tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/drones-2513/articlesDrones – The Conversation2024-03-28T00:33:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256642024-03-28T00:33:06Z2024-03-28T00:33:06ZCoastal dunes are retreating as sea levels rise - our research reveals the accelerating rate of change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584278/original/file-20240326-28-gjzijw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Hesp</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In some parts of Australia, coastal dunes are retreating from the ocean at an alarming rate, as waves carve up the beach and wind blows the sand inland. But coastal communities are largely oblivious to the changes.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169555X24001156">new research</a> documents the retreat, revealing an accelerating rate of change along Australia’s longest coastal dunefield, in South Australia. These beaches are being reshaped in the geological blink of an eye. </p>
<p>Wave action is eroding the shoreline and the wind is carrying the sand further inland, where new dunes are being formed. Climate change may be <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-fuelled-wave-patterns-pose-an-erosion-risk-for-developing-countries-184064">accelerating the rate of change</a> by increasing <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.aav9527">ocean wind speeds and wave heights</a>.</p>
<p>This provides yet another reason to reduce emissions and limit global warming – before our beaches and dunes disappear before our very eyes. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UEykBpCvLEE?wmode=transparent&start=10" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Drone footage from Younghusband Peninsula in South Australia (Patrick Hesp)</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-rising-sea-levels-will-affect-our-coastal-cities-and-towns-221121">How rising sea levels will affect our coastal cities and towns</a>
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<h2>Australia’s longest stretch of coastal dunes</h2>
<p>Our South Australian study site, the Younghusband Peninsula, is the longest coastal dune system in Australia. It extends some 190km from the Murray River mouth at Goolwa to Kingston in the state’s southeast. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Locator maps pinpointing the dune study area, half a mile southeast of 42 Mile Crossing in South Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584283/original/file-20240326-30-gbypzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584283/original/file-20240326-30-gbypzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584283/original/file-20240326-30-gbypzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584283/original/file-20240326-30-gbypzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584283/original/file-20240326-30-gbypzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1629&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584283/original/file-20240326-30-gbypzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584283/original/file-20240326-30-gbypzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1629&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The dune study area in South Australia was half a mile southeast of 42 Mile Crossing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Hesp</span></span>
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<p>The shoreline of the central region of the peninsula, near 42 Mile Crossing in the Coorong National Park, started eroding in the early 1980s.</p>
<p>Our new research has found the shoreline has eroded about 100 metres since that time, at an average rate of 1.9m per year. Recently this has become much faster and is now up to 3.3 metres a year. That’s equivalent to losing a tennis court from the front of your house every seven years.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the dunes are marching inland at an incredible rate of 10 metres a year. </p>
<p>This is an extraordinary rate of change. If the shoreline erosion trend continues, it will dramatically change the national park dune system. </p>
<p>Dune sands may also invade the iconic Coorong Lagoon, impacting the Ramsar-listed wetland of international significance. Sand could slowly fill the lagoon, transforming the environment and reducing the habitat available for fish, waterbirds and other wildlife.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial imagery showing the formation of new sand dunes as the shoreline is eroded by waves" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584299/original/file-20240326-18-ldeufl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Contrasting aerial imagery from 1978, 1995, 2005, 2008, 2013 and 2019, showing erosion of the shoreline and formation of new sand dunes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcio DaSilva using images from Google Earth</span></span>
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<p>Our research also examined how the shoreline has changed over the past 80 years, using <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/esp.5400">aerial photography and satellite imagery</a>, and when the dunes on the Younghusband Peninsula formed, using various dating methods, historical aerial photography from 1945, and satellite imagery. We found they are forming at a very rapid rate. </p>
<p>This new field of coastal dunes developed in just over a decade. The landward edge of the dunefield has moved inland more than 100 metres in eight years.</p>
<p>Three factors may be causing the shoreline erosion and subsequent dune evolution. Offshore reefs that would have protected the coastline have been breaking down. Sea level has been slowly rising since 1920, so higher waves may be reaching the shore. And wave energy has been increasing in the Southern Ocean in the past ten years. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1030" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1030/4cf3eba59b2b09275ba18abf4e6a63f0c94b2b04/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Shaping coastal dunes</h2>
<p>Large dune systems are formed by sediment transported by waves from the ocean and the surfzone (where waves break). Once waves deposit the sand on the beach, the wind transports it landwards, creating dunes. </p>
<p>Where large amounts of sediment are delivered to a beach and blown inland, “transgressive” dunes may form. We also examined what drives the development of a transgressive dunefield.</p>
<p>Our research shows there are various factors involved, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>high sediment supply from the nearshore and beach system</li>
<li>rising sea level acting as a marine bulldozer that pushes sediments shorewards</li>
<li>wave scarping (creating steep, precipitous sand cliffs that are then prone to collapse) followed by wind erosion of dunes at the back of the beach</li>
<li>climate change resulting in lower rainfall, stronger winds, and a lowering of the water table, which all affect plant growth.</li>
</ul>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-fuelled-wave-patterns-pose-an-erosion-risk-for-developing-countries-184064">Climate-fuelled wave patterns pose an erosion risk for developing countries</a>
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<h2>The eroded area is expanding north and south</h2>
<p>Our continuing observations and fieldwork show beach erosion and scarping now <a href="https://cmi.ga.gov.au/data-products/dea/581/dea-coastlines">extends for several kilometres</a> northwest and southeast of the area near 42 Mile Crossing.</p>
<p>Underlying older dunes are being cannibalised by the wind. As the scarp slope retreats, it supplies sediment that continues <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169555X24001156">building up the dunes</a> and transporting sand landwards across the older dunefield.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An oblique aerial view of the study site showing the formation of steep sand cliffs (~12m high) and new sand dunes smothering vegetation inland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584245/original/file-20240325-30-ap7je9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drone footage shows wave action is forming steep sand cliffs (~12m high). The new sand dunes are cannibalising and migrating over the older vegetated dunes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Hesp</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drone footage shows how wave erosion of the shoreline combined with wind-driven erosion can trigger the creation of a transgressive dunefield. </p>
<p>Our research shows many of the standard assumptions about the development rates and timescales of dunefield evolution may be wrong. If erosion at this site continues to extend north and south, massive changes to the dunefield system, coastal habitats and possibly the Coorong Lagoon may occur. </p>
<p>Such shoreline erosion and dunefield changes suggest what may happen in future to many Australian beach and dune systems as sea levels continue to rise with climate change.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K7yAXN-9Jjo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Flinders University Professor Patrick Hesp talks about his research into coastal dunes.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/become-a-beach-scientist-this-summer-and-help-monitor-changing-coastlines-214307">Become a beach scientist this summer and help monitor changing coastlines</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225664/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Hesp receives funding from Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcio D. DaSilva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some Aussie beaches are being reshaped and coastal dunes are marching inland. We used data from aerial photography, field surveys, laser mapping and drones to study incredible rates of change.Patrick Hesp, Professor, Flinders UniversityMarcio D. DaSilva, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260272024-03-19T14:04:11Z2024-03-19T14:04:11ZNiger has cut military ties with the US: why this is bad for the Sahel’s security<p>Niger – a landlocked country of 25 million people in one of the most unstable parts of the world – recently <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/17/niger-suspends-military-cooperation-with-us#:%7E:text=Niger%20has%20suspended%20its%20military,security%20interests%20in%20the%20region.">announced</a> it was suspending military cooperation with the United States. </p>
<p>For over a decade, Niger has been <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/07/29/with-niger-coup-the-west-loses-a-crucial-ally-in-the-sahel_6071295_4.html">one of America’s most reliable</a> allies in the Sahel. The Sahel region, which stretches across Africa from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, is one of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">largest poorly governed regions in the world</a>. Terrorism, banditry, trafficking (humans, arms, drugs), cattle rustling and armed robbery have thrived in the region. </p>
<p>In the last few years, democracy has been threatened in the region. There have been <a href="https://www.gcsp.ch/publications/understanding-crisis-democracy-west-africa-and-sahel">seven coup d’états</a> there since 2020, four of which were successful. The <a href="https://www.iiss.org/sv/publications/strategic-comments/2023/the-coup-in-niger/">coup in Niger</a> in July 2023 was the most recent, following those in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58461971">Guinea</a>, <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/understanding-burkina-faso-latest-coup/">Burkina Faso</a> and <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/mali-un-coup-dans-le-coup">Mali</a>. </p>
<p>The juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso identified three main reasons for military takeover: increasing insecurity, economic stagnation and corruption.</p>
<p>Following the military takeover in Niger, the US did not initially label it a coup. This was in a bid to retain some elements of military cooperation with the country. Designating it a coup would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-military-mission-niger-focus-after-coup-2023-08-10/">limit the security assistance</a> the US could provide the country. </p>
<p>In October 2023, the US eventually called the event a coup, thereby limiting security cooperation. The US had <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/17/niger-suspends-military-cooperation-with-us">650 military personnel</a> working in Niger as of December 2023. </p>
<p>I have studied the region through a security and political lens for over a decade. Based on the research I have done, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">including a paper written in 2018</a> on the US drone base in Agadez, I believe that Niger’s decision to end military cooperation with the US will have a dramatic impact on security in the region. Some of the consequences could be limited surveillance of insurgent groups, a reduction in intelligence sharing and a possible escalation of attacks by terrorist groups. </p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>The first deployment of US troops to Niger was in <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/10/politics/niger-american-troops-presence/index.html">2013 when 100 military personnel</a> were deployed and operated from a military base at Niamey airport which was shared with France. Washington later built one of its <a href="https://theintercept.com/2016/09/29/u-s-military-is-building-a-100-million-drone-base-in-africa/">largest</a> drone bases in Africa in Agadez-Niger. The base enabled it to carry out <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-niger-drone-base/">intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance activities</a>, which covered almost the entire Sahel region. </p>
<p>Since the “Air Base 201” drone base was <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/africa_us-constructed-air-base-niger-begins-operations/6178666.html">commissioned</a> in 2019, it has been a major military asset to the US in the Sahel. Information gathered from the base has been essential in tracking and fighting insurgent groups operating in the region. </p>
<p>In addition to the drone base, the US also supported Niger with military aid before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-the-coup-in-niger-an-expert-outlines-three-driving-factors-210721">military coup of 2023</a>.</p>
<h2>Why the rupture?</h2>
<p>The first reason for ending military cooperation is the discontinued financial support from the US. </p>
<p>Niger is one of the <a href="https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/niger/">poorest countries</a> in the world and depends on foreign assistance. </p>
<p>Before the military coup in July 2023, the US was a significant contributor of aid to the country. In 2018, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-niger/">US committed US$437 million</a> to the country to strengthen Niger’s agricultural and livestock sectors. The US also supported the country’s fight against insurgency before the coup. </p>
<p>The coup dramatically changed the relationship. In October 2023 (three months after the coup), the US cut off more than <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231010-france-turns-a-page-as-troops-begin-leaving-coup-hit-niger">US$500 million</a> in assistance to Niger. This has affected the country’s security funding.</p>
<p>The second reason is that the Niger junta came to the view that the US was no longer willing to work with it. Shortly after the coup, the US drone operations in Niger were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/25/west-africa-sahel-military-junta/">limited</a> to surveillance to protect US assets. The US stopped sharing intelligence with the junta in Niger, putting pressure on the junta to relinquish power.</p>
<p>This has hampered Niger’s counter-terrorism operations because intelligence sharing is essential in tracking and planning attacks against insurgent groups. </p>
<p>Tied to this has been the issue of the drone base. The base is a major source of surveillance and intelligence gathering. There is, however, a <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/us-in-danger-of-losing-control-of-its-extensive-drone-base-in-niger-289069/">10-year usage agreement</a> which expires this year (2024). The junta might think it is the right time to sever the military relationship with the US so as not to renew the usage of the base. It is unclear what will happen to the drone base now that Niger is cutting ties with the US.</p>
<p>The abrupt reduction in military cooperation has frustrated Nigerien authorities who <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240317-niger-revokes-military-cooperation-with-us">argue</a> that the US is now operating in the country illegally. </p>
<p>The US is now trying to establish new security cooperation agreements and considering countries such as Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Benin for American reconnaissance drones. </p>
<p>In addition, the deepening of ties between Niger and Russia has been a major source of concern to the US. In January 2024, Niger agreed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/niger-and-russia-are-forming-military-ties-3-ways-this-could-upset-old-allies-221696">strengthen</a> military ties with Russia. This has been worrying for the US and its allies. One reason Niger is shifting towards Russia, apart from the cut in funding, is the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-threatens-to-pull-all-aid-for-niger-/7203124.html">unwillingness of the US</a> to provide Niger with the required weapons needed to fight insurgency. </p>
<h2>Implications for security</h2>
<p>The Sahel region is a vast area and US surveillance drones have been useful in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">identifying terrorist locations</a>. If the relationship between the US and Niger is permanently severed, surveillance and intelligence gathering will be seriously affected even if the US moves to other countries. This is because Niger is strategically located and the drones flown from the country could cover large parts of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">Sahel and west Africa</a>.</p>
<p>The fact that there has been an increase in terrorist attacks in <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel">Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso</a> since the coup in Niger in 2023 suggests these fears might be justified.</p>
<p>Terrorist groups could capitalise on the situation and become more daring. Surveillance drones offer a deterrence to terrorist groups. </p>
<p>I think it is in the interest of all the parties to engage in dialogue in a respectful manner. The Niger government accused the US of a “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/16/africa/niger-ends-us-military-agreement-intl-hnk/index.html">condescending attitude</a>” and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240317-niger-revokes-military-cooperation-with-us">trying to force</a> the junta to pick between the US and Russia. With Russia lurking around the corner, the US needs to change its approach not to lose this strategic partner.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Niger is cutting military ties with the US. This has implications for security in the Sahel region.Olayinka Ajala, Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254512024-03-14T15:25:28Z2024-03-14T15:25:28ZBoth sides in the Russia-Ukraine war are using new and old technologies for warfare<p>When it comes to technology, the war in Ukraine is a war of juxtapositions. On the one hand, this is the first major war in which a variety of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/unmanned-aerial-vehicle">unmanned aerial vehicles</a> (UAVs) — or drones — have played such a prominent role. On the other hand, this new technology has played a major part in forcing infantry to dig lines of trenches reminiscent of the First and Second World Wars.</p>
<p>Some of the technology in the war in Ukraine, <a href="https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2023/10/russias-war-in-ukraine-ballistic-and-cruise-trajectories/">such as the guided missiles being used by both sides</a>, isn’t fundamentally all that new. Modern guided missiles trace their origin back to early developments during the <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/hitlers-precision-guided-bombs-fritz-x-hs-293">latter part of the Second World War</a>. </p>
<p>Modern precision-guided weapons may be increasingly accurate in hitting their targets, but there is <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2022/03/04/americas-last-drone-strike-in-afghanistan-and-the-necropolitical-language-of-drone-warfare/">all too often considerable human error in allocating targets for them</a>.</p>
<p>What is new in the war in Ukraine is that it isn’t like many of the “<a href="https://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/what-is-a-small-war">small wars</a>” of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, in which one side had an almost overwhelming technological advantage. The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Taliban">Taliban in Afghanistan</a> didn’t have access to satellite imaging, large drones and <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11353">precision-guided munitions</a>, or even weapons to counter these, so they had to fight an <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/asymmetrical-warfare">“unconventional” or “asymmetrical” war</a>. </p>
<p>In the war in Ukraine, both sides have access to and are developing new and not-so-new technologies, with neither side having an overall technological edge.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a plane-shaped drone flies over forested hills" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581757/original/file-20240313-30-r82ze1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Iranian Shahed kamikaze drone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Drones and warfare</h2>
<p>Large drones have been in use in war for a number of years now. The United States in particular made heavy use of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/15/mq-9-reaper-what-is-the-us-drone-that-collided-with-a-russian-jet-and-how-is-it-used">large drones such as the Reaper</a> in Afghanistan, both for reconnaissance and targeted killings. Russia made use of large drones for <a href="http://cast.ru/eng/products/articles/russian-uavs-in-syria.html">reconnaissance in Syria</a> when its forces were supporting the Assad government there.</p>
<p>What is different in the war in Ukraine is the sheer number and range of drones being used. Large drones are still being used — including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/02/deadly-cheap-and-widespread-how-iran-supplied-drones-are-changing-the-nature-of-warfare">Iranian-developed “suicide” or “kamikaze” drones like the Shahed</a> being used by Russia — that can strike targets deep inside enemy territory. However, smaller drones are being used by both sides — often nearer to the frontline — for reconnaissance, artillery spotting and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62225830">as kamikaze drones</a>.</p>
<p>At the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian side had an advantage in drone warfare — that advantage <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-ukraine-drone-pilots-fear-early-advantage-over-russia-now-lost-2023-11-09/">has now arguably passed to Russia</a>. Russia has been able to produce and import huge numbers of drones and develop some <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drones-fighting-cat-mouse-battles-behind-russian-front-lines-ukraine-2023-11-01/">effective local countermeasures against Ukrainian drones</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ukraines-drones-sinking-russian-warships-1876608">Ukrainian naval drones</a> have, however, been a particular problem for the Russian navy. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2jeCwHViFGw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Footage appearing to show the sinking of the Russian warship Sergei Kotov.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The recent sinking of the large patrol ship Sergei Kotov with naval drones is a case in point. Modern warships are <a href="https://defencyclopedia.com/2016/05/02/analysis-importance-of-naval-guns-on-a-modern-warship/">not bristling with the sort of anti-aircraft guns</a> that their Second World War counterparts had to stop <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2020/october/countering-kamikaze">kamikaze pilots</a> for example. </p>
<p>But quite possibly they will soon be bristling again, because such guns are ideal for dealing with drones at close range. Even the <a href="http://www.gwpda.org/naval/nets.htm">humble torpedo net</a> from the late 19th century may make a return to try to stop drones reaching ships at anchor.</p>
<h2>Missile technology</h2>
<p>While in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. and other western powers made heavy use of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/missile">guided missiles</a>. What is different in Ukraine is that both sides have access to them. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.militarytoday.com/missiles/iskander.htm">Russian Iskander</a> and <a href="https://www.militarytoday.com/missiles/storm_shadow.htm">Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles</a> have proven highly effective at striking targets deep in the enemy rear. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-drone-spotted-a-ukrainian-patriot-air-defense-crew-convoying-near-the-front-line-soon-a-russian-hypersonic-missile-streaked-down/">Often targets for such missiles have been located using drones</a>.</p>
<p>Many tanks are being destroyed not only by or with the help of drones, but with anti-tank missiles such as the <a href="https://www.militarytoday.com/missiles/kornet.htm">Russian Kornet</a>, or much vaunted <a href="https://www.militarytoday.com/missiles/javelin.htm">U.S.-supplied Javelin</a> on the Ukrainian side. </p>
<p>Anti-tank missiles are not new — the Egyptian armed forces for example made good use of recently developed <a href="https://www.militarytoday.com/missiles/malyutka.htm">Soviet anti-tank missiles</a> during the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Yom-Kippur-War">Yom Kippur War</a> in 1973.</p>
<p>The anti-tank missiles being used in Ukraine today are however much more sophisticated. Back in 1973, anti-tank missiles often had to be connected to the operator through a <a href="https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Wire-guided_missile">fine wire that was reeled out by the missile as it flew</a>! Today’s missiles typically have more sophisticated and reliable targeting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="black and white photograph of a man in military uniform crouching beside a missile." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581675/original/file-20240313-24-3e8rfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israeli Defense Forces soldier with an anti-tank guided missile, captured from Egyptian forces during the Yom Kippur War in 1973.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nli.org.il/en/images/NNL_ARCHIVE_AL990040053080205171/NLI#$FL45740532">(Dan Hadani Collection, The Pritzker Family National Photography Collection, The National Library of Israel)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New and old technologies</h2>
<p>A lot of drone use is for reconnaissance to help both sides carry out much lower technology tasks, <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/03/drones-are-transforming-the-battlefield-in-ukraine-but-in-an-evolutionary-fashion/">such as targeting conventional artillery</a> or guiding infantry.</p>
<p>While new technology has transformed the fighting in Ukraine, there are still many elements that would be easily understood by soldiers in the First World War. </p>
<p>Firstly, regardless of all the technology, ultimately the “<a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100336987">poor bloody infantry</a>” has to move in and occupy territory — and fight for it at close quarters. Soldiers still often have to kill other soldiers while in close proximity to each other.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="black and white photograph of a balloon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581756/original/file-20240313-20-h207ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A British observation balloon from 1908.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Imperial War Museum)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Typically, the technology of today may be new, but the function isn’t. We could, for example, see drones playing a role like the <a href="https://www.westernfrontassociation.com/world-war-i-articles/roasting-a-sausage-balloons-their-crews-and-those-who-shot-them-down/">observation balloons of the First World War</a>. These were used in particular for directing artillery fire. </p>
<p>Balloons stopped being used in war because of the development of weapons that could easily shoot them down, from aircraft to high-powered anti-aircraft guns.</p>
<p>When a new technology comes along, the race begins to counter it. The Russian armed forces have already had some success in <a href="https://ca.yahoo.com/news/jamming-electronic-warfare-reshaping-ukraine-173948128.html">jamming the link between drone operators and their drones</a>. </p>
<p>In the constant technological battle, what is next? <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/us/politics/ai-drones-war-law.html">Autonomous drones using AI</a> are in many ways a nightmare idea, but they are being worked on. Autonomous anti-drone drones would no doubt follow. </p>
<p>One thing is certain — <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2023/10/18/the-challenges-of-counter-drone-technology-as-seen-in-recent-conflicts/?sh=286b45ee7013">new technologies will be developed, to be followed by countermeasures</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/oct/15/dangerous-rise-of-military-ai-drone-swarm-autonomous-weapons">New hi-tech ways</a> of killing or facilitating it will continue to serve alongside the old methods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225451/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Russia-Ukraine war highlights developments in modern warfare, which uses new weaponry alongside traditional methods of fighting.Alexander Hill, Professor of Military History, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239802024-02-21T03:28:42Z2024-02-21T03:28:42ZAustralia wants navy boats with lots of weapons, but no crew. Will they run afoul of international law?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576937/original/file-20240221-20-kj0w1z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1043%2C4151%2C2414&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Photos/igphoto/2003326795/">Pierson Hawkins / US Navy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian Navy is set to be transformed. On top of existing plans for nuclear submarines, the government yesterday announced a scheme for an “<a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/independent-analysis-navy-surface-combatant-fleet">enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet</a>” including six new “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/20/australian-navy-warship-surface-combatant-fleet-double-hunter-class-losv">optionally crewed</a>” vessels.</p>
<p>The advantages of these vessels, which can operate with or without a crew, are clear. They can operate for longer, with more stealth, and allow military personnel to avoid hostile environments. </p>
<p>Simple remote-controlled craft have been used since at least the 1920s, but increasingly sophisticated uncrewed vessels are becoming more common. Ukraine has <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-how-uncrewed-boats-are-changing-the-way-wars-are-fought-at-sea-201606">used small uncrewed boats</a> against Russian targets in the Black Sea, the United States plans to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2024/01/30/pentagon-puts-out-call-for-swarming-attack-drones-that-could-blunt-a-taiwan-invasion">build a swarm of sea drones</a> to protect Taiwan, and China is <a href="https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2023/december/13868-edex-2023-china-s-csic-promotes-jari-usv-a-in-egypt.html">developing its own devices</a>.</p>
<p>However, it is so far unclear how these vessels fit within existing international law. Unless their legal status becomes more clear, it may increase the risk of conflict with potentially serious consequences. </p>
<h2>What’s the problem with uncrewed vehicles?</h2>
<p>The key international treaty regulating the ocean – the <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf">United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea</a> – was negotiated in the 1970s and early 1980s, well before uncrewed vessels of the kind we see today were a realistic concern.</p>
<p>The convention balances the rights of coastal states with those of maritime powers by dividing the ocean into different zones, with different rules about what states can do in each zone. It’s a <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm">complicated system</a>, but in general, states have more control over the use of the ocean closer to their own coasts.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-how-uncrewed-boats-are-changing-the-way-wars-are-fought-at-sea-201606">Ukraine: how uncrewed boats are changing the way wars are fought at sea</a>
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<p>Under the convention, foreign ships and vessels in waters close to the coasts of other states have certain navigational rights. These rights establish where ships can go in the ocean and what they can do when they are there. </p>
<p>Naval vessels also rely on these navigational rights to operate. In particular, where crucial sea lanes are very close to the coast – such as in the Malacca Strait between Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia – ships or other vessels without navigational rights may not have a firm legal footing for passing through. </p>
<p>And in a crisis, it may not be feasible to avoid such waters by finding another route. If states had different views about what actions were permissible, it would increase the risk of conflict.</p>
<h2>What counts as a ‘ship’?</h2>
<p>So what does all this have to do with Australia’s “optionally crewed systems”? </p>
<p>The first problem is that the convention on the law of the sea gives navigational rights to “ships” and “vessels” without defining what they mean. There is an <a href="https://law.uq.edu.au/article/2020/10/international-law-and-uncrewed-maritime-vehicles">ongoing debate</a> about whether these categories include uncrewed devices, or whether having people on board is required to qualify for navigational rights. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo of a speedboat powering through the water with nobody aboard." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576940/original/file-20240221-22-ye774b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vessels without a human crew can legally be ‘ships’, but whether they can be ‘warships’ is less clear.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://images.defence.gov.au/20220524ran8098978_273.jpg">Justin Brown / Commonwealth of Australia / Department of Defence</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/3910649/06McKenzie-unpaginated.pdf">my view</a>, the more convincing argument is that uncrewed vessels like the ones Australia plans to purchase should count as ships and vessels. </p>
<p>The convention is designed to be the “constitution of the ocean”, with a very broad scope. This suggests we should also take a broad idea of what counts as a ship or vessel.</p>
<h2>What counts as a ‘warship’?</h2>
<p>However, uncrewed devices may face a more significant problem: can they be “warships”? This is a special legal category for vessels with the right to engage in belligerent activities – that is, engage in warfare and naval blockades. </p>
<p>Again, it is the lack of people on board that may cause issues. Unlike “ship” and “vessel”, the term “warship” is explicitly defined in the convention. </p>
<p>According to Article 29 of the convention, warships must be, among other things, under the command of a commissioned officer and manned by a crew under armed forces discipline. A plain reading of these requirements suggests that a vessel without people on board cannot be a warship and must stay out of conflict.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-unveiled-its-navy-of-the-future-will-it-solve-our-current-problems-or-just-create-new-ones-223846">The government has unveiled its Navy of the future. Will it solve our current problems – or just create new ones?</a>
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<p>However, the <a href="https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/ils/vol99/iss1/27/">reason “warship” is defined this way</a> goes back to the 19th century, when states wanted to distinguish their own “warships” from the vessels of privateers. This is why the definition refers to the vessel being under command and with a crew that is part of the armed forces.</p>
<p>The point of the definition is to ensure the warship is controlled by a state. We should understand it as part of the effort by states to keep control of legally authorised violence, not an attempt to restrict certain rights to vessels with crews.</p>
<h2>The future of uncrewed vessels and the law</h2>
<p>How will this legal dilemma be resolved? The neatest solution – a revision to the convention to clarify the situation – is unlikely, because the political prospects of getting all 169 signatory states to agree to such a change are remote.</p>
<p>The stakes are high. The use of uncrewed vessels may plausibly lead to increased risk taking by states. It is easier to imagine the US sending a fleet of uncrewed vessels in a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/06/freedom-of-navigation-operation-china-us-maritime-law/">freedom of navigation operation</a> close to the Chinese coast than risking a crewed fleet. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-military-plans-to-unleash-thousands-of-autonomous-war-robots-over-next-two-years-212444">US military plans to unleash thousands of autonomous war robots over next two years</a>
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<p>What can states do to reduce the risk of miscalculation and conflict?</p>
<p>States like Australia that plan to adopt this technology should look to develop international law in other ways. They can do this by putting their views about what uncrewed vessels are permitted to do on the record. </p>
<p>In doing so, they will contribute to the development of customary international law. Making Australia’s position on these devices more transparent will help create a legal regime that can cope with technological change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223980/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon McKenzie has received funding from the Australian Government’s Next Generation Technologies Fund through Trusted Autonomous Systems, a Defence Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p>The law of the sea says warships must have a crew. What does that mean for naval drones?Simon McKenzie, Lecturer in Law, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213972024-02-16T13:19:06Z2024-02-16T13:19:06ZCult of the drone: At the two-year mark, UAVs have changed the face of war in Ukraine – but not outcomes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576091/original/file-20240215-26-prpedc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7727%2C5148&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Small, cheap, explosives-laden drones have become ubiquitous in the war in Ukraine.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/serviceman-of-separate-14th-regiment-of-armed-forces-of-news-photo/1772255302">Vitalii Nosach/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Unmanned aerial vehicles, or <a href="https://whateveryoneneedstoknow.com/display/10.1093/wentk/9780190235345.001.0001/isbn-9780190235345">drones</a>, have been central to the war in Ukraine. Some analysts claim that <a href="https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/04/how-the-conflict-in-ukraine-is-shaping-the-future-of-war">drones have reshaped war</a>, yielding not just tactical-level effects, but shaping operational and <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/lift-scaling-small-unmanned-aircraft-systems-and-autonomous-capabilities-us-department">strategic outcomes</a> as well.</p>
<p>It’s important to distinguish between these different levels of war. The tactical level of war refers to <a href="https://rdl.train.army.mil/catalog-ws/view/E5E76F31-897F-4E15-8531-3D0B1209DDA9-1533149400572/index.html">battlefield actions</a>, such as patrols or raids. The operational level of war characterizes a military’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/direction-of-war/1A168379FE39294F0C485954BD090A3D">synchronization of tactical actions</a> to achieve broader military objectives, such as destroying components of an adversary’s army. The strategic level of war relates to the way these military objectives <a href="https://global.oup.com/ukhe/product/modern-strategy-9780198782513">combine to secure political aims</a>, especially <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691049441/war-and-punishment">ending a war</a>. </p>
<p>In the war in Ukraine, what have drones accomplished at these three levels?</p>
<p>Mounting <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war-eric-schmidt">evidence</a>, including my own research as a military scholar who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=DEIRUlIAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">studies drone warfare</a>, suggests that drones have delivered some <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/02/05/cheap-racing-drones-offer-precision-warfare-at-scale">tactical and operational successes</a> for both <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-drones-are-changing-the-conflict-both-on-the-frontline-and-beyond-211460">Ukraine</a> and <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/how-the-west-can-match-russia-in-drone-innovation/">Russia</a>. Yet they are <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-russia-stopped-ukraines-momentum">strategically ineffective</a>. Despite its increasing use of drones, Ukraine has not <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/us-congress-support-ukraine-war/677256/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK367htDYafvnS2EPu7wS-8lA&%3Butm_source=copy-link&%3Butm_medium=social&%3Butm_campaign=share">dislodged Russia</a> from the <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375">Donbas region</a>, and Russia has not <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/26/ukraine-war-plan-biden-defense/">broken Ukraine’s will to resist</a>.</p>
<h2>Drone warfare in Ukraine</h2>
<p>The drone war in Ukraine is evolving in ways that differ from how other countries, especially the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Legitimacy-of-Drone-Warfare-Evaluating-Public-Perceptions/Lushenko-Raman/p/book/9781032614281">United States</a>, use UAVs. </p>
<p>First, the U.S. uses drones globally, and often in conflict zones that are not recognized by the United Nations or do not have U.S. troops on the ground. Unlike this pattern of “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/21/what-happens-now-us-counterterrorism-efforts-afghanistan/">over-the-horizon</a>” strikes, Ukraine and Russia use drones during an internationally recognized conflict that is bounded by their borders. </p>
<p>Second, the U.S. operates <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Drones-and-the-Future-of-Air-Warfare-The-Evolution-of-Remotely-Piloted/Kreuzer/p/book/9781138187122">armed and networked drones</a>, such as the <a href="https://www.ga-asi.com/remotely-piloted-aircraft/mq-9a">Reaper</a>, the world’s most advanced drone. Ukraine and Russia have adopted a <a href="https://theconversation.com/lesson-from-a-year-at-war-in-contrast-to-the-russians-ukrainians-master-a-mix-of-high-and-low-end-technology-on-the-battlefield-197853">broader scope</a> of low- and mid-tier drones.</p>
<p>Ukraine’s “<a href="https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/united24/">army of drones</a>” consists of <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-failing-to-procure-enough-drones-russia-war-soldiers/">cheaper</a> and easily weaponized drones, such as the Chinese-manufactured <a href="https://store.dji.com/">DJI</a>. Ukraine has also operated Turkish-manufactured <a href="https://baykartech.com/en/uav/bayraktar-tb2/">TB-2 Bayraktar</a> drones – the “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/948605a1-cf6c-40ea-b403-9a97d72be2cf">Toyota Corolla</a>” of drones. U.K.-based defense and security think tank Royal United Services Institute estimated that Ukraine <a href="https://rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/tanks-and-troops-out-open-ukraine-cant-go-10-minutes-without-being-spotted-and-fired-upon-ukrainian">loses 10,000 drones monthly</a> and within a year will have more drones than soldiers, implying it will <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war">acquire over 2 million drones</a>. To manage these capabilities, Ukraine recently <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-orders-creation-separate-military-force-drones-2024-02-06/">established a new branch</a> of the armed forces: the Unmanned Systems Forces. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a pair of hands hold a small video monitor displaying an aerial view of a landscape" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576083/original/file-20240215-30-gawab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Ukrainian serviceman of the Adam tactical group operates a drone to spot Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, on April 16, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/smoke-clouds-rising-above-a-struck-target-are-seen-on-a-news-photo/1251900729">Sergey Shestak/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Russia has responded by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-iran-agrees-ship-missiles-more-drones-russia-defying-west-sources-2022-10-18/">importing</a> Iranian-manufactured <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/09/27/iran-unveils-jet-powered-version-of-shahed-kamikaze-drone/?sh=63db47a95bdc">Shahed-136</a> attack <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/us/politics/ukraine-drones-iran-russia.html">drones</a>. It has also expanded the domestic production of drones, such as the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/us-mq-9-reaper-drones-compared-russias-orion-uav-1787774">Orion-10</a>, used for surveillance, and the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/the-lancet-kamikaze-drone-is-russia-s-most-effective-weapon-and-it-is-getting-deadlier/ar-AA1hZuZ0">Lancet</a>, used for attacks. Russia intends by 2025 to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/08/17/russia-iran-drone-shahed-alabuga/">manufacture at least 6,000 drones</a> modeled after the Shahed-136 at a new factory that spans 14 football fields, or nearly a mile. This is on top of the 100,000 low-tier drones that Russia <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war">procures monthly</a>.</p>
<p>Third, the U.S. uses drones to strike what it designates as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26351373">high-value targets</a>, including senior-level personnel in terrorist organizations. Ukraine and Russia use their drones for a broader set of tactical, operational and strategic purposes. Analysts often <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/lift-scaling-small-unmanned-aircraft-systems-and-autonomous-capabilities-us-department">conflate these three levels of war</a> to justify their <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war-eric-schmidt">claims that drones are reshaping conflict</a>, but the levels are distinct.</p>
<h2>Tactical effects</h2>
<p>Drones have had the <a href="https://www.warvector.com/p/11-reasons-fpvs-are-better-than-bombs?r=1n9gs4&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post">biggest impact at the tactical level</a> of war, which characterizes battles between Ukrainian and Russian forces.</p>
<p>Famously, Ukraine’s Aerorozvidka Air Reconnaissance Unit used drones to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv">interdict and block a massive Russian convoy</a> traveling from Chernobyl to Kyiv a month after Russia’s Feb. 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It did so by <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/16/ukraine-russia-war-drone-warfare-china/">destroying slow-moving vehicles</a> that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944">stretched nearly 50 miles</a>, causing Russia to abandon its advance. </p>
<p>Both militaries have also adopted low-tier “<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-drone-war-ukraine-transforming-conflict">first-person-view</a>” drones, such as the U.S.-manufactured <a href="https://www.avinc.com/lms/switchblade">Switchblade</a> or Russia’s Lancet, to attack tanks, armored personnel carriers and soldiers. Russian and Ukrainian forces are increasingly using these first-person–view drones, combined with other low-tier drones used for reconnaissance and targeting, to suppress opposing forces. Suppression – temporarily preventing an opposing force or weapon from carrying out its mission – is a role normally reserved for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-signs-11-bln-euro-contract-155mm-artillery-ammunition-2024-01-23/">artillery</a>. For example, suppressive fire can force ground troops to shelter in trenches or bunkers and prevent them from advancing across open ground.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BTgASmudYJw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ukrainian soldiers use first-person-view drones against Russian forces.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These gains have led Russia and Ukraine to develop ways of countering each other’s drones. For example, Russia has capitalized on its advanced electronic warfare capabilities to effectively <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/19/technology/russia-ukraine-electronic-warfare-drone-signals.html">jam the digital link</a> between Ukrainian operators and their drones. It also <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a477d3f1-8c7e-4520-83b0-572ad674c28e">spoofs this link</a> by creating a false signal that disorients Ukrainian drones, causing them to crash. </p>
<p>As a result, Ukrainian drone operators are experimenting with <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26425">ways to overcome jamming and spoofing</a>. This includes going “back to the future” by <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/back-trenches-technology-warfare">adopting terrain-based navigation</a>, though this is less reliable than satellite-based navigation. </p>
<h2>Operational limitations</h2>
<p>Drones have been less successful at the operational level of war, which is designed to integrate battles into campaigns that achieve broader military objectives. </p>
<p>In spring 2022, Ukraine used a TB-2, along with other capabilities, to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-flagship-mariupol.html">sink Russia’s flagship ship</a> — the Moskva — in the Black Sea. Since then, Ukrainian officials <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war">claim to have destroyed 15 additional Russian ships</a>, as well as damaged 12 more. </p>
<p>Ukraine also used sea drones – uncrewed water vessels – to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/europe/ukraine-crimea-bridge-drone-strike-video-intl/index.html">damage the Kerch Bridge</a>, connecting Crimea to mainland Russia, as well as attack <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/21/fire-breaks-out-at-russias-novatek-terminal-on-baltic-sea.html">fuel depots in the Baltic Sea</a> and near <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68046347">St. Petersburg</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CW6D3F9aBpg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Footage appearing to show the damaged Russian warship Moskva emerges.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though impressive, these and other operations have <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-23-2024">momentarily disrupted Russia’s use of the Black Sea</a> to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraines-september-grain-exports-down-51-ministry-says-2023-09-25/">blockade Ukraine’s grain shipments</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-invasion-war-military-0fd6866d7ee2aec12e51daa1e7c5c881">launch missiles against Ukraine</a> and <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4414486-the-black-sea-is-now-the-center-of-gravity-for-the-ukraine-war/">resupply its soldiers</a>.</p>
<p>The problem is that Ukraine lacks air superiority, which has encouraged its use of an army of drones to execute missions typically reserved for bombers, jets, attack helicopters and high-end drones.</p>
<p>Though Denmark and the Netherlands have promised to <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/will-f-16-fighter-jets-tip-war-in-ukraine-s-favor-/7234199.html">provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets</a>, thus replacing the country’s aging aircraft, they have not arrived. My <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americans-support-exporting-drones-to-ukraine-with-a-caveat/">research</a> also suggests that the U.S. will likely not sell its advanced Reaper drones to Ukraine, fearing crisis escalation with Russia. Further, these drones <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/46/4/130/111172/W">are vulnerable</a> to Russia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-game-of-numbers-how-air-defense-systems-work-and-why-ukraine-is-eager-for-more-protection-192487">integrated air defenses</a>. </p>
<p>Lack of air superiority exacerbates tactical challenges such as jamming and spoofing, while undermining Ukraine’s ability to <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-failing-to-procure-enough-drones-russia-war-soldiers/">deny freedom of maneuver</a> to Russia.</p>
<h2>Strategic myths</h2>
<p>Despite these tactical effects and limited operational gains, drones are <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-05-25/futureproofing-drones">strategically ineffective</a>. </p>
<p>Drones have not, and are not likely to, <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/evolution-not-revolution">shape the outcome of the war</a> in Ukraine. They have not allowed Ukraine to break its stalemate with Russia, nor have they encouraged Russia to end its occupation of Ukraine.</p>
<p>To the extent drones have been strategically consequential, the implications have been <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/lessons-from-the-meme-war-in-ukraine/">psychological</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drones-attack-bombardment-1e381d5e7fa71fb5549af354e3649681">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-downs-33-ukraine-launched-drones-over-russian-regions-2023-12-17/">Ukraine</a> use drones to terrorize each other’s citizens as well as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFRLeL25HyU">generate propaganda</a> to stiffen their own citizens’ resolve. Russian and Ukrainian leaders also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2023.2225783">perceive</a> drones as providing advantages, encouraging them to invest in these capabilities and perpetuate what I call the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2023.2178599">cult of the drone</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sqUi1RX97PQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A series of drone attacks hits Moscow.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lesson from Ukraine is that while drones have some value at the tactical and operational levels of war, they are strategically inconsequential. They are not a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/11/10/the-magic-bullet-drones-behind--azerbaijans-victory-over-armenia/">magic bullet</a>, offering a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rise-of-the-machines-drones-as-the-next-game-changer/">game-changing</a> capability to <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2020/12/we-need-a-new-international-accord-to-control-drone-proliferation/">decide the fate of nations</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, countries must rely on time-tested <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/evolution-of-strategy/236E4A66308C500151C59B6DC8F88C60">combined arms maneuver</a>, wherein they integrate personnel and weapons systems at a particular time and place to achieve a particular goal against an adversary. When these effects are aggregated over the course of a war, they expose vulnerabilities that militaries exploit, and often with the assistance of <a href="https://press.georgetown.edu/Book/Allies-That-Count">allies</a> and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/coalitions-of-convenience-9780199753796?cc=us&lang=en&">partners</a>.</p>
<p>Only then can countries <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/08/how-ukraines-counteroffensive-might-end.html">achieve military objectives</a> that secure <a href="https://www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/p/how-will-the-ukraine-war-end">political outcomes</a>, such as a negotiated settlement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Lushenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Drones have dominated images of the war in Ukraine, but an expert on drone warfare casts doubt on many of the grand claims made for the weapons.Paul Lushenko, Assistant Professor and Director of Special Operations, US Army War CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215102024-01-22T14:55:11Z2024-01-22T14:55:11ZDrone-zapping laser weapons now effective (and cheap) reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570470/original/file-20240121-38659-1vateu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C3%2C589%2C363&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dragonfire laser system test firing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">UK Ministry of Defence/wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A single burst of light is precisely aimed at a tiny drone flying at breakneck speed far in the distance. Instants later, the deactivated drone crashes into the sea. Not a sound made, no human casualties, no messy explosions. A lethal, multimillion-dollar drone cleanly taken out by a shot that cost less than a good bottle of wine.</p>
<p>If you think this is a scene from a sci-fi movie, think again. Only a few days ago, a team of UK scientists and engineers successfully <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/advanced-future-military-laser-achieves-uk-first">demonstrated that this is viable technology</a> that could find its way on to the battlefield in the next five to ten years. </p>
<p>DragonFire, a £30 million technology programme launched in 2017 and involving the UK government agency Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, missiles manufacturer MBDA, aerospace company Leonardo UK and defence technology company QinetiQ, has passed its first field test by shooting down several drones off the coast of Scotland using laser beams. </p>
<p>Drones are unmanned and semi-automatic aircrafts capable of delivering deadly damage with pinpoint accuracy. They feature <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-drones-are-changing-the-conflict-both-on-the-frontline-and-beyond-211460">heavily on modern battlefields</a>, including the Ukrainian war and the commercial naval routes in the Red Sea.</p>
<p>Shooting them down is not easy and typically involves firing missiles that cost up to £1 million each. While usually effective, defensive systems of this kind are costly and carry a significant risk of causing collateral damage; if a missile misses its target, it will eventually land somewhere and still explode.</p>
<p>However, you don’t have to cause a spectacular explosion to deactivate a drone; interfering with its control and navigation systems is more than enough. This is a job that a laser beam can do. Lasers are nothing but particularly bright and directional beams of light – a particular kind of <a href="https://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/toolbox/emspectrum1.html">electromagnetic radiation</a>. A sufficiently powerful laser can interfere with any electronic device, causing it to malfunction. </p>
<p>Compared to standard missiles, a high-power laser system has a range of strategic advantages. It is surprisingly cheap to operate. Running DragonFire for ten seconds costs the equivalent of using a heater for an hour (less than £10 per shot). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="DragonFire laser system." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570477/original/file-20240121-28-ilxzdp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">DragonFire laser system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.mbda-systems.com/press-releases/dragonfire-proving-trials-underway">MDBA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lasers are also free from the risk of collateral damage. Even if a laser misses its target, it will keep on propagating upwards and eventually be absorbed and scattered in the atmosphere. A laser is a beam of light, so it only propagates in straight lines, regardless of gravity. Also, they usually cover a small area of the order of a few millimetres – they are akin to a surgical intervention.</p>
<p>Lasers are therefore the defensive weapon par excellence; they can only be used to stop incoming threats, not cause significant harm. Lasers are also far less susceptible to countermeasures. By its very nature of being a beam of light, lasers travel at the fastest possible speed: the speed of light. Once a laser beam is fired, there is nothing else in nature that can catch up with it and neutralise it.</p>
<p>Laser beams have been used on the battlefield for quite some time. They are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914719312231">mainly used for</a> tracking targets, remote sensing and precision aiming. However, this is the first time that this type of technology has proven effective in a disruptive application. </p>
<h2>Challenges remain</h2>
<p>The reason it has taken so long to develop this weapon is that to disable a drone, you need a laser beam with significant intensity.</p>
<p>However, if the laser beam is too powerful, it can strongly interact with the air in the atmosphere, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/7/918">causing it to be absorbed or scattered</a>. One needs to strike the perfect balance of beam parameters, such as its <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/schwartz/files/lecture10-power.pdf">wavelength power</a> and shape, to make sure that it can propagate over long distances without significant degradation.</p>
<p>A laser beam will also be particularly sensitive to atmospheric conditions. The presence of fog, rain, or clouds <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/7/918">can significantly affect its performance</a>. </p>
<p>Due to the increasing threat posed by drones and subsonic missiles on a global scale, the UK defence ministry is now accelerating the development of this technology, with the expectation of having it fielded on war vessels in the next five to ten years. </p>
<p>Several technical and scientific issues still need to be addressed. For example, keeping the pointing of the laser stable on a moving platform (such as a cruiser in choppy waters) is not a simple task. It is like trying to hit the bullseye on a dartboard while standing on a balance board. However, this will only affect the accuracy of the weapon, without increasing the risk of collateral damage.</p>
<p>It will also be necessary to decouple the laser system performance from the weather conditions. Water droplets and air drafts can scatter or absorb the laser, reducing its effects. One would need to precisely factor in variable weather conditions in the preparation of the beam to be fired. While this is not an impossible task, it is technically difficult.</p>
<p>A structured training programme must also be established to ensure soldiers can efficiently operate such a high-tech system. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, these first tests demonstrate the viability and efficacy of this weapon, which promises to revolutionise modern warfare in the coming years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gianluca Sarri receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), InnovateUK, and Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL). </span></em></p>Operating the DragonFire laser system for ten seconds costs the equivalent of using a heater for an hour (less than £10 per shot).Gianluca Sarri, Professor at the School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193872024-01-22T13:24:01Z2024-01-22T13:24:01ZUntrained bystanders can administer drone-delivered naloxone, potentially saving lives of opioid overdose victims<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569922/original/file-20240117-23-cg30az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C3285%2C2198&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Drone deliveries would be particularly effective in places where emergency responders can't respond quickly.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/AAE/Aerogram/2023-2024/articles/28-narcan-delivery-by-drone">Vincent Walter/Purdue University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An onlooker – even one without prior training – can successfully administer <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/stopoverdose/naloxone/index.html">naloxone</a> to an overdose victim within about a minute of a drone delivering the lifesaving opioid reversal agent. That’s the key finding of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/11782218231211830">my team’s newly published study</a>.</p>
<p>Naloxone is also known by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fda-approval-of-over-the-counter-narcan-is-an-important-step-in-the-effort-to-combat-the-us-opioid-crisis-198497**">name brand Narcan</a>.</p>
<p>The study involved 17 participants responding to a simulated overdose. Each simulation included an untrained participant who portrayed a bystander, a box of naloxone delivered by drone, a mannequin as the overdose victim, and a panicked observer. The latter added a sense of urgency by continually shouting at the bystander throughout the simulation. </p>
<p>Via a video playing on a screen carried by the drone, the bystander received instructions on how to use the naloxone, which is administered as a nasal spray. We timed each participant on how long it took them to correctly give the medication during this crisis moment.</p>
<p>Our trial revealed that the average time for someone to remove the naloxone from the drone, view the video and administer the medication was 62 seconds. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tc-zNiwN4Zg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Simulation of the first demonstration flight of the drone’s delivery of naloxone to an overdose victim.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Such a scenario could be a lifesaver, particularly in places where an emergency medical services, or EMS, team is either not available or slower than a drone delivery. This includes not only densely populated cities with traffic congestion, but more remote areas. </p>
<p>The average response time for an ambulance in rural America is <a href="https://www.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hrsa/advisory-committees/rural/access-to-ems-rural-communities.pdf">14 minutes</a>. Nationally, the average ambulance response time <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamasurg.2017.2230">is seven minutes</a>. </p>
<p>Either way, it’s too late to help an opioid user who has stopped breathing. Brain damage occurs in about four minutes, and death in six. </p>
<p>But get a drone to an overdose victim within three minutes, and add one more minute for someone to remove and administer the drug, and there’s a chance to save their life and even prevent brain injury. </p>
<p>More than 75,000 people in the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/us/politics/drug-overdose-deaths.html">died in 2022 from an opioid overdose</a>. A drone network that could deliver naloxone fast enough to ensure quick administration of the drug could save thousands of lives every year.</p>
<p>The technology, although nascent, is here. Amazon is already using drones to <a href="https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/transportation/amazon-prime-air-drone-delivery-mk30-photos">deliver packages</a> in select U.S. cities and in other countries. Since 2011, drones have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.109-5541">delivering blood</a> to remote hospitals in Africa. </p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>Deciding where to distribute drone stations across an area is the next step. But if emergency service planners can first determine how long it takes to dispense the medication, informed by our study and others, then they will know how much time a drone has to get to the scene. </p>
<p>Our trial provides a template for future studies – and it comes closer than other controlled trials to simulating the surprise and anxiety experienced by a bystander during an overdose incident. </p>
<p>To the best of our knowledge, there are two previous human trials from the U.S. using drones for medical intervention. But both studies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.resuscitation.2020.10.006">used trained participants</a> who were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2020.05.103">familiar with the interventions</a> and did not require in-the-moment training on how to use the device.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>As this technology matures, engineering teams will continue to improve the drone’s design and its methods of instruction.</p>
<p>Replicating this study with a diverse population and larger groups of people will be crucial to confirm the time needed to administer the drug after the drone lands. </p>
<p>Another issue for future study will be addressing community acceptance of medical drones. As they fly over houses, drones still cause <a href="https://dronesurveyservices.com/drone-statistics/">fear and uncertainty</a> in many neighborhoods. Adequate education will be needed to prepare communities for these potentially life-saving deliveries.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219387/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Adams has received funding from the Substance Use and Mental Health Service Administration (SAMHSA), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the National Council of State Boards of Nursing (NCSBN), as well as internal University seed grants. </span></em></p>The study discovered that nonmedical personnel can provide the naloxone to an overdose victim in about one minute.Nicole Adams, Clinical Associate Professor of Nursing, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214452024-01-18T18:06:27Z2024-01-18T18:06:27ZUkraine recap: possibility of imminent Russian offensive focuses minds on Kyiv’s weapons shortages<p>As you’d expect, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been working the room at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. After a disappointing end to 2023 on the battlefield, with signs of battle fatigue among some of his key allies, Zelensky will be aware of the need to press his country’s case to so many world leaders. An estimated 60 heads of state and government are thought to have made the trip to Switzerland for this global forum, more than in previous years. </p>
<p>It was preceded by a meeting of more than 90 national security advisers, for whom a key agenda item was coming up with a viable peace plan for the conflict in Ukraine. Zelensky will also have been aware of the way the focus of global attention has moved to events in the Middle East, so a chance to get in front of his allies at this point is like gold dust. </p>
<p>There were positive noises from Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, as well as US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who emphasised Ukraine’s success in winning back more than half the territory Russia had occupied since February 2022, as well as – for now at least –
breaking Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea to allow grain ships in and out of its ports. Sullivan also praised the way Ukraine had managed to establish a viable defence industrial base. </p>
<p>The fruits of this were demonstrated this week when a hybrid “FrankenSAM” air defence system, which merges advanced western missiles with a Soviet-era launcher, successfully shot down an Iranian-made Shahed drone. Ukraine is also reported to be ramping up domestic production of Nato-compatible ammunition.</p>
<p>All of which will be doubly important if, as is now being widely reported, Russia is preparing to launch a major new ground offensive in the coming weeks. As Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko report, Russian forces have intensified their attacks on various sectors along the frontline in Ukraine, and have made some small territorial gains in the past week or so. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ISW map showing Ukraine and the main areas of fighting and control January 17 2024." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=847&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=847&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=847&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570144/original/file-20240118-29-s87ycg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The state of the war in Ukraine, January 17 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Institute for the Study of War</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wolff and Malyarenko, international security experts from the universities of Birmingham and Odesa respectively, highlight the extent to which shortages of weapons and ammunition are making it <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-talk-of-russian-spring-offensive-raises-fears-that-kyiv-is-ill-prepared-to-face-it-221142">increasingly difficult for Ukraine to hold the line</a>, let alone deliver the sort of battlefield breakthroughs that Kyiv – and its western allies – so desperately need. </p>
<p>Both sides are also short on manpower. Zelensky has said he wants to be able to field an additional 500,000 troops this year, and has introduced more stringent measures to clamp down on draft dodging.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Russia, which can currently rely on a steady supply of 30,000 extra troops a month, has also signalled it’s intentions to boost troop numbers by switching off the heating at many of its prisons – the better to encourage criminals to swap their jail sentences for a spell at the frontline.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-talk-of-russian-spring-offensive-raises-fears-that-kyiv-is-ill-prepared-to-face-it-221142">Ukraine war: talk of Russian spring offensive raises fears that Kyiv is ill-prepared to face it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Ukraine Recap weekly email newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449743/original/file-20220303-4351-1xhaozt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Since Vladimir Putin sent his war machine into Ukraine on February 24 2022, The Conversation has called upon some of the leading experts in international security, geopolitics and military tactics to help our readers <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/ukraine-12-months-at-war-134215?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">understand the big issues</a>. You can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">subscribe to our fortnightly recap</a> of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>War in the air</h2>
<p>Given all this, it’s easy to understand why Kyiv raced to announce what it claims as a major coup in the air war. The reported (though not yet confirmed) destruction of a Russian A-50 radar early-warning plane and an Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post on January 14 will seriously degrade Russia’s ability to provide real-time aerial intelligence to its troops on the ground, according to Matthew Powell, a specialist in aerial warfare at the University of Portsmouth.</p>
<p>Powell <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-kyiv-is-cock-a-hoop-about-shooting-down-two-russian-aircraft-221339">writes here</a> that Russia is reported to only have three A-50s in service. They cost an estimated US$330 million (£260 million) to replace. But it isn’t so much the expense of replacing the aircraft that will hamstring Russia. They are a very specialised piece of equipment and the 15-person crew takes years to train – so replacing that capability will be very difficult.</p>
<p>It’s been reported that the two aircraft were caught by a Patriot ground-based air defence system, of the kind provided by the US late in 2022. If correct, this will give Joe Biden’s administration a chance to parade the effectiveness of US military aid to recalcitrant members of Congress who continue to block the president’s US$110 million aid package for Ukraine.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-kyiv-is-cock-a-hoop-about-shooting-down-two-russian-aircraft-221339">Ukraine war: why Kyiv is cock-a-hoop about shooting down two Russian aircraft</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Death to Spies!</h2>
<p>Anyone who, like me, grew up on James Bond will be familiar with the sinister Soviet counter-espionage organisation, Smersh. Who can forget the end of From Russia With Love, when Bond has to fight for his life against the dastardly Rosa Klebb and her fiendish poison-tipped shoes?</p>
<p>In reality, Smersh was established by Josef Stalin during the second world war to trap German spies. The name Smersh (a blend of Russian words <em>Smert’ Shpionam</em> which translates into English as “death to spies”) was supposedly coined by Stalin himself.</p>
<p>As you’d expect, Smersh did a fair bit of spying on ordinary Russians, too. In all, an estimated 30,000 German “spies” within the Red Army and at least 594,000 other Soviet soldiers were arrested, most of whom would have been either executed or consigned to the gulags.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman's legs in a pair of shoes with aknife sticking out of the toe of the right foot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570185/original/file-20240118-27-vc4vp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570185/original/file-20240118-27-vc4vp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570185/original/file-20240118-27-vc4vp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570185/original/file-20240118-27-vc4vp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570185/original/file-20240118-27-vc4vp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570185/original/file-20240118-27-vc4vp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570185/original/file-20240118-27-vc4vp3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fiendish: Rosa Klebb’s poisoned shoes from the film From Russia with Love.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">United Artists</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mothballed in 1946, Smersh has now reportedly been reactivated by Vladimir Putin to root out any signs of dissent in Crimea or behind Russia’s lines in Ukraine. Marina Miron and Rod Thornton, intelligence and security experts at King’s College London, trace the organisation’s history and conclude from its revival that Putin considers the possibility of subversion and dissidence – or even plain old opposition to the war – to be a sufficient problem to warrant such a sinister move.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/smersh-why-putin-has-reinstated-stalins-notorious-and-much-feared-anti-spy-unit-220627">they conclude</a>, the resurrection of the name Smersh is “clearly the reaction of an increasingly oppressive state. Russian authorities, it can only be assumed, want to invoke fear again. This does not bode well for the Russian people.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/smersh-why-putin-has-reinstated-stalins-notorious-and-much-feared-anti-spy-unit-220627">Smersh: why Putin has reinstated Stalin's notorious and much-feared anti-spy unit</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>… and oppression for LGBTQ+ people</h2>
<p>Meanwhile Russia has moved to make life more difficult for another of Putin’s pet hates. In December 2023, a judgment of Russia’s supreme court banned what it referred to as the “LGBTQ+ movement” as an “extremist organisation”. </p>
<p>This effectively means that even identifying as LGBTQ+ in Russia is dangerous as it will lay a person open to charges of supporting extremism, <a href="https://theconversation.com/30-years-of-lgbtq-history-in-russia-from-decriminalisation-in-1993-to-extremist-status-in-2023-220569">writes Sergey Katsuba</a>, whose research at University College Dublin focuses on Russia’s growing authoritarianism and the persecution of sexual minorities in the Putin era.</p>
<p>Katsuba traces a 30-year cycle from 1993 – when, under pressure from the Council of Europe, Boris Yeltsin’s government decriminalised consensual sex between men – to December’s supreme court decision. He finds a strong correlation between Putin’s increasing authoritarianism and the demonisation of sexual minorities in Russia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/30-years-of-lgbtq-history-in-russia-from-decriminalisation-in-1993-to-extremist-status-in-2023-220569">30 years of LGBTQ+ history in Russia: from decriminalisation in 1993 to 'extremist' status in 2023</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Time to dig your bunker?</h2>
<p>There have recently been warnings emerging from a number sources, including the governments of Germany, Sweden and Estonia, that Putin is actively planning to extend his “special military operation” into a confrontation with Nato – something that everyone fears could quickly spiral out of control.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, as anyone following our coverage of the conflict in the Middle East will know, fears that the Gaza war could escalate into a regional conflagration pulling in Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US mount daily. And that’s before we factor in China’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric about Taiwan, and North Korea’s bloodcurdling threats against the South.</p>
<p>If you feel as if all the wars in the world are about to join hands, you would not be alone. Mark Lacy of Lancaster University, who is presently writing a book on the future of war, considers what is often referred to as the “threat horizon”. </p>
<p>He believes the situation is made more complicated by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-worlds-conflicts-spread-should-you-be-digging-a-bunker-how-to-think-about-the-future-of-war-221418">changing nature of conflict</a>. Economic warfare, cyberwar and the increasing influence of artificial intelligence in the way conflicts are waged mean that the next major war will probably look completely different to what we might expect, yet be equally as devastating. So, while you may not feel the need to start digging your bunker quite yet, it may be best to keep a spade handy just in case.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-worlds-conflicts-spread-should-you-be-digging-a-bunker-how-to-think-about-the-future-of-war-221418">As the world's conflicts spread, should you be digging a bunker? How to think about the future of war</a>
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A selection of our coverage of the war in Ukraine over the past fortnight.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200292024-01-09T00:48:20Z2024-01-09T00:48:20ZNew analysis unlocks the hidden meaning of 15,000-year-old rock art in Arnhem Land<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566518/original/file-20231219-27-o7yxd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C462%2C4449%2C2986&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ian Moffat</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rock art is one of the most intriguing records of the human past – it directly represents how our ancestors viewed their world. This provides a fundamentally different perspective compared to other archaeological items, such as stone artefacts.</p>
<p>Despite this beguiling potential, rock art research can be highly challenging. Different researchers can have contrasting interpretations of what the same image means. Sometimes they can’t even agree on what the rock art represents.</p>
<p>Given these difficulties, how can rock art contribute to understanding the past?</p>
<p>Our new research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12520-023-01917-y">published in Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences</a> uses an innovative approach to understand rock art in Arnhem Land in a fundamentally different way.</p>
<h2>A dramatic landscape change</h2>
<p>Our work concerns the Red Lily Lagoon area. This part of western Arnhem Land contains an internationally significant record of humanity’s past, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/buried-tools-and-pigments-tell-a-new-history-of-humans-in-australia-for-65-000-years-81021">Australia’s oldest archaeological site</a>.</p>
<p>It has also been the subject of dramatic landscape change as a result of sea levels rising significantly over the last 14,000 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remarkable-new-tech-has-revealed-the-ancient-landscape-of-arnhem-land-that-greeted-australias-first-peoples-201394">Remarkable new tech has revealed the ancient landscape of Arnhem Land that greeted Australia’s First Peoples</a>
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<p>The coastline moved from hundreds of kilometres away to right up against the cliffs in the Red Lily region, before retreating northwards about 50km to its current position. These changes would have had profound implications for people living in the area.</p>
<p>The complex landscape of sandstone cliffs and flat floodplains would have dramatically changed: from open savanna, to mudflat, to mangrove swamp. Eventually it would become the seasonally inundated freshwater wetlands that exist in the region today.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people touching a wall with rock art showing outlines of human hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566796/original/file-20231220-29-rrvdey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Arnhem Land hosts a stunning rock art record which continues to be maintained today.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ian Moffat</span></span>
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<h2>An astonishing rock art record</h2>
<p>Arnhem Land has an astonishing <a href="https://theconversation.com/threat-or-trading-partner-sailing-vessels-in-northwestern-arnhem-land-rock-art-reveal-different-attitudes-to-visitors-161586">rock art record</a> that continues to be maintained by Traditional Owners today.</p>
<p>The rock art in Arnhem Land can be categorised into a number of different styles, which change over millennia. These styles, including <a href="https://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/xray/hd_xray.htm">the well-known X-Ray style</a>, are thought to align with landscape changes driven by sea level rise. For example, saltwater animals such as fish appear in the rock art record when the sea had risen enough to impact this area.</p>
<p>To overcome the subjective nature of interpreting the artwork, archaeologists often turn to the landscape – to understand the placements of different types of art. </p>
<p>This approach usually assumes that the landscape today looks similar to when the art was painted. In Arnhem Land, where rock art has been estimated to be over 15,000 years old and the landscape has changed dramatically over this time, this isn’t true. </p>
<p>Our research used high-resolution elevation data, created from plane and drone surveys, to understand the placement of rock art sites throughout the landscape. We also mapped buried landscapes using imaging techniques to understand how the landscape has changed over time.</p>
<p>We used this data to understand how much of the landscape could be seen from each rock art site during each period of landscape evolution. We also examined what type of landscape was visible from each location. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded smiling man holding a large black and red device with wings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566230/original/file-20231218-19-xga6y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Drone used to survey rock art in the Red Lily Lagoon area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ian Moffat</span></span>
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<p>This is the first time this approach has been used in Arnhem Land. The results provide new insights into what inspired people to create rock art at different times in the past.</p>
<h2>Valuable mangroves</h2>
<p>Importantly, we found rock art production was most active, diverse in style, and covered the most area of the plateau during the period when mangroves completely covered the floodplains.</p>
<p>This may be because the mangroves provided abundant resources which sustained a large and stable human population. Or perhaps it was a response to the substantial contraction of available land caused by the sea level rise.</p>
<p>We also found that during the period when the sea level was rising, rock art was preferentially made in areas with long-distance views over areas of open woodland.</p>
<p>This may have been to facilitate hunting, or to allow careful management of landscapes during a period when many people would have been displaced from the north by sea level rise.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A panorama of a rocky landscape with a blue sky above it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566797/original/file-20231220-15-62df57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The complex mosaic of floodplain, plateau and escarpment country in the Red Lily Lagoon area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ian Moffat</span></span>
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<h2>Detailed landscapes provide deep insights</h2>
<p>Overall, our results show people in the past selected locations for rock art placement with intention. These rock art placements have the potential to tell us much more about the archaeology of Arnhem Land.</p>
<p>The locations where art is made have changed fundamentally over time. This reflects significant social and economic changes, which follow the landscape evolution over the long history of human occupation in western Arnhem Land.</p>
<p>Importantly, our results show that considering rock art through the lens of the modern landscape makes it impossible to make sense of the patterns of rock art placement and other archaeological records.</p>
<p>Our work shows more detailed models of the landscape directly surrounding archaeological sites can yield profound insights into past human activities, even those as difficult to interpret as the incredible artwork of Arnhem land.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/threat-or-trading-partner-sailing-vessels-in-northwestern-arnhem-land-rock-art-reveal-different-attitudes-to-visitors-161586">Threat or trading partner? Sailing vessels in northwestern Arnhem Land rock art reveal different attitudes to visitors</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jarrad Daniel Kowlessar receives funding from Flinders University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daryl Wesley receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Flinders University, the Museum and Art Gallery of the Northern Territory and National Geographic. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Moffat receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Flinders University, the Museum and Art Gallery of the Northern Territory and the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alfred Nayinggul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rock art directly represents how our ancestors saw the world. A new approach involving the history of the landscape brings fresh meaning to Arnhem Land rock art.Jarrad Daniel Kowlessar, Associate Lecturer, Flinders UniversityAlfred Nayinggul, Senior Erre Traditional Owner, Indigenous KnowledgeDaryl Wesley, Senior research fellow, Flinders UniversityIan Moffat, Associate Professor of Archaeological Science, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173422023-12-10T14:30:49Z2023-12-10T14:30:49ZTechnologies like artificial intelligence are changing our understanding of war<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560980/original/file-20231122-23-u5geo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=76%2C12%2C8410%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Technology is changing how wars are fought, but not the reasons for them.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/technologies-like-artificial-intelligence-are-changing-our-understanding-of-war" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely regarded as a disruptive technology because it has the potential to fundamentally alter social relationships. AI has affected <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1385">how people understand the world</a>, <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs.pdf">the jobs available in the workforce</a> and judgments of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0008125619867910">who merits employment</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2019.1575664">threatens society</a>.</p>
<p>Nowhere is this more apparent than in warfare, which is defined by social and technological processes. Technologies such as <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/Army-of-None/">autonomous weapon systems (AWS)</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/ca/this-is-how-they-tell-me-the-world-ends-9781635578492/">cyberweapons</a> have the potential to change conflicts and combat forever.</p>
<h2>Justifying warfare</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316104668">Acts of violence committed in war are often framed in virtuous terms</a>, with <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/moral-combat-michael-burleigh">justice and other morality motivations</a> used to legitimate armed conflict.</p>
<p>Yet “<a href="https://iep.utm.edu/justwar/">just wars</a>” require both clear definitions of who is a combatant and clear distinctions between war and peace. When such distinctions are eroded, this leads to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-19574-9">total wars</a> — all against all. Boundaries between civilians and soldiers and military and domestic infrastructure are blurred, making everyone and everything a legitimate target. We might believe that total wars are a thing of the past, involving <a href="https://www.pen-and-sword.co.uk/The-Mongol-Art-of-War-Kindle/p/5046">Mongolian hordes</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139052528">trench warfare</a>, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MTS.2023.3299315">recent discussions</a> of technology’s impact on warfare have breathed new life into the concept.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/B21mUKbH8K3","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>New battlefields, old conflicts</h2>
<p>Information has always been key to the successful development and implementation of military strategy and battlefield tactics, with <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA367662">information warfare</a> predating the information age. Knowing the position and temperament of adversaries plays a decisive role in <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/600221/the-art-of-war-by-sun-tzu-translated-and-introduced-by-peter-harris/9781101908006">predicting and manipulating their attitudes and behaviour</a>.</p>
<p>In our information age, we might assume that technological superiority in collecting and aggregating data will translate into significant changes in the balance of power. This hasn’t always been realized. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-4571(199305)44:4%3C204::AID-ASI3%3E3.0.CO;2-4">To be useful, data must be informative</a>. Patterns might remain obscured in noisy data, might be too novel to be recognized or might be misidentified.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="an unmanned drone looking like a slim small airplane among clouds" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561145/original/file-20231122-15-cg8dn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A concept futuristic design of an unmanned military reconnaissance drone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>The ongoing Israel-Hamas war provides a clear example. <a href="https://politicstoday.org/israels-mass-surveillance-of-palestinians-is-more-than-an-obsession/">Palestinians are some of the most surveilled people in the world</a>, with Israel pioneering and using <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/05/israel-opt-israeli-authorities-are-using-facial-recognition-technology-to-entrench-apartheid/">facial recognition technology</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010620956796">drone surveillance</a>. This surveillance was justified on the grounds that more military intelligence would reduce the possibility of an attack. </p>
<p>Hamas’s ability to inflict such a vicious, widespread co-ordinated attack on Oct. 7, 2023 cannot be attributed to superior technology. The Israeli army had more resources. Instead, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199341733.001.0001">failures of human intelligence</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/10/analysis-is-hamas-a-more-sophisticated-force-than-israel-imagined">successful concealment</a> provide the best explanation. </p>
<p>Hamas’s use of drone technology also provided a decisive advantage. Despite Israel’s earlier <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-says-it-knocked-out-hamas-drone-program/">destruction of the Hamas drone program</a>, <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2023/11/how-hamas-innovated-with-drones-to-operate-like-an-army/">the militant group’s use of drones in the October attack</a> was a critical determinant of its success. This demonstrates the resiliency of armed forces that use relatively inexpensive technologies.</p>
<h2>War without fighters</h2>
<p>Cyberattacks are another emerging tool in the arsenal. As non-lethal weapons, <a href="https://www.google.ca/books/edition/Behold_a_Pale_Farce/SwcCBAAAQBAJ">their threat and role in combat</a> continues to be a matter of debate: cyberattacks lead to disrupted or defaced websites, financial loss and compromised information. They rarely directly affect the physical world.</p>
<p>One notable exception is an attack <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html">attributed to the U.S. and Israel</a> known as <a href="https://www.wired.com/2014/11/countdown-to-zero-day-stuxnet/">the Stuxnet virus</a>. It successfully damaged Iran’s nuclear centrifuge equipment, setting the program back for years.</p>
<p>In contrast to traditional weapons, cyberweapons might best be seen as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26481911">force multipliers</a>. Battlefields have always relied on communication between commanders and units. Disrupting communication during a critical military operation can reduce the offensive and defensive capabilities of an adversary. However, as more automated weapons systems are adopted, these weapons could be turned against their own armies using cyberattacks.</p>
<p>The most significant concern is that these weapons will be used to attack <a href="https://www.resecurity.com/blog/article/ransomware-attacks-against-the-energy-sector-on-the-rise-nuclear-and-oil-gas-are-major-targets-2024">critical infrastructure</a>, the way <a href="https://www.mandiant.com/resources/blog/sandworm-disrupts-power-ukraine-operational-technology">Russia disrupted the power grid in winter during its war on Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p>Cyberspace itself is difficult for many to understand. The indirect relationship between action and consequences and the limited realism of data often results in organizations discounting the frequency and severity of these attacks. By <a href="https://www.skyboxsecurity.com/resources/report/cybersecurity-risk-underestimated-operational-technology-organizations/">overestimating their ability to effectively cope with such attacks</a>, they create vulnerabilities for themselves and the societies that they supply with their goods and services.</p>
<p>Like traditional weapons, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyx001">the precision of cyberweapons is key</a>. In the case of Stuxnet, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/stuxnet-infections-spread-to-115-countries/">the virus was not contained and it infected other computers</a>. Other malware can similarly have a widespread effect. </p>
<p>The 2009 Conficker virus <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/29/opinion/sunday/conficker-worm-ukraine.html">nearly consumed the internet</a> with its ability to autonomously adapt and replicate within systems. If such an approach were weaponized, such a virus could disrupt commerce, power grids and transportation systems. </p>
<h2>Wars of words</h2>
<p>Alone, AI-based weapons will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00431">not change the nature of warfare</a>. They might nevertheless change how we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/MTS.2023.3299315">perceive and describe conflicts</a>.</p>
<p>In the U.S., cyber operations have been described as “<a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/NewsStories/Article/Article/1847823/persistent-engagement-partnerships-top-cybercoms-priorities/">persistent engagements</a>,” framing attacks as an unrelenting conflict. In China, “<a href="https://www.iwp.edu/books/unrestricted-warfare/">unrestricted warfare</a>” suggests that all methods and targets are permissible. </p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/cash-strapped-north-korea-believed-to-be-stepping-up-cyberthefts-against-the-south">North Korea’s estimated 1.5 million cyberattacks on South Korea</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwan-government-faces-5-million-cyber-attacks-daily-official">attacks on Taiwan attributed to China</a>, fit this pattern. </p>
<p>The limited capabilities of cyberattacks are less concerning than physical attacks. China’s increased use of drones has <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3147997/regional-stability-risk-chinas-growing-use-military-drones">stoked tensions with neighbours, including Japan</a>. Previous drone incursions have been referred to as “<a href="https://dronecenter.bard.edu/act-war-drones-testing-china-japan-relations/">acts of war</a>,” with Taiwan <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-shoots-down-unidentified-drone-kinmen-2022-09-01/">shooting one down last year</a>. A rogue drone — or swarm — could unintentionally act as a catalyst for conflict in unstable geopolitical regions.</p>
<p>Yet, while state and non-state entities might act in belligerent manner or even <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/china-us-canada-taiwan-strait-1.6865130">take aggressive postures</a>, these actions are often simply gambits. Despite the widely publicized <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65169855">Chinese surveillance balloon that flew over Canada and the U.S.</a> last year, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/biden-and-xi-have-far-to-go-if-they-want-to-lift-cold-war-clouds">the recent meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping</a> illustrates that words don’t always translate into actions. And despite its threatening posturing, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/10/china-taiwan-invasion-reunification-risk/">China doesn’t yet have the capacity to invade Taiwan</a>. </p>
<p>Wars conducted solely or primarily with AI-enabled technologies will not likely happen in the near future. Humans will remain the primary combatants — and victims — of armed conflict.</p>
<p>While the rationales for wars will remain the same, we must consider how autonomous weapons and cyberweapons will change how conflicts will be perceived and fought. If they’re fought beyond the abilities of meaningful human control, we are placing our fates in the hands of machines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217342/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Richard Schoenherr received funding from Army Research Laboratories during his time as a Visiting Scholar at the Army Cyber Institute / Behavioral Science and Leadership Department at the US Military Academy (West Point). He has worked as a consultant for the DGMPRA, Department of National Defence on the impact of stress on ethical decision-making.</span></em></p>Advances in technology are deployed in war, changing the ways that wars are both fought and communicated.Jordan Richard Schoenherr, Assistant Professor, Psychology, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182672023-11-30T13:35:54Z2023-11-30T13:35:54ZDrone fishing in South Africa is a danger to sharks and may be unfair to other fishers – study<p>“Drone fishing” is a relatively recent innovation in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. Some recreational anglers are using personal drones to fly baited lines into hard-to-reach areas of water, or to look for good fishing areas. </p>
<p>Recreational fishing is a popular sport and hobby in South Africa, which has a 2,850km shoreline. The most recent estimate of the number of marine shore based anglers is about <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fme.12515">400,000</a>. </p>
<p>The group of researchers I’m part of, who study linefish (fish caught using hook and line) became aware over the past 10 years or so of the increased practice of drone fishing. This was in part thanks to recreational fishers approaching us with their concerns. </p>
<p>One of the concerns is that increases in the numbers of enthusiastic anglers and their ability to catch fish might have significant effects on fish stocks and other animals (such as birds) in coastal zones. Another is that drone fishing might intensify conflict between fisher groups competing for the same species. Aside from recreation, linefishing provides the primary source of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2989/1814232X.2020.1824738">protein and income</a> for about 2,730 commercial fishers, 2,400 small-scale boat fishers and 30,000 small-scale shore-based fishers in South Africa. </p>
<p>We agreed the practice should be investigated, but faced a challenge: there was very little monitoring going on to provide data. </p>
<p>So we took an unconventional approach to our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-021-01578-y#Sec11">study</a>. We used publicly available online monitoring to estimate the growing interest, global extent and catch composition of drone fishing. This showed us that there had been a big (357%) spike in interest in drone fishing in 2016. There were also worrying indications of a threat to species of conservation concern in South Africa. </p>
<p>We then consulted commercial drone operators, legal researchers and others to get a more holistic view. Drone fishing has economic, political, legal, ecological and physiological implications. Based on this we made some recommendations for further research and monitoring, and shared them with fishing authorities.</p>
<p>The South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment then released a <a href="https://www.dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/legislations/publicnotices/25february2022motorisedequipment_recreationalangling.pdf">public notice</a> warning recreational anglers that the use of drones and other electronic devices is deemed illegal under the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/marine-living-resources-act-27-may-1998-0000">South African Marine Living Resources Act</a>.</p>
<p>The fishing drone companies that had already emerged are now struggling to survive. They have taken the department to <a href="https://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAGPPHC/2022/250.html">court</a> seeking clarity on the legality of using drones in fishing. The judgement on this case, which is currently in the appeal court, will no doubt pave the way for how drone fishing is managed in South Africa in the future.</p>
<h2>Innovative research methods</h2>
<p>Largely because we were house-bound during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic we gathered most of our data via the internet. We surveyed social media platforms for drone-fishing dedicated groups and used Google Trends to track internet searches for “drone fishing”.</p>
<p>Results indicated a 357% spike in interest in 2016, after the release of a popular YouTube <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sdUZqOoAq4">video</a> of an angler catching a large longfin tuna from an Australian beach using a drone. The search volume increased to about 3,600 monthly searches from an average of about 1,400 before the peak. “Drone fishing” Facebook groups had over 17,000 members and 38,700 videos with titles including the term “drone fishing” had been uploaded. </p>
<p>The online interest was mostly in three countries: New Zealand, South Africa and Australia. </p>
<p>To get an idea of which fish species were targeted, we then watched 100 YouTube videos posted by drone fishers in those three countries. In both New Zealand and Australia, the most frequently observed catch was red snapper, which is not a species of direct conservation concern. In South Africa, though, sharks made up the majority (97%) of viewed catches, many of which are of severe conservation concern, such as the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/3852/2872747">dusky shark</a>. </p>
<h2>Impacts of drone fishing</h2>
<p>Having established interest in and the presence of drone fishing in South Africa, we sought to consider the issue holistically – its impact on:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>targeted fish and their habitats</p></li>
<li><p>other animals in the coastal zone</p></li>
<li><p>other people using the coastal zone.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Drones with cameras allow anglers to <a href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cz8sBz7ihYb/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng%3D%3D">identify</a> ideal fishing habitats far from the shore. Areas that anglers couldn’t reach before are now open to exploitation. Even fish that are released are less likely to survive when caught further offshore. A large fish hooked hundreds of metres offshore is likely to experience <a href="https://www.int-res.com/articles/meps2013/496/m496p207.pdf?">extreme exhaustion and physiological disturbance</a> and may be consumed by other predators. </p>
<p>The potential loss of fishing tackle by drone anglers is also a concern. It is common to lose tackle, either when it gets stuck in rocky habitats or while fighting large fish such as sharks. Both scenarios may result in hundreds of metres of fishing line remaining in the ocean. In addition to polluting the marine environment, such debris threatens to entangle birds, marine mammals and turtles. </p>
<p>In South Africa, drone fishing is only accessible to affluent anglers. Their increased catches might lead to conflict with fishers who depend on their catch for food or income.</p>
<p>It’s also possible that sharing live information on fishing conditions via the internet could add to concerns about the privacy of other public beach users.</p>
<p>Our 2021 <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-021-01578-y#Sec11">paper</a> noted that at the time, there were no specific regulations relating to drone fishing in any country, including South Africa. We drew attention to legislation that could be used indirectly to regulate the practice. </p>
<h2>Regulation and management of fisheries</h2>
<p>Three of the paper’s co-authors were part of a working group for the South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. We shared the paper with the department and in 2022, it took concrete action on this issue for the first time. </p>
<p>The department released a <a href="https://www.dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/legislations/publicnotices/25february2022motorisedequipment_recreationalangling.pdf">public notice</a> which explicitly prohibits drones and other remotely operated vehicles for angling. </p>
<p>Companies that custom build fishing drones were granted <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/use-motorised-equipment-recreational-angling-drones-and-remotely-operated-devices-and-or">leave to appeal</a> the original court ruling on their application to unban drone fishing. The appeal has not yet been heard.</p>
<p>We hope the end result will be better monitoring and management of South African recreational fishery, so that resources are available to those who need them the most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Claus Winkler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Increased interest in recreational fishing with drones has led to concern about its environmental and social impact.Alexander Claus Winkler, Research Associate, Rhodes UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153382023-10-11T19:02:28Z2023-10-11T19:02:28ZHow drone submarines are turning the seabed into a future battlefield<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553149/original/file-20231011-21-odd5ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C17%2C2982%2C1666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2019-11-13">DARPA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A 12-tonne fishing boat weighs anchor three kilometres off the port of Adelaide. A small crew huddles over a miniature submarine, activates the controls, primes the explosives, and releases it into the water. The underwater drone uses sensors and sonar to navigate towards its pre-programmed target: the single, narrow port channel responsible for the state’s core fuel supply …</em></p>
<p>You can guess the rest. A blockage, an accident, an explosion – any could be catastrophic for Australia, a country that conducts <a href="https://navalinstitute.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Protecting-Australian-Maritime-Trade-Report-March-2020.pdf">99% of trade by sea</a> and imports more than 90% of its fuel.</p>
<p>As drone submarines or “uncrewed underwater vehicles” (UUVs) become cheaper, more common and more sophisticated, Australia’s 34,000km of coastline will face a significant future threat.</p>
<p>What can be done? Our <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.au/research/centres-collaborations/cyber-security-research-innovation/autonomous-uncrewed-underwater-vehicles">assessment</a> – validated through workshops with experts from across Australia – shows the same technologies can aid our maritime security, if we build them into our planning from now on. </p>
<h2>Seabed warfare</h2>
<p>Australia is not alone in its rising concern for submarine security. In 2022, France launched its <a href="https://www.archives.defense.gouv.fr/content/download/636001/10511909/file/20220214_FRENCH%20SEABED%20STRATEGY.pdf">Seabed Warfare Strategy</a> to address autonomous underwater maritime threats. In February 2023, NATO established an <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_211919.htm">Undersea Infrastructure Coordination Cell</a> in response to the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas line in September 2022.</p>
<p>The war in Ukraine has seen relatively small, cheap aerial drones play an outsized role. At a smaller scale, <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/ukrainian-sea-drone-attack-what-are-they-how-do-they-impact-war-explainer/7aa4d632-a8aa-4686-bc6b-a7aacfbe646c">underwater drones</a> have also enabled Ukraine to conduct asymmetric attacks on Russian forces.</p>
<p>Current drones can be used in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, mine countermeasures, antisubmarine warfare, electronic warfare, underwater sensor grid development and special operations, among other things. </p>
<p>However, their capabilities are likely to expand. China’s Haidou-1 project dived to a <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3152076/chinas-haidou-1-reaches-new-depths-exploring-pacific-ocean-floor">record depth</a> of 10,908 metres. </p>
<p>A Chinese underwater glider, the Haiyan, holds the drone sub endurance record with a 3,600km voyage over 141 days across the South China Sea. Russia boasts of having a prototype nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System">undersea drone</a>, although <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2023/06/one-nuclear-armed-poseidon-torpedo-could-decimate-a-coastal-city-russia-wants-30-of-them/">some analysts doubt</a> it really exists.</p>
<p>Nations are also developing broader programs to control underwater sea domains. </p>
<p>For instance, the United States’ proposed Advanced Undersea Warfare System envisions a network of fixed submarine stations able to deploy defensive and offensive drones. In the South China Sea, China is developing an “<a href="https://maritimeindia.org/chinas-undersea-great-wall-project-implications/">Underwater Great Wall</a>” of ships, bases and drone (both at surface level and beneath) to monitor the area and make it difficult for foreign navies to operate in international waters.</p>
<h2>A new age of war at sea?</h2>
<p>Some analysts argue these developments amount to the dawn of a “<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/11/the-age-of-uncrewed-surface-vessels.html">new age of naval warfare</a>”. Others suggest autonomous maritime systems, as they grow cheaper and more effective, may become preferred over crewed vehicles for national defence: by <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-how-uncrewed-boats-are-changing-the-way-wars-are-fought-at-sea-201606">one estimate</a>, uncrewed vessels may make up more than half of the US naval fleet by 2052.</p>
<p>The advent of sea drones may also encourage the further growth of hybrid or “grey zone” approaches to conflict, which avoid outright warfare, keep casualties low, and can inflict heavy costs on enemies. In this context, uncrewed marine vessels may offer states a deniable way to carry out aggressive actions to advance their aims without crossing the threshold of war. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-how-uncrewed-boats-are-changing-the-way-wars-are-fought-at-sea-201606">Ukraine: how uncrewed boats are changing the way wars are fought at sea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Put differently, drone submarines may lend themselves to creating apparent accidents and other actions that can’t be pinned on their instigators. It is worth quoting the <a href="https://www.archives.defense.gouv.fr/content/download/636001/10511909/file/20220214_FRENCH%20SEABED%20STRATEGY.pdf">French Seabed Warfare Strategy</a> on this point:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>an attack on the underwater part of submarine cables is a potential cause of action, with possibilities ranging from a “convenient” accident in a coastal area, to deliberate military action. In this regard, the intrinsic features of the seabed make it the ideal theatre for non-attributable actions in “grey zones”.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The road ahead for Australia</h2>
<p>Our <a href="http://rmit.edu.au/research/centres-collaborations/cyber-security-research-innovation/autonomous-uncrewed-underwater-vehicles">new research</a> examined the threat to Australia’s trade posed by autonomous, uncrewed underwater vehicles. </p>
<p>With colleagues at the RMIT Centre for Cyber Security Research and Innovation, Charles Darwin University, and WiseLaw, we ran workshops with people from government, the Royal Australian Navy, Defence, industry and academia. We found a growing tension between efforts to protect ocean-borne trade and critical undersea infrastructure today, and more forward-looking strategies aimed at developing the next generation of maritime defence.</p>
<p>Under the AUKUS security pact, Australia has engaged the United Kingdom and the US to buy and build nuclear-powered submarines, and seeks to acquire and develop new systems “with additional undersea capabilities”. This is a good start, but the scale of the purchases has raised <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-14/nuclear-submarine-aukus-how-cost-impact-military-capability/102089496">concerns</a> they will become all-consuming for Australia’s military.</p>
<p>Australia also engages in exercises such as <a href="https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/sea/navy-to-acquire-bluebottle-usvs">Autonomous Warrior</a> to test new and emerging systems in maritime defence. However, these exercises under-examine threats to maritime trade that underwater drones are likely to produce in the future. </p>
<p>One result that emerged from our workshops is that mines are seen as an emerging challenge. Loitering drones with explosives – which could even be commercially available vessels carrying improvised explosives – could hold up commercial ports and traffic, bottle up naval assets, or disrupt maritime shipping routes. This would cause delays, loss of revenue, and increased insurance premiums. </p>
<p>As “set and forget” weapons, mines have an outsized impact as they can cause great damage for a low cost. And they are difficult and costly to find and neutralise.</p>
<p>For the time being, Australia is largely protected from the threat of underwater drones by distance. Current battery and communication technology mean drones would need to be deployed from relatively nearby, and Australia’s maritime environments would make operation difficult.</p>
<p>However, the technology is advancing quickly. The time available for the Australian Department of Defence to address the threat of underwater uncrewed vehicles is shrinking. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article draws upon research funded under the Strategic Policy Grants Program run by the Department of Defence. The Strategic Policy Grants Program is an open and competitive mechanism for Defence to support independent research, events and activities. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Australian Government or Defence.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215338/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Aerial drones are already transforming warfare. Underwater drones are next.Adam Bartley, Postdoctoral Fellow, RMIT Centre for Cyber Security Research and Innovation, RMIT UniversityMatthew Warren, Director, RMIT University Centre for Cyber Security Research and Innovation, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2152412023-10-09T00:35:35Z2023-10-09T00:35:35ZThe unprecedented attack against Israel by Hamas included precise armed drones and thousands of rockets<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-unprecedented-attack-against-israel-by-hamas-included-precise-armed-drones-and-thousands-of-rockets" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Last Friday, Israeli newspapers were filled with stories about the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, also called the October War. In 1973, the country had nearly been defeated by co-ordinated surprise attacks from its Arab neighbors. Never again, people thought.</p>
<p>So, Israelis were especially shocked to be awakened Saturday morning by rocket barrages and gunfire in the streets. Hamas militants from Gaza had launched a smaller but equally <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-765254">co-ordinated surprise attack</a>. It came by land, air <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/navy-says-it-killed-dozens-of-terrorists-attempting-to-infiltrate-from-sea/">and sea</a>.</p>
<p>The fighting <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/what-happened-in-israel-a-breakdown-of-how-the-hamas-attack-unfolded">began around 6:30 that morning</a>, when Hamas started firing rockets. But unlike many previous conflicts, this time it also attacked on the ground.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gazas-enhanced-rocket-technology-challenges-israels-defences-160853">Gaza's enhanced rocket technology challenges Israel's defences</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Gunfights and airstrikes</h2>
<p>While the rocketry was still underway, Hamas blasted numerous holes in the security fences between Israel and Gaza. That let hundreds of armed militants pour across the border and quickly spread out across southern Israel.</p>
<p>These forces were small by military standards, but quickly overwhelmed the local border guards and police forces. The militants overran an army base, captured a police station and attacked several dozen communities.</p>
<p>The results were bloody. By Sunday, Israel had reported more than <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/death-toll-from-hamas-onslaught-passes-600-over-100-kidnapped-as-israel-strikes-gaza/">700 deaths and 2,200 injuries</a>, mostly civilians. Another 100 people were taken back to Gaza as hostages. Some of the victims were reportedly citizens of other countries, including Germany, Thailand, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/global-affairs-says-it-is-aware-of-reports-of-canadian-killed-amid-attack-on-israel-1.6594141">Canada</a> and the United States.</p>
<p>Israel’s army seemed largely absent from these initial fights. But its air force started bombing Gaza within hours, in Operation “Swords of Iron.” A day after the conflict started, the Palestinians reported <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/10/8/intense-battles-as-israel-declares-state-of-war">370 deaths and thousands of injuries</a> from the airstrikes.</p>
<p>The bloody ground attacks shocked Israel. But there were also surprises overhead.</p>
<h2>Massed rockets</h2>
<p>Militants in Gaza have been firing rockets toward Israel every year since 2005. I’ve <a href="https://brocku.ca/goodman/faculty-research/faculty-directory/michael-armstrong/">researched rocket defences and missile combat</a> for years, but the intensity of the Hamas attack this time was astounding. Israel counted more than 2,200 incoming rockets on Saturday morning alone; the total exceeded 2,500 by the day’s end.</p>
<p>That’s nearly quadruple the previous single-day record of 670 rockets. That was the number fired during the most intense day of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gazas-enhanced-rocket-technology-challenges-israels-defences-160853">2021’s Guardian of the Walls</a> operation.</p>
<p>The barrage wasn’t restricted to border areas. It reached across southern and central Israel, including the suburbs of Tel Aviv. A hospital and several other buildings were hit. And about a dozen people died, including <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/always-the-first-to-defend-the-israelis-slain-in-hamass-surprise-onslaught/">several at a Bedouin village</a> that had no defences.</p>
<p>The toll was relatively low partly because the rockets are inaccurate: most land in empty fields. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-missiles-fly-a-look-at-israels-iron-dome-interceptor-94959">Iron Dome interceptor systems</a> typically shoot down most of the rest. Failing that, many homes and communities have <a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-rocket-experience-shows-bomb-shelters-matter-as-much-as-interceptors-96402">bomb shelters</a> where civilians can take cover.</p>
<p>Because the Iron Dome systems are so effective, they would be valuable for Hamas to destroy. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1309">rockets are too inaccurate</a> to hit such small targets.</p>
<p>However, if the militants roaming southern Israel on Saturday had found a system deployed there, they could easily have destroyed it. For example, there is often a system stationed near Sderot, one of the towns that was attacked.</p>
<p>There is another way to destroy small, high value targets: attack them with drones.</p>
<h2>Drones in Israel and Ukraine</h2>
<p>This seems to be the first conflict where Hamas has successfully used armed drones. Some are quadcopters that operators fly via remote control. They can precisely drop explosives onto small targets — like an Iron Dome system. Videos online show them attacking people, a watchtower and <a href="https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710725094723469428">a tank</a>.</p>
<p>Ukraine has effectively used similar quadcopters against Russian military targets. They sometimes drop explosives right down an armoured vehicle’s open hatch.</p>
<p>Other Gazan drones resemble toy airplanes. They can fly considerable distances and then explode wherever they land.</p>
<p>Those drones are much like the ones Russia uses to attack Ukrainian cities. And both the Gazan and Russian drones resemble those made by Iran. That might not be co-incidental. <a href="https://theconversation.com/iran-flexes-its-missile-muscle-with-terrible-consequences-129669">Iran</a> is known to have supported Gaza militants in the past. And it has admitted selling some drones to Russia.</p>
<p>There’s another interesting connection between the Ukrainian and Israeli conflicts. Israel has provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but no weapons. Most notably, it has refused <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraines-small-missiles-are-challenging-a-big-invader-178718">Ukraine’s repeated requests for an Iron Dome system</a>.</p>
<p>Hamas also sent several dozen militants across the border <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-765254">on powered hang-gliders</a>. Their lightweight construction apparently let them avoid radar detection.</p>
<h2>Widening conflict?</h2>
<p>On Sunday, the Israeli army gradually regained control of most of its territory, while the air force kept bombing Gaza. Meanwhile, the rocket fire from Gaza slowed to a trickle.</p>
<p>However, a different rocket threat also appeared. Hezbollah militants in Lebanon <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-fires-mortars-at-israel-idf-strike-hits-tent-on-lebanon-border-in-response/">fired several missiles or shells at an Israeli military post</a> in the Golan Heights, on Israel’s northern border. It seemed to be a warning: if Israel retaliated against Gaza, Hezbollah might fire thousands of rockets and missiles into northern Israel.</p>
<p>But the Israeli government, not surprisingly, seems intent on retaliation. It officially declared war and called up its military reserves. A massive invasion of Gaza seems imminent.</p>
<p>So, while civilians in both Israel and Gaza are already mourning the deaths of hundreds, there is likely more bloodshed to come.</p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Armstrong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The bloody ground attacks by Hamas in Israel caused the biggest shock. But the unprecedented scale of rocketry and successful use of armed drones contributed to the surprise.Michael J. Armstrong, Associate Professor, Operations Research, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144422023-10-03T14:42:00Z2023-10-03T14:42:00ZFrance’s decision to leave Niger was a bad move: three reasons why<p>After about two months of wrangling between France and the new military regime in Niger, President Emmanuel Macron finally <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/president-macron-says-france-will-pull-ambassador-and-troops-out-of-niger-by-end-of-the-year-12969438">decided</a>, on 24 September, to withdraw the French ambassador and pull out French military forces from Niger. </p>
<p>This was a U-turn. Only four weeks earlier, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230831-niger-junta-revokes-french-ambassador-s-diplomatic-immunity-orders-his-expulsion">Macron had refused to follow</a> the instructions of the putschists who’d ordered the ambassador and French forces to leave the country. He argued that he did not <a href="https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/Niger-France-does-not-recognize-any-legitimacy-to-the-declarations-of-the-military-junta-in-power/">recognise</a> the new junta, which took power on 26 July, and insisted that his forces would remain in the country. </p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://www.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/staff/dr-olayinka-ajala/">politics and international relations</a>, I have been exploring the security situation and the rise of insurgency in the Sahel for over a decade. In my view, France’s actions have created unnecessary uncertainty in a region already beset by insecurity from increasing jihadist activities, as well as six successful coups in the last three years. </p>
<p>In my opinion, France has made a strategic mistake. Though it did not recognise the junta, it should have maintained communication, especially after falling out with other former colonies such as <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/5/how-malis-military-fell-out-with-its-french-ally">Mali</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-faso-marks-official-end-french-military-operations-its-soil-2023-02-19/">Burkina Faso</a>. </p>
<p>The other prominent external actor in Niger was the US. The US decided to negotiate with the junta. Unlike France, it did not label the military takeover a coup d'etat. The US <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/u-s-resumes-counterterrorism-drone-operations-from-niger-68e8c903">resumed operations</a> in some of its bases in Niger, having secured agreement from the junta. </p>
<p>Macron’s actions could have three negative outcomes for the region. It will hurt the fight against terrorism. It also opens the door to greater influence of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60947877">Wagner</a>, the Russian-backed mercenary group. And finally it has implications for Europe’s migrant crisis.</p>
<h2>The fight against terrorism</h2>
<p>Niger plays a significant role in the security architecture of the Sahel. The country is actively involved in and contributes to security organisations such as the <a href="https://www.interpol.int/en/Crimes/Terrorism/Counter-terrorism-projects/G5-Sahel">G5 Sahel</a> and the <a href="https://isij.eu/article/interorganizational-cooperation-and-fight-against-terrorism-west-africa-and-sahel">Multinational Joint Task Force</a>. </p>
<p>These organisations are involved in the fight against terrorism in the region. Apart from contributing funds to both organisations, especially the G5 Sahel, France is also involved in training Nigerien forces and flying reconnaissance and attack drones, actively combating terrorists in the region.</p>
<p>The decision by France to pull out of Niger will have an impact on counter terrorism operations in the region. France has been involved there for a long time and has soldiers who thoroughly understand the region. Losing these officers will create a gap that Niger might struggle to fill in the short term. </p>
<p>Like France, the US also has a large military presence in Niger, where it operates its largest drone base in Africa. I have previously analysed the <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-journal/us-drone-base-agadez-security-threat-niger">importance and security implications</a> of the drone base to the region. </p>
<p>For its part, the EU also contributes to the security of the region by providing <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_768">funding</a> for the G5 Sahel and Multinational Joint Task Force. This momentum must be sustained in order not to lose what has already been achieved in the form of an established security architecture. </p>
<p>The withdrawal of French forces will negatively affect the morale of the soldiers in the security alliance and embolden insurgent groups. An <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66922754">increase in terrorist attacks</a> has been recorded since the coup. </p>
<h2>Russia versus the US</h2>
<p>The terms of the agreement between the US and the military junta were not published. Nevertheless, it is not unreasonable to assume that one of Washington’s reasons for making sure it remained in Niger was the fear that it might lose the country to Russia. </p>
<p>In Mali, the military junta replaced French troops with Wagner forces. Since 2022, Russia <a href="https://www.unav.edu/en/web/global-affairs/a-change-in-mali-the-french-out-wagner-in">has gained influence through the Wagner Group</a> after the exit of France.</p>
<p>Washington would want to avoid losing further ground to Russian influence. With the Wagner group already present in Mali, there is suspicion that the <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/09/17/mali-niger-burkina-faso-sign-mutual-defence-pact//">recently signed military pact</a> between the three countries (Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso) could expand the presence of the group. </p>
<p>In addition, the US has invested heavily in the Sahel, especially in Niger. In the last decade the US has invested hundreds of millions of dollars on security infrastructure, including a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">drone base in Agadez</a> (central Niger). </p>
<p>The US understands the role “ungoverned spaces” in the Sahel could play in breeding terrorism. Such was the case of the regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan where Al-Qaeda launched attacks against the US and its western allies. </p>
<h2>What it means for migration</h2>
<p>Other major players in Niger such as the European Union also cannot afford to follow the path of France. The EU needs stability in Niger to stem trafficking and avoid another humanitarian catastrophe as seen in 2015-16. Europe witnessed the highest number of migrants <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/niger/asylum-seekers-refugees-and-migration-niger-may-2015">transiting through Niger</a> and Libya into Europe during this period.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that the civilian regimes of presidents <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mahamadou-Issoufou">Mahamadou Issoufou</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/what-you-need-know-about-nigers-ousted-president-2023-08-14/">Mohamed Bazoum</a> contributed to the reduction in the flow of migrants through Niger to Libya. While serving as interior minister, Bazoum was instrumental in passing a law against people smuggling through Niger. The law was championed by Bazoum but also believed to have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/23/niger-observers-link-coup-to-president-mohamed-bazoum-support-of-eu-migration-policies-people-smuggling">contributed to his ousting</a> by the military. The junta could threaten to cancel the agreement and look the other way as migrants again transition through Niger into the EU. </p>
<p>The EU needs to maintain a strong diplomatic channel with the junta to maintain stability, prevent an increase in smuggling and continue efforts towards the return of democratic order. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>While I understand that increased diplomacy with the junta cements its authority, I think foreign powers should accept that there is a government in Niger that has some degree of popularity among the citizens. Frozen channels of diplomacy must be reactivated to prevent a total collapse of the Sahel’s security architecture and in order to achieve a quick transition to democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>France’s withdrawal from Niger could hurt the regional fight against terrorism, create an opportunity for Wagner’s influence and increase Europe’s migrant crisis.Olayinka Ajala, Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126652023-08-31T16:35:16Z2023-08-31T16:35:16ZUkraine recap: fallout from death of Yevgeny Prigozhin will be felt far beyond Moscow<p>Where were you when you heard that Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aircraft had crashed and he was presumed dead? For Ukraine watchers it was something of a surreal JFK moment. And, like the Zapruder tape, the video footage of the Russian mercenary group commander’s Embraer Legacy 600 private jet falling out of the sky is hard to forget.</p>
<p>Within minutes of the visuals emerging, journalists and other commentators were scrambling to reach conclusions: was it a bomb on board? Had the aircraft been shot from the sky? The Wagner Group boss had been travelling with colleagues from Moscow to St Petersburg: had he met with Vladimir Putin? Had they buried the hatchet over his aborted “mutiny” in June? Wasn’t he supposed to be with his troops in Belarus? What about that video of him in Africa just days before? So many questions.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private jet crashes.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Many questions remain. The Kremlin’s version of the crash was that it was just that: a crash. It took four days for official confirmation that the Wagner Group boss had been aboard the jet along with six other passengers and three flight staff. Putin’s blandly sinister reaction was that his erstwhile friend and ally was a “talented businessman” with a “complicated fate” who “made serious mistakes in his life”.</p>
<p>It’s unlikely that we will ever know for sure exactly what led to his death and, if – as seems likely – this was an assassination, who ordered it. But as Stefan Wolff, an expert in international relations at the University of Birmingham notes, people who seriously cross the Russian leader rarely <a href="https://theconversation.com/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-boss-joins-long-list-of-those-who-challenged-vladimir-putin-and-paid-the-price-212181">live very long thereafter</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Since Vladimir Putin sent his war machine into Ukraine on February 24 2022, The Conversation has called upon some of the leading experts in international security, geopolitics and military tactics to help our readers <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/ukraine-12-months-at-war-134215?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">understand the big issues</a>. You can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">subscribe to our fortnightly recap</a> of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.</em></p>
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<p>As Wolff points out, Prigozhin’s direct challenge to Putin’s authority when he led his men out of Ukraine and across the border and on the road to Moscow, meeting with Russian military brass and receiving a rapturous welcome in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, would have seriously irritated the Russian president. Not to mention making him look foolish, indecisive – even weak. </p>
<p>US president Joe Biden probably said what many of us were thinking when he gave his assessment of Prigozhin’s death: “I don’t know for a fact what happened, but I’m not surprised. There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind. But I don’t know enough to know the answer.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-boss-joins-long-list-of-those-who-challenged-vladimir-putin-and-paid-the-price-212181">Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss joins long list of those who challenged Vladimir Putin and paid the price</a>
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<p>The question as to how far Putin himself has been has weakened by this episode is an interesting one. On the one hand Prigzhin’s death may have given anyone seeking to challenge the Russian president pause for thought. On the other hand, Matthew Sussex from the Australian National University in Canberra believes that the mercenary group boss’s death after he had apparently been given reassurances as to his safety is a message to Russia’s elites that they can’t trust a word their leader says. </p>
<p>As Sussex <a href="https://theconversation.com/wagner-chief-prigozhin-reportedly-killed-but-has-putin-cooked-his-own-goose-212180">writes here</a>: “Putin’s politics of terror has a self-destructive flaw: ruling through fear and deception inevitably prompts those who might be targets (which is essentially anyone) to eventually try to change the rules of the game.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wagner-chief-prigozhin-reportedly-killed-but-has-putin-cooked-his-own-goose-212180">Wagner chief Prigozhin reportedly killed, but has Putin cooked his own goose?</a>
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<p>The Russian president was conspicuous by his absence at the Wagner Group boss’s funeral in St Petersburg this week. Prigozhin was hailed in one tribute from the “grateful people of Africa” as a “second Nelson Mandela”, which will no doubt come as a surprise to many people in the numerous African countries in which the Wagner Group has taken on contract work. </p>
<p>Ezenwa Olumba of Royal Holloway, University of London and Idris Mohammed of Usmanu Danfodiyo University in Sokoto, Nigeria – both scholars of conflict in Africa – have been researching countries where the Wagner Group is involved and <a href="https://theconversation.com/wagner-group-what-yevgeny-prigozhins-death-means-for-stability-in-africa-212467">write that</a>: “A common denominator among these countries is the presence of insurgencies or civil wars, abundant natural resources, corrupt leadership, and unconstitutional governance.” </p>
<p>The Russian mercenaries, they believe, rarely act to improve the situation, tending rather to prolong the conflict, enriching themselves and their clients at the expense of the majority of the people and allegedly involving themselves in serious human rights abuses and violence.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wagner-group-what-yevgeny-prigozhins-death-means-for-stability-in-africa-212467">Wagner Group: what Yevgeny Prigozhin's death means for stability in Africa</a>
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<h2>On and above the battlefield</h2>
<p>More than 18 months into this bloody war, Ukraine is now reckoned to be one of – if not the – most mine-contaminated countries in the world. In March alone, 226 people were killed by landmines in Ukraine and 496 injured. About 30% of Ukraine is now thought to be contaminated by mines, which will take decades to clear. And, tragically, this means the deaths and injuries will continue long after the shooting stops.</p>
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<img alt="A red skull and crossbones placard warns people of landmines in the area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545821/original/file-20230831-29-tc6x1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545821/original/file-20230831-29-tc6x1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545821/original/file-20230831-29-tc6x1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545821/original/file-20230831-29-tc6x1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545821/original/file-20230831-29-tc6x1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545821/original/file-20230831-29-tc6x1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545821/original/file-20230831-29-tc6x1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Insidious weapon: people will still die from landmine explosions long after the war finishes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/white-skull-crossbones-symbol-on-red-2234678911">yalyashenko/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Sarah Njeri, a researcher from SOAS who has spent decades in conflict resolution, peacebuilding and disarmament advocacy, has travelled widely studying the effects of landmines and other unexploded ordnance. She discusses the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-after-the-shooting-stops-landmines-will-keep-killing-as-weve-seen-in-too-many-countries-211559">devastating effect they have on a country’s recovery from war</a>, rendering vast tracts of land uninhabitable and – importantly for a country such as Ukraine which relies so much in agriculture – dangerous if not impossible to farm on.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-after-the-shooting-stops-landmines-will-keep-killing-as-weve-seen-in-too-many-countries-211559">Ukraine war: after the shooting stops landmines will keep killing -- as we've seen in too many countries</a>
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<p>Above the battlefield, meanwhile, some good news for Ukraine when Washington reversed its position and decided to allow countries to whom it had sold its state-of-the-art F-16 warplanes to supply them to Ukraine. At present there are about 40 aircraft being made available by Denmark and the Netherlands and more are expected to follow. </p>
<p>Matthew Powell, an expert in air power at the University of Portsmouth, says it will still take months to train Ukrainian pilots to handle the aircraft but once they are deployed they should give Ukraine an <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-months-of-negotiations-ukraine-will-be-getting-the-f-16-warplanes-it-has-been-begging-for-heres-why-thats-important-212135">edge in the air</a>. Importantly, too, their use will also give Ukraine’s airforce – and military in general – an opportunity to learn more about Nato operations as their deployment will require closer integration with Nato systems.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-months-of-negotiations-ukraine-will-be-getting-the-f-16-warplanes-it-has-been-begging-for-heres-why-thats-important-212135">After months of negotiations Ukraine will be getting the F-16 warplanes it has been begging for – here's why that's important</a>
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<p>From hi-tech to lo-tech: Ukraine carried out a successful raid on an airfield in Kursk, western Russia last weekend using low-cost cardboard drones. The drones – or to give them their proper name, the Corvo Precision Payload Delivery Systems (PPDS) – were manufactured by Australian form Sypaq and supplied by the Australian government: 100 a month from March as part of a £15.7 million aid deal. </p>
<p>These lightweight drones, which cost about £2,750 apiece and are assembled from a flatpack, reportedly damaged a Mig-29 and four Su-30 fighter jets, two Pantsir anti-aircraft missile launchers, gun systems, and an S-300 air surface-to-air missile defence system. As design expert Paul Cureton of Lancaster University writes, it’s a good example of how innovative design choices can have a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-australian-made-cardboard-drones-used-to-attack-russian-airfield-show-how-innovation-is-key-to-modern-warfare-212629">massive impact on warfare</a> as military and commercial demands symbiotically spur on development.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-australian-made-cardboard-drones-used-to-attack-russian-airfield-show-how-innovation-is-key-to-modern-warfare-212629">Ukraine war: Australian-made cardboard drones used to attack Russian airfield show how innovation is key to modern warfare</a>
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<p>Russia, meanwhile, is reported to have deployed a quantity of its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to a <a href="https://reform.by/320546-novoe-issledovanie-chatham-house-kto-drug-kto-vrag-i-nuzhno-li-nam-jadernoe-oruzhie">Chatham House poll</a> conducted in June 2022, 80% of the urban population of Belarus is opposed to hosting Russian nuclear weapons. But happily for Putin, he keeps a friendly president in power there, so they don’t have much say in the matter.</p>
<p>As Veronika Poniscjakova, an expert in military strategy and international relations at the University of Portsmouth, writes, since the invasion of Ukraine last February, both Putin and his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev, have regularly hinted at the possibility that Russia could, if pushed, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-the-implications-of-moscow-moving-tactical-nuclear-weapons-to-belarus-212296">resort to the use of its nuclear arsenal</a>. She points to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, updated in 2020, which says that Russia would use such weapons if “aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy”. This, she warns, could be open to a wide interpretation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-the-implications-of-moscow-moving-tactical-nuclear-weapons-to-belarus-212296">Ukraine war: the implications of Moscow moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus</a>
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<h2>History matters</h2>
<p>Pope Francis ruffled more than a few feathers this week when he gave a video address to the All-Russian Meeting of Catholic Youth in St Petersburg in which he urged them not to give up on the heritage of “Mother Russia”, declaring: “You are the descendants of great Russia: the great Russia of saints, rulers, the great Russia of Peter I, Catherine II, that empire – educated, great culture and great humanity.”</p>
<p>Now it’s probable his emphasis was meant to be on the last bit of this statement, reminding Russian youngsters that they share in the greatness of the likes of Tolstoy, Tchaikovsky, Dostoevsky, Rachmaninoff and the like. But in Kyiv it sounded like a tone-deaf paean to two autocrats, one of whom Putin is <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-suggests-putin-is-more-vladimir-the-reactionary-than-peter-the-great-186133">wont to likening himself to</a> and the other of whom invaded Crimea in the late 18th century. </p>
<p>Olivia Durand, of Oxford University – who has written for us several times reflecting on Putin’s use of history to justify his invasion of Ukraine – takes us through the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-popes-message-to-young-russians-not-to-forget-great-russia-of-catherine-ii-and-peter-i-has-not-gone-down-well-in-ukraine-212638">battle for Russia’s soul</a>, why empire and religion are so bound up with each other in the Russian psyche and why the Pope’s words would have caused such angst among Ukrainians.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-popes-message-to-young-russians-not-to-forget-great-russia-of-catherine-ii-and-peter-i-has-not-gone-down-well-in-ukraine-212638">Why Pope's message to young Russians not to forget 'great Russia of Catherine II and Peter I' has not gone down well in Ukraine</a>
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<p>Finally, to tide you over until the next recap in a fortnight, a little light reading. Russia’s War Against Ukraine: The Whole Story, by historian Mark Edele, is as he himself notes: “a book by an outsider written for outsiders”. If you are interested in finding out more about this remarkable book, read <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-is-unlikely-ever-to-return-to-the-russian-empire-in-a-new-book-mark-edele-unpacks-whats-at-stake-in-a-bloody-war-211497">this excellent review</a> from Marko Pavlyshyn, an emeritus professor in Ukrainian Studies at Monash University.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-is-unlikely-ever-to-return-to-the-russian-empire-in-a-new-book-mark-edele-unpacks-whats-at-stake-in-a-bloody-war-211497">'Ukraine is unlikely ever to return to the Russian Empire': in a new book, Mark Edele unpacks what's at stake in a bloody war</a>
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<p><em>Ukraine Recap is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+Newsletter+Ukraine+Recap+2022+Mar&utm_content=WeeklyRecapBottom">Click here to get our recaps directly in your inbox.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A selection of the best of our coverage of the conflict from the past fortnight.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126292023-08-31T14:45:39Z2023-08-31T14:45:39ZUkraine war: Australian-made cardboard drones used to attack Russian airfield show how innovation is key to modern warfare<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545786/original/file-20230831-23-9gjgbd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C3%2C1106%2C682&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ukraine has reportedly used cardboard drones built from flatpack kits to attack a Russian airfield.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sypaq</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Innovative design choices can have a massive impact in the theatre of war, so it is important to understand the principles behind their development. Recent use of <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/30/cardboard-drones-ukraine-strike-russian-planes-kursk/">low-cost cardboard drones</a> by Ukraine, supplied by Australia, to attack targets in Russia is a good example of how this can work. </p>
<p>Australia has been supplying Ukraine with 100 of the drones per month from March this year as part of an aid package deal worth an estimated £15.7 million, following an agreement struck in July 2021, according to the <a href="https://www.sypaq.com.au/news/sypaq-awarded-logistics-drone-contract-by-army/">Australian Army Defence Innovation Hub</a>. </p>
<p>Emerging technologies tend to override current technologies, and in turn, this generates competitive counter-technologies. This circular relationship driven by innovation is often critical in warfare as it can provide key technological advances. </p>
<p>Drone technology was originally developed for military use. It was then seen to offer opportunities in the civilian sphere for logistics, delivery and disaster relief. This then in turn has offered new innovations that can translate to military applications. </p>
<p>Conflicts in the future will be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14751798.2023.2178599?src=&">particularly shaped by drones</a>, which will have implications for international relations, security and defence.</p>
<p>The Australian firm <a href="https://www.sypaq.com.au/news/sypaq-awarded-logistics-drone-contract-by-army/">Sypaq</a>, an engineering and solutions company founded in 1992, created the <a href="https://corvouas.com.au/">Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System</a> (PPDS) for use in military, law enforcement, border security and emergency services, as well as food security, asset inspection and search and rescue.</p>
<p>Ukrainian forces reportedly used the PDDS cardboard drones in an <a href="https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/08/27/source-in-ukraine-intelligence-reports-drone-attack-on-military-airfield-in-russia-s-kursk-region">attack on an airfield</a> in Kursk Oblast in western Russia on August 27. The attack damaged a Mig-29 and four Su-30 fighter jets, two Pantsir anti-aircraft missile launchers, gun systems, and an S-300 air surface-to-air missile defence system.</p>
<h2>Design principles</h2>
<p>The design principles behind the success of the drones revolve around several factors including the production cost, airframe material, weight, payload, range, deployment and ease of use. Other considerations include the reliability of the operating software and the ability to fly the drone in various weather conditions. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Seven Network news report on SYPAQ’s cardboad drones.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Generally, small drones offer high-resolution imagery for reconnaissance in a rapidly changing theatre of war. The Corvo drone has a high-resolution camera that provides images covering a large area, transmitting footage back to its user in real time.</p>
<p>The importance of real-time mapping is critical in modern agile armed forces’ command and control as this can direct ground forces, heavy weapons and artillery. </p>
<p>In some cases, the design of small drones is concentrated on adapting the payloads to carry different types of munitions, as seen in the attack in Kursk.</p>
<p>The cardboard drones can carry 5kg of weight, have a wingspan of two metres and a range of 120km at a reported cost of US$3,500 (£2,750). Waxed cardboard is an ideal material as it offers weather resistance, flat-pack transportation (measuring 510mm by 760mm) and, importantly, a lightweight airframe, which enables a longer flight range and a high cruise speed of 60km/h. </p>
<p>Fixed-wing drones also offer longer ranges than rotor-based drones as the wings generate the lift and the airframe has less drag, so they are more energy efficient. They can also fly at higher altitudes. The drones can be launched from a simple catapult or by hand and so can be rapidly deployed. </p>
<h2>Low-tech material, hi-tech thinking</h2>
<p>Radar involves the transmission of electromagnetic waves, and these are reflected off any object back to a receiving antenna. Cardboard is generally harder to detect by radar – but its components, such as the battery, can be detected. </p>
<p>But the Corvo drone is likely to have a small signature. Radar-absorbing materials are needed to have full stealth properties. These polymers have various <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780128199046/fiber-reinforced-nanocomposites-fundamentals-and-applications">absorbing qualities</a> to avoid radar detection.</p>
<p>Another design principle is the swarming capability of the drone. Swarms of drones can overpower air defence systems through sheer volume and or can be used as decoys in counterintelligence operations. </p>
<p>Swarms are highly reliant on the development of artificial intelligence, which is still an embryonic research area. But a recent <a href="https://www.news.uzh.ch/en/articles/media/2023/Drone-race.html">drone race</a> at ETH University in Zurich, in which AI-piloted drone beat drones controlled by world-champion drone racers, highlighted this potential.</p>
<p>All of these design principles and innovations have and are continuing to transform warfare and theatre operations. It is likely that small drones at low cost are likely to have further mission success in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cureton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The drones are light, cheap, easy to transport and have proved to be highly effective as a weapon of war.Paul Cureton, Senior Lecturer in Design (People, Places, Products), Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124442023-08-30T03:18:10Z2023-08-30T03:18:10ZUS military plans to unleash thousands of autonomous war robots over next two years<p>The United States military plans to start using thousands of autonomous weapons systems in the next two years in a bid to counter China’s growing power, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3507156/deputy-secretary-of-defense-kathleen-hicks-keynote-address-the-urgency-to-innov/">announced</a> in a speech on Monday.</p>
<p>The so-called Replicator initiative aims to work with defence and other tech companies to produce <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3507514/hicks-underscores-us-innovation-in-unveiling-strategy-to-counter-chinas-militar/">high volumes of affordable systems</a> for all branches of the military.</p>
<p>Military systems capable of various degrees of independent operation have become increasingly common over the past decade or so. But the scale and scope of the US announcement makes clear the future of conflict has changed: the age of warfighting robots is upon us. </p>
<h2>An idea whose time has come</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, there has been considerable development of advanced robotic systems for military purposes. Many of these have been based on modifying commercial technology, which itself has become more capable, cheaper and more widely available. </p>
<p>More recently, the focus has shifted onto experimenting with how to best use these in combat. Russia’s war in Ukraine has demonstrated that the technology is ready for real-world deployment. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-drones-are-changing-the-conflict-both-on-the-frontline-and-beyond-211460">Ukraine war: drones are changing the conflict – both on the frontline and beyond</a>
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<p><a href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/loitering-munitions-in-ukraine-and-beyond/">Loitering munitions</a>, a form of robot air vehicle, have been widely used to find and attack armoured vehicles and artillery. Ukrainian naval attack drones <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-sea-drones-paralyzed-russia-black-sea-fleet-spy-chief-2023-8">have paralysed</a> Russia’s Black Sea fleet, forcing their crewed warships to stay in port. </p>
<p>Military robots are an idea whose time has come.</p>
<h2>Robots everywhere</h2>
<p>In her speech, Hicks talked of a perceived urgent need to change how wars are fought. She <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3507156/deputy-secretary-of-defense-kathleen-hicks-keynote-address-the-urgency-to-innov/">declared</a>, in somewhat impenetrable Pentagon-speak, that the new Replicator program would </p>
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<p>field attritable autonomous systems at scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18 to 24 months. </p>
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<p>Decoding this, “autonomous” means a robot that can carry out complex military missions without human intervention. </p>
<p>“Attritable” means the robot is cheap enough that it can be placed at risk and lost if the mission is of high priority. Such a robot is not quite designed to be disposable, but it would be reasonably affordable so many can be bought and combat losses replaced. </p>
<p>Finally, “multiple domains” means robots on land, at sea, in the air and in space. In short, robots everywhere for all kinds of tasks.</p>
<h2>The robot mission</h2>
<p>For <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pentagon-reviews-say-china-poses-greatest-security-challenge-to-u-s-while-russia-is-acute-threat/">the US military</a>, Russia is an “acute threat” but China is the “pacing challenge” against which to benchmark its military capabilities. </p>
<p>China’s People’s Liberation Army is seen as having a significant advantage in terms of “mass”: it has more people, more tanks, more ships, more missiles and so on. The US may have better-quality equipment, but China wins on quantity. </p>
<p>By quickly building thousands of “attritable autonomous systems”, the Replicator program will now give the US the numbers considered necessary to win future major wars. </p>
<p>The imagined future war of most concern is a hypothetical battle for Taiwan, which <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3840337-generals-memo-spurs-debate-could-china-invade-taiwan-by-2025/">some postulate</a> could soon begin. Recent <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/massive-drone-swarm-over-strait-decisive-in-taiwan-conflict-wargames">tabletop wargames</a> have suggested large swarms of robots could be the decisive element for the US in defeating any major Chinese invasion. </p>
<p>However, Replicator is also looking further ahead, and aims to institutionalise mass production of robots for the long term. Hicks argues: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We must ensure [China’s] leadership wakes up every day, considers the risks of aggression, and concludes, “today is not the day” — and not just today, but every day, between now and 2027, now and 2035, now and 2049, and beyond.</p>
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<h2>A brave new world?</h2>
<p>One great concern about autonomous systems is whether their use can conform to the laws of armed conflict.</p>
<p>Optimists argue robots can be carefully programmed to follow rules, and in the heat and confusion of combat they may even obey better than humans. </p>
<p>Pessimists counter by noting not all situations can be foreseen, and robots may well misunderstand and attack when they should not. They have a point. </p>
<p>Among earlier autonomous military systems, the Phalanx close-in point defence gun and the Patriot surface-to-air missile have both misperformed. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-researchers-should-not-retreat-from-battlefield-robots-they-should-engage-them-head-on-45367">AI researchers should not retreat from battlefield robots, they should engage them head-on</a>
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<p>Used only once in combat, during the first Gulf War in 1991, the <a href="http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-103.php">Phalanx fired</a> at a chaff decoy cloud rather than countering the attacking anti-ship missile. The more modern Patriot has proven effective in shooting down attacking ballistic missiles, but also <a href="https://css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/976797da-7b8b-4e86-84f4-4052f394d2e1">twice shot down</a> friendly aircraft during the second Gulf War in 2003, killing their human crews.</p>
<p>Clever design may overcome such problems in future autonomous systems. However, Hicks promised a “responsible and ethical approach to AI and autonomous systems” in her speech – which suggests any system able to kill targets will still need formal authorisation from a human to do so. </p>
<h2>A global change</h2>
<p>The US may be the first nation to field large numbers of autonomous systems, but other countries will be close behind. China is an obvious candidate, with great strength in both <a href="https://news.usni.org/2023/06/26/china-looking-to-become-artificial-intelligence-global-leader-report-says">artificial intelligence</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/24/how-china-became-the-worlds-leading-exporter-of-combat-drones">combat drone production</a>.</p>
<p>However, because much of the technology behind autonomous military drones has been developed for civilian purposes, it is widely available and relatively cheap. Autonomous military systems are not just for the great powers, but could also soon be fielded by many middle and smaller powers. </p>
<p><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/was-a-flying-killer-robot-used-in-libya-quite-possibly/">Libya</a> and <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2282656-israel-used-worlds-first-ai-guided-combat-drone-swarm-in-gaza-attacks/">Israel</a>, among others, have reportedly deployed autonomous weapons, and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/killer-drones-turkeys-growing-defense-industry-is-boosting-its-global-clout.html">Turkish-made drones</a> have proved important in the Ukraine war. </p>
<p>Australia is another country keenly interested in the possibilities of autonomous weapons. The Australian Defence Force is today building <a href="https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/unmanned/government-accelerates-ghost-bat-program">the MQ-28 Ghostbat</a> autonomous fast jet air vehicle, robot <a href="https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/bae-systems-turns-m113-personnel-carriers-autonomous">mechanised armoured vehicles</a>, robot <a href="https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/australian-army-runs-autonomous-highway-truck-convoy">logistic trucks</a> and <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/anduril-bets-it-can-build-3-large-autonomous-subs-for-aussies-in-3-years/">robot submarines</a>, and is already using the <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/adf-to-use-sydney-engineering-firms-unmanned-solar-powered-boats-to-patrol-seas/news-story/ba7c6dd18c405c58e71e72da68699c39">Bluebottle robot sailboat</a> for maritime border surveillance in the Timor Sea. </p>
<p>And in a move that foreshadowed the Replicator initiative, the Australian government last month called for local companies to suggest how <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-re-trailing-the-world-push-for-aussie-made-defence-drones-20230820-p5dxxu.html">they might build</a> very large numbers of military aerial drones in-country in the next few years. </p>
<p>At least one Australian company, SYPAQ, is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aussie-cardboard-drones-used-in-attack-on-russian-airfield-20230829-p5e0bv.html">already on the move</a>, sending a number of its cheap, cardboard-bodied drones to bolster Ukraine’s defences. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1695876431614456186"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Layton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The age of autonomous weapons is upon usPeter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114602023-08-16T11:05:31Z2023-08-16T11:05:31ZUkraine war: drones are changing the conflict – both on the frontline and beyond<p>As Kyiv’s counteroffensive to liberate Russian-occupied territories <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14-2023">slowly advances</a> in Ukraine’s east, the drone war continues to escalate. Beyond the symbolic value of high-profile strikes against targets in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66367658">Moscow</a>, deep in the Russian heartland, and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66402046">Novorossiysk</a>, a key Russian port and export hub on the eastern shores of the Black Sea, this also has important operational and tactical implications for Ukraine. It demonstrates the opportunities, and limitations, of technology on the battlefield and beyond.</p>
<p>Ukraine routinely refuses to confirm its responsibility for drone attacks on Moscow, the most recent of which hit the Russian capital’s business district in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drones-target-moscow-high-rise-building-hit-2023-08-01/">July and August</a>. But there can now be little doubt that this tactic is designed to demonstrate Ukraine’s capability to bring the war to ordinary Russians, even in their most protected city. </p>
<p>Beyond the attacks on Moscow, drones have been extensively used on the battlefields, both on land and at sea. They are now being deployed at such a rate that Ukraine is estimated to lose about <a href="https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf">10,000 drones a month</a> in combat. Videos widely circulating on social media apparently show how effective Ukrainian drones can be <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/europe/ukraine-sea-drone-russian-warship-black-sea-intl/index.html">taking out Russian ships</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/13/a-swarm-of-tiny-ukrainian-drones-just-knocked-out-one-of-russias-nine-remaining-terminator-vehicles/">tanks</a>. </p>
<h2>Morale boosters</h2>
<p>Much like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-drones-are-transforming-the-conflict-bringing-russia-on-to-the-frontline-196229">well-documented</a> drone attacks on Russian air force bases in December 2022, the recent strikes on Moscow – and the coverage they have received in mainstream and social media – are part of an important <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/08/02/1191557426/ukraine-war-news-coverage">information war</a>. This is designed to expose Russian military failures and vulnerabilities, while demonstrating Ukrainian ingenuity in adopting civilian <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-top-tanks-taken-out-by-cheap-hobby-drones-2023-8">technology</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/like-playing-a-computer-game-on-the-frontline-with-one-of-ukraines-deadliest-drone-pilots">skills</a> in a national defence effort. Much of this effort is <a href="https://savelife.in.ua/en/">crowd-funded</a> by the civilian population in Urkaine and their supporters abroad.</p>
<p>Drone strikes, therefore, are also designed to boost morale back at home and among Ukraine’s western partners, at a time when the Ukrainian counteroffensive is making <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14-2023">grindingly slow progress</a>. Not only are they a sign that Ukraine can hit back at Russian territory, but they also demonstrate that its armed forces can do so with technology developed at home by a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/721250e3-fcbc-41ae-b609-33c5feb62130">thriving military industrial sector</a>. </p>
<p>Fast, small – and above all cheap – drones have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-russian-t-90-tank-destroyed-by-cheap-hobby-drone-2023-8">proved</a> an effective way for Ukraine to take out vastly more expensive Russian military technology. Given the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/03/nato-weapons-russia/">restrictions</a> attached to the use of western-supplied equipment against Russia, this is an important demonstration of a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-tech-entrepreneurs-fight-war-different-front-2023-04-04/">home-grown</a> Ukrainian capability and determination to take the fight to the enemy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/moscow-drone-attacks-are-a-morale-booster-for-ukraine-and-a-warning-for-russia-heres-why-206797">Moscow drone attacks are a morale booster for Ukraine and a warning for Russia – here's why</a>
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<p>The attacks on Moscow also illustrate how much drone technology and its uses <a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/drones-in-ukraine-and-beyond-everything-you-need-to-know/">have evolved</a> throughout the war. Initially, most Ukrainian drone use involved Turkey’s <a href="https://www.turkishminute.com/2023/01/20/analysis-how-effective-is-the-tb2-ucav-in-the-ukraine-russia-war/">Bayraktar TB2</a>, which achieved considerable success as a tank-buster in the early weeks and months of the war. The role of this system and similar systems is now much reduced because more effective Russian air defences and electronic jamming have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/10/in-war-there-are-no-emotions-ukraine-drone-squads-bakhmut">severely impeded</a> Ukrainian drone use. </p>
<p>Recent reports have claimed that Ukraine might have found a way to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/08/09/how-did-ukraine-beat-russias-drone-jammers">evade</a> Russian jamming, but details have not been forthcoming. </p>
<h2>Rise of the kamikaze drone</h2>
<p>As the use of drones evolves, the most significant development has been the use of so called “kamikaze drones”, which are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-62225830">deployed by both Russia and Ukraine</a>. These drones have the advantage of being able to be directed in real time through first-person view devices – a tablet or a VR headset – and are both highly manoeuvrable and exceedingly fast. They are also invulnerable to GPS jamming because they are hand-operated in real time using their cameras. And they are more difficult to intercept with anti-aircraft defences because of their speed, relatively small size and high manoeuvrability. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-iranian-kamikaze-drones-can-inflict-serious-damage-but-will-not-be-a-gamechanger-192754">Ukraine war: Iranian 'kamikaze' drones can inflict serious damage but will not be a gamechanger</a>
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<p>Commercially available, inexpensive and easy to operate, these systems <a href="https://uavcoach.com/fpv-quadcopter-drone-systems/">are more accurate</a> than artillery or mortar fire. They can also carry payloads from hand grenades to antitank warheads which can be used to lethal effect against all but the most hardened of targets. The <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/05/photos-ukraine-war-drones/674160/">footage they produce</a> also has significant value in the information war.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1669335919235612673"}"></div></p>
<p>The ability of these systems to be used in large numbers as coordinated swarm attacks is being worked on in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-weak-defenses-letting-ukrainian-drone-boats-blow-holes-warships-2023-8">anticipation</a> of improving anti-drone defensive capabilities.</p>
<p>Drones have also played a vital role in the war in Ukraine because of their use for reconnaissance. They have made the battlefield much more transparent. This allows Ukrainian units to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/05/12/drones-give-ukrainian-artillery-lethal-accuracy">direct fire</a> from artillery and mortars in a way that is more like targeted sniper fire than the barrage approach adopted by the Russian side with its more plentiful supplies of shells. </p>
<h2>Key part of Ukraine’s armoury</h2>
<p>Ukrainian capabilities are likely to increase further in this regard, following the announcement by German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall that it will <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/08/14/allies-send-new-reconnaissance-drone-counter-uas-systems-to-ukraine/">supply its LUNA unmanned reconnaissance drone to Kyiv</a>. This has a datalink range of up to 300 kilometres and can loiter near targets for up to 12 hours.</p>
<p>The excitement that drone technologies have created beyond the battlefield, however, should not be mistaken for a game-changing impact on the front lines. Drones, so far, have not been able to have much impact on the deeply-entrenched defences Russian forces have built up along the 1,200km-long front in Ukraine. Neither do drones have the same blast capabilities as traditional air power. </p>
<p>But they complement very well what Ukraine and its allies have brought to bear against the Russian invaders for the past 18 months. They can rightly be credited with offsetting some of the disadvantages that Ukraine has against its much larger, aggressive neighbour in the east. </p>
<p>Drones bolstered Ukraine’s military and psychological defences early on in the war and they are likely to damage Russia’s as Ukraine continues its liberation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hastings Dunn has previously received funding from the ESRC, the Gerda Henkel Foundation, the Open Democracy Foundation and has previously been both a NATO and a Fulbright Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London and Co-Coordinator of the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions.</span></em></p>Drones are both a destructive battlefield weapon and deliver a psychological boost when used on Russian cities.David Hastings Dunn, Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of BirminghamStefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2091802023-08-02T17:13:54Z2023-08-02T17:13:54ZHow swarming animals can help humans and AI make better decisions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535929/original/file-20230705-23-hte9mu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6381%2C3444&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Starling murmurations form as daylight fades over their roosting sites. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-large-flock-starlings-birds-fly-1930366580">Shutterstock / Albert Beukhof</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The word swarm often carries negative connotations – think biblical plagues of locusts or high streets full of last-minute shoppers during the Christmas rush. However, swarming is essential for the survival of many animal collectives. And now research into swarming has the potential to change things for humans too.</p>
<p>Bees swarm to make their <a href="https://academic.oup.com/aesa/article/97/1/111/11469">search for new colonies</a> more effective. Flocks of starlings use <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00265-018-2609-0">dazzling murmurations to evade and confuse predators</a>. These are just two examples from nature but swarming can be seen in almost every corner of the animal kingdom. </p>
<p>Research from mathematicians, biologists and social scientists is helping us understand swarming and harness its power. It’s already being used for <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/4424900">crowd control</a>, <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5366981">traffic management</a> and to understand the <a href="https://ts2.space/en/swarm-intelligence-for-public-health-and-epidemiology/">spread of infectious diseases</a>. More recently, it’s starting to shape how we use data for healthcare, operate drones in military conflicts and has been used to beat near-insurmountable betting odds in sporting events.</p>
<p>A swarm is a system that is greater than the sum of its parts. Just as many neurons form a brain capable of thought, memory and emotion, groups of animals can act in unison to form a “super brain”, displaying highly complex behaviour not seen in individual animals. </p>
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<p>Artificial life expert Craig Reynolds revolutionised the study of swarming in 1986 with the publication of the <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/37401.37406">Boids model</a> computer simulation. The Boids model breaks down swarming into a simple set of rules. </p>
<p>The Boids (bird-oids) in the simulation, like avatars or characters in a video game, are instructed to move in the same direction as their neighbours, move towards the average position of their neighbours, and avoid collisions with other boids. </p>
<p>Boids simulations are strikingly accurate when compared with real swarms. </p>
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<p>The Boids model suggests that swarming does not need leaders to coordinate behaviour – like pedestrians in a town centre rather than a guided museum tour. The complex behaviour we see in swarms arises from interactions between individuals following the same simple rules in parallel. In the language of physics, this phenomenon is known as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1476945X07000049?casa_token=6Lr13Hi0yzUAAAAA:eN6wloN9IBvWw5zl_iqVp1lFgyiKGa1P17Uk9QYkVLj6f0-DsFBQ1iFB0MT_YYKSNSi7S2mr">emergence</a>. </p>
<h2>The hive mind</h2>
<p>In 2016, US technology company <a href="https://unanimous.ai/">Unanimous AI</a> used the power of swarm intelligence to <a href="https://unanimous.ai/unu-superfecta-11k/">win the Kentucky Derby “superfecta” bet</a>, successfully predicting the first, second, third and fourth-placed riders in the famous US horse race. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/2016/5/5/11594904/2016-kentucky-derby-picks-predictions-nyquist-mor-spirit">Industry experts</a> and <a href="https://hothardware.com/news/bing-predicts-kentucky-derby-winner-social-algorithms">conventional machine learning algorithms</a> made swathes of incorrect predictions. However, amateur racing enthusiasts recruited by Unanimous AI pooled their knowledge to beat the <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2638613-kentucky-derby-results-2016-winner-payouts-highlights-and-order-of-finish">541/1 odds</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537381/original/file-20230713-14892-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hopeful punters bet millions of dollars on the Kentucky Derby each year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock / Cheryl Ann Quigley</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The volunteers’ success lay in the way in which their predictions were generated. Instead of voting on riders and aggregating their choices, the volunteers used <a href="https://unanimous.ai/swarm/">Unanimous AI’s swarm intelligence platform</a> to participate in a real-time digital tug of war, inspired by swarms of birds and bees.</p>
<p>All volunteers simultaneously pulled a dial towards their respective choices. This allowed people to change their preferences in response to the actions of others (for example, a person may have switched to pulling towards their second choice, B, rather than their first choice, C, if they saw A and B were the clear favourites). </p>
<p>Responding to one another in real time allowed Unanimous AI’s volunteers to collectively outperform <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/2016/5/5/11594904/2016-kentucky-derby-picks-predictions-nyquist-mor-spirit">highly-informed individuals</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, had the most frequent individual picks of the volunteers determined the ordering, only the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/05/07/477171967/nyquist-wins-the-2016-kentucky-derby#:%7E:text=Carr%2FGetty%20Images-,Nyquist%2C%20ridden%20by%20Mario%20Gutierrez%2C%20crosses%20the%20finish%20line%20during,Churchill%20Downs%20on%20May%207.&text=Nearly%20one%20year%20since%20American,his%20own%20at%20Churchill%20Downs.">2016 winner</a> and <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/2016/5/7/11616138/2016-kentucky-derby-odds-post-nyquist-my-man-sam-exaggerator-bet-how">bookies’ favourite</a>, <a href="https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/896792/nyquist">Nyquist</a>, would have been placed correctly. </p>
<h2>Health concerns</h2>
<p>Similar swarming technologies are also of increasing interest in the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03583-3">healthcare</a> sector, where <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2022.1038854/full">talk of an AI revolution</a> is prompting <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/chtlj/vol36/iss4/2/">increasing concerns around patient privacy</a>. </p>
<p>As the reliance on <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11518-019-5437-5.pdf">data-driven techniques in healthcare</a> increases, so too does the demand for extensive patient datasets. One way to meet these demands is to <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768851">pool information between institutions and in some cases, countries</a>. </p>
<p>However, the transfer of patient data is often subject to <a href="https://www.jmir.org/2017/2/e47/">stringent data protection regulations</a>. A solution to this problem is to use only in-house data, though this often comes at the expense of diagnostic accuracy. </p>
<p>An alternative lies in swarming. Researchers believe swarm intelligence can <a href="https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/ai-with-swarm-intelligence-to-analyse-medical-data.html">preserve diagnostic accuracy</a> without the need for raw data exchange between institutions. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03583-3">Preliminary studies</a> have shown decentralising data storage into a network of interacting nodes can give institutions the benefit of shared wisdom. This means there isn’t a central hub coordinating the flow of information, and institutions can’t access the private patient data of each other. </p>
<p>Centralised machine learning uses data uploaded to a shared hub where machine learning takes place using all available data. In decentralised systems, each institution separately stores its data in its own node. The machine learning happens locally at each node (using only in-house data), but the results of machine learning are shared between the network, to the benefit of all nodes. This process ensures that raw patient data is not exchanged between institutions, preserving patient privacy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537570/original/file-20230714-29-ahjkkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Swarms of drones may soon populate the battlefield.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock / Andy Dean Photography</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Swarms and warfare</h2>
<p>Drone technology is increasingly used in front-line combat, in recent times most notably by <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/03/europe/ukraine-secretive-drone-program-russia-war-intl/index.html">Ukrainian forces</a> in the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine">ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict</a>. However, as it stands, conventional drone technology requires <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASOR/Journals/Volume-1_Number-4/Lowther.pdf">one-to-one supervision</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/09/british-army-carries-out-successful-swarming-drone-capability/">Current defence research</a> aims to facilitate communication between drones, allowing one controller to operate swarms of drones. The development of such technology promises to vastly improve the <a href="https://www.military.africa/2023/06/drone-swarm-technology-an-overview/">scalability</a>, <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/juvs-2018-0009">reconnaissance</a> and <a href="https://www.eurasiantimes.com/edited-drone-swarms-controlling-drone-swarms-pentagon/">striking</a> capabilities of combat drones by allowing for continuous information relay within groups of drones. </p>
<p>As research delves deeper into swarming, we find a world where collective action creates complexity, adaptability, and efficiency. As technology evolves, the role of swarm intelligence is set to grow, intertwining our world with the fascinating dynamics of swarms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Johnson receives funding from Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). </span></em></p>Research into swarming in nature is transforming healthcare, gambling and the military.Samuel Johnson, DPhil Candidate in Mathematical Biology, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093912023-07-14T02:59:43Z2023-07-14T02:59:43ZDrones are disturbing critically endangered shorebirds in Moreton Bay, creating a domino effect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536434/original/file-20230710-25-l6rwkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C44%2C5955%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joshua Wilson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Drones are increasingly swarming our skies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/eyes-on-the-world-drones-change-our-point-of-view-and-our-truths-143838">capturing images</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/farmers-of-the-future-will-utilize-drones-robots-and-gps-37739">managing crops</a> and soon, <a href="https://theconversation.com/drone-delivery-is-a-thing-now-but-how-feasible-is-having-it-everywhere-and-would-we-even-want-it-193301">delivering packages</a>. But what do the birds make of this invasion of their territory? </p>
<p>With strict animal ethics approval, we flew drones towards <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14467">flocks of birds</a> in Queensland’s Moreton Bay. We found many species were not disturbed, provided the drone was small and flew above 60m. </p>
<p>The exception was the critically endangered eastern curlew, which became alarmed and flew away – even when a tiny drone approached at the maximum legal altitude of 120m. But when the eastern curlew took flight, other nearby species were often startled, creating a domino effect that eventually caused the whole flock to take flight.</p>
<p>Drone disturbance can interrupt birds as they rest or feed. It can even cause them to avoid some locations altogether. If birds are consistently interrupted or scared away from their preferred habitats, they may find it difficult to eat and rest enough to survive and reproduce. This is particularly concerning for species such as the eastern curlew, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-birds-stamina-is-remarkable-it-flies-non-stop-for-5-days-from-japan-to-australia-but-now-its-habitat-is-under-threat-165964">migrate thousands of kilometres to breed</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A drone’s view of a flock of royal spoonbill. Drone disturbance may contribute to population declines. Joshua Wilson.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-birds-stamina-is-remarkable-it-flies-non-stop-for-5-days-from-japan-to-australia-but-now-its-habitat-is-under-threat-165964">This bird's stamina is remarkable: it flies non-stop for 5 days from Japan to Australia, but now its habitat is under threat</a>
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<h2>Yet another threat to shorebirds</h2>
<p>We studied a diverse group of birds typically found along coastlines, known as shorebirds. Heartbreakingly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-numbers-are-in-australia-must-do-more-to-protect-migratory-birds-5839">their global population has plummeted</a> as they continue to battle <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-birds-stamina-is-remarkable-it-flies-non-stop-for-5-days-from-japan-to-australia-but-now-its-habitat-is-under-threat-165964">habitat destruction</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-get-smarter-to-save-shorebirds-from-rising-seas-41603">sea level rise</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/birds-on-beaches-are-under-attack-from-dogs-photographers-and-four-wheel-drives-heres-how-you-can-help-them-155962">disturbance</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/be-still-my-beating-wings-hunters-kill-migrating-birds-on-their-10-000km-journey-to-australia-138382">hunting</a>. </p>
<p>The last few decades have been bleak for the eastern curlew, which is the world’s largest migratory shorebird. Research in 2011 indicated a population decline of <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/action-plan/priority-birds/eastern-curlew">80% over three generations</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A side view of an eastern curlew wading in water, with the shore in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536442/original/file-20230710-15-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The eastern curlew is a critically endangered shorebird that is highly sensitive to drone-induced disturbance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">JJ Harrison</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While drones are unlikely to have played a major role in shorebird decline so far, our results, combined with the increasing presence of drones along our coastline, indicate they could become <a href="https://theconversation.com/contested-spaces-saving-nature-when-our-beaches-have-gone-to-the-dogs-72078">yet another source of disturbance</a> for these birds, many of which are already endangered.</p>
<h2>Use with care</h2>
<p>At the same time, drones have proven to be a valuable tool. They’ve been used to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-19/giant-drones-dropping-tree-seeds/101150496">plant trees</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-drones-can-improve-healthcare-delivery-in-developing-countries-49917">deliver healthcare</a> in developing countries, and have even proven useful for bird conservation. </p>
<p>Drones can observe birds in places that are hard to reach on foot, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-scarecrows-and-caribou-counters-using-drones-for-conservation-36847">birds of prey nesting in tree tops</a>, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-used-drones-to-track-the-feeding-habits-of-seabirds-new-research-160744">seabirds feeding on tidal inlets</a>. In some cases, they can even be <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-duck-challenge-shows-drones-can-outdo-people-at-surveying-wildlife-90018">more accurate</a> compared to traditional ground-based survey methods.</p>
<p>Shorebirds spread out across vast mudflats to feed, making it very difficult to survey them on foot and identify critical foraging habitats. Our research has shown that, for certain species, drones may overcome this barrier, providing information that may be pivotal in arresting shorebird population declines.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HFPiSFwPmNQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Drones may be a valuable tool for surveying shorebirds as they spread out across vast mudflats to feed. Joshua Wilson.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drones can be beneficial in many ways, but we must identify <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-guide-to-using-drones-to-study-wildlife-first-do-no-harm-57069">when and how drones can be used</a> to minimise potential harm. In some locations, such as <a href="https://parks.des.qld.gov.au/before-you-visit/visit-with-care/drone-safety#local_restrictions_on_parks_and_forests">some Australian national parks</a>, drone use is already prohibited or restricted. But managers need to understand how drones affect wildlife to inform these regulations.</p>
<p>Our findings provide clear-cut parameters around how much space to give birds to keep drone disturbance to a minimum. In most cases this is about 60m, but it can vary significantly between species. For the eastern curlew, we don’t recommend approaches within 250m, even with small drones.</p>
<p>The Moreton Bay Marine Park, where this research was undertaken, is the single <a href="https://www.eaaflyway.net/importance-of-moreton-bay-to-far-eastern-curlew/">most important site in Australia</a> for the eastern curlew. Disturbing shorebirds within the marine park is an offence that can result in fines. The Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service has already used our findings to place conditions on research projects and media activities involving drones.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536441/original/file-20230710-21-1c8qad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536441/original/file-20230710-21-1c8qad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536441/original/file-20230710-21-1c8qad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536441/original/file-20230710-21-1c8qad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536441/original/file-20230710-21-1c8qad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536441/original/file-20230710-21-1c8qad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536441/original/file-20230710-21-1c8qad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Within Queensland’s Moreton Bay Marine Park, it is an offence to disturb shorebirds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Des Thureson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sharing the skies</h2>
<p>We recommend organisations with influence on this issue, such as the Civil Aviation Safety Authority and national parks authorities, regulate drone use near bird flocks – especially those containing at-risk and highly sensitive species. </p>
<p>We also encourage those researchers considering adding drones to their conservation toolkit to carefully evaluate the risk of disturbance before using them to conduct wildlife surveys.</p>
<p>By understanding how shorebirds react to drones, we can inform effective and efficient management actions. Regulating drone use near critical shorebird habitats will help us to avoid exacerbating population declines, while still allowing the use of a valuable tool, where appropriate.</p>
<p>Hopefully, through small steps like this we can arrest the decline of shorebird populations, ensuring we can continue to share our shorelines with these beautiful birds for generations to come.</p>
<p><em>This research was supported by <a href="https://moretonbayfoundation.org/research/surveying-shorebirds/">The Moreton Bay Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://waders.org.au/">Queensland Wader Study Group</a>. It was conducted under strict ethical clearance with the purpose of benefiting the birds with the knowledge gained.</em></p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eyes-on-the-world-drones-change-our-point-of-view-and-our-truths-143838">Eyes on the world – drones change our point of view and our truths</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209391/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Wilson receives funding from The Moreton Bay Foundation and The Queensland Wader Study Group. </span></em></p>Drone use has increased dramatically, but what effect will this have on our endangered shorebirds? New research shows the eastern curlew is easily startled, prompting others to take flight.Joshua Wilson, PhD Candidate, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073282023-06-13T13:21:20Z2023-06-13T13:21:20ZUFOs: what we’ll learn from the Nasa panel investigating sightings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531136/original/file-20230609-15-tsj0jg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C8%2C5604%2C3707&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/science-fiction-concept-spooky-hooded-figure-1384051946">Raggedstone / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://science.nasa.gov/uap">A committee set up by Nasa</a> has examined about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQo08JRY0iM">800 reports</a> of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs), or what most of us would call UFOs (unidentified flying objects). Nasa defines these events as sightings “that cannot be identified as aircraft or known natural phenomena from a scientific perspective”. </p>
<p>The creation of this committee shows that Nasa is taking potential extraterrestrial events very seriously. On Wednesday, May 31 2023, the committee <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQo08JRY0iM">held its first public meeting</a> to discuss what it is doing and what it has found so far, ahead of a full report later this year. </p>
<p>It revealed some reports are easy to explain as boats, planes or weather, some had comical, lunch-based origins, and only a few remain a mystery.</p>
<p>The committee is led by astrophysicist David Spergel and is made up of a team of experts ranging from university professors to a former astronaut. The study has been using declassified reports and images to try to explain some of the mysterious reports, which come from all sorts of sources including military personnel and commercial airline pilots.</p>
<p><a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-red/s3fs-public/atoms/files/Dr.%20Sean%20Kirkpatrick%20Remarks%20for%20NASA%20Public%20Meeting%20on%20UAP.pdf">Sean Kirkpatrick</a>, director of the US Defence Department’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), which also investigates such claims, says it receives between 50 and 100 new reports of UAPs each month. </p>
<p>While UAPs are essentially just a different name for UFOs, they don’t specifically have to be in the air. Any anomalous phenomena are included, whether they are on land, sea, air or space, so this is a slightly wider definition than just unidentified flying objects. </p>
<p>Kirkpatrick also says that most UAPs are easily explained – for example, boats that are low on the horizon tricking pilots with strange perspectives. Only about 2-5% of the database is truly anomalous and cannot yet be explained.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QKHg-vnTFsM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An unexplained aerial object (centre) is captured by a US military aircraft.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many examples of such events that initially appear mysterious but have innocent explanations. One example occurred at an observatory in Australia, where <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/may/05/microwave-oven-caused-mystery-signal-plaguing-radio-telescope-for-17-years">bizarre radio signals were detected</a>. The confusing signals had strange characteristics, but researchers observed that they were mostly seen around lunch time. It turns out that the instruments were observing microwaves leak out from the lunch room as people prepared their food.</p>
<h2>Declassified information</h2>
<p>Some of the data being studied by Nasa has been declassified – cleared for release – by the US military. Whether or not footage is classified is determined by who and what took it, not what the footage was of. For example, if a fighter jet took a photo of the Statue of Liberty it would be classified. Not because of the subject, but because of what took the photo. The US doesn’t want to show off its imaging capabilities to the whole world.</p>
<p>Another amusing revelation came from Scott Kelly, a former NASA astronaut with an impressive resumé, who is also on Nasa’s UAP committee. He has decades of experience as a navy pilot, spent an entire year on the International Space Station, and now sits on the UAP committee. </p>
<p>At the recent panel meeting, he described a flight near Virginia Beach, during which he and his co-pilot were convinced they flew right by a UFO. Upon re-examination, it turned out to be something much more down-to-Earth. Kelly said: “I didn’t see it. We turned around, we went to look at it, it turns out it was Bart Simpson – a balloon.”</p>
<p>This highlights the difficulty of analysing footage and reports that come from such a wide range of sources. Much of the data used at the moment is low quality, making it harder to unravel the mysteries it might contain. As a result, the committee is hoping to remove the stigma around reporting sightings to encourage more people to come forward with their anomalous observations.</p>
<p>In particular, it hopes that commercial pilots will become less reluctant to report strange encounters. Pilot reports might help explain more of the footage the committee receives, especially if some of it is high quality, reliable data.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M6Wmap12xm0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Pentagon recently released several videos of unexplained phenomena, including a round object spotted by a military drone.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indeed, the quality of recordings was the biggest issue the panel faced in its preliminary analysis. Typically, sightings are of objects that appear small and are often moving in strange ways. According to committee members, the underlying problem was that these sightings or “encounters” are often recorded on cameras or sensors that are not designed to accurately capture these strange events.</p>
<p>An apparent UFO could actually be the result of a glitch in an old camera, or a person’s perspective being tricked by odd lighting and distant objects. </p>
<h2>Online harassment</h2>
<p>These confounding factors are turning out to be difficult to disentangle. The other big issue that members of the UAP committee has faced is online harassment, adding to the stigma of doing work in this area. “It is really disheartening to hear of the harassment that our panellists have faced online because they’re studying this topic,” said <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/about-us/leadership/nicola-fox">Nicola Fox, science chief at Nasa</a>. “Harassment only leads to further stigmatisation.”</p>
<p>Since this public meeting, an American whistleblower with a background in government intelligence has claimed that the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/06/whistleblower-ufo-alien-tech-spacecraft">US may be in possession of even more concrete evidence of UAPs</a>. Nasa has not responded to this claim, although no additional evidence has yet been presented by the whistleblower.</p>
<p>While the studies so far haven’t found anything that can be declared extraterrestrial, the public meeting shows an interesting change of pace for Nasa and UFO sightings. In the past, the agency has mostly sought to debunk claims, but now it is very publicly investigating reports and discussing what it finds on live TV.</p>
<p>Later this year, a full report will be released with even more details and findings from these investigations. No UFOs or aliens just yet, but Nasa is now taking claims of the UAPs very seriously and seems determined to understand them all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Pattison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nasa is taking reports of unidentified objects seriously, but it hasn’t found aliens yet.Christopher Pattison, Researcher at the Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064982023-06-13T01:54:54Z2023-06-13T01:54:54ZWhat is a ‘toroidal propeller’ and could it change the future of drones? An expert explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530812/original/file-20230608-19-dgdz6q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C1088%2C673&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ll.mit.edu/news/six-lincoln-laboratory-inventions-win-rd-100-awards">Glen Cooper/MIT</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The basic configuration of traditional propellers has not fundamentally changed since the first powered flight <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Wright-brothers">by the Wright brothers in 1903</a>.</p>
<p>However, as engineers learn more about aerodynamics and attempt new experiments, propellers are evolving to more complex shapes. These feature multiple blades, high sweep angles, blade tip devices and other features to optimise performance in different conditions.</p>
<p>A recent advancement in propeller technology are “toroidal” propellers. These devices are ring-shaped, with the blades looping around each other. A few recent <a href="https://newatlas.com/aircraft/toroidal-quiet-propellers/">articles</a> and <a href="https://undecidedmf.com/why-is-this-propeller-getting-so-much-attention/">videos</a> have been hyping these – but how “revolutionary” are they, really?</p>
<h2>Refining the shape</h2>
<p>In 2017, researchers at <a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US10836466B2/en?q=(Toroidal+Propeller)&oq=Toroidal+Propeller">MIT filed a patent</a> for toroidal propellers. Their patent claims the invention is more efficient than traditional propellers and is less noisy.</p>
<p>Coincidentally, already in 2012, US engineering company <a href="https://www.sharrowmarine.com/">Sharrow Marine</a> also developed a toroidal propeller for boats; they have demonstrated it to be more efficient and quieter than traditional marine propellers. </p>
<p>The reason toroidal propellers may be quieter is because of their complex shape – it minimises the strength of the vortex (a spiralling movement of air, water, or another fluid) that naturally happens over propeller blade tips.</p>
<p>This happens because there’s a high-pressure region under the blade, and low pressure above it. As high-pressure air from under the blade moves towards the low-pressure region above it, it travels in a spiral – a vortex.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing low pressure above a plane wing and high pressure below it, with an arrow indicating air movement at the tip" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531065/original/file-20230609-29-ovqfkz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tip vortex happens due to different pressures below and above the propeller blade or airplane wing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This phenomenon is not unique to propeller blades, which are essentially rotating wings. The wing of a plane also experiences this phenomenon. Engineers have done much research on <a href="https://akademiabaru.com/submit/index.php/arfmts/article/view/2734">wingtip devices</a> that can minimise this.</p>
<p>The use of closed-loop structures – like in a toroidal propeller – is one way of reducing tip vortices.</p>
<p>Even though the basic propeller shape has remained the same since its invention, many propeller blade designs have been put forward. To test these, engineers need to perform design trade-off studies. Some of these approaches have been tested to try and make <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0376042112000644">helicopter blades</a> and <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8400169/">drones</a> more efficient and less noisy.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530811/original/file-20230608-22-g3nm04.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530811/original/file-20230608-22-g3nm04.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530811/original/file-20230608-22-g3nm04.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530811/original/file-20230608-22-g3nm04.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1177&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530811/original/file-20230608-22-g3nm04.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530811/original/file-20230608-22-g3nm04.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530811/original/file-20230608-22-g3nm04.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Illustration from MIT’s 2017 patent, showing a regular propeller in 5a and a toroidal propeller in 5b.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US10836466B2/en?q=(Toroidal+Propeller)&oq=Toroidal+Propeller">US Patent US10836466B2</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No magic propeller</h2>
<p>It’s important to understand propeller geometry must be optimised for a specific “operational envelope”. This means the properties of the fluid or air it operates in, rotation speed, forward speed, and other details. Outside that envelope, the propeller will perform poorly.</p>
<p>So far, nobody has achieved the magical propeller geometry that will achieve low noise and high efficiency for all operating conditions and scales. Toroidal propellers are no exception – from the sparse results available so far, their advantages are not yet fully quantified. </p>
<p>Comparing a well-designed toroidal propeller to a poorly designed traditional propeller will show a significant improvement, but is not a fair comparison.</p>
<p>Well-designed toroidal propellers may have advantages in specific operating conditions, such as dense fluids or a specific range of speeds. However, the question remains as to how a toroidal propeller compares to a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hanbo-Jiang/publication/362262696_Toward_high-efficiency_low-noise_propellers_A_numerical_and_experimental_study/links/62eb2cee88b83e7320a92a3b/Toward-high-efficiency-low-noise-propellers-A-numerical-and-experimental-study.pdf">well-designed traditional propeller</a> for the same conditions.</p>
<p>This is a challenge, since improvements are always relative to a benchmark – which may not be the most efficient design to start with.</p>
<p>Another aspect of a fair comparison that doesn’t seem to have been published for toroidal propellers is comparing different propellers at the same <a href="https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/beginners-guide-to-aeronautics/what-is-thrust/">thrust force</a>. Only then you can see the true advantages regarding noise reduction and energy required to spin the propeller.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-to-deliver-incessant-buzzing-noise-and-packages-116257">Drones to deliver incessant buzzing noise, and packages</a>
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<h2>Home experiments are not representative</h2>
<p>An <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8L8I0dLh_o">MIT announcement</a> earlier this year about toroidal propellers winning one of MIT Lincoln Laboratory’s 2022 R&D 100 Awards generated significant excitement. There’s been <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C10XgojHu44">widespread experimentation</a> with 3D-printed toroidal propellers, but not all of these have delivered positive results.</p>
<p>This may be due to un-optimised geometry and poor scientific rigour by the general public conducting some of these experiments. This gives the scientific community a research opportunity – to truly assess and optimise toroidal <em>and</em> traditional propellers to enhance their performance. </p>
<p>Previous optimisation studies have been conducted, some of which even use <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.au/news/all-news/2021/mar/quiet-propellers">machine-learning</a> techniques to identify suitable geometries. Engineers are also trying to make propellers that sound less annoying, by considering how <a href="https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/6.2021-0713">humans perceive sound</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/E8L8I0dLh_o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Expensive and hard to scale</h2>
<p>Toroidal propellers also have clear disadvantages. The main one is the difficulty to scale them to mass production due to their complex geometry, which leads to high production costs. </p>
<p>The complex structure also requires special care to avoid unwanted vibrations – a significant issue when rotating at high speeds. This also adds to higher manufacturing costs. </p>
<p>When it comes to using toroidal propellers for drones, their heavier weight will also have implications on the responsiveness and stability of the drone. This is critical when <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2504-446X/7/1/22">operating in windy and turbulent conditions</a> such as windy weather.</p>
<p>Overall, toroidal propellers are an exciting recent development in propeller design, at least in some cases. While they can be more quiet, they won’t completely replace traditional props just yet – there’s no single propeller design that will suit all situations.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/got-a-drone-for-christmas-know-the-law-before-taking-to-the-skies-70341">Got a drone for Christmas? Know the law before taking to the skies</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abdulghani Mohamed is a researcher at RMIT university who receives funding from a few companies for undertaking aerodynamic optimisation. </span></em></p>Can one invention revolutionise propellers, whose basic design has been around for over 100 years? Not so fast.Abdulghani Mohamed, Senior Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067972023-06-01T13:44:45Z2023-06-01T13:44:45ZMoscow drone attacks are a morale booster for Ukraine and a warning for Russia – here’s why<p>A wave of approximately 30 drones <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/what-do-we-know-about-ukraines-drone-strike-moscow-2023-05-30/">appeared</a> in skies around the Russian capital, Moscow, on May 30. Though widely sensationalised as a major attack against the heart of the Russian government, they caused only <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65753825">minor damage</a>, mostly to high-rise buildings.</p>
<p>These drones were not intended to cause major destruction. Rather, they were meant to send a message that Ukraine – which has <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d6ab357a-feb2-11ed-be2d-6982544ae552">not claimed</a> responsibility for the strikes – has both the capacity and will to strike back at the capital of its enemy invader.</p>
<p>Although different in scale, this is not the first such strike against Moscow. In early May, Russia alleged that Ukraine had targeted Vladimir Putin with a drone strike, which Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, promptly <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65471904">denied</a>. And Ukraine is thought to have been behind a series of <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-drones-are-transforming-the-conflict-bringing-russia-on-to-the-frontline-196229">drone strikes against airbases</a> in Russia’s Kursk, Saratov and Ryazan regions, up to 300 miles inside Russian territory.</p>
<p>More recently, the Russian defence ministry <a href="https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12468312@egNews">claimed</a> that a Ukrainian drone attack on one of its spy ships the Black Sea, the Ivan Khurs, had failed. There have also been drone strikes against Russian <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drone-sparks-fire-russian-refinery-governor-2023-05-31/">oil pipelines and refineries</a> including near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fire-oil-refinery-russias-krasnodar-likely-caused-by-drone-governor-2023-05-31/">crucial</a> oil export hub for Russia. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-drone-attack-on-kremlin-logic-suggests-a-false-flag-to-distract-russians-ahead-of-victory-day-on-may-9-204960">Ukraine war: drone 'attack' on Kremlin – logic suggests a false flag to distract Russians ahead of Victory Day on May 9</a>
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<p>Drone strikes are not the only way in which the war has come home to Russia. The Belgorod region, to the north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, has seen a spectacular <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65674773">ground assault</a> raid by the so-called <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0b57c31b-814d-4554-91d8-d49b066cea69">Russian Volunteer Corps and Free Russia Legion</a> (two Ukraine-based far-right Russian militia groups), which took the Russian military two days to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/175720c7-9312-4a56-964a-d20f8ec5377a">repel</a>.</p>
<p>Because of its strategic location as a training and staging ground, Belgorod has repeatedly come under attack. In October 2022, two gunmen <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63273599">killed</a> 11 soldiers at a training ground, wounding a further 15. The region has also been <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-belgorod-drone-explosion-ukraine-border/32358759.html">repeatedly</a> struck by Ukrainian artillery, missiles and drones since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. These <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belgorod-governor-says-eight-wounded-by-ukrainian-shelling-civilians-be-2023-06-01/">strikes</a> have become more frequent and intense in recent weeks.</p>
<h2>Intensifying air war</h2>
<p>The bigger picture that emerges from all this has two important dimensions. First, it suggests that at the moment, there is a lull in the ground war and an intensification of the air war. This comes after Russia’s Wagner paramilitary group finally <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-wagner-army-starts-handing-bakhmut-over-regular-troops-2023-05-25/">captured</a> the embattled city of Bakhmut on May 20.</p>
<p>The costs of the intensifying air war are particularly borne by Ukraine, which has endured <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-dead-further-nighttime-kyiv-attack-city-officials-2023-06-01/">daily waves</a> of drone and missile attacks since then, including on its capital Kyiv. </p>
<p>None of this has been a gamechanger for either side. If anything, it has demonstrated Russian vulnerabilities that expose the Kremlin’s version of the “special military operation” for what it is – a full-on war in which even the Russian capital is not safe from air strikes, let alone areas closer to the border with Ukraine. </p>
<p>But it has also made it easier for Kyiv to lobby western allies successfully for more military support, demonstrating the need for, and usefulness of, both air defence systems and advanced attack drones and missiles – such as the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles which, <a href="https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1662906502410018816?s=19&t=0dSwrrGfhk9DkVeHtWhVLw">according</a> to Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, “hit 100% of their targets”. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-zelenskys-diplomatic-tour-has-improved-the-ground-for-a-fresh-military-offensive-but-it-needs-to-come-soon-206206">Ukraine war: Zelensky's diplomatic tour has improved the ground for a fresh military offensive – but it needs to come soon</a>
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<h2>Deportation plans</h2>
<p>The second dimension is this: while the air war and protracted battle over Bakhmut have captured most media attention, Russia has dug in deep in the Ukrainian territories that it captured and now illegally occupies. Defences against an expected Ukrainian offensive have been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65615184">massively fortified</a> along the around 1,000km of frontline and along the beaches of Crimea.</p>
<p>But Russia is also digging in in other ways. On April 27, Putin signed a decree that <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-ukraine-passport-forced-citizenship-donetsk-luhansk/">forces</a> residents in the occupied territories either to accept Russian citizenship or become stateless. And at the end of May, the Russian president <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3715634-putin-legalises-elections-deportation-on-occupied-territory-of-ukraine.html">approved</a> amendments to existing legislation of martial law, including forcible population transfers and holding of elections in territories where martial law has been declared.</p>
<p>This suggests that Russia is unlikely to attempt to capture additional Ukrainian territories – at least, not for now. Rather, the Kremlin seeks to consolidate its hold on what it already has illegally annexed. This is most likely an attempt to withstand Ukrainian pressure during <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/16/ukraine-spring-offensive-russia-war-putin/">Kyiv’s anticipated offensive</a> until it runs out of steam.</p>
<p>A failure by Ukraine to regain significant ground on the battlefield, in the Kremlin’s logic, might increase the chances of a ceasefire that would further strengthen its territorial control. Such an outcome might also fracture the west’s united front of support for Ukraine, especially ahead of another winter war and as the US is heading into a fiercely contested presidential election in 2024.</p>
<h2>Ukraine’s message to Russia</h2>
<p>Ukraine’s best chance of avoiding such an outcome is to make significant gains in its counteroffensive campaign. The drone strikes on Moscow can be seen as preparations for that. They will provide a boost to morale for the Ukrainian army and people, ahead of what is likely to be a costly and painful military push. They demonstrate that Ukraine is ready to take the fight to the enemy, and that no one is invulnerable to their retribution.</p>
<p>In attacking deep inside Russia, these strikes will also force Russia to keep air defences close to symbolically and strategically important assets, rather than deploying them closer to the frontline with Ukraine. </p>
<p>The attacks also send a message to the Russian people that the “special military operation” is making them less, not more, secure. Putin has so far presented the war as something that has had little impact on Russian daily lives. These drone attacks and the coming counteroffensive, with all the destruction and casualties it is sure to bring, will puncture that lie.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hastings Dunn has previously received funding from the ESRC, the Gerda Henkel Foundation, the Open Democracy Foundation and has previously been both a NATO and a Fulbright Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London and Co-Coordinator of the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions.</span></em></p>Drone strikes in Moscow are just one sign of an intensifying air war ahead of Ukraine’s offensive.David Hastings Dunn, Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of BirminghamStefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067412023-05-31T12:40:17Z2023-05-31T12:40:17ZDrone strikes hit Moscow and Kyiv – in the growing world of drone warfare, anything goes when it comes to international law<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529174/original/file-20230530-21-ynq73b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russian security forces take measures near a damaged site following a drone strike on May 30, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1258281328/photo/drone-attack-in-moscow-damages-several-buildings-with-no-casualties.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=fFRqMsFBSdxa7qh4flT00Xviw-RiQwO4Yhrtho9x0LE=">Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At least eight drone <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-air-defences-battle-fresh-wave-russian-attacks-2023-05-30/">strikes hit Moscow</a> in the early morning of May 30, 2023, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-30/several-moscow-buildings-damaged-in-drone-attack-mayor-says#xj4y7vzkg">damaging several buildings</a> and injuring civilians.</p>
<p>This follows Russia’s targeting residential buildings in Ukraine with a wave <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/30/world/russia-ukraine-drones-news#russia-ukraine-kyiv-strikes">of drone attacks</a> in late May, killing civilians.</p>
<p>While Ukraine has said it is <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-30-23/h_c2b6c6339841c69d4e2ebc3543598043">not “directly” responsible</a> for the strikes on Moscow, Russia’s government has called the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/30/world/russia-ukraine-drones-news">strikes a “terrorist attack</a>.” </p>
<p>For more than a year, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/drone-attacks-russia-bryansk-kursk-ukraine-kyiv-missiles-1800525">daily life in Ukraine</a> has been marked by aerial vehicles <a href="https://rmas.fad.harvard.edu/unmanned-aircraft-systems-drones">known as drones</a> littering the sky, creating unease and inflicting real damage in the war with Russia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1165260201/russian-drone-strike-ukraine">Both Russia</a> and Ukraine are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-army-revamps-commercial-drones-attack-russian-tanks-trenches-2023-05-16/">using drones</a> in this war to remotely locate targets and drop bombs, among other purposes.</p>
<p>Today, drones are used in various <a href="https://www.deseret.com/23663271/things-you-can-do-with-a-drone">other conflicts but</a> are also used to <a href="https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/drone-delivery-services/">deliver packages</a>, <a href="https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2687/Drones-are-helping-scientists-understand-major-weather-events">track weather</a> and entertain drone hobbyists.</p>
<p>Military drones range from small consumer quadcopters to remotely piloted warplanes – and all types are being used by militaries <a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-over-ukraine-what-the-war-means-for-the-future-of-remotely-piloted-aircraft-in-combat-197612">around the world</a>. </p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/tara-sonenshine">public diplomacy</a> and foreign policy – and a former United States undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs – I know how important it is for people to understand drones and their proliferation, given the risks of war, terrorism and accidental drone clashes in the world today.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing camouflage clothing and a green hat extends his hand and a small drone flys away from him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527107/original/file-20230518-21-rp7ann.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Ukrainian soldier launches a drone from his hand in November 2022 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1448799062/photo/drone-school-instructors-teach-ukrainian-military-aerial-reconnaissance-and-drone-control-in.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=Ck4_N_iB9fcDwMnGvQwUHnv658v0CFkv2WTjIDaZEqE=">Elena Tita/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A buying spree</h2>
<p>The U.S. is among more than 100 countries using drones in times of conflict. </p>
<p>Terrorists have also been <a href="https://www.un.org/counterterrorism/sites/www.un.org.counterterrorism/files/2118451e-vt-mod5-unmanned_aircraft_systems_final-web.pdf">known to deploy drones</a> because they are relatively low-cost weapons with high degrees of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/nov/18/killer-drones-how-many-uav-predator-reaper">civilian damage</a>.</p>
<p>Consumer drone shipments, globally, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1234658/worldwide-consumer-drone-unit-shipments/">topped 5 million units</a> in 2020 and are expected to surpass 7 million by 2025.</p>
<p><a href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/how-doctrine-and-delineation-can-help-defeat-drones/">Sales of drones globally</a> were up 57% from 2021 to 2022. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1754">the exponential rise</a> in drone purchases over the last few years, there are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/world/asia/china-taiwan-drones.html">few constraints for buyers</a>, creating a wild, wild west of uncontrolled access and usage. </p>
<p>Each country is free to decide when and where drones fly, without answering to any other country or international authority governing drones. There is little on-the-ground guidance on the rules of the sky. </p>
<h2>Different purposes</h2>
<p>Each country has a unique interest in getting and using drones.</p>
<p>China is increasingly <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/huddle/2022/11/23/the-chinese-drones-over-washington-00070641">using sophisticated drones</a> for covert surveillance, especially in international waters to patrol the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea">disputed islands in the South China Sea</a>. Its expanding drone program has influenced other countries like the U.S. to also invest <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike-video.html">more in the technology</a>.</p>
<p>Turkey’s military has a highly sophisticated drone, the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/16/the-turkish-drone-that-changed-the-nature-of-warfare">Bayraktar TB2</a>, which is capable of carrying laser-guided bombs and small enough to fit in a flatbed truck.</p>
<p>The United Arab Emirates imports drones from China and Turkey to <a href="https://drones.rusi.org/countries/united-arab-emirates">deploy in Yemen and Libya</a> to monitor warlords in case conflict breaks out.</p>
<p>And South Korea is considering <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-koreas-yoon-vows-advance-creation-military-drone-unit-2022-12-27/">starting a special drone unit</a> after it failed to respond to a recent North Korean drone incursion. When North Korea deployed five drones toward its southern neighbor in December 2022, South Korea <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/10/south-korea-drone-defense-leaked-documents/">had to scramble its fighter jets</a> to issue warning shots.</p>
<h2>No rules in the air</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/world-drones/who-has-what-countries-with-armed-drones/#:%7E:text=Over%20three%2Ddozen%20countries%20in,produced%20their%20UCAVs%20at%20home.">countries with armed drones</a> are individually navigating their own rules instead of an international agreed-upon set of regulations.</p>
<p>International law prohibits the <a href="https://www.justia.com/international-law/use-of-force-under-international-law/">use of armed force</a> unless the United Nations Security Council authorizes an attack, or in the case of self-defense.</p>
<p>But short of launching a full war, drones can legally be deployed for counterterrorism operations, surveillance and other non-self-defense needs, creating a <a href="https://news.nd.edu/news/the-future-of-us-drone-policy-a-conversation-with-international-law-professor-mary-ellen-oconnell">slippery slope to military conflict</a>.</p>
<p>Figuring out the national and international rules of the sky for drone usage is hard.</p>
<p>For 20 years, experts have tried to create <a href="https://www.thearmstradetreaty.org/hyper-images/file/TheArmsTradeTreaty1/TheArmsTradeTreaty.pdf">international agreements</a> on arms – and some countries supported an informal <a href="https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/att_first_six_1_scope_holtom.pdf">2016 U.N. agreement</a> that recommends countries document the import and export of unmanned aerial vehicles.</p>
<p>But these efforts never evolved into <a href="https://www.stimson.org/2020/drones-and-the-development-of-international-standards/">serious, comprehensive standards and laws</a> that kept pace with technology. There are several reasons for that. In order protect their national sovereignty, governments do not want to release drone data. They also want to avoid duplication of their technology and to maintain their market share of the drone trade.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large gray drone is stationary in front of a large American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527108/original/file-20230518-19-wf6fbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A MQ-9 Reaper drone awaits its next mission over the U.S.-Mexico border in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1439274747/photo/u-s-customs-and-border-protection-agents-pursue-migrants-along-mexico-arizona-border.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=PCc0OCblARHnSxxDsQj9lsCHBVb4wYSRfOL1LTAA7vk=">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>US and drones</h2>
<p>The U.S. has wrestled with how to balance drone warfare as it became involved in overseas operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and other conflict zones.</p>
<p>The U.S. killed a top al-Qaida leader with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/cia-carried-out-drone-strike-afghanistan-us-officials-say-2022-08-01/">a drone strike</a> in Afghanistan in 2022.</p>
<p>But there have been other instances of drone strikes that resulted in unintended casualties and damage.</p>
<p>In 2021, The New York Times reported that a U.S. drone strike <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/world/asia/us-air-strike-drone-kabul-afghanistan-isis.html">on a vehicle thought to contain an Islamic State bomb</a> resulted in the deaths of 10 children – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/07/us/politics/drone-strikes-biden-trump.html">not three civilians</a>, as the U.S. said might have happened.</p>
<p>There is scant public opinion research on how American feel about the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/us-faces-immense-obstacles-to-continued-drone-war-in-afghanistan/">use of drones overseas</a>, which makes building public support for their military use difficult.</p>
<h2>Drone dangers</h2>
<p>Drone dangers are real. </p>
<p>Many drone experts, including myself, believe it is <a href="https://elibrary.law.psu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1162&context=jlia#:%7E:text=A%20drone%20can%20be%20considered%20a%20weapons%20platform%20or%20a,the%20use%20of%20certain%20weapons.">unsafe for each country’s military</a> to make its own decisions on drones with no rules guiding drone transfers, exports, imports and usage – and no major forum to discuss drones, as the technology continues to evolve.</p>
<p>Multiple drones can communicate with each other remotely, creating shared objectives rather than an individual drone path or pattern. Like a swarm of bees, these drones form a deadly and autonomous aerial army ripe for accidents.</p>
<p>With the advent of artificial intelligence and more sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles, drones can change speed, altitude and targeting in seconds, making them even more difficult to track and investigate. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/un-talks-to-ban-slaughterbots-collapsed-heres-why-that-matters.html">Attacks can happen</a> seemingly out of the blue.</p>
<p>Drone detection is another complication, especially on the battlefield. </p>
<p>Ukrainian and Russian forces each want to know exactly where a drone originated. That can be difficult to determine, especially at night, as drones are fast-moving vehicles. Traditional radar detection has grown more sophisticated with new drone detection platforms to more accurately decipher the exact location of the drone operator.</p>
<p>In my view, the world needs new and consistent rules on drone usage for the decade ahead – better international monitoring of drone incursions and more transparency in the outcome of drone attacks.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-drones-are-swarming-the-skies-of-ukraine-and-other-conflict-hot-spots-and-anything-goes-when-it-comes-to-international-law-205898">article originally published on May 19, 2023</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tara Sonenshine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As drone strikes become a more routine part of warfare, a set of rules or standards that can help determine how they are used in warfare is needed, writes a former US diplomat.Tara Sonenshine, Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice in Public Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041142023-05-30T20:07:35Z2023-05-30T20:07:35ZPhotos from the field: spying on Antarctic moss using drones, MossCam, smart sensors and AI<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526950/original/file-20230518-15-jkyrps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C0%2C4001%2C3017&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Krystal Randall</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Antarctic continent conjures visions of white ice and blue sky. But not far from Australia’s Casey Station, 3,880km due south of Perth, moss beds emerge verdant and green. </p>
<p>Sadly, the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0280-0">health of these moss beds is declining</a> due to changing climate conditions, ozone depletion and heatwaves. Yet our understanding of the problem is limited. Conducting research in Antarctica is difficult. Periods of data collection are short, and there can be years between each research opportunity. Fortunately, new technology offers solutions. </p>
<p>In December 2022, we travelled to Casey Station. We spent two months in the field – combining our skills in biology, flying drones, programming and artificial intelligence – to learn more about the moss and find better ways to remotely monitor biological changes. </p>
<p>We mapped large moss beds and trialled a new sensor system that can deliver continuous, year-round moss data. While this research is ongoing, we’re thrilled to share the early results with you here.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Collecting moss data" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527184/original/file-20230519-17-fjyr76.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527184/original/file-20230519-17-fjyr76.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527184/original/file-20230519-17-fjyr76.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527184/original/file-20230519-17-fjyr76.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527184/original/file-20230519-17-fjyr76.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527184/original/file-20230519-17-fjyr76.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527184/original/file-20230519-17-fjyr76.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The scientists at work near Casey Station. Left to right: Dr Johan Barthélemy and Dr Krystal Randall.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Johan Barthélemy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-epic-global-study-of-moss-reveals-it-is-far-more-vital-to-earths-ecosystems-than-we-knew-203141">An epic global study of moss reveals it is far more vital to Earth's ecosystems than we knew</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Miniature forests, bustling with life</h2>
<p>Plants need sunlight, warmth and liquid water. Antarctic plants face months of darkness, freezing temperatures and drought from frozen water – but moss has adapted to this hostile environment. </p>
<p>Moss is the dominant plant life in Antarctica. It provides habitat for invertebrates, microbes and fungi, which make up more than 99% of Antarctica’s land biodiversity. The moss beds resemble miniature forests, bustling with life.</p>
<p>Antarctic moss creates its own warm microclimate, using pigments to absorb sunlight. This warmth aids photosynthesis and helps the mosses to melt snow to obtain liquid water. The tiny hills and valleys across moss beds determine the amount of light mosses receive and creates differences in their microclimates and health.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign to protect the moss beds in Antarctica" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526968/original/file-20230518-17-yttmb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mosses are the dominant plant life in Antarctica.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Krystal Randall</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once we reached the moss, we’d carefully balance on rocks to take samples and place data loggers. These consisted of four sensors that measured canopy temperatures at different positions in the moss bed. We also measured photosynthesis and collected moss samples for pigment analysis, which indicates health and stress levels. </p>
<p>The below photo depicts a moss bed with our equipment attached. You can see the complex micro-topography and a mosaic of healthy and stressed mosses. Healthy moss is green and velvety. Stressed mosses are red and eventually turn grey.</p>
<p>Mosses growing just centimetres apart can experience vastly different microclimates. In the photo below, some mosses had warmed up to 19°C (next to the red marker), while only about 30cm away the moss was at 0.6°C (next to the white marker).</p>
<p>Collecting this data enables us to explore connections between the physical structure of the moss beds, microclimates and indicators of moss health.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-moss-forests-are-drying-and-dying-103751">Antarctica's 'moss forests' are drying and dying</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A moss bed and temperature data logger." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526958/original/file-20230518-15-q1aef2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mosses growing just centimetres apart can experience vastly different climates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Krystal Randall</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Smart sensors, cameras and transmitters</h2>
<p>While in Antarctica, we also tested the first prototype of an intelligent, autonomous and long-term sensing platform. It offers scientists more information than previous data-collection devices as it can collect and transmit data over an extended period outside regular summer field campaigns, including winter time.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Remote sensing platform" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527166/original/file-20230519-23-9at7da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The remote sensing platform watching a moss bed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Johan Barthélemy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The prototype monitored the moss bed near Casey Station for a month and a half. Its sensors captured light intensity, ambient air temperature and humidity, moss canopy temperature and, finally, energy exchanged between soil and air. A webcam, affectionately nicknamed MossCam, captured regular images of the moss bed.</p>
<p>We also installed the first antenna in Antarctica for <a href="https://www.thethingsnetwork.org/article/the-first-lorawan-gateway-running-in-antarctica">the LoRaWAN wireless network</a>. This network is low power, long range and free to use. This allowed us to send data back to Australia in near real-time and <a href="https://uow.to/mosscam">display it on a website dashboard</a> that is visible to Australians only. </p>
<p>After some early bug fixes, the platform performed better than expected. We brought it home at the end of the season for further refinement and deployment next season.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ctiW3TZvF5I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A 24-hour time-lapse captured by MossCam. Johan Barthelemy.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Drones and hyperspectral imaging</h2>
<p>We sent drones on 25 flights, collecting data from two <a href="https://www.ats.aq/e/protected.html">Antarctic Specially Protected Areas</a> (ASPAs 135 and 136). </p>
<p>Operating drones in the Antarctic presents significant challenges. The proximity to the magnetic pole disturbs the GPS navigation, and strong winds make it difficult to fly. Severe cold reduces battery life – and it’s also tough on the operator’s fingers. We customised drones with RTK (<a href="https://blog.emlid.com/introduction-to-rtk-gps/">real-time kinematics</a>, a technique to eliminate position errors) GPS, multiple redundancies and battery warmers to increase their resilience to harsh conditions. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bDTZ9VveO1o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">We used a compact mini drone as a reconnaissance unit, scouting new areas and providing videography like this. Juan Sandino.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our drones could capture 5,000-10,000 images on each flight. They were also equipped with high-tech sensors. These sensors are programmed to record “spectral signatures”, which is a term we use to describe a kind of optical identity or visual “DNA” that differentiates landscape features like moss, rock and snow within the image. </p>
<p>These images will be stitched together and mapped to their ground coordinates. Using machine learning, we will train a model to identify vegetation, including moss, lichen and cyanobacteria. We will also develop vegetation and hydrology maps, 3D fly-throughs and virtual reality experiences to support decision-making around conservation and management. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527162/original/file-20230519-23-1z26d2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527162/original/file-20230519-23-1z26d2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527162/original/file-20230519-23-1z26d2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527162/original/file-20230519-23-1z26d2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527162/original/file-20230519-23-1z26d2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527162/original/file-20230519-23-1z26d2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527162/original/file-20230519-23-1z26d2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hyperspectral data showing healthy moss (blue), stressed moss (red) and rock (green).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Juan Sandino</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drones-help-scientists-check-the-health-of-antarctic-mosses-revealing-climate-change-clues-83817">Drones help scientists check the health of Antarctic mosses, revealing climate change clues</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>One journey ends, while another is just beginning</h2>
<p>Often while we were working, curious penguins wandered over to see what we were doing. Making friends with these locals was always the highlight of the day.</p>
<iframe width="100%" height="758" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wovm6zCZHOM" title="Welcome to our office! Krystal Randall." frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<p>But after a couple of fantastic months in the field, it was time to pack up and head home. On the 60km journey inland to Wilkins Aerodrome we ventured into the Antarctic Circle. We waited in -20°C to watch our plane land on the blue ice runway before boarding and flying back to Tasmania. There, it felt like we’d just woken up from a dream. </p>
<p>Our Antarctic adventure was over, but we all felt so grateful for the experience. </p>
<p>Now we’re exploring the data, to see what stories it can tell, while further developing our moss sensing platform. We hope to return to Antarctica to deploy it at the end of the year. </p>
<p><em>The authors travelled to Casey Station as part of the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF).</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Group photo at the Antarctic Circle sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526955/original/file-20230518-19-8b1c34.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The team as they crossed the Antarctic Circle: Dr Johan Barthélemy (left), Dr Krystal Randall (centre), Ashray Doshi (front), Dr Juan Sandino (right) and Prof Barbara Bollard (back right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Krystal Randall</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/toughness-has-limits-over-1-100-species-live-in-antarctica-but-theyre-at-risk-from-human-activity-181258">Toughness has limits: over 1,100 species live in Antarctica – but they're at risk from human activity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Johan Barthélemy received funding from Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), an Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative. He currently works at NVIDIA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Bollard receives funding from Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future (SAEF), an Australian Research Council (ARC) Special Research Initiative (SRI). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Sandino is affiliated with the QUT Centre for Robotics (QCR), Australia, and receives funding from Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), an Australian Research Council (ARC) Special Research Initiative (SRI).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Krystal Randall is affiliated with the Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions (CSES) in the School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences at the University of Wollongong (UOW). Krystal has previously received funding from the Antarctic Science Foundation, and currently receives funding from Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), an Australian Research Council (ARC) Special Research Initiative (SRI).</span></em></p>It was the trip of a lifetime for an Australian research team studying moss in Antarctica. After two months at Casey Station they returned with great videos and loads of data for further analysis.Johan Barthélemy, Developer Relations Manager, NVIDIA and Honorary Senior Research Fellow, University of Wollongong, University of WollongongBarbara Bollard, Professor of Computational Conservation, Auckland University of TechnologyJuan Sandino, Postdoctoral research fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyKrystal Randall, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.