Articles on economic forecasts

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The poll asked whether forecasting for the budget should be taken away from Treasury and be given to another independent agency. Lukas Coch/AAP

Leave budget forecasting to Treasury: economists

Polled economists say another independent body wouldn't necessairly do a better job of economic forecasting for the budget than Treasury.
If wages just grow at the rate of the last 12 months, rather than at the higher growth in the budget forecasts, income tax collections will be A$7 billion less for 2019-20. Joel Carrett/AAP

Why biased budget forecasts make poor politics

Wonky forecasts show it's time for a new approach that adopts more conservative forecasts, and makes a genuine commitment to budget repair.
South Africans take their cue from what Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan says about the country’s economic outlook. Reuters/Mike Hutchings

Economic forecasting: why it matters and why it’s so often wrong

Forecasts are crucial for all economic and business activity. But looking into the future involves uncertainty and risk. Forecasts may be inaccurate, which creates a serious dilemma for policy makers

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