tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/accident-5172/articlesAccident – The Conversation2023-03-03T00:47:20Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2006452023-03-03T00:47:20Z2023-03-03T00:47:20ZDangerous selfies aren’t just foolish. We need to treat them like the public health hazard they really are<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512828/original/file-20230301-17-w9p7rl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C11%2C997%2C735&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tourist-man-on-waterfall-background-holds-679811122">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Selfies have been called everything from an <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/11/selfies-are-art/281772/">artform</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-46188454">narcissistic</a> and a sign of a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/21/dark-side-selfies-modern-obsession-damaging-mental-health-young/">dysfunctional society</a>.</p>
<p>They can <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6131996/">also kill</a>.</p>
<p>When people go to extreme lengths to take an image to share on social media – perhaps in remote or picturesque locations – they can risk their lives.</p>
<p>So we need to move beyond describing selfies as a social phenomenon, fuelled by the rise of smartphones and social media.</p>
<p>We need to treat dangerous selfies as the public health hazard they really are.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/Bkrpg2pH4dv","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>More deaths, year after year</h2>
<p>Certain picturesque locations have been linked to selfie deaths. This includes <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/02/yosemite-couple-death-selfie-photography-travel-blog-taft-point">Yosemite National Park</a> in California. In Australia, we’ve seen people die at places including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/17/sydney-cliff-fatality-woman-falls-to-death-at-popular-selfie-spot">cliffs</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-28/call-to-close-access-to-social-media-favourite-figure-8-pools/10853854">natural pools</a> and <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11770353/Gibraltar-Falls-tragedy-Patrick-Prevett-second-days-die-popular-waterfall-near-Canberra.html">waterfalls</a>.</p>
<p>These are not isolated incidents.</p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article-abstract/29/5/taab170/6404466?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false">One study</a> found 379 people worldwide were killed due to selfies between 2008 and 2021, with even more injured. Incidents are more likely in young adults, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6131996/">particularly males</a>.</p>
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<p>Many are <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26858274/">travellers or tourists</a> (particularly in Australia and the United States). In Australia and the US, selfie takers tend to be injured or killed while solo, and commonly in locations very difficult for emergency services to access. In countries such as India and Pakistan, selfie takers are more likely to die, tragically, as a group, especially near bodies of water, such as lakes. </p>
<p>Researchers have called for the introduction of “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457300.2016.1278240">no selfie zones</a>” around hotspots, such as tall buildings. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/07/a-selfie-with-a-weapon-kills-russia-launches-safe-selfie-campaign">Russian</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/26/goa-india-no-selfie-zones-coast-deaths">Indian</a> authorities have introduced these. Russia has launched a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/07/a-selfie-with-a-weapon-kills-russia-launches-safe-selfie-campaign">safe selfie</a>” guide.</p>
<p>But it’s not clear how effective these strategies have been. If anything, selfie incidents seem to be <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31895098/">increasing globally.</a> </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-that-selfie-really-worth-it-why-face-time-with-wild-animals-is-a-bad-idea-96272">Is that selfie really worth it? Why face time with wild animals is a bad idea</a>
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<h2>Media calls these foolish, selfish</h2>
<p>The media often portrays people involved in selfie incidents as <a href="https://www.outsideonline.com/adventure-travel/news-analysis/selfie-deaths/">foolish</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/10/selfish-selfie-takers-spark-trevi-fountain-fisticuffs">selfish</a>.</p>
<p>This seems to confirm <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/selfies-your-life-worth-few-likes">our research</a> showing media reports often blame the victim. Reports almost never provide safety information.</p>
<p>But taking selfies is a normal part of everyday life for millions of people. We need to stop judging people who are taking risky selfies, and instead see risky selfies as a public health issue.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Figure Eight Pools, Royal National Park, NSW" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512830/original/file-20230301-29-tustlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People have died taking selfies at Figure Eight Pools, Royal National Park, NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/figure-eight-pool-royal-national-park-2192898545">Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Why is this a public health issue?</h2>
<p>We’ve had similar problems with other activities we now see as
public health hazards. These include <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/50-years-of-mandatory-seatbelts-saving-lives-nsw">driving without a seatbelt</a>, riding a <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-be-fooled-keeping-bike-helmets-is-best-for-health-661">bicycle without a helmet</a>, smoking cigarettes or excessive alcohol consumption. These are all examples people once considered “normal”, which we now see as risky. Taking dangerous selfies needs to be added to that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6131996/">list</a>.</p>
<p>By thinking of these selfies as a public health issue, we move away from victim blaming and instead need to effectively communicate risk to selfie-takers.</p>
<p>One example relates to the popular selfie hotspot, Figure Eight Pools in the Royal National Park, New South Wales, where people can be overwhelmed by big, “<a href="https://www.theillawarraflame.com.au/science--nature/dr-rips-science-of-the-surf">freak</a>” waves. Authorities have produced a <a href="https://www.nationalparks.nsw.gov.au/things-to-do/lookouts/figure-eight-pools">colour-coded risk rating</a> that takes into account ocean and weather conditions. People can go online to see if the risk of going to the pools is “very low” to “extreme”.</p>
<p>If we think of these risky selfies as a public health issue we also move towards education and prevention.</p>
<p>Signs at selfie hotspots are one thing. But we know signs are often ignored, or simply not seen.</p>
<p>So we need to better communicate safety messages to selfie takers when and how they will actually take notice.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/news/2021/12/selfies--is-your-life-worth-a-few--likes--">Our research with Instagram</a> aims to do this by communicating directly to selfie takers through the Instagram app. The aim is to tailor safety messaging to Instagram users by geolocating them with known risky selfie spots – sending users a safety alert in real time. </p>
<p>With the right communication strategy, we know we can reduce the number of these entirely avoidable tragedies.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/travelgram-live-tourist-snaps-have-turned-solo-adventures-into-social-occasions-124583">#travelgram: live tourist snaps have turned solo adventures into social occasions</a>
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<h2>5 tips to stay safe when taking selfies in nature</h2>
<p><strong>1. Think about weather and water conditions</strong></p>
<p>Weather and coastal conditions can change rapidly. Just because the weather and waves don’t appear dangerous when you start your selfie journey, they might be when you get there. <a href="https://www.nationalparks.nsw.gov.au/things-to-do/lookouts/figure-eight-pools">Check before you go</a>, avoid bad weather, and keep a close eye on tidal and wave conditions.</p>
<p><strong>2. Don’t walk past safety signs and physical barriers</strong></p>
<p>Warning signs are there to provide life-saving information. Pay attention to signs and heed their advice. Don’t jump or go around any physical barriers blocking access. They are likely there for a good reason.</p>
<p><strong>3. Stay on the designated path</strong></p>
<p>Staying on paths and trails is safest and also does fragile ecosystems a big favour.</p>
<p><strong>4. Don’t get too close to the edge. Be aware of crumbling edges</strong></p>
<p>Don’t trust cliff edges and be aware of unstable ground. Cliff edges are naturally eroding and your extra weight doesn’t help. <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/bells-beach-four-people-injured-after-beach-cliff-collapses-near-melbourne/7cba3fa1-6a68-4b33-b6db-1acd1a94b68c">People have died</a> from cliff edges crumbling away while standing on them.</p>
<p><strong>5. No amount of ‘likes’ is worth your life</strong></p>
<p>Consider your motivations for taking selfies and using social media. Studies show spending time in nature is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44097-3">good for our health</a>. But the world looks better when not viewed through a screen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200645/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Cornell receives funding from Meta Platforms, Inc. His research is also supported by a UNSW University Postgraduate Award, as well as project funding from the Royal Life Saving Society - Australia. He is affiliated with Surf Life Saving Australia and Surf Life Saving NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Peden receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and project funding from Meta Platforms Inc, Royal Life Saving Society - Australia and Surf Life Saving Australia. She is affiliated with the Royal Life Saving Society - Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Brander receives funding from Meta Platforms Inc, Surf Life Saving Australia, Surfing NSW, Randwick City Council and Waverley Council. </span></em></p>People have died taking selfies at cliffs, waterfalls and natural pools. We need to try a different approach to reducing the risk.Samuel Cornell, PhD Candidate, UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, School of Population Health, UNSW SydneyAmy Peden, NHMRC Research Fellow, School of Population Health & co-founder UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, UNSW SydneyRob Brander, Professor, UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1628872021-07-06T15:54:07Z2021-07-06T15:54:07ZImplicit bias within Canadian media often means providing excuses for white accused<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407718/original/file-20210622-15-1vml92t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C0%2C3964%2C2245&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Structural racism in media is deeply embedded, and resolving it will require frank discussions.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada celebrates itself as a multicultural and inclusive nation, yet when it comes to media representation, the different portrayals of Muslims and white people disguise a culture of <a href="https://perception.org/research/implicit-bias/">implicit bias</a> and racism.</p>
<p>Take, for example, two high profile crimes in which vehicles were used to kill people.</p>
<p>On Dec. 31, 2020, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-police-andrew-harnett-1.5859221">a police officer in Calgary was killed when struck by a vehicle trying to flee a traffic stop</a>. On June 6, <a href="https://theconversation.com/muslim-family-killed-in-terror-attack-in-london-ontario-islamophobic-violence-surfaces-once-again-in-canada-162400">four members of a Muslim-Canadian family in were killed</a> when they were out for an evening stroll in London, Ont.</p>
<p>In the Calgary incident, those arrested and charged with first-degree murder were two Muslim teenagers. The suspect in the London attack is a 20-year-old white man.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-child-psychiatrist-who-knew-those-killed-in-the-london-terror-attack-offers-advice-on-helping-kids-deal-with-trauma-162761">A child psychiatrist who knew those killed in the London terror attack offers advice on helping kids deal with trauma</a>
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<p>Canadian news outlets captured these two crimes in very different ways.</p>
<p>In the incident about the killing of the Muslim family members, some news outlets illustrated a story about the accused by using a photo of him <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/06/09/suspect-in-attack-on-muslim-family-laughed-during-arrest-report/">from a recent fishing trip</a>. </p>
<p>While the Crown would add a charge of terrorism <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-terrorism-charge-filed-in-the-london-attack-is-the-first-of-its-kind-in-canada-162739">in addition to the murder charges</a>, news outlets became a channel for the accused’s family and friends to <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/christian-terrorist-mowed-down-muslim-180540029.html">send out their positive thoughts about him, praise him and deny his Islamophobia and racism</a>. </p>
<p>Friends spoke about a recent fishing trip and how the accused was “<a href="https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/who-is-nathaniel-veltman-accused-in-alleged-london-hate-killings">happy as ever</a>,” how he had “trouble with the steering of his truck” and was distraught over a death in the family.</p>
<p>Eventually, news outlets cited the accused’s <a href="https://www.iheartradio.ca/610cktb/news/court-documents-portray-london-attack-suspect-as-prone-to-anger-medicated-for-mental-illness-1.15391880">mental illness, anger management and parent’s separation</a>.</p>
<p>In the Calgary incident, no friends or family of the accused were quoted by the media. No one spoke of their character or offered any other personal information about them. Photos used in media stories were <a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/alberta-s-top-court-reserves-decision-on-bail-for-suspect-in-hit-and-run-death-of-calgary-officer-1.5480543">police mug shots</a>. </p>
<h2>Delegating responsibility</h2>
<p>Research has shown that in cases of mass killings where the accused is white, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427818787225">the media often cite mental illnesses as a possible explanation for the crime</a>.</p>
<p>The media’s delegation of responsibility of the crime to mental illness reduces moral panic. It provides peace of mind for readers that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427818787225">“normal” white people would not commit such crimes</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, the sympathetic image of a mentally ill individual becomes an asset for the defence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854818794742">during the trial and sentencing</a>. </p>
<p>Nancy Heitzeg, a professor of sociology and critical studies of race and ethnicity at Saint Catherine University in Minnesota, notes there is a “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10282580.2015.1025630">double standard</a>” when it comes to the white people versus people of colour when they commit the same crime.</p>
<p>When a white individual is committing a crime, she explains, there is always a life story that gives characteristics to the accused. However, when a minority individual is committing the crime, there are no backgrounds, no excuses and no side stories. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/muslim-family-killed-in-terror-attack-in-london-ontario-islamophobic-violence-surfaces-once-again-in-canada-162400">Muslim family killed in terror attack in London, Ontario: Islamophobic violence surfaces once again in Canada</a>
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<p>Journalists are influenced by their own perceptions of race when creating content. They are <a href="https://sophia.stkate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1478&context=msw_papers">embedded within societies that are impacted by racial tensions and misperceptions</a>. This can translate into stories that reinforce stereotyping.</p>
<p>While news outlets should be a neutral source of information, research has indicated that <a href="https://www.crrf-fcrr.ca/en/resources/research-projects/item/23532-racist-discourse-in-canadas-english-print-media-en-gb-1">Canadian media shows implicit biases and racism</a>. In particular, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1748895813476874">articles describe crimes against white victims with significantly more fearful language</a>.</p>
<p>Implicit bias is often in the details left out. <a href="https://www.unlv.edu/news/article/unpacking-how-media-influences-our-views-racism">Structural racism in media is deeply embedded</a>, and resolving it will require frank discussions, diverse workforces and a confrontation of racism’s roots.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162887/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shila Khayambashi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Existing racism and implicit bias in Canadian media downplayed the terrorist attack by a white accused while exaggerating and staying silent on the reasons behind a hit-and-run by Muslim teens.Shila Khayambashi, Ph.D. Candidate, Communications and Culture, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1569472021-03-12T04:03:31Z2021-03-12T04:03:31ZWhat’s a T7 vertebra and what happens when you injure it? 2 experts explain<p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews was injured on Tuesday after slipping and <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/daniel-andrews-in-trauma-centre-intensive-care-after-falling-on-stairs/71776d5f-e9a4-485e-add1-c5ec620b77e7">falling on wet stairs</a> at a holiday home on the Mornington Peninsula. </p>
<p>Reports indicate he broke some ribs and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-12/how-long-will-it-take-for-premier-daniel-andrews-to-recover/13237696">fractured his T7 vertebra</a>, and is now receiving treatment at the Alfred Hospital’s trauma centre in Melbourne.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1369136759150243850"}"></div></p>
<p>Let’s take a look at what an injury to the T7 vertebra actually means.</p>
<h2>The spine</h2>
<p>Injuries to the spine can be particularly debilitating because the spine acts as the central pillar on which we stand. </p>
<p>It also protects some of the vital structures in our bodies such as the nerves, blood vessels and spinal cord. These nerves transport impulses from our brains to the muscles, and feed information back to the brain from our limbs. So certain spinal injuries can potentially be very dangerous if they interfere with these functions.</p>
<p>Though we might not think of the spine as readily as we do heart disease or other conditions as reasons for illness, it represents a considerable burden of disease for the Australian health system.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A diagram of the spine titles 'vertebral column'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389167/original/file-20210311-21-s9g3mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389167/original/file-20210311-21-s9g3mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389167/original/file-20210311-21-s9g3mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389167/original/file-20210311-21-s9g3mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389167/original/file-20210311-21-s9g3mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1261&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389167/original/file-20210311-21-s9g3mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389167/original/file-20210311-21-s9g3mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1261&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The spine is often describe as consisting of five main areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>About <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/chronic-musculoskeletal-conditions/back-problems/contents/what-are-back-problems">four million Australians</a>, or one in six, suffer from back problems. Many of these are related to the bones that make up the spine.</p>
<p>Each of the individual bones in this region are called “vertebra”. Your vertebral column (or spine) is composed of five main areas: the cervical spine (neck), the thoracic spine (where your ribs attach), the lumbar spine, and finally the sacrum and coccyx.</p>
<p>There are seven cervical vertebrae (C1-C7), 12 thoracic vertebrae (T1-T12), and five lumbar vertebrae (L1-L5). The area Andrews has injured, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/10/daniel-andrews-may-require-back-surgery-after-fracturing-spine-in-fall-on-slippery-stairs">thoracic spine</a>, forms a semi-rigid cage due to its attachment to the ribs. These attachments mean this region of the spine is much stiffer and less flexible than the other areas.</p>
<p>The fracture seen in Andrews’ case appears to involve the <a href="https://7news.com.au/politics/daniel-andrews/no-immediate-surgery-plans-for-andrews-c-2328036">seventh thoracic vertebra</a> (T7), which is roughly halfway down the back. As this bone also has a pair of ribs attached, it is not a surprise his reported injuries also include broken ribs.</p>
<h2>Vertebral fractures and the road to recovery</h2>
<p>Fractures (breaks) of the bones in our spine become more likely as we age, and are more common in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.injury.2008.06.040">women</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s001980050222">over 60</a>, whose bones may be weaker as a result of osteoporosis.</p>
<p>In younger patients, spinal fractures are much more likely to be the result of an accident. This is often a <a href="https://scia.org.au/sci-statistics/">car accident</a>, or a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.injury.2008.06.040">high-energy fall</a> such as falling down the stairs. In this group, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1055/s-0033-1337124">males</a> are significantly more likely to be injured.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-emergency-departments-during-covid-19-overall-presentations-down-but-assault-diy-injuries-up-144071">Victorian emergency departments during COVID-19: overall presentations down but assault, DIY injuries up</a>
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<p>In general, a patient with a fractured T7 would experience pain when moving, and have difficulty standing for long periods. Patients with associated rib fractures may sometimes even have pain with breathing (particularly when taking big breaths).</p>
<p>If there’s no associated spinal cord injury or damage to the nerves in the area, a full recovery is likely, but this can take weeks or months. This process often involves rehabilitation with physiotherapists and other health-care providers.</p>
<p>We’re not familiar with the details of Andrews’ case. But his medical team has likely performed a series of scans and assessments to ascertain the full extent of any damage, and to decide on the most appropriate course of treatment.</p>
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<img alt="A man holds his back." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389196/original/file-20210312-22-177zlc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389196/original/file-20210312-22-177zlc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389196/original/file-20210312-22-177zlc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389196/original/file-20210312-22-177zlc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389196/original/file-20210312-22-177zlc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389196/original/file-20210312-22-177zlc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389196/original/file-20210312-22-177zlc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Recovery from a spinal injury can take time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Falls are common</h2>
<p>On average, nearly <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/trends-in-hospitalised-injury-2007-08-to-2016-17/summary">220,000 Australians are hospitalised each year</a> due to falls (that’s more than 600 people a day).</p>
<p>Falls serious enough to take you to hospital are becoming <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/trends-in-hospitalised-injury-2007-08-to-2016-17/summary">more common</a> in Australia. National data suggest hospital presentations due to falls are increasing <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/trends-in-hospitalised-injury-2007-08-to-2016-17/summary">by nearly 2%</a> each year. In some specific groups, such as males over 65, the increase in the rate of falls is even higher (<a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/trends-in-hospitalised-injury-due-to-falls/">3%</a>).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/needless-treatments-spinal-fusion-surgery-for-lower-back-pain-is-costly-and-theres-little-evidence-itll-work-91829">Needless treatments: spinal fusion surgery for lower back pain is costly and there's little evidence it'll work</a>
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<p>In 2016-17, <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/trends-in-hospitalised-injury-2007-08-to-2016-17/summary">41% of hospital admissions</a> for injuries were a result of falls. Falls from, or on, stairs account for <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/trends-in-hospitalised-injury-2007-08-to-2016-17/summary">7% of these</a>.</p>
<p>Andrews has clearly suffered a <a href="https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1369602624161419266/photo/1">serious injury</a>, which can be very painful. We wish him a speedy recovery.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156947/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews this week suffered a fracture to his T7 vertebra. Here’s what that means.Christian Moro, Associate Professor of Science & Medicine, Bond UniversityAllan Stirling, Associate Professor, Clinical Anatomy, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1560292021-02-25T04:52:20Z2021-02-25T04:52:20ZTiger Woods’ car crash injuries explained, according to a trauma surgeon<p>Tiger Woods’ medical team has <a href="https://twitter.com/TigerWoods/status/1364447580520738820/photo/1">released a statement on Twitter</a> to explain the injuries he sustained <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/23/us/tiger-woods-car-accident-intl-spt/index.html">in his car crash</a> earlier this week.</p>
<p>The statement was from the Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, a trauma centre, where golfer Woods was taken for emergency treatment after the <a href="https://www.espn.co.uk/golf/story/_/id/30951717/tiger-woods-hospitalized-vehicle-rolls-crash">single-vehicle accident</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1364738492778090497"}"></div></p>
<p>I’m a practising orthopaedic surgeon specialising in trauma surgery and I lecture nationally and internationally on the orthopaedic treatment of fractures. </p>
<p>Here’s my explanation of some of the technical terms in the statement, and what this might mean for Woods’ recovery.</p>
<h2>What were his injuries?</h2>
<p>It appears from the statement his injuries were confined to his right lower leg. This may appear surprising to many who have seen the footage of the accident and heard that his vehicle rolled over. </p>
<p>However, it is common these days to have people admitted after bad car accidents with only injuries to their lower leg. This is because of seat belts, airbags and vehicle construction. These have done a lot to prevent the previously common facial injuries (from windscreens and steering wheels) and head, chest and abdominal injuries.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/smallpox-seatbelts-and-smoking-3-ways-public-health-has-saved-lives-from-history-to-the-modern-day-128300">Smallpox, seatbelts and smoking: 3 ways public health has saved lives from history to the modern day</a>
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<p>The statement says he had “comminuted open fractures affecting both the upper and lower portions of the tibia and fibula”.</p>
<p>Let me break that down. “<a href="https://medlineplus.gov/ency/imagepages/1096.htm">Comminuted</a>” means the bones had broken into many fragments, the opposite of a “simple” fracture where the bone breaks into two parts. </p>
<p>The “upper and lower portions” suggests he has what is called a “<a href="https://pssjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13037-015-0086-1/figures/13">segmental</a>” fracture, where the bone is broken in two separate locations.</p>
<p>The comminuted and segmental nature of the injury is not unexpected after high-energy injuries like car accidents and doesn’t change the treatment too much.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-we-have-bones-90246">Curious Kids: Why do we have bones?</a>
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<p>People place a lot of importance on how many pieces bones are broken into, but as long as the bones heal, they all end up in one piece regardless of how many pieces there were to start with. </p>
<p>The fact that it was a bad fracture, however, means it might be harder to get it to heal and that it might take longer. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://orthoinfo.aaos.org/en/diseases--conditions/open-fractures/">Open</a>” fractures mean the skin overlying the broken bone was broken. The main concern is that having an open fracture increases the risk of infection. However, given Woods remained in the vehicle (he had to be broken out of it with special equipment), there is unlikely to be any dirt or highly contaminated material involved.</p>
<h2>How did doctors treat his injuries?</h2>
<p>The tibia and fibula are the two bones that link the knee to the ankle, the tibia being the much larger, main bone. His tibia and fibula were “stabilized by inserting a rod into the tibia”. </p>
<p>It is routine to treat fractures like this with a rod inserted inside the bone from top to bottom to line it up. The rod only needs to go into the tibia because the fibular usually follows the tibia into alignment, as the two bones are connected.</p>
<p>The statement also said that trauma to the soft-tissues of the leg required “surgical release of the covering of the muscles to relieve pressure due to swelling”. </p>
<p>This refers to a procedure called a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK556153/">fasciotomy</a> which is performed for actual or impending “<a href="https://orthoinfo.aaos.org/en/diseases--conditions/compartment-syndrome/">compartment syndrome</a>” — a build-up of pressure in the leg.</p>
<p>We do not have information on whether the muscle was damaged as a result of the increased pressure (in which case there could be permanent weakness) or whether the muscle is intact. If the fasciotomy was done early and adequately, it is likely there will be no permanent muscle damage.</p>
<h2>Will he recover?</h2>
<p>The interesting thing about Woods’ injuries is that, while the “open” and “comminuted” fractures of the tibia and fibula sound very bad, if he can avoid the early problem of infection, these injuries on their own do not necessarily mean that he will have any permanent problems. </p>
<p>Once healed, the leg can potentially be just as straight and strong as it was before. Muscles can be strengthened and skin and bones usually heal.</p>
<p>The point of most concern relating to his long-term function is the part of the statement that said: “additional injuries to the bones of the foot and ankle were stabilized with a combination of screws and pins”. </p>
<p>Injuries that involve the joints — the parts where one bone joins another bone — are the ones that commonly lead to long-term problems. This is especially the case in the foot and ankle, as these joints take our whole body weight when walking. And these joints allow us to not only walk normally, but also swing a golf club. </p>
<p>If, for example, he has fractures that involve the ankle joint or any of the foot joints, this can result in permanent loss of flexibility and pain on walking.</p>
<h2>Did Woods get special treatment?</h2>
<p>People may be wondering if Woods got <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC315491/">special treatment, or was even overtreated</a>, which is something that can occur with famous people, and when people seek treatment and have the resources to pay for it. </p>
<p>With trauma though, particularly the type of trauma in this case, the treatment usually follows fairly standard practice. Although some surgeons and hospitals vary in exactly how they treat certain injuries, the management of these lower limb injuries is fairly uniform. So it is unlikely he was treated differently to any other patient who would present to that hospital.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Once his leg fracture heals, his leg can potentially be just as straight and strong as it was before. But his foot and ankle are more of a worry.Ian Harris, Professor of Orthopaedic Surgery, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460332020-09-14T14:34:58Z2020-09-14T14:34:58ZCalifornia wildfires: why a gender-reveal party got the blame, but shouldn’t have<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357738/original/file-20200912-20-1qyw8d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C336%2C2995%2C1396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photos/forest-fire-hose-water-wildfire-3694495/">Skeeze/Pixabay </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the time of writing there are <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/">7,718 fires</a> raging across California, 20 people have lost their lives, and nearly 5,000 buildings have been destroyed. The ignition of one of these fires caught the attention of the press, and the internet, more than others.</p>
<p>On September 5, an explosion of coloured smoke revealed the gender of a Californian couple’s soon to be born child, and simultaneously set light to over 10,000 acres of the El Dorado Ranch Park in Yuaipa.</p>
<p>Gender-reveal parties, relatively unheard of just a few years ago, have now become an important rite of passage for expectant parents in the US. Seen by some as an unhelpful reinforcement of binary gender stereotypes, these parties have long been the source of mockery by the internet. Years of one-upmanship have seen ever more extravagant reveals posted to social media – cake cutting, mass dance performances, balloons dropped from planes, and, increasingly, pyrotechnics.</p>
<p>So, when a gender-reveal party started the El Dorado fire, it was bound to draw attention. <a href="https://www.insider.com/gender-reveal-party-memes-california-fires-consequences-2020-9">Memes and spoof articles</a> soon appeared, and the mainstream media latched on to the story. The idea that the fires were started by human stupidity is one we actually find appealing, and almost comforting. But this narrative hides a very uncomfortable truth.</p>
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<h2>The perfect storm</h2>
<p>California is not on fire because of a single gender-reveal party, of course. The El Dorado fire consumed just 10,000 of the 2.3 million acres presently alight. The west coast is ablaze because of a range of climatic changes. California has been baking in record temperatures for weeks, hitting a record 49°C in <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/06/weather/california-record-temperature/index.html">early September</a>. </p>
<p>The heat has turned the state into a tinderbox. But it was unusually high humidity, thanks to an ebbing tropical storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean, that struck the match, sending plumes of moisture over California. High moisture and high air temperatures both day and night bred a particular type of storm cloud – one that produces very little rain, but huge amounts of thunder and lightning. August 16 and 17 alone saw more than 10,000 lightning strikes, sparking 376 fires.</p>
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<p>California has long been linked with wildfires, but their size, frequency and number is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/09/why-californias-wildfires-are-going-to-get-worse.html">growing</a>. The ten largest fires in the state since records began in 1932 have occurred since 2000, with the two largest being the 2018 Mendocino Complex fire and this year’s LNU Lightning Complex fire. Scientists warn that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fast-moving-california-wildfires-boosted-by-climate-change/">climate change</a>, by ensuring hotter summers, changing humidity levels and more storms, will result in ever more, and ever larger fires in California.</p>
<h2>Why blame the party?</h2>
<p>In many ways, blaming a single human event makes sense. Historically, the majority of fires in California have been started by them – downed power cables, sparks from a tyre blowout, poor choices like barbecues and this year’s fateful gender-reveal party. As these fires become more common, the severity of them no longer serves as a hook, so the press and the internet look for a human act to draw the reader in. An act of individual stupidity, doing something that is already widely mocked, is the perfect narrative.</p>
<p>But blaming one person, one party, one poor decision or one freak accident avoids the necessary reckoning with collective responsibility. It moves the blame to individuals, giving the most powerful perpetrators of global heating – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change">a roomful</a> of chief executives and their corporate empires – a free ride. It also erodes the sense of urgency that’s vital for tackling climate change. </p>
<p>The wildfires in California are being caused ever more frequently by natural causes like lightning. And where fires are caused by human carelessness, it’s the increasingly dry and scorched conditions resulting from climate change that make them so easy to ignite.</p>
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<p>Smokey Bear is a fire safety mascot who popularised the phrase “Only <em>you</em> can prevent forest fires”. He isn’t all wrong. <em>You can</em> help prevent forest fires, through taking better care when walking in the woods. But the “only you” part of the message needs to be addressed. Reducing the number, frequency and intensity of fires in California will take global action, by governments and corporations, to rapidly scale down the greenhouse gas emissions that are accelerating climate change.</p>
<p>Blaming the party is easier. When comprehending the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/gallery/2020/sep/07/california-wildfires-in-pictures">apocalyptic scenes</a> playing out in the US, it is far more comforting to imagine that they are the fault of a single stupid person, than a sign of worse to come.</p>
<p><em>Imagining Apocalyptic Politics in the Anthropocene, a new book by Doug Specht and Earl Harper will be published by Routledge in 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Doug Specht does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s comforting to blame California’s wildfires on human stupidity. But this hides a very uncomfortable truth.Doug Specht, Senior Lecturer in Media and Communications, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1225002019-08-29T09:42:16Z2019-08-29T09:42:16ZWhat’s the most dangerous day of the year? Watch out on these ones<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290084/original/file-20190829-106524-ijdehw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/5oyFrBF33Q4">Edu Lauton/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Society has become increasingly preoccupied <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/risk-society">with risk</a>. So it’s unsurprising that as social scientists, we are constantly being asked to predict where harm is most likely to strike. In terms of crime and disorder – our speciality – we know a small number of places and people suffer the majority of victimisation. Using this knowledge, we know that anti-social behaviour peaks around Halloween and that violence is more common in the summer, especially on unusually warm days.</p>
<p>But when asked to identify the most dangerous day of the year, we realised this research hadn’t been done. Perhaps the reason for this is the wide variety of risk that creates unnatural or accidental death – from workplace incidents, to road accidents and crime. But this is an important question, as avoiding such risk can benefit our sense of well-being and also the economy. </p>
<p>Governments and academics have previously estimated the cost surrounding death and injury, using such criteria as health costs (including relatives who suffer loss), lost output (such as wages) and service charges (such as ambulance; police costs; damage to property; and insurance administration). These calculations show homicide is the most costly incident resulting in death, estimated at <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-economic-and-social-costs-of-crime">£3.2m</a> per case, while the average cost per suicide is <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/32311/1/Knapp_et_al__MHPP_The_Economic_Case.pdf">£1.7m</a>.</p>
<p>And although overall road accidents have been decreasing, pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists have become more <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cycle-safety-laws-new-kim-briggs-death-warning-against-witch-hunt-a7960291.html">vulnerable</a>. They generate an average cost of <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/744077/reported-road-casualties-annual-report-2017.pdf?_ga=2.239767939.1051173890.1566917004-193926697.1566917004">£2,130,922</a> per fatal accident.</p>
<p>Across industry, construction and agriculture include the most perilous occupations, with premature deaths associated with falls from height; being struck by moving objects (including machinery and vehicles); and being trapped by something collapsing or overturning. Such incidents cost an estimated <a href="http://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/pdf/cost-to-britain.pdf">£1.6m</a> per fatal injury.</p>
<h2>Dangerous days</h2>
<p>To better understand non-natural deaths, we analysed 93,955 death registrations recorded by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) across England and Wales between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2015. We looked at each underlying cause of death to determine who had died due to “external causes of morbidity and mortality”. </p>
<p>Of these, 63% were men and 37% women, with an average age of 61 years. The two most common categories included falls and other accidental injury (57%), as well as intentional self-harm (26%). The remaining significant categories included: transport accidents (8%); complications surrounding care (5%), and assault (4%). </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290105/original/file-20190829-106498-fn4cuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290105/original/file-20190829-106498-fn4cuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290105/original/file-20190829-106498-fn4cuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290105/original/file-20190829-106498-fn4cuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290105/original/file-20190829-106498-fn4cuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290105/original/file-20190829-106498-fn4cuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290105/original/file-20190829-106498-fn4cuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Researchers looked at each underlying cause of death to determine who had died due to</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ONS</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>While unnatural deaths were consistently spread across the year, they did peak in December, when 8,416 died, and January (8,467). Transport accidents and assaults appeared to be more common on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, while deaths from intentional self-harm more commonly occurred on a Monday.</p>
<p>There were some further trends, specifically around gender and age. The average age for men to die from external causes was 55, while the average age for women was 70 years. This means men were more likely to die from unnatural causes prior to pensionable age, and women afterwards. </p>
<p>Those aged less than 65 years were also significantly more likely to die from transport accidents, intentional self-harm and assault, than those over 65 years. The analysis also found that men were significantly more likely to die from such incidents than women.</p>
<h2>When to watch out</h2>
<p>So how can this analysis reduce our risk of unnatural death? Is there a day we should stay at home and avoid a particular activity? </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the 1,826 days across our five-year sample failed to highlight a “most dangerous day”. The most fatalities for each year occurred on Saturday January 1, 2011 (77 deaths); Sunday January 1, 2012 (87); Sunday January 27, 2013 (84); Monday June 9, 2014 (81); and Tuesday March 3, 2015 (90). </p>
<p>But we did find that dangerous days were 2.2 times more likely to occur in winter than spring, and 1.3 times more likely to occur on the weekend in comparison to a weekday. Also, we found men are significantly more likely to die before the age of 65 from incidents such as traffic accidents, self-harm and assaults, when compared with women.</p>
<p>So you may be pleased to know that New Year’s day falls on a Wednesday this year. But if you are a man under 65 years of age, be particularly careful when crossing the road.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The data in this article was sourced from the Office of National Statistics, Death Registrations in England and Wales, 1993-2016: Secure Access (2017), <a href="http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-8200-2">http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-8200-2</a>.</span></em></p>When asked to identify the most dangerous day of the year, we realised this research hadn’t been done.Nathan Birdsall, Research Associate in Policing, University of Central LancashireStuart Kirby, Professor of Policing and Criminal Investigation, University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/912372018-02-14T19:08:33Z2018-02-14T19:08:33ZWithout mandatory safety standards, indoor trampoline parks are an accident waiting to happen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206093/original/file-20180213-58327-aewtkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Half of injuries at trampoline parks are among children aged ten to 14 years. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/hocolibrary/36682860954/in/photolist-XTxfxU-XTxeYY-YA2B87-ac7FS7-4Wfwdz-Uynx49-UynwX7-9zJ53z-ac4QRP-9zHZbg-QGtXqg-PsXSAF-QGtZ4M-PsY2Vx-Qtr8Tb-QDf8jG-ew4CnZ-QtqXjW-QDeV37-ouUdQU-PqgBdQ-QDf7YS-QDeVBJ-Xn8SFb-GD1WG-bVUWAY-oQqGdj-DKXjxq-ew7wQ1-5Af6fD-izyuxu-fuRSxx-ew7was-jHeWLS-qgXkc9-dfkKox-bDH7tS-21QXpdy-4WCscQ-ZNnBoL-ZNnCzd-DKXhrb-ew4o9v-ew4BUk-ew4ooP-DKXgky-ew4nXe-5YRYVV-ew4ofg-ew4oBg">Howard County Library</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Parents are always on the lookout for ways to entertain their kids, whether it’s for birthday parties, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/parenting/school-holidays-are-not-designed-for-modern-parents-this-needs-to-change-20170627-gwzny5.html">school holidays</a>, or a way to escape the house on a rainy weekend. We also like to encourage physical activity, to ward off the <a href="https://theconversation.com/let-children-move-around-stand-or-walk-in-the-classroom-youll-see-the-difference-44495">obesity risks</a> from too much couch time and junk food. </p>
<p>Indoor trampoline parks have rapidly become a popular solution. The <a href="https://www.skyzone.com.au/">first park</a> opened in 2012 and there are now around 80 across the country.</p>
<p>Attendance has soared, and so too has the number of injuries, as our research – published today in the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1753-6405">Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health</a> – shows. Some injuries are minor but others have resulted in permanent disability.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prevent-injury-from-sport-and-exercise-68914">How to prevent injury from sport and exercise</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While some indoor trampoline parks operate to a high safety standard, others don’t, and there’s nothing compelling them to lift their game. Voluntary Australian safety standards are currently in draft form and under review, but to make a real difference to kids’ safety these standards must be mandatory. </p>
<h2>Safety risks</h2>
<p>Emergency departments across Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia saw almost 500 injures from indoor trampoline parks between 2012 and 2016. And that’s an underestimate; our research used data from the state’s injury surveillance databases, missing those treated in private hospitals or by their GP. </p>
<p>Dislocations, sprains and strains were most common, followed by fractures. Some 15% of children presenting to hospital were admitted due the serious nature of their injuries. </p>
<p>More than half of all injuries were in children aged 10 to 14 years, with girls just as likely to be injured as boys. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206098/original/file-20180213-170650-1t5m7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206098/original/file-20180213-170650-1t5m7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206098/original/file-20180213-170650-1t5m7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206098/original/file-20180213-170650-1t5m7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206098/original/file-20180213-170650-1t5m7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206098/original/file-20180213-170650-1t5m7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206098/original/file-20180213-170650-1t5m7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There are no mandatory safety standards for foam pits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nanpalmero/14811629014/in/photolist-oyRth3-ohyHLE-pX9gor-fe4AC7-zLbD3-c1HLFq-asbqMQ-ohyFTb-oz4HpZ-c1D5Zf-ohz8fS-87S2EG-oyRtyW-ohzBvi-87S2eb-dst1t1-87FECA-nj8mZq-duqSrJ-e3YUA9-87FFH3-cEGwqG-6HViX-ecKBPr-ohyLC1-aujRSD-LaEx6-cf73Vu-87HwC-ohz52t-c5K9cy-8Y26oE-9zZPr1-a8Yjns-8gp1tU-6HVd8-87FDS9-87S4HL-6HVdT-6HVii-jhgM5K-NP66Jh-62tVor-dXsPFT-8LXwv-9Tuc6C-un18w3-dBqAvN-cf74eQ-oz4Lsc">Nan Palmero</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The biggest problem was when multiple users were on one trampoline, attempting to do somersaults or flips, or landing awkwardly. </p>
<p>Another key problem is when users jump into the foam landing pit, which is not mandated to ensure sufficient depth, padding and impact reduction. It would be possible to land on a concrete block on your head, for example. </p>
<p>Trampoline park operators ask entrants to sign a <a href="http://www.flipoutsa.com.au/pdf/Flipout%20Waiver%20Document%202017.pdf">risk warning and waiver</a>, accepting the “risk of personal injury and death”, prior to entry. While this risk might be low, in rare cases users have sustained permanent and <a href="http://www.kidspot.com.au/parenting/real-life/in-the-news/customers-sue-trampoline-franchise-flip-out-after-devastating-injuries/news-story/a55485b521e051177b7bfed97a4a5ad0">lifelong disability</a>. The case of one user sustaining <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/paralysis-and-broken-necks-pitfalls-of-38m-flip-out-trampoline-empire-as-civil-suits-loom/news-story/3a4ceb610570252d69419319319ca89b">spinal cord damage</a> resulting in lifelong quadriplegia, for example, is now <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/australian-and-uk-customers-file-lawsuits-against-38m-flip-out-trampoline-empire-over-injuries/news-story/81b44869213657247d942e35b8109c1b">before the courts</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-traumatic-brain-injury-75546">Explainer: what is traumatic brain injury?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This trend has been also seen internationally, where a previously fit and healthy 30-year-old man attempted a flip and landed awkwardly in a foam pit. The pit was only half the recommended depth, and the injury <a href="http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/maureen-kerley-pushes-for-trampoline-park-regulations-following-2012-death-of-son-at-phoenixs-skypark-6663641">cost the man his life</a>. </p>
<h2>We need mandatory standards</h2>
<p>Entrepreneurs have cashed in on the rapid growth of trampoline park venues across Australia, with one <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/entrepreneur/trampoline-fad-launchpad-for-32m-business-20150119-12t51f.html">generating</a> A$32 million of revenue in the first two years.</p>
<p>The problem is that there is currently <a href="https://www.ausleisure.com.au/news/international-trampoline-parks-conference-raises-bar-for-industry/">no Australian standard</a> for indoor trampoline parks – voluntary or mandatory. That means anyone can set up a profitable park by importing cheap trampolines, squeezing as many as they can into a facility, and scrimping on daily safety checks and maintenance. </p>
<p>Regulators have drafted a voluntary set of safety standards – minimum safety thresholds – to reduce the risk of serious traumatic injuries at indoor trampoline parks. These are currently under review, pending publication later this year. But these are voluntary; park operators can choose to follow them or not. </p>
<p>Australian standards for indoor trampoline parks would ensure operators are consistently setting up and running safe and well-maintained venues. Recommendations to <a href="https://www.ausleisure.com.au/news/trampoline-association-to-undertake-facilities-safety-check">make these venues safer</a> include: </p>
<ul>
<li>ensuring that surrounding landing surfaces have adequate, appropriately placed protective padding in good condition<br></li>
<li>ensuing that damaged or worn equipment is replaced</li>
<li>improving the safety of those who jump into foam pits, by specifying a minimum pit depth and using thick foam blocks on concrete floors to absorb the shock or, preferably, a second trampoline </li>
<li>including a “failsafe” mechanism such as nets beneath trampoline mats, or second trampolines </li>
<li>daily pre-opening maintenance and safety checks with appropriate governance. </li>
</ul>
<p>Until park operators are mandated to adhere to safety standards, patrons have limited legal recourse in cases where trampoline parks do not comply. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206100/original/file-20180213-170643-1oxzcbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206100/original/file-20180213-170643-1oxzcbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206100/original/file-20180213-170643-1oxzcbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206100/original/file-20180213-170643-1oxzcbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206100/original/file-20180213-170643-1oxzcbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206100/original/file-20180213-170643-1oxzcbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206100/original/file-20180213-170643-1oxzcbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some indoor trampoline parks are better than others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/145934158@N03/30926847614/in/photolist-P7UbjA-7ArkfG-87PuLL-4Pw2k6-pZvaC-87zt2-8SoP7j-6HVgv-7gDQB-BW3dLj-Bwdk2y-PPUPD7-EyNxvS-sfLLn9-dahnzW-87CA7n-dahnhX-87Hu2-87zBL-JS6xj-mH5sd-pZvaM-2H6H3L-NPngGT-PSDdgp-NLyhA3-NPndBz-PSDgxe-pMsNMw-tGzepY-6LFufp-uDPtkc-un912g-umZRay-un8Y3B-uD9rLj-un17yG-uDPtea-tGKcTF-uDAhgP-umZQrE-uBgwPh-un8Ymx-uDPwdB-uDAgXH-uDPw9i-tGKeeB-un91me-AsLuNf-rM4a1y">Pictures I Like</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So what can you do?</p>
<p>Well, you can use your own or a friend’s outdoor trampoline. While there are, of course, risks for children jumping on backyard trampolines, <a href="https://infostore.saiglobal.com/store/PreviewDoc.aspx?saleItemID=2825165">Australian standards</a> apply to the import, enclosure systems, structural integrity, and entrapment risks to protect children falling off or being injured on elevated trampolines. The ACCC provides a <a href="http://www.productsafety.gov.au/trampolinesafety">good safety checklist</a> for choosing a backyard trampoline.</p>
<p>If you are going to send your kids to an indoor trampoline park, opt for one with <a href="http://www.atpa.org.au/accredited-members/">Australian Trampoline Park Association accreditation</a>. This is a <a href="http://www.atpa.org.au/new-member-info">code of practice</a> to which ATPA members must adhere, and which covers around one-third of parks. While we wait for mandatory regulation, indoor trampoline park users can vote with their feet and choose to jump at centres that take safety seriously. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-hour-screen-limit-for-kids-is-virtually-impossible-to-enforce-36656">Two-hour screen limit for kids is virtually impossible to enforce</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91237/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Nicole Sharwood is affiliated with Standards Australia as the Epidemiologist on CS005 - Committee for Playground Safety Standards. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor David Eager is affiliated with Engineers Australia and Standards Australia. He represents Engineers Australia and is the Chairperson on the Australian Standards Committee SF-051 Trampoline Park Facilities. For more than a decade he represented Engineers Australia and was the Chairperson on the Australian Standards Committee CS-100 Domestic Trampolines.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Adams is on the NSW Council of Kidsafe. </span></em></p>While some indoor trampoline parks operate to a high safety standard, others don’t, and there’s nothing compelling them to lift their game.Lisa Nicole Sharwood, Injury epidemiologist, University of SydneyDavid Eager, Professor of Risk Management and Injury Prevention and Assistant Student Ombud, University of Technology SydneySusan Adams, Paediatric Surgeon and Conjoint Lecturer in the School of Women's & Children's Health, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/830222017-09-18T00:09:37Z2017-09-18T00:09:37ZChildren and sleep: How much do they really need?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186227/original/file-20170915-8125-1nrv7pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C110%2C992%2C541&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Research shows that night waking in infancy is associated with behavioural control challenges at three and four years of age.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>How much sleep, and what type of sleep, do our children need to thrive? </p>
<p>In parenting, there aren’t often straightforward answers, and sleep tends to be contentious. There are questions about whether we are <a href="https://doi.org/10.5665/sleep.2538">overstating children’s sleep problems</a>. Yet we all know from experience how much better we feel, and how much more ready we are to take on the day, when we have had an adequate amount of good quality sleep. </p>
<p>I was one of a panel of experts at the American Academy of Sleep Medicine to review over 800 academic papers examining relationships between children’s sleep duration and outcomes. Our findings suggested <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5664/jcsm.6288">optimal sleep durations to promote children’s health</a>. These are the optimal hours (including naps) that children should sleep in every 24-hour cycle.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><iframe id="MjEod" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MjEod/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>And yet these types of sleep recommendations are still controversial. Many of us have friends or acquaintances who say that they can function perfectly on four hours of sleep, when it is recommended that adults get seven to nine hours per night. </p>
<h2>Optimal sleep hours: The science</h2>
<p>We look for science to support our recommendations. Yet we cannot deprive young children of sleep for prolonged periods to see whether they have more problems than those sleeping the recommended amounts. </p>
<p>Some experiments have been conducted with teenagers when they have agreed to short periods of sleep deprivation followed by regular sleep durations. In one example, teenagers who got inadequate sleep time had <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.12125">worse moods and more difficulty controlling negative emotions</a>. </p>
<p>Those findings are important because children and adolescents need to learn how to regulate their attention and manage their negative emotions and behaviour. Being able to self-regulate can <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15402002.2015.1065410">enhance school adjustment and achievement</a>. </p>
<p>With younger children, our studies have had to rely on examining relationships between their sleep duration and quality of their sleep and negative health outcomes. For example, when researchers have followed the same children over time, behavioural sleep problems in infancy have been associated with greater difficulty regulating emotions at two to three years of age. </p>
<p>Persistent sleep problems also predicted increased difficulty for the same children, followed at two to three years of age, to control their negative emotions from birth to six or seven years and for <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15402002.2015.1065410">eight- to nine-year-old children to focus their attention</a>.</p>
<h2>Optimal sleep quality: The science</h2>
<p>Not only has the duration of children’s sleep been demonstrated to be important but also the quality of their sleep. Poor sleep quality involves problems with starting and maintaining sleep. It also involves low satisfaction with sleep and feelings of being rested. It has been linked to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.smrv.2009.10.004">poorer school performance</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186260/original/file-20170916-8121-1ncxtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186260/original/file-20170916-8121-1ncxtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186260/original/file-20170916-8121-1ncxtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186260/original/file-20170916-8121-1ncxtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186260/original/file-20170916-8121-1ncxtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186260/original/file-20170916-8121-1ncxtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186260/original/file-20170916-8121-1ncxtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evidence has consistently pointed to the importance of parents’ behaviours in setting consistent sleep schedules.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Kindergarten children with poor sleep quality (those who take a long time to fall asleep and who wake in the night) demonstrated more aggressive behaviour and were <a href="http://dx.doi.org/%2010.1016/j.jpsychires.2009.08.012">represented more negatively by their parents</a>. </p>
<p>Infants’ night waking was associated with more difficulties regulating attention and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/87565641.2014.973498">difficulty with behavioural control</a> at three and four years of age.</p>
<h2>From diabetes to self-harm</h2>
<p>The Consensus Statement of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine suggested that children need enough sleep on a regular basis to promote optimal health. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186231/original/file-20170915-8121-1ot84q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186231/original/file-20170915-8121-1ot84q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186231/original/file-20170915-8121-1ot84q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186231/original/file-20170915-8121-1ot84q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186231/original/file-20170915-8121-1ot84q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186231/original/file-20170915-8121-1ot84q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186231/original/file-20170915-8121-1ot84q7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Growing rates of obesity in children are linked to many lifestyle factors, including diet, physical activity and sleep.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The expert panel linked inadequate sleep duration to children’s attention and learning problems and to increased risk for accidents, injuries, hypertension, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2014.157">obesity</a>, diabetes and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10964-014-0137-4">depression</a>.</p>
<p>Insufficient sleep in teenagers has also been related to increased risk of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5664/jcsm.6288">self-harm, suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts</a>.</p>
<h2>Parent behaviours</h2>
<p>Children’s self-regulation skills can be developed through self-soothing to sleep at settling time and back to sleep after any night waking. Evidence has consistently pointed to the importance of parents’ behaviours not only in assisting children to achieve adequate sleep duration but also good sleep quality. </p>
<p>Parents can introduce <a href="http://www.pediatrics.org/cgi/doi/10.1542/peds.2013-1906"></a><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.2013-1906">techniques such as sleep routines</a> and consistent sleep schedules that promote healthy sleep. They can also monitor children to ensure that bedtime <a href="http://globalnews.ca/news/3719531/how-much-sleep-do-children-lose-when-devices-are-used-before-bedtime/">is actually lights out without electronic devices</a> in their room.</p>
<p>In summary, there are recommended hours of sleep that are associated with better outcomes for children at all ages and stages of development. High sleep quality is also linked to children’s abilities to control their negative behaviour and focus their attention — both important skills for success at school and in social interactions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83022/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Hall receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Poor sleep in infants and children has been linked to an array of problems, from aggression to poor school performance to diabetes, obesity and suicide. Our expert reviews the science.Wendy Hall, Professor, Associate Director Graduate Programs, UBC School of Nursing, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/835692017-09-10T19:44:08Z2017-09-10T19:44:08ZMore cyclists are ending up in hospital with serious injuries, so we need to act now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185200/original/file-20170908-9945-14aeavv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Serious injury rates are rising in cyclists, and are associated with significant disability and economic costs. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/573221677?src=ZUl0Yi1m8YYIQIdspWj5Gg-1-0&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cyclists are suffering more serious injuries in road crashes than ever before, leading to significant disability, our <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2017/207/6/road-safety-serious-injuries-remain-major-unsolved-problem">new study</a> shows.</p>
<p>But what is less clear is what’s behind these injuries, which are occurring as the number of people who died in road traffic crashes has fallen.</p>
<p>In our study published today in the <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2017/207/6/road-safety-serious-injuries-remain-major-unsolved-problem">Medical Journal of Australia</a>, we investigated deaths and serious injuries after traffic crashes in Victoria from 2007 to 2015.</p>
<p>We looked at whether deaths and serious injury rates for all road users changed over time. We also looked at the disability and economic costs of these injuries.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-take-to-their-bikes-when-we-make-it-safer-and-easier-for-them-82251">People take to their bikes when we make it safer and easier for them</a>
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<p>The total number of deaths from road traffic crashes fell over the study period. But rates of serious road traffic injuries did not.</p>
<p>There were 10,092 road traffic deaths and serious injuries over the course of our study. This led to over 77,000 disability-adjusted life years (a measure of overall disability burden, expressed as the number of years lost to disability or early death). </p>
<p>The estimated health costs associated with these road traffic injuries (known as “health loss” costs) was more than A$14 billion.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The rates of crashes resulting in serious injury in cyclists rose 8% a year.</span>
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<p>Most concerning was the rise in serious injury rates in cyclists, which increased 8% a year. In fact, the absolute number of cases more than doubled over the nine-year study period. </p>
<p>These injuries are often severe, including head injuries, spine injuries and fractures of the pelvis and limbs. They often lead to significant disability.</p>
<p>Over the course of our study, a rise in such serious injuries led to a 56% increase in disability-adjusted life years; health costs for cyclists were more than A$700 million.</p>
<h2>Why are cyclists’ serious injuries rising?</h2>
<p>However, it is not clear what’s driving these increases in serious injuries.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457516302950">previous study</a>, we interviewed cyclists admitted to hospital after a crash. Of the crashes that occurred on the road, 52% involved another road user, most commonly a motor vehicle.</p>
<p>A total of 22% of all on-road crashes also occurred while cyclists were riding in a marked bicycle lane, demonstrating they are not sufficient to completely protect cyclists. While these on-road bicycle lanes provide dedicated space for cyclists, riders remain close to motorists, and people in parked cars opening doors. </p>
<p>A total of 48% of on-road crashes only involved a single cyclist. While we need more research to better understand the single cyclist-only crashes, <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1343699">researchers have previously found</a> the condition of road surfaces, distraction, mechanical issues and speed are possible factors.</p>
<h2>Are more people cycling?</h2>
<p>One of the limitations of our study was that we couldn’t adjust for the amount of time or distance cyclists travel each year. Unfortunately, we have very limited data on this in Australia. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bicyclecouncil.com.au/publication/national-cycling-participation-survey-2017">National Cycling Participation Survey</a> is a telephone survey that asks how many times people cycled in the past week, month or year. The 2017 results showed the proportion of people who had cycled in the past month declined from 27% in 2011 to 22% in 2017. </p>
<p>While cycling participation overall may have declined, there may be an increase in the overall time spent riding, or the number of cyclists riding on the road, compared to on bicycle paths, for example.</p>
<h2>So, what does this mean for cyclists?</h2>
<p>So, is the message from our study, “don’t cycle”? No, not at all. The health and economic benefits of cycling are well established. A <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j1456">recent UK study</a> demonstrated that cycling to work was associated with a 41% lower risk of early death compared to commuting by car or public transport.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/better-health-is-only-a-short-bike-ride-away-3613">Better health is only a short bike ride away</a>
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<p>And while cycling-related injury rates are on the rise, they made up only 11% of serious road traffic injuries.</p>
<p>It is clear we need greater investment in cyclist safety. We know being concerned about safety is one of the <a href="https://www.heartfoundation.org.au/images/uploads/publications/Cycling-Survey-2011-Riding-a-Bike-for-Transport.pdf">biggest barriers</a> to people cycling. </p>
<p>Interactions with motor vehicles – not just collisions, but also being in the presence of and close proximity to motor vehicles – and the absence of appropriate cycling infrastructure are some of the most common barriers people mention.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-bicycles-and-the-fatal-myth-of-equal-reciprocity-81034">Cars, bicycles and the fatal myth of equal reciprocity</a>
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<p>Dedicated bike lanes that are separated from traffic are <a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/19/5/303">an effective way</a> to reduce serious injury. </p>
<p>While we need to invest more in cycling-specific infrastructure (like bike lanes and bike paths) it is often not feasible to have this across an entire road network. So, we need a multi-faceted approach to improving safety for cyclists. </p>
<p>Reducing the speed limit in residential streets to 30km/h has been proposed as a way to improve safety for vulnerable road users, and a <a href="https://www.yarracity.vic.gov.au/news/2017/09/05/yarra-to-introduce-30kmh-speed-trial">trial</a> has recently been announced in inner Melbourne. </p>
<p>We also need to improve the culture around cyclists as legitimate road users, through changes in legislation, education and training for all road users.</p>
<p>Given the rising injury rates in cyclists, we need government and road safety organisations to act now to provide a safer environment for cyclists.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Beck receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. The Victorian State Trauma Registry is funded by the Department of Health and Human Services, the state Government of Victoria and the Transport Accident Commission.</span></em></p>More cyclists are suffering from serious injuries than ever before. Here’s what we can do to provide a safer environment.Ben Beck, Research fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/739542017-03-16T19:17:15Z2017-03-16T19:17:15ZThere’s no need to lock older people into nursing homes ‘for their own safety’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159866/original/image-20170307-14966-q795ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Allowing nursing home residents to come and go as they wish may not be so dangerous after all.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/300626660?src=5Rw0qZ805RKmcM8l33Ybxg-4-19&size=huge_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Older people in nursing homes or aged care facilities are often locked up “for their own safety”. But our review shows there’s <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525861017300385">little justification</a> in most cases for this unfair and unreasonable practice.</p>
<p>In most cases, the chance of older people harming themselves is minimal, so there is no justification for denying them the right to move freely. What can families, facility managers and governments do to give older people back that right?</p>
<h2>Wanderers, absconders and elopers</h2>
<p>We rationalise locking nursing home doors by arguing that residents are old and frail, don’t know what they are doing, and will otherwise get lost and harm themselves. So, walking out of a nursing home unaccompanied and without telling caregivers is seen as a high-risk activity to be prevented at all costs. </p>
<p>Restraining methods include installing <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9566.2009.01221.x/full">alarmed doors</a>, using <a href="https://www.alz.org/national/documents/Fallsrestraints_litereview_II.pdf">physical restraints</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.fightdementia.org.au/files/NATIONAL/documents/Alzheimers-Australia-Numbered-Publication-38.pdf">pharmaceutical</a> and <a href="http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/15597998">non-pharmaceutical</a> interventions.</p>
<p>Residents who try to leave unaccompanied and without telling anyone are called “wanderers”, “absconders” or “elopers”. And if people wander, abscond or elope, this counts as an “unexplained absence”.</p>
<p>Unexplained absences happen more often than we realise, with <a href="http://www.assistedlivingconsult.com/issues/02-05/ALC02-05_Elopement.pdf">11%</a> to <a href="http://www.gnjournal.com/article/S0197-4572(13)00125-0/fulltext">31%</a> of US residents living in assisted living or nursing homes reported missing at some time. There is no published data on the proportion of unexplained absences in Australia.</p>
<p>While these absences might be common, our review suggests they might at best <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525861017300385">not be as dangerous</a> as people think, or at worst, we just don’t have the evidence to tell us how dangerous they are.</p>
<p>Our analysis of nine studies showed most people left by foot, and were found in green vegetation and waterways within 1.6km of the place where they were last seen.</p>
<p>A total of 61 people were injured for every 1000 people with an unexplained absence. And 82 people died for every 1000 people leaving, with extreme temperatures the most common cause of death.</p>
<p>While these figures might sound high, they are likely an overestimate, as unexplained absences from nursing homes were lumped in with those from people living at home in the community.</p>
<p>Also, all of the studies looked at people with dementia, a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10918338">risk factor</a> for unexplained absence, which may have further overestimated the proportion of people who die after an unexplained absence. This means the high number of deaths doesn’t represent all nursing home residents, who have different and varying levels of cognitive and physical impairment.</p>
<h2>Aren’t there really good reasons for protecting vulnerable people?</h2>
<p>There are some <a href="http://www.assistedlivingconsult.com/issues/02-05/ALC02-05_Elopement.pdf">legitimate reasons</a> to confine a very small number of older people in nursing homes, such as those with severe behavioural issues due to mental health problems, who maybe disorientated and delusional. Some residents also feel more secure if doors are locked. </p>
<p>Once outside, some residents, especially those with cognitive and physical impairments, could enter unsafe areas and be harmed.</p>
<p>So, it’s no wonder the issue of “to lock or not” poses challenges for the care provider when trying to balance safety with independence. Another factor is that support staff might need to help residents get out and about, placing time pressures on their already tight schedules.</p>
<p>Nursing homes might not also want to, or be unable to, carry the cost of providing care that supports residents leaving when they want to.</p>
<h2>Balancing risks with benefits</h2>
<p>Which is worse, the psychological impact of being locked in versus the physical risk of leaving? Given we know very little about how many residents die or are injured from an “unexplained absence”, how can we be sure the risk is greater outside the facility?</p>
<p>How much of our concern for safety is for the resident, how much is for the family members and caregivers, and how much of it is for the staff and owners of nursing homes?</p>
<p>People who have family members in a nursing home should be asking whether locking up a person in the final stage of their life is really what is best for them. Family members should be encouraging the nursing home to support their family member to have independence, autonomy and control over their life.</p>
<p>The aged care sector also needs to challenge the ingrained belief its role is to keep residents safe and free from harm. </p>
<p>Nursing homes’ fear of losing their reputation, accreditation and receiving sanctions is real, and so it’s not surprising physical safety takes precedent over freedom of movement. </p>
<p>While nursing home providers are rewarded for running a safe facility, a way forward should be to reward them for how they support residents to be independent.</p>
<h2>A growing concern</h2>
<p>The issue of locking up nursing home residents will become <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/153331750401900602">more acute</a> as the population ages. And living in an aged care facility may become inevitable for many elderly people, especially for those with progressive <a href="http://www.beingblocked.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Characteristics-and-outcomes-of-dementia-residents-in-an-assisted-living-facility.pdf">functional and cognitive diseases</a> such as dementia.</p>
<p>But a nursing home is not a place of incarceration, and for most, it’s people’s final home. We should be less fearful of autonomy and independence. After all, people living in their own home in the community happily practice autonomy every day, even if it brings with it risk.</p>
<p>We worry so much about what can go wrong, we rarely stop to consider how often it turns out OK.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Ibrahim receives funding from the Commonwealth and State of Victoria for research investigating premature deaths in Residential Aged Care Services.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marta Woolford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Older people in nursing homes or aged care facilities are often locked up “for their own safety”, which new research says isn’t usually needed.Marta Woolford, PhD Candidate and Research Officer at the Department of Forensic Medicine, Monash UniversityJoseph Ibrahim, Professor, Health Law and Ageing Research Unit, Department of Forensic Medicine, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/677012016-10-26T09:15:05Z2016-10-26T09:15:05ZDeaths at Dreamworld theme park could lead to safety changes for amusement rides<p>Investigations are under way following the tragic accident at the <a href="https://www.dreamworld.com.au/">Dreamworld</a> theme park on the Gold Coast on Tuesday that <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/large-investigation-into-dreamworld/news-story/a2e6337e39e0f6e2604b17d3f95c64da">left four people dead</a>.</p>
<p>Queensland Police <a href="http://mypolice.qld.gov.au/blog/2016/10/26/update-2-critical-incident-death-investigation-coomera-gold-coast-2/">say initial investigations show</a> that six people were on board one of the rafts on the Thunder River Rapids ride when it “impacted” with another raft. This caused the raft to upturn.</p>
<p>Luke Dorsett, 35, and his sister Kate Goodchild, 32, Dorsett’s partner, Roozi Araghi, 38, and Cindy Low, 42, from New Zealand, died at the scene.</p>
<p>A 10-year-old boy and a 12-year-old girl escaped uninjured in what one police officer described as a “<a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/10/26/dreamworld-tragedy-victims-identified-major-investigation-underway">miracle</a>”.</p>
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<p>There will be a coronial investigation into the four tragic deaths. The coroner has wide powers of investigation and can request additional reports, statements or information about the death.</p>
<p>Additional information may be obtained from investigators, police, doctors, engineers, workplace health and safety inspectors, mining inspectors, air safety officers, electrical inspectors or other witnesses.</p>
<p>Once the coroner has completed these enquiries, he will consider whether to hold <a href="http://www.courts.qld.gov.au/courts/coroners-court/common-questions/inquests">an inquest</a> into the deaths. The coroner will consult with the family about this and the families can also request the coroner to hold an inquest.</p>
<h2>Safe rides</h2>
<p>That the deaths occurred at a place designed for fun and amusement makes it all the more tragic. But statistically, amusements rides are very safe. </p>
<p>Figures <a href="http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/r2p2.pdf">from the Health Safety Executive</a> in the UK confirm that there is one death in 834,000,000 rides.</p>
<p>This is very small when compared with deaths from aircraft travel, where the HSE reports there is one death for each 125,000,000 passenger journeys, or scuba diving where there is one death for every 200,000 dives.</p>
<p>In Australia amusement rides and devices are controlled by the Work Health and Safety Legislation. </p>
<p>The rules vary between jurisdictions, but have their origins in the old Machinery Acts, as amusement rides are for all intents and purposes potentially hazardous pieces of machinery to which the general public is exposed.</p>
<p>Worksafe Australia <a href="http://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/sites/swa/about/publications/pages/guidance-amusement-devices">defines</a> an <a href="http://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/sites/swa/about/publications/pages/guidance-amusement-devices">amusement device</a> as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] an item of plant operated for hire or reward that provides entertainment, sightseeing or amusement through movement of the equipment, or part of the equipment, or when passengers or other users travel or move on, around or along the equipment.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Standards of design</h2>
<p>The Dreamworld Thunder River Rapids Ride has been operating since December 1986. At the time of installation there was no Australian Standard specifying the minimum design and construction safety requirements for any amusement rides in Australia.</p>
<p>The first Amusement Rides and Devices Australian Standard was published some two years later, as AS 3533:1988. This Standard has been constantly updated and amended with more and more detail and guidance.</p>
<p>It is worth noting that this Standard is classified as mandatory, as it is called up in legislation. This means that amusement ride operators are breaking the law if they do not <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/sinodisp/au/legis/qld/consol_reg/whasr2011309/sch5.html?stem=0&synonyms=0&query=(as3533%20or%20%22as%203533%22%20or%20australian%20standards%20w/3%203533)">comply with its requirements</a>.</p>
<p>There is a separate Australian Standard AS 3533.2:2009 that is dedicated to the operation and maintenance of rides, where Section 5 says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>All maintenance, replacements, repairs and inspections of amusement rides and devices, including discrete systems and components within them, shall be carried out by competent persons and shall be —</p>
<p>a) wherever possible, in accordance with the designer or manufacturer’s instructions;</p>
<p>b) fully documented; and</p>
<p>c) recorded in the log with the device or recorded and kept elsewhere for future reference (see also Clause 5.5).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the absence of instructions from the designer or manufacturer, those competent persons involved in the maintenance, replacement, repair and inspection of amusement rides should be able to demonstrate a knowledge of the original intentions of the designer or manufacturer.</p>
<h2>Safety checks</h2>
<p>Planned maintenance programs and inspection routines should be implemented for the moving and load-bearing components and structural members of an amusement device. </p>
<p>This is to maintain mechanical and structural integrity. It is also designed to identify areas where excessive rust, wear, fatigue or any other condition could lead to the failure of such components and compromise the safety of patrons and operating staff.</p>
<p>Maintenance plans should be reviewed based on the results of previous inspections and updated to address any identified needs.</p>
<p>Following major maintenance and repair, and at random intervals on other occasions, a hazard identification and risk assessment procedure should be completed to make sure new hazards are not present and residual risks identified by the designer or manufacturer are not increased.</p>
<p>Provided an amusement ride is adequately maintained in accordance with the relevant Australian Standard, it should be able to operated safely indefinitely.</p>
<p>So what went wrong at Dreamworld yesterday? It’s too early to say what the investigation will uncover.</p>
<p>But it is important to note that it is the norm for the coroner to make recommendations about broader issues connected with the deaths. This could include amendments to the Standards Australia AS 3533 to ensure that a tragedy such as this can never happen again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Eager is a Fellow of Engineers Australia and represents them on the Standards Committee ME-051 Amusement Rides and Devices.</span></em></p>Investigations into the tragic accident which left four people dead at an amusement park could lead to changes in the safety regulations.David Eager, Assistant Student Ombud and Associate Professor, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/650192016-09-12T13:14:04Z2016-09-12T13:14:04ZSpaceX explosion shows why we must slow down private space exploration until we rewrite law<p>The recent <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/spacex-leads-probe-into-falcon-9-rocket-explosion-1473376404">explosion of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket</a> during a test on a launchpad at Cape Canaveral may have opened a Pandora’s box of legal problems previously only discussed with hushed voices in space law circles. </p>
<p>While there is an international space law that sets out a general framework for the conduct of all space activities – including those by private firms – most of it was developed decades ago, before the rise of commercial space exploration. It is in fact not entirely clear how much regulation of space activities by private companies currently exists – particularly in relation to the liability for accidents.</p>
<p>The ultimate blame for the Falcon 9 crash will only emerge after <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/spacex-leads-probe-into-falcon-9-rocket-explosion-1473376404">full investigations</a> are complete. But if the fault does lie with SpaceX, there are reputational consequences and insurance costs for future launches for the company will likely shoot up.</p>
<p>Government space programmes like NASA and the European Space Agency are certainly not immune from catastrophic accidents. If NASA was a car driver, its licence likely would have been revoked on account of the number of tragic explosions. In five of the worst NASA accidents since 1967, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/11194485/Five-worst-accidents-in-Nasas-history.html">17 brave astronauts have lost their lives</a> and several experimental rockets, space vehicles, satellites and space shuttles have been lost. But the sharp increase in private space exploration makes it important to reconsider how the legal landscape has changed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137207/original/image-20160909-13371-fnhdb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137207/original/image-20160909-13371-fnhdb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137207/original/image-20160909-13371-fnhdb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137207/original/image-20160909-13371-fnhdb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137207/original/image-20160909-13371-fnhdb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137207/original/image-20160909-13371-fnhdb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137207/original/image-20160909-13371-fnhdb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The crew of Space Shuttle mission Challenger flight 51-l tragically died after an accident.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When space accidents do happen, the rules that govern them are contained in a confusing patchwork of agreements and treaties. If an accident occurs on Earth, the liability will depend on national rules, such as the general principle of international law that holds corporate companies responsible for damages. But the Outer Space Treaty (1962) says that a state launching a probe or satellite shall be absolutely liable to pay compensation for damage – even when an accident happens on the surface of the Earth. </p>
<p>It can, however, be unclear whether the accident happened in airspace, meaning national aviation laws can apply, or in fact in outer space. Thus, it is becoming increasingly important to determine the exact boundary between airspace and outer space territory. This is important to work out as lawyers will always try to exploit unclear frontiers. </p>
<p>Even in cases where it is clear that space law applies to an accident involving a private company, liability is still a tricky issue. According to space law, the state where the launch takes place and which registered the space object is ultimately responsible. But a private company can be registered in a different state to the launch country, creating a lot of confusion. A solution could be to say that the state registering a certain space probe should be liable. This state would then be free to compel the company to pay damages.</p>
<h2>A rise in serious accidents?</h2>
<p>It is only a <a href="https://fas.org/ota/reports/9033.pdf">matter of time</a> time before we see more than just launch explosions. The risk of serious space accidents will increase as the number of space objects in orbit extends into thousands. The advent of private activities will also exacerbate the problem of space debris, perhaps as private commercial use of the seas has polluted international maritime spaces. The collision of <a href="http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2023/1">the satellites Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251</a> over Siberia in 2009 is a clear example of what may become a common occurrence. </p>
<p>Then there are the 100 to 150 tonnes of man-made space objects <a href="https://theconversation.com/russian-spacecraft-falling-to-earth-poses-no-danger-we-have-survived-bigger-objects-41015">that re-enter Earth’s atmosphere annually</a>. Lots of these simply burn up, but some do manage to cause damage to private property. Again, it’s only a matter of time before the first human life or limb is lost to this kind of incident. </p>
<p>Launches of rockets and payloads are fraught with danger and quite frequently go wrong. But launch accidents appear to affect different countries in different ways. The costs involved in engaging in space station activities are mind boggling and crippling to struggling economies. Increasingly, developing states rely on commercial launchers. But if a private company launches an object that subsequently causes damage in space, the poor state will be liable. </p>
<p>And even in those cases where the launch fails due to misfortune or the mistakes of the private launcher, such companies could still escape paying for the launch accident, as such firms often have water-tight exclusion clauses that protect them from liabilities. The bill again goes to the poor state. </p>
<p>This is especially likely when it is a <a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/dubulj29&div=16&id=&page=">Western company working for a developing country</a>. China on the other hand <a href="http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1112/19longmarch/">agreed to pay</a> for a lost satellite it had launched for Nigeria. It is therefore essential that any developing state protects itself to the fullest against unsuccessful operations caused by negligent and/or accidental failures. </p>
<p>There are also serious issues around the safety of astronauts, who <a href="http://www.unoosa.org/favicon.ico">have the legal right</a> to a safe existence when in outer space. But it is unclear whether this law does – or should – extend to private astronauts. Also, a launching state currently must be notified regarding incidents involving astronauts on international missions – and it is required to assist and contribute substantially to search and rescue operations. Can a private company really supply the enormous sums or other resources that may be needed? Will the home state of the private company be willing to pay? Again, the law isn’t clear.</p>
<p>With the increase in private participation in space experimentation and perhaps even mineral mining, the provisions governing civil liability over mishaps arising from the operations of a space station are likely to become one of the most contested areas of space law. What if a module or component part fails to function on a space station? In the absence of multilateral rules on this point, a patchwork of legal rules is gradually maintained through MOUs (Memorandum of Understanding) and other national laws such as the US Commercial Space Launchings Act (CSLA) of 1978. How will private companies fit into these as they possibly become partners? </p>
<p>Liberalism and the private entrepreneurial spirit do have their place in outer space. But there must be carefully designed limits. The treaties and legal regime of space law has not been adequately amended to account for the rise of private space exploration. For humanity’s sake, private space exploration may have to proceed more slowly until these important issues are sorted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gbenga Oduntan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is unclear how regulated space activities by private companies really are.Gbenga Oduntan, Reader in International Commercial Law, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/624292016-07-28T19:44:14Z2016-07-28T19:44:14ZAutomation can leave us complacent, and that can have dangerous consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132289/original/image-20160728-21584-hdj6q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is a hands off approach the right way to go when it comes to automation?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/riopatuca</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-01/tesla-driver-killed-while-car-was-in-on-autopilot/7560126">fatal accident</a> involving a Tesla car while self-driving using the car’s Autopilot feature has <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-teslas-autopilot-cars-be-allowed-on-public-roads-following-accidents-62495">raised questions</a> about whether this technology is ready for consumer use.</p>
<p>But more importantly, it highlights the need to reconsider the relationship between human behaviour and technology. Self-driving cars change the way we drive, and we need scrutinise the impact of this on safety.</p>
<p>Tesla’s Autopilot does not make the car truly autonomous and self-driving. Rather, it automates driving functions, such as steering, speed, braking and hazard avoidance. This is an important distinction. The Autopilot provides supplemental assistance to, but is not a replacement for, the driver.</p>
<p>In a statement following the accident, <a href="https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tragic-loss">Tesla</a> reiterated that Autopilot is still in beta. The statement emphasised that drivers must maintain responsibility for the vehicle and be prepared to take over manual control at any time.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/presskit/autopilot">Tesla says</a> Autopilot improves safety, helps to avoid hazards and reduces driver workload. But with reduced workload, the question is whether the driver allocates freed-up cognitive resources to maintain supervisory control over Autopilot.</p>
<h2>Automation bias</h2>
<p>There is evidence to suggest that humans have trouble recognising when automation has failed and manual intervention is required. <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1207/s15327108ijap0301_1">Research shows</a> we are poor supervisors of trusted automation, with a tendency towards over-reliance.</p>
<p>Known as automation bias, when people use automation such as autopilot, they may delegate full responsibility to automation rather than continue to be vigilant. This reduces our workload, but it also reduces our ability to recognise when automation has failed, signalling the need to take back manual control.</p>
<p>Automation bias can occur anytime when automation is over-relied on and gets it wrong. This can happen because automation was not set properly.</p>
<p>An incorrectly set GPS navigation will lead you astray. This happened to one driver who followed an incorrectly set GPS <a href="http://gizmodo.com/5975787/woman-drives-for-900-miles-instead-of-90-thanks-to-gps-error">across several European countries</a>.</p>
<p>More tragically, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/31/us/kal-fight-007-anniversary/">Korean Airlines flight 007</a> was shot down when it strayed into Soviet airspace in 1983, killing all 269 on board. Unknown to the pilots, the aircraft deviated from its intended course due to an incorrectly set autopilot.</p>
<h2>Autocorrect is not always correct</h2>
<p>Automation will work exactly as programmed. Reliance on a spell checker to identify typing errors will not reveal the wrong words used that were spelt correctly. For example, mistyping “from” as “form”.</p>
<p>Likewise, automation isn’t aware of our intentions and will sometimes act contrary to them. This frequently occurs with predictive text and autocorrect on mobile devices. Here over-reliance can result in miscommunication with some hilarious consequences as documented on the website <a href="http://www.damnyouautocorrect.com/">Damn You Autocorrect</a>.</p>
<p>Sometimes automation will encounter circumstances that it can’t handle, as could have occurred in the Tesla crash.</p>
<p>GPS navigation has <a href="http://www.theadvance.ca/community/2016/7/12/gps-leads-tourists-to-dead-end-en-route-to-kej-seaside.html">led drivers down a dead-end road</a> when a highway was rerouted but the maps not updated.</p>
<p>Over-reliance on automation can exacerbate problems by reducing situational awareness. This is especially dangerous as it limits our ability to take back manual control when things go wrong. </p>
<p>The captain of <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19850219-0">China Airlines flight 006</a> left autopilot engaged while attending to an engine failure. The loss of power from one engine caused the plane to start banking to one side. </p>
<p>Unknown to the pilots, the autopilot was compensating by steering as far as it could in the opposite direction. It was doing exactly what it had been programmed to do, keeping the plane as level as possible.</p>
<p>But this masked the extent of the problem. In an attempt to level the plane, the captain disengaged the autopilot. The result was a complete loss of control, the plane rolled sharply and entered a steep descent. Fortunately, the pilots were able to regain control, but only after falling 30,000 feet.</p>
<h2>Humans vs automation</h2>
<p>When automation gets it right, it can improve performance. But <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1071581999902525">research findings</a> show that when automation gets it wrong, performance is worse than if there had been no automation at all.</p>
<p>And tasks we find difficult are also often difficult for automation.</p>
<p>In medicine, computers can assist radiologists detect cancers in screening mammograms by placing prompts over suspicious features. These systems are very sensitive, identifying the majority of cancers. </p>
<p>But in cases where the system missed cancers, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1076633204003265">human readers with computer-aided detection missed more than readers with no automated assistance</a>. <a href="http://mdm.sagepub.com/content/33/1/98.short">Researchers</a> noted cancers that were difficult for humans to detect were also difficult for computers to detect.</p>
<p>Technology developers need to consider more than their automation technologies. They need to understand how automation changes human behaviour. While automation is generally highly reliable, it has the potential to fail.</p>
<p>Automation developers try to combat this risk by placing humans in a supervisory role with final authority. But automation bias research shows that relying on humans as a backup to automation is fraught with danger and a task for which they are poorly suited. </p>
<p>Developers and regulators must not only assess the automation technology itself, but also the way in which humans interact with it, especially in situations when automation fails. And as users of automation, we must remain ever vigilant, ready to take back control at the first sign of trouble.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lyell received a doctoral scholarship from the HCF Research Foundation.</span></em></p>More tasks are being given over to automation, from autopilots in transport to medical diagnosis. But humans are a poor backup for automation, especially when the automation goes wrong.David Lyell, PhD Candidate in Health Informatics, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/562422016-07-22T10:09:32Z2016-07-22T10:09:32ZDrunk driving laws don’t match the research<p>Emergency physicians learn to be prepared for anything thrown at us in the clinical arena. Personal life is a different story. Last year a drunk driver with multiple prior offenses and no valid driver’s license smashed a truck through the wall of my son’s daycare. </p>
<p>Fortunately, the children and staff were in undamaged areas. But just minutes before, my son and I had walked through the exact spot in the art room where the truck came to rest in a pile of debris. </p>
<p>Having worked in the ER for years, I’ve seen the aftermath of drunk driving often enough before, but that was the first time I had seen an accident caused by a drunk driver up close.</p>
<p>Drunk driving is a major public health problem in the U.S. In 2014 nearly one-third of the nation’s 32,675 traffic fatalities <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812231">were alcohol-related</a>. This means a completely preventable death happened every 53 minutes in this country. </p>
<p>My brush with a drunk driver made me wonder about what practices and policies can help prevent accidents and fatalities. Research suggests lower blood alcohol concentration limits and interventions like ignition interlocks can make a big difference.</p>
<h2>Think you’re OK to drive?</h2>
<p>When drunk drivers come to the ER they often express surprise, disbelief or denial about their blood alcohol concentration (BAC) or their level of impairment. They often are drunker than they think they are. </p>
<p>Higher blood alcohol levels, no matter how “sober” you feel, can have a real impact on your ability to perform tasks that require concentration, such as driving. While people who drink more often may feel the effects of alcohol less acutely than someone who does not, their reflexes and judgment can still be impaired. And the more you drink, the harder it is to judge how intoxicated you are.</p>
<p>At least one study involving college students has shown that higher BACs are associated with an <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0023942">underestimation of an individual’s level of intoxication</a>. </p>
<p>Studies have also shown that increasing BAC is also associated with a <a href="http://bja.oxfordjournals.org/content/85/3/401.full.pdf">decreased reaction time</a>.
For instance, one study pointed to an average decreased reaction time of 120 milliseconds, just over a tenth of a second, associated with a blood alcohol content (BAC) level of 0.08, the legal limit. Traveling at 70 miles per hour, a drunk driver would travel for an additional 12 feet before reacting to a roadway hazard.</p>
<h2>Legal limit for blood alcohol is pretty high</h2>
<p>In 2000 Congress passed legislation making 0.08 the national standard for impaired driving in the United States. Under the law, states that did not <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/Planning%20Evaluation%20&%20Budget/Programs%20&%20Grants/Associated%20Files/08SanctionFAQ.pdf">adopt 0.08 as the standard</a> by 2004 faced cuts in federal highway funding. By the time the law was passed many states had already adopted the 0.08 standards, but some states used 0.10 as the standard.</p>
<p>The lowering of the limit was in response to a <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/research/pub/alcohol-laws/08History/1_introduction.htm">1992 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration report to Congress</a> recommending this action as a way to reduce highway deaths. Implementation of these lower BAC laws has been associated with <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10875666">a decrease in alcohol-related highway fatalities</a>. But 0.08 is still a fairly high BAC level compared to other developed countries. </p>
<p>Among the largest industrialized countries, only the U.S., <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/chq/Pages/2096.aspx?categoryid=87&subcategoryid=871">United Kingdom</a> (with the exception of Scotland, which sets a lower limit) and <a href="http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/impaired-driving.shtml">Canada</a> permit BACs as high as 0.08. France, Germany, Italy and Australia currently set their BAC limit at 0.05. Japan has the lowest requirement of this group at 0.03. European countries in particular have sought lower BAC requirements in the past decades as part of an <a href="http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.54600">effort to decrease traffic deaths</a></p>
<p>When the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, made its recommendations to change EU laws to recommend a <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32001H0115&from=EN">BAC of 0.05</a> as the per se limit for impaired driving, they included supporting data, including fatality reductions, from countries with existing 0.05 BAC laws. </p>
<h2>There’s a big difference between 0.05 BAC and 0.08</h2>
<p>It might not take as many drinks as you think to slow your reaction time and make safe driving harder. </p>
<p>For the purposes of standardization, <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/impaired_driving/bac.html">a drink is defined</a> as 12 ounces of 5 percent alcohol beer, five ounces of 12 percent alcohol wine or one and a half ounces of 80 proof (40 percent alcohol) liquor. To account for an individual drinking over a longer period of time, subtract about 0.01 percent for each 40 minutes of drinking time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How many drinks does it take to get to the limit?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/drinkinganddriving/">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a 160-pound man, two alcoholic beverages can bring about some loss of judgment, decreased ability to rapidly track a moving target and result in decreased ability to multitask. Women generally weighing less than men, would see a higher BAC per drink. </p>
<p>Three alcoholic drinks will bring a person’s blood alcohol level to a level of approximately 0.05 percent, which can impair the ability to rapidly focus vision, lower alertness, and decrease coordination to the point that steering becomes difficult and response to driving emergencies becomes blunted. </p>
<p>After approximately four alcoholic drinks, balance, vision and reaction time are often affected. It becomes harder to detect roadway dangers. Reasoning and information processing are <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/research/pub/impaired_driving/BAC/impairment.pdf">often measurably impaired</a>. This corresponds most closely to a BAC of 0.08 percent, the limit set by most states for legal operation of a vehicle. </p>
<p>A blood alcohol of 0.10 percent is generally associated with a clear loss of reaction time and control. There will be reduced ability to maintain proper lane position or brake appropriately.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, as the BAC level climbs higher than 0.10 percent, it is associated with the progressively deteriorating ability to drive a vehicle safely. </p>
<p>Studies going back to the 1960s have demonstrated the correlation between BAC and accident risk. The <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Traffic+Techs/current/Relative+Risk+Calculated+For+Driver+Fatalities+In+Alcohol-Related+Crashes">relative risk of being in a crash</a> is 1.38 times higher at a BAC of 0.05 than 0.00. At 0.08, the risk is 2.69 times higher. At 0.10, the crash risk climbs to five times higher. </p>
<p>When you consider the medical evidence, including <a href="http://www.dhs.de/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/Pathways_for_Health-Project/reducing_drinking_and_driving_report.pdf">the physiological effects</a>, and the relative risk of crash, you can understand why some countries set the legal limit at 0.05 and why in 2013 the NTSB <a href="http://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-studies/Documents/SR1301.pdf">recommended that 0.05</a> become the new limit in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Ignition interlocks could stop drunk drivers</h2>
<p>Drunk driving is a tough problem to solve. One solution is to focus interventions on those who have a prior alcohol impaired driving arrest because they are at <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2853607/">higher risk of doing it again</a>. The reasons for this are not clear, but many drunk driving episodes are <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/drinkinganddriving/">linked to binge drinking</a> and not simply social drinking.</p>
<p>Ignition interlocks, which are essentially breathalyzers connected to the vehicle’s ignition system, could also make a difference. These devices ensure that the vehicle can only be started by a sober driver. They’ve have been around for many years and modern versions have features to resist tampering, and require intermittent rechecks to ensure the driver doesn’t drink after starting the vehicle. </p>
<p>All states use <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/state-ignition-interlock-laws.aspx">ignition interlocks to some degree</a>, but as of January 2016, only 23 states require interlocks for all DUI offenders, which are sometimes called universal ignition interlock laws. The <a href="http://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/PR20121211.aspx">NTSB recommended</a> the use of ignition interlocks for all first time offenders in 2012. </p>
<p>A 2015 study in the American Journal of Public Health, found that states with these laws have <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303058">fewer alcohol involved crash deaths</a>. Researchers compared data for 18 states which implemented universal ignition interlock laws to 32 states that had not. In those 18 states, universal interlock laws <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-drunkdriving-locks-idUSKCN0WK2IH">saved 918 lives</a>, a 15 percent reduction in deaths related to drunk driving.</p>
<p>It is every driver’s responsibility to understand that there is no “safe” BAC level. It’s simple: The more you drink, the less you are able to drive safely, and the higher the likelihood of an accident. For those who ignore the evidence and the law, at least there is a technical solution that could help stop further loss of life to this preventable problem.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was updated on July 22, 2016 to correct information about BAC in the United Kingdom.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad J. Uren serves on the advisory board for the Michigan chapter of Mothers Against Drunk Driving. </span></em></p>Research suggests lower blood alcohol concentration limits and interventions like ignition interlocks can make a big difference.Brad J. Uren, Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/543612016-02-11T10:33:20Z2016-02-11T10:33:20ZExploding buses and plane crashes: why stuntmen are the unsung heroes of film<p>Had you been enjoying a peaceful wander along the Thames last Sunday things wouldn’t have remained calm for long. Because that morning a double decker bus <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/12145080/Bus-explodes-on-Lambeth-Bridge-in-London-but-it-was-all-for-a-movie.html">exploded</a> on Lambeth Bridge. Many panicked. But the explosion turned out to have been a stunt for Jackie Chan’s latest movie, and the stunt was subsequently <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lambeth-bridge-bus-explosion-77-victims-father-labels-film-stunt-insensitive-a6860386.html">criticised</a> as insensitive, particularly by the father of a 7/7 victim. Many onlookers were <a href="http://metro.co.uk/2016/02/07/people-were-pretty-panicked-when-a-london-bus-was-blown-up-this-morning-5667328/">shocked</a> and upset, but at least no one was hurt. Many other film stunts have gone terribly wrong in the past.</p>
<p>Sadly there is a long history of serious accidents and fatalities on set. The silent years were particularly dangerous – not least because many of the spectacular visual stunts were done for “real”. Stunt pilot Dick Grace, for example, suffered a broken neck while deliberately crashing an aeroplane for the World War I aviation epic <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0018578/">Wings</a> (1927) – miraculously he recovered and was back performing stunts within a year. Others have not been so lucky. Three stunt pilots were killed during the filming of <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0020960/">Hell’s Angels</a> (1930), and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0092099/">Top Gun</a> (1986) is dedicated to <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/1985-09-18/local/me-6135_1_stunt-pilot">Art Scholl</a>, who died while attempting to capture a pilot’s-eye view of a diving spin from his camera-plane.</p>
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<p>Movie fatalities are not confined to action-heavy aviation pictures. Brandon Lee died on the set of <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109506/">The Crow</a> (1994) when a gun was accidentally loaded with a live round rather than a blank. Three actors – including two children – were killed on a night shoot for <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086491/">Twilight Zone: The Movie</a> (1983) when a pyrotechnic effect detonated too close to a helicopter, which then spun out of control and crashed. And Roy Kinnear suffered a heart attack and died after falling off his horse on the set of <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0098194/">The Return of the Musketeers</a> (1989) – an accident that prompted director Richard Lester to give up making movies. </p>
<p>Then there are the indirect deaths. Silent film star Wallace Reid was injured while making <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0018531/">The Valley of the Giants</a> in 1919: he was given morphine to ease the pain and later died from addiction to the drug. And it was filming close to the US atomic bomb test sites in Nevada for <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0049092/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Conqueror</a> (1955) that has been <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/film/the-conqueror/making-of-movie-that-killed-john-wayne/">blamed</a> for John Wayne, Susan Hayward, and director Dick Powell, all contracting cancer.</p>
<p>Given this roll-call, it’s legitimate to question whether the art of motion picture stunts is worth the risk. But where would the movies be without stunts and stuntmen (and women)? Film would be indelibly poorer without the gravity-defying acrobatics of silent film comedians such as Harold Lloyd and Buster Keaton, who performed many of their own stunts for real. And in the days before CGI, the epic battle scenes for films such as <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0004972/">Birth of a Nation</a> (1915), <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0054331/?ref_=fn_al_tt_2">Spartacus</a> (1960) and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056197/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Longest Day</a> (1962) had to be re-enacted by hundreds of extras. CGI-enhanced effects of modern blockbusters can often seem less realistic than doing it the old-fashioned way.</p>
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<h2>Top stunts</h2>
<p>We all have our favourite movie stunts. By common consent one of the greatest stunt performers of all time was Yakima Canutt, an extraordinary horseman whose work can be seen in countless Westerns and adventure movies. Canutt’s most famous stunt was in <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0031971/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Stagecoach</a> (1939), where he plays one of the Commanche horsemen chasing John Wayne and his fellow travellers across the salt flats. Canutt jumps onto the leading horse, is shot by Wayne, and then falls to the ground. The horses and stagecoach then pass over him. He can just be seen, in long shot, getting to his feet after the coach has passed. He repeated and improved on the stunt for <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0032164/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Zorro’s Fighting Legion</a> (1940) where, doubling for Zorro, he not only let the stagecoach pass over him but then flipped around to climb onto it from the back.</p>
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<p>Canutt is just edged out for my favourite stunt by Rick Sylvester, who doubled as Roger Moore’s James Bond in the pre-title sequence of <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0076752/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">The Spy Who Loved Me</a> (1977) for the scene where Bond, pursued by KGB assassins, skis off the top of a mountain and free-falls into space before opening the parachute that we didn’t know he had. The story goes that Bond producer Cubby Broccoli had seen a picture of Sylvester parachuting off a mountain in an advert – only to be told that it had been faked. Sylvester, unfazed, agreed to do it for real. It’s often been claimed as the greatest movie stunt of them all – though Sylvester, with the charming modesty of his breed, <a href="https://www.sundaypost.com/in10/health/james-bond-the-honest-truth/">maintains</a> that he had little to do and that gravity deserves much of the credit.</p>
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<p>There have been some positive outcomes from film tragedies. It was following the mistreatment of horses on films like <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0027438/">The Charge of the Light Brigade</a> (1936) and Jesse James (1939) that the American Humane Association set up a Hollywood office and began to monitor the treatment of animals on set. And the Twilight Zone tragedy led to important changes in the too often derided health and safety regulations applied to the film industry.</p>
<p>Thankfully not all accidents end in tragedy. Some can even be quite funny. The outtakes of <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070328/?ref_=nv_sr_1">Live and Let Die</a> (1973) show Ross Kananga, again doubling for Roger Moore, skipping over the backs of crocodiles. The take we see in the film was the fifth: on each of the first four it doesn’t quite go right, and on one take the last crocodile nips his foot.</p>
<p>Today’s movie stuntmen are a hardy breed of professionals who accept there is always a risk. The stunt business is more regulated than it was in the everything-goes silent days – but it’s also more professionalised. So I, for one, hope we don’t see an end to the tradition of doing stunts for real – it looks so much better than CGI.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Chapman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many onlookers were shocked when a bus blew up on a London bridge for a film stunt, but at least no one was hurt. There is a long history of serious accidents and fatalities on set.James Chapman, Professor of Film Studies, University of LeicesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/525802015-12-22T11:14:31Z2015-12-22T11:14:31ZHoverboards and health: how good for you is this year’s hottest trend?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106811/original/image-20151221-27851-1rtzm65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">OK, no spontaneous flames, doing well....</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/135310117@N08/21981159388">urbanwheel.co</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Walking across campus to my office each morning this semester, I’ve found it hard to ignore the growing number of students using hoverboards to get around. These two-wheel self-balancing boards (they don’t really hover, Back-to-the-Future-style) are one of the hottest gadgets this holiday season.</p>
<p>I’m probably just being a curmudgeon, but my first reaction as I saw students hoverboarding between classes was “Why?!” </p>
<p>As sedentary lifestyles continue to be a major underlying factor in chronic conditions like type 2 diabetes and heart disease, I wondered whether these trendy two-wheelers are simply another way to avoid the exercise we all need to stay healthy. After the novelty wears off, will hoverboards become just one more device we use to cut activity out of our daily lives?</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1643&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106814/original/image-20151221-27884-1cosi41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1643&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Eat my hovering dust.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ddindy/16221360236">Dennis D</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>Perhaps not surprisingly, there’s pretty much nothing known yet about the relative merits of hoverboarding compared to walking between locations (or in the case of many students, skateboarding). The technology’s cool-appeal is still way ahead of questions like “Is it healthy?”</p>
<p>And as it turns out, chronic disease is currently the least of the budding hoverboarder’s worries. Over the past few months, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hilarious-hoverboard-fails_561d16d6e4b050c6c4a2d143">videos of hoverboard slips and spills</a> have become rife. These are amusing enough, if you’re into watching other people’s pratfalls. But they also illuminate a problem of serious injury from inexpert board use.</p>
<p>In a quick analysis of health care service provider records, <a href="http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2015/12/18/roads-where-were-going-we-dont-need-roads/">pediatrician Hannah Galvin</a> found a sharp upturn in patients seen for hoverboard incidents from September to November this year. Many of these were associated with teenagers. And a US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) spokesperson recently flagged a rapid rise in hoverboard-related hospital visits, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hoverboard-fires-injuries-soar-amid-safety-probe/">in an interview with CBS News</a>.</p>
<p>And this is not just a US issue. Tragically, a teenager riding a hoverboard was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/11/hoverboard-death-in-london-believed-to-be-first-involving-swegway">hit and killed by a bus in London</a> recently. And in the UK, the organization Citizens Advice recently tweeted that they’d dealt with 250 problems in December alone.</p>
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<p>Hoverboard injuries have become such a prominent issue that Elliot Kane, chairman of the CPSC, recently <a href="http://www.cpsc.gov/en/About-CPSC/Chairman/Kaye-Biography/Chairman-Kayes-Statements/Statements/Statement-from-the-US-CPSC-Chairman-Elliot-F-Kaye-on-the-safety-of-hoverboards/">issued a statement saying,</a> “I do not want to downplay the fall hazard.” The statement went on to emphasize the importance of wearing safety gear when using hoverboards – something that doesn’t seem to have trickled down to most users yet.</p>
<p>Kane’s statement also highlights a more visible hoverboard hazard, though – and one that’s been dominating the media over the past few weeks: the possibility of your cherished board <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2015/12/19/460354043/why-are-hoverboards-literally-catching-on-fire">spontaneously going up in flames</a>.</p>
<p>The trouble, it seems, lies with the less-than-safe lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries that some models use. Overcharging, physical stress or shorting <a href="https://youtu.be/y_mdOKvolg0">can lead to these overheating and rupturing</a>, sometimes with disastrous consequences.</p>
<p>Despite the novelty of hoverboards, the dangers of Li-ion batteries are not new. Over the years, they’ve been responsible for fire hazards in products ranging from <a href="http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2006/Apple-Announces-Recall-of-Batteries-Used-in-Previous-iBook-and-PowerBook-Computers-Due-To-Fire-Hazard/">laptop computers</a> to the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/business/report-on-boeing-787-dreamliner-batteries-assigns-some-blame-for-flaws.html?_r=0">Boeing 787 Dreamliner</a>. They’re a technology that, if used responsibly, is reasonably safe. But they’re highly susceptible to becoming a safety risk if shoddily made, misused or mistreated.</p>
<p>It may turn out that hoverboards demand better Li-ion battery design and use standards for them to remain safe, and that what we’re now seeing are the early warnings of not-quite-there technology. Or it may simply be that some unscrupulous companies are cutting corners to cash in on consumer demand.</p>
<p>Either way, it’s likely that recalibration of regulations and guidelines around hoverboard use will eventually lead to increased safety over time – hopefully without too many people being injured in the process.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106812/original/image-20151221-27884-1q0kigj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Come on, keep those paws moving.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/franklinheijnen/22743903673">Franklin Heijnen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>It may be that, once the safety issues are ironed out, hoverboards will be no worse health-wise than walking to where you’re going. And as a bonus, they may provide unusual ways of getting your workout in.</p>
<p>For instance, hoverboard user Justin Rankin suggests that riding one isn’t as passive as it might seem. “Even when I’m standing on the hoverboard doing absolutely nothing, I can feel muscles firing and increased heart rate,” he writes in a <a href="http://www.laglyders.com/blog/two-wheel-smart-balance-hoverboard-scooter-calories">recent blog at LAGlyders</a>.</p>
<p>And searching YouTube for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=hoverboard+workouts">“Hoverboard workouts”</a> reveals a growing – if occasionally bizarre – catalog of ways in which people are using these devices to keep fit!</p>
<p>Whether the workout you get while hoverboarding from A to B is comparable to a brisk walk remains to be seen. I still wonder whether the desire to get around faster, and with less effort, doesn’t take just a little away from the simple pleasure of taking a few minutes to stretch your legs.</p>
<p>Then again, maybe I’m just showing my age.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Assuming your new ride doesn’t burst into flames, should you worry about other health impacts of hoverboarding about?Andrew Maynard, Director, Risk Innovation Lab, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/489762015-10-21T00:07:50Z2015-10-21T00:07:50ZThe ‘fatal five’ causes of road trauma: who’s in control?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/98357/original/image-20151014-12614-3xb71i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The makers of GPS devices are among the many factors and actors whose role in road safety has not been fully considered.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/litandmore/3632167092/in/photolist-6wXNJy-8A8MvT-cT211Y-2hYq6-5twC7S-9tVkuU-9sLbw-oqMYmY-danU6J-86Ld4F-4MytfK-7MDLio-8CM6cP-dw6baa-6z9Kvr-9zVFo4-9zVCqK-9zVFeM-9zYDY5-9zVFi6-9zVCqp-9zVFpk-9zYE1G-dJySRB-4R56yQ-8Dsb4J-8Ds9BN-ctchmu-ctchME-9zVFvv-aCbkhx-aCbkpx-apfxdu-pkxtzm-pkxr75-p466N8-pix7UQ-p45S3o-pkxt6q-p455cM-p45fKG-pkhXog-pkza16-pix6cm-p465eM-p45hEy-72cb1P-9XomHZ-8DrZ8C-oP6MZQ">flickr/Schu</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite significant progress, road transport systems continue to kill people on a <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/">scale that is comparable</a> to cancers, cardiovascular disease and respiratory diseases.</p>
<p>In Australian states such as Queensland, the focus is on reducing the <a href="https://www.racq.com.au/about/club-enews/fatal-five">“fatal five”</a> behaviours that cause road trauma: speeding, drink and drug driving, not wearing seatbelts, fatigue and driving while distracted. </p>
<p>Alongside this, <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/safety/national_road_safety_strategy/">road safety strategy</a> calls for a shared responsibility for road safety that spans many stakeholders. They include road users, road and vehicle designers, policymakers, advocacy groups, road safety authorities and government.</p>
<p>While this is a step in the right direction, it is not entirely clear who shares this responsibility, or what the responsibilities are. Given contemporary <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/engineering-safer-world">accident models</a>, which argue that accidents are caused by a loss of control between actors and organisations across levels of a system, it seems pertinent to clarify two questions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Who is in the road transport system (and thus shares the responsibility for road safety)?</p></li>
<li><p>What control measures do different actors and organisations enact in pursuit of road safety?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>If there are shared responsibilities, what do these entail? As part of a program of research that involves applying new systems thinking <a href="http://sunnyday.mit.edu/">models and methods</a> in road transport, we built a <a href="http://sunnyday.mit.edu/accidents/safetyscience-single.pdf">control structure model</a> of the Queensland road transport system to answer these questions. </p>
<p>Based on control theory, this type of model argues that the behaviour of complex systems is managed through control and feedback loops. Controls are constraints imposed by actors and organisations at higher levels on the behaviour of those below. Feedback loops provide information about the impact of the controls at the lower levels, enabling decision-makers to evaluate and adapt control strategies over time.</p>
<h2>What does the model reveal?</h2>
<p>We have reviewed and amended the model based on feedback from almost 50 experts in road safety and systems thinking. The initial findings are compelling.</p>
<p>The model shows the actors and organisations within the Queensland road transport system along with the control and feedback relationships between them. These actors and organisations span six levels: the road environment; local management and supervision; operational delivery and management; government agencies, industry associations, user groups, insurance companies and the courts; parliament and legislatures; and international influences. </p>
<p>The model gives an indication of the breadth of intertwined actors and organisations who share responsibility for road safety. The usual suspects are in there; however, there are many others that may not typically be thought of as playing a role in road safety. They include the media, manufacturers of devices such as mobile phones and in-vehicle GPS devices, organisations employing drivers, insurers, schools, parents and local council officers. </p>
<p>The forms of control adopted are interesting. These include managerial (such as resource allocation), organisational (such as policies and procedures), physical (such as signage and signals) and manufacturing-based controls (such as standards). Forms of control vary widely depending on which level of the road system you look at, which is similar to other safety-critical systems. </p>
<p>Another interesting thing to note is the relative strength of the controls. These can be weaker in comparison to other transportation domains such as aviation and rail transport. Consequently, there is more latitude for behaviour, and a range of societal influences readily affect the choices that drivers make.</p>
<p>For example, controls around impairment by drugs and alcohol are stronger in aviation, where pilots have to comply with strictly enforced rules on drug and alcohol consumption. Although road users are bound by similar rules, the nature of road transport systems is such that the rules cannot be so consistently enforced. Alcohol and drug testing in road transport systems will never achieve the same coverage and impact as it does in aviation systems. </p>
<p>The same can be said for controls around other fatal five behaviours such as fatigue and distraction, exacerbated by there being no accepted test (unlike blood alcohol testing) for these performance impairments.</p>
<p>A challenge for the road safety community is to strengthen the controls enacted on road users while ensuring they are practical to enact. This will likely involve developing new forms of control, rather than simply increasing the frequency with which current controls are applied. </p>
<p>In addition, the impact of wider societal influences on driver behaviour should be considered and exploited when developing controls.</p>
<h2>Knowledge gaps compromise safety</h2>
<p>Finally, the model raises questions about our current understanding of road traffic crashes. If road transport systems are so large and complex, comprising multiple actors and organisations tightly bound together by control relationships and feedback loops, then surely there are more factors that contribute to crashes? The model suggests that interactions not typically considered in road crash data analysis can play a role in creating or enabling the fatal five behaviours. </p>
<p>When, for example, will we consider mobile phone and vehicle designers and related standards as contributing to crashes involving drivers distracted by a mobile phone? Similarly, the causal chain in work-related driving crashes likely extends up to managers, chief executives, policymakers and ministers. </p>
<p>The current focus is on driver-, vehicle- and road environment-related factors. According to our model, this leaves a significant gap in the knowledge base.</p>
<p>On a positive note, the model also shows a diverse group is involved in attempting to minimise road trauma, and many control and feedback loops have been implemented. These are the hallmarks of safe systems. </p>
<p>The efforts of the road safety community should be applauded; we should not forget the significant and tangible impact that has been achieved to date. </p>
<p>There is still work to be done. It may be that, as well as focusing our efforts on improving road user behaviour on the front line, we should consider how to optimise other levels in road transport systems. We have spent a great deal of time focusing on the controlled; it may be time to focus on the controllers.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Paul will be taking part in an Ask An Expert Q&A on Twitter from 4 and 5pm on Wednesday, October 21. Head over to Twitter and post your questions about road safety using #AskAnExpert.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Salmon receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gemma Read does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The focus is on reducing the “fatal five” behaviours that cause road trauma: speeding, drink and drug driving, not wearing seatbelts, fatigue and driving while distracted.Paul Salmon, Professor, Human Factors, University of the Sunshine CoastGemma Read, Research Fellow in Human Factors & Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/454892015-08-01T01:19:23Z2015-08-01T01:19:23ZWhat can we learn from any wreckage from missing flight MH370<p>There is much hope that the piece of an aircraft wing washed up on Reunion Island is from the missing Malaysia Airlines <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-mh370">flight MH370</a>, which disappeared in March last year.</p>
<p>The MH370 Boeing 777 was initially on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing when it <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-could-have-happened-to-flight-mh370-24161">disappeared</a>. It was later thought to have changed course with the search operation moved to the Indian Ocean off the west Australian coast. But after almost 17 months of searching, there had been no sign of any of the aircraft or the 239 passengers and crew.</p>
<p>So the discovery this week of a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-30/plane-wreckage-sparks-malaysia-airlines-mh370-speculation/6658600">piece of aircraft wing</a> on an island off Madagascar could be the first clue to what may have happened to the aircraft. <a href="https://theconversation.com/aircraft-debris-looks-like-its-from-mh370-now-can-we-find-the-rest-45472">Ocean experts</a> have already said it is possible that the debris could have moved from seas off Western Australia to the island, based on knowledge of the Indian Ocean currents.</p>
<p>MH370 is the only known Boeing 777 to be missing, although other accidents involving Boeing aircraft have been mentioned as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-30/plane-wreckage-sparks-malaysia-airlines-mh370-speculation/6658600">possible sources of the debris</a>.</p>
<p>The debris is being sent to France for analysis. There are some part numbers on the item, such as 657 BB, which Malaysia’s deputy transport minister Abdul Aziz Kaprawi said confirms the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-31/malaysia-mh370-search-official-confirms-debris-from-boeing-777/6664696">debris is from a Boeing 777</a>.</p>
<p>Boeing will have very accurate records of all the materials used in the construction of each aircraft, including the metal components and paint.</p>
<p>The results of forensic analysis of the metals and paints on the wreckage can be compared to those specifications to determine beyond doubt whether it’s from MH370.</p>
<h2>Examining the debris</h2>
<p>The debris found on Reunion Island certainly looks like it has been in the water for some time given the amount of barnacles and other sea life attached.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, much can be determined by careful examination of the wreckage. For example, the nature of the structural failures can shed light on the forces that would have been exerted in order for this section to have broken away as it did.</p>
<p>This will give some indication of what effect that same type of load might have caused to other parts of the aircraft structure which will start to inform modelling of the possible break up sequences. This could provide searchers with the first clues as to what they are looking for.</p>
<p>In other words, are they looking for wreckage that is in lots of little pieces, where the engines might be among the biggest parts, or is there likely to be large fuselage sections and wing sections likely to be still intact.</p>
<p>Inspection of the wreckage may exhibit other evidence of how the aircraft broke up. Analysis of the stresses on the surfaces, for instance, may provide some clues on the nature of the overloads and bending moments. Impact marks or other deformations in the structure might also provide clues to the configuration and attitude of the aircraft at impact with the water.</p>
<p>It might also start to provide clues as to whether the aircraft broke up in flight or on impact with the water. This may also help inform modelling of what the nature of the wreckage and the size of the debris field might be.</p>
<h2>Location, location, location</h2>
<p>Of course, if this wreckage is from MH370, this is the first validation of assumptions and modelling more than 12 months ago that suggested the aircraft had turned back across the Malaysian peninsular and crashed somewhere in the Southern Indian Ocean. It would validate that the intermittent primary radar returns detected by the military radars were from MH370.</p>
<p>This section of the aircraft clearly stayed afloat since the crash as it had air trapped within its structure. It seems reasonable that there should be others.</p>
<p>Many parts of the aircraft are manufactured from honeycomb structured materials which are very strong, very light and have many pockets of trapped air. Accordingly, some wing fairings and panels, and flying surfaces such as the rudder and horizontal stabilisers may also be expected to float. </p>
<p>It will be very interesting to see what other debris comes ashore in the coming weeks. Every piece recovered and analysed will shed more light on what happened to MH370 and help inform the search.</p>
<p>The Joint Agency Coordination Centre which is looking after the search for MH370 issued a <a href="http://jacc.gov.au/families/operational_reports/opsearch-update-20150729.aspx">statement late July</a> saying up 55,000 square kilometres of a potential 120,000 square kilometres of the seabed off WA has so far been searched.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90380/original/image-20150731-18721-fe1p8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The MH370 search area of Western Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://jacc.gov.au/families/operational_reports/opsearch-update-20150729.aspx">Australian Transport Safety Bureau</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of the search vessels, <a href="http://www.fugro.com/media-centre/mh370-latest">Fugro Discovery</a>, was due to arrive in the port at Fremantle this weekend for resupply before heading back out about August 12. The other vessel, Fugro Equator, is continuing the search in the southern Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>If they can ever locate the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-a-black-box-can-tell-us-about-missing-flight-mh370-25330">data recorders from MH370</a> that would go a long way to solving the mystery of what happened to the flight. But if they can’t find the recorders, then investigators would have to rely on what other debris that might come ashore in the coming weeks.</p>
<p>No doubt searchers will be heartened by this find if it is proven to be a part of MH370. Many of the assumptions and modelling decisions have been validated, at least in part. They are searching in the right ocean.</p>
<p>But as the search moves closer to the point where the entire designated search area has been fully investigated, if the aircraft wreckage has still not been found, where to then?</p>
<p>Do you assume that the modelling is accurate and go back for another look, maybe using different techniques and technology, or do you look elsewhere? If so, where? The nature and location of any wreckage found in the coming weeks might help inform that decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The aircraft part found on an Indian ocean island is said to be from a Boeing 777 but the challenge now is to determine if the wreckage is from the missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370.Geoffrey Dell, Associate Professor/Discipline Leader Accident Investigation and Forensics, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/344912015-03-31T03:01:09Z2015-03-31T03:01:09ZAccident prevention should look at the big picture of what went wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76424/original/image-20150330-25053-1ksny1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A lifejacket won't save your life if you are not wearing it, says NSW Martime. But any accident investigation needs to ask more than just why a lifejacket was not being worn.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nswmaritime/6173974878/in/photostream/">Flickr/NSW Maritime</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Accidents, as we all know, happen. But unfortunately, the traditional approach to accident investigation is still blighted by root cause thinking. That’s despite the fact that it is now well known that there is never one thing wholly responsible for an accident.</p>
<p>There is no root cause. Accidents are caused by multiple interacting factors, and often even normal, commonly accepted behaviours play a role in adverse events. Root cause thinking ignores the complexity of accidents –- as well as the many factors that contribute to them. </p>
<p>On top of this, and despite best intentions, there is a tendency for investigations to focus on those individuals close to the event, such as the pilots, drivers or ship captains. </p>
<p>But accidents can often arise from the decisions and actions of all actors within the system including regulators, CEOs, managers, supervisors and front-line workers. Often these seemingly unconnected decisions occur years before the event itself.</p>
<p>Even in the case of wilful violations, there is typically a myriad of interacting factors that enabled the incident to happen.</p>
<p>The responsibility for accident causation is therefore shared across the system in which it occurs. Yet, for various reasons, there is often a desire to blame an individual.</p>
<p>As a result, we tend to focus on and even punish individuals, and fix only parts of the system rather than the system itself. And broken systems invariably fail again.</p>
<h2>A better way to investigate</h2>
<p>So how can we do accident prevention better? The key lies in gathering and understanding appropriate data about accidents, as well as near-miss events where system failure was prevented. </p>
<p>Critically this data needs to describe the actors and contributory factors across the overall system along with the interactions that cause hazardous situations and shape behaviour.</p>
<p>Organisations need to continuously collect and analyse such data so they can understand what the systemic problems are that create unsafe performance – and they need the right tools to help them do this. </p>
<p>The need for incident reporting and analysis has been well known for some time now. But the systems adopted are often not underpinned by an understanding of accidents and how they unfold.</p>
<p>The data they collect doesn’t tell the whole story. As mentioned, there is a focus on a root cause or the individual deemed to be responsible, overlooking important factors that play a role.</p>
<h2>Taking action</h2>
<p>Thankfully in some areas, organisations are taking the steps to build appropriate data collection and analysis systems. And these steps are occurring in an area that you wouldn’t normally associate with paradigm shifts in accident investigation –- the led outdoor activity sector.</p>
<p>This includes organisations operating under the banners of outdoor education, school camps, adventure tourism and outdoor recreation.</p>
<p>These are activities where there are some obvious (and some not so obvious) risks to deal with to make sure people are safe. But accidents do happen and examples of recent major incidents in this sector include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10877286">Mangatepopo gorge incident</a> in New Zealand in 2008 in which six Year 12 students and their teacher drowned during a gorge walking activity</p></li>
<li><p>12 year old Kyle Vassil’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-27/school-camp-safety-review-after-catholic-schoolboy-drowning/5843858">drowning</a> in 2010 in a waterhole while on school camp at Alpine Ash Mountain Retreat in Toolangi, Victoria.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Applying systems thinking to both events shows clearly that there were <a href="https://uploadsproject.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/mangatepopo-methods-comparison-accepted-version.pdf">multiple contributory factors involved</a>.</p>
<p>But there was still a tendency to focus on the individuals overseeing the activities to understand why the <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/teachers-didnt-realise-kyle-vassil-was-drowning-at-school-camp-in-victoria-says-coroner/story-fni0fee2-1227103492659">events occurred</a>.</p>
<h2>A trial run</h2>
<p>Over the past four years, the led outdoor activity sector has embarked on a major research program involving the development of an accident reporting and learning system. This collects data about what happened across the overall led outdoor activity system, rather than just what those directly involved in the incident did wrong.</p>
<p>The research has led to the recent implementation of Understanding and Preventing Led Outdoor Accidents Data System (<a href="http://uploadsproject.org/">UPLOADS</a>).</p>
<p>UPLOADS enables organisations to report and analyse injury and near-miss incidents, providing the capability to collect and analyse data on the system-wide causes of incidents.</p>
<p>It covers factors relating to government policy and funding, regulation, schools, parents, company management and supervision, as well as factors relating to workers, equipment and the environment.</p>
<p>In addition, UPLOADS enables identification of the relationships between contributory factors. This allows it to go beyond what is typically captured by incident reporting systems, providing a far greater description of incidents. </p>
<h2>The results so far</h2>
<p>Close to 50 organisations are now using UPLOADS – and the outputs so far are compelling. It tells us that there are many things outside of the participants, instructors, and the activity environment that contribute to accidents.</p>
<p>For example, our analyses of the first UPLOADS dataset found a complex web of contributory factors related to schools, parents, standards and codes of practice, regulatory bodies, government agencies, organisational culture, training, program design and activity centre management and supervisors.</p>
<p>In addition, it has identified important relationships, such as the way in which centre management and organisational culture influences the type and condition of equipment and ultimately how participants use it during activities, which in turn can lead to accidents. </p>
<p>For example, this tells us that using a lifejacket incorrectly or not at all is a symptom of problems in the overall system rather than the result of bad behaviour by participants.</p>
<p>The data allow us to fully understand accident causation, which in turn enables appropriate countermeasures to be developed. In the example above, the data tells organisations to focus on improving organisational culture and policies around equipment purchasing, maintenance, training and usage rather than just by buying new equipment and telling people off for not using it properly.</p>
<p>The data provide a watershed moment for the sector. There is no doubt that continued use of the system will reveal other factors related to procedures, risk management systems, policy and legislation, managers, CEOs, auditing, regulation and so on. The list goes on and on.</p>
<h2>A wider use in accident prevention</h2>
<p>Accidents in this led outdoor activity sector are a complex beast, just as they are in any sector.</p>
<p>In future it is hoped that similar systems will be developed in other safety critical sectors such as road, rail, aviation and workplaces generally. This, in our opinion, is the key to better accident prevention.</p>
<p>Accident prevention is something that we are not yet masters of. Moving forward it is critical that organisations begin to design and implement appropriate data systems that will support, rather than hinder, accident prevention efforts.</p>
<p>Without the big picture that such systems provide, the initiatives produced through accident prevention activities will continue to have only marginal effects. Systems thinking in accident prevention needs systems data.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Salmon receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natassia Goode does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When accidents happen we need to look at the real cause of why things went wrong instead of just looking for someone to blame.Paul Salmon, Professor, Human Factors, University of the Sunshine CoastNatassia Goode, Research Fellow, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/362012015-01-13T19:30:07Z2015-01-13T19:30:07ZAnswers needed from the flight recorders of Air Asia flight QZ8501<p>Now the flight data recorders from Air Asia flight QZ8501 have been found investigators have a chance to find out what really brought down the aircraft with 162 passengers and crew on board.</p>
<p>Divers have recovered the flight data recorder which records around 2,000 parameters from the aircraft systems, such as airspeed, altitude, heading, flight control positions, engine data and many more. They are also <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-13/divers-retrieve-airasia-cockpit-voice-recorder/6014360">reported</a> to have located and recovered the cockpit voice recorder which records the last two hours of voice communications and, via a cockpit area microphone, other noises in the cockpit. </p>
<p>The discovery and recovery of these <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-black-box-an-australian-invention-that-nearly-didnt-happen-25435">black boxes</a> marks the first major breakthrough in the search effort since the flight QZ8501 <a href="http://qz8501.airasia.com/28-dec-2014/index.html">disappeared on December 28, 2014</a>, en route from Surabaya in Indonesia to Singapore.</p>
<h2>Questions with no answers</h2>
<p>Since the initial disappearance there has been much speculation as to what happened to the flight. The last known communication between air traffic controllers and the pilots was their <a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/airasia-flight-qz8501-how-other-planes-dodged-the-storm/story-fnizu68q-1227169713074">request to climb</a> to avoid some bad weather which was denied by air traffic controllers. Soon after the aircraft disappeared.</p>
<p>Air Asia <a href="http://qz8501.airasia.com/12-jan-2015/index.html">said earlier this week</a> that 48 bodies have so far been recovered from the Java Sea with 34 identified. Wreckage from the Airbus A320-200 is also still being recovered.</p>
<p>Investigators will be keenly interested in what the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder will reveal. Their recovery was vital.</p>
<p>Until now the available information coming from the investigation supported many diverse scenarios which could have led to the loss of the aircraft, passengers and crew. Some theories were more plausible than others but none were supported by conclusive facts.</p>
<h2>The data analysis begins</h2>
<p>If the recorders are undamaged, it should only take a few days or even less for the data to be downloaded from the recorders and analysed.</p>
<p>Sophisticated computer modelling programs can use the recorded data to provide real time computer generated video images of what took place. This will show in detail all the progress of the final stages of the flight, readings of all the relevant flight instrumentation, flight control movements, all synthesised with what was said on the flight deck. Investigators will get a very clear picture of what took place. </p>
<p>Analysis of the wreckage as it’s recovered from the sea floor may also help shed light on what happened. The distribution of the wreckage may give an indication of whether there was any inflight break up, separation of any flight critical components or whether the aircraft entered the water intact. Analysis of any structural failures and other damage will also help provide evidence of what happened.</p>
<p>Of course, the investigation will then need to focus on looking for evidence of why whatever happened, happened. But this may not be as easy as it sounds. </p>
<p>Let’s assume that the aircraft entered icing conditions – as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/ice-may-have-caused-airasia-engine-damage-says-indonesias-weather-agency-20150104-12hry9.html">has been speculated</a> – and ice formation adversely affected the air pressure detection capability of the pitot heads, used to measure air speed.</p>
<p>If that were the case, the ice will have melted long before the investigators have an opportunity to inspect the systems recovered from the wreckage. So, investigators will have to carefully analyse the flight recorder data looking for deviations in those critical systems which are fed with signals from the pitot heads which may be consistent with what could be expected if icing of the pitot heads had occurred. Icing may also become more of a focus if no other malfunctions or contradictory evidence is found.</p>
<p>Of course this is just one of many possible causation scenarios which the already available information supports. Forensic analysis of all evidence available to the investigators may reveal something different entirely.</p>
<h2>Questions of passenger flight safety?</h2>
<p>The crash of Air Asia flight QZ8501 comes after a difficult year for the passenger airline industry.</p>
<p>The search is still on going for the missing Malaysia <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-mh370">flight MH370</a>. That aircraft departed Kuala Lumpur in Malyasia on March 8, 2014, and was en route to Beijing,but the search effort is now concentrated in deep water <a href="http://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370.aspx">off the coast of Western Australia</a>.</p>
<p>How the Malaysia Airlines’ Boeing 777 with 239 passengers and crew on board may have gone down there is still a mystery.</p>
<p>Then on July 17, 2014, there was the downing of Malaysia Airlines <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-mh17">flight MH17</a> which had not long before left Amsterdam airport with 283 passengers and 15 crew on board, heading for Kualar Lumpur airport in Malaysia. Evidence from the wreckage suggests the Boeing 777 was brought down by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/damage-to-the-cockpit-gives-a-clue-to-loss-of-flight-mh17-31513">missile</a> as it flew over troubled areas in the Ukraine.</p>
<p>So the crash of another aircraft is only going to raise concerns over passenger airline safety. But how unusual is the flight QZ8501 case?</p>
<h2>The safest part of flying</h2>
<p>Ordinarily, airliner accidents during the cruise stages of flights are the most infrequent, as the the <a href="http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf">Boeing Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents 1959 to 2013</a>, published in August 2014 shows.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68820/original/image-20150113-28434-1ldc455.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Note that only 10% fatalities occur during the main cruise period of flights from 2004 through to 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf">Boeing's Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, Worldwide Operations 1959 -- 2013.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So the recent spate of mid flight crashes, if you take MH17 and MH370 into consideration (even though they may both yet be confirmed to be due to acts of terrorism, they still represent failures of the overall aviation safety arrangements), is really atypical of the experience of the past ten years where only one in ten accidents have occurred mid flight.</p>
<p>The Boeing report also shows that 57% of the average flight time is in the cruise phase of flight – where only 10% of fatal accidents have occurred – against 16% of time for take-off and climb (22% of accidents), 26% of time on descent and approach (33% of accidents) and significantly 1% of time on landings (25% of accidents) which is clearly the highest risk time.</p>
<p>Despite these high profile accidents, 2014 had the least number of fatal accidents in the previous ten years although the number of actual <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/29/travel/aviation-year-in-review/">casualties was high</a>. </p>
<p>Over that same ten year period, the number of flights flown annually by the worlds airlines has steadily grown. </p>
<p>Airlines globally can statistically be shown as providing the safest form of transport of all. That enviable record has been won by ensuring that the lessons are systematically learned from those accidents which do occur.</p>
<p>Accordingly, it is vital that the industry learns everything it can from QZ8501, MH370 and MH17 to inform future improvements in the aviation safety system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now the flight data recorders from Air Asia flight QZ8501 have been found investigators have a chance to find out what really brought down the aircraft with 162 passengers and crew on board. Divers have…Geoffrey Dell, Associate Professor/Discipline Leader Accident Investigation and Forensics, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/340032014-11-17T04:16:12Z2014-11-17T04:16:12ZWe need to prevent further jockey deaths in horse racing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64350/original/kvtbkhcg-1415774016.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A reduction over the years in rider deaths in horse racing means further tragedies could be prevented.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gowestphoto/3921760653">Flickr/Tsutomu Takasu</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Horse racing claimed the lives of three jockeys recently – two in Australia and one in the United States – and some prominent industry professionals have openly claimed that deaths in racing are part of the sport. But changes made in the past to the racing industry have led to a reduction in jockey deaths – and more could be done now. </p>
<p>The latest tragedy was <a href="http://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/racing-industry-in-shock-over-death-of-jockey-caitlin-forrest/story-fndpqu3p-1227092114604">young jockey Caitlin Forrest</a> who died last month in hospital after after a four-horse fall at Murray Bridge, in South Australia. This followed only a day after <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-14/jockey-carly-mae-pye-dies-in-hospital-after-fall-at-rockhampton/5813534">jockey Carly-Mae Pye’s</a> life support was turned off after falling during a jump out at Callaghan Park in Queensland.</p>
<p>Thoroughbred Racing South Australia chief executive Jim Watters was quoted soon after Forrest’s death <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/inquiry-launched-after-jockey-caitlin-forrest-dies-after-tragic-fall-at-murray-bridge-gold-cup-race-meeting/story-fnii5yv4-1227091624596">saying</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Racing is one of those sports where there are dangers […] early indications are it was just a tragic accident.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Former jockey John Letts, commenting after Forrest’s death and that of other Australian jockeys, <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/25278077/racing-safety-in-the-spotlight/">added</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] we just can’t stop it, it’s something that’s just going to happen.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the last 15 years of my time in the racing industry I heard similar sentiments from many others. While they may be sympathetic to jockeys and their family and friends, this attitude does not encourage much-needed change. Rather, it dangerously fosters a sense of complacency that these tragic incidents cannot be prevented.</p>
<h2>The numbers on rider deaths</h2>
<p>It is true that falls and injuries to jockeys are common with about one fall for every 240 race rides, and one-third of those falls resulting in a substantive injury in Australia.</p>
<p>It is also true that the sport is considered to be one of the more <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2009/190/2/incidence-race-day-jockey-falls-australia-2002-2006">dangerous occupations</a>, stabilising at about 1.4 deaths per year nationally. Racing has certainly become significantly safer than it was 50 years ago.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64532/original/hpc7k4rq-1415929014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">100 years of jockey fatalities in Australia, 1915 to 2014. The red line shows the average of 1.4 deaths per year over the past 50 years or so.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.njt.org.au/the-fallen/full-list.aspx">Data source: Australian Jockeys' Association, The Fallen</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This in itself is proof that improvements to protective equipment and policies and procedures, among other things, can contribute to reduced rates of jockey falls, injuries and fatalities.</p>
<p>But stewards’ inquiries into individual incidents are unlikely to result in findings that are useful. Rather it is the collation and analysis of all of these incidents that will help us to detect patterns in the data that may lead to the identification of modifiable risk factors.</p>
<h2>Are female jockeys more at risk?</h2>
<p>There are multiple factors that contribute to deaths in racing, but does the research support the recent speculation by some that there is a higher risk of injury to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/four-in-14-months-why-are-so-many-female-jockeys-dying-on-during-horse-races/story-fnii5s3x-1227101461978">female jockeys</a>?</p>
<p>It is the case that female jockeys have been found to have a marginally higher fall rate than male jockeys, but this finding was confined only to female jockeys who rode horses younger than four years of age in open and restricted races.</p>
<p>There was <a href="http://oem.bmj.com/content/67/10/693.short">no increase</a> in fall rates for female jockeys riding in other, more common race grades. Furthermore, a study of <a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/early/2012/04/04/injuryprev-2011-040255.short">apprentice and early-career jockeys</a> found no significant differences in fall rates between males and females.</p>
<p>The piece of science missing here is the absence of medically-assessed outcomes of racing falls. In a yet-to-be published study, by our team at the Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, we found there were no significant differences between males and females in regards to the average costs, and the incidence of, flat racing jockey insurance and workers’ compensation claims per 100 falls. </p>
<p>Just to be clear, a jockey’s sex has not been proved to be a major risk factor.</p>
<p>Having said that, sex of the jockey must not be the focus in analysing the recent incidents because both Australian jockey deaths mentioned above were a result of the horse they were riding <a href="https://au.sports.yahoo.com/news/article/-/25271139/gender-no-factor-in-jockey-fatalities-arb/">breaking down</a>. A horse breakdown is not something the jockey can control. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://ojs.sagepub.com/content/1/1/2325967113492625.full">recent study</a> funded by the California Horse Racing Board identified catastrophic injury or sudden death of the horse as the most common reason for a jockey fall in Thoroughbred (29%) and Quarter Horse (44%) racing.</p>
<p>About two-thirds of such falls result in injury of the jockey, and this proportion is significantly more than for jockey falls caused by other reasons.</p>
<p>This is likely because when a horse sustains a catastrophic injury or sudden death and collapses, the jockey falls with the horse and is thus at greater risk of suffering a serious injury – while also posing a threat to following horses and their jockeys. </p>
<h2>Preventing the injuries</h2>
<p>Horse breakdowns are preventable. In <a href="http://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/vorl/research_programs/musculoskeletal_disease_injuries/racehorse_injury_prevention.cfm">Californian postmortem studies</a>, about 90% of racehorse breakdowns have shown evidence of pre-existing pathology related to the fatal injury.</p>
<p>In Australia there is also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-trainers-keep-horses-in-winning-form-and-injury-free-33253">significant research</a> already being undertaken on risk factors for racehorse injury, and improvements in this area will reduce jockey injuries and deaths. </p>
<p>Other factors that have been identified as contributing to an increased rate of jockey falls and injuries include:</p>
<ul>
<li>jockey inexperience, especially when combined with riding less accomplished horses</li>
<li>faster/ drier track conditions</li>
<li>shorter distance races</li>
<li>bad weather conditions.</li>
</ul>
<p>Interestingly, large field sizes such as that for the Melbourne Cup are not associated with an increase in jockey falls.</p>
<p>Only with further research and the determination to improve the sport’s safety, will we identify and implement <a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/early/2014/09/12/injuryprev-2014-041223.short">evidence-based strategies</a> to improve racing in the future and ultimately reduce the risks for both jockey and horse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Peta L. Hitchens has previously received funding from the California Horse Racing Board, WorkCover Tasmania, TOTE Tasmania, Betfair Australasia, and Tasmanian Thoroughbred Racing Council (now Tasmanian Racing Board). </span></em></p>Horse racing claimed the lives of three jockeys recently – two in Australia and one in the United States – and some prominent industry professionals have openly claimed that deaths in racing are part of…Peta Lee Hitchens MVPHMgt PhD, Researcher, Animal Welfare & Epidemiology, Swedish University of Agricultural SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/269102014-06-10T20:28:33Z2014-06-10T20:28:33ZAnother Titanic change is needed to save more lives at sea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49975/original/csc4jx8c-1401691489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The last lifeboat successfully launched from the RMS Titanic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://research.archives.gov/description/278338">National Archives</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How has our approach to saving lives at sea changed since the tragedy of the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/the-titanic">RMS Titanic</a> in which <a href="http://www.lr.org/en/_images/12-8363_18-titanic.pdf">1,523 of the 2,228 people</a> she was carrying died a century ago? </p>
<p>Surprisingly, not much.</p>
<p>Only this April the South Korean ferry Sewol capsized <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/south-korea-ferry-disaster-civilian-divers-scouring-the-sewol-wreckage-are-being-paid-by-the-body-presidential-office-suggests-9435932.html">claiming 288 lives</a> so far, many high school students.</p>
<p>Inadequate provision of lifeboats was a key factor in the Titanic disaster in 1912, leading directly to significant changes in the requirements for passenger ships.</p>
<p>Fast forward to 2014 and lifeboats remain central to safety at sea. Yet, it was reported that <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-27120853">only two lifeboats</a> were launched before the Sewol capsized and sank. How could this be the case?</p>
<h2>Here we go again</h2>
<p>The fate of the Sewol has unfortunate yet strong echoes of earlier maritime casualties, from the demise of the Titanic through to the grounding of the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/costa-concordia">Costa Concordia</a> in January 2012.</p>
<p>It seems the fundamental approach to saving lives at sea has changed little. A key element remains that all efforts should be made to keep a stricken ship afloat, and keep passengers and crew aboard such that the ship in effect acts as its <a href="http://www.imo.org/MediaCentre/HotTopics/passengership/Pages/default.aspx">own lifeboat</a>.</p>
<p>While efforts to prevent ships from sinking are not to be derided, if nothing else the Titanic experience illustrates the fact that no ship is unsinkable.</p>
<h2>Call that ship a lifeboat?</h2>
<p>The trouble with the “ship as its own lifeboat” approach is that this attitude tends to lead the crew to order passengers to stay on board and to delay the order to abandon ship until too late. Here the role of the Master, especially in a crisis, is crucial as evacuation can only proceed on his or her order.</p>
<p>The problem here is that once a ship heels significantly from the vertical then launching lifeboats, traditionally accomplished via lines suspended from davits or crane-like lowering devices, becomes extremely hazardous, if not impossible. This was the case for both the Sewol and Costa Concordia.</p>
<p>The only reason no more than 32 lives were lost in the Costa Concordia accident was down to luck – the vessel was grounded which prevented it from fully capsizing, unlike the Sewol ferry.</p>
<h2>More eggs in one basket</h2>
<p>Traditional approaches to safety of life at sea are likely to face increasingly scrutiny as the trend continues to build ever-bigger cruise liners which resemble nothing less than floating cities.</p>
<p>At the time of writing the largest such vessel is the 360m-long <a href="http://www.royalcaribbean.com.au/findacruise/ships/class/ship/home.do?dest=&shipClassCode=OA&shipCode=AL&br=R">MS Allure of the Seas</a>. It’s roughly the size of four Titanics rolled into one ship and capable of accommodating approximately 6,300 passengers and a crew of almost 2,400 – that’s almost 9,000 people in total.</p>
<p>The cruise industry is also increasingly venturing into relatively uncharted waters with the growth of adventure cruising, notably in polar waters. These waters can be extremely hazardous to navigate because of the presence of ice.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49978/original/kss92zpk-1401694736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Passenger cruise ships increasingly exploring remote regions such as the Antarctic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mschutt/2246084832">Flickr/Matt S</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of these passengers are also towards the senior end of the age spectrum. The Australian cruise industry association’s <a href="http://www.cruising.org.au/downloads/CLIA-Statistics-Report-AU-2012.pdf">latest figures</a> show more than half (53%) of Australian cruise passengers are over 50 years of age, almost a third (31%) aged 61 and over, and one in eight (12%) is over 70.</p>
<p>The potential for large numbers of elderly survivors to a shipping casualty in Polar waters adrift in open, or even covered, boats beyond the ready reach of search and rescue services is nightmarish.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50216/original/9wyy4sjz-1401858982.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The age of passengers on Australian cruises – more than 50% over the age of 50 (2012 figures).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cruising.org.au/downloads/CLIA-Statistics-Report-AU-2012.pdf">Cruise Lines International Association (Australasia)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The potential for disaster has been well illustrated over the years by the <a href="http://www.cruiseshipsinking.com/">multiple accidents</a> involving cruise ships in polar waters such as the <a href="http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/news/explorer-sinks-antarctica.html">M/S Explorer</a> in November 2007, which struck an iceberg, capsized and sank.</p>
<p>Happily, other vessels were nearby off Peninsula Antarctica and the 154 passengers and crew were rescued.</p>
<p>But adventure cruising inevitably tends towards remote locations and thus waters where there is often poor to non-existent search and rescue capacity.</p>
<p>The International Maritime Organisation is developing a <a href="http://www.imo.org/MediaCentre/HotTopics/polar/Pages/default.aspx">Polar Code</a> detailing safety measures for ships operating in Polar waters but this is, as yet, <a href="http://www.imo.org/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Pages/16-msc-preview.aspx">not mandatory</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately there is no easy way to eliminate the most commonplace contributor to maritime accidents – human error. </p>
<h2>Time for a change in approach?</h2>
<p>That’s not to suggest that travelling by sea has not become far safer than once it was – it’s just that lifeboats remain a fundamental part of current safety regulations.</p>
<p>The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (<a href="http://www.imo.org/About/Conventions/ListOfConventions/Pages/International-Convention-for-the-Safety-of-Life-at-Sea-(SOLAS%29,-1974.aspx)">SOLAS</a> sets a minimum standard of enough lifeboats to be carried to accommodate at least 75% of those on board (37.5% on each side). Enough liferafts should be provided for the remainder. So far, so good.</p>
<p>But launching lifeboats can be a slow and cumbersome process, as well as one compromised as a result of a vessel listing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50210/original/3vw2rkmp-1401858121.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traditional lifeboats may be difficult to deploy in an accident.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/imo-un/7073771753/in/set-72157629443288006">Flickr/International Maritime Organisation</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An alternative option may be to change the emphasis towards the use of a new generation of large liferafts instead of lifeboats.</p>
<p>Indeed, some modern liferafts can be deployed remarkably swiftly, in 2-3 minutes, and provide for the evacuation of more than 100 people via aviation-style evacuation slides in 15 minutes on a single raft.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50212/original/jvzfmg3n-1401858229.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modern liferafts may offer a quicker way to safety off a sinking ship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/imo-un/6927691810/in/set-72157629443288006">Flickr/International Maritime Organisation</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>That said, in the event of any future accident at sea then – whether lifeboats or liferafts are in use – passengers also need to be marshalled on deck rather than being ordered below. With greater numbers of passengers involved, this is likely to be an increasingly challenging proposition.</p>
<p>In the cases of both the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p73E-bpEao4">Sewol</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16644074">Costa Concordia</a> passengers were ordered back to their cabins – spaces that swiftly became death-traps.</p>
<p>Rescue efforts on the Sewol ferry have already claimed the lives of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/30/south-korea-ferry-search-diver-dies">two divers</a> involved in trying to recover the bodies trapped inside.</p>
<h2>Cutting corners but at what cost?</h2>
<p>An underlying and systemic concern here is the significant and continuing pressures on the shipping industry to cut costs and therefore run the risk of compromising safety standards.</p>
<p>The potential consequences of any such corner-cutting can be disastrous. It can lead to minimal and poorly-trained and paid crews, ill-maintained ships and Masters under enormous pressure to minimise costs rather than to ensure safety. </p>
<p>Recent maritime accidents and their tragic consequences have underscored the abiding tension between technology and the frailties of human decision making. </p>
<p>Ultimately, there is no substitute for proper training and regular drills as well as safety regulations that are aligned to today’s shipping and passenger needs and that are then observed and enforced.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was co-authored with Dr John Mansell, Principal Maritime Advisor to Maritime New Zealand, and draws on his address on the occasion of the centenary of the loss of the Titanic, delivered April 2012 at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS), University of Wollongong.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive Schofield receives funding from the Australian Research Council as an ARC Future Fellow (FT100100990). </span></em></p>How has our approach to saving lives at sea changed since the tragedy of the RMS Titanic in which 1,523 of the 2,228 people she was carrying died a century ago? Surprisingly, not much. Only this April…Clive Schofield, Professor and Challenge Lead, Sustaining Coastal and Marine Zones, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/210902013-12-03T12:03:23Z2013-12-03T12:03:23ZPicking up the pieces after Glasgow’s helicopter disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36798/original/sj553sjm-1386064838.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Removing the debris is just the first step.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Milligan/PA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following any aircraft accident, the first priority has to be the rescue of injured people and the recovery of those who may be deceased. Inevitably, this may mean evidence that could be used to investigate the accident may be damaged or destroyed. In the case of the police helicopter accident in Glasgow, this will be a particular challenge.</p>
<p>Under Scottish law, the police have primacy at the accident site and will need to investigate the cause of the fatal accident on behalf of the Procurator Fiscal. This investigation will run in parallel with the technical investigation. Normally, if the police suspect a deliberate criminal act has been committed they will lead the investigation, assisted by the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) of the Department for Transport. If there is no reason to suspect a crime, the AAIB will lead the investigation.</p>
<p>The investigation will focus on all of the available evidence including the physical site, witness evidence and air traffic control recordings. As the aircraft was not carrying either a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10488533/Glasgow-helicopter-crash-no-mayday-call-from-pilot.html">cockpit voice recorder</a> or digital flight data recorder, flight recorder specialists will attempt to recover electronic information from the helicopter systems that may have non-volatile memory. This is often a long and painstaking process to avoid data loss during recovery.</p>
<p>Operations investigators will look at the pilot’s training and experience, and what type of flight was being conducted at the time of the accident. Engineering inspectors will look at the physical evidence to establish as much information as possible about the aircraft, such as whether the engines were producing power, whether the fuel was within specification and whether there were any mechanical faults which might have contributed to the accident. They will also examine the maintenance history of the helicopter to see whether that can provide useful information.</p>
<p>Aviation safety is extremely good. It’s important to remember that accidents are complex and rarely stem from a single cause. In general, crucial systems are designed with redundancy so that a single failure will not result in the loss of the aircraft. On a helicopter like this, that may be as simple as making fuel feeder tanks different sizes so that both engines cannot run out of fuel at the same time or as complex as having independent controller computers comparing results and reacting to any discrepancies.</p>
<p>Investigators will also try to corroborate any evidence they find rather than relying on a single source to guide the investigation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36801/original/p78dcwq4-1386067230.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36801/original/p78dcwq4-1386067230.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36801/original/p78dcwq4-1386067230.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36801/original/p78dcwq4-1386067230.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36801/original/p78dcwq4-1386067230.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36801/original/p78dcwq4-1386067230.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36801/original/p78dcwq4-1386067230.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Looking out for the bereaved is a crucial part of any investigation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Milligan/PA</span></span>
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<p>There is a considerable amount of work to be done in the investigation before we can begin to understand the possible cause of this accident, and the investigation may well take many months or even years to complete. But as the investigation progresses, if any information is discovered that has flight safety implications for the rest of the fleet this will be relayed back to the aviation community as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>Alongside this, the AAIB will talk to families of the deceased and keep them informed of the progress of the investigation. They will also try to answer their questions where possible, in order to try and help the bereaved deal with their loss as best they can.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Following any aircraft accident, the first priority has to be the rescue of injured people and the recovery of those who may be deceased. Inevitably, this may mean evidence that could be used to investigate…Matthew Greaves, Head, Safety and Accident Investigation Centre, Cranfield UniversityGraham Braithwaite, Head of Air Transport Department, Cranfield UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/159712013-07-11T13:27:47Z2013-07-11T13:27:47ZAfter Quebec, what’s the future for Keystone XL?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27251/original/gzsjq9cj-1373472859.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Grangemouth refinery: keeping the home fire burning.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew MillJigan/PA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The runaway train of 73 oil tankers that derailed and exploded in the small town of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23250358">Lac-Megantic</a> in Quebec, Canada last week left 15 dead, around 50 missing, and shows how dangerous transporting oil can be.</p>
<p>An alternative to rail transport is the proposed, highly contested <a href="http://keystone-xl.com/">Keystone XL pipeline</a> which would transport oil derived from Canadian tar sands in Alberta to refineries along the US Gulf Coast. The Obama administration has yet to decide whether to approve it.</p>
<p>That pipeline could reduce US dependence on foreign oil. But tar sands are a particularly carbon-intensive source of fuel, with the potential for leaks and spills from the pipeline along its proposed route through the heart of the US. Any decision will create winners and losers – either in the oil industry or environmental interests.</p>
<p>This whole debate would be unnecessary under a carbon tax or cap-and-trade policy that put a proper price on carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions. If oil companies had to pay the true social costs of producing gasoline, then they would have to charge a price high enough to cover not only production but also environmental costs. Then if consumers are willing to pay for that gasoline, they’re welcome to it. Each ton of carbon dioxide emissions is estimated to impose about $20 of costs on the rest of society, which would raise the cost of conventional gasoline by about twenty US cents per gallon.</p>
<p>The Keystone project to transport tar sands oil by pipeline means overcoming three problems. Because it is thick and viscous, the tar sand oil must first be diluted to a liquid before it can be transported. This requires additional energy and generates about 12% more CO<sub>2</sub> emissions than conventional petrol. Second, this process generates huge amounts of semi-solid waste for which disposal is uncertain. Additionally, spills from the pipeline might damage ecosystems along its route - with particular concerns about pollution of Nebraska’s vast <a href="http://www.hpwd.com/aquifers/ogallala-aquifer">Ogallala Aquifer</a>, an important water source.</p>
<p>Without paying these pollution costs, oil companies can make huge profits if the Keystone pipeline is built; environmentalists get a windfall if the Keystone is cancelled. It’s “winner take all”. But if oil companies did have to pay environmental costs, then Obama could just leave it up to oil companies: make them pay for all that pollution and then let them choose whether and how to use the tar sands. But without those payments to cover the environmental costs, we can’t really know if it’s a good idea or not.</p>
<p>Three recent events have raised the stakes. President Obama’s “Climate Action Plan” <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2013/06/analysis_of_obama_s_climate_plan_carbon_dioxide_soot_coal_and_keystone_xl.html">speech</a> includes imposing emissions limits on power plants. Mentioning Keystone XL by name, Obama linked the pipeline not just to the environmental problems on its route but also to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. But while <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/25/remarks-president-climate-change">he stated</a> the project would not go ahead if it could be shown that greenhouse gas emissions would rise, he was vague about the “burden of proof” required.</p>
<p>Proponents say Obama’s requirement has already been met. Seeing, they argue, as tar sands will definitely be used one way or the other rather than left in the ground, pipeline transportation via Keystone will be the most carbon-effective method. Thus, according to them, the Keystone reduces emissions.</p>
<p>Just days after Obama’s speech came a decision in British Columbia on Canada’s west coast to reject the “<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/bc-says-no-to-northern-gateway-on-concerns-over-oil-spills/article12288098/">Northern Gateway</a>” pipeline, which would have provided an alternative to Keystone and brought tar sands oil from Alberta to the Pacific Ocean. That plan was scuttled by concerns about oil spills through the pristine British Columbian forests, the problems of building an oil tanker port on the beautiful Pacific coastline, and other subsequent problems.</p>
<p>The third event, of course, is the tragedy in Quebec. Railroad transport of oil hardly seems better than pipeline transport. Another alternative now drawing attention is to build a pipeline all the way <a href="http://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/alberta-premier-touts-west-east-pipeline-project-in-new-brunswick-1.1315319">from Alberta to the Atlantic</a>. You have to give those Alberta oil interests some credit for persistence.</p>
<p>Ultimately, those tar sands can stay in the ground. After all, one policy to reduce global warming is to “sequester” atmospheric carbon by locking it into growing trees, reducing deforestation, or using <a href="http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/climateChange/CCS/home.html">carbon capture technology</a> to store it deep underground. A shortcut route to sequestering carbon deep underground is to leave it there in the first place. Technology may advance fast enough to provide cleaner alternative fuels anyway, and the future introduction of a carbon tax or permit system might make tar sands too expensive to be viable.</p>
<p>Until we price the true cost of carbon and pollutants into our economy with a carbon price-per-ton, we prevent the market from doing what it does best. Without that, we allow gross profiteering in the oil and gas industry while leaving taxpayers to foot the bill.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Fullerton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The runaway train of 73 oil tankers that derailed and exploded in the small town of Lac-Megantic in Quebec, Canada last week left 15 dead, around 50 missing, and shows how dangerous transporting oil can…Don Fullerton, Gutsgell Professor of Finance, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.