan</a>, which would have regulated carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/15/politics/trump-climate-change/index.html">President Donald Trump</a>, who recently said of climate change that he doesn’t “know that it’s manmade” and that he believes it will “change back again,” has basically ended all federal climate action by <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-tears-down-us-climate-policy-but-america-could-lose-out-as-a-result-75391">dismantling the Clean Power Plan</a> and deciding to pull out of the Paris climate deal.</p>
<p>Many states are filling this climate leadership vacuum. California, for example, is committed to becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-aims-to-become-carbon-free-by-2045-is-that-feasible-102390">completely carbon-neutral by 2045</a>.</p>
<p>But not all states are moving quickly enough in this direction, climate activists fear. Voter-driven initiatives are one solution to this problem. These measures are proliferating based on a simple premise: Perhaps giving citizens a say at the ballot box will force state policymakers and legislators to adopt regulations that can meaningfully and swiftly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. </p>
<h2>Climate policies</h2>
<p>As an economist, I see pollution as a classic case of market failure. That is, unless the authorities regulate carbon pollution, the market will produce too much of it. Because that excess pollution will contribute to climate change, it will ultimately end up damaging the economy.</p>
<p>Furthermore, there is also a strong economic argument to be made in favor of policies like Washington’s carbon tax. Some economists call these types of policies “<a href="https://ieamblog.com/2017/10/06/market-based-environmental-policies-providing-incentives-that-minimize-costs/">market-based policies</a>,” in contrast to “command-and-control” policies like <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx">renewable portfolio standards</a> – state mandates that make utilities get at least a defined proportion of their electricity from renewable energy like solar and wind power.</p>
<p>For a given pollution reduction goal, a market-based policy, economists generally agree, can achieve it at a lower cost than a command-and-control policy can – as long as that the market-based policy is sufficiently strict. </p>
<p>There are two main ways that Massachusetts, New York and other states are already trying reduce their carbon footprints to correct for this problem. The first is a market-based policy: <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-cap-and-trade-systems-offer-evidence-that-carbon-pricing-can-work-101428">cap and trade</a>, otherwise known as emissions trading systems. Also known as emissions trading systems, this approach caps the total emissions allowed at a set level and then allocate emissions permits to factories, utilities and other polluters either for free or through auctions.</p>
<p>The other is through stronger renewable portfolio standards. Once states reach a benchmark, they can set more ambitious goals. When the authorities fail to do that or take other steps to deal with climate change and protect the environment from the risks tied to fossil fuels, one workaround is to have the electorate weigh in. </p>
<p>That doesn’t always work either.</p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://www.kgun9.com/news/political/elections-local/voters-reject-renewable-energy-requirements-in-prop-127">Arizona voters rejected</a> a measure on their 2018 ballots that would have increased their renewable energy target to 50 percent from 15 percent by <a href="https://www.kgun9.com/election-results/?_ga=2.223329051.1270665178.1541684220-1114447215.1541684220">an overwhelming margin</a>.</p>
<p>A similar measure did <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/11/07/duel-in-the-desert-matching-rps-initiative-passes-in-nevada-and-fails-in-arizona/">prevail in Nevada</a>. But before it can go into effect, voters will have to approve it a second time in 2020. </p>
<h2>Taxing carbon</h2>
<p>Perhaps most notably, voters in Washington declined to make their state the nation’s first to <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/20/17584376/carbon-tax-congress-republicans-cost-economy">tax carbon dioxide emissions</a>. </p>
<p>This ballot initiative, which would have introduced a carbon “fee,” failed to garner support from a majority of Washington voters. Those voters had <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09112016/washington-state-carbon-tax-i-732-ballot-measure">rejected another carbon tax measure in 2016</a> as well. </p>
<p>Not all energy-related taxes flopped. Portland, Oregon’s voters chose to create a new 1 percent tax on the gross receipts of all large retailers. The revenue it raises will establish a <a href="https://www.opb.org/news/article/portland-oregon-clean-energy-gross-receipts-tax-result/">clean energy fund</a>, to be used to meet the city’s emissions reduction goals. </p>
<p>Other efforts to regulate fossil fuels at the ballot box also had <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/midterms-2018-mixed-results-for-the-renewable-energy-agenda#gs.W3tKvd8">mixed results</a>. Florida voters amended their state constitution to <a href="https://www.wfla.com/news/politics/florida-passes-amendment-9-banning-both-offshore-oil-drilling-and-indoor-vaping/1577495572">ban offshore oil drilling</a>, reinforcing a prohibition already on the state’s books. And Californians bucked an effort to <a href="https://elections.calmatters.org/2018/california-ballot-measures/proposition-6-gas-tax-repeal/">repeal a gas tax hike</a>.</p>
<p>But Coloradans declined a chance to force their state to locate new <a href="https://theconversation.com/coloradans-reject-restrictions-on-drilling-distances-from-homes-and-schools-106511">oil and gas projects at least 2,500 feet</a> from occupied buildings like homes, schools and hospitals. </p>
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<h2>An alternative</h2>
<p>What can be more effective than winning specific changes at the ballot box? Electing leaders inclined to make those changes once they’re in office. And several newly elected governors have promised to support policies that will reduce carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Colorado Governor-elect Jared Polis, for example, backs shifting his state to <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27092018/election-2018-governor-races-renewable-energy-wisconsin-maine-michigan-colorado-new-mexico-nevada">100 percent reliance on renewable energy</a> for electricity by 2040. So do many of his peers, including <a href="https://twitter.com/jbpritzker/status/971796579647721474">J.B. Pritzker</a> in Illinois, <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18071770/midterm-election-results-governor-climate-change">Tony Evers</a> in Wisconsin, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/24/democrats-2018-energy-climate-change-873730">Gretchen Whitmer</a> in Michigan and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAdvUVtTKB0&feature=youtu.be">Stephen Sisolak</a> in Nevada.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.janetmills.com/issues/environment">Janet Mills</a> in Maine aims to cut her state’s carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2030. <a href="http://scorecard.lcv.org/moc/michelle-lujan-grisham">Michelle Lujan Grisham</a> in New Mexico consistently voted for environmental legislation while serving in the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>Change at the federal level may remain elusive for now. But many of the new members of Congress who won their first elections in 2018, including New Yorker <a href="https://www.ocasio2018.com/issues">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a>, <a href="https://castenforcongress.com/about/">Sean Casten</a> of Illinois and Virginian <a href="https://twitter.com/elaineluriava/status/1021506237362450433">Elaine Luria</a>, support phasing out oil, gas and coal consumption. And the Democratic Party plans to restore a <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-plan-to-reinstate-house-climate-committee">special committee focused on climate change</a> once it formally takes control of the House.</p>
<p>These new lawmakers will be poised to do more about climate change than their predecessors once there is a president who makes it a priority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garth Heutel receives funding from Alliance for Market Solutions.</span></em></p>But many new governors and members of Congress intend to take action on climate change.Garth Heutel, Associate Professor of Economics, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065952018-11-09T11:43:15Z2018-11-09T11:43:15ZHow many women does it take to change a broken Congress?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244624/original/file-20181108-74775-byqwh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There were 84 women in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018 - and there are 106 in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.democraticleader.gov/newsroom/71117-2/">Office of Nancy Pelosi</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The new United States Congress has <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/18/record-number-women-in-congress/">127 women</a> in the House and Senate, including two Muslim-American women, two Native American women and a 29-year-old. </p>
<p>Women make up nearly a quarter of the 435-member House of Representatives – a record high – and up from 84 women in the previous House.</p>
<p>The female newcomers will make waves in government – and not just because women legislators often <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-has-a-sexual-assault-problem-that-only-women-can-fix-101366">bring greater attention</a> to wage gaps, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1017/S002238160808033X">family leave policy</a>, sexual harassment, child abuse and other critical issues that disproportionately affect women. </p>
<p>As scholars who study political leadership, we believe more women will be also good for Congress for a more fundamental reason: They may just get a broken system working again. </p>
<h2>Women try to collaborate</h2>
<p>Washington has been ferociously polarized since the 2016 presidential election, but Republicans and Democrats across the nation have been <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2014/06/6-12-2014-Political-Polarization-Release.pdf">moving</a> further apart ideologically since the 1990s. </p>
<p>There used to be overlap between the views of Democrats and Republicans, at least on some issues. Now, there is almost none.</p>
<p>Ninety-two percent of Republicans now sit to the right of the median Democrat, while 94 percent of Democrats sit to the left of the median Republican, the nonpartisan <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2014/06/6-12-2014-Political-Polarization-Release.pdf">Pew Research Center reports</a>. </p>
<p>In Congress, the two parties thwart each other’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/05/house-problem-solvers-caucus-has-solved-few-problems-bipartisan-critics-allege/">legislation</a> and <a href="http://faculty.virginia.edu/haidtlab/mft/GHN.final.JPSP.2008.12.09.pdf">demonize</a> their political opponents as unpatriotic or untruthful.</p>
<p>Americans now see the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans as more extreme than those dividing urban and rural residents or black and white people, <a href="http://www.people-press.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2017/12/12-19-2017-race-relations-release.pdf">Pew surveys show</a>. </p>
<p>The 127 women in both houses of Congress – while overwhelmingly Democratic – have the potential to work across the partisan divide. </p>
<p>Numerous studies on gender and problem-solving <a href="https://www.heinz.cmu.edu/faculty-research/profiles/babcock-lindac">show</a> that women are often bridge builders, collaborating to find the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1179/030801811X13013181961473">solutions to tricky problems</a>.</p>
<p>Our research confirms these findings. <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/amj.2016.0594">In one 2017 study</a> on leadership styles, we found that women are more likely to use inclusive “both/and” thinking, meaning they see conflict and tensions as opportunities for input rather than problems. </p>
<p>Men are more likely to adopt “either/or” thinking – attitudes that advance their own agendas and denigrate those of the other side. </p>
<h2>Women build bridges</h2>
<p>Women have played this role in Congress before. </p>
<p>When the federal government shut down for 16 days in 2013 over a budget impasse, for example, it was a group of five female senators – three Republicans and two Democrats – who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/us/senate-women-lead-in-effort-to-find-accord.html">broke</a> the stalemate. Together, they launched a bipartisan effort and negotiated a deal to end the budget showdown. </p>
<p>“The women are taking over,” joked the late Arizona Sen. John McCain.</p>
<p>These days, it seems, McCain’s commentary is less of a joke than a political need.</p>
<p>Numerous studies on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1179/030801811X13013181961473">teamwork</a> show that groups with women in them <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6004/686">function better</a>, in part because women are more likely than men to build social connections that enable conflict resolution.</p>
<p>In other words, female workers in organizations become friends, mentors and helpful colleagues, which builds the trust necessary for solving problems.</p>
<p>Women are not the only people who work like this. In large organizations, minorities tend to seek each other out and form <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0001839212461141?journalCode=asqa">support networks</a> that span hierarchy, job description and even political divides. </p>
<p>Men can build bridges too, of course. Gender does not dictate personality or decision-making style. </p>
<p>McCain, for example, was known for his bipartisan legislative efforts. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/1991-01136-001">research</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/21/womens-march-protests-history-suffragettes-iceland-poland">history</a> show that women leaders collaborate more often – and better. </p>
<h2>A human rights system based on consensus</h2>
<p>Eleanor Roosevelt, an outspoken human rights advocate and wife of U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, offers a classic example of such behavior. </p>
<p>She led the United Nations working group that drafted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights after World War II. That landmark <a href="http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">1948 document</a> recognized, for the first time in history, that all people on the planet are guaranteed certain rights, regardless of religion, race or political creed.</p>
<p>The declaration, which was <a href="http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">approved</a> by 48 of the 58 countries then in the United Nations, launched the contemporary human rights movement that overcame dictatorship in Latin America, isolated apartheid-era South Africa, enshrined the rights of LGBTQ people worldwide and, today, works to <a href="http://www.un.org/esa/population/migration/index.html">protect refugees and asylum-seekers</a>. </p>
<p>These lasting achievements did not come about because Roosevelt strong-armed other countries. </p>
<p>Instead, the American <a href="http://www.un.org/en/sections/universal-declaration/history-document/index.html">first lady</a> famously worked to keep her UN colleagues focused on the urgency of devising and passing the declaration, despite criticism, doubt, cultural difference, ego trips and distractions. </p>
<p>After the agreement, Roosevelt insisted that her leadership subcommittee elect a new chair to show the world what effective democratic process looks like.</p>
<h2>Women craft better deals</h2>
<p>Women typically adopt more democratic leadership styles, seeking out more <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/1991-01136-001">participation from everyone in a group</a>. The evidence shows that solutions crafted that way are longer-lasting. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/interactive/womens-participation-in-peace-processes">Council on Foreign Relations</a> has found, for example, that peace talks with women at the negotiating table were more likely to reach an agreement – and that the deals passed were more likely to endure over time.</p>
<p>That kind of inclusive deal-making could change the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>Congress often swings wildly on major policy issues as political winds change, with the new majority party shredding the partisan advances of a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-rolling-back-obama-rules/?utm_term=.a3af9eded2b7">previous</a> administration. </p>
<p>Collaborative, bipartisan legislation allows for more durable progress on issues like health care, immigration and the economy – all sure to be a focus for the next Congress.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243341/original/file-20181031-122177-b9jhps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243341/original/file-20181031-122177-b9jhps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243341/original/file-20181031-122177-b9jhps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243341/original/file-20181031-122177-b9jhps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243341/original/file-20181031-122177-b9jhps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243341/original/file-20181031-122177-b9jhps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243341/original/file-20181031-122177-b9jhps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">California Republican Young Kim continues to be in a very tight race against Democratic philanthropist Gil Cisneros.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/California-at-a-Crossroads-Changing-Orange-County/d1feb32251324cf595f29bf4bf360387/2/0">AP Photo/Chris Carlson)</a></span>
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<h2>Women in a polarized government</h2>
<p>But Congress may not work any better with 127 women than it does with the 109 in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/115th_United_States_Congress">previous Congress</a>.</p>
<p>Lawmakers are elected to represent their constituents’ interests. And with American society so extremely <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/05/poll-americans-divided-party-lines-243466">polarized</a>, a two-party system discourages collaboration. </p>
<p>Many of the newly elected women in Congress additionally came to power on strong, oppositional platforms – promises to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/27/books/review/rebecca-traister-good-and-mad-soraya-chemaly-rage-becomes-her.html">fight fiercely</a> against the problems they see in American society. </p>
<p>If Congress’s newest members really want to make an impact – passing laws that aren’t undone after the next election – they will have to do more than push their own agendas. They can work together.</p>
<p>Given what research shows about female leadership, more women could push Washington in that direction.</p>
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<p><a href="http://aom.org/">Wendy K. Smith is a member of the Academy of Management</a></p>
<footer>The academy is a funding partner of The Conversation US.</footer>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy K. Smith is an Academy of Management scholar.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Babcock-Lumish is the founder of the leadership consultancy Islay Consulting. She is active in Democratic Party politics. </span></em></p>Research shows that women work more collaboratively than men in groups and create more inclusive solutions to thorny problems. More women in Washington could bridge America’s yawning partisan divide.Wendy K. Smith, Professor of Business and Leadership, University of DelawareTerry Babcock-Lumish, Visiting Scholar in Public Policy, University of DelawareLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1059302018-11-08T19:12:30Z2018-11-08T19:12:30ZThe 116th Congress has more women and people of color than ever – but there’s still room to improve<p>Women and people of color made substantial gains in the 2018 midterm elections toward diversifying the House and the Senate. </p>
<p>For the past three and a half decades, my co-author, G. William Domhoff, and I have been monitoring diversity in what sociologist C. Wright Mills called “the power elite” – those in the most influential positions in the corporate, political and military spheres. </p>
<p>We’ve found that, since the 1950s, <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538103371/Diversity-in-the-Power-Elite-Ironies-and-Unfulfilled-Promises-Third-Edition">corporations, political bodies and the military have diversified</a>, but at a glacial pace and in different ways. Women, for example, made it into the corporate and political elites well before they were allowed to join the military elite.</p>
<p>The elections for the 116th Congress led to meaningful increases in diversity, especially among women, Latinos and African-Americans. The media have made a great deal of the gains in diversity – for example, this election saw the first two Native American women elected to Congress, as well as the first two Muslim women. </p>
<p>Let’s put these examples into the context of historical changes in diversity in Congress.</p>
<h2>Women in Congress</h2>
<p>In 1956, the year Mills’s classic book, “The Power Elite,” was published, there were <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538103371/Diversity-in-the-Power-Elite-Ironies-and-Unfulfilled-Promises-Third-Edition">17 women in the House</a>. Margaret Chase Smith, a Republican from Maine, was the only woman in the Senate. </p>
<p>By the year 2000, the number in the House had increased, slowly but surely, to 58, and the number in the Senate was up to nine. </p>
<p>The single biggest jump came as a result of the 1992 election, when the 102nd Congress went from 6.7 to 10.8 percent women in the House, and from 2 to 7 percent in the Senate. That’s why 1992 is often referred to as “<a href="https://history.house.gov/Exhibitions-and-Publications/WIC/Historical-Essays/Assembling-Amplifying-Ascending/Women-Decade/">the Year of the Woman</a>.” </p>
<p>Since the year 2000, the number of women in the House and the Senate has increased steadily. This year’s election for the 116th Congress continued the trend. It provided the second-biggest bounce ever in the House, from 89 to at least 98. (As I write this, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/how-did-women-candidates-do-2018-midterms-n932801">10 races</a> are still too close to call.) That’s a jump from 20.5 to 23.0 percent – not quite as big a jump as in 1992, but close. </p>
<p>In the Senate, the number increased by one or two, depending on <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mississippi-senate-race-heads-to-a-runoff-1541586600">a run-off election that will take place in Mississippi</a>.</p>
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<h2>What about people of color?</h2>
<p>African-Americans, Latinos and Asian-Americans have been much more likely to be elected to the House than the Senate. Election to the Senate requires an appeal to voters throughout the state, not just in the district in which one lives, and that makes it more challenging because the districts are often more distinctive ethnically.</p>
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<p>All three groups were at their peak in the Senate in the 115th Congress, with four Latinos, three African-Americans and three Asian-Americans. The only change that might result from this election is if Mike Espy, an African-American, wins that run-off election in Mississippi. </p>
<p>In the House, Africans-Americans made up 10.7 percent of the Representatives, Latinos made up 9.4 percent and Asians made up 3 percent. As a result of this election, the percentages of African-Americans and Latinos will increase slightly, while the percentage of Asian-Americans will stay about the same. </p>
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<p>It’s worth keeping in mind that African-Americans make up about 13 percent of the total population. Latinos make up about 16 percent of the total population, and Asian-Americans make up slightly less than 6 percent. All three groups, therefore, have been historically underrepresented in Congress, but they are better represented in the House than the Senate.</p>
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<p>The drop in the number of white men in the Senate and the House has been steady and dramatic. The decline in white male representation has been gradual but considerable – from 95 percent in both the House and the Senate in the 90th Congress to 60 percent of the House and 71 percent of the Senate. White men make up only about 38 percent of the larger population, so even with their losses over time, they are still very much overrepresented.</p>
<p>Republicans in Congress continue to be, for the most part, a party of white men. About 41 percent of the Democrats but 88 percent of the Republicans in the House are white men. In the Senate, they make up about 63 percent of the Democrats but 82 percent of the Republicans.</p>
<p>There is a bit more diversity than I have indicated, as some of those white men are Jewish or openly LGBT, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/sharice-davids-and-deb-haaland-native-american-women/index.html">two of the newly elected women are Native Americans</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/first-muslim-women-congress/index.html">two are Muslims</a>. Again, however, almost all of this added diversity was in the Democratic, not the Republican, party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richie Zweigenhaft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the next Congress, white men will make up 60 percent of the House and 71 percent of the Senate – a historic low.Richie Zweigenhaft, Professor of Psychology, Guilford CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1061992018-11-08T11:42:41Z2018-11-08T11:42:41ZHow the ‘wave of women’ now in Congress could turn the #MeToo movement into concrete action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251316/original/file-20181218-27773-vuevbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The women elected to the 2019 congress pose for a photo.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives#/media/File:House_Democratic_Women_of_the_113th_Congress_(8342801079).jpg">Nancy Pelosi/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2018 midterm elections represented the first electoral referendum of the #MeToo era. </p>
<p>More than <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/potential-candidate-summary-2018">500 women</a> ran in primaries for federal office, a pipeline that ultimately led to a <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/26/congress-new-members-women-1014696">record</a> number of women taking office this month.</p>
<p>Even so, it also reveals how far women are from achieving parity in politics – they hold <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/12/6/18119733/congress-diversity-women-election-good-news">a little more than a fifth of seats</a> in the House and Senate. For comparison, that’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/11/middleeast/iraq-elections-gender-quota/index.html">less than in Iraq</a>, where the post-Saddam Hussein <a href="https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/pnorris/Acrobat/Kellerman%20c06%20proofs.pdf">Constitution sets a 25 percent minimum</a> for female representation in the national assembly.</p>
<p>In a way, it reflects the ways in which the #MeToo movement, for its many achievements, has mostly stalled at the federal level. After more than a year of <a href="https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2018/10/212801/me-too-movement-history-timeline-year-weinstein">#MeToo headlines</a>, Congress has not passed any harassment-related legislation beyond <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/12/house-senate-agree-anti-sexual-harassment-bill/2295234002/">cleaning up</a> its own internal process for handling complaints.</p>
<p>With Democrats now in control of the House but not the Senate, the question is whether Congress will finally roll up its sleeves to tackle the root causes of the crisis.</p>
<h2>Crisis management</h2>
<p>In many ways, the #MeToo crisis is similar to the financial collapse of 2008. </p>
<p>That crisis was a <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/financial-crisis">slow-moving train wreck</a>, the accumulation of years of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2011/feb/17/inside-job-financial-crisis-bankers-verdicts">morally bankrupt conduct</a> that companies were willing to overlook in favor of what appeared to be larger business concerns. </p>
<p>As I argued in a recent <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170764">law review</a> article, the #MeToo crisis resulted from a similar slow buildup – companies failed to adequately respond to workplace harassment, permitting harassers to continue to rise up the ranks, while victims saw their careers sidelined.</p>
<p>But in both cases, it was about more than just bad people making bad choices and covering their tracks. Business decisions, like board games, are constrained by the rules of the game. If players figure out a way to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3016624">“hack” the rules</a> or decide there is more to be gained by breaking them, their behavior probably won’t change without changing the rules.<br>
Just as brokers peddling subprime loans were enabled by bad business practices and regulatory gaps, employer indifference to harassment was <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2518520">made possible</a> by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/opinion/harassment-employees-laws-.html?module=inline">out-of-date</a> harassment laws that gave companies a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2857238">free pass</a>. </p>
<p>The #MeToo crisis also raises concerns about how companies handle discrimination complaints and whistleblowers – since internal processes for doing so are often the same as for harassment.</p>
<h2>Diverging paths</h2>
<p>In some ways, though, the #MeToo crisis succeeded where the response to the financial crisis fell short. </p>
<p>Consumers who lost their homes to foreclosure never saw much in the way of justice – though <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/04/28/news/companies/bankers-prison/index.html">a few</a> bankers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/magazine/only-one-top-banker-jail-financial-crisis.html">went to jail</a>, the biggest fish did not. #MeToo, by contrast, brought the chickens home to roost for <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/world/from-weinstein-lauer-timeline-2017-sexual-harassment-scandals/qBKJmUSZRJqgOzeB9yN2JK/">countless men</a> with a track record of harassment. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the financial crisis produced more political scrutiny into the systemic factors that caused the problem. Congress held <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg55764/html/CHRG-110hhrg55764.htm">numerous hearings</a> on its root causes. Lawmakers also created a <a href="https://fcic.law.stanford.edu/about/history">commission</a>. These efforts culminated in the <a href="https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2010/07/07/summary-of-dodd-frank-financial-regulation-legislation/">Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act</a> and the creation of the <a href="https://www.consumerfinance.gov">Consumer Financial Protection Bureau</a>.</p>
<p>By contrast, the #MeToo movement has produced no meaningful federal legislation and not even a hearing – unless you count the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/national/wp/2018/09/27/kavanaugh-hearing-transcript/">Brett Kavanaugh confirmation</a>. Current <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/6406/text">legislative</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/6406/text">proposals</a> are mostly focused on whether employers can keep harassment secret. </p>
<p>It’s fair to regulate the cover-up. But eventually, we’ll need to tackle the crime.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251318/original/file-20181218-27779-l2ikd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251318/original/file-20181218-27779-l2ikd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251318/original/file-20181218-27779-l2ikd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251318/original/file-20181218-27779-l2ikd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251318/original/file-20181218-27779-l2ikd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251318/original/file-20181218-27779-l2ikd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251318/original/file-20181218-27779-l2ikd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1955, there were significantly fewer women in congress than in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Dist-of-/5ee32c6a067d466abdc60df612a87740/7/0">AP Photo/Bill Allen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Time for CSI Congress?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/trump-subpoena/575086/">Political commentators</a> have noted that Democratic control over the House will mean more oversight of the executive branch – and in particular, investigation of ethics violations and the president’s own conduct and financial dealings.</p>
<p>But committees can also hold hearings to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/congressional-hearings/about">gather information</a> from experts and inform legislation. As hard as it may be to imagine after the explosive Kavanaugh hearings, they need not be bitterly partisan. </p>
<p>Here, Congress could take a cue from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, which reconvened its task force on workplace harassment over the summer. I testified at the <a href="https://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/task_force/harassment/6-11-18.cfm">meeting</a> and was struck by the good faith efforts of all stakeholders – including businesses, a union representative and lawyers from both sides – to examine the issues in depth and assess different legislative proposals. </p>
<p>The task force itself also represents an admirable model of bipartisan cooperation, co-led by <a href="https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/legal-and-compliance/employment-law/pages/lipnic-eeoc-acting-chair.aspx">Acting Chair Victoria Lipnic</a>, a Republican, and <a href="https://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/feldblum.cfm">Chai Feldblum</a>, an appointee of President Barack Obama. </p>
<p>In separate press conferences after the election, both President Donald Trump and potential soon-to-be-speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/11/07/watch_live_president_trump_responds_to_2018_midterms.html">some hope</a> that they could <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-holds-news-conference-after-democrats-take-the-house-today-11-07-2018-live-updates/">work together</a> on certain issues – though #MeToo does not seem to be among them. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, it’s worth at least trying to extract #MeToo from the culture wars and treat it like a serious policy issue. As odd as it sounds, we should treat it more like a financial crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106199/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth C. Tippett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a year of headlines and ousted CEOs, Congress has yet to pass a single piece of legislation on sexual harassment – let alone hold a hearing. That may change as lawmakers get to work in 2019.Elizabeth C. Tippett, Associate Professor, School of Law, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065052018-11-08T11:42:04Z2018-11-08T11:42:04ZThe other 2018 midterm wave: A historic 10-point jump in turnout among young people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244454/original/file-20181107-74772-1lupvle.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nine months after Parkland, students like David Hogg have joined the youth voter wave.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Parkland-Voters/d9284b7a5b094ea9a49a79f62638f123/1/0">AP Photo/John Raoux</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voter turnout among 18 to 29-year-olds in the 2018 midterm elections was <a href="https://civicyouth.org/young-people-dramatically-increase-their-turnout-31-percent-shape-2018-midterm-elections/">31 percent</a>, according to a preliminary estimate by <a href="https://civicyouth.org/about-circle/">The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement</a> at Tufts University.</p>
<p>That’s the highest youth turnout my colleagues and I have observed since we started collecting data in 1994. It’s also <a href="https://civicyouth.org/quick-facts/2018-election-center/">a major increase</a> from turnout in the 2014 midterms, which was 21 percent.</p>
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<p>Young people showed decisive support for liberal candidates and ideas. About 67 percent of young people supported Democratic House candidates, compared to just 32 percent for Republican candidates. This 35-point gap is even larger than their preference toward Democrats in 2008, when President Barack Obama was first elected. </p>
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<p>This preference no doubt helped some Democratic candidates in states such as Wisconsin, Montana and Nevada. </p>
<p>For example, Senator Jon Tester of Montana won his reelection by a narrow margin of less than 6,000 votes. Young Montanans, by favoring him by 67 percent to 28 percent, gave him a relative vote advantage of over 25,000 votes. If young Montanans voted like older Montanans did on Tuesday, Montana would have a Republican Senator today. </p>
<p>In many ways, this election cycle showed how different groups can create diverse paths to political engagement. It shows in the numbers, and importantly, in young people’s faces. Young people should be feeling powerful and hopeful that they can in fact exercise their votes to affect American politics. </p>
<p>Going back 40 years, young voters have a reputation of <a href="https://civicyouth.org/quick-facts/youth-voting">not showing up to the polls</a>, especially in midterm elections. So how do we explain this year’s enthusiasm?</p>
<p>This fall, my colleagues and I conducted two large-scale national surveys of 2,087 Americans ages 18 to 24 to document and understand what Gen Zs are thinking, feeling and doing when it comes to politics. </p>
<p>Here’s what we found.</p>
<h2>All signs pointed to wave of young people</h2>
<p>The proportion of young people who joined protests and marches tripled since the fall of 2016, from <a href="http://civicyouth.org/circle-poll-so-much-for-slacktivism-as-youth-translate-online-engagement-to-offline-political-action/">5 percent to 15 percent</a>. Participation was especially high among young people who are <a href="https://civicyouth.org/circle-poll-youth-engagement-in-the-2018-election">registered as Democrats</a>. </p>
<p>We also found that young people were <a href="https://civicyouth.org/circle-poll-youth-engagement-in-the-2018-election/">paying attention to politics</a> more than they had in 2016. In 2016, about 26 percent of young people said they were paying at least some attention to the November elections. This fall, the proportion of youth who reported that they were paying attention to the midterm races rose to 46 percent. </p>
<p>It’s clear that more young people were actively engaged in politics this year than 2016. </p>
<p>Why? </p>
<h2>Cynicism and worry aren’t obstacles</h2>
<p>To learn more about what might was motivating Generation Z to vote, we asked survey participants to rate their level of agreement with three statements. </p>
<p>“I worry that older generations haven’t thought about young people’s future.” </p>
<p>“I’m more cynical about politics than I was 2 years ago.” </p>
<p>“The outcomes of the 2018 elections will make a significant impact to everyday issues involving the government in my community, such as schools and police.”</p>
<p>In this year’s survey, we found that young people who felt cynical were far more likely to say they would vote. Other research has found that cynicism about politics can <a href="http://www.calstatela.edu/sites/default/files/users/u2276/opdycke_segura_vasquez_essay5.pdf">suppress or drive electoral engagement</a> depending on the contexts.</p>
<p>Among young people who said “yes” to all three of those questions, more than half – 52 percent – said they were extremely likely to vote. Among young people who said “no” to all three of those questions, only 22 percent were extremely likely to vote.</p>
<p>Our poll results suggest political involvement in this generation is far above the levels we usually see among youth, especially in midterm election cycles. </p>
<p>In fact, almost 3 out of 4 youth – 72 percent – said they believe that dramatic change could occur in this country if people banded together. </p>
<p>This year’s voting surge by young people did not happen overnight. Nor was it driven by a single issue like gun violence, though <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/12/march-for-our-lives-to-embark-on-12-day-national-tour-ahead-of-election-day/">Parkland no doubt played</a> a very important role by activating many young people and voter engagement groups. </p>
<p>Our research shows that Gen Z is aware of the challenges ahead and they are hopeful and actively involving themselves and friends in politics. Beyond almost any doubt, young people have gotten involved and felt ready to make a change in American politics – and so they did.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Oct. 19, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg receives non-partisan research funding from Ford Foundation, Democracy Fund, and McCormick Foundation. She is affiliated with Democracy Fund, TurboVote Challenge, Nonprofit VOTE and Generation Citizen but is not paid by any of these organizations.</span></em></p>A survey shows the newest generation on the voting block is extremely cynical, and that drove record numbers of them out to vote.Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, Director, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement in the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1064452018-11-07T22:01:32Z2018-11-07T22:01:32ZLeft behind: The midterm view from Iowa<p>Now that the midterm election is over, many of my fellow Iowans are looking forward to resuming normal daily activities, finishing up the fall harvest, raking their lawns without the nuisance of political yard signs and watching television without the constant barrage of negative campaign ads. </p>
<p>I’ve <a href="https://soc.iastate.edu/directory/dr-paul-lasley/">spent my career studying trends in rural</a> culture and what these trends suggest about the future of rural communities. </p>
<p>What did the 2018 election tell us about rural America? The view from Iowa may provide some answers.</p>
<p>This midterm election has taken a toll on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/i-realised-i-had-been-sleepwalking-the-women-pushing-back-against-trump-20181102-p50die.html">the civility of “Iowa nice.”</a> The hard-fought political battles that energized voters indicate that Americans, regardless of political party affiliation, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/2018-election-status-midterm-results-965582?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000156-93f5-d63c-a7d6-93ff85830001&nlid=630318">are concerned about the future of the country</a>. This is especially true in many parts of rural America where the lack of opportunities has resulted in chronic loss of young people to urban areas, higher rates of poverty <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/85740/eib-182.pdf?v=0">and an increasingly older, dependent population</a>.</p>
<p>The bleak outlook in many rural communities across the Midwest has led to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/us/arena-wisconsin-schools-empty.html">consolidation of schools</a> <a href="https://psmag.com/social-justice/the-death-of-the-midwestern-church">and churches</a>, along with the <a href="https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/retail/the-decimation-of-rural-retail-how-store-closings-are-affecting-small-town-usa-73383">closing of many businesses</a> <a href="https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/state-by-state-breakdown-of-83-rural-hospital-closures.html">and hospitals</a>. For nearly 40 years, I have studied these trends and have great empathy for those who feel they have been “left behind.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244406/original/file-20181107-74778-1psistw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democrat Cindy Axne will represent Iowa in the House of Representatives.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-House-Axne-Iowa/692c638ca01c44b3b8ac6e4e8fc1c8eb/14/0">AP/Matthew Putney)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So when rural voters read of booming urban economies, record highs on the stock market and low unemployment rates, this does not match their observations of what’s happening in their communities, where almost <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2018/06/26/iowas-cost-living-nearly-40-percent-cant-afford-basics-united-way-alice-report-stagnant-wages/718369002/">40 percent of Iowans can’t afford the basic costs</a> of living. That <a href="https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/voters-turnout-at-record-rates-20181107">energized them to participate in the election</a>.</p>
<p>Some common themes that played a big role in yesterday’s election in Iowa: the <a href="https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/vote-2018-election-results-first-district-us-representative-iowa-rod-blum-abby-finkenauer-democrat-republican-cedar-rapids-linn-county-20181106">need for affordable health care</a> especially among low-income residents and the elderly, the <a href="https://wqad.com/2018/10/27/iowa-gubernatorial-candidates-make-final-pitches/">need to invest in education</a> for <a href="https://dailyiowan.com/2018/10/24/where-iowa-gubernatorial-candidates-stand-on-education-health-care-and-more-iowa-governor-race-kim-reynolds-republican-fred-hubbell-democrat/">the workforce of the future</a> and restoring a sense of shared economic prosperity. </p>
<p>There is one way in which Iowa is perfectly <a href="https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-women-elected-congress-ae6d0fa6-b534-41df-b11d-ff0be7a07f95.html">in tune with a national trend</a> – the one that elected record numbers of women to the House. Voters elected the state’s <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/02/iowa-election-2018-results-republicans-democrats-kim-reynolds-fred-hubbell-steve-king-voter-guide/1824173002/">first two women to the House of Representatives</a>.</p>
<p>It seems we will only have a short reprieve from electoral politics here in Iowa, given that the numerous Democratic challengers for the presidency have already started their visits to the state. I’d better get to raking my lawn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106445/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Lasley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In Iowa, almost 40 percent of residents can’t afford the basic cost of living. That was the setting for the 2018 midterm elections, where rural voters are suffering along with their communities.Paul Lasley, Professor of sociology, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065732018-11-07T21:00:17Z2018-11-07T21:00:17ZThe US government has huge debts, and House Democrats could lead the way on solutions – an economist explains how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244441/original/file-20181107-74766-rlvtrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democrat Nancy Pelosi spoke in D.C. the night of the midterm elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCIE92QXB5&SMLS=1&RW=1244&RH=746&POPUPPN=37&POPUPIID=2C0FQEQ7C6NAM">Reuters/Jonathan Ernst</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Now that Democrats control the House, the question on many minds is what they will do with it.</p>
<p>Incoming Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/us/politics/house-democrats-nancy-pelosi.html">says Democrats will focus on</a> corruption, money in politics, drug prices, gun control and protecting young immigrants. These are important but, in my view, second-order issues. </p>
<p>The biggest challenges facing the U.S. are much deeper and seriously jeopardize Americans’ future prosperity. Namely, soaring national debt, Social Security’s solvency and the lack of affordable health care.</p>
<p>As an economist, I’ve spent a lot of time <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7DFdUgwAAAAJ&hl=en">researching</a> and <a href="https://kotlikoff.net/sites/default/files/You%2527re%20Hired!%20A%20Trump%20Playbook%20For%20Fixing%20America%2527s%20Economy.pdf">writing</a> about these issues. And as a <a href="http://time.com/money/4340809/larry-kotlikoff-economist-social-security-president/">presidential candidate</a> in 2016, I tried to put them on the national agenda when I staged an independent write-in campaign. </p>
<p>Were I leading the House Democrats right now, I would focus on passing three key bills. The Senate would likely turn them down, but their passage would show the country that Democrats are prepared to govern. </p>
<h2>The US$200 trillion fiscal gap</h2>
<p>It starts by acknowledging the true state of America’s fiscal condition. </p>
<p>No politician that I know of has ever told the truth about this, either because he or she didn’t know the truth or were hiding it. Brace yourself. Here’s where we really stand.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.usdebtclock.org">official debt</a> is $21.7 trillion – more than the value of all goods and services that will be produced in the U.S. this year. But this ignores massive unfunded obligations that have been kept off the books, such as paying for future Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits. </p>
<p>When you calculate the present value of all anticipated future outlays less all the receipts projected by the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53919">Congressional Budget Office</a>, you get a whopping <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/365843-the-us-is-dead-broke-and-the-tax-bill-makes-matters-worse">$200 trillion fiscal gap</a>. This is how much we – or more accurately our children – really owe. </p>
<p>Closing this fiscal gap will require dramatic changes, including much higher taxes and drastic spending cuts. Yes, Republicans hate the former and Democrats loathe the latter. But the longer we wait to do this, the larger the taxes our kids – or theirs – will pay and the lower the benefits they will receive. And at some point, America’s decades long <a href="https://www.economist.com/economics-brief/2017/08/31/kicking-the-can-down-an-endless-road">intergenerational Ponzi scheme</a> will collapse.</p>
<p>There is hope, however. Several <a href="https://www.fiscalanalysiscenter.org">simulations and studies</a> I’ve conducted suggest three basic reforms that could largely eliminate the $200 trillion fiscal gap – while <a href="https://www.kotlikoff.net/node/541">reducing</a> <a href="https://www.nber.org/digest/dec08/w13982.html">rising</a> levels of inequality in the process. </p>
<h2>Real tax reform</h2>
<p>Let’s start with taxes. </p>
<p>The current fiscal system is riddled with inefficiencies, and what’s worse it lets the superrich <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kotlikoff/2016/10/20/getting-the-super-rich-to-pay-taxes/#28a64dae71f0">pay literally zero taxes</a>. This means there are ways to increase revenue without creating major burdens on the poor or middle class.</p>
<p>I would ask the now Democrat-controlled House Ways and Means Committee to draw up legislation to <a href="https://kotlikoff.net/sites/default/files/You%2527re%20Hired!%20A%20Trump%20Playbook%20For%20Fixing%20America%2527s%20Economy.pdf">get rid of</a> the current corporate income, personal income and FICA taxes. I would replace them with a value added tax, a highly progressive personal consumption tax, a progressive payroll tax and a high carbon tax. </p>
<p>These changes would dramatically improve incentives to work and save, make the rich pay their fair share and help save the climate – all while increasing revenues by 5 percent of GDP. </p>
<h2>Modern Social Security</h2>
<p>Of our nation’s $200 trillion fiscal gap, $34 trillion is Social Security’s <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2018/VI_F_infinite.html#1000194">unfunded liability</a> – that is, how much we owe tomorrow’s retirees beyond how much revenue the system is expected to take in. This is why by the early 2030s, Social Security <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html">will be out of money</a>, requiring a bailout or a draconian and permanent benefit cut that’s close to one-quarter.</p>
<p>Democratic hero Franklin Delano Roosevelt <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/50ed.html">helped establish</a> Social Security in 1935. As such, it’s the party’s baby. They want to protect and preserve it at all costs. </p>
<p>It’s not just the system’s finances that are a problem but also its structure. The system has <a href="https://secure.ssa.gov/apps10/">hundreds of thousands of incomprehensible rules</a>. It’s a bureaucrat’s fantasy and a user’s nightmare.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://socialsecurity.purpleplans.org/">solution</a>, however, isn’t to save it but to retire it – and replace it with something better. Social Security was based on the idea that today’s workers can support today’s retirees. While your benefits are tied to how much you earned, longer lifespans mean the payouts last much longer than a half-century ago. </p>
<p>A simple system that is more directly linked to what each person sets aside for retirement, with proceeds invested in the same global index fund, free of fees, would be simple, transparent and fully funded. The government would match contributions by the poor and contribute in full on behalf of the disabled and unemployed. </p>
<h2>Affordable insurance for everyone</h2>
<p>Another top priority should be health care, the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/midterm-exit-polls-2018-n932516">biggest concern</a> among midterm voters. </p>
<p>Close to <a href="https://www.kff.org/uninsured/fact-sheet/key-facts-about-the-uninsured-population/">30 million</a> Americans are uninsured – up <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/3-2-million-more-americans-were-uninsured-2017-n837986">3 million</a> since President Donald Trump took office. </p>
<p>Given today’s health care costs, even an unexpected gall bladder operation can bankrupt an uninsured middle-class household. No American should be forced to live with such financial risk. Everyone, not just the president and his family, needs basic coverage. Since a big chunk, roughly $60 trillion, of our $200 trillion debt comes from Medicare and Medicaid, the challenge as I see it is how to make universal basic health care affordable for the government.</p>
<p><a href="https://berniesanders.com/medicareforall/">Bernie Sanders</a> and other liberal politicians argue the path to universal health care is “Medicare for all.” I advocate something slightly different: “<a href="https://www.hhs.gov/answers/medicare-and-medicaid/what-is-medicare-part-c/index.html">Medicare Part C</a> for all.” </p>
<p>Also known as the Advantage Plan, Medicare Part C pays HMOs to provide basic health care coverage, including outpatient and inpatient care, prescription drugs and other services. It currently covers <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicare/state-indicator/enrollees-as-a-of-total-medicare-population/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D">one-third</a> of Medicare participants. Let’s just expand it to everyone. Yes, Medicare Part C limits you to one provider. But you can change providers annually. </p>
<p>Under the plan, every American would receive an annual voucher based on his or her pre-existing conditions. The voucher would be larger for those with higher expected health care costs. The voucher would be used to purchase, in full, the system’s single basic health insurance plan from one’s chosen health insurer. No insurer could refuse coverage to any participant regardless of their pre-existing conditions or place of residence.</p>
<p>It would be affordable because, although it allows for multiple private providers, it would be single-payer – which would <a href="https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/single-payer-system-would-reduce-us-health-care-costs/2012-11">dramatically reduce costs</a>. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Dylan’s message to House Democrats.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Heed the call’</h2>
<p>There are a lot of issues that I also think should be high on Democrats’ priority list, such as <a href="https://financial.purpleplans.org/">meaningful banking reform</a> and ensuring all American children get an equal education. But tackling America’s crushing debt load and reducing the fiscal gap – issues that Republicans have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/08/10/remember-when-republicans-cared-about-debt/">previously indicated</a> they care about – would pay the biggest dividends and show Democrats can identify and solve real problems. </p>
<p>Will the Democrats take advantage of their <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/democrats-activism-apps-midterm-elections/">“blue wave”</a> and pursue such an agenda? I hope so. There are lots of new blue members of Congress that ran on fixing the country, not playing political games. As they ponder their first steps in 116th Congress, they would do well to heed <a href="https://www.bobdylan.com/songs/times-they-are-changin/">Bob Dylan’s lyrics</a>:</p>
<pre class="highlight plaintext"><code> Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled.
</code></pre><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurence J. Kotlikoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As House Democrats prepare their agenda for the next two years, dealing with America’s massive fiscal gap should be at the top of their list.Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Professor of Economics, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065112018-11-07T18:38:52Z2018-11-07T18:38:52ZColoradans reject restrictions on drilling distances from homes and schools<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244388/original/file-20181107-74760-3m0vfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fracking was on the ballot in Colorado's midterm elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Colorado/7d760509d0864573a2c876234f001e2a/4/0">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Coloradans rejected a <a href="https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/Initiatives/titleBoard/results/2017-2018/97Results.html">ballot initiative</a> that would have required new oil and gas projects to be set back at least 2,500 feet from occupied buildings. The measure – known as Proposition 112 and supported by environmentalists – would have marked a major change from the state’s current limits: 500 feet from homes and 1,000 feet from schools. </p>
<p>Voters also said no to <a href="https://www.cpr.org/news/story/oil-and-gas-funded-just-compensation-amendment-makes-2018-ballot">Amendment 74</a>. That measure would have changed the state constitution to let property owners sue local governments over regulations, such as new drilling rules, if those measures lowered property values or reduced revenue for landowners. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9cA_KYAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As sociologists</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yTQGU9UAAAAJ&hl=en">have researched</a> oil and gas drilling in the communities that host it for the past seven years, we think that local governments and Coloradans need to have more say over where drilling occurs. To us, given the concerns we’ve heard from homeowners in our research, the defeat of the fracking measure demonstrates the industry’s economic power and political clout.</p>
<p>Big oil and gas companies like Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Noble Energy Inc. and PDC Energy heavily backed efforts to defeat the anti-fracking measure and joined forces with the <a href="https://durangoherald.com/articles/241355">Colorado Farm Bureau</a>, which represents farmers, ranchers and other agricultural interests, to support the amendment. </p>
<p>The community-based organizations that got Proposition 112 on the ballot spent about US$1.6 million on this campaign, while <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_Proposition_112,_Minimum_Distance_Requirements_for_New_Oil,_Gas,_and_Fracking_Projects_Initiative_(2018)">the opposition’s budget</a> topped $31 million. </p>
<p><iframe id="0zgBP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0zgBP/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Fracking boom</h2>
<p>Domestic <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-has-the-us-fracking-boom-affected-air-pollution-in-shale-areas-66190">oil and gas production has soared</a> over the past decade, leading the U.S. to become the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36292">top global producer</a> of those fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Technological innovations, especially the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/uog/process-unconventional-natural-gas-production">hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling</a> commonly called fracking, have fueled this growth. So has <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/us-energy-dominance-markets-trump-policy-2017/">federal deregulation</a>.</p>
<p>Partly because fracking and related industrial processes often occur close to homes, schools and other occupied buildings, the <a href="https://coloradopolitics.com/oil-gas-ballot-measure/">debate over Proposition 112</a> was contentious.</p>
<p>Opponents, mainly <a href="https://www.protectcolorado.com">funded by industry groups</a>, argued that stricter rules would mean less state tax revenue, job losses and <a href="https://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/colorado-initiative-ban-drilling-costing-producers-billions-1715751">weakened private property rights</a>. Proponents expressed concerns about <a href="https://source.colostate.edu/garfield-county-air-quality-study-results-presented-to-public/">air pollution</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/10/fracking-earthquakes-oklahoma-colorado-gas-companies">earthquakes</a>, <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2016/12/13/epa-fracking-can-impact-drinking-water/">water well contamination</a> and <a href="http://www.cpr.org/news/story/a-year-after-the-deadly-firestone-home-explosion-emotions-are-mixed">explosions</a> to explain why they wanted the public to have more sway.</p>
<p>But many state governments have tried to stymie the attempts of communities to gain this power. For example, Colorado’s <a href="http://www.cpr.org/news/story/colorado-supreme-court-rules-against-cities-fracking-limits">Supreme Court ruled in 2016</a> that local communities have no right to regulate where drilling occurs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An oil storage tank alongside a housing development near Firestone, Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Fracking-Colorado/f7b1fb77e7e04cd7993beaa6f374467e/3/0">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Regulations and leasing</h2>
<p>Members of the public and local governments have <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2016/09/28/pa-supreme-court-rules-with-environmentalists-over-remaining-issues-in-act-13/">successfully challenged</a> limits on local control over fracking in court before. For example, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court affirmed the power of communities to regulate the oil and gas industry locally when it ruled in 2016 that parts of a law known as <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/tag/act-13/">Act 13 were unconstitutional</a>.</p>
<p>In that instance, the court ruled against a provision that barred doctors from sharing information about possible toxic exposure if they were given access to industry information about the chemicals used in fracking. It also blocked the enforcement of a measure that allowed the use of eminent domain to site natural gas storage facilities.</p>
<p>But to our knowledge, Colorado’s ballot initiative marked the first time voters have tried to control the setback distances of oil and gas facilities from rivers, homes, schools and other buildings in their communities. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tQCEZmwvhBw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Actor and activist Mark Ruffalo appeared in an ad urging Colorado voters to support the fracking measure.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Negotiating terms</h2>
<p>Regulating oil and gas leases on private land is hard partly because they are privately negotiated contracts between companies and landowners. To learn more about what happens during these negotiations, we interviewed more than 100 Coloradans and Pennsylvanians about their experiences negotiating these drilling leases.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy094">recently published study</a>, we found that these people feel inconvenienced at best. Most told us they felt exploited and mistreated due to the leasing experience despite having made money off of leasing their land or <a href="https://geology.com/articles/mineral-rights.shtml">mineral rights</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08941920.2014.945056?journalCode=usnr20">scholars who look at how drilling affects local communities</a> argue that this process empowers private property owners because they play a direct role in deciding the terms of these negotiations. And some of these folks can even <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=7wXZE1uuJ8o">get rich</a> from fracking lease earnings.</p>
<p>Certainly, landowners – including some of the people we interviewed – have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/03/15/592890524/millions-own-gas-and-oil-under-their-land-heres-why-only-some-strike-it-rich">earned income</a> from these contracts, though the amounts can vary from a few dollars to thousands of dollars per acre. But the overwhelming majority of the Pennsylvanians and Coloradans who met with us in their kitchen tables, backyards and farms described feeling disempowered when they signed fracking leases.</p>
<p>During private negotiations, landmen – the company representatives who try to convince people to sell or lease their land and mineral rights – discouraged neighbors from teaming up to get a better deal or even talking with one another about the terms they’re considering, interviewees told us.</p>
<p>In some situations, when residents negotiated for better-than-average lease terms, landmen made them sign nondisclosure agreements that legally forbade sharing information.</p>
<h2>Same land, different owners</h2>
<p>Occasionally in Pennsylvania and almost always in Colorado, these fracked <a href="https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/mining-and-minerals/split-estate">properties belong</a> to two or more parties. One owns the surface and someone else possesses the rights to whatever minerals lie beneath it.</p>
<p>And, in Colorado, surface landowners are legally required to provide mineral owners <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2016/03/05/mineral-owners-assert-property-rights-in-colorados-oil-and-gas-fight/">access to their resources</a>.</p>
<p>Many people we interviewed owned land but not the rights to the minerals below it. With <a href="https://cogcc.state.co.us/documents/about/Help/Surface%20Owners%20Brochure.pdf">limited power</a> to stave off drilling in their backyards or on their farms, the surface rights owners we interviewed said they felt like “sitting ducks” and “unprotected.” They told us that they saw attempting to keep an oil and gas company off their land as “futile.”</p>
<p>“John,” a farmer who lives south of Denver, tried to fight the placement of a pipeline that split his farm into two less usable pieces. When he tried to fight the pipeline placement, he told us, he overheard industry representatives speculating that they simply needed to outspend his opposition.</p>
<p>That appears to be the <a href="https://capitalandmain.com/energy-giants-choose-nuclear-option-in-elections-biggest-fight-over-fossil-fuel-1030">strategy that oil and gas companies followed</a> in their successful quest to block Proposition 112.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yard sign for foes of Clorado’s fracking measure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Ballot-Issues-Colorado-Energy/5a2dd29097254dd8908a216c1ac169bf/2/0">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mineral rights</h2>
<p>When the people we interviewed owned the mineral rights tied to their property but did not want to lease them, an energy company could pursue them through a state statute allowing a practice known as “<a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/forced-pooling-when-landowners-cant-say-no-to-drilling">forced pooling</a>” in both Pennsylvania and Colorado.</p>
<p>It makes leasing mineral rights mandatory, leaving landowners with no way to say no when a company wants to frack their property.</p>
<p>We also heard about the personal costs participants experienced after they signed leases. Ranchers explained they lost productive pastureland. Other residents believed they became ill because of air pollution. And many farmers described lasting damage to idyllic homesteads.</p>
<p>Even when these factors violated their leases or laws governing oil and gas practices, nearly all lease signers we interviewed told us they had a hard time getting oil and gas operators with whom they’d signed leases to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/15605003/Energy_Crime_Harm_and_Problematic_State_Response_in_Colorado_A_Case_of_the_Fox_Guarding_the_Hen_House">address any violations</a> of those contracts.</p>
<p>To “Connor,” a homesteader in southern Colorado, the negotiation process felt “like having a second job.” At times,“ he told us, "it was absolutely overwhelming. I think we did absolutely everything we could as private citizens to try and mitigate the impacts and in the end, it was futile.”</p>
<p>To defeat Proposition 112, the oil and gas industry saturated the local media with messaging intended to make voters <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGWa1xPR2e8">fear its potential negative economic consequences</a>. That 43 percent of Colorado voters voted for the measure anyway indicates that a large share of the public wants to protect public health and the environment with stronger policies.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-frack-so-close-to-me-colorado-voters-will-weigh-in-on-drilling-distances-from-homes-and-schools-102544">Sept. 26, 2018</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Malin has received funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the Rural Sociological Society, and the CSU Water Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tara Opsal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Big oil and gas companies spent far more fighting this ballot initiative than the measure’s supporters did.Stephanie Malin, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Colorado State UniversityTara Opsal, Associate Professor of Sociology, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1064442018-11-07T18:11:56Z2018-11-07T18:11:56ZLatinos can be an electoral force in 2020<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244370/original/file-20181107-74760-78vfhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democrat Beto O'Rourke won 63 percent of Latino voters in Texas, exit polls show, and Latinos seem to have voted in record numbers. But it wasn't enough to win.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Senate-O-Rourke-Texas/6fc2e6d5c2a74125bafa467b280b5071/21/0">AP Photo/Eric Gay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/elecciones-eeuu-poblacion-latina-puede-ser-una-fuerza-electoral-en-2020-106592">Leer en español</a>.</em></p>
<p>Latino turnout surged in the midterms, early signs show.</p>
<p>There are 27.3 million eligible Latino voters in the United States, <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/">according to the Pew Research Center</a> – 12 percent of the electorate. Historically, most haven’t voted. In the 2014 midterm election, just <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/19/looking-back-to-2014-latino-voter-turnout-rate-falls-to-record-low/">27 percent of eligible Latinos cast ballots</a>, compared to 43 percent of eligible white voters.</p>
<p>These midterms looked different. </p>
<p>Final data from the 2018 election won’t be available for months, but absentee and early voting tallies – along with exit polls and <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donde-votar-latino-turnout-expected-surge-midterms-1203854">Spanish language Google searches on polling locations</a> – suggest that Latinos voted in record numbers on Tuesday. </p>
<p>There was a nearly 120 percent increase in absentee and early ballots cast by Latinos compared with 2014, <a href="https://catalist.us/data">according to my analysis of data from Catalist</a>, an electoral research firm. Seventy-six percent of those requests came from “strong Democrats.”</p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://theconversation.com/democrats-cant-count-on-latinos-to-swing-the-midterms-105338">hope</a> among Democrats that Latinos rejecting President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant policies would trigger a blue tsunami were dashed in Texas and Florida. Both states have large Latino populations and high-visibility candidates whose campaigns <a href="https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Florida-Governor-Andrew-Gillum-Ron-DeSantis-499554241.html">targeted</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/card/nbc-news-exit-poll-texas-white-voters-helped-boost-cruz-n933116">excited Latino voters</a> with progressive agendas for tackling inequality.</p>
<p>Why couldn’t Latinos hand wins to Democrats Beto O'Rourke of Texas and Andrew Gillum of Florida?</p>
<p>I study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=search_authors&mauthors=Lisa+Garcia+Bedolla&hl=en&oi=ao">Latino civic engagement</a>. In my assessment, congressional redistricting intended to <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/breaking-down-supreme-courts-texas-redistricting-ruling">suppress minority votes</a> and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2018-exit-poll-analysis-56-percent-country/story?id=59006586">high Republican turnout</a> were the primary reasons – not low Latino support. </p>
<p>In Texas, Latinos requested 365 percent more early and absentee ballots than in 2014, Catalist data show. Florida saw a 129 percent increase. In contrast, in California – which this year had <a href="https://theconversation.com/female-candidates-running-in-record-numbers-for-the-midterms-just-not-in-california-105365">a handful of highly competitive congressional races</a> but no competitive statewide races – early and absentee ballots requested by Latinos still were up almost 50 percent over 2014.</p>
<p>Those numbers show that when candidates and campaigns engage Latinos and focus on the issues they care about, Latinos will show up at the polls – an opportunity Democrats and Republicans alike <a href="http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2015/03/31/official-voter-turnout-data-for-latinos-in-2014/">missed</a> in the 2014 and 2016 elections.</p>
<p>In Texas and Florida, as in other Republican strongholds with large Latino populations, Democrats competed in highly <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-rules-texas-district-racially-gerrymandered/story?id=56140728">gerrymandered</a> <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/florida/">districts</a>, and Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/republican-ads-feature-ms-13-hoping-fear-will-motivate-voters-105474">anti-immigrant appeals</a> mobilized his base. </p>
<p>The result was <a href="http://time.com/5447210/2018-voter-turnout/">increased participation</a> in both parties. That helps explain the narrow losses of O’Rourke and Gillum. </p>
<p>The midterms were not a Latino tsunami. But they hold important lessons for the 2020 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Garcia Bedolla is affiliated with the Center for Community Change Action and the Sandler Phillips Center. She has been funded by the Civic Participation Action Fund. </span></em></p>Record high Latino participation shows this growing voter segment will turn out for parties and politicians who tackle issues they care about. That’s a big lesson for 2020 – and not just for Dems.Lisa García Bedolla, Chancellor's Professor of Education and Political Science, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1058292018-11-07T14:21:21Z2018-11-07T14:21:21ZWomen candidates break records in the 2018 US midterm elections<p>The 2018 midterms <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/women-rule-midterms-443267">broke the records on female candidates</a> in US elections. More than <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/potential-candidate-summary-2018">20 women were on the Senate ballot</a>, while <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/potential-candidate-summary-2018#house">more than ten times that number</a> stood for the House of Representatives. If we also consider state elections for executive roles such as governor as well as <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/potential-candidate-summary-2018#stleg">state legislatures</a>, the number of female candidates in 2018 rises by another 3,500. The results mean that several states (including <a href="https://theconversation.com/independent-voters-will-decide-arizonas-historic-female-senate-race-105968">Arizona</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/tennessee-senate-marsha-blackburn/index.html">Tennessee</a>) will now send their first ever women to the Senate, and more than 100 women will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html">enter the House</a>.</p>
<p>After the new senators and representatives are sworn in, Congress will be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/a-day-before-the-election-some-results-are-clear-the-next-congress-will-be-younger-more-female-and-more-diverse/2018/11/05/5a49fdaa-dd1e-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.dfcccf2c91eb">more diverse</a> in terms of race and religion – with women making a major contribution to this shift.</p>
<p>Rashida Tlaib (Michigan) and Ilhan Omar (Minnesota) share the distinction of becoming the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterms-2018/rashida-tlaib-ilhan-omar-muslim-women-midterm-elections-michigan-minnesota-congress-house-race-a8621161.html">first Muslim women</a> in Congress. Texas sends both of the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/06/sylvia-garcia-veronica-escobar-first-latina-texas-midterm-election/">first two Latina women</a> to Congress, Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar. Several states will send African American women to represent them in Washington for the first time, too, including Massachusetts (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2018/nov/07/ayanna-pressley-massachusetts-first-black-congresswoman">Ayanna Pressley</a>) and Connecticut (Jahana Hayes). </p>
<p>These elections give further support to research that highlights the importance of party loyalty <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912917716336">for women as well as men</a>. In other words, all other things being equal, American voters will cling to their own parties, especially when they feel their party is under threat. So we should not be surprised that the combination of Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and the <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/women-accused-trump-sexual-misconduct-list-2017-12/#jessica-leeds-1">numerous allegations of sexual harassment</a> against him have motivated far more Democrat women than Republican women to run for office. </p>
<p>Nearly three-quarters of the women who declared their candidacy in 2018 were Democrats. Even after many contenders were eliminated in the primaries, there were still <a href="http://cawp.rutgers.edu/2018-primary-women-candidates-us-congress-and-statewide-elected-executive">roughly twice as many Democrat as Republican female candidates</a> on the final ballots. </p>
<p>The mid-terms also demonstrate that women can overcome factors that are typically disadvantages for a candidate, such as being a challenger rather than an incumbent, having little or no experience of elected office, and promoting policy positions that are outside the mainstream.</p>
<p>In one of the most high-profile races in the country, New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated her Democratic primary opponent – an incumbent who had served ten terms in Congress – and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2018/nov/07/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-elected-to-congress-video">went on to victory</a> on November 6. This was despite her calls for <a href="http://time.com/5323658/heres-what-americans-think-of-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-most-provocative-ideas/">policy changes that many described as radical</a>, including government guarantees for universal health care, employment and housing. At the age of 29, Ocasio-Cortez is now the youngest woman ever to be elected to the US House. </p>
<h2>Changing tactics</h2>
<p>Many of the women running emphasised education and healthcare (traditionally regarded as “women’s issues”). But they also prominently presented their views on “hard” policy areas such as <a href="https://www.votetulsi.com/node/25013">national security</a>, <a href="http://wendyrogers.org/issues/">immigration</a>, <a href="https://www.laurakellyforkansas.com/issues/economy/">job creation</a> and <a href="http://www.beck4indiana.org/issue/guiding-principles/">taxation</a>. Women candidates have not hesitated to be blunt in <a href="https://katieporter.com/videos">criticising the records and policies of their opponents</a>, and have performed well in hard-hitting, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msxropCGhls">one-to-one debates</a>. The 2018 mid-terms demonstrate very clearly that there is no such thing as a one size fits all, women’s style of campaigning.</p>
<p>These elections have also shown that, like men, women can leverage their military service records to appeal to American voters. Women veterans winning elected office is not completely new to American politics, but previous examples have been few – if high profile. <a href="https://www.duckworth.senate.gov/about-tammy/biography">Tammy Duckworth</a>, a helicopter pilot who lost both her legs in Iraq, was elected to the US House in 2012 and the US Senate in 2016, and is famously the first Senator ever <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/09/politics/tammy-duckworth-gives-birth-baby-girl/index.html">to give birth while in office</a>. </p>
<p>The combination of increasing numbers of women serving in the US armed forces, the opening up of new military roles to women, and the continuous deployment of American troops in war zones since 2001 has created a substantial pool of potential female veteran candidates.</p>
<p>Much attention in this election was devoted to a handful of Democrat female veterans running for Congress against incumbent male Republicans. <a href="https://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/a23694436/women-rising-campaign-veterans-running-for-office/">These women</a> – including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/23/us/politics/amy-mcgrath-kentucky.html">Amy McGrath</a> (Kentucky), <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/09/politics/female-veterans-run-for-congress/index.html">MJ Hegar</a> (Texas), <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/29/us/politics/women-annapolis-democrats-congress-trump.html">Elaine Luria</a> (Virginia), and <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/05/how-pennsylvania-industrial-engineer-became-odds-favorite-win-seat-congress">Chrissy Houlahan</a> (Pennsylvania) – had lengthy careers in different branches of the military. They were deployed overseas and used their veteran status to bolster their credibility as first-time candidates. Although their fortunes at the polls were mixed (Luria and Houlahan won; McGrath and Hager lost), all waged smart, well-crafted campaigns that pushed their opponents hard and ensured victory was decided by just a few percentage points.</p>
<p>There is still a long way to go before the US approaches both gender and racial equality in elected office, however. As this article is being written, African American Democrat <a href="http://coveteur.com/2018/10/23/women-in-politics-talk-2018-midterm-elections/">Stacey Abrams</a> continues her fight to become Georgia’s governor amid <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/26/georgia-voter-suppression-allegations-brian-kemp-stacey-abrams">allegations of voter suppression</a> that disproportionately affects people of colour.</p>
<p>Her opponent, Georgia secretary of state Brian Kemp, refused to relinquish his role of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/kemp-charges-georgia-democrats-attempted-voter-hack-abrams-fires-back-n931011">overseeing the elections</a> despite his candidacy. President Trump himself has weighed in on this election, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/03/why-trump-thinks-stacey-abrams-one-s-most-experienced-candidates-is-unqualified-be-governor/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b8ec48c63a38">describing Abrams as unqualified</a> to be governor of the traditionally Republican state – despite her years as an elected representative in the state legislature and her PhD from Yale law school. If Abrams is successful, she will become the first African American woman ever to become governor, not just of Georgia, but of any US state.</p>
<p>Although Abrams may turn out to be among the unsuccessful women candidates of 2018, women’s experiences of putting themselves forward for election is a formative one that can provide a foundation for future campaigns. It is unlikely that we have heard the last of these women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Mathers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Several states now have their first female senator and more than 100 women will enter the House of Representatives.Jennifer Mathers, Reader in International Politics, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065282018-11-07T07:05:28Z2018-11-07T07:05:28ZFlorida restores voting rights to 1.5 million citizens, which might also decrease crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244271/original/file-20181107-74763-a5ouyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People in Miami learn about Amendment 4.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Felons-Rights-Florida/e31d207e65364cbab02ef4c22181bd91/1/0">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voters in Florida approved <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Voting_Rights_Restoration_for_Felons_Initiative_(2018)">a ballot measure</a> on Tuesday that restores voting rights to citizens with felony convictions once they have completed their full sentence.</p>
<p>The newly elected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/20/ron-desantis-on-gambling-charter-schools-differing-from-rick-scott-and-his-concerns-with-student-testing/">opposed the measure called Amendment 4</a>. But more than <a href="https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/Amendments">64 percent of Florida voters</a> voted in favor of the amendment – well above the 60 percent support that was needed for it to pass. This means that <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/">1.5 million U.S. citizens in Florida</a> automatically regained their right to vote, increasing the number of eligible voters in Florida by more than 10 percent overnight. </p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">My research</a> finds that when Virginia restored voting rights, ex-offenders became more trusting of government and the criminal justice system. These attitudes are known to make it easier for citizens to re-enter society after being released from prison and also decrease their tendency to commit additional crimes.</p>
<p>The results from my study in Virginia might give a glimpse of what could be expected in Florida, now that Amendment 4 has passed.</p>
<h2>Florida votes to change its felony disenfranchisement laws</h2>
<p>Before the amendment passed, more than <a href="http://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/6-Million-Lost-Voters.pdf">6 million</a> U.S. citizens did not have the right to vote due to state laws that limited the voting rights of people who have been convicted of a felony. </p>
<p>These felon disenfranchisement laws vary between states. Most states automatically restore voting rights to people after they are released from prison, or after completion of parole or probation. </p>
<p>But Florida was the most strict. Before the November 2018 election, Florida was <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/criminal-disenfranchisement-laws-across-united-states">one of only four states</a> that had no automatic process for restoring voting rights.</p>
<p>Under <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-florida">Florida’s old system</a>, a citizen with a felony conviction could only have their voting rights restored by applying to the <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/clemency.shtml">Executive Clemency Board</a> – a four-member panel including both the governor and the attorney general. The clemency board was allowed to reject applications for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpPyLcQ2vdI">any reason</a>, and was known to ask applicants questions about their family, religion, and even <a href="http://fairelectionsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/Hand-v.-Scott-Complaint.pdf">traffic violations</a>. </p>
<p>Under outgoing Gov. Rick Scott, the clemency board approved <a href="http://fairelectionsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/Hand-v.-Scott-Complaint.pdf">fewer than 2,000 restorations</a> of voting rights over six years. They had a <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/docs/reports/Annual%20Report%202017%20for%20web.pdf">backlog</a> of more than 10,000 applications. </p>
<p>Given these strict laws, more than 1.6 million voting-age citizens in Florida did not have the right to vote – including <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/">more than 1 out of every 5 black citizens</a> statewide. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.fl-counties.com/amendment-4">Amendment 4</a> changed the Florida State Constitution. </p>
<p>Though the newly elected DeSantis <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/20/ron-desantis-on-gambling-charter-schools-differing-from-rick-scott-and-his-concerns-with-student-testing/">opposed Amendment 4</a>, his <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/clemency.shtml">Executive Clemency Board</a> will no longer have power over voting rights for all people previously convicted of felonies. Instead, voting rights will now be automatically restored at the end of an individual’s probation period. This change applies to all felonies except for murder and sex crimes.</p>
<h2>New research from Virginia</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.restore.virginia.gov/">Virginia</a>, an ex-offender can only regain their right to vote if the governor signs an executive order personally restoring their civil rights.</p>
<p>Typically, previous governors waited for people to apply and considered individual applications for restoration <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-virginia">with varying scrutiny</a>. But in 2016 and 2017, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe made the unprecedented move to proactively restore voting rights to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-gov-mcauliffe-says-he-has-broken-us-record-for-restoring-voting-rights/2017/04/27/55b5591a-2b8b-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html?utm_term=.598ed4aa932e">more than 150,000 ex-offenders</a> – more than any other governor in U.S. history.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Steve Helber</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I went to Virginia during the November 2017 statewide election, shortly after many new restoration orders had been processed. I <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">recruited a sample of 93 citizens</a> with felony convictions to complete two surveys – one before the election, and one after.</p>
<p>More than 70 percent of these individuals already had their voting rights restored by the governor, but many of them were not aware of their newly restored rights.</p>
<p>I randomly divided them into groups. After the first survey and before the election, individuals in one group were informed about whether their voting rights had been restored. Individuals in another group were not provided with this information. I then compared the attitudes within the two groups before and after the election.</p>
<p>Since many subjects were unaware that their voting rights had already been restored, the study randomly increased information about their new voting rights. Because the two groups being compared are similar in every way – except for the information they received about voting rights – I am able to measure the effects of learning that your right to vote has been restored. </p>
<p>The results?</p>
<p>Citizens who were told whether their voting rights had been restored became more trusting of government and the criminal justice system compared to those who were not provided with this information. They also viewed the U.S. government as more fair and representative. And they became more trusting of the police and more willing to cooperate with law enforcement.</p>
<p>These findings corroborate results from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">another study</a> I conducted in November 2014. The earlier study similarly informed some citizens with felony convictions in Ohio that their voting rights had been restored. Compared to another group who was not provided with this information, subjects who were informed that their voting rights had been restored reported higher trust in the government and the police.</p>
<p>These trusting and pro-democratic attitudes <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1996.tb01220.x">are known to help</a> citizens reintegrate into their communities upon release from prison.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/10430-000">Research</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716206286898">suggests</a> <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=205090">citizens</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474510385641">returning from prison</a> reintegrate more successfully if they are able to transition from an identity as a “criminal” to an identity of a “law-abiding citizen.”</p>
<p>Not being allowed to vote creates a lasting stigma that makes it harder for them to see themselves as valuable members of society. On the other hand, being encouraged to vote causes people to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000168">more informed</a> and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272681">more trusting</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Causes_of_Delinquency.html?id=53MNtMqy0fIC">Research on crime</a> also suggests that people are more likely to obey laws when they believe those laws were created through a fair process. Individuals in my study who were informed about their voting rights also perceived the government as more fair and representative. Thus voting rights might make it easier for returning citizens to reintegrate into society, while also reducing the incentives to commit further crimes.</p>
<h2>Lessons for Amendment 4</h2>
<p>Policies regulating the voting rights of ex-offenders have historically been a <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0160323X0503700104">partisan issue</a>, with Democrats supporting voting rights and Republicans supporting voting restrictions. However <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida">a recent study</a> estimated that Amendment 4 was unlikely to provide a significant advantage to either party. </p>
<p>Part of what may explain why Amendment 4 passed is that it had strong <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/florida-felon-vote-bipartisan-df6cff80d5f8/">bipartisan</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/magazine/ex-felons-voting-rights-florida.html">support</a>. One argument that <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272685">increases support</a> among both sides is that <a href="https://www.lwvfl.org/amendments/amendment4/">restoring voting rights might decrease crime</a>.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3088970">other</a> <a href="https://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1252&context=blrlj">studies</a> that <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195149326.001.0001">have</a> <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/docs/reports/Recidivism%20Report%202016%20&%202017%20signed.pdf">found</a> a relationship between voting rights and lower crime. But none of them have yet been able to test whether restoring voting rights causes crime to decrease as mine does.</p>
<p>My research provides the first causal evidence that restoring voting rights causes ex-offenders to develop the very attitudes and behaviors that make them more likely to successfully reintegrate into society and avoid returning to crime and prison.</p>
<p>Beyond the effects Amendment 4 might have on voter turnout and electoral outcomes, it could also decrease crime and the costs of the criminal justice system.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an update of a story that was originally published on Oct. 26, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Shineman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows that when ex-offenders are told they’re able to vote, their attitudes about democracy and justice improve.Victoria Shineman, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1061612018-11-07T06:21:08Z2018-11-07T06:21:08ZThe US midterms show the power of Trump’s divisive messages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244264/original/file-20181107-74775-lmzbfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ted Cruz held off a spirited challenge from Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke to help the Republicans hold onto the Senate in a big night for the GOP.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Wyke/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The good news if you don’t like US President Donald Trump: he has less than 24 months remaining in his first term in office. The bad news: he now looks to have a better chance at staying in office until 2025. </p>
<p>This year’s midterm elections broke for Trump much more than expected. The Republicans maintained their control of the Senate, picking up key victories in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. And though the Democrats <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html">regained control of the House of Representatives</a>, as expected, this is not the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/03/opinion/democratic-party-midterm-elections-polling.html">counter-revolution</a> they were hoping for.</p>
<p>It is not a Trump wave, but it has confirmed the president’s staying power. Love him or hate him, he remains a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/republicans-midterms-trump-racial-division.html">remarkable political phenomenon</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/calculating-the-odds-of-a-trump-impeachment-dont-bet-the-house-on-it-104419">Calculating the odds of a Trump impeachment: don't bet the house on it</a>
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<p>Some key takeaways from the midterm elections:</p>
<p><strong>Scaring people worked:</strong> The Republicans not only <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">held onto power in the Senate</a>, they seem likely to have increased their slim majority in the chamber. Importantly, there will be more Trump Republicans in the Senate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/01/donald-trump-white-house-immigration-midterms-speech">Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric</a>, such as his pledge to secure the border against an “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-30/trump-to-deploy-5200-troops-as-migrant-caravan-nears-us-mexico/10445544">invading caravan</a>” of Central American migrants, worked as a get-out-the-base strategy. While Democrats enjoyed a surge in <a href="https://qz.com/1452408/early-voting-breaks-all-previous-records-in-the-uss-2018-midterm-elections/">turn-out</a>, Republican voters also did not stay home. </p>
<p>And several winning Republican candidates, like <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/04/indiana-senate-race-2018-joe-donnelly-mike-braun-real-differences-between-candidates/1832727002/">Mike Braun in Indiana</a>, ran hard on Trump themes like immigration. Their victories show how much Trump’s control of the GOP has increased.</p>
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<p><strong>Trump for president in 2020:</strong> Trump looks to be in a better position for re-election than many commentators had believed. </p>
<p>The Democrats did take back the House, but that is par for the course in midterm elections. What’s more telling is that they did not invade Trump territory – the deep-red parts of the South, Midwest and Rust Belt – in any substantial way. Winning control of the House could make life difficult for Trump, but the Democrats cannot remove him from office <a href="https://theconversation.com/calculating-the-odds-of-a-trump-impeachment-dont-bet-the-house-on-it-104419">without a sizeable majority</a> in the Senate - which seems a world away.</p>
<p>Also, the midterms should make it a near-certainty that no serious Republican will challenge Trump for the presidential nomination in 2020. He has proven once again that he is an impressive electoral campaigner with a crude but effective grasp of strategy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244269/original/file-20181107-74751-o3kmei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244269/original/file-20181107-74751-o3kmei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244269/original/file-20181107-74751-o3kmei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244269/original/file-20181107-74751-o3kmei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244269/original/file-20181107-74751-o3kmei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244269/original/file-20181107-74751-o3kmei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244269/original/file-20181107-74751-o3kmei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democrats celebrated retaking the House, but they failed to make huge in-roads in ‘Trump country’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik S. Lesser/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>There was a Brett Kavanaugh effect:</strong> The highly contentious <a href="http://time.com/5417538/bett-kavanaugh-confirmed-senate-supreme-court/">nomination battle</a> over Trump’s Supreme Court pick seems to have energised his base more than the Democrats’. The Democrats in red states <a href="https://www.salon.com/2018/11/06/joe-donnelly-and-heidi-heitkamp-go-down-did-brett-kavanaugh-sink-democrats-in-the-senate/">who voted against Kavanaugh</a> lost their re-election bids – Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the only Democrat to vote to confirm Kavanaugh – Senator <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/democrat-joe-manchin-will-win-re-election-to-west-virginia-senate-seat-nbc-news.html">Joe Manchin</a> – won his race in predominantly Republican West Virginia.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-midterm-elections-are-being-billed-as-a-referendum-on-trump-but-its-not-that-simple-105133">The US midterm elections are being billed as a referendum on Trump, but it's not that simple</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p><strong>There is not a Democratic messiah in waiting:</strong> Texas Senate candidate <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45674116">Beto O’Rourke</a> looked like he might be this figure – a person to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jul/24/uselections2008.barackobama">energise the party</a> much the way then-Senator Barack Obama did in 2008 – but O'Rourke <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/ted-cruz-wins-texas-senate-race.html">lost his race</a> against incumbent Ted Cruz, despite a very tight contest. Democrats still need a platform that is about more than “Stop Trump.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244268/original/file-20181107-74775-1vwo3fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244268/original/file-20181107-74775-1vwo3fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244268/original/file-20181107-74775-1vwo3fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244268/original/file-20181107-74775-1vwo3fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244268/original/file-20181107-74775-1vwo3fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244268/original/file-20181107-74775-1vwo3fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244268/original/file-20181107-74775-1vwo3fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beto O'Rourke would have been the first Democratic senator elected in Texas since 1988.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Larry W. Smith/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>It is a year of the woman – but not just progressive women:</strong> A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/record-number-of-women-appear-headed-for-congress/2018/11/06/76a9e60a-e1eb-11e8-8f5f-a55347f48762_story.html?utm_term=.358141cbe4ce">record number of women</a> (260) ran for Congress this year. Early results suggest that many white, female voters who backed Trump in 2016 went for Democratic candidates this time around, reflecting the salience of healthcare as a key election issue for Democrat voters. </p>
<p>But not all winning female candidates in the midterms were Democrats. Marsha Blackburn, a staunch Trump supporter and <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2018/10/30/marsha-blackburn-migrant-caravan-invading-force-opinion/1823293002/">demoniser</a> of the Central American migrant caravan, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/6/18049520/midterm-election-results-tennessee-senate-marsha-blackburn-winner">won the race</a> for the open Senate seat in Tennessee.</p>
<p><strong>Hispanics remain a key demographic:</strong> Trump was widely condemned for his anti-Hispanic immigrant stance in midterm campaigning. The paradox is that the more Republicans can appeal to Hispanics, the more likely they are to win next time. </p>
<p>According to exit polls, the Republicans <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls">look set to win less than 30% of Hispanic votes</a> in the midterms, compared to nearly 45% captured by <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26119-2004Dec25.html">Republican George W. Bush in 2004</a>. If they are able to increase this margin to between 35 to 40%, this might be enough to turn purple states like Florida and Nevada reliably red.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unlike-in-2016-there-was-no-spike-in-misinformation-this-election-cycle-105946">Unlike in 2016, there was no spike in misinformation this election cycle</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>There is a lot of purple out there:</strong> Americans still rather like split-ticket voting, meaning they are fine voting for different parties on the same ballot. This makes the notion of exclusively red and exclusively blue states an exaggeration. </p>
<p>For example, Democratic candidates picked up governorships in traditionally Republican states, such as <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/laura-kelly-kansas-governor_us_5bdcb4b6e4b09d43e31ee97a">Laura Kelly’s win in Kansas over Kris Kobach</a>, a hard-line, anti-immigrant Trump ally. And Republicans won several governor races in traditionally Democratic New England.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244270/original/file-20181107-74754-pguv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244270/original/file-20181107-74754-pguv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244270/original/file-20181107-74754-pguv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244270/original/file-20181107-74754-pguv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244270/original/file-20181107-74754-pguv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244270/original/file-20181107-74754-pguv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244270/original/file-20181107-74754-pguv86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Laura Kelly’s gubernatorial win in Kansas was a bright spot for the Democrats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong>Florida has retained its centrality to US electoral politics:</strong> The state remains essentially impossible to call. Polling trends were <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/?ex_cid=midterms-header">again defied on election day</a>, with losses by Democrats <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida-senate">Bill Nelson for Senate</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/florida-senate-race-scott-nelson-governor-race-gillum-desantis-live-results-polls-2018-11-06/">Andrew Gillum for governor</a>. As purple a state as they come, Florida could well determine the next several presidential elections. </p>
<p>The bottom line after the midterms is that Trump is here to stay. And though the Democrats now control the House, this has just offered him a foil – an institution to define himself against – as he moves toward re-election in two years time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy J. Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Key victories by pro-Trump, anti-immigrant candidates have confirmed the president’s hold on the Republican Party and his ability to turn out his conservative base.Timothy J. Lynch, Associate Professor in American Politics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065122018-11-07T05:38:06Z2018-11-07T05:38:06ZMarijuana expands into 3 more states, but nationwide legalization still unlikely<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244207/original/file-20181106-74775-1jf8jjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Has marijuana legalization reached a tipping point?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Medical-Marijuana-Missouri/73b206fe751c428aa284f1074e053c96/3/0">AP Photo/David Dermer, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/legalization-on-the-ballot-live-marijuana-election-results/">midterm elections</a> have further loosened marijuana restrictions in the United States. Voters in three of four states with ballot proposals on marijuana approved those initiatives.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://themarijuanaherald.com/news/utah-legalizes-medical-marijuana/">Utah</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomangell/2018/11/06/missouri-votes-to-legalize-medical-marijuana/">Missouri</a>, voters on Tuesday decided that patients should have access to medical marijuana. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/06/marijuana-legal-michigan-results/1835274002/">Michigan</a>, which already had medical marijuana, became the first Midwestern state to fully legalize pot. It joins <a href="http://www.governing.com/gov-data/safety-justice/state-marijuana-laws-map-medical-recreational.html">nine other U.S. states</a>, Washington, D.C., <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/17/health/canada-legalizes-recreational-marijuana/index.html">Canada</a> and Uruguay in launching a regulated recreational marijuana market.</p>
<p>North Dakotans decisively <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomangell/2018/11/06/north-dakota-marijuana-legalization-measure-fails/">rejected</a> a proposal to make marijuana legal for recreational purposes.</p>
<p>Before Tuesday’s vote, 22 American states had adopted comprehensive medical marijuana programs. California was the first, recognizing in 1996 the <a href="http://www.mm-ma.org/sites/default/files/JAMA%20Clinical%20Review%20of%20Medical%20Marijuana%20forTreatment%20of%20Chronic%20Pain.pdf">therapeutic uses</a> of marijuana in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/health-benefits-of-medical-marijuana-2014-4">easing the symptoms of serious illnesses</a> like HIV, cancer, epilepsy, PTSD and glaucoma. Recently, marijuana’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/03/09/592305410/questions-and-answers-about-opioids-and-chronic-pain">potential value for treating chronic pain</a> has garnered attention as an alternative to opioids. </p>
<h2>No tipping point</h2>
<p>Nationally, support for marijuana has <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/08/americans-support-marijuana-legalization/">never been stronger</a>. Seventy-two percent of Democrats and a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/221018/record-high-support-legalizing-marijuana.aspx">narrow majority of Republicans</a> – 51 percent – support legalization, according to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/221018/record-high-support-legalizing-marijuana.aspx">Gallup</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/27/politics/marijuana-legalization-tipping-point/index.html">Strong public support</a> and successive <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2016/11/8/13520486/marijuana-legalization-california-election-2016">waves of state-level legalization</a> in election years have led many <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/how-legal-weed-reached-a-tipping-point-in-time-for-4-point-20.html">policy analysts</a> to <a href="https://cannabinomics.com/">argue</a> that <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/marijuana-legalization-reach-national-tipping-point-election-day">marijuana</a> has reached a <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/10/24/advocates-see-tipping-point-marijuana-legalization/4ECGGUa6hHEyemzOTnymoJ/story.html">tipping point</a> in the United States.</p>
<p>Two-thirds of all U.S. states have now legalized some kind of marijuana. After that, the argument goes, its nationwide expansion is inevitable. </p>
<p>As marijuana policy researchers, we <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/07/23/has-the-u-s-reached-a-tipping-point-in-marijuana-legalization/?utm_term=.92d84ee9ef35">question</a> that narrative. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psj.12211">research</a> indicates that medical marijuana progress may well stall after this latest round of successful ballot initiatives. Recreational marijuana may continue to expand into states with legal medical marijuana but will ultimately hit a wall, too.</p>
<p>Our caution has to do with the particular way marijuana legalization has occurred in the United States: at the ballot box.</p>
<h2>Ballot initiatives have power</h2>
<p>So far, all but one of the recreational marijuana laws passed has occurred via ballot initiative, not through the state legislative process. Seven of the first eight medical marijuana laws – those in California, Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Maine and Nevada – were also adopted via ballot initiative.</p>
<p>Such <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Direct_Initiative">direct initiatives</a> – where citizens can put a policy on the ballot for approval – are a <a href="https://theconversation.com/direct-democracy-may-be-key-to-a-happier-american-democracy-52417">powerful</a>, if nontraditional, form of policymaking in the United States. </p>
<p>Rather than relying on lawmakers to write and pass legislation on certain issues – often, controversial ones – ballot initiatives harness public opinion. They have been used to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/same-sex-marriage-ballot-initiatives">legalize</a> or <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Marriage_and_family_on_the_ballot">restrict</a> same-sex marriage, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/us/the-california-ballot-measure-that-inspired-a-tax-revolt.html">place limitations on taxing and spending</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Minimum_wage_on_the_ballot">raise the minimum wage</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/2018_ballot_measures">much more</a>. Some are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/17/us/politics/california-ballot-initiatives-dominated-by-the-very-rich.html">funded by wealthy individuals</a> with specific business interests. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242527/original/file-20181026-7074-1d7zu9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242527/original/file-20181026-7074-1d7zu9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242527/original/file-20181026-7074-1d7zu9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242527/original/file-20181026-7074-1d7zu9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242527/original/file-20181026-7074-1d7zu9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242527/original/file-20181026-7074-1d7zu9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242527/original/file-20181026-7074-1d7zu9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Utah residents before the midterms show support for a ballot initiative that would legalize medical marijuana in the state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Medical-Marijuana-Utah/375aff1181844c17b161a156d27233b8/47/0">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even in states where ballot initiatives have little hope of passing, they can be an important force for policy change.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3184650">Ohio</a>, marijuana advocates in 2015 <a href="https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2015/12/issue_3_backers_spent_215_mill.html">spent over US$20 million</a> in an effort to legalize both medical and recreational marijuana in the same ballot initiative. Ohio voters overwhelmingly said no – but the campaign revealed <a href="https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2015/04/ohio_voters_favor_legalizing_m.html">broad support for a medical marijuana policy</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mpp.org/">Marijuana Policy Project</a>, an advocacy organization, said it would put <a href="https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/01/national_marijuana_group_plans_ohio_medical_marijuana_amendment_for_2016_ballot.html">medical marijuana</a> on Ohio’s ballot in 2016. In response, Ohio’s legislature <a href="https://www.clevescene.com/cleveland/what-you-need-to-know-about-ohios-medical-marijuana-law-in-effect-for-seven-months-and-changing-every-day/Content?oid=6827613">moved quickly</a> to craft and pass its own medical marijuana legislation.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/07/medical-marijuana-leaps/">Utah</a>, where Gov. Gary Herbert <a href="http://www.governing.com/topics/health-human-services/Despite-Upcoming-Medical-Marijuana-Vote-Utah-Governor-Promises-Special-Session-on-Issue-After-Election.html">opposed the expansive medical marijuana proposal</a> passed on Tuesday, lawmakers have already promised to supercede the initiative and pass marijuana <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/18/utah-lawmakers-hold/">legislation</a> that would be more acceptable to conservative state legislators and the influential Mormon Church. </p>
<h2>The limits of direct initiative</h2>
<p>So the ballot initiative is powerful. But our analysis suggests its potential for liberalizing marijuana access in the U.S. is nearly tapped out. </p>
<p>Of the 17 U.S. states that still have no form of legal marijuana, only five – Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska and Missouri – <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/chart-of-the-initiative-states.aspx">allow direct initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>The rest are mostly conservative places like South Carolina and Alabama, where <a href="https://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/05/_not_ready_for_that_how_alabam.html">legislatures have indicated</a> <a href="https://merryjane.com/news/south-carolina-lawmakers-fiercely-debate-new-medical-marijuana-bill">reluctance</a> to loosen restrictions. If voters there wanted medical or recreational marijuana, they would not have the option of bypassing policymakers to get the issue on the ballot.</p>
<p>Marijuana legalization won’t end with the 2018 midterms. There is still room for recreational marijuana to expand into the 22 – soon to be 24 – states that have legal medicinal marijuana. </p>
<p><a href="https://gazette.com/news/road-to-legalization-many-factors-including-tax-revenue/article_6b09995c-9761-54a9-8c74-3a05dca54633.html">History shows</a> that once people grow comfortable with medical marijuana – seeing its impacts on patients and tax revenues – full legalization often follows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242545/original/file-20181026-7068-1d444wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">California fully legalized marijuana in 2016, 20 years after legalizing medical marijuana, following a national trend.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Travel-California-Marijuana/230b114f08d44c129f300c756ab0c90f/12/0">AP Photo/Richard Vogel</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our analysis, the remaining 13 states are very unlikely to liberalize access to marijuana without a significant push by the federal government.</p>
<p>That’s unlikely, but not impossible, under the Trump administration.</p>
<p>Federal law still considers marijuana an illegal Schedule I drug under the <a href="https://www.dea.gov/controlled-substances-act">Controlled Substances Act</a>, meaning that as far as the U.S. government is concerned, the plant has no medical value.</p>
<p>The Obama administration took a hands-off approach to states’ legalization, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/resources/3052013829132756857467.pdf">allowing them to experiment</a>. But Trump’s first Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/01/09/why-it-will-be-difficult-for-jeff-sessions-to-put-the-genie-back-into-the-bottle-on-marijuana-policy/">directed Justice Department attorneys</a> to fully enforce federal law in legal marijuana states.</p>
<p>Quietly, however, the Trump administration has <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomangell/2018/10/10/trump-administration-seeks-public-comments-on-marijuana-reclassification/#4b3f65f5749a">sought public comments on reclassifying marijuana</a>. And the president himself has at times <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kriskrane/2018/07/11/why-president-trump-could-be-marijuanas-savior/#760b895c20a0">signaled support</a> for leaving marijuana up to the states. </p>
<p>With Sessions <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060256623439110146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">now officially out of the Trump administration</a>, the DOJ’s position on marijuana enforcement could change.</p>
<p>And Democrats, who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/midterm-elections-results.html">won control of the House</a> on Tuesday, have previously indicated that they could <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/weed-federally-legal-2019-blumenauer-739165/">push to remove marijuana as a Schedule I drug</a> as soon as next year.</p>
<p><em>This article is an updated version of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/marijuana-is-on-the-ballot-in-four-states-but-legalization-may-soon-stall-researchers-say-105342">story</a> originally published on Oct. 31, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two-thirds of all US states now have some kind of legal pot, and support for legalization has never been higher. But ballot initiatives can only take legalization so far, researchers say.Daniel J. Mallinson, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Administration, School of Public Affairs, Penn StateLee Hannah, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Wright State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.