tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/global-warming-2768/articlesGlobal warming – The Conversation2024-03-28T20:30:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223592024-03-28T20:30:35Z2024-03-28T20:30:35ZNew electrochemical technology could de-acidify the oceans – and even remove carbon dioxide in the process<p>In the effort to combat the catastrophic impacts of global warming, we must accelerate carbon emissions reduction efforts and rapidly scale strategies to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and the oceans. The technologies for reducing our carbon emissions are mature; those for removing carbon from the environment are not, and need robust support from governments and the private sector. </p>
<p>Only 45 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere; the remainder is absorbed through two cycles: 1) <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle">the biological carbon cycle</a> stores CO2 in plant matter and soils, and 2) the aqueous carbon cycle absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere into the oceans. Each of these cycles accounts for 25 per cent and 30 per cent of emitted CO2, respectively.</p>
<p>CO2 that dissolves in the oceans reacts to form chemicals that <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification">increase the acidity of the oceans</a>. The dissolution of minerals from rocks along coastlines act to counterbalance this acidity, in a process called geological weathering, but the extreme increase in the rate and volume of CO2 emissions, especially over the last 60 years, has far exceeded the rate of geological weathering, leading to a 30 per cent increase in ocean acidity. </p>
<p>As the oceans acidify, millions of marine species and whole ecosystems — especially coral reefs — will be unable to adapt. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-failed-to-address-ocean-acidification-but-the-law-of-the-seas-means-states-must-protect-the-worlds-oceans-171949">COP26 failed to address ocean acidification, but the law of the seas means states must protect the world's oceans</a>
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<p>We are overwhelming the Earth’s natural re-balancing systems and harming its ecosystems in the process. Our recent work at McMaster University and the University of Toronto, supported by the Carbon to Sea Initiative, has attempted to address these challenges.</p>
<h2>The challenge ahead</h2>
<p>The good news is it is possible to re-balance the pH of the oceans using a process called ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE). What’s more, this rebalancing will also encourage additional CO2 to be absorbed from the atmosphere. By carefully and continually restoring the ocean’s alkalinity, ocean acidification and excess atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be tackled simultaneously.</p>
<p>The most obvious approach would be to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1338556">add finely ground alkali minerals into the ocean</a> to directly lower the acidity of the water. However, the massive scale at which these processes would have to be enacted is staggering.</p>
<p>For example, we estimate that the equivalent mass of roughly eight thousand Empire State buildings worth of alkaline substance would need to be added into the oceans each year starting by mid-century to meet IPCC emissions targets. Clearly, this technique cannot be the sole solution.</p>
<p>We believe an electrochemical approach operated on decarbonized energy is one of the best ways to combat ocean acidification. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/C2EE03393C">Using a process called bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BMED)</a>, the acidity of seawater is removed directly without the addition of other substances. This technology only requires seawater, electricity and specialized membranes. </p>
<p>The simplicity and modularity inherent to the BMED technology allows a flexible, scalable and potentially cost-effective method of carbon dioxide removal. </p>
<h2>Building at scale</h2>
<p>In 2015 — with a team of researchers at the Palo Alto Research Center and X Development — we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2017.10.007">built and tested</a> a small-scale BMED system. This system <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.02.020">performed well</a> and shows great promise when coupled with existing facilities such as desalination plants. </p>
<p>We identified its primary technological limitations, but in 2015-2017, carbon credits and incentives for climate change technologies were insufficient and the project was shelved. Now the economic and physical climate has changed. </p>
<p>On the economic front, both the tax credits provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States as well as the steadily <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/federal-carbon-pollution-pricing-benchmark.html">rising revenue-neutral carbon tax in Canada</a> are strengthening the economic viability of carbon dioxide reduction technologies. Further, the recent extreme climatic events in the past year from massive wildfires in Canada, to the hottest months on record, to the warmest sea temperatures ever measured, are shocking people into the glaring realities of climate change and increasing the demand for real solutions. BMED technology is one of these solutions. </p>
<p>BMED technology is limited in part by the specialized membranes that are commercially available. What’s more, these membranes account for a significant portion (around 30 per cent) of the capital cost and have short lifetimes as they are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D3EE01606D">susceptible to degradation</a>. </p>
<p>Our work aims to develop scalable, ultra-thin membranes for use in a modified BMED process, while also identifying efficient operational conditions, optimal industrial couplings, and ideal global locations to cost-effectively implement this OAE technology around the world. </p>
<p>The ultra-thin membranes will extract acidity more efficiently than existing commercial membranes, while their manufacturing technique and optimal usage will dramatically decrease their production and operational costs. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s44286-023-00009-x">Developing cost-effective BMED</a> systems will open a pathway to economically viable OAE. </p>
<h2>Cautious optimism</h2>
<p>Recently, several start-ups have been formed — such as <a href="https://www.ebbcarbon.com/">Ebb Carbon</a>, <a href="https://www.seao2.nl/">SeaO2</a> and <a href="https://www.vesta.earth/">Vesta</a> — that target ocean carbon dioxide removal through OAE. </p>
<p>We encourage open communication about the progress and challenges facing OAE with the public, research institutions, governments and the private sector to accelerate solutions to OAE’s challenges. </p>
<p>In particular, we must assess the impact of re-adjusting seawater alkalinity on marine ecosystems while, at the same time, also developing and implementing trusted systems to measure, report and verify the net amount of acidity and carbon removed. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-or-not-it-is-our-current-epoch-that-we-should-be-fighting-for-225428">Anthropocene or not, it is our current epoch that we should be fighting for</a>
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<p>Alongside this, we must also identify optimal large-scale deployment locations where OAE can be safely and effectively implemented. </p>
<p>These considerations are being researched by various groups funded by the Carbon to Sea Initiative, but much more support is needed to rapidly vet and scale this technology. </p>
<p>To overcome the technological challenges and environmental uncertainties, government, industrial, non-profit and venture capital support must be massively scaled and devoted to carefully and responsibly validating the large-scale implementation of OAE technologies around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles-Francois de Lannoy receives funding from Carbon to Sea, NSERC, OCI, Ontario Ministry of Colleges and Universities ERA, MITACS, Trojan Technologies, Aria Filtra, ESI Informatics, the ELAP Fellowship, Imperial, and McMaster University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bassel A. Abdelkader receives funding from Carbon to Sea. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jocelyn Riet receives funding from Carbon to Sea. </span></em></p>Global warming is making the oceans more acidic. Our work aims to design realistic systems to reduce this acidity, and remove carbon from the atmosphere in the process.Charles-Francois de Lannoy, Associate Professor, Chemical Engineering, McMaster UniversityBassel A. Abdelkader, Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Chemical Engineering, McMaster UniversityJocelyn Riet, Ph.D. Candidate in Chemical Engineering, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254282024-03-26T21:00:42Z2024-03-26T21:00:42ZAnthropocene or not, it is our current epoch that we should be fighting for<p>Has the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Holocene-Epoch">Holocene epoch of the past 11,700 years</a> been supplanted by the <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/anthropocene/">proposed Anthropocene epoch</a> of today? Although it’s broadly accepted that planetary systems have changed as a result of human influence, a panel of experts at the International Union of Geological Sciences answered a firm “no” when they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00868-1">recently voted down recognizing the start of the new epoch</a>. </p>
<p>Does this mean that humans haven’t actually changed the planet? <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anthropocene-is-not-an-epoch-but-the-age-of-humans-is-most-definitely-underway-224495">Not at all</a> and while we may not officially be in a geological Anthropocene, the term will likely persist in reference to human environmental interference in years to come. As such, the wake of this vote is perhaps the best moment to consider a more essential question: what will we do next? </p>
<p>Can we take the official rejection on an Anthropocene epoch as an implicit vote of confidence in our ability to return the planet to Holocene-like conditions? Is climate change reversible?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/crawford-lake-what-the-past-can-teach-us-about-urban-living-today-209764">Crawford Lake: What the past can teach us about urban living today</a>
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<p>As a <a href="https://www.iisd.org/ela/blog/back-to-basics-what-is-a-limnologist/">limnologist</a>, I can share insights from long-term research on lakes. And as one Canadian lake, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-anthropocene-crawford-lake/">Crawford Lake, had been selected as the candidate “golden spike”</a> of the Anthropocene epoch, <a href="https://www.tvo.org/video/hope-in-the-age-of-climate-anxiety">what lakes tell us of human impacts, and recoveries from those impacts, may be worth considering</a>.</p>
<h2>Atomic age?</h2>
<p>There are elements of our future which cannot be undone. Although we can reduce future extinction rates, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2019.07.040">there is no coming back for the countless species that have disappeared due to human actions</a>. Likewise, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi5502">global human-caused redistribution of species is a permanent symptom of (and evidence for) the Anthropocene</a>. On the other hand, some measures of the Anthropocene seem inherently more ephemeral. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white image of a mushroom cloud." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=812&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1021&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1021&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584464/original/file-20240326-18-rgxkh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1021&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An image from the Trinity test at Los Alamos, the first nuclear explosion in human history. The onset of atmospheric nuclear explosions has often been cited as the critical starting moment in the Anthropocene epoch.</span>
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<p>The residues of widespread nuclear weapons testing through the 1950s into the 1960s have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196221149281">generally been seen as a particularly strong indicator of the Anthropocene</a>. Scientists find evidence of this in lakes around the world in the form of trace amounts of Plutonium and Cesium in the sediments deposited during this period. </p>
<p>A rapid drop in atmospheric bomb testing in 1963 — upon the signing of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty — has created a unique <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0096340215581357">“bomb pulse” which represents a global, unequivocally human, fingerprint</a>. The bomb pulse was considered evidence for a 1950 Anthropocene epoch start date and was likely the most critical factor in defining the Anthropocene. </p>
<p>However, which global human signal is more important for us to consider today: the fact that humans created and tested nuclear weapons, or that this was just a “pulse” as nuclear-armed states came together globally to change behaviour?</p>
<h2>Tipping points</h2>
<p>The most useful insights from lakes may come from how they experience <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0797-2">tipping point dynamics</a>, particularly as it relates to <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/eutrophication-causes-consequences-and-controls-in-aquatic-102364466/">eutrophication</a> (the excess growth of plants and algae in a body of water). </p>
<p>The widespread synthesis and application of fertilizers has caused eutrophication on a massive scale and has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1373">taken a huge toll around the globe, particularly on aquatic ecosystems</a>. Past a critical tipping point, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-5347(93)90254-M">eutrophication can fundamentally alter lakes</a>, replacing clear waters with turbid (cloudy), algae-dominated conditions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix106">and impaired ecosystem functions and services</a>. </p>
<p>When seen in this light, it becomes clear that eutrophication is <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00200">a defining characteristic of the Anthropocene</a>. However, it is a characteristic that can be reversed — although restoration is not always straightforward. </p>
<p>Lakes, along with other ecosystems that feature tipping point dynamics, can be hard to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.35.021103.105711">flip back once they’ve passed the critical turbidity threshold</a>. Reducing the loading of nutrients into waterways can effectively improve water quality and there is evidence these efforts are effective. However, it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-024-05478-6">might take decades to re-establish desirable conditions in impacted systems</a>. </p>
<p>In some cases, it might take over a century, or even millennia, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0238-x">for watersheds to recover from human nutrient pollution</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A brief explanation of the process of eutrophication produced by Atlas Pro.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Although the process of full recovery may sometimes be lengthy (at least in human, not geological, timescales), <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13701">rapid partial recoveries are possible</a>, as is the potential for <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.00194">intermediate lake conditions that fall outside of a simplified clear or turbid binary</a>. </p>
<p>Understanding the role of tipping point dynamics in lakes can provide a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/723892">useful framework for management and restoration strategies</a>, and at least bring us back to something perhaps similar to what was originally lost.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/weaving-indigenous-and-western-ways-of-knowing-can-help-canada-achieve-its-biodiversity-goals-201063">Essential Indigenous knowledge</a> — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13882">alongside natural history museums around the world</a> — can play a key role in retaining knowledge of how things were to help understand how our systems are changing, and what target conditions we might aim for in the near future.</p>
<h2>All is not lost</h2>
<p>This brings us back to our original question. To what degree is climate change reversible? Most world economies have <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">committed to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions</a>. To date, 2023 featured the highest global carbon dioxide emissions yet, but these emissions likely would have been lower than those in 2022 if not for <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023">droughts dampening hydroelectricity generation</a>. </p>
<p>To return to and stabilize ourselves within a desired Holocene-like climatic range, we will not only need to achieve net zero, but establish regenerative socio-economic systems that reduce atmospheric GHG concentrations in a sustainably just manner. </p>
<p>However, timing is crucial, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0">as globally connected tipping points</a> may <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01333-w">accelerate the natural release of GHGs from oceans</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay1052">on land</a> and in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2795">inland waters</a>. </p>
<p>Put simply, while humans absolutely can stop burning fossil fuels, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744">we cannot guarantee how quickly our planet will cool</a>. Moreover, we cannot even guarantee that GHGs will decline with these actions — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950">particularly once our warming exceeds 1.5 C</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A discussion on climate tipping points produced by the New York Times.</span></figcaption>
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<p>If there is anything to glean from the study of lakes, it might be that remediation is most effective before critical tipping points have been crossed. However, even beyond such tipping points, active remediation efforts are always worthwhile, if not outright necessary. </p>
<p>Systems governed by tipping point dynamics might not automatically bounce back, but they can substantially improve in the short term. Indeed, many affected systems can likely even eventually recover fully over decades to centuries if the appropriate rapid actions are taken.</p>
<p>Although none of this changes the recent outcome of the Anthropocene epoch being voted down, it may weigh on how we interpret that decision. The vote in no way implies that our species has not changed the world dramatically. Rather, it can remind us that the epoch we’re in, although perhaps unrecognizable, is not a lost one, and that we should muster all available resources and knowledge to return our planet to Holocene-like conditions as much as possible.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-stay-hopeful-in-a-world-seemingly-beyond-saving-210415">How to stay hopeful in a world seemingly beyond saving</a>
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<p>The challenge lying ahead of us will be to work actively to ensure that our planet remains welcoming, for not just humans but all biodiversity. It is time we abandon any sense of defeatism that might be associated with the Anthropocene and focus on what really matters: saving this epoch before it is too late.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Soren Brothers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The recent rejection of the start of the Anthropocene epoch reminds us of the paramount importance of preserving what remains of our current Holocene.Soren Brothers, Allan and Helaine Shiff Curator of Climate Change, Royal Ontario Museum and Assistant Professor, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244482024-03-21T20:52:25Z2024-03-21T20:52:25ZThe stakes could not be higher as Canada sets its 2035 emissions target<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583506/original/file-20240321-30-o7bta5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C0%2C5233%2C3478&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Canadian government is currently running a public consultation to help inform its 2035 emissions reductions targets.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Government of Canada is in the midst of a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2024/02/government-of-canada-launches-public-engagement-on-the-2035-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target.html">public engagement on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target</a>. </p>
<p>The timeline is short, and the stakes could not be higher. </p>
<p>According to Section 7 of the <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-19.3/fulltext.html">Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act</a> (Net-Zero Act), the 2035 milestone must be set by December 2024, <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">in time to be formally announced to other Paris Agreement members in 2025</a>. </p>
<p>The risks of delaying decisive action are huge, with the European Union’s climate change service recently warning that global average temperatures have now reached <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310">1.52 C of warming</a>.</p>
<h2>Why 1.5 C matters</h2>
<p>Section 8 of the Net-Zero Act requires the 2035 target to take into account the best scientific information available, Canada’s international commitments, Indigenous knowledge, and the recommendations of the <a href="https://www.nzab2050.ca/">Net-Zero Advisory Body</a>. </p>
<p>The scientific community is resolute that there are “<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">robust differences</a>” between <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal/">global warming of 1.5 C and 2 C</a>, including increases in hot extremes and heavy precipitation. <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/eccc/en4/En4-544-2023-eng.pdf">For Canadians</a>, extreme heat has been the deadliest impact so far, with at least 619 deaths caused by the 2021 heat dome alone. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://canadianclimat.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Executive-summary-damage-control.pdf">recent report</a> found that “in 2025, Canada will experience $25 billion in losses relative to a stable-climate scenario, which is equal to 50 per cent of projected 2025 GDP growth.” Climate change related damages could reach between $78 and $101 billion annually by mid-century if adequate action is not taken. </p>
<p>Senior climate scientist at the University of the Bahamas Adelle Thomas notes that for island states and least-developed countries <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/meeting-the-1-5-c-climate-goal-will-save-millions-of-people-and-its-still-feasible/">“‘one-point-five to stay alive’ is reality, it’s not a slogan.”</a> Here and abroad, equity-seeking groups are those worst impacted.</p>
<h2>Why participate?</h2>
<p>The federal government’s <a href="https://canada-2035-target.ethelo.net/page/how-to-participate">public engagement platform</a> is available until March 28, 2024. While not perfect — I personally felt that the questions put too much emphasis on how to prioritize actions as opposed to the pace of action and how to fairly distribute transition costs — individuals and organizations can also upload a document of their choice to contribute beyond the questions provided.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-assemblies-can-help-canada-tackle-the-climate-crisis-210843">How climate assemblies can help Canada tackle the climate crisis</a>
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<p>These submissions correspond to Section 13 of the Net-Zero Act, which allows any interested person to make submissions on how to respond to what the Supreme Court <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/18781/index.do">described</a> as “an existential threat to human life in Canada and around the world.” The Paris Agreement also envisions target-setting as a bottom-up process, and Article 12 calls on states to enhance “education, training, public awareness, public participation and public access to information.”</p>
<h2>Ongoing issues</h2>
<p>Canada’s current targets under the Net-Zero Act are a 20 per cent emissions reduction (against 2005 levels) by 2026, a 40-45 per cent reduction by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050. The 2030 target appears in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">global registry</a> of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) as Canada’s pledge under Article 4(2) of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>Several issues can be identified with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Canada%27s%20Enhanced%20NDC%20Submission1_FINAL%20EN.pdf">current pledge</a> which should be remedied in the 2035 target.</p>
<p>One of the main issues is Canada’s approach to “fair shares.” The Paris Agreement leaves it open to states to define ambition, fairness and equity in their own terms. However, there is a <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/">growing consensus</a> that Canada’s efforts are “highly insufficient.” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1970504">One study of a range of NDCs (including Canada’s)</a> points out that defining fair shares in comparison with current emissions, or business-as-usual projections, is contrary to international environmental law as such a framework “grandfathers” in existing emissions — unfortunately, <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Canada%27s%20Enhanced%20NDC%20Submission1_FINAL%20EN.pdf">Canada’s NDCs does exactly this</a>. </p>
<p>By contrast, systems and <a href="https://climateequityreference.org/about-the-climate-equity-reference-project-effort-sharing-approach/">calculators</a> do exist which allow modelling fair shares based on different assumptions about historical responsibilities and current capacity to act. Canada should explain its approach going forward, since equity is a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Another major issue with the 2030 target is Canada’s stance on emissions trading, since the current NDC “recognizes that internationally transferred mitigation outcomes could complement domestic efforts.” This statement makes it impossible to understand what part of the target will be achieved through systems transformation at home and what part will be compensated by emissions trading. This ambiguity requires urgent clarity in the 2035 target. </p>
<p>Furthermore, while the Paris Agreement allows emissions trading, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01245-w">experts warn that delaying true decarbonization may also reduce innovation and limit future options</a>. </p>
<p>A third and last issue is Canada’s approach to Indigenous-led climate policy. A full section of the 2030 target is dedicated to Indigenous climate leadership and includes references to Indigenous rights and a nation-to-nation relationship. However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2047585">scholars</a> have observed on the part of the federal government a “clear unwillingness to recognize Indigenous jurisdiction” in the implementation of climate policy in Canada. This unwillingness limits Indigenous <a href="https://afn.ca/environment/national-climate-strategy/">decision-making powers</a> over land and resources. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-nature-agreement-underscores-the-need-for-true-reconciliation-with-indigenous-nations-217427">Canada’s Nature Agreement underscores the need for true reconciliation with Indigenous nations</a>
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<p>This should be remedied, especially since “<a href="https://files.ipbes.net/ipbes-web-prod-public-files/inline/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf">Nature is generally declining less rapidly in indigenous peoples’ land than in other lands</a>.”</p>
<h2>Keeping on task</h2>
<p>Ultimately, one of the key factors in reaching the 2035 target is <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/commentary/doc/2023CanLIIDocs3169">whether the Net-Zero Act delivers strong accountability</a>. Indeed, both the <a href="https://dashboard.440megatonnes.ca/?_gl=1*v8ysbi*_ga*MTY0NTM3ODc1OC4xNzA5NTY5MjI0*_ga_DVTX0HL4Z5*MTcwOTU2OTIyNC4xLjEuMTcwOTU2OTI0MC4wLjAuMA..*_gcl_au*OTc4NDEzNzM3LjE3MDk1NjkyMjQ.">Canadian Climate Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202311_06_e_44369.html">Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development</a> have raised alarming concerns regarding the progress Canada has made towards the 2035 target — stronger accountability is essential to meet these goals.</p>
<p>In response to these many challenges, we must resist the temptation to go for a weak 2035 target and use the current process to think creatively about how it can be transformational and fair at the same time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Campbell-Duruflé receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) for his research. He serves on the Legal Committee of the Centre québécois du droit de l'environnement.</span></em></p>We must resist the temptation to go for a weak 2035 target and use the public consultation process to think creatively about how the net-zero transition can be both transformational and fair for all.Christopher Campbell-Duruflé, Assistant Professor, Lincoln Alexander School of Law, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246822024-03-20T22:41:06Z2024-03-20T22:41:06ZHow do halibut migrate? Clues are in their ear bones<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578657/original/file-20240220-18-5yndy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C18%2C3953%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The habitats used throughout the halibut's life and the movements between them are difficult to characterize.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Charlotte Gauthier)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rising temperatures, changes in major currents, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-st-lawrence-estuary-is-running-out-of-breath-184626">oxygen depletion at great depths</a>: the Gulf of St. Lawrence has undergone major changes in its environmental conditions in recent decades. That has put many species in danger and, as a consequence, made them more sensitive to the effects of fishing.</p>
<p>However, these changes are benefiting other species such as Atlantic halibut, which is beating records for its abundance and is presently seeing the highest stock in the Gulf of St. Lawrence in <a href="https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/41206708.pdf">the last 60 years</a>.</p>
<p>As a biology researcher, I’d like to shed some light on some of the mysteries that still surround this unusual species.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469058/original/file-20220615-9549-jj1phn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469058/original/file-20220615-9549-jj1phn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469058/original/file-20220615-9549-jj1phn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469058/original/file-20220615-9549-jj1phn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469058/original/file-20220615-9549-jj1phn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469058/original/file-20220615-9549-jj1phn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469058/original/file-20220615-9549-jj1phn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>This article is part of our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/fleuve-saint-laurent-116908">The St. Lawrence River: In depth</a>.
Don’t miss new articles on this mythical river of remarkable beauty. Our experts look at its fauna, flora and history, and the issues it faces. This series is brought to you by <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr">La Conversation</a>.</em></p>
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<h2>Atlantic halibut: champion of the Gulf of St. Lawrence</h2>
<p>Atlantic halibut is a flatfish that lives at the bottom of the estuary and gulf of the St. Lawrence. It is prized for its fine, firm white flesh, which is highly appreciated by consumers.</p>
<p>Halibut can grow to impressive sizes of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23308249.2021.1948502">more than two metres</a>. Because of the quality of its flesh and its popularity on dinner plates, it is currently the most commercially valuable fish in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.</p>
<p>But this has not always been the case. In the 1950s, the adult, harvestable portion of halibut populations, known as the stock, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/73/4/1104/2458915?login=false">suffered a major decline due to overfishing</a>.</p>
<p>If we want to continue to exploit this resource over the long term, we must not repeat the same mistakes we made in the past. To avoid these mistakes, it is vital to have a good understanding of the life cycle of halibut and the effects that fishing can have on the stock. So far, this has not been done to the fullest.</p>
<h2>The challenges for sustainable fishing</h2>
<p>The basic biology of Atlantic halibut is fairly well known. However, both the habitats they use throughout their lives and their movement between these places are more difficult to characterize.</p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/77/7-8/2890/5923787?login=false">Recent studies</a> have placed satellite tags on halibut to record data on the depth and temperature of the water in which they are found, making it possible to accurately calculate their movement. By using this method, the researchers were able to identify the trajectories of adult halibut over a one-year period and discover that they reproduce in winter in the deep channels of the Gulf.</p>
<p>In the halibut’s different annual trajectories, the researchers observed that, in summer, some remain in the deep channels while others migrate to shallower areas.</p>
<p>Even with this new information, a number of questions remain, specifically about the youngest life stages, which are caught only anecdotally in the Gulf. Satellite tags also provide accurate information, but only over a one-year period, which doesn’t tell the whole story for a fish that can live up to 50 years.</p>
<p>With this in mind, the use of a new tool to study the entire life of fish becomes highly relevant.</p>
<h2>Ear bones to the rescue</h2>
<p>All bony fish have small calcareous structures in their inner ear called otoliths, or ear bones, which perform balance and hearing functions.</p>
<p>Otoliths develop at the very beginning of a fish’s life and grow at the same rate as the fish. Otoliths form annual growth rings that are comparable to those visible in tree trunks.</p>
<p>To grow, otoliths accumulate chemical elements that are found in the environment in which the fish swim. So, when the fish moves, the chemical elements accumulated in the otoliths will be different from one place to another. Each location is characterized by a unique combination of different concentrations of chemical elements. This is known as an elemental fingerprint. Identifying these fingerprints can provide us with crucial information about the movement of fish in different places throughout their lives.</p>
<p>I used this method of characterizing the chemical elements in otoliths to study the migratory patterns of Atlantic halibut in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.</p>
<h2>A wide range of migratory strategies</h2>
<p>To find out what concentrations of a chemical element correspond to the place where the fish was caught, we use the fingerprint of the otolith margin, i.e. the material at the end of the outermost ring of the otolith, which was accumulated last.</p>
<p>The concentrations of the elements found there are considered to be characteristic of the place where the fish was caught. By analyzing the margins of nearly 200 halibut otoliths from all over the Gulf, I was able to distinguish two basic fingerprints: one representative of surface waters (less than 100 metres deep) and one characteristic of deeper waters (more than 100 metres deep).</p>
<p>Once these fingerprints had been identified, I observed the concentration of chemical elements throughout the life of the fish so that I could associate each moment of life with either the surface water fingerprint or the deep-water fingerprint.</p>
<p>By separating the life of each individual into time spent in surface and deep waters, I was able to identify recurring patterns and group them into three different migratory strategies: residents, annual migrants and irregular migrants.</p>
<p>In this way, I was able to observe that halibut caught in the southern part of the Gulf were mainly annual migrants, and therefore undertake migrations between deep and shallow waters every year. However, in the northern part of the Gulf the majority are residents. Residents are fish that may have migrated early in their lives, but have settled permanently in deep waters before reaching maturity. Irregular migrants, on the other hand, show migrations on a more sporadic frequency, and are found in similar proportions throughout the study area.</p>
<h2>On the right track to optimal management</h2>
<p>My study is the first to offer a global view of the movements made by halibut over their entire lifetime.</p>
<p>This new information provides a better understanding of the structure of the stock and the diversity of migratory strategies that can be found within it.</p>
<p>Given that these strategies are distributed differently in different areas of the Gulf, we can ensure that we do not disproportionately target halibut using the same migratory strategy and avoid overfishing a single component of the stock.</p>
<p>In this way, it is possible to conserve this diversity, which helps the stock’s resilience in the face of the various changes that can occur.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224682/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlotte Gauthier has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Fondation de l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi.
</span></em></p>Atlantic halibut are making a strong comeback in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. But how do we know where the fish move throughout their lives?Charlotte Gauthier, Étudiante au doctorat, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261222024-03-20T19:04:04Z2024-03-20T19:04:04Z‘How long before climate change will destroy the Earth?’: research reveals what Australian kids want to know about our warming world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582994/original/file-20240320-16-lx7lnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C19%2C6374%2C4224&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-boy-taking-photos-land-burnt-1563856276">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every day, more children discover they are living in a climate crisis. This makes <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00278-3/fulltext">many children feel</a> sad, anxious, angry, powerless, confused and frightened about what the future holds. </p>
<p>The climate change burden facing young people is inherently unfair. But they have the potential to be the most powerful generation when it comes to creating change.</p>
<p>Research and public debate so far has largely <a href="https://www.hhrjournal.org/2014/07/climate-change-childrens-rights-and-the-pursuit-of-intergenerational-climate-justice/">failed to engage</a> with the voices and opinions of children – instead, focusing on the views of adults.
<a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(24)00100-3">Our research</a> set out to change this. </p>
<p>We asked 1,500 children to tell us what they wanted to know about climate change. The results show climate action, rather than the scientific cause of the problem, is their greatest concern. It suggests climate change education in schools must become more holistic and empowering, and children should be given more opportunities to shape the future they will inherit.</p>
<h2>Questions of ‘remarkable depth’</h2>
<p>In Australia, research shows <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264546580_Children's_Fears_hopes_and_heroes_Modern_childhood_in_Australia">43% of children</a> aged 10 to 14 are worried about the future impact of climate change, and one in four believe the world will end before they grow up.</p>
<p>Children are often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.853">seen as</a> passive, marginal actors in the climate crisis. Evidence of an intergenerational divide is also emerging. Young people report feeling <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001103">unheard</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016718520302748?via%3Dihub">betrayed by older generations</a> when it comes to climate change. </p>
<p>Our study examined 464 questions about climate change submitted to the <a href="https://curiousclimate.org.au/schools/">Curious Climate Schools</a> program in Tasmania in 2021 and 2022. The questions were asked by primary and high school students aged 7 to 18.</p>
<p>The children’s questions reveal a remarkable depth of consideration about climate change.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-well-does-the-new-australian-curriculum-prepare-young-people-for-climate-change-183356">How well does the new Australian Curriculum prepare young people for climate change?</a>
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<img alt="teenagers hold signs at rally" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582991/original/file-20240320-30-u8t2vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582991/original/file-20240320-30-u8t2vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582991/original/file-20240320-30-u8t2vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582991/original/file-20240320-30-u8t2vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582991/original/file-20240320-30-u8t2vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582991/original/file-20240320-30-u8t2vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582991/original/file-20240320-30-u8t2vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The vast majority of children worry about climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-united-kingdom-15th-february-1315212515">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Kids are thinking globally</h2>
<p>The impacts of climate change were discussed in 38% of questions. About 10% of questions asked about impacts on places, such as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>With the rate of climate change, what will the Earth be like when I’m an adult?</p>
<p>What does the melting of glaciers in Antarctica mean for Tassie (Tasmania) and our climate?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These questions demonstrate children’s understanding of the global scale of the climate crisis and their concern about places close to home.</p>
<p>How climate change will affect humans accounted for 12% of questions. Impacts on animals and biodiversity were the subject of 9% of questions. Examples include:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Will climate change make us live elsewhere, eg underwater or in space?</p>
<p>What species may become extinct due to climate change, which species could adapt to changing conditions and have we already seen this begin to happen?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Approximately 7% of questions asked about ice melting and/or sea-level rise, while 3% asked about extreme weather or disasters.</p>
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<img alt="four children in school uniforms reading book" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582988/original/file-20240320-30-1bimcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6262%2C4694&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582988/original/file-20240320-30-1bimcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582988/original/file-20240320-30-1bimcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582988/original/file-20240320-30-1bimcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582988/original/file-20240320-30-1bimcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582988/original/file-20240320-30-1bimcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582988/original/file-20240320-30-1bimcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Children wonder what Earth will look like when they are adults.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/row-multiethnic-elementary-students-reading-book-143878204">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>‘What can we do?’</h2>
<p>Action on climate change was the most frequent theme, discussed in 40% of questions. Some questions involved the kinds of action needed and others focused on the challenges in taking action. They include:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>How would you make rapid climate improvements without sacrificing industry and finance?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Around 16% of questions asked about, or implied, who was responsible for climate action. Governments and politicians were the largest group singled out. Other questions asked about the responsibilities of schools, communities, states, countries and individuals. Examples include:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What can I do as a 12-year-old to help the planet, and why will these actions help us?</p>
<p>If the world knows about climate change, why has not much happened?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some 20% of questions suggested action by specific sectors of the economy. This included stopping using fossil fuels and moving to renewable energy or nuclear power. Some suggested action related to food, agriculture or fisheries.</p>
<h2>Existential worries</h2>
<p>In 27% of questions, students raised existential concerns about climate change. This reveals the urgency and frustration many children feel.</p>
<p>The largest group of these questions (15%) asked for predictions of future events. Some 5% of questions implied the planet, or humanity, was doomed. They included:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Will all the reefs die?</p>
<p>How long before climate change will destroy the Earth?</p>
<p>How long will we be able to survive on our planet if we do nothing to try to slow down/reverse climate change?</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Why is Earth getting hot?</h2>
<p>Scientific questions about climate change made up 25% of the total. The largest group related to the causes and physical processes, such as: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>What causes the Earth to get hotter due to climate change?</p>
<p>Would our world be the same now if the Industrial Revolution hadn’t happened?</p>
<p>How do they know the climate and percentage of gases, such as methane, in the 1800s?</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What all this means</h2>
<p>Our analysis indicates children are very concerned about how climate change affects the things and places they care about. Children also want to know how to contribute to solutions – either through their own actions or influencing adults, industries and governments. Children asked fewer questions about the scientific evidence for climate change. </p>
<p>So what are the implications of this?</p>
<p>Research shows that where climate change is taught in schools, it is primarily <a href="http://www.jsedimensions.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Siperstein-JSE-Nov-2015-Hope-Issue-PDF.pdf">represented as</a> a scientific and environmental issue, without focus on the social and political causes and challenges.</p>
<p>While children need information about the science of global warming, our research suggests this is not enough. Climate change should be integrated into all subjects in the curriculum, from social studies to maths to food. </p>
<p>Teachers should also be trained to understand climate challenges themselves, and to identify and support students suffering from climate distress.</p>
<p>And children must be given opportunities to get involved in shaping the future. Governments and industry should commit to listening to children’s concerns about climate change, and acting on them.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-tend-to-be-very-gentle-how-teachers-are-navigating-climate-change-in-the-classroom-212370">'I tend to be very gentle': how teachers are navigating climate change in the classroom</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chloe Lucas received funding from the Centre for Marine Socioecology, the University of Tasmania, and the Tasmanian Climate Change Office for the research and engagement reported in this article, as part of the Curious Climate Schools program. She is also funded by the Australian Research Council. Chloe is a member of the Centre for Marine Socioecology, the Institute of Australian Geographers and the International Environmental Communication Association, and is a member of the Editorial Board of Australian Geographer.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlotte Earl-Jones received funding from the Centre for Marine Socioecology, the University of Tasmania, and the Tasmanian Climate Change Office for the research and engagement reported in this article, as part of the Curious Climate Schools program. She is also funded by Westpac Scholars Trust and the Australian Commonwealth Government Research Training Program. She is a member of the Institute of Australian Geographers. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabi Mocatta received funding from the Centre for Marine Socioecology, the University of Tasmania and the Tasmanian Climate Change Office (now re-named Renewables, Climate and Future Industries Tasmania) for the research and engagement reported here. She is also President of the Board of the International Environmental Communication Association.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gretta Pecl receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Department of Agriculture Water and the Environment, Department of Primary Industries NSW, Department of Premier and Cabinet (Tasmania), the Fisheries Research & Development Corporation, and has received travel funding support from the Australian government for participation in the IPCC process. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kim Beasy received funding from the Centre for Marine Socioecology, the University of Tasmania, and the Tasmanian Climate Change Office for the research and engagement reported in this article, as part of the Curious Climate School program. She is a member of the Centre of Marine Socioecology and the Australian Association of Environmental Education. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kelly receives funding from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, and the Centre for Marine Socioecology at the University of Tasmania.</span></em></p>The result shows climate change education in schools must become more holistic and empowering, and children should be allowed to shape the future they will inherit.Chloe Lucas, Lecturer and Research Fellow, School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences. Coordinator, Education for Sustainability Tasmania, University of TasmaniaCharlotte Earl-Jones, PhD Candidate, University of TasmaniaGabi Mocatta, Research Fellow in Climate Change Communication, Climate Futures Program, University of Tasmania, and Lecturer in Communication, Deakin UniversityGretta Pecl, Professor, at IMAS and Director of the Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of TasmaniaKim Beasy, Senior Lecturer in Curriculum and Pedagogy, University of TasmaniaRachel Kelly, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Future Ocean and Coastal Infrastructures (FOCI) Consortium, Memorial University, Canada, and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237152024-03-19T20:37:08Z2024-03-19T20:37:08ZBill C-372: Banning fossil fuel ads does not go far enough<p>When the New Democratic Party MP Charlie Angus proposed <a href="https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/bill/C-372/first-reading">private member’s bill C-372 in February to ban fossil-fuel advertising</a> it is unsurprising that he struck a nerve with many. After all, standing up to fossil fuel interests in a natural resources economy such as Canada’s is unlikely to make you a lot of friends. </p>
<p>While the bill’s future remains uncertain, what is clear is that the debate it triggered has revealed interesting dynamics, and fault lines, at play within the Canadian economy and civil society. </p>
<p>Some reactions to bill C-372 show bad faith on the part of the lobbyists of the oil and gas sector — and illustrate still wide-spread ignorance about the existential threat of climate change. However, other lines of criticism thrown at Angus should be taken seriously, even if they ultimately fall short of being convincing.</p>
<h2>Free speech versus harm</h2>
<p>First in the list of criticisms is that this bill would unduly limit free speech. It is important to clarify that the bill does not concern individual free speech, but instead targets corporate communications. </p>
<p>The belief that corporations have a right of free speech is itself disputed both in Canada <a href="https://scholarship.law.umn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1556&context=concomm">and the United States</a>. More fundamentally, the right to free speech has to be weighed against the other rights at stake — including <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/canadian-environmental-protection-act-registry/right-to-healthy-environment.html">the right to live in a healthy environment</a>.</p>
<p>As Bill C-372 states, “air pollution caused by fossil fuels leads to millions of premature deaths globally, including tens of thousands of premature deaths in Canada alone” — a claim which has been substantiated by a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate">range of recent studies</a>. These numbers are only set to rise.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A 2021 report produced by British broadcaster Channel 4 detailing the extensive use of advertising on social media by large fossil-fuel corporations.</span></figcaption>
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<p>One of liberal societies’ core values is the idea that people are free to do what they want, unless their actions cause harm to others. I can have a bonfire, but I cannot do so in drought conditions when the fire would put lives at risk. </p>
<p>The emissions from fossil fuel production and consumption put lives at risk through global warming and extreme weather and they reduce the quality of life through air pollution and the respiratory diseases it causes. Indeed, one study argues that the <a href="https://bigthink.com/the-present/corporate-death-penalty/">U.S. coal industry currently kills more people than it employs</a>.</p>
<p>Allowing advertising for these activities adds insult to injury and infringes upon the rights and health of millions. It is hard to see how anyone could be against Bill C-372.</p>
<h2>Too costly compared to what?</h2>
<p>Some critics attack the analogy Angus draws between banning fossil fuel ads and the tobacco ban in the 1980s. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-ndps-effort-to-ban-the-promotion-of-big-oil-misses-the-mark/">Kelly Cryderman in the <em>Globe and Mail</em></a>, for example, asserted that “smoking is way easier to quit than oil” which is so central to our economy.</p>
<p>This critique insinuates that “quitting” fossil fuels would simply be too costly. It no doubt would be expensive, but the relevant question here is “costly compared to what?” A brief look at the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">latest report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would put this claim to rest. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, a recent <a href="https://canadianclimat.wpenginepowered.com/climate-change-is-coming-for-your-wallet/">report by the Canadian Climate Institute</a> has found that climate change will cost Canadians on average $700 a year over the next three years alone and as soon as 2025 “climate-induced damages will be slowing Canada’s economic growth to the tune of $25 billion annually, equal to about half the expected annual growth in our economy.” </p>
<p>You don’t have to read the fine print to get the idea that not quitting fossil fuels will be considerably more expensive than phasing them out. </p>
<p>Recognizing this, is entirely compatible with acknowledging the hard work many Canadians have put into fossil fuel extraction. A just transition requires providing them with new opportunities.</p>
<p>Furthermore, Bill C-372 asks no one to quit anything. It merely proposes to ban advertising fossil fuels. By any reasonable standard, this makes it a rather modest measure. Which brings us to a third point of contention.</p>
<h2>Who are the radicals here?</h2>
<p>When one reads claims that Bill C-372 allegedly requires us to <a href="https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-the-bizarre-logic-of-the-green-radicals">“try wintering in Canada without fossil fuel energy,”</a> one wonders whether the critics in question were reading some survival magazine instead of Bill C-372. But their intentions are clear. </p>
<p>They are working to portray the bill as a radical proposal formulated at the fringes of the political spectrum to the detriment of working people.</p>
<p>The consensus position among mainstream economists today is that fossil fuel production and consumption are inefficiently high, because their social and environmental costs – deaths, lung diseases, wildfires, atmospheric rivers, etc. – are <a href="https://core-econ.org/the-economy/microeconomics/10-market-successes-failures-02-pollution-effects.html">not adequately reflected in market prices</a>. Carbon taxes provide a potential remedy, but they remain a mostly under-utilized mechanism in most countries, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/carbon-tax-home-heating-oil-1.7015480">including Canada</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-7-policies-could-help-save-a-billion-lives-by-2100-212953">COP28: How 7 policies could help save a billion lives by 2100</a>
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<p>If carbon pricing via taxation is the mainstream, what would be a truly radical approach to the climate crisis? Perhaps doing away with the <a href="https://lpeproject.org/blog/privatizing-sovereignty-socializing-property-what-economics-doesnt-teach-you-about-the-corporation/">limited liability</a> of fossil fuel corporations, exposing them to trillions of dollars of damages in the future? Or <a href="https://jacobin.com/2020/08/nationalize-fossil-fuels-green-new-deal-big-oil">nationalizing the industry</a> to progressively wind it down? But banning fossil fuel advertising? It’s a drop in the bucket. A modest step at best.</p>
<p>It’s always hard to change one’s ways, both for individuals and societies. The worst possible attitude is to be in denial about what is required. Given the existential threat of climate change, the true radicals here are those opposing Bill C-372.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Dietsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bill C-372 does not curtail free speech and, if anything, demonstrates how banning fossil fuel ads does not go nearly far enough.Peter Dietsch, Professor, Department of Philosophy, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252682024-03-18T19:21:15Z2024-03-18T19:21:15ZOn a climate rollercoaster: how Australia’s environment fared in the world’s hottest year<p>Global climate <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record">records were shattered</a> in 2023, from air and sea temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice extent. Scores of countries recorded their hottest year and numerous weather disasters occurred as climate change reared its head. </p>
<p>How did Australia’s environment fare against this onslaught? In short, 2023 was a year of opposites.</p>
<p>For the past nine years, we have trawled through huge volumes of data collected by satellites, measurement stations and surveys by individuals and agencies. We include data on global change, oceans, people, weather, water, soils, vegetation, fire and biodiversity. </p>
<p>Each year, we analyse those data, summarising them in an <a href="https://bit.ly/ausenv2023">annual report</a> that includes an overall Environmental Condition Score and <a href="https://ausenv.online/aer/scorecards/">regional scorecards</a>. These scores provide a relative measure of conditions for agriculture and ecosystems. Scores declined across the country, except in the Northern Territory, but were still relatively good.</p>
<p>However, the updated <a href="https://tsx.org.au/">Threatened Species Index</a> shows the abundance of listed bird, mammal and plant species has continued to decline at a rate of about 3% a year since the turn of the century.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Environmental condition indicators for 2023, showing the changes from 2000–2022 average values. Such differences can be part of a long-term trend or within normal variability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report-1.pdf">Australia's Environment 2023 Report.</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">How 2023's record heat worsened droughts, floods and bushfires around the world</a>
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<h2>Riding a climate rollercoaster in 2023</h2>
<p>Worldwide, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">77 countries broke temperature records</a>. Australia was not one of them. Our annual average temperature was 0.53°C below the horror year 2019. Temperatures in the seas around us were below the records of 2022. </p>
<p>Even so, 2023 was among Australia’s eight warmest years in both cases. All eight came after 2005.</p>
<p>However, those numbers are averaged over the year. Dig a bit deeper and it becomes clear 2023 was a climate rollercoaster.</p>
<p>The year started as wet as the previous year ended, but dry and unseasonably warm weather set in from May to October. Soils and wetlands across much of the country started drying rapidly. In the eastern states, the fire season started as early as August. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, there was generally still enough water to support good vegetation growth throughout the unusually warm and sunny winter months.</p>
<p>Fears of a severe fire season were not realised as El Niño’s influence waned in November and rainfall returned, in part due to the warm oceans. Combined with relatively high temperatures, it made for a hot and humid summer. A tropical cyclone and several severe storms caused flooding in Queensland and Victoria in December. </p>
<p>As always, there were regional differences. Northern Australia experienced the best rainfall and growth conditions in several years. This contributed to more grass fires than average during the dry season. On the other hand, the rain did not return to Western Australia and Tasmania, which ended the year dry.</p>
<h2>So how did scores change?</h2>
<p>Every year we calculate an Environmental Condition Score that combines weather, water and vegetation data.</p>
<p>The national score was 7.5 (out of 10). That was 1.2 points lower than for 2022, but still the second-highest score since 2011. </p>
<p>Scores declined across the country except for the Northern Territory, which chalked up a score of 8.8 thanks to a strong monsoon season. With signs of drought developing in parts of Western Australia, it had the lowest score of 5.5.</p>
<p>The Environmental Condition Score reflects environmental conditions, but does not measure the long-term health of natural ecosystems and biodiversity. </p>
<p>Firstly, it relates only to the land and not our oceans. Marine heatwaves damaged ecosystems along the eastern coast. Surveys in the first half of 2023 suggested the recovery of the Great Barrier Reef plateaued. </p>
<p>However, a cyclone and rising ocean temperatures occurred later in the year. In early 2024, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reefs-latest-bout-of-bleaching-is-the-fifth-in-eight-summers-the-corals-now-have-almost-no-reprieve-225348">another mass coral bleaching event</a> developed. </p>
<p>Secondly, the score does not capture important processes affecting our many threatened species. Among the greatest dangers are invasive pests and diseases, habitat destruction and damage from severe weather events such as heatwaves and megafires.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-ecosystems-unprecedented-climates-more-australian-species-than-ever-are-struggling-to-survive-222375">New ecosystems, unprecedented climates: more Australian species than ever are struggling to survive</a>
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<h2>Threatened species’ declines continued</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://tsx.org.au/">Threatened Species Index</a> captures data from long-term threatened species monitoring. The index is updated annually with a three-year lag, largely due to delays in data processing and sharing. This means the 2023 index includes data up to 2020.</p>
<p>The index showed an unrelenting decline of about 3% in the abundance of Australia’s threatened bird, mammal and plant species each year. This amounts to an overall decline of 61% from 2000 to 2020.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph of Threatened Species Index" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Threatened Species Index showing the abundance of different categories of species listed under the EPBC Act relative to 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report-1.pdf">Australia's Environment 2023 Report</a></span>
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<p>The index for birds in 2023 revealed declines were most severe for terrestrial birds (62%), followed by migratory shorebirds (47%) and marine birds (24%).</p>
<p>A record 130 species were added to Australia’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/nominations">threatened species lists</a> in 2023. That’s many more than the annual average of 29 species over previous years. The 2019–2020 <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">Black Summer bushfires</a> had direct impacts on half the newly listed species.</p>
<h2>Population boom adds to pressures</h2>
<p>Australia’s population passed <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-clock-pyramid">27 million</a> in 2023, a stunning increase of 8 million, or 41%, since 2000. Those extra people all needed living space, food, electricity and transport. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-population-is-expected-to-double-in-80-years-we-asked-australians-where-they-want-all-these-people-to-live-176889">Our population is expected to double in 80 years. We asked Australians where they want all these people to live</a>
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<p>Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2023">have risen by 18% since 2000</a>. Despite small declines in the previous four years, emissions increased again in 2023, mostly due to air travel rebounding after COVID-19. </p>
<p>Our emissions per person are the <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023">tenth-highest in the world</a> and more than three times those of the average global citizen. The main reasons are our coal-fired power stations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-passenger-vehicle-emission-rates-are-50-higher-than-the-rest-of-the-world-and-its-getting-worse-222398">inefficient road vehicles</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/11/how-many-cattle-are-there-in-australia-we-may-be-out-by-10-million">large cattle herd</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, there are reasons to be optimistic. Many other countries have dramatically <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-gdp-decoupling">reduced emissions without compromising economic growth</a> or quality of life. All we have to do is to finally follow their lead.</p>
<p>Our governments have an obvious role to play, but we can do a lot as individuals. We can even save money, by switching to renewable energy and electric vehicles and by eating less beef.</p>
<p>Changing our behaviour will not stop climate change in its tracks, but will slow it down over the next decades and ultimately reverse it. We cannot reverse or even stop all damage to our environment, but we can certainly do much better.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need-220050">As Australia's net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Australia’s Environment is produced by the ANU Fenner School for Environment & Society and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN), an NCRIS-enabled National Research Infrastructure. Albert Van Dijk receives or has previously received funding from several government-funded agencies, grant schemes and programmes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tayla Lawrie is a current employee of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN), funded by the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shoshana Rapley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conditions deteriorated in 2023 but were stlil relatively good for ecosystems and agriculture. Unfortunately, the alarming decline of threatened species continued.Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityShoshana Rapley, Research Assistant, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityTayla Lawrie, Project Manager, Threatened Species Index, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204542024-03-17T12:55:29Z2024-03-17T12:55:29ZEmissions impossible? How the transport sector can help make the 2050 net-zero goal a reality<p>Meeting Canada’s <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">ambitious net-zero emissions target by 2050</a> necessitates significant technological, behavioural and systemic changes in the transportation sector, a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport#:%7E:text=The%20IEA%20looks%20at%20CO%202%20emissions%20from,%2F%2033.5%20billion%20%3D%2024%25%20of%20energy-related%20emissions.">major contributor</a> to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Indeed, the transportation sector alone is responsible for a quarter of all GHG emissions worldwide, with road transport accounting for about 80 per cent of this figure. </p>
<p>As current trends suggest, both energy demand and emissions from transportation are <a href="https://uploads.iasscore.in/pdf/CAA_WEEK-2_NOVEMBER--2022.pdf">expected to double by 2050</a>, indicating the need for a radical transformation rather than incremental improvements.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/e-fuels-can-play-a-huge-role-in-canadas-journey-towards-a-net-zero-future-215405">E-fuels can play a huge role in Canada's journey towards a net-zero future</a>
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<p>The shift towards alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), such as plug-in electric or fuel cell hydrogen, is central to this transformation.</p>
<p>Estimates suggest that achieving the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/whats-difference-between-15c-2c-global-warming-2021-11-07/">2 C climate target</a> would require AFVs to comprise 50 per cent of total traffic by 2050. Moreover, achieving the 1.5 C climate target would require AFV sales to reach 75 to 95 per cent by <a href="https://systemschangelab.org/transport/transition-zero-carbon-cars-trucks-and-buses#summary">2030</a>.</p>
<p>The commercial sector, in particular, stands to benefit from significant GHG reductions, both financially and through the adoption of modern trucks equipped with advanced technologies. </p>
<h2>Challenges and opportunities</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019">International Energy Agency</a> estimates that GHG emissions could be reduced by 60 per cent if new types of light, medium and heavy freight vehicles achieve widespread adoption. However, the transition to AFVs, particularly in the commercial domain, is hindered by several factors and their adoption remains <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-electric-heavy-duty-vehicles">limited</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022, electric vehicles constituted only 1.2 per cent of all medium- and heavy-duty truck sales, with the majority occurring in China. This lack of adoption by trucking firms reflects a wait-and-see approach, which is likely the result of higher upfront costs associated with AFVs, the scarcity of e-trucks and the perceived inconvenience of plug-in <a href="https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-future-of-the-trucking-industry-electric-semi-trucks-2023">charging</a>.</p>
<p>Technological advancements and the increasing interest from vehicle manufacturers <a href="https://globaldrivetozero.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Final_ZETI-Report-June-2023_Final.pdf">such as Daimler, Nikola, Scania, Tesla and Volvo</a> in producing e-trucks have begun to address some of these concerns. </p>
<p>In 2022, there were 290 medium- and heavy-duty vehicle models produced or announced to be under production in <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-electric-heavy-duty-vehicles">North America and Europe</a>. This number is only set to grow and the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles has been reduced to below that of traditional internal combustion vehicles — further challenging the traditional barriers to adoption. </p>
<h2>The struggle for adequate charging infrastructure</h2>
<p>However, insufficient charging infrastructure remains an obstacle. Extended charging periods and the effort required to locate charging stations leads to longer unproductive driving times (time not spent on-the-job) for trucks. </p>
<p>The impact of inadequate charging infrastructure on the transportation industry is significant. Each minute a truck <a href="https://www.ooida.com/trucking-tools/cost-per-mile/">spends at a charging station, either waiting or charging, and each kilometre traversed to find a charging station directly translates to reduced profits and higher costs</a>. This not only affects timely deliveries and pickups, but also forces companies to consider expanding their fleet to maintain service levels, further escalating investment costs in a fiercely competitive industry. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion-218019">COP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion</a>
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</em>
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<p>The absence of substantial investment in <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-charging-infrastructure#abstract">public charging networks</a>, particularly outside of China, exacerbates this issue. Furthermore, even with ample public stations, firms worry that queues for charging could delay trucks, increasing costs and lowering service quality while also complicating the shift towards green practices.</p>
<h2>Economic viability of electrification</h2>
<p>The seven to 10-year lifespan of heavy-duty trucks means that many firms may have to make annual decisions on replacement vehicles. However, firms are often <a href="https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-future-of-the-trucking-industry-electric-semi-trucks-2023">deterred from transitioning away from fossil fuels by the high initial costs of e-trucks</a> and the lack of a comprehensive charging infrastructure — choosing instead to stick with their existing fleets.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1_vIQ4FqmGI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview on the evolution and limitations of electric trucks produced by Undecided with Matt Ferrell.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This approach overlooks the long-term benefits and cost savings associated with the lower operational and maintenance costs of e-trucks, as well as the potential for firms to develop their own charging networks. As we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2022.102595">show in our 2022 study</a>, adopting a holistic approach to address these challenges could make the transition to e-trucks economically viable, encouraging firms to begin replacing their traditional international combustion vehicles. </p>
<p>Such a holistic approach should consider the medium to long-term evolution of technological and economic factors, and the effects of the charging infrastructure density on fleet size requirements. Firms should optimize their vehicle and infrastructure investment decisions simultaneously, by considering the potential changes over time. Our study further showed that: </p>
<p>1) Investing in e-trucks can be optimal only if the decision-maker also invests in their own charging infrastructure.</p>
<p>2) Larger battery capacity is not always the best option compared to smaller battery capacity. </p>
<p>3) Improvements in diesel engine efficiency can be counterproductive in the long-run and can thwart the efforts to attain net-zero emission targets.</p>
<h2>Public-private partnerships</h2>
<p>The concept of public-private partnerships also presents an opportunity to enhance the charging infrastructure. By collaborating with governments and investing in increasing the charging capacity of public charging facilities, firms can mitigate the limitations of the current infrastructure and maintain service levels without bearing the full cost of establishing and maintaining charging stations. </p>
<p>This approach benefits firms, the government and also the general public by helping build more charging facilities. Simply put, by adopting a holistic approach, firms can not only achieve environmental goals, but also realize economic benefits, paving the way for a sustainable future in transportation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While barriers still remain, the benefits of electrifying the transport sector are clear for both society and individual firms.Osman Alp, Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management, University of CalgaryMaximiliano Udenio, Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management, KU LeuvenTarkan Tan, Professor of Sustainable Operations Management, University of ZurichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255812024-03-13T19:15:13Z2024-03-13T19:15:13ZTennis anyone? Bad news for skiers as snow season could shrink by 78% this century<p>As the days shorten, many of us, particularly in Australia’s south-east, are looking forward to cooler times, and perhaps the allure of snow on the horizon. In the past week many in this region experienced their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/10/hobart-endures-hottest-night-in-112-years-as-severe-heatwave-hits-south-eastern-australia">warmest days for over a century</a>. What does this bode for times to come?</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299735">Research</a> released overnight suggests ski areas in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand will soon have much less snow due to climate change. German researcher Veronika Mitterwallner and her colleagues show average annual snow-cover days may decline by 78% in the Australian Alps and 51% in the Southern Alps of Aotearoa New Zealand (under a high-emissions scenario) by 2071–2100. Worldwide, they found 13% of ski areas will lose all natural snow cover by the end of the century. </p>
<p>It’s <a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=617796527113271&set=pb.100066487878368.-2207520000&type=3&paipv=0&eav=AfaxRFHwY-3bvBmVsaq89GJJD_KbCitxFy9ExZef_YY5iwR1SbFy80eVARtIAgSDcuI&_rdr">often said</a> Australia gets more snow than Switzerland, though the evidence <a href="https://business.weatherzone.com.au/news/does-australia-really-have-more-snow-than-switzerland/">says otherwise</a>. The fact remains that the Australian Alps cover a large area, more than 12,000km, with a <a href="https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2016/68/c068p025.pdf">third or more</a> covered in snow at peak times. So these changes will have a broad impact on local economies and threaten fragile alpine ecosystems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a panoramic view of the Australian Alps covered in snow" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581462/original/file-20240313-20-3ydx39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581462/original/file-20240313-20-3ydx39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581462/original/file-20240313-20-3ydx39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581462/original/file-20240313-20-3ydx39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581462/original/file-20240313-20-3ydx39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581462/original/file-20240313-20-3ydx39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581462/original/file-20240313-20-3ydx39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If Australia loses three-quarters of its snow-cover days, a surprisingly big area will be affected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Greg Brave/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How did the study make these findings?</h2>
<p>Mitterwallner’s team used a high-resolution climate data set for the global land surface area to identify the annual number of natural snow-cover days. Then, they projected those data under three emissions scenarios, and looked at historical (1950-2010), present (2011-2040), immediate future (2041-2070) and near future (2071-2100) data to examine changes over time.</p>
<p>Under most modelled emission scenarios, they found the annual number of snow-cover days will greatly decrease worldwide. For Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, in particular, they found the average number will decrease by 78% and 51% respectively. These were the two regions with the greatest losses of snow.</p>
<p>However, under a low-emissions scenario, the good news is no regions will fall below an average of 100 snow-cover days a year. This is historically the minimum number of days a ski resort needs in seven out of ten winters <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-020-01867-3#">to remain viable</a> (cover must be at least 30–50cm).</p>
<h2>How will we adapt to the loss of snow?</h2>
<p>Will the way we use our alpine areas have to change permanently? Many resorts have already pivoted to activities such as mountain biking that don’t rely on snow. Skiing may be off the agenda – tennis anyone?</p>
<p>The prognosis of such research has driven the formation of groups such as <a href="https://protectourwinters.org/about-pow/">Protect Our Winters</a>. The mission of the <a href="https://protectourwinters.org.au">Australian section</a> is to help Australia’s outdoor community protect the integrity of our unique alpine environment and lifestyle from climate change.</p>
<p>Beyond Australia, New York recently had its <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/snowstorm-northeast-nyc/snow-totals-near-new-york-city-107198753?id=107160643">highest snowfall in two years</a>. Across the United States in general, though, they just experienced the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/08/weather/winter-warmth-record-climate/index.html">warmest winter ever</a>.</p>
<p>What is going on? And what might this new research mean, particularly for Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand?</p>
<p>These predictions, for almost all emissions scenarios, do not bode well for the skiers among us. More importantly, as many <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468312421000183#ab010">communities in the Himalaya</a> are finding out, snow is not just a recreational “nice to have”. It’s a life-source for alpine communities, both human and non-human, and all those that depend on rivers sustained by snow melt around the globe.</p>
<p>Perhaps a greater concern in our region is the potential for ecological damage as resorts seek to increase ski slope metreage in areas that remain snow-covered. Expanding resort footprints is not a sustainable approach to a problem that probably won’t be going away. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A snow machine shoots out a plume of snow in the Snowy Mountains" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581468/original/file-20240313-16-f1zu2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581468/original/file-20240313-16-f1zu2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581468/original/file-20240313-16-f1zu2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581468/original/file-20240313-16-f1zu2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581468/original/file-20240313-16-f1zu2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581468/original/file-20240313-16-f1zu2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581468/original/file-20240313-16-f1zu2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Resorts can make artificial snow, but that doesn’t solve the problem of it melting if the alps get warmer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/snow-machine-sunset-snowy-mountians-background-2321559725">Edward Atkin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Is artificial snow an option?</h2>
<p>So how might we support the goals of Protect Our Winters? What alternatives do we have? How about artificial snow, would that work?</p>
<p>As part of my PhD studies many years ago, at the University of Cambridge’s Scott Polar Research Institute, I made masses of “polar snow” in a cold room (while effectively destroying the air-conditioning units at the same time). Artificial snow can be created quite readily, assuming enough water is at hand. </p>
<p>Artificial snow will have a different form and its density and microstructure will differ, potentially affecting longevity. (You can read more about snow mechanics <a href="https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cr/2022/06/10/what-is-snow-mechanics-and-why-should-we-care/">here</a>.) </p>
<p>But once on the ground, artificial snow, like natural snow, is subject to the vagaries of our weather. If the sun is shining and the day is hot, snow won’t last long, regardless of whether it’s natural or artificial.</p>
<p>There’s a lot to think on here as we contemplate what our world and our region might look like when skiing and snow-covered ground become no more than a memory in some areas. Yes, our recreational activities might change as we wonder whether it’s worth waxing up the skis this year – or is it time to break out the racquets? The ongoing survival of many communities might be jeopardised as a result.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian McCallum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The two alpine regions projected to suffer the greatest loss of snow cover in the world are in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand.Adrian McCallum, Discipline Lead - Engineering, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253472024-03-13T12:38:06Z2024-03-13T12:38:06ZClimate-friendly beef? Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification could help reduce livestock emissions – if it’s done right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580769/original/file-20240308-17800-vh4rq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C0%2C5856%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaFarmersStrike/32b525a49646407fb02737682544e817/photo">AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Argentina, where beef is a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210522-argentina-s-beloved-beef-becomes-bone-of-contention-as-prices-soar">symbol of national pride</a>, a government-led partnership has started <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">certifying certain livestock</a> as carbon neutral. It’s a big step that shouldn’t be underestimated, but getting the certification process right is crucial. </p>
<p>The world’s livestock sector is a key driver of climate change, contributing around <a href="https://foodandagricultureorganization.shinyapps.io/GLEAMV3_Public/">12% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb1922en/cb1922en.pdf">Two-thirds</a> of agriculture’s annual greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock, with raising cattle for meat typically being the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">most emissions-intensive</a> activity. While shifting diets to plant-based foods and <a href="https://gfi.org/initiatives/climate/">alternative proteins</a> can help reduce emissions, global <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb5332en/Meat.pdf">meat consumption</a> is growing with an expanding population and rising prosperity.</p>
<p>There are ways that livestock producers can reduce those emissions. However, beyond social pressure, ranchers have few incentives to do so. Unless those steps to reduce emissions also increase productivity, they typically become costs with little immediate benefit in return.</p>
<p>With formal certification, farmers can earn a higher price. This has been the case with certified organic or fair-trade products. If livestock could be raised in ways that produce fewer emissions and certified as climate-friendly, the resulting higher prices they could fetch might give producers an incentive to invest in reducing their herds’ emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A cow photographed through a tree canopy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification hinges on the grazing landscape sequestering carbon in trees and in the soil to offset methane produced by the cattle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cattle_-_Eldorado,_Misiones_(31449238075).jpg">Papa Pic, Eldorado, Argentina</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Argentina’s certification approach <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">relies on a silvopastoral system</a>, which integrates tree growth with grazing or production of grasses or grains for fodder. Livestock are raised in forest interspersed with native natural grasslands and cultivated pastures. The pasture and grazing are managed to return nutrients and organic matter to the soil. </p>
<p>The trees and soil regeneration methods both store carbon, leading to the certification’s claim that the cattle, despite the greenhouse gases they produce, are carbon neutral. </p>
<p>The certification, approved in early 2024, is a collaboration between Argentina’s National Agricultural Technology Institute and National Industrial Technology Institute and the Argentinian private sector, <a href="https://epd.inti.gob.ar/assets/uploads/libreria/S-P-07361-Eng.pdf">with certification</a> from the <a href="https://www.environdec.com/about-us/the-international-epd-system-about-the-system">International Environmental Product Declaration System</a>, one of the first and longest operating third-party verification systems of environmental claims.</p>
<p>This silvopastoral system may be hard to replicate elsewhere, but it’s only one way to reduce livestock emissions. I’m an <a href="https://keough.nd.edu/people/paul-winters/">agricultural and resource economist</a> and executive director for the <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture</a>, led by Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer. Here are some other emerging innovations that could lead to livestock certifications that reduce emissions:</p>
<h2>1. Feed additives</h2>
<p>Innovative feed additives, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247820">such as red seaweed</a>, could reduce livestock methane emissions by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/AN20295">26% to 98%</a>, depending on the type of additive and how it is administered.</p>
<p>Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with many times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. About 12% of ruminants’ gross energy intake goes into digestive processes that generate methane, which the cows belch into the air. So reducing methane emissions via feed additives could also <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">increase productivity</a> while <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/can-seaweed-cut-methane-emissions-on-dairy-farms">maintaining milk quality</a>. If cattle can conserve energy in the digestive process, they can redirect it toward animal growth and milk production.</p>
<p>Startup companies, such as <a href="https://blueoceanbarns.com/">Blue Ocean Barns</a> and <a href="https://www.future-feed.com/">FutureFeed</a>, have started to produce feed additives to reduce methane. However, products like these aren’t widely used yet, largely because cattle producers have no incentive to invest in changing their practices.</p>
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<h2>2. Gene editing</h2>
<p>Research underway into gene editing – intentionally altering the genetic code of a living organism – <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/can-crispr-cut-methane-emissions-cow-guts">may also have the potential</a> to change the microbes that produce methane in livestock’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-021-01014-7">gut microbiomes</a>. That could substantially reduce livestock emissions.</p>
<p>This type of innovation <a href="https://vcresearch.berkeley.edu/news/igis-audacious-new-frontier-crispr-editing-microbiomes-climate-and-health">might benefit farmers</a> who let their livestock graze in fields rather than provide them with feed. Compared to additives like seaweed, gene editing is meant to be a long-term solution, which would make it more cost-effective over time. But like feed additives, currently there is limited incentive for breeders and producers to consider this direction.</p>
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<h2>3. Advanced farm-management practices</h2>
<p>Advanced farm-management practices, such as improved feeding software, could also help reduce methane emissions intensity. These practices tend to be more affordable than other options.</p>
<p>For example, dairy production in sub-Saharan Africa is much more <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/CA2929EN/ca2929en.pdf">emissions intensive</a> per gallon of milk than production in North America or Europe, and cows in the region are only 5%-7% as productive. This is due to a host of management limitation in low-income settings.</p>
<p>Existing technologies for animal management can be adapted to <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">increase production efficiency</a> and <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ab129327-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ab129327-en#section-d1e24585">reduce overall emissions</a>. Methods of providing better nutrition and animal care for livestock that limit excess methane production are already <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-16576">widely used in higher-income countries</a>. These methods could also be adapted for producers in low- and middle-income regions, with support and the right incentives.</p>
<h2>Certification as a path forward</h2>
<p>Certification can give livestock producers incentive to use these methods, but certification systems must be carefully designed. </p>
<p>Claims like Argentina’s should be <a href="https://www.environdec.com/home">reliably verified</a> to ensure that the certification is credible. Argentina took an important step by including a proven third-party verification system, going beyond similar “climate-friendly” national programs <a href="https://www.climateactive.org.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/NAPCo%20Public%20Disclosure%20Statement_CY2022_Final.pdf">initiated in Australia</a> and <a href="https://modernfarmer.com/2021/12/low-carbon-beef-certification/">the United States</a>.</p>
<p>The organizations that verify certificates should play a role in establishing the rules, but so should governments. For example, feed additives alone are unlikely to reach “carbon-neutral,” but organizations are exploring whether <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">lesser reductions</a> could be sufficient for livestock to be certified as “climate friendly” and earn a higher price for producers. </p>
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<img alt="Cattle cross a dirt road with trees and rangeland in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cattle graze in Argentina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaElectionsFarmers/c017cec73c3d425a91263832aca47bd3/photo">AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko</a></span>
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<p>Finally, certification will only work if consumers are willing to pay a higher price for carbon-neutral, or even just climate-friendly, meat and dairy products.</p>
<p>Higher payments can come directly from consumers buying certified products or through government regulations requiring all meat and dairy products be certified. For example, under its <a href="https://food.ec.europa.eu/horizontal-topics/farm-fork-strategy_en">Farm to Fork Strategy</a>, the European Commission encourages food systems that can mitigate climate change. If the commission were to only accept meat and dairy products certified as climate-friendly, that would create an incentive to pursue certification to enter the large European market.</p>
<p>Some environmental groups have complained that climate certification for beef and <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">related carbon credits</a> result <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/175337/bs-behind-usdas-new-climate-friendly-beef-label">in greenwashing</a>, allowing companies and the industry to burnish their reputations while continuing to release emissions. But certification can also encourage livestock producers to take steps they otherwise wouldn’t to reduce overall emissions for a better planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Winters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. But there are methods that can reduce their climate impact – if ranchers have incentive to use them.Paul Winters, Professor of Global Affairs, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180912024-03-10T13:10:22Z2024-03-10T13:10:22ZThe world is not moving fast enough on climate change — social sciences can help explain why<p>In late 2023 the United States government released <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">its Fifth National Climate Assessment</a> (NCA). The NCA is a semi-regular summation of the impacts of climate change upon the U.S. and the fifth assessment was notable for being the first to include <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/">a chapter on social systems and justice</a>. </p>
<p>Built on decades of social science research on climate change, the fifth NCA contends with two truths that are increasingly being reckoned with in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/climate/biden-environmental-justice.html">U.S. popular</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1816020116">academic conversations</a>. </p>
<p>The first is that climate change has the potential to exacerbate health, social and economic outcomes for Black, Indigenous, people of colour (BIPOC) and low-income communities. The second is that social systems and institutions — including governmental, cultural, spiritual and economic structures — are the only places where adaptation and mitigation can occur.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-is-not-just-heat-waves-climate-change-is-also-a-crisis-of-disconnection-210594">It is not just heat waves — climate change is also a crisis of disconnection</a>
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<p>We only have to compare <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06081-w">mortality rates for the COVID-19 pandemic disaggregated by race, income, and other axes of inequality</a> to recognize that we are not all in the same boat, despite experiencing the same storm. Today, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sou120">race</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087403253053">income</a> similarly predict who is likely to be displaced permanently after a major hurricane — and forced relocation can have negative impacts on individuals and communities for generations. </p>
<p>Understanding how existing social systems influence, and are influenced by, climate change is key to not only slowing the effects of an increasingly warming Earth, but also ensuring that society’s transition to a new world is a <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-89460-3.pdf">just one</a>. </p>
<p>And there is no doubt that we are indeed facing a new world.</p>
<h2>Not moving fast enough</h2>
<p>Decades of scientific research have shown that <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/all-figures">increasingly devastating and rapid climatic changes</a> are ahead of us, including more intense hurricanes, droughts and floods. </p>
<p>Our recent levels of resource consumption — particularly in the Global North and countries with large developing economies — <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262681612/a-climate-of-injustice/">are untenable</a>. To be clear, the world <em>is</em> responding to these risks with the U.S. alone achieving a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/documents/us-ghg-inventory-1990-2019-data-highlights.pdf">13 percent decrease in annual greenhouse gas emissions between 2005 and 2019</a>, but these responses are not good enough.</p>
<p>It is the purview of social scientists — the scientists tasked with studying human society and social relationships in all of their complexity — to ask why.</p>
<p>What is it about the ethics, cultures, economies, and symbols at play in the world that have made it so difficult to turn the tide and make change? Why do we — individuals, societies, cultures, and nations — mostly seem unable to curb emissions at the rates necessary to save ourselves and our planet?</p>
<p>These are questions that can only partially be answered by new information and technologies developed by physical scientists and engineers. We also need an understanding of how humans behave. Having new technology matters for little if you do not also understand how social, economic and political decisions are made — and how certain groups are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818859116">able to develop habits around lower rates of emissions and consumption</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/telling-stories-of-our-climate-futures-is-essential-to-thinking-through-the-net-zero-choices-of-today-210326">Telling stories of our climate futures is essential to thinking through the net-zero choices of today</a>
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<p>We know that inequitable systems create <a href="http://thinkpunkgirl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Lee_2021.pdf">unevenly distributed risk</a> and capacities to respond. For example, a hurricane’s intensity scale is less predictive of its mortality rates than the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27572097/">socio-economic conditions within the nation where the storm makes landfall</a>. Understanding these dynamics is the only way to respond to climate change in a way that does not entrench deep tendencies towards racist, sexist and classist landscapes of vulnerability. </p>
<h2>Empowering real change</h2>
<p>Recognizing that disasters and climate disruptions have the potential to make inequality worse also means that we have the opportunity to do better. </p>
<p>There are a range of outcomes that may stem from climate related disasters with a vast inventory of what is possible. There are also hopeful examples that point the way to rich collaborations and problem solving. For example, <a href="https://www.cityoftulsa.org/government/departments/engineering-services/flood-control/flooding-history/">Tulsa, Okla.</a> was the most frequently flooded city in the U.S. from the 1960s into the 1980s, but a coalition of concerned citizens came together with the city government to create a floodplain management plan that serves as <a href="https://kresge.org/resource/climate-adaptation-the-state-of-practice-in-u-s-communities/">a model</a> for other cities. </p>
<p>In another example, Indigenous communities around the U.S. have some of the most <a href="https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH16">proactive planning</a> in place for adapting to climate change, despite histories of persecution, theft and violent exploitation.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on Indigenous-led bison conservations in the U.S., produced by the Associated Press.</span></figcaption>
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<p>There is an adage that says in order to go quickly, go alone; if you want to go far, go together. Make no mistake, climate change is the most urgent issue of our time. However, moving quickly and carelessly will serve only to re-entrench existing social, economic, political and environmental inequalities. </p>
<p>Instead, we must look at other ways of being in the world. We can repair and recreate our relationships with the Earth and the consumption that has gotten us to this point. We can <a href="https://theconversation.com/respect-for-indigenous-knowledge-must-lead-nature-conservation-efforts-in-canada-156273">pay attention and listen to global Indigenous peoples and others who have cared for this earth for millennia</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-change-theatre-and-performances-reveal-new-narratives-about-how-we-need-to-live-219366">COP28: Climate change theatre and performances reveal new narratives about how we need to live</a>
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<p>We must be more creative with our solutions and committed to ensuring that all, and not just a privileged few, are able to live in a better world than the one in which they were born into. Technological approaches alone will not achieve this goal. To build a better world we need the social sciences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is often seen as solely a technical problem. This is a misguided belief. Understanding how to build a better world begins, and ends, with understanding the societies which inhabit it.Fayola Helen Jacobs, Assistant Professor of urban planning, University of MinnesotaCandis Callison, Associate professor, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, and Institute for Critical Indigenous Studies, University of British ColumbiaElizabeth Marino, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249022024-03-07T22:03:41Z2024-03-07T22:03:41ZFlood risk mapping is a public good, so why the public resistance in Canada? Lessons from Nova Scotia<p>Flood risk maps are an essential public good. Indeed, many countries like the <a href="https://flood-map-for-planning.service.gov.uk/">United Kingdom already offer flood risk mapping</a>.</p>
<p>Canada committed to a public flood risk mapping portal in the <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap4-en.html#Raising%20Awareness%20of%20Flood%20Risks">2023 budget</a>. However, despite the <a href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/impacts/climate-water-is-the-new-fire">increasing frequency and impact of large, catastrophic floods</a>, we still have a sparse patchwork of flood risk maps at municipal and provincial scale. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://floodsmartcanada.ca/floodplain-maps/">flood mapping that does exist</a> is hard to find, of uncertain quality and currency, and often <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5206284/bad-flood-map-canada/">difficult for non-experts to understand and apply</a>. </p>
<p>The unacknowledged reason why there is a lack of flood risk mapping in Canada is because such maps generally face public resistance. Indeed, it is not uncommon in Canada to see flood or wetland mapping <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-withdraws-30-municipalities-from-contested-flood-zone-maps-1.4509236">withdrawn or modified</a> because of public pressure. </p>
<p>I led two survey-based studies recently with former graduate student Samantha Howard and post-doctoral fellow Brooke McWherter to understand how people in flood-prone areas of Nova Scotia perceive publicly available flood maps. We found wide agreement about the benefits of such maps — until we asked about the <a href="https://www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/treading-water-impact-of-catastrophic-flooding-on-canadas-housing-market/">impact on real estate value</a>. </p>
<h2>The case of Nova Scotia</h2>
<p>Nova Scotia faces some of the <a href="https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/8-0/">highest sea level rise in Canada</a> under current climate change projections. Yet last week, the Nova Scotia government <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-environment-tim-halman-climate-change-1.7125745">decided not to proceed with the long-awaited Coastal Protection Act (CPA)</a>, which had been passed with all-party assent in 2019. </p>
<p>Among other things, the act would have regulated how close people could build to the ocean based on assessments of sea level, storm projections and information about the elevation and erosion risk of each section of coast. This would have protected people and infrastructure, as well as sensitive coastal ecosystems, and left space for ocean dynamics. </p>
<p>In lieu of the act, the Nova Scotia government released a <a href="https://novascotia.ca/coastal-climate-change/">new website</a> featuring resources to help individual coastal property owners make decisions about their bit of coastline, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/municipalities-nova-scotia-coastal-protection-act-1.7021006">leaving dozens of rural coastal municipalities</a> in the lurch. One of those resources was a new <a href="https://nsgi.novascotia.ca/chm">coastal hazard map</a>. </p>
<p>The lengthy disclaimer you need to agree to before you can access the map immediately erodes its trustworthiness. Moreover, while people may trust any good news they see in its data, they may still be at risk due to the tool’s many data and design flaws. To supplement this tool, Nova Scotia has <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10317417/new-coastal-protection-plan-nova-scotia/">committed to finishing detailed flood line mapping by 2027</a>. </p>
<p>It is too soon to know how people are responding to this tool, but we know it does not take a lot of unhappy constituents to make a government nervous, especially if those constituents hold financial or political power. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-tim-halman-environment-climate-change-1.6959599">The public engagement associated with the CPA was, after all, overwhelmingly in support of proclaiming and regulating under the act</a>. Yet here we are. </p>
<h2>Drivers of resistance</h2>
<p>The first survey we ran in 2021 — through an online link sent via Canada Post to all residents in two towns in Southwestern Nova Scotia — showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">one in six people felt flood risk mapping presented too big a risk for real estate value</a>. Our second survey of about 1100 house residents around the Minas Basin, Nova Scotia, in 2022 found that <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10222/83004">one in three residents expressed concern about real estate value</a>. Both studies had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.</p>
<p>The first survey had a smaller response rate but represented the population demographics better. The second was biased toward older respondents and those with higher incomes. </p>
<p>Moving back to our original question — why doesn’t everyone see flood risk mapping as a public good?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-billion-dollar-disasters-list-shattered-the-us-record-with-28-big-weather-and-climate-disasters-amid-earths-hottest-year-on-record-220634">2023's billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth's hottest year on record</a>
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<p>We used slightly different questions in the two studies to understand the drivers of resistance to flood risk mapping based on perceived impact on real estate value. What emerged speaks to the challenge of inspiring long-term and collective thinking about climate change. </p>
<p>Firstly, being focused on oneself rather than others was a reliable predictor of resistance in both studies. </p>
<p>Resistance in the first study was associated with agreeing to the following statements: “I am not able to cope with the land changes required to deal with significant increases in flood risk at this point in my life,” and “flood management decisions I make do not have implications for others.” The latter is demonstrably untrue: shoreline armouring, for instance, can have negative effects for neighbours. In the second study, being focused on others and having descendants led to less resistance. </p>
<p>Self-orientation was a strong underlying driver of resistance. It reduced a person’s likelihood of focusing on others, the future or the biosphere. People already make decisions to suit their own situation, just as the Nova Scotia government is now <a href="https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/morning-file/the-houston-government-thinks-we-can-use-an-app-to-ward-off-storm-damage-and-sea-level-rise-individually-we-cant/#N1">encouraging coastal landowners to do</a>. Yet in these kinds of scenarios, collective and ecological interests are forgotten.</p>
<p>Secondly, the more vulnerable a person felt to flood risk, the more likely they were to oppose maps that would allow others to see their flood risk. This variable was only a strong signal of resistance in the second study when we used a combination of flood likelihood and vulnerability to measure it. This might also explain why resistance was twice as high in the 2022 survey than the one in 2021. It could be a regional difference based on actual differences in risk, or differences in survey method and thus respondent population, but it could also reflect increasing flood frequency and severity.</p>
<p>The second survey was still in the field when <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/weather-snoddon-fiona-recap-1.6976249">Hurricane Fiona</a> hit Atlantic Canada. This timing suggests that instead of becoming more open to climate adaptation information like flood maps as flooding events occur, we might become less open as we seek to protect the value of our biggest investments: our homes. </p>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>A clue to the path ahead may be found in our first study, where <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">those who had previously seen a flood map for their region</a> were slightly less likely to be resistant to public flood risk maps. This might indicate that such resistance is mostly borne of fear of the unknown. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wetlands-are-superheroes-expert-sets-out-how-they-protect-people-and-places-221995">Wetlands are superheroes: expert sets out how they protect people and places</a>
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<p>We urgently need high quality, public flood risk maps that the government stands by (including with planning regulations). Then we can focus on rethinking what it means to live a good coastal life in the face of climate change, and how we collectively support those who may face decreases in home or land value.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Sherren or her trainees received funding for this work from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the Nova Scotia Government. </span></em></p>Public concerns for real estate value, and a focus on the self, make flood risk maps unpopular. However, these concerns should not dissuade governments from providing resources we can all trust.Kate Sherren, Professor, School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249232024-03-06T21:23:18Z2024-03-06T21:23:18ZSEC approves first US climate disclosure rules: Why the requirements are much weaker than planned and what they mean for companies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580240/original/file-20240306-25-rfxv2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1958%2C11%2C5185%2C3482&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Companies face new rules for disclosing their climate-related risks.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/panoramic-aerial-shot-of-steaming-oil-refinery-royalty-free-image/908141180">halbergman/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After two years of intense public debate, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the nation’s <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/33-11275-fact-sheet.pdf">first national climate disclosure rules</a> on March 6, 2024, setting out requirements for publicly listed companies to report their climate-related risks and in some cases their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>The new rules are much weaker than <a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-proposes-far-reaching-climate-disclosure-rules-for-companies-heres-where-the-rules-may-be-vulnerable-to-legal-challenges-179534">those originally proposed</a>. Significantly, the SEC dropped a controversial plan to require companies to report Scope 3 emissions – emissions generated throughout the company’s supply chain and customers’ use of its products.</p>
<p>The rules do require larger companies to disclose Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which are emissions from their operations and energy use. But those disclosures are required only to the extent that the company believes the information would be financially “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.12b-2#:%7E:text=The%20term%20%E2%80%9Cmaterial%2C%E2%80%9D%20when,or%20sell%20the%20securities%20registered.">material</a>” to a reasonable investor’s decision making.</p>
<p>More broadly, the new rules require publicly listed companies to disclose climate-related risks that are likely to have a material impact on their business, as well as disclose how they are managing those risks and any related corporate targets.</p>
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<p>After announcing its initial proposal in 2022, the SEC received a <a href="https://www.sec.gov/comments/climate-disclosure/cll12.htm">staggering number of comments</a> from experts, companies and the public – about 24,000 of them, the most ever received for an SEC rule. The comments reflected both strong public interest in being informed about corporate climate-risk exposures and greenhouse gas emissions and also significant pushback, particularly over how much the rules would cost companies. Several Republican state attorneys general <a href="https://ago.wv.gov/Documents/Q0658792.pdf">threatened to sue</a>. </p>
<p>In response to the comments, the commissioners took their time to adjust the disclosure requirements, but the <a href="https://thehill.com/business/4513407-nine-states-file-legal-challenge-to-sec-climate-disclosure-rule/">legal challenges may not be over</a>.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://warrington.ufl.edu/directory/person/7627/">specialize in sustainable finance and corporate governance</a> and have been following the SEC’s climate disclosure plans. Here are some of the major issues that led to this change and the implications of the new disclosure rules as they phase in starting in 2025.</p>
<h2>The rule’s unequal cost to companies</h2>
<p>The most important reason for adding climate disclosure rules, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-remarks-ceres-investor-briefing-041222">as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has noted</a>, is that climate-related risks and greenhouse gas emissions appear to be financially material information demanded by investors. </p>
<p>Indeed, for the past several years, large institutional investors have been vocal about the need for more transparency and consistency in corporate climate-risk disclosures.</p>
<p>As the SEC has often emphasized, most large companies already disclose some of this information voluntarily in their sustainability <a href="https://www.pwc.com/sk/en/environmental-social-and-corporate-governance-esg/esg-reporting.html">or ESG reports</a>, which often are published alongside their annual reports.</p>
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<p>Since investors seem to demand this information, and many companies are voluntarily providing it, the SEC and proponents argued that it would be <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-remarks-ceres-investor-briefing-041222">sensible to mandate some consistency</a> in disclosures.</p>
<p>However, much of the debate around the new disclosure rule has focused on whether it passes the cost-benefit smell test. In other words, would the compliance cost borne by firms potentially outweigh the financial benefits of mandated disclosures of climate risks and emissions that investors might value?</p>
<p>The compliance costs of federal disclosure requirements have been estimated to be substantial. When the SEC first proposed the rule in 2022, the commission’s own estimates implied that disclosure-related <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fight-brews-over-cost-of-sec-climate-change-rules-11652779802">compliance costs would nearly double</a> for the average publicly listed company.</p>
<p>Comments on the rule have since pointed out that <a href="https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-10-22/s71022-20132304-302836.pdf">there are also likely to be even greater indirect costs</a> related to adjustments that companies might have to make in how they conduct their operations. These costs might also have broader implications for employment in certain jobs and sectors.</p>
<p>Given that many smaller listed companies do not have voluntary disclosure practices in place, the burden is also expected to hit companies unequally, disproportionately affecting smaller companies while large corporations see little impact.</p>
<h2>Measuring greenhouse emissions isn’t simple</h2>
<p>Another practical problem lies in enforcing consistent measurement of emissions and climate-risk exposure.</p>
<p>International groups such as the <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/">Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures</a> and the <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board/">International Sustainability Standards Board</a> have provided reporting standards and guidelines. But the measurements themselves are still subject to estimation and collection problems that might vary across industries and activities.</p>
<p>Moreover, estimating Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions separately presents significant challenges.</p>
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<img alt="Lists of examples of Scope 1, 2, 3 emissions sources with an illustration of a factory in the center" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">What Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions involve.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/why-companies-should-be-required-to-disclose-their-scope-3-emissions/">Chester Hawkins/Center for American Progress</a></span>
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<p>In particular, the difficulty of measuring a company’s indirect emissions from its supply chain – Scope 3 emissions – exponentially compounds the estimation problem. Reporting Scope 3 emissions also opens a floodgate of legal issues, as many smaller organizations in a large company’s value chain might have no legal obligation to disclose their own emissions.</p>
<p>The backlash over the challenges inherent in measuring Scope 3 emissions led to the commission’s decision to pare back that part of its proposed rules.</p>
<p>Many companies will also likely have to outsource the estimation and quantification of emissions and climate risks to third-party companies, where there have been concerns about higher costs, conflicts of interest and greenwashing.</p>
<h2>How SEC stacks up to California, EU rules</h2>
<p>The SEC is not the first to adopt climate disclosure rules.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2023/12/15/a-comparative-analysis-of-the-secs-climate-disclosure-proposal/">similar rule went into effect in the European Union</a> in January 2024. </p>
<p>California has <a href="https://theconversation.com/exxon-apple-and-other-corporate-giants-will-have-to-disclose-all-their-emissions-under-californias-new-climate-laws-that-will-have-a-global-impact-214630">an even more stringent rule</a>, signed into law in October 2023. It will require both publicly listed and privately held firms to fully and unconditionally disclose all of Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions when it goes into effect in 2026 and 2027. Since California is among the world’s largest economies, its regulations are already expected to have wide effects on corporations around the world.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">SEC Chairman Gary Gensler discusses what the SEC has to do with climate change.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Hardcore <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/sec-climate-rules-risk-legal-battle-with-environmental-groups">proponents of the SEC rule</a> who wanted California-level disclosures across the board argue that Scope 3 emissions need to be disclosed given that they compose the largest fraction of all carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Skeptics of the rule, including two of the five SEC commissioners, question whether there needs to be any rule at all if things are inevitably watered down anyway. </p>
<p>Given the recent conservative <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/the-latest-dirty-word-in-corporate-america-esg-9c776003">backlash against companies focusing on ESG</a> issues and the ensuing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3ce06a6f-f0e3-4f70-a078-82a6c265ddc2">retrenchment by several institutional investors</a> from their previous climate commitments, it will be interesting to see how the new corporate climate disclosures will actually affect investors’ and corporations’ decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sehoon Kim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate disclosure rules are meant to help investors understand their risks, but they come with costs for companies, as a finance scholar explains.Sehoon Kim, Assistant Professor of Finance, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223612024-03-06T21:16:57Z2024-03-06T21:16:57ZCampus garden initiatives can help grow the next generation of environmental change-makers<p>No longer a problem of the future, the climate crisis is now driving devastating real-world impacts <a href="https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/headline-statements/">here in Canada</a> and worldwide. </p>
<p>For many Canadians, one of the most visible climate impacts is on the availability and cost of the food we eat as climate change, global crises and profit-driven food companies have combined to drive food insecurity. The agricultural sector is simultaneously a <a href="https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-11/farming-future-agriculture-climate-change-canadian-prairies.pdf">major contributor</a> to Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and itself highly vulnerable to climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-cost-of-food-is-far-higher-than-what-you-spend-at-the-checkout-counter-217883">The true cost of food is far higher than what you spend at the checkout counter</a>
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<p>Amid this crisis, students are sowing seeds of change on university campuses across the country. </p>
<h2>Transformative learning and action</h2>
<p>Student-led food initiatives like <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/education/resources/facilities-equipment-online-tools/communitygarden">campus gardens</a>, <a href="https://involvement.mcgill.ca/organization/machappybelly">food waste diversion projects</a>, and <a href="https://cultivaction.ca/">community food security partnerships</a> are on the rise and are a proven way of localizing climate action and transforming food systems.</p>
<p>Given the sheer scale and complexity of the climate and food security crises, it can be tempting to doubt just how much impact these small-scale campus initiatives can have. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2015.1130764">Researchers</a> have even criticized student gardens for entrenching shallow and depoliticized understandings of the food system among participants. After all, the GHG emissions saved by growing vegetables in one garden plot or setting up a compost program are minuscule compared to the many hundred million tons of emissions attributed to corporations.</p>
<p>While student-led initiatives may not directly solve the crises we face, we found they can transform students’ mindsets and develop their skills and confidence as agents of larger-scale change. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1230787">Our research</a> with McGill University students participating in student-led campus- and community-based initiatives shows how these activities can support transformative opportunities for learning about, and acting on, food security and climate change.</p>
<p>Students have <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003000396">long reported</a> that education about food and environmental issues like climate change feels abstract and disempowering within the confines of classroom walls. </p>
<p>The lack of real-world engagement makes it challenging for learners to discern how and where they can contribute to building solutions. Student-led food initiatives are one way that students engage with these issues through experiential learning.</p>
<h2>Our findings</h2>
<p>We found that initiatives that only focus on the technical or scientific aspects of food security and climate change have limited educational impact on student participants. Rather, building critical and transformative understandings of food systems in students appears to hinge on a few key practices that some, but not all, student-led initiatives address.</p>
<p><strong>1 - Learning and acting beyond the classroom</strong> </p>
<p>Through hands-on learning students gain opportunities to “learn by doing,” either through course-based or extracurricular activities. This approach is especially effective when education transcends campus boundaries through partnerships with local communities and community organizations. </p>
<p>When immersed in hands-on and collaborative experiences with communities, students demonstrated new capacities to collectively act in small ways on large-scale issues. Connecting with partners in school and community gardens, for example, allowed students to grapple with complex issues on tangible scales and foster a deeper understanding of the challenges at hand.</p>
<p><strong>2 - Centring equity and justice</strong> </p>
<p>Building on our insights about learning in hands-on collaborations, we found that working with equity and justice-oriented partners deepened student engagement even further. For instance, collaboration with local food banks called upon students to observe, interact with, and reflect on community food insecurity and injustice, which they otherwise may not encounter within campus confines. </p>
<p>This direct engagement with food system realities nurtured a more complex, holistic and critical understanding of food systems issues among participants. It also inspired hope and confidence within students, motivating them to engage in further action.</p>
<p><strong>3 - Engaging with peers across boundaries</strong> </p>
<p>Our research found that student-led initiatives act as important spaces for social engagement and learning between students, creating opportunities for meaningful dialogue across academic disciplines. Social bonds were also important for motivating and strengthening collective action among students, often evoking feelings of hope. These feelings stand in stark contrast to the despair and discouragement reported by students exposed to conventional “doom-and-gloom” environmental education. </p>
<p>For example, in developing a workshop for a local food bank that connected composting in the community garden with climate change, students studying education and environment exchanged new understandings of the connections between climate, food and educational systems.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Students and staff from McGill University discuss campus-based sustainable garden initiatives.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Supporting student learning</h2>
<p>With the impacts of climate change only projected to grow in the years to come, educational institutions urgently need to step up to the scale and scope of the challenge. </p>
<p>Our findings show how investing in hands-on, justice-oriented and boundary-spanning learning opportunities helps to drive transformative learning and can nurture students as the next generation of change-makers. Universities can do this by supporting student-led initiatives through the allocation of funds, space or mentorship to these efforts, or by expanding experiential learning within academic courses and programs. </p>
<p>Strengthening university-community partnerships, particularly with organizations working to advance climate, social and food justice, is critical to both types of investment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows how university garden initiatives can help drive transformative change and nurture a new generation of environmental and socially conscious change-makers.Blane Harvey, Associate professor, Department of Integrated Studies in Education, McGill UniversityEmily Diane Sprowls, Faculty Lecturer, Science Education, McGill UniversityZoë Deskin, Master's Student, Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244952024-03-05T21:19:45Z2024-03-05T21:19:45ZThe Anthropocene is not an epoch − but the age of humans is most definitely underway<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580004/original/file-20240305-26-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C180%2C5727%2C3599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Human influence on the climate started even before the Industrial Revolution.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/factoryscape-in-the-potteries-smoke-from-chimneys-in-the-news-photo/1036135896?adppopup=true">Print Collector/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When people talk about the “Anthropocene,” they typically picture the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-anthropocene-a-very-short-introduction-9780198792987?cc=us&lang=en&">vast impact human societies are having</a> on the planet, from <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">rapid declines in biodiversity</a> to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">increases in Earth’s temperature</a> by burning fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Such massive planetary changes did not begin all at once at any single place or time.</p>
<p>That’s why <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">it was controversial</a> when, after over a decade of study and debate, an international committee of scientists – <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">the Anthropocene Working Group</a> – proposed to mark the Anthropocene as an epoch in the <a href="https://stratigraphy.org/chart#latest-version">geologic time scale</a> starting precisely in 1952. The marker was radioactive fallout from hydrogen bomb tests.</p>
<p>On March 4, 2024, the commission responsible for recognizing time units within our most recent period of geologic time – the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/">Subcommission on Quarternary Stratigraphy</a> – rejected that proposal, with 12 of 18 members voting no. These are the scientists most expert at reconstructing Earth’s history from the evidence in rocks. They determined that adding an Anthropocene Epoch – and terminating the Holocene Epoch – was not supported by the standards used to define epochs.</p>
<p>To be clear, this vote has no bearing on the overwhelming evidence that human societies are indeed transforming this planet.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://ges.umbc.edu/ellis/">an ecologist who studies global change</a>, I served on the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">Anthropocene Working Group</a> from its start in 2009 until 2023. <a href="https://anthroecology.org/why-i-resigned-from-the-anthropocene-working-group/">I resigned</a> because I was convinced that this proposal defined the Anthropocene so narrowly that it would damage broader scientific and public understanding. </p>
<p>By tying the start of the human age to such a recent and devastating event – nuclear fallout – this proposal risked sowing confusion about the deep history of how humans are transforming the Earth, from climate change and biodiversity losses to pollution by plastics and tropical deforestation.</p>
<h2>The original idea of the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>In the years since the term Anthropocene was coined by Nobel Prize-winning <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/15445/2023/">atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen</a> in 2000, it has increasingly defined our times as an age of human-caused planetary transformation, from climate change to biodiversity loss, plastic pollution, megafires and much more.</p>
<p>Crutzen originally proposed that the Anthropocene began in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/415023a">latter part of the 18th century</a>, as a product of the Industrial age. He also noted that setting a more precise start date would be “<a href="https://www.mpic.de/3865097/the-anthropocene">arbitrary</a>.” </p>
<p>According to geologists, we humans have been living in the Holocene Epoch for about 11,700 years, since the end of the last ice age. </p>
<p>Human societies began influencing Earth’s biodiversity and climate through agriculture <a href="https://cligs.vt.edu/blog/climate-change--a-new-twist-on-a-very-old-story.html">thousands of years ago</a>. These changes began to accelerate about five centuries ago with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-began-with-species-exchange-between-old-and-new-worlds-38674">colonial collision of the old and new worlds</a>. And, as Crutzen noted, Earth’s climate really began to change with the increasing use of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Europe/The-Industrial-Revolution">fossil fuels in the Industrial Revolution</a> that began in the late 1700s.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A chart reflecting timing of the ‘Anthropocene Event’ shows how various human activities have affected the planet over mlllennia in the recent geologic time scale. Click the image to enlarge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">Philip Gibbard, et al., 2022</a></span>
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<h2>The Anthropocene as an epoch</h2>
<p>The rationale for proposing to define an Anthropocene Epoch starting around 1950 came from overwhelming evidence that many of the most consequential changes of the human age shifted upward dramatically about that time in a so-called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785">Great Acceleration” identified by climate scientist Will Steffen</a> and others. </p>
<p>Radioisotopes like plutonium from hydrogen bomb tests conducted around this time left clear traces in soils, sediments, trees, corals and other potential geological records across the planet. The plutonium peak in the sediments of Crawford Lake in Ontario, Canada – <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">chosen as the “golden spike</a>” for determining the start of the Anthropocene Epoch – is well marked in the lake bed’s exceptionally clear sediment record. </p>
<h2>The Anthropocene Epoch is dead; long live the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>So why was the Anthropocene Epoch rejected? And what happens now?</p>
<p>The proposal to add an Anthropocene Epoch to the geological time scale was rejected for a variety of reasons, none of them related to the fact that human societies are changing this planet. In fact, the opposite is true. </p>
<p>If there is one main reason why geologists rejected this proposal, it is because its recent date and shallow depth are too narrow to encompass the deeper evidence of human-caused planetary change. As geologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa7297">Bill Ruddiman and others wrote in Science Magazine in 2015</a>, “Does it really make sense to define the start of a human-dominated era millennia after most forests in arable regions had been cut for agriculture?”</p>
<p>Discussions of an Anthropocene Epoch aren’t over yet. But it is very unlikely that there will be an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration anytime soon.</p>
<p>The lack of a formal definition of an Anthropocene Epoch will not be a problem for science. </p>
<p>A scientific definition of the Anthropocene is already widely available in the form of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">the Anthropocene Event</a>, which basically defines Anthropocene <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104340">in simple geological terms</a> as “a complex, transformative, and ongoing event analogous to the Great Oxidation Event and others in the geological record.”</p>
<p>So, despite the “no” vote on the Anthropocene Epoch, the Anthropocene will continue to be as useful as it has been for more than 20 years in stimulating discussions and research into the nature of human transformation of this planet. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to clarify that a new attempt at an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration is unlikely soon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erle C. Ellis is a former member of the Anthropocene Working Group of the International Commission on Stratigraphy. He is a member of the American Association of Geographers.</span></em></p>Scientists have been debating the start of the Anthropocene Epoch for 15 years. I was part of those discussions, and I agree with the vote rejecting it.Erle C. Ellis, Professor of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214682024-03-05T20:11:08Z2024-03-05T20:11:08ZIt’s time we include cities and regions as equal partners in global climate negotiations<p>Last year’s UN climate conference (COP28) made history in Dubai by introducing — for the very first time — language on “<a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/636584">transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems</a>” in the final version of the negotiated text.</p>
<p>While significant, this achievement was not the only notable event of last year’s climate talks.</p>
<p>COP28 was also the occasion of the first <a href="https://www.unep.org/gef/events/conference/cop28-local-climate-action-summit">Local Climate Action Summit</a> (LCAS) which brought together over 250 subnational and local leaders. As part of this program a delegation of mayors and governors from around the world took the stage alongside world leaders.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/access-and-exclusion-what-cop28-revealed-about-the-dynamics-of-global-climate-diplomacy-220198">Access and exclusion: What COP28 revealed about the dynamics of global climate diplomacy</a>
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<p>The purpose of LCAS was to demonstrate how subnational authorities around the world are already taking action to bolster climate mitigation and adaptation, often surpassing the ambition of national governments. Such recognition is long overdue.</p>
<p>Subnational and local authorities have historically been grouped in with civil society and private interests as “observers” at COP negotiations. Such a categorization dismisses the fundamental role subnational governments play both in implementing a just transition and in managing humanity’s lines of defence against the climate crisis. </p>
<p>It is high time that subnational voices be heard loud and clear, alongside national governments, within the United Nations’ Conference of the Parties framework.</p>
<h2>Broadening diplomacy</h2>
<p>Subnational climate summits are by no means a novelty of contemporary global governance.</p>
<p>Conferences of cities and regions organized by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020929261">advocacy networks</a> such as <a href="https://iclei.org/about_iclei_2/">Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)</a>, <a href="https://regions4.org/about-us/regions4/">Regions4</a>, <a href="https://uclg.org/">United Cities and Local Governments (UCLG)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.theclimategroup.org/under2-coalition">Under2 Coalition</a> have been around for decades. However, LCAS is the first gathering of its type to be included in the official program of a COP. This is clear progress.</p>
<p>LCAS sent the message that the parallel system of <a href="https://cris.unu.edu/paradiplomacy-cities-and-states-global-players">subnational diplomacy that has been developing over the past three decades</a> ought to be fully recognized within global governance. Indeed, our climate goals will only be reached if subnational and national governments begin working together ensuring that policy expertise and financial resources are shared among different levels of governance, <a href="https://unhabitat.org/local-action-for-global-goals-an-opportunity-for-enhancing-nationally-determined-contributions">including in national reporting to the UN</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A recording of presentations as part of the LCAS.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The ideas presented at the LCAS forum were an exciting vision for the future, however, more work must be done to make this vision a reality. </p>
<p>Specifically, subnational governments need more direct access to UN institutions and a greater ability to weigh in on global policymaking and intergovernmental negotiations as part of a broader effort to <a href="https://iclei.org/press_release/cop28-a-turning-point-for-cities-and-regions-in-climate-action-leadership/">“formalize subnational voices” in the agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>. </p>
<p>These actions must be done in recognition of the <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/c5084924-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/c5084924-en">central role subnational governments play in implementing carbon reduction and climate change adaptation and resilience policies</a>.</p>
<h2>On the frontlines</h2>
<p>Subnational and local governments are “<a href="https://www.cities-and-regions.org/wp-content/uploads/lgma_towardscop28_final.pdf">key enablers of a just transition</a>” on the frontlines of the climate crisis with often greater legitimacy and competence to oversee context specific environmental transitions well-attuned to local needs. </p>
<p>It is worth remembering that <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/cities/cities-and-climate-change">cities emit up to 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions</a> and often serve as the economic engines of their respective nations. Cities therefore have a critical role to play in reducing energy demands and consumption. These are ambitions which can be achieved by incorporating densification, climate adaptation, public transportation and building decarbonization into future urban planning.</p>
<p>Regional governments constitute a pivotal link between local and central authorities and are often in a better jurisdictional position than national governments to lead the environmental transition. Regional governments already lead by spearheading efforts on <a href="https://regions4.org/project/regions-adapt/">climate adaptation</a> and <a href="https://regions4.org/news/launch-of-regionsadapt-progress-report-2023/">climate justice</a> — jointly tackling the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss.</p>
<p>Ultimately, we must move beyond understanding subnational governments as “<a href="https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1445">non-state actors</a>” — alongside businesses, NGOs and private individuals — and begin viewing them as state actors in their own right. This means giving municipal and regional authorities more opportunities to influence national and global environmental outcomes.</p>
<p>The multilateral declaration that created the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships at COP28 — endorsed as of now by 72 sovereign states — stimulates such progress, by encouraging national governments to create “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-uae-coalition-for-high-ambition-multilevel-partnerships-for-climate-action">inclusive institutional and informal processes to enable subnational governments to contribute to further enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions</a>.”</p>
<h2>Subnational leadership</h2>
<p>Luckily, the gradual recognition and inclusion of subnational authorities is underway and the trends are only accelerating. Meanwhile, some cities and regions have already leapt ahead by demonstrating path-breaking leadership.</p>
<p>Some, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2021.2002702">Québec and California, have even become fully autonomous actors of global environmental governance</a>. California was a leading force in the Subnational Climate Action Leaders’ Exchange launched at COP27 as a forum for incubating new ideas. One of these ideas, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/lowering-organic-waste-methane-initiative-low-methane/">LOW-Methane initiative</a>, was later launched by a coalition of international partners at COP28.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/press-release/62299/as-quebec-takes-on-co-presidency-of-the-beyond-oil-and-gas-alliance-climate-organizations-present-their-expectations-for-what-this-new-role-means/">Québec was appointed to the co-presidency of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance</a>. The BOGA is a coalition of sovereign and subnational states committed to banning fossil fuel investments and production on their territory. Québec <a href="https://www.economie.gouv.qc.ca/en/outside-quebec/ban-on-petroleum-exploration-and-production">first accomplished this goal in 2022</a>, making it the first jurisdiction in North America (and one of the first in the world) to do so.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-the-scientific-basis-for-a-rapid-fossil-fuel-phase-out-219382">COP28: The scientific basis for a rapid fossil fuel phase out</a>
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<p>Such transformational subnational leadership raises important questions about the validity of continuing nation-state monopoly in international affairs, especially in this evolving era of global transformations and ecological crisis.</p>
<p>It is crucial that local and regional governments <a href="https://www.global-taskforce.org/organized-constituency-pledge-achieve-2030-agenda-and-reformed-multilateral-system-sdg-summit">be formally awarded a distinct status and role</a> in global governance institutions, differentiating them from <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview/admitted-ngos#Constituencies-in-the-UNFCCC">other “non-state” stakeholders</a>. </p>
<p>The creation of the <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/personnel-appointments/2023-10-06/secretary-general%E2%80%99s-advisory-group-local-and-regional-governments-scroll-down-for-french-and-spanish-versions">Secretary General’s Advisory Group on Local and Regional Governments</a> undoubtedly represents a step in the right direction. However, much remains to be done to meaningfully reform multilateralism in the lead-up to the UN <a href="https://www.un.org/en/common-agenda/summit-of-the-future">Summit of the Future</a> next September and COP29 in December 2024.</p>
<p>Simply put, subnational and local authorities must be brought into the room where diplomacy and global governance takes place. An ambition which entails a critical reflection on the inherent interconnections between local, subnational and national activities.</p>
<p>Including the subnational and local levels is not just a good idea, it is a crucial stepping stone in achieving global climate goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjolaine Lamontagne receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Vanier Scholar) and the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Berthelet receives funding from the Centre d'étude des mouvements sociaux (CEMS - CNRS/EHESS), the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) and the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM). </span></em></p>Subnational authorities are leading the charge on a just transition and dealing with climate change impacts. It is time for this key role to be reflected in international climate negotiations.Marjolaine Lamontagne, Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations (Global Environmental Governance and Diplomacy), McGill UniversityCharles Berthelet, Ph.D. Candidate in Philosophy, Political Studies, and Sociology, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248692024-03-05T15:02:19Z2024-03-05T15:02:19ZArctic rivers face big changes with a warming climate, permafrost thaw and an accelerating water cycle − the effects will have global consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579392/original/file-20240303-24-mmw6cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1333%2C9000%2C6157&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Water from the Mackenzie River, seen from a satellite, carries silt and nutrients from land to the Arctic Ocean.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90703/mackenzie-meets-beaufort">Jesse Allen/NASA Earth Observatory</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world.</p>
<p>Rivers represent the land branch of the earth’s hydrological cycle. As rain and snow fall, rivers transport freshwater runoff along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon, to coastal areas. With the Arctic now warming nearly <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world-new-research-188474">four times faster</a> than the rest of the world, the region <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1">is seeing more precipitation</a> and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows major rivers and their water sheds, primarily in Russia, Alaska and Canada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Major river basins of the Arctic region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/detect/land-river.shtml">NOAA Arctic Report Card</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We’re climate scientists who study how warming is influencing the water cycle and ecosystems. <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024">In a new study</a> using historical data and sophisticated computer models of Earth’s climate and hydrology, we explored how climate change is altering Arctic rivers. </p>
<p>We found that thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers. These changes will affect coastal regions, the Arctic Ocean and, potentially, the North Atlantic, as well as the climate.</p>
<h2>Thawing permafrost: Big changes in Arctic soils</h2>
<p>Permafrost thaw is one of the most consequential changes that the Arctic is experiencing as temperatures rise. </p>
<p>Permafrost is soil that has been <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/permafrost">frozen for at least two years</a> and often for millennia. It covers approximately 8.8 million square miles (about 22.8 million square kilometers) in Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, but that area is shrinking as the permafrost thaws.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people stand on a cliff with permafrost evident." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usgeologicalsurvey/12116729705">Brandt Meixell/USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where permafrost is found, both in ground and below the ocean." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Known permafrost zones in the Northern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.grida.no/resources/13519">GRID-Arendal/Nunataryuk</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Historically, most water going into Arctic rivers flows atop frozen permafrost soils in spring. Scientists call this “overland runoff.” </p>
<p>However, our results suggest that as warming continues, an increasing fraction of annual river flow will come from under the surface, through thawed soils in the degrading permafrost. As the overall flow increases with more precipitation, as much as 30% more of it could be moving underground by the end of this century as subsurface pathways expand.</p>
<p>When water flows through soil, it picks up different chemicals and metals. As a result, water coming into rivers will likely have a different chemical character. For example, it may carry more nutrients and dissolved carbon that can affect coastal zones and the global climate. The fate of that mobilized carbon is an active area of study.</p>
<p>More carbon in river water could end up “outgassed” upon reaching placid coastal waters, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, which further drives <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338">climate warming</a>. The thaw is also revealing other nasty surprises, such as the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/18/arctic-permafrost-thawing-deadly-pathogens/71581668007/">emergence of long-frozen viruses</a>. </p>
<h2>More rain and snow, more runoff</h2>
<p>The Arctic’s water cycle is also ramping up as temperatures rise, meaning more precipitation, evaporation, plant transpiration and river discharge. This is primarily due to a warmer atmosphere’s inherent ability to hold more moisture. It’s the same reason that <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-warming-climate-can-bring-bigger-snowstorms-176201">bigger snowstorms are occurring</a> as the climate warms. </p>
<p>Our study found that the bulk of the additional precipitation will occur across far northern parts of the Arctic basin. As sea ice disappears in a warming climate, computer models agree that a more open Arctic Ocean will feed more water to the atmosphere, where it will be transported to adjacent land areas to fall as precipitation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two maps show increasing snow and rainfall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024">Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More snow in northern Alaska, Siberia and Canada will lead to more water flowing in rivers, potentially up to 25% more under a high-warming scenario based on our research. There is more carbon in the soil in northern parts of the Arctic compared with the south. With permafrost thaw, those regions will also see more water coming into rivers from below the surface, where additional soil carbon can leach into the water and become dissolved organic carbon.</p>
<p>More <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa1fe">old carbon is already showing up</a> in samples gathered from Arctic rivers, attributed to permafrost thaw. Carbon dating shows that some of this carbon has been frozen for thousands of years. </p>
<h2>Impacts will cascade through Arctic ecosystems</h2>
<p>So, what does the future hold? </p>
<p>One of the most notable changes expected involves the transport of fresh water and associated materials, such as dissolved organic carbon and heat energy, to Arctic coastal zones. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A scientist in a rain jacket and cap holds up a water sample in a jar." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael A. Rawlins</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://ble.lternet.edu/">Coastal lagoons</a> may become fresher. This change would affect organisms up and down the food chain, though <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.738363">our current understanding</a> of the potential affects of changes in fresh water and dissolved organic carbon is still murky.</p>
<p>River water will also be warmer as the climate heats up and has the potential to melt coastal sea ice earlier in the season. Scientists <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-report-card-2023-from-wildfires-to-melting-sea-ice-the-warmest-summer-on-record-had-cascading-impacts-across-the-arctic-218872">observed this in spring 2023</a>, when unusually warm water in Canada’s Mackenzie River carried heat to the Beaufort Sea, contributing to early coastal sea ice melting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite view of the Arctic coast showing a river and sea ice breaking up." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/83271/river-discharge-alters-arctic-sea-ice">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, more river water reaching the coast has the potential to freshen the Arctic Ocean, particularly along northern Eurasia, where big Russian rivers export massive amounts of fresh water each year. </p>
<p>There are concerns that <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2021/river-discharge/">rising river flows in that region</a> are influencing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the currents that circulate heat from the tropics, up along the U.S. East Coast and toward Europe. Evidence is mounting that these currents <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-atlantic-oceans-major-current-system-is-slowing-down-but-a-21st-century-collapse-is-unlikely-214647">have been slowing in recent years</a> as more fresh water enters the North Atlantic. If the circulation shuts down, it would <a href="https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-melting-glaciers-shut-down-the-gulf-stream-we-would-see-extreme-climate-change-within-decades-study-shows-222834">significantly affect temperatures</a> across North America and Europe.</p>
<p>At the coast, changing river flows will also affect the plants, animals and Indigenous populations that call the region home. For them and for the global climate, our study’s findings highlight the need to closely watch how the Arctic is being transformed and take steps to mitigate the effects.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael A. Rawlins receives funding from The Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ambarish Karmalkar receives funding from the Department of Energy and the United States Geological Survey. </span></em></p>A new study shows how thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers.Michael A. Rawlins, Associate Director, Climate System Research Center and Associate Professor of Climatology, UMass AmherstAmbarish Karmalkar, Assistant Professor of Geosciences, University of Rhode IslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247452024-03-04T19:22:07Z2024-03-04T19:22:07ZIn a dangerously warming world, we must confront the grim reality of Australia’s bushfire emissions<p>In the four years since the Black Summer bushfires, Australia has become more focused on how best to prepare for, fight and recover from these traumatic events. But one issue has largely flown under the radar: how the emissions produced by bushfires are measured and reported. </p>
<p>Fires comprised 4.8% of <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2">total global emissions in 2021</a>, producing about <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/siberia-america-wildfires-emissions-records-2021/">1.76 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023?vis=co2tot#emissions_table">exceeds the emissions</a> of almost all individual countries except the biggest emitters of China, the United States, India and Russia.</p>
<p>It’s crucial to accurately track the greenhouse gas emissions bushfires produce. However, the modelling and reporting of bushfire emissions is a complex, poorly understood area of climate science and policy. </p>
<p>The University of Tasmania recently brought together leading scientists and policymakers to discuss Australia’s measuring and reporting of bushfire emissions. The resulting <a href="https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1697841/Measuring-and-reporting-bushfire-emissions.pdf">report</a>, just released, shows where Australia must improve as we face a fiery future.</p>
<h2>Getting a read on bushfire emissions</h2>
<p>By the end of this century, the number of extreme fire events around the world is expected to increase by <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/number-wildfires-rise-50-2100-and-governments-are-not-prepared">up to 50% a year</a> as a direct result of human-caused climate change.</p>
<p>Emissions from bushfires fuels global warming – which in turn makes bushfires even more destructive. Estimating these emissions is a complicated and technical task, but it is vital to understanding Australia’s carbon footprint.</p>
<p>Australia reports on emissions from bushfires according to rules defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as part of our responsibilities under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>Countries estimate bushfire emissions in different ways. Some rely on default data provided by the UNFCCC. In contrast, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2021-volume-1.pdf">Australia’s modelling</a> combines the area of burned land with highly specific local data on the types of fuel burned (such as leaves, bark and dead wood) and the amount of <a href="https://research.csiro.au/pyropage/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2017/04/CSIRO-PyroPage-Issue-10-GHG-Emissions.pdf">different types of gas</a> these fuels emit. This makes it among the most sophisticated approaches in the world.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-fire-alert-has-knocked-australians-out-of-complacency-under-climate-change-catastrophic-bushfires-can-strike-any-time-224636">Victoria's fire alert has knocked Australians out of complacency. Under climate change, catastrophic bushfires can strike any time</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>More transparency is needed</h2>
<p>Australia’s modelling may be sophisticated but it can also be confusing – even for those who follow climate policy closely. One reason is the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2021-volume-1.pdf">complex way</a> we differentiate between “natural” fires (those beyond human control) and “anthropogenic” or human-caused fires such as controlled fuel-reduction burns. </p>
<p>Emissions from natural fires are reported to the UNFCCC, but do not initially count towards Australia’s net emissions calculations. This is consistent with <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_01_Ch1_Introduction.pdf">guidance</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p>
<p>However, we believe that to improve transparency and accountability, the federal government should work with the states and territories to provide a separate breakdown of natural and human-caused fire emissions. This data should be made publicly available to provide a clearer picture of bushfire emissions and the impact of climate change on large fires.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-is-a-chemical-reaction-heres-why-australia-is-supremely-suited-to-it-217275">Fire is a chemical reaction. Here's why Australia is supremely suited to it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Where we must improve</h2>
<p>As mentioned above, emissions from natural fires do not initially count towards Australia’s net calculations. Consistent with other countries, our modelling assumes that emissions will be offset after the fires because forest regrowth captures carbon from the atmosphere. </p>
<p>This approach is based on current scientific evidence. For example, within two years of the Black Summer fires, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-22/are-megafires-contributing-to-climate-change/103219876">80% of the burned area</a> was almost fully recovered. </p>
<p>If monitoring of a fire site shows regrowth has not fully offset emissions after 15 years, the difference is retrospectively added to Australia’s net emissions for the year of the original fire.</p>
<p>But this approach may soon need to change. That’s because research <a href="https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13021-023-00231-3">sugests</a> we cannot assume forests will recover quickly after bushfires. As bushfires become more frequent and intense, they are more likely to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12433">irrevocably change</a> landscapes. Bushfires are also more likely to occur in areas that are not adapted to fire and recover poorly – such as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2016.19308">Tasmania’s World Heritage-listed northwest</a>. </p>
<p>This has major implications for Australia’s emissions accounting.</p>
<p>Another significant gap in our modelling is the contribution of soil carbon to bushfire emissions. Large amounts of carbon are present in organic material in soil.</p>
<p>Currently, international rules do not require soil carbon emissions from fire to be estimated. This is despite emerging research showing the release of <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF22204">soil carbon</a> during bushfires in some landscapes, such as peatlands, is likely to create substantial emissions. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24668">Other research</a> suggests that depleted soil carbon can slow the recovery of forests after fire.</p>
<p>There is currently insufficient evidence to include soil carbon emissions from bushfires in Australia’s estimates, or to model the effects of soil carbon changes on forest regrowth and carbon capture. More research is urgently needed.</p>
<h2>Where to now?</h2>
<p>Australia’s approach to estimating bushfire emissions is credible and sophisticated. However, our modelling and reporting must be refined as technology improves and the climate changes. </p>
<p>Australia is a fire-prone continent. Our bushfire emissions will increase unless we significantly improve our fire preparedness and management. We must also rapidly reduce emissions from other sectors, to ensure our country is playing its part in the struggle to avoid catastrophic global warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s approach to estimating bushfire emissions is credible and sophisticated. But it must be refined as technology improves and the climate changes.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLachlan Johnson, Research fellow, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231532024-03-04T18:25:48Z2024-03-04T18:25:48ZGlobal warming may be behind an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold spells<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575431/original/file-20240213-30-h2gkre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bradford-uk-02-08-2024-electronic-2423109221">bennphoto / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global warming caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is already affecting our lives. Scorching summers, more intense heatwaves, longer drought periods, more extended floods, and wilder wildfires are consequences linked to this warming.</p>
<p>One less obvious consequence of global warming is also getting growing attention from scientists: <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/extreme-cold-snaps-could-get-worse-as-climate-warms/#:%7E:text=Many%20studies%20have%20shown%20that,and%20understood%20from%20physical%20reasoning.">a potential increase</a> in the intensity and frequency of winter cold snaps in the northern hemisphere.</p>
<p>Weather phenomena like the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/26/uk-braces-for-beast-from-the-east-as-met-office-warns-of-snow">Beast from the East in winter 2018</a>, the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-texas-freeze-february-2021">cold spell of Arctic air</a> that reached as <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/17/texas-winter-storm-2021-stories/">far South as Texas in February 2021</a>, or the storm that left <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/world/europe/spain-snow-storm-filomena.html">Madrid</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2021/feb/16/unusually-heavy-snow-blankets-athens-in-pictures">Athens</a> unusually covered in snow for days in early 2021 are becoming more common.</p>
<p>Some of the mechanisms that lead to their occurrence are strengthened by global warming. Key climate mechanisms, like exchanges of energy and air masses between different altitude ranges in the atmosphere, are evolving in ways expected to cause an increase in both the intensity and duration of cold snaps. These link to the behaviour of a region in the high atmosphere called the stratosphere.</p>
<p>Winter cold snaps have major societal impacts, from direct effects on health and loss of life, to effects on transport and infrastructure, surges in energy demand and damage to agricultural resources. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Acropolis in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Acropolis in Athens covered in snow in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/athens-greece-february-16-2021-acropolis-2258307795">Savvas Karmaniolas / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This winter, we have seen these effects over large parts of Europe and the US, with flight cancellations, airport closures, road queues and drivers trapped in extreme cold temperatures. There have also been sharp increases in energy demand to cope with indoor heating, an increase in cold-related hospital admissions and the activation of services needed to assist the most vulnerable.</p>
<p>We need to develop forecasting tools that can predict these events further in advance.</p>
<h2>Polar vortex</h2>
<p>Some of these cold snaps are linked to disruptions in a seasonal atmospheric phenomenon called the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). </p>
<p>In the northern hemisphere, this vortex consists of masses of cold air centred over the north pole, surrounded by a jet of very strong westerly winds between 15-50km above ground. These spinning winds act as a wall and keep cold air confined to the Arctic region, stopping it from travelling to lower latitudes. </p>
<p>Something that can disrupt the vortex is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), when the stratosphere experiences an abrupt increase in temperature due to energy and momentum being transferred from lower to higher altitudes. </p>
<p>When a major SSW occurs, the wall of strong winds around the polar stratosphere can break, allowing cold air to escape the polar vortex and travel down to lower atmospheric altitudes and lower latitudes. When that air approaches the Earth’s surface, significant cold spells can occur.</p>
<p>Even when SSWs are not strong enough to break the vortex, they can weaken it. This can cause polar air circulation patterns to meander further south into lower latitudes, reaching populated areas of North America and Eurasia, instead of staying nearer the north pole. Those areas can then experience temperatures tens of degrees lower than their winter average.</p>
<p>Under climate change, the transfer of energy from the lowest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere to the higher stratospheric layer is changing and seems to be disrupting the polar vortex to a greater degree. A <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/1259/2023/">study has shown</a> that the strength and duration of SSWs in the stratosphere have increased over the last 40 years. This increase is also expected to result in stronger winter cold snaps at surface levels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Polar Vortex" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The polar vortex is a crucial component in cold snaps affecting the Northern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/vortex_NH.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Forecasting challenge</h2>
<p>Accurately forecasting these cold snaps is crucial for helping society prepare appropriately for them. Developing computer-based forecasting tools that reproduce realistic interactions between the lower levels of the troposphere and the stratospheric region is an essential step towards this goal.</p>
<p>To correctly simulate the behaviour of the stratosphere and how it interacts with the troposphere, forecasting tools must include realistic descriptions of the abundance and distribution of stratospheric ozone. Ozone influences the interaction of air masses outside and inside the vortex, and therefore also the transport of colder air from higher to lower altitudes.</p>
<p>However, including all the chemical processes that ozone is involved in, at the resolution needed to predict these weather events, is prohibitive in terms of the computing power needed. This is even truer if we want to predict events one season ahead. </p>
<p>My research looks at ways to improve forecasting models to better capture the type of stratospheric behaviour that leads to these cold spells. To do this I have developed alternatives that can realistically simulate processes in the stratosphere, including aspects of ozone chemistry, using less computing power. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/4277/2022/">study I led</a>, we used these alternatives to simulate interactions between the ozone layer, temperature and solar radiation in the global computer model used to produce some of the best weather forecasts in the world.</p>
<p>The experiments we did with this model showed that including this realistic alternative representation of stratospheric ozone led to improvements in simulations of temperature distribution in the stratosphere. This means that it can help provide useful information about triggers of cold spells like SSWs.</p>
<p>Developing and using these alternatives in climate modelling is a significant milestone towards what we call seamless prediction: using the same computer modelling tools to predict both weather and climate. This allows for a more accurate establishment of causal links between climate change and extreme weather events.</p>
<p>A question many may be wondering is if this extreme cold could be counteracting global warming. Unfortunately, not. While this winter has brought days of extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfall in the northern hemisphere, the current summer in the southern hemisphere has seen some of the hottest days on record for populated areas of Australia, with temperatures of around 50ºC.</p>
<p>Global warming makes extreme weather more extreme, and scientific studies are starting to provide proof that this also applies to extreme winter cold spells. Developing the best possible modelling tools is essential to predict the evolution of extreme weather events in the coming years so that we can be better prepared for them.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatriz Monge-Sanz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cold snaps can affect everyday services and infrastructure, putting lives at risk.Beatriz Monge-Sanz, Senior Researcher, Department of Physics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233532024-02-29T23:00:05Z2024-02-29T23:00:05ZNot such a bright idea: cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back to space is a dangerous distraction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578498/original/file-20240228-18-s7p4c5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=131%2C0%2C5044%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Nations Environment Assembly this week <a href="https://www.un.org/en/nairobi-unis/press-releaseun-environment-assembly-opens-calls-stronger-multilateral-action">considered</a> a resolution on solar radiation modification, which refers to controversial technologies intended to mask the heating effect of greenhouse gases by reflecting some sunlight back to space. </p>
<p>Proponents argue the technologies will limit the effects of climate change. In reality, this type of “geoengineering” risks further destabilising an already deeply disturbed climate system. What’s more, its full impacts <a href="https://global-tipping-points.org/section3/3-0-governance-of-earth-system-tipping-points/3-2-prevention-of-earth-system-tipping-processes/3-2-3-prevention-approaches-and-institutional-options/3-2-3-4-solar-geoengineering/">cannot be known</a> until after deployment. </p>
<p>The draft resolution initially <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/02/15/switzerland-proposes-first-un-expert-group-on-solar-geoengineering/">called for</a> the convening of an expert group to examine the benefits and risks of solar radiation modification. The motion was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/safety-fears-stall-un-bid-examine-sun-blocking-climate-change-tech-2024-02-29/#:%7E:text=NAIROBI%2C%20Feb%2029%20(Reuters),about%20health%20and%20environmental%20risks.">withdrawn</a> on Thursday after no consensus could be reached on the controversial topic. </p>
<p>A notable development was a call from some Global South countries for “non-use” of solar radiation modification. We strongly support this position. Human-caused climate change is already one planetary-scale experiment too many – we don’t need another.</p>
<h2>A risky business</h2>
<p>In some circles, solar geoengineering is <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754">gaining prominence</a> as a response to the climate crisis. However, research has consistently identified potential risks posed by the technologies such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>unpredictable effects on <a href="http://www.gesamp.org/publications/high-level-review-of-a-wide-range-of-proposed-marine-geoengineering-techniques">climate and weather patterns</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-84-en.pdf">biodiversity loss</a>, especially if use of the technology was halted abruptly</p></li>
<li><p>undermining food security by, for example, reducing light and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3393062/">increasing salinity on land</a></p></li>
<li><p>the infringement of human rights <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/hr-bodies/hrc/advisory-committee/impact-of-new-technologies">across generations</a> – including, but not limited to, passing on huge risks to generations that will come after us.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Here, we discuss several examples of solar radiation modification which exemplify the threats posed by these technologies. These are also depicted in the graphic below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An infographic showing the potential unintended effects of various solar engineering methods." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576839/original/file-20240220-16-r3drad.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An infographic showing the effects of solar engineering methods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A load of hot air</h2>
<p>In April 2022, an American startup company released two weather balloons into the air from Mexico. The experiment was conducted <a href="https://time.com/6248654/mexico-geoengineering-ban-make-sunsets/">without approval</a> from Mexican authorities. </p>
<p>The intent was to cool the atmosphere by deflecting sunlight. The resulting reduction in warming would be sold for profit as “<a href="https://makesunsets.com/products/join-the-next-balloon-launch-and-cool-the-planet">cooling credits</a>” to those wanting to offset greenhouse gas pollution.</p>
<p>Appreciably cooling the climate would, in reality, require injecting <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/02/05/1087587/solar-geoengineering-could-start-soon-if-it-starts-small/">millions of metric tons of aerosols</a> into the stratosphere, using a purpose-built fleet of high-altitude aircraft. Such an undertaking would alter global wind and rainfall patterns, leading to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01606-0">more drought and cyclones</a>, exacerbating <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-dimming-the-sun-would-be-an-effective-tool-in-the-fight-against-climate-change-218670">acid rainfall</a> and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL094058">slowing ozone recovery</a>.</p>
<p>Once started, this stratospheric aerosol injection would need to be carried out continually for <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/367/2023/esd-14-367-2023.pdf">at least a century</a> to achieve the desired cooling effect. Stopping prematurely would <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0431-0">lead to</a> an unprecedented rise in global temperatures far outpacing extreme climate change scenarios.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trying-to-cool-the-earth-by-dimming-sunlight-could-be-worse-than-global-warming-175455">Trying to cool the Earth by dimming sunlight could be worse than global warming</a>
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<img alt="cracked, dry earth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578499/original/file-20240228-30-jx645r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Injecting aerosols into the atmosphere may lead to more droughts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Heads in the clouds</h2>
<p>Another solar geoengineering technology, known as marine cloud brightening, seeks to make low-lying clouds more reflective by spraying microscopic seawater droplets into the air. Since 2017, trials have been <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/cloud-brightening-could-save-bleached-great-barrier-reef-scientists-say-20170426-gvsfxw.html">underway on the Great Barrier Reef</a>. </p>
<p>The project is tiny in scale, and involves pumping seawater onto a boat and spraying it from nozzles towards the sky. The project leader says the mist-generating machine would need to be scaled up by a <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Asia-s-climate-crisis/The-climate-moonshot-engineering-the-earth">factor of ten</a>, to about 3,000 nozzles, to brighten nearby clouds by 30%.</p>
<p>After years of trials, the project has not yet produced peer-reviewed empirical evidence that cloud brightening could reduce sea surface temperatures or protect corals from bleaching.</p>
<p>The Great Barrier Reef is the size of Italy. Scaling up attempts at cloud brightening would require up to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02290-3">1,000 machines on boats</a>, all pumping and spraying vast amounts of seawater for months during summer. Even if it worked, the operation is hardly, as its proponents claim, “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/cloud-brightening-could-save-bleached-great-barrier-reef-scientists-say-20170426-gvsfxw.html">environmentally benign</a>”.</p>
<p>The technology’s effects remain unclear. For the Great Barrier Reef, less sunlight and lower temperatures <a href="http://www.gesamp.org/publications/high-level-review-of-a-wide-range-of-proposed-marine-geoengineering-techniques">could alter</a> water movement and mixing, harming marine life. Marine life may also be killed by pumps or negatively affected by the additional noise pollution. And on land, marine cloud brightening may <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3393062/">lead to</a> altered rainfall patterns and increased salinity, damaging agriculture.</p>
<p>More broadly, 101 governments last year <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/MeetingSummaries/Pages/LC-45-LP-18.aspx">agreed to a statement</a> describing marine-based geoengineering, including cloud brightening, as having “the potential for deleterious effects that are widespread, long-lasting or severe”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-we-know-about-last-years-top-10-wild-australian-climatic-events-from-fire-and-flood-combos-to-cyclone-driven-extreme-rain-224614">What we know about last year's top 10 wild Australian climatic events – from fire and flood combos to cyclone-driven extreme rain</a>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_LmV94WSkmc?wmode=transparent&start=7" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A cloud brightening field trip in 2021 (Southern Cross University)</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Balls, bubbles and foams</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.arcticiceproject.org/approach/">Arctic Ice Project</a> involves spreading a layer of tiny glass spheres over large regions of sea ice to brighten its surface and halt ice loss.</p>
<p>Trials have been conducted <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018EF000820">on frozen lakes in North America</a>. Scientists recently showed the spheres actually <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF002815">absorb some sunlight</a>, speeding up sea-ice loss in some conditions.</p>
<p>Another proposed intervention is spraying the ocean with <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD024201">microbubbles</a> or <a href="https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10046949/">sea foam</a> to make the surface more reflective. This would introduce large concentrations of <a href="http://www.gesamp.org/publications/high-level-review-of-a-wide-range-of-proposed-marine-geoengineering-techniques">chemicals</a> to stabilise bubbles or foam at the sea surface, posing significant risk to marine life, ecosystem function and fisheries. </p>
<h2>No more distractions</h2>
<p>Some scientists investigating solar geoengineering discuss the need for “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2118379119">exit ramps</a>” – the termination of research once a proposed intervention is deemed to be technically infeasible, too risky or socially unacceptable. We believe this point has already been reached.</p>
<p>Since 2022, more than 500 scientists from 61 countries have signed an open letter calling for an international <a href="https://www.solargeoeng.org/non-use-agreement/open-letter/">non-use agreement</a> on solar geoengineering. Aside from the types of risks discussed above, the letter said the speculative technologies detract from the urgent need to cut global emissions, and that no global governance system exists to fairly and effectively regulate their deployment.</p>
<p>Calls for outdoor experimentation of the technologies are misguided and detract energy and resources from what we need to do today: phase out fossil fuels and accelerate a just transition worldwide.</p>
<p>Climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity, and global responses have been woefully inadequate. Humanity must not pursue <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/comment/overshoot-commissions-veneer-of-neutrality-is-solar-radiation-modification-pr-by-stealth">dangerous distractions</a> that do nothing to tackle the root causes of climate change, come with incalculable risk, and will likely further delay climate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Kerry is an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at James Cook University, Australia, and Senior Marine and Climate Scientist for the non-governmental organisation, OceanCare, Switzerland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aarti Gupta is a professor of global environmental governance at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, and a signatory to the academic Open Letter calling for an 'International Non-Use Agreement on Solar Geoengineering'. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Hughes receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>A UN meeting this week considered a motion on a suite of technologies known as ‘solar radiation modification’, but no consensus could be reached on the controversial topic.James Kerry, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, James Cook University, Australia and Senior Marine and Climate Scientist, OceanCare, Switzerland, James Cook UniversityAarti Gupta, Professor of Global Environmental Governance, Wageningen UniversityTerry Hughes, Distinguished Professor, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240542024-02-29T21:22:20Z2024-02-29T21:22:20ZThermal networks: The missing infrastructure we need to help enable carbon-free heating<p>Most of us who live in the Northern Hemisphere have a fundamental problem: we want to reduce our carbon emissions, but we also need to heat our homes.</p>
<p>The good news is there is a way to do both by creating thermal networks. A thermal network is a system of insulated, underground pipes that directly distribute heat to homes and other buildings using heat generated from clean sources — including nuclear reactors.</p>
<p>Rather than using their own furnaces, boilers, fireplaces or electric baseboard heaters to heat buildings, consumers would receive heat directly from a utility. </p>
<p>It’s an opportunity that is set to grow as Canada expands its nuclear energy supply and creates more heat in the process, especially with <a href="https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Canadian-government-launches-SMR-support-programme">small modular reactors</a> expected to start coming on-stream in the next decade.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">Are small nuclear reactors the solution to Canada’s net-zero ambitions?</a>
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<h2>Scaling up</h2>
<p>Our research collaboration has produced — with the help of experts from McMaster University, The Boltzmann Institute and Canadian Nuclear Association — a <a href="https://www.eng.mcmaster.ca/mcmaster-institute-for-energy-studies/featured-publications/#thermal-networks-position-paper">position paper</a> presenting the case for large-scale thermal networks to be created across Canada, with nuclear power plants potentially providing up to half of the heat. </p>
<p>Similar technology using heat from non-nuclear sources is <a href="https://cieedacdb.rem.sfu.ca/district-energy-inventory">already a reality in Canada</a> in the form of <a href="https://toolkit.bc.ca/tool/district-energy-systems-2/">district energy systems</a>. </p>
<p>Many buildings in <a href="https://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/ceedc/publications/facilities/CEEDC%20-%20District%20Energy%20Report%202023.pdf">Toronto, Hamilton, Vancouver</a> and on university campuses, such as McMaster University, are served by hot water or steam-based central heating plants, using heat that is purpose-made and piped across campus. What’s more, Canada already <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/interactive/2021/toronto-deep-latke-water-cooling-raptors/">leads the world in district cooling networks</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of the basic principle of Toronto’s Deep Lake Water Cooling System produced by the Canada Green Building Council. Thermal networks will move thermal energy similar to the way networked water pipes do, except they will move heat from producer to consumer across a shared system.</span></figcaption>
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<p><a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/04/1080795/us-thermal-energy-networks/">Thirteen states in the United States</a> are implementing a thermal networks utility model. In <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/opinion/district-heating-and-cooling-is-one-of-europes-top-solution-to-reduce-fossil-imports-but-we-need-decisive-eu-action-to-tap-into-this-potential/">Europe</a>, 67 million people enjoy heating from thermal networks and district heating systems supplied by a variety of sources in a mix that is increasingly <a href="https://vbn.aau.dk/en/publications/heat-roadmap-europe-4-quantifying-the-impact-of-low-carbon-heatin">less reliant on carbon</a>.</p>
<p>The idea is catching on, and it’s time to scale up.</p>
<h2>Leftover heat</h2>
<p>As many as 70 per cent of Canadians live in communities that could be warmed by thermal networks. The networks would deliver heated water that warms buildings in the same way household radiators distribute heat — but on a much <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.12.001">larger public scale</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/zibi-waste-heat-recovery-1.7117832">Such systems</a> are capable of efficiently sending heat through buried pipelines to homes, schools, hospitals, office buildings, shopping malls and other structures, greatly reducing the demand for electricity and heating fuel and making space on the electrical grid to accommodate growing electricity demand from electric vehicle chargers and heat pumps. </p>
<p>One of the most appealing aspects of this opportunity is that most of the required heat is already available and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121291">going unused</a>. Heat from major sources, such as <a href="https://www.powermag.com/district-heating-supply-from-nuclear-power-plants/">nuclear power plants</a>, can be transmitted as far as 100 km to where it is needed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-nuclear-reactor-gentilly-2-1.6932355">Québec</a>, <a href="https://www.opg.com/releases/capital-power-and-opg-partner-to-advance-new-nuclear-in-alberta/">Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick</a> are all considering building new or re-starting existing reactors. Together with existing reactors, much of Canada’s population would fall within this range.</p>
<p>In the case of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119546">reactors</a>, thermal networks could share their useful leftover heat instead of releasing it into the environment as is typically done today. This water, used in coiling, gathers heat but does not come into contact with nuclear material and is in no way contaminated. </p>
<p>The recent joint declaration at the <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_88702/countries-launch-joint-declaration-to-triple-nuclear-energy-capacity-by-2050-at-cop28">UN climate conference COP28</a> to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 means there will be significantly more heat from large reactors, such as the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-darlington-nuclear-plant-1.6899969">new nuclear fleet proposed in Ontario</a>, which could supply warmth to homes in the Greater Toronto Area.</p>
<p><a href="https://smrroadmap.ca/">Small modular reactors</a>, which are expected to come on-stream widely as local alternatives to fuel-burning sources of electricity, could supply heat locally while also generating revenue from heat that would otherwise be wasted.</p>
<p>Alternatively, residual heat from <a href="https://www.ngif.ca/harvest-systems-successfully-demonstrates-waste-heat-recovery-from-pizza-pizza-ovens/">restaurants</a>, commercial and industrial processes, water heated by solar or geothermal energy, or the combustion of dried biomass can do exactly the same thing with <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/March/Integrating-low-temperature-renewables-in-district-energy-systems">little to no greenhouse gas emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>Funding the change</h2>
<p>Though our appetite for thermal networks is growing, apprehension over the cost of creating large-scale public systems has stifled enthusiasm for implementing them here.</p>
<p>Certainly, the challenge of laying new pipelines to every urban home is daunting, but that need not be a barrier. It’s not that long ago that water, electricity and natural gas were not delivered directly to homes and other buildings, either. </p>
<p>The managers of those utilities, both public and private, developed efficient methods for deployment, balanced the <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/UTAustin_FCe_History_2016.pdf">cost of their infrastructure</a> over decades and included the financing costs in customers’ bills. All of these techniques could help build thermal networks across Canada. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-reuse-waste-energy-to-achieve-net-zero-heating-systems-209416">Why we need to reuse waste energy to achieve net-zero heating systems</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.cga.ca/energy-magazine-post/when-was-canadas-natural-gas-distribution-system-built-and-what-is-it-made-of/">Natural gas only started to become commonly available in Canada</a> in the 1950s, with networks of buried pipes being extended to the most populated areas of the country through the 1980s. <a href="https://brilliantio.com/how-were-homes-heated-in-the-1960s/">Before then</a>, people had oil, coal or wood delivered, or used electricity from coal-fired plants — all of them significant sources of greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>The conversion made heating <a href="https://www.fortisbc.com/services/natural-gas-services/considering-upgrading-to-gas-up-to-2700-in-appliance-rebates-available-for-a-limited-time/annual-fuel-cost-comparison">cheaper and cleaner</a>. It <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/canadas-energy-transition/canadas-energy-transition-historical-future-changes-energy-systems-update-energy-market-assessment-global-energy.html">halved our carbon emissions</a>. It required a huge effort, but it happened, and it can happen again.</p>
<p>Thermal networks present an opportunity to harvest heat from natural sources or <a href="https://futurium.ec.europa.eu/en/urban-agenda/energy-transition/library/action-2-recommendation-paper-maximising-use-waste-heat-cities">heat that would otherwise be wasted</a> and use it for a vital purpose of keeping Canadians warm while helping to reduce carbon emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Cotton is the founder and CEO of Harvest Systems Inc. He receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Ontario Centre of Innovation and Boltzmann Institute. </span></em></p>Underground thermal networks have the potential to revolutionize how Canadians heat their homes while helping to reduce carbon emissions.James (Jim) S. Cotton, Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245812024-02-28T22:31:32Z2024-02-28T22:31:32ZHow climate change is messing up the ocean’s biological clock, with unknown long-term consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578761/original/file-20240228-30-1ljbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3199%2C2400&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A satellite image of a phytoplankton bloom off the coast of St. John's, N.L.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(NASA, MODIS Rapid Response)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year in the <a href="https://www.ncesc.com/geographic-faq/what-is-the-middle-and-lower-latitude/">mid-latitudes</a> of the planet, a peculiar phenomenon known as the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Phytoplankton">phytoplankton</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13858">spring bloom</a> occurs. Visible from space, spectacular large and ephemeral filament-like shades of green and blue are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052756">shaped by the ocean currents</a>.</p>
<p>The phytoplankton blooms are comprised of a myriad of microscopic algae cells growing and accumulating at the ocean’s surface as a result of the onset of longer days and fewer storms — often associated with the move into spring.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-induced-stress-is-altering-fish-hormones-with-huge-repercussions-for-reproduction-213140">How climate change-induced stress is altering fish hormones — with huge repercussions for reproduction</a>
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<p>The timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom is, however, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13886">likely to be altered</a> in response to climate change. Changes which will affect — for good or ill — the many species that are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-052913-021325">ecologically adapted</a> to benefit from the enhanced feeding opportunity that blooms represent at crucial stages of their development.</p>
<h2>Fine-tuned ecological adaptation</h2>
<p>Phytoplankton blooms are, in some aspects, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14650">metronomes of the annual oceanic cycles</a> around which many species’ biological clocks are synced to.</p>
<p>One example is the zooplankton <a href="https://zooplankton.nl/en/diversity/copepods/"><em>Calanus finmarchicus</em></a>, a class of micro-organism only capable of swimming up and down through the water column. <em>Calanus finmarchicus</em> usually spend the winter in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060505">diapause</a> — the marine version of hibernation — surviving on their accumulated energy reserves in the deep ocean. At the moment they deem appropriate in the spring, they raise from the abyss to graze on the bloom and reproduce.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image of a Calanoid Copepod." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578760/original/file-20240228-7861-gu0ol7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An image of an individual in the Calanoid Copepod group. The Calanoid Copepod is one of three groups of animals within the general category of Copepods, encompassing around 10,000 species. The Calanus finmarchicus is a member of the Calanoid Copepods group.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fish and shellfish, too, are adapted to this natural metronome. </p>
<p>For some species, such as shrimp, females strategically lay their eggs in the water in advance of these blooms so their young will have ample food supplies from the moment they hatch</p>
<p>As incredible as it seems, some species can “calculate” the egg incubation period so that eggs hatch on average <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1173951">within a week</a> of the expected spring bloom.</p>
<h2>A question of timing</h2>
<p>This, unfortunately, is where climate change is entering into the equation. What was normal in the past may well be changing more rapidly than marine species can adapt. </p>
<p>Zooplankton and fish larvae constitutes the bulk of what ocean scientists call secondary production. Secondary production is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/f2012-050">key trophic level</a> that links primary production (the phytoplankton using the sun’s light to produce biomass) and higher trophic levels, such as fish and marine mammals.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite image of a phytoplankton bloom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578762/original/file-20240228-30-q7p1qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=762&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A massive phytoplankton bloom seen off the Northern coast of Norway. Phytoplankton blooms can reach thousands of square kilometres in size.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(ESA, Envisat Pillars)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>This grand relationship is known as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.08.010">trophic cascade</a>, as the zooplankton are eaten by the small fish and the small fish, in turn, are eaten by the bigger fish. A whole ecosystem beating on a clock largely determined by the timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom, hopefully in sync with the biological clocks of other species.</p>
<p>Any change to the timing of the spring bloom, for example as a result of climate change, can potentially have catastrophic consequences for the survival of zooplankton populations alongside the fishes and ecosystems which rely upon this abundant foodstuff. </p>
<p>This theory is known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2881(08)60202-3">match/mismatch hypothesis</a> and postulates that the consumer’s energy demand should “match” the peak resource availability</p>
<h2>A new understanding</h2>
<p>On the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf in the Northwest Atlantic, the spring bloom <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20102">generally starts</a> earlier in the south (mid-March on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland) and later in the north (late April on the southern Labrador shelf).</p>
<p>The south-to-north progression of the bloom was long believed to be related to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbm035">annual retreat of sea ice</a> in the region.
But with the duration and spatial extent of the sea ice season being <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/mpo-dfo/Fs97-6-3544-eng.pdf">dramatically reduced</a> in Atlantic Canada over the recent years, the relationship between sea ice and the timing of the bloom weakened.</p>
<p>I — alongside a team of researchers from across Canada — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10347">proposed a new theory</a> to explain the initiation of the spring bloom on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf. </p>
<p>Our theory points to transition from winter to spring as being key to trigger the bloom. In winter, cold and stormy conditions keep the ocean well mixed. However, the arrival of spring brings calmer winds and warming temperatures — coupled with increased freshwater flows. These conditions cause the ocean to reorganize into layers of different density — a phenomenon called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbv021">re-stratification</a>.</p>
<p>Re-stratification effectively prevents the phytoplankton cells of the upper layers from becoming easily mixed in the maelstrom of oceanic forces.
Their accumulation at the ocean’s surface creates the bloom.</p>
<p>This new mechanism successfully predicts the timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom over more than two decades. It also allows us to better understand the impacts that climate change is having upon our oceans.</p>
<h2>Ecological significance</h2>
<p>Located at the confluence of sub-arctic and sub-tropical ocean currents, the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf is naturally subjected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1807-2021">large fluctuations</a> of its climate, with impacts on the timing of the bloom.</p>
<p>Our study has shown that a warmer climate is associated with earlier re-stratification, earlier phytoplankton blooms and a higher abundance of key zooplankton species such as <em>Calanus finmarchicus</em> in the region.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-further-reducing-fish-stocks-with-worrisome-implications-for-global-food-supplies-217428">Climate change is further reducing fish stocks with worrisome implications for global food supplies</a>
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<p>This discovery opens the door to a better understanding of bloom dynamics and the oceanic conditions driving the health of the ecosystem.</p>
<p>The good news for a cold region such as the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf is that a warmer climate with milder springs, like the ones we have <a href="https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ResDocs-DocRech/2022/2022_040-eng.html">seen in recent years</a>, will lead to more and more abundant levels of phytoplankton — with clear benefits to ecosystem productivity. </p>
<p>However, for how long these changes will remain positive in a changing climate we cannot say.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frédéric Cyr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent research sheds light on the ocean’s annual ‘biological clock’ and highlights the key dynamics that make it susceptible to climate change.Frédéric Cyr, Adjunct Professor, Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of NewfoundlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208332024-02-27T21:50:30Z2024-02-27T21:50:30ZThe importance of critical minerals should not condone their extraction at all costs<p>Global warming is real and climate change is worsening day-by-day with <a href="https://theconversation.com/zombie-fires-are-occurring-more-frequently-in-boreal-forests-but-their-impacts-remain-uncertain-198459">raging forest fires</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-global-warming-is-reshaping-winter-life-in-canada-222329">unseasonably warm winters</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/warmer-wetter-wilder-38-million-people-in-the-great-lakes-region-are-threatened-by-climate-change-170195">flooding disasters</a> taking place across Canada. Meanwhile, the carbon-zero transition required to move away from such a dire future is hampered by a key weakness — “critical minerals.” </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/raising-ambition/renewable-energy-transition">energy transition</a> depends on so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-02330-0">“battery” or “critical”</a> minerals to be successful — minerals which must be mined or recycled. Smart phones, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/ammto/critical-minerals-and-materials#:%7E:text=Lithium%2C%20cobalt%2C%20and%20high%2D,and%20germanium%20used%20in%20semiconductors.">superconductor chips</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113938">renewable energy technologies</a> and even the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/us-geological-survey-releases-2022-list-critical-minerals">defence industry</a> all rely heavily upon critical minerals. Demand for these minerals is set to <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c7716240-ab4f-4f5d-b138-291e76c6a7c7/CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.pdf">triple by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>However, the uncomfortable reality is that the supply of these metals is simply not there, and their extraction carries huge social and ecological risks. This problem affects us all.</p>
<h2>What are critical minerals?</h2>
<p>There is no universal consensus on what critical minerals are. Various countries and bodies such as the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023">International Energy Agency</a> or the <a href="https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/961711588875536384/Minerals-for-Climate-Action-The-Mineral-Intensity-of-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pdf">World Bank</a> have different lists and the contents of these lists do not remain static. </p>
<p>For instance, the <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/nrcan/files/mineralsmetals/pdf/Critical_Minerals_List_2021-EN.pdf">Canadian Critical Minerals List</a> contains 31 minerals or mineral groups. The United States has two lists: the <a href="https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/2022%20Final%20List%20of%20Critical%20Minerals%20Federal%20Register%20Notice_2222022-F.pdf">U.S. Geological Survey Critical Minerals List</a> that contains 50 individual minerals and the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/preprint-frn-2023-critical-materials-list.pdf">Department of Energy Critical Materials for Energy List</a>, which adds energy materials like copper and silicon. The European Union has a list of 34 <a href="https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/critical-raw-materials_en">Critical Raw Materials</a>.</p>
<p>The term “critical mineral” is technically a misnomer as most of the elements on these lists are metals and not minerals. However, there are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2023.101402">broad areas of agreement</a>: most lists include battery metals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper, as well as rare earth elements and platinum group metals. Other common elements are the alloys of steel, such as chromium, manganese and zinc. </p>
<p>All of these elements are crucial to the energy transition. Battery metals power electric vehicles and storage batteries, steel and rare earth elements are imperative for wind turbines and copper is essential for power grids. Simply put, shortages in critical minerals mean a delayed energy transition and worsening <a href="https://www.irena.org/Energy-Transition/Outlook">climate impacts</a>.</p>
<p>Yet electric vehicles are only as “clean” as the electricity grid that feeds them. They are only as “green” as their component parts. The batteries require nickel, which could well have come from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.102997">a mine in the Philippines that legally dumps its tailings (toxic waste) in oceans</a>. Meanwhile, the vital cobalt can’t be separated from the human miseries of mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo — a mining industry referred to as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2020.11.018">a new form of slavery, a subterranean slavery</a>.”</p>
<h2>Why are critical minerals problematic?</h2>
<p>Critical minerals are often found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.001">in deposits that are highly concentrated geographically</a>, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103336">China is a dominant force</a> in their processing and supply. This means that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104587">geopolitical tensions</a> can make it harder to secure <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/building-larger-and-more-diverse-supply-chains-energy-minerals#:%7E:text=Critical%20Minerals%20in%20the%20Energy%20Sector&text=Lithium%2C%20nickel%2C%20cobalt%2C%20copper,needed%20in%20significantly%20greater%20supply.">critical mineral supply chains</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Securing_Minerals_for_the_Energy_Transition_2023.pdf">December 2023 World Economic Forum White Paper</a> maps ecosystem risks arising from a lack of supply in critical minerals. Its conclusions are clear.</p>
<p>Not only does a <a href="https://meetings.imf.org/en/IMF/Home/Blogs/Articles/2021/11/10/soaring-metal-prices-may-delay-energy-transition">delayed energy transition</a> await us at the end of the road, but the signposts along the way indicate that these risks are already playing out.</p>
<p>For instance, political risks identified include <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104475">conflict over resources</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103101">increasing resource nationalism</a> and increasing <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/bank-of-england-takes-deep-dive-into-opaque-commodities/">trade fragmentation</a>. Among the economic risks are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106934">market volatility and uncertainty</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/germany-invests-1-1bn-to-counter-china-on-raw-materials">stockpiling</a> of critical minerals. </p>
<p>Socio-environmental risks comprise an <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/amazon-gold-miners-flout-artisanal-label-with-outsized-operations/">increase in exploitative and illegal mining</a> and a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103718">higher demand on ecosystems</a>, while technological risks point to cascading <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/resources8010029">renewable technology shortages</a>.</p>
<h2>The impacts of critical minerals mining</h2>
<p>When considering the implications of minerals shortages, it may be tempting to justify critical minerals mining at all costs, however, this is a dangerous fallacy. The <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43012/minerals_africa.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y#:%7E:text=Critical%20mineral%20extraction%20and%20processing,crucial%20to%20mitigate%20these%20impacts.">social and environmental impacts</a> of poorly mined critical minerals are dire.</p>
<p>These range from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120838">lithium’s water intensity</a> in the fragile landscapes of the Chilean Atacama desert to the toxic processes inherent in the processing of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09603123.2017.1415307">rare earth elements</a> whose use is ubiquitous in smart technology and wind turbines. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1144/sp526-2022-172">Diminishing ore grades</a> mean ever bigger tailings dams, and climate change makes them more prone to accidents.</p>
<p>For Indigenous communities, <a href="https://chamber.ca/critical-minerals-can-create-transformative-economic-opportunities-for-indigenous-communities-if-we-do-it-right/">critical minerals hold both promise</a> and peril. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104448">Studies have shown</a> that critical minerals are often heavily concentrated on Indigenous lands. For them, the question arises whether this will open the door to <a href="https://www.mining.com/british-columbias-nisgaa-nation-plans-indigenous-majority-owned-royalty-company/">Indigenous economic development</a> or if it will constitute yet another instance of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102665">displacement and ecological destruction</a> on their doorstep.</p>
<p>The importance of independent standards authorities such as the <a href="https://responsiblemining.net">Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance</a> (IRMA) cannot be overemphasized. In contrast to industry standards such as <a href="https://mining.ca/towards-sustainable-mining/">Towards Sustainable Mining</a>, IRMA represents multiple stakeholder views. These include communities, employees, investors and mines.</p>
<p>Mining is by its very nature a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-020-00242-3">highly energy intensive</a> process. While it is expensive and technically complex to retrofit existing mines for electrification purposes, new mines should be designed with carbon neutrality in mind. Of course, this can be particularly difficult in places that are experiencing <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1089391">infrastructure challenges</a>, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.12789/geocanj.2023.50.199">limited renewable or low carbon energy options</a>.</p>
<p>Greenfield mining is not the sole solution to the critical minerals conundrum. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107181">Urban mining</a> (extraction from electronic waste) can play an important role. It’s also important to design products manufactured from critical minerals with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-022-00181-x">recycling and repurposing</a> in mind. </p>
<p>By investing in research and development, we can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acscentsci.3c01478">find substitutes</a> to the most problematic minerals, whether the underlying issues are geopolitical constraints, toxicity or human rights abuses.</p>
<h2>The bottom line</h2>
<p>At the end of the day, we need responsible mining practices that will enable us to obtain the minerals required to make the energy transition work. However, we must do so in a way that is just and equitable towards both people and the planet. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-innovation-isnt-just-good-for-the-climate-its-also-good-for-the-economy-223164">Renewable energy innovation isn't just good for the climate — it's also good for the economy</a>
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<p>This goal is a race against time, requiring both innovation and a never-ending vigilance against a lowering of standards to meet short-term needs — a vigilance which we all must work to maintain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220833/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Steyn previously received funding from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). She is affiliated with the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC), the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (CIM) and the Foundation for Natural Resources and Energy Law (FNREL). She is a board member of the Canadian Institute of Resources Law (CIRL). </span></em></p>The temptation to justify critical minerals mining at all costs is a dangerous fallacy. The social and environmental impacts of poorly mined critical minerals are dire.Elizabeth Steyn, Assistant Professor of Law, Faculty of Law, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232072024-02-22T03:21:11Z2024-02-22T03:21:11ZSentinels of the sea: ancient boulder corals are key to reef survival in a warmer world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574821/original/file-20240212-20-avdzaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5568%2C3700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Giacomo d Orlando </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Seas surrounding Australia this month hit an <a href="https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_baa5-max-7d_v3.1_seel_current.png">alarming level</a> of warming. It comes on the back of serious <a href="https://research.noaa.gov/2023/06/28/global-ocean-roiled-by-marine-heatwaves-with-more-on-the-way/">marine heatwaves</a> in the Northern Hemisphere summer.</p>
<p>Such warming is <a href="https://floridakeys.noaa.gov/corals/climatethreat.html#:%7E:text=Rising%20(or%20even%20falling)%20water,the%20coral%20turns%20completely%20white.">highly dangerous</a> for corals. Every <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-animal-021122-093315">half a degree</a> of ocean warming increases their risk of bleaching and potential death.</p>
<p>The best long-term strategy to protecting Earth’s coral reefs is to dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions and so limit global warming. But in the meantime, we must urgently make corals more resilient and protect those that are vulnerable.</p>
<p>That is particularly true for the huge, ancient features of reefs known as boulder corals. Research suggests they will be a vital part of reef survival in a warmer world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map of Australia surrounded by patches of yellow, red and purple" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576928/original/file-20240221-26-asgzx0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576928/original/file-20240221-26-asgzx0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576928/original/file-20240221-26-asgzx0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576928/original/file-20240221-26-asgzx0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576928/original/file-20240221-26-asgzx0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576928/original/file-20240221-26-asgzx0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576928/original/file-20240221-26-asgzx0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An image showing various levels of bleaching alert around Australia as of February 19, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA Coral Reef Watch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The old-growth trees of the sea</h2>
<p>Boulder corals (<em>Porites</em>) can grow to more than <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-90-481-2639-2_273#:%7E:text=Porites%20has%20attracted%20the%20attention,10%20m%20(indeterminate%20growth).">10m high</a> and live for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/brv.12391">more than 600 years</a>. In Australia they are often referred to as “bommies”. Each bommie can comprise multiple species, but they’re often a single massive individual.</p>
<p>The corals <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534716000574?via%3Dihub">play a crucial role</a> in reefs, including providing habitat for marine life. Importantly, they can <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1716643115">maintain these functions</a> even when other coral species are absent.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40150-3">Some species</a> are thought to be <a href="https://www.int-res.com/articles/meps2011/434/m434p067.pdf">resistant to stress</a>. Old corals have <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0351-2">likely experienced</a>
– and survived – past warming episodes, proving <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq8349">their resilience</a>.</p>
<p>For example, a paper in 2021 described a giant boulder coral discovered on the Great Barrier Reef which <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-94818-w">was thought to be</a> more than 400 years old. It has survived 80 major cyclones, numerous coral bleaching events and centuries of exposure to other threats.</p>
<p>This resilience can benefit the whole reef ecosystem. We can think of boulder corals as akin to old-growth trees in a forest. Just like forests containing big, old trees are <a href="https://theconversation.com/contrary-to-common-belief-some-forests-get-more-fire-resistant-with-age-95059">more resistent</a> <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26267895#:%7E:text=The%20adaptations%20of%20large%20trees,to%20withstand%20and%20survive%20fire.">to fire</a>, studies show a mix of different growth forms, including old and large boulder corals, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01037-2">fare better</a> in the long-term under marine warming. </p>
<p>Older and bigger corals may also produce <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ecy.1588?casa_token=tFnyWSTHmk0AAAAA:RkR06I_gTJk6p3vOCCdJdwku2CXO5tpUsChBn5_Nmhxfojl11fVg4uibQsWM4JFigd3dXzUYl_H8">more offspring</a>, so can more rapidly replenish the reef after disturbances.</p>
<p>Clearly, as our oceans face unprecedented pressures under climate change, we must protect – and learn from – these sentinels of the sea.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snorkellers-discover-rare-giant-400-year-old-coral-one-of-the-oldest-on-the-great-barrier-reef-166278">Snorkellers discover rare, giant 400-year-old coral – one of the oldest on the Great Barrier Reef</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Preparing for the challenges ahead</h2>
<p>Understanding boulder corals is crucial to predicting how they might cope under climate change, and planning for their protection.</p>
<p>But scientists still have much to learn about boulder corals. In particular, we <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-023-02319-y">don’t know</a> exactly how many species exist, their life histories and how they evolved. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I are aiming to overcome this knowledge gap. We are studying reefs across Australia, with a particular focus on boulder corals at Ningaloo Reef off Western Australia.</p>
<p>We are creating maps of what species of boulder corals exist and where they are located. And using cutting-edge <a href="https://threatenedspeciesinitiative.com/">genomics technology</a>, such as DNA sequencing, we are measuring the tolerance of each species to warming and trying to predict when they will reproduce. </p>
<p>Importantly, we are also examining the mutually beneficial relationship between the corals and algae. This relationship provides algae with shelter, gives corals their colour and provides nutrients to both partners. It may also be a <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-75393-5_6">main factor</a> in coral resistance to warmer temperatures.</p>
<p>So far, we have found more diversity than initially expected. This is exciting because it may signal an increased capacity to resist different types of stress. But the work to fully map Ningaloo’s coral diversity has only just begun.</p>
<p>We hope our findings, once finalised, can inform local community management actions such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>public education campaigns and signs</li>
<li>managing visitor numbers to reefs</li>
<li>installing public moorings to reduce harm from boat anchoring, especially during coral spawning.</li>
</ul>
<p>The information can also be used in broader management actions such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>establishing “baseline” conditions from which to measure change</li>
<li>zoning decisions, including the establishment or ramping up of of marine park protections, especially for resilient coral species and individuals</li>
<li>impact assessments following events such as heatwaves</li>
<li>direct conservation actions for iconic, at-risk bommies, such as providing shade to diminish stress from heat</li>
<li>the development of national reef management plans.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/photos-from-the-field-why-losing-these-tiny-loyal-fish-to-climate-change-spells-disaster-for-coral-167119">Photos from the field: why losing these tiny, loyal fish to climate change spells disaster for coral</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Something worth fighting for</h2>
<p>The stress to coral wrought by recent marine heatwaves compounds damage incurred over decades. The Great Barrier Reef, for example, has <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-major-heatwaves-in-30-years-have-turned-the-great-barrier-reef-into-a-bleached-checkerboard-170719">experienced five</a> major heatwaves in 30 years. </p>
<p>Broadly, making reefs more resilient to these pressures involves:</p>
<ul>
<li>resisting, recovering, managing and adapting to shocks across ecosystems</li>
<li>improving governance structures</li>
<li>preparing human communities for change. </li>
</ul>
<p>Awareness of the need to increase reef resilience is growing. For example, it formed the basis of a 2017 <a href="https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/bitstream/11017/3287/1/GBRMPA%20Blueprint%20for%20Resilience%20-%20Low%20Res.pdf">blueprint</a> for the Great Barrier Reef and a <a href="https://www.barrierreef.org/uploads/Ningaloo-Strategy-v230216.pdf">strategy</a> for the Ningaloo Coast released last year.
But more work is required. </p>
<p>There’s also a need for coordination across Australia’s reef areas. This might include the exchange of knowledge and data between researchers and combined lobbying efforts to better protect reef ecosystems.</p>
<p>What’s more, Traditional Owners must be offered the opportunity to be consulted about, and meaningfully engaged in, protection of reef areas, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-strike-australias-precious-world-heritage-sites-and-indigenous-knowledge-is-a-key-defence-222393?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1707258796-1">co-management of Sea Country</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://australiancoralreefsociety.org">Australian Coral Reef Society</a>, of which I am a councillor, last week released <a href="https://australiancoralreefsociety.org/acrs-letter-calling-parliament-reduce-atmospheric-carbon/">an open letter</a> to the federal government, calling for action on climate change to protect reefs. The task has never been more urgent. </p>
<p>There is still a lot of reef worth fighting for – but only if we act now.</p>
<p><em>The author would like to acknowledge the contribution of Ningaloo marine park managers – in particular, Dr Peter Barnes – to the research she and her colleagues are undertaking.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Quigley receives funding from the Australian Research Council in the form of the Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) and holds a joint position as Principal Research Scientist at Minderoo Foundation, a philanthropic organisation.</span></em></p>The best strategy to protecting Earth’s coral reefs is to dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions. But in the meantime, we must urgently make corals more resilient.Kate Marie Quigley, DECRA Research Fellow (James Cook University), Principal Research Scientist (Minderoo Foundation), James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189732024-02-21T21:59:26Z2024-02-21T21:59:26ZThermoelectric technologies can help power a zero-carbon future<p>Thermometers are an under-appreciated marvel of human ingenuity built upon an understanding of relatively simple physical principles. Mercury and alcohol thermometers rely on the volume of liquids growing or shrinking in reaction to temperature change. Contactless <a href="https://www.omega.ca/en/resources/infrared-thermometer-how-work#:%7E:text=Infrared%20thermometers%20employ%20a%20lens,absorbed%20and%20converts%20into%20heat.">infrared thermometers, by contrast, read the thermal radiation emitted by any object, from frying pans to the human body</a>. </p>
<p>While digital thermometers, such as infrared, are a relatively recent invention other types <a href="https://www.whipplemuseum.cam.ac.uk/explore-whipple-collections/meteorology/early-thermometers-and-temperature-scales">have been around for hundreds of years</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.omega.com/en-us/resources/how-thermocouples-work">There is, however, another type of digital thermometer known as a thermocouple. Thermocouples are commonly used in industrial applications</a> and leverage a natural phenomenon whereby the meeting of two different temperatures generates electrical current. This principle can be used both to measure temperatures and, more excitingly, to actually harvest useful electricity from everyday temperature changes. I am part of a team working to help make this technology a practical reality.</p>
<h2>Thermoelectric</h2>
<p>In 1821, <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=1u0ZWscprXkC&printsec=frontcover&redir_esc=y&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false">German physicist Thomas Johann Seebeck</a> observed that a nearby magnetic compass needle was deflected by a closed electrical circuit made of two different metals. Two years later, physicists <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mser.2018.09.001">Hans Christian Ørsted and Jean Baptiste Joseph reported that the interaction of the two metals, once connected in a circuit, had generated an electrical current because one was warmer than the other.</a></p>
<p>This physical phenomenon was later named the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/seebeck-effect">Seebeck Effect</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mser.2018.09.001">Interestingly, Italian physicist Alessandro Volta — in whose honour the term volt is named — had observed and explained the same phenomenon in 1794</a> using nerves from a dead frog. Volta generated an electric current using a metal wire, two glasses of water (each at a different temperature) and the nerves of the frog as an electrical bridge. </p>
<p>A grisly image, but one which foreshadowed future scientific breakthroughs.</p>
<p>Excited at the possibilities, scientists worked to exploit the findings by making and harvesting useful amounts of electric current simply by connecting two materials at different temperatures. Today we call this <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2010/explained-thermoelectricity-0427">thermoelectricity</a>, and we still use it in very specific contexts.</p>
<p>NASA has utilized the advantages of thermoelectric technology to make deep space exploration possible by coupling thermoelectric generators with radioactive material as the fuel.</p>
<p>Launches using radioisotope thermoelectric generators include the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/mission/overview/">Curiosity Mars rover in 2011</a>, <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/25181/nasas-perseverance-rover-launches-to-mars/">the Perseverance in 2020</a>, and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-dragonfly-will-fly-around-titan-looking-for-origins-signs-of-life/">the planned launch of the Dragonfly</a> <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/dragonfly-launch-moved-to-2027/">in 2027 to Saturn’s moon Titan</a>. </p>
<p>This piece of technology even breached the realm of popular culture as a result of its central role in the 2011 novel — and later film of the same name — <em>The Martian</em> by Andy Weir. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ue4PCI0NamI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A trailer for <em>The Martian</em> starring Matt Damon. A radioisotope thermoelectric generator features heavily in the film.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Closer to home</h2>
<p>Here on Earth, <a href="https://www.globalte.com/products/generators/tegs">thermoelectric generators have been used in remote areas to generate electricity</a>. For example, <a href="https://www.sunset.com/travel/camping/camp-stove-charger-biolite">a small thermoelectric module, connected to a portable boiler or stove, can charge your phone while you’re camping at the expense of fuel</a>. This is but a small example; thermoelectric devices could do much more.</p>
<p>Human societies make excessive amounts of heat through numerous processes from cooking, industrial activity to even air conditioning and refrigeration. After these processes are finished, almost all of this heat dissipates without capturing the electricity it could provide. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-reuse-waste-energy-to-achieve-net-zero-heating-systems-209416">Why we need to reuse waste energy to achieve net-zero heating systems</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For example, only about one-third of the energy produced in a gasoline-powered car is used while <a href="https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/how-efficient-is-your-cars-engine">the other two-thirds is lost as heat</a>. That lost heat could be captured to power thermoelectric devices, which would <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-hev.shtml#:%7E:text=Like%20conventional%20gasoline%2Dpowered%20vehicles,the%20engine%2C%20and%20combustion%20inefficiency">dramatically improve fuel efficiency</a>.</p>
<p>We could do the same in factories and in many other places where heat is a wasted by-product of another function. And building these systems would help us <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">reach our net-zero target by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>So, why on Earth (literally) are we not using thermoelectrics to recycle wasted heat?</p>
<p>Simply put, a thermoelectric device requires a material which must conduct electricity well and conduct heat poorly. Without these characteristics the temperature difference, and generative potential, between the two sides of the device will not be maintained.</p>
<p>Copper wire, for example, conducts electricity very well but also is an excellent heat conductor. These qualities make for great wire but also leaves copper as a poor candidate in this application. </p>
<h2>Building the materials</h2>
<p>The ideal materials for thermoelectricity do not exist naturally. As such, the priority in the field of thermoelectric research is to create materials that are both efficient and inexpensive, so they can be mass-produced and widely applied — ideally at minimal resource cost. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1369-7021(11)70278-4">Some known thermoelectric material candidates include lead, however, its toxicity and environmental impacts rules it out as a viable candidate</a>. More benign alternatives must be found.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-bridge-to-nowhere-natural-gas-will-not-lead-canada-to-a-sustainable-energy-future-176734">A bridge to nowhere: Natural gas will not lead Canada to a sustainable energy future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2TC02448A">Currently, a few thermoelectric materials seem to have the potential to help mitigate the climate crisis we are facing.</a></p>
<p>Along with my colleagues at McMaster University, I am working with industrial partners to help develop cheaper, more reliable new materials. Central to this is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intermet.2020.106831">understanding the changes in performance</a> between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/C8DT02521E">various materials</a>. We hope to develop materials which perform well both in the lab, and at scale. </p>
<p>All too often electricity is discussed in terms of how we can generate more. We need more plants, more fuel, more solar — more everything. We suggest that this is only half the picture. We must also learn to smartly utilize all stages of the energy life-cycle to not just generate but also store, and use thermoelectric technology to capture the electricity in that wasted heat. </p>
<p>Only by doing this can we truly make a more efficient power grid and help drive a carbon-free future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chun-wan Timothy Lo was an Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship-Doctoral (CGS-D) holder from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) during the course of his doctoral studies. Lo currently is a program member of the McCall MacBain Postdoctoral Fellows Teaching and Leadership Program from McMaster University. </span></em></p>Human societies produce huge amounts of excess heat. Turning it into electricity could play a key role in achieving a net-zero society.Chun-wan Timothy Lo, McCall MacBain Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.