tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/donald-trump-10206/articlesDonald Trump – The Conversation2024-03-27T17:06:11Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263502024-03-27T17:06:11Z2024-03-27T17:06:11ZUS election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost<p>American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign.</p>
<p>One source of polarisation that is rarely discussed is the divide between young and old voters at elections. Over the past 50 years, young and old have often supported the same candidate, but in 2024 younger voters are <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-turning-off-tiktok-is-big-risk-for-democrats-heres-why-225942">expected to be particularly important</a>.</p>
<p>In 1971, the 26th amendment of the US constitution changed the minimum voting age from 21 to 18, bringing swathes of new voters to the ballot box. </p>
<p>The 1972 contest was a challenge for both parties, who wanted to make sure to win over these new younger voters. Republican Richard Nixon was up against Democrat challenger George McGovern. While college-educated young voters appeared to like McGovern because he opposed the Vietnam war (which was the focus of enormous protests <a href="https://depts.washington.edu/antiwar/vietnam_student.shtml">on university campuses</a>), non-college goers seemed to swing towards Nixon. Older voters were also showing their preferences for Nixon.</p>
<p>Although McGovern was the favourite to win the young vote, Nixon was determined not to ignore <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/10/29/nixon-mcgovern-1972-young-voters/">younger voters in his campaign</a>. He even appointed a full-time member of staff to create campaigning specifically for these new voters, running a new organisation Young Voters for the President. Nixon unexpectedly won almost <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/11/09/archives/president-won-49-states-and-521-electoral-votes-president-was.html">half the first-time voters</a>.</p>
<p>However, in the 1970s and early 1980s there was little difference between the two age groups in their support for the Democrats. The chart below compares the voting behaviour of young and old Democratic voters in every presidential election since 1972. </p>
<p>It shows support for Democratic candidates in these elections by different age groups. Young voters are defined as those under the age of 25 and old voters those over the age of 64. The data comes from the <a href="https://electionstudies.org/">American National Election Study</a> (ANES).</p>
<p><strong>The relationship between voting for the Democrats and age in US presidential elections from 1972 to 2020:</strong></p>
<p>This pattern of voting started to change after the landslide victory for Republican George Bush senior in 1988. </p>
<p>When Bush was defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992, Clinton gained support from both young and old Americans by significant margins. That across-the-board support began to shift during his term of office though.</p>
<p>The young became more enthusiastic supporters of the Democrats compared with older voters, and since then the divergence in support has continued to widen. In 2020, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/number-public-polls-show-young-voters-turning-biden-rcna125794">74% of the young </a> voted for Democrat Joe Biden, compared with 55% of the older group. Biden won 60% of voters ages 18-29, compared to Donald Trump’s 36% in 2020. </p>
<p>What explains this trend, and why are the votes of those different age groups now so different? There are two broad factors at work: the first relates to the ideological leanings of young Americans compared with their older counterparts. The chart below shows responses to a question in the 2020 ANES survey asking respondents where they place themselves on a left-right ideological scale.</p>
<p><strong>The ideological attachments of young and old voters in the US presidential election of 2020:</strong></p>
<p>The chart above shows that young voters are much more likely to consider themselves as liberals compared to their older counterparts. Altogether, 49% of young Americans described themselves as liberals, with 29% describing themselves as conservatives. This is in sharp contrast to older voters with 29% liberals, and 47% conservatives. </p>
<p>This trend was confirmed by additional questions asking about contentious issues dividing liberals from conservatives. Some 57% of young voters were completely pro-choice on abortion, <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-tools/anes-guide/anes-guide.html?chart=abortion_by_law">compared with 41% of older voters</a>. Equally 32% of young Americans were very strongly in favour of affirmative action or <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-tools/anes-guide/anes-guide.html?chart=aid_to_blacks_minorities_7_pt">government assistance</a> for Black and ethnic minority people, compared with only 13% of voters over 60.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-turning-off-tiktok-is-a-big-risk-for-the-democrats-225942">US election: turning off TikTok is a big risk for the Democrats</a>
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<p>The second factor is the economic performance of the incumbent president, which has a strong influence on voting behaviour. In 2020, 17% of young voters (18-29) said the economy had got better and <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-tools/anes-guide/anes-guide.html?chart=retrospective_economy">56.7% said it had become worse in the last year</a>. </p>
<p>The equivalent figures for older voters (over 60) were 21.4% said it had got better and 57.7% said it had got worse. Clearly, in that year young people were less positive than the older generation. </p>
<h2>Youthful boost for Biden</h2>
<p>In 2024, Biden’s campaign team are very focused on the youth vote, attempting to build on their success in gaining their support for the Democrats in the midterms. But there had been some suggestions, in late 2023, that this age group was <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/number-public-polls-show-young-voters-turning-biden-rcna125794">slipping away</a>. </p>
<p>However, an Economist/YouGov poll conducted on March 10-12 2024 reported some encouraging news for the Democrats. It found 55% of voters between 18 and 29 had a favourable opinion of Biden, compared <a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_Ba6mR1n.pdf">with 38% of respondents</a> over over the age of 65. In contrast 40% of the young had a favourable opinion of Trump, compared with 50% of older voters.</p>
<p>This may partly be down to the efforts of the Democrats to woo and work with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-is-investing-in-influencers-to-help-with-this-years-election-224912">social media influencers</a> as well as building a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-turning-off-tiktok-is-big-risk-for-democrats-heres-why-225942">significant TikTok presence</a>. The Biden team will want to build on this during the campaign, as it could create the margin that will deliver a win for them in November.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p>Young voters have not always swung in different ways to older generations, as a look at historical data shows.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261942024-03-27T12:38:28Z2024-03-27T12:38:28ZHow to have the hard conversations about who really won the 2020 presidential election − before Election Day 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584166/original/file-20240325-9980-p8v9yo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C35%2C7951%2C5261&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's important to democracy to have difficult discussions across political lines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/chat-bubbles-with-mouths-showing-sharp-teeth-royalty-free-image/1399061447">MirageC/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of Americans believe that the <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/after-three-years-and-many-indictments-the-big-lie-that-led-to-the-january-6th-insurrection-is-still-believed-by-most-republicans/">2020 presidential election was stolen</a>. They think Donald Trump won by a landslide in 2020 and lost only because of widespread voter fraud. Some of the people who hold these views are my relatives, neighbors and professional associates. Because I reject these claims, it can be difficult to talk to those who accept them.</p>
<p>Often, we avoid the topic of politics. But as a <a href="https://millercenter.org/experts/robert-strong">political science scholar</a>, I expect that as the 2024 election gets closer, conversations about 2020 will become more common, more important and more unavoidable.</p>
<p>So, what does someone like me, who concludes that the last presidential election was legitimately won by Joe Biden, say to those who think that Trump was the actual winner? Here are a few of the questions I raise in my own conversations about 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rioters climb the walls of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This is not what democracy looks like.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotSeattlePolice/d55c50d30d884d738559a35b01ecf9be/photo">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
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<h2>Polls and pollsters</h2>
<p>I usually begin by asking about polls. Polls and pollsters are often wrong about close elections, and many prominent pollsters tilt toward Democrats. They predicted a Hillary <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/">Clinton victory in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>But even those polls and pollsters would be unlikely to have missed a 2020 landslide for Trump – or Biden. Unless, of course, as was the case, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jan/07/donald-trump/trump-clings-fantasy-landslide-victory-egging-supp/">the landslide did not exist</a>. </p>
<p>Recent political <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/">polling has been less accurate</a> than many people expect. And all polls have margins of error: They provide an imperfect picture of public sentiment in a closely divided nation.</p>
<p>That said, even polls with a sizable margin of error should have been able to find a Trump landslide in 2020 – but they didn’t, because there wasn’t one. The last American presidential landslide, Reagan in 1984, was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/10/31/conflicting-campaign-polls-point-to-one-certainty-some-are-wrong/30636083-2905-4e24-93a2-73ba76a7a587/">clearly seen in preelection polling</a>.</p>
<p>If millions of fraudulent votes were cast in 2020, reputable pollsters would have discovered a discrepancy between their data and official election results. This would have been particularly true for the pollsters trusted by Republicans.</p>
<p>Trump himself has often <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/10/7/21506391/rasmussen-poll-biden-vs-trump-landslide">praised the Rasmussen polling organization</a>. But just before Election Day 2020, Rasmussen reported that Trump could win a narrow victory in the Electoral College <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-him-narrowly-losing-presidency-one-day-before-election-1544099">only if he swept all the toss-up states</a> – a daunting task. Rasmussen found no evidence of a forthcoming Trump landslide and projected that Biden would get 51% of the national popular vote. That’s almost exactly the percentage he received <a href="https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf#page=10">in the official count</a>.</p>
<h2>Where is the congressional investigation of 2020 voter fraud?</h2>
<p>The House Republicans have not convened a special committee to investigate the 2020 election. Such a committee could summon witnesses, hold high-profile hearings and issue a detailed report. It could explain to the American people exactly what happened in the presidential election, how the election was stolen and who was responsible. If the evidence collected justified it, they could make criminal referrals to the Justice Department. <a href="https://january6th-benniethompson.house.gov/">The Democrats did all of these things in connection to the events of Jan. 6, 2021</a>. </p>
<p>What could be more important to the American public than a full and fair account of 2020 voter fraud? Donald Trump calls it <a href="https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1013604/trump-announces-the-crime-of-the-century-a-forthcoming-book-about-the-2020">“one of the greatest crimes in the history of our country</a>.” Yet the Republicans on Capitol Hill have not authorized a major public and professional investigation of those alleged crimes. Perhaps, as former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney claims, most Republican members of Congress know that Trump’s statements about massive voter fraud are false. </p>
<p>It would be hard, even for Congress, to investigate something that did not happen.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney says many Republicans in Congress don’t believe Trump’s lies.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>When the big lie goes to court</h2>
<p>Like Congress, or professional pollsters, the judicial system has ways to expose election fraud. Immediately after the 2020 election, the Trump campaign <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">went to court more than 60 times</a> to challenge voting procedures and results. </p>
<p>They lost in <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">all but one case</a>. </p>
<p>Related lawsuits have also been decided against those who claimed that the 2020 election was stolen. </p>
<p>For instance, Fox News was sued for defamation because of broadcasts <a href="https://casetext.com/case/us-dominion-inc-v-fox-news-network-llc-1">linking Dominion voting machines to allegations of a rigged 2020 election</a>. Fox, a powerful and wealthy corporation, could have taken the case to trial but didn’t. Instead, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/18/1170339114/fox-news-settles-blockbuster-defamation-lawsuit-with-dominion-voting-systems">it paid three-quarters of a billion dollars to settle the case</a>.</p>
<p>In another case, Rudy Giuliani has been ordered to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/rudy-giuliani-georgia-election-workers-defamation-case-cde7186493b3a1bd9ab89bc65f0f5b06">pay $148 million to Georgia election workers he falsely accused of misconduct</a>. More civil suits are pending.</p>
<p>Trump’s claim of a win in 2020 – known by its critics as <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/forced-to-choose-between-trumps-big-lie-and-liz-cheney-the-house-gop-chooses-the-lie">“The Big Lie”</a> – has regularly and repeatedly lost in court. If there were any truth to what Trump and his supporters say about the 2020 election, shouldn’t there be lawyers who present effective evidence and judges who give it credence? So far, there are not.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump doesn’t think the U.S. is a democracy.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Democracy in America?</h2>
<p>Hard conversations about election integrity often come around to a more fundamental question: Do we still have democracy in America?</p>
<p>I think we do. Our democracy is fragile and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/11/1071082955/imagine-another-american-civil-war-but-this-time-in-every-state">under greater stress than at any time since the Civil War</a>. But it is still a democracy. The rule of law may be slow, but it prevails. Harassed and threatened election officials do their jobs with courage and integrity. Joe Biden, the official winner of the 2020 election, sits in the White House.</p>
<p>Supporters of Donald Trump are likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0295747">think that the U.S. is not a democracy</a>. In their beliefs about how America works, millions of illegal votes are cast and counted on a regular basis; news is fake; violence is justified to halt fraudulent government proceedings; and it’s OK for a presidential candidate <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/donald-trump-dictator-one-day-reelected/71880010007/">to want to be a dictator</a> – if only for a day.</p>
<p>In a functioning democracy, everyone has constitutionally protected rights to hold and express their political opinions. But I believe we should all be willing to discuss and evaluate the evidence that supports, or fails to support, those opinions.</p>
<p>There is no verified evidence of widespread voter fraud in 2020. You can’t find it in the polls. You won’t get it from Congress. Claims of election wrongdoing have failed in the courts. I sometimes ask my friends what I am missing. Maybe what’s really missing is a readiness for the hard political conversations that I believe must be had in the 2024 election season.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert A. Strong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What does someone like me, who believes that the last presidential election was legitimately won by Joe Biden, say to those who think the 2020 election was stolen?Robert A. Strong, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Washington and Lee University; Senior Fellow, Miller Center, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2265042024-03-26T04:10:21Z2024-03-26T04:10:21ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Kim Beazley on Kevin Rudd, being an ambassador, and a possible second Trump presidency<p>Kim Beazley, a former Labor leader, served as Australia’s ambassador in Washington between 2010 and 2016. He is widely respected for his expertise in foreign and defence policy. </p>
<p>In this podcast episode, Beazley discusses the brouhaha over Donald Trump’s denigrating comments about Kevin Rudd, the present Australian ambassador in Washington. We also canvass wider alliance issues and the recent visit to Australia by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who included a meeting with Paul Keating among his engagements. </p>
<p>On Kevin Rudd’s future, Beazley says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have hopes that he could serve under a second term of President Trump – if there is a second term, which I also hope does not occur. I think you’ve got to remember, ambassadors don’t see much of presidents. We do when we’re accompanying the Australian prime minister somewhere. But aside from that, we see people [in] much more lowly positions than presidents. </p>
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<p>On why AUKUS is so important to Australia now: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Back in the 80s, we had a very different perspective. We had the capacity to basically defend ourselves with some of the equipment provided by the Americans and with their intelligence […] We now find ourselves in a situation where we can’t really defend ourselves without the United States assisting. […] It is just totally vital to us now. I don’t think that those of us who were in politics in the 80s have really caught up with that. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>On China, Beazley says Australia walks the tightrope: </p>
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<p>We’re trying to keep a situation where nothing goes wrong. […] We wish the Chinese well – absolutely. But there are lines in the sand that you have to draw in all these things.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Beazley was Labor leader during Anthony Albanese’s first years in parliament. He says of the man who became PM: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>He’s always been a pragmatist. That’s the first point. The second point is when you get to the position that he is in, you understand that the survival of Australia is not guaranteed, that the changing circumstances around us are not necessarily in Australia’s favour.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kim Beazley, a former Labor leader and Australia's ambassador in Washington joins us to talk about Donald Trump's denigrating comments about Kevin Rudd, AUKUS and the Australia-Chinese relationship.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244972024-03-22T12:34:10Z2024-03-22T12:34:10ZJon Stewart, still a ‘tiny, neurotic man,’ back to remind Americans what’s at stake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583208/original/file-20240320-20-bd8a2a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C2286%2C1076&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jon Stewart does a segment on Feb. 13, 2024, on the Biden-Trump rematch.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.com/search?q=jon+stewart+the+daily+show+2024&oq=jon+stewar&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDggAEEUYJxg7GIAEGIoFMg4IABBFGCcYOxiABBiKBTIOCAEQRRgnGDsYgAQYigUyDQgCEC4Y1AIYsQMYgAQyBggDEEUYQDIGCAQQRRg5MgYIBRBFGDwyBggGEEUYPDIGCAcQRRg90gEIMTc4NGowajSoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:b5213699,vid:NpBPm0b9deQ,st:0">Screenshot, The Daily Show</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s an uncomfortable truth: Jon Stewart and Donald Trump both tapped the same well of latent public disaffection with politics and the media in the 2000s. Trust in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/403166/americans-trust-media-remains-near-record-low.aspx">media</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/public-trust-in-government-1958-2023/">government</a> had been declining for several decades. But the symbiotic relationship between the White House and the press during the Iraq War <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-iraq-wars-damage-to-public-trust-in-experts-has-consequences-right-up-to-today-201656">highlighted the dangers of a lap dog press</a>.</p>
<p>It was against this backdrop that Stewart and Trump used their positions outside the fray to ally themselves with their audiences and draw pointed contrasts with the artifice of postmodern politics. But they did this – and continue to do this – in opposing ways. </p>
<p>Trump lashes out when politicians and journalists bring us closer to truth. Stewart criticizes them for keeping us in the dark. To Stewart, the solutions to America’s political spectacle are political accountability and increased transparency. To Trump, the solution is far simpler: <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/trump-rnc-speech-alone-fix-it/492557/">He alone can fix it</a>.</p>
<p>In 2003, maybe Stewart could call himself “<a href="https://billmoyers.com/content/daily-shows-jon-stewart-transcript/">a tiny, neurotic man, standing in the back of the room throwing tomatoes at the chalkboard</a>.” But today, with his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/arts/television/jon-stewart-daily-show.html">return on Monday nights</a> to host “The Daily Show,” he is part of the school administration trying to keep the lights on and the students learning. </p>
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<h2>Criticizing Bush’s war</h2>
<p>During the George W. Bush years, Stewart perfected the art of ironic satire, playfully critiquing politicians, the press and the public, while implying something better was possible. </p>
<p>He feigned incredulity as he critiqued the Bush administration’s <a href="https://www.cc.com/video/3e83yu/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-bush-v-bush">political hypocrisy</a> and cynical invocation of <a href="https://www.cc.com/video/llc6rb/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-mess-o-potamia-wmd-search">Sept. 11</a> in its justification for the Iraq War. </p>
<p>Stewart used irony to describe failures of American policy as though they were fabulous successes. Like on July 16, 2007, when he said enthusiastically, “As you know, we are now entering our fifth year of making … very good progress in Iraq. Obviously the president defining ‘progress’ now as ‘moving forward in time.’” Stewart invited his <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584600802427013">young, politically interested, liberal/moderate audience</a> to conclude the opposite: “Things should not be this way, and we deserve better.”</p>
<p>Around the same time, Trump was also criticizing Bush, but through <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/irony-and-outrage-9780197581803?cc=us&lang=en&">hyperbole and outrage rather than ironic satire</a>. In 2007, he told <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/02/17/donald.trump.issues/index.html">CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that</a> “everything in Washington has been a lie. Weapons of mass destruction – it was a total lie. It was a way of attacking Iraq.” </p>
<p>By 2011, Trump aimed his hyperbole and outrage at a new target: President Barack Obama. Trump challenged the legitimacy of Obama’s presidency by <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-perpetuated-birther-movement-years/story?id=42138176">spreading racist lies about Obama’s birthplace</a> and suggesting <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/18/politics/trump-obama-muslim-birther/index.html">that Obama was a Muslim</a>. The “Birther Lie” launched Trump’s political career. It also solidified his appeal among those whose worldview was amenable to authoritarian populism: those high in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716218811309">political distrust, racial resentment</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12270">conspiricism</a>. </p>
<h2>Authoritarianism vs. democracy</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/why-trumps-drastic-plan-to-slash-the-government-could-succeed-6828ccbe">Trump has embraced an authoritarian vision of the presidency</a> with concentrated powers in the executive branch. If reelected, he has vowed to use the Department of Justice <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/09/trump-interview-univision/">to investigate political opponents</a> and has explored ways to use the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">military to subdue political unrest</a> stemming from his reelection. </p>
<p>Trump’s critiques of the press echo an authoritarian perspective, too. When Trump lambastes the press as “fake news,” it is in response to negative coverage of himself <a href="https://www.axios.com/2017/12/15/everything-trump-has-called-fake-news-1513303959">or fact checks of his own false statements</a>. </p>
<p>To Stewart, though, journalism’s failures are not ideological or personal, but professional. He criticizes them for not getting us closer to the truth. He has critiqued <a href="https://www.cc.com/video/tlwgqa/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-cnn-leaves-it-there">how journalists leave political spin uninterrogated</a>, give time to “both sides” and “leave the conversation there,” even when one side is demonstrably wrong. He has criticized politicians’ reliance on <a href="https://billmoyers.com/content/daily-shows-jon-stewart-transcript/">communications professionals</a> who <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/07/convention-watching.html">obfuscate the truth</a> to get more favorable coverage.</p>
<h2>Stewart’s new old role</h2>
<p>Though a political outsider two decades ago, Stewart now finds himself inside the political and media institutions whose roles include making the public aware of – and thus safeguarding them from – the antidemocratic and destabilizing forces of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cultural-backlash/3C7CB32722C7BB8B19A0FC005CAFD02B">populist authoritarians like Trump</a>. </p>
<p>Since Stewart’s return to “The Daily Show” after his 2015 departure, he has interviewed democracy expert <a href="https://www.gov.harvard.edu/directory/steven-levitsky/">Steven Levitsky</a> on ways to protect democracy, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/jonathan-blitzer/page/4">journalist Jonathan Blitzer</a> about the complex forces shaping U.S. immigration policy, Middle East-focused journalists <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wznD7uCEcLk">Murtaza Hussain and Yair Rosenberg</a> on Israel’s war in Gaza, and legal scholars <a href="https://crooked.com/podcast-series/strict-scrutiny/">Melissa Murray and Kate Shaw</a> on Trump’s efforts to avoid prosecution. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Jon Stewart does a segment on freedom of the press, cued to Donald Trump saying he would jail certain journalists.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Through these conversations, Stewart showcases guests who espouse a pluralistic liberal vision of democracy. And through his satire, Stewart himself shows that democratic institutions and processes may be messy, but their ability to protect the will and liberty of the people makes them indispensable. </p>
<p>Or, as Stewart said in a February episode, “The difference between America’s urinal-caked chaotic subways and Russia’s candelabra’d beautiful subways is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM2h3KnWAWY">the literal price of freedom</a>.” </p>
<p>Stewart explained his 2024 return to “The Daily Show” as wanting to “have some kind of place to unload thoughts <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jon-stewart-daily-show-return-what-to-expect/">as we get into this election season</a>.”</p>
<p>But having studied the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fWtPIV4AAAAJ&hl=en">content and effects of political satire</a> since Stewart became “The Daily Show” host in 1999, I see his return as evidence he recognizes the protective role he can play for American democracy. Because even if ironic satire isn’t great at persuading people to change their minds, research shows it does subtly shape how we think about and engage with our political world. </p>
<p>When satirists cover an issue, viewers become more likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2018.1498816">see that issue as important</a>. Satire also shapes how people think about politicians and issues. In the early 2000s, I conducted a series of studies that revealed that exposure to jokes about presidential candidates provided study participants with criteria they then used to evaluate those candidates – like Al Gore’s <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1207/s15327825mcs0903_5">lack of charisma</a> or George W. Bush’s lack of intellect or performance on Iraq. And when study participants didn’t have a lot of political knowledge, satire helped them fill in the gaps. </p>
<p>Satire is also great at highlighting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2017.1301517">issues that audiences haven’t thought much about</a>, such as the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2015.0361">Citizens United</a> campaign finance decision.</p>
<p>Satire encourages audiences to pay <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584600802427013">attention</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2022.2138766">discuss</a> politics in new ways, motivating them to seek out other information or talk about politics with friends. And even though satirists like Stewart may be critical of journalism, their programs highlight the importance of an independent press to a democratic society, increasing viewers’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699017713002">perceptions of the importance of news</a>.</p>
<h2>There’s always a role for the satirist</h2>
<p>Because Trump’s rhetoric is so explicit and outrageous, some have suggested it may <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/magazine/trump-liberal-comedy-tv.html">rob satirists of the ability to deconstruct his messaging</a>. But despite its explicitness, there is still a lot that authoritarian populists like Trump don’t ever say. </p>
<p>This is where satirists like Stewart can help fill in the gaps: By juxtaposing populist authoritarians’ <a href="https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/rt/metadata/21783/4549">glittering generalities</a> with the ugly reality of life under authoritarianism.</p>
<p>For example, in a recent episode of “The Daily Show,” Stewart deconstructed Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Carlson’s glowing reviews of Russia’s grocery stores and sparkling subway system.</p>
<p>“Perhaps if your handlers had allowed,” Stewart says as though addressing Carlson, “you would have seen there is a hidden fee to your cheap groceries and orderly streets. Ask <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-alexei-navalny-death-opposition-leader-37da0915157576372d6493be7ad04b5c">likely assassinated opposition leader Alexei Navalny</a> or any of his supporters.”</p>
<p>In a 2021 discussion <a href="https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2021-10-17/segment/01">on CNN</a> about American democracy, Stewart lamented Democrats’ endless hand-wringing over Trump’s threat to democracy. Instead, Stewart proposed: “Action is the antithesis of anxiety.” </p>
<p>What we see in Stewart’s return is him reminding us that American democracy is never done. It takes constant action. </p>
<p>Stewart may still be “<a href="https://billmoyers.com/content/daily-shows-jon-stewart-transcript/">a tiny, neurotic man</a>,” but far from throwing tomatoes at the chalkboard, now he’s standing tall in front of the class, and school is in session.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224497/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dannagal G. Young was a production assistant on the Daily Show for 10 days during the RNC in Philadelphia in 2000.
</span></em></p>In the early 2000s, Jon Stewart perfected the art of ironic satire, playfully critiquing politicians, political institutions, the press and the public. What’s his role now?Dannagal G. Young, Professor of Communication and Political Science, University of DelawareLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259442024-03-22T10:15:51Z2024-03-22T10:15:51ZUkraine war: Russia’s Baltic neighbours to create massive border defences as Trump continues undermining Nato<p>With Donald Trump leading in <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/">many of the polls</a> for the upcoming US presidential election, his comments about global security and foreign policy have to be taken seriously.</p>
<p>In February, Trump flippantly remarked that he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted to Nato states that failed to pay their <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html#:%7E:text=As%20president%2C%20Trump%20privately%20threatened,wants%20to%20weaken%20the%20alliance">bills</a>. In a follow-up interview on GB News this week he <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/donald-trump-nato-interview-nigel-farage-gb-news-6mmjhv3vr">warned allies</a> “not to take advantage” of the US. </p>
<p>Nowhere is this causing more concern than for the countries in the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.</p>
<p>Not only does Trump, sometimes, say he wants to halt all US military aid to Ukraine, but Trump wants to undercut article 5 of Nato’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-trump-spending-wesley-clark-treaty-article-5-2019-12?r=US&IR=T">treaty</a> – the principle of collective defence – something that has become increasingly important in the wake of Russia’s aggression. British military <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/donald-trump-nato-interview-nigel-farage-gb-news-6mmjhv3vr">sources are worried that</a> Trump’s remarks will strengthen Putin’s resolve over Ukraine, and could result in him advancing on even more territory.</p>
<p>Even before Trump emerged on the US political scene, the Baltic countries have been especially concerned about Russia’s growing ambitions. They have, after all, been <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Baltic-states/Soviet-occupation">invaded and occupied by Russia before</a>, in 1940, and then forced to become part of <a href="https://brill.com/display/book/9789004464896/BP000015.xml">the Soviet Union</a>. There’s plenty of people who can still remember life in the Soviet Union.</p>
<p>Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Baltic states have been the loudest voices sounding the alarm about the existential threat posed by <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-eu-should-stop-westsplaining-and-listen-to-its-smaller-eastern-members-they-saw-the-ukraine-war-coming-226165">Russia</a>, and all three countries increased their military spending to more than 2% of their GDP, and recently agreed to raise it to <a href="https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1841298/baltics-agree-on-need-to-raise-defence-spending-to-3-of-gdp">3%</a>.</p>
<h2>Building shared defences</h2>
<p>Amid growing security concerns, the defence ministers in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia also agreed in January to set up a common Baltic defence zone on their borders with Russia and <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/19/baltic-nations-to-build-defense-network-along-borders-with-russia-belarus-a83786">Belarus</a>. This would consist of building physical defensive structures such as bunkers.</p>
<p>Estonia will begin construction of 600 bunkers in early <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/baltic-nations-prepare-600-strong-bunker-defensive-line-with-russian-threat-in-mind/">2025</a>. The nations will also cooperate in developing missile artillery, and ensuring that their equipment, ammunition and manpower is <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/latvia-lithuania-estonia-common-defense-zone-russia-border-security-concerns/">updated</a>.</p>
<p>Estonia has also doubled the size of its territorial defence force to 20,000 <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-why-the-baltic-states-on-natos-frontline-with-russia-are-urging-their-allies-to-wake-up-13084332">people</a>, while Latvia reintroduced conscription in 2023 after becoming the only Baltic state to stop mandatory military service in 2006.</p>
<p>Latvia also plans to double the size of its armed forces to 61,000 by the year <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-why-the-baltic-states-on-natos-frontline-with-russia-are-urging-their-allies-to-wake-up-13084332">2032</a>. Meanwhile, Lithuania has made an agreement with Germany to allow a permanent brigade of 4,800 of its troops to be combat ready on the Russian border by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-brigade-be-combat-ready-lithuania-russian-border-2027-2023-12-18/">2027</a>.</p>
<h2>Putin’s pledge to Russian speakers</h2>
<p>But given that Russia borders 14 countries, why are the Baltic states especially concerned about their security? In addition to being geographically close, a notable number of ethnic Russians live in the Baltic countries (5% in Lithuania; 25% in Estonia and 36% in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-insight/disquiet-in-baltics-over-sympathies-of-russian-speakers-idUSBREA2K07S20140323/">Latvia</a>. In the eastern Estonian city of Narva, 95.7% of the population are native Russian speakers and 87.7% are ethnic <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/22/always-looking-shoulder-anxiety-estonia-russians-tallinn">Russians</a>. </p>
<p>This matters as Putin has argued that having substantial numbers of ethnic Russians living outside of Russia, due to the “catastrophic” dissolution of the Soviet Union, represents a “humanitarian <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14682745.2023.2162329">disaster</a> of epic proportions” as it left Russians cut off from “their motherland”. Putin has vowed to actively protect all “Russians” living <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/putin-vows-to-actively-defend-russians-living-abroad/">abroad</a>. </p>
<p>In particular, Putin has said he was concerned about how ethnic Russians are being treated in the Baltics, remarking that the deportation of ethnic Russians (most notably in Latvia where there have been recent changes to its immigration laws), poses a threat to Russian national <a href="https://tass.com/politics/1733169?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com">security</a>.</p>
<p>The Kremlin has also protested the demolition of Soviet monuments in the <a href="https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/russia-protests-dismantling-of-soviet-monument.a198914/">Baltics</a>, placing Estonia’s prime minster, Kaja Kallas, <a href="https://news.err.ee/1609251885/kallas-on-russia-s-wanted-list-this-is-a-familiar-scare-tactic">on its wanted list</a> for doing so. </p>
<p>But these claims about wanting to protect Russians abroad, are really just a pretext to justify escalation with the Baltics, which will test Nato’s alliance and destabilise the <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2024">organisation</a>. So it’s not just important that there are ethnic Russians living there – there are strategic reasons as well that make them an easy target.</p>
<p>Even with the Baltic countries strengthening their troop numbers, Russia currently has 1.32 million active military personnel, and two million active <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/">reserve</a>. Combined this is greater that Lithuania’s entire population of 2.8 million people, and far greater than Estonia and Latvia which have populations of 1.3 million and 1.8 million people, respectively.</p>
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<p>For Lithuania, which borders Belarus and Russian-run mini-state Kaliningrad, there are concerns that it could be taken over first by Russian forces, which would then physically isolate Lithuania from the rest of the Baltics. The Kaliningrad region has become increasingly militarised in recent years, with Iskander ballistic missiles and S-400 <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/reports/2022-12-05-BalticRussia-FINALweb.pdf">systems</a> installed. With Trump suggesting he would weaken the US’s commitment to Nato if elected, there won’t be much of a deterrent for Putin to grab low-hanging fruit.</p>
<p>The current Nato response force consists of approximately <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-increase-high-readiness-force-300000/">40,000 troops</a>, with plans to upgrade to 300,000 <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61954516">troops</a>. But quick-reaction units could still be too slow to protect the Baltics from Russian forces as, ironically, moving large units, vehicles and ammunition <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/18/is-baltic-sea-nato-lake-pub-91263">across borders is bureaucratic and takes time</a>. It would be important to have excellent intelligence and to move quickly, something that will be made more difficult with the US potentially opting out of its commitments.</p>
<p>Though Russia has plunged much of its resources into winning the Ukraine war, Putin still aims to expand Russian sovereignty across the post-Soviet states and to effectively dismantle Nato, something that Trump takes no issue with. As Russia has been ramping up its war machine, the Baltic states firmly believe that Russian aggression will not stop at Ukraine, and that they <a href="https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1717545/if-ukraine-falls-baltic-states-will-be-next-says-russia-s-former-pm#:%7E:text=In%20Kasyanov%2C%20view%2C%20the%20war,be%20next%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.&text=Kasyanov%2C%2064%2C%20was%20sacked%20by,People's%20Freedom%20party%2C%20or%20Parnas">could be next</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Baltic states have high numbers of Russian speakers, who Putin has vowed to ‘protect’.Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255242024-03-21T17:53:21Z2024-03-21T17:53:21ZWhether it’s Trump or Biden as president, U.S. foreign policy endangers the world<p>Many observers of American politics are understandably terrified at the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected president of the United States in November.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/11/9/has-us-democracy-failed-for-good">The U.S.</a> is already showing signs of a <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/democracy-crisis">failed democracy</a>. <a href="https://www.citizen.org/news/twelve-years-since-citizens-united-big-money-corruption-keeps-getting-worse/">Its government</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/9/28/corruption-is-as-american-as-apple-pie">and politics</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/01/us/politics/government-dysfunction-normal.html">are often dysfunctional</a> and plagued <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/28/report-transparency-international-corruption-worst-decade-united-states/">with corruption</a>. </p>
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<p>A Trump victory would raise fears of a new level of decline into <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/us/politics/trump-rhetoric-fascism.html">fascist authoritarianism</a>. However, a second Trump presidency would not necessarily implement a foreign policy any more destructive than what is normal for the U.S. </p>
<h2>Violence part of U.S. foreign policy</h2>
<p>Since the start of the 21st century, the U.S. has unleashed enormous violence and instability on the global stage. This is a feature of American foreign policy, regardless of who’s president. </p>
<p>In 2001, in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. launched its “war on terror.” It invaded and <a href="https://theconversation.com/by-not-investigating-the-u-s-for-war-crimes-the-international-criminal-court-shows-colonialism-still-thrives-in-international-law-115269">occupied Afghanistan</a>, then illegally invaded and occupied Iraq. </p>
<p>These actions <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/">caused the deaths of 4.6 million people over the next 20 years, destabilized the Middle East and caused massive refugee migrations</a>. </p>
<p>In 2007-2008, <a href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/why-did-the-global-financial-crisis-of-2007-09-happen">the under-regulated U.S. economy caused a global financial crisis</a>. The <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2018/10/03/blog-lasting-effects-the-global-economic-recovery-10-years-after-the-crisis">associated political and economic fallout</a> <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/09/the-social-and-political-costs-of-the-financial-crisis-10-years-later">continues to resonate</a>. </p>
<p>In 2011, <a href="https://www.globalvillagespace.com/consequences-of-us-nato-military-intervention-in-libya/">the U.S. and its</a> <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/how-nato-pushed-us-libya-fiasco">NATO allies intervened in Libya</a>, <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/libya-floods-nato/">collapsing that state, destabilizing northern Africa</a> and creating more refugees. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/opinion/nato-summit-vilnius-europe.html">The U.S. tried to</a> <a href="https://harpers.org/archive/2023/06/why-are-we-in-ukraine/">consolidate its dominance in Europe by expanding NATO</a>, despite Russia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine">warning against this for decades</a>. This strategy played a role in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014 and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. </p>
<p>President Joe Biden’s administration <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/">has been accused both of helping to provoke the war</a> in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/">hopes of permanently weakening Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/why-peace-talks-but-no-peace/">of resisting peace negotiations</a>.</p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://time.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger/">Ukraine appears to stand on the verge of defeat</a> and territorial division, and U.S. Congress <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/us-congress-support-ukraine-war/677256/">seems set to abandon it.</a></p>
<h2>Fuelling global tensions</h2>
<p>The U.S. has provoked tensions with China <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/harvard-guru-gives-biden-a-d-for-china-policy/">by reneging on American commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) to refrain from having official relations or an “alliance” with Taiwan</a>. <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/proposals-for-us-action-in-s-china-sea-should-worry-everyone/">The U.S. has also been accused</a> of <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2018/06/20/us-pundits-and-politicians-pushing-for-war-in-the-south-china-sea/">encouraging conflict in the South China Sea</a> as it has <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2023/2/14/david_vine_us_bases_china_philippines">surrounded China with hundreds of military bases.</a> </p>
<p>Israel’s assault on Gaza is partly the culmination of decades of misguided U.S. foreign policy. Unconditional American support of Israel has helped enable <a href="https://www.amnesty.ca/human-rights-news/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/?psafe_param=1&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw7-SvBhB6EiwAwYdCAVW84WyFFiEvbjzsIp5pPDN5CDlYOCBM52mCC6X6HGC6u52iuTDyyxoCM7MQAvD_BwE">the country’s degeneration</a> into what human rights organizations have called <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution">apartheid</a>, as the state has built illegal settlements on Palestinian land and violently suppressed Palestinian self-determination. </p>
<p>As Israel is accused <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68550937">of using starvation as a weapon against 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza</a>, half of them children, the U.S. is fully <a href="https://ccrjustice.org/home/press-center/ccr-news/building-case-us-complicity">complicit in the Israeli war crimes</a> and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/south-african-lawyers-preparing-lawsuit-against-us-uk-for-complicity-in-israels-war-crimes-in-gaza/3109201">for facilitating a conflict</a> that is further inflaming a critically important region. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-strikes-against-houthis-risk-igniting-a-powderkeg-in-the-middle-east-221392">Western strikes against Houthis risk igniting a powderkeg in the Middle East</a>
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<p>Israel is of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/israel-strategic-liability">little to no strategic value</a> <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230804-israel-no-longer-serves-us-interest-says-ex-senior-white-house-official/">to the U.S</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3167/isf.2007.220205">American politicians contend that its overwhelming support for Israel reflects moral and cultural ties,</a> <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/11/us-ignores-israeli-war-crimes-domestic-politics-ex-official">but it’s mainly</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/politics/aipac-israel-gaza-democrats-republicans.html">driven by domestic politics</a>. </p>
<p>That suggests that for <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/5929705/us-israel-friends">domestic political reasons</a>, the U.S. has endangered global stability and supported atrocities. </p>
<h2>Biden/Trump foreign policy</h2>
<p>The Biden administration has continued many of the foreign policy initiatives it inherited from Trump. </p>
<p>Biden doubled down on <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2022/12/25/biden-escalates-the-economic-war-with-china/?sh=1f1caa1412f3">Trump’s economic</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3253917/no-end-us-trade-war-china-biden-administration-pledges-policy-document">technological and political war against China</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-american-technological-war-against-china-could-backfire-219158">Why the American technological war against China could backfire</a>
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<p>He <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/biden-administration-continues-be-wrong-about-wto">reinforced Trump’s trade protectionism</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/08/wto-flops-usa-shrugs-00145691">left the World Trade Organization hobbled</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/09/1110109088/biden-is-building-on-the-abraham-accords-part-of-trumps-legacy-in-the-middle-eas">He built on Trump’s “Abraham Accords,”</a> an initiative to convince Arab states to normalize their relations with Israel without a resolution to the Palestine question. </p>
<p>The Biden administration’s efforts to push normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/11/analysis-why-did-hamas-attack-now-and-what-is-next">is considered part of Hamas’s motivation to attack Israel on Oct. 7, 2023</a>.</p>
<p>None of this inspires confidence in U.S. “global leadership.”</p>
<p>Biden and Trump share the same goal: <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/americas-plot-for-world-domination/">permanent American global domination</a>. They only differ in how to achieve this. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/deconstructing-trumps-foreign-policy/">believes the U.S.</a> can <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/20/key-moments-in-trumps-foreign-policy">use economic and military might</a> <a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_2020_the_year_of_economic_coercion_under_trump/">to coerce the world</a> into acquiescing to American desires, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-strong-arm-foreign-policy-tactics-create-tensions-with-both-us-friends-and-foes/2020/01/18/ddb76364-3991-11ea-bb7b-265f4554af6d_story.html">regardless of the costs to everyone else</a> and without the U.S. assuming any obligations to others. </p>
<p>In office, <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/01/20/trump-the-anti-war-president-was-always-a-myth/">Trump tried to present himself as “anti-war.”</a> But his inclination to use of threats and violence reflected established American behaviour.</p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://jacobin.com/2022/10/biden-national-security-strategy-us-hegemony">follows a more diplomatic strategy</a> that tries to control international institutions and convince key states their interests are best served by accepting and co-operating with American domination. However, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/biden-warns-us-military-may-get-pulled-direct-conflict-russia-1856613">Biden readily resorts to economic and military coercion</a>, too. </p>
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<h2>Reality check?</h2>
<p>The silver lining to a Trump presidency is that it might force U.S. allies to confront reality.</p>
<p>American allies convinced themselves that <a href="https://www.policymagazine.ca/the-biden-doctrine-our-long-international-nightmare-is-over/">the Biden presidency was a return to normalcy</a>, but they’re still accepting and supporting American global violence. They’re also wilfully ignoring the ongoing American political decay that could not be masked by Biden’s defeat of Trump in 2020.</p>
<p>Trump is a <a href="https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/trump-symptom-diseased-american-democracy">symptom of American political dysfunction, not a cause</a>. Even if he loses in November, the Republican Party will continue its slide towards fascism and American politics will remain toxic.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/18/1232263785/generations-after-its-heyday-isolationism-is-alive-and-kicking-up-controversy">A second Trump presidency may convince American allies that the U.S. is unreliable and inconsistent</a>. It may undermine the mostly <a href="https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2024/03/14/how-europe-and-australia-can-end-our-slide-into-irrelevance-servility-national-press-club-of-australia-speech-13-march-2024/">western coalition that has dominated and damaged the world so profoundly</a>. </p>
<p>If Trump returns, traditional U.S. allies may recognize that their interests lie in reconsidering their relations with the U.S. </p>
<p>For American neighbours Canada and Mexico, a Trump presidency is only bad news. They’ll <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joly-us-authoritarian-game-plan-1.6939369#:%7E:text=Politics-,Canada%20mulling%20'game%20plan'%20if%20U.S.%20takes%20far%2Dright,after%20next%20year's%20presidential%20elections.">have to somehow protect themselves from creeping U.S. fascism</a>. For the rest of the world, it may herald the start of a dynamic multipolar order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Narine has contributed to Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East and Jewish Voice for Peace.</span></em></p>A second Donald Trump presidency would not necessarily implement a foreign policy any more destructive than what is normal for the United States.Shaun Narine, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258672024-03-21T17:28:49Z2024-03-21T17:28:49ZEven presidents need a touch of madness − in March<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582891/original/file-20240319-8644-3673sk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3735%2C2735&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Then-Vice President Joe Biden at the NCAA men's Final Four semifinal between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Syracuse Orange on April 2, 2016, in Houston. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-joe-biden-poses-for-a-picture-with-syracuse-news-photo/518788354?adppopup=true">Streeter Lecka/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Why would a president faced with lingering inflation at home and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, among other problems, take time out to participate in the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket">annual sports fan’s ritual of March Madness</a>? </p>
<p>The “madness” began this year on March 17, when a committee appointed by the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2024-03-17/ncaa-tournament-bracket-revealed-east-region">NCAA announced the field</a> of 68 college basketball teams in each of two divisions – one for men and one for women – selected to compete for a national championship. The teams are divided into four brackets and seeded from 1 to 16, from best to worst, according to the judgment of the committee. The last two surviving men’s teams play on April 8 in the championship game, and the women’s surviving teams finish on April 7. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1223099/bracket-march-madness-intention/">Tens of millions</a> of college basketball fans, including the president if he chooses, take part in the ritual of filling out brackets, a task that involves trying to predict the winning teams starting with the first round of games. </p>
<p>It’s nearly impossible for anyone to predict the winner of every game. The chance of filling out a perfect bracket has been estimated to be <a href="https://www.sdsu.edu/news/2024/03/march-madness-a-statisticians-guide-for-beating-1-in-a-quintillion-odds-of-the-perfect-bracket">1 in 147 trillion</a> attempts. </p>
<p>Following in the footsteps of <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4541434-obama-unveils-march-madness-brackets/">former President Barack Obama</a>, President Joe Biden has filled out brackets for the 2024 NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. This year, Biden is playing it safe by choosing <a href="https://twitter.com/potus/status/1770512056321548427?s=51&t=5FrDEU6h5JiRyqzLwoB_2Q">the No. 1 seeds in both tournaments to win the national championship</a>: South Carolina in the women’s bracket and UConn in the men’s. </p>
<p>Biden’s predictions are bound to improve from last year. That’s when his top pick to win the men’s tournament, the No. 2-seeded University of Arizona, was upset in the first round <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3904252-bidens-march-madness-bracket-is-already-busted/">by Princeton University</a>. </p>
<p>Biden may be participating in March Madness because he, like other presidents, enjoys the competitive nature of sports. And sports allow presidents to “cast a positive image of their presidency and speak to audiences they might not be able to reach <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">any other way</a>,” as journalist Chris Cillizza has written. In this case, Biden is taking the opportunity to carry on like a regular fan.</p>
<p>Yet, as my co-author <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_R._Morris">Tom Morris</a> and I observe in our research for a book on the relationship between sports and politics, presidential involvement in sporting events offers both risks and rewards. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holding a team jersey with the name 'Obama' on it, standing in front of a large group of men in suits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Barack Obama accepts a team jersey at the White House on May 11, 2009, from the North Carolina Tar Heels, the 2009 NCAA Division I national champions, whom Obama picked to win in his March Madness bracket.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/university-of-north-carolina-mens-basketball-head-coach-roy-news-photo/87066338?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A sports fan, not a politician</h2>
<p>Presidents have been participating in sporting events at least since April 14, 1910, when William Howard Taft threw a <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/baseball/photoessay/02.html">ceremonial first pitch</a> at the Washington Senators baseball game on opening day. And presidents routinely invite championship teams to the White House to publicly acknowledge their accomplishments.</p>
<p>But Obama, an avid basketball fan, was the first president to complete an NCAA Tournament bracket. The idea emerged near the end of the 2008 presidential campaign, when ESPN reporter <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">Andy Katz suggested to Obama</a>, “If you win, how about I come to the White House and we do an NCAA Tournament bracket.” </p>
<p>Obama agreed. After winning the 2008 presidential election, he followed through. </p>
<p>On March 18, 2009, Katz interviewed Obama about his selections on ESPN’s show “SportsCenter.” According to Katz, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/ncaatourney09/news/story?id=3991183">Obama took the job seriously</a>: “President Obama made his picks as a sports fan, not as a politician. He was knowledgeable about the teams and was even up to date on the latest injuries involving the contenders. … It was clear that he enjoyed filling out his bracket like the rest of America.” </p>
<p>Obama’s supporters cheered his participation in March Madness, while some <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2011/03/19/134599376/obama-trash-talked-for-doing-espn-brackets-during-multiple-crises">opponents criticized the move</a> as a frivolous distraction. The president surely must have better things to do; why take the NCAA Tournament so seriously? </p>
<p>But by failing to complete a bracket for the women’s tournament, Obama invited criticism that he was not taking women’s basketball seriously enough. </p>
<p>USA Today columnist <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2009/0327/ncaa-snub-obama-doesnt-pick-womens-basketball-teams">Christine Brennan</a> faulted Obama: “As the father of two athletic daughters, President Obama should know all about the importance of sports for women and girls.” </p>
<p>From that point on, Obama completed brackets for both the men’s and women’s tournaments. He was <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2010/03/17/president-picks-his-favorites-2010-ncaa-basketball-tournament">interviewed</a> about his choices for both tournaments on ESPN.</p>
<p>At least one of Obama’s brackets <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/324156-obama-continues-tradition-of-filling-out-march-madness-brackets/">is in the Smithsonian</a>.</p>
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<h2>Choosing to win</h2>
<p>During the 2012 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Mitt Romney drew a contrast with Obama by choosing not to fill out a bracket. <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/108647-romney-not-plugged-in-to-march-madness/">Romney announced</a>: “I’m not plugged in well enough this year to do that.”</p>
<p>Although Obama defeated Romney in the election, Romney ultimately proved to be a better predictor of NCAA Tournament basketball games. </p>
<p>Acting as a mere citizen three years later, Romney participated in the ESPN Tournament Challenge with what the network called an “<a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/page/instantawesome-RomneyBracket-150407/mitt-romney-march-madness-bracket-was-astoundingly-good">astounding success</a>.” He predicted all of the Final Four teams in the men’s tournament, placing himself in the top 1% of people who filled out the bracket and earning the headline, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/romney-obama-ncaa-championship-bracket-duke-wisconsin-116681">“Romney bracket crushes Obama’s</a>.” </p>
<p>Evaluating Obama’s predictions became a regular part of March Madness. Analysts not only critiqued Obama’s <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/president-obama-is-surprisingly-bad-at-picking-march-madness-brackets-110119/">relatively poor track record</a> in predicting outcomes. They also considered how those choices reflected his effort to connect with people.</p>
<p>Assessing Obama’s record over eight years, Sports Illustrated concluded: “President Obama used basketball as a way to <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2016/03/16/barack-obama-ncaa-tournament-bracket-march-madness">bond with the American people</a> but he has had ups and downs in making his NCAA tournament picks.” </p>
<h2>No March Madness for Trump</h2>
<p>After he left office, Obama the basketball enthusiast continued to fill out NCAA men’s and women’s tournament brackets. Meanwhile, his successor, President Donald Trump, declined ESPN’s invitation to complete what has been referred to as the “presidential bracket.” </p>
<p>Trump might have been too busy, disinterested in basketball or unwilling <a href="https://www.salon.com/2017/03/18/field-of-one-what-donald-trumps-decision-not-to-fill-out-a-bracket-says-about-his-media-strategy/">to associate himself with Obama</a>. Nonetheless, Trump left open the possibility of a future engagement with sports. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/trump-declines-espn-invite-to-fill-out-ncaa-bracket-on-air/">And he did correctly predict the Super Bowl winner in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>White House spokesperson <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/01/08/espn-isnt-expecting-to-interview-trump-during-the-college-football-championship-game/">Hope Hicks announced</a>: “We look forward to working with ESPN on another opportunity in the near future.”</p>
<h2>Enjoying the madness</h2>
<p>Biden has returned to Obama’s practice, though not with the same fervor or enthusiasm. In 2023, Biden submitted his brackets just a few minutes before the <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/march-madness-president-joe-biden-sneaks-in-ncaa-tournament-brackets-loses-champion-arizona-on-day-1-180322281.html">start of the first game</a>. </p>
<p>Unlike Obama, who routinely participated in pickup games and had a basketball court installed <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">on the White House grounds</a> so he could practice shooting, Biden is less enamored of basketball. After all, he grew up playing baseball and was a star receiver for <a href="https://www.thedp.com/article/2020/08/joe-biden-penn-athletics-football-archmere-2020-election-delaware">his high school football team</a>.</p>
<p>When it comes to filling out NCAA brackets, presidents may be playing politics – or they may just be taking time to enjoy the madness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Palazzolo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Filling out brackets for the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments allows a president to be just a regular Joe. Including Joe Biden.Daniel Palazzolo, Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263162024-03-21T09:36:46Z2024-03-21T09:36:46ZGrattan on Friday: Australian PMs did OK under Trump Mark 1. Could Albanese manage Trump Mark 2?<p>Kevin Rudd will be sharply aware of the difference between being a politician and a diplomat as he contemplates Donald Trump’s sledge this week. </p>
<p>Rudd, the politician, would have let fly after Trump’s attack, which was laced with both insult and threat. Rudd, the ambassador, has to hold his tongue. </p>
<p>It doesn’t take much imagination to hear the former prime minister’s colorful language behind closed doors. </p>
<p>Trump’s gratuitous comments, in an interview with British right-wing ex-politician and now broadcaster Nigel Farage, were typical Trump. </p>
<p>When Farage prompted Trump with Rudd’s previous scathing assessment of him, the former president said: “I heard he was a little bit nasty. I hear he’s not the brightest bulb. But I don’t know much about him. But if, if he’s at all hostile, he will not be there long.”</p>
<p>The federal opposition, predictably but inappropriately, tried to score a political point. The manager of opposition business, Paul Fletcher, asked Prime Minister Anthony Albanese whether he’d reassess Rudd’s position. </p>
<p>This was hypocritical and shortsighted. Hypocritical, because Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was on record praising the job Rudd is doing. Shortsighted, because it is important that Australia’s senior diplomats – especially in a post like Washington and a time when the US is divided and chaotic – should have bipartisan support. </p>
<p>George Brandis, the former Liberal attorney-general who also served as high commissioner in London, made the case on Thursday. </p>
<p>He warned that lack of such support diminished the person’s authority “and therefore diminishes their influence in the country in which they are accredited, and that’s plainly not in Australia’s national interest”.</p>
<p>Brandis told the ABC Rudd “has plainly done a very good job in the time since he’s been there. In particular, by landing the AUKUS deal through a very divided Congress last year on a bipartisan basis. This is in a Washington in which there’s very little bipartisanship at the moment.” </p>
<p>Both sides of politics frequently put former politicians into the US ambassadorship, and they can be particularly effective in the Washington jungle. They can get good access in political circles and they have the ear of their political masters back home. </p>
<p>In recent years Kim Beazley (former Labor leader), Joe Hockey (former Liberal treasurer) and Arthur Sinodinos (former Liberal minister) have all served Australia extremely well in Washington. </p>
<p>Hockey was able to get an “in” with the Trump camp before he was elected, and used some golf diplomacy to build a relationship with the president himself. </p>
<p>Rudd was a controversial appointment, even within Labor. But his background, both as a former PM and foreign minister and an expert in international relations and notably on China, well qualified him for the post. </p>
<p>He has so far met its key performance indicators, especially in the lobbying required to get support to implement AUKUS (an ongoing task, incidentally). Predictions he’d shoot his mouth off have, so far, been off the mark. </p>
<p>How well Rudd would go if there were a Trump administration is unknowable. Not as well as Hockey did probably. But likely well enough; he should have the skills and contacts to work around some of the obstacles he’d face. </p>
<p>The bigger and broader question is how the Albanese government would manage a Trump presidency. </p>
<p>In his book <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Bruce-Wolpe-Trump's-Australia-9781761068096">Trump’s Australia</a>, published last year, Bruce Wolpe, who was a staffer for Julia Gillard and worked with the US Democrats, wrote: “Australia needs to start engaging with the existential issues posed by a Trump return to the presidency now.</p>
<p>"Australian democracy will survive Trump. But the alliance with America may not. As long as Trump is within reach of the presidency in 2024, this question is a clear and present danger to Australia and its future.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-third-presidential-nomination-has-never-been-in-doubt-hes-made-an-art-of-political-survival-224146">Donald Trump's third presidential nomination has never been in doubt. He's made an art of political survival</a>
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<p>At government and bureaucratic levels, there is what is described as much anxiety about the possibility of a Trump presidency. Views among experts differ about Australian-American relations if that eventuated. </p>
<p>Australian National University strategic expert John Blaxland, who is currently based in Washington, says while the optics of the relationship would be rather different, the substance wouldn’t change much.</p>
<p>That substance, Blaxland says, is driven by realpolitik – the crucial, increasing importance of Australian naval facilities for submarine warfare, the intelligence footprint and the large amount of US investment. “America is hugely invested economically in Australia. Trump, if anything, is a businessman.”</p>
<p>In addition, he says, “across Congress and in the circle of Trump administration appointees there is a remarkable level of goodwill towards Australia”.</p>
<p>Blaxland discounts the Trump sledge against Rudd, saying Trump would only act “if something else happened and that won’t happen”. Rudd has been “scrupulous” as ambassador; “the idea he’s going to lunge at Trump is far-fetched”.</p>
<p>Blaxland sees Trump’s attack as “designed to give him a leg up in any future negotiations with Australia or Rudd”.</p>
<p>Sydney University’s Simon Jackman is less sanguine. He believes managing a Trump presidency would be a “challenge” for the Albanese government, as it was for the Coalition government.</p>
<p>Jackman argues that a second Trump administration would be different from his first, when many officials moved in at lower levels to protect American foreign policy and US alliances from the excesses of Trump.</p>
<p>“That won’t be in place in Trump Mark Two. Loyalty to Trump will be turned up by a factor of ten.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinese-foreign-minister-wang-yi-declines-to-front-media-after-talks-with-penny-wong-226221">Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi declines to front media after talks with Penny Wong</a>
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<p>Operating in Australia’s favour, Jackman says, would be two factors in particular. Trump “sees China in broad terms, he gets the totality of China”, and Australia is a “paying customer – hard money is changing hands in exchange for access to American military technology”.</p>
<p>At a personal level, Jackman believes the Albanese-Trump interactions would be likely confined to the sidelines of international gatherings, rather than the PM being feted in Washington. As for Rudd, Jackman says Australia “might have to rethink” his position, although no doubt a transition would be finessed.</p>
<p>When Albanese contemplates the possibility of a second Trump presidency, he might remember that his two predecessors, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, were able to ensure Australia did quite well in protecting its interests (varying from preserving a refugee deal to avoiding punitive action against steel). </p>
<p>For Albanese, it would be a matter of finding his own way of dealing with an extraordinarily unpredictable and difficult leader of our main alliance partner.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the joke in American diplomatic circles is that Trump’s sledge pales besides some of what Rudd’s colleagues used to say about him.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kevin Rudd received gratuitous comments from Donald Trump this week, leading the opposition to try score political points. But the question remains how Albanese will manage a possible Trump Mark 2?Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244842024-03-20T12:22:46Z2024-03-20T12:22:46ZNixon declared Americans deserved to know ‘whether their president is a crook’ – Trump says the opposite<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578092/original/file-20240226-18-9gxbhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C34%2C1518%2C839&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Richard Nixon and Donald Trump may seem similar, but they have key differences.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Official White House portraits</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the four criminal trials of Donald Trump was slated to start in the next few days, but has been <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/15/1238915986/trump-trial-new-york-delay-judge-stormy-daniels">delayed on procedural grounds</a>. There was a time when it appeared <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/nyregion/trump-indictments-trial-2024-election.html">possible all of his trials could happen</a> before the November election. Now <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24055503/trump-trials-fani-willis-jack-smith-alvin-bragg">it is unclear whether even one</a> will begin in time. As a result, on Election Day, the voting public may not know a key fact about candidate Trump: whether a jury has found him guilty of one or more crimes.</p>
<p>Like Trump, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/frenzy/nixon.htm">scandal followed Richard Nixon</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/101072-1.htm">throughout his political career</a>. And, like Trump, Nixon always managed to claw his way back into the political forefront.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/080974-3.htm">Until he didn’t</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ow6DhIQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of American politics and public opinion</a>, I believe the <a href="https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/trump-and-nixon-separated-at-birth/">parallels between Trump and Nixon</a> are clear. </p>
<p>Yet there is a telling difference between the two men. Nixon acknowledged the fundamental importance of accountability in a democracy. He went so far as to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/111873-1.htm">famously declare</a> – during the height of the Watergate scandal – that “people have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.”</p>
<p>Trump, on the other hand, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-not-immune-election-subversion-charges-us-appeals-court-rules-2024-02-06/">outright rejects the assertion</a> that the American people should be able to find out what the justice system says about whether a prospective president is a crook.</p>
<p>In fact, he has gone so far as to assert that the “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/18/politics/trump-presidential-immunity/index.html">president of the United States must have full immunity</a>, without which it would be impossible for him/her to properly function.”</p>
<p>Nixon made a similar statement in 1977, telling British journalist David Frost in 1977 that “<a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/transcript-of-david-frosts-interview-with-richard-nixon/">when the president does it … that means that it is not illegal</a>.” But Nixon hastened to add a crucial caveat that he was talking about war powers and national security, and specifically emphasized that he did not “mean to suggest the president is above the law.” </p>
<p>Afterward, Nixon responded to the backlash from the interview, writing a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/06/05/president-isnt-above-the-law-nixon-insists/71923838-492f-49d7-921f-0add6743501e/">long-winded clarification</a> that reiterated that the president is not above the law. </p>
<h2>Similar, but quite different</h2>
<p>Superficially, Nixon and Trump’s brands of politics share a lot of similarities. </p>
<p>Both men positioned themselves against allegedly crooked liberal elites and used the fact that they were being investigated as evidence that the people in power were trying to silence them and people like them. </p>
<p>As far back as 1952, Nixon was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/frenzy/nixon.htm">accused of keeping a secret stash of donor funds</a> when he was a U.S. senator and a candidate for vice president. His fate as Dwight D. Eisenhower’s running mate in that year’s presidential election looked increasingly uncertain.</p>
<p>His instinct was to go public. On live TV, in what came to be known as the “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/eisenhower-checkers/">Checkers speech</a>,” Nixon took his case directly to the American people. He positioned himself – an ordinary American with two mortgages, a bank loan and a loan from his parents – against the political elite. That elite, Nixon said, believed only rich men should be in politics, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/politicians-have-long-used-the-forgotten-man-to-win-elections-103570">Nixon was just a regular guy</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpts from Nixon’s ‘Checkers’ speech saying he had not profited personally from public service. The speech is nicknamed for the dog that was the one gift from supporters he planned to keep.</span></figcaption>
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<p>More than two decades later, Nixon, again facing disgrace, took his case to the public. The Watergate scandal, in which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2002/05/31/AR2005111001227.html">Republican operatives sought to secretly listen in on Democratic Party business</a>, broke in the summer of 1972. Even before that year’s election, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/fbi-finds-nixon-aides-sabotaged-democrats/2012/06/06/gJQAoHIJJV_story.html">Nixon’s White House aides</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bug-suspect-got-campaign-funds/2012/06/06/gJQAyTjKJV_story.html">his campaign</a> were linked to the effort. Nixon went on to <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1972_Election/">win every state but Massachusetts</a> in the Electoral College.</p>
<p>His popularity <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/richard-m-nixon-public-approval">peaked at 67%</a> in late January 1973 following the inauguration for his second term. However, as the Watergate scandal unfolded, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/3-top-nixon-aides-kleindienst-out-president-accepts-full-responsibility-richardson-will-conduct-new-probe/2012/06/04/gJQAx7oFJV_story.html">Nixon’s personal involvement</a> in the spying and attempts to cover it up <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/060373-1.htm">became increasingly clear</a> to the public. <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/richard-m-nixon-public-approval">His popularity plummeted</a>.</p>
<p>One year after a landslide Electoral College victory, only <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/richard-m-nixon-public-approval">27% of Americans</a> approved of the job Nixon was doing as president. In that context, Nixon made a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/111873-1.htm">public plea of innocence and forthrightness</a>, declaring that the “people have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.” And he immediately followed that statement with a lie: “Well, I’m not a crook.”</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Richard Nixon acknowledges the importance of accountability in a democracy.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A contrast in support, and tactics</h2>
<p>Nixon’s instinct to make his case to the American people in the face of political peril emphasizes a key difference from Trump.</p>
<p>Throughout his first term, Nixon enjoyed substantially higher approval than Trump. <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx">On average</a>, 56% of Americans approved of the job Nixon was doing in his first term, compared with only 41% for Trump. Liberal elites may have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/26/archives/drugs-case-for-legalizing-marijuana.html">decried Nixon’s claim</a> that he had the support of a “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/nixon-silent-majority/">silent majority</a>” at the time, but from a historical perspective, his popularity is undeniable.</p>
<p>Trump’s approval tells a different story and illustrates the differences in the breadth and depth of their support. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.25940/ROPER-31087813">February 1972</a>, 52% of Americans approved of the job Nixon was doing: 80% of Republicans, 51% of independents and 36% of Democrats. Compare that with Trump’s approval in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx">February 2020</a>: 47% overall approval, 92% approval among Republicans, 42% with independents and 8% with Democrats.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/">most recent polls</a> show that Trump is leading in 2024’s apparent rematch of the 2020 election, he rarely eclipses the 50% threshold. Trump is president of a vocal minority, not the silent majority. Trump doesn’t have to appeal to Democrats, or the median voter for that matter, because he has the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/23/464129029/donald-trump-i-could-shoot-somebody-and-i-wouldnt-lose-any-voters">undying support</a> of his faction. And the <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-brief-history-of-electoral-college-bias/">U.S. system of electing presidents</a> is biased in a way that means his vocal minority can deliver victory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224484/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Spencer Goidel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The parallels between Trump and Nixon are abundantly clear. Yet even Nixon acknowledged the fundamental importance of accountability in a democracy.Spencer Goidel, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Auburn UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261872024-03-20T00:01:16Z2024-03-20T00:01:16ZTrump judgments: What’s an appeal bond? What happens if he can’t get a $454 million loan?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582922/original/file-20240319-20-w1pwmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C40%2C2932%2C1953&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump's identity has always been closely tied to his wealth – and was also a means to roast him, such as by Comedy Central in 2011.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ComedyCentralRoastofDonaldTrump/1eea992d88b54cb588cb650e31054148/photo?Query=trump%20money&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1023&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=12&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Charles Sykes</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Lawyers for Donald Trump on March 18, 2024, told a New York court that the former president <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/nyregion/trump-bond-ny-fraud-case.html">has been unable to secure</a> a US$454 million bond as he appeals a New York civil fraud ruling against him.</em></p>
<p><em>Their “diligent efforts” reportedly involved approaching about 30 bond companies, which all said “no.”</em></p>
<p><em>Time is running out for Trump, who has until March 25 to either secure the bond, known as an appeal bond, or pay that amount himself in cash.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked <a href="https://michiganross.umich.edu/faculty-research/faculty/will-thomas">Will Thomas</a>, a business law professor at the University of Michigan, to explain why Trump needs an appeal bond and what happens if he doesn’t get it by the deadline.</em></p>
<h2>What’s an appeal bond?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.americanbar.org/groups/judicial/publications/appellate_issues/2019/summer/staying-judgment-with-appeal-bonds/">An appeal bond</a>, sometimes referred to by the Latin supersedeas, meaning “you shall desist,” is a guarantee that the party appealing a ruling against them can and will pay the judgment if their appeal is ultimately unsuccessful. The person appealing the ruling is known as the appellant.</p>
<p>Appeal bonds are offered by licensed providers such as insurance companies and bondsmen who specialize in offering these kinds of guarantees. It’s common in civil cases for the appellant to get an appeal bond. </p>
<p>In order to convince a bondsman to give you an appeal bond, you need to offer them collateral, such as real estate or other assets, in exchange. That way, in case they end up on the hook for the appellant’s judgment, they can sell the collateral to pay it.</p>
<p>The size of the appeal bond is larger than the actual judgment – in Trump’s case, the judgment is $355 million – because the appellant will be expected to pay interest on the original judgment should they lose their appeal. The bond is meant to cover whatever those estimated costs will be. So, for example, Trump recently appealed an $83 million judgment in a separate defamation case brought by columnist E. Jean Carroll. To do so, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-approves-trumps-bond-e-jean-carroll-defamation-case/story?id=108062778">he secured an appeal bond worth $91.6 million</a>.</p>
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<img alt="several men and a woman sit at a wooden table in a courtroom with observers behind them" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582925/original/file-20240319-24-9ffojk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582925/original/file-20240319-24-9ffojk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582925/original/file-20240319-24-9ffojk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582925/original/file-20240319-24-9ffojk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582925/original/file-20240319-24-9ffojk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582925/original/file-20240319-24-9ffojk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582925/original/file-20240319-24-9ffojk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Donald Trump sits in a New York courtroom with his legal team during his civil trial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpFraudLawsuit/26e84c9365de4786b28ceedffac4f330/photo?Query=donald%20trump%20call%20fraud&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=25&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span>
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<h2>Why do courts ask for them?</h2>
<p>The point of an appeal bond is to protect the rights of the party who won at trial. The appeals process can be slow, <a href="https://www.nycourts.gov/courts/ad2/PJ_Scheinkman_Initiatives.shtml">taking months or even years</a>, and a lot can happen during that period. </p>
<p>An appellant might suffer some unexpected financial hardship – or, more cynically, they might use the delay as an opportunity to sell, hide or otherwise get rid of assets that they otherwise would have to hand over to the trial winner. Securing a bond guarantees that, whatever happens to the appellant, there is someone standing ready to pay the trial judgment when the appeals process is over.</p>
<p>Of course, courts could accomplish the same protection by requiring the appellant to pay the entire judgment upfront before appealing. And, in fact, that’s allowed as well. In Trump’s case, New York law allows him to pay the $454 million to the state of New York today. But that approach can be hugely expensive: A bond will have the same effect at a fraction of the cost – all you have to do is put up collateral and make regular payments on the bond, much like someone would pay premiums on an insurance policy.</p>
<p>So really, the appeals bond is something of a compromise: It preserves the trial winner’s ability to collect a judgment down the road, and it allows the appellant to appeal without having to surrender all their assets up front. </p>
<h2>Trump is reportedly very rich. Why is he struggling to secure a bond?</h2>
<p>Trump’s problem is <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/trump-says-full-ny-appeal-bond-impossible-without-fire-sale-1">none of the major insurers or licensed bond providers</a> apparently has been willing to issue a bond of this size without collateral that is liquid – think cash or investments like stocks that can be easily sold, as opposed to real estate that can be hard to dispose of. </p>
<p>And neither Trump nor the Trump Organization, both of whom are defendants in the case, has that much cash available. Trump testified earlier at trial that the organization had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/28/trump-said-he-had-400-million-cash-now-his-lawyers-say-bond-is-struggle/">$400 million in liquid assets</a>, while a New York Times analysis <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/01/nyregion/donald-trump-money.html">put the number closer to $350 million</a>. Either way, that’s not enough to cover the bond, which would need to be $454 million to cover both the judgment and any interest that accrued during the appeal. </p>
<p>And let’s not forget that around $100 million of Trump’s liquid assets were already pledged to secure a different appeal bond in his other New York civil case involving Carroll. </p>
<p>So while it’s true that Trump and the Trump Organization <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-07/donald-trump-net-worth-reaches-3-1-billion-amid-trial">have billions in assets</a>, those assets mostly come in the form of commercial real estate like Trump Tower.</p>
<p>And it’s maybe not surprising that an insurer wouldn’t want to accept real estate as collateral. Yes, <a href="https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/tto_release_properties_addendum_-_final.pdf">Trump Tower</a>, in New York City’s Manhattan borough, is valuable, but owning and managing or even just trying to sell commercial real estate can be a huge, expensive hassle. For an insurance company not already in the real estate business, it may want to avoid a possibility where Trump ultimately doesn’t make good on his judgment payments and the insurer is forced instead to own – and then try to sell – an asset like Trump Tower. </p>
<p>Add onto this fact that companies might understandably be wary to do business with the Trump Organization. After all, the conclusion reached at trial was that the Trump Organization <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-civil-fraud-verdict-engoron-244024861f0df886543c157c9fc5b3e4#:%7E:text=Judge%20orders%20Trump%20to%20pay,in%20staggering%20civil%20fraud%20ruling&text=A%20New%20York%20judge%20ordered,statements%20that%20inflated%20his%20wealth.">routinely lied to financial institutions</a> about the value of Trump’s assets in order to secure favorable business loans. It’s a bit ironic, then, that Trump is now struggling to convince financial institutions to take seriously his representations about his ability to pay his debts.</p>
<h2>What happens if he can’t get the bond?</h2>
<p>Assuming Trump and the Trump Organization cannot secure a bond, there are a few possible paths forward – most of them ranging from bad to disastrous for Trump. </p>
<p>The best scenario for Trump is that the New York appellate court might decide on its own to grant Trump’s request to stop New York from collecting its judgment. Securing a bond would automatically prevent New York from collecting its judgment while the appeal process is ongoing, but the appellate court likely has the inherent power to grant that same temporary legal protection without a bond or, as the Trump team <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-failed-get-appeal-bond-454-mln-civil-fraud-judgment-lawyers-say-2024-03-18/">has suggested in this case</a>, with a partial bond worth about $100 million. </p>
<p>If I had to guess, I suspect that something like this is the most likely outcome, if only because the other outcomes are so bad.</p>
<p>What are the other possibilities? First, Trump could sell assets to generate the cash he needs to secure a bond. This would be an especially expensive outcome from Trump and his businesses because, when it comes to real estate, the worst time to sell is when you are being forced to do so. </p>
<p>Second, either Trump or his businesses could declare bankruptcy. Bankruptcy, after all, is meant to protect people who can’t pay the debts they currently owe, which would be Trump in this situation.</p>
<p>We actually saw a version of this scenario playing out a few years ago when <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/gawker-begins-appeal-of-140-million-hulk-hogan-verdict-1459889289">Gawker Media was unable to afford an appeal bond</a> after losing its invasion of privacy trial to Hulk Hogan. </p>
<p>Third, the state of New York has the right to seize Trump properties in order to cover the judgment. Attorney General Letitia James has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/letitia-james-shes-prepared-seize-trumps-assets-pay/story?id=107381482">already stated</a> that she is willing to do this if Trump doesn’t provide a bond. From there, the state could sell the properties it seized or, more likely, it would hold onto the properties until after the appeals process ends, in case the state loses or has its judgment amount reduced.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Thomas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump has apparently been unable to secure the appeal bond he needs to avoid paying the civil fraud judgment against him.Will Thomas, Assistant Professor of Business Law, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250982024-03-19T18:17:40Z2024-03-19T18:17:40ZJapan has abandoned decades of pacifism in response to Ukraine invasion and increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza, have left tens of thousands dead and sent shockwaves across Europe and the Middle East. But – brutal and tragic as they are – the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are regionally bounded, meaning that most of the rest of the world rolls along, largely unaffected. This will not be the case if armed conflict breaks out in east Asia.</p>
<p>Thanks to rising tensions in the Taiwan Straits, Kim Jong Un’s sabre-rattling on the Korean Peninsula, Sino-US rivalry and China’s developing alliance with Russia the risks of armed conflict shattering this region are growing, with far-reaching ramifications. </p>
<p>East Asia <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/05/01/asia-poised-to-drive-global-economic-growth-boosted-by-chinas-reopening">drives the global economy</a>. Taiwan is pivotal to the global semiconductor industry – essential to modern life. Taiwanese semiconductors power everything from TVs to cars, guided missiles to AI-bots. After Taiwan, neighbouring South Korea has the second-highest market share. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, despite the US and EU’s efforts to reduce their dependency on China, it remains by far the world’s biggest manufacturer. Global supply chains bring commodities, components, and finished goods in and out of the region through major sea-trade routes south to the straits of Malacca and east across the Pacific to the Americas. </p>
<p>Against this tense backdrop, later this year the US will elect a new president. As the incumbent, Joe Biden, struggles in the polls, his rival Donald Trump’s prospects are improving. This is leading to grave and growing concerns in Europe that Trump will abandon Ukraine – and perhaps even Nato itself, overturning decades of security stability in Europe. But what of east Asia? </p>
<h2>Cornerstone for Asian security</h2>
<p>The security of east Asia – and thus the stability of the global economy – is predicated on a country we have yet to mention: Japan. The US-Japanese alliance has defined Asian security since the early days of the cold war and US troops have had a continuous presence on Japanese soil since 1945. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-japan-security-alliance">1960 treaty</a> on which it is based, if Japan is attacked, the US must come to its defence. The obligation is not mutual, however, thanks to the pacifist clause US officials inserted into <a href="https://japan.kantei.go.jp/constitution_and_government_of_japan/constitution_e.html">Japan’s postwar constitution</a>. </p>
<p>The intention was to prevent Japan becoming a future threat, and the result is that Japan became an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”, with US military bases scattered across the archipelago. </p>
<p>This “Pax Americana” enabled decades of regional peace and economic growth – albeit on terms dictated by the US. For decades, Japan was a sleeping partner in all this: enjoying the peace and prosperity without spending much on its own military or getting involved in US adventurism.</p>
<p>But after years of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/11/japan-prime-minister-rearmament-china-north-korea/">US pressure to remilitarise</a>, today Japan is <a href="https://news.usni.org/2023/12/22/japanese-cabinet-approves-largest-ever-defense-budget">increasing military spending</a> and taking a regional leadership role. This is Japan’s response to a rising China, relative US decline, and increasingly isolationist American public opinion – not to mention Trump’s “America first” rhetoric. </p>
<h2>‘Proactive Pacifism’</h2>
<p>Today’s changes are the culmination of decades of drift from pacifism to “normality”. Following Shinzo Abe’s return to power in 2012, Japan rolled out a new security doctrine in the form of its <a href="https://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/ejcjs/vol18/iss3/envall.html">“proactive pacifism”</a>. </p>
<p>As part of this shift, in December 2022 Japan introduced a revised <a href="https://www.mod.go.jp/j/policy/agenda/guideline/pdf/security_strategy_en.pdf">national security strategy</a> and new security institutions such as a <a href="https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/nsp/page1we_000080.html">National Security Council</a>. It has lifted a long-standing <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/22/japan-eases-curbs-on-weapons-exports-raises-defence-budget-to-record-56bn">ban on arms exports</a>, initiated new <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-role-advancing-networked-regional-security-architecture">regional security partnerships</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/13/japans-pm-vows-to-modernise-military-for-new-era-of-threats">modernised</a> its military, and reinterpreted the postwar pacifist constitution to allow for Japan’s participation in <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/japans-evolving-position-use-force-collective-self-defense">collective self-defence</a> operations alongside allies. </p>
<p>Most importantly, Abe’s government crafted its <a href="https://www.asean.emb-japan.go.jp/files/000352880.pdf">“Free and Open Indo-Pacific”</a> vision, thus engineering a new geopolitical space that has defined the parameters for rebalancing China’s rise.</p>
<p>These changes were designed to increase Japan’s influence within the context of the US alliance. Then came Trump’s 2016 presidential election. The rhetoric of “America first” increased fears of abandonment in Tokyo. Given the alternative scenario – facing China alone – the Abe government worked hard to keep Trump onside, making trade and diplomatic concessions, and pledging to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14799855.2020.1838486">“make the alliance even greater”</a>. </p>
<h2>After Ukraine</h2>
<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the final nail in the coffin of Japan’s postwar pacifism. On the first anniversary of the invasion, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/25/japan/politics/japan-ukraine-anniversary-g7/">warned,</a> “Ukraine today could be east Asia tomorrow,” implying that Taiwan could be next. </p>
<p>Continuing where Abe left off, he pledged to increase military spending as well as lifting the remaining restrictions on arms exports, while <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01442872.2024.2309218">strengthening Japan’s relations with Nato</a>.</p>
<p>Increasing global instability has prompted Japan to abandon its low-profile, economy-first approach, seeking instead to shape regional and even global geopolitics. By expanding its security role, it has made itself even more indispensable to the US, which sees China as the primary long-term threat. </p>
<p>So, while Japan may fear a second Trump presidency, the risk of abandonment is lower than that faced by America’s allies in Europe. Still, the long-term trend would appear to be that the US is pulling back and expecting its allies to do more. Meanwhile the instability of US politics in an election year means that nothing can be taken for granted.</p>
<p>As the US recedes, can Japan fill the gap? Or will its ambitions exceed its capabilities? Already, plans to further develop its military are hampered by a shrinking economy and a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/japan-population-how-many-people-drops-first-time-births-deaths">shrinking population</a>. While China faces similar issues, its economy is over four times bigger than that of Japan’s, and its population is ten times the size. </p>
<p>Thus, the only realistic way for Japan to balance China, manage North Korea, and maintain its regional position, is for the US to stay engaged. And even that might not be enough to prevent China from invading Taiwan. The future of the region, and of the global economy, hangs in the balance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The invasion of Ukraine and increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan have prompted Japan to abandon decades of pacifism.Paul O'Shea, Senior Lecturer, Centre for East and South-East Asian Studies, Lund UniversitySebastian Maslow, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Sendai Shirayuri Women’s CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215672024-03-19T12:27:35Z2024-03-19T12:27:35ZUS democracy’s unaddressed flaws undermine Biden’s stand as democracy’s defender − but Trump keeps favoring political violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581766/original/file-20240313-18-8p9hen.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=297%2C152%2C4186%2C3446&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy in the U.S. has historically not been available to all.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/waving-flag-united-states-on-a-dark-wall-royalty-free-illustration/513437560?phrase=democracy+united+states&adppopup=true">Panacea Doll/iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden argues that “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/us/politics/biden-speech-trump-jan-6.html">democracy is on the ballot</a>” in the 2024 election. </p>
<p>We believe there are potential threats to U.S. democracy posed by the choices voters make in this election. But the benefits of American democracy have for centuries been unequally available, and any discussion of the current threats needs to happen against that background. </p>
<p>One of us is a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xdia5UoAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist who focuses on civic engagement</a>; the other is a <a href="https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/about/leadership/dayna-l-cunningham-dean">former voting rights lawyer</a>. At Tufts University’s Tisch College of Civic Life, we both lead nonpartisan efforts to educate college students and other people about their roles in democracy. </p>
<p>For us, Biden’s talk of democracy is a useful starting point for a broader conversation about U.S. democracy and the 2024 election. </p>
<h2>The ‘sacred cause’</h2>
<p>On Jan. 5, 2024, the president delivered a speech in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania, titled “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/05/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-third-anniversary-of-the-january-6th-attack-and-defending-the-sacred-cause-of-american-democracy-blue-bell-pa/">Defending the Sacred Cause of American Democracy</a>.” </p>
<p>As a candidate for reelection at the early stages of a political campaign, the president argued that he and his fellow Democratic candidates are in favor of democracy. Former President Donald Trump and his supporters in the U.S. Congress, said Biden, are against it.</p>
<p>In this speech and other statements, Biden makes the following case: Trump supported or even incited the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, and he refuses to <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/biden-jan-6-valley-forge-speech-2024-election-pennsylvania/">denounce political violence</a>. Trump floats ideas for his second presidential term that include <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-military-insurrection-act-2024-election-03858b6291e4721991b5a18c2dfb3c36">invoking the Insurrection Act</a>, which authorizes the president to deploy the military inside the United States. </p>
<p>In contrast, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris argue that they respect the Constitution, recognize their limited power and limited importance as leaders within a constitutional order and support freedom of speech. They maintain, in Biden’s words, that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/05/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-third-anniversary-of-the-january-6th-attack-and-defending-the-sacred-cause-of-american-democracy-blue-bell-pa/">political violence is never, ever acceptable</a> in the United States.”</p>
<p>The basic facts in Biden’s speech appear accurate: Trump’s own statements support some of Biden’s claims. </p>
<p>If elected again, Trump is reportedly considering deploying the Insurrection Act <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">against civilian protests</a>. He has expressed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/11/12/donald-trump-comments-xi-jinping-kim-jong-un-new-hampshire-rally-se-cupp-acostanr-vpx.cnn">open admiration for foreign authoritarian leaders</a>, most recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-watched-hungarys-democracy-dissolve-into-authoritarianism-as-a-member-of-parliament-and-i-see-troubling-parallels-in-trumpism-and-its-appeal-to-workers-224930">Hungary’s Viktor Orban</a>. He encouraged <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-guard-vote-election-2024-flynn-39d41fe4f7229d4ab7e1956efc428e10">his supporters to “guard the vote” and to “watch those votes” in certain cities</a>, which some interpret as threatening and potentially intimidating to election workers. </p>
<p>Trump has threatened to prosecute his political opponents, claiming in October 2023 that since he was being prosecuted during the Biden administration, that provided justification for him to do the same.</p>
<p>“This is third-world-country stuff, ‘<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">arrest your opponent</a>,’” Trump said during a New Hampshire campaign visit. “And that means I can do that, too.”</p>
<h2>Democracy vs. security</h2>
<p>Biden’s own record, however, undermines some of his claims to be fully committed to democracy. </p>
<p>The Biden-Harris administration <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/3924376-double-standard-will-biden-truly-champion-human-rights/">has been accused</a> by human rights advocates and <a href="https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/in-the-news/senators-warn-biden-that-a-defense-pact-with-authoritarian-saudi-arabia-in-exchange-for-normalizing-ties-with-israel-hurts-american-interests">even Democratic senators</a> of a double standard: championing democracy while maintaining close ties with authoritarian leaders, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-repressive-saudi-arabia-remains-a-us-ally-156281">including the Saudis</a>. </p>
<p>At the very least, Biden has continued a historic pattern of U.S. engagement across the globe that <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/13/examining-u.s.-relations-with-authoritarian-countries-pub-91231">prioritizes security over human rights</a> and liberal democracy. His administration is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html">widely criticized</a> for its support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza and its disastrous humanitarian consequences.</p>
<p>At home, despite a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/20/upshot/biden-budget-before-after-animation.html">major expansion of the government’s role</a> in the economy, the Biden administration <a href="https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/new-goals-old-tools-broadening-public-participation-regulatory-process-biden-administration">has not done anything significant</a> to make federal policymaking more democratic or participatory.</p>
<h2>Longer trends</h2>
<p>It’s helpful to step back from the daily campaign and its heightened rhetoric and consider how Biden’s assertion holds up in light of general research and evidence about democracy in the U.S. That analysis reveals a more complex picture of threats to democracy, some of which are specific to the upcoming election. Others have existed for some time.</p>
<p>In their 2020 book “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250244420/fourthreats%22%22">Four Threats: The Recurring Crises of American Democracy</a>,” political scientists Suzanne Mettler and Robert C. Lieberman argue that democracies in general suffer when any of four trends occur: intense partisan polarization, efforts to exclude some people from the electorate, economic inequality and unilateral exercises of power by the executive branch.</p>
<p>Mettler and Lieberman show that each of these trends has been rising in the U.S. for several decades. Applying their framework, we’d note that both Biden and Trump used a <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-like-trump-sidesteps-congress-to-get-things-done-218010">comparable number of executive orders</a> – 127 and 137, respectively – in their first three years to bypass a reluctant Congress and enact policies unilaterally. The Biden administration has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/us/politics/student-loan-debt-supreme-court-executive-power.html">credibly accused of stretching executive power</a> in areas such as student loan forgiveness.</p>
<p>These long-term trends mean that neither Trump nor Biden is mainly responsible for causing them. Biden criticized all four of these threats in his Jan. 5 speech, however, whereas Trump often <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3941462-trump-wishes-happy-easter-to-pathetic-rinos-and-radical-left-democrats/">endorses political polarization</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/us/politics/trump-plans-2025.html">limitless executive power</a> and has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-invalidate-votes-in-heavily-black-cities-alarms-civil-rights-group">challenged the validity of votes</a> cast in urban and suburban areas with significant minority populations. This difference lends support to Biden’s argument.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of angry people in front of a large white, domed building, with dark clouds above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-Trump protesters gather in front of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington, D.C., a day that may have signaled the beginning of an era of political violence in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-trump-protesters-including-proud-boys-leader-joe-biggs-news-photo/1230457865?adppopup=true">Jon Cherry/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Violence as a threat to democracy</h2>
<p>Notable in Biden’s campaign rhetoric about democracy is his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jan/05/donald-trump-election-warning-nikki-haley-joe-biden-latest-news?page=with%3Ablock-65987be28f08d8e96baf827e#block-65987be28f08d8e96baf827e">alarm about political violence</a>. In any democracy, violence is a threat because, among other things, it intimidates people and makes participation dangerous. In the U.S., political violence has always been associated with attempts to deny democratic rights. It is <a href="https://www.amacad.org/publication/story-violence-america">often racialized</a> and targeted at the most vulnerable communities. </p>
<p>By its very nature, the system of slavery required extreme violence, political repression and the denial of democratic rights to enslaved black people. Though rarely recognized as such in history books, it could be characterized as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479803729.003.0010">racially targeted police state</a> coexisting within a liberal democracy for whites only.</p>
<p>Governance under slavery included organized vigilante violence, repression of dissent, violent clashes and rebellions, harsh suppression, broad prosecution of dissidents, and systematic passage of restrictive laws or renewed enforcement of existing measures when resistance emerged.</p>
<p>Desmond S. King and Rogers M. Smith in “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691142630/still-a-house-divided">Still a House Divided</a>” catalog some of these patterns. Even after slavery and the post-Civil War period known as Reconstruction, <a href="https://eji.org/reports/reconstruction-in-america-overview/">political violence</a> – frequently in response to Black political mobilization or the exercise of basic rights – helped maintain what was known as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/summary/Jim-Crow-Laws-Key-Facts">Jim Crow rule</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://eji.org/report/reconstruction-in-america/">Two major instances among many stand out</a>: the 1898 “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-white-supremacist-coup-succeeded-in-1898-north-carolina-led-by-lying-politicians-and-racist-newspapers-that-amplified-their-lies-153052">Wilmington coup</a>,” when white supremacists overthrew the democratically elected biracial city government, and the destruction of a city’s vibrant Black business district and community in <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-grandfather-to-grandson-the-lessons-of-the-tulsa-race-massacre-140925">the Tulsa Race Massacre of 1921</a>. </p>
<p>Violence as a threat to democracy is by no means new, but the U.S. may be entering a new violent chapter. </p>
<p>While we do not have extensive historical data, the rate of political violence seems high now, and there are indications of dangerous trends. For example, in 2023, the U.S. Capitol Police <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/19/politics/uscp-threat-assessment-lawmakers-2023/index.html">investigated</a> more than 8,000 threats against members of Congress, a substantial increase over 2022. The number of serious threats against federal judges has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-judges-threats/">increased each year</a> since 2019 and is 2.5 times higher now than five years ago. </p>
<p>Citing data collected by Nathan P. Kalmoe, Lilliana Mason and Bright Line Watch, <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=AUa1y3wAAAAJ&hl=en">democracy scholar Rachel Kleinfeld</a> <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-rise-of-political-violence-in-the-united-states/">shows</a> that the percentage of both Democrats and Republicans who believe that violence is sometimes justified to achieve their political goals has more than doubled since 2017, although this remains a minority view in both parties. </p>
<p>From 2020 to 2023, the <a href="https://acleddata.com/">Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project</a> <a href="https://peterlevine.ws/?p=30819">cataloged</a> 1,080 demonstrations in the United States that the organization labels violent – along with more than 50 times as many nonviolent demonstrations – plus 157 cases of excessive force against demonstrators and 22 armed clashes. This data establishes a baseline for tracking the phenomenon in the near future.</p>
<p>From our perspective, nonviolent protests are expressions of a vibrant democracy that deserve protection. There may be room to debate some of the protests labeled “violent.” However, the sheer number of demonstrations that the project labels violent – more than 1,000 in four years – is concerning to us.</p>
<p>The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol may prove to be an example of a period of political unrest. Trump is deeply implicated in the violence. Biden is decrying it – but not necessarily proposing any response other than to vote against Trump.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are potential threats to US democracy posed by the choices voters make in this presidential election. But the benefits of American democracy have for centuries been unequally available.Dayna Cunningham, Pierre and Pamela Omidyar Dean, Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts UniversityPeter Levine, Tisch College Associate Dean for Academic Affairs and Lincoln Filene Professor, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254602024-03-18T23:18:23Z2024-03-18T23:18:23ZWith nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls; UK Labour far ahead as election approaches<p>Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/D">majority of all delegates</a> to their parties’ conventions, including delegates not yet allocated. </p>
<p>Both Biden and Trump won their nominations easily, with Biden taking 86.4% of the national Democratic primary vote in contests so far, far ahead of the next closest Marianne Williamson with 3.4%. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/R">Republican contest</a>, Trump defeated Nikki Haley by 73.4–23.1 in the national popular vote, with the winner takes all/most rules that apply for most Republican contests further benefitting him in delegates.</p>
<p>Conventions that formally elect the nominees will be held in July (for Republicans) and August (Democrats). If either Trump or Biden withdrew prior to the convention, delegates bound to that candidate would need to be persuaded to vote for another candidate. It could be messy to replace either Trump or Biden as the nominee.</p>
<h2>Trump is ahead in general election polls</h2>
<p>By the November 5 general election, Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo">FiveThirtyEight aggregates</a>, Biden’s net approval is -16.8, with 55.4% disapproving and 38.6% approving. Trump’s net favourability is -9.7, with 52.5% unfavourable and 42.8% favourable. Recently both Biden’s and Trump’s ratings have dipped, with Biden’s March 7 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery-2/">State of the Union address</a> making no difference.</p>
<p>Biden’s net approval is worse than <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">for any other president</a> at this stage of their presidency since scientific polling began in Harry Truman’s presidency (1945–53). John F. Kennedy and Gerald Ford were not president for as long as Biden has been.</p>
<p>There isn’t yet a FiveThirtyEight aggregate for <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/">general election polls</a>, but, while there are three recent national polls that give Biden one-to-two point leads, the large majority of national polls have Trump ahead, usually by low single-digit margins.</p>
<p>The national popular vote does not decide the presidency. Instead, there are 538 Electoral Votes distributed among the states based mostly on population, and it takes 270 to win. In my previous US politics article in December, I said that this system would probably favour Trump more than the national popular vote margin.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-elections-2024-a-biden-vs-trump-rematch-is-very-likely-with-trump-leading-biden-219093">US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden</a>
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<p>US <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence">consumer sentiment</a> surged from 61.3 points in November to 79 in January, the highest it has been since July 2021. In the next two months, consumer sentiment has fallen back a little to 76.5 in March. </p>
<p>The big gains in consumer sentiment were probably due to reduced inflation. However, the latest economic data suggests inflation is increasing again.</p>
<p>Despite the large gain in consumer sentiment, Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate have scarcely changed since my December article. This is bad for Biden, as it implies there is something else wrong other than economic sentiment; his age is the obvious answer.</p>
<p>In December I said the two main chances for a Biden revival were improved economic confidence and Trump being convicted. Economic confidence has improved, but without lifting Biden. On the legal front, Trump’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68577638">criminal trials all face delays</a> that may push them back until after the election. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court on March 4 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-05/trump-wins-us-supreme-court-ballot-colorado/103545028">unanimously overturned</a> a Colorado court’s decision, so Trump will be on the ballot paper in all states in November.</p>
<h2>US economic data</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">February US jobs report</a>, the unemployment rate increased 0.2% from January to 3.9%. While there were 275,000 jobs created in February, there were large downward revisions to job gains in December and January, resulting in 167,000 fewer jobs in those months than previously reported.</p>
<p>Inflation rose 0.4% <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">in February</a>, up from 0.3% in January and 0.2% in December. Core inflation also rose 0.4% in February (0.4% in January and 0.3% in December).</p>
<p>Real (inflation-adjusted) <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.t01.htm">hourly earnings</a> were down 0.4% in February, though real weekly earnings were flat owing to a gain in weekly hours worked. But there has been a trend towards fewer weekly hours, resulting in a real hourly wage gain of 1.1% in the last 12 months, but only a 0.5% real weekly gain.</p>
<h2>UK Labour far ahead as general election approaches</h2>
<p>The 650 members of the UK House of Commons are elected by first-past-the-post, where the candidate with more votes than any other wins the seat. The UK has five-year terms, and at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election">December 2019 election</a> Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a thumping victory.</p>
<p>Much has changed since 2019, with Johnson replaced as PM by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson#Premiership_(2019%E2%80%932022)">Liz Truss</a> in September 2022, then Truss was replaced by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss#Premiership_(2022)">Rishi Sunak</a> in October 2022.</p>
<p>Labour has led in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#">UK national polls</a> since late 2021, with their lead blowing out during Truss’ short stint as PM. While the Conservatives recovered some ground under Sunak, they have not been in a competitive position since Johnson was PM.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Politico Poll of polls</a> currently has Labour on 43%, the Conservatives on 24%, the far-right Reform on 12%, the liberal Liberal Democrats on 10%, the Greens on 5% and the Scottish National Party on 2%. The last two national polls, which were conducted after a scandal involving a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/14/tories-urged-return-further-5m-donation-frank-hester">Conservative donor accused of racism</a>, gave Labour 23 and 26-point leads.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html">Electoral Calculus</a> seat forecast in late February, based on estimated vote shares in polls of 43.1% Labour, 25.2% Conservative, 9.9% Lib Dems, 10.2% Reform, 5.9% Greens and 3.2% SNP, was a massive Labour landslide, with Labour winning 455 of the 650 seats, to 113 Conservatives, 40 Lib Dems and 18 SNP.</p>
<p>The Conservatives have also lost six of the last seven <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010%E2%80%93present)">byelections</a> in Conservative-held seats since July 2023, five to Labour and one to the Lib Dems. In many of these losses, there were massive swings.</p>
<p>Sunak can call a general election at any time, but it is likely to be held in late 2024, though it could be delayed until <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election">January 2025</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Trump v Biden contest shapes up ahead of the US presidential election in November, the polls are not favourable to the incumbent president.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252482024-03-18T17:08:11Z2024-03-18T17:08:11ZBiden v Trump: winning suburbia is key to clinching the presidency in 2024<p>The fight for votes in the upcoming US presidential election is likely to be particularly focused on suburbia.</p>
<p>Historically, Republicans win most support in rural areas and Democrats have larger vote shares in cities. But the suburbs have long been a <a href="https://www.unlv.edu/news/release/blue-metros-red-states-americas-suburbs-and-new-battleground-presidential-politics">political battleground</a>. </p>
<p>Voters in these areas have swung in favour of candidates of both parties in <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">recent elections</a>, making them a key target for political advertising in 2024. But there are a few key factors that could make the suburban vote slightly different this year. </p>
<p>Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have recorded electoral successes in suburban areas in past elections. In 2016, Trump outperformed Hillary Clinton in the suburbs, if only by a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKd0lNwopBqXpDglgvkrlqWgbTvsNNNSaWVtj-EkLJs/edit#gid=970549130">two-point margin</a> (47-45). Just two years into his presidency, however, voting behaviour in the suburbs shifted away from Trump’s Republican party. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKd0lNwopBqXpDglgvkrlqWgbTvsNNNSaWVtj-EkLJs/edit#gid=970549130">2018 midterms</a>, Democrats won the support of 52% of suburban voters while Republicans only received 45% of the vote. Biden was able to build on this momentum in 2020, with 54% of suburban residents casting their vote for the Biden-Harris ticket while Trump fell short of his 2016 result, receiving only 44% of the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">suburban vote in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>Under Biden, the midterms also saw slight shifts in voting behaviour in the suburbs. In the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">2022 midterms</a>, Democrats received slightly less support in the suburbs than in 2020 and 2018, gaining just 50% of the vote. Republicans, on the other hand, recorded 48%, a slight upward trend from their 2018 and 2020 results in suburban counties. </p>
<p>Only 5% of 2018 Democratic voters <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">swung Republican</a> in 2022 and only 4% of 2018 Republican voters switched to supporting Democratic candidates in 2022. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Suburban woman problem podcast.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Shifting political opinions may not be the only possible explanation for swing votes in suburban counties. According to data from Pew Research, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">voter turnout</a> is a much larger issue for both parties, though more so for Democrats. </p>
<p>Among suburban voters who voted for Democratic candidates in 2018, 22% did not vote in the 2022 midterms. On the Republican side, 16% of 2018 suburban voters stayed home in 2022. </p>
<p>Another possible explanation for shifting voting patterns in the suburbs lies in who has moved there recently. The population of the large suburban counties has increased by 25% in the 21st century. </p>
<p>Overall, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/07/29/prior-to-covid-19-urban-core-counties-in-the-u-s-were-gaining-vitality-on-key-measures/">population growth</a> in the suburbs has been above the national average. And since 2000, the US population has been increasingly concentrated in the 52 largest metropolitan areas, and particularly their suburban counties. </p>
<h2>Who will win Haley’s supporters?</h2>
<p>People living in the suburbs are now more likely, than in previous decades, to be <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/lbc/educational-attainment-rural?tid=1000">college-educated</a>, a demographic group that has been more likely to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/demographic-profiles-of-republican-and-democratic-voters/">vote for Democratic candidates</a> and hold <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/">more liberal political views</a>. </p>
<p>Interestingly, it was this demographic group, college-educated voters, who made up a large share of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/06/haley-trump-weakness-00145472">Nikki Haley’s supporters</a> during her Republican primary campaign. Many Republican women who backed Trump in 2016 and 2020 <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-18/south-carolina-suburban-women-see-haley-as-hope-for-republican-party">shifted to Haley</a> in the 2024 primaries – arguing that Haley would be able to unify the party and bring about change while Trump could not deliver on either of those issues.</p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-union-biden-hits-back-at-critics-as-he-warns-of-threats-to-democracy-at-home-and-overseas-224913">State of the Union: Biden hits back at critics as he warns of threats to democracy at home and overseas</a>
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<p>And while Trump outperformed Haley in most demographic groups throughout the primaries, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-18/south-carolina-suburban-women-see-haley-as-hope-for-republican-party">college-educated women</a> were the exception. As Trump and Biden compete for Haley’s voting bloc now, the place to find these voters may just be in the suburbs. And this is where <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/lbc/educational-attainment-rural?tid=1000">college-educated residents</a> now make up the largest share of the population.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581740/original/file-20240313-24-tastza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Both candidates could face difficulties in suburbia, though. Throughout the primaries, gaining support from suburban voters has been one of Trump’s key weaknesses. </p>
<p>Currently, Biden is doing slightly better with the key suburban demographic groups than Trump. Among college-educated adults, Biden has a <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/joe-biden-favorability?crossBreak=collegegrad">favorability rating</a> of 46.6%, while Trump only records a 39.7% <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=collegegrad">favorability rating</a> (where people rank their feelings towards a politician as positive or negative). </p>
<p>However, the president may not do as well in smaller suburban counties where the population is less likely to be college-educated. Current polling shows that <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=hsorless">Trump</a> does much better among people with education qualifications up to a high school diploma (56.7% favorability rating) than <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/joe-biden-favorability?crossBreak=hsorless">Biden</a> (36%). </p>
<h2>Trump’s suburban woman problem</h2>
<p>However, Trump has not been doing as well in the suburbs during the primaries as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/168f3c5a-4f70-49af-a406-7b5972b2ae50">pollsters</a> had predicted. This has raised questions about the accuracy of polls and potential biases or blind spots. </p>
<p>Moving populations and changing demographics are also a potential explanation. There are other issues at stake in 2024 that may cause shifts in electoral behaviour and which could mean these voters are not wiling to reveal their intentions to pollsters. </p>
<p>One example of this is the issue of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/abortion-republican-voters-presidential-election">abortion rights</a>. While some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/donald-trump-primary-wins.html#:%7E:text=His%20overwhelming%20primary%20victories%2C%20including,.%20Biden%20Jr.%20in%202020.">conservative voters</a> have disclosed that they were supportive of abortion rights and were therefore not voting for Trump, there may be a significant number of women, particularly in more conservative neighbourhoods and states, who may be hesitant to disclose such shifts in voting intentions. </p>
<p>Haley did well among suburban women, particularly those who had <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-18/south-carolina-suburban-women-see-haley-as-hope-for-republican-party">concerns</a> about Trump’s policies on family and health, wanted more focus on the economy and were not happy with the nastiness of the Trump campaign. </p>
<p>If the key to the White House is winning over Haley’s voters, as has been widely suggested since her exit from the race, this voting group may just be what Biden needs, a detail that has not gone unnoticed by his <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-courts-haley-supporters-after-exit-board/story?id=107846566">campaign</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Leicht does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are more college-educated people living in the US suburbs than there used to be, and this may be an important factor in how the vote splits.Caroline Leicht, PhD Candidate in Politics, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251532024-03-18T12:23:59Z2024-03-18T12:23:59ZBiden and Trump, though old, are both likely to survive to the end of the next president’s term, demographers explain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581396/original/file-20240312-16-ug5e1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4247%2C2965&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are nearly twice the median age of the U.S. population.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024ChinaUnitedStates/46152c599dd14340abc0595fca447682/photo">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3890">In a recent poll</a>, 67% of Americans surveyed believe that President Joe Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term as president. But only 41% of respondents said they feel that way about former President Donald Trump, who is 77. Both men have stumbled around and have forgotten or mixed up names and events, <a href="https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/memory-loss-and-forgetfulness/memory-problems-forgetfulness-and-aging">which are behaviors that characterize some older people</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jAfhO2YAAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OBIxsGQAAAAJ&hl=en">demographers</a> – not <a href="https://www.salon.com/2024/02/23/dr-john-gartner-on-a-tale-of-two-brains-bidens-brain-is-aging-brain-is-dementing/">scholars of brain function</a> considering people’s cognitive abilities. But there is a question we can answer, one that speaks to concerns about both men’s ages: their life expectancy.</p>
<p>And it turns out that the four-year age difference between Biden and Trump isn’t really much of a difference when it comes to their respective odds of surviving. The statistical odds are good that both would complete a four-year term as president.</p>
<p>We know this because of one of the most versatile <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/population-and-society/5D47EB8139ED72FD59F7379F7D41B4FB">tools of demography</a>, which is called a life table. It’s a table of age groups, usually from 0 to 100 years, showing the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=14">percentages of the population at any age</a> surviving to a later age. It is based on the age-specific death rates of the population.</p>
<h2>Early record-keeping</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table of figures representing births and deaths." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A bill of mortality for 1605 and 1606, by John Graunt, an early version of what is now known as a life table.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bill_of_Mortality_1606.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>The life table dates back to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Graunt">John Graunt, a self-educated citizen of London</a> in the 17th century who is known by many as the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/population-and-society/references/35C31BCEC27E2B0448B160414E1893BF">founder of demography</a>. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41138862">In 1662, Graunt produced and distributed the first life table</a>, showing the probabilities of London’s population surviving from one age to the next.</p>
<p>There are two kinds of life tables. The first is a cohort life table, which represents the death rates and ages for a specific group of people. A cohort table could, for example, document the deaths of all males born in the U.S. in 1940. That table would be very precise, but it wouldn’t be complete until every member of the group had died – so it’s not especially useful for examining the prospects of the living.</p>
<p>As a result, demographers more often use life tables for a current time period, such as the year 2021, which is the date of the most <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf">current period life table for the U.S.</a></p>
<p>It shows the probabilities of surviving from one age to another age based on the death rates in 2021. </p>
<h2>Statistical documentation</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf">A period life table for 2021</a> indicates that almost 99% of all people born in the U.S. survive from age 0 to age 20; just over 95% of them survive to age 40, and over 85% to age 60. More than 51% of them live to age 80.</p>
<p>But life tables get much more specific. It’s important to examine life tables’ data for each age, race and gender combination. This is because males don’t live as long as females, Black people don’t live as long as white people, and non-Hispanic people don’t live as long as Hispanic people. There are more specialized life tables that focus on education level and income, but they are not as current and complete as the broader tables.</p>
<p>Biden and Trump are both non-Hispanic white men. Biden is 81 and Trump is 77.</p>
<p>Based on the age-specific death rates of non-Hispanic white men in the U.S. in 2021, Biden has a 92.9% probability of surviving at least to age 82. Trump has a 95.1% probability of surviving to at least age 78. These odds are nearly identical, so each man is very likely to be alive on Inauguration Day 2025, regardless of which of them is being sworn in as president.</p>
<p>What about finishing out that four-year term? <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=47">Our calculations from the life tables</a> reveal that there is a 63.3% probability that Biden will survive another five years – to at least 86. And there is a 73.6% probability for Trump to survive that period – to at least age 82. Of course, it’s possible either or both will die, but their odds of death are much lower than their odds of survival.</p>
<p>In general, the chances are a bit more favorable for Trump, because he is slightly younger.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table of figures showing how many people of one age survive to a future age." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2021 life table for the U.S. is the most recent available.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=10">U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Precise calculations</h2>
<p>There are two factors that let us demographers get even more specific. </p>
<p>First, we measure age as exact years. Their age gap is not four years, but 3.5: <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/joseph-r-biden-jr">Biden was born on Nov. 20, 1942</a>, and <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/donald-j-trump">Trump on June 14, 1946</a>. That 10 percentage-point survival advantage for Trump over Biden was based on a four-year age difference. The real difference drops one or two points because they’re not quite so far apart in age.</p>
<p>Second, demographers have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2648114">people who attend church regularly live longer</a> than those who don’t. This is not because of some divine favor but because churchgoers tend to have more optimistic attitudes, clearer senses of purpose and more regular social interactions and connections. All of these factors extend people’s lives. Biden is a Catholic and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AC1X6/">attends Mass weekly, in general</a>. Trump was raised as a Presbyterian but now considers himself to be a “<a href="https://www.deseret.com/2023/10/22/23922731/biden-trump-faith-and-presidential-candidates/">nondenominational Christian</a>,” and he attends religious services very irregularly. So, Biden gets the survival advantage associated with churchgoing. </p>
<p>Other factors come into play with longevity as well, such as marital status, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10936-2">body mass index scores</a>, diets and levels of physical fitness and exercise. </p>
<h2>A comparison with the American people</h2>
<p>Biden and Trump are <a href="https://theconversation.com/candidates-aging-brains-are-factors-in-the-presidential-race-4-essential-reads-223419">two of the three oldest people</a> ever to serve as president. The population they are seeking to lead is also older than ever before.</p>
<p>The median age of the nation’s population was <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-estimates-characteristics.html">38.9 in 2022</a> compared with <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1972/dec/pc-s1-10.html">28.1 in 1970</a> and just <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2000/phc/phc-t-09/tab07.pdf">16.7 in 1820</a>. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/opinion/biden-aging-america-population.html">Relative to the age of the population</a>, President Biden is no older than the country’s first presidents,” including Thomas Jefferson, wrote James Chappel, a scholar of aging and history at Duke University, in The New York Times. More recently, Reagan was older than the median American of his time than Biden and Trump are today.</p>
<p>At their second inaugurations, Jefferson was roughly 45 years older than the median age of the U.S. population then, and Reagan 43 years older. If Biden wins a second term, he will be 42 years older than today’s median. If Trump wins in 2024, he will be 38 years older than the current median. </p>
<p>As demographers, we can say it is likely that both Biden and Trump will be alive when the presidential term that begins in 2025 comes to an end in 2029. But as the U.S. population gets older too, the age factor may become less important to voters. This is not an immediate change, however, but one that will likely occur over the next decade or so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Detailed data on the ages at which people die can give good indications of a person’s remaining life span.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityRogelio Sáenz, Professor of Demography, The University of Texas at San AntonioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255322024-03-15T18:07:15Z2024-03-15T18:07:15ZWhy Fani Willis was allowed to stay on as prosecutor of criminal case against Trump in Georgia – and what happens next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581365/original/file-20240312-24-duwdbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis listens to final arguments in her disqualification hearing on March 1, 2024, in Atlanta, Ga. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-district-attorney-fani-willis-arrives-for-the-news-photo/2043988459?adppopup=true">Alex Slitz/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">an unexpected decision</a>, a Georgia judge ruled that the <a href="https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/08/CRIMINAL-INDICTMENT-Trump-Fulton-County-GA.pdf">conspiracy to commit election intereference</a> case against Donald Trump and several associates <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fani-willis-trump-georgia-rcna139810">can continue</a> if Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis either steps aside from the case or fires her former boyfriend, whom she hired as special prosecutor. </p>
<p>Within hours of the decision, the special prosecutor, Nathan Wade, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/15/trump-georgia-election-case-can-proceed-if-da-or-prosecutor-removes-themselves.html">stepped down</a>. </p>
<p>The ruling by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/12/judge-scott-mcafee-trump-georgia-case-fani-willis/">Fulton County Superior Judge Scott McAfee</a> puts an end to a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/7272229e-032d-4bb2-aec2-afe99ba7ae22.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_4">January 2023 motion</a> to have Willis removed from the case for allegedly having <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24401519-willis-wade-response">a personal financial stake</a> in the case by “benefiting from her romantic relationship” with Wade through the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/19/fani-willis-travel-paid-nathan-wade-trump-georgia-case">lavish vacations</a> they took together. </p>
<p>Though <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fani-willis-nathan-wade-trump-indictment-493165c4614761d4b965923696134c09">Willis acknowledged</a> “a personal relationship,” she claimed their relationship started after <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/02/02/who-is-nathan-wade-trump-prosecutor-at-center-of-fani-willis-debacle/?sh=e8251b85a76b">Wade was hired</a> to prosecute Trump.</p>
<p>In his ruling, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/mar/15/biden-trump-election-campaign-supreme-court-latest-updates">McAfee wrote</a> that Willis showed a “<a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">tremendous lapse in judgment</a>” regardless of when the relationship began.</p>
<p>In the case against Trump, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-codefendants-guilty-pleas-georgia-criminal-case-2020-election/">four out of the 19</a> people charged have already pleaded guilty. Trump and the rest of the defendants have pleaded not guilty.</p>
<p>The Conversation asked criminal law scholar <a href="https://hls.harvard.edu/faculty/ronald-s-sullivan/">Ronald Sullivan</a> to make sense of the ruling that allows Willis to continue her prosecution of Trump.</p>
<h2>What just happened?</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A middle aged white man wearing a black robe listens to testimony." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee listens during a February 2024 hearing to determine whether two prosecutors should be disqualified from Donald Trump’s election interference case in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-superior-judge-scott-mcafee-looks-on-during-a-news-photo/2006230461?adppopup=true">Alyssa Pointer/Pool via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Judge McAfee entered a mixed ruling that caught most legal observers by surprise. He found that Trump’s defense team did not put forward sufficient evidence to show that Willis had an actual conflict of interest. </p>
<p>To the contrary, McAfee found that the value of Willis’ alleged benefit was less than $15,000 and did not support charges that Willis, who makes over $200,000 a year and was not experiencing any financial hardships, needed or relied on her relationship with Wade. </p>
<p>Though McAfee found <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">no actual conflict of interest</a>, he did find the appearance of a conflict. That means a reasonable person might believe that Willis’ actions as a prosecutor were compromised by her relationship with Wade. </p>
<p>On this basis, <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">McAfee ruled</a> that the existence of a romantic relationship presents an appearance of a conflict of interest. In order to cure this conflict, either Willis or Wade had to resign. </p>
<p>With Wade’s resignation, Willis will assign a different lawyer to the case. </p>
<h2>What would have happened if the judge ruled against Willis?</h2>
<p>Trump’s case <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-georgia-2020-election-case-what-if-fani-willis-disqualified/">would have been handed over</a> to a state entity called the <a href="https://pacga.org/">Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia</a>. The agency would then have appointed another Georgia district attorney’s office to take up the prosecution.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man dressed in a dark suit sits at a table with his hands held together." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special prosecutor Nathan Wade appears in court during his disqualification hearing on March 1, 2024, in Atlanta, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/special-prosecutor-nathan-wade-sits-in-court-during-a-news-photo/2043986656?adppopup=true">Alex Slitz/Pool via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In normal cases, Georgia lawyers report that this is a long and slow process. Given the magnitude of the Trump case, this process would have taken even longer. Significantly, the new prosecutor would not be bound by any decisions made by Willis’ office and could have even declined to prosecute the case altogether.</p>
<h2>What’s the takeaway from the judge’s decision against Willis?</h2>
<p>The judge essentially split the baby. By finding there is no actual conflict of interest, Willis is permitted to stay in the case. But Wade was forced to quit because of the appearance of a conflict.</p>
<p><iframe id="tYrfU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tYrfU/12/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The judge landed a few judicial jabs regarding Willis’ behavior that the Trump team will use to undermine the public’s faith in the district attorney’s office.</p>
<p>In a line that the Trump team surely will repeat, the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24401519-willis-wade-response">judge wrote</a> that an “odor of mendacity” exists with respect to Willis and the prosecution’s witnesses.</p>
<h2>Where does the ruling leave Willis?</h2>
<p>Prosecutors’ offices trade on the trust that juries give to the office. If that trust is eroded, the impact is often felt in “not guilty” trial verdicts when juries don’t trust what prosecutors say. Although Willis dodged a bullet by being able to stay in the case, she will have to manage the harm to her reputation. </p>
<h2>What is the status of Trump’s case?</h2>
<p>The case will proceed as before. Willis will likely appoint a senior attorney from within her office to lead the case, and that lawyer will pick up where Wade left the case.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated March 15, 2024, to reflect Nathan Wade’s resignation.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225532/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronald S. Sullivan Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though a Georgia judge strongly criticized the decision-making of Fani Willis, he did not kick her off the case against Donald Trump and his efforts to overthrow the 2020 presidential election.Ronald S. Sullivan Jr., Professor of Law, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254922024-03-15T12:12:13Z2024-03-15T12:12:13ZTrump wouldn’t be the first presidential candidate to campaign from a prison cell<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580950/original/file-20240311-16-kra9cy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3949%2C2877&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eugene Debs, center, imprisoned at the Atlanta Federal Prison, was notified of his nomination for the presidency on the socialist ticket by a delegation of leading socialists who came from New York to Atlanta.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/for-the-first-time-in-history-a-candidate-for-president-has-news-photo/530858130?adppopup=true">George Rinhart/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first trial ever of a former president, the so-called “hush money” case against former president and likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, is scheduled to begin with jury selection in New York <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-hush-money-new-york-criminal-case-fbdff18df40920b75873b3a40317f5ee">on March 25, 2024</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/nyregion/alvin-bragg-trump-trial-delay.html">though that may be delayed</a> by a month. Trump faces <a href="https://manhattanda.org/district-attorney-bragg-announces-34-count-felony-indictment-of-former-president-donald-j-trump/">34 felony charges</a> related to alleged crimes involving bookkeeping on a payment to an adult film actress <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/04/nyregion/trump-indictment-annotated.html">during the 2016 presidential campaign</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is unlikely to wind up in an orange jumpsuit, at least not on this indictment, and probably not before November 2024, in any case. Yet if he does, he would not be the first candidate to run for the White House from the Big House. </p>
<p>In the election of 1920, Eugene V. Debs, the Socialist Party presidential candidate, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">polled nearly a million votes</a> without ever hitting the campaign trail. </p>
<p>Debs was behind bars in the federal penitentiary in Atlanta, serving a <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/fiery-socialist-challenged-nations-role-wwi-180969386/">10-year sentence for sedition</a>. It was a not a bum rap. Debs had defiantly disobeyed a law he deemed unjust, <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1239/sedition-act-of-1918">the Sedition Act of 1918</a>. </p>
<p>The act was an anti-free speech measure passed <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/historic-document-library/detail/espionage-act-of-1917-and-sedition-act-of-1918-1917-1918">at the behest of President Woodrow Wilson</a>. The law made it <a href="https://govtrackus.s3.amazonaws.com/legislink/pdf/stat/40/STATUTE-40-Pg553.pdf">illegal for a U.S. citizen</a> to “willfully utter, print, write, or publish any disloyal, profane, scurrilous, or abusive language about the United States government” or to discourage compliance with the draft or voluntary enlistment into the military.</p>
<p>By the time he was imprisoned for sedition, Eugene Victor Debs had enjoyed a lifetime of running afoul of government authority. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">Born in 1855</a> into bourgeois comfort in Terre Haute, Indiana, he worked as a clerk and a grocer before joining the Brotherhood of Locomotive Firemen in 1875 and finding his vocation as an <a href="https://debsfoundation.org/index.php/landing/debs-biography/">advocate for labor</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A balding man's profile illustrating an old newspaper article headlined 'There will be work for all and wealth for all willing to work for it.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520533/original/file-20230412-18-1i8t9k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eugene Debs ran for president five times, including in 1904, when he wrote this column for The Spokane Press.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn88085947/1904-10-26/ed-1/seq-3/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Representing American socialism</h2>
<p>For the next 30 years, Debs was the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/02/18/eugene-v-debs-and-the-endurance-of-socialism">face of socialism in America</a>. He <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">ran for president four times</a>, in 1900, 1904, 1908 and 1912, garnering around a million votes in the last cycle.</p>
<p>“The Republican, Democratic, and Progressive Parties are but branches of the same capitalistic tree,” <a href="https://ehistory.osu.edu/exhibitions/1912/content/SocialistParty">he told a cheering mass of people</a> in Madison Square Garden in New York during the 1912 campaign. “They all stand for wage slavery.” </p>
<p>In 1916, he opted to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugene-V-Debs">seek a seat in Congress</a> and deferred to socialist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Allan-L-Benson">journalist Allan L. Benson</a> to head the party’s ticket. Both lost.</p>
<p>In April 1917, when America joined World War I’s bloodbath in Europe, Debs became a fierce opponent of American involvement in what he saw as a death cult orchestrated by rapacious munitions manufacturers. On May 21, 1918, wary of a small but energized and eloquent anti-war movement, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jsch.12219">Wilson signed the Sedition Act into law</a>. </p>
<p>Debs would not be muzzled. On June 18, 1918, in an address in Canton, Ohio, <a href="https://newspapers.library.in.gov/cgi-bin/indiana?a=d&d=RPD19180701.1.11&srpos=2&e=01-07-1918-01-07-1918--en-20--1--txt-txIN-%22Eugene+V.+Debs%22------">he declared that</a> American boys were “fit for something better than for cannon fodder.” </p>
<p>In short order, he was arrested and convicted of violating the Sedition Act. At his sentencing, he told the judge he would not retract a word of his speech even if it meant he would spend the rest of his life behind bars. “I ask for no mercy, <a href="https://www.cantondailyledger.com/story/opinion/columns/2018/07/02/eugene-debs-recalled-as-free/11615035007/">plead for no immunity</a>,” he declared. After a brief stint in the West Virginia Federal Penitentiary, he was sent to serve out his sentence at the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A vintage newspaper clipping with the headline 'Socialists Declare Old Parties Are Crumbling.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1103&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1103&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1103&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520552/original/file-20230412-22-mce10q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Last-minute preelection campaigning on Eugene Debs’ behalf by the Socialist Party is described in the New York Tribune of Oct. 27, 1920.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/sn83030214/1920-10-27/ed-1/?sp=2&q=Socialist+Party+1920&st=image&r=0.205,-0.077,0.823,0.351,0">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Imprisonment only enhanced Debs’ status with his followers. On May 13, 1920, at its national convention in New York, the Socialist Party unanimously nominated “Convict 2253” as its standard-bearer for the presidency. Debs was later given new digits, so the campaign buttons read “For President, Convict No. 9653.”</p>
<p>As Debs’ name was entered into nomination, a wave of emotion swept over the delegates, who cheered for 30 minutes before bursting into a rousing chorus of the “Internationale,” <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1920/05/14/96891587.html?pageNumber=3">the communist anthem</a>. </p>
<h2>A ‘front cell’ campaign</h2>
<p>Debs’ opponents both were better funded and enjoyed freedom of movement: They were <a href="https://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/election1920.html">Warren G. Harding, the GOP junior senator from Ohio, and James M. Cox</a>, governor of Ohio, for the Democrats. </p>
<p>Yet Debs did not let incarceration keep his message from the voters. In a wry response to <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/harding/campaigns-and-elections">Harding’s “front porch” campaign</a> style, in which the Republican candidate received visits from the front porch of his home in Marion, Ohio, the Socialist Party announced that its candidate would conduct <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1920/07/11/issue.html">a “front cell” campaign</a> from Atlanta. </p>
<p>In 1920, broadcast radio was not a factor in electioneering, but another electronic medium was just beginning to be exploited for political messaging. On May 29, 1920, in a carefully choreographed event, newsreel cameras filmed a delegation from the Socialist Party arriving at the Atlanta penitentiary to inform Debs officially of his nomination. The intertitles of the silent screen described “the most unusual scene in the political history of America – Debs, serving a ten-year term for ‘seditious activities,’ accepts Socialist nomination for Presidency.” </p>
<p>After accepting “a floral tribute from Socialist women voters,” the “Moving Picture Weekly” reported, the denim-clad <a href="https://ia801302.us.archive.org/BookReader/BookReaderImages.php?id=movingpicturewe1014movi_1&itemPath=%2F0%2Fitems%2Fmovingpicturewe1014movi_1&server=ia801302.us.archive.org&page=leaf000474">Debs was shown giving</a> “a final affectionate farewell” before heading “back to the prison cell for nine years longer.” </p>
<p>At motion picture theaters across the nation, audiences watched the staged ritual and, depending on their party registration, reacted with cheers or hisses. </p>
<p>The New York Times was aghast that a felon might canvass for votes from the motion picture screen. </p>
<p>“Under the influence of this unreasoning mob psychology, the acknowledged criminal is nightly applauded as loudly as many of the candidates for the Presidency who have won their honorable eminence by great and unflagging service to the American people,” <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1920/06/12/98297951.html?pageNumber=14">read an editorial from June 12, 1920</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A vintage telegram regarding President Harding's commutation of Eugene Debs' sentence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520537/original/file-20230412-16-nukmwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One year after the election of 1920, President Warren Harding commuted Eugene Debs’ sentence, and he was released from prison on Christmas Day, 1921.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/item/2002697246/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Public opinion turns</h2>
<p>On Nov. 2, 1920, when <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1920">the election results came in</a>, Harding had trounced his Democratic opponent by a record electoral majority, 404 electoral votes to Cox’s 127, with 60.4% of the popular vote to Cox’s 34.1%. Debs was a distant third, but he had won 3.4% of the electorate – 913,693 votes. Debs’ personal-best showing was in the presidential election of 1912, with 6% of the vote. To be fair, that was when he was more mobile.</p>
<p>Even with the Great War over and the Sedition Act repealed by a repentant Congress on Dec. 13, 1920, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1921/02/01/archives/wilson-refuses-to-pardon-debs-rejects-palmers-recommendation-to.html">Wilson, during his final months in office, steadfastly refused</a> to grant Debs a pardon. But public opinion had turned emphatically in favor of the convict-candidate. Harding, who took office in March 1921, finally <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/01/06/warren-harding-eugene-debs/">commuted his sentence</a>, effective on Christmas Day, 1921, along with those of 23 other Great War prisoners of conscience convicted under the Sedition Act.</p>
<p>As Debs exited the prison gates, his <a href="https://www.newspapers.com/image/471549359/?terms=%22Debs%22%20%22cameras%22%20&match=1">fellow inmates cheered</a>. He raised his hat in one hand, his cane in the other, and waved back at them. Outside, the newsreel cameras were waiting to greet him.</p>
<p>It was the kind of photo op that Donald Trump might relish.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of a story that was originally published on April 18, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Doherty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can you run for president from a prison cell? One man did in the 1920 election and got almost a million votes.Thomas Doherty, Professor of American Studies, Brandeis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240352024-03-15T12:11:53Z2024-03-15T12:11:53ZDid Biden really steal the election? Students learn how to debunk conspiracy theories in this course<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582032/original/file-20240314-24-in072o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump supporters attend an election fraud rally in December 2020 in Washington, D.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trump-supporter-and-qanon-follower-jake-the-q-shaman-angeli-news-photo/1297805096?adppopup=true">Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of course:</h2>
<p>Debunking conspiracy theories </p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>I am interested in how people internalize or learn about political beliefs they go on to adopt. This interest coincided with my concerns about the seeming ease with which some far-right conservatives and supporters of former President Donald Trump peddled patently bogus conspiracies about <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-2020-election-lies-debunked-4fc26546b07962fdbf9d66e739fbb50d">election fraud in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>One of the outcomes of these schemes was Trump supporters’ attack on the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/01/trump-indictment-jan-6-2020-election/">U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021</a>. Sadly, the belief that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent, even in the face of overwhelming <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-fact-check-on-jan-6-anniversary-trump-sticks-to-election-falsehoods">evidence to the contrary</a>, has remained one core element of the Trump 2024 campaign. I remembered the work of historian Richard Hofstadter, who coined the term <a href="https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/">the “paranoid style” in politics</a> in a Harper’s Magazine essay in 1964. His main idea was that some politicians were using fear and a paranoid style of thinking to sway voters. They refused to accept the current state of society and wanted to make it appear that there was a looming threat to the country. </p>
<p>Hofstadter’s work was prompted by the actions of an extreme right-wing movement called the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/11/a-view-from-the-fringe">John Birch Society</a>. I had a feeling of déjà vu with Trump. </p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white leaflet says 'Does history repeat itself' and shows a photo of John F Kennedy. It has text comparing the deaths of Kennedy and Abraham Lincoln." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1268&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1268&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1268&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582034/original/file-20240314-30-8vw3ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1970 conspiracy theory handout lists the similarities with the killing of John F. Kennedy and the assassination of Abraham Lincoln.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/conspiracy-theory-handout-with-image-of-john-f-kennedy-news-photo/599828533?adppopup=true">Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s the real truth about the moon landing? Who <a href="https://time.com/6338396/jfk-assassination-conspiracy-culture/">really killed JFK?</a> These are just some of the questions we explore in this course. My goal is to balance the serious with the absurd. </p>
<p>I want students to identify the root causes of the conspiracy, use vetted sources and learn to be good consumers of online information.</p>
<p>I also want to train students in the practice of critical analysis. The American Psychological Association has shown that people who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000392">practice conspiratorial thinking are more likely</a> to seek simple solutions to complex problems and experience feelings of fear and isolation. </p>
<p>We begin the course examining what we can learn from both political science and psychology. We look at the long history of hoaxes, frauds and deliberate conspiracies in American history, stretching back to the Illuminati, <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2015/catholics-and-conspiracies">anti-Catholicism</a> <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/report/antisemitic-attitudes-america-conspiracy-theories-holocaust-education-and-other">and antisemitism</a>. </p>
<p>What is old is new again. The idea that a mysterious group <a href="https://theweek.com/62399/what-is-the-illuminati-and-what-does-it-control">like the Illuminati</a> is secretly in control of the world has not gone away. False beliefs about various groups such as Catholics and Jews are, sadly, recycled again and again.</p>
<p>The course also covers the current <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/01/1228373511/heres-why-conspiracy-theories-about-taylor-swift-and-the-super-bowl-are-spreadin">conspiracy theories about Taylor Swift</a>. This includes the false belief that the outcome of the February 2024 Super Bowl was predetermined so that the Kansas City Chiefs would win, and Swift, the girlfriend of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, would announce her support for President Joe Biden. </p>
<p>My course also explores much more serious threats, like QAnon – a dangerous movement that falsely believes secret government operatives are running child sex rings. </p>
<p>We also take a look at topics like UFOs, aliens, Bigfoot and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-loch-ness-monster-real-197338">Loch Ness monster</a>.</p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>In the current age of <a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-and-democrats-consider-each-other-immoral-even-when-treated-fairly-and-kindly-by-the-opposition-220002">political polarization</a>, it is critical that I do all I can to equip future leaders and citizens with the tools they need to suss out fact from distraction and outright fiction. </p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>My hope is that my students leave the course with the confidence that they need to not only recognize but to openly combat disinformation. We live in an age of oversaturation of information. My students are digital natives. They rarely receive information from traditional media outlets like newspapers. When one considers the wealth of disinformation on the internet, or the prospect <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/">that TikTok is their primary source of news,</a> it is critical that students are educated about how to evaluate information.</p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>I use a <a href="https://adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/">number of resources</a> in this class, including <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/true-story-brainwashing-and-how-it-shaped-america-180963400/">magazine articles</a>, academic papers, books <a href="https://www.callingbullshit.org/tools.html">and websites</a> that give people tools to recognize false information. </p>
<p>Our reading list includes the books “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520276826/a-culture-of-conspiracy">A Culture of Conspiracy:</a> Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America,” “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/yale-scholarship-online/book/17546">Enemies Within: The Culture of Conspiracy in Modern America</a>” and “<a href="https://www.burnsiderarebooks.com/pages/books/140941664/richard-hofstadter/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics-and-other-essays">The Paranoid Style in American Politics and other essays”</a>.</p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>My students will feel some discomfort at times confronting their own biases and preconceived notions.</p>
<p>The idea is that my course will prepare students to question and then determine the veracity of patently false information. My students will also be prepared to recognize that most conspiracies are born from conditions of stress and the fear of the other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224035/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cason does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar of history of education and American politics explains what is behind his course on conspiracy theories and how students learn to debunk fake ideas.David Cason, Associate Professor in Honors, University of North DakotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222152024-03-14T12:44:55Z2024-03-14T12:44:55ZTrump nearly derailed democracy once − here’s what to watch out for in reelection campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580558/original/file-20240307-22-g07jxw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C6390%2C4780&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'We did win this election,' said then-President Donald Trump at the White House early on Nov. 4, 2020, on what was still election night.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-november-04-2020-news-photo/1229450800?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elections are the bedrock of democracy, essential for choosing representatives and holding them accountable. </p>
<p>The U.S. is a flawed democracy. The Electoral College and the Senate make voters in less populous states far more influential than those in the more populous: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/how-fair-is-the-electoral-college/">Wyoming residents have almost four times the voting power of Californians</a>. </p>
<p>Ever since the Civil War, however, reforms have sought to remedy other flaws, ensuring that citizenship’s full benefits, including the right to vote, were provided to formerly enslaved people, women and Native Americans; establishing the <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/369/186/">constitutional standard of one person, one vote</a>; and eliminating barriers to voting through the 1965 <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43626/15">Voting Rights Act</a>. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court has, in recent years, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96">narrowly construed the Voting Rights Act</a> and <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">limited courts’ ability to redress gerrymandering</a>, the drawing of voting districts to ensure one party wins. </p>
<p>The 2020 election revealed even more disturbing threats to democracy. As I explain in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/How-Autocrats-Seek-Power-Resistance-to-Trump-and-Trumpism/Abel/p/book/9781032625843">my book</a>, “How Autocrats Seek Power,” Donald Trump lost his reelection bid in 2020 but refused to accept the results. He tried every trick in the book – and then some – to alter the outcome of this bedrock exercise in democracy.</p>
<p>A recent New York Times story reports that when it comes to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/us/politics/trump-presidency-election-voters.html">Trump’s time in office and his attempt to overturn the 2020 election</a>, “voters often have a hazy recall of one of the most tumultuous periods in modern politics.” This, then, is a refresher about Trump’s handling of the election, both before and after Nov. 3, 2020.</p>
<p>Trump began with a classic autocrat’s strategy – casting doubt on elections in advance to lay the groundwork for challenging an unfavorable outcome.</p>
<p>Despite his efforts, Trump was unable to control or change the election results. And that was because of the work of others to stop him.</p>
<p>Here are four things Trump tried to do to flip the election in his favor – and examples of how he was stopped, both by individuals and democratic institutions.</p>
<p><strong>Anticipating defeat</strong> </p>
<p>Expecting to lose in November 2020, in part because of his disastrous handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, <a href="https://time.com/5514115/trump-rampant-voter-fraud-texas/">Trump proclaimed that</a> “all over the country, especially in California, voter fraud is rampant.” He called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/politics/trump-michigan-vote-by-mail.html">mail ballots “a very dangerous thing</a>.” Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and aide, declined to “commit one way or the other” about whether the election would be held in November, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/jared-kushner-election-delay-coronavirus/">because of the COVID pandemic</a>. No efforts to postpone the election ensued.</p>
<p>Trump warned that Russia and China would “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/us/politics/mail-in-voting-foreign-intervention.html">be able to forge ballots</a>,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/26/trumps-corruption-election-just-took-hit-theres-still-problem/">a myth echoed by Attorney General William Barr</a>. Trump illegally threatened to have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/trump-election-day-sheriffs/index.html">law enforcement officers at polling places</a>. He falsely asserted that Kamala Harris “doesn’t meet the requirements” for serving as vice president <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/trump-2020-election.html?searchResultPosition=3">because her parents were immigrants</a>. Asked if he would agree to a transition if he lost, he responded: “There won’t be a transfer, frankly. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/politics/trump-power-transfer-2020-election.html">There’ll be a continuation</a>.” </p>
<p><strong>Threatening litigation</strong></p>
<p>Aware that polls showed Biden ahead by 8 percentage points, Trump declared, “As soon as that election is over, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/02/trump-lawyers-election-biden-pennsylvania/">we’re going in with our lawyers</a>,” and they did just that. Adviser Steve Bannon correctly predicted that on Election Night, “Trump’s gonna walk into the Oval (Office), tweet out, ‘I’m the winner. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/14/steve-bannon-leaked-audio-trump-jan-6-investigation/">Game over, suck on that</a>.’” </p>
<p>Trump followed the script, asserting at 2:30 am: “we did win this election. … <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/13/book-excerpt-i-alone-can-fix-it/">This is a major fraud in our nation</a>,” though the actual results weren’t clear until days later, when, on Nov. 7, the networks declared Biden had won.</p>
<p>Although many advisers said he had lost, Trump kept claiming fraud, repeating Rudy Giuliani’s false allegation that Dominion election machines had switched votes – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/trump-jan-6-criminal-case.html;%20https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/us/politics/trump-meadows-republicans-congress-jan-6.html;%20https://apnews.com/article/fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trial-trump-2020-0ac71f75acfacc52ea80b3e747fb0afe">a lie for which Fox News agreed to pay $787 million</a> to settle the defamation case brought by Dominion.</p>
<p><strong>Taking direct action</strong></p>
<p>Trump allies pressured state legislators to create false, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/06/fake-trump-electors-ga-told-shroud-plans-secrecy-email-shows/">“alternative” slates of electors</a> as a key strategy for overturning the election. Trump contemplated declaring an emergency, ordering the military to seize voting machines and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">replacing the attorney general with a yes-man</a> who would pressure state legislatures to change their electoral votes. </p>
<p><strong>Encouraging violence</strong></p>
<p>Trump summoned supporters to protest the Jan. 6 certification by Congress, boasted it would be “wild,” and encouraged them to march on the Capitol and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/11/14/million-maga-march-dc-protests/">“fight like hell,” promising to accompany them</a>. Once they had attacked the Capitol, he delayed for four hours before asking them to stop.</p>
<p>Yet Trump’s efforts to overturn the election failed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people with someone holding a sign that says 'Trump won the legal vote!'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of Trump supporters, fueled by his spurious claims of voter fraud, flooded the nation’s capital on Jan. 6, 2021, protesting Congress’ expected certification of Joe Biden’s White House victory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/crowds-of-people-gather-as-us-president-donald-trump-speaks-news-photo/1230451810?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Resisting Trump</h2>
<p>Trump claimed that voting by mail produced rampant fraud, but state legislatures let <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-election-2020-campaign-2016-f6b627a5576014a55a7252e542e46508">voters vote by mail or in drop boxes</a> because of the pandemic. Postal Service workers delivered those ballots despite actions taken by Trump’s postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, that made processing and delivery more difficult.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-election-2020-ap-top-news-politics-us-news-dc647214b5fc91cc29e776d8f4a4accf">DeJoy denied any sabotage</a> in testimony before Congress. </p>
<p>Most state election officials, regardless of party, loyally did their jobs, resisting Trump’s pressure to falsify the outcome. Courts rejected all but one of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">Trump’s 62 lawsuits aimed at overturning the election</a>. Government lawyers refused to invoke the Insurrection Act and authorize the military to seize voting machines. The <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/12/19/trump-reportedly-asked-advisors-about-deploying-military-to-overturn-election/?sh=486535eece2b">military remained scrupulously apolitical</a>. And Vice President Mike Pence presided over the certification, in which 43 Republican senators and 75 Republican representatives joined all the Democrats to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">declare Biden the winner</a>.</p>
<p>That experience contains invaluable lessons about what to expect in 2024 and how to defend the integrity of elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard L. Abel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. But the work of others, from lawmakers to judges to regular citizens, stopped him. There are cautionary lessons in that for the 2024 election.Richard L. Abel, Michael J. Connell Distinguished Professor of Law Emeritus, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257352024-03-13T18:03:30Z2024-03-13T18:03:30ZJudge nixes some of Georgia’s charges against Trump and his allies − but that won’t necessarily derail the case<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581713/original/file-20240313-16-atpi0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C21%2C4804%2C3210&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump continues to face criminal charges in Georgia, even though some have been dismissed by a judge.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024TrumpInsurrectionAmendment/d86f97b40fdc4d09ba8a4815b47d50f7/photo">AP Photo/Steve Helber</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A Fulton County judge <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24478988/trump_specialdemurrers_31324.pdf">has tossed out six of the 41 state charges</a> against Donald Trump and his allies in Georgia’s expansive election interference case against the former president and others.</em></p>
<p><em>Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee issued a ruling on March 13, 2024, that focused on charges related to allegations that Trump and other defendants tried to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/donald-trump-charges-quashed-georgia-mcafee.html">get state officials to break the law</a> and decertify the 2020 election results.</em></p>
<p><em>The ruling doesn’t mean that the entire case is derailed, explains Georgia election and legal scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AI_UyLUAAAAJ&hl=en">Anthony Michael Kreis</a>. It’s a focused and technical ruling that says Georgia District Attorney Fani T. Willis has not specified which exact law the defendants are allegedly violating in some instances.</em> </p>
<p><em>It also doesn’t have anything to do with the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/13/fani-willis-disqualification-impact-trump-georgia-case/">defense effort to disqualify Willis</a> from the Trump case because of her romantic relationship with another prosecutor. An Atlanta-area judge is expected to soon rule on this issue.</em> </p>
<p><em>Politics and society editor Amy Lieberman spoke with Kreis to better understand what’s behind this ruling and its implications for Georgia’s case against Trump and his allies.</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a black robe sits behind a desk, flanked by the U.S. flag and the Georgia state flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee has been hearing motions in the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference in the wake of the 2020 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/judge-scott-mcafee-presides-during-a-hearing-in-the-case-of-news-photo/2001155374">Alyssa Pointer-Pool/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>What just happened with this ruling?</strong></p>
<p>Essentially what we have here is a response to a legal motion on behalf of a number of defendants, including Trump. In that motion, Trump and his co-defendants say that the state did not give enough detailed particulars about the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-state-georgia-appears-set-file-charges-against-donald-trump-court-document-2023-08-14/">crimes that the defendants have been charged</a> with and thus should be thrown out. </p>
<p>The set of charges revolve around the concept of a violation of an oath. That sprang up as a result of Trump’s <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/highlights-of-trump-s-call-with-the-georgia-secretary-of-state-1/b67c0d9dbde1a697/full.pdf">phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger</a>, with Trump asking him to “find” 11,780 votes that would have given Trump a win in Georgia. The charges also related to some of the defendants’ testimony before the state General Assembly, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-giuliani-georgia-election-indictment-fulton-county-203b1e69cbff227a0bf8cc59a6bb645f">asking the Georgia Legislature to overturn</a> the election and appoint their own electors. </p>
<p>The charges were based on a theory that these defendants unlawfully asked state officials to violate their oath and their duty to the constitutions of the United States and the state of Georgia. What wasn’t clear is what provisions they allegedly tried to induce state officials to violate. </p>
<p>In his ruling, the judge is saying that the state needs to go back to the grand jury and provide details of exactly what aspects of the Constitution these defendants allegedly tried to get state officials to violate, so the defendants have the ability to defend against these charges. </p>
<p><strong>Is the judge saying there is not enough evidence to proceed with this case?</strong></p>
<p>No. He’s saying that the state has not sufficiently explained how the evidence relates to an oath. For example, we know <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-giuliani-georgia-election-indictment-fulton-county-203b1e69cbff227a0bf8cc59a6bb645f">Rudy Giuliani went to the Georgia General Assembly</a> with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-john-eastmans-2020-election-charges">John Eastman and provided false information</a> in order to encourage these state officials to overturn the election. The theory is that violated both the federal and state constitutions. </p>
<p>But a prosecutor could make that claim in a number of different ways. Did they violate the Georgia Constitution’s right to vote; did they violate the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/equal_protection">equal protection clause</a> in the U.S. Constitution? Is it the right to vote that is spelled out in <a href="https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/state_constitution.pdf">Georgia’s state Constitution</a>? Or is there some other provision of federal or state law they violated? It’s just not clear. </p>
<p>The evidence supporting the charges is there. What is not there is the precise theory of the crime and the exact elements that support those indictments. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close-up of a man in a suit and tie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a key figure in the case against former President Donald Trump and his alleged efforts to influence the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brad-raffensperger-georgias-secretary-of-state-attends-the-news-photo/2028789353">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Did this decision surprise you?</strong></p>
<p>No. This charge is kind of a unique charge. It is not something that people have really heard of in this context, particularly when it comes to state legislators and presidential electors. We are in an area of legal theory that is unique and without precedent. The judge is saying because we are in this new sphere of legal theory, the state really needs to be specific about what it is they are trying to prove here and what the nature of the criminality is. </p>
<p>The charge of violating an oath is just not something we see in the state of Georgia. <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4152370-read-trump-indictment-georgia/">The charges have been drafted</a> in a very novel way, but they are responding to an unprecedented situation. We are in this kind of wild west of making law. And that is not necessarily a bad thing, but what it does require is a little greater attention to specifics. And the prosecutors have just not done that yet.</p>
<p><strong>Could this delay the trial against Trump and his allies in Georgia?</strong></p>
<p>Maybe. We will have to see. Willis can bring a new, more detailed indictment that is more in line with the state oath. I think if Willis brings another indictment on these charges, there probably won’t be a delay. </p>
<p>If she appeals this decision, rather than just seeking a new indictment, that might slow things down a little. </p>
<p><strong>Is this a sign that the case is being derailed?</strong> </p>
<p>No. The entire indictment, except the violation of oaths of office, still stands. This makes work for the district attorney but is not a fatal detail. Willis can go back to constitutional law experts in her working group and hone in on the theory of a constitutional violation. And she will have another bite at the apple.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Michael Kreis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Georgia election law scholar explains what’s behind the ruling and what it means for the state’s prosecution of Trump.Anthony Michael Kreis, Assistant Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249122024-03-13T12:28:23Z2024-03-13T12:28:23ZWhy Biden is investing in influencers to help with this year’s election<p>Move over Taylor Swift. You’re not the only one with crowds of worshipping fans who can <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-maher-taylor-swift-biden-trump-presidential-election-super-bowl-2024-2">tip the 2024 election</a>. </p>
<p>Mega-celebrities like singers, athletes and Hollywood stars get the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jleo/article-abstract/29/2/355/914869">bulk of the attention</a> when it comes to their coveted political endorsements. But this year, it’s the online influencers who candidates, including President Joe Biden, are increasingly looking to court. </p>
<p>Social media personalities on platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram boast hundreds of thousands, and sometimes millions, of followers. These content creators <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8872418/">bankroll their curated lifestyles</a> by marketing everything from lipstick to watches. </p>
<p>The appeal of these influencers in the political sphere is obvious. Many have built up <a href="http://www.promotionalcommunications.org/index.php/pc/article/view/136">vast, admiring audiences</a>. They’ve developed close, intimate relationships that can be leveraged. Their word means something to their followers, whether that’s promoting a L'Oreal eyeliner, or a presidential ticket. </p>
<p>If <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/04/youre-about-spend-so-much-money-instagram/588373/#:%7E:text=The%20platform%20is%20allowing%20influencers,users%20directly%20through%20their%20posts.&text=Ever%20since%20Instagram%20first%20allowed,are%20getting%20their%20product%20recommendations.">“Instagram is the new mall”</a>, it might soon also be the new epicentre of political campaigning, particularly because influencers have a lot of credibility with young people. And, Biden needs young voters to turn out for him, particularly as polling suggests that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/">young Republicans</a> may be more enthusiastic about Trump than young Democrats about Biden. </p>
<p>Biden recently <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7fb6177c-30b7-4f30-b7ac-de89398ea350">rolled out the red carpet</a> at the White House for hundreds of influencers including actor Kalen Allen and artist Devon Rodriguez, hoping to persuade them to join his cadre of digital assets. Rodriguez has 9 million Instagram followers and Allen 2 million. Trump, too, has been cosy with conservative influencers <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-hosts-conservative-influencers-libs-tik-tok-babylon-bee-dinner-rcna67396">such as the head of “Libs of Tik Tok”</a> and Seth Dillon of Babylon Bee, a Christian news satire website.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee has constructed an online organising hub that reporter Makena Kelly <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/9/23298040/dnc-democrats-midterms-elections-tiktok-instagram-influencers">has described as</a> a “destination for influencers, surrogates, and supporters to receive party-sponsored talking points, messaging, and a wide variety of digital content to post on their own social media feeds”.</p>
<p>There are reports that the influential <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/01/biden-campaign-social-media-influencers-00136389">Democrat political action committee (Pac) Priorities USA</a> is paying US$1 million (£782,000) to around 150 influencers to encourage the publishing of pro-Biden posts. Pacs raise money for candidates independent of official campaigns and then spend cash to bolster their preferred candidates. </p>
<p>The rise of influencers in American politics marks the latest evolution in a stream of technological innovations adapted by candidates, from Barack Obama’s early embrace of the internet <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/nov/07/barackobama-uselections2008">and Facebook</a> in 2008 to Trump’s unvarished, shoot-from-the-hip <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-twitter-use-campaign-2016.html">communication on Twitter</a> in 2016.</p>
<p>Influencers, however, largely promise to be more subtle, more discreet, and more subliminal than conventional actors involved in electioneering. In fact, trend forecasters have suggested that not being in-your-face and overtly partisan can be the key to perceived <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2021/aug/12/being-too-aspirational-is-repellent-now-the-rise-of-the-genuinfluencers">“genuineness”</a>. </p>
<p>A Biden-Harris bumper sticker that “just happens” to find its way into the backdrop of a YouTube clip touting the health benefits of kale smoothies. An “off the cuff” reference to Trump’s plans to strip abortion rights amid a product review for the latest Chanel handbag. It’s not just about parroting back formal campaign slogans. </p>
<h2>Issues with influencers</h2>
<p>The use of influencers in politics raises big legal, ethical and policy quandaries. </p>
<p>Influencers are generally <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/plain-language/1001a-influencer-guide-508_1.pdf">required</a> by the US Federal Trade Commission to disclose any sponsorships and financial gain from sales. Yet the legal landscape surrounding political influencers is still inchoate, and many critics say that politicians and Pacs exploit influencers to circumvent campaign finance laws. </p>
<p>The US Federal Election Commission has <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/3881167-will-the-fec-finally-rein-in-political-influencers-on-social-media/">failed to offer regulatory clarity</a> regarding the rules that apply to influencers in campaigns. Additionally, while some social media companies like Facebook actually <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-socialmedia-sponsored/from-facebook-to-tiktok-u-s-political-influencers-are-paid-for-posts-idUSKBN27E1T9/">paused political ads</a> in the days immediately preceding the 2020 election, influencers were left untouched. </p>
<p>The possible problems don’t stop there. </p>
<p>Communications researchers Katie Joseff and Samuel C. Woolley, for example, have <a href="https://mediaengagement.org/research/social-media-influencers-and-the-2020-election/">argued</a> that the hiring of influencers in politics “amounts to a new and growing form of ‘inorganic’ information operations — elite-dictated propaganda through trusted social media spokespersons”.</p>
<p>Even worse, they say, top-down “propaganda from influencers are better able to evade detection systems built to detect political bots and sockpuppets and to defy regulators concerned with digital free speech”. </p>
<p>There’s <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.2.211">no shortage of consternation</a> about foreign nations and organisations, especially the Kremlin, wielding disinformation to meddle in US elections. While domestic influencers may not have nefarious aims, social media followers may be impressionable in thinking political endorsements are authentic. </p>
<p>The desire to court influencers might even distort public policy. As writer Katie Harbath has <a href="https://anchorchange.substack.com/p/will-2024-be-the-influencer-election">observed</a>, when it comes to debates like whether to ban TikTok over privacy or national security concerns: “Democrats are in a tricky spot because they want access to the younger user base that the app has but also recognise the challenges with the app.”</p>
<h2>Can influencers swing elections?</h2>
<p>If the name “influencer” implies anything, the answer is yes — at least on the margins. While rigorous, experimental evidence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20563051231177938">is hard to come by</a>, and the trend in politics is relatively new, it’s clear that Americans who increasingly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/15/news-trends-social/">get much of their news from digital sources</a> are <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-social-media-makes-us-more-polarized-and-how-to-fix-it/">shaped by online content</a>. </p>
<p>People First, a firm that specialises in influencer partnerships, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/elections/influencers-political-ads-tiktok-instagram.html">has found</a>, for example, that more than 40% of people surveyed “trusted influencers more than political campaigns themselves”. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, influencers are likely to disproportionately sway <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/85/2/725/6294224?redirectedFrom=fulltext">youth voters, who tend to lean Democrat</a>. Gen-Z and young millenial voters could turn out at higher rates as a result. </p>
<p>In a 2024 election that’s likely to be decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states, influencers could be influential. Biden, especially, can’t afford to lose the youth vote that supported <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/">Democrats at high rates in the 2022 midterms</a>. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theorists who think that Taylor Swift is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/02/taylor-swift-kelce-conspiracy-tariffs-immigration/">CIA asset aiming to upend American politics</a> are looking in the wrong place. For evidence of a more disruptive (and, potentially corruptible) form of politics, they need only fire up social media.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling suggests young Republicans may be more enthusiastic about Trump, than young Democrats are about Biden.Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226802024-03-12T12:32:40Z2024-03-12T12:32:40ZClimate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581053/original/file-20240311-20-u3utg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-seen-holding-signs-at-the-protest-ahead-of-the-news-photo/1675097127?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you ask American voters what their top issues are, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">most will point</a> to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education. </p>
<p>Fewer than 5% of respondents in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys</a> said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country. </p>
<p>Despite this, research <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">that I conducted with my colleages</a> suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters’ choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor. This was the conclusion of <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/10494414">an analysis</a> of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/centers/center-social-and-environmental-futures-c-sef">Center for Social and Environmental Futures</a>. </p>
<p>What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a blue suit and stands on a stage in front of a screen that says 'historic climate action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s work to combat climate change on Nov. 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-speak-about-his-news-photo/1782480738?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Measuring climate change’s effect on elections</h2>
<p>We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/data">Voter Study Group</a> to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters’ presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change. </p>
<p>The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” </p>
<p>In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage. </p>
<p>Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.</p>
<p>These patterns echo the results of a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">November 2023 poll</a>. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.</p>
<h2>What might explain the effect of climate change on voting</h2>
<p>So, if most voters – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">even Democrats</a> – do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election? </p>
<p>Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:</p>
<p>First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">won Georgia</a> by about 10,000 votes – 0.2% of the votes cast – and he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast. </p>
<p>Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">is so strong</a> that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general. </p>
<p>Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">there is strong evidence</a> that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world. </p>
<h2>Where the candidates stand</h2>
<p>Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-presidential-candidates-stand-climate-change/story?id=103313379">has previously called</a> climate change a “hoax.”</p>
<p>In 2017, Trump <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/">withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement</a>, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">Biden reversed</a> that decision in 2021.</p>
<p>While in office, Trump rolled back <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">125 environmental rules and policies</a> aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">these regulations hurt</a> businesses.</p>
<p>Biden has restored <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-restores-federal-environmental-regulations-scaled-back-by-trump">many of these regulations</a>. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sec-climate-disclosure-regulations.html">requirement for businesses</a> to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684">also signed</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346">three major</a> laws that <a href="https://rmi.org/climate-innovation-investment-and-industrial-policy/">each provides</a> tens of <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">billions in annual spending</a> to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">has also become</a> the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden’s term.</p>
<p>In the current campaign, Trump has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/second-trump-presidency-would-axe-biden-climate-agenda-gut-energy-regulators-2024-02-16/">promised to eliminate</a> subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313">could face opposition</a> from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats. </p>
<p>Public <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">opinion varies</a> on particular <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/">climate policies</a> that <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">Biden has enacted</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-politics-policy-fall-2023/toc/4/">November 2023 Yale survey</a> found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people march and wave banners and flags in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People march from the U.S. Capitol to the White House protesting former President Donald Trump’s environmental policies in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-from-the-u-s-capitol-to-the-white-house-for-news-photo/674864930?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What this means for 2024</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">Our study</a> found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.</p>
<p>Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">is currently the top issue</a> for a plurality of voters, and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">recent national polls</a> suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden. </p>
<p>Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats’ climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">risk losing voters</a> when their policies <a href="https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy">impose economic costs</a>, or when they are framed as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">anti-capitalist</a>, <a href="https://osf.io/tdkf3">racial</a>, or <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-we-will-fight-climate-change">overly pessimistic</a>. Some Republican-backed climate policies, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/bpc-morning-consult-poll-finds-voters-support-permitting-reform-61-to-13/">like trying to speed up</a> renewable energy projects, are popular.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.Matt Burgess, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254342024-03-12T12:30:55Z2024-03-12T12:30:55ZYes, sexism among Republican voters helped sink Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580810/original/file-20240309-28-5iqh5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C12%2C8194%2C5475&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump supporters drive by a rally for Nikki Haley on Feb.1, 2024, in Columbia, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flag-festooned-truck-in-support-of-former-president-donald-news-photo/1978923483?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following multiple defeats in the Republican presidential primary, including in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/politics/nikki-haley-south-carolina-loss/index.html">her home state</a> of South Carolina, Nikki Haley <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/haley-out-speech-transcript.html">suspended her bid</a> for the Republican presidential nomination on March 6, 2024.</p>
<p>Barring unforeseen events, Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate in November’s election.</p>
<p>Haley’s failure to pose a more serious challenge to Trump may be puzzling to some. After all, she was <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/14/nikki-haley-2024-bio-what-you-need-to-know-00082742">a formidable candidate with notable political experience</a> in both federal and state government. She had outlasted prominent Republican officials, including <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis</a>, former <a href="https://apnews.com/article/christie-presidential-race-5e974cfa407d39af878f066a71af35ad">New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tim-scott-drops-out-2024-race-b9cc8fbeba57a123789d8d0484164e38#:%7E:text=COLUMBIA%2C%20S.C.%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94,in%20Iowa's%20leadoff%20GOP%20caucuses.">South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott</a>, in the GOP primary.</p>
<p>And Trump has serious political liabilities. Although he is wildly popular among Republican primary voters, Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/donald-trump-primary-wins.html">support is much weaker among likely general election voters</a>. Trump’s unpopularity served as <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/09/nation/vote-counting-drags-signs-trumpisms-drag-red-wave/">a drag on Republicans’ performance</a> in the 2018 midterm elections, likely cost him a winnable presidential election in 2020 and contributed to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/trump-candidates-underperform-2022/">Republicans’ underperformance in the 2022 midterms</a>.</p>
<p>He also faces indictments on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/trump-charges-jan-6-classified-documents/">91 state and federal charges</a> ranging from plotting to overturn the 2020 election to withholding classified documents in his home in Florida. And observers, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5107004/haley-targets-biden-trumps-age-vows-stay-race">including Haley</a>, have raised serious questions about his age, physical fitness and mental acuity.</p>
<p>Given her strengths and Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Haley’s primary campaign fall flat? Of course, part of the reason is Trump’s unique appeal with Republican primary voters. Over the past eight years, Trump has forged a distinctive bond with his voters that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/16/politics/trump-supporters-indictments-mug-shot/index">leads them to overlook</a> his significant political weaknesses. </p>
<p>But sexism is also an important part of the explanation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people standing on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nikki Haley, left, outlasted many strong GOP primary candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidates-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1705066202?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trump’s history of sexism</h2>
<p>Back in 2016, Trump frequently <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/10/23/498878356/sexism-is-out-in-the-open-in-the-2016-campaign-that-may-have-been-inevitable">made sexist remarks</a> directed at Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. He called her a “nasty woman,” said she does not have the “presidential look” and contended that Clinton was “playing the woman card.” </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12737">Research shows</a> that voters with more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9468-2">sexist</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfy003">attitudes</a> were more likely to support Trump in 2016. </p>
<p>Eight years later, Trump employed a similar sexist playbook, questioning Haley’s qualifications, commenting on her appearance, characterizing her as “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-ramps-attacks-overly-ambitious-haley-potential-2024-gop-rivals">overly ambitious</a>” and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/12/politics/nikki-haley-husband-trump-attack/index.html">mocking her</a> for having an absentee husband. Haley’s husband is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/us/politics/nikki-haley-husband-michael.html">in the South Carolina National Guard</a> and currently deployed overseas.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OfgJBywAAAAJ&hl=en">We are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OsXHylAAAAAJ&hl=en">political</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/people/adam-eichen">scientists who</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/research/umass-poll">field and analyze public opinion</a> surveys to better understand Americans’ attitudes. Using evidence from our recent <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/January2024NationalPollAllToplines.pdf">national poll</a>, we can examine how sexism influenced Republicans’ preferences in the 2024 Republican primary. </p>
<p>We first asked Republican respondents whom they would favor in the Republican presidential primary. Next, we measured sexist attitudes by asking respondents a series of questions about their prejudice, resentment and animus toward women. These attitudes are collectively known as “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/optimizing-the-measurement-of-sexism-in-political-surveys/58A96CD10C45B2BFE66B585CAEB200F2">hostile sexism</a>.” We also collected information about Republicans’ demographic characteristics, political attitudes and beliefs about the economy.</p>
<p><iframe id="VMydQ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VMydQ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Familiar foe of sexism in the electorate</h2>
<p>We find that individuals who supported Trump display much higher levels of sexism than those who favored Haley. Only 27% of Haley supporters agreed with the statement that “women seek to gain power by getting control over men,” but 38% of Trump voters agreed.</p>
<p>Likewise, when asked whether “women are too easily offended,” 52% of Trump supporters agreed, while 42% of those supporting Haley did so.</p>
<p>Finally, when provided with the prompt that “women exaggerate problems they have at work,” 37% of Trump voters agreed while only 25% of Haley voters expressed this view.</p>
<p>Next, we undertook an analysis that examined how sexist attitudes related to support for Trump relative to Haley, while taking into account demographic characteristics, political identities and views on the national economy.</p>
<p>This analysis confirmed that, even after taking into account these factors, individuals with more sexist attitudes were more likely to favor Trump over Haley.</p>
<p>In her challenge to Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, Haley, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/hostile-sexism-benevolent-sexism-and-american-elections/F47B3070DF5182CDE9EEBF2BE26E6FB9">like female candidates across the partisan divide</a>, contended with the familiar foe of sexism in the electorate. </p>
<p>While much is uncertain about the upcoming election, the nation will almost certainly continue to wait for its first female president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Given her strengths and Donald Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Nikki Haley fail to seriously challenge Trump’s dominant position in the GOP primaries? Sexism is part of the answer.Tatishe Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science and Director of the UMass Amherst Poll, UMass AmherstAdam Eichen, PhD Student, Political Science, UMass AmherstJesse Rhodes, Associate Professor, Political Science, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251582024-03-08T04:01:43Z2024-03-08T04:01:43ZBiden defends immigration policy during State of the Union, blaming Republicans in Congress for refusing to act<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580628/original/file-20240308-24-r50pvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address on March 7, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-delivers-the-annual-state-of-the-union-news-photo/2059263399?adppopup=true">Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>President Joe Biden delivered the annual <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery-2/">State of the Union address</a> on March 7, 2024, casting a wide net on a range of major themes – the economy, abortion rights, threats to democracy, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine – that are preoccupying many Americans heading into the November presidential election.</em></p>
<p><em>The president also addressed massive increases in immigration at the southern border and the political battle in Congress over how to manage it. “We can fight about the border, or we can fix it. I’m ready to fix it,” Biden said.</em></p>
<p><em>But while Biden stressed that he wants to overcome political division and take action on immigration and the border, he cautioned that he will not “demonize immigrants,” as he said his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, does.</em> </p>
<p><em>“I will not separate families. I will not ban people from America because of their faith,” Biden said.</em></p>
<p><em>Biden’s speech comes as a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4422273-immigration-overtakes-inflation-top-voter-concern-poll/">rising number of American voters</a> say that <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">immigration is the country’s biggest problem</a>.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://gould.usc.edu/faculty/profile/jean-lantz-reisz/">Immigration law scholar Jean Lantz Reisz</a> answers four questions about why immigration has become a top issue for Americans, and the limits of presidential power when it comes to immigration and border security.</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Joe Biden stands surrounded by people in formal clothing and smiles. One man holds a cell phone camera close up to his face." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden arrives to deliver the State of the Union address at the US Capitol on March 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-deliver-the-state-of-the-news-photo/2067104727?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. What is driving all of the attention and concern immigration is receiving?</h2>
<p>The unprecedented number of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border right now has drawn national concern to the U.S. immigration system and the president’s enforcement <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/22/1221006083/immigration-border-election-presidential">policies at the border</a>. </p>
<p>Border security has always been part of the immigration debate about how to stop unlawful immigration.</p>
<p>But in this election, the immigration debate is also fueled by images of large groups of migrants crossing a river and crawling through <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-number-migrant-border-crossings-december-2023/">barbed wire fences</a>. There is also news of standoffs between Texas law enforcement and U.S. <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/24/texas-border-wire-supreme-court/">Border Patrol agents</a> and cities like New York and Chicago struggling to handle the influx of arriving migrants. </p>
<p>Republicans blame Biden for not taking action on what they say is an <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-doubles-warnings-migrant-crime-border-speech/story?id=107691336">“invasion”</a> at the U.S. border. Democrats blame Republicans for refusing to pass laws that would give the president the power to stop the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-and-trump-s-dueling-border-visits-will-encapsulate-a-building-election-clash/ar-BB1j5jKy">flow of migration at the border</a>. </p>
<h2>2. Are Biden’s immigration policies effective?</h2>
<p>Confusion about immigration laws may be the reason people believe that Biden is not implementing effective policies at the border. </p>
<p>The U.S. passed a law in 1952 that gives any person arriving at the border or inside the U.S. the right to apply for asylum and the right to legally stay in the country, even if that person crossed the <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1158&num=0&edition=prelim">border illegally</a>. That law has not changed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/trump-overruled/#immigration">Courts struck down</a> many of former President Donald Trump’s policies that tried to limit immigration. Trump was able to lawfully deport migrants at the border without processing their asylum claims during the COVID-19 pandemic under a public health law <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/what-is-title-42-and-what-does-it-mean-for-immigration-at-the-southern-border">called Title 42</a>. Biden continued that policy <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-title-42-policy-immigration-what-happens-ending-expiration/">until the legal justification for Title 42</a> – meaning the public health emergency – ended in 2023. </p>
<p>Republicans falsely attribute the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/">surge in undocumented migration</a> to the U.S. over the past three years to something they call Biden’s <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4414432-house-approves-resolution-denouncing-bidens-open-border-policies/">“open border” policy</a>. There is no such policy. </p>
<p>Multiple factors are driving increased migration to the U.S. </p>
<p>More people are leaving dangerous or difficult situations in <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/02/the-crisis-at-the-border-a-primer-for-confused-americans.html">their countries</a>, and some people have waited to migrate until <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/border-numbers-fy2023">after the COVID-19 pandemic</a> ended. People who smuggle migrants are also <a href="https://thehill.com/campaign-issues/immigration/3576180-human-smugglers-often-target-migrants-with-misinformation-on-social-media-watchdog/">spreading misinformation</a> to migrants about the ability to enter and stay in the U.S. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a black blazer and a black hat as he stands next to a bald white man wearing a green uniform and a white truck that says 'Border Patrol' in green" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden walks with Jason Owens, the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol, as he visits the U.S.-Mexico border in Brownsville, Texas, on Feb. 29, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-walks-with-jason-owens-chief-of-us-news-photo/2041441026?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>3. How much power does the president have over immigration?</h2>
<p>The president’s power regarding immigration is limited to enforcing existing immigration laws. But the president has broad authority over how to enforce those laws. </p>
<p>For example, the president can place every single immigrant unlawfully <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1103&num=0&edition=prelim">present in the U.S.</a> in deportation proceedings. Because there is not enough money or employees at federal agencies and courts to accomplish that, the president will usually choose to prioritize the deportation of certain immigrants, like those who have committed serious and violent crimes in the U.S. </p>
<p>The federal agency Immigration and Customs Enforcement <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2023/12/29/immigrants-ice-border-deportations-2023/#">deported more than 142,000 immigrants</a> from October 2022 through September 2023, double the number of people it deported the previous fiscal year. </p>
<p>But under current law, the president does not have the power to summarily expel migrants who say they are afraid of returning to their country. The law requires the president to process their claims for asylum. </p>
<p>Biden’s ability to enforce immigration law also depends on a budget approved by Congress. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/29/fact-sheet-impact-of-bipartisan-border-agreement-funding-on-border-operations/">Without congressional approval</a>, the president cannot spend money to build a wall, increase immigration detention facilities’ capacity or send more Border Patrol agents to process undocumented migrants entering the country.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large group of people are seen sitting and standing along a tall brown fence in an empty area of brown dirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Migrants arrive at the border between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, to surrender to American Border Patrol agents on March 5, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/groups-of-migrants-of-different-nationalities-arrive-at-the-news-photo/2054049040?adppopup=true">Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. How could Biden address the current immigration problems in this country?</h2>
<p>In early 2024, Republicans in the Senate refused to pass a bill – developed by a bipartisan team of legislators – that would have made it harder to get asylum and given Biden the power to stop <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-biden-border-authority/">taking asylum applications</a> when migrant crossings reached a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senate-vote-border-bill-aid-02-07-24/h_3263c78238d0d2de96a203fad7fd9e94">certain number</a>. </p>
<p>During his speech, Biden called this bill the “toughest set of border security reforms we’ve ever seen in this country.”</p>
<p>That bill would have also provided <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senate-vote-border-bill-aid-02-07-24/h_3263c78238d0d2de96a203fad7fd9e94">more federal money</a> to help immigration agencies and courts quickly review more asylum claims and expedite the asylum process, which remains backlogged with millions of cases, Biden said. Biden said the bipartisan deal would also hire 1,500 more border security agents and officers, as well as 4,300 more asylum officers. </p>
<p>Removing this backlog in immigration courts could mean that some undocumented migrants, who now might wait six to eight years for an asylum hearing, would instead only wait six weeks, Biden said. That means it would be “highly unlikely” migrants would pay a large amount to be smuggled into the country, only to be “kicked out quickly,” Biden said. </p>
<p>“My Republican friends, you owe it to the American people to get this bill done. We need to act,” Biden said. </p>
<p>Biden’s remarks calling for Congress to pass the bill drew jeers from some in the audience. Biden quickly responded, saying that it was a bipartisan effort: “What are you against?” he asked. </p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-weighs-invoking-executive-authority-stage-border-crackdown-212f/">is now considering</a> using section 212(f) of the <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/laws-and-policy/legislation/immigration-and-nationality-act">Immigration and Nationality Act</a> to get more control over immigration. This sweeping law allows the president to temporarily suspend or restrict the entry of all foreigners if their arrival is detrimental to the U.S.</p>
<p>This obscure law gained attention when Trump used it in January 2017 to implement a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-immigration-ban-raises-more-questions-answers-here-s-n1188946">travel ban</a> on foreigners from mainly Muslim countries. The Supreme Court upheld the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/01/world/americas/travel-ban-trump-how-it-works.html">travel ban in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>Trump again also signed an executive order in April 2020 that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-immigration-ban-raises-more-questions-answers-here-s-n1188946">blocked foreigners who were seeking lawful permanent residency from entering the country</a> for 60 days, citing this same section of the Immigration and Nationality Act. </p>
<p>Biden did not mention any possible use of section 212(f) during his State of the Union speech. If the president uses this, it would likely be challenged in court. It is not clear that 212(f) would apply to people already in the U.S., and it conflicts with existing asylum law that gives people within the U.S. the right to seek asylum.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean Lantz Reisz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A rising number of Americans say that immigration is the country’s biggest problem. Biden called for Congress to pass a bipartisan border and immigration bill during his State of the Union.Jean Lantz Reisz, Clinical Associate Professor of Law, Co-Director, USC Immigration Clinic, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249302024-03-07T13:31:57Z2024-03-07T13:31:57ZI watched Hungary’s democracy dissolve into authoritarianism as a member of parliament − and I see troubling parallels in Trumpism and its appeal to workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580025/original/file-20240305-20-3hi9y2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C10%2C3431%2C2478&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump shakes hands with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during a meeting in the Oval Office on May 13, 2019, in Washington, D.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-shakes-hands-with-hungarian-prime-news-photo/1148899659?adppopup=true">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarian-pm-orban-meet-trump-march-8-florida-2024-03-04/">Hungarian leader</a> <a href="https://www.gmfus.org/news/when-people-elect-strongman-rule">and strongman Viktor Orbán</a>, who presided over the radical decline of democracy in his country, is scheduled to meet with former President Donald Trump, now the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort on March 8, 2024.</p>
<p>Orbán has been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67832416">Hungary’s prime minister</a> since 2010. Under his leadership, the country became the first nondemocracy in the European Union – an “<a href="https://budapestbeacon.com/full-text-of-viktor-orbans-speech-at-baile-tusnad-tusnadfurdo-of-26-july-2014/">illiberal state</a>,” as Orbán proudly declared. Trump expressed his admiration for Orbán and his authoritarian moves during their meeting at the White House in 2019.</p>
<p>“You’re respected all over Europe. Probably, like me, a little bit controversial, but that’s OK,” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/13/trump-latest-viktor-orban-hungary-prime-minister-white-house">Trump said</a>. “You’ve done a good job and you’ve kept your country safe.”</p>
<p>I’ve followed their mutual romance with illiberalism for a long time. Although I am now in the U.S. <a href="https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/scheiring-gabor">as an academic</a>, I was <a href="https://www.gaborscheiring.com/">elected to the Hungarian Parliament</a> in 2010 when Orbán’s rule started.</p>
<p>As the U.S. braces for a potential second Trump presidency, Americans may rightly wonder: Would Trump’s America mirror Orbán’s Hungary in its slide toward authoritarianism?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people standing before a crowd holding stop signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Member of Parliament Gábor Scheiring, right, with two colleagues, all wearing signs that say ‘Enough,’ chained themselves to the Parliament building in a December 2011 protest against the increasing autocracy of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo Akos Stiller</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Authoritarianism from within</h2>
<p>I can still feel the pleasant spring breeze on my skin as I walked up the National Assembly’s stairs in my freshly bought suit. As newly elected members of Parliament, my Green Party colleagues and I stepped into our roles with high hopes and detailed plans to fix Hungary’s ailing economy and move toward sustainability.</p>
<p>I also remember the cold winter day a year and half later when we <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL6E7NN14R/">chained ourselves to the parliament building</a>. It was a demonstration against the hollowing of parliamentary work and democratic backsliding under Orbán’s rule.</p>
<p>If the parliament is the political home of democracy, Hungary’s was vacant by 2012.</p>
<p>Orbán and his party in power hijacked democratic institutions. The nationwide right-wing media network is a crucial component of this authoritarian power. As the Voice of America <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hungarian-prime-minister-shows-why-american-right-embraces-him/6687500.html">reported in 2022</a>, Orbán’s allies “have created a pervasive conservative media ecosystem that dominates the airwaves and generally echoes the positions of the Orbán government.” </p>
<p>His government gerrymandered local districts and allowed voters to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/world/europe/hungary-viktor-orban-election.html">register outside their home districts</a>, both aimed at favoring Orbán and his party. The government also staffed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1X8244/">the public prosecutor’s office with loyalists</a>, ensuring that any misconduct by those in power stays hidden. </p>
<p>Republicans in the U.S. have followed a similar trajectory with their support of Trump as his rhetoric <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-democracy-election-2024-f2f824f056ae9f81f4e688fe590f41b4">grows more authoritarian</a>. Trump says if he wins the election, he wants to be <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-hannity-dictator-authoritarian-presidential-election-f27e7e9d7c13fabbe3ae7dd7f1235c72">“a dictator” for one day</a>. A recent poll shows that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4453457-74-percent-of-republicans-say-its-fine-for-trump-to-be-dictator-for-a-day/">74% of Republicans surveyed</a> said it would be a good idea for Trump to “be a dictator only on the first day of his second term.”</p>
<p>Orbán has spent years <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/world/europe/hungary-viktor-orban-judges.html">undermining the independence of Hungary’s judiciary</a>, ensuring its rulings are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/world/europe/hungary-courts.html">friendly to his government and allies</a>. While still an independent institution, the U.S. Supreme Court – with <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-14th-amendment-immunity-supreme-court-d3f001f66c5c3e85302b8772753ed769">three Trump-nominated justices</a> – has become a pillar of Trumpism, handing down rulings overturning the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">constitutional right to abortion</a> and <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf">limiting civil rights</a>.</p>
<p>Fox, OANN, and other right-wing media ensure that large parts of America see <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/05/1229295278/the-fracturing-and-expansion-of-conservative-media-ahead-of-the-presidential-ele">the world through a Trumpian lens</a>.</p>
<p>Authoritarian populists tilt the democratic playing field to favor themselves and their personal and political interests. Subverting democracy from the inside without violent repression allows leaders like Orbán and Trump to pretend they are democratic. This authoritarianism from within creates chokepoints, where the opposition isn’t crushed, but it has a hard time breathing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A demonstrator holding a placard that in Hungarian says 'Down with the Fascist government.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A placard reads ‘Down with the Fascist government’ in front of the Parliament building in Budapest on June 14, 2021, during a demonstration against the Hungarian government’s draft bill seeking to ban the ‘promotion’ of homosexuality and sex changes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participant-holds-a-placard-reading-down-with-the-fascist-news-photo/1233454607?adppopup=true">Gergely Besenyei/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No democracy with division</h2>
<p>How can strongmen get away with these antidemocratic politics? If there is one lesson from Hungary, it is this: Democracy is not sustainable in a divided society where many are left behind economically.</p>
<p>The real power of authoritarian populists like Trump and Orban lies not in the institutions they hijack but in the novel electoral support coalition they create.</p>
<p>They bring together two types of supporters. Some hardcore, authoritarian-right voters are motivated by bigotry and hatred rooted in their fear of globalization’s cultural threats. However, the most successful right-wing populist forces <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/19110-20220517.pdf">integrate an outer layer of primarily working-class voters</a> hurt by globalization’s economic threats.</p>
<p>Throughout the 20th century, Democrats in the U.S. and left-of-center parties in Europe provided a political home for those fearing economic insecurity. This fostered a political system that engendered equality and a healthy social fabric, giving people reason to care for liberal democratic institutions. </p>
<p>However, when the economy fails to deliver, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/04/07/hungary-dissatisfied-with-democracy-but-not-its-ideals/">disillusionment with capitalism</a> morphs into an apathy toward liberal democracy.</p>
<p>If the liberal center appears uncaring, authoritarian populists can mobilize voters against both the cultural and economic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123424000024">threats posed by globalization</a>.</p>
<p>In Hungary, the first signs of authoritarianism appeared in economically left-behind rural areas and provincial small and medium towns well before Orbán’s 2010 victory. While these provincial towns suffered from increasing mortality, deindustrialization and income loss, the parties of the liberal center continued to sing hymns about the benefits of globalization, detached from the everyday experience of economic insecurity. </p>
<p>As I showed in my book, neglecting this suffering was the democratic center’s <a href="https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/hybrid-authoritarianism/">politically lethal failure</a>.</p>
<p>By today, Hungary’s liberal and left-of-center parties have retreated to the biggest cities, leaving their former provincial political strongholds up for grabs for the radical right. The same is taking place in the U.S., with the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/04/new-republican-party-working-class-coalition-00122822">Republicans becoming a party of the working class</a> and nonmetropolitan America.</p>
<p>The success of authoritarian populism in Hungary might seem disheartening. However, there is a silver lining: Those committed to democracy in the U.S. still have time to learn from Hungary’s mistakes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I was a Member of the Hungarian Parliament for the Greens from 2010 to 2014.</span></em></p>One of Donald Trump’s favorite politicians is the Hungarian authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán. Would a country led again by Trump embrace similar antidemocratic politics?Gábor Scheiring, Fellow, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.