tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/2017-34128/articles2017 – The Conversation2018-01-12T01:09:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/899222018-01-12T01:09:23Z2018-01-12T01:09:23ZWill elections in 2018 see 2017’s left-wing revival continue?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201728/original/file-20180112-101511-owlnjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NZ Labour had been polling in the mid-20s before Jacinda Ardern became its leader and eventually won the 2017 election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2018 there will be elections in the Australian states of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, as well as in Italy, the US and Mexico.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Essential-Report_statevoting_Dec2017-1.pdf">Essential</a> has released polling for the five mainland Australian states, conducted from October to December. Figures are given by month for the three eastern seaboard states.</p>
<p>In South Australia, Labor led 51-49 in October to December, a one-point gain for the Liberals since July to September. Primary votes were 34% Labor (down three), 31% Liberals (up one), 22% for Nick Xenophon’s SA-BEST (up four) and 8% Greens (up two). The South Australian election will be held on March 17.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/nick-xenophon-could-be-south-australias-next-premier-while-turnbull-loses-his-25th-successive-newspoll-89290">Newspoll</a> had SA-BEST at 32% from polling conducted in the same period as Essential. Essential is assuming SA-BEST preferences flow to the Liberals at a 60-40 rate, but at the 2016 federal election, these preferences flowed to Labor at a 60-40 rate. Essential’s justification is that the Liberals have lost far more primary votes than Labor since the 2014 state election.</p>
<p>In Victoria, the Coalition led 51-49 in December, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November. Primary votes were 46% Coalition (up three), 37% Labor (steady) and 9% Greens (down one). For the October to December period, Labor was just ahead, 51-49. The Victorian election will be held November 24.</p>
<p>The Age commissioned <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/poll-shows-african-youth-crime-a-key-issue-and-andrews-better-to-deal-with-it-20180107-h0enyq.html">ReachTEL polls</a> of the Labor-held Victorian seats of Tarneit and Cranbourne on January 5. On the <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/01/10/new-year-news-week-two/">primary votes</a>, there is a substantial anti-Labor swing in Tarneit, but little swing in Cranbourne. </p>
<p>There were many questions in the ReachTEL polls on youth crime. About two-thirds in both seats said the main youth crime issue was African gangs, and more than 55% said they were less likely to go out at night. A positive for Labor was that Premier Daniel Andrews had a large lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy on dealing with crime.</p>
<p>In the New South Wales Essential poll, Labor led 52-48 in December, a three-point gain for Labor since November. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (down three), 40% Labor (up three) and 9% Greens (steady). For October to December, Labor led 51-49.</p>
<p>I believe this is the first time Labor has led in a NSW state poll since shortly after the 2007 state election. The next NSW election will be held in March 2019.</p>
<p>In Queensland, Labor led 55-45 in December, a four-point gain for Labor since the November election. In Western Australia, Labor led 57-43 in October to December, a three-point gain for Labor since July to September.</p>
<p>The Tasmanian election is likely to be held in March, and it appears <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-a-majority-in-queensland-as-polling-in-victoria-shows-a-tie-88692">Labor is ahead</a> under its popular leader Rebecca White.</p>
<p>The Italian election will be held on March 4. 37% of seats in both chambers of the parliament will be elected using first-past-the-post voting, while the rest use proportional representation. </p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018">Polling</a> gives the right-wing coalition about 37%, the left-wing coalition about 27%, and the left-wing populist Five Star Movement about 28%. As the left is more split than the right, the right will have an advantage in the first-past-the-post seats, though it will probably be short of an overall majority.</p>
<p>The Mexican election will be held on July 1. The president is elected by first-past-the-post, and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Mexican_general_election,_2018">left-wing candidate</a>, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is currently ahead. By antagonising Mexicans, US President Donald Trump could cause the election of a left-winger who would strongly oppose the proposed border wall.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a> currently gives Democrats a 11-point lead over Republicans in the race for the US Congress. Midterm elections will be held in early November, in which all 435 House of Representatives members and one-third of the 100 Senators are up for election. The Senate seats up this year went to Democrats by 25-8 in 2012, and a few Democrats will be defending states Trump won easily in 2016.</p>
<p>Even though Republicans only have a 51-49 Senate majority, the House of Representatives is more likely to switch party control than the Senate.</p>
<h2>Left-wing parties performed better than expected in 2017 elections</h2>
<p>In 2016, Trump was elected US president, and the UK voted to leave the European Union. Trump and Brexit were triumphs for the populist right, and it was expected that the left would also struggle in 2017. However, in both Australian and overseas elections held in 2017, the left generally performed better than expected.</p>
<p>At the March 2017 Western Australian election, Labor won a landslide, with 41 of the 59 lower house seats.</p>
<p>At the November Queensland election, Labor won a majority, and One Nation won just one seat. There had been much speculation that One Nation would win many seats and hold the balance of power.</p>
<p>A year after Trump’s victory, US Democrats easily won the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections. In the Alabama Senate byelection, Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama,_2017">by a 50.0-48.3 margin</a>, overturning Trump’s 62-34 Alabama margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016. </p>
<p>Jones was sworn in as a US senator on January 3, replacing Luther Strange, who had been appointed by the Alabama governor after Jeff Sessions resigned to become attorney-general. Republicans now have a 51-49 majority in the US Senate, down from 52-48.</p>
<p>In an April article <a href="https://theconversation.com/conservative-landslide-likely-at-8-june-uk-general-election-76291">published</a> after Theresa May called the June 8 UK general election, I said a Conservative landslide was likely – a widely held view. Under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s vote instead <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017">increased almost ten points</a> from 2015, and the Conservatives failed to win a majority – though they clung to power with support from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party.</p>
<p>In the May <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017">French presidential election run-off</a>, Emmanuel Macron crushed Marine Le Pen 66-34. While Macron is a centrist and not a left-winger, he is clearly preferable to a conservative or Le Pen from a left perspective.</p>
<p>In October, Labour <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2017">won the New Zealand election</a> (which was held in September) after securing a coalition agreement with NZ First. Labour had been polling in the mid-20s before Jacinda Ardern became its leader in August.</p>
<p>While 2017 was generally a good year for the left, there were two poor results. At the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_legislative_election,_2017">October Austrian election</a>, a conservative/far-right government was formed after more than a decade of coalition governments between the major left and right-wing parties. </p>
<p>At the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_2017">German election</a> in September, the far-right achieved its highest vote share since the second world war (12.6%). The major parties had formed a grand coalition, and both slumped, with the Social Democrats falling to their lowest vote (20.5%) since 1932. Despite this terrible result, it appears likely there will be another grand coalition government led by Angela Merkel.</p>
<p>Where there has been a clear difference between the major left and right-wing parties (the UK, the US and New Zealand), the left-wing party has performed strongly. The dismal results for the left in Germany and Austria have occurred in left/right coalitions, where there was perceived to be little difference between the left and right.</p>
<p>Furthermore, embracing a left-wing agenda neutralises some of the far-right’s appeal. The UK Independence Party won just 1.8% of the vote at the 2017 election, down almost 11 points from 2015, though some of this fall was caused by the Conservatives’ support for Brexit. Macron vigorously attacked Le Pen’s policies, and thrashed her by a bigger than expected margin.</p>
<p>The far-right tends to perform best when voters perceive little difference between the major left- and right-wing parties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89922/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In both Australian and overseas elections held in 2017, the left generally performed better than expected.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/893282017-12-28T10:53:11Z2017-12-28T10:53:11Z2018: what to expect for Europe in the year of the Brown Earth Dog<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199694/original/file-20171218-27554-kh1tcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=663%2C8%2C4339%2C2331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the Western world, 2017 has been a year of (largely) self-inflicted chaos. Europe’s 60-year project of self-realisation faces unprecedented challenges to its ideological and territorial rationale. In the US, a populist president is pitted against institutional structures defined by checks and balances. Meanwhile, China has consolidated its position as a global economic power and an emerging military power, led by its <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-41743804">undisputed</a> leader, President Xi Jinping. In 2018, what will the rise of China bring for Europe? Surprisingly, insights from Chinese astrology tally well with political analysis. Both envisage shifts in the EU’s international focus and a stronger recognition of the flaws of its own neoliberal system.</p>
<p>According to the Chinese calendar, 2018 is the year of the Brown Earth Dog. The dog is an <a href="https://www.chinesehoroscope2018.com/">ethical and idealistic</a> sign that symbolises justice, openness, tolerance and innovation. From this perspective, 2018 indicates a rest from the fireworks of 2017. An Earth Dog year gives international <a href="https://a-panache.com/portfolio/year-of-the-brown-earth-dog-2018/">communication</a> a chance – for those who choose to engage. In all, 2018 could be a decisive year for EU foreign policy and social justice.</p>
<h2>Looking East</h2>
<p>Global environmental security presents a promising platform for constructive EU-Chinese relations. In Chinese cosmology, the <a href="https://www.karmaweather.com/the-5-chinese-astrology-zodiac-elements">Earth element</a> fosters environmental awareness, along with questions of rational foresight. China, the most pragmatic of nations, is developing a serious interest in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-41743804">renewables</a>.</p>
<p>Although stubborn in pursuit of its long-term goals, China may be willing to engage proactively with the EU over its aims to secure <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/environment/international_issues/pdf/UNEP%2520Env%2520Sustainability%2520and%2520SDGs.pdf">environmental sustainability</a>. The US threatens to cut itself off from any Western-Chinese cooperation on these issues through its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-climate-usa-paris/u-s-submits-formal-notice-of-withdrawal-from-paris-climate-pact-idUSKBN1AK2FM">withdrawal in 2017</a> from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-2015-climate-summit-14031">Paris climate agreement</a>.</p>
<h2>Trump: Europe steps back</h2>
<p>Born under the sign of the <a href="https://exemplore.com/astrology/Predictions-for-Chinese-Year-of-the-Dog">Fire Dog</a>, Trump is an aggressive leader who finds it hard to control his emotions, particularly if his position is threatened. This increases the potential for global conflict and simultaneously for a distancing of Europe from America over values and foreign and military policy. Trump’s retweeting, without further comment, of hate materials produced by the ultra-nationalist group <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-britain-first-the-far-right-group-retweeted-by-donald-trump-88407">Britain First</a>, was met with widespread condemnation in Europe. His <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-trumps-recognition-of-jerusalem-as-the-capital-of-israel-means-for-the-middle-east-88722">intervention</a> in the delicate balance of Israeli-Palestinian conflict and <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-threat-of-fire-and-fury-is-a-gift-to-north-koreas-propaganda-machine-82275">provocation</a> of the unpredictable Kim Jong Un has horrified European foreign policy makers.</p>
<h2>Macron’s moment</h2>
<p>For much of 2017, Germany was the fulcrum of the power politics between the EU and its member states. However, since the inconclusive German election of September 2017, Angela Merkel has had to devote time and attention to establishing a viable government at home. Even if current attempts to launch a renewed <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-germanys-social-democrats-should-enter-government-with-angela-merkel-again-88606">grand coalition</a> are successful, detailed negotiations over policy and posts can be expected to preoccupy party leaders well into the new year. A distracted Germany offers the French president, Emmanuel Macron, an opportunity to <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-macron-has-more-room-to-manoeuvre-than-may-and-merkel-86382">rebalance the Franco-German relationship</a>, with a more prominent role for France. This would allow him to harness the EU’s resources in furthering his policy aims at home and in the wider world.</p>
<p>One of Macron’s foreign policy aims is to redefine his country’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-39843396">African policy</a>. Macron sees a compliant Africa both as crucial to the fight against Islamist militancy and as an arena for French investment and business opportunities. He wants to break with the “Francafrique” collusion between French leaders and some less than democratic African leaders to instil a new transparency in Franco-African relations. Success in such an endeavour is more likely from an EU platform than a national one. At EU level, therefore, we are likely to see a new direction in the politics of the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/neighbourhood/southern-neighbourhood_en">European periphery</a>.</p>
<p>It was Germany’s resurgence that led the eastern expansion of the EU in the 1990s at the expense of the southern flank, France’s traditional sphere of influence. Germany’s current economic power within the EU and Russia’s intractability on its eastern flank mean that the EU’s eastern neighbourhood is set to remain a foreign policy focus. However, France’s position post-Brexit as the EU’s sole convincing military power and the rebalancing of the Franco-German relationship implies a new and significant focus on the southern neighbourhood.</p>
<h2>Social issues reach boiling point</h2>
<p>While the year of the Brown Earth Dog sets the scene for more rational political exchange, this by no means implies an end to <a href="https://exemplore.com/astrology/Predictions-for-Chinese-Year-of-the-Dog">political turmoil</a> in the EU. The dog years’ propensity for justice and innovation suggest that slow-burning social issues might come to a head. Decades of neoliberal economic developments have led to increasingly polarised societies while fast-moving technological innovation and the forces of globalisation are leading to the development of a new “<a href="https://www.hse.ru/data/2013/01/28/1304836059/Standing.%2520The_Precariat__The_New_Dangerous_Class__-Bloomsbury_USA(2011).pdf">precariat</a>” – a marginalised class – in European countries. Just as the EU will be faced with decisions of principle over its foreign policies and international alliances, it will need to address hard questions about its democratic values and the place social justice should occupy in a democratic society.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://tribes.chathamhouse.org/the-tribes">research</a> suggests that if the EU project is to flourish in 2018 and beyond, it will need to demonstrate its worth to EU citizens, or risk a more significant drift to populism. The research identifies six groups, or opinion “tribes”, across the EU. Over a third of EU citizens – the largest of the tribes – can be termed “<a href="https://tribes.chathamhouse.org/the-tribes">hesitant Europeans</a>”. This tribe’s sheer size and its concentration in the more powerful north-western member states means that its members’ views matter for EU decision-makers. Of all the tribes, the hesitant Europeans are the most likely to be politically apathetic. Typically of working age, on modest incomes and ill disposed towards immigrants, they are currently indifferent towards Europe and need to be actively persuaded of the EU’s benefits.</p>
<p>One last point – the Chinese year of the Brown Earth Dog doesn’t actually start until <a href="https://www.chinesehoroscope2018.com/">February 16 2018</a>. These are the dying days of the year of the garrulous and selfish Fire Chicken.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Hogwood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Chinese zodiac predicts justice, openness, tolerance and innovation for the year ahead. After a difficult political year, it could be just the tonic.Patricia Hogwood, Reader in European Politics, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/895032017-12-27T17:06:49Z2017-12-27T17:06:49ZTheresa May brought a rotten year on herself – did she have to take the rest of the UK with her?<p>In politics, it is a truism events can shift, and shift quickly. What a difference a day makes, let alone a week, a month, a year. In 2017, the year following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, there seems to have been so many shifts: so many <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-seismic-shift-has-occurred-in-british-politics-79209">fundamentals</a> have been up for discussion, so much has been at stake.</p>
<p>And yet, it also seems so little has changed. The UK’s entire political, social and economic system remains frozen in the seizure-like grip of the national paroxysm that is Brexit.</p>
<p>Looking back, it’s easy to discern the one, central reason for the freeze: this year, for better or worse, has been Theresa May’s year. Every decision the prime minister and her team have made has further entrenched the divisions wrought by the referendum result, and failed to move the nation beyond them. Let’s remind ourselves of this journey.</p>
<p>In her <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-read-theresa-mays-brexit-speech-71359">Lancaster House speech</a> in January, May reminded us that Britain had “voted to leave the European Union, and chose to embrace the world”. With these, her opening words, the tone for 2017 was set. It was either/or: embrace the EU, or embrace the world. You can’t have both.</p>
<p>And it was all or nothing too: you couldn’t have some of the EU – no single market, no customs union – it was in or out, completely, definitively.</p>
<p>In March, this same binary either/or lay behind her stage managed signing of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-linguists-guide-to-the-theresa-may-article-50-letter-75436">Article 50 letter</a>: against a backdrop in Downing Street of a solitary union flag, the EU flag conspicuous by its absence. Of course, we now know that the cabinet had not had a single discussion about what Brexit would look like. Pure symbolism, then, underpinned the first three months of May’s year – a simplistic reduction of a frightfully complex reality to a black and white in or out of the EU. </p>
<p>Indeed, so simple a reduction was it that May even beguiled herself with her binary view of the world: by April, the prime minister was explaining to the nation that the country needed to go to the polls again <a href="https://theconversation.com/theresa-mays-snap-election-gamble-explained-76423">in a snap election</a> to give her the mandate she needed to deliver this clean break Brexit. </p>
<p>People and politicians who urged caution on Brexit were “<a href="https://theconversation.com/just-who-exactly-is-playing-games-theresa-may-and-political-opportunism-76418">playing games with Politics</a>”, she told us; in the coming election, “every vote for the Conservatives, will make it harder for opposition politicians who want to stop me from getting the job done”.</p>
<p>Of course, as the true complexities of leaving the EU were already seeping out in the public realm by this stage, it was not difficult for the electorate to see through this reductionism, and May lost her already small majority. </p>
<p>But this did not stop the prime minister’s quest to render the difficulties of Brexit as child’s play: after the summer recess, May delivered her <a href="https://theconversation.com/theresa-may-in-florence-little-room-and-no-view-84534">Florence speech</a>, in which she talked about the “exciting times” ahead and how Brexit represented a “sovereign nation in which the British people are in control”. The referendum vote was “a statement about how they want their democracy to work”.</p>
<p>Form our current vantage point, it is crystal clear that this does nothing to genuinely understand the reasons for the Leave vote, nor to appreciate the incredible complexity of leaving the EU.</p>
<p>These were platitudes – the simplistic reduction of the complexities of international cooperation to nothing more than poppycock. And, where May led, others in her cabinet and party followed. In July, The foreign secretary suggested in parliament the EU should “go whistle” for the money it wanted for the Brexit divorce settlement. By September, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, was describing the mooted €50 billion divorce payment as “nonsense”. In November, influential Brexiteer <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/25/jacob-rees-mogg-mark-carney-enemy-brexit-bbc-biased/">Jacob Rees-Mogg</a> described Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England as an “enemy of Brexit”.</p>
<p>As much as these people may be characters and have their own, elevated profiles, responsibility for inspiring them to ride roughshod over such sensitive matters should be laid squarely at the feet of a leader who was doing exactly the same.</p>
<h2>Britain deserves better</h2>
<p>As the whole of 2017 shows, the resort to these simple, oppositional binaries, just begets more of the same: oppositional thinking begets more oppositional thinking, more uncritical dismissal of opposing views. The year ended with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/18/death-threats-brexit-media-rational-debate-crisis-confrontation">death threats</a> against MPs who rebelled against May in a recent parliamentary vote on Brexit – we would do well to remember this. </p>
<p>And it could have been so different. It was in fact always impossible for May – or any politician – to step into post-referendum 2017 and attempt to speak clearly on the “will of the British People”. Anyone who claims to be able to do this is wrong, even if 17.4m people voted Leave. Wrong, because there were 16m other people voting for the opposite; doubly wrong because the people who cast the 1m votes that made the difference in the referendum may have reason to change their mind now or at any time in the future.</p>
<p>An emollient tone was needed from May – a message to the country and our European partners that she understood the complexities that produced the referendum vote and the many different reasons for why people voted like they did.</p>
<p>This is the message to take into 2018: whatever side one might be on the Brexit divide, let’s all admit the complexities, and demand that politicians do the same.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Price does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For a full 12 months, this prime minister has encouraged and entrenched harmful divisions, particularly over Brexit.Andy Price, Head of Politics, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/894452017-12-22T04:20:06Z2017-12-22T04:20:06ZSpeaking with: social researcher and author Hugh Mackay on 2017, ‘a really disturbing year’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200125/original/file-20171220-4951-lo530s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social researcher Hugh Mackay and The Conversation's FactCheck Editor Lucinda Beaman.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>“I’ve found 2017 a really disturbing year.”</p>
<p>That’s the summary from writer, thinker and social researcher Hugh Mackay. </p>
<p>Mackay spoke in December with The Conversation’s FactCheck Editor Lucinda Beaman at the Sydney launch of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-2017-yearbook-articles-from-australias-top-thinkers-86204">The Conversation 2017 Year Book: 50 standout articles from Australia’s top thinkers</a>. Among the essays featured in the book is Mackay’s enormously popular and thought-provoking article titled <a href="https://theconversation.com/hugh-mackay-the-state-of-the-nation-starts-in-your-street-72264">The state of the nation starts in your street</a>. </p>
<p>The discussion, which you can hear in full on The Conversation’s Speaking With podcast above, touched on issues ranging from the rise of Donald Trump and what it means for Australian politics, to social dislocation and distrust in our institutions – and in each other.</p>
<p>Mackay said: “We’re now seeing many long term trends coming to fruition”.</p>
<p>“What is happening to Australian society is that we are edging in that same direction [as America]: more inequality, a growing number of people who feel as though the political narrative – such as it is – has got nothing to do with them,” he said.</p>
<p>“Fragmentation is the theme of 2017,” he said, citing concerns about loneliness and disconnected communities. </p>
<p>As for what we can do differently in 2018? Part of the solution, Mackay said, is getting off the screens and connecting with people in our local neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>“We don’t have to be prime minister, we don’t have to be in government, we don’t have to be the lord mayor of Sydney to produce changes that could transform our way of life and mental health,” he said.</p>
<p>“We’re like most species on the planet in our deep need of each other, our deep need to feel connected, to feel as though we belong to herds and tribes, neighbourhoods groups and communities.”</p>
<p>“So the first thing I would say is let’s recognise that this strange collection of people that I live with in my apartment block or in my street <em>are</em> my neighbours and the neighbourhood.”</p>
<p>“We’re all friendly with our friends and we all know how to be nice to people we like. The great thing about neighbourhoods is they’re full of people we may like or dislike, very different from us,” he said. “It’s very good for our moral development to have to learn how to rub along with people you didn’t choose.”</p>
<p>When you move into a neighbourhood, he said, “you have imposed upon yourself a moral obligation to engage with whatever that community turns out to be. Because in a crisis, you’re going to need each other.”</p>
<p>“If you know that someone in your street or in your apartment block is living alone and you don’t see much of them, make sure you’ve made contact. Just knock on the door and say ‘G'day, I’m Hugh, I’m not going to bother you but I’m here’,” he said.</p>
<p>“It’s a good time of year to be saying ‘what can we do?’. Because it’s the season when it doesn’t seem deeply weird to organise a street party, or to invite the neighbours in.”</p>
<hr>
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<p><strong>Music</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Blue_Dot_Sessions/The_Contessa/Wisteria">Free Music Archive: Blue Dot Sessions - Wisteria</a></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89445/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Author and social researcher Hugh Mackay says fragmentation was among the key themes of 2017 – but he has some concrete suggestions on how we can do better in 2018.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLucinda Beaman, FactCheck EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/810672017-08-16T23:20:00Z2017-08-16T23:20:00ZHow to safely watch an eclipse: Advice from an astronomer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181473/original/file-20170808-26021-1c1hxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C0%2C1455%2C920&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A total solar eclipse will be visible across parts of the United States Aug. 21, treating amateur and professional astronomers alike to sights similar to this NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ultraviolet image of the moon eclipsing the sun on Jan. 31, 2014.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sdomission/12240009064/in/photolist-jDBfg3-c2E1bq-dtBfWJ-dtvHND-c31tsQ-fK6r7i-p3CWN2-p3zyq3-pGZ1wS-pXgLpy-pH2M45-pZnpn8-pXgTbQ-pH3Cd7-s5MMYH-pZvjy1-pZviTU-pGWFJr-pXgK4s-pXgSzj-p3D4wH-pZcvmt-pZnzyk-pZnxjk-p3Cqpg-c2xmSf-6GZ5Pf-6GUVQ4-oU2ZbY-6GZ9uo-6GZBA2-6GUnbM-6H58jj-6H5raG-6GYFFy-6H1mrn-6GZgJ3-6H5hUC-6GZJmZ-6H4SYb-6GZCHF-6H1jW2-6GZjY3-6H5mYb-6H4Vwh-6H4Uhq-qNsbs1-89mqGm-6GZMbV-6H59P1/">(NASA)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Everyone knows that you should not look at the sun!</p>
<p>Not with your naked eye, not with sunglasses and certainly not with binoculars or with a telescope. Our sun might be just an ordinary star, but it’s extremely close to us — about 269,000 times closer than the <a href="https://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/features/cosmic/nearest_star_info.html">next nearest star</a>. This makes the sun very, very bright.</p>
<p>Everyone knows that you should not look at the sun. But what about during an eclipse? This situation will confront us <a href="http://eclipse.aas.org">on Aug. 21</a>, when the entirety of North America, along with parts of South America, Africa, Europe and eastern Russia, will experience a solar eclipse.</p>
<p>For the vast majority of viewers, including anyone in any part of Canada, the eclipse will be a <a href="https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/partial-solar-eclipse.html">partial one</a>. This means that the moon will block out part of the face of the sun but leave the rest of it unchanged.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181475/original/file-20170808-26048-o6es2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory saw a partial solar eclipse in space when it caught the moon passing in front of the sun on May 25, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasamarshall/35568871254/in/photolist-Wc6LdW-WNjGWq-pMH5pg-6H2N8P-bUewyv-97Gehi-cbVVVm-Wgbiyu-RRJNpz-c2ZUhU-yA7gAy-9ZGcuR-S297WM-97pycE-vhGtc-97py8J-c1aCmd-hDBUv-6HqTa5-6N8pS5-97ncbx-pMPDra-c2Hp5A-r2yLWw-8GrzH8-c2ABNC-dKAnj3-8GryAM-6H2YYW-c2BzP7-eTkScd-c2AnGw-dtdZj6-8GrykF-emmsJ-c2AmK9-8GuNfy-c2Cqxw-c2AmBN-8GuNJY-8GuKWf-8GuMfC-c2Az8C-c2LXFA-97mQhT-qHr81h-c2Arkw-c2Azjj-8NxqFU-c2AqXo">(NASA)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If you’re under <a href="https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEanimate/SEanimate2001/SE2017Aug21T.GIF">the path of the partial eclipse</a> — even somewhere where the sun is 99 per cent concealed — you still should not look at the sun with the unaided eye. Even one-hundredth of the sun’s normal brightness is enough to permanently damage your eyesight.</p>
<p>Instead, you can safely watch the action through special <a href="https://www.space.com/36941-solar-eclipse-eye-protection-guide.html">eclipse glasses</a> (make sure they’re <a href="https://eclipse.aas.org/eye-safety/iso-certification">ISO certified and from a reliable supplier</a>), through a simple <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/learn/project/how-to-make-a-pinhole-camera/">home-made pinhole camera</a> or even by looking at the shadows cast by <a href="https://petapixel.com/2012/05/21/crescent-shaped-projections-through-tree-leaves-during-the-solar-eclipse/">tree leaves</a> or by a <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/20/solar-eclipse-colander-_n_6908140.html">kitchen colander</a>.</p>
<p>For some lucky viewers in parts of <a href="http://eclipse2017.org/blog/2017/01/15/states-the-total-eclipse-touches/">14 U.S. states</a>, a total solar eclipse awaits on Aug. 21. This will be far more exciting than a mere partial eclipse. For maybe as long as two minutes, depending on your exact location, the sun will disappear completely behind the moon. The temperature will drop, the stars will come out, and the birds will think evening has come.</p>
<p>If you are under the path of the total eclipse, you’ll likely have more than an hour of partial eclipse both before and after the exciting moment of totality. During the partial phases, the usual rules apply: Wear your eclipse glasses or use your colander, but don’t look at the sun unaided!</p>
<p>However, when the time finally arrives and when the sky goes dark, it will finally be safe to look. Take off your glasses, stare at the sun with your unaided eyes, and soak up a remarkable cosmic moment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181476/original/file-20170808-26004-1qtloh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181476/original/file-20170808-26004-1qtloh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181476/original/file-20170808-26004-1qtloh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181476/original/file-20170808-26004-1qtloh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181476/original/file-20170808-26004-1qtloh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181476/original/file-20170808-26004-1qtloh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181476/original/file-20170808-26004-1qtloh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hinode satellite observed the sun’s corona during a total solar eclipse on July 22, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasamarshall/3749824749/in/photolist-6HmQfR-amTUw8-ffnGgr-c2KEsh-87puxz-uoX4dq-6GZssa-W33piE-6GXKhS-6GZKUc-USp1ay-6H4x5u-na8q4i-aTdLfT-6GUbft-c2Ah4G-6GZwRv-6GYR9h-c2AiB3-6GTKSM-voESN-6GZuCB-97whBh-6H4CHW-pKwfEf-6GVhxv-c2AhrE-c2AiY7-pMEk4M-hFGgPZ-6GZZFa-pMJAnw-pMqArp-bo72po-pMEjHr-qfriq-hFDv8-9ogkg7-c2Ynk5-6H52Go-pvdsTL-c2Ak3j-LLRtM-6GYNzS-c2AjRE-59vsFe-4ZKxAs-6GYTMo-hFGggK-6SFStG">(NASA/JAXA)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the total eclipse, it is completely safe to look at the sun without any equipment at all. And what a sight it will be.</p>
<p>Revealed, just for a moment, will be <a href="https://www.exploratorium.edu/eclipse/what-to-see-during-eclipse#totality">the sun’s glorious corona</a>, the faint <a href="https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/solar-corona">tendrils of ultra-hot gas</a> that stream off the sun’s blazing surface. This is not to be missed. If you leave your eclipse glasses on, you won’t see anything.</p>
<p>After a minute or two, the total eclipse will be over, the skies will lighten and special safety precautions must once again be taken. But those who experience totality will be left with memories of an otherwise hidden view of the Universe, a brief glimpse of our life-giving sun unlike any other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bryan Gaensler receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and from the Canada Research Chairs Program. He is the Director of the Dunlap Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, which will be distributing its eclipse glasses free of charge at the Canadian National Exhibition and other events.</span></em></p>If you’ve ever wondered why you can look at a solar eclipse and why it can harm your eyes, the answer is in the sun’s rays.Bryan Gaensler, Director, Dunlap Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/724312017-02-06T14:54:18Z2017-02-06T14:54:18ZSouth Africa’s 2017 budget: tough economic times require tough decisions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155613/original/image-20170206-23500-1nvnvef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has a tough job of rekindling a weak economy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South Africa’s 2017/18 budget will have to be bold to pull the country out of the prevailing economic crisis. Economic growth has stalled and the threat of a credit rating downgrade still looms large. The Conversation Africa’s business and economy editor Sibonelo Radebe asked Jannie Rossouw to tease out critical issues that must be addressed in the upcoming budget.</em></p>
<p><strong>What should South Africans expect from the 2017 budget speech?</strong></p>
<p>The Minister of Finance made it clear in last year’s <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/mtbps/2016/default.aspx">medium term budget</a> that tax increases will be needed to ensure that government revenue rises by R28 billion for the 2017/18 tax year. As South Africa is currently suffering very low economic growth, this additional income can only be raised by higher taxes and through bracket creep as a result of inflation. Bracket creep happens when taxpayers’ income increases as a result of inflation, but concomitant tax relief isn’t granted. This pushes them into higher tax brackets. </p>
<p>South Africans should expect a few things on the tax front. They are unlikely to get tax relief to offset bracket creep, and they are likely to face increases on consumption products such as alcohol, tobacco, soft drinks and fuel. It’s also highly likely that the government will announce some form of sugar tax in this budget. </p>
<p>But all of this won’t be enough to fund the government’s income requirements. This leaves it with one of three options: an increase in Value Added Tax (VAT); an increase in company tax; or an increase in personal income tax. </p>
<p>Increases in company and personal tax seem more likely.</p>
<p><strong>So there will be significant movement on the tax front?</strong></p>
<p>There is <a href="http://www.fin24.com/Opinion/sas-tax-dilemma-hiking-vat-vs-wealth-taxes-20170127">widespread speculation</a> that VAT might go up. But this will place a heavy extra burden on poor people and households. My first choice is for a smaller civil service which will lead to savings in expenditure, eliminating the need for tax increase. </p>
<p>If tax increases are indeed unavoidable, my preference is for higher personal income tax and for higher company tax rather than an increase in VAT. </p>
<p>But I can only support higher personal income tax and higher company tax on condition that corruption is reigned in, wasteful expenditure is pushed back and all possible areas for savings are considered. This would be helped if, for example, President Jacob Zuma’s <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/government/156785-jacob-zumas-new-r4-billion-presidential-jet-back-on-after-old-plane-breaks-down">proposed presidential jet</a> was canned and politicians were forced to drive cheaper cars.</p>
<p><strong>What impact will the prevailing political environment have on the budget speech?</strong></p>
<p>Infighting in the African National Congress (ANC) has raised questions about whether the Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan’s <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017/01/21/%E2%80%98Cabinet-reshuffle-imminent%E2%80%99-%E2%80%93-plan-to-get-Gordhan-out-and-replace-him-with-Nkosazana-Zuma%E2%80%9A-COPE-charges">position is in jeopardy</a>. There have been persistent <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/stnews/2017/01/29/From-Saxonwold-shebeen-to-parliament-Molefe-set-for-comeback1">rumours</a> that he may be removed from the portfolio. But he is viewed as a “safe pair of hands” by the international investment community whose capital is necessary for investment in South Africa to stimulate economic growth. He is also viewed as a “safe pair of hands” by the credit rating agencies. </p>
<p>If the minister is removed, South Africa’s credit rating will be downgraded to junk status. This will result in higher interest rates to reflect increased risk which in turn will raise the government’s funding needs and put additional pressure on the fiscus.</p>
<p><strong>The state owned enterprises landscape has become volatile. What should the minister do in this space?</strong></p>
<p>It’s time the government reconsidered its ownership of state-owned enterprises. Many of these place heavy financial burdens on the fiscus and there’s little prospect of turning them to <a href="http://www.gov.za/speeches/government-continues-address-challenges-facing-state-owned-enterprises-26-nov-2015-0000">sustained profitability</a>. South African Airways comes to mind. In my view the government should simply give it away, as it has no net value and <a href="http://www.gov.za/speeches/government-continues-address-challenges-facing-state-owned-enterprises-26-nov-2015-0000">will not fly profitably</a> for many years to come. By giving it away the new owner can rid the company of its <a href="http://www.sabc.co.za/news/a/9a86e9804a9c13379dd7bda65ed2c195/There-are-problems-between-SAA-and-pilots:-Myeni">incompetent management</a> and install managers who can return it to profitability.</p>
<p><strong>Economic growth has almost stagnated. What should the minister do to address that situation?</strong></p>
<p>He should announce initiatives to deregulate the economy in the interests of easier business activity because South Africa suffers “<a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S0041-47512016000200003">bureaucratic oversupply</a>”. He should also rein in <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S0041-47512016000200003">the size of the civil service</a>. It employs too many people, placing a heavy burden on the economy.</p>
<p>These two initiatives will be a good start. But there are many more things that should happen although they are not all under the control of the Minister of Finance. These could include cutting the size of the cabinet and revising new visa regulations – particularly the <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/unabridged-birth-certificate-travel-rule-scrapped-20160205">burdensome</a> birth certificates requirement – to boost tourism.</p>
<p><strong>What can we expect from the higher education funding arena?</strong></p>
<p>In a year that the government is really <a href="http://www.fin24.com/Economy/who-will-feel-tax-pain-in-gordhans-budget-2017-20170129">pressurised for revenue</a>, it will be difficult to make provision for substantial increases in expenditure on education. The entire value proposition of education expenditure across the board should be revisited <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS">given how much</a> – relative to the GDP – the country spends on primary and secondary education.</p>
<p>It might be possible to show savings in expenditure on primary and secondary education without jeopardising standards or delivery. To the contrary, a proper review might result in better quality and delivery with less funding needs. This would release funds for tertiary education.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72431/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jannie Rossouw is a C-rated researcher and receives funding from the National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>With stalled economic growth and threats of credit rating downgrade, South Africa’s 2017/18 budget will need to dig deep to foster recovery.Jannie Rossouw, Head of School of Economic & Business Sciences, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/716122017-01-22T19:09:56Z2017-01-22T19:09:56Z2017: The year ahead in cinema<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153519/original/image-20170119-26548-ooaxvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Baywatch is returning to the big screen in 2017. What a time to be alive. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cold Spring Pictures</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There have been some good films already released in 2017. Robert Zemeckis’ <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3640424/">Allied</a>, for example, is a compelling WWII espionage drama made in Zemeckis’ seamless style starring the equally seamless Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard. The Edge of Seventeen and La La Land are far more interesting films. Both are structured around sweetly formulaic narratives – a fish out of water teen drama in the case of <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1878870/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Edge of Seventeen</a>, and a bittersweet romantic musical in the case of <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3783958/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">La La Land</a> – but the style of both films clashes with their narratives, to create a productively dissonant effect in the viewer. </p>
<p>The Edge of Seventeen – shot in Canada – is replete with bleak suburban images, shot in a subdued palette under grey light and overcast skies, with the feelgood story often at odds with the tone of the image. The frequent use of wide angle lenses in La La Land – which distort straight lines, creating an effect of disassociation for the viewer through their disruption of conventional perspective – similarly ground against its straightforward nostalgic narrative.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153537/original/image-20170119-26543-1tchmyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone in La La Land.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So what other movies are in store for 2017? Here are some of the ones to look forward to – or not.</p>
<h2>The smaller films</h2>
<p>Let’s start with some of the smaller films. <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4975722/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Moonlight</a>, a coming of age film about the life of a young, black man in a tough Miami neighbourhood looks like a searing drama – if a little overly “actorly.” It is a topical film, too, given the explosion of racial tension in the US over the last few years. <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1753383/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">A Dog’s Purpose</a>, directed by Lasse Hallström – the excellent director behind <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0124315/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Cider House Rules</a> (1999), <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120824/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Shipping News</a> (2001), and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1028532/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Hachi: A Dog’s Tale</a> (2009) – follows the reincarnation of the spirit of a dog through various breeds, which is a sufficiently bizarre premise to draw my attention. <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3666024/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Red Turtle</a> is a similarly low-key film about an animal – it follows the story of a shipwrecked man who befriends a giant red turtle.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153531/original/image-20170119-26543-ruws1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Red Turtle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other low-key releases that look promising include <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4372390/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Detour</a>, the latest film from the British horror-thriller director Christopher Smith; <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt6338476/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Lost in London</a>, written and directed by Woody Harrelson starring Willie Nelson and Owen Wilson (and, yes, Woody Harrelson); <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5052448/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Get Out</a>, a satiric horror film about black-white relations in the US; <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1412528/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Table 19</a>, the new comedy from the hit and miss Duplass brothers, featuring a wonderful premise – a table at a wedding for the guests everyone hoped wouldn’t come; <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4954522/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Raw</a>, a French-Belgian horror film about a vegetarian college student who becomes a cannibal; <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4411596/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">My Cousin Rachel</a>, an adaptation of the Daphne du Maurier novel starring Rachel Weisz; and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1758810/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Snowman</a>, a crime thriller based on Jo Nesbø’s novel starring Michael Fassbender who, one suspects, will be as watchable as ever.</p>
<p>There are, of course, several big budget films coming out, some of which look good.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3731562/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Kong: Skull Island</a>, starring woman of the moment Brie Larson and man of the moment Tom Hiddleston – both first-rate actors – looks like the kind of spectacular film worth seeing on the big screen, as does the science fiction thriller <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1219827/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Ghost in the Shell</a>, the live action version of the cult anime that generated controversy through its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/apr/18/max-landis-denies-defence-of-scarlett-johansson-ghost-in-the-shell">casting of Scarlett Johannson in an Asian role</a>. Guy Ritchie will probably approach the Round Table story in <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1972591/">King Arthur: Legend of the Sword</a> with his usual verve, given he is a master of (at least visually) arresting cinema.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153533/original/image-20170119-26563-s307ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brie Larson and Tom Hiddleston in Kong: Skull Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The director and star of the razor-sharp thriller <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1401152/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Unknown</a> (2011) – Jaume Collet-Sera and Liam Neeson – reunite in <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1590193/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Commuter</a>, another Neeson vehicle about a “regular” guy who becomes embroiled in a world of mystery and violence. Why not retread the same steps? The formula, virtually invented by British novelist John Buchan’s Richard Hannay novels, makes for pleasurable cinema. I’m likewise excited about <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2406566/">The Coldest City</a>, a spy thriller set in Berlin, and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4158096/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Free Fire</a>, an action film from one of the best contemporary directors, Ben Wheatley (<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1788391/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Kill List</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2375574/?ref_=nv_sr_1">A Field in England</a>), starring Brie Larson again.</p>
<p>Two films based on Stephen King novels also look good – <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1648190/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Dark Tower</a> with its fantasy-Western story, seems perfect for a large-scale adaptation, and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1396484/?ref_=ttmi_tt">It</a>, about killer monster-clown Pennywise – one of King’s great novels – is finally being made for the big screen after its success as a TV miniseries in 1990.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153523/original/image-20170119-26550-17go6o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Skarsgård in It (2017).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2039338/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Flatliners</a> and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1856101/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Blade Runner 2049</a> – sequels that have been decades coming – both look like they may have been worth the wait. The follow up to Joel Schumacher’s grim film of 1990, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099582/">Flatliners</a>, is directed by Niels Arden Oplev (<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1132620/?ref_=nv_sr_3">The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo</a>) and features an appealing cast, including Nina Dobrev, Diego Luna and Ellen Page. Blade Runner 2049, starring Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford, has generated a lot of hype. We’ll see if it lives up to it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153525/original/image-20170119-26539-1fgf1vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harrison Ford will return in Blade Runner 2049.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Comedies that may be of value include <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1469304/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Baywatch</a> – weirdly enough, made by critically acclaimed documentarian Seth Gordon. It will be mandatory viewing for everyone who watched (and loved) the 1990s TV show that quickly gained a reputation as the epitome of cheesy Los Angeles trash. Another Adam McKay/Will Ferrell pairing, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4481514/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The House</a>, is based on a suitably absurd premise involving people down on their luck turning their house into a casino. <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1389072/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Downsizing</a>, starring Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig, and directed by Alexander Payne, is likewise based on a solid comedic premise – a husband and wife decide they will have a better life if they shrink themselves, but the wife pulls out after the husband has gone through with it.</p>
<h2>The blockbuster franchises</h2>
<p>2017 will see the release, as usual, of new entries in several blockbuster franchises. As expected, many of these look (and surely will be) unspeakably dull: is anyone really excited about another <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1790809/?ref_=fn_al_tt_3">Pirates of the Carribean</a> or <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3371366/?ref_=fn_al_tt_4">Transformers</a> film? Will <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2592614/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Resident Evil: The Final Chapter</a> really be the final chapter in a series that has only ever been worth watching for the (interesting) disconcerting effect poor film making can have on the viewer? </p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2250912/">Spider-Man: Homecoming</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3315342/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Logan</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3450958/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">War for the Planet of the Apes</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3501632/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Thor: Ragnarok</a> and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2527336/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Star Wars: Episode VIII</a> similarly promise little. If <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1490017/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Lego Movie</a> (2014), one of the most ideologically repellent mainstream films of recent years, is anything to go by, then I’m not looking forward to the two (!) Lego films scheduled for release in 2017: <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4116284/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Lego Batman Movie</a> and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3014284/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Lego Ninjago Movie</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153528/original/image-20170119-26582-bn3e2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vin Diesel in xXx: Return of Xander Cage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I am, however, very excited about two sequels coming soon: <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1293847/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">xXx: Return of Xander Cage</a>, and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4465564/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Fifty Shades Darker</a>.</p>
<p>The original <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0295701/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">xXx</a> offered a masterclass in staging slick action sequences, perfectly combining visual effects with breathtaking stunts. It is still Vin Diesel’s finest film, with his role as the brawny, extreme sports-loving, buffoon-come-secret agent perfectly in tune with his physique and macho celebrity persona. Diesel was the action man for the Mountain Dew generation. The sequel, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0329774/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">xXx 2: The Next Level</a>, saw Ice Cube take the lead and was not nearly as effective.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2322441/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Fifty Shades of Grey</a> was an uneven film. The first half was Hollywood at its delightful best, with beautiful stars making hackneyed dialogue seem electric, bringing an enchanting quality to material that is hokey in the extreme. The heightened first encounter between the business guru Christian Grey (Jamie Dornan), for example, and the suitably absurdly-named college student Anastasia Steele (Dakota Johnson), made for ecstatic viewing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153526/original/image-20170119-26573-1hxsmp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan in Fifty Shades Darker.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Much of the film’s hypnotic effect was due to its location – Seattle – and cinematograoher Seamus McGarvey’s astonishing photography of the city. The score – an uncharacteristic one for Danny Elfman – likewise helped make the film (at least at first) an engrossing experience. Once the hypnotic gloss wore away as the story developed, the film became tedious, its supposedly “risque” material more comic than erotic.</p>
<p>The sequel, however, promises a great deal. It is directed by James Foley, the truly superb filmmaker behind two late 20th century masterpieces <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090670/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">At Close Range</a> (1986) and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0104348/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Glengarry Glen Ross</a> (1992). Foley’s detached, clinical style should fit the melodramatic aesthetic of the series perfectly, bringing a rigour and precision to the direction that was absent from the first film.</p>
<p>Other potentially exciting releases in major series include <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4630562/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Fast & Furious 8</a> – the first since the death of Paul Walker, perhaps explaining surprises in the cast like Charlize Theron and Helen Mirren (!); <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2316204/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Alien: Covenant</a>, the sequel to <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1446714/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Prometheus</a> (2012); and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3348730/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Saw: Legacy</a>, the eighth Saw film which only makes the “will see” list because it is helmed by virtuosic horror film makers, the Spierig Brothers (<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0339840/?ref_=nm_knf_t3">Undead</a> 2003).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153534/original/image-20170119-26577-keu2tl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michael Fassbender in Alien: Covenant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Those that don’t inspire confidence</h2>
<p>At the same time, there are several films I’m looking forward to missing altogether.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4572514/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Patriots Day</a>, based on the Boston bombings of 2013, though made by a competent director (Peter Berg), and starring a more than competent actor (Mark Wahlberg) looks like thoroughly repellent, pro-American nationalist rubbish – what one would expect from the pairing behind <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1091191/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Lone Survivor</a>. </p>
<p>There is a great deal of excitement surrounding <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2763304/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">T2 Trainspotting</a>, but, I’m sorry to say, I don’t share this. Danny Boyle has always been an at best ho-hum director – <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0111149/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Shallow Grave</a> (1994) was brilliant, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1010048/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Slumdog Millionaire</a> (2008) embarrassingly bad – and I found the original <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0117951/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Trainspotting</a> (1996) film, labelled “edgy” by some, alternately pretentious and silly. Boyle has done nothing in the years since Trainspotting to make me think its sequel will be different.</p>
<p>I would similarly suggest avoiding the thriller <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3462710/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Unforgettable</a> – it stars Katherine Heigl, who is the top actor in Hollywood at picking bad films. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153527/original/image-20170119-26563-q453vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demetrius Shipp Jr. in Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">imdb</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0493405/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">CHIPS</a>, another film re-exploiting TV material that wasn’t great to begin with, doesn’t look very good. The Tupac biopic <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1666185/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">All Eyez on Me</a> might have some enthused, but real life biographies seldom make good films (with some exceptions, for example, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0298744/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Auto-Focus</a>) for the simple fact that “life” is usually not conducive to cinematic formula, with the result that biopics often seem uneven and dissatisfying. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4799066/?ref_=fn_al_tt_2">Midnight Sun</a> is another entry in the teenage-lovers-one-of-whom-is-sick genre that has (perversely) become so popular in recent years, though this one, starring Patrick Schwarzenegger, may have some value as a curio. </p>
<p>The new <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2283362/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Jumanji</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3401882/">Fist Fight</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2034800/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Great Wall</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0491203/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Tulip Fever</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1781058/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Wilson</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0451279/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Wonder Woman</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2345759/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Mummy</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5013056/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Dunkirk</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5816682/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Victoria and Abdul</a> and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0974015/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Justice League</a> are similarly not inspiring much confidence in me.</p>
<h2>The eagerly anticipated, regardless …</h2>
<p>There are some films promising little that I am nonetheless eagerly anticipating.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3717490/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Power Rangers</a> will be worth seeing for the sheer weirdness. The toys weren’t very good, neither was the cartoon series, and the film of 1995 was woeful.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3874544/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Boss Baby</a> involves an acutely strange premise for an animated film, and features the voices of strong comedic actors Alex Baldwin, Steve Buscemi and Lisa Kudrow. <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4877122/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Emoji Movie</a>, likewise animated, sounds painfully relevant to contemporary media culture.</p>
<p>There’s every chance Sofia Coppola’s latest film, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5592248/">The Beguiled</a>, will be a dud – but it will probably be an interesting dud nonetheless – and the same thing holds for the new film <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5439796/?ref_=nm_flmg_dr_1">Logan Lucky</a> from the un-retired Steven Soderbergh, who has directed some great films throughout his career, in addition to plenty of shockers.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1981128/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Geostorm</a> is Jerry Bruckheimer-produced, global warming, adventure-disaster nonsense, and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3402236/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Murder on the Orient Express</a>, directed by Kenneth Branagh, will probably be the usual self-indulgent nonsense that Branagh tends to make, which is, after all, rather enjoyable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ari Mattes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From the Blade Runner reboot to Kenneth Branagh as Hercule Poirot to a film about the reincarnated spirit of a dog … here is our list of the movies to look forward to - or not.Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Media Studies, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/708462017-01-20T07:20:14Z2017-01-20T07:20:14ZTrump’s inauguration ushers in 2017, the year of the strongman<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152967/original/image-20170117-9033-1sb0pin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who's stronger?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/KryBNw">DonkeyHotey/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 exemplifies a phenomenon that is likely to shape global politics for years to come: the rise of the strongman. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-erdogan-is-turning-into-a-strongman-1482494408">term</a> is broadly used to describe law-and-order candidates with authoritarian tendencies who weaken institutions and concentrate power in the executive. As leaders, they tend to reject pluralism (the idea that political power is distributed among many institutions, both governmental and nongovernmental). Instead, they often claim to be the exclusive representatives of “the people”.</p>
<p>Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro are classic strongmen. Calling their opponents “<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/08/erdogan-presidency-risky-gamble-20148284822695561.html">unpatriotic</a>” and implying they are guided by “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/venezuela-breaking-point-food-shortages-protests-maduro">foreign interests</a>”, these politicians consistently articulate a moral form of anti-pluralism. </p>
<p>Strongmen thrive on polarisation: once in office, all three of these world leaders have described their opposition as <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/venezuela-opposition-votes-put-maduro-trial-161025181844551.html">illegitimate</a>, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-opposition-enough-signatures-recall-vote-maduro-223505009.html">immoral</a> and “<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2015.1076214?src=recsys&journalCode=fdem20">enemies of the people</a>”; Maduro even called those who voted against him <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/06/01/Maduro-Venezuelas-opposition-committed-treason-for-urging-OAS-action/2141464793684/">traitors</a>. </p>
<p>Does this remind you of any recently triumphant American politician? Hint: in November 2016 Donald Trump referred to “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/27/us/politics/trump-adviser-steps-up-searing-attack-on-romney.html?_r=0">millions of illegal voters</a>” to explain why he lost the popular vote. </p>
<p>Of course, some strongmen are more authoritarian than others, and a firm institutional framework can help limit leaders’ room for manoeuvre. Is Trump in the populist big leagues, with the likes of Putin or Erdoğan? We’ll find out soon.</p>
<h2>A year of democratic challenges</h2>
<p>This year will see strongmen in power in Washington, Budapest, Moscow, Ankara, Manila and Caracas. What does this situation, unprecedented in recent history, mean for global politics? </p>
<p>Above all, it symbolises a profound <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/is-this-the-end-of-us-soft-power-in-asia/">crisis of democracy</a>, with a real risk of contagion. In their most extreme form, as in Venezuela or Russia, such leaders <a href="https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/will-russia-ever-have-free-elections-45264">no longer organise free elections</a>: they’re unnecessary because those presidents already know what “the people” really want.</p>
<p>But strongmen can also be electorally competitive when voters feel that traditional political institutions aren’t meeting expectations, as we’ve seen in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-philippines-incomplete-people-power-revolution-paved-the-way-for-rodrigo-duterte-65972">the Philippines</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-is-on-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-experts-respond-61576">Brexit</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-wins-us-election-scholars-from-around-the-world-react-68282">Trump</a> populist successes did not take place in small countries with limited visibility. Rather, they occurred in the world’s two most mature democracies, which — despite many missteps — have historically played an important role in the flourishing of democracy across the world. </p>
<p>So one consequence of a populist winning the White House will be a decline in American soft power. In fact, Trump’s election has already <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-presidential-election-soft-power-by-shashi-tharoor-2016-11">had a negative affect in this area</a>. The US is less able to attract and co-opt support, rather than to coerce by force. This makes the case for democracy elsewhere in the world much harder. </p>
<p>This will be particularly true if Trump moves forward with some of his campaign promises to discriminate against people of Muslim faith. The stronger <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/new-report-highlights-sharp-rise-in-anti-muslim-attacks-and-environment-of-hate-in-britain-a6739596.html">anti-Islam currents</a> grow in Western democracies, the less the US, among others, can criticise governments in China, Myanmar and elsewhere for how they treat their religious minorities.</p>
<p>Under Trump, the US can also be expected to spend less money on international human rights and democracy groups. One may rightly criticise US foreign policy on many fronts, but we must recognise the massive US government investment in NGOs, journalism and opposition groups living under dictatorships around the world – to the tune of <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/01/13/democracy-aid-at-25-time-to-choose-pub-57701">US$10 billion per year</a> over the past decade.</p>
<p>Trump, by contrast, has made clear that he thinks little of defending or promoting democracy abroad, and has <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/01/05/prospects-for-u.s.-democracy-promotion-under-trump-pub-66588?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWXpobE5tRXlPREJtWmpSaCIsInQiOiJ3OUxjZHlDQ2N5b21CM2RKQ3BLR2hnUTA5V3RcL0tSVkFCc2lObUtjRE5uTFZFdk9yZnJHZkdvWU1od0FUQWpYZnZWb2NwY04ySm1vNlZjXC9ORFNSWkJRT0V0bW1iTGRvZG4xSWZtS09lWkxLYWFFaytRVkUyZ1ByQU13T0w5WmMyIn0%3D">spoken highly</a> of strongmen such as Putin, Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte. Both stances will reduce pressure on authoritarian governments around the world.</p>
<h2>Endangered: truth, plurality and stability</h2>
<p>The global resurgence of strongmen has coincided with the rise of the “<a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21706498-dishonesty-politics-nothing-new-manner-which-some-politicians-now-lie-and">post-truth</a>” era. </p>
<p>This trend threatens to undermine democracies’ key advantage over authoritarian regimes: democracies make ample use of available data to determine public policy and enjoy the benefit of a relatively transparent debate to elect competent, prepared leaders. They are noisy but ultimately moderate and stability-producing. </p>
<p>The proliferation of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trump-dossier-and-verification-in-the-era-of-fake-news-71175">fake news</a> also creates an unprecedented challenge. News organisations, struggling to adapt to the digital era, lack funds for investigative journalism (particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/without-local-papers-regional-voices-would-struggle-to-be-heard-26620">on the local level</a>). Meanwhile, social media is contributing to <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/resource/fragmentation-social-media-reuters-institute-digital-news-report-2014">social fragmentation</a>; today, few news sources speak to large portions of society.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152970/original/image-20170117-9029-1c9386k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bad for democracy, good for strongmen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photo-1903774/">Pixabay</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The result is an environment marked by a high degree of distrust – easy fodder for post-truth strongmen like Trump and Putin to exploit. </p>
<p>Democracies also tend to embrace diversity and globalisation, with their capacity to integrate migrants from all over the world. In most western democracies, the percentage of the population born abroad has consistently been around <a href="https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-population.htm">10% in recent years</a>; in Canada or Australia it <a href="https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-population.htm">reaches 20%</a>.</p>
<p>The strongman’s governing model, on the other hand, requires a degree of polarisation and fear. Both Trump and Putin consistently point to dangers from abroad, be it “<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/just-who-are-the-millions-of-bad-hombres-slated-for-us-deportation-68818">bad hombres</a></em>” from Mexico (Trump), or foreign-funded <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/11/russia-four-years-of-putins-foreign-agents-law-to-shackle-and-silence-ngos/">NGOs</a> (Putin). Most observers now expect a US retreat from <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-trump-means-for-us-trade-and-globalisation-68692">trade agreements</a> and even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/world/europe/donald-trump-nato.html?_r=0">security alliances</a>, further reducing the United States’ role in global affairs.</p>
<p>Democracies are now seen as creating more economic unpredictability than authoritarian regimes. That would have been impossible to foresee a few years back. And considering that pollsters <a href="https://theconversation.com/eu-referendum-how-the-polls-got-it-wrong-again-61639">failed to predict</a> both Brexit and Trump, markets will be more volatile ahead of elections. That’s bad for the market: investors need, above all, predictability. So we can expect negative economic consequences during 2017, year of the strongman.</p>
<p>The longer such a scenario prevails in democracies around the world, the more endangered democratic governance becomes – morally, strategically and economically. </p>
<h2>Trump and Putin: a match made in heaven?</h2>
<p>Trump doesn’t know Putin, as he famously declared in an October 2016 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-2nd-2016-presidential-debate/i-dont-know-putin-trump-says/?utm_term=.e17a4248e228">debate</a>. But even if they become friends, it’s no guarantee that US-Russia relations will be stable. </p>
<p>The notion that personal friendships between strongmen produce stability is spurious: it depends on interpersonal chemistry over institutional agreements – and the latter are far more durable. </p>
<p>Turkey’s Erdoğan was so close to Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad that <a href="http://origin-www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-24/putin-has-misjudged-turkey-s-erdogan">their families vacationed together</a>. This did not prevent the two from falling out and producing one of the Middle East’s most profound enmities. </p>
<p>Right now, it seems that Russia will benefit greatly from the US’ political sea change, and Trump has <a href="http://ktla.com/2016/11/14/putin-calls-to-congratulate-trump-who-sees-strong-and-enduring-relationship-with-russia/">spoken positively</a> of Putin while barely acknowledging <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/us/politics/trumps-press-conference-highlights-russia.html">Russian interference</a> in the election. </p>
<p>But one could quickly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/12/16/donald-trump-doesnt-know-it-yet-but-vladimir-putin-is-going-to-dump-him/?utm_term=.7bf193e772c7">“dump” the other</a>. Politicians usually know how to separate policy-making from personal feelings. Trump and Putin, on the other hand, vain and thin-skinned, are unlikely to compromise or backtrack if their pride is threatened. </p>
<p>Such unprecedented uncertainty bodes badly for growth prospects in 2017. But strongmen in power in Washington and Moscow bodes well for future populists.</p>
<p>France, where Marine Le Pen is a <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/is-france-ready-for-marine-le-pen/a-37086518">strong contender for the presidency</a>, may be the test case of whether 2017 really is the year of the strongman (or strongwoman). If she wins, it could spell the end of the European Union. </p>
<p>As voters go to the polls in France and Germany later this year, the stakes have never been higher.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Stuenkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Populists now run the United States, Russia, Turkey, and the Philippines — as well as many Latin American and African nations. What does this mean for the world?Oliver Stuenkel, Associate Professor of International Relations, Fundação Getulio VargasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/696992017-01-03T10:10:24Z2017-01-03T10:10:24ZFive little-known diseases to watch out for in 2017<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149646/original/image-20161212-26051-1qqhi8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-532958533/stock-photo-bangkok-thailand-november-19-2016-unidentified-people-fogging-ddt-spray-kill-mosquito-for-control-malaria-encephalitis-dengue-and-zika-in-village-at-bangkok-thailand.html?src=-1SsZngNkgZFwAQT6dkVBw-1-67">PongMoji/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The phrase “emerging disease”, to describe an infectious disease that is new to humans or which is suddenly increasing its geographical range or number of cases, dates back <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/5231450">to the 1960s</a>. But it was the realisation in the late 1970s and early 1980s that the world was in the throes of previously unrecognised pandemics of <a href="http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2013/10/14/infdis.jit459.full">genital herpes</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5021a1.htm">AIDS</a>, that really propelled the term into the mainstream. </p>
<p>The causative agent of genital herpes was type 2 herpes simplex virus (HSV-2), a pathogen that was reasonably well-known at the time, but whose capacity for explosive spread had been underestimated. AIDS, on the other hand, was a completely new infectious agent – one which <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4254776/">we now know</a> had been spreading unrecognised since the early 20th century.</p>
<p>Since then, emerging diseases have been appearing at an accelerating rate. Part of the explanation for this may simply be that we are much better at detecting them now. On the other hand, population pressure, climate change and ecological degradation may be contributing to a situation where zoonosis – the movement of a disease from a vertebrate animal to a human host – is more common. </p>
<p>Whatever the explanation, <a href="http://www.who.int/medicines/areas/access/hepCtreat_key_facts/en/">hepatitis C</a> (1989), <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs354/en/">West Nile virus</a> (1999), <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/SARS/Pages/Introduction.aspx">SARS</a> (2003), <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs327/en/">Chikungunya</a> (2005), <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/">swine flu</a> (2009), <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/coronavirus_infections/en/">MERS</a> (2012), <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27624088">Ebola</a> (2014) and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27716242">Zika</a> (2015) have all since had their time in the media spotlight. A further 33 diseases have featured in the World Health Organisation’s <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/en/">Disease Outbreak News</a> since its inception in 1996. Of the “big eight” listed above, six are known zoonotic diseases – and the remaining two (hepatitis C and Chikungunya) are assumed to be so, although the animal reservoir remains undiscovered.</p>
<p>So what other new infectious diseases are on the horizon? These are the ones to watch for in 2017.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs375/en/"><strong>Leishmaniasis:</strong></a>. Historically known as “Aleppo boil”, this parasitic infection has recently, as the name suggests, become a problem <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/10/14-0288_article">among Syrian refugees</a>. Producing disfiguring skin ulcerations, and occasionally spreading to internal organs with fatal consequences, the increase of cases turning up in Europe among migrants has made it the subject of considerable <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/features/leishmaniasis-what-is-the-flesh-eating-disease-thats-spreading-across-syria-a6776446.html">media interest</a>. Leishmaniasis is spread by the bite of the sandfly, however, which means it has a northern limit to its range.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149434/original/image-20161209-31385-1ex1d6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149434/original/image-20161209-31385-1ex1d6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149434/original/image-20161209-31385-1ex1d6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149434/original/image-20161209-31385-1ex1d6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149434/original/image-20161209-31385-1ex1d6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149434/original/image-20161209-31385-1ex1d6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149434/original/image-20161209-31385-1ex1d6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The disfiguring effects of leishmanianism.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/4945247872_dce9b02d9f_oLeishmaniasis2.jpg">Otis Historical Archives</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs207/en/"><strong>Rift Valley Fever:</strong></a>. This virus is spread by a variety of biting insects but fortunately does not transmit from person to person. Humans appear only to be infected by mosquitoes that have previously bitten livestock. Nevertheless, RVF has been expanding its range in Africa, most recently pushing north-west into <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/24-november-2016-rift-valley-fever-niger/en/">the Sahel region</a>. </p>
<p>It often turns up in <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/02-august-2016-rift-valley-fever-china/en/">travellers returning from affected areas</a> and one of those could be the carrier that takes RVF out of Africa and into new continents. Beginning, as many viruses do, with a vague fever, aches and pains, RVF can progress to internal bleeding, liver failure, brain inflammation and blindness. The death rate is only 1% but rises to 50% if bleeding occurs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9840586"><strong>Oropouche:</strong></a>. Another virus that has recently been <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/03-june-2016-oropouche-peru/en/">expanding its range</a> and which is spread by mosquitoes of the genus <em>Culex</em>. This is always <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23933421">bad news</a> (as was previously found for West Nile virus), since <em>Culex</em> has a far wider distribution than the <em>Aedes</em> mosquitoes that spread Zika or the sandflies that spread Leishmaniasis. </p>
<p>Whether Oropouche’s recent expansion out of its Amazonian heartland to neighbouring parts of South America is just a local fluctuation or the beginnings of a Zika-esque global tour, remains to be seen. Oropouche is normally a self-limiting fever with loss of appetite, headaches and vomiting, but the occasional meningitis complication is more concerning.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10028074"><strong>Mayaro:</strong></a>. Characterised by fever, aches and pains and a rash, Mayaro is distant relative of Chikungunya, and spread by biting <em>Aedes</em> mosquitoes, Mayaro made a recent surprise <a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/22/11/16-1015_article">appearance in Haiti</a> and beat its Amazonian rival Oropouche to the coveted title of “<a href="http://fusion.net/story/348905/is-mayaro-virus-the-next-zika/">the next Zika</a>”. Mayaro, like cholera, may be just another infectious disease that took advantage of the degradation of Haiti’s already impoverished health infrastructure by the 2010 earthquake. </p>
<p>This illustrates a general point that emerging diseases tend to flourish where wars flare up or the breakdown of civil society occurs. Syria’s Leishmaniasis and the expansion of Rift Valley Fever into areas of West Africa beset by decades of insurgency are probably far from coincidental.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cdc.gov/elizabethkingia/"><strong>Elizabethkingia:</strong></a> is the sole bacterial pathogen on the list – the only one that isn’t spread by biting insects and the only one that is found worldwide. So Elizabethkingia won’t be expanding its range but may be <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/21-april-2016-elizabethkingia-usa/en/">expanding its clinical impact</a> in a world where antibiotics can no longer be relied upon to save our lives from bacterial infections. </p>
<p>Unlike the others, Elizabethkingia isn’t in the “possibly coming soon” category but is already here. Its variety of presentations – from pneumonia to meningitis to sepsis – together with recent increases in virulence and antibiotic resistance, make it a potentially formidable adversary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek Gatherer has received funding from Rosetrees Trust, Sunway University, the UK NHS and the Cancer & Polio Research Fund for work on viral infections, but not for any of the diseases mentioned in this article. </span></em></p>Emerging diseases on which the experts are keeping a close eye.Derek Gatherer, Lecturer, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/702482016-12-20T17:49:38Z2016-12-20T17:49:38ZCould Hulu and Google upend the TV industry in 2017?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150577/original/image-20161217-18030-1152oms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">TV networks are trying to win back cord-cutters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-111689699/stock-photo-old-television-falling-down-from-sky-outdoors.html?src=DcN_tOOPx5e_4_a6m99KNg-1-18">'Falling TV' via www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The transformation of U.S. television that <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/126732/2015-year-changed-tv-forever">began in 2015</a> – with more companies distributing television content over the internet – continued in 2016. Over the past year, however, the pace of change was slower and drew fewer headlines, even as <a href="http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2016/on-demand-demographics-vod-viewing-across-generations.html">more viewers moved away</a> from live, network-scheduled viewing to recorded, on-demand or streaming services.</p>
<p>But several subtler developments point to coming changes in the new year. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/11/1/13490026/hulu-disney-fox-espn-fox-sports-streaming-tv">Hulu</a> and <a href="http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/cbs-google-youtube-carriage-deal-1201894255/">Google</a> announced plans to offer bundled channel services, joining those launched by SlingTV, Sony’s Vue and, most recently, AT&T’s DirecTV Now. All offer many popular channels currently available from cable and satellite services like Comcast and Charter. The main difference is that they stream all the content from these channels over the internet. </p>
<p>These new bundled channel packages are meant to compete with cable or satellite, and some have called them “<a href="http://fortune.com/2016/12/14/cord-cutting-slows-skinny-bundle/">skinny bundles</a>” under the assumption that they’ll have fewer channels and be cheaper. But that’s not necessarily the case. </p>
<p>So why would a viewer want to switch to these services? Why are they starting to saturate the market, and what do they mean for the future of television? </p>
<h2>Not necessarily cheaper (or better)</h2>
<p>As they’ve come to market, many of the services aren’t so “skinny” after all: <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/30/13788934/directv-now-att-internet-tv-service-questions-pricing-channels">DirecTV Now</a> offers a package with more than 100 channels that currently costs US$35 per month but will eventually cost $60 per month. The cheapest <a href="https://www.playstation.com/en-us/network/vue/channels/?ultra">Vue package</a> costs $30 a month for 45 channels. </p>
<p>The average monthly cable bill <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/09/23/average-cable-tv-bill/">surpassed $100</a> this year, once set-top box fees, special channel fees and taxes are figured in. So these new services might look like a significant amount of savings. </p>
<p>But while some customers may pay less by switching, it’s worth noting that someone who signs up for a new bundled service will still need to pay for internet service. And many of the traditional cable companies – Comcast, Charter, Cox – are also internet providers. Although these companies might be <a href="http://www.fiercecable.com/cable/comcast-loses-5-50-a-month-when-a-customer-ditches-video-analyst-concludes?utm_medium=nl&utm_source">losing cable subscribers</a>, they’ve been able to retain them as internet customers and charge them more because customers lose discounts offered for combining cable and internet service. </p>
<p>Internet providers have also started charging more for internet access. In the last year, many <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/10/07/comcast-internet-data-caps/">established monthly caps</a> on data that require subscribers to pay additional fees if they exceed the cap. Having all of a household’s television delivered by the internet – which would be the case if you started streaming all of your television via a bundled service – exhausts a lot of data.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, though bundled services offer many of the same channels, they have limited on-demand libraries and don’t have DVRs to let viewers record shows. Viewers outside the largest cities won’t have access to local programming or live broadcast shows. And while they allow viewers to watch on internet-connected TVs, computers and mobile devices, some limit how many devices can be used simultaneously. (For example, DirecTV Now only allows two devices to be used at a time.) </p>
<h2>An opportunity to profit</h2>
<p>Ever since high-quality, streaming services emerged in 2010, it was clear that the business of television was in for radical change. </p>
<p>Bundled channel services have an opportunity to be immensely profitable because – since they’re streamed over the internet – anyone in the country can buy them. Cable services, on the other hand, are geographically limited to the houses reached by their wires. </p>
<p>For Hulu and Google, an especially attractive target is the 20 million so-called <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/tvs-looming-threat-cord-nevers-1444151008">“cord-cutters” or “cord-nevers”</a> that don’t pay for cable and watch television only via on-demand, internet-distributed services such as Netflix. </p>
<p>Traditional channels and networks were initially <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/7/14/12188984/apple-skinny-bundles-web-tv-hollywood-reporter">hesitant about joining</a> internet-distributed services. But now they’ve changed their tune and are eager to make deals to be included. DirecTV Now has all of the broadcast networks except for CBS and The CW, and Hulu’s service is reportedly just as robust. Such advertiser-supported channels find bundled channel services more attractive because they can prevent viewers from fast-forwarding through commercials.</p>
<h2>For viewers, a different flavor of the same thing?</h2>
<p>When customers sign up for these bundled services, they aren’t able to choose from a menu of channels. In fact, these new services are starting to look more and more like the cable and satellite services that give customers <a href="http://www.carseywolf.ucsb.edu/mip/article/channel-bundles-persist%E2%80%94-now%E2%80%94despite-digital-disruption">no choice but to pay for far more channels than they want</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, internet distribution still liberates television from the shackles of scheduled programming. Viewers have a lot more choice in what and when they watch. <a href="https://theconversation.com/appeals-court-upholds-net-neutrality-rules-why-you-should-care-61064">Net neutrality policy has been important</a> because it created rules that ensured internet providers must treat all content the same – that they can’t charge websites to load more quickly or give advantages to sites they own. This encouraged companies to innovate, leading to more competition and more choices. </p>
<p>Notably, the new administration is <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/11/21/trump-net-neutrality-fcc/">rumored to be hostile</a> to net neutrality policies. So the future of these internet-distributed bundles is already in question.</p>
<p>While the bundled services are another stepping stone in transforming the business of television, they’re likely little more than that. They do, however, indicate new willingness on the part of networks and channels to embrace a competitive environment that includes broadcasting, cable and internet distribution of television.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Lotz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Next year Hulu and Google will introduce their own bundled channel services. Will it spark an online TV revolution or simply lead to more of the same?Amanda Lotz, Fellow, Peabody Media Center; Professor of Media Studies, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.