tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/7-billion-people-1774/articles7 billion people – The Conversation2011-11-01T03:16:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/40852011-11-01T03:16:21Z2011-11-01T03:16:21ZSustaining 7 billion: Australia’s part in planning for population growth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5037/original/City_2_Surf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The world's population is racing ahead compared to growth in the rest of the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/7-billion-people">SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE</a>: As the global population passed the seven billion mark yesterday (give or take a few months – the data aren’t exact), Australia’s resident population will reach about <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument">22.75 million</a>. Given that our population represents just 0.325% or 1 in every 308 people on the planet, does the milestone have any relevance for Australia? </p>
<p>Indeed it does. World population will continue increasing well beyond 7 billion. The latest medium series projections from the UN estimates there will be 9.3 billion on the planet by mid-century, with growth continuing for several more decades after that. </p>
<p>Much of it will be in the poorest parts of the world, leading to increased pressure to migrate to wealthier areas. </p>
<p>More aid will need to be provided to developing countries and to open up more trade opportunities. </p>
<h2>The challenges</h2>
<p>The 7 billion milestone is also a useful reminder that we need to plan for coming demographic change. Such planning is often best undertaken at national and local scales. </p>
<p>Indeed, the United Nations Population Fund’s new report <a href="http://foweb.unfpa.org/SWP2011/reports/EN-SWOP2011-FINAL.pdf">The State of the World Population 2011</a> focuses to a large extent on nine individual countries rather than global totals and averages. It examines demographic and development challenges including ageing, urbanisation, food security, family planning, clean drinking water, poverty, unemployment, and climate change. And we need to worry about all of these in Australia too.</p>
<h2>Down Under</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geor.2011.49.issue-3/issuetoc">latest projections</a> of Australia’s future population are presented as ranges instead of exact numbers, because there are so many unpredictable factors involved. </p>
<p>By 2031 our projections indicate that 95% of possible population outcomes for Australia will put the population between 27 and 33 million. Twenty years later in 2051, it spans 29 to 43 million. The proportion of the population aged 65 years and above will lie between 21% and 28%. </p>
<p>The key point is that, although there is some uncertainty about the extent of future demographic change, population change is unlikely to fall outside those 95% intervals. Hence, Australia’s population will definitely grow and age over the next 40 years.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the growth rate is pretty fast relative to the world as a whole. The middle of the projected range for Australia’s population translates to an annual average growth rate gradually falling from about 1.5% in 2010-15 to 0.9% by 2045-50. </p>
<p>For the world as a whole the equivalent figures from the United Nations’ medium projection are 1.1% and 0.4%.</p>
<h2>Where the people will be</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5039/original/Flickr_Two_Big_Paws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5039/original/Flickr_Two_Big_Paws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5039/original/Flickr_Two_Big_Paws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5039/original/Flickr_Two_Big_Paws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5039/original/Flickr_Two_Big_Paws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5039/original/Flickr_Two_Big_Paws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5039/original/Flickr_Two_Big_Paws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most of Australia’s population growth will be in the cities. The increase in rural areas will remain limited.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Two Big Paws</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Much of Australia’s projected population growth is likely to occur in the capital city metropolitan regions. </p>
<p>ABS projections suggest that by mid-century both Sydney and Melbourne’s populations could be well above 6 million and those of Brisbane and Perth in excess of 3 million. </p>
<p>Outside the big metropolitan areas, population change is likely to be strong in coastal regions adjacent to capital cities, while there will be little overall difference in population in the remote outback areas. Almost all areas of the country will experience population ageing. </p>
<p>Clearly, these projections present significant urban planning challenges. Many of these are well known, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The need for a lot more housing, whilst trying to prevent endless urban sprawl.</p></li>
<li><p>Increased demand for services such as water, sewerage and power.</p></li>
<li><p>The need for more transport infrastructure.</p></li>
<li><p>Employment growth outside the CBD to reduce long commuting times and transport congestion.</p></li>
<li><p>Minimising the environmental footprints of urban growth.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In Australia much of this planning currently goes on at state and local government level.</p>
<h2>Changing government</h2>
<p>There is, I believe, <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-need-for-a-comprehensive-vision-for-australias-population-1302">scope for planning</a> to be integrated into an Australia-wide population policy with an explicitly stated set of goals, coordinated perhaps by a government department combining the currently separate areas of Immigration and Sustainable Population. </p>
<p>Regrettably, the federal government’s <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/sustainability/population/publications/strategy.html">Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities</a> document released in May this year was light on specific objectives and shied away from population projections. </p>
<p>A more effective population policy would take projections as its starting point. </p>
<h2>Development and sustainability</h2>
<p>The State of the World Population report discourages readers from paying too much attention to the headline figure of 7 billion and instead emphasises the importance of development and sustainability. </p>
<p>The same general approach could be recommended for Australia’s population policy. </p>
<p>So rather than aiming for a particular population total, for example, one of the goals might be to prevent excessive population ageing by aiming for a total fertility rate of at least 1.8 babies per woman. </p>
<p>Building on current immigration arrangements, another goal might be to set a minimum proportion of the annual <a href="http://www.immi.gov.au/skilled/_pdf/migplan11-12.pdf">Migration Program</a> intake to designated regional areas. </p>
<p>And the <a href="http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/60refugee.htm">Humanitarian Program</a> could be increased in light of growing global population.</p>
<p>The State of the World Population report argues that with careful planning and investment in people and infrastructure at the present time, a more populous world can be a more productive, healthy and sustainable place. </p>
<p>Australia shouldn’t be the exception.</p>
<p><strong>Read more:</strong> </p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/why-chinas-mega-cities-leave-their-citizens-struggling-3165">Why China’s mega-cities leave their citizens struggling</a> </p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/seven-billion-reasons-to-open-our-hearts-and-homes-to-adoption-4044">Seven billion reasons to open our hearts and homes to adoption</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/population-is-only-part-of-the-environmental-impact-equation-4009">Population is only part of the environmental impact equation</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/rise-of-the-planet-of-the-homosapiens-the-death-sentence-for-other-life-4010">Rise of the planet of homosapiens: The death sentence for other life</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/seven-billion-reasons-to-be-a-feminist-4082">Seven billion reasons to be a feminist</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The population projections research mentioned in this article was funded by the Queensland Centre for Population Research which is financially supported by both the Office of Economic and Statistical Research of Queensland Treasury and The University of Queensland.
All opinions expressed here are those of the author alone.
</span></em></p>SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE: As the global population passed the seven billion mark yesterday (give or take a few months – the data aren’t exact), Australia’s resident population will reach about 22.75 million…Tom Wilson, Senior Research Fellow, Queensland Centre for Population Research, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/40822011-10-31T19:35:40Z2011-10-31T19:35:40ZSeven billion reasons to be a feminist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5024/original/Mother_and_child_Flickr_-PhotograTree-.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women will be the key to dealing with the growth in population.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/PhotograTree</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/7-billion-people">SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE</a>: I had better write fast. Sometime between my deadline to submit this story and the time it goes live, the <a href="http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">estimated world population</a> will exceed 7 billion for the first time ever.</p>
<p>As I stare at the population clock, I am paralysed at the sheer speed at which the number of people grows. I am terrified at how our world might support all those lives. </p>
<p>But the biggest challenge of all is how to elevate the lives of more than one billion people already alive who eke a living from less than $1 per day, so that they live a life free of famine and preventable disease.</p>
<p>Since at least 1798, when <a href="http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Malthus.html">Thomas Robert Malthus</a> argued that population would soon outstrip agricultural production, pessimists have foretold famine, disease and conflict if population growth isn’t reined in.</p>
<p>But some economists and demographers don’t see the problem this way. To them, Malthus was a crank who never grasped the ambit of human ingenuity. Industrialisation, slave-powered Caribbean sugar colonies and the New England cod fisheries revolutionised food production in the 19th Century. Green revolution supercrops staved off Malthusian misery in the 1960s.</p>
<p>Yet we need only look at the appalling famines in Somalia and neighbouring countries to see what happens when too many people try to scrape a living from the land. The great biologist EO Wilson <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Diversity-Life-Edward-Wilson/dp/0393319407">puts it sharply</a>: “The raging monster upon the land is population growth. In its presence sustainability is but a fragile theoretical construct. To say, as many do, that the difficulties of nations are not due to people but to poor ideology or land-use management is sophistic.” </p>
<h2>Longevity</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5021/original/Screen_shot_2011-10-31_at_11.59.29_AM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5021/original/Screen_shot_2011-10-31_at_11.59.29_AM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5021/original/Screen_shot_2011-10-31_at_11.59.29_AM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5021/original/Screen_shot_2011-10-31_at_11.59.29_AM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5021/original/Screen_shot_2011-10-31_at_11.59.29_AM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5021/original/Screen_shot_2011-10-31_at_11.59.29_AM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5021/original/Screen_shot_2011-10-31_at_11.59.29_AM.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The annual population growth rate has fallen dramatically since the 1960s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It took 2 million years of human history for humanity to notch up its first billion in 1800. Yet the next billion took only 127 years, and by 1960, a mere 33 years later, there were three billion. The fastest ever growth rate came in the sixties, with the fourth billion taking only 14 years. </p>
<p>But despite this explosion, the world population growth rate has slowed dramatically since the early seventies. To me, this slowing in global population growth is the big story. It is where any hope for a sustainable future lies. </p>
<p>For most of history, our ancestors had many children, yet population grew at a trickle because life tended to be short. Mothers routinely died in childbirth, and infants and young children often didn’t make it to adolescence.</p>
<p>The explosion in human population, from 1 billion at the start of the industrial revolution to 7 billion barely 200 years later, comes almost entirely from improved survival. </p>
<p>A genuine understanding of hygiene and disease, immunisation programs, sanitation, clean water, antibiotics and massive improvements in agriculture all contributed to longer lives and better childhood survival.</p>
<p>Whenever mortality plummets like this and birth rates remain high, then population growth goes through the roof. Our capacity to breed prolifically should be no surprise. After all, evolution has equipped us to excel at reproduction. </p>
<h2>Quality over quantity</h2>
<p>Every person alive today comes from an unbroken line of successful ancestors – people who managed to have at least one child. Many of the most successful ancestors in history are the people who had large numbers of children. </p>
<p>As a result, the genes we inherited from them tend to be genes that give us the behaviour, physiology and anatomy of successful breeders.</p>
<p>But evolution can also be subtle. Sometimes the best way to become an ancestor is not to go at it like rabbits, but to be more judicious in how much we invest in each of our children.</p>
<p>People invest enormous effort in caring for their children, teaching them and preparing them for the day they have to make their own way in the world.</p>
<p>In short, millions of years of evolution have equipped us to be exquisitely sensitive to our circumstances in our decisions about how much to invest in each of our children. </p>
<p>When mortality – especially child mortality – is high, it makes sense to have plenty of kids, because not all of them will survive. More so when children can gather food or work on the farm.</p>
<p>But when child mortality drops and skills and knowledge become economically more rewarding than manual labour, then the best way to ensure each child’s success is to invest in caring for them and educating them. </p>
<p>That is precisely what happens when economies industrialise. Families that educate and invest in their children achieve social mobility. </p>
<p>Since the start of the industrial revolution, birth rates have plummeted in Europe, north America and Australia as families shifted from having as many children as they could afford to investing as much as they could in a modest brood.</p>
<h2>Sexual conflict</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5026/original/Phillippines_baby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5026/original/Phillippines_baby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5026/original/Phillippines_baby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5026/original/Phillippines_baby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5026/original/Phillippines_baby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5026/original/Phillippines_baby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/5026/original/Phillippines_baby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The key to dealing with the challenges of population growth will be to educate and empower women and girls, like little Danica Camacho, the Philippines’ symbolic seven billionth baby who was born yesterday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP/Erik De Castro</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is one more important but often-overlooked piece of this puzzle. Until now I have assumed that families operate in harmony – that what is good for the mum is equally good for the dad and for the kids. </p>
<p>But in evolutionary terms, different family members can have disturbingly different agendas.</p>
<p>Every baby a woman has increases her chances of dying in labour and worsens her likely long-term health. While a father may be bereft at losing his partner in childbirth, he doesn’t lose everything. He can always remarry.</p>
<p>So women often do best, in evolutionary terms, if they have fewer, high quality offspring quality. For men, evolutionary success is more of a numbers game and men often want more children from their wives and more chances to have extra children from affairs. </p>
<p>At the heart of the trade off between offspring quality and quantity is an often sub-conscious tension between husbands and wives, and between men and women within societies.</p>
<p>The industrial era also brought forth feminism, and every step in the empowerment of women shifted the battle over family planning toward quality, smaller, families.</p>
<p>Safe contraception and access to abortion give women the means to limit their fertility.</p>
<p>Women’s education and employment give them knowledge and power within the home to do so. And when women can earn a good wage, families that limit their fertility enjoy more time with two earners.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.michellegoldberg.net/">Michelle Goldberg</a> concludes her wonderful book <a href="http://www.michellegoldberg.net/books/means-of-reproduction/">The Means of Reproduction: Sex, Power and the Future of the World</a> by arguing that only when governments take women’s needs seriously will we have any chance of avoiding Malthusian misery. But we should take those needs seriously anyway, because individual women are important.</p>
<p>That is why, she concludes, “There is no force for good as powerful as the liberation of women.”</p>
<p><em>This article is based on a chapter from Rob Brooks’ book <a href="http://robbrooks.net/the-book/">Sex, Genes and Rock and Roll: How evolution has shaped the modern world</a>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Read more:</strong> </p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/sustaining-7-billion-australias-part-in-planning-for-population-growth-4085">Sustaining 7 billion: Australia’s part in planning for population growth</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/why-chinas-mega-cities-leave-their-citizens-struggling-3165">Why China’s mega-cities leave their citizens struggling</a> </p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/seven-billion-reasons-to-open-our-hearts-and-homes-to-adoption-4044">Seven billion reasons to open our hearts and homes to adoption</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/population-is-only-part-of-the-environmental-impact-equation-4009">Population is only part of the environmental impact equation</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/rise-of-the-planet-of-the-homosapiens-the-death-sentence-for-other-life-4010">Rise of the planet of homosapiens: The death sentence for other life</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4082/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Brooks receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE: I had better write fast. Sometime between my deadline to submit this story and the time it goes live, the estimated world population will exceed 7 billion for the first time ever…Rob Brooks, Professor of Evolutionary Ecology; Director, Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/31652011-10-31T03:40:57Z2011-10-31T03:40:57ZWhy China’s mega-cities leave their citizens struggling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/3631/original/Migrant_rubbish_tip_for_Carillo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Developing smaller urban areas may mean better employment and living conditions for migrant workers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/7-billion-people">SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE</a>: The world’s seven billionth person is likely to be born today. Beatriz Carrillo Garcia, lecturer in China Studies at the University of Sydney looks at effect a growing population has on the most populus nation in the world</em>.</p>
<p>The Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, has <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gCn7zG89GlbNDelNT3ffGMEUSq7g">called for</a> better treatment of rural migrant workers after a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576383142907232726.html">wave of unrest</a> about their living conditions.</p>
<p>With a population of over 1.3 billion, China has close to 700 cities. In most developing countries, a large proportion of the population is concentrated in a few cities. In China, however, only 35 million live in cities with a population larger than 10 million. </p>
<p>Many urban economists promote industry clusters coming together to bring down production costs, and form larger markets to promote development. China has one of the world’s most dispersed urban systems, and many think its cities are too small to take advantage of <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-review/2003/q4/brq403sc.pdf">agglomeration</a>. Yet many cities in Europe are smaller than your average Chinese county town. </p>
<p>But the size of an urban centre there matters not only for its economic efficiency, but most importantly for the quality of life of its citizens, and particularly for the most vulnerable social groups. </p>
<h2>Rural migrant workers</h2>
<p>Big metropolises have not been kind to rural migrant workers. </p>
<p>Generally, the larger a city the harder it is for them to find meaningful employment and decent housing. They struggle to gain access to public services and welfare assistance. </p>
<p>Added to this is the contempt urban citizens hold for these migrants, whom they often perceive as the cause of all social problems in the city. </p>
<p>There are numerous accounts of the exploitation and social exclusion of rural migrant workers in China’s large metropolises. They point to a high degree of social tension in those cities, where in some cases up to a third of the population are non-natives.</p>
<p>The reality of large cities, however, represents only part of the story of internal migration in contemporary China. </p>
<h2>Migration</h2>
<p>In fact, during the 1980s it was the development of small towns and their enterprises that became the initial engine of economic growth. </p>
<p>Up until the mid-1990s most rural workers moved to their nearest county town in search for work, and not to a big city. </p>
<p>Since then they have been increasingly travelling longer distances in search for work, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they all head for the big cities. Sichuanese cotton pickers travelling to Xinjiang and Gansu peasants working in Shanxi’s coal mines are but two examples.</p>
<p>Over the last three decades of economic reform China’s small cities and towns have been important recipients of rural migrant labour, yet up to now we have known very little about the experiences and living conditions of these workers. </p>
<p>Moving to a small city or town has not only been a more practical and less risky endeavour - the trend has also been fostered through policy. </p>
<h2>Registering benefits</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/3630/original/China_school.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/3630/original/China_school.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/3630/original/China_school.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/3630/original/China_school.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/3630/original/China_school.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/3630/original/China_school.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/3630/original/China_school.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children of migrant workers receive a better education in urban areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/How Hwee Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Smaller urban centres make it easier for migrant workers to change their rural registration or <a href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90780/91345/7335015.html">hukou</a> into an urban one. It’s an important step towards gaining access to better job opportunities, social insurances, housing, and services such as education and health. But also allows them the possibility of staying permanently in the city or town. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, on its own, an urban hukou cannot guarantee the social inclusion of the rural migrant. </p>
<p>Small cities and towns have offered them both social and physical proximity to the countryside. In this environment it is harder to spot the migrant from the local, whereas in the big cities the rural migrant worker stands out. </p>
<p>Social contacts provide migrants with information about the urban job market, and many move to the towns to work and live with relatives. </p>
<p>Physical proximity allows rural workers to return to their home village on a daily basis, and only as they strengthen their economic foothold in the town do they begin to consider building or buying a house there. </p>
<p>This gives time for local governments to develop the housing sector, avoiding the overcrowding and poor living conditions that migrants experience in big cities. Home ownership among migrant workers in small cities and towns is much higher than amongst those living in the big metropolises, where only a tiny minority owns their dwelling. </p>
<h2>Small social development</h2>
<p>The characteristics of the host society and economy of the small city and town seems to provide more avenues for rural migrant workers to take part in urban socio-economic life. </p>
<p>More often than not the constraints faced by migrant workers in small urban centres are the same constraints faced by local urban citizens: expensive and limited healthcare and education services and low social security coverage rates, amongst other issues. </p>
<p>The promotion of social development in smaller urban centres is hence very likely to benefit its rural migrant population, and in turn make it more likely for them to set roots in these towns, as they are already doing in growing numbers. </p>
<p>Social development in the big metropolises is, and will probably remain at least in the medium term, only the right of urban citizens.</p>
<p><strong>Read more:</strong> </p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/sustaining-7-billion-australias-part-in-planning-for-population-growth-4085">Sustaining 7 billion: Australia’s part in planning for population growth</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/seven-billion-reasons-to-be-a-feminist-4082">Seven billion reasons to be a feminist </a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/seven-billion-reasons-to-open-our-hearts-and-homes-to-adoption-4044">Seven billion reasons to open our hearts and homes to adoption</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/population-is-only-part-of-the-environmental-impact-equation-4009">Population is only part of the environmental impact equation</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/rise-of-the-planet-of-the-homosapiens-the-death-sentence-for-other-life-4010">Rise of the planet of homosapiens: The death sentence for other life</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/3165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatriz Carrillo Garcia receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE: The world’s seven billionth person is likely to be born today. Beatriz Carrillo Garcia, lecturer in China Studies at the University of Sydney looks at effect a growing population…Beatriz Carrillo Garcia, Lecturer in China Studies, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/40442011-10-31T03:25:46Z2011-10-31T03:25:46ZSeven billion reasons to open our hearts and homes to adoption<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4958/original/jeffreylowy_flickr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More children are ending up in orphanages as population rises.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jeffreylowy/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/7-billion-people">SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE</a>: Today the Earth’s population has reached 7 billion.</p>
<p>With so many of us here now, there is no better time to reflect on the world we want and how we can create it.</p>
<p>Some of us are lucky enough to be enjoying longer and healthier lives than our great-grandparents. Many of us though, are far less fortunate. Huge inequalities persist.</p>
<h2>What are the challenges that 7 billion people brings?</h2>
<p>At current rates of growth, 78 million people are joining the global community each year. As more people join us, the decisions we make as individuals, communities and nations become ever more important. </p>
<p>Climate change means more people are increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity, water shortages and weather-related disasters. This is a massive challenge. </p>
<p>In times like these, we need to keep open hearts and minds. Our wellbeing, like never before, demands we embrace our common humanity, accept our diversity and unite as one family. </p>
<p>Firstly, population is only part of our problem. We have yet to fully engage in sustainable consumption practices.</p>
<p>Both <em>how much</em> and <em>what</em> we consume are relevant. This practice of defining our status and identity through the things we buy and consume really needs to be superseded by more fulfilling and eco-friendly pursuits and practices. </p>
<h2>What reduces population growth?</h2>
<p>The evidence is clear that reducing poverty and inequality slows population growth. </p>
<p>When a girl in the developing world receives seven or more years of education, she marries four years later and has 2.2 fewer children.</p>
<p>It is true that many of us in Australia are already choosing to have fewer children. This has been made possible by contraception and reflects changing social attitudes and greater opportunities for women’s participation in the workforce.</p>
<p>However, some 215 million women in the developing world do not have access to contraception and are not able to exercise their reproductive rights. Development assistance for contraception has stalled at US$400 million a year, <a href="http://7billionactions.org/brand-guidelines/docs/communication/KeyFacts/7BA-Factsheet-v5-En.pdf">50% below 1995 levels</a>.</p>
<p>The unmet need for contraception results in <a href="http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/FB-AIU-summary.pdf">82% of all unintended pregnancies</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s aid assistance needs to better provide for women and girls’ education and reproductive rights. </p>
<h2>More children, and more children without parents</h2>
<p>While the long-term aim may be to decrease unwanted births, there are many children in the world today who need parental care. </p>
<p>There are now an estimated 150 million children worldwide without parents. These children’s parents might be dead, missing, in prison or simply unable to care for their child or children.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4963/original/adoption_aap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4963/original/adoption_aap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4963/original/adoption_aap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4963/original/adoption_aap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4963/original/adoption_aap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4963/original/adoption_aap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/4963/original/adoption_aap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adoption isn’t just for the rich and famous.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP/Yoshikazu Tsuno</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result, the number of children in need of adoption is going up. Yet adoption rates in Australia are going down. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/fhs/adoption/report.htm">2005 inquiry</a> into the adoption of children from overseas found that there is a general attitude against intercountry adoption in most jurisdictions in Australia. This ranges from indifference or lack of support to hostility. Understandably, it causes great distress to prospective parents seeking to adopt children from overseas.</p>
<p>The inquiry found that, due to past practices, such as forced adoptions leading to “the stolen generation”, Australia has developed an anti-adoption culture. </p>
<p>The decline in adoption might also be explained by the increasing numbers of children being born as a result of new reproductive technology such as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-09-17/birth-rate-of-ivf-babies-doubles/2263756">IVF</a>.</p>
<p>It is always preferable for a child to be cared for by his or her extended family and/or within his or her <a href="http://www.iss-ssi.org/2009/assets/files/thematic-facts-sheet/eng/35.Subsidiarite%20eng.pdf">community</a>. But this is not always possible.</p>
<p>In all cases, respect for the best interests of the child is a primary consideration. The <a href="http://www.ag.gov.au/www/agd/agd.nsf/Page/IntercountryAdoption_TheHagueconventiononintercountryAdoption">Hague Convention on Intercountry Adoption</a> reflects this. Australia ratified the convention in August 1998 and implemented the convention in law months later. </p>
<p>The Convention focuses on the need for countries to work to prevent the abduction, sale, or trafficking of children. </p>
<p>Adoption processes in Australia can take from four to ten years. Australia is way down the bottom in terms of the number of adoptions and the time taken for adoption processes. </p>
<h2>Adoption isn’t second-best</h2>
<p>We need to recognise and embrace adoption as the compassionate, rational and sustainable method of family creation that it is.</p>
<p>We might start with the following changes:</p>
<p>1) Streamline adoption processes and minimise waiting and processing times. This might be achieved by allowing properly trained and resourced accredited bodies to take on some of the applicant screening and assessment work.</p>
<p>2) Extend support and respect to prospective parents as they go through the adoption process.</p>
<p>3) Foster a positive culture and accept adoption in Australia more widely.</p>
<p>4) Encourage young couples to form their families through adoption.</p>
<p>5) Provide financial assistance and tax incentives for adoption.</p>
<p>6) Reform adoption processes to include adequate pre- and post-adoptive services.</p>
<p>Being adopted does not need to define a child. Families formed by adoption are linked by law and love. </p>
<p>Of course adoption is a serious undertaking. Many adopted children have special needs – not surprising given the tough lives many children live prior to placement with adoptive parents. </p>
<p>November 6-13 is <a href="http://www.adoptionawarenessweek.com.au/">National Adoption Awareness Week</a>. This is an occasion when we might ask ourselves – what makes a family?</p>
<p>I would define a family as a group of people who are there for each other and love and support each other. Members of families protect and guide each other. They share and experience joy and sorrow together. </p>
<p>The population issue is about people. In a world of 7 billion, we need to be able to count on one another. We need to embrace our common humanity, accept our diversity and unite as one family.</p>
<p>In a world of 7 billion, I believe it is time that we consider our most vulnerable citizens and open our hearts and homes to adoption. </p>
<p><strong>Further reading:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://7billionactions.org/">7 Billion Actions</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.adoptionawarenessweek.com.au/Home">National Adoption Awareness Week</a> </li>
<li>Adoption in Australia, <a href="http://www.ag.gov.au/intercountryadoption">Attorney Generals Department
</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.aican.org/">Australian Intercountry Adoption Network</a></li>
<li><a href="http://http://www.girleffect.org/question">The Girl Effect</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.un.org/womenwatch">Womenwatch</a> </li>
<li><a href="http://www.wikigender.org">Wikigender</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.unfpa.org/gender">UNFPA website on gender equality</a></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4044/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Daly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE: Today the Earth’s population has reached 7 billion. With so many of us here now, there is no better time to reflect on the world we want and how we can create it. Some of us are lucky…Jane Daly, PhD Candidate, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/40092011-10-30T19:44:35Z2011-10-30T19:44:35ZPopulation is only part of the environmental impact equation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/4999/original/slums_World_Resources.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Every new person is a new consumer of resources.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">World Resources</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/7-billion-people">SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE</a>: In the early 1970s, three leading American scientists were locked in a passionate debate about what had made the greatest contribution to humanity’s impact on the environment. </p>
<p>The environmentalist and biologist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Commoner">Barry Commoner</a> argued that advances in technology since World War II had been the most significant. </p>
<p>The entomologist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich">Paul Ehrlich</a>, author of the famous 1968 book <a href="http://books.google.com/books/about/The_population_bomb.html?id=YixeAAAAIAAJ">The Population Bomb</a>, and the physicist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Holdren">John Holdren</a>, now director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, maintained that humans’ environmental impact was also a function of population and consumption levels.</p>
<p>The debate led to the creation of what is now known as the IPAT formula. This states that humans’ impact on the environment (I) is the product of population (P), affluence (A) and the impact of technology (T): or I = PAT. An increase in just one of these parameters, therefore, increases our environmental impact.</p>
<p>The world’s population is now seven billion, and we are expected to reach nine billion by 2040. </p>
<p>A few nations, such as Japan, Russia and Italy, are experiencing negative population growth. But most countries’ populations are growing, albeit at a reduced rate in recent years. </p>
<p>Growth rates are particularly high in the Middle East, South and South-East Asia, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>Every new person is a new mouth to feed, a new body to clothe and keep warm, a new consumer of resources and a new producer of waste.</p>
<p>According to Ehrlich and Holdren, population growth has a disproportionately negative effect on the environment. A 1% increase in population doesn’t just mean a 1% increase in environmental impact. </p>
<p>In particular they argued that there was a strong link between population and pollution. Growth in population has a synergistic effect, so that different pollutants can interact and enhance their individual effects on humans and the environment – the whole effect is greater than the sum of the individual effects. </p>
<p>Secondly, they suggested that a threshold for pollution exists; below it, the environment can cope with the pollution, but above it, the system breaks down. </p>
<p>For example, 500 people living around a lake might empty their raw sewage into the lake, and the lake’s natural processes might be able to break down that sewage without harm. But if the population around that lake increases to 700 people and the lake is unable to cope, the environment begins to suffer. </p>
<p>Thirdly, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns">law of diminishing returns</a> means that as populations increase, we are demanding more and more production from agriculture and forestry. Eventually, we resort to ever higher usage of fertilisers and chemicals in an attempt to wring more from an essentially fixed supply of land. </p>
<p>Whichever way you look at it, they argued that population growth is bad news for the environment.</p>
<p>However, the “A” of the equation – affluence – is also on the increase. To be affluent is to have an abundant supply of wealth, whether in monetary form or in commodities. </p>
<p>In economic terms, it’s an indication of the level of consumption per person, and is often measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. So while China may be experiencing a population growth rate of around 0.6% per year, its GDP per person is increasing at up to 10% per year. </p>
<p>Likewise, India’s population is growing at 1.5% annually, but its GDP per capita is increasing by around 8%. With increased wealth comes increased consumption.</p>
<p>This means that people in China and India are now more than ever able to “keep up with the Joneses”, and they’re wasting no time in doing so. </p>
<p>Accoutrements such as luxury cars, flat-screen televisions and mobile phones – commonplace accessories in a western lifestyle – were once well out of reach for the masses. But as these products become cheaper, and as the average individual wealth of people in these nations increases, they are becoming more attainable. </p>
<p>An increasingly aspirational and rapidly enlarging group of consumers is buying up big-time. The result is greater consumption of resources and more rapid creation of waste. Over recent decades have this has lead to increases in “A” being much greater than increases in “P”.</p>
<p>Finally, we come to the “T” variable of the IPAT equation. This is a measure of the role technology plays in meeting the needs of these increasingly affluent and enlarging populations.</p>
<p>This particular variable is less set in stone than the other two, as it is a measure of the <em>intensity</em> of resource consumption. This means that better, more efficient technologies can lead to fewer resources being consumed for the same economic or societal benefit. </p>
<p>With a low T-value, a more efficient society is able to get more from less, consuming fewer resources to meet the same or increasing needs. It can also generate less waste from the same amount of production.</p>
<p>Of all these variables, T is the one with the most potential to move. Many of our current systems are extremely inefficient. For example, 85% of the energy that your internal combustion engine consumes is not used to move you forward but is rather converted into noise and heat. </p>
<p>This all leads to a critical challenge. As the equation I = PAT states, our impact on the environment is a function of our population, our affluence and the technologies available to us. So, while population increases and affluence are going up, we run the risk of severely impacting our natural resources. </p>
<p>One of the hallmarks of waves of innovation, however, is that technology should never be underestimated; in our book “<a href="http://sixthwave.org/">The Sixth Wave</a>” we argue that the next wave of innovation will be centred on <a href="http://theconversation.com/scarcity-as-the-mother-of-invention-can-we-consume-less-and-still-grow-3689">resource efficiency</a>.</p>
<p>In this vision of the world, technology allows us to begin to decouple economic growth from resource consumption, without compromising either population or affluence.</p>
<p><em>This article is an excerpt of “<a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/18/pid/6688.htm">The Sixth Wave: How to succeed in a resource limited world</a>” by James Bradfield Moody and Bianca Nogrady (Random House, 2010).</em></p>
<p><strong>Read more:</strong> </p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/sustaining-7-billion-australias-part-in-planning-for-population-growth-4085">Sustaining 7 billion: Australia’s part in planning for population growth</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/why-chinas-mega-cities-leave-their-citizens-struggling-3165">Why China’s mega-cities leave their citizens struggling</a> </p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/seven-billion-reasons-to-open-our-hearts-and-homes-to-adoption-4044">Seven billion reasons to open our hearts and homes to adoption</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/seven-billion-reasons-to-be-a-feminist-4082">Seven billion reasons to be a feminist</a></p>
<p><a href="http://theconversation.com/rise-of-the-planet-of-the-homosapiens-the-death-sentence-for-other-life-4010">Rise of the planet of homosapiens: The death sentence for other life</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Bradfield Moody does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE: In the early 1970s, three leading American scientists were locked in a passionate debate about what had made the greatest contribution to humanity’s impact on the environment. The…James Bradfield Moody, Executive Director, Development, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.