tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/birther-movement-22346/articlesBirther movement – The Conversation2022-07-05T12:15:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1846232022-07-05T12:15:55Z2022-07-05T12:15:55ZBuying into conspiracy theories can be exciting – that’s what makes them dangerous<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471454/original/file-20220628-14476-p4rpam.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C22%2C5007%2C3330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A protester holds a Q sign as he waits to enter a campaign rally with then-President Donald Trump in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., in August 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/QAnonEventVegas/a4e2c53c530b45b8b3a6b1bce25ba084/photo?Query=qanon&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=107&currentItemNo=31">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conspiracy theories have been around for centuries, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-witches-are-women-because-witch-hunts-were-all-about-persecuting-the-powerless-125427">witch trials</a> and antisemitic campaigns to <a href="https://archive.org/details/proofsofconspira00r">beliefs that Freemasons were trying to topple European monarchies</a>. In the mid-20th century, historian <a href="http://c250.columbia.edu/c250_celebrates/remarkable_columbians/richard_hofstadter.html">Richard Hofstadter</a> described a “<a href="https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/">paranoid style</a>” that he observed in right-wing U.S. politics and culture: a blend of “heated exaggeration, suspiciousness, and conspiratorial fantasy.”</p>
<p>But the “golden age” of conspiracy theories, it seems, is now. On June 24, 2022, the unknown leader of the QAnon conspiracy theory <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/technology/qanon-leader-returns.html">posted online</a> for the first time in over a year. QAnon’s enthusiasts tend to be ardent supporters of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-a-conspiracy-candidate-65514">Donald Trump</a>, who made conspiracy theories <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98158-1">a signature feature of his political brand</a>, from Pizzagate and QAnon to “Stop the Steal” and <a href="https://theconversation.com/birtherism-trump-and-anti-black-racism-conspiracy-theorists-twist-evidence-to-maintain-status-quo-174444">the racist “birther” movement</a>. Key themes in conspiracy theories – like a sinister network of “pedophiles” and “groomers,” shadowy “bankers” and “globalists” – have <a href="https://theconversation.com/qanon-hasnt-gone-away-its-alive-and-kicking-in-states-across-the-country-154788">moved into the mainstream</a> of right-wing talking points.</p>
<p>Much of the commentary on conspiracy theories presumes that followers simply have bad information, <a href="https://www.wired.com/video/watch/why-you-can-never-argue-with-conspiracy-theorists">or not enough</a>, and that they can be helped along with a better diet of facts.</p>
<p>But anyone who talks to conspiracy theorists knows that they’re never short on details, or at least “<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-no-such-thing-as-alternative-facts-5-ways-to-spot-misinformation-and-stop-sharing-it-online-152894">alternative facts</a>.” They have plenty of information, but they insist that it be interpreted in a particular way – the way that feels most exciting. </p>
<p><a href="https://rels.sas.upenn.edu/people/donovan-schaefer">My research</a> focuses on how emotion <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/religious-affects">drives human experience</a>, including strong beliefs. In <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/wild-experiment">my latest book</a>, I argue that confronting conspiracy theories requires understanding the feelings that make them so appealing – and the way those feelings shape what seems reasonable to devotees. If we want to understand why people believe what they believe, we need to look not just at the content of their thoughts, but how that information feels to them. Just as the “X-Files” predicted, conspiracy theories’ acolytes “want to believe.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blue and green poster shows a UFO above a forest and the words 'I want to believe.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471693/original/file-20220629-17-oifdvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our desire to feel a certain way can drive our beliefs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/i-want-to-believe-with-background-for-world-royalty-free-illustration/983343934?adppopup=true">Olexandr Nitsevych/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
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<h2>Thinking and feeling</h2>
<p>Over 100 years ago, the American psychologist <a href="https://psychology.fas.harvard.edu/people/william-james">William James</a> <a href="https://www.uky.edu/%7Eeushe2/Pajares/JamesSentimentOfRationality">noted</a>: “The transition from a state of perplexity to one of resolve is full of lively pleasure and relief.” In other words, confusion doesn’t feel good, but certainty certainly does.</p>
<p>He was deeply interested in an issue that is urgent today: how information feels, and why thinking about the world in a particular way might be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/bjop.12522">exciting or exhilarating</a> – so much so that it becomes <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211001-i-feel-like-i-ve-lost-him-families-torn-apart-by-conspiracy-theories">difficult to see the world in any other way</a>.</p>
<p>James called this the “<a href="https://www.uky.edu/%7Eeushe2/Pajares/JamesSentimentOfRationality">sentiment of rationality</a>”: the feelings that go along with thinking. People often talk about thinking and feeling as though they’re separate, but James realized that they’re inextricably related.</p>
<p>For instance, he believed that the best science was driven forward by the excitement of discovery – which he said was “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2246769?seq=1">caviar</a>” for scientists – but also anxiety about getting things wrong.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white photograph shows two men posed next to each other in suits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471481/original/file-20220628-25-i03jlv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Psychologist William James, right, next to his brother, the famous novelist Henry James.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/henry-james-novelist-and-his-brother-psychologist-william-news-photo/514865914?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>The allure of the 2%</h2>
<p>So how does conspiracy theory feel? First of all, it lets you feel like you’re smarter than everyone. Political scientist <a href="https://www.maxwell.syr.edu/directory/michael-barkun">Michael Barkun</a> points out that conspiracy theory devotees love what he calls “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520276826/a-culture-of-conspiracy">stigmatized knowledge</a>,” sources that are obscure or even looked down upon.</p>
<p>In fact, the more obscure the source is, the more true believers want to trust it. This is the stock in trade of popular podcast “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/21/1074442185/joe-rogan-doctor-covid-podcast-spotify-misinformation">The Joe Rogan Experience</a>” – “scientists” who present themselves as the lone voice in the wilderness and are somehow seen as more credible because they’ve been repudiated by their colleagues. Ninety-eight percent of scientists may agree on something, but the conspiracy mindset imagines the other 2% are really on to something. This allows conspiracists to see themselves as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3790">critical thinkers</a>” who have separated themselves from the pack, rather than outliers who have fallen for a snake oil pitch.</p>
<p>One of the most exciting parts of a conspiracy theory is that it makes everything make sense. We all know the pleasure of solving a puzzle: the “click” of satisfaction when you complete a Wordle, crossword or sudoku. But of course, the whole point of games is that they simplify things. Detective shows are the same: All the clues are right there on the screen. </p>
<h2>Powerful appeal</h2>
<p>But what if the whole world were like that? In essence, that’s the illusion of conspiracy theory. All the answers are there, and everything fits with everything else. The big players are sinister and devious – but not as smart as you.</p>
<p>QAnon works like <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/qanon-game-plays-believers/2021/05/10/31d8ea46-928b-11eb-a74e-1f4cf89fd948_story.html">a massive live-action video game</a> in which a showrunner teases viewers with tantalizing clues. Followers make every detail into something profoundly significant. </p>
<p>When Donald Trump <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-trump-quotes-fact/factbox-selected-quotes-as-u-s-president-trump-tests-positive-for-covid-19-idUSKBN26N0QJ">announced his COVID-19 diagnosis</a>, for instance, he tweeted, “We will get through this TOGETHER.” QAnon followers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/03/trump-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-qanon">saw this as a signal</a> that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/opinion/qanon-hillary-clinton.html">their long-sought endgame</a> – Hillary Clinton arrested and convicted of unspeakable crimes – was finally in play. They thought the capitalized word “TOGETHER” was code for “TO GET HER,” and that Trump was saying that his diagnosis was a feint in order to beat the “deep state.” For devotees, it was a perfectly crafted puzzle with a neatly thrilling solution.</p>
<p>It’s important to remember that conspiracy theory very often <a href="https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theories-fuel-prejudice-towards-minority-groups-113508">goes hand in hand</a> with racism – <a href="https://forward.com/culture/502541/four-reasons-why-a-racist-and-antisemitic-theory-has-become-so-popular-and-why-we-need-to-stop-it/">anti-Black racism</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/great-replacement-the-conspiracy-theory-stoking-racist-violence">anti-immigrant racism</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-antisemitic-conspiracy-theories-contributed-to-the-recent-hostage-taking-at-the-texas-synagogue-175229">antisemitism</a> and <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/trump-resurrects-conspiracy-theories-about-huma-abedin/story-AQPr91YlOXfeHWsTt4AMLK.html">Islamophobia</a>. People who craft conspiracies – or are willing to exploit them – know how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0048721X.2020.1810817">emotionally powerful</a> these racist beliefs are.</p>
<p>It’s also key to avoid saying that conspiracy theories are “simply” irrational or emotional. What James realized is that all thinking is related to feeling – whether we’re learning about the world in useful ways or whether we’re being led astray by our own biases. As cultural theorist <a href="https://news.uchicago.edu/story/lauren-berlant-preeminent-literary-scholar-and-cultural-theorist-1957-2021">Lauren Berlant</a> <a href="https://thenewinquiry.com/trump-or-political-emotions/">wrote in 2016</a>, “All the messages are emotional,” no matter which political party they come from.</p>
<p>Conspiracy theories encourage their followers to see themselves as the only ones with their eyes open, and everyone else as “sheeple.” But paradoxically, this fantasy leads to self-delusion – and helping followers recognize that can be a first step. Unraveling their beliefs requires the patient work of persuading devotees that the world is just a more boring, more random, less interesting place than one might have hoped.</p>
<p>Part of why conspiracy theories have such a strong hold is that they have flashes of truth: There really are elites who hold themselves above the law; there really is exploitation, violence and inequality. But the best way to unmask abuses of power isn’t to take shortcuts – a critical point in “<a href="https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ConspiracyTheoryHandbook.pdf">Conspiracy Theory Handbook</a>,” a guide to combating them that was written by <a href="https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/conspiracy-theory-handbook/">experts on climate change denial</a>.</p>
<p>To make progress, we have to patiently prove what’s happening – to research, learn and find the most plausible interpretation of the evidence, not the one that’s most fun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donovan Schaefer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Overcoming conspiracy theories isn’t just about information. A scholar of religion explains that the emotions they inspire are part of their appeal.Donovan Schaefer, Assistant Professor of Religious Studies, University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1744442022-01-16T13:39:51Z2022-01-16T13:39:51Z‘Birtherism,’ Trump and anti-Black racism: Conspiracy theorists twist evidence to maintain status quo<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440128/original/file-20220110-21-159btwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C4707%2C3136&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump perpetuated the 'birther' movement for years.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conspiracy theories have mutated into <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-drives-conspiracism-11622759795">conspiracism</a>, a transformation marked by people rejecting proof and evidence in favour of frivolous speculation. That’s what political scientists Russell Muirhead and Nancy Rosenblum suggest in their book <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691188836/a-lot-of-people-are-saying"><em>A Lot of People are Saying</em></a>.</p>
<p>In short, conspiracism is conspiracy without the theory. </p>
<p>Muirhead and Rosenblum use the “birther” conspiracy to illustrate conspiracism. “Birtherism” is the belief that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/birtherism-and-trump/610978/">Barack Obama was not born in the United States</a>, therefore ineligible for the presidency. </p>
<p>It is an example of conspiracism because it <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.644657">causes the relentless denial of simple facts</a>, a characteristic that makes it appealing to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/11/08/far-right-extremism-dominates-gop-it-didnt-start-wont-end-with-trump/">far right figures like Donald Trump</a>. Conspiracism is opposed to logic and reason, and it helped sprout the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/how-conspiracy-theorists-have-tapped-into-race-and-racism-to-further-their-message/">racist attacks against Obama and others</a>.</p>
<p>At the heart of Rosenblum and Muirhead’s crusade against conspiracism is a concern for <a href="https://research-methodology.net/research-philosophy/epistomology/">standard epistemological methods</a> (or logical reasoning), a hallmark of <a href="https://www.psypost.org/2021/07/new-study-indicates-conspiracy-theory-believers-have-less-developed-critical-thinking-ability-61347">classic conspiracy theories</a>. But their concern motivates me to ask if conspiracists actually deny evidence and standard methods of logical reasoning?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-draw-from-apocalyptic-narratives-to-inform-demoncrat-conspiracy-theories-170529">Republicans draw from apocalyptic narratives to inform 'Demoncrat' conspiracy theories</a>
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<p>To suggest that conspiracy theorists deny standard methods of logical reasoning implies that we definitively know what evidence and standard methods of logical reasoning look like. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theorists actually use evidence and standard logical reasoning to put forward their often-racist beliefs. In fact, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137363169_9">they use evidence</a> to connect dots and identify patterns that fall out of the scope of Rosenblum and Muirhead’s analysis. </p>
<p>But evidence is political, and some forms of evidence are seen by some while not seen by others. For example, you might recall Republican Sen. James Inhofe bringing a snowball onto the senate floor <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/02/26/politics/james-inhofe-snowball-climate-change/index.html">as evidence that the globe is not warming</a>. His act demonstrates the way that evidence can be used to put forward a political message before a necessarily factual one. To him, the snowball was evidence.</p>
<h2>Evidence of a conspiracy?</h2>
<p>On May 18, 2012, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/09/donald-trump-hasnt-questioned-barack-obamas-birthplace-since-way-back-in-january/">Donald Trump tweeted</a>, “Let’s take a closer look at that birth certificate. @BarackObama was described in 2003 as being ‘born in Kenya.’” Referring to a <a href="https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/promotional-booklet/">literary promotional booklet</a> that identified Obama as being “born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii,” Trump took this as confirmation of his birtherism, intensifying his animosity for America’s first Black president. </p>
<p>For Rosenblum and Muirhead, Trump’s use of this piece of evidence would not meet their standard for legitimate evidence because it can be easily refuted. However, when Trump and other birther conspiracists cite such examples as evidence of a conspiracy, they are drawing connections between more than events and unexplained phenomena; they are using <a href="https://www.wpsanet.org/papers/docs/Birthers.pdf">Obama’s race as evidence of his being non-American</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sign reads 'Obama, you want our taxes. I want your birth certificate.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440127/original/file-20220110-23-1h9b0dk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440127/original/file-20220110-23-1h9b0dk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440127/original/file-20220110-23-1h9b0dk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440127/original/file-20220110-23-1h9b0dk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440127/original/file-20220110-23-1h9b0dk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440127/original/file-20220110-23-1h9b0dk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440127/original/file-20220110-23-1h9b0dk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Trump’s use of evidence would not meet Rosenblum and Muirhead’s standard for legitimate evidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Trump’s insistence on the point that Obama was born in Kenya <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091231175922/http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html">dovetails with a broader evidential claim</a> that Obama’s Blackness attributes him an African heritage and place of birth — ignoring of course the long lineages of Black folks in places all over the world. </p>
<p>In addition to connecting the dots between Obama’s race and his foreignness, Trump introduced the consequences of his findings on Obama’s policies as well. Tweeting <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/67-times-donald-trump-tweeted-birther-movement/story?id=42145590">on Oct. 31, 2013</a>: “‘If you like your healthcare plan you can keep it.’ = ‘I was born in Hawaii.’” </p>
<p>For Trump, Obama’s skin colour is a dot that is connected to his foreignness that is connected to an African heritage that is connected to his “anti-American” <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2015/07/31/donald-trump-hates-obamacare-so-i-asked-him-how-hed-replace-it/?sh=78d204234e98">health care policies</a>. Trump used evidence and his own standard methods of logical reasoning to come to this conclusion its just not one recognized by Rosenblum and Muirhead as valid.</p>
<h2>What evidence can teach us</h2>
<p>In America, where <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/how-we-rise/2021/05/04/is-the-united-states-a-racist-country/">anti-Black racism functions as the bedrock of many institutions</a>, skin colour can be used as evidence of someone’s opposition to America’s values. </p>
<p>By denying the way that Trump connects the dots between these pieces of evidence, Rosenblum and Muirhead contribute to the hidden structures that guide American political and social life that repeatedly disenfranchise people of colour by <a href="https://theconversation.com/structural-racism-what-it-is-and-how-it-works-158822">denying them decision-making positions across many American institutions</a>.</p>
<p>After all, the birther conspiracists were silent about <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2015/mar/26/ted-cruz-born-canada-eligible-run-president-update/">Ted Cruz not being born in the United States</a> even though he admitted it. Cruz, however, is white-passing. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theories demand that we interrogate how evidence might be used to do more than support a conspiracy; it might work to maintain a certain status quo.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Guignion does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We need to interrogate how evidence might be used to do more than describe a conspiracy; it might work to maintain a certain status quo — in this case, anti-Black racism.David Guignion, PhD Candidate, Media Studies, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1012872018-09-24T10:21:18Z2018-09-24T10:21:18ZSomething’s going on here: Building a comprehensive profile of conspiracy thinkers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237506/original/file-20180921-129844-14x1gmj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A man holding a Q sign, a reference to a conspiracy theory group, waits to enter a campaign rally with President Trump, Aug. 2, 2018, in Wilkes-Barre, Pa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP/Matt Rourke</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Here’s a theory: President Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Here’s another: Climate change is a hoax. Here’s one more: The “deep state” spied on Donald Trump’s campaign, and is now trying to destroy his presidency. </p>
<p>Who believes this stuff? Conspiracy theories have been cooked up for ages, but for the first time in history, we have a president who has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004236529/donald-trumps-conspiracy-theories.html">regularly endorsed them</a>. Assuming that President Donald Trump’s preoccupation is genuine, he shares it with many fellow Americans. What explains it? </p>
<p>I’m <a href="https://muse.union.edu/psychology/joshua-hart/">a psychologist who studies</a>, among other things, people’s worldviews and belief systems. I wanted to figure out why some people gobble up conspiratorial explanations, while others dismiss them as the raving of lunatics.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237507/original/file-20180921-129868-isb6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237507/original/file-20180921-129868-isb6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237507/original/file-20180921-129868-isb6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237507/original/file-20180921-129868-isb6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237507/original/file-20180921-129868-isb6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237507/original/file-20180921-129868-isb6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237507/original/file-20180921-129868-isb6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2012, Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office investigator Mike Zullo announced in Phoenix that President Obama’s birth certificate was a forgery.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP/Matt York</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Consistency in views</h2>
<p>By and large, people gravitate toward conspiracy theories that seem to affirm or validate their political views. Republicans are vastly more likely than Democrats to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-persistent-partisan-divide-over-birther-question-n627446">believe</a> the Obama “birther” theory or that <a href="https://calthomas.com/columns/climate-change-hoax-exposed">climate change is a hoax</a>. Democrats are more likely to believe that Trump’s campaign <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html">“colluded”</a> with the Russians.</p>
<p>But some people are <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915621621">habitual conspiracists</a> who entertain a variety of generic conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>For example, they believe that world politics are controlled by a cabal instead of governments, or that scientists systematically deceive the public. This indicates that personality or other individual differences might be at play.</p>
<p>In fact, some people seem to be downright devoted to conspiracy theories. When conspiracy maven <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/06/this-is-why-alex-jones-has-been-able-to-get-away-with-exploiting-social-media/">Alex Jones’ content</a> was recently banned from several social media websites, the popularity of his Infowars news app <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/07/us/politics/alex-jones-infowars-sandy-hook.html">skyrocketed</a>. </p>
<p>Scientific research examining the nature of the “conspiratorial disposition” is abundant, but scattershot. So in a <a href="https://econtent.hogrefe.com/doi/abs/10.1027/1614-0001/a000268">pair of new studies</a>, and with help from my student Molly Graether, I tried to build on previous research to piece together a more comprehensive profile of the typical conspiracy theory believer, and for that matter, the typical non-believer.</p>
<h2>Common traits</h2>
<p>We asked more than 1,200 American adults to provide extensive information about themselves and whether they agreed with generic conspiratorial statements. We tried to measure as many personal factors as possible that had been previously linked to conspiracy belief. Looking at many traits simultaneously would allow us to determine, all else being equal, which ones were most important.</p>
<p>Consistent with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886915001725">previous research</a>, we found that one major predictor of conspiracy belief was “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4373633/">schizotypy</a>.” That’s a constellation of traits that include a tendency to be relatively untrusting, ideologically eccentric and prone to having unusual perceptual experiences (e.g., sensing stimuli that are not actually present). The trait borrows its name from schizophrenia, but it does not imply a clinical diagnosis. </p>
<p>Schizotypy is the strongest predictor of conspiracy belief. In addition to experiencing the world in unusual ways, we found that people higher in schizotypy have an elevated <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ejsp.2265">need to feel unique</a>, which has previously been linked with conspiracism. Why? Probably because believing in non-mainstream ideas allows people to stand out from their peers, but at the same time take refuge in a community of like-minded believers.</p>
<p>In our studies, conspiracy believers were also disproportionately concerned that the world is a dangerous place. For example, they were more likely to agree that “all the signs” are pointing to imminent chaos.</p>
<p>Finally, conspiracists had distinct cognitive tendencies: They were more likely than nonbelievers to judge nonsensical statements as profound – for example, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/01/the-kinds-of-people-who-confuse-total-nonsense-for-something-really-deep/?utm_term=.ff6b8bf658e9">“wholeness quiets infinite phenomena”</a> – a tendency cheekily known as “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023545">bullshit receptivity</a>.” </p>
<p>They were also more likely to say that nonhuman objects – triangle shapes moving around on a computer screen – were acting intentionally, as though they were capable of having thoughts and goals they were trying to accomplish.</p>
<p>In other words, they inferred meaning and motive where others did not.</p>
<h2>Is Trump a conspiracy thinker?</h2>
<p>Although we can’t know how he would score on our questionnaires, President Trump’s public statements and behavior suggest that he fits the profile fairly well.</p>
<p>First, he does display some schizotypal characteristics. He is famously untrusting of others. Donald Trump Jr. has described how his father used to admonish him <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trumps-donald-jr-problem">in kindergarten</a> not to trust anyone under any circumstances. The elder Trump is also relatively eccentric. He is a unique politician who doesn’t hew consistently to <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/01/14/shattered-norms-trump-changed-presidency-forever">party lines or political norms</a>. He has espoused unusual ideas, including the theory that people have a limited lifetime reservoir of energy that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/05/trumps-unfitness/526677/">physical exercise depletes</a>. </p>
<p>President Trump also seems to see the world as a dangerous place. His campaign speeches warned about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/02/us/politics/transcript-trump-immigration-speech.html">murderous rapist immigrants</a> flooding across the border and black communities being in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/20/african-americans-are-in-the-worst-shape-theyve-ever-been-trump-says-in-north-carolina/">“the worst shape”</a> they’ve ever been. His inauguration address described a hellish landscape of “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/the-inaugural-address/">American carnage</a>.”</p>
<h2>Chaos needs comfort</h2>
<p>The dismal nature of most conspiracy theories presents a puzzle to psychologists who study beliefs, because most belief systems – think religion – are fundamentally optimistic and uplifting. Psychologists have found that people tend to adopt such beliefs in part because they <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0963721417718261">fulfill emotional goals</a>, such as the need to feel good about oneself and the world. Conspiracy theories don’t seem to fit this mold. </p>
<p>Then again, if you are a person who looks at the world and sees chaos and malevolence, perhaps there is comfort in the notion that there is someone to blame. If “there’s something going on,” then there is something that could be done about it. </p>
<p>Perhaps, then, even the darkest and most bizarre conspiracy theories offer a glint of hope for some people. </p>
<p>Take the “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/what-qanon-guide-conspiracy-theory-taking-hold-among-trump-supporters-n897271">QAnon</a>” theory that has recently received a flurry of media attention. This theory features a nightmare of pedophile rings and satanic cults. But some adherents have adopted a version of the theory that President Trump has it all <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/1/17253444/qanon-trump-conspiracy-theory-reddit">under control</a>.</p>
<p>If our research advances the understanding of why some people are more attracted to conspiracy theories than others, it is important to note that it says nothing about whether or not conspiracy theories are true. </p>
<p>After the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1970s/watergate">Watergate scandal</a> brought down a president for participating in a criminal conspiracy, the American public learned that seemingly outlandish speculation about the machinations of powerful actors is sometimes right on the money. </p>
<p>And when a conspiracy is real, people with a conspiracist mindset may be among the first to pick up on it – while others get duped. The rub is that the rest of the time, they might be duping themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Hart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some people are habitual conspiracy thinkers – there’s a plan behind everything, and it’s usually malevolent. One scientist set out to understand who is likely to ascribe to these theories.Joshua Hart, Associate Professor of Psychology, Union CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/655952016-09-27T04:59:44Z2016-09-27T04:59:44ZFour quotes from the first Clinton-Trump debate, explained<p><em>Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump faced off for their first debate at Hofstra University on Sept. 26. We asked a group of scholars to listen to the often heated exchange and react to just one quote related to their area of expertise. Here are those picks.</em></p>
<h2>Emily Blanchard, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>“They’re devaluing their currency… they’re using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China, and many other countries are doing the same thing.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is not surprising that trade, trade agreements and especially trade with China came under heavy fire in tonight’s debate. Trade – together with technology – has undeniably reshaped the American labor market over the past decade, partly <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20131578">at the expense of middle-class workers</a>. </p>
<p>But with this line about Chinese currency policy, Trump struck wide of the mark. First, the devaluation accusation leveled against China is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/11e96e1e-03a7-11e5-b55e-00144feabdc0">out of date.</a> While most economists agree that earlier this century the Chinese central bank artificially depressed the value of its currency (which made Chinese exports more competitive in world markets), the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR">opposite</a> has been true for more than a year, as China has faced <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-myths-of-chinas-currency-manipulation-1452296887">mounting pressure</a> to prop up its currency in the face of outward capital flight. </p>
<p>Second, the idea that China is using its trade surplus with the U.S. “as a piggybank” to rebuild its economy demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed40.html">balance of payments accounting</a>. When a country runs a trade surplus, it is by definition acting as a net lender to the rest of the world. Likewise, when a country runs a trade deficit, it is a net recipient of saving by the rest of the world. By using its trade surpluses to buy U.S. assets (mostly T-bills), China has helped to keep U.S. borrowing costs phenomenally low for more than a decade. If anything, it is China that has been serving as the piggybank to rebuild the U.S. </p>
<p><em>Blanchard’s work centers on the economics and policy implications of globalization.</em></p>
<h2>Valerie Hudson, Texas A&M University</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>“So let’s have paid family leave, earned sick days.” – Clinton</p>
<p>“As far as childcare is concerned and so many other things, I think Hillary and I agree on that.” – Trump</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While it was gratifying to see the first female presidential candidate from a major U.S. political party on stage tonight, what was perhaps even more gratifying was that for the first time, both candidates – one of whom will be our next president – agreed that paid family leave should be the law of the land. We are now one of only <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/ritarubin/2016/04/06/united-states-lags-behind-all-other-developed-countries-when-it-comes-to-paid-maternity-leave/#34b084425ada">two</a> nations in the world that does not provide paid maternity leave (Papua New Guinea is the other), despite the fact that research has shown that such leave <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22813939">decreases</a> levels of postpartum depression and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/birt.12230/abstract">increases</a> levels of breastfeeding. Even with the Family and Medical Leave Act’s provisions, the leave is unpaid, and it is also unavailable to <a href="https://www.dol.gov/whd/fmla/survey/FMLA_Survey_factsheet.pdf">40 percent</a> of American workers. No matter who is elected, we will apparently finally have paid leave, and our children will not have to face the heart-wrenching choices their parents faced. </p>
<p>But there’s more that must be done, as positive a first step as this would be. The larger issue of the invisibility of (largely) women’s unpaid caregiving labor goes beyond paid family leave, and includes issues of <a href="http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20160518/NEWS/160519895">workplace fairness</a> for home health care workers, of the massive shortfall in <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/112892/hell-american-day-care">quality daycare</a> in our nation, and of the persistently high <a href="https://www.caregiver.org/women-and-caregiving-facts-and-figures">poverty rates of caregivers</a> in their old age. Those who represent the social safety net for the vulnerable in our society should not be forced to operate without a net themselves. And when important economic decisions are made for our country, primary caregivers should have a seat at the table to represent this critical element of our economy that would otherwise remain invisible.</p>
<p><em>Hudson is the coauthor of <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7312/huds16492">The Hillary Doctrine: Sex and American Foreign Policy</a>.</em></p>
<h2>Chad Williams, Brandeis University</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>“I say nothing.” – Trump</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump delivered this blunt answer to debate moderator Lester Holt when asked about racial healing and what he might say to Americans who found his continued claims that President Barack Obama was not born in the United States racist. </p>
<p>Trump, instead of offering any semblance of remorse for his actions, took this opportunity to congratulate himself for compelling President Obama to produce his birth certificate and boasted that he was proud of his accomplishment. </p>
<p>Trump has recently gone to great lengths to paint himself as African-Americans’ best friend. <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/trump-black-outreach/501242/">He has done so</a> in part by depicting a hellish picture of black inner-city communities, exploited by Democratic politicians and ravaged by violence, disease and poverty, which only he can remedy by enforcing “law and order.” The false sincerity of Trump’s outreach was fully exposed by his callous disregard of the damage wrought by his birtherism campaign. </p>
<p>Trump launched his presidential aspirations <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/us/politics/donald-trump-obama-birther.html">by declaring</a> the first African-American president of the United States illegitimate. This was not just a personal attack on Barack Obama, but also an attack on the millions of black people who supported him and understood what it meant to have their American citizenship questioned.</p>
<p>Trump promises to be president for all Americans. He brags that African-Americans are flocking to his campaign. Yet <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-african-americans-worst-off-latest-push/story?id=42246717">recent polls</a> still place his support among black voters at between 3 and 6 percent. This is not an accident. When it comes to being a president that will care about the true concerns of African-Americans and address the nation’s deep-seated problems of racial injustice, Trump says nothing and offers nothing. </p>
<p><em>Williams is coeditor of <a href="http://www.ugapress.org/index.php/books/charleston_syllabus/">Charleston Syllabus: Readings on Race, Racism and Racial Violence</a>.</em></p>
<h2>Richard Painter, University of Minnesota</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>“I have no reason to believe that he’s ever going to release his tax returns, because there’s something he’s hiding. …I think the question is, were he ever to get near the White House, what would be those conflicts? Who does he owe money to? Well, he owes you the answers to that, and he should provide them.” – Clinton</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Clinton and Trump went back and forth on his refusal to disclose his tax returns. The exchange seemed to reveal that on the whole he has paid relatively little tax, but that cannot be verified without the returns.</p>
<p>Trump said that the returns were not being released because they were under audit, but Clinton did not follow up with him as to what that has to do with public disclosure and how disclosure could in any way interfere with the audit. </p>
<p>More important, there was not a detailed discussion of what we could learn from the tax returns that we cannot learn from his <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/TrumpFinancialDisclosure20150722.pdf">Form 278 Financial Disclosure</a> that he did file as a candidate. He said that there is relatively little we could learn from the tax returns, but tax returns have very different information than Form 278, so his claim that the two overlap is not true. First, the tax returns disclose what tax provisions he benefits from, which is an important issue. Are they loopholes or intended tax benefits that Congress has put in the code? </p>
<p>He should not be embarrassed about paying less tax if that is the way the tax code is structured, but he should be up front about that and how as president he would either change the tax code so people like him pay more or whether he would keep it the same. </p>
<p>Second, he talks a lot about businesses making money by sending jobs overseas. Tax returns would tell us a lot about how much income he earns overseas (generally income is taxed where it is made). The Form 278, by contrast, does not require significant disclosure of the geographic location of income and assets. Many of the LLCs and corporations on his Form 278 may be organized in the U.S. but have assets and income overseas. His tax returns would provide some information about this. </p>
<p>There is nothing inherently wrong with Trump or anyone else investing overseas and deriving income overseas or even creating jobs there, but he should be open about how his own business practices relate to the issues he is talking about. We need the tax returns in order to do that.</p>
<p><em>Painter served as chief White House ethics lawyer during the George W. Bush administration.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65595/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>My book on campaign finance reform titled Taxation only with Representation: The Conservative Conscience and Campaign Finance Reform (2016) was funded by Harvard University and by Take Back our Republic, a campaign finance reform group. I am a board member of Take Back our Republic.
I am receiving no compensation for these activities.
I have endorsed Hillary Clinton for president but I am not working for or receiving any compensation from any candidate or campaign. I am a member of the Republican Party.
I am representing pro bono several congressional candidates in a FEC and federal court case seeking to strengthen federal regulation of Super PACs.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Valerie Hudson receives funding from the US Department of Defense, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the Compton Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chad Williams and Emily J. Blanchard do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked a group of scholars to listen to Clinton vs. Trump and pick just one quote to react to. Here’s what the experts heard.Chad Williams, Associate Professor of African and Afro-American Studies, Brandeis UniversityEmily J. Blanchard, Associate Professor, Dartmouth CollegeRichard Painter, S. Walter Richey Professor of Corporate Law, University of MinnesotaValerie Hudson, Professor of International Affairs, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/655142016-09-20T01:48:08Z2016-09-20T01:48:08ZThe rise of a conspiracy candidate<p>The political and social climate in the United States has become increasingly fertile ground for conspiracy theories. Leading the charge is Donald Trump, a candidate who has promoted a laundry list of factually questionable theories, ranging from the idea that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/16/here-are-10-more-conspiracy-theories-embraced-by-donald-trump/">Antonin Scalia’s death may have been the result of foul play</a> to his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/15/the-trump-campaign-acknowledges-the-truth-of-obamas-birthplace-layering-it-with-a-number-of-falsehoods/">bizarre relationship with the birther movement</a>, which questions President Obama’s birthplace. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theories are nothing new, of course. From <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-12176503">12th-century anti-Semitic conspiracies</a> to modern <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/02/15/moon-hoax-10/">moon landing hoaxers</a>, the rumor that people are being misled by groups of elites with ulterior motives has been swirling for centuries. </p>
<p>To be fair, people on all sides of the political spectrum can fall prey to these alluring theories. <a href="http://spp.sagepub.com/content/6/5/570">One study</a>, in fact, suggests that the type of thinking that is often associated with political extremism – a desire for simple solutions to complex problems – is also associated with a belief in conspiracy theories. </p>
<p>The problem is that conspiracy theories are dangerous. </p>
<p>Research suggests that exposure to these unorthodox ideas can influence how we see the world. For instance, in one experiment, participants who were shown a video that suggested that climate change is a hoax <a href="http://frank.jou.ufl.edu/frankology/how-climate-conspiracy-theories-hurt-the-environment">later expressed less confidence in the scientific consensus</a> that climate change is real. Conspiracy theories can erode what we think we know about the world by promoting arguments based on poor evidence, evidence that’s been debunked or no evidence whatsoever. They can even be used to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=qMIDrggs8TsC&lpg=PP1&dq=Conspiracy%20Theories%20in%20American%20History%3A%20An%20Encyclopedia&pg=PA63#v=onepage&q=anti-catholicism&f=true">vilify entire groups of people</a> and justify their mistreatment.</p>
<p>Social scientists have long been interested in conspiracy theories. Their research can help explain Trump’s rise – and why he seems so eager to embrace just about every conspiracy theory he’s ever heard. </p>
<h2>Living in a world that can’t be explained</h2>
<p><a href="http://ejc.sagepub.com/content/27/1/22">One school of thought argues</a> that the rise of conspiracy theories is an inevitable result of our increasingly complex and globalized society. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=lIb69vVaQRUC&lpg=PR12&dq=max%20weber&pg=PA196#v=onepage&q&f=false">famous sociologist Max Weber argued</a> that modern society was characterized by rationalization, with systems like the global economy humming along seemingly on their own, driven by the rules of commerce. These systems are complicated and opaque, and even experts struggle to fully explain them. They’re also dehumanized; there is no real answer to the question, “Who’s in charge of the global economy?” The result is a state of anxiety where people feel as though their lives are being pulled along by forces beyond their control – stock markets, globalization and political parties that seem unresponsive to their needs. </p>
<p>One of the core facets of enlightened thought is that science can help us better understand how the world works. But not even science can save us from this anxiety about an increasingly complicated world. Increasingly specialized and technical, primary research is difficult for nonscientists to work through. Although <a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/01/29/public-and-scientists-views-on-science-and-society/">Americans generally hold science in high regard</a>, perceived doubt and disagreement between scientists <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26752513">can encourage people to become uncertain about issues that experts agree on</a>. </p>
<p>Now, in fairness, science is a process of contention and continual revision. But modern media take these lab-room discussions and pump them out more than ever before. Things that are generally “settled” among scientists no longer seem like they are. Think again about <a href="https://www.unc.edu/%7Efbaum/teaching/PLSC_SOC_497_SP_2008/Boykoff_Geoforum.pdf">how climate change is covered in the media</a>, with a climate scientist on one side of the screen and a denier on the other. As these conflicts play out in full public view, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rnq1NpHdmw">the public becomes less certain about the truth</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trust-me-im-a-scientist/">For many people</a>, then, science seems like it can no longer explain what’s going on in the world.</p>
<h2>How conspiracies lead to scapegoating</h2>
<p>Conspiracy theories are our attempt to make sense of these complex world systems. They fill the gaps where personal experience and science have failed us. Capitalizing on feelings of alienation and anxiety, they – and the politicians who promote them – create what historian Richard Hofstadter <a href="http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/">famously called “the paranoid style” of politics</a>. This style of politicking encourages people to believe that corrupt, shady elites and dark forces are conspiring to disenfranchise the masses. </p>
<p>The paranoid style and the proliferation of conspiracy theories are problematic because they make thoughtful deliberation over public issues impossible: Political opponents are not even talking about the same set of facts. But they become decidedly dangerous when combined with a process described by literary critic and philosopher <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Grammar-Motives-Kenneth-Burke/dp/0520015444/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1469551942&sr=8-1&keywords=kenneth+burke+a+grammar+of+motives">Kenneth</a> <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Permanence-Change-Anatomy-Purpose-Third/dp/0520041461/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1469551912&sr=8-4&keywords=kenneth+burke">Burke</a> as scapegoating.</p>
<p>Burke argues that scapegoating begins when people stop identifying with established social structures – like governments or political parties – leading to a sense of disorder within society. This disorder causes people anxiety and the sense they can no longer control their own lives. They feel guilty about their loss of place in the world and search for a way to alleviate that guilt. </p>
<p>The scapegoat provides that relief. </p>
<p>Politicians who scapegoat will <a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195133622.001.0001/acprof-9780195133622-chapter-6">identify political or social groups within society</a> – <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Adam_Pearson2/publication/232424102_On_the_Nature_of_Prejudice_The_Psychological_Foundations_of_Hate/links/00463530ea354c8d21000000.pdf">racial</a> or <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pops.12024/full">religious</a> minorities, for instance – and spin a new story that places the blame for society’s ills on these minorities. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this can have the effect of making those in the majority <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/psp/98/3/434/">feel empowered</a>. </p>
<h2>A conspiracy candidate is born</h2>
<p>Communications scholar Jaclyn Howell <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03637751.2012.723813">argues that the birther movement</a>, <a href="http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-started-birther-movement/">which originated in articles on conservative websites in 2008</a> and was publicly promoted by Donald Trump in 2011, is a prime example of the scapegoating process in action. </p>
<p>Birthers, Howell argues, faced a loss of economic status during the 2008 financial crash, which created a sense of fear and guilt. This discomfort led them “to explain all of the nation’s sins [and thus the social disorder of the times] by making the ‘foreign-born’ president the scapegoat.”</p>
<p>During the current campaign, we see scapegoating playing out again as Trump calls <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/07/08/donald-trumps-false-comments-connecting-mexican-immigrants-and-crime/">immigrants</a> criminals, says <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-keeps-up-attacks-on-judge-gonzalo-curiel-1464911442">first-generation Americans</a> can’t serve as unbiased judges, says <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/15/donald-trump-just-completely-undercut-his-own-muslim-ban-alternative/">“there’s no way to tell”</a> whether Syrian refugees are potential terrorists and says <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/18/politics/donald-trump-black-lives-matter/">Black Lives Matter activists</a> are encouraging violence against law enforcement officers. Fingering these groups not only gives disenfranchised Americans someone to blame, it also empowers them by promising to punish these “others.” </p>
<p>In a sense, then, the success of candidates like Trump is the logical extension of the paranoid style and scapegoating. Scholarship suggests that <a href="http://frank.jou.ufl.edu/frankology/concern-for-your-community-may-feed-conspiracy-theories/">people who feel close to their communities</a> and feel that these communities are threatened are more likely to buy into conspiracy theories. Likewise, <a href="http://spp.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/01/12/1948550614567356.abstract">people with extreme political views are more susceptible</a> to conspiratorial beliefs. </p>
<p>Trump not only <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2015/09/16/donald_trump_suggested_vaccines_cause_autism_during_the_cnn_gop_debate_he.html">embraces</a> <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/05/24/479331275/a-guide-to-the-many-conspiracy-theories-donald-trump-has-embraced">many</a> <a href="http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a46949/trump-cruz-jfk/">conspiracy</a> <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jun/03/hillary-clinton/yes-donald-trump-did-call-climate-change-chinese-h/">theories</a> – from the idea that <a href="http://theweek.com/articles/648232/donald-trump-seized-insane-new-conspiracy-theory">Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen is keeping interest rates low at Obama’s request</a> to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/23/opinion/donald-trump-cues-up-another-conspiracy.html">claims that Hillary Clinton is planning on rigging the election</a> – but he also presents his own radically simplified and anti-factual worldview to his supporters. He clarifies problems and promises to only tell the truth (“I will present the facts plainly and honestly,” <a href="http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/trump-accepts-gop-nomination-i-am-your-voice/">he said in his acceptance speech</a>), while at the same time exposing the liars and thieves and punishing them (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/19/how-the-gop-stumbled-into-calling-for-hillary-clintons-imprisonment/">hence the calls to imprison Hillary Clinton</a>). </p>
<p>Claiming he is an arbiter of truth gives him permission to spread misinformation, whether it’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/26/a-popular-conspiracy-theory-is-gaining-ground-in-the-trump-family-its-totally-false/?tid=pm_business_pop_b">telling Americans</a> that the Obama administration is covering up the “real” unemployment rate or <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/22/donald-trumps-outrageous-claim-that-thousands-of-new-jersey-muslims-celebrated-the-911-attacks/">assuring voters that Muslims cheered on September 11</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that his claims are seldom truthful (PolitiFact ranked <a href="http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/">a whopping 54 percent of his statements</a> as “False” or “Pants on Fire”) is beside the point. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, his campaign surrogates actively encourage people to accept their feelings as facts (Newt Gingrich <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNdkrtfZP8I">famously said in an interview</a> that “The average American does not think crime is down, does not think they are safer,” despite myriad statistics <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/07/22/fact-checking-donald-trumps-acceptance-speech-at-the-2016-rnc/">showing crime rates are down</a>). He continues to hint that something very concerning is going on with <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/28/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-medical-records/">Hillary Clinton’s health</a>. </p>
<p>In an environment where people are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/donald-trump-doesnt-read-much-being-president-probably-wouldnt-change-that/2016/07/17/d2ddf2bc-4932-11e6-90a8-fb84201e0645_story.html">mistrustful of expertise and knowledge</a>, Donald Trump can easily thrive. Many feel insecure due to <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/06/trump-fans-really-want-a-less-diverse-america.html">economic and social changes in society</a>; many are seeking a narrative that makes sense of the world. </p>
<p>And they are particularly fond of narratives that not only validate their sense of powerlessness, but promise to correct it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Griffin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The same forces that drive belief in conspiracy theories are the ones driving the rise of Donald Trump. So it’s no wonder that, less than two months until the election, he continues to dabble in and promote them.Lauren Griffin, Adjunct Associate of Sociology, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/562362016-03-15T10:05:43Z2016-03-15T10:05:43ZOne hundred years of ‘birther’ arguments<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115030/original/image-20160314-11274-h0p04x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A 2010 billboard challenging President Obama</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Billboard_Challenging_the_validity_of_Barack_Obama%27s_Birth_Certificate.JPG">Victor Victoria</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>So-called <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-are-the-birthers/">“birthers”</a> entered the political scene with Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008, questioning Obama’s “natural born status” and, by extension, his eligibility for office. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/04/what-donald-trumps-birther-investigators-will-find-in-hawaii/237198/">Donald Trump </a>was one of the most vociferous supporters of the claim that Obama was not born on U.S. soil. </p>
<p>And now Trump is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/13/tracing-the-evolution-of-donald-trumps-birther-attack-on-ted-cruz/">doing it again,</a> arguing that his main Republican rival, Ted Cruz, is ineligible to run for the White House because – despite having an American mother – he was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/08/19/no-ted-cruz-birthers-are-not-the-same-as-obama-birthers/">born in Canada</a>. </p>
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<p>The word “birther” may be new. But this campaign ploy is not, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/wilsons-long-shadow-over-obamas-white-house-33819">our research</a> for a book on World War I propaganda shows. The strategy was solidified exactly a century ago in the election that pitted Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes against incumbent President Woodrow Wilson.</p>
<h2>A murky definition opens doors to politics</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articleii">Article II of the Constitution</a> states that “no person except a natural-born citizen” is eligible for the presidency. </p>
<p>But it does not explain the meaning of “natural-born.” And since the term has never been tested in the courts, the questions remain unanswered. Does “natural-born citizen” mean a person who is a U.S. citizen at birth and thus, no need for a naturalization process? Or does it mean a person born on U.S. soil? </p>
<p>Children <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/23/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-ted-cruz-birther-movement/">born to U.S. citizens</a> are U.S. citizens themselves, as long as their parents have met certain residency requirements. Persons born in the U.S. are U.S. citizens under the Fourteenth Amendment. </p>
<p>But citizenship may not be the same thing as natural-born citizenship. Tellingly, for example, the First Congress’ 1790 <a href="http://www.indiana.edu/%7Ekdhist/H105-documents-web/week08/naturalization1790.html">Naturalization Act</a> established children of U.S. citizens as “natural-born citizens,” regardless of the place of birth. When the act was repealed, however, the “natural born” language disappeared from <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/2/18/11058038/ted-cruz-court">immigration law</a> and never returned. </p>
<p>The law’s ambiguity over the meaning of “natural-born citizens” lends itself to political attacks that stick. The issue will only, ultimately, be decided in the courts – something that is unlikely in any election cycle. </p>
<p>The first presidential nominee to face such an attack was Charles Evans Hughes. </p>
<h2>1916: the candidates and the issues</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.history.com/topics/charles-evans-hughes">Charles Evans Hughes</a>, a Supreme Court justice, was the front-runner at the onset of the 1916 campaign. </p>
<p>A Wall Street lawyer turned politician, Hughes had championed progressive legislation as governor of New York, helping labor and creating public service commissions that became national models. He continued his progressive stance while on the bench. </p>
<p>Hughes had money (the RNC outspent the Democrats by about 40 percent, according to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_W._Woolley">Democratic politician Robert Woolley</a>’s unpublished autobiography) and history on his side. No Democrat had won a <a href="http://books.simonandschuster.com/1912/James-Chace/9780743273558">consecutive term</a> since Andrew Jackson.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115031/original/image-20160314-11299-1cdigpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115031/original/image-20160314-11299-1cdigpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115031/original/image-20160314-11299-1cdigpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115031/original/image-20160314-11299-1cdigpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115031/original/image-20160314-11299-1cdigpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115031/original/image-20160314-11299-1cdigpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115031/original/image-20160314-11299-1cdigpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Charles E. Hughes campaigning in Winona, Minnesota.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Charles_E_Hughes_campaigning_in_Winona_MN_1916.jpg">No photographer listed</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Also in Hughes’ favor was Wilson’s declining popularity. The president had <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-black-middle-class-was-attacked-by-woodrow-wilsons-administration-52200">alienated blacks</a> with policies that increased segregation among government workers, and his support of Mexico’s anticlerical president <a href="https://archive.org/details/woodrowwilsonand007665mbp">angered American Catholics</a>. </p>
<p>Then there was the war in Europe. </p>
<p>Wilson was stuck between two opposing camps – the progressives who insisted on neutrality and the citizens who argued for military preparedness. A concession to one group was a stab to the other.</p>
<p>What the president did have up his sleeve, however, was the Democratic National Committee’s Publicity Bureau. </p>
<h2>Not above dirty tricks</h2>
<p>The DNC’s Publicity Bureau was disciplined and inventive to a degree never seen before, as our research has shown. </p>
<p>Certainly, it was not above dirty tricks. Among other things, it created a narrative that made the distinguished, principled Hughes seem simultaneously a tool of the “let’s-go-to-war” proponent Theodore Roosevelt and the “stay-out-of war” German-Americans. </p>
<p>There also was considerable freelancing by Wilson stalwarts, one of whom – Breckinridge Long – concocted the attack on Hughes’ eligibility for the presidency. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115033/original/image-20160314-11261-1jnxs18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115033/original/image-20160314-11261-1jnxs18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115033/original/image-20160314-11261-1jnxs18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115033/original/image-20160314-11261-1jnxs18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115033/original/image-20160314-11261-1jnxs18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1074&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115033/original/image-20160314-11261-1jnxs18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1074&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115033/original/image-20160314-11261-1jnxs18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1074&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Breckinridge Long.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BreckinridgeLong22.jpg">Harris and Ewing, Library of Congress</a></span>
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<p>Long was a St. Louis attorney who had married into wealth and politics. He was the head of the Wilson Club in St. Louis and provided badly needed money to the struggling Wilson campaign. He also claimed, in an October speech for the president, that Hughes was not a natural-born citizen. </p>
<p>Long’s argument was that Hughes’ English-born father was not naturalized at the time of Hughes’ birth in New York. </p>
<p>While the Fourteenth Amendment grants citizenship to all persons born on U.S. soil, the ruling did not apply to Hughes, Long claimed, because he was born before the amendment was enacted.</p>
<p>Long made the most of this by painting Hughes as having a “double allegiance.” As the son of a British subject, Hughes had obtained British citizenship at birth and thus could not give his “sole allegiance” to the U.S. </p>
<p>As Long wrote in <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/68922032/Natural-Born-Citizen-Within-Meaning-of-Constitution-by-Breckenridge-Long-Democrat-1916">an article</a> for The Chicago Legal News:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Now if, by any possible construction, a person at the instance of birth…owes allegiance to any sovereign but the United States, he is not a natural–born citizen. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Wilson’s narrow victory</h2>
<p>Hughes barely lost the election. </p>
<p>Had he won either California or Ohio, he would have been president – and he lost California by a mere 3,772 votes. </p>
<p>Long’s tendentious argument against Hughes did not shape the outcome nearly as much as the Roosevelt progressives who lined up for Wilson, or the trail-blazing publicity program of the Democratic National Committee. </p>
<p>But Long’s attack was, we would argue, significant in that it helped establish methods of campaigning that would carry on in the future. </p>
<p>In our own time, birther arguments have been raised against <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ted-cruz-natural-born-citizen-ask-the-founders">Barry Goldwater</a> (born in Arizona before it was a state), <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/how-mitt-romneys-mexican-born-father-was-eligible-to-be-president/">George Romney</a> (born in Mexico to American parents), and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/07/there-was-a-very-real-birther-debate-about-john-mccain/">John McCain</a> (born in the Panama Canal Zone to American parents) as well as Obama and Cruz. </p>
<p>None of those men, except for Obama, won their races for president.</p>
<h2>The aftermath</h2>
<p>Both Hughes and Long went on to prominence, but with quite different records.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115032/original/image-20160314-11288-1s34tjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115032/original/image-20160314-11288-1s34tjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115032/original/image-20160314-11288-1s34tjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115032/original/image-20160314-11288-1s34tjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115032/original/image-20160314-11288-1s34tjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115032/original/image-20160314-11288-1s34tjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115032/original/image-20160314-11288-1s34tjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chief Justice Hughes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Charles_Evans_Hughes_cph.3b15401.jpg">Underwood and Underwood, Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1921 Hughes was named <a href="http://www.afsa.org/taking-stock-secretary-state-charles-evans-hughes">secretary of state</a> in the Harding administration, a job he carried out admirably. A poll of diplomatic historians taken shortly after his death in 1948 named him one of the three best secretaries of state, after John Quincy Adams and William H. Seward.</p>
<p>His record as chief justice of the Supreme Court (1930 to 1941) was, if anything, more distinguished. <a href="http://www.afsa.org/taking-stock-secretary-state-charles-evans-hughes">Many legal scholars</a> regarded him as one of our two best chief justices. In that role he was a champion of free speech, women’s rights, and racial equality.</p>
<p>Long was a study in contrasts.</p>
<p>As a reward for his work in the 1916 campaign, he was given a post in the State Department. As third assistant secretary, Long enthusiastically went about the job of firing department employees after war was declared. “I have caused about 15 officers to go – Consuls, Consular Agents and clerks – because of German nationality or sympathy,” he wrote in <a href="http://findingaids.loc.gov/db/search/xq/searchMferDsc04.xq?_id=loc.mss.eadmss.ms010322&_start=1&_jump=dairy">his diary</a> in March. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>…Our service will be in much better condition if I can carry out my ideas in ‘Americanizing’ it from top to bottom. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Long was back in the State Department during the Franklin Roosevelt administration, and as ambassador to Italy, he became an admirer of Benito Mussolini. Named assistant secretary again in 1939, he had control over visas.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=l2zLpcVA2ZoC&pg=PA170&lpg=PA170&dq=long+enforced+barrier+to+refugees+with+a+zeal+born+from+an+unholy+marriage&source=bl&ots=QDqaD3uU83&sig=bebjDo3-91a1ymUWg1UtI7ALqMw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjw95X3977LAhVE5CYKHRBFBAgQ6AEIHjAA#v=onepage&q=long%20enforced%20barrier%20to%20refugees%20with%20a%20zeal%20born%20from%20an%20unholy%20marriage&f=false">one historian</a> noted of his performance at a time when Jews were seeking to escape Nazi Germany, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Long enforced barriers to refugees with a zeal born from an unholy marriage of anti-Semitism, self-pity, and paranoia.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If there is a lesson for us today, it may be not to study the parsing arguments on natural born citizens so much as to beware of those who make them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56236/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The word may be new, but the first time the ‘birther’ political ploy was used was in the 1916 presidential elections.John Maxwell Hamilton, Senior Scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC and Hopkins P Breazeale Professor, Manship School of Mass Communications , Louisiana State University Meghan Menard McCune, Ph.D. candidate, Manship School of Mass Communication, Louisiana State University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/500582015-11-05T11:09:53Z2015-11-05T11:09:53ZTed Cruz’s birther problem<p>Ted Cruz is on a roll. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/06/30/the-absolutist-2">right wing</a> Texas senator gave a strong <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/02/us/politics/ted-cruz-and-marco-rubio-grow-apart-as-their-ambitions-expand.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0">performance</a> in last week’s GOP presidential debate and he is now rapidly lining up key conservative <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/ted-cruz-iowa-endorsements/index.html">endorsements</a> before the Iowa caucuses. </p>
<p>Even more impressive, the latest polling data and fundraising numbers show significant <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/strong-debate-showing-cruz-hopes-build-momentum-131938696--election.html;_ylt=A0LEV0y7KjZWVv0AN0lXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzaGtrNTIzBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDVklQNjEzXzEEc2VjA3Nj">momentum</a> building behind his campaign. With nearly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/15/ted-cruz-to-report-13-5-million-cash-on-hand-at-or-near-the-top-of-the-gop-field/">US$14 million</a> in his campaign coffers, Cruz has more <a href="http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ted-cruz-campaign-cash/2015/10/15/id/696334/">cash-on-hand</a> than any other presidential candidate. Most important of all, he now stands in third and fourth place, respectively, in the most recent <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/31/post-debate-poll-trump-carson-lead-cruz-third/">CNN</a> and <a href="http://www.wsj.com/article_email/ben-carson-vaults-to-lead-in-latest-journal-nbc-poll-1446507001-lMyQjAxMTE1ODA0MzAwNTM4Wj?alg=y">NBC</a> polls of registered GOP voters. </p>
<p>But as his campaign moves into the top tier of GOP candidates, the senator will inevitably face a politically explosive question: is Cruz constitutionally eligible to serve as president? </p>
<h2>A Native-born Canadian</h2>
<p>The constitutional question stems from the fact that Cruz was born in <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/republican-senator-ted-cruz-to-launch-2016-bid-for-white-house/article23575285/">Canada</a>. To put it mildly, Cruz does not emphasize his <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ted-cruz-canadian-born-us-president-heres/story?id=29846887">Canadian background</a> on the campaign trail. He styles himself as the <a href="http://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=about_senator">quintessential arch-conservative Texan</a>, right down to his <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/03/23/394719332/what-you-need-to-know-about-ted-cruz">cowboy boots</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/25/is-ted-cruz-too-conservative-for-republican-primary-voters/">right wing</a> politics. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ted-cruzs-inconvenient-truth/article13942167/">fact</a> is that Cruz was born in the Canadian city of Calgary, <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121350/ted-cruz-canadian-birth-calgary-lot-red-state-america">Alberta</a> in December 1970. Before Cruz’s birth, his mother, an American citizen, and his father, a Cuban citizen, moved to Canada to work in Alberta’s <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/news/ted-cruz-u-s-republican-senator-releases-alberta-birth-certificate-to-back-eligibility-for-white-house">oil industry</a>. </p>
<p>Cruz’s unique background has naturally raised questions about his eligibility to serve as president. Although he <a href="http://time.com/2854513/ted-cruz-canadian-citizenship/">renounced</a> his Canadian citizenship in 2014, Cruz was a Canadian citizen for most of his life. Canada has <a href="http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/citizenship/rules_2009.asp">birthright citizenship</a> just like the United States, which means that Cruz automatically became a <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/ted-cruz-i-am-not-canadian/article16220647/">Canadian</a> at birth. Moreover, Cruz did not even live in the US until 1974, when his parents moved to <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ted-cruz-plans-renounce-canadian-citizenship-article-1.1561380">Texas</a>.</p>
<p>Does the US Constitution permit a native-born Canadian to serve as president?</p>
<h2>The Constitution’s citizenship requirement</h2>
<p>The answer is yes. </p>
<p>The constitutional analysis turns on the definition of “<a href="http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/">natural born</a>” citizen. Article II, Section 1 of the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articleii#section1">Constitution</a> states: “No Person except a natural born Citizen … shall be eligible to the Office of President.”</p>
<p>Crucially, under US law, Cruz was an American citizen <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/71485/is-ted-cruz-american-enough">at birth</a>. Then and now, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/yes-ted-cruz-was-born-canada-so-what-n329516">federal law</a> provides that a child born abroad to an American parent is a US citizen as long as the parent spent a significant period of time in the US before going abroad. Cruz’s <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/7-things-know-about-sen-ted-cruz-r-tx-f8C11285548">mother</a> spent the first 30 years of her life in the US before her son’s birth. Accordingly, he received <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/24/politics/ted-cruz-eligibility-2016-elections/">automatic American citizenship</a> at birth.</p>
<p>The fact that Cruz became a US citizen at birth is the reason that <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42097.pdf">constitutional scholars</a> believe he is eligible to serve as <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/yes-ted-cruz-was-born-canada-so-what-n329516">president</a>. Although the Constitution does not define the term “natural born citizen,” one year after the Constitution’s adoption Congress passed <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42097.pdf">legislation</a> declaring that children born abroad to American parents were “natural born” citizens of the United States. The First Congress’s use of the term “natural born” citizens indicates that the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42097.pdf">original meaning</a> of the term includes any child who becomes an American <a href="http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/">citizen</a> at birth.</p>
<p>Cruz clearly meets that definition. Even though born in Canada, he was a “natural born” American citizen by virtue of his mother’s American citizenship. </p>
<p>Thus, from a constitutional perspective, Cruz is eligible to serve as president.</p>
<h2>Donald Trump and the birthers</h2>
<p>However, the analysis of constitutional scholars does not necessarily hold much weight with Republican primary voters. Indeed, during the last presidential campaign, many Republicans falsely claimed that Barack Obama was constitutionally ineligible to serve in the Oval Office. </p>
<p>Donald Trump led the way in attacking Obama. Trump boasted of evidence that Obama “<a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/apr/07/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-president-obamas-grandmother-cau/">was born in Kenya</a>” and he <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/151625-donald-trump-demands-obamas-birth-certificate">demanded</a> to see the president’s birth certificate. </p>
<p>Trump’s claims proved utterly baseless. The White House publicly released Obama’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/04/27/president-obamas-long-form-birth-certificate">birth certificate</a>, which proved beyond doubt that the president was born in Honolulu, Hawaii in 1961. Even the conservative magazine National Review <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/265767/pdf-layers-obamas-birth-certificate-nathan-goulding">conceded</a> that Obama’s Hawaii birth certificate was legitimate. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, Trump’s “birther movement” attracted broad support among Republicans. A 2011 poll found that <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2011/02/15/133782676/obama-not-u-s-born-say-51-of-gop-primary-voters-poll">half of all Republicans</a> believed that Obama was born overseas. Even today, polls show that only one-third of Republicans acknowledge the undeniable fact that Obama was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/09/18/gop_birther_polls_donald_trump_doesn_t_denounce_obama_is_muslim_town_hall.html">born in the United States</a>. </p>
<p>The enduring appeal of the “birther” issue among Republicans may pose a problem for Ted Cruz. Although Cruz’s partisan affiliation as a Republican will partially insulate him from right wing attacks, some Republicans will undoubtedly be troubled to learn that Cruz doesn’t have an American <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/ted-cruz-birth-certificate-095668">birth certificate</a>. </p>
<p>Donald Trump certainly seems to think so. Trump has already declared that he believes Cruz’s foreign birth is disqualifying. In March 2015, Trump told Fox News that the Constitution requires the president to be born on <a href="http://www.salon.com/2015/03/23/donald_trump_is_a_ted_cruz_birther_youre_supposed_to_be_born_in_this_country/">American soil</a>, pointedly noting that Cruz “<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-23/donald-trump-goes-birther-on-canadian-born-ted-cruz">was born in Canada</a>.” Trump warned that “when we all studied our history lessons, you’re supposed to be <a href="http://www.salon.com/2015/03/23/donald_trump_is_a_ted_cruz_birther_youre_supposed_to_be_born_in_this_country/">born in this country</a>.” </p>
<p>Although Trump recently <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-flip-flops-canada-born-ted-cruzs/story?id=33637878">conceded</a> that “every attorney” who has looked at the question says Cruz is eligible, the flamboyant billionaire has a history of ignoring mainstream interpretations of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-battle-against-birthright-citizenship-46428">Constitution</a>.</p>
<p>Therefore, as Cruz rises in the polls, it’s a safe bet that Trump will revisit the issue. If Trump’s track record is any guide, the political question of Cruz’s eligibility for the White House is not likely to go away anytime soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<h4 class="border">Disclosure</h4><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony J Gaughan is a registered independent.</span></em></p>Legal scholars agree: Cruz is eligible to run for president. But that fact won’t stop Trump and his other opponents from bringing up his Canadian birth.Anthony J. Gaughan, Associate Professor of Law, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.