tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/annastacia-palaszczuk-14271/articlesAnnastacia Palaszczuk – The Conversation2023-12-18T03:53:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194042023-12-18T03:53:23Z2023-12-18T03:53:23ZLabor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albanese-a-drag-on-labors-recovery/news-story/05ded91a0aaebd8e88c3a1c507ff97ea">Newspoll</a>, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 50% dissatisfied (down three) and 42% satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -8, up five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved four points to -9. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35.</p>
<p>The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since late 2022. While his net approval in this Newspoll is a recovery, he’s still well below net zero.</p>
<p>In my coverage of the previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">Newspoll</a>, I said other polls conducted at about the same time had narrow Labor leads, with Morgan giving the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead.</p>
<p>The polling now suggests Labor’s lead is increasing slightly. This may be explained by an improvement in economic sentiment. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9380-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-12">consumer confidence index</a> was up 4.4 points last week to 80.8, the highest it has been since February.</p>
<h2>Freshwater poll tied at 50–50</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-loses-lead-pm-s-ratings-slump-poll-20231217-p5es0f">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted December 15–17 from a sample of 1,109, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since September. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up two), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/17/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said Freshwater polls have been two or three points worse for Labor than the nearest Newspoll. This poll is better for Labor if Freshwater’s pro-Coalition lean is accounted for.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down two to -5, while Dutton’s was up eight to -2. Albanese led Dutton by 43–39 as preferred PM (46–37 in September). The Liberals had a net +3 approval, while Labor’s was -3 and the Greens were -16. Jacinta Price’s net approval was +7, Penny Wong’s was +5 and Barnaby Joyce’s was -17.</p>
<p>On issue salience, there was a six-point drop in cost of living to 71% and an eight-point rise in immigration to 13% (but this is only the eighth most important issue). The Coalition led Labor by five points on cost of living, up from one point in September. On immigration, the Coalition led by 13 points, up from five.</p>
<h2>YouGov poll: Greens gain at Labor’s expense</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48095-latest-yougov-poll-labors-primary-vote-is-the-lowest-since-1901">YouGov national poll</a>, conducted December 1–5 from a sample of 1,555, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous YouGov poll in mid-November. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/08/yougov-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said this is Labor’s lowest primary vote in any poll since the last election. If repeated at an election, it would be Labor’s lowest since the first federal election in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1901_Australian_federal_election">1901</a>.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval slumped nine points to -16, while Dutton’s net approval was down two to -9. Albanese led Dutton by 46–36 as preferred PM, with this ten-point margin down from 14 previously.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor’s lead increases</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted December 6–10 from a sample of 1,102, Labor led by 49–46 including undecided, out from 48–47 three weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>Voters were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-december-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–32 negative (35–33 in November). Dutton was at 37–28 negative (35–32 previously).</p>
<p>Big businesses and the government were thought to have too much power, while individuals, workers and small business were thought to not have enough. The most important issues voters wanted the government to address were energy prices, housing affordability and grocery prices.</p>
<p>Trust in various institutions has taken a double digit hit across the board since this question was last asked in September 2022.</p>
<p>Asked whether 2023 had been a good or bad year for various entities, the only one voter thought had had a better 2023 than 2022 were large companies and corporations (up ten points on net good to +36). There was a 22-point slump in “your personal financial situation” to -27 and a 14-point slump in the Australian economy to -41.</p>
<p>On what happened in 2023 relative to expectations at the beginning of the year, 49% said it had been worse than expected, 34% as expected and 13% better than expected. For 2024, 32% said it would be worse than 2023, 30% no different and 24% better.</p>
<h2>Redbridge poll, Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a> conducted December 6–11 from a sample of 2,010, gave Labor a 52.8–47.2 lead, a 0.7-point gain for the Coalition since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">previous Redbridge poll</a> in early November. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 19% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>By 53–33, voters thought Labor was not focused on the right priorities (50–36 in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November</a>). By 47–33, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government (50–30 previously).</p>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-december-2023">Morgan poll</a>, conducted December 4–10 from a sample of 1,719, Labor led by 51–49, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (down one) and 6% others (up two).</p>
<p>I covered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">federal Resolve poll</a> two weeks ago that still gave Labor a large lead. Voters were <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-want-migration-intake-cut-as-albanese-pledges-return-to-sustainable-levels-20231207-p5epxl.html">told net migration</a> to Australia was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels during the pandemic. To make up for this, it increased to 184,000 last year and was over 400,000 this year.</p>
<p>On this level of immigration, 62% thought it too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. On next year’s expected 260,000 net migration, 55% said too high, 25% about right and 5% too low. By 57–16, voters thought the government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way rather than a carefully planned and managed way.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor far ahead</h2>
<p>A Victorian <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/support-for-allan-dips-but-labor-holds-strong-lead-over-coalition-20231208-p5eq38.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of 1,093, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 31% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (up four) and others 6% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1733264329775186073">Kevin Bonham estimated</a> a Labor lead by 56.5–43.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition since October. Resolve’s federal polls have been far better for Labor than other polls.</p>
<p>New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s lead as preferred premier over Liberal leader John Pesutto narrowed to 34–22 from 38–19 in October. By 57–22, voters thought students should attend school and protest outside school time, rather than miss school for rallies.</p>
<h2>Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns</h2>
<p>On December 10, Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/annastacia-palaszczuk-resigning-as-queensland-premier/103211112">announced she would resign</a> as premier at the end of last week, and as Member for Inala by the end of this year. A byelection will be needed in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/inal">Inala</a>, which Palaszczuk won by 78.2–21.8 against the Liberal Nationals in 2020. </p>
<p>Steven Miles replaced Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier last Friday after he was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-15/labor-caucus-endorses-steven-miles-as-queensland-premier/103227896">elected unopposed</a> by Labor MPs.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk has been premier since leading Labor to a surprise victory at the 2015 state election, but she has become increasingly unpopular. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">wrote two weeks ago</a> that Labor is likely to lose the next election due in October 2024.</p>
<h2>WA Redbridge poll: Labor has huge lead</h2>
<p>The next Western Australian state election is in March 2025. A Redbridge poll was reported by <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/wa-state-round-up-redbridge-poll-and-preselections-a-z/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday. It gave Labor a 59.4–40.6 lead, from primary votes of 44% Labor, 29% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 11% Greens, 3% One Nation and 9% for all Others. This would be a 10% swing to the Liberals from the record 2021 Labor landslide, but it’s still a huge lead for Labor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/weekend-miscellany-redbridge-wa-polling-trusted-politicians-senate-vacancies-and-more-open-thread/">federal WA Redbridge poll</a> gave Labor a 55.2–44.8 lead, unchanged from the 2922 federal WA result of 55.0–45.0 to Labor. The sample size was 1,200.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polling suggests Labor’s position might be improving slightly, perhaps due to increased optimism about the state of the economy.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197012023-12-12T05:09:32Z2023-12-12T05:09:32ZWho is Queensland’s next premier, Steven Miles?<p>When Queensland’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/qld-premier-palaszczuk-announces-resignation/103211206">over the weekend</a>, she indicated her preferred successor would be her deputy, Steven Miles. </p>
<p>He promptly nominated for the leadership. He <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-12/steven-miles-premier-of-queensland-shannon-fentiman-withdraws/103214566">avoided a leadership contest</a> between himself, Health Minister Shannon Fentiman and Treasurer Cameron Dick.</p>
<p>A compromise between Miles’ left faction and Dick’s right has negotiated Miles as Queensland’s 40th premier and Dick as his deputy. It’ll be made official when the party caucus meets on Friday.</p>
<p>But who is Steven Miles, and what kind of premier can we expect him to be as Queensland heads toward an election in 2024?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-annastacia-palaszczuk-gone-can-labor-achieve-the-unachievable-in-queensland-219573">With Annastacia Palaszczuk gone, can Labor achieve the unachievable in Queensland?</a>
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<h2>A union man with a PhD</h2>
<p>In some ways, Miles’ journey closely resonates with some broader trends for Queensland Labor in recent years. </p>
<p>Very rarely for a politician, Miles has completed a PhD, seeking to understand how trade unions motivate their memberships through workplace activism. </p>
<p>Following this he worked as a consultant helping improve the campaigns of progressive causes, as state director of a public sector union and as a political advisor to Labor politicians. </p>
<p>Miles fits the mould of someone who has made progressive, union-affiliated politics their career. </p>
<p>However, like many union members in contemporary society, he is a highly educated professional, rather than the blue-collar rabblerouser of yesteryear. </p>
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<p>His political ambitions go back to 2009, where he unsuccessfully tried for pre-selection for the state election. He ran at the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-177.htm">2010 federal election</a> for the seat of Ryan, which encompasses the area of Brisbane’s leafy inner-north-west. He fell short again.</p>
<p>Miles’ first success came when he won the state seat of <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2015/results/district56.html">Mt-Cootha</a> for Labor from the LNP in 2015. </p>
<p>However, following a redistribution of boundaries in 2017, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-27/state-boundary-changes-prompt-steven-miles-to-plan-seat-change/8306146">he relocated</a> to the outer-metropolitan seat of Murrumba, north of Brisbane. In this way he was like an increasing number of young professionals and working families pushed outward by rising house prices. </p>
<p>With the recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/how-knocking-on-90000-doors-delivered-queensland-labor-heartland-to-the-greens">success of the Queensland Greens</a> in inner city electorates, and changing demographics in previously rural areas, Queensland Labor’s heartland and basis of support have moved outward. </p>
<p>The perceived priorities and everyday needs of young families and working people in these areas of population growth will likely guide how he governs and campaigns.</p>
<h2>Recognisable, for better or worse</h2>
<p>Miles, who has the backing of the powerful <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/shannon-fentiman-to-declare-leadership-plans-within-hours/news-story/273e76c8640d3b5b8ad0eb6dd8467460">United Workers Union</a>, has previously served in a number of ministerial portfolios including state development, environment and heritage protection.</p>
<p>Most famously, he served as health minister in the first year of the COVID pandemic. Given his appearances in daily press conferences, he likely has a high degree of recognition in the electorate. </p>
<p>Whether this is an asset for appealing to a broad cross-section of the Queensland public is debatable, given Miles also has a reputation as a party <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/feeding-the-chooks/attack-dog-steven-miles-raises-eyebrows-as-he-lays-into-andrew-laming/news-story/5d73df76f39e46131ad81d979b54c320">“attack dog”</a>. He caused controversy by appearing to use <a href="https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/queensland-deputy-premier-steven-miles-appears-to-call-prime-minister-scott-morrison-a-ct-c-2750603">uncivil language</a> when criticising former Prime Minister Scott Morrison. </p>
<p>Similiarly to Jackie Trad, whom he replaced as deputy premier following <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/jackie-trad-queensland-treasurer-corruption-investigation/12231356">her resignation</a> over alleged integrity issues and electoral defeat in 2020, Miles has been an outspoken advocate for progressive causes such as the environment and equitable access to education. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-if-her-leadership-is-now-doomed-annastacia-palaszczuk-will-still-be-a-labor-legend-in-queensland-212446">Even if her leadership is now doomed, Annastacia Palaszczuk will still be a Labor legend in Queensland</a>
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<h2>A battle on the bread and butter</h2>
<p>When declaring his intent to step forward as premier, Miles flagged his desire to address ongoing issues which dominate recent political debate in Queensland. </p>
<p>They’re issues familiar to people across the country, including the need to improve the public health system, addressing a lack of affordable housing for renters and buyers and ongoing problems with the cost of living. </p>
<p>With the 2032 Olympics and Paralympics also in the pipeline, large-scale infrastructure developments will be on the cards.</p>
<p>He will also look to manage the politics and implementation of Queensland’s transition to a <a href="https://www.treasury.qld.gov.au/investment/investment-programs-and-support/low-emissions-investment-partnerships/#:%7E:text=The%202023%E2%80%9324%20Queensland%20Budget,net%20zero%20by%202050.">low-emmission economy</a>: a potentially fraught process given the power of the mining lobby and concerns over losses of jobs in regional areas. </p>
<p>Interestingly, these are the same issues Opposition Leader David Crisafulli recently laid out as <a href="https://dclnp.org.au/2023/10/30/the-right-priorities-for-queenslands-future/">his priorities</a>, bar a couple of exceptions. </p>
<p>Miles will therefore have to manage the tension between defending the Labor government’s record on these “bread and butter” issues, and trying to present as a fresh, new leader who understands the concerns of everyday people. </p>
<p>Also similarly to Crisafulli, who avoided being drawn on conservative social issues like abortion during his campaign launch, Miles will likely downplay more contentious progressive reforms. This may prove a disappointment for left-leaning voters wanting more action on climate change, or the continued concerns around the <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/about/news/media-releases/national-childrens-commissioner-slams-shocking-new-qld-youth-justice-laws">detention of children</a> and minors in custody. </p>
<p>Instead, for the next year we will likely see a contest based on trust over the basics: economic management and delivery of public services under strain. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-myth-of-the-queensland-voter-australias-trust-deficit-and-the-path-to-indigenous-recognition-115569">The myth of 'the Queensland voter', Australia's trust deficit, and the path to Indigenous recognition</a>
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<p>His first test as leader comes in the form of a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-12/tropical-cyclone-jasper-flash-flooding-weather-warning-watch/103214862">cyclone</a> in the state’s north, which he was keen to address yesterday, rather than speculation about his rise to premier. </p>
<p>His next test may come at the election in October 2024, as Labor weathers storms on two fronts. In inner Brisbane, the Greens will be looking to consolidate their recent gains. In the regions and outer metropolitan growth areas, the government will be judged on its ability to address cost of living pressures not necessarily in their power to solve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Pandanus Petter receives funding for his work from the Australian Research Council as part of the Discovery project Understanding the Antipodean 'Fair Go' with Associate Professor Dr. Cosmo Howard, Professor Jennifer Curtin and Professor Juliet Pietsch.</span></em></p>Following the resignation of Annastacia Palaszczuk, the selection of her successor is a one-horse race. What do we know about the incoming premier, Steven Miles?Pandanus Petter, Research Fellow Centre for Governance and Public Policy, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195732023-12-10T06:53:50Z2023-12-10T06:53:50ZWith Annastacia Palaszczuk gone, can Labor achieve the unachievable in Queensland?<p>Democracies are, by nature, systems of stability and change.</p>
<p>But, north of the Tweed River, Queensland politics is very much about stability, and only a little about change. Where, for example, New South Wales has seen nine premiers over the past 20 years, Queensland has seen just four.</p>
<p>Yet a changing of the guard is now occurring after Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk – the daughter of a Labor cabinet minister and the last of the “COVID-19 era” premiers – tearfully announced her resignation as the state’s 39th (and second woman) premier. With the coming of the “silly season”, this is the perfect time for leadership transition: Labor can begin 2024 with a clean page.</p>
<p>When Palaszczuk departs on Friday, she will have served eight years and 305 days, becoming Queensland’s fifth-longest – and Labor’s third-longest – serving premier. She has represented the very safe Labor seat of Inala in Brisbane’s southwest since 2006.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk was elected Labor leader in 2012 to head a Labor rump of just seven MPs after Campbell Newman’s Liberal-National Party routed the Bligh Labor government. With the aid of a trade union campaign against an LNP plan to privatise state assets, Labor fell into minority government just three years later. It was the most remarkable turnaround in political fortunes in modern Australian history.</p>
<p>But Palaszczuk – who became the first woman to lead an opposition into government in an Australian federal or state (but not territory) election, the first woman to attain three successive election victories, and the first to lead a majority-female cabinet in Australia – was no “accidental premier”; she was a popular leader in her own right. </p>
<p>In carving out a new style of leadership – positioned somewhere between the amiable Peter Beattie and the administrative Anna Bligh – Palaszczuk blended a “next door neighbour” folksiness with a Queensland-first populism to forge a new type of “strong” yet accessible leader. That model of leadership was writ large via hard border closures during the early days of COVID-19, which saw Palaszczuk rewarded at the 2020 election with an increased parliamentary majority.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-if-her-leadership-is-now-doomed-annastacia-palaszczuk-will-still-be-a-labor-legend-in-queensland-212446">Even if her leadership is now doomed, Annastacia Palaszczuk will still be a Labor legend in Queensland</a>
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<p>More than a year after that victory, Labor – according to a February <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fqld-politics%2Flnp-closing-the-cap-on-labors-lead-in-the-polls-annastacia-palaszczuk-viewed-less-favourably%2Fnews-story%2F456de963cc25e13c2de2bc41a025a4f1&memtype=registered&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-1-SCORE">YouGov survey</a> – was still polling 39% of the primary vote (compared to 38% for the LNP), leading the LNP after preferences by 52% to 48%. </p>
<p>Moreover, Palaszczuk still enjoyed a <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fqld-politics%2Flnp-closing-the-cap-on-labors-lead-in-the-polls-annastacia-palaszczuk-viewed-less-favourably%2Fnews-story%2F456de963cc25e13c2de2bc41a025a4f1&memtype=registered&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-1-SCORE">net satisfaction rating</a> of plus-14 points. </p>
<p>Fast forward to late 2023, a Resolve-Strategic Poll pegged Labor’s primary vote at a mere at 33% (compared to 37% for the LNP). </p>
<p>With an October YouGov poll previously finding Labor trailing the LNP after preferences, 48% to 52% – a swing of five points from 2020 – Labor was set to lose 10 seats to the LNP (mostly in the regions) and at least two seats in Brisbane to the Greens. </p>
<p>Resolve-Strategic also found 39% preferring LNP leader David Crisafulli as premier, compared to 34% for Palaszczuk. Crisafulli <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fqld-politics%2Fyougov-poll-reveals-annastacia-palaszczuk-no-longer-preferred-premier%2Fnews-story%2F739ed4485028925e82247c51b2c27dd7&memtype=registered&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-1-SCORE">also enjoyed</a> a net approval rating of plus-nine points, while Palaszczuk had a net approval of minus-17. Rarely have we seen a once-widely admired leader become so widely disparaged.</p>
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<p>So what went wrong for Palaszczuk?</p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s most serious challenge emerged in early 2022, when questions of integrity were raised, including allegations of a partisan Crime and Corruption Commission, of ministerial staff bullying public servants, of too-cosy relationships with lobbyists, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-15/qld-annastacia-palaszczuk-integrity-commissioner-nikola-stepanov/100828498">alleged interference</a> in the work of the integrity commissioner. </p>
<p>The ordering of three inquiries stabilised Labor’s stocks. But, by late 2022, clever attacks by the LNP opposition (led by a moderate Crisafulli, who was by then building a high media profile) on Palaszczuk as a “part-time”, “checked-out” and “red carpet” premier proved stunningly successful. Coupled with crises in the cost of living, youth crime, housing and hospital ramping, Palaszczuk and Labor appeared directionless by 2023.</p>
<p>In August 2023, while the premier enjoyed an overseas holiday, speculation mounted that her decline in the polls meant a departure was imminent. But, on her return, Palaszczuk stood in the parliament, dug in her heels and reminded Queenslanders she was the boss. The fact Palaszczuk has only now succumbed to pressure suggests Labor’s internal power dynamics have changed during the past three months. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it's close in Queensland</a>
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<p>Palaszczuk insists her poor approval ratings have nothing to do with the timing of her departure. Instead, she says, she decided to make way for change after seeing “new faces” at last week’s National Cabinet meeting. But it’s more likely party chieftains, especially those leading trade unions affiliated with the now-dominant Left faction, last week gave the premier a gentle “shoulder tap” and suggested her leadership was no longer tenable. </p>
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<p>Palaszczuk has already endorsed her deputy (and Left faction leader) Steven Miles as the next premier, despite her factional colleague and treasurer, Cameron Dick, often being touted for succession. Given the Left has controlled the Labor parliamentary party since 2015, Miles will inevitably become premier, although there is emerging caucus support for another Left star, Health Minister Shannon Fentiman. </p>
<p>There will, however, be no ballot. Given Queensland Labor rule changes in 2015 – where ballots for leadership contests are shared equally among caucus, rank and file members and trade union representatives – a drawn-out public brawl with a Labor Party in limbo will be avoided at all costs.</p>
<p>If victorious, the more softly-spoken Miles will bring a change of pace to a Queensland premiership where loud voices are the norm. Miles, 46, is a former small businessman who holds a doctorate in political science. The married father of three, who worked for the public sector Together Union, won the leafy Brisbane seat of Mt Coot-tha in 2015, then switched to the outer-Brisbane seat of Murrumba in 2017. He has previously served as minister for the environment and minister for health. </p>
<p>That Miles is poised to take the premiership today is arguably an accident of history. First, it is unusual for Queensland Labor to be dominated by the Left. Second, Miles was promoted to the deputy position in May 2020 only because former deputy premier and Left leader, Jacqui Trad, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-10/queensland-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-responds-to-jackie-trad/12231616">resigned from cabinet</a> following an investigation by the state’s corruption watchdog. Trad lost her seat to the Greens on LNP preferences in 2020.</p>
<p>Miles was not initially well-received as deputy premier, with voters anecdotally disliking him, and especially his attempts at the “attack dog” role deputies so often assume. </p>
<p>But, serving as acting premier during numerous Palaszczuk absences, other anecdotal evidence suggests Miles has garnered a degree of respect. </p>
<p>So we can expect a business-as-usual approach from a Miles cabinet. There will be heavy investment in infrastructure, especially in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, and in the regions; major strides toward clean energy (although coal, with recent royalty hikes, will still loom large); and a deep commitment to social justice, especially First Nations peoples, in the wake of the Voice to Parliament referendum’s defeat. </p>
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<p>The final question, whether Miles can turn a certain Labor defeat in the 2024 state election into a Labor victory, is as yet unanswerable. A fourth Labor term, even if in minority government with the Greens, is still possible, but far from probable. The LNP requires a 6.1% after-preference swing to snare the 14 seats it needs for majority government.</p>
<p>Until yesterday, Palaszczuk’s increasingly unpopular leadership was the biggest impediment to a Labor victory on October 26, 2024. That hurdle has now been removed. If inflation, as expected, cools next year, and if Miles can demonstrate some traditionally “strong” leadership and law and order populism – and mitigate hospital ramping and social housing shortages with immediate and tangible results – then Labor has a real chance.</p>
<p>Queensland politics just got interesting again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Assoc. Prof. Paul Williams is an associate with the T. J. Ryan Foundation</span></em></p>The first woman to become premier from opposition, and the first to win three elections, Palaszczuk has announced her retirement from politics.Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190122023-12-05T23:08:24Z2023-12-05T23:08:24ZLabor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November article on Resolve</a>, I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">week’s Newspoll</a> had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-peter-dutton-is-winning-the-border-wars-against-anthony-albanese-20231204-p5eops.html">Anthony Albanese’s performance</a>, 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).</p>
<p>Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).</p>
<p>By 43–18, voters supported the government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-voters-back-plan-to-rein-in-ndis-costs-20231204-p5eovf.html">limiting spending growth on the NDIS</a> to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9416-federal-voting-intention-december-3-2023">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).</p>
<p>Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-peta-murphy-dies-aged-50-20231204-p5eov4.html">died from breast cancer</a> on Monday. In <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm">2022</a>, Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.</p>
<h2>It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/support-for-labor-steadies-despite-dip-in-palaszczuk-s-popularity-20231205-p5ep30.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/05/resolve-strategic-lnp-37-labor-33-greens-12-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">Queensland YouGov poll</a>, in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).</p>
<p>It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/shannon-fentiman-denies-she-has-been-approached-to-replace-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/3abf1b67a095ab4b383689b1f1677005">recent speculation</a> that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.</p>
<h2>Tasmania, WA and the NT</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/6567dd27d6227f53ebff4ac0/1701305655222/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+November+2023.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.</p>
<p>In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).</p>
<p>The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/01/western-australian-state-redistribution-finalised/">Poll Bludger</a> said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.</p>
<p>Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">2021 WA election</a>, in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Northern-Territory-Social-Services-11.pdf">Redbridge Northern Territory poll</a>, conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.</p>
<p>If these results were replicated at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Northern_Territory_general_election">next NT election</a> in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the latest poll gives the Labor government a comfortable lead, this is not supported by other polls.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190042023-12-03T19:16:52Z2023-12-03T19:16:52ZHyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support<p>If you listen to the dreamers, hydrogen is the magical <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen">fuel of the future</a> that can replace everything from the petrol in your car to the coal in a steelworks.</p>
<p><a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/2022-state-hydrogen-report-reinforces-australias-green-hydrogen-powerhouse-potential">Hype around hydrogen</a> has been building in Australia since at least 2018. Every <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/western-australian-renewable-hydrogen-strategy-and-roadmap">government</a> has a <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/government-strategies-and-frameworks/nsw-hydrogen-strategy">hydrogen strategy</a>. Hydrogen has been promoted as a <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/australias-green-hydrogen-hour-has-arrived">replacement for our coal and gas exports</a>, and even <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/australias-major-parties-climate-action-policy-2022/">our major parties agree</a> on its role in Australia’s energy transition.</p>
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<p>In my previous job as a federal public servant, I worked with the then Chief Scientist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Finkel">Alan Finkel</a> and state and territory governments to develop Australia’s first <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">National Hydrogen Strategy</a>.</p>
<p>We were excited by hydrogen’s seemingly endless possibilities, from replacing natural gas in homes to fuelling cars and trains, to an export industry to rival liquid natural gas. The strategy acknowledged considerable uncertainty around these potential uses, but urged governments to seize the opportunities.</p>
<h2>High costs and hard times for hydrogen</h2>
<p>Since we published the strategy in 2019, the world has changed. The <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/recovery-plan-europe_en">European Union’s stimulus spending</a> in response to the pandemic shifted the focus of industry development from Asia to Europe. Last year the passage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">US Inflation Reduction Act</a> began pumping subsidies into industry development in the United States, too.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-unsafe-safeguard-mechanism-how-carbon-credits-could-blow-up-australias-main-climate-policy-213874">The unsafe Safeguard Mechanism: how carbon credits could blow up Australia's main climate policy</a>
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<p>We also know a lot more about the logistics of hydrogen supply chains. Earlier hydrogen policy – such as <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/taylor-sets-a-target-for-hydrogen-under-2-20200226-p544jo">Australia’s “H2 under $2” target</a>, set in 2020 – assumed demand would magically appear when hydrogen’s production price reached parity with fossil fuels.</p>
<p>This assumption ignored the high costs of moving hydrogen from point of production to point of use, storing it, and switching to new assets that can use it.</p>
<p>Today we know more about where hydrogen might be used to decarbonise the economy. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-want-industry-and-theyd-like-it-green-steel-is-the-place-to-start-137999">2020 Grattan Institute report</a> found that rather than exporting hydrogen, Australia had an opportunity to use it to value-add to Australia’s largest export – iron ore.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">Grattan Institute’s work also showed</a> that using hydrogen to replace gas in Australian homes was a poor economic choice. Worldwide, a consensus is emerging that switching to green electricity is the most economic way to reduce most energy-related emissions. Hydrogen will rarely be the cheapest option.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-growth-or-degrowth-what-is-the-right-way-to-tackle-climate-change-218239">Green growth or degrowth: what is the right way to tackle climate change?</a>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Australia is already struggling</a> with the scale and pace of its energy transition. The scale of construction <a href="https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Net-Zero-Australia-final-results-launch-event-presentation-19-April-23.pdf">required to be a green energy superpower</a> looks well out of reach. It’s time to bring Australia’s hydrogen dreams down to earth.</p>
<h2>Three potential hydrogen industries</h2>
<p>Grattan Institute’s latest report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/hydrogen-hype-hope-or-hard-work/">Hydrogen: hype, hope, or hard work</a>? identifies three hydrogen uses – ammonia manufacturing, high-temperature alumina processing - and green iron production – that Australian governments should focus on. </p>
<p>Hydrogen is either the only or the most promising technical option to decarbonise these commodities. They would be large users of hydrogen, capable of producing viable export industries built on a supply chain big enough to lower costs.</p>
<p>But for all three, the cost of using hydrogen instead of conventional fossil fuel is prohibitively high. Unless this cost gap is closed, these industries won’t have a future in Australia. If governments want them as part of their “<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">green superpower</a>” vision, they need to act.</p>
<p>A big share of the cost of hydrogen comes from the cost of the electricity used to make it. So above all, governments must continue to transform Australia’s electricity sector to push down power prices. Without cheap renewable electricity, our hydrogen dreams and green superpower ambitions disappear.</p>
<h2>The need for industry policy</h2>
<p>Even with lower electricity costs, making <a href="https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/climate-change-science-solutions/climate-science-solutions-hydrogen-ammonia.pdf">ammonia</a>, <a href="https://arena.gov.au/news/renewable-hydrogen-could-reduce-emissions-in-alumina-refining/">alumina</a> and <a href="https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/Hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-steel-production.htm">iron</a> from hydrogen is still likely to be very expensive.</p>
<p>This cost can be reduced in two ways. First, make the fossil fuel alternative more expensive. The <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reporting/national-greenhouse-energy-reporting-scheme/safeguard-mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20Safeguard%20Mechanism%20is%20the,gas%20emissions%20of%20these%20facilities.">Safeguard Mechanism</a> puts a price on Australia’s industrial emissions, but it’s not enough to make hydrogen an economic alternative.</p>
<p>Second, use <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/why-australia-needs-a-21st-century-industry-policy/">industry policy</a> to give these industries a financial leg-up, rather than leaving everything to market forces.</p>
<p>Unlike the EU and the US, though, Australia is a small economy, with little fiscal capacity to undertake industry policy. Instead of introducing US-style tax credits, which could quickly drain treasury coffers, Australia should be strategic with industry policy, building industries with a long-term, subsidy-free future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-just-transition-to-net-zero-and-why-is-australia-struggling-to-get-there-218706">What is a 'just' transition to net zero - and why is Australia struggling to get there?</a>
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<p>Much of the extra cost to create these industries comes from the high cost of production, rather than the initial capital expenditure. Investors will be reluctant to lend to ammonia, alumina, and steel companies to help them make a product that is more expensive than competitors.</p>
<p>To help green commodity producers to grow and become competitive while using hydrogen is expensive, the government should underwrite their returns by introducing “<a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/exclusive-european-commission-is-considering-contracts-for-difference-for-green-hydrogen-offtakers/2-1-1561729">contracts-for-difference</a>”. These instruments pay producers for the gap between their higher costs and the price the market is willing to pay. As their costs fall so does government support, leaving behind a plant producing a low-to-zero emissions product that has buyers.</p>
<h2>We can’t wait</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/ongoing/trade-assistance/2021-22/tar-2021-22.pdf">It’s tempting to say costs will come down with time, or that governments in the US and EU can do this work of reducing costs</a>. But a sitting-back approach has a big opportunity cost for Australia. Industrial supply chains are geographically “sticky” – once capital has been invested in assets at one end of the chain, these assets don’t tend to move.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<p>If Australia waits for the US and the EU to drive down costs, we are allowing them to anchor sticky supply chains in their economies. In a world without subsidies, Australia might have a comparative advantage over some of these places, but once the supply chain has stuck in place, it is unlikely to move here to seize that advantage.</p>
<p>Deployment, not time, is what drives costs down. If Australian industry doesn’t start using hydrogen while it’s expensive, it won’t have the option to use hydrogen cheaply in the future. It’s time to stop dreaming and start the hard work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Reeve is a former public servant. She led the team which developed the Australian Government’s 2019 national hydrogen strategy. She has no financial interest in companies relevant to this article. Grattan Institute discloses all its donors on its website.</span></em></p>Australian governments have invested a lot of hope in hydrogen to help drive the net zero transition, but concrete policies are urgently needed or we will lose our hydrogen advantage to other nations.Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172802023-11-09T09:37:22Z2023-11-09T09:37:22ZGrattan on Friday: When Labor states don’t dance to the Albanese government’s tune<p>It’s helpful for the Albanese government to have all mainland states in Labor hands – but only up to a point. </p>
<p>This week we’ve seen the Queensland government bite back at federal plans to curb the national infrastructure program, while Victorian resistance to changes to the Murray-Darling water plan prompted Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek to lash out. </p>
<p>Infrastructure is always a vexed issue. The program is full of pork barrelling, whoever is in power. Even when that’s not involved, what to build and when it should be built is often contested. </p>
<p>In May, the government announced a 90-day review of the $120 billion infrastructure pipeline it inherited from the Coalition.</p>
<p>Infrastructure Minister Catherine King said projects had increased from about 150 to 800. The government’s aim was to reduce the number of projects (many of them small) and rearrange priorities.</p>
<p>High inflation, cost overruns and shortages of labour and materials are plaguing the program.</p>
<p>The political difficulties of abolishing or changing projects, often involving negotiation with states and territories, are obvious enough. Now they have become significantly worse. </p>
<p>The government has received its stocktake, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the overall cost of the program has blown out by some $33 billion. </p>
<p>Also, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/10/31/cs103123-australia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2023-article-iv#:%7E:text=Australia's%20economy%20has%20been%20resilient,after%20a%20correction%20in%202022.">an International Monetary Fund report</a> last week said infrastructure projects should be rolled out at a “more measured and co-ordinated pace, given supply constraints, to alleviate inflationary pressures”.</p>
<p>Chalmers is pushing this message, but it’s not being received well in Queensland. </p>
<p>State Treasurer Cameron Dick was blunt. “Queensland is Australia’s growth state and we need more infrastructure, not less,” <a href="https://twitter.com/camerondickqld/status/1720977443337691323">he said in a tweet</a>. “If infrastructure cuts are needed, they should be made to southern states with low growth and high debt.” (Fun fact: the electorate offices of Queenslanders Chalmers and Dick share a common wall.)</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/road-rail-projects-need-to-be-cut-to-take-heat-out-of-inflation-treasurer/news-story/a99b728bdff427ae13cb879700b19ed1">Queensland Police Minister Mark Ryan said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’ve got a clear message for Jim. Jim’s a mate of mine. Jim, those projects better not be in Queensland.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The last thing the Palaszczuk government wants is for projects to be cancelled, slashed or delayed. It is in a particularly precarious position – it faces an election in a year’s time and will be fighting for survival.</p>
<p>Queensland has an obvious political self-interest in resisting infrastructure cuts, but there’s a national point too. With large numbers of migrants coming into Australia, the demand for transport and other infrastructure will be increasing, rather than decreasing. Whatever cuts and slowdowns are made will need to be well judged. </p>
<p>The federal government argues the existing pipeline is unrealistic and without change could not be delivered anyway. But even if the decisions about what to cut, scale back or defer are economically sound, in political terms they could store up electoral time bombs for the government. </p>
<p>Even minor and unworthy projects can be sensitive in marginal seats. Scrapping them could open opportunities for the opposition. Also, available funds for new projects presumably will be limited. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-transport-minister-catherine-king-struggles-to-find-a-landing-strip-amid-qatar-turbulence-213076">Grattan on Friday: Transport Minister Catherine King struggles to find a landing strip amid Qatar turbulence</a>
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<p>When the government finishes its negotiations with the states and the outcomes are announced, King will be the main minister defending the decisions. </p>
<p>As we saw in the row over the rejection of Qatar Airways’ bid for extra flights, she struggles when under pressure. She could find the task challenging. </p>
<p>The fight over the government’s water changes centre on its planned amendments to the Murray-Darling Basin plan. </p>
<p>The legislation, soon to be considered by the Senate, broadens the activities that can be funded and extends the times for delivery of water-recovery projects. Most importantly, it removes the cap on the federal government’s “buybacks” of extra water for the environment. </p>
<p>The Murray-Darling plan is always fraught, because the interests of upstream and downstream users and their governments differ. Nevertheless, Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales have signed on – although NSW has done so reluctantly. </p>
<p>But Victoria, where the Andrews government has built a close relationship with irrigators, has held out, defending its position on the basis of work done by Frontier Economics. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-cost-of-living-crisis-is-the-dragon-the-government-cant-slay-216441">Grattan on Friday: Cost-of-living crisis is the dragon the government can't slay</a>
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<p>Its report argues that “previous water recovery has resulted in less irrigation […] putting the viability of major irrigation districts and the industries and communities they support under pressure”.</p>
<p>“Further water recovery from irrigators (buybacks and on-farm projects) will add to the impacts already being felt and undermine the ability of irrigation communities to plan for the future.”</p>
<p>Plibersek declared, <a href="https://www.tanyaplibersek.com/media/transcripts/abc-radio-national-breakfast-with-patricia-karvelas/">in an interview with the ABC</a>, that it was “extraordinary that we’ve got a Labor government using dodgy modelling to join up with Barnaby Joyce and David Littleproud”. </p>
<p>Victoria’s Water Minister Harriet Shing retorts: “This isn’t about party politics, and it’s disappointing to see it framed that way. We don’t apologise for standing up for Victorian communities and environments.”</p>
<p>But Plibersek has backing from Jamie Pittock, from the Australian National University’s Fenner School of Environment and Society. He says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Victorian government can usually be relied on to make decisions based on solid data. In the case of the Murray-Darling Basin, bizarrely, it has relied on low-quality consultants’ reports that exaggerate the socio-economic costs and ignore the benefits from water buybacks.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The legislation will come to a vote in the Senate this year, and there will be wrangling with the crossbench. </p>
<p>Assuming the legislation passes, the federal government can override Victoria and proceed with the buybacks of water for the environment. But it will still face the opposition of farming and irrigator groups, and some local communities. </p>
<p>It would be hard to find political observers who believe Peter Dutton can win the next election, due by May 2025. But there is increasing talk about the possibility that Labor, given it has a very narrow majority, could find itself in minority government. (Contrast a year ago, when all the talk was about Labor’s prospects for increasing its majority.)</p>
<p>Being pushed into minority is something Albanese – a senior figure in the minority Gillard government – would want to avoid at all costs. It would hamper the government’s flexibility to pursue its program, mean constant negotiation with crossbenchers including bolshie Greens, and encourage the Coalition to run maximum disruption. </p>
<p>The challenge of keeping out of minority increases the importance of the “ground game” in Labor’s marginal electorates. And it could make controversies over local issues – scrapped infrastructure projects, or unpopular new ventures including ugly transmission lines for renewable energy – potentially dangerous for the incumbents in those seats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217280/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Infrastructure is always a vexed issue. The program is full of pork barrelling, whoever is in power. Even when that’s not involved, what to build and when it should be built is often contested.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124462023-08-31T20:00:54Z2023-08-31T20:00:54ZEven if her leadership is now doomed, Annastacia Palaszczuk will still be a Labor legend in Queensland<p>Whatever fate awaits Annastacia Palaszczuk over the coming weeks, Queensland’s 39th – and only the second woman – premier will never lose her standing in the Australian Labor pantheon.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk, the state Labor leader since 2012 and premier since 2015, is already Australia’s most successful female political leader. She was the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/from-pala-who-to-premier-the-rise-and-rise-of-annastacia-palaszczuk/mns6vln9o">first woman</a> to lead an opposition into government in an Australian state or federal election, the <a href="https://www.mamamia.com.au/annastacia-palaszczuk-queensland-election/">first woman</a> to attain three successive election victories in Australia, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-day-of-firsts-for-women-in-politics-and-one-in-particular-37115">first head</a> of a majority-female cabinet. </p>
<p>If Palaszczuk can survive the building pressure on her to resign, she could next year become Queensland’s fourth longest-serving – and Labor’s second longest-serving – premier since 1860. But that prospect is becoming increasingly unlikely. </p>
<p>In July, a Freshwater Strategy poll for the Australian Financial Review <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/palaszczuk-on-track-to-lose-in-2024-poll-20230704-p5dlp1">found</a> just 39% of Queenslanders now approve of Palaszczuk’s leadership, with 47% disapproving – a net negative of eight points. </p>
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<p>And an August Resolve Strategic Poll <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/18/resolve-strategic-lnp-38-labor-32-greens-11-in-queensland/">showed</a> 37% of respondents preferring Liberal-National Party Opposition leader David Crisafulli as premier, compared to 36% who preferred Palaszczuk. This was the first time in almost a decade an LNP leader has taken the lead.</p>
<p>What a far cry from the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic. In July 2020, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/popular-queensland-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-but-poll-party-postponed/news-story/b3cfaad162045d1bb9edec092f215e2e">Newspoll</a> found 64% of Queenslanders approving of Palaszczuk’s leadership, with 81% approving of her management of the pandemic and subsequent hard border closures. Just 29% disapproved of her leadership – a net positive of 35 points. </p>
<p>Worse for Labor, Resolve now pegs LNP first-preference support at 38% (up three points since the 2020 election), with Labor at just 32% (down seven). The LNP also has an after-preference lead of 53–47% over Labor. </p>
<p>If this lead is held, it would likely be enough to allow the LNP to win the 14 seats needed for majority government in next October’s election. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">Did someone say 'election'?: how politics met pandemic to create 'fortress Queensland'</a>
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<h2>A perception of a ‘checked-out’ premier</h2>
<p>To outsiders it might appear Palaszczuk – who has dominated Queensland politics like no other since <a href="https://www.slq.qld.gov.au/blog/peter-beattie-inside-story">Peter Beattie</a> more than a decade ago – has suffered a rapid fall from grace. But Palaszczuk’s decline has been a slow burn. </p>
<p>A year after <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/palaszczuk-wins-third-term-20201031-p56ael">securing</a> her third term as premier in the 2020 election, Palaszczuk was wholly untroubled by a virtually unknown opposition leader. </p>
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<p>But, by early 2022, Palaszczuk had found herself enmeshed in several integrity crises, including accusations the Crime and Corruption Commission had not been impartial in its investigation of alleged local government corruption, and that senior public servants had allegedly suffered political interference from ministerial staff. </p>
<p>Worse, Palaszczuk appeared slow to respond to the allegations before appointing three separate inquiries. One inquiry, under Professor Peter Coaldrake, <a href="https://www.coaldrakereview.qld.gov.au/reports.aspx">published</a> unfavourable findings.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk issues surprise apology after integrity questions.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The effect was rapid and seismic: the hitherto Teflon Palaszczuk now looked flawed, and opinion polls soon reflected Labor’s vulnerability. By June 2022, YouGov had <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/yougov-poll-reveals-queensland-would-face-hung-parliament-if-election-held-today/news-story/6626176ebca3cd2413e7790485cbfaa4">revealed</a> a five-point collapse in Labor’s primary vote, with the LNP, now on 38%, leading Labor for the first time. </p>
<p>But as the dust settled on Labor’s integrity issues, the LNP and a conservative news media cleverly switched narratives. Palaszczuk was then framed as a “<a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/premier-cancels-meeting-for-luxury-yacht-trip-with-boyfriend/news-story/2bacc9389c75103902336ece72f6faae">checked-out</a>”, “red carpet” premier more interested in mixing with celebrities and attending glitzy gala events with her new partner. </p>
<p>That narrative appeared to gain public traction when, in August last year, the media accused Palaszczuk of <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/premier-cancels-meeting-for-luxury-yacht-trip-with-boyfriend/news-story/2bacc9389c75103902336ece72f6faae">cancelling</a> a cabinet meeting to spend time on a luxury yacht. The coincidental circumstance of Palaszczuk last week leaving for a holiday in Italy, just as the media storm broke over her leadership troubles, can only deepen perceptions of a “part-time” premier.</p>
<p>As public policy crises have continued to dominate the media over the past year, the accusation that Palaszczuk has taken her eye off the policy ball has only gained further traction. With a soaring cost of living, deepening housing crisis, overcrowded hospitals and budget blowouts in infrastructure projects, it’s little wonder voters have started to turn on her government. </p>
<p>But, more than any other, it’s the issue of youth crime that has most profoundly brought Palaszczuk’s leadership into question. Her government has been roundly <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-not-only-trampling-the-rights-of-children-it-is-setting-a-concerning-legal-precedent-212377">criticised</a> for the hastily passed legislation last week that could see children held “indefinitely” in Queensland watch houses – a move that was resisted by Labor’s majority Left faction. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-not-only-trampling-the-rights-of-children-it-is-setting-a-concerning-legal-precedent-212377">Queensland is not only trampling the rights of children, it is setting a concerning legal precedent</a>
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<h2>Who might step into her large shoes?</h2>
<p>In short, Palaszczuk has been Labor’s best asset in Queensland since 2012; now she appears a liability. </p>
<p>Despite unconvincing reassurances from senior government ministers that Palaszczuk will lead Labor to the October 2024 election, the momentum of leadership change now appears beyond the point of no return. It’s almost certain Queensland will have a new Labor premier, possibly by the end of this month. </p>
<p>There appear to be only three candidates: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Steven Miles, the deputy premier and leader of the Left faction of the party</p></li>
<li><p>Shannon Fentiman, the health minister and a member of the Left faction</p></li>
<li><p>Cameron Dick, the treasurer and head of Labor Forum, a right Labor faction </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Dick has long been touted as a future premier but, given the Left has controlled the Labor caucus since 2015, either a Miles or Fentiman premiership is the more likely outcome. </p>
<p>Because Queensland Labor rules around leadership spills are so complicated – a ballot must be held in caucus, among grassroots members and among the unions – it’s likely Palaszczuk will be urged to resign when she returns from her holiday, with a single candidate emerging as her successor. </p>
<p>Either way, the next Labor leader would have very large shoes to fill. Labor had suffered a rout in the 2012 election, with the LNP capturing 78 seats in the 89-seat parliament – the <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22library/prspub/1695517%22">then-largest majority</a> in Australian history. When Palaszczuk put her hand up to lead the seven remaining Labor MPs, nobody would believe she’d <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/QldElect">topple</a> the once-popular premier, Campbell Newman, just three years later. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-annastacia-palaszczuk-queenslands-likely-next-premier-37023">Who is Annastacia Palaszczuk, Queensland’s likely next premier?</a>
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<p>But, by 2015, Queenslanders had been angered by Newman’s proposal to privatise state-owned assets. They also appeared tired of big personalities like Joh Bjelke-Petersen, Peter Beattie and Newman. Even those in regional Queensland warmed to a Labor leader who looked and sounded like a friendly next-door neighbour. </p>
<p>Will a leadership change be too little, too late to reverse the fortunes of a Labor Party looking for a fourth term? Probably. But it’s foolish to completely write off the party that has dominated Queensland politics for 28 of the past 33 years. </p>
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<p><em>Correction: This story has been amended to specify that Palaszczuk was the first woman to lead an opposition into government in an Australian state or federal election, not anywhere in Australia. It had previously happened in the ACT and Northern Territory.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is an associate with Queensland's T. J. Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>The once-popular Queensland premier is facing growing pressure to resign. How did Palaszczuk lose the public’s faith, and who could replace her?Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116742023-08-21T05:15:06Z2023-08-21T05:15:06ZLNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-ahead-in-the-polls-as-voters-consider-crisafulli-over-palaszczuk-20230815-p5dwmf.html">Resolve</a> poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted from May to August with a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 38% of the primary vote (up five since January to April), Labor 32% (down three), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 8% (up one), independents 8% (down two) and others 3% (up one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two-party estimate until near elections, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/18/resolve-strategic-lnp-38-labor-32-greens-11-in-queensland/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated a 51.5–48.5 lead for the LNP from this poll, a 4.5-point gain for the LNP <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">since April</a>.</p>
<p>Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor. The only other recent Queensland poll was an early July <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">Freshwater poll</a> that gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability has deteriorated this year. She was at net +8 in the poll conducted in late 2022, net -5 in early 2023 and now net -15 in this poll. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved six points from April to +7. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk by 37–36 as preferred premier, reversing a Palaszczuk lead of 39–31 in April.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Queensland_state_election">early 2015</a>, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state. It was the only state the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">Coalition won at the 2022 federal election</a>.</p>
<p>By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor for voters.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but still far ahead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-lead-stays-strong-but-andrews-personal-popularity-falls-20230816-p5dx0e.html">Victorian state Resolve</a> poll for The Age, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample of 1,047, gave Labor 39% of the primary vote (down two since June), the Coalition 28% (up two), the Greens 13% (down two), independents 13% (up one) and others 7% (up one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/17/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-28-greens-13-in-victoria/">Poll Bludger</a> estimated this poll would give Labor a 60–40 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition <a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">since June</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains</a>
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<p>Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’ net likeability was down eight points since June to -7, while Liberal leader John Pesutto’s net likeability was up four points to -9. Andrews led Pesutto as preferred premier by 44–29 (49–26 in June).</p>
<p>In questions asked only of the August sample, voters opposed the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games by a 39–35 margin, but those supporting the cancellation would include people who thought Victoria should not have offered to hold the games in the first place.</p>
<p>Respondents were opposed by 44–30 to the decision to ban gas connections to new homes from next year. By 49–30, they supported <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-answer-is-more-housing-victorian-rental-caps-off-the-table-20230817-p5dxck.html">freezing rent levels</a> so owners can only increase rent every two years.</p>
<p>The July federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Resolve poll</a> was conducted entirely before the games cancellation was <a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/more-sports/bombshell-announcement-leaves-26b-commonwealth-games-in-tatters/news-story/95bcca71bfc734d740a254a6273362f6">announced</a> on July 18, so only the August part of this poll would include reaction to this decision.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed</a>
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<h2>Federal Morgan and Redbridge polls give Labor large leads</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted August 7–13 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9469-roy-morgan-update-august-15-2023">sample</a> of 1,452, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 34.5% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others. Labor’s lead in Morgan has <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685">increased recently</a> from a low of 52–48 in late July.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/20/weekend-miscellany-newspoll-developments-climate-polling-labor-national-executive-ballot/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Sunday that a Redbridge federal poll, conducted last week from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55.6–44.4 lead, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 32% Coalition, 10% Greens and 21% for all others.</p>
<h2>Additional federal Resolve questions</h2>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">previously covered</a> the slide in Labor’s vote, Albanese’s ratings and support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-spurn-idea-of-early-poll-over-housing-deadlock-20230815-p5dwjs.html">additional questions</a> from this poll, 54% wanted the next federal election after a full term is served in early 2025, while 20% wanted an early election in 2024. By 35–33, respondents did not think Labor’s housing policy important enough to call a special early election of both houses of parliament.</p>
<p>On housing policy, 30% agreed with Labor’s position, 24% with the Coalition, 18% with the Greens and 28% were undecided.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-crisis-drives-slump-in-support-for-urgent-climate-action-20230816-p5dwx7.html">climate change</a>, 45% (down six since October 2021) thought it a serious and urgent problem that we should be taking action on now, even if that involves significant costs, 29% (up two) thought gradual action adequate, and 16% (up four) said we shouldn’t take action that has significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a real problem”.</p>
<p>By 59–19, respondents supported Labor’s 43% emissions reduction target by 2030, but support for specific climate change measures dropped since October 2021. For example, 29% (down eight) supported the Greens’ proposal to ban all coal mining and exports by 2030.</p>
<p>The poll article in The Age blames cost-of-living increases for undermining support for climate action.</p>
<h2>Newspoll to be administered by a new pollster</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/20/weekend-miscellany-newspoll-developments-climate-polling-labor-national-executive-ballot/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Sunday that Pyxis Polling will conduct Newspoll. Pyxis was formed after two senior staff at YouGov, which used to conduct Newspoll, resigned to start their own polling company.</p>
<p>I do not know when the first new Newspoll will appear, but it has now been five weeks since the last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-2pp-despite-primary-slide-lnp-wins-fadden-byelection-easily-209686">YouGov-conducted Newspoll</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211674/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an ‘it’s time’ factor for voters.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085782023-07-11T04:13:09Z2023-07-11T04:13:09ZVoice support slumps in Essential poll; LNP leads in Queensland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536726/original/file-20230711-17-yabr5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca de Marchi/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>An <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/10-july-2023">Essential poll</a>, conducted July 5-9 from a sample of 1,125, had “yes” to the Indigenous Voice to parliament leading by 47-43, with 10% undecided. There has been a methods change from previous Essential polls that had no undecided option. </p>
<p>The last Essential Voice poll in June gave “yes” a 60–40 lead, in contrast to a 51–49 “no” lead from Resolve in a poll conducted at the same time.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/resolve-first-national-poll-to-have-no-ahead-in-voice-referendum-but-essential-has-yes-far-ahead-207015">Resolve first national poll to have 'no' ahead in Voice referendum, but Essential has 'yes' far ahead</a>
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<p>The graph below shows the “yes” lead or deficit in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum">2023 Voice polls</a> from Newspoll, Resolve, Essential and Morgan pollsters. If the pollster used a forced choice, I have used the forced choice result. The poll result dates are the last dates of fieldwork. There are trendlines for all pollsters. I used the statistical software Minitab for this graph.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">2023 Voice polls.</span>
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<p>The trajectories of Resolve and Newspoll are similar, while Essential has been the most friendly pollster for “yes”. The last Morgan Voice poll was taken in May. While Essential still has “yes” ahead, there is now a clear down trend in “yes” support in this poll.</p>
<h2>Other Essential results: Labor leads by 51–44</h2>
<p>In Essential’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two party measure</a> that includes undecided, Labor led by 51–44 (52–42 last fortnight). This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Essential since March. Primary votes were 32% Labor (steady), 32% Coalition (up two), 14% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>By 71–22, voters thought the government could make a lot or a fair amount of difference to the cost of living. Capping prices for electricity and gas was the most pupular option for addressing the cost of living, with 73% saying it would make a difference and the government should do it.</p>
<p>On Australia’s stumping of Jonny Bairstow in the second Ashes Test, 48% thought the Australians were totally justified, 27% said they wouldn’t have done it but the English need to get over it, 9% “same old Aussies, always cheating” and 16% “what’s the Ashes?”.</p>
<h2>Be sceptical of claims of existential crises for current opposition parties</h2>
<p>A paper for the <a href="https://www.cis.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/RR-46-Generation-Left.pdf">Centre for Independent Studies</a> is claiming that the Coalition will struggle to win future elections owing to lack of movement to the right among younger generations as they age. But when the Coalition unexpectedly won the 2019 election, there were claims of an <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/10/02/labor-light-on-the-hill-speech-chalmers/">existential crisis for Labor</a>.</p>
<p>Internationally, there were claims of an existential crisis for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/15/the-guardian-view-on-labours-defeat-an-existential-crisis-with-no-easy-solution">United Kingdom Labour</a> after the Conservatives won a clear majority at the UK 2019 election, but <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">Labour is leading</a> in current UK national polls by about 20 points.</p>
<p>In June I wrote that in continental Europe, the right is <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-indictment-trump-retains-huge-lead-in-republican-primary-polls-and-narrowly-leads-biden-207721">advancing</a>, and in the United States Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Joe Biden. This is occurring despite the generational effects the CIS paper claims will damage the Coalition. </p>
<p>If there’s a problem for the Coalition in Australia, it’s probably due to the high percentage of our population that lives in big cities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-continuing-education-divide-eventually-favour-labor-electorally-due-to-our-big-cities-180970">Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?</a>
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<h2>Last fortnight’s Essential poll</h2>
<p>In last <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/27-june-2023">fortnight’s Essential poll</a>, voters were asked to rate Albanese, Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese had a 36–27 positive rating, down from 41–24 in May. Dutton’s ratings improved to 34–27 negative from 35–23. Bandt was at 38–21 negative.</p>
<p>Respondents were asked whether the government was doing enough, not enough or too much to address various issues. Relieving cost of living pressures had the highest score for not enough (75% not enough, 20% enough, 5% too much). Ensuring affordable and secure rentals rated 69% not enough, 25% enough, 6% too much. Environmental issues had about 40% saying the government was doing enough.</p>
<p>Federal parliament was rated fourth out of five options for ensuring work is a safe place for women, behind the public service, private companies and sporting clubs and ahead of only the entertainment industry.</p>
<h2>LNP leads in Queensland Freshwater poll</h2>
<p>The next Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted June 29 to July 2 from a sample of 1,065, gave the Liberal National Party a 52–48 lead over the incumbent Labor government. Primary votes were 40% LNP, 34% Labor, 11% Greens and 15% for all Others with no separate figure provided for One Nation.</p>
<p>LNP leader David Crisafulli led Labor incumbent Annastacia Palaszczuk as better premier by 45–44. It’s unusual for an opposition leader to hold a better PM/premier lead. Poll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/05/freshwater-strategy-52-48-to-lnp-in-queensland/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>An April YouGov Queensland poll gave the LNP a 51–49 lead, although Resolve still had Labor ahead, but Resolve has skewed to Labor federally and in state polls since the May 2022 federal election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls</a>
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<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Queensland_state_election">early 2015</a>, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state. It was the only state the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">Coalition won at the 2022 election</a>. By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/09/weekend-miscellany-by-elections-voice-polling-gerard-rennicks-preselection-defeat-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Sunday that “no” to the Voice led in this Queensland-only poll by 50–36 including undecided, or 58–42 excluding undecided.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208578/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling continues to show that support for a “yes” vote at the upcoming referendum is losing ground.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930912022-10-24T05:32:13Z2022-10-24T05:32:13ZLabor’s love lost: the tide is turning on private ownership of electricity grids<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491249/original/file-20221024-13-pzklh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C214%2C5742%2C3077&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The promise by the Andrews government to reintroduce public enterprise to Victoria’s electricity industry, through a revived State Electricity Commission, is something of a shock. </p>
<p>The process of electricity privatisation in Australia began with Labor in Victoria, when the government of Joan Kirner sold <a href="https://researchdata.edu.au/loy-yang-b-known-lybco/491512">51% of the Loy Yang B power station</a> in 1992. Her Liberal successor, Jeff Kennett, then sold the remainder of Loy Lang B, as well as the rest of the state’s publicly owned generation, transmission and distribution assets.</p>
<p>Labor has been office for all but four years since Kennett’s defeat in 1999. Until now it has made no attempt to reverse his policies. Rather, it has undertaken some rather dubious privatisations of its own, notably the Andrews government’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-27/victoria-privatises-its-land-titles-and-registry-office/10169056">2018 sale</a> of the Land Titles and Registry office. </p>
<p>Premier Daniel Andrews’ statement that “it was wrong, it was a mistake, to sell our energy companies” therefore marks a clear shift.</p>
<h2>Labor leaders change tack</h2>
<p>The change is part of a broader shift in Labor’s position throughout Australia. </p>
<p>Arguably this shift began in Queensland after the trouncing of Anna Bligh’s Labor government in 2012, winning just seven of 89 seats. The Bligh government had sold a range of public assets (though retaining distribution and transmission networks, and coal-fired power generators). The remnants of the Labor party concluded privatisation was electoral and economic poison. </p>
<p>Labor was returned to power in 2015 after the LNP government of Campbell Newman, having sought to push privatisation further, was ousted after one term. Under Annastacia Palaszczuk the Queensland government is now investing in new renewable generation through the publicly owned CleanCo – including <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/acciona-to-build-huge-1gw-wind-farm-in-queensland-after-landing-cleanco-deal-15236/">18 wind turbines</a> as part of the MacIntyre Wind Precinct, the <a href="https://cleancoqueensland.com.au/first-foundation-poured-at-the-macintyre-wind-precinct/">largest wind farm project</a> in the southern hemisphere. </p>
<p>NSW Labor went through similar contortions over privatisation, with a series of premiers and treasurers trying and failing to find a way of selling the electricity industry. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="alt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491239/original/file-20221024-15-rae5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">caption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The disastrous defeat of the Keneally Labor government in 2011 was driven by this failure, along with the string of scandals that seem to be the rule rather than the exception in NSW politics. </p>
<p>Now, with the prospect of Labor returning to power next March, Opposition leader Chris Minns has <a href="https://www.chrisminns.com.au/nsw_labor_to_protect_state_assets">given a guarantee</a> there will be no more privatisations.</p>
<p>At the national level, the biggest single commitment of the Albanese government is the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation initiative, to build the transmission network needed for clean energy. The first two projects to be financed – the Marinus Link between Tasmania and Victoria, and the Kerang link, between Victoria and NSW – are <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/rewiring-nation-supports-its-first-two-transmission-projects">publicly owned</a>.</p>
<h2>Taxpayers worse off</h2>
<p>What explains this shift? </p>
<p>First, public opinion is now <a href="https://theconversation.com/publics-view-of-the-politics-of-privatisation-comes-full-circle-22073">opposed to privatisation</a>.</p>
<p>There was significant public support for privatisation in the 1980s, but this went into decline after major privatisations began in the early 1990s. Contrary to the hopes of supporters, experience with privatisation only made voters more hostile. This has finally permeated through to political commentary. The failings of formerly public enterprises like Qantas are now <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/06/23/qantas-alan-joyce-another-failure-privatisation/">regularly traced back</a> to the process of privatisation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/publics-view-of-the-politics-of-privatisation-comes-full-circle-22073">Public's view of the politics of privatisation comes full circle</a>
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<p>More importantly, politicians now understand that the economics of selling income-generating assets don’t stack up.</p>
<p>The premise for privatisation was that it was better for taxpayers to sell state-owned assets and reduce public debt.</p>
<p>But, particularly when interest rates on public debt are below the rate of inflation, government-owned enterprises generate returns well above the cost of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00886.x">the capital invested</a> in them.</p>
<p>Those states that kept ownership of their electricity networks, such as Queensland and Tasmania, have received a steady flow of dividends, and the value of their assets have appreciated. The proceeds of privatisation in other states have long dissipated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">The end of coal-fired power is in sight, even with private interests holding out</a>
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<p>According to the ideology of privatisation, the low cost of borrowing for public enterprises is an illusion, because the public is on the hook for the cost of a bailout in the event of any business failure. But such bailouts have been very rare in Australia, and taking their costs into account does not change the calculation significantly.</p>
<p>The risk premium demanded by investors in private equity has always been large, and is now growing, making the gap between the private and public cost of capital even larger. There has been a corresponding drop in private investment globally, and (outside mining) in Australia. The case for public investment has never been stronger. Labor politicians seem finally to have realised this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a long-standing critic of privatisation in the electricity sector since the 1990s. He has made numerous submissions to public inquiries, and has undertaken research for the Electrical Trades Union. </span></em></p>Victorian Labor started the process of privatising electricity assets. Now Premier Daniel Andrews says it was a mistake.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1802492022-04-05T20:02:46Z2022-04-05T20:02:46ZThe polls look grim for the Coalition. Will Queensland buck the trend again?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456029/original/file-20220404-21-2m60ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Phat Nguyen</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Awaiting the official start of the 2022 campaign, published polls show Labor is comfortably ahead of the government. Pundits agree this year’s election is Albanese’s to lose, but predictions range along a spectrum from a Labor landslide to a narrow win, to a finely balanced hung parliament. </p>
<p>The more nuanced reality is that the 2022 poll will turn on a small number of key seats. These will be micro-targeted and parsed in a backroom battle of the campaign strategists and subjected to even more indecent pork-barrelling. </p>
<p>Nowhere will this be more so than in Queensland - the emblem of Bill Shorten’s failed tilt at the prime ministership. The 4.3% swing to the Coalition sparked a social media campaign demanding <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">the state’s expulsion from the federation</a>. </p>
<p>Despite being the birthplace of the labour movement in the 1890s and electing state Labor governments for 28 of the past 33 years, Queenslanders have stubbornly resisted supporting federal Labor. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland to all those #Quexiteers: don't judge, try to understand us</a>
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<p>Several of its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/preview-national">traditionally safe seats became marginal</a> in 2019, and previously marginal LNP seats (notably Capricornia) <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/FED2022-PostRedistributionPendulum.pdf">moved up the pendulum</a> to gain bigger margins (from 0.08% in 2016 to 12.4% in 2019). The ALP holds just six of 30 federal seats, and none north of Brisbane. Four of its seats in the populous south-east are on margins ranging from 0.6% (Lilley), 1.2 (Blair), 1.9% (Moreton) and 2.9% (Griffith). </p>
<p>This year’s electoral contest will be more distributed than 2019. The government, wracked by factional warfare and under pressure about Scott Morrison’s leadership, is challenged to defend seats in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, Western Australia – where the state Liberals retained only two seats in the Legislative Assembly – and South Australia – where the one-term Liberal Marshall government was defeated in March. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, performance in Queensland remains crucial to whichever party hopes to form the next federal government. The state’s importance is reflected in the Liberal Party’s decision to again base its campaign headquarters in Brisbane as well as the hectic schedule of visits that both leaders have made since border restrictions eased.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456032/original/file-20220404-17-2g3b7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456032/original/file-20220404-17-2g3b7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456032/original/file-20220404-17-2g3b7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456032/original/file-20220404-17-2g3b7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456032/original/file-20220404-17-2g3b7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456032/original/file-20220404-17-2g3b7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456032/original/file-20220404-17-2g3b7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Both Albanese and Morrison have been working the sunshine state hard.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jason O'Brien</span></span>
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<p>For much of this year, Queensland has bucked the national trend away from the Coalition. A Roy Morgan poll at the end of 2021 gave Labor a convincing lead over the government (54.5 to 45.5 two-party preferred on December 5). The gap narrowed during February, to 50-50 on February 23. By March 20, Roy Morgan found support for the Coalition had surged to 54.5 to Labor’s 45.5 two-party preferred - an outlier compared to Essential (41-52) in the same period), but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/bludgertrack2022/polldata.htm?">consistent with Newspoll at 54-46 on March 12</a>. </p>
<p>Roy Morgan showed this gap has narrowed to 51-49 in favour of the Coalition by March 29. This represents a swing of 7.4% to the ALP in Queensland from its low-water mark of May 2019, but significantly and <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8922-federal-voting-intention-mid-march-2022-202203211033">in contrast to the national polls</a>, Labor still trails the Coalition. </p>
<p>Once again Queensland is different. Why?</p>
<h2>Why Queensland is often the outlier state in polls</h2>
<p>One possible explanation is that Queensland’s economy is growing. Despite the hit to tourism and small business from border restrictions, retail spending grew strongly in the December quarter. Interstate migration attracted almost 31,000 new residents in the year to June 2021 – particularly the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, driving house prices increases of 36.3% and 35.4% respectively. Demand for the state’s commodity exports has surged, further increased by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Unemployment <a href="https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/economy/labour-employment/state">has fallen</a> to 4.3%. </p>
<p>Conscious they fared relatively well through COVID-19, with fewer and far shorter lockdowns than their southern counterparts, and many fewer deaths, Queenslanders may be content with the devil they know.</p>
<p>The electoral buffer built by the Coalition in 2019, along with a federal budget that delivered immediate, if temporary, relief and included a slew of large infrastructure promises for the region, may help the government retain key seats in central and far northern Queensland. But locals will weigh those promises against clean energy, manufacturing, aged and childcare commitments offered by Labor.</p>
<p>A second factor may be that Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk proves far less of an electoral asset for Anthony Albanese than she was six months ago. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/14/whats-driving-reports-of-an-integrity-crisis-in-queensland">A simmering “integrity crisis”</a>has tarnished the three-time election winner. </p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s government is seen to be drifting despite <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-becomes-fifth-australian-state-to-legalise-voluntary-euthanasia-20210914-p58rfr.html">social policy reforms</a>, securing <a href="https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/brisbane-2032">the 2032 Olympics</a> and its generally competent management of the “rain bomb” that triggered floods that devastated large parts of the south-east, including the Brisbane CBD, in late February. </p>
<p>That said, Queenslanders resented the prime minister’s frequent attacks on their premier over border closures. Morrison and Palaszczuk are not on good terms. They clashed recently over greater disaster assistance offered to support flood-ravaged northern NSW. Labor’s Senate team, which has been actively campaigning in Queensland’s regions for the past three years, can be expected to revive claims that Morrison is the “prime minister for NSW”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456052/original/file-20220404-13-yxqirf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456052/original/file-20220404-13-yxqirf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456052/original/file-20220404-13-yxqirf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456052/original/file-20220404-13-yxqirf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456052/original/file-20220404-13-yxqirf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456052/original/file-20220404-13-yxqirf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456052/original/file-20220404-13-yxqirf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many Queenslanders caught up in the recent catastrophic floods felt abandoned by the federal government.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The minor parties may play a major role</h2>
<p>The impending campaign in Queensland promises more than a few surprises. There is potential for seats to change hands, and uncertainty surrounds the impact that Clive Palmer’s advertising and One Nation will have on preference flows. </p>
<p>Labor needs to retain its six seats and is targeting the Coalition seats of Longman (3.3%), Flynn (8.7%), where incumbent Nationals MP Ken O’Dowd is retiring, and Leichhardt, held by Warren Entsch on 4.2%. It claims its prospects are improving in the inner-city seat of Brisbane (4.9%).</p>
<p>Both parties are being challenged by the Greens, who are targeting two seats - Griffith, held by Labor’s Terri Butler and Ryan, a traditional Liberal stronghold. Ryan overlaps the state seat of Maiwar, which has been held by the Greens since 2017, suggesting its values have become more socially progressive and environmentally conscious. It is one to watch on election night.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.jwsresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/JWS-Research-True-Issues-27-March-2022.pdf">JWS Research True Issues report</a> found that cost of living pressures and hospitals, health and ageing are the salient issues for Australian voters heading into the 2022 election. The economy and finances, the environment and climate change, and employment and wages round out the top five. </p>
<p>This was reflected in the budget and the opposition’s budget reply. Albanese has spent a lot of time in Queensland. He claims Labor has learned the lessons of 2019. But the polls suggest that here at least, he is starting from behind. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-and-greens-gain-in-post-budget-newspoll-as-an-ipsos-poll-gives-labor-a-large-lead-180316">Coalition and Greens gain in post-budget Newspoll as an Ipsos poll gives Labor a large lead</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These recent polls preceded the second flood event in a month, which claimed lives in the Darling Downs, as well as devastating Lismore and Byron Shire. They captured the bitter factional recriminations that rocked Labor after Senator Kimberley Kitching’s untimely death, but not Concetta Fierrevante-Wells’ budget night assault on Morrison’s character, or the controversy around his 2007 preselection in Cook.</p>
<p>It’s unclear how much of this will reach or influence the Queenslanders whose votes will determine the election outcome. In 2022, Queensland won’t be centre stage, but no one will ignore how the campaign unfolds in a state that has been the Coalition’s happy hunting ground more often than not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has previously received research funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government (ANZSOG), of which she is a Fellow. She is a member of the Research Committee of the Centre for Policy Development (CPD).</span></em></p>While it has often elected state Labor governments, Queensland has more often than not leaned to the Coalition on a federal level. And this year it may have a significant effect on the outcome.Anne Tiernan, Adjunct Professor of Politics. Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1762562022-03-03T19:10:40Z2022-03-03T19:10:40ZFriday essay: ‘fair game’, racial shame and the women who demanded more<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449681/original/file-20220303-19-34usfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brittany Higgins and Grace Tame at the National Press Club last month.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sexual politics is difficult terrain for young people to navigate. Desire, threat and insecurity are a powerful combination in the most benign circumstances, even before teenagers were drenched in social media harassment and ubiquitous porn. </p>
<p>Outside the privileged cloister where we tested the limits, my generation of assertive young women were surprised to realise we represented a visceral threat to
those men who chose to remain unmoved by the new politics that took the personal seriously.</p>
<p>The chilling reality of this confronted me not long after I arrived in Cairns in 1975, on the first leg of my journey to interview the bush poets scribbling away in Far North Queensland. </p>
<p>As I stood waiting for my brand new suitcase to appear on the baggage trolley towed from the plane, I fell into easy banter with a cowboy from central casting. He didn’t offer to carry my luggage but followed me to the hire car desk. His insistent attention put me on alert. I brushed him off, then made my way to the car park and onto the highway to town. Phew.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449094/original/file-20220301-23-4yfwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449094/original/file-20220301-23-4yfwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449094/original/file-20220301-23-4yfwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449094/original/file-20220301-23-4yfwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449094/original/file-20220301-23-4yfwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449094/original/file-20220301-23-4yfwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449094/original/file-20220301-23-4yfwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There were six unsolved murders on the Bruce Highway ‘horror stretch’ in six years. Image: Bruce Highway, Brisbane – Gympie, Queensland State Archives.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The threat had felt real. I had absorbed the reports of the Bruce Highway horror stretch a little further south. Six unsolved murders in six years, and another two just months earlier. I locked all the doors of the little Mazda, wound the windows up tight, and kept an eye on the rear-vision mirror until I pulled into the motel, checked into my room and drew the curtains. </p>
<p>Then the cowboy’s harassment really started. First a phone call, then a knock on the door, angry pacing outside the room, another call and banging on the window. I rang reception to complain and was told to get over it. No one was sent up the stairs to tell him to get lost or that they would call the police.</p>
<p>The message was clear: women were fair game. It seemed like hours before he gave up. I was exhausted. In the morning, I gobbled the cardboard cereal and white toast pushed through the breakfast hatch, drank the pot of Robur tea, paid the bill and dashed to the car park. Then I locked myself in the car. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449123/original/file-20220301-3997-jgal2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449123/original/file-20220301-3997-jgal2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449123/original/file-20220301-3997-jgal2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449123/original/file-20220301-3997-jgal2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449123/original/file-20220301-3997-jgal2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449123/original/file-20220301-3997-jgal2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449123/original/file-20220301-3997-jgal2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I was a bundle of nervous energy. It scarcely dissipated on the hour-long journey through the stifling heat of the pre–wet season, down the palm-fringed tropical coast to Innisfail. I was too afraid to stop, though I desperately wanted to have a swim, even in crocodile- and stinger-infested waters. I worried that if I did, the angry cowboy – or some of his mates – might reappear. I had read enough newspaper reports to know that young women disappeared on remote country roads.</p>
<p>There was nothing exceptional about my experience. Everyone I knew had a similar story, or worse. The legacy of <a href="https://theconversation.com/of-course-australia-was-invaded-massacres-happened-here-less-than-90-years-ago-55377">a violent frontier</a> could not be wished away and did not just evaporate. It echoed through the generations, finding new targets. Modern Queensland was still pumped up with the testosterone-fuelled aggression that had marked its founding.</p>
<p>After I returned from my road trip, a friend told me she had seen brutal violence against women in some towns in Far North Queensland – assaults that were organised and condoned, the perpetrators beyond the reach of the law. </p>
<p>It was, we would now say, structural. Not just a few bad eggs, but a system that treated young women as chattels. In her town, not far from my uncomfortable experience, gangs of men and boys routinely identified a female target at a public event and enticed her outside. They called the gang rape a “train” and convinced themselves, and the police, that the woman was “asking for it”. The traumatised victims were <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/1259316">rarely believed</a>, the legal system seemingly designed to humiliate, shame and silence them.</p>
<p>When we helped journalists from the National Times with the research they needed to travel to the town and report what was going on, an ancient mechanism of control in new garb was fully revealed. </p>
<p>Within no time at all, similar stories bubbled up out of other country towns. After the horror of these organised attacks was reported, the campaign to ensure that the victims of <a href="https://theconversation.com/rape-sexual-assault-and-sexual-harassment-whats-the-difference-93411">sexual assault</a> were treated with respect in Queensland gained new momentum. One of the only two women in the state parliament made it an issue.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449450/original/file-20220302-23-1oebjnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Julianne Schultz in the 1970s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rosemary Kyburz was a Liberal MP who would do all she could to ensure these assaults did not go unpunished. Within a couple of years, the law changed a little. </p>
<p>Inquiries, reports, submissions and debates followed, and changes continued to be made for decades as the legacy of <a href="https://theconversation.com/cultural-misogyny-and-why-mens-aggression-to-women-is-so-often-expressed-through-sex-157680">embedded misogyny</a> revealed itself over and over. Sexual abuse could no longer be dismissed with the mocking laugh that had once accompanied it. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, nearly 50 years on, the law still works against female victims. The suppressed anger that many women carry burst to the surface of public life when another generation of young women, led by Grace Tame, Brittany Higgins and <a href="https://theconversation.com/shes-a-slut-sexual-bullying-among-girls-contributes-to-cultural-misogyny-we-need-to-take-it-seriously-157421">Chanel Contos</a>, declared Enough is enough. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-change-making-history-making-noise-brittany-higgins-and-grace-tame-at-the-national-press-club-176252">Making change, making history, making noise: Brittany Higgins and Grace Tame at the National Press Club</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A few weeks after International Women’s Day 2021, in cities and towns around Australia, women and men, many who hadn’t marched for decades, <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-sex-power-and-anger-a-history-of-feminist-protests-in-australia-157402">took to the streets</a> in response to the revelations of sexual abuse in Parliament House. The echo of past protests reverberated around the nation. It had not taken long for the 800,000 women who had been added to the electoral roll in 1903 to become a wellspring of conservative votes for decades, but the polls suggested they would be no longer. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449102/original/file-20220301-15-1sr1eax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449102/original/file-20220301-15-1sr1eax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449102/original/file-20220301-15-1sr1eax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449102/original/file-20220301-15-1sr1eax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449102/original/file-20220301-15-1sr1eax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449102/original/file-20220301-15-1sr1eax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449102/original/file-20220301-15-1sr1eax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">International Women’s Day protests 2021, Melbourne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/matthrkac/">Matthrkac/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A right, not a gift</h2>
<p>The animating idea of the women’s movement – that equality was a right, not a gift or a political deal – transformed interpersonal relations, and crept into workplaces and schools. Language changed, expectations were recalibrated, and before long, behaviour followed. But it did not happen overnight and did not happen without a struggle. The ban on married women working in the public service <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/the-long-slow-demise-of-the-marriage-bar/">had been lifted</a>
only two years before I started high school.</p>
<p>At that time, women were still the exception in the professions, paid one-third less than men and denied access to superannuation. In 1973, a few million dollars was made available by the federal government for the first time to support childcare and some support for women’s refuges followed. It was tiny by today’s standards but it transformed lives.</p>
<p>Four years later, the editor of the Courier-Mail drew my first serious job interview to a halt: “What it is with you girls, why do you all want to be journalists, what’s wrong with teaching and nursing?” I didn’t bother to turn up for the second interview after the editor of the Gold Coast Bulletin, which still featured women in bikinis on the front page, said, “If you’re a pretty girl, come on down; if not, don’t bother.” </p>
<p>Soon the patter became more sophisticated. As Max Walsh, the editor at the Australian Financial Review, had told me at my job interview – in a pub – women would work twice as hard for half the money as men, and he thought they’d be more able to extract secrets from businessmen than male journalists. </p>
<p>A few years later, in the early 1980s, when I was armed with a clipping-book full of front-page stories and some experience in television, the head of current affairs at ABC TV baited me for an hour before dismissing me, asking, “What makes you think you are pretty enough to be on television?” Belittling and shaming were
still ready tools of choice to put women in their place.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C18%2C4188%2C2802&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman sits on bench, wrapped in coat and scarf, and stares at statue" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C18%2C4188%2C2802&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449134/original/file-20220301-25-1fjq1su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author in Geneva, 1980.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The year before my experience at the ABC’s Gore Hill headquarters, the High Court had ruled that Ansett Airlines could not discriminate against a woman who was otherwise qualified to be a pilot. I had reported on <a href="https://timeline.awava.org.au/archives/397">Deborah Wardley’s case</a> for years as her prospective employer invented one excuse after another to block her – women weren’t strong enough; unions would object; menstrual cycles, pregnancy and childbirth would jeopardise safety and increase costs. The court ruled on technicalities, not on principle. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449105/original/file-20220301-15-11exowt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449105/original/file-20220301-15-11exowt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449105/original/file-20220301-15-11exowt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449105/original/file-20220301-15-11exowt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449105/original/file-20220301-15-11exowt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449105/original/file-20220301-15-11exowt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449105/original/file-20220301-15-11exowt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1980 advertisement for Ansett airlines. In March 1980, Reginald Ansett lost his High Court appeal against pilot Deborah Wardley’s discrimination case, using the then-new Victorian Equal Opportunity Act 1977.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When a group of older mentors urged me to make a complaint about my treatment at the ABC, the cost seemed higher than any possible reward. I kept my notes and moved on; revenge, as they say, is a dish best served cold.</p>
<p>It took until 1983 for Australia to sign <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/cedaw.aspx">the 1979 United Nations convention</a> designed to eliminate all forms of discrimination against women. Legislation followed in 1984, but its principal proponent, the Labor senator Susan Ryan, was subjected to bitter personal and public attacks. </p>
<p>At the big rallies in Canberra, anxious and angry Women Who Want to be Women pushed to the front to protest the changes. Some 80,000 people signed petitions opposing the relatively modest sex discrimination bill. Although key Liberal leaders supported it, the right wing of the party was bitterly opposed. It <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/sex-discrimination-uncertain-times">marked the beginning of a split</a> that would dog the party for decades.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449138/original/file-20220301-25-3pas2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449138/original/file-20220301-25-3pas2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449138/original/file-20220301-25-3pas2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449138/original/file-20220301-25-3pas2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449138/original/file-20220301-25-3pas2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449138/original/file-20220301-25-3pas2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449138/original/file-20220301-25-3pas2i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Senator Susan Ryan, Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Status of Women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christine Fernon/National Museum of Australia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-sex-power-and-anger-a-history-of-feminist-protests-in-australia-157402">Friday essay: Sex, power and anger — a history of feminist protests in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Susan Ryan was a feisty campaigner, so the vicious onslaughts only increased her resolve. Women’s rights were on the way to becoming human rights, talent was no longer sifted by sex, but the extent of the opposition stunned her. </p>
<p>The Australian legislation passed with the support of some Liberal members of parliament who defied their party and crossed the floor to vote with the government. </p>
<p>Women did not have a secure footing in the dominant political party, as deputy Liberal leader and foreign minister Julie Bishop and Liberal MP Julia Banks found in the internal party confrontation that ousted Malcolm Turnbull and replaced him with Scott Morrison. As <a href="https://www.hardiegrant.com/au/publishing/bookfinder/book/power-play-by-julia-banks/9781743797204">Julia Banks declared</a> in the House of Representatives, as she prepared to leave in 2018, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Often when good women call out or are subjected to bad behaviours, the reprisals, backlash and commentary portrays them as the bad ones: the liar, the troublemaker, the emotionally unstable or weak, or someone who should be silenced.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>“Tell us the story again about the newspaper job interview in the pub,” my teenaged daughter and her friends would say, at the turn of the century, each time we drove down Broadway past the old Fairfax building towards Sydney University. “Can you believe it?” the girls would chuckle. </p>
<p>Then they too entered the workforce and realised that the more subtle but deadening hand of sexual discrimination was still doing its evil work, now hidden behind laws and lofty rhetoric. Change rarely proceeds in a linear manner, but the trend was clear.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-madness-of-julia-banks-why-narratives-about-hysterical-women-are-so-toxic-163963">The 'madness' of Julia Banks — why narratives about 'hysterical' women are so toxic</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Assertive women, brutal political attacks</h2>
<p>When Wayne Goss appointed Canadian-born Leneen Forde as Queensland’s governor in 1992, she was only the second woman governor in Australian history. She had fallen in love with the son of former Australian prime minister Frank Forde and, like countless young brides, moved to Australia full of hope and expectation. She was shocked by what she discovered. Brisbane in the mid-1950s was a poor country town. The appliances she had taken for granted were considered luxury mod cons. A woman’s place was in the home. But when her husband died 11 years later, this was no longer an option for her. </p>
<p>With five young children to support, she began studying law and five years after her husband’s death started work as a solicitor, eventually becoming the queen’s representative in a state named for another. </p>
<p>Queensland, despite the gender of its name, was a place where men prevailed and women were meant to know their place. Matt Foley challenged this when, as the state’s attorney-general, he decided that merit, not gender, would determine judicial appointments. </p>
<p>My former English teacher, Roslyn Atkinson, by then a distinguished barrister who had been the inaugural president of the Queensland Anti-Discrimination Tribunal and deputy chair of the state’s Law Reform Commission, despite outraged protests from the old guard, became one of Foley’s first Supreme Court appointments in 1998.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449155/original/file-20220301-15-1dtrnys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449155/original/file-20220301-15-1dtrnys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449155/original/file-20220301-15-1dtrnys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449155/original/file-20220301-15-1dtrnys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449155/original/file-20220301-15-1dtrnys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449155/original/file-20220301-15-1dtrnys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449155/original/file-20220301-15-1dtrnys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Roslyn Atkinson, inaugural president of the Queensland Anti-Discrimination Tribunal and deputy chair of the state’s Law Reform Commission.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Within a few years, despite bitter heckling from those who were still convinced that “merit” meant “men”, seven of the state’s 24 Supreme Court judges were women, and a woman was president of the Queensland Court of Appeal. Years later it was still driving the press mad. The Courier-Mail would roll out articles anonymously reporting lawyers who knew women were just not up to it. These eminently well-qualified women were derided as “Matt’s Girls”.</p>
<p>In September 2015, Justice Catherine Holmes became the state’s first female chief justice. This was a change that would not easily slide back. The reaction to these newly assertive women was no less brutal in politics. </p>
<p>When Labor’s Anna Bligh became the first popularly elected female premier in Australia in 2009, the misogyny that later blighted Julia Gillard’s prime ministership had an off-Broadway tryout in Brisbane. Bligh’s resolute leadership during the 2011 floods, like Gillard’s ability to navigate a hung parliament, counted for little. Her determination to privatise ports, roads, trains and coal terminals was not welcomed by traditional Labor voters. Union-sponsored billboards on major thoroughfares mocked her, the press despised her, and a vicious whispering campaign prevailed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449118/original/file-20220301-19-13tktsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449118/original/file-20220301-19-13tktsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449118/original/file-20220301-19-13tktsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449118/original/file-20220301-19-13tktsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449118/original/file-20220301-19-13tktsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449118/original/file-20220301-19-13tktsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449118/original/file-20220301-19-13tktsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anna Bligh became the first popularly elected female premier in Australia in 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/djackmanson/">David Jackmanson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 2012 election was a disaster for Labor: the party went from holding 51 seats to seven. Electoral tides in Queensland are often more dramatic than normal swings on the carefully calibrated Australian electoral pendulum. It was a relatively short-lived win for the blokes who had felt they were born to run the state. It lasted just one term. </p>
<h2>A female perspective</h2>
<p>In 2020, the victorious Annastacia Palaszczuk became the first woman to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">re-elected premier for a third time</a>. Under her administration, women occupied an unprecedented number of positions of power in what was once the most macho state. It was a long way from the 1970s. </p>
<p>In 2021, most of the ministers in her cabinet were women, as were the governor, chief justice, police commissioner, chief medical officer, head of the Department of Premier and Cabinet, and six of the state’s seven university vice-chancellors.</p>
<p>Second-wave feminists had sometimes wondered, in the abstract, what would happen as occupations were dominated by women. Would that mean the profession had lost status? Was equality realised when mediocre women exercised as much achieved power as mediocre men had always done? </p>
<p>But as Palaszczuk’s legislation to introduce a Queensland bill of rights, legalise abortion, outlaw coercive control, enable voluntary euthanasia and better define consent laws showed in a few short years, a female perspective could change the agenda. </p>
<p>And it could drive some men mad. This was a profound cultural and political change that had nothing to do with detachment from the “mother country”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-our-utopia-careful-what-you-wish-for-165314">Friday essay: Our utopia ... careful what you wish for</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fault lines</h2>
<p>Race and gender discrimination are inextricably linked and have long been defining Australian fault lines. Female convicts – “whores”, in the view of some commanders and male prisoners – were outnumbered at least three to one and were shared among the men in what <a href="http://juliemccrossin.com/afr1.pdf">Anne Summers has described</a> as “imposed sexual slavery”. But <a href="https://bookshop.nla.gov.au/book/defiant-voices-how-australias-female-convicts-challenged-authority-1788-1853.do">many were</a> fiercely independent battlers who wanted a better life for themselves and their children and were prepared to challenge authority.</p>
<p>Similarly, the Cammeraygal woman <a href="https://www.barangaroo.com/about/the-place/history/barangaroo-the-woman">Barangaroo</a>, who became Bennelong’s wife after her first husband died from smallpox, set the bar high. She was an independent woman, a fierce hunter and provider who saw little reason to compromise with the new arrivals. She once famously attended an official dinner at Government House in traditional garb, her naked body painted in white clay, a bone through her nose. </p>
<p>She died in 1790, so was spared the distress of witnessing the brutal and demeaning treatment of her sisters and generations of others as the fight over the bodies of Aboriginal women became a recurring metaphor of settlement. Some formed loving relationships with settlers, others became leaders, but many were treated as chattels, emotionally destroyed as their children were taken away, their men emasculated.</p>
<p>Australia was and is a deeply male society. For those with enough determination and a strong sense of self-worth, frontier life encouraged a certain female fearlessness that is still evident. </p>
<p>It is clear in the stars that shine abroad: writers and thinkers like Germaine Greer, Geraldine Brooks, Anne Summers and Kate Manne; scientists like the Nobel-winning Elizabeth Blackburn; actors like Cate Blanchett, Nicole Kidman, Rachel Griffiths and Margot Robbie, who luminously fill the world’s screens; educators including Jill Ker Conway and Patricia Davidson; and anthropologists Genevieve Bell and Marcia Langton.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman smiling, holding newspapers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449147/original/file-20220301-23-103l367.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449147/original/file-20220301-23-103l367.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449147/original/file-20220301-23-103l367.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449147/original/file-20220301-23-103l367.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449147/original/file-20220301-23-103l367.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449147/original/file-20220301-23-103l367.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449147/original/file-20220301-23-103l367.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Germaine Greer holding newspapers, 1988.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Hennessy/NLA nla.gov.au/nla.obj-149859225</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ever since pastoralists recruited single men, not wanting to be encumbered by the additional expense of providing for families, the political economy of Australia has been built on the primacy of male labour, male power and male control. The native-born and immigrant populations grew in the 19th century, but it took the
deaths of more than 60,000 men in the first world war for women to become the majority, although the generational loss reverberated for decades. </p>
<p>Women remained, in Anne Summers’ famous phrase, either “damned whores or God’s police”. Sexualised taunting was and still is the bedrock of abuse likely to rain down on Australian women who speak their mind, provide professional advice, demand more and expect R.E.S.P.E.C.T., as Aretha Franklin sang. Still, nothing fires up the angry Twitterati quite like women making otherwise unremarkable comments about their rights and expectations.</p>
<h2>‘One of the most racist towns in the country’</h2>
<p>The intersection of these discriminations was on proud, unapologetic display when, in 1977, I flew three hours west of Brisbane to Cunnamulla. </p>
<p>Peter Manning, then the editor of Nation Review, had commissioned me to report on a community that had been characterised as one of the most racist towns in the country for the independent newspaper. As I had learned from my weeks on the road talking to bush poets, travelling alone on this assignment would have been foolhardy, so I accompanied two of my friends. Wayne Goss and Matt Foley were working for the Aboriginal Legal Service at the time, and they had a slate full of meetings and court hearings.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Shops on a street, in a isolated town" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449150/original/file-20220301-4438-1k4idnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449150/original/file-20220301-4438-1k4idnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449150/original/file-20220301-4438-1k4idnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449150/original/file-20220301-4438-1k4idnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449150/original/file-20220301-4438-1k4idnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449150/original/file-20220301-4438-1k4idnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449150/original/file-20220301-4438-1k4idnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jane Street, Cunnamulla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland State Archives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the time, Cunnamulla was home to 1500 people (about, according to the signpost), seven pubs and seven draperies, and unemployment was officially running at 25%. Eight of every ten Aboriginal people were without work. It was a town where grog ruled, dozens of children were malnourished, and the grief from scores of infant deaths each year was overwhelming. </p>
<p>As the plane touched down, the local man sitting next to me asked where I was staying. The Club, I said. He spoke in the leering, patronising way I had come to expect in my travels through the state, setting the tone for the following week. As we left the plane he reassured me that I would be safe: “They don’t let the darkies into the Club Hotel.”</p>
<p>Cunnamulla is one of a handful of outback Australian towns that has a grim, larger-than-life reputation. Wilcannia, in the far west of New South Wales, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-in-wilcannia-a-national-disgrace-we-all-saw-coming-167348">briefly won national attention during the pandemic</a>, is another. Both towns had had their reputations unfairly tarnished, as the requests of their leaders were persistently ignored and dismissed. It has long been easy to ignore those who live beyond the Great Dividing Range.</p>
<p>Not long after William Landsborough described the potential of the land he observed around what became Cunnamulla – as he crossed the continent from north to south in search of the ill-fated explorers Burke and Wills – the south-west of Queensland was rapidly divided into vast stations. </p>
<p>Squatters soon claimed the mulga-clad countryside and murderous incursions became the norm. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-unearthing-queenslands-native-police-camps-gives-us-a-window-onto-colonial-violence-100814">Native Police</a> were stationed in the Cunnamulla township. Reports of the killings in the 1860s were so shocking that they provoked the Anglican bishop of Sydney to establish a mission. He had been outraged by a squatter’s jape that if he had “known how useful they might be he wouldn’t have killed so many blackfellows”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-unearthing-queenslands-native-police-camps-gives-us-a-window-onto-colonial-violence-100814">How unearthing Queensland's 'native police' camps gives us a window onto colonial violence</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="row of uniformed men in horses" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449151/original/file-20220301-23-14kra2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449151/original/file-20220301-23-14kra2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449151/original/file-20220301-23-14kra2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449151/original/file-20220301-23-14kra2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449151/original/file-20220301-23-14kra2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449151/original/file-20220301-23-14kra2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449151/original/file-20220301-23-14kra2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police riot squad and mounted Native Police, circa 1890s, Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland State Archives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The unprepossessing settlement on the banks of the Warrego River about 800 kilometres due west of Brisbane is an unlikely entry in the compendium of noteworthy places. Its murderous history was conveniently forgotten and replaced with a pastoral fantasy. Maybe the mouth-pleasing ring of the name helped. Henry Lawson thought it suggested pumpkin pies. He immortalised the Cobb & Co. coach
stop in his story <a href="https://www.austlit.edu.au/austlit/page/C239056">The Hypnotised Township</a>, but described the town as a place of “troubled slumbers”. </p>
<p>Years later the Aboriginal poet <a href="https://www.uqp.com.au/authors/herb-wharton">Herb Wharton</a>, who was born near Cunnamulla, won international acclaim when he broke the hypnotic silence. He turned the settler stories on their heads and told the droving tales of Murri stockmen and women. He and his sister Hazel McKellar then recorded the tales of massacres, including the one their grandmother had survived. </p>
<p>Still, the “Cunnamulla Fella”, who lived on damper and wallaby stew and was conjured by country singer Slim Dusty, is the figure who endures as a statue in the town. A selfie with the “Fella” is a tick on the roaming grey-nomad bucket list.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449103/original/file-20220301-23-r6dz3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449103/original/file-20220301-23-r6dz3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449103/original/file-20220301-23-r6dz3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449103/original/file-20220301-23-r6dz3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449103/original/file-20220301-23-r6dz3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449103/original/file-20220301-23-r6dz3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449103/original/file-20220301-23-r6dz3u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poster created by the supporters of Aboriginal human rights justice during the period prior to the parliamentary reform of the Australian Constitution in 1967.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Felix Farley</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An ugly reality</h2>
<p>Dark histories haunt places and often recur in other uncanny manifestations. Some may consider the Cunnamulla Fella a charming artefact of a bygone age, but there was nothing charming about <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/out-of-sight-out-of-mind---1969/2833724">Out of Sight, Out of Mind</a>, the depiction of the town by ABC’s Four Corners program in 1969. </p>
<p>This film, broadcast just two years after the referendum that brought First Nations people into the mainstream, was one of those moments when current affairs television excelled. It brought the shameful reality of life in fringe camps into middle-class loungerooms. </p>
<p>The pale, well-spoken journalist was doing a good job, but looked like a creature from another planet, dropped in to share his outrage. It was an excoriating portrayal of the wrongful conviction of an Aboriginal woman, and of the shocking conditions in the two town camps that were home to descendants of the Kunja people who had once been shot and poisoned by graziers.</p>
<p>Audiences around the country reacted with fury. “I’m praying for [mayor] Jack Tonkin’s soul in purgatory,” one wrote, “but I don’t like my chances.” ABC management prohibited the sale of the program to the BBC; the picture it painted was too ugly for international consumption.</p>
<p>The broadcast prompted an immediate political response: money suddenly became available to build 26 fibro houses scattered through the town. When I visited eight years later, the houses were built and only the remnants of the camps remained. The community links that had given life in the settlement its own coherence had dissipated; drunkenness had become the destructive norm. </p>
<p>The angry racism that once fuelled the frontier wars still had full-throated voice. Like so many outback towns, Cunnamulla seemed to be dying. “You have to blame it on something, what better than the boongs,” one angry newcomer told me.</p>
<p>Those I met on that short trip felt no need to hide their fury. The media had destroyed their town. “We were doing the right thing by the blacks until Four Corners came along,” one self-appointed spokesman berated me when I attended a dinner organised by the Rotary Club. </p>
<h2>‘I just want a fair go for the white fella’</h2>
<p>The anger in the room bubbled up as they listened to social worker Matt Foley’s talk. When it came time for questions, the local solicitor chairing the meeting passed around handwritten notes: “tone it down”, “no aggressive questions”, “calm down”. The back and forth continued until well after midnight. Then, like a storm that had passed, the tone changed. “We’re still friends, aren’t we?” the man who had most aggressively blamed the media at the start of the evening asked as he wandered off to his car. He should not have been driving.</p>
<p>In the morning a taxi driver who had been part of the angry group the night before nearly ran me over and then demanded I get into his car for a tour of the camps and the new houses. He knew who to blame. As we drove along the uncurbed streets he pointed to one rundown house after another:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Black house, white house, black house … I hope you are going to give those bastards heaps … I just want a fair go
for the white fella. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the previous six months there had been nearly 300 convictions for drunkenness: 163 Aboriginal men and 58 women; 55 white men and two women. “You can’t live here without drinking,” my not-so-friendly taxi driver declared.</p>
<p>Four of the women I met stood out and have remained with me ever since. One was the doctor’s elderly receptionist. When I knocked, she answered the door to the surgery armed with a paper knife. “You learn to expect anything, and prepare yourself,” she said as she put the blade in a drawer. </p>
<p>Another was a tough, damaged woman who owned one of the three pubs that served Aboriginal people. She had installed a metal cage along the bar. “I don’t know why the blacks drink here. I like them, but I’ve lost control. I don’t care how much I lose, I’m selling this place,” she told me. </p>
<p>Outside her pub a young woman, who looked at least 20 years older than she was, grabbed my arm and repeated, over and over,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m just a black mongrel bastard. I got no one, I got nowhere to go, I’m just a black mongrel bastard.</p>
</blockquote>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/non-indigenous-australians-shouldnt-fear-a-first-nations-voice-to-parliament-176675">Non-Indigenous Australians shouldn't fear a First Nations Voice to Parliament</a>
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<h2>Hazel McKellar’s reforming energy</h2>
<p>The most outstanding person in the town was <a href="https://www.magabala.com/collections/hazel-mckellar">Hazel McKellar</a>. She was the antithesis of what <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4305785-the-spectre-of-truganini-1980-boyer-lectures">Bernard Smith would later describe</a> as the “tragic muse” of Australian arts, the “old Aboriginal woman surviving precariously as a fringe dweller in some unknown country town”. She was a handsome, intelligent woman who, since returning to Cunnamulla after working as a housemaid on stations, had devoted herself to holding her community together as external and internal forces conspired to pull it apart.</p>
<p>Even in progressive circles, the prevailing image of Aboriginal people in the late 1970s was as victims – people with little agency or authority, people who had been damaged or destroyed. </p>
<p>Hazel McKellar did not fit this stereotype. She had big ideas and was prepared to pull whatever levers she could to realise them. She wanted a different school curriculum so children could learn about their culture, something the local school’s principal thought “might be helpful for slow learners”. </p>
<p>Two-thirds of the 440 students at the primary school were Aboriginal, but the experience of their forebears was not evident in the curriculum. In Year 5 social studies, as the principal helpfully explained, “We teach the kiddies about explorers and the opening up of Australia.”</p>
<p>Hazel McKellar’s advocacy for including cultural knowledge was ahead of the zeitgeist. Within a few years she was writing books that captured this knowledge. Her brother Herb Wharton had put the old brigade on notice through his poetry, which they celebrated; they may not have liked what he said, but they understood his language. </p>
<p>During those intense few days in 1977, Hazel and I talked about the immediate past, but not the longer past that had shaped it. Her focus was on the future. She campaigned relentlessly for improvements to health, housing and education, and for a cultural and community centre. </p>
<p>“It’s the little things that niggle, like knowing there is only one white family in town whose kids will come to an Aboriginal kid’s party,” she told me. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’ve just learnt to not go where I am not wanted. It used to make me angry, and I still resent it at times, but you have to accept it, I guess. But it’s only us who are keeping this place going.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>‘Settled in the Dreamtime’</h2>
<p>By 2019, the map of south-west Queensland was closer to what it would have looked like about 170 years earlier, when Thomas Mitchell had swept through the region identifying land suitable for cattle. The aerial view of the region from the National Native Title Tribunal’s map now shows a vast patchwork of native title lands, and many places of significant cultural heritage. To the west and south of Cunnamulla, 200,000 square kilometres of land has been returned to traditional
owners.</p>
<p>When Hazel McKellar told me in 1977 that it was only her people who would keep the area going, neither of us could have anticipated this transformation. By 2021, the sign at the entrance declared Cunnamulla a “Heritage Town”, “Settled in the Dreamtime”. </p>
<p>The ancient stories of the land and its people, once a cause of such embarrassment and shame, had become a source of pride and inspiration. Anonymous trolls may rage on Twitter, but no one would say out loud the things that they had once said to me, notebook in hand, spellchecking names as I jotted down their comments.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/read-listen-understand-why-non-indigenous-australians-should-read-first-nations-writing-78925">Alexis Wright</a> is a Waanyi woman who grew up in Cloncurry, more than 1000 kilometres north-west of Cunnamulla, at the other end of the Channel Country that regulates the cycles of life in the vast inland. It is the town where Scott Morrison tramped through the cemetery looking for his great-great-aunt Dame Mary Gilmore’s graveyard. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449077/original/file-20220301-21-1hi15g4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449077/original/file-20220301-21-1hi15g4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449077/original/file-20220301-21-1hi15g4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449077/original/file-20220301-21-1hi15g4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449077/original/file-20220301-21-1hi15g4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449077/original/file-20220301-21-1hi15g4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449077/original/file-20220301-21-1hi15g4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alexis Wright.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Victor Long</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2007, Wright became the second First Nations writer to win the Miles Franklin Literary Award for her magisterial novel <a href="https://giramondopublishing.com/books/carpentaria/">Carpentaria</a>, then won the Queensland Premier’s Literary Award for fiction – the first Aboriginal author to do so. It was recognition that would have been inconceivable 30 years earlier. </p>
<p>The celebration of her remarkable book was, inevitably, tinged by politics. On the eve of her win in June 2007, the Howard government launched its Northern Territory
Intervention, when troops and public servants were sent into remote First Nations communities. The softly spoken author was asked about the intervention and replied with passionate denunciation: there were real problems of abuse in some communities, but a unilateral intervention without consultation could not be the solution. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-years-on-its-time-we-learned-the-lessons-from-the-failed-northern-territory-intervention-79198">Ten years on, it's time we learned the lessons from the failed Northern Territory Intervention</a>
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<p>The gestation of Carpentaria had taken many years, as Wright had tried to bring to the page the stories and ways of being she had heard from the old people. Every major publisher rejected the opus before Ivor Indyk at Giramondo Press recognised the novel’s unique brilliance. </p>
<p>In an astonishingly original way, Wright tells hitherto invisible stories and captures the spirit of a different way of storytelling. Her stories wove back on themselves, rich with magic, symbolism, grit and determination; they turned time and place and the conventions of English literature inside out and made her a contender for the Nobel Prize for Literature. </p>
<p>The profound change embodied in the accolades she continues to receive, and the insights she shares about the idea of Australia, have very little to do with anxiety about detachment from Britain. Her novels, like many others, better answer the question Who are we? than any politician has for decades. As has happened before and will happen again, by making the political personal and turning it into culture, Wright encourages a new, fit-for-purpose understanding to emerge.</p>
<h2>Culture changes</h2>
<p>In 1890, another Queensland novelist, Arthur Vogan, wrote <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/59771/59771-h/59771-h.htm">The Black Police</a> about the massacres in the state’s Channel Country and his shocked reactions to the way they were applauded by settlers. </p>
<p>It was a surprising popular success. Although local newspapers bristled with reports of deaths from incursions, it was a contentious subject, and one that made for a challenging novel. The critics were scathing, but it struck a nerve and was reprinted several times. </p>
<p>Arthur Vogan lost his job as a journalist, just as Carl Feilberg had done a decade before following his campaign against the Native Police in The Queenslander. Like Feilberg, Vogan also realised he was on a blacklist and had to leave. He moved as far away as he could—to Perth—and gave up writing for some time.</p>
<p>He was one of many authors punished for writing an “anti-Australian” novel. This was a smear that would be spread thickly for decades. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449091/original/file-20220301-23-9pq0ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449091/original/file-20220301-23-9pq0ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449091/original/file-20220301-23-9pq0ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449091/original/file-20220301-23-9pq0ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449091/original/file-20220301-23-9pq0ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449091/original/file-20220301-23-9pq0ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449091/original/file-20220301-23-9pq0ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ruth Park.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1947, Ruth Park was subjected to an organised campaign of threats and vilification for the life she portrayed in Surry Hills in <a href="https://www.griffithreview.com/harp-south-ruth-park/">The Harp in the South</a>, which had won a competition run by the Sydney Morning Herald. Subscription cancellations and letters <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9781460713501/books-that-made-us/">poured in to the editor</a>, all asking different versions of the same question: “Why should Australia, with all her beauty to choose from, have to go to the sewer for her literature?”</p>
<p>Ruth Park also retreated. She left the country amid a chorus of criticism and only returned years later. Now her novels are on school reading lists, Wikipedia lists the dozens of prizes she won, and in 2006 she was recognised in The Bulletin’s list
of the hundred most influential Australians. Culture changes, and as it does, once unpalatable truths can be said out loud and challenge and correct ill-informed angry outbursts.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/books/academic-professional/politics-government/The-Idea-of-Australia-Julianne-Schultz-9781760879303">The Idea of Australia</a> by Julianne Schultz (Allen & Unwin)</em></p>
<hr>
<p><em>Julianne Schultz will talk about The Idea of Australia, in conversation with Peter Mares, <a href="https://www.acmi.net.au/whats-on/the-idea-of-australia-julianne-schultz-peter-mares-in-conversation/">at ACMI on Friday 11 March</a> at 6pm. Free, bookings required. The event will be <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm8C4iP3fuQ">livestreamed online</a> via ACMI’s YouTube channel. She will also be <a href="https://linktr.ee/julianneschultz">speaking at various events</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176256/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julianne Schultz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s political economy was built on the primacy of (white) male labor, male power and male control, writes Julianne Schultz. Women have changed this culture - but still risk abuse when speaking out.Julianne Schultz, Professor of Media and Culture, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1692832021-10-05T11:11:12Z2021-10-05T11:11:12ZView from The Hill: Don’t play ‘shakedown’ with me, Morrison tells Queensland<p>Scott Morrison has a new attack word. “Shakedown”.</p>
<p>“Shakedown” is defined as “an illegal or deceitful attempt to get money from someone, for example by swindling or blackmailing them”.</p>
<p>In yet another episode in the old federal-state blame game, the Morrison government is accusing Queensland in particular of this unsavoury practice, with its Mafia connotations.</p>
<p>As NSW, Victoria and the ACT look towards moving out of lockdowns, the strain will come on already stretched hospital systems.</p>
<p>The hospital capacity of Queensland, with minimal COVID, would be quickly tested once it opened its border – as the Morrison government wants it to do in accordance with the COVID national plan’s vaccination levels. The same goes for Western Australia, which has a notoriously stressed hospital system.</p>
<p>Last week health ministers from every state and territory signed a letter to the federal government saying: “We are entering into the most critical phase of the COVID-19 pandemic response for our hospital systems.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hospital-emergency-departments-are-under-intense-pressure-what-to-know-before-you-go-169098">Hospital emergency departments are under intense pressure. What to know before you go</a>
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<p>"While we still need collaborative effort to find long term solutions to issues impacting our hospital systems, these have now been overtaken by the pressing need to address the situation at hand.</p>
<p>"All states and territories require immediate additional Commonwealth funding to support the pressures currently on our health systems.”</p>
<p>On Friday Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk linked the need for more hospital funding to Queensland’s border opening.</p>
<p>Morrison pushed back, declaring the pandemic should not “be used as an excuse for shakedown politics”.</p>
<p>On Tuesday the prime minister was giving “shakedown” another workout, targeting Queensland hard.</p>
<p>Pressed on Brisbane radio about Palaszczuk wanting more money, Morrison said, “we’re not going to respond to shakedowns in a pandemic.”</p>
<p>He pointed out that “we’ve increased our funding to hospitals in Queensland, since we came to government, by 99.2%”, saying this compared to a 55.3% increase by Queensland over the same period.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vaccination-status-when-your-medical-information-is-private-and-when-its-not-168846">Vaccination status – when your medical information is private and when it's not</a>
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<p>In another interview Morrison went further. “[To] say, ‘well … I’m going to hold the federal government to ransom and to seek to extort from them money on the basis of COVID’ – I just don’t think is the right way to go.”</p>
<p>“We’ve shared 50/50 the costs of COVID on the health system, more than $30 billion around the country […] So we’ve been doing our bit.</p>
<p>"Of course there are challenges, but as a state government, they’ve got to be responsible for their state health system. New South Wales is getting on with it. Victoria is getting on with it. The ACT is getting on with it. So Queensland needs to get on with it.” </p>
<p>There have been mixed messages out of Queensland about whether its hospital system is adequate to the challenges ahead.</p>
<p>Health Minister Greg Hunt insisted on Tuesday “on the advice that we have, all of the states and territories have prepared. They’ve prepared for a surge.”</p>
<p>If Queensland had an issue when they did not have COVID pressures, “that is not related to COVID”, he said, suggesting the state government should spend more money.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-health-advice-and-modelling-has-been-opaque-slow-to-change-and-politicised-in-australia-168088">How COVID health advice and modelling has been opaque, slow to change and politicised in Australia</a>
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<p>Hunt said Queensland had “got themselves in a pickle of on the one hand saying their hospitals are prepared, on the other hand trying to justify using money as a basis for closing borders.”</p>
<p>The adequacy, or not, of the nation’s hospital systems in general, and that in Queensland in particular, is documented in work for national cabinet that’s overseen by the Secretary of the Health Department Brendan Murphy and regularly updated for national cabinet. </p>
<p>Murphy was asked during a Tuesday appearance with Hunt when that document would be released. He said:“I would favour a transparent approach, but national cabinet will make that decision”.</p>
<p>The national cabinet should immediately release this assessment.
The public has the right to know whether we can be confident about hospital adequacy as we move into this new phase of the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison has slammed the Queensland government, as the states press for extra funding to support their hospitals as the nation reopensMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1682592021-09-23T03:35:10Z2021-09-23T03:35:10ZCoalition still well ahead in NSW poll, Newspoll premiers’ ratings, and WA upper house electoral reforms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422807/original/file-20210923-22-lyw56p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Bianca de Marchi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A New South Wales state <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/two-thirds-of-people-support-nsw-opening-at-70-per-cent-vaccination-20210922-p58two.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald gave the Coalition 41% of the primary vote (down two since July), Labor 30% (up two), the Greens 11% (down one), the Shooters 2% (up one) and independents 10% (steady).</p>
<p>Resolve does not provide two party estimates, but analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1440841666483552257">Kevin Bonham</a> estimated 53-47 to the Coalition, a two-point gain for Labor since July. I previously covered issues with the independent vote in Resolve and the lack of two party estimates.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-gains-in-federal-resolve-poll-but-labor-increases-lead-in-victoria-166649">Coalition gains in federal Resolve poll, but Labor increases lead in Victoria</a>
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<p>Incumbent Liberal Gladys Berejiklian led Labor’s Chris Minns by 48-21 as preferred premier (55-16 in July). This poll would have been conducted concurrently with the August and September federal polls from a sample of about 1,100. The federal Resolve polls in those months have had a strong lean to the Coalition compared with other polls (see below).</p>
<p>By 65-17, voters supported “the plan to ease restrictions in mid-October with 70% vaccination rates”. The SMH article implies the Coalition’s position was stronger in September than August, as vaccination uptake makes reopening soon realistic.</p>
<p>The same situation applies to the federal government. Once lockdowns are over, the economy is likely to rebound quickly, and this will assist the Coalition in an election in the first half of next year.</p>
<h2>Newspoll: Andrews has best approval out of Vic, Qld and NSW premiers</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/19/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-9/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that Newspoll asked for premiers’ ratings in last weekend’s poll from a larger than usual national sample of 2,144.</p>
<p>The states considered were NSW, Victoria and Queensland. Victorian Labor premier Daniel Andrews had a 64-35 satisfied rating (net +29). Queensland Labor premier Annastacia Palaszczuk had a 57-38 satisfied rating (net +19). Berejiklian had a 56-40 satisfied rating (net +16).</p>
<p>On handling COVID, Palaszczuk scored far better than her overall rating at 67-31 good, while Andrews and Berejiklian scored nearly the same (63-35 good for Andrews, 56-41 good for Berejiklian).</p>
<p>Nationally, Scott Morrison had a -4 net approval in Newspoll; he was at +15 in Queensland, -3 in NSW and -16 in Victoria.</p>
<p>Nationally, Morrison had a 49-48 poor rating for his handling of COVID, unchanged from <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-negative-newspoll-rating-for-morrison-since-start-of-pandemic-47-of-unvaccinated-would-take-pfizer-but-not-astrazeneca-165665">six weeks ago</a>. By 53-42, voters expressed more concern with relaxing restrictions too fast than too slowly (62-34 in January).</p>
<h2>WA upper house electoral reform: group ticket voting and malapportionment to be scrapped</h2>
<p>The massive WA Labor landslide at the March state election gave them large majorities in both chambers of the WA parliament – the first ever Labor majority in the upper house.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-and-morrison-gain-in-newspoll-and-the-new-resolve-poll-159628">Coalition and Morrison gain in Newspoll, and the new Resolve poll</a>
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<p>Labor set up a committee to look at reforming the upper house’s electoral system. There are two current major problems: malapportionment and group ticket voting (GTV). The Mining & Pastoral region and Agricultural region elect one-third of the upper house on just 10% of the state’s population. GTV allowed Daylight Saving to win a seat in March on just 98 primary votes.</p>
<p>Labor will adopt the committee’s proposals to change to a statewide election of 37 members, up from the current 36. GTV will be replaced by optional above-the-line voting, in which a single “1” above the line will stay within the party it is cast for. Voters can number “2”, “3”, etc, above the line to continue directing preferences after their original party is excluded.</p>
<p>This system is the same as is currently used in elections for the NSW and SA upper houses. However, these states elect half their upper house at each election (21 seats up each election in NSW and 11 in SA). The WA proposal is for all 37 seats to be elected at once, so the quota will be just 2.63%.</p>
<p>With optional preferential voting, parties will be able to win seats from much lower vote shares than 2.63%. It’s likely to lead to cluttered ballot papers at the next election.</p>
<p>ABC election analyst <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/wa-to-adopt-state-wide-election-for-the-legislative-council/">Antony Green</a> has much more on the WA reforms. I hope the Victorian government scraps GTV before the 2022 state election – Victoria is now the last Australian jurisdiction with GTV.</p>
<h2>Other state developments: NT, Victoria and Tasmania</h2>
<p>The Labor Northern Territory government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-daly-by-election-2021/results">gained Daly</a> at a September 11 byelection by a 56.0-44.0 margin over the CLP, a 7.2% swing to Labor. <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1436643545197076483">Bonham said</a> this is the first time a government gained from an opposition at a byelection anywhere in Australia since Benalla (Victoria state) in 2000.</p>
<p>Matthew Guy ousted Michael O'Brien as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-07/victorian-liberal-leadership-michael-obrien-matthew-guy/100439184">Victorian Liberal leader</a> at a leadership spill on September 7. Guy led the Liberals to a landslide defeat at the November 2018 state election.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-August-2021.pdf">Tasmanian EMRS</a> poll, conducted August 7-9 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 49% (steady since the May election), Labor 28% (steady) and the Greens 13% (up one). Incumbent Peter Gutwein led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 59-29 (61-26 in EMRS’ last state poll in February).</p>
<h2>Coalition leads on estimated preference flows in federal Resolve poll</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-holds-lead-but-albanese-narrows-the-gap-as-preferred-prime-minister-20210921-p58tda.html">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newapapers, conducted September 15-19 from a sample of 1,606, gave the Coalition 39% of the primary vote (down one since August), Labor 31% (down one), the Greens 10% (down two), One Nation 4% (up two), Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party 3% and independents 9% (down one).</p>
<p>No two-party estimate was given, but <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1440119743294230534">Bonham estimated</a> 51-49 to the Coalition, a one-point gain for the Coalition. </p>
<p>There’s divergence in voting intentions between Resolve and <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-gains-a-point-in-newspoll-but-morrison-slides-back-into-net-negative-ratings-168076">Newspoll</a>, which was 53-47 to Labor. But there’s been movement in all recent polls to the Coalition, which was up one in Newspoll and up two in Morgan to a 52.5-47.5 Labor lead.</p>
<p>49% gave Morrison a good rating for his performance in recent weeks, and 45% a poor rating, for a net +4 rating, up five since August. Albanese’s net approval was up three to -16. Morrison led as preferred PM by 45-26 (46-23 in August).</p>
<p>The Liberals and Morrison led Labor and Albanese by 42-24 on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">economic management</a> (44-19 in August). On COVID, the Liberals led by 37-24 (37-22 last time).</p>
<h2>Canadian election called two years early gives nearly status quo result</h2>
<p>I live blogged the results of the Canadian election that PM Justin Trudeau called two years early for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/21/canadian-election-live-german-election-minus-five-days/">The Poll Bludger</a>. At the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election">2019 election</a>, Trudeau’s centre-left Liberals won 157 of the 338 seats and the Conservatives 121, despite a 1.2% lead for the Conservatives in vote shares. In 2021, the <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/">results are</a> nearly the same.</p>
<p>The German election will be held Sunday, with polls closing at 2am Monday AEST. Parties need to either win at least 5% nationally or three of the 299 single-member seats to qualify for a proportional seat allocation. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/13/german-election-poll-tracker-who-will-be-the-next-chancellor">Guardian’s poll aggregate</a>
suggests the overall left parties have a narrow lead over the overall right. I will be live blogging for The Poll Bludger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168259/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even in the locked down states of NSW and Victoria, incumbent premiers continue to poll well ahead of their rivals.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1549512021-02-14T18:50:35Z2021-02-14T18:50:35ZLabor’s wicked problem: how to win back Queensland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383931/original/file-20210212-21-wzk3qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal opposition leader Anthony Albanese’s recent <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6229936095001">six-day tour</a> of Queensland came not a minute too soon for Labor’s prospects in the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-has-sent-signals-major-parties-prepare-for-spring-2021-federal-election-20210121-p56vzv.html">possible</a> election year of 2021. </p>
<p>The old adage that you can’t win an election without winning Queensland was proven roundly by ex-Labor leader Bill Shorten’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-2019-election-results-education-divide-explains-the-coalitions-upset-victory-118601">performance in 2019</a>. Albanese knows the party has to pick up at least three or four Queensland seats to have any hope of dislodging the Coalition government. </p>
<h2>The smoking ruin of 2019</h2>
<p>The scale of Labor’s 2019 <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland disaster</a> bears close inspection.</p>
<p>With a primary vote of just 26.7%, Labor won only six out of thirty Queensland seats. This was the party’s worst House of Representatives result since <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-gough-whitlams-dismissal-as-prime-minister-74148">the Dismissal</a> election of 1975 when it was left with just one. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Ex-Labor leader Bill Shorten campaigning in Queensland in 2019." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383930/original/file-20210212-15-vyrjj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383930/original/file-20210212-15-vyrjj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383930/original/file-20210212-15-vyrjj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383930/original/file-20210212-15-vyrjj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383930/original/file-20210212-15-vyrjj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383930/original/file-20210212-15-vyrjj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383930/original/file-20210212-15-vyrjj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor only managed to secure one in five lower house seats in Queensland under Bill Shorten.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Only one Labor senator (newcomer Nita Green) was elected — the party’s worst upper house performance in Queensland since the current Senate voting system was established in 1949. </p>
<p>The Australian Election Study shows the <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">4.3% swing</a> against Labor in Queensland was almost four times the Australian average. It also gave the Coalition an extra two lower house seats — enough to win the election.</p>
<h2>But Queenslanders do vote Labor</h2>
<p>Juxtapose this with Queensland Labor premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s third consecutive state election win in 2020 and you can see Labor is not inherently the problem. </p>
<p>A large number of Queenslanders voted against Shorten in 2019 and for Palaszczuk in 2020. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-peat-palaszczuk-why-queenslanders-swung-behind-labor-in-historic-election-149076">'Three-peat Palaszczuk': why Queenslanders swung behind Labor in historic election</a>
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<hr>
<p>So Labor can, has and does win resoundingly in the sunshine state. Labor’s job now is to win back the Queenslanders lost in 2019, substantially build on their numbers, and bring in enough seats to underwrite victory. </p>
<p>On five of the last seven occasions Labor won a federal election, it won a majority of seats in Queensland. Today, that means Labor would have to pick up another ten seats to take its current tally of six seats to 16 out of the current 30 lower house seats. </p>
<p>Internal party hopes to pick up at least three or four seats, rather than ten, shows how low is the bar Labor has set itself for the coming poll. </p>
<h2>A September poll?</h2>
<p>Shorten <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">did not engage</a> Queenslanders much. The question is, can Albanese succeed where Shorten failed? This is especially so with voters in outer-suburban Brisbane, in the suburbs of regional cities, and in the regions generally, who turned so savagely against federal Labor in 2019.</p>
<p>Key will be whether Albanese can convince Queenslanders he will act in their interests, rather than straddle the barbed wire fence Shorten did on resource sector jobs and the environment. On this, Albanese has to bring regional voters with him, while holding onto environmentally-motivated inner-city ones.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-is-running-out-of-time-to-solve-labors-climate-crisis-he-needs-a-plan-that-works-for-two-australias-150066">Albanese is running out of time to solve Labor's climate crisis. He needs a plan that works for two Australias</a>
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<p>Albanese knows he cannot win unless he can convince Queenslanders on both jobs and the environment, and his <a href="https://theconversation.com/embattled-albanese-uses-reshuffle-for-a-political-reset-154168">recent frontbench reshuffle</a> was designed with this in mind. Deputy leader Richard Marles, now shadow minister for reconstruction, employment, skills and small business, and Chris Bowen, shadow minister for climate change and energy, will be expected to deliver on the policy and politics of this challenge. </p>
<p>They don’t have a lot of time. The government will likely want to capitalise on the popularity of the upcoming COVID-19 <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-vaccine-rollout-the-ultimate-test-for-scott-morrisons-credentials-on-delivery-154655">vaccine roll out</a>, and get in ahead of voter unhappiness at the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-04/jobkeeper-subsidy-drops-final-phase-before-gone-in-march/13023486">withdrawal of pandemic stimulus benefits</a>, by calling an early election. </p>
<p>With a September 2021 poll widely expected in Canberra, despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/10/20/scott-morrison-federal-election/">protestations to the contrary</a>, the opposition leader urgently needs Queenslanders to get to know him better and vice versa. </p>
<h2>Getting to know you</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has made it difficult for Albanese to go to Queensland over the past year. </p>
<p>Albanese has to flesh himself out. He has to spend a lot of time in Queensland projecting, as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2021/feb/02/labors-promise-to-be-on-your-side-is-compelling-and-could-win-them-an-election">new Labor slogan</a> has it, he’s “on their side”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Anthony Albanese and Labor MPs Terri Butler and Jim Chalmers inspect a motorbike." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383929/original/file-20210212-23-14miuqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C4766%2C3274&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383929/original/file-20210212-23-14miuqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383929/original/file-20210212-23-14miuqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383929/original/file-20210212-23-14miuqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383929/original/file-20210212-23-14miuqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383929/original/file-20210212-23-14miuqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383929/original/file-20210212-23-14miuqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Last week, Anthony Albanese was joined on the pre-campaign trail by several frontbenchers, including Terri Butler and Jim Chalmers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In his six-day visit to Queensland, Albanese spruiked Labor’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthony-albaneses-plan-to-boost-protections-for-australians-in-insecure-work-154953">new industrial relations policy</a> with the discipline necessary for a winning leader. Its focus on the situation of marginal and gig economy workers has potential appeal for one of the kinds of voters Labor needs to connect with, providing Albanese can garner their attention for long enough to hear him. </p>
<p>It will become clear in coming months whether Albanese can do the theatre of politics well enough to cut through with initiatives like this and make inroads for Labor. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anthony-albaneses-plan-to-boost-protections-for-australians-in-insecure-work-154953">Anthony Albanese's plan to boost protections for Australians in insecure work</a>
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<p>Excellent initiatives in his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/08/anthony-albanese-unveils-childcare-and-energy-plans-in-budget-2020-reply-speech">2020 budget reply speech</a> on childcare, industry and energy policy disappeared like water into sand. It’s no good having the policies if you can’t communicate them and make them stick in voters’ minds.</p>
<h2>The Queensland opportunity</h2>
<p>The flipside of Labor’s woeful 2019 result is it would be hard for anyone to do worse at the next poll. Queensland now represents an enormous opportunity. If Albanese can turn it around for Labor there, he can win the next election. </p>
<p>That possibility is greater than many people may realise. It is unusual for a prime minister to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-10/qld-state-election-2020-scott-morrison-joins-capaign-labor-lnp/12748066">campaign hard</a> for a state counterpart — as Morrison did for the Liberal National Party in Queensland last year — only for that state leader to go down in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-peat-palaszczuk-why-queenslanders-swung-behind-labor-in-historic-election-149076">comprehensive loss</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-win-an-election-do-the-substance-as-well-as-the-theatre-of-politics-144795">How to win an election? Do the substance as well as the theatre of politics</a>
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<p>Morrison’s inability to help then Queensland LNP leader Deb Frecklington stop Palaszczuk’s emphatic win shows there are limits to his political cleverness and appeal. After warming to him relative to Shorten in 2019, voters there revealed a new scepticism about Morrison in 2020.</p>
<p>But Albanese has a lot of work to do to convince Queenslanders he is worthy of their vote. The more time he spends there, the better, and his latest trip was a good down-payment on that task. </p>
<p>If his approach works, opinion polls will move in Labor’s favour and the party’s marginal seat-holders around Australia will start to breathe easier.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154951/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Wallace has received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Queensland was a smoking ruin for federal Labor in 2019. As we head towards a possible election later this year, the sunshine state presents a big challenge — and opportunity — for Anthony Albanese.Chris Wallace, Associate Professor, 50/50 By 2030 Foundation, Faculty of Business Government & Law, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1500642020-12-27T20:42:12Z2020-12-27T20:42:12ZVictory, history and a pink recession: the highs and lows for women in 2020<p>It has been both a remarkably good and remarkably bad year for Australian women. </p>
<p>Their leadership in Australian politics and public life has been more prominent and successful than ever before. Yet the pandemic has set back the broad swathe of women at home, in education and in the workplace.</p>
<h2>A new golden age</h2>
<p>First the good news. In 2020 we have entered something of a golden age for women in political leadership. </p>
<p>In October, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk emerged as the most successful female politician in Australian history, when she became the first woman <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-peat-palaszczuk-why-queenslanders-swung-behind-labor-in-historic-election-149076">to win three elections in a row</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-making-election-history-with-two-women-leaders-so-why-is-the-campaign-focused-on-men-148261">Queensland is making election history with two women leaders, so why is the campaign focused on men?</a>
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<p>Palaszczuk’s victory capped her 2015 success as the first woman in Australia to win an election from opposition. It also follows her 2017 win, when she created <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/16/the-palaszczuk-ministry-includes-a-majority-of-women-but-dont-expect-a-revolution">gender equity</a> in an Australian ministry for the first time. </p>
<p>But a woman would have been premier whatever happened on October 31. With Deb Frecklington leading the LNP, the Queensland election was the first state or federal election to see two women going head-to-head in a contest for premier.</p>
<p>Queensland has had a female leader for 10 of the past 13 years — between them, Anna Bligh and Palaszczuk have won four elections. </p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s achievement, and Bligh’s before her, is worth pondering. They show the often privately voiced assumption in federal political circles that male leaders are more likely succeed in what is seen as the masculinist state of Queensland as one of the great lies of Australian politics.</p>
<h2>Palaszczuk and Berejiklian</h2>
<p>Palaszczuk also survived <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/21/nsw-pressure-to-reopen-state-borders-triggers-accusations-of-bullying-from-wa-and-queensland-premiers">sustained attacks</a> on her COVID border management in the lead up to and during the state election. She <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-premiers-facing-elections-play-hardball-with-hard-borders-145563">stared down NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian</a> and brushed off similar pressure from Prime Minister Scott Morrison.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk at a press conference" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375032/original/file-20201215-19-1ymyr3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375032/original/file-20201215-19-1ymyr3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375032/original/file-20201215-19-1ymyr3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375032/original/file-20201215-19-1ymyr3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375032/original/file-20201215-19-1ymyr3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375032/original/file-20201215-19-1ymyr3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375032/original/file-20201215-19-1ymyr3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian repeatedly called on Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk to open the borders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marc McCormack/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Queensland premier’s battles with her NSW counterpart Berejiklian also draw attention to another important feature of Australian politics in 2020. From opposite sides of politics, these two women govern about half of Australia’s population (about 13 million out of almost 26 million people) – literally, no small thing. </p>
<p>If there was a NSW election tomorrow, it too would be governed by a woman whatever the result, since the NSW opposition leader is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/fear-is-a-positive-thing-state-labor-s-new-leader-jodi-mckay-20190719-p528qj.html">Labor’s Jodi McKay</a>.</p>
<h2>Women win big in the ACT</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, Australia got its first majority female ministry in a majority female parliament at the <a href="https://www.broadagenda.com.au/2020/the-act-women-and-the-body-politic/">ACT Assembly election</a> in October. Each party in the ACT Assembly is at least 50% women, and the ACT Liberals chose an all-woman leadership team in the election aftermath. </p>
<p>New <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-28/canberra-liberals-elizabeth-lee-opposition-leader-fresh-start/12819806">ACT opposition leader Elizabeth Lee</a> — as an Australian of Korean heritage — is the latest example of women thriving in politics despite not fitting the male Anglo-Celtic stereotype.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1321410424475037702"}"></div></p>
<p>She joins Palaszczuk, with Polish and German heritage, Berejiklian with Armenian heritage and senior politicians like <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/penny-wong-unauthorised/">Penny Wong</a>, with Chinese-Malaysian heritage and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/13/australians-have-sacrificed-so-much-tanya-pliberseks-vision-for-the-nation-after-coronavirus">Tanya Plibersek</a>, with Slovenian heritage — all making conspicuous contributions to Australian public life.</p>
<p>Lastly, it remains too little known that men and women are <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-a-mans-pandemic-world-how-policies-compound-the-pain-for-women-in-the-age-of-covid-19-144796">almost equally</a> represented in the federal Labor caucus – a mighty achievement and, given its commitment to the quota mechanism that helped bring this about, one set to last.</p>
<h2>Women prominent in pandemic response</h2>
<p>Women leading in a broader sense has been more conspicuous in 2020 than ever before, too. </p>
<p>Female chief health officers have been prominent in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Australian Council of Trade Unions leadership team of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-voice-of-women-is-missing-call-for-new-body-to-advise-on-budget-20201110-p56d54.html">president Michele O’Neil</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-moment-that-helped-inform-sally-mcmanus-political-values-20200417-p54kxi.html">secretary Sally McManus</a> have been unrelenting in their efforts especially for those in the most vulnerable parts of Australia’s highly casualised workforce – typically women.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375035/original/file-20201215-15-164ehh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375035/original/file-20201215-15-164ehh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375035/original/file-20201215-15-164ehh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375035/original/file-20201215-15-164ehh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375035/original/file-20201215-15-164ehh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375035/original/file-20201215-15-164ehh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375035/original/file-20201215-15-164ehh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant has been front and centre of Australia’s pandemic response.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Australia’s main employer organisation, the Business Council of Australia, is female-led too. Jennifer Westacott is due to reach her ten year milestone as chief executive in 2021. The chief justice of the High Court is also a woman, Susan Kiefel.</p>
<p>That’s the good news. The bad? </p>
<h2>But (still) too few women in the federal Coalition</h2>
<p>Less than one-quarter of Morrison government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-27/women-still-underrepresented-in-parliament/11148020">MPs are women</a>. This is because the federal Coalition parties remain stubbornly <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-liberal-party-is-failing-women-miserably-compared-to-other-democracies-and-needs-quotas-110172">against the proven method</a> – quotas – which can change this. They do so on narrow ideological grounds.</p>
<p>ABC journalist Louise Milligan’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/inside-the-canberra-bubble/12864676">Four Corners report</a> on the bullying of female staffers inside the government provides the latest in a string of reminders of the <a href="https://www.broadagenda.com.au/2020/its-time-to-take-stock-of-sexual-harassment-in-parliament/">cultural problems in Coalition ranks</a>. These are both a product and cause of gender inequity in the Coalition. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Scott Morrison flanked by Josh Frydenberg and Michael McCormack at a cabinet meeting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375041/original/file-20201215-20-guwd7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375041/original/file-20201215-20-guwd7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375041/original/file-20201215-20-guwd7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375041/original/file-20201215-20-guwd7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375041/original/file-20201215-20-guwd7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375041/original/file-20201215-20-guwd7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375041/original/file-20201215-20-guwd7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Women still are still in the minority in the Coalition’s ranks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>This lack of female representation has fed into a disastrously gendered <a href="https://theconversation.com/she-wont-be-right-mate-how-the-government-shaped-a-blokey-lockdown-followed-by-a-blokey-recovery-140336">policy response</a> to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was already especially bad for Australian women. They won’t quickly forget the government providing free childcare during lockdown, only to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-08/free-childcare-coronavirus-support-to-end-july/12332066">withdraw it</a> as one of its first policy decisions post-lockdown.</p>
<p>Already <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/data/fact-sheets/gender-workplace-statistics-at-a-glance-2020">in a weaker position</a> in the workforce, concentrated in low-paid, casualised work, women disproportionately withdrew from the labour market compared to men during the pandemic — the hasty withdrawal of free childcare was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-new-childcare-system-that-encourages-women-to-work-not-punishes-them-for-it-142275">critical factor</a> in this. </p>
<p>The 14% difference between female and male average full-time weekly earnings – <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/data/fact-sheets/australias-gender-pay-gap-statistics-2020">the national gender pay gap</a> – also influenced family decisions about who should pick up the extra burden at home. This and gender stereotyping saw men’s domestic labour rise a little during the pandemic and women’s <a href="https://womensagenda.com.au/latest/fears-of-a-mum-cession-experts-warn-of-pandemic-motherhood-penalty/">rise a lot</a>, especially for childcare and home-schooling. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/she-wont-be-right-mate-how-the-government-shaped-a-blokey-lockdown-followed-by-a-blokey-recovery-140336">She won't be right, mate: how the government shaped a blokey lockdown followed by a blokey recovery</a>
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<p>Women <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-one-escaped-covids-impacts-but-big-fall-in-tertiary-enrolments-was-80-women-why-149994">withdrew from higher education</a> at greater rates than men during the pandemic. Domestic violence, overwhelmingly committed by men against women,<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-help-required-the-crisis-in-family-violence-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-144126">rose too</a>. </p>
<p>Despite a chorus of community voices and <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-viz-narrow-vision-the-budget-overlooks-the-hardest-hit-in-favour-of-the-hardest-hats-147601">academic analyses</a> showing how and where the Morrison government was either blind to, or actively worsening,<a href="https://theconversation.com/she-wont-be-right-mate-how-the-government-shaped-a-blokey-lockdown-followed-by-a-blokey-recovery-140336">the gendered impacts of its pandemic response</a>, it failed to change course. Bereft of enough women to lean against these policies, the Morrison government discounted and disadvantaged women across the board. </p>
<h2>The agenda for 2021</h2>
<p>So a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/focus-recovery-on-pink-collar-jobs-to-avoid-a-pink-recession-20200827-p55prm.html">“pink” recession</a> has taken hold. 2020 likely marks a structural lurch backward in the position of women at home, in education, and in the labour force so significant it takes years to recover.</p>
<p>We need to take a leaf from the grace, guts and drive displayed by women working to make things better, come what may. They get up, get going, show solidarity with other women, and get things done. </p>
<p>Sharing the load, sharing the benefits and sharing the power ought to be on every woman’s agenda, and every other thinking person’s agenda, in 2021.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-is-a-disaster-for-mothers-employment-and-no-working-from-home-is-not-the-solution-142650">COVID-19 is a disaster for mothers' employment. And no, working from home is not the solution</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Wallace has received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Women’s leadership reached new heights this year, just as the Coalition’s gendered policy response to the pandemic set women back across the board.Chris Wallace, Associate Professor, 50/50 By 2030 Foundation, Faculty of Business Government & Law, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1499862020-11-18T18:54:59Z2020-11-18T18:54:59ZThere’s a big problem with the Murdoch media no one is talking about — how it treats women leaders<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369933/original/file-20201118-15-nhiwpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben McKay/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp has long dominated the Australian media landscape, wielding great <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mitchell_Hobbs/publication/269710349_'Kick_this_mob_out'_The_Murdoch_media_and_the_Australian_Labor_Government_2007_to_2013/links/5494b4230cf20f487d2c4715.pdf">political and cultural influence</a>. </p>
<p>Former prime minister Kevin Rudd’s <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list?id=EN1938">record-breaking petition</a> calling for a royal commission into Australian media ownership has once again put this issue in the spotlight. It has gained more than <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-09/media-diversity-petition-started-by-kevin-rudd-lodged-parliament/12863982">500,000 signatures</a> and led to a <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/senate-votes-to-hold-media-diversity-inquiry-after-record-breaking-murdoch-petition">Senate inquiry</a> into media diversity. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/paper-chase-why-kevin-rudds-call-for-a-royal-commission-into-news-corp-may-lead-nowhere-147996">Paper chase: why Kevin Rudd's call for a royal commission into News Corp may lead nowhere</a>
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<p>Rudd has described News Corp as a “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cancer-on-our-democracy-kevin-rudd-calls-for-inquiry-into-murdoch-media-dominance">cancer on democracy</a>”, while fellow former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has labelled it “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/nov/10/qa-malcolm-turnbull-clashes-with-news-corps-paul-kelly-over-climate-coverage">pure propaganda</a>,” and slammed its “campaign on climate denial”. Labor’s Julia Gillard, has also made <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/julia-gillard-blasts-biased-murdoch-news-corp-20141028-11ctmj">similar claims</a>. </p>
<p>However, these discussions fail to consider how the Murdoch press is particularly hostile towards women politicians.</p>
<h2>How does the Murdoch press represent women?</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/media-gender-stereotypes-worse-for-gillard-than-for-thatcher/11996326">studying media representations</a> of women in politics, I’ve noticed a stark difference in Murdoch press coverage of men and women leaders.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard leaving a press conference at Parliament House." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369927/original/file-20201118-17-i2f244.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369927/original/file-20201118-17-i2f244.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369927/original/file-20201118-17-i2f244.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369927/original/file-20201118-17-i2f244.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369927/original/file-20201118-17-i2f244.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369927/original/file-20201118-17-i2f244.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369927/original/file-20201118-17-i2f244.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">There is a difference in the way male and female leaders are represented in News Corp papers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>My research, recently published in <a href="https://t.co/0OdPkrP4NL?amp=1">Feminist Media Studies</a>, compared Australian media portrayals of Gillard’s prime ministerial rise with that of Helen Clark’s in New Zealand. Both leaders experienced a sexist focus on their gender, appearance and personal lives. But it was far more frequent and intense for Gillard. </p>
<p>My research suggests two key explanations for this contrast: the different political contexts they operated in, and the dominating influence of the Murdoch press in Australia versus its absence in New Zealand. </p>
<p>As Rudd has argued, the Murdoch press is hyper-partisan and ideologically driven, “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/how-much-influence-does-the-murdoch-media-have-in-australia-20201015-p565dk.html">blending editorial opinion with news reporting</a>”. News Corp is also known to reward Murdoch’s allies, while <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/sep/20/very-australian-coup-murdoch-turnbull-political-death-news-corps">damaging his enemies</a>. </p>
<p>Yet this has notably gendered ramifications. Murdoch’s conservative morality, traditionalist values, and opposition to left-wing movements appear constantly in his newspapers, making them uniquely hostile to women. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/courting-the-chameleon-how-the-us-election-reveals-rupert-murdochs-political-colours-149910">Courting the chameleon: how the US election reveals Rupert Murdoch's political colours</a>
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<p>Gillard did not simply threaten the political status quo as Australia’s first woman prime minister. As an unmarried, child-free, atheist woman from the left of the ALP, she also threatened Murdoch’s conservative ideology. His newspaper therefore portrayed Gillard in a highly gendered — even misogynistic — manner <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10361146.2017.1374347">intended to undermine</a> her. This was evident in the criticisms of her fashion choices, such as a headline condemning her “technicolour screamcoat” in The Daily Telegraph.</p>
<h2>Things have not changed since Gillard’s days</h2>
<p>Though it’s been ten years since Gillard became prime minister, not much has changed. News Corp papers continue to attack women in politics, especially if they are from the left. </p>
<p>Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is another seasoned veteran of News Corps’ sexist coverage. This includes the Sunshine Coast Daily’s 2019 <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-paper-backtracks-after-using-violent-imagery-to-depict-annastacia-palaszczuk-117501">front page image</a>, which featured Palaszczuk in crosshairs with the headline, “Anna, you’re next”. </p>
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<p>More recently, <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/is-palaszczuk-now-punishing-sydneysiders-over-a-personal-gripe-she-has-with-gladys/news-story/658631747c9158d544f637076cbbcac1">The Courier Mail</a> labelled her dealings with Liberal NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian over border closures, “schoolgirl behaviour”. </p>
<p>Even Liberal women aren’t immune from sexist coverage. Julie Bishop, the Coalition’s former foreign affairs minister, was likened to the power-hungry “Lady Macbeth” by <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nation/to-be-or-not-to-be-julie-lady-macbeth-bishop-is-the-voters-pick/news-story/3a7fad34421e5d4d325a23d7f3512ae3">The Australian</a> for her 2018 leadership tilt. She was also <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/libs-would-never-have-looked-to-starstruck-bishop/news-story/fa44f51f9aa63cbf36743fac9996d102">ridiculed</a> by the same paper for calling out the Liberal party’s sexist bullying culture.</p>
<p>Berejiklian has also endured sexist reportage, particularly during the recent scandal over her relationship with disgraced former NSW MP Daryl Maguire. One <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/premier-gladys-berejiklians-wedding-fantasy-defies-laws-of-blokespeak/news-story/10ada392f2091ec28b114395c1efe87b">Daily Telegraph</a> article waxed lyrical about her supposed “wedding fantasy”, a “feminine albeit old-fashioned thing to do” which, they argued, might have kept a workaholic like Berejiiklian “sane”. </p>
<p>However, the News Corp’s partisan bias towards the Coalition is also evident in these stories. Rather than holding Berejiklian to account, the Murdoch press largely ran <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/why-berejiklian-should-stand-firm-in-this-sad-icac-affair/news-story/140cd04fd2b5a57a287bd991612535c0">sympathetic stories</a> about the premier’s behaviour. This starkly contrasts with the onslaught of sexist coverage Gillard received during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/awu-scandal-says-more-about-the-medias-ethics-than-the-pms-11035">AWU affair</a>, which haunted her for the rest of her term in office.</p>
<h2>International leaders also under attack</h2>
<p>Australian women aren’t the only targets. The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/16/jacindamania-set-to-return-jacinda-ardern-as-new-zealand-pm">globally popular</a> New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has frequently borne the brunt of biased News Corp coverage. </p>
<p>In the lead up to the 2020 New Zealand election, columnist Greg Sheridan argued Ardern doesn’t live up to the hype, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/jacinda-ardern-goes-global-but-kiwis-pay-the-price/news-story/97286e9e9a8ec08d1dd40dddfcd573d6">claiming</a> in The Australian,</p>
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<p>part of the international Jacindamania comes from the fact she is a young left-wing woman who gave birth in office and took maternity leave.</p>
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<p>Sheridan also labelled her government’s COVID-19 response and progressive style of politics as “inherently authoritarian” that also “enjoys bossing people around”. </p>
<p>When Ardern won the election in a historic landslide, The Australian <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/danger-across-the-ditch-as-incompetent-leader-ardern-wins-office/news-story/6dfed9819cbe1334602cbc240dfe1b7f">responded with a piece</a> describing her as “grossly incompetent” and “the worst person to lead New Zealand through this economic turbulence”. </p>
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<p>Notably, the clear bias here drew criticism from the <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/disgraceful-australian-columnist-slammed-for-calling-jacinda-ardern-grossly-incompetent.html">New Zealand press</a>. </p>
<p>In August, Johannes Leak’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australians-racist-kamala-harris-cartoon-shows-why-diversity-in-newsrooms-matters-144503">cartoon</a> in The Australian, also received <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/business/media/murdoch-racism-kamala-harris.html">international condemnation</a> for its misogynistic and racist depiction of vice-presidential nominee Kamala Harris. </p>
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<h2>Don’t forget gender</h2>
<p>It is clear the Murdoch press has a “woman problem”. </p>
<p>This poses a real obstacle for women in politics, especially those who oppose Murdoch’s conservative ideology. But it also broadcasts a message about women’s roles and place in society more generally — that no matter how privileged or powerful a woman might be, it’s nearly impossible to escape sexist commentary and the objectifying male gaze.</p>
<p>This is why it is so essential to hold the Murdoch press to account in a specifically gendered light.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blair Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is a renewed discussion about the role of News Corp in Australia. But so far, this is ignoring how the Murdoch press is particularly hostile towards female politicians.Blair Williams, Associate Lecturer, School of Political Science and International Relations, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492442020-11-01T09:22:32Z2020-11-01T09:22:32ZView from The Hill: Victoria’s pain reinforced Pałaszczuk’s winning message<p>In an election victory driven by her management of COVID, the dire second wave in Victoria likely helped Annastacia Pałaszczuk. Defending her tough border policy and her message about keeping Queenslanders safe, she had a real life example to illustrate what happens when the virus gets away.</p>
<p>Her win reinforced the accepted wisdom that this crisis favours incumbents – provided people think they are doing the right thing.</p>
<p>The Queensland outcome might at one level be galling for the federal government – which has been sniping at Pałaszczuk’s border policy for months – but at another it is also reassuring for Scott Morrison, who has so far managed the pandemic response well.</p>
<p>That said, Morrison has a rockier road to navigate to his election. The federal poll is a year and a half away, and (assuming the virus now stays under control) the challenge for him is economic, which will be complicated as he juggles withdrawing the current massive fiscal support without any disaster.</p>
<p>While some details of the Queensland result are yet to be finalised, Pałaszczuk is set for an increased majority, with Labor securing a swing towards it. For a government seeking a third term, and one which had been – pre-COVID – under criticism for its performance, this is a remarkable achievement.</p>
<p>Despite some pre-election speculation, and the plight of the tourist industry, Labor’s seats in the north of the state did not collapse.</p>
<p>The difficulties of the Queensland economy and its high unemployment did not translate into electoral damage for the government.</p>
<p>And nearly a week’s campaigning by the prime minister produced not the slightest sign of a Morrison “miracle” for the Liberal National Party. On the other side, the absence of Anthony Albanese could have been a bonus for Labor.</p>
<p>The Pałaszczuk government was helped by its opposition, with recent fighting between the LNP organisation and the parliamentary party. On the main issue of this COVID election, LNP leader Deb Frecklington could only say she too would follow the health advice. She may not have not been believed, given the attacks on the closed border coming from the conservative side.</p>
<p>Apart from the result, the big story of Saturday was the collapse of the One Nation vote. What was left of that vote favoured Labor via preferences, probably reflecting older voters’ COVID fears.</p>
<p>Pauline Hanson was low profile during the election; whether she can gear up her party when the federal contest comes remains to be seen. It’s clear how “all about Pauline” is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation – if she’s not going flat out, there’s nothing much there.</p>
<p>Just as the Victorian wave played into Pałaszczuk’s story line, so did the federal pressure on the premier. The smaller (in population) states are parochial: Palaszczuk benefitted by being seen pushing back against the “open up” brigade.</p>
<p>The benefit was in net terms – she lost skin when some hardline decisions hurt interstate families who needed health care or who wanted to visit sick relatives or to attend funerals.</p>
<p>Apart from the warm glow of a fraternal success, the Queensland result doesn’t bring a lot that’s positive for federal Labor. </p>
<p>For it, the message about incumbency is not encouraging.</p>
<p>The ALP also knows Queenslanders are quite comfortable with federal and state governments being of different stripes. The voters can judge who’s who, and just because they trust Pałaszczuk Labor doesn’t mean they are more likely to embrace Albanese Labor.</p>
<p>Morrison goes down well in Queensland when he’s campaigning for his own government.</p>
<p>Federal Labor must work out its detailed positions on key policies – climate, energy and resources – and more effectively sell its leader, before its fortunes can improve in that state.</p>
<p>Both will be difficult. Attempts to paper over the internal differences on climate and energy won’t cut it, but forging genuine agreement is a struggle.</p>
<p>Albanese is up against it when the times are suiting Morrison.</p>
<p>Post Saturday’s result, the premier has indicated Queensland’s border ban on people from greater Sydney and Victoria won’t be reviewed for another month. That would still leave time for Christmas reunions, but it could be a tight-run thing.</p>
<p>Health Minister Greg Hunt said on Sunday: “we’re now, I think, in a position where we would like to see New South Wales and Queensland be able as soon as possible to have free movement between the jurisdictions. And once everybody is comfortable that Victoria does have its contact tracing to gold standard levels, then I think we’ll see a single national bubble in due course.”</p>
<p>With Victoria on Sunday recording zero new cases and community transmission in Australia virtually stamped out, Australia is at this moment in an extraordinarily good place on the health front.</p>
<p>But with COVID rampaging again in Britain and many other countries, and the memory of the Victorian experience fresh, there can be no complacency.</p>
<h2>Update: In an about-face, Frecklington says she won’t seek to stay leader</h2>
<p>Deb Frecklington announced on Monday she will not seek to remain as LNP leader – after on Saturday night declaring firmly “I will continue as the leader”. </p>
<p>Her Saturday statement surprised observers, coming not only after a devastating loss but against the background of an automatic spill of leadership positions post-election, when she would have faced a challenge. </p>
<p>Asked what had changed her mind, she said probably her husband and daughters. While “my first instinct is always to fight on”, she’d had a great day with her family on Sunday and reflected on her future. “Family is really important to me,” she said.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Queensland win reinforced the accepted wisdom that this crisis favours incumbents – provided people think they are doing the right thing.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1490762020-11-01T06:06:26Z2020-11-01T06:06:26Z‘Three-peat Palaszczuk’: why Queenslanders swung behind Labor in historic election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366842/original/file-20201101-23-opsb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=243%2C0%2C4600%2C3103&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland’s state election was always going to deliver an outcome for the record books.</p>
<p>This was Australia’s first poll at state or federal level contested by <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-making-election-history-with-two-women-leaders-so-why-is-the-campaign-focused-on-men-148261">two female leaders</a>. It was also the first state general election conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Labor wins Queensland election, as Greens could win up to four seats</a>
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<p>Counting continues after <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/a-record-first-day-of-voting-sees-more-than-15-000-ballots-cast-per-hour-20201019-p566ky.html">record numbers of pre-poll</a> and postal votes, and a handful of seats remain in doubt. Regardless, the Labor government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">been returned</a> with what looks like an increased majority in a <a href="https://inqld.com.au/decision-2020/2020/10/31/palaszczuk-looks-headed-for-third-term-as-early-count-favours-government/">history-making third term</a> for Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.</p>
<p>This shores up her political stocks in the continued battle with federal and state governments over border closures. </p>
<h2>A tick of approval for Palaszczuk</h2>
<p>The election campaign was <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-queensland-campaign-passes-the-halfway-mark-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose-148267">run of the mill</a> in many ways. It wasn’t so much dominated by the pandemic as framed by aspects of it, such as <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-queensland-border-reopening-with-nsw-decision-expected-friday-ahead-of-state-election/20fb3b1a-463e-4442-999e-26aa82db5da1">borders</a> and plans for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-09/qld-gov-$1-billion-boost-education-state-election-campaign-2020/12732656">economic recovery</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk waving, claiming victory" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is back for a third term.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>But Queenslanders, by and large, appear to have given Palaszczuk’s government a tick of approval for its health and economic responses to coronavirus. Swings <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results?filter=all&sort=az">to the government</a> were recorded in most parts of the state, with some surprising shifts towards Labor in areas like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Sunshine Coast</a>.</p>
<p>The result <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-this-queensland-election-is-different-states-are-back-at-the-forefront-of-political-attention-148260">reinforces the theory</a> pandemic conditions favour incumbents and, similarly, the major parties. Western Australia’s Mark McGowan, who like Palaszczuk was a target of Coalition criticism over closed borders, will take heart ahead of a state election early next year.</p>
<p>However, this was not a straightforward repeat of recent election outcomes in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/nt-election-how-the-seats-fell-and-what-happens-now/12590840">Northern Territory</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-scores-its-sixth-act-election-victory-in-a-row-but-the-big-winners-are-the-greens-148259">ACT</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">New Zealand</a>. Rather, this election panned out in ways particular to Queensland’s regional diversity, but still with ramifications for outside the state.</p>
<h2>One Nation, Palmer barely register</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/qld-election-2020-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-flies-into-key-battleground-in-states-north/news-story/ffb92db7a47f1ba9eac93e18d4695675">expected battleground</a> over government-held marginal seats around Townsville and Cairns didn’t eventuate, with these seats holding firm against a concerted effort to get rid of Labor incumbents.</p>
<p>The LNP opposition’s pitch for a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-21/qld-election-2020-lnp-townsville-youth-curfew-crime-plan/12789276">crime crackdown</a>” in the state’s north and plans for a youth curfew didn’t resonate, as at the last state election in 2017. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-lnp-wants-a-curfew-for-kids-but-evidence-suggests-this-wont-reduce-crime-148529">Queensland's LNP wants a curfew for kids, but evidence suggests this won't reduce crime</a>
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<p>The headline story of the election was a dramatic collapse in the <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/queesland-election-2020-one-nation-and-clive-palmer-united-party-primary-votes-collapse/a17782e7-0303-4713-bf2e-a30fc47d46f6">One Nation vote</a>. The party nominated an unprecedented <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-24/who-will-make-up-queenslands-potentially-powerful-crossbench/12804898">90 candidates</a>, yet leader Pauline Hanson was <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/qld-election-please-explain-where-pauline-hanson-is/news-story/b499312b0043496c1de365b76b31977d">barely sighted</a> during the campaign. What messages did emerge from Hanson’s camp — largely criticisms of COVID-19 measures — didn’t wash with an electorate seeking leadership and protection through the crisis.</p>
<p>Notably, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party hardly registered, with <a href="https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/state2020">about 0.6%</a> of the popular vote. This follows another big spend on often <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/28/clive-palmer-pumps-46m-into-his-spoiler-political-party-ahead-of-queensland-election">misleading advertising</a>. The electorate may have woken up to Palmer’s “spoiler” agenda, with his investment perhaps only resulting in a push for stricter truth in political advertising rules. </p>
<p>There are now realistic doubts over the ability of either Palmer or Hanson to recover electorally from these setbacks. For its efforts, One Nation did hold on to its sole seat in north Queensland. Katter’s Australian Party, likewise, retained its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results/party-totals">three northern seats</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Clive Palmer walks away from a press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party failed to pick up a single seat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The single biggest upset result — although widely expected —– came in South Brisbane, where Labor’s former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-31/qld-state-election-2020-jackie-trad-defeated-south-brisbane-seat/12832690">lost the seat</a> she’s held since 2012. A rise in Greens support in inner-Brisbane suburbs, as seen in other capital cities, was long viewed as a threat to Trad’s grip on the former Labor stronghold.</p>
<p>This result shows there are subtexts to this election result, and it is not all about the pandemic. For 30 years, Labor has often won state elections on its ability to hold onto “<a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/lnp-fails-to-crack-fortress-brisbane-20090322-geaxgn.html">fortress Brisbane</a>”. However, the party can’t take that position for granted now.</p>
<p>Even with the LNP’s continuing inability to bridge the Brisbane bulkhead, Labor can’t rest on its laurels after this win. Inner-Brisbane electorates like <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/coop">Cooper</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/mcco">McConnel</a> will be next targets for the Greens, whose support at this election was concentrated in the capital where they now hold two seats.</p>
<h2>On track to beat Beattie</h2>
<p>Palaszczuk is now the most successful female leader in Australian history, as the first to win three elections. If she serves the full four-year term, she’ll be Labor’s second-longest serving premier in this state, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/qld-state-election-labor-wins-annastacia-palaszczuk-elected/12834982">surpassing Peter Beattie</a>. Labor by then will have governed Queensland for 30 of the past 35 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-this-queensland-election-is-different-states-are-back-at-the-forefront-of-political-attention-148260">Why this Queensland election is different — states are back at the forefront of political attention</a>
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<p>This win cements the premier’s authority in her party, which is particularly important when it <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/not-something-to-boast-of-scott-morrison-criticises-annastacia-palaszczuk-over-queensland-border-closures">comes to relations</a> between her administration and the federal government. Discussions over states border closures and other pandemic responses at the National Cabinet will be watched with renewed interest.</p>
<p>At the same time, the election result raises pressing questions for defeated Opposition Leader <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6206034337001">Deb Frecklington</a> and the LNP. After recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-15/deb-frecklington-facing-qld-lnp-leadership-fight-amid-civil-war/12353990">inner-party turmoil</a> agitating against Frecklington’s leadership, it’s expected there will be jostling for new party leadership.</p>
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<img alt="Queensland LNP leader Deb Frecklington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Deb Frecklington has signalled she wants to stay on as LNP leader, but may not get that chance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Hunt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As now seems <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nationals-need-its-own-voice-canavan/news-story/4ea7e1b7ef4192e6f07b141eb58b842a">ritual after state elections</a>, calls are expected for the unsuccessful LNP to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajph.12636">de-merge</a>. The often uneasy marriage of Queensland’s Liberals and Nationals — apparently at risk of a lurch to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/06/christian-soldiers-and-climate-deniers-inside-the-fight-for-control-of-the-queensland-lnp">arch-conservative right</a> — appears incapable of broadening its support in both the state’s capital and the far north simultaneously.</p>
<p>As the final results come in, they will continue to provide important lessons for both the federal Coalition, as well as federal Labor, in how best to appeal to Queensland’s varied constituency.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Queensland’s result reinforces the theory that pandemic conditions favour incumbents. It also deals a blow for One Nation and Clive Palmer.Chris Salisbury, Research Assistant, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1487152020-10-31T12:27:59Z2020-10-31T12:27:59ZLabor wins Queensland election, as Greens could win up to four seats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366820/original/file-20201031-21-1m6naum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Darren England</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 48% of enrolled voters counted in Saturday’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results?filter=all&sort=az">Queensland election</a>, the ABC is giving Labor 47 of the 93 seats (a bare majority), the LNP 33, all Others seven and six seats remain in doubt.</p>
<p>Statewide <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results/party-totals">vote shares</a> are currently 39.6% Labor (up 5.3% since the 2017 election), 35.2% LNP (up 1.2%), 9.7% Greens (up 0.1%), 7.8% One Nation (down 6.7%) and 2.3% Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) (down 0.1%). Other seats are three KAP, two Greens, one One Nation and one independent.</p>
<p>There are many more votes still to be counted from pre-polls and postal votes. It is clear the LNP has no viable path to a majority (47 seats). Labor is likely to win a small majority, as occurred in 2017. They have gained Pumicestone and Caloundra from the LNP, and all <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az">current doubtful</a> LNP vs Labor contests are LNP-held.</p>
<p>The Greens have retained Maiwar and defeated Labor’s Jackie Trad in South Brisbane. They are third, just behind the LNP in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/coop">Cooper</a>, and in a close third in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/mcco">McConnel</a>. The LNP <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-05/qld-state-election-lnp-preference-labor-last-greens-boost/12732654">recommended its voters</a> preference against Labor in all seats. If the LNP finishes third in Cooper and McConnel, the Greens are likely to win on LNP preferences.</p>
<p>Labor had been <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-maintains-newspoll-lead-federally-and-in-queensland-bidens-lead-over-trump-narrows-144193">behind in Queensland</a> polls until early October, when a <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-increases-lead-after-debate-and-trumps-coronavirus-labor-gains-queensland-lead-147457">YouGov poll</a> gave them a 52-48 lead. The swing back to Labor was likely attributable to the state’s handling of coronavirus, with Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk recording strong personal ratings.</p>
<p>The final <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/30/newspoll-51-5-48-5-to-labor-in-queensland/">Newspoll</a> gave Labor 37%, the LNP 36%, the Greens 11% and One Nation 10%. Currently, this is understating Labor’s advantage over the LNP, but Newspoll will be relieved it did not have a Queensland failure like at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/newspoll-probably-wrong-since-morrison-became-pm-polling-has-been-less-accurate-at-recent-elections-117400">2019 federal election</a>.</p>
<p>At federal level, state election victories tend to assist the opposite party. So the federal Coalition is likely to do a little better in Queensland at the next federal election than it would had the LNP won this election.</p>
<h2>Ipsos state polls: NSW and Victoria</h2>
<p>Ipsos last week conducted polls of NSW and Victoria for Nine newspapers, each with samples of about 860. The Victorian poll was taken before Premier Daniel Andrews announced the state would reopen on Monday. Figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/27/ipsos-state-polling-and-groom-preselection/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>In NSW, Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian had a 64-16 approval rating, while Opposition Leader Jodi McKay was at 25% disapprove, 22% approve. Berejiklian led McKay by 58-19 as better premier. Nationals leader John Barilaro was at 35% disapprove, 18% approve. Berejiklian’s personal relationship with Daryl Maguire has had no negative impact for her.</p>
<p>In Victoria, Andrews had a 52-33 approval rating, while Opposition Leader Michael O'Brien was at a dismal 39% disapprove, 15% approve. Andrews led as better premier by 53-18. By 49-40, voters were satisfied with the state government’s handling of coronavirus, but they were dissatisfied by 44-16 with the opposition. The chief health officer, Brett Sutton, had a 57-20 approval rating.</p>
<h2>Greens won six of 25 seats at ACT election</h2>
<p>At the October 17 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act/2020/results/party-totals">ACT election</a>, Labor won ten of the 25 seats (down two since the 2016 election), the Liberals nine (down two) and the Greens six (up four). Vote shares were 37.8% Labor (down 0.6%), 33.8% Liberal (down 2.9%) and 13.5% Greens (up 3.2%).</p>
<p>The ACT uses the Hare-Clark system with five five-member electorates. The Greens won two seats in Kurrajong after overtaking the Liberals’ primary vote lead, and one seat in each of the other electorates. Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/10/act-2020-final-results-review-how-did.html">Kevin Bonham</a> has more details of how the Greens won 24% of the seats on 13.5% of the vote.</p>
<h2>US election update</h2>
<p>The US election results will come through next Wednesday from 10am AEDT. You can read my wrap of when polls close in the key states and results are expected for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/29/us-election-minus-six-days/">The Poll Bludger</a>. A key early results state is Florida; most polls close at 11am AEDT, but the very right-wing Panhandle closes an hour later.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/">FiveThirtyEight</a> national poll aggregate, Joe Biden continues to lead Donald Trump by 8.8% (52.1% to 43.2%). Biden leads by 8.8% in Michigan, 8.6% in Wisconsin, 5.2% in Pennsylvania, 3.2% in Arizona and 2.2% in Florida.</p>
<p>The Pennsylvania figure gives Trump some hope. Pennsylvania is currently the “tipping-point” state that could potentially give either Trump or Biden the magic 270 Electoral Votes needed to win. It is currently almost four points better for Trump than the national polls.</p>
<p>Owing to the potential for a popular vote/Electoral College split, the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight forecast</a> gives Trump a 10% chance to win the Electoral College, but just a 3% chance to win the popular vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Annastasia Palaszczuk’s Labor Party has been returned to government for a third term, likely with a small majority.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489932020-10-30T05:56:26Z2020-10-30T05:56:26ZLabor politicians need not fear: Queenslanders are no more attached to coal than the rest of Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366597/original/file-20201030-14-egcve5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C262%2C1431%2C814&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s written into electoral folklore that Labor was wiped out at the 2019 federal election because Queensland didn’t like its position on coal. As the story goes, Labor’s lukewarm support for the Adani coal mine and its ambitious climate policies antagonised Queensland’s mining communities and cemented another Coalition term. </p>
<p>But our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23251042.2020.1810376?scroll=top&needAccess=true">recent research</a> casts doubt on this conventional wisdom. Our findings challenge claims that the issue of new coal mines in Queensland was largely to blame for Labor’s election loss.</p>
<p>We examined how support for coal mines was linked to voting at the last federal election. We found Queensland voters supported new coal mines, and this was definitely a factor in the federal election. But the influence of coal mines as an election issue in Queensland was similar to that in most other mainland states.</p>
<p>Queenslanders head to the polls tomorrow to decide the state election. Throughout the campaign, the Palaszczuk Labor government has vocally backed expansion of the resources industry – but our research suggests the issue will not necessarily decide the election result.</p>
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<img alt="Annastacia Palaszczuk being heckled" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366630/original/file-20201030-14-1etqezn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366630/original/file-20201030-14-1etqezn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366630/original/file-20201030-14-1etqezn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366630/original/file-20201030-14-1etqezn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366630/original/file-20201030-14-1etqezn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366630/original/file-20201030-14-1etqezn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366630/original/file-20201030-14-1etqezn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk has strongly backed the Queensland resources industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Darren England</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A shock loss</h2>
<p>After Labor lost the election in May 2019, many analysts and commentators – not to mention the party itself – were left scratching their heads. Labor had been thumped in what was billed as the climate change election, despite its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/climate-change-federal-election-morrison-shorten-policies-votes/11084580?nw=0">policy</a> on cutting greenhouse gas pollution being far more ambitious than the Coalition’s.</p>
<p>Labor had <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-divided-on-climate-policy-after-absolute-carnage-at-the-election-20190524-p51qxi.html">pledged</a> to cut Australia’s emissions by 45% between 2005 and 2030. It wanted renewable energy to form half the electricity mix by 2030 and would have implemented an emissions trading-type scheme to limit pollution from industry.</p>
<p>During the campaign, Labor was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/24/labors-fence-sitting-on-adani-has-become-a-double-backflip">accused of</a> fence-sitting on the Adani coal mine. Leader Bill Shorten had stopped short of saying it shouldn’t proceed, instead insisting it should stack up environmentally and financially, and should not receive Commonwealth funding.</p>
<p>On election night, Labor received an electoral walloping in Queensland, and its messaging on coal and climate was widely blamed.</p>
<hr>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-79-of-aussies-care-about-climate-change-so-why-doesnt-the-government-listen-148726">New polling shows 79% of Aussies care about climate change. So why doesn't the government listen?</a>
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<p>Several <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/one-word-that-sums-up-labors-election-disaster-in-queensland/news-story/79f0adfb76eea5a0c0210d038f66b2ca">commentators</a>, and even Coalition MPs, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/election-result-sees-peter-dutton-win-dickson/11107396">said</a> the government owed its re-election to a convoy of anti-Adani protesters, led by former Greens leader Bob Brown, which travelled through Queensland and purportedly alienated voters.</p>
<p>While the Coalition strongly supported the construction of new coal mines, Labor struggled to articulate its position – wedged between its blue-collar base in regional areas, and urban voters concerned about the environment.</p>
<p>After the election, Labor frontbencher Joel Fitzgibbon <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/joel-fitzgibbon-says-he-warned-against-labor-s-coal-message-20190520-p51pa0.html">conceded</a> Labor’s positioning on the Adani mine overlooked the importance of investment and jobs, and left coal miners worried.</p>
<p>But does the empirical evidence support the view that Labor lost Queensland – and the election – over the issue of coal? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bill Shorten and wife Chloe Shorten" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366632/original/file-20201030-21-11kxq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366632/original/file-20201030-21-11kxq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366632/original/file-20201030-21-11kxq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366632/original/file-20201030-21-11kxq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366632/original/file-20201030-21-11kxq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366632/original/file-20201030-21-11kxq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366632/original/file-20201030-21-11kxq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bill Shorten’s election defeat was largely attributed to the Queensland coal issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crossling/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Our surprise findings</h2>
<p>To answer this questions, we examined data from a 2019 national survey, the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (<a href="https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataverse.xhtml?alias=CSES">CSES</a>). The data indicated 46% of Australians supported the construction of new coal mines, and 52% were against. </p>
<p>On average, people who favoured new coal mines tended to be Coalition supporters, less likely to have a tertiary education, more likely to be men than women and were older than average. In contrast, those who accept that human-driven climate change is occurring <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2019.1696853">tend to be</a> tertiary-educated Greens or Labor supporters. They are more likely to be women than men and are younger than average. </p>
<p>Support for new coal mines declined as interest in politics increased in NSW and Victoria. Yet in Queensland and (to a lesser extent) Western Australia, the pattern was very different. In these so-called “mining states”, support for new coal mines increased with political interest. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-this-queensland-election-is-different-states-are-back-at-the-forefront-of-political-attention-148260">Why this Queensland election is different — states are back at the forefront of political attention</a>
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<p>What’s more, as interest in politics increased among Labor identifiers, support for new coal mines decreased. However as political interest increased among Coalition identifiers, support for new mines increased. </p>
<p>These results suggest coal mines influenced voting behaviour in regional and remote areas of Queensland in the 2019 election. </p>
<p>However, our research also suggests the issue was no greater a factor for voters in Queensland than in other states. Those who supported new mines were more likely to vote for the Coalition than for Labor. But the association between new coal mines and voting was not stronger in Queensland than in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia or Western Australia. </p>
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<img alt="Coal mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366631/original/file-20201030-24-8wez3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366631/original/file-20201030-24-8wez3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366631/original/file-20201030-24-8wez3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366631/original/file-20201030-24-8wez3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366631/original/file-20201030-24-8wez3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366631/original/file-20201030-24-8wez3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366631/original/file-20201030-24-8wez3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Queenslanders support for new coal mines is not greater than anywhere else in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span>
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<h2>Labor should not abandon climate ambitions</h2>
<p>Just days after federal Labor’s 2019 electoral rout in Queensland, Palaszczuk swung into action. Obviously fearing for the electoral prospects of her own government, she <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-22/adani-approvals-removal-environment-department/11138140">ordered</a> state officials to give a “definitive timeframe” on approvals for the Adani mine within days.</p>
<p>The Queensland state election campaign has been dominated by the issues of economic recovery, job creation and infrastructure. Early in the campaign, the Palaszczuk government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-29/palaszczuk-government-approves-olive-downs-coal-mine-bowen-basin/12713298">signed off</a> on a new metallurgical coal mine in the Bowen Basin, further affirming its support for Queensland’s resources industry. Climate action, and the need to move away from coal, has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/14/queensland-transition-to-renewables-would-generate-almost-10000-jobs-analysis-shows">mentioned</a> in the campaign, but it’s not at the fore. </p>
<p>Federal Labor is still struggling to regroup after its election loss. It has not revealed the emissions reduction targets it will take to the next federal election, and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-backs-new-gas-fields-and-pipelines-in-bid-to-end-climate-fight-20201030-p56a28.html">reportedly</a> this month resolved to support the Morrison government in developing new gas reserves.</p>
<p>But at both a state and federal level, Labor should not hasten to back fossil fuels, nor should it abandon an ambitious climate policy agenda. The issue of new coal mines may not be a huge election decider in Queensland after all.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Tranter receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerrie Foxwell-Norton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queenslanders head to the polls tomorrow. The Palaszczuk Labor government has vocally backed the resources industry – but our research suggests the issue will not decide the election result.Bruce Tranter, Professor of Sociology, University of TasmaniaKerrie Foxwell-Norton, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1490862020-10-29T10:34:48Z2020-10-29T10:34:48ZGrattan on Friday: As Melbourne’s Christmas arrives early, Queensland’s election will test whether COVID is a vaccine for incumbents<p>Anticipating reactions to political attacks can be a tricky business.</p>
<p>When Scott Morrison spectacularly trashed the reputation of Australia Post CEO Christine Holgate over her now-notorious gift of Cartier watches to high-performing employees, he assumed “quiet Australians” would be outraged at the largesse in a government-owned business.</p>
<p>Whether they are will be tested in the focus groups. But the prime minister almost certainly didn’t anticipate Australia Post’s small-business stakeholders, as well as some top-end-of-town voices and conservative commentators, would come out so strongly for Holgate.</p>
<p>Many Post franchisees are furious over the attack – because the deal with three big banks for which the employees were rewarded propped up their businesses.</p>
<p>At the other end of the wealth spectrum Marcus Blackmore, major shareholder in the well-known health empire where Holgate was preciously chief executive, told The Australian the way she’d been treated was “bloody disgusting”. He added, as testament to her business ability, “Blackmores’ business has been dismal since Christine left”.</p>
<p>Morrison has also received a hiding from commentators such as News Corp’s Terry McCrann who labelled him an “outrageous misogynist”.</p>
<p>Assuming Morrison did not have some prior agenda against Holgate before the revelations about the watches at Senate estimates, he has put the government in a bind by acting on the spur of the moment. </p>
<p>He’s called an inquiry that will cost a deal more than the nearly $20,000 value of the Cartier gifts. On Thursday Holgate’s lawyer was weighing into the argument, which raises the spectre of a costly legal fight. </p>
<p>Regardless of the inquiry’s findings, Holgate’s position is near impossible. Presumably she will end up out of Australia Post, sparking a search for a new CEO just when the business is facing upheavals caused by COVID. In the unlikely event she remained, she’d be damaged and relations with the government beyond awkward.</p>
<p>On a very different front, the parliamentary motion moved by Labor this week to congratulate Victorians for overcoming the COVID second wave is also a notable case study in the vagaries of reaction.</p>
<p>By far the strongest speech in the brief debate was from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. A Victorian, he highlighted the costs of the lockdown and attacked the Andrews government, saying “it all comes back to the failures in hotel quarantine, for which we still do not have any answers”.</p>
<p>The speech won both high praise and deep condemnation. Critics variously saw it as an assault against Victorians, the wrong tone on a day of celebration, and a distasteful exercise in politicking.</p>
<p>The backlash revealed not just the sharp divisions over the Andrews government’s COVID handling, but also the intensity of feelings.</p>
<p>Only a misreading could portray Frydenberg’s speech as an attack on the people of the state. His first line was: “The Victorian people have been magnificent”; what he said subsequently did not undermine that sentiment.</p>
<p>Whether negatives should have been put aside on such a positive day is a matter of opinion, but there wasn’t anything confected about Frydenberg’s sentiments. He has been genuinely angry for months about the state government’s mistakes, highly cognisant of the economic damage but also concerned about the mental health implications (remember, his mother is a psychologist).</p>
<p>Where his speech was at fault was not in calling attention to the origin of the second wave, but in narrowing the blame for how it panned out.</p>
<p>The Andrews government – its quarantine bungle and its inadequate contact tracing – must absolutely wear blame. But the Morrison government must assume its share too. Most of the hundreds of deaths were in aged care, which comes under the federal government (intersecting with the state government, which is responsible for public health). The residential aged-care sector was simply not up to the task of protecting those living in it, as the royal commission has pointed out.</p>
<p>With Melbourne now entering (according to some retailers) an early Christmas mood as it comes out of lockdown, Andrews can expect to maintain for the immediate future the solid support he’s enjoyed, mistakes not withstanding.</p>
<p>But there are two major challenges ahead for him.</p>
<p>One is to ensure there is not another wave, which means the Victorian health system needs to be (finally) up to scratch. On Thursday NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian, talking about when she might open her border to Victorians, said it would take a couple of weeks to test the robustness of that system.</p>
<p>The other challenge is how Andrews responds when the inquiry into hotel quarantine reports, which surely must make very tough findings. The premier has pushed aside many questions, saying he wouldn’t pre-empt the investigation.</p>
<p>On Thursday the inquiry was extended. There will be an interim report on November 6 with recommendations for a proposed quarantine program.</p>
<p>But the findings on the botched hotel quarantine program will be delayed until the final report, now due December 21. That’s uncomfortably close to the holidays which, however, must not be used by the state government as political cover.</p>
<p>Facing an election on Saturday, Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Pałaszczuk has been claiming her opponents would have left her state vulnerable to a second wave like Victoria’s by opening the border.</p>
<p>The Queensland poll will be the first COVID electoral test for a state government (we’ve had territory elections).</p>
<p>Before COVID, the Pałaszczuk government appeared in considerable trouble. During the pandemic, its chances improved substantially, with the border closure very popular. Recently, Labor has become more nervous.</p>
<p>The Liberal National Party would have to win some nine seats in net terms for majority government. Labor would be pushed into minority government if it lost a net two seats.</p>
<p>Pałaszczuk, who’s been under attack from the federal government for months over her border, is using her record on COVID as a very large crutch. </p>
<p>Berejiklian this week said (unhelpfully for the LNP) that Queensland Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington “has been very open … that she would have opened to NSW, and I commend her for that position”.</p>
<p>But it is notable this isn’t Frecklington’s current public line. She is assuring voters she’d rely on the health advice in determining border policy.</p>
<p>Such is thought to be the political potency of COVID.</p>
<p>If Labor suffers a serious knock in Queensland, the result will be interpreted as the likely beginning of the end for COVID’s role as a protective vaccine for incumbents. If COVID is seen to have shielded Pałaszczuk, that will further embolden the states, which have become extremely assertive during the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149086/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anticipating reactions to political attacks can be a tricky business…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482612020-10-25T19:04:28Z2020-10-25T19:04:28ZQueensland is making election history with two women leaders, so why is the campaign focused on men?<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/remember-quexit-5-reasons-you-should-not-take-your-eyes-off-the-queensland-election-146926">Queensland election</a> is a history-making poll. For the first time in a state or federal election, two women are going head-to-head. </p>
<p>Does this mean gender equality issues are finally writ large across an election campaign? </p>
<p>Sadly, neither Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk, nor the Liberal National Party’s Deb Frecklington appear to be interested in highlighting the needs and perspectives of women ahead of election day on October 31. </p>
<h2>Women making political history in Queensland</h2>
<p>Labor goes into this election with a remarkably strong — and rare — record of female ministers in recent years. </p>
<p>In 2009, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2009/03/22/2522899.htm">Anna Bligh</a> became the first woman in Australia to win an election as premier. Six years later, Palaszczuk was the first woman to lead an opposition into government. </p>
<p>She also had the first female dominated-cabinet in Australian history - with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/16/the-palaszczuk-ministry-includes-a-majority-of-women-but-dont-expect-a-revolution">eight out of the 14</a> ministers being women in 2015. After the most recent reshuffle this year, <a href="https://cabinet.qld.gov.au/ministers.aspx">eight of Palaszczuk’s 18-member</a> cabinet were women. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-queensland-campaign-passes-the-halfway-mark-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose-148267">As the Queensland campaign passes the halfway mark, the election is still Labor's to lose</a>
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<p>For the Queensland LNP, Frecklington is making history as their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/12/queensland-liberal-national-party-deb-frecklington-tim-nicholls">first female leader</a>. But she is one of <a href="https://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/members/current/list/current-shadow-ministers">just five</a> women in the LNP’s 23-member shadow ministry.</p>
<p>Despite these achievements, the <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/women-lead-queensland-election-campaign-but-remain-firmly-in-the-minority-20201015-p565kq.html">proportion</a> of women running in the 2020 election isn’t substantially different to the past. Across all 597 candidates, only 219, or 37%, are women. This is up from 32% in the 2017 election. </p>
<p>So, overall, progress is is being made, but slowly. </p>
<h2>Hard hats and hi-vis</h2>
<p>And just because both leaders are women, this does not mean “women’s issues” or even a focus on female perspectives is featuring prominently in the campaign. On the contrary. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364676/original/file-20201021-13-17f38m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364676/original/file-20201021-13-17f38m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364676/original/file-20201021-13-17f38m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364676/original/file-20201021-13-17f38m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364676/original/file-20201021-13-17f38m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364676/original/file-20201021-13-17f38m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364676/original/file-20201021-13-17f38m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk campaigning at a sand supplier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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<p>COVID-19 has hurt women’s work more than men’s, leading to a so-called “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/pink-collar-recession-how-the-covid-19-crisis-is-eroding-womens-economic-power">pink recession</a>”. Women are more likely to be in part-time, casual or insecure work, and to work in industries most affected by lockdowns or economic downturn, such as retail and hospitality, tourism, human services, creative arts and universities.</p>
<p>Despite this, the leaders are making male-dominated industries the focus of their campaigns. </p>
<p>Both Palaszczuk and Frecklington have made frequent appearances in <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/too-much-focus-on-hard-hats-leaders-reveal-first-steps-out-of-recession-20201020-p566t6.html">hi-vis vests and hard hats</a>, talking up policies around <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/queensland-election-promises-lnp-billion-bridge-construction/12483870">infrastructure</a>, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/labor-promises-second-bruce-highway-to-move-freight-off-main-artery-20201021-p56740.html">roads</a> and <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/a-turning-point-lnp-vows-to-irrigate-drought-addled-western-qld-20201018-p5665l.html">other developments</a> to boost the state’s economy. </p>
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<img alt="LNP leader Deb Frecklington" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364675/original/file-20201021-17-1e0atfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364675/original/file-20201021-17-1e0atfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364675/original/file-20201021-17-1e0atfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364675/original/file-20201021-17-1e0atfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364675/original/file-20201021-17-1e0atfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364675/original/file-20201021-17-1e0atfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364675/original/file-20201021-17-1e0atfy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">LNP leader Deb Frecklington visiting a steel fabricator.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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<p>While hi-vis may be convenient shorthand for “jobs”, it’s lazy politics. And it doesn’t make sense in this particular election, given the extent to which <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/women-were-hit-hardest-by-coronavirus-job-losses-and-now-they-re-left-out-of-the-budget">women</a> have been affected by COVID-19. </p>
<h2>What gender issues are featuring in the campaign?</h2>
<p>There are some exceptions to the hard hat focus, however, and these are notable ones – even if they are not generating significant attention on the campaign trail. </p>
<p>The ALP has pledged <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/qld-labor-promises-free-pads-tampons-ahead-of-election/news-story/9776218dd9700c31af2a36bd52f74b77">free sanitary pads</a> and tampons for 120 schools “most in need”. This would make Queensland only the second state, after Victoria, to offer a program like this. </p>
<p>On Thursday, the LNP said it would spend A$70 million to improve <a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/lnp-delivers-more-and-cheaper-before-and-after-school-care-to-working-families/">before and after school care</a> and a further A$10 million to subsidise childcare training courses. </p>
<p>Both major parties are also taking significant domestic violence policies to the polls. </p>
<p>Following the murder of Brisbane woman <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/brisbane-car-fire-hannah-clarke-rowan-baxter-family-violence/11985024">Hannah Clarke</a> and her three children in February, the LNP announced a package including <a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/lnp-plan-to-combat-domestic-violence/">laws against coercive control</a> and emergency accommodation grants. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-ready-to-criminalise-coercive-control-heres-why-146929">Australia is not ready to criminalise coercive control — here's why</a>
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<p>Earlier this month, the Palaszczuk government also <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/141486-queensland-labor-becomes-latest-party-to-tackle-coercive-control/">pledged</a> to do more to tackle coercive control, including training programs for first responders and a community awareness campaign, although has stopped short of specifically promising new laws.</p>
<h2>Abortion law concerns</h2>
<p>In disturbing news for women’s advocates, Frecklington has also committed to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/17/why-queenslands-opposition-leader-wants-partys-anti-abortion-push-kept-out-of-election-sight">review</a> of the state’s abortion laws in her first term of government, with a focus on the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/queensland-election-euthanasia-debate-takes-centre-stage/news-story/60800532c805f35542f55a76acd6338d">gestational limit</a> for terminations. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-15/qld-election-analysis-anti-abortion-lobby-lnp-policy/12763174">anti-abortion lobby are backing the LNP</a> and Moggill LNP candidate Christian Rowan has reportedly given assurances to Christian groups about repealing hard-won <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/17/queensland-parliament-votes-to-legalise-abortion">abortion laws</a>.</p>
<p>While it seems Frecklington is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/17/why-queenslands-opposition-leader-wants-partys-anti-abortion-push-kept-out-of-election-sight">attempting to distance</a> herself from the debate — saying it is not a “priority” — it is a worrying proposal for women specifically and the state more generally. </p>
<h2>Are the leaders feminists?</h2>
<p>Gender issues also got some attention in the second week of the campaign, after the leaders were questioned about their views on feminism. It wasn’t exactly a Helen Reddy “hear me roar” moment.</p>
<p>Asked whether she would describe herself as a feminist, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/women-lead-queensland-election-campaign-but-remain-firmly-in-the-minority-20201015-p565kq.html">Palaszczuk said</a>, “if a feminist is about believing in equality, absolutely”.</p>
<p>Frecklington was even more noncommittal. </p>
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<p>I identify as a female who wants to get Queensland working again.</p>
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<h2>Undermined from within</h2>
<p>In Australian politics, we are used to women politicians being undermined by the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361146.2017.1374347?src=recsys">media</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/12/gillard-menu-sexist-liberal-dinner">opposition</a> and even their <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-political-tragedy-of-julia-gillard-15588">own parties</a>. </p>
<p>During this campaign, we have seen little media undermining on gender, perhaps because both leaders are women and their gender is not seen as a point of difference.</p>
<p>But we have seen further demonstration of female leaders being attacked from within. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fundraising-questions-have-interrupted-the-queensland-lnps-election-campaign-what-does-the-law-say-147992">Fundraising questions have interrupted the Queensland LNP's election campaign. What does the law say?</a>
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<p>In the early stages of the campaign, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/lnp-crisis-as-deb-frecklington-referred-to-election-watchdog/12748400">ABC reported</a> Frecklington had been referred to the Electoral Commission of Queensland by her own party over fundraising concerns. The LNP denies this, and Frecklington denies any wrongdoing. </p>
<p>The episode has not dominated the campaign since it was reported in mid-October. But it will only serve to make her leadership more precarious, should the LNP lose on October 31. </p>
<p>Not that it was particularly secure to begin with. This follows <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-15/deb-frecklington-facing-qld-lnp-leadership-fight-amid-civil-war/12353990">intense speculation</a> about a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-15/lnp-support-deb-frecklington-queensland-politics/12357090">leadership spill</a> ahead of the election campaign. </p>
<h2>So far, women appear to back the ALP</h2>
<p>In the meantime, the major parties need women’s votes to win. The latest <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8548-roy-morgan-queensland-election-voting-intention-nsw-border-october-2020-202010201001">Roy Morgan Poll</a> for Queensland shows the key to the ALP’s slim lead in week three of the campaign comes via its support from women. </p>
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<img alt="Woman wearing a mask, lining up to vote." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364678/original/file-20201021-23-1p30qtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364678/original/file-20201021-23-1p30qtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364678/original/file-20201021-23-1p30qtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364678/original/file-20201021-23-1p30qtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364678/original/file-20201021-23-1p30qtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364678/original/file-20201021-23-1p30qtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364678/original/file-20201021-23-1p30qtk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Women may be the deciding factor in the state election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Women favour the ALP 53.5% over LNP 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis, while men more narrowly favour the LNP 51.5% to 48.5% (overall, the ALP has its nose in front, 51% to 49%). </p>
<p>Women’s perspectives may not be dominating the campaign but they may be being crucial when it comes to the result.</p>
<p>Regardless of the election outcome, we can be sure that without either leader stepping up more strongly for women — and being supported by their parties to do so — this election will also be a historic lost opportunity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the International Women's Development Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elise Stephenson is affiliated with the Queensland State Government LGBTI Roundtable.</span></em></p>Neither Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk, nor the Liberal National Party’s Deb Frecklington appear to be interested in highlighting the needs and perspectives of women ahead of October 31.Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityElise Stephenson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484402020-10-20T05:52:23Z2020-10-20T05:52:23ZView from The Hill: Morrison says he wants to run full term, and there are good reasons to believe him<p>We don’t have to credit Scott Morrison’s claim at Tuesday’s Coalition joint party room meeting that an election is the furthest thing from his mind, but we can take at face value his indication he wants to run full term.</p>
<p>Politics and the electoral implications of what he does are never out of Morrison’s thinking. But on the question of election timing, he didn’t have to be as categorical in his remarks, and what he said makes sense.</p>
<p>“I’m a full-termer, elections are too hard to win. I cherish every day - we’ll do it for the time we said we would,” he told his troops.</p>
<p>It’s always possible he flips his position (or is dissembling). But, as things stand, he probably means what he says because there are strong arguments for having the election when it’s due, in early 2022, rather than prematurely.</p>
<p>In recent weeks many in the media have been saying, publicly and privately, that we will likely have a late 2021 election.</p>
<p>But it’s clear from the polls and other evidence that the public don’t want to see too much political fractiousness now – and that might still be the position in a year’s time. One reason Labor is having so much trouble cutting through at the moment is that its attacks (inevitably) reintroduce partisanship.</p>
<p>Currently, it’s a period for incumbent leaders, even those under fire, as this week’s <a href="https://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport">Essential poll</a> again underlines. Despite Victoria’s slow emergence from lockdown, and the multiple problems of Dan Andrews’ government, 54% of Victorians approve of the job Andrews is doing as premier.</p>
<p>The Queensland election on October 31 will be a tangible test of the benefit of incumbency during COVID, but it’s accepted that the pandemic has put premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in a better position than she would have been in without it.</p>
<p>Even in ordinary times, people don’t like early elections. And, as Morrison says, he does “cherish every day” of power. An election late next year would mean most of 2021 would be in campaign mode, reducing what he could achieve.</p>
<p>Labor is apprehensive that the election might be held next year – in theory, a later date should advantage it. In practice, that wouldn’t necessarily be the case.</p>
<p>Elections are (with obvious qualifications) two-horse races and Labor faces an uphill task to present a convincing alternative whenever the poll is held.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese is coming across as a trier, and his post budget pitch highlighting child care chose an issue of strong concern to many families. But colleagues continue to worry he and the opposition are not making an impact.</p>
<p>Switching leaders would be difficult and traumatic for Labor and not necessarily put it in a better position (and could burn a successor to no purpose).</p>
<p>Hard as it would be for Labor to accept, it may be a case of the COVID times simply not suiting it.</p>
<p>Having said that, we also know how quickly things can change in politics.</p>
<p>Morrison’s fate will rest on whether he has managed to get the country, and in particular its economy, convincingly on the road to “normality”. A 2022 election gives him more time to do that.</p>
<p>We don’t yet have any idea how 2021 will play out. It could be a rough year, easier to handle without the distraction of an election. And, who knows, by early 2022, we might even have people vaccinated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148440/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We don’t yet have any idea how 2021 will play out. It could be a rough year, easier to handle without the distraction of an election.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482672020-10-20T04:09:38Z2020-10-20T04:09:38ZAs the Queensland campaign passes the halfway mark, the election is still Labor’s to lose<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364379/original/file-20201020-15-1vqmh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Hunt/ AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We’re at the mid-point of the Queensland election campaign. </p>
<p>Pre-polling opened on Monday, with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-19/qld-state-election-how-early-postal-votes-change-face-campaign/12770298">about two million</a> Queenslanders expected to vote before election day on October 31. </p>
<p>But with just 12 days to go, despite the Liberal-National Party (LNP) opposition <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-08/qld-state-election-2020-lnp-cant-afford-more-policy-stumbles/12732658">stumbling</a> a little more often than the Labor government, neither side has emerged as a clear front-runner. However, the ALP has its nose in front. </p>
<h2>Pandemic conditions favour incumbents</h2>
<p>Unusually, for a state that produced the likes of Bob Katter, Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer, the campaign’s first two weeks have been notable only for a low-energy blandness. COVID-19 conditions and too few federal leaders appearing on the hustings have only added to a quiet air of sober austerity.</p>
<p>Fortunately for the Palaszczuk government, flavourless campaigns very often play into the hands of incumbents. </p>
<p>For example, the March 2020 election for the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc-election-2020/">Brisbane City Council</a> saw LNP Lord Mayor <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/queensland-local-government-mayoral-results/12097924">Adrian Schrinner</a> easily re-elected after a colourless campaign, despite early pandemic fears.</p>
<p>Indeed, it appears the pandemic has been a boon for incumbents everywhere. Between August and last weekend, Labor/Labour governments have been easily re-elected in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-election-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-the-answer-to-a-struggling-economy-144274">Northern Territory</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-scores-its-sixth-act-election-victory-in-a-row-but-the-big-winners-are-the-greens-148259">Australian Capital Territory</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-the-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">New Zealand</a>. </p>
<p>Voters, at least for now, appear to view leaders, parties and issues through a unique COVID-19 lens, and give governments free passes on such traditional vote-killers as debt, deficit and unemployment. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election</a>
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<p>Put simply, opposition parties are getting little traction when making the case for change. This phenomenon will not have escaped the attention of federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese.</p>
<h2>Newspoll puts Labor ahead</h2>
<p>The Queensland opposition’s own lack of traction was confirmed in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labo-u-r-easily-wins-in-both-new-zealand-and-the-act-and-leads-in-queensland-147985">weekend Newspoll</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="LNP leader Deb Frecklington at a press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364380/original/file-20201020-15-e405w8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364380/original/file-20201020-15-e405w8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364380/original/file-20201020-15-e405w8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364380/original/file-20201020-15-e405w8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364380/original/file-20201020-15-e405w8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364380/original/file-20201020-15-e405w8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364380/original/file-20201020-15-e405w8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Liberal National Party is trailing Labor, according to the latest Newspoll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cameron Laird/ AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Currently, Labor and the LNP are evenly pegged in their primary vote at 37%, with Labor enjoying a narrow lead, after preferences, of 52 to 48%. That’s a swing to Labor of about one percentage point since the 2017 state election. If uniform, that swing could see Labor seize three additional LNP seats. </p>
<p>Newspoll also revealed a slightly higher Greens vote, with One Nation’s vote down by about five points since 2017. </p>
<h2>Role reversal</h2>
<p>That lack of appetite for change has seen something of a role reversal between the major parties. </p>
<p>Where the LNP is spruiking a “vision” via costly infrastructure projects — a $15 billion “<a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/a-turning-point-lnp-vows-to-irrigate-drought-addled-western-qld-20201018-p5665l.html">New Bradfield</a>” irrigation scheme and a $33 billion <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-27/lnp-promises-33-billion-spend-on-15-year-bruce-highway-plan/12708342">Bruce Highway upgrade</a> — Labor is painting itself as the party of steady growth and <a href="https://inqld.com.au/decision-2020/2020/10/06/palaszczuk-time-to-keep-people-safe-and-in-work/">public safety</a> amid the greatest health crisis in a century. </p>
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<p>Even so, the campaign is firmly aligned with the traditional pillars of Queensland political culture. In the words of political scientist <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/data/UQ_189638/JQ4711_H83_1980.pdf?Expires=1603147126&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJKNBJ4MJBJNC6NLQ&Signature=EUq6ZOZXR69r1ABgBAPA7fMI2S7dW7V5xEK6Qi3h9%7EfU61uQ71qNeGGE-cmQbGtMiQdENEq6TsFHsjcBEwfgQdyM53JTkRFKQK5WecIKspOwI-ZNk75MBWJ8JEAwWEKoElQp8lLOsFxrAl7ANCktqeN5%7ENYxjCWpKK1APe9ERcPxucE1tb7MIVEJqYyuBQKNh7FIDBL-hn4877pavtJthXJhMfoCvyNZoF3HiYWrcZIDr2jrrPdjakMqRYpt9hgsIJ07DKT5tDokShOakDVTVJD%7EVMsfj783JDHv6wQjD493XeTmrs5uYoeEd1mD%7Ej8u5fN4xPCDc4hqbdffPYuYeg__">Colin Hughes</a>, this means it is about “things and places rather than people and ideas”. </p>
<p>It’s therefore hardly surprising that jobs, infrastructure, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/27/and-embellishment-the-myth-fuelling-queensland-election-debate">crime</a> and frontline public service delivery <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-18/qld-state-election-2020-palaszcuk-frecklington-campaign-launch/12770290">are dominating</a>.</p>
<p>But a theme of political stability also emerged during the first week. After eight decades of majority government, since the mid-1990s, Queensland has seen three <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">hung parliaments</a>.</p>
<p>Both Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and LNP leader Deb Frecklington warned of instability being brought about by a vote for minor parties, then pledged “<a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/palaszczuk-braces-for-nasty-campaign-both-leaders-rule-out-minor-party-deals-20201005-p5623h.html">no deals</a>” with crossbench members. Few believed either leader. </p>
<h2>Integrity issues distract second week</h2>
<p>The campaign’s second week turned to integrity when the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/lnp-crisis-as-deb-frecklington-referred-to-election-watchdog/12748400">ABC reported </a> Frecklington had been referred by her own party to the Electoral Commission of Queensland after attending a dinner in August hosted by a property developer. </p>
<p>Under 2018 legislation, political donations from property developers are illegal.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fundraising-questions-have-interrupted-the-queensland-lnps-election-campaign-what-does-the-law-say-147992">Fundraising questions have interrupted the Queensland LNP's election campaign. What does the law say?</a>
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<p>Frecklington denied any wrongdoing. The LNP also denied reporting Frecklington, noting it “regularly communicates with the ECQ to ensure that [they] comply with the act.” </p>
<p>This came as the state’s Crime and Misconduct Commission (CCC) took the unprecedented step of writing to every candidate with a stark warning,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] the lines between government and the private sector are blurring, with overlapping networks of association involving consultants, influencers, lobbyists and executives.</p>
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<p>Labor briefly <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6200032384001">played up</a> integrity questions last week, but the Frecklington story soon faded. </p>
<p>Even so, the issue robbed the opposition of a valuable campaign oxygen and made Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s (probably only) visit to Queensland something of a <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/10/14/scott-morrison-queensland-election/">non-event</a>. </p>
<h2>Economic issues still dominate</h2>
<p>Indeed, the fact that Morrison’s intervention caused few local ripples underscores the fact this campaign is very clearly about Queensland affairs. </p>
<p>That’s why Palaszczuk and Frecklington spent about half of their first two weeks in the regions, where economic pain is so often felt hardest. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="LNP leader Deb Frecklington elbow bumps Prime Minister Scott Morrison." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364382/original/file-20201020-21-5e3gdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364382/original/file-20201020-21-5e3gdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364382/original/file-20201020-21-5e3gdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364382/original/file-20201020-21-5e3gdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364382/original/file-20201020-21-5e3gdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364382/original/file-20201020-21-5e3gdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364382/original/file-20201020-21-5e3gdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison visited Queensland last week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cameron Laird/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s also why the LNP is pledging an <a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/queensland-unemployment-worst-in-nation-2/">unemployment rate of 5%</a> (down from the <a href="https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/issues/3416/labour-force-202009.pdf">current 7.7%</a>) and why Labor talked up its enthusiasm for coal mining via the approval of a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-29/palaszczuk-government-approves-olive-downs-coal-mine-bowen-basin/12713298">$1 billion Olive Downs</a> mine near Mackay. </p>
<p>Moreover, while Treasurer Cameron Dick insists Queensland must “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-09/qld-gov-$1-billion-boost-education-state-election-campaign-2020/12732656">borrow to build</a>”, the LNP promises it could balance the budget by by 2024 without <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-08/qld-state-election-2020-lnp-cant-afford-more-policy-stumbles/12732658">new taxes</a>, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/parties-pledge-no-public-assets-will-be-sold-to-fund-election-promises-20201014-p5656i.html">asset sales</a> or <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6216939/lnp-govt-would-spend-less-frecklington/">forced redundancies</a>. </p>
<p>Last week, Labor jumped on Frecklington’s refusal to rule out “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-08/qld-state-election-2020-lnp-cant-afford-more-policy-stumbles/12732658">natural attrition</a>” in the public service as a cost-saving measure — drawing comparisons with former LNP Premier Campbell Newman’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/07/campbell-newman-as-jobs-bogeyman">unpopular cuts</a>. This is despite Labor’s own public service <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-09/budget-finances-queensland-coronavirus-update/12430204">hiring freeze</a> sounding remarkably similar. </p>
<h2>Campaigns already ‘launched’</h2>
<p>In a campaign already marred by <a href="https://www.thechronicle.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TCWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thechronicle.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fstate-election-2020%2Fhundreds-of-election-signs-stolen-vandalised-across-toowoomba%2Fnews-story%2Ff3c40a933b8b381272aef6cfacf343c0&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium">vandalised corflutes</a> and <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/politics-gets-dirty-in-south-brisbane-in-week-one-as-greens-taunt-alp-20201008-p563e5.html">nasty tweets</a>, the LNP has pledged to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-05/qld-state-election-lnp-preference-labor-last-greens-boost/12732654">put Labor last</a> on how-to-vote cards. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364384/original/file-20201020-17-1qpz32f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364384/original/file-20201020-17-1qpz32f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364384/original/file-20201020-17-1qpz32f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364384/original/file-20201020-17-1qpz32f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364384/original/file-20201020-17-1qpz32f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364384/original/file-20201020-17-1qpz32f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364384/original/file-20201020-17-1qpz32f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor and the LNP both had their campaign launches over the weekend.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Hunt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s a curious strategy that will have an effect only in a small number of seats where the LNP finishes third behind Labor and a minor party or independent. Later, the LNP said it would put the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/lnp-to-preference-informed-medical-opinions-party-last-on-howtovote-cards/news-story/49da2f5446d3e4e9865e00d5c479d0cb">Informed Medical Options Party</a> — an anti-fluoridation, anti-“forced” vaccinations group — last in the 31 seats the IMOP is contesting.</p>
<p>Will pre-poll voting beginning this week, up to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-19/qld-state-election-2020-early-polling-opens-lnp-costings/12781340">70% of electors</a> could vote before October 31, when postal votes are also considered. This pressure to “front-end” their campaigns saw the major parties bring forward their <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-18/qld-state-election-2020-palaszcuk-frecklington-campaign-launch/12770290">campaign launches</a> to Sunday, October 18. </p>
<p>Few surprises were offered, although Labor’s long-pledged <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/19/queensland-election-labor-pledges-to-allow-vote-on-voluntary-assisted-dying">euthanasia legislation</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-18/qld-state-election-2020-palaszcuk-frecklington-campaign-launch/12770290">free TAFE</a> for students under 25 years have generated headlines. The LNP’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-11/qld-state-election-2020-health-jobs-and-car-registration-pledge/12721592">$300 car registration rebate</a> and plans for <a href="https://inqld.com.au/decision-2020/2020/10/07/lnp-in-493-million-power-play-to-cut-business-electricity-costs/">cheaper electricity</a> for 16,000 manufacturing businesses will also provoke interest.</p>
<p>This election is still Labor’s to lose.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is a Research Associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation. </span></em></p>COVID-19 is so far proving to be a big advantage for incumbents. Opposition parties are getting little traction when making the case for change.Paul Williams, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.