Many of the more formal models for predicting the pandemic try to understand why changes happen – but often it can be more accurate to ignore the reasons and simply look at the data.
The South African government and some of its advisors want to have the best of both worlds. They want to use incorrect predictions by early models about the COVID-19 pandemic to claim success.
Neuroscientist Karl Friston claims generative modelling techniques produce more valid predictions than conventional models, but the evidence so far is limited.
The science to policy process that was developed to guide climate mitigation decisions can be applied to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, without having to be reinvented.
Predicting how a virus will spread — and its effects — relies on mathematically sound and accurate models that account for factors like weather patterns and human behaviour.
Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne