tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/2016-23638/articles2016 – The Conversation2016-12-30T09:49:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/707282016-12-30T09:49:55Z2016-12-30T09:49:55ZWas 2016 just 1938 all over again?<p>On December 31 1937, Cambridge classicist and man of letters F L Lucas embarked on an experiment. He would keep a diary for exactly one calendar year. It was, as he put it: “an attempt to give one answer, however inadequate, however fragmentary, to the question that will surely be asked one day by some of the unborn – with the bewilderment, one hopes, of a happier age: ‘What can it have felt like to live in that strange, tormented and demented world?’”</p>
<p>Lucas sought to preserve an affective archive, and to write about how it felt to live in an era of spiralling crisis.</p>
<p>As someone who wasn’t born in 1938 I cannot help but feel that Lucas’ solemn hope that his generation was living through the worst of it – and that lessons would surely be learned – have been well and truly dashed. Has 2016 been 1938 all over again?</p>
<p>Bowled over by the news this past year, one can be forgiven for grasping for the crutches of historical analogy. Indeed, a number of eminent historians of inter-war Europe have discerned <a href="http://www.historyworkshop.org.uk/trump-and-fascism-a-view-from-the-past/">thunderous echoes</a> of the 1930s.</p>
<p>At present, as in the “<a href="https://rhul.rl.talis.com/modules/hs2280.html">Devil’s Decade</a>”, we are experiencing the capricious convergence of historical forces: the fall-out of economic crisis and the extreme polarisation of the political spectrum from far-right to hard-left – the centre doesn’t hold. A tidal wave of refugees is being met by proportionately more xenophobia than compassion. Militant isolationism is thriving. Doors are being closed and walls built. Culture wars are punctuated by attacks on “experts” and intellectuals. 2016 has even seen open an unashamed airing of <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/donald-trump-anti-semitism-young-jews-214314">anti-Semitism</a>. </p>
<p>The historical parallels between 2016 and 1938 are abundant. There are important differences in detail, in time and place, but the pattern of events, and of cause and effect, is striking.</p>
<p>Civil war raged in Spain then – as it rages in Syria today. Then as now, these internecine conflicts provide mirrors to existing fissures in international relations and deepening ideological antagonisms. By the end of 1938, and after Abyssinia, Spain, Anschluss, and <a href="https://www.ushmm.org/outreach/en/article.php?ModuleId=10007697"><em>Kristallnacht</em></a>, not much faith was left in the ideal of internationalism or in the League of Nations – and this too sounds all too familiar.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151414/original/image-20161222-17323-113ciz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151414/original/image-20161222-17323-113ciz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151414/original/image-20161222-17323-113ciz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151414/original/image-20161222-17323-113ciz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151414/original/image-20161222-17323-113ciz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151414/original/image-20161222-17323-113ciz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151414/original/image-20161222-17323-113ciz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The aftermath of the Kristallnacht.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5418870">Bundesarchiv</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The rescue of refugee children through the <em>Kindertransports</em> was just as symbolically important, yet as negligible, a solution to an immense humanitarian and moral crisis as has been the response to lone children refugees holed up in <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/calais-19226">Calais</a> this year. And what of <a href="https://theconversation.com/aleppos-fall-marks-a-turning-point-not-the-end-of-the-syrian-war-70409">Aleppo</a>? Shame was, and is, a dominant feeling.</p>
<h2>Where next?</h2>
<p>The Munich Agreement of September 1938 was perceived by many of its British critics as an act of national suicide. The Brexit decision has likewise, again and again, been described as an act of self-harm, even of <a href="http://www.historymatters.group.shef.ac.uk/post-referendum-depression/">national hari-kari</a>.</p>
<p>Writing at the end of the year, contemporary historian <a href="http://www.historymatters.group.shef.ac.uk/post-referendum-depression/">R W Seaton-Watson</a> had no doubt that 1938 had “resulted in a drastic disturbance of the political balance on the Continent, the full consequences of which is still too soon to estimate”. Treaties weren’t worth the paper they were written on in 1938 – and at the end of 2016 it is worryingly unclear where Britain will stand after triggering Article 50.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, George Orwell’s assessment of the disarray of the political left post-Munich could just as well apply to Momentum and Jeremy Corbyn’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/labour-party-5886">Labour party</a>. As Orwell saw it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Barring some unforeseen scandal or a really large disturbance inside the Conservative Party, Labour’s chances of winning the General Election seem very small. If any kind of Popular Front is formed, its chances are probably less than those of Labour unaided. The best hope would seem to be that if Labour is defeated, the defeat may drive it back to its proper ‘line’.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Full circle</h2>
<p>One could go on seeking coordinates but the sum total would still be the same. The rug has been pulled out from under the assumed solidity of the liberal democratic project. A delicate tapestry of structures and ideas is coming apart at the seams.</p>
<p>Even more specifically, it is the psychological experience, the search for meaning, and the emotional cycle, the feelings – collective and individual – of 1938 that are uncannily familiar.</p>
<p>Post-truth politics is anti-rational. Emotion has unexpectedly triumphed over reason in 2016. Love and/or hate has <a href="https://emotionsblog.history.qmul.ac.uk/2016/07/let-grief-convert-to-anger-bremotional-politics-2016/">beaten intellect</a>. That’s true for Hillary Clinton’s “love trumps hate” slogan as much as it is for her opponent. </p>
<p>New political technologies render older ones obsolete. In both Britain’s referendum campaign and in the American election, traditional opinion polls failed to capture the emotion being expressed across social media platforms.</p>
<p>Back in 1938, it was British Gallup and the rival Mass-Observation that were the innovative political technologies. Using very different techniques, each offered fresh insight into the psychology of political behaviour and tried to unseal the stiff upper lip of the British electorate.</p>
<p>Mass-Observation tried to get into people’s heads, and diagnosed an increasing occurrence of “crisis fatigue” as a response to nervous strain and “a sense of continuous crisis”.</p>
<p>Almost immediately after the EU referendum, therapists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/29/eu-referendum-mental-health-vote">reported</a> “shockingly elevated levels of anxiety and despair, with few patients wishing to talk about anything else”. And the visceral nature of the US election campaign contributed, tragically, to the <a href="metro.co.uk/2016/11/13/huge-surge-in-calls-to-suicide-prevention-hotline-following-trump-victory-6255180/">exponential increase</a> of calls to suicide helplines. National crisis is inevitably internalised.</p>
<p>Reflecting on the psychological fallout of the Munich Crisis, novelist E M Forster observed that: “exalted in contrary directions, some of us rose above ourselves, and others committed suicide.”</p>
<p>As 1938 drew to a close, serious conversations were dominated by the verbal and physical expressions of fatalism, anxiety, sickness, depression, and impending doom. Lucas wrote in his diary:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Crisis seems to have filled the world with nervous break-downs. Or perhaps the Crisis itself was only one more nervous break-down of a world driven by the killing pace of modern life and competition into ever acuter neurasthenia [shell shock].</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is too simplistic to say that history repeats itself. And yet, throughout this past year I could not escape the feeling that we have been here before. We share with those who lived through 1938 overwhelming sensibility of bewilderment, suspense, desperation and fear of the unknown. I can’t help but wonder what future historians will make of 2016.</p>
<p>It’s probably sage advice to go see a good movie over the holidays – and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/aug/31/la-la-land-review-ryan-gosling-emma-stone">La La Land</a>, already tipped to win an Oscar, may provide just the kind of escapism that is needed. However, when someone comes to make the movie of 2016, the soundtrack will probably be the late Leonard Cohen’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0nmHymgM7Y">You Want it Darker</a>. It certainly feels like 1938 all over again. Time to start keeping a diary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Gottlieb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Diaries from 1938 show the depth of concern about the direction the world was taking. Are we facing similar dark prospects?Julie Gottlieb, Reader in Modern History, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/706132016-12-29T10:01:35Z2016-12-29T10:01:35ZSo you think 2016 was a bad year? There were plenty worse<p>As early as January, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/david-bowie-18483">David Bowie departed the scene</a>, some were already looking dubiously at 2016. Bowie was an icon of the 1970s, the era when what is now the dominant section of the population in most Western societies in terms of spending power – the post-war baby boomers – came to maturity. As more cultural legends from that age also died – many without the last burst of creativity that made Bowie’s death so poignant – 2016 began to feel like the end of an era. </p>
<p>And when <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/brexit-9976">Brexit came in the summer</a>, it was clear that in some ways it was. Articles began to appear listing the horrors of 2016 – from Zika virus to the Turkish coup. By the time <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/2016-us-presidential-election-23653">Donald Trump was elected in November</a>, on the same wave of rejection of established politics as Brexit, the feeling that 2016 had a peculiar quality was entrenched.</p>
<p>This <em>fin de siècle</em> atmosphere was captured in what became the word of the year: post-truth. Both Brexit and Trump suggested it was open season for bare-faced lying and demagoguery. Yet for those social conservatives who voted for Trump he spoke <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/11/10/american-right-inside-the-sacrifice-zone/">their truths</a> – and tapped into their fear of an unsettling future of rapid cultural and economic change. </p>
<p>Like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/italian-referendum-33962">referendum voters in Italy</a>, where Alfio Caruso’s <a href="https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=http://www.illibraio.it/libri/alfio-caruso-1960-il-migliore-anno-della-nostra-vita-9788830446182/&prev=search">1960: Il Migliore anno della nostra vita</a> (1960: the best year of our lives) was a 2016 bestseller, they nostalgically looked back to an imagined past rather than forward to an uncertain future. Similar fears of rapid change to their communities seem to have been key drivers of the voting behaviour of 2016’s social conservatives, who were if anything more post-trust than <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/post-truth-32226">post-truth</a>.</p>
<p>They were also post-irony, as the notion that Trump was the anti-establishment candidate demonstrated. In another irony, the tide of refugees that sparked some of these social conservative anxieties <a href="http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migration-to-the-uk-asylum/">began to recede</a>. Syria nonetheless <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/syria-592">remained a killing field</a>. However, despite fears that Islamic State (IS) are seeking to export their theatrical brand of terrorism to the West through events such as Nice or Berlin, terrorism’s main victims remained in the same five countries of Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria. That 2016 was a particularly bad year is very much a Western narrative.</p>
<h2>Sometimes bad is bad</h2>
<p>How do you measure bad years? The easiest way is probably through human deaths. In that case, the worst year proportionately may well have been the unrecorded one some 75,000 years ago when <a href="http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/toba2.html">Mount Toba erupted</a> with devastating force, causing a “volcanic winter” and nearly killing off humans altogether. The <a href="http://www.historytoday.com/ole-j-benedictow/black-death-greatest-catastrophe-ever">Black Death pandemic</a> of the 1340s is the closest we as a species have come to a similar cataclysm since. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151382/original/image-20161222-17310-2gh772.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151382/original/image-20161222-17310-2gh772.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151382/original/image-20161222-17310-2gh772.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151382/original/image-20161222-17310-2gh772.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151382/original/image-20161222-17310-2gh772.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151382/original/image-20161222-17310-2gh772.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151382/original/image-20161222-17310-2gh772.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You think Brexit was bad?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dance of Death by Michael Wolgemut (1493)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Within the past 100 years, the worst year in terms of death indices may be 1918, when the closing stages of World War I coincided with the deadly outbreak of so-called “Spanish Flu” which <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/1918-flu-pandemic">killed between 20m and 50m people</a>. Such pandemics are, of course, natural disasters. Human activity can, however, spread them faster and further, as we see by comparing the global impact of the influenza pandemic of 1918-20 with the much more localised effects of the <a href="http://www.ancient.eu/article/782/">541 Plague of Justinian</a>. </p>
<p>So globalisation might seem as risky as 2016’s social conservatives fear – though of course it can also help humanity to intervene against pandemics.</p>
<p>Other human activities, notably wars, have the opposite effect. Wars are only the most obvious of the various anthropogenic ways in which humanity can drive up the death index in a given year, not least because they usually bring in their wake the other horsemen of the apocalypse. On such a measure, 2016 barely registers on the worst year index. </p>
<h2>Shape of things to come</h2>
<p>Humanity’s efforts collectively to win the Darwin Awards through self-destructive warfare were far more noticeable in 1939-1945, the Mongol conquests or the European assault on the Americas. Famines, those other disasters often hastened by anthropogenic mismanagement, have also been far more noticeable in the past, with the estimated 11m deaths of the <a href="http://www.academia.edu/6977392/A_Forgotten_Holocaust_The_Bengal_Famine_of_1770">Great Bengal famine of 1769-1773</a> both absolutely and proportionately a notable example.</p>
<p>So humanity won no <a href="http://www.darwinawards.com/">Darwin Awards</a>, thank goodness, in 2016. The year’s peculiar quality – at least for the West – lay more in the way in which it felt like the end of an era. If so, then it also marks the start of a new one. As is becoming clear with Brexit, it is highly unlikely that this new era will bring the comforting certainties social conservatives crave. Instead, it is worth bearing in mind that the kind of economic nationalism many of them seek has in the past proved a gateway to Darwin Award winning conflicts. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"810904810291625984"}"></div></p>
<p>Meanwhile, unpredictable figures such as Trump now have their fingers on the nuclear trigger – when they are not <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/22/brutal-amoral-ruthless-cheating-trumps-trade-industrial-peter-navarro-views-on-china">busily riling China</a>. If 2016 felt like the end of an era, there are definitely risks that the one about to begin could be a whole lot worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pippa Catterall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s become a popular meme: 2016 was the worst year ever. We’ll be lucky if it was.Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/707832016-12-28T10:06:51Z2016-12-28T10:06:51ZGeorge Michael and Rick Parfitt: two ends of a rich cultural mainstream<p>The deaths of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38432862">pop superstar George Michael</a> and Status Quo’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38427459">Rick Parfitt</a> within a two-day period over Christmas might once have seemed extraordinary for the world of popular music. But it capped a year strewn with such losses. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/david-bowie-18483">David Bowie</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/prince-20207">Prince</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/leonard-cohen-33159">Leonard Cohen</a> were major-league headliners. But the list is long: George Martin, the Eagles’ Glenn Frey, Sharon Jones, Earth, Wind and Fire founder Maurice White, Leon Russell, Merle Haggard, Phife Dawg, Keith Emerson, Greg Lake. From top-billed stars, to producers and session players, few genres are left that have not mourned an important loss in 2016.</p>
<p>Social media has an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media-network/media-network-blog/2014/aug/21/robin-williams-mourning-death-celebrities-social-media-viral">amplifying effect</a>, as shared clips and memories drive awareness, encourage public responses and magnify a sense of epidemic. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"813822246875697155"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s also possible that the post-war baby boom generation reaching old age – and the growing number of entertainers attaining household name appeal with the increase of mass media since the 1950s and 1960s – means that sheer demographics play a part. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36108133">There are simply more celebrities around, more ways to find out about their death</a> and a larger public space in which to respond. </p>
<p>Any way you cut it, though, 2016 has been a grim year for music – and indeed <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38446753">popular culture at large</a>. TV and cinema have fared no better – as I write this, news has just broken of the death of one of Hollywood’s favourite daughters, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2016/dec/27/carrie-fisher-celebrity-tributes">actor and writer Carrie Fisher</a>.</p>
<h2>That’s entertainment</h2>
<p>The widespread posting of recollections and thoughts of Parfitt and George Michael also illustrates an aspect of popular music that can get lost in eulogies to genre defining (or defying) “genius” – entertainment pure and simple, as a good in and of itself. Ascriptions of “authenticity” in popular music are often attached to a sense of folk roots – speaking a broader truth – or aspirations to “high art”, pushing the boundaries of a field. Both Rick Parfitt and George Michael, though very different, travelled at an oblique angle to these categories.</p>
<p>Status Quo evolved from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEV55fCkW80">psychedelically infused rock</a> to the straight ahead, 12-bar based, boogie-driven hits for which they became best known. Often noted for their lack of variety, including in their own <a href="http://recordcollectormag.com/reviews/in-search-of-the-fourth-chord">self-mocking references</a>, they exemplified instead another, less frequently celebrated, aspect of the popular music continuum – reliability. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7yul1aRVqFY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>There was almost a pantomime quality to the instant familiarity of their work. But, like it or not, pantomime is a staple of the British entertainment pantheon. Though hardly at the vanguard of musical invention, their “end-of-the-pier” appeal remained undimmed and saw continuing healthy audiences for live shows.</p>
<p>George Michael’s trajectory was different, and hinged on an overt effort to move from teen idol status with Wham to being taken seriously – his second solo album was titled <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/music/albumreviews/listen-without-prejudice-vol-1-19901004">Listen Without Prejudice</a> – as a songwriter and record producer. His success in doing so helped to seal the idea that crossing over between markets was a part of the pop process. </p>
<p>To an extent, his greatest lasting effect came outside of his music, though very much dependent on it, as his candour and humour in response to revelations about his sexuality drove forward the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2016/dec/26/george-michael-lgbt-rights-i-never-had-a-problem-with-being-gay">mainstream acceptance of gay pop icons</a>. Likewise, if his <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panayiotou_v_Sony_Music_Entertainment_(UK)_Ltd">lawsuit</a> against record label Sony was ultimately unsuccessful in court, his public battles helped to shine a light on the inequities of major label deals.</p>
<h2>Cultural currency of the mainstream</h2>
<p>Parfitt and Michael occupied different spaces within the mainstream, though illustrated just how wide it has become. If Status Quo were the exemplars of pre-punk 70s straight ahead rock shorn of frills, Michael’s tight productions laid down a marker for the glamour of 80s and 90s post-Thatcherite pop (somewhat ironically, given Wham’s <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/margaret-thatcher-pop-music-band-aid-geldof-protest-songs">support for striking miners</a> and the ambivalent stance on consumerism lying beneath the sheen of his music). </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/izGwDsrQ1eQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>But, despite the differences between Parfitt’s unadorned rhythm guitar chug and Michael’s crafted pop confections, their work was characterised by an underlying factor: accessibility – something that is often overlooked but deceptively difficult to achieve and a necessary condition for the mass appeal that they sustained.</p>
<p>Certainly the tragic, early passing of entertainers is nothing new. When <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/British_Music_Hall.html?id=mtKwBAAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">music hall singer Mark Sheridan</a> took his own life in 1918, it was after a period in the commercial and critical doldrums, as the popularity of music hall waned. Yet despite his comparative obscurity now, his hit “I Do Like to Be Beside the Seaside” has passed into the national consciousness.</p>
<p>Simon Frith – sociologist, music critic and founding chair of the Mercury Prize – <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Taking-Popular-Music-Seriously-Selected-Essays/Frith/p/book/9780754626794">has argued</a> that popular music helps us to negotiate the relationship between our inner and public lives – that: “Pop tastes do not just derive from our socially constructed identities; they also help to shape them”. From music hall through rock ‘n’ roll to Top of the Pops and televised extravaganzas such as Live Aid, one of pop’s abiding functions has been to serve as common cultural currency.</p>
<p>Status Quo and George Michael may not have been marked by Bowie’s chameleon-like propensity for redefining pop’s aesthetic limits. They may not have matched Cohen’s lyrical intricacy or Prince’s virtuosity. But large swaths of the British public will have danced and sung along enthusiastically and unironically to: “Whatever You Want” and “Wake Me Up Before You Go Go” – threaded through the fabric of their social lives, from school discos to Christmas parties and weddings. </p>
<p>If the bad news is that the loss of beloved entertainers appears remorseless, the good news is that this shows how our stock of shared cultural memories is larger and richer than ever before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Behr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>2016 has been a grim year for pop music, but the latest celebrity deaths highlight the depth of our rich popular culture.Adam Behr, Lecturer in Popular and Contemporary Music, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/705932016-12-26T21:54:36Z2016-12-26T21:54:36ZYear in Review: FactCheck and the weasel-words, cherry-picking and overstatements of 2016<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150852/original/image-20161220-24310-1gl71mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Conversation published 29 FactChecks over the eight week federal election campaign</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>2016 was the year of “<a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/word-of-the-year/word-of-the-year-2016">post-truth</a>” politics, of <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/dec/13/2016-lie-year-fake-news/">fake news</a> and “<a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/rendezview/out-of-the-way-logic-feelpinions-are-taking-over/news-story/6f4d0d5ba933b9a381b4581266fde0d1">feelpinions</a>”. But while facts may have fallen out of fashion abroad, the popularity of The Conversation’s FactCheck articles show that many Australians still expect and demand their politicians stick to some sort of mutually agreed upon reality.</p>
<p>Bald-faced lies are, thankfully, fairly rare in Australian politics. Being caught in an outright fib or blooper is still seen as shameful. The problem in Australia is that facts and statistics are frequently twisted to paint a misleading picture. </p>
<p>Weasel-words, cherry-picking and overstatements are common. Our politicians and lobby groups are masterful at disguising opinion and ideology as fact, and making statements that, ultimately, aren’t checkable. These tactics are harder to spot, but equally dangerous.</p>
<p>Sometimes FactCheck finds politicians and other public figures to be completely correct. We should recognise and commend leaders who use facts accurately, in context and tell the whole story. That’s when Australians have the best chance of making informed decisions about their country.</p>
<p>2016 was a federal election year in Australia, and our academic experts worked harder than ever during the marathon political campaign. We published 29 <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/election-factcheck-2016-27402">Election FactChecks</a> over the eight week campaign, nearly one every two business days – an impressive output from our experts given the rigour of The Conversation’s FactCheck <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-the-facts-maam-a-guide-to-the-conversations-factcheck-process-61158">process</a>. </p>
<p>We ask authors to double-check the numbers, scrutinise the fine print, play devil’s advocate, question their assumptions, produce charts, provide links, improve their sourcing, rewrite their copy for clarity – and then all FactChecks are blind reviewed. That means an independent expert academic who doesn’t know the identity of the lead author checks that the story is sound.</p>
<p>Throughout the year, we fact-checked claims about all the key issues making headlines in Australia, and cast a sceptical eye on politicians and public figures of all political stripes. <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/factcheck-qanda-6550">Our Q&A FactChecks</a>, in which we fact-checked comments made on the ABC TV show each week, commanded a large audience.</p>
<p>A few themes came up over and over again: <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-how-much-was-spent-on-the-cambodia-refugee-deal-and-how-many-were-settled-68807">refugees</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-what-are-the-real-numbers-on-refugees-and-other-migrants-coming-to-australia-66912">asylum seekers</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-do-welfare-recipients-owe-the-australian-government-about-3-5-billion-61906">welfare reform</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-has-the-job-market-got-so-bad-that-people-have-stopped-looking-for-work-67457">job market</a>, the state of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-what-are-the-facts-on-jobs-and-growth-in-australia-70114">economy</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-is-labor-planning-to-increase-taxes-by-100-billion-over-ten-years-59159">tax</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-does-australia-have-one-of-the-most-unequal-education-systems-in-the-oecd-58156">inequality</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-have-eight-of-australias-12-most-emission-intensive-power-stations-closed-in-the-last-five-years-65036">energy</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-do-australians-with-an-average-seafood-diet-ingest-11-000-pieces-of-plastic-a-year-55145">environment</a> to name a few. </p>
<p>You can read a list of our ten best-read FactChecks of 2016 at the end of this article. Some personal favourites that didn’t make the top ten include our 2016 <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-you-tell-fact-from-fiction-take-the-conversation-2016-factcheck-quiz-to-find-out-70212">FactCheck Quiz</a> produced by Deputy FactCheck Editor Lucinda Beaman; a FactCheck on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-do-refugees-cost-australia-100m-a-year-in-welfare-with-an-unemployment-rate-of-97-54395">welfare cost and unemployment rate of refugees</a>; a <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-suicide-one-of-the-leading-causes-of-maternal-death-in-australia-65336">handful</a> of FactChecks on <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-was-lyle-shelton-right-about-transgender-people-and-a-higher-suicide-risk-after-surgery-55573">suicide</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-do-eating-disorders-have-the-highest-mortality-rate-of-all-mental-illnesses-66495">risk</a>; one on how <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-is-australia-among-the-only-major-advanced-economies-where-pollution-levels-are-going-up-59731">emissions are tracking around the world</a>; a FactCheck on projected <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-as-the-climate-changes-are-750-million-refugees-predicted-to-move-away-from-flooding-63400">climate change refugee numbers</a>; a FactCheck on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-does-the-government-spend-more-on-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-discounts-than-on-child-care-or-higher-education-61009">“cost” of negative gearing</a>; an evidence-based analysis of <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-could-a-vote-among-under-30s-in-australia-possibly-deliver-a-greens-prime-minister-60256">whether a vote among under 30s could deliver a Greens prime minister</a>; and a FactCheck on <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-use-of-antibiotics-in-general-practice-20-above-the-oecd-average-68657">antibiotic overuse</a> in Australia. </p>
<p>FactCheck owes a debt of gratitude to our interns, who pore over transcripts, monitor the media and help track down expert authors to write the FactChecks. A special thanks to Jennifer Cooke, who helped coordinate FactCheck coverage as Deputy FactCheck Editor during the federal election and to the generous 3,500 readers who donated to a crowd-funding effort that allowed Lucinda Beaman to be hired as ongoing Deputy FactCheck Editor. </p>
<p>Most importantly, thank you to all our readers, who believed in 2016 that facts still matter.</p>
<h2>Top 10 best-read FactChecks of 2016</h2>
<ol>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-30-of-northern-territory-farmland-and-22-of-tasmanian-farmland-foreign-owned-65155">FactCheck: Is 30% of Northern Territory farmland and 22% of Tasmanian farmland foreign-owned?</a> By Bill Pritchard, University of Sydney, Erin Smith, University of the Sunshine Coast (reviewed by Jeffrey Wilson).</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-are-many-refugees-illiterate-and-innumerate-59584">Election FactCheck: are many refugees illiterate and innumerate?</a> By Georgina Ramsay, University of Newcastle (reviewed by Lucy Fiske).</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-has-the-nbn-been-delayed-59906">Election FactCheck Q&A: has the NBN been delayed?</a> By Rod Tucker, University of Melbourne (reviewed by Thas Ampalavanapillai Nirmalathas)</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-what-are-the-real-numbers-on-refugees-and-other-migrants-coming-to-australia-66912">FactCheck Q&A: what are the real numbers on refugees and other migrants coming to Australia?</a> Khanh Hoang, Australian National University (reviewed by Sara Davies)</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-is-the-australian-sex-party-right-about-religious-organisations-tax-and-record-keeping-61427">Election FactCheck: is the Australian Sex Party right about religious organisations, tax and record-keeping?</a> By Bronwen Dalton, University of Technology Sydney (reviewed by Ann O'Connell).</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-are-one-in-three-age-pensioners-living-under-the-poverty-line-65715">FactCheck Q&A: are one in three age pensioners living under the poverty line?</a> By Rafal Chomik, UNSW Australia (reviewed by Ben Phillips).</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-global-demand-for-coal-still-going-through-the-roof-60234">Election FactCheck Q&A: is global demand for coal still going through the roof?</a> By Lynette Molyneaux, The University of Queensland (reviewed by John Rolfe).</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-it-true-australias-unemployment-payment-level-hasnt-increased-in-over-20-years-59250">Election FactCheck Q&A: is it true Australia’s unemployment payment level hasn’t increased in over 20 years?</a> By Peter Whiteford, Australian National University (reviewed by Gerry Redmond).</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-australia-among-the-lowest-taxing-countries-in-the-oecd-59229">Election FactCheck Q&A: is Australia among the lowest-taxing countries in the OECD?</a> By Helen Hodgson, Curtin University (reviewed by Kevin Davis).</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-has-the-coalition-presided-over-the-most-sustained-fall-in-australian-living-standards-since-records-began-60327">Election FactCheck: Has the Coalition presided over the most sustained fall in Australian living standards since records began?</a> By Peter Whiteford, Australian National University (reviewed by Roger Wilkins).</p></li>
</ol>
<p>You can read all our 2016 FactChecks on our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/factcheck">FactCheck page</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Bald-faced lies are fairly rare in Australian politics but, in 2016, weasel-words and cherry-picking were common. Politicians and public figures are experts at disguising opinion and ideology as fact.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLucinda Beaman, FactCheck EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/707202016-12-23T09:35:58Z2016-12-23T09:35:58Z2016: a very bad year for women<p>On balance, 2016 was a year of highs and lows for women. The lows, however, have been of the “how-low-can-you-go” variety. In fact, there have been moments when it felt like the year of the anti-woman.</p>
<p>By the measure of women’s greater visibility in politics, 2016 has been a vintage year. I can’t think of another in which there has been so much conversation and public debate about women, ranging from the probing and aspirational to the prodding and vicious.</p>
<p>Gender (and sex) has dominated the news, with endless discussion of individual women leaders, of the women’s vote, of the gender gap, of tangible and figurative glass ceilings, of female body parts, and of women victims of violent crisis.</p>
<p>In Britain, the EU referendum campaign may have neglected <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36359632">gender issues</a>, but it also created opportunities for women. Four out of six panelists at the pre-referendum Wembley debate were women. Within a fortnight of the fateful Brexit vote, the Conservative Party produced its second woman Prime Minister in the form of Theresa May. For several weeks after the referendum, Angela Eagle challenged Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party. She was ultimately elbowed out by a man, but Labour in Scotland is led by a woman, as indeed, are all the <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/hilarywardle/epic-burns-night">main parliamentary parties</a> there.</p>
<p>Those who were musing about this possibly freakish phenomenon of the feminisation of politics wondered if what was really happening was that women were cleaning up a man-made mess. They suggested that these woman leaders could heal wounds after the testosterone-fueled war of words unleashed by a most polarising referendum campaign. </p>
<p>The keynotes of this rhetoric were women’s innate diplomacy and their essential motherly conciliation. This discourse echoed the post-war period and the 1920s, when women made a sincere effort to prevent another man-made war with a woman-made peace. In the 1920s, women mobilised for disarmament and to eliminate militarism from the school curriculum. The early women MPs strongly identified themselves with women’s peace initiatives.</p>
<p>Yet, it was the shocking assassination of MP Jo Cox that will forever serve as the most painful reminder of what 2016 has stood for, and no less what it represents for women in public life. Her murder by far-right adherent Thomas Mair should not be reduced to an act of sexism but anti-feminism and misogyny have always been intrinsically intertwined with <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Feminine_Fascism.html?id=4z6yVqP1NHYC&redir_esc=y">racism and xenophobia</a>.</p>
<p>The power and prejudice of 2016’s post-truth, angry politics, has made other women politicians vulnerable, too. Jewish women MPs in the UK have borne the brunt of both Labour’s confrontation with anti-Semitism in its ranks and of an emboldened far right. We saw this in the abuse suffered by Liverpool MP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2016/sep/13/louise-ellman-mp-liverpool-riverside-labour">Louise Ellman</a> from elements from within her own party, as well as the experience of Ruth Smeeth MP, who was subjected to a torrent of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/02/jewish-labour-mp-corbyn-must-name-and-shame-online-abusers">25,000 vile messages</a> after walking out of the launch of a report on anti-Semitism within Labour. Luciana Berger MP was the victim of systematic online racist abuse, her <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/neonazi-joshua-bonehillpaine-guilty-of-vile-antisemitic-campaign-against-mp-luciana-berger-a3414716.html">neo-Nazi stalker</a> finally convicted of these offences.</p>
<h2>One step forward, two steps to the right</h2>
<p>High profile women are inevitably more vulnerable. But does having women in top leadership positions promote the causes and concerns of most women? </p>
<p>Theresa May has deliberately identified herself with a certain brand of feminism that can be compatible with British Toryism. She <a href="https://www.women2win.com/">co-founded a campaign</a> for women’s political representation in 2005 and famously wore the t-shirt of the <a href="http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/">Fawcett Society</a> long before anyone was talking about her <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38287637">leather trousers</a>.</p>
<p>There was disappointment from many quarters that May did not appoint more women to her cabinet than her predecessor, but Margaret Thatcher is not her model for how to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/julie-v-gottlieb/theresa-may-margaret-thatcher_b_11065884.html">perform her gender</a> in office. While Thatcher was famously hostile to feminism, May is of a generation that more readily embraces feminist achievements, and she can work well with other women.</p>
<h2>Women in Europe</h2>
<p>In the 1930s, feminist internationalist and novelist Winifred Holtby was particularly alarmed about what authoritarianism and fascism meant for women. She noted that “whenever women hear political leaders call their sex important, they grow suspicious. In the importance of sex too often has lain the unimportance of the citizen, the worker, and the human being.” This rings true today. </p>
<p>Yet, remarkably, in 2016, the greatest success came to women on the right and far-right. Although Diane James lasted just 18 days as leader of UKIP, the party continues to regularly put its women forward for media appearances to feminise nationalism.</p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/angela-merkel-admits-mistakes-asylum-seekers-election">setbacks</a>, Angela Merkel still looks likely to be re-elected as German chancellor in 2017, while <a href="http://www.historymatters.group.shef.ac.uk/women-right-ascendancy-women-conservative-politics/">Beata Szydło</a> is prime minister in Poland, overseeing a disturbing slide <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-everyone-is-giving-poland-a-hard-time-53074">towards authoritarianism</a> – even if she herself is more the titular leader of the Law and Justice Party. </p>
<p>And of course, the increasing popularity of Marine Le Pen in France has been a major story for 2016. She remains a leading contender for the French presidency in 2017, so expect more from her before long. </p>
<h2>The biggest upset</h2>
<p>It hardly needs to be said that the greatest blow for women has been the American election. Even had Hillary Clinton won, the election campaign would have been traumatic enough for women: politically, sexually, psychologically, and emotionally.</p>
<p>Pollsters and pundits <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-year-of-the-woman-how-women-will-take-down-donald-trump-w444090">counted on the women’s vote</a> to take down Trump. Instead, this man, who has so openly looked down on women, will now do so from the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/commentisfree/2016/nov/16/why-did-women-vote-for-trump-because-misogyny-is-not-a-male-only-attribute">Oval Office</a>. The very notion of a “woman’s vote” is in tatters– for better and worse. When the realisation of Trump’s victory set in, faces were streaming with tears.</p>
<p>These tears were shed not merely because a preferred candidate lost but more so because the hopes of so many – accumulating for almost a century, since suffrage – had been so forcibly dashed. The glass ceiling has been fortified. Under a Trump presidency, the best women can expect is an ostentatiously gilded cage for the few who meet the former reality TV star and beauty contest judge’s exacting standards.</p>
<p>Historical reflection cannot offer future projection. However, the cycles of modern feminism are figured by the cresting and the crashing of waves. Tallying up women’s most newsworthy achievements and setbacks, 2016 has not been a good year for women and certainly not for feminism. It has been an anti-woman year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70720/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Gottlieb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It was a vintage year for women’s visibility, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.Julie Gottlieb, Reader in Modern History, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/707152016-12-22T13:01:47Z2016-12-22T13:01:47ZThe world’s words of the year pass judgement on a dark, surreal 2016<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151388/original/image-20161222-17318-12oqe5j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-268729262/stock-photo-definition-of-word-fascism-in-dictionary.html?src=TB94Y-RjmRgvTmBjOet2IA-1-53">aga7ta</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every December, lexicographers around the world choose their “words of the year”, and this year, perhaps more than ever, the stories these tell provide a fascinating insight into how we’ve experienced the drama and trauma of the last 12 months.</p>
<p>There was much potential in 2016. It was 500 years ago that Thomas More wrote his <a href="http://www.bl.uk/learning/histcitizen/21cc/utopia/more1/moreutopia.html">Utopia</a>, and January saw the launch of a year’s celebrations under the slogan “<a href="http://utopia2016.com">A Year of Imagination and Possibility</a>” – but as 2017 looms, this slogan rings hollow. Instead of utopian dreams, we’ve had a year of “post-truth” and “paranoia”, of “refugee” crises, “xenophobia” and a close shave with “fascism”. </p>
<p>Earlier in the year, a <a href="https://www.change.org/p/i-am-an-essex-girl-reclaim-essex-girl-and-remove-it-from-the-dictionary">campaign</a> was launched to have “Essex Girl” removed from the Oxford English Dictionary (OED). Those behind the campaign were upset at the derogatory definition – a young woman “characterised as unintelligent, promiscuous, and materialistic” – so wanted it to be expunged from the official record of the language. </p>
<p>The OED turned down the request, a <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/essex-girls-oxford-english-dictionary-insists-it-wont-remove-term-despite-campaign-a3378331.html">spokeswoman</a> explaining that since the OED is a historical dictionary, nothing is ever removed; its purpose, she said, is to describe the language as people use it, and to stand as a catalogue of the trends and preoccupations of the time. </p>
<p>The words of the year tradition began with the German <a href="http://www.dw.com/de/die-worte-des-jahres-1971-2015/a-18911548">Wort des Jahres</a> in the 1970s. It has since spread to other languages, and become increasingly popular the world over. Those in charge of the choices are getting more innovative: in 2015, for the first time, Oxford Dictionaries chose a pictograph as their “word”: the emoji for “<a href="http://blog.oxforddictionaries.com/2015/11/word-of-the-year-2015-emoji/">Face with Tears of Joy</a>”. </p>
<p>In 2016, however, the verbal was very much back in fashion. The results speak volumes.</p>
<h2>Dark days</h2>
<p>In English, there are a range of competing words, with all the major dictionaries making their own choices. Having heralded a post-language era last year, Oxford Dictionaries decided on “<a href="https://www.oxforddictionaries.com/press/news/2016/11/17/WOTY-16">post-truth</a>” this time, defining it as the situation when “objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”. In a year of evidence-light Brexit promises and Donald Trump’s <a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/9/26/13016146/donald-trump-liar-media">persistent lies and obfuscations</a>, this has a definite resonance. In the same dystopian vein, the Cambridge Dictionary chose “<a href="http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/paranoid-announced-as-the-cambridge-dictionary-word-of-the-year/">paranoid</a>”, while Dictionary.com went for “<a href="http://blog.dictionary.com/xenophobia/">xenophobia</a>”. </p>
<p>Merriam-Webster valiantly tried to turn back the tide of pessimism. When “fascism” looked set to win its online poll, it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/01/stop-fascism-becoming-word-of-the-year-urges-us-dictionary">tweeted</a> its readers imploring them to get behind something – anything – else. The plea apparently worked, and in the end “<a href="http://www.vox.com/culture/2016/12/20/14008046/word-of-the-year-surreal-fascism">surreal</a>” won the day. Apt enough for a year in which events time and again almost defied belief.</p>
<p>Collins, meanwhile, chose “<a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/word-lovers-blog/new/top-10-collins-words-of-the-year-2016,323,HCB.html">Brexit</a>”, a term which its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/nov/03/brexit-named-word-of-the-year-ahead-of-trumpism-and-hygge">spokesperson</a> suggested has become as flexible and influential in political discourse as “Watergate”. </p>
<p>Just as the latter spawned hundreds of portmanteau words whenever a political scandal broke, so Brexit begat <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/britains-eu-choice-brexit-or-bremain-1456499551">“Bremain”, “Bremorse” and “Brexperts”</a> – and will likely be adapted for other upcoming political rifts for many years to come. It nearly won out in Australia in fact, where “Ausexit” (severing ties with the British monarchy or the United Nations) was on the shortlist. Instead, the Australian National Dictionary went for <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/democracy-sausage-deemed-word-of-year-by-australian-national-dictionary-centre/news-story/1ce984e054f94f61324ab7e67392b323">“democracy sausage”</a> – the tradition of eating a barbecued sausage on election day. </p>
<p>Around the world, a similar pattern of politics and apprehension emerges. In France, the <em>mot de l'année</em> was <a href="http://www.festivaldumot.fr/article/votez/">“<em>réfugiés</em>”</a> (refugees); and in Germany <a href="http://gfds.de/aktionen/wort-des-jahres/">“<em>postfaktisch</em>”</a>, meaning much the same as “post-truth”. Swiss German speakers, meanwhile, went for <a href="http://www.20min.ch/community/stories/story/-Filterblase--ist-das-Wort-des-Jahres-13588184">“<em>Filterblase</em>”</a> (filter bubble), the idea that social media is creating <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-filter-bubble-isnt-just-facebooks-fault-its-yours-69664">increasingly polarised political communities</a>. </p>
<p>Switzerland’s Deaf Association, meanwhile, chose a Sign of the Year for the first time. Its choice was <a href="http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/sign-of-the-times_trump-chosen-as--sign-of--the-year--by-swiss-deaf-organisation/42766640">“Trump”</a>, consisting of a gesture made by placing an open palm on the top of the head, mimicking the president-elect’s extravagant hairstyle.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151387/original/image-20161222-17291-1oarhl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151387/original/image-20161222-17291-1oarhl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151387/original/image-20161222-17291-1oarhl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151387/original/image-20161222-17291-1oarhl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151387/original/image-20161222-17291-1oarhl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151387/original/image-20161222-17291-1oarhl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151387/original/image-20161222-17291-1oarhl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2016’s golden boy, as far as Japan’s concerned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-196597046/stock-photo-washington-may-27-2014-real-estate-mogul-donald-trump-demonstrates-that-the-hair-on-his-head-really-is-his-at-a-national-press-club-luncheon.html?src=2K8yaE8faanz2sHCZUFREQ-5-43">Albert H. Teich</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trump’s hair also featured in Japan’s choice for this year. Rather than a word, Japan chooses a kanji (Chinese character); 2016’s choice is “金” (<a href="http://en.rocketnews24.com/2016/12/12/gold-named-2016-kanji-of-the-year/">gold</a>). This represented a number of different topical issues: Japan’s haul of medals at the Rio Olympics, fluctuating interest rates, the gold shirt worn by singer and YouTube sensation <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W3sslyiUfg">Piko Taro</a>, and, inevitably, the colour of Trump’s hair.</p>
<p>And then there’s Austria, whose word is 51 letters long: <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austrian-academics-choose-bundespraesidentenstichwahlwiederholungsverschiebung-word-of-year-election-a7466176.html">“<em>Bundespräsidentenstichwahlwiederholungsverschiebung</em>”</a>. It means “the repeated postponement of the runoff vote for Federal President”. Referring to the seven months of votes, legal challenges and delays over the country’s presidential election, this again references an event that flirted with extreme nationalism and exposed the convoluted nature of democracy. As a new coinage, it also illustrates language’s endless ability to creatively grapple with unfolding events.</p>
<p>Which brings us, finally, to “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/19/unpresidented-trump-word-definition">unpresidented</a>”, a neologism Donald Trump inadvertently created when trying to spell “unprecedented” in a tweet attacking the Chinese. At the moment, it’s a word in search of a meaning, but the possibilities it suggests seem to speak perfectly to the history of the present moment. And depending on what competitors 2017 throws up, it could well emerge as a future candidate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Seargeant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All over the world, people are trying to boil down their experiences of 2016 into a single word. The results speak for themselves.Philip Seargeant, Senior Lecturer in Applied Linguistics, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/702122016-12-16T03:31:24Z2016-12-16T03:31:24ZCan you tell fact from fiction? Take The Conversation 2016 FactCheck quiz to find out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150436/original/image-20161216-26056-1pmnjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who got their facts right in 2016?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://urbanlight.net.au/">Chris Zissiadis, urbanlight photography</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>2016 was the year that gave us “post-truth” as the <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/word-of-the-year/word-of-the-year-2016">Oxford Dictionaries Word of the Year</a>, assurances that people “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGgiGtJk7MA">have had enough of experts</a>”, and an increasingly powerful tide of <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/dec/13/2016-lie-year-fake-news/">fake news</a>. </p>
<p>Through all this, FactCheck ploughed on. Our experts fact-checked the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/election-factcheck-2016-27402">2016 Australian federal election</a>, claims from lobby groups, and assertions across the political spectrum. All FactChecks are <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-the-facts-maam-a-guide-to-the-conversations-factcheck-process-61158">blind reviewed</a> by a second expert to ensure accuracy.</p>
<p>We think facts matter more than ever. So who got it right and who got it wrong in 2016?</p>
<p>Take The Conversation’s 2016 FactCheck quiz to find out. </p>
<iframe width="100%" height="1000" id="enp-quiz-iframe-266" class="enp-quiz-iframe" src="https://engagingnewsproject.org/quiz-embed/266"></iframe>
<p>Read the full FactCheck articles here:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Would backpackers be <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-would-backpackers-be-better-off-working-in-australia-than-nz-england-or-canada-69332">better off working in Australia</a> than NZ, England or Canada?</p></li>
<li><p>Have average out-of-pocket costs for GP visits <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-have-average-out-of-pocket-costs-for-gp-visits-risen-almost-20-under-the-coalition-66278">risen almost 20%</a> under the Coalition?</p></li>
<li><p>Has the Grand Mufti of Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-has-the-grand-mufti-of-australia-condemned-terrorist-attacks-overseas-62688">condemned terrorist attacks overseas</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Do eating disorders have the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-do-eating-disorders-have-the-highest-mortality-rate-of-all-mental-illnesses-66495">highest mortality rate</a> of all mental illnesses?</p></li>
<li><p>How unusual is <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-how-unusual-is-compulsory-voting-and-do-90-of-new-zealanders-vote-without-it-62443">compulsory voting</a>, and do 90% of New Zealanders vote without it?</p></li>
<li><p>Are one in three age pensioners <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-are-one-in-three-age-pensioners-living-under-the-poverty-line-65715">living under the poverty line</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Have eight of Australia’s 12 most emission intensive power stations <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-have-eight-of-australias-12-most-emission-intensive-power-stations-closed-in-the-last-five-years-65036">closed in the last five years</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Does the government spend <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-does-the-government-spend-3-billion-each-year-on-the-offshore-asylum-seeker-detention-system-61677">$3 billion each year</a> on the offshore asylum seeker detention system?</p></li>
<li><p>Is the Australian Sex Party right about <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-is-the-australian-sex-party-right-about-religious-organisations-tax-and-record-keeping-61427">religious organisations, tax and record-keeping</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Is <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-is-crime-getting-worse-in-australia-60119">crime getting worse</a> in Australia?</p></li>
<li><p>Is <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-global-demand-for-coal-still-going-through-the-roof-60234">global demand for coal</a> still going through the roof?</p></li>
<li><p>Is Australia among the <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-australia-among-the-lowest-taxing-countries-in-the-oecd-59229">lowest-taxing countries in the OECD</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Is a week’s worth of Newstart equal to what a politician can claim for <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-is-a-weeks-worth-of-newstart-equal-to-what-a-politician-can-claim-for-one-night-in-canberra-64598">one night in Canberra</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Is Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-australias-foreign-debt-nearly-1-trillion-up-from-74-billion-last-year-60250">foreign debt nearly $1 trillion</a>, up from $74 billion last year?</p></li>
<li><p>Has the <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-has-the-nbn-been-delayed-59906">NBN been delayed</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Is Australia the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-is-australia-the-world-leader-in-household-solar-power-56670">world leader in household solar power</a>?</p></li>
<li><p>Has the level of casual employment in Australia stayed steady for the past <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-has-the-level-of-casual-employment-in-australia-stayed-steady-for-the-past-18-years-56212">18 years</a>? </p></li>
<li><p>Can foreign seafarers be paid <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-can-foreign-seafarers-be-paid-2-an-hour-to-work-in-australian-waters-under-laws-passed-by-labor-55939">$2 an hour</a> to work in Australian waters, under laws passed by Labor?</p></li>
<li><p>Does Australia run one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-australia-run-one-of-the-most-generous-student-loan-schemes-in-the-world-52696">most generous student loan schemes</a> in the world?</p></li>
<li><p>Are Australians <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-are-australians-paying-twice-as-much-for-electricity-as-americans-69980">paying twice as much</a> for electricity as Americans?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>For all our FactCheck coverage, click <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/factcheck">here</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Who got it right and who got it wrong in 2016? Take The Conversation’s 2016 FactCheck quiz to find out.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLucinda Beaman, FactCheck EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/699522016-12-07T11:35:43Z2016-12-07T11:35:43ZWhy Lord of the Flies is the perfect Christmas gift for 2016<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148872/original/image-20161206-25768-acg8mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alaina_marie/4409427873">Alaina Buzas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s the story of a society in which democracy descends into tribalism and tyranny. One of a civilisation built by those committed to the rule of law who turn on each other, scapegoating the marginalised and powerless. Ultimately, it’s a reminder of a human barbarism lying just beneath the fragile veneer of decency.</p>
<p>Sound familiar? That’s right: it’s the plot of Lord of the Flies, a novel about a group of English boys who survive a plane crash and are marooned on an island in the South Pacific. After a short period of harmony, a power struggle between the two leaders, Ralph and Jack, causes the group to split. Jack wins out by promising to hunt and kill a common enemy – the strange phantom living in the jungle known only as the Beast. It’s a successful campaign of fear and division.</p>
<p>Lord of the Flies was first published in 1954, largely in response to the rise of Nazism and the horrors of World War II. And yet, in many ways, it speaks directly to the world of 2016, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/austerity-2893">austerity</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/refugee-crisis-20183">refugee crisis</a>, Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump have emboldened nationalist fervour and stoked societal fragmentation.</p>
<p>The racialised language of tribal “savagery” in the novel quite rightly makes contemporary readers bristle. It marks author William Golding’s failure to move beyond a fundamentally eurocentric and colonialist view of the world. But ultimately, the book’s message is that “savagery” is universal. It is not racially or nationally defined. It’s a moral that encourages us to reflect on just how far-right extremism has crept back into mainstream politics throughout Europe and America.</p>
<p>The far right traffics in the populist language of national allegiance to legitimate racism. America’s so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/alt-right-31564">alt-right</a>, France’s National Front, UKIP and xenophobic Leavers in Britain all feed off dissatisfaction with globalisation to create enemies within. The solution to complex economic and political realities for these groups is as simple as hunting the Beast. Jack lives on in Trump, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/marine-le-pen-2938">Le Pen</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/nigel-farage-5524">Farage</a>.</p>
<h2>The voice of reason</h2>
<p>In counterpoint to Jack’s sloganeering and scaremongering, Lord of the Flies gives us Piggy and Simon. The former is a firm believer in scientific progress, but he is also aware that human progress will be halted if “we get frightened of people”. Piggy is debilitated when the boys steal his glasses – his means of vision and clarity – and use them to start a fire. They instantly lose control of the flames, leading to the destruction of part of their new home. Rather than representing the first act of a united civilisation, the making of fire signals the disunity that splits the group and leads, finally, to Piggy’s death at the hands of Jack’s tribe.</p>
<p>If Piggy is “progress” then Simon is “reason”. He knows that the Beast isn’t real and is in fact borne of the boys’ own fear. “However Simon thought of the beast,” we’re told, “there rose before his inward sight the picture of a human at once heroic and sick.” Despite this insight, Simon is regarded as weak and is shunned.</p>
<p>After a lone expedition, he discovers that the Beast is no more than a dead airman – a casualty of the war raging far off in the distance, whose parachute has swept him onto the island. Simon returns to camp to share the news, but the boys’ imagination awakens a blind desire for blood. They no longer see a fellow human being, only a threat to their society. Simon’s screams are drowned out by the “tearing of teeth and claws”.</p>
<p>During his 1962 lecture tour of American universities, Golding discussed his reasons for writing Lord of the Flies:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>My book was to say: you think that now the [Second World War] is over and an evil thing destroyed, you are safe because you are naturally kind and decent. But I know why the thing rose in Germany. I know it could happen in any country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So far, so bleak. And yet, while Golding depicts humankind’s propensity for prejudice, there is a small glimmer of hope. After fleeing the manhunt ordered by Jack, Ralph encounters a uniformed naval officer whose vessel has landed after seeing the smoke rising from the scorched island. As Ralph weeps “for the end of innocence”, the officer turns around to let his eyes rest on his warship in the distance. This final image of the book is a moment of self-reflection. In the savagery and environmental catastrophe of the boys’ rudimentary civilisation, the adult world is afforded a vision of its own folly.</p>
<p>The moral of Lord of the Flies isn’t just that barbarity knows no borders. It’s also that it can be prevented from flourishing through the commitment to a shared humanity. “If humanity has a future on this planet of a hundred million years,” said Golding in his 1962 lecture, “it is unthinkable that it should spend those aeons in a ferment of national self-satisfaction and chauvinistic idiocies.”</p>
<p>The novel may not be a heart-warming Christmas tale, but it gifts us an unflinching portrayal of a society driven by fear. For readers in 2016, it remains both an urgent warning and an invocation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Whittle receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>The famous story of a group of schoolboys trapped on an island is more than a little reminiscent of the real world right now.Matthew Whittle, Teaching Fellow in English (Contemporary and Postcolonial), University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/525562015-12-31T09:51:37Z2015-12-31T09:51:37ZHow Auld Lang Syne switched tunes en route to world domination<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106689/original/image-20151218-27894-hxv5zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All together now ...</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/life_of_gillman/341987969/in/photolist-wdM7i-dGepBz-pg8133-5QzBqE-87k3t-6NNd29-FhuAF-7rZ1gM-9vvnhi-5RRyfQ-7Yifj-63kb7D-4iWgMU-98bByv-6NNbVQ-tes2qs-tw49dX-teAxZi-sz2wC9-tw4bgV-tw44TV-tw3zRH-tw3vt4-szdLTR-tert55-tw3wTt-ttHjvJ-tw45pe-8LJrfa-ttHjrL-tw8Ckg-e4EBfr-4k7MQ6-terGcY-tw87FB-teAqNz-ttHUAC-tw8Lg6-tw4626-sz2zbq-tvKxiC-tet36q-bgrLB2-6thYeZ-bi8F4k-6ugQAY-dFxpY8-dFxpZ4-dFxpxz-p1J3aH">Matthew Goodman</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Auld Lang Syne was famously written by the Scottish national bard, <a href="http://www.robertburns.org">Robert Burns</a>. What is less well known is that the melody was not the one he intended. The one that became famous was first attached to the song in the late 1790s and Burns, who died in 1796, knew nothing about it. </p>
<p>The man who published the soon-to-be-famous song was an Edinburgh song editor, <a href="http://www.robertburns.org/encyclopedia/ThomsonGeorge1757-1851.858.shtml">George Thomson</a>. Burns had told him a few years earlier that a melody was usually his starting point for writing a song. Yet his inspiration in 1788 when he wrote Auld Lang Syne, which translates roughly as Old Time’s Sake, was actually not a melody but an <a href="http://digital.nls.uk/broadsides/broadside.cfm/id/14548">existing song</a> with the same opening line – “Should auld acquaintance be forgot”. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106690/original/image-20151218-27884-i1kgyt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Yer bard’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=robert+burns&hl=en&biw=1440&bih=762&site=webhp&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiM1sDW8OXJAhVF0hoKHaFZBpgQ_AUIBigB#q=robert+burns&hl=en&tbm=isch&tbs=sur:fc&imgrc=x_pR4TJH26J-_M%3A">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scholars have dated versions as far back as the 16th century, to a song called <a href="http://www.robertburns.org/encyclopedia/AuldLangSyne.5.shtml">Auld Kyndnes Foryett</a>. Burns himself would have known several versions that were popular in print and performance throughout the 18th century. His song is much closer to these versions than the 16th-century original. <a href="http://www.themorgan.org/collection/Auld-Lang-Syne/3">One of these</a>, by the poet Allan Ramsay, is set against a backdrop of war and talks of the parting of lovers. Burns typically opens this out and makes it more universal. </p>
<p>When he sent his version of Auld Lang Syne to his great friend Frances Dunlop in 1788, he told her he’d heard an old man singing it. There’s no evidence of who this man might have been – and Burns may even have fabricated the story to show how close he was to popular culture.</p>
<h2>The melody switches</h2>
<p>When Auld Lang Syne was first published in the Scots Musical Museum collection in 1796, it was joined to a rather slow and haunting tune. This melody really brings out an element of sadness in the text. It has found new popularity in recent years, but we don’t know whether Burns chose it or not. He told George Thomson in 1793 that he didn’t think much of the tune commonly sung to existing versions of the song. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/86_tlA9maA0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Thomson needed no more encouragement to switch to the melody that we know today. Much more celebratory in feel, it had appeared in some earlier 18th-century fiddle collections and was often referred to as The Miller’s Wedding or The Miller’s Daughter. By the time Thomson had made the decision to marry the tune to Burns’ text, the poet had died and there was no chance of asking his opinion on the matter. But certainly Burns would have known it, since he wrote another song called <a href="http://www.robertburns.org/works/372.shtml">O Can Ye Labour Lea (1792)</a> for a variant of the same tune. </p>
<p>Thomson characteristically forged ahead and sent the tune to Vienna, where the Bohemian composer <a href="http://www.britannica.com/biography/Leopold-Kozeluch">Leopold Koželuch</a> set it for voice, piano, violin and cello. Auld Lang Syne then appeared in Thomson’s <a href="http://www.abebooks.co.uk/Select-Collection-Original-Scottish-Airs-Voice/283962004/bd">Select Collection of Original Scottish Airs</a> in 1799, set to the famous tune for the first time. From then on, it gathered popular momentum across the British isles and beyond through social gatherings – often Masonic ones – and in many theatrical productions. </p>
<h2>Nae gowans, nae stowps</h2>
<p>When we chant Auld Lang Syne this New Year, we’ll probably sing only a couple of Burns’ original verses. We’ll leave out the drinking verse where we fill our “pint stowp” (pint cup) and the rather affectionate verses about “paidl’d in the burn” (paddled in the stream) or “pu'ing the gowans fine” (picked the daisies fine). Instead we’ll concentrate only on looking back, remembering fondly and joining hands of friendship. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/14mFabPxk80?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Why the song became world famous is still something of a mystery, though all that socialising and theatre-going in the 19th century must have helped. Burns had died in considerable debt and it really is too bad that performing rights were a thing of the future. As many will be aware, Happy Birthday <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/23/us-judge-rules-happy-birthday-is-public-domain-throws-out-copyright-claim">has been</a> a gold mine for Warner Music over the years. While Auld Lang Syne sits right beside it as one of the most popular songs of all time, it never made any royalties for anyone. </p>
<p><em>There is a <a href="http://burnsc21.glasgow.ac.uk">virtual exhibition</a> about Auld Lang Syne on the University of Glasgow project website, Editing Robert Burns for the 21st Century.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52556/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsteen is currently involved in a project funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council called Editing Robert Burns for the 21st Century. </span></em></p>The great Scottish ode to the passing years may never have become a global hit had an Edinburgh lothario not changed the recipe.Kirsteen McCue, Professor of Scottish Literature and Song Culture, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/526572015-12-30T19:50:34Z2015-12-30T19:50:34ZWas 2015 such a terrible year? And what will 2016 look like?<p>Well Santa has come and gone, at least for the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/11518702/Mapped-What-the-worlds-religious-landscape-will-look-like-in-2050.html">largest proportion </a>of the world’s population. And, as we reach the end of the year, it is inevitably time to review recent trends and the prospects for 2016.</p>
<h2>By many standards, 2015 has been a terrible year</h2>
<p>The war in Syria and Iraq worsened as the number of war casualties <a href="http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/victims/death-toll/">grew</a> and its consequences spread. First, to Europe’s shores, with horrendous attacks on Paris at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-kind-of-toughness-we-need-now-36037">beginning</a> and near the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-the-war-with-is-enters-a-new-stage-50709">end</a> of the year. And then it spread to America with the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/12030160/California-shooting-Multiple-victims-reported-in-San-Bernardino-live.html">attack</a> in San Bernardino.</p>
<p>The flow of refugees fleeing from the Middle East, Afghanistan and Eritrea became a tidal wave as the number of internally displaced persons and refugees reached an all-time <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/558193896.html">high</a>. Some European governments, like <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/08/germany-on-course-to-accept-one-million-refugees-in-2015">Germany</a>, found their soul when it came to accepting these refugees. Others lost <a href="http://wpo.st/nW5y0">theirs</a> – if they ever had one. </p>
<p>Back in the US, some used their presidential campaign as an opportunity to tap the kind of nativist impulse that periodically <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-time-america-finally-took-a-chance-on-syrias-refugees-47452">overwhelms the country</a> when its national security is threatened. Many Republicans supported <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/12/10/poll-finds-republican-support-for-donald-trumps-ban-on-muslims-coming-to-u-s/?_r=0">banning Muslims</a> from entering the United States. Others favored registering those already domiciled.</p>
<p>As all this was happening, the world’s governments <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/world/middleeast/us-foreign-arms-deals-increased-nearly-10-billion-in-2014.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share">sold more arms</a> than ever. And US-Chinese relations became increasingly <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/16/world/asia/us-navy-commander-implies-china-has-eroded-safety-of-south-china-sea.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share">tense</a> over the revelation that China was building islands in the South China Sea. </p>
<h2>But there have been some bright spots</h2>
<p>We should remember that wasn’t all bad news. America’s <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-cuba-reach-agreement-to-establish-formal-diplomatic-relations-1435702347">rapprochement</a> with Cuba has potentially eradicated one of the few remaining vestiges of the Cold War. And while the jury is still out, the <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/pressroom/press-release/2015-07-14/P5-Plus-1-Nations-and-Iran-Reach-Historic-Nuclear-Deal">P5+1 agreement</a> with Iran offers the prospect that the West will avert a damaging conventional war. </p>
<p>More importantly, the number of people living in extreme poverty declined again, <a href="http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/poverty.shtml">falling to 14% in 2015</a>, from nearly 50% a generation ago. And the international community reached an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/13/paris-climate-deal-cop-diplomacy-developing-united-nations">environmental agreement</a> in Paris. While critics may rightly contend that it is inadequate, in the words of <a href="http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/l/laotzu137141.html">Lao Tzu</a>, “the journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.” </p>
<p>Finally, if the Nigerian president is to be believed, Boko Haram has been “<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35173618">defeated</a>,” at least technically. If true, and that is a big “if,” it offers some inspiration for all those governments dealing with radicalism and terrorism.</p>
<h2>What of last year’s predictions?</h2>
<p>At this time last year, I offered my <a href="https://theconversation.com/around-the-world-in-2015-the-big-stories-predicted-35842">predictions</a> for 2015. </p>
<p>I suggested that the US would increase its ground force combat military presence in Iraq and Syria. That proved <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/middleeast/us-increases-special-operations-forces-fighting-isis-in-iraq.html">true</a>. I also predicted that the war would come to Europe and that Europe would join the war – although France and Britain have stuck to an air war so far, and not ground troops as I suggested. I predicted that American relations with Russia would worsen, which they <a href="http://www.eurasianet.org/node/76136">have</a>; and that the number of migrants and refugees fleeing to Europe would grow – as they did, with more than a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911">million</a> arriving. I also predicted that the major powers would reach a deal with Iran. Finally, I suggested that the dollar would strengthen against other major currencies. It <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/business/dollars-surge-against-other-currencies-weighs-down-united-states-economy.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-5&action=click&contentCollection=Business%20Day&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article">did</a>.</p>
<p>But before I get too impressed with myself, I should note that my long shots proved to be – well, long shots. Benjamin Netanyahu is still in power and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has remained in a quagmire. North Korea is as isolated and threatening as ever. And, with the exception of Cuba, the jury is still out on improved US relations with Latin America – although the election of new right wing governments in <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/11/mauricio-macri-elected-argentinas-next-president">Argentina</a> and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-win-and-dethrone-nicolas-maduro-after-17-years-of-socialist-rule-a6762946.html">Venezuela</a> suggests that may materialize.</p>
<p>And I missed so many other major stories.</p>
<p>So what of 2016? Here are five possible story lines.</p>
<h2>A muddled, fragile agreement, of sorts, is reached in Syria – one that excludes the Islamic State</h2>
<p>It is the turn of the year and still the season of goodwill, So let’s start off with an optimistic, if some would say unrealistic, prediction. An agreement will be reached. It is presaged by a growth in violence as all parties push to secure more territory before it takes effect. And it may vaguely mention power transition. But it promises that some day there will be an election, which Bashar Al-Assad will win because – sadly – he has more domestic <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/bashar-al-assad-has-more-popular-support-than-the-western-backed-opposition-poll/5495643">support</a> that his critics are willing to acknowledge. Any ceasefire is repeatedly broken. Long shot? ISIS will informally, de facto, respect the deal because it faces defeat if it continues its efforts to expand.</p>
<h2>The US will accept some Syrian refugees – but deport many more Hispanic immigrants</h2>
<p>President Obama has made it clear that he will accept more Syrians – even in what are pathetically small numbers – despite proposed <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/house/260782-house-defies-obama-approves-bill-halting-syrian-refugees">congressional legislation</a> that seeks to do the opposite. </p>
<p>One nice thing about being in your last year in office is that you can often ignore <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-majority-americans-oppose-accepting-syrian-refugees-n465816">public opinion</a>, as the president wants to do in admitting these refugees. But administration officials from the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency have made it just as clear that they intend to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/25/us/politics/us-plans-raids-in-new-year-to-fight-surge-in-border-crossings.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share">round up and deport</a> many more undocumented families, hoping to discourage a renewed surge in illegal border crossings. </p>
<p>Obama may want to go down in history as a president who was gracious in <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/11/obama-syrian-refugees/417222/">accepting</a> the Syrians. But his treatment of Latin Americans will certainly add to his reputation as the great deporter, having done so to nearly two million people in total and more people in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/07/us/more-deportations-follow-minor-crimes-data-shows.html">2014</a> than any president in American history. The only good news for Democrats is that the presidential candidates will be able to separate themselves from his policy by heavily criticizing him for his actions.</p>
<h2>The Arctic will become the new frontier</h2>
<p>The pressure to drill for oil in the Arctic may have lessened as prices have fallen. But global climate change means there is no prospect of the refreezing of huge swathes of the Arctic any time soon. So the Arctic is becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-arctic-melts-the-us-needs-to-pay-attention-35578">an increasingly important waterway</a> and its abundant natural resources are all the more accessible. The Russians realize this. So they are militarizing their presence in the Arctic. And they are constructing a new generation of <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/russia-and-china-in-the-arctic-is-the-us-facing-an-icebreaker-gap/">super-nuclear icebreakers</a> to ensure they have access to the Arctic’s waters. </p>
<p>In contrast, the US is woefully <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-arctic-melts-the-us-needs-to-pay-attention-35578">underprepared</a> to engage in the region. It does have an embryonic policy. But as President Obama’s visit to the Arctic’s fringes made clear, it is primarily an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/opinion/mr-obamas-urgent-arctic-message.html">economic and environmental</a> one. Not a military, one. America, for example, has no comparable icebreakers to those being developed by the Russians.</p>
<p>The remaining member states of the Arctic Council are worried by Russia’s behavior – and <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/why-is-the-plan-near-alaska/">China is lurking</a> as it recognizes the significance of these emergent seas lanes to its global trade. It would be nice to think a grand agreement could be reached on how to reconcile every side’s interests. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/under-the-sea-russia-china-and-american-control-of-the-waterways-50442">evidence about disputes</a> stretching from the South China Sea to the Black Sea suggests that is unlikely. </p>
<p>Watch for maps of the Arctic Circle on your TV screens soon.</p>
<h2>Closer to home – Donald Trump will not be the Republican candidate</h2>
<p>There is a long history of loud populists who know how to tap into the minority of voters in democracies who resort to nativism when they feel economic insecurity and who feel free to express racist impulses. They look for a powerful leader. Broderick Crawford depicted such a persona beautifully in the movie of Robert Penn Warren’s <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0041113/">All the King’s Men</a>. </p>
<p>But a recent <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2311">poll</a> suggests that half of American voters say they would be embarrassed to have Donald Trump as president. It reveals that he has the highest unfavorability rating of any candidate among prospective voters, and that other candidates are closing the gap on his lead among Republicans.</p>
<p>Trump may yet win in Iowa. But Iowa’s Republicans have proved very bad at picking presidential nominees. Their last two picks were Rich Santorum and, before that, Mike Huckabee.</p>
<p>Indeed, the American system is built to withstand the kind of buffeting caused by Trump’s kind of candidacy. And as the Republican field narrows, and Americans actually begin to focus on the presidential election, many senior <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/opinion/no-donald-trump-wont-win.html">analysts</a> believe that Trump’s star will wane. Indeed, despite his astonishing self-promotion and evident triumphalism, if held today, Trump would <a href="http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernie-would-do-better-hillary-2016-race-against-trump-national-poll-finds">lose an election </a>to either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders handily. Many Republican voters, if only because of their loathing of Hillary Clinton, want to back a winner. </p>
<p>I am not imprudent enough to suggest who the Republican candidate will be. In may be a centrist such as Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or, as the Democrats would prefer, a more radical Republican such as Ted Cruz. But I suspect that Trump’s momentum will abruptly halt as the long primary process unfolds.</p>
<h2>But yes, Hillary will be the Democratic candidate – and will be elected president</h2>
<p>There it is. I said it. There is nothing like putting your reputation on the line in print. Despite her immense baggage and no shortage of possible trip wires between now and election day, I believe Clinton will be the first female president. America’s shifting demographics favor her, given the continued Republican missteps in alienating America’s growing minority electorate. And if elected, her foreign policy will be a little more robust and muscular than Barack Obama’s – signaling a return to forthright American leadership, rather than a <a href="http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/survival/sections/2015-1e95/survival--global-politics-and-strategy-october-november-2015-3ec2/57-5-11-reich-and-dombrowski-d455">strategy of sponsorship</a>. This will mean a greater military engagement in the Middle East; more negotiations with the Russians and the Chinese on a variety of issues; and more money spent on America’s diplomatic services, a key component of what Clinton has referred to as “<a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/3/hillary-clinton-smart-show-respect-even-enemies/">smart power</a>.” She will use husband Bill as foreign emissary, generating the kind of goodwill that Barack Obama enjoyed in Europe and Africa in the early days of his presidency.</p>
<p>Then again, I left Britain in the early 1980s believing that Margaret Thatcher would only last a year or two as Britain’s prime minister. She was Britain’s longest serving prime minister of the twentieth century. So you can be forgiven for dismissing that prediction.</p>
<p>I conclude on a more joyful note. May 2016 bring us all health, prosperity and love – and the time to enjoy them all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52657/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Well Santa has come and gone, at least for the largest proportion of the world’s population. And, as we reach the end of the year, it is inevitably time to review recent trends and the prospects for 2016…Simon Reich, Professor in The Division of Global Affairs and The Department of Political Science, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.