tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/daniel-andrews-10792/articlesDaniel Andrews – La Conversation2023-09-27T04:59:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144572023-09-27T04:59:49Z2023-09-27T04:59:49ZWho is Jacinta Allan, Victoria’s new premier?<p>With the sudden announcement that Daniel Andrews will be stepping down as premier of Victoria at 5pm today, the Labor Party has been working to find the best replacement. </p>
<p>Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan, from the Socialist Left faction, was widely tipped to become the next premier, especially as she had Andrews’ endorsement. But some late challenges from the Right made it more complicated, with Transport Minister Ben Carroll also throwing his hat in the ring. </p>
<p>In the end, the party room voted for Allan as premier and Carroll as deputy.</p>
<p>But who is Jacinta Allan and what challenges await her as premier?</p>
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<h2>From Bendigo East to premier</h2>
<p>Allan, 50, is a highly experienced political operator. She became the youngest female elected to the Victorian parliament when she first won the seat of Bendigo East at age 25 in 1999. That was the election in which Steve Bracks led Labor to an unexpected victory over the Jeff Kennett-led Coalition.</p>
<p>After holding several ministerial positions, Allan was selected as the deputy leader of the Labor Party, and therefore deputy premier of Victoria, in 2022. </p>
<p>This was interpreted as a clear indication that Premier Daniel Andrews had anointed her to take over if he was to retire before the next election.</p>
<p>Allan comes from the Socialist Left – the same faction as Andrews. There have been some major shifts in the factions of Victorian Labor in recent months, with the Socialist Left strengthening its influence. </p>
<p>Following the 2022 election, for example, several MPs aligned with the Right faction moved to the Left. Within this context, Allan should enjoy strong support from parliamentary colleagues to become leader.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dan-andrews-leaves-office-as-a-titan-of-victorian-politics-who-drove-conservatives-to-distraction-214373">Dan Andrews leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics - who drove conservatives to distraction</a>
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<h2>Public profile</h2>
<p>Andrews has dominated the Victorian Labor Party since he won his first election in 2014. Such was his dominance, and the media’s interest in him, that other ministers have often struggled to increase their public profile. </p>
<p>Allan has arguably developed a stronger public profile than other potential challengers. However, this has also come at a difficult time for Labor in Victoria. The past few months presented the Andrews government with some major policy challenges. </p>
<p>The decision to back out of hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games, for instance, attracted some strong criticism. As the minister responsible for the games, Allan was the target of the opposition’s attacks on the government. Some Labor MPs were also reportedly critical of Allan’s performance in the infrastructure portfolio, when projects such as the Airport Rail project were delayed.</p>
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<h2>Victoria’s second female premier</h2>
<p>The late Joan Kirner made history in 1990 when she became the first woman to be premier of Victoria. Kirner replaced John Cain junior but was left with a range of major economic problems, which the onset of a national recession at the time made even more difficult.</p>
<p>Kirner was also left with a divided Labor Party that had been in power since Cain first led the party to victory in 1982. By 1992, voters in Victoria had turned against Labor. They handed the Kennett-led Coalition a comfortable victory in the election that year.</p>
<p>The circumstances of Allan’s rise share some similarities with those of Kirner. Rather than a recession, it has been COVID-19 that has had major social and economic impacts. The new premier must now work through the fallout from the pandemic. </p>
<p>These conditions remind us of a phenomenon called the “glass cliff”, where organisations often turn to women to take on leadership roles in less-than-ideal circumstances – and they must bear the consequences. </p>
<p>Indeed, Allan will have much work ahead to lead the state in the post-COVID period. She will also have to make what is near to being a ten-year government appear to have new and fresh ideas. By the time of the next election in 2026, it will be a 12-year government, which is hard to sell no matter its record.</p>
<p>At the same time, uniting the Labor Party and its fraught factional system will be high on the agenda.</p>
<p>Moreover, the new premier will have to face an opposition that may get greater visibility and resonate with more voters in the post-Andrews period, assuming the Liberal Party can present as a more united and cohesive force than it has managed to date.</p>
<p>With three years to go until the next election, Victorian politics will look very different with Daniel Andrews out of the picture.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-5-senior-ministers-quitting-victorias-andrews-government-a-sign-of-renewal-or-decline-185857">Is 5 senior ministers quitting Victoria’s Andrews government a sign of renewal – or decline?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new premier has a great deal of experience in politics, but inherits the premiership with the state facing a series of major economic problems.Zareh Ghazarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143732023-09-26T09:18:33Z2023-09-26T09:18:33ZDan Andrews leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics - who drove conservatives to distraction<p>Daniel Andrews, who has announced he will step down after nearly nine years as premier, leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics. An activist premier, a gifted political communicator and a hard man of politics, he has been an enormously consequential leader and one of national significance. He is the fourth-longest serving premier in Victorian history, and the longest-serving Labor premier. </p>
<p>While his government has had more than its share of controversies, such as the so called <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/mistake-to-arrest-red-shirt-campaigners-ombudsman-20220727-p5b4x3.html">“red shirts” scandal</a> and, more recently, the debacle of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cancelling-the-commonwealth-games-wont-come-cheaply-victoria-now-faces-the-legal-consequences-210054">cancelled 2026 Commonwealth Games</a>, Andrews will nonetheless be remembered as a progressive premier whose social reforms and massive infrastructure program have transformed the state. </p>
<p>And he was enormously successful with it, winning three elections, most recently another landslide victory in November 2022. Over that time, he has dominated his party and the state. And even after nine years in office, recent opinion polls have still shown his government enjoying a commanding lead over the opposition.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dan-andrews-quits-after-nine-years-as-premier-of-victoria-214372">Dan Andrews quits after nine years as premier of Victoria</a>
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<h2>The hard man rises</h2>
<p>From the time he entered office, Andrews was an activist and was assertive with power. There were at least two aspects at play here. The first that it’s his natural style – Andrews is a classic strong leader, command and control is his modus operandi. When he encounters an obstacle his instinct is to barge through it, and when he is criticised he doubles down, denying there is any case to answer. </p>
<p>The second aspect is that during his time as opposition leader between 2010 and 2014 he witnessed a becalmed Victorian government, led by Liberals Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine. By 2014 when Andrews won power, it was evident the public was yearning for activity. Victoria’s infrastructure was run down and no longer fit for purpose, unable to cope with its booming population. </p>
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<p>During his first term, Andrews unleashed a gargantuan infrastructure program, including railway level crossing removals, the metro rail link, the suburban rail loop and an array of road extensions and upgrades.</p>
<p>But his government wasn’t solely focussed on changing the physicality of the state. Andrews understood that in Victoria, perhaps more than anywhere else in Australia, there was leeway to pursue a progressive social agenda. He did this successfully, too, despite the inevitable controversy the reforms engendered, leading the way on the Safe Schools program, Voluntary Assisted Dying legislation, and a Treaty with Indigenous Victorians, among other issues. </p>
<p>In doing so, he made Victoria an incubator for social reform, providing a catalyst for other states to follow its lead on these issues.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-political-force-of-nature-despite-scandals-and-a-polarising-style-can-dan-do-it-again-in-victoria-187344">'A political force of nature': despite scandals and a polarising style, can 'Dan' do it again in Victoria?</a>
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<h2>A democratic deficit</h2>
<p>However, Andrews was not progressive on every issue. On law and order, for example, his instincts were conservative. For example, on his watch discriminatory bail laws contributed to Indigenous Australians being incarcerated in disproportionate numbers. </p>
<p>He has also chafed at being accountable, leading to a democratic deficit on his watch. His approach when under pressure - most recently demonstrated in the Commonwealth Games cancellation - is to double down and refuse to budge, taking a “nothing to see here” approach. </p>
<p>Under Andrews, power has become highly centralised in his private office, and there have been troubling signs of the politicisation of the public service. </p>
<p>His dominance has been reinforced by the dysfunction of the Liberal Party. Indeed, so supreme has Labor been that Victoria has effectively turned into a one-party state, an unhealthy state of affairs that should be of concern to all Victorians.</p>
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<h2>#IstandwithDan v #DictatorDan</h2>
<p>It was during the COVID pandemic that Andrews became a leader of national prominence. His daily press conferences during the darkest days of the crisis were eagerly watched across the nation.</p>
<p>With the harshest and longest lockdowns in the country, social media gave the impression of a deeply polarised state: those who said #IstandwithDan and those who were enraged by #DictatorDan. </p>
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<p>In truth, the polarisation was mostly a myth. Certainly, there were partisans at both ends of the spectrum, but the “Dictator Dan” group was only ever a noisy rump, egged on by the strident opposition to Andrews by conservative commentators at the Herald Sun and Sky News.</p>
<p>Indeed, one of the notable aspects of Andrews as a public figure is that his combination of progressive boldness, political effectiveness and forceful leadership has driven conservatives to distraction. They are hyperbolic about him - they characterised him as something akin to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, a supreme leader grown democratically untouchable. </p>
<p>Why? Because he was so effective - here was a socialist left premier leading one of the largest states in the country, and bucking political shibboleths such as that governments ought not go into substantial debt and deficit.</p>
<p>And he kept winning elections, and handsomely, making his conservative critics look foolish.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-political-leaders-are-electoral-gold-but-the-trick-is-in-them-knowing-when-to-stand-down-212119">Strong political leaders are electoral gold – but the trick is in them knowing when to stand down</a>
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<h2>The Dan vacuum</h2>
<p>Andrews kept winning because he was an activist, assertive, and got things done. Victorians didn’t necessarily love him, but they respected him. In more recent times his forcefulness had morphed into something darker. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-term-limits-for-australian-political-leaders-could-build-a-stronger-democracy-213063.">I have written</a>, his leadership had grown oppressive. He rarely smiled; he looked and sounded tired. His going in that sense is a healthy thing: it will disturb the power relations that have centred on him.</p>
<p>So what now? Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan has effectively been the heir apparent since Andrews anointed her as his successor last year during a major exit of ministers. </p>
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<p>He will leave an enormous vacuum, both in the party he has led for 13 years and the government he’s led for nine. It was once said that another political titan, Robert Menzies, <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-156908158/view">was the banyan tree</a> under which nothing would grow, and there is an element of that about Andrews.</p>
<p>Whoever becomes premier will have to tackle some significant economic challenges, including ballooning infrastructure spending, and the fallout from massive COVID spending. Moreover, by the time of the next state election in 2026, Labor will have been in power for 12 years, and no matter how dominant and activist a government might be, an “it’s time” factor will inevitably kick in.</p>
<p>“Glass cliff” is a term used in political science for situations in which women inherit a leadership position when things are falling apart. Will this be Allan’s lot?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Strangio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An activist premier, a gifted political communicator and a hard man of politics, Dan Andrews has been an enormously consequential leader and one of national significance.Paul Strangio, Professor of Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143722023-09-26T04:07:36Z2023-09-26T04:07:36ZDan Andrews quits after nine years as premier of Victoria<p>Dan Andrews has announced he is quitting, after nearly nine years as premier and three election wins. </p>
<p>Andrews’ surprise announcement came early Tuesday afternoon. He said his resignation would take effect at 5pm Wednesday. </p>
<p>He told a news conference it was not an easy decision “because as much as we have achieved together, there’s so much more to do. But when it’s time, it’s time”.</p>
<p>He said recently, in talking to his family, “thoughts of what life will be like after this job has started to creep in.</p>
<p>"I have always known that the moment that happens it is time to go and to give this privilege, this amazing responsibility, to someone else.”</p>
<p>Andrews, 51, who became premier in December 2014, has been a highly controversial state leader, instigating the toughest lockdowns in the country during COVID. But despite criticisms of that, he won the November 2022 election handsomely. Andrews said he had never been focused on being “100 per cent popular”.</p>
<p>He said he came to his decision fairly recently. But it was right to “go when they are asking you to stay”.</p>
<p>“I am worse than a workaholic,” he said, with every waking moment consumed with the work. He did not know what he would do next. He wouldn’t do much for a while.</p>
<p>Andrews said when he had previously declared he would stay for the duration of this parliamentary term, “it was true then”. He had since changed his mind. </p>
<p>The state caucus will meet on Wednesday to anoint a new premier, with Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan widely favoured. Andrews said if there was a ballot he would be voting.</p>
<p>He had spoken to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who was “a bit shocked”. “I thanked him for the partnership.” </p>
<p>Earlier this year another longstanding Labor premier, Mark McGowan in Western Australia, resigned unexpectedly. </p>
<p>Albanese said Andrews was a man of “great conviction, enormous compassion, and a fierce determination to make a difference”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is stepping down after nine years in the job.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133612023-09-13T04:06:08Z2023-09-13T04:06:08ZWill free teaching degrees fix the teacher shortage? It’s more complicated than that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547936/original/file-20230913-19-qwbuzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C27%2C6016%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/1_CMoFsPfso">Joanna Kosinska/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has opened a new front in the national campaign to <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/nsw-teachers-to-receive-largest-pay-rise-in-decades">attract and retain</a> teachers. Amid ongoing <a href="https://ministers.education.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/Teacher%20Workforce%20Shortages%20-%20Issues%20paper.pdf">teacher shortages</a>, Victoria <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-12/victoria-free-secondary-teaching-degrees/102844100">will offer fee-free education</a> for high school teaching degrees from next year. </p>
<p>This is similar to the <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/making-it-free-study-nursing-and-midwifery">free nursing degrees</a> Victoria announced in 2022 to create an “army of home-grown health workers”.</p>
<p>But is it going to fix the problem? </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/governments-are-making-nursing-degrees-cheaper-or-free-these-plans-are-not-going-to-help-attract-more-students-189547">Governments are making nursing degrees cheaper or 'free' – these plans are not going to help attract more students</a>
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<h2>What was announced?</h2>
<p>On Tuesday, the Victorian government announced a <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/making-teaching-free-back-our-school-workforce">A$230 million teaching package</a>. </p>
<p>This includes scholarships to cover the costs of a high school teaching degree. Students will be required to work in Victorian government schools for two years after they graduate. This is expected to support about 8,000 “future teachers”. </p>
<p>There is a further $27 million to provide up to $50,000 in incentives for graduates to work in hard-to-staff schools, both in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. There is also $95.7 million to support and mentor first year teachers. </p>
<p>It’s an attractive package. But it’s very unlikely to address the core of the problem. That’s because access to tertiary study and incentives to relocate are not the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-great-education-ministers-agree-the-teacher-shortage-is-a-problem-but-their-new-plan-ignores-the-root-causes-188660">root causes</a> of teachers shortages, particularly <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/00049441211066357">in rural and remote areas</a>. </p>
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<img alt="A student carries a stack of books." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547938/original/file-20230913-17-c5c0ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547938/original/file-20230913-17-c5c0ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547938/original/file-20230913-17-c5c0ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547938/original/file-20230913-17-c5c0ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547938/original/file-20230913-17-c5c0ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547938/original/file-20230913-17-c5c0ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547938/original/file-20230913-17-c5c0ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Victorian government hopes to encourage an extra 8,000 students into the teaching profession.</span>
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<h2>History tells us to be cautious</h2>
<p>History suggests free degrees will not see a surge of students applying to study teaching. </p>
<p>There was free university education in Australia between 1974 and 1989. Yet 1996 analysis showed the reintroduction of fees under the Hawke government was accompanied by <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ527928.pdf">an increase in university access</a>, rather than a reduction in student numbers.</p>
<p>Greater access to tertiary education also didn’t make it easier to find teachers for hard-to-staff schools. A 2019 <a href="https://researchsystem.canberra.edu.au/ws/portalfiles/portal/52676956/Researching_the_schoolhouse.pdf">University of Canberra review</a> looked at 20 years of evidence around attracting and retaining teachers in rural and remote communities, including financial incentives. It found “we are no closer to solving this perennial issue”.</p>
<p>International evidence <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03054985.2020.1775566">is mixed</a>. It shows financial incentives can lead to an immediate increase in enrolments for teaching courses, but this tapers off quickly once the incentive is removed (as appears to be the case here at the end of 2025). </p>
<p>Research also suggests cash incentives can convince some students who are open to the idea of teaching, yet undecided, to enrol. But there is <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/12/11/767">little chance</a> it will bring people into the profession who don’t already value teaching. </p>
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<span class="caption">People with no interest in teaching are unlikely to be convinced by a free degree.</span>
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<h2>It’s a question of motivation</h2>
<p>Like nursing, the motivation for pursuing a teaching career is driven by a <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203119273-1/people-choose-teaching-career-paul-richardson-helen-watt">range of factors</a> largely unrelated to pure financial incentives. </p>
<p>Those who choose, and remain in, teaching beyond their first few years are <a href="https://bera-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/berj.3887">typically attracted</a> by the intellectual stimulation, social benefits of teaching and opportunity to have a positive impact on people’s lives.</p>
<p>Students motivated predominantly by financial incentives may well get a reality check when they encounter their first practical experience in a classroom, particularly in a hard-to-staff school. </p>
<p>Schools also need to be positive and safe places to work if we want to attract and keep teachers. In a December 2022 review, the Productivity Commission noted “<a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/school-agreement/report/school-agreement-overview.pdf">low value</a>” administrative tasks meant teachers were not spending enough time teaching. </p>
<p>There have also been repeated reports about <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/teacher-made-to-apologise-for-giving-child-improvement-strategies-20230815-p5dwqa.html">unreasonable expectations</a> and even abuse from parents, as well as student behavioural issues. </p>
<p>Unfortunately many teachers report their work is leaving them <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-principals-are-reaching-crisis-point-pushed-to-the-edge-by-mounting-workloads-teacher-shortages-and-abuse-201777">stressed and burned out</a> – and wanting to leave the profession. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/they-phone-you-up-during-lunch-and-yell-at-you-why-teachers-say-dealing-with-parents-is-the-worst-part-of-their-job-191256">'They phone you up during lunch and yell at you' – why teachers say dealing with parents is the worst part of their job</a>
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<h2>We need to look beyond teaching degrees</h2>
<p>It’s good to see almost $96 million in the package to support first year teachers’ transition into the profession through “extra preparation time, mentoring and other professional support”. </p>
<p>This is consistent with the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/teaching-and-school-leadership/resources/national-teacher-workforce-action-plan">national plan</a> to address teacher shortages, released by federal and state education ministers in late 2022.</p>
<p>But we also need <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/00049441211066357">ongoing measures</a>. This includes professional and practical supports. </p>
<p>Adequate housing for teachers amid a housing affordability crisis <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13384-023-00621-z">remains a challenge</a>. The impracticality of being posted to a regional school without housing is self-evident.</p>
<p>Community and social connections <a href="https://ro.ecu.edu.au/ajte/vol45/iss5/2/">are also vital</a> for new teachers who move to non-metropolitan areas for work.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-wont-solve-the-teacher-shortage-until-we-answer-these-4-questions-203843">We won't solve the teacher shortage until we answer these 4 questions</a>
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<h2>More questions</h2>
<p>This package is an important and welcome response to teacher shortages. But it is unlikely to fix the problem and leaves us with some questions.</p>
<p>The funding is only for high school teachers. Could this attract students potentially interested in primary teaching and make primary school supply issues a greater problem? </p>
<p>The funding is only for enrolments in 2024 and 2025 and only for government schools. What happens in two years’ time? Could the package be extended to private and Catholic schools?</p>
<p>A two-year package with free degrees may seem like good politics (and it makes a good headline). But we need to look at the bigger picture and examine issues such as working conditions, professional development, and the way our society supports teachers so they can keep doing the essential work they do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Kidson works in the National School of Education at the Australian Catholic University. ACU provides initial teacher education in Victoria.</span></em></p>The Victorian government has announced a $230 million package to encourage an extra 8,000 ‘future teachers’ into the profession.Paul Kidson, Senior Lecturer in Educational Leadership, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099762023-07-21T06:39:16Z2023-07-21T06:39:16ZVictoria’s Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/support-for-victorian-government-and-premier-daniel-andrews-plunges-after-cancellation-of-commonwealth-games">Victorian Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll. The sample size was 1,046 people.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up seven since May), 33% Labor (down nine), 12.5% Greens (steady), 10.5% independents (up 1.5) and 8.5% others (up 0.5). Support for independents is likely to be overstated as not all seats will attract viable independents at an election.</p>
<p>In a forced choice, voters disapproved of Andrews by 55–45% (compared to a 52.5% approval in May). This is the first time since becoming premier after the 2014 state election that Andrews has had a higher disapproval than approval rating in Morgan polls. Andrews led Liberal leader John Pesutto as better premier by 52.5–47.5%, a drastic reduction from his 64–36% lead in May.</p>
<p>By 58–42%, voters also supported the cancellation of the games. However, the 58% who supported this would have included voters who thought the government should never have offered to hold the games in the first place.</p>
<p>The plunge for Labor in this poll is likely due to the public perception the government has been incompetent in its handling of the games ordeal.</p>
<h2>Labor maintains huge lead in national Resolve poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-approval-rating-lowest-since-election-but-still-well-ahead-of-dutton-20230717-p5dork.html?btis=">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,610 people, Labor had 39% of the primary vote (down one since June), the Coalition 30% (steady), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one) and others 2% (steady).</p>
<p>Resolve does not publish a two-party estimate until close to elections, but an estimate based on 2022 preference flows gives Labor about a 58.5–41.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since June. Resolve’s polls have been much better for Labor than others since the 2022 election.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% good (down two points) and 35% poor (<a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">steady</a>), for a net approval of +16, down two points. </p>
<p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -15. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 51–21% (compared to 53–22% in June).</p>
<p>On economic management, Labor led the Liberals by 35–31%, little changed from a 34–31% Labor lead in June. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 31–24%, an increase from a 27–23% Labor lead in June.</p>
<p>By 51–37%, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/half-of-australians-on-financial-brink-as-living-costs-bite-20230717-p5dorj.html">voters also agreed</a> if they had a major expense of a few thousand dollars, they would struggle to afford it (46–41% disagreed with this premise in February). </p>
<p>Just 5% thought the economy would improve in the next month, though support was higher with longer time periods (28% for next year, 41% for next five years).</p>
<p>The survey respondents were told <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/majority-of-voters-believe-migration-intake-is-too-high-20230718-p5dp69.html">permanent migration into Australia</a> was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels in 2020-21, and that to make up for this, immigration is likely to reach 350,000–400,000 this year before falling to 320,000 next year.</p>
<p>On these new levels of immigration, 59% thought them to be too high, 25% said they were about right and just 3% too low. By 38–34%, voters supported increasing the minimum wage for temporary skilled visa holders from $53,900 to $70,000 a year.</p>
<h2>Federal Labor maintains lead in Morgan poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan weekly federal poll</a>, conducted July 10–16 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9434-roy-morgan-update-july-18-2023">sample</a> of 1,401 people, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47%, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. This is the second successive 1.5-point gain for the Coalition in this poll. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 35% Coalition, 12.5% Greens and 17% for all others. Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1681554510425264128">Kevin Bonham</a> said Morgan’s respondent allocated preferences were unusually bad for Labor this week.</p>
<h2>Fadden byelection near-final result</h2>
<p>With nearly all votes counted in last <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm">Saturday’s federal byelection</a> for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.4–36.6%, a 2.8% swing to the LNP since the 2022 election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 49.1% LNP (up 4.5%), 22.0% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.2%), 7.3% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.6%). Turnout is currently 71.5%.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: Labor holds big lead, but down since May</h2>
<p>A New South Wales <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/majority-still-liked-and-respected-berejiklian-but-one-third-changed-minds-after-corrupt-finding-20230720-p5dpum.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal June and July Resolve polls, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote (down three since May), the Coalition 32% (up one), the Greens 10% (up one), independents 11% (up one) and others 5% (steady).</p>
<p>Bonham <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1682206140715909121">estimated</a> a Labor two-party lead of 58.5–41.5% from these primary votes. Labor Premier Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman by 39–12% as preferred premier (compared to 42–12% in May).</p>
<p>Respondents in the poll were told the Independent Commission Against Corruption had found “serious corrupt conduct” concerning former Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s romantic relationship with a former MP. </p>
<p>However, by 51–25%, voters agreed they still liked and respected Berejiklian. By 40–34%, they agreed Berejiklian should not have resigned as premier based on the ICAC report.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time since becoming premier in 2014, more voters disapprove of Dan Andrews than approve of him in the Morgan poll.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100602023-07-19T07:50:14Z2023-07-19T07:50:14ZWord from The Hill: On ditching the Commonwealth Games, the Voice pamphlet, Labor’s factions<p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn discuss Premier Dan Andrews’ surprise decision to pull Victoria out of hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games. They also canvass the official yes and no cases issued this week for the Voice referendum, and Labor frontbencher Andrew Leigh’s strong speech warning of the excessive level of factional control within the Labor Party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210060/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, @michellegrattan and politics editor @amandadunn10Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099612023-07-18T07:23:10Z2023-07-18T07:23:10Z‘Existential questions’: is this the beginning of the end of the Commonwealth Games?<p>Premier Daniel Andrews announced on Tuesday that the Victorian government has withdrawn from its commitment to host the 2026 Commonwealth Games, citing an anticipated cost blowout from an original estimate of A$2.6 billion to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/18/australia-commonwealth-games-2026-victoria-cancels-event-after-funding-shortfall">over $6-$7 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Commonwealth Games Australia chief executive Craig Phillips described the decision as “beyond disappointing”. Phillips questions the government’s figures, <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/07/18/commonwealth-games-federation/">saying that the</a> cost of running the Gold Coast event in 2018 was $1.2 billion and the 2022 Birmingham Games was $1.8 billion.</p>
<p>The government said existing funding set aside for the games will remain invested in regional projects intended to create an event “legacy”. </p>
<p>Aside from the viability of the 2026 event, Victoria pulling out of hosting the event raises the broader question of whether the Commonwealth Games will survive.</p>
<h2>How has this happened?</h2>
<p>Victoria secured the Commonwealth Games in April 2022 with a unique multi-region model that sought to bring the event to regional Victoria.</p>
<p>Despite the obvious risks and costs associated with decentralising a major event away from pre-existing infrastructure in Melbourne, Andrews <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-confirms-bid-for-2026-commonwealth-games-20220216-p59wvp.html">noted</a> at bid submission that</p>
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<p>Victoria is Australia’s sporting state, and, if awarded the 2026 Commonwealth Games would demonstrate to the world a new way to deliver the competition.</p>
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<p>Andrews made clear the decision to withdraw was entirely financial, stating that the new estimated cost of potentially over $7 billion “does not represent value for money”.</p>
<p>When pressed at his media conference to provide accountability as to how his government’s costing could have been so grossly inaccurate, Andrews said that certain event costs were unforeseeable.</p>
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<p>What could not be reasonably foreseen, and was not foreseen, was the costs incurred in terms of services, security, transport […] there were estimates that were made and those estimates are clearly well and truly under the actual cost.</p>
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<p>The Commonwealth Games Federation and Commonwealth Games Australia dispute these costs estimates. They <a href="https://www.commonwealthsport.com/news/3594069/response-to-victoria-government-2026-commonwealth-game-host-withdrawal">signalled</a> the blame for any cost overruns lies with the Victorian government.</p>
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<p>The numbers quoted to us today of $6 billion are 50% more than those advised to the Organising Committee board at its meeting in June. </p>
<p>Since awarding Victoria the Games, the Government has made decisions to include more sports and an additional regional hub, and changed plans for venues, all of which have added considerable expense, often against the advice of the Commonwealth Games Federation and Commonwealth Games Australia.</p>
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<h2>The implications</h2>
<p>The decision to withdraw from hosting the event will still incur costs. This includes pre-existing costs related to staffing contracts, renting premises and marketing, as well as to-be-determined contractual break costs as negotiated with the Commonwealth Games Federation.</p>
<p>The financial costs of the withdrawal, however, may pale against the longer-term reputational damage done to Victoria and perhaps Australia more broadly.</p>
<p>This decision may also damage Andrews’ reputation. In proposing an untested regional games delivery model, it was incumbent on the government to adopt a particularly rigorous process to ensure the the event’s viability, which does not appear to have been done.</p>
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<h2>Is Victoria still Australia’s ‘sporting capital’?</h2>
<p>Victoria has long proclaimed itself Australia’s (and even the world’s) <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/INFORMIT.143058285756777">sporting capital</a>. The state has developed an unparalleled portfolio of major sport events since the 1980s, and become a global exemplar in executing major events in the process. </p>
<p>But withdrawing from the 2026 Commonwealth Games arguably represents Australia’s most prominent sporting failure of the past half-century, and is a significant reputational blow to Victoria’s sporting pre-eminence.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-cities-hosting-major-sporting-events-is-a-double-edged-sword-76929">For cities, hosting major sporting events is a double-edged sword</a>
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<p>What’s more, in an <a href="https://inqld.com.au/news/2023/07/12/take-that-melbourne-brisbane-now-rated-as-australias-sports-capital/">annual global ranking of sport cities</a> published last month, before the Commonwealth Games decision, Brisbane (15th) leapfrogged Melbourne (23rd) and Sydney (44th) to become Australia’s top ranked.</p>
<p>Brisbane’s success isn’t only attributable to its impending hosting of the 2032 Olympics. Its ranking also recognises that the FIFA Women’s World Cup is being played predominantly in the north-east Australian states due to <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/soccer/not-a-realistic-option-why-the-matildas-aren-t-playing-at-the-mcg-20230717-p5doxk.html">stadium challenges</a> associated with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/dec/03/melbourne-falls-short-in-womens-world-cup-venue-allocation">AFL-orientated</a> Victoria.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, South Australia’s recent sporting successes include the hosting of <a href="https://www.afl.com.au/news/906620/afl-to-gather-round-again-in-sa-for-next-three-years">AFL Gather Round</a>, LIV Golf and recent procurement of the <a href="https://supernetball.com.au/news/location-2024-ssn-grand-final-revealed#:%7E:text=Adelaide%20will%20host%20the%202024,at%20the%20Adelaide%20Entertainment%20Centre.">2024 Super Netball</a> final from Victoria.</p>
<p>Victoria’s grip on the “sports capital” title is increasingly tenuous.</p>
<h2>The end of the Commonwealth Games?</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most critical question is the viability not only of the 2026 Games, but also the broader Commonwealth Games movement.</p>
<p>Victoria’s withdrawal continues a trend of recent instability. In 2017, the South African city of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-games-commonwealth-durban-idUSKBN16K1UN">Durban</a> was stripped of 2022 hosting rights for a failure to meet key obligations around governance, venues and funding.</p>
<p>However, whereas the Commonwealth Games Federation had just under 2,000 days to secure a replacement host for 2022, Victoria’s withdrawal has occurred only 973 days prior to the start of the event.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/major-sports-events-are-they-worth-it-80691">Major sports events: are they worth it?</a>
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<p>The movement’s broader existence is perilous given there’s a shrinking pool of host cities. Victoria was the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/sport/melbourne-set-to-step-into-breach-as-2026-commonwealth-games-host-city-20220118-p59p6r.html">only formal applicant</a> for the 2026 edition. </p>
<p>This is a challenge faced by large sporting events more broadly, with potential applicants <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Sport-Management-in-Australia-Organisation-Development-and-Global-Perspectives/Karg-Shilbury-Phillips-Rowe-Fujak/p/book/9781032330242?_ga=1233395845.1684800000">increasingly wary</a> of the significant costs.</p>
<p>Even the summer and winter Olympic Games have increasingly struggled to attract applicants. This resulted in the <a href="https://olympics.com/ioc/2024-2028-host-city-election">unprecedented</a> move to simultaneously award the 2024 and 2028 summer games to Paris and Los Angeles in 2017 – normally the summer games are awarded to one city at a time.</p>
<p>With seemingly little global appetite to host the event, and broader cultural discussions in Australia and abroad surrounding the role of the monarchy, existential questions surround the Commonwealth Games movement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A shrinking pool of host cities, high costs, and cultural questions about the monarchy: why the Commonwealth Games are under threat.Hunter Fujak, Lecturer in Sport Management, Deakin UniversityDamien Whitburn, Lecturer, Sport Management, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2076282023-06-15T23:35:54Z2023-06-15T23:35:54ZWoeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532303/original/file-20230615-18996-h20bv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/can-t-get-much-lower-pesutto-s-coalition-sinks-to-new-low-in-polls-20230614-p5dgeq.html?btis=">Victorian state Resolve</a> poll for The Age, conducted with the federal May and June Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,000, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote (down one since April), the Coalition just 26% (down four), the Greens 15% (up five), independents 12% (steady) and others 6% (up one).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give two party estimates until near elections, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/06/15/resolve-strategic-labor-41-coalition-26-greens-15-in-victoria/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated this would be 62-38 or 63-37 to Labor, a three or four point gain for Labor since April.</p>
<p>The Victorian state November 2022 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results/party-totals">election result</a> was already bad for the Coalition, when an eight-year-old Labor government was re-elected by a 54.9-45.1 margin. To go backwards by seven or eight points since that election is woeful. </p>
<p>The 11-point primary vote gap is likely to be the narrowest gap between the Coalition and the Greens in any federal or mainland state poll. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Tasmanian_state_election">2002 Tasmanian state election</a> had just a 9.2-point gap between the Liberals and the Greens.</p>
<p>Resolve state and federal polls have been the most friendly for Labor since the 2022 federal election. But a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9218-roy-morgan-survey-on-voting-intention-in-victoria-may-23-2023">Victorian Morgan poll</a> in May gave Labor a 61.5-38.5 lead. It’s likely Liberal infighting, particularly over Moira Deeming, is undermining their appeal as a viable opposition.</p>
<p>There will be a byelection in the Liberal-held seat of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/warrandyte-by-election-2023">Warrandyte</a> later this year after Liberal MP Ryan Smith said he would resign in early July. The Liberals won Warrandyte by a 54.2-45.8 margin over Labor at the last state election. But the current polls imply that Warrandyte is winnable for Labor.</p>
<p>Labor incumbent Daniel Andrews led Liberal leader John Pesutto by 49-26 as preferred premier, a slight widening from 49-28 in April. In questions on the recent state budget, voters supported payroll tax hikes by 40-26, but they were opposed by 39-33 to a land tax increase.</p>
<h2>Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats, while WA gains one</h2>
<p>ABC election analyst <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/abs-population-statistics-confirm-wa-to-gain-a-new-house-seat-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-seats/">Antony Green</a> said the determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state or territory is entitled to will be made in late July. On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release">population data</a> this determination will be based on.</p>
<p>At the next federal election, New South Wales will be reduced from 47 to 46 seats and Victoria from 39 to 38, while Western Australia will increase from 15 to 16. Other states and territories will be unchanged, with Queensland on 30 seats, South Australia ten, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the NT two. The total number of House seats will drop from 151 to 150.</p>
<p>We won’t know the political impact of these changes until redistributions of the states with changed seat numbers are at least in draft form. Green said redistributions should be completed by July 2024. If the next election is a normal election for the full House and half the Senate, it will be held between August 2024 and May 2025.</p>
<h2>Federal Resolve poll: Labor still has huge lead</h2>
<p>I covered the contradictory Voice polls from this week’s Resolve and Essential polls on Tuesday. Voting intentions and other polling are below.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/resolve-first-national-poll-to-have-no-ahead-in-voice-referendum-but-essential-has-yes-far-ahead-207015">Resolve first national poll to have 'no' ahead in Voice referendum, but Essential has 'yes' far ahead</a>
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<p>In the federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-gains-some-ground-as-labor-slips-in-poll-20230613-p5dg36.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted June 6-11 from a sample of 1,606, Labor had 40% of the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">primary vote</a> (down two since May), the Coalition 30% (steady), the Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one), the UAP 2% (steady), independents 8% (steady) and others 2% (steady).</p>
<p>An estimate based on preference flows at the 2022 election gives Labor about a 59-41 two party lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since May. Resolve has been the most pro-Labor pollster.</p>
<p>On Anthony Albanese, 53% said he was doing a good job and 35% a poor job, for a net approval of +18, down nine points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was -20, “similar” to the outcome in May. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 53-22, a slight narrowing from 53-20.</p>
<p>Labor was thought best on econmic management by 34-31 over the Liberals, a narrowing from 38-29. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 27-23, in from 35-23 in May.</p>
<p>By 56-26, voters <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/rba-boss-should-lose-job-after-interest-rate-hikes-but-australians-expect-more-to-come-20230613-p5dg37.html">thought the Reserve Bank</a> was doing a poor job, instead of a good job, and by 52-17 they thought the government should replace Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe when his term ends in September, rather than extend his appointment.</p>
<p>On real wages, 55% (up four since May) expected their income to stay at the same dollar amount but fall behind inflation this year, 20% (down two) keep pace with inflation, 9% (steady) decrease and 5% (down two) increase above inflation.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor leads by 52-42 including undecided</h2>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted June 7-11 from a sample of 1,123, Labor led by 52-42 including undecided (52-43 last fortnight). Primary votes were 32% Labor (down two), 32% Coalition (up one), 16% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).</p>
<p>Labor was trusted over the Coalition to handle <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/13-june-2023">six economic issues</a>, with its closest lead a one-point margin on reducing government debt (32-31). On interest rates, 63% thought they would continue to rise, 30% that we have reached the peak but they won’t go down for a while and 7% thought they would start to fall soon.</p>
<p>By 55-15, voters supported a ban on high-risk uses of Artificial Intelligence (AI). On regulation of AI, 48% thought new laws should be created, 40% existing laws should be better enforced and 12% thought it should be left up to the market.</p>
<p>By 79-9 voters thought social classes still exist in Australia. Asked which class they belonged to, 49% said they were middle class, 30% working class and 4% upper class.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 56-44 to Labor</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan’s weekly federal</a> poll, conducted June 5-11 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9384-roy-morgan-update-june-14-2023">sample</a> of 1,393, Labor led by 56-44, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Labor, 33.5% Coalition, 13% Greens and 18.5% for all Others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a shocking state election result, the Victorian opposition has slumped further in the latest polls.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060662023-05-23T12:02:24Z2023-05-23T12:02:24ZVictoria bites $117 billion bullet, begins the long march of land tax reform<p>The Andrews government’s ninth budget is its toughest. The bill from Victoria’s COVID experience, as well as the state government’s ambitious infrastructure spending, has finally come due.</p>
<p>The pandemic has added more than $30 billion to the state’s total net debt, bringing the total to a whooping $117 billion. (New South Wales’s state debt, by comparison, is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/1-3b-in-a-month-nsw-hit-by-pre-poll-budget-blowout-20230308-p5cqke.html">about $80 billion</a>.)</p>
<p>Victoria’s floods in 2022 have added to the debt. But so too has the Andrews goverment’s borrowing for its $90 billion “<a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/">Big Build</a>”, encompassing projects from removing Melbourne’s level crossings, extending Melbourne’s <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/metro-tunnel">underground rail network</a> and building <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/suburban-rail-loop">a suburban rail loop</a>.</p>
<p>The state’s debt load was manageable when interest rates were low. But with borrowing rates now almost 4% and rising, interest payments are swallowing increasing amounts of the government’s budget. Interest payments on the debt are expected to be $5.5 billion in the 2023-24 financial year, rising to $8 billion by 2026-27.</p>
<p>There are only two ways to fix this: reduce spending or increase taxes. Andrews and his treasurer Tim Pallas have chosen to do a bit of both, with a ten-year plan to pay down the $30 billion COVID debt.</p>
<h2>Less infrastructure spending, more taxes</h2>
<p>The Victorian government has already announced it will delay several infrastructure projects. The Melbourne Airport rail link and the Geelong rail upgrade have been put on ice due to the federal government’s ongoing review of infrastructure projects. If they are delayed, as seems likely, they will lower the debt burden of the state.</p>
<p>This will be a shame for Melbourne’s frequent flyers, but is probably the right call. Infrastructure Australia says the construction sector is already at capacity on large infrastructure projects. This significantly increases the likelihood of cost and time blowouts. Infrastructure Australia expects the (recently widened) Tullamarine Freeway won’t reach capacity for at least another decade, so delaying the rail link is probably the best course of action.</p>
<p>To help pay down the debt, a suite of tax hikes has been implemented, primarily rises in payroll tax (falling predominantly on large businesses) and land tax (which is largely paid by landlords). </p>
<p>The measures are expected to raise more than $8 billion over the next four years, although they will be put in place for a decade.</p>
<h2>Reforming land tax</h2>
<p>Beyond the immediate task of paying down debt, the Victorian government has taken on the task of land tax reform, proposing to eliminate stamp duty on all industrial and commercial land in favour of an annual land tax.</p>
<p>No changes affect residential land, at least for now. But this could change if the reform proves popular.</p>
<p>Land taxes are the most efficient, and hardest to dodge, form of taxation. </p>
<p>Taxes on labour, such as income tax, can <a href="https://taxpolicy.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ttpi-working-papers/11429/marginal-excess-burden-taxation-overlapping-generations-model">discourage work</a>. Taxes on company profits can discourage investment and lead businesses to set up shop elsewhere. Land cannot be moved, and taxing it does not discourage its use.</p>
<p>The biggest problem with replacing stamp duty with land tax is that it often takes a lot of time and money for a fair transition to occur. In the Australian Capital Territory, a transition that began in 2012 is <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6203608/the-act-governments-plan-for-rates-reform-and-what-comes-next-explained/">taking 20 years</a>. The Victorian government proposes doing it in ten years, with further details to be released later this year.</p>
<p>The next transaction to occur after July 2024 will still attract stamp duty, but transitions after that initial one will be shifted to an annual land tax model.</p>
<p>The Andrews government also has a plan to phase out taxes on business insurance over the next ten years. </p>
<p>This small, but highly inefficient, tax has long been criticised by economists as it has punished businesses that seek to mitigate risk by buying public liability or professional indemnity. Removing it, albeit slowly over the next decade, will help the Victorian economy grow over the coming years.</p>
<p>Budgets are all about choices. The Victorian government has no easy choices. </p>
<p>Faced with a mountain of debt, it has outlined a plan for paying down the debt with a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts. The job remains far from complete, but this budget is a decent first step to get Victoria’s finances back on track.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Andrews government has made a decent first step to reduce Victoria’s mountain of debt by $30 billion over the next decade.Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041912023-04-20T07:36:10Z2023-04-20T07:36:10ZThe rise of unaccountable ministerial advisors: why Victoria’s IBAC report should concern all Australians<p>This week, Victoria’s Independent Broad-Based Anti-corruption Commission (known as IBAC) <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/19/victoria-ibac-ministerial-adviser-union-contract">issued a finding</a> of “improper influence” on a public contract issued by the Victorian government in 2018.</p>
<p>IBAC did not find any “corrupt conduct” under the IBAC Act and no minister was directly involved.</p>
<p>On this basis, it might be possible to dismiss this report as the regrettable result of a complex governmental apparatus. After all, this was a small contract in the grand scheme of Victorian state spending, and you might think the news cycle should move on to focus on more important issues.</p>
<p>But this report should not be ignored. It casts important light on a growing threat to Australian parliamentary democracy: the exercise of public power by unaccountable ministerial advisors.</p>
<h2>Operation Daintree</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/publications-and-resources/article/operation-daintree-special-report">Operation Daintree report</a> investigated a $1.2 million contract between the Victorian health department and the Health Education Federation (HEF) to provide occupational violence and aggression training to health workers. The contract was signed in the hours before Victoria’s government went into caretaker mode prior to the 2018 election (the government can’t sign contracts in caretaker mode).</p>
<p>Despite having no relevant experience in this kind of training, HEF received this contract without a competitive tender process.</p>
<p>IBAC found two ministerial advisors “improperly influenced” this contract. These advisors – who are employed by the premier under Victorian law – put pressure on key public servants to award the contract to HEF.</p>
<p>Former Health Minister Jenny Mikakos <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/daintree-exposes-fundamental-weakness-in-how-victoria-is-governed-20230419-p5d1ko.html">described</a> this pressure as a reflection of the interest of the “premier’s office” in “accommodat[ing] any union concerns”.</p>
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<h2>A threat to responsible government</h2>
<p>Australian democracy is built on the concept of “responsible government” in which parliament holds governmental ministers to account through lawmaking and oversight. Although parliament doesn’t actually prosecute governmental misconduct, its role as overseer generates crucial information and publicity that holds these governmental ministers politically accountable.</p>
<p>Operation Daintree details an emerging gap in this traditional form of democratic oversight and accountability: the rise of powerful ministerial advisors. </p>
<p>Ministerial advisors are more powerful than ever at all levels of Australian government. For instance, former prime minister Tony Abbott’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, was widely regarded as one of the powerful players in the federal government at the time. One Liberal Party insider <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/pops/Papers_on_Parliament_68/Between_Law_and_Convention_Ministerial_Advisers_in_the_Australian_System_of_Responsible_Government">said of her</a>: “She’s tough, she’s a player, she makes demands, she gives directions, she bawls people out.” </p>
<p>While these advisors play an increasingly powerful role in governance, they tend to operate in the shadows. In contrast to the rigorous standards of independence for public servants, ministerial advisors are political appointees who are largely accountable only to their minister. For instance, advisors are generally thought to be <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UTasLawRw/2016/5.html">immune from testifying to parliament</a>. </p>
<p>In this position, they can <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Gridlock-Grattan-Report.pdf">operate</a> in a way they think the minister would support, while providing plausible deniability to that same minister. </p>
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<p>This problem isn’t unique to Victoria. It also emerged in the so-called “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/bridget-mckenzie-gaetjens-report-sports-grants/101627502">sports rorts</a>” scandal under former prime minister Scott Morrison. </p>
<p>In that case, Commonwealth grants were awarded to sports clubs in important constituencies in the upcoming election. The relevant minister, Bridget McKenzie, sought to <a href="https://theconversation.com/sports-rorts-shows-the-government-misunderstands-the-public-service-130796">deflect blame</a> for this allocation of money onto unnamed advisors. </p>
<p>Associate Professor Yee-Fui Ng at Monash University describes their rise broadly as <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Rise-of-Political-Advisors-in-the-Westminster-System/Ng/p/book/9781032095561">contributing</a> to the “erosion” of ministerial responsibility. </p>
<h2>Injecting accountability back into the system</h2>
<p>How can we address this increasing problem of unaccountable ministerial advisors? </p>
<p>One option is expanding the Ministerial Staff Code of Conduct to cover more of their activities. This would go some way to bringing them out of the shadows.</p>
<p>But another vital reform is to shine more light on advisors. Parliament must hold ministers – including the prime minister or premier – responsible for the actions of their advisors. This should happen through an independent parliamentary committee that has the explicit legal authority to call both ministers and their advisors to answer for their actions.</p>
<p>IBAC hints at this very solution in the report. In the report, IBAC says the Victorian parliament may hold the premier “personally responsible” for “the conduct of his staff and its consequences, where he was aware of their actions or ought reasonably to have been aware of them”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-anti-corruption-commission-actually-stamp-out-corruption-in-government-191759">Will the National Anti-Corruption Commission actually stamp out corruption in government?</a>
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<p>The obvious institution to do this would be an independent Parliamentary Ethics Committee, which IBAC and the ombudsman called for in the <a href="https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/docs/default-source/special-reports/recommendations---operation-watts-special-report---july-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=123e1e5f_6">Operation Watts report</a> in 2022. </p>
<p>This committee should have the power to call witnesses and further investigate unethical conduct that does not meet the definition of corrupt conduct. This kind of parliamentary inquiry would shine important light on bad governance and serve as a powerful deterrent for further actions like this.</p>
<p>This solution carries broader lessons, too. It suggests that improving governmental integrity – particularly the kind of so-called “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-20/victoria-ibac-corruption-report-labor-daniel-andrews-government/102242862">grey corruption</a>” at issue here – isn’t just the business of anti-corruption bodies. It also must be the business of parliament. </p>
<p>Independent committee scrutiny of unethical behaviour is just one example of parliamentary involvement. It could also include stronger legal requirements that ministers (including the premier or prime minister) respond openly to questions from parliament.</p>
<p>Overall, these reforms are critical in ensuring parliament is restored as the <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/rebuilding-victoria-s-forgotten-integrity-institution">original integrity institution</a> in Australian parliamentary democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204191/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Partlett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The report casts important light on a growing threat to Australian parliamentary democracy: the exercise of public power by unaccountable ministerial advisors.William Partlett, Associate Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950962022-11-28T05:39:54Z2022-11-28T05:39:54ZVictoria faces a grave climate and energy crisis. The new government’s policies must be far bolder<p>The Andrews Labor government has been returned in Victoria. It must now reckon with two particularly crucial challenges: runaway climate change and wartime-scale energy costs. </p>
<p>Victorians are still reeling from rare <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-in-victoria-are-uncommon-heres-why-theyre-happening-now-and-how-they-compare-to-the-past-192391">major flooding</a> in which the state’s largest dam, Dartmouth, spilled over. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/market-performance-and-reporting/victorian-energy-market-report">electricity prices</a> in Victoria are rising dramatically.</p>
<p>The Andrews government has signalled a major shakeup of Victoria’s energy sector. Its pre-election <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/victoria-makes-gains-in-race-to-net-zero-with-new-targets/#:%7E:text=Victoria%20has%20released%20new%20emissions,target%20of%2095%25%20by%202035.">commitments</a> – a 95% renewable electricity target by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2045 – are definite moves in the right direction. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/22/daniel-andrews-plans-to-revive-the-state-electricity-commission-what-will-it-mean-for-victorias-power">plans to</a> reinstate the State Electricity Commission, including a constitutional amendment to cement this change permanently, speaks to the government’s intention to regain control of the electricity market and skyrocketing energy prices. </p>
<p>These are significant pledges and daunting tasks to accomplish. But the Victorian government must go further to secure the energy sector and take stronger climate action. </p>
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<span class="caption">Vcitoria’s Loy Yang coal-fired power station will shut a decade earlier than expected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Reducing energy costs</h2>
<p>Today’s high energy costs are driven primarily by fossil fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-gas-prices-go-from-10-a-gigajoule-to-800-a-gigajoule-an-expert-on-the-energy-crisis-engulfing-australia-184304">supply constraints</a>. The reduction in gas supply due to sanctions on Russia has exposed the delicate balance of supply and demand, and the fragility of the global fossil-based energy system. </p>
<p>For more than a decade, specialists have known the long-term solution to reduce electricity prices and cost volatility: a large-scale shift to renewable sources of energy. </p>
<p>This would <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-key-measures-in-the-suite-of-new-reforms-to-deal-with-australias-energy-crisis-184554">shield us from</a> short-term supply and demand shocks because the cost of renewables-produced wholesale energy is fixed at construction, with no variable costs such as fuel. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-gas-prices-go-from-10-a-gigajoule-to-800-a-gigajoule-an-expert-on-the-energy-crisis-engulfing-australia-184304">Why did gas prices go from $10 a gigajoule to $800 a gigajoule? An expert on the energy crisis engulfing Australia</a>
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<p>Shifting to renewables would also make electricity cheaper than coal and gas in countries with major wind and sun advantages, <a href="https://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Annual-Wind-Report-2022_screen_final_April.pdf">such as Australia</a> and Indonesia. And it would decouple electricity production from strongly geographically concentrated sources of fossil fuels such as in the middle east.</p>
<p>But realistically, in the next two years or so the Victorian and Australian governments can only manage energy prices by curbing the worst excesses of an unfettered free market operation in natural gas and retail electricity. </p>
<p>We are still working with precisely the same market frameworks as when deregulation started in 1998. Victoria, and the other states, need to accept that this framework has failed to produce benefits to consumers, particularly for households.</p>
<p>For example, in the decade to June 2013, electricity prices for Australian households <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/pubs/briefingbook44p/energyprices">increased by an average 72%</a> in real terms.</p>
<p>We must go back to the drawing board to determine what the energy market should look like. In the meantime, Australian states and territories must consider reimposing price caps on energy retailers.</p>
<p>An immediate relief measure would be to delink Australia’s natural gas market from global markets for a limited period. </p>
<p>The only sure way to do this is by implementing a domestic gas reservation policy, which entails reserving a portion of Australian gas for domestic use, rather than exporting it. This must be nationally coordinated, as we have a strongly interconnected <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/gas/gas-markets">national gas market</a>.</p>
<p>Western Australia uses its own isolated energy system and put a gas reservation <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/wa-domestic-gas-policy">policy in place</a> years ago, which seeks to make the equivalent of 15% of gas exports available for people in WA. This policy has helped <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gas-trigger-wont-be-enough-to-stop-our-energy-crisis-escalating-we-need-a-domestic-reservation-policy-188057">mitigate price shocks</a>.</p>
<p>Since winning the election, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/emboldened-andrews-promises-to-lead-with-pm-20221127-p5c1kl">continued to urge</a> the federal government to impose such a policy Australia wide. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should heed these calls. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It's time the grid returned to public hands</a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wind turbines in a field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497572/original/file-20221128-20-ee63oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Victoria has a 95% renewable electricity target by 2035.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Eckermann/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>Steps to reduce emissions</h2>
<p>Our energy futures are intrinsically intertwined with addressing climate change. </p>
<p>The world has only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report">eight years left</a> for global warming to be limited to 1.5°C. This means accelerating the switch to renewable energy without any further delays. </p>
<p>Our first step must be to make <em>all</em> electricity renewable by 2035 in Victoria (and, indeed, in the rest of Australia). </p>
<p>Second, we need a transition to electric vehicles across all transport systems as fast as possible and well before 2040. The Andrews government is investing $100 million to decarbonise the state’s road transport sector, but the transition won’t be complete <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/zero-emission-vehicles">until 2050</a>.</p>
<p>Third, hard-to-abate sectors – such as certain manufacturing operations, shipping and aviation – need ongoing technological development. </p>
<p>They require significant government support to progress clean fuels, likely based on the renewable <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-3-energy-storage-technologies-can-help-solve-the-challenge-of-moving-to-100-renewable-electricity-161564">hydrogen to ammonia</a> pathway. Victoria has a range of <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0021/513345/Victorian-Renewable-Hydrogen-Industry-Development-Plan.pdf">hydrogen</a> and ammonia related industry development policies that show the government recognises this sector’s importance.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the incoming Victorian government’s promises address the first issue well, while making some headway on the second and third. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Electric cars charging while parked" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497570/original/file-20221128-12-e7zvt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Andrews government aims to decarbonise road transport by 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Supplied by Lake Macquarie City Council</span></span>
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<h2>The Victorian government must be brave</h2>
<p>We can’t rely on the rest of the world for innovation. Governments in Australia must play a more prominent role in infrastructure investment, technology research and development, energy industry development and significant market reform. </p>
<p>Tackling all these challenges isn’t really a job for a single state, particularly given Australia has one major east coast <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-a-grid-anyway-making-sense-of-the-complex-beast-that-is-australias-electricity-network-185127">electricity grid</a> and one national energy framework.</p>
<p>The Victorian government cannot achieve any significant changes without working closely with other states and the federal government. In this, state governments must be brave and go against the past three decades of hands-off government approaches to essential energy infrastructure.</p>
<p>This isn’t a time for leaving things to the market to resolve. The Victorian government must take immediate and giant leaps to ensure a stable and climate-friendly energy sector.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-key-measures-in-the-suite-of-new-reforms-to-deal-with-australias-energy-crisis-184554">3 key measures in the suite of new reforms to deal with Australia's energy crisis</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ariel Liebman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, RACE for 2030 CRC, Engie, Data61/CSIRO. </span></em></p>The Andrews government has signalled a major shakeup of Victoria’s energy sector. But are they enough to bring the state’s energy prices down and reduce emissions?Ariel Liebman, Ariel Liebman Director, Monash Energy Institute and Professor of Sustainable Energy Systems, Faculty of Information Technology, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951082022-11-26T11:38:11Z2022-11-26T11:38:11ZLabor easily wins Victorian election; Greens on track to win four lower house seats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497424/original/file-20221126-17-4izzua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article has been updated.</em></p>
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<p>With 53% counted in the lower house for the Victorian election, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az">ABC is calling</a> 51 of the 88 seats for Labor, a clear majority. The Coalition has 23, the Greens five and nine seats remain in doubt.</p>
<p>Despite the easy seat win for Labor, their <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results/party-totals">statewide primary vote</a> is currently down 6.0% from the 2018 election to 36.9%, with the Coalition down 0.2% to 35.0%. The Greens up 1.0% to 11.6% and all Others up 5.2% to 16.5%.</p>
<p>The ABC’s estimate is that Labor is currently winning the statewide two party vote by 54.2-45.8 over the Coalition, a 3.4% swing to the Coalition. If this result holds, it would be in very good agreement with the final pre-election Newspoll that gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead.</p>
<p>Despite the overall swing to the Coalition, the ABC is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results?filter=changing&sort=az">currently showing Labor</a> gaining four seats from the Coalition (Bayswater, Glen Waverley, Hastings and Polwarth) against three losses to the Coalition (Morwell, Nepean and Pakenham). The Greens are gaining Richmond and Northcote from Labor, while the Coalition gains Mildura and Shepparton from independents.</p>
<p>The Greens gained the inner Melbourne seats of Richmond and Northcote from Labor, and have some chance of also winning Footscray, Pascoe Vale and Preston. However, although they currently lead the two candidate vote in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/albe">Albert Park</a>, they will finish third behind the Liberals, and Labor will easily retain that seat against the Liberals.</p>
<p>This was a dreadful performance by the Coalition against a Labor government that has been in power for eight years, especially given the federal change of government in May should have assisted the state Coalition.</p>
<p>The final Newspoll’s leaders’ ratings are telling. While Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’ net approval was down nine points to -2, he was still far more popular than Liberal leader Matthew Guy, whose net approval was also down five points to -25.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-victorian-newspoll-gives-labor-a-large-lead-195107">Final Victorian Newspoll gives Labor a large lead</a>
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<p>By campaigning so much on antipathy to Andrews, the Coalition damaged its own brand. I believe it would have been better for the Coalition to campaign more on issues that hurt incumbent governments, like cost of living and inflation. In a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorians-feel-the-pinch-as-data-shows-cost-of-living-most-important-election-issue-20221122-p5c070.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Age, 27% said cost of living was the most important issue, with health and the environment tied on 12%.</p>
<p>This article will be updated tomorrow morning with more results, including the upper house.</p>
<h2>Update Sunday morning: Likely no independents and at most five Greens</h2>
<p>Late Saturday, postal and early vote counting swung some seats where the Greens were leading in earlier counts back to Labor. Labor has held Footscray, and is likely to win Pascoe Vale and Preston. Labor now has a 51.2-48.8 lead over the Greens in Northcote. </p>
<p>The Greens may be able to chase this down on election day and early absent votes, which are votes cast outside a voter’s home electorate; these votes usually skew left. They will not be counted until posted back to their home electorates next week.</p>
<p>With 67% counted, the ABC is calling 49 of the 88 seats for Labor, 24 for the Coalition, four Greens and 11 undecided. Labor has gained Bayswater and Glen Waverley from the Coalition, but lost Nepean and Morwell to the Coalition. The Coalition gained Mildura and Shepparton from independents, with Labor losing Richmond to the Greens.</p>
<p>In the undecided seats, Labor will win Albert Park and is likely to win Melton, Pakenham, Bass, Preston and Hastings. Although Labor’s lead is currently tenuous in Bass and Hastings, these counts already include some postals which are Labor’s worst category of vote type. Labor should do well on absent votes.</p>
<p>Independents struggle on out of electorate votes, and with the Liberals already ahead in Hawthorn and Mornington, those seats are likely to be won by the Liberals. The Liberals should win Croydon, leaving Northcote, where the Greens need to chase down a Labor lead on absents, as the only genuinely undecided seat.</p>
<p>If these likely outcomes hold, Labor would win 55 of the 88 seats, the Coalition 27, the Greens four, with one undecided (Northcote) and one postponed (Narracan, due to a candidate’s death). The Coalition should retain Narracan when the supplementary election is held.</p>
<p>After much hype about teal and other independents, such an outcome would mean zero lower house seats for independents.</p>
<p>If Labor wins 55 seats, it would be the same number they won at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Victorian_state_election">2018 election</a> despite a 3.3% statewide two party swing to the Coalition. Many large swings to the Coalition were wasted on safe Labor seats, while some swings the other way overturned slim Coalition margins.</p>
<h2>Upper house looks good for the left, but there’s a long way to go</h2>
<p>While the lower house is at 67% counted, counts in most of the eight upper house regions are still below 30%. Each region elects five members. Additional votes to be added like early and postal votes will usually assist the Coalition.</p>
<p>On current counting using the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/lc-results">ABC’s calculator</a> gives Labor 15 of the 40 upper house seats, the Coalition 14, the Greens four, Legalise Cannabis two, and one each for Fiona Patten, Animal Justice, Labour DLP, the Shooters and One Nation.</p>
<p>I am not confident these results will hold up given group voting tickets (GVT) and the large outstanding vote. But if they do hold, parties aligned with the left would win 23 of the 40 upper house seats, to 17 for right-wing parties.</p>
<p>At this election there was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/nine-days-from-victorian-election-a-new-poll-gives-labor-a-modest-lead-us-republicans-win-house-194514">greater ideological split</a> in GVTs, with the left-wing parties preferencing each other. As Labor easily won the election in the lower house, it’s reasonable to expect a left majority in the upper house.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite a swing away from Labor, the Andrews government has been returned comfortably for a third term.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951072022-11-25T20:41:50Z2022-11-25T20:41:50ZFinal Victorian Newspoll gives Labor a large lead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497420/original/file-20221125-7211-pdcgqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian state election is today. There are 88 single-member lower house seats with members elected by preferential voting, and 40 upper house seats in eight five-member electorates. The election in the lower house seat of Narracan has been postponed owing to a candidate’s death.</p>
<p>The final Victorian pre-election Newspoll, conducted November 21-24 from a sample of 1,226, gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the last Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 35% Coalition (down two), 12% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>48% were dissatisfied with Labor Premier Daniel Andrews (up four) and 46% were satisfied (down five), for a net approval of -2, down nine points. But Liberal leader Matthew Guy’s net approval was also down five points to -25. Andrews led as better premier by 51-35 (52-33 three weeks ago). Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/25/newspoll-54-5-45-5-to-labor-in-victoria/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://commercial.yougov.com/rs/464-VHH-988/images/yougov-au-221106-Public-Polling-Methodology-Statement-nov-22.pdf">two party estimate</a> in this Newspoll was calculated using respondent allocated preferences. The Others component of this poll likely contains many anti-Andrews voters, but Guy’s ratings are far worse.</p>
<p>A 54.5-45.5 two party split would give Labor a lower house majority in the Victorian parliament. But with their primary vote down 5% from the 2018 election, they would be likely to lose more upper house seats than if the upper house voting system had been reformed.</p>
<p>Redbridge below is predicting Labor will slide into minority government, but this is not based on recent polling. All polls conducted in the last ten days give Labor between 53% and 55% two party, enough for a clear lower house majority.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-labor-slumps-in-resolve-poll-but-still-in-winning-position-labor-failure-on-upper-house-reform-comes-back-to-bite-194923">Victorian Labor slumps in Resolve poll but still in winning position; Labor failure on upper house reform comes back to bite</a>
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<p>There is some evidence federal Labor’s honeymoon is waning. The latest federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-november-15-2022-victorian-election-mortgage-stress-trust-distrust">Morgan weekly poll</a>, from polling conducted November 14-20, had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5 for the third successive week, down from 55.5-44.5 previously. This makes it more likely the Victorian Coalition will do well at the state election.</p>
<h2>Redbridge pessimistic for Labor, Morgan optimistic</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/24/victorian-election-minus-two-days-2/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Thursday on an article in The Herald Sun, in which pollster Redbridge Group said they believe “Labor will be reduced to minority government with 43 seats out of 88”, although a best case scenario for Labor would give them 48 seats.</p>
<p>This opinion is not based on any recent fieldwork, but on “extensive polling and hundreds of focus groups in key seats across the state over the past two years”. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/nine-days-from-victorian-election-a-new-poll-gives-labor-a-modest-lead-us-republicans-win-house-194514">Redbridge Victorian state poll</a> was conducted in early November, and gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, enough for a clear win in the lower house.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-government-of-daniel-andrews-set-to-win-with-a-reduced-majority-as-support-for-l-np-grows-but-will-the-trend-continue">Victorian Morgan state</a> SMS poll, conducted November 22-23 from a sample of 1,195, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since a Morgan poll a <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-victorian-polls-have-large-labor-leads-12-days-before-election-us-democrats-hold-senate-at-midterms-194051">fortnight ago</a>. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down two), 32.5% Coalition (up 3.5), 12.5% Greens (up one), 4.5% teal independents (steady) and 12.5% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Andrews had a 57.5-42.5 approval rating (58.5-41.5 last fortnight). Andrews led Guy as better premier by 65-35 (65.5-34.5 last fortnight).</p>
<p>If Morgan is correct, the 55-45 Labor lead would give them a large lower house majority. But Morgan’s SMS polls have been unreliable, and this poll is skewing to Labor relative to other pollsters.</p>
<h2>Vote counting</h2>
<p>As at Friday, ABC election <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/tracking-the-early-vote-for-the-2022-victorian-election/">analyst Antony Green</a> said 43.4% of all Victorian enrolled voters had voted early in-person, and a further 13.3% had applied for a postal vote. With a likely final turnout of around 90%, that means over 63% have already voted. Early voting has increased since 2018.</p>
<p>The early voting will slow election night counts as early vote centres will likely take until late at night to report their counts. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/25/victorian-election-minus-one-day/">Poll Bludger</a> said Friday that some postal votes will also be counted on election night. Counting could also be slow owing to the large numbers of candidates.</p>
<p>In the upper house, with eight five-member electorates, a quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. It’s probably not safe to call for anyone not elected on quota on election night as small changes in vote share can give a different result under group voting tickets (GVT).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<p>The ABC will have projections of upper house results <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/calculator-upper">using its calculator</a>. But this calculator assumes that all votes are above the line ticket votes. If a party that needs help from other parties’ GVTs is beating a bigger party by a narrow margin, that lead would likely disappear once below the line votes are factored in.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian EMRS poll: Liberals well ahead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-November-2022.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 8-15 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 42% of the vote (up one since August), Labor 29% (down two), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 16% (up one), with independents making up 15% of the Others’ 16%. Liberal incumbent Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 46-34 (47-35 in August).</p>
<p>In other Tasmanian news, the <a href="https://tasmps.greens.org.au/media-release/greens-celebrate-house-assembly">lower house</a> of the Tasmanian parliament will be increased from 25 to 35 members at the next election, in five seven-member electorates, from the current five five-member electorates. The lower house had been reduced from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_House_of_Assembly">35 to 25 seats</a> in 1998 in an effort to stop the Greens winning seats.</p>
<p>Under the current five-member electorates, the quota for election is one-sixth of the vote or 16.7%. With seven-member electorates, the quota will drop to one-eighth or 12.5%.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As election day arrives in Victoria, two late polls predict a return of the Andrews Labor government.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949232022-11-22T01:09:45Z2022-11-22T01:09:45ZVictorian Labor slumps in Resolve poll but still in winning position; Labor failure on upper house reform comes back to bite<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496629/original/file-20221122-26-84db2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian state election is on Saturday with polls closing at 6pm AEDT. There are 88 single-member lower house seats with members elected by preferential voting, and 40 upper house seats in eight five-member electorates.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-coalition-neck-and-neck-as-gap-narrows-between-andrews-and-guy-20221121-p5bzxv.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted November 16-20 from a sample of about 1,000, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a six-point gain for the Coalition since late October. Primary votes were 36% Labor (down two), 36% Coalition (up five), 10% Greens (down two), 6% independents (down six) and 12% others (up six).</p>
<p>I believe Resolve is now using actual ballot papers in all lower house seats (as this poll was conducted after nominations closed on November 11). As prominent independents are not running in every seat, the independent vote crashed while the “others” vote surged. The Greens may be losing votes to Animal Justice.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-victorian-polls-have-large-labor-leads-12-days-before-election-us-democrats-hold-senate-at-midterms-194051">Two Victorian polls have large Labor leads 12 days before election; US Democrats hold Senate at midterms</a>
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<p>Labor Premier Daniel Andrews continued to lead the Liberals’ Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 48-34 (49-29 in October), but this was Guy’s highest rating in Resolve polls.</p>
<p>A 53-47 statewide two party win for Labor would still be a clear victory for them in the lower house, but there are two worries for Labor: the prospect of further narrowing in the final week, and the preferences of the 12% others. It’s plausible most of the others dislike Andrews.</p>
<h2>Labor’s failure to reform upper house allows ‘preference whisperer’ to flourish</h2>
<p>There has been recent media attention on the anti-democratic group voting ticket (GVT) system used to elect Victoria’s upper house after the leaking of the video below in which preference whisperer Glenn Druery brags about his influence.</p>
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<p>As I have said before, Victorian Labor has been in government for eight years, but made absolutely no attempt to reform the upper house system by axing GVT. Druery would have no influence if above the line voters were able to direct their own preferences.</p>
<p>After reforms made in the last seven years in other jurisdictions, Victoria is now the only Australian jurisdiction that still uses GVT for above the line votes. At the May federal election, Victorian votes for the Senate were allocated according to voter-directed above the line and below the line preferences.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<p>At this election, the only way for voters to direct their own preferences is to number at least five boxes below the line. Numbering can continue beyond five, but five preferences are required for a formal vote.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/10/victorian-party-policies-on-fixing.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said the Victorian Liberals have not pushed for the axing of GVT during the previous term, and so some blame for the current situation should go to them.</p>
<p>But even if the Liberals had firmly advocated scrapping GVT, Labor is the government and has a big majority in the lower house of the Victorian parliament. </p>
<h2>Liberals change preference policy to ‘put Labor last’</h2>
<p>Before the November 2010 Victorian state election, federal and state Liberal how to vote (HTV) cards recommended preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor. Since that election, the HTV cards have put Labor ahead of the Greens. But at this election, the Liberals will put Labor last in all seats.</p>
<p>ABC <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-the-impact-of-the-liberal-partys-change-of-preference-recommendation/">election analyst Antony Green</a> said that in inner Melbourne federal Labor vs Greens contests, the Greens received an average of 82% of Liberal preferences before the November 2010 election, but Labor has since received an average 66% of Liberal preferences.</p>
<p>This change in Liberal HTV cards will assist the Greens in inner Melbourne seats at this state election. Green said they would likely win Northcote on favourable Liberal flows after losing it narrowly in 2018.</p>
<h2>Guy says controversial Liberal won’t be in party room, but she’ll win a seat</h2>
<p>Candidate nominations for the state election closed on November 11, and it is now too late to replace candidates on the ballot paper. Renee Heath is the lead Coalition candidate for the Eastern Victoria upper house region, and is a senior member of the conservative <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-19/victorian-liberal-party-candidate-distance-matthew-guy/101674308">City Builders Church</a>. </p>
<p>On Saturday, Guy said that Heath would not sit in the Liberal party room if elected. She will still almost certainly win, as this is a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/evic">conservative-leaning region</a> that gave the Coalition two seats, Labor two and the Shooters one at the 2018 election.</p>
<p>The only way to vote Coalition in Eastern Victoria without voting for Heath is to vote below the line for all Liberal and National candidates other than Heath.</p>
<h2>Election in Narracan postponed after candidate’s death</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/about-us/media/state-election-media-releases/failed-election-in-narracan-district">electoral commission</a> announced on Monday that the election in the lower house seat of Narracan will be postponed after the death of Nationals’ candidate Shaun Gilchrist. </p>
<p>This means Saturday’s election will only be for 87 of the 88 lower house seats, with a supplementary election to be held later in Narracan. However, voters in Narracan will still be required to vote for the upper house. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/narr">Liberals won Narracan</a> by 60.0-40.0 against Labor at the 2018 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the Victorian state election just days away, a new poll shows the gap between the two major parties to be tightening.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937242022-11-20T19:05:33Z2022-11-20T19:05:33ZAs Victorians head to the polls, will voters punish the major parties?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496041/original/file-20221118-23017-zqvnpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are now just five days until the last day of voting in the Victorian state election.</p>
<p>Much of the focus of the campaign so far has been on the Legislative Assembly, or lower house. To win government, a party or coalition of parties must win a majority of seats in this chamber.</p>
<p>At the last state election in 2018, Labor won 55 of the 88 seats, while the Liberal and National coalition won just 27 seats.</p>
<p>Like other jurisdictions, COVID-19 had a major impact on Victoria. In responding to the pandemic, the Andrews government introduced a range of policy measures that sought to limit the transmission of the virus in the community. <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/extended-melbourne-lockdown-keep-victorians-safe-0">These included</a> lengthy lockdowns, curfews, and limits on how far people could travel from their homes.</p>
<p>While the Victorian political debate appeared to <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-political-force-of-nature-despite-scandals-and-a-polarising-style-can-dan-do-it-again-in-victoria-187344">become more polarised</a> during this time, opinion polls have continually favoured a third consecutive win for the Dan Andrews-led Labor Party.</p>
<p>In contrast, the Coalition has seemingly struggled to generate support, despite being out of government for eight years. The decision to bring back Matthew Guy as Liberal Party leader last year sought to build the opposition’s momentum ahead of the election. Based on <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-victorian-polls-have-large-labor-leads-12-days-before-election-us-democrats-hold-senate-at-midterms-194051">recent polls</a>, Guy appears to have stopped voters leaving the Coalition, but the opposition still trails Labor on the all-important two-party-preferred measure.</p>
<h2>Minor parties and new challengers</h2>
<p>While the major parties continue to be central to the campaign coverage, minor parties are also working to increase their representation in the lower house.</p>
<p>The Greens currently hold three inner-metropolitan seats: Melbourne, Prahran and Brunswick. Two of these seats are on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/VIC2022-Pendulum.pdf">very fine margins</a>. Melbourne is held by just 1.6%, while the Brunswick margin is 2%.</p>
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<span class="caption">The Greens, led by Samantha Ratnam (centre), will be hoping to pick up seats such as Richmond at the Victorian election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In addition to defending these seats, the Greens are hoping to win Richmond, another inner-metropolitan electorate held by Labor by 5.8%. The seat is currently held by Labor minister Richard Wynne, who will be retiring after 23 years. This opens an opportunity for the Greens to make further inroads in the Victorian parliament.</p>
<p>There is also a lot of interest in how the “teal” independents will perform. At the federal poll in May, teal candidates won Kooyong and Goldstein from the Liberal Party. There is an <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/swings-and-roundabouts-the-key-seats-that-could-change-hands-at-the-state-election-20221109-p5bwuo.html">expectation</a> they may win eastern metropolitan seats including Kew, Hawthorn and Caulfield, which had once been safe electorates for the Liberal Party.</p>
<p>This election will provide the teals with an opportunity to consolidate themselves in Australian politics if they are able also to win state representation.</p>
<h2>The upper house</h2>
<p>The state’s upper house is made up of 40 parliamentarians, with five MPs elected from each of the eight <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/electoral-boundaries/state-regions">Legislative Council regions</a>. At the last election, Labor won 18 seats, while the Coalition won 11.</p>
<p>The proportional voting system used to elect candidates is similar to that used in the Senate prior to 2016. To win, a candidate must win 16.7% of the vote across the region in which they are standing. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the controversial Group Voting Ticket (GVT) system is used to elect candidates. This means voters can simply indicate their most preferred party above the line on the ballot paper. Their preferences will then be distributed according to the preference flows designed by the party.</p>
<p>While this makes voting straightforward, the GVT <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/the-victorian-legislative-councils-rotten-electoral-system-part-1/">system has been criticised</a> for giving too much power to parties to determine where votes end up through preference deals. </p>
<p>Of course, voters can also choose to vote below the line by numbering <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/2022-state-election/how-to-fill-out-a-ballot-paper">at least five boxes</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<p>At the last election, the Greens won just one seat thanks to poor preference flows. In contrast, parties with beneficial preference deals were able to win representation in the state’s upper house. These included the Liberal Democrats, Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, the Reason Party, and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.</p>
<p>The use of the GVT system has also come under scrutiny after so-called “preference whisperer” Glenn Druery, who has regularly designed beneficial preference deals for parties, was shown <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-refer-labor-to-ibac-over-preference-whisperer-video-20221117-p5byzg.html">on video talking about</a> these deals.</p>
<p>Irrespective of the debates about the GVT, it remains a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/how-victoria-s-wild-upper-house-election-could-shape-the-next-term-of-government-20221110-p5bx81.html">feature of the Victorian system</a> and could be used in future state elections unless changes are made to the electoral system following this election.</p>
<p>As such, the final outcome of the upper house election may replicate the existing result, which would mean neither major party controls the chamber and must work with cross-bench MPs to form a majority.</p>
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<h2>The final countdown</h2>
<p>Opinion polls have been consistently pointing to a Labor win in Victoria. If successful, Andrews may become the longest-serving premier of the state since John Cain junior, another Labor leader, held the post from 1982 to 1990. </p>
<p>A third straight loss for the Liberals in Victoria will presumably lead to further introspection and analysis within the party about its policy agenda and leadership.</p>
<p>With many Victorians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/14/early-voting-begins-for-the-victorian-election-as-poll-suggests-a-tightening-race">have already voted early</a>, the future of the state’s government and party system will be revealed when counting starts on Saturday night.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Much attention will be on whether voters turn away from Labor and the Coalition, and what that means for minor parties such as the Greens, and the ‘teal’ independents.Zareh Ghazarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948112022-11-17T04:31:33Z2022-11-17T04:31:33ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Tim Colebatch, Kos Samaras and Sumeyya Ilanbey on the Victorian Election<p>Victorians go to the polls on November 26, with the Andrews government seeking a third term. </p>
<p>Labor is the clear favourite, but it is under pressure in a number of seats. </p>
<p>The premier is a polarising figure, especially (although not only) as a result of the trials Melburnians endured with the prolonged harsh lockdowns during COVID. </p>
<p>Victoria will be a fresh test of what we saw in the federal poll – the disillusionment of many voters with the major parties. </p>
<p>There are only several “teal” candidates but their fate will be watched carefully as a measure of whether the movement continues to have momentum. </p>
<p>Main issues in the election include the cost of living, health, and integrity.</p>
<p>In this podcast, we talk with Tim Colebatch, former economics editor of The Age and a keen election watcher, Kos Samaras, a director of the Redbridge Group and former deputy campaign director for Vic Labor, and Sumeyya Ilanbey, state political reporter for The Age and author of Daniel Andrews: The Revealing Biography of Australia’s Most Powerful Premier. </p>
<p>While Colebatch believes this election will be closer than 2018, he can’t see Labor losing its majority. “Labor will govern as an absolute majority unless they lose 12 seats and it’s very hard to see them losing 12 seats.” </p>
<p>He does however, think that the minor parties and the Greens will have a very good night. “Voting for Greens, minor parties and independents has jumped from 22% to 34% and all the evidence suggests it’ll be something like that this time as well.”</p>
<p>Colebatch is scathing of Daniel Andrews’ suburban rail loop project. “It’s a 26 kilometre tunnel in an arc well out of the way from Melbourne. Something like 20, 25 kilometres out of town and it basically links up a number of marginal Labor seats”.</p>
<p>Samaras says “there’s this sizeable portion of the voters out there who have an issue with the premier as an individual, but equally have the same issue with the opposition leader [Matthew Guy]. So I think it’s going to be a contest of who do they hate the most. And that will then obviously influence their vote […] You’ve got an electorate that is extremely fatigued, suffering what I would define as a form of PTSD that is going to have an impact on the election.”</p>
<p>RedBridge polling suggests cost of living is the major issue, he says. “[In] a recent poll that we just did, for example, we asked people who are experiencing mortgage stress how many more interest rate rises can they cope with before they have to sell their home. 35% of those who are experiencing mortgage stress said ‘one more’ […] We expect the major party vote come Saturday week to be the lowest it has been in Victorian history”.</p>
<p>Ilanbey says the campaign has been “very stage managed and very lacklustre”. She believes “people have got a better insight into Daniel Andrews [compared to 2018], particularly because of those pandemic press conferences. You know, his ruthlessness, his work ethic, his drive, his relentlessness.”</p>
<p>But she doesn’t think the Murdoch media’s attacks have had an effect on him, citing the negative coverage of the government in 2018. “And we saw Labor not only get re-elected but win in a landslide.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Andrews is seeking a third term. However many voters are disillusioned with the major parties and the election will be a test for a clutch of teal and other independentsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940232022-11-06T07:31:55Z2022-11-06T07:31:55ZAttacks on Dan Andrews are part of News Corporation’s long abuse of power<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493667/original/file-20221106-11-ie9e1r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sane people trying to fathom the Herald Sun’s bizarre coverage of Victorian Premier Dan Andrews over the past few days might be helped by some insights from the founding of News Limited, the company on which Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation empire has been built and of which the Herald Sun is part.</p>
<p>The main insight is that journalism is not, and never has been, the purpose of News Corporation. Its purpose, its reason for existence, is to provide the means by which three generations of the Murdoch family accumulate wealth and exert power.</p>
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<p>In her magisterial history of Australian newspaper empires, Paper Emperors, Sally Young tells what she calls the <a href="https://stella.org.au/prize/2020-prize/paper-emperors/">real story</a> of the birth of News Limited. </p>
<p>The company’s own creation myth is that its first newspaper, the Adelaide News, was the work of a couple of rugged individuals, a “miner” called Gerald Mussen, who was in fact an industrial consultant to Broken Hill Associated Smelters, and a former editor of the Melbourne Herald, J. E. Davidson.</p>
<p>As Young makes clear, these two had long worked as collaborating propagandists for the Herald and Weekly Times, of which Keith Murdoch was managing director, and its associated mining interests in Broken Hill and Port Pirie. The evidence indicates that Mussen and Davidson were financed into the newspaper start-up by these interests for the purpose of continuing the propagandising.</p>
<p>Keith Murdoch later acquired the paper in his own right and bequeathed it to Rupert.</p>
<p>Propagandising was News’s original sin, and it has never been redeemed. Instead it has broadened out to beat-ups, misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy theories.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-news-corp-goes-rogue-on-election-coverage-what-price-will-australian-democracy-pay-181599">As News Corp goes 'rogue' on election coverage, what price will Australian democracy pay?</a>
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<p>Of course, along the way it has done plenty of journalism, some of it very high quality. In 1959, the Adelaide News, under the editorship of Rohan Rivett, played a <a href="https://aso.gov.au/titles/features/black-and-white/notes/">large role</a> in securing a judicial review of the Rupert Max Stuart case. Stuart had been sentenced to hang for the rape and murder of a nine-year-old girl, after a trial that caused much public disquiet. His conviction was never conclusively overturned but he was released after 14 years in prison. </p>
<p>More recently, Hedley Thomas’s exposés of <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/gsbpapers/34/">the wrong done</a> to Dr Mohamed Haneef and the inadequacies of the police investigation into the murder of Lynette Dawson, for which her husband Chris was recently convicted, have been instances of public-interest journalism at its best.</p>
<p>However, this function of doing journalism – the “what” – is to be distinguished from the “why”. The journalism is done in pursuit of the organisation’s primary purpose, the empowerment and enrichment of the Murdochs, while every now and again also serving the public interest.</p>
<p>The coverage of Daniel Andrews needs to be seen in this light.</p>
<p>The starting point is that the Murdochs – Lachlan or Rupert or both – clearly prefer a non-Labor government, and the continuance in office of a Labor administration in Victoria is an offence against their wishes.</p>
<p>So we saw in the 2018 election campaign a racist scare campaign against so-called <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/gang-violence-in-melbourne-new-intel-on-core-apex-members/news-story/9873f9e18ac0a9c611601885b453e69d">African gangs</a>, pushed along by Peter Dutton, now leader of the Liberal-National opposition in federal parliament, and turbo-charged by the Herald Sun.</p>
<p>It backfired spectacularly, and Andrews won in a landslide. That simply aggravated the offence.</p>
<p>Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the Herald Sun promoted increasingly shrill criticisms of the Andrews lockdowns, particularly by the former Liberal federal treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, who subsequently lost his Melbourne seat of Kooyong in the May federal election. More aggravation.</p>
<p>Most recently, on November 4, 22 days before the 2022 Victorian state election, there was yet further offence. Newspoll showed the Liberal Party trailing Labor 46-54% in two-party-preferred terms. Landslide territory again. </p>
<p>This succession of rebuffs shows that the capacity of the Murdoch media to influence electoral outcomes is weaker than it once was, adding insult to injury.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-has-labors-lead-down-but-would-still-win-with-three-weeks-until-election-193825">Victorian Newspoll has Labor's lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election</a>
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<p>Time for some mud-chucking in the hope that enough will stick.</p>
<p>First, the Herald Sun resurrects a nine-year-old motor accident involving not Andrews himself but his wife. It <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/cyclist-hit-by-daniel-andrews-car-demands-justice/news-story/e3c34431cc48668fd2d228b01b22b39a">publishes online</a> a video-taped interview with the cyclist involved in the collision, and his father.</p>
<p>The interview is long on innuendo and short on facts. It is insinuated that in some undefined way, Andrews improperly used his power to deny the young man justice and that the legal system let him down.</p>
<p>Time, too, to resurrect a conspiracy theory.</p>
<p>On March 9 2021, Andrews slipped on some outside stairs at a holiday house he and his family had rented on the Mornington Peninsula, injuring his back and ribs.</p>
<p>As The Guardian <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/11/daniel-andrews-injury-inside-the-conspiracy-theory-around-the-premiers-fall">has reported</a>, an anonymous post about what had allegedly “really” happened appeared first on an encrypted messaging app favoured by far-right activists and conspiracy theorists, then moved to a fringe website promoting QAnon and Port Arthur massacre misinformation.</p>
<p>The conspiracy theory asserted that Andrews’ injuries had been sustained in dark circumstances.</p>
<p>For reasons best known to herself, the Liberals’ then Shadow Treasurer Louise Staley, decided this was a fire worth throwing fuel on, so she published a list of 12 questions she said Andrews needed to answer about the incident.</p>
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<p>The list was predicated on so much misinformation and disinformation that <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/ambulance-victoria-issues-statement-on-premier-s-fall-20210608-p57z2l.html">Ambulance Victoria</a>, whose crew had taken Andrews to hospital, and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/police-did-not-attend-after-andrews-fall-says-chief-commissioner-20210610-p57zuo.html">chief commissioner of police</a> both felt it necessary to issue statements setting out the facts.</p>
<p>This had the effect of killing off the conspiracy theory, and when Matthew Guy took over as leader of the Liberal Party a few months later, he demoted Staley to shadow minister for scrutiny of government.</p>
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<span class="caption">Herald Sun front page, November 6 2022.</span>
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<p>Yet on November 6, the Sunday Herald Sun devoted many hundreds of words to a rehash of the conspiracy theory. This time it included a photograph of the steps, noting that the house had been repainted since the incident. What might have been covered up by a fresh coat of paint, the reader is implicitly invited to ask.</p>
<p>News Corporation is cradled in conflict of interest, overt and covert influence-peddling and propaganda, all for the purpose of advancing the Murdoch family’s interests. Abuse of media power is baked into its culture.</p>
<p>This does not excuse what the Herald Sun is doing, but helps explain it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194023/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>News Corporation’s media outlets have always been about gathering and exercising power. The Victorian premier’s ability to survive News Corp’s hostile coverage shows its power could be waning.Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938252022-11-05T01:51:54Z2022-11-05T01:51:54ZVictorian Newspoll has Labor’s lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493614/original/file-20221105-23-bcmxjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diego Fidele/Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian election will be held in three weeks, on November 26. A Newspoll, conducted October 31 to November 3 from a sample of 1,007, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian Newspoll in late August. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 37% Labor (down four), 37% Coalition (up one), 13% Greens (steady) and 13% for all Others (up three). Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/04/victorian-election-minus-22-days/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>51% were satisfied with Labor Premier Daniel Andrews (down three) and 44% were dissatisfied (up three), for a net approval of +7, down six points. Liberal leader Matthew Guy had a net approval of -20, down three points. Andrews led Guy as better premier by 52-33 (51-34 in August).</p>
<p>A question on whether Labor deserved to be re-elected, or it was time to give someone else a go had the latter leading by 47-45, a reversal of a 47-46 lead for deserved to be re-elected in November 2021.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1588496570198020098">Kevin Bonham</a> said this is the first public Victorian poll from any pollster since June 2021 that has had Labor’s lead inside 55-45, and that has not had Labor ahead on primary votes.</p>
<p>If this poll result were replicated on Election Day in three weeks, Labor would still win easily. But they will be worried that the polls continue to narrow in the final three weeks. A Resolve poll conducted about two weeks ago had given Labor a 59-41 lead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-retains-large-lead-in-victorian-resolve-poll-four-weeks-from-election-also-leads-in-nsw-192333">Labor retains large lead in Victorian Resolve poll four weeks from election; also leads in NSW</a>
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<p>A federal Labor government would be expected to assist state Coalition parties. While federal Labor had been in honeymoon poll territory, the last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-lead-slides-in-newspoll-but-honeymoon-continues-in-resolve-poll-after-budget-193441">federal Newspoll</a> had their lead sliding to 55-45. I believe inflation and cost of living issues will negatively impact governments at all levels.</p>
<p>This poll had Labor’s primary vote down 6% in the lower house from the 2018 election. If Labor suffered a similar swing against it in the upper house, they would be likely to lose more seats than they would had the upper house electoral system been reformed from the current group voting ticket system.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<h2>NSW Resolve poll: Labor’s lead falls, but would still win election</h2>
<p>The New South Wales state election will be held in March 2023. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-coalition-claws-back-lost-ground-after-pollution-of-federal-election-20221103-p5bvgp.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald gave Labor 38% of the primary vote (down five since September), the Coalition 35% (up five), the Greens 11% (up one), the Shooters 1% (down one), independents 10% (steady) and others 5% (steady).</p>
<p>Two-party estimates are not provided by Resolve until close to elections, but <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1588359386551885826">Bonham</a> estimated this poll would be 54.5-45.5 to Labor, a 5.5-point gain for the Coalition since September.</p>
<p>Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet led Labor’s Chris Minns by 30-29 as preferred premier (a 28-28 tie in September). This poll was presumably conducted with the federal Resolve polls in early and late October from a sample of 1,150.</p>
<p>It is likely the last NSW Resolve poll was a massive Labor-favouring outlier, and hence the big swing back to the Coalition in this poll. Nevertheless, Labor retains a solid lead, and is the favourite to win the election next March. Other <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-retains-large-lead-in-victorian-resolve-poll-four-weeks-from-election-also-leads-in-nsw-192333">recent NSW polls</a> have also had Labor ahead.</p>
<h2>WA poll: Mark McGowan remains very popular</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/04/polls-federal-and-wa-leaders-budget-response-foreign-policy-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Friday that a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian, conducted October 19-21 from a sample of 637, gave WA Labor Premier Mark McGowan a 70% approval rating (up two since March) and an 18% disapproval (down seven). Liberal leader David Honey was at 31% disapproval, 9% approval.</p>
<h2>Federal Morgan poll: 55.5-44.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s federal Morgan poll gave Labor a 55.5-44.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week. The Morgan <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-november-2-2022-interest-rates-up-0-25-consumer-confidence-inflation-expectations">weekly video update</a> included primary votes, with Labor on 38% (up 1.5), the Coalition 37% (down 0.5), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 3% (down 1.5), independents 6% (down two) and others 4% (up 1.5).</p>
<p>This is Labor’s highest lead in a Morgan poll so far this term. Polling was conducted October 24-30, so the first two days were before the October 25 budget was delivered.</p>
<h2>Federal Resolve poll on sport sponsorship</h2>
<p>I covered the previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-lead-slides-in-newspoll-but-honeymoon-continues-in-resolve-poll-after-budget-193441">federal Resolve poll</a> after the budget that gave Labor about a 58.5-41.5 lead. There were additional questions on which companies should be allowed to sponsor sports teams. By 62-25, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/crowe-sports-sponsorship-20221102-p5bv0n.html">voters would support</a> a ban on gambling and betting companies.</p>
<p>However, bans were not supported for any other companies. By 45-38, voters would allow beer and spirit companies to sponsor. Voters supported allowing coal, oil and gas companies by 51-27 and fast food chains by 60-24.</p>
<p>By 43-38, voters agreed that sport players should have the right to tell their team or league to ban certain companies from sponsoring them.</p>
<h2>Netanyahu’s bloc wins outright majority in Israeli election</h2>
<p>At Tuesday’s Israeli election, former PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of four right-wing and religious parties – his own Likud, the Religious Zionists, Shas and UTJ – won a combined 64 of the 120 Knesset seats, exceeding the 61 needed for a majority. I covered this for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/01/israeli-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193825/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor government’s lead is closing in the polls, but it still looks set to be returned on November 26.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930912022-10-24T05:32:13Z2022-10-24T05:32:13ZLabor’s love lost: the tide is turning on private ownership of electricity grids<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491249/original/file-20221024-13-pzklh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C214%2C5742%2C3077&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The promise by the Andrews government to reintroduce public enterprise to Victoria’s electricity industry, through a revived State Electricity Commission, is something of a shock. </p>
<p>The process of electricity privatisation in Australia began with Labor in Victoria, when the government of Joan Kirner sold <a href="https://researchdata.edu.au/loy-yang-b-known-lybco/491512">51% of the Loy Yang B power station</a> in 1992. Her Liberal successor, Jeff Kennett, then sold the remainder of Loy Lang B, as well as the rest of the state’s publicly owned generation, transmission and distribution assets.</p>
<p>Labor has been office for all but four years since Kennett’s defeat in 1999. Until now it has made no attempt to reverse his policies. Rather, it has undertaken some rather dubious privatisations of its own, notably the Andrews government’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-27/victoria-privatises-its-land-titles-and-registry-office/10169056">2018 sale</a> of the Land Titles and Registry office. </p>
<p>Premier Daniel Andrews’ statement that “it was wrong, it was a mistake, to sell our energy companies” therefore marks a clear shift.</p>
<h2>Labor leaders change tack</h2>
<p>The change is part of a broader shift in Labor’s position throughout Australia. </p>
<p>Arguably this shift began in Queensland after the trouncing of Anna Bligh’s Labor government in 2012, winning just seven of 89 seats. The Bligh government had sold a range of public assets (though retaining distribution and transmission networks, and coal-fired power generators). The remnants of the Labor party concluded privatisation was electoral and economic poison. </p>
<p>Labor was returned to power in 2015 after the LNP government of Campbell Newman, having sought to push privatisation further, was ousted after one term. Under Annastacia Palaszczuk the Queensland government is now investing in new renewable generation through the publicly owned CleanCo – including <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/acciona-to-build-huge-1gw-wind-farm-in-queensland-after-landing-cleanco-deal-15236/">18 wind turbines</a> as part of the MacIntyre Wind Precinct, the <a href="https://cleancoqueensland.com.au/first-foundation-poured-at-the-macintyre-wind-precinct/">largest wind farm project</a> in the southern hemisphere. </p>
<p>NSW Labor went through similar contortions over privatisation, with a series of premiers and treasurers trying and failing to find a way of selling the electricity industry. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="alt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">caption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The disastrous defeat of the Keneally Labor government in 2011 was driven by this failure, along with the string of scandals that seem to be the rule rather than the exception in NSW politics. </p>
<p>Now, with the prospect of Labor returning to power next March, Opposition leader Chris Minns has <a href="https://www.chrisminns.com.au/nsw_labor_to_protect_state_assets">given a guarantee</a> there will be no more privatisations.</p>
<p>At the national level, the biggest single commitment of the Albanese government is the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation initiative, to build the transmission network needed for clean energy. The first two projects to be financed – the Marinus Link between Tasmania and Victoria, and the Kerang link, between Victoria and NSW – are <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/rewiring-nation-supports-its-first-two-transmission-projects">publicly owned</a>.</p>
<h2>Taxpayers worse off</h2>
<p>What explains this shift? </p>
<p>First, public opinion is now <a href="https://theconversation.com/publics-view-of-the-politics-of-privatisation-comes-full-circle-22073">opposed to privatisation</a>.</p>
<p>There was significant public support for privatisation in the 1980s, but this went into decline after major privatisations began in the early 1990s. Contrary to the hopes of supporters, experience with privatisation only made voters more hostile. This has finally permeated through to political commentary. The failings of formerly public enterprises like Qantas are now <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/06/23/qantas-alan-joyce-another-failure-privatisation/">regularly traced back</a> to the process of privatisation.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/publics-view-of-the-politics-of-privatisation-comes-full-circle-22073">Public's view of the politics of privatisation comes full circle</a>
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<p>More importantly, politicians now understand that the economics of selling income-generating assets don’t stack up.</p>
<p>The premise for privatisation was that it was better for taxpayers to sell state-owned assets and reduce public debt.</p>
<p>But, particularly when interest rates on public debt are below the rate of inflation, government-owned enterprises generate returns well above the cost of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00886.x">the capital invested</a> in them.</p>
<p>Those states that kept ownership of their electricity networks, such as Queensland and Tasmania, have received a steady flow of dividends, and the value of their assets have appreciated. The proceeds of privatisation in other states have long dissipated.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">The end of coal-fired power is in sight, even with private interests holding out</a>
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<p>According to the ideology of privatisation, the low cost of borrowing for public enterprises is an illusion, because the public is on the hook for the cost of a bailout in the event of any business failure. But such bailouts have been very rare in Australia, and taking their costs into account does not change the calculation significantly.</p>
<p>The risk premium demanded by investors in private equity has always been large, and is now growing, making the gap between the private and public cost of capital even larger. There has been a corresponding drop in private investment globally, and (outside mining) in Australia. The case for public investment has never been stronger. Labor politicians seem finally to have realised this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a long-standing critic of privatisation in the electricity sector since the 1990s. He has made numerous submissions to public inquiries, and has undertaken research for the Electrical Trades Union. </span></em></p>Victorian Labor started the process of privatising electricity assets. Now Premier Daniel Andrews says it was a mistake.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1929412022-10-20T04:33:03Z2022-10-20T04:33:03ZVictoria signals end of coal by announcing a new 95% renewable target. It’s a risky but vital move<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490784/original/file-20221020-20-3hzq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C4188%2C2752&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s the end of the line for coal in Victoria, after Victorian Premier Dan Andrews today announced plans for 95% renewables within 13 years. Until now, the industrialised state has been aiming for 50% by 2030. </p>
<p>But it’s also the end of the line for our <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">ailing</a>, mostly privatised, energy market. Public ownership is back in vogue – in a recognition the energy market cannot deliver the transformation required. The Andrews Labor government would bring back the State Electricity Commission (SEC) if re-elected next month and use this to build new renewable energy projects. </p>
<p>At a national level, Labor is aiming for 82% renewables by 2030. So is Victoria’s target even possible? Yes – if the state government can overcome the major stumbling block of transmission. Building solar and wind isn’t the bottleneck – it’s the grid that isn’t fit for purpose. </p>
<p>Still, it’s an encouraging sign that the clean energy floodgates are opening in our eastern coal states. Queensland is <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/about/newsroom/queensland-energy-and-jobs-plan">now aiming</a> for 70% renewables in a decade. New South Wales is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-to-make-single-biggest-investment-in-renewable-energy-20220609-p5asmc.html">forging ahead</a> with renewable energy zones. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1582880990737092608"}"></div></p>
<h2>Dizzying pace of change</h2>
<p>Why are governments boosting renewable ambitions so dramatically? Several reasons. In Victoria, there’s an election campaign under way. Labor is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/11/guardian-essential-poll-daniel-andrews-in-strong-position-for-labor-victory-in-victorian-election">widely expected</a> to win a fourth term – and infrastructure is one of its strengths. This offers an exciting vision of the future – and any political blowback from cost overruns will come later on. </p>
<p>But other changes are afoot. Operators of ailing and ageing coal plants are looking for the exit. The huge Loy Yang A power plant – responsible for 13% of the state’s emissions – <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">will close in 2035</a>, a decade ahead of schedule. </p>
<p>Climate change is intensifying, with unprecedented floods in Australia and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-climate-scientist-on-the-planets-simultaneous-disasters-from-pakistans-horror-floods-to-europes-record-drought-189626">Pakistan</a>, unprecedented droughts in America’s west and China, and marine heatwaves <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-10-key-culprit-alaska-crab-mass.html">devastating fisheries</a>. Solar is now the cheapest form of newly built power. </p>
<p>Elsewhere around the world, offshore wind turbine technology has matured into 16 megawatt <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/business/GE-wind-turbine.html">giant turbines</a>, stretching hundreds of metres into the sky. And the Russian war on Ukraine has driven fossil fuel prices skyward, causing hip pocket pain to consumers around the world. </p>
<p>This move will also give Victoria’s emissions reduction target a shot in the arm. Nationally, a third of our emissions come from electricity. In brown-coal capital Victoria, it’s traditionally been 50%. Clean power will get the state about halfway to its emissions targets. The announcement today made no mention of other emissions sources – manufacturing, agriculture and transport. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/so-long-loy-yang-shutting-australias-dirtiest-coal-plant-a-decade-early-wont-jeopardise-our-electricity-supply-191577">So long, Loy Yang: shutting Australia’s dirtiest coal plant a decade early won’t jeopardise our electricity supply</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="wind turbines in ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Offshore wind, such as this facility off Germany, is booming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>But is it possible?</h2>
<p>Close your eyes tightly and squeeze. Can you see it? Yes, it’s physically possible – just. But I raise two serious caveats.</p>
<p>First, it means coal fired power will have to end. Second, we have to find ways of building the unsexy but crucial part of the clean energy system: transmission and storage. There’s a lot to build in a short time and the cost will tend to offset the low cost on the renewable generation. </p>
<p>When the coal power stations were built in the Latrobe Valley east of Melbourne – where the coal is mined – state governments footed the bill for the huge transmission towers needed to take the electricity to where people live and work. </p>
<p>Now we need to do that again but on a much larger scale. This poses serious risks. Rural communities are almost guaranteed to push back on large new transmission lines. They may well be in favour of clean energy, but they don’t want big new power lines. </p>
<p>Some might say Australia can’t build like this any more. But we can, as our recent fossil fuel infrastructure builds show. Only a decade or so ago, Queensland built huge new gas export terminals at Gladstone. The cost blew out, but it was done. </p>
<p>We can do it, but it will cost us. The conversion of Snowy Hydro to a pumped hydro plant is way over budget and time. Current transmission projects like EnergyConnect, which will link NSW and South Australia, have seen budgets double. </p>
<p>We’ve done the easy part – solar on rooftops, wind and solar farms in places with good existing grid connections. That got Victoria’s renewables over 20%. Now comes the hard part – transmission, and storage. </p>
<p>Victoria has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/27/victoria-pledges-nations-most-ambitious-renewable-energy-storage-targets">already announced</a> a renewable storage target equal to half the state’s household use. But it will get harder and more expensive the closer we get to the 95% figure.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Transmission lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Energy Security Board has called for transmission infrastructure upgrades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What does this mean for energy markets?</h2>
<p>Some old-timers will shed a tear of joy at the news the SEC is coming back. But why the reversal, after the state government privatised the electricity market in the 1990s? </p>
<p>The reason is the market is not delivering the clean energy transition. For years, we’ve pretended the market can make the shift by itself, but it hasn’t. Continuous government intervention and policy changes certainly didn’t help. Working through the government-appointed Energy Security Board to reform the market didn’t work either. </p>
<p>We’ve needed these new transmission links for years and the existing regulatory model hasn’t delivered. </p>
<p>The announcement today represents a fundamental change. The energy market is set to change completely. Yes, there are risks in having the state government do it. But governments like Victoria’s have been emboldened by the pandemic, which saw all of us look to them – not the market – to steer us through. </p>
<p>What happens to the workers on coal plants? Victoria is quite well placed already. The closure of the highly polluting Hazelwood plant in 2017 caught the state government by surprise. In response, it created the LaTrobe Valley Authority to help people transition to other work. </p>
<p>Five years later, the authority is still there. That’s good – it’s well placed to help ex-coal workers find jobs in other industries such as wind turbine manufacture or construction. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">The end of coal-fired power is in sight, even with private interests holding out</a>
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<h2>It may surprise you, but we’re a role model</h2>
<p>When I’m asked which countries Australia should look to on the energy transition, I can’t help but laugh. In reality, we’re at the forefront. Many other countries are looking at us for ideas. Last year, South Australia <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/16/south-australia-set-to-become-first-big-grid-to-run-on-100-renewables/">made history</a> by becoming the first gigawatt scale grid to (briefly) run on 100% renewables. </p>
<p>While we’ve historically been highly dependent on fossil fuels, we have also had a competitive advantage in shifting. After all, we have rather a lot of sun, wind and land. </p>
<p>So, the verdict on Victoria’s upgraded ambition? 10/10 for vision. But there’s a lot of heavy lifting involved in making it a reality. And the issues we often think of – where to build renewables – are no longer the issue. Now we need old-fashioned transmission towers and high voltage powerlines – and fast. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It's time the grid returned to public hands</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Through his superannuation fund, Tony Wood owns shares in companies that could have an interest in the topic of this article.</span></em></p>Victoria’s new renewable plan is welcome - but it relies on building unsexy and challenging new transmission lines across the state.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910722022-10-02T19:02:48Z2022-10-02T19:02:48ZWill the teal independents be disruptors in Victorian politics?<p>Victorians will be heading to the polls on November 26 to select their next state government.</p>
<p>This will be the first election since Labor won national government in May, and it will also be the first election in Victoria since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>There is also great interest about the “teal” independents and whether they will be able to consolidate their position in Australian politics as a potential disruptor to the established party system.</p>
<p>Many expect they will further challenge the established parties in the Victorian election. But there are some key differences from May’s federal election that mean it might not pan out the same way for the teals. </p>
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<h2>The political context in Victoria</h2>
<p>The Daniel Andrews-led Labor Party was first elected to government in 2014. In 2018, Labor achieved a remarkably strong result, winning 55 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly after attracting 57% of the two party preferred vote.</p>
<p>The Coalition, on the other hand, experienced a disastrous result in 2018, winning just 27 seats. The Liberal Party in particular had a very poor election as it lost ground across many urban electorates.</p>
<p>Shock losses included the seat of Hawthorn, in which incumbent John Pesutto lost his seat on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-24/victoria-election-john-pesutto-told-he-lost-his-seat-live-on-tv/10552112">live television</a>, while the party came perilously close to losing traditionally safe seats in Melbourne’s east.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-gives-labor-big-lead-three-months-before-election-189473">Victorian Newspoll gives Labor big lead three months before election</a>
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<h2>The road to the 2022 poll</h2>
<p>The pandemic had a profound impact on this term of parliament. In an attempt to stop the spread of the virus, the Andrews government implemented lockdowns and curfews that led Melbourne to become known in some media as the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/22/melbourne-freedom-day-worlds-most-locked-down-city-takes-first-cautious-steps-to-reopening">world’s most locked down city</a>”.</p>
<p>This shaped the policy debate and it appeared that Victorian politics became <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1329878X20981780">highly polarised</a> between those who supported the government’s policies, and those who demanded a different approach.</p>
<p>Opinion polls, however, suggested the government continued to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-claws-back-support-as-victorians-stick-by-incumbents-20210825-p58lqe.html">enjoy the support</a> of Victorian voters in the midst of the pandemic.</p>
<p>In 2021, the Liberal Party, ostensibly concerned with these poll results, deposed Michael O’Brien as leader and reinstated Matthew Guy to lead the party to the 2022 poll.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-liberals-lost-the-moral-middle-class-and-now-the-teal-independents-may-well-cash-in-182293">How the Liberals lost the 'moral middle class' - and now the teal independents may well cash in</a>
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<h2>Teals in Victoria?</h2>
<p>In the federal election in May, the “teal candidates” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/teal-independents-who-are-they-how-did-they-upend-australia-election">mobilised</a> and succeeded in winning seats from the Liberal Party. In Victoria, the Liberal Party lost its previously safe electorates of Goldstein and Kooyong to teal candidates.</p>
<p>Based on these results, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/polling-shows-gen-teal-wave-could-wash-over-victorian-election-20220729-p5b5pu.html">there’s an expectation</a> the “teals” will provide further challenges to the established parties, especially the Liberal Party.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/polling-shows-gen-teal-wave-could-wash-over-victorian-election-20220729-p5b5pu.html">Reported opinion polling</a>, for example, shows the Liberal Party is in danger of losing once-safe Victorian seats such as Brighton, Sandringham, Caulfield, and Kew to teal candidates.</p>
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<p>There are, however, some factors that differentiate the upcoming Victorian state election from last May’s federal election.</p>
<p>One key factor relates to fundraising rules which have changed in Victoria since the last election. Unlike the national level, Victoria now places significant constraints on political donations. As a result, political donations are capped at <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/candidates-and-parties/political-donations">$4,320 over a four year period</a> for a single donor, which makes an impact on the capacity of candidates to amass financial resources. These arrangements have been described by some commentators as a “<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/labor-s-campaign-funding-laws-build-100m-wall-to-keep-independents-out-20220908-p5bgim.html">wall to keep independents out</a>”.</p>
<p>The funding rules have already had an impact on the electoral contest with one nascent party, the Victorians Party, <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/victorians-party-announce-they-are-exiting-the-state-election-race/news-story/d1672e9990a8bdaca74b8344870bc7ce">deciding not to field candidates</a> because of these arrangements.</p>
<p>Another factor that may impact on the fortunes of teal candidates relates to how voters will judge the Liberal Party. At the national level, the teals were effective in targeting the Morrison Coalition government that seemingly appeared unable, or unwilling, to respond to their policy demands effectively.</p>
<p>In the Victorian context, the Coalition is in a weak position. This raises the question of whether voters will enthusiastically support challengers to a Liberal Party that has been out of government since 2014.</p>
<p>Furthermore, service delivery and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/17/matthew-guy-pledges-to-shelve-345bn-rail-project-to-invest-in-healthcare">infrastructure projects</a> have been prominent features of the political debate during the informal election campaign in Victoria. The electoral fortunes of the teals may be linked to how effectively they position themselves within this policy debate.</p>
<h2>Implications of the 2022 election</h2>
<p>The 2022 Victorian election will have significant implications for the party system, and policy debate, in the state.</p>
<p>For the Liberal Party, losing ground to either the teals or other candidates will further weaken the party in the state. The most recent opinion polls continue to show Labor to be in a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-heading-for-danslide-2-as-voters-turn-away-from-guy-s-liberals-20220921-p5bjrc.html">commanding position</a>. Unless the polls are off by some margin, the Coalition looks destined to be on the opposition benches for another four years.</p>
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<p>The challenges for Labor are different. The party is expected to win, and Premier Andrews may have to continually respond to questions about <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-5-senior-ministers-quitting-victorias-andrews-government-a-sign-of-renewal-or-decline-185857">succession and generational renewal</a> throughout the campaign.</p>
<p>The opportunity is there for the teals to make a major impact on the Victorian Parliament. It will be up to Victorians to determine whether that impact will be as powerful as what we saw at the national level in May.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s an expectation the “teals” will provide further challenges to the established parties in the Victorian election. But there are some key differences from May’s federal election.Zareh Ghazarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1901362022-09-21T22:08:39Z2022-09-21T22:08:39ZHow Victorian Labor’s failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485458/original/file-20220920-325-b0kwpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the 2018 Victorian state election, Labor easily won a majority in the lower house of the Victorian parliament, but the upper house result was an anti-democratic shambles, as the Greens won just one of the 40 upper house seats, while three parties with very small vote shares won seats.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">Victorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll</a>
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<p>The 2018 upper house result was due to “group voting tickets (GVT)”, in which parties choose the preferences of all people who vote for them “above the line”.</p>
<p>Results like in Victoria 2018 have led to GVT being scrapped in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_voting_ticket">New South Wales</a> before the 2003 election, the federal Senate before the 2016 election, and in South Australia before the 2018 election, while reforms to the Western Australian upper house <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-to-adopt-state-wide-election-for-the-legislative-council/">will be implemented</a> at the 2025 election.</p>
<p>Victoria is the last Australian jurisdiction that still uses GVT. All other jurisdictions that used GVT have replaced it with systems that allow voters to direct their own preferences above the line. Preferences are either completely optional (NSW, SA and WA) or require at least six boxes to be marked above the line (federal Senate).</p>
<p>GVT will be used at the November 26 Victorian state election, after no changes to the electoral law were made by Wednesday’s last Victorian <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/about/daily-calendar/yearly-sitting-dates">parliamentary sitting day</a> before the election.</p>
<p>Victoria uses eight upper house regions that return five members each, so a quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. In 2018 the Greens won 9.3% of the statewide upper house vote, but just one of 40 seats (2.5%). There were three occasions where a party won a seat in a region from under 0.1 quotas (1.5% of votes).</p>
<p>GVT allow very small parties to overtake far bigger parties on 100% preference flows from other parties’ above the line votes. When voters direct their own preferences, the GVT preference spiral does not occur. At the last federal election, preferences were only decisive in one Senate seat: <a href="https://theconversation.com/act-senate-result-pocock-defeats-liberals-in-first-time-liberals-have-not-won-one-act-senate-seat-184738">David Pocock’s win</a> in the ACT Senate.</p>
<h2>Labor has neglected to reform GVT</h2>
<p>Labor has been the Victorian government since the November 2014 state election, under Premier Daniel Andrews. In the eight years Labor has governed, they have never proposed anything to scrap GVT and move to a more democratic system. This is a dereliction of Labor’s responsibility to ensure elections are democratic.</p>
<p>At the 2018 election, the upper house result was 18 Labor out of 40, 11 Coalition, one Green, three Derryn Hinch Justice, two Liberal Democrats, and one each for Animal Justice, Sustainable Australia, Transport Matters, Fiona Patten and Shooters, Fishers & Farmers. As tied votes fail, 21 votes are needed to pass legislation.</p>
<p>Labor and the Greens alone could not pass reforms scrapping GVT through the current upper house, and the crossbenchers who owe their seats to GVT are not interested in reforms. But at the 2018 election, the Coalition lost three seats that they would have won under a fairer system.</p>
<p>The Coalition and Labor still easily have a combined majority in the upper house. Labor should have made a concrete proposal for reform. If the Coalition rejected that proposal, then the current situation would be their fault.</p>
<p>Labor has not even attempted to abolish GVT in the last eight years, so we will be stuck with an upper house elected by GVT for at least the next four years.</p>
<h2>Labor likely to suffer losses in upper house if vote share falls</h2>
<p>If the major parties are strong, the effect of GVT is reduced as they will win a large share of seats on filled quotas. In Victoria, if Labor won 50% in a region and the Coalition 33.3%, Labor would win three seats and the Coalition two.</p>
<p>Upper house vote shares at the 2018 election were 39.2% Labor, 29.4% Coalition, 9.3% Greens and 3.8% Hinch Justice. Labor won 16 of its 18 seats on raw quotas, and received some assistance in Western Metro and Northern Victoria regions.</p>
<p>At the May federal election, the Victorian Senate result had the Coalition down 3.6% from the 2019 election, but Labor’s vote was only up 0.3% with the Greens up 3.2%. Lower <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-gives-labor-big-lead-three-months-before-election-189473">house polling</a> for the state election suggests Labor’s primary vote will be down on 2018, with the Greens up.</p>
<p>If Labor’s vote falls, they will win fewer upper house seats on raw quotas, meaning they could be beaten by GVT snowballs. The Greens would benefit from a higher vote share to allow them to reach quota in the Southern Metro region as well as Northern Metro.</p>
<p>In 2018, Labor did well and the Greens and Coalition badly from GTV, but that will not necessarily apply at the forthcoming election. Even if Labor wins the lower house decisively, as polls currently indicate, the upper house could be a massive mess.</p>
<p>I have no idea which particular others will win seats: it’s a lottery that depends on preference deals. But Labor’s failure to do anything about this system could lead to anti-vaxxers winning seats.</p>
<h2>What voters can do to thwart preference deals</h2>
<p>For a valid vote, Victoria only requires <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/2022-state-election/how-to-fill-out-a-ballot-paper">five preferences below the line</a>. The below the line section of the ballot paper has candidate names grouped by party. Voting below the line means the voter controls where their preferences go; it’s not up to party preference deals.</p>
<p>For a meaningful vote, it’s best if people vote at least 1-5 below the line. They can continue to number beyond 5, but only five preferences are required for a formal vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Labor has had ample time to reform upper house voting - its failure to do so is a blight on democracy in the state.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895472022-09-01T20:02:50Z2022-09-01T20:02:50ZGovernments are making nursing degrees cheaper or ‘free’ – these plans are not going to help attract more students<p>Australian politicians like the idea that cheap nursing courses can increase the number of nurses, one of Australia’s most <a href="https://www.nationalskillscommission.gov.au/topics/employment-projections">in-demand occupations over the next five years</a>. </p>
<p>As of 2021, the previous federal government cut nursing student contributions by 40% to <a href="https://www.studyassist.gov.au/help-loans-commonwealth-supported-places-csps/student-contribution-amounts">just under A$4,000 a year</a>. The Victorian government is going a step further, <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/making-it-free-study-nursing-and-midwifery">temporarily covering tuition costs</a> for nursing and midwifery undergraduate degrees. As Premier Daniel Andrews describes the move, it is part of “building an army of homegrown health workers to care for Victorians”.</p>
<p>Neither policy is likely to have much impact on the numbers of students who start nursing courses. But if redesigned as a cash payment, the Victorian policy would make it easier for nursing students to complete their courses. </p>
<h2>The Victorian government policy on nursing and midwifery courses</h2>
<p>The Victorian government policy will apply to students beginning undergraduate nursing and midwifery courses in 2023 and 2024. </p>
<p>These students will still have to pay, or defer under the <a href="https://www.studyassist.gov.au/help-loans">HELP loan scheme</a>, some student contributions while they study. The Victorian government will pay $9,000 while the student is enrolled, $3,000 less than the $12,000 total course cost for a three year nursing degree. </p>
<p>Nursing and midwifery graduates who work in the Victorian public health sector for two years after finishing their course will receive an additional $7,500. This could clear their remaining HELP debt.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-albanese-announces-more-than-1-billion-in-federal-state-tafe-funding-189776">Word from The Hill: Albanese announces more than $1 billion in federal-state TAFE funding</a>
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<h2>Nursing degree fees are not an obstacle</h2>
<p>Thanks to the HELP loan scheme, tuition fees are not a major obstacle to domestic students signing up to higher education. </p>
<p>HELP repayments should be considered in educational decision-making, but in the context of the financial benefits of a degree. It is important to note HELP loans are only repaid on <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Rates/HELP,-TSL-and-SFSS-repayment-thresholds-and-rates/">annual earnings above $48,361</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews (centre) greets a healthcare worker on Tuesday, during a visit with NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482221/original/file-20220901-16-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482221/original/file-20220901-16-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482221/original/file-20220901-16-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482221/original/file-20220901-16-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482221/original/file-20220901-16-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482221/original/file-20220901-16-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482221/original/file-20220901-16-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews (centre) announced the'free’ nursing studies policy ahead of a state election in November.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Using Census 2016 data, the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/mapping-australian-higher-education-2018/">Grattan Institute calculated</a> a female nursing graduate with mid-range income earned about $650,000 more over her career, after tax, than a woman who finished her education at Year 12. </p>
<p>While other careers are more lucrative than nursing, reducing nursing student contributions to zero cannot make a significant financial difference to the choice between nursing and other courses. It will save nursing graduates about $12,000 – equivalent to two or three months difference in the length of a working life – not the difference in lifetime earnings between occupations. </p>
<h2>Living expenses</h2>
<p>Although student contributions can be deferred with a HELP loan, most students fund their own living expenses. Student income support <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/how-much-youth-allowance-for-students-and-apprentices-you-can-get?context=43916">payments are low</a> and, apart from a <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2022/06/23/the-student-income-support-system-under-covid-19/">COVID-related spike</a>, the number of students receiving them has <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-728daa75-06e8-442d-931c-93ecc6a57880/details">trended down</a>.</p>
<p>To finance themselves while studying, most full-time tertiary students – <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2022/06/22/the-bust-then-boom-in-tertiary-education-student-employment-under-covid-19/">about 70%</a> in recent months – have paid jobs. According to the higher education <a href="https://www.qilt.edu.au/surveys/student-experience-survey-(ses)#report">Student Experience Survey released last week</a>, 37% of students say paid work interferes with their studies. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-we-know-there-is-a-skills-shortage-here-are-3-jobs-summit-ideas-to-start-fixing-it-right-away-188833">Yes, we know there is a 'skills shortage'. Here are 3 jobs summit ideas to start fixing it right away</a>
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<p>For nursing students, clinical training requirements create additional living expense issues. They <a href="http://anmac.org.au/standards-and-review/registered-nurse">must undertake</a> at least 800 hours of supervised activity in a hospital or another clinical setting. </p>
<p>Clinical training may take place at a location far from the student’s home. Nursing students have often <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1471595321001487">reported this as an issue</a>, as they may not be able to do their normal paid work and they <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-29/regional-hospitals-set-to-benefit-from-free-nursing-courses/101381724">incur additional travel costs</a>. </p>
<h2>Scholarships paid in cash would help most</h2>
<p>The Victorian government announcement refers directly to tuition costs. But some of it will be paid in cash, as the total value is $16,500 for students who complete their nursing degrees and then spend two years working in the Victorian public sector.</p>
<p>This exceeds the cost of a three-year nursing degree by several thousand dollars.</p>
<p>Either way, a nursing graduate who meets all the program conditions will be $16,500 better off. The timing of this financial benefit is the only difference between paying student contributions and giving the student cash. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-physio-will-see-you-now-why-health-workers-need-to-broaden-their-roles-to-fix-the-workforce-crisis-188984">The physio will see you now. Why health workers need to broaden their roles to fix the workforce crisis</a>
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<p>If the student has all or most of their student contributions paid while studying the cash benefit comes after graduation in early career, through reduced HELP repayments. This benefits them when their annual income already exceeds $48,361.</p>
<p>If the student is paid while studying, it delivers cash when their income is much lower. Nursing and midwifery students could use their cash scholarship to help manage the cost of clinical training. It could also reduce the number of students who drop out because they cannot afford to keep studying, or who study part-time to fit in with paid work, delaying course completion and the start of their nursing career.</p>
<h2>Can the Victorian scheme increase nursing commencements?</h2>
<p>If paid in cash, the Victorian nursing and midwifery financial assistance could improve course completion times and rates. But it won’t increase the number of people commencing nursing and midwifery courses.</p>
<p>Demand for nursing courses already <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2022/08/29/bonded-scholarships-for-nursing-students-in-victoria/">exceeds the supply of student places</a>. Universities face two constraints on increasing the number of nursing students – limited capacity for clinical training and the total funding per student they receive, including both Commonwealth and student contributions.</p>
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<img alt="Treasurer Jim Chalmers speaks to a nursing teacher and student at Griffith University." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482220/original/file-20220901-18-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482220/original/file-20220901-18-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482220/original/file-20220901-18-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482220/original/file-20220901-18-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482220/original/file-20220901-18-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482220/original/file-20220901-18-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482220/original/file-20220901-18-qz3teb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Treasurer Jim Chalmers speaks to a nursing teacher Hazel Rands and student Bethany Gordon at Griffith University in July.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jono Searle/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Ensuring all students can complete the clinical training component of their course is a major practical issue for nursing faculties. In response to the Victorian government announcement, the head of nursing at the Australian Catholic University <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-30/victorian-nursing-funding-package-may-not-boost-student-numbers/101386418">said they could take another 100 students</a> at their Ballarat campus if professional experience placements were available. </p>
<p>Nursing schools <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/university-chief-warns-free-degrees-alone-won-t-boost-nurse-numbers-20220829-p5bdm6.html">are looking for ways to expand</a>, but for a stretched health system, taking on more students creates additional work before it leads to additional workers. </p>
<p>Another problem for universities is that as part of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-flaws-in-job-ready-graduates-package-will-add-to-the-turmoil-in-australian-higher-education-147740">Job-ready Graduates policy</a>, the Morrison government cut total funding per nursing student place by 8%. </p>
<p>The new funding rate was based on estimated average teaching and scholarship costs of nursing, but created problems for universities with above-average costs and reduced financial incentives for all universities to enrol more nursing students. The current government is reviewing Job-ready Graduates, but no quick financial fix is likely. </p>
<h2>Solving the right problems</h2>
<p>For high-profile occupations like nursing, student demand usually mirrors the labour market. COVID-19 increased the need for nurses and <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2022/08/29/bonded-scholarships-for-nursing-students-in-victoria/">demand for nursing courses spiked</a>. </p>
<p>For the higher education system to meet workforce needs, the issues are more often the supply of student places than the demand for them, and course completions rather than commencements. </p>
<p>More clinical placement capacity and scholarships aimed at living expenses should be favoured over cutting student course costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Norton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Upfront cash payments would be more helpful to students than cheaper course fees - as this makes cost-of-living easier while studying.Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1894732022-08-29T01:42:06Z2022-08-29T01:42:06ZVictorian Newspoll gives Labor big lead three months before election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481444/original/file-20220829-40207-voleep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian election will be held in three months, on November 26. A Victorian state Newspoll, conducted August 22-25 from a sample of 1,027, gave Labor a 56-44 lead (57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election). Primary votes were 41% Labor (42.9% at election), 36% Coalition (35.2%), 13% Greens (10.7%) and 10% for all Others (11.2%).</p>
<p>Labor Premier Daniel Andrews had a 54% satisfied and 41% dissatisfied rating, for a net approval of +13, while Liberal leader Matthew Guy was at 49% dissatisfied, 32% satisfied (net -17). Andrews led Guy as better premier by 51-34. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/25/victorian-election-minus-three-months/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>Labor has a large poll lead, and would easily retain its majority in the Victorian lower house if this poll were replicated at the election. There are still three months to go, and Coalition parties in the states should do better with a federal Labor government.</p>
<p>At the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDefault-27966.htm">federal election</a>, independents won ten of the 151 House of Representatives seats, an increase of seven from the 2019 election, and six of those seven new independents were “teals”. It will be interesting to see whether the teals succeed at the state election; a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/shadow-of-drink-drive-mp-lingers-over-battle-for-kew-as-teals-name-candidate-20220825-p5bclq.html">teal candidate</a> has nominated for the normally safe Liberal seat of Kew.</p>
<p>A Victorian state <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-voters-give-labor-the-lead-on-integrity-20220824-p5bc9z.html">Resolve poll for The Age</a>, conducted with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-resolve-poll-since-election-has-huge-labor-lead-and-labor-also-has-massive-lead-in-victoria-188587">federal Resolve poll</a> last week that gave Labor a massive lead, had Labor leading the Coalition by 42-21 on best party to govern with integrity and honesty.</p>
<p>By 53-18, voters expected Labor to win the election. As this poll was a subsample of the national poll, the sample was only “more than 500” – not enough for a voting intentions poll.</p>
<p>Before the federal election campaign, Resolve was giving voting intentions from Victoria and NSW every two months based on state subsamples from their national monthly polls that averaged two months’ data. If Resolve does a national poll in September, I expect Victorian voting intentions from an average of that poll and this one.</p>
<h2>Federal Essential: leaders’ favourability ratings</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/23-august-2022">Essential poll</a> asked respondents to rate several party leaders on a scale from 0 to 10. Scores of 0-3 were counted as negative, 4-6 as neutral and 7-10 as positive. As well as neutral, there were “unsure” and “never heard of” categories. Ratings for Albanese and Dutton should not be compared with standard approve or disapprove questions.</p>
<p>Albanese was at 43% positive and 23% negative, Dutton was at 34% negative and 26% positive and Nationals leader David Littleproud was at 27% negative, 21% positive. Greens leader Adam Bandt was at 37% negative, 23% positive, Jacqui Lambie was at 27% positive, 27% negative and Pauline Hanson was at 48% negative, 22% positive.</p>
<p>80% thought the government should have an active role in shaping the economy, while 20% thought the government should stay out and leave it up to the market. 58% thought Australia’s economic system is broken and the government needs to make fundamental changes, while 42% thought our economic system is basically sound and only minor changes are required.</p>
<p>By 57-9, respondents thought small business views of the economy aligned with their best interests. Community organisations were at 51-9, unions at 36-28 and big business at 31-29 against alignment. This Essential poll was taken in the days before August 23 from a sample of 1,065.</p>
<p>There has not been a federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-newspoll-since-election-gives-albanese-honeymoon-ratings-australias-poor-success-rate-at-referendums-187690">Newspoll since August 1</a>. After a long break following the 2019 federal election, Newspoll usually appeared once every three weeks until it was ramped up early this year prior to the election. During the election campaign there was a Newspoll every week. It’s plausible the long gap between Newspolls now is to offset the intense campaign period.</p>
<p>Federal parliament <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/">resumes for two weeks</a> on September 5. Labor will aim to pass their climate legislation through the Senate. The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-climate-change-bill-passes-lower-house-20220804-p5b759.html">Greens supported</a> it in the House of Representatives after Labor made changes. Labor has 26 of the 76 senators and the Greens 12, so Labor needs one more vote, most likely from either David Pocock or the Jacqui Lambie Network.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-senate-results-labor-the-greens-and-david-pocock-will-have-a-majority-of-senators-185365">Final Senate results: Labor, the Greens and David Pocock will have a majority of senators</a>
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<h2>Australia Institute survey on China</h2>
<p>Dynata conducted surveys about China in both Taiwan and Australia for the left-wing Australia Institute, from samples of just over 1,000 in both countries. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that 47% of Australians expected a Chinese attack on Australia soon (9%) or sometime (38%), with just 19% opting for never and 33% uncommitted.</p>
<p>By 60-21, respondents did not think Australia would be able to defend itself from such an attack without international assistance. 57% thought support would come from the US, 11% thought not and 19% said “it depends”. 35% thought the US and Australia would defeat China, 9% that China would win and 24% a draw of some sort.</p>
<p>The surveys were conducted August 13-16, after US Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on August 2, and China responded with military exercises from August 4 to 7.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian EMRS poll: Liberals regain ground</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-August-2022.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted August 8-11 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 41% of the vote (up two since June), Labor 31% (up one), the Greens 13% (steady) and oll Others 15% (down three). Liberal incumbent Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 47-35 (47-34 in June).</p>
<p>A Tasmanian upper house byelection will occur in the Labor-held Pembroke on September 10. According to analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/08/legislative-council-2022-pembroke-by.html">Kevin Bonham</a>, the upper house currently has an 8-7 left majority, so a Liberal win would see the right gain control.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is still three months to go until the Victorian election, but the Labor government remains in a very strong position.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858572022-06-28T19:57:21Z2022-06-28T19:57:21ZIs 5 senior ministers quitting Victoria’s Andrews government a sign of renewal – or decline?<p>Renewal or decline? These are the competing narratives that now surround Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Labor government, with <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/four-more-senior-victorian-ministers-to-announce-retirement-20220623-p5aw3j.html">five senior ministers</a> exiting cabinet as a preliminary to leaving parliament at November’s state election.</p>
<p>The resignations of this quintet – deputy premier James Merlino, Lisa Neville, Martin Foley, Martin Pakula, and Richard Wynne – is the equivalent of the loss of one quarter of the cabinet. </p>
<p>Another seven ministers have either voluntarily resigned from cabinet or been pushed out during the course of this term of government. This is indisputably a high ministerial turnover.</p>
<p>Yet in another way, this rush to the door is unremarkable. The Andrews administration is already the second longest serving Labor government in Victorian history and at November’s poll will be asking the electorate to extend its tenure to 12 years. </p>
<p>If Andrews were to remain premier until the end of 2026 (which seems more unlikely given the events of the past week) only the post-Second World War Liberal behemoth Henry Bolte would have survived longer in office.</p>
<p>That kind of longevity brings wear and tear. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-treaty-authority-between-first-peoples-and-the-victorian-government-is-a-vital-step-towards-a-treaty-184739">A new Treaty Authority between First Peoples and the Victorian government is a vital step towards a treaty</a>
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<h2>A taxing profession</h2>
<p>Though there is public cynicism about politicians, theirs is a taxing profession.</p>
<p>The five cabinet members who are departing politics in November have a combined total of nearly one hundred years of experience in parliament. </p>
<p>Ministerial responsibilities are particularly demanding and during the COVID-19 pandemic became even more onerous.</p>
<p>There is then an argument that turnover in the composition of cabinet is a good thing. It does bring opportunity for rejuvenation. </p>
<p>Rejuvenation depends, of course, on whether there are still existing reserves of talent on the backbench of Andrews’ ageing government to cover the departures.</p>
<h2>Goodbye James Merlino, hello Jacinta Allan</h2>
<p>Of all the changes to the composition of the Andrews government in the wake of last week’s ministerial resignations, the most significant was Jacinta Allan’s replacement of Merlino as deputy premier. </p>
<p>There are two types of deputy: the loyal lieutenant and the leader in waiting. Merlino was the former – he did not covet the premiership himself. </p>
<p>From all accounts, he also had the necessary skill set to provide an effective foil to Andrews. Andrews is a dominating force within his own government and is not shy of treading on toes. </p>
<p>By way of contrast, as demonstrated when he was acting premier for an extended period during 2021, Merlino was more consultative in style and had a calming influence.</p>
<p>Andrews and Merlino were from different factions and there was an expectation that faction chiefs would insist on the preservation of that arrangement.</p>
<p>However, in a dramatic assertion of his authority, Andrews pre-empted the factions and his parliamentary colleagues by publicly anointing Allan (who, like the premier, is a member of the Socialist Left faction) as Merlino’s replacement. </p>
<p>Presented with a fait accompli, the Labor Caucus dutifully assented to Allan’s elevation.</p>
<p>Andrews’ nomination of Allan as deputy premier is full of meaning. He will have done so in the knowledge (and expectation) she will be a different mould of deputy than was Merlino; she will be more than a loyal lieutenant.</p>
<p>Instead, Allan is now recognised as the heir apparent to Andrews. This was, in short, a succession plan; Andrews is trying to create the conditions for a Labor dynasty that outlasts him.</p>
<h2>Speculation grows about Daniel Andrews’ own future</h2>
<p>Indeed, one of the by-products of the spate of departures from the government and the installation of Allan as deputy premier is that speculation will inevitably grow about Andrews’ own future. </p>
<p>This is likely to be a talking point in November’s election campaign. </p>
<p>Having towered over the Victorian political landscape since his election as premier in November 2014, managing expectations about Andrews’ future exit will be a challenge but also an opportunity for the government.</p>
<p>Looking ahead to November’s election, of all the things that will threaten Labor’s continuing grip on office probably the most dangerous will be an “it’s time” factor.</p>
<p>That is electorate fatigue with a government that will be asking for more than a decade in office. Unquestionably, Andrews will be the focal point of that problem for Labor. </p>
<p>Front and centre in everything the government does, and his prominence especially heightened during the COVID-19 pandemic when he became a figure of national curiosity, there is a risk Andrews will have worn out his welcome with a public that may hanker for life after Dan.</p>
<h2>Remaking an ageing government</h2>
<p>Jacinta Allan’s heir apparent status and an understanding that Andrews is likely to depart some time during a third term may actually become a means for Labor to mitigate the “it’s time” effect.</p>
<p>The recognition that Allan is in line to become Victoria’s second woman premier (behind Joan Kirner) can also further burnish the government’s handsome record of promoting women to senior leadership roles.</p>
<p>The hardest thing for an ageing government is to remake itself.</p>
<p>On balance, last week’s developments in Spring Street represent the first step towards Victorian Labor performing that elusive feat.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-5-4bn-big-housing-build-it-is-big-but-the-social-housing-challenge-is-even-bigger-150161">Victoria's $5.4bn Big Housing Build: it is big, but the social housing challenge is even bigger</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Strangio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The hardest thing for an ageing government is to remake itself. On balance, last week’s developments in Spring Street represent the first step towards Victorian Labor performing that elusive feat.Paul Strangio, Professor of Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.