tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/anthony-albanese-71066/articlesAnthony Albanese – The Conversation2024-03-28T01:33:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2266222024-03-28T01:33:56Z2024-03-28T01:33:56ZFederal Essential poll the worst for Labor this term; SA Labor gains Dunstan at byelection<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–47 Labor lead last fortnight. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>Excluding undecided, this poll would be 53–47 to the Coalition. It is easily the worst poll of this term for Labor. Weak flows to Labor on respondent allocated preferences partly explain this result, with analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1772391006018892059">Kevin Bonham’s estimate</a> using 2022 election preference flows at about a 50.5–49.5 Coalition lead.</p>
<p>Essential’s poll was probably too favourable for the Coalition this week, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">Newspoll gave Labor</a> its second worst result this term: a 51–49 lead. In this week’s four federal polls, only Resolve had an improvement for Labor since the last time they did a poll.</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/26-march-2024">asked to give a rating</a> of 0 to 10 for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, then ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 35–32 negative (35–33 in February), while Dutton was at 34–31 negative (33–32 previously).</p>
<p>On addressing climate change, 38% (up two since October) thought Australia was doing enough, 35% (down three) said we are not doing enough and 18% (up one) that we are doing too much. During Coalition governments, not doing enough had a large lead.</p>
<p>Among those who have social media, 29% thought it had a negative impact on their lives and 20% a positive impact. By 45–23, respondents supported a ban on TikTok in Australia. On regulation of social media companies, 57% thought they should be regulated more, 34% the current regulation is about right and 9% wanted them regulated less.</p>
<h2>Resolve poll: Labor gains after preferences, but Albanese slides</h2>
<p>In a federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-personal-rating-slips-as-frustration-with-major-parties-grows-20240325-p5fexm.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted March 21–24 from a sample of 1,610, the Coalition had 35% of the primary vote (down two since February), Labor 32% (down two), the Greens 13% (up two), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 2% (up one), independents 11% (up two) and others 2% (down two).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 preference flows would give Labor about a 53.5–46.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since February. Resolve has been easily the pollster most favourable to Labor.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down five points to -11, with 49% giving him a poor rating and 38% a good one. Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -9. Albanese led as preferred PM by 40–30 (39–32 in February).</p>
<p>The Liberals led Labor on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">economic management</a> by 37–25 (38–27 in February). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 28–22 (30–26 in February).</p>
<p>In a question on <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-ute-tax-thrown-into-reverse-as-voters-lukewarm-on-new-emission-rules-20240325-p5ff66.html">efficiency standards for vehicles</a>, we are not told how the new vehicle efficiency standard is defined for poll respondents. This means we don’t know what the 41–22 opposed to this standard were asked.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and additional Newspoll question</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-support-for-the-alp-l-np-coalition-is-even-in-late-march-alp-50-cf-l-np-50">Morgan poll</a>, conducted March 18–24 from a sample of 1,633, had a 50–50 tie, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31.5% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 4.5% One Nation (down one), 7.5% independents (down 1.5) and 4.5% others (steady).</p>
<p>As with Essential, respondent allocated preferences were weak for Labor in Morgan. An estimate based on 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>I covered the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">previous Newspoll on Monday</a>. In an <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-bare-majority-of-voters-favour-fixed-fouryear-federal-parliamentary-terms/news-story/a8cc9bd94ef8af46debbce0510cc89a2">additional question</a>, 51% were in favour of changing the term of the federal house of representatives from the current three-year term to a four-year fixed term, while 37% were against.</p>
<p>Changing the terms of the house would require a referendum, and support usually slumps as a referendum approaches. A bare majority in favour currently is not a good position for referendum success.</p>
<h2>Labor gains Dunstan at SA byelection and Tasmania</h2>
<p>A byelection occurred last Saturday in former South Australian Liberal premier’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">seat of Dunstan</a>, which he won by a narrow 50.5–49.5 margin at the 2022 election. Labor gained it by 50.8–49.2, a 1.4% swing to Labor. This is a government gain from an opposition at a byelection. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 43.5% Liberals (down 3.2%), 32.1% Labor (down 3.0%), 19.1% Greens (up 5.5%) and 3.2% Animal Justice (new). Counting of <a href="https://result.ecsa.sa.gov.au/">election day polling booths</a> on Saturday night had given Labor a 54.0–46.0 lead, but declaration votes counted after election day gave the Liberals a 54.0–46.0 lead. Labor won because there were more votes cast on election day.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, the Hare-Clark distribution of preferences won’t start until after the deadline for receipt of postals next Tuesday. I expect this to be completed by the end of next week. Then we will know the identity of the 35 Tasmanian lower house members. I covered how the Hare-Clark system works in the article on last Saturday’s election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor well down but still leads</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/slip-in-labor-support-pushes-pesutto-s-team-ahead-for-first-time-in-years-20240327-p5ffl9.html?btis=">Victorian state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal February and March Resolve polls from a sample of 1,107, gave the Coalition 35% of the primary vote (up four since December), Labor 33% (down four), the Greens 13% (up two), independents 12% (down two) and others 7% (up one).</p>
<p>No two party estimate was provided by Resolve, but <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1773104858314240045">analyst Kevin Bonham estimated</a> 53–47 to Labor using 2022 election preference flows, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">since December</a>. No mention is made of preferences in The Age’s article.</p>
<p>In June 2023, the Coalition’s primary vote was 26% with Labor on 41% in this poll, so the Coalition has recovered much ground. This Resolve poll is similar to a mid-March <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">Redbridge poll</a> that gave Labor a 54–46 lead.</p>
<p>Labor premier Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto by 34–25 as preferred premier (34–22 in December). By 44–14, respondents thought Victoria’s outlook would get worse in the next 12 months, rather than improve. By 34–19, the said their personal situation would get worse rather than better.</p>
<p>“Voters overwhelmingly blamed the state government over their federal counterparts and private electricity providers” for the February electricity blackouts, and more than 75% favoured spending money to bury power lines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Coalition lead Labor 53–47, excluding undecided, in a federal Essential poll.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267272024-03-27T08:56:00Z2024-03-27T08:56:00ZView from the Hill: Albanese hit by unexpected wave as he tries to clear the decks<p>In 2023, Anthony Albanese was shooting for the moon, his eyes on the Voice referendum. On one view, he looked like the idealist reflecting his left-wing roots. </p>
<p>In 2024, we’re seeing a pragmatic, determined, managerial prime minister, busy attempting to reinforce the anchors of the ship of state and to clear its decks ahead of the May 14 budget. But this week, some rough weather hit the boat. </p>
<p>At a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/jul/25/alp-conference-2015-bill-shorten-to-unveil-asylum-policy-politics-live">Labor national conference less than a decade ago</a> Albanese opposed the ALP embracing turning back boats carrying asylum seekers. This week, his government tried to rush through legislation to give it power to force non-citizens to cooperate in their removal by, for example, signing an application for a passport or other travel documents.</p>
<p>Also this week, the government watered down its proposed vehicle efficiency measure in an effort to defuse opposition attacks that it is a “new car and ute tax”. </p>
<p>On another front, Albanese last week took the extraordinary course of declaring the government won’t proceed with legislation on religious discrimination without bipartisan support. </p>
<p>Taken together, these actions show a PM wanting to chart a course firmly focused on an election that is at most just over a year away. </p>
<p>Preoccupied as it was with the Voice referendum for much of last year, the government was late to appreciate the extent to which voters were becoming overwhelmingly concerned with the cost of living. </p>
<p>It’s not making that mistake now. </p>
<p>Last year it also didn’t anticipate a possible threat to its immigration detention regime. It was ambushed by the High Court’s judgement in November prohibiting the indefinite incarceration of immigration detainees. </p>
<p>As a result of that decision, about 150 people were released, the Coalition sparked a fear campaign about ex-criminals roaming the streets, and the government played catch-up with emergency legislation including for preventative detention. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-consequences-of-the-governments-new-migration-legislation-could-be-dire-for-individuals-and-for-australia-226713">The consequences of the government's new migration legislation could be dire – for individuals and for Australia</a>
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<p>But it always has the refugee lawyers on its heels and so, for example, to avoid court rebuffs to legislation already passed, it has been withdrawing its requirement for individuals to wear ankle bracelets.</p>
<p>The government didn’t want to be caught out a second time by the High Court, which has another seminal case coming, with a hearing in April. It relates to an Iranian man who’s refusing to cooperate with attempts to deport him; Iran won’t take back involuntary removals. </p>
<p>The government has better prospects of winning this case. But it wants to shore up its defences, both to convince the court, and in the event the worst happens. </p>
<p>This week’s bill would prohibit non-citizens the government is trying to remove from refusing to cooperate. The penalty would be a mandatory year’s jail, with a maximum sentence of five years. Countries that refuse to accept involuntary returnees would also be subject to sanctions – their citizens (with some exceptions) could not get visas to come to Australia. </p>
<p>One can imagine what Labor would have said if a Coalition government had thrown up such a bill with no notice. </p>
<p>The government gambled the opposition would have little option but to pass the bill. But on Wednesday the Coalition called its bluff. </p>
<p>In a rare alliance of Coalition, Greens and crossbenchers, the Senate has referred the bill to a committee inquiry. This is due to report on May 7, meaning the legislation can’t be passed before the budget session (or the High Court hearing).</p>
<p>Worse for the government, the heat intensified on Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil, after a report that she had bawled out her departmental secretary, Stephanie Foster, over Foster making public, in the context of a Senate hearing, a document about the ex-detainees’ criminal backgrounds. </p>
<p>On the same day the immigration legislation was unveiled, Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Transport Minister Catherine King walked back the government’s vehicle efficiency standards policy. </p>
<p>Initially the government had released three options for this new (and overdue) policy, declaring its preferred option would see Australia in line with the United States. </p>
<p>Then a few things happened. The Coalition went into full attack. The US recalibrated its own position, under pressure from its auto industry. The Greens, unhappy about another government policy, indicated they wouldn’t wave through the government’s option. </p>
<p>The Albanese office maintained oversight of negotiations with the industry, and agreed to take meetings with senior stakeholders from the car companies and industry bodies, to build confidence in the consultation process.</p>
<p>The retreat on emissions standards is modest, although the opposition will campaign against the standards regardless. </p>
<p>While the battle over the immigration bill and the retreat on emission reduction standards were playing out in public, behind closed doors Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus was briefing his opposition counterpart Michaelia Cash, the Greens and crossbenchers about the proposed religious discrimination draft legislation. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/future-of-anthony-albaneses-religious-discrimination-legislation-is-in-peter-duttons-hands-226119">Future of Anthony Albanese's religious discrimination legislation is in Peter Dutton's hands</a>
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<p>The government has given Cash the draft legislation, on a confidential basis. The Greens and some crossbenchers were angry they were not provided with it. </p>
<p>From what’s been said so far, the proposed religious discrimination legislation would scrap the present provisions of the Sex Discrimination Act, which allow religious schools to discriminate on grounds of sexuality and gender identification against both students and teachers. </p>
<p>This would be replaced in new legislation by a prohibition of any discrimination against students. Schools would be able to preference people sharing their faith and values in hiring, but not discriminate in firing. </p>
<p>In addition, there would be an explicit protection to safeguard people against discrimination on the basis of their faith. </p>
<p>The Senate forced the government into an inquiry on the immigration legislation, but Albanese has said he won’t have an inquiry into the religious freedom legislation. </p>
<p>Albanese’s conditional stand on this legislation is driven by his not wanting a divisive debate in the run up to the election. He has been seared enough by the Voice issue. </p>
<p>On religious discrimination, he is wedged between LGBTQ+ advocates and various faith groups. The situation is further complicated by the Greens saying they would be willing to work with the government on the legislation. If the attempt to get bipartisanship – Labor-Coalition agreement – falls apart, both sides can blame each other. Most voters will have their minds on more urgent concerns. </p>
<p>The final days of the autumn parliamentary sitting have run off course for the government, with the delay of the immigration legislation. The uncertainty hanging over the religious freedom legislation is unhelpful. Despite Albanese’s efforts, the seas are still choppy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 2024, we’re seeing a pragmatic, determined, managerial prime minister trying to reinforce the anchors of the ship of state ahead of the May budget.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2264632024-03-24T22:31:34Z2024-03-24T22:31:34ZLabor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election<p>A <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-heading-toward-minority-government-at-next-election/news-story/b9f5937dd4184f3c6650db668cde552a">national Newspoll</a>, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Labor’s worst Newspoll this term occurred in late November, when it was tied with the Coalition at 50–50. In the next three Newspolls, conducted from December to February, Labor led by 52–48, but it has now slid to its second worst Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 44% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -7, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid one point to -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–34 (47–35 four weeks ago).</p>
<p>This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the beginning of this term shows there hasn’t been a recovery since the October Voice referendum. Prior to this referendum, Albanese’s ratings were about net zero, but since then his ratings have been well below zero.</p>
<p>I believe inflation and the cost of living are still negatives for Labor. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9440-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-march-19">weekly consumer confidence</a> measure has fallen back recently, and has spent a record 59 successive weeks below 85. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">March Freshwater poll</a>, cost of living was rated important by 72%, up three since February.</p>
<h2>Labor won’t contest federal Cook byelection</h2>
<p>Nominations were declared last Friday for an April 13 federal byelection in former Liberal PM Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024">seat of Cook</a>. Morrison won Cook by a 62.4–37.6 margin against Labor at the 2022 election. Labor won’t contest the byelection, with the Greens and an independent likely to be the Liberals’ only competition.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian election: Labor unnecessarily concedes</h2>
<p>The most likely outcome of Saturday’s Tasmanian state election is for the Liberals to win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents two. The Liberals would be three short of the 18 needed for a majority. Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/tasmania-embraces-chaos-2024-election.html">Kevin Bonham has more</a> on the count.</p>
<p>These results won’t be confirmed until the Hare-Clark preference distributions take place after the deadline for receipt of postals passes on April 2.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<p>If the most likely outcome occurred, the JLN would have the balance of power between the Liberals and a Labor and Green bloc. If Labor or the Greens won one more seat, Labor, the Greens and the two independents could form a government without needing the JLN.</p>
<p>However, all this may be moot because <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422">Labor has conceded</a>. It appears Labor won’t form a government that includes the Greens. Labor has been out of power in Tasmania since the 2014 state election.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system, not a single-member system where majorities for one party are much easier to obtain. If Labor won’t cooperate with the Greens to form government, the next Tasmanian Labor government is not likely to form anytime soon.</p>
<h2>Redbridge Victorian poll: Labor down but still far ahead</h2>
<p>The Herald Sun on Monday reported that a <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/coalition-records-best-primary-vote-result-since-june-2021-poll/news-story/a8656e6e9eafd8960765483a9ffb51e8">Victorian Redbridge poll</a>, conducted March 14–20 from a sample of 1,559, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll in December</a>. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down three) and 16% for all Others (up two). </p>
<p>The Herald Sun’s report says this is the first time the Coalition has had a primary vote lead over Labor in Victoria since June 2021. This may apply to Redbridge, but a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Victorian Morgan poll</a> that was conducted in July 2023 after the Commonwealth Games were axed had the Coalition ahead on primary votes, and Labor’s two party lead at 53–47.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Inflation and the cost of living continue to eat away at Labor’s polling advantage.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2262202024-03-20T04:01:17Z2024-03-20T04:01:17ZWhy are religious discrimination laws back in the news? And where did they come from in the first place?<p>On March 21, the federal government will release the Australian Law Reform Commission’s report on ensuring religious schools cannot discriminate against LGBTQIA+ students and staff.</p>
<p>But the political debate is already well under way – and has been going on since 2017. So how did we get here?</p>
<h2>The current debate started with marriage equality</h2>
<p>When same-sex marriage was legalised in late 2017 following a successful postal survey on the issue, conservative religious groups were promised a <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-wants-religious-discrimination-act-passed-before-election-108755">“religious freedom” review</a> as a consolation prize. </p>
<p>That <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/domestic-policy/taskforces-past-domestic-policy-initiatives/religious-freedom-review">review</a>, led by former Liberal minister Philip Ruddock, found Australia does not have a religious freedom problem. However, it did recommend new legislative protections against religious discrimination. In <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/government-response-religious-freedom-review">response</a>, in December 2018, the Morrison government promised a Religious Discrimination Act.</p>
<p>What the Morrison government ended up proposing – in multiple versions over several years – was laws that would both prohibit discrimination against people on the basis of religion (which was not particularly controversial) and allow discrimination against LGBTQIA+ people and others by taking away existing anti-discrimination protections (which was very controversial). These draft laws never passed.</p>
<p>Before the 2022 federal election, Labor leader Anthony Albanese promised to change federal law to ban discrimination against LGTBQIA+ students and staff by religious schools, and to protect people against discrimination on the basis of their religious beliefs or lack of religious beliefs.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/future-of-anthony-albaneses-religious-discrimination-legislation-is-in-peter-duttons-hands-226119">Future of Anthony Albanese's religious discrimination legislation is in Peter Dutton's hands</a>
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<h2>There are actually two distinct issues at play</h2>
<p>The debate we’ve been having over the past few years is actually a debate about two issues.</p>
<p>The first issue is about religious discrimination. This means ensuring people are not discriminated against on the basis of their religious beliefs, or lack of religious beliefs. </p>
<p>All states and territories (other than New South Wales and South Australia) already have laws banning this kind of religious discrimination. But there is no federal law banning religious discrimination – apart from a <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s116.html">constitutional provision</a> banning religious discrimination in federal government jobs.</p>
<p>It’s standard practice for there to be complementary federal and state anti-discrimination laws on the same topic. For example, if a person is discriminated against on the basis of their race, that person can choose to take action under either federal or state law.</p>
<p>One proposal is for there to be a federal Religious Discrimination Act.</p>
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<p>The second issue is religious exemptions, which involves allowing discrimination on the basis of sexuality, gender identity, marital status and so on where the discrimination has a religious motivation. For example, the Sex Discrimination Act currently prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex, sexuality, gender identity and marital status, but also includes an exemption that allows religious schools to discriminate against students and teachers. </p>
<p>So, if a non-religious private school expels a student for being gay that would contravene the Sex Discrimination Act. But if a religious school did the same thing for religious reasons, that would not contravene the Sex Discrimination Act.</p>
<p>Some states and territories already ban religious schools from discriminating against students and teachers for these kinds of reasons. So if a religious school in Victoria expels a student for being gay, that would not breach federal law as it stands but it would breach Victorian law. The practical result is that the school can’t expel the student for being gay.</p>
<p>A second proposal is to modify the religious exemptions in the Sex Discrimination Act.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-does-not-need-a-religious-discrimination-act-99666">Why Australia does not need a Religious Discrimination Act</a>
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<h2>The Morrison government’s first draft of the legislation</h2>
<p>The Morrison government held a consultation during 2019 on a <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/rights-and-protections/consultations/religious-discrimination-bills-first-exposure-drafts">first draft</a> of its promised legislation. This draft legislation included standard anti-discrimination provisions to prohibit discrimination against people on the basis of their religious beliefs or lack of religious beliefs. It also included highly controversial additional provisions.</p>
<p>The controversial provisions included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a provision about “statements of belief” – motivated by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-does-rugby-australia-have-legal-grounds-to-sack-israel-folau-for-anti-gay-social-media-posts-116170">Israel Folau controversy</a> – which would have overridden all other federal and state anti-discrimination laws to allow derogatory statements to be made by doctors, schools and employers against women, people with disabilities and LGTBQIA+ people.</p></li>
<li><p>a provision allowing healthcare practitioners to refuse to provide care to people, such as allowing a pharmacist to refuse to fill prescriptions for a divorced woman or a nurse to refuse to dress a gay man’s wound.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In effect, these provisions would have created a “sword” allowing harm to be inflicted on people by taking away existing anti-discrimination protections. Anti-discrimination laws are meant to be a “shield” protecting people from harm. This is why the issue has been so controversial.</p>
<h2>The Morrison government’s second draft</h2>
<p>The controversy over the first draft led to consultations in 2020 on a <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/rights-and-protections/consultations/religious-discrimination-bills-second-exposure-drafts">second draft</a>.</p>
<p>The second draft was very similar to the first. It too included the override provisions on “statements of belief” and refusal to provide health care. </p>
<p>However, it reduced the number of healthcare professions entitled to refuse to treat patients. It also included some <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/summary-of-amendments-to-the-bills-since-the-first-exposure-draft.pdf">additional measures</a> about:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>allowing religious hospitals to “preference” people of the same religion as the body in hiring decisions. For example, a Catholic hospital could give priority to Catholics in hiring new staff</p></li>
<li><p>allowing religious camps and conference centres to take faith into account when hiring out their campsites.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The bill fails</h2>
<p>The Morrison government <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6821">introduced legislation</a> based on the second draft into parliament in 2021. </p>
<p>During debate, several Liberal backbenchers <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2022/March/Floor_crossings_in_the_House_of_Representatives_on_10_February_2022">crossed the floor</a> to vote in favour of amendments the government did not want. One of those amendments – to remove the ability of religious schools to discriminate against LGBTQIA+ students – succeeded, with five Liberal MPs crossing the floor. </p>
<p>The amended bill passed the House of Representatives with the support of both major parties. However, it did not come to a final vote in the Senate because people on all sides of the debate were unhappy with the bill and it was causing internal tensions in the Liberal Party. The bill lapsed.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1491643299232288770"}"></div></p>
<h2>So why is it back in the news?</h2>
<p>After the Labor Party won the 2022 federal election, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus <a href="https://ministers.ag.gov.au/media-centre/australian-law-reform-commission-review-religious-exemptions-educational-institutions-04-11-2022">asked</a> the Australian Law Reform Commission to advise on what amendments to federal law would be necessary to deliver the Labor Party’s election promise. Labor’s promised legislation would:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>ensure religious schools cannot discriminate against LGBTQIA+ students or staff under federal law.</p></li>
<li><p>ensure religious schools can give preference to people of the same faith as the school when hiring staff under federal law.</p></li>
<li><p>ensure the legislation will be drafted in a manner that does not remove existing legal protections against other forms of discrimination.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The commission delivered its report to the attorney-general in December 2023. </p>
<p>In anticipation of the report being released on March 21, senior politicians on both sides of politics, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, have <a href="https://theconversation.com/future-of-anthony-albaneses-religious-discrimination-legislation-is-in-peter-duttons-hands-226119">already started</a> the politicking. The debate may not be over yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226220/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Beck is board member of the Rationalist Society of Australia Inc and a member of Australia Labor Party. The views in this article are his own.</span></em></p>Religious discrimination laws have been highly controversial in Australia in recent years. Here’s where they started, and where we are now.Luke Beck, Professor of Constitutional Law, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256612024-03-18T02:57:58Z2024-03-18T02:57:58ZWill the AUKUS deal survive in the event of a Trump presidency? All signs point to yes<p>A year ago, the AUKUS agreement was formally announced between Australian and UK Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden. The agreement mapped out the “<a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/optimal-pathway">optimal pathway</a>” for Australia, over the next two decades, to acquire between six and eight sub-surface nuclear propulsion boats, or more simply put, nuclear submarines.</p>
<p>The plan to acquire and build them has been the subject of ongoing debate. That’s largely because there’s limited understanding of the <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/one-year-along-australias-optimal-pathway-to-nuclear-powered-submarines/">need for Australia</a> to acquire submarines of this kind. </p>
<p>Concerns are also emerging over how committed the US really is to the deal, given doubts about whether it has the industrial capability to manufacture enough subs to meet its own needs. All this has fuelled speculation over the project’s viability. </p>
<p>So what is the US obliged to provide Australia with, in terms of submarines, under AUKUS? When will Australia likely get submarines under this deal? And how much can the domestic political and naval challenges facing the US affect how it meets its AUKUS requirements, particularly if Donald Trump is elected president?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aukus-is-here-to-stay-despite-looming-roadblocks-213112">Why AUKUS is here to stay, despite looming roadblocks</a>
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<h2>The state of play</h2>
<p>Australia is now heavily invested in making AUKUS work, avoiding further <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-11/albanese-submarine-deal-with-france/101145042">policy U-turns</a>. </p>
<p>Aided by some deft Australian diplomacy, in December 2023 the US Congress passed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670">National Defence Authorisation Act</a> which <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2023-12-15/passage-priority-aukus-submarine-and-export-control-exemption-legislation-united-states-congress">authorised</a> the transfer of three Virginia class submarines to Australia in the 2030s. Given the almost gridlocked US political system, this was once considered inconceivable. </p>
<p>The act also confirmed arrangements for training Australians in US and UK shipyards and, in turn, the maintenance of their submarines in Australia by Australians. </p>
<p>That does not mean, though, that everything is now set on autopilot. Understandably, the US reserves the right to fulfil its own domestic naval needs first. </p>
<p>But fears of the plans being derailed are misplaced, and suggestions Australia reverse course are problematic. Critics referring to the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-13/us-defence-announcement-raises-questions-on-aukus-anniversary/103578408">profound impact</a>” of any production slowdown have an important political point to make, drawing attention to the need for urgency and acceleration of the program, not cancellation.</p>
<p>Reports that the rate of production of these Virginia class submarines will dip to 1.3 per year has <a href="https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/usn-virginia-submarine-production-shortfall-worsens/">generated some alarm</a>. This belies the fact the dip in production was anticipated and plans are underway to rectify the shortfall. The two US manufacturing companies that make submarines of this type, <a href="https://www.gdeb.com/">Electric Boat</a> and <a href="https://hii.com/">Huntington Ingalls Industries</a>, are taking measures to accelerate the rate of manufacture to 2.3 boats per year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aukus-deal-will-be-hotly-debated-at-the-alp-national-conference-but-its-real-vulnerabilities-lie-in-america-211504">The AUKUS deal will be hotly debated at the ALP national conference, but its real vulnerabilities lie in America</a>
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<p>Australia’s <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/AUKUS-factsheet.pdf">financial and personnel contributions</a> are helping. Plans are still in place that will enable Australia to purchase its first second-hand, but refurbished, Virginia class submarine in the mid-2030s.</p>
<p>That seems a long way off. To cover the gap, Australia’s existing diesel-electric Collins class submarines will be retained, supplemented by a <a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/submarine-rotational-force-west">Submarine Rotational Force-West</a>, which will include UK and US submarines rotating through the Garden Island Naval Facility in Cockburn Sound, south of Fremantle. </p>
<p>While it doesn’t have the recognition of Pearl Harbor, Cockburn Sound is just as significant. In the Pacific war, about 170 allied submarines were based at Cockburn Sound from 1942 to 1945. From there, they protected Allied shipping and interdicted enemy sea lines of communication across the Indian Ocean, as well as the Malacca, Lombok and Sunda straits (in modern-day Indonesia), and across the South China Sea and around Formosa (now Taiwan). </p>
<p>Already, US Navy Virginia class subs have started making routine port calls there. The deterrent effect is already kicking in – and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5f0e31c0-957d-4c4f-a6e3-e597881d8fd9#:%7E:text=Concerns%20about%20the,in%20the%20Pacific.">vociferous criticism of AUKUS</a> suggests that some <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_lady_doth_protest_too_much,_methinks">doth protest too much</a>.</p>
<h2>What if Trump comes to power?</h2>
<p>In the meantime, some worry about what effect Trump’s prospective return to office might have on these plans. </p>
<p>AUKUS is understood to be a game-changer, and political leaders in Washington DC, both Democrat and Republican, understand this. It reflects an enduring overlap of Australian and US interests, not just sentimental attachments. </p>
<p>Australia benefits from US technology in bolstering its military and intelligence capabilities, reducing its “<a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment">fear of abandonment</a>”.</p>
<p>In turn, the US retains access to facilities in the East Asian hemisphere to monitor security trends and bolster deterrence in ways that suit their <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188604/united-states-direct-investments-in-the-asia-pacific-region-since-2000/">economic and security interests</a>. This is appreciated by US security <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/05/fact-sheet-u-s-asean-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-one-year-on/">partners in Asia</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, while Trump has been critical of <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/closer-trumps-years-criticizing-nato-defense-spending/story?id=107201586">NATO and other allies</a>, he has broadly avoided criticising Australia. </p>
<p>The overwhelmingly bipartisan December vote in Congress suggests that fears of the agreement losing support in the US are misplaced. There are no indications Trump is set to change that stance, and there are some compelling reasons for the next US administration to stay the course. </p>
<h2>Why do we need new submarines anyway?</h2>
<p>Back home, though, the Australian government’s message on these submarines has been clouded. </p>
<p>Eager to avoid drawing undue attention to the limitations of the current fleet, it has avoided talking up how potent and useful the replacement subs will be. </p>
<p>This is in spite of the fact that no matter how <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/collins-class-submarine-upgrade-will-extend-australias-non-nuclear-boats-to-2048/">well maintained and updated</a> the Collins are, such submarines are no longer viable for long-distance transits required for Australian submarine operations. This is not because of some intrinsic fault with the Australian submarines, but due to their ability to be detected from above.</p>
<p>The surveillance web of persistent and almost saturation <a href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-casic-to-begin-launching-vleo-satellites-in-december/#:%7E:text=The%20very-low%20Earth%20orbit%20%28VLEO%29%20constellation%20is%20to,in%20the%20city%20of%20Wuhan%20earlier%20this%20month.">satellite coverage</a>, coupled with drones and artificial intelligence, makes the wake of the submarine funnels are detectable when they raise their snorkel to recharge batteries. </p>
<p>Much of this surveillance is believed to be operating from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-18/china-s-new-antarctic-station-qinling-in-antarctica-australia/103464840">Chinese facilities in Antarctica</a>, <a href="https://spacenews.com/south-africa-joins-chinas-moon-base-project/">southern Africa</a> and <a href="https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-ground-stations-space/">South America</a>. </p>
<p>With stealth of submarines the only real advantage over surface warships, the usefulness of the current fleet on long transits sinks quickly. This leaves nuclear propulsion as the only viable path for countries that must traverse vast ocean distances even to cover their own waters. </p>
<p>For Australia, a transit from any capital city across to Fremantle cannot happen without exposure to detection. In wartime, that presents a catastrophic risk only surmounted by remaining underwater for the duration.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aukus-deal-will-be-hotly-debated-at-the-alp-national-conference-but-its-real-vulnerabilities-lie-in-america-211504">The AUKUS deal will be hotly debated at the ALP national conference, but its real vulnerabilities lie in America</a>
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<p>Beyond recouping stealth, the benefits of the new nuclear submarines are considerable. Australian submarines are intended to help manage vital shipping lanes. </p>
<p>The new vessels can travel faster than the current fleet (about 20 knots on average instead of six-and-a-half knots) and stay on station for longer, bolstering the deterrent effect. </p>
<p>The main constraint is food for the crew. A fleet of up to eight nuclear subs should generate three times the effective deployable time compared with the current Australian fleet because it can deploy faster, loiter longer and remain undetected, without needing to recharge batteries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Blaxland is Professor of International Security and Intelligence Studies and Director of the Australian National University’s (ANU) North America Liaison Office in Washington DC. He is author of a number of works, including Revealing Secrets: An Unofficial History of Australian Signals Intelligence and the Advent of Cyber (UNSWP, 2023, with Clare Birgin).</span></em></p>Amid reports of a dip in US production of nuclear submarines and concerns about the future of the agreement under Donald Trump, some have questioned the viability of AUKUS. But they need not worry.John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250792024-03-05T06:15:22Z2024-03-05T06:15:22ZWhy have Anthony Albanese and other politicians been referred to the ICC over the Gaza war?<p>In an unprecedented legal development, senior Australian politicians, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, have been referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for investigation into whether they have aided or supported Israel’s actions in Gaza. </p>
<p>The referral, made by the Sydney law firm <a href="https://birchgrovelegal.com.au/2024/03/01/birchgrove-legal-files-case-for-complicity-to-genocide-to-the-hague-international-criminal-court-media-release/?fbclid=IwAR1mfkJ08SSs3rmZW7inOLNaPnwJ3SsKHXVyIw57usvRpGuyang4x0TCA7c">Birchgrove Legal</a> on behalf of their clients, is the first time any serving Australian political leaders have been formally referred to the ICC for investigation. </p>
<p>The referral asserts that Albanese, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and other members of the government have violated the <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf">Rome Statute</a>, the 1998 treaty that established the ICC to investigate and prosecute allegations of war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.</p>
<p>Specifically, the law firm references:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Australia’s freezing of aid to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), the aid agency that operates in Gaza</p></li>
<li><p>the provision of military aid to Israel that could have been used in the alleged commission of genocide and crimes against humanity </p></li>
<li><p>permitting Australians to travel to Israel to take part in attacks in Gaza </p></li>
<li><p>providing “unequivocal political support” for Israel’s actions in Gaza. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>A key aspect of the referral is the assertion, under Article 25 of the Rome Statute, that Albanese and the others bear individual criminal responsibility for aiding, abetting or otherwise assisting in the commission (or attempted commission) of alleged crimes by Israel in Gaza.</p>
<p>At a news conference today, Albanese <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/mar/05/australia-news-live-anthony-albanese-asean-green-energy-investment-south-east-asia-cook-kennedy-women-liberals-peter-dutton?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-65e678228f08826910dd03dd#block-65e678228f08826910dd03dd">said the letter</a> had “no credibility” and was an example of “misinformation”. He said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia joined a majority in the UN to call for an immediate ceasefire and to advocate for the release of hostages, the delivery of humanitarian assistance, the upholding of international law and the protection of civilians.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/there-has-been-much-talk-of-war-crimes-in-the-israel-gaza-conflict-but-will-anyone-actually-be-prosecuted-217785">There has been much talk of war crimes in the Israel-Gaza conflict. But will anyone actually be prosecuted?</a>
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</p>
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<h2>How the referral process works</h2>
<p>There are a couple of key questions here: can anyone be referred to the ICC, and how often do these referrals lead to an investigation?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/otp">Referrals to the ICC prosecutor</a> are most commonly made by individual countries – as has occurred following <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/situations/ukraine">Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022</a> – or by the UN Security Council. However, it is also possible for referrals to be made by “intergovernmental or non-governmental organisations, or other reliable sources”, according to Article 15 of the Rome Statute. </p>
<p>The ICC prosecutor’s office has received <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/otp">12,000 such referrals</a> to date. These must go through a preliminary examination before the office decides whether there are “reasonable grounds” to start an investigation. </p>
<p>The court has issued arrest warrants for numerous leaders over the past two decades, including Russian President <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/17/icc-arrest-warrant-vladimir-putin-explainer">Vladimir Putin</a> and his commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lvova-Belova; former Sudanese President <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/26/sudan-former-president-accused-of-genocide-may-be-free-after-prison-attack">Omar al-Bashir</a>; and now-deceased Libyan leader <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/6/28/icc-issues-gaddafi-arrest-warrant">Muammar Gaddafi</a>.</p>
<h2>Why this referral is unlikely to go anywhere</h2>
<p>Putting aside the merit of the allegations themselves, it is unlikely the Australian referrals will go any further for legal and practical reasons. </p>
<p>First, the ICC was established as an <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works">international court of last resort</a>. This means it would only be used to prosecute international crimes when courts at a national level are unwilling or unable to do so.</p>
<p>As such, the threat of possible ICC prosecution was intended to act as a deterrent for those considering committing international crimes, as well as an incentive for national authorities and courts to prosecute them. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-accountability-for-alleged-war-crimes-so-hard-to-achieve-in-the-israel-palestinian-conflict-160864">Why is accountability for alleged war crimes so hard to achieve in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?</a>
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<p>Australia has such a process in place to investigate potential war crimes and other international crimes through the <a href="https://www.osi.gov.au/">Office of the Special Investigator</a> (OSI).</p>
<p>The OSI was created in the wake of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/19/key-findings-of-the-brereton-report-into-allegations-of-australian-war-crimes-in-afghanistan">2020 Brereton Report</a> into allegations of Australian war crimes in Afghanistan. In <a href="https://www.osi.gov.au/news-resources/former-australian-soldier-charged-war-crime">March 2023</a>, the office announced its first prosecution.</p>
<p>Because Australia has this legal framework in place, the ICC prosecutor would likely deem it unnecessary to refer Australian politicians to the ICC for prosecution, unless Australia was unwilling to start such a prosecution itself. At present, there is no evidence that is the case. </p>
<p>Another reason this referral is likely to go nowhere: the ICC prosecutor, Karim Khan, is <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/cases">currently focusing on a range of investigations</a> related to alleged war crimes committed by Russia, Hamas and Israel, in addition to other historical investigations. </p>
<p>Given the significance of these investigations – and the political pressure the ICC faces to act with speed – it is unlikely the court would divert limited resources to investigate Australian politicians.</p>
<h2>Increasing prominence of international courts</h2>
<p>This referral to the ICC, however, needs to be seen in a wider context. The Israel-Hamas conflict has resulted in an unprecedented flurry of legal proceedings before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s top court. </p>
<p>Unlike the ICC, the ICJ does not deal with individual criminal responsibility. The ICJ does, however, have jurisdiction over whether countries violate international law, such as the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf">Genocide Convention</a>. </p>
<p>This was the basis for <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192">South Africa</a> to launch its case against Israel in the ICJ, claiming its actions against the Palestinian people amounted to genocide. The ICJ issued a provisional ruling against Israel in January which said it’s “plausible” Israel had committed genocide in Gaza and ordered Israel to take immediate steps to prevent acts of genocide. </p>
<p>In addition, earlier this week, a new case was launched in the ICJ by <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/case/193">Nicaragua</a>, alleging Germany has supported acts of genocide by providing military support for Israel and freezing aid for UNRWA.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1763633881939427400"}"></div></p>
<p>All of these developments in recent months amount to what experts call “<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-israel-pans-nicaraguas-world-court-suit-experts-see-new-lawfare-front-in-war/">lawfare</a>”. This refers to the use of international or domestic courts to seek accountability for alleged state-sanctioned acts of genocide and support or complicity in such acts. Some of these cases have merit, others are very weak. </p>
<p>As one international law expert <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/26/lawfare-on-israels-war-on-gaza-reaches-germany-will-the-case-succeed">described the purpose</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s […] a way of raising awareness, getting media attention and showing your own political base you’re doing something. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>These cases do succeed in increasing public awareness of these conflicts. And they make clear the desire of many around the world to hold to account those seen as being responsible for gross violations of international law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225079/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council</span></em></p>The war has resulted in a flurry of legal proceedings in international courts. Some cases have merit, while others are very weak.Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249642024-03-04T11:31:11Z2024-03-04T11:31:11ZAlbanese to announce $2 billion financing facility to boost economic relations with Southeast Asia<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will unveil a suite of financial and other incentives to boost Australia’s economic relations with Southeast Asia when he addresses the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit’s CEO forum on Tuesday. </p>
<p>A $2 billion Southeast Asia Investment Financing Facility will provide loans, guarantees, equity and insurance for increasing Australian trade and investment in the region, especially supporting its transition to clean energy and developing infrastructure. </p>
<p>The facility will be managed by Export Finance Australia. </p>
<p>Australia will also provide $140 million over four years to extend the current <a href="https://www.partnershipsforinfrastructure.org">Partnerships for Infrastructure Program</a>, which has been operating since 2021. This funding will assist Southeast Asian nations to improve their infrastructure development and hasten reforms to attract more diverse infrastructure financing. </p>
<p>The emphasis in this program has been on helping partners in the areas of transport, clean energy and telecommunications. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-take-this-for-granted-why-the-asean-australia-relationship-needs-a-jolt-of-youthful-leadership-224501">'We take this for granted': why the ASEAN-Australia relationship needs a jolt of youthful leadership</a>
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<p>Among other measures, regional “landing pads” in Jakarta, Indonesia, and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, will support Australian businesses to increase exports of technology services to the region. </p>
<p>Ten “business champions” – senior Australian business leaders – are to strengthen investment and trade ties with each of the Southeast Asian countries. </p>
<p>Business validity visas will be lengthened from three to five years, and the ten-year <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-listing/visitor-600/frequent-traveller-stream">Frequent Traveller Scheme</a> will be extended to eligible ASEAN countries and Timor-Leste.</p>
<p>In his speech to 100 Australian and Southeast Asian CEOs, Albanese will say that in 2022 Australia’s two-way trade with ASEAN members passed $178 billion. That was more than Australia’s trade with Japan or the United States. Australia’s two-way investment with the region was some $307 billion.</p>
<p>“But we want to do more – to support regional growth and to realise mutual benefits. To deepen our ties and to boost the skills of our people,” Albanese says in his speech, released ahead of delivery.</p>
<p>“There is so much untapped potential,” the PM says, but “not unlimited time. </p>
<p>"We must act together, and we must act now.” </p>
<p>He nominates specific areas for action, which are </p>
<ul>
<li><p>to use the digital economy to support the region’s social and economic development </p></li>
<li><p>to turn our commodities into higher value exports in competitive global markets</p></li>
<li><p>to back women’s equality in business leadership, and </p></li>
<li><p>to leverage our expertise and technology to meet the region’s energy needs. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>“We want to ensure businesses in Southeast Asia can access the markets that are available in Australia including in infrastructure and the clean energy transition.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Penny Wong told the <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/asean-australia-special-summit-2024-keynote-address-maritime-cooperation-forum">Maritime Cooperation Forum</a> at the summit the region faced “the most confronting circumstances […] in decades”.</p>
<p>“We face destabilising, provocative and coercive actions, including unsafe conduct at sea and in the air and militarisation of disputed features.</p>
<p>"We know that military power is expanding, but measures to constrain military conflict are not – and there are few concrete mechanisms for averting it,” Wong said.</p>
<p>Australia recognised “ASEAN centrality as key to the region’s stability and security, and we are committed to supporting ASEAN’s leadership,” she said.</p>
<p>She said Australia was working with ASEAN countries “to increase resilience to coercion, and to ensure waterways that serve us all remain open and accessible”.</p>
<p>Wong announced a further $64 million over four years, including $40 million in new funding, for enhancing Australia’s <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/new-funding-maritime-partnerships-southeast-asia">Southeast Asian maritime partnerships</a>. </p>
<p>A further $222.5 million will go to supporting “resilience in the Mekong subregion”. </p>
<p>“A second phase of the Mekong-Australia Partnership will build on our existing partnerships to invest in water security, climate change resilience, combatting transnational crime, and strengthening sub-regional leadership.”</p>
<p>On Monday, Albanese hosted Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim for an official visit to Australia.</p>
<p>At their joint news conference, Anwar stressed that Malaysia sought good relations with both the United States and China. </p>
<p>Malaysia was “fiercely independent”. It remained an important friend to the United States and Australia, but that “should not preclude us from being friendly to one of our important neighbours, precisely China […] We do not have a problem with China,” Anwar said.</p>
<h2>Update: Albanese on Tuesday announced the 10 Business Champions</h2>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The prime minister said ‘there is so much untapped potential’ in the region of 650 million people to the north of Australia, but ‘not unlimited time.’Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2238532024-02-25T22:19:07Z2024-02-25T22:19:07ZLabor steady in Newspoll but down in Resolve; it’s tied in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/second-newspoll-in-a-row-shows-no-net-gain-for-labor-after-its-tax-reset/news-story/67814b9a43e96d1151f062fe5a79ce82">Newspoll</a>, conducted February 19–23 <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/most-australians-would-back-a-move-to-small-scale-nuclear-power/news-story/88589682d1d46b8257c0386f61d51aa6">from a sample</a> of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 13% for all Others (up two). </p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 43% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -8, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down one point to -14. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 47–35 (46–35 previously).</p>
<p>This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll shows there has not been a recovery since the defeat of the Voice referendum.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/dec-2023">reported last Wednesday</a> that the wage price index rose 4.2% in the full year 2023 and 0.9% in the December quarter. This is the highest annual rise since 2009, though the quarterly rise was down from 1.3% in September.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">annual inflation rate</a> for the full year 2023 was 4.1%, so wage rises just beat inflation. For the December quarter, inflation was up 0.6%, so wage rises exceeded inflation by 0.3%. I expect this will be good news for the government.</p>
<h2>Labor down in Resolve poll, but would still lead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-takes-primary-vote-lead-from-labor-for-first-time-since-election-20240225-p5f7lm.html?btis=">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted February 21–24 from a sample of 1,603, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (up three since early December), Labor 34% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 6% (up one), the UAP 1% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 4% (up one).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until near elections, but applying 2022 preference flows to this poll gives Labor about a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since December. This is easily Labor’s worst position this term in a Resolve poll, which has been very pro-Labor relative to other polls.</p>
<p>Despite Labor’s drop, Albanese’s net approval improved six points to -6, with 47% giving him a poor rating and 41% a good rating. Dutton was <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">down three points</a> to a -11 net approval. Albanese led Dutton by 39–32 as preferred PM, a narrowing from 42–28 in December. Voters supported the changes to the stage three tax cuts by a 52–14 margin.</p>
<p>The Liberals increased their lead over Labor on economic management from 35–27 in December to 38–27. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 30–26 (26–21 in December).</p>
<h2>Labor gains in Freshwater poll for a 51–49 lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-unscathed-but-unrewarded-for-tax-u-turn-20240218-p5f5t9">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted February 16–18 from a sample of 1,049, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since a <a href="https://theconversation.com/freshwater-national-poll-holds-steady-at-a-50-50-tie-between-labor-and-the-coalition-as-trump-set-for-big-win-in-iowa-caucus-220286">mid-January Freshwater poll</a> for The Daily Telegraph. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one since January), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (steady) and 17% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>Freshwater has been Labor’s worst pollster this term, while Resolve has been its best. Results from Freshwater, Newspoll and Resolve are now closer together than previously.</p>
<p>Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 42–38 (47–38 in January). In comparisons with the December poll, Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -7, while Dutton’s was down seven to -9. Barnaby <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-approval-rating-among-voters-sinks-like-a-stone-20240218-p5f5tp">Joyce’s net approval</a> crashed 16 points to -33.</p>
<p>By 44–15, voters supported the changes to the stage three tax cuts, with 26% “indifferent”. By 32–12, voters thought they would be better off under the changes, with 43% saying there would be no difference.</p>
<p>The cost of living is still the top issue for voters, with 69% listing it as a priority. The Coalition led Labor as best party to manage cost of living by 34–28. Since December, “crime and social order” jumped eight points to 25% to rank fifth on the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-warn-labor-on-crime-and-social-order-20240218-p5f5ta">list of voters’ priorities</a>.</p>
<p>Net approval of the federal political parties was +1 for the Liberals, -4 for Labor, -7 for the Nationals and -19 for the Greens. Net approval of other prominent Labor ministers was +6 for Penny Wong, -3 for Jim Chalmers, -4 for Tanya Plibersek and -10 for Chris Bowen.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 52.5–47.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9457-federal-voting-intention-february-19-2024">Morgan poll</a>, conducted February 12–18 from a sample of 1,706, Labor led by 52.5–47.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down 0.5), 13% Greens (up one), 4% One Nation (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (steady).</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll has a 50–50 tie</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/polling-shock-battlelines-drawn-as-explosive-new-poll-delivers-boilover-no-one-saw-coming/news-story/d88e3a62df3e949731e1d7e436f294ef">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted February 13 from a sample of 1,743, had Labor and the Liberal National Party tied at 50–50, a one-point gain for Labor since December. This is the first Queensland poll commissioned by The Courier Mail that has not shown a LNP lead since December 2022.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/23/ucomms-50-50-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> reported the primary votes were 37.3% LNP (down 0.7), 34.2% Labor (down 0.2), 12.2% Greens (down 1.1), 7.7% One Nation (up 0.4) and 3.9% Katter’s Australian Party (down 0.1). Respondent preferences were better for Labor than in December.</p>
<p>Labor premier Steven Miles’ ratings were 44.2% positive (up 1.5), 25.2% neutral (down 2.4) and 25.2% negative (down 2.4). LNP leader David Crisafulli’s ratings were 41.7% positive (up 3.9), 31.2% neutral (up 1.0) and 18.7% negative (down 4.1). Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 51–49 (52.2–47.8 in December).</p>
<p>This is the second UComms poll since Miles replaced Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor premier in December. Some of Labor’s poll problems were probably due to Palaszczuk’s unpopularity. But Labor will have been in government for almost ten years by the October election, so there may be an “it’s time” factor.</p>
<h2>Trump wins South Carolina, UK byelections and Indonesian election</h2>
<p>Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (US time), defeating Nikki Haley in her home state by a 59.8–39.5 margin. He is almost certain to seal the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, when 69% of Republican delegates will have been determined. I covered this for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/25/us-south-carolina-republican-primary-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>I covered the two February 15 UK byelections in Conservative-held seats for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/16/uk-by-elections-live-wellingborough-and-kingswood/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Both seats were gained by Labour on massive swings. The next UK general election is likely to be held late this year, with Labour far ahead in national polls. However, Labour was forced to disendorse their candidate for the February 29 Labour-held Rochdale byelection after nominations had closed.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/14/us-new-yorks-third-by-election-and-indonesian-election-live/">covered the February 14 Indonesian election</a>, in which the right-wing Prabowa Subianto won the presidency with an outright majority of the vote, meaning there won’t be a runoff election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of the Dunkley byelection on March 2, Labor takes a hit in key polls, but Anthony Albanese’s personal approval is still ahead of Peter Dutton’s.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240802024-02-21T08:08:50Z2024-02-21T08:08:50ZAnthony Albanese rules out early election – and wishes federal terms were longer<p>Anthony Albanese has said there will be an early budget next year, ruling out a premature election while lamenting the brevity of federal parliamentary terms. </p>
<p>The Prime Minister on Wednesday responded to speculation in some sections of the media about a possible election later this year, after a leaked memo from his chief of staff, Tim Gartrell, referred to going into election year. The memo was announcing the appointment of David Epstein – who has worked in multiple positions for Labor as well as in the private sector – to a senior role in the PM’s office. </p>
<p>Albanese described the speculation as “a bit of a beat up”. </p>
<p>“We expect to have a budget next year in March […] and the term ends in May next year,” he said on the ABC.</p>
<p>He was “absolutely” committed to serving a full term. </p>
<p>Pressed on whether he would wait until May, the final time for the election, Albanese said, “Well, I’ve said that three-year terms are too short, in my view.</p>
<p>"Part of the problem in this country, I think, is that you have the first year after an election and then you have that middle year and then you’re in an election year, which is what we will be in.”</p>
<p>He favoured four-year terms but “it’s been tried twice at referendums and we know that referendums are difficult to carry in this country”.</p>
<p>There was “misinformation”, with people saying “oh, it’ll be terrible, politicians will be here for even longer and it’s a grab for power”. But “it’s actually common sense. Every state and territory has four-year terms, but we don’t federally.”</p>
<p>Epstein will be principal private secretary in the Albanese office.</p>
<p>“It’s a senior person on high level matters,” the Gartrell memo said.
“They identify emerging issues and focus on how they are best managed. </p>
<p>"This is an important role as we enter the election year and David is well-qualified for the role, having worked for Labor in a range of senior roles over five successive governments and opposition.”</p>
<p>The Coalition brought forward the budget before its last two May elections – 2019 and 2022 – as well as using a May budget as a launch pad for the 2016 mid-year election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224080/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anthony Albanese has said there will be an early budget next year which seems to rule out a early election.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239612024-02-20T05:41:16Z2024-02-20T05:41:16ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Antony Green, Kos Samaras and Tim Costello on Dunkley contest<p>The March 2 byelection in the outer suburban Melbourne seat of Dunkley is the third byelection this term but the first in a Labor-held electorate. It has been caused by the death late last year of Peta Murphy, after a long battle with cancer. </p>
<p>Labor’s margin sits at 6.3% in Dunkley, an electorate that has swung between the major parties. </p>
<p>Labor goes into the byelection as the favourite, as it seeks to sell its changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. Most voters will be better off under the new package than they would have under the original version, although there will be some losers. </p>
<p>Labor’s candidate is Jodie Belyea, from Frankston, who has extensive experience working in the not-for-profit sector. The Liberals are fielding the Mayor of Frankston, Nathan Conroy. </p>
<p>To talk about the byelection, we are joined by the ABC’s election analyst Antony Green, Kos Samaras from the RedBridge Group, which has conducted research in Dunkley, and Tim Costello, former CEO of World Vision Australia and a Dunkley resident.</p>
<p>There are several measures of swing that can be used for byelections, and participants often adopt whichever suits them. Green says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The best measure in the end is the average swing of about three and a half to four percent [against a government]. That’s the swing since Federation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How is the government’s recently-announced reworked tax package going down in Dunkley? Drawing on the focus group RedBridge ran this week, Samaras says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>When it comes to the tax cuts announcement made by the Albanese government [it’s] welcomed but [has] not much of an impact in terms of alleviating some of these some of these […] financial problems. […] Their problem is in the hundreds of dollars every week not in the tens.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On voter engagement in Dunkley Samaras finds little interest: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think the overwhelming sense is that they’re sick of getting mail in the letterbox and their YouTube feed being riddled with advertisements, and it’s annoying them. It’s perhaps a message to the political class out there.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a resident observer, Costello says Belyea is </p>
<blockquote>
<p>doing very well, particularly with women. There’s a lot of women in the area who’ve known her work. […] But it’s a big step up to federal politics when you haven’t been involved.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Conroy is </p>
<blockquote>
<p>a very good campaigner. He is very slick and everywhere. And that ‘send Labor a message’ I think is cutting through.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The March 2 byelection in the outer suburban Melbourne seat of Dunkley is a challenge for the government. Labor goes in as the favourite but at a time of high cost of living will it's 6.3 margin be enough?Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222572024-02-04T20:09:51Z2024-02-04T20:09:51ZLabor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-electoral-status-quo-as-voters-back-tax-cuts-but-no-reward-for-labor-on-broken-promise/news-story/73a1403b8c6b4f92dd4cf63b377e526c">Newspoll</a>, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">previous Newspoll</a> in mid-December. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped one point to -9, while Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -13. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/04/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-3/">Poll Bludger</a> has the Newspoll figures.</p>
<p>On the stage three tax cut modifications, 62% thought the government did the right thing by changing the tax cuts to give lower- and middle-income people a greater share, while 29% thought the government should have kept its promise and implemented the tax cuts without changes.</p>
<p>On whether voters would be personally better or worse off under the changes, 38% said they would be better off, 37% about the same and 18% worse off.</p>
<p>Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. His net approval is still well below zero, and hasn’t recovered to its level before the Voice referendum defeat.</p>
<p>In economic news, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">December 2023 quarter inflation report</a> last Wednesday. Headline annual inflation was 4.1%, down from a peak of 7.8% in December 2022. The December quarter inflation was 0.6%, down from 1.2% in the September quarter, and the lowest quarterly inflation since March 2021. Lower inflation should assist Labor.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: 48–46 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">federal Essential poll</a>, conducted January 24–28 from a sample of 1,201, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided (49–46 in December). Labor has led by one-to-three points in all Essential polls since late October. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 7% for all Others (down two) and 5% undecided (steady). Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1752176539029148047">Kevin Bonham said Labor</a> would have about a 53–47 lead in this poll by 2022 election preference flows. Essential’s respondent preferences have favoured the Coalition.</p>
<p>Albanese had a 47–41 <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/30-january-2024">disapproval rating</a> (47–42 in November), while Dutton was at 43–38 disapproval (42–39 previously).</p>
<p>On the stage three tax changes, 47% (up six since November) said they should be revised so they mostly benefit those on low and middle incomes, 22% (up two) go ahead as originally planned, 19% (down three) deferred for those earning over $200,000 and 13% (down three) thought they should be cancelled altogether. I had more on <a href="https://theconversation.com/extra-senators-for-act-and-nt-will-benefit-left-but-increase-malapportionment-218708">these questions in November</a>.</p>
<p>On the Israel-Palestine conflict, 67% (up five since November) said Australia should stay out entirely, 17% (steady) said it should provide active assistance to Israel while 16% (down five) believed Australia should provide active assistance to Palestine.</p>
<p>By 47–12, respondents thought things had improved for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in the past ten years (42–10 in January 2023). On a separate national day to recognise Indigenous Australians, 40% (up seven since January 2023) did not support a separate day, 31% (down two) supported a separate day and keeping Australia Day and 18% (down eight) supported replacing Australia Day.</p>
<p>On the ABC, 39% thought news reporting and comment independent and unbiased, and 39% thought otherwise. On artificial intelligence (AI), 65% thought regulation should be mandatory. On AI opportunities and risks, 45% thought it carries more risk than opportunity, 21% more opportunity than risk and 33% that risk and opportunity are about the same.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and a second Queensland byelection</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9449-federal-voting-intention-january-29-2024">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted January 22–28 from a sample of 1,688, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 31% Labor (down 1.5), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 13% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>I covered the March 16 Queensland state byelection in Inala <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-wins-new-hampshire-primary-and-closes-in-on-republican-nomination-labor-gains-in-australian-polls-221406">last fortnight</a>. A second Queensland byelection will also occur on March 16 after <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">Ipswich West’s</a> Labor member Jim Madden resigned to contest the Ipswich local government elections on March 16. </p>
<p>At the 2020 state election, Labor defeated the Liberal Nationals by a 64.3–35.7 margin in Ipswich West. One Nation had finished second in 2017. While normally a safe Labor seat, One Nation won Ipswich West in 1998 and the LNP in 2012.</p>
<h2>Biden wins 96% in South Carolina Democratic primary</h2>
<p>At Saturday’s United States <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/03/us/elections/results-south-carolina-democratic-primary.html">Democratic presidential primary</a> in South Carolina, Joe Biden won 96.2% of the vote, Marianne Williamson 2.1% and Dean Phillips 1.7%. This result makes it all but certain that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee.</p>
<p>In the Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley nationally by 73.6–17.2 in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo">FiveThirtyEight aggregate</a>. The next important contest is the February 24 Republican primary in South Carolina, Haley’s home state. Trump leads by 61.8–31.7 in <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/">South Carolina polls</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is very likely to effectively seal the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday March 5, when many states vote. By this date, 47.4% of <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/ccad.phtml">Republican delegates</a> to their July nominating convention will have been determined.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While two-party preferred polling is steady, a majority of Australians support Labor’s changes to the stage 3 tax cuts.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218752024-01-24T11:30:34Z2024-01-24T11:30:34ZAlbanese tax plan will give average earner $1500 tax cut – more than double Morrison’s Stage 3<p>A person on the average annual wage of $73,000 will get a tax cut of more than $1500 a year under Labor’s revamped tax policy – more than double the cut they’d have received under the Coalition’s legislated stage 3 plan. </p>
<p>In the government’s dramatic recalibration of stage 3, the proposed tax cut for those earning more than $200,000 will be slashed in half, from around $9000 to more than $4500. </p>
<p>At the other end of the income scale, all taxpayers will get a cut, rather than just those earning more than $45,000 as under the legislated stage 3. </p>
<p>Taxpayers earning less than about $146,000 will get larger tax cuts under the government’s proposed plan compared with the Morrison one, while those earning more than that will get smaller cuts. </p>
<p>Amid political attacks over his broken promise – Anthony Albanese had repeatedly committed to delivering stage 3 as legislated by the Coalition – the Prime Minister will tell the National Press Club on Thursday, “When economic circumstances change, the right thing to do is change your economic policy. That’s what we are doing.” </p>
<p>Treasurer Jim Chalmers told the ABC on Wednesday night: “The many will benefit from this, rather than the few”. </p>
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<p>The policy switch was endorsed at a brief caucus meeting late Wednesday. </p>
<p>“Our plan will more than double the benefit for Australians on the average income,” Albanese says in his Press Club speech, extracts of which were released ahead of delivery. .</p>
<p>“And it will look after low income earners and part-time workers as well.</p>
<p>"So someone working at Australia’s largest employer, Woolworths, earning $40,000 will now get a tax cut of over $650.</p>
<p>"Under Scott Morrison’s plan, they would have got nothing.”</p>
<p>Under the changes, the lowest rate of tax is reduced from 19 cents to 16 cents in the dollar. This will mean people will pay less tax on the first $45,000 they earn. </p>
<p>“This is a significant boost for the take-home pay of Australians on modest incomes and people working part-time,” Albanese says.</p>
<p>“An early educator, or an aged care worker or a cleaner earning $50,000, will receive a tax cut worth $929 a year”.</p>
<p>He says these tax cuts will help parents returning to work, especially women with young children. Business would also be assisted, by the boost in workforce participation. </p>
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<p>Albanese says that with the focus “fairly and squarely […] on middle Australia”, the second tax rate, reducing from 32.5% to 30%, will now apply up to $135,000. </p>
<p>The government is retaining the 37% rate, which is scrapped in the Morrison stage 3 model, and that will now apply from $135,000 instead of $120,000 as at present. The top 45% rate will start from $190,000, up from the present $180,000 but down from the $200,000 legislated for stage 3. </p>
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<p>Albanese says under the new plan a full-time worker earning $100,000 will get a cut of more than $2100 – “over $800 more for middle income earners because of our changes.” </p>
<p>For a family on he average household income – about $130,000 – with one partner earning $80,000 and the other $50,000, their combined tax cut will be more than $2600. This is $1600 more than under stage 3. </p>
<p>Albanese quotes Treasury as saying the government’s change is “broadly revenue neutral, will not add to inflationary pressures and will support labour supply”. </p>
<p>The proposed new rates will start from July 1, when stage 3 was due to begin. The changes will have to be legislated but the government has enough support from the crossbench in the Senate to be confident of passage. </p>
<p>Labor is rolling out an advertising campaign to sell the changes. </p>
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<p>Albanese says in his speech: “This is the right decision for the right reasons – and we’ve made it the right way. It is the best way forward – because it is the best way to help Australians struggling with their cost of living without putting pressure on inflation.” </p>
<p>Chalmers on Thursday will release a Treasury analysis to back up the government’s case. The plan “will be better for middle Australia, better for cost-of-living pressures, better for women and workforce participation, better for nurses and teachers and truckies,” he said. The Treasury analysis would show the plan would be better for the economy, he added. </p>
<p>Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said the Coalition was “absolutely locked down on supporting the stage 3 tax cut”. He called the government’s changes the “mother of all broken promises”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-why-should-we-still-be-surprised-when-a-pm-doesnt-keep-his-word-221860">View from The Hill: Why should we still be surprised when a PM doesn't keep his word?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the government’s dramatic recalibration of stage 3 all taxpayers will get a cut, rather than just those earning more than $45,000.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202862024-01-15T02:13:08Z2024-01-15T02:13:08ZFreshwater national poll holds steady at a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus<p>A national <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/shock-poll-we-dont-trust-albo-to-help-us-with-costs-of-living/news-story/e8b7e7b39bedcd2e4c8d14746d6c0a50">Freshwater poll</a> for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">Freshwater poll for The Financial Review</a> in mid-December.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/15/freshwater-strategy-50-50-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that primary votes were 39% Coalition (steady since December), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 15% for all Others (down one). This poll was conducted January 10–11 from a sample of 1,007.</p>
<p>Freshwater has had better results for the Coalition than other polls, so Labor would probably have led if there was a Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton by 47–38 as preferred PM (43–39 in December). On Labor’s target to achieve 82% renewables by 2030, 51% said it would mean higher energy costs while 16% thought their bills would be reduced. On the cost of living, 81% said Labor had not done enough and 68% said they would not do enough in the next six months.</p>
<h2>Morgan polls, Resolve likeability and Newspoll aggregate data</h2>
<p>In my last polls article I reported that Labor led by 51–49 in the Morgan poll conducted December 4–10. In the Morgan poll <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9418-federal-voting-intention-december-17-2023">conducted December 11–17</a> there was a 50–50 tie. In <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9419-federal-voting-intention-january-8-2024">the poll conducted</a> January 2–7 from a sample of 1,716, the Coalition led by 51–49. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one since mid-December), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 14% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Nine newspapers released <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wong-tops-list-of-popular-politicians-and-a-former-hero-now-comes-last-20231227-p5ett8.html">likeability ratings for various politicians</a> from the early December federal Resolve poll on December 28. The most popular politicians were Foreign Minister Penny Wong (net +14 likeability), Tasmanian independent senator Jacqui Lambie (net +10), Nationals senator Jacinta Price (net +6), ACT independent senator David Pocock (net +5) and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek (net +2).</p>
<p>The most unpopular politicians were former PM Scott Morrison (net -35), ex-Greens senator Lidia Thorpe (net -29), former deputy PM Barnaby Joyce (net -27) and Pauline Hanson (net -25).</p>
<p>Albanese had a net -3 likeability, much better than his <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">net approval</a> of -11 in the same poll, while Dutton’s net likeability was -12 (-8 net approval). Greens leader Adam Bandt was at -10 net likeability while Treasurer Jim Chalmers was at net zero.</p>
<p>Newspoll aggregate data for its three federal polls conducted from early November to mid-December was released on December 27. The overall sample was 3,655. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">previous aggregate data</a>, from Newspolls conducted before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. In this release, Labor’s overall lead was down to 52–48.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/27/newspoll-aggregates-october-to-december-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> said Labor’s lead or deficit in the various states was close to the margins at the 2022 federal election. Labor led by 51–49 in New South Wales, 55–45 in Victoria, 54–46 in Western Australia and 55–45 in South Australia. Queensland was the only state with a Coalition lead, by 54–46.</p>
<h2>Trump set for big win in Iowa Republican caucus</h2>
<p>The Iowa Republican caucus is the first <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/events.phtml?s=c&f=m">presidential nominating contest</a> of 2024, and it will occur Tuesday AEDT. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/">FiveThirtyEight</a> aggregate of Iowa polls, Donald Trump has 51.3%, Nikki Haley 17.3% and Ron DeSantis 16.1%. The next contest is the New Hampshire primary on January 23, where Trump is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">being challenged</a> by Haley.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-elections-2024-a-biden-vs-trump-rematch-is-very-likely-with-trump-leading-biden-219093">US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden</a>
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<p>I covered the Taiwan presidential election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/13/taiwan-presidential-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday, in which the centre-left and pro-independence candidate won with 40.1% of the vote (first past the post was used). Three US and UK byelections that are to be held from February 13–15 were also covered.</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll: 51–49 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/ucomms-poll-steven-miless-ascension-makes-little-difference-to-labor-fortunes/news-story/13ff4bb2973e0ac46e941cf182f754f6">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted December 21–22 from a sample of 1,911, gave the Liberal National Party a 51–49 lead, from primary votes of 36.2% LNP and 34.4% Labor, with no other parties’ votes released. LNP leader David Crisafulli led new Labor premier Steven Miles by 52.2–47.8 as preferred premier.</p>
<p>An October <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">YouGov Queensland poll</a> gave the LNP a 52–48 lead, and a September to December <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">Resolve poll</a> implied a 50–50 tie, but Resolve has been much better for Labor federally than other polls.</p>
<h2>Victorian Redbridge poll: Labor has large lead</h2>
<p>A Victorian state <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a>, conducted December 2–12 from a sample of 2,026, gave Labor a 55.9–44.1 lead, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since a <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Vic-votes-survey-Sept-2023.pdf">September Redbridge poll</a>. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 36% Coalition (up two), 13% Greens (steady) and 14% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Voters were asked their ratings of political leaders on a five-point scale, with 3 being neither approve nor disapprove. Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at net -6, Liberal leader John Pesutto at net -13, Nationals leader Peter Walsh at net -15 and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at net -21.</p>
<p>On the main impact of protests over the Israel-Gaza war, 30% thought they had threatened the safety of Jewish and Palestinian Australians, 21% raised awareness of the conflict and 19% pressured the Australian government to call for an end.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian YouGov poll: Lambie Network has 20%</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">Tasmanian state YouGov poll</a>, conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850, gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%. Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two party preferred is not applicable.</p>
<p>If this were the election result, the JLN would hold the balance of power. By 53–26, voters thought it was time to give someone else a go over the Liberals deserving to be re-elected. A November <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">EMRS Tasmanian poll</a> had 39% Liberals, 29% Labor, 12% Greens and 19% for all Others with no JLN option.</p>
<h2>Lawler replaces Fyles as NT chief minister</h2>
<p>Eva Lawler <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-20/eva-lawler-next-northern-territory-chief-minister/103252794">replaced Natasha Fyles</a> as Labor’s Northern Territory chief minister on December 21. Fyles had resigned two days prior owing to conflict of interest allegations, and Lawler was unanimously elected by Labor MPs. Fyles will continue as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natasha_Fyles">Member for Nightcliff</a>, so there won’t be a byelection.</p>
<p>This is the second change in NT chief minister this term after Fyles replaced Michael Gunner in May 2022. The next NT election is in August, and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">November Redbridge poll</a> had Labor well behind the opposition Country Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The summer break hasn’t changed the Freshwater polling figures for the two major parties federally. Overseas, the former US President is in a strong position ahead of the Iowa caucus.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200502024-01-08T19:17:52Z2024-01-08T19:17:52ZAs Australia’s net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need<p>Australia is not rolling out clean energy projects nearly fast enough to reach the Australian government’s target of 82% renewable electricity by 2030. A <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-06/australia-likely-to-fall-short-of-82pc-renewable-energy-target/102689392">huge build</a> of solar and wind farms, transmission lines and big batteries is needed. But progress is challenged by the scale required, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">community resistance to new infrastructure</a> and connecting all that new renewable electricity to the grid.</p>
<p>In the latest obstacle to expanding renewable energy capacity in the longer term, federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/plibersek-delivers-massive-blow-to-victorian-wind-hub-20240108-p5evqq">knocked back</a> a plan by the Victorian government to build a sea terminal to service offshore wind farms, saying it posed “clearly unacceptable” environmental risks.</p>
<p>The roadblocks facing large projects present an opportunity to ramp up the contribution of small-scale technologies in the energy transition. Recently, federal and state energy ministers agreed on the need for <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/energy-ministers-identify-key-areas-to-reinvigorate-australias-energy-transformation">a national roadmap</a> and a co-ordinated approach to integrating into the grid what they call <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/ministers-put-consumer-energy-on-agenda-is-this-a-turning-point-or-groundhog-day/amp/">“consumer energy resources”</a> (CER), which include batteries, electric vehicles and rooftop solar.</p>
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<p>More than <a href="https://apvi.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/National-Survey-Report-of-PV-Power-Applications-in-AUSTRALIA-2022.pdf">one in three</a> Australian houses have solar panels on their roofs. Australia <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-31/how-rooftop-solar-panels-transformed-energy-in-australia/102987100">leads the world</a> in rooftop solar per head. During the past year these systems generated <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2023-04/apo-nid322455.pdf">close to 10%</a> of our electricity. Several times over the past few months, they even provided enough electricity to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-solar-meets-all-of-south-australia-demand-in-major-new-milestone/">briefly meet all</a> South Australia’s electricity demand.</p>
<p>And the technology still has great potential to grow: although installed capacity has doubled in the last four years, these systems cover only about 10% of <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/insights/market-reports/how-much-rooftop-solar-can-be-installed-in-australia/">Australia’s estimated usable roof area</a>. So, how large a share of our electricity needs might rooftop solar provide? The answers are not simple.</p>
<h2>Why rooftop solar presents a challenge for the grid</h2>
<p>In electricity systems, demand and supply must be balanced at all times. The <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en">Australian Energy Market Operator</a> (AEMO) runs the grid and keeps it secure to avoid blackouts in case of unexpected events such as the sudden disconnection of a transmission line. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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<p>To meet demand, every five minutes AEMO dispatches electricity from large-scale generators such as coal-fired power stations or large solar farms. As the grid operator, AEMO must also procure reserve capacity to balance any differences in demand and maintain security.</p>
<p>But AEMO does not dispatch power from rooftop solar, which is either used on site, or flows into the grid independently of AEMO’s control. This isn’t usually a problem, since AEMO keeps the grid balanced by forecasting how much rooftop solar is being generated.</p>
<p>However, if rooftop solar generates the majority of power in a particular region, there may not be enough dispatchable generation and reserves online to keep the grid balanced and secure. Grid security can also be challenged when <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/initiatives/major-programs/nem-distributed-energy-resources-der-program/operations/der-behaviour-during-disturbances">unexpected events</a> trigger the safety settings of rooftop solar systems and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114283">cause them to disconnect</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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<p>The other big issue for grid balance is that the network businesses that manage the poles, wires and other infrastructure connecting generators to homes and businesses need to ensure that voltages remain <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341931377_Voltage_Analysis_of_the_LV_Distribution_Network_in_the_Australian_National_Electricity_Market_Available_at_httpsprod-energycouncilenergyslicedtechcomaulv-voltage-report">within defined technical limits</a> to avoid damaging equipment or appliances. When solar generates a lot of power at a time of low electricity demand, voltage can exceed the upper operational limit. Voltage can also go below the lower operational limit when too many people connect big appliances like air-conditioners. </p>
<p>So how are we managing the three challenges of rooftop solar: lack of controllability by the market operator, uncertain behaviour during unexpected grid events and impact on network voltage?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-growth-or-degrowth-what-is-the-right-way-to-tackle-climate-change-218239">Green growth or degrowth: what is the right way to tackle climate change?</a>
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<h2>Ways to manage and expand rooftop solar</h2>
<p>Current Australian standards require solar to automatically disconnect when voltage gets too high. Network businesses also pre-emptively manage this problem by preventing customers in areas where voltage is an issue from connecting solar to the grid, or by limiting the size of solar systems they can connect or the amount of electricity they can export to the grid at any time. But this approach is potentially unfair to those customers who can’t connect or export.</p>
<p>The good news is that standards introduced in 2020 provide more sophisticated ways of managing solar through <a href="https://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/CANVAS-Succinct-Final-Report_11.11.21.pdf">more gradual voltage response</a>, and by requiring systems to ride through major disturbances rather than disconnecting. Some networks have also developed <a href="https://www.sapowernetworks.com.au/your-power/smarter-energy/flexible-exports/fixed-v-flexible/">solar-friendly ways</a> to cut off surplus output “dynamically”, meaning only at times when they have to.</p>
<p>Thanks to these measures, solar customers face less constraint on exporting power to the grid. However, since solar sometimes now supplies most of the generation in South Australia, AEMO has also <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/learn/fact-sheets/pv-rooftop-solar-consumer-fact-sheet.pdf">tested disconnection of solar</a> to increase its control of the grid in case of threats to system security.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<p>Some of these solar management tools are still quite blunt and <a href="https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/solar-switch-off-how-aemo-took-control-of-rooftop-pv-and-why-it-didnt-need-to/">some commentators</a> worry they will be overused. While necessary in the short-term, if unchecked they will reduce our ability to realise our rooftop solar potential.</p>
<h2>Getting smarter about when we use power</h2>
<p>There is another way to use our solar systems more effectively: we can shift energy use to times when the sun is shining, and store energy – in batteries, electric vehicles and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/electric-hot-water-is-a-hero-of-flexible-demand-where-does-it-stand-in-the-age-of-rooftop-solar/">hot water tanks</a> – <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/saturation-der-modelling-shows-distributed-energy-and-storage-could-lower-costs-all">to use when it is not</a>.</p>
<p>To make such a change, consumer electricity prices are a potential lever. Solar customers already have an incentive to use electricity from their own rooftop systems, because they pay more for grid electricity than they are paid to sell solar back to the grid.</p>
<p>South Australia and some other network areas <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/Ausgrid%20-%20Att.%208.1%20-%20Tariff%20Structure%20Statement%20compliance%20paper%20%20-%2031%20Jan%202023%20-%20Public.pdf">are introducing</a> low “solar soak” rates to encourage all customers to use electricity in high solar times, such as the middle of the day. Times of plentiful solar also tend to be the <a href="https://opennem.org.au/">cheapest times to buy wholesale electricity from the grid</a>, and innovative retailers like <a href="https://www.amber.com.au/">Amber Electric</a> are passing through these price signals to customers.</p>
<p>However, typical retail plans offered to customers don’t provide much incentive to change patterns of electricity use, especially since many customers are understandably not focused on their electricity bills or <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368464625_Engaging_households_in_electricity_flexibility_-_insights_from_the_UK">cannot easily shift</a> their power use.</p>
<p>In these cases orchestration schemes, often called “virtual power plants,” are an option. Under the schemes, a business will <a href="https://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/publication/rewarding-residential-electricity-flexibility-customer-friendly-cost-reflective-tariffs">reward household customers</a> that allow it to operate their rooftop solar, batteries, appliances, electric vehicles and hot water systems in ways that reduce costs or grid impacts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Better management of electricity use through these schemes can make room for the grid to take on more solar.</p>
<p>Recent trials in Western Australia (<a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/announcements/project-symphony-paving-the-way-our-brighter-energy-future">Project Symphony</a>) and Victoria (<a href="https://aemo.com.au/initiatives/major-programs/nem-distributed-energy-resources-der-program/der-demonstrations/project-edge/project-edge-reports">Project EDGE</a>) prove orchestration can work. Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629621003030?via%3Dihub">people will need good reasons</a> to hand over control of their solar, batteries and appliances, particularly if they bought expensive equipment such as batteries <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003018?via%3Dihub">for back-up power or to increase their energy independence</a>.</p>
<p>It would be a major setback to the net zero transition if AEMO and network businesses, lacking better options for managing the grid, continue to cut back and switch off solar systems until people find it unattractive to purchase them.</p>
<p>The new <a href="https://switchedon.reneweconomy.com.au/content/finally-a-national-roadmap-for-decarbonising-homes-and-communities">CER roadmap</a> needs to provide clear guidance on how AEMO and network businesses can manage rooftop solar, and other technologies such as batteries and EVs. Good governance arrangements and meaningful stakeholder consultation are essential if Australia is to maintain the momentum of its people-powered energy transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220050/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Bruce receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Race for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water. She is a member of the Executive Committee of the Australian PV Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Baran Yildiz receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Australia. Baran is a member of International Energy Agency (IEA) Solar Heating & Cooling Programme Task 69.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Alexander receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre. Dani previously was the Business Program Leader for the RACE for 2030 CRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Roberts receives funding from the Race for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre, the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water, and Essential Energy. He is a former director of the Australian PV Institute.</span></em></p>Australia leads the world in rooftop solar per head. Can this small-scale power source be the secret weapon to fire up our struggling transition to net zero?Anna Bruce, Associate Professor in the Collaboration on Energy and Environmental Markets and the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyBaran Yildiz, Senior Research Associate, UNSW SydneyDani Alexander, CEO, UNSW Energy Institute, UNSW SydneyMike Roberts, Senior Research Fellow in the Collaboration on Energy and Environmental Markets and the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194042023-12-18T03:53:23Z2023-12-18T03:53:23ZLabor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albanese-a-drag-on-labors-recovery/news-story/05ded91a0aaebd8e88c3a1c507ff97ea">Newspoll</a>, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 50% dissatisfied (down three) and 42% satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -8, up five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved four points to -9. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35.</p>
<p>The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since late 2022. While his net approval in this Newspoll is a recovery, he’s still well below net zero.</p>
<p>In my coverage of the previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">Newspoll</a>, I said other polls conducted at about the same time had narrow Labor leads, with Morgan giving the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead.</p>
<p>The polling now suggests Labor’s lead is increasing slightly. This may be explained by an improvement in economic sentiment. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9380-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-12">consumer confidence index</a> was up 4.4 points last week to 80.8, the highest it has been since February.</p>
<h2>Freshwater poll tied at 50–50</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-loses-lead-pm-s-ratings-slump-poll-20231217-p5es0f">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted December 15–17 from a sample of 1,109, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since September. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up two), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/17/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said Freshwater polls have been two or three points worse for Labor than the nearest Newspoll. This poll is better for Labor if Freshwater’s pro-Coalition lean is accounted for.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down two to -5, while Dutton’s was up eight to -2. Albanese led Dutton by 43–39 as preferred PM (46–37 in September). The Liberals had a net +3 approval, while Labor’s was -3 and the Greens were -16. Jacinta Price’s net approval was +7, Penny Wong’s was +5 and Barnaby Joyce’s was -17.</p>
<p>On issue salience, there was a six-point drop in cost of living to 71% and an eight-point rise in immigration to 13% (but this is only the eighth most important issue). The Coalition led Labor by five points on cost of living, up from one point in September. On immigration, the Coalition led by 13 points, up from five.</p>
<h2>YouGov poll: Greens gain at Labor’s expense</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48095-latest-yougov-poll-labors-primary-vote-is-the-lowest-since-1901">YouGov national poll</a>, conducted December 1–5 from a sample of 1,555, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous YouGov poll in mid-November. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/08/yougov-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said this is Labor’s lowest primary vote in any poll since the last election. If repeated at an election, it would be Labor’s lowest since the first federal election in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1901_Australian_federal_election">1901</a>.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval slumped nine points to -16, while Dutton’s net approval was down two to -9. Albanese led Dutton by 46–36 as preferred PM, with this ten-point margin down from 14 previously.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor’s lead increases</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted December 6–10 from a sample of 1,102, Labor led by 49–46 including undecided, out from 48–47 three weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>Voters were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-december-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–32 negative (35–33 in November). Dutton was at 37–28 negative (35–32 previously).</p>
<p>Big businesses and the government were thought to have too much power, while individuals, workers and small business were thought to not have enough. The most important issues voters wanted the government to address were energy prices, housing affordability and grocery prices.</p>
<p>Trust in various institutions has taken a double digit hit across the board since this question was last asked in September 2022.</p>
<p>Asked whether 2023 had been a good or bad year for various entities, the only one voter thought had had a better 2023 than 2022 were large companies and corporations (up ten points on net good to +36). There was a 22-point slump in “your personal financial situation” to -27 and a 14-point slump in the Australian economy to -41.</p>
<p>On what happened in 2023 relative to expectations at the beginning of the year, 49% said it had been worse than expected, 34% as expected and 13% better than expected. For 2024, 32% said it would be worse than 2023, 30% no different and 24% better.</p>
<h2>Redbridge poll, Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a> conducted December 6–11 from a sample of 2,010, gave Labor a 52.8–47.2 lead, a 0.7-point gain for the Coalition since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">previous Redbridge poll</a> in early November. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 19% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>By 53–33, voters thought Labor was not focused on the right priorities (50–36 in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November</a>). By 47–33, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government (50–30 previously).</p>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-december-2023">Morgan poll</a>, conducted December 4–10 from a sample of 1,719, Labor led by 51–49, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (down one) and 6% others (up two).</p>
<p>I covered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">federal Resolve poll</a> two weeks ago that still gave Labor a large lead. Voters were <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-want-migration-intake-cut-as-albanese-pledges-return-to-sustainable-levels-20231207-p5epxl.html">told net migration</a> to Australia was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels during the pandemic. To make up for this, it increased to 184,000 last year and was over 400,000 this year.</p>
<p>On this level of immigration, 62% thought it too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. On next year’s expected 260,000 net migration, 55% said too high, 25% about right and 5% too low. By 57–16, voters thought the government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way rather than a carefully planned and managed way.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor far ahead</h2>
<p>A Victorian <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/support-for-allan-dips-but-labor-holds-strong-lead-over-coalition-20231208-p5eq38.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of 1,093, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 31% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (up four) and others 6% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1733264329775186073">Kevin Bonham estimated</a> a Labor lead by 56.5–43.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition since October. Resolve’s federal polls have been far better for Labor than other polls.</p>
<p>New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s lead as preferred premier over Liberal leader John Pesutto narrowed to 34–22 from 38–19 in October. By 57–22, voters thought students should attend school and protest outside school time, rather than miss school for rallies.</p>
<h2>Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns</h2>
<p>On December 10, Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/annastacia-palaszczuk-resigning-as-queensland-premier/103211112">announced she would resign</a> as premier at the end of last week, and as Member for Inala by the end of this year. A byelection will be needed in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/inal">Inala</a>, which Palaszczuk won by 78.2–21.8 against the Liberal Nationals in 2020. </p>
<p>Steven Miles replaced Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier last Friday after he was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-15/labor-caucus-endorses-steven-miles-as-queensland-premier/103227896">elected unopposed</a> by Labor MPs.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk has been premier since leading Labor to a surprise victory at the 2015 state election, but she has become increasingly unpopular. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">wrote two weeks ago</a> that Labor is likely to lose the next election due in October 2024.</p>
<h2>WA Redbridge poll: Labor has huge lead</h2>
<p>The next Western Australian state election is in March 2025. A Redbridge poll was reported by <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/wa-state-round-up-redbridge-poll-and-preselections-a-z/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday. It gave Labor a 59.4–40.6 lead, from primary votes of 44% Labor, 29% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 11% Greens, 3% One Nation and 9% for all Others. This would be a 10% swing to the Liberals from the record 2021 Labor landslide, but it’s still a huge lead for Labor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/weekend-miscellany-redbridge-wa-polling-trusted-politicians-senate-vacancies-and-more-open-thread/">federal WA Redbridge poll</a> gave Labor a 55.2–44.8 lead, unchanged from the 2922 federal WA result of 55.0–45.0 to Labor. The sample size was 1,200.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polling suggests Labor’s position might be improving slightly, perhaps due to increased optimism about the state of the economy.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190122023-12-05T23:08:24Z2023-12-05T23:08:24ZLabor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November article on Resolve</a>, I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">week’s Newspoll</a> had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-peter-dutton-is-winning-the-border-wars-against-anthony-albanese-20231204-p5eops.html">Anthony Albanese’s performance</a>, 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).</p>
<p>Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).</p>
<p>By 43–18, voters supported the government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-voters-back-plan-to-rein-in-ndis-costs-20231204-p5eovf.html">limiting spending growth on the NDIS</a> to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9416-federal-voting-intention-december-3-2023">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).</p>
<p>Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-peta-murphy-dies-aged-50-20231204-p5eov4.html">died from breast cancer</a> on Monday. In <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm">2022</a>, Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.</p>
<h2>It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/support-for-labor-steadies-despite-dip-in-palaszczuk-s-popularity-20231205-p5ep30.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/05/resolve-strategic-lnp-37-labor-33-greens-12-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">Queensland YouGov poll</a>, in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).</p>
<p>It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/shannon-fentiman-denies-she-has-been-approached-to-replace-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/3abf1b67a095ab4b383689b1f1677005">recent speculation</a> that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.</p>
<h2>Tasmania, WA and the NT</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/6567dd27d6227f53ebff4ac0/1701305655222/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+November+2023.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.</p>
<p>In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).</p>
<p>The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/01/western-australian-state-redistribution-finalised/">Poll Bludger</a> said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.</p>
<p>Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">2021 WA election</a>, in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Northern-Territory-Social-Services-11.pdf">Redbridge Northern Territory poll</a>, conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.</p>
<p>If these results were replicated at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Northern_Territory_general_election">next NT election</a> in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the latest poll gives the Labor government a comfortable lead, this is not supported by other polls.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182482023-11-26T22:32:39Z2023-11-26T22:32:39ZLabor loses four points in two Newspolls to slump to a 50–50 tie<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-voters-abandon-anthony-albanese-as-labors-fortunes-nosedive/news-story/75db97702fe93193b9fec4af9c421caa">Newspoll</a>, conducted November 20–24 from a sample of 1,216, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down four), 13% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>In the final Newspoll taken before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. Three weeks ago, Labor’s lead had dropped to 52–48 and now it’s tied. This is the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">first time Labor has not led</a> in Newspoll since June 2021.</p>
<p>Movements on leaders’ ratings were relatively modest, with Anthony Albanese’s satisfied rating down two to 40% and his dissatisfied rating up one to 53%, for a net approval of -13, down three points. Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term.</p>
<p>Peter Dutton’s net approval was steady at -13, so Albanese and Dutton are now tied on net approval. Albanese slightly extended his better PM lead to 46–35 from 46–36 three weeks ago.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labor-barely-ahead-in-latest-polls-victorian-labor-takes-a-hit-but-holds-mulgrave-at-byelection-217667">wrote on November 19</a> that three polls on average had Labor just ahead, with the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates at its early November meeting probably causing Labor’s drop. This Newspoll is a continuation of that trend to the Coalition.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval has now been in the negative double digits for two Newspolls in a row. The net approval of the PM has been correlated with voting intentions in the past, so Albanese appears to be dragging down Labor’s vote.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll has Coalition ahead</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-shows-third-straight-weekly-decline-for-the-alp-government-alp-49-5-cf-l-np-50-5">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 13–19 from a sample of 1,401, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up one), 29.5% Labor (down 0.5), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 6.5% One Nation (up 0.5), 7% independents (down one) and 6% others (down 0.5).</p>
<p>This is the second Morgan poll that has had the Coalition ahead, after one <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">conducted in the week</a> after the Voice referendum. However, in that earlier poll, 2022 election preference flows would have given Labor above a 53–47 lead, while applying 2022 preference flows to this poll gives Labor just a 50.5–49.5 lead.</p>
<p>Morgan and Essential federal polls, which both use respondent preferences, have generally shown weaker results for Labor in the last few months than if they used 2022 election flows. It’s plausible that One Nation and others’ preferences have become better for the Coalition since the last election. </p>
<p>The July <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">Fadden federal byelection</a> gives some evidence for an improvement for the Coalition on preference flows from One Nation voters.</p>
<h2>Wage rises are good economic data for Labor</h2>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on November 15 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/sep-2023">that wages increased</a> 1.3% in the September quarter for an annual growth of 4.0%. This annual growth is the highest since 2009, and has surged from a low of 1.3% in 2020 owing to the COVID lockdowns.</p>
<p>Before COVID, wages had been growing at about 2% annually since 2014. For the September quarter, the wage increase <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">beat inflation</a> by 0.1%, although it’s 1.4% behind inflation for the 12 months to September.</p>
<p>If wage increases at the current levels are sustained, Labor should benefit at the next election. But inflation and interest rates may need to drop before people start feeling more optimistic about the economy.</p>
<h2>Far-right Javier Milei wins Argentine presidency</h2>
<p>I covered the November 19 Argentine presidential runoff election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/19/argentine-presidential-runoff-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The far-right Javier Milei defeated the centre-left Sergio Massa by a 55.7–44.3 margin. But the left still controls the Argentine Senate, though the combined right has a majority in the lower house.</p>
<p>Joe Biden turned 81 on November 20, and I believe US Democrats should consider replacing him as their presidential nominee owing to his age and unpopularity. The Spanish Socialists formed a government four months after the Spanish election.</p>
<p>A new government was formed in New Zealand on Friday after National, ACT and NZ First reached an agreement. I covered a NZ byelection for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/25/nz-port-waikato-by-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday that National won easily. In last Wednesday’s Dutch election, the far-right Party of Freedom won the most seats but is well short of a majority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor government’s once-healthy lead has crashed since the October referendum.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181152023-11-20T02:39:04Z2023-11-20T02:39:04ZView from The Hill: Albanese should come clean about what he did or didn’t say to Xi Jinping about sonar incident<p>The incident last Tuesday in which Australian sailors suffered minor injuries from sonar pulses from a Chinese destroyer couldn’t have come at a worse time for Anthony Albanese. </p>
<p>He’d just finished a very successful trip to Beijing. He was about to again meet President Xi Jinping at APEC in the United States late in the week. The incident was potentially serious in terms of unsettled a much improved relationship. </p>
<p>The HMAS Toowoomba’s sailors had been undertaking the harmless task of unravelling fishing nets from around the ship’s propellers. The vessel was in international waters inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone on its way to a port. It had been supporting United Nations sanctions against North Korea. </p>
<p>The Chinese destroyer had been warned about the divers, but acted anyway. </p>
<p>There were two issues for Albanese: whether to raise the matter with Xi (assuming the President didn’t bring it up) and whether to indicate publicly he had done so. </p>
<p>We don’t know whether he raised it, because his office and ministerial colleagues won’t answer this question. There has been no opportunity to question him since his return at the weekend. </p>
<p>It seems obvious he should have discussed the matter with Xi. He has repeated endlessly that “we will disagree when we must” with China. </p>
<p>Not to canvass the incident would be a cop-out from this formula. It would carry the message that Australia, having established more positive relations with China – to the great benefit of our trade – was now unwilling to be forthright because it did not want to risk setting things back. </p>
<p>The Australian government was careful not to announce the incident until after Albanese was on his way home. The timing was diplomatic. </p>
<p>Then-Acting Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles said in a statement on Saturday the government had expressed “serious concerns” to the Chinese government, and described the Chinese vessel’s conduct as “unsafe and unprofessional”. </p>
<p>If Albanese did raise the incident, why not say so? Again, only to avoid offending the Chinese and that’s unacceptable. </p>
<p>The government points to Marles’s statement and claims that meant the matter was dealt with at the appropriate level. </p>
<p>This might be convincing if it hadn’t been for the fact Albanese was actually meeting Xi. </p>
<p>The silence is also being defended on the basis of this being a private meeting. This won’t wash either. When the PM and President met in Beijing Albanese gave a very detailed read-out of the encounter, even down to the jokes. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1726382463315054685"}"></div></p>
<p>On Monday morning Albanese tweeted a picture showing he was back working with the team. Members of that team appearing in the media have been left intoning the unconvincing talking points. </p>
<p>Albanese should clarify whether he or not he talked about the incident – not just in the name of transparency but to demonstrate that the government’s China policy is as robust as he says. Not to mention that it would be of passing interest to know what the President said, if the matter was in fact one of the topics of their discussion. </p>
<h2>UPDATE Albanese says he’s ‘very concerned’ by incident but remains mum about Xi meeting</h2>
<p>The Prime Minister went on Sky on Monday afternoon to criticise the Chinese action but remained silent about whether it had been discussed in the Xi meeting.</p>
<p>He said the action by the Chinese ship was dangerous, unsafe and unprofessional, and one Australian sailor had been injured. It was a regrettable incident. He said this was one of those times when Australia disagreed with China; the event damaged the relationship.</p>
<p>Australia had raised its strong objections to China “very clearly, very directly, through all of the appropriate channels in all the forums that are available”. </p>
<p>But he declined to confirm or deny raising it with Xi, on the grounds he does not divulge private conversations that take place on the sidelines of a conference.</p>
<p>“We’ve raised it very clearly through all of the normal channels”. </p>
<p>“When I was in San Francisco, there was no bilateral meeting with President Xi where you give a readout […] I don’t talk about private meetings on the sidelines, discussions I have with any world leader. That’s how you keep communications open. But I can assure you that we raised these issues in the appropriate way and very clearly, unequivocally. And China – there’s no misunderstanding as to Australia’s view on this.” </p>
<p>Albanese said he always spoke up for Australia’s national interest. “I do so directly,” he said, stressing he did so respectfully, not talking about private conversations. </p>
<p>At a news conference while at APEC Albanese said of the meeting with Xi: “I reiterated to him that it was a very positive visit [to Beijing] that was well received in Australia. And I reiterated to him that the signal that the impediments to trade between our two nations were reducing and being removed, was received positively in Australia.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many are asking whether Prime Minister Anthony Albanese raised with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Australian sailors have been injured by sonar pulses from a Chinese destroyer.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176672023-11-19T05:35:07Z2023-11-19T05:35:07ZFederal Labor barely ahead in latest polls; Victorian Labor takes a hit but holds Mulgrave at byelection<p>There have been three federal polls since my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">October 13 article</a> on the federal Resolve poll that still had Labor far ahead. These polls show a tie in Morgan and two two-point Labor leads in YouGov and Essential. There has been a clear trend to the Coalition in polls conducted since the October 14 Voice referendum.</p>
<p>YouGov hasn’t conducted Newspoll since mid-July, but is publishing its own polls now. The final <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">YouGov Voice poll</a> was accurate, giving “no” an 18-point lead (actual margin: 20.1 points).</p>
<p>The latest federal <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/47889-latest-yougov-poll-labor-narrowly-leads-the-coalition-by-51-to-49">YouGov poll</a>, conducted November 10–14 from a sample of 1,582, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since early October. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 13% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped four points to -7, while Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -7. Albanese led Dutton by 48–34 as preferred PM (50–34 <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-voice-polls-have-no-leading-by-sizeable-to-landslide-margins-215264">previously</a>).</p>
<p>On November 7, the Reserve Bank <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">raised interest rates</a> by 0.25% to 4.35%. This increase appears to have contributed to Labor’s poll slump, with <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9360-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-november-14">Morgan’s consumer confidence index</a> down 3.5 points to 74.3 last week, its lowest since mid-July and continuing a record run of 41 weeks below 85.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor just ahead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted November 8–12 from a sample of 1,150, gave Labor a 49–47 lead including undecided (48–46 in late October). Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>This is the second Essential poll to be conducted since they <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology">changed their methods</a> to include weighting by educational level. The gain for the Greens implies Labor should be further ahead, but received a weak flow of respondent allocated preferences.</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/14-november-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese had a 35–33 negative rating, reversing a 37–29 positive rating in August. Dutton was at 35–32 negative (35–27 negative in August).</p>
<p>On bushfires, 44% thought this season would be worse than last summer, 10% better and 46% about the same. Asked to compare to the summer of 2019–20, it was 31% worse, 19% better and 50% about the same. By 53–31, voters thought our bushfires are made worse by climate change over having nothing to do with climate change.</p>
<p>On interest rates, 52% (down 11 since June) thought they would continue to rise, 39% (up nine) thought we have reached the peak but they won’t go down for a while and 9% (up two) thought they would start to fall soon. By 49–15, voters thought rising interest rates had had a negative personal impact over a positive one (51–17 in February).</p>
<p>By 46–34, voters thought immigration to Australia was generally positive (50–35 in April 2019).</p>
<p>On the Israel-Gaza conflict, 21% (up eight since October) thought Australia should provide active assistance to Palestine, 17% (down six) assist Israel and 62% (down two) stay out. On tensions between the US and China, 27% said we should support the US, 6% China and 67% stay as neutral as possible.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 50–50 tie</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">weekly Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 6–12 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9534-roy-morgan-update-november-14-2023">sample</a> of 1,397, there was a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition, 30% Labor, 13% Greens and 20.5% for all Others.</p>
<p>In a separate <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/australians-are-evenly-divided-on-whether-israel-should-withdraw-their-armed-forces-from-gaza-immediately-or-not">national Morgan SMS</a> poll, conducted November 9–12 from a sample of 1,650, 51% said Israel should withdraw their armed forces from Gaza immediately, while 49% said they should not. </p>
<p>By political support, 93% of Greens favoured immediate withdrawal, 64% of Labor voters and 75% of independents. However, 75% of Coalition voters, 78% of One Nation voters and 57% of other parties’ voters opposed immediate withdrawal.</p>
<h2>Additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>In additional questions from the Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, by 54–18, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/grounded-pm-brought-back-to-earth-on-economy-20231112-p5ejbb.html">voters supported</a> Albanese visiting the US and President Joe Biden. Support for his visit to China and President Xi Jinping was narrower at 38–31.</p>
<p>By 69–14, voters thought <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-aid-not-arms-as-protests-fuel-safety-fears-20231113-p5ejj8.html">Australia should stay out</a> of the Israel-Palestine conflict for now, rather than intervene by calling for a ceasefire. Israel was favoured on questions on which side to provide aid or arms to.</p>
<p>Support <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voice-fallout-support-for-treaty-plunges-after-referendum-20231116-p5ekg5.html">for a treaty</a> between the Australian government and Indigenous peoples plunged from 58–27 in October, before the Voice referendum’s heavy defeat, to 37–33 opposed in November.</p>
<p>In another development, after losing preselection for his seat of Monash, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-14/russell-broadbent-quits-liberal-party-after-preselection-loss/103102336">Russell Broadbent</a> defected from the Liberals on November 14 and will sit as an independent. Broadbent is 72, and this shows that Australian political parties don’t want very old candidates.</p>
<h2>Victorian Labor easily holds Mulgrave at byelection</h2>
<p>A Victorian state byelection occurred in Mulgrave on Saturday. This seat was previously held by former Labor premier Daniel Andrews. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/results">Primary votes were</a> 40.1% Labor (down 10.1% since the 2022 election), 21.6% Liberals (up 4.4%), 18.9% for independent Ian Cook (up 0.9%), 5.9% Greens (up 0.8%), 3.8% Victorian Socialists (new), 3.1% Family First (up 1.1%) and 2.9% Libertarian (new).</p>
<p>The electoral commission’s election night preference count was between Labor and Cook, who finished second in 2022. Labor defeated Cook by 56.2–43.8, a 4.7% swing to Cook. I hope the commission will re-do this count between Labor and the Liberals. </p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/commentary">expects the Liberals</a> to do slightly better than Cook against Labor after preferences. Given the retirement of a high-profile former member and the poor polling for federal Labor, I think this is a decent result for Labor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor Party continues the poll slide it has experienced since the failed Voice referendum in October.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180542023-11-17T15:08:39Z2023-11-17T15:08:39ZWhat Xi got out of his meeting with Biden<p>China’s leader Xi Jinping flew into San Francisco to meet US president Joe Biden on November 15 for his first <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/what-expect-when-biden-meets-xi-jinping-san-francisco-2023-11-14/">visit</a> to the US since 2017. </p>
<p>The meeting, at the <a href="https://www.apec2023sf.org">Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation</a> (Apec) conference, was slightly longer than expected, <a href="https://time.com/6336036/biden-xi-summit-fentanyl-military/">at four hours</a>. This has been taken as a sign that the relationship between the two super powers is warming up slightly after a significantly rocky period, marked by <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45899310">a trade war</a> and a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66062562">Chinese spy balloon</a> entering US airspace. </p>
<p>After the meeting Xi said the doors between the two countries cannot “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67433961">be closed again</a>”.</p>
<p>There have been some small but important steps in potentially reducing the risk of a potential cold war. Avoiding another cold war has been one of Xi’s key objectives, outlined in what has been labelled as the “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/18/3/orac012/6575815">Five Nos</a>” stated at the 2021 Alaska Summit between China’s director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, Yang Jiechi, and US secretary of state, Antony Blinken. Biden said after the San Francisco summit that while the China-US relationship is competitive, his responsibility is to make it “<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/takeaways-from-the-biden-xi-summit-where-low-expectations-were-met/ar-AA1k0tcH">rational and manageable</a>”. </p>
<p>The summit has been vital for Xi’s bid to stabilise China’s domestic situation, and potentially to gain more access to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-11-14/u-s-ceos-line-up-to-woo-chinas-xi-at-apec">US businesses</a>. There were signs this was paying off, with a number of important US business leaders headed to San Francisco to meet with Xi. This comes at a time of significant turmoil in <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3241354/china-gdp-economic-growth-expected-slip-2025-after-1-trillion-yuan-bond-bonanza-wears">the Chinese economy</a>, which include high levels of youth <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/21/economy/china-economy-troubles-intl-hnk/index.html">unemployment and an export slump</a>.</p>
<p>Xi seeks a level playing field for Chinese firms in the US, while also aiming to show foreign investors that China is still open for business and investment. In advance of the summit, Beijing has sought to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/musk-citi-s-fraser-among-the-ceos-wooing-china-s-xi-at-apec?leadSource=uverify%20wall">win over</a> US business leaders, who are seen as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/29/tech/us-china-nvidia-ai-chip-curbs-intl-hnk/index.html">less hawkish</a> on China than their political counterparts as well as being the primary beneficiaries of US-China trade.</p>
<p>This was demonstrated by the visits of Microsoft’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/16/business/bill-gates-xi-jinping.html">Bill Gates</a> and Apple’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67133155">Tim Cook</a> to China earlier in 2023, where they received a bigger reception that many heads of state. China views the trade tensions between the US and itself as having <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/four-years-trade-war-are-us-and-china-decoupling">adverse effects</a> on US businesses too, which it hopes it can use to lobby Washington to moderate its stance towards Beijing. As a result, winning over business leaders such as Cook and Gates is just as <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-11-14/u-s-ceos-line-up-to-woo-chinas-xi-at-apec">important</a> as convincing political leaders such as Biden.</p>
<p>This summit can also be seen as furthering Beijing’s efforts to improve its relationships with many western nations, underlined also by the visit of the Australian prime minister, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/05/anthony-albanese-arrives-for-china-visit-meeting-xi-jinping-and-li-qiang-in-australia-national-interest">Anthony Albanese</a>, to Beijing on November 4 2023. This marks a departure from its earlier aggressive foreign policy stance dubbed “<a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/02/27/is-china-moving-away-from-wolf-warrior-diplomacy/">wolf warrior</a>” diplomacy. The way the summit has unfolded may have been a sign that China doesn’t want further confrontation with the west right now. </p>
<p>Biden’s <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/while-pledging-defend-taiwan-china-biden-shifted-taiwan-independence-heres-why-matters">statement</a> that Washington does not support full Taiwanese independence, while still being concerned about Chinese military intervention on the self-governing island gives Xi a bit more breathing space to focus elsewhere, perhaps de-escalating tension between the two over the long-term future for Taiwan.</p>
<p>A pause in the tension with the US is potentially useful for both Beijing and Washington as they grapple with their own domestic politics, and <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/what-the-israel-palestine-conflict-means-for-china-us-competition/">conflict around the world</a>. </p>
<p>Possibly the most significant obstacle to Xi’s goals at the summit have been the economic tensions between the US and China, which peaked under Donald Trump’s leadership. These tensions have been highlighted by the discussion over “<a href="https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/end-to-decoupling-tops-chinas-pre-summit-demands/">de-risking</a>” ties with China by the US and its allies. This would involve the termination or restriction of business ties with Chinese entities. Beijing views this as a US effort to constrain its economic development. </p>
<p>Talk of “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/what-is-us-china-decoupling-and-how-is-it-happening">decoupling</a>”, by cutting trade with China, has largely been dismissed by senior US officials, such as secretary of the treasury, <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1893">Janet Yellen</a>, and Senate majority leader, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendanahern/2023/10/09/mainland-markets-reopen-from-golden-week-holiday/?sh=523c0f167205">Chuck Schumer</a>.</p>
<h2>China’s strengths</h2>
<p>There are several reasons for China to be confident in its negotiating powers with the US. One of these can be seen in the apparent <a href="https://time.com/6234566/how-us-win-the-tech-war-with-china/">failure</a> of the US-led trade war to stymie China’s technological development, with restrictive measures such as chip curbs resulting in Chinese firms <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/xi-holds-four-aces-as-he-meets-biden/">switching</a> to Huawei processors. </p>
<p>Such moves have cost US firms such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/chip-wreck-nvidia-sinks-sector-after-us-restricts-china-sales-2022-09-01/">Nvidia</a> the Chinese market while seemingly making <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ikebrannon/2023/08/11/chinas-resilient-chip-sector-reinforces-the-need-for-stronger-us-policy-action/?sh=a0f9e00721b2">little impact</a> on Chinese innovation. This, in turn, has lessened the amount of economic leverage that the US has over China.</p>
<p>The US has its own strategic challenges, with the conflicts in <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e8bee793-2349-4ef9-bf16-dafad8dbd4c0">Ukraine</a> and <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/10/24/the-overstretched-superpower">Gaza</a> placing American capacities under greater strain. In China’s eyes, an overextended US is less willing to open a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/07/china-philippines-us-biden-alliance-asia-south-china-sea/">third front</a> in Asia. </p>
<p>This further strengthens China’s position, with the additional benefit of these conflicts strengthening China’s influence in <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/china-russia-alliance-likelier-we-think">Russia</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-war-in-gaza-opens-up-new-opportunities-for-china-in-the-middle-east-216392">developing world</a>. As a result, China’s diplomatic standing and clout is perhaps stronger than expected.</p>
<p>So far, there have been a few token agreements such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/nov/15/us-china-biden-xi-meeting-republicans-congress-politics-latest-updates?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-65557b5a8f088603929f2a4e">resumption</a> of high-level communication contact between the US and Chinese militaries, which marks a notable deescalation in the tensions between the two.</p>
<p>While Apec is a step in the right direction for reducing Sino-US tensions, it is somewhat doubtful that Xi has won everything that Beijing wanted. Meanwhile, Biden will be <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/16/very-significant-xi-biden-meet-could-help-lower-tensions-say-analysts">scrutinised</a> by the opposition for not giving too much away to China. This is pertinent because he faces an election next year, where his most likely opponent is Donald Trump, who was famous for his <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-09/trump-s-possible-win-is-shaping-policies-of-china-russia-japan-eu">hardline stance</a> on China. Consequently, any concession to Beijing may cost Biden dearly in his bid to be re-elected.</p>
<p>What can be delivered from the summit is a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-26/us-and-china-need-strategic-pause-to-rebuild-relations">pause</a> in China-US tension rather than an end to it. In the face of the challenges in restructuring China’s economy and the US’s geopolitical quagmires, perhaps breathing room is the best that Beijing and Washington can hope for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Harper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s president Xi Jinping went to the recent summit with Joe Biden hoping to get some relief for the troubled Chinese economy.Tom Harper, Lecturer in International Relations, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2171872023-11-12T23:20:53Z2023-11-12T23:20:53ZLabor still far ahead in Resolve poll, in contrast to other recent polls<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-cut-support-for-labor-as-cost-of-living-concerns-mount-20231109-p5eius.html?btis=">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 1–5 from a sample of 1,602, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 30% (down one), the Greens 13% (up one), One Nation 7% (steady), the UAP 2% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 4% (up two).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but an estimate based on applying 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 57–43 lead, unchanged since October. While this poll was published today, it was taken over a week ago, before the November 7 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">interest rate rise</a>.</p>
<p>Resolve’s polls since the 2022 election have been far better for Labor than other polls. Other recent federal polls have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">last week’s</a> Newspoll and Redbridge poll that gave Labor respectively a 52–48 and a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 52–48 Labor lead in Morgan and a 48–46 Labor lead in a late <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">October Essential</a> poll including undecided voters.</p>
<p>While Resolve’s voting intentions are much better for Labor than other recent polls, their leaders’ ratings are not. On Anthony Albanese, 46% thought he was doing a poor job and 39% a good job, for a net approval of -6, down seven points since October. Albanese’s net approval was +27 after the May budget.</p>
<p>Dutton’s net approval improved 11 points since October to -4, his best net approval since the election and the first time in any poll Dutton has had a better net approval than Albanese. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 40–27, a narrowing from 47–25 previously.</p>
<p>The Liberals extended their lead over Labor on economic management from 35–33 to 34–27. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals reversed a 31–27 Labor lead in October to take a 29–24 lead. These are the Liberals’ best results on these issues since the election. With 52% naming cost of living as the highest priority for their vote, this issue matters. </p>
<p>Voters are pessimistic about the economic outlook. In the next three months, 50% expect the economy to get worse and just 8% improve. In the next year, it’s 41% get worse and 23% improve.</p>
<p>By 60–19, voters said their income had not kept up with inflation over the past year. By 64–8, they expected inflation to get worse in the near future. By 65–9, they did not think interest rate rises are coming to an end.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and additional questions from other polls</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted October 30 to November 5 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9531-roy-morgan-update-november-8-2023">sample</a> of 1,371, Labor led by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 31.5% Labor, 13.5% Greens and 20% for all Others.</p>
<p>Voters in last week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/cut-spending-taxes-to-curb-inflation-and-ease-living-expenses-says-newspoll/news-story/71f2a81154c9bfc77749a5a748bfbf0d">Newspoll</a> were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of five measures to help with cost of living.</p>
<p>Subsidising energy bills was most supported at 84% approve, followed by subsidising fuel prices (81%), cutting government spending (77%), giving tax cuts to individuals (73%) and giving cash payments to low-income families (56%).</p>
<p>In <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Vote-intention-Nov-2023.pdf">additional questions</a> from Redbridge, by 50–36 voters thought the Albanese government was not focused on the right priorities. By 50–30, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government.</p>
<p>Essential had questions on the Melbourne Cup that were released on Cup Day November 7 in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/07/melbourne-cup-2023-horse-race-field-broadcast-horses-australia-interest-day">The Guardian</a> from the previous <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/31-october-2023">national Essential poll</a> in late October.</p>
<p>On interest in the Cup, 11% said they had high interest (down four since 2022), 24% moderate interest (down seven), 27% low interest (up three) and 35% no interest (up seven). On betting, 13% regularly bet on horses and the Cup (down five) and 26% rarely bet on horses but make an exception for the Cup (down three).</p>
<p>On attitudes to the Melbourne Cup, 65% said it is a unique part of Australia’s national identity (down seven), 48% said it promotes unhealthy gambling behaviour (up three) and 36% said it normalises animal cruelty (up two).</p>
<h2>US off-year elections</h2>
<p>While the United States presidential election is in November 2024, there were some state elections on November 7. I covered the results for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/07/us-off-year-elections-live-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Democrats performed well in the headline races, holding the Kentucky governorship and gaining control of the Virginia legislature, while Ohio passed two referendums supported by Democrats.</p>
<p>However, the legislative elections were mediocre for Democrats, as they did worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. US polls show Biden struggling against Donald Trump, and these elections should not change our opinion of 2024.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: drop for both major parties’ primary votes</h2>
<p>A New South Wales <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-slides-as-greens-independents-make-ground-20231109-p5eiuo.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal October and November Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 36% of the primary vote (down two since September), the Coalition 32% (down four), the Greens 13% (up four), independents 12% (down one) and others 7% (up three).</p>
<p>No two-party estimate was provided, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/12/resolve-strategic-labor-36-coalition-32-greens-13-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated a 56.5–43.5 Labor lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-for-both-the-voice-and-labor-drop-in-latest-essential-poll-213350">since September</a>. Labor Premier Chris Minns held a 35–13 lead over the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier (41–14 in September).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor still leads on two-party preferred, but is feeling the strain as cost of living pressures take hold.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172802023-11-09T09:37:22Z2023-11-09T09:37:22ZGrattan on Friday: When Labor states don’t dance to the Albanese government’s tune<p>It’s helpful for the Albanese government to have all mainland states in Labor hands – but only up to a point. </p>
<p>This week we’ve seen the Queensland government bite back at federal plans to curb the national infrastructure program, while Victorian resistance to changes to the Murray-Darling water plan prompted Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek to lash out. </p>
<p>Infrastructure is always a vexed issue. The program is full of pork barrelling, whoever is in power. Even when that’s not involved, what to build and when it should be built is often contested. </p>
<p>In May, the government announced a 90-day review of the $120 billion infrastructure pipeline it inherited from the Coalition.</p>
<p>Infrastructure Minister Catherine King said projects had increased from about 150 to 800. The government’s aim was to reduce the number of projects (many of them small) and rearrange priorities.</p>
<p>High inflation, cost overruns and shortages of labour and materials are plaguing the program.</p>
<p>The political difficulties of abolishing or changing projects, often involving negotiation with states and territories, are obvious enough. Now they have become significantly worse. </p>
<p>The government has received its stocktake, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the overall cost of the program has blown out by some $33 billion. </p>
<p>Also, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/10/31/cs103123-australia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2023-article-iv#:%7E:text=Australia's%20economy%20has%20been%20resilient,after%20a%20correction%20in%202022.">an International Monetary Fund report</a> last week said infrastructure projects should be rolled out at a “more measured and co-ordinated pace, given supply constraints, to alleviate inflationary pressures”.</p>
<p>Chalmers is pushing this message, but it’s not being received well in Queensland. </p>
<p>State Treasurer Cameron Dick was blunt. “Queensland is Australia’s growth state and we need more infrastructure, not less,” <a href="https://twitter.com/camerondickqld/status/1720977443337691323">he said in a tweet</a>. “If infrastructure cuts are needed, they should be made to southern states with low growth and high debt.” (Fun fact: the electorate offices of Queenslanders Chalmers and Dick share a common wall.)</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1720977443337691323"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/road-rail-projects-need-to-be-cut-to-take-heat-out-of-inflation-treasurer/news-story/a99b728bdff427ae13cb879700b19ed1">Queensland Police Minister Mark Ryan said</a>:</p>
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<p>I’ve got a clear message for Jim. Jim’s a mate of mine. Jim, those projects better not be in Queensland.</p>
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<p>The last thing the Palaszczuk government wants is for projects to be cancelled, slashed or delayed. It is in a particularly precarious position – it faces an election in a year’s time and will be fighting for survival.</p>
<p>Queensland has an obvious political self-interest in resisting infrastructure cuts, but there’s a national point too. With large numbers of migrants coming into Australia, the demand for transport and other infrastructure will be increasing, rather than decreasing. Whatever cuts and slowdowns are made will need to be well judged. </p>
<p>The federal government argues the existing pipeline is unrealistic and without change could not be delivered anyway. But even if the decisions about what to cut, scale back or defer are economically sound, in political terms they could store up electoral time bombs for the government. </p>
<p>Even minor and unworthy projects can be sensitive in marginal seats. Scrapping them could open opportunities for the opposition. Also, available funds for new projects presumably will be limited. </p>
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<p>When the government finishes its negotiations with the states and the outcomes are announced, King will be the main minister defending the decisions. </p>
<p>As we saw in the row over the rejection of Qatar Airways’ bid for extra flights, she struggles when under pressure. She could find the task challenging. </p>
<p>The fight over the government’s water changes centre on its planned amendments to the Murray-Darling Basin plan. </p>
<p>The legislation, soon to be considered by the Senate, broadens the activities that can be funded and extends the times for delivery of water-recovery projects. Most importantly, it removes the cap on the federal government’s “buybacks” of extra water for the environment. </p>
<p>The Murray-Darling plan is always fraught, because the interests of upstream and downstream users and their governments differ. Nevertheless, Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales have signed on – although NSW has done so reluctantly. </p>
<p>But Victoria, where the Andrews government has built a close relationship with irrigators, has held out, defending its position on the basis of work done by Frontier Economics. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-cost-of-living-crisis-is-the-dragon-the-government-cant-slay-216441">Grattan on Friday: Cost-of-living crisis is the dragon the government can't slay</a>
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<p>Its report argues that “previous water recovery has resulted in less irrigation […] putting the viability of major irrigation districts and the industries and communities they support under pressure”.</p>
<p>“Further water recovery from irrigators (buybacks and on-farm projects) will add to the impacts already being felt and undermine the ability of irrigation communities to plan for the future.”</p>
<p>Plibersek declared, <a href="https://www.tanyaplibersek.com/media/transcripts/abc-radio-national-breakfast-with-patricia-karvelas/">in an interview with the ABC</a>, that it was “extraordinary that we’ve got a Labor government using dodgy modelling to join up with Barnaby Joyce and David Littleproud”. </p>
<p>Victoria’s Water Minister Harriet Shing retorts: “This isn’t about party politics, and it’s disappointing to see it framed that way. We don’t apologise for standing up for Victorian communities and environments.”</p>
<p>But Plibersek has backing from Jamie Pittock, from the Australian National University’s Fenner School of Environment and Society. He says: </p>
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<p>The Victorian government can usually be relied on to make decisions based on solid data. In the case of the Murray-Darling Basin, bizarrely, it has relied on low-quality consultants’ reports that exaggerate the socio-economic costs and ignore the benefits from water buybacks.</p>
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<p>The legislation will come to a vote in the Senate this year, and there will be wrangling with the crossbench. </p>
<p>Assuming the legislation passes, the federal government can override Victoria and proceed with the buybacks of water for the environment. But it will still face the opposition of farming and irrigator groups, and some local communities. </p>
<p>It would be hard to find political observers who believe Peter Dutton can win the next election, due by May 2025. But there is increasing talk about the possibility that Labor, given it has a very narrow majority, could find itself in minority government. (Contrast a year ago, when all the talk was about Labor’s prospects for increasing its majority.)</p>
<p>Being pushed into minority is something Albanese – a senior figure in the minority Gillard government – would want to avoid at all costs. It would hamper the government’s flexibility to pursue its program, mean constant negotiation with crossbenchers including bolshie Greens, and encourage the Coalition to run maximum disruption. </p>
<p>The challenge of keeping out of minority increases the importance of the “ground game” in Labor’s marginal electorates. And it could make controversies over local issues – scrapped infrastructure projects, or unpopular new ventures including ugly transmission lines for renewable energy – potentially dangerous for the incumbents in those seats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217280/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Infrastructure is always a vexed issue. The program is full of pork barrelling, whoever is in power. Even when that’s not involved, what to build and when it should be built is often contested.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172702023-11-08T07:56:15Z2023-11-08T07:56:15Z‘Clear change in Australia’s attitude’: what mattered most to China about Anthony Albanese’s visit<p>As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese concluded his four-day visit to China, both countries agreed it was important to keep up the momentum in their steadily warming relations, while also expanding their areas of cooperation.</p>
<p>Both sides emphasised the complementary nature of their economic ties and sounded optimistic about exploring new areas of cooperation in climate change, renewable energy and agriculture. They also committed to maintaining their recently resumed high-level dialogues. These include annual prime minister meetings and other diplomatic, strategic and economic talks.</p>
<p>While Australian media coverage focused on the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-07/the-key-takeaways-from-albanese-s-visit-to-china/103073390">historic nature</a> of the trip, as well as the importance from a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06/where-to-next-for-the-australia-china-trade/103071680">trade perspective</a>, what mattered most to China? And how was the visit covered by the media there?</p>
<p>Beijing certainly views the visit as a major milestone in bilateral relations. Official media coverage emphasised that the two countries have no historical issues with one another, and have previously demonstrated how a stable bilateral relationship can be mutually beneficial. </p>
<p>President Xi Jinping praised Albanese’s efforts in getting their relations back to this level, calling the visit “a new starting point”. </p>
<p>The Chinese media and some of China’s Australia watchers also noted Albanese’s attendance at the China International Import Exhibition in Shanghai as symbolising the importance of the Chinese market for Australia. They saw this as an indication Australia “will not comply with US attempts to decouple from China”.</p>
<h2>The main takeaways from the Chinese side</h2>
<p>There are several important takeaways from Albanese’s trip on the Chinese side. </p>
<p>Overall, China saw the visit as an opportunity to re-engage Australia, a key US ally in the region and an important economic partner. </p>
<p>Recognising its economic coercion against the Morrison government did not achieve its objectives – and facing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/22/blinken-sullivan-korea-japan-china/">ongoing US-led efforts</a> to constrain its rise – Beijing has been making foreign policy adjustments. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/05/europe-and-china-at-critical-juncture-as-beijing-floats-ukraine-peace-plan.html">reaching out</a> to some US allies and partners, including key European Union member states, and inviting them to multi-pronged diplomatic initiatives organised by China. It has also been holding bilateral talks on important economic and political issues with high-ranking officials from these countries.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-drums-of-war-are-receding-but-anthony-albanese-still-faces-many-uncertainties-on-his-trip-to-china-216727">The 'drums of war' are receding, but Anthony Albanese still faces many uncertainties on his trip to China</a>
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<p>Chinese leaders recognised the Australian Labor Party’s traditional approach to foreign policy emphasises cooperation with international organisations, such as the United Nations and regional institutions. As such, they focused on the shared interests between China and Australia (commerce, climate change), as well as their shared identities (Asia-Pacific countries). </p>
<p>At the same time, they also subtly (or bluntly, depending which side you look at it) reminded Canberra that its alliance commitments with the US and membership in security arrangements like AUKUS and the Quad should not be at the expense of Australia-China relations – and certainly not Chinese interests.</p>
<p>The Global Times <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202311/1301345.shtml">made no secret</a> of the fact Australia can set an example for other US allies in an opinion piece:</p>
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<p>Australia is the first US ally to make a clear change in its attitude toward China after a fierce conflict with China since the US defined China as its No. 1 strategic competitor. […] Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and even US allies in Europe will think about themselves given the ups and downs of China-Australia relations. </p>
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<p>The economic agenda was equally important to Beijing, given the difficulties China is currently facing. </p>
<p>Given the nature of Australia-China trade, there is a limit to the punitive measures China can impose on Australia. In fact, despite the tensions that existed with Australia under the Morrison government, overall bilateral trade has continued to grow, reaching <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/14/china-australia-trade-minister-don-farrell-on-barley-wine-tariffs.html">nearly $300 billion in 2022</a>. This shows how complementary the two economies actually are, as well as the resilience of these economic ties. </p>
<p>This is what Chinese leaders and the media emphasised during Albanese’s visit and why they were highly critical of the idea of “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/22/what-is-us-china-decoupling-and-how-is-it-happening/dc16bc76-10d9-11ee-8d22-5f65b2e2f6ad_story.html">decoupling</a>” or “de-risking” from China’s economy. </p>
<p>They characterised “decoupling” as going against free trade and protectionism, but in reality, Beijing is deeply concerned over any specific measures that restrict trade in the high-tech sector, such as with semiconductors. The US and its allies have been increasingly <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/18/tech/us-china-chip-export-curbs-intl-hnk/index.html">adopting</a> such restrictions in recent years.</p>
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<h2>The importance of what wasn’t said</h2>
<p>What wasn’t discussed much in the Chinese media was the gap between what Beijing presented as a successful visit and what was actually achieved. </p>
<p>One could argue both sides talked about the obvious – for example, that bilateral relations have more or less stabilised, compared to how they were 18 months ago. As China expert Richard McGregor <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/a-smiling-xi-is-a-wolf-warrior-in-sheep-s-clothing-20231106-p5ehzz">astutely observed</a>, Albanese was “pushing on an open door”. </p>
<p>This is not to belittle the progress made so far. The intentions of both governments to resume and strengthen the many dialogues between officials from their countries is important – even critical – in “resetting” the relationship. These channels of communication are incredibly important during times of crisis as a way of managing disputes and avoiding conflicts from spiralling out of control.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ping-pong-diplomacy-australian-table-tennis-players-return-to-china-five-decades-after-historic-tour-215537">Ping-pong diplomacy: Australian table tennis players return to China, five decades after historic tour</a>
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<p>Though resetting the relationship was a definite aim in the long term, there were also significant takeaways in the short term. This can be seen in how the state media coverage downplayed AUKUS and conflicts in the South Pacific, where <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/new-report-by-aiddata-shows-full-extent-of-china-loans-and-grants-in-pacific-with-papua-new-guinea-marshall-islands-top-recipients/news-story/f11bdc62f0ee7ce5fddb3b6a889f6721">China’s influence</a> has raised alarm bells in Canberra and Washington. </p>
<p>China has signalled its displeasure over AUKUS and continues to consider it <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202311/1301371.shtml">a major impediment</a> to further improvement of bilateral relations. But Xi <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231106-china-s-xi-to-welcome-australian-pm-albanese-in-beijing">told</a> Albanese they could work together on regional security challenges. </p>
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<p>Where there are efforts to cause disturbances in the Asia-Pacific region, we must firstly stay vigilant, and secondly oppose them. </p>
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<p>And in the Pacific, the Chinese side is seeing an opportunity for the two countries in terms of regional economic development – how Australia and China can both contribute.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217270/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jingdong Yuan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Beijing focused on the shared interests and identities between China and Australia, emphasising the enduring importance of the bilateral economic relationship.Jingdong Yuan, Associate Professor, Asia-Pacific security, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168192023-11-05T23:32:49Z2023-11-05T23:32:49ZAlbanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-leading-on-primary-vote-as-dutton-closes-in-on-albanese/news-story/9e2c3b2e95123cbcfc8ad1604239b39a">Newspoll</a>, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice referendum. This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Newspoll since the 2022 federal election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up two percentage points), 35% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all others (down one).</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 52% dissatisfied (up six points) and 42% satisfied (down four), for a net approval of -10, down ten points. This is easily his lowest net approval in Newspoll since becoming PM. This graph shows the continued decline in Albanese’s Newspoll ratings since late 2022.</p>
<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -13. Albanese’s lead over Dutton for preferred prime minister narrowed to 46–36%, from 51–31% previously. This is also Albanese’s smallest lead since the election. Newspoll and Redbridge figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/05/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to Albanese and Labor.</p>
<h2>Redbridge national poll: Labor’s lead holds steady</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nsw/voice-focus-stirs-blue-collar-revolt-against-anthony-albanese-and-the-labor-party/news-story/2c59d527389c7fbdf0283d2ecb456ff7">Herald Sun</a>
reported Sunday that a Redbridge national poll, conducted October 25 to November 2 from a sample of 1,205 people, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Federal-Poll-Sept-2023.pdf">early September</a>. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one point), 34% Labor (down three), 14% Greens (up one) and 17% for all others (up three).</p>
<p>The Herald Sun emphasised large primary vote swings against Labor among those with lower educational attainment, but these would be based on small subsamples of the overall sample, and are thus not reliable.</p>
<h2>Voice referendum final results</h2>
<p>All of the votes in the October 14 referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament have now been counted and the final results are in.</p>
<p>Nationally, “no” won the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm">referendum</a> by a 60.06–39.94% margin, or 20.1 points. “No” also won every state, by 8.3 percentage points in Victoria, 17.9 points in New South Wales and Tasmania, 26.5 points in Western Australia, 28.3 points in South Australia and 36.4 points in Queensland.</p>
<p>For the referendum to be successful, it needed a majority in at least four of the six states, as well as a national majority. The territories are counted towards the national total, but not the majority of states. The “no” vote won in the Northern Territory by 20.6 percentage points, while “yes” came out ahead in the ACT by 22.6 points.</p>
<p>Nationally, 34 of the 151 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=yes&state=all&party=all">House of Representatives electorates</a>
voted “yes” while 117 voted “no”. In NSW, 11 of 47 seats voted “yes”, in Victoria 13 of 39, in Queensland three of 30, in WA two of 15, in SA none of ten, in Tasmania two of five, in the ACT all three seats and in the NT none of two.</p>
<p>All seven seats won by “teal” independents and all four won by Greens at the 2022 election voted “yes”, as did 21 of the 78 Labor-held seats. Bradfield in NSW was the only one of 57 Coalition-held seats to vote “yes”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-australians-supported-voice-referendum-by-large-margins-labor-retains-large-newspoll-lead-215663">Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead</a>
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<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/some-graphs-on-the-voice-referendum-result/">has a chart showing</a> the “yes” and “no” split by vote type. Pre-poll ordinary votes were far worse for “yes” than polling day ordinary votes, and postals were even worse. But both polling day absent votes and declaration pre-poll votes were better for the “yes” side than polling day ordinary votes.</p>
<p>Turnout for the referendum was 89.9%, higher than the 89.8% turnout recorded for the House at the last federal election.</p>
<h2>How did the polls do?</h2>
<p>The graph below shows the “yes” lead or deficit in all polls conducted this year, culminating with the final result (“no” by 20.1 points). Newspoll’s final poll was the most accurate, showing a 20-point “no” lead. YouGov’s final poll had an 18-point “no” lead, while Focaldata’s poll suggested a 22-point defeat.</p>
<p>Other pollsters did not perform as well, such as Morgan, whose final poll showed “no” with just a seven-point lead, and Essential, which had given “no” a six-point lead. Essential has <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology">altered its methodology</a> since the referendum to weight results by education level.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/indigenous/voice-referendum-newspoll-late-swing-for-yes-campaign-but-nation-poised-to-say-no/news-story/7096dcf9234291d496ba016ccaa5142c">Newspoll’s state breakdowns</a> were also good at the state level, with the exception of WA. “No” led in the final Newspoll by 13 points in NSW, eight points in Victoria, 35 points in Queensland, 27 points in SA, 37 points in WA and 17 points in Tasmania.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-falls-in-newspoll-to-new-low-but-is-up-in-resolve-though-still-well-behind-215156">Resolve poll</a> had “yes” ahead in Tasmania by 56–44% in its final poll, which was a large error given “no” won in the state by almost 18 points.</p>
<p>Newspoll was administered by YouGov until mid-July, but is now managed by Pyxis. Both the new Newspoll and YouGov performed well.</p>
<h2>Victorian Mulgrave byelection</h2>
<p>A byelection will occur on November 18 in the Victorian state seat of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023">Mulgrave</a>, previously held by former Labor Premier Daniel Andrews. At the 2022 state election, Andrews defeated independent Ian Cook after preferences by 60.8–39.2%, and the Liberals by 60.2–39.8%. </p>
<p>Cook is running for the seat again. He will face nine other candidates, including Labor’s Eden Foster and the Liberals’ Courtney Mann.</p>
<h2>Argentine legislative results</h2>
<p>I covered the Argentine legislative results from the October 22 election in my article for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/03/new-zealand-election-results-finalisation-12pm-aedt-today/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The combined right-wing parties won control of the lower house in Argentina, but failed in the Senate owing to a system similar to first-past-the-post.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to the prime minister and Labor.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167272023-11-02T19:13:43Z2023-11-02T19:13:43ZThe ‘drums of war’ are receding, but Anthony Albanese still faces many uncertainties on his trip to China<p>Fifty years ago this week, Prime Minister Gough Whitlam visited the People’s Republic of China, establishing a relationship that has become mutually beneficial in terms of economic growth and development to both China and Australia. </p>
<p>It was in many ways a bold step into the unknown. While the two economies are clearly complementary, their political systems are very different, as today’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, repeatedly points out. </p>
<p>Prior to Labor’s election victory in 2022, the Coalition government struggled to manage the necessary ambiguity in Australia-China relations, determining that politics (and in some cases ideology) had to be more important than economics. </p>
<p>Albanese’s visit to Beijing, starting this weekend, should be welcomed as it signals an alternative approach to the outright hostility that characterised much of Australia-China relations after 2017.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ping-pong-diplomacy-australian-table-tennis-players-return-to-china-five-decades-after-historic-tour-215537">Ping-pong diplomacy: Australian table tennis players return to China, five decades after historic tour</a>
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<h2>From ‘drums of war’ to ‘stable relations’</h2>
<p>In an Anzac Day 2021 message to his staff, later published to some fanfare in The Australian, the then-Home Affairs secretary, Mike Pezzullo, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-drums-of-war-are-growing-louder/news-story/bf29fb3cf94b89f84eaeb22fd32d9724">warned</a> the “drums of war” were beating. It was a clear reference to Australia’s tensions with China. </p>
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<p>Peter Dutton, the minister of defence, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/25/australian-defence-minister-says-conflict-over-taiwan-involving-china-should-not-be-discounted#:%7E:text=2%20years%20old-,Australian%20defence%20minister%20says%20conflict%20over,China%20%27should%20not%20be%20discounted%27&text=The%20Australian%20defence%20minister%2C%20Peter,%22good%20relations%22%20with%20Beijing.">agreed</a> that war with China over Taiwan “should not be discounted”. In an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-vows-to-call-out-beijing-and-declares-everyday-australians-are-with-the-government-20210501-p57o14.html">interview days later</a>, he said the Australian Defence Force was “prepared for action”:</p>
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<p>[…] protection for our borders and our waters to the north and west remains a clear priority.</p>
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<p>Echoing the spirit of Winston Churchill’s <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00002969">1954 comments</a> at the White House that “jaw-jaw is always better than war-war”, the Albanese government has rejected this perspective of the Morrison government.</p>
<p>The new government’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-to-head-to-china-within-months-after-accepting-xi-jinping-s-invitation-20230907-p5e2n1.html">formula</a> is to “work towards productive and stable relations with China based on mutual benefit and respect”. Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have both emphasised that Australia will cooperate where it can and differ where it must.</p>
<p>Given the government’s commitment to the US alliance, this difference with its predecessor may seem little more than rhetorical. But rhetoric in international political relations can carry substantial weight. This is especially true during periods of geopolitical instability, such as the world is experiencing now.</p>
<h2>Room for cooperation</h2>
<p>This wider context puts necessary limits around what the government might hope to achieve – and what Australia should expect – from Albanese’s trip to Beijing. </p>
<p>The emergence of an explicit “strategic competition” between the US and China, and the role of Australia in that competition through AUKUS, means the days of a more open and easy-going relationship are unlikely to return soon. </p>
<p>But the Australia-US alliance is only one part of the Australia-China relationship, even if it has dominated headlines of late. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-china-australia-relations-head-back-to-room-temperature-with-albaneses-november-visit-216151">View from The Hill: China-Australia relations head back to room temperature, with Albanese's November visit</a>
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<p>Australia and China also have differing priorities and ambitions in the Pacific. And both countries continue to have very complementary economies. These links require a more nuanced management of the relationship, and could certainly be the subject of discussion during Albanese’s visit.</p>
<p>Australian governments have long regarded the Pacific islands as holding great geopolitical and economic importance. Until recently, however, this has not been matched by attention to the concerns and development priorities of these nations, namely the consequences of climate change and the need for basic infrastructure. </p>
<p>This gap has been filled by China through its Belt and Road Initiative. When the Chinese government <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-s-wang-yi-seeks-support-for-pacific-security-deal-20220530-p5apjk">attempted to reach</a> security agreements with some of the Pacific islands, the Australian government reacted with a series of official visits, additional economic assistance and the promise of initiatives to develop economic and cultural relationships.</p>
<p>There is certainly room for cooperation between China and Australia in this area. Despite its continued use of fossil fuels, China has developed a sizeable renewable energy industry, far greater than Australia as a proportion of energy production. </p>
<p>The two countries could also cooperate in the provision of development assistance to the Pacific.</p>
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<h2>Why the trade relationship matters to both sides</h2>
<p>The bilateral trade relationship will definitely be on the table for discussion in Beijing. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/AUS">accounting for</a> 34% of all exports and 28% of imports. </p>
<p>More importantly, Australia is one of few countries that has a major <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/australias-exports-to-china-are-jumping-despite-their-trade-fight.html">trade surplus</a> with China. In 2022-23, Australia’s surplus on the trade of goods with China was around <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-goods/aug-2023#">A$87 billion</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bring-on-the-year-of-the-rabbit-why-theres-new-hope-and-prosperity-tipped-for-australia-china-relations-197892">Bring on the Year of the Rabbit: why there's new hope and prosperity tipped for Australia-China relations</a>
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<p>Despite the rhetoric of the Morrison government portraying China as a threat to Australia, the disappearance of this economic relationship would pose an equally significant challenge. This has only been reinforced by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/australia-eu-free-trade-deal-collapses-g7-fta-european-union">collapse of talks</a> to establish a free-trade agreement between Australia and the European Union in recent days.</p>
<p>For the moment, trade is one aspect of the relationship that is equally important for the Chinese leadership, despite the imbalance in the size of the two economies. While the import of Australian resources is clearly significant – and there is some evidence the tariffs China imposed proved harmful to its own economy – the reason for China’s attention on trade lies elsewhere. </p>
<p>The Chinese government is currently seeking to join the <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership">Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement</a>. This is the successor free trade association to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2017. To that end, China needs the support of member states, including Australia.</p>
<p>In a series of meetings between Australian and Chinese officials this year, which led to the first <a href="https://apnews.com/article/australia-china-resume-dialogue-relationship-6f0f3e763eadfcb734c1b55aabff2ea5">high-level dialogue</a> between the countries since 2020, there’s been hope that a bilateral basis for renewed stability is now emerging. </p>
<p>Without these indications, Albanese would presumably not be visiting Beijing now. It may not be as dramatic a move as Whitlam’s visit in 1973, but inevitably there is an element of a step into the unknown.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David S G Goodman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are limits around what Australia might hope to achieve and what it should expect in Beijing, but there is room for cooperation.David S G Goodman, Director, China Studies Centre, Professor of Chinese Politics, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.