tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/arsenal-25482/articlesArsenal – The Conversation2023-07-04T17:08:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090662023-07-04T17:08:12Z2023-07-04T17:08:12ZWhy Arsenal paid so much for Declan Rice: a strategy focusing on mid-20s, home-grown talent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535548/original/file-20230704-17-ozfsr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3732%2C2484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Declan Rice playing for England. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rome-italy-july-3-2021-european-2014189553">Vlad1988/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Arsenal has reached an agreement with West Ham for the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/66048751">transfer of captain Declan Rice</a> for <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/arsenal-declan-rice-transfer-news-man-city-b2365490.html">a British record</a> of £105 million. This surpasses the <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11679/12372309/jack-grealish-manchester-city-sign-aston-villa-captain-for-100m">previous record</a> of £100 million paid by Manchester City to sign Jack Grealish from Aston Villa in the summer transfer window of the 2021/22 season.</p>
<p>While such a high transfer fee might sound outlandish for a player in the final year of his contract, Arsenal’s strategy is setting them up for potential Champions League success in the 2023/2024 season. </p>
<p>After securing qualification for the Champions League last season, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta’s constant rhetoric has been around getting the recruitment right. It was evident towards the end of last season that Arsenal <a href="https://dailycannon.com/2023/05/how-arsenals-lack-of-depth-premier-league-title/">did not have the squad depth</a> (enough quality players to replace the first team) to match Manchester City in the title race.</p>
<p>Arsenal’s transfer strategy cannot be analysed by looking at a single season in isolation. In the summer transfer window of 2021/22, the team made a concerted effort to sign youth players, with an outlay of £143 million for six players, including <a href="https://www.arsenal.com/news/welcome-martin-odegaard-joins-real-madrid">Martin Odegaard</a> and <a href="https://www.arsenal.com/news/aaron-ramsdale-joins-permanent-deal">Aaron Ramsdale</a>. </p>
<p>The following year saw the addition of <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12640253/gabriel-jesus-arsenal-complete-signing-of-brazil-forward-from-man-city">Gabriel Jesus</a> and <a href="https://www.skysports.com/transfer/news/12691/12655394/oleksandr-zinchenko-arsenal-sign-ukraine-international-from-man-city-in-32m-deal">Oleksandr Zinchenko</a> from Manchester City, while <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11670/12799982/jorginho-arsenal-sign-midfielder-from-chelsea-in-deal-worth-12m-on-deadline-day">Jorginho</a> was added in the January transfer window.</p>
<p>These transfers say a lot about Arsenal’s strategy. Teams need three different types of signings in order to succeed.</p>
<p>In the short term, they players who are signed to make immediate impact. In the medium term, players who are signed at the start of their peak and sold before they sign one last big contract. And in the long term, players who are signed as youth players and become the core of the team. </p>
<p>The signing of Declan Rice fits into the medium-term transfer strategy for the club.</p>
<h2>Arsenal’s recruitment strategy</h2>
<p>Arsenal’s recruitment strategy has undergone noticeable changes in the past two summers. They shifted from their “<a href="https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/project-youth-20-why-arsenals-problems-can-be-solved-within">Project Youth 2.0</a>” approach in the 2021-22 season to focusing on signing experienced players in their mid-20s. </p>
<p>This shift was instrumental in elevating Arsenal’s performance. The acquisition of Rice is in line with this strategy from last summer, indicating a continuation of their approach.</p>
<p>The tournaments Arsenal will be involved in next season hold the key to understanding Rice’s importance. This will be the first time since the 2015/16 season that Arsenal will be taking part in UEFA’s premier club competition, the Champions League.</p>
<p>In the previous transfer windows, Arsenal have sold their difficult-to-shift players with high wages and they will most likely generate money through similar sales this summer. The return to the Champions League will also help the club improve their revenue by at least £30 million, provided they can make it out of the group stages.</p>
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<p>The signing of Declan Rice will also help Arsenal with registration criteria for both the English Premier League and Champions League. A total number of 25 players over the age of 21 can be registered for both competitions. Out of those 25 players, at least eight players must be home grown, at either the club or in the country (in this case, England). </p>
<p>Declan Rice was trained in the Chelsea and West Ham academy, so he will count as a homegrown player for Arsenal.</p>
<p>But with a record-breaking bid, is Arsenal overpaying for Declan Rice? Laurie Shaw, the head of data analytics at Manchester City, <a href="http://eightyfivepoints.blogspot.com/2019/05/from-sessegnon-to-sanchez-how-to.html">created a formula</a> to calculate the correct market salary for English Premier League players. Applying the formula to Rice, it seems that Arsenal are overpaying by a fair margin – almost £75 million.</p>
<p>However, quality homegrown players are few and far between, which is what has allowed Arsenal to justify the £105 million fee – well worth it if the addition of Declan Rice helps the Gooners to trophy glory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarthak Mondal works as a Lecturer in Sport Management for University of Portsmouth. </span></em></p>The signing of homegrown talent, Declan Rice, will help Arsenal with registration criteria for both the English Premier League and Champions League.Sarthak Mondal, Lecturer in Sport Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695842021-10-12T17:18:44Z2021-10-12T17:18:44ZNewcastle United: buying a football club can still be lucrative – with the right business tactics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425964/original/file-20211012-27-1dc8qvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=68%2C89%2C3426%2C2399&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/newcastle-upon-tyne-england-february-26-1336011551">Shutterstock/Michael715</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Newcastle United fans cheered the announcement on October 7 that their club had finally been sold for <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58826899">£305 million</a>. The sale, to a consortium headed up by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, adds to a long list of clubs bought by the mega-rich, including Manchester City (owned by Sheikh Mansour), Arsenal (Stan Kroenke) and Chelsea (Roman Abramovich).</p>
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<p>But why do wealthy people or states buy football clubs in the first place? What is it about owning a team in a volatile and generally <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/46511940">loss-making industry</a> where success on the pitch can never be guaranteed? </p>
<p>Certainly the more successful clubs are a safer financial bet than those further down the football pyramid, with the lower leagues regularly <a href="https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/status/1293632910545817602">haemorrhaging money</a> (the Championship notoriously spent an average of <a href="https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/championship-wages-efl-deloitte-report-salary-cap-443094">107% of income on wages</a> recently).</p>
<p>The Premier League meanwhile continues to flourish financially, with its clubs bringing in plenty of revenue. Collectively, they <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/press-releases/articles/premier-league-club-revenues-fall-for-the-first-time-ever.html">earned £4.5 billion</a> in the 2019-20 season (the latest set of available accounts), and its members made up 12 of the <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/sports-business-group/articles/deloitte-football-money-league.html">top 30 clubs in the world by revenue</a>. </p>
<p>Of those, the so-called “Big Six” Premier League clubs – Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham Hotspur – are indeed the biggest six earners. Even the lowest earning among them, Arsenal, made 45% more than the next Premier League club on the list, Everton. </p>
<p>So maybe owning a big club is a way to make big money? Well, it’s not quite as simple as that, and the old adage, that the quickest way to become a millionaire is by starting out as a billionaire and buying a football club, still holds some weight. </p>
<p>This is because revenue (money coming in) is not the same as profit (money that owners can add to their existing pile of money at the end of the season). So making a fortune is by no means a given, <a href="https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/status/1425001984336310273">even in the Premier League</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, there are other reasons for buying a football club, even a loss-making one. It may be fandom, ego, prestige or politics – indeed, the Saudi backed takeover of Newcastle has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/saudi-backed-newcastle-takeover-as-much-about-status-as-sportswashing">labelled by opponents</a> as “sportswashing”, the use of sport as a means of seeking legitimacy or improving reputations. The new owners have <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-takeover-sportswashing-isnt-buying-a-club-in-relegation-zone-says-amanda-staveley-w0znjjtkg">strongly denied</a> that this is the case.</p>
<h2>The long game</h2>
<p>The easiest motive to understand is the fan who buys the club they’ve always supported. Few of us get to choose which club we align ourselves to – the choice is instead often made for us by family, friends or locality. </p>
<p>Being a fan is similar to being locked into a monopoly – there is no other option. So the best way to ensure that your club is run the way you think it should be is to buy it yourself, like businessman <a href="https://www.brighton.ac.uk/about-us/news-and-events/news/2018/08-03-why-tony-bloom-bought-the-albion.aspx#:%7E:text=Tony%20Bloom%20took%20over%20Brighton%20%26%20Hove%20Albion,%E2%80%93%20not%20for%20business%20reasons.%203%20August%202018">Tony Bloom with Brighton & Hove Albion</a> or the TV chef Delia Smith <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2677785.stm">with Norwich City</a>. </p>
<p>Then there are owners that see a potential investment to take a loss-making club and turn it into a profitable one (or at least profitable enough to sell on at a higher price). You need to invest money to do this of course, but it is possible. </p>
<p>It is also possible to take a valuable club and make it less so. Mike Ashley may have bought Newcastle for £134 million in 2007 and just sold it for £305 million, but its <a href="https://www.themag.co.uk/2021/04/forbes-2021-most-valuable-clubs-no-newcastle-but-look-in-2007-when-mike-ashley-bought-nufc-newcastle-united/">relative value as a club</a> compared to its competitors in the Premier League, fell over the period of his ownership.</p>
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<img alt="A football surrounded by dollar bills." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425937/original/file-20211012-19-1wdo0kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425937/original/file-20211012-19-1wdo0kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425937/original/file-20211012-19-1wdo0kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425937/original/file-20211012-19-1wdo0kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425937/original/file-20211012-19-1wdo0kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425937/original/file-20211012-19-1wdo0kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425937/original/file-20211012-19-1wdo0kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Moneyball?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/crystall-soccer-ball-dollar-bill-football-1823860814">Shutterstock/muratart</a></span>
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<p>And while there are many ways to improve a football club’s fortunes, pretty much all of them involve heavy investment. Money for better players, money for better training facilities, money for better coaches and medical staff. </p>
<p>But aside from the significant costs, the benefits of owning a football club can be seen in the expertise, brand expansion and saved costs of sharing resources across a business empire, which again is particularly apparent in the Premier League. </p>
<p>In total, seven (that’s roughly a third) of the current Premier League majority owners also own at least one other sports team, and three own other football clubs outside England. Arsenal owner Stan Kroenke has Colorado Rapids in the US. Brentford owner Matthew Benham has Football Club Midtjylland in Denmark. Manchester City owner Shekh Mansour has many clubs worldwide within the City Group. </p>
<p>Some teams (Arsenal again, Leeds and Manchester United), have owners who also have American football teams (NFL) as part of their sporting business portfolio. </p>
<p>That is not a coincidence. From sharing backroom staff to developing specialist equipment to sharing ideas, there is much to be gained from <a href="https://theconversation.com/football-in-europe-is-being-transformed-by-us-private-equity-firms-heres-how-157445">crossover industries</a>. So perhaps, for these people at least, owning a football club is a clever business tactic after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Philippou is a Newcastle supporter that teaches on the Premier League's EAM program..She is also affiliated with Fair Game, an organisation championing sustainability in football.</span></em></p>Running a successful club requires more than money. But the money certainly helps.Christina Philippou, Principal Lecturer, Accounting and Financial Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1593122021-04-20T14:47:49Z2021-04-20T14:47:49ZEuropean Super League: a history of splits over money in professional sport<p>The world of European football experienced one of the biggest shake-ups in its history when a prospective <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56794673">European Super League</a> (ESL) was announced. Fans, football associations and even the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/the-european-super-league-what-can-boris-johnson-do-about-it">government</a> united in condemning the new tournament, which was criticised as “a cynical project founded on the self-interest of a few clubs”.</p>
<p>Described as a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2021/apr/19/european-super-league-latest-reaction-to-breakaway-football-competition-live?page=with:block-607d82a78f08080a7ae65413with">new midweek competition</a>”, the league was initially announced with 12 founding members from across Europe, including the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56795811">six “top” English football clubs</a> (who have now <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/20/european-super-league-unravelling-as-manchester-city-and-chelsea-withdraw">reportedly pulled out</a>, throwing the creation of the tournament into jeopardy). These founding clubs could not be relegated from the competition – one of the major points of contention. </p>
<p>The draw for these clubs is easy to understand. Each of the founding teams <a href="https://qz.com/1998582/how-much-tv-money-could-the-european-super-league-command/">would receive</a> an expected €3.5 billion (£3.02 billion) to join, plus €10 billion (£8.6 billion) for an “initial commitment period”. </p>
<p>In a statement, the Football Supporters’ Association voiced: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>This competition is being created behind our backs by billionaire club owners who have zero regard for the game’s traditions and continue to treat football as their personal fiefdom.</p>
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<p>There is an overwhelming sense from all angry parties that owners of the already wealthy clubs have sought further financial domination by distorting competition. </p>
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<p>The initial outrage will give way to more measured thought and criticism, but the burning questions are whether this model represents a realistic challenge to the current style of competition and what the consequences would be for both the European and domestic English game. The history of sport can offer some clues.</p>
<h2>A history of break-ups and conciliation</h2>
<p>Sport has historically been mired in splits and divisions. Football experienced such episodes during the last quarter of the 19th century with the separation between football and rugby football and then the latter into the amateur Rugby Union and the professionalised Rugby League. </p>
<p>The Premier League itself was the result of a split away from the Football League in 1992. The Football Association wanted to exploit the developing commercial opportunities, notably the sale of broadcasting rights. The legal challenge by the jilted Football League failed and the Premier League clubs have since prospered, largely thanks to the new subscription model of broadcasting.</p>
<p>Cricket’s great split occurred in 1977 over the allocation of broadcasting rights to Australian cricket. TV magnate <a href="https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/haigh-on-the-wsc-323297">Kerry Packer</a> wanted the rights to show Australian matches but was rebuffed as the traditional relationship with the state broadcaster (ABC) prevailed. </p>
<p>Packer’s response was to launch his own competition, the innovative World Series Cricket, and in great secrecy contracted the world’s leading players, including England captain Tony Greig. <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/may/13/newsid_2512000/2512249.st">Greig was duly sacked</a> and players earning a living in England who had signed were banned from playing in England. The resulting court case went in favour of the players and the bans were rescinded. World Series Cricket ran for two seasons, embracing new ideas such as coloured clothing and games that were played later in the day and continued into the evening (known as day/night games), which attracted spectators and made the more traditional offering appear jaded. </p>
<p>The financial pressure on the Australian Cricket Board led to an inevitable compromise and Packer gaining the broadcasting rights. </p>
<p>More recently, the Board for Cricket Control in India (BCCI) fought off the challenge by the broadcasting-driven India Cricket League (ICL). A combination of player bans and improved prize money in existing competitions were used. However, it was the formation of its own competition, the highly successful <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ipl-history/indian-premier-league-how-it-all-started/articleshow/19337875.cms">Indian Premier League</a>, that proved the trump card. The ICL was strangled in infancy. The Packer affair and the Indian Premier League clearly demonstrate that new markets for a traditional sport could be developed and exploited.</p>
<h2>Possible outcomes</h2>
<p>These examples point towards possible outcomes for football. </p>
<p>Broadcasting income is a key driver of sports and since the formation of the Premier League and sale of the rights to Sky, new players – BT and Amazon – have entered the market, driving up the value of the content. The big clubs want a larger slice of this and other commercial income, arguing that it is their profile and popularity that attracts subscribers and viewers. </p>
<p>A new formula for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jun/07/premier-league-big-six-win-battle-overseas-television-rights">international broadcasting income</a> has already been agreed upon. Where previously the income from sharing rights was split equally, the top six clubs now receive larger sums. Any changes to the system would no doubt apply pressure to approve a new domestic formula. </p>
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<p>A threat to potentially <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56795811">ban teams and players involved in the ESL</a> from the Premier League will have concentrated the minds of those clubs who are dependent on broadcasting income for their viability. The smaller clubs have less in the way of gate receipts and other commercial income so are very vulnerable to any decrease in TV revenue. A domestic league without the big six clubs has significantly decreased value and the same arguments apply at European level. </p>
<p>Fans have protested about the rich clubs getting richer and the betrayal of tradition, but the combination of the attractiveness of the Premier League product, ironically created by a split orchestrated by the FA, and the willingness of club owners to exploit their assets suggests a willingness to actively pursue change. The decision for the national governing bodies across Europe and the Uefa itself is whether to embrace and incorporate change and inevitably cede some control or stand firm and fight off the threat and with it consign professional football into a maelstrom of uncertainty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Greenfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From the emergence of Premier League to Cricket’s newer formats, the history of professional sport is full of breakups.Steve Greenfield, Professor of Sports Law and Practice, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1592922021-04-19T17:49:10Z2021-04-19T17:49:10ZEuropean Super League: why punishing the breakaway 12 could backfire badly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395796/original/file-20210419-23-hqr4jf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/soccer-ball-95315320">Mikhael Damkier</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The football world has been rocked by the announcement of a breakaway European Super League (ESL). The majority think it a bad idea, from governing bodies <a href="https://www.fifa.com/who-we-are/news/fifa-statement-x3487">Fifa</a> and <a href="https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/news/0268-12121411400e-7897186e699a-1000--statement-by-uefa-the-english-football-association-the-premier-/">Uefa</a> through to national bodies such as the FA and English Premier League. </p>
<p>The same goes for the fan groups at the six English clubs that comprise half of the ESL’s initial membership of 12: Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal from England. The remaining founders are Barcelona, Real Madrid and Athletico Madrid from Spain; and Juventus, AC Milan and Inter from Italy. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/bayern-munich-and-borussia-dortmund-not-joining-european-super-league">top German</a> and French clubs are <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakgarnerpurkis/2021/04/19/why-paris-saint-germain-and-bayern-munich-bailed-on-the-super-league/?sh=43482dd299f5">not participating</a>. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/explainer-how-will-the-new-european-super-league-work">proposed system</a>, these 12 clubs would join three more unconfirmed founder members and five additional clubs that would have to qualify each year. They would play midweek fixtures in two mini-leagues of ten clubs, with the highest finishers progressing to knock-out stages and eventually a final each May. </p>
<p>Effectively replacing the <a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/">Uefa Champions League</a>, the founders stand to receive €3.5 billion (£2.5 billion) in initial infrastructure payments between them, plus €10 billion for an “initial commitment period”. The 12 clubs propose to compete in their national leagues as normal. </p>
<p>The proposals are considered so outrageous that even the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/ministers-urged-to-take-action-over-european-super-league-plan">vowing to</a> find a way to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/government-pledges-to-stop-english-clubs-joining-european-super-league">block them</a> – despite not being known for his love of football. Pundits, <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12279996/gary-neville-on-european-super-league-plans-im-fuming-but-it-wont-go-through-not-a-chance">including Gary Neville</a>, the former Manchester United defender, have also been showing exasperation. </p>
<p>The ESL is being condemned as money-grabbing, since it would mostly be a “closed shop” without the jeopardy of relegation for founding clubs. Many consider it against the spirit of football’s long history, particularly with lower-league outfits struggling from the pandemic. </p>
<p>Neville thinks there is “not a chance” the proposals will go ahead, given the huge opposition. Others <a href="https://www.fourfourtwo.com/us/features/european-super-league-teams-champions-league-reforms-arsenal-man-utd-city-liverpool-tottenham-chelsea">suggest they could</a> be intended as a bargaining chip as <a href="https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/mediaservices/mediareleases/news/0268-1213f7aa85bb-d56154ff8fe8-1000--new-uefa-club-competition-formats-from-2024-25/">Uefa unveils</a> a revamped and expanded Champions League, which it says will take place regardless of the ESL proposals. </p>
<p>In England, many also want the football authorities to punish the “big six”. Relegations, expulsions and bans on players competing in the Euros and World Cup are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/super-league-players-face-world-cup-and-euros-ban-warns-furious-uefa-chief">being mooted</a>. </p>
<p>But we suggest that everybody pauses for breath. Acting harshly against these clubs could achieve exactly the opposite effect to what is intended. </p>
<h2>Pots and kettles</h2>
<p>Authorities such as the English Premier League (EPL) may struggle to win hearts and minds by invoking football’s history. The EPL itself broke away from the English Football League in 1992, and the football authorities and fans were just as enraged at the time. Relegation was included in the proposal, although the clubs did not ask permission for the structure they created. </p>
<p>With the lion’s share of English football broadcasting revenues going to Premier League clubs, many in football <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/05/10/premier-league-spending-obscene-greedy-threatening-future-lower/">already criticise</a> the footballing pyramid. Not enough money filters down to the lower leagues, they argue, while years of transfer-price and wage inflation drove numerous clubs to the brink even before the pandemic.</p>
<p>Amid the empty stadiums of 2020-21, <a href="https://theconversation.com/english-football-why-financial-calamity-facing-clubs-is-even-worse-than-in-mainland-europe-147156">football is facing</a> a choice: watch more clubs go to the wall or consider some kind of reset with reduced player salaries, regulated transfers, agents removed from the game, and resources distributed more equally. </p>
<p>The clubs behind the ESL appear to be rejecting this form of sustainable austerity. They are positioning themselves above rather than atop the existing pyramid. Of course, with some <a href="https://www.espn.co.uk/football/barcelona/story/4301666/barcelonas-debt-is-greater-than-1-billion-forget-bringing-back-neymarthey-cant-even-afford-eric-garcia">sitting on</a> more than €1 billion of debt, receiving a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f00bb232-a150-4f7d-b26a-e1b62cd175c3?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content">signing-on bonus</a> of €200 million to €300 million may solve their own financial crises.</p>
<h2>What happens next</h2>
<p>The ESL could be a bargaining chip, of course. The big clubs have long sought Champions League reforms that benefit them financially, and timing the announcement a day ahead of Uefa confirming the Champions League revamp was clearly no accident. </p>
<p>Adding games to the congested football calendar is not something any leading club will relish. So perhaps the ESL proposal melts away in the coming days on the back of a compromise with Uefa. As Neville has pointed out, <a href="https://accessaa.co.uk/project-big-picture-scrapped-manchester-united-down-70m/">something similar happened</a> with the English Premier League in 2020 having a plan to further strengthen the big clubs called <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/gary-neville-european-super-league-sky-sports-interview-b930353.html">Project Big Picture</a>. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the big clubs could be seeking an extreme reaction from football authorities to enable them to go further. Maybe a standalone league is what the owners really have in mind, rather than the parallel mid-week league proposed.</p>
<p>The model we need to consider is that of top American sports such as American football or basketball, where there is no relegation and teams travel thousands of miles to play. They schedule matches abroad on neutral venues, and often move the team to a new city without any care for their local fan-base. </p>
<p>That owners refer to clubs as “franchises” is <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/raiders-las-vegas-move-explained/26kge720q0dv1stx8mwfqij0q">instructive</a> here: four of the proposed ESL founder clubs have US owners with arguably little interest in football except for its earning potential. </p>
<p>You can imagine them thinking a group of 20 clubs from Europe will act like a gigantic vacuum cleaner to suck all the cash from football broadcast revenues and sponsorship. Teams can play multiple times each year, and why not have the local Madrid or Manchester derbies played to packed audiences in Rio, Shanghai or LA? Indeed, why restrict yourself to European clubs when you could also add rivals from South America, the US or China?</p>
<p>To counter this threat, the governing bodies and national leagues need to keep the 12 teams in their competitions. If such a standalone league effectively became – excuse the pun – the only game in town, it might matter little to individual players if they were banned from playing for national teams. They could console themselves with the even greater salaries likely to be on offer as the whole world watches their every game.</p>
<p>We certainly don’t think the ESL would be good for the game, but knee-jerk measures could do untold damage to all outside of the elite. It could squander a once-in-a-generation opportunity to remodel the Champions League and ensure that football at all levels remains financially viable. It may come down to who has the strongest brand: the football authorities, leagues or clubs – at the moment it seems the clubs have confidence in the answer to this question.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian R. Bell receives funding from the AHRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Brooks receives funding from Innovate UK and the ESRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Urquhart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everyone seems united against the new proposals, but can they really be stopped?Adrian R Bell, Chair in the History of Finance and Research Dean, Prosperity and Resilience, Henley Business School, University of ReadingAndrew Urquhart, Associate Professor of Finance, ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of ReadingChris Brooks, Professor of Finance, Henley Business School, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1176132019-05-23T08:14:59Z2019-05-23T08:14:59ZArsenal’s Mkhitaryan omission from Europa League Baku final highlights football’s global politics at its most fragile<p>When English Premier League sides Chelsea and Arsenal meet in UEFA’s Europa League final on May 29, one of the latter’s big name players will not be with his team. Henrikh Mkhitaryan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/may/21/arsenal-henrikh-khitaryan-miss-europa-league-final-safety-chelsea-baku">won’t be playing</a> in the match – one of the most important games of the season for Arsenal.</p>
<p>The reason? The game is being played at the Olympic Stadium in Baku, Azerbaijan. Mkhitaryan is an Armenian – and Armenia and Azerbaijan have an <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/05/21/the-footballer-caught-up-in-armenias-conflict-with-azerbaijan">enduringly fractious relationship</a>, dating back to the fall of the Russian empire in 1917. Currently, there are no diplomatic relations between them, principally because of a conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory inside Azerbaijan’s current borders. Arsenal said, in a statement: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have thoroughly explored all the options for Micki to be part of the squad but after discussing this with Micki and his family we have collectively agreed he will not be in our travelling party. We have written to UEFA expressing our deep concerns about this situation. Micki has been a key player in our run to the final so this is a big loss for us from a team perspective.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Under normal circumstances, Mkhitaryan wouldn’t be allowed into Azerbaijan, though <a href="https://talksport.com/football/547273/henrikh-mkhitaryan-arsenal-baku-europa-league-final-azerbaijan/">Azerbaijan’s UK ambassador has insisted</a> that he is welcome (and would be safe) providing he confines himself simply to playing football. The Armenian international and his club seemingly think otherwise.</p>
<p>We’ve been here before – earlier in the season <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/oct/03/qarabag-gurbanov-arsenal-saved-henrikh-mkhitaryan-home-azerbaijan-europa-league-football">Mkhitaryan didn’t travel to play against Qarabag</a>, an Azerbaijani team, in a previous round of the Europa League. Furthermore, we know that clubs and national associations are often mindful of the consequences that international conflicts between countries can have on football.</p>
<p>Already this year we have seen issues with Qatar qualifying to play in the AFC Asian Cup in the United Arab Emirates, a country with which it doesn’t have diplomatic relations. Matches involving Israel or Israeli players frequently prove difficult – for instance, in 2006, Yossi Benayoun and Yaniv Katan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2006/apr/11/newsstory.sport6">were left out of a traininng trip to Dubai</a> by their club West Ham. There have been issues in the UK, too, including when <a href="https://thesefootballtimes.co/2015/05/30/ossie-ardiles-tottenham-and-the-falkland-islands/">Argentinian Osvaldo Ardiles</a> needed to move on loan from Tottenham Hotspur to Paris Saint Germain following the outbreak of the Falklands War in May 1982.</p>
<h2>Level playing field?</h2>
<p>UEFA itself is not blind to the sometimes highly charged, political nature of the sport. Indeed, during draws for both international and club matches, European football’s governing body keeps some countries apart given the state of relations between them. As such, Azerbaijani and Armenian teams <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/oct/21/footballs-unbreakable-records">don’t face one another in competition</a> nor do, for example, <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-uefa-russia-ukraine/uefa-keeps-russian-and-ukrainian-clubs-apart-idUKKBN0FM1V520140717">Ukraine and Russia</a>.</p>
<p>Yet there’s something different about Mkhitaryan’s case, not least because he can hardly be characterised as a mainstay of the Arsenal team following his <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42762918">big money move</a> from Manchester United early in 2018. Rather, UEFA’s selection of Baku to host a game of this nature has been controversial from the outset, most recently because of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/may/10/arsenal-chelsea-6000-tickets-europa-league-final">unusually small number of tickets</a> – 6,000 per team – allocated to Arsenal and Chelsea. This is despite the city’s National Stadium having a capacity of 68,000.</p>
<p>One apparent reason for this is that Baku’s airport is <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baku-airport-too-small-to-accommodate-more-chelsea-and-arsenal-fans-8w9tvm7l9">unable to handle large volumes of people</a>, an explanation that has provoked derision from a mass of London fans keen to attend the game. It doesn’t help that Azerbaijan is not easy to get to from Britain – it’s a 6,000 mile round trip that is costly and time-consuming to undertake. Even before Mkhitaryan’s withdrawal from the match, many had been calling for it to be played elsewhere.</p>
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<p>Several groups, including <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/azerbaijan">Human Rights Watch</a> and <a href="https://rsf.org/en/azerbaijan">Reporters Without Borders</a>, have long been highlighting the actions of government in Baku. Azerbaijan is frequently accused of denying press freedoms, violating human rights, and <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/gv77m7/human-rights-abuses-and-the-european-games-in-azerbaijan">using sport</a> as a means through which to wash the country’s tarnished image and reputation. The country is also scandal riven, most notably the <a href="https://www.occrp.org/en/azerbaijanilaundromat/">Laundromat money laundering scam</a> which ultimately engulfed the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.</p>
<h2>Winds of change</h2>
<p>All of which begs the question as to why UEFA took its decision in 2017 to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/may/16/uefa-handed-azerbaijan-europa-league-final-baku-chelsea-arsenal">award Baku the hosting rights</a> to the 2019 Europa League final. In simple terms, over the past decade, the winds of egalitarianism have been blowing through the corridors of the governing body’s headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland. Former president Michel Platini was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/18657633">elected on a manifesto</a> that included awarding hosting rights to countries beyond Western Europe.</p>
<p>In many ways, the current president, <a href="https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/about-uefa/president/">Aleksander Čeferin</a>, is part of Platini’s legacy: a Slovenian lawyer, he is supposedly committed to ensuring that European football is not controlled by a small number of powerful nations. Unsurprisingly, therefore, it was on his watch that the Azerbaijani capital won the race to stage this season’s Europa League final (even though, just three weeks earlier, the Laundromat scandal had just broken).</p>
<p>At the time, UEFA likely had an eye on the financial benefits of playing matches in a wealthy oil and gas-endowed nation that has been spending big on sport. Not only does Baku have newly built infrastructure capable of successfully delivering mega events, it also has an affluent middle class willing to spend on them. It’s also worth remembering that, in recent years, UEFA has benefited from a lucrative <a href="https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/mediaservices/mediareleases/newsid=1952828.html?redirectFromOrg=true">sponsorship deal with SOCAR</a> – the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic.</p>
<p>It seems ironic that Azerbaijan’s growing international prominence and its massive programme of spending on sport are embodied in the “<a href="http://bakuprocess.az/forums/baku-forum-2019/introduction/">Baku Process</a>” – an initiative launched by the country in 2008 with a mission to promote international understanding, dialogue and respect. Whether the country likes it or not, Mkhitaryan, two English clubs and a European football match are now shining a spotlight on the differences between the country’s rhetoric and its reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Chadwick teaches on UEFA's education and professional development programmes. He has previously undertaken research for UEFA.</span></em></p>Arsenal’s Armenian star will not travel to Baku in Azerbaijan for the clash with Chelsea – and nor will many of the clubs’ fans.Simon Chadwick, Professor of Sports Enterprise, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/973302018-05-28T13:24:22Z2018-05-28T13:24:22ZWhen the poor sponsor the rich: Rwanda and Arsenal FC<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220617/original/file-20180528-80658-35bz8h.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Arsenal FC's new sponsor is Rwanda.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/search?q=Visit%20Rwanda&src=typd">Twitter/@Arsenal</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rwanda keeps surprising. Recently the Rwandan Development Board signed a <a href="https://www.arsenal.com/news/club-welcomes-visit-rwanda-new-partner">sleeve sponsoring deal</a> with London Premier League club, Arsenal. Over a three-year period, the 200 sq centimetre ad “Visit Rwanda” will cost the country USD$39 million. </p>
<p>President Paul Kagame is known to be a <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/05/23/rwanda-becomes-arsenal-s-first-sleeve-sponsor-in-3-year-partnership//">committed Arsenal fan</a>. Recently, he even tweeted that the club needed a new coach after Arsenal’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/43846363">once invincible</a> league and cup winning manager Arsene Wenger’s poor record over the past number of seasons. One may suppose that it is a coincidence that the deal was struck just after Wenger’s retirement at the end of the 2017/18 season.</p>
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<p>Rwanda is the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD">19th poorest country</a> in the world with a per capita income of around USD$700. Arsenal is one of the <a href="http://www.cityam.com/257361/arsenal-chelsea-tottenham-and-west-ham-make-london-home">richest football clubs</a> in the world. It’s not surprising therefore that the nearly USD$40 million has upset quite a few people. </p>
<p>Dutch lawmakers, including some from the governing coalition, immediately <a href="http://ktpress.rw/2018/05/dutch-mps-annoyed-by-rwanda-arsenal-fc-deal/">reacted angrily</a> to the news that such a poor country receiving a great deal of aid from The Netherlands would sponsor one of the world’s richest soccer clubs. Similar reactions could be heard in the UK, Rwanda’s second largest bilateral donor. An MP <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world/africa">described</a> the deal as “an own goal for foreign aid”. </p>
<p>In addition, those concerned with democracy and human rights think the deal is sending the wrong message about a country that has a strong <a href="https://theconversation.com/presidential-term-limits-slippery-slope-back-to-authoritarianism-in-africa-96796">authoritarian streak</a> running through it. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-rwandas-development-model-wouldnt-work-elsewhere-in-africa-89699">Why Rwanda's development model wouldn't work elsewhere in Africa</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The question is: Is Kagame entering into a deal with his favourite club to promote tourism or has he done it to enhance his image and shield him from criticism? He appears to have made the <a href="http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/fileadmin/templates/documents/BUdget_Management_and_Reporting_Unit/Budget_Framework_Papers/2017-2020_Budget_Framework_Paper.pdf">decision</a> off his own bat: the contract appears not to have been discussed in the cabinet and the money does not figure in the budget approved by parliament.</p>
<h2>Rwanda’s rationale</h2>
<p>For the Rwandan government, the deal is part of a broader strategy to develop <a href="https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/countries-2018/rwanda2018.pdf">tourism</a>, which in 2017 accounted for about 12.7% of GDP and USD$400 million of revenue. The country sees upmarket leisure and convention tourism as an important growth sector. It has a lot going for it: lush green landscapes, the mountain gorillas of the Virunga volcanos, the Akagera wildlife park, the tropical Nyungwe forest, idyllic Lake Kivu, and even genocide memorials – all compressed into a space of just 26,000 sq kms.</p>
<p>This strategy is integrated and makes sense on paper. The state has invested heavily in its national airline<a href="https://www.rwandair.com/"> RwandAir</a> and built the Kigali Convention Centre and high-end hotels. And the development of the new Bugesera International Airport, designed to become a major regional hub, is underway. </p>
<p>But there are doubts about the profitability of these ventures. For instance, RwandAir has yet <a href="https://www.afritraveller.com/single-post/2017/08/28/Aggressive-Marketing-RwandAir-Reduces-Losses-to-1million">to break even</a> 14 years after it was launched. The government <a href="http://www.therwandan.com/rwandair-bankrupting-rwanda/">keeps it afloat</a> with an annual grant of USD$50 million just for operations.</p>
<p>Investments in a constantly expanding fleet to cater for an ever growing network of continental and intercontinental destinations require considerable borrowing at a high cost. The fiscal <a href="https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1458768/rwandas-risky-bet-prosperous-economic-future">risk</a> involved in the government’s strategy is high, and economists wonder how sustainable these outlays will be in the medium term.</p>
<p>Calculations like these are for the Rwandan government to consider. But has Arsenal considered the signal it’s giving in light of Kagame’s human rights and democracy records?</p>
<h2>Risks for Arsenal</h2>
<p>Canadian investigative journalist Judi Rever recently <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-monday-full-episode-1.4602119/canadian-journalist-challenges-rwandan-genocide-narrative-in-new-book-1.4602122">recorded in a book</a>, “In Praise of Blood: The Crimes of the Rwandan Patriotic Front”, that the Rwandan regime has massacred tens if not hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, particularly in the 1990s. </p>
<p>And last year <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/rwanda">Human Rights Watch</a> issued worrying reports about human rights abuses. These included the rounding up and arbitrary detention of poor people in “transit centres” across the country, widespread repression in land cases, extrajudicial killings and unlawful detention and torture in military facilities. </p>
<p>In October 2017 the United Nations subcommittee on Prevention of Torture <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-41513811">suspended</a> its visit to Rwanda because of “a series of obstructions imposed by the authorities”. It was only the third time in 10 years the subcommittee has done this. </p>
<p>On top of this there has been widespread analysis and commentary on the state of democracy in Rwanda. The country is a <em>de facto</em> one-party state with no meaningful political opposition, no press freedom and no independent civil society. </p>
<p>Kagame’s grip on power is absolute and in August last year he was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/05/paul-kagame-secures-third-term-in-rwanda-presidential-election">reelected</a> with over 98% of the vote. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/20/rwanda-vote-gives-president-paul-kagame-extended-powers">referendum</a> on a constitutional amendment in 2015 gave him the right to stay office until 2034.</p>
<p>Realising that battles are fought in the media as much, if not more than on the ground, Kagame’s party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) has developed a formidable information and communication <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/reports/1999/rwanda/Geno15-8-03.htm">strategy</a> stretching back to the civil war it launched in October 1990.</p>
<p>Kagame once <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=qMi8CwAAQBAJ&pg=PA225&lpg=PA225&dq=Kagame+:+We+used+communication+and+information+warfare+better+than+anyone.+We+have+found+a+new+way+of+doing+things.&source=bl&ots=c02IPqnffm&sig=jxE09JPPgsHbjPXcOOR1tSB6-Lo&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi_wZiOkKjbAhVpBMAKHXPaADkQ6AEIJjAA#v=onepage&q=Kagame%20%3A%20We%20used%20communication%20and%20information%20warfare%20better%20than%20anyone.%20We%20have%20found%20a%20new%20way%20of%20doing%20things.&f=false">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We used communication and information warfare better than anyone. We have found a new way of doing things. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This has involved paying those who can help promote the right image, including <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=dX4LAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA188&lpg=PA188&dq=Rwanda+W2+Group+at+the+cost+of+US$50,000+per+month&source=bl&ots=K_Itl3UI_t&sig=JYFJVP5vXlWUknNJaV3o1kYnd-0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj84q2kkKjbAhXJLMAKHVE5APkQ6AEIJjAA#v=onepage&q=Rwanda%20W2%20Group%20at%20the%20cost%20of%20US%2450%2C000%20per%20month&f=false">public relations firms</a>. </p>
<h2>Political ethics and sport</h2>
<p>True, political ethics and sports don’t match well. Until recently FC Barcelona agreed to a Qatar sponsorship that saw the country featured on the team’s jerseys. Qatar has a very chequered political record. Due to host the 2022 World Cup, it’s <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/middle-east-and-north-africa/qatar/report-qatar/">known</a> for its notorious human rights abuse, especially when it comes to the rights of migrant workers and women. </p>
<p>Another example is Atlético Madrid which was controversially <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/04/football-sponsored-shirts-shame-atletico-madrid-azerbaijan">sponsored by Azerbaijan</a>, where the Euro 2020 football tournament will take place. This east European country has been <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/europe-and-central-asia/azerbaijan/">flagged by Amnesty International</a> for its “crackdown on the right to freedom of expression, particularly following revelations of large-scale political corruption”.</p>
<p>Not that it should make any difference, but these two countries are very rich, while Rwanda is very poor.</p>
<p>And I nearly forgot: Many Arsenal fans were <a href="https://news.arseblog.com/2018/05/arsenal-reveal-sleeve-sponsor-for-2018-19-season/">opposed to the deal</a>, not because of Rwanda’s human rights and democracy records, but because they didn’t like the design of the sleeve print.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Filip Reyntjens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Political ethics and sports don’t match well. The recent deal between Rwanda and Arsenal is potentially a case in point.Filip Reyntjens, Professor of Law and Politics, Institute of Development Policy and Management (IOB), University of AntwerpLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/852832017-10-11T12:30:53Z2017-10-11T12:30:53ZPremier League giants go hunting for a bigger slice of the pie … and it will harm the game<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189647/original/file-20171010-17673-1028mlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C40%2C3301%2C2182&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bangkok-thailand-august-5-logo-manchester-690392746?src=z46AN09ocNAiiWwZaVqSpw-4-69">charnsitr/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the English Premier League was founded in 1992, clubs agreed an egalitarian system for distributing Sky TV money. Skip forward 25 years, and that model is under threat after the 20 Premier League clubs <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-england-finance/smaller-premier-league-clubs-to-argue-for-balance-in-tv-cash-split-idUKKCN1C80TX">met to discuss</a> how to share future international TV rights.</p>
<p>Overseas broadcasters have discovered that Premier League football is a key vehicle to deliver subscriptions. The money paid to broadcast football has increased considerably. Glancing back to 1992 shows broadcast <a href="http://www.totalsportek.com/money/premier-league-tv-rights-deals-history-1992-2019/">revenue of £192m</a>. In the current cycle (2016-19), these payments total about £8.1 billion (£5.1 billion from the UK and £3 billion international). The cost of international rights is expected to <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-4525808/Premier-League-earn-billions-thanks-foreign-TV-deals.html">rise further</a>. </p>
<p>Six clubs now want a change in the formula for spreading this source of revenue. They <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/sports/soccer/premier-league-tv.html">want a bigger</a> slice of the pie but, perhaps unsurprisingly, many other clubs are opposed to the proposals. No consensus has yet been reached, and a vote on the matter has been deferred until November.</p>
<h2>The Big Six?</h2>
<p>The dissent in the ranks is driven by the “Big Six” clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur. They believe they are the key force behind the popularity of the Premier League in overseas territories, and are therefore entitled to greater financial reward.</p>
<p>In 2016, the Big Six received 70% of Premier League matchday income, 77% of commercial income, but “only” 43% of broadcast income. In their mind, they are effectively subsidising the other clubs. The argument put forward is that overseas TV fans will only tune in to watch the Big Six. They evidence this by the viewing figures for individual matches. </p>
<p>Premier League TV rights are initially divided into a number of “pots”. Domestic rights consist of three pots: 50% divided equally, 25% based on the number of TV appearances, and 25% on final league position. International rights are split evenly between all 20 clubs. </p>
<p>Overall, the ratio between the club generating the highest amount of Premier League TV income in 2016/17 (Chelsea) and that of the club bottom of the league (Sunderland) was 1.6:1. So for every £100 of Premier League TV income generated by Sunderland, Chelsea earned £160. This ratio in other European countries is at least 2:1. </p>
<p>The Big Six also believe that the present TV arrangement <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/sports-business-group/deloitte-uk-sport-football-money-league-2017.pdf">gives them a financial disadvantage</a> in relation to other large European clubs, such as Real Madrid and Barcelona. </p>
<p>Premier League chairman, Richard Scudamore, has <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/09/27/premier-leagues-big-six-fail-first-attempt-increase-tv-share/">proposed a change</a> for international rights whereby 65% would be shared evenly and 35% based on league position (“merit payment”). But this has caused a falling out between club owners. The Big Six want more, ideally identical to the domestic TV rights formula. </p>
<p>One side effect of these proposals is that money paid to relegated clubs under “parachute payment” rules is likely to decrease, as they would not be entitled to merit payments. This would result in about £40m of existing parachute payments moving from relegated clubs to those remaining in the Premier League. </p>
<p>The chart below shows how things would change if Scudamore’s proposal was approved. </p>
<h2>Driving revenue</h2>
<p>Professional team sports need to benefit from the concept of <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/24748668.2012.11868603">competitive balance</a>. First pioneered in the 1950s and taking its origins from North American team sports, the theory suggests that to make a strong competition, you need a contest with equally matched opponents. </p>
<p>However, what tends to happen is that professional sport leagues produce games between teams with <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjpe.12066/full">unequal market power</a>. One team becomes dominant, reducing the spectacle of the competition and, therefore, its value to spectators, broadcasters and sponsors. </p>
<p>Professional team sports are intrinsically different from other businesses, in which a firm prospers if it can eliminate competition and establish a monopoly supplier position. In sport this doesn’t work. Competitive opponents are required at a level that produces excitement and jeopardy.</p>
<p>This is important in relation to the vote on Premier League TV rights. The league has even <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/this-is-pl/the-premier-league/final-standings">praised itself</a> for keeping broadcast distribution relatively equal compared to other big European leagues. And as a result the games tend to be more competitively balanced too. Smaller teams can invest money to secure better playing talent and compete more effectively. </p>
<p>It is true that top teams in the league have a bigger appeal to fans in a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27369580">global market</a>. But it is also true that what makes the Premier League such an attractive product is that, on any given day, any team has a realistic chance of beating another. And in extremis, a team like Leicester <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/35988673">might even win the league</a>.</p>
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<h2>The thin end of the wedge?</h2>
<p>If clubs agree to the Scudamore proposals, or accede to Big Six demands, then the outcomes will be challenging. </p>
<p>First, when most international rights are renegotiated from 2019 it is likely they will see an increase in value, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/10/05/premier-league-big-six-want-greater-share-overseas-tv-money/">by an estimated £1.2 billion</a> over three years. This will increase the money gap. If distributed evenly, every club in the Premier League would receive an extra £20 million a year. </p>
<p>Let’s not forget, the Big Six clubs are also far more likely to qualify for UEFA competitions, such as the Champions League, where they have a £30-90m financial advantage from separate TV rights. </p>
<p>The proposals will make the Premier League less competitive, potentially reducing the value of the competition’s brand and making it less attractive to viewers. The Leicester miracle will look more and more like a one-off; more likely will be Crystal Palace’s season so far, which has seen the London club lose its opening <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/manchester-united-4-crystal-palace-0-marouane-fellaini-hits-two-as-palace-lose-seventh-straight-game-a3647606.html">seven games without scoring a goal</a>. </p>
<p>When the clubs vote, any proposal will require a two-thirds majority to be approved. The Big Six must therefore convince another eight clubs that they have a sniff of tasting the increased riches on offer for league success. That will deliver another hit to the egalitarian spirit of 25 years ago. Turkeys don’t normally vote for Christmas but if these ones do, the future of the Premier League looks less competitive and ultimately, worth less too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Will England’s top-flight teams really decide to weaken their global blockbuster brand?Rob Wilson, Principal Lecturer in Sport Finance, Sheffield Hallam UniversityDan Plumley, Senior Lecturer in Sport Business Management, Sheffield Hallam UniversityKieran Maguire, Senior Teacher in Accountancy and member of Football Industries Group, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/790872017-06-11T08:39:15Z2017-06-11T08:39:15ZFanon on soccer: radically anti-capitalist, anti-commercial and anti-bourgeois<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172917/original/file-20170608-32325-jzuw33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alexis Sanchez celebrates Arsenal beating Chelsea in the 2017 FA Cup final.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Sibley/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Like a lot of kids the great Martinican/Algerian revolutionary <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2001/jan/13/biography.peterlennon">Frantz Fanon</a> loved playing soccer as a youngster. Returning to Martinique in 1945 after fighting in Europe and North Africa in World War II, Fanon continued to play soccer on a local team.</p>
<p>Soccer was always part of Fanon’s life. Nearly a decade after the war, he attempted to create a therapeutic community at Blida-Joinville Psychiatric Hospital in Algeria. He organised a soccer team in the institution and arranged for matches with other teams in the community. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Wretched-Earth-Frantz-Fanon/dp/0802141323">“The Wretched of the Earth”</a>, perhaps Fanon’s most famous book which was written in 1961, he reflects on the anti-colonial struggles in Africa and warns of upcoming challenges. The book was prescient and still remains relevant. But Fanon’s remarks on sport, which come in the central chapter “Pitfalls of National Consciousness”, have been little discussed.</p>
<p>Fanon writes,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The youth of Africa should not be oriented toward the stadiums but toward the fields, the fields and the schools. The stadium is not an urban showpiece but a rural space that is cleared, worked, and offered to the nation. The capitalist notion of sports is fundamentally different from that which should exist in an underdeveloped country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The context and framing of Fanon’s remarks is important. Remember, this was a period of epochal transformation. The end of formal colonial rule marked by independence. </p>
<p>Imagine the possibility of building solidarity and sociality in the midst of such turmoil? The idea that all are equal and the future is possible only together was one of Fanon’s guiding principles.</p>
<h2>Four billion followers</h2>
<p>One can only imagine what Fanon would have made of soccer today, especially that it has become so incredibly popular and so driven by money.</p>
<p>Soccer has <a href="http://www.totalsportek.com/most-popular-sports/">four billion followers</a> worldwide. According to the sport’s controlling body, FIFA, 270 million people (4% of the world’s population) are <a href="http://www.fifa.com/media/news/y=2007/m=5/news=fifa-big-count-2006-270-million-people-active-football-529882.html">actively involved</a> in the game. </p>
<p>Where it comes to professional soccer, obscene amounts of money are made. English Premier League team, Manchester United, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2017/06/06/the-worlds-most-valuable-soccer-teams-2017/#5cbceee177ea">rated</a> as the most valuable team in the world, is worth $3.69 billion. </p>
<p>In the pyramid of global soccer, with its players owned and managed by agents, third parties, management companies and so on, local football leagues are often very small cogs in hierarchical system. In Europe the <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/">English Premier League</a>, Spain’s <a href="http://kwese.espn.com/football/league/_/name/esp.1">La Liga</a>, the <a href="http://kwese.espn.com/search/results?q=Bundesliga#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=Bundesliga&gsc.page=1">Bundesliga</a> in Germany, followed by <a href="http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/italian-serie-a">Serie A</a> and <a href="http://www.ligue1.com/">Ligue 1</a>, in Italy and France respectively, vie for the best players. </p>
<p>The European war of the clubs is played out in the highly mediated Champions League. Fans support clubs which use all sorts of illegal and semi-legal means to extract players from the global South often through systems that mirrors the move from periphery to semi-periphery to centre (from Brazil to Portugal to Spain, or from West Africa to France and England and so on). </p>
<p>Everyone is aware of the transfer sagas. They include the valuations of humans, with <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/soccer/gallery/most-expensive-soccer-transfers-all-time-cristiano-ronaldo-gareth-bale-neymar-luis-suarez-072516">transfer fees </a>having already exceeded $110 million for some top players (and likely to go even higher now with transfer season open again), the scouting for young talent, the clubs’ rhetoric of “war chests”, the endless TV sport shows speculation about signings, and the school yard banter “we’ve got …” and “you’ve got f… all”.</p>
<h2>Laying of wreaths</h2>
<p>The culture industry was wonderfully reproduced at Wembley Stadium in May when Arsenal <a href="http://www.wembleystadium.com/Events/2017/FA-Cup-Final/Emirates-FA-Cup-Final">won</a> the FA Cup, beating Chelsea 2-1. The event was introduced not only by the national anthem, standard fare at these things, but also a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/may/26/manchester-attack-fa-cup-premiership-finals-minute-silence">minute’s silence</a> for the victims of the bombing in Manchester, the laying of wreaths, black armbands, and “I love MCR” signs which were shown multiple times on TV. </p>
<p>The mythology of nation is recreated in this “traditional” sporting event as an act of nostalgia and modernity. Here, globally networked, televised for a fee based international viewership, is “England”.</p>
<p>After they won Arsenal played The Clash’s 1979 punk-rock anthem, <a href="http://www.songfacts.com/detail.php?id=2527">“London Calling”</a>, to celebrate the “Emirates Cup” win at Wembley. The iconic English cup, branded as the oldest association football competition in the world, is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/28/fa-cup-sponsorship-emirates">now named after an airline</a>.</p>
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<p>One element of Premiership football is its international cast of star players. Only a minority of English players play in the “Premier League” – the most branded, most watched league in the world. <a href="http://www.arsenal.com/emirates-stadium/get-to...-emirates-stadium">The Emirates</a> (Arsenal’s branded stadium), whose name also evokes the shining lights of Abu Dhabi neoliberal turbo-capitalism and the super-rich, was opened by the royal right-winger Prince Phillip. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/sepp-blatter">Sepp Blatter</a>, formerly the head-crook at the sports controlling body FIFA, ranked the Queen of England as having more football knowledge than former Italian Prime Minister, AC Milan owner and fraudster, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11981754">Silvio Berlusconi</a>. </p>
<p>All in all, these are the types of nasty people who own the clubs and run a game. Everyone is aware of this hyper-capitalist story but the outrage is usually directed elsewhere. Fans want rich owners and often turn a blind eye to how they’ve got these riches.</p>
<p>It is all about money, of course. </p>
<p>Sport is also bigger than politics; people talk and argue about sports minutiae all the time. It is a space where ordinary people are allowed to be passionate and knowledgeable. Politics is elitist, technocratic and its discourse is typically opaque. Soccer — very often couched in masculine terms — is populist. </p>
<h2>Challenging the alienation</h2>
<p>Soccer is a social game, a team game. And we can imagine how Fanon considered it therapeutic with everything centred on his “patients” taking charge from creating the pitch and fielding a team, to finding “opponents” and developing schedules. All this was part of the social therapy that Fanon envisaged would help break down institutional hierarchies in the psychiatric hospital and foster social relations and challenging the alienation that was part of the institution.</p>
<p>When Fanon writes of sport “expanding minds” and the task of “humanising” he is concerned with a mental and psychological liberation, namely freeing the mind from the nervous conditions induced by colonialism and war and the unthinkingly reproduction that Europe be looked to for models. </p>
<p>Fanon here sounds a bit schoolmasterly telling the youth what they should do. But the larger question in these days of corporate global football dominated by European leagues and its teams, with each a “brand” most likely owned by multinational capital, is how can this model possibly be followed in the global south?</p>
<p>Fanon answer is unequivocal:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Comrade, the European game is finally over.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Instead,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The African politician should not be concerned with producing professional sportspeople, but conscious individuals who also practice sports. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But today, one would be hard pressed to find an African politician who would advocate this perspective. Politics is a dirty and corrupt game for personal game. The pragmatic African politician dismisses Fanon’s notions as Utopian. They are not concerned with social transformation but adaption to becoming cogs in the machine of global capital by any means. </p>
<p>What can we make of Fanon’s notion of what sport could be? </p>
<p>He offers a wholly different conception and imagination of sport, decolonisation, and the nation. </p>
<p>Can we imagine a different notion of sport? Not necessarily non-competitive but competitive in a different way: A decolonised notion that is radically anti-capitalist, radically anti-commercial and anti-bourgeois. This is what Fanon is asking us to think about.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79087/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nigel Gibson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>World soccer is the story of hyper-capitalism. What would fan and revolutionary thinker Frantz Fanon have thought about the state of the sport?Nigel Gibson, Associate Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies, Emerson CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/742882017-04-03T13:05:22Z2017-04-03T13:05:22ZHow Arsene Wenger changed the Premier League … and then dropped the ball<p>When Arsene Wenger was named as the <a href="http://www.arsenal.com/history/the-managers">new manager of Arsenal FC</a> in September 1996, English football was in a period of transition. The 1989 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19545126">Hillsborough disaster</a> had <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/04/26/the-legacy-of-hillsborough---how-football-has-changed/">led to a transformation</a> of the grounds and treatment of supporters, and the arrival of the Sky Sports TV channel heralded the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/from-the-archive-blog/2012/feb/02/20-years-premier-league-football-1992">formation of the Premier League</a> in the 1992-93 season. </p>
<p>At pitch level however, the game remained the same. Tactics, pre-match preparation, training methods, were all largely unchanged. When Wenger got his job at Arsenal, he was only the third foreign manager to take charge of a Premier League team. His background (a degree in economics), modest playing experience and bookish appearance seemed completely at odds with the environment that existed at Arsenal at the time. This was an environment best understood by the title of the then captain’s autobiography. Former central defender Tony Adams called his memoir “<a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Addicted-Tony-Adams/dp/0002187957">Addicted</a>”. But Arsenal were by no means the only club with an ingrained drinking culture during this period.</p>
<p>Like any great leader, however, Wenger could see into the future. In his first ten years at Arsenal he completely changed the philosophy of the game and achieved great success. But then he took his eyes off the ball. He missed the next set of big changes that forged how the Premier League evolved.</p>
<p>In the beginning Wenger’s tactics were considered to be ahead of their time, and thoughtful. His nickname, “the professor” reflected this. Part of his original approach was to focus on more than just match day. The “non-visible” preparation of his squad ranged from improving the food menu the players ate, to adjusting training methods to place more emphasis on ball control. </p>
<p>It seems strange now to think that these adjustments were in any way revolutionary, but at the time his methods were <a href="http://www.espnfc.co.uk/arsenal/story/2962671/arsenals-arsene-wenger-i-faced-resistance-as-a-foreigner-20-years-ago">met with resistance</a> by the players. Now <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football-wenger-thanks-arsenal-oldies-1144990.html">many of them credit Wenger</a> with extending their careers by a number of years. </p>
<p>A second key initiative was his ability to call on a network of scouts to help spot talented and undervalued players – especially from France. This brought him influential and talented footballers like Patrick Vieira, Robert Pires and Thierry Henry. He also used statistical data when purchasing players. This was not a new sporting tactic (think of the film <a href="http://www.sonypictures.com/movies/moneyball/">Moneyball</a> and what the Oakland A’s achieved in baseball by using <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-discussion-with-baseball-revolutionaries-billy-beane-and-bill-james-1442854375">statistical analysis</a>). But it was one of the first proper applications of it to English football. Clubs now employ full time statisticians and the data being collected has created <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/mar/09/premier-league-football-clubs-computer-analysts-managers-data-winning">a new industry</a> in offering analysis of it.</p>
<p>The success of this new strategy was almost immediate. Wenger was the first foreign manager to achieve the <a href="http://www.arsenal.com/history/the-wenger-years/double-double-wenger-does-it-again">league and cup double</a> in 1998, and then repeated this feat in 2002. Arsenal <a href="http://www.arsenal.com/history/the-wenger-years/arsenal-win-back-to-back-fa-cups">won the FA Cup</a> in 2003 and 2005, and in the 2003-04 season, the <a href="http://www.arsenal.com/history/the-wenger-years/the-2004-invincibles">team went unbeaten</a> in the Premier League. (This was only the second time this has been achieved. Preston North End had become the first “invincibles” in the inaugural season of the Football League in 1888-89.) </p>
<p>It was also the way in which Arsenal played that made this incredible achievement really stand out. Before Wenger arrived, the chant, “One-nil to the Arsenal”, reflected their focus on defence. The trophies won under their new manager saw a reinvention – a new focus on attack and playing the game with flair. </p>
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<p>After this, change again swept through the English game in the form of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/14/english-football-clubs-owned-abroad-tax-avoidance">huge amounts of overseas money</a>. The business of football had altered, and Arsenal and Wenger were slow to react. The fact that they also had to fund a <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-4108492/The-changing-face-London-football-Arsenal-West-Ham-moved-new-stadiums-10-years.html">huge new stadium</a> also complicated issues. Across London, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/3036838.stm">Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in 2003</a> and over the next decade, loaned the club just over £1 billion. The result? Some of the world’s best (and most expensive) <a href="http://talksport.com/football/chelseas-all-time-xi-roman-abramovich-era-200304-season-present-170123224854">players</a>, and no fewer than 15 major trophies – including the ultimate prize, the <a href="http://www.uefa.com/teamsandplayers/teams/club=52914/profile/index.html">Champions League trophy</a>.</p>
<p>Wenger first saw the influx of foreign money as a short term phenomenon and wanted to ensure that Arsenal had a sound financial basis rather than run the risk of overspending and bringing the club down. The result of this was in complete contrast to Chelsea. Between 2005 and 2014, Arsenal had a great new stadium, sound finances – and no major trophies. </p>
<h2>Playing the long game</h2>
<p>The club is now playing catch up. Since 2013 their spend on new players of £197m has only been exceeded by Manchester United and City. As a consequence, their runners up spot in the Premier League of 2015-16 was still considered disappointing, together with the increasingly familiar exit at Champions League quarter final stage. With so much at financial stake now a top four finish is a must. </p>
<p>After yet another early exit from the Champions Leagues (a particularly embarrassing <a href="http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10794348/arsene-wenger-under-pressure-after-10-2-aggregate-defeat-to-bayern-munich">10-2 aggregate defeat to Bayern Munich</a>), the calls for Wenger to go are <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/03/08/arsene-wengers-arsenal-future-latest-reaction-side-embarrassed/">getting louder every week</a>.</p>
<p>But Arsenal fans should be careful what they wish for. They owe Wenger plenty of gratitude for transforming the club. Yet rivals with deeper pockets have taken English football to the next level. Wenger’s background in economics will mean he knows that debt can bring quick results but risks long term damage. </p>
<p>With future TV deals <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/12141415/Premier-League-clubs-to-share-8.3-billion-TV-windfall.html">expected to bring even more money</a> into the game Arsenal must decide what model they want to follow. Should they gamble on the long term growth of TV revenues and spend big? Or do they continue to live within their current means? If Wenger does leave, Arsenal may need a new professor to explain what happens next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Gowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The French manager brought flair and fitness to the home of football.Rob Gowers, Senior Lecturer in Leadership and Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/708302017-01-17T15:28:11Z2017-01-17T15:28:11ZWhy football bets are far more profitable to bookmakers than gambling machines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153063/original/image-20170117-23058-111395b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Theatre of dreams. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Shirley</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the government completes its <a href="http://totallygaming.com/news/street/uk-government-announces-machine-review">review</a> of the gambling sector in the coming weeks, a clampdown on fixed odds betting terminals (FOBTs) looks to be on the cards. <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/clampdown-looms-crack-cocaine-gambling-9116392">Dubbed</a> the “crack cocaine of gambling” for allowing punters to bet stakes of up to £100 in games like roulette and poker, even former UK culture secretary Tessa Jowell <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4114164/Now-Tessa-Jowell-architect-crack-cocaine-gambling-demands-new-clampdown-addictive-game-machines.html">has joined</a> the chorus demanding curbs – despite overseeing their expansion in the 2000s.</p>
<p>With proposals to reduce maximum stakes to £2 and restrict the number of terminals, the industry is on <a href="http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/fred-done-done-draconian-limit-on-machines-would-be-damaging/2225983/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews">tenterhooks</a>. One of its <a href="http://docplayer.net/9262805-Fixed-odds-betting-terminals-and-the-code-of-practice-a-report-for-the-association-of-british-bookmakers-limited-summary-only.html">defences</a> is that FOBTs have a gross margin of between 2% and 3%, meaning between 97% and 98% of stakes end up being returned to punters in winnings. Which sounds reasonable until you reflect that the high maximum stakes and the speed at which people can bet means they can still run up large debts in a short space of time.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153036/original/image-20170117-23071-u0cqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fixed-odds machines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gamingfloor/8732529863/in/photolist-4eriD-f5A8mP-nx9SKQ-n1nFRD-eiEuTH-DPBjp-DPvSA-DPvSk-DPvSx-DPvS7-DPBju-DPBj7-DPvSM-DPBjf-DPBj1-DPvSH-kCFAbK-mz3rTg-mz3hYn-kr1CJ2-j62NZF-kqZYsV-kqZXcZ-edbyUD-j64eut-cX94dC-cX94bs-RfcANK-zXv7yK-cDoMJy-cSuNeu-q7kS2g-j654E7-cDoMMo-atpst-daTYuS-ciznU1-pr2ADQ-e9i4Dr-daU7UB-daU9FQ-wrFKCo-zEZGdt-QfpwSE-NDigfr-z1tw9d">Ian Sutton</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nonetheless, FOBTs are serving as something of a lightning rod for other types of gambling that are also unfair to punters but poorly understood. I’m referring to bets where people bet not just on the outcome but on other aspects such as the scoreline, who scores first and combinations of outcomes. Supposing it were an Arsenal vs Burnley game, the bookmaker might be offering say 50-1 on Arsenal’s Alexis Sánchez to score first, any Burnley player to score second and Arsenal to win 4-1. </p>
<p>All these betting offers <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-bookies-play-with-your-emotions-to-make-you-place-unlikely-bets-42863">have exploded</a> in recent years. You’ll see them all over the windows of high street bookmakers. It may not be quite as easy as with FOBTs to place lots of bets quickly, but online betting certainly makes it quick and there’s no maximum stake. There’s also no defence of a low gross margin. Do the maths and you find it can be as much as ten times higher. </p>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>Suppose in an upcoming international football match between England and Germany, a bookmaker offered odds of 3-1 on Germany to win. That bookmaker is implying that if the game were played four times, Germany would win once. The probability of Germany winning is 1/(3+1), or 0.25, or 25%. In theory the bookmaker is also implying a 0.75 (or 75%) chance of Germany either drawing or losing, since the probabilities of the various possible outcomes has to add up to 1. </p>
<p>I say “in theory” because the above imagines a situation where a benevolent bookmaker told you what they really thought was probable. In reality, bookmakers build in a profit margin by quoting odds that imply a sum of probabilities greater than 1. In other words, they say every outcome will happen slightly more than is possible – hence offering lower potential wins than they “should”. This <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutchbooktheorem.asp">allows them</a> to make a risk-free profit from their customers’ wagers that is the same no matter which event actually happens. The higher the sum of probabilities, the higher a bookmaker’s profit margin.</p>
<p>For example one bookmaker offered odds on the Germany vs Argentina <a href="http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/archive/brazil2014/">2014 World Cup final</a> that gave Germany a 0.44 probability of winning in 90 minutes, Argentina an 0.29 probability of winning and a 0.31 probability of a draw. These add up to 1.04, implying a gross profit margin of 0.04/(1+0.04) = 3.8% (see <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/dictionary/042215/understand-math-behind-betting-odds-gambling.asp">here</a> for an explanation of how this maths works). </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153035/original/image-20170117-23040-1aaxbdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2014 and a’ that.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/damien_thorne/14190520427/in/photolist-nBY8ki-nWqw2f-nQ2z3L-q9z5XB-ncLK7V-o5fNfu-nWaCEX-mzz7kA-nE3N2P-mzxF5B-o9HzbE-nT7u1k-nEq8MX-jGkcoT-mzxLxa-nWAuA8-ofq6Yw-nA1vNx-nHmZkq-paZSrR-oiH6pP-nZdEV5-qqW1Cw-nWxtGe-nWxtme-nWXXrK-nU9LQV-nU94XJ-o1hbkg-oboGqv-k6uTHr-nVeicS-obCBRg-pH3sc3-o7y1m1-oSEhZR-5Qxwpa-nU9kRA-nUgafS-nQhDjH-nYnCXJ-nYeD5s-q3t2W2-nU9rWc-p112YV-nZYZG2-nZZ2di-o1agh1-o1brYG-oEsqTd">Damien Thorne</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When I <a href="http://journal.sjdm.org/14/141026a/jdm141026a.pdf">studied bookmakers’ odds</a> across that tournament, I found the profit margins on different bets varied remarkably. The size of the profit margin was related to the number of possible outcomes in a given bet. Bets on which a team would win a match had the lowest profit margins – 4.5% on average. (Note this means even these plain vanilla bets have a higher profit margin than FOBTs.)</p>
<p>When it comes to betting on the scoreline of a game, Netherlands to win 2-0, say, there are many more possibilities than for the match outcome. The average gross margin on these bets was 21.9%. As for bets on which player would score the first goal, these have even more permutations – there are 20 outfield players, after all, or no one might score. The average margin on these bets was 32.3%. Meanwhile, aggregated bets that combine different outcomes like first scorer and who wins <a href="http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/case-studies/impact-overround-accumulators-multiple-bets/">can also</a> have much higher profit margins than bets on a single match’s outcome. </p>
<p>No surprise that when I looked at the bookmakers’ advertising, both on TV and in their shop windows, I found it almost entirely dominated by scoreline, first goalscorer and aggregated bets. These trends have continued; in work I will be publishing soon, I find that Premier League TV gambling advertising in January and February of last year was similarly geared toward bets with high bookmaker profit margins. </p>
<h2>When Saturday comes RIP</h2>
<p>There are also endless opportunities to get in on this action. Football betting was a low frequency affair when the majority of matches were on Saturday afternoons. Now high-profile matches take place almost every night of the week. To make it easier still, <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/inplay">“in play” betting</a> lets punters place bets during a match, with the option to “cash out” for a sure money amount before the result. Combine this with the high profit margins and modern football betting has become a high-risk gamble for the average customer. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153048/original/image-20170117-23071-2xd3xf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">OK Coral?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Newall</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is therefore a strong argument that the UK government should do something about these bets as part of its reforms of betting. Gambling losses <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gambling-losses-rise-sharply-to-300-per-person-cnx0phq5n">are running</a> at record highs – £286 per adult per year in the UK and up by a third between 2010 and 2015. Your chance of beating the bookies really depends on whether you can restrict yourself to bets with a low average profit margin.</p>
<p>Capping the maximum margin is one option for the government – though FOBTs are proof you need to do more than that. The govermnment could also aim to educate and disclose, similar to what is done with alcohol. Or it could restrict or ban this type of advertising or even these types of bets altogether. At any rate, it is time for a debate. “The house always wins” is an old saying in gambling. These days, bookmakers are increasingly taking it to extremes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Newall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fixed odds betting terminals attract all the attention, but something alarming is being overlooked.Philip Newall, PhD Graduate, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/546052016-03-05T14:40:16Z2016-03-05T14:40:16ZBehind the unpredictable Premier League year that put Leicester top of the pile<p>Few Premier League seasons have produced as many upsets as the one currently unfolding. In August, Leicester City began the English football season at 5,000/1 to win the top-flight league, Chelsea were favourites for the title, while last year’s promoted trio (Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich) were strongly tipped for relegation. Yet with 10 games to go it is Leicester who are (still) top of the league, Chelsea languish in mid-table, while other high profile “mega clubs” have so far failed to sustain a title-push (see Manchester United and Liverpool). </p>
<p>Alex Ferguson famously tried to explain football’s twists and turns with the elegant phrase: “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfDA4pADaWo">Football!? Bloody hell!</a>”. But dig a little deeper and there are concrete factors that can help us to explain this trend to unpredictability in England’s top-flight division.</p>
<p>The most powerful explanation is linked to contemporary patterns of player recruitment, and what appears to be a more even spread of playing talent across the Premier League. Such a trend was, indeed, mooted earlier this season by then Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho in reference to lowly Bournemouth’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/33796997">capture of Ivory Coast winger Max Gradel</a>. With the money on offer from the current/impending Premier League TV deal (<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31379128">soon to sit at £5.1 billion</a>) all Premier League clubs, it would seem, are now able to exploit a global labour market of playing talent in ways not previously envisaged. A <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/sep/02/financial-fair-play-manchester-city">relaxation of UEFA Financial Fair Play (FFP) restrictions</a> also suggests that future spending across the Premier League will remain lavish. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113697/original/image-20160303-9470-x9plcz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BBC</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>You can see from the chart that by February this year total spending <a href="http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10152807/premier-league-spending-tops-1631billion-after-deadline-day">passed the £1 billion mark</a> for a single season. While high fees may seem typical for the biggest clubs competing at the top, it is worth noting that within this figure Bournemouth and Sunderland sank around £15m (each), while Norwich spent more than £21m in January’s transfer window alone. Stoke City, a team which has never finished higher than 9th in the Premier League, recently outperformed Italian giants Lazio on the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/news-and-comment/deloitte-rich-list-2015-stoke-outperform-lazio-as-tv-riches-and-costly-tickets-put-premier-league-on-9994111.html">Deloitte 2015 rich list</a>. Subsequently, they are now signing players of a higher calibre than before (including <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/mar/02/stoke-city-newcastle-united-premier-league-match-report">Swiss star Xherdan Shaqiri</a>, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/35552774">ex Barca forward Bojan Krkic</a>) while other “mediocre” PL clubs have resisted efforts to prize away their top talent.</p>
<h2>Regulating the game</h2>
<p>The ability of top-flight clubs to spend big on foreign talent, coupled with advances in scouting technology and capacity, has resulted in a league dominated by foreign talent. In recent seasons English players in the EPL have accounted for <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/z9wjq6f">less than a third of the total playing time</a>.</p>
<p>As a counter-weight to encourage the uptake of British players, regulatory changes have included the <a href="http://www.premierleague.com/content/premierleague/en-gb/youth/elite-player-performance-plan.html">Elite Player Performance Plan</a>, passed in October, 2011, which allows top-flight clubs to offer standardised (many would say heavily reduced) compensation fees when recruiting young talent from non-elite academies. </p>
<p>This means that even average Premier League clubs operate with incredible resources and recruitment options, resulting in the relentless expansion of top-flight squads, incorporating layers of reserve and youth team football. For the year ended May 31, 2015, Everton’s playing, training and management staff averaged a total of 98 according to data from Companies House, while an average of 38 employees worked in the club’s Youth Academy alone (this for a team that finished 11th out of 20). The FA’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/mar/03/johnstones-paint-trophy-premier-league-b-teams-england-world-cup-wembley-walsall-bristol-city">controversial decision</a> to allow Premier League B teams to compete in lower league competition, the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy, indicates the authorities are more willing to accommodate mammoth squads of playing talent rather than impose restrictions on squad sizes and the stockpiling of talent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113734/original/image-20160303-9496-1h8t2m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Has Billy Beane changed how British clubs look at scouting?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/JEFF KOWALSKY</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The proliferation of star players, or more importantly potential star players, has resulted in interesting moneyball-type twists on this season’s Premier League narrative. <a href="http://grantland.com/features/the-economics-moneyball/">Developed by Billy Beane</a>, moneyball is the theory that sporting data can be used to source, sign and cleverly combine players currently undervalued in the transfer market, thus allowing clubs with less resources to compete.</p>
<p>With enough due diligence (<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/09/forget-2002-this-years-oakland-as-are-the-real-em-moneyball-em-team/279927/">as with baseball’s Oakland A’s</a>), it is possible for clubs to scout and secure the right combination of undervalued talent at the right time, allowing teams to punch far above their expected weight. First perfected in England by <a href="http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2892/transfer-zone/2014/12/31/7529012/wengers-arsenal-transfer-strategy-is-sound-insists-grimandi">Arsene Wenger at Arsenal</a>, sophisticated scouting of foreign and local talent is now viable for all clubs in the PL division – not least as even those who finish bottom receive £60m in broadcast revenue. </p>
<h2>Holding on</h2>
<p>Moreover, once stars emerge, healthy revenues have allowed most Premier League clubs to hold out for radically inflated prices on their players, thus allowing them to build in ways not previously possible. West Brom’s <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3424663/Saido-Berahino-Tottenham-drag-final-hours-West-Brom-unwilling-sell-striker-25m.html">resistance to sell Saido Berahinho</a> to Spurs, despite a player protest and a bid in excess of £20m, is a case in point. Accordingly, the efficiency of the market is stalling, and the landscape of successful clubs is undergoing something of a change. </p>
<p>In Leicester’s case their success is largely based upon a squad of previously underrated players who have flourished in a single period: Riyad Mahrez (a reported £330,000 <a href="http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Leicester-City-winger-Riyad-Mahrez-ranked-50/story-28475654-detail/story.html">signing from Le Havre</a>), <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/leicester-city/12021886/Leicester-slap-30-million-price-tag-on-Jamie-Vardy-to-ward-off-interest-from-Chelsea-and-Manchester-United.html">Jamie Vardy</a> (£1m from Fleetwood), Danny Drinkwater (undisclosed) and <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3471105/Arsenal-target-Aubameyang-Ighalo-Kante-70m-spree-players-stand-best-chance-signing.html">N’Golo Kante</a> (a still trivial £5.6m) would now command a collective value of somewhere between £50m and £100m. Whether or not Leicester’s title tilt remains a one off remains to be seen, although the potential for such seasons to emerge again should remain intact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Hastings does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Moneyball tactics and a deluge of new money have served up a season of shocks and drama.Thomas Hastings, Research Associate in Work, Employment and Political Economy, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.