tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/populism-13481/articlesPopulism – La Conversation2024-03-01T13:34:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219362024-03-01T13:34:06Z2024-03-01T13:34:06ZMy Malaysia ordeal shows how religion can fuse with populist nationalism to silence dissent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578729/original/file-20240228-16-yogbdr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C119%2C5720%2C3673&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malaysian Islamists rally in favor of sharia law on Nov. 20, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/malaysia-islamist-party-supporters-held-a-rally-to-protect-news-photo/1793715130?adppopup=true">Zahim Mohd/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I hadn’t expected my book tour in Malaysia to end with a confrontation with men who identified themselves as police in a Kuala Lumpur airport.</p>
<p>I arrived in the Muslim-majority country in early January 2024 to promote <a href="https://bookshop.irfront.net/product/islam-autoritarianisme-dan-kemunduran-bangsa-suatu-perbandingan-global-dan-pensejarahan/">the Malay translation</a> of my book “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/islam-authoritarianism-and-underdevelopment-global-and-historical-comparison?format=PB">Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment</a>,” an academic analysis of the political and socioeconomic crises facing many Muslim societies today.</p>
<p>But my visit attracted unwarranted <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/692340">attention</a>. Some conservatives and Islamists labeled me in <a href="https://www.facebook.com/share/p/osCx6x9uHoeziJ7a/?mibextid=I6gGtw">social media</a> a “<a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/22/im-a-practising-muslim-and-oppose-secularism-says-academic/">liberal</a>” – a term used by <a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2015/01/18/doubting-religious-authorities-part-of-liberalism-jakim-dg-says/821833">Malaysia’s federal agency</a> administering Islamic affairs to denote those against the official religion, Sunni Islam. This was followed by <a href="https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/480031">the cancellation</a> of my book launch <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/06/book-launch-by-us-academic-cancelled-after-pressure-from-conservatives/">event</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, I continued my program of other talks. Two men who identified themselves as <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/693049">police officers came</a> to my last event and questioned my publisher.</p>
<p>The following day, the same men <a href="https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02qwLXFcVopg33CF879Ri9av8AJ9GvGQzbqZqcBF3Gi9jgZqSsmEM19kewCoUkAD4ul&id=100012201094873">interrogated me and tried to seize my passport</a> in Kuala Lumpur International Airport as I was due to embark on a flight to Pakistan. Concerned over my safety, I canceled a series of talks planned for <a href="https://thefridaytimes.com/11-Jan-2024/thinkfest-2024-set-to-bring-dynamic-lineup-of-academics-and-thought-leaders-to-lahore">Lahore</a> and Islamabad and returned home to the United States.</p>
<p>When the incident became <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/11/us-scholar-claims-he-feared-arrest-at-klia/">national news</a>, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-police-commission-ipcc-misconduct-4050961">Malaysia’s</a> police inspector-general <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/11/us-based-academic-not-on-police-radar-says-igp/">denied that officers were sent to confront me</a>. Yet, a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/story.php/?story_fbid=685001657151111&id=100069238491031&paipv=0&eav=AfYy1uNmtR1OBKb9QhQJU0WcL8AMkNYPwJM-g8bNXTmx3MHzysTnZX362yo7MfSNK14&_rdr">human rights group</a> has called for a <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/14/ask-igp-to-name-cop-who-approached-scholar-at-klia-ngo-tells-ipcc">more thorough investigation</a> into <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/693137">my case</a>.</p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/secularism-and-state-policies-toward-religion/10F825409B3B7E7C3B35C443B1B6FF17">religion and politics in comparative perspective</a>, I don’t see my ordeal as an isolated example of religious intolerance in Muslim-majority countries. Instead, it taps into something wider.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw8QL6elUSI&t=17s">My research</a> shows that there is a rising <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0w4DikCK4Y&list=PLtoVEQO2iwNtOymVhfS9pMeP5z7WrYTFz&index=31">global trend</a> against dissenting and minority religious views. Analyzing this trend is crucial to understand why right-wing populist leaders are now ruling diverse countries, such as <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/religion-nationalism-and-populism-turkey-under-akp">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-05-18/putin-appeals-to-russian-church-as-dangers-to-his-regime-grow">Russia</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/28/israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-democracy-protests-donald-trump">Israel</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/30/world/canada/modi-canada-hindu-nationalism.html">India</a>, and how they may come to power in other places, including <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/donald-trump-allies-christian-nationalism-00142086">the United States</a>. </p>
<p>All these countries have recently experienced the combination of three movements: religious conservatism, nationalism and populism.</p>
<h2>Religion and nationalism: Old enemies, new allies</h2>
<p>In both Christian and Muslim history, nationalism emerged in reaction to the religious establishment. Scholars of nationalism such as <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/products/1126-imagined-communities">Benedict Anderson</a> explain its origins in Europe after the 16th century by the expansion of vernacular languages, national churches and nation-states at the expense of Latin, the Vatican and divinely ordained dynasties. </p>
<p>Similarly, in many Muslim-majority countries, there was a tension between <a href="https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-secularism-in-the-arab-world.html">Islamists and nationalists</a>. The Islamists pushed for traditional religious education and Islamic law, and emphasized global Islamic identity. Nationalists, however, modernized schools, established secular laws and stressed national identity.</p>
<p>This tension continued throughout the 20th century in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7312/kuru15932">Turkey</a>, where nationalists led by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1ch7679">Mustafa Kemal Ataturk</a> founded a secular republic in the 1920s. There was a similar struggle in Egypt between the Islamist <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-two-islamic-groups-fell-from-power-to-persecution-egypts-muslim-brotherhood-and-turkeys-gulenists-120800">Muslim Brotherhood</a> and the nationalist military officers who built the republic under the leadership of secularist <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvc7728b">Gamal Abdel Nasser</a> in the 1950s.</p>
<p>Today, however, religious and nationalist forces are often political allies. For a decade, such an alliance has existed in Russia between the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/9/far-from-harmless-patriarch-kirill-backs-putins-war-but-at-what-cost">Orthodox Patriarch Kirill and President Vladimir Putin</a>. Laws punishing <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-prosecuting-insults-to-religious-feelings/28678284.html#">insults to religious feelings</a> have been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22090308">expanded</a>, and <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2017/04/14/patriarch-kirill-from-ambitious-reformer-to-state-hardliner-a57725">Orthodox Christian values</a> returned to school curricula.</p>
<p>Analysts define <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/world/europe/ukraine-war-russian-orthodox-church.html">Kirill’s strong support</a> for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a reflection of <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-03-29/russian-orthodox-patriarch-offers-a-spiritual-defense-of-the-war-in-ukraine">the nationalist ideology they share</a>.</p>
<p>In Turkey, the main religious authority is <a href="https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/en-US/Home/Index/">Diyanet</a>, a government agency that controls mosques and pays the salaries of their imams. Although the Diyanet <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/CATS_Working_Paper_Nr_2__Guenter_Seufert.pdf">was established by Ataturk</a> to serve secular nationalist policies, it has become <a href="https://360info.org/how-religion-still-means-power-in-secular-turkey/">an important pillar</a> of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, which mixes Islamism with nationalism. While Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party represents Islamism, its coalition partner for a decade, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/16/in-turkeys-elections-nationalism-is-the-real-winner">Nationalist Action Party</a>, has an explicitly nationalist agenda. </p>
<p>In the Arab world, there was a wrangling between Nasser’s secular nationalist Egypt and the Islamic state of Saudi Arabia <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/29/opinion/international/nasr-islamic-comrades-no-more.html">in the 1950s and 1960s</a>. No longer. Egypt, which has moved to Islamism with a constitution referring to sharia <a href="https://blog-iacl-aidc.org/2021-posts/29-6-21-the-egyptian-supreme-constitutional-courts-interpretation-of-the-islamic-sharia-as-a-constitutional-check-mrbng">as the source of law since 1980</a>, and Saudi Arabia, which has recently become <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mbs-behind-saudi-nationalist-surge-by-bernard-haykel-2023-09">less Islamist and more nationalist</a> through Crown Prince <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2020/05/05/the-new-populist-nationalism-in-saudi-arabia-imagined-utopia-by-royal-decree/">Mohammed bin Salman</a>’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1HfRhfHwUc&t=744s">reforms</a>, are now <a href="https://apnews.com/article/egypt-saudi-arabia-sissi-bin-salman-economy-0ae05c6dbe715433015db07ef97519bb">regional allies</a>.</p>
<h2>The age of populist leaders</h2>
<p>What explains this transformation in the relationship between religion and nationalism? I believe that populism is the glue that brings them together.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/populism-concept-defines-our-age">Populists</a> often claim that they are defending “the people” against both elites and minorities, especially immigrants.</p>
<p>Recently, populist nationalist leaders have used religious symbols to mobilize their followers. For example, in 2016, <a href="https://unherd.com/2022/02/putins-spiritual-destiny/">Putin</a> established an <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/in-political-move-russian-patriarch-blesses-putin-backed-paris-church/a-36633675">Orthodox Cathedral in Paris</a> on the banks of the Seine River, near the Eiffel Tower. And in 2020, Erdogan declared the <a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/hagia-sophia-islamism-and-secularism-in-turkey">Hagia Sophia a mosque again</a> – it had been a church for over a millennium until the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul in 1453 and a mosque for about 500 years until Ataturk made it a museum.</p>
<p>Most recently, on Jan. 22, 2024, India Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/22/modi-inaugurates-hindu-temple-on-site-of-razed-mosque-in-india">a Hindu temple in Ayodhya</a> on the site of a mosque that had been built in 1528 but <a href="https://thewire.in/communalism/babri-masjid-the-timeline-of-a-demolition">violently destroyed</a> in 1992 by Hindu radicals, after a century of controversies over the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man walks in a white robe in front of people dressed in orange and a temple." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi opens a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndiaElectionTemple/d3dde6bfe9034a4da87c29bfc954b254/photo?Query=Modi%20temple&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=424&currentItemNo=46">AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And while former U.S. President Donald Trump did not establish a cathedral, he did give a photo-op holding up <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/06/the-inconceivable-strangeness-of-trumps-bible-photo-op.html">a Bible at a crucial moment</a> – during the Black Lives Matter protests in June 2020 – as a sign of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/us/politics/trump-holds-bible-photo.html">his religious politics against the protesters</a>.</p>
<p>In such acts, populist leaders aim to incorporate religion and nationalism to serve their political agenda. Yet, for religious minorities, this symbolism may imply that they are secondary citizens.</p>
<h2>The future of religious minorities</h2>
<p>In several countries, the alliances between religious forces and populist nationalists have threatened <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYDUnk5RSj4&list=PLtoVEQO2iwNtOymVhfS9pMeP5z7WrYTFz&index=8&t=263s">minority rights</a>.</p>
<p>One such case is <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bbb229a29f2cc31b47fa99c/t/5c862a2053450a49a40c191d/1552296484138/Malaysia-Freedom-of-religion-brief-Advocacy-Analysis-brief-2019-ENG.pdf">Malaysia</a>, an <a href="https://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/release-content/key-findings-population-and-housing-census-of-malaysia-2020-administrative-district">ethnically and religiously diverse</a> country, where Muslim Malays are the majority, while Buddhist, Christian and Hindu communities constitute a third of society.</p>
<p>As I learned during my recent visit, Islam is at the center of political debates about nationalism in Malaysia. For example, on Jan. 13, 2024, Mahathir Mohamad, the once powerful former prime minister, said ethnically Chinese and Indian citizens of Malaysia are not fully “<a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/01/1000806/tun-m-believes-malaysian-indians-chinese-not-completely-loyal-country">loyal to the country</a>” and offered <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/693114">assimilation</a> as a <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/01/1001858/anwar-dr-mahathir-all-non-malays-are-disloyal-except-his-cronies">solution</a>.</p>
<p>Assimilation of ethnic minorities into the majority may not be limited by language and culture, because the country’s constitution connects Islam and the Malay identity, stating: “<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Malaysia_2007">Malay means a person who professes the religion of Islam</a>, habitually speaks the Malay language, conforms to Malay custom.” </p>
<p>For Malays and converts, leaving Islam officially is not an option – both <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/02/27/sarawak-shariah-court-can-hear-apostasy-cases-rules-apex-court/">civil courts</a> and <a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/07/24/judicial-review-needed-as-shariah-court-dismissal-of-womans-apostasy-bid-irrational-appellate-court-told/81473">sharia courts</a> have rejected that in various cases.</p>
<p>The strong connection between <a href="https://fulcrum.sg/islamisation-in-malaysia-beyond-umno-and-pas/">religion and Malay nationalism</a> has helped Islamic authorities, such as <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/08/27/sis-fails-to-quash-selangor-fatwa/">sharia courts</a> and <a href="https://southeastasiaglobe.com/moral-policing-a-rise-in-state-religious-enforcement-is-shaking-multicultural-malaysia/">sharia police</a>, expand their influence. <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/the-rise-and-rise-of-malaysias-nationalist-right-wing/">Increasing Islamization</a> of Malaysian government, however, is <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-s-pas-has-tough-task-to-woo-non-muslim-voters-analysts-say">a worry for non-Muslim minorities</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Muslim minorities are worried about their rights in several non-Muslim countries ruled by populist nationalists.</p>
<p>According to democracy watchdog Freedom House, in India, Modi’s government has pursued <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/india/freedom-world/2023">discriminatory policies against the Muslim minority</a> of about <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/india-muslims-marginalized-population-bjp-modi">200 million people</a>. These policies have included <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/02/india-authorities-must-immediately-stop-unjust-targeted-demolition-of-muslim-properties/">the destruction</a> of <a href="https://scroll.in/bulletins/340/introducing-the-smart-shopper-get-deals-on-150000-brands-and-support-independent-journalism">Muslim properties</a> to the extent that bulldozers became “<a href="https://time.com/6303571/how-bulldozers-became-a-symbol-of-anti-muslim-sentiment-in-india/">Hindu-nationalist</a>” and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/nyregion/bulldozer-indian-parade-new-jersey.html">“anti-Muslim” symbols in India</a>.</p>
<p>In the United States, Trump’s anti-immigrant policies included the so-called “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org.uk/licence-discriminate-trumps-muslim-refugee-ban">Muslim ban</a>” – <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/immigrants-rights/the-enduring-harms-of-trumps-muslim-ban">an executive order</a> that barred nationals of certain Muslim-majority countries from entering the United States. While campaigning for the upcoming 2024 elections, Trump <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-bring-back-travel-ban-muslim-countries/">vowed to bring back the ban in an expanded manner</a>.</p>
<p>As the experience of many countries around the world shows, the trend of advancing a religious-nationalist agenda restricts minority voices. This trend constitutes a major challenge to the ideals of democracy and equality of citizens worldwide.</p>
<p>These concerns are also personal for me: As a Muslim American, I want to both keep enjoying equal citizenship in the United States and give talks about Islam in Muslim-majority countries without being harassed by the police.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221936/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ahmet T. Kuru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Religion and nationalism were once ideologies at odds. Now, they are increasingly bedfellows, with populism often the glue.Ahmet T. Kuru, Professor of Political Science, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244882024-02-28T14:24:04Z2024-02-28T14:24:04ZThe word ‘populism’ is a gift to the far right – four reasons why we should stop using it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578095/original/file-20240226-32-7wbj6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C53%2C5946%2C3898&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">microstock3D/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>From the storming of the US Capitol on the January 6 2021, to the similar uprising in Brazil in 2023, far-right politicians are infringing on democratic ideals across the world. If we are serious about meeting the challenge they pose, we must stop treating them as legitimate, democratic actors and instead see them as the threat they really are.</p>
<p>A very big part of this effort is also quite a simple step. We must stop referring to far-right politics as “populist”. </p>
<p>In recent years, serious research on populism has reached somewhat of a consensus which makes it clear that it is secondary, at best, in defining any kind of politics. The <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/02633957211007053">two main schools of thought</a> broadly disagree on whether populism is a thin ideology which involves a moralistic element (by pitting a “pure” people against “corrupt” elite) or whether it is simply a discourse that constructs a people as being against an elite, without any further specificity attached to those two groups.</p>
<p>Crucially, though, both agree that the populist element of any given movement comes second to politics and ideology. Parties of the left and right may both use populist rhetoric, but this tells us little about how they actually govern. </p>
<p>But populism has nevertheless become a buzzword. Countless academics have jumped on the bandwagon in search of funding and citations, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/whats-in-a-buzzword-a-systematic-review-of-the-state-of-populism-research-in-political-science/D9CD5E7E13DFA30FD05D41F32E6C122B">often failing to do due diligence to the literature on the topic</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Number of articles containing the words ‘populist’, ‘populism’ or ‘populists’ on Web of Science</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing that the number of academic papers containing the word 'populism' has increased dramarically since 2017." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578097/original/file-20240226-32-sofnsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A surge in academic papers referring to populism.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aurelien Mondon/Alex Yates</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Beyond poor academic practice, the careless use of the word has also had a deleterious impact on wider public discourse. These four consequences should hopefully convince you to stop using the word “populist” to describe someone who is actually just a rightwing extremist.</p>
<h2>1. It masks the threat posed by the far right</h2>
<p>It should not come as a surprise that many far-right politicians, from France’s Jean-Marie Le Pen, to Italy’s <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41269-023-00327-1">Matteo Salvini</a>, have embraced the term “populism”. Even when it is used by their opponents as an insult, far-right politicians prefer the term to more accurate, but also more stigmatising terms, such as “extremist” or “racist”.</p>
<p>This could be witnessed, for example, in the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0263395720955036">Guardian’s 2019 six-month-long series on “the new populism”</a>. More often than not, the word populism was used in this series to describe far more sinister politics than the simple opposition between the elite and the people. Political personalities such as Steve Bannon are far better described as far or extreme right. These terms are not only more precise, but make the threat they pose far clearer than the murky “populism”.</p>
<h2>2. It exaggerates the strength of the far right</h2>
<p>When we use the term “populist”, we often create a semantic link between the word and “the people”. So when we allow the far right to be described as populist, we are incorrectly implying that they are tapping into what the people want or that they speak for the “silent majority” – something Nigel Farage and others love to claim.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578295/original/file-20240227-16-jdy3wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578295/original/file-20240227-16-jdy3wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578295/original/file-20240227-16-jdy3wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578295/original/file-20240227-16-jdy3wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578295/original/file-20240227-16-jdy3wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578295/original/file-20240227-16-jdy3wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578295/original/file-20240227-16-jdy3wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Far-right parties and politicians are mounting election campaigns all over the world in 2024. Join us in London at 6pm on March 6 for a salon style discussion with experts on how seriously we should take the threat, what these parties mean for our democracies – and what action we can take. Register for your place at this <a href="https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/social-science-perspectives-on-the-far-right-tickets-838612631957?aff=theconversation"><strong>free public session here</strong></a>. There will be food, drinks and, best of all, the opportunity to connect with interesting people.</em></p>
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<p>The myth is further entrenched by the perception that the rise of “populism” is the result of choices made by people at the bottom of the socio-economic ladder – whether they are defined as the “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1070289X.2018.1552440?journalCode=gide20">white working class</a>”, the “<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00380261231186021">left behind</a>” or the “losers of globalisation”. This ignores analysis which shows that much of the support for reactionary politics <a href="https://www.race.ed.ac.uk/whiteness-populism-and-the-racialisation-of-the-working-class-in-the-united-kingdom-and-the-united-states/">comes predominantly from affluent groups</a>.</p>
<p>Being allowed to claim to speak on behalf of the voiceless is particularly useful at a time of widespread distrust in mainstream politics, so we shouldn’t be surprised that far-right politicians like to be called populists. It allows them to falsely posit themselves as the alternative to the status quo.</p>
<h2>3. It legitimises far-right politics</h2>
<p>By being erroneously tied to “the people” via the word “populism”, far-right demands are mistaken for democratic demands. It is therefore now common to see mainstream parties absorbing the politics of the far right on the flawed assumption that these ideas are “what the people want”.</p>
<p>The rights of minoritised communities such as migrants, asylum seekers, racialised people, LGBTQ+ communities, women and/or disabled people have all been under various levels of threat by mainstream elite actors, whether through policy, political campaigning or news coverage. Often, the people threatening these rights benefit from the pretence that they are simply responding to public opinion. Supposedly <a href="https://www.identitiesjournal.com/blog-collection/rethinking-nativism-the-racist-discourse-of-rishi-sunak-and-giorgia-meloni-and-the-increasingly-blurred-lines-between-the-mainstream-and-the-far-right">“centre-right”</a> governments are, therefore, given carte blanche to adopt draconian immigration policies. After all, it is in the name of “the people”.</p>
<h2>4. It blocks democratic progress by distracting us</h2>
<p>Populist hype is generally accompanied by a rise of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/14/anti-populism-politics-why-champions-of-civility-keep-losing">anti-populist discourse</a>, which portrays “populism” as an existential threat to liberal democracy. Thinly concealed behind this pejorative use of the term “populism” is at best a distrust, if not outright antipathy, towards “the people”. </p>
<p>By blaming “the people” for the problems in our democracies, elites are absolved from having to interrogate their own role in facilitating the crisis. They can also use the very real threat posed by the far right to justify the need to support the status quo by warning “we are bad – but they are worse”.</p>
<h2>What is to be done?</h2>
<p>Reducing the far right to a “populist” threat allows the mainstream off the hook. When combating the far right, we must be honest about the decisions that have led us to this reactionary moment. If the mainstream does not take responsibility, it has no chance of defeating the monster that it has helped to create. This applies particularly to those who have a privileged access to shaping public discourse such as the media, politicians and academics to a lesser extent.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-to-the-mainstream-to-explain-the-rise-of-the-far-right-218536">Look to the mainstream to explain the rise of the far right</a>
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<p>The first step on this journey is using terms correctly. Calling the far right “populist” keeps us in our inertia. To activate the appropriate sense of urgency needed to defeat these trends, we must be honest about the kind of politics that we see in front of us. If the far right proudly wears the badge of “populism”, we must ask how it helps them. They know it grants them legitimacy. Why, then, should we play into the hands of extremists whose loathing of democracy has been repeatedly demonstrated?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Yates receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council South West Doctoral Training Partnership. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aurelien Mondon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Extremists benefit when we use euphemisms that confer on them an air of legitimacy.Aurelien Mondon, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of BathAlex Yates, Postgraduate Researcher in Politics, Languages & International Studies, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234982024-02-20T16:01:57Z2024-02-20T16:01:57ZWhy Bolsonaro failed to overthrow democracy – and why a threat remains<p>President Jair Bolsonaro summoned his ministers and staff to a meeting at his official residence on July 5, 2022. They discussed at length ways to prevent a defeat in the upcoming October elections. Everyone in the room seemed to agree that democracy should not stand in their way.</p>
<p>When in office, the former president spoke several times against the integrity of the 2022 elections, ripping off Donald Trump’s infamous <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/13/business/stop-the-steal-disinformation-campaign-invs/index.html">#StopTheSteal campaign</a>. To the Bolsonaro administration, elections had always been a nuisance, but no one knew how far they would go to remain in office.</p>
<p>Last week, footage of the meeting was disclosed as part of a court order issued by Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes. The Federal Police arrested three of Bolsonaro’s closest aides and carried out search warrants against former ministers and high-ranking military officers. </p>
<p>They are being investigated for allegedly hatching a military coup as a response to Lula da Silva’s victory in the vote. Amid searches, the police found a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/8/brazil-police-seize-bolsonaros-passport-amid-coup-probe">draft decree</a> through which Bolsonaro would institute a state of siege in the country, hand over power to the generals, and put Justice Moraes behind bars.</p>
<p>Bolsonarism hates <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html">Moraes</a> even more so than it hates Lula. After all, several decisions made by Brazil’s maverick justice have been key to curbing extremism and preserving democracy. </p>
<h2>Holding on, no matter what</h2>
<p>The rise and fall of Bolsonaro has made it clear that the far right is as much about ideology as it is about authoritarianism. The former Brazilian president and his associates would not just go to great lengths to fight culture wars and discredit enemies; investigations have shown that they would do whatever it took to hold on to power.</p>
<p>Why, then, did Bolsonaro fail to overthrow democracy? Incompetence and self-deception have surely played a role, but there are more layers to Brazil’s democratic survival. One of them is that the Supreme Court seemed to be always one step ahead of Bolsonaro. </p>
<p>Since the president’s supporters began flooding the streets during the COVID-19 pandemic to demand a military intervention, the court ordered no less than <a href="https://iepecdg.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/o-stf-e-a-defesa-da-democracia-no-brasil_230702_174751.pdf">eight probes against Bolsonaro and his allies</a> both inside and outside the government. Judicial pressure has greatly increased the costs of spreading mass disinformation and openly attacking institutions.</p>
<p>Another reason was international mobilization in defense of Brazilian democracy. Bolsonaro’s desire to play by Donald Trump’s radical playbook was a red flag to many foreign activists, journalists, and politicians. As it became clear that Bolsonarism was, in many ways, a tropical version of Trumpism, Brazil was turned into a global ideological battleground between progressives and reactionaries. </p>
<p>The far right, <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/163301/steve-bannon-brazil-maga-battleground-bolsonaro">spearheaded by Steve Bannon</a>, used Brazil as a laboratory of extremist ideas, especially while Trump was still president. Democratic advocates, in turn, closed ranks with their Brazilian counterparts to resist Bolsonaro’s assault on human rights, public health, and the environment. With Biden in the White House, the US also helped constrain the Bolsonaro administration through diplomatic channels.</p>
<p>Lula’s electoral triumph in 2022 was largely seen as a victory for democrats. Yet, Brazil’s political institutions cannot be taken for granted. Perhaps the most alarming message of the latest Supreme Court probes is that military officials have been involved in undermining democracy every step of the way. </p>
<p>Rather than repudiating popular calls for a coup, the military has at times stimulated anti-democratic behavior to serve its own vanity – and run counter to the law. Thousands of Bolsonaro supporters had camped in front of the military headquarters, with the complicity of the armed forces, providing the perfect breeding ground for the January 8, 2023 coup attempt.</p>
<h2>Testing the limits of democracy</h2>
<p>In fact, the Brazilian version of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots is a cautionary tale of how a coup attempt may take place even after the autocrat steps down. While Trump, who was still in office, stirred a mob to invade Congress and prevent the session that would certify the 2020 election results, chaos spread by pro-Bolsonaro hordes took place one week after Lula had been sworn in. Even under Lula’s authority, the military did nothing to stop the destruction in Brasilia.</p>
<p>One year on, some members of the military still seem to be testing the limits of democracy. A few days ago, following the arrest of some active and retired officials in the federal police operation, former Bolsonaro vice-president and now Senator Hamilton Mourão went as far as to <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/02/08/bolsonaro-police-vp-military-revolt/">call on the military to stand up against the Supreme Court’s</a> “arbitrary and persecutory” ruling.</p>
<p>Mourão, a retired general turned politician, is not alone in his disgust at the rule of law. According to a national poll that ran the day after the February 8 probe, the country remains very much divided regarding Bolsonaro: 36.8% of respondents believe the former president did not attempt to stage a coup, 42.2% consider that he is being unfairly persecuted and 47.3% think Brazilians live under a “<a href="https://congressoemfoco.uol.com.br/area/pais/bolsonaro-tentou-golpe-sera-preso-pesquisa-mostra-opiniao-de-brasileiros/">judicial dictatorship</a>”. </p>
<p>This is all too symptomatic of a country that has yet to exorcise the demons of its dictatorial past and move beyond its deeply polarised present. Judges and politicians who are committed to democratic values must work together to fight and punish authoritarian populism in all its forms. </p>
<p>However, as long as Bolsonaro remains a central figure in Brazilian politics, this scenario is unlikely to change – and it may even get worse if Trump is elected again in the US. Although Bolsonaro is currently ineligible to stand for office, a political comeback is not unimaginable should democratic institutions fail to do their job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guilherme Casarões não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.</span></em></p>Federal Police arrested some of Bolsonaro’s closest aides and carried out search warrants against former ministers and high-ranked military officers. The allegation: plotting a coup.Guilherme Casarões, Professor of Political Science, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV/EAESP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229592024-02-13T13:21:38Z2024-02-13T13:21:38ZIn the face of severe challenges, democracy is under stress – but still supported – across Latin America and the Caribbean<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575051/original/file-20240212-22-f6zizy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C179%2C5700%2C3615&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters in El Salvador declare 'Yes to democracy. No to authoritarianism' during a demonstration on Jan. 14, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/women-walk-holding-up-a-sign-with-the-legend-yes-to-news-photo/1925903965?adppopup=true">PHOTOGRAFIA/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Threats to economic and physical security have become persistent and pervasive across Latin America and the Caribbean – and that is affecting the way people view the state of democracy in the region.</p>
<p>Those are among the findings of the latest <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/about-americasbarometer.php">AmericasBarometer</a>, a study of the experiences and attitudes of people across the Western Hemisphere that we conduct every two years along with other members of Vanderbilt University’s <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">LAPOP Lab</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">2023 round of AmericasBarometer</a>, which includes nationally representative surveys of 39,074 individuals across 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, reveals widespread pessimism and adversity, decreased satisfaction with the status quo, and yet also resilience in popular support for democracy.</p>
<h2>Elevated economic and physical insecurity</h2>
<p>Across the region, just shy of two-thirds of adults (64%) think the national economic situation in their country has worsened. Remarkably, 32% report that they have run out of food in the last three months, an indicator of food insecurity that tracks with <a href="https://www.paho.org/en/news/9-11-2023-new-report-432-million-people-suffer-hunger-latin-america-and-caribbean-and-region">estimates reported by the Pan-American Health Organization</a>.</p>
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<p>Two in five people feel unsafe in their neighborhoods, and nearly one-quarter – 22% – report having been the victim of a crime in the past 12 months. Homicide rates in the region <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-a-rise-in-latin-americas-violent-crime-a-deadly-flow-of-illegal-guns/">have also been rising</a>.</p>
<p>In brief, despite variation among different countries, the average resident of the region has been facing elevated economic and physical security challenges for over a decade, our surveys have found.</p>
<p>The factors generating and sustaining this reality are complex.</p>
<p>In the mid-2010s, a global economic <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres15_e/pr752_e.htm">commodity boom ended</a>, and the region’s economic recovery has been thwarted by <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/latin-america-economic-growth/">structural issues</a>, including <a href="https://www.undp.org/latin-america/publications/trapped-inequality-and-economic-growth-latin-america-and-caribbean">low productivity and high income inequality</a>. Economic recovery has been further hampered by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-corruption-scandal-started-in-brazil-now-its-wreaking-havoc-in-peru/2018/01/23/0f9bc4ca-fad2-11e7-9b5d-bbf0da31214d_story.html">major corruption scandals</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2023/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere-october-2023">crime and violence</a>, and <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/effects-covid-19-latin-americas-economy">the COVID-19 pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>The implications of a sustained economic slump are stark. In nearly every Latin American and Caribbean country, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">food insecurity has increased in the past decade</a>.</p>
<p>The uptick in crime and insecurity is similarly driven by a range of factors, including <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/GIVAS_Final_Report.pdf">economic crises</a> and the growth of <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-a-rise-in-latin-americas-violent-crime-a-deadly-flow-of-illegal-guns/">well-armed transnational criminal syndicates</a>. In Ecuador, as one extreme example shows, a shocking <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">36% of adults report having been the victim</a> of at least one crime in the past year, an 11-percentage-point increase from just two years ago.</p>
<h2>Disillusionment is a challenge to democracy</h2>
<p>These problems could spell trouble for democracy in the region.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-can-latin-america-halt-its-democratic-backsliding-and-how-can-the-us-help/">experts have predicted</a> that financial stress and food insecurity could contribute to political unrest in the region in the coming years. The threat of organized crime and gang violence may also <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/organized-crime-threat-latin-american-democracies">fuel a desire for authoritarian leadership</a>. </p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">democracy appears to be on the defensive</a>. Within the Latin America and the Caribbean, countries such as Brazil, El Salvador, Haiti and Nicaragua have registered <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">recent turns toward authoritarianism</a>.</p>
<p>Our results show that disillusionment with the democratic status quo is strikingly high in the region, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">with only 40% thinking democracy is working</a>. This low level of satisfaction has appeared in our surveys for the past 10 years.</p>
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<p>Although the root causes are debated, disillusionment with the status quo <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/opinion/international-world/democracy-latin-america.html">fuels support for populist leaders</a> with autocratic tendencies. El Salvador stands as an example of how disillusionment can undermine democracy. President Nayib Bukele was reelected on Feb. 4, 2024, with what appears to be over <a href="https://apnews.com/article/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-president-reelection-ef04e20d901908099f4f787b841aca89">80% of the vote</a> while overtly flaunting democratic norms.</p>
<p>During his first term, Bukele tackled high levels of gang violence with policies that <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/latin-america-erupts-millennial-authoritarianism-in-el-salvador/">undermined checks and balances and civil liberties</a>. He cheekily <a href="https://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/presidente-bukele-dice-que-es-el-dictador-mas-cool-del-mundo-619795">referred to himself on social media as a “dictator”</a>, while his running mate spoke of their <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/world/americas/el-salvador-bukele-election.html">program to eliminate democracy</a>.</p>
<p>There is no denying that Bukele’s strongman approach has delivered results: Our survey finds that 84% of Salvadorans feel secure in their neighborhood, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/raw-data.php">compared with just 54% in 2018</a>, the year before Bukele was elected. Food insecurity remains a challenge, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">with 28%</a> reporting they have experienced running out of food; yet that statistic is slightly lower in 2023 than it was in 2012, in contrast to the upward trend in nearly all other countries.</p>
<h2>Democracy retains popular support</h2>
<p>Despite general gloom about how well democracy is performing, there is reason for optimism: Support for democratic governance has largely held steady over the last decade of our survey.</p>
<p>Across the region, on average, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">58% say that they believe democracy is the best form of government</a>. This is approximately the same percentage we have recorded since 2016. In all but three countries – Guatemala, Honduras and Suriname – majorities say they prefer democracy.</p>
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<p>Although the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-can-latin-america-halt-its-democratic-backsliding-and-how-can-the-us-help/">possibility of democratic backsliding looms</a>, most countries in the region have yet to undergo significant overhauls to their political or economic systems. And as former U.S. ambassador to Peru, Colombia and Brazil <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/inflection-point-challenges-facing-latin-america-and-us-policy-region">P. Michael McKinley noted</a> in a recent article, a slate of radical proposals by new leaders in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico proved unpopular and were rejected by voters, courts and legislatures. In these cases, democratic institutions are doing their job.</p>
<p>Democratic governance also delivers something that strongman populist governments do not: widespread freedom of speech.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2021/2021_LAPOP_AmericasBarometer_2021_Pulse_of_Democracy.pdf">2021 AmericasBarometer regional report</a> highlighted <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-for-democracy-is-waning-across-the-americas-174992">the value the public places on freedom of speech</a>. Vast majorities say they would not trade away freedom of speech for material well-being.</p>
<p>In 2023, we see that in countries with strongman populist leaders, those who disapprove of the president report strikingly high levels of concern about freedom of speech. In El Salvador, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">89% of government critics say they have too little freedom</a> to express their political views without fear, up from 70% in 2016.</p>
<p>In the face of significant challenges, Latin America and the Caribbean is at a crossroads between the allure of strongman populist leadership and a commitment to democratic institutions and processes. For now, at least, an enduring belief in democracy may facilitate <a href="https://apnews.com/article/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-president-reelection-ef04e20d901908099f4f787b841aca89">efforts by leaders in</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/us/politics/biden-democracy-threat.html">outside the region</a> to champion and strengthen democratic governance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noam Lupu co-directs the AmericasBarometer, which has been supported by grants from USAID, the US National Science Foundation, and the Inter-American Development Bank. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or any other funding agency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J. Zechmeister co-directs the AmericasBarometer, which has been supported by grants from USAID, the US National Science Foundation, and the Inter-American Development Bank. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or any other funding agency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Plutowski is a staff member at LAPOP Lab, the lab responsible for the AmericasBarometer, which has been supported by grants from USAID, the US National Science Foundation, and the Inter-American Development Bank. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or any other funding agency.</span></em></p>A survey of people across 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean found widespread concern over the economy and crime.Noam Lupu, Associate Professor of Political Science and Associate Director of LAPOP Lab, Vanderbilt UniversityElizabeth J. Zechmeister, Cornelius Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science and Director of LAPOP, Vanderbilt UniversityLuke Plutowski, Senior Statistician and Research Lead, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226372024-02-05T16:27:32Z2024-02-05T16:27:32ZThe UK’s culture war is dying – but the next prime minister will have to stand up to plenty of populists overseas<p>British voters might have tired of the populist experiment that has strangled politics during the past few years, but, if he wins the next election to become UK prime minister, Keir Starmer will be be tested by a fresh wave of culture war distractions internationally.</p>
<p>Elections in Europe and the US in 2024 seem set to be dominated by divisive, self-styled anti-establishment candidates. And that has worrying implications not only for the UK, but also for the west’s shared interests in an increasingly unstable world.</p>
<p>Populism is experiencing a long drawn-out death in the UK. The country has lived with it since the Brexit referendum in 2016. It reached its political peak with the disastrous premiership of Boris Johnson, who rode roughshod over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/q-a-supreme-court-rules-boris-johnsons-prorogation-of-uk-parliament-was-unlawful-so-what-happens-now-124119">constitution</a>, and its economic nadir when Liz Truss and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng <a href="https://theconversation.com/liz-truss-resigns-as-prime-minister-the-five-causes-of-her-downfall-explained-192979">crashed the economy</a> so spectacularly.</p>
<p>For a time, it looked like Rishi Sunak would present himself as the leader who would do the right thing, run things properly, clean up the mess left by his predecessors. But as his electoral fortunes continued to wane, Sunak has reverted to a sort of Johnson-lite culture war approach to politics, unconvincing but just as divisive. </p>
<p>Nailing his colours to the mast of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/suella-braverman-warns-of-unmanageable-numbers-of-asylum-seekers-the-data-shows-we-hardly-take-any-214014">Rwanda policy</a> is a case in point. Practically nobody thinks it is a workable policy (including <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-question-rwanda-asylum-plan-bbc/">Sunak himself</a> when chancellor). </p>
<p>The idea to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda notably emerged in the dying days of Johnson’s tenure in Number 10 when <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/07/operation-save-big-dog-ramps-up-the-day-after-the-boris-music-died">“Operation Save Big Dog”</a> spewed up a series of desperate, headline-grabbing proposals designed to shore up support for the ailing PM.</p>
<p>Populism limps on, but the general election looks set to deliver the death blow that will put it out of its misery. The task for Starmer, then, seems deceptively simple. His party is commanding a substantial lead in the opinion polls simply by being a credible alternative to a government widely believed to have failed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c7b4fa91-3601-4b82-b766-319af3c261a5">Poll after poll</a> shows the Conservatives terminally lagging the opposition – with some indicating near wipeout for the governing party. And if Starmer wins office, he will have the opportunity to deliver that final blow to an era of populism that has become so tiresome.</p>
<h2>Greeting the neighbours</h2>
<p>But just as Britain seems willing to rejoin the grown ups and ready to regain its reputation as a sensible country which respects the rule of law and its international obligations, many of its allies overseas are ramping up their flirtations with populism. </p>
<p>Were he to win the keys to Downing Street, this would be a major strategic challenge for Starmer’s new government. And it is a challenge made all the more acute by the increasing volatility in the world, whether that be in the shape of Russia, China or the Middle East and the threats they pose to security and the economy.</p>
<p>With Brexit estimated to be costing the British economy <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/brexit-is-costing-the-uk-100-billion-a-year-in-lost-output?leadSource=uverify%20wall">£100 billion a year in lost output</a>, now would be a good time to reestablish constructive cooperation with the EU, working closer together for mutual economic and social benefit.</p>
<p>But so much for the hope London could normalise its relations with Brussels for the first time in a decade when one looks at the buildup to the European parliamentary elections. Far right, anti-European and populist parties across a host of member states are widely expected to <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/">win significant support</a>, shifting the balance in the parliament and potentially the make-up of the European Commission.</p>
<p>In the nations of Europe there are nine parliamentary elections this year and populists are gaining ground across the continent. Austria and Portugal are likely to see a surge in right-wing support. Italy and the Netherlands have already seen their own. </p>
<p>Even those not holding elections in 2024, such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/01/farmers-hurl-eggs-at-european-parliament-as-leaders-meet-for-summit">France</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/14221be9-4daf-41ca-98c2-5459799499fd">Germany</a>, are enduring internal challenge. And then there is the US.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-to-the-mainstream-to-explain-the-rise-of-the-far-right-218536">Look to the mainstream to explain the rise of the far right</a>
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<p>There now seems very little standing in the way of Donald Trump securing the Republican nomination for November’s presidential election. There is still a long way to go before we see him back in the White House, but what seemed a laughable prospect not too long ago, now appears a realistic prospect. </p>
<p>And this time, Trump has scores to settle. He is no supporter of Nato, no fan of Ukraine and no sentimentalist about Europe. His instincts are isolationist, and his election would be destabilising to our continent.</p>
<p>These are the unstable circumstances that could surround the appointment of Starmer to the premiership. Having been seen as a clownish political basket case in recent years, no sooner has Britain thrown off the shackles of populism than it could be called upon to show lone leadership in the world. Starmer will need to defend Nato and stand up for Ukraine against political divisiveness. Let’s hope Starmer is up to the challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222637/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Barber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just as the UK looks set to return to grown up politics, everyone else is installing radicals.Stephen Barber, Professor of Global Affairs, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227302024-02-04T16:23:16Z2024-02-04T16:23:16ZHage Geingob: Namibian president who played a modernising role<p>Hage Gottfried Geingob <a href="https://www.namibian-studies.com/index.php/JNS/article/view/113/113">served as the third president of Namibia</a> from 2015 until his death on February 4 2024. He was Namibia’s first prime minister from 1990 to 2002, and served as prime minister again from 2012 to 2015.</p>
<p>Geingob was born on <a href="https://www.parliament.na/dt_team/geingob-hage/">3 August 1941</a>. He joined the ranks of the national liberation movement South West African People’s Organisation (<a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-west-africa-peoples-organisation-swapo">Swapo</a> during its formation in 1960.</p>
<p>As the official statement <a href="https://twitter.com/NamPresidency/status/1753963884828823682">declared</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Namibian nation has lost a distinguished servant of the people, a
liberation struggle icon, the chief architect of our constitution and the pillar of the Namibian house.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As Swapo’s candidate he was <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hage-Geingob">elected</a> as Namibia’s president for 2015 to 2020 in November 2014. In 2017 he replaced Hifikepunye Pohamba as party president. As head of state with <a href="https://theconversation.com/namibia-badly-needs-refurbishment-after-32-years-under-the-ruling-party-179205">far reaching executive powers</a>, he remained in control over party and government since then. </p>
<p>Geingob’s political career differed from that of his predecessors Sam Nujoma and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hifikepunye-Pohamba">Hifikepunye Pohamba</a>. <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/200904240652.html">Nujoma</a>, the founding president of Swapo, served as president for three terms (1990-2005). Pohamba (2005-2015) was his designated successor. </p>
<p>Geingob personified a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44508019">“changing of the guard”</a>. His advanced formal education left an imprint on the way of governance during his terms in office. A younger generation moved gradually into higher party and state ranks. He successfully modified the heroic struggle narrative and turned it into a more inclusive, patriotic history. </p>
<h2>Geingob’s career</h2>
<p>Geingob had his cultural roots in the Damara community. This made him different from the mainstream Swapo leadership, which is mainly from the Oshiwambo-speaking population. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/namibia-badly-needs-refurbishment-after-32-years-under-the-ruling-party-179205">Namibia badly needs refurbishment after 32 years under the ruling party</a>
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<p>Geingob’s different background counted in his favour among many Namibians when campaigning for presidency. People welcomed a leader with origins in an ethnically defined minority group as a sign of multi-cultural plurality.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.parliament.na/dt_team/geingob-hage/">Studying</a> at the US American Temple University in Philadelphia, the Fordham University (BA) and The New School (MA), both in New York, Geingob was representing Swapo since the mid-1960s at the United Nations. In 1975 he became the head of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/160803">United Nations Institute for Namibia</a> in Lusaka. </p>
<p>He returned to Namibia in mid-1989, leading the Swapo election campaign in the transition to independence under <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40175168">supervision of the United Nations</a>. He played a <a href="https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5fa370c-004f-c92d-0ba3-7b3ca48aab38&groupId=252038">decisive role as chairman of the elected Constituent Assembly</a>. </p>
<p>He was appointed Prime Minister in 1990. </p>
<p>In 2002 he fell into disgrace for not supporting <a href="https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/legacies-of-power">Sam Nujoma’s presidency-for-life ambitions</a>. Instead of accepting his demotion to Minister of Regional and Local Government and Housing, he became executive secretary of the <a href="https://gcacma.org/AboutGCA.htm">Washington-based Global Coalition for Africa</a>. </p>
<p>In 2004 he obtained a PhD at the University of Leeds for a <a href="https://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/21090/">thesis</a> on state formation in Namibia.</p>
<p>He returned the same year to Namibia. Thanks to Pohamba’s reconciliatory approach, he made a remarkable comeback. Minister of Trade and industry from 2008 to 2012, he again became Prime Minister (2012-2015). </p>
<p>His clever politically strategic mind paved the way to be elected as president of the party and state. </p>
<h1>Geingob’s presidency</h1>
<p>In the Presidential and National Assembly elections of <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-12-02-namibias-swapo-win-elections-geingob-voted-as-president/">November 2014</a> Geingob and Swapo scored the best results in the country’s history. While Nujoma was termed the president for stability and Pohamba the president for continuity, Geingob campaigned as <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/EJC-5ae9d1ff3">president for prosperity</a>. </p>
<p>But this made him the president of unfulfilled promises. </p>
<p>Geingob’s rhetoric disclosed a stronger contrast between what was said and what was done than that of his predecessors. He used more <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03056244.2018.1500360">populist</a> rhetoric as his style of governance and leadership, coining the metaphor of the “Namibian House. </p>
<p>As he <a href="https://www.namibiaembassyusa.org/sites/default/files/statements/Inaugural%20Speech%20by%20HE%20Hage%20%20Geingob%201.pdf">declared in his inaugural address</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>All of us must play our part in the success of this beautiful house we call Namibia. We need to renew it from time to time by undergoing renovations and extensions. … Let us stand together in building this new Namibian house in which no Namibian will feel left out.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But over the years many felt left out. The November 2019 parliamentary and presidential election <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2020.1717090">results</a> were the worst for Swapo since independence. A 2020 Afrobarometer survey confirmed <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/articles/trust-political-institutions-decline-namibia-afrobarometer-survey-shows/">a decline of trust</a>.</p>
<p>In all fairness, Geingob entered office at a difficult time. The country faced fiscal constraints and a period of serious droughts, followed by the traumatic impact of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2020.1790776">Covid</a>. Consequently, the socio-economic track record under him was at best mixed. On balance, his governance was characterised by a considerable gap between <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/namibia-2024-promises-or-delivery/">promises and delivery </a>. </p>
<p>Under Geingob a decline of ethics became visible, manifested spectacularly in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FJ1TB0nwHs">corruption scandal</a> in the <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/timely-and-engaging-fishrot/">fishing industry</a>. It became the synonym of state capture. Fighting <a href="https://africa.cgtn.com/namibias-president-geingob-pledges-stronger-fight-against-corruption/">corruption</a> became Geingob’s mantra. But it had little credibility in the eyes of the wider public. </p>
<h1>The moderniser</h1>
<p>Geingob was first married (1967-1992) to a strong-minded African-American woman. Fondly called "Auntie Patty”, Priscilla Geingos was <a href="https://www.namibiansun.com/news/auntie-patty-laid-to-rest-in-windhoek">laid to rest in Windhoek in 2014</a>. </p>
<p>Before entering office, Geingob (divorced for a second time from Loini Kandume in 2008) married the businesswoman Monica Kalondo in 2015. Strong, loyal, and independent-minded, Monica Geingos became an <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/aboutunaids/unaidsambassadors/MonicaGeingos">active and internationally recognised First Lady</a>.</p>
<p>Among Geingob’s most laudable achievements <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2022/06/experts-committee-elimination-discrimination-against-women-congratulate-namibia">is a gender-aware policy</a>. It elevated Namibia into the league of countries with the highest proportion of women in leading political offices.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://namibia.unfpa.org/en/topics/gender-based-violence-3">took a stand against</a> gender-based violence and the country progressed in closing the gender inequality gap.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/namibia-pulls-down-german-colonial-statue-after-protests-who-was-curt-von-francois-195334">Namibia pulls down German colonial statue after protests – who was Curt von François?</a>
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<p>He was also reluctant to give in to <a href="https://www.washingtonblade.com/2023/06/14/landmark-namibia-supreme-court-ruling-sparks-anti-gay-backlash/">homophobia</a> prevalent among parliamentarians. In May 2023 the Supreme Court ruled in favour of <a href="https://www.namibian.com.na/on-same-sex-relationships/">equal treatment</a> of two foreign same sex spouses married to Namibian citizens. While the vast majority of members of the National Assembly pushed through a law amendment seeking <a href="https://www.southernafricalitigationcentre.org/2023/07/20/namibias-proposed-amendment-of-the-marriage-act-an-attack-on-the-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary/">to invalidate the verdict</a>, Geingob did not sign the bill into law. </p>
<h1>Geingob’s legacy</h1>
<p>One of the last official statements by Geingob, on 13 January 2024, testified to his strong views. Upset over Germany’s taking side with Israel at the International Court of Justice, he <a href="https://twitter.com/NamPresidency/status/1746259880871149956">fumed</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The German Government is yet to fully atone for the genocide it committed on Namibian soil. Germany cannot morally express commitment to the United Nations Convention against genocide, including atonement for the genocide in Namibia, whilst supporting the equivalent of a holocaust and genocide in Gaza.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Geingob was ambitious to enter Namibian history as the president who did more to promote the welfare and advancement of citizens. But he struggled to turn that vision into reality in office. Namibia remains among the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/namibia/overview#:%7E:text=Namibia%20ranks%20as%20one%20of,services%20are%20large%20and%20widening">most unequal countries</a> in the world. </p>
<p>As he reiterated in his <a href="https://twitter.com/NamPresidency/status/1741615241614508304">New Year Address 2024</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In order to seize the opportunities that are in line with our ambitions and expectations, we should redouble our efforts to make Namibia a better country. I call on each one of you to work harder for our collective welfare. I call on all of you to hold hands and to ensure that no one feels left out of the Namibian House.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>His legacy as a moderniser will live on despite all the contradictions and unfulfilled promises. </p>
<p>Hamba kahle (Rest in peace).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber is a member of Swapo since 1974. </span></em></p>Hage Geingob’s legacy as a moderniser will live on despite contradictions and unfulfilled promises.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215052024-01-26T10:24:19Z2024-01-26T10:24:19ZThe two faces of Jacob Zuma – former South African president campaigns to unseat the ANC he once led. Who supports him and why?<p>Former South African president Jacob Zuma’s political comeback builds on support from marginalised and angry constituencies within or close to the governing African National Congress (ANC). His vengeful but <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67741527">“loyal” rebellion</a> against the ANC resonates with these political constituencies.</p>
<p>In mid-December 2023, Zuma announced that he would be <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-01-09-umkhonto-wesizwe-what-we-know-about-zumas-new-party/">supporting</a> the newly formed <a href="https://mkparty.org.za/">uMkhonto weSizwe Party</a> (MK Party), rather than the ANC, in the <a href="https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/">upcoming national election</a>. But he would <a href="https://www.enca.com/videos/2024-elections-zuma-ditches-anc-pledges-vote-mk-party">not resign from the ANC</a>. <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/umkhonto-wesizwe-mk">Umkhonto we Sizwe</a> is the name of the ANC’s former guerrilla army. </p>
<p>This latest assault by Zuma on the ANC coincides with the embattled party entering a tough campaigning period for the <a href="https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/">national and provincial elections</a>, expected between May and August 2024. Zuma is using his new platform to strike at his arch-enemy, President Cyril Ramaphosa, who also heads the ANC. </p>
<p>Zuma, president of the ANC from <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/former-leaders-2/">2007 to 2017</a>, and of South Africa from <a href="https://www.gov.za/about-government/contact-directory/jacob-gedleyihlekisa-zuma-mr">2009 to early 2018</a>, rose to power controversially, amid allegations of corruption related to the government’s <a href="https://scientiamilitaria.journals.ac.za/pub/article/view/1037">1998 procurement of arms</a>. This scandal became the hallmark of his reign, followed by the debilitating <a href="https://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">state capture and gross misgovernance</a> scandals. </p>
<p>He has used the <a href="https://definitions.uslegal.com/s/stalingrad-defense/">Stalingrad legal strategy</a> – wearing down a plaintiff by challenging their every move – to evade justice. However, he was convicted on a relatively minor charge in July 2021, for defying a court order to appear at a <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">judicial commission into state capture</a>. His subsequent jailing triggered violent protests in which <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-deadly-july-2021-riots-may-recur-if-theres-no-change-186397">about 350 people died</a>. There are fears that further action against Zuma could spark a resurgence. </p>
<h2>Challenging Ramaphosa</h2>
<p>Zuma has portrayed the MK Party as the authentic ANC, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UEzy1ELNgo">not the one led by Ramaphosa</a>. He has been drawing sizeable crowds to the meetings of the new party, provoking the ANC and <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/politics/anc-take-a-chill-pill-on-their-zuma-headache-for-now-20240114">paralysing its strategists</a>. The ANC faces a difficult choice: suspend or expel Zuma and face a backlash; or tolerate him within the ANC, lest he turns disciplinary action against him into martyrdom.</p>
<p>My academic study of South African politics, and the ANC, over three decades provides some insight into why Zuma continues to command support, despite his ruinous tenure. Under his presidency, the state and its organs were <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48980964">captured and repurposed</a> for his benefit and those around him; state organs were disabled and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.18772/12021026451">ANC factional divisions pushed to unprecedented levels</a>. I suggest the reasons people still support him include public unhappiness with the ANC’s performance in government; Zuma’s cunning casting of himself as their similarly suffering saviour; his exploitation of Zulu cultural identity; the shared loss with his faction of status; and exclusion from the ANC’s patronage system. He feeds on the government’s performance failures.</p>
<h2>State of the ANC</h2>
<p>The ANC bears scars of at least two presidential battles: <a href="https://ebin.pub/dominance-and-decline-the-anc-in-the-time-of-zuma-1868148858-9781868148851.html">Zuma versus Mbeki</a>, and then <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.18772/12021026451">Zuma against Ramaphosa</a>. The fights spawned internal enemies, many of them now Zuma disciples <a href="https://web.facebook.com/p/Areta-African-Radical-Economic-Transformation-Alliance-100090796962653/?_rdc=1&_rdr">stirring up support for the MK Party project</a>.</p>
<p>Zuma’s prime target is the Ramaphosa-led ANC with its <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/yes-sa-thuma-mina">Thuma Mina (“Send Me”) campaign</a>, which promised to rebuild the country from the mess Zuma created or exacerbated, guided, according to the text, by values of integrity, equality, solidarity and shared humanity. Zuma <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/i-wont-campaign-for-anc-in-2024-will-vote-mk--jaco">accuses Ramaphosa</a> of being corrupted by <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-monopoly-capital-good-politics-bad-sociology-worse-economics-77338">“white monopoly capital”</a>, and pins his marginalisation from the ANC on having become the victim of a corrupted judiciary. He complains that Ramaphosa introduced practices that are foreign to the ANC’s character. </p>
<p>At the height of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Zuma-Years-South-Africas-Changing/dp/1770220887">Zuma’s tenure</a> as president of South Africa, <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/jacob-gedleyihlekisa-zuma">2009 to early 2018</a>, he proved himself as the <a href="https://repository.uwc.ac.za/xmlui/handle/10566/491">patriarch of patronage</a>. Tenders were his to dictate. Entire state institutions fell victim. </p>
<p>His attack on the ANC resonates with an activist core that is angry with <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/mpumalanga-anc-says-no-no-no-to-anger-classes-20191204">losing the privileged positions they held</a> before Ramaphosa became the party leader in 2017. Some were felled by the Ramaphosa-led ANC’s <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/politics/2024-01-19-no-orders-yet-to-exclude-corruption-suspects-from-anc-candidate-list/">clampdown on corruption</a>. </p>
<p>Zuma also gets support from former ANC provincial and national leaders who have been at the receiving end of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/ex-anc-chiefs-zuma-and-magashule-team-up-ahead-of-south-africas-elections#:%7E:text=The%20%E2%80%9CMagashule%20Zuma%20United%20Front">ANC disciplinary action</a>. For them, supporting for Zuma is a way to punish the ANC.</p>
<p>Zuma’s <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/politics/zuma-i-am-a-victim-cyril-is-corrupt-global-powers-want-sa-20221022">portrayal of himself as a victim</a> at the hands of Ramaphosa resonates with many who feel they have been wronged by their organisation. </p>
<p>For the “<a href="https://www.gov.za/news/speeches/tenderpreneurship-stuff-crooked-cadres-fighters-04-sep-2014">tenderpreneurs</a>” – business people who feed off government contracts – <a href="https://www.vryeweekblad.com/en/opinions-and-debate/2023-08-18-anc-has-lost-control-of-its-den-of-thieves/">the taps have been dripping</a> rather than spouting contracts as before. They are set to bond with citizens whose livelihoods dissipate as government policies fade and fail.</p>
<p>Zuma’s <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-10-30-three-polls-show-anc-election-support-is-falling-off-a-cliff/">popular standing</a> coincides with the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/zuma-s-popularity-threatens-anc-s-majority-hopes-srf-says">decline in the electoral standing</a> of the ANC. </p>
<h2>State of government</h2>
<p>The ANC of 2024 is weather-worn and has <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-marks-its-112th-year-with-an-eye-on-national-elections-but-its-record-is-patchy-and-future-uncertain-221125">less of a grip on the state’s delivery apparatus</a>. Despite the party’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ramaphosa-scolds-ruling-anc-losing-south-africans-trust-2022-07-29/">claims</a>, there is slim hope for economic growth and jobs that will be sufficient to drive an economic turnaround. </p>
<p>Many have no chance to move beyond a life of social security grants and dependence on the state. </p>
<p>The ANC’s poor performance in government – <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/statistics-south-africa-quarterly-labour-force-survey-quarter-three-2023-14">high unemployment</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-cant-crack-the-inequality-curse-why-and-what-can-be-done-213132">deep inequality</a>, continuously <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/1_Stock/Events_Institutional/2020/womens_charter_2020/docs/19-02-2021/20210212_Womens_Charter_Review_KZN_19th_of_Feb_afternoon_Session_Final.pdf">rising poverty</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-police-are-losing-the-war-on-crime-heres-how-they-need-to-rethink-their-approach-218048">crime</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-revolting-against-inept-local-government-why-it-matters-155483">poor and collapsing services</a>, <a href="https://wandilesihlobo.com/2023/01/14/crumbling-basic-infrastructure-limits-south-africas-agriculture-and-tourism-growth-potential/">collapse of public infrastructure</a> – provides fertile soil for the populist and opportunistic former president to reclaim credentials of the ANC’s former armed wing, scavenge on ANC weaknesses and wreak havoc in the party. </p>
<p>The disgruntled communities supporting Zuma also feature <a href="https://irr.org.za/media/articles-authored-by-the-institute/the-dangerous-rise-of-jacob-zumas-private-army">military veterans</a> and <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/political-parties/zumas-tour-de-resistance-first-religious-leaders-then-on-to-anc-home-ground-20240106">religious organisations</a>, largely in the province of KwaZulu-Natal. Zuma has had well-attended meetings in other provinces too.</p>
<p>Across all strata of society, there is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/30/south-africa-anc-voter-anger-election">anger with how the ANC has been treating citizens</a>. Many citizens now fail to see the promise of order and definitive economic progress in Ramaphosa’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202010/south-african-economic-reconstruction-and-recovery-plan.pdf">plans and visions</a>.</p>
<h2>Zuma’s KwaZulu-Natal trump card</h2>
<p>The KwaZulu-Natal province <a href="https://www.eisa.org/storage/2023/05/2010-journal-of-african-elections-v9n2-african-national-congress-unprecedented-victory-kwazulu-natal-eisa.pdf">helped sustain national ANC support</a> at a time when the ANC had started declining below its 2004 two-thirds-plus national majority. Without this boost, the ANC would have declined faster and earlier. Zuma’s contribution was in bolstering high-level Zulu cultural presence and political influence in the ANC. He helped make the ANC an organisation where this populous group of South Africans felt they had a political home. Their votes followed. </p>
<p>This helped Zuma build a near-untouchable status in the ANC. It helps explain why ANC leaders would <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/mercury/news/anc-asks-zuma-to-join-kkelection-campaign-3cafacb6-cbfa-4f19-8aba-9f6d10506046">go hat in the hand to his Nkandla homestead</a> requesting his help in election campaigning, after the end of his party presidency.</p>
<p>Zuma, in 2024 campaign rallies, <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2024-01-18-jacob-zuma-calls-for-more-power-for-amakhosi-and-takes-a-dig-at-ramaphosa/">promises traditional leaders (amakhosi)</a> the status of sovereign authorities with executive powers. This idea, he well knows, is at odds with the country’s constitutional democracy. Yet it endears him to traditionalists who do not feel at home in a multiparty, competitive democracy. </p>
<h2>Hedging bets</h2>
<p>Zuma’s new model of resistance – voting for an ANC-derivative party against the ANC (while remaining within its ranks) – appeals to many discontented citizens and traditional communities. It arrives at a time when many South Africans, and in particular ANC followers, feel multiparty democracy and its governance have <a href="https://www.corruptionwatch.org.za/democracy-not-so-sweet-any-more-say-south-africans/">not worked for them</a>.</p>
<p>Zuma operates on the belief that he will be the hero of this struggle. If electoral politics does not satisfy the discontented citizens, and anger and rebellion prevail, he has already shown that he is an effective apostle of the alternative track of non-electoral politics. He offers the full repertoire of protest and rebellion associated with the ANC, a former liberation movement, now party, which survives but battles to reconnect with the hearts and minds of citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Booysen is affiliated with the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic reflection, a non-profit think tank. She writes this analysis in her capacity as author, analyst, and Emeritus Professor, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. </span></em></p>Jacob Zuma claims that his new political home, the Umkhonto we Sizwe Party, is the authentic ANC, not the one led by President Cyril Ramaphosa.Susan Booysen, Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219382024-01-25T22:36:01Z2024-01-25T22:36:01ZIs Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei, a far-right leader? The answer is not simple<p>A shockwave has been rippling through Argentina <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/javier-milei-wins-argentina-presidential-elections-runoff/">since Javier Milei came to power in December</a>, prompting demonstrators to take to the streets in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/24/argentina-strike-protest-javier-milei">general strike</a> on Wednesday.</p>
<p>With an ideology described as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/world/americas/argentina-javier-milei-cuts.html">“anarcho-capitalism,”</a> Milei promises major upheaval in a country with a long tradition of state control, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/argentina-presidential-election-1.7033471">which is now in the throes of a deep economic crisis</a>. </p>
<p>While the radical nature of his proposals won over many Argentines, it also alienated many, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentine-powerful-union-calls-january-strike-action-2023-12-28/">leading to calls for the general strike</a>. </p>
<p>Analysts have tried to understand the ideological links between Milei and the various far-right movements that have emerged over the last 20 years, particularly in Europe and the United States. </p>
<p>As a doctoral student in political science at Laval University, my research focuses on authoritarianism, particularly in Argentina. In the following, I explore the relationship between Milei and the far-right movement. </p>
<h2>Be careful about drawing quick conclusions</h2>
<p>Milei <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/12/javier-milei-and-the-populist-wave-in-argentina/">can be described as a populist</a>. The description is apt, even natural, if we consider the many references he makes in his speeches to far-right figures such as <a href="https://twitter.com/JMilei/status/1727501082560205296">Donald Trump</a>, Brazil’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/trump-bolsonaro-javier-milei-argentina-far-right">Jair Bolsonaro</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/santiago-abascal-who-is-spains-far-right-leader-what-does-he-stand-2023-07-17/">Spain’s Santiago Abascal</a>, president of the Vox formation, <a href="https://thediplomatinspain.com/en/2023/11/milei-invites-abascal-to-his-inauguration-as-argentine-president/">whom he invited to his inauguration</a>.</p>
<p>Milei’s calls to fight “the left,” <a href="https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/01/argentinas-milei-berates-western-neo-marxists-at-world-economic-forum/">his criticism of “cultural Marxism,”</a> and his openly anti-system approach all reinforce this identity.</p>
<p>However, this rather simplistic comparison ignores significant differences in Milei’s program, particularly where his economic and migration policies are concerned. Despite similarities, there are significant differences, particularly in the way each movement understands the role of the state and its relationship to society as a whole. </p>
<p>Specifically, I would like to draw attention to a central difference, namely the role of nationalism, and to the innovations Milei has introduced in the context of the global rise of the right.</p>
<h2>Nativist nationalism at the heart of the far right</h2>
<p>In an article summarizing the far-right political parties in Europe, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042814-012441">Matt Golder</a>, professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University, analyzes the scientific literature on them. He finds three elements that are increasingly characteristic of this movement: “nationalism,” “populism,” and “radicalism.”</p>
<p>The nationalism expounded by far-right parties can be described as “nativism.” According to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492037">Cas Mudde</a>, professor of political science at the University of Georgia, “nativism” is understood as “nationalism plus xenophobia.” It is based on the idea of the existence of an imaginary “native” population <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042814-012441">built on cultural or ethnic features</a>, whose homogeneity must be protected from any element that is foreign and external to it. </p>
<p>With its conception of a homogeneous community, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492037">nativism is then added to nationalism, which is articulated as the congruence between state and nation</a>. This contributes the element of xenophobia mentioned by Mudde. In so doing, extreme right-wing movements put forward a radicalized preference for anything that can be defined as belonging to the “national community.”</p>
<p>This version of nationalism is well known, and it is easy to find European and American examples of it: <a href="https://gnet-research.org/2023/01/27/mainstreaming-far-right-conspiracies-eric-zemmours-discourse-as-a-case-study/">Éric Zemmour’s calls against the “Great Replacement,”</a> <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/the-snake-song-lyrics-trump-b2464914.html">Trump’s warnings about the danger of immigration</a>, or the Islamophobia of <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-frauke-petry-of-the-alternative-for-germany-a-1084493.html">the Alternative for Germany party</a>, are some examples. </p>
<p>This nativism on the part of far-right parties is becoming the foundation of their political projects, including their economic policies.</p>
<p>It is on this basis that the contemporary far right is putting forward clear protectionist projects. A large proportion of far-right movements share Euro-scepticism, nationalization and anti-globalization rhetoric. The root of their projects is a belief in a national community, defined either in ethnic or cultural terms, which must be protected from the influence of outside elements. </p>
<h2>Liberalizing the economy, Milei’s priority</h2>
<p>Although the list of promises of Milei’s party may come as a surprise due to their radical nature and breadth, the element of nativism is absent from his rhetoric.</p>
<p>Rather, the plans and platform of his party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), represent a clear opposition to nativism, which is widespread in Argentina and represented by the Peronist movement. Accusations of his alleged anti-immigration ideology are also unfounded, at least so far.</p>
<p>Milei’s program mentions immigration only marginally. This is evident in LLA’s <a href="https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/paginas/pdf/plataformas/2023/PASO/JUJUY%2079%20PARTIDO%20RENOVADOR%20FEDERAL%20-PLATAFORMA%20LA%20LIBERTAD%20AVANZA.pdf">electoral platform</a>, where the subjects of “nation” and immigration are relatively absent. </p>
<p>Argentina has in fact received proportionally <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/servlet/BMTendanceStatPays?langue=fr&codePays=ARG&codeTheme=1&codeStat=SM.POP.NETM">fewer immigrants than most European or North American countries in recent years</a>. The debate over immigration is more about the universality of the health and education services, thanks to which everyone, regardless of their migratory status, <a href="https://sherloc.unodc.org/cld/uploads/res/document/ley-de-migraciones-25871-english_html/Ley_de_Migraciones_25871_English.pdf">can benefit from the public health system (even tourists) and free education</a>. Milei is not exactly opposed to immigration (he has <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfNnAKnHxGo">even expressed support for</a> certain types of state spending associated with it).</p>
<p>On the other hand, liberalization has been, and continues to be the pillar of Milei’s program, which is perfectly embodied in the proposal to eliminate the central bank and introduce free monetary competition. <a href="https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/paginas/pdf/plataformas/2023/PASO/CABA%20501%20LA%20LIBERTAD%20AVANZA%20ADHIERE%20PLATAFORMA%20ON.pdf">His program</a> also includes dollarization, optimizing and reducing the size of the state, opening up to international trade, reforming the labour code, mental health laws and regulations on medical services.</p>
<h2>Wait before judging Milei’s political project</h2>
<p>In other words, in spite of his populist style and the radical nature of his proposals, Milei’s approach makes it difficult to immediately identify him with the European and American far right without further qualification.</p>
<p>This does not necessarily mean that the Milei phenomenon should not be considered part of the extended family of the far right. As <a href="https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c983y398v0do">Cristóbal Rovira, Professor at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile states,</a> not all members of the far-right “family” embrace all its elements. However, it does force us to think twice before making quick and what could be simplistic associations. The fact that Milei has spoken in favour of Trump does not make him, by definition, “Trumpist.”</p>
<p>There are certainly individuals within his political party who are closer to the political projects of Trump or <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/santiago-abascal-who-is-spains-far-right-leader-what-does-he-stand-2023-07-17/">Santiago Abascal</a>. However, Milei’s personal positions largely define what we can expect from his government and the political project he is putting forward.</p>
<p>Although Milei, himself, affirms his ideological kinship with leaders often included in the large family of the contemporary far right, certain elements of his program and the core of his ideology show some distance from this movement. More broadly, in order to understand what is new about a political phenomenon and what this implies, it is important to put it into context.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221938/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Federico Chaves Correa ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Some aspects of Argentine President Javier Milei’s programme resemble the far right, but others do not. Without excluding him from this movement, we should recognize there are differences.Federico Chaves Correa, Doctorant en science politique, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213552024-01-18T16:49:32Z2024-01-18T16:49:32ZThe maths of rightwing populism: easy answers + confidence = reassuring certainty<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570085/original/file-20240118-17-no0zv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=149%2C77%2C3426%2C1820&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Pictrider</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rightwing populists appear to be enjoying a <a href="https://theconversation.com/iowa-was-different-this-time-even-if-the-outcome-was-as-predicted-221094">surge</a> across the <a href="https://theconversation.com/far-right-poised-to-score-big-at-next-european-elections-214702">western world</a>. For those who don’t support these parties, their appeal can be baffling and unsettling. They appear to play on people’s fears and offer somewhat trivial answers to difficult issues.</p>
<p>But the mathematics of human inference and cognition can help us understand what makes this a winning formula.</p>
<p>Because politics largely boils down to communication, the mathematics of communication theory can help us understand why voters are drawn to parties that use simple, loud messaging in their campaigning – as well as how they get away with using highly questionable messaging. Traditionally, this is the theory that enables us to listen to radio broadcasts and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Claude-Shannon#ref666143">make telephone calls</a>. But American mathematician <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norbert_Wiener">Norbert Wiener</a> went so far as to <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/153954.The_Human_Use_of_Human_Beings">argue</a> that social phenomena can only be understood via the theory of communication.</p>
<p>Wiener tried to explain different aspects of society by evoking a concept in science known as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/second-law-of-thermodynamics">second law of thermodynamics</a>. In essence, this law says that over time, order will turn into disorder, or, in the present context, reliable information will be overwhelmed by confusion, uncertainties and noise. In mathematics, the degree of disorder is often measured by a quantity called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/entropy-physics">entropy</a>, so the second law can be rephrased by saying that over time, and on average, entropy will increase.</p>
<p>One of Wiener’s arguments is that as technologies for communication advance, people will circulate more and more inessential “noisy” information (think Twitter, Instagram and so on), which will overshadow facts and important ideas. This is becoming more pronounced with AI-generated disinformation. </p>
<p>The effect of the second law is significant in predicting the future form of society over a period of decades. But <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-43403-4">another aspect</a> of communication theory also comes into play in the more immediate term.</p>
<p>When we analyse information about a topic of interest, we will reach a conclusion that leaves us, on average, with the smallest uncertainty about that topic. In other words, our thought process attempts to minimise entropy. This means, for instance, when two people with opposing views on a topic are presented with an article on that subject, they will often take away different interpretations of the same article, with each confirming the validity of their own initial view. The reason is simple: interpreting the article as questioning one’s opinion will inevitably raise uncertainty.</p>
<p>In psychology, this effect is known as <a href="https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias">confirmation bias</a>. It is often interpreted as an irrational or illogical trait of our behaviour, but we now understand the science behind it by borrowing concepts from communication theory. I call this a “<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.797904/full">tenacious Bayesian</a>” behaviour because it follows from the <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bayes-theorem/">Bayes theorem</a> of probability theory, which tells us how we should update our perspectives of the world as we digest noisy or uncertain information.</p>
<p>A corollary of this is that if someone has a strong belief in one scenario which happens to represent a false reality, then even if factual information is in circulation, it will take a long time for that person to change their belief. This is because a conversion from one certainty to another typically (but not always) requires a path that traverses uncertainties we instinctively try to avoid.</p>
<h2>Polarised society</h2>
<p>When the tenacious Bayesian effect is combined with Wiener’s second law, we can understand how society becomes polarised. The second law says there will be a lot of diverging information and noise around us, creating confusion and uncertainty. We are drawn to information that offers greater certainty, even if it is flawed. </p>
<p>For a binary issue, the greatest uncertainty happens when the two alternatives seem equally likely – and are therefore difficult to choose between. But for an individual person who believes in one of the two alternatives, the path of least uncertainty is to hold steady on that belief. So in a world in which any information can easily be disseminated far and wide but in which people are also immovable, society can easily be polarised.</p>
<h2>Where are the leftwing populists?</h2>
<p>If a society is maximally polarised, then we should find populists surging on both the left and right of the political spectrum. And yet that is not the case at the moment. The right is more dominant. The reason for this is, in part, that the left is not well-positioned to offer certainty. Why? Historically, socialism has rarely been implemented in running a country – not even the Soviet Union or China managed to implement it. </p>
<p>At least for now, the left (or centrists, for that matter) also seem a lot more cautious about knowingly offering unrealistic answers to complex problems. In contrast, the right offers (often false) certainty with confidence. It is not difficult to see that in a noisy environment, the loudest are heard the most. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-have-authoritarianism-and-libertarianism-merged-a-political-psychologist-on-the-vulnerability-of-the-modern-self-218949">Why have authoritarianism and libertarianism merged? A political psychologist on 'the vulnerability of the modern self'</a>
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<p>Today’s politics plays out against a backdrop of uncertainties that include wars in Ukraine and Gaza with little prospect of exit strategies in sight; the continued cost of living crisis; energy, food and water insecurity; migration; and so on. Above all, the impact of the climate crisis.</p>
<p>The answer to this uncertainty, according to rightwing populists, is to blame everything on outsiders. Remove migrants and all problems will be solved – and all uncertainties eradicated. True or false, the message is simple and clear. </p>
<p>In conveying this message, it is important to instil in the public an exaggerated fear of the impact of migration, so their message will give people a false sense of certainty. What if there are no outsiders? Then create one. Use the culture war to label the “experts” (judges, scholars, etc.) as the enemy of the people.</p>
<p>For populists to thrive, society needs to be divided so that people can feel certain about where they belong – and so that those on the opposing side of the argument can be ignored. </p>
<p>The problem, of course, is that there are rarely simple solutions to complex issues. Indeed, a political party campaigning for a tough migration policy but weak climate measures is arguably enabling mass migration on a scale unseen in modern history, because climate change will make <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">many parts of the world uninhabitable</a>.</p>
<p>Wiener was already arguing in 1950 that we will pay the price for our actions at a time when it is most inconvenient to do so. Whatever needs to be done to solve complex societal issues, those who wish to implement what they believe are the right measures need to be aware that they have to win an election to do that – and that voters respond to simple and positive messages that will reduce the uncertainties hanging over their thoughts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorje C Brody receives funding from the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EP/X019926/1).</span></em></p>In an uncertain world our natural instinct is to seek out answers that reassure, even when they don’t make sense.Dorje C. Brody, Professor of Mathematics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209422024-01-16T15:55:08Z2024-01-16T15:55:08ZTrump’s Iowa win is just a small part of soaring right-wing populism in 2024<p>The last 12 months have been a mixed bag for right-wing populists. Democracy advocates cheered <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/europe/poland-pis-confidence-vote-tusk-intl/index.html">the defeat of the Law and Justice party in Poland</a> and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s breakthrough victory over his populist adversary in Brazil.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/lula-and-the-world-what-to-expect-from-the-new-brazilian-foreign-policy-202645">Lula and the world: what to expect from the new Brazilian foreign policy</a>
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<p>But populists won big victories in 2023 too — and made comebacks. Donald Trump, despite his numerous indictments and allegations he incited an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, began a second run for president. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/16/politics/trump-iowa-victory-analysis/index.html">He’s just won the Republican Iowa caucuses handily</a>.</p>
<p>In Argentina, Javier Milei defied the experts <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/argentina-presidential-election-far-right-libertarian-javier-milei-wins-after-rival-concedes">and rode to power as an anarcho-capitalist</a>. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, the most <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/dutch-far-right-leader-geert-wilders-victory-a-terrifying-shock-for-europe">extreme politician in Europe</a>, is now a kingmaker. His party came out on top as the largest in the Dutch legislature. </p>
<p>In Germany, the far right has made important <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67751605">electoral breakthroughs</a> as the Alternative for Germany party’s <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/far-right-afd-emerges-as-germanys-second-strongest-party/a-66154675">popularity soars</a>. </p>
<p>The year 2023 demonstrated that right-wing populists can win big at the polls. The West’s chaotic, ad hoc response to hundreds of thousands of refugee-seekers and migrants desperate to find a safe haven from war and poverty is fuelling the electoral appeal of populist movements.</p>
<h2>A new age of extremism</h2>
<p>British historian Eric Hobsbawm called the 20th century <a href="https://reviews.history.ac.uk/review/28">an “age of extremes</a>.” He was speaking of capitalism <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Stalinism">and Stalinism</a>, of empire and turbulent decolonization. Today, we have seemingly passed from the age of extremes into <a href="https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii114/articles/dylan-riley-what-is-trump">an age of extremism.</a></p>
<p>Low-trust voters feel they’ve been misled and reject the traditional policy options offered by social democratic parties. They are too impatient to build generational movements. They want a leader who will kick butt and take names. </p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/10/adopting-rightwing-policies-does-not-help-centre-left-win-votes">decline in support for traditional left-wing parties in the Global North</a>, voters are sending anti-establishment messages to the parties of the right. </p>
<p>Just as they were between the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Europe/The-interwar-years">two world wars in the 20th century</a>, ideological battles are once again fought between those who want to maintain liberal democracy and those who believe that liberals, foreigners and <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2003/cultural-marxism-catching">“cultural Marxists”</a> are the root of all evil. </p>
<h2>Binary voting and wedge issues</h2>
<p>Globally, right-wing populism is set to soar in 2024. </p>
<p>This is an era of the true believer and the culture warrior. Public opinion research from the Economist Intelligence Unit, Freedom House, the Pew Research Center and Sweden’s <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/">V-Dem</a> Institute warn that there are fewer undecided voters than ever.</p>
<p>Modern politics is increasingly an exercise in what’s known <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0609866104">as binary voting</a>. The only effective protest is to vote against the greater evil: Pierre Poilievre against Justin Trudeau, Marine Le Pen against Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump against Joe Biden. </p>
<p>Nothing makes the law-and-order and anti-tax brigades angrier than the false notion of unwanted foreigners cheating the system. Populism is being fuelled by intensifying migration flows around the world. </p>
<p>Amassing on land borders and crossing perilously by sea, migrants and refugees perfectly illustrate the “us versus them” mindset. In the United States, the United Kingdom, Mexico, India, France and even Canada, immigration is either a rising issue or it’s an issue that divides left and right.</p>
<p>Migrants are an easy target but the hate speech is still shocking. </p>
<p>In 2016, Hungary’s Viktor Orban called <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/26/hungarian-prime-minister-viktor-orban-praises-donald-trump">African migrants a “poison”</a>. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/30/trump-poisoning-the-blood-racism">Adolf Hitler’s words</a> have also become standard Trump fare as he recently alleged undocumented migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” Discredited ideologies apparently have a worrying half-life.</p>
<h2>Asylum-seekers and the anxious voter</h2>
<p>Why are migrants such a target of populists when their labour is obviously needed? The answer is simple: in the skewed world view of nationalists, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/13/rishi-sunak-vows-stop-illegal-migrants-who-cheat-reach-uk/">migrants are by definition “cheaters”</a>. </p>
<p>Far-right populists campaign on the false belief that refugee-seekers are also corrupting the traditional way of life, taking jobs and driving up the cost of living. Migrants’ avoidance of expensive, but lawful, immigration channels is usually reason enough to remove them. </p>
<p>In 2016, the EU began paying Turkey six billion euros <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/es/ip_19_6694">to take in undocumented migrants</a>. Since then, the refugee issue in Europe has grown in scale and scope. Increasingly extreme <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/24/italy-immigration-right-wing-meloni-migrant-crisis/">populists have come to power promising to deal with the problem</a>, but they’ve failed to provide any effective solutions.</p>
<p>At the height of the Syrian civil war, more than two million refugees entered Europe. Numbers declined in the following years, but are up again. By the end of 2023, EU countries will have received more than a <a href="https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/54154/eu-asylum-applications-to-surpass-one-million-in-2023#:%7E:text=in%20seven%20years.-,The%20total%20number%20of%20asylum%20applications%20recorded%20in%20the%20European,on%20Tuesday%20(December%2026).">million refugee applications</a>, a number rivalling the 1.3 million who arrived in 2015. </p>
<p>In Italy in the past year, 100,000 refugees have arrived by <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/623514/migrant-arrivals-to-italy/">sea and land</a>. In the U.K., net migration — the difference between those leaving and those arriving — has increased to more than 1.3 million migrants <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53699511">over the same period</a>. It’s the same situation at the American southern border — in 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/29/us/illegal-border-crossings-data.html">two million people </a> illegally crossed the border.</p>
<h2>A problem with no solution</h2>
<p>Migration flows are intensified by <a href="https://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/wicked-problem/about/What-is-a-wicked-problem">every other serious challenge</a> facing our societies. Climate change, war and geopolitical rivalry drive already precarious populations to seek a place of greater safety. But as the numbers rise, politicians <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/eu-is-stuck-with-its-one-trick-refugee-policy-2023-10-09/">continuously recycle</a> bad ideas: close the border, send them back, send them elsewhere. </p>
<p>The narrative of the enemy at the gate is demonstrably false. <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/01/global-fertility-has-collapsed-with-profound-economic-consequences">Declining birth rates</a> in <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/new-economics-of-fertility-doepke-hannusch-kindermann-tertilt">rich countries</a> mean that maintaining the standard of living to which westerners have become accustomed will require <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63643912">more immigration</a>, not less. </p>
<p>Even so, in Canada, with one of the most liberal models of immigration in the world, voters are doubting the benefits. In a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/immigration-fuelling-housing-crisis-poll-1.7043324">recent poll</a>, three out of four Canadians thought that high levels of immigration were making the housing crisis worse and putting pressure on the health-care system. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-the-dramatic-shift-in-canadian-public-opinion-about-immigration-levels-219193">What's behind the dramatic shift in Canadian public opinion about immigration levels?</a>
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<p>Nonetheless, wealthy countries will remain a magnet for poor and displaced people. A hundred thousand desperate people crossed the English Channel last year in search of safety and to take up <a href="https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/brexit-exacerbated-labour-shortages-in-the-uk-but-is-not-the-only-cause/">jobs left by EU citizens</a>. </p>
<p>The main drivers of migration today are not just poverty and war in the Middle East and Ukraine, but also <a href="https://www.cdhowe.org/public-policy-research/empty-seats-why-labour-shortages-plague-small-and-medium-sized-businesses">post-pandemic labour shortages</a>.</p>
<h2>Staring into the abyss?</h2>
<p>At the outset of the 20th century, the affluent world could never have predicted the mechanized slaughter of war and the decimation of the British Empire. </p>
<p>Today we’re standing on the brink of momentous change. <em>The Economist</em> recently proclaimed 2024 will be the <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/2024-is-the-biggest-election-year-in-history">biggest election year</a> in history. More than four billion people, fully half the world’s population, are voting for national leaders. </p>
<p>In more than a dozen countries, populist leaders are poised to either take power or consolidate their hold on the opposition. </p>
<p>Trump will garner most of the headlines, but he is only the thin edge of the wedge. <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/09/javier-milei-is-the-worlds-latest-wannabe-fascist/">Wannabe fascists</a> are set to play a bigger role in world affairs this year than they have at any time since the Second World War.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220942/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In more than a dozen countries this year, populist leaders are poised to either take power or consolidate their hold on the opposition. Migrants are the unfortunate target of populist ire.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189422023-12-15T14:48:26Z2023-12-15T14:48:26ZUS election: how populists encourage blind mistrust – and how to push back<p>Populism is booming. The first US Republican primary is only weeks away and former president Donald Trump, who is a master of populist techniques, commands <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/24/us/politics/polls-biden-trump.html">substantial support</a>. Meanwhile <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/revealed-one-in-three-europeans-now-votes-anti-establishment">one in three</a> Europeans are now voting for populist parties.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I carried out <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12798">research</a> of politicians and news media in the US, UK, and Australia that revealed a significant populist strategy to present “elites” – such as opposition politicians, lawyers and civil servants – as setting out to misinform and manipulate the public. </p>
<p>At the heart of liberal democracy lies the principle of pluralism, that there are diverse views on how society should work and that numerous institutions operate independently <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/pluralism-politics">to balance competing interests</a>. For this principle to work, it’s important that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn054">the public trust</a> that these diverse voices act in good faith. </p>
<h2>Who are ‘elites’?</h2>
<p>However, populists seek to chip away at this by accusing a wide variety of organisations as either being <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/article-10225701/MAIL-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Lefts-great-Blob-obduracy-blocks-path-reform.html">run by “elites”</a>, or working as <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3903436/Enemies-people-Fury-touch-judges-defied-17-4m-Brexit-voters-trigger-constitutional-crisis.html">agents</a> of <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/unholy-alliance-academic-elite-government-bureaucrats-threatens-free-speech-everywhere">elite interests</a>. </p>
<p>The specifics may vary depending on the national context, such as who exactly “the elites” are and why they supposedly collude. But the overall function remains the same: to discredit democratic institutions or the media. </p>
<p>This is because when people see institutions such as the judiciary, the media and universities as connected to them and working for the good of the public, the more likely they are to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14792779543000011">listen to or trust them</a>.</p>
<p>This might sound familiar as prominent populist, Donald Trump, has regularly spoken of <a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/donald-trump-eight-minute-tirade-civil-fraud-case-begins/">“witch hunts”</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/eyes-2024-trump-rails-deep-state-first-24-rally-rcna76774">“the deep state”</a>, making these central to his efforts to deflect accountability for his past actions as he heads for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president. </p>
<p>But this is not a new strategy for him. In his 2016 presidential bid, Trump often spoke of “<a href="http://fortune.com/2016/06/28/transcript-donald-trump-speech-jobs">special interests in control</a>” who “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHAWbU11LB0">rigged the political and economic system</a>” and criticised <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/us/politics/trump-comments-linked-to-antisemitism.html">various organisations</a> of secretly working to undermine him. </p>
<p>In our research, my colleagues and I argued that this technique is so widespread because its psychological functions are to again erode social trust in democratic institutions. It’s also important to note that the idea of “elite collusion” storylines and terminology are not easily addressed by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272719301859">using fact-based responses</a> because they are not centred on what the information is, but rather, on who conveys the information. </p>
<p>Populists often present themselves as someone who truly works in the public interest, and fighting for the rights of the outsider or “normal working people”. For politicians, this can help propel them to power. It can also help cultivate an idea of shared <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2018.1471948">experiences</a>, such as when Trump recently claimed both he and the public <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzZTffmQEgI">suffered from the elites</a> working against them.</p>
<p>However, buying into this populist way of thinking limits the range of information sources or media outlets that people can engage with or trust. Regardless of how convincing arguments may be or how robust their evidence may seem these “others” are then to be seen as <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111393315342651569">enemies</a>.</p>
<p>It’s important, of course, not to have blind trust in every claim made by established democractic institutions. They can get things <a href="https://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/suppl/2016/01/05/bmjqs-2015-004596.DC1/bmjqs-2015-004596supp_new.pdf">wrong</a>, they can be <a href="https://www.met.police.uk/SysSiteAssets/media/downloads/met/about-us/baroness-casey-review/update-march-2023/baroness-casey-review-march-2023a.pdf">biased</a>, or cause <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66928735">significant harm</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, voters should be equally wary of falling into a state of blind mistrust, where they reject anything a group or organisation says because they are labelled “the elite”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1428332532458721285"}"></div></p>
<p>But it is exactly this kind of generalised, extreme scepticism that populists <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm-v5fkNXqk%22%22">such as Trump</a> and another Republican presidential candidate <a href="https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2023/12/13/vivek-ramaswamy-defends-turn-to-conspiracy-theories-campaigning-iowa-2024/71884398007/">Vivek Ramaswamy</a> try to cultivate.</p>
<h2>Dismantling democratic checks</h2>
<p>There is a further danger in adopting this worldview because this idea of “colluding” with elites, whether they are opposition politicians, academics, writers or civil servants, is a key part of how populists justify dismantling <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/roots-of-polish-populism-no-liberal-tradition-by-slawomir-sierakowski-and-irena-grudzinska-gross-2023-09">democratic checks and balances</a>. </p>
<p>A case in point is Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán. His party’s electoral rhetoric repeatedly lambasted national institutions such as universities and the state broadcaster as <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/5050/dark-money-dirty-politics-and-backlash-against-human-rights/">mouthpieces of powerful elites</a>. Then, when they came to power, they worked to take <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/george-soros-viktor-orban-ceu/588070/">direct control</a> of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956474820910071">these institutions</a>. </p>
<p>As the US approaches the Republican primary season, and the long run towards the November election, this should serve as a significant warning. </p>
<p>Investigative journalists have exposed Trumpite proposals to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/01/red-caesar-authoritarianism-republicans-extreme-right">remove democratic checks and balances</a> and eliminate <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/22/trump-2025-radical-plan-second-term">independent institutions through partisan appointments</a> should he win in 2024. However, it is crucial to also see that, in an echo of Orbán, use of anti-elite talking points are a central part of <a href="https://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf">populist candidates’ justification</a> for taking control. </p>
<p>Not everyone who votes for populist parties harbours <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1770063">anti-democratic or anti-liberal sentiments</a>. They can be critical citizens who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2016.1210875">value democracy</a>. However, such individuals may be unaware that, despite populism’s self-proclaimed role as the champion of “<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09646639231153124">the will of the people</a>”, it subtly undermines fundamental pillars of liberal democracies. </p>
<p>So, there is an opportunity to reach out to those who may be sympathetic to populist politics but could reject it if they grasped the full implications of, for instance, Trump’s relentless attempts to <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111537500450995386">undermine the US legal system</a> before the 2024 election. To educate people about the impact of populist agendas could empower them to dismiss or question populist language. </p>
<p>Recent studies have demonstrated that educating people about the manipulative tactics employed by politicians and those with a political objective, whether it’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13504622.2022.2085671">climate change pseudoscience</a> or <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0013164420940378">fake news</a>, significantly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2021.1876983">reduces their effectiveness</a>. </p>
<p>As the US gears up for the 2024 election, it’s crucial for people to understand how populists cultivate blind mistrust of independent institutions. By fostering this understanding, there’s an opportunity to appeal to voters who lean towards populist politics. Getting them to recognise the potential dangers to liberal democracy could encourage choices at the ballot box that aim to safeguard democratic values.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218942/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Shayegh receives funding from ESRC. Grant: ES/Y007441/1 </span></em></p>Populist leaders are winning support around the world, with their anti-elite messages.John Shayegh, Postdoctoral Researcher, School of Psychology, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2177232023-11-22T14:36:11Z2023-11-22T14:36:11ZSouth African politicians vs judges: new book defends the constitution<p>In 1994, South Africa became a democracy founded on a supreme constitution. The constitution’s <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">preamble</a> affirms the nation’s quest to</p>
<blockquote>
<p>establish a society based on democratic values, social justice and fundamental human rights. </p>
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<p>The constitution clearly envisioned political accountability and judicial review of executive and legislative actions. But, almost three decades on, this vision is increasingly under virulent criticism by populist politicians.</p>
<p>Dan Mafora’s new <a href="https://www.nb.co.za/en/view-book/?id=9780624093916">book</a>, Capture in the Court – In Defence of Judges and the Constitution, likens the rising rebellion against judges and the constitution to “judicial capture”. He labels this rebellion “anti-constitutionalism” and explains the key factors behind “the less-than-happy relations between the courts and politicians”. </p>
<p>Mafora writes from an insider-outsider perspective. He is a senior researcher at the non-profit <a href="https://za.linkedin.com/company/council-for-the-advancementof-the-south-african-constitution">Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution</a>, an ex-corporate lawyer, and a former clerk in the <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/">Constitutional Court of South Africa</a>.</p>
<p>As someone who has taught the South African bill of rights and <a href="https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/edcoll/9781788113199/9781788113199.00012.xml">written</a> about <a href="https://www.pulp.up.ac.za/component/edocman/constitutionalism-and-democratic-governance-in-africa-contemporary-perspectives-from-sub-saharan-africa">constitutionalism in Africa</a>, I understand the significance of this book. </p>
<p>Although its title seems sensationalist, it is justified by its depressing evidence. As Mafora states:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is now not an uncommon occurrence for a former president to claim that we are under a judicial dictatorship, or for a senior leader of the official opposition to claim that the Constitutional Court leaked a judgment to the ANC …</p>
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<p>The ANC (African National Congress) has governed the country since 1994. </p>
<p>In the first decade after the 1994 democratic elections, South Africa was hailed as a beacon of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/constitutionalism">constitutionalism</a>. This is the idea that governmental authority is determined by a supreme constitution enforced by judges. So how did the country <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/anname/v681y2019i1p194-208.html">fall</a> from this heady height?</p>
<h2>Rise of anti-constitutionalism</h2>
<p>Mafora attributes the fall to four interwoven elements: </p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/lawfare">lawfare</a> or the “steady judicialisation of politics”</p></li>
<li><p>misinformation campaigns</p></li>
<li><p>increased public visibility of lawyers and judges</p></li>
<li><p>the sluggish pace of socio-economic transformation. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Populist politicians claim that <a href="https://theconversation.com/rule-of-law-in-south-africa-protects-even-those-who-scorn-it-175533">judges constrain socio-economic change</a> by protecting neoliberal economic policies, notably <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-reform-in-south-africa-what-the-real-debate-should-be-about-182277">land laws</a>. </p>
<p>Since <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/johncomaroff/john-comaroff-explains-lawfare">lawfare</a> and misinformation underlie the book’s theme of “judicial capture”, they deserve a closer look.</p>
<p><strong>Lawfare</strong> is commonly understood as the strategic use of legal proceedings to intimidate or restrict the agency of an opponent. In the post-apartheid era, it <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333571635_%27Lawfare%27_in_South_Africa_and_Its_Effects_on_the_Judiciary">refers to</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>the use of litigation to resolve contentious political disputes in spite of the existence of many non-curial [non-judicial] constitutional safeguards.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Mafora traces lawfare to the ANC’s failure on two counts. One was the failure to choose between constitutionalism and “people’s power” during the 1990s <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-1994-miracle-whats-left-159495">negotiations that ended apartheid</a>. The other was its failure to fully promote constitutionalism afterwards. It ideologically linked <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/peoples-power-1986">“people’s power”</a> to its <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/index.php/site/q/03lv02424/04lv02730/05lv03005/06lv03132/07lv03140/08lv03145.htm">National Democratic Revolution</a>. This Soviet-inspired concept aimed at realising a social system between capitalism and communism. </p>
<p>The ANC was happy with constitutionalism as long as its outcomes coincided with the goals of the National Democratic Revolution. Failing this, it tried unsuccessfully to manipulate the judiciary to realise these goals. In Mafora’s words, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Today’s ANC, frankly put, does not truly believe in the idea of a supreme Constitution to which it is bound and under which it ought to function. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Using many examples, he argues that the ANC’s indifference to constitutionalism has left the constitution vulnerable to opportunistic attacks by politicians. Misinformation plays a huge role in these attacks.</p>
<p><strong>Misinformation:</strong> Information wars occur through chat bots and fake social media handles that spin the narratives of their creators. Misinformation creates doubt over conflicting narratives. It breeds mistrust in the judiciary, especially when judges’ decisions appear to contradict the public’s commonsense understanding of issues. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-judges-in-south-africa-under-threat-or-do-they-complain-too-much-45459">Are judges in South Africa under threat or do they complain too much?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The unfortunate result is a perception that the courts rarely act in the interest of the masses. This encourages anti-constitutionalism and loud noises for a return to (apartheid era) parliamentary supremacy.</p>
<p>So, what is the panacea?</p>
<h2>In defence of constitutionalism</h2>
<p>Mafora rightly regards constitutionalism as integral to democratic governance. It underpins </p>
<ul>
<li><p>multi-party democracy </p></li>
<li><p>supremacy of the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/SAConstitution-web-eng-02.pdf">bill of rights</a> </p></li>
<li><p>primacy of the rule of law</p></li>
<li><p>judges’ power to review legislative and executive conduct with due respect for separation of powers and cooperative governance.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>He takes pains to explain these legal concepts, hoping that doing so will improve </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the low level of constitutional literacy among South Africans, [which] renders them vulnerable to both misinformation and disinformation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Interestingly, Mafora attempts to debunk accusations that the constitution is colonial. He analyses two schools of thought. </p>
<p>The first holds that the common law is colonial because it was “received” into South Africa through colonial conquest. </p>
<p>The second says the common law is colonial also because it is rooted in European legal tradition. </p>
<p>Mafora thinks that for law to still qualify as colonial, it must reproduce the inequitable relations that defined “colonial law, administration and experience”. He argues that <a href="https://unimelb.libguides.com/c.php?g=929734&p=6718215#:%7E:text=The%20Roman%2DDutch%20law%20common,traced%20to%20this%20civilian%20heritage.">Roman-Dutch law</a>, which was almost entirely private law, lost its colonial baggage in South Africa. </p>
<p>He is right to condemn how public officials use decolonisation for political gains. But in my view, he seems to misunderstand the nature of South Africa’s constitution.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rule-of-law-in-south-africa-protects-even-those-who-scorn-it-175533">Rule of law in South Africa protects even those who scorn it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As I have <a href="https://repository.uwc.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10566/7355/Diala_law_2021.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">argued</a> elsewhere, colonial patterns of power persist. These make Africans cultural and intellectual clones of Europeans. In this context, is the constitution not part of the Roman-Dutch law, which emerged from European culture? </p>
<h2>A Eurocentric constitution</h2>
<p>Mafora fails to point out how the bill of rights, the cornerstone of South Africa’s constitution, was inspired by the 1948 <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights">Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a>. Crudely put, the declaration symbolised western nations’ reaction to the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/summary/World-War-II">second world war</a> and centuries of violent conflicts. With zero indigenous African input, it represented western legal culture. </p>
<p>Significantly, South Africa’s constitution <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">claims</a> authority over African customary laws and the colonially imposed European laws regarded as the common law. But given its intellectual roots in European laws, the constitution’s authority over the common law is like regulating itself. So, in my view, the constitution is part of Roman-Dutch law, and therefore part of the colonial heritage.</p>
<p>Mafora’s book is nevertheless important for understanding and managing the relationship between judges, politicians and the constitution. It is timely because South Africa is facing an existential crisis of service delivery, which belies the post-apartheid optimism of good governance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Diala receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 136532). However, the opinions, findings and recommendations here are his alone.</span></em></p>The governing ANC’s indifference to constitutionalism has left the constitution vulnerable to opportunistic attack by politicians.Anthony Diala, Director, Centre for Legal Integration in Africa, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181552023-11-21T13:33:26Z2023-11-21T13:33:26ZNew Argentinian president Javier Milei promises to ‘take a chainsaw’ to country’s crippled economy<p>When Javier Milei’s opponent in the 2023 Argentinian elections conceded victory on Sunday night it was obvious that the maverick <a href="https://theconversation.com/libertarian-economics-a-philosophical-critique-68043">libertarian economist</a> was going to win big. And he did: once counting finished on Monday, Milei had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/">taken 56% compared to 44% for his opponent</a>, former finance minister Sergio Massa – in doing so he won the <a href="https://tn.com.ar/politica/2023/11/20/javier-milei-es-el-presidente-electo-mas-votado-de-la-historia-argentina/">most votes</a> in any election in Argentine history.</p>
<p>In the middle of a savage economic crisis in Argentina, with inflation <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/">running at 143%</a> (with forecasts it will <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-braces-election-with-economy-intensive-care-2023-10-19/">rise above 200%</a> by the end of the year) Latin America’s third-largest economy is in “<a href="https://www.aol.co.uk/news/argentina-braces-election-economy-intensive-100539997.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJ9qFo9CR8J9WFe6Moy6gsLG84nIm4-sYEeP05chK-oxCA75zfPCCA5uopyuof562oT7KqO_ZC_6o2seFWWLC6ZVA4k4syFf7kcoqiM0VKtH8BMVuCU8GWuqQqXENMnE6ahg76SrYXNpgDh1V6NRJLhvj4v-k9uoI8-du-w09PfU">intensive care</a>”.</p>
<p>To many of his supporters, Milei represents “<em>cambio</em>” – change. But how much he can present a clear alternative rather than an angry backlash to the status-quo remains to be seen.</p>
<h2>Milei the maverick</h2>
<p>Milei gained attention as a media commentator, becoming ubiquitous in Argentinian television and soon became known for his <a href="https://www.pagina12.com.ar/585610-la-catarata-de-insultos-de-javier-milei-uno-mas-discriminant">aggressive and foul-mouthed rhetoric</a>. His public profile grew as he neither held back from insulting his opponents nor shied away from controversy, always with an eccentric edge. During his campaign he gained the nickname the “<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/argentina-elects-a-far-right-chainsaw-wielding-president/">chainsaw president</a>” for his habit of appearing at rallies wielding the power tool while pledging to slash public spending.</p>
<p>He is also known for apparently consulting his <a href="https://time.com/6337474/javier-milei-argentina-president-cloned-dogs-advice/">dead dog Conan</a>, a 200-pound English mastiff who he had cloned in 2018, yielding five new versions of Conan, one of whom he named after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/milton-friedman-3687">hero of neoliberal economics</a>, Milton Freedman.</p>
<p>His positions have not always proved popular. In the final presidential debate he was forced to distance himself from his attacks on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/world/americas/javier-milei-pope-francis-argentina-election.html">Pope Francis</a> (an Argentinian) who he called “evil” and a “filthy leftist”. Interestingly, while he insisted that Argentina should have <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/20/javier-milei-argentina-soverignty-over-falkland-islands/">“non-negotiable”</a> sovereignty over Las Malvinas (Falkland Islands), he did so with the caveat that the final decision about the islands’ future should lie with the people living there. He has also <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/margaret-thatcher-a-great-leader-argentine-candidate-declares-02x387520">described Margaret Thatcher</a> as “one of the greatest leaders in the history of humanity”.</p>
<p>An outspoken fan of former US president Donald Trump (he has adopted the slogan “make Argentina great again”, Maga) he mimic’s Trump’s attacks on the “elites”, or what Milei calls “the caste”. </p>
<h2>Why did it take so long?</h2>
<p>Public anger at economic mismanagement is key to understanding his success. With inflation consistently at well <a href="https://theconversation.com/argentinas-economic-crisis-whoever-wins-presidential-election-is-on-a-collision-course-with-the-imf-214656">over 100%</a>, rapid devaluation of the peso and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-poverty-rate-rises-401-first-half-2023-2023-09-27/#:%7E:text=BUENOS%20AIRES%2C%20Sept%2027%20(Reuters,reported%20a%20rate%20of%2036.5%25.">growing poverty</a> Milei exploited a deep rage within Argentina society.</p>
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<p>The past two decades have seen 16 years of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-change-in-argentina-as-sun-sets-on-the-kirchner-era-45666">centre-left alliance</a>, associated with the populist figure Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her late husband, Néstor. Despite widespread social redistribution, the reduction of debt and poverty, the “Kirchnerist” alliance became tarred with allegations of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/26/the-corruption-case-against-argentina-vp-kirchner-explained">corruption</a> and <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/argentinas-economy-minister-resigns-after-being-criticised-for-economic-mismanagement-494002">economic mismanagement</a>. </p>
<p>Kirchnerists represented the inefficiency of a big state development model to which Milei proposes to <a href="https://theconversation.com/health-on-the-ballot-as-argentina-poised-to-elect-anarcho-capitalist-bent-on-slashing-social-protections-214193">take his chainsaw</a>.</p>
<p>The Argentinian people’s decision to opt for Milei’s brand of “anarcho-capitalism” is not surprising, given it represents radical change from decades of big and highly centralised government. Peronist parties, first coming to power under Juan Domingo Perón (1945-1954), have dominated Argentine politics ever since, including from the shadows during military rule. It has done this through an alliance of both left and right: trade unions and big business and an effective party machine <a href="https://theconversation.com/argentina-elections-is-frontrunner-alberto-fernandez-a-populist-125629">with tentacles across the country</a> and networks of party bosses who ran a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-peronism-massa-milei-f5db5a92328f4316384ff6e0092c5272">plethora of welfare programmes</a>.</p>
<p>A system that promoted <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/Poor-Peoples-Politics/">political clientelism</a> (handouts for votes) meant that Peronism was able to dominate the political landscape. But inevitably a system that promotes populist politics has led to a deep <a href="https://theconversation.com/argentina-elections-is-frontrunner-alberto-fernandez-a-populist-125629">polarisation of Argentine society</a>, which has pitted elites (the “caste”) against ordinary people struggling in desperate economic circumstances and angry at what they see as <a href="https://borgenproject.org/corruption-in-argentina/">corruption at the top</a>.</p>
<h2>Radical project</h2>
<p>With the economy in tatters (a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/argentinas-unprecedented-drought-pummels-farmers-economy-2023-03-09/">recent drought</a> has devastated Argentina’s hugely important agricultural export sector) the country remains shackled to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/imfs-argentina-predicament-seek-reforms-tango-or-kill-music-2023-09-15/">massive IMF debt</a> that never seems to get any smaller.</p>
<p>Milei’s campaign was based around his pledge to achieve the “<a href="https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/president-elect-javier-milei-vows-to-end-argentine-decadence-in-victory-speech.phtml">end of Argentina’s decay</a>”. His programme will be based on three foundations: dramatically reducing the size of government, a respect for private property and the promotion of free trade. Milei has <a href="https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/mileinomics-javier-mileis-economic-plan-for-argentina">trumpeted plans</a> to dismantle many government ministries, alongside getting rid of the Central Bank and adopting the US dollar.</p>
<p>It’s hard to overestimate the magnitude of Milei’s project. Effectively he is promising to tear apart the existing fabric of Argentine society and replace it with a free-market based on liberal values. It’s a long-term vision. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=KGSsgqOmQ3Q&pp=ygUII21pbGVpMjA%3D">He says</a>: “Give me 20 years and we’ll be Italy – with 35, the USA.”</p>
<p>His activist base, many of them young, educated men who felt robbed of a prosperous future, celebrated their triumph chanting “they all must go” to the soundtrack of 1990s rock-band <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bersuit_Vergarabat">Bersuit Vergarabat</a>. The chant was last used to get rid of politicians following the crisis provoked by Milei’s <a href="https://www.infobae.com/politica/2020/08/04/javier-milei-menem-fue-el-mejor-presidente-de-toda-la-historia/">neoliberal idol</a> Carlos Menem whose 1990s dollarisation helped crash the economy. The choice of music is also interesting, given the band’s lead singer’s <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/espectaculos/gustavo-cordera-y-su-repudiable-declaracion-hay-mujeres-que-necesitan-ser-violadas-para-tener-sexo-nid1926645/">misogynist comment</a>: “There are women who need to be raped to have sex”, which led to them being cancelled in 2016.</p>
<h2>Warning signs</h2>
<p>This leaves Argentine society in a dark moment. Milei’s forces want to build a society that celebrates masculinity. The hard-won feminist victory for <a href="https://theconversation.com/argentina-votes-to-legalise-abortion-in-latest-victory-for-global-feminism-98299">access to safe and free abortion</a> could fall apart before it has been consolidated. </p>
<p>Most alarmingly, as Argentina celebrates 40 years of uninterrupted democratic rule, the incoming <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-09-25/victoria-villarruel-javier-mileis-running-mate-who-vindicates-the-dictatorship-and-opposes-abortion-and-gay-marriage.html">vice-president Victoria Villarruel</a> has led a revisionist movement that downplays the crimes of the military junta and opposes gay marriage and abortion.</p>
<p>What comes next is hard to predict. Milei’s party, Freedom Advances, has only seven seats out of 72 in the Senate and 37 out of 257 in the lower Chamber of Deputies. Much will depend on how Milei can leverage his obvious personal popularity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Halvorsen receives funding from The British Academy. </span></em></p>The maverick ‘anarcho-capitalist’ faces huge challenges as he sets out to completely remodel the Argentinian economy.Sam Halvorsen, Reader in Human Geography, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125142023-08-31T17:21:47Z2023-08-31T17:21:47ZHow this summer’s hit ‘Rich Men North of Richmond’ was appropriated by both the right and left<p>This summer two American country singers, Jason Aldean and Oliver Anthony, came out of nowhere with unexpected hits. In both cases, their songs were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/17/rich-men-north-of-richmond-song/">politically appropriated</a>. </p>
<p><em>Rich Men North of Richmond</em> by Oliver Anthony, which appeared on YouTube just a few weeks ago, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/arts/music/rich-men-north-of-richmond-billboard-chart.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes">is the No. 1 song in the U.S. this week</a>, surpassing even Taylor Swift. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sqSA-SY5Hro?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">“Rich Men North of Richmond” is now the No. 1 song on the U.S. Billboard Top 100.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sociologically speaking, although its content is essentially libertarian, the song <a href="https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20230818-rich-men-north-of-richmond-the-hit-song-that-has-divided-the-us">muddies the waters</a> between the American populist left and the right. It is celebrated by both the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party and some Democrats. </p>
<p>Anthony’s song was featured at the first 2024 Republican presidential primary debate. The singer has said he hates to “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/25/entertainment/oliver-anthony-song-response/index.html">to see that song being weaponized</a>. I see the right trying to characterize me as one of their own, and I see the left trying to discredit me.”</p>
<p>While Anthony has avoided partisan politics, the singer of <em>Try that in a Small Town</em>, Jason Aldean, is an avowed Trump supporter. His hit is clearly on the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/07/jason-aldean-donald-trump/674842/">right of the political spectrum</a> and lauded by Republicans.</p>
<p>Oliver Anthony presents himself as “pretty dead centre on politics.” But that didn’t prevent him from reading verses of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6J9AVlI0ZQ">Psalms, evoking God’s enemies</a>, during a recent performance of his hit song. The song’s lyrics fit the ideology of the American libertarian universe well. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Try that in a Small Town’ is clearly on the right of the political spectrum.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As researchers working in the field of political sociology, we are interested in representations of those within nationalist and populist movements. </p>
<h2>Two visions of the “people”</h2>
<p>But before analyzing the songs, let’s recall what populists on both the left and the right have in common.</p>
<p>Each sees the political field as divided between the people (seen as organic, authentic and moral) and elites (which are considered disconnected, strategic, inauthentic and above all, immoral). The left tends to see the people as a <em>demos</em> — the bedrock of democracy — while the right views them as an <em>ethnos</em> or <em>heartland</em> — guardians of the nation’s authenticity. </p>
<p>Right-wing populists see the community as distinct from the state. In their view it is characterized by its high capital of autochthony, of “local people,” as opposed to immigrants or elites. The evocation of the <em>small town</em> in Aldean’s hit is typical of this representation.</p>
<h2>Work valued, work despised</h2>
<p>The American populist right is characterized by its adherence to both the ideologies of producerism and libertarianism. </p>
<p>Producerism is an attachment to a rigorous work ethic in both senses of the word — rigorous in the Protestant sense of a disciplined, vocational and meritorious relationship to work, but also in the valorization of manual and physical labour, or what sociologist Everett Hughes describes as <a href="https://psychology.iresearchnet.com/industrial-organizational-psychology/recruitment/dirty-work/">“dirty work.”</a></p>
<p>Recent research on the social identity of “dirty” occupations explains how its artisans reconstruct their self-perception in order to create a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/259134">positive image</a>. From this perspective, Anthony’s evocation of the situation of miners activates solidarity among the people who do this kind of work. In this way, they reconfigure their identity by responding to the contempt in which their occupation is held. </p>
<p>Finally, assiduous religious practice is often associated with adherence to a populist conception of politics. In <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-flag-and-the-cross-9780197618684?cc=us&lang=en&"><em>The Flag and the Cross</em></a>, sociologists Philip S. Gorsky and Samuel L. Perry demonstrate that white people who identify as evangelical Christians are much more likely to adhere to Christian and white nationalism than are non-believers. </p>
<h2>A class discourse with a libertarian dimension</h2>
<p>However, what sets Anthony’s song apart from the usual populist right-wing discourse is that it formulates a class opposition based on socioeconomic income. This goes further than the vague evocation of an opposition between common people and elites. And this explains why the song also appeals to some on the left. </p>
<p>Yet there’s nothing specifically “left-wing” about the moral denunciation of the rich. Above all, it has deep roots in the Christian tradition. </p>
<p>Conversely, for the social-democratic tradition, it’s not the fact of being rich that’s evil in itself, but rather the absence of labour law, of freedom of association and of mechanisms and institutions that ensure redistributive justice. </p>
<p>So, as singer Billy Bragg points out in a song responding to <a href="https://genius.com/Billy-bragg-rich-men-earning-north-of-a-million-lyrics">Anthony’s hit</a>, unions are conspicuously absent in Anthony’s worldview, as they are in that of libertarians. </p>
<p>To counter the very real difficulties brought about by the transformation of the working world, contemporary social democrats suggest establishing major continuing education programs and investing in adult education. This type of occupational retraining will attenuate the anxiety generated by the “New World” Anthony evokes in his song. </p>
<h2>Inflation and ‘peripheral regions’</h2>
<p>On the right, several factors explain the success of Anthony’s anthem.</p>
<p>Firstly, there’s the widespread perception that the left has abandoned the blue-collar workers to whom <em>Rich Men</em> is de facto addressed. Part of this segment of the population feels scorned by “elites” who monopolize symbolic, educational and cultural capital. The fact that they are considered privileged on the basis of their “race” and their “gender,” according to some rather mechanical analyses, does little to help us understand the stigma these workers actually face, nor the social issues confronting post-industrial regions. </p>
<p>This first dynamic is amplified by what is also perceived as a lack of understanding of the day-to-day reality of people who live far from major urban centres.</p>
<p>Inhabitants of the rural areas <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10371656.2019.1645429?needAccess=true">tend not to feel represented</a> by elected representatives and the media. Even if this dynamic persists year after year, it is rare for the left to question the importance of including the point of view of rural inhabitants within “good” diversity. </p>
<p>On the other hand, inflationary times favour the spread of libertarian “solutions.” When citizens see their purchasing power melt away and the price of their mortgage soar, they are faced with difficult choices, or even seeing their life project at risk. If they don’t see the positive impact of the taxes they pay, they are likely to see the social state and redistributive justice as mechanisms that don’t work for them. </p>
<h2>Polarization benefits populists</h2>
<p>There is no magic bullet to stop the rise of the populist right. But there are some sociological lessons to be learned about polarization.</p>
<p>The social identity of groups is largely constructed through framing, rituals and interactions. To defuse the polarization that feeds the populist right, its opponents must stop appealing to them as a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2021/08/31/deplorables-basket-hillary-clinton/">“basket of deplorables,”</a> to cite Hilary Clinton’s elitist phrase. Opponents of the populist right must also stop pathologizing them, as is often the case in psychological approaches to political radicalization. Rather than defusing the framing and polarization that benefit populist politicians, these approaches reinforce them.</p>
<p>The main effect of excluding groups from participating in legitimate political interactions is to reinforce their solidarity. Mocking their rituals has the same effect. A legal framework must prevent incitement to violence and defamation and protect the right to one’s reputation and privacy. Ultimately, however, allowing participation can enable members of groups to reframe their discourse. It can also bring about changes that defuse or alter the social identity of people who identify with the groups. </p>
<p>Members of the populist right are generally able to supply cognitive or moral reasons to justify their actions. No one is obliged to share them, nor to find them “good.” However, we must seek to understand them, and to reconstruct the perceptions of justice and injustice that they fuel, or on which they are based. It’s an avenue as unpopular as it is difficult, but the alternatives are not clear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212514/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Although its content is essentially libertarian, the No. 1 song of the summer in the U.S. resonates with both some Democratic supporters and those on the Trumpist right.Frédérick Guillaume Dufour, Professeur en sociologie politique, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Alexis Harton, Étudiant à la maîtrise en sociologie, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2061342023-06-28T15:26:10Z2023-06-28T15:26:10ZWhy so many people have had enough of experts – and how to win back trust<p>When senior British politician Michael Gove announced in 2016 that the public had <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3be49734-29cb-11e6-83e4-abc22d5d108c">“had enough of experts”</a> in the lead up to the Brexit vote, it highlighted a growing trend for questioning the authority and power of experts. </p>
<p>Only last month, the home secretary, Suella Braverman, took to the stage at the National Conservatism conference to rail against <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/15/suella-braverman-rails-against-experts-and-elites-in-partisan-speech">“experts and elites”</a>. Such comments form part of <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-gb/The+Crisis+of+Expertise-p-9780745665771">a broader pattern</a> where experts and their authority have faced significant challenges and threats from various economic, political, social and cultural sources. </p>
<p>An expert is conceptualised as someone with knowledge accrued in an accredited fashion, who then operates with a high degree of independence as a result of that knowledge and skill. Their power and influence has traditionally played an important role in society – but this authority is increasingly being questioned from many sides. </p>
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<p>At the beginning of the pandemic, there was potential for a restoration of trust in expert authority. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-16-march-2020">Politicians</a> and <a href="https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020">international bodies</a> talked about the importance of using expertise as the most viable path to navigate the COVID crisis. The public also <a href="https://www.ukri.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/UKRI-271020-COVID-19-Trust-Tracker.pdf">sought more communication</a> from scientific experts. </p>
<p>Even leaders such as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/donald-trump-rejects-expertise/579808/">Donald Trump</a> and <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/24/brexit-latest-news-supreme-court-ruling-boris-johnson-prorogue/">Boris Johnson</a>, who had previously questioned the credibility of experts, appeared alongside medical professionals during press conferences to reassure the public.</p>
<p>But as the pandemic progressed, the authority of experts declined – with a few noteworthy exceptions such as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/26/coronavirus-pandemic-global-response-devi-sridhar-review/">New Zealand, South Korea and Senegal</a>, which maintained their reliance on expertise to guide their decision-making processes. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110734911">My new book</a>, co-authored with <a href="https://profiles.cardiff.ac.uk/staff/reedm">Michael Reed</a>, identifies three broad explanations for this decline which we call delegitimation, demystification and decomposition.</p>
<h2>Delegitimation</h2>
<p>One way the authority of experts diminishes is when societal institutions and structures that have traditionally supported them – such as governments, media and business – themselves face criticism, in particular from populist political movements.</p>
<p>Technology-driven advancements such as social media have accelerated this trend. Social media democratises communication and provides global platforms for those who want to question established societal structures and institutions. </p>
<p>This in turn can lead to these organisations turning on their expert advisors, in addition to populist groups using alternative platforms to directly express their scepticism of experts.</p>
<p>There were examples of this trend during the pandemic. Figures such as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/politics/fauci-coronavirus-us-response/index.html">Trump</a> and then Brazilian president <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-says-coronavirus-crisis-is-a-media-trick">Jair Bolsonaro</a> openly challenged and dismissed experts. Trump’s position changed as COVID was not quickly “solved”.</p>
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<img alt="A man with orange face and hair stands behind a podium with a microphone raising his index finger with a doubtful expression." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533198/original/file-20230621-18-c1l04e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533198/original/file-20230621-18-c1l04e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533198/original/file-20230621-18-c1l04e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533198/original/file-20230621-18-c1l04e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533198/original/file-20230621-18-c1l04e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533198/original/file-20230621-18-c1l04e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533198/original/file-20230621-18-c1l04e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Donald Trump initially stood alongside scientific experts during the pandemic before using Twitter to dismiss them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wilkesbarre-pa-august-2-2018-president-1148319797">Wilkes-Barre/PA/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The spread of online disinformation and misinformation amplified the decline of expert authority. This led to the emergence of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-descent-into-culture-wars-has-been-rapid-but-it-neednt-be-terminal-182885">culture wars</a>” centred around virus control, including mask wearing.</p>
<h2>2. Demystification</h2>
<p>When people learn more about experts, in terms of who they are, what they do and who they serve, their power can again diminish. Individual experts are increasingly being watched and criticised as they become more closely associated with institutions such as government, corporations and banks. As a result, the lines are increasingly blurred between independent experts and organisational agendas.</p>
<p>The UK government used the country’s leading medical experts such as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/people/christopher-whitty">Chris Whitty</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/people/patrick-vallance">Patrick Vallance</a> to support its political rhetoric during the pandemic. They stood beside the prime minister at press conferences, but were often scapegoated for government decisions that were more <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/failures-of-state-the-inside-story-of-britains-battle-with-coronavirus-jonathan-calvertgeorge-arbuthnott?variant=39528280391758">politically motivated</a> than based on medical expertise. </p>
<p>Giving evidence at the COVID inquiry, Whitty <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65989350">warned</a> that threats to independent experts could undermine responses to disasters in the future:</p>
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<p>We should be very firm in saying that society very much appreciates the work of these people [experts and scientists], who put in considerable amounts of time … We, society, need to ensure scientists know their service is valued.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>3. Decomposition</h2>
<p>Finally, the authority of experts is also declining because there are now <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jpo/article-abstract/5/3/248/5151287">more occupations claiming expert status</a>, including management occupations such as human resource management, marketing and project management. While this can democratise expertise, it can also challenge the primacy of the traditional accredited sectors such as law, medicine and accountancy.</p>
<p>The pandemic has highlighted the fragmentation of expert occupations. Many different groups were involved in tackling the crisis, with multiple ideas being debated in public. This led to people questioning expert authority, as they saw different experts giving contrasting advice on issues such as mask use, herd immunity and vaccine efficacy.</p>
<h2>Rethinking how experts interact</h2>
<p>So, how can experts maintain their authority and power in a world where people are increasingly sceptical of them? We argue the authority and power of expertise can be maintained by rethinking how experts interact with governments and the public.</p>
<p>Traditionally, experts have had autonomy to control their work, but this has led to a lack of trust. In future, experts will need to be more transparent and accountable to the public. </p>
<p>Instead of the traditional, top-down view of expert authority, we can imagine a more reflexive, dynamic and contested form of expert power that is open to other standards. This would broaden decision-making processes to wider audiences, and involve a continual public dialogue between experts and non-experts. </p>
<p>At the same time, experts will need to work more closely with governments and other bodies to ensure their expertise is taken into account.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politicians-love-to-appeal-to-common-sense-but-does-it-trump-expertise-206453">Politicians love to appeal to common sense – but does it trump expertise?</a>
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<p>None of this will be easy. It requires experts to engage with a broader range of people, some of whom they may have had little previous concern with. It may involve persuading others of their expertise, rather than assuming it as a given. And the power dynamics between experts and other people may alter, meaning there is greater potential for experts to be co-opted to other agendas.</p>
<p>Ultimately, whether we have really “had enough of experts” is questionable. But how these experts secure their power, and convince others of their authority, requires a rethink.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206134/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cara Reed has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. She is a member of the Labour Party.</span></em></p>Our research highlights three key reasons for declining trust in experts, and how to regain their authority in future.Cara Reed, Senior Lecturer in Organisation Studies at Cardiff Business School, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073172023-06-22T08:45:54Z2023-06-22T08:45:54ZCities are central to our future – they have the power to make, or break, society’s advances<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530867/original/file-20230608-3016-2sh956.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dharavi slum in India. Billions of people live in terrible conditions in the world's cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Punit Paranje/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We live in tumultuous times. In the space of just a few years, we have witnessed a surge in <a href="https://ppr.lse.ac.uk/articles/10.31389/lseppr.4">populist politics across the world</a>, a <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019">global pandemic</a>, a spike in <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/weather-related-disasters-increase-over-past-50-years-causing-more-damage-fewer">environmental disasters</a> and a fraying of geopolitical relations demonstrated by the <a href="https://www.ft.com/war-in-ukraine">tragic war in Ukraine</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden">escalating tensions over Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>That has all occurred against a backdrop of dramatic technological changes that are fundamentally altering the way we work and relate to one another. </p>
<p>Our future is in the balance. Cities will be central to our fate, for two reasons. </p>
<p>First, they are now home to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/overview#:%7E:text=Today%2C%20some%2056%25%20of%20the,billion%20inhabitants%20%E2%80%93%20live%20in%20cities">over half of the global population</a>, a share that will rise to <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">two-thirds by 2050</a>. That is something never before seen in human history, and means that the forces shaping life in cities now also shape our world as a whole. </p>
<p>Second, cities throughout history have been the engines of human progress. Cities are where solutions are found – but also where perils are amplified when we fail to act.</p>
<p>This article draws on a book I co-authored with Tom Lee-Devlin, <a href="https://linktr.ee/ageofthecity">Age of the City: Why our Future will be Won or Lost Together</a>, which has just been published by Bloomsbury. As the book’s subtitle highlights, we need to ensure that we create more inclusive and sustainable cities if all our societies are to thrive. </p>
<h2>Cities as seats of populist revolt</h2>
<p>The great paradox of modern globalisation is that declining friction in the movement of people, goods and information has made where you live more important than ever. Appreciation of the complexity of globalisation has come a long way since the early 2000s, when American political commentator Thomas Friedman’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/World-Flat-History-Twenty-first-Century/dp/0374292884">The World is Flat </a> and British academic Frances Cairncross’s <a href="https://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/the-death-of-distance-how-the-communications-revolution-is-changing-our-lives-distance-isn-t-what-it-used-to-be">The Death of Distance</a> captured the public’s imagination. </p>
<p>We now know that, far from making the world flat, globalisation has made it spiky. </p>
<p>The growing concentration of wealth and power in major urban metropolises is toxifying our politics. The wave of populist politics engulfing many countries is often built on anger against cosmopolitan urban elites. This has been given expression through <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887">Brexit in Britain</a>, and in support for anti-establishment politicians in the US, France, Italy, Sweden and other countries. </p>
<p>A common thread of all these populist movements is the notion that mainstream politicians, business leaders and media figures cocooned in big cities have let the rest of their countries down and lost interest in “left behind” places and people. </p>
<p>These populist revolts against dynamic cities are rooted in real grievances based on stagnating wages and soaring inequality. </p>
<p>A transformational effort to spread economic opportunity is long overdue. But undermining dynamic cities is not the way to do that. Cities like London, New York and Paris – and in the developing world Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Jakarta, Shanghai, Cairo, Johannesburg and Lagos – are engines of economic growth and job creation without which their respective national economies would be crippled.</p>
<p>What’s more, many of these cities continue to harbour profound inequalities of their own, driven by wildly unaffordable housing and broken education systems, among other things. They are also in a state of flux, thanks to the rise of remote working.</p>
<p>In places like San Francisco, offices and shops are suffering, municipal taxes are declining and businesses that depend on intense footfall – from barbers to buskers – are under threat. So too are public transport systems, many of which depend on mass commuting and are haemorrhaging cash.</p>
<p>All countries, therefore, are in dire need of a new urban agenda, grounded in an appreciation of the power of large cities – when designed properly – to not just drive economic activity and creativity, but also bring together people from many different walks of life, building social cohesion and combating loneliness. </p>
<p>But our focus must extend beyond the rich world. It is in developing countries where most of the growth in cities and the world’s population is taking place. Overcoming poverty, addressing the Sustainable Development Goals and addressing climate change, pandemics and other threats requires that we find solutions in cities around the world. </p>
<h2>Dangers posed for cities in the developing world</h2>
<p>Developing countries now account for most of the world’s city-dwellers, thanks to decades of dramatic urban growth.</p>
<p>In some cases, such as China, rapid urbanisation has been the result of a process of economic modernisation that has lifted large swathes of the population out of poverty. </p>
<p>In others, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, urbanisation and economic development have been disconnected, with rural deprivation and the flight from danger playing a greater role in the migration to cities than urban opportunity. </p>
<p>Either way, cities are now where the world’s poor are choosing to live. And many of their cities are giant and overcrowded, with residents too often living in appalling conditions. </p>
<p>Appreciating what is happening in the cities of the developing world is essential if poverty is to be overcome. It also is vital if we are to understand why contagious diseases are making a comeback. Modern pandemics, from HIV to COVID-19, have their origins in these cities. </p>
<p>Crowded conditions are coinciding with a number of other trends in poor countries, including rapid deforestation, intensive livestock farming and the consumption of bushmeat, to increase the risk of diseases transferring from animals to humans and gaining a foothold in the population. </p>
<p>From there, connectivity between the world’s cities, particularly via airports, makes them a catalyst for the global dissemination of deadly diseases. That means that dreadful living conditions in many developing world cities are not only a pressing humanitarian and development issue, but also a matter of global public health. </p>
<p>Tremendous progress has been made in the past two centuries in <a href="https://wellcome.org/news/reforming-infectious-disease-research-development-ecosystem">combating infectious diseases</a>, but the tide is turning against us. Cities will be the principal battleground for the fight ahead. </p>
<p>Cities are also where humanity’s battle against climate change will be won or lost. Ocean rise, depletion of vital water resources and urban heatwaves risk making many cities uninhabitable. Coastal cities, which account for nearly all global urban growth, are particularly vulnerable. </p>
<p>While rich cities such as Miami, Dubai and Amsterdam are threatened, developing world cities such as Mumbai, Jakarta and Lagos are even more vulnerable due to the cost of developing sea walls, drainage systems and other protective measures. </p>
<p>At the same time, cities, <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/cutting-global-carbon-emissions-where-do-cities-stand">which account for 70% of global emissions</a>, will be at the heart of efforts to mitigate climate change. From encouraging public transport use and the adoption of electric vehicles to developing better systems for heating and waste management, there is much they need to do.</p>
<p>In 1987, Margaret Thatcher is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-quotes">reported to have declared</a>: “There is no such thing as society”, only “individual men and women and families”. In fact, <em>Homo sapiens</em> is a social creature, and our collective prosperity depends on the strength of the bonds between us. If we are to survive the turmoil that lies ahead, we must rediscover our ability to act together. Since their emergence five millennia ago, cities have been central to that. We cannot afford to let them fail.</p>
<p><em>Ian Goldin and Tom Lee-Devlin, <a href="https://linktr.ee/ageofthecity">Age of the City: Why our Future will be Won or Lost Together, Bloomsbury, June 2023</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Goldin receives funding from Citibank, and the Allan and Gill Gray Foundation.
</span></em></p>Cities are where solutions are found – but also where perils are amplified when we fail to act.Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalisation and Development; Director of the Oxford Martin Programmes on Technological and Economic Change, The Future of Work and the Future of Development, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064382023-05-31T20:00:12Z2023-05-31T20:00:12ZFrom Donald Trump to Danielle Smith: 4 ways populists are jeopardizing democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529348/original/file-20230531-21-ur28mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=520%2C0%2C6418%2C4629&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. president Donald Trump gives thumbs up as he watches during the first round of the LIV Golf Tournament at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1954, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1998/11/richard-hofstadters-tradition/377296/">Richard Hofstadter, the eminent American historian of modern conservatism</a>, asked a provocative question about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/joseph-mccarthy-an-american-demagogue-who-foreshadowed-trump/2020/08/27/6d6f3c5c-dbfe-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html">his era’s assault on progressive and left-wing ideals, known as McCarthyism</a>: Where did this extremism come from? </p>
<p>He argued in a <a href="https://theamericanscholar.org/the-pseudo-conservative-revolt/">celebrated essay</a> that even the prosperous, post-Second World War United States was not immune to the radicalism of authoritarian populism. The so-called Red Scare of the 1950s was “simply the old ultra-conservatism and the old isolationism heightened by the extraordinary pressures of the contemporary world.” </p>
<p>Seven decades later, Hofstadter’s words ring true again. Conservative movements are always fighting a rearguard action against modernity by falsely claiming to <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/07/19/borders-exclusion-and-the-populist-radical-right-meta-us/">protect society from progressives</a> who trample traditional values and sneer at the forgotten men and women who embrace them. </p>
<h2>Paranoid politics</h2>
<p>With so much money and power behind it, this paranoid style of politics — with its enemies lists, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/before-nemtsovs-assassination-a-year-of-demonization/2015/03/04/dc8f2afe-c11d-11e4-9ec2-b418f57a4a99_story.html">demonization of opposition leaders</a> and often violent language — has gone mainstream. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theories are no longer a stigma discrediting those who trade in salacious innuendo. Even mainstream politicians are now peddling them.</p>
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<p>But is there anything to fear from the red-hot rhetoric of the paranoid style of politics? Some argue these circumstances <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cars.12263">are cyclical</a>.</p>
<p>In Hofstadter’s time, after all, American conservative politics turned away from fringe radicalism following the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963. The following year, Lyndon Johnson <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1964">defeated right-wing Republican insurgent, Barry Goldwater</a> in one of the largest landslides in U.S. history.</p>
<p>But the crisis we face today is bigger in scale <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/books/review/dark-money-by-jane-mayer.html">and scope</a>. It’s been whipped to a frenzy by political leaders who seek to profit from the chaos that it incites via social media.</p>
<p>Populism was supposed to bring government closer to the people, but it actually places the levers of power <a href="https://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2023/01/the-shill-of-the-people/">squarely in the hands of authoritarians</a>. Here are four ways populism has turned poisonous and poses existential threats to democracy:</p>
<h2>1. The shrinking middle ground</h2>
<p>Democracy without compromise erodes popular sovereignty by fragmenting the electorate and eliminating meaningful compromise.</p>
<p>We are now in a world of zero-sum political contests, with a shrinking <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/04/us-extremism-portland-george-floyd-protests-january-6/673088/">middle ground</a>. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-ucp-proposes-referendums-for-all-tax-increases/">Conservative parties often force extreme referendums</a> to maintain their grip on a deeply divided electorate. </p>
<p>Election campaigns have become dangerous contests over <a href="https://www.populismstudies.org/Vocabulary/culture-war/">wedge issues</a> designed to deepen cultural divisions using social media.</p>
<p>We saw this with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-020-00208-y">Brexit as Boris Johnson and other populists stoked fears about immigration and Europeans</a>. Donald Trump did it well <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/08/26/fact-check-and-review-of-trump-immigration-policy/">with attacks on immigrants.</a> Republicans are now doubling down on the abortion issue, even though they’re facing pushback from <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/2nd-abortion-regulation-bill-vetoed-by-kansas-gov-laura-kelly">some state legislatures and governors</a>.</p>
<p>In Canada, Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith, whose United Conservative Party has been newly re-elected with a majority, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/opinion-ndp-notley-ucp-smith-attack-ads-1.6749431">has focused on demonizing her opponents</a> and has <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-government-attempts-clarification-as-ndp-calls-sovereignty-act-anti-democratic">engaged in anti-democratic conduct</a> in her months as premier.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-itself-is-on-the-ballot-in-albertas-upcoming-election-203817">Democracy itself is on the ballot in Alberta's upcoming election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. The working class isn’t benefiting</h2>
<p>Identity politics isn’t empowering working people because the politics of revenge doesn’t fix structural problems. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, conservative parties around the world are marketing themselves as parties of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/03/working-class-white-voters-gop-house-agenda/673500/">working class</a>. </p>
<p>Populists recognize the <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/education-polarization-diploma-divide-democratic-party-working-class.html">working class is essential</a> to their success at the national level because of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/opinion/education-american-politics.html">“diploma divide</a>” that now separates right and left. </p>
<p>There is a strong correlation between lacking a college diploma and supporting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/14/who-are-national-conservatives-and-what-do-they-want">nationalist conservative movements</a> at election time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sea of university graduates in their convocation robes and caps inside an auditorium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graduates listen during a convocation ceremony at Simon Fraser University, in Burnaby, B.C., in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It used to be that working people recognized education as a path to prosperity. But <a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-college/articles/see-20-years-of-tuition-growth-at-national-universities">massive tuition increases in the U.S.</a>, in particular, have betrayed the promise of universal access to a college degree.</p>
<p>Tuition fees are also heading in the wrong direction in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/education-36150276">the U.K., Canada and Australia</a>. Education now reinforces class divisions rather than breaking down barriers to a better life.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-freedom-convoy-protesters-are-a-textbook-case-of-aggrieved-entitlement-176791">The 'freedom convoy' protesters are a textbook case of 'aggrieved entitlement'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. The rich and powerful direct the chaos</h2>
<p>Populism was supposed to empower people outside the corridors of power, but talk of <a href="https://buffalonews.com/news/liberal-elites-are-at-war-with-u-s-tradition-of-moral-values/article_ba36235a-8518-5d32-8b6f-b392e1083ccf.html">retribution against liberal elites</a> normalizes calls for political violence — always a bad thing.</p>
<p>In a war of all against all, it’s not the wealthy who lose. It’s ordinary, hard-working citizens. </p>
<p>Furthermore, once a lust for vengeance takes hold in the general public, it’s almost always being directed by elites with money and power who benefit financially or politically from the chaos.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a 'team trump' cowboy hat carries an american flag. Behind her rioters confront police wearing riot gear." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Violent protesters loyal to Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Minchillo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Assaults on the rule of law</h2>
<p>Authoritarian leaders have gained unprecedented <a href="https://www.oecd-forum.org/posts/spin-dictators-the-changing-face-of-tyranny-in-the-21st-century">institutional legitimacy</a> by building successful movements based on fantasies of blood and soil. The paranoid style of politics has entered a new phase with a full-spectrum assault on the rule of law — from inside government. </p>
<p>Populists are lying when they argue they want to empower the rest of us by divesting judges of their authority to oversee democracy. They really want to breach the strongest constitutional barrier against authoritarianism. </p>
<p>Look at the situation in Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremist coalition seeks to destroy judicial checks and balances and allow the country’s parliament to <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-in-weekend-interview-overhaul-necessary-as-supreme-court-too-powerful/">overrule its Supreme Court</a>, a move that would ease the prime minister’s legal woes.</p>
<p>Netanyahu has been charged with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/4-corruption-scandals-swirling-around-benjamin-netanyahu-explained">corruption and influence peddling.</a> </p>
<p>Trump’s attempts to undermine the legitimacy of judges are equally self-serving. As he runs again for president, he’s already telegraphing his violent desires, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-pardon-large-portion-jan-6-rioters-rcna83873">promising pardons for the Jan. 6 insurrectionists.</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sea of blue and white Israeli flags during a protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israelis protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul plan outside the parliament in Jerusalem in March 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The road ahead for populists</h2>
<p>The political dial is already spinning. The defeats of Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro don’t represent <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wnet/preserving-democracy/video/martin-wolf-the-crisis-of-democratic-capitalism/">absolute rejections</a> of their movements.</p>
<p>Despite an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/30/politics/donald-trump-indictment/index.html">indictment for alleged financial crime</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/09/1175071486/jury-finds-trump-liable-for-sexual-abuse-in-e-jean-carrolls-civil-case">being found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case</a>, Trump is still the 2024 front-runner.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-populism-has-an-enduring-and-ominous-appeal-199065">Why populism has an enduring and ominous appeal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We can’t count on an easy institutional fix, like a grand electoral coalition to push the populists off the ballot. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey-haired round-faced man in a suit waves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban greets cheering supporters during an election night rally in Budapest, Hungary in April 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Petr David Josek)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Opponents of Hungary’s Viktor Orban formed a united front to oppose him in the country’s 2022 elections. But Orban was re-elected in a vote <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/">widely derided</a> as free but not fair. </p>
<p>Opposing coalitions are an uncertain strategy in most cases, and they don’t work at all in two-party systems. There is in fact no obvious electoral strategy for defeating populism, especially now that the far right has hacked the system.</p>
<h2>Red lights flashing</h2>
<p>We can no longer view elections as contests between the centre-right and centre-left in which undecided voters make the difference between victory and defeat. Nor can we count on the right to step back from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/opinion/democracy-authoritarianism-trump.html">abyss of culture wars</a>. We can’t even say for certain that the populism will recede in the usual cyclical manner.</p>
<p>Only decisive rejection can force the right to abandon anger and grievance, but voters are not yet turning their backs on the paranoid populists. It will take a lot of strategic ingenuity to beat them. And it will get harder to do so as they rig the game with rules designed to disenfranchise people who are young, poor or racialized. </p>
<p>All citizens can do is offer is constant, concerted pushback against the many big lies told by populists. It’s never enough, but for the time being, it’s the only way forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It will take a lot of strategic ingenuity to fight the rise of populism. And it will get harder to do so as politicians rig the game with rules designed to reduce voting.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064532023-05-31T07:08:59Z2023-05-31T07:08:59ZPoliticians love to appeal to common sense – but does it trump expertise?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529415/original/file-20230531-19-vulk3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C0%2C7068%2C3991&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Common sense is broadly defined as a shared set of beliefs and approaches to thinking about the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/crowd-people-few-individuals-highlighted-individuality-339323012">elenabsl/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Politicians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/15/suella-braverman-rails-against-experts-and-elites-in-partisan-speech">love to talk</a> about the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-dismisses-defunding-police-democrats-reform-2022-6?r=US&IR=T">benefits of</a> “common sense” – often by pitting it against the words of “experts and elites”. But what is common sense? Why do politicians love it so much? And is there any evidence that it ever trumps expertise? Psychology provides a clue.</p>
<p>We often view common sense as an authority of collective knowledge that is universal and constant, unlike expertise. By appealing to the common sense of your listeners, you therefore end up on their side, and squarely against the side of the “experts”. But this argument, like an old sock, is full of holes. </p>
<p>Experts have gained knowledge and experience in a given speciality. In which case <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272714002436?casa_token=pyUJ7ZZJaMcAAAAA:0atOGKB32iYF2lL-5Pkv23IOLWyusOIcC1ePESMnn3r6va6HclM86gyvwTO5VckHyEkPbY3XGk8A">politicians are experts</a> as well. This means a false dichotomy is created between the “them” (let’s say scientific experts) and “us” (non-expert mouthpieces of the people). </p>
<p>Common sense is broadly defined in research as a <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/1985-02740-001.pdf">shared set of beliefs and approaches</a> to thinking about the world. For example, common sense is often used to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/sources-of-guidance-on-right-and-wrong/common-sense/party-affiliation/democrat-lean-dem/">justify that what we believe is right</a> or wrong, without coming up with evidence.</p>
<p>But common sense isn’t independent of scientific and technological discoveries. Common sense versus scientific beliefs is therefore also a false dichotomy. Our “common” beliefs are <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/philosophy/philosophy-general-interest/common-sense-science-and-scepticism-historical-introduction-theory-knowledge?format=PB&isbn=9780521436250">informed by, and inform</a>, scientific and technology discoveries. </p>
<p>Take for example “the unconscious”. Regardless of who we attribute this concept to, be it Sigmund Freud, Pierre Janet or Gottfried Leibniz, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Hidden_Minds.html?id=aZqbfUpWTsMC&redir_esc=y">the unconscious</a> is a psychological idea that has entered into our collective understanding of how the mind works. It is self-evident that we have one. But we didn’t learn about this concept independently of science, medicine and philosophy. </p>
<p>The concept of the unconscious and its associated phenomena (such as implicit bias or microaggressions) has a long history of <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=fCBHEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PR10&dq=magda+osman+future+minded&ots=B6ARRZ4VV7&sig=8qPSbzoKV3W1U2jhMeyO9PM8lZo">valid scientific challenge</a>. But it gains authority in our everyday commonsensical beliefs of the mind because we can apply it to so many situations. We use it, rightly or wrongly, to attribute responsibility for actions that seem hard to explain – even blaming unlawful actions on processes outside of our conscious control. </p>
<p>The idea that common sense is universal and self-evident because it reflects the collective wisdom of experience – and so can be contrasted with scientific discoveries that are constantly changing and updated – is also false. And the same goes for the argument that non-experts tend to view the world the same way through shared beliefs, while scientists never seem to agree on anything.</p>
<p>Just as scientific discoveries change, common sense beliefs <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/4637616.pdf?casa_token=0_3YKPG7tX4AAAAA:eYzsHolN6DMaN646NmtXd__6wNYE8E8KyTbz9kgQvdH-xJFou6zuXustOI9L_0sbga6CnShTWTdBW8Uc-IrpXv2DOmmoRHbV-YvjbToeKg5EOZikiM9Xpw">change over time and across cultures</a>. They can also be contradictory: we are told “quit while you are ahead” but also “winners never quit”, and “better safe than sorry” but “nothing ventured nothing gained”.</p>
<h2>Common sense in psychology</h2>
<p>For a long time, psychology was criticised for being a trivial and low discipline – <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.ps.43.020192.000245">the science of common sense</a> – which didn’t help its standing relative to the natural sciences. But is it? It’s a question the psychologist John Houston set out to investigate in the 1980s.</p>
<p>Houston presented two different groups of non-experts in psychology with a series of multiple choice questions about standard discoveries in psychology. One group comprised <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.2466/pr0.1983.52.1.203?casa_token=fVezqocezO8AAAAA:Wy_cc5rf6P497XS0aleIAMk9KhF3a4DK-Gi6wAELFKLi5U2VBoSkh-KIfgzeBhjNKXLBQ5fI5ImPA2A">first-year undergraduate students</a> who had just started their introductory course in psychology, and the other group included <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.2466/pr0.1985.57.2.567">members of the public</a>. </p>
<p>Both groups successfully picked the right responses well above chance. The conclusions drawn from the study were that psychological research is simply conducting experiments that are mostly fruitless. Why bother running experiments to make discoveries that are self-evident to anyone relying on common sense? </p>
<p>But this isn’t a valid rebuke of the value of psychological research. Take for example the common sense, self-evident view that the more manipulated we are by others, the less free choice we have. My colleague and I have been looking into this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/cns0000308">common sense view</a>, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-will-why-people-believe-in-it-even-when-they-think-theyre-being-manipulated-196316">can’t find stong support</a> that this is true even after <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/cns0000343">ten studies</a> with over 2,400 participants and 14,000 data points.</p>
<p>This shows it is worth exploring ideas that may seem self-evident. We can never know until we run a study (unless it is rigged) that we will observe what we expect. And even if it is self-evident, scientific expertise and experimental methods help explain why some observations seem obvious. We use science to group the observations into a classification system from which further generalisations and predictions can be made. None of this can be achieved through common sense alone. </p>
<h2>Benefits and costs of the collective</h2>
<p>That said, common sense claims and beliefs can be useful. They are often a starting point for scientific investigations and hypotheses. </p>
<p>Also, there are situations, dubbed “wisdom of crowds”, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-unleash-the-wisdom-of-crowds-52774">collective thinking is better</a> than that of most individuals in a group. This is what happens when the the studio audience are polled in the “Ask the Audience” element of the show “Who Wants to be a Millionaire”. In many instances, relying on the audience is the better option than going against them. </p>
<p>But wisdom like this only works if the crowd aren’t influenced by each other’s opinion, which can be hard to achieve in everyday life. And the wisdom of crowds can be <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2014-30504-003?casa_token=mPZyRP4RjrcAAAAA:FjM7uz6cn46-ZW8cPwaHg0BRxJf-ggXuu83tuDVqfIuTHms6XIWaxCKO-1sCzWXseAGTe_MmRocCm6gJOPTaFKSaH0K-3FCT">improved</a> by being selective and relying on the collective view of the wisest group members only. Crowd-sourced wisdom also fails <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0541-6">when the members are part of an echo chamber</a> or if it leads to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=j7jXDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=wisdom+of+the+crowd++mob+rule&ots=p1H68brkwL&sig=Dzz0VYQcqCOpsqun2i-utCGkVNc">mob rule</a>.</p>
<h2>Why politicians love it</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Image of UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528553/original/file-20230526-23-n4oejq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528553/original/file-20230526-23-n4oejq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528553/original/file-20230526-23-n4oejq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528553/original/file-20230526-23-n4oejq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528553/original/file-20230526-23-n4oejq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528553/original/file-20230526-23-n4oejq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528553/original/file-20230526-23-n4oejq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman says she values common sense.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So why do politicians love talking about common sense so much? To me it seems like a convenient way to shut off doubts and questions. And this is where things get dangerous. </p>
<p>The greater the attempts to prohibit questions around a claim by appealing to common sense, the more suspicious we should all be about the claim itself. Shutting down any ability to expose a claim to scrutiny means that it is being <a href="https://www.magdaosman.com/_files/ugd/8b1381_3c8ed85dee1f4c6f802a41a07d211f33.pdf">protected from reason</a>. </p>
<p>When we ask questions we have the ability to challenge as well understand. This is necessary. If we can’t ask, we can’t learn and if we can’t learn, we can’t improve. That goes for individuals as much as society as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206453/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magda Osman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We often view common sense as an authority of collective knowledge that is universal and constant.Magda Osman, Principal Research Associate in Basic and Applied Decision Making, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049982023-05-14T11:19:04Z2023-05-14T11:19:04ZWill Europe’s right-wing populists rally behind Trump in the 2024 presidential election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525540/original/file-20230511-23-7wt5zj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C38%2C3682%2C2423&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. president Donald Trump at a campaign event in Manchester, N.H on April 27, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a controversial town hall interview on <em>CNN</em>, former United States president Donald Trump said if re-elected he would consider <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-presidential-town-hall-1.6839425">pardoning “a large portion” of the rioters</a> who were convicted for their roles in the attack on the U.S. Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>Trump announced last November that he would <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid/index.html">run again for the presidency in 2024</a>. His campaign launch came just a few weeks before the Jan. 6 House Committee finalized an <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/22/trump-capitol-riot-jan-6-committee-issues-final-report.html">845-page report</a> which included a recommendation that the U.S. Department of Justice should investigate Trump. The former president’s role in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/19/jan-6-committee-details-trump-criminal-referral-of-trump-over-capitol-riot.html">inciting or assisting an insurrection</a> figured prominently among the list of crimes committed. </p>
<p>The Capitol Hill insurrection prompted questions about the resilience of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/06/us/capitol-riot-paths-to-insurrection/">American democratic institutions</a>. </p>
<p>Since 2016, <a href="https://time.com/time-person-of-the-year-populism/">right-wing populists in Europe</a> have revered Trump as an inspiring role model and leader. However, the insurrection may have tested the resolve of his European cheerleaders.</p>
<p>Will they support Trump again in the next election? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People climb a wall. A Trump flag waves behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525539/original/file-20230511-29-aszuk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump supporters scaling the west wall of the U.S. Capitol building in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reactions to the Capitol Hill insurrection</h2>
<p>In order to answer this question, my colleagues and I studied European right-wing populists’ reactions to the Jan. 6 insurrection. <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003147565-15">Our analysis</a> focused on statements made by prominent right-wing populists shortly after the Capitol Hill riots. </p>
<p>We analyzed more than 400 statements from eight European countries, examining the rhetoric of politicians in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary and Poland. </p>
<p>Did these individuals denounce the violence? Did they see Trump as an inciter? Or did they exonerate him? </p>
<p>After the insurrection, <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-the-dutch-are-drawn-to-right-wing-populist-geert-wilders/">Geert Wilders</a>, leader of the right-wing Dutch Party for Freedom, could not hide his shock. In a <a href="https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1346948138028978177?lang=ar-x-fm">tweet</a> he stated that “the outcome of democratic elections should always be respected, whether you win or lose.” </p>
<p>The U.K.’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50565543">Nigel Farage</a>, a key leader in the Brexit movement, was also critical but referred to the those who stormed the congress as <a href="https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1346918543401615365?lang=en">“protesters</a>.” </p>
<p>Santiago Abascal, leader of the right-wing Spanish political party Vox, blamed the political left, noting that it “<a href="https://twitter.com/Santi_ABASCAL/status/1346945426969260032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">has spent years blowing up institutions, controlling the media and supporting violence throughout the West</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two men in suits shake hands on a stage. One invites the other to take the podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525538/original/file-20230511-17-7w8lnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump welcomes Nigel Farage to speak at a campaign rally during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Farage has expressed his support for Trump in the upcoming 2024 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In France, the leader of far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, also expressed her shock and said “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/7/far-right-capitol-riots">violence that aims to undermine the democratic process is unacceptable</a>.” </p>
<p>In Italy, right-wing populist <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/09/matteo-salvini-italy-populist-playbook/597298/">Matteo Salvini</a> and current prime minister <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63029909">Giorgia Meloni</a> denounced and condemned the episodes of violence in Washington without openly criticising Trump. Nicola Procaccini, a member of the European Parliament from the populist Fratelli d’Italia party, compared the rioters to a “<a href="https://www.pressreader.com/uae/khaleej-times/20210113/281724092190820">series of fanatics who in some cases border on the ridiculous, starting with that one who seemed to have come out of the Village People</a>.” </p>
<p>In Germany, Jörg Meuthen, former co-chair of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37274201">Alternative for Germany party (AFD)</a> described the events as “<a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/europes-right-wing-populists-walk-a-tightrope-after-mob-storms-the-us-capitol/">frightening, disturbing and completely out of the question</a>,” reaffirming his party’s aversion to violence and anarchy. </p>
<p>Meuthen’s party colleague Gottfried Curio downplayed the insurrection as just a “<a href="http://85.217.170.64/en/bundestag-discusses-support-for-biden-after-capitol-riots/a-56229734">demonstration that escalated</a>.” He also expressed concern that the events in Washington could be “instrumentalized to draw egregiously false comparisons” that undermine the credibility of AFD itself. </p>
<p>Hungary’s Prime Minister <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/07/right-wing-populism-thriving-hungary-france-serbia-lepen-orban/">Victor Orbán</a> invited Hungarians to refrain from passing judgement and expressed confidence in the U.S. political system’s ability to settle disputes. </p>
<p>Poland’s right-wing populists did not blame Trump for the attack on congress. Similarly to Orbán, Polish President Andrzej Duda stated the events in Washington were an “internal affair,” adding that “<a href="https://www.pap.pl/en/news/news%2C788995%2Cpoland-believes-strength-us-democracy-says-president.html">Poland believes in the strength of the American democracy</a>.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits shake hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525537/original/file-20230511-17-3vncam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Right-wing European leaders like Victor Orbán have tried to maintain a balancing act when it comes to condemning Trump and the insurrection.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Uneasy choice</h2>
<p>Our findings revealed that European right-wing populists found themselves facing the uneasy choice of either condoning an ideological ally or condemning the subversive acts at the Capitol. Some got themselves out of this quandary by denouncing the violence against the institution but leaving Trump out of it.</p>
<p>Right-wing populists across Europe faced a difficult balancing act trying to maintain a correct position on the insurrection without fully rejecting Trumpism. The varying responses revealed a cost-benefit analysis on the part of each populist leader. </p>
<p>For power-holders such as Poland’s Duda and Hungary’s Orbán, rejecting Trump was unnecessary. For power-seekers such as Meuthen or Le Pen, the political cost of remaining silent and losing votes would have been too much to bear. </p>
<p>Keeping Trump at an arm’s length is more of a pragmatic, rather than ideological, deliberation. The European populists who want to be in government can’t outright condone the insurrection. That would portray them as obstructers of the democratic process. This predicament is particularly constraining for parties like France’s <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-for-frances-national-rally-the-past-still-looms/">National Rally</a> which is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/10/how-le-pen-tried-to-soften-image-to-reach-french-election-runoff">trying to soften its image</a> after decades of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/01/marine-le-pen-rebrands-front-national-in-push-for-support">racism</a>.</p>
<p>Currently, European right-wing populists who are in power and zealously endorsed Trump’s reelection efforts are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/12/viktor-orban-ron-desantis-trump-hungary">hedging their bets</a> and cozying up to Ron DeSantis. Thus far, only Nigel Farage has showcased unwavering support for Trump and given him “<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/04/farage-trump-will-win-president/">more than a 50 per cent chance of winning</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/09/nyregion/trump-carroll-rape-trial-verdict">A New York court</a> recently found Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation. That could constitute the final nail in the coffin, resulting in populists abandoning or at least distancing themselves from Trump’s 2024 campaign.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204998/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Wagner received funding from Erasmus+, a European Union program for education, training, youth and sport in her role as a Jean Monnet Chair.
</span></em></p>The Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Congress means Trump’s European allies need to carefully gauge their support for him.Andrea Wagner, Assistant Professor, Political Science, MacEwan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2048212023-05-14T06:13:25Z2023-05-14T06:13:25ZFear and loathing in South Africa: book examines how anxiety plays out in everyday life<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524113/original/file-20230503-16-pbi6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p><em>Social scientists have <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-1994-miracle-whats-left-159495">shown</a> how freedom in South Africa has lost its meaning for many in the country. Despondency about democracy is <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-fed-up-with-their-prospects-and-their-democracy-according-to-latest-social-attitudes-survey-204566">on the rise</a> as the promise of prosperity under a caring government continues to ring hollow for many, thanks to poor governance, corruption and incompetence. Nicky Falkof is a media studies professor who researches race and anxiety. The Conversation Africa’s Thabo Leshilo spoke to her about her book, <a href="https://witspress.co.za/page/detail/Worrier-State/?K=9781776147885">Worrier State</a>, which shows how narratives of fear manifest in mainstream and digital media, and the role that ‘race’, class, gender, space and identity play in these in the country.</em></p>
<h2>What brought you to the view that fear is a dominant feature of life in South Africa today?</h2>
<p>Just life, really. I live in Johannesburg, which provides a constant illustration of what urban theorists call “<a href="https://canvas.harvard.edu/files/2658790/download?download_frd=1&verifier=tdP5dqTEesNdxLMh4I0VL2JD7tV09a69tbN88qXz">fortress architecture</a>”: the high walls, the armed response signs, the barbed wire, the spikes, the beams and the guard huts. Alongside that is the ever-more-visibly <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/news/latest-news/opinion/2022/2022-07/sas-entire-infrastructure-is-on-the-verge-of-total-collapse.html">crumbling infrastructure</a>.</p>
<p>Moving through the city is anxiety-provoking in multiple ways, even for people like me who are fortunate enough to have our own transport, and live close to where we work. As I say at the start of <a href="https://witspress.co.za/page/detail/Worrier-State/?K=9781776147885">the book</a>, my return to Joburg in 2012, after almost 15 years in the UK, was fraught with discussions with friends, family and colleagues about what I should be careful of and what to worry about. That conversational trend seems to have increased recently, with people now talking frantically about <a href="https://www.joburg.org.za/departments_/Pages/MOEs/city%20power/What-is-load-shedding.aspx">loadshedding</a> (power cuts) and water outages as well as crime and corruption.</p>
<p>So, while a lot of other emotions make up the country’s affective landscape – South Africans are frequently joyful people – it seems to me that fear and anxiety are significant elements of what it feels like to live here. I believe that these kinds of emotional experiences, which are part of rather than supplementary to urban life, need to be thought and written about.</p>
<h2>What are the main ways this fear manifests itself?</h2>
<p>Fear has important consequences for how people vote, what they spend their money on, who they consider to be part of their communities and who they treat as outsiders. Pretty much all the major political parties in this country use <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/police-probe-under-fire-da-councillor-john-hayes-for-racist-facebook-post-e476dc59-6e8d-4a4c-8a61-7eb5b9971df6">racist</a> and <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2022-04-18-anc-speaks-with-forked-tongue-on-xenophobia/">xenophobic</a> dog-whistle tactics to frighten the population with the threat of loss of jobs, increased violence or even just feeling uncomfortable due to the presence of strangers. Media coverage of these political activations of collective anxiety distracts voters from the multiple failures of the political class by amplifying the sense that citizens are under threat from outsiders. </p>
<p>The design and management of South Africa’s cities are significantly affected by fear. This can be seen in the <a href="http://thehda.co.za/index.php/multimedia/single-media-statement/apartheid-spatial-planning">apartheid-era planning</a> of Joburg and <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/place/soweto-johannesburg">Soweto</a>, the sprawling black settlement south-west of the city. Soweto was intentionally located to keep poorer black labourers away from “white” areas. These historical scars of segregation persist today. People have to travel for hours from <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/applied-and-social-sciences-magazines/townships">townships</a> – historically black residential areas – and predominantly black <a href="https://pmg.org.za/page/Informal%20Settlements">informal settlements</a> to get to their jobs, because frightened middle class residents <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-johannesburgs-suburban-elites-maintain-apartheid-inequities-169295">push back</a> against affordable housing or even just accessible taxi ranks in their areas. </p>
<p>Fear makes us suspicious and distrustful. This often draws on disturbing stereotypes about “race”, nationality and economic status. For example, in the chapter on township fear of crime, I discuss the automatic association of criminal drug dealers with people simplistically referred to as “Nigerians”, one of the major folk devils of contemporary South Africa. Dangerous street drugs like <a href="https://theconversation.com/drug-addiction-in-south-africa-what-was-learned-from-six-young-men-recovering-from-opioids-191524">nyaope</a> are rife throughout the country. They are sold and used widely by South Africans and other nationals. But Nigerians are often scapegoated as the “real” drug dealers, solely responsible for this ongoing crisis. </p>
<p>Similarly in the chapter on Melville, the suburb where I live, I show how middle class residents use the neighbourhood Facebook group to classify homeless people and informal workers such as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/DQrXvg35BeuCrQ9feQ2y/full">car guards</a> as dangerous and threatening. Discussions within this digital community are rife with assumptions that poorer black men are criminals, and don’t belong on the streets of the suburb. </p>
<h2>Do you think the fear will pass?</h2>
<p>Honestly? I wouldn’t think so, no. One of the points I make in the <a href="https://witspress.co.za/page/detail/Worrier-State/?K=9781776147885">book</a> is that cultures of fear, while extraordinarily visible and racialised in South Africa, are not at all unique to this country. The general increase in fear and anxiety is a global condition which has to do with a number of factors. These include the explosion of digital technology and corresponding transmission of misinformation; the alienating conditions of late capitalism, in which power and money are diffuse and distant; people’s increasing senses of powerlessness given these circumstances; and global phenomena like climate change that do actually pose a significant threat, but that feel unmanageably vast. </p>
<p>The rise of <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/updates/LSE-IDEAS-Understanding-Global-Rise-of-Populism.pdf">populist</a> and racially supremacist politics – such as that of the Donald Trump-supporting meta-conspiracy <a href="https://theconversation.com/qanon-is-spreading-outside-the-us-a-conspiracy-theory-expert-explains-what-that-could-mean-198272">QAnon</a> – is an important barometer of how worried people are. It also suggests how eagerly we cling to something that might help us to define and explain the many threats we feel subjected to. </p>
<p>And of course South Africa <em>is</em> actually more <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/new-sa-crime-trends-are-bleak-but-at-least-we-have-the-data">insecure, riskier</a>, than many other places, which, alongside the swings of global social change, suggests that fear and anxiety will be a part of the country’s inner and public lives for the foreseeable future. </p>
<p>I realise that this is a fairly bleak assessment, but I also think that it’s important for scholars, government and civil society to start taking emotion seriously as a political and social force. How people feel really matters, and if people feel bad or threatened – even if nothing bad or threatening has happened to them directly – they will struggle to be engaged citizens, to interact with empathy or to think collectively. Acknowledging the power of fear and emotion is a first step in trying to work our way through this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204821/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicky Falkof has received funding from the National Research Foundation and the African Humanities Programme. </span></em></p>Fear has important consequences for how people vote, what they spend their money on, who they consider to be part of their communities, and who they treat as outsiders.Nicky Falkof, Associate professor, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2048052023-05-04T21:32:15Z2023-05-04T21:32:15ZWe must all speak out to stop anti-LGBTQ legislation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524190/original/file-20230503-1198-6blxj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C57%2C7670%2C5078&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People gathered at West Texas A&M University in Canyon, Tex. on March 21, 2023 to protest the university president's decision to cancel a drag show on campus.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Michael Cuviello/Amarillo Globe-News via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/we-must-all-speak-out-to-stop-anti-lgbtq-legislation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Anti-LGBTQ sentiments have become increasingly toxic and more prevalent around the world. From the United States to Europe and East Africa, right-wing state and federal governments are introducing legislation and social policies targeting LGBTQ people.</p>
<p>The backlash against LGBTQ communities and <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/human-rights-are-under-attack-who-will-protect-them/">human rights</a> is global in scale and appears to be gaining momentum. There are <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiewareham/2023/04/07/new-maps-show-where-its-illegal-to-be-lgbtq-in-2023/?sh=66998e677eaa">64 countries</a> in the world where being LGBTQ is considered a crime, including six countries where it is punishable by death. </p>
<p>Canada is not immune to the rise in anti-LGBTQ sentiment in other parts of the world. In the coming years, we will need to be even more vigilant in protecting and advancing LGBTQ rights in our own country.</p>
<h2>Rights under attack</h2>
<p>Far-right governments and populist movements are becoming more emboldened across the world. There is a direct correlation between the erosion of human rights and increasing hate crimes and violence targeting the LGBTQ community. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trans-rights-and-political-backlash-five-key-moments-in-history-187476">Trans rights and political backlash: five key moments in history</a>
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<p>In the U.S., there are now more than 650 <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/03/31/650-anti-lgbtq-bills-introduced-us/11552357002/">anti-LGBTQ bills</a> that have been introduced in state legislatures designed to roll back the human and civil rights of LGBTQ communities. </p>
<p>In Florida, at least <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/education/3939606-advocates-plan-for-battle-as-desantis-preps-dont-say-gay-expansion/">10 anti-LGBTQ bills</a> are under consideration. Many of these backwards measures seek to block children from accessing <a href="https://theconversation.com/transgender-youth-on-puberty-blockers-and-gender-affirming-hormones-have-lower-rates-of-depression-and-suicidal-thoughts-a-new-study-finds-177812">life-saving gender-affirming care</a>, criminalize parents for supporting their transgender and non-binary children, censor LGBTQ-inclusive books and prohibit teaching about sexual and gender diversity.</p>
<p>Other bills have sought to protect <a href="https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2023/02/10/nebraska-lawmaker-renews-bill-to-protect-physicians-right-of-conscience/">conscience rights</a>, which allow discrimination against LGBTQ people seeking services. Several U.S. states have also introduced laws prohibiting <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/transgender-athletes-ban-kansas-states-b2315626.html">transgender athletes</a> from participating in female sports. A new <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/14/drag-shows-republican-bills-bans/">slate of bills</a> are now targeting public drag performances as a form of child endangerment in more than a dozen states.</p>
<p>Anti-LGBTQ rhetoric is often couched within <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/06/how-targeting-lgbtq-rights-are-part-authoritarian-playbook">tropes of protecting children</a>, promoting parental rights, and defending religious freedoms as the basis for attacking minority rights and liberal values.</p>
<p>Recently, with losses mounting in the Ukraine war, Russian President Vladimir Putin intensified his attacks on LGBTQ people by approving <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/05/europe/russia-lgbtq-propaganda-law-signed-by-putin-intl/index.html">new legislation</a> making it illegal to spread so-called propaganda concerning “non-traditional sexual relations.” This essentially outlaws any public events, performances or communication about LGBTQ identities or communities.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/uganda-parliament-passes-mostly-unchanged-version-anti-lgbtq-bill-2023-05-02/">Ugandan parliament</a> has introduced some of the most regressive anti-LGBTQ legislation in the world. It proposes the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality” and a life sentence for promoting and funding of same-sex activities.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ugandas-anti-homosexuality-bill-wants-to-rehabilitate-lgbtiq-people-african-psychologists-warn-of-its-dangers-204431">Uganda's anti-homosexuality bill wants to 'rehabilitate' LGBTIQ+ people – African psychologists warn of its dangers</a>
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<p>Other African nations such as <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/23/why-are-kenya-and-uganda-cracking-down-on-lgbtq-rights">Kenya</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/29/africa/ghana-softens-lgbtq-stance-intl/index.html">Ghana</a> are now drafting similar laws. This offensive against African LGBTQ communities has largely been fuelled by <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/19/africa-uganda-evangelicals-homophobia-antigay-bill/">American evangelicals</a> who have spent years radicalizing local citizens to reject Western influences and protect so-called family values.</p>
<p>This growing anti-LGBTQ backlash has also been witnessed in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/lgbt-rights-under-attack-in-brazil-under-new-far-right-president/2019/02/17/b24e1dcc-1b28-11e9-b8e6-567190c2fd08_story.html">Brazil</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/anti-lgbt-ideology-zones-are-being-enacted-in-polish-towns">Poland</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2022/7/12/photos-thousands-march-in-romania-as-law-censoring-lgbtq-looms">Romania</a>. Recently, Italy’s new right-wing government moved to <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/italian-government-limits-parental-rights-of-gay-couples-1.6312851">restrict adoption rights for same-sex parents</a>, citing the need to protect “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/18/protests-in-italy-as-government-restricts-same-sex-parent-rights">natural families</a>.”</p>
<h2>Backlash in Canada</h2>
<p>Given this rising tide of global hate, we should not be complacent in believing anti-LGBTQ backlash will not happen in Canada. On the contrary, it has already started. <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9393280/canada-lgbtq-hate-trans-west-block/">Police-reported hate crimes</a> targeting people based on sexual orientation have <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230322/dq230322a-eng.htm">grown significantly</a> over the past three years, increasing by nearly 60 per cent between 2019-2021. </p>
<p>Attacks against drag queen storytime events have swept across the country, with <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-anti-gay-activists-target-childrens-libraries-and-drag-queen-story/">protests</a> in more than a dozen cities. Some community organizers have cancelled events based on fears for the safety of parents and the already-vulnerable LGBTQ children these events are trying to support.</p>
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<p>With rising LGBTQ visibility comes increased hate. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/social-media-platforms-fail-to-stop-lgbtq-hate-speech-according-to-glaad-report">Social media</a> has become a toxic breeding ground for discrimination with old and tired stereotypes now being recycled to new and eager audiences. </p>
<p>The odious term “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/11/1096623939/accusations-grooming-political-attack-homophobic-origins">groomer</a>” is now utilized as a shorthand linking LGBTQ communities to pedophilia; gay-straight alliances are labelled as ideological <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ideological-sexual-clubs-alberta-gay-straight-alliance-law-faces-court-challenge-1.4712581">sex clubs</a> in schools; <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/lgbtq-rights/four-myths-about-trans-athletes-debunked">transgender athletes</a> are viewed as the ruin of competitive sports; teaching about sexual and gender diversity is positioned as a form of <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/whats-driving-the-push-to-restrict-schools-on-lgbtq-issues/2022/04">indoctrination</a>; and drag queen storytime is equated with sexualizing vulnerable children.</p>
<h2>Countering hate</h2>
<p>We get the communities we are willing to build. Now is the time for community, corporate and political leaders to speak out and denounce anti-LGBTQ actions and rhetoric. </p>
<p>Ask your elected officials to enact legislation that protects the safety, health and well-being of LGBTQ communities. Calgary’s new <a href="https://www.calgary.ca/content/www/en/home/bylaws/safe-and-inclusive-access-bylaw.html">Safe & Inclusive Access Bylaw</a> provides an excellent example of how to balance freedom of speech and the right of assembly with community safety and civic participation. </p>
<p>Similarly, Ontario MPPs have introduced a new <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-94">private members’ bill</a> to prohibit acts of intimidation within 100 meters of identified 2SLGBTQI+ community safety zones. The bill also calls for the creation of a provincial 2SLGBTQI+ Safety Advisory Committee to help improve community safety and prevent hate crimes.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/05/un-experts-urge-religious-leaders-show-respect-and-compassion-lgbt-persons">Religious leaders</a> also need to speak out and demonstrate how faith can be welcoming, affirming and supportive of LGBTQ identities. Religion should not be allowed to become <a href="https://www.pfaw.org/report/who-is-weaponizing-religious-liberty/">weaponized</a> by far-right extremists as a conduit for hate and bigotry.</p>
<p>Collectively, all of us need to unite and prevent vulnerable communities from being silenced and intimidated by hate. We must loudly communicate that hate can have no place on our streets and in our communities.</p>
<p>If there are protests against drag queen storytime in your community, host more drag queen storytime events by partnering with your public library, <a href="https://united-church.ca/sites/default/files/why-become-an-affirming-ministry.pdf">affirming congregations</a> and local LGBTQ community groups.</p>
<p>As community members, we also need to question and ask where our elected representatives stand on the issue of defending LGBTQ human rights. Do not accept silence as an answer. Get your elected leaders on the public record and hold them accountable for their words and actions.</p>
<p>Another crucial step is for each of us to speak out, become more actively involved and get out and vote. If you are a member of the LGBTQ community, consider running in the next election for your local school board, municipal, provincial or federal government.</p>
<p>We must become part of the democratic process if we are to change it. It is harder to discriminate against the LGBTQ community when you are sitting across from us at the decision-making table.</p>
<p>Visibility and representation matter. Hate flourishes in the vacuum of silence. If we are to truly build an inclusive democracy, we can’t be afraid to actively protect and defend it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204805/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristopher Wells holds the Canada Research Chair for the Public Understanding of Sexual and Gender Minority Youth, which is funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Anti-LGBT sentiments are on the rise around the world, and Canada is not immune to the tide. Now is the time for us to speak out and denounce anti-LGBTQ actions and rhetoric.Kristopher Wells, Associate Professor, Faculty of Health and Community Studies, MacEwan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041832023-04-27T20:17:48Z2023-04-27T20:17:48ZFriday essay: Stan Grant on how tyrants use the language of germ warfare – and COVID has enabled them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522488/original/file-20230424-22-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C3020%2C2269&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Uighur woman protests before a group of paramilitary police in western China's Xinjiang region.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ng Han Guan/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is 2019. There is a virus lurking in China. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is warning that if it is not contained, it could infect the entire country. It could turn the country upside down. Tear at the social fabric. The CCP’s dream of harmony cannot withstand this. So they tell their people: this must be wiped out. Memories are too fresh in China of what happens when things spiral out of control.</p>
<p>China is a nation that barely hangs together. Throughout time, empires have risen and fallen. Bloodshed beyond imagining – on a scale almost unseen in human history – marks each turn in China’s fate. </p>
<p>The hundred years between the mid-19th century and the Communist Revolution in 1949 were brutal. The Opium Wars with Britain, the fall of the Qing, the Taiping Rebellion, the Boxer Rebellion, the civil war between nationalists and communists, the Japanese occupation – tens of millions were slaughtered.</p>
<p>The CCP knows it should fear its own. It knows what happens when people rise up. The party seeks stability, but stability can only come with force and threats. Nothing can be tolerated that strays too far from the reach of the party.</p>
<p>Now, a virus is loose. In 2019, the world is not watching. Not really. Some warn of what is happening, what is to come. But who listens? It is too far away. We are trading with China and we grow rich as China grows rich.</p>
<p>So, the Communist Party goes to work in secret. It is rounding up people infected with the virus. It is locking them away in secret facilities. Prisons. Isolating them. Choking off the virus at its source. Nothing short of elimination will do.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-who-are-the-uyghurs-and-why-is-the-chinese-government-detaining-them-111843">Explainer: who are the Uyghurs and why is the Chinese government detaining them?</a>
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<h2>An ideological virus</h2>
<p>This virus has a name. Uighur. Many, if not most, in the West cannot spell it. Nor can they pronounce it. Uighurs. Muslims. A people in the outer western regions of this vast country. People who have been yearning to be free. Who speak their own language. Practise their culture. Pray to their god.</p>
<p>They are a virus. At least, that’s what the CCP calls them.</p>
<p>The Communist Party transmits “health warnings”. As reported by Sigal Samuel <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/%2008/china-pathologizing-uighur-muslims-mental-illness/568525/">in The Atlantic</a>, and <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/infected-08082018173807.html">translated</a> by Radio Free Asia, it aims them at Uighurs via WeChat, a popular social media platform in China:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Members of the public who have been chosen for re-education have been infected by an ideological illness. They have been infected with religious extremism and violent terrorist ideology, and therefore they must seek treatment from a hospital as an inpatient […] The religious extremist ideology is a type of poisonous medicine, which confuses the mind of the people […] If we do not eradicate religious extremism at its roots, the violent terrorist incidents will grow and spread all over like an incurable malignant tumour. </p>
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<p>In 2018, Human Rights Watch released a report, titled <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2018/09/10/eradicating-ideological-viruses/chinas-campaign-repression-against-xinjiangs">Eradicating Ideological Viruses</a>. The warnings are there. Even if the world is slow to wake to them. The report says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Perhaps the most innovative – and disturbing – of the repressive measures in Xinjiang is the government’s use of high-tech mass surveillance systems. Xinjiang authorities conduct compulsory mass collection of biometric data, such as voice samples and DNA, and use artificial intelligence and big data to identify, profile and track everyone in Xinjiang. <br></p>
<p>The authorities have envisioned these systems as a series of “filters”, picking out people with certain behaviour or characteristics that they believe indicate a threat to the Communist Party’s rule in Xinjiang. These systems have also enabled authorities to implement fine-grained control, subjecting people to differentiated restrictions depending on their perceived levels of “trustworthiness”. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Uighur Abudwaris Ablimit points to a photo of his brother during a gathering to raise awareness about loved ones who have disappeared in China’s far west.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christina Larson/AP</span></span>
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<p>Note the language. Biometric data. Voice sampling. DNA. This is ideological and it is biological. People are treated as viruses that transmit illness. If not stopped, they will threaten us all, is the message.</p>
<p>Human Rights Watch says in the name of stability and security, authorities will “strike at” those deemed terrorists and extremists, to rid the country of the “problematic ideas” of Turkic Muslims. Not just Muslims, but anyone not expressing the majority ethnic Han identity. As Human Rights Watch says: “Authorities insist that such beliefs and affinities must be ‘corrected’ or ‘eradicated’.”</p>
<p>This is not new. What the CCP is doing is what other tyrannical regimes have done. They seek to create what’s been called a “harmony of souls”. They want nothing less than to produce the perfect, subdued, sublimated human. Compliant. Passive. </p>
<p>In the words of Joseph Stalin: “The production of souls is more important than the production of tanks.” Historian Timothy Snyder says the Nazi and Soviet regimes turned people into numbers. And tyrants everywhere have used the language of germ warfare. They define their enemies as diseases or infections and they seek to inoculate their own societies.</p>
<p>Authoritarian regimes seek to sterilise and “purify” society. Listen to them.</p>
<p>Stalin’s henchman <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vyacheslav-Molotov">Vyacheslav Molotov</a> spoke of purging or assassinating people who “had to be isolated” or, he said, they “would spread all kinds of complaints, and society would have been infected”.</p>
<p>The architect of Hitler’s Holocaust, Heinrich Himmler, in sending millions to the gas chambers, <a href="https://www.museumoftolerance.com/education/teacher-resources/holocaust-resources/what-is-holocaust-denial.html">said</a> he was exterminating “a bacterium because we do not want in the end to be infected by a bacterium and die of it”. He said: “I will not see so much as a small area of sepsis appear here or gain a hold. Wherever it may form, we will cauterise it.”</p>
<p>And then there is Adolf Hitler, who compared himself to the famed German microbiologist <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/1905/koch/biographical/">Robert Koch</a> who found the bacillus of tuberculosis. Hitler said, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I discovered the Jews as the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/27387/chapter-abstract/197176732">bacillus and ferment</a> of all social decomposition. And I have proved one thing: that a state can live without Jews.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>To Hitler, Jewish people were “no longer human beings”. He described the Holocaust as a “surgical task”, “otherwise Europe will perish through the Jewish disease”.</p>
<p>It is no mistake these regimes use the language of virus, disease and contamination. Just as a virus is to be eradicated, so too people are to be removed, eliminated or exterminated. These attitudes do not belong to a time past. There are leaders today who exploit the same fears, who focus on difference and create division using the same language of disease.</p>
<p>Remember what Donald Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/06/donald-trump-mexican-immigrants-tremendous-infectious-disease">said</a> of Mexican immigrants? That they are responsible for “tremendous infectious diseases pouring across the border”.</p>
<p>And in China, the Communist Party <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaked-documents-on-uighur-detention-camps-in-china-an-expert-explains-the-key-revelations-127221">has locked up</a> a million Uighur Muslims in “re-education camps”, where human rights groups say they are brainwashed with Communist Party ideology. A virus to be eradicated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/un-report-on-chinas-abuse-of-uyghurs-is-stronger-than-expected-but-missing-a-vital-word-genocide-189917">UN report on China's abuse of Uyghurs is stronger than expected but missing a vital word: genocide</a>
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<h2>Virus of tyranny</h2>
<p>The virus of tyranny has haunted our world. Albert Camus warned us of this in his novel <a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-albert-camus-the-plague-134244">The Plague</a>: the story of a rat-borne disease that overruns an entire city. His was a bleak vision of death and fear, of a city sealed off and a people locked down, then shot when they tried to escape. </p>
<p>Written in 1947, just two years after World War II, when the West was still celebrating the victory of freedom, Camus’s plague is an allegory of authoritarianism.</p>
<p>Camus wanted to tell us of the courage that swells within us, that when the plague was at its worst, brave people fought against it. But he cautioned us, too, that the plague can return. It is “a bacillus that never dies or disappears for good”, but bides its time “slumbering in furniture and linen”. It waits patiently “in bedrooms, cellars; trunks, handkerchiefs, old papers”, until one day it will rouse again. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Engraving of a plague doctor in 17th-century Rome.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Furst/Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In coronavirus, tyranny may have found the perfect host: a fearful population and all-powerful government. French philosopher Michel Foucault long ago made the link between the plagues of the 17th century and authoritarian control. </p>
<p>Behind state-imposed discipline, <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/discipline-and-punish-9780241386019">he wrote</a>, “can be read the haunting memory of contagions”: not just the memory of a virus but of rebellion, crime, all forms of social disorder, where people “appear and disappear, live and die”. It is the state that brings order to the fear: “everyone locked up in his cage, everyone at his window, answering to his name and showing himself when asked”. </p>
<p>In the response to the plague, Foucault saw the forerunner of the modern prison: the panopticon; the all-seeing eye.</p>
<p>The plague-stricken village, <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/discipline-and-punish-9780241386019">wrote Foucault</a>, is </p>
<blockquote>
<p>traversed throughout with hierarchy, surveillance, observation, writing; the town immobilised by the functioning of an extensive power that bears in a distinct way over all individual bodies – this is the utopia of the perfectly governed city.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The coronavirus shutdowns remind us freedom is the province of the state. The crisis has centralised government control. Around the world, governments have used physical and biological surveillance to control the pandemic. To eradicate the virus.</p>
<p>We have all become, to varying degrees, a little bit like China.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-albert-camus-the-plague-134244">Guide to the Classics: Albert Camus' The Plague</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A strange illness in Wuhan</h2>
<p>Coronavirus emerges out of China in the dying months of 2019. I remember reporting on it. A strange illness is being detected in the city of Wuhan. Dozens of people are being treated for pneumonia-like symptoms. In January 2020, there is the <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19">first reported death</a>. Then quickly, deaths in Europe, the United States, South Korea, Japan, Thailand.</p>
<p>We are still so blasé. It feels so far away. We have seen this before, haven’t we? SARS, swine flu, Ebola. They come and they go. Life goes on. We go to the beach. We get on planes. We have parties. And if we have a cough or feel a bit under the weather, we most likely still go to work.</p>
<p>We don’t realise what is happening. I am <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/2020-24-02/11983216">on ABC’s Q+A program</a> in February 2020. Footage is shown of lockdown in Wuhan. People are barricaded in their apartments while police forcibly remove and restrain. The audience is appalled.</p>
<p>It couldn’t happen here, could it? An epidemiologist on the panel says, actually, yes. We have laws to allow for just these extreme emergency measures. Surely though, we agree, it isn’t likely.</p>
<p>On the same program is China’s deputy ambassador to Australia, Wang Xining. Minister Wang, as he is known, is an old acquaintance. A sparring partner. When I was based in China for CNN, he was my minder. He was appointed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to watch everything that I did.</p>
<p>In China I was arrested and detained, taken to Chinese police cells for doing stories the authorities did not approve of. I was, on several occasions, physically attacked and beaten. My family was under constant surveillance. Now the man responsible was sitting next to me in an ABC studio.</p>
<p>In the audience, a Uighur man asks a question. He was separated from his wife and child. He had come to Australia ahead of them, hoping to settle and secure visas so they could follow. He didn’t know where they were. He had family in the Chinese “re-education” camps. He was clearly worried.</p>
<p>Minster Wang defends the China COVID lockdown. And he defends the lockdown – soon to be called the genocide – of the Uighurs.</p>
<p>In this moment were twinned the two crises – the two “viruses” – threatening our world. COVID-19 threatened our health. Soon, we would indeed follow China’s lead and introduce lockdowns. And the virus of tyranny was spreading.</p>
<p>In 2020, as COVID crossed borders, so, too, did tyranny. Liberal democracy was in retreat. Freedom House, which measures the health of democracy, <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege">now counted</a> 15 straight years of democratic decline. From the post–Cold War boom, freedom was now being crushed.</p>
<p>Within democracies, too, people were falling under the sway of autocrats and demagogues. This had been a slow burn. Growing inequality, war-fuelled refugee crises and a blowback against globalisation had eroded trust. The poor and left-behind felt abandoned.</p>
<p>The devil dances in empty pockets. From the early 2000s, anti-immigration attitudes grew. Racial division became even more stark. Far-right parties made a comeback in Europe as barbed wire went back up on borders. People wanted their countries back and they were primed for populists. Türkiye’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-20-year-rule-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan-has-transformed-turkey-188211">Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a>, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, India’s
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pressure-builds-on-indias-narendra-modi-is-his-government-trying-to-silence-its-critics-159799">Narendra Modi</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-philippines-is-set-for-a-fiery-election-even-without-any-dutertes-at-least-for-now-169535">Rodrigo Duterte</a> in the Philippines, Brazil’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-now-for-brazil-president-lula-strengthened-but-bolsonaro-supporters-wont-go-quietly-197530">Jair Bolsonaro</a> – all would come to power. Each spouted easy solutions to complex problems. Each divided to conquer.</p>
<p>Into the picture came a political circus act. A Manhattan real estate billionaire and reality television star. Donald Trump styled himself as the anti-politician. He promised to “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-drain-the-swamp/2020/10/24/52c7682c-0a5a-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html">drain the swamp</a>” and “make America great again”. Eight years of the first Black president of the United States, Barack Obama, ended in 2016 <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-victory-will-mean-the-end-of-us-soft-power-68654">with the election</a> of a man who exploited racism.</p>
<p>To populists, COVID-19 initially was a boon. They seized on it to strengthen their grip on their countries. This was the state of the world in 2020, when the virus took hold. This was a perfect storm. A virus that robbed us of our freedom just as democracy was imploding and freedom was in retreat. And China was proudly boasting that its authoritarianism was ascendant.</p>
<p>If the 20th century was a triumph of democracy, the 21st century, to China’s Xi Jinping, would crown the China dream.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kafkaesque-true-stories-of-ordinary-people-inside-the-first-days-of-covid-19-in-wuhan-china-180039">'Kafkaesque' true stories of ordinary people: inside the first days of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Plagues, political repression and violence</h2>
<p>Plagues have historically been a harbinger of political repression and violence. The Spanish flu after World War I <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/1918-flu-pandemic-boosted-support-for-the-nazis-fed-study-claims.html">contributed to</a> the rise of the extreme right in Germany. The Black Death in the 14th century <a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-black-death">unleashed violence</a> against Jews.</p>
<p>Sydney University Professor of Jurisprudence Wojciech Sadurski, in his book <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/pandemic-of-populists/E75407A3309F868636BBA65F9F1ED783">A Pandemic of Populists</a>, says COVID has been a “powerful accelerator of many of the pre-existing trends, both negative and positive, in business, culture and politics”. </p>
<p>Populist leaders declared states of emergency and, as Sadurski writes, pushed them “well beyond the limits of the necessary”. Viktor Orbán <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-europe/how-viktor-orban-used-the-coronavirus-to-seize-more-power">set aside parliament</a>. He was a one-man government. People critical of him could be arrested. In <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation_in_the_Philippines">the Philippines</a>, as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/17/fake-news-real-arrests/">in India</a>, police were given powers to detain anyone “spreading misinformation” or inciting mistrust.</p>
<p>Sadurski points out that, in most cases, these authoritarian leaders used militaristic language. Fighting COVID was a war. The people were conscripted.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán set aside parliament and became a one-man government during COVID. He’s pictured here with medical supplies flown from China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tomas Kovacs/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Xi Jinping is not a populist leader. He doesn’t seek legitimacy at the ballot box. He is an authoritarian. And he believes his system is better. To Xi, the battle against coronavirus is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/02/13/805760466/china-declares-peoples-war-on-covid-19-including-reporting-family-and-friends">also a war</a>: a “people’s war”.</p>
<p>It has been a war without end. Xi cannot allow the virus to win. Long after lockdowns passed elsewhere, Xi continued to keep a stranglehold on COVID flares. It has weakened the economy. It is straining nerves. People are angry. There have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/protests-against-strict-covid-zero-policy-are-sweeping-china-its-anyones-guess-what-happens-now-195442">protests</a>. Some are even calling for Xi to go.</p>
<p>But Xi has strengthened his grip. By <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/26/asia/china-xi-jinping-president-intl/index.html">altering the constitution</a> and scrapping two-term presidential limits, he is now leader for life. Under cover of fighting COVID, he has used <a href="https://melbourneasiareview.edu.au/covid-19-and-the-rise-of-the-surveillance-state-in-china/">enhanced surveillance</a> and tracking technology to peer into every part of people’s lives. The COVID crackdown <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00829/">coincided</a> with crushing democracy in Hong Kong. He has arrested dissidents. Silenced rivals. He is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/china-ready-fight-after-3-days-large-scale/story?id=98494152#:%7E:text=TAIPEI%2C%20Taiwan%20%2D%2D%20China's,McCarthy%20in%20the%20United%20States.">threatening</a> war on Taiwan.</p>
<p>And Uighurs remain a target. Still a “virus” to be eliminated.</p>
<h2>A hinge point of history</h2>
<p>We are at a hinge point of history. Thirty years after the end of the Cold War, there is <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/06/sliding-toward-a-new-cold-war">talk</a> of Cold War 2.0. The United States is staring down a new rival: China. We are witnessing a return of great power rivalry. It is a supercharged great power rivalry. </p>
<p>China is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-soviet-union-containment-polarization-foreign-policy-11639526097">more powerful</a> today than the Soviet Union was then, and the United States is unquestionably diminished. America is politically fractured, it is deeply divided along racial and class lines; it has <a href="https://theconversation.com/american-exceptionalism-the-poison-that-cannot-protect-its-children-from-violent-death-184045">an epidemic</a> of gun violence and it has been devastated by coronavirus.</p>
<p>Donald Trump thought he was bigger than COVID. He was slow to act, he was dismissive and his populism was eventually revealed as reckless. Yes, he fast-tracked vaccine research and production. But he was a master of mixed messaging and so much damage was done. At the time of writing, in the United States there have been more than <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/28/us-records-100-million-covid-cases-but-more-than-200-million-americans-have-probably-had-it.html#:%7E:text=The%20U.S.%20has%20officially%20recorded,even%20more%20difficult%20to%20control.">100 million cases</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/1-million-us-covid-deaths-effects">one million deaths</a>. The only country to reach that number. Trump lost office.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump thought he was bigger than COVID – and lost office.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">zz/Dennis Van Tine/STAR MAX/IPx/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast, Xi Jinping is entrenched in power. The country where COVID first emerged is the world’s biggest engine of economic growth. It is on track <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/12/06/china-and-india-will-overtake-us-economically-by-2075-goldman-sachs-economists-say/?sh=3f8d5a358ea9">to usurp the United States</a> as the single biggest economy in the world. It is extending its influence and economic reach via the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf">Belt and Road Initiative</a>, the biggest investment and infrastructure program the world has ever seen.</p>
<p>Xi is building an army to match his economic might. And he is leading the way on artificial intelligence research. The numbers tell the story. In the 20 years between 1997 and 2017, China’s global share of research papers <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/china-rises-first-place-most-cited-papers">increased</a> from just over 4 per cent to nearly 28 per cent. And what is it focusing on? Speech and image recognition. The Chinese Communist Party can track anyone, anywhere, anytime.</p>
<p>Technology was meant to liberate us. Some saw the death knell for authoritarian regimes. How can you control the internet? But China has. Cyberspace has become a tool of tyranny. China has taken the digital age and put it in service of genocide.</p>
<p>There are lessons here for journalists. Our job is not to simply report events, it is to connect them. To join the dots. To reveal the big forces at play in our world. We missed this opportunity.</p>
<p>We cannot understand the COVID pandemic and its impact without understanding the currents shaping our world. COVID emerged out of China at a time when Xi Jinping had his eyes on global supremacy. He had shown how far he would be prepared to go to “harmonise” the nation. He had trialled his lockdown measures on what he callously called the “virus” of the Uighurs. </p>
<p>Around the world, democracy was in retreat and authoritarianism on the march. And now a virus was spreading that would attack the liberal democratic West where it believed it was strongest: its freedom.</p>
<p>Media can so easily be overwhelmed by events. One of the most common failings – particularly of television – is to report what we see, not what it means. Images can drive coverage. And images of people in white suits locking down entire cities obscured what was even more important. COVID was a 21st-century virus; a virus of a globalised world, of high-speed travel and borderless trade. It was also a virus of an increasingly authoritarian world.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic was a stress test. It revealed and accelerated fault lines already there. Populists were stripped bare. Their slogans, easy answers and arrogance meant they were slow to act. Millions died who might otherwise have lived. In strong democracies where there is trust in science and authority, countries emerged stronger. Yet they, too, walked a fine line between surrendering liberty and saving lives.</p>
<p>In China, Xi Jinping believes the People’s War is <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/china-declares-victory-over-both-the-coronavirus-and-critics-of-the-communist-party-at-the-biggest-political-event-of-the-year">a victory</a> for the Communist Party. The Party – the all-seeing eye – can control everything. It sits at the heart of everything. Xi believes he is the fulfilment of prophecy. The man who follows the great leaders, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. The one who delivers on China’s greatness.</p>
<p>Xi walks a tightrope, too. He has strained the nation to breaking point. The relentless, cruel lockdowns have slowed the economy and crushed the spirit of Chinese people. And they are angry and rising. China, like the rest of the world, is also reaching a tipping point.</p>
<p>In December 2022, Xi felt the pressure from the Chinese people, following mass demonstrations and unrest, and lifted the lockdowns abruptly. COVID quickly ran rampant. However, though the COVID lockdowns have ended, the Uighurs continue to suffer.</p>
<p>The virus of tyranny sleeps within democracy, too. It has always been in our bloodstream. China has edged us, the democracies, closer to what political scientist Vladimir Tismaneanu <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520282209/the-devil-in-history">has called</a> “the age of total administration and inescapable alienation”.</p>
<p>The COVID pandemic has passed, at least as a political crisis. Our minds are turned now to <a href="https://theconversation.com/essentialising-russia-wont-end-the-war-against-ukraine-might-real-and-credible-force-be-the-answer-195938">war in Ukraine</a> and economic strife. But journalists must remember that, as in contagions past, COVID will shape us. It leaves behind the trace of tyranny. And that is the true virus. The virus that will not die.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from <a href="https://publishing.monash.edu/product/pandemedia/">Panemedia: How Covid Changed Journalism</a> (Monash University Press).</em></p>
<p><em>This essay was originally written in November 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stan Grant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s Xi Xinping had trialled his COVID lockdown measures on what he callously called the ‘virus’ of the Uighurs, writes Stan Grant. COVID lockdowns are now over, but the trace of tyranny remains.Stan Grant, Vice Chancellors Chair Australian/Indigenous Belonging, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2025542023-04-25T12:27:32Z2023-04-25T12:27:32ZIn centennial year, Turkish voters will choose between Erdoğan’s conservative path and the founder’s modernist vision<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521721/original/file-20230418-28-yjmrs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C59%2C3946%2C2592&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Erdoğan has led Turkey for 20 years. Will he be elected for five more?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-wave-turkish-national-flags-as-they-attend-a-news-photo/1251714967">Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Turkey has two historic events on the horizon. On May 14, 2023, voters will go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-elections-to-watch-in-2023-whats-at-stake-as-millions-head-to-the-ballot-box-around-the-globe-196840">elections</a>, and in October, the country will celebrate the centennial of the Republic. </p>
<p>In 1923, military leader <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691175829/ataturk">Mustafa Kemal Atatürk</a> led the foundation of the Republic of Turkey as a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/sociology/sociology-religion/secularism-and-state-policies-toward-religion-united-states-france-and-turkey?format=PB">secular and Turkish nationalist state</a>, unlike its forerunner, the Ottoman Empire, which had <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-politicization-of-islam-9780195136180">Islamic laws</a> and was <a href="https://press.syr.edu/supressbooks/1295/genesis-of-young-ottoman-thought-the/">ethnically diverse</a>.</p>
<p>Since taking power in 2003, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/erdogan-takes-on-ataturk/a-38391293">challenged Atatürk’s legacy</a>. Erdoğan was prime minister from 2003 to 2014, after which he became president – a position that was largely symbolic in Turkey until a series of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/17/europe/turkey-referendum-explainer/index.html">constitutional amendments</a> in 2017 made the president the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/04/13/the-turkish-constitutional-referendum-explained/">head of government</a>. </p>
<p>During his 20 years leading the country, Erdoğan has tried to revive the Ottoman era in various ways, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/hagia-sophia-has-been-converted-back-into-a-mosque-but-the-veiling-of-its-figural-icons-is-not-a-muslim-tradition-144042">the conversion of Hagia Sophia</a> from <a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/hagia-sophia-islamism-and-secularism-in-turkey">a museum into a mosque again</a> to a wildly popular <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/14/opinion/erdogan-tv-show-turkey.html">historical TV series glorifying Ottomans</a> broadcast on a <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/life/barbaros-another-turkish-series-to-take-the-world-by-storm-49997">state-run TV network</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ABctik8AAAAJ&hl=en">professor of political science</a>, I have <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/democracy-islam-and-secularism-in-turkey/9780231159326">analyzed Turkish politics for many years</a>. The upcoming elections are truly historic because voters will choose which vision they prefer in the second centennial of Turkey – Erdoğan’s or Atatürk’s. </p>
<h2>The presidential race</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.duvarenglish.com/four-candidates-officially-running-in-turkeys-2023-presidential-elections-news-62103">Four candidates</a> are running in the forthcoming presidential race. But <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/14/turkey-opinion-poll-tracker-erdogan-vs-kilicdaroglu">public surveys suggest</a> that it is a two-man race between President Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, founded by Atatürk.</p>
<p>Erdoğan seeks to win the election to present himself as the founder of “<a href="https://www.tccb.gov.tr/haberler/410/142559/-2023-yeni-vizyonumuz-turkiye-yuzyili-nin-baslangicidir-">a new Turkey</a>,” where populist Islamism prevails. Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, wants to <a href="https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/siyaset/kemal-kilicdaroglu-partisinin-vizyon-belgesini-acikladi-mesele-ataturkun-buyuk-hayaline-sahip-cikmaktir-2008690">revive Atatürk’s secular vision</a>, with certain democratic revisions.</p>
<h2>Erdoğan and populist Islamism</h2>
<p>In his first decade in power, Erdoğan received the support of the Atatürkist establishment’s discontents. This included many Kurds, members of an ethnic minority in Turkey, who want cultural recognition and therefore <a href="https://merip.org/2018/12/the-failed-resolution-process-and-the-transformation-of-kurdish-politics/">resisted Turkish nationalism</a>. </p>
<p>He also garnered the support of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-two-islamic-groups-fell-from-power-to-persecution-egypts-muslim-brotherhood-and-turkeys-gulenists-120800">Gülenists</a>, followers of the U.S.-based cleric <a href="https://theconversation.com/fethullah-gulen-public-intellectual-or-public-enemy-62887">Fethullah Gülen</a>, who supported an Islamization of Turkey, as well as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/20/world/europe/turkish-liberals-turn-their-backs-on-erdogan.html">liberal intellectuals</a> who wanted to make Turkey a member of the European Union.</p>
<p>By 2013, these groups succeeded in weakening Atatürkists’ grip on politics and the bureaucracy. Then, old rivalries between them resurfaced and the alliance fractured. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522236/original/file-20230420-21-25ak5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522236/original/file-20230420-21-25ak5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522236/original/file-20230420-21-25ak5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522236/original/file-20230420-21-25ak5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522236/original/file-20230420-21-25ak5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522236/original/file-20230420-21-25ak5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522236/original/file-20230420-21-25ak5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Erdoğan has drawn more nationalist supporters over the last decade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/turkish-president-and-leader-of-the-justice-and-development-news-photo/1249861028">Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Erdoğan established a new partnership with certain Turkish nationalist groups. He went back to the Turkish state’s old policies of discriminating against Kurds. For instance, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/06/07/turkey-end-abuse-criminal-proceedings-against-selahattin-demirtas">Selahattin Demirtaş</a>, the former leader of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, or HDP, has been held in prison for more than six years.</p>
<p>Erdoğan also declared Gülenists, <a href="https://www.themontrealreview.com/2009/Islam-And-Democracy-In-Turkey.php">his former main allies</a>, to be terrorists, and had <a href="https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/gundem/fetoden-gozaltina-332-bin-kisi-alindi-19-bini-tutuklu-7233107/">over 100,000 of them jailed</a>. This crackdown escalated after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/14/one-year-after-the-failed-coup-in-turkey-the-crackdown-continues">a failed coup attempt in 2016</a>, for which he held Gülenists exclusively responsible. </p>
<p>Erdoğan’s oppressive rule also led to the <a href="https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkish-writer-ahmet-altan-i-went-to-prison-i-came-out-and-i-can-go-back-again-news-58764">imprisonment of many liberal intellectuals</a>, which pleased his new nationalist partners.</p>
<p>This recent alliance with nationalists, however, does not suggest that Erdoğan has converted to Atatürkism. On the contrary, he has wooed nationalists to his populist Islamist regime.</p>
<p>For the upcoming elections, Erdoğan’s alliance includes his Justice and Development Party, the Nationalist Action Party, and two smaller nationalist and Islamist parties. All four of these parties <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-vote-who-are-erdogans-allies/a-65281080">agreed to withdraw Turkey</a> from an international treaty on preventing violence against women, commonly called the <a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/gender-matters/council-of-europe-convention-on-preventing-and-combating-violence-against-women-and-domestic-violence">Istanbul Convention</a>. They argued that it threatened “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/07/turkeys-withdrawal-from-the-istanbul-convention-rallies-the-fight-for-womens-rights-across-the-world-2/">family values</a>.” </p>
<p>They also all support <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/how-erdogans-pseudoscience-ruining-turkish-economy-1">statism</a> by way of Erdoğan’s one-man rule over the economy. And they share <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/06/27/erdogans-problem-is-not-with-sweden-and-finland-but-with-turkeys-western-vocation/">anti-Western attitudes</a>, from promoting <a href="https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/bakan-soylu-deas-pkkpyd-ve-fetonun-sahibi-amerikadir-704330.html">anti-Western conspiracy theories</a> to proposing <a href="https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/bahcelinatodan-ayrilmak-bile-tercih-olarak-gundeme-alinmali,v--iN0aLAUeOap8HMA24dw">Turkey’s exit from NATO</a>.</p>
<h2>The Atatürkist alternative</h2>
<p>As the leader of the CHP, Kılıçdaroğlu represents the Atatürkist alternative to Erdoğan’s populist Islamism. </p>
<p>Yet Kılıçdaroğlu has been an exception among the Atatürkist elite. He was born in the <a href="https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/kilicdaroglundan-dersim-acilimi-51647">provincial town of Tunceli</a>, which is mostly <a href="https://twitter.com/kilicdarogluk/status/1648755862905708551?s=20">populated by Alevis</a>, members of a Muslim minority that has historically been discriminated against by Turkey’s Sunni Muslim majority.</p>
<p>Unlike Erdoğan, Kılıçdaroğlu has defended women’s rights. For example, he has promised to <a href="https://m.bianet.org/english/politics/258802-main-opposition-leader-kilicdaroglu-promises-to-bring-back-istanbul-convention">return Turkey to the Istanbul Convention</a> if he is elected. Turkey’s only female political party leader, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/10/25/ex-turkish-minister-meral-aksener-launches-new-party">Meral Akşener of the nationalist Good Party</a>, is Kılıçdaroğlu’s main ally. </p>
<p>To oversee the economy, Kılıçdaroğlu is reportedly eyeing two candidates – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-opposition-alliance-plans-put-babacan-charge-economy-sources-2023-03-10/">a former economy minister</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-22/a-wharton-professor-pledges-revolution-in-turkish-economy-after-elections">a University of Pennsylvania finance professor</a>. Both support liberal market policies, which signals a turn away from the centralized state programs of Erdoğan’s tenure.</p>
<p>The most unknown aspect of a possible Kılıçdaroğlu presidency is foreign policy and whether he would <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-2023-election-erdogan-kilicdaroglu/">strengthen ties with the West</a>, given the widespread popularity of <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/why-turkey-torn-between-united-states-and-russia/">anti-Westernism in Turkish society</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Turkish presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu makes a heart shape with his hands during a rally" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522237/original/file-20230420-2128-7etqgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522237/original/file-20230420-2128-7etqgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522237/original/file-20230420-2128-7etqgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522237/original/file-20230420-2128-7etqgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522237/original/file-20230420-2128-7etqgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522237/original/file-20230420-2128-7etqgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522237/original/file-20230420-2128-7etqgx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s not yet clear whether Kılıçdaroğlu would continue Erdoğan’s anti-Western policies or strengthen ties with the West.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/turkeys-republican-peoples-party-chairman-and-presidential-news-photo/1251715008">Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Candidates’ advantages and hurdles</h2>
<p>Both candidates have strengths and weaknesses heading into the presidential race. </p>
<p>Erdoğan will rely on aspects of the authoritarian administration he has built over the last two decades. His system includes a <a href="https://us.boell.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/2022_10_26_turkey_crony_snapshot.pdf">widespread patronage network</a>, near-absolute <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/turkey-erdogan-media/">control over the media</a>, a <a href="https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/en-US/">religious affairs agency</a> that runs 80,000 mosques and <a href="https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/tr-TR/Kurumsal/Detay/35388/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-diyarbakirda-selahattin-eyyubi-camiinin-acilisini-gerceklestirdi">serves his political agenda</a>, and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/10/turkey-earthquake-erdogan-government-response-corruption-construction/">imposed loyalty in various state institutions</a>. </p>
<p>But Erdoğan faces hurdles related to his authoritarian style, too, particularly the many discontented citizens his 20-year rule has produced. <a href="https://www.indyturk.com/node/440846/haber/bir-milyon-576-bin-ki%C5%9Fi-ter%C3%B6r-%C3%B6rg%C3%BCt%C3%BC-%C3%BCyeli%C4%9Finden-soru%C5%9Fturma-ge%C3%A7irdi%E2%80%A6-muhaliflere">Over 1.5 million</a> Turkish people have faced terror charges in the past seven years. </p>
<p>The ongoing economic crisis – with <a href="https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Consumer-Price-Index-November-2022-45800&dil=2">an inflation rate over 80%</a> – is another hindrance to his reelection. And his vote could take a hit from the fallout of the recent earthquake that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/teenager-rescued-rubble-turkey-10-days-after-quake-2023-02-16/">killed over 45,000 people</a> in Turkey. The tragedy highlighted Erdoğan’s disastrous <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkish-president-erdogans-grip-on-power-threatened-by-devastating-earthquake-200033">deregulation of the construction industry</a> and his <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkish-president-erdogans-grip-on-power-threatened-by-devastating-earthquake-200033">ineffective emergency response</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu is likely to benefit from a large percentage of the Turkish nationalist vote, along with the support of Akşener, and a bulk of Kurdish votes. While the pro-Kurdish <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/681bbff7-f923-46de-99ed-15f1d462c92d">HDP’s support for him is only implicit</a> – the party chose not to field its own candidate, which would divide opposition votes – the former HDP leader Demirtaş <a href="https://twitter.com/hdpdemirtas/status/1647964725534236673?s=20">explicitly supports</a> his candidacy, from prison.</p>
<p>Kılıçdaroğlu’s main weakness is that he has lost many elections to Erdoğan since he became the CHP’s leader in 2010. The majority of Turkish voters are conservative Muslims who tend to <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/democracy-islam-and-secularism-in-turkey/9780231159326">oppose the CHP’s assertive secularist policies</a>.</p>
<p>To lessen opposition from conservatives, Kılıçdaroğlu has revised the authoritarian secularism of Atatürkists. He declared that the CHP <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/turkey-elections-why-chp-has-changed-its-stance-headscarves">will not reimpose a headscarf ban</a> in universities and public institutions, and also asked <a href="https://t24.com.tr/video/kilicdaroglu-en-cok-basortulu-kizlarla-helallesmek-isteriz,44119">forgiveness from female students</a> for that previous policy.</p>
<p>Kılıçdaroğlu has also established a broad-based alliance. Under his leadership, the CHP has established a coalition with <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-turkey-government-recep-tayyip-erdogan-49b2a7d7afa1e476d2eab4K%C4%B1l%C4%B1%C3%A7daro%C4%9Flu0f4dbca8e4">five right-wing parties</a>, three of which are run by conservatives and Islamists. </p>
<p>Additionally, Kılıçdaroğlu has promised to appoint two popular CHP politicians who can appeal to conservative voters – Istanbul’s mayor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-istanbuls-mayor-was-sentenced-to-jail-and-what-it-means-for-turkeys-2023-presidential-race-196632">Ekrem İmamoğlu</a>, and Ankara’s mayor, <a href="https://www.duvarenglish.com/aksener-back-in-opposition-alliance-after-meeting-with-chp-mayors-imamoglu-and-yavas-news-61968">Mansur Yavaş</a> – as vice presidents if he is elected.</p>
<h2>A global impact?</h2>
<p>The outcome of the upcoming presidential election will determine whether Turkey will continue to be ruled by a populist Islamist regime, or return to a path of secular modernization and democratization.</p>
<p>This has international implications. </p>
<p>An Erdoğan win will signal that the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/cultural-backlash-trump-brexit-and-authoritarian-populism?format=PB">global rise of right-wing populists</a> is still robust enough to dominate a leading Muslim-majority country. </p>
<p>A victory for Kılıçdaroğlu, meanwhile, may be celebrated by democrats worldwide as a defeat of a populist Islamist leader, despite his control over the media and state institutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ahmet T. Kuru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s a lot at stake in the May 14 presidential election. Will Turkey continue to be ruled by a populist Islamist government or return to a path of secular democratization?Ahmet T. Kuru, Professor of Political Science, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2036492023-04-24T19:57:33Z2023-04-24T19:57:33ZTucker Carlson’s departure and Fox News’ expensive legal woes show the problem with faking ‘authenticity’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522669/original/file-20230424-1075-lksybg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C6390%2C4529&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fox News Host Tucker Carlson speaks during the 2022 Fox Nation Patriot Awards on Nov. 17, 2022, in Hollywood, Fla.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tucker-carlson-speaks-during-2022-fox-nation-patriot-awards-news-photo/1442331995?adppopup=true">Jason Koerner/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For decades, Fox News thrived because the people behind it understood what their audience wanted and were more than willing to deliver: television news – or what Fox called news – from a populist perspective. </p>
<p>Fox is <a href="https://deadline.com/tag/ratings/">consistently the most-watched cable news channel</a>, far ahead of competitors like MSNBC and CNN. That’s in large part due to people like Tucker Carlson, whose show “Tucker Carlson Tonight” <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjoyella/2023/02/14/with-35-million-viewers-tucker-carlson-has-the-weeks-highest-rated-cable-news-show/?sh=c4328587f529">has been one of the highest-rated in cable news</a>. But on April 24, Fox announced that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/media/tucker-carlson-fox-news.html">Carlson is leaving the network</a>, and while no explanation was provided, it’s safe to say it wasn’t a lack of viewers.</p>
<p>Carlson’s departure came on the heels of Fox News’ <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/18/business/fox-news-dominion-trial-settlement">US$787.5 million settlement of the lawsuit lodged by Dominion Voting Systems</a> over the network’s promotion of misinformation about the 2020 election. Dominion had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/fox-news-media-tucker-carlson-part-ways-2023-04-24/#:%7E:text=Dominion%20had%20alleged%20that%20statements,in%20Biden's%20favor%20were%20false.">cited claims made on Carlson’s program</a> as well as on other shows as evidence of defamation, and Carlson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/04/fox-dominion-trial-tucker-carlson-sean-hannity-testify">was expected to testify</a> if the case had gone to trial. The settlement reveals Fox’s biggest strength and weakness: the network’s incredible understanding of what its audience wants and its unrelenting willingness to deliver exactly that. </p>
<h2>More real than elites</h2>
<p>I’m a journalism scholar who studies <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/imagined-audiences-9780197542606?cc=us&lang=en&">the relationship between the news industry and the public</a>, and I’ve long been interested in <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/19312431211060426">understanding Fox’s appeal</a>. As media scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Yk3Elf0AAAAJ&hl=en">Reece Peck</a> observes in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/fox-populism-branding-conservatism-working-class?format=HB&isbn=9781108496766">his book about the network</a>, Fox’s success is less about politics than it is about style. Fox’s star broadcasters like Carlson <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2022/which-journalists-do-people-pay-most-attention-and-why-study-six-countries">found enormous success</a> by embracing an authenticity-as-a-form-of-populism approach.</p>
<p>They presented themselves as more “real” than the “out-of-touch elites” at other news organizations. Journalists have traditionally attempted to earn audience trust and loyalty by emphasizing their professionalism and objectivity, while people like Carlson earn it by emphasizing an us-against-them anti-elitism where <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/27/fox-news-tucker-carlson-elections/">expertise is more often a criticism than a compliment</a>. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/fox-populism-branding-conservatism-working-class?format=HB&isbn=9781108496766">Peck notes</a>, Fox broadcasters present themselves as “ordinary Americans … challenging the cultural elitism of the news industry.” So the allure of Fox is not just in its political slant, but in its just-like-you presentation that establishes anchors like Carlson as allies in the fight against the buttoned-up establishment figures they regularly disparage. </p>
<p>In short, NPR plays smooth jazz between segments, while <a href="https://www.cjr.org/tow_center/fox-news-partisan-progaganda-research.php">Fox plays country</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people surrounding a small group of people on a public plaza." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522671/original/file-20230424-18-r2qeby.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reporters surround Dominion Voting Systems lawyers during a news conference in Wilmington, Del., after the defamation lawsuit by Dominion against Fox News was settled April 18, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeek-NorthAmerica-PhotoGallery/b8917d7cb42c459396ef17fe971ddcc3/photo?Query=Fox%20News&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=4879&currentItemNo=8">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Authenticity’ became a trap</h2>
<p>This anti-establishment, working-class persona embraced by many of Fox’s broadcasters has always been a performance. </p>
<p>Back in 2000, Bill O'Reilly, whom the network would eventually <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/21/business/media/bill-oreilly-sexual-harassment.html">pay tens of millions of dollars a year</a>, called his show the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/2000/12/13/the-life-of-oreilly/b9cd54fb-3edd-4e68-a489-2e990e3a7bca/">only show from a working-class point of view</a>.” </p>
<p>More recently, Sean Hannity, who is a friend of former President Donald Trump’s and makes about $30 million a year, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/09/28/hannity-slams-overpaid-media-elites-then-journalists-respond-noting-his-29m-salary-and-private-jet/">slammed “overpaid” media elites</a>. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/fox-populism-branding-conservatism-working-class?format=HB&isbn=9781108496766">Peck observes</a> that this posturing is purposeful: It emphasizes “Fox’s moral purity, a purity that is established in terms of a distance from the corrupting force of political and media power centers.”</p>
<p>However, the Dominion lawsuit revealed that, after decades of using this distinctly populist – and often misleading – brand of performative authenticity to earn the loyalty of millions of people, Fox became trapped by it. </p>
<p>Internal communications between Fox broadcasters that were revealed in the months leading up to the trial’s scheduled start date showed the network’s marquee acts trying to reconcile their audience’s sense that the 2020 election had been rigged with their own skepticism about that lie. </p>
<p>Messages made public as part of the Dominion suit show Carlson, for example, said that he believed that Sidney Powell, Trump’s lawyer, was lying about election fraud claims. But, he added “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/business/fox-dominion-defamation-case.html">our viewers are good people and they believe it</a>.” Fox wasn’t telling its audience what to believe. Instead, it was following its audience’s lead and presenting a false narrative that aligned with what its viewers wanted to be true.</p>
<p>Once Fox’s broadcasters and the Fox audience became bonded by the network’s outsider status, those broadcasters felt compelled to follow the audience off a cliff of election misinformation and right into a defamation lawsuit. The alternative would run the risk of sullying its populist persona and, ironically, its credibility with its audience. </p>
<p>As New York Times TV critic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/television/fox-news-settlement.html">James Poniewozik observed</a>, “The customer is always right. In fact, the customer is boss.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a suit sits at a desk in front of a bright-blue backdrop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522679/original/file-20230424-26-11anhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill O'Reilly was one of the earliest Fox News hosts to present an ‘everyman’ persona to the viewing public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TVOReillyAccuser/909647250fc34130acd81e7a9d51a191/photo">AP Photo/Richard Drew</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A trendsetter and a cautionary tale</h2>
<p>The Dominion lawsuit was more than a rare opportunity to see firsthand just how dishonestly Fox’s talent acted when the cameras were rolling. </p>
<p>It’s also a cautionary tale for those who see so-called authenticity as a marker of trustworthiness in journalism, and in the media more generally. </p>
<p>“As a society, we … love the idea of people ‘being themselves,’” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/02/social-media-analyst-emily-hund-influencer-authenticity-interview">says scholar Emily Hund</a>, a researcher at the University of Pennsylvania’s Center on Digital Culture and Society and the author of “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691231020/the-influencer-industry">The Influencer Industry: The Quest for Authenticity on Social Media</a>.” </p>
<p>The question that many seem to implicitly ask themselves when deciding whether to trust <a href="https://items.ssrc.org/beyond-disinformation/trust-and-authenticity-as-tools-for-journalism-and-partisan-disinformation/">journalists</a> and others within the media world seems to be shifting from “Does this person know what they are talking about?” to “Is this person genuine?”</p>
<p>Media workers have noticed: <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/2023/03/social-media-policies-are-failing-journalists/">Journalists</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2023/03/03/stars-are-embracing-authenticity-taylor-swift-prince-harry/11152779002/">celebrities</a> and <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90768656/ugc-influencers-content-marketing">marketers</a> routinely share seemingly personal information about themselves on social media in an effort to present themselves as people first and foremost. These efforts are not always necessarily dishonest; however, they are always a performance.</p>
<p>For decades, Fox’s prolonged popularity has made it clear that authenticity is truly valuable when it comes to building credibility and audience loyalty. Now, the network’s settlement with Dominion has revealed just how manipulative and insincere that authenticity can be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacob L. Nelson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tucker Carlson and his employer, Fox News, had an incredible understanding of what their audience wants: a kind of authenticity that is not genuine but instead manipulative.Jacob L. Nelson, Assistant Professor of Communication, University of UtahLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022252023-03-20T23:35:01Z2023-03-20T23:35:01ZTrump’s unprecedented call for protests is the latest sign of his aim to degrade America’s institutions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516495/original/file-20230320-2290-y3s5xw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C4%2C2979%2C1987&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump asked his supporters to protest what he claimed is his imminent indictment.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpLegalTroublesProtests/ba81521a7fb64f5a81ea913a193cbfea/photo?Query=donald%20trump%20indictment&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=126&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In a social media post on March 18, 2023, former President Donald Trump announced that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/18/us/politics/trump-indictment-arrest-protests.html">he would be arrested on March 21</a> on charges stemming from an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/drug-crimes-united-states-government-new-york-city-donald-trump-manhattan-6c5ace7d704c944fe2e4bc66c71a42ba">investigation led by</a> Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Bragg’s office is probing hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels, an adult film star, which were allegedly made to spare candidate Trump embarrassment on the eve of the 2016 presidential election.</em></p>
<p><em>“THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!” wrote Trump.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://udayton.edu/directory/artssciences/hrc/inglis-shelley.php">Scholar Shelley Inglis</a> spent more than 15 years with the United Nations, where she advised governments and democracy advocates on how to strengthen the rule of law, human rights and democratic governance. We asked her about Trump’s post.</em></p>
<h2>What did you think about when you heard his call for protests?</h2>
<p>Let me begin by quickly describing populism, because it’s important to my thoughts about Trump’s post. Populist movements portray “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-101518-042843">the people in a moral battle against elites</a>,” as scholars Jane Mansbridge and Stephen Macedo describe it. Some level of populism is inherent in democracies where candidates appeal to be elected by “the people.” </p>
<p>But what I call autocratic populists use this narrative to claim they are the sole voice of “the people” and those against them are “bad” or even “evil.” They undermine any and all opposition to them and attempts to hold them accountable, including independent institutions like courts, elections and the media. This is how such populists become so dangerous for democracy and the rule of law.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People with cameras standing in front of the stairs to a building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516503/original/file-20230320-2935-zmrphc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Members of the media set up cameras in front of the courthouse on March 20, 2023, in New York, ahead of former President Donald Trump’s anticipated indictment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpLegalTroubles/cd22ad509b9b4a309e5cd28e7edee612/photo?Query=donald%20trump%20indictment&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=126&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez</a></span>
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<p>Trump has that autocrat’s populism, in which he says that not only is he anti-elite but that he is “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2016/06/22/trump-im-the-only-one-who-can-fix-our-problems.html">the only one</a>” who can represent the people and calls on the public to question legitimate democratic institutions – which he did even when he was the head of those institutions. </p>
<p>Scholars like me know that protests play an important role in societies, and the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/topic/freedom-assembly-and-association#:%7E:text=Everyone%20has%20the%20rights%20to,protests%2C%20both%20offline%20and%20online.">freedom to protest is part of a democratic society</a>. The idea of peaceful protests is to hold the government accountable and for people to have an avenue for free speech and be able to participate in demonstrating their demands. But I believe protests are most valuable when they originate from civil society or advocacy groups. </p>
<p>It’s really a red flag if a political party or leader is using people in protest in a democracy like the U.S. That devalues the idea that protests come from the people or what we call civil society. Instead, it’s a manipulation of a democratic society. </p>
<h2>Trump wasn’t asking his followers to protest a policy, was he?</h2>
<p>He was asking for a protest on his behalf because of what an independent institution is doing. It’s a protest about and for him. </p>
<p>It’s hard for me to think of an example in recent history when political leaders in a democracy like the U.S. demanded that people protest, even on an issue, let alone for them. So Trump’s call is a real populist move that is intended actually to undermine respect for democratic institutions, whereas popular protests and advocacy can be a sign of a vibrant and healthy democracy. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lzlxrPC_E_U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Then-President Donald Trump declaring “I am the chosen one” during a White House session with reporters on Aug. 21, 2019.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>But doesn’t Trump couch the moves to hold him accountable as coming from the radical left, not as government holding him accountable?</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/so-you-want-to-be-an-autocrat-heres-the-10-point-checklist-125908">Demonizing the institution</a> and alleging that the institutions are controlled by an agenda is part of the narrative that Trump has created. It is the populism of “us” versus “them.” Even when he was the head of the government and its institutions, he was fomenting this narrative by effectively saying things like, “This election is going to be unfair … even though I’m president of the United States. I’m already saying that this election, run by my own government, though at multiple levels, is going to be unfair.”</p>
<p>Once populists get in power, they <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/607612/pdf">degrade any kind of accountability</a>, any checks and balances, and they debase the opposition through very clever ways of creating a narrative that it’s somehow justified. </p>
<h2>Yet Trump is out of power now. How does that still work?</h2>
<p>He’s continued with that narrative, which is basically to say he’s the only one who represents the people of the United States as a legitimate voice. And anything that is done against him actually is against the United States. So his phrase in that post, “Take our country back,” means “Give back power to me, or do something against institutions that might be holding me to account.”</p>
<p>For me, it is important for people to appreciate that protest is productive and healthy for democracy when it comes from the bottom up. But when it’s manipulated by political actors, calling on people to protest for them and seek to overturn U.S. institutions, like on Jan. 6, it can actually be highly threatening to democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202225/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shelley Inglis works for the University of Dayton Human Rights Center which receives funding from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under the Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention (TVTP) Grant Program.</span></em></p>When former President Donald Trump summoned his fans to protest over what he called his imminent indictment, a scholar of democracy saw it as an autocratic move.Shelley Inglis, Executive Director, University of Dayton Human Rights Center, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.