tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/andrew-hastie-19535/articlesAndrew Hastie – The Conversation2019-12-09T02:38:51Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1285452019-12-09T02:38:51Z2019-12-09T02:38:51ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Andrew Hastie on foreign influence, security and veteran mental health<p>Chinese government influence and interference has been a contentious issue in Australia politics in the past year. </p>
<p>Weighing up concerns about <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-27/labor-staffer-tells-icac-he-was-asked-to-count-bag-full-of-cash/11453344">foreign money in state and federal campaigns</a>, candidates’ direct relationships with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/who-is-mp-gladys-liu/11528352">arms of the Chinese Communist Party</a> and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/defecting-chinese-spy-offers-information-trove-to-australian-government-20191122-p53d1l.html">defection of a Chinese spy operating within Australia</a>, against the fragile trade relationship we have with our largest export market has been one of the more difficult topics for both major parties.</p>
<p>Andrew Hastie, Liberal member for the seat of Canning, is one of the most outspoken government members on the issue of foreign interference. </p>
<p>He’s used his position as a backbencher – and as chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security – to speak openly about his concerns and what he sees as the expansion of “revisionist” countries trying to “remake the world order … pushing out to secure their economic and strategic influence beyond their geographical borders”. </p>
<p>He also talks about why he thinks it would be untenable to have security clearance for every member of parliament, the role of the media in scrutinising candidates, and concerns about mental health among returned veterans.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, Andrew Hastie speaks with Michelle Grattan about growing concerns over Chinese influence in Australian politics, security clearances for politicians and the mental health of veterans.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1272222019-11-18T04:06:43Z2019-11-18T04:06:43ZPaul Keating attacks media for ‘pious belchings’ over China<p>Former prime minister Paul Keating has launched a scathing attack on the Australian media for its coverage of China, denouncing “the nominally pious belchings of ‘do-gooder’ journalists” who live on leaks from security agencies.</p>
<p>Keating told the Australian newspaper’s strategic forum on Monday: “The Australian media has been recreant in its duty to the public in failing to present a balanced picture of the rise, legitimacy and importance of China”.</p>
<p>Instead it preferred “to traffic in side plays dressed up with cosmetics of sedition and risk”.</p>
<p>His attack comes amid debate about <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinese-embassy-says-liberal-critics-hastie-and-paterson-should-repent-127182">China’s refusal of visas to two members of federal parliament</a>, Andrew Hastie and senator James Paterson, who have been strong critics of the Beijing’s regime.</p>
<p>Current relations between the Chinese and Australian governments have been strained for some time, with a range of tension points, including the issue of Chinese interference in Australian politics and universities and the government’s response.</p>
<p>In his speech Keating once again had in his sights what he sees as the sway of security agencies in foreign policy especially on China, a point he made forcefully before the election.</p>
<p>“What passes for the foreign policy of Australia lacks any sense of strategic realism,” he said. “The whispered word ‘communism’ of old, is now being replaced with the word ‘China’.</p>
<p>"The reason we have ministries and cabinets is that a greater and collective wisdom can be brought to bear on complex topics – and particularly on movements of tectonic importance.</p>
<p>"This process is not working in Australia, ” he said.</p>
<p>“The subtleties of foreign policy and the elasticity of diplomacy are being supplanted by the phobias of a group of national security agencies which are now effectively running the foreign policy of the country.</p>
<p>"And the media has been up to its ears in it.”</p>
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<p>He targeted particularly The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age for their China coverage.</p>
<p>“Drops to journalists by the [security] agencies about another ‘seditious’ publication in a particular university or the hijinks of another Chinese entrepreneur is passed off as the evil bearing of the Chinese State.”</p>
<p>He said he did not know how Scott Morrison and the government permitted this state of affairs.</p>
<p>Keating said big states were “rude and nasty,” and referenced instances of American behaviour. “But that does not mean we can afford not to deal with them – whether it be the United States or China”.</p>
<p>“It is the national interest and its long run trajectory which should guide our hand and not the nominally pious belchings of ‘do-gooder’ journalists who themselves live on leaks of agencies unfit to divine a national pathway.</p>
<p>"Organisations which lack comprehension as to magnitude or moment or the subtleties and demands of a dynamic international landscape.”</p>
<p>Keating said it was in Asia’s interests, including Australia’s interests, that the US remain engaged in the region.</p>
<p>“Closer US political and commercial links with the countries of the region should help establish a web of self-reinforcing, cooperative ties which over time, should assuage Chinese concerns that a structure is being built with the express purpose of Chinese strategic containment.</p>
<p>"Indeed, such a cooperative structure should encourage China to participate in the region rather than seek to dominate it.</p>
<p>"We want a region which gives China the space to participate but not dominate.</p>
<p>"Australia, for its part, should be actively involved in the development of such structures, while being wary of being caught up in a policy by the United States, should the United States come to the conclusion, that the rise of China is broadly incompatible with its strategic interests.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinese-australia-relations-may-not-be-toxic-but-they-do-need-to-keep-warming-up-113545">Chinese-Australia relations may not be 'toxic', but they do need to keep warming up</a>
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<p>Keating said President Trump had no appetite for a military skirmish with China – which was good news – but he would not be setting a new international model.</p>
<p>“At the moment the current model is in serious decline. Global institutions are crumbling. Look at the WTO. The global system is under stress.</p>
<p>"And regional institutions are being marginalised into the bargain. For instance, the President did not attend the recent East Asia Summit. He did not even direct his Secretary of State to attend,” he said.</p>
<p>“On the broader point, whether the United States can assume it retains strategic guarantor status in East Asia is open to debate.</p>
<p>"What is not debatable is that we need the US as the balancing and conciliating power in the region.”</p>
<p>Keating said after this presidency the US would not return to being the state it was, regardless of whether the next president was Republican or a Democrat.</p>
<p>Not only was the US withdrawing from Asian arrangements – it was doing the same in Europe.</p>
<p>Australia would be left in the “deep blue sea” dealing with the great powers of the US and China over the next 30 years. </p>
<p>Unfortunately debate in Australia about China had degenerated, with two propositions contributing to this, Keating said. One was the unstated assumption that somehow China’s rise was illegitimate; the other was China was not a democracy. He dismissed the accuracy of the first and the relevance of the second.</p>
<p>China would be - was now - the predominant economic power in Asia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/outgoing-asio-head-hopes-for-greater-public-preparedness-to-defend-australian-sovereignty-122969">Outgoing ASIO head hopes for greater public preparedness to defend Australian sovereignty</a>
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<p>“That position will not be usurped by a non-Asian power, either economic or military.</p>
<p>"How does Australia respond to this?</p>
<p>"Is it to help divine and construct a set of arrangements which engages China but which also prevents China from dominating the region?</p>
<p>"Or do we seek to insulate or remove ourselves from this enormous shift in world economic power, by allowing our singular focus on the United States and our alliance with it to mark out our international personality?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127222/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid debate about China’s refusal of visa to two federal MPs, former PM Paul Keating denounced the media for ‘failing to present a balanced picture of the rise, legitimacy and importance of China’.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1226752019-08-29T12:40:49Z2019-08-29T12:40:49ZGrattan on Friday: Australia isn’t avoiding prodding the Chinese bear<p>It was a revealing line. Yang Hengjun, the Australian citizen arrested on suspicion of espionage, says an investigation officer from the Chinese Ministry of State Security told him that “Australia was dependent on China for its trade and economy, and Canberra wouldn’t help me, let alone rescue me”.</p>
<p>It was, one supposes, part of an attempt to break the prisoner. And of course it was completely untrue – in fact the Australian government is trying very hard and very visibly to secure Yang’s release.</p>
<p>But in a broader sense the official’s reference to the economic importance of China to Australia goes straight to the dilemma and the potential cost involved in what the Australian government is currently doing - and must do – in dealing with China.</p>
<p>The debate about China’s behaviour and influence has moved on even from earlier this month, when Trade Minister Simon Birmingham <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-not-in-the-national-interest-for-the-backbench-to-shut-up-about-china-121732">told backbenchers</a> to keep in mind the “national interest” in what they said. That followed <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-see-china-the-opportunities-and-the-threats-with-clear-eyes-20190807-p52eon.html">the blunt warning</a> by Andrew Hastie, chair of the parliamentary committee on intelligence and security, that Australia needed to pay more attention to the threat posed by China’s rise.</p>
<p>Australia at the moment seems very explicit in its responses to concerns about China.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yang-hengjun-case-a-pivotal-moment-in-increasingly-tense-australia-china-relationship-122460">Yang Hengjun case a pivotal moment in increasingly tense Australia-China relationship</a>
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<p>The willingness by the government to act is not new – in fact, the Turnbull government’s foreign interference legislation of 2018 may come to be seen as a turning point. But now Australia appears increasingly prepared to put aside when necessary the imperatives of diplomacy. Nor is it as reluctant as before to admit particular measures relate to China. </p>
<p>It has been especially strong in its language on behalf of Yang. The choice in such a situation can be complicated - between being forthright publicly or deciding a low key approach could be more effective, to say nothing of better for keeping relations smooth. In this instance the government has loudly called out the Chinese authorities’ actions. It is yet to be seen how things will end.</p>
<p>On another front, the government this week <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-boosts-scrutiny-over-chinese-targeting-of-university-sector-122484">announced a major move </a>in its efforts to deal with Chinese influence in Australian universities. A University Foreign Interference Taskforce will have representatives from the university sector, government security agencies and the education department.</p>
<p>The group will target Chinese cyber security penetration, and seek to protect research and intellectual property.</p>
<p>This prompts the question: how serious is the problem of Chinese interference in the university sector?</p>
<p>There is a spectrum of issues, from the open and arguable, through to the clandestine and illegal, such as the cyber attacks on the Australian National University. </p>
<p>With Chinese students 38% (153,000) of foreign students in higher education, Australian universities potentially have a high revenue vulnerability, if China reduced the flow.</p>
<p>Clive Hamilton, professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University and an expert on Chinese influence in Australia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/academic-urges-universities-to-get-out-from-under-the-shadow-of-beijing-122562">was highly critical</a> in a lecture on Wednesday of the university sector’s vice-chancellors.</p>
<p>“The corporatisation of the tertiary sector and the extraordinary dependence on revenue flows from China, coupled with a sustained and highly effective influence campaign directed at senior university executives, has meant that many have lost sight of the meaning of academic freedom,” Hamilton said.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-needs-to-take-control-of-china-policy-but-leave-room-for-dissent-121739">Morrison needs to take control of China policy - but leave room for dissent</a>
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<p>Another issue, which has come into plain sight with the recent clashes particularly at the University of Queensland over events in Hong Kong, is the influence Chinese authorities exercise over many students here.</p>
<p>Then there is the murky area of collaborations with researchers and institutions.</p>
<p>A paper put out by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute late last year authored by Alex Joske, one of ASPI’s analysts, highlighted that “China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is expanding its research collaboration with universities outside of China.</p>
<p>"This collaboration is highest in the Five Eyes countries, Germany and Singapore […]. Australia has been engaged in the highest level of PLA collaboration among Five Eyes countries per capita, at six times the level in the US.”</p>
<p>In the education field, it is not just the universities where China’s influence has become a growing worry. This month the NSW government announced it would end the Confucius Classroom program that has been running in 13 schools. The program, dealing with language and culture, has been funded by the Chinese government.</p>
<p>A review concluded: “The primary concern is the fact that the NSW Department of Education is the only government department in the world that hosts a Confucius Institute, and that this arrangement places Chinese government appointees inside a NSW government department.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-too-few-home-grown-experts-on-the-chinese-communist-party-thats-a-problem-121174">Australia has too few home-grown experts on the Chinese Communist Party. That's a problem</a>
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<p>On a totally different front, hearings at the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption this week <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-alp-secretary-suspended-after-revelations-about-huang-xiangmo-money-122563">produced a new episode</a> in the long running saga of the activities of Chinese property developer Huang Xiangmo. </p>
<p>ICAC heard evidence that Huang allegedly gave $100,000 in cash to NSW Labor in 2015, despite donations from property developers being illegal. The ALP covered up the donation. As a result of the evidence, the general secretary of the NSW party Kaila Murnain has been suspended.</p>
<p>Leaving aside alleged egregious illegalities, the wider point is that large donations (and Huang donated to both sides) are made in the hope of buying political access and influence.</p>
<p>Huang, who late last year was stripped of his permanent residency and banned from re-entering Australia on ASIO advice because of concern over his links with the Chinese Communist Party, has achieved the bizarre distinction of having contributed to the political downfall of two senior Labor figures. </p>
<p>Former senator Sam Dastyari’s dealings with Huang were central to events leading Dastyari quitting parliament. </p>
<p>This was influence of a sort the billionaire businessman hadn’t quite intended.</p>
<p>Anyone identifying the challenges Scott Morrison will face this term would have to put managing the China relationship high on the list. It’s a complicated juggle, trying to keep bilateral relations on course while protecting Australia’s sovereignty, as well as advancing its strategic interests through policies such as the Pacific step up.</p>
<p>Although it’s sometimes interpreted as responding to US pressure, basically it is Australia’s own national interest currently driving its toughening position.</p>
<p>Much as we might wish Australia-China relations could be kept on an even keel, and crucial as that might be for Australia’s economic wellbeing, the indications suggest the ups and downs will continue and may get rougher.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia is being very explicit in response to concerns about China at the moment, increasingly prepared to put aside the imperatives of diplomacy when necessary.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1217392019-08-13T20:13:56Z2019-08-13T20:13:56ZMorrison needs to take control of China policy - but leave room for dissent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287789/original/file-20190813-9931-ovqlw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Morrison government is at risk of losing control of China policy at the most critical time in Australian history.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Thomas Peter/pool</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Morrison government is at risk of losing control of China policy. Push-back from within its own ranks is complicating its ability to manage relations with Beijing. China policy is being subjected to a buffeting from hawkish backbenchers who would like to see Canberra adopt a harder line.</p>
<p>Let’s dispose first of straw man arguments about whether Liberal backbencher Andrew Hastie was within his rights to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-see-china-the-opportunities-and-the-threats-with-clear-eyes-20190807-p52eon.html">warn of threats to national sovereignty</a> by a rising China that is ruthlessly advancing its own interests.</p>
<p>Hastie has every right to raise alarms about China’s behaviour in his capacity as a member of parliament and chair of the joint parliamentary committee on intelligence and security. He was given opinion space in Nine newspapers to do so.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-not-in-the-national-interest-for-the-backbench-to-shut-up-about-china-121732">View from The Hill: It's not in the 'national interest' for the backbench to shut up about China</a>
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<p>However, he was ill-advised to use a reference to Nazi Germany to advance his argument about a China threat. Hastie may not have likened China to the Third Reich explicitly, but by referencing France’s inability to withstand German aggression he was implicitly making the link.</p>
<p>This is what he said:</p>
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<p>The West once believed that economic liberalisation would naturally lead to democratisation in China. This was our Maginot Line. It would keep us safe, just as the French believed their series of steel and concrete forts would guard them against the German advance in 1940. But their thinking failed catastrophically. The French failed to appreciate the evolution of mobile warfare. Like the French, Australia has failed to see how mobile our authoritarian neighbour has become.</p>
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<p>Invoking Nazi Germany or the Holocaust to advance an argument is treacherous terrain at the best of times, unless the author is clamouring for attention.</p>
<p>One wonders how much notice Hastie’s commentary would have attracted if there had been no reference to the inadequacies of France’s Maginot Line.</p>
<p>It’s reasonable to speculate that his contribution would have gone the way of those written by other China hawks in the so-called national security establishment, many of whom have converted their hawkishness on China into a cottage industry.</p>
<p>One other point might be made about Hastie’s contribution. It is simply not correct to say, as he did, there was a general expectation China would continue to democratise and in time become more like us.</p>
<p>This is a flawed and naive point of view.</p>
<p>China’s ruthless suppression of the Tiananmen Square democracy protests in 1989 was not an aberration. It was consistent with its behaviour since it began opening to the outside world in the late 1970s.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/thirty-years-on-china-is-still-trying-to-whitewash-the-tiananmen-crackdown-from-its-history-118178">Thirty years on, China is still trying to whitewash the Tiananmen crackdown from its history</a>
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<p>Its 1979 suppression of a Democracy Wall movement, and the arrest of prominent dissidents including human rights activist Wei Jingsheng, now in exile, attest to a regime’s ruthlessness in stifling dissent.</p>
<p>Beijing’s tolerance of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hong-kong-protesters-have-turned-militant-and-more-strategic-and-this-unnerves-beijing-121106">Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests</a> will be viewed through a prism of what these might portend for the mainland. If there is any indication of contagion across borders, China will react forcefully, and may do so anyway if disturbances continue.</p>
<p>Before addressing what might be an appropriate response from the Australian government to an eruption of anti-China sentiment on its own backbench, perhaps it would be useful to define the challenges at play.</p>
<p>In its latest manifestation, China is no longer a status quo power. It is one that is seeking expand its power and influence in what it regards as its own sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific, broadly defined to include the southwest Pacific.</p>
<p>These attempts to assert itself are not simply restricted to the militarisation of geographical features in the South China Sea. They also involve pursuit of an economic, diplomatic and propaganda offensive that is designed to advance Chinese interests at home and abroad.</p>
<p>In seeking to promote these interests, Beijing is an indefatigable exploiter of opportunities and weaknesses. If there is a rule of thumb in dealing with China in this latest phase, it is that it will seek to get away with what it can on many different fronts.</p>
<p>In that sense, Hastie has a point: Australia cannot simply adopt a passive response to Chinese single-mindedness in pursuit of what it perceives to be its own interests.</p>
<p>The question, then, becomes what to do?</p>
<p>This is where it becomes crucial that the Morrison government settles on a clearly defined strategy to deal with a disruptive China. What this should involve is a combination of a hedging strategy in partnership with Australia’s allies to balance Beijing’s militarised ambitions, and a separate one in which Australia’s own economic and diplomatic interests are asserted.</p>
<p>The government’s task will be to tread a fine line between security arrangements with its allies, principally the United States, and a relationship with China that is defined by Australia’s own interests and not those of anyone else.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/stories/australia-and-the-indo-pacific-an-address-by-prime-minister-scott-morrison">thoughtful speech to Asialink</a> before the G20 Summit in Osaka in June, Morrison outlined what appeared to have the makings of a “Morrison doctrine” on how to steer a course in treacherous waters between Australia’s security and economic lifelines.</p>
<p>The prime minister argued for a more activist diplomatic role in the region, aimed at securing Australian national interests in what are choppy waters. He said:</p>
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<p>We should not just sit back and await our fate in the wake of a major power contest.</p>
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<p>Australia could do worse than pursue an Asian equivalent of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Helsinki-Accords">Helsinki Accords</a> that helped keep the peace in Europe during the Cold War.</p>
<p>This is a time for creative Australian diplomacy, not running off to Washington to hide behind America’s petticoat.</p>
<p>This returns us to the Hastie intervention and the national interest question.</p>
<p>Just as Hastie is entitled to express a personal point of view, so does the government of the day have a responsibility to assert what is in the national interest.</p>
<p>Clearly it is not in the national interest for political leaders to disregard comments that might have a negative impact on relations with Australia’s pre-eminent trading partner. China absorbs one-third of Australia’s merchandise exports. </p>
<p>This is what the <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/doorstep-holsworthy-nsw">prime minister had to say</a>:</p>
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<p>… the government is fully aware of the complexity that is involved in our region and the challenges that we face in the future… And we are careful as a government to ensure that we don’t seek to make them any more complex than they need to be. And that is what Australians can count on. We will be measured. We will be careful and we will put Australia’s national interest first.</p>
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<p>Morrison needs to assert this point of view more forcefully if he is to avoid losing control of China policy. These is nothing inherently inconsistent between a national interest argument and one that enables dissident voices to have their say.</p>
<p>After all, this is not China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Backbencher Andrew Hastie’s recent opinion piece has caused ructions within the government, but Scott Morrison needs to articulate a clear policy on China that also allows for dissenting voices.Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1217322019-08-11T11:12:25Z2019-08-11T11:12:25ZView from The Hill: It’s not in the ‘national interest’ for the backbench to shut up about China<p>Trade minister Simon Birmingham on Sunday weighed into the debate over <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-see-china-the-opportunities-and-the-threats-with-clear-eyes-20190807-p52eon.html">Andrew Hastie’s warning about China rise</a>. Birmingham said colleagues in future should ask themselves two questions before speaking out on “sensitive foreign policy matters”.</p>
<p>These were: “Is the making of those comments in a public way necessary? And is it helpful to Australia’s national interest?”</p>
<p>On a narrow view, the warning by Hastie - the chairman of the powerful parliamentary committee on intelligence and security - about Australia not being alive enough to the dangers of an ever more powerful China was not “necessary”; nor was it particularly helpful to a government trying to manage a relationship that gets more complicated all the time.</p>
<p>But the idea that backbenchers should not voice considered views on such a major long term issue for this country shows a certain contempt for parliamentary democracy.</p>
<p>Birmingham, speaking on the ABC, said: “There are a range of ways in which any of us can contribute and we can do that with direct discussion with ministers and with leadership in backbench committees and other ways”.</p>
<p>Decoded, the message to the backbench was: boys and girls, when in public just follow the talking points we give you. </p>
<p>Amid the noisy chatter and clatter of our current politics, serious foreign policy discussions among politicians are relatively rare. But the broad community debate grows ever stronger about China and its implications for Australia - including the now-great power’s trajectory, our dependence on it economically, its reach into this country (including through investment and our educational institutions), and how we juggle our respective relationships with it and the United States.</p>
<p>New Liberal backbencher Dave Sharma entered the China debate at the weekend, with a robust thread of nearly a dozen tweets, in support of Hastie.</p>
<p>A former senior diplomat, Sharma is more steeped in foreign policy than most on the frontbench.</p>
<p>“Hastie is right to ring the bell on this issue, and to warn that our greatest vulnerability lies in our thinking, which is Panglossian at times,” he wrote.</p>
<p>Significantly, Sharma also supported Hastie’s comparison with France’s failure to comprehend properly the rise of Germany before World War 2.</p>
<p>“In WW2, we failed to realise early enough that German ambitions could not be accommodated. National Socialist Germany was not a status quo power, but we mistook it as such, or deceived ourselves that it was,” Sharma wrote.</p>
<p>Hastie’s reference to Germany had been sharply condemned on Friday by Senate leader Mathias Cormann, who said it was a “a clumsy and inappropriate analogy.”</p>
<p>But Hastie was verballed over his invoking of Germany. He wasn’t saying the Chinese and Nazi regimes were the same – he was talking about the underestimation of the threats they posed to other countries.</p>
<p>Hastie could have drawn another parallel – with the failure of countries in the 1930s to fully appreciate the looming threat from Japan.</p>
<p>Sharma noted that rising powers inevitably cause convulsions - “the challenge is to accommodate a rising power IF it is sufficiently status quo in nature that it can be accommodated. This was the thesis with China for much of the early 2000s,” Sharma wrote.</p>
<p>“But if the rising power is revisionist in nature, and cannot be accommodated within the existing order – because it fundamentally does not accept the legitimacy of that order – then the future becomes much tougher”.</p>
<p>Given it was clear China’s ideological direction and ambition had become “far more pronounced” under its current leadership, “our strategy and thinking needs to reflect this shift, which is basically Hastie’s point – that we need to remove the blinkers from our eyes, recognise reality for what it is, and act accordingly,” Sharma said. </p>
<p>“This does not mean we should not be pursuing a constructive and positive relationship with China – we should be. Nor does it compel us to make a ‘choice’. But we need to be honest with ourselves about the challenges of managing this relationship and what might lie ahead.”</p>
<p>Of course Australian government policy in the last few years has been reacting to what has been seen as a heightening Chinese threat - even while the government has often been unwilling to admit as much.</p>
<p>The Pacific “step up” is all about China. So was the legislation, enacted by the Turnbull government, against foreign interference. The exclusion of Huawei from the 5G network was an unequivocal message. Australia’s intensified efforts to counter the cyber security threat have China front of mind.</p>
<p>The Chinese predictably reacted with annoyance to Hastie’s comments. But they are much more attuned to the actions Australia has taken and continues to take – measures which have been and are in the national interest. That’s the basic reason why Australia-China relations are strained.</p>
<p>The government’s trying to shut down backbench contributions to this debate is less a matter of the “national interest” than an exercise of attempted control of its MPs in its own interest. In fact it might be counter-productive for the national interest, which may require the Australian public to acquire a much better understanding than they have now of what could be increasingly difficult times and decisions in the years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government is trying to shut down backbench contributions in the name of the “national interest”, but it is more an exercise of attempted control in its own interest.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1216982019-08-09T07:57:21Z2019-08-09T07:57:21ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the High Court’s free speech ruling - and the public service<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Geoff Crisp speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in politics. They discuss the High Court’s ruling on a public servant’s social media posts, and the upcoming public service review. They also talk about Andrew Hastie’s comments on China, and the government’s upcoming commitment to protect shipping trades in the Middle East.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Geoff Crisp speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1216352019-08-08T06:11:24Z2019-08-08T06:11:24ZMorrison looking at details for commitment to protect shipping<p>Scott Morrison has flagged the government is working with the United States and Britain on details for an Australian role in helping safeguard shipping passages in the Middle East.</p>
<p>Morrison told a news conference in Townsville on Thursday he had spoken to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday night and “indicated to him that we were looking very carefully at our participation in this initiative”.</p>
<p>Morrison stressed it would be a multinational operation. </p>
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<p>This is not a unilateral initiative by any one country, and it is about safe shipping lanes, it is about deescalating tensions and making sure that the current situation does not worsen.</p>
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<p>He said the government had not “made any decisions on this yet. We want to be fully satisfied about the operational arrangements that are in place”. It was very early days and it would be a while before things came together.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/iran-and-us-refusing-to-budge-as-tit-for-tat-ship-seizures-in-middle-east-raise-the-temperature-120732">Iran and US refusing to budge as tit-for-tat ship seizures in Middle East raise the temperature</a>
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<p>In practice though, the government has obviously agreed in principle, subject to satisfactory arrangements being worked out. Its role is somewhat complicated, however, by the fact it does not have a ship in the region.</p>
<p>The US’s request for Australian assistance was discussed at the weekend AUSMIN talks.</p>
<p>Morrison said there were other countries which were in a similar position to Australia - “engaging before making any full decisions”.</p>
<p>He stressed the maritime issue “should be clearly divorced from the broader issues that relate to Iran and the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear deal that the US pulled out of last year].</p>
<p>"That’s a separate issue. This is about safe shipping lanes and ensuring that we can restore at least some stability to what is a very unstable part of the world at the moment,” Morrison said.</p>
<p>“There has been a very disturbing series of events that we’ve seen in the Straits of Hormuz, and freedom of navigation and safe shipping lanes is very important to the global economy and that is a matter that is as important in that part of the world as it is in many other parts of the world.”</p>
<h2>China hits back at Liberal chair of security committee</h2>
<p>The Chinese authorities have accused Liberal MP Andrew Hastie of “Cold-War mentality and ideological bias”, after he drew on the example of France’s “catastrophic” failure to comprehend the threat of a rising Nazi Germany in an article warning about the dangers from a rising China.</p>
<p>Hastie, chair of the powerful parliamentary joint committee on intelligence and security, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-see-china-the-opportunities-and-the-threats-with-clear-eyes-20190807-p52eon.html">wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald</a>: </p>
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<p>The West once believed that economic liberalisation would naturally lead to democratisation in China. This was our Maginot Line. It would keep us safe, just as the French believed their series of steel and concrete forts would guard them against the German advance in 1940. But their thinking failed catastrophically. The French had failed to appreciate the evolution of mobile warfare. Like the French, Australia has failed to see how mobile our authoritarian neighbour has become.</p>
<p>Even worse, we ignore the role that ideology plays in China’s actions across the Indo-Pacific region. We keep using our own categories to understand its actions, such as its motivations for building ports and roads, rather than those used by the Chinese Communist Party.</p>
<p>The West has made this mistake before. Commentators once believed Stalin’s decisions were the rational actions of a realist great power.</p>
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<p>Hastie referred to action Australia had taken such as foreign espionage legislation and more closely monitoring infrastructure.</p>
<p>But “right now our greatest vulnerability lies not in our infrastructure, but in our thinking. That intellectual failure makes us institutionally weak. If we don’t understand the challenge ahead for our civil society, in our parliaments, in our universities, in our private enterprises, in our charities — our little platoons — then choices will be made for us. Our sovereignty, our freedoms, will be diminished.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-depends-less-on-chinese-trade-than-some-might-think-120423">Australia depends less on Chinese trade than some might think</a>
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<p>A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy said in a statement: </p>
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<p>We strongly deplore the Australian federal MP Andrew Hastie’s rhetoric on “China threat” which lays bare his Cold-War mentality and ideological bias. It goes against the world trend of peace, cooperation and development. It is detrimental to China-Australian relations.</p>
<p>History has proven and will continue to prove that China’s peaceful development is an opportunity, not a threat to the world.</p>
<p>We urge certain Australian politicians to take off their “colored lens” and view China’s development path in an objective and rational way. They should make efforts to promote mutual trust between China and Australia, instead of doing the opposite.</p>
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<p>Morrison played down the Hastie comments, noting he was a backbencher not a minister.</p>
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<p>We will continue to work to have a cooperative arrangement with China. Of course, there is much to be gained from that relationship, particularly from the trade side, but let’s not forget that relationship is far broader than just the economic one.</p>
<p>But equally, our relationship with the United States is a very special one indeed and there is a deep connection on values and that’s of no surprise to anyone.</p>
<p>So we believe we can continue to manage these relationships together, but I don’t think anyone is in any way unaware of the challenges that present there.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121635/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison has flagged the government is working with the United States and Britain on details for an Australian role in helping safeguard shipping passages in the Middle East.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/478362015-09-22T00:26:22Z2015-09-22T00:26:22ZThe wash-up from the Canning byelection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95529/original/image-20150921-31531-1htovyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Hastie retained the federal seat of Canning for the government at a byelection on the weekend.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Saturday’s byelection in the federal electorate of Canning, the Liberal Party <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-easily-hold-canning-but-with-a-6-4-swing-to-labor-47828">retained the seat</a> with a swing of 6-7% against the government. So what did we learn from the campaign? What are the result’s implications for both the new Turnbull government and the Labor opposition? Natalie Mast sat down with elections expert William Bowe to discuss this and more.</p>
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<p><strong>Q: What are your general observations on Saturday’s poll?</strong></p>
<p>A: I struggle to extract anything headline-grabbing from it. I think it was quite a dull result. There was a danger zone for both parties – for Labor it was below 5%; for the Liberal Party it was pushing 10%. We ended up right in the middle of those two ranges at between 6% and 7%. </p>
<p>Both sides have got the lines that they can spin to explain the result. The result isn’t clear-cut enough to make any of those lines easier to nay-say, so I think the result will be forgotten quite quickly. For those of us who had the Canning byelection pencilled in as the crucial test of Tony Abbott’s prime ministership, it ended up being an anti-climax in a number of ways.</p>
<p><strong>Q: What impact do you think the “Turnbull factor” had on the vote?</strong></p>
<p>A: I think Tony Abbott was headed for a swing of about 9%, and what we’ve ended up with is a swing of about 6-7%. That indicates that Malcolm Turnbull made around 2-3% of difference. This is probably a little bit on the modest side of what we might have been expecting, given the vast gap in popularity between Abbott and Turnbull. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it also makes sense that voters are extremely sick of coups against the prime minister, and there’s been a little bit of an allergic reaction against that. I think the view among Canning voters would have been “I’d have liked more time here to get a sense of how the Turnbull prime ministership is going to look once the dust has settled”, because for all we know this may be the beginning of Rudd-Gillard mark 2.</p>
<p>There’s a natural suspicion among voters that while they might be a lot more pleased with Turnbull being prime minister than Abbott, the Liberal Party itself is still on notice – that the jury is out on it – and I think a lot of people who had resolved to vote against the Liberal Party during the byelection campaign didn’t just snap back into action the moment Abbott was out the door. </p>
<p>Therefore, the effect was a little bit subdued. 2-3% wasn’t nothing – it was measurable – but it’s not that big honeymoon rush that you often get in opinion polls under these circumstances.</p>
<p><strong>Q: Labor’s primary vote is up around 8.5%, off an admittedly low base. Where is the swing to Labor coming from?</strong></p>
<p>A: The minor party vote collectively was down, which is interesting. The Greens’ vote fell, which is a pretty poor show for a byelection. You’d expect there to be that anti-major-party protest vote floating around at a byelection, particularly given the performance of the major parties lately – but it didn’t seem to be there. </p>
<p>The Greens had a few predators this time on the left – the Animal Justice Party and the Pirate Party were in the field, and that nibbled away at their vote a little bit. But, even so, they wouldn’t have expected to have fallen from more than 7% of the primary vote to a bit below 6%.</p>
<p>I think the Palmer United Party is a spent force now. The result was yet more of an indication of that. Palmer United put a bit more effort into this campaign than it had into other elections recently, but its vote still fell by more than one-half. I suspect that the Palmer United Party was picking up a lot of the disaffected Labor vote at the last election and what we saw at this byelection was that vote coming home.</p>
<p><strong>Q: Do you think Labor candidate Matt Keogh performed well enough to earn preselection in the proposed <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-21/new-seat-for-wa-to-be-named-burt/6714950">new seat of Burt</a>?</strong></p>
<p>A: Matt Keogh has been spoken of for some time as someone who will eventually have a seat lined up for him. Canning wouldn’t have been a very tempting offer – even under Tony Abbott there were very few people actually anticipating that Labor was going to win. So I had always assumed that this was part of a broader strategy where Keogh gets to sell himself and raise his profile ahead of a more determined pitch for a seat later on. </p>
<p>The circumstances are ideal for that seat to be the newly created seat of Burt. There’s a redistribution in progress. We’re still at the draft stage, but you can reasonably safely assume that the new electorate will look like how it does in the draft. Burt will be a southeastern suburban seat which has Armadale at the southern end of it – Armadale being the area of the Canning electorate which is the most naturally favourable area of it for Labor and also the area that swung most heavily to Labor on Saturday.</p>
<p>So, Burt is a very promising seat for Labor going forward. On 2013 figures it is a very slightly marginal Liberal seat. But if Labor put the effort in to campaign there, then it should be extremely optimistic that it would win Burt at the next election.</p>
<p>And, conveniently, Keogh has just had a magical opportunity to raise his profile in the Armadale end of the electorate, and to project the fact that he is a local from that area – he grew up in Kelmscott. It would surprise me a great deal if Labor didn’t have some strategic plan to make Keogh the candidate for Burt next time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is chair of The Conversation's editorial board.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Bowe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What did we learn from the Canning byelection campaign? What are the result’s implications for both the new Turnbull government and the Labor opposition?Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Performance Analytics, The University of Western AustraliaWilliam Bowe, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/478242015-09-19T14:14:25Z2015-09-19T14:14:25ZMid-range swing a good result for Turnbull in Canning<p>The Liberals’ dumping of Tony Abbott in favour of Malcolm Turnbull appears to have helped contain the swing to give the government an easy win in the Canning byelection.</p>
<p>A contest that started as politically charged ended as something of a damp squib. Late Saturday night the two-party swing against the government was more than 6.5%, substantial in normal circumstances but considerably less than earlier knife-edge polls had threatened.</p>
<p>With around 70% of the vote counted, the primary vote for Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie, an ex-SAS officer, stood at about 46%. Labor’s Matt Keogh was on about 36%. The Greens were polling around 6%. The Palmer United Party vote has collapsed from just under 7% in the 2013 election to about 3%. The byelection resulted from the death of the former Liberal member Don Randall, who held the seat with an 11.8% margin.</p>
<p>The confusing cross currents caused by the leadership change mean that not a great deal can be read in national terms into the 6.5% swing – although it is above the 5% average against governments in byelections since 1949.</p>
<p>A Fairfax-Ipsos poll in Canning taken just before the leadership change and published on Monday showed an anti-government swing of almost 10%. At that stage the byelection was seen as crucial to Abbott’s future, with a bad result likely to lead to a move against him. But Turnbull, who knew he had the numbers against Abbott, decided not to wait.</p>
<p>After he was deposed, Abbott supporters claimed Canning had been on track under him for a better outcome than some of the public polling had suggested. They also claimed this as one reason the challenge was brought on before the byelection.</p>
<p>But although the government seemed set to retain Canning even under Abbott, the former prime minister was poison in the electorate. Labor centred its campaign on his unpopularity. When he was removed, the ALP campaign was inevitably deflated. The Liberals ran a locally centred campaign.</p>
<p>Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop, flanking Hastie at the Liberals’ victory celebration on Saturday night, said it was “a most impressive outcome”. She had spoken to Turnbull, who sent his best wishes to Hastie.</p>
<p>Keogh, speaking to his supporters on Saturday night, said “We may have lost the battle of Canning … but we did win the first war – we did get rid of Tony Abbott”.</p>
<p>In his victory speech, Hastie said: “This campaign was always about the people of Canning and their concerns. It is quite clear that the people of Canning don’t care about Canberra politicking or tricky games and it is worth noting that London and Moscow are actually closer together than Perth and Canberra themselves.”</p>
<p>Keogh said the normal swing when a member had died was about 2.5% – but Labor was looking at swings of 6%. He said people were upset by the government’s broken promises and cuts, and thousands of people had voted Labor for the first time. “The voters love Bill [Shorten], despite what you might read in the newspapers,” he said.</p>
<p>Bill Shorten campaigned extensively in the byelection; Abbott paid three visits, the last a week ago. Turnbull was there once. Hastie quipped at Saturday’s celebration: “We shared a train ride from the city to Mandurah, and I watched him walk the full length of the train and back talking to people. If that’s any guide to how he’s going to operate as the prime minister, the AFP security detail have a big job ahead of them.”</p>
<p>Hastie also thanked Abbott, saying he was “grateful for his support and guidance”.</p>
<p>Shorten said the byelection was always going to be an incredibly difficult fight for Labor.</p>
<p>“The Liberal Party sacrificed Australia’s prime minister to hold the seat of Canning,” he said. Labor’s campaign had turned a safe Liberal seat into a marginal one.</p>
<p>“Voters in Canning have sent Malcolm Turnbull a clear message: the Liberals changing leaders changed little. This evening’s result is a strong rejection of the Abbott/Turnbull government’s cuts and broken promises.</p>
<p>"This result is a strong endorsement of Labor’s commitment to Australian jobs and our concerns about details of the China free trade agreement,” Shorten said.</p>
<p>The comfortable Canning win provides a good start to Turnbull’s prime ministership, which takes a major step forward with the announcement of his ministry on Sunday. The revamped ministry will see Scott Morrison replace Joe Hockey as treasurer and more women on the frontbench, including in cabinet. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-arthur-sinodinos-on-why-australia-needed-a-new-prime-minister-47696">Listen to the latest Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast with guest, Arthur Sinodinos.</a></strong></p>
<iframe id="audio_iframe" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/3ct6d-58c544" width="100%" height="100" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The Liberals’ dumping of Tony Abbott in favour of Malcolm Turnbull appears to have helped contain the swing to give the government an easy win in the Canning byelection. A contest that started as politically…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/462832015-09-17T20:16:23Z2015-09-17T20:16:23ZCountdown to Canning byelection: interview with Poll Bludger William Bowe<p><em>We’re on the eve of the Canning byelection and the nation’s interest has turned from viewing Saturday as a poll on Tony Abbott to being a test of both new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Political analyst Natalie Mast spoke with “Poll Bludger” William Bowe about what Monday’s leadership spill will mean for the vote in Canning.</em></p>
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<p><strong>Q: How has the polling changed since the weekend?</strong></p>
<p>A: It is early days yet, although we have had the first national opinion poll for voting intention under Malcolm Turnbull and it has come in at 50-50. This particular pollster had it at 54-46 in favour of Labor during the declining period of Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. That’s an immediate 4% shift in favour of Turnbull. </p>
<p>As sugar rushes go, I’m a little surprised that that’s not bigger. It’s probably a little bit less than when Kevin Rudd became leader again in mid-2013. Gillard went from being about 55-45 behind to 50-50. We want to see more than one poll and we want that poll to have been conducted a few days later after the dust has had time to settle. The poll we’ve seen is consistent with a feeling of general relief, and perhaps not quite yet the euphoria you may have expected given that a person of Turnbull’s popularity is now in the position.</p>
<p><strong>Q: There were early predictions of a 10% swing to Labor. What do you think that might look like now under a Turnbull government?</strong></p>
<p>A: The million-dollar question is: we’re getting that honeymoon rush to Turnbull and the Liberal Party now that the poison has been drawn with respect to Abbott being prime minister. So, are the byelection dynamics the same as the opinion poll dynamics? Does that automatically transform the Liberal Party’s situation into a 5% improvement in Canning? Or is there a different atmosphere in respect to the byelection? </p>
<p>I think a lot of people in Canning might feel a little insulted that this has been sprung on them a week out from the byelection. This was Canning’s moment in the sun – when the whole nation has been watching them and waiting to check their pulse – and they have now been told, “Well, it turned out you didn’t matter as much as you were told you did.”</p>
<p>They were going to be given an opportunity to cast their verdict on a prime ministership, but that’s been pre-empted. It may be that the voters of Canning are in a crankier mindset. </p>
<p>Also, the process of going to vote in a byelection puts the voter in a very different position to an opinion poll when they’re being asked to reel off the top of their head how they think they’d vote today. When an opinion poll respondent gets a call this is the first time they’ve been asked to consider this matter. The people of Canning have had a lot more time to think about this matter.</p>
<p>Having said that, the Liberal Party has gone from having an unpopular leader to a very popular one. I don’t see how that can fail to transfer into a favourable movement to them, notwithstanding that there’s a little bit of negativity in there as well. Every opinion poll from Canning from before Tuesday can be put in the wastepaper bin now; we really need to see some fresh polling. My guess is that the Liberals were hanging on; now they’re going to get a more comfortable win.</p>
<p><strong>Q: Because of all the attention on the national leadership, Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie has had a pretty easy ride. But he did have a bump in the middle of the campaign when he refused to deny he was a creationist. How important do you think that has been?</strong></p>
<p>A: I don’t think it is important in this particular electorate. It’s not the type of electorate that has a negative reaction to people’s religious beliefs even if the people aren’t religious themselves. In an electorate where you have more people who are tertiary-educated, more people who are professionals, these are the sorts of demographics that are missing from the Canning electorate. </p>
<p>They don’t think same-sex marriage is terribly important in this area. It’s not that kind of post-materialist area where voters are concerned with things to do with personal expression, religious beliefs, the need to have someone who is a rationalist rather than a religious person.</p>
<p><strong>Q: What have the Liberal Party been campaigning on?</strong></p>
<p>A: Like Labor they’ve been campaigning on “local issues”, which really means state issues, so there’s that element of perversity there. The candidate Andrew Hastie keeps wanting to talk about the ice epidemic and law and order. A lot of the Liberal Party campaign is: “Let’s make this as local as we can, let’s make it oriented on bread-and-butter local community issues and the calibre of the two candidates and who you want representing you.” </p>
<p>This is to take everything away from all of the things that have been destroying the Liberal government, which is the unpopularity of Tony Abbott, the disaster of the 2014 budget and all the various things that led to the leadership change earlier this week. They did a very strong job of making the conversation surrounding the byelection things which the Liberal Party can potentially win on. </p>
<p>It has surprised me the extent to which the campaign has been about the candidates. They could have selected someone a lot blander who has a less clearly identifiable image within the public mind, and then the void would have been filled by all of the national-level issues that would have communicated to all of the voters in Canning: “Here is a referendum on Tony Abbott/the federal government.” </p>
<p>I think the Liberal Party have done a really good job of making people not perceive the byelection that way, but making them think about the candidates as a basis on which people might make the decision to vote Liberal.</p>
<p><strong>Q: How has Labor candidate Matt Keogh performed?</strong> </p>
<p>A: I don’t want to be too critical of Matt Keogh but he’s probably the kind of thing I had in mind when I said the Liberal Party could have presented a blander candidate. Keogh might have a very good political career ahead of him, but for the time being he kind of looks, feels and sounds like a member of the political class. </p>
<p>I think Julie Bishop had an amusing line when she called him a “hipster lawyer”. That was a good bit of local knowledge at work, as a person who understands the social geography of this place – Matt Keogh lives in Mount Lawley, which is Perth’s equivalent of a café latte kind of area. Bishop used that to negate the advantage that he was presenting for himself, which was that he grew up in the Armadale area. </p>
<p>Labor could have sold that line very successfully if Bishop hadn’t drawn attention to the fact that he doesn’t live in the electorate anymore, and furthermore that he’s not in the prevailing class of people who are in Canning. He’s not the kind of blue-collar worker that you get in an area like Armadale. So if he does have a connection with the electorate it’s a pretty tenuous one.</p>
<p>Against that the Liberals are able to sell the idea that, okay, Andrew Hastie doesn’t live in Canning, but part of that reason is that he’s been living in Afghanistan. Are you going to hold that against him? The answer is no. He doesn’t live here when he is in Australia but people do understand that if you’re in the defence force you get very little discretion as to where you live. So the Liberal Party have negated the issue of not having a local candidate. </p>
<p>As well as that, I don’t think Keogh has been able to present a narrative of himself, of who he is. There’s no story surrounding Keogh, whereas there’s a really clear and potent story surrounding Hastie. It might not be to everyone’s tastes, there will be some who react against him appearing to be a Christian conservative. </p>
<p>But, nonetheless, the story is out there that Keogh just looks a little bit like a political operative and I think he’s lost that battle. If the opportunity was there in the byelection campaign, which it may not have been, for him to reverse that impression, then I think he’s failed to turn that around.</p>
<p><strong>Q: The other big political question we’ll be facing this weekend is: who’s going to be in and who’s going to be out of Turnbull’s cabinet? How do you think Western Australia’s parliamentarians are going to fare?</strong></p>
<p>A: It’s an interesting question because the Liberal Party in Western Australia really punches above its weight because it won so many seats at the last election. I think they would have 18 Western Australian parliamentarians out of that party room of 100, which is well out of proportion to the share of population.</p>
<p>And that was reflected at first in Tony Abbott’s government in that there were three Western Australians in cabinet positions. But, since then, we’ve seen David Johnston get demoted from the defence ministry. So the question is: does Western Australia get refunded for the cabinet position it lost when that occurred? I think, if that’s the case, the most likely scenario that I can see is that Michaelia Cash, who is currently a junior minister, gets promoted into cabinet. She’s been an extremely strong performer and I believe there has been talk of her taking over immigration. So I suspect that’s the greatest likelihood.</p>
<p>The other junior minister from Western Australia is Michael Keenan. He is interesting in that he was a Turnbull loyalist during the years in opposition. He got promoted to the shadow cabinet under Turnbull’s leadership, and then he got demoted back down to the junior shadow ministry when Abbott became the leader. So his career trajectory very nicely shadowed Turnbull’s, as people who have a loyalty to a particular party figurehead often do. </p>
<p>So the question might be now that Turnbull’s back in the job, does Keenan get promoted again? I wouldn’t think so, though, because there are a lot of people knocking on the door for a cabinet promotion. Probably too many; that was one of Abbott’s many failings. I think he didn’t do enough to refresh the cabinet and to throw the lifeline to ambitious people, and to give them a leg up. So there are probably too many people clamouring for Keenan to get a look in, and I think Cash has left the stronger impression out of those two people.</p>
<p>The other rising figure within the Liberal Party is Christian Porter. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary in the end of 2014 and, of course, he was a very senior figure in the state government before he made the switch to federal politics at the 2013 election. He was treasurer and attorney-general, and he’s from a law background, so the attorney-general position would be a good fit for him. </p>
<p>But given, as I said, all of the people who are clamouring for a position, I think it might be a bit too much for Porter to hope that at this early stage he’s going to go two spots above the ladder. But maybe he will get a position in the junior ministry filling the Western Australian vacancy, perhaps, that gets created by Cash getting promoted into the actual cabinet, if indeed that what’s happens.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>These are edited excerpts from the interview, which includes a discussion of the minor parties’ role in the byelection. The interview can be heard in full below:</em> </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="1501" data-image="" data-title="Canning byelection: interview with Poll Bludger William Bowe" data-size="36016942" data-source="" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-ND" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">
<source src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/213/canning-podcast-full-interview-mixdown.mp3" type="audio/mpeg">
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<div class="audio-player-caption">
Canning byelection: interview with Poll Bludger William Bowe.
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a><span class="download"><span>34.3 MB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/213/canning-podcast-full-interview-mixdown.mp3">(download)</a></span></span>
</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is chair of The Conversation's editorial board.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Bowe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Political analyst Natalie Mast speaks with “The Poll Bludger” William Bowe about what Monday’s leadership spill will mean for Saturday’s Canning byelection.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaWilliam Bowe, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/477072015-09-17T20:15:46Z2015-09-17T20:15:46ZSpeaking with: the Poll Bludger William Bowe on the Canning byelection<p>This Saturday’s Canning byelection has turned from being a poll on Tony Abbott to being a test of both new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.</p>
<p>Political analyst Natalie Mast spoke with “Poll Bludger” William Bowe about what Monday’s leadership spill will mean for the vote in Canning.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/speaking-with.../id934267338">Subscribe</a> to The Conversation’s Speaking With podcasts on iTunes, or <a href="http://tunein.com/radio/Speaking-with---The-Conversation-Podcast-p671452/">follow</a> on Tunein Radio.</em></p>
<p>Music: Free Music Archive/Blue Dot Sessions: <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Blue_Dot_Sessions/Castro">Castro</a></p>
<p>Additional audio: Channel 7 News, ABC News</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is Chair of the Editorial Board of The Conversation.</span></em></p>Natalie Mast spoke with William Bowe about what the leadership spill means for the Canning byelection, which looms as a test of both new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/471062015-09-04T08:34:43Z2015-09-04T08:34:43ZAbbott on the nose in Canning but Liberals a nose in front<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93867/original/image-20150904-14621-aqmif0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Hastie addresses Liberal volunteers while Tony Abbott looks on.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Dawson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Julie Bishop, deputy Liberal leader and the most senior minister from Western Australia, has a special interest in the tough Canning byelection contest. Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie, a former SAS officer, is her “vice-captain’s pick”.</p>
<p>Bishop <a href="http://www.postnewspapers.com.au/">told POST Newspapers</a>, a suburban weekly that circulates in her electorate, that she first met Hastie in Afghanistan in 2009 when she sat at a table with him.</p>
<p>Hastie has been a party member in her seat of Curtin, and she encouraged him to seek the Canning preselection. Asked by the paper whether he was a captain’s pick, Bishop quipped: “How about a vice-captain’s pick?”</p>
<p>Bishop is investing intense effort in Canning, where the government is desperately trying to keep the focus local, all about its ex-military man, while Labor seeks to make it a referendum on Tony Abbott.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93868/original/image-20150904-14653-py5v1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Labor candidate Matt Keogh and deputy leader Tanya Plibersek pose with the local party faithful at their office opening this week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Dawson</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>With a fortnight to go, campaigners on both sides expect the Liberals to win the September 19 byelection, caused by the death of popular Liberal member Don Randall, who held the seat on a margin of 11.8% – part of it a strong personal vote.</p>
<p>Polling so far has shown the battle very close, with an edge to the Liberals.</p>
<p>The half-joke among some in Labor is that its best result would be a Liberal win accompanied by a substantial swing to the ALP, because a Liberal defeat might lead to Abbott being replaced by a more formidable leader.</p>
<p>But there’s no evidence for the claim reported from ministerial sources this week that Labor is running dead. It will try hard, even if it spends less than its opponents. If the ALP did poorly, fresh criticism would quickly come on Bill Shorten. Abbott said on Friday that Shorten, in the electorate on Thursday, had “certainly been very active in Canning for someone who is allegedly running dead”.</p>
<p>Both Labor and Liberal campaigners this week report strong anti-Abbott feeling among the public. At Wednesday’s opening of the Liberal campaign office in Mandurah, where Abbott appeared with Hastie, some among the faithful were freely discussing the leadership, and confirming voters’ dislike of Abbott.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93869/original/image-20150904-14621-1ojhy03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Tony Abbott makes his way through Liberal volunteers in Mandurah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Dawson</span></span>
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<p>Given this, why would Abbott have been in Canning this week for his second visit? He’s in a cleft stick. To stay away would have simply meant giving Labor the opportunity to highlight his absence.</p>
<p>When he and Abbott appeared at Wednesday’s news conference, Hastie, 32, jumped in when Abbott was asked whether it intrigued or irritated him that Labor might prefer him leading at the election rather than Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
<p>In a political equivalent of taking the bullet, Hastie said: “I don’t have time to take counsel from the east coast Twitterati. There’s a significant disconnect between what people are saying over in the east and what is happening here in Canning.”</p>
<p>Abbott is much taken with Hastie who, with his military background and strong conservative values, ticks Abbott’s favourite boxes. Quite a bromance there, Liberal sources say. </p>
<p>While Labor is playing on the unpopularity of Abbott and Premier Colin Barnett, it is also trumpeting one “local” advantage – its candidate, 33-year-old lawyer Matt Keogh, was born and bred in the electorate, though he hasn’t been living there in recent years (but has just moved back).</p>
<p>Hastie has been confronted with questions about two incidents from his military past – neither involving any blame for him – and about his father’s creationist beliefs and his wife’s posting (but not authoring) a blog relating to homosexuality, which he explained was part of her job when she was working as a church receptionist.</p>
<p>Stories about the military incidents have almost certainly worked for rather than against Hastie, who is likely to benefit from a “patriotism” factor. </p>
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<span class="caption">Tanya Plibersek and Matt Keogh talk to local Labor members.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Dawson</span></span>
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<p>The byelection has attracted a field of a dozen candidates. Clive Palmer is running an executive of his Mineralogy company, Vimal Sharma. The Greens candidate, Vanessa Rauland, is a lecturer at the Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute (CUSP). There are candidates from the Liberal Democrats, the Pirate Party, the Animal Justice Party and Family First.</p>
<p>The ballot paper draw benefits the Liberals. Palmer United Party is on the top and is preferencing down the ticket, advantaging Hastie, who appears above Keogh. The order also means the Liberals get the benefit of the “donkey” vote – from voters who just start at the top and work down.</p>
<p>The medley of issues includes community security, which is getting a lot of attention, and jobs. The latter is potent given that the electorate houses fly-in-fly-out workers who are hit with the end of the mining boom. </p>
<p>One issue of particular interest is the China-Australia free trade agreement. Labor research has found considerable concern about the agreement’s labour market implications. When Finance Minister Mathias Cormann was doing TV interviews on a Canning street on Wednesday a motorist wound down his window and shouted: “keep the Chinese out of Australia”.</p>
<p>But the government is seeking to turn Shorten’s claim that there should be more safeguards for Australian workers back onto the opposition leader. Shorten is in a difficult position because a number of Labor figures have been speaking out in favour of the agreement and its benefits for Australia. Federal Labor is not seeking to block the agreement so at some point Shorten will have to shift ground, but probably not before he milks fears to the maximum in the byelection.</p>
<p>If Canning remains in government hands but with a big swing, the question will become how the Liberal backbenchers, particularly those in marginal seats, read that result. Will it produce relief (a win is a win) or alarm, and what implications will it have for Abbott’s leadership? </p>
<p>In the opinion of one Liberal source, the interpretation put on it by Bishop, who will have experienced more of the on-the-ground feeling than any other minister, will be critical. </p>
<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-canning-byelection-special-47041">Listen to the Canning by-election special episode of the Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast here, or on iTunes</a>.</strong></p>
<iframe id="audio_iframe" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/stxie-5873fd" width="100%" height="100" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Julie Bishop, deputy Liberal leader and the most senior minister from Western Australia, has a special interest in the tough Canning byelection contest. Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie, a former SAS officer…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.