tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/denmark-2806/articlesDenmark – The Conversation2024-01-31T13:34:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215482024-01-31T13:34:59Z2024-01-31T13:34:59ZWhat Americans can learn from Danish masculinity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571990/original/file-20240129-17-otfcjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1268%2C594%2C4019%2C2560&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Denmark's King Frederik X wipes away a tear as he waves to a crowd of 300,000 people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DenmarkRoyalAbdication/3a1b8392aaf449a6ae9a6b4a02aa79df/photo?Query=frederik&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=now-30d&totalCount=73&currentItemNo=41">Martin Meissner/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When a leader cries in public, is it a sign of weakness? </p>
<p>On Jan. 14, 2023, Denmark’s Crown Prince Frederik was crowned King Frederik X after his mother, Queen Margrethe II, announced she would be abdicating the throne during her annual New Year’s Eve speech.</p>
<p>After the queen signed a declaration of abdication in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTfNDzO2KvM">private meeting</a>, the king stepped out on the balcony of the Danish parliament – Christiansborg Palace. In front of a throng of <a href="https://via.ritzau.dk/pressemeddelelse/13770145/kong-frederik-samlede-hele-danmark-knap-300000-danskere-deltog-i-fejringen?publisherId=13561616&lang=da">300,000 people</a>, the king waved, teared up and waved again, before <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vLsBQAaGDc">wiping away the tears with his white-gloved hand</a>. He later shed more tears as his wife and children joined him on the balcony.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The proclamation of Denmark’s King Frederik X on Jan. 14, 2024.</span></figcaption>
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<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/world/europe/king-frederik-denmark.html">The New York Times</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/14/denmark-king-frederik-succession-queen-margrethe/">The Washington Post</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2024/jan/14/frederik-x-denmark-proclaimed-king-video">The Guardian</a> eagerly noted the emotional moment. One <a href="https://www.weekendavisen.dk/opinion/kongens-taarer">Danish newspaper</a> headline simply read, “The King’s Tears,” while a Danish <a href="https://www.billedbladet.dk/kongelige/danmark/gribende-billeder-der-siger-det-hele-kong-frederik-maatte-toerre-taarer-bort">celebrity magazine</a> featured a series of images of the king wiping his eyes.</p>
<p>In much of the world, tears and masculinity don’t mix. Crying can signal vulnerability and weakness, particularly for men in charge. Showing your emotions is viewed as too effeminate. </p>
<p>But in Denmark, the king’s tears didn’t minimize his popularity. In fact, they burnished it: Showing a feminine side is a core part of Danish masculinity.</p>
<p>As a native Dane <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Uaz22I8AAAAJ&hl=en">and a psychologist</a>, I’ve studied Denmark’s unique conception of manhood, which contrasts with masculine ideals in the U.S.</p>
<h2>What makes a man?</h2>
<p>Different cultures have different expectations for how men should act, look and express themselves. </p>
<p>American men <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538114056/Hegemonic-Masculinity-Formulation-Reformulation-and-Amplification">are often expected</a> to be tough, strong and stoic. It’s important that they don’t appear too effeminate.</p>
<p>Research shows that in Denmark it can be acceptable – even desirable – for men to show a feminine side. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/men0000062">In a study</a> on masculinity and manhood in the U.S. and Denmark, my colleagues Sarah DiMuccio and Megan Yost and I found that among young heterosexual men, Danish men were more likely than American men to describe ideal men as being caring, loving, considerate and empathetic, which in the U.S. are usually seen as <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/manhood-in-america-9780190612535?cc=us&lang=en&">feminine characteristics</a>.</p>
<p>Many of the young Danish men in our study celebrated these qualities in their male friends, for whom they expressed deep affection. They recounted long phone conversations and hugs. They’d routinely say, “I love you,” or use heart emojis in their text messages.</p>
<p>They didn’t seem too concerned about being seen as too effeminate, because they didn’t see avoiding being girly as part of manhood.</p>
<p>Instead, a number of the Danish participants in our study described manhood in opposition to boyhood. Put simply, you are a man when you are no longer a boy. </p>
<p>This made their manhood seem less precarious: It was seen as purely developmental, rather than something that needed to be constantly reinforced.</p>
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<img alt="Drawing of males at different stages of development." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572003/original/file-20240129-21-xm3liq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572003/original/file-20240129-21-xm3liq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572003/original/file-20240129-21-xm3liq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572003/original/file-20240129-21-xm3liq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572003/original/file-20240129-21-xm3liq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572003/original/file-20240129-21-xm3liq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572003/original/file-20240129-21-xm3liq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Danes tend to see manhood simply as a developmental stage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/mans-aging-process-scribbles-royalty-free-illustration/908532074?phrase=evolution+of+boy+to+man+drawing&adppopup=true">A-Digit/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In contrast, the American men viewed manhood in contrast to womanhood: You’re a man when you’re not a woman. For example, we asked one participant how his brothers responded if he did something they deemed unmanly. </p>
<p>“By beating (me up) a little bit and calling me a girl,” he replied.</p>
<p>The positioning of manhood against womanhood makes it more precarious: It must continuously be reinforced. To the American men in our study, suppressing any feminine qualities, including showing emotion, was one way for them to make sure others saw them as “man enough.” </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08038740.2015.1046918">In another study</a> examining masculinity among Danish men, the men said that ideal men should have an emotional side; to them, it was a sign of balance and authenticity. </p>
<p>When the men were asked about a public figure or male celebrity who showed the most acceptable masculinity, many of them even mentioned then-Crown Prince Frederik. They saw him as having a good mix of traditionally masculine qualities – he’d served in the military and is athletic – and softer, more feminine qualities: He is considerate of others, talks about his feelings and is engaged with raising his children. He even picks up his children from day care <a href="https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/far-frederik-saetter-graenser">on his cargo bike</a>. </p>
<p>The men in the study added that any good father should be more than a provider. He ought to be present, caring and engaged with his children. </p>
<h2>Gender in the land of equality</h2>
<p>Why are there such profound differences in conceptions of masculinity between these two Western nations?</p>
<p>It could have something to do with the fact that Denmark has some of the highest ratings of gender equality in the world. For example, in 2021, the U.N. ranked the U.S. 44th <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/thematic-composite-indices/gender-inequality-index#/indicies/GII">in gender equality</a> after assessing health outcomes, political representation and workforce participation among men and women. Denmark, on the other hand, was ranked as the most gender equal country in the world.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.globalledelse.dk/eng/img/pdf/Danish%20Leadership%20Style%20in%20a%20Global%20Perspective_210x280_WEB.pdf">In the Danish workplace</a>, employees and employers are on more equal footing. Managers tend to wield a participatory and democratic leadership style that is informal, open and trusting. There’s an emphasis on a good life-work balance. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.109.3.573">This leadership style</a> upends traditional notions of masculinity because it focuses on communal values: empathy, collaboration and relationship-building. It contrasts with traditionally masculine leadership, which in psychology is called “<a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1999-04018-011">agentic leadership</a>,” and which centers on dominance, power and achievement. </p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/cultures-consequences/book9710">tends to champion more masculine values and attitudes</a> in the workplace. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000175">In one experimental study</a>, American men who cried in response to a negative performance evaluation were judged more harshly than women who cried in the same circumstances, because it violated expectations of appropriate masculine behavior. </p>
<p>Royalty in an egalitarian country such as Denmark might seem odd to some people. But King Frederik X, whose role is more cultural and ceremonial, is simply embodying Danish sensibilities. </p>
<p>At his party, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIsnIt1p978">he can cry if he wants to</a> – <a href="https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/ny-maaling-viser-hoej-opbakning-til-kronprinsparret">and he’ll be all the more beloved for it</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marie Helweg-Larsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>American men see manhood in opposition to womanhood. Danes, on the other hand, see manhood as not acting immaturely, as a boy would.Marie Helweg-Larsen, Professor of Psychology, Dickinson CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206632024-01-10T19:14:53Z2024-01-10T19:14:53ZQueen Margrethe II is the first Danish monarch to abdicate in 900 years – but it is just a sign of the times<p>Queen Margrethe II of Denmark’s <a href="https://www.kongehuset.dk/en/news/read-hm-the-queens-new-year-address-2023">announcement</a> of her abdication in her New Year’s Eve address, citing her age and health, was a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/01/all-of-denmark-is-crying-danes-react-to-margrethe-iis-abdication">significant shock</a> to the Danes.</p>
<p>Margrethe became Queen of Denmark following the death of her father, King Frederik IX, in 1972. When Queen Elizabeth II died in 2022, Margrethe became Europe’s longest-reigning monarch and is the world’s longest-serving current female head of state. She is also the world’s sole queen regnant – that is, a queen who reigns in her own right independent of her spouse’s rank and titles. </p>
<p>Her decision to abdicate marks a significant departure from what she had repeatedly said before: her intention was to remain on the throne for life, as did her predecessors. Queen Margrethe II will break the <a href="https://www.kongehuset.dk/en/news/abdication">nearly 900-year-old tradition</a> of lifelong reign in Denmark. </p>
<p>The abdication ceremony is scheduled for Sunday January 14, coinciding with the 52nd anniversary of Margrethe’s <a href="https://www.kongehuset.dk/en/news/programme-for-the-succession-of-the-throne">accession to the throne</a>. This historic moment will also see Crown Princess Mary becoming the first Australian-born queen consort as wife of the new king, Frederik X. </p>
<p>But while this announcement may have come as a shock, royal abdications – once rare and often scandalous events – have become more frequent over the past century. </p>
<h2>When it isn’t ‘duty first’</h2>
<p>Abdications, whether influenced by personal, political or health-related factors, significantly impact royal families, state institutions and national identities. Each instance of abdication holds the potential to shift public perceptions regarding the monarchy’s value as an institution and ignite debates about the monarchy’s relevance. </p>
<p>In 2014, Juan Carlos I of Spain – once praised as a restorer of democracy – <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-24/spains-disgraced-king-juan-carlos-could-return/102629278">abdicated amid scandal</a> and self-exiled to Saudi Arabia. After his abdication, thousands of people across Spain <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/02/king-juan-carlos-spain-protests-referendum-monarchy">marched</a> calling for a referendum into the future of the monarchy and Spain’s return to a republican system.</p>
<p>The most notable abdication of the 20th century was of King Edward VIII of Britain in 1936. King for less than a year, Edward’s intention to marry Wallis Simpson – an American socialite in the process of her second divorce – created a constitutional crisis because the democratically elected government of the United Kingdom did not support his decision to both <a href="https://www.vogue.com/article/what-happened-when-king-edward-viii-quit-the-royal-family">marry and remain king</a>.</p>
<p>Edward VIII was further constrained by his role as the head of the Church of England, which then prohibited remarriage if a former spouse was still alive. He was the first British head of state to abdicate since James II/VII in 1688 was <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2638744">declared to have abandoned the throne</a>, and Edward’s abdication in pursuit of personal happiness was a watershed moment in royal British history. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-monarch-who-is-a-divorcee-would-once-have-scandalised-but-charles-accession-shows-how-much-has-changed-204544">A new monarch who is a divorcee would once have scandalised. But Charles' accession shows how much has changed</a>
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<p>This event’s lasting impact was epitomised by his niece, Queen Elizabeth II, who throughout her reign <a href="https://widerimage.reuters.com/story/queen-elizabeth-a-job-for-life">embodied the ethos</a> of placing “duty first, self second”.</p>
<p>Across the Channel, in Europe’s constitutional monarchies, the position of a monarch is not seen as <a href="https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2022/09/queen-elizabeth-servant-of-god">sanctioned by divine command</a> but as established by secular law and abdications are not seen as a dereliction of duty. </p>
<p>In the last 25 years, monarchs of Belgium (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-23167525">King Albert II</a>), Luxembourg (<a href="https://monarchie.lu/en/monarchy/former-sovereigns/hrh-grand-duke-jean">Grand Duke Jean</a>) and the Netherlands (<a href="https://www.royal-house.nl/members-royal-house/princess-beatrix/abdication">Queen Beatrix</a>) voluntarily handed down the office to their successors. </p>
<p>Their renunciation of the office was a novelty after most of their predecessors stayed in the role for life, but was seen as functional and symptomatic of the constitutional nature of their office.</p>
<h2>Global abdications</h2>
<p>The 2013 abdication of Pope Benedict XVI, the leader of the Roman Catholic Church and the head of state of the Vatican City, was as unexpected as it was unprecedented. Benedict XVI was the first pope to step down since <a href="https://www.newadvent.org/cathen/07001a.htm">Gregory XII</a>, who was forced to resign in 1415, and the first pope to do so voluntarily since <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Saint-Celestine-V">Celestine V in 1294</a>.</p>
<p>The pontiff offered a <a href="https://insidethevatican.com/magazine/pope-benedicts-resignation-speech/">frank justification</a> for his decision: someone of his age was no longer suited to the papacy in the modern world. His abdication paved the way for election of his successor and established a precedent for the retirement of popes with the retiring pontiff to be called “pope emeritus”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/popes-resignation-is-a-recognition-of-human-frailty-in-an-ageing-world-12148">Pope's resignation is a recognition of human frailty in an ageing world</a>
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<p>Outside Europe, Emperor Akihito of Japan abdicated <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48020703">in 2019</a>, the first emperor to abdicate in 200 years. He explained his actions in similar terms to Benedict XVI and Margarethe II, citing his health and that it was time for a younger monarch to exercise a complex constitutional role.</p>
<p>This century has also seen similar steps taken by rulers of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2005/12/19/abdication-shocks-bhutanese">Bhutan</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2013/06/25/195464213/in-qatar-a-rare-royal-abdication">Qatar</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2006/1/23/ailing-kuwaiti-amir-to-abdicate">Kuwait</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/malaysia-s-king-muhammad-v-announces-shock-abdication-20190107-p50pwv.html">Malaysia</a>.</p>
<p>Queen Margrethe II’s abdication is a sign of times. Monarchs, after years of service, can exercise the right to retire, paralleling the rights of the citizens of their realms. </p>
<p>This shift, while upending centuries-old traditions, suggests a more relatable and empathetic view of monarchy, aligning it closer with contemporary values of personal agency.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/japan-a-new-emperor-and-a-new-era-but-women-are-still-excluded-from-the-chrysanthemum-throne-116380">Japan: a new emperor and a new era – but women are still excluded from the Chrysanthemum Throne</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darius von Guttner Sporzynski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queen Margrethe II’s abdication ceremony is scheduled for this Sunday, the 52nd anniversary of her accession to the throne.Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199122023-12-18T19:10:06Z2023-12-18T19:10:06ZFrom laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now<p>For years <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2021/11/12/fossil-fuelled-five-report/">large fossil fuel producers</a> — <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-know-if-a-country-is-serious-about-net-zero-look-at-its-plans-for-extracting-fossil-fuels-170508">including Australia</a> — have <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">expanded</a> fossil fuel production while maintaining rhetorically that the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But global emissions are overwhelmingly caused by the extraction, transport and burning of fossil fuels. Unless fossil fuels are phased out, emissions will grow and the climate crisis will worsen.</p>
<p>At COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, which wrapped up last week, this fact finally became the centre of attention. And fossil fuel producers were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/opec-chief-urges-members-reject-any-cop28-deal-that-targets-fossil-fuels-2023-12-08/">feeling the pressure</a> — forced to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/opec-members-push-against-including-fossil-fuels-phase-out-cop28-deal-2023-12-09/">defend their expansion of fossil fuels</a> or change their tune.</p>
<p>Interestingly, Australia seems to be doing the latter, at least rhetorically. While successive governments have <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">worked assiduously</a> to keep fossil fuel production out of the spotlight at the UN talks, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">said</a> Australia supports the global phasing out of fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050. Clearly eager to avoid being seen as the villain at the talks, Bowen named Saudi Arabia as the main blocker to an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.</p>
<p>But the text of COP decisions matters much less than the actions states and companies take. Australia — one of the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P667-High-Carbon-from-a-Land-Down-Under-WEB_0_0.pdf">world’s largest producers and exporters</a> of fossil fuel-based carbon dioxide — is fuelling the problem, not solving it. Currently, Australian companies are moving to expand fossil fuel production: <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022">more than 100 major coal, oil and gas projects</a> are in planning, at a cost of around A$200 billion. Some of these are “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas">carbon bombs</a>,” likely to add huge quantities of emissions.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Why Australia faces charges of hypocrisy</h2>
<p>The Albanese government has already <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/ten-and-rising-albanese-government-new-fossil-fuel-approvals-unveiled/">approved</a> a number of new fossil fuel projects, <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/how-labor-out-loved-the-coalition-in-its-embrace-of-big-oil-and-gas/">embracing</a> the fossil fuel expansionism of its conservative predecessors. But now that Australia has declared support for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, it must curtail its own exports or face continued <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/19/missing-half-the-equation-scientists-criticise-australia-over-approach-to-fossil-fuels">charges of hypocrisy</a>.</p>
<p>How could Australia do that while managing the fallout? Interestingly, Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">rhetoric at COP</a> contained the seeds of an answer: a “phase out of fossil fuels is Australia’s economic opportunity as [a] renewable energy superpower”. In line with this sentiment, Australia should adopt the mission of leading the Asia-Pacific region to a prosperous future by simultaneously phasing out its fossil fuel exports while phasing up its clean energy exports; by becoming a <a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/renewable-energy-superpower">clean energy superpower</a> instead of a dirty energy one.</p>
<p>Doing so would require a dramatic shift in Australia’s international climate posture: from a defensive, parochial, technocratic stance aimed at protecting fossil fuel expansion to proactive, outward-looking and pragmatic leadership; from merely focusing on its own territorial emissions to using all powers at its disposal in its <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/climate-policy-and-our-sphere-of-influence/">sphere of influence</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">Hard-fought COP28 agreement suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered – but climate catastrophe is not yet averted</a>
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<h2>First a new project ban, then a net zero plan</h2>
<p>Our coal and gas exports are entirely within our sovereign control, and give us enormous leverage over our regional trading partners. No one is suggesting stopping fossil fuel exports overnight. But we could start by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/21/the-latest-ipcc-report-makes-it-clear-no-new-fossil-fuel-projects-can-be-opened-that-includes-us-australia">banning new projects</a>, and then convening our regional partners to work out a plan to phase out existing production and consumption. Australian leadership would involve supporting our neighbours —through investment, trade and aid —to ensure their populations can access energy from zero-carbon sources, just as we’re aspiring to do at home.</p>
<p>Phasing out fossil fuel exports is thus best conceptualised as part of a shift in our foreign and trade policy aimed at securing our and our region’s prosperity against the existential threat of climate change — and amid a global pivot to clean energy. Call it “<a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/laggard-to-leader#:%7E:text=Laggard%20to%20Leader%20is%20a,and%20accelerated%20through%20international%20cooperation.">cooperative decarbonisation</a>”. Viewed in this light, the typical objections to a fossil fuel phase-out in Australia look pathetic.</p>
<h2>The weak objections to a phase-out</h2>
<p>The first objection claims we are not responsible for the overseas emissions produced from burning our exported coal and gas. This falsely conflates Australia’s national interest in reducing emissions globally with its international legal responsibility for <a href="https://legalresponse.org/legaladvice/reporting-requirements-under-article-13-paris-agreement/">reporting emissions</a> locally.</p>
<p>Nothing in the Paris Agreement prevents a country from taking actions that would reduce or avoid emissions in another country. It is reckless and self-defeating to concern ourselves only with emissions produced on our territory when our power to influence global emissions is so much greater. Let’s hope that Bowen’s rhetorical shift at COP28 signals acceptance of this fact.</p>
<p>The second objection is that leaving our fossil fuels in the ground will not affect global emissions, because if we don’t sell our coal and gas, someone else will. Aside from its immorality (the “drug dealer’s defence”), the objection defies Economics 101: if you reduce supply of a product, its price goes up, causing demand to contract. Other countries might supply <em>some</em> of the shortfall, but Australia is such a big producer that it is implausible to think we could exit the coal and gas markets without dramatically reducing global emissions.</p>
<p>Moreover, it’s shortsighted to think of fossil fuel export policy in isolation from the wider foreign policy choices we face. Australia’s current foreign policy is to <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">promote our coal and gas exports</a>: we literally pay public servants to help multinational companies sell more coal and gas. But if we gave our diplomats the nobler mission of leading our region’s decarbonisation, our leadership would help to make trade in fossil fuels redundant.</p>
<p>The last oft-heard objection is that phasing out fossil fuel production would cost too much. The foreign-owned corporations that produce most of our coal and gas <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-wins-plaudits-for-move-on-multinational-tax-dodgers-but-much-more-is-needed-on-fossil-front/">pay little tax</a> and <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">employ relatively few people</a>, while capturing <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/P1378-Fossil-fuel-subsidies-2023-Web.pdf">billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies</a>. Scaling up as a clean energy superpower could bring more economic growth, jobs and tax revenue than would be lost from fossil fuels — especially if we <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/a-real-plan-to-tackle-energy-prices-climate-and-the-budget/">taxed the fossil fuel industry properly</a> on its way out.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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<h2>Phase-outs can be done: lessons from overseas</h2>
<p>Denmark, France, Ireland and Costa Rica are <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.org/">among a number</a> of countries that have foregone new fossil fuel exploration and production opportunities; others are <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/just-transition-examples">working to phase out existing</a> operations. Doing so is undoubtedly challenging: firms, workers and the communities in which fossil fuel operations are located understandably tend to resist policies that would close their industry.</p>
<p>But government support can smooth the transition. The Spanish government, for instance, negotiated a “just transition agreement” with unions and businesses to phase out coal mining, support affected workers and invest in their communities. My coauthors and I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/how-to-get-coal-country-to-vote-for-climate-policy-the-effect-of-a-just-transition-agreement-on-spanish-election-results/25FE7B96445E74387D598087649FDCC3">found</a> this strategy actually increased the government’s vote share at a subsequent election in the coal regions.</p>
<p>A phase-out of fossil fuel production is <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">entirely feasible</a> for a country with our resources, skills and diverse economy. The standard objections provide fossil fuel companies, and the politicians they’ve captured, with convenient excuses for cashing in while the planet — and Australia — burns. It’s time, instead, for bold actions that lead us and our region to a prosperous, fossil-free future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fergus Green is affiliated with the Powering Past Coal Alliance - is a coalition of national and subnational governments, businesses and organisations working to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. He is a member of the Alliance's Just Transition Expert Group.</span></em></p>Australia supported a phase-out of fossil fuels at the recent UN climate summit but is still expanding coal and gas production. It’s a contradiction that threatens the planet. There is a better way.Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189672023-12-04T15:39:27Z2023-12-04T15:39:27ZChildhood pneumonia is surging in many countries – while the germs causing it are known, the effects of co-infections aren’t<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563296/original/file-20231204-23-ogevti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5331%2C3554&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cough-elbow-prevention-barrier-gestures-curb-1693522387">castiglioni veronica/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may have heard reports about outbreaks of pneumonia affecting children in <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/health/childhood-pneumonia-surge-reported-netherlands-outbreak-china">the Netherlands</a>, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12808991/Denmark-battles-surge-pneumonia-sparking-fears-China.html">Denmark</a> and parts of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/white-lung-pneumonia-outbreak-ohio-b2457652.html">the US</a> and <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/china-suffers-walking-pneumonia-outbreak-as-many-other-countries-see-spike-in-infections-13020285">China</a>, which are higher than usual for this time of year. Parents are keeping a watchful eye on the news, while public health officials monitor the global incidence of severe respiratory infections and record cases and causes. However, there is no new virus or other type of new pathogen to worry about in these outbreaks. </p>
<p>Here’s what we know.</p>
<p>Pneumonia is inflammation of the lungs, usually caused by bacterial or viral infections. It may affect deeper lung tissues than bronchitis, which is airway tube inflammation, and can have symptoms such as fever, breathing problems and chest pain, showing up as a white shade in lung chest X-rays. There is no special designation of “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/white-lung-pneumonia-outbreak-ohio-b2457652.html">white lung pneumonia</a>”, <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/health/what-white-lung-syndrome-mystery-31571473">scary as it may sound</a>. </p>
<p>This season, known respiratory germs, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and <em>Mycoplasma pneumoniae</em> bacteria, have been recorded and are quite expected for this time of year. Mycoplasma outbreaks flare up <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/atypical/mycoplasma/surv-reporting.html">every few years</a> and can be <a href="https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/605">resistant</a> to common antibiotics. </p>
<p>Most infected children and adults will develop flu-like symptoms that will clear up on their own after a few days, but some may develop into more serious inflammation of the lungs requiring treatment and, in some cases, hospitalisation. </p>
<p>But why do some people get more severe diseases? And are there any differences this season?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chest X-ray showing a white shadow on the lung" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563341/original/file-20231204-15-59vaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563341/original/file-20231204-15-59vaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563341/original/file-20231204-15-59vaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563341/original/file-20231204-15-59vaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563341/original/file-20231204-15-59vaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563341/original/file-20231204-15-59vaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563341/original/file-20231204-15-59vaa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pneumonia can show up as a white shadow on a chest X-ray.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/chest-xray-film-patient-left-lung-1819284152">Tomatheart/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Healthy children make the most of passing harmless respiratory viruses to each other at an early age, helping to educate their immune systems and build immunity to similar germs in the future. </p>
<p>Over 200 viruses can cause respiratory infection, including RSV, adenoviruses, enteroviruses, rhinoviruses and coronaviruses. Symptoms can be more serious in the young when similar infections have not been previously encountered. It takes about <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_immune_system">a week</a> for specific immunity to develop its arsenal to a new pathogen. </p>
<p>After the infection is cleared, memory cells remain to protect against future infections. We appreciate that antibodies to common cold viruses such as coronaviruses <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8319587/">wane</a> after around two years and RSV-specific antibodies in infants may wane <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/226/12/2064/6582314">even faster</a>. However, memory cells persist, so to escape immunity, viruses mutate to avoid recognition. </p>
<p>There are no differences in expected viral infections this year, and the known culprits were reported in expected waves based on pre-pandemic levels, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/pneumonia-outbreak-china-cases-map-b2456410.html">according to the World Health Organization</a>. <em>Mycoplasma pneumoniae</em> flares are also as expected. However, waning mycoplasma-specific herd immunity has been <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(23)00182-9/fulltext">flagged up</a> with a warning to watch out for the resurgence of severe cases following the pandemic restrictions.</p>
<h2>Unknown effects of co-infection</h2>
<p>COVID restrictions are a thing of the past and people that mix in schools, nursing homes and other high-risk environments are likely to come across several infectious diseases at the same time.</p>
<p>Studies in children with acute severe hepatitis <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05948-2">in the UK</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05949-1">the US</a> showed that multiple viral infections were causing unexpected liver damage. Multiple infections can lead to more severe disease, where even viruses that can be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00570-8">considered harmless</a> can add to tissue injury. </p>
<p>In science labs, it has been shown that being infected with more than one respiratory virus (known as “co-infection”) can lead to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01242-5">hybrid viruses</a>. These hybrid viruses may behave differently from the individual viruses – causing different symptoms and perhaps even evading the immune system.</p>
<p>So what do we need to know to determine if a new dangerous outbreak occurs? The incidence of known infections and symptoms are recorded and reported so that any new, potentially more dangerous variants can be detected. Hospitals can become overwhelmed during <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/index.html">flu season</a>, but flu does not circulate in isolation and symptoms can worsen when people are simultaneously infected with more than one respiratory virus.</p>
<p>Respiratory infections can cause lung injury, which takes time to heal. Having one respiratory infection followed by another can prolong this healing time, leading to more severe symptoms and longer illness. This is particularly felt by <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/asthma/respinf.html">asthma sufferers</a>, who are advised to take their annual flu jab and avoid catching seasonal infections. </p>
<p>Pneumonia-causing infections are contagious. The COVID pandemic has highlighted tips to avoid catching a respiratory infection, which include avoiding contact with infected people, effective ventilation, masking and hand hygiene. Given what we now know about the impact of “harmless” infections, particularly simultaneous infections with more than one pathogen, it is critical to take action to stop the spread.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zania Stamataki does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hybrid viruses can emerge from co-infections. And we don’t know their effects.Zania Stamataki, Associate Professor in Viral Immunology, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187062023-11-29T19:17:52Z2023-11-29T19:17:52ZWhat is a ‘just’ transition to net zero - and why is Australia struggling to get there?<p>Australia’s net-zero transition is struggling. Despite the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">efforts</a>, announced last week, to revive flagging investment in renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions from existing industry are still <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/time-is-running-out-to-reach-our-emissions-target-and-our-path-needs-changing/">rising</a>. Yet under the Paris Agreement, Australia must adopt <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">even more ambitious targets</a> for 2035.</p>
<p>At the same time, governments in Australia and overseas are facing <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">rising community opposition</a> to the rollout of clean energy infrastructure needed for a net zero transition. Such opposition is being <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-lambrou-alternative-for-germany-heat-pump-election-climate-change/">exploited by right-wing parties</a> for electoral gain.</p>
<p>But that pressure only underscores what the Australian government must do. To lift its climate game, it needs a mission-oriented, whole-of-government approach, built on what is known as a “<a href="https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/what-just-transition-and-why-it-important">just transition</a>”.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The two main elements of a just transition</h2>
<p>A just transition requires both <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">distributive justice</a> and procedural justice. Distributive justice means policies that ensure a fair distribution of the economic burdens and benefits of the climate transition, along with protections for low-income people.</p>
<p>Procedural justice includes – but goes beyond – engaging with workers directly impacted by the decline of fossil fuel production. It means going beyond engagement with stakeholders that mainly represent incumbent industries.</p>
<p>A just transition would give all of Australia’s communities a chance to not only take part in discussions about the costs and benefits of different approaches to net zero, but also to have a say in designing climate policies that directly affect them.</p>
<p>The success of the net zero transition may depend on the government’s willingness to use the expertise of local communities in finding solutions for the lands and waters they know best.</p>
<p>The Labor government <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/net-zero-authority-gives-more-australians-a-chance-to-prosper-from-renewables">signed</a> the <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230313132211/https://ukcop26.org/supporting-the-conditions-for-a-just-transition-internationally/">Just Transition Declaration</a> at last year’s <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop27">COP27 global climate summit</a> at Sharm el-Sheikh. The declaration spells out this idea in its second principle:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the development of effective, nationally coherent, locally driven and delivered just transition plans within countries is dependent on effective and inclusive social dialogue.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Yet the Albanese government’s net-zero strategy has no explicit commitment to a just transition. Instead, its piecemeal strategy lacks integration and avoids tackling the essential phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>Many government bodies – but is there a plan?</h2>
<p>In May the government announced it would establish a statutory <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/new-national-net-zero-authority">Net Zero Authority</a> “to ensure the workers, industries and communities that have powered Australia for generations can seize the opportunities of Australia’s net zero transformation.”</p>
<p>The authority is expected to “help investors and companies to engage with net zero transformation opportunities,” to help regions and communities attract new investment in clean energy, and to assist workers in the transition away from emissions-intensive industries.</p>
<p>To design the legislation to create the Net Zero Authority and to “immediately kick-start” its work, in July the government set up an interim body known as the <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/net-zero-economy-agency">Net Zero Economic Agency</a>, located in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.</p>
<p>The agency is chaired by former Labor climate change minister Greg Combet and supported by a ten-member <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/appointment-net-zero-economy-agency-and-advisory-board">advisory board</a>. The mining industry and mining unions are well represented, holding three seats. However, many key stakeholders, including environmental and climate NGOs and the social welfare sector, are not represented.</p>
<p>At the same time, climate minister Chris Bowen has established a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-delivering-australias-climate-and-energy-transformation">Net Zero Taskforce</a> in the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water to advise on the 2035 emissions reduction target and the plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Guided by the advice of the Climate Change Authority, the taskforce will develop <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">six sectoral decarbonisation plans</a> in:</p>
<ul>
<li>electricity and energy</li>
<li>industry</li>
<li>resources</li>
<li>the built environment</li>
<li>agriculture and land</li>
<li>transport.</li>
</ul>
<p>How the work of all these bodies fits together is unclear. An overarching Net Zero National Cabinet Committee, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">as suggested</a> by the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood, could provide the necessary coordination, as long as it is guided by an integrated strategy for a net zero just transition.</p>
<p>Yet a just transition is not mentioned on government websites relating to the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">interim agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">taskforce</a>, other than to say that they will engage with communities, industry, First Nations, and unions, with an emphasis on affected workers in regions. There is no earmarked funding, institutional innovation, or capacity building to enable inclusive dialogues across communities and society.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>Lessons in dialogue at home and overseas</h2>
<p>The Net Zero Authority is well positioned to coordinate and fund such dialogues, which are best approached from a perspective geared towards <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2108365">systemic change</a>.</p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/">Sydney Policy Lab</a> has found in its community “listening campaign” on the climate transition in <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/research-and-policy/real-deal.html">Geelong</a>, the authority’s transition planning will lack support if it ignores the issues (such as secure housing and affordable living) communities most worry about.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Such approaches have already met with considerable success elsewhere. In Denmark, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">an OECD study</a> found social dialogues have been a significant factor in the country’s successful transition to wind power. It now accounts for <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-power-meets-and-beats-denmarks-total-electricity-demand-two-days-in-a-row/">a major share</a> of Denmark’s energy output.</p>
<p>And in Sweden, the government’s Innovation Agency, <a href="https://rri-tools.eu/-/designing-missions-mission-oriented-innovation-in-sweden-a-practice-guide-by-vinnova#:%7E:text=SUMMARY&text=This%20book%20describes%20how%20Vinnova,developed%20by%20Vinnova%20in%20detail">Vinnova</a>, has recently developed highly collaborative processes for redesigning energy, food and other systems to achieve net zero and other goals.</p>
<p>Far from slowing the transition, a commitment to inclusive dialogue will secure it by building the social license for change, while ensuring some measure of accountability for the injustices of the fossil fuel era.</p>
<p>The more inclusive the dialogue, the better the government will be able to minimise political backlash as decarbonisation accelerates.</p>
<h2>A national net zero summit</h2>
<p>To reach these outcomes will need significant coordination between federal, state and local governments, and across government departments.</p>
<p>To jumpstart this process, and building on the success of <a href="https://nexteconomy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/TNE-CQ-Energy-Futures-Report-02_0601.pdf">regional summits</a>, a national summit should be convened to explore the perspectives and initiatives of a wide range of stakeholders. That means not just unions and workers (as important as they may be) but also climate and energy NGOs, local governments and historically marginalised communities.</p>
<p>A net zero summit would place the perspectives of policy elites and incumbent interests in dialogue with the diverse demands of citizens. It must include Indigenous communities, on whose lands much of the renewable energy infrastructure is likely to be built and critical minerals likely to be extracted.</p>
<p>Debate at the summit cannot be perfunctory. It must provide ample space for many voices. The goal is to discover, propose and fund a net zero transition in ways that don’t unduly privilege the needs of investors and companies, but instead champion the wisdom and solutions of local communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robyn Eckersley has received research funding in the past from the Australian Research Council and she currently hold a research grant with the Research Council of Norway. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Fitz-Henry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s clean energy transition cannot succeed unless the government opens debate and decision-making to many more voices.Robyn Eckersley, Redmond Barry Professor of Political Science, School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of MelbourneErin Fitz-Henry, Senior Lecturer in Anthropology, University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183722023-11-29T08:52:54Z2023-11-29T08:52:54ZDenmark’s biggest spy scandal raises questions on how to try intelligence officials<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/02/scandinavian-spy-drama-the-intelligence-chief-who-came-under-state-surveillance">biggest spy scandal</a> in Denmark’s history closed not with a bang, but with a whimper. On November 1 the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/04/ex-danish-defence-minister-and-spy-chief-relieved-after-charges-dropped">Danish Supreme Court ruled</a> that a case involving leaked state secrets could go not go ahead in secret. In response, the state prosecutor <a href="https://anklagemyndigheden.dk/da/straffesagerne-mod-lars-findsen-og-claus-hjort-frederiksen-gennemfoeres-ikke">dropped the case</a>. Thus ended a three-year attempt to prosecute <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59951041">Denmark’s highest ranking spy chief</a> and a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59992534">veteran defence minister</a>. But many questions remain unanswered. Among them: how can openness be ensured in a democratic society?</p>
<p>In August 2020, Lars Findsen, head of the Danish foreign intelligence service, was suspended. A <a href="https://jyllands-posten.dk/indland/ECE13626986/overblik-tidslinje-i-fesagen/">three-judge commission</a> found him blameless, but he was indicted and arrested in December 2021 and jailed until February 2022, charged with leaking top-secret information. In December 2021, former Danish Defence Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen was also charged with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59992534">leaking state secrets</a>. An unnamed third intelligence agency worker also faced charges. All charges have now been dropped.</p>
<p>What exactly Findsen and Hjort were accused of leaking was classified. However, there was significant press speculation, including claims that the spy chief and former minister disclosed information relating to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/31/us-spied-on-merkel-top-eu-officials-through-danish-cables">classified arrangement involving Danish security services and the US National Security Agency</a>. </p>
<p>This public speculation appears to have informed the Danish Supreme Court’s decision to reject the prosecutor’s demand that the case go forward behind closed doors.</p>
<h2>A state within a state?</h2>
<p>Democratic societies require transparency in government action and procedural safeguards for criminal law defendants. But security services are necessary defence institutions that must be able to act in secret to protect the nation. </p>
<p>The prosecutor asserts it was required to drop its case because Danish courts did not offer necessary secrecy protection. It was ruled that certain case-related documents must be made available to the defence. The state prosecutor had strenuously resisted the provision of top secret documents to a defendant accused of leaking top secret documents. In its <a href="https://anklagemyndigheden.dk/da/straffesagerne-mod-lars-findsen-og-claus-hjort-frederiksen-gennemfoeres-ikke">statement withdrawing the case</a>, the prosecutor said that the lack of secrecy meant that the intelligence service would no longer permit its material to be used in the case.</p>
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<p>“<em>The Supreme Court has ruled that Lars Findsen will be able to take classified information home, without requirements on how it should be stored or who has access to it. This will, of course, significantly increase the risk of information being spread uncontrollably. Therefore, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service has informed the prosecution service that the classified information cannot be presented as evidence in a criminal case.”</em> </p>
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<p>This is interesting because beyond the competing questions of security, we see issues of power and authority. The prosecutor asserted it was dropping the case because it no longer had the evidence upon which the case was based, as the intelligence service had withdrawn it. This move by the intelligence service – akin to taking its ball and going home when it doesn’t like the decision of the referee – added to a concern held by some that the Danish intelligence services are developing their own self-regulating state within the Danish state.</p>
<h2>Where does Denmark go from here?</h2>
<p>Discussion regarding the case and its conclusion has been vigorous and heated across Denmark’s political divides. From right of centre, allegations have flourished charging that Findsen’s surveillance was politically motivated by centre-left political actors. Findsen himself suggests as much in his bestselling book, <em><a href="https://www.saxo.com/dk/spionchefen_bog_9788740078107">Spymasters</a></em> (in Danish: ‘Spionchefen’) published in 2022.</p>
<p>The present government, a left-right coalition, includes parties that called for the Prime Minister’s removal over this and other politicised cases in the last elections. When the present government came to power late in 2022, it announced a second three-judge commission to investigate the case. Its remit has been expanded following the dropping of the case, though <a href="https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/kristian-hegaard-konklusionerne-fra-fe-kommissionen-30-er-givet-paa-forhaand">some commentators</a> remain remain doubtful about what it can achieve. </p>
<p>There is also concern that a case of such significance has been frustrated by general procedural requirements blind to the specialised needs of security services. Some <a href="https://www.zetland.dk/historie/sO3V3nAk-m8qD36XA-69610">point to Sweden</a>, which recently held a top-secret spy trial without incurring charges that it was operating outside democratic bounds, as a counter example for how things could be done.</p>
<p>This concern is reflected in <a href="https://www.justitsministeriet.dk/pressemeddelelse/udtalelse-fra-justitsminister-peter-hummelgaard/">public remarks</a> made by Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard, who is from the same centre-left party as the prime minister, addressing the dropped indictment:</p>
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<p>“Given the legal situation established by the Supreme Court’s rulings, it will be extremely difficult to conduct criminal proceedings for breach of professional secrecy in relation to the country’s most confidential information. Regardless of the specific cases, the government considers this to be an untenable legal situation. I have therefore asked the authorities concerned to consider appropriate legislative changes in this area.”</p>
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<p>It remains to be seen what legislative changes may be considered. The claim that the outcome indicates a system failure that must be addressed ought to be regarded with caution, however. Denmark’s Supreme Court is <a href="https://forskning.ku.dk/soeg/result/?pure=da/publications/constitutional-identity-in-denmark-extracting-constitutional-identity-in-the-context-of-a-restrained-supreme-court-and-a-strong-legislature(43c40fe2-f3e1-4371-9ced-3b647cead9a8)/export.html">notoriously restrained</a>. Even the history-making 2016 Ajos case, where the Danish Supreme Court <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/legal-disintegration-the-ruling-of-the-danish-supreme-court-in-ajos/">rejected the supremacy of EU law</a>, should be understood as a challenge of external authority. </p>
<p>Many Danish political actors are looking for a scapegoat. Making this scapegoat the Danish Supreme Court could set a dangerous political precedent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerstin Bree Carlson a reçu des financements de Nordic Research Council for Criminology.</span></em></p>The curious case of the Danish spy chief and former minister may be over, but key questions about secrecy and democracy remain.Kerstin Bree Carlson, Associate Professor International Law, Roskilde UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147092023-10-04T19:05:43Z2023-10-04T19:05:43ZMade in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero<p>Just over a year since US President Joe Biden signed the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act">Inflation Reduction Act</a> (IRA) into law, it’s becoming clear this strangely named piece of legislation could have a powerful impact in spurring the global transition to net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>But the vast amount of investment unleashed by the IRA has raised tensions with some of the United States’ closest allies, and creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Australia’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
<p>In his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/08/biden-signs-order-government-net-zero-emissions-2050">to commit the US to net zero</a> by 2050, and to spend US$2 trillion to get there – the biggest investment in manufacturing since World War II. Biden is delivering on those promises.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> included about $100 billion for electric vehicles and for speeding the electricity grid’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
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<h2>The IRA changes the landscape</h2>
<p>Passage of the IRA, in August 2022, ensured a swathe of green technologies would benefit from tax credits, loans, customer rebates and other incentives.</p>
<p>The original announcement estimated that uncapped subsidies over ten years would be US$369 billion, but <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-us-is-poised-for-an-energy-revolution.html">Goldman Sachs Research now estimates that total subsidies</a> could reach US$1.2 trillion and attract US$3 trillion investment by industry. That’s trillion, not billion.</p>
<p>Already, <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">272 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing projects</a> in the US, including 91 in batteries, 65 in electric vehicles and 84 in wind and solar power, have been announced. These projects are estimated to <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">create 170,000 jobs</a>, predominantly in Republican-led states.</p>
<p>The IRA is all carrot, no stick. It contains no carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes. Instead, tax credits for capital expenditure and production costs encourage companies to invest in solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, electric vehicles and other zero emissions technologies.</p>
<p>This approach is shifting the debate on the best way to reach net zero emissions. To free-market economists who ask why government should invest in private sector industries, the answer is that the green energy transition is not natural. Renewable energy would never have advanced without Germany subsidising solar and Denmark subsidising wind.</p>
<p>Subsidies and mandates are also crucial in explaining why, last year, Chinese vehicle manufacturers produced 64% of the global total of 10.5 million electric vehicle sales, and deployed about half of the global capacity additions in solar and wind power.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Industrial policy to protect the climate</h2>
<p>The IRA is America’s response. More than climate policy, it is industrial policy, replete with made-in-America provisions. Companies are more likely to obtain tax credits if they employ unionised labour, train apprentices and set up shop in states that are transitioning out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Consumers will earn a $7,500 federal tax credit on an electric car only if that car is assembled and at least half the battery made in America. Similarly, wind and solar projects will earn tax credits only if half of their manufactured components are made in America.</p>
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<p>These policies were made with China in mind. Both main US parties agree the US must reduce its dependence on sourcing minerals and products from China, and move towards a new form of “<a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/a-united-front-how-the-us-and-the-eu-can-move-beyond-trade-tensions-to-counter-china/">strategic economic nationalism</a>”.</p>
<p>Yet while America’s strongest allies are also alarmed by the challenge from China, they are disturbed by aspects of the IRA. They fear that to benefit from its subsidies, their own clean energy companies might pack up shop and establish plants in the US.</p>
<p>The European Union, for example, has praised the IRA’s overall approach, but <a href="https://energywatch.com/EnergyNews/Policy___Trading/article14567471.ece">fiercely criticised</a> its made-in-America provisions. French President Emmanuel Macron called the Act “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-visits-nasa-talks-space-cooperation-us-visit-begins-2022-11-30/">super aggressive</a>” toward European companies. European leaders say the IRA violates trade rules by discriminating against imported products, and could “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-foreign-governments-seek-changes-us-ev-tax-rules-2022-11-08/">trigger a harmful global subsidy race to the bottom</a> on key technologies and inputs for the green transition.”</p>
<p>Yet even as it criticises the US, the EU <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-united-states-inflation-reduction-act-subsidies-investment-threat-data/">has responded to the IRA</a> by relaxing its rules and allowing individual states to provide direct support to clean energy companies to stop them taking their projects to the US.</p>
<p><a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/how-inflation-reduction-act-changed-canada">Canada</a>, worried about investment flowing south to benefit from the IRA even though its free trade agreement with the US should give its companies access to the subsidies, has also announced tax credits and programs to boost clean energy production. <a href="https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230513-109457/">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/samsung-drives-400-billion-south-korea-plan-to-propel-key-tech?sref=wpjMCURG">South Korea</a> have announced similar programs.</p>
<h2>Why the IRA challenges Australia</h2>
<p>In Australia, before the IRA was legislated, the Morrison government <a href="https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/newsroom/transforming-australia-s-critical-minerals-sector/">provided a A$1.25 billion loan</a> to Iluka Resources to fund construction of an integrated rare-earths refinery in Western Australia. The refinery will produce separated rare earth oxide products that are used in permanent magnets in electric vehicles, clean energy generation and defence.</p>
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<p>But Australia risks being left behind in the race to build clean energy industries. The US could so heavily subsidise <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen">green hydrogen production</a> that our own planned industry – seen as a foundation of our aspiration to be <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/july/australia-energy-future#:%7E:text=Australia%20has%20vast%20amounts%20of,change%20from%20challenge%20to%20opportunity.">a clean energy superpower</a> – will be uncompetitive, leading our aspiring manufacturers to set up shop in the US.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282">'Green steel' is hailed as the next big thing in Australian industry. Here's what the hype is all about</a>
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<p>The IRA, however, brings Australia many potential benefits. The US wants to source the raw and refined materials it needs from countries, such as Australia, with which it has a free trade agreement. To respond to this interest, Australian industry, transport and mining must have access to low-emissions electricity.</p>
<p>The US will be an essential market for our <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/04/05/the-energy-transition-will-need-more-rare-earth-elements-can-we-secure-them-sustainably/">rare earths</a> such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, used to make the powerful permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors. Australia can also build new industrial processes and supply chains so that we earn more from decarbonised metallic iron, aluminium and nitrogenous fertiliser. We can ship our renewable energy in the form of hydrogen and ammonia.</p>
<p>In this race, Australia’s friendship with the US and volatile relationship with China could be decisive. The IRA does not spell out the concept of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/onshoring-and-friend-shoring-us-ev-supply-chains-what-are-boundaries">friend-shoring</a> but nevertheless it seeks “to onshore and friend-shore the electric vehicle supply chain, to capture the benefits of a new supply chain and reduce entanglement with China,” according to the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies.</p>
<p>The IRA denies electric vehicle tax credits when any component or critical mineral in the vehicle is sourced from China or any “foreign entity of concern.” </p>
<p>A clean energy trade war is just one of the potential obstacles that could prevent the full benefits of the IRA being realised. Many communities in the US and Australia are resisting the installation of new transmission lines, wind farms and other clean energy infrastructure, and these objections are often on environmental grounds – the so-called <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474">Greens’ Dilemma</a>. And a win for Donald Trump in next year’s presidential election could reverse American climate policy.</p>
<p>Yet on balance, the IRA can only be good for getting to net zero. It brings the US in from the climate wilderness to be a leader in emissions reduction, helping to drive new technologies and lower costs that will benefit not only America but the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel is chair of the Hysata Advisory Council and an investor in the company. He is a member of the Rio Tinto Innovation Advisory Council. </span></em></p>The Biden Administration’s signature climate legislation is unleashing a wave of clean energy investment, along with some opportunities and risks for countries like Australia.Alan Finkel, Chair of ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Biotechnology, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118492023-08-29T12:26:36Z2023-08-29T12:26:36ZQuran burning in Sweden prompts debate on the fine line between freedom of expression and incitement of hatred<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544675/original/file-20230824-19-8rlhm4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=168%2C38%2C8433%2C5665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Iraqis raise copies of the Quran during a protest in Baghdad, Iraq, on July 22, 2023, following reports of the burning of the holy book in Copenhagen.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/QuranProtests/a55d505a51d943e58a22e22e6536ba60/photo?Query=raqis%20raise%20copies%20of%20the%20Quran%20during%20a%20protest%20in%20Tahrir%20Square%20on%20in%20Baghdad,%20Iraq&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=779&currentItemNo=0&vs=true">AP Photo/Hadi Mizban</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Swedish government is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-raise-terrorist-threat-assessment-daily-dn-2023-08-17/">concerned about national security</a> following several incidents involving the burning of the Quran that have provoked demonstrations and outrage from Muslim-majority countries.</p>
<p>The spate of Quran-burning incidents followed <a href="https://www.thequint.com/news/world/far-right-leader-rasmus-paludan-burns-quran-in-sweden-worldwide-condemnation-from-muslims-turkey-saudi-pakistan">an act of desecration</a> by far-right activist Rasmus Paludan on Jan. 21, 2023, in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. On Aug. 25, Denmark’s government said it would “criminalize” desecration of religious objects and moved a bill <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/world/europe/denmark-quran-burning.html#:%7E:text=Denmark's%20government%20said%20on%20Friday,in%20many%20Muslim%2Dmajority%20countries.">banning the burning of scriptures</a>. </p>
<p>While freedom of expression is a fundamental human right in liberal democracies, the right to express one’s opinion can become complex when expressing one’s views clashes with the religious and cultural beliefs of others and when this rhetoric veers into hate speech.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.arminlanger.net/">scholar of European studies</a>, I’m interested in how modern European societies are trying to navigate the fine line between freedom of expression and the need to prevent incitement of hatred; a few are introducing laws specifically addressing hate speech. </p>
<h2>Death penalty for insulting God and church</h2>
<p>Since medieval times, because of the dominant role of Christianity in political and cultural life, blasphemy against Christian beliefs in European countries was severely punished. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108242189.018">the Danish Code from 1683 punished people</a> by cutting off their tongue, head or hands. Similarly, in Britain, both on the main island and in its overseas colonies, blasphemy was punished with executions. In 1636, English Puritan settlers in Massachusetts <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/anti-blasphemy-laws-have-a-history-in-america/">instituted the penalty of death</a> for blasphemy. </p>
<p>For centuries, blasphemy laws were viewed by religious and civil leaders as safeguards for keeping society orderly and strengthening religious rules and influence. These laws showed how much power and influence religious groups wielded back then. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white painting showing a church leader holding a crucifix and wood being piled up to burn a man, while a crowd looks on." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544778/original/file-20230825-21-am7gat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A painting showing a man being executed for heresy in July 1826.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/AUTODAF%C3%89_A_VALENCE_%28Juillet_1826%29.jpg">(E)manccipa-Ment via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>During the Enlightenment, from the 1600s to the 1700s, <a href="https://world101.cfr.org/contemporary-history/prelude-global-era/what-enlightenment-and-how-did-it-transform-politics">religious institutions began losing power</a>. Advocating for a strict separation of church and state, France became the first country to repeal its blasphemy law in 1881. Seven other European countries repealed their laws between the 1900s and 2000s, including <a href="https://www.eurel.info/spip.php?rubrique542&lang=en">Sweden</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/02/denmark-scraps-334-year-old-blasphemy-law">and, more recently, Denmark</a>.</p>
<h2>European landscape of blasphemy laws</h2>
<p>Several countries in Europe retain blasphemy laws, but their approaches are highly varied. Often the laws may not prevent present-day acts like dishonoring of religious texts. </p>
<p>In Russia, legislators introduced a federal law in 2013 <a href="https://www.article19.org/data/files/medialibrary/3729/13-05-03-LA-russia.pdf">criminalizing public insults</a> of religious beliefs. This followed some provocative performances by the Moscow-based feminist protest art group Pussy Riot. One such protest, a “punk prayer,” in a Moscow cathedral in 2012 criticized the close ties between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Putin regime. </p>
<p>Since 1969, the German penal code has forbidden the public slander of religions and worldviews. While Germany rarely enforces this law, in 2006 an anti-Islam activist got a <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/man-who-made-koran-toilet-paper-escapes-jail-1.1019869">one-year suspended prison sentence</a> for distributing toilet paper with the words “Quran, the Holy Quran” printed on it. </p>
<p>Austria and Switzerland have laws quite similar to Germany’s in this regard. In 2011, a person in Vienna was fined for calling the Islamic prophet Muhammad a pedophile. This case later went up to the European Court of Human Rights, which supported the Viennese court’s decision. The court said that the person wasn’t trying to have a useful discussion but instead <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/?library=ECHR&id=003-6234980-8105265&filename=Judgment%20E.S.%20v.%20Austria%20-">just wanted to show that the prophet Muhammad shouldn’t be respected</a>.</p>
<p>Spain, too, takes a <a href="https://www.mjusticia.gob.es/es/AreaTematica/DocumentacionPublicaciones/Documents/Criminal_Code_2016.pdf">strong stance against religious disrespect</a>. Its penal code makes it a crime to publicly belittle religious beliefs, practices or ceremonies in a way that could hurt the feelings of followers. While Spain introduced this law to safeguard Catholic interests, <a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/essays/national-laws-on-blasphemy-spain">it also covers religious minorities</a>. </p>
<p>Italy, another Catholic-majority country, punishes acts deemed to be disrespectful to religions. Its penal code has been used to punish actions that insult Christianity. For example, in 2017 <a href="https://hyperallergic.com/410323/hogre-jesus-chared-with-public-offense-italy/">authorities charged an artist</a> for depicting Jesus with an erect penis.</p>
<h2>Contemporary debate</h2>
<p>The Quran burnings in Sweden and Denmark, aren’t random – they’re part of a broader agenda of targeting Muslims that’s <a href="https://bridge.georgetown.edu/research/burning-the-quran-is-not-free-speech/">being pushed by far-right groups</a> across Europe. </p>
<p>In many European countries, lawmakers and others are asking whether these book burnings should be seen as exercises of free expression or more as incitement based on religion. </p>
<p>A few countries are introducing new legislation to <a href="https://sas-space.sas.ac.uk/2064/1/Amicus76_Kearns.pdf">curb hate speech against religious communities</a>. For example, in 2006 England got rid of the blasphemy law and <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2007/2490/introduction/made">introduced The Racial and Religious Hatred Act</a>, which makes it an offense to stir up religious hatred. After repealing its blasphemy law in 2020, Ireland has been discussing the introduction of a <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/74ed9-new-bill-to-tackle-hate-crime-and-hate-speech-includes-clear-provision-to-protect-freedom-of-expression/">hate speech law</a>, which will criminalize any communication or behavior that is likely to incite violence or hatred.</p>
<p>Sweden passed a hate speech law in 1970 protecting racial, ethnic, religious and sexual minorities. Swedish authorities pointed to this legislation when they <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-police-approve-small-anti-koran-demonstration-mosque-2023-06-28/">took action against a Quran-burning incident</a> that occurred in front of a mosque in June 2023. </p>
<p>The police argued that the Quran burning wasn’t just about religion but specifically <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/why-does-sweden-allow-quran-burnings-it-has-no-blasphemy-laws-/7190103.html">targeted the Muslim community</a>. This was evident, according to the authorities, as the incident took place in front of a mosque <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-police-approve-small-anti-koran-demonstration-mosque-2023-06-28/">during the Islamic holiday of Eid</a>, setting it apart from other burnings that took place outside of the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/14/copy-of-quran-desecrated-outside-stockholms-royal-palace">Swedish Royal Palace</a>, <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/swedish-police-grant-permit-for-protest-outside-iraqi-embassy-in-stockholm-where-quran-was-burned">the Turkish and Iraqi embassies</a> and other public spaces. Because of the existing hate speech law focusing on incitement against minorities rather than religions, the activist received a fine from the police.</p>
<p>In recent weeks, some have called for a stricter application of the hate speech law and have demanded a ban on all Quran-burning events for <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66310285">implicitly inciting hatred against Muslims</a>. </p>
<h2>A global challenge</h2>
<p>This discussion isn’t limited to Europe alone. Even in the U.S., there’s an ongoing debate about the boundaries of free speech. The First Amendment of the Constitution allows free speech, which some can interpret as the right to burn holy books.</p>
<p>Terry Jones, for instance, is a controversial Christian pastor from Florida. He organized <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/florida-pastor-terry-joness-koran-burning-has-far-reaching-effect/2011/04/02/AFpiFoQC_story.html">Quran-burning events</a> in Gainesville in 2011 <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012%2F04%2F29%2F211022">and 2012</a>. His only legal consequence was a <a href="https://talkabout.iclrs.org/2019/12/10/1045/">US$271 fine from Gainesville Fire Rescue</a> for not following fire safety rules. </p>
<p>Following Jones’ announcement that he was going to burn the Quran, President Barack Obama said that the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/president-obama-terry-jones-koran-burning-plan-destructive/story?id=11589122">pastor violated U.S. principles of religious tolerance</a>. Legal scholar <a href="https://law.yale.edu/jack-m-balkin">Jack Balkin</a> recommended <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/09/10/balkin.first.amendment/index.html">using free speech</a> in promoting pluralist values to counter Jones’ hatred. Scholar of law and religion <a href="https://talkabout.iclrs.org/authors-2/iclrs-authors/jane-wise/">Jane Wise</a> suggested that the <a href="https://talkabout.iclrs.org/2019/12/10/1045/">U.S. could follow the English example</a> by banning hate speech. </p>
<p>As societies change, I believe it has become important to recognize when freedom of speech has turned into promoting hatred. Figuring out where this boundary lies, understanding the standards applied and uncovering potential biases can spark important conversations. While a solution that applies to every single country may not exist, it’s essential to engage in this dialogue, recognizing its complexity and the varying perspectives across societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211849/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Armin Langer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Several countries across Europe are introducing new legislation to curb hate speech against religions, even as they get rid of older blasphemy laws.Armin Langer, Assistant Professor of European Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093522023-07-07T14:29:18Z2023-07-07T14:29:18ZThe history behind Orkney’s vote to ‘join Norway’<p>For the third time in half a century, Orkney, UK, has raised the issue of its Nordic origins and an apparent desire to embrace them once more. Earlier this week, Orkney Islands Council voted on a <a href="https://www.orkney.gov.uk/Files/Committees-and-Agendas/Council-Meetings/GM2023/GM04-07-2023/Item%2015%20Notice%20of%20Motion.pdf">motion</a> to begin exploring options of “greater subsidiarity and autonomy”, potentially looking beyond the UK and Scottish borders to build “Nordic connections”.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A July front page of Orkney's newspaper, The Orcadian" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536299/original/file-20230707-23-fswcxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536299/original/file-20230707-23-fswcxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536299/original/file-20230707-23-fswcxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536299/original/file-20230707-23-fswcxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536299/original/file-20230707-23-fswcxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536299/original/file-20230707-23-fswcxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536299/original/file-20230707-23-fswcxe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The front page of The Orcadian newspaper this week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.orcadian.co.uk/">The Orcadian</a></span>
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<p>This decision has made <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-66066448">national</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/03/scotlands-orkney-islands-consider-quitting-the-uk-to-join-norway.html">international</a> headlines. These were centred on the possibility that the island group, located ten miles from the north coast of Scotland, may seek to become a Norwegian territory. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.shetnews.co.uk/2020/09/09/sic-to-explore-ways-of-achieving-self-determination-after-elected-members-back-motion">similar motion</a> was passed in the neighbouring Shetland Islands in 2020. Could this be the latest constitutional crisis to rock the United Kingdom?</p>
<p>As these news reports typically highlight, Orkney and Shetland were <a href="https://www.shetlandmuseumandarchives.org.uk/blog/550-years-ago-how-shetland-became-part-of-scotland-part-2">part of the Norwegian and Danish kingdoms</a> until their annexation by Scotland in 1472. Orcadians and Shetlanders do not identify as Norwegians or Danes today, but they retain distinct identities which for some – though not all – include aspects of this Norse heritage. </p>
<p>Orkney’s motion joins a long history of attempts by activists and local politicians to use this distinct identity to draw attention to grievances with central government.</p>
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<h2>Back to Scandinavia</h2>
<p>In August 1967, Orkney’s largest settlements of Kirkwall and Stromness awoke to a poster campaign <a href="https://photos.orkneycommunities.co.uk/picture/number1586.asp">calling</a> for Orkney to return “Back to Denmark”. One poster declared: “Orkney is dying under British rule, reunite with Denmark now.” The campaign produced widespread news coverage, making headlines in Edinburgh, London, Denmark and even as far away as Singapore.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white image of five people drawing protest posters in Orkney." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536300/original/file-20230707-21-t5tnv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536300/original/file-20230707-21-t5tnv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536300/original/file-20230707-21-t5tnv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536300/original/file-20230707-21-t5tnv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536300/original/file-20230707-21-t5tnv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536300/original/file-20230707-21-t5tnv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536300/original/file-20230707-21-t5tnv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pro-breakaway campaigners in 1967.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mathew Nicolson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The immediate trigger was the government’s policy of centralising police forces and water boards into regional bodies, abolishing Orkney’s local institutions. It was feared that Orkney’s local government would soon follow. There were also grievances concerning the expensive cost of transport and the government’s inadequate response to a shipping strike the previous year.</p>
<p>In an interview with The Observer, one campaign organiser was described as “plainly delighted with the astonishing commotion he has caused”, clearly recognising the potential for this provocative use of Orkney’s distinct identity to draw attention to the islands’ grievances. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.orcadian.co.uk/">The Orcadian</a>, Orkney’s sole newspaper, declared “it was all a joke” that had taken the rest of Britain “for a ride” – before adding: “but it has its serious side”.</p>
<p>Orkney’s Nordic ties were invoked again in 1986. Amid a campaign against a proposed expansion to <a href="https://www.euppublishing.com/doi/full/10.3366/shr.2021.0498">Dounreay nuclear power station</a> in Caithness, activists from Orkney and Shetland drew up the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/25/orkney-shetland-people-referendum-edinburgh-london">Declaration of Wyre</a>.</p>
<p>Addressed to the kings of Norway and Denmark, the declaration called on them to “consult on our constitutional status” and to “inquire into the legality in international law of siting a nuclear processing plant … in an area of unresolved constitutional status.” Once again, historical ties to Scandinavia were used to highlight a contemporary and thoroughly modern political concern.</p>
<h2>Political failures</h2>
<p>As in 1967 and 1986, Orkney Islands Council’s motion to explore greater autonomy and Nordic connections is centred on current political issues. The council is frustrated at failures to reach an agreement with the Scottish government to fund the replacement of its ageing inter-island ferries or secure adequate ferry fare subsidies. </p>
<p>There is also anger at the broader trend of centralisation that followed the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999.</p>
<p>Invoking the possibility of constitutional change, especially when this draws on the islands’ Norse heritage, is a proven strategy for gaining media and political attention. External actors are often willing to make use of eye-grabbing headlines or gain additional ammunition for national constitutional quarrels. </p>
<p>This is well understood by activists and local politicians. Orkney council leader James Stockan acknowledged that the media response to his motion has been “a remarkable result”.</p>
<p>So is this simply a PR stunt hatched by a council seeking additional funds at a time of increasing crisis within the UK’s public services? Not entirely. </p>
<p>There is a <a href="http://www.scottishgovernmentyearbooks.ed.ac.uk/record/22892">real history</a> of pro-autonomy sentiment to draw on, articulated to its greatest extent in the 1980s by the now defunct <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=qps14mSlghcC&pg=PA76&lpg=PA76&dq#v=onepage&q&f=false">Orkney Movement</a>. Most Orcadians (and Shetlanders) would endorse the principle of decentralisation. But more radical visions for autonomy have never gained demonstrable majority support.</p>
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<p>Orkney’s councillors are likely entirely sincere in their desire for decentralisation, if perhaps not to the extent of rejoining Norway or becoming a fully autonomous territory. However, neither Orkney nor Shetland’s autonomy motions passed unanimously. Like any other community, there are political differences which can sometimes be overlooked from outside perspectives.</p>
<p>It is unclear how most Orcadians and Shetlanders feel about their councils’ policies. These developments have not seen any meaningful engagement with or interest from the wider population – or, indeed, any electoral mandate from the islands’ voters.</p>
<p>The Orcadian conducted an online survey <a href="https://www.orcadian.co.uk/in-this-weeks-the-orcadian-170/">this week</a> which found a narrow majority of 51.4% support for the council’s policy, with 37.9% opposed. However, as this survey did not follow scientific polling methods and was also open to non-Orcadians to fill out, it can only provide a rough estimate of people’s views.</p>
<p>In contrast to the 1980s, when mobilised campaign movements pressured the councils into taking further action on autonomy, there is no grassroots momentum for constitutional change in the islands today. But it is possible that continued dissatisfaction with central government could lead to growing interest in the subject.</p>
<p>Orkney is not going to become a Norwegian territory and significant constitutional change is unlikely to appear in the near future. That said, the idea of autonomy will continue to be attractive for some. As long as this remains the case, local activists and politicians will continue to use their islands’ distinct heritages in creative ways to make their voices heard.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209352/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mathew Nicolson received funding from the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland.</span></em></p>Bringing up the subjects of autonomy and Norway has always been an effective way for Orcadians to draw attention to their grievances with central government.Mathew Nicolson, PhD Candidate in History, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032462023-04-18T14:20:27Z2023-04-18T14:20:27ZEurope outsourcing asylum to African countries is a terrible idea – there are alternatives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521017/original/file-20230414-14-uqt1v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigerien police processing Emergency Travel Mechanism evacuees in Niamey, Niger in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laura Lambert </span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-349-94972-4_2">For 40 years</a>, western governments have entertained ideas of outsourcing asylum processing and refugee hosting to the global south. It is not a new idea. And neither are the controversies that have accompanied it. </p>
<p>Denmark and the UK have been in the news over this issue recently. In January 2023, however, after fierce domestic criticism, the new Danish government <a href="https://www.thelocal.dk/20230125/denmarks-has-suspended-asylum-centre-talks-with-rwanda">announced</a> it had paused its negotiations with Rwanda to bilaterally “transfer” all asylum seekers out of Denmark. Instead it suggested building an EU alliance to do the same. This step appeared at odds with the <a href="https://euobserver.com/migration/152193">criticism</a> of the Danish plans from both the European Commission and the <a href="https://ecre.org/denmark-meps-confront-danish-minister-on-rogue-asylum-policies-as-syrians-flee-to-other-member-states/">European Parliament</a>.</p>
<p>The UK, too, wanted to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. The plan was temporarily <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jun/15/what-is-the-echr-and-how-did-it-intervene-in-uk-rwanda-flight-plans">halted</a> by the European Court of Human Rights in 2022. For its part, the British High Court <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-61782866">didn’t condemn</a> the policy as illegal. So it may be revived. </p>
<p>In line with these and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/new-german-migration-official-aims-to-send-refugees-to-africa/a-64667296">other</a> recent policy initiatives, prominent migration researcher Ruud Koopmans <a href="https://www.berlingske.dk/debatinterview/i-2018-faeldede-ruud-koopmans-en-knusende-dom-over-den-muslimske">supported</a> the idea of sending asylum seekers to Tunisia. But his endorsement was poorly timed, coming right after the African Union <a href="https://theconversation.com/tunisia-presidents-offensive-statements-targeted-black-migrants-with-widespread-fallout-201593">condemned</a> Tunisia for systematic racist violence against sub-Saharan migrants.</p>
<p>We’ve conducted <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23340460.2019.1683463">research</a> into European policies to discourage immigrants, and <a href="https://www.fmreview.org/externalisation/lambert">implementation</a> of emergency refugee evacuations from Libya to Niger. Based on this we explain the risks and frequent failures of outsourcing schemes, and offer more pragmatic alternatives for European asylum policies.</p>
<h2>Why these policies fail</h2>
<p>Initiatives to outsource asylum – known as “externalisation” – have frequently failed on different levels. </p>
<p>First, since the 1980s, there has not been enough political support in Europe for these radical ideas. Although vocal, proponents have remained a minority at the common European level. </p>
<p>Second, international organisations have voiced sustained criticism. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)<a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-au/news/press/2021/5/60a2751813/unhcr-warns-against-exporting-asylum-calls-responsibility-sharing-refugees.html">implored</a> the Danish government to abandon its externalisation ambitions. It said that they undermined international solidarity and could lead to chain refoulement. This happens when one state after another successively deport a person under inhumane and degrading conditions. Instead, it encouraged Denmark to focus on improving the safe and orderly access to asylum. </p>
<p>Third, most countries have repeatedly rejected hosting these designs. The African Union <a href="https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20210802/press-statement-denmarks-alien-act-provision-externalize-asylum-procedures">condemned</a> the Danish plans in 2021. It said that developing countries already hosted 85% of the world’s refugees, and that such policies were xenophobic. A growing academic literature also argues that such externalisation policies actually represent a continuation of racialising <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23340460.2019.1683463">colonial practices</a> of transferring displaced people through imperial territories. </p>
<p>In practice, these proposals offer little substance more than hot air. They appear designed to appeal to domestic voters rather than to solve displacement. </p>
<p>For instance, in 2018 the <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/20180628-euco-conclusions-final/">European Council proposed</a> taking people who had been trying to reach Europe on boats in the Mediterranean to centres in North Africa for asylum processing. It remained a press release issued by national ministers unconnected to any EU policy process. The African Union <a href="https://www.eepa.be/?p=2713">criticised</a> the proposal as a violation of international law.</p>
<p>Yet Germany recently <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/new-german-migration-official-aims-to-send-refugees-to-africa/a-64667296">revisited these plans</a> – but only in a press interview. This seemed geared to accommodate conservative voters after government announcements of liberalising <a href="https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/45142/germany-bundestag-passes-opportunity-right-of-residency-law">residency</a> and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-needs-better-rules-for-citizenship-says-scholz/a-63901447">citizenship legislation</a>. </p>
<p>Announcing such plans without consulting potential partner states or regional bodies suggests revived colonial fantasies where all states in the global south can be paid off. Also, it demonstrates a complete disregard for any opposition among such states’ electorates. </p>
<h2>Niger and Rwanda</h2>
<p>Certainly, Europe’s financial-political incentives can weigh on different sub-Saharan governments. Rwanda received <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-61782866">£140 million</a> from the UK in advance to build accommodation. Rwanda has also used Danish and British desires to silence criticism of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/4/rwanda-backing-m23-rebels-in-drc-un-experts">its support for the M23 militia</a> in the Democratic Republic of Congo. </p>
<p>Niger got international praise for hosting refugees evacuated from Libyan prisons. Beyond new diplomatic recognition, it also <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-law-in-context/article/changing-the-administration-from-within-criticism-and-compliance-by-junior-bureaucrats-in-nigers-refugee-directorate/613C23CE83F34E83317DBF58173C58F9#article">received</a> additional resources for its asylum bureaucracy. <a href="https://www.academia.edu/45307925/Who_is_doing_asylum_in_Niger_State_bureaucrats_perspectives_and_strategies_on_the_externalization_of_refugee_protection_to_Niger">These included</a> a permanent camp infrastructure and salary increases for senior officials. </p>
<p>However, despite these incentives, outsourcing asylum risks also creates tensions in partner states. </p>
<p>First, refugees may get stuck in transit because their asylum claims are rejected, or because western governments abandon promises of resettlement. </p>
<p>In mid-2019, around 120 of 2,900 evacuees faced a rejection of their refugee claims. Both responsible Nigerien officials and refugees <a href="https://www.fmreview.org/externalisation/lambert">refused</a> their legalisation in Niger for various reasons.</p>
<p>The lack of economic opportunities in Niger weighed heavily on the refugees, as did the precarious security situation on the officials. According to local UNHCR staff in Niger, the government of Burkina Faso refused to host these refugees after hearing about Niger’s difficulties.</p>
<p>Second, outsourcing asylum procedures presupposes that the rule of law is functioning in the partner state. In Niger, the appeals process was <a href="https://www.bpb.de/shop/zeitschriften/apuz/festung-europa-2022/514216/zwischen-abenteuer-risiko-und-ueberleben/">neither operational nor independent</a>. For one thing, the appeal committee had not met for three years and consisted of the same departments as the first instance. </p>
<h2>Political alternatives</h2>
<p>If politicians really want to reduce deaths in the Mediterranean, often used as the purported motivation for externalisation, they should stop <a href="https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/45860/international-law-and-the-criminalization-of-sea-rescue">criminalising sea rescue</a>. </p>
<p>EU states could also make it possible to claim asylum at embassies or consulates. Several European countries allowed this until the early 2000s. Similarly, humanitarian visas could be issued from embassies, as <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/da/press-room/20160315IPR19499/meps-want-eu-embassies-and-consulates-to-grant-asylum-seekers-humanitarian-visas">argued</a> by European Parliament members in 2016. This requires more resources for screening and case-processing. </p>
<p>These would be real steps towards dismantling so-called smuggling economies, whose incentives have only increased with the one-sided EU focus on deterrence and border control. Safe entry procedures would be an approach fundamentally different from containing displaced populations far from Europe. </p>
<p>A modern and pragmatic migration policy should abandon <a href="https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/postcoloniality-and-forced-migration">postcolonial illusions</a> that massive global inequalities and displacement can be addressed through deterrence and the outsourcing of refugee protection to third countries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plans by European states to outsource their asylum procedures to African states often fail and don’t offer political alternatives to asylum in Europe.Laura Lambert, Senior Researcher, University of FreiburgMartin Lemberg-Pedersen, Honorary Associate Professor, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1972212023-01-05T20:33:11Z2023-01-05T20:33:11ZDNA reveals large migration into Scandinavia during the Viking age<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503216/original/file-20230105-20-c8gnzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More people moved into Scandinavia in Viking times than at any other time period analysed in the study.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/old-wooden-viking-snekkja-longship-type-2044280747">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We often think of the Vikings as ultimate explorers, taking their culture with them to far-off lands. But we may not typically think of Viking age Scandinavia as a hub for migration from all over Europe.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)01468-4">In a study published in Cell</a>, we show this is exactly what happened. The Viking period (late 8th century to mid 11th century) was the catalyst for an exceptional inflow of people into Scandinavia. These movements were greater than for any other period we analysed.</p>
<p>What’s also striking is that later Scandinavians don’t show the same high levels of non-local ancestry present in their Viking-era counterparts. We don’t completely understand why the migrants’ genetic impact was reduced in later Scandinavians, but there are some possibilities.</p>
<p>We analysed genomes (the full complement of DNA contained in human cells) from around 17,000 Scandinavian individuals, including nearly 300 from ancient burials. We combined <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982218308443">existing datasets</a> with new samples. These were analysed together in a dataset spanning 2,000 years.</p>
<p>We used these genomes to explore when people arrived in the region from outside and where they came from. New DNA samples were collected from several iconic Swedish archaeological sites. </p>
<p>These included Sandby borg, which is a “ring fortress” <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antiquity/article/moment-frozen-in-time-evidence-of-a-late-fifthcentury-massacre-at-sandby-borg/5C803B7E77A41439BC3B50D4BF96560E">where a massacre occurred just before 500 AD</a>, and the Vendel cemetery, which features several burials contained in large boats and dating to between the 6th and 8th centuries AD. We also used samples from Viking chamber burials and remains from Kronan, a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1095-9270.1990.tb00276.x">warship that capsized with more than 800 men</a> in 1676.</p>
<p>Two previous studies <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982218308443">noted extensive migration</a> into Scandinavia <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2688-8">during the Viking age</a>. But in our latest study, we have clarified some of the details about this flow of genes into the region.</p>
<p>We found that movements of people from western Europe impacted all of Scandinavia, while migration from the east was more localised, with peaks in the Lake Mälaren Valley and Gotland. Finally, gene flow from southern Europe largely affected the south of Scandinavia. </p>
<p>Since the study was based on a 2,000-year chronology, it was not only possible to see there was an increase in migration during the Viking era, but also that it starts to fall with the onset of the medieval period.</p>
<p>The non-local ancestry that arrives in the region at this time falls away in later periods. Much of the genetic influence from eastern Europe disappears and the western and southern influence becomes significantly diluted. The best way to explain this is that people who arrived in Scandinavia during Viking times did not have as many children as the people who were already living there.</p>
<p>There are different possible reasons for this. The migrants could have belonged to groups that did not intend to settle down in Scandinavia, instead aiming to return to where they came from. Tradespeople and diplomats are examples in this category. Additionally, the migrants could also have belonged to groups that were not allowed to have families or children, such as slaves and priests.</p>
<p>We also looked at influences that began at earlier periods in time. For example, the DNA of modern Scandinavians <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41431-021-00899-6">changes gradually as you travel from north to south</a>. This genetic “cline”, or gradient, is due to migrations into the region of people carrying shared genetic similarities known as the Uralic component.</p>
<p>Modern examples of where the Uralic genetic component can be found are among Sami people, people in modern Finland, some Native Americans and some central Asian groups. </p>
<p>In our dataset, we found occasional instances of people with Uralic ancestry – mainly in northern Scandinavia – during the Viking period and medieval times. But the Uralic influence seems to increase after this time, since individuals from our 17th century sample have similar levels of this ancestry to people living today.</p>
<p>There were many other fascinating stories from our study. For example, at the Viking age burial site of Sala, by the river Sagån, we find a woman that seems to be fully British or Irish in her genomic composition. This woman was buried in a prestigious Viking period boat burial. We don’t know exactly what position she held in society, but she would not have been a slave or a priest. </p>
<p>Among the individuals found on the wreck of the Kronan, there were two people who came from what is now Finland and another who has a genetic affinity with people from the Baltic states, such as Lithuania and Latvia (though this identification is not conclusive). At the time of the Kronan incident in 1676, these areas were part of the Swedish Empire, though they are independent today.</p>
<p>The work sheds more light on the historical events that shaped the populations of Scandinavia over time. The Viking age was marked by Scandinavians’ curiosity of the world outside their home region. But, from our results, it also appears that the world outside this region was curious enough about the Vikings to travel to Scandinavia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anders Götherström receives funding from VR, KVA, and EU. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ricardo Rodriguez Varela does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>DNA analysis reveals a large migration of people into Scandinavia during Viking times.Anders Götherström, Professor in Molecular Archaeology, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Stockholm UniversityRicardo Rodriguez Varela, Research in Molecular Archaeology, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1955222022-12-06T13:34:10Z2022-12-06T13:34:10ZHow to deal with holiday stress, Danish-style<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498797/original/file-20221204-26-kjoo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C12%2C4035%2C2702&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With so many competing demands during the holidays, it's easy to take on more than you can handle.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/overwhelmed-santa-royalty-free-image/175392894?phrase=christmas stress&adppopup=true">mphillips007/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The holidays often involve jubilant gift exchanges, renewed connections with family and friends, and treasured traditions. </p>
<p>But the love and cheer can also <a href="https://www.psychiatry.org/File%20Library/Unassigned/APA_Holiday-Stress_PPT-REPORT_November-2021_update.pdf">be accompanied by a host of stressors</a> – chaotic travel, conflicts over COVID-19 preventive measures, difficult dinner conversations with relatives, and worries about affording and finding holiday gifts. </p>
<p>This stress <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037//0278-6133.17.1.17">can worsen</a> your mental and physical health. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1161/01.cir.0000151424.02045.f7">Research even finds</a> that mortality is higher than normal during the holidays. </p>
<p>How can you best find a balance during the holidays so that you are fulfilled instead of frazzled?</p>
<p>Perhaps you can find balance by taking a few cultural cues from the Danes.</p>
<p>Denmark, despite its winters that can be <a href="https://seasonsyear.com/Denmark">cold and gloomy</a>, is full of people <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/">who consistently rank among the happiest</a> in the world.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://blogs.dickinson.edu/helwegm/">native Dane and a psychologist</a>, I’ll often point to Danish words that can cultivate well-being. These words can be used at any time of the year, but I think a couple are particularly useful for navigating the stress of the holidays.</p>
<h2>Going above and beyond</h2>
<p>Understanding the Danish word “overskud” can help you find more balance during a period of joy and competing commitments.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.thelocal.dk/20220516/danish-word-of-the-day-overskud/">Overskud</a>” is a noun that roughly means “excess.” In an economic context it means profit, but in everyday speech it’s used to refer to having the energy, willingness or resources to tackle a task or a problem. </p>
<p>Having overskud is generally viewed as a good thing – you might go the extra mile at work, plan an elaborate holiday party, find extra thoughtful presents or volunteer at your child’s school. </p>
<p>Danes sometimes combine the noun with other nouns so that you might say that you can make an “overskuds-breakfast” – a fancy breakfast of omelettes, bacon, coffee and french toast. Or you might be an overskuds-dad – the dad who decorates cookies with his kids and their friends. </p>
<p>Although it might seem a bit like bragging to say one has overskud, Danes react to people describing having overskud with authentic applause and support. After all, who wouldn’t want to have extra energy and bandwidth to tackle life?</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://hellebentzen.dk/artikel/kropsterapi/overskud-i-hverdagen/">Danish therapists</a> maintain that having more overskud can lead you to experience more contentment, calm and presence. </p>
<h2>Your energy isn’t boundless</h2>
<p>And yet the holidays can sometimes demand overskud in a number of different areas: Food should be healthy but also fit everyone’s preferences and expectations. Presents should be thoughtful and affordable. Elaborate decorations must come up and go down.</p>
<p>How do you balance it all?</p>
<p>Any psychologist will tell you that maintaining <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/set-boundaries#how-to-define-your-boundaries">healthy boundaries</a> is associated with better mental health. </p>
<p>Importantly, the word overskud is also used to clearly communicate when people cannot tackle an event, task or obligation. </p>
<p>Instead of saying “I’m swamped,” a Dane might say they don’t have enough “overskud” to go to a party or meet for a glass of <a href="https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/christmas-recipes/gloegg">gløgg</a>, a mulled Christmas wine. It’s basically a shorthand way to say, in a nonjudgmental way, that something sounds like fun, and you would love to do it, but you simply don’t have the energy.</p>
<p>Danes also use a verb that’s related to overskud, which is a noun. They will say that they cannot “overskue” something – organizing a family holiday event, planning a trip or deep-cleaning the house.</p>
<p>Often, activities that are meant to be fun and invigorating, like going to a holiday party on a weeknight or buying presents for a fundraiser, still require a fair amount of effort. If your store of energy is empty and you’d rather just stay home in your PJs, you might say “I just cannot overskue doing it.”</p>
<p>Essentially, the Danes use the words overskud and overskue to say, “No,” and there’s an unspoken understanding that it’s nothing personal. Saying “no” to some things will give you the time and energy to say “yes” to others, so you can tackle the holidays with vigor and cheer – and be that overskud party planner, cookie decorator or gift giver, should you wish to do so.</p>
<h2>The importance of ‘pyt’</h2>
<p>People might want their vision for the holidays to go off without a hitch. But reality often smacks people in the face: rude strangers, long lines, decoration disasters, out-of-stock toys, piles of dirty dishes, screaming children and resentful relatives.</p>
<p>You can practice letting go of holiday-related frustrations by simply saying the Danish word “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-danish-word-the-world-needs-to-combat-stress-pyt-112216">pyt</a>,” <a href="http://schwa.dk/filer/udtaleordbog_danpass/d_002_2_g_non-v_1316.wav">which is pronounced</a> like “pid.”</p>
<p>Pyt is similar to saying “oh, well” or “stuff happens” and is used to let go of minor frustrations, hassles or mistakes. Danes might say about their own behavior “pyt, I didn’t do a great job wrapping that present.” Or they might say “pyt” when they sense someone else’s disappointment: “pyt, those cookies do look a bit funny, but they’re still delicious.” </p>
<p>Pyt is about accepting that things won’t go exactly as planned, and embracing that fact. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Christmas tree bulb in an anvil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498798/original/file-20221204-55824-8jvbis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498798/original/file-20221204-55824-8jvbis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498798/original/file-20221204-55824-8jvbis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498798/original/file-20221204-55824-8jvbis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498798/original/file-20221204-55824-8jvbis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498798/original/file-20221204-55824-8jvbis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498798/original/file-20221204-55824-8jvbis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Don’t let the pressure of a perfect Christmas make you crack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/christmas-under-pressure-royalty-free-image/157646865?phrase=christmas+stress">alacatr/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Having very high personal standards is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/cou0000036">predictor of</a> poor coping skills and a poor ability to deal with daily stressors. Moreover, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02783193.2017.1393711">stress</a> can be mitigated by accepting imperfection as a healthy and normal part of life. </p>
<p>Another way to get to pyt is to focus on what really counts. Is this long line at the mall really worth ruining your day? Or is it a minor annoyance that will soon be forgotten? </p>
<p>Perhaps you can take a moment while waiting to think about some of the things you’re thankful for or remind yourself that you’re OK. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.10.190">Research shows</a> that self-reflection and self-compassion together are particularly effective in reducing stress. Moreover, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167219853846">self-compassion</a> can lead to acceptance of both your own and other people’s flaws. </p>
<p>One of the benefits of holiday stress – compared to unexpected stress – is that you can anticipate it. </p>
<p>You’ve been here before. If you don’t try to do it all and don’t expect everything to go according to plan, you may just end up having your best holiday yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marie Helweg-Larsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Denmark, despite its cold and gloomy winters, is full of people who consistently rank among the happiest in the world.Marie Helweg-Larsen, Professor of Psychology, the Glenn E. & Mary Line Todd Chair in the Social Sciences, Dickinson CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1931362022-11-02T19:51:34Z2022-11-02T19:51:34ZThe fox in the chicken coop: how the far right is playing the European Parliament<p>Several countries in the European Union are currently governed by far-right political parties. In Hungary, <em>Fidesz</em> under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/">progressively dismantling</a> the country’s constitutional protections of the rule of law and democratic institutions. Poland under its ruling Law and Justice party has shown <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/eu-fines-poland-1-million-per-day-over-judicial-reforms/a-59635269">equally worrying trends</a>. Most recently, Giorgia Meloni and the Brothers of Italy party just won the Italian general elections in September 2022 and have formed a governing coalition with Matteo Salvini’s far-right <em>Lega</em> and Silvio Berlusconi’s <em>Forza Italia</em>. In Sweden, the newly elected minority government depends on support from the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/swedish-parties-agree-coalition-with-backing-of-far-right">far-right Sweden Democrats</a>. </p>
<p>While far-right parties have been present in Europe for some time, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/26/giorgia-meloni-won-big-italy-many-obstacles">liberal democratic parties still do not know how to respond to their presence</a>.</p>
<p>The European Parliament is a suitable place to observe the dilemmas that arise for mainstream politicians regarding the far-right. Particularly when the latter are elected democratically to office and form part of a democratic institution such as a supranational parliament. As the only directly elected body of the European Union (EU), the European Parliament hosts <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/698880/EPRS_BRI(2022)698880_EN.pdf">705 elected members from 206 national political parties</a>. Most of them gather in different political groups according to similar ideologies. The far right spreads widely across different political groups, underlining the degree to which they have become part of the system.</p>
<h2>Right at the core</h2>
<p>In 2015, Marine Le Pen and her <em>Rassemblement National</em> managed to create her own far-right political group and partnered with Matteo Salvini and his <em>Lega</em>. Today they are called the Identity and Democracy (ID) group and form the fifth-biggest political group (out of seven). Other like-minded parties include Germany’s Alternative for Germany, the Freedom Party of Austria, Belgium’s Flemish Interest, and the Danish People’s Party. Although they have been rather passive actors in the European Parliament’s committees, they have influence at the highest level. In the Conference of Presidents, each political group has one vote no matter their size. If bigger groups such as the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats do not reach a consensus, occasionally they may need far-right support to reach a majority.</p>
<p>The Polish Law and Justice party also lead their political group, known as the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). It is the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/erpl-public/hemicycle/index.htm?lang=en&loc=str">fourth-strongest force in the European Parliament</a>, and also the Sweden Democrats, the Brothers of Italy, and Spain’s <em>Vox</em> are part of this group. In contrast, the Hungarian <em>Fidesz</em> was part of the biggest political group, the Christian Democrats (until 2021 known as the European People’s Party, EPP). Orbán was long shielded by powerful politicians such as former German chancellor Angela Merkel and former European Council president Donald Tusk. <em>Fidesz</em> left the EPP in early 2021 when internal pressure over the rule of law concerns in Hungary grew too strong to justify their membership. Today, its members do not belong to any political group in the European Parliament, depriving them of political power and visibility.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492977/original/file-20221102-16-rteo33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492977/original/file-20221102-16-rteo33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492977/original/file-20221102-16-rteo33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492977/original/file-20221102-16-rteo33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492977/original/file-20221102-16-rteo33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492977/original/file-20221102-16-rteo33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492977/original/file-20221102-16-rteo33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seating chart of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France (17 October 2022).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/erpl-public/hemicycle/index.htm?lang=en&loc=str">europarl.europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using their political group status, far-right parties have gained not just visiblity and power, they’ve also reaped <a href="https://eu.boell.org/en/2016/01/14/enf-new-right-wing-force-european-parliament-and-how-deal-it">significant financial benefits</a>. In 2017, Marine Le Pen was accused of hiring <a href="https://euobserver.com/eu-political/136944">“fake assistants”</a>, and in April of this year she and other members of her party were charged with misusing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/17/eu-anti-fraud-body-accuses-marine-le-pen-france-election">620,000 euros of EU funds</a>. In January, Morten Messerschmidt of the Danish People’s Party was convicted of using EU funds for <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/danish-mp-convicted-of-eu-funds-fraud-elected-to-head-far-right-party/">political campaigning</a>. Using European resources, many far-right political parties have thus been able to grow and expand their influence at home while simultaneously attacking the EU project.</p>
<h2>Friends and foes</h2>
<p>The traditional political groups in the European Parliament, including the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens have long had an <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/the-brief-the-costs-of-a-cordon-sanitaire/">informal agreement</a> known as the <em>cordon sanitaire</em> that blocks members of the far right from obtaining key positions in Parliament.</p>
<p>In addition, the Social Democrats and the Greens each adopted internal policies of non-cooperation with the far right. The Social Democrats formally do not cooperate with Marine Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy Group, and while the Greens have a similar policy, it’s a bit looser – members can vote in favour of legislative proposals put forward by the far-right Identity and Democracy group if the content is deemed to be technical in nature. The Greens also leave the definition of who belongs to the far right rather open. Members can choose if they wish to boycott cooperation with certain political parties from other political groups, such as the Law and Justice or Brothers of Italy from the Europe of Conservatives and Reformists group. The <em>cordon sanitaire</em> is thus porous and context-dependent.</p>
<p>In addition, because the Christian Democrats successfully shielded Fidesz from any political pressure, it was long spared from <em>cordon sanitaire</em> measures. This changed in September 2018, when the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-8-2018-0340_EN.html">European Parliament launched a formal sanctions procedure</a>, known as Article 7 TEU, for concerns over Hungary’s democratic backsliding. Even most of the Christian Democrats voted in favour of the resolution thanks to the leadership of Judith Sargentini from the Greens, who led the negotiations at the time. After the EPP changed its internal rules to allow for the expulsion of an entire party, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/epp-suspension-rules-fidesz-european-parliament-viktor-orban-hungary/">Fidesz chose to leave</a> in early 2021.</p>
<p>These examples demonstrate the inherent complexity and ambiguity of the far right in the European Parliament. They also shed light on the circumstances under which mainstream parties – despite their convictions – can choose to <a href="https://www.graduateinstitute.ch/communications/news/european-union-and-far-right-letting-wolf-fold">support the far right</a>.</p>
<h2>Business as usual continues</h2>
<p>Following the victory of the Brothers of Italy at home, not much has changed in the European Parliament. Within the Christian Democrats, there have been <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/call-boot-berlusconi-party-forza-italia-eu-parliament-epp-back-meloni-brothers-italy/">calls to ban <em>Forza Italia</em></a> from the EPP group should they continue to support Meloni, but this has yet to happen. Manfred Weber, head of the EPP, supported <em>Forza Italia</em> during the Italy’s election, and while he was <a href="https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/eu-weber-wegen-wahlkampfhilfe-fuer-berlusconi-in-der-kritik-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-220909-99-693826">strongly criticised</a>, it’s another example of how traditional parties can directly or indirectly support and sustain far-right parties.</p>
<p>There have been speculations about a <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-priorities-2020/news/brothers-of-italy-mep-no-way-for-ecr-and-id-to-merge-in-one-group/">possible merger</a> between Law and Justice’s ECR and Le Pen’s and Salvini’s ID group. The ECR also hosts the Brothers of Italy, while the ID is home to Italy’s <em>Lega</em>. In terms of numerical power, a merger would change the political game in the European Parliament – combined, they would become the third-largest force behind the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. Yet a merger is unlikely to happen given their <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-priorities-2020/news/brothers-of-italy-mep-no-way-for-ecr-and-id-to-merge-in-one-group/">differing stances</a> regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The ECR supports sanctions against Russia, most of the ID has been against them. On one issue the Brothers of Italy and the <em>Lega</em> do agree: both <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/italys-meloni-backs-orban-says-hungary-is-democratic/">voted against</a> a resolution in the European Parliament declaring that Hungary no longer constitutes a democracy.</p>
<p>An additional complication is that the electoral cycle of the European Parliament is not aligned with national elections. Even if Meloni won at the national level, it does not change the numerical representation of the Brothers of Italy in the European Parliament, and the next EU elections do not take place until May 2024. A bigger influence might be felt in the Council, where <em>Fidesz</em> and Law and Justice have been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60400112">successfully blocking</a> several important decisions, such as the EU budget, due to their veto rights.</p>
<p>The far right has become an intrinsic part of EU politics. Of even more concern is their deep political entanglement with liberal democratic political parties, which renders the whole story even more complex.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christin Tonne is an affiliated researcher at the Albert Hirschman Centre On Democracy at the Geneva Graduate Institute (IHEID). The article is based on the research she conducted for her doctoral dissertation. She currently receives funding from the IHEID for a follow-up pilot project on democratic defenses against the far right in the EU institutions.</span></em></p>How political parties such as Fidesz, Brothers of Italy, and the National Rally form part of the European Parliament.Christin Tonne, Research associate at the Albert Hirschman Centre On Democracy, Graduate Institute – Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement (IHEID)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1927702022-10-26T15:08:22Z2022-10-26T15:08:22ZIn France, the tough debate about hunting and alcohol<p>Over the last <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/28/france-three-people-injured-over-weekend-in-latest-hunting-incidents">weekend of November alone</a>, a 26-year-old hiker was shot in the arm while walking in the Alpilles mountains in Provence and a 64-year-old man, in the stomach, in Dordogne. Lead pellets also hit a 58-year old man in Brittany.</p>
<p>The link between these gruesome incidents? They were all caused by careless hunters.</p>
<p>All the more timely, then, is the French Senate’s report released in September, which called for a <a href="http://www.senat.fr/notice-rapport/2021/r21-882-notice.html">ban on alcohol and narcotics while hunting</a> alongside for a spate of <a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/le-senat-propose-un-taux-maximal-d-alcoolemie-pour-la-chasse-20220916">measures</a> similar to those applied to drink-driving. On 25 October, the government released a <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2022/10/25/delit-d-alcoolemie-demi-journees-sans-chasse-les-pistes-envisagees-par-le-gouvernement-pour-ameliorer-et-garantir-la-securite-a-la-chasse_6147294_3244.html">policy roadmap</a> comprising some of these suggestions, including restrictions on drinking. “Hunting involves an arm. Like driving, it is not compatible with a high blood-alcohol concentration,” the secretary of state for ecology, Bérangère Couillard, said. The Elysee is now awaiting to hear feedback from hunting federations with the view to formulating decrees by early 2023 at the latest.</p>
<p>The president of France’s National Hunters’ Federation (FNC), Willy Schraen, has retorted that <a href="https://www.marianne.net/societe/agriculture-et-ruralite/le-velo-bourre-cest-dangereux-aussi-nouvel-argument-du-patron-des-chasseurs-pour-esquiver-le-debat">“a drunk guy on a bike is dangerous, too”</a>, apparently forgetting French drink-driving laws <a href="https://www.securite-routiere.gouv.fr/chacun-son-mode-de-deplacement/dangers-de-la-route-velo/bien-circuler-velo">also apply to cyclists</a>.</p>
<p>The French hunting chief’s remark would not hold water in other countries, where representative organisations advise hunters to abstain from alcohol. Absent an EU-wide legislation on the matter, national legislation in states such as <a href="https://gestiberian.com/2017/01/27/sanciones-por-cazar-con-copas/">Spain</a>, <a href="https://www.rtbf.be/article/ouverture-de-la-chasse-quels-sont-les-droits-et-obligations-des-chasseurs-et-des-promeneurs-11076343">Belgium</a> and <a href="https://www.jagdverband.de/vor-und-waehrend-der-jagd-ist-alkohol-tabu">Germany</a> restrict drinking while in possession of a firearm. Or take, for example, the official website of <a href="https://www.hunter-ed.com/newyork/studyGuide/Alcohol-and-Drugs/20103502_138053/">a US agency for hunting education</a>, which states that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“consuming alcohol before or during the hunt increases the risk of incidents because it impairs coordination, hearing, vision, communication, and judgement”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This may seem like common-sense advice, but alcohol is still integral to the world of hunting, both in France and farther afield.</p>
<h2>Hunting while drunk</h2>
<p>In the United States, where the general population consumes <a href="https://donnees.banquemondiale.org/indicateur/SH.ALC.PCAP.LI?locations=US">20% less</a> alcohol than in France, a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01639625.2019.1631069">recent survey</a> carried out on a representative sample of 2,349 young adults found that 23% of male hunters had at some point hunted while inebriated.</p>
<p>And in France? Although there is an absence of hard data, the Senate report tentatively ventures that a “small minority” of people have hunted while under the influence of alcohol. However, the senators offer more precise statistics regarding deaths and serious accidents in hunting, 9% of which are attributable to a hunter’s state of inebriation.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the report ignores most international data available on the topic, failing to mention that in the US, <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.78.12.158">drunkenness is involved in 15% of hunting accidents</a>. Also overlooked is an extensive Danish study of 1,800 hunters, which revealed the risk of firearm-related accidents <a href="https://journals.lww.com/jtrauma/Abstract/2009/12000/Firearm_Related_Hunting_Accidents_in_Denmark.21.aspx">was directly proportional to the hunters’ alcohol intake</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, the recent Senate report does not clarify how alcohol significantly raises the risk of accidents. But we have managed to pinpoint three contributing effects of inebriation.</p>
<h2>Locomotion and motor coordination</h2>
<p>A study conducted at a Swiss A&E service showed a third of the hunting-related injuries there resulted from falls – for example, <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/emi/2015/284908/">when shooters tumbled from tree-stands</a>. Alcohol is conducive to this type of incident, particularly by interfering with the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcohol.2008.04.004">inner ear and cerebellum</a>, which regulate balance. This has a negative impact on the hunter’s anticipation and motor coordination skills.</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://bmcresnotes.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1756-0500-3-243">research</a> demonstrated that when individuals were instructed to avoid obstacles while walking on a treadmill, their reaction times were significantly longer, even at low levels of alcohol intake.</p>
<h2>Visual and hearing impairment</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.thieme-connect.de/products/ejournals/abstract/10.1055/s-2008-1050922">Alcohol also impairs peripheral vision</a>, thus affecting judgement and accuracy in angles of fire. This is what causes double vision and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03207543">blurred vision</a>, by disturbing the action of muscles that control visual focus. It enhances <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/415330/">glaring</a>, by slowing down the muscles responsible for opening and closing the pupil in response to surrounding light levels.</p>
<p>Over the long term, <a href="https://theconversation.com/alcool-et-autres-substances-pourquoi-leur-dangerosite-est-elle-sous-estimee-par-les-usagers-159369">high alcohol intake</a> alters <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26465148/">colour perception</a> and promotes the emergence of <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34055263/">chronic diseases</a>, such as <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20443769/">cataracts</a>. It can lead to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02713683.2021.1942070">age-related macular degeneration</a> (AMD), a condition characterised by <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-degenerescence-maculaire-est-la-premiere-cause-de-cecite-au-pays-comment-la-prevenir-154683">damage to the central region of the retina</a>.</p>
<p>Alcohol even <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33341812/">deteriorates our hearing</a>. In one study, subjects who had consumed alcohol were found to have significantly poorer hearing abilities compared to those who had not.</p>
<h2>Errors of judgement</h2>
<p>Once the extent of alcohol’s effects on sight and hearing are better understood, the range of stories that pop up in local newspapers – such as the man who ended up <a href="https://www.lyonmag.com/article/90723/beaujolais-le-chasseur-ivre-vise-un-lievre-et-tire-sur-son-ami">riddled with buckshot</a> when his hunting companion mistook him for a hare – become less of a surprise.</p>
<p>According to France’s <a href="https://www.ofb.gouv.fr/la-securite-la-chasse">Biodiversity Agency</a> (OFB), hunting accidents are often the result of carelessness and bad judgement. The OFB reminds hunters that, once fired, the projectiles can reach a distance of up to five kilometres (three miles). When a target is far away or moving, how can a hunter guarantee – drunk or sober – that their bullet doesn’t <a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/auvergne-rhone-alpes/haute-savoie/ouverture-du-proces-du-chasseur-accuse-avoir-tue-vetetiste-haute-savoie-1900586.html">hit a mountain biker</a>, a <a href="https://www.20minutes.fr/faits_divers/2338343-20180918-limoges-fillette-grievement-blessee-chasseur-tirait-faisan">ten-year-old girl playing by the river</a> or a <a href="https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/1143614/article/2022-02-22/femme-de-25-ans-tuee-lors-d-un-accident-de-chasse-ce-qu-sait-sur-ce-drame">young hiker</a> ?</p>
<h2>Drinking makes for riskier decision-making</h2>
<p>The choice of whether to pull the trigger or hold fire is dependent on another dimension. According to the Senate report:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“More than two thirds of accidents result from gross misconduct that contravenes basic safety rules. Moreover, some one hundred incidents per year lead to devastating consequences, whereby shots are fired at vehicles or homes.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Assessing risks and perceiving the consequences of our actions are two processes that are <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33065446/">notoriously affected by inebriation</a>.</p>
<p>A 2015 study demonstrated this effect using a straightforward method, which involved presenting two jars filled with cards to bar patrons, aged 18 to 43. The subjects were told that they could earn a prize if they found a winning card. In the jar on the right, 50% of the cards were winners, whereas the probability of winning was not given for the jar on the left. The results showed that the drunk men (but not the women) <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25642202/">more often chose the riskier option</a>. Could this be likened to the scenario of taking a shot in the dark in the hopes of hitting a target?</p>
<h2>A major factor in human aggression</h2>
<p>By directly affecting the prefrontal cortex, alcohol disturbs <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hup.1194">executive cognitive functions</a>, which are involved in our ability to consider or maintain multiple options simultaneously in order to solve problems, as well as our attention skills, our action inhibition skills, and <a href="https://compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-9004.2007.00051.x">our ability to control aggression</a>. In fact, alcohol is the psychoactive substance most often linked to <a href="https://www.dunod.com/sciences-humaines-et-sociales/drogues-alcool-et-agression-equation-chimique-et-sociale-violence">human aggression on a global scale</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, it’s not alcohol but hunters who have <a href="https://www.ledauphine.com/france-monde/2019/11/17/en-20-ans-les-chasseurs-ont-tue-plus-de-400-personn">shot 400 people dead</a> in the past two decades in France and injured thousands more. (And it should be noted that alcohol is responsible for <a href="https://www.inserm.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021-05/inserm-expertisecollective-alcool2021-synthese.pdf">almost a million deaths</a> in instances not related to hunting).</p>
<p>Given that alcohol has clearly been identified as an avoidable risk factor, however, it seems wise to ban its consumption for those using rifles and shotguns in woodland areas frequented by the public. When consuming alcohol, hunters threaten the lives of others, and their own as well.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Enda Boorman for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en">Fast ForWord</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurent Bègue-Shankland has received funding from the Inter-ministerial Mission for the Fight against Drugs and Addictive Behaviour (MILDECA).</span></em></p>A recent French Senate report calling on a ban on alcohol use while hunting has prompted the wrath of the country’s hunting lobby. Do its arguments hold water?Laurent Bègue-Shankland, Addictologue, Professeur de psychologie sociale, membre de l’Institut universitaire de France (IUF), directeur de la MSH Alpes (CNRS/UGA), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1917842022-10-21T14:45:16Z2022-10-21T14:45:16ZSweden’s new right-leaning government to look at outsourcing prisoners to other countries<p>Sweden has a new government after weeks of political horse-trading following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/swedish-election-what-we-know-so-far-about-the-influence-the-nationalist-right-will-have-in-the-new-government-190789">the election in September</a>. Ulf Kristersson’s Moderates will <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63289903">lead a centre-right coalition</a> with the Christian Democrats and the Liberals. But it will govern with support from the Sweden Democrats, who won a fifth of votes in recent polls.</p>
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<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/swedens-new-right-leaning-government-to-look-at-outsourcing-prisoners-to-other-countries-191784&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Under the leadership of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/12/jimmie-akesson-who-is-the-leader-of-the-far-right-sweden-democrats">Jimmie Åkesson</a>, the Sweden Democrats has managed to move away from its racist and violent image and gained no less than 20.5% of the popular vote. And, as expected given the Sweden Democrats’ policy platform, immigration, law and order and the Swedish penal system are high on the new government’s agenda. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.government.se/speeches/2022/10/statement-of-government-policy/">statement of government policy</a> published on October 18, the “possibility of renting prison places abroad will be investigated”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/swedish-election-what-we-know-so-far-about-the-influence-the-nationalist-right-will-have-in-the-new-government-190789">Swedish election: what we know so far about the influence the nationalist right will have in the new government</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The idea of a country sending its convicted criminals abroad to serve their sentence in jail cells rented form another country sounds remarkable – but it’s neither new nor unique. Nordic countries in particular have taken steps to “farm out” parts of their prison population to serve their sentence in other countries. In 2015, Norway and the Netherlands <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/01/norwegian-inmates-sent-to-dutch-prison-cells-too-full">signed a deal</a> which led to hundreds of prisoners sentenced in Norway to serve their time in a dedicated Dutch prison, PI Norgerhaven. </p>
<p>At the time, ethics of the deal were <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/61/1/41/5892706?login=false">questioned by European scholars</a>, but it suited both countries. For Norway it helped solve the political problem of the country’s notorious prison “waiting list”. The Netherlands, meanwhile, found a new use for its empty prisons after a decade during which the country’s own prison population <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1477370819896220">had fallen steadily</a>.</p>
<p>The Dutch had a <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/261579/increasing-number-of-dutch-nationals-imprisoned-in-belgium">similar deal with Belgium</a> through which some 650 prisoners spent part of their sentence at a prison in the southern city of Tilburg, close to the Belgian border. The prison was closed down in 2016. Now there are rising numbers of Dutch prisoners in Belgian jails. </p>
<p>Earlier this year, the Danish government <a href="https://www.omct.org/en/resources/news-releases/denmark-outsourcing-the-detention-of-foreigners-to-kosovo-sets-a-dangerous-precedent">signed a deal</a> worth €15 million (£13.1 million) a year to farm out 300 prisoners to a dedicated prison in Kosovo to ease capacity issues in the Danish prison system. </p>
<p>This latter deal is different and more disturbing. While Norway and the Netherlands have, at least to a good degree, similar prison cultures, and Belgium and the Netherlands are next door, in this deal between Denmark and Kosovo neither is the case. </p>
<p>While many prisoners from Norway choose to come to the Netherlands for their sentence, this is not the case here either. It would also involve only prisoners set to be deported following their sentence which is also not the case in the Norway deal with the Netherlands.</p>
<p>The World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT) has <a href="https://www.omct.org/en/resources/news-releases/denmark-outsourcing-the-detention-of-foreigners-to-kosovo-sets-a-dangerous-precedent">raised a red flag</a> against the Denmark Kosovo prison deal as it sees it as discriminatory against foreign nationals. It sharply criticised Denmark for carelessly outsourcing its human rights obligations. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.omct.org/en/resources/news-releases/denmark-outsourcing-the-detention-of-foreigners-to-kosovo-sets-a-dangerous-precedent">European Prison Observatory</a>, and the <a href="https://www.omct.org/en/resources/news-releases/denmark-outsourcing-the-detention-of-foreigners-to-kosovo-sets-a-dangerous-precedent">IRTC</a> (International Rehabilition Council for Torture Victims) have voiced similar concerns. But at present the deal does seem set to go ahead.</p>
<h2>Two-faced Sweden</h2>
<p>In 2017, I warned against a dystopian future in which prisoners, in particular foreign national prisoners, could <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/57/1/79/2566678?login=false">become commodified</a> to serve as bodies for transfer, not for their rehabilitation but simply for removal and storage by the lowest bidder. </p>
<p>The Norway prison deal and the Belgian prison deal would not necessarily qualify as such. After all, those prisoners who came from Norway and those who came from Belgium to the Netherlands, were <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/61/1/41/5892706">quite positive</a> about their experience. But the Denmark deal in all likelihood would fall into this removal and storage category.</p>
<p>This leaves Sweden with a choice, should it press ahead with the Sweden Democrats’ plans. It could emulate the Norway prison deal to seek excellent provision elsewhere for some of its prison population. Or, like Denmark, it could engage in a distasteful race to the bottom by renting cheap cells elsewhere for its unwanted foreign national prisoners. </p>
<p>In 2013, sociologist <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1362480612468935?casa_token=4jB33Koq49AAAAAA%3A_gvTgc9lQWkZvlFBqk7wrL8s7eRKw_iJFr4JVqYjmi18mLfKG0_8z48uC0QqHE4HAo7InBsO1A3z">Vanessa Barker</a> identified what she called a “<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1362480612468935?casa_token=4jB33Koq49AAAAAA%3A_gvTgc9lQWkZvlFBqk7wrL8s7eRKw_iJFr4JVqYjmi18mLfKG0_8z48uC0QqHE4HAo7InBsO1A3z">Janus-faced regime</a>” in relation to the Swedish state. That is, extensive and generous for those who “belong” but intrusive and brutal for those who don’t. </p>
<p>There’s a danger that Sweden will seek to set up more radical – perhaps even grotesque – practices of exclusion against certain foreign nationals. Talk of a prison deal of the nature recently hinted at by the people now taking power in Sweden should be seen in this light – and, in my view, condemned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis Pakes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sweden is considering a deal to send foreign prisoners to jails in other countries – but is this just a way of getting rid of unwanted foreign criminals?Francis Pakes, Professor of Criminology, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1900332022-09-13T10:43:04Z2022-09-13T10:43:04ZNet zero: Copenhagen’s failure to meet its 2025 target casts doubt on other major climate plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483989/original/file-20220912-18-o132tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5346%2C3561&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/copenhagen-denmark-may-23-2022-cyclist-2164550851">Michele Ursi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The city of Copenhagen, often celebrated as <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/discovering-hygge-in-copenhagen/worlds-greenest-city/">one of the world’s greenest</a> for its <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycle-lanes-blamed-for-urban-congestion-heres-the-reality-173388">cycling culture</a> and other initiatives, recently <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/copenhagens-dream-of-being-carbon-neutral-by-2025-go-up-in-smoke/">defaulted</a> on its pledge to become carbon-neutral by <a href="https://international.kk.dk/carbon-neutral-capital">2025</a>. This early failure in the global race to net zero emissions (a balance between CO₂ emitted and absorbed) may foreshadow backtracking by other target-setters, indicating that pledges to cease contributing to climate change demand greater scrutiny.</p>
<p>Since 2012, when Copenhagen launched its plan to become the first carbon-neutral city in the world by 2025, the city has enjoyed <a href="https://stateofgreen.com/en/news/copenhagen-recognized-for-climate-leadership/">international recognition</a> and a significant <a href="https://www.visitdenmark.com/press/latest-news/copenhagen-become-carbon-neutral-capital-2025">branding boost</a>. It expects to reduce emissions by <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/copenhagens-dream-of-being-carbon-neutral-by-2025-go-up-in-smoke/">80%</a> by, for instance, switching its power and district heating systems to <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjKi9iew__5AhUNX_EDHTxxAX8QFnoECC4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fkk.sites.itera.dk%2Fapps%2Fkk_pub2%2Fpdf%2F2062_129d045097bb.pdf&usg=AOvVaw239cPtV1e2QhKlp29r_tWX">biomass, wind and solar</a>, renovating buildings to make them <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/apr/12/copenhagen-push-carbon-neutral-2025">energy efficient</a> and improving public transport.</p>
<p>The remaining emissions were supposed to be mopped up by installing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology at the local waste-to-energy plant. This would remove CO₂ from the smokestack before it is emitted to the atmosphere, isolating it for later underground storage.</p>
<p>But at the beginning of August 2022, the semi-public utility <a href="https://a-r-c.dk/arc-soeger-ikke-den-statslige-co2-fangstpulje/">Amager Resource Center</a> (ARC) which manages the plant announced it was ineligible for national CCS funding. This funding, it argued, would otherwise have enabled them to capture CO₂ generated by burning the city’s waste. And so, <a href="https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/koebenhavn-opgiver-droemmen-om-co2-neutral-i-2025">Copenhagen</a> has given up on its pledge.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stepped rows of apartments on a hill with vegetation growing on their roofs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483983/original/file-20220912-5769-n00fbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483983/original/file-20220912-5769-n00fbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483983/original/file-20220912-5769-n00fbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483983/original/file-20220912-5769-n00fbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483983/original/file-20220912-5769-n00fbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483983/original/file-20220912-5769-n00fbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483983/original/file-20220912-5769-n00fbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A housing estate in Copenhagen with green roofs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/copenhagen-denmark-september-22-2019-vm-1515049631">PHG Pictures/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cities such as <a href="https://carbonneutralcities.org/cities/glasgow/">Glasgow</a> and <a href="https://www.myhelsinki.fi/en/think-sustainably/making-helsinki-carbon-neutral">Helsinki</a>, countries like <a href="https://www.government.se/495f60/contentassets/883ae8e123bc4e42aa8d59296ebe0478/the-swedish-climate-policy-framework.pdf">Sweden</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-strategy">UK</a>, and companies including <a href="https://about.ikea.com/en/sustainability/becoming-climate-positive">IKEA</a> and <a href="https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/10/apple-charges-forward-to-2030-carbon-neutral-goal-adding-9-gigawatts-of-clean-power-and-doubling-supplier-commitments/">Apple</a> have made similar <a href="https://zerotracker.net/">pledges</a> to be net zero by 2030, 2045 or 2050. This gives the impression that sufficient measures to address climate change are in the pipeline.</p>
<p>Yet various <a href="https://newclimate.org/sites/default/files/2022-06/CorporateClimateResponsibilityMonitor2022.pdf">reports</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2021.2013155">studies</a> suggest that these pledges often skimp on important details, by failing to include progress reports or specify the emissions they target. Critics have warned that the idea of net zero may only serve to <a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-emissions-targets-are-everywhere-we-need-to-sort-the-genuine-from-the-greenwash-150127">greenwash reputations</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">diminish the urgency</a> around decarbonisation.</p>
<p>Copenhagen is unlikely to be the last to renege on its net zero pledge. The city’s example of relying on immature technology and external funding indicates how similar climate plans might disintegrate in future.</p>
<h2>Faith in technology</h2>
<p>Copenhagen’s experience highlights two problems which could scupper other net zero strategies. First, the city’s reliance on immature technology.</p>
<p>Copenhagen’s plan to reach net zero emissions did not always include CCS. When the city announced its 2025 goal in 2012, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-10-15/denmark-denies-vattenfall-s-vedsted-carbon-capture-application">the Danish parliament</a> had just rejected an application from Swedish energy company Vattenfall to deploy CCS at its coal power plant in northern Jutland. <a href="https://www.ft.dk/samling/20111/almdel/KEB/bilag/16/1031740/index.htm?/samling/20111/almdel/KEB/bilag/16/1031740/index.htm">Danish politicians</a> wanted to monitor experiences with CCS abroad before allowing it in Denmark.</p>
<p>Instead, in 2012 Copenhagen’s net zero plan relied on the <a href="https://kk.sites.itera.dk/apps/kk_pub2/index.asp?mode=detalje&id=930">expectation</a> of reducing the energy-to-waste plant’s emissions by recycling more plastic waste and increasing the ratio of organic waste (since it would count as carbon neutral). But when the third and final road map for Copenhagen’s transition was presented in 2021, it included a shortfall of 430,000 tonnes of CO₂. </p>
<p>Alongside other measures, CCS was – in line with <a href="https://stateofgreen.com/en/solutions/taking-a-large-chunk-out-of-denmarks-co2-emissions-with-ccs/">new national policy</a> – supposed to be installed at the plant to bridge the gap by cutting <a href="https://www.kk.dk/dagsordener-og-referater/%C3%98konomiudvalget/m%C3%B8de-10082021/referat/punkt-21">390,000 tonnes of CO₂</a>. The utility managing the plant suggested the technology could capture up to <a href="https://a-r-c.dk/app/uploads/2021/02/C4-press_release.pdf">500,000 tonnes</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sloped building with two chimneys." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483979/original/file-20220912-12-3i4hdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483979/original/file-20220912-12-3i4hdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483979/original/file-20220912-12-3i4hdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483979/original/file-20220912-12-3i4hdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483979/original/file-20220912-12-3i4hdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483979/original/file-20220912-12-3i4hdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483979/original/file-20220912-12-3i4hdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Amager Bakke plant generates heat and electricity from burning waste.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amager-bakke-hill-slope-copenhill-heat-2189833277">Wirestock Creators/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Copenhagen is not alone in including CCS in its climate strategy. Neighbouring capitals <a href="https://bellona.org/news/ccs/2022-03-oslo-leading-by-example-worlds-first-co2-capture-and-storage-on-waste-incinerator-to-become-reality-in-2026">Oslo</a> and <a href="https://international.stockholm.se/globalassets/rapporter/climate-action-plan-2020-2023_ta.pdf">Stockholm</a> expect to reach net zero with it too. <a href="https://www.regeringen.dk/aktuelt/publikationer-og-aftaletekster/klimaprogram-2021/">Denmark’s national climate strategy</a> expects CCS to cut between 3.5 million tonnes and 8 million tonnes of CO₂ by 2030.</p>
<p>Despite the faith invested in it, carbon capture technology has a poor track record. A new <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/carbon-capture-remains-risky-investment-achieving-decarbonisation">study</a> by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis think tank found that CCS projects tend to underperform on their emission reduction targets. </p>
<p>Dedicated investment in carbon storage technology has been sluggish too. As a result, CCS is largely used to <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/world-cannot-meet-climate-targets-relying-carbon-capture-and-storage/">extend</a> the shelf life of fossil fuels, as captured CO₂ can be injected into oil wells to extract additional oil. These and other issues were <a href="https://www.kk.dk/dagsordener-og-referater/%C3%98konomiudvalget/m%C3%B8de-10082021/referat/punkt-21">reported</a> to municipal leaders in Copenhagen as substantial risks to the 2025 goal.</p>
<h2>Lack of accountability</h2>
<p>The second problem concerns the question of accountability. Who is ultimately responsible for Copenhagen’s failure to meet its net zero target? When the utility ARC first <a href="https://a-r-c.dk/app/uploads/2021/02/C4-press_release.pdf">announced</a> its plan to deploy CCS at its waste-to-energy plant in 2021, it counted on external funding and a supportive policy framework to do so. </p>
<p>Now, the head of the city’s technology and environment committee <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/copenhagens-dream-of-being-carbon-neutral-by-2025-go-up-in-smoke/">criticises</a> national politicians for knowingly setting financial criteria which the utility cannot meet, hindering the city’s road to climate neutrality. And so, the baton of responsibility is passed.</p>
<p>Emissions targets must be based on credible measures which are within the powers of those pledging them. There must be clear ways to assign accountability if those plans fail. When organisations boast of pledges which ultimately depend on the actions of others to succeed, the public is right to question their validity.</p>
<p>Copenhagen’s mayor <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/copenhagens-dream-of-being-carbon-neutral-by-2025-go-up-in-smoke/">suggested</a> the city may still reach climate neutrality in 2026, 2027 or 2028. Yet this case shows how easily net zero plans can fall apart. </p>
<p>It reveals the dangers of the current uncoordinated approach to reaching net zero, in which every organisation is free to set its own eye-catching pledge without fully accounting for its success. What we need is for political and corporate decision-makers to present credible plans for the necessary deep decarbonisation of society.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirstine Lund Christiansen receives funding from the Independent Research Fund Denmark. She is affiliated with the Danish climate movement. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Inge-Merete Hougaard receives funding from FORMAS and the Velux Foundation. She is affiliated with the Danish climate movement. </span></em></p>The Danish capital reneged on its net zero target after an incinerator failed to secure state aid.Kirstine Lund Christiansen, PhD Fellow, Political Ecology, University of CopenhagenInge-Merete Hougaard, Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Ecology, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1854622022-06-22T12:57:18Z2022-06-22T12:57:18ZBorgen is back – what the series gets right (and wrong) about Danish politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470033/original/file-20220621-3417-90u6do.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C50%2C4048%2C2336&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Danish political drama Borgen has returned to screens after a ten year hiatus.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.netflix.com/en/only-on-netflix/81282868/assets/eyJpZCI6ImZrcTJibGNrd2giLCJuYW1lIjoiX0RTQzIzNjMuanBnIn0=">Mike Kollöffel / Netflix</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The political drama Borgen first aired in Denmark in 2010. It soon became clear that its creator, Adam Price, had an uncanny ability to predict and, at times, influence political events in the real Christiansborg Palace, the seat of Danish parliament. Borgen began with centrist politician Birgitte Nyborg becoming Denmark’s first female prime minister. This feat was “repeated” a year later in real life by Social Democrat Helle Thorning-Schmidt. </p>
<p>Airing in the Sunday primetime slot just before the news, it was sometimes difficult to tell fiction from political reporting. Episodes dealt with issues such as <a href="https://cphpost.dk/?p=8936">prostitution</a> or <a href="https://www.bt.dk/danmark/virkeligheden-bag-borgen-saadan-behandler-vi-grise-i-danmark">industrialised pig farming</a> that went on to become hot topics in politics and the press.</p>
<p>Almost ten years after the third series ended, the show is back for a fourth. Borgen: Power & Glory follows a now middle-aged Nyborg, a workaholic and principled minister of foreign affairs in a coalition government led by PM and Labour leader Signe Kragh. Kragh’s flair for down-to-earth Instagram snaps of food and sporting events will remind Danish viewers of the <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CKq0k0YgfBt/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=4ebca6b3-2e1c-46ad-b3ec-fb5012ace4e5">current Social Democrat PM Mette Frederiksen</a>.</p>
<p>Price has maintained some of his predictive ability. In the first episode, Nyborg mentions the sanctioning of a Russian oligarch over the recent invasion of Ukraine. Most likely written with the 2014 annexation of Crimea in mind, viewers should be excused for believing that Borgen is entangled in a geopolitical present. A week after it aired in Denmark, Russia invaded Ukraine.</p>
<p>The new season has one major narrative arc: oil has been discovered in Greenland. The seasoned Nyborg rightly predicts trouble when geopolitical superpowers Russia, China and the US rush to assert themselves in the Arctic. Economic interests threaten to trump her party’s environmental ideals, and the already tense relationship between Greenland and Denmark threatens to erupt in a bitter struggle over political power and profits from oil extraction.</p>
<p>One of Borgen’s strengths lies in its portrayal of the increasingly tense geopolitical reality in the Arctic. Denmark and Greenland are both small players dependent upon larger powers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The ornate main entrance to Christiansborg with two Rococo pavilions on either side, against a pale blue morning sky in Copenhagen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470029/original/file-20220621-19-lguur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470029/original/file-20220621-19-lguur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470029/original/file-20220621-19-lguur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470029/original/file-20220621-19-lguur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470029/original/file-20220621-19-lguur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470029/original/file-20220621-19-lguur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470029/original/file-20220621-19-lguur2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The real ‘Borgen’. How much do the events inside Christiansborg Palace reflect the Danish political drama?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/main-entrance-christiansborg-two-rococo-pavilions-1173561355">kavalenkava / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>It also depicts the unequal impacts of climate change. While colonial powers’ oil extractions have driven climate change for centuries, Indigenous people such as the Greenlandic Inuit are <a href="https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/climate-change-arctic-inuit-reality">witnessing the effects</a> on their vulnerable ecosystems. This reality opens old wounds in the Danish realm that includes the former colonies and current dependencies of Greenland and the Faroe Islands. </p>
<h2>Colonialism continues on screen</h2>
<p>Denmark colonised Greenland in the 18th century, nearly <a href="https://visitgreenland.com/american-interest-in-greenland/">losing the country</a> to the US during the second world war. In 1953, Denmark initiated a <a href="https://nordics.info/show/artikel/podcast-the-danish-decolonisation-of-greenland-1945-54">“decolonisation”</a> of the country by integrating Greenland as an equal part of Denmark. Greenlanders’ desire for independence led to the introduction of home rule in 1979, and 30 years later Greenland achieved <a href="https://english.stm.dk/the-prime-ministers-office/the-unity-of-the-realm/greenland/">self-rule</a>. Today, the Greenlandic people’s right to self-determination is recognised, and most policies, apart from foreign affairs, are decided in Greenland. However, the abuses of colonial rule throughout Greenland’s modern history have led to <a href="https://sciencenordic.com/denmark-greenland-science-special-society/despite-self-governing-inuit-still-suffer-social-and-health-problems/1434945">social problems</a> such as alcoholism, sexual abuse and unemployment becoming endemic.</p>
<p>Borgen has never shied away from showing the darker sides of the colonial relationship between Denmark and Greenland. In the first season, Nyborg meets with Greenland PM Jens Enok to resolve the case of secret US flight landings with terrorist prisoners in Greenland. Enok reminds her that the issue started 300 years ago when Denmark colonised Greenland, and 60 years ago when Denmark forcefully removed the Inuit to make space for the American airbase. Nyborg initially dismisses Danish colonial guilt by suggesting that the Greenlanders are just “sitting around waiting for the ice to thaw so they can strike oil and get rich”. But Enok makes her realise that Denmark has played a substantial role in Greenland’s ongoing suffering.</p>
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<p>In the fourth season, oil is finally struck – and little has changed in Nyborg’s mind. She bullies a Greenlandic delegation, arguing that they cannot be trusted to run their own country. Jens Enok, now a Greenlandic MP, enters again to explain Greenland’s desire to pursue oil extraction. He argues that Greenlanders are the victims of climate change, not its perpetrators. As such, Denmark should not stand in the way of their desire to enrich themselves and achieve full independence. </p>
<h2>Greenlanders choose the environment</h2>
<p>Contrary to the plot of Borgen, today’s Greenlanders prioritise environmentally sustainable development on the road to full independence. In 2021, Greenland’s new government was elected on the promise to <a href="https://overthecircle.com/2021/08/02/turning-off-the-taps-greenland-says-no-to-oil-development-plans/">stop a controversial Uranium</a> and rare-earth mining project in Kuannersuit (Kvanefjeldet) in southern Greenland. The same government also put a stop to further oil exploration for environmental reasons. </p>
<p>It has also become near impossible to stay blind, as Nyborg does, to the colonial abuses perpetrated by the Danish state against Greenlanders. Earlier this year, the Danish PM publicly apologised on behalf of Denmark to 22 Greenlandic <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60646898">“children of the experiment”</a>. They had been taken from their families in the 1950s and sent to Denmark to be trained as a future Greenlandic elite. </p>
<p>In June 2022, the <a href="https://polarjournal.ch/en/2022/05/13/denmark-had-an-involuntary-iud-programme-in-greenland/">abuse of 4,000 Greenlandic women</a> as young as 13 by Danish health authorities, who implanted intrauterine devices without consent in the 1960s and 1970s, was revealed. In response, the Danish and Greenlandic governments have agreed <a href="https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2022/06/09/greenland-denmark-initiate-investigation-into-past-relations/">to set up a commission</a> to shed light on the historical relationship between the two countries.</p>
<p>As Borgen would be the first fictional television series to tell you, there is still a need for courageous politicians to deliver on environmental sustainability – and investigative journalism to hold them to account – and uncomfortable but necessary confrontations with colonial pasts. Borgen provides the drama and stays close to life, but should not be expected to always get its predictions right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jakob Stougaard-Nielsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Danish drama has become popular around the globe.Jakob Stougaard-Nielsen, Professor in Scandinavian and Comparative Literature, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842732022-06-02T18:22:54Z2022-06-02T18:22:54ZUkraine recap: bogged down in the bloody Donbas region<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466659/original/file-20220601-48614-mxke6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5703%2C3608&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/stringer</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s now over 14 weeks since Vladimir Putin sent Russia’s military machine into Ukraine expecting a relatively easy victory. It’s fair to say that the “special military operation” is not panning out the way the Russian president or his planners had envisaged. </p>
<p>The main focus of the fighting continues to be in the Donbas region in the country’s east, where Russian territorial gains are being met with a terrible butcher’s bill on both sides. Portsmouth University’s military strategist, Frank Ledgwidge, says Russia has <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-despite-russias-success-in-donbas-this-is-only-the-end-of-the-beginning-183955">lost more troops</a> killed since February 24 than in ten years of fighting in Afghanistan – implying that well over 40,000 Russian soldiers have been taken out of the game. Ukraine’s casualties, Ledwidge estimates, are also grievous. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-despite-russias-success-in-donbas-this-is-only-the-end-of-the-beginning-183955">Ukraine war: despite Russia's success in Donbas, this is only the end of the beginning</a>
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<p>Ledwidge’s regular analysis has so far proved remarkably prescient: you may remember he predicted on day two of the conflict that Ukraine’s armed forces would put up stiff resistance and rightly that the battle for the Donbas would be protracted and bloody. </p>
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<p>Meanwhile, the first Russian soldier has been convicted in a war crimes trial and sentenced to life imprisonment. Vadim Shishimarin, 21, was sentenced for the killing of a 62-year-old man who was shot in the head in a village in the northeastern Sumy region in the opening days of the war. </p>
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<img alt="Ukraine Recap weekly email newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This is our weekly recap of expert analysis of the Ukraine conflict.</em></strong>
<em>The Conversation, a not-for-profit news group, works with a wide range of academics across its global network to produce evidence-based analysis. Get these recaps in your inbox every Thursday. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+Newsletter+Ukraine+Recap+2022+Mar&utm_content=WeeklyRecapTop">Subscribe here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Legal scholar Robert Goldman of American University in Washington – an expert on the law of war – believes that, while Ukraine is entitled to try the young tank commander for the murder, it may <a href="https://theconversation.com/war-crimes-trial-of-russian-soldier-was-perfectly-legal-but-that-doesnt-make-it-wise-183586">not have been wise to pursue the case</a> while the war still rages and in a civilian court. He also cautions that while Ukraine may well have observed due process of law in presenting the prosecution, not that this precedent has been set, there’s no guaranteeing Russia will be so scrupulous.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/war-crimes-trial-of-russian-soldier-was-perfectly-legal-but-that-doesnt-make-it-wise-183586">War crimes trial of Russian soldier was perfectly legal – but that doesn't make it wise</a>
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<p>Another big item on the news agenda at the moment is the cost of living crisis, and war in Ukraine is exacerbating that considerably. The sharp increase in oil and gas prices, as well as riding food prices and shortage, can all – at least in part – be attributed to Putin’s war. </p>
<p>Birmingham University’s Stefan Wolff and his collaborator Tatyana Malyarenko of the National University of Odesa have taken a detailed look at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-rising-food-prices-are-not-the-only-global-economic-fallout-183577">economic fallout from the conflict</a> and how this is likely to play into global political instability. One largely unforeseen consequence, they write, is the way this is affecting the US relationship with China – which will bear watching in the weeks and months ahead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-rising-food-prices-are-not-the-only-global-economic-fallout-183577">Ukraine war: rising food prices are not the only global economic fallout</a>
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<h2>The diplomatic front</h2>
<p>One aspect of China-US relations in the news this week has involved the US stance on Taiwan. US president Joe Biden appeared to be rewriting America’s policy of “strategic ambiguity”, when he made a recent pledge to the effect that the US would take military action to defend Taiwan if China launched an invasion. Russia’s invasion has, as you’d expect, focused White House minds on the possibility that this might indeed come to pass. </p>
<p>Christoph Bluth and Owen Greene, international relations experts at the University of Bradford, believe that in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the US will face a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ukraine-war-could-boost-tensions-between-us-and-china-over-future-of-taiwan-183745?notice=Article+has+been+updated.">completely different set of challenges</a> to those posed by Putin’s aggression in Ukraine.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ukraine-war-could-boost-tensions-between-us-and-china-over-future-of-taiwan-183745">How Ukraine war could boost tensions between US and China over future of Taiwan</a>
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<p>Closer to home, meanwhile, there has been a spate of intense diplomatic activity sparked by Russia’s aggression. The last Ukraine recap focused on the decision of Finland and Sweden to seek membership of Nato, and this week Owen Greene has taken a closer look at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sweden-a-history-of-neutrality-ends-after-200-years-183583">history of Swedish neutrality</a> since the Napoleonic wars. This stance began to change after Russia annexed the Crimea when the country began to seek closer defence cooperation with its neighbours and, through Nato members Denmark and Norway, with the North Atlantic alliance itself.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/sweden-a-history-of-neutrality-ends-after-200-years-183583">Sweden: a history of neutrality ends after 200 years</a>
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<p>Denmark is also examining its defensive alliances and is voting on whether to end its opt-out from the European Union’s defence policy. It’s a significant move, as the EU has been bolstering its own defensive capabilities of late, so a vote in favour of ending the opt-out – according to Imelda Maher of University College Dublin and Dermot Hodson of Birkbeck, University of London – would <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-denmark-is-voting-on-its-defence-relationship-with-the-eu-and-what-it-says-about-democracy-in-europe-182732">accelerate that growth</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-denmark-is-voting-on-its-defence-relationship-with-the-eu-and-what-it-says-about-democracy-in-europe-182732">Why Denmark is voting on its defence relationship with the EU – and what it says about democracy in Europe</a>
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<h2>Collateral damage</h2>
<p>Just a few months ago, the European Space Agency (Esa) was preparing for the launch of the Rosalind Franklin rover on its trip to Mars, part of the ExoMars mission, a collaboration between Europe and Russia. Russia was to have provided several key components of the mission, including a rocket to launch it on its journey and the radioactive heaters to keep the batteries of the rover warm in the cold Martian nights.</p>
<p>Now, says space scientist Andrew Coates of University College London, Esa will need to <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-mars-rover-mission-was-suspended-because-of-the-ukraine-war-heres-what-were-hoping-for-next-183927">find new partners for the mission</a>. If this turns out to be Nasa, as is widely thought, this will further widen Russia’s rift with the west.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-mars-rover-mission-was-suspended-because-of-the-ukraine-war-heres-what-were-hoping-for-next-183927">Our Mars rover mission was suspended because of the Ukraine war – here's what we're hoping for next</a>
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<p>And finally, while you will have seen Russian and Belarus tennis stars competing in the French Open this week, you won’t be seeing these top players at Wimbledon, which has banned all competitors from the two countries. The likes of men’s world number two Daniil Medvedev, men’s number eight Andrey Rublev, and Belarusian former women’s world number two Aryna Sabalenka have been allowed to play as individuals rather than representing their respective countries. </p>
<p>As Leon Davis of Teeside University and Mike Duignan of the University of Surrey – both experts in event management – observe here, any of these players who openly express support for the Russian invasion <a href="https://theconversation.com/french-open-understanding-why-russian-and-belarusian-tennis-players-are-competing-despite-wimbledon-ban-181823">will face sanctions</a> and many of them have won plaudits for openly opposing the war. But, caution Davis and Duignan, even those Russian and Belarusian players who don’t actually live in their birth country any more are likely to have families there who could be endangered if they are too outspoken against the invasion.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/french-open-understanding-why-russian-and-belarusian-tennis-players-are-competing-despite-wimbledon-ban-181823">French Open: understanding why Russian and Belarusian tennis players are competing despite Wimbledon ban</a>
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<p><em>Ukraine Recap is available as a weekly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+Newsletter+Ukraine+Recap+2022+Mar&utm_content=WeeklyRecapBottom">Click here to get our recaps directly in your inbox.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A digest of the week’s coverage of the war against Ukraine.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1827322022-05-26T10:47:28Z2022-05-26T10:47:28ZWhy Denmark is voting on its defence relationship with the EU – and what it says about democracy in Europe<p>On June 1, voters in Denmark will take part in a referendum on whether to end the country’s opt-out from EU defence policy, which prohibits Denmark from participating in EU defence matters. This means that when the EU deploys personnel under its <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/common-security-and-defence-policy_en">common security and defence policy</a>, Denmark <a href="https://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/3400436/European_defence_cooperation_and_the_Danish_defence_opt_out_diis_april_2020.pdf">participates</a> in civilian but not military operations. </p>
<p>This was one of <a href="https://www.thedanishparliament.dk/en/eu-information-centre/the-danish-opt-outs-from-eu-cooperation">four arrangements</a> secured when Danes voted “no” to the 1992 Maastricht treaty to establish the EU. Along with defence policy, Denmark opted out of the euro, justice and home affairs. The European Council also agreed to a Danish <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:41992X1231&rid=1">declaration</a> that EU citizenship could only ever complement national citizenship – not replace it. These four arrangements for Denmark persuaded voters to support the Maastricht treaty in a second referendum in 1993. </p>
<p>The citizenship arrangement later became the norm for all member states through the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/treaty/pdf/amst-en.pdf">1997 Amsterdam treaty</a>, which ratified that EU citizenship is supplementary to citizenship of a member state and cannot replace it.</p>
<p>The decision to hold a vote on the defence opt-out reveals a deeper shift in EU constitutional politics. Faced with contentious issues, governments are increasingly turning to single-issue referendums.</p>
<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed the security situation in Europe in a heartbeat. Finland and Sweden previously opted to remain outside Nato but have <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-sweden-and-finland-eye-the-nato-option-but-its-a-security-dilemma-for-the-west-181354">now submitted applications</a>. Denmark, a founding member of Nato, is now forced to rethink its foreign policy, including its arm’s-length relationship with the EU.</p>
<p>Faced with a war on its eastern border, and the arrival of <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine">more than four million Ukrainian refugees</a>, the EU has agreed to supply <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/729301/EPRS_ATA(2022)729301_EN.pdf">lethal weapons to Ukraine</a> – the <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/02/28/eu-adopts-new-set-of-measures-to-respond-to-russia-s-military-aggression-against-ukraine/">first time</a> it has done so for any country. EU member states also agreed to commit up to <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-rapid-deployment-capacity_en#:%7E:text=To%20that%20end%2C%20the%20EU,EU's%20broad%20crisis%20management%20toolbox.">5,000 troops</a> to a new rapid reaction force, and to engage in live exercises on land and sea. This is part of a <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/03/21/a-strategic-compass-for-a-stronger-eu-security-and-defence-in-the-next-decade/">new strategy</a> to make the EU a stronger military actor. </p>
<p>Denmark cannot participate in such efforts, potentially leaving it more vulnerable to external threats than most EU member states. The EU’s <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/sede/dv/sede200612mutualdefsolidarityclauses_/sede200612mutualdefsolidarityclauses_en.pdf">mutual defence clause</a> guarantees aid and assistance from other member states when one is subject to aggression. It <a href="https://ecfr.eu/wp-content/uploads/Ambiguous-alliance-Neutrality-opt-outs-and-European-defence.pdf">remains unclear</a> the extent to which Denmark can invoke or benefit from that provision, given its special status. </p>
<p>A coalition of four Danish political parties proposed the referendum in March, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/denmark-to-hold-referendum-eu-defence-opt-out">calling on Danes</a> to reverse the opt-out. If the Danish people vote to remove the opt-out, Denmark will be able to fully participate in EU military operations and cooperate on the growth of EU military capabilities, while also growing its own military budget. If the people vote no, Denmark will remain outside EU defence policy, which will continue to develop without it.</p>
<h2>Single issue referendums</h2>
<p>In the past, national governments primarily looked to national parliaments to approve changes to their countries’ relationship with the EU. But persistent problems of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_1867">public trust in both governments and parliaments</a> make it difficult for these institutions alone to give their consent to EU policies and questions of European integration. </p>
<p>Since 1972, nearly 50 referendums have been held on issues relating to the EU, the most common being treaty revision or a decision to join the EU. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2022.2032286">Our research</a> shows the growing importance of single-issue referendums focused on specific policies or questions about European integration. Member states are rarely obliged to hold single-issue referendums. They choose to do so when the way they usually engage with the EU is under strain. Examples include Greece’s 2015 referendum on negotiations with the EU and International Monetary Fund, Hungary’s 2016 referendum on the relocation of refugees and the UK’s 2016 vote to leave the EU. </p>
<p>After Denmark secured its four opt-outs from elements of the Maastricht treaty, the political consensus was that a referendum would be required to opt into any of these areas. This was not a legal but a political requirement – and it established single-issue referendums as integral to how Denmark participates in the EU.</p>
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<img alt="An EU flag and the flag of Denmark flying side by side against a blue sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464762/original/file-20220523-26-xrglrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464762/original/file-20220523-26-xrglrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464762/original/file-20220523-26-xrglrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464762/original/file-20220523-26-xrglrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464762/original/file-20220523-26-xrglrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464762/original/file-20220523-26-xrglrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464762/original/file-20220523-26-xrglrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In the June 1 referendum, Danish voters will decide on whether to change the country’s defence relationship with the EU.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/european-union-eu-danish-flag-denmark-1086053966">oleschwander / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>So far, two opt-in referendums have been held in Denmark, but have not resulted in change. In 2000, voters rejected joining the euro despite widespread support from political parties and <a href="https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/article/2000/denmark-votes-no-to-the-euro">trade union leaders</a>.</p>
<p>In 2015, a referendum on ending the country’s <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012E%2FPRO%2F22">opt-out</a> from <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12008E067">EU justice and home affairs</a> also ended in defeat. </p>
<h2>Voting against the government</h2>
<p>Denmark is no isolated case. Of the six single-issue EU referendums called by governments since 2000, four went against the preferences of the government. And Hungary’s controversial refugee relocation referendum resulted in the “no” vote that the government sought, but failed to secure the required turnout. Greece’s government won a “no” vote against the terms of financial assistance from its international creditors, but this made little practical difference to negotiations. </p>
<p>This makes Denmark’s upcoming referendum politically fraught, with polls giving the “yes” side an <a href="https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/trods-klodset-start-paa-kampagnen-fastholder-ja-siden-sin-foering-i-afstemningen-om-forsvarsforbeholdet">unconvincing lead</a>, given the large share of undecideds. The fact that four political parties have proposed the referendum means it will not simply be a vote on the popularity of the government. It will also be on the single issue of whether voters think the security situation has changed enough to allow “more EU” in Denmark.</p>
<p>The Danish government has already <a href="https://www.thelocal.dk/20220411/danish-government-promises-new-referendum-in-event-of-supranational-eu-army/">promised</a> that should the EU seek to establish a supranational army, there would be yet another referendum to decide whether Denmark would participate. Whatever the result, single-issue referendums will remain a feature of EU constitutional politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>EU member states are increasingly turning towards single-issue referendums to decide major constitutional issues.Imelda Maher, Dean of Law and Sutherland Full Professor of European Law, University College DublinDermot Hodson, Professor of Political Economy, Birkbeck, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1821352022-05-05T18:00:24Z2022-05-05T18:00:24ZHow treaties protecting fossil fuel investors could jeopardize global efforts to save the climate – and cost countries billions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461418/original/file-20220504-16-lkr3zr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5082%2C3520&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The threat of expensive payouts may already be having an effect.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/foot-sections-of-pipeline-which-will-carry-oil-from-the-news-photo/52832800?adppopup=true">Tom Stoddart/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fossil fuel companies have access to an obscure legal tool that could jeopardize worldwide efforts to protect the climate, and they’re starting to use it. The result could cost countries that press ahead with those efforts billions of dollars.</p>
<p>Over the past 50 years, countries have signed <a href="https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/iia-mapping">thousands of treaties</a> that protect foreign investors from government actions. These treaties are like contracts between national governments, meant to entice investors to bring in projects with the promise of local jobs and access to new technologies.</p>
<p>But now, as countries try to phase out fossil fuels to slow climate change, these agreements could leave the public facing overwhelming legal and financial risks.</p>
<p>The treaties allow investors to sue governments for compensation in a process called <a href="https://www.iisd.org/itn/en/2014/08/11/aron-broches-and-the-withdrawal-of-unilateral-offers-of-consent-to-investor-state-arbitration/">investor-state dispute settlement</a>, or ISDS. In short, investors could use ISDS clauses to demand compensation in response to government actions to limit fossil fuels, such as canceling pipelines and denying drilling permits. For example, TC Energy, a Canadian company, is currently seeking <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/tc-energy-seeks-nafta-damages-over-canceled-keystone-xl-project-2021-11-23/">more than US$15 billion</a> over U.S. President Joe Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline.</p>
<p>In a study published May 5, 2022, in the journal Science, we estimate that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo4637">countries would face up to $340 billion</a> in legal and financial risks for canceling fossil fuel projects that are subject to treaties with ISDS clauses. </p>
<p>That’s more than countries worldwide put into climate adaptation and mitigation measures combined in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/tc-energy-seeks-nafta-damages-over-canceled-keystone-xl-project-2021-11-23/">fiscal year 2019</a>, and it doesn’t include the risks of phasing out coal investments or canceling fossil fuel infrastructure projects, like pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals. It means that money countries might otherwise spend to build a low-carbon future could instead go to the very industries that have <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-big-oil-knew-about-climate-change-in-its-own-words-170642">knowingly been fueling climate change</a>, severely jeopardizing countries’ capacity to propel the green energy transition forward.</p>
<h2>Massive potential payouts</h2>
<p>Of the world’s 55,206 upstream oil and gas projects that are in the early stages of development, we identified 10,506 projects – 19% of the total – that were protected by 334 treaties providing access to ISDS. </p>
<p>That number could be much higher. We could only identify the headquarters of project owners, not the overall corporate structures of the investments, due to limited data. We also know that <a href="https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2022/02/climate-change-and-investorstate-dispute-settlement">law firms are advising clients in the industry</a> to structure investments to ensure access to ISDS, through processes such as using subsidiaries in countries with treaty protections. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps showing where these treaties are used." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461313/original/file-20220504-16-x863of.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo4637">K. Franklin/Science based on K. Tienhaara et al.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Depending upon future oil and gas prices, we found that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo4637">total net present value of those projects</a> is expected to reach $60 billion to $234 billion. If countries cancel these protected projects, foreign investors could sue for financial compensation in line with these valuations. </p>
<p>Doing so would put several low- and middle-income countries at severe risk. Mozambique, Guyana and Venezuela could each face over $20 billion in potential losses from ISDS claims.</p>
<p>If countries also cancel oil and gas projects that are further along in development but are not yet producing, they face more risk. We found that 12% of those projects worldwide are protected by investment treaties, and their investors could sue for $32 billion to $106 billion. </p>
<p>Canceling approved projects <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo4637">could prove exceptionally risky</a> for countries like Kazakhstan, which could lose $6 billion to $18 billion, and Indonesia, with $3 billion to $4 billion at risk.</p>
<p>Canceling coal investments or fossil fuel infrastructure projects, like pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals, could lead to even more claims.</p>
<h2>Countries already feel regulatory chill</h2>
<p>There have been <a href="https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-01/investor%E2%80%93state-disputes-fossil-fuel-industry.pdf">at least 231 ISDS cases</a> involving fossil fuels so far. Just the threat of massive payouts to investors could cause many countries to delay climate mitigation policies, causing a so-called “regulatory chill.” </p>
<p>Both <a href="https://capitalmonitor.ai/institution/government/cop26-ambitions-at-risk-from-energy-charter-treaty-lawsuits/https:/capitalmonitor.ai/institution/government/cop26-ambitions-at-risk-from-energy-charter-treaty-lawsuits/">Denmark and New Zealand</a>, for example, seem to have designed their fossil fuel phaseout plans specifically to minimize their exposure to ISDS. <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/opinion/energy-charter-conference-a-ministerial-without-ministers/">Some</a> climate policy <a href="https://www.ibanet.org/Climate-crisis-Impact-of-Energy-Charter-Treaty-on-clean-energy-transition-raises-concern">experts</a> have suggested that Denmark may have chosen 2050 as the end date for oil and gas extraction to avoid disputes with existing exploration license holders.</p>
<p>New Zealand banned all new offshore oil exploration in 2018 but did not cancel any existing contracts. The climate minister acknowledged that a more aggressive plan <a href="https://capitalmonitor.ai/institution/government/cop26-ambitions-at-risk-from-energy-charter-treaty-lawsuits/">“would have run afoul of investor-state settlements.”</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2021.100118">France revised a draft law</a> banning fossil fuel extraction by 2040 and allowing the renewal of oil exploitation permits after the <a href="https://www.vermilionenergy.com/our-operations/europe/france.cfm">Canadian company Vermilion</a> threatened to launch an ISDS case.</p>
<h2>Securing the green energy transition</h2>
<p>While these findings are alarming, countries have options to avoid onerous legal and financial risks. </p>
<p>The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is <a href="https://www.oecd.org/investment/investment-policy/investment-treaties.htm">currently discussing proposals</a> on the future of investment treaties.</p>
<p>A straightforward approach would be for countries to terminate or withdraw from these treaties. Some officials have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12355">expressed concern</a> about unforeseen impacts of unilaterally terminating investment treaties, but other countries have already done so, <a href="https://www.citizen.org/wp-content/uploads/pgcw_fdi-inflows-from-bit-termination_finaldraft.pdf">with few or no real economic consequences</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OluZrHWzyx8?wmode=transparent&start=5" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>For more complex trade agreements, countries can negotiate to remove ISDS provisions, as the United States and Canada <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/usmca-impact-north-american-trade">did when they replaced</a> the North American Free Trade Agreement with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.</p>
<p>Additional challenges stem from “sunset clauses” that bind countries for a decade or more after they have withdrawn from some treaties. Such is the case for Italy, which <a href="https://borderlex.net/2022/04/25/ect-negotiations-members-eye-june-deal-announcement/">withdrew from the Energy Charter Treaty</a> in 2016. It is <a href="https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/17/14">currently stuck</a> in an ongoing ISDS case initiated by the U.K. company Rockhopper over a ban on coastal oil drilling. </p>
<p>The Energy Charter Treaty, a special investment agreement covering the energy sector, emerged as the greatest single contributor to global ISDS risks in our dataset. Many European countries are <a href="https://borderlex.net/2022/04/25/ect-negotiations-members-eye-june-deal-announcement/">currently considering</a> whether to leave the treaty and how to avoid the same fate as Italy. If all country parties to a treaty can <a href="https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1153&context=sustainable_investment_staffpubs">agree together to withdraw</a>, they could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/icsidreview/sit051">collectively sidestep</a> the sunset clause through mutual agreement. </p>
<h2>The global transition</h2>
<p>Combating climate change is not cheap. Actions <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">by governments</a> and the private sector are <a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/the-cost-of-capital-in-clean-energy-transitions">both needed</a> to slow global warming and keep it <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">from fueling increasingly devastating disasters</a>.</p>
<p>In the end, the question is who will pay – and be paid – in the global energy transition. We believe that, at the very least, it would be counterproductive to divert critical public finance from essential mitigation and adaptation efforts to the pockets of fossil fuel industry investors whose products caused the problem in the first place.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Thrasher receives funding from Open Society Foundations and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyla Tienhaara receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs Program (Government of Canada). She provides pro bono advice for a number of non-profit organizations working on climate and investment issues. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blake Alexander Simmons does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study adds up the potential legal and financial risk countries could face from hundreds of agreements, like those under the Energy Charter Treaty.Rachel Thrasher, Law Lecturer and Researcher at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, Boston UniversityBlake Alexander Simmons, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State UniversityKyla Tienhaara, Canada Research Chair in Economy and Environment, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1814672022-04-20T12:17:00Z2022-04-20T12:17:00ZWhy freezing the Arctic Council is bad news for global security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458671/original/file-20220419-11-9cudmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C143%2C2249%2C1390&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eight countries with territory in the Arctic make up the Arctic Council.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/xArWvGrQUG4">Mike Swigunski/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the past quarter-century, the Arctic has been a unique <a href="https://arctic-council.org/news/reflections-on-the-past-and-future-of-the-arctic-council/">zone of cooperation</a> among the eight countries of the high north: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the United States. Even when relations between Moscow and the West soured, the <a href="https://arctic-council.org/">Arctic Council</a>’s work was a reminder that multilateral partnerships could thrive despite global discord.</p>
<p>The point of the Arctic Council is to foster collaboration in areas such as scientific research, search and rescue operations and the challenges posed by climate change. Under its auspices, friends and adversaries alike – as well as nonstate actors, such as Indigenous groups – can sit down, talk and find common ground. In early 2022, lawmakers from Norway <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/arctic-council-nominated-nobel-peace-prize">nominated the council</a> for the Nobel Peace Prize for its collaborative spirit.</p>
<p>That collaboration ended shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. One week after the start of the war, seven of the eight Arctic Council members announced that they would “<a href="https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-arctic-council-cooperation-following-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/">pause” their work</a> with the organization. Russia, which holds the council’s presidency through 2023, was left ostracized.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map centered on the North pole showing the Arctic Circle and the countries with Arctic territory." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458460/original/file-20220418-1583-yxwwni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of the Arctic shows sea routes and the eight Arctic countries. Greenland and the Faroe Islands are part of the Kingdom of Denmark.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shipping_routes#/media/File:Map_of_the_Arctic_region_showing_the_Northeast_Passage,_the_Northern_Sea_Route_and_Northwest_Passage,_and_bathymetry.png">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The freeze of the Arctic Council is a loss on many fronts. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1flW-MIAAAAJ&hl=enhttps://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1flW-MIAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of</a> <a href="https://polisci.colostate.edu/gabriella-gricius/">Arctic security</a>, I see cooperation in the region as essential to global security, and I believe an expanded set of institutions is needed to reflect new global realities as the Arctic warms.</p>
<h2>Security and cooperation in the Arctic</h2>
<p>The eight Arctic countries formed the Arctic Council in 1996. While the council <a href="https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/handle/11374/85">explicitly steers clear of military issues</a>, its members are stewards of the Arctic region. Unsurprisingly, the organization has grown in importance with <a href="https://acia.amap.no/">global warming</a>. </p>
<p>Warmer temperatures and <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/">declining sea ice</a> are opening <a href="https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/geopolitical-implications-arctic-shipping-lanes/">new shipping routes</a> and, likely, expanding opportunities to exploit <a href="https://nordregio.org/maps/resources-in-the-arctic-2019/">oil, gas and other critical minerals</a> – changes that <a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/why-does-russia-want-to-resume-military-dialogue-in-the-arctic/">could spur conflict</a> if not handled carefully.</p>
<p>Through the council, the Arctic states have made agreements related to <a href="https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/handle/11374/531">search and rescue</a> operations, <a href="https://arctic-council.org/news/ratification-completed-for-agreement-on-oil-pollution-preparedness-and-response/">oil pollution</a> and <a href="https://arctic-council.org/news/scientific-cooperation-agreement-enters-into-force/">scientific collaboration</a>. The council has tracked environmental changes in the region with its yearly Arctic <a href="https://acia.amap.no/">Climate Impact Assessment reports</a>. Even when relations between East and West were <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/">at their worst</a>, including in 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, joint endeavors in the Arctic remained strong.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Six people sitting around a table. Blinken and Lavrov are making eye contact from opposite sides of the table. The U.S. and Russian flags are in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458712/original/file-20220419-13-rv7r0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, right, on the sidelines of an Arctic Council meeting in 2021 in Iceland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IcelandUnitedStatesRussia/c5c3ca054c8c4bb18ed833fd74532fe0/photo?Query=21139779948765&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1&currentItemNo=0">Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pausing the work of the Arctic Council was an understandable <a href="https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-arctic-council-cooperation-following-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/">response</a> to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet in doing so, the other Arctic countries lost a valuable line of communication with Moscow. In time, it will be important to resume the council or establish a new institution in its place.</p>
<p>Indeed, working with Russia in the Arctic is even more important now than it was before the invasion. From a global security perspective, it is essential that the hot war in Europe be prevented from spilling over into the Arctic and one of the world’s last wildernesses.</p>
<h2>The case for engaging Russia</h2>
<p>Consider, for example, that while tensions are at an all-time high in Ukraine, it might be easy to <a href="https://livableworld.org/the-close-calls-how-false-alarms-triggered-fears-of-nuclear-war/">mistake a flock of geese</a> or a meteor shower for a military attack. Having a way for errors like these to be quickly remedied will be important in this new era of geopolitical competition.</p>
<p>Preserving and enhancing cooperation in the Arctic will take bold leadership. Some critics argue that institutionalizing military dialogue with Russia in the Arctic is an improper response to wanton aggression in Eastern Europe and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/01/31/lessons-from-ukraine-for-the-arctic-russian-dialogue-isnt-always-what-it-seems/">could be seen as legitimizing Russia’s actions</a>. These are valid concerns.</p>
<p>However, giving up on cooperation would be a mistake. The whole world will benefit if the high north can avoid the <a href="https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/the-history-and-future-of-arctic-state-conflict-the-arctic-institute-conflict-series">fate of militarization</a>, a costly arms race and the terrible specter of war.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A servicemember in military coat and hat stands with military ships behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458713/original/file-20220419-14894-fbrcod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russia’s North Atlantic fleet has a base at Severomorsk, not far from Russia’s borders with Norway and Finland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-shows-warships-at-the-russian-northern-fleets-arctic-news-photo/1232870065">Maxime Popov/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ideally, engaging Russia within an expanded set of regional institutions – an invigorated Arctic Council, to be sure, but also a new military forum – would precipitate a <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Meeting_China_Halfway/f_x0DwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=%22cooperation%20spiral%22&pg=PA12&printsec=frontcover&bsq=%22cooperation%20spiral%22">cooperation spiral</a>, increasing cooperation that could help lessen tensions elsewhere. Even if collaboration were confined to the Arctic, this would <a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/03/putins-actions-in-ukraine-are-spilling-north.html">boost</a> global security.</p>
<h2>A new Arctic?</h2>
<p>In the past, the Arctic states sought to maintain peace and stability in their region by divorcing contentious military issues from areas where common ground was easier to find. This has been the <a href="https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/bitstream/handle/11374/85/EDOCS-1752-v2-ACMMCA00_Ottawa_1996_Founding_Declaration.PDF">modus vivendi of the Arctic Council</a> since its founding.</p>
<p>Going forward, it would be better to recognize that robust and ongoing cooperation is needed on security issues, too. Trust between Russia and the West might never return, but cooperation in the Arctic cannot be allowed to disappear with it.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriella Gricius does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Arctic Council was the world’s primary forum for cooperation among the eight Arctic nations and a channel for diplomacy – until Russia launched a war.Gabriella Gricius, Graduate Fellow with North American and Arctic Defense Security Network, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1687722021-10-13T13:32:57Z2021-10-13T13:32:57ZMental health declined during the pandemic but some people with depression improved – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426206/original/file-20211013-25-1akpeae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=557%2C172%2C4749%2C3223&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/30yearold-woman-walks-alone-street-wearing-1759669661">a35mmporhora/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Depression and anxiety disorders increased by over a quarter globally in 2020, according to a recent <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02143-7/fulltext">review</a> of 48 scientific papers. But although there’s been an obvious negative trend during the pandemic, deteriorating mental health hasn’t been <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00787-020-01578-5">inevitable</a>, and people haven’t been <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34518922/">affected equally</a>.</p>
<p>In our recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022395621005756">study</a>, we found that there’s variation in how the pandemic has affected mental health, and that for some, mental wellbeing actually increased under COVID.</p>
<p>We surveyed a nationally representative sample of around 4,200 Danish people in the autumn of 2020. Importantly, these people had already taken part in a population survey in the autumn of 2019, so we could compare their responses half a year into the pandemic with how they reported feeling just before it started.</p>
<p>For most, their mental health declined. The average score participants gave their mental wellbeing fell from 25.5 to 24.6 (on a scale ranging from seven to 35). At the same time, the proportion of people reporting low levels of mental wellbeing (indicative of poor mental health) increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 20.1% in 2020. The decreases in mental wellbeing were similar across the sexes and age groups.</p>
<p>But surprisingly, we saw no decrease in mental wellbeing among people with longstanding physical or mental illnesses, nor people living with depression prior to the pandemic. In fact, for people who had depression beforehand, we saw an increase in average mental wellbeing, from 18.7 to 19.6.</p>
<h2>What influenced these changes?</h2>
<p>Various factors probably played a role in the general decline in the population’s mental wellbeing, such as <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/44/27277">economic hardship</a>, heavy COVID-related <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7351429/">media exposure</a>, and reduced <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255345/">social connectedness</a> driven by lockdowns, travel restrictions, school and workplace closures and so forth. </p>
<p>Our results confirmed that reduced social connectedness in particular could account for the decline. Participants’ sense of whether they “felt close to other people” showed a pronounced decline between 2019 and 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An old woman looking out of her kitchen window" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426003/original/file-20211012-13-fn8e3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426003/original/file-20211012-13-fn8e3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426003/original/file-20211012-13-fn8e3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426003/original/file-20211012-13-fn8e3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426003/original/file-20211012-13-fn8e3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426003/original/file-20211012-13-fn8e3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426003/original/file-20211012-13-fn8e3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workplace and school closures and stay-at-home orders reduced people’s ability to socialise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/old-lonely-woman-sitting-near-window-1556085746">Solarisys/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The link between feelings of connectedness and wellbeing isn’t surprising. In a <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeling-lonely-during-the-pandemic-youre-up-to-ten-times-more-likely-to-have-worse-mental-health-153064">previous study</a>, we found that intensified loneliness during the pandemic was associated with a six- to ten-fold increase in depressed mood, anxiety symptoms and sleep problems.</p>
<p>It’s also worth noting that while there were minor restrictions in place at the time of our survey in autumn 2020, the most severe COVID control measures (full lockdown and so on) had passed. But we still recorded a negative impact on wellbeing, which suggests that the mental health of the general population doesn’t easily and immediately bounce back when restrictions are lifted.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the average mental health of those who already had depression improved. This may seem counterintuitive, but there are several reasons why these people may have fared better. Prior crises have also been <a href="https://content.apa.org/record/2020-41458-001">associated</a> with improved social functioning in some people. This could be because the stress experienced can stimulate <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0956797611431576">cooperative and trusting behaviour</a>. And this could <a href="https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Frev0000144">potentially benefit</a> those with depression. </p>
<p>For example, some depressed people may have found an opportunity to pass on their own coping experiences to others and support them in dealing with difficult circumstances, which in turn could have benefited their own mental wellbeing. Unlike most others, they may also have been well equipped – because of their experience with depression and social withdrawal – to cope with the social isolation of lockdown. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman lying on a sofa reading a book" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425945/original/file-20211012-25-ayj1hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425945/original/file-20211012-25-ayj1hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425945/original/file-20211012-25-ayj1hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425945/original/file-20211012-25-ayj1hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425945/original/file-20211012-25-ayj1hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425945/original/file-20211012-25-ayj1hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425945/original/file-20211012-25-ayj1hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For some, the enforced isolation of the pandemic will have reduced unwanted social interaction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sexy-girl-reading-book-alone-home-431456875">Enrique Arnaiz Lafuente/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s also <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-is-making-a-lot-of-people-anxious-and-depressed-but-some-sufferers-actually-feel-better-now">anecdotal evidence</a> that people with depression fared better because they felt less judged or stigmatised as a result of the overall decline in mental health across the population. With people around them experiencing emotional distress in response to the pandemic, people with poor mental health may have felt less like a minority. </p>
<p>It’s also possible that the pandemic alleviated some social pressures and unwanted interactions with other people. At the same, more time spent with immediate family could have enhanced mental wellbeing.</p>
<p>That said, an important thing to note is that people with prior depression didn’t experience levels of mental wellbeing that were higher than everyone else’s, but simply an improvement relative to how they felt prior to the pandemic.</p>
<h2>A contradiction of earlier results?</h2>
<p>Some previous studies have suggested <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240204">greater declines</a> in overall mental wellbeing than our results suggest. And previous results have suggested that most who were depressed before the pandemic <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/acta-neuropsychiatrica/article/loneliness-and-its-association-with-depressed-mood-anxiety-symptoms-and-sleep-problems-in-europe-during-the-covid19-pandemic/9A86B1CCAC7496E65647E4F65DBFDC76">felt worse</a> during it – which appears to contradict what we’ve reported in our study.</p>
<p>However, these past studies relied on participants’ ability to recall how they felt before the pandemic. They only collected data at one point in time, after the pandemic had started. This potentially leads to recall bias: people inaccurately estimating how they felt in the past. The fact that we were able to compare results taken from the same nationally representative sample before and during the pandemic allows us to draw much firmer conclusions by removing this bias.</p>
<p>These earlier studies also looked across multiple countries, whereas our study was strictly based on Danish data. People in other countries – with different health and social systems – may have been affected differently.</p>
<p>We still need to better understand how the pandemic resulted in declining mental wellbeing in the general population, and perhaps more importantly, how we can mitigate this under future pandemic conditions. There’s also an important opportunity for us to investigate what specifically during the pandemic brought about these positive effects for people living with depression, to see if we can improve their lives and recovery after COVID has subsided.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lau Caspar Thygesen receives funding from research foundations including Trygfonden, the Danish Cancer Society and Velliv Foreningen. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ola Ekholm and Ziggi Ivan Santini do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The average wellbeing of people with depression in Denmark improved over the first six months of the pandemic.Ziggi Ivan Santini, Mental Health Researcher, University of Southern DenmarkLau Caspar Thygesen, Professor of Epidemiology, University of Southern DenmarkOla Ekholm, Senior Advisor, Department of Population Health and Morbidity, University of Southern DenmarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619592021-06-08T13:13:46Z2021-06-08T13:13:46ZWhy did Denmark help the US spy on its European allies?<p>“Systematic wiretapping of close allies is unacceptable,” came a recent comment from Danish Defence Minister Trine Bramsen. And yet, it appears this is exactly what Denmark has been doing. Bramsen was responding to <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/danish-secret-service-helped-us-spy-on-germanys-angela-merkel-report/a-57721901">reporting that revealed</a> the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, or FE) had cooperated with the US National Security Agency (NSA) to enable spying on several European partners and close allies.</p>
<p>Considering the major reputational costs that would surely have been evident from the outset, why did Denmark agree to this partnership? Why would it allow the NSA to use Danish data cables to spy on senior officials in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden, including German chancellor Angela Merkel? </p>
<p>For a Danish audience this scandal is part of a longer story. In 2019, the independent board overseeing Danish intelligence services (Tilsynet med Efterretningtjenesterne, created in 2014 after the Edward Snowden leaks) received information about the FE collaborating with the NSA. The board produced a report in August 2020 criticising the intelligence service for serious wrongdoings.</p>
<p>Still little is known of the board’s strictly confidential four-volume report, which was submitted to Bramsen, but its press statement publicly <a href="https://www.tet.dk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PRESSEMEDDELELSE.pdf">criticised</a> the FE for initiating “operational activities in violation of Danish law, including by
obtaining and passing on a significant amount of information about Danish citizens”.</p>
<p>As a result of the report, five top intelligence officials were removed from office. A few months later, media reports <a href="https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/hemmelige-rapporter-usa-spionerede-mod-danske-ministerier-og-forsvarsindustri">revealed</a> that the collaboration had enabled the NSA not only to spy on neighbouring countries’ officials, but also Danish ministries and defence companies.</p>
<p>The exact nature of the retrieved information and how it was used is unclear but the fact that any information of this kind was gathered at all is in complete contrast to the FE’s purpose to prevent and counter threats to Denmark and Danish interests. </p>
<p>The most recent media reporting <a href="https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/forsvarets-efterretningstjeneste-lod-usa-spionere-mod-angela-merkel-franske-norske">suggests in more detail</a> that the FE had collaborated with the NSA to allow the US to spy on neighbouring countries though Danish internet cables between 2012 and 2014. It was revealed that the NSA was purposefully targeting high-ranking European officials, using their phone numbers as “selectors” to identify data of interest. </p>
<h2>Why chance it?</h2>
<p>Denmark’s geographical location makes the country attractive for the NSA, not least because it hosts several <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/">key underwater cables</a> for neighbouring countries. These cables can be used to get information about not only internet access, chats and messaging services, but also text messages and phone calls. </p>
<p>When considering why Denmark would allow itself to become a conduit for espionage against its allies, it’s worth remembering that, as a small country, it is dependent on security guarantees from other states. Denmark has aligned itself closely with the US – the world’s largest military superpower – not just through NATO, but also bilaterally. For Denmark, the cooperation with the US and the NSA is crucial, both in terms of technology and access to intelligence.</p>
<p>The FE is highly dependent on the NSA to combat terrorism. Through the NSA, it gains access to advanced technology such as the program Xkeyscore, used to search through and filter the raw data from the cables. It also seems that the FE had <a href="https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/forsvarets-efterretningstjeneste-lod-usa-spionere-mod-angela-merkel-franske-norske">access to information</a> about planned terror attacks via the NSA. </p>
<p>Even though progress has been made on the European side in regard to increasing cooperation on security and defence matters, Nato and particularly the US continue to be Denmark’s most important security guarantor. </p>
<p>Since the 1990s, but particularly since 9/11, Danish foreign policy has been described as “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1080/14794019908656861">super-atlanticist</a>” – prioritising building common values and interests with the US. This “strong and seemingly unwavering support for the American world order” means <a href="https://static-curis.ku.dk/portal/files/230656522/Wivel_Crandall2019_Article_PunchingAboveTheirWeightButWhy.pdf">Denmark is</a> “willing to pursue costly and risky policies to support the superpower”. </p>
<p>Additionally, Denmark remains to a large extent outside European Union security and defence cooperation because of its defence opt-out. Negotiated after the Danish population rejected the Maastricht Treaty in a referendum in 1992, the defence opt-out prevents the country from participating in those parts of the EU’s foreign and security policy that affect defence and any military cooperation at EU level. </p>
<p>This puts the relationship to the US (and Nato) at the forefront of Danish security and defence decision-making. Nor does the EU (yet) have the strength to defend itself against Russia and China should the need arise, which in part explains the draw of the US partnership.</p>
<h2>Facing the music</h2>
<p>The French government <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20210531-france-says-allegations-of-us-denmark-spying-extremely-serious-if-proven">described the allegations</a> against Denmark as “extremely serious”, with President Emmanuel Macron pointing out that “this is not acceptable between allies, and even less between allies and European partners”. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-france-demand-answers-on-us-danish-spying-scandal/a-57734166">Merkel agrees</a>, but has struck a more conciliatory tone, seeing “a good basis not only for the resolution of the matter, but also to really come to trusted relations”. However, Peer Steinbrück, former German opposition leader and candidate for chancellor, called it a <a href="https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nsa-bespitzelung-politiker-101.html">political scandal</a>.</p>
<p>Even closer to home, Norwegian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.nrk.no/norge/erna-solberg-sier-eventuell-amerikansk-overvaking-er-uakseptabelt-1.15516478">Erna Solberg said</a> “it is unacceptable if countries which have close allied cooperation feel the need to spy on one another”. Peter Hultqvist, Sweden’s defence minister, has <a href="https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/danska-regeringen-holl-spionskandalen-hemlig-for-svenska-regeringen">demanded</a> “full information”. </p>
<p>Much of these events date back to the time of the Snowden years, when it was revealed that even Germany’s foreign intelligence agency <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/05/19/germany-snowden-spying-bnd-nsa-de-cix/">cooperated with the NSA</a> to spy on its neighbours. It thus remains to be seen how much damage will really be done to Denmark’s relations with the rest of Europe. A <a href="https://www.justitsministeriet.dk/pressemeddelelse/justitsministeren-nedsaetter-undersoegelseskommissionen-om-fe/">government-commissioned investigation</a> is due to report back later in 2021. </p>
<p>However, it may be that this scandal might provide an opportunity for Denmark to take an honest look at its security and defence priorities – and its relations with European allies. A <a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-crisis-of-american-power-how-europeans-see-bidens-america/">recent poll shows</a> that 66% of Danes believe that Europe cannot always rely on the US and needs to look after its own defence capabilities. This puts Denmark’s super-atlanticist orientation into question and suggests its most important strategic partners may lie closer to home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amelie Theussen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The European nation allowed the NSA to collect data on its EU partners from undersea cables.Amelie Theussen, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Public Management, University of Southern DenmarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619712021-06-03T12:15:54Z2021-06-03T12:15:54ZWhat to do about Islamic State supporters still in Syria? Denmark’s decision sets a worrying trend<p>Denmark <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/denmark-repatriate-women-children-syrian-camps-2021-05-18/">has decided to repatriate</a> some Islamic State (IS) supporters from camps in Syria. As a result of the decision, three Danish women and their 14 children will return to Denmark, where it is expected that the mothers will be tried for terrorism.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the state has removed citizenship from three women who are dual citizens. Their children are allowed to return, but only without their mothers. Additionally, at least one male Danish foreign fighter is still imprisoned in Syria, and there is no movement to repatriate him or other unidentified Danish citizens at this time.</p>
<p>The Danish government seems to have prioritised security and politics over legal norms in making these decisions – which sets a worrying precedent at a time when many nations around the world are struggling to decide what to do about the people who went to fight for IS. </p>
<h2>Unwanted citizens</h2>
<p>It is estimated that more than 6,000 Europeans and 40,000 foreign fighters from other nations swelled the ranks of IS during its heyday. It is now more than two years after the last IS stronghold fell, yet camps in Syria still hold nearly <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/03/23/thousands-foreigners-unlawfully-held-ne-syria">70,000 IS family members</a>, about half of them children. Hundreds of these prisoners are European citizens, although many of them are not recognised or acknowledged by their governments.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/western-states-must-repatriate-is-fighters-and-their-families-before-more-break-free-from-syrian-camps-125168">For years</a>, European governments have equivocated over what to do with IS adherents and their children. Some governments, like Russia, Kazakhstan and the US, have repatriated some of their citizens and called for other countries to do the same. But most European countries have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/world/europe/isis-women-children-repatriation.html">declined to repatriate</a>, or even identify their citizens. The result has been a total impasse. Male fighters continue to live in overcrowded prison cells and women and children mark time in unsanitary and dangerous tent cities.</p>
<p>Many European countries, Denmark included, have sought to revoke citizenship in a bid to wash their hands of their countrymen. In 2019, Denmark <a href="https://www.thelocal.dk/20191024/denmark-passes-law-enabling-withdrawal-of-jihadists-citizenship/">passed a law</a> allowing the government to revoke citizenship for terror acts without seeking permission from the courts. It has applied this law retroactively. This is how three of the six Danish women identified in the camps were stripped of their citizenship while the three others will be repatriated. </p>
<p>Only citizens with dual citizenship can lose their Danish citizenship because international law forbids states from making their citizens stateless. What this means in practice is that three white, ethnic Danes will be repatriated with their children, while three non-white Danes will not be.</p>
<h2>Risk assessment over law</h2>
<p>The decision to repatriate these Danish citizens represents a significant policy shift. At first, Denmark refused to take even Danish children out of camps, then it proposed to receive Danish children without their parents, and now it proposes to receive Danish children and some of their mothers, but no fathers.</p>
<p>The government attributes this shift to a changing understanding of the security situation. The overcrowded, unsanitary prison camps in Syria are plagued by organised violence, both from IS affiliates within the camps and IS recruiters outside the camps. In December 2020, <a href="https://ekstrabladet.dk/dagsorden/indespaerret-12-aarig-dansk-dreng-jeg-er-bange/8401818">video testimony from a 12-year-old Danish boy</a> inside one of the camps went viral. In the video, the boy describes how he hides in the toilet when IS security services come through the camps recruiting.</p>
<p>It is certainly true that attempts to radicalise children who have a legal right to move freely in Europe are a security threat. These children are obvious targets for IS recruiters hopeful of mounting attacks on European soil. What is less clear is that this could be understood to represent a changed situation. </p>
<p>In fact, a 2019 Danish security services report determined that children in the camps posed a greater security threat if they remained there than if they were repatriated. This finding was reiterated in <a href="https://www.pet.dk/%7E/media/VTD%202021/2021VTDENGpdf.ashx">further reports from the same organisation in following years</a>. However, Denmark’s ruling party initially <a href="https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/samfund/private-notater-politikere-oenskede-ikke-at-hjaelpe-danske-fanger-i-udlandet/8429820">suppressed these reports</a> and did not share them with supporting parties or the Danish parliament.</p>
<p>The disregard for legal process has been overt. In fact, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has explicitly dismissed the relevance of law or other forms of expertise on the question of repatriation. In response to a journalist’s question about the rights of those imprisoned in Syria, Frederiksen <a href="https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/samfund/mette-frederiksen-ligeglad-med-eksperter/8490207">remarked</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We must take care, even though of course we’ve relied on expertise to manage the pandemic, that we don’t allow experts to decide all that we do as a country. This is of course a political decision about people who are, in my eyes, traitors.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Frederiksen’s dismissal of expertise in favour of politics signals only more problems to come, both for the IS adherents that it leaves behind to an uncertain fate, as well as those it repatriates.</p>
<p>It remains unclear what will happen to the Danish women who are repatriated from Syria. It seems likely that they will be criminally processed, but what will that look like, and how will that impact their children? Experts were recently asked to advise a government taskforce on these questions, but were only given <a href="https://um.dk/da/nyheder-fra-udenrigsministeriet/newsdisplaypage/?newsID=7AF7F41F-44F8-4157-93EB-68C980348BF9">64 hours to make their submissions</a>.</p>
<p>Criminal law has an important role to play in addressing IS adherents’ crimes, but so far Denmark and many other countries have been shying away from letting it do its work. Criminal trials in home country courts would guarantee IS adherents the fundamental rights that are critical to all of us. These include the right to meet and defend the charges against us openly, as well as the right to – if convicted – serve our punishment and re-enter society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerstin Bree Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Danish government has been clear that it prioritises politics over the law when it comes to its citizens who left to join the caliphate.Kerstin Bree Carlson, Associate Professor International Law, Roskilde UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1589122021-04-21T10:33:02Z2021-04-21T10:33:02ZWhy nursing in Denmark pays less than professions dominated by men<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396005/original/file-20210420-21-7layrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=264%2C0%2C733%2C615&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rehab-elderly-people-536383975">GagliardiPhotography/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The gender pay gap and what to do about it in Denmark recently came to a head in the nursing profession. During the pandemic, focus on the work of nurses has come to the fore in a number of countries, including in the UK where a recent proposal for <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56294009">a 1% pay increase</a> was heavily criticised. </p>
<p>In national public sector negotiations in Denmark, nurses voted against a recent pay offer of up to 5% which was set to preserve <a href="https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Definitions/Real_wages.html">real wages</a> for public workers over the next three years. But <a href="https://pure.au.dk/portal/da/persons/astrid-elkjaer-soerensen(b9a2868f-221f-4990-9fa0-d306724ab7f1)/publications/det-offentlige-loenhierarki(1a976843-623a-40ee-abbd-ef19c4ccc4e5).html">research shows</a> that it’s not just a question of a pay rise: the wage level itself is set unfairly low for those in the profession. And the root of the problem dates back to a law that came into force some 50 years ago. </p>
<p>Denmark has a reputation globally for equality, but <a href="https://politiken.dk/udland/art8172855/Britisk-ambassad%C3%B8r-forventede-total-ligestilling-i-Danmark.-Hun-tog-fejl?shareToken=ajEgmeAAdDoA">it still has problems</a> with unequal pay. Danish nurses still receive <a href="https://dsr.dk/politik-og-nyheder/nyhed/dsr-uligeloen-er-strukturel-sexisme-skabt-af-politikerne-derfor-er-det-dem">10%-20% less</a> in pay than male-dominated professions requiring a similar level of education. There are <a href="https://nordics.info/show/artikel/gender-segregation-of-nordic-labour/">many contributing factors</a> to unequal pay, but a <a href="https://menneskeret.dk/sites/menneskeret.dk/files/media/document/Rapport_Tjenestemand_06.pdf">recent report</a> from the Danish Institute for Human Rights (DIHR) found that legislation enacted in 1969 led to nurses and other female-dominated professions placed at a lower pay level. </p>
<p>Not only was the recent pay offer rejected, <a href="https://www.borgerforslag.dk/se-og-stoet-forslag/?Id=FT-07299">a citizens’ petition</a> to reform the law in respect of many traditionally female professions received the requisite 50,000 signatures, within a record-breaking eight days, to make it to parliament.</p>
<h2>Structural sexism</h2>
<p>Central to the current fight for equal pay in Denmark is the call for the Danish parliament to revisit the <a href="https://dsr.dk/politik-og-nyheder/det-mener-dsr/tjenestemandsreformen-af-1969">Public Servant Reform Act of 1969</a>. The act was intended to modernise the employment system for state employees and allow the state greater control over wage increases. The act is regarded as one of the main reasons that female-dominated professions in the public sector still have lower salaries than male counterparts in positions with a corresponding level of education and responsibility. </p>
<p>In 1965, a commission was tasked with collecting data on and assessing all job functions as officials wanted to construct a wage scale and terms and conditions based on solely objective criteria. However, collecting such a large and diverse amount of data turned out to be more challenging than anticipated. </p>
<p>The commission also could not decide which criteria it should use when classifying the different professional groups and exactly how these should be weighted in relation to each other. In a letter forwarded to all government ministries, the commission mentioned workload, education and responsibility as criteria for work assessments, but it never actually succeeded in developing a proper system. </p>
<p>The commission was also tasked with not significantly increasing spending on public salaries. It therefore had to maintain the existing status quo, limiting the number of professional groups that could be moved to a higher wage bracket. The status quo at that time dated back to the first Civil Servant Act of 1919, and the commission had little room to manoeuvre: increasing wages for one professional group would lead to demands from others. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Protesters gather in a square with red banners" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396008/original/file-20210420-23-1tog4d0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters for equal pay gather in a square with red banners.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Foran Christiansborg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though its aim was to modernise, in the end, the commission’s <a href="https://nordics.info/show/artikel/unequal-pay-in-denmark-an-outdated-laws-far-reaching-consequences/">final proposal</a> – which became law – perpetuated a system that dated much further back in time. Against this backdrop, the female-dominated professions were generally placed at a lower level in relation to their education and level of responsibility at the time. </p>
<p>The act set out that the rest of the public sector should synchronise its wages with the new system, and this wage gap eventually spread to every other type of public worker. This also effectively ensured the state a relatively high degree of control over wages in the public sector.</p>
<h2>Public pay scales today</h2>
<p>In December 2020, the <a href="https://menneskeret.dk/sites/menneskeret.dk/files/media/document/Rapport_Tjenestemand_06.pdf">report from the DIHR</a> examined the relationship between wage scales for public workers in 1969 and 2019 and found an overall correlation, demonstrating similar wage differentials today as there were then. </p>
<p>This in itself would not be a problem if the wage differences between the professions initially seemed well-founded and remain so. To investigate whether the wage scales in 1969 and 2019 were unfavourable for female-dominated professions, levels of education were analysed. The report found that female-dominated professions in 1969 were, in general, placed lower that what could be expected based on the corresponding length of education, while male-dominated professions were placed higher.</p>
<p>The same trend could be observed in 2019 but, perhaps surprisingly, there was even less correlation between educational level and position on the wage scale.</p>
<h2>Political action</h2>
<p>While wage disparity from the 1969 act and equal pay generally has been on the agenda for many years in Denmark, the report has triggered renewed public and political interest in recent weeks. What should be done to solve a wage gap stemming from a law passed over 50 years ago? </p>
<p>COVID has in Denmark, like elsewhere, highlighted care work as an essential part of society’s infrastructure, creating <a href="https://www.borgerforslag.dk/se-og-stoet-forslag/?Id=FT-07299">support and momentum</a> for equal pay activists. The citizens’ petition calls for the 1969 act to be repealed and for equality of pay between all public professional groups to be introduced.</p>
<p>Longstanding concerns over piggy-backing claims (if the wages of one profession are increased, another group will demand the same) must be overcome – and there is only one pot from which all public sector pay comes, fixed by the government. </p>
<p>Politicians have to date tried to avoid responsibility by suggesting that the common method of resolving industrial disputes in Denmark should be used, that is, collective bargaining between the trade unions and the employer federations (so-called “social partners”). However, the message of nurses and the other caring professions is loud and clear: it is up to the politicians to do something about an outdated law that has unwittingly echoed down the ages.</p>
<p><em>This article is co-published with <a href="https://nordics.info/">Nordics.info</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Astrid Elkjær Sørensen receives funding from Ligelønsalliancen (A umbrella organization for Danish Trade Unions)</span></em></p>A law from 1969 is still having an impact on nursing pay in Denmark today.Astrid Elkjær Sørensen, Postdoctoral Researcher in History, Aarhus UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.