tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/future-cities-9348/articlesFuture cities – The Conversation2020-12-16T15:21:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1517092020-12-16T15:21:17Z2020-12-16T15:21:17ZFuture cities: new challenges mean we need to reimagine the look of urban landscapes<p>Imagining future cities has long been a favourite activity <a href="https://howwegettonext.com/a-visual-history-of-the-future-c445cba6839a">for architects, artists and designers</a>. Technology is often central in these schemes – it appears as a dynamic and seemingly unstoppable force, providing a neat solution to society’s problems.</p>
<p>But our recent research has suggested that we need to significantly rethink the way we <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/future-cities-9781350011656/">imagine future cities</a>, and move our focus from an overarching technological vision to other priorities, such as environmental sustainability and the need to tackle social inequalities. </p>
<p>We need to answer questions about what can be sustained and what cannot, where cities can be located and where they cannot, and how we might travel in and between them. </p>
<p>The coronavirus pandemic has further reinforced this need. It has profoundly disrupted what we thought we <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/24/pandemic-accelerate-evolution-cities-covid-19-norman-foster">knew about cities</a>. It has further sharpened existing inequalities and brought about major challenges for how we physically live and work together. </p>
<h2>The future – yesterday</h2>
<p>The architect and influential urban planner Eugène Hénard was arguably the first to publicly discuss “future cities” in Europe during his <a href="http://urbanplanning.library.cornell.edu/DOCS/henard.htm">1910 address</a> to the Royal Institute of British Architects in London. His vision anticipated the technological advances of the future, such as aerial transportation. This approach, prioritising technology, was also evoked in cinema in <a href="https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/great-movie-metropolis-2010-restoration-1927">Fritz Lang’s 1927 film Metropolis</a>. </p>
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<img alt="Line drawing of cross section of buildings and street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375419/original/file-20201216-23-1x4p875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375419/original/file-20201216-23-1x4p875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375419/original/file-20201216-23-1x4p875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375419/original/file-20201216-23-1x4p875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375419/original/file-20201216-23-1x4p875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375419/original/file-20201216-23-1x4p875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375419/original/file-20201216-23-1x4p875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A vision of a future street by Eugène Hénard.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Henard_Rue_Future_1911.jpg">Eugène Hénard (1849-1923), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>It was also mirrored by architects such as Le Corbusier in projects such as the 1924 <a href="http://www.fondationlecorbusier.fr/corbuweb/morpheus.aspx?sysId=11&sysLanguage=en-en">Ville Radieuse (The Radiant City)</a>. In this work, Le Corbusier developed his concept of the city as a symmetrical, regulated, and highly centralised landscape. </p>
<p>Such an approach can be traced through many subsequent visions for cities, portrayed as the physical embodiment of technological prowess. </p>
<h2>A new focus</h2>
<p>But rather than simply focusing on technology to shape our future, we also need to look at it through social and global lenses. These alternative approaches are increasingly urgent. To provide a safe and sustainable world for present and future populations, we need to think beyond “solutionism”. This is the idea that every problem we have has a technological fix.</p>
<p>An identifiable shift in how future cities are being conceived, designed and delivered concerns the people involved in these processes. This ranges from localised projects to global initiatives. For example, the <a href="http://www.participatorycity.org/every-one-every-day">Every One Every Day</a> project in Barking and Dagenham in London aims to make practical participation in neighbourhood projects inclusive and available to all residents. On a much wider scale, the <a href="https://habitat3.org/the-new-urban-agenda/">New Urban Agenda</a> global vision by the United Nations’ Habitat programme, meanwhile, calls for more inclusive and sustainable urbanisation and settlement planning. </p>
<p>We may want our future cities to prioritise environmental renewal. <a href="https://www.stephanemalka.com/portfolio/the-green-machine-i-greening-the-desert-i-sahara-2014/">The Green Machine</a>, a design for a future city by architect Stephane Malka, moves like a mobile oasis, replenishing desert rather than causing more environmental degradation. This future city collects water through air condensation and uses solar power to drive itself over arid landscapes. </p>
<p>These are ploughed and injected with a mixture of water, natural fertiliser and cereal seeds as it passes. Agricultural greenhouses along with livestock farms support the city’s inhabitants and supplement local populations. The project is scaleable and replicable in relation to the number of people needed to be accommodated.</p>
<p>Climate change brings with it the possibility of dramatic sea level rise. <a href="http://www.terreform.org/projects_urban-new-york-city-state.html">Post Carbon City-State</a>, a project by architecture and urban design group Terreform, imagines a submerged New York. The project proposes that, rather than investing in mitigation efforts, the East and Hudson River are allowed to flood parts of Manhattan. </p>
<p>The new city is rebuilt in its surrounding rivers. Former streets become snaking arteries of liveable spaces, embedded with renewable energy resources, green vehicles, and productive nutrient zones. This replaces the current obsession with private car ownership towards more ecological forms of public transport. </p>
<p>Both these projects emphasise responses to the impacts of climate change over technological innovation for its own sake.</p>
<p>Alternatively, the cities of the future may prioritise equality. This is illustrated by spatial design agency <a href="http://www.5thstudio.co.uk/projects/stour-city/">5th Studio’s Stour City, The Enabling State</a>.</p>
<p>This is a future city for 60,000 inhabitants, envisioned along the River Stour and the Port of Harwich in East Anglia, England. Based around the urbanisation and intensification of existing rail and port infrastructure, it features initiatives such as waste to power generation in order to support a viable, low-impact city, with priorities including affordable housing for all.</p>
<p>Imagining these cities helps us understand how we want our future lives to look. But we must open up the opportunity to conceptualise these futures to a wider and more diverse set of people. By doing so, we will be better positioned to rethink the shifts required to safeguard our health, that of other species and the planet we share. This is the significance of visions for tomorrow’s world – and why we need to create new ones today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We need to change how we imagine the cities of the future in order to respond to today’s concerns.Nick Dunn, Professor of Urban Design, Lancaster UniversityPaul Cureton, Senior Lecturer in Design (People, Places, Products), Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1507742020-12-15T14:32:34Z2020-12-15T14:32:34ZSustainable cities after COVID-19: are Barcelona-style green zones the answer?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375084/original/file-20201215-15-1376y5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5760%2C3794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Part of Barcelona's Eixample district. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-barcelona-eixample-residencial-district-1095000005">marchello74/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The lockdowns and restrictions introduced to control the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in huge changes to urban life. Previously bustling city centres remain empty, <a href="https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/cp-cloudpublish-public/p6/5fabfe1720d24.pdf">shunned in favour</a> of suburban or rural areas where social distancing is easier and connections to the outdoors are abundant.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-turn-cities-into-doughnuts-empty-centres-but-vibrant-suburbs-151406">Coronavirus could turn cities into doughnuts: empty centres but vibrant suburbs</a>
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<p>The roll out of vaccines provides hope for a partial restoration of normality in cities. However, the impact of COVID-19 could last much longer. </p>
<p>In particular, the pandemic has shown how damaging congestion, pollution and lack of green space can be – including how these factors have contributed to the <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_covid_urban_world_july_2020.pdf">severity of suffering for city dwellers</a>. We have an opportunity to change city living for the better. </p>
<p>Barcelona offers an example of how city areas can be transformed to reduce pollution and increase access to green space. </p>
<p>The city pioneered the concept of superblocks, first introduced in 2016, as part of green urban planning. Superblocks are <a href="https://theconversation.com/superblocks-barcelonas-car-free-zones-could-extend-lives-and-boost-mental-health-123295">neighbourhoods of nine blocks</a>. Traffic is restricted to major roads around the superblocks, leaving the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZORzsubQA_M">streets inside</a> for pedestrians and cyclists. </p>
<p>Recently, further plans have been announced to expand green zones in the city’s central district, Eixample. This is a major expansion of low-traffic zones, giving priority to pedestrians and cyclists to reduce pollution and provide green spaces. </p>
<p>The new plan will <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11/barcelona-s-new-car-free-superblock-will-be-big">cover 21 streets</a> and have space for 21 new pedestrian plazas at intersections. At least <a href="https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/premsa/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/201111-DOSSIER-Superilla-BarcelonaVDEF.pdf">80% of each street</a> is to be shaded by trees in summer and 20% unpaved. A public competition in May 2021 will decide the final design.</p>
<p>The purpose of the plan is to ensure that no resident will be more than 200 metres from <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54920342">a green space</a>. </p>
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<p>There are many benefits to creating urban green spaces like these. They include an improvement in air quality and noise levels on the car-free streets, and a reduction in levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) from road traffic. Exposure to high level of NO₂ can lead to a range of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK138707/">respiratory problems</a>.</p>
<p>Green spaces have been shown to improve <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4204431/">mental health</a>, as well as lead to a reduction in risk of <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-56091-5_11">obesity and diabetes</a> – conditions which <a href="https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/what-makes-you-at-risk-from-coronavirus">significantly increase vulnerability to COVID-19</a>. </p>
<p>COVID-19 has made the case for green urban planning even more compelling. However, these plans can come at a cost. </p>
<h2>Barriers to green cities</h2>
<p>A particular negative impact of green zones could be a high demand for housing, leading to subsequent rises in property prices. This can lead to <a href="https://undisciplinedenvironments.org/2020/10/20/to-green-or-not-to-green-four-stories-of-urban-injustice-in-barcelona/">gentrification and displacement</a> of local residents and businesses. Care must be taken to make sure that homes remain affordable and urban green zones do not become rich enclaves. </p>
<p>The COVID-19 lockdowns highlighted the difference in living conditions <a href="https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/cp-cloudpublish-public/p6/5fabfe1720d24.pdf">faced by city dwellers</a>. Green initiatives must work for all socio-economic groups, and must not exacerbate <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/26139">existing inequalities</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, while city centres are the usual focus areas for greening initiatives, suburbs and other peripheral areas also need attention. The goal is to reduce carbon dependence in total – not shift it from one area to another, or one sector to another. </p>
<p>The plan should also include steps to make private and public transport completely green. This could include replacing carbon-producing transport system with zero-emission vehicles and providing ample infrastructure such as dedicated lanes and charging stations for electric vehicles.</p>
<p>Cities differ hugely in how they look, shape and operate. One size will not fit all. If other cities choose to follow Barcelona’s model, local issues must be carefully considered. Superblocks work really well in a neat grid system such as in central Barcelona. But many cities do not have a well-designed grid system. </p>
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<img alt="Cyclist on cycle lane" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375128/original/file-20201215-18-m21c47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375128/original/file-20201215-18-m21c47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375128/original/file-20201215-18-m21c47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375128/original/file-20201215-18-m21c47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375128/original/file-20201215-18-m21c47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375128/original/file-20201215-18-m21c47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375128/original/file-20201215-18-m21c47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many cities are looking to expand green initiatives.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cyclists-following-cycle-track-on-street-269488517">Robsonphoto/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>However, the principles of green, environmentally friendly, car-free or restricted-traffic neighbourhoods can be adopted in any city. Examples of schemes include low-traffic neighbourhoods <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-54180647">in London</a>, the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/videos/paris-is-planning-to-become-a-15-minute-city-897c12513b">15-minute city</a> initiative in Paris, or Manchester’s plans for a <a href="https://www.manchestersfinest.com/articles/new-plans-proposed-for-mcr-city-centre-its-going-car-free/">zero-carbon city centre</a>. </p>
<p>While adopting such interventions, it is important to keep citizens’ daily needs in mind to avoid adding extra burdens on them. If motor traffic is to be limited, the availability of public transport must be considered, safe infrastructure for walking and cycling as well as adequate road structure for essential services or deliveries. </p>
<p>Significant capital investment is needed to support these plans. The Barcelona plan is projected to cost <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54920342">€38 million (£34 million)</a>. Much more will be required if it is to roll out to more areas. Cities in the developing world and poorer countries cannot afford such huge sums. Moreover, COVID-19 has left several cities laden with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/next-covid-casualty-cities-hit-hard-by-the-pandemic-face-bankruptcy-142539">huge amount of debt</a>. </p>
<p>Green city initiatives need to be long-term – and created with the support of local people. Recognition of the benefits of green living and informed support of developments will result in positive behaviour changes by the citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150774/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anupam Nanda's research has been sponsored by UK and international public and private funding bodies and companies, including UKRI/Innovate UK, the Real Estate Research Institute in the US, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, the Investment Property Forum and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. He is a board member of the European Real Estate Society.</span></em></p>Making cities greener is a vital endeavour – but one that comes with potential pitfalls.Anupam Nanda, Professor of Urban Economics & Real Estate, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1409072020-07-07T12:57:07Z2020-07-07T12:57:07ZHow drones and aerial vehicles could change cities<p>Drones, personal flying vehicles and air taxis may be part of our everyday life in the very <a href="https://www.nesta.org.uk/project/flying-high-challenge/">near future</a>. Drones and air taxis will create new means of mobility and transport routes. Drones will be used for surveillance, delivery and in the construction sector as it moves towards automation.</p>
<p>The introduction of these aerial craft into cities will require the built environment to change dramatically. Drones and other new aerial vehicles will require landing pads, charging points, and drone ports. They could usher in new styles of building, and lead to more sustainable design. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.routledge.com/Drone-Futures-UAS-in-Landscape-and-Urban-Design/Cureton/p/book/9780815380511">My research</a> explores the impact of aerial vehicles on urban design, mapping out possible future trajectories. </p>
<h2>An aerial age</h2>
<p>Already, civilian drones can vary widely in size and complexity. They can carry a range of items from high resolution cameras, delivery mechanisms and thermal image technology to speakers and scanners. In the public sector, drones are used in disaster response and by the fire service to tackle fires which could endanger firefighters.</p>
<p>During the coronavirus pandemic, drones have been used by the police to enforce <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-drones-used-to-enforce-lockdown-pose-a-real-threat-to-our-civil-liberties-138058">lockdown</a>. Drones normally used in agriculture have <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52109824">sprayed disinfectant</a> over cities. In the UK, drone delivery trials are taking place to carry medical items to the <a href="https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/05/drone-trial-delivery.page">Isle of Wight</a>.</p>
<p>Alongside drones, our future cities could also be populated by vertical takeoff and landing craft (VTOL), used as private vehicles and air taxis.</p>
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<span class="caption">Travelling in vertical takeoff and landing craft (VTOL) could become commonplace in the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/selfdriving-passenger-drone-flying-over-highway-740383369">Chesky/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>These vehicles are familiar to sci-fi fans – the late <a href="http://sydmead.com/">Syd Mead’s </a> illustrations of the Spinner VTOL craft in the film Blade Runner captured the popular imagination, and the screens for the Spinners in Blade Runner 2049 created by <a href="https://territorystudio.com/project/blade-runner-2049/">Territory Studio</a> provided a careful design fiction of the experience of piloting these types of vehicle. </p>
<p>Now, though, these flying vehicles are reality. A number of companies are developing <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09426-0">eVTOL</a> with electric multi-rotor jets, and a whole <a href="https://airspeeder.com/">new motorsport</a> is being established around them. </p>
<p>These aircraft have the potential to change our cities. However, they need to be tested extensively in urban airspace. A study conducted by <a href="https://www.airbusutm.com/uam-resources-community-perception">Airbus</a> found that public concerns about VTOL use focused on the safety of those on the ground and noise emissions.</p>
<h2>New cities</h2>
<p>The widespread adoption of drones and VTOL will lead to new architecture and infrastructure. Existing buildings will require adaptations: landing pads, solar photovoltaic panels for energy efficiency, charging points for delivery drones, and landscaping to mitigate noise emissions. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2020/01/29/top-5-upcoming-retail-drone-delivery-services/">number of companies</a> are already trialling drone <a href="https://x.company/projects/wing/">delivery services</a>. Existing buildings will need to be adapted to accommodate these new networks, and new design principles will have to be implemented in future ones. </p>
<p>The architect Saúl Ajuria Fernández has developed a design for a <a href="https://www.designboom.com/architecture/saul-ajuria-fernandez-droneport-12-25-2016/">delivery drone port hub</a>. This drone port acts like a beehive where drones recharge and collect parcels for distribution. Architectural firm Humphreys & Partners’ <a href="https://humphreys.com/pier-2-apartment-of-the-future/">Pier 2</a>, a design for a modular apartment building of the future, includes a cantilevered drone port for delivery services. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Urban Droneport by Saúl Ajuria.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The Norman Foster Foundation has <a href="https://www.normanfosterfoundation.org/project/droneport/">designed a drone port</a> for delivery of medical supplies and other items for rural communities in Rwanda. The structure is also intended to function as a space for the public to congregate, as well as to receive training in robotics.</p>
<p>Drones may also help the urban environment become more sustainable. Researchers at the <a href="https://www.icd.uni-stuttgart.de/teaching/master-theses/cyber-physical-macro-material-as-a-uav-reconfigurable-architectural-system/">University of Stuttgart</a> have developed a re-configurable architectural roof canopy system deployed by drones. By adjusting to follow the direction of the sun, the canopy provides shade and reduces reliance on ventilation systems.</p>
<p>Demand for air taxis and personal flying vehicles will develop where failures in other transport systems take place. The <a href="https://www.airbusutm.com/uam-resources-community-perception">Airbus research</a> found that of the cities surveyed, highest demand for VTOLs was in Los Angeles and Mexico City, urban areas famous for traffic pollution. To accommodate these aerial vehicles, urban space will <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/future-of-mobility/infrastructure-barriers-to-urban-air-mobility-with-VTOL.html">need to transform</a> to include landing pads, airport-like infrastructure and recharge points.</p>
<p>Furthermore, this whole logistics system in lower airspace (below 500ft), or what I term “hover space”, will need an <a href="https://utm.arc.nasa.gov/index.shtml">urban traffic management system</a>. One great example of how this hover space could work can be seen in a speculative project from design studio <a href="https://superflux.in/index.php/about/#">Superflux</a> in their <a href="https://superflux.in/index.php/work/drones/#">Drone Aviary</a> project. A number of drones with different functions move around an urban area in a network, following different paths at varying heights.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Drone Aviary by Superflux.</span></figcaption>
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<p>We are at a critical period in urban history, faced by <a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/notebook/drones-are-changing-the-face-of-ecology-64527">climatic breakdown</a> and pandemic. Drones and aerial vehicles can be part of a profound rethink of the urban environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cureton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An influx of drone technology will mean changes to how cities are built.Paul Cureton, Senior Lecturer in Design (People, Places, Products), Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1254432019-11-06T11:14:24Z2019-11-06T11:14:24ZFour visions for the future of public transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300236/original/file-20191105-88382-nasrla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=911%2C280%2C4153%2C2337&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/near-future-view-renewable-electrified-city-1524202889?src=0a6d1fff-e98f-435a-b20a-c212a908f828-4-32">Solveig Been/Shutterstock. </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The way people get around is starting to change, and as a professor of transport strategy I do rather wonder if the modes of transport we use today will still be around by the turn of the next century. </p>
<p>Growing up, my favourite book was a children’s encyclopaedia first published in 1953. One double page spread featured an annotated cityscape, showing all aspects of the built environment – most of which we would still be familiar with now. The various modes of transport illustrated – trains, buses, lorries, taxis, motorcycles, bikes, pedestrians and private cars – still work together as a system in fundamentally the same ways. </p>
<p>But a whole range of possible (though not inevitable) societal and technological changes could revolutionise how we travel in the coming decades. These include large-scale responses to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-rebellions-car-free-streets-showcase-the-possibility-of-a-beautiful-safe-and-green-future-124924">climate change agenda</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-good-progress-100-low-carbon-energy-is-still-a-long-way-off-for-the-uk-114949">energy sourcing and security</a>; shifting <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-uk-population-will-look-like-by-2061-under-hard-soft-or-no-brexit-scenarios-117475">demographic trends</a> (such as growing numbers of elderly people); the development of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sharing-economy-could-end-capitalism-but-thats-not-all-45203">collaborative economy</a>; the growing use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvesting-big-data-could-bring-about-the-next-transport-revolution-right-now-77261">big data</a>; and the apparent inevitability of <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-will-change-more-in-the-next-decade-than-they-have-in-the-past-century-113585">driverless cars</a>.</p>
<p>To examine what future urban transport systems might look like, I recently directed <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2018/11/apo-nid204596-1213736.pdf">a future-gazing project</a> for New Zealand’s Ministry of Transport exploring how people might be travelling in the year 2045. I helped develop four scenarios, along two axes of change. </p>
<p>The first axis considered automation – at one end, vehicles are still be driven much like today (partial automation). At the other, they’re driverless (full automation). The second axis related to how dense cities could become – one future where the population is more dispersed (like Los Angeles) and another where it is concentrated at a higher density (more like Hong Kong). With these axes in mind, I generated four possible futures for public transport, which could play out in cities across the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300452/original/file-20191106-12459-10x51mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Choose your fighter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcus Enoch.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Shared shuttles</h2>
<p>In the “shared shuttle” city, demand responsive minibuses, Uber-style taxis and micro-modes – such as shared bicycles, electric bikes and hoverboards – to cover the <a href="https://medium.com/the-stigo-blog/the-last-mile-the-term-the-problem-and-the-odd-solutions-28b6969d5af8">“last mile”</a> to your destination are widespread. Hiring these different forms of transport is simple, thanks to seamless booking and payment systems and a thriving entrepreneurial spirit among a range of commercial, social and government transport providers. Meanwhile, new environmental regulations mean that owning a car is more expensive than it used to be, and private vehicles are restricted to the suburbs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300241/original/file-20191105-88419-1t4lm0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Autonomous shuttle testing takes place in La Défense, Paris, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/la-france-september-22-2017-autonomous-721586557?src=4c5ad0f7-127e-4e21-902c-9589e16eb669-2-33">Sebastien Durand/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flexibility is a core feature of this scenario, with vehicles and services that adjust to the needs of individuals, and with how the space continually adapts to meet the needs of the city as a whole. There’s also a collaborative ethos, reinforced by the development of a more compact and high-density city, while progress toward full automation has been slow because of safety and privacy concerns.</p>
<h2>2. Mobility market</h2>
<p>Private cars still dominate urban transport in the mobility market scenario. Many citizens live and often work in dispersed, low-density suburban areas, since city-centre housing became too expensive for most to afford. Fewer people walk and cycle, because of the long distances involved. And the use of public transport has declined, since less dense transport networks mean there are fewer viable routes, though a limited network of automated trains and buses is still used for trips to the city centre. </p>
<p>Car use has fallen somewhat since the 2010s, because “active management” measures – such as pre-bookable fast lanes and tolls – are now necessary to control congestion, despite the completion of a sizeable road building programme in the recent past. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300240/original/file-20191105-88368-1hyp7z3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pooling resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/autonomous-wireless-remote-connected-car-sharing-1421292086?src=0a6d1fff-e98f-435a-b20a-c212a908f828-4-79">Petovarga/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead, commercially provided pre-paid personalised “mobility packages” are helping to stimulate the use of a whole range of shared mobility options, such as car-pooling, bike hire and air taxi schemes. These now account for around a quarter of all journeys.</p>
<h2>3. Connected corridors</h2>
<p>Society in this high-tech, highly urbanised world of connected corridors is characterised by perceptive but obedient citizens who trade access to their personal data in return for being able to use an extremely efficient transport system. Physically switching between different services or even different modes of travel is hassle free, thanks to well designed interchange points, and fully integrated timetabling, ticketing and information systems.</p>
<p>For instance, travellers might walk, e-cycle or take a demand-responsive minibus to a main route interchange, then board a high frequency rail service to get across town and finally take a shared autonomous taxi to their destination. Each will be guided by a personalised, all-knowing “travel ambassador” app on their smartphone or embedded chip, which will minimise overall travel times or maybe maximise sightseeing opportunities, according to their preferences. </p>
<p>Private cars are not really needed. People trust technology to deliver inexpensive and secure transport services and appreciate living close to work, family and friends.</p>
<h2>4. Plentiful pods</h2>
<p>In this future, fleets of variously-sized <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2015.1024646">driverless pods</a> now provide around three-quarters of those journeys that still need to be taken across the low-density, high-tech city. These pods having largely replaced most existing public transport services, and the vast majority of privately-owned cars. </p>
<p>People do still walk or cycle for some shorter trips. But pods are so convenient, providing affordable point-to-point journeys for those not satisfied by virtual interactions. Passengers can pay even less, if they agree to share with others. Pods are also fully connected to the internet, and are priced and tailored to meet customer needs. Ultimately, pods give people the freedom to work, learn or live where the weather is best or the houses are cheapest.</p>
<p>My research did not pass judgement as to which scenario should be pursued. But it did conclude that public transport will need to evolve to meet future challenges, and that the role of government will still be of key importance going forward, no matter which path is chosen. Personally though, if forced to choose, I think I’d favour a shared shuttle future more than the others - it just seems more sociable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Enoch was employed part-time as a Strategy Director for the duration of the PT2045 project by the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, and this article draws on data and insights gathered and derived during that period. </span></em></p>A whole range of social and technological changes could revolutionise how we travel in the coming decades.Marcus Enoch, Professor in Transport Strategy, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1192352019-08-08T20:04:19Z2019-08-08T20:04:19ZIf we want liveable cities in 2060 we’ll have to work together to transform urban systems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286703/original/file-20190802-169718-19qa9hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Urban greening is just one aspect of the transformation required to ensure our future cities are sustainable, liveable places.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Leane/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>Not everyone wants to live in the inner city and it’s insulting to describe the outer suburbs as the fringe. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This was just one view from a recent workshop where a vision for Australia’s future cities was mapped out. It highlights that <a href="https://theconversation.com/liveable-cities-who-decides-what-that-means-and-how-we-achieve-it-48825">liveability means different things to different people</a>.</p>
<p>But what will the liveability of our cities be like in 40 years’ time? For the CSIRO report, <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/ANO">2019 Australian National Outlook</a>, the authors used scenario analysis to explore prospects for Australia in 2060. This demonstrates that business as usual will mean Australia’s economy and society sleepwalk into the future, a future made worse by failing to tackle major environmental threats. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-for-australia-to-commit-to-the-kind-of-future-it-wants-csiro-australian-national-outlook-2019-118692">It's time for Australia to commit to the kind of future it wants: CSIRO Australian National Outlook 2019</a>
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</p>
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<p>The National Outlook report set out “five key shifts” – industry, urban, energy, land and culture – to prepare us for a better future. </p>
<p>Our research supports the need for these changes. These shifts are related and co-dependent. And, critically, they will all involve cities. </p>
<p>We argue, though, that we need more than “shifts” – we need transformation supported by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13549839.2011.565464">a systems approach</a>.</p>
<h2>Setting the goals of transformation</h2>
<p>All cities are not the same. For this reason, <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/future-earth-australia">Future Earth Australia</a>, a national initiative hosted by the <a href="https://www.science.org.au/about-us/academy">Australian Academy of Science</a>, has held <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/future-earth-australia/projects/sustainable-australian-cities-and-communities">workshops around the country</a>. We have also launched a <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/6VW77MT">national online survey</a>. </p>
<p>The themes arising from the workshops offer valuable insights into how we can apply a systems approach to transforming Australian cities, and the regions and local areas that support our cities. Some key insights are: </p>
<ul>
<li>density is important, but so is liveability </li>
<li>liveability has a different emphasis for each person, but includes green space, access to services, employment and transport<br></li>
<li>the consensus is that we must respond to climate change, through actions that both reduce the rate of change and adapt to it</li>
<li>people both in cities and outside them want explicit attention paid to how urban areas and their hinterlands interact and depend on one another<br></li>
<li>economic regeneration and notions of a circular economy are seen as essential elements of a “transformed” city.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967">This is what our cities need to do to be truly liveable for all</a>
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<p>Importantly, the nuances and variations between cities and regions were important to identity and individuality. Local, context-relevant innovation abounds, but is combined with much re-inventing of wheels. Our process has shown that linking local activity better with city-wide and even national coordination could greatly accelerate progress, while maintaining the sense of local identity. A majority of the world’s countries are actively taking a <a href="https://unhabitat.org/books/global-state-of-national-urban-policy/">national perspective</a> on their urban challenges. </p>
<p>The importance of local nuance is recognised in other parts of the world. In Europe, <a href="http://www.ecoacupuncture.com/transxperimentation">work is under way</a> to build better connections between small and medium-sized cities. </p>
<h2>Wicked problems call for a systems approach</h2>
<p>Urban transformation requires a systems approach to overcome well-documented challenges like urban expansion, decreasing housing affordability, biodiversity loss in peri-urban areas, spending hours in cars, and engaged governance across metropolitan areas. These challenges are tricky because they are caused by behaviours and settings that arise from entwined economic, social and environmental systems. Problems like this are wicked in nature. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wicked-problems-and-how-to-solve-them-100047">Wicked problems and how to solve them</a>
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<p>A systems approach examines how communities, economics, culture, politics, infrastructure, design, planning, knowledge and technology interact and interweave to produce the places we live in. We must also recognise existing <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-your-actions-really-save-the-planet-planetary-accounting-has-the-answer-104005">planetary boundaries</a>.</p>
<p>Tackling these problems with a systems approach means ensuring that as we solve one of them we don’t create new problems in other areas. Or, even better, we solve multiple challenges at once. Responses must integrate bottom-up and top-down interventions across multiple sectors, consider time frames from today into the long term, and recognise the value in collaboratively forging the knowledge and actions we need. </p>
<p>This is why <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/future-earth-australia">Future Earth Australia</a>, the Australian and Oceania network of <a href="http://www.futureearth.org/">Future Earth</a> based at the <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/future-earth-australia">Australian Academy of Science</a>, invited urban thinkers and practitioners from around Australia to a <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/future-earth-australia/projects/sustainable-australian-cities-and-communities">workshop in May 2018</a>. It was designed to <a href="https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/support/future-earth-australia/knowledge-for-sustainable-australian-cities-and-communities.pdf">work towards a consensus</a> on a ten-year plan for transformative knowledge for Australian cities. This workshop built on <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-017-0934-6">recent urban systems scholarship</a>, which identified the need for multisectoral, collaborative and systemic thinking and collaborative design and governance. </p>
<p>We have implemented a series of processes to inform this decadal plan.</p>
<p>First, we interviewed senior decision-makers in government, industry and peak bodies. </p>
<p>We held nine workshops across the country. These involved over 350 participants, representing senior decision-makers in government, industry and peak bodies, community groups and academic researchers. The insights from the workshops have all been <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/future-earth-australia/projects/sustainable-australian-cities-and-communities">published</a>. </p>
<p>And we have designed a <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/6VW77MT">survey that’s now open to anyone living in Australia</a>. </p>
<p>An independent <a href="https://aas.eventsair.com/urban-systems-transformation-sustainable-cities/reference-group">reference group</a> of urban experts from 21 research, policy and practice organisations around the country is overseeing these processes. </p>
<p>Our aim is to encourage all stakeholders to work together. The Future Earth platform can enable partnerships that harness these ideas and knowledge about the transformations needed to create sustainable, liveable cities. </p>
<p>We need better urban knowledge and the many cross-sectoral contributions to the Future Earth urban decadal plan have offered vital directions for future effort.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119235/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tayanah O'Donnell is Director of Future Earth Australia based at the Australian Academy of Science. She has received research funding from the Commonwealth, Queensland, New South Wales, ACT and Victorian governments, and from NCCARF, for climate change adaptation research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Webb has received funding in the past from NCCARF, the CSIRO, the Commonwealth Department of the Environment, and the ACT Government for research on climate change,including urban aspects of climate change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Ryan has received funding from The CRC for Low Carbon Living, Australia. He is a co-director of Eco-Acupuncture International, a multi- university affiliated design-action-research consultancy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Robson has previously worked for a parliamentarian in the Australian Labor Party. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the EU H2020 Program to support Jago Dodson's research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Auty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Future Earth Australia is working to create a long-term national plan of transformation for our cities. As part of this, everyone in Australia is invited to have their say in a survey.Tayanah O'Donnell, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Australian National UniversityBob Webb, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Science, Australian National UniversityChris Ryan, Professor and Director of Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneEleanor Robson, Research and Policy Officer, Future Earth Australia, Australian Academy of ScienceJago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityKate Auty, Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1162662019-05-01T20:18:06Z2019-05-01T20:18:06ZIndonesia isn’t the only country planning new cities. Why not Australia?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271893/original/file-20190501-136784-1vrb4zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indonesia plans to relocate its capital from the sprawling city of Jakarta – and it isn't the only country with plans to build whole new cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AsiaTravel/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The announcement that President Joko Widodo’s government will <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-29/jakarta-to-no-longer-be-capital-of-indonesia-planning-minister/11056306">move Indonesia’s capital</a> to another location, due to the severity of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-29/jakarta,-a-city-under-pressure-from-a-growing-population/8480226">human-induced degradation in Jakarta</a>, highlights a key tension for cities today. In the face of increasingly unsustainable urban environments, do we retrofit existing cities, or relocate and build new cities to achieve greater sustainability? </p>
<p>The answer is both. But each has its challenges.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-cities-its-an-idea-worth-thinking-about-for-australia-92990">New cities? It's an idea worth thinking about for Australia</a>
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<h2>Creating new cities</h2>
<p>The goal of turning cities from sustainability problems to solutions is driving a suite of “future city” innovations. These include the planning and development of whole new cities.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/08/smart-cities-forest-city-belmont/">increasing number of countries</a> are planning to build cities from scratch using technological innovation to achieve more sustainable urban development. <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/property/2018/09/411211/forest-city-%E2%80%94-model-other-cities">Forest City in Malaysia</a>, <a href="http://smartcityaz.com/">Belmont smart city</a> in the United States and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/aug/06/five-years-ago-there-was-nothing-inside-duqm-the-city-rising-from-the-sand-oman-city-sand-luxury-hotels-housing">Sino-Oman Industrial City</a> are just some of the examples. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ctkERUu7sdU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Forest City is Malaysia’s biggest development project.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The urban ambition includes creating carless and walkable cities, green cities able to produce oxygen through eco-skyscrapers, high-speed internet embedded in the urban fabric, the capacity to convert waste into energy, and reclaiming land to create new strategic trade opportunities. </p>
<p>However, striking the right balance between innovative ideas and democratic expectations, including the public right to the city, remains a challenge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-habitat-iii-defend-the-human-right-to-the-city-57576">Will Habitat III defend the human right to the city?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="http://www.mxcfilm.com/">The Minnesota Experimental City</a> offers a cautionary tale. The aim was to solve urban problems by creating a new city. It would use the latest technology including nuclear energy, automated cars and a domed roof enclosure. </p>
<p>Despite significant government and financial backing, including its own state agency, the Minnesota project failed due to a lack of public understanding and local support for a top-down futuristic project.</p>
<h2>Who gets left behind?</h2>
<p>In 1960, Brazil moved its capital from Rio de Janeiro to the futuristic city of <a href="https://brasilialifeafterdesign.com/">Brasilia</a>. While the city was designed to accommodate both rich and poor, it quickly became unaffordable for the average family. Half a century on, it was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20632277">reported</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The poor have been shunted out to satellite cities, which range from proper well-built cities to something more like a shanty town.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271890/original/file-20190501-136787-19tjt88.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Indonesian capital Jakarta is part of a larger mega-city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/vector-map-indonesian-megacity-urban-area-1306511566?src=cXVttw8d5C49wehUebYppg-1-1">Rainer Lesniewski/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Indonesia, more than 30 million people – <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/09/20/the-need-a-national-urban-development-policy-indonesia.html">a fifth of the nation’s urban residents</a> and more than a tenth of the <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/indonesia-population/">269 million population</a> – live in Greater Jakarta. The capital city Jakarta is just one part of a larger mega-city agglomeration, the world’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakarta">second-largest after Greater Tokyo</a>. This vast connected urban meta-region is known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jabodetabek">Jabodetabek</a>, from the initials of the cities within it: Jakarta (with a population of 10 million), Bogor (1 million), Depok (2.1 million), Tangerang (2 million), South Tangerang (1.5 million) and Bekasi (2.7 million). </p>
<p>A key reason for moving the capital is that Jakarta is prone to serious flooding and is <a href="https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2015/09/Sinking-cities.pdf">rapidly sinking</a>. Jakarta also suffers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-29/jakarta,-a-city-under-pressure-from-a-growing-population/8480226">overpopulation, severe traffic gridlock, slums</a> and a lack of critical urban infrastructure such as drainage and sanitation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sea-isnt-actually-level-why-rising-oceans-will-hit-some-cities-more-than-others-68378">The sea isn't actually 'level': why rising oceans will hit some cities more than others</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Relocating the capital away from the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-29/jakarta-to-no-longer-be-capital-of-indonesia-planning-minister/11056306">crowded main island of Java</a> offers the opportunity to better plan the political and administrative centre using the latest urban design features and technology.</p>
<p>Two key questions arise. If environmental degradation and overpopulation are the key issues, what will become of the largely remaining population of Greater Jakarta? At a national scale, how will this relocation help overcome the <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-decades-of-economic-growth-benefited-only-the-richest-20-how-severe-is-inequality-in-indonesia-101138">socio-economic and spatial disparities</a> that exist in Indonesia?</p>
<p>Egypt, for example, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/egypt-is-building-a-new-capital-city-from-scratch-heres-how-to-avoid-inequality-and-segregation-103402">building a new capital city</a> to overcome severe urban congestion and overcrowding in Greater Cairo. But there is no guarantee the new capital will resolve these issues if the emphasis is solely on technological innovation, without adequate attention to urban equity and fairness.</p>
<h2>More of the same in Australia</h2>
<p>The Australian population is <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0">projected to grow to 36 million in the next 30 years</a>. This is focusing political, policy and public attention on what this means for the future of the nation’s cities. </p>
<p>Despite all the advances that have occurred in technology, the arts, architecture, design and the sciences, there is surprisingly little innovation or public discussion about what might be possible for 21st-century Australian settlements beyond the capital cities.</p>
<p>Future Australian city planning and development focuses largely on enlarging and intensifying the footprints of existing major cities. The current urban policy trajectory is in-fill development and expansion of the existing state capital mega-city regions, where <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3218.0Main%20Features12017-18?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2017-18&num=&view=">two-thirds of the population live</a>. But what is lost through this approach? </p>
<p>In Australia only two ambitious “new city” plans have been put forward in the last 50 years: <a href="https://crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/pep/pep-283.pdf">the Multifunction Polis</a> (MFP) and <a href="http://www.clara.com.au/index.html">the CLARA Plan</a>. </p>
<p>In the late 1980s the MFP was envisaged as a high-tech city of the future with nuclear power, modern communication and Asian investment. It failed to gain the necessary political, investment and public support and was never built. </p>
<p>The current CLARA Plan proposes building up to eight new regional smart cities connected by a high-speed rail system linking Sydney and Melbourne via Canberra. Each of these cities is designed to be compact, environmentally sustainable and just a quick train trip away from the capital cities. </p>
<p>CLARA has outlined a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-value-capture-and-what-does-it-mean-for-cities-58776">value capture</a>” business model based on private city land development, not “government coffer” funding. How these new cities propose to function within the constitutional framework of Australia is as yet unclear and untested.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7FJ7sXTdQ2k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The privately funded CLARA plan is to build up to eight compact, sustainable, smart cities connected via high-speed rail.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-plan-still-needs-to-prove-economic-benefits-will-outweigh-costs-63330">High speed rail plan still needs to prove economic benefits will outweigh costs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A bipartisan challenge</h2>
<p>Are we thinking too narrowly when we talk about future Australian cities?</p>
<p>The “future city” prompts us to rethink and re-imagine the complex nature and make-up of our urban settlements, and the role of critical infrastructure and planning within them. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-critical-about-critical-infrastructure-73849">What's critical about critical infrastructure?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The future of Australian cities will require creativity, vision (even courage) to respond effectively to the challenges and opportunities of sustainable development. </p>
<p>This will not be the remit of any one political party, but a bipartisan national urban settlement agenda that affects and involves all Australians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Steele receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is an Urban Scholar with the UN Global City Compact and member of the Australasian Cities Research Network.</span></em></p>Other countries are planning new cities using technological innovation to achieve more sustainable development. Such plans aren’t new for Australia, but existing city growth is the focus of attention.Wendy Steele, Associate Professor, Centre of Urban Research and Urban Futures Enabling Capability Platform, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/902812018-04-10T10:07:41Z2018-04-10T10:07:41ZRobot cities: three urban prototypes for future living<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213903/original/file-20180409-114128-112q9ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/science-fiction-city-glass-metallic-structures-211565350?src=B9ocnyL-dcerxBKf8pWEOw-1-5">3000ad/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before I started working on real-world robots, I wrote about their fictional and historical ancestors. This isn’t so far removed from what I do now. In factories, labs, and of course science fiction, imaginary robots keep fuelling our imagination about artificial humans and autonomous machines.</p>
<p>Real-world robots remain surprisingly dysfunctional, although they are steadily infiltrating urban areas across the globe. This <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/">fourth industrial revolution</a> driven by robots is shaping urban spaces and urban life in response to opportunities and challenges in economic, social, political and healthcare domains. Our cities are becoming too big for humans to manage.</p>
<p>Good city governance enables and maintains smooth flow of things, data, and people. These include public services, traffic, and delivery services. Long queues in hospitals and banks imply poor management. Traffic congestion demonstrates that roads and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-maths-and-driverless-cars-could-spell-the-end-of-traffic-jams-63462">traffic systems</a> are inadequate. Goods that we increasingly order online don’t arrive fast enough. And the wi-fi often fails our 24/7 digital needs. In sum, urban life, characterised by environmental pollution, speedy life, traffic congestion, connectivity and increased consumption, needs robotic solutions – or so we are lead to believe.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213906/original/file-20180409-114076-dub5ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213906/original/file-20180409-114076-dub5ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213906/original/file-20180409-114076-dub5ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213906/original/file-20180409-114076-dub5ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213906/original/file-20180409-114076-dub5ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213906/original/file-20180409-114076-dub5ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213906/original/file-20180409-114076-dub5ga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Is this what the future holds?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/transport-collapse-158826083?src=2W_2lEfo8PRMQ249ng8YIQ-1-51">Photobank gallery/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the past five years, national governments have started to see automation as the key to (better) urban futures. Many cities are becoming test beds for national and local governments for experimenting with robots in social spaces, where robots have both practical purpose (to facilitate everyday life) and a very symbolic role (to demonstrate good city governance). Whether through <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-everyday-ethical-challenges-of-self-driving-cars-92710">autonomous cars</a>, automated pharmacists, service robots in local stores, or autonomous drones delivering <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-design-decisions-behind-amazons-strange-looking-delivery-drone-51624">Amazon parcels</a>, cities are being automated at a steady pace.</p>
<p>Many large cities (Seoul, Tokyo, Shenzhen, Singapore, Dubai, London, San Francisco) serve as test beds for autonomous vehicle trials in a competitive race to develop <a href="https://avsincities.bloomberg.org/">“self-driving” cars</a>. Automated ports and <a href="https://www.portofrotterdam.com/en/business-opportunities/smartest-port/cases/new-standard-in-container-terminals-and-services">warehouses</a> are also increasingly automated and robotised. Testing of <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608034/blood-from-the-sky-ziplines-ambitious-medical-drone-delivery-in-africa/">delivery robots and drones</a> is gathering pace beyond the warehouse gates. Automated control systems are monitoring, regulating and optimising <a href="http://trafficinfo.lacity.org/about-atsac.php">traffic flows</a>. Automated <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2017/03/10/food/indoor-farms-next-step-evolution-agriculture/#.WoHAAqhl_IU">vertical farms</a> are innovating production of food in “non-agricultural” urban areas around the world. New mobile health technologies carry promise of healthcare “<a href="https://www.roboticstomorrow.com/article/2016/04/zora-the-first-social-robot-already-widely-used-in-healthcare/7927;%20http://fortune.com/2016/06/13/pepper-robot-hospital/">beyond the hospital</a>”. Social robots in many guises – from <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/nation/dubai/dubai-police-gets-first-robot-policeman">police officers</a> to <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/chinese-restaurant-robot-waiters-2016-7?r=US&IR=T/#real-chefs-oversee-the-robot-cooks-to-make-sure-they-dont-malfunction-on-the-job-6">restaurant waiters</a> – are appearing in urban public and commercial spaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213907/original/file-20180409-114112-1v3e6sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213907/original/file-20180409-114112-1v3e6sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213907/original/file-20180409-114112-1v3e6sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213907/original/file-20180409-114112-1v3e6sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213907/original/file-20180409-114112-1v3e6sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213907/original/file-20180409-114112-1v3e6sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213907/original/file-20180409-114112-1v3e6sq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vertical indoor farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/vegetables-grown-using-fertigation-system-can-660711280?src=1jwcIq67WJdo-zCCsCxT2w-1-1">Aisyaqilumaranas/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As these examples show, urban automation is taking place in fits and starts, ignoring some areas and racing ahead in others. But as yet, no one seems to be taking account of all of these various and interconnected developments. So how are we to forecast our cities of the future? Only a broad view allows us to do this. To give a sense, here are three examples: Tokyo, Dubai and Singapore.</p>
<h2>Tokyo</h2>
<p>Currently preparing to host the Olympics 2020, Japan’s government also plans to use the event to showcase many new robotic technologies. Tokyo is therefore becoming an urban living lab. The institution in charge is the <a href="http://japan.kantei.go.jp/97_abe/actions/201501/23article3.html">Robot Revolution Realisation Council</a>, established in 2014 by the government of Japan.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213904/original/file-20180409-114092-1hd6nj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213904/original/file-20180409-114092-1hd6nj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213904/original/file-20180409-114092-1hd6nj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213904/original/file-20180409-114092-1hd6nj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213904/original/file-20180409-114092-1hd6nj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213904/original/file-20180409-114092-1hd6nj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213904/original/file-20180409-114092-1hd6nj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tokyo: city of the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tokyo-japan-august-1-2015-crowds-302738093?src=GbaCbEgfqjXmJ6wp35mVsg-1-5">ESB Professional/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The main objectives of Japan’s robotisation are economic reinvigoration, cultural branding and international demonstration. In line with this, the Olympics will be used to introduce and influence global technology trajectories. In the <a href="https://gizmodo.com/8-reasons-why-the-tokyo-olympics-will-be-the-most-futur-1728007440">government’s vision</a> for the Olympics, robot taxis transport tourists across the city, smart wheelchairs greet Paralympians at the airport, ubiquitous service robots greet customers in 20-plus languages, and interactively augmented foreigners speak with the local population in Japanese.</p>
<p>Tokyo shows us what the process of state-controlled creation of a robotic city looks like.</p>
<h2>Singapore</h2>
<p>Singapore, on the other hand, is a “smart city”. Its government is experimenting with robots with a different objective: as physical extensions of existing systems to improve management and control of the city.</p>
<p>In Singapore, the techno-futuristic national narrative sees robots and automated systems as a “natural” extension of the existing smart urban ecosystem. This vision is unfolding through autonomous delivery robots (the Singapore Post’s delivery drone trials in partnership with AirBus helicopters) and driverless bus shuttles from Easymile, EZ10.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Singapore hotels are employing state-subsidised service robots to clean rooms and deliver linen and supplies and robots for early childhood education <a href="https://govinsider.asia/innovation/exclusive-how-are-robots-teaching-social-skills-in-singapore/">have been piloted</a> to understand how robots can be used in pre-schools in the future. Health and social care is one of the fastest growing industries for robots and automation in Singapore and globally. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NLaDE4OsjQI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Dubai</h2>
<p>Dubai is another emerging prototype of a state-controlled smart city. But rather than seeing robotisation simply as a way to improve the running of systems, Dubai is intensively robotising public services with the aim of creating the “<a href="http://en.happinessagenda.ae/">happiest city on Earth</a>”. Urban robot experimentation in Dubai reveals that authoritarian state regimes are finding innovative ways to use robots in public services, transportation, policing and surveillance. </p>
<p>National governments are in competition to position themselves on the global politico-economic landscape through robotics, and they are also striving to position themselves as regional leaders. This was the thinking behind the city’s September 2017 <a href="https://nypost.com/2017/09/26/dubai-completes-first-flying-taxi-test-flight/">test flight</a> of a <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/1516508/dubai-starts-tests-bid-become-first-city-flying-taxis/">flying taxi</a> developed by the German drone firm Volocopter – staged to “lead the Arab world in innovation”. Dubai’s objective is to automate <a href="http://www.dubaifuture.gov.ae/our-initiatives/dubais-autonomous-transportation-strategy/">25%</a> of its transport system by 2030. </p>
<p>It is currently also experimenting with Barcelona-based PAL Robotics’ humanoid police officer and Singapore-based vehicle OUTSAW. If the experiments are successful, the government has announced it will robotise <a href="https://futurism.com/dubai-wants-robots-to-make-up-25-of-its-police-force-by-2030/">25% of the police force</a> by 2030.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"936731275158851584"}"></div></p>
<p>While imaginary robots are fuelling our imagination more than ever – from <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghost-in-the-shell-thrills-but-ducks-the-philosophical-questions-posed-by-a-cyborg-future-75565">Ghost in the Shell</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-blade-runner-2049-prepares-us-to-welcome-robots-for-real-85050">Blade Runner 2049</a> – real-world robots make us rethink our urban lives.</p>
<p>These three urban robotic living labs – Tokyo, Singapore, Dubai – help us gauge what kind of future is being created, and by whom. From hyper-robotised Tokyo to smartest Singapore and happy, crime free Dubai, these three comparisons show that, no matter what the context, robots are perceived as means to achieve global futures based on a specific national imagination. Just like the films, they demonstrate the role of the state in envisioning and creating that future.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Click here to listen to an episode of The Conversation’s podcast, The Anthill, on <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthill-10-the-future-73404">The Future</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90281/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mateja Kovacic is a member of the Urban Automation and Robotics project team at the Urban Institute, University of Sheffield. This article is based on the research undertaken with the Urban Automation and Robotics team.</span></em></p>Governments have started to see automation as the key to brighter urban futures. But what will this look like?Mateja Kovacic, Visiting Research Fellow, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/929902018-03-14T19:00:58Z2018-03-14T19:00:58ZNew cities? It’s an idea worth thinking about for Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209634/original/file-20180309-30969-1dg93hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Benjamen Gussen’s proposal for a 'charter city' in the Pilbara stimulated this imaginary depiction.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Bolleter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Is there a case for revisiting the idea of new cities for Australia in the light of recent population projections and resurgent debate about the implications of a big Australia? </p>
<p>By big we’re talking in the order of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3222.0Main%20Features62012%20(base)%20to%202101?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3222.0&issue=2012%20(base)%20to%202101&num=&view">another 12 million people by mid-century</a>. That’s said to be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-12/australia-is-struggling-to-handle-its-swelling-population/9535116">equivalent to adding a Canberra every year</a> for the next 30 years. But, on business-as-usual projections, three-quarters of that growth will be accommodated in our four biggest cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3222.0main+features72012%20(base)%20to%202101">According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics</a>, this could mean a Sydney of almost 9 million people and Melbourne of almost 10 million by just after 2050.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/is-australia-full-39068">Is Australia full?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The last time the nation seriously confronted the reality of sustained and accelerated population growth was in the early 1970s. And there was a mood to do something decisive. In 1972 an Australian Institute of Urban Studies task force emphatically <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/9420956?selectedversion=NBD1633419">recommended</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>efficient and humane alternatives to overconcentrated growth … A massive new-cities program needs to be started NOW. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Whitlam government obliged with a <a href="http://www.johncainfoundation.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/lyndsay-neilson-presentation.pdf">national growth centre program</a>. Undertaken jointly with the states, this produced some positive outcomes. These included an expanded Albury-Wodonga and systematic longer-term planning for Campbelltown in southwest Sydney and eventually Joondalup in northwest Perth. Admittedly there were some duds, such as the tri-city <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/11/29/1038386312281.html">Bathurst-Vittoria-Orange</a> and Monarto outside Adelaide, now a free-range zoo. </p>
<p>Funding and enthusiasm trailed off. This more or less reflected trends globally, certainly in the UK, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2002/may/15/communities.guardiansocietysupplement">heartland of new town thinking</a>, where the Commission for New Towns was abolished by 1998. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.newtowninstitute.org/spip.php?article420">Paris carried on</a> and even the private sector in the US developed new communities, <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/howard-magazine/ph-mg-ho-columbia-planned-cities-20170606-story.html">bringing innovation to the design process</a>. Other nations with high population growth, such as <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/12/12/why-hundreds-of-completely-new-cities-are-being-built-around-the-world/#4ad64fc514bf">China, maintained engagement</a>. Now even <a href="https://www.nic.org.uk/news/adonis-new-infrastructure-can-bring-first-new-towns-half-century-billions-national-economy/">Britain is returning</a> to <a href="http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06867/SN06867.pdf">new-look garden cities as models of sustainable growth</a>.</p>
<h2>So what’s going on in Australia?</h2>
<p>If Australia had a fair dinkum national urban and population policy, then future patterns of national settlement would be firmly in its sights. But we don’t, and those <a href="https://theconversation.com/hopes-of-a-new-urban-age-survive-ministers-fall-52975">hopes of a new era</a> under Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull just haven’t ignited. Instead, we mostly have a scattershot of initiatives, incentives and deals on offer within an overall economistic rhetoric of smartness and value capture. </p>
<p>Infrastructure Australia’s recent report, <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/future-cities/Future-Cities-Summary-Report-2018.pdf">Future Cities: Planning for our growing population</a>, is not much help. It concentrates on the largest cities only, and reiterates the conventional wisdom of their evolution towards higher-quality, higher-density cities. </p>
<p>It is worth asking why existing – and presumed inevitable – patterns of growth are the equivalent of a new city, but new urban places are not tabled as viable options. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210047/original/file-20180313-30983-q1df03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia created a new city for its capital and annual population growth is now being equated to ‘new Canberras’, so why not consider more new cities?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-canberra-city-center-1040423728?src=iwImnPPAC2OgKnPtvdHwYg-1-18">Yicai/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is nothing approaching a coherent vision of national urban system planning. This scale of thinking has largely dropped out of the policy realm. The rise of design-driven planning has brought many benefits in balancing public and private interest, but these are usually played out at the local scale. </p>
<p>Metropolitan planning strategies display more comprehensive thinking but are jurisdictionally constrained. They also inevitably converge on the same suite of aspirations – growth management, housing supply and affordability, employment, density, mixed-use activity centres and transit-oriented development. And, as we see in Melbourne, the progressive liberalisation of urban growth boundaries to allow greater expansion <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-cities-and-their-metropolitan-plans-still-seem-to-be-parallel-universes-87603">misses opportunities for more radical rethinks</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-cities-and-their-metropolitan-plans-still-seem-to-be-parallel-universes-87603">Australian cities and their metropolitan plans still seem to be parallel universes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/all-the-signs-point-to-our-big-cities-need-for-democratic-metro-scale-governance-92417">Metropolitan governance is the order of the day</a>, without doubt, but what spatial framework does that sit in? The <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/">Greater Sydney Commission</a> is proving its worth in this direction and organising local authorities into a co-ordinated assemblage. But its strategy has almost nothing to say about the rest of the state. </p>
<p>There is no spatial state plan. Wollongong, Newcastle, the Central Coast (contributing over 200,000 daily return commuter trips into Sydney) and regional areas lie out of view. </p>
<p>Where state planning strategies do exist (such as Western Australia) these tend to be toothless and lacking in vision. </p>
<p>Since mid-2017 some bigger-picture thinking has surfaced in submissions and presentations to the House Standing Committee on Infrastructure, Transport and Cities, which is conducting a timely <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/ITC/DevelopmentofCities">inquiry into the Australian government’s role in city development</a>. The message is that there are no quick fixes, single solutions or optimum city sizes. There is also an awareness that the path dependency of growth in metropolitan areas will ensure their continuing primacy. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/agglomeration-economies/">agglomeration economies</a> favouring non-metropolitan locations are admitedly weaker but a strengthening narrative relates to the links between 21st-century transportation and settlement. <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-at-200-billion-wed-better-get-it-right-62541">High-speed rail</a> is not just an inter-city technological marvel but – done well to an integrated spatial plan – becomes a nation-building instrument for expanding key regional centres. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-at-200-billion-wed-better-get-it-right-62541">High-speed rail? At $200 billion we'd better get it right</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Think longer term, think big</h2>
<p>Long-term thinking compels bigger vision. The 2013 book <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7215/">Made in Australia</a> by Richard Weller and Julian Bolleter attempts this, by daring to imagine a future beyond the conventional wisdom of low-density spread and urban consolidation. Guided by ABS national population projections – <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3222.0Main%20Features52012%20(base)%20to%202101?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3222.0&issue=2012%20(base)%20to%202101&num=&view">70 million by 2101</a> – its sights are firmly <a href="https://www.parksleisure.com.au/documents/item/2693">set on a whole new conception of megaregions and new cities</a>. Northern Australia, in particular, comes into view as a new urban frontier.</p>
<p>There are various scenarios to explore within a new city paradigm:</p>
<ul>
<li>the polycentric city (think: Hunter to the Illawarra in NSW)</li>
<li> integrated planning for regional centres and expanded towns (a more targeted <a href="http://regional.gov.au/regional/programs/regional-growth-fund.aspx">Regional Growth Fund</a>)</li>
<li>regional satellites (network city regions focused on metropolitan cores)</li>
<li>upscaled master plan communities set within a regional vision (<a href="https://www.greaterspringfield.com.au/">Springfield</a>)</li>
<li>“new cities in cities” (<a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-into-uncertainty-western-sydneys-aerotropolis-poses-more-questions-than-answers-73682">Western Sydney aerotropolis</a>).</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-into-uncertainty-western-sydneys-aerotropolis-poses-more-questions-than-answers-73682">Flying into uncertainty: Western Sydney's 'aerotropolis' poses more questions than answers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The contemporary new city idea cannot be a tired rerun of town and country planning policies from the past. These elevated post-war welfare-state British new towns as the benchmark and ignored their many shortcomings as urban environments. </p>
<p>The population tap is unlikely to be turned off even if politically leveraged downward. Humanitarian migration is also likely to grow. This means we need to have a debate that is not just about population size but also about its distribution. </p>
<p>Australia is a post-colonial country built largely through relatively new, planned cities. We have a capital city famously built from scratch. Australians should be able to engage with a more nuanced evaluation of the role of new cities in delivering the desired triple bottom line of urban productivity, liveability and sustainability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Freestone receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Taylor receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, the Henry Halloran Trust, the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the City of Melbourne.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Bolleter is employed by the Australian Urban Design Research Centre, which is funded by Landcorp, the Western Australian Department of Communities, and the Western Australian Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage.</span></em></p>Business-as-usual projections assume our four biggest cities must absorb three-quarters of Australia’s population growth over the next 30 years. Might new cities be a better way to deal with it?Robert Freestone, Professor of Planning, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW SydneyElizabeth Taylor, Vice Chancellor's Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, RMIT UniversityJulian Bolleter, Research Fellow, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/814392017-08-07T02:25:48Z2017-08-07T02:25:48ZReengineering elevators could transform 21st-century cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180106/original/file-20170727-8516-xor8v9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can technology free elevators from their up-down cages?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/old-wooden-elevator-metal-shaft-468481526">SIAATH/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the 160 or so years since the first skyscrapers were built, technological innovations of many kinds have allowed us to build them to reach astonishing heights. Today there is a <a href="http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/jeddah-tower/2">1,000-meter (167-story) building</a> under construction in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Even <a href="http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/buildings">taller buildings are possible</a> with <a href="https://www.citylab.com/design/2012/08/there-limit-how-tall-buildings-can-get/2963/">today’s structural technology</a>.</p>
<p>But people still don’t really live in skyscrapers the way futurists had envisioned, for one reason: Elevators go only up and down. In the “Harry Potter” movies, “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory” and others, we see cableless boxes that can travel not just vertically but horizontally and even diagonally. Today, that future might be closer than ever. A new system invented and being tested by German elevator producer <a href="https://multi.thyssenkrupp-elevator.com/en/">ThyssenKrupp</a> would <a href="http://mashable.com/2017/06/28/multi-directional-elevator-moves-sideways/">get rid of cables altogether</a> and build elevators more like magnetic levitation trains, which are common in Japan and China.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oRK0d8VTlDw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Trying out the Great Glass Elevator in ‘Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our work at the nonprofit <a href="http://www.ctbuh.org">Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat</a> studies how tall buildings can better interact with their urban environments. One aspect is a look at how buildings might work <a href="http://ctbuh.org/TallBuildings/ResearchDivision/1608_RopelessNonverticalElevatorsProjectLaunch/tabid/7327/language/en-US/Default.aspx">in a world of ropeless elevators</a>. We imagine that people might live, say, on the 50th floor of a tall building and only rarely have to go all the way down to street level. Instead, they might go sideways to the next tower over, or to the bridge between them, for a swim, a trip to the doctor or the grocery store.</p>
<p>This research project, set to conclude in September 2018, will explore as many of the practical implications of ropeless elevator travel as possible. But we already know that thinking of elevators the way ThyssenKrupp suggests could revolutionize the construction and use of tall buildings. Builders could create structures that are both far taller and far wider than current skyscrapers – and people could move though them much more easily than we do in cities today. </p>
<h2>It’s hard to get high</h2>
<p>Very few buildings are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings">taller than 500 meters</a> because of the limitations of those everyday devices that make high-rise buildings practical in the first place – elevators. Traditional, steel-rope-hung elevators can travel only <a href="https://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/06/18/ultrarope_to_enable_1000_meter_buildings/">around 500 meters</a> before the weight of the rope itself makes it inconvenient. That takes more and more energy and space – which all costs developers money.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180249/original/file-20170728-5515-dpv2p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wide-angle view of an elevator machine room shows the large spool to wind and unwind the ropes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dvanzuijlekom/26595545383">Dennis van Zuijlekom</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Replacing steel ropes with carbon fiber ones can save energy and space. But even so, people who want to go to the uppermost floors from the lowest floors don’t want to wait for the elevator to stop at the dozens of floors in between. That means developers need to <a href="http://gulfnews.com/news/uae/property/burj-dubai-the-tallest-tower-features-world-s-highest-elevators-1.559769">make room in their buildings</a> for multiple shafts, for express and local elevators, and for “<a href="http://skyrisecities.com/news/2016/03/explainer-sky-lobby">sky lobbies</a>” where people can switch between them. All of that space devoted to vertical transportation reduces the amount of rentable space on each floor, which makes the economics of the building more difficult the higher it gets.</p>
<h2>Traveling in three dimensions</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUa8M0H9J5o">new elevator system</a> uses <a href="http://www.explainthatstuff.com/linearmotor.html">electric linear induction motors</a> – the same kind of contactless energy transfer that powers <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/how-maglev-works">magnetic levitation trains</a> – instead of cables to move elevator cars around. This also lets them move independently of each other in a shaft, which in turn means multiple cabins can be working in one shaft at the same time. That reduces the need for parallel shafts serving different floors and frees up more real estate for commercial use. And there’s no inherent limit to how far they can travel.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180244/original/file-20170728-1529-ljzczv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=813&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Without ropes, cars can move horizontally and share shafts and passageways through buildings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://multi.thyssenkrupp-elevator.com/assets/pdf/multi_brochure.pdf">ThyssenKrupp</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even more exciting is that these cabins can travel horizontally, and potentially even diagonally: The motors pivot to follow the powered track, while the floor of the cabin remains level. That opens up a whole world of possibilities. Without the ropes, it is also feasible to reduce the number of shafts a building requires, by allowing more cars to travel in one single shaft. It also becomes feasible to build massive building complexes interconnected by motorized vehicles operating high above the ground.</p>
<p>The difference between an elevator and a car, or even a train, becomes less clear – as does the difference between a building, a bridge and an entire city. Instead of descending from your 50th-floor apartment to the street in an elevator, then taking a taxi or the subway to another building across town, and going back up to the 50th floor, you might instead have a door-to-door ride between buildings, at height, in a single vehicle.</p>
<h2>Creating the cities of the future</h2>
<p>Is the world actually ready for this? Probably not right away. In the short term, we can expect to see systems like carbon-fiber-roped and ropeless elevators used in some of the very tallest, most high-profile (and expensive) buildings. Many of these structures house spaces used for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-retail-lotte-corp-idUSKBN0M82NU20150313">many different purposes</a> – residences, restaurants, retail stores, offices, cinemas and even sports. The people who live in, work in or visit those buildings have a wide range of destinations – they might want to stop at a shop to pick up something before going to a friend’s apartment for dinner before heading to a movie. And so they need options for traveling within the building.</p>
<p>At the moment, these systems are far more expensive than the conventional alternatives. Building owners won’t use them until they can save – or earn – lots more money by building systems like this. But as we’ve seen with computers and many other forms of technology, the <a href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html">cost goes down rapidly</a> as more people buy the systems, and as research advances improve them.</p>
<p>There are probably physical constraints and efficiency limits on how many elevator cars could share a particular complex of shafts and passageways. And structural engineers might need to analyze what supports and reinforcements are needed to move people and machinery throughout large buildings. But the tall building industry has no standard data or recommendations to guide designers today. That’s what we’re trying to develop. </p>
<p>The technology is arriving – and with them the certainty that the old ways of traveling through a building are about to change more substantially than ever before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81439/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>He is affiliated with Iuav University of Venice, Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antony Wood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New technology could make it practical to build skyscrapers far taller than even today’s highest – and change how people live, work and play in tall buildings.Antony Wood, Executive Director, Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat; Visiting Professor of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University Shanghai; Research Professor of Architecture, Illinois Institute of TechnologyDario Trabucco, Tenured Researcher in Building Technology, Università Iuav di VeneziaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783692017-06-08T14:56:59Z2017-06-08T14:56:59ZA day in the life of a smart-city commuter – and why it’s not so far from reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172929/original/file-20170608-32318-ant7rb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The alarm on your smart phone went off 10 minutes earlier than usual this morning. Parts of the city are closed off in preparation for a popular end of summer event, so congestion is expected to be worse than usual. You’ll need to catch an earlier bus to make it to work on time. </p>
<p>The alarm time is tailored to your morning routine, which is monitored every day by your smart watch. It takes into account the weather forecast (rain expected at 7am), the day of the week (it’s Monday, and traffic is always worse on a Monday), as well as the fact that you went to bed late last night (this morning, you’re likely to be slower than usual). The phone buzzes again – it’s time to leave, if you want to catch that bus.</p>
<p>While walking to the bus stop, your phone suggests a small detour – for some reason, the town square you usually stroll through is very crowded this morning. You pass your favourite coffee shop on your way, and although they have a 20% discount this morning, your phone doesn’t alert you – after all, you’re in a hurry. </p>
<p>After your morning walk, you feel fresh and energised. You check in at the Wi-Fi and Bluetooth-enabled bus stop, which updates the driver of the next bus. He now knows that there are 12 passengers waiting to be picked up, which means he should increase his speed slightly if possible, to give everyone time to board. The bus company is also notified, and are already deploying an extra bus to cope with the high demand along your route. While you wait, you notice a parent with two young children, entertaining themselves with the touch-screen information system installed at the bus stop.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172938/original/file-20170608-6975-17ej5a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bus stops of the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-blonde-female-using-tourist-information-644261947?src=2yKhoQskfDY5DQSRTQGrMw-1-2">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once the bus arrives, boarding goes smoothly: almost all passengers were using tickets stored on their smart phones, so there was only one time-consuming cash payment. On the bus, you take out a tablet from your bag to catch up on some news and emails using the free on-board Wi-Fi service. You suddenly realise that you forgot to charge your phone, so you connect it to the USB charging point next to the seat. Although the traffic is really slow, you manage to get through most of your work emails, so the time on the bus is by no means wasted.</p>
<p>The moment the bus drops you off in front of your office, your boss informs you of an unplanned visit to a site, so you make a booking with a car-sharing scheme, such as <a href="http://www.co-wheels.org.uk/">Co-wheels</a>. You secure a car for the journey, with a folding bike in the boot.</p>
<p>Your destination is in the middle of town, so when you arrive on the outskirts you park the shared car in a nearby parking bay (which is actually a member’s unused driveway) and take the bike for the rest of the journey to save time and avoid traffic. Your travel app gives you instructions via your Bluetooth headphones – it suggests how to adjust your speed on the bike, according to your fitness level. Because of your asthma, the app suggests a route that avoids <a href="http://www.sensingcities.org/">a particularly polluted area</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172934/original/file-20170608-5114-vs7ohk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sick ride.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mr_t_in_dc/8231777010/sizes/l">Mr.tinDC/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After your meeting, you opt to get a cab back to the office, so that you can answer some emails on the way. With a tap on your smartphone, you order the cab, and in the two minutes it takes to arrive you fold up your bike so that you can return it to the boot of another shared vehicle near your office. You’re in a hurry, so no green reward points for walking today, I’m afraid – but at least you made it to the meeting on time, saving kilograms of CO2 on the way.</p>
<h2>Get real</h2>
<p>It may sound like fiction, but truth be told, most of the data required to make this day happen are already being collected in one form or another. Your smart phone is able to track your location, speed and even <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvesting-big-data-could-bring-about-the-next-transport-revolution-right-now-77261">the type of activity</a> that you’re performing at any given time – whether you’re driving, walking or riding a bike. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, fitness trackers and smart watches can monitor your heart rate and physical activity. Your search history and behaviour on social media sites can reveal your interests, tastes and even intentions: for instance, the data created when you look at holiday offers online not only hints at where you want to go, but also when and how much you’re willing to pay for it.</p>
<p>Personal devices aside, the rise of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-internet-of-things-16542">Internet of Things</a> with distributed networks of all sorts of sensors, which can measure anything from air pollution to traffic intensity, is yet another source of data. Not to mention the constant feed of information available on social media about any topic you care to mention. </p>
<p>With so much data available, it seems as though the picture of our environment is almost complete. But all of these datasets sit in separate systems that don’t interact, managed by different entities which don’t necessarily fancy sharing. So although the technology is already there, our data remains siloed with different organisations, and institutional obstacles stand in the way of attaining this level of service. Whether or not that’s a bad thing, is up to you to decide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcin Budka receives funding from Innovate UK. The author would like to acknowledge the insightful contributions of Mr Tom Quay, the MD of We Are Base Ltd, the author's KTP project partner.</span></em></p>All it takes is data … lots of data.Marcin Budka, Principal Academic in Data Science, Bournemouth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/741022017-04-13T11:45:07Z2017-04-13T11:45:07ZHow to embrace urban living, but avoid an apocalypse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164070/original/image-20170405-14629-1ch9u30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=172%2C46%2C1853%2C1061&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The future of cities?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Jones/Northumbria</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cities – we are repeatedly told – are the future. Governments and global corporations seek to increase productivity by accelerating urban growth, while more and more citizens migrate to cities, in search of a better life. Indeed, the Chinese government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/china-plans-build-new-city-nearly-three-times-the-size-of-new-york">recently unveiled plans</a> to construct a city three times the size of New York, <a href="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2017-04/03/content_28783856.htm">calling it</a> a “strategy crucial for a millennium to come”. </p>
<p>Yet as it stands, visions of our urban future are bleak. </p>
<p>By 2050, <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/publications/files/wup2014-highlights.Pdf">it is predicted</a> that up to six billion inhabitants will live in urban areas – more than two thirds of the world’s population. There could be as many as 30 cities with populations exceeding 10m, and massive urban areas may merge to form megacities, resulting in urban populations exceeding 50m. </p>
<p>According to Mike Davis, author of <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/books/2293-planet-of-slums">Planet of Slums</a>, approaching two billion of the world’s inhabitants will live in slums, scratching out an existence without access to the basic services necessary for life. Another four billion will live severely compromised lives within urban sprawl, left to fight for resources as city governments fail to cope with the rapid influx of people. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164089/original/image-20170405-14615-bn3t88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164089/original/image-20170405-14615-bn3t88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164089/original/image-20170405-14615-bn3t88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164089/original/image-20170405-14615-bn3t88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164089/original/image-20170405-14615-bn3t88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164089/original/image-20170405-14615-bn3t88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164089/original/image-20170405-14615-bn3t88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A dim prospect.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisjongkind/15022907263/sizes/l">Tokyoform/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Social services and health facilities will break down. <a href="http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GlobalHealthRisks_report_part2.pdf">Human catastrophes</a> such as starvation and the spread of disease will result from unsanitary conditions and high population density. The megacities of the future will have weak and unsustainable local economies, that will negatively affect citizens’ lives in myriad ways.</p>
<p>Wealth will not provide immunity from these issues. Pollution will rise exponentially, with toxic smog regularly enveloping entire cities. This will inevitably lead to a rise in respiratory diseases, which are already emerging as one of the three major health risks to the modern population. Bad air quality will be made worse by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-are-cities-warmer-than-the-countryside-53160">urban heat island effect</a>, as parks and rural hinterlands are built over to house the influx of people. </p>
<p>Nature will struggle to gain a foothold in the future city, with rural land <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i1688e/i1688e.pdf">predicted to shrink</a> by 30% to accommodate urban expansion. The lack of countryside and green space will ultimately contribute to the <a href="http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2012/03/28/the-sixth-great-extinction-a-silent-extermination/">sixth recorded mass extinction</a> of animal and plant species. </p>
<h2>A brighter future</h2>
<p>But there is a way to avert this apocalyptic vision. Efforts to control the rapid and chaotic expansion of cities must go hand in hand with tackling the global environmental crisis, brought about by climate change. Governments, however, have proved unwilling or unable to reconcile the interests of global corporations with those of everyday people and the environment; this can be seen through their support of projects such as mining the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/09/the-alberta-tar-sands/100820/">Alberta Sands</a> and oil operations in the <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/02/junger200702">Niger Delta</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164088/original/image-20170405-14626-1re0c3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164088/original/image-20170405-14626-1re0c3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164088/original/image-20170405-14626-1re0c3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164088/original/image-20170405-14626-1re0c3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164088/original/image-20170405-14626-1re0c3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164088/original/image-20170405-14626-1re0c3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164088/original/image-20170405-14626-1re0c3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mining Alberta’s tar sands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/6863477149/sizes/o/">Kris Krug/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As such, any alternative to this bleak urban future will require a radical shift in governance and economic philosophy. Scholars <a href="http://www.steadystate.org/discover/definition/">argue that</a> society’s economic aim should be the sustainable production and fair distribution of wealth – rather than the maximisation of profit. Devolving wealth and power will help to build robust local economies and strong communities, which can mitigate the pressures of global urbanisation. </p>
<p>These changes should also be manifest in the physical structure and form of urban communities, with compact, densely populated, sustainable and self-governing community developments, as opposed to laissez-faire urban sprawl. In alternative future cities, urban blocks will support all the immediate needs of their inhabitants; from healthcare to housing, education, food production, clean water and sanitation. </p>
<h2>Welcome to the Organicity</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164078/original/image-20170405-14626-1bnt6ax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cut-through view of the Organicity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Jones/Northumbria</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To better understand what such a place might actually be like, David Dobereiner, Chris Brown and I created Organicity: an illustrated prototype for localised, autonomous, sustainable, urban community infrastructure. The Organicity is densely occupied, with residential, urban agriculture, retail, industry, commerce, education and health facilities stacked above each other, accommodating approximately 5,000 people per unit. </p>
<p>Automated industries and waste processing are located beneath the living zone, where there is no need for natural light. Each unit has a primary industry which trades with other neighbouring communities to generate income to support the infrastructure. Resources should be managed at a local level, with a higher level of responsibility than is currently shown by global corporations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164083/original/image-20170405-14636-gz0k1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nature and knowledge, side by side.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Jones/Northumbria</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Protecting the environment and supporting a diverse range of wildlife would be a natural function of these new communities. Biodiversity could be promoted by green corridors, situated near education, health and office spaces so that children and workers can benefit from the proximity of a rich natural environment. </p>
<h2>People power</h2>
<p>Investing in local people through the provision of skills and education will add to the commercial viability of the community, as well as building cohesion, purpose and mutual respect. As the sociologist <a href="http://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/86059/the-economy-of-cities-by-jane-jacobs/9780394705842/">Jane Jacobs argued</a> back in the 1970s, for cities to remain viable they should become the producers of resources, rather than insatiable consumers. </p>
<p>In the Organicity, each development will have the necessary expertise for the community to flourish, including doctors, architects, solicitors, dentists, as well as skilled and unskilled labour. This new urban model transforms city blocks into productive environments. For example, the development of urban farming would boost food production and prevent starvation, which would be an inevitable consequence of unimpeded urban growth. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164080/original/image-20170405-14620-co5810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Community greenhouses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Jones/Northumbria</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The developments will vary in scale, with the bigger ones housing hospitals and other community facilities that require specialist facilities. The prototype reinvents the concept of “terraced housing”: land is stepped backwards up a slope, forming true terraces, where rows of houses are arrayed to embrace the public plaza and allotment gardens. </p>
<p>Within these communities, it is essential that people work close to where they live, to reduce the impacts of transport: not only will this tackle pollution, it will also afford people more quality time with their families and local community. </p>
<p>Sharing communal resources – including machinery and cars – is an important principle of urban sustainability. Communal ownership of assets, including real estate and green space, is essential for this model to work. Renewable technologies could also be community-owned, which would help to break people’s dependency on fossil fuel. </p>
<p>By shifting from globalisation to localisation, and creating smaller, self-sufficient communities within sustainable developments, cities could regain their equilibrium. From where we stand today, the Organicity may sound like a Utopian dream. But if we’re to avoid an urban apocalypse, we’re going to need strong alternative visions, to change the way we imagine and plan for the cities of the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74102/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Jones receives funding from AHRC and HEA. </span></em></p>Pollution, poverty, disease and death: future cities will be grim places, unless we do things differently.Paul Jones, Professor of Architecture, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/721932017-02-23T23:58:12Z2017-02-23T23:58:12ZHere’s what smart cities do to stay ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157609/original/image-20170221-18654-2809v9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smart cities work on developing a shared vision of their preferred future.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Danti/from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Smart cities create a symbiosis between information, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/internet-of-things-data-will-help-us-predict-the-future-62158">Internet of Things</a> and technologies to make better decisions and provide desired services. These cities map community preferences to improve services and infrastructure including public transport, libraries and waste services. They <a href="http://theconversation.com/city-streets-become-a-living-lab-that-could-transform-your-daily-travel-71272">use sensors</a>, Bluetooth and iPhones <a href="http://arrayofthings.github.io/">to track</a> conditions and activities and send awareness messages ahead of emerging problems and disasters.</p>
<p>Smart cities integrate businesses in an expanding global innovation network. They do much more than creating a single great product or industry to stay ahead of the innovation curve. They develop <a href="http://emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/FS-02-2016-0003">visioning initiatives</a> to create their preferred futures.</p>
<p>But making products that “change the world” does help keep locations in the news. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/hyperloop-highspeed-travel-is-coming--fast/news-story/3d043880f52d5f56c8a1433c137a100b">Hyperloop</a> systems to increase the speed and lower the cost of travel are synonymous with Californian innovators. <a href="https://youtu.be/jgMw9tR8xmQ">Augmented reality glasses</a> that will remove the need to work at your PC put New York developers in the spotlight. Singapore is known for its digital economy and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-selfdriving-singapore-idUSKCN1100ZG">driverless taxis</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jgMw9tR8xmQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Augmented reality glasses could further transform how we access and use information.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Smart cities cannot afford to be complacent about their achievements. If they stand still, they will soon be overtaken by further innovation. </p>
<p>Digital disrupter Uber <a href="https://newsroom.uber.com/uber-daimler-self-driving-cars/">plans to add driverless cars</a> to its ride-sharing network. The next innovative mode of travel around smart cities will be <a href="http://www.ehang.com/ehang184">autonomous aerial vehicles</a> – drones and quadcopters. <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38967235">Dubai plans</a> to have passenger drones up and running within months.</p>
<h2>How can cities stay ahead of the curve?</h2>
<p>For futurist <a href="http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/sohail-inayatullah.htm">Sohail Inayatullah</a>, progressive innovation is empowering (increasing inclusion), nature-based (learning from, protecting and often enhancing through new technologies) and purposeful. </p>
<p>Mayors, CEOs and leaders create a progressive culture that attracts and retains talented staff. Smart organisations improve staff skills and design reflective spaces. They provide a healthy lifestyle culture <a href="http://www.inc.com/business-insider/best-google-benefits.html">supported by excellent pay and conditions</a>. </p>
<p>They also encourage employees to participate in innovation hubs, city labs, maker spaces, universities and business start-ups, and via shared platforms with <a href="https://creativecommons.org/about/">Creative Commons</a> licences.</p>
<p>California’s high-tech companies – Apple, Facebook, Yahoo, Netflix, eBay, Tesla and the like – gain product feedback from customers and New York financiers every year at CES in Las Vegas. <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38487210">CES 2017</a> displayed <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/technology/innovation/ces-2017-sonys-new-oled-tv-is-both-the-screen-and-the-speaker-20170109-gto1yi.html">TVs with 2.5mm screens</a> that vibrate to make sound, <a href="http://www.redbull.com/en/stories/1331842588780/hologram-listicle">holographic displays</a>, <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601789/control-your-smartphone-with-your-eyes/">eye-tracking phones</a> and an <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/technology/innovation/ces-2017-faraday-future-unveils-ff-91-electric-car-20170104-gtm73e.html">electric car</a> that accelerates from 0-59km per hour in 2.39 seconds. While products on display were designed in US cities, global suppliers made many of them. </p>
<p>Cities also stay ahead of the innovation curve through the actions of industry leaders who promote the diversity and stability of local workforces. In 2008, US smart cities benefited from the support of Microsoft founder Bill Gates, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/bill-gates-to-congress-let-us-hire-more-foreigners/">who testified</a> to the importance of hiring foreigners. </p>
<p>Microsoft, along with Amazon and Expedia, again supported Washington State in 2017 by <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/30/14447166/microsoft-amazon-washington-trump-immigration-ban-lawsuit">testifying against</a> US President Donald Trump’s immigration ban. In a joint message of co-operative governance to protect global relationships, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/16-attorneys-general-to-fight-trump-immigration-ban/">16 US attorneys-general</a> rallied against the presidential executive order denying entry to citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries. They rejected the immigration ban for undermining national security and America’s core values as a “nation of immigrants”. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"825793145166299138"}"></div></p>
<h2>Separating reality from hype</h2>
<p>Smart city “reality” is about co-creation at the fastest rate in history. This relies on physical and digital connectivity, openness to global markets and high-speed internet. By 2020, Australians will enjoy a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/5g-revolution-will-benefit-entire-societies-says-qualcomm-chief/news-story/ea7a040f00572fae4c2484d1d5fea972">5G wireless internet</a> service with speeds 100 times fast than the current NBN.</p>
<p>High-speed connectivity is needed to support virtual reality and rich entertainment experiences. SpaceX wants to launch 4,425 satellites, rebuilding the internet in space to create a “<a href="http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws.exe/prod/ib/forms/reports/related_filing.hts?f_key=-289550&f_number=SATLOA2016111500118">full and continuous global coverage</a>”. </p>
<p>For leaders, smart city “reality” also means promoting their city’s unique benefits. Socially inclusive, affordable cities with liveable climates attract talented staff. </p>
<p>Australia’s largest city, Sydney, offers those conditions. It is a global leader in bio-tech, high-tech manufacturing. It also has some of the highest levels of sustainability and natural environmental open space in the world. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.pwc.com/cities?RB_X0c0a0U0R0g0z3z060p0">Compared to London</a>, Sydney rates better for political stability, crime rate, cost of living and cost of rent. Sydney is similar to London in productivity, world university rankings, and health system performance.</p>
<p>Cities with the most advanced technology and liveability include Sydney, London, Stockholm, Seoul and Toronto.</p>
<h2>Aligning innovation to emerging futures</h2>
<p>Smart cities reduce hype by creating visions. Visioning imagines socially inclusive, sustainable and transformational futures and consequences before enacting them. </p>
<p>When delivering foresight workshops, I use the acronym SELECTFTGP – for “select futures that grow possibilities”. This seeks to encompass all systems: social, environmental, legislative, economic, cultural, technological, futures, transport, governance and political. Considering all social possibilities and impacts, before narrowing to preferred futures, helps to avoid “hype”. </p>
<p>The Australian government has a national <a href="https://cities.dpmc.gov.au/smart-cities-plan">Smart Cities Plan</a>. The plan emphasises attraction of talent, accessibility, connecting high-density housing and job centres and high-quality urban design. It recommends a smart city reference group to improve stakeholder engagement, a national cities performance framework, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-deals-nine-reasons-this-imported-model-of-urban-development-demands-due-diligence-57040">City Deals</a>. </p>
<p>Queensland is including a <a href="https://cities.dpmc.gov.au/townsville-city-deal">Townsville City Deal</a> in its draft regional planning framework, <a href="http://www.dilgp.qld.gov.au/noindex/shapingseq/draft-south-east-queensland-regional-plan.pdf">ShapingSEQ</a>. The City Deal will “hard wire” ShapingSEQ through an agreed delivery mechanism for project prioritisation, funding and governance. <a href="http://www.dilgp.qld.gov.au/planning/regional-planning/shapingseq-online-submission-form.html">Submissions</a> on the draft document close March 3, 2017. </p>
<p>Brisbane, Gold Coast, Logan, Sunshine Coast and <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-the-gold-coast-to-geelong-how-cities-are-shaping-visions-of-their-futures-69055">Geelong</a> have applied <a href="http://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/21-2-1.pdf">futures studies methods</a> to their city visioning. </p>
<p>Smart cities will advance across the Australian landscape when state governments legislate for cities to create and align 20-to-30-year visions to their emerging futures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Russo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Smart cities do more than develop products to increase productivity and prosperity. Mayors, CEOs and leaders engage entire communities in shaping the future of cities.Colin Russo, Futurist, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/734042017-02-23T09:36:09Z2017-02-23T09:36:09ZAnthill 10: The future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157734/original/image-20170221-18664-ebyied.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=263%2C112%2C2521%2C2285&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">via shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-anthill-27460">The Anthill</a> podcast we talk to historians, future thinkers, designers and sci-fi watchers about our love of predicting what’s to come. </p>
<p>We talk to somebody who does it for a living, Anders Sandberg, research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, who explains how he got into future studies, and what it’s like predicting the future as a day job. Thankfully, not all doom and gloom. </p>
<p>Back in the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes predicted the future of work would leave us more time to sit back and relax. With robots taking on more and more menial tasks, he thought technology would reduce the working week to just 15 hours and the rest of our time would be devoted to leisure. </p>
<p>So why haven’t we got there yet? As we hear from Martin Parker, professor of organisation and culture at the University of Leicester, it will take more than just robots to make this happen; society will need to be entirely reorganised in the process. Meanwhile, Ursula Huws, professor of labour and globalisation at the University of Hertfordshire, identifies four areas where jobs will boom – in spite of all the robots. </p>
<p>We delve into the history of how our ancestors imagined the future too. Selena Daly, assistant professor in Italian Studies and an expert in the Italian futurists, tells us the story of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-italian-avant-garde-survived-the-trenches-of-world-war-i-65508">avant-garde art and cultural movement</a> started by Filippo Tommaso Marinetti a few years before World War I. Both destructive and provocative in its vision, it’s a case study in how visions of the future can get wound up in politics. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157738/original/image-20170221-18664-149m27.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157738/original/image-20170221-18664-149m27.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157738/original/image-20170221-18664-149m27.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157738/original/image-20170221-18664-149m27.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157738/original/image-20170221-18664-149m27.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157738/original/image-20170221-18664-149m27.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157738/original/image-20170221-18664-149m27.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dynamism of a Cyclist by Umberto Boccioni.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/03/Umberto_Boccioni%2C_1913%2C_Dynamism_of_a_Cyclist_%28Dinamismo_di_un_ciclista%29%2C_oil_on_canvas%2C_70_x_95_cm%2C_Gianni_Mattioli_Collection%2C_on_long-term_loan_to_the_Peggy_Guggenheim_Collection%2C_Venice.jpg">via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Helping us to track other visions of futures past, Nick Dunn, professor of urban design at Lancaster University who runs its <a href="http://imagination.lancs.ac.uk/">Imagination</a> design research lab, reveals his favourite dystopian and utopian visions for what future cities could look like. And Amy Chambers, who researches science communication and screen studies at Newcastle University, explains how both utopias and dystopias in science fiction have been used to help imagine a better future. Today, she says, science fiction on the small screen is taking the idea of AI and running with it, creating a range of near futures that we can all be scared of. </p>
<p><strong>Click here to listen to <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/the-anthill">more episodes of The Anthill</a>, on themes including <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthill-7-on-belief-69448">Beliefs</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthill-9-when-scientists-experiment-on-themselves-71852">Self-experimentation</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthill-4-fuel-64021">Fuel</a>.</strong> </p>
<p><em>The Anthill theme music is by <a href="https://www.melodyloops.com/search/How+to+Steal+a+Million+Dollars/">Alex Grey for Melody Loops</a>.
Music in the futurists segment is <a href="http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?feels%5B%5D=Epic&feels%5B%5D=Intense&feels%5B%5D=Suspenseful&page=1">Impending Boom</a> by Kevin MacLeod via Incompetech, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oI77NRTpC8Q">Fausto Bongelli’s recording</a> of Virgilio Mortari’s piece, Fox-trot Futurista. Music in the utopia segment by <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Music_For_Podcasts_3/13_I_Believe_in_You">I believe in you</a>, by Lee Rosevere and sound effects by <a href="https://www.freesound.org/people/dobroide/sounds/71335/">dobroide</a>. Sound effects in future studies segment from <a href="https://www.freesound.org/people/mknausscat/sounds/54202/">mknausscat</a>, <a href="https://www.freesound.org/people/cydon/sounds/268868/">cydon</a> and <a href="https://www.freesound.org/people/CGEffex/sounds/93078/">CGEffex</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>A big thanks to City University London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios.</em></p>
<p><em>Correction: The section on Thomas More’s Utopia states that he was hung, drawn and quartered. He was in fact <a href="http://www.biography.com/people/thomas-more-9414278#at-odds-with-henry-&-subsequent-beheading">beheaded</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In this episode we look at historical visions of the future and how accurate they were, the future of work, and what it's like to predict the future for a day job.Will de Freitas, Environment + Energy Editor, UK editionAnnabel Bligh, Business & Economy Editor and Podcast Producer, The Conversation UKGemma Ware, Head of AudioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/690552016-11-29T03:41:35Z2016-11-29T03:41:35ZFrom the Gold Coast to Geelong: how cities are shaping visions of their futures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146648/original/image-20161119-19345-9c77q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Geelong is working on a long-term vision to ensure a bright new day dawns for the city.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Russo</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Our Future”, a year-long consultation process about a long-term vision for the City of Geelong, has begun. City of Greater Geelong CEO Kelvin Spiller engaged the first UNESCO chair of futures studies, <a href="http://www.soif.org.uk/sohail-inayatullah/">Sohail Inayatullah</a>, to kick-start the project in September.</p>
<p>Spiller, who has produced <a href="http://emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/FS-02-2016-0003">outcomes for city visioning</a> initiatives on the Sunshine Coast, describes <a href="https://geelongaustralia.com.au/ourfuture/default.aspx">Our Future</a> as a process of “presenting new perceptions, future directions, identifying used futures and new scenarios”. In a rapidly changing world, citizens use scenario thinking to gain insights into how cities can create alternative possibilities and solutions. </p>
<h2>How does industry see the future?</h2>
<p>Inayatullah helped workshops of industry professionals develop various industry scenarios: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Geelong’s emerging futures emphasise its great coastal beauty and its people’s strengths. The city remains small compared to the Gold Coast although, with 229,000 people, Greater Geelong is still among the largest of 561 local government areas in Australia. It is attractive, scenic and touristy. The city’s tranquil bay and marina, picturesque vineyards and proximity attract holidaymakers from Melbourne. </p></li>
<li><p>Artificial intelligence (AI) futures open up a journey on the digital highway to build crowdsourced ideas, new funding models and business start-ups. Geelong’s traditional motor vehicle <a href="http://users.tpg.com.au/gmc/industry_strengths.html">manufacturing culture</a> combines with a spirit of innovation and global enterprise. The city promotes, evolves and services the introduction of driverless cars, the gaming industry, smart technologies and robotics.</p></li>
<li><p>Geelong’s population density, growing diversity, economic mix and proximity to Melbourne’s demographic richness support it as a social and education city. Geelong increases its transport and connectedness to its unique destinations to attract wide interests, new worker profiles and residents seeking a “sea change” from Melbourne’s inner suburbs. Residents network with local business owners and workers to generate services and programs for regional neighbours and Melbourne’s markets.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>What does the community want?</h2>
<p>Guided by Inayatullah, a community interactive session used metaphors to bring home a message of continual transition. He describes the use of metaphors as being a decisive factor in shifting narrative strategy:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If you don’t innovate and create agency to shift your own narrative, then culture eats strategy for breakfast. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/blP0Q61-SXI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Professor Sohail Inayatullah at the Geelong Our Future community session.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Geelong’s history of innovation includes the development of the world’s <a href="http://www.intown.com.au/feature/geelongs-ute-a-world-first.htm">first ute</a> and the <a href="https://museumvictoria.com.au/about/mv-news/2009/harrison-refrigerator-model/">first industrial refrigerator</a>. This history suggests Geelong could provide services to global niche markets. </p>
<p>The community also suggested transitions from costly and unnatural botanic gardens to green bionic gardens – sprawling rooftop gardens, indoor gardens and rainwater systems flowing into indigenous gardens. Gardens would beautify municipal roads and infrastructure. </p>
<p>Another suggested transition was from being a “dormitory of Melbourne” to being a retreat for Melbourne holidaymakers and a “hive” location for its best thinkers to create their futures.</p>
<p>In the community session, I outlined Gold Coast’s <a href="http://www.gchaveyoursay.com.au/bfpdiscussionforum">Bold Future</a> initiative. My presentation featured the city’s growth, including 100 new high-rises on the Surfers Paradise skyline in five decades. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QcdtmXYoRQs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The author explains how Gold Coast prepared for growth.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Navigating different growth scenarios</h2>
<p>The challenge for Geelong is to navigate through growth scenarios such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Sustainable growth: five new high-rises emerge to support low-level tourism, conference accommodation and a burgeoning education and health precinct.</p></li>
<li><p>Overdevelopment: an oversupply of residential and holiday maker apartments become difficult to fill, halting investment. Population waves are required to sustain rates and market base.</p></li>
<li><p>Underdevelopment: Gold Coast’s rapid growth raises questions about Geelong’s slow growth and missed opportunities to develop high-rises alongside celebratory events packages. These packages rely on transport and tourism infrastructure and include the building of stadiums. The strength of underdevelopment, however, is that Geelong remains a clean, green and historically beautiful seaside city.</p></li>
<li><p>Negative growth: collapse results in generations of hardship. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>An outcome of Gold Coast’s 2037 vision is its <a href="http://healthknowledge.moregoldcoast.com.au/">Health and Knowledge Precinct</a>. The 200-hectare site has generated more than A$5 billion in investment and is now linked by light rail to the city’s tourism centres.</p>
<p>Spiller noted that Geelong’s Our Future is continuing a 175-year process of reinvention. He hailed transformational metaphors that saw the city as more than a technology hub, potentially providing a deep commitment to networking to create a Silicon Valley. These have led to visions of transforming from a “resort city” to a “city of health and wellness”, from an “industrial, agricultural city” to a creative lifestyle, and from a “sleepy hollow” to an “emerging and sustainable city”. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fJVpOAi0dXo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Kelvin Spiller talks about the visions for Geelong’s future.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Time for feedback on Geelong’s future</h2>
<p>Our Future extends over five stages, with the final three to begin in 2017. </p>
<p>From January to March, the community can comment on ideas presented to date. Stages four and five will provide vision documents and conclude with an exhibition of the foresight journey the city has created.</p>
<p>Spiller and his team are developing a ten-to-30-year Our Future vision and strategies, for the city’s social, environmental and community infrastructure in particular. You can have your say about Geelong’s future via the <a href="https://geelongaustralia.com.au/ourfuture/survey.aspx">Our Future survey</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Russo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Greater Geelong’s ‘Our Future’ is a process of involving industry professionals and the community in the development of a long-term vision for Victoria’s second-biggest city.Colin Russo, Futurist, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/618512016-07-21T01:11:56Z2016-07-21T01:11:56ZA tale of five cities: applying foresight to shape their futures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130828/original/image-20160718-2147-nb3akg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How people conceive of their city's future is important in shaping how the city's future unfolds.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://500px.com/photo/142911911/brisbane-at-night-panaramic-goodwill-bridge-by-zachary-powson">Zachary Powson/500px.com</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mayors, CEOs, citizens and policy analysts are working to create uplifting images of their future cities. Their intended result is clear unifying visions for the city futures they desire.</p>
<p>So how can foresight make a difference in cities? </p>
<h2>Visioning</h2>
<p>The first way foresight improves cities is through <a href="http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/effective-engagement/toolkit/tool-visioning">visioning</a> projects. The City of Greater Geelong is aiming to look ahead 20 to 30 years through its first visioning and strategy project, Geelong 2040. Interviewed about this, Geelong City CEO Kelvin Spiller said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Geelong 2040 will be a city-changing experience, for the long-term betterment of its residents and stakeholders. City visioning will be supported by community engagement. In the same manner that corporate engagement helps the carriage of new innovations upwards, visioning can do this for the planning of urban areas. </p>
<p>Perhaps longer-term visioning should be legislated to encourage managers to help cascade preferences upward and not only into the city vision.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Scenarios</h2>
<p>The second way foresight shapes cities is by applying futures methods like scenarios. Scenarios use group problem-solving and collective cognition to shape insights into alternatives.</p>
<p>What are our 2040 city futures scenarios? Considering an emerging <a href="http://www.shapingseq.com.au">regional plan</a> for Southeast Queensland, professor <a href="http://www.metafuture.org/about-us/">Sohail Inayatullah</a>, the first UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, created the following alternatives:</p>
<p><strong>Scenario one:</strong> visions are achieved and our cities are still liveable. By 2040, the population has dramatically increased, but good governance, community consultation and foresight have mitigated negative possibilities (crime, congestion, pollution) and enhanced positive possibilities (job growth, green belt protection, water and energy management). </p>
<p>People want to move into these visionary cities, even with higher housing prices. A fair go is still possible.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario two: hot and paved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/danspink/15698491719/in/photolist-pVdSEk">dnlspnk/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Scenario two:</strong> cities arrive at the fate of being “hot and paved”. Market pressures kept driving up housing prices. Developers paid lip service to green and social concerns and a two-class society has emerged. Traffic problems did not decrease; rather, efforts to widen highways led to more congestion. Funding went to major highway connections while public transport and alternative working-from-home practices were overlooked. </p>
<p>Global warming has only made life worse – temperatures continue to rise, water shortages increase. Health indicators worsen. </p>
<p>Three tiers of government look to each other for solutions. Federal governments just seek to stay in power. Capacity for sustainable futures shrinks. </p>
<p><strong>Scenario three:</strong> worse yet, 2040 could be wired and miserable. In this scenario, the previous 20 years have been a series of confrontations between local, state and federal governments, between developers and environmentalists, between individual freedom and security, young and old, rural and coastal areas, and new migrants (many environmental refugees) and old migrants. </p>
<p>It is a world of endless sprawl, congested highways and gang warfare. Technology and power are used to keep collective peace.</p>
<p><strong>Scenario four:</strong> the concern is for the long-term future. Councils all over Australia continue to develop their own visions. As a result, there is a community capacity to innovate. </p>
<p>The percentage of people known as “cultural creatives” has grown dramatically. The values of sustainability, spirituality, innovation and global governance have become the official values.</p>
<p>The main changes are toward home-based work, public transport and active transport. Futures thinking is helping cities get ahead of challenges such as climate change, population growth and democratic policy selection. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L5MJ_APlLc4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An introduction to Sohail Inayatullah’s work on futures thinking.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Inayatullah’s new book, <a href="http://www.metafuture.org/product/what-works-2">What Works</a>, discusses other studies about city futures.</p>
<h2>Sustainable actions</h2>
<p>A third way foresight shapes futures is through sustainable actions. The following four southeast Queensland cities have undertaken city visioning in areas of public transport, energy and environment, and liveability.</p>
<p>Brisbane is planning <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro-subway-system">subway metro</a> and cross-river rail projects. These will benefit commuters in the middle and outer suburbs, who are increasingly experiencing long periods of gridlock.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the Sunshine Coast, the council is building a solar plant to offset all its energy use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://d1j8a4bqwzee3.cloudfront.net/~/media/Corporate/Images/AuthorsPageImages/artists-impression-solar-farm-carousel.jpg?la=en">Artist's impression, Sunshine Coast Regional Council</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the Sunshine Coast, a 15-megawatt <a href="http://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Council/Planning-and-Projects/Major-Regional-Projects/Sunshine-Coast-Solar-Farm">solar-powered plant</a> is a first for Australian local government. It will offset the council’s entire electricity consumption by 2017. </p>
<p>On the Gold Coast, 7.3km of <a href="http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Projects/Name/G/Gold-Coast-Light-Rail-Stage-2.aspx">light rail</a> extensions will be delivered before the 2018 Commonwealth Games. This will ease congestion, improve accessibility and promote economic growth.</p>
<p>In Logan, a <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/brisbane-south-bank-entertainment-precinct-inspires-plans-for-similar-project-in-logan/news-story/b84b85d938a861baced5c2f22686f4c4">Southbank development</a> will create recreational space on river banks alongside floating restaurants to stimulate investment.</p>
<p>When I interviewed former Brisbane City CEO Jude Munro about city foresight, she observed: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The benefits from closely linking land use and transport planning are a clear priority. However, more is required. Better legislation is called for to help cities to plan with foresight, but also city councils should be trialling a range of other measures being employed successfully in Australia. </p>
<p>For example, having a community coalition of local leaders like the one the City of Logan is building can have positive insights for local governance teams to consider. Also, a dedicated team like the <a href="http://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/3245">urban renewal team in Brisbane</a> in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s could help re-establish principles of local area planning in cities of southeast Queensland.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In southeast Queensland, a <a href="http://www.shapingseq.com.au/">new regional plan</a> will unite its cities’ plans under a high-level strategic vision for the next 50 years.</p>
<p>Inayatullah, Spiller, Munro and I agree that, to ensure long-term actions work sustainably, cities should engage stakeholders and communities in visioning, involve futurists who understand how to apply and deepen scenarios and foresight methods, and create strategies within a futures framework. The last step relies upon:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>developing stronger sectoral, suburban and regionally aligned long-term plans;</p></li>
<li><p>aligning city short-term corporate plans to long-term visions;</p></li>
<li><p>working with state and federal government to align city visions with global East-West strategies, including geopolitical, economic and cultural elements; and</p></li>
<li><p>refreshing visions using futurists’ methods to ensure a scientific and democratic engagement process. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Foresight is synonymous with a transforming, renewable and complex urbanism. Globally, cities are driving change and applying foresight to open their markets and improve collective prosperity and places.</p>
<p>The need for sustainable urbanism compels us to update plans not only for physical infrastructure but also for “softer” matters of population, energy, ecology, safety, education, health and seamless connection up, down and across sectors, borders and cultures. The more we think ahead with greater depth and breadth of understanding and co-operation, the better our city futures will be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Russo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With foresight, we can steer our cities closer to the future we want instead of the futures we fear.Colin Russo, Futurist, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/597422016-06-14T01:15:30Z2016-06-14T01:15:30ZQueensland’s 50-year vision for its southeast must take heed of all region’s future needs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124536/original/image-20160531-13769-1rzbj5e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Southeast Queensland Regional Plan’s revision will include engagement of the community.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Russo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Queensland government recently launched a <a href="http://www.shapingseq.com.au/">call for ideas</a> to shape a revised plan for the future of Southeast Queensland.</p>
<p>The deputy premier and minister for infrastructure, local government and planning, Jackie Trad <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/5/13/south-east-queenslanders-invited-to-help-shape-the-regions-future">spoke recently</a> of the opportunities for Southeast Queenslanders to grow communities sustainably and protect the region’s amenity – its environs, facilities, services and values.</p>
<p>This plan will consider consequences for the next 50 years. A 20-year plan will underpin the 50-year vision. </p>
<p>However, a long-term plan can’t properly underpin a vision without engaging many of Southeast Queensland’s stakeholders and visitors. It must also use appropriate <a href="http://metafuture.org/books/product/what-works-case-studies-in-the-practice-of-foresight/">futures methods</a> to help look ahead 50 years.</p>
<h2>What role for futures thinking?</h2>
<p>Professional futures studies tools help to map, anticipate and deepen understanding of complex local and global trends and challenges. Kelvin Spiller’s experience as CEO at Maroochy Shire Council, on the Sunshine Coast, includes a process of “visioning” to establish long-term priorities across the whole city.</p>
<p>Now CEO of Geelong City Council, Spiller believes such visioning is vital for successful local government:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… particularly when there are service implications worth tens of millions of dollars or infrastructure replacement is necessary.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He employs the following steps to bring about change in cities:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>visioning with stakeholders;</p></li>
<li><p>service planning;</p></li>
<li><p>asset strategy planning;</p></li>
<li><p>encouraging leaders and managers via upskilling and guidance contained in legislation;</p></li>
<li><p>gaining a clear understanding of the council, government and community financial opportunities and constraints in relation to the vision as identified by the wider community. Link the infrastructure and social requirements of the vision to the finances available;</p></li>
<li><p>managing carefully the expectations, what can be achieved and timelines with the community, key stakeholders and governments; and</p></li>
<li><p>regularly refreshing the vision and strategic direction process with key stakeholders.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What the plan needs</h2>
<p>The plan must consider the pressing and <a href="http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/3.pdf">engaging futures</a> that affect the region’s residents. These include the softer social and harder economic and environmental issues and solutions that must cascade throughout cities if we want to achieve sustainability. </p>
<p>Southeast Queensland’s population will grow to <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/5/13/south-east-queenslanders-invited-to-help-shape-the-regions-future">5.3 million people</a> in the next 25 years, according to Trad. This growth has implications for how Queenslanders settle and then relocate in the region given the demographics of age groups and lifestyle changes – for example, work opportunities, career changes and family developments.</p>
<p>One implication of accelerated change is how quickly preferences of Generations X and Y change from wanting co-location options, specialised services and village communities. Each generation is seeking services that match their particular needs. </p>
<h2>Futures opportunities up for grabs</h2>
<p>In visioning initiatives in the region’s cities, communities have created <a href="http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19-3-A3-Russo.pdf">city visions</a>. These called for the priorities to be areas of community and cultural connection, engagement, openness and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>A priority is pride in cities, and how we sustain a socially just and connected society across all demographics. Taking care of youth through to the elderly, multiple cultures, the disabled and disempowered requires designing and innovating to meet future health, security, cultural, education and social needs.</p>
<p>Uniting people around behaviours that help maintain and enhance the quality of our ecosystems, pristine air, water, food and energy requirements will remain of vital importance. </p>
<p>Our economic interests include prospects for jobs and prosperity – not simply in creating wealth, but also in creating opportunities. Transport and technology challenges, the new digital economy and our knowledge economy factor highly.</p>
<p>Our capacity to connect regionally to globally is also critical. Economic hotspots around the globe are shifting, as are the cities, mega-cities and cultures we network with. </p>
<h2>Questions remain</h2>
<p>The plan’s strengths are in thinking about issues dealing with infrastructure and land use. Yet, in proposing the plan’s revision, some questions about “softer” issues remain unanswered:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>In considering long-term consequences, will the plan help the creation of innovative futures networks that empower hard-to-reach communities alongside policymakers, businesses, NGOs, consultants and universities? And will it legislate for more and better community engagement standards by cities in the region?</p></li>
<li><p>Given the projected population growth and accelerating pace of technological and climate change, will the plan encourage cities to develop city-wide visions and community plans to help them consider the opportunities and challenges ahead? </p></li>
<li><p>What issues will the plan translate into strategy and actions to tackle regional challenges? Will these include health, education, policing and encouragement of jobs that create sustainable futures?</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Answers to these questions will depend largely on how stakeholders, community members and interested persons respond to the <a href="http://www.shapingseq.com.au/about-shaping-seq">call for feedback</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Russo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A long-term plan can’t properly underpin a vision without engaging many of Southeast Queensland’s stakeholders and visitors or without the use of appropriate futures methods.Colin Russo, Futurist, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/495602015-10-26T18:18:06Z2015-10-26T18:18:06ZHow to build a city fit for 50°C heatwaves<p>The Persian Gulf is already one of the hottest parts of the world, but by the end of the century increasing heat combined with intense humidity will make the region too hot for habitation, according to research published in <a href="http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nclimate2833">Nature Climate Change</a>.</p>
<p>Heating and air conditioning currently permit humans to live everywhere from Siberia to the Sahara. However the extreme heatwaves predicted for the Gulf, where temperatures will regularly hit 50°C or even 60°C, will reach the limits of the <a href="http://nceub.commoncense.info/uploads/04-01-05-Zhang.pdf">thermal adaptation</a> that buildings can provide. </p>
<p>Our ancestors lived without the sophisticated thermal control systems we typically use in modern buildings; they implicitly used <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-cope-with-soaring-temperatures-in-gulf-cities-traditional-architecture-might-help-49760">different “bioclimatic designs”</a>, such as natural ventilation or south-facing windows, and these skills are still valuable in many climates today. But the latest data suggest this will not be enough. </p>
<p>So is there a future for habitation in the hottest regions of the world? It seems mass migration is less likely than staying put and taking on the challenge. However figuring out how to live comfortably and sustainably while it’s hot enough to fry an egg on the sidewalk may provide a fillip for environmentally sensitive design and urban development throughout the world.</p>
<h2>Living with intense heat</h2>
<p>The climate is a problem but does offer some opportunities. The amount of sunshine available means there should be no shortage of solar electricity, though we need to develop efficient storage systems too. We could also take advantage of day-to-night ambient temperature variations using “thermal mass” techniques to even out temperature fluctuations.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99727/original/image-20151026-18426-1ic5z5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99727/original/image-20151026-18426-1ic5z5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99727/original/image-20151026-18426-1ic5z5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99727/original/image-20151026-18426-1ic5z5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99727/original/image-20151026-18426-1ic5z5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1167&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99727/original/image-20151026-18426-1ic5z5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1167&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99727/original/image-20151026-18426-1ic5z5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1167&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dino-architecture? Bahrain’s twin towers are covered in glass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/allandonque/5298791735/">Allan Donque</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We will have to make significant changes to building design – highly glazed structures that <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-means-we-cant-keep-living-and-working-in-glass-houses-45006">soak up heat</a> will become architectural dinosaurs. Traditional ideas from hot regions of the world will resurface: thick walls giving thermal stability (but enhanced with smarter materials such as composites with layers of insulation or perhaps embedded “phase-change” materials), used together with small windows. Building surfaces will need to be coated with smart materials that reflect heat gain – these already exist and researchers have <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X06002039">looked at their perfomance</a> in the hot summers of cities such as Athens. </p>
<p>We’ll need to optimise where and when we occupy buildings, to seek out the coolest spots and take advantage of less intense night time conditions. We may find ourselves living partly underground in order to benefit from lower and more stable temperatures to be found a few metres <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-30586983">below the Earth’s surface</a>. </p>
<p>In intense heat, finding some shade becomes essential. Buildings, streets, services and even entire transportation systems need to be entirely shaded or even fully underground. Some of these features are already showcased in the <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2013/12/features/reality-hits-masdar">Masdar City</a> development in Abu Dhabi, though the project (which had significant design input from Norman Foster and partners) is not yet <a href="http://www.masdar.ae/en/city/detail/one-of-the-worlds-most-sustainable-communities-masdar-city-is-an-emerging-g">fully operational</a>.</p>
<h2>Switch on the air con industry</h2>
<p>Expect an air conditioning boom. This will cost a lot both to build and to operate, and we’ll have to come up with systems specially designed for extreme temperatures. The thermodynamics of current designs which rely on temperature differences between heat absorption and heat rejection mean it would be very difficult to achieve sufficient and efficient heat removal as these change and narrow. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99718/original/image-20151026-18435-zf66bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Dubai even the bus stops are air conditioned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jaygalvin/16923955145/">Jay Galvin</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One opportunity would be to use the Earth or the sea/rivers as “heat sinks”, rather than the external air, as these will be at lower temperatures and have the ability to absorb the heat, though perhaps with as yet unknown long term effects. It is also likely that air conditioning might most effectively be used during the night-time to pre-cool the building; night-time air temperatures will allow more efficient refrigeration.</p>
<p>Urban design and the ways in which cities are used at time of extreme heat will also need to be considered. Moving around outdoors without protection could become as unimaginable as walking unprotected from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-path-of-the-polar-bears-what-its-like-to-be-an-arctic-scientist-47060">polar research station in winter</a>. </p>
<p>This obviously causes significant problems for those who must work outside: places of refuge may need to be constructed and the very act of building may need to be restricted to the “winter” (or rather slightly cooler) months. Construction products will also be obliged to change in order to cope with more extreme thermal stresses and expansion effects.</p>
<h2>Heatwave cities</h2>
<p>The shape of cities and the massing of their major buildings will change so that groupings offer a degree of self-protection. Streets will be designed to optimise shading and, when available, cooling air ventilation. The spaces between buildings will need to be carefully designed and uses (such as what might happen underground) considered alongside services provided to citizens. Shopping malls could be submerged and used as links between areas, just as the underground streets found in northern latitude cities like Montreal are used in winter.</p>
<p>Cities themselves may shift away from coastal to inland zones due to the problematic combination of high temperatures with high humidities near to water masses. In drier atmospheres, technologies such as <a href="http://energy.gov/energysaver/evaporative-coolers">evaporative cooling</a> (in their simplest form fountains and water sprays) can be used to reduce temperature. </p>
<p>A technological alternative to this might be the use of moisture absorbing materials (regenerated desiccants) to dehumidify the atmosphere, but this would be a significant and complex task on the scale required. Moving whole cities can only be a long term plan but its something worth thinking about now, while there is time. </p>
<p><em>Read more: could turning to traditional techniques provide a solution? Amin Al-Habaibeh, professor of intelligent engineering systems at Nottingham Trent University, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-cope-with-soaring-temperatures-in-gulf-cities-traditional-architecture-might-help-49760">thinks so</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Pitts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We can live comfortably and sustainably in hot places – but we’ll have to ditch the glassy skyscrapers.Adrian Pitts, Professor of Sustainable Architecture, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/497602015-10-26T18:16:47Z2015-10-26T18:16:47ZCould traditional architecture offer relief from soaring temperatures in the Gulf?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99706/original/image-20151026-18411-48zjls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/erwinb/4159979618/">Erwin Bolwidt/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Temperatures in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq and Iran could soar to uninhabitable levels during the course of this century, according to a <a href="http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nclimate2833">new study</a>. </p>
<p>Already, places such as <a href="http://gulfnews.com/news/uae/environment/temperature-shoots-up-to-52-degree-celsius-in-al-ain-and-other-parts-of-uae-1.118206">Al Ain</a> and Kuwait <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/jul/22/where-world-hottest-city-kuwait-karachi-ahvaz">can experience</a> temperatures of up to 52°C. But the study predicts that the effects of global warming and the increase in greenhouse gases could push the average temperature up to the mid 50°Cs or lower 60°Cs. </p>
<p>Currently, many residents of the gulf can find refuge in air-conditioned homes, shopping centres and cars. But as temperatures increase, so does the need for cheaper, more sustainable, less energy-intensive ways of staying cool. Fortunately, the region’s past offers a rich source of architectural inspiration. </p>
<h2>A history of heat</h2>
<p>Historically, the inhabitants of the Gulf were either farmers living near oases in agricultural villages, Bedouins living in tents in the desert, or urban dwellers living in cities. Given <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects.html">the global trend</a> toward urbanisation, it makes sense to take a closer look at how the latter group coped with the heat. </p>
<p>Traditional buildings in the gulf’s cities and villages are designed to maximise shading, reduce thermal gain of the sun radiation, regulate building temperature and enhance air circulation. These effects are achieved through a clever combination of building materials, placement and design.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99725/original/image-20151026-18446-rbk4b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99725/original/image-20151026-18446-rbk4b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99725/original/image-20151026-18446-rbk4b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99725/original/image-20151026-18446-rbk4b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99725/original/image-20151026-18446-rbk4b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99725/original/image-20151026-18446-rbk4b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99725/original/image-20151026-18446-rbk4b5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All natural.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/erwinb/4158964098/sizes/l">Erwin Bolwidt</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Natural materials such as limestone and mud – in some cases mixed with local desert plants – provide a construction material with the capacity to regulate building temperatures. The material itself is capable of absorbing moisture in humid conditions, which can later evaporate during hot and sunny days to provide a slight cooling effect. And the sandy texture and colour of the buildings reduces both the absorption and emission of radiating heat. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99707/original/image-20151026-18458-192vxlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99707/original/image-20151026-18458-192vxlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99707/original/image-20151026-18458-192vxlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99707/original/image-20151026-18458-192vxlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99707/original/image-20151026-18458-192vxlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99707/original/image-20151026-18458-192vxlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99707/original/image-20151026-18458-192vxlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Built close, for comfort.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/felibrilu/5534583869/sizes/l">Felibrilu/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Traditional buildings are placed adjacent to one another, with narrow roads and alleyways in between. This means that the ratio of the area exposed to the sun relative to the building’s total volume is minimised, which in turn limits heat increases during the day time. </p>
<p>Many traditional structures feature an internal courtyard, often containing trees and a water well. The courtyard is typically surrounded by rooms or walls on all sides, maximising the area in shadow throughout the day and creating a space for socialising in the evenings. When the sun bears down at midday, the courtyard works as a chimney for the hot air to rise and be replaced by cooler air from the surroundings rooms – this promotes air circulation and creates a cooling effect.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99692/original/image-20151026-18446-1ksjh0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99692/original/image-20151026-18446-1ksjh0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99692/original/image-20151026-18446-1ksjh0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99692/original/image-20151026-18446-1ksjh0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99692/original/image-20151026-18446-1ksjh0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99692/original/image-20151026-18446-1ksjh0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99692/original/image-20151026-18446-1ksjh0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lattice windows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/seier/2078287373/sizes/l">seier+seier/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Glass is not a common material in traditional buildings. A typical room has two external windows: one very small window, located high up the wall, which is kept open to allow air to circulate and let in natural light. The second is larger, and closed by wooden shutters, with grooves to allow the flow of air inside the room while maintaining privacy. Rooms also have windows towards the internal courtyard for improved cooling. Finally, a <em>mushrabiya</em> – a projecting window with carved wooden latticework, typically located on the upper stories of a building – allowed for better air circulation and a view. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99724/original/image-20151026-18443-j0ohjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99724/original/image-20151026-18443-j0ohjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99724/original/image-20151026-18443-j0ohjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99724/original/image-20151026-18443-j0ohjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99724/original/image-20151026-18443-j0ohjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99724/original/image-20151026-18443-j0ohjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99724/original/image-20151026-18443-j0ohjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wind tower.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/felibrilu/5534589927/sizes/l">Felibrilu/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some buildings also have a wind tower, which creates natural ventilation by circulating cool air. The narrow streets allowed them to be covered in most cases by light material from date palm trees to avoid direct sun light. This allowed for better air circulation between streets and courtyards of buildings, via the rooms.</p>
<p>All of these features helped to keep traditional buildings cool. But the question remains, how can we apply them in today’s cities? </p>
<h2>Hot, modern buildings</h2>
<p>Modern buildings in the Gulf are built predominantly from reflective glass, concrete and asphalt, which means that temperatures really soar during day time, due to high reflection or high absorption and emission of radiated heat. </p>
<p>But with research and improvements in building and pavement materials, designs, urban planning, insulation and the use of renewable energy, cities in the Gulf could maintain a comfortable lifestyle, with a lower level of carbon emission and fossil fuel use. </p>
<p>For example, Masdar city in the United Arab Emirates has attempted to combine some of the lessons learned from the past with modern technologies by increasing shaded areas, creating narrow streets and constructing a wind tower. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99736/original/image-20151026-18446-12j16d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/99736/original/image-20151026-18446-12j16d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99736/original/image-20151026-18446-12j16d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99736/original/image-20151026-18446-12j16d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99736/original/image-20151026-18446-12j16d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99736/original/image-20151026-18446-12j16d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/99736/original/image-20151026-18446-12j16d9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The basic function of my patented heat sink.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The use of insulation would also reduce the need for air conditioning and lower electricity consumption. Meanwhile, natural or new materials which absorb moisture and increase thermal capacity (meaning the material can maintain lower temperatures in higher heats) could regulate heat gain and facilitate the natural cooling process. </p>
<p>I have developed a new patented technology to regulate building temperatures in extremely hot conditions using a heat sink in the ground. The heat sink will allow the ground to exchange heat with the envelope of the building, thereby reducing its thermal gain on hot days. </p>
<p>In recent years, the Gulf countries have sat up and paid attention to renewable energy and sustainability measures. Research and development is expected to progress further in this area if people are to live comfortably at the expected high levels of temperature, while reducing their dependency on fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions.</p>
<p><em>Read more: Adrian Pitts, professor of sustainable architecture at the University of Huddersfield, looks <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-city-fit-for-50-heatwaves-49560">at the impact on cities</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49760/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amin Al-Habaibeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Temperatures are set to rocket throughout the 21st century, but design lessons from history could help the gulf states stay cool.Amin Al-Habaibeh, Professor of Intelligent Engineering Systems, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/417722015-05-19T20:05:08Z2015-05-19T20:05:08ZWe need a smart urban revolution, and Asia is just the place to do it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81810/original/image-20150515-25422-hhkgvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hong Kong: a showcase for Asian urban development.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AHong_Kong_Night_Skyline.jpg">CarolSpears/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back in the 1950s, the number of people living in cities was <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">about 750 million</a>. That rose to 2.9 billion by 2010 and is <a href="http://www.unfpa.org/urbanization">predicted to hit 5 billion by 2030</a>. As more of the world’s people call cities home, the challenge is to transform urban areas so that they offer a safe and sustainable place to live for generations to come.</p>
<p>Much of this growth will be in Asia, so the way Asian cities are designed, constructed and powered will clearly have a major influence on global efforts to moderate greenhouse gas emissions and diminish the impact of global warming.</p>
<p>With 8 million people crammed into what is an increasingly vertical space, Hong Kong is the evolving model for Asian urbanization. So it’s fitting that Hong Kong was the place where I and several fellow Nobel Laureates signed a <a href="http://www.nobel-cause.de/hong-kong-2014/memorandum/hong-kong-memorandum.pdf">memorandum</a> endorsing the need for cities to take a central role in minimizing the harm caused by climate change.</p>
<p>How will cities do this, not just in Asia but right around the globe? Our Hong Kong meeting – the fourth <a href="http://asiasociety.org/hong-kong/4th-nobel-laureates-symposium-global-sustainability-4c-changing-climate-changing-cities">Nobel Symposium on Global Sustainability</a>, attended by Nobel Laureates, senior government officials, climatologists, behavioural scientists, engineers, architects, and business leaders from Hong Kong and mainland China – both defined the problem and discussed strategies.</p>
<h2>Pollution and power</h2>
<p>As climate scientists John Schellnhuber and Johan Rockstrom of the <a href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</a> (which co-hosted the meeting) pointed out, the first rule of capitalism is “don’t kill your customers.” But people in cities are <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/">already dying from respiratory disease</a>. Anyone who has visited an Asian city will understand that this is a consequence of massive air pollution. </p>
<p>While the browny-grey clouds of particulate pollution that hang over these cities partially blot out the Sun and have a cooling effect, the sources that generate it – largely coal and automobile exhausts – also release greenhouse gases that raise temperatures in the longer term. Successive speakers at the symposium made it very obvious that China is determined to cut its coal use, fast. </p>
<p>Hong Kong itself currently generates half of its electricity from coal (see figure 6 <a href="http://www.enb.gov.hk/sites/default/files/en/node2605/Consultation%20Document.pdf">here</a>) and, according to local executive Christine Loh, will <a href="http://www.enb.gov.hk/en/files/New_Air_Plan_en.pdf">cut that to 20% by 2020</a>. China has famously pledged to <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-climate-deal-at-last-a-real-game-changer-on-emissions-34148">peak its total greenhouse emissions by 2030</a> and Jiang Kejun of China’s Energy Research Institute emphasized that the aim is to source 70% of its electricity from renewables by 2050, if not long before. </p>
<p>That has to happen. Apart from the human costs, Nobel-winning economist Jim Mirrlees estimates that China’s GDP will fall dramatically if CO<sub>2</sub> emissions continue unchecked. And China, with its focus on solar and wind technology plus the new <a href="http://www.cdb.com.cn/english/">China Development Bank</a>, will be doing the “right thing” (both globally and in its own self interest) by supporting the dissemination of renewable energy in emerging economies. Apart from being on the wrong side of history, any argument that selling coal is likely to drive the economies of the future seems unrealistic.</p>
<h2>The rising tide of action</h2>
<p>A major concern for big coastal cities is, of course, sea-level rise. With storm surges, an increase of only 15 cm will evidently inundate much of Bangkok, while China’s low-lying, heavily industrialised Pearl River Delta – home to several megacities, including Hong Kong – is also very <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-11-30/climate-change-increasing-flood-risk-in-hong-kong-update1-">vulnerable to flooding</a>. Then Nobel-winning chemist and director of Japan’s RIKEN research institute, Ryoji Nyori, told the symposium that of the 34 million people in the greater Tokyo area, 15 million are at acute risk of ocean and river flooding. </p>
<p>The buildings and even the streets will need to be smart, too. Hong Kong architect Peter Cookson-Smith discussed underground water storage for cities and described how skyscraper foundations can serve as hybrid ventilation and heating/cooling systems. Meanwhile Roger Dennis, who leads the Sensing City Project in Christchurch, pointed out how building such technology into structures, pavements and the like can be used to moderate energy usage. </p>
<p>At a more direct level, Dennis described how Los Angeles has achieved a <a href="http://bsl.lacity.org/led.html">63% cut in its lighting bill</a> simply by switching to LED streetlights. An image of a light pole topped with a solar collector and a small wind generator illustrated how cities might also use their streetlights to generate power. All such micro-generation techniques will be made easier with the advent of affordable storage systems, like that <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-tesla-cracked-the-grid-energy-storage-problem-41131">recently unveiled by Tesla</a>, or the new <a href="http://www.ceic.unsw.edu.au/centers/vrb/technology-services/vanadium-redox-flow-batteries.html">vanadium redox flow battery</a> developed at the University of New South Wales.</p>
<p>From Canberra, ACT Labor MP Simon Corbell described how, using a high feed-in tariff (reimbursement of people generating power from solar on their roof) Australia’s capital is driving rapidly towards its <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/90_percent_renewable">90% renewable energy target</a>. Meanwhile, Copenhagen’s Mayor of Technical and Environmental Affairs, Morten Kabell, told us that his city is <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/copenhagens_ambitious_push_to_be_carbon_neutral_by_2025/2638">well on its way to being carbon-neutral by 2025</a>, is already heating and cooling itself using highly efficient central facilities and has 45% of its commuting population on bicycles. Top priority for snow clearing goes to the greatly enhanced system of bike lanes! </p>
<h2>Far-sighted vision</h2>
<p>Cities are dynamic places, and as such their politicians can afford to be adventurous. Frustrated with the inaction of national governments in thrall to vested interests, New York-based political theorist Benjamin Barber is doing his utmost to establish a <a href="http://www.globalparliamentofmayors.org/">Global Parliament of Mayors</a>, which will meet for the first time in Britain in October. </p>
<p>Embracing ambitious ideas will inevitably help innovative cities stay at the forefront of moves to decrease energy costs and clean up the atmosphere. For instance, Columbia and LSE academic Saskia Sassen suggested that every surface in the emerging global city should be have an environmental function. What did she mean? Solar energy generation, “living” green walls, passive heating and cooling, or other applications that may as yet be just a flash of barely perceived insight in some innovator’s mind?</p>
<p>For all this to happen, the world will need to witness a Third Industrial Revolution, focused on (and by) intensive, interactive urban environments and driven by a spectrum of innovators working in industry, government and, as Schellnhuber suggested, in “100,000 laboratories” – which, in a sense, include the expanding cities of our planet. </p>
<p>Clearly this massive transition is both an enormous challenge and offers incredible economic opportunities that, delivered by Asia’s burgeoning megacities, are right in Australia’s neighbourhood. As always, the future belongs to those with the courage to embrace it, while the fearful who turn resolutely to the past set us all up for disaster. Australia’s cities can help too – we have both the creativity and the awareness; we just need to point ourselves in the right direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter C. Doherty chairs the Board for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science. This role is unpaid. His research on immunity to the influenza A viruses is funded as part of an NHMRC Program grant. His lay books "The beginner's guide to winning the Nobel prize", "A light history of hot air", Sentinel chickens: what birds tell us about our health and the world" and "Pandemics: what everyone needs to know" discuss, among many other science related themes, aspects of climate and environmental science. He is also a member of The Conversation's board of directors.</span></em></p>Nobel Laureates met recently in Hong Kong to sign a memorandum calling for cities to help guard against climate change. As the most creative places on the planet, big cities are the perfect place to meet this challenge.Peter C. Doherty, Laureate Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/384022015-03-13T10:04:43Z2015-03-13T10:04:43ZHow green is your city: towards an index of urban sustainability<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74550/original/image-20150311-24168-1hus3xj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Packed but greener than many: The mass transit system in Delhi contributes to its lower-than-average carbon footprint ranking. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/stephanrebernik/8174666771/in/photolist-dsniCx-cMNZss-8PTgaG-9uqLcd-7ZfYHw-8a66Us-8a671A-7ZcLSF-7ZcLUk-b8ASV4-4ijvhX-4syngf-4iBVoC-dLEfjW-be8WU8-dLEffj-88UVRf-9dg4si-4DYMwg-9Yvi5-cWFocu-3mNg1F">Stephan Rebernik</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than half of the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">world’s population</a> lives in cities and that percentage continues to rise, making cities critical areas for adopting practices to preserve natural resources. </p>
<p>How green is your city? How does it match up to other cities? Is it making progress in becoming more sustainable? </p>
<p>There is no definitive list but we may be moving toward clearer answers to these questions. An exciting body of work is coming up with ways to measure the environmental impact of cities. Let’s look at three.</p>
<h2>Land, energy, water</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_basics_overview/">ecological footprint</a> measures how much land and water area a city requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its wastes. </p>
<p>Ecological footprint is measured in global hectares (gha) per capita. The global average is around 2.6. The footprint of London UK, for example, was measured at 4.5, slightly lower than the UK average of 4.6. More people in London use public transport than almost any other city in the UK, reducing the relative size of its footprint. </p>
<p>When the data are broken down by neighborhood, the biggest footprints are found in higher income areas where residents have larger homes and are more likely to have private automobiles. In San Francisco the <a href="http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_cities/">value was calculated</a> at 7.1 gha while in Calgary, Canada the value was 9.8 gha. Winters are cold in Calgary and most people use cars to get around. </p>
<p>Another measure is a city’s <strong>carbon footprint</strong>, which is the total amount of greenhouse gases it produces. The basic unit is kg or ton of CO2. The global average is 1.19 metric tons per person. One <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.10.001">2010 study</a> measured the carbon footprint of 12 cities: Beijing, Jakarta, London, Los Angeles, Manila, Mexico City, New Delhi, New York, São Paulo, Seoul, Singapore and Tokyo. The number included direct emissions from the metropolitan area, as well as emissions produced in the metro area but consumed elsewhere, such as goods manufactured in cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74552/original/image-20150311-24206-cisbuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74552/original/image-20150311-24206-cisbuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74552/original/image-20150311-24206-cisbuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74552/original/image-20150311-24206-cisbuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74552/original/image-20150311-24206-cisbuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74552/original/image-20150311-24206-cisbuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74552/original/image-20150311-24206-cisbuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A visualization of New York City’s daily carbon emissions with each bubble representing one ton of CO2.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/carbonquilt/8112404383/in/photolist-dmScc6-p6kgnS-fryj4X-7kq6dH-p2pg7C-p3ywgZ-dmSezo-4uXGNX-ewtmR-hnh8K-dmSdwN-hnh2m-2uTLQR-dmSecw-hnh5g-4R7m7t-fnfqTh-9Yprbc-bQoyae-eg99jP-bBtT7G-dmSfey-phsMJ-etmE9-etmCu-eZwkV-pfP5y-eZwif-eZwnS-etmLj-9gMJar-L7fpN-akYkCY-9k7Kmz-4uXGGx-9Y9HS4-9YqrQx-dmSd9M-dmSd32-9YcC3G-9YcC95-9Y9HGR-9YcBKd-oQpHVL-6exsNC-kV4dCy-9Y9HXT-jZ1X9z-oMGyfh-4A97ML">Carbon Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Four of the cities have footprints smaller than the global average: Delhi, Manila, Sao Paulo and Beijing, in part because of relatively high usage of public transportation. London was close to the global average, while Los Angeles had by far the largest, followed by Singapore, New York and Mexico City. </p>
<p>Another <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polsoc.2009.01.001">study</a> from 2009 measured the carbon footprint of the largest 100 metro areas in the US and found the higher-density metro areas had the smallest footprint. An even more recent <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es102221h">study of all US households</a> found that those in suburban areas had a much higher footprint than those in the larger cities.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.urban-wftp.eu/en/">water footprint</a> of a city is a measure of all the freshwater used to produce all the goods and services consumed in the city. This is a very difficult metric to compute because it includes the volume of freshwater consumed from surface water and ground water, the volume of rainwater consumed and the volume of freshwater used to dilute the pollutants created by the production of all goods and services for the city. </p>
<p>Studies that assessed the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2013.759">footprint of Milan, Italy</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2011.603383">Lijiang City, China</a> showed how the increasing footprint was straining those cities’ water supplies. </p>
<h2>Imperfect measures but a start</h2>
<p>These metrics are still in the early stages of development. There are lots of problems, including assessing the leakage of impacts from outside the city’s boundaries; the quality of data, which is too often imprecise and collected at different times for other purposes; and the lack of comparability between studies. The work is more embryonic than definitive. For example, we have yet to agree upon standard protocols for the data used and methods employed. </p>
<p>While the three metrics have problems in estimation and calibration, they constitute a start. Even at this still rudimentary stage, they provide some startling findings. Notably, these initial studies show that larger cities have smaller carbon footprints than smaller cities. And higher density cities have lower carbon footprints. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74551/original/image-20150311-24209-1saczeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74551/original/image-20150311-24209-1saczeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74551/original/image-20150311-24209-1saczeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74551/original/image-20150311-24209-1saczeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74551/original/image-20150311-24209-1saczeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74551/original/image-20150311-24209-1saczeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/74551/original/image-20150311-24209-1saczeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With more than half of the world’s population in cities, such as Singapore, urban areas need to start measuring their ecological footprint.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/besar_bears/531662142/in/photolist-NYUCE-yEM-pR6NAR-7r49EY-5XnyYC-fM2dZ-osgvoJ-ctBLG7-HUnma-5Tr4Av-7hNf3v-7YmFSv-oVe38c-U9YQf-8MgfB3-8MJwaw-2ftTRy-7m6WPS-puX3Er-9G5ucF-7jJdom-2fppy6-7aCzqM-ft8NGS-7Gjo3p-gTojs6-7oKRjk-wgUu-b9qdJK-C5imR-dAU73W-dTENs2-9qS6RT-4vrLit-acrU7a-qnuWZs-dAwMUT-di32z1-cuGsXC-4H2ZTR-6DgkmD-nRyZMa-pnC9Jn-7YmNVP-6iTWYP-62mSPA-7C3crg-np37Lz-86Uzw4-9W7NKK">Bernard Tey</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As we transition into a more urban future, this is cause for some hope and could offer direction on effective city planning. Certain urban forms reduce the carbon footprint; these include more compact urban growth, more mass transit and greater use of cleaner, more sustainable energy supplies for buildings and transportation.</p>
<p>We need to refine these metrics, develop new ones and so create a standardized and easily understood index of city sustainability. Perhaps the protocols for developing a city sustainability index should be on the agenda at the United Nations Climate Change Conference to be held in Paris later this year. </p>
<p>With better data and a standard index, policies can be evaluated, targets set and institutions held to account. By comparing these metrics, planners and citizens can see how sustainability-related factors correlate to how livable cities are. And a robust city sustainability index would benchmark where we are now and provide a measure of progress in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Emerging research looks at new ways to measure the ecological footprint of cities, a key step to making them more environmentally benign and perhaps more livable.John Rennie Short, Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355352014-12-19T10:50:58Z2014-12-19T10:50:58ZMaking cities better: voluntary programs aren’t enough<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67383/original/image-20141216-14144-6wlary.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How did this roof become green? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ideonexus/4202003130/sizes/l/in/photostream/">Ryan Somma</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voluntary programs are all the rage. From ratcheting up <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/02/12/launch-cybersecurity-framework">cybersecurity</a> to fighting <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let's_Move!">obesity</a>, firms in the United States and elsewhere voluntarily make pledges to do better than governmental regulation. </p>
<p>Firms are rewarded for doing so. Governments may stall the introduction of mandatory regulation, clients may be more inclined to buy their goods, and investors may consider them a safer haven for their money.</p>
<h2>Cities: both perpetrator and victim of climate change</h2>
<p>Voluntary programs are particularly used to improve cities. Traditional building codes and zoning regulation are often <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=NoK1BAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=governance+for+urban+sustainability+and+resilience&hl=en&sa=X&ei=li6KVN_NENGA8gXw8oDAAg&ved=0CDQQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=governance%20for%20urban%20sustainability%20and%20resilience&f=false">slow and not effective in responding to urban problems</a>. Governments, corporations and civil society groups expect that voluntary programs will do better.</p>
<p>Take climate change. Cities are responsible for <a href="http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf">30% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. This makes cities a key cause of climate change. </p>
<p>Yet, three decades of regulation requiring architects and developers to build efficient buildings have <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/PP7_Building_Codes_2013_WEB.pdf">not resulted in impressive results</a>. Buildings, and their occupants for that matter, still waste energy, water and other resources by the gallon, and produce greenhouse gasses by the megaton.</p>
<p>Climate change will also affect cities severely. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/23/climate-change-carbon-emissions-ipcc-extreme-weather">More extreme weather events</a> are expected in the near future. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy">Hurricane Sandy</a> was likely just a glimpse of things to come for city dwellers.</p>
<p>It makes sense, then, to prepare cities to such events. Increased resilience of buildings and infrastructure requires, however, enormous investments from governments – and from firms and households.</p>
<p>Because it is not certain when, where and how severely <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=xhNeobiGHJYC&printsec=frontcover&dq=six+degrees&hl=en&sa=X&ei=BV6KVOuVCsm68gXFzoHQBw&ved=0CCcQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=six%20degrees&f=false">climate change will exactly affect cities</a>, policymakers face <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/05/science/earth/05bloomberg.html?_r=0">severe opposition</a> from businesses and households when they propose mandatory upgrades of buildings and infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Voluntary programs for better cities</h2>
<p>It is because of the problems of mandating a response to climate change that the <a href="http://www.c40.org/">world’s major cities</a> have turned to voluntary programs to improve urban sustainability and resilience. They are supported by <a href="http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/ps/cud/index.html">corporations</a> and <a href="http://www.100resilientcities.org/">civil society groups</a> in doing so.</p>
<p>The expectation is that through collaboration between government, business and civil society, self regulation will be more effective than traditional governmental intervention. Globally, <a href="http://www.elgaronline.com/abstract/9781782548126.xml">a wide range of such programs</a> is now in place.</p>
<p>But is this trust in voluntary programs justified? My research finds it is not.</p>
<p>I have studied <a href="http://www.envirovoluntarism.info/">60 such programs around the world</a>. Yes, some of these have resulted in energy use reduction or improved resilience of buildings. Yet, the size of that reduction and the number of buildings whose resilience has been improved is marginal, at best.</p>
<h2>A program that looks good on the outside…</h2>
<p>One example tells it all. In 1993, the United States Green Building Council (<a href="http://www.usgbc.org/">USGBC</a>, a non-profit made up of representatives from the building industry, government and civil society groups) introduced its building certification program <a href="http://www.usgbc.org/leed">LEED</a> (Leadership in Environmental and Energy Design).</p>
<p>Building certification works a little like the energy ratings you find on your appliances at home. It helps to showcase the environmental credentials of buildings. In this respect, LEED is a simple and elegant idea: it allows for an easy comparison of a building’s environmental performance (in terms of energy, water and material use) with other buildings. </p>
<p>This makes building certification very attractive. It is easy to grasp that a Gold or Platinum certified building is somehow better than a Bronze of Silver certified one – let alone a non-certified building.</p>
<p>LEED is now in use as a standard in 135 countries and regions. Around the globe 20,000 projects have been LEED certified, in the US alone this translates into 900 million square meters (or 9.68 billion square feet) of LEED certified space. </p>
<p>LEED is <a href="http://islandpress.org/green-building-revolution">considered</a> the world’s most influential voluntary program for improved urban sustainability. The United Nations recently awarded it a <a href="http://www.usgbc.org/articles/usgbc-awarded-top-global-environmental-prize-entrepreneurial-vision-unep">top global environmental prize</a>.</p>
<h2>… but falls apart easily</h2>
<p>But what do these mind boggling numbers actually mean? The current built-up space in the United States is about 32 billion square meters (or 344 billion square feet.) Thus, at best 3% of built-up space in the United States is LEED certified. For having been in business for 20 years this is not an outstanding achievement. </p>
<p>But let’s take a closer look at what this 3% actually means. </p>
<p>The majority of LEED certificates are in the lower categories of Bronze and Silver. These are seen as <a href="http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/green-building-curmudgeon/how-cheat-leed-homes">not requiring much</a> from participants. Sometimes not more than what government regulation requires.</p>
<p><a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?id=qCH00bF-4MYC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">Only 6% of certificates</a> in the US are issued in the challenging Platinum category. These buildings move far beyond governmental regulation. But they represent a mere 6% of that meagre 3% coverage or 0.18% (1 in 550) of built up space in American cities. This does not constitute major impact. </p>
<h2>Voluntary regulation still a valuable part of urban governance</h2>
<p>Time and again I find marginal performance in the 60 voluntary programs that I have studied, including other certification schemes, revolving loan funds that provide funds for building retrofits, and office to office competitions that challenge office users to improve their environmental performance. Still, there are important roles for them. Three stand out.</p>
<p>First, they challenge companies to push the envelope and raise the bar of what is considered “normal” practice. LEED, for instance, <a href="http://www.mbdc.com/cradle-to-cradle/cradle-to-cradle-certified-program/certification-overview/">recognizes the use of highly innovative sustainable building materials</a> by those seeking LEED certification for their buildings. In doing so, voluntary programs stimulate innovation and the search for technological sollutions. </p>
<p>Second, they attract considerable media attention. Since 2002 the New York Times has reported 250 times on LEED. Such coverage spreads the word that highly sustainable and resilient buildings are neither more costly nor more difficult to build than conventional ones.</p>
<p>Finally, they help develop regulation that actually works. By test-driving an initiative for a number of years, governments and business can tweak and improve a voluntary program. LEED does result in Platinum certified buildings. This indicates that it is possible to meet this goal.</p>
<h2>Where next for voluntary programs?</h2>
<p>For voluntary programs to have a real impact, policymakers need to be brave and start mandating those that have proven to work. Only then will the small pockets of outstanding performance like LEED have the backing to have significant impact on cities and transform them into places that are able to combat climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeroen van der Heijden receives funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) and the Australian Research Council (ARC).</span></em></p>Voluntary programs are all the rage. From ratcheting up cybersecurity to fighting obesity, firms in the United States and elsewhere voluntarily make pledges to do better than governmental regulation. Firms…Jeroen van der Heijden, Assistant Professor of Environmental Governance, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/349152014-12-10T19:40:38Z2014-12-10T19:40:38ZCities could be the secret to fighting climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66823/original/image-20141210-6039-3nkmde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Gold Coast is one of Australia's climate "hot spots" — vulnerable to rising seas, storms and erosion. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/phalinn/7020661639">Phalinn Ooi/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s population could reach <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45165">almost 10 billion by 2050</a>. Most people will <a href="http://www.unicef.org/sowc2012/urbanmap/">live in cities</a>. </p>
<p>To accommodate an additional 3 billion people, we’ll need to build the equivalent of one new city, that can support one million people, every <a href="http://www.igbp.net/news/features/features/theriseandriseofurbanexpansion.5.705e080613685f74edb800014.html">five days between now and 2050</a>. </p>
<p>Currently cities consume <a href="http://unhabitat.org/urban-themes/climate-change/">78% of the world’s energy</a> and produce more than 60% of all carbon. Cities are major contributors to climate change, but they’re also highly vulnerable to the risks, especially those on the coast.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cccep.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/Releases/2014/New-report-finds-that-cities-could-cut-the-worlds-energy-related-carbon-emissions-by-34-at-no-net-cost.aspx">Recent research</a> by the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the University of Leeds and London School of Economics and Political Science found that cities could help cut global energy-related emissions by 34% at absolutely no net cost.</p>
<p>Cities could reduce their emissions through developments such as energy efficient appliances and fuel efficient transport. These developments have a payback period of just five years, after which the city would continue to see benefits at no extra cost.</p>
<p>So, how can we cut carbon emissions in cities, and make them more resilient to climate change?</p>
<h2>Australian cities at risk</h2>
<p>Cities may face the threat of sea level rise, more frequent extreme events such as heat waves, and the increased risk of bushfire. This has major implications for the location of new urban development, growth corridors and critical national infrastructure, particularly on the coast.</p>
<p>Over 90% of Australia’s population now live in urban areas and over 85% live on the coast. We’re a highly urbanised nation largely living near the water.</p>
<p>If you overlay where people live now, with areas that are predicted to be at risk from climate change, you can identify at-risk “hot spots”.</p>
<p>The Gold Coast is a good example. Here, a high-density, ageing population lives right on the coast. This leaves these communities open to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scrapping-sea-level-protection-puts-australian-homes-at-risk-21271">combined future risks</a> of sea level rise, increased coastal storm activity and coastal erosion.</p>
<p>The very real challenge now is to plan, design and construct cities that will minimise harmful emissions — and risks to future communities — but still keep them liveable. </p>
<h2>Falling behind</h2>
<p>Responding to this challenge will require a response from all levels of government and the corporate sector, including financial institutions. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, at the national level in Australia there has been active disengagement from climate change mitigation in our cities. The Major Cities Unit, which provided advice to the federal government on developing Australia’s 18 biggest cities, <a href="http://www.planning.org.au/news/major-cities-unit-closed">was abolished</a>. </p>
<p>The Federal Government has also <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/states-told-to-go-it-alone-on-public-transport-20131118-2xqpm.html">withdrawn investment in public transport</a>, caused <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/renewable-energy-target-in-limbo-as-clive-palmer-backs-labor-20141112-11ks6x.html">uncertainty on renewable energy targets</a> and abolished the price on carbon pollution. We also have no national strategy for adapting to climate change. </p>
<p>Last week, the Federal Government slashed funding to the United Nations Environment Program by <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-02/government-cuts-un-environment-group-funding-by-over-80pc/5932278">more than 80%</a>. This is another nail in the coffin for any progressive, united action on sustainable development in Australia.</p>
<p>In contrast, the European Commission has adopted an EU climate change adaptation strategy. They are now working directly with cities, and even provide positive <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2014031901_en.htm">financial incentives</a> for developing climate change adaptation plans. </p>
<p>The recent US-China joint initiative on climate change importantly included launching the <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change">Climate Smart Low Carbon Cities Initiative</a> providing a clear indication by global leaders of the important role and contribution of cities to solving the challenge of climate change. </p>
<h2>Some states take the lead</h2>
<p>At the state level however, there has been some leadership on decarbonising cities. </p>
<p>South Australia and the ACT are leading the way on the use of renewable energy. The ACT is on track to achieve its 90% renewable target by 2020. They are also the recipient of the <a href="http://www.banksiafdn.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=58:the-gold-award&catid=42:current-awards&Itemid=79">2014 Gold Banksia award</a> for developing a reverse solar auction process that is proving to be a significant attractor for investment in large scale solar <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/581601/Large_Solar_for_Canberra.pdf">in the ACT</a>. </p>
<p>South Australia’s climate change adaptation strategy focuses on water, natural resource management and importantly recognises the need to work in partnership with the <a href="https://www.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/10901/CC_framework_2012_web_V3.pdf.">City of Adelaide</a>. </p>
<p>At a more local level, there are also glimpses of hope. Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney are acting on climate change through local government strategies.</p>
<p>The City of Melbourne is pioneering programs such as the cool roofs program and the urban forestry initiative. These are part of a suite of strategies designed to “cool” the central city targeting “heat islands” in <a href="http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/Sustainability/AdaptingClimateChange/Pages/Heatwaves.aspx">future heatwaves</a>. </p>
<p>In Sydney there is a strong emphasis by local government on <a href="http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/vision/towards-2030/sustainability/carbon-reduction/carbon-neutral">active transport</a>, including walking and cycling. </p>
<p>Adelaide is working on <a href="http://www.adelaidecitycouncil.com/planning-development/sustainable-adelaide/climate-change/">smart-green buildings and infrastructure</a>, and to minimise the exposure of vulnerable groups to heat waves – the elderly, young children and those with existing health issues. </p>
<p>However, evidence shows that local action without support from the higher levels of government is very difficult. A good example comes with Victoria’s east west link road proposal or more investment in pubic transport. The role of the federal government in funding urban transport is playing a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/andrews-talks-up-possible-federal-infrastructure-funding-repeats-pledge-to-release-east-west-link-documents-20141207-12212g.html">significant role</a> in influencing the outcome for Melbourne’s transport network. </p>
<h2>The private sector role</h2>
<p>The corporate and financial sector will also be crucial for decarbonising cities. In fact, the private sector could be well ahead of the government here. </p>
<p>Westpac’s <a href="http://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/aw/sustainability-community/WestpacCCEPositionStatement2014.pdf">climate change plan</a> for 2014-2017 highlights three directions: building resilience, sustainable cities and investing for a 2C economy (an economy aiming to keep warming below 2C). This strategy could well be the basis for a national agenda on cities and sustainability. </p>
<p>Recent action by the Australian National University on divestment signals broader corporate sector change towards a <a href="http://vcdesk.anu.edu.au/2014/10/13/time-to-move-to-a-post-carbon-world/">low carbon future</a>.</p>
<p>Earlier this year in a <a href="http://c40-production-images.s3.amazonaws.com/researches/images/25_Advancing_Climate_Ambition.original.pdf?1412878084">report</a> to the UN Secretary General, the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy for Cities and Climate Change – in partnership with the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group – identified some key strategies cities could use to combat climate change. </p>
<p>These included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Deep building energy efficiency standards for new urban buildings</p></li>
<li><p>Building energy retrofits for existing urban buildings</p></li>
<li><p>Aggressive energy performance standards for urban building lighting and appliances; and</p></li>
<li><p>Mode shift and transit efficiency for urban residents (i.e. planning for compact urban communities that support greater public transport)</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Similarly, the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network is developing pathways for “<a href="http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deep-decarbonization-pathways/">deep decarbonisation by 2050</a>,” including for cities. This process feeds into the <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-2015-be-the-year-the-world-agrees-how-to-live-sustainably-29578">United Nations Development Goals 2015</a>. </p>
<p>These include <a href="http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/focussdgs.html">proposals</a> to “make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable”.</p>
<p>As US President Obama <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/15/remarks-president-obama-university-queensland">stated on his recent visit to Australia</a>: no nation is immune to the effects of climate change, and every nation has a responsibility to do its part to mitigate it. </p>
<p>Now is the time for Australia to embed climate change risk into planning at all levels of government, especially given the scale of urban development needed by mid-century. This will require strong connections between <a href="https://www.science.org.au/resources/cities-future-earth-third-australian-earth-system-outlook-conference-8-9-december-2014-shi">climate scientists and planners</a>. </p>
<p>In a tight budget context, the savings in adaptation could more than pay in the long term for the transformation to a low carbon and resilient urban future. </p>
<p><em>This article was based on a talk presented at the Cities in Future Earth Conference hosted by the Australian Academy of Science. Watch Barbara Norma’s presentation <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEfaR0v8D08&index=8&list=PL9DfJTxCPaXI8V8StedtC368o6TgDNeGj">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Norman recently received funding from the Bushfire CRC, the National Climate Change Adaptation Flagship (NCCARF), the University of Melbourne, the ACT Government and the Murray Darling Basin CRN. She is affiliated with the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (Aust), the ACT Government as Deputy Chair of the ACT RDA and Canberra Urban and Regional Futures (Director). She was a contributing author to the IPCC5 WG2 report. Barbara Norman is former National President and Life Fellow of the Planning Institute of Australia and an Hon Life Fellow of the Royal Town Planning Institute (UK). She is a long term member of the Australian Labor Party. </span></em></p>The world’s population could reach almost 10 billion by 2050. Most people will live in cities. To accommodate an additional 3 billion people, we’ll need to build the equivalent of one new city, that can…Barbara Norman, Foundation Chair, Urban and Regional Planning, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/291882014-11-25T12:03:31Z2014-11-25T12:03:31ZPast visions of future cities were monstrous, but now we imagine a brighter tomorrow<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65451/original/image-20141125-2362-1h3qjuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The extreme future city.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">diversepixel</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>My future city contains flying cars, shimmering architecture and vertical parks. Yours is probably different, but whether you’ve thought about it or not you’ll definitely have some conception, some image. There have always been future cities – architects, writers and filmmakers have long dreamt up fantastic visions of them. Some of these have come to fruition, some are just dusty ideas that still inspire, or are forgotten. But visions of tomorrow’s cities populate the past, as well as the present.</p>
<p>Almost 20 years ago, the celebrated prophet of doom and disorder JG Ballard wrote about the future of the city in his novel Cocaine Nights:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Townscapes are changing. The open-plan city belongs in the past — no more ramblas, no more pedestrian precincts, no more left banks and Latin quarters. We’re moving into the age of security grilles and defensible space. As for living, our surveillance cameras can do that for us. People are locking their doors and switching off their nervous systems. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is something we are now seeing in reality as public space becomes ever more commercial, ever more privatised. Look at <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2008/mar/29/communities">Liverpool ONE</a> or the gated communities of <a href="http://www.newcaledonianwharf.co.uk/">New Caledonian Wharf</a>, Docklands or Bow Quarter in East London. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65454/original/image-20141125-2374-1yv7wb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65454/original/image-20141125-2374-1yv7wb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65454/original/image-20141125-2374-1yv7wb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65454/original/image-20141125-2374-1yv7wb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65454/original/image-20141125-2374-1yv7wb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65454/original/image-20141125-2374-1yv7wb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65454/original/image-20141125-2374-1yv7wb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liverpool ONE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/iancarroll/6190228716">iancarroll</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it’s not all quite so bleak out there. We may be moving toward a future more positive in outlook, albeit with echoes of the nightmarish cities we thought up in the past.</p>
<h2>Future visions</h2>
<p>We’ve been dreaming up visions of future cities as long as the city has existed. A recent government report, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-cities-a-visual-history-of-the-future">A Visual History of the Future</a>, examines what such visions sought to communicate and why. Many of these visualisations were never built and remained imaginary – this does not mean they are unworthy of attention. Speculative futures and the technologies projected within them are important. They reveal a lot about how we expect to progress.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65456/original/image-20141125-2371-1uli1sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=829&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ‘Garden Cities of To-morrow’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ebenezer Howard</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Let’s take the legacy of Ebenezer Howard’s Garden City vision, first published in 1898. It has been both celebrated and derided. Its combination of bucolic landscaping and polycentric planning captures a very British attitude toward the future. The agenda of much post-war planning in the UK was suburban and provincial. With Britain announcing its intention to build a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/16/george-osborne-garden-city-ebbsfleet-budget">new garden city by the Thames Estuary at Ebbsfleet</a>, we appear to be regurgitating ideas from over a century ago. </p>
<p>Another future city of around a century ago is that of Fritz Lang’s <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0017136/">Metropolis</a> (1927), which wasn’t quite so idyllic. Inspired by the Futurist Italian architect Antonio Sant'Elia this rapidly industrialised monster city has also been a touchstone for many subsequent ideas for future cities. Metropolis is an automated system of control and hierarchy, with explicit social class division. Wealthy industrialists have privileged lifestyles in high-rise towers whilst the lower class workers live underground.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ObM0drwTshA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The fears and desires borne by industrialisation were also the inspiration behind Aldous Huxley’s 1932 novel <a href="http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=3zl4oJMUskoC&">Brave New World</a> where years are measured “After Ford” in tribute to the influential sponsor of assembly line mass production. Interestingly, this supposedly far future dystopia set in London of AD 2540 (632 A.F.) was heavily influenced by Huxley’s visit to the ICI plant in Billingham, Stockton-on-Tees.</p>
<p>These themes were taken even further in Ridley Scott’s <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083658/">Blade Runner</a>, 1982, where class division is between human and non-human. The addition of flying cars, a familiar and recurrent staple of future city visions, accentuates the dense verticality of a Los Angeles reimagined for the 21st century. The dark, brooding and claustrophobic atmosphere of the city in the film proved popular with those creating near-future scenarios and reflected concerns about cities toward the end of the 20th century. It was reinterpreted in numerous subsequent films including Tim Burton’s <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096895/">Batman</a>, 1989, and Mamoru Oshii’s <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0113568/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1">Ghost in the Shell</a>, 1996. </p>
<p>Spanning across the latter half of the last century we have the myriad dystopias given by Ballard. Cities of the future in his work were above all dysfunctional, often due to environmental and technological apocalypses. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65458/original/image-20141125-2362-xtz3ns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Frank Lloyd Wright, Broadacre City Project, 1934–35.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MoMA | Avery Architectural & Fine Arts Library, Columbia University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Architectural approaches</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=2413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=2413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=2413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=3032&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=3032&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65459/original/image-20141125-2386-1h916rv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=3032&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frank Lloyd Wright, Mile High, Chicago. 1956.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">MoMA | Avery Architectural & Fine Arts Library, Columbia University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And of course future cities are not the sole domain of fiction. 2014’s retrospective at MoMA, New York, <a href="http://www.moma.org/visit/calendar/exhibitions/1448">Frank Lloyd Wright and the City: Density vs. Dispersal</a> explored Wright’s unease about the growing American city in the 1920s and 1930s. This was explicit in his work – simultaneously focusing on radical new forms for the skyscraper and his seminal masterplan for the urbanisation of the American landscape, <a href="http://www.mediaarchitecture.at/architekturtheorie/broadacre_city/2011_broadacre_city_en.shtml">Broadacre City</a>. While seemingly more humane than Ballard’s hellish visions, the reality of such megalomania and consumer-driven design would arguably have been just as unpalatable if built.</p>
<p>So which future is here? Encouragingly, nearly a century on it appears we are shifting toward a more people-based approach. The recurrence and growth of more socially engaged future city visions in the early 21st century is notable. The reemergence of street-level urbanism, which favours the pedestrian and active public realm in the manner of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/26/books/26jacobs.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0">Jane Jacobs</a>, reflects our increasing environmental concerns coupled with technological possibilities. Further evidence also supports our growing worries about the longevity of the city, adaptability to climate change, resource management and resilience of changing social dynamics and populations. </p>
<p>Past visions of future cities have been outlandish, they have been dark and dismal, they have also been clairvoyant. They embody a range of ideas of the cities we have and have had. The power of these images demonstrates deep cultural resonances from the time they were produced. </p>
<p>Future cities, even in fiction, reveal an enormous amount about how a society views itself. So after more than 100 years of dystopian cities of the future it is positive to see that many artists, architects and designers have remembered that perhaps the most important element of cities are their people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29188/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Nick Dunn was commissioned by the UK Government Office for Science to write a report on the visualisation of future cities as part of their Foresight: Future of Cities programme.</span></em></p>My future city contains flying cars, shimmering architecture and vertical parks. Yours is probably different, but whether you’ve thought about it or not you’ll definitely have some conception, some image…Nick Dunn, Professor of Urban Design, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/255252014-04-17T05:16:28Z2014-04-17T05:16:28ZTen themes that will help build cities designed for people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46581/original/xfgb55p6-1397662341.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Our cities are growing; we must rise to the challenge.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/erwin_soo/8463911183/">Erwin Soo</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ten themes shape the dilemmas, challenges and opportunities for the 21st-century city. Each relates to how we live and shape our places. </p>
<p>The tradition of urban living, of urbanity, focuses both on the rights of its inhabitants to the city, and the responsibility they bear for the city. Urbanity in this sense first arose in the Italian city states, notably during the Renaissance. It marked the move towards meritocracy, providing a space for free thinking and freeing individuals from the yoke of feudalism. The German phrase <a href="http://jcc.sagepub.com/content/43/1/38.abstract">Stadtluft macht frei</a> (“city air makes you free”) encapsulates this idea. But over time the notion of urbanity degraded into the idea of the <em>flâneur,</em> someone who watches urban life go by without committing to the needs of the collective whole.</p>
<p>Together, ten interlinked concepts frame our modern idea of <a href="http://charleslandry.com/themes/civic-urbanity/">civic urbanity</a>, and can be used to reshape how we see and shape cities for the future. Using these we can seek to realign individual self-interest within a collective consciousness that is focused more on our joint responsibilities for our city, or indeed our world.</p>
<p>The starting point is integrated and connected thinking. Only then can we discern the links and inter-dependencies in the city dynamic, and how to make the most of their potential. This requires a changed mindset and is difficult to prescribe. Even so, governments and decision-makers have increasingly realised the shortcomings of strict departmentalism and <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/brentgleeson/2013/10/02/the-silo-mentality-how-to-break-down-the-barriers/">silo thinking</a> that stymie the creative solutions required.</p>
<p>There is a demand for a reinvigorated public and <a href="http://onthecommons.org/">shared commons</a> to stand against, but also to complement, an increasingly self-centred public culture. It should foster shared spaces, from parks to public libraries, that are free, non-commercial, and public, where citizens can express themselves in creative ways. With this ethos we can retrofit our cities with conviviality and the habits of solidarity, in order to nurture our capacity to build communities.</p>
<p>Planners these days discuss sustainability and the effects of climate change, and there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-century-of-the-sustainable-city-15263">many good initiatives worldwide</a>. Yet few city planners make the hard choices to prevent the customary configurations of cities or developments that continue to make them unsustainable. Embedding a sense of eco-awareness in a city means building introducing zero-waste, cyclical economies and smart technologies. This can be a lever for economic development towards a clean, lean, green industrial revolution.</p>
<p>We must avoid <a href="http://heapro.oxfordjournals.org/content/24/suppl_1/i91.full">unhealthy urban planning</a> – rigid land-use zoning that prevents the sort of mixed-use developments that blend living, working, retail and entertainment, big initiatives that fail to provide diversity and variety, or the tendency to think that, through economies of scale, only big can be efficient. And believing in the inevitability of the car leads to cities designed for vehicles, not people. Mixed uses are coming back forcefully as living, working and playing in the same place becomes the norm again. Seamless transport connectivity, or walkable cities, will be key.</p>
<p>Many cities are ethnic and cultural melting pots, boosting economic growth long-term – but absorbing differences will continue to create stresses. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/education/2012/oct/15/hirsch-core-knowledge-curriculum-review">Cultural literacy</a>, an understanding of others and focusing on what we share, rather than what divides us, will be key – as will avoiding housing ghettos and gated communities. But market pressures will continue to push cities in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>Magnetic cities, those that everyone wants to move to, are increasingly unequal. The divide between rich and poor grows, creating tension, resentment, unfulfilled potential – and even violence. Any city where haves and have-nots are strictly divided has failed to harness the collective imagination, energy and intelligence of its citizens. Clever cities will <a href="http://www.oecd.org/forum/issues/promoting-inclusive-growth.htm">demand greater equality and inclusiveness</a>, because it makes social and economic sense.</p>
<p>The demographic time-bomb hangs over us all, but in cities especially there will be pressure to isolate the ageing population into “retirement zones” with housing adapted to their needs. More innovative cities will seek to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/blog/urban-environments-ageing-population-design">incorporate an inter-generational perspective</a> to their planning and develop adaptable housing that can be transformed as its inhabitants age.</p>
<p>The aesthetic imperative reminds us that the city is an immersive experience that communicates through its structures, its natural forms, its activities, and atmosphere. The way a city looks and feels, its aesthetics, create an emotional response and a psychological impact. Old-fashioned words like beauty and ugliness will – should – re-enter the planning debate.</p>
<p>The escalating complexities that cities face cannot be solved by a “business-as-usual” approach. Imagination and creativity are required to solve intractable urban problems of the future and create new and interesting opportunities. Unleashing the creativity of the city, its organisations and citizens is an empowering process, harnessing potential and is a new form of capital and currency.</p>
<p>This reminds us: technology has moved in gigantic leaps, but our forms of representative democracy, organisation and management have remained largely the same for hundreds of years. This is why civic engagement has atrophied. Future cities will need to reignite the civic spirit by exploring new ways of communicating with citizens, rethinking regulations and incentives and empowering civil servants. This requires a new type of administration, a <a href="http://charleslandry.com/themes/creative-bureaucracy/">creative bureaucracy</a>, radically different from the target-driven, efficiency and effectiveness-focused model. Being resourceful, strategically agile, responsive and imaginative will lie at its core.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25525/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Landry is founder and director of the creative city consultancy, Comedia.
For more information, see <a href="http://www.charleslandry.com">www.charleslandry.com</a></span></em></p>Ten themes shape the dilemmas, challenges and opportunities for the 21st-century city. Each relates to how we live and shape our places. The tradition of urban living, of urbanity, focuses both on the…Charles Landry, Professor of Urban Creative Design, Beijing DeTao Masters AcademyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/238552014-03-11T06:17:44Z2014-03-11T06:17:44ZIs anyone asking people what they want from the smart cities of the future?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43500/original/dx9tbkvh-1394466468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C124%2C1000%2C679&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Masdar City in Abu Dhabi. Not everyone's cup of tea.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/eager/5122241191/sizes/l/">準建築人手札網站 Forgemind ArchiMedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Future cities, where infrastructure adapts to our needs, offer are an enticing prospect. But who is in the driving seat as these urban developments crop up around the world? We need to make sure that the people who will actually live in these cities benefit.</p>
<p>I recently attended a government meeting about future cities and found that all the discussion related to branding, bio-tech innovation, hi-tech transport infrastructure and opportunities for universities. I pointed out that at least half the population don’t engage with such things directly, if at all. Most everyday people are more concerned with how to get by and even how to survive in an increasingly hostile city. One civil servant replied “oh you mean the dark underbelly …”. This, it seems to me, is exactly how elevated mandarins in London see normal people who live in inner city communities.</p>
<p>Over the past decade we’ve watched young people become increasingly immersed in social media. But while these technologies promise to allow us to connect with more people without geographical boundaries, the reality could be more like a kind of digital enslavement. So as we develop our cities of the future, we need to think about who makes the decisions. </p>
<p>There are a number of different future city visions being developed around the world at the moment. Some are smart cities, in which the internet of things allows objects to think smart. Others seek to put sustainability at their heart, with electric cars and transport systems. </p>
<p>The trouble is, large companies such as <a href="http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/uk/en/smarter_cities/perspectives/index.html">IBM</a>, Samsung, <a href="http://www.cisco.com/web/strategy/smart_connected_communities.html">Cisco</a> and Intel are involved in and have much to gain from the development of future cities. It is companies like these that provide the connectivity needed to make traffic lights talk to each other and the hardware that makes our future services run with precision. </p>
<p>It’s not clear at the moment whether future cities are strategic experiments for these companies or if they are genuinely catalysing the regeneration of inner cities. </p>
<p>To investigate some of these visions, I went to MIT in Boston for three months last year. The aim was to find out how people would get their goods and services in the <a href="http://sustainablesocietynetwork.net/">city of the future</a> and how we we get everyone to engage with city plans.</p>
<p>We decided to test out some ideas with the inner city communities of Boston in a series of workshops. We essentially combined science fact and science fiction by presenting them with a Boston set in 2037 based on current technological trends projected forward through several imagined scenarios. </p>
<p>We combined the traditional science fiction ideas of utopia and dystopia with realistic technological trends such as artificial intelligence, 3D printing and big data and asked Bostonians to come up with fictional stories about their life in these environments.</p>
<h2>Where can I walk my hologram dog?</h2>
<p>Participants talked through imaginary scenarios ranging from the ordinary to the extraordinary. They could control home appliances such as heating using smartphones or saw a future in which the blind were assisted by holographic guide dogs. You could walk your hologram dog in those city urban spaces of ubiquitous public technology. We explored together the possible uses of public technologies in this, bearing in mind the various divides that exist among different users of technology. Social activities are among the most important aspects of urban life that need to be supported through the introduction of new technology and services. In another story, an elderly female character with dementia navigated various everyday situations with the help of her intelligent wrist computer. </p>
<p>Although participants felt positive about future technology, the scenarios they imagined involved using it as an accessory to city living. They were more pessimistic about the ability of technology to make major changes to their lives either socially and economically or for it to regenerate the infrastructure and economy of inner-city areas of Boston. Many cited Bowdoin-Geneva as an example. The Boston Globe had recently run a well publicised <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/specials/68blocks">68 Blocks</a> social experiment designed to investigate the reasons for this neighbourhood’s long history of high crime and shootings. It opened up nothing more than a conversation. </p>
<p>Workshop participants felt smart cities were rather utopian concepts growing from a vision put forward by one group of businesses. There was general agreement that there were often many visions for the city, but “at the moment it’s the rich and powerful who determine that future vision”.</p>
<p>Many were troubled by the notion that people would live in a city purely because of its technology capabilities and thought there were lots of other important social and cultural reasons influencing people’s decisions to live or work somewhere. Just because these urban centres could offer us new ways of living in the future does not negate the importance of the natural environment, history and legacy.</p>
<p>The need to engage young people in discussions about the cities of the future was another recurring theme. Problems of engaging young people in future city planning were also emphasised. </p>
<p>Brasilla was cited as a failed future city vision and others questioned the appeal of living somewhere like <a href="http://masdarcity.ae/en/">Masdar City</a>, the hi-tech cluster under development in Abu Dabi, which is aimed very much at business and innovation rather than the needs of the average person. Increased segregation and welfare costs were raised as potential side effects of the widened societal gaps that could occur if smart cities became a reality. </p>
<p>The people I worked with generally enjoyed living in Boston and many had migrated there from other cities or countries. It was seen as a friendly and progressive town with a promising future ahead of it. A key message was that people needed to start living smarter, cleaner and more efficiently now if their grandchildren were to inherit a comparable or better Boston in 2037. None of the participants wanted a bland Masdar-type of city. They all wanted something similar to what they have now but with eco-friendly modifications such as better provision for cyclists and a looped rail network like those found in London and Paris. </p>
<p>Cities are complex entities, like cells. They are made up of technical, social and physical systems that interact like a human body or an ecosystem. If something goes wrong with such a complex entity, it takes a long time to cure.</p>
<p>The growth of cities and urban areas in the 21st century is putting pressure on living standards, which poses serious challenges for us all. Growth is contributing not only to a crushing cycle of poverty but also crippling social problems, such as drug abuse and crime. Cities are struggling to establish a sustainable economic base and with it employment opportunities, wealth creation, role models and improved local infrastructure.</p>
<p>Ideally a future city will have inner city areas that are sustainably created through private, for profit initiatives, and investment based on genuine competitive advantage – not through artificial inducements, charity or government mandates.</p>
<p>The people living in cities far outnumber the people making decisions about what those cities should look like in the future. They are disconnected from the plans being made by companies and even governments on their behalf. We need to start working with everyday citizens to find the right questions and then work with them towards developing solutions to the problems they raise. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23855/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Graham receives funding from the EPSRC Digital Economy NEMODE and Sustainable Societies Initiatives. They funded this placement to Boston. </span></em></p>Future cities, where infrastructure adapts to our needs, offer are an enticing prospect. But who is in the driving seat as these urban developments crop up around the world? We need to make sure that the…Gary Graham, Lecturer in Operations Management, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.