tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/disenfranchisement-32830/articlesDisenfranchisement – The Conversation2024-02-08T13:21:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215732024-02-08T13:21:26Z2024-02-08T13:21:26ZAI could help cut voter fraud – but it’s far more likely to disenfranchise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570452/original/file-20240120-27-wwkoa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C44%2C5802%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Yeexin Richelle</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine the year is 2029. You have been living at the same address for a decade. The postman, who knows you well, smiles as he walks to your door and hands you a bunch of letters. As you sift through them, one card grabs your attention. It says: “Let us know if you are still here.” </p>
<p>It’s an election year and the card from the electoral office is asking you to confirm you are still a resident at the same address. It has a deadline, and you may be purged from the voter list if you don’t respond to it. </p>
<p>You had read about the government using AI to detect and eliminate electoral fraud through selective querying. Is it the AI pointing fingers at you? A quick check reveals your neighbours haven’t received any such cards. You feel singled out and insecure. Why have you been asked to prove that you live where you’ve lived for so long?</p>
<p>Let’s look under the hood. You received the card because election officials had deployed an AI system that can triangulate evidence to estimate why some voters should be contacted to check whether they are still a resident at their address. It profiles voters based on whether they display the behaviour of a “typical” resident. </p>
<p>In this case, you had taken early retirement and not filed tax returns in the past few years. And you had been on vacation during the previous election in 2024. These actions led the AI to conclude that you could be lingering in the electoral list illegitimately and triggered the system to contact you. </p>
<p>This fictional story is more plausible than you might think. In 2017 and 2018, more than 340,000 Wisconsin residents <a href="https://www.wicourts.gov/ca/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=255587">received</a> a letter asking them to confirm if they needed to remain on the voter list. This was at the behest of a US-wide organisation called <a href="https://ericstates.org/">Eric</a>, which had classified these voters as “movers” – those who may have ceased to be residents. Eric used data on voting history to identify movers – but also administrative data such as <a href="https://elections.wi.gov/memo/2023-eric-movers-review-process-quarter-4">driving licence and post office records</a>. </p>
<p>Eric may not have used any sophisticated AI, but the logic it employed is very much the kind of logic that an AI would be expected to apply, only at a much larger scale.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A roll of stickers reading 'I voted' next to a a picture US flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If AI is left in charge of prompting voter registrations, fewer people might end up on the roll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Barbara Kalbfleisch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The approach seemed highly effective. Only 2% of people responded, suggesting the vast majority of the people contacted were indeed movers. But <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abe4498">research</a> later showed systematic demographic patterns among Eric errors. The people erroneously identified as movers (and ended up showing up to vote) were far more likely to be from ethnic minorities.</p>
<h2>AI and ‘majoritarian gerrymandering’</h2>
<p>AI algorithms are used in a variety of real-world settings to make judgments on human users. Supermarkets routinely use algorithms to judge whether you are a beer person or a wine person to send you targeted offers. </p>
<p>Every online payment transaction is being assessed by an AI in real-time to decide whether it could be fraudulent. If you’ve ever tried to buy something and ended up triggering an additional security measure – be it a password prompt or request for authentication on a mobile app – your bank’s AI was judging your attempted transaction as abnormal or suspect.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">research</a> shows that abundant AI capacity is available to make judgments on whether people’s behaviour is deviant or abnormal. To return to our opening example, in a world where early retirement is not the norm, an early retiree has the scales tipped against them.</p>
<p>Such social sorting, carried out by AI-based judgments, could be interpreted as a latent or soft form of majoritarian gerrymandering. Traditional gerrymandering is the unethical practice of redrawing electoral district boundaries to skew electoral outcomes. AI-based social sorting could disenfranchise people for behaving in a way that deviates from the way the majority behaves. </p>
<p>The patterns in the Wisconsin case should have us concerned that voters from ethnic minorities were systematically being classified as deviating from cultural norms. </p>
<h2>Who gets a vote?</h2>
<p>In an ideal world, the electoral roll would include all eligible voters and exclude all ineligible voters. Clean voter lists are vital for democracy. </p>
<p>Having ineligible voters lurking on lists opens the possibility for spurious voting, skewing the result and damaging electoral integrity. On the other hand, leaving eligible voters off a list disenfranchises them and could result in election results that don’t reflect the true will of the people. </p>
<p>Ensuring access to the franchise to every eligible voter is therefore very important. To do a good job, efforts towards clean voter lists need to spread their focus <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1532673X20906472">reasonably between integrity and access</a>. </p>
<p>The question, therefore, becomes whether AI is capable of doing this. As it stands today, AI is fundamentally a data-driven technology – one that is adept at looking at existing data and identifying regularities or irregularities. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">much better equipped</a> to spot issues with existing data than to identify instances of missing data. That means it is good at identifying people who may have moved from their registered address but not good at identifying new residents who have not registered to vote. </p>
<p>In a world of AI-driven electoral cleansing, you are much more likely to receive a “are you still here?” card than your new neighbour is likely to receive a “have you considered registering to vote?” card. </p>
<p>What this means for using AI to clean up voter lists is stark. It risks skewing the balance towards checking for integrity and away from enabling access. Integrity focused efforts in essence involve pointing fingers at people and putting the onus on them to confirm they are legitimate voters. Access focused efforts are like a welcoming pat on the back – an invitation to be part of the political process.</p>
<p>Even if widespread disenfranchisement doesn’t happen, states still risk undermining trust in elections by using AI on a larger scale. It could lead voters to feel electoral offices are obsessively oriented towards fault-finding and much less interested in democratic inclusion. And at a time when trust in elections is needed more than ever, that perception could be just as damaging as actually cutting people from electoral rolls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stanley Simoes receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 945231; and the Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepak Padmanabhan and Muiris MacCarthaigh do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI is likely to be used to help us run elections in the near future but there are risks as well as reward.Deepak Padmanabhan, Senior Lecturer in AI ethics, Queen's University BelfastMuiris MacCarthaigh, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, Queen's University BelfastStanley Simoes, Marie Curie Early Stage Researcher, School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2038832023-05-16T12:39:47Z2023-05-16T12:39:47ZUS has a long history of state lawmakers silencing elected Black officials and taking power from their constituents<p>Some Republican lawmakers in Georgia are targeting Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, a Black Democrat representing a majority Black district, for removal from office. </p>
<p>These efforts come in the midst of Willis’ investigation and prosecution of former President Donald Trump and 18 others for their alleged conspiracy to overturn results of the state’s 2020 presidential election. </p>
<p>Before a Fulton County grand jury indicted Trump and his co-defendants, Georgia Republican lawmakers pushed through legislation to set up a Prosecuting Attorneys Qualifications Commission, which has the power to discipline or remove from office elected district attorneys whom commission members believe are not adequately enforcing Georgia law. Governor Brian Kemp, also a Republican, <a href="https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2023-05-05/gov-kemp-signs-legislation-creating-prosecuting-attorneys-qualifications">signed the legislation</a> on May 5, 2023. </p>
<p>Steve Gooch, Georgia Senate majority leader, and state Senator Clint Dixon, have said they will use the newly created commission – which will be up and running Oct. 1, 2023 – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/01/georgia-republicans-fani-willis-unseat">to investigate Willis</a>. </p>
<p>Kemp, who objects, said on Aug. 31, 2023, that he “<a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/kemp-rejects-talk-of-special-session-warns-of-risks-of-punishing-fani-willis/I4JZYJIORNACFKY2COSFE3VCSI/">hasn’t seen any evidence</a>” Willis violated her oath of office. </p>
<p>These efforts to undercut prosecutors’ authority in Georgia are not happening in a silo. </p>
<p>On Aug. 9, 2023, Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/09/desantis-suspends-state-attorney-worrell-0011044">suspended elected State Attorney Monique Worrell</a>, whom he said was too lenient with criminals. Worrell was Florida’s only Black woman state attorney. DeSantis <a href="https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/08/09/ron-desantis-andrew-bain-monique-worrell/">replaced her with Black conservative Andrew Bain</a>. </p>
<p>In Mississippi, legislators have enacted a law that would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/08/jackson-mississippi-republicans-unelected-court-system">create a new judicial system</a> covering the state’s capital city, Jackson, in place of the current county court system. </p>
<p>In effect since July 1, 2023, the move by a Republican-dominated legislature has been criticized by opponents as creating a “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/04/24/separate-and-unequal-policing-naacp-sues-mississippi-over-new-laws/11728899002/">separate and unequal</a>” court system that is not answerable to the majority-Black community it would seek to govern.</p>
<p>The law was justified by supporters as an effort to curb the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/naacp-sues-mississippi-over-state-takeover-of-jacksons-policing-and-courts/ar-AA1ahuKA">city’s crime level</a>, which includes <a href="https://www.wlbt.com/2023/01/07/analysis-second-straight-year-jacksons-homicide-rate-ranks-highest-us-among-major-cities/">one of the highest murder rates in the nation</a>. </p>
<p>But the move was the third time in recent months that state legislatures have taken highly visible actions to effectively disenfranchise Black voters: On April 6, 2023, the Tennessee House of Representatives <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2023/04/07/tennessee-house-expulsion-vote-why-were-lawmakers-expelled/70092066007/">expelled two Black members</a> who represented mostly Black districts. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=566DVVQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociologist who studies historical issues related to race, gender and social justice</a>, I have closely followed these moves by the states. Throughout U.S. history, I see three main periods of legislative disenfranchisement in which legislative bodies have voted to expel members. These events have been shown to be a form of “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5816/blackscholar.44.2.0103">white backlash</a>” working to keep <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ahr/118.2.551">Black officeholders out of power and their constituents powerless without representation</a>.</p>
<h2>Reconstruction and legislative disenfranchisement</h2>
<p>After the Civil War, the United States engaged in a brief period known as <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/reconstruction">Reconstruction</a>, which lasted from 1865 to 1877. It was a deliberate attempt to reverse the negative effects and legacies of slavery by enacting economic, political and social policies that directly benefited the formerly enslaved Black people of the South. </p>
<p>The efforts included formally <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-13/">abolishing slavery nationwide</a>, guaranteeing <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/">equal protection of the laws</a> to everyone regardless of race, and <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-15/">allowing formerly enslaved people to vote</a>. In addition, formerly Confederate <a href="https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/history-archaeology/shermans-field-order-no-15/">land was set aside</a> for newly freed Black families, and former Confederate soldiers were not allowed to vote.</p>
<p>But after Tennessee politician Andrew Johnson, who had been Abraham Lincoln’s running mate in 1864, took office upon Lincoln’s assassination, many of those provisions of Reconstruction <a href="https://www.nps.gov/anjo/andrew-johnson-and-reconstruction.htm">were reversed</a>. Former Confederate combatants were allowed to vote, and confiscated Confederate property was returned to its prewar owners.</p>
<p>In addition, Johnson and Congress made it easier for defeated Confederate states to <a href="https://www.nps.gov/anjo/andrew-johnson-and-reconstruction.htm">rejoin the Union</a>, which allowed former Confederate leaders to regain their previous positions of power in local and national governments. </p>
<p>Georgia was originally readmitted to the Union in <a href="https://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/opinion/columns/georgias-readmission-to-the-union/article_afb9fc3e-886c-5b5d-ac2f-0e975f68b32e.html">July 1868</a>. But just two months later, in September, the Democratically controlled Georgia Assembly, with a total of 196 members, voted to expel all 33 of its Black elected officials.</p>
<p>Immediately upon making themselves into an all-white legislature, the remaining assembly members enacted the infamous <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/black-codes">Black Codes</a>. These codes created a unique set of laws specific to the newly freed Blacks, including limiting the types of work they could do.</p>
<p>Collectively, the legislative expulsion of the Black officials and the imposition of the Black Codes served to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/rule-by-violence-rule-by-law-lynching-jim-crow-and-the-continuing-evolution-of-voter-suppression-in-the-us/CBC6AD86B557A093D7E832F8D821978B">effectively disenfranchise</a> the Black voters of Georgia. Senator Henry McNeal Turner, one of those expelled, defiantly <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/georgia-unique-bloody-history-voter-disenfranchisement">asked</a>: “Am I a man? If I am such, I claim the rights of a man.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A drawing of a Black man standing on a porch with people surrounding him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526293/original/file-20230515-24710-e5v3f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under the Black Codes, which were restrictive laws in the post-Reconstruction South, a Black person could be sold into what was effectively a new version of slavery if they could not repay fines or debts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/copy-of-an-illustration-showing-a-free-black-man-being-sold-news-photo/134341296">Interim Archives/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The civil rights era</h2>
<p>Another major effort to disenfranchise Black Americans came during their next major push to achieve political, social and economic equality: the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/civil-rights-movement">Civil Rights Movement</a> of the 1950s and 1960s. Opponents targeted two prominent civil rights activists who had been elected to represent their communities: Adam Clayton Powell Jr. and Julian Bond.</p>
<p>Bond was elected as a Democrat to the Georgia House of Representatives in 1965, but on Jan. 10, 1966, the Democratically controlled House voted not to seat him, citing his criticism of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08997225.1974.10555931">U.S. involvement in Vietnam and support of students who were protesting the war</a>. A year later, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Bond’s <a href="https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/182/bond-v-floyd">First Amendment rights</a> had been violated and ordered that he be seated. But for that intervening year, his constituents had no voice in their state legislature. Bond ultimately served in the Georgia Legislature for <a href="https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/history-archaeology/julian-bond-1940-2015/">another two decades</a>, before turning to teaching and activism.</p>
<p>Powell’s situation was different. He was the first African American to be elected to Congress from New York and from any state in the Northeast. Starting in 1945, he represented the district that included the majority-Black Harlem neighborhood of New York City. He became <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2783891?seq=12">one of the most important Democrats</a> in the House, but in the mid-1960s, he found himself <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Adam-Clayton-Powell-Jr">embroiled in personal and financial scandals</a>. </p>
<p>After the election of 1966, the House created a committee to investigate Powell’s actions and <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Listing/P/POWELL,-Adam-Clayton,-Jr--(P000477)/">refused to seat him</a> until the committee’s report was complete. The report found fault, but committee members were split on the proper discipline for Powell. Ultimately the whole House voted to keep him out.</p>
<p>Powell <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Listing/P/POWELL,-Adam-Clayton,-Jr--(P000477)/">sued to reclaim his seat</a>, saying the House had excluded him unconstitutionally. He also won the special election in April 1967 created by the vacancy but didn’t take his seat because of the lawsuit. The removal of Powell meant that Harlem was <a href="https://archive.org/details/kingofcatsli00hayg">the only congressional district in the nation</a> without a representative from 1967 to 1969.</p>
<p>In 1969, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-supreme-court/395/486.html">House had acted unconstitutionally</a> by refusing to seat Powell. By then, Powell had also won the 1968 regularly scheduled election and had been seated, though without the seniority and committee positions that would normally have been given to someone who had continuously been a House member. </p>
<h2>Black Lives Matter movement</h2>
<p>In the aftermath of the George Floyd killing, a <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/blacklivesmatter-hashtag-first-appears-facebook-sparking-a-movement">new social movement</a> emerged across the United States. With this new activism came another “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000460">white backlash</a>” in the form of legislative disenfranchisement.</p>
<p>In May 2022, Tiara Young Hudson, a long-serving Black public defender, <a href="https://www.cbs42.com/alabama-news/last-month-jefferson-county-voters-elected-a-new-judge-now-she-may-never-take-the-bench/">won the Democratic primary</a> for a judgeship in Jefferson County, Alabama. <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/jeffersoncountyalabama">More than half of the county’s population</a> is nonwhite. Facing no opposition in the general election, she was expected to win and take office. </p>
<p>But two weeks after the primary, a state judicial commission, divided along racial lines, <a href="https://www.al.com/news/2022/06/alabama-commission-moves-vacant-jefferson-county-judgeship-to-understaffed-madison-county-courts.html">eliminated the position she was a candidate for</a> and created a new judgeship in the majority-white Madison County. </p>
<p>Hudson immediately <a href="https://www.al.com/news/2022/07/candidate-who-won-jefferson-county-judicial-seat-sues-to-block-transfer-of-seat-to-madison-county.html">sued to block the shift</a>, saying it violated the Alabama Constitution and only the state Legislature had the authority to reallocate judgeships. In March 2023, the state Supreme Court <a href="https://www.al.com/news/2023/03/alabama-supreme-court-allows-jefferson-county-judgeship-transfer-to-madison-county.html">dismissed Hudson’s complaint</a>, effectively stripping the Black people of Jefferson County of a representative they had elected to be their voice on the state’s roster of judges.</p>
<p>And on April 6, 2023, the Republican majority of the Tennessee House of Representatives voted to expel two Black legislators – Justin Pearson and Justin Jones – for participating in a protest calling for gun legislation following yet another mass shooting. </p>
<p>Within days, both Pearson and Jones had been temporarily reinstated by processes for filling vacant seats, and subsequently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/tennessee-democrats-expelled-gop-protests-special-election-rcna97374">reclaimed their seats in special elections</a>. Their alleged violation was participating in a protest against legislature rules – but their real violation, I believe, was that they are Black. I believe that is the reason Willis is being targeted too.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on May 16, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodney Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Throughout US history, a ‘white backlash’ has worked to keep Black officeholders and their constituents out of power. Atlanta DA Fani Willis is just the latest.Rodney Coates, Professor of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1989502023-04-14T15:19:11Z2023-04-14T15:19:11ZVoter ID: analysis shows Conservative MPs offering weak justification for law which is now in force<p>The UK government has <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/37/contents/enacted">changed the law</a> so that people in England will have to show ID when they go to vote. This controversial new rule was brought in on the insistence that the “integrity of elections” needs to be protected. But it has the potential to prevent many people from taking part in elections. </p>
<p>Given the stakes, you would expect this to mean there is good evidence that elections in the UK are in danger of being compromised. If there is concern about their integrity, there must be an issue with voter fraud – and specifically with people posing as other people in order to vote in their name. This, after all, would be the only problem that voter ID could resolve. </p>
<p>When I explored how Conservative MPs <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/76/1/62/6549976">debated this controversial policy in parliament</a>, however, I found that they didn’t seem to talk much about voter fraud by impersonation, despite voting to introduce ID to prevent it.</p>
<p>All the evidence shows voter fraud is extremely rare in the UK. There have been only <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9304/CBP-9304.pdf">three convictions</a> of voter impersonation in the past seven years. I found both Conservative and Labour MPs agreed that the number of reported voter fraud cases is small. </p>
<p>Rather than talking about voter fraud as a meaningful problem (because they weren’t able to) Conservative MPs could be found arguing that this is <a href="https://www.theyworkforyou.com/whall/?id=2018-06-06a.178.0&s=matter+of+principle+speaker%3A24691#g194.1">“not about statistics; it is about the principle”</a>. Even if it isn’t happening at the moment, they argued, <a href="https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2021-09-07c.198.0&s=the+risk+of+electoral+fraud+does+exist+and+needs+to+be+tackled+speaker%3A25904#g259.0">“the risk of electoral fraud does exist and needs to be tackled”</a> and that <a href="https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2018-05-09.HL7714.h&s=electoral+fraud+is+unacceptable+on+any+level+speaker%3A10659#gHL7714.r0">“electoral fraud is unacceptable on any level”</a>.</p>
<p>This argument is like saying we should make rules to stop everything that might possibly happen, which is especially worrying when evidence warns the new law could deter significantly more legal votes than the fraudulent ones it might prevent.</p>
<h2>Increasing already high confidence?</h2>
<p>Conservative MPs also often argued that voter ID is needed to strengthen public confidence in the electoral system. In the first debate about voter ID in April 2018, Chloe Smith, who was then the cabinet office minister, <a href="https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2018-04-24.137599.h&s=there+is+clearly+the+potential+for+electoral+fraud+in+our+system+and+that+undermines+confidence+and+promotes+perceptions+of+vulnerability+speaker%3A24691#g137599.r0">argued</a> the “policy is designed to increase confidence in our system and to make it harder for someone to commit such a crime against another person”. She said: “There is clearly the potential for electoral fraud in our system and that undermines confidence and promotes perceptions of vulnerability.”</p>
<p>But a recent Electoral Commission survey found that public confidence in the running of elections in the UK is currently <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/our-research/public-attitudes">very high</a> among the general public. In fact, more people agree there are sufficient safeguards in place to prevent electoral fraud than those who don’t. </p>
<p>Most people believe barriers to democratic participation for minority ethnic groups pose more of a problem than electoral fraud. And here we do have evidence. As equality thinktank the Runnymede Trust highlights, the governemnt’s own data shows 38% of Asian people, 31% of people of mixed ethnicity and 48% of black people do not have the <a href="https://www.runnymedetrust.org/blog/voter-id-a-disproportionate-solution-to-an-invisible-problem">right form of ID</a> to vote under this new law.</p>
<p>When the Electoral Commission ran pilot schemes on voter ID in 2018 and 2019, they found <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/our-research/voter-identification-pilots/may-2019-voter-identification-pilot-schemes/impact-voters-confidence">mixed evidence</a> on voter ID’s effect on people’s confidence in the integrity of the election. The commission warned against its findings being used to justify a nationwide rollout. </p>
<h2>Voters pay the price</h2>
<p>All this makes it deeply questionable that the need to reassure the public is a sound justification for such a significant change – particularly since the repercussions could be severe.</p>
<p>Unlike most countries where a government ID is required to vote, Great Britain has no widely adopted free or low-cost ID option. (Northern Ireland already requires <a href="https://www.eoni.org.uk/Electoral-Identity-Card/Electoral-Identity-Card-FAQs">voter ID</a> and provides them free of charge.) </p>
<p>Concerns <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/09/warning-over-photo-id-law-change-for-uk-wide-and-english-elections">have been raised</a> that asking prospective voters to show photo ID to cast their ballot might make it harder for people from minority backgrounds and those who are less well-off to participate in elections. </p>
<p>The Electoral Reform Society also notes that the forms of photo ID accepted are those older people more likely have. For example, an Oyster 60+ travel card is acceptable, but not a similar Oyster 18+ card. University photo ID cards are <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/campaigns/voter-id/">excluded from the list</a>.</p>
<p>This is interesting since Conservative MPs consistently portrayed voter ID as a benefit to all British voters and therefore positioned themselves as speaking for the electorate. </p>
<p>This view was not shared by representatives of major opposition parties, who grouped together to send a joint <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/13/tories-trying-to-rig-elections-with-compulsory-voter-id">letter</a> to the Cabinet Office. In it they described the implementation of voter ID requirements as “a blatant attempt by the Conservatives to rig the result of future elections” by preventing people from voting - especially those unlikely to vote Conservative.</p>
<p>It is thought that 4% of the population in Great Britain does not have the appropriate photo ID. That amounts to over 2 million people. Voters can now apply for a free voter ID but a government-commissioned survey conducted in 2022 found that <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/our-research/public-attitudes">less than half</a> of those without the correct ID said they would apply to get a free voter ID card.</p>
<p>Various election officials and elected councillors have voiced concerns and even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/10/delay-uk-voter-id-checks-or-face-election-result-challenges-officials-warn">urged the government</a> to delay the introduction of voter ID at May’s local elections, warning that a short timetable and lack of clarity about the rules could prevent thousands of people from voting. </p>
<p>My analysis highlights serious limitations of justifying electoral policy based on public opinion, without understanding how these are formed in the first place, or how they can be affected by policy changes. </p>
<p>Importantly, while voter ID seems to have been passed to strengthen public confidence in the electoral system, people in the UK do have confidence in the running of elections. Yet, despite this and extremely low levels of voter fraud, the controversial voter ID policy, with its potential harm to voter access, is now officially law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198950/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ana Alonso Curbelo receives PhD funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).</span></em></p>Voters now need to take ID to the ballot box in England, despite little evidence that fraud is a problem.Ana Alonso Curbelo, PhD Candidate, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1874972022-12-28T09:20:34Z2022-12-28T09:20:34ZWhy aren’t children allowed to vote? An expert debunks the arguments against<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493550/original/file-20221104-10296-1za1xx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C73%2C5414%2C3563&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-preteen-friends-park-smiling-camera-735971812">Monkey Business Images / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most people think democracy is something that adults do and regard the prospect of children voting as too silly to even contemplate. In the early 20th century, many democracies began (ostensibly) operating with universal suffrage, ensuring voting rights were no longer withheld from adults on the basis of wealth or sex or race. But age thresholds have endured, and children continue to be excluded from democracy – an exclusion based on what they are (young), and adults’ assumptions about what it means to be young.</p>
<p>However, in a <a href="https://www.cypcs.org.uk/wpcypcs/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/crc-report-2020.pdf">2020 report to the UN</a>, the UK’s children’s commissioner concluded that the UK government “does not prioritise children’s rights or voices in policy or legislative processes”. Consequently, the report argued, children’s economic status is often worse than older people’s, and during crises such as the COVID pandemic, their insights and needs are ignored. They didn’t have a say in Brexit and their concerns about the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34895496/">environment</a> are routinely marginalised, despite children being set to bear the brunt of both.</p>
<p>A number of countries allow teenagers <a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/legal-voting-age-by-country.html">aged 16 and 17</a> to vote, but I think we should be thinking harder about our reasons for disenfranchising even very young children. If we’re excluding them unfairly, the credibility of democracy is at risk. Here are three common arguments against children voting. In each case, I believe the grounds for exclusion are a lot less secure than we might think. </p>
<h2>1. Children are too ill-informed to vote</h2>
<p>The most common response to the question “why can’t children vote?” is that children are too ill-informed or irrational to do it properly. While adults are capable of understanding what they are voting on, it’s too much to expect of children, whose cognitive abilities are much less developed. Children are unlikely to think for themselves, but rather copy the views of authority figures like parents and teachers.</p>
<p>This may be true. But at what point does knowledge or rationality become relevant to voting, and what it is that voters need in order to vote “well” or “responsibly”? Is it the capacity to identify candidates or political parties? Or the ability to analyse politicians’ past performances and future promises? Must voters understand the legislative process and the roles of the various branches of government?</p>
<p>Though these insights are probably useful, there’s no agreement on what’s essential. And because we’re not sure what’s required, it’s impossible to say adults have it – whatever <em>it</em> is – and children don’t.</p>
<p>In fact, the differences between children and adults are likely narrower than we commonly suppose: 35% of UK adult voters <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/12/02/yougov-democracy-study">can’t identify their local MP</a> while, at different times, 59% of Americans haven’t been sure which party their state governor belongs to, and only 44% have been able to <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691169446/democracy-for-realists">name a branch of government</a>. We let these adults vote, and rightly so, yet disqualify <em>all</em> children for apparently exhibiting the same characteristics.</p>
<p>The fact that adults don’t need to show franchise credentials or an independence of mind shows that voting is not a privilege of competency, but rather a right of citizenship. The franchise should therefore be enjoyed by all citizens, including children and even babies. </p>
<p>If this seems frivolous, consider that very young children who can’t walk or hold a pen are extremely unlikely, in practice, to exercise their right to vote – much as many adults, for any number of reasons, decline to exercise theirs. What’s important is that whenever citizens acquire an inclination to vote – a motivation that presupposes an understanding of what elections do and how they work – the option should be available. Whether they’re four or 94. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman's hand and a small child's hand put a vote into a ballot box together" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493547/original/file-20221104-19-nvn7xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=746%2C511%2C2778%2C1855&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493547/original/file-20221104-19-nvn7xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493547/original/file-20221104-19-nvn7xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493547/original/file-20221104-19-nvn7xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493547/original/file-20221104-19-nvn7xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493547/original/file-20221104-19-nvn7xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493547/original/file-20221104-19-nvn7xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If knowledge or rationality were necessary to vote, many adults wouldn’t have the right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/womans-kids-hands-puting-card-vote-1529854547">Dziurek / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Children voting would lead to policy chaos</h2>
<p>Another argument against children voting is that it would lead to policy chaos. If children are irrational and incoherent but nevertheless allowed to vote, the outcome of elections, and the policy decisions they give rise to, would surely reflect or be distorted by their ill-conceived and incoherent votes.</p>
<p>However, this misunderstands the role of elections. Voting is not the same as making law. To vote isn’t to decide what happens or get one’s way, or even necessarily to set the political agenda. Distilling public opinion is a messy and complicated process. And because the link between what the public wants and what it gets isn’t always direct or obvious, wacky voter beliefs aren’t necessarily echoed in policy.</p>
<p>This is why representative democracies can function with vast numbers of uninformed and irrational citizens. In fact, overcoming voter ignorance is precisely what representative politics – in which the people elect representatives to take decisions on their behalf – is all about. </p>
<p>Voting, therefore, is a statement of equality, a recognition of equal moral standing. More concretely, it’s a (loose) guarantee that one’s concerns and perspectives will not be systematically overlooked by politicians. The fact that children can’t vote means they’re denied this respect and protection. As the historic experiences of excluded women and ethnic minorities show us, this is not a good position to be in.</p>
<h2>3. Voting rights shouldn’t come before other rights</h2>
<p>The third objection to giving children the vote relates to the order in which particular rights and responsibilities are acquired. Voting is a serious business, the argument goes, and thus the right to vote should coincide with, or follow, the right to perform other activities of similar weight and consequence, such as smoking and drinking, getting married or joining the army.</p>
<p>However, it’s worth asking why <em>any</em> of these rights are postponed in the first place. The basic answer is that exercising these rights is potentially harmful, so they’re only conferred on individuals who understand, and are likely to be mindful of, the risks. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of young people in school uniforms with a handpainted sign reading 'Stop burning our future'/" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493548/original/file-20221104-12-niajzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493548/original/file-20221104-12-niajzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493548/original/file-20221104-12-niajzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493548/original/file-20221104-12-niajzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493548/original/file-20221104-12-niajzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493548/original/file-20221104-12-niajzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493548/original/file-20221104-12-niajzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Youth activism has gained traction worldwide with the climate movement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-victoria-australia-may-21-2021-1978126466">Christie Cooper / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We withhold such rights from children because (we assume) they often fail to think through the consequences of their actions. However, we don’t stop heedless adults exercising their liberty in a self-destructive way. So why aren’t children granted the same latitude?</p>
<p>The answer has something to do with protecting children’s <em>potential</em>. We deny children harmful freedoms so as not to jeopardise their future freedoms, to ensure they reach adulthood with as many life opportunities as possible. </p>
<p>This rationale holds vis-à-vis the right to drink or the age of consent. But it works less well with voting rights, which aren’t obviously dangerous and pose no direct threat to children’s future wellbeing.</p>
<p>It seems, therefore, that children are suffering an injustice: they’re being denied the vote without adequate justification. At the same time, young people are acutely <a href="https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Youth_and_Satisfaction_with_Democracy-lite.pdf">dissatisfied with democracy</a>, in part because they’re overlooked in democratic decision-making.</p>
<p>Enfranchisement is not a silver bullet. But unless the place of children in democracy is improved and deepened, political division and democratic distrust will surely worsen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187497/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harry Pearse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our assumptions about what it means to be young have left millions of people disenfranchised.Harry Pearse, Research associate, Centre for the Future of Democracy, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925932022-10-20T04:46:30Z2022-10-20T04:46:30ZWhy permanent residents and long-term temporary visa holders should be able to vote in federal elections<p>Who should have the right to vote?</p>
<p>A common answer is adult citizens of a country. Indeed, the national electoral laws of most countries – including <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s93.html">Australia</a> – adopt this approach.</p>
<p>But what about the approximately 3.4 million <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/foi/files/2021/fa-210200044-document-released.PDF">permanent residents</a> and <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-ab245863-4dea-4661-a334-71ee15937130/details">temporary visa holders</a>? Many of them call Australia home, having lived and worked in this country for years, and together they amount to more than 13% of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population#:%7E:text=The%202021%20Census%20counted%2025%2C422%2C788,age%20of%2039%20years%20old">Australian population</a>.</p>
<p>Should they be denied the right to vote because they don’t have citizenship, despite the strong connections they have to the country? </p>
<p>I argue “no”. Not having citizenship shouldn’t mean automatic disqualification from being able to vote.</p>
<p>Permanent residents and long-term holders of temporary visas should be able to vote in federal elections (as they can in most local government elections) because of their social membership of the Australian community.</p>
<h2>Citizenship as a floor but not a ceiling</h2>
<p>Citizenship is a compelling basis for voting rights. Article 25 of the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/international-covenant-civil-and-political-rights">International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights</a> stipulates “every citizen” shall have rights of political participation including the right to vote. </p>
<p>It is, however, a grave mistake to treat non-citizenship as a basis of exclusion from voting rights. Article 25 guarantees particular political rights to citizens, but it does not deny these rights to non-citizens. Citizenship is a floor not a ceiling for voting rights.</p>
<p>As the United Nations Human Rights Committee <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/221930?ln=en">recognised</a>, permanent residents may be provided political rights compatibly with Article 25. Indeed, Article 21(3) of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights">Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a> states that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Australian Constitution, which doesn’t expressly mention <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/MelbULawRw/2000/24.html">citizenship</a>, similarly requires members of parliament be “<a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution/chapter1/Part_III_-_The_House_of_Representatives#chapter-01_part-03_24">directly chosen by the people</a>”. Both documents clearly point to an understanding of political community broader than one based on citizenship. </p>
<p>Such a broader understanding is evident in many countries where non-citizens are <a href="https://comparativemigrationstudies.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40878-022-00286-0">entitled to vote in sub-national elections</a>. In Australia, resident non-citizens are entitled to vote at local government elections in <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/vic/consol_act/lga2020182/s240.html">Victoria</a>, <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/sa/consol_act/lga1999275/s16.html">South Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/tas/consol_act/lga1993182/s254.html">Tasmania</a>.</p>
<p>In several countries, non-citizens are also entitled to vote in national elections including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.nec.go.kr/site/eng/03/10301030000002020070601.jsp">South Korea</a> where “a non-Korean citizen registered in the relevant local constituency and who has had a resident visa for at least three years has the right to vote” in presidential and National Assembly elections</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://vote.nz/enrolling/get-ready-to-enrol/are-you-eligible-to-enrol-and-vote/">New Zealand</a> where permanent residents who have “lived in New Zealand continuously for 12 months or more at some time” can vote in national elections.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>‘Social membership’ as a basis for the right to vote</h2>
<p>Alongside citizenship, the deep connections one has to a country through family, friends, work and a sense of belonging are also a basis of membership of a political community. These connections and belonging provide both commitment and consequence: they signify caring for the country of residence and being profoundly affected by its laws.</p>
<p>In his book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-ethics-of-immigration-9780199933839?cc=au&lang=en&">The Ethics of Immigration</a>, political scientist Joseph Carens captured this insight through his principle of “social membership”. This is where membership arises from “the relationships, interests, and identities that connect people to the place where they live”. As a proxy for these dense connections, Carens proposed length of residence.</p>
<p>This principle of social membership is reflected in countries where non-citizens are entitled to vote (including most Australian local government elections).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-australian-citizenship-test-can-you-really-test-values-via-multiple-choice-146574">The new Australian citizenship test: can you really test 'values' via multiple choice?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This concept is also suggested in various international documents. The <a href="https://www.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl486/files/migrated_files/What-We-Do/docs/Final-Declaration-2013-En.pdf">Declaration of the High-level Dialogue on International Migration and Development</a>, a resolution unanimously adopted by the United Nations General Assembly, acknowledges “the important role that migrants play as partners in the development of countries of origin, transit and destination”.</p>
<p>The General Assembly’s <a href="https://www.iom.int/global-compact-migration">Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration</a> lays down a commitment to “foster inclusive and cohesive societies by empowering migrants to become active members of society”.</p>
<p>History provides surprising support. At the heart of the original Commonwealth Franchise bills was a highly progressive principle of inclusion – even by today’s standards. In the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0102/02RP17">words</a> of Senator Richard O’Connor, who had their carriage, they recognised</p>
<blockquote>
<p>one ground only, as giving a right to vote, and that is residence in the Commonwealth for six months or over by any person of adult age. That franchise is the broadest possible one. There is no class of the community left out.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Racist opposition, however, resulted in the eventual Commonwealth Franchise Act of 1902 denying Indigenous Australians, Asians, Africans and Pacific Islanders the right to vote. </p>
<h2>Reflecting the Australian community</h2>
<p>The principle of social membership explains why permanent residents should have the vote in federal elections (perhaps after a brief period of continuous residence, as in New Zealand).</p>
<p>It also provides a strong argument for long-term holders of temporary visas to have the vote in these elections. Long-term can be based on a minimum of three years’ residence, as in South Korea.</p>
<p>Expanding the vote in these ways will make Australia a leader as a democratic and inclusive migrant nation.</p>
<p><em>This article draws upon a longer <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2022federalelection/Submissions">submission</a> to the inquiry of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters into the 2022 federal election</em>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: this article previously stated that resident non-citizens can vote in NSW council elections. This is incorrect and has been removed.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joo-Cheong Tham has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Council of Trade Unions, European Trade Union Institute, International IDEA and the New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption. He is a Director of the Centre for Public Integrity; the Victorian Division Assistant Secretary (Academic Staff) of the National Tertiary Education Union; and was formerly the Deputy Chair of the Migrant Workers Centre.</span></em></p>Permanent residents can vote in New Zealand. So why not here?Joo-Cheong Tham, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1922172022-10-12T12:18:57Z2022-10-12T12:18:57ZChallenges to voters are growing before the midterms – and have a long history as a way of keeping down the Black vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489128/original/file-20221011-20-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C17%2C5973%2C3934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A GOP plan means that voters may be challenged on their right to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/michigan-residents-their-ballots-in-the-michigan-primary-news-photo/1242271776?phrase=voting%20ballots&adppopup=true">Matthew Hatcher/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voters who want to cast their ballot on Election Day this November may be in for an unpleasant surprise – the very real possibility that they will be unable to vote.</p>
<p>That’s because any registered voter can challenge the right of another voter, or group of voters, to cast a ballot by alleging that they are not qualified to do so.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.sos.wa.gov/_assets/elections/voter-registration-challenge-form.pdf">Potential challenges range from</a> the wrong address on a voter’s registration to not being old enough to vote to having been barred from voting as a felon. Once a challenge is made, election officials have to determine whether it is valid and whether a voter should be removed from the list of eligible voters.</p>
<p>State and local election officials have already had an unusually busy year dealing with voting challenges. In many places, they have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/us/politics/election-activists-voter-challenges.html">flooded</a> with them.</p>
<p>The Associated Press <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-voting-georgia-presidential-florida-dfbe7f00418a35c70c9d53fa3a260111">reported</a> on Sept. 17, 2022, that in one Iowa county, election officials who had received “three voter challenges over the previous 15 years” got 119 challenges over a two-day period. </p>
<p>This year, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/georgia-county-validates-thousands-voters-challenged-by-trump-allies-2022-09-22/">Georgia has been</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/us/politics/election-activists-voter-challenges.html">ground zero for such efforts</a>. Eight counties have received complaints seeking to remove 65,000 people from their lists of registered voters. In 2021, True the Vote, a self-described election integrity group, <a href="https://www.news4jax.com/news/georgia/2020/12/19/group-says-its-challenging-residency-of-364k-georgia-voters/">led an effort that challenged 364,000 voters</a> across all of Georgia’s 159 counties. </p>
<p>Such challenges don’t happen only before Election Day; <a href="https://www.nass.org/sites/default/files/surveys/2020-01/state-laws-poll-watchers-challengers-Jan2020.pdf">39 states allow</a> similar challenges to occur on Election Day itself. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/01/gop-contest-elections-tapes-00035758">A video obtained by Politico</a> shows a GOP staffer in Michigan explaining how Republicans will, the reporter writes, “install party-trained volunteers prepared to challenge voters at Democratic-majority polling places.” </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of a chart describing how to get involved in voter challenges." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489137/original/file-20221011-10401-7r5061.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The website of conservative group True the Vote features this description of an effort to use citizens to review ‘potentially ineligible records for local review through a process often referred to as a voter challenge.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iv3.us/">Screenshot from True the Vote</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Trump effect</h2>
<p>In 2020, then-President Donald Trump urged <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/30/918766323/trumps-calls-for-poll-watchers-raises-fears-about-voter-intimidation">his supporters to file such challenges</a> in places where he claimed that there might be fraudulent voting. </p>
<p>During that year’s first presidential debate, Trump singled out Philadelphia, a longtime Democratic stronghold with a large Black population. He <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-asked-supporters-watch-polls-how-states-are-countering-fears-n1244569">called on</a> supporters to “go into the polls and watch very carefully … because bad things happen in Philadelphia. Bad things.”</p>
<p>The practice of citizens’ challenging others’ right to vote <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/challenging-someone-elses-voter-eligibility-shouldnt-be-so-easy-but-it-is/">started long before Trump came onto the political scene</a>. It is, in fact, older than the American republic. Throughout U.S. history, citizen voting challenges have been a tool used by people seeking to disenfranchise others and secure partisan advantage for themselves.</p>
<h2>200 years of citizen challenges</h2>
<p>The first laws authorizing such challenges to others’ voting rights <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23154475?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents">can be traced back to the American Colonies</a>. In some of those places, the right to challenge was even written into royal charters, allowing challenges in any Colonial election. </p>
<p>For example, in 1742, when Rhode Island and Providence Plantations revised its charter, the changes <a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/e/evans/N04574.0001.001/1:122?rgn=div1;view=fulltext">included</a> this provision allowing eligible voters to question the voting rights of any other person: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“… if any Person in this Colony shall attempt to vote in any Election within the same, who is suspected not to be qualified as above said, it shall and may be lawful for any Person to inform the Moderator, or other Person who presides at such Election, that he hath Cause to doubt, that such suspected Person hath not a good Right to vote.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Soon after the American Revolution, newly formed states enacted laws giving their voters the right to challenge people who they believed <a href="https://www.ushistory.org/us/11b.asp">had supported the British</a> during the war. New York law <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=0N8TAAAAYAAJ&ots=g53Z4436EH&dq=Weed+Parsons+New+Yo&hl=en">allowed</a> citizens to object to anyone voting who had “not taken an active and decisive part in favor of the United States in the present war. …”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voter-challengers">full flourishing of this practice did not occur until after the Civil War</a>. Suddenly confronted with the prospect that freed slaves would vote and change the outcome of elections, <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/black-codes-and-jim-crow-laws">states in the Reconstruction South enacted</a> voter challenge statutes.</p>
<p>These laws fostered a kind of <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/blogs/5445-vigilantism-or-the-birth-of-the-racial-state">vigilante justice</a>, in which citizens could police the electoral behavior of others in the name of preventing fraudulent voting. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/voter-fraud-used-to-be-rampant-now-an-anomaly">Such vigilantism was</a> one tool among many to intimidate freed slaves and keep them from casting ballots on Election Day.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A newspaper clipping with the headline 'Voters challenged in North Carolina' describes challenges to 150 'colored voters' for 'improper registration.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489132/original/file-20221011-11-ypazsx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A brief item describing voter challenges to 150 ‘colored voters’ in The Daily State Journal of Alexandria, Va., on July 29, 1872.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn84024670/1872-07-29/ed-1/seq-1/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Political parties and voting challenges</h2>
<p>Despite their tainted history, laws allowing citizens to make both preelection and Election Day challenges persisted through the 20th and into the 21st century. <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voter-challengers">The Brennan Center, a progressive think tank, notes</a> that in the early 20th century, several states reaffirmed, reenacted or refined their voter challenge laws, including Election Day challenges.</p>
<p>One example: In 1904, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=qARAAAAAYAAJ&dq=editions%3ALCCN80644883&l">Virginia reenacted</a> its Election Day challenge law and at the same time passed new poll tax and literacy tests for voting. Today, <a href="http://www.bazelon.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2016_Voter-Challenge-Statutes-by-State.pdf">Virginia law says</a> that “any qualified voter and election officers” may object to anyone’s casting a vote on the grounds that they are not legally eligible to do so.</p>
<p>During the 20th century, <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/block-the-vote-voter-suppression-in-2020">political parties</a> promoted voting challenges.</p>
<p>One of the most <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/voter-suppression-halloween-heroes-rubik-s-cube-s-creator-watchdogs-legion-dolly-parton-s-songs-and-more-1.5782336/with-a-landmark-court-order-expired-a-1981-campaign-of-voter-suppression-might-point-to-trouble-in-2020-1.5782358">prominent of those efforts happened</a> during the 1981 campaign for New Jersey governor. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-encouragement-of-gop-poll-watchers-echoes-an-old-tactic-of-voter-intimidation-147234">Republican National Committee mailed sample ballots</a> to the homes of people in precincts with a high percentage of racial or ethnic minority voters. Voters whose sample ballots were returned as undeliverable, or because the voter had moved, were then subject to challenge.</p>
<p>The Democratic National Committee sued, alleging the Republicans’ effort violated the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The suit <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/opinion/624899/democratic-nat-committee-v-republican-nat/">resulted</a> in a court-approved agreement in which the Republican National Committee agreed to end this vote-challenging practice. </p>
<p>Before the 2004 election, the Republican Party announced another voter challenge plan. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7422-2004Oct28.html">It would station 3,500 people in polling places</a> in Democratic areas of Ohio to raise objections when Democratic voters showed up to vote. The party ultimately backed down, even though it <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/02/politics/campaign/gop-in-ohio-can-challenge-voters-at-polls.html">won a court fight over its plan</a>.</p>
<h2>What happens in an Election Day challenge?</h2>
<p>On Election Day any registered voter seeking to disqualify another person from voting must notify an election official of the desire to file a challenge. They may do so on the same grounds that are used in preelection challenges.</p>
<p>Such challenges raise real difficulties at the polls. In many states, challengers <a href="http://www.bazelon.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2016_Voter-Challenge-Statutes-by-State.pdf">do not have to submit evidence to substantiate their allegations</a>.</p>
<p>While voters get no advance notice that a challenge will be made, they may be required to provide documentation or swear on the spot that they are entitled to vote. </p>
<p>As Federal District Judge Donald Molloy <a href="https://cite.case.law/f-supp-2d/581/1077/">said</a> in a 2008 Montana election challenge case, “Voters might be intimidated, confused or even discouraged from voting upon receiving notice that their right to vote … has been challenged.”</p>
<p>And Election Day challenges put officials at polling places in a very difficult position. As the Brennan Center puts it, they are “under immense time pressure to decide challenges quickly. … As a result, they can be denied a full opportunity to thoroughly review every challenge and to verify the challenger’s allegations.” In some states <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/provisional-ballots.aspx">challenged voters may be allowed to cast provisional ballots</a> while the challenge is pending.</p>
<p>On Nov. 8, this nation may experience a surge of voters intimidated by Election Day challenges. Election officials may have to make hurried decisions. That’s a situation that threatens the very right to vote, a right that former President Ronald Reagan once <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/11/07/us/text-of-president-s-statement.html">called</a> “the most sacred right of free men and women … (and) the crown jewel of American liberties.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Austin Sarat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Nov. 8, the US may experience a surge of voters intimidated by Election Day challenges to their right to cast a ballot.Austin Sarat, William Nelson Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science, Amherst CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842222022-06-02T18:52:52Z2022-06-02T18:52:52ZImprisoned citizens face barriers to voting in Ontario<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466818/original/file-20220602-22-k1xuy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6709%2C4416&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thousands of imprisoned persons in Ontario faced barriers to voting in the June 2 provincial election. Many will also be explicitly barred from voting in the upcoming municipal elections in October.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Ontario citizens faced barriers to voting in the June 2 general election. In a process known as <a href="https://twitter.com/CPEPgroup/status/1529229408451833857?cxt=HHwWgsDR7e6C9bgqAAAA">disenfranchisement by process</a>, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2019018-eng.htm">thousands of imprisoned persons</a> in Ontario experience obstacles to voting. Many will also be <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/elections/voter-information/who-can-vote/">explicitly barred</a> from voting in the upcoming <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/municipal-elections">municipal elections in October</a>.</p>
<p>Enfranchisement refers to the rights of full citizenship, including the right to vote. Disenfranchisement, on the other hand, refers to the procedural roadblocks that prevent imprisoned people from being able to vote easily. </p>
<p>This is despite a <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/2010/index.do">2002 Supreme Court of Canada ruling</a> that affirmed imprisoned people have the right to vote under Section 3 of <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-12.html#:%7E:text=1%20The%20Canadian%20Charter%20of,a%20free%20and%20democratic%20society">the Charter of Rights and Freedoms</a>.</p>
<p>Crucially, disenfranchisement disproportionately impacts marginalized Canadians. <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-44567-6_5">Indigenous</a>, <a href="https://fernwoodpublishing.ca/book/policing-black-lives">Black</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137388476">disabled</a> and <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/prisons-of-poverty">poor</a> people are all imprisoned at higher rates, and are more likely to face barriers to voting because of disenfranchisement by process.</p>
<h2>Prisoners have the right to vote</h2>
<p>Scholars use the term <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1362480617731203">carceral citizens</a> to refer to people who are criminalized and face significant constraints to participating fully in social, economic and political life.</p>
<p>Issues that impact the general public are also issues that impact imprisoned people. As critical public policy and criminology scholars active in community work, we spoke with current and formerly imprisoned people to hear about how they experienced voting in Ontario’s prisons.</p>
<p>Interviewees told us the majority of imprisoned people return to their communities, so it is important for them to have a democratic voice and stake in the communities they return to. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a T-shirt and sweatpants leans over a table to fill out paperwork with a pen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466820/original/file-20220602-11-792gpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466820/original/file-20220602-11-792gpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466820/original/file-20220602-11-792gpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466820/original/file-20220602-11-792gpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466820/original/file-20220602-11-792gpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466820/original/file-20220602-11-792gpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466820/original/file-20220602-11-792gpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An inmate casts his ballot for the federal election at the Montréal Detention Centre in June 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CP PHOTO/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One recently released federally imprisoned person, and former chair of the inmate committee at Joyceville Institution, Kevin Belanger, shared his thoughts about why being allowed to vote is so crucial: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I think it’s very important for us to vote … it allows guys to feel, even a little bit, a part of society, to know that their vote counts. But we really are voting with a disadvantage because we are not educated on what is going on. This is because of many parties not realizing that if they want our vote, they need to send us something so we know their positions, because if not, we’re going to be guessing.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another recently released federally imprisoned person, James Ruston, shared his perspective about political engagement as a prisoner:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“As a long-term prisoner, I learned to regret the lack of mindful concern for the community in my past choices. In my exile, I came to believe in the value of social relationships that inspires an inclusive respect for a nurturing and collaborative social contract. Being supported to vote, to make decisions about my community, endears me to that community.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Barriers to voting</h2>
<p>Interviewees told us there are a variety of legislative, bureaucratic and procedural issues that act as roadblocks to voting inside Ontario prisons. </p>
<p>Ruston said that insufficient communication from correctional facilities can prevent prisoners from even knowing how to register in the first place. Belanger said that barriers to literacy can also prevent some imprisoned people from accessing this important information.</p>
<p>When an election is called, a prison staff member is appointed as an <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=bkg&document=ec90545&lang=e">election liaison</a>. They are responsible for <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=bkg&document=ec90545&lang=e">advertising the election and registering voters</a>. Imprisoned people must fill out their ballots in the <a href="https://www.thewhig.com/2018/06/07/inmates-exercise-their-right-to-vote">presence of the liaison officer</a>, and are not permitted privacy when voting.</p>
<p>The final deadline for registration occurs before the deadline for the general public. Those who do not register in time are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/on-inmate-voting-day-prisoners-plan-legal-case-over-2018-ontario-vote-1.5314180">barred from voting</a>. This happened to several women in a Kitchener correctional institution in 2018 when their elections liaison officer <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/on-inmate-voting-day-prisoners-plan-legal-case-over-2018-ontario-vote-1.5314180">failed to hand out voter registration forms in time</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="The outside of a correctional institution" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466821/original/file-20220602-22-53c8hc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466821/original/file-20220602-22-53c8hc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=761&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466821/original/file-20220602-22-53c8hc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=761&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466821/original/file-20220602-22-53c8hc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=761&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466821/original/file-20220602-22-53c8hc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=956&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466821/original/file-20220602-22-53c8hc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=956&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466821/original/file-20220602-22-53c8hc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=956&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A group of inmates from Grand Valley Institution for Women were denied the ability to vote in the 2018 provincial election because of an administrative error.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Geoff Robins</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those who do register still might not get to cast their votes. Seventy-seven per cent of people in provincial prisons are in remand, meaning they have not been sentenced and may be imprisoned for a short amount of time. Prisoners who have registered to vote inside prisons, but are released before the voting date, are <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/90e06#BK128">not permitted to vote by the regular process</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2015 Canadian federal election there was a 50.5 per cent turnout of imprisoned voters compared to 68 per cent in the public — and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-votes-2019-voting-incarcerated-house-arrest-1.5285711">7.5 per cent of votes from imprisoned people were rejected</a>. By comparison, only <a href="https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2015app/41/table3E.html">0.7 per cent were rejected</a> overall in Canada. </p>
<p>Further, if there are any delays and special ballots do not arrive to be processed in time, <a href="https://www.thepost.on.ca/news/national/elections-canada-205000-mail-in-ballots-were-not-counted">they will not be counted</a>, as happened with 205,000 ballots in the 2022 election. </p>
<h2>Pandemic-specific barriers</h2>
<p>Pandemic restrictions have resulted in a number of unique enfranchisement barriers. Since there are still <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/correctional-service/campaigns/covid-19/inmate-testing.html#O2">active COVID-19 cases</a> and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/correctional-service/campaigns/covid-19/visits/status.html">restrictions</a> at Ontario prisons, these barriers are ongoing.</p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/correctional-service/campaigns/covid-19/plans-preparation/integrated-risk-management-framework.html">Shaping the New Normal Risk Management Framework</a> (available through <a href="https://ruor.uottawa.ca/handle/10393/43358">freedom of information</a>), items are not to be shared between imprisoned people during times of COVID-19 risk. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Canada Correctional Facilities sign for the Atlantic Institution" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466823/original/file-20220602-14-ovq588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466823/original/file-20220602-14-ovq588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466823/original/file-20220602-14-ovq588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466823/original/file-20220602-14-ovq588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466823/original/file-20220602-14-ovq588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466823/original/file-20220602-14-ovq588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466823/original/file-20220602-14-ovq588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A group of imprisoned people in New Brunswick were unable to vote in the 2019 federal election because of an institutional lockdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition, non-profits that support prospective voters have sometimes been barred from doing their work inside prisons. This was the case in <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510015401">Saskatchewan for Elizabeth Fry Society staff</a>, who were unable to enter prisons to help imprisoned people register to vote in 2020. </p>
<p>Though <a href="https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/prisoners-say-they-were-denied-their-constitutional-right-to-vote/">Elections Canada</a> states prisoners cannot be denied an opportunity to vote, even for security reasons, some prisoners at the Atlantic Institution were <a href="https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/prisoners-say-they-were-denied-their-constitutional-right-to-vote/">prevented from voting in the 2019 federal election</a> due to an institutional lockdown. </p>
<h2>Recommendations</h2>
<p>The majority of people in prison <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/houses-of-hate-how-canadas-prison-system-is-broken/">do not need to be there</a>. During parts of the pandemic, the number of people imprisoned in Ontario decreased <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510015401&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.7&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2016+%2F+2017&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2020+%2F+2021&referencePeriods=20160101%2C20200101">from 8,113 to 6,405</a>.</p>
<p>But the number of imprisoned people in provincial jails has <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-inmate-advocates-warn-jail-populations-rising-again-in-some-provinces/">risen since</a>. In addition to decreasing the number of people imprisoned, we need to do better ahead of the fast approaching municipal elections in October. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/news/prisoner-voting-ban-unconstitutional-contradicts-nova-scotias-commitment-to-end-systemic-racism-expert-508603/">Barriers to voting in municipal elections</a> are even worse. <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/96m32">Ontario’s Municipal Elections Act</a> explicitly prohibits imprisoned people from voting. This act must be amended to allow imprisoned people to vote in October. </p>
<p>We call on respective governments to ensure that the relevant election agencies run the vote in prisons effectively. Elections Ontario must ensure imprisoned people are provided information on their candidates, registration assistance and facilitation by Elections Ontario employees on voting day. Voting is a right; everyone should have equitable access to it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184222/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda Mussell receives funding from SSHRC. She is affiliated with the Criminalization and Punishment Education Project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Evans receives funding from SSHRC. She is affiliated with the Toronto Prisoners' Rights Project. </span></em></p>Elections Ontario must ensure imprisoned people are provided information on their candidates, registration assistance and facilitation by Elections Ontario employees on voting day.Linda Mussell, Postdoctoral fellow, Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaJessica Evans, Assistant Professor, Sociology, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484412020-11-02T19:07:50Z2020-11-02T19:07:50ZAs US election day nears, the outcome won’t be simply a matter of political will<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366949/original/file-20201102-13-1018rwa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=197%2C5%2C3796%2C1988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It has been billed as the most significant US election in generations, and with nearly 100 million votes already cast, it is well underway. An estimated 50 million more votes are expected on the last day of in-person voting on Tuesday (Wednesday Australian time), with mail-in ballots still making their way through the postal service, including from overseas and military voters.</p>
<p>It is not only the White House up for grabs, but all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/30/us-senate-elections-the-key-races-that-will-determine-power-in-washington">35 of the 100-seat Senate</a>. In addition, 11 gubernatorial (state governor) races, various state legislatures, and a plethora of local judges, sheriffs, school boards and supervisory roles are also on the ballot. A quick glance at a US ballot illustrates how America has more democratically elected positions per capita than any other country in the world.</p>
<h2>A turbulent four years of Trump</h2>
<p>This election will be one for the history books. The White House incumbent, <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-has-become-the-third-president-in-us-history-to-be-impeached-hes-unlikely-to-be-convicted-128302">impeached on abuse of power charges</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/15/trump-wont-cooperate-with-congressional-oversight-here-are-congresss-options/">litigating against Congressional oversight</a> of potential financial conflicts of interest, has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-peaceful-transition-if-he-loses-get-rid-ballots-there-n1240896">refused to commit</a> to a peaceful transfer of power.</p>
<p>In the year following more than 1,000 former federal prosecutors confirming President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/former-federal-prosecutors-trump-indicted-wasnt-president-1439716">would be indicted</a> if not for the current immunity the Oval Office provides him, Trump has stepped up rhetoric that any election that he does not win is “rigged”.</p>
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<p>Then came the “October surprise” from the New York Times that the president has at least <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/us/trump-taxes.html">US$400 million in personally guaranteed loans</a> due over the next possible term and previously undisclosed Chinese bank accounts. This has brought the president’s priorities under intense scrutiny alongside a flailing economy and federal mismanagement of the COVID pandemic response.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-has-changed-america-by-making-everything-about-politics-and-politics-all-about-himself-146839">Trump has changed America by making everything about politics, and politics all about himself</a>
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<p>Citing these concerns, formal endorsements of Trump’s political opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, have come from unlikely places. Republican national security veterans, GOP governors and nonpartisan communities of scientists and physicians have endorsed Biden, some for the first time in the history of their organisations.</p>
<p>A group of 73 high-level former GOP US National security officials from administrations spanning Reagan to Bush Jr wrote in an open letter that Trump is “dangerously unfit to serve another term”, citing his undermining of the rule of law, failure to lead Americans through the pandemic, and damage to the US’s global reputation.</p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.defendingdemocracytogether.org/national-security">780 prominent Republicans and Democrats</a>, including former defence secretaries, ambassadors, and retired military brass, also decried Trump, writing that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] thanks to his disdainful attitude and his failures, our allies no longer trust or respect us and our enemies no longer fear us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A chorus of Trump’s own former administration officials have joined <a href="https://lincolnproject.us/">The Lincoln Project</a>, <a href="https://rvat.org/">Republican Voters against Trump</a>, <a href="https://43alumniforjoebiden.com/">43 for Biden</a> (featuring members of the George W. Bush administration) and former staffers of late senator John McCain, to mount powerful testimonials targeting Trump’s base, independents and new voters.</p>
<p>The Biden camp has stressed a return to decency and cooperation, a <em>United</em> States of America. A popular ad encapsulates the message,</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1318753877076881408">There is only one America</a>. No Democratic rivers, no Republican mountains. Just this great land and all that’s possible on it with a fresh start. There is so much we can do if we choose to take on problems and not each other and choose a president who brings out our best.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Other “anyone but Trump” ads target voters who may have supported him in 2016 as a fiesty outsider, but have tired of the noise. </p>
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<p>Ads, endorsements and of course polls are potentially useful indicators during the final week of voting. But what are some other trends that will likely impact electoral turnout and the results? Here are a few to look out for. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-remains-strong-favourite-for-us-election-queensland-labor-set-for-increased-majority-148001">Biden remains strong favourite for US election; Queensland Labor set for increased majority</a>
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<h2>Millennials</h2>
<p>Against the tight margins of the 2016 election in a handful of decisive states, a new generation of voters has emerged who may tip the balance of power. They drove <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-2018-midterm-wave-a-historic-10-point-jump-in-turnout-among-young-people-106505">higher turnout in the 2018 midterm election</a> and are not only voting but running and winning office. Enter the millennials.</p>
<p>The US is on the cusp of a generational shift. This is the first US presidential election in which the millennial generation is now the largest voting-age cohort, displacing the baby boomers who have held the title since the 1970s.</p>
<p>Younger millennials, who may have spent the previous presidential election in a high school walk out, or participated in the March for Our Lives for gun safety, are now eligible to vote. Older millennials, who are approaching 40, grew up with high school shootings and are now watching their own young children do lockdown drills, rewarded with a candy if they remain quietly hidden in the toilet with their feet up to avoid detection.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mqX7R76j_9Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Amid concern about growing economic inequality, the millennials will likely be the first generation to be less financially secure than their parents, and the most likely to compare themselves with international OECD peers who enjoy universal healthcare, gun control and better financial support during the pandemic.</p>
<p>None of these issues is well represented by the current administration, and so Trump’s approval rating hovers around 28% among that <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/10/09/perceptions-of-donald-trump-and-joe-biden/">age group</a>.</p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/jun/03/hillary-clinton/yes-donald-trump-did-call-climate-change-chinese-h">has called climate change</a> a Chinese conspiracy to undermine American manufacturing, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/27/us-paris-climate-accord-exit-what-it-means">pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement</a>, and is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-26/trump-administration-urges-court-to-topple-affordable-care-act">suing to eliminate</a> the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”).</p>
<p>On these crucial issues, different informational diets between generations, political parties, and even families could drive very different voting patterns. </p>
<p>But the millennial vote could be decisive.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366926/original/file-20201102-19-7qrio8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366926/original/file-20201102-19-7qrio8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366926/original/file-20201102-19-7qrio8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366926/original/file-20201102-19-7qrio8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366926/original/file-20201102-19-7qrio8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366926/original/file-20201102-19-7qrio8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366926/original/file-20201102-19-7qrio8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young people will have a big say in the outcome of the 2020 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Josh Edelson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disinformation</h2>
<p>If “post-truth” was the Oxford Dictionary’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37995600">Word of the Year in 2016</a>, “disinformation” is in the running for 2020.</p>
<p>Disinformation – the deliberate spreading of false or misleading information in order to deceive – is a growing problem in democratic elections. It was a key theme in the Republican-chaired Senate Intelligence Committee <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-report-russian-interference-2016-us-election/">report into Russian interference</a> in the 2016 election.</p>
<p>These reports documented key disinformation techniques, narratives and purpose. Akin to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/01/active-measures-review-donald-trump-russia-thomas-rida">Russian “active measures”</a>, disinformation is used to undermine authoritative sources of information by blurring the line between fact and faction.</p>
<p>The most popular narrative, according to this report, was the myth of “voter fraud”. </p>
<p>While the 2016 disinformation campaign centred on voter fraud, the 2020 version <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/politics/russia-intel-bulletin-mail-in-voting-warning/index.html">targets mail-in voting</a>. These ballots, cast in the middle of COVID-19, are at the heart of competing narratives about the pandemic itself.</p>
<p>In this election, we’ve seen a <a href="https://www.ghsn.org/Policy-Reports/">catalogue of disinformation</a> about COVID-19. While scientists, physicians and public health authorities have repeatedly warned the public and officials to take action to protect public health, the Trump administration has generally downplayed its severity. </p>
<p>Calling it “just the flu”, Trump said the problem impacts “virtually nobody”, even after nearly a quarter of a million Americans died. Recent research has shown Trump himself is one of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/10/05/trump-covid-19-coronavirus-disinformation-facebook-twitter-election/3632194001/">the largest superspreaders of disinformation</a> about COVID-19.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oYcHhM6ODbw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Some of that disinformation will affect how people cast their ballot. While 19 states have expanded mail-in ballot options as a result of the pandemic, others have made voting harder by closing voting places while not expanding alternate options. Texas, for instance, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/05/29/864143739/texas-voters-are-caught-in-the-middle-of-a-battle-over-mail-in-voting">refused to recognise</a> COVID-19 concerns as a valid reason for those under 65 to request a mail-in ballot, with South Carolina only recently reversing a similar restriction.</p>
<p>Disinformation about mail-in ballots is likely to feature in court challenges. Trump has insisted the results be known on election day, which would necessarily exclude mail-in ballots postmarked in time but not yet received through the mail, including those cast by overseas military voters. He has repeatedly signalled that his appointees in the judicial system (which number in the hundreds) <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/trump-wants-supreme-court-help-090001580.html?guccounter=1">will help secure his win</a>. </p>
<p>While it is unprecedented for a president to attack electoral integrity, state level actions are also important to consider.</p>
<h2>Disenfranchisement</h2>
<p>Voting in the US is not easy to summarise. Devoid of democracy sausages and a non-partisan federal elections commission, elections are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/22/659591998/6-takeaways-from-georgias-use-it-or-lose-it-voter-purge-investigation">run at the state and county level</a>, from voter rolls to polling locations and everything in between.</p>
<p>Each state is in charge of its own election, and there are nearly as many systems as there are states. Five states, including Oregon, vote entirely by mail. Five other states vote entirely on machine, including Georgia, with no traditional paper audit trail. Other state variations include the option of early in-person voting, whether voting places are open on a Sunday, how far in advance you must register to vote, and requirements for voter ID.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366938/original/file-20201102-17-2t3ipm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366938/original/file-20201102-17-2t3ipm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366938/original/file-20201102-17-2t3ipm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366938/original/file-20201102-17-2t3ipm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366938/original/file-20201102-17-2t3ipm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366938/original/file-20201102-17-2t3ipm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366938/original/file-20201102-17-2t3ipm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Each US state has its own voting requirements, arrangements and ballots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Justin Lane</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each state’s ballots look different, with users selecting their choices via handmarked bubble sheets, hole punches or hanging chads, the latter made famous in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/12/666812854/the-florida-recount-of-2000-a-nightmare-that-goes-on-haunting">the 2000 recount in Florida</a> that delivered George W. Bush his first term.</p>
<p>One of the quirks of the US voting system is the electoral college. The college is essentially a distribution of electoral votes among the states according to population size, updated after every 10-year census.</p>
<p>In 2020, several large states are in the spotlight as toss-ups, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/20/texas-house-race-blue-democrat-2020-429826">including Texas</a>, which carries a prize of 38 electoral votes in the race to 270. It will be one to watch on election day, with early voter turnout already surpassing its 2016 total. It is also the site of one of the most blatant attempts at disenfranchisement, with the GOP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/01/texas-supreme-court-rejects-republican-effort-to-toss-votes">failing in its attempt</a> to stop more than 120,000 ballots already cast in one of its largest counties. </p>
<p>Until recently, states were not allowed to make changes to voting procedures without judicial oversight. Plans to close significant numbers of polling places in certain districts, for instance, had to go through pre-clearance processes. However, these protections were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/25/shelby-county-anniversary-voting-rights-act-consequences">dismantled by</a> a US Supreme Court ruling in 2013. This year’s presidential election will be only the second without those protections, and voter disenfranchisement could result.</p>
<p>One key method of disenfranchisement could be mail-in ballots. In an interview in August, Trump said he <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/politics/trump-usps-funding-comments-2020-election/index.html">planned to block funding</a> for the US postal service to prevent increased voting by mail. A Trump appointee to the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-24/dejoy-tells-judge-mail-sorting-machines-can-t-be-reassembled">head of the postal service</a> in July recently oversaw the destruction and dismantling of 700 mail processing machines, leading to more delays. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-controversy-around-the-us-postal-service-and-how-might-it-affect-the-election-144663">Explainer: what is the controversy around the US postal service and how might it affect the election?</a>
</strong>
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<hr>
<p>Simple polls of voting intention do not capture voter disenfranchisement and intimidation.</p>
<p>Intimidation tactics have been increasing across several key states. In Pennsylvania, New Jersey and North Carolina, official Republican party mailers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/11/06/vote-shaming-messages-are-everywhere-people-are-getting-annoyed/">warned voters their voting history</a> is a matter of public record.</p>
<p>In New Mexico, the <a href="https://www.salon.com/2016/10/17/new-mexico-republicans-threaten-albuquerque-residents-your-neighbors-will-know-if-democrats-win/">GOP sent mailers</a> that read</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When the Democrats win the White House and you didn’t do your part to stop it, your neighbors will know. Voting is a matter of public record.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Experts warn of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/us-election-radical-right-extremism-domestic-terrorism-letter-experts-b1457528.html">potential violence</a> and rioting after the result. Growing polarisation, extremist groups such as QAnon threatening the use of force, and the availability of tactical weapons are all warning signs.</p>
<p>This year has seen more than 8 million more gun purchases than 2019, and scholars warn of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/22/926339006/heres-where-the-threat-of-militia-activity-around-the-elections-is-the-highest">increasing militia activity</a>. Trump has publicly praised supporters who commit violence, including the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/31/trump-defends-kenosha-shooter-kyle-rittenhouse-arguing-self-defense/3451006001/">Kenosha shooter</a>. </p>
<p>International allies are also concerned. After Trump used armed guards to teargas peaceful protestors in Washington DC (which Australia <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-news-crew-a-bit-worse-for-wear-after-us-police-bashing">watched live</a> as its reporters were bashed on air), the Scottish Parliament <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/scotland-votes-against-exporting-police-gear-united-states-george-floyd-2020-6">voted to suspend exports of riot shields</a>, tear gas and rubber bullets to the United States.</p>
<p>Australia recently updated its <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/americas/united-states-america">“do not travel” advisory</a> to the US, citing civil unrest around the election.</p>
<p>Regardless of the outcome of the election, some of the trends may continue beyond Inauguration Day on January 21, 2021, affecting not just the US but its relationships with allies and adversaries alike.</p>
<p>Australia would do well to watch carefully and wait for the final results.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-biden-presidency-mean-for-australia-148516">What would a Biden presidency mean for Australia?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148441/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer S. Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Disenfranchisement and disinformation have been rife in the 2020 election - and may continue to play significant roles in its aftermath.Jennifer S. Hunt, Lecturer, National Security College, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1441572020-08-21T12:39:56Z2020-08-21T12:39:56ZMail-in voting does not cause fraud, but judges are buying the GOP’s argument that it does<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353940/original/file-20200820-20-1rm25jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C44%2C4979%2C3364&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters against passage of a bill to expand mail-in voting during a Nevada Republican Party demonstration, August 4, 2020, in Las Vegas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-including-lisa-burgess-and-romeo-jacinto-both-of-news-photo/1263996626?adppopup=true">Ethan Miller/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/19/politics/trump-campaign-new-jersey-mail-in-ballots/index.html">filed lawsuits</a> recently against New Jersey and Nevada to prevent expansive vote-by-mail efforts in those states. </p>
<p>These high-profile lawsuits make the same argument that Republicans have made in many lesser-known lawsuits that were filed around the country during the primary season. In all of these lawsuits, Republicans argue that voting by mail perpetuates fraud – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/mail-in-voting-explained.html">an argument President Donald Trump makes daily</a>, on various media platforms. </p>
<p>Yet, study after study has shown that there is no basis for these claims. Indeed, the opposite is true – <a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=3818e388-c0af-42bb-8c1d-ac15b91e9fab&sp=1&sr=1&url=%2Fresearch-on-voting-by-mail-says-its-safe-from-fraud-and-disease-141847">voting by mail is rarely subject to fraud</a>. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/technology/twitter-trump-mail-in-ballots.html">Twitter has even slapped warnings on President Trump’s tweets</a> that link vote-by-mail to voter fraud, because they perpetuate false information.</p>
<p>Courts, for the most part, have sided with Republicans, and in some cases even adopted the unsubstantiated fraud assertions. The effect of these rulings has been that Americans had to vote in person during the global pandemic, risking their lives. By filing these lawsuits, Republicans are forcing voters to choose between being safe and exercising their fundamental right to vote in November. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Voter filling out a Virginia ;vote-by-mail application." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353892/original/file-20200820-20-vum97u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lawsuits mounted by the GOP across the country aim to stop the use or expansion of mail-in voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-illustration-photo-shows-a-virginia-resident-filling-news-photo/1227941977?adppopup=true">Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Suits span the country</h2>
<p>Here is a representative sample of these lawsuits:</p>
<p>• In April, when public health officials were not entirely sure how COVID-19 spread, and stay-at-home orders were in place throughout the country, the Republican-led Wisconsin legislature <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/06/wisconsin-governor-orders-stop-to-in-person-voting-on-eve-of-election-168527">sued</a> to stop Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ executive order extending voting-by-mail deadlines for the primary election. Wisconsin’s Supreme Court <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/wisconsin-governor-suspends-in-person-voting-in-tuesdays-elections-amid-escalating-coronavirus-fears/2020/04/06/9d658e2a-781c-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html">sided with the Republicans</a>. </p>
<p>• That victory was not enough. In a parallel suit, Wisconsin Republicans secured an opinion from the U.S. Supreme Court, which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/unexpected-outcome-in-wisconsin-tens-of-thousands-of-ballots-that-arrived-after-voting-day-were-counted-thanks-to-court-decisions/2020/05/03/20c036f0-8a59-11ea-9dfd-990f9dcc71fc_story.html">held</a> that all mail-in ballots had to be postmarked by primary election day. Dissenting, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/supreme-court-voting-wisconsin-virus.html">stated</a>: “The Court’s order, I fear, will result in massive disenfranchisement.”</p>
<p>• In Texas, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton argued in <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/13/texas-ag-seeks-mail-election-ballot-ruling-state-supreme-court/">multiple lawsuits</a> that voting by mail should be available only to actual COVID-19 victims, and not to voters who feared being infected at polling sites. After initially <a href="https://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2020-04-17/judge-sulak-issues-vote-by-mail-injunction/">losing in court</a>, Paxton publicly threatened, <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/vote-by-mail-complaint-crime-ken-paxton-ag-dallas-15261586.php">in writing</a>, to arrest and prosecute any election official who distributed information about voting by mail. This left election officials in a quandary because Paxton’s threat conflicted with a state court order that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/texas-voting-by-mail-disability-coronavirus/index.html">expanded Texas’s vote-by-mail measures</a> to all voters. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/17048773/90/texas-democratic-party-v-abbott-governor-of-texas/">federal trial court</a> called Paxton’s threats “voter intimidation.” Undaunted, Paxton successfully appealed both the federal and state court decisions that ruled against him. Both the Texas Supreme Court and the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Paxton though, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear appeals of those cases, allowing those judgments to stand.</p>
<p>In ruling for the Republicans, the Texas Supreme Court <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/texas/supreme-court/2020/20-0394.html">stated</a>: “For the population overall, contracting COVID-19 in general is highly improbable” and that “a lack of immunity alone could not be a likely cause of injury to health from voting in person.”</p>
<p>But, by July 9, primary day, Texas was in the grips of a massive COVID-19 crisis. For each of the 10 days preceding the primary election, there were record numbers of COVID-19-related <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article243938747.html">hospitalizations</a> in the state. Houston hospitals were in danger of running out of hospital beds. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott urged everyone to stay home unless it was an emergency, and issued executive orders reclosing the state. While the pandemic raged around them, Texas voters had to vote in person. </p>
<p>• In Missouri, lawsuits by advocacy groups, including the NAACP, sought to <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/missouri-absentee.pdf">expand vote by mail efforts</a>. A state court sided with Republican officials who vigorously opposed the suit and held that “fear of illness” does not qualify as a reason to receive a mail-in ballot. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An official ballot drop box in Miami, Florida." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353893/original/file-20200820-22-5qhyt0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A drop box in Miami, Florida, for mail-in ballots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-official-miami-dade-county-ballot-drop-box-is-seen-on-news-photo/1265280765?adppopup=true">Joe Raede/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>• In Iowa, after a successful vote-by-mail primary on June 2, the Republican legislature <a href="https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/iowa-senate-bill-would-limit-election-officials-ability-change-voting-process-during-pandemic#stream/0">tried</a> to prevent the Iowa Secretary of State from running future elections using mail-in ballots. This was not a lawsuit, but mirrors many of the legal actions mounted by the GOP across the country. In response, a bipartisan group of local election officials sent a letter to the legislature, stating: “The 2020 primary was very successful, based on a variety of metrics largely due to the steps taken by the Secretary. Counties experienced record or near-record turnout. Election Day went very smoothly. Results were rapidly available. Why would the state want to cripple the process that led to such success?” </p>
<h2>Falsehoods become law</h2>
<p>Several of the courts discussed above have nonetheless embraced the idea that mail-in voting leads to fraud. </p>
<p>For example, in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which sanctioned the Texas Republicans’ opposition to voting by mail, Judge James C. Ho wrote a gratuitous supplemental concurring opinion, focusing solely on <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca5/20-50407/20-50407-2020-06-04.html">mail-in ballot fraud</a>. Similarly, the Missouri trial court that refused to expand the pool of voters who could vote by mail discussed voter fraud at length, to justify its decision. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Without providing any explanation or evidence to the contrary, these decisions essentially erase scientific findings, cementing into law unsubstantiated and discredited claims linking voting by mail to fraud. This gives these faulty legal decisions tremendous power to impact how Americans vote this November, regardless of the strength of the COVID-19 virus.</p>
<p>Judges who preside over newly filed Republican National Committee and Trump campaign lawsuits will undoubtedly look to those opinions because of the similarity in claims. While those decisions do not have to be followed to the letter in New Jersey and Nevada, they still represent a body of law that judges will need to consider. Even flawed judicial opinions have the power to shape the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Penny Venetis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In lawsuits across the country, the GOP and Trump campaign are trying to stop or dramatically curtail mail-in voting. Courts have largely sided with them, threatening massive disenfranchisement.Penny Venetis, Clinical Professor of Law, Director of the International Human Rights Clinic, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1262962019-11-01T21:40:57Z2019-11-01T21:40:57ZMississippi governor’s race taking place under Jim Crow-era rules after judge refuses to block them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299870/original/file-20191101-88378-15n5r7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A lawsuit alleges that the way Mississippi will elect its governor on Tuesday is racist.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit/e9d74964a6ce469bbb033ed69d0eba4d/256/0">AP/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal judge ruled on Nov. 1 that he would not stop Mississippi voters from electing a governor on Tuesday under an old, Jim Crow-era election law that a <a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6102478/Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit.pdf">civil rights lawsuit</a> argues perpetuates “white supremacy” and violates the principle of “one-person, one-vote.” </p>
<p>U.S. District Judge Daniel Jordan <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5beeefdbf407b4c074e45ec6/t/5dbc5e0e74c31f282750e68a/1572625934211/Order.pdf">wrote that he had “grave concern”</a> about the unconstitutionality of part of the law. But with the election nearing on Nov. 5, he ruled that time was too short to issue an injunction altering the state’s voting scheme for statewide officers.</p>
<p>Under the state’s current law, a successful candidate for governor of Mississippi must win an outright majority of the popular vote – and a majority of the state’s 122 House districts. </p>
<p>If no candidate does both, the state House gets to select the next governor, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Article_V,_Mississippi_Constitution#Section_141">regardless of who got the most votes</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-african-american-has-won-statewide-office-in-mississippi-in-129-years-heres-why-118319">No African American has been elected statewide since 1890</a>.</p>
<h2>Similar laws once common</h2>
<p>Four African Americans filed a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6102478-Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit.html">federal civil rights lawsuit</a> in May, asking the court to invalidate the law. Republican legislators in Mississippi defended the law, saying the plaintiffs provide “<a href="https://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/18/hosemann-gunn-say-racial-hostility-in-jim-crow-era-not-reason-to-throw-out-election-provision-today">nothing more than conjecture</a>” that they would be harmed by this election method.</p>
<p>Media coverage of the lawsuit has emphasized, as one story noted, that “no Mississippi candidate who won the most votes for a statewide office has been prevented from taking office because of the other <a href="https://www.apnews.com/3ad297610e314e4a863ebb521b98efd0">requirements</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://sites.northwestern.edu/gcohnpostar/">As a historian of 19th-century voting rights in the U.S.</a>, I believe this analysis ignores the history of anti-democratic gubernatorial election laws.</p>
<p>Mississippi now faces its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/09/03/the-trailer-mississippi-has-a-surprisingly-competitive-gubernatorial-race/5d6d2a46602ff171a5d7338d/">first close gubernatorial election</a> since <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/04/us/tight-governor-s-race-will-be-decided-by-mississippi-house-of-representatives.html">1999</a>. </p>
<p>Candidates are from three parties as well as one independent. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Attorney_General_of_Mississippi">State Attorney General</a> <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_Hood">Jim Hood</a>, a Democrat; <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Lieutenant_Governor_of_Mississippi">Lt. Gov.</a> <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Tate_Reeves">Tate Reeves</a>, a Republican; <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Bob_Hickingbottom">Bob Hickingbottom</a>, Constitution Party; and independent <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/David_Singletary">David Singletary</a> are all competing in the election. </p>
<p>In the 19th century, many states had laws similar to Mississippi’s. They were intended to entrench the rule of the party in power.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder supported the filing of the Mississippi lawsuit, saying ‘count all the votes and the person who gets the greatest number of votes wins.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit/f36cd2804dfb40adbcd61a97a952ce5c/3/0">AP/Seth Wenig</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disenfranchisement by law</h2>
<p>The gubernatorial election law dates to 1890, when it was drafted into Mississippi’s <a href="http://mshistorynow.mdah.state.ms.us/articles/103/index.php?s=extra&id=270">constitution</a> by a nearly <a href="http://mshistorynow.mdah.state.ms.us/articles/103/mississippi-constitution-of-1890">all-white convention</a>. </p>
<p>The Southern Democrats in charge of the convention were intent on <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/grant-kkk/">removing African Americans from politics</a>. The constitution they crafted subjected prospective voters to a literacy test and poll tax – <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=7aM7DwAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=mississippi%201890%20constitution&pg=PR3#v=onepage&q&f=false">effectively disenfranchising nearly all African Americans</a>.</p>
<p>They included the majority vote and state House district provision in the constitution as a backstop to preserve white control of <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/154496/mississippi-quotes-john-roberts-defend-racist-election-law">Mississippi</a>. However, voter suppression and a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/party-affiliation/by/racial-and-ethnic-composition/among/state/mississippi/">racially polarized</a> electorate have produced few competitive elections in Mississippi, ensuring that the backstop has rarely been necessary. </p>
<p>In the 19th century, many states with similar election laws had much more competitive elections. The bad results these laws produced in close contests demonstrate the worst-case possibilities of Mississippi’s system.</p>
<h2>The crowbar governor</h2>
<p>These anti-majoritarian laws in governors’ races caused what legal scholar <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=h9XiCgAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=ballot%20battles%20edward%20foley&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false">Edward B. Foley</a> termed “a veritable epidemic” of crises during the Gilded Age.</p>
<p>In West Virginia (1888), Rhode Island (1893) and Tennessee (1894), partisan legislatures overruled the voters to install governors in office who had failed to win the most votes. </p>
<p>The 1890 drama in <a href="https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-xpm-2002-11-03-0211032496-story.html">Connecticut</a> provides the worst example of these laws in action.</p>
<p>Democratic candidates running for governor won the most votes in every Connecticut election during the 1880s. But with multiple parties running, they never captured a majority. The legislature, gerrymandered to favor the Republicans, installed their candidates in office <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Connecticut">four out of five</a> times, even though they never even won a plurality. </p>
<p>In 1890, the Connecticut legislature was evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. That year’s gubernatorial election was thrown to the legislature. Deadlock ensued. In a three-way race, where the Democrat had won nearly <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1890-11-07/ed-1/seq-4/">4,000 more votes than his Republican opponent</a>, Republicans in the state Senate refused to seat him.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Morgan G. Bulkeley, governor of Connecticut, stayed on after his term ended when the legislature was deadlocked on the choice of governor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=b001044">U.S. Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though the Democrats held the moral high ground, the Republicans had the election law on their side. With the stalemate, the sitting Republican governor, <a href="https://museumofcthistory.org/2015/08/morgan-gardner-bulkeley/">Morgan G. Bulkeley</a> simply stayed in office for two more years.</p>
<p>While Bulkeley’s supporters commended him for stepping in to <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn82015483/1891-01-10/ed-1/seq-2/">“hold the fort,”</a> his unelected tenure provoked a crisis of legitimacy that ground state government to a halt. </p>
<p>When the legislature <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn82015483/1891-04-03/ed-1/seq-2/">refused to appropriate funds</a> for the state budget, Bulkeley borrowed US$300,000 ($8.3 million today) from his family’s company – Aetna Life Insurance – to pay for state <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-05-09/ed-1/seq-4/">operations</a>. Neighboring states refused to acknowledge the <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-24/ed-1/seq-4/">legality</a> of <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-25/ed-1/seq-4/">arrest warrants</a> he issued. At one point, the Democrats changed the locks on the governor’s office and Bulkeley popped them off with a <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-03-21/ed-1/seq-4/">crowbar</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-25/ed-1/seq-4/">“Nothing short of a revolution,”</a> said the disgusted governor of New York, could end the tyranny of the minority in Connecticut. </p>
<p>But Bulkeley’s methods had damaged the Republican Party’s reputation. In the regularly scheduled 1892 election, the Democrat who had won the most votes in 1890, <a href="https://www.nga.org/governor/luzon-burritt-morris/">Luzon B. Morris</a>, won an outright majority and became governor.</p>
<h2>Bad track record</h2>
<p>If the winner of the most votes in the Mississippi gubernatorial election does not also win the majority of House districts, it could set off a crisis of legitimacy in Mississippi similar to the one that took place in Connecticut in 1890.</p>
<p>If that happens <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5beeefdbf407b4c074e45ec6/t/5dbc5e0e74c31f282750e68a/1572625934211/Order.pdf">the case could return to court</a> for an expedited hearing that could overturn the challenged provision. </p>
<p>Laws that place anti-democratic restrictions on the popular vote have a bad track record in competitive elections. At best they add unnecessary complexity and instability to what should be a simple system.</p>
<p>At worst they undermine the principle of popular rule, damage voters’ faith in democracy and provoke crises of legitimacy. The Mississippi civil rights lawsuit continues after the election. If it succeeds, it will mark a repudiation of Mississippi’s legacy of racial disfranchisement.</p>
<p>If it does not succeed, then Mississippi’s legislature and governor might want to consider Connecticut’s example.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mississippi-african-american-voters-sue-over-election-law-rooted-in-the-states-racist-past-123077">an article</a> that originally ran on Sept. 23, 2019.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gideon Cohn-Postar is a Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.</span></em></p>A Mississippi law that allegedly makes it ‘more difficult for African-
American-preferred candidates to win elections’ will still be in place when voters choose a new governor Tuesday.Gideon Cohn-Postar, Graduate Student in History, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1230772019-09-23T11:33:29Z2019-09-23T11:33:29ZMississippi: African American voters sue over election law rooted in the state’s racist past<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293408/original/file-20190920-135113-w8p9cw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Mississippi House of Representatives can choose the winner of a gubernatorial election under certain circumstances.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Floor-Action/94d9a851b8864142b380369d1b596ee0/25/0">AP/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A lawsuit over a Mississippi election law, if successful, will change the way that state elects its governor. </p>
<p>Four African Americans <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6102478-Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit.html">filed the federal civil rights lawsuit</a> in May 2019, charging that the way their state elects its statewide officials violates the Voting Rights Act, the 14th Amendment and the principle of “one-person, one-vote.” </p>
<p>To win election, a candidate for governor of Mississippi has to win an outright majority of the popular vote – and win a majority of the state’s 122 House districts.</p>
<p>If no candidate does both, the state House gets to select the next governor, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Article_V,_Mississippi_Constitution#Section_141">regardless of who got the most votes.</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-african-american-has-won-statewide-office-in-mississippi-in-129-years-heres-why-118319">No African American has been elected statewide since 1890</a>.</p>
<p>Republican legislators in Mississippi defended the law by arguing that the plaintiffs provide <a href="https://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/18/hosemann-gunn-say-racial-hostility-in-jim-crow-era-not-reason-to-throw-out-election-provision-today">“nothing more than conjecture”</a> that they would be harmed by this election method.</p>
<p>Media coverage of the lawsuit has emphasized that “no Mississippi candidate who won the most votes for a statewide office has been prevented from taking office because of the other <a href="https://www.apnews.com/3ad297610e314e4a863ebb521b98efd0">requirements</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://sites.northwestern.edu/gcohnpostar/">As a historian of 19th-century voting rights in the U.S.</a>, I believe this analysis ignores the history of anti-democratic gubernatorial election laws.</p>
<p>Today, Mississippi is one of only two states where the winner of the popular vote does not automatically become governor. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Governor_of_Vermont#History_of_deadlocked_races">Vermont is the other</a>. In the 19th century, however, many states had such laws.</p>
<p>The damage that these laws did to democratic legitimacy and political stability in the 1870s, ‘80s and '90s was not conjecture. These laws were intended to entrench the rule of the party in power. </p>
<p>This November, Mississippi is preparing for its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/09/03/the-trailer-mississippi-has-a-surprisingly-competitive-gubernatorial-race/5d6d2a46602ff171a5d7338d/">first close gubernatorial election</a> since <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/04/us/tight-governor-s-race-will-be-decided-by-mississippi-house-of-representatives.html">1999</a>. The election law that is the focus of the lawsuit could decide who wins. Its origins and the track record of similar laws in more competitive states bear investigation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293410/original/file-20190920-135128-nduk7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder supported the filing of the Mississippi lawsuit, saying ‘count all the votes and the person who gets the greatest number of votes wins.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Mississippi-Elections-Lawsuit/f36cd2804dfb40adbcd61a97a952ce5c/3/0">AP/Seth Wenig</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disenfranchisement by law</h2>
<p>The gubernatorial election law dates to 1890, when it was drafted into Mississippi’s <a href="http://mshistorynow.mdah.state.ms.us/articles/103/index.php?s=extra&id=270">constitution</a> by a nearly <a href="http://mshistorynow.mdah.state.ms.us/articles/103/mississippi-constitution-of-1890">all-white convention</a>. </p>
<p>The Southern Democrats in charge of the convention were intent on <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/grant-kkk/">removing African Americans from politics</a>. The constitution they crafted subjected prospective voters to a literacy test and poll tax – <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=7aM7DwAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=mississippi%201890%20constitution&pg=PR3#v=onepage&q&f=false">effectively disenfranchising nearly all African Americans</a>.</p>
<p>They included the majority vote and state House district provision in the constitution as a backstop to preserve white control of <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/154496/mississippi-quotes-john-roberts-defend-racist-election-law">Mississippi</a>. However, voter suppression and a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/party-affiliation/by/racial-and-ethnic-composition/among/state/mississippi/">racially polarized</a> electorate have produced few competitive elections in Mississippi, ensuring that the backstop has rarely been necessary. </p>
<p>In the 19th century, many states with similar election laws had much more competitive elections. The bad results these laws produced in close contests demonstrate the worst-case possibilities of Mississippi’s system.</p>
<h2>The crowbar governor</h2>
<p>These anti-majoritarian laws in governors’ races caused what legal scholar <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=h9XiCgAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=ballot%20battles%20edward%20foley&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false">Edward B. Foley</a> termed “a veritable epidemic” of crises during the Gilded Age.</p>
<p>In West Virginia (1888), Rhode Island (1893) and Tennessee (1894), partisan legislatures overruled the voters to install governors in office who had failed to win the most votes. </p>
<p>The 1890 drama in <a href="https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-xpm-2002-11-03-0211032496-story.html">Connecticut</a> provides the worst example of these laws in action.</p>
<p>Democratic candidates running for governor won the most votes in every Connecticut election during the 1880s. But with multiple parties running, they never captured a majority. The legislature, gerrymandered to favor the Republicans, installed their candidates in office <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Connecticut">4 out of 5</a> times, even though they never even won a plurality. </p>
<p>In 1890, the Connecticut legislature was evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. That year’s gubernatorial election was thrown to the legislature. Deadlock ensued. In a three-way race, where the Democrat had won nearly <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1890-11-07/ed-1/seq-4/">4,000 more votes than his Republican opponent</a>, Republicans in the state Senate refused to seat him.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=823&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293412/original/file-20190920-135078-1skhdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1034&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Morgan G. Bulkeley, governor of Connecticut, stayed on after his term ended when the legislature was deadlocked on the choice of governor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=b001044">U.S. Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though the Democrats held the moral high ground, the Republicans had the election law on their side. With the stalemate, the sitting Republican governor, <a href="https://museumofcthistory.org/2015/08/morgan-gardner-bulkeley/">Morgan G. Bulkeley</a>, who had not even run for re-election, simply stayed in office for two more years.</p>
<p>While Bulkeley’s supporters commended him for stepping in to <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn82015483/1891-01-10/ed-1/seq-2/">“hold the fort,”</a> his unelected tenure provoked a crisis of legitimacy that ground state government to a halt. </p>
<p>When the legislature <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn82015483/1891-04-03/ed-1/seq-2/">refused to appropriate funds</a> for the state budget, Bulkeley borrowed $300,000 ($8.3 million today) from his family’s company – Aetna Life Insurance – to pay for state <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-05-09/ed-1/seq-4/">operations</a>. Neighboring states refused to acknowledge the <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-24/ed-1/seq-4/">legality</a> of <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-25/ed-1/seq-4/">arrest warrants</a> he issued. At one point, the Democrats changed the locks on the governor’s office and Bulkeley popped them off with a <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-03-21/ed-1/seq-4/">crowbar</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn94053256/1891-02-25/ed-1/seq-4/">“Nothing short of a revolution,”</a> said the disgusted governor of New York, could end the tyranny of the minority in Connecticut. </p>
<p>But Bulkeley’s methods had damaged the Republican Party’s reputation. In the regularly scheduled 1892 election, the Democrat who had won the most votes in 1890, <a href="https://www.nga.org/governor/luzon-burritt-morris/">Luzon B. Morris</a>, won an outright majority and became governor.</p>
<h2>The hero of Gettysburg</h2>
<p>In Maine in 1879, a similar election law came close to provoking a civil war.</p>
<p>The sitting <a href="https://www.nga.org/governor/alonzo-garcelon/">Democratic governor, Alonzo Garcelon</a>, placed a distant third in the election, behind the Republican and Greenback candidates. Because no one won an outright majority, the new legislature, which Republicans expected to control, would decide the winner.</p>
<p>As the incumbent, however, Garcelon had power over certifying the legislative election results. <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016025/1880-02-19/ed-1/seq-2/">Using every trick in the book</a>, Garcelon’s cronies overturned enough election results to give his allies control of the new legislature.</p>
<p>The state’s supreme court ruled his actions illegal, but Garcelon ignored them and seated his illegitimate legislature, hoping they would vote to re-elect him governor.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1781&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1781&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293418/original/file-20190920-135074-9zum0t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1781&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Portland Daily Press of Dec. 24, 1879, covered a story about the charges that the legislative election was stolen by Garcelon and his allies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016025/1879-12-24/ed-1/seq-2/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bands of armed Mainers from both sides of the dispute began gathering in the capital. Only the intervention of Civil War hero and former Maine Gov. Joshua Chamberlain averted bloodshed. Chamberlain, <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016025/1880-01-13/ed-1/seq-2/">head of the state’s militia</a>, <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016025/1880-03-01/ed-1/seq-2/">refused to take sides</a>. When a group of Garcelon’s supporters pushed into Chamberlain’s office, he opened his shirt and dared them to do what the rebels had failed to at Gettysburg.</p>
<p>The supreme court again ruled that the Republicans had the right to organize the legislature and appoint the governor. For two more weeks Garcelon refused to back down, but when Chamberlain publicly accepted the court’s decision and sided with the <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016025/1880-01-28/ed-1/seq-1/">Republicans</a>, <a href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016025/1879-12-29/ed-1/seq-2/">the crisis came to an end</a>.</p>
<p>Maine quickly amended its constitution to permit governors to be elected with <a href="http://legislature.maine.gov/ros/LawsOfMaine/#Const">only a plurality of the vote</a>.</p>
<h2>Bad track record</h2>
<p>If the civil rights lawsuit against the gubernatorial election process succeeds, it will mark a repudiation of Mississippi’s legacy of racial disfranchisement.</p>
<p>If it does not succeed, then Mississippi’s legislature and governor might want to consider the examples of Connecticut in 1890 and Maine in 1879.</p>
<p>Laws that place anti-democratic restrictions on the popular vote have a bad track record in competitive elections. At best they add unnecessary complexity and instability to what should be a simple system. </p>
<p>At worst they undermine the principle of popular rule, damage voters’ faith in democracy and provoke crises of legitimacy.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gideon Cohn-Postar is a PhD candidate in history at Northwestern University and a fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. His dissertation examines the nature and policy legacy of economic voter intimidation in the late 19th-century United States. He receives funding from the Chabraja Center for Historical Studies.</span></em></p>Electing a governor in Mississippi requires more than just a majority vote. That election law came about during a time of racist and anti-democratic voting laws meant to entrench ruling parties.Gideon Cohn-Postar, Graduate Student in History, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1209272019-08-07T22:36:02Z2019-08-07T22:36:02ZHow to inject youth into Newfoundland and Labrador’s broken, greying democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286486/original/file-20190731-186819-1mbgc9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C35%2C3000%2C1863&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Dwight Ball holds his granddaughter after winning the provincial election in May 2019. Young people are leaving the province for jobs and opportunities, but should still be allowed to vote in provincial elections. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What does it mean to be a voter in a Canadian federation increasingly defined by wealth inequality and economic migration? </p>
<p>As public policy scholars, we argue that politicians, policy-makers and citizens alike need to start rethinking how to ensure everyone’s voice is heard in a regionally diverse federation. More specifically, we think that provinces have good grounds for extending voting rights to expatriate citizens. In the case of Newfoundland and Labrador, extending the vote is particularly warranted.</p>
<p>That’s because of two issues plaguing Newfoundland and Labrador: <a href="https://www.thetelegram.com/news/local/jobs-biggest-reason-for-outmigration-from-newfoundland-and-labrador-report-323384/">People are leaving</a> the province, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/births-low-population-1.4980724">and those who remain are growing older.</a></p>
<p>As two expatriate Newfoundland and Labradorians — one of us in Australia — we watched from the sidelines during this spring’s provincial election. It was so defined by negativity and an absence of social vision that it inspired a playful <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/2-newfoundlanders-on-the-province-s-confounding-election-1.5134811">CBC podcast</a> with the question: “Does anyone actually want to win the election?”</p>
<p>That things played out this way came as little surprise. The province is trapped between a need <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ag-report-nl-deficit-1.4946107">to get its financial affairs in order</a> and politicians who look to spending increases instead of long-term solutions as a means of winning elections. The ruling Liberals, for example, opened their campaign with <a href="https://www.retailcouncil.org/province/newfoundland/newfoundland-and-labrador-tables-pre-election-budget-then-calls-provincial-election-for-may-16th/">an extra $152 million for the budget</a>, including <a href="https://www.retailcouncil.org/province/newfoundland/newfoundland-and-labrador-tables-pre-election-budget-then-calls-provincial-election-for-may-16th/">a cut to the deficit reduction</a> levy which had only come into effect in 2016.</p>
<h2>Not sustainable</h2>
<p>Every citizen of the province knows this approach is unsustainable. To put the fiscal situation in perspective, Newfoundland and Labrador’s provincial debt is a whopping <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/daily-quotidien/181120/dq181120b-eng.pdf?st=qULhyIlF">$21,221 per capita</a>, the highest in Canada, and its debt servicing costs as a per cent of provincial revenues stands at <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/british-columbians-our-governments/government-finances/public-accounts/2017-18/pa-2017-18-provincial-debt-summary.pdf">13.8 per cent compared to the next highest province, Quebec, at eight per cent</a>. </p>
<p>The graph below shows that Newfoundland and Labradorians face a tricky demographic challenge. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286645/original/file-20190801-169676-sen41d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286645/original/file-20190801-169676-sen41d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286645/original/file-20190801-169676-sen41d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286645/original/file-20190801-169676-sen41d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286645/original/file-20190801-169676-sen41d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286645/original/file-20190801-169676-sen41d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286645/original/file-20190801-169676-sen41d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The graph vividly portrays how rapidly Newfoundland is growing older.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The share of the population under 50 years of age has been shrinking for the past 45 years. Since 2000, the population in age quintiles (five-year intervals) has declined in every age group below 50, while increasing in every age quintile above 50. While the population, post-2000, has remained relatively stable, the composition of the province’s population is vastly different.</p>
<p>As the population ages, so too does the median voter. </p>
<p>Citizens who are older are understandably less likely to support long-term reforms that will cut into their more immediate interests. This means that proposing tough solutions to current fiscal problems can make it hard to win elections, especially if there is a rural/urban divide separating younger and older voters.</p>
<p>Unlike Newfoundland’s fiscally tough solutions <a href="https://www.mun.ca/mha/resettlement/">of the past</a>, we propose a solution that more greatly strengthens attachment to home: Allowing Newfoundlanders and Labradorians living outside the province to vote.</p>
<h2>Youth injection</h2>
<p>To cast ballots in Newfoundland and Labrador elections, voters must be <a href="https://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/voters/registration.html">provincial residents</a> the day before polling day. We propose to extend the vote in a simple, transparent and inclusive manner to anyone 18 or older who has ever attended school in the province.</p>
<p>Why former students? First, many children of Newfoundland and Labrador have been <a href="https://www.thetelegram.com/news/local/jobs-biggest-reason-for-outmigration-from-newfoundland-and-labrador-report-323384/">lured or forced abroad</a> to scratch out a living or seek their fortune. All have been victims of the lack of opportunity at home. Many of these people wish to return, and many do return, in their more senior years. Why should their voices not be heard at the provincial ballot box? </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jlabec/doi10.1086-703362.html">study published in the <em>Journal of Labor Economics</em></a> suggests that the mobility of these workers has boosted pay in their province of origin. Wages rise because employers at home must hike pay to prevent more workers from leaving. This is a real economic gain, on top of any money that workers who leave their home province send back home.</p>
<p>Second, there is precedent — national voter eligibility is not determined by location, but rather <a href="https://www.scc-csc.ca/case-dossier/cb/2019/36645-eng.aspx">by citizenship</a>. The electoral district you vote in federally is determined by your current residential address, but your eligibility to vote is preserved by the government of Canada even when you are <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=reg/etr&document=index&lang=e">living abroad</a>. </p>
<p>Third, consider the civic education that has been instilled in these individuals through the province’s school system. They have a respect for the people and the land, the traditions and the ambitions of their home province.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286492/original/file-20190731-186805-iokvbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286492/original/file-20190731-186805-iokvbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286492/original/file-20190731-186805-iokvbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286492/original/file-20190731-186805-iokvbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286492/original/file-20190731-186805-iokvbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286492/original/file-20190731-186805-iokvbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286492/original/file-20190731-186805-iokvbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents arrive to vote in the provincial election at a church in Deer Lake, NL, on May 16, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Generally speaking, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9760.2005.00221.x">extend the vote</a> to people because they are either directly affected by the collective decisions of government or because they are subject to the laws of that government. Expatriates easily satisfy the first of these two conditions. Provincial policies affect both their ability to return home and their loved ones who remain behind. </p>
<p>To be sure, extending the franchise is not a magic bullet that will immediately solve the province’s problems. And there are no doubt further questions about the voting mechanisms needed to make this proposal a reality. </p>
<p>But we think extending the vote to expatriates strongly aligns with the province’s values. It could also help nudge its politics closer to long-term solutions that respect the roots and rights of all Newfoundland and Labradorians past, present and future.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120927/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Martin receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Hickey receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Extending the provincial vote to expatriates from Newfoundland and Labrador could make make for a more vibrant democracy.Christopher Martin, Associate Professor, Political Philosophy and Education, University of British ColumbiaRoss Hickey, Senior research fellow, public policy, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1166312019-07-01T10:52:22Z2019-07-01T10:52:22ZFlorida makes the restoration of voting rights contingent on criminal debt payments<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272825/original/file-20190506-103078-tyw4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, right, signed the measure state lawmakers approved.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Florida-Legislature/d7416b48aead424bbf9514aac4f77bdc/5/0">AP Photo/Steve Cannon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/6.282.pdf">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis</a> has signed a measure approved by <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2019/05/02/florida-gop-moves-to-rein-in-felon-voting-rights-1005333">state lawmakers</a> that makes the restoration of voting rights for people convicted of felonies contingent on having paid off all criminal debt associated with their conviction.</p>
<p>A coalition of civil rights groups immediately <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/federal-lawsuit-pushes-back-floridas-amendment-4-roll-out">filed a lawsuit</a> in federal court to block the new law by having it declared unconstitutional.</p>
<p>I’m a political scientist who researches the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=A-qTv28AAAAJ">effects of restricting and restoring the voting rights</a> of people convicted of crimes. I believe it’s not yet clear whether the new law will withstand this legal challenge. But if the law stays on the books, it would <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/felons-might-have-pay-hundreds-millions-being-able-vote-florida">greatly reduce</a> the number of people whose voting rights are restored in Florida.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1144763399231934470"}"></div></p>
<h2>Voting rights in Florida</h2>
<p>Florida <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-florida">used to have</a> the nation’s strictest <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/felony-disenfranchisement-a-primer/">disenfranchisement law</a> for people convicted of <a href="http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0700-0799/0775/Sections/0775.081.html">felonies</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/">most states</a>, voting rights are automatically restored after a person is released from prison, or after they finish parole or probation. In comparison, under Florida’s old system, a citizen with a felony conviction would never be allowed to vote again, unless they were granted clemency by a <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/clemency.shtml">four-member board</a> that typically had a long waitlist of applicants.</p>
<p>Florida voters had indicated their readiness to change all that in November 2018, when they voted by a 2-1 margin to <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Voting_Rights_Restoration_for_Felons_Initiative_(2018)">amend their state’s constitution</a>. Known as Amendment 4, this measure backed by <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/current/midterms-2018-restoring-voting-rights-to-ex-felons-is-a-rare-bipartisan-issue">conservative and progressive groups alike</a> automatically restored the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions “after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation.” </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272828/original/file-20190506-103057-19jzwhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Florida enfranchisement leader Desmond Meade registered to vote in January 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Florida-Felon-Voting-Rights/378f7060211245aabec8bf631e213532/6/0">AP Photo/John Raoux</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New exclusions</h2>
<p>The new law restricts the impact of Amendment 4, making the inability to pay off criminal debts the only thing standing between many people and their right to vote.</p>
<p>That’s why many politicians and civil rights advocates have derided the measure as a “<a href="https://americanhistory.si.edu/democracy-exhibition/vote-voice/keeping-vote/state-rules-federal-rules/poll-taxes">poll tax</a>” akin to the fees southern states levied on African Americans to strip them of their right to vote for nearly a century. The <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxiv">24th Amendment</a> declared poll taxes illegal in federal elections in 1964, and the <a href="https://perma.cc/TED9-NQMM">Supreme Court barred them from state elections</a> two years later.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/Gruver%20v.%20Barton%20Complaint.pdf%22%22">National Association for the Advancement of Colored People</a> argues that Florida’s law violates the Constitution’s 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause and Due Process Clause, the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxiv">24th Amendment’s</a> ban on poll taxes, the 15th Amendment’s prohibition of denying voting rights based on race, and the First Amendment’s protection of free speech.</p>
<p>The ACLU further alleges that the new law <a href="https://www.aclufl.org/sites/default/files/aclu_written_testimony_in_opposition_-_hb_7089_state_affairs_4.4.19.pdf">violates the Florida Constitution</a> because it contradicts the voters’ intent.</p>
<p>Without the new law, Amendment 4 could potentially have restored voting rights to about <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5775917-Florida-Simon-Mauer-Memo.html">1.4 million citizens</a>. But now, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/Gruver%20v.%20Barton%20Complaint.pdf">80% or more</a> of Floridians with felony convictions who owe criminal debts might never get the opportunity to cast ballots, according to the lawsuit filed right after DeSantis signed the new law.</p>
<p>Although the law does provide for <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article229969709.html">new pathways by which criminal debts can be dismissed</a> or converted into community service, former Florida Chief Judge Belvin Perry <a href="https://www.wftv.com/news/local/judge-warns-lawsuits-may-be-ahead-on-felon-voting-rights/946131390">questions whether those options</a> will work.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/thwarting-amendment-4">More than 2,000 people</a> who gained voting rights through Amendment 4 had registered within the first three months of 2019. The state anticipates canceling any registrations it deems ineligible once it sets up costly <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/2019/04/04/amendment-4-will-likely-cost-millions-to-carry-out-heres-why/">systems to implement the law</a>.</p>
<p>Florida authorities have said <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2019/05/02/florida-gop-moves-to-rein-in-felon-voting-rights-1005333">they won’t prosecute</a> anyone who registered or voted during the first half of 2019 for voter fraud, even if they are later deemed ineligible to vote. But there are no protections in place for anyone who registers in the future.</p>
<h2>Unpaid criminal debts</h2>
<p>Why do so many Floridians have unpaid criminal debt?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Constitution">Florida’s constitution</a> requires the state’s <a href="https://flccoc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FINAL-Funding-Continuity-Action-Plan-Report-CCOC.pdf">courts to finance themselves</a>. Generating their own <a href="https://flccoc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LBR-Document-082616-1030AM.pdf">budget</a> <a href="https://www.flcourts.org/content/download/218239/1975380/02-20-2009_Seven_Principles.pdf">compels the courts</a> to levy “<a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/hidden-costs-floridas-criminal-justice-fees">user fees</a>” to defendants as they progress through the system, in addition to the <a href="https://www.hutchhufflaw.com/2017/09/18/understanding-restitution-florida/">restitution to victims</a> and fines associated with each conviction.</p>
<p>The state issued a total of <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/felons-might-have-pay-hundreds-millions-being-able-vote-florida">more than US$1 billion</a> in <a href="https://finesandfeesjusticecenter.org/content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Assessments-and-Collections-Report.pdf">felony fines between 2013 and 2018</a>. </p>
<p>Strangely, the authorities do not expect <a href="https://finesandfeesjusticecenter.org/content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Assessments-and-Collections-Report.pdf">most of these fees</a> to ever be paid. Florida’s leaders acknowledge this. The state anticipates the <a href="https://flccoc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/CCOC-Performance-Measures-and-Standards.pdf">receipt of only 9% of that money</a>, versus 90% receipt rates for traffic fines. </p>
<p>Through these fines, Florida courts are trying to generate revenue from a poor population that is largely <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/es_20180314_looneyincarceration_final.pdf">unable to pay</a>. While the Florida Supreme Court affirmed that the state must evaluate a person’s ability to pay before collection begins, and also before punishing for nonpayment, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Justice/FloridaF&F.pdf?nocdn=1">this rarely happens</a>. One woman owes <a href="https://www.apnews.com/ead438dca8d345b3893069d877fef660">$59 million</a> in restitution related to her insurance fraud conviction after serving a 30-month sentence.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1121870325699022848"}"></div></p>
<h2>Is this legal?</h2>
<p>Voters could be surprised to see people with felony convictions having to pay off criminal debt as a condition for getting back the right to vote. The <a href="https://dos.myflorida.com/media/699824/constitutional-amendments-2018-general-election-english.pdf">ballot initiative</a> didn’t mention <a href="https://www.aclufl.org/en/press-releases/aclu-florida-statement-house-legislators-undermining-floridians-civil-rights">criminal debt</a>.</p>
<p>Interpretations varied, however. A lawyer presenting the amendment to the <a href="https://wfsu.org/gavel2gavel/transcript/pdfs/16-1785_16-1981.pdf">Supreme Court</a>, Florida’s official <a href="http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/constitutional-amendments/2018Ballot/VRA_Report.pdf">financial impact assessment of the amendment</a>, <a href="https://www.aclufl.org/en/campaigns/voting-restoration-amendment-4#FAQs">the American Civil Liberties Union</a> <a href="https://www.orlandoweekly.com/orlando/the-2018-florida-amendments-what-they-actually-mean-and-what-we-recommend/Content?oid=20180773">and</a> <a href="https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20181026/voter-guide-to-2018-florida-constitutional-amendments">online</a> <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/12/the-constitutional-amendments-on-floridas-ballot-explained/">voter</a> <a href="https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/05/12-amendments-floridas-2018-election-ballot-what-they-mean/1532348002/">guides</a> all had their own take on whether the amendment would include criminal debt. </p>
<p>Should legal challenges to this law make it all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome isn’t clear. The <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Democracy/090204.coronado.brennan.pdf">Supreme Court</a> previously upheld a similar Arizona law that required citizens to pay back all court charges before having their voting rights restored. The court ruled that these charges are not a tax, and also that policies that restore voting rights must meet different standards than policies that restrict voting rights.</p>
<p>But the unique characteristics of <a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/7086/Analyses/2019s07086.rc.PDF">Florida’s criminal debt structure</a> could potentially make Florida a new test case.</p>
<h2>Lost opportunities</h2>
<p>I’d argue that restoring the vote to citizens who have been through the criminal justice system would benefit society.</p>
<p>My research suggests that being encouraged to vote causes people to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000168">more informed</a> and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3272681">more trusting</a>. </p>
<p>I also researched what happened when more than <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3272694">150,000 Virginians</a> convicted of felonies had their voting rights restored through <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-virginia">actions by their governor</a>. I found that restoring voting rights in Virginia caused newly enfranchised citizens to <a href="https://theconversation.com/florida-restores-voting-rights-to-1-5-million-citizens-which-might-also-decrease-crime-106528">feel more included in society</a> and to develop stronger trust in government and stronger confidence in themselves. </p>
<p>Other scholars have found that these types of attitudes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1996.tb01220.x">ease the transition</a> back to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/10430-000">life outside prison</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716206286898">after</a> <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=205090">serving out sentences</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474510385641">reducing the likelihood</a> that formerly incarcerated people <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Causes_of_Delinquency.html?id=53MNtMqy0fIC">commit more crimes</a>.</p>
<p>Based on this research, it appears likely that restoring voting rights to more people in Florida would benefit the state in many ways – among them, having fewer people living behind bars. And any law that restricts this enfranchisement would have the opposite effect.</p>
<p><em>This article includes some information in a related article published <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-floridas-new-voting-rights-amendment-may-not-be-as-sweeping-as-it-looks-116006">May 1, 2019</a>.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Shineman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This state law is leaving up to a million people unable to participate in elections who might have gotten relief through an amendment voters approved. Critics call it a modern-day poll tax.Victoria Shineman, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1189822019-06-18T21:54:10Z2019-06-18T21:54:10ZFacebook claims Libra offers economic empowerment to billions – an economist is skeptical<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/with-cryptocurrency-launch-facebook-sets-its-path-toward-becoming-an-independent-nation-118987">Facebook is joining</a> the cryptocurrency craze. Should we be concerned?</p>
<p>The social network site on June 18 said <a href="https://newsroom.fb.com/news/2019/06/coming-in-2020-calibra/">it’s launching a new cryptocurrency</a> called <a href="https://libra.org/en-US/">Libra</a> with the help of 27 partners, including MasterCard, Visa, ebay and Uber. </p>
<p>In simple terms, Libra is meant to replace the paper bills in your wallet or purse with a digital equivalent. But unlike other cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, Libra will be directly backed by assets. </p>
<p><a href="https://libra.org/en-US/white-paper/#introduction">The white paper</a> describing the vision for this new currency is filled with laudable goals such as creating economic opportunity and advancing financial inclusion. But it will take time to completely understand the ramifications of Libra, which Facebook <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/06/18/733701971/facebook-unveils-libra-cryptocurrency-sets-launch-for-2020">hopes to launch in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com">macroeconomist</a>, I believe there are economic benefits to Facebook’s cryptocurrency – but also some big potential downsides. </p>
<h2>The benefits of Libra</h2>
<p>Existing cryptocurrencies are not tied to physical assets. This makes them immune to the whims of national governments but also makes them prone to speculative bubbles and flash crashes. </p>
<p>Libra, on the other hand, is going to be 100% backed by assets. Every unit of Libra currency will be backed by an <a href="https://libra.org/en-US/about-currency-reserve/#the_reserve">equivalent basket</a> of bank deposits and short-term government securities in various major currencies. </p>
<p>As a result, Libra will not suffer wild price fluctuations. And since it will be backed by a collection of international currencies and assets, it won’t be tied to the fortunes and policies of one country either. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280112/original/file-20190618-118535-m8sfeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Economist Friedrich Hayek believed in the decentralization of currency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek#/media/File:Friedrich_Hayek_portrait.jpg">The Mises Institute</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another effect of being backed by assets is that it may help lower the risk of high inflation in countries across the world. <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1974/hayek/facts/">Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek</a> made this very point in his book “<a href="https://mises.org/library/denationalisation-money-argument-refined">The Denationalisation of Money</a>.” Hayek believed everyone would be better off if people could pick among different types of private money, like Libra, instead of using government-issued money. Hayek believed issuing private money would banish inflation from the world since people would only use the currency most stable in value.</p>
<p>A second economic benefit of Libra is that it will likely reduce the cost of transferring money around the world because the marginal cost of using it will be so low and Facebook is so prevalent, with about <a href="https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/facebook-reaches-238-billion-users-beats-revenue-estimates-in-latest-upda/553403/">2.4 billion users</a>. As I have pointed out before, travelers and migrants <a href="https://theconversation.com/thinking-like-an-economist-can-make-your-next-trip-abroad-cheaper-81655">often pay excessive fees</a> to move money from one country to another. </p>
<p>In a testament to the expected impact of Libra on the average cost of sending money, Facebook’s announcement <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90365728/western-union-stock-tanks-after-facebook-unveils-libra-cryptocurrency">sent the stock of Western Union</a> – a major mover of money internationally – plummeting.</p>
<h2>The risks of a cash-free society</h2>
<p>If Libra is a success, it will surely speed up the movement toward more countries becoming <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2016/09/04/cash-cashless-society-credit-cards/89726644/">cashless societies</a>. </p>
<p>While some, such as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, may favor this outcome, I believe there are two important downsides to going cash-free. </p>
<p>One is that it disenfranchises the <a href="https://paymentweek.com/2018-2-22-sweden-develops-buyers-remorse-cashless-society/">poor, elderly and unbanked</a>, who would be pushed further to the margins of society and possibly become unable to take part in modern commerce. </p>
<p>Although the price of an individual virtual currency transaction may be lower, there are still many nontrivial costs necessary to connecting to the digital society. For starters, you will need a smart phone and an internet connection to use Libra, both of which come with regular costs and fees. </p>
<p>Concerns over disenfranchisement have lead to places like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/business/cashless-stores-philadelphia.html">Philadelphia</a>, <a href="https://www.sfexaminer.com/the-city/sf-approves-ban-on-cashless-stores/">San Francisco</a> and the <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/new-jersey-becomes-second-state-to-ban-cashless-businesses/">state of New Jersey passing</a> laws to ban cashless stores. </p>
<p>Second, a cashless society makes a country’s entire economy more vulnerable to disruptions. That’s because a cash-free economy depends on several things always working: a stable supply of electricity, constant communications networks and robust security. If one fails, digital transactions won’t work. Two recent news stories impressed on me just how vulnerable the power grid is.</p>
<p>The U.S. government recently acknowledged that it’s deploying <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/us/politics/trump-cyber-russia-grid.html">malware and viruses inside Russia’s electrical grid</a> that could cripple it. That’s because the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/us/politics/russia-cyberattacks.html">U.S. believes the Russians</a> are already inside America’s power grid. </p>
<p>Of course, there doesn’t need to be nefarious intent to see widespread power outages. Recently the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-massive-power-outage-like-argentinas-could-happen-in-the-us-4-essential-reads-101481">entire power grid collapsed</a> in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/16/world/americas/power-failure-argentina-uruguay.html">Argentina, Uruguay</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/16/world/power-outage-argentina-uruguay-paraguay/index.html">Paraguay</a>. Tens of millions people were <a href="https://time.com/5608209/argentina-uruguay-power-outage-cause/">without power for hours</a>, and some had no power for a day. The same thing has happened in <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-recovery-last-customers-reconnected-main-power-grid-today-2019-03-20/">parts of the U.S</a>.</p>
<p>Software viruses or accidents that shut down the electrical grid may not be lethal to humans but they can kill a cashless economy.</p>
<p>Will Libra lives up to <a href="https://libra.org/en-US/white-paper/#introduction">Zuckerberg’s lofty economic goals</a> and empower billions of people? Time will tell but meanwhile call me a skeptic. But the consequences of one day relying entirely on ones and zeroes to power our economies is worrisome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Facebook claims its new cryptocurrency will bring financial inclusion and opportunity to billions, pushing cash further to the fringes. Is that a good thing?Jay L. Zagorsky, Senior lecturer, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1160062019-05-01T10:41:09Z2019-05-01T10:41:09ZWhy Florida’s new voting rights amendment may not be as sweeping as it looks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271774/original/file-20190430-136800-sue7fy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Florida enfranchisement leader Desmond Meade registered to vote in January 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Florida-Felon-Voting-Rights/378f7060211245aabec8bf631e213532/6/0">AP Photo/John Raoux</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Florida <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-florida">used to have</a> the nation’s strictest <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/felony-disenfranchisement-a-primer/">disenfranchisement law</a> for people convicted of <a href="http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0700-0799/0775/Sections/0775.081.html">crimes classified as felonies</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/">most states</a>, voting rights are automatically restored after a person is released from prison, or after they finish parole or probation. In comparison, under Florida’s old system, a citizen with a felony conviction would never be allowed to vote again, unless they were granted clemency by a <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/clemency.shtml">four-member board</a> with a long waitlist. </p>
<p>Florida voters indicated their readiness to change all that in November 2018, when they voted by a 2-1 margin to <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Voting_Rights_Restoration_for_Felons_Initiative_(2018)">amend their state’s constitution</a>. Known as Amendment 4, this measure backed by <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/current/midterms-2018-restoring-voting-rights-to-ex-felons-is-a-rare-bipartisan-issue">conservative and progressive groups alike</a> automatically restored the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions “after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/a-joyous-day-ahead-as-14-million-florida-ex-felons-have-voting-rights-restored/2019/01/05/58650ee2-106f-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html">media</a> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/florida-to-gain-1-4-million-voters-if-felon-measure-passes-1540891801">widely</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/us/florida-felon-voting-rights.html">reported</a> that Amendment 4 restored voting rights to 1.4 million citizens, often likening its impact to the Voting Rights Act. </p>
<p>I’m a political scientist who researches the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=A-qTv28AAAAJ">effects of restricting and restoring the voting rights</a> of people convicted of crimes. There is <a href="http://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/07089">legislation currently pending in the Florida statehouse</a>. If it becomes law, that measure would greatly reduce the number of people who would have their voting rights restored by Amendment 4. </p>
<h2>Exceptions and exclusions</h2>
<p>Not all people with felony convictions will gain voting rights as a result of last year’s constitutional change.</p>
<p>One reason for that is straightforward. Florida’s citizens who have been convicted of committing <a href="https://www.humanrightsdefensecenter.org/action/news/2018/hrdc-directors-editorial-against-amendment-4-florida/">murder or felony sex crimes</a> were specifically left out of Amendment 4.</p>
<p>Debate about what it means to complete what the amendment calls “all terms” of one’s sentence also could severely limit the number of people who can regain the vote. One question raised in that debate is whether all criminal debt associated with the conviction must be paid off before voting rights are restored.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/25/18277470/amendment-4-florida-felon-voting-rights-fees-legislation">The Florida House</a> passed a bill in a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-weighs-which-ex-felons-can-vote-financial-roadblock-remains-n998631">party-line vote</a> to clarify the ramifications. The legislation, which Republican lawmakers drafted and supported and their Democratic colleagues opposed, specifies that Amendment 4 only restores voting rights after all criminal debt has been repaid. It could block the voting rights of more than 1 million people.</p>
<p>People who got back the right to vote through passage of Amendment 4 have already begun to register to vote. If this legislation becomes law, the state government would need to cancel some of those registrations. </p>
<p>But first, Florida would need to set up a <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/2019/04/04/amendment-4-will-likely-cost-millions-to-carry-out-heres-why/">system to track and evaluate</a> the status of criminal debt payments.</p>
<h2>Unpaid criminal debts</h2>
<p>Why do so many people have unpaid criminal debt in Florida?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Constitution">Florida’s constitution</a> requires the state’s <a href="https://flccoc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FINAL-Funding-Continuity-Action-Plan-Report-CCOC.pdf">courts to finance themselves</a>. Generating their own <a href="https://flccoc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LBR-Document-082616-1030AM.pdf">budget</a> <a href="https://www.flcourts.org/content/download/218239/1975380/02-20-2009_Seven_Principles.pdf">compels the courts</a> to levy “<a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/hidden-costs-floridas-criminal-justice-fees">user fees</a>” to defendants as they progress through the system. </p>
<p>The state issued a total of <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/felons-might-have-pay-hundreds-millions-being-able-vote-florida">more than US$1 billion</a> in <a href="https://finesandfeesjusticecenter.org/content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Assessments-and-Collections-Report.pdf">felony fines between 2013 and 2018</a>. </p>
<p>Strangely, the authorities do not expect <a href="https://finesandfeesjusticecenter.org/content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Assessments-and-Collections-Report.pdf">most of these fees</a> to ever be paid. Florida’s leaders acknowledge this. The state anticipates the <a href="https://flccoc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/CCOC-Performance-Measures-and-Standards.pdf">receipt of only 9% of that money</a>, versus 90% receipt rates for traffic fines.</p>
<p>Through these fines, Florida courts are trying to generate revenue from a poor population that is largely <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/es_20180314_looneyincarceration_final.pdf">unable to pay</a>. While the Florida Supreme Court affirmed that the state must evaluate a person’s ability to pay before collection begins, and also before punishing for non-payment, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Justice/FloridaF&F.pdf?nocdn=1">this rarely happens</a>.</p>
<p>If the House bill passes into law, the inability to pay back criminal debt could become the only thing standing between many people and their right to vote. </p>
<p>Prominent politicians like Rep. <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1108083568918564865">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> and Sen. <a href="https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/1121196374840754176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1121196374840754176&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fhomenews%2Fstate-watch%2F440570-florida-house-passes-bill-requiring-felons-to-pay-court-fees-before">Cory Booker</a> – have denounced the House bill, likening it to a <a href="https://americanhistory.si.edu/democracy-exhibition/vote-voice/keeping-vote/state-rules-federal-rules/poll-taxes">poll tax</a>, fees southern states levied on African Americans to strip them of their right to vote.
So have many Florida leaders, including Miramar Mayor <a href="https://twitter.com/WayneMessam/status/1121372421121040384">Wayne Messam</a> and House Democratic Leader <a href="https://www.thefloridastar.com/florida-legislative-black-caucus-opposes-republicans-onerous-fee-based-restrictions-on-amendment-4/">Kionne McGhee</a>.</p>
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<h2>Is this legal?</h2>
<p>Should similar legislation clear the <a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/7086">Florida Senate</a>, the two bills would need to be reconciled before being sent to the governor for his signature.</p>
<p>After that, a U.S. Supreme Court challenge would be likely. The <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/wp-content/uploads/Final-NAACP-LDF-and-FL-NAACP-Opposition-to-House-Bill-7089_4.3.19.pdf">National Association for the Advancement of Colored People</a> argues that the House bill violates the Constitution’s 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause and Due Process Clause, as well as the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxiv">24th Amendment’s</a> prohibition of denying or abridging the right to vote through a “poll tax or other tax.” </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Democracy/090204.coronado.brennan.pdf">Supreme Court</a> previously upheld a similar Arizona law that required citizens to pay back all court charges before having their voting rights restored. But the unique characteristics of <a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/7086/Analyses/2019s07086.rc.PDF">Florida’s criminal debt structure</a> could potentially make Florida a new test case.</p>
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<h2>The electorate’s intent</h2>
<p>Did voters expect that the amendment would require people with felony convictions to pay back their criminal debt as a condition for getting back the right to vote?</p>
<p>None of the words in the <a href="https://dos.myflorida.com/media/699824/constitutional-amendments-2018-general-election-english.pdf">ballot initiative itself</a> mentioned criminal debt.</p>
<p>Including all criminal debt extends far beyond “what any reasonable person would conclude the voters intended when they passed Amendment 4,” said <a href="https://www.aclufl.org/en/press-releases/aclu-florida-statement-house-legislators-undermining-floridians-civil-rights">Kara Gross</a>, the American Civil Liberties Union of Florida legislative director.</p>
<p>Interpretations varied, however. <a href="https://wfsu.org/gavel2gavel/transcript/pdfs/16-1785_16-1981.pdf">A lawyer presenting the amendment to the Supreme Court</a>, <a href="http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/constitutional-amendments/2018Ballot/VRA_Report.pdf">Florida’s official financial impact assessment of the amendment</a>, <a href="https://www.aclufl.org/en/campaigns/voting-restoration-amendment-4#FAQs">the ACLU</a> <a href="https://www.orlandoweekly.com/orlando/the-2018-florida-amendments-what-they-actually-mean-and-what-we-recommend/Content?oid=20180773">and</a> <a href="https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20181026/voter-guide-to-2018-florida-constitutional-amendments">online</a> <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/12/the-constitutional-amendments-on-floridas-ballot-explained/">voter</a> <a href="https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/05/12-amendments-floridas-2018-election-ballot-what-they-mean/1532348002/">guides</a> all had their own take on whether the amendment would include criminal debt. </p>
<p>Whatever voters thought they were asked to consider when Amendment 4 was on the ballot, it’s clear to me what the effect might be of restoring the vote to citizens who have been through the criminal justice system.</p>
<p>In my research, I find that being encouraged to vote causes people to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000168">more informed</a> and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3272681">more trusting</a>. </p>
<p>I also researched what happened when more than <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3272694">150,000 Virginians</a> convicted of felonies had their voting rights restored through <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-virginia">actions by their governor</a> rather than a statewide referendum. I found that restoring voting rights in Virginia caused newly enfranchised citizens to <a href="https://theconversation.com/florida-restores-voting-rights-to-1-5-million-citizens-which-might-also-decrease-crime-106528">feel more included in society</a> and to develop stronger trust in government and stronger confidence in themselves. </p>
<p>Other scholars have found that these types of attitudes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1996.tb01220.x">ease the transition</a> back to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/10430-000">life outside prison</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716206286898">after</a> <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=205090">serving out sentences</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474510385641">reducing the likelihood</a> that formerly incarcerated people <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Causes_of_Delinquency.html?id=53MNtMqy0fIC">commit more crimes</a>.</p>
<p>Based on this research, it appears likely that restoring voting rights to more people in Florida would benefit the state in many ways – among them, having fewer people living behind bars. And any law that restricts this enfranchisement would have the opposite effect.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Shineman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Legislation requiring that all criminal debt associated with a citizen’s conviction be repaid would leave thousands of people unable to cast ballots.Victoria Shineman, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1116972019-02-15T23:52:31Z2019-02-15T23:52:31ZVirginia politics: The uneasy marriage of new liberalism and historic racism<p>Virginia is home to America’s original contradiction – <a href="https://books.wwnorton.com/books/American-Slavery-American-Freedom/">the peculiar juxtaposition of slavery and freedom</a>.</p>
<p>The recent “blue-ing” of Virginia has obscured a sobering political reality: Racial progress and racial bigotry can exist at the same time. </p>
<p>Those contradictions were on display when Democratic Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam recently admitted to, and subsequently denied, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/analysis-northam-struggles-to-escape-virginias-troubled-past--and-his-own/2019/02/02/b4cb1962-2729-11e9-90cd-dedb0c92dc17_story.html?utm_term=.3c3b7252cc60">being photographed in blackface in the early 1980s</a>. </p>
<p>Northam is the latest elected official to fan the flames of America’s tortured racial history. </p>
<p>The Eastern Virginia Medical School yearbook photo <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/virginia-gov-ralph-northams-yearbook-page-shows-blackface-kkk-photo/2747748002/">shows a man in blackface standing next to a person in Ku Klux Klan</a> attire. This image, nearly three decades old, ignited a chain of nationwide commentary on the current state of American race relations. </p>
<p>The photo represents another sobering reminder of old bigotry in contemporary politics. </p>
<p>And while racist political power is not specific to Virginia, the “Old Dominion” is, and has been, a bellwether for American politics – the good and the bad, but mostly the contradictory. </p>
<p>As a historian of 20th-century American history and <a href="https://www.kentuckypress.com/live/title_detail.php?titleid=4997#.XGc6zC2ZPgE">Richmond, Virginia’s recent political history</a>, these contradictions have contemporary connotations. </p>
<h2>Reconciliation and dehumanization</h2>
<p>Despite its recent history of voting Democratic, ambivalent political traditions continue to characterize the Commonwealth. The home of the Confederacy’s capital, Richmond, also gave the United States its first African-American governor in 1990, <a href="https://www.encyclopediavirginia.org/Wilder_Lawrence_Douglas_1931-">Lawrence Douglas Wilder</a>. </p>
<p>Virginia also <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/campaign-2008/articles/2008/11/04/barack-obama-wins-conservative-virginia">helped elect</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/states/virginia.html">Barack Obama, twice</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259336/original/file-20190215-56232-1h2goz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Virginians voted for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Here, he’s campaigning in 2018 for Democratic candidates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Election-2018-Senate-Kaine-Obama/7679e70f1e0f47e5912babddf8641236/1/0">AP/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But in the late 19th century, Southerners and Virginians met the challenges of slavery’s abolition with legal and social racial separation. This separation, commonly referred to as <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/freedom-riders-jim-crow-laws/">Jim Crow segregation</a>, was not only sanctioned by state laws, many of these laws lasted until the late 1960s. </p>
<p>In other words, Southern black Americans were not full citizens of the United States until the 1960s and Jim Crow mitigated many African-Americans’ upwardly mobile aspirations. </p>
<p>Northam, who campaigned on racial reconciliation yet allegedly once wore a costume inextricably linked to black dehumanization, embodies this American dilemma – a dilemma with deeply segregationist overtones. </p>
<p>That Virginia, the wealthiest state of the former Confederacy, has recently turned blue is a watershed moment in American political development. </p>
<p>When the Commonwealth went for Obama in the 2008 presidential election, Virginians ended nearly four decades of conservative control over Southern presidential politics. Virginia also cast all its 13 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dailyprogress.com/opinion/opinion-commentary-changing-demographics-also-shift-virginia-politics/article_1a62feea-e943-11e8-902e-cfa9dbe87f1c.html">Much of this is attributable</a> to the growth and diversifying of populations in Northern Virginia near Washington, D.C., the Hampton Roads region and the Richmond metropolitan area. </p>
<p>Virginia’s recent elections undeniably <a href="https://prospect.org/article/end-solid-south">helped shatter the Southern Strategy</a>, a long-term Republican plan designed to break Democrats’ dominance over Southern politics. A region that has trended red since the <a href="https://www.kentuckypress.com/live/title_detail.php?titleid=4997#.XGSoAS2ZPgE">ratification of the Voting Rights Act of 1965</a> had turned blue.</p>
<p>But developments in national politics cannot alone explain Northam’s and Attorney General <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/06/us/politics/virginia-blackface-mark-herring.html">Mark Herring’s</a> ostensibly contradictory behavior. Herring – the state’s third-most powerful elected official – also recently admitted to donning blackface. </p>
<p>If blackface is inextricably linked to slavery, people wearing blackface in the 1980s is attributable to racial segregation. In understanding this crisis, Virginia’s history matters. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259344/original/file-20190215-56243-qqj9by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The April 30, 1904 Richmond Planet described a Jim Crow law meant to bar blacks from streetcars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn84025841/1904-04-30/ed-1/seq-1/#">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Segregation and the suburbs</h2>
<p>Virginia’s 20th-century political history is nothing short of scandalous. </p>
<p>Poll taxes (a fee required to vote) determined who voted in the Commonwealth <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1965/48?page=8">until 1966</a>. Virginia’s Constitutional Convention of 1901-02 eventually erased <a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/4583">80 percent of African-Americans and 50 percent of whites</a> from the polls. Throughout the early 20th century, the Commonwealth had the lowest voter turnout rate in America and one of the lowest rates of any free democracy in the world. By 1959, the year of Northam’s birth, these obstacles to democracy continued to shape politics in the Commonwealth.</p>
<p>The undemocratic face of disenfranchisement had grave implications for Northam’s generation. </p>
<p>In fact, disenfranchisement ensured that mid-20th century Virginians inherited an oligarchy – a small number of people controlled the political structure. </p>
<p>A handful of well-heeled segregationists used disenfranchisement to spearhead Southern <a href="https://www.virginiahistory.org/collections-and-resources/virginia-history-explorer/civil-rights-movement-virginia/massive">“massive resistance”</a> to public school integration in 1956. Anxiety over integration gave rise to unprecedented white flight to suburbs – not just in Virginia, but throughout America. </p>
<p>During the 1950s and 1960s, the same officials used the power vested in the General Assembly to clear urban slums, build freeways – often through communities whose voters had been disenfranchised – and compress the descendants of former slaves into isolated public housing projects. While these urban policies shaped cities throughout the United States, Jim Crow laws and disenfranchisement expedited this process in Virginia (and throughout the South). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.kentuckypress.com/live/title_detail.php?titleid=4997#.XGSoAS2ZPgE">By 1970</a>, Richmond’s poverty rate was 25 percent. African-Americans bore the brunt of that poverty. </p>
<p>The city’s public schools were nearly 80 percent African-American by 1980. In 1985, Richmond trailed only Detroit in murder rate per capita. Between 1970 and 1980 alone, approximately 40,000 whites – of roughly 140,000 in 1970 – fled to Richmond’s suburbs. </p>
<p>In other words, segregationists, along with federal officials, helped create the inner city and suburban growth at the same time.</p>
<h2>Progress isn’t linear</h2>
<p>Americans remember the story of the civil rights movement as a triumph of democracy. History speaks otherwise. </p>
<p>Many of Virginia’s cities were more segregated by race and class in 1980 than in 1960. </p>
<p>In time, segregation undermined the types of social trust – <a href="https://timeline.com/redlining-federal-housing-racist-14d7f48267e8">the notion that people can understand and count on one another</a> – that experts argue is required for thriving communities. </p>
<p>It also explains how students from racially homogeneous communities populated Virginia’s predominantly white colleges during the 1980s.</p>
<p>These were the colleges where students such as Northam wore blackface. The Virginia Military Institute, Northam’s alma mater, <a href="https://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-xpm-19971011-1997-10-11-9710110047-story.html">did not integrate until 1968</a>. That was only 13 years before Northam graduated from the institute in 1981. </p>
<p>These places were in short supply of racial diversity well into the late 20th century. They remind Americans that nowhere have white and black Americans been closer together, yet further apart, than beneath the Mason-Dixon line. </p>
<h2>The new divide</h2>
<p>More ominously, the politics of segregation outlived Jim Crow laws. </p>
<p>By the 1980s, white flight and congressional redistricting (namely, the compression of black voters into exclusively urban enclaves) hastened the rise of regional partisanship. And while this rise in partisanship characterized American politics broadly, it hit the South and Virginia hard – a region that Democrats dominated for nearly seven decades. </p>
<p>As African-Americans hitched their wagons to Democrats, many whites fled the Democratic Party. They left a party that was once home to generations of Southern racists who would never contemplate belonging to Abraham Lincoln’s GOP, and became Republicans. </p>
<p>Virginia’s policymakers drew district boundaries to protect these white areas from the voting power of urbanites, who were mostly black. </p>
<p>In time, residential segregation and redistricting gave rise to shockingly predictable electoral outcomes. Cities trended liberal, while rural and suburban areas mostly voted conservatively. </p>
<p>Between 1970 and 1988, only 13 African-Americans had served on Virginia’s General Assembly. Yet, African-Americans made up nearly 20 percent of Virginia’s population in the 1980s. The total number of African-Americans in the General Assembly did not exceed five until 1984.</p>
<p>To this day, a disproportionate number of the Commonwealth’s legislators are from rural and suburban enclaves. </p>
<h2>Liberal in blackface</h2>
<p>Governor Northam not only inherited this Virginia, he was a product of it.</p>
<p><a href="https://prospect.org/article/end-solid-south">Millennial voters</a> are relocating to once-predominantly African-American cities and the so-called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/12/books/review/the-great-inversion-and-the-future-of-the-american-city.html">“Great Inversion”</a> out of American suburbs continues. </p>
<p>The once “solid South” is up for grabs. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/06/27/ratfcked-the-influence-of-redistricting">Political consultants</a> have long recognized and exploited these changes. In fact, these trends changed the political composition of not just Virginia, but America.</p>
<p>Yet old habits die hard. </p>
<p>The re-emergence of <a href="https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/conversations-about-confederate-monuments-in-the-former-confederate-capital">Confederate memorialization</a> and <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/national/what-happened-charlottesville-looking-back-the-anniversary-the-deadly-rally/fPpnLrbAtbxSwNI9BEy93K/">white supremacy</a> in Virginia is a panic reaction to these political and demographic developments. </p>
<p>Is it any wonder, then, that a son of the segregated Virginia might wear blackface in one era – yet recognize the political expediency of racial reconciliation in another?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111697/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Maxwell Hayter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Virginia’s stark political contradictions, reflecting centuries of racism and a new liberal majority, were on display when a blackface image was found recently on the governor’s old yearbook page.Julian Maxwell Hayter, Associate Professor of Leadership Studies, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065282018-11-07T07:05:28Z2018-11-07T07:05:28ZFlorida restores voting rights to 1.5 million citizens, which might also decrease crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244271/original/file-20181107-74763-a5ouyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People in Miami learn about Amendment 4.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Felons-Rights-Florida/e31d207e65364cbab02ef4c22181bd91/1/0">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voters in Florida approved <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Voting_Rights_Restoration_for_Felons_Initiative_(2018)">a ballot measure</a> on Tuesday that restores voting rights to citizens with felony convictions once they have completed their full sentence.</p>
<p>The newly elected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/20/ron-desantis-on-gambling-charter-schools-differing-from-rick-scott-and-his-concerns-with-student-testing/">opposed the measure called Amendment 4</a>. But more than <a href="https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/Amendments">64 percent of Florida voters</a> voted in favor of the amendment – well above the 60 percent support that was needed for it to pass. This means that <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/">1.5 million U.S. citizens in Florida</a> automatically regained their right to vote, increasing the number of eligible voters in Florida by more than 10 percent overnight. </p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">My research</a> finds that when Virginia restored voting rights, ex-offenders became more trusting of government and the criminal justice system. These attitudes are known to make it easier for citizens to re-enter society after being released from prison and also decrease their tendency to commit additional crimes.</p>
<p>The results from my study in Virginia might give a glimpse of what could be expected in Florida, now that Amendment 4 has passed.</p>
<h2>Florida votes to change its felony disenfranchisement laws</h2>
<p>Before the amendment passed, more than <a href="http://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/6-Million-Lost-Voters.pdf">6 million</a> U.S. citizens did not have the right to vote due to state laws that limited the voting rights of people who have been convicted of a felony. </p>
<p>These felon disenfranchisement laws vary between states. Most states automatically restore voting rights to people after they are released from prison, or after completion of parole or probation. </p>
<p>But Florida was the most strict. Before the November 2018 election, Florida was <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/criminal-disenfranchisement-laws-across-united-states">one of only four states</a> that had no automatic process for restoring voting rights.</p>
<p>Under <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-florida">Florida’s old system</a>, a citizen with a felony conviction could only have their voting rights restored by applying to the <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/clemency.shtml">Executive Clemency Board</a> – a four-member panel including both the governor and the attorney general. The clemency board was allowed to reject applications for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpPyLcQ2vdI">any reason</a>, and was known to ask applicants questions about their family, religion, and even <a href="http://fairelectionsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/Hand-v.-Scott-Complaint.pdf">traffic violations</a>. </p>
<p>Under outgoing Gov. Rick Scott, the clemency board approved <a href="http://fairelectionsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/Hand-v.-Scott-Complaint.pdf">fewer than 2,000 restorations</a> of voting rights over six years. They had a <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/docs/reports/Annual%20Report%202017%20for%20web.pdf">backlog</a> of more than 10,000 applications. </p>
<p>Given these strict laws, more than 1.6 million voting-age citizens in Florida did not have the right to vote – including <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/">more than 1 out of every 5 black citizens</a> statewide. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.fl-counties.com/amendment-4">Amendment 4</a> changed the Florida State Constitution. </p>
<p>Though the newly elected DeSantis <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/20/ron-desantis-on-gambling-charter-schools-differing-from-rick-scott-and-his-concerns-with-student-testing/">opposed Amendment 4</a>, his <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/clemency.shtml">Executive Clemency Board</a> will no longer have power over voting rights for all people previously convicted of felonies. Instead, voting rights will now be automatically restored at the end of an individual’s probation period. This change applies to all felonies except for murder and sex crimes.</p>
<h2>New research from Virginia</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.restore.virginia.gov/">Virginia</a>, an ex-offender can only regain their right to vote if the governor signs an executive order personally restoring their civil rights.</p>
<p>Typically, previous governors waited for people to apply and considered individual applications for restoration <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-virginia">with varying scrutiny</a>. But in 2016 and 2017, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe made the unprecedented move to proactively restore voting rights to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-gov-mcauliffe-says-he-has-broken-us-record-for-restoring-voting-rights/2017/04/27/55b5591a-2b8b-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html?utm_term=.598ed4aa932e">more than 150,000 ex-offenders</a> – more than any other governor in U.S. history.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243596/original/file-20181102-83648-yvc257.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Steve Helber</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I went to Virginia during the November 2017 statewide election, shortly after many new restoration orders had been processed. I <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">recruited a sample of 93 citizens</a> with felony convictions to complete two surveys – one before the election, and one after.</p>
<p>More than 70 percent of these individuals already had their voting rights restored by the governor, but many of them were not aware of their newly restored rights.</p>
<p>I randomly divided them into groups. After the first survey and before the election, individuals in one group were informed about whether their voting rights had been restored. Individuals in another group were not provided with this information. I then compared the attitudes within the two groups before and after the election.</p>
<p>Since many subjects were unaware that their voting rights had already been restored, the study randomly increased information about their new voting rights. Because the two groups being compared are similar in every way – except for the information they received about voting rights – I am able to measure the effects of learning that your right to vote has been restored. </p>
<p>The results?</p>
<p>Citizens who were told whether their voting rights had been restored became more trusting of government and the criminal justice system compared to those who were not provided with this information. They also viewed the U.S. government as more fair and representative. And they became more trusting of the police and more willing to cooperate with law enforcement.</p>
<p>These findings corroborate results from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272694">another study</a> I conducted in November 2014. The earlier study similarly informed some citizens with felony convictions in Ohio that their voting rights had been restored. Compared to another group who was not provided with this information, subjects who were informed that their voting rights had been restored reported higher trust in the government and the police.</p>
<p>These trusting and pro-democratic attitudes <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1996.tb01220.x">are known to help</a> citizens reintegrate into their communities upon release from prison.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/10430-000">Research</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716206286898">suggests</a> <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=205090">citizens</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474510385641">returning from prison</a> reintegrate more successfully if they are able to transition from an identity as a “criminal” to an identity of a “law-abiding citizen.”</p>
<p>Not being allowed to vote creates a lasting stigma that makes it harder for them to see themselves as valuable members of society. On the other hand, being encouraged to vote causes people to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000168">more informed</a> and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272681">more trusting</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Causes_of_Delinquency.html?id=53MNtMqy0fIC">Research on crime</a> also suggests that people are more likely to obey laws when they believe those laws were created through a fair process. Individuals in my study who were informed about their voting rights also perceived the government as more fair and representative. Thus voting rights might make it easier for returning citizens to reintegrate into society, while also reducing the incentives to commit further crimes.</p>
<h2>Lessons for Amendment 4</h2>
<p>Policies regulating the voting rights of ex-offenders have historically been a <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0160323X0503700104">partisan issue</a>, with Democrats supporting voting rights and Republicans supporting voting restrictions. However <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida">a recent study</a> estimated that Amendment 4 was unlikely to provide a significant advantage to either party. </p>
<p>Part of what may explain why Amendment 4 passed is that it had strong <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/florida-felon-vote-bipartisan-df6cff80d5f8/">bipartisan</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/magazine/ex-felons-voting-rights-florida.html">support</a>. One argument that <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3272685">increases support</a> among both sides is that <a href="https://www.lwvfl.org/amendments/amendment4/">restoring voting rights might decrease crime</a>.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3088970">other</a> <a href="https://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1252&context=blrlj">studies</a> that <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195149326.001.0001">have</a> <a href="https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/docs/reports/Recidivism%20Report%202016%20&%202017%20signed.pdf">found</a> a relationship between voting rights and lower crime. But none of them have yet been able to test whether restoring voting rights causes crime to decrease as mine does.</p>
<p>My research provides the first causal evidence that restoring voting rights causes ex-offenders to develop the very attitudes and behaviors that make them more likely to successfully reintegrate into society and avoid returning to crime and prison.</p>
<p>Beyond the effects Amendment 4 might have on voter turnout and electoral outcomes, it could also decrease crime and the costs of the criminal justice system.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an update of a story that was originally published on Oct. 26, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106528/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoria Shineman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows that when ex-offenders are told they’re able to vote, their attitudes about democracy and justice improve.Victoria Shineman, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1052632018-10-23T17:20:53Z2018-10-23T17:20:53ZGeorgia election fight shows that black voter suppression, a southern tradition, still flourishes<p>Georgia’s 2018 midterms have become a battleground for voting rights and election integrity.</p>
<p>After Secretary of State Brian Kemp <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/georgia-sued-placing-thousands-voter-registrations-hold-election-n919526">was sued</a> for suppressing minority votes ahead of the Nov. 6 election, a court <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/03/judge-rules-against-brian-kemp-over-georgia-voting-restrictions-days-before-gubernatorial-election/?utm_term=.f5b822c4f27b">ruled</a> his office must validate the pending voter registrations of 3,000 naturalized citizens. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.apnews.com/fb011f39af3b40518b572c8cce6e906c">50,000 registrations</a> – most filed by African-Americans – remain invalidated as civil rights groups challenge a 2017 Georgia law, administered by Kemp’s office, requiring voter information to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/us/politics/georgia-abrams-kemp-voting.html">match exactly</a> with data from other state agencies. The groups charge that this rule disproportionately impacts blacks and Latinos. </p>
<p>Kemp, the Republican candidate for governor against Democrat <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-stacey-abrams-black-girl-magic-turned-georgia-a-bit-more-blue-97117">Stacey Abrams</a>, has since <a href="https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/kemp-office-investigates-georgia-democrats-after-alleged-hacking-attempt/VyyeNgNH4NN6xaXUOfl8HL/">launched an investigation</a> into the Democratic Party, alleging without evidence that Democrats tried to hack into Georgia’s voter rolls.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://nyupress.org/books/9780814763698/">scholar of African-American history</a>, I recognize an old story in these electoral controversies. Georgia, like many southern states, has suppressed black voters ever since the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/ourdocs/15thamendment.html">15th Amendment</a> gave African-American men the right to vote in 1870. </p>
<p>The tactics have simply changed over time.</p>
<h2>Democrats’ southern strategy</h2>
<p>With black populations ranging from 25 percent to nearly 60 percent of southern state populations, black voting power upended politics as usual after the Civil War. </p>
<p>During Reconstruction, well over 1,400 African-Americans were elected to local, state and federal office, 16 of whom <a href="https://lsupress.org/books/detail/freedom-s-lawmakers/">served in Congress</a>. </p>
<p>Loyal to President Abraham Lincoln, whose <a href="https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/featured-documents/emancipation-proclamation">Emancipation Proclamation</a> sounded the death knell for slavery, black Americans flocked to the Republican Party. Back then, it was the more liberal of the United States’ two mainstream political parties.</p>
<p>Southern Democrats fought back, using both <a href="http://www.umich.edu/%7Elawrace/disenfranchise1.htm">violence and legislation</a>. </p>
<p>White paramilitary groups like the Ku Klux Klan and White Leagues <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/grant-kkk/">threatened black candidates</a>, attacked African-American voters, pushed black leaders out of office and toppled Republican governments.</p>
<p>After establishing single-party control over the South, white Democrats in the late 1800s instituted a poll tax, making voting too expensive for former slaves and their descendants. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/archive/html/vce/features/0503_01/smith.html">White primaries</a>” excluded blacks from choosing candidates in primary elections. </p>
<p>These attacks proved effective. Between 1896 and 1904, the number of black men who voted in Louisiana plummeted from <a href="http://americanhistory.si.edu/brown/history/1-segregated/white-only-1.html">130,000 to 1,342</a>.</p>
<p>After North Carolina U.S. Rep. George White retired, in 1901, the South would send no African-Americans to Congress until the <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/rooted-reconstruction-first-wave-black-congressmen/">1972 election</a>.</p>
<h2>Voter suppression in Jim Crow Mississippi</h2>
<p>In the early 20th century, many black Americans voted with their feet, migrating north and west.</p>
<p>Around the same time, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s <a href="http://rooseveltinstitute.org/african-americans-and-new-deal-look-back-history/">New Deal</a> – which instituted racial quotas in hiring for federal public work projects and included policies aimed at reducing inequality – was shifting northern black voters’ allegiance to the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>Black voters in northern cities began putting African-American Democrats into congressional office. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241701/original/file-20181022-105761-9vagls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An 1879 cartoon in Harper’s Magazine satirizes the requirement that African-Americans pass a literacy test to vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/The_color_line_still_exists%E2%80%94in_this_case_cph.3b29638.jpg">U.S. Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But they did not give up on the South, pressing the Supreme Court to reaffirm voting rights in the 1944 case <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/321/649/">Smith v. Allwright</a>, which prohibited white-only primaries. </p>
<p>But black voter suppression remained deeply entrenched in the South. Several states required new voters to complete <a href="https://www.crmvet.org/info/lithome.htm">literacy tests</a> before they could cast a ballot. In the 1880s, 76 percent of southern blacks were <a href="https://www.nber.org/chapters/c8792.pdf">illiterate</a>, versus 21 percent of whites. </p>
<p>Strategies for excluding black voters <a href="https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2861&context=ndlr">evolved along with federal law</a>.</p>
<p>In reaction to <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/347/483">Brown v. Board of Education</a>, which in 1954 overturned “separate but equal” segregation laws, Mississippi in the same year modified its poll test. It asked voters to interpret a section of the state’s constitution, authorizing county registrars to determine whether the applicant’s answer was “reasonable.”</p>
<p>Virtually all African-Americans, regardless of education or performance, failed.</p>
<p>Within a year, the number of blacks registered to vote in Mississippi dropped from 22,000 to 12,000 – a mere <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/catalog/47qng2nh9780252065071.html">2 percent of eligible black voters</a>. </p>
<p>Political violence – including the 1955 attempted assassination of voting rights activist Gus Courts and murder of <a href="https://blackthen.com/rev-george-w-lee-murdered-for-not-giving-up-his-right-to-vote/">George W. Lee</a> – accompanied the legal restrictions, showing the cost of black political independence.</p>
<h2>Fighting for the vote</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.ucpress.edu/book.php?isbn=9780520251762">Activists</a> were not deterred. The Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee and the Congress of Racial Equality continued to wage <a href="https://snccdigital.org/events/sncc-voter-registration-arkansas-delta/">grassroots voter registration campaigns</a> and fight for official representation in the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>In 1964, a <a href="http://www.wisconsinhistory.org/whspress/books/book.asp?book_id=432">new political party</a>, the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party, was founded to <a href="http://www.beacon.org/Radical-Equations-P283.aspx">welcome</a> “sharecroppers, farmers and ordinary working people.”</p>
<p>The Freedom Democratic Party elected 68 delegates to attend the 1964 Democratic National Convention in Atlantic City, New Jersey, hoping to transform the <a href="http://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/catalog/47qng2nh9780252065071.html">all-white Mississippi delegation</a>. </p>
<p>Trying to broker a deal, national Democratic leaders extended Mississippi’s Freedom Democrats two nonvoting at-large seats at the convention – a minor concession that led most white Mississippi party members to walk out in protest.</p>
<p>Freedom Democrats rejected the two seats as tokenism, holding a sit-in on the convention floor in Atlantic City to highlight the lack of black political representation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134161/original/image-20160815-13011-2br9so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134161/original/image-20160815-13011-2br9so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134161/original/image-20160815-13011-2br9so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134161/original/image-20160815-13011-2br9so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134161/original/image-20160815-13011-2br9so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134161/original/image-20160815-13011-2br9so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134161/original/image-20160815-13011-2br9so.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aaron Henry, chair of the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party delegation, speaks at the Democratic National Convention in 1964.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://cdn.loc.gov/service/pnp/ppmsca/04200/04299v.jpg">Library of Congress/Warren K. Leffler</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Black voters make gains</h2>
<p>Over time, the civil rights movement sparked a political shift that dramatically changed the U.S. electorate.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxiv">24th Amendment</a> outlawed poll taxes in 1964, abolishing a major barrier to black enfranchisement in the South. Literacy tests, too, were restricted, under the 1965 <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/history-federal-voting-rights-laws">Voting Rights Act</a>.</p>
<p>The Voting Rights Act also established federal oversight of voting laws to ensure equal access to elections, particularly in the South.</p>
<p>By the early 21st century, African-Americans constituted a majority of the <a href="https://www-jstor-org.ezproxy.auctr.edu:2050/stable/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2004.00287.x?Search=yes&resultItemClick=true&searchText=merle&searchText=black&searchText=transformation&searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch%3FQuery%3Dmerle%2Bblack%2Btransformation%26amp%3Bacc%3Don%26amp%3Bwc%3Don%26amp%3Bfc%3Doff%26amp%3Bgroup%3Dnone&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">registered Democrats</a> in Deep South states from South Carolina to Louisiana. They turn out in high numbers and have been key voters for <a href="https://theconversation.com/black-voters-won-alabama-for-the-dems-heres-what-they-need-in-return-89138">getting Democrats into office</a> in the conservative-dominated South.</p>
<h2>Voter suppression today</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, Republican lawmakers have chipped away at the last century’s advances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/voting-rights-become-a-proxy-war-in-the-2016-presidential-election-43431">enacting voter ID laws</a> that make it harder to vote.</p>
<p>Claiming they seek to deter election fraud, some 20 states have restricted early voting or passed laws requiring people to show government ID before voting. </p>
<p>Voter identification laws have <a href="http://today.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FullReportVoterIDJune20141.pdf">hidden costs</a>, research shows. </p>
<p>Getting a government ID means traveling to state agencies, acquiring birth certificates and taking time off work. That puts it out of reach for many, a kind of 21st-century poll tax.</p>
<p>Federal and state courts have <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/8/4/12369778/voter-restrictions-id-laws-supreme-court">overturned</a> such laws in some states, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-voterid-idUSKCN11G020">Georgia</a>, North Carolina and North Dakota, citing their harmful effect on African-American and Native American voters. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court in 2008 deemed Indiana’s voter ID law a <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/legal-work/crawford-v-marion-county-election-board">valid deterrent</a> to voter fraud. </p>
<p>Perhaps most damaging to black voters was a 2013 Supreme Court decision that weakened the Voting Rights Act. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241699/original/file-20181022-105757-v7yanq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241699/original/file-20181022-105757-v7yanq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241699/original/file-20181022-105757-v7yanq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241699/original/file-20181022-105757-v7yanq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241699/original/file-20181022-105757-v7yanq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241699/original/file-20181022-105757-v7yanq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241699/original/file-20181022-105757-v7yanq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Voting Rights Act of 1965 stopped southern districts from changing laws to exclude black voters – but only temporarily.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/LyndonJohnson_signs_Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965.jpg">Lyndon B. Johnson Library</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/06/25/us/annotated-supreme-court-decision-on-voting-rights-act.html?_r=0">Shelby County v. Holder</a> ended 48 years of federal oversight of southern voting laws, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/12pdf/12-96_6k47.pdf">concluding</a> that the requirement relied on “40-year-old facts that have no logical relation to the present day.” </p>
<p>Current events show that voter suppression is hardly a thing of the past. </p>
<p>From Georgia’s voter registration scandal to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/how-voter-suppression-threatens-our-democracy/2018/09/20/c1dd3b8a-aad3-11e8-b1da-ff7faa680710_story.html?utm_term=.18365c3d441d">gerrymandered districts</a> that <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/federal-court-rules-north-carolina-legislative-districts-are-racially-gerrymandered">dilute minority voting power</a>, millions may be shut out of November’s midterms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frederick Knight does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Georgia’s secretary of state has stalled voter registrations and accused Democrats of hacking. His tactics recall past efforts in the South to suppress black votes, from poll taxes to literacy testsFrederick Knight, Associate Professor of History, Morehouse CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1008592018-08-01T12:47:11Z2018-08-01T12:47:11ZVoter ID: our first results suggest local election pilot was unnecessary and ineffective<p>The 2018 local elections in England were surrounded by a fierce debate over a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/voter-id-pilots">pilot</a> requiring voters to present ID at polling stations. The government had argued that a clampdown on security was needed, because it was concerned about ongoing electoral fraud in polling stations. </p>
<p>It’s important to have neutral evidence to judge these claims. We think our findings from the largest ever survey on electoral integrity at UK polling stations can help to achieve this.</p>
<p>Following up on a <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/clark-james-poll-workers.pdf">2015 survey</a>, we conducted a survey of the staff managing polling stations across England, issuing ballot papers and sealing up ballot boxes at the 2018 local elections. We asked if they had suspicions that electoral fraud was taking place and whether party agents were acting within electoral law. We also asked if voters were turned away. The survey was circulated in 42 local authorities that were not piloting voter ID and there were 2,274 responses.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Electoral Commission was <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/244950/May-2018-voter-identification-pilots-evaluation-report.pdf">evaluating the pilots</a>, posing identical questions in the five local authorities asking voters for ID.</p>
<p>We are currently working on the analysis of the data and a full write up will be made publicly available on the website <a href="http://www.electoralmanagement.com">www.electoralmanagement.com</a> (or on request). However, we are able to provide some early and important findings.</p>
<h2>Voter fraud? What voter fraud?</h2>
<p>Drawing just from our own data, Table 1 reports the percentage of respondents who encountered at least one instance of a problem that is commonly thought to occur on polling day. Suspected cases of electoral fraud – the problem that voter identification is designed to eradicate – are exceptionally rare. Nearly all (99%) of respondents didn’t suspect that fraud had taken place in their polling station. Those that did, often implied that it might have been through administrative error rather than deliberate manipulation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230063/original/file-20180731-136673-cyj2za.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voter ID in practice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Instead, the most widespread problem was voters being turned away from polling stations because their name was not on the electoral register. Over half (52%) turned away at least one voter. The reasons for this included a citizen going to the wrong polling station, perhaps because changes to polling boundaries had taken place and they hadn’t checked their polling card. In some cases, it might have been because they think they can just go to the one nearest their home or the train station. These will be familiar stories for experienced electoral officials, but we now have an overall picture of the problem.</p>
<p>There are other areas of concern. These should also feature much higher up the government’s agenda than the problem voter ID was deigned to fix. The way people behave at polling stations was more of a problem – although even this is still uncommon. Respondents pointed to how ballot secrecy could be compromised by voters talking over voting booths. As one respondent reported, there were “men telling women who were standing in polling booths how to vote, and in loud voices”. Equally, in a few instances there were problems with, as one respondent put it, “Parking outside, with groups of supporters gathering … police had to be called”.</p>
<p>Most disabled voters didn’t seem to have a problem voting but 14% of poll workers did encounter a disabled voter having a problem completing their ballot paper. The suitability of polling stations was sometimes questioned.</p>
<p>The Electoral Commission and the government have deemed the pilots to be a success on the basis that it tightened up a security loophole. Indeed, most poll workers, responding to the <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/244950/May-2018-voter-identification-pilots-evaluation-report.pdf">Electoral Commission survey</a>, stated that it improved security. However, it is notable that the percentage of poll workers who had suspected cases of electoral fraud in the areas that piloted voter ID, was exactly the same as those that did not. In both cases, it was just 1%. Further analysis will follow, but voter ID requirements simply don’t seem to be reducing cases of electoral fraud, presumably because they are so few and far between.</p>
<p>We think that regular surveys of poll workers will help to bring more evidence to the debates that surround electoral policy in the UK. As it stands, there doesn’t seem to be any evidence of electoral fraud in polling stations to warrant this being the main focus of government policy.</p>
<p>The Electoral Reform Society and opposition parties in parliament have claimed that the introduction of voter identification would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/voter-id-trials-could-disenfranchise-older-people">disenfranchise voters</a>. In recent weeks, we have seen renewed debate with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/30/compulsory-voter-id-uk-government-urged-halt-plans-vulnerable-disadvantaged-charities-warn">an open letter of 20 charities</a> calling for compulsory ID checks to be halted because vulnerable people would be affected. Cross-national evidence shows that <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gb/book/9780230308428">voter ID requirements can reduce voter turnout</a>. This is not just an unnecessary diversion of resources, but something that can be harmful.</p>
<p>The greater proportion of problems are with the convenience of registering and voting. The electoral process therefore needs to be modernised to fix this. That might involve voters being allowed to cast at any polling station with <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/getting-the-e28098missing-millions_-on-to-the-electoral-register-report-appg-on-democratic-participation-bite-the-ballot-dr-toby-james-clearview-research-2016-1.pdf">electronic poll books and automatic registration</a>. Likewise, measures to increase accessibility and address behavioural issues in and around polling stations. The government should therefore halt the implementation of voter ID, and press ahead in the areas where there is evidence of a problem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby’s research has been externally funded by the British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, AHRC, ESRC, Nuffield Foundation and the McDougall Trust. He has written commissioned policy reports for national and international organisations and given invited evidence to Parliamentary committees. He is currently a Fellow to the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Democratic Participation and Advisor to the Law Commission's Review of Electoral Law. He is also on the Scientific Board for Electoral Expert Review.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alistair Clark has previously received funding from the British Academy/Leverhulme Trust for research into poll workers. </span></em></p>There are far more pressing problems that need to be fixed in the electoral process.Toby James, Senior Lecturer in British & Comparative Politics, University of East AngliaAlistair Clark, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/954672018-04-24T11:09:53Z2018-04-24T11:09:53ZWill Windrush citizens also lose their voting rights? Researchers will be watching to find out<p>Theresa May’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/statement-from-the-new-prime-minister-theresa-may">first words</a> as prime minister on the steps of Downing Street signalled that she would put “fighting against burning injustice” at the heart of her political agenda. Highlighting inequalities across the lines of ethnicity, class, gender and age, she set out her “mission to make Britain a country that works for everyone”.</p>
<p>These bold ambitions have been put under scrutiny as details have emerged about the way May’s government has treated people who moved to the UK from the Caribbean between the 1940s and 1970s. The Home Office didn’t keep records for many of those members of the so-called <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43782241">“Windrush generation”</a> and, in 2010, their landing cards were destroyed by the Home Office. Changes to the law subsequently required to them have this paperwork to work, receive benefits, access healthcare and many have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/windrush-generation-the-history-of-unbelonging-95021">left feeling unwanted</a> and concerned about their futures in the UK. Bureaucracy and paperwork, boring as it may sound, can make a fundamental difference to our lives.</p>
<p>Now some of these same people may also be prompted for paperwork when wanting to exercise their democratic rights. For the first time in British elections, citizens will be asked to prove their identity at the polling station before being able to vote in the 2018 local elections in England. For now, it’s just a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/voter-id-pilots">pilot</a> and only five authorities will take part. But the government has set a trajectory that will see it steam ahead with expanding this policy. Its <a href="https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/2017-manifestos/Conservative+Manifesto+2017.pdf">2017 election manifesto</a> vowed to “legislate to ensure that a form of identification must be presented before voting”.</p>
<p>We’ll be monitoring the pilots to see if it does end up limiting the rights of certain groups. </p>
<h2>A worthwhile exercise?</h2>
<p>Rather than stamping out “bogus immigrants” the aim of introducing voter ID is to stamp out electoral fraud. Electoral fraud, however, isn’t really a problem at polling stations. Alongside <a href="http://www.ncl.ac.uk/gps/staff/profile/alistairclark.html">Alistair Clark</a>, we found in a <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/clark-james-poll-workers.pdf">recent study</a> of the 2015 general election, that less than 1% of the officials working in polling stations were concerned that there might have been a problem with fraud in their location. Where there were concerns, polling officials stressed that this was often due to a lack of understanding of the voter, rather than any deliberate attempt to manipulate the process. For example, one Lithuanian citizen was confused that she couldn’t vote in the general election, even though she could in local and European elections. Can you blame her?</p>
<p>Instead, a far greater problem was people asking to vote who were not on the register, presumably because they were not registered or had gone to wrong polling station. Over two thirds of polling stations turned away at least one citizen from voting because their name was not on the electoral register. In other words, paperwork and bureaucracy can deny people their democratic right.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230308428">evidence</a> is that voter identification can be another bureaucratic barrier to the exercise of the right to vote. The effect varies a lot. It depends on how tough the identification requirements are, how it is administered, the level education about the paperwork requirements and whether activist groups launch counter mobilisation efforts to get those who might be left out to the polling stations.</p>
<p>The simple truth, however, is that the more bureaucratic you make the voting process, the less likely that people vote. Voter ID reforms can systematically disadvantage those groups who are less likely to have whatever form of ID is required.</p>
<h2>Fact checking the government’s response</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/voter-id-documents-polling-electoral-fraud-chloe-smith-a8317341.html">minister</a> in charge of this matter and the <a href="https://www.localgov.co.uk/Whitehall-defends-voter-ID-reform-against-accusations-of-discrimination/45171">Cabinet Office</a> have responded that it is “simply not the case” that voter ID could prevent eligible people from voting. After all, the system works in Northern Ireland where it was rolled out 15 years ago. And ID is required to “collect a parcel from the post office, rent a car, or travel abroad”. So why not voting?</p>
<p>The Northern Ireland analogy is a red herring, however. In Northern Ireland citizens are given <a href="http://www.eoni.org.uk/Electoral-Identity-Card/Electoral-Identity-Card-FAQs">free electoral identity cards</a> to ensure that people are not turned away from the polls without casting their vote. That was the system that the Electoral Commission recommended for Britain. The government <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2016/12/28/voter-id-is-a-risky-reform-when-8m-people-are-already-missing-from-the-electoral-register/">said</a> this would be too great a “financial and administrative burden”. There have also not been any studies to test how many would-be voters have been turned away at polling stations in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>Although paperwork is needed for other tasks – and as exciting as collecting a parcel is from the post office – they’re not as time sensitive as voting. Voting hours on polling are restricted. There is no voting the next day. So being turned away for forgetting your ID or not having the right ID is much more likely to mean game over for a voter.</p>
<p>Since 2010, the government has placed the burden of proving voter identity on the citizen. The first step in registering to vote is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41293-018-0085-9">providing your national insurance number</a> . This would then be checked against a government database before eligible citizens would be added. A combination of voter registration drives from civil society groups, other simultaneous changes and high profile electoral contests have kept registration rates temporarily high. But under those reforms, registration rates among the elderly rose, registration rates among the <a href="http://fabians.org.uk/missing-millions/">young dropped</a>.</p>
<p>The government has been accused of being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/22/few-tories-grasp-windrush-flaws-hostile-environment-immigration">slow to respond</a> to evidence as cases emerged with the Windrush row. Evidence will be readily available with the pilots. The Electoral Commission is under a statutory requirement to evaluate the pilots and those assessments alongside other research must be carefully listened to.</p>
<p>Alistair Clark and I also have a survey in the field in non-pilot areas that will produce more evidence. Whichever direction this is in, May must be prepared to change course if citizens are denied their right to vote to ensure that the UK really does have a democracy that works for everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby’s research has been externally funded by the British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, AHRC, ESRC, Nuffield Foundation and the McDougall Trust. He has written commissioned policy reports for national and international organisations and given invited evidence to Parliamentary committees. He is currently a Fellow to the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Democratic Participation and Advisor to the Law Commission's Review of Electoral Law. He is also on the Scientific Board for Electoral Expert Review.</span></em></p>A pilot requiring some voters to show ID in May’s local elections could be the next blow for the Windrush generation.Toby James, Senior Lecturer in British & Comparative Politics, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/890962017-12-18T12:18:42Z2017-12-18T12:18:42ZVoter ID plans could disenfranchise millions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199006/original/file-20171213-27558-14t75i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Everyone welcome?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PA/Peter Byrne</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amid mounting concerns about electoral fraud, the Electoral Commission recommended in 2014 that people in Great Britain should have to <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/164609/Electoral-fraud-review-final-report.pdf">prove their identity</a> when voting.</p>
<p>The 2017 Conservative party <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto">manifesto</a> pledged to “legislate to ensure that a form of identification must be presented before voting”. To test the waters for this, the Cabinet Office recently revealed that a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/voter-id-pilot-to-launch-in-local-elections">pilot study</a> would be conducted in the May 2018 local elections. ID will be required at polling stations in five areas of England: Bromley, Gosport, Slough, Watford and Woking.</p>
<p>This gradual drive towards compulsory voter identification in Great Britain (it’s already compulsory in <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1985/2/pdfs/ukpga_19850002_en.pdf">Northern Ireland</a>) has encountered some strong opposition from <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/campaigns/upgrading-our-democracy/voter-id/">campaign groups</a>. The <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/05/government-s-plan-voter-id-attack-labour-voters">Labour party</a> has also argued that its traditional voter demographic will be the most affected by the reforms.</p>
<p>The debate around compulsory ID has been most intense in places where disenfranchisement has been a widespread problem in the past – most notably the <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx">US</a>. There has been a distinct lack of scrutiny in much of Europe, even though several countries already require ID. This divergence is to some extent understandable. The blatant racial discrimination that has shaped much of the political and social history of the US has added to concern that voter ID is leading to disenfranchisement among minority groups. </p>
<p>However one must not forget that it took many centuries for the voting franchise in the UK to be expanded beyond a narrow circle of wealthy, middle and upper class men. It was not until relatively recently that women, the young and the working class were allowed to vote. We must be alert to anything that could reverse that expansion. </p>
<h2>‘Restoring confidence’ in democracy</h2>
<p>According to the 2017 Conservative party manifesto, voter ID is needed to ensure that the public has “confidence” in democracy. While electoral fraud undoubtedly has the potential to shake the public’s confidence in the democratic process, even if conducted on a low scale with little bearing upon election results, we must put things into perspective. Of the 51.4m votes cast in the various elections in 2015 in the entire UK, there were 481 allegations of electoral fraud. Of those, only 123 concerned the actual <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/198533/Fraud-allegations-data-report-2015.pdf">voting process</a>. This figure includes not just impersonation but also breaches of secrecy, tampering with ballot papers, bribery and treating (providing refreshments or entertainment to “corruptly influence”) or undue influence.</p>
<p>Should the government press ahead, the implications for certain members of the electorate could be drastic, depending on how strict the identification requirements are. According to the Electoral Commission’s own estimates, about <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/194719/Proof-of-identity-scheme-updated-March-2016.pdf">7.5% of the electorate</a> (3.5m electors) in Great Britain do not own one of the forms of identification that the commission recommended should be required to vote in polling stations. If only passports, photographic driving licences and Oyster photocards were to be accepted, this would leave 13% of the electorate (6m electors) unable to vote.</p>
<p>If only passports and photographic driving licences were to be accepted, the commission estimated that 24% of the electorate (11m electors) would be unable to vote. Some of these documents are, of course, particularly expensive forms of government-issued identification. They may be unaffordable to those with limited means and many UK citizens do not need them in the first place so would have to buy them specifically to vote.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199008/original/file-20171213-27572-1uw5l0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199008/original/file-20171213-27572-1uw5l0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199008/original/file-20171213-27572-1uw5l0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199008/original/file-20171213-27572-1uw5l0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199008/original/file-20171213-27572-1uw5l0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199008/original/file-20171213-27572-1uw5l0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199008/original/file-20171213-27572-1uw5l0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ID doesn’t come for free.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other worrying questions concern the likely impact of strict identification on minority groups who are statistically less likely to possess certain forms of identification. For example, according to the <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/194719/Proof-of-identity-scheme-updated-March-2016.pdf">2011 census</a>, only 66% of people who identify as white gypsy or Irish travellers hold eligible passports. That compares to 83% of white English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British people and 85% of mixed/multiple ethnic groups (white and black Caribbean).</p>
<p>Women, young people and the elderly are also far less likely to possess a driving licence than others. At the most extreme, recent statistics compiled by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/nts02-driving-licence-holders">Department of Transport</a> revealed that in England, 91% of males aged 50-59 own driving licences in comparison to just 29% of females aged 17-20.</p>
<p>Bearing these concerns in mind, it is reassuring that the Electoral Commission has recommended that a free form of photographic identification should be available for voters in Great Britain, similar to the <a href="http://www.eoni.org.uk/Electoral-Identity-Card/How-to-apply">Electoral Identity Card</a> used in Northern Ireland. Nevertheless, if care is not taken to simplify the application process, <a href="http://www.brennancenter.org/publication/challenge-obtaining-voter-identification">recent experience in the US</a> suggests that there can be considerable hidden costs when it comes to acquiring such documentation.</p>
<p>If universal and equal suffrage is to be genuinely preserved in Great Britain, it is imperative that there are no financial obstacles when it comes to voting or when acquiring the documentation required to vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Stanford is a member of the Labour Party. </span></em></p>If only expensive documents such as passports are acceptable forms of identification at polling stations, many people may be denied their democratic rights. Free voter cards are essential.Ben Stanford, Lecturer in Law, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/868892017-11-07T03:25:22Z2017-11-07T03:25:22ZTwo big problems with American voting that have nothing to do with Russian hacking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193473/original/file-20171106-1041-b3hljk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who gets to vote?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/elections-voting-politics-illustration-hands-leaving-442602781">Mikko Lemola/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past year, the public discussion on election security and integrity <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/new-poll-54-americans-think-trumps-dealings-russia-unethical-illegal">has focused</a> on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/23/obama-cia-warning-russia-election-hack-report">concerns</a> about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/us/politics/jeh-johnson-testimony-russian-election-hacking.html?_r=0">foreign meddling in U.S. elections</a>. The <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/11/02/561446855/tough-questions-hours-of-hearings-but-no-silver-bullet-on-russian-tech-interfere">evidence is still coming in</a> about which countries did what to influence both <a href="https://www.recode.net/2017/10/31/16587174/fake-ads-news-propaganda-congress-facebook-twitter-google-tech-hearing">the public</a> and the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/23/what-we-know-about-the-21-states-targeted-by-russian-hackers/">election itself</a>. The American people have been left with a vague sense of disquiet – that something untoward was likely attempted, the results of which are unknown.</p>
<p>I first started studying election security during the lead-up to the 2004 presidential election, when researchers <a href="https://www.salon.com/2004/02/10/diebold_copyright">revealed serious security flaws in voting machines</a> – and found out how hard their manufacturer would work to keep the problems secret. Most of the efforts to protect elections have focused on <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-vulnerable-to-hacking-is-the-us-election-cyber-infrastructure-63241">technical cybersecurity</a> to thwart hackers. But as someone who researches technical innovations, it’s clear to me that the 2016 presidential election results were most affected by social and political forces, not technological shortcomings.</p>
<p>These problems with America’s voting system did not materialize out of the blue, and certainly were not orchestrated by foreign powers. Rather, the election results were skewed by two longstanding, systematic, often racially motivated, well-resourced efforts: <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-supreme-court-takes-on-gerrymandering-6-essential-reads-79822">election district gerrymandering</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-voting-both-simple-and-secure-is-a-challenge-for-democracies-85903">voter disenfranchisement</a>.</p>
<p>To ensure that all Americans can trust the accuracy and integrity of the 2018 election results, officials and communities nationwide must guard against foreign tampering, to be sure. But more importantly, they must prevent misuse of political power to mute citizens’ voices at the ballot box in anti-democratic ways.</p>
<h2>Fixing the elections, district by district</h2>
<p>Political campaigns <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2017/10/politicians_are_addicted_to_big_data_like_it_s_campaign_cash.html">collect more and more digital data</a> about Americans and their communities. They <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/06/the-ceo-of-cambridge-analytica-plans-a-book-on-its-methods-and-the-us-election/">analyze political trends and people’s voting tendencies</a>. Using this knowledge, politicians have systematically drawn voting districts in ways that dilute the power of their opponent’s party. </p>
<p>The result has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/rebooting-the-mathematics-behind-gerrymandering-73096">custom-designed voting districts</a> dominated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-partisan-gerrymandering-illegal-the-supreme-court-will-decide-84241">either Democratic or Republican</a> voters. This division ensures that American democracy is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/">far less representative</a> than it could be. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2017/10/democratic_oregon_is_part_of_g.html">Both parties</a> have engaged in this type of behavior, but current political maps were overwhelmingly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/06/republicans-and-democrats-both-try-to-gerrymander-but-only-one-of-them-is-any-good-at-it/">drawn by Republicans</a> to benefit their party. When the Associated Press analyzed the 2016 congressional election results, it found that gerrymandering gave Republicans “<a href="https://www.apnews.com/fa6478e10cda4e9cbd75380e705bd380">as many as 22 additional U.S. House seats</a>” more than they would have won in a fairer election system. In fact, the AP concluded, “even if Democrats had turned out in larger numbers, their chances of substantial legislative gains were limited by gerrymandering.”</p>
<p>That’s just not the way a representative democracy should work.</p>
<h2>Stopping individuals from voting</h2>
<p>Another threat to voting fairness comes from limits on who is even allowed to vote. People’s right to vote differs by state, and many states have chosen to systematically disenfranchise poor, minority and overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning constituencies. Many of today’s voting laws have similar effects as those in the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/african-american-odyssey/free-blacks-in-the-antebellum-period.html">South before the Civil War</a> or in the <a href="http://americanhistory.si.edu/brown/history/1-segregated/white-only-1.html">Jim Crow era</a>.</p>
<p>For example, individuals with a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/opinion/the-racist-origins-of-felon-disenfranchisement.html">felony conviction</a> on their criminal record, but who have served their time and been released from prison, can vote in some states but not others. The ACLU has found that this <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/criminal-disenfranchisement-laws-across-united-states">hodgepodge of state laws</a> has resulted in <a href="https://www.aclu.org/issues/voting-rights/criminal-re-enfranchisement/state-criminal-re-enfranchisement-laws-map">5.85 million Americans being disenfranchised</a> – 2 percent of the U.S. voting population. This barrier <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/opinion/the-racist-origins-of-felon-disenfranchisement.html">disproportionately blocks black men</a>: <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=121724">13 percent</a> of them can’t vote.</p>
<p>In addition, laws requiring people to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/02/how-voter-id-laws-discriminate-study/517218/">present official identification</a> when registering to vote, or when voting, are much more likely to <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voter-id">prevent legitimate voters</a> from casting ballots. Voter ID rules are often justified as efforts to <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/288302-gop-platform-calls-for-tough-voter-id-laws">prevent election fraud</a>, which study after study has found <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/05/us/voter-id-laws-donald-trump.html">doesn’t</a> <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/voter-fraud">happen</a> in any <a href="https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/08/21/20078/review-key-states-voter-id-laws-found-no-voter-impersonation-fraud">significant</a> <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/everything-youve-ever-wanted-to-know-about-voter-id-laws">way</a>.</p>
<p>Not only do these strict voter ID laws <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/everything-youve-ever-wanted-to-know-about-voter-id-laws">reduce overall voter turnout</a>, but studies have shown they do so <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/347821649/Priorities-USA-Voter-Suppression-Memo">in unfair ways</a>, specifically lowering “African-American turnout and … Democratic vote share.” A <a href="http://pages.ucsd.edu/%7Ezhajnal/page5/documents/voterIDhajnaletal.pdf">study from the University of California, San Diego</a> found: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“<a href="http://pages.ucsd.edu/%7Ezhajnal/page5/documents/voterIDhajnaletal.pdf">Democratic turnout drops by an estimated 7.7 percentage points</a> in general elections when strict photo identification laws are in place. By comparison, the predicted drop for Republicans is only 4.6 points. … The skew for political ideology is even more severe. For strong liberals the estimated drop in turnout in strict photo identification states is an alarming 10.7 percentage points. By contrast, the drop for strong conservatives is estimated to be only 2.8 points.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-north-carolina-voting-20160505-story.html">Other restrictions</a>, such as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting/506963/">reducing early voting</a> and preventing people from <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/day-registration-affects-voter-turnout-u-s">registering to vote on Election Day</a>, also limit how many people can vote. Again, these rules disproportionately affect lower-income Americans and people of color. And then there are the millions of Americans living in Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories who <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-11-01/millions-americans-cant-vote-president-because-where-they-live">can’t vote for president</a> at all – and have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/national/fair-representation/">no voting members</a> of Congress.</p>
<h2>Averting future disaster</h2>
<p>A last line of protection for election integrity is the ability to recount votes. However, as mechanical voting equipment from the 20th century is increasingly replaced by software-driven electronic voting machines, recounts of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/fact-sheet-voting-system-security-and-reliability-risks">paper ballots</a> are no longer guaranteed. In my view as a technologist, any modernization of voting equipment should include verifiable paper receipts provided to voters and election officials alike. That way, <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/01/next-election-dont-recount-vote-encrypt/">voters can be sure</a> their votes were cast as they intended, and any concerns or disputes can be easily resolved via an objective, verifiable review process.</p>
<p>Concerns about foreign meddling might be getting more attention than these American-made pitfalls – but ensuring the integrity of national, state and local elections requires paying attention, first and foremost, to the inherent fairness of our democratic processes. Worries about outside tampering shouldn’t be ignored, but rather, they should be kept in perspective. Contemporary election integrity is being undermined far more effectively by domestic threats than by foreign adversaries.</p>
<p>The country stands at a critical crossroads. One path leads toward ever-worsening, data-driven discrimination and disenfranchisement – processes that already affect millions of Americans. The other focuses on ensuring electoral fairness – bolstering the underpinnings of representative democracy and maximally enfranchising a 21st-century body politic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sascha Meinrath does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a year before Election Day 2018, election integrity depends on ensuring fairness and access for American voters. Foreign tampering is a real but less serious concern.Sascha Meinrath, Director of X-Lab; Palmer Chair in Telecommunications, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/776892017-05-26T11:02:30Z2017-05-26T11:02:30ZVoters with learning disabilities are being excluded from this election<p>There are more than 1m people with learning disabilities in the UK and the number is expected to increase. These are people who face exclusion from society more than ever – particularly when it comes to voting. Not enough is done to enable their participation in the most basic democratic right available to British citizens. </p>
<p>The charity <a href="https://www.mencap.org.uk/press-release/accessible-guides-launched-prevent-general-election-being-inaccessible-1-million">Mencap</a> recently found that 70% of people with a learning disability said they want to vote in the future. However, of those surveyed, 64% didn’t vote in the recent local elections, of these 60% because it was too hard to register and 17% because they were turned away from the polling station. This does not amount to being a fair way for thousands of voters who want to be part of the political processes.</p>
<p>People with learning disabilities are often denied paid employment only to face accusations of benefits scrounging when they seek state support. The ruthlessness of the bedroom tax, “fit to work” tests, unescapable poverty, <a href="https://www.turn2us.org.uk/About-Us/News/Third-of-disabled-people-living-in-cold-homes">high energy bills</a>, cuts in care and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/unemployment-benefit-cuts-leave-disabled-unable-meet-basic-costs-mps-warn-a7559301.html">underemployment</a> have ensured that people with disabilities are facing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/09/disabled-people-votes-count-election?CMP=share_btn_tw">terrible times</a> like never before. So hearing their voices is critical – not least in the run up to a general election. So many of the austerity measures implemented since 2010 have affected their lives, it’s surely only right that they are given the opportunity to deliver their verdict on them. </p>
<h2>Voting with a disability</h2>
<p>Before the last election in 2015, the <a href="http://bit.ly/2rLQXps">Electoral Commission</a> made it clear that there should be no barriers to anyone with disabilities who wished to vote. In fact, any voter with a disability is entitled to request assistance to get to their local polling station and help to mark the ballot paper. They can be provided with a large print ballot paper or a tactile voting device, which is fixed to the ballot paper so the visually impaired can vote in secret. </p>
<p>But these are all measures to help with physical disabilities. Where are the specifics for people with learning disabilities? This is unusual considering people with learning disabilities have the same <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/184013/2015.051-EC-voting-factsheet.pdf">right to vote</a> as anyone else. The Electoral Commission is clear that a lack of “mental capacity” is not a reason to prevent someone from voting. Nor is it for anyone else to decide how someone with learning disabilities should vote.</p>
<p>Voting can be <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/general-election-8-june-people-with-a-learning-disability-turned-away-from-polling-stations-1-a7719311.html">extremely difficult</a> for people with learning disabilities. The form to register is not accessible to all, particularly if you cannot read or write. The struggle to get to grips with political jargon and the complicated political leaflets stuffed through the door can also make people with learning disabilities feel alienated.</p>
<p>The stereotypical perception of people with learning disabilities is that they don’t have the capacity to understand what is happening in the world around them. Frankly, this is an old-fashioned, false perception. In fact people with learning disabilities have knowledge and experience to share about <a href="http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/23942">politics</a>, real life experiences, family life, education and healthcare. It’s really more the disabling impact of wider society that ensures people with learning disabilities don’t always have the voice they need and have a right to express.</p>
<h2>Opening up the vote</h2>
<p>There are ways to <a href="https://www.learningdisabilitytoday.co.uk/many-people-with-a-learning-disability-excluded-from-political-process-survey-finds.aspx">change</a> this. Easy read manifestos would be a good start. It would also help if they were published in good time, so that people can spend time considering the proposals the political parties put forward. There should also be more events and hustings that are <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/general-election-8-june-people-with-a-learning-disability-turned-away-from-polling-stations-1-a7719311.html">accessible</a> for people with learning disabilities.</p>
<p>For people with learning disabilities to have a say in their future, access to knowledge, resources and people in politics is vital. This may go some way in turning the dire life situations many of them face into something better.</p>
<p>Overall, for an equal and respectable vote to take place in the general election, marginalised groups, particularly people with learning disabilities, need to be able to fully engage in the political process. People with learning disabilities have knowledge, skills, experiences and perspectives to share like anyone else, and this should be reflected in a vote that effects the lives of everyone in Britain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77689/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Richards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>They’ve been deeply affected by austerity, so it’s more important than ever for people with learning disabilities to have their say on June 8.Michael Richards, Lecturer in Applied Health and Social Care, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679862016-11-02T01:16:28Z2016-11-02T01:16:28ZNeither Clinton nor Trump will fix what ails America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144144/original/image-20161102-14771-1dzjvc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump tours a water plant in Flint, Michigan, in September.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/ Mike Segar</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As an outsider looking in, America’s social, political, economic and environmental systems all appear to be in acute crisis. At their heart is the growing inequality and sense of disenfranchisement amongst the population. This election season has done nothing to inspire me with confidence that America will become more equal after November 8. </p>
<p>The 2016 presidential campaign has in many ways brought the weakness of the American political system into sharp relief. Donald Trump has built his campaign on the exploitation of the social, economic, and racial anxieties of, predominantly, white men without a college degree. And inequality has been acknowledged by Hillary Clinton to be a significant national concern.</p>
<p>Yet neither candidate has acknowledged that growing inequality, which is at the heart of the country’s anxiety, cannot be addressed without radically rethinking how the political, economic, social and environmental systems interact in complex and unpredictable ways.</p>
<p>As the US becomes a more unequal society it raises deeply disturbing questions about the interaction of class and race. It occurs in rural towns and concentrates in cities. Its causes are many, and defy easy or politically attractive solutions. Economic vulnerability is both a consequence of, and contributor to, the systemic crises in America’s political, economic and social systems. It leads to more crime, violence, poor mental and physical health, and deepening political disengagement. </p>
<p>The economic aspect of inequality is obvious. Since the adoption of widespread neo-liberal economic policies and deregulation in the 1970s, both income and wealth inequality have increased dramatically. Wages have stagnated while the cost of living has continued to rise for most Americans. Despite the growing gap between the 1% and everyone else, the language of class is still surprisingly absent from the candidates’ political rhetoric. </p>
<p>Yet inequality is also about race. While much has been made of the white working poor supporting Donald Trump and the grinding poverty many rural whites endure, equal attention must be paid to the horrific levels of poverty and disenfranchisement in African American and Latino communities.</p>
<p>Alongside the economic explanations of inequality, social and environmental factors also need to be analysed. Communities experiencing income stress overwhelmingly experience higher levels of mental and physical health problems, which place greater strain on America’s inadequate health care system. Entrenched racial discrimination in the housing system has led to generational poverty in many cities.</p>
<p>The environmental costs of inequality are numerous. An astonishing number of Americans live with food insecurity and lack access to fresh or healthy food options. Again, this exacerbates poor mental and physical health in these communities. It also has broader implications for the country’s agricultural system - it rewards mass farming of commodities like corn, which is converted to high fructose corn syrup and used in everything from tomato sauce to cereals. America’s obesity epidemic is one the many consequences. </p>
<p>Yet despite the scale and magnitude of the problem, the political class seems unable or unwilling to do anything. The partisan division in Congress has resulted in a completely dysfunctional House and Senate. This is the case at both a national and state level. It’s unrealistic to think that either Trump or Clinton would be able to unite Republicans and Democrats to deal with such complex issues.</p>
<p>Take the water crisis in Flint, Michigan, for example. The lead contamination of the city’s water was the result of multiple failures at the political and environmental level. It has exacerbated already entrenched poverty in the city and added another health problem to a community already dealing with food insecurity, which in turn contributes high levels of obesity, diabetes, and heart problems. </p>
<p>And we know now that Flint is just one small example of the lead contamination of water supplies across the entire country. Addressing the issue requires massive investment and modernisation of America’s water infrastructure. Given the political failure to fix Flint’s water supply, it’s difficult to see how the political class could mobilise on a national scale.</p>
<p>While Hillary Clinton was right to make the crisis a political issue and draw attention the problem, fixing one issue won’t solve Flint’s other social and economic concerns. Indeed, Flint has already fallen off the radar. It’s not clear it will be a priority beyond its use as a political football during election season.</p>
<p>What gets lost in talking about these issues, whether it’s academics or journalists or politicians doing the talking, is the fact that we are speaking about people’s lives and well being. The white working class is made of individual humans with countless motivations and fears, desires and prejudices that no statistical analysis or polling data can convey. Likewise, the black urban poor, or the legal and illegal immigrants whose personalities and individual stories can never be captured in the broad categories to which we consign them.</p>
<p>America’s problems are rural and urban. They are about class and race and gender. They are about health and the economy. These problems are about our environment. Neither Trump’s brand of racist populism, nor Clinton’s commitment to the status quo will likely alter this reality after November.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The sad truth is that neither Trump’s racist populism, or Clinton’s maintenance of the status quo, will do much to help the real and biting difficulties many Americans are facing.Kumuda Simpson, Lecturer in International Relations, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.